Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2025 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

There will always be a warm place in my heart for the OG Top 100 Prospects Rankings (I do a full Top 500+ Prospects Rankings in very early February). I remember the good old days when if a prospect didn’t crack a Top 100 Prospects Rankings, they were considered garbage. When a non Top 100 prospect used to break out on the MLB level, people’s heads would explode on how such a “non” prospect could slip through the cracks. And as a writer, if you were able to identify a non Top 100 prospect who was actually good, you were hailed as one of the true geniuses of your time. Times have changed obviously, and now prospect lists can be never ending. A non Top 100 prospect used to be super deep and underrated. Now, a prospect has to be like a non Top 500 prospect to impress people. So before I drop the full Top 500 in a few weeks, let’s lay down some roots with the OG Top 100. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, Prime Projections, and 2025 Projections (if applicable) for every player. Here is the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2025 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

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Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers (free)Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

*I excluded Roki Sasaki from these rankings because I’m sick of putting him first on all of these prospects rankings when he’s really not a prospect, but he would be first if I included him

1) Dylan CrewsWAS, OF, 23.1 – Crews’ dynasty value/hype has seen some fluctuations since being drafted, but the thing that was quietly flying under the radar, was how good he was on the bases, and for fantasy, that has a major impact on his value. He stole 25 bases in 100 games in the upper minors, and then he stole 12 bags with a double plus 29.3 ft/sec sprint in his 31 game MLB debut. He only stole 6 bases in 71 games his junior year of college, and then went 3 for 7 in his pro debut, so I can’t blame anyone for not expecting it, but it’s clearly a real skill he has, and it makes Crews insanely exciting for fantasy again. He combines the speed with above average contact rates (19.7% K%), above average chase rates (26.6%), and plus power (94.7 MPH FB/LD EV in the majors and a 90.2 MPH EV in the minors). The only quibble in his profile is the low launch (8.8 degrees), but he has the skillset to make that work, and he only needs to raise it a bit higher to be in a completely fine range, which I’m betting he will. The Langford vs. Crews debate might not end up as easy as we thought, and with Crews not really being considered in that lofty tier anymore, there could be a buy window here this off-season. If you can buy off the relatively subdued hype and .641 MLB OPS, I would be all over it. He also has a lock on a full time job. He’s my #1 prospect in baseball, and he just ranked 44th overall on A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2025 Projection: 81/21/76/.259/.334/.448/26 Prime Projection: 94/27/97/.278/.359/.481/28

2) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 22.2 – The Yankees didn’t want to unleash Dominguez in the majors lasty year, and his .617 OPS in the 67 PA he did receive isn’t super impressive, but make no mistake, Dominguez is still on the superstar path. His 75.4 MPH swing is straight elite, which proves right there that his talent really wasn’t that overhyped as an international prospect. His 23.4% whiff% was comfortably above average, which is pretty huge to see, and his 28.1% Chase% was slightly above average. Tack on plus speed, and Dominguez’ beastly potential was even able to shine through despite the Yanks refusing to unleash him. And oh yea, he destroyed the upper minors immediately after returning from Tommy John surgery in mid May with a 135 wRC+, 11 homers, 16 steals (in 17 attempts) and a 20.0/8.8 K%/BB% in 58 games. Is he really 22 years old and not like 26 years old? Beats me. But I don’t care when it comes to a talent this huge (I gave my thoughts on MLB cracking down on players’ lying about their ages in the Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Team Report). I see no reason why the Yanks won’t unleash him immediately in 2025, and he could be on a beeline for elite dynasty asset status in short order. Go after him. – 2025 Projection: 83/21/76/.246/.323/.434/26 Prime Projection: 109/28/91/.266/.351/.487/34

3) Kristian Campbell BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 – Campbell possesses one of the most visually disgusting swings I have ever seen, and I mean that in the best way possible. It looks like he literally unhinges his shoulder to turn his body into a cannon, absolutely unfurling on the baseball. Here is what I wrote about a homer Campbell hit in early September in the in-season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns: “on his latest homer, I think he dislocated his shoulder with one of the most bad intentions swings I’ve seen.”  Underscoring my visual evaluation of that explosive shoulder movement is that shortly after that homer he hit the IL with a lat strain, which is right under the shoulder blades. Campbell underwent a well documented swing change and bat speed training to unlock more power last off-season, which was obviously successful beyond anybody’s wildest imagination, so let’s just hope that it’s not going to cause more injuries. That is the only small thing that is even rattling around in my brain as a negative, because the season he just had was nothing short or spectacular. He slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers, 24 steals, and a 19.9/14.3 K%/BB% in 115 games spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He was just as dominant in the upper minors as he was at High-A with across the board domination. He hits it hard, he has a good feel to hit, he has a good approach, he has size (6’3”, 191 pounds), he has bat speed, he can lift it, and he has speed. You can be hesitant to fully buy in because it feels like he came out of nowhere, but he put up a 1.033 OPS in 45 games in the ACC in 2023, a .932 OPS in 58 games in 2022 in the Northwoods League, and then a .911 OPS in 22 games at mostly High-A in his pro debut, so it’s not his fault that everyone underrated him. He always had a good feel to hit and good approach, and he always had the frame and athleticism to tack on more power, so I’m not going to hold it against him that he wasn’t more hyped (4th round pick in 2023). He still didn’t lift and pull the ball a ton with an under 40% Pull% and under 30% FB%, but he knew when to pick his spots (as you saw with that homer video above), and he has the type of profile that can thrive without an extreme lift and pull profile. I’m all in on Campbell. He’s an elite prospect who has a chance to break camp in the bigs. 2025 Projection: 68/16/61/.252/.324/.423/19 Prime Projection: 98/26/89/.277/.356/.478/26

4) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.11 – Because the rule of prospecting is that if you are even the smallest, tiniest, tiny bit lower on a prospect than other prospectors (most have Anthony as the #1 prospect in baseball), you must bash that prospect with an overly critical lens, let me start with the negatives here. For one, Anthony isn’t the best base stealer with a career 38 steals in 52 attempts (he was 21 for 28 last year), so there is risk that he doesn’t run as much in the majors as we hope. Secondly, he hits the ball on the ground a lot with an around 50% GB% in 2024, which could limit his homer upside. And lastly, there is some hit tool risk with a 23.5% K%. Now that we got that out of the way, let me just say that I obviously love Anthony, he’s a legit 50/50 coin flip with Campbell, and he’s a no doubt elite prospect. He started the season as a 19 year old in the upper minors and obliterated both Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .291/.396/.498 with 18 homers, 21 steals, and a 23.5/14.6 K%/BB% in 119 games. He crushes the ball, he has speed, he has size, he has elite age to level production, and he hit both lefties and righties well in 2024. He’s as close to a Gunnar Henderson clone as there is, and if you wanted to put him as the #1 prospect in baseball, I wouldn’t argue with you. He’s going to be a beast. 2025 Projection: 51/13/46/.251/.328/.422/10 Prime Projection: 92/31/98/.272/.363/.493/18

5) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B/2B/SS, 23.4 – The little man discount never fails. Baseball scouts see a little man, and they immediately shave a few inches of projection right off the top. I don’t mind it, because it consistently creates excellent buying opportunities for the right players (see the Chicago Cubs Team Report Dynasty Strategy Section below for more thoughts on this), and Matt Shaw is definitely one of those right players. He went a little later than he should have in the real MLB Draft, then he went a little later than he should have in Dynasty First Year Player Drafts, and now he’s getting ranked a little later than he should be on prospect lists. He’s an elite prospect that gets ranked like a merely good one. He’s under 6’0”, but his bat packs a true punch, putting up an 89.3 MPH EV with a 14.6 degree launch in 35 games at Triple-A. He smoked 21 homers on the season in 121 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a pull machine, but a lot of these lift and pull machines put up some pretty low batting averages, and a profile like Shaw doesn’t need to only pull the ball. He can use his hard hit ability, plus speed (31 steals), and plus contact rates (18.2% K%) to do damage when he goes oppo. He also walks a ton with a 11.9% BB%, making him a likely top of the order bat. Don’t fall into the little man trap, Shaw is going to be a do everything fantasy terror when he gets his shot, and with the Isaac Paredes/Cam Smith trade, that shot could come very early into 2025. Shaw’s been a target for me from before his junior year of college, and he remains a target for me. – 2025 Projection: 71/17/65/.256/.318/.419/22 Prime Projection: 96/23/83/.276/.348/.461/26

6) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.2 – Williams put up a 31.8% K% in 105 games at High-A in 2023, so the worry was that the K rate would explode against upper minors pitching, but that didn’t happen. It actually improved at Double-A with a 28.5% K%, and that was good enough to let his special talent shine. He jacked 20 homers with 33 steals, a 11.5% BB% and a 142 wRC+ in 115 games. He’s a still projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with an explosive righty swing that is made to launch homers. He’s also an excellent athlete with plus speed and plus SS defense. Tampa’s SS job is literally waiting for him, and because of his plus defense, he is sure to have all the leash he can handle even if it takes his hit tool a year or two to adjust to MLB pitching. If he can keep the K% in the high 20’s, he will be a beast, and if he can continue to improve on it at only 21 years old, there is near elite dynasty asset upside. – 2025 Projection: 28/10/35/.230/.300/.424/9 Prime Projection: 89/28/96/.254/.334/.483/23

7) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 18.6 – De Vries is my pick to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year (in a tight race with Walker Jenkins and Sebastian Walcott), that is unless he loses rookie eligibility because San Diego are madmen when it comes to promoting their elite prospects. There are already rumors they are considering calling De Vries and Salas up in 2025, which is straight wild. It did work out for Jackson Merrill, so who am I to judge? Merrill was 20 years old of course while De Vries and Salas are 18, but I love to see a team pushing the limits and setting new upper standards on how fast a prospect can fly through the minors. And De Vries has the type of talent that just might be able to pull it off. He was sent straight to full season ball for his pro debut, and while it took him a few months to find his footing, he went gangbusters once he did, slashing .275/.400/.563 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 20.5/14.9 K%/BB% in his final 40 games. Even with the early struggles, he still put up a 116 wRC+ in 75 games which is just silly for a 17 year old. The thing that separates De Vries from Jenkins, Walcott and De Paula for me, is that there are zero questions about him getting to his raw power. He put up a 32.4% GB%, 49.3% FB%, and 49.5% Pull%. I fully believe those other guys will get to their raw power as well, don’t get me wrong, but De Vries seems to be one step ahead of them in that area. His season ended in mid August with a shoulder injury, but he played in the AFL, and while he didn’t play especially well, it’s still nice to see the shoulder isn’t an issue. He’s an elite prospect right now, and if he doesn’t end up at #1, he won’t be far off. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 91/31/99/.271/.353/.513/20

8) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 20.1 – My Kyle Tucker comp for Jenkins last off-season turned out to be eerily accurate, at least for what they each did in their first full year of pro ball as 19 year old’s. Tucker had 9 homers with 32 steals and a 16.3/10.1 K%/BB% in 117 games in the lower minors, while Jenkins had 6 homers with 17 steals and a 12.8/15.2 K%/BB% in 82 games. Like Jenkins, Tucker also wasn’t a burner, and nobody really expected the steal totals to stick in the majors, but they did. And like Jenkins, the only thing that hadn’t fully developed yet was the power, but Tucker had a monster power explosion the very next season, hitting 25 homers in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. I see no reason why Jenkins can’t have that same power explosion at 6’3”, 210 pounds with one of the sweetest lefty swings this game has ever seen. He doesn’t hit the ball on the ground too much and he can pull it, so while his hard hit numbers weren’t too impressive, they weren’t too bad either, and it would be pretty shocking if he didn’t develop impact power. He’s on a beeline for elite dynasty asset, and he’s among the favorites to be the #1 prospect in baseball by the middle of 2025. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 103/27/96/.282/.365/.504/18

9) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 22.0 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023 and missed the entire 2024 regular season, but he got healthy in time for the AFL, and he’s gone right back to dominating with a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 18/4 K/BB in 15.2 IP over 6 outings. Just seeing that he was able to ramp up and start pitching in games without getting re-injured is a big first step that we can cross off our worry list this off-season. But he’s also proving he is nearly 100% healthy with the plus to double plus fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s. Like we saw with Shane Baz, it seems that breaking ball crispness and consistency can be something that lags behind after Tommy John, but long term the slider projects as plus and he also throws a lesser used curve and change that could end up plus pitches in their own right. If you ignore the injury, he’s basically a perfect pitching prospect with size, athleticism, velocity, double plus fastball, plus secondary, diverse pitch mix, and plus control. And now that we’ve seen him back on the mound and thriving, the injury risk is a bit lessened. He moves back into my top spot among pitching prospects after his AFL performance, but it’s still a tight race with Noah Schultz, who I absolutely love. It was announced the Phillies plan to slow play him in 2025, which his ETA in the majors around July, and if that helps keep him healthy, avoiding the end of season dilemma for a contending team where he’s at his innings limit, I’m all for it. – 2025 Projection: 6/3.68/1.20/86 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 15/2.95/0.91/225 in 180 IP

10) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.8 – Baby Johnson is the #1B pitching prospect in baseball, and while there are other really good contenders (Jobe, Bubba, Kumar), Schultz holds this spot for being absolutely unprecedented. Even the Baby Johnson nickname might not fit, as Randy Johnson had an insane 318 walks in 400.1 minor league IP before getting the call to the bigs. Schultz is 6’9”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball and double plus slider (he also mixes in a cutter and a change). He sliced through the minors with absolutely no problem, putting up a 2.24 ERA with a 32.1/6.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP at mostly Double-A. Having that level of control as a 20/21 year old at that size with that kind of stuff is really mind blowing. He’s not a finished product as he’s yet to eclipse 4 IP in any outing of his career and he needs to continue to work on a good third/fourth pitch, but the combination of floor/upside is simply off the charts. Other than Roki Sasaki (who really shouldn’t be considered a prospect), and Painter now that he’s healthy, there is no other pitching prospect I would take over Schultz. – 2025 Projection: 3/3.71/1.24/82 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.05/1.01/230 in 180 IP

11) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 22.9 – Lawlar had a completely lost season in 2024 due to a broken thumb and hamstring injury, playing in just 23 games. He’s no stranger to injuries as he also underwent major shoulder surgery in 2021. Out of sight, out of mind never loses in the prospecting industry, but Lawlar is the type of talent where you should fight that urge. He already had a huge year in the upper minors in 2023, and he’s only 22, so I don’t think lost development time should be a major consideration here. Even in the 23 games he played this year he put up .900 OPS, and he then got sent to the grown man Dominican Winter League and isn’t embarrassing himself with a .670 OPS. Only Hector Rodriguez of the Reds has a higher OPS of players around Lawlar’s age (he’s outdoing Noelvi Marte, Deyvison De Los Santos, and Liover Peguero). Just the fact he’s playing and getting reps in a league where everyone doesn’t put up silly numbers like the AFL is another reason to not get too hung up on the lost season. He has the potential for a special power/speed combo (20 homers and 36 steals in 105 games in 2023), and while there is some hit tool risk, it’s not really in that extreme zone with around mid 20 strikeout rates throughout his career. He’s not a finished product, and I would expect him to start the year in the minors, but Lawlar will be up eventually in 2025, and he can make a big impact immediately. Don’t ding him too much for the injuries. 2025 Projection: 55/14/57/.241/.312/.417/21 Prime Projection: 94/24/86/.266/.339/.459/38

12) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 20.7 – Basallo didn’t quite obliterate the upper minors like he did the lower minors, slashing .278/.341/.449 with 19 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.1/8.6 K%/BB% in 127 games, but when you take into account that he was 19 years old for the vast majority of the season, it gets a lot more impressive. He was also much better at Double-A with a 134 wRC+ in 106 games than he was at Triple-A (62 wRC+ with a 31.4% K% in 21 games), so I think we can give him a pass for an adjustment period with a new team, coaches, teammates, league, home park etc … Even at Triple-A, the sweet lefty swinging, 6’4” Basallo put up a 91.1 MPH EV. He’s always put up solid contact rates in the minors, but the spike at Triple-A could also be an indicator that we shouldn’t expect the highest BA at least early in his career. He puts the ball on the ground a decent amount, but with his type of double plus power, he’s launch proof. I don’t know where he fits in defensively with Adley behind the plate, and plenty of competition at 1B (Mayo and Mountcastle), but long term there seems to be plenty of room for all of them. He’s a special power bat. – 2025 Projection: 28/9/35/.241/.300/.430/2 Prime Projection: 84/30/97/.268/.337/.505/6

13) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 22.1 – You can’t talk about Rodriguez without talking about the fact that the guy is rarely on the field. He played in only 47 games this year due to a nagging thumb injury, and he played in only 47 games in 2022 due to a meniscus tear (knee). He did get in a mostly full season in 2023 though (he missed a few weeks with an abdominal strain), and he got in a full rookie ball season in 2021, so I’m hesitant to officially slap the injury prone label on him. It’s something to take into account to break a tie, but his upside is way too high to meaningfully move him down the rankings because of it. He’s a power/speed/OBP beast with 9 homers, 9 steals, and a .459 OBP at mostly Double-A in 47 games. It was good for a 203 wRC+ at the level. He crushes the ball, he lifts it, and he’s an excellent athlete who plays CF. Injuries aren’t the only concern though, he also has strikeout problems with a 29.7% K%. Some of it is because of how patient he is, but definitely not all of it. I wouldn’t say Minnesota’s OF is wide open, but Minnesota already announced how they want to limit Buxton to like 100-110 games next year, and while they have solid options for their corner spots, they are far from locked down. If Rodriguez is healthy and producing at Triple-A, it might not be long before he gets the call to the majors, and there is potential for monster fantasy impact, especially in an OBP league. – 2025 Projection: 36/10/31/.224/.310/435/8 Prime Projection: 92/29/89/.248/.342/.490/24

14) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 19.1 – The 6’4”, uber athletic Walcott is the type of special talent where you can watch a few swings of his on Youtube as a 16 year old and immediately fall in love with him, which is exactly what happened when he was my #1 target from his international class. He’s then been that rocket ship prospect you hope for, culminating with him putting up a 172 wRC+ at Double-A as an 18 year old … granted it came in 5 games with a 29.2/4.2 K%/BB%, but I felt it would be more dramatic to leave that part out. And what he did at Double-A was more or less meaningless when he was already over 4 years younger than the average player at High-A, where he slashed .261/.342/.443 with 10 homers, 26 steals, and a 25.5/10.6 K%/BB% in 116 games. It was good for a 123 wRC+. It can be harder to evaluate players when they are so much younger than the level, but there was actually a similarly talented 18 year old at High-A all season with Walcott, Ethan Salas, and Salas put up a 75 wRC+ for comparison. The elite dynasty asset potential is clear with a potentially plus to double plus power/speed combo, but he’s not quite there yet. The hit tool is still a risk and the K rates have been high at every stop. He also hasn’t fully tapped into his raw power yet with relatively low flyball rates (although he pulls the ball over 50%). I wouldn’t quite place him in the truly elite prospect tier, but he’s in the one right under that. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/28/94/.263/.339/.484/24

15) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He didn’t standout in his pro debut, but he did enough to feel confident about him fulfilling his upside with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 126 wRC+ and 25.4/13.9 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. He ranked 2nd overall on the Top 146 2025 First Year Player Draft Rankings (this link is to the free Top 12 here on the Brick Wall). – 2025 Projection: 31/7/31/.247/.319/.420/8 Prime Projection: 91/24/79/.271/.349/.455/25

16) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt might not have quite the ceiling of Bazzana, but even that is highly debatable, and he’s establishing that he most probably has the floor edge with a 11.9% K% at Single-A vs. Bazzana’s 25.4% K% at High-A. Different levels, but that is a pretty stark difference. He hit the ball on the ground a lot more than Bazzana, which is where some of that upside edge comes in, but he did it with a 91.9 MPH EV, so don’t cap his power upside too much. He’s two inches smaller than Bazzana at 5’10”, but he rocks that little man leg kick that I’ve always loved, and always seems to get the most out of smaller guys raw power. He slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz, likely due to missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. His 16 homer pace was also not that impressive when everyone else was hitting like 30+. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. I have Bazzana ranked over him, but I don’t think it’s some no brainer decision. JJ is right there. – 2025 Projection: 18/3/16/.259/.321/.401/5 Prime Projection: 96/19/73/.287/.353/.438/23

17) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.10 – De Paula doesn’t truly get the hype that Walker Jenkins, Sebastian Walcott and Leo De Vries gets, but he deserves every little bit of it. He might have the best hit/approach/power combo of all of them, putting up a 19.8/17.5 K%/BB% with a 130 wRC+ in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His game power still hasn’t exploded, but it ticked up from 2023 with 10 homers (2 homers in 2023), and he hits the ball so hard at 6’3” that there is little doubt about his power potential. He doesn’t sell out for power, and his groundball and pull rates are fine, so he has the potential to be one of those special monster triple-slash middle of the order mashers. He’s not a burner, but he went 27 for 30 on the bases, so the guy is obviously a good athlete who knows how to steal a base. He’s not a good defensive player, but with his potentially elite bat, I’m not scared off by that. He won’t get ranked as highly on real life lists as those aforementioned teenagers, but don’t let that deter you from thinking that Josue isn’t on that level. I was touting Josue back when he was barely heard of, and I’ll keep being high on him even as his hype gains steam. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 92/26/94/.276/.364/.482/14

18) Max Clark – DET, OF, 20.3 – Clark was the 3rd overall pick in a stacked 2023 draft class, and he played exactly as advertised in his first full season of pro ball, slashing .279/.372/.421 with 9 homers, 29 steals, and a 19.2/12.4 K%/BB% in 107 games split between Single-A (134 wRC+) and High-A (119 wRC+). He’s an absolutely electric player when you watch him with a vicious lefty swing and plus speed. He’s already one of the more exciting top of the order prospects in the lower minors, and when gains more power naturally, and starts lifting the ball a bit more (48% GB%), he can explode into a truly elite prospect. His hype has actually been relatively subdued considering how much pre draft hype he got, but make no mistake, Clark can be special. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 96/20/69/.277/.351/.443/30

19) Bubba Chandler PIT, RHP, 22.7 – Just like with hitting prospects where there seems to be two camps between preferring the hit tool first, power later profile vs. power first, hit tool later, there is a similar split with pitching prospects which is pure stuff vs. refinement/command. Chandler most certainly fell into the pure stuff first category with his upside being obvious, but he had a lot of refinement needed with a 4.75 ERA and 25.6/10.9 K%/BB% 106 IP at High-A in 2023. And that refinement smacked upper minors hitters right in the face in 2024 with him exploding. He put up a 3.08 ERA with a 30.9/8.6 K%/BB% in 119.2 IP. He was even better at Triple-A than he was at Double-A. The fastball sits 96.8 MPH and notched a 30.5% whiff% at Triple-A. The changeup is his best secondary with a 83.6 MPH EV against and 41.2% whiff%. The slider is above average with a 85 MPH EV against and 29.4% whiff%. And the lesser used curve was a good pitch too. He also most certainly looks the part at a built up and athletic 6’2”. There is zero doubt that this is an elite pitching prospect with ace upside. He’s not a completely finished product and he needs to continue to improve his command and refine his pitches, but he’s shown he’s more than capable of making those improvements in 2024. He could crack the Pirates rotation out of camp, and even if he doesn’t, it won’t be long before he gets the call. I know everyone likes Jobe more, and I obviously love Jobe too, but I prefer Chandler by a hair – 2025 Projection: 7/3.87/1.25/137 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.34/1.13/220 in 185 IP

20) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.8 – I love Jobe. He’s definitely an elite pitching prospect. But there are a few other truly elite pitching prospects in the minors right now (Painter, Schultz, Bubba, Kumar), and Jobe’s 25.6/12.0 K%/BB% in 91.2 IP at mostly Double-A just isn’t as impressive as theirs. It came with a 2.34 ERA, and the stuff is filthy with a 97 MPH plus fastball and 3 potentially plus secondaries in his sweeper, changeup, and cutter, so he’s right there with all of them, he just doesn’t hold down the top spot right now. Or the top 2. I have him 4th behind Painter, Schultz and Bubba, but there is no shame in that game as those guys are potentially true aces, just like Jobe is. Jobe should break camp with the team in 2025, and while I wouldn’t expect an ace season right out of the gate, I’m betting on him getting there eventually. – 2025 Projection: 8/3.83/1.27/136 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.08/207 in 180 IP

21) Kumar Rocker – TEX, RHP, 25.4 – It’s been a super bumpy ride, to say the least, but Rocker has inexplicably blasted off into elite pitching prospect status after just 48.1 IP this season. Well, it’s not exactly inexplicable, it’s explicable because he always had the nasty stuff to get here if he stayed healthy. Can we say pitching 48.1 IP is “staying” healthy? I don’t know. But what I do know is that the high octane stuff is elite enough to take on that risk. The 4-seamer sits mid to upper 90’s, and while it’s not a huge bat missing weapon without tons of vertical break, he also throws a mid to upper 90’s sinker which pounds the ball into the dirt. He can start throwing the sinker more, and he can also work on the movement profile of the 4-seamer now that he’s healthy. The real money maker is the truly elite slider. It put up a 50% whiff% in 11.2 IP in the majors and a 71.4% whiff% in 10 IP at Triple-A. He rounds out the arsenal with a lesser used changeup, and how good he can get that pitch could be a big factor in just how high the upside will end up. Digging into the nitty gritty of his pitch mix is almost besides the point though, because staying healthy is essentially the only thing he needs to do. The Mets drafted him 10th overall and didn’t sign him because they didn’t like his medicals. He then underwent shoulder surgery shortly after that, but looked so good in Independent ball when he returned from the surgery, that the Rangers selected him 3rd overall the next year. Which he followed up with Tommy John in 2023, returning for the 2nd half of 2024, where he put up a 1.96 ERA with a 39.6/3.6 K%/BB% in 36.2 IP at mostly AA and AAA. It’s about as risky of a health profile as it gets, but all pitchers are so risky, that I don’t want to discount him too much because of it. I’ll take on extra risk when the upside is a true ace. The downside could be a high leverage reliever though if he keeps getting hurt. 2025 Projection: 9/3.71/1.20/146 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.35/1.13/190 in 160 IP

22) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many pitchers are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall in a FYPD should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now, and while I already noted that Burns isn’t Skenes, the college hitting class also aren’t Langford/Crews. – 2025 Projection: 4/3.73/1.20/87 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/237 in 190 IP

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s time to give the 2024 World Series Champions their due on the Brick Wall. I gush over their superior development, I marvel at their smart front office (while also wondering if they only look so smart because everyone else is so dumb), I agonize over their never ending logjam, I cry over all of their injured pitchers, and I dive into sooooooo much more. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Hitters

Michael ConfortoLAD, OF, 32.1 – If you missed out on Teoscar Hernandez’ monster bounce back season, the universe is giving you another chance this off-season to rectify that mistake. It is nearly an exact replica of the Teoscar situation with Conforto this off-season. The Dodgers signed Conforto to a 1 year, $17 million contract, and it’s almost like nobody else in baseball understands how ballpark factors work. I’m starting to think the Dodgers are so “smart” only relative to how dumb everyone else is. Conforto goes from the 28th worst park for lefty homers (SF) to the 6th best. He hit 3 homers at home vs. 17 on the road. I mean, come on. Could it get anymore obvious? Yes. Yes it can. He had a 11.8% Barrel%, a 90.2/95.4 MPH AVG/LD EV, 14.8 degree launch, a 74.1 MPH swing, and 24.2/8.6 K%/BB%. And he actually hit lefties better than righties last year, so there isn’t that much platoon risk. There was no team out there willing to give him a 2 or 3 year deal? You let the Dodgers just do it again? He’s a major win now buy target going for a song of a price (still only 280th overall NFBC ADP over the last month). 2025 Projection: 77/25/84/.250/.338/.468/2

Andy PagesLAD, OF, 24.4 – The Dodgers Giveth and The Dodgers Taketh Away. They giveth us these beautiful, ready made prospects who are perfectly developed and capable of making an immediate impact on our fantasy team … and then they taketh them right out of the lineup and stick them on their bench, or at Triple-A. We saw it with Michael Busch. We’re seeing it now with Andy Pages. And Dalton Rushing is on double deck to get the same treatment, which is why I’m maybe a hair lighter on Rushing than others. But let the record show, I was the first guy hyping Rushing based off his pro debut. You know a good pro debut doesn’t slip by me ;). And while we’re at it, here is a fun tweet from November 2019 where I name Andy Pages my favorite “No One Else Is On” player. Actually Jordan Rosenblum was the only other one on him (as mentioned in the tweet), and that was back before Jordan was the man behind the man of like every projection based system on the internet, hah. I even identify the prospect writer/analyst sleepers before they hit big! But enough back patting (life is short, let me celebrate my hits, will ya), let’s get back to Pages’ dynasty value. He set a rock solid foundation to build on in his rookie year with a 10.7% Barrel%, 88.6 MPH EV, 20.8 degree launch, 28.3 ft/sec sprint, 73.1 MPH swing, .321 xwOBA, and a 26.1% whiff% in 116 games. That is a damn good collection of skills, and not very easy to find at all. If he had a full time job, I would be all over him, but it’s hard to hype a guy up who simply doesn’t have a job. And even if injuries hit, he has competition to be next man up. The cream generally rises to the top, and players generally get their shot one way or another at some point, so for dynasty, I wouldn’t be overly concerned about it, but I don’t see how you can’t factor it in. If you want to ignore playing time, Pages would be a Top 200 dynasty asset easy for me, but with the playing time concerns, I have him more in the Top 250-300 ish range. – 2025 Projection: 48/15/44/.244/.318/.435/3 Prime Projection: 79/26/82/.252/.333/.465/7

Pitchers 

Bobby MillerLAD, RHP, 26.0 – What a fucking disaster that was, huh. Miller came into 2024 as one of the most hyped young starters in the game, and he left it injured, disgraced, and without a job coming into 2025. The life of a young pitcher ain’t easy (other than the $3,665,520 million in career earnings he has by the time he’s 26 years old, although in LA, what does that buy you? A studio apartment?). Miller got shellacked in both the majors (8.52 ERA with a 20.2/11.6 K%/BB% in 56 IP) and Triple-A (6.00 ERA with a 17.6/13.1 K%/BB% in 33 IP). The stuff was down about 2 ticks across the board. The cause of the disaster is pretty easy to identify though. In his first start of the season, his velocity was the same as 2023, and he dominated with 11 strikeouts in 6 IP. His velocity then started to decline in the next 2 terrible outings, leading to him getting pulled in his 3rd outing of the season with shoulder inflammation. He was never the same after that 1st start, and his velocity never quite got back to 2023 levels. Even with diminished stuff, he still had humongous stuff with a 97.6 MPH fastball (99 MPH in 2023), but it wasn’t only about the stuff, his control/command was way off too. The hope is that with a full off-season to get healthy, he looks much more like the guy from 2023 than 2024, and while he certainly has plenty plenty of competition for a rotation spot, you have to think that if he looks healthy in spring, he’s the favorite to win one of the open jobs. Overall, I would say I’m lukewarm on him. Even in his great rookie year, he still only had a 23.6% K%, so when you tack on the injury risk now too, there are questions about both the pure upside and the floor. On the flip side, it’s easy to bet on the monster stuff, history of production, and clear reason for the down year. I’m in between. – 2025 Projection: 8/3.93/1.31/135 in 140 IP

Walker BuehlerBOS, RHP, 30.8 – I know Buehler isn’t on the Dodgers anymore, but I find him the most interesting guy to discuss right now from their 2024 team. He was coming off his 2nd Tommy John surgery, and it sure did look like he was doubly rusted when he returned. It took him until the playoffs for him to even start feeling at least halfway like himself. And despite the terrible season, it seems like people aren’t too scared off by him. He’s going 248th overall in NFBC right now, which is pretty high, and I gotta say, I’m out on him at that price for sure. His name value still clearly carries a lot of weight, and while I do respect the track record, and the very good possibility he will be much better in his 2nd year removed from the surgery, I still don’t think he’ll be good enough to warrant his still decently high price tag. He put up a 5.38 ERA with a 18.6/8.1 K%/BB% in 75.1 IP in the regular season. He got a late start to the season due to the elbow, even though he got the surgery all the way back in August of 2022, which was a bad sign, and then he missed 2 months during the season with a hip injury. The stuff was diminished even further when he returned from that injury. He was better in the playoffs with a 3.60 ERA in 15 IP, but the stuff was still diminished, and it came with a 20.6/7.9 K%/BB%, so it’s not like he was back in prime form or anything. He throws a 7 pitch mix, and not a single one of them put up a whiff% over 30%, which isn’t good. His whiffs were already coming down before the injury, and now they are in the toilet at 19.4% overall. His stuff really isn’t all that standout anymore, and is arguably below average. He’s an aging, banged up pitcher with decent stuff and continually declining whiff rates. I’m out at his current price. – 2025 Projection: 9/4.09/1.30/137 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Michael Kopech – LAD, Closer Committee, 28.11 – We’ve been fighting it for years, but Kopech finally took his rightful place in the back of a bullpen, and he thrived with a 3.46 ERA and 31.5/12.2 K%/BB% in 67.2 IP. He was also much better in LA (1.13 ERA in 24 IP) than he was in Chicago (4.74 ERA), because of course he was. He dominates with an elite, heavily used (78.4% usage) 98.7 MPH fastball that is a bat missing machine with a 34% whiff%. The much lesser used slider and cutter aren’t nearly as impressive, but the cutter was a new pitch and was pretty good when he went to it with a .235 xwOBA. It seems he is the favorite for the lion’s share of the closer job in 2025, but the Dodgers were mixing and matching a lot even after he took over the job in the 2nd half of 2024, and his hold on the job is going to be mighty tenuous at the first sign of struggles. The well below average control, lack of a great secondary, and shaky hold on the job makes him a high risk option, but the high reward is there too. 2025 Projection: 4/3.45/1.20/80/22 saves in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.10 – De Paula doesn’t truly get the hype that Walker Jenkins, Sebastian Walcott and Leo De Vries gets, but he deserves every little bit of it. He might have the best hit/approach/power combo of all of them, putting up a 19.8/17.5 K%/BB% with a 130 wRC+ in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His game power still hasn’t exploded, but it ticked up from 2023 with 10 homers (2 homers in 2023), and he hits the ball so hard at 6’3” that there is little doubt about his power potential. He doesn’t sell out for power, and his groundball and pull rates are fine, so he has the potential to be one of those special monster triple-slash middle of the order mashers. He’s not a burner, but he went 27 for 30 on the bases, so the guy is obviously a good athlete who knows how to steal a base. He’s not a good defensive player, but with his potentially elite bat, I’m not scared off by that. He won’t get ranked as highly on real life lists as those aforementioned teenagers, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that Josue isn’t on that level. He ranked 123rd overall on A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 92/26/94/.276/.364/.482/14

2) Emil Morales – LAD, SS, 18.6 – Morales was my 3rd ranked international prospect (behind only Leo and Paulino) and one of my top FYPD targets, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “His physicality in the box stands out immediately. He is a grown man at 6’3”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that can punish a baseball. He combines that with a mature plate approach and a good feel to hit. It certainly looks like he can be a middle of the order beast, and he has the right team to get it out of him. He’s a definite target.” … and he more than came through as one of, if not the top DSL breakout, slashing .342/.478/.691 with 14 homers, 12 steals, and a 22.4/19.9 K%/BB% in 46 games. He’s a lift and pull machine and there is potential for double plus raw power at peak, meaning the home run upside here is elite. The swing is quick and athletic, and he’s a good athlete for his size too. Most places have Jesus Made over Emil Morales an easy call in Made’s favor, but I actually think it’s pretty damn close. Made has the hit tool and speed edge, but Morales has the game power and raw power edge, and often times that power edge can overcome all other flaws. A 22.4% K% is on the high side for the DSL, so I do agree that Made’s combo of floor and upside takes it, but I’m not 100% sure I’m making the right call there. Either way, I love both, and I really, really love Morales compared to his much cheaper price. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/33/98/.250/.338/.519/9

3) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/OF, 24.1 – It seems that LA is set on keeping Rushing at catcher, which I completely understand for real life value, but for fantasy, I don’t think it’s great. Will Smith is signed until 2034, meaning Rushing looks ticketed for some kind of hybrid C/1B/OF/DH role, and with how hard it is to crack the Dodgers full time lineup (and with how little leash they give their prospects due to unlimited resources and strong organizational depth), it seems like Rushing is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time. They are not rolling out the red carpet for him at all, and I do think it hurts his fantasy value a bit. Putting defense aside for now, as a pure hitter, there is so much to like. He proved himself in the upper minors in 2024, slashing .271/.385/.512 with 26 homers, 2 steals, and a 20.5/12.7 K%/BB% in 114 games split between Double-A (149 wRC+) and Triple-A (128 wRC+). He has easy plus power with a 90.8 MPH EV, he has a launch made for both power and average, and he has a plus plate approach. The hit tool is solid, but I can see that dipping to below average against major league pitching, and like I mentioned earlier, we have seen LA be very quick with the hook if young players aren’t producing. I like the bat a ton, but defense, path to playing time, and the slight hit tool questions are enough to make me hesitant to really value him at a premium right now. – 2025 Projection: 38/12/45/.242/.310/.428/1 Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.262/.339/.465/2

4) Zyhir Hope – LAD, OF, 20.2 – And this is why “In the Dodgers We Trust” is a dynasty motto that should be burned into our retinas. They take Hope, and turn it into reality. Hope was a high risk, high reward upside pick by the Cubs in 2023 who struck out 30.2% of the time in rookie ball in his pro debut. He got traded to the Dodgers in the off-season in the Michael Busch trade, and of course the Dodgers immediately drastically improved his only weakness, bringing the strikeout rate all the way down to 22.8% at mostly Single-A. There is still hit tool risk (he hit .228 with a 24.3% K% in 23 games in the AFL), but low to mid 20’s hit tool risk is in an entirely other bucket than hovering around 30% hit tool risk. And the hit tool improved without impacting any other areas of his game, slashing .290/.419/.484 with 9 homers, 9 steals, a 22.8/15.1 K%/BB% and a 144 wRC+ in 61 games. The reasons he’s not ranked even higher than this are because the ground ball rates are on the high side (45.1%), there is still hit tool risk, and his speed/stolen base skills seem to be more in the above average than truly great area. So a guy who swings and misses a lot, hits the ball on the ground, and doesn’t run quite as much as we would like isn’t necessarily a slam dunk. I’m saying this just as much to myself as I am to you, because it’s hard not to fall head over heels for him. He hits the ball very hard, he’s a great athlete, he’s in a great organization, and he’s done nothing but produce. I do feel some caution is warranted before really putting him into that near elite to elite prospect tier, but he’s not too far off from that already. I’m thinking something like Randy Arozarena could be a good ceiling comp. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/22/81/.255/.338/.445/19

5) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 19.5 – Vargas was one of my favorite targets in his international class, and then was once again one of my favorite DSL breakout targets, so if anyone wants to crown him already, it would be me, but I can’t quite crown him yet. He had a strong year in stateside rookie ball with a 129 wRC+, but 4 homers in 38 games shows the game power isn’t quite there yet, the 22.8% K% is on the high side, and he wasn’t that successful on the bases, going 11 for 16. So that means he still needs to improve his hit tool, power, and speed. Completely reasonable for an 18 year old rookie baller to need to improve basically everywhere, and I still love the power upside at a projectable 6’4” with hard hit ability, but it’s not quite that straight rocket ship you really want. He’s a Top 100 prospect for me, but I can’t put him in that truly coveted tier quite yet. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 81/25/85/.257/.336/.465/9

6) Eduardo Quintero – LAD, OF, 19.7 – Quintero was one of, if not the top DSL breakout in 2023, and he mostly backed it up in stateside rookie ball in 2024, slashing .330/.459/.449 with 3 homers, 29 steals, and a 19.3/17.6 K%/BB% in 56 games. It was good for a 142 wRC+. He struggled when he got the call to Single-A with a 77 wRC+ in 27 games, but it came with a 19.6/16.1 K%/BB%, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. You have to give these kids time to adjust to a new level. He’s an excellent athlete at 6’0”, 175 pounds with plus speed, hard hit ability, a good feel to hit, and a plus plate approach. The launch is geared for both power and average, and he has a good glove in the OF. This guy basically does everything well on a baseball field, and while there is still plenty of development left to go (being more aggressive at the dish, getting stronger, unlocking more game power, proving it at higher levels), you have to trust the Dodgers to get the most out of him. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 86/19/74/.273/.341/.430/26

7) Hye-seong Kim – LAD, 2B, 26.2 – It’s funny that I just had Kim and Lux ranked back to back in the 2B rankings, with Kim one spot ahead, and it looks like the Dodgers agreed with me. They preferred Kim to Lux at 2B too after they signed Kim and shipped out Lux to Cincinnati. Kim signed a 3 year, $12.5 million contract with the Dodgers, but he got better offers elsewhere. Smart move going to the best situation rather than taking the best offer. Kim’s contact/speed/defense profile is one that plenty of starting 2B have, and I think it will play in the majors. He slashed .326/.383/.458 with 11 homers, 30 steals, and a 10.9/8.3 K%/BB% in 127 games in the KBO. We can look at Jung Hoo Lee as a comp who just came over last year. Both are lefties and the same age with similar profiles. Lee is 2 inches taller, had much better contact rates, much better walk rates, and much better power numbers. He didn’t run nearly as much though, and steals are a huge part of fantasy, so that is a nice edge to Kim. Kim isn’t as good as Lee overall, but Lee’s skills more or less transferred to the bigs, so I don’t see why Kim’s couldn’t too. Just check out this homer he hit in 2023. I would say that swing could play. It seems like he has a full time job at the moment (although nothing is certain until the off-season is over), and as I wrote in the 2B rankings, if he ended up with a full time job, I’m apt to go after him. Even better that he ended up with one on the Dodgers. Kim ranked 16th overall in the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon).2025 Projection: 71/9/53/.260/.307/.372/22 Prime Projection: 77/10/61/.273/.321/.398/26

8) Alex Freeland – LAD, SS, 23.7 – I’m pretty certain I’m the only one crazy enough to have called Freeland a target in his FYPD class after getting drafted 105th overall, but you know how strongly I feel about good pro debuts (and bad pro debuts), even in small samples, and Freeland had himself a hell of a pro debut with a 152 wRC+, 3 homers, and 2 steals in 8 games at Single-A. That was enough for me to target him late, and look at him just two years later, getting major mainstream hype. Please ignore the fact that he actually didn’t crack my 2024 Top 1,000 after his lukewarm year in 2023 😉 … but my point still stands, pro debuts mean a lot, and certainly when you are looking for late round sleepers. And now that he is getting rained down with hype, I hate to be that guy, but I think he might be getting overrated now. A lot of his damage and hype came from dominating High-A in 23 games, but he was 22 year old and repeating the level. He was good at Double-A too with a 127 wRC+, but a .245/.370/.422 triple-slash isn’t exactly blowing the doors off, and he struggled at Triple-A, slashing .243/.335/.396 with a 26.8% K% and 85 wRC+ in 39 games. The bottom line is that he hit under .250 at the age appropriate levels of the upper minors with a pretty high strikeout rate. He has very real hit tool risk. But enough raining on his parade. He’s definitely exciting with an above average to plus power/speed combo, jacking out 18 homers with 31 steals in 136 games. He hits the ball hard and he’s fast, so those numbers aren’t a mirage. He also has a good infield glove, so his glove should only help him get in the lineup. Whenever a former deep sleeper blows up, they will always hold a fond place in my heart, but perceived value shifts, and my feelings on a player has to shift with perceived value. Right now, I think he might be a tad overrated even though I still like him. – 2025 Projection: 17/3/19/.229/.293/.378/5 Prime Projection: 77/19/71/.248/.324/.421/21

9) Kellon Lindsey – LAD, SS, 19.6 – Selected 23rd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, elite speed is the the 6’0”, 175 pound Lindsey’s calling card, and it comes with a good glove at SS and a good feel to hit. There isn’t big power in here, and while that should tick up over time, he doesn’t really project for big power down the line either. The hit tool is solid, but it’s not really in that near elite range and there is some risk with how it will perform against more advanced pitching. He’s an excellent athlete who played QB and DB in high school, so there is plenty of upside in here, but going after a speed first guy without huge power and with a good but not great hit tool I think warrants some caution. I know getting drafted by LA and getting Trea Turner comps is exciting, but I’m not sure I’m reaching for Lindsey quite yet. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/15/66/.270/.328/.420/31

10) Jackson Ferris – LAD, LHP, 21.3 – I definitely like Ferris a lot, and was quick to jump on him during the season last year, but I don’t love the K/BB taking such a huge step back when he got to Double-A. He put a 3.39 ERA with a 29.2/10.5 K%/BB% in 98.1 IP at High-A and a 2.54 ERA with a 21.3/11.5 K%/BB% in 28.1 IP at Double-A. The stuff is good, but it’s not really standout with a low to mid 90’s fastball, two good breaking balls, and a lesser used, but good change. He gets a lot of “looks the part” extra hype as a 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with an athletic delivery, but as is, it might be a back end profile. The reason why I was so quick to jump on him, and why he gets lots of love, is because we try to project who a player could be in the prospect world, and at his young age with his projectable frame, you can definitely dream on a mid rotation starter or better with an extra tick on the fastball and continued refinement. Again, I like him a lot, but I would be hesitant to put too high a value on him right now. I’m staying a little cautious here. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.27/162 in 165 IP

Just Missed

11) River Ryan – LAD, RHP, 26.8

12) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 24.9

13) Hyun-Seok Jang – LAD, RHP, 21.0 – I just couldn’t resist writing up Jang even though he didn’t crack the Top 10, because if there is one pitcher in the minors who can jump into near elite pitching prospect range extremely quickly into 2025, it’s Jang. If he has literally a few good outings to start the season, maybe even just one good outing, the hype is going to hit really damn hard. He was one of my top FYPD pitching targets last off-season, and while his control/command was too raw to say he was a major hit, he more than showed the upside that I just can’t resist. He put up a ridiculous 41% K% in 36.2 IP split between rookie ball (41.5%) and Single-A (39.6%). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with an athletic righty delivery that fires a mid 90’s fastball that can reach the upper 90’s, to go along with a 2 potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a developing changeup that flashes plus. He was improving as the year progressed with a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP at Single-A (6.14 ERA on the season), which is a good sign, but the 16.3% BB% remained high all year, and that is just way too high. He has the type of stuff that can thrive with below average control, but he has work to do to get to even that. The way I see it, the raw control gives you one more off-season to get in for cheap or possibly nothing before he really starts to pop. Last year was his first year in a new country and his first year in pro ball. There was a lot of adjusting to do, and I think he’s going to look a lot more comfortable in year 2. He’s a major target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 11/3.69/1.28/180 in 160 IP

14) Chase Harlan – LAD, 3B, 18.9 – Most of the high school hitting class, except for Morlando and Fountain, are speed over power prospects at the moment, so if you are looking for an upside power bat later in the draft, Harlan is your guy. Selected 98th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Harlan is a 6’3”, 205 pound bruiser putting up some of the best exit velocities in the class. He’s also young for the class and will still be 18 years old for half of the 2025 season. If you squint hard enough, you see an Austin Riley clone down the line. And equally as exciting as his profile is that he landed with the Dodgers. If anyone can figure out the best batting stance for him, and get his hit tool to a good enough level for the power to shine, it’s the Dodgers. I really like him and he’s definitely underrated. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.243/.326/.465/5

15) Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 21.10 – Selected 87th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Sirota was a potential first round pick coming into the season, but instead of having the big junior year breakout, he took a step back. He went from hitting 18 homers his sophomore year to just 7 homers in 51 games in the Colonial Athletic Conference his junior year. The hit tool isn’t good enough to see the power take a step back with a 18.8% K%, and considering he’s not from a major conference, the profile needed to be pretty bulletproof. But having said that, it could create a buying opportunity for our purposes. He’s 6’3”, 188 pounds with plus speed and good raw power. The swing and stance is geared more for average than power, but he’s young for the class, and hopefully pro instruction can get the most out of his raw power (I wrote this blurb just minutes before he got traded to the Dodgers, and now you have to feel even better about the Dodgers unlocking his power). He also has an excellent plate approach with a 23% BB%. He’s most likely a 4th outfielder, but joining the Dodgers gives him the best chance possible of beating that projection. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 69/16/57/.246/.319/.418/19

16) Kendall George LAD, OF, 20.5

17) Ben Casparius – LAD, RHP, 26.2

18) Teilon Serrano – LAD, OF, 16.10 – I love me a Dodgers prospect, and I also love me a prospect with such a visually fast and explosive swing, so that means I like Serrano a lot in this FYPD class. He doesn’t have big present power, but at 6’0”, 185 pounds, and with that swing, I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his eventual raw power. And he’s a burner with plus to double speed. I think he could have some of the best speed first upside in this class. He’s late round international target for me and he ranked 93rd overall on the Top 146 2025 FYPD Ranks (Patreon). ETA: 2030 Prime Projection: 83/16/64/.259/.328/.413/30

19) Brendan Tunink – LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 250th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Tunink is a high upside high schooler drafted by the Dodgers. That is an excellent foundation right there. He’s a strong 6’0”, 185 pounds with an absolutely vicious lefty swing that is looking to do damage, and it’s a short and controlled swing too. He combines that with plus speed and a good feel to hit. This is a bet on the Dodgers just as much as it’s a bet on Tunink. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/17/68/.252/.321/.421/17

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Hye-seong Kim blurb, it’s extremely easy to get tunnel vision with pure player evaluation when making decisions in dynasty, but supply and demand should often be the driver of your decisions instead. How I rank players in my FYPD rankings, is the same order you will find them on my overall Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, which is the same order you will find them on my Top 1,000+ Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I try my darndest to give truly actionable rankings/content that fully incorporates how dynasty leagues operate in practice, rather than just in theory, and I know that when that point comes in a dynasty draft (usually around Top 400-ish area) where the supply of MLB starters dries up, especially MLB starters with some upside, it’s a feeding frenzy to grab them before they are gone. That is why Kim slots in high on my FYPD Rankings. Players like Kim who have a path to a full time job, and have some upside, are much more valuable to grab than one of the many, many, many high upside lotto ticket prospects you can grab later on. It’s just simple supply and demand. Kim doesn’t have the upside of many of the bats I have ranked after him on the FYPD rankings, and he definitely may come in and be underwhelming, but I still believe he’s worth taking the shot on at that point in the rankings. And I do personally like his profile too as a hit/speed/defense play. You have to take into account the environment of your league, and what is a bucket of player where the supply is limited (guys with jobs) vs. what is the bucket of player where there is plenty of supply (high upside prospects). This will change league to league though. In shallow leagues, low end MLB starters might be very easy to pick up all season, whereas high upside prospects are only available in a FYPD and they can’t be picked up during the season. That will change the equation for sure. Even in a shallow league though, I still think Kim has the skillset to make an impact. Regardless, you get the point. Make sure you understand what is hard to acquire in your league, and what is easy, and then slant your decision making process to best take advantage of that.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
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Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon)

I’m pumped to be getting into the true meat of the off-season, and we kick things off with the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings! The top 12 are free down below on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, Prime Projections, and ETA’s for every player. The FYPD Target and Strategy Guide is coming tomorrow on the Patreon, and then I will close out the week with another installment of the Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings Series. And we are just getting started with sooooooo much more coming. But first, here is the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

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1) Roki Sasaki FRA, RHP, 23.5 – Sasaki and his people pulled whatever back room deals that needed to be pulled and got him coming stateside this season, which is insanely exciting, because there is little doubt that he will be a true ace right from the get go, and possibly the best pitcher in all the land. He’s better than Yamamoto, and you saw Yamamoto’s seamless transition, other than the shoulder injury. Sasaki’s fastball sits in the upper 90’s and regularly hits over 100 MPH. The splitter is truly elite and the slider is plus. He has prototypical size at a projectable and athletic 6’2”, 187 pounds, and he has plus control/command of his stuff. He’s been so insanely dominant in Japan that he has basically already hit legend status with so many crazy feats, and he’s only 23 years old. He put up a 2.35 ERA with a 28.7/7.1 K%/BB% in 111 IP this year. He was even better in 2023 with a 1.78 ERA and 39.1%/4.9% K%/BB% in 91 IP. As you can see, the biggest and only red flag is injuries, as he has a career high of 129.1 IP. He battled an oblique injury in 2023 and right arm discomfort in 2024. The right arm discomfort is particularly concerning because his stuff was actually down a tick or two this year. It was still beastly, but would any of us be surprised if Tommy John/internal brace surgery was right around the corner? You can’t be too scared off by that, because even if he needs it, he should still return as an ace. He’s so easily the top pick in First Year Player Drafts, and he has a very real argument to be the top dynasty pitcher in the game. – 2025 Projection: 12/3.06/1.04/175 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.72/0.92/240 in 185 IP

2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He didn’t standout in his pro debut, but he did enough to feel confident about him fulfilling his upside with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 126 wRC+ and 25.4/13.9 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. – 2025 Projection: 31/7/31/.247/.319/.420/8 Prime Projection: 91/24/79/.271/.349/.455/25

3) JJ Wetherholt STL, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt might not have quite the ceiling of Bazzana, but even that is highly debatable, and he’s establishing that he most probably has the floor edge with a 11.9% K% at Single-A vs. Bazzana’s 25.4% K% at High-A. Different levels, but that is a pretty stark difference. He hit the ball on the ground a lot more than Bazzana, which is where some of that upside edge comes in, but he did it with a 91.9 MPH EV, so don’t cap his power upside too much. He’s two inches smaller than Bazzana at 5’10”, but he rocks that little man leg kick that I’ve always loved, and always seems to get the most out of smaller guys raw power. He slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz, likely due to missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. His 16 homer pace was also not that impressive when everyone else was hitting like 30+. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. I have Bazzana ranked over him, but I don’t think it’s some no brainer decision. JJ is right there. – 2025 Projection: 18/3/16/.259/.321/.401/5 Prime Projection: 96/19/73/.287/.353/.438/23

4) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many pitchers are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now, and while I already noted that Burns isn’t Skenes, the college hitting class also aren’t Langford/Crews. – 2025 Projection: 4/3.73/1.20/87 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/237 in 190 IP

5) Christian Moore – LAA, 2B, 22.5 – Selected 8th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Angels don’t fuck around when it comes to promoting advanced college hitters to the majors, so you know Moore is going to be a contributor on your fantasy team real quick, possibly as soon as Opening Day. Shit, he almost made his MLB debut in 2024 with his absolute destruction of pro ball, slashing .322/.378/.533 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 29.6/8.2 K%/BB% in 23 games at Double-A. A knee injury (meniscus) is likely the only thing that stopped that from happening, but he returned to Double-A before the season ended and went 3 for 4 with a double and 4 RBI, so I wouldn’t be worried about the knee. I fell in love with his personality during his Draft Day interview. It was the perfect mix of confident, cocky, thoughtful, playful and mature. That just seems like the type of infectious attitude I want on my team. He wasn’t kidding when he said he had Champion in his blood. And of course, he was an absolute beast in the SEC, smashing 34 homers with a 1.248 OPS and 14.5%/11.3% K%/BB% in 72 games. He has a very strong righty swing at 6’1”, 210 pounds, producing at least plus power with average speed on the bases. In his freshman year in 2022, he put up a 1.062 OPS with 10 homers in 149 PA to give you an idea of the type of natural talent this is. As you saw with his K rate at Double-A, there are definitely some hit tool issues, which I’m not ignoring, but I’m also not letting it scare me off. I was high on Moore before his pro debut, and now I am over the moon for him. 2025 Projection: 70/23/77/.242/.310/.437/8 Prime Projection: 83/28/91/.260/.331/.472/11

6) Nick Kurtz OAK, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 4th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Kurtz had one of the best pro debuts in his draft class with 4 homers in 7 games at Single-A, and a 129 wRC+ with a 20.0/13.3 K%/BB% in 5 games at Double-A. It was a just a continuation of the 3 years of dominance in the ACC. He’s a large man at 6’5”, 240 pounds in the mold of a Jim Thome, country strong type. But he’s not just brute strength, he has electric bat speed that led to 61 homers in 164 career games in college. He combines the at least plus power with an extremely patient plate approach and good feel to hit (16.2%/30% K%/BB%). He also has some sneaky athleticism, evidenced by a perfect 11 for 11 on the bases in his college career. The ceiling here is your classic complete hitting first baseman with power and patience. And it looks like the Athletics intend to fly him through the minors, so it might not even be crazy to see him break camp with the team, even if I wouldn’t bet on that. The biggest downside is that his season ended on August 24th with a hamstring injury, and injuries have plagued him throughout his career, so I think it’s something that has to be taken into account unfortunately. He returned in time to decimate the AFL with a 1.058 OPS in 13 games, so I don’t think you should overrate the injury risk too much, but it’s worth noting. – 2025 Projection: 48/16/57/.247/.323/.439/4 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.266/.351/.488/6

7) Konnor Griffin – PIT, OF, 18.11 – Selected 9th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Griffin has the highest pure upside in this entire class, and that includes Roki Sasaki. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds and has the look of a #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft as a QB. He has the neck of a football player too. He also has the athleticism of a football player with legit potential to put up 30/30 seasons with a plus to double plus power/speed combo. He’s shown a good feel to hit with a good plate approach in his high school career, but like I mentioned back in February 2024 when I did a very early Top 10 FYPD Ranking, the swing isn’t necessarily the smoothest thing in the world, although it actually looks much better to me now than it did then. Plus you can tack on electric bat speed and bank on continued refinement considering how young he is for the class. Pitt obviously wasn’t worried enough about the hit tool to let him slip by them at #9, and for fantasy especially, I wouldn’t let it scare you off him either. This is legit elite dynasty asset potential, and there is chance you are kicking yourself 1-2 years from now for taking a good but not great college bat, over this potentially elite dynasty player. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 89/25/92/.261/.337/.470/33

8) Cam Smith – HOU, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why Houston targeted him in the Kyle Tucker trade. The trade doesn’t really change his value at all, but he will definitely get a nice ballpark upgrade even if he doesn’t have the type of profile that necessarily needs it. – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

9) Hagen Smith – CHW, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the White Sox know a thing or two about developing vicious lefty starters with funky deliveries and some control risk. They’ve done just fine with Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Noah Schultz. The 6’3”, 225 pound Hagen Smith is next on that list with a three quarter arm slot delivery that he uses to fire a double plus mid 90’s fastball and double plus slider. Both pitches are whiff machines, leading to a 2.04 ERA with a 48.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 84 IP in the SEC. He also mixes in a splitter, and while he doesn’t throw it that often, it’s a good pitch when he goes to it. The walk rate is on the high side, and it was worse in his freshman and sophomore seasons with a 13.4% BB% in 148.3 IP. Improving his control/command and turning his splitter into a higher usage 3rd weapon can turn Smith into a true ace. If he can’t improve in those areas, a high K, mid-rotation starter is within the range of outcomes (and I guess the bullpen is too, but you don’t take a guy 6th overall to use him in the bullpen long term). I’m surprised that Smith was allowed to debut in 2024, but Chicago marches to the beat of their own drum. He more than held his own at High-A with a 3.52 ERA and 21.2/6.1 K%/BB% in 7.2 IP over 3 outings. The filthy stuff was as advertised, and while the K numbers weren’t off the charts, it’s nice to see that clean walk rate. Add a star for being young for the class, but take a star away for already undergoing Tommy John when he was 16 years old. – 2025 Projection: 2/3.91/1.28/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.48/1.17/203 in 175 IP

10) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.11 – Let me just start by saying that I’ve been valuing pro debuts extremely high from the second I started writing back in 2015/16, and it has served me extremely well in both directions (moving guys both up and down). It was back before any other outlet would even consider changing their evaluation or ranking of a player based on their pro debut. When asked, they would just hand wave it away and say something like “small sample,” even though the sample was often actually bigger in pro ball than it was in their Junior year of college (back when the draft was in early June). It made no sense to me why the pro debut with wood bats and more advanced pitching wouldn’t be weighed more heavily. And now, you see basically every outlet change their ranking at least somewhat based on the pro debuts, which is the right move. That brings us to Charlie Condon, who just had the type of pro debut you have nightmares over. Despite all of his pre draft hype, he did have some hit tool questions at 6’6” with relatively high K rates throughout his college career. And the hit tool immediately didn’t transfer to pro ball with a .180 BA and 31.2/3.7 K%/BB% in 25 games at High-A. That isn’t just bad, that is atrocious. Completely lost. It’s not great that the only question he had coming out of the draft was immediately answered, and not in a good way. This was a 21 year old in the lower minors. You need a high FYPD college bat to dominate in the majors by like 23 years old, let alone High-A. Jacob Berry and Chase Davis were the last two hyped college bats to have poor pro debuts, and neither of their values are anywhere close to where you wanted them to be. Condon is a better prospect than both of those guys, and I’m not dropping him as far down as those guys at all, but I do believe he does deserve a real drop. This draft class was already really tightly packed at the top with a lot of really, really good college talent, but no one true standout. So based on Condon’s poor debut, I don’t see how it doesn’t make complete sense to drop him under those guys. He has a clear carrying tool in his power, and of course I do factor in that the pro debut was at the end of a long season, draft process, new team, new coach, new everything etc …, so he’s still a Top 10 FYPD pick for me. I still like him as a power bat who will get to hit in Coors (but also gets their developmental team, and it looks like he still needs development). I just wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger on him until the other similarly talented college players with better debuts were off the board first. I feel like that’s reasonable. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/30/88/.241/.322/.472/8

11) Braden MontgomeryCHW, OF, 22.0 – Selected 12th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, there was a lot of talk about Montgomery dropping his righty swing to hit exclusively lefty. That doesn’t really seem like what you want to hear from a highly drafted college bat, but the lefty swing is so smooth and powerful I get why it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal overall. He also had a 20% K% which is substantially higher than the college bats drafted before him. Maybe that is partly why he slipped a bit to 12th overall, and also why Boston was willing to include him in the Crochet trade. The broken ankle which he suffered pre draft on June 8th was also likely a major reason for the drop. So he certainly has some risk with hit tool, platooning and injury, but he also has very major power upside. He’s 6’2”, 220 pounds and he smashed 27 homers with a 1.187 OPS in 61 games in the SEC. He’s been smashing homers his entire career with 62 homers in 187 games split between the Pac 12 and SEC. He absolutely destroys the baseball with huge exit velocities. That gives him a no doubt carrying tool that will make him a fantasy force. As for the trade, it really doesn’t change his value at all. The path to playing time is clearer, but it’s an organization downgrade and a future lineup downgrade. It’s also a ballpark downgrade. If anything, it makes me like him slightly less, but again, this really shouldn’t change his value too much. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/28/89/.251/.333/.475/6

12) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B, 22.2 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Caglionone’s pro debut was on the disappointing side, and with how tightly packed the talent is in the FYPD Top 12, he’s sliding down my rankings to the bottom of that Top 12 tier. He had hit tool and chase questions coming out of the draft, and hitting .241 with a 20.6/5.6 K%/BB% in his 29 game pro debut at High-A did nothing to quell those issues. He put up a lowly 94 wRC+ with 2 homers, which isn’t what you want to see from an elite college bat in the lower minors. He then went to the AFL where the pitching was so bad this year, they are actively trying to figure out how to improve the pitchers in that league in future years, and he still couldn’t dominate with a .749 OPS in 21 games. Tons of hitters were putting up just wacky numbers in that extreme offensive environment. He did jack 5 homers, and there is zero doubt about his massive power, so there is no doubt he has a carrying tool even if the hit tool and plate approach take time to adjust to pro pitching. He’s built like an NFL tight end at 6’5”, 250 pounds, and he obliterated the SEC with 75 homers in 165 career games. It took him some time to improve his plate skills in college as well, making big improvements his junior year with a 8.2/18.4 K%/BB% (18.2/5.3 K%/BB% his sophomore year), so the hope is that he can do the same in the majors. KC’s ballpark is death to lefty homers, and while I am factoring that in a bit, he has the type of power to not get too hung up on it. Even though the pro debut does have him sliding down the rankings a bit, it’s almost more because of how much comparable college talent there is at the top of this class to begin with. He’s still a very exciting power bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/31/92/.248/.329/.479/6

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Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Top 154 2025 Shortstop Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

It’s fitting that the rankings of the Golden Children of the baseball world, shortstops, fall on the same week as the hyped up New Year’s Eve. Both get juiced up in the rankings, and while they can often end up underwhelming, when they hit, they hit big. I went 154 deep on the the Patreon with the Top 5 free on the Brick Wall down below. Top 78 Catchers, Top 83 1B, Top 98 2B, and Top 109 3B are already completed. Here is the Top 154 2025 Shortstop Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

1) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.10 – In leagues where Ohtani can’t be used as both a pitcher and hitter (weekly leagues or leagues where Ohtani is split into two players), age does start to become more of a factor, so in those leagues, Bobby Witt Jr. would be crowned the #1 dynasty player in the game. Coming off his rookie season in 2022, he improved in almost every facet of the game in 2023, and then he once again improved in every facet of the game in 2024. Someone tell Bobby that development isn’t linear, because his development is a straight line to the moon. He put up career bests in Barrel% (14.3%), EV (92.7 MPH), Max EV (116.9 MPH), xwOBA (.413), K% (15%), and BB% (8.0%). His 74.7 MPH bat speed is elite, which makes his contact rates even more impressive, because that bat speed/contact combo is in even more rarified air. He’s also the fastest man in baseball by a good margin with a 30.5 ft/sec sprint. It all resulted in a .332/32/31 season, and seeing how he’s only gotten better every single season, there might just be another level in here. 40/40 here we come. – 2025 Projection: 118/35/104/.315/.379/.555/39

2) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS, 23.3 – Risk? What risk? I laugh in the face risk, ranking Elly 9th overall last off-season, and finishing his blurb by writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” That not so risky risk paid off in a huge way in 2024 with Elly going .259/25/67. Those 67 steals led the league by a large margin, lapping most of the field. He’s one of, if not the most electric player in the game at 6’5” with an elite 75.2 MPH swing (his lefty swing is super elite, while his righty swing is more near elite) and 30.0/sec sprint speed. He crushes the ball with a 91.8 MPH EV, he brought his launch up as expected to a respectable 9.7 degrees, he brought his chase down to an above average 26.9%, and he kept his strikeout rate in a reasonable enough range (31.3%) to let the insane talent shine. And this is just the beginning. If he can continue to improve his plate skills and raise that launch, which I wouldn’t see why that isn’t the expectation at just 23 years old, I shutter to think about what kind of numbers are possible. – 2025 Projection: 110/31/89/.267/.348/.515/59

3) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS, 23.9 – Henderson massively improved on basically the only three weaknesses of his game in 2024, which easily propelled him into a Top 5 dynasty asset. He put up a .829 OPS vs. lefties in 2024 after a notching a lowly .618 OPS in 2023. I never let Gunnar’s struggles vs. lefties hold his ranking back, even when it was a major point of contention in is his prospect years, and I think it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating lefty hitting prospects. You often don’t get that many reps against lefties, so you often see that skill develop over time when they get into the majors. Don’t let it scare you off. He also improved his base stealing, nabbing 21 bags in 25 attempts after stealing only 10 bags in 2023. Granted this one was more a fantasy skill than a real life skill, as he was an excellent base runner overall in both years. And finally, he improved his hit tool, putting up a 22.1% K%, 24.4% whiff%, and a .281 BA. He combined all of those improvements while continuing to smash the ball with a 92.8 MPH EV, leading to 37 homers. He still doesn’t steal quite enough to pop him over Witt or Elly, but he is right there with those guys, and if steals are devalued in your league, like in points or 6+ hitting category leagues, Gunnar would slid in ahead of Elly. – 2025 Projection: 116/35/99/.280/.370/.535/18

4) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 31.4 – Lindor gutted it out with a back injury to close out the season and into playoffs, requiring extra injections to get back on the field, and while I respect the hell out of his heart (130 wRC+ in 13 playoff games), I do hope it’s something that doesn’t come back to bite him early in 2025. Sometimes things like that can throw off your normal off-season routine, creating an uphill battle all season. While it’s something to think about, it would be much too cautious to plan on Lindor being anything other than a stud next year. After going 31/31 in 2023, he followed that up in 2024 with a 33/29 season. His 137 wRC+, 13.6% Barrel% and .382 xwOBA were all career highs. As long as the back isn’t an issue, I don’t see why he wouldn’t go 30/30 again. If the back is an issue, there is a chance he doesn’t run quite as much. 2025 Projection: 103/31/94/.268/.340/.485/26

5) Oneil CruzPIT, OF/SS, 26.6 – Saying that Cruz’ 95.5 MPH EV is elite would be an understatement. It is in all time great territory, trailing only Judge and Ohtani, two all time greats. His 78.6 MPH swing speed is also super elite, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton’s 81.2 MPH swing (Stanton laps the field, with nobody even close to him). And he also has double plus speed with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. This is an extremely special talent. Yes, there is hit tool risk with a 34.1% whiff% and 30.1% K%, but I really don’t think it’s as risky at it seems. He hit .259 this year with a .266 xBA, and in 1,009 career PA he has a .250 BA. He can clearly thrive with the elevated swing and miss. He put together a strong year in 2024 with 21 homers and 22 steals in 23 attempts in 146 games, but he is merely just scratching the surface of what he’s capable of. He was a major target coming into the year, and he turned into an elite dynasty asset. Make sure you treat him like one this off-season. He ranked 24th overall on the Top 25 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings which is free on the Brick Wall (full Top 135 Sneak Peek is on Patreon).  – 2025 Projection: 84/27/92/.255/.328/.474/26

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 135 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ coming next week)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
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-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Top 109 2025 Third Base Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

I’m sure you’re all enjoying spending time with your family this week. Or at least tolerating spending time with your family this week ;). Or if you’re alone, don’t get too down, and maybe dive into dynasty baseball more! I’m not leaving you in the lurch this week or next! I’ll be right there with the Top 109 3B Rankings out now on the Patreon (Top 5 free down below on the Brick Wall), and with the Shortstop Rankings coming next week. The Top 78 Catchers, Top 83 1B, and Top 92 2B are already up. Happy Holidays! Happy New Year! Here is the Top 109 2025 Third Base Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

1) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 32.6 – Ramirez had the quietest 39/41 season of all time. Barely heard about it. The pomp and circumstance around Ohtani was too loud for anyone else to get their fair due. Or maybe it’s because he doesn’t play in a large market that Ramriez’ entire spectacular career doesn’t really get the respect he deserves. He’s only 5’9”. He doesn’t smash the ball like the true giants of the game. He doesn’t have elite speed. He doesn’t swing the fastest bat. He’s an everyman who quietly goes about his business with elite season after elite season. He does it with elite contact skills (12% K%), elite lift (19.6 degree launch) and elite pull ability (52.8% Pull%). He also hits the ball plenty hard with an 89.2 MPH EV. The only question is how long can he do it for at 32 years old. He obviously showed zero signs of slowing down in 2024, and like I mentioned in the Aaron Judge blurb, 33 years old is really the first year I start to seriously consider selling elite players like this. I’m not going to dock him for his age too much. He’s an elite win now piece. – 2025 Projection: 102/33/106/.280/.344/.520/33

2) Jazz Chisholm – NYY, 3B/OF, 27.2 – I ranked Jazz 34th overall on the 2024 Top 1,000, absolutely refusing to fade a player with such a beastly power/speed combo, and named him a major target, writing, “Buy the injury discount. His proven upside is way way way too high to let your fear control you. He was on a 30/30 pace this year. The hit tool isn’t great, but he has 1,193 PA with a .245 BA. That is a large enough sample where I’m not too worried about the bottom falling out. If you want to shy away from mediocre talents due to injury concern, that is fine with me. Even shying away from good talents is reasonable. But you don’t shy away from near elite talents like Chisholm.” And what he just did in 2024 is why you don’t fade this kind of talent. He slashed .256/.324/.436 with 24 homers, 40 steals, and a 24.5/8.5 K%/BB% in 147 games. He was playing well with the Marlins, but he exploded when he got the Yanks with 11 homers, 18 steals and a 132 wRC+ in 46 games. It’s not even that he hit particularly well at Yankee Stadium, it just seemed to light a fire under him, but for sure it’s also a big home field upgrade for him. And the most important thing of all is that he stayed healthy. Health is the main reason why people faded him, and unfortunately, it still has to be taken into account in his price. Staying healthy one season is good, but he needs to go back to back healthy seasons for me to take “injury risk” off his resume, or at least have it downplayed. We saw Robert stay basically healthy in 2023, only to again miss a large chunk of the season in 2024. Jazz could easily follow that same path. – 2025 Projection: 87/25/84/.252/.323/.455/33

3) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 28.1 – Riley seemingly had a down year on the surface with a 116 wRC+ in 110 games, but there is not a single thing to be worried about. His .366 xwOBA was much better than his .338 wOBA, and was in the top 8% of baseball. He was also in the midst of bringing up his season numbers to career norms with a .942 OPS in his last 57 games before his regular season ended with a right hand fracture in mid August. His 93.3 MPH EV and 53.4% Hard Hit% were actually career highs by a good margin, so he’s never hit the ball harder. Have zero concern about Riley moving forward. He’ll do his usual .275 BA with 35 homer thing in 2025. – 2025 Projection: 96/34/94/.273/.339/.513/2

4) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 28.5 – Devers is consistently one of easiest evaluations in the game. He consistently smashes the ball with elite EV and a swing that is geared for both power and average. You can bank on about .270+/30+ every single year. Just call him Dollar Bill Devers, because you can take him to the bank. But there is one thing sticking in my craw this year, which is that he battled shoulder issues in both shoulders this season. His season ended in late September with shoulder inflammation. There was no structural damage and he won’t require surgery, but shoulders are damn important for hitting, and it’s a concern that this shoulder “inflammation” can keep popping up down the line. He’s going to be 28 next year, which is still smack dab in his prime, but he is starting to creep up there a bit. I’m not dinging him too much for it, but it’s why he’s not ranked 10 spots higher on the overall dynasty rankings. – 2025 Projection: 90/31/98/.274/.354/.510/3

5) Junior CamineroTBR, 3B, 21.9 – Caminero swings the 9th fastest bat in baseball at 77.2 MPH. He hits the ball very, very hard with a 93.3 MPH EV at Triple-A, and a 89.7 MPH EV, 11.8% Barrel%, and a 45.7% Hard Hit% in the majors. And the best part of all is that he’s had above average strikeout rates most of his career, putting up a very respectable 21.5% K% in 43 MLB games. There is almost no way this guy isn’t going to start raking his face off in the very near future. The swing is a little on the long side, the 31.7% whiff% doesn’t look as good as the K rates, he chases a lot with a 35.4 Chase%, and the launch is low at 6.8 degrees, but he legitimately has the type of profile that can make all of those things work and still put up big numbers. And at only 21 years old, his plate skills and launch are only going to improve. He’s right on track to be one of the best hit/power combo bats in the game, and if there is any buy window based on the small, mediocre MLB sample, I would be all over it. He ranked 48th overall on A Top 135 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2025 Projection: 74/24/83/.262/.319/.461/5 Prime Projection: 89/33/103/.279/.343/.516/7

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 135 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
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-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Boston Red Sox 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The Red Sox have been smack dab in the middle of Hot Stove season with their blockbuster Garrett Crochet trade, and because I already did the White Sox Team Report, I’m going to include Montgomery, Teel and Meidroth in these rankings. I’m also going to include Garrett Crochet in the MLB section. The only rules to these Team Reports are that there are no rules ;). I also go over all of the Hot Stove action from the last week or so in the Strategy/Thoughts section below. But first, here is the Boston Red Sox 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 135 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B– Top 98 2B
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

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Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 25.3 – Casas missed 4 months of the season after suffering torn cartilage in his ribs in late April. I’ve had two pretty big rib injuries in my life, once playing tackle football with my knucklehead friends when we were like 18 years old (no pads, just pickup tackle), and once playing flag football in my law school league. I guess maybe the lesson is that tackle football isn’t any more dangerous than flag football 😉 … but point being, when you hurt your ribs, any movement at all can be extremely painful. It’s not surprising that Casas was rusty when he returned in mid August, but by the end of the season, he was starting to hit his stride with 5 homers and a 1.026 OPS in is final 12 games. The rib injury was a small bump in the road, but that was all it was as he’s still on the path to being one of the top slugging 1B in baseball. He swings a double plus 74.6 MPH bat, which is really all you need to know about how legit his power is. His 90.2/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV also backs up how elite his power is, and he’s never had any launch issues in his career, so there are zero worries there either. The only worry is that the hit tool ends up below average with a 32.2% whiff%, but it was better in 2023 (28.1% whiff%), and even with a below average hit tool, he will still be a beast with high OBP’s (12.3% BB%). Buy any discount you can on Casas, especially in OBP and 6+ hitting cat leagues. He’s going to be a monster. – 2025 Projection: 86/32/94/.253/.348/.514/1

Wilyer AbreuBOS, OF, 25.9 – Back on August 3rd, 2023, literally mere moments before Abreu went on a crazy run at Triple-A that ended up with him raking in the majors, I got this feeling about him that I just couldn’t shake, naming him a target and writing, “there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing.” … and now that we have bat tracking data, I see why I just couldn’t shake how much I loved his swing, and it’s because not only is it smooth, but it’s lightning fast with a near elite 74.6 MPH bat speed. It’s no wonder he’s kept on raking in the bigs right through 2024 with a 114 wRC+ in 132 games. He uses that swing to absolutely crush the ball with a 50.5% Hard Hit%, 11.1% Barrel%, 91.6 MPH EV,  and a 19.2 degree launch. It only resulted in 15 homers in 132 games, but that is so clearly on the very low end of his true talent, and he racked up 33 doubles. With that swing and batted ball data, there is zero doubt his bat is legit, but there are reasons to remain cautious. For one, he was horrible vs. lefties (.532 OPS in 67 PA), and especially with how deep Boston is, he looks like a strict platoon bat. The other big issue is the hit tool as he had a 28% K% and .229 xBA (.253 BA). The 29.6% whiff% isn’t too bad, so I’m not concerned the hit tool is going to tank or anything, but it’s clearly below average. He likes to run a bit with 8 steals, which isn’t huge, but it’s a nice little boost, and he’s a really good right fielder, so his glove will certainly help keep him on the field. I would be absolutely all over him if he could hit lefties or if he was in a situation where he would get the leash to get better against them, but I don’t see that in Boston. That leaves him as solid dynasty asset (Top 200-250 range), rather than a truly coveted one. 2025 Projection: 69/20/71/.251/.325/.465/9

 Jarren Duran – BOS, OF, 28.7 – Duran’s hit tool and plate approach have improved every year of his 4 year career, and considering how electric of a player he is, that is all he need to go nuclear. He slashed .285/.342/.492 with 21 homers, 34 steals and a 21.8/7.3 K%/BB% in 160 games. He has elite speed with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint, he hits the ball very hard with a 90.8 MPH EV, and he has plus bat speed with a 73.6 MPH swing. There is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers to say this year was a fluke, and with how he’s improved every year of his career (48 wRC+ in 2021, 77 wRC+ in 2022, 120 wRC+ in 2023, 129 wRC+ in 2024), who is to say he can’t do it again in 2025. I’m all in. He ranked 23rd overall on the Top 25 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings which is free on the Brick Wall (full Top 135 Sneak Peek is on Patreon). 2025 Projection: 101/23/83/.280/.341/.476/33

Pitchers

Garrett Crochet BOS, LHP, 25.9 – Paul Skenes is the no doubt #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. I’m not arguing that … buuuuuuuuuuuut … what if Crochet is actually better than him? He put up a better K% (35.1% vs. 33.1%), BB% (5.5% vs. 6.2%), Chase% (33.5% vs. 30.9%), and a much better whiff% (33.0% vs. 28.7%). His 97.2 MPH 4-seamer put up a 31.4% whiff% while Skenes’ 98.8 MPH 4-seamer put up a 24.2% whiff%. Crochet’s cutter put up a 32.7% whiff% while Skenes’ sinker notched a 29.3% whiff%. Crochet’s sweeper notched a 42.7% whiff% while Skenes’ sweeper notched a 22.6% whiff% and his curve notched a 33.7% whiff%. They are both beastly athletes. I described the 6’6”, 245 pound Crochet as a WWE Ballerina in my March Mailbag Podcast. With Chicago, he couldn’t touch Skenes in wins, but he’s in Boston now, and just judging who is the better pitcher, I wouldn’t be so sure the answer is Skenes. Now, Skenes dusted him on ERA (3.58 vs. 1.96), and even though their xERA’s were much much closer (2.83 vs. 2.50), I do think that matters. Crochet also has more of a track record of control problems than Skenes does. Like I said, Skenes is the undeniable #1 dynasty pitcher in the game … but maybe … he won’t be at the end of 2025. Crochet ranked 29th overall on the Top 135 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. – 2025 Projection: 15/3.03/1.03/230 in 170 IP

Tanner HouckBOS, RHP, 28.9 – Houck put up a 3.12 ERA in 178.2 IP, but let’s see what all the ERA estimators say about that. SIERA isn’t buying it at 3.73. xERA hates his guts at 4.11. xFIP is a bit more forgiving, but still not all the way in at 3.58. And then there is the OG ERA estimator, FIP, and FIP is kinda digging it at 3.32. FIP isn’t cool anymore with all the new kids on the block, but FIP was banging back before xERA was even a thought, so maybe we put some respect back on it’s name. Houck’s walk rate took a big step forward, moving into plus territory with a 6.5% BB% (8.9% in 2023). His sweeper was the 5th most valuable sweeper in baseball. His splitter was the 5th most valuable splitter in baseball. And his sinker was an above average pitch that kept the ball on the ground with a 2 degree launch. With a 215 NFBC ADP, nobody is really buying in, but maybe FIP is on to something? I can’t deny that I too don’t buy it, because strikeouts are king for fantasy, and he simply didn’t miss enough bats with a 20.7% K% and 22.6% whiff%, but he has a career 26.7% whiff%, so it’s not like the ability isn’t in there. I agree with the masses to not buy into his career year, but I have the old wise FIP whispering in my ear to maybe not be so skeptical. I’m still not buying, but I hear ya, FIP, and I will give you your respect if Houck does repeat his big year, or maybe even builds off it. 2025 Projection: 11/3.67/1.19/159 in 172 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Kristian Campbell BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 – Campbell possesses one of the most visually disgusting swings I have ever seen, and I mean that in the best way possible. It looks like he literally unhinges his shoulder to turn his body into a cannon, absolutely unfurling on the baseball. Here is what I wrote about a homer Campbell hit in early September in the in-season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns: “on his latest homer, I think he dislocated his shoulder with one of the most bad intentions swings I’ve seen.”  Underscoring my visual evaluation of that explosive shoulder movement is that shortly after that homer he hit the IL with a lat strain, which is right under the shoulder blades. Campbell underwent a well documented swing change and bat speed training to unlock more power last off-season, which was obviously successful beyond anybody’s wildest imagination, so let’s just hope that it’s not going to cause more injuries. That is the only small thing that is even rattling around in my brain as a negative, because the season he just had was nothing short or spectacular. He slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers, 24 steals, and a 19.9/14.3 K%/BB% in 115 games spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He was just as dominant in the upper minors as he was at High-A with across the board destruction. He hits it hard, he has a good feel to hit, he has a good approach, he has size (6’3”, 191 pounds), he has bat speed, he can lift it, and he has speed. You can be hesitant to fully buy in because it feels like he came out of nowhere, but he put up a 1.033 OPS in 45 games in the ACC in 2023, a .932 OPS in 58 games in 2022 in the Northwoods League, and then a .911 OPS in 22 games at mostly High-A in his pro debut, so it’s not his fault that everyone underrated him. He always had a good feel to hit and good approach, and he always had the frame and athleticism to tack on more power, so I’m not going to hold it against him that he wasn’t more hyped (4th round pick in 2023). He still didn’t lift and pull the ball a ton with an under 40% Pull% and under 30% FB%, but he knew when to pick his spots (as you saw with that homer video above), and he has the type of profile that can thrive without an extreme lift and pull profile. I’m all in on Campbell. He’s an elite prospect who has a chance to break camp in the bigs. 2025 Projection: 68/16/61/.252/.324/.423/19 Prime Projection: 98/26/89/.277/.356/.478/26

2) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 20.11 – Because the rule of prospecting is that if you are even the smallest, tiniest, teeny bit lower on a prospect than other prospectors (most to all have Anthony over Campbell, while I have it the other way around), you must bash that prospect with an overly critical lens, let me start with the negatives here. For one, Anthony isn’t the best base stealer with a career 38 steals in 52 attempts (he was 21 for 28 last year), so there is risk that he doesn’t run as much in the majors as we hope. Secondly, he hits the ball on the ground a lot with an around 50% GB% in 2024, which could limit his homer upside. And lastly, there is some hit tool risk with a 23.5% K%. Now that we got that out of the way, let me just say that I obviously love Anthony. He’s a legit 50/50 coin flip with Campbell, and he’s a no doubt elite prospect. He started the season as a 19 year old in the upper minors and obliterated both Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .291/.396/.498 with 18 homers, 21 steals, and a 23.5/14.6 K%/BB% in 119 games. He crushes the ball, he has speed, he has size, he has elite age to level production, and he hit both lefties and righties well in 2024. He’s as close to a Gunnar Henderson clone as there is, and if you wanted to put him even as the #1 prospect in baseball, I wouldn’t argue with you. He’s going to be a beast. 2025 Projection: 46/12/41/.250/.323/.420/8 Prime Projection: 92/31/98/.272/.363/.493/18

3) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 22.3 – Mayer was the 4th overall pick in the draft and just put up a 142 wRC+ in his age 21 year old season at Double-A, and the hype still feels so subdued on him. He might have to get used to that, because it seems like he’s setting up for a Bryan Reynolds-like fantasy career. Really good, but not good enough for anyone to seemingly care to really gush over him. That 142 wRC+ came with only 8 homers and 13 steals in 77 games. He did it on the back of the hit tool with a .307 BA and 19.7/9.0 K%/BB%, but the .367 BABIP did some of that heavy lifting, and his strikeout rates have been on the high side throughout his career, so you can’t really bank on a truly elite hit tool long term. His sweet lefty swing at 6’3” is what got him drafted so highly, and that swing is still special with power and quickness, but it’s geared more for all around hitting than pure homer power with a 47.4% GB% and 26.5% FB%. He’s a good baserunner, but he’s not a burner, so you can’t count on huge steal totals either. Reynolds is really the perfect comp with his 162 game career averages of a .276 BA, .352 OBP, 25 homers and 8 steals. Maybe playing with Boston instead of Pittsburgh will garner him more hype in the long run, but fantasy wise, that equals a really good fantasy player who never quite reaches great levels. 2025 Projection: 28/8/33/.256/.318/.415/6 Prime Projection: 91/25/93/.276/.352/.470/11

*I know that Montgomery and Teel are no longer on the Sox, they are now on the Sox, but I’m including them here because I already did the Chicago write-up, and I didn’t want to skip them completely in the Team Reports … Meidroth I’m fine with skipping 😉 … kidding … sorta, he’s fine, I like him (and I included him below too).

4) Braden MontgomeryCHW, OF, 22.0 – Selected 12th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, there was a lot of talk about Montgomery dropping his righty swing to hit exclusively lefty. That doesn’t really seem like what you want to hear from a highly drafted college bat, but the lefty swing is so smooth and powerful I get why it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal overall. He also had a 20% K% which is substantially higher than the college bats drafted before him. Maybe that is partly why he slipped a bit to 12th overall, and also why Boston was willing to include him in the Crochet trade. The broken ankle which he suffered pre draft on June 8th was also likely a major reason for the drop. So he certainly has some risk with hit tool, platooning and injury, but he also has very major power upside. He’s 6’2”, 220 pounds and he smashed 27 homers with a 1.187 OPS in 61 games in the SEC. He’s been smashing homers his entire career with 62 homers in 187 games split between the Pac 12 and SEC. He absolutely destroys the baseball with huge exit velocities. That gives him a no doubt carrying tool that will make him a fantasy force. As for the trade, it really doesn’t change his value at all. The path to playing time is clearer, but it’s an organization downgrade and a future lineup downgrade. It’s also a ballpark downgrade. If anything, it makes me like him slightly less, but again, this really shouldn’t change his value. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/28/91/.252/.333/.480/6

5) Kyle Teel CHW, C, 23.2 – Teel was known as a high floor, lower ceiling, quick moving college catcher in last year’s FYPD, and that is exactly what he did in 2024. He slashed .288/.386/.433 with 13 homers, 12 steals, and a 23.0/13.5 K%/BB% in 112 games split between Double-A (145 wRC+) and Triple-A (97 wRC+). His 86.3 MPH EV at Triple-A isn’t super impressive, but he knows how to lift and pull it, so he should get the most out of his raw power. He’s also a good athlete who likes to run relative to other catchers, so that can help his fantasy value even if the homer totals aren’t huge. He had a crystal clear path to Boston’s starting catcher job of the future (and the present), but with his trade to Chicago, he now has to battle it out with Edgar Quero. You have to think Teel is the favorite for most of the at bats, but that might be a bad assumption, and at the end of the day, that will get decided on the field. The trade probably doesn’t change Teel’s dynasty value too much in the grand scheme of things, but it’s a ballpark hit, organization hit, and a bit of a path to playing time hit. – 2025 Projection: 31/7/34/.244/.311/.383/4 Prime Projection: 74/17/68/.268/.342/.430/9

6) Jhostynxon Garcia – BOS, OF, 22.3 – Garcia is one of my top prospect targets relative to perceived value, and he was one of several prospect targets I named in my End of Season Mailbag Podcast (Patreon). He has legit thunder in his bat with a quick and powerful righty swing that resulted in 23 homers in 107 games. He hits the ball really hard and he lifts it with all fields power. He’s also a good athlete who can play CF, and he’ll run a bit too with 17 steals. He started the year at Single-A and flew all the way through to Double-A by mid August. He wasn’t quite as good at Double-A as he was in the lower minors, but he still put up an above average 103 wRC+, and the most important thing is that his K rate didn’t skyrocket with a 19% K%. The hit tool and plate approach are certainly the biggest risk here with a 21.6/7.2 K%/BB% overall, but the K rate actually got better at each higher level, and he walked a ton in 2021-23, so he has that skill in there. His combination of power, athleticism and good OF defense is very enticing, and the hit tool was actually pretty decent this year. Boston is crowded, so he doesn’t have a path to playing time, but trades happen and injuries/ineffectiveness happens too, so he’ll get his shot eventually, and when he does, we could be looking at a guy who puts up big EV’s with a high launch, above average sprint, positive defense value, and good enough K rates. He can be a legit impact fantasy bat going for a price way under that right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/84/.247/.321/.458/12

7) Yoeilin Cespedes BOS, SS/2B, 19.7 – Cespedes’ season ended on June 21st a broken hamate, but he was one of the top rookie ball breakouts before going down with the injury. He slashed .319/.400/.615 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 18.1/11.4 K%/BB% in 25 games. It was good for a 163 wRC+, and this was coming off the 145 wRC+ he put up in the DSL in 2023. He’s a lift and pull machine who takes absolute daddy hacks at the dish with a monster righty swing. He swings much bigger than his 5’8” size would indicate. I’m thinking the contact rates could take a step back in full season ball, but I believe in the power despite not being a huge human being. If the contact rates don’t take a step back, we could be looking at a very potent hit/power combo, and even if they do, he should remain a very good prospect. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.268/.329/.458/8

8) Franklin Arias – BOS, SS/2B, 19.4 – I have Arias in the same category that I had Jefferson Rojas in last off-season when Rojas was getting a ton of hype. They don’t jump off the screen, they don’t have huge size, and they don’t have huge tools, but they are just really good baseball players who do a lot of things well on a baseball field. I like them, and I definitely like them for real life, but they are probably a bit overrated for fantasy. Arias demolished rookie ball with a 181 wRC+ on the back of elite plate skills with a 17.5/16.5 K%/BB% in 51 games. He then got the call to Single-A and wasn’t as impressive, slashing .257/.311/.378 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.5/9.6 K%/BB% in 36 games. He was only 18, so that is still a very solid line, but I do think it underscores how the production might not look so outsized against more advanced competition. He hit 9 homers in 87 games, so he has some pop, and he stole 35 bags, so a he’s a good baserunner despite not being a burner. An up the middle glove with good contact rates and some power and speed is a really high floor real life profile, but we play fantasy, and we want upside. He’s a Top 100-ish fantasy prospect, so again, I like him, but I don’t think he’s a truly coveted one. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/18/68/.273/.338/.428/15

9) Chase MeidrothCHW, 2B/3B/SS, 23.9 – Meidroth was part of the return for Garrett Crochet, and if Chicago didn’t think he has a very good chance of being a starting caliber player, why would they even want him included. It sure feels like he’s the favorite for the starting 2B job right out of the gate, which is a big boost to his value. Unfortunately, that big boost still doesn’t boost him very high in my book. The power is lacking with only 7 homers, a 5 degree launch, and a 2.2% Barrel% in 122 games at Triple-A, and so is the speed with 13 steals in 19 attempts. An elite plate approach is his game with a 12.7/18.8 K%/BB%, which led to a .293 BA, .437 OBP, and a 132 wRC+. His 88.6 MPH EV also isn’t bad, so while it hasn’t led to homers, it could be good enough to maintain the high BA/OBP on the MLB level. If he were potentially hitting atop a really good lineup, I could see real fantasy value here, but in the White Sox lineup, the fantasy value is likely to be lacking for the next few seasons. I can see a path to a solid fantasy player, but it’s not a journey I’m looking to go on. – 2025 Projection: 63/11/49/.255/.320/.386/7 Prime Projection: 84/15/61/.276/.352/.416/9

10) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 21.1 – We already knew that Bleis was not going to be that rocket ship elite prospect that we hoped for after his disappointing 2023 season, and as often happens with these uber talented, close to a breakout but never quite breaks out prospects (see Alex Ramirez), they can just sit in the breakout waiting room for years, sometimes all the way into their late 20’s. So I fear Bleis is going to get comfortable in this breakout waiting room, but that is where he is after another mediocre at best season. He conquered Single-A with a 123 wRC+, but he was a 20 year old repeating the level, and he struggled when he got to the more age appropriate High-A with a 70 wRC+ in 50 games. That hit tool is still quite raw with a .221 BA on the season. The good news is that the upper echelon talent is still here with 11 homers, 38 steals, and a lift and pull profile. The hit tool isn’t good, but a 21.4/9.1 K%/BB% isn’t too bad. He also has a good glove in the OF. Is he just Alex Ramirez 2.0? Probably. But even Alex Ramirez can still breakout down the line, and Bleis certainly can too. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 67/20/71/.241/.309/.417/23

11) Yordanny Monegro – BOS, RHP, 22.5 – Monegro is one of my top pitching prospect targets relative his extreme lack of hype. He checks a hell of a lot of boxes with size (6’4”, 180 pounds), mid 90’s velocity, diverse pitch mix, nasty secondaries, and excellent production. He put up a 2.73 ERA with a 30.8/9.8 K%/BB% in 66 IP at High-A. He has an explosive righty delivery with a mid 90s 4-seamer, 2-seamer, a nasty change, and 2 good breaking balls in his slider and curve. He’s not a finished product as he has to continue to refine his control/command and all of his secondaries, plus he hasn’t thrown that many innings in his career (76 IP was a career high this year), but all of that is way over factored into his price. He’s a pretty special talent who has done nothing but dominate for the past two years when he’s been on the mound. If he keeps it up at Double-A, his price should take a big jump in 2025. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.76/1.21/169 in 160 IP

Just Missed

12) Luis Perales – BOS, RHP, 22.0

13) David Sandlin BOS, RHP, 24.1

14) Jedixson Paez BOS, RHP, 21.2

15) Juan Valera – BOS, RHP, 18.10 

16) Mikey Romero BOS, 2B/SS, 21.3 – Here is what I wrote about Romero in the in-season Dynasty Rundowns towards the end of the season, and my thoughts remain the same: “The Red Sox 1st round pick, 24th overall, in 2022 has been almost completely ignored by everyone, including me, but Mikey is demanding our attention right now after calmly jacking out his 4th homer in 7 games since getting called up to Double-A as a 20 year old. He had 10 homers in 59 games at High-A. The reason he has been ignored is because he doesn’t have big raw power, he doesn’t have speed (1 steal all season), and his hit tool/plate approach isn’t particularly good either with a 21.9/5.0 K%/BB% in 60 games overall. Those deficiencies still make me pretty lackluster on his future potential, but production matters, and the guy is no doubt producing while being super young for the level. Maybe he can lift and pull his way into like Connor Norby type territory.” … He closed out the season at Double-A with 6 homers and a 33.8/2.7 K%/BB% in 16 games. That K rate is scary, but he was just 20 years old getting a taste of the upper minors. It was much better at High-A with a 21% K%. He’s getting no love, but the guy was picked 24th overall, he reached Double-A by 20 and showed he can do damage against upper minors pitching. I don’t think he’s a major dynasty asset either, but show the guy just a little bit of love, will ya. He ranked 86th overall on the Top 98 2025 Second Base Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/17/71/.245/.303/.412/3

17) Blaze Jordan – BOS, 3B/1B, 22.3 – I wasn’t sure Jordan deserved to crack this list with his 2nd straight year of poor performance at Double-A (98 wRC+ in 89 games), but that 12.1% K% is still pretty impressive. He has good raw power despite hitting only 7 homers, and being 21 years old at Double-A is still on the slightly young side. He doesn’t have much defensive value, but he can play a decent 3B, so it’s not like he doesn’t have any at all. I doubt he finds a role on the Red Sox, but I’ll take a shot on his contact/power combo at this point in the rankings. He ranked 75th overall on the Top 83 2025 First Base Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/18/76/.266/.315/.421/3

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Here is a round up of all the latest moves since my last roundup of all the latest moves. The Hot Stove is moving fast right now:

The Marlins trade Jesus Luzardo and Paul McIntosh to Philly for Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd

Man, I wish I had the Marlins in my dynasty leagues, giving up nearly elite upside starters for light hitting speedsters. I thought Caba was getting a bit overrated (certainly for fantasy), and obviously Philly didn’t view him as untouchable either. If you can pull the same sell high move for Caba that Philly just did, I would jump on it. As all dynasty owners know too well, I bet you there is another team out there going, “they sold Luzardo for that? My offer was 3 times better than that!!” hah. Also, hasn’t Miami acquired enough of these guys with Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Jared Serna, Max Acosta, Javier Sanoja, Vidal Brujan, and more. I mean, how many of them do you need? How about targeting some impact. I get they have more value in real life, but still. I’m probably being overly harsh as it’s not like Caba and Boyd are devoid of upside,  but they have 6 total homers in 314 career games between the two of them. As for Luzardo, he was already one of my favorite bounce back targets in 2025, and I like him even more now that a good team was willing to trade for him.

The Cubbies trade Cody Bellinger to the Yanks for Cody Poteet

This is a monster ballpark upgrade for Cody Bellinger. He goes from the 5th worst ballpark for lefty homers to the 7th best, and he needs all the help he can get with tons of flyballs and weak exit velocities. This is the exact ballpark that Bellinger can thrive in, and he’s coming from one that particularly depresses his skills. He had a .700 OPS at home vs. a .797 OPS on the road in 2024. I’m not saying you can bank on a monster season, but I am saying there is now some legit upside for it. His value gets a definite bump.

The Yankees sign Paul Goldschmidt for 1 year, $12.5 million

Once the Yankees lost Juan Soto, it was pretty clear they weren’t going to leave their 1B spot open, but signing Goldy to a one year deal is basically the best case scenario for Ben Rice. I already went over how much I like Rice, and without a long term option at 1B, that gives Rice 2025 to prove he should be the man in 2026 and beyond. Rice is a hold or cheap buy if you have the room on your roster or are in a rebuild. As for Goldy, his value doesn’t change as a still solid win now piece, but he’s a good reminder of how fast a players dynasty trade value can fall off as they get deeper into their 30’s. If you traded Goldy 2 years ago, or even last off-season, you could have gotten a pretty big return, but now, nobody is going to give you much. I’m just saying it could be a good time to put Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve on the market while their value is still solid. It’s better to sell a year early than a year late.

The Rays trade Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez to Oakland for Joe Boyle, Will Simpson, Jacob Watters and a Draft Pick

Leaving Tampa for Oakland is a big organization downgrade for Springs and Lopez, and that 100% isn’t only for development, that is for pitch calling, defensive alignment, etc … which all impacts production in a major way. But Tampa has a rotation logjam, so getting out is good for Springs in particular regardless of the downgrade. I don’t like him as much in Oakland without Tampa’s magic to maximize his skillset, and he already didn’t look great in 2024 with the velocity down, the K/BB rates down, and more elbow issues. He might be more name value than real value right now. I’m probably not buying unless he falls into my lap. As for the players going to Tampa, that is an upgrade for all of them. Boyle likely ends up in the bullpen, but a Tampa exec talked about being extra patient with guys like Boyle (huge upside), so who knows what Tampa can do. Simpson I already liked, cracking my 1B Rankings at 69th overall, and seeing Tampa target him in this return makes me like him even more.

The Rangers trade Nate Lowe to Washington for Robert Garcia and then signed Joc Pederson for 2 years, $37 million to essentially replace Lowe

Like every Nate Lowe dynasty owner, you only own Nate Lowe because you can’t figure out a better option. But Texas did the right thing, which is to just rip the band-aid off and move on. Lowe is a crutch, preventing you from thriving. Find your Jake Burger and Joc Pederson’s to replace the Nate Lowe’s on your team. The Nationals on the other hand were desperate enough for 1B that it made sense for them. Christian Walker and Goldy both seemed to reject them. Their former options were Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro, which I’m not even sure how you run an organization and end up with those two as your best options at 1B. So Lowe clearly makes sense for them. I was semi interested in Chaparro if he made it through the off-season with a shot at the 1B job, but that is dead now.

Astros sign Christian Walker for 3 years, $60 million

Walker will be 34 years old for the 2025 season and he was a late career breakout, but I don’t blame Houston for shelling out $60 mil over 3 years when you see that elite 75 MPH bat speed. This is a truly special power bat, and he has bat speed to spare to give him a gentle decline. We all know Houston is great for righty homers too. Walker remains an excellent win now piece. Houston has decided they don’t want to go full rebuild, which complicates the path for some of their most talented youngsters, but their OF is still wide open, so I think there is still room for their best to find jobs (Melton and Dezenzo, in particular).

Baltimore signed Tomoyuki Sugano for 1 year, $13 million

Sugana is a 35 year old who just put up an 18.3% K% in 156.2 IP in Japan, so we aren’t talking about big dynasty value here, but he can easily end up a solid win now piece. Here is Sugano himself talking about his arsenal and strategy in an MLB.com article by Adam Berry, “Obviously not a guy that throws 100 mph, but I’m very confident in my control, command, my pitch mix. That’s why I’ve had a lot of success in Japan. I’m not looking to really change anything now. I want to use my pitch selection, my pitch mix, my command to pitch in the States and see where it takes me from there.” That says it all as Sugano art of pitching’d his way to a 1.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2024, and a 2.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his 1,873.1 IP career. The guy knows how to pitch, and while he’s not going to be an under 3 guy in MLB, I don’t see why his profile wouldn’t transfer. Baltimore wouldn’t have paid him $13 million if they didn’t think he could be effective. I would expect a #3/4 type starter with a high 3 ERA and low WHIP, but the lack of K’s and age still blunts his dynasty value. He’s probably more of a Top 400-500-ish dynasty asset with more value the deeper the league is.

The Guardians trade Josh Naylor to Arizona for Slade Cecconi and then signed Carlos Santana for 1 year, $12 million

Arizona was the 4th worst park for lefty homers while Cleveland was the 5th best. Naylor hits the ball hard enough where I wouldn’t panic, but that is a definite downgrade, and he was already coming off a career power season that was sure to regress. I thought he was getting a tad underrated even after his career year, because absolutely nobody is buying in, but now I’m hesitant to buy in as well. Cleveland turned right around and signed Carlos Santana, so any bump for Manzardo and Noel is mitigated, but a 39 year old Santana will be much easier to surpass than Naylor. It’s clear that Manzardo and Noel are the future (and probably the present too at DH/1B). As for Arizona, it now gets a bit more crowded for all of their fringe starters (Pavin Smith, Alek Thomas, JJ McCarthy, Blaze Alexander), but these guys were going to have to prove it on the field anyway to hold a job, and I still think the cream will rise here (Pavin Smith is the cream).

The Astros trade Kyle Tucker to Chicago for Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski

It was a no brainer for Chicago to flip Paredes to a team better suited to his particular set of skills, and Houston couldn’t be more perfect for him. He should get back to mid 20’s homers. This is a big boost for his fantasy value. Cam Smith had the raw power to profile anywhere, but this is still a big park upgrade for him too. And Hayden Wesneski gets a new team, new coaches, new voices etc … to try to unlock his still decent potential. He was actually pretty good last year with a whiff machine, double plus sweeper and 2 low to mid 90’s fastballs. Houston wouldn’t have traded for him if they didn’t see something they liked. Not big value here, but it’s something. And finally, the biggest piece in the deal, Kyle Tucker, is the least interesting. And you know what, that kinda tracks with his whole career of being underhyped. His value doesn’t change. So boring.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

2025 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 98 Second Baseman (Patreon)

Welcome to Second Baseman Rankings Week on the Patreon! The position closest to my heart, as that was the position I mostly played growing up. And please stop just displacing and undervaluing natural 2B with bad defenders from other positions thinking it’s easy! Get off my position! You stunk at SS and now you also stink at 2B! And while we’re at it, I can also play a better SS than you if the damn coach gave me chance! And one more thi … okay, I let that get away from me for a second there 😉 But back on track, let’s show these slick fielding middle infielders the love they deserve this week. Top 5 free on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, projections and prime projections for every player. Here is the 2025 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings: Top 98 Second Baseman:

1) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 32.6 – Betts is the leader of the Slow Bat Speed Kings with a 69 MPH swing that is 442nd “best” in baseball (minimum 50 swings). But he proves swinging an electric bat isn’t the only path to success. He had another great season which was only interrupted by a fractured hand in mid June, slashing .289/.372/.491 with 19 homers, 16 steals, and a 11.0/11.8 K%/BB% in 116 games. The 11% K% tied a career best, and his 16 steals tied for a 6 year best. The 26.7 ft/sec sprint was a career low and in the bottom 30% of the league, so while there certainly seems to be some physical decline, it hasn’t impacted his stats quite yet. Like I’ve been saying with elite players like this, 33 years old is when I start to think about selling, so I’m running it back in 2025 with Mookie. 2025 Projection: 110/32/100/.290/.370/.525/18

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, 2B, 21.4 – There always has to be one. Chourio was a beast. Langford was really good and beasted at the end of the season. Merrill exceeded all expectations all year. Caminero showed flashes and laid a solid foundation. And then there was Holliday, who had a nightmare rookie year. He slashed .189/.255/.311 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 33.2/7.2 K%/BB% in 60 games. The .262 xwOBA backs up the terrible surface stats. To continue with the bad, just to get it all out of my system, his bat speed also wasn’t very impressive with a 71.2 MPH swing that was very slightly below average. There are very real things to be concerned about, like the hit tool being bottom of the scale bad, because he doesn’t necessarily have the biggest game power/base stealing to truly make up for that. It’s possible for prospects to bust, or have decent but unspectacular careers, even elite ones who feel can’t miss. Now having said that, I’m not even close to giving up on Holliday. Even with the extreme struggles, he put up a very good 8.2% Barrel% and 89.3/94.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Hitting the ball that hard as a 20 year old is impressive. He’s also lightning fast with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint, and he had an above average 27.2% Chase%, so it’s not like he was completely lost up there. His hit tool has been very strong at every stop of the minors, so a 33.9% whiff% as a 20 year old in his first taste of the majors really isn’t that huge of a deal. It’s almost certain to improve as he gains experience. Do I think his terrible season has his stock dropping a bit? Yes. But he’s still a Top 50 dynasty asset for me, and I’m expecting a much better year 2. – 2025 Projection: 77/16/68/.247/.318/.411/18 Prime Projection: 98/25/83/.278/.360/.485/25

3) Ketel Marte – ARI, 2B, 31.6 – Marte has always hit the ball hard, but he went absolutely bonkos in 2024 with a 94 MPH EV which was a career high by a mile (91.1 MPH in 2023). It was the 6th best EV in baseball amongst qualified hitters. And it resulted in him smashing 36 homers in 136 games to go along with his usual excellent plate plate approach (18.2/11.1 K%/BB%) and high BA (.292). His righty swing is just an insane 77.2 MPH, and it resulted in a 1.080 OPS vs. lefties. His 71.5 MPH lefty swing is just fine too and it resulted in a .841 OPS. I have to say, the jump in EV is suspiciously high, but what do I know. It sure feels like a career year, but if the throwback steroid era 30 year old power breakout is for real, maybe he can hold this level for the next couple years. I find it hard to bet on that, but even if he falls back to career norms, he’s still a damn good hitter. – 2025 Projection: 97/29/90/.280/.357/.506/8

4) Ozzie AlbiesATL, 2B, 28.3 – I’m a little torn on Albies. On the one hand, Albies is still in the prime of his career, and has a long track of excellent production, which makes predicting a bounce back season in 2025 seem very easy. But on the other hand, his 27.2 ft/sec sprint speed was a career low and was below average, he swings a well below average bat with a 69.1 MPH swing, and he chases a lot with a 33.6% Chase%. He also doesn’t hit the ball hard enough (32% Hard Hit% in 2024 and 35.5% in his career) to make up for a lot of those deficiencies. He thrives based on the contact (14.9% K%), lift (18.4 degree launch), and pull (48.8% Pull%) profile, but I’m starting to question if this is a profile I want to bet on long term. The profile isn’t that much different than Jose Altuve, who has aged just fine, so maybe I’m overthinking it, but I’m starting to think that Albies might have more name value than real dynasty value at the moment. I’m not too concerned over the next couple of seasons, but in the medium and long term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as just a good fantasy player, rather than a true difference maker. – 2025 Projection: 83/25/87/.266/.321/.461/16

5) Matt McLainCIN, 2B/SS, 25.8 – Don’t forget about little Matty Mclain. He underwent shoulder surgery in late March and then suffered a late season rib injury which knocked out his entire regular season. But he returned in time for the AFL to prove his shoulder was healthy, and he hit well there with 4 homers and a .876 OPS in 13 games. It gives confidence that with a full normal off-season, he will be ready to build on his awesome 2023 MLB debut where he slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so his glove will keep him on the field. Assuming full health, McLain is the real deal, but factoring in some rust and/or risk from the surgery wouldn’t be crazy. Just don’t factor in too much, because McLain can be a really exciting fantasy player. – 2025 Projection: 82/25/79/.269/.343/.468/22

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B– Top 98 2B
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 438 DYNASTY RANKS
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Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

A Top 135 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Sneak Peek Season is upon us as I continue to build out my Top 1,000 2025 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall with analysis, 2025 projections, and prime projections for every player. The Patreon is cooking with these Sneak Peeks, Deep Dynasty Positional Rankings, Team Reports, and so much more coming. But first, here is A Top 135 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 135 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersWashington Nationals (free)

1) Shohei Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 30.9 – If you own Shohei Ohtani, there is a very, very high likelihood that your team is in win now mode, and if your team is in win now mode, I can’t imagine there is single solitary scenario where you would feel good about trading him straight up for any player in the game, age be damned. He just went .310/54/59 as a hitter only, finishing as the #1 fantasy player in the game by a country mile (shouldn’t the expression be a city mile? Try driving a mile in New York City, it will take you about 30 minutes. In the country? 50 seconds). And now in 2025 he is expected to be fully healthy to get back on the mound after undergoing an internal brace procedure, or whatever super secret elbow surgery he underwent. His arm was healthy enough to even hear murmurs he could have pitched this post-season. And when healthy, he is a true ace with a 3.01 ERA and 31.2/8.9 K%/BB% in 481.2 career IP. It’s his 2nd major elbow surgery in 5 years, but I’m not betting against a super human talent like Ohtani, and he always has elite hitting to fall back on even if he can’t return to full health. Considering what he did this year while recovering from surgery, it’s pretty clear you barely need elbows to hit. Sure he’s 30 years old, but that is far from ancient. One complicating factor did pop up during the World Series with him hurting his left shoulder, ultimately requiring surgery in early November. It’s not his pitching shoulder, but you do need shoulders to hit, and there are already rumors he isn’t going to run as much in 2025. He was so far out ahead of the pack in a daily moves league that I don’t think this changes his #1 status, but it definitely makes it less of a no brainer. His injuries are starting to pile up – 2025 Projection: 105/40/101/.283/.371/.562/25 // 9/3.41/1.19/142 in 120 IP

2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.10 – In leagues where Ohtani can’t be used as both a pitcher and hitter (weekly leagues or leagues where Ohtani is split into two players), age does start to become more of a factor, so in those leagues, Bobby Witt Jr. would be crowned the #1 dynasty player in the game. Coming off his rookie season in 2022, he improved in almost every facet of the game in 2023, and then he once again improved in every facet of the game in 2024. Someone tell Bobby that development isn’t linear, because his development is a straight line. He put up career bests in Barrel% (14.3%), EV (92.7 MPH), Max EV (116.9 MPH), xwOBA (.413), K% (15%), and BB% (8.0%). His 74.7 MPH bat speed is elite, which makes his contact rates even more impressive, because that bat speed/contact combo is in even more rarified air. He’s also the fastest man in baseball by a good margin with a 30.5 ft/sec sprint. It all resulted in a .332/32/31 season, and seeing how he’s only gotten better every single season, there might just be another level in here. 40/40 here we come. – 2025 Projection: 118/35/104/.315/.379/.555/39

3) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS, 23.3 – Risk? What risk? I laugh in the face risk, ranking Elly 9th overall last off-season, and finishing his blurb by writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” That not so risky risk paid off in a huge way in 2024 with Elly going .259/25/67. Those 67 steals led the league by a large margin, lapping most of the field. He’s one of, if not the most electric player in the game at 6’5” with an elite 75.2 MPH swing (his lefty swing is super elite, while his righty swing is more near elite) and 30.0/sec sprint speed. He crushes the ball with a 91.8 MPH EV, he brought his launch up as expected to a respectable 9.7 degrees, he brought his chase down to an above average 26.9%, and he kept his strikeout rate in a reasonable enough range (31.3%) to let the insane talent shine. And this is just the beginning. If he can continue to improve his plate skills and raise that launch, which I wouldn’t see why that isn’t the expectation at just 23 years old, I shutter to think about what kind of numbers are possible. – 2025 Projection: 110/31/89/.267/.348/.515/59

4) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS, 23.9 – Henderson massively improved on basically the only three weaknesses of his game in 2024, which easily propelled him into a Top 5 dynasty asset. He put up a .829 OPS vs. lefties in 2024 after a notching a lowly .618 OPS in 2023. I never let Gunnar’s struggles vs. lefties hold his ranking back, even when it was a major point of contention in is his prospect years, and I think it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating lefty hitting prospects. You often don’t get that many reps against lefties, so you often see that skill develop over time when they get into the majors. Don’t let it scare you off. He also improved his base stealing, nabbing 21 bags in 25 attempts after stealing only 10 bags in 2023. Granted this one was more a fantasy skill than a real life skill, as he was an excellent base runner overall in both years. And finally, he improved his hit tool, putting up a 22.1% K%, 24.4% whiff%, and a .281 BA. He combined all of those improvements while continuing to smash the ball with a 92.8 MPH EV, leading to 37 homers. He still doesn’t steal quite enough to pop him over Witt or Elly, but he is right there with those guys, and if steals are devalued in your league, like in points or 6+ hitting category leagues, Gunnar would slid in ahead of Elly. – 2025 Projection: 116/35/99/.280/.370/.535/18

5) Juan Soto – NYM, OF, 26.5 – Soto didn’t give the Yanks even the slightest bit of deference, going to the highest bidder in the New York Mets, signing for 15 years and $765 million (the Yanks reportedly offered 16 years for $760 million). He’s just a subway ride away from his new digs … or more accurately, just a chauffeured ride away … or probably even more accurately, just a helicopter ride away. For a super elite hitter like Soto, ballpark doesn’t really matter, but the most interesting part of this move is how much he changed his hitting profile for Yankee Stadium’s short porch.  He put up a career high by far 45.1% Pull% (38.9% in 2023), and it led to a career high 41 homers. The Yanks were the 3rd best park for lefty homers last year, while the Mets were 10th worst. Will Soto continue to pull the ball that much? Or will he decide to go back to his career norms? My guess is that he keeps on pulling it, because he actually hit one more homer on the road than he did at home. It seems Yankee Stadium gave him the push to unlock more homer power regardless of ballpark, and I don’t see why he would want to go back. His 19.7% Barrel%, 94.2 MPH EV, and 57% Hard Hit% were all career highs. His Statcast expected homer totals were 46 for Yankee Stadium and the exact same 46 for Citi Field, again underscoring that he is ballpark proof. The only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases with only 7 steals, and that is what keeps him just a smidge behind Witt, Elly and Gunnar. 2025 Projection: 118/35/105/.289/.418/.539/9

Shadow5) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly lineup leagues or as a hitter only. Without the pitching to put him over the top, the age does come into play here a bit. And it’s hard not to have that shoulder surgery in the back of your mind too. – 2025 Projection: 2025 Projection: 105/40/101/.283/.371/.562/25

6) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 24.7 – Back when Carroll was in the throes of his awful start, I made a decree by Fantasy Law to not sell low in one of my Dynasty Baseball Rundowns, writing, “‘The captain goes down with the ship.’ That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll.” He continued to struggle for a bit after writing that, but before long, he did indeed turn that ship around, slashing .258/.351/.577 with 20 homers, 20 steals, and a 10.6/11.3 K%/BB% in his final 71 games. He smashed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV and 14.6 degree launch over that time. I would say any lingering concern over his shoulder injury can be put to rest, cementing Carroll as a truly elite dynasty asset with standout contact, approach, power, and speed. He’s the total package. Don’t be scared off by the poor first half. – 2025 Projection: 119/28/84/.270/.357/.519/42

7) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 28.2 – A fractured shin knocked Tucker out for half the season, but he put up a 1.041 OPS in 18 games after returning, so there is zero concern about the injury long term. I guess the one area of his game where maybe you can get a little nervous about is stolen bases. He only stole one bag in those 18 games, and he put up a career low 26.0 ft/sec sprint, which is in the bottom 18% of the league. He’s never been fast but he’s always been an excellent base stealer, so I’m not sure I’m extra worried about it, but he does kinda feel like the type of player who may not steal as much as he gets into his 30’s. He’s not there yet at only 28, but it might be something to keep in mind. Steals aside, he does feel like the type of player who will rake deep into his 30’s. He only played in 78 games, but it was the best year of his career with a 180 wRC+ that came on the back of a career high by far 16.5% BB% (11.9% in 2023). He also hit 23 homers with 11 steals, and if you double that over a full season pace, that is 46 homers with 22 steals if my math is correct … carry the 1. He’s been one of the most consistently great players of his generation. Almost too consistent as he semes to get taken for granted. – 2025 Projection: 102/34/109/.285/.378/.533/24

8) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 32.11 – In pure win now mode, I can see ranking Judge 2nd overall, but with him turning 33 years old just one month into the 2025 season, age starts to move a little more to the forefront of my mind. 33 years old is generally the number for me when I maybe start to explore sell opportunities if I want to rebuild or retool, so while I’m not saying to sell Judge, it’s the reason why he isn’t ranked even higher coming off his massive season. His 218 wRC+ was the best in baseball by a massive margin. The only players to put up a higher wRC+ in a season are Barry Bonds (3x), Babe Ruth (3x), Ted Williams (2x), and Roger Hornsby (1x). I mean, do I need to say more? No. No I don’t. – 2025 Projection: 112/50/128/.293/.422/.661/10

9) Fernando Tatis Jr.SDP, OF, 26.3 – Tatis proved without a shadow of a doubt that he is not going to fade into mediocrity after his relatively down 2023 season coming off the PED suspension and multiple surgeries (not that I had much doubt, ranking him 6th overall last off-season). He demolished the ball with a 93.5 MPH EV, 14.5% Barrel%, .393 xwOBA, and a 55.1% Hard Hit% which was in the top 1% of baseball. Not only were his power metrics in prime form, but his 21.9% K% was a career best. He missed over two months with a stress reaction in his leg, which I guess you can add to his “injury risk” pile, but he was fine when he returned in September, and he went nuclear in the playoffs too with 4 homers in 7 games. It all resulted in 25 homers with a .280 BA in 109 games (including the playoffs). That is about a 35 homer pace over a full season. The one area where the injuries did seem to take their toll was on the bases. He only stole 11 bases on 14 attempts and his sprint speed tanked to 28.4 ft/sec (29.3 in 2023). Maybe you can blame the leg injury, but he wasn’t running much before that injury, and I’m not sure how you can blame the wrist/shoulder injuries for him getting slower, especially since he was fine in 2023. How much he’s going to run in the future is the wild card in this profile, and that question, along with some continued injury risk, is enough to nudge him just outside of the of that Top 5-ish area into the Top 10 area. – 2025 Projection: 96/33/89/.283/.348/.529/18

10) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 27.3 – Acuna tore his right ACL in 2021 and now he’s torn his left ACL in 2024. Since that first torn ACL, he’s been in the process of slowing down with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint in 2021, a 28.5 ft/sec sprint in 2022, a 28.0 ft/sec sprint in 2023 and finally a 27.7 ft/sec sprint in 2024. And now coming off this 2nd ACL tear, I don’t think there is any question at all that Acuna is not going to be the athlete he was in his prime. Even with the lowest sprint speed of his career, he still stole 16 bases in 49 games, which is about a 48 steal pace, so I don’t think he is all of a sudden going to stop running, but let’s see how he looks coming off this 2nd major knee injury. He was also in the midst of the worst season of his career before going down with the injury. He hit only 4 homers with a .716 OPS. He was definitely getting unlucky as he was crushing the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV, but even his .348 xwOBA was a career low by far. He wasn’t able to maintain any of the contact gains from 2023 with his K% jumping back up to 23.9% (11.4% in 2023). After the first ACL tear, Acuna’s first year back wasn’t particularly great with 15 homers and a 115 wRC+ in 119 games in 2022, so keep that in mind for 2025. He had a historic season in 2023 of course, so the hope is that he can do the same eventually after this one, but this one will be his 2nd, and it’s hard for me to completely ignore it. He’s also expected to miss about a third of the season in 2025. Acuna is the type of talent you want to keep betting on no matter what the circumstances are, but I’m definitely a little concerned. – 2025 Projection: 71/23/63/.272/.363/.524/20

11) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 24.3 – The Slow Start King is going to give his dynasty owners a massive coronary event if he gets off to yet another slow start in 2025. He seriously needs to figure something out this off-season. Treat Spring Training like it’s the regular season? Ramp up earlier? I don’t know the answer because I don’t know what his off-season routine is, but he needs to do something differently. He put up a .616 OPS in his first 87 games before exploding after that, slashing .318/.371/.543 with 13 homers, 7 steals, and a 23.3/6.5 K%/BB% in his final 56 games. He’s far too talented to be too scared off by the slow starts. His 76.3 MPH swing is the 9th fastest in baseball. He crushes the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV and he has elite speed with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint. The one area of his game which is preventing him from joining the true elites, especially as a real life hitter, are his plate skills. It’s yet to improve at all in his 3 years in the majors with a 30.9% whiff% and 37.4% Chase% (25.4/6.2 K%/BB%). He can thrive in fantasy especially even without that improving at all, but if that can take a step forward, we may not have seen the best of Julio yet. – 2025 Projection: 100/31/100/.281/.342/.490/32

12) James WoodWAS, OF, 22.7 – I don’t need to do any deep victory lap philosophizing when it comes to if James Wood is a hit for me (see the Washington Nationals Dynasty Team Report for more thoughts on victory lapping in dynasty), because I can say without a shadow of a doubt that I can victory lap the hell out of James Wood. I named him a major First Year Player Draft Target in his draft year, and then I ranked him all the way up at 68th overall in the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I couldn’t help but buy into that beastly power/speed combo from a 6’7” frame, and the swing was always short enough to bet on the hit tool ending up good enough. And that is exactly how it played out in his rookie year with an elite 92.8/96.9 MPH AVG/FB EV, a plus 28.7 ft/sec sprint, a well above average 21% Chase%, and a not in the true danger zone 29.6% whiff%. It resulted in 9 homers, 14 steals, a .264 BA and a 120 wRC+ in 79 games. The 2.4 degree launch subdued the homer power a bit, but he hits the ball so hard that he’s launch proof, and that number is certainly coming up in the future. He’s basically Elly De La Cruz with better plate skills and half as many steals. Do not even think about valuing Wood as anything but a near elite dynasty asset this off-season. – 2025 Projection: 89/24/87/.251/.346/.474/26 Prime Projection: 105/32/105/.268/.364/.518/28

13) Jackson ChourioMIL, OF, 21.1 – I spent most of my waking hours last off-season agonizing over who to place as the #1 prospect in baseball between Chourio, Holliday and Langford. And honestly, it wasn’t only waking hours, I was dreaming of a Chourio 20/20 rookie season in my sleep. I trusted the voices I was getting from the baseball gods, placing Chourio first overall on my prospect rankings, and projecting his 2024 stat line for 21 homers, 22 steals, 75 RBI, a .320 OBP and a .469 SLG in my 2024 Top 1,000 Rankings. And as we know, he ended up outdoing Langford by a solid amount and Holliday by a city mile, hitting 21 homers with 25 steals, 79 RBI, a .327 OBP and a .464 SLG. Damn, it’s almost like I really did see his future stat line in my dreams (and yes, I’m not mentioning batting average or runs because I didn’t nail those ha). He hit the ball very hard with a 89.7 MPH EV, he had elite speed with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint, and he had a slightly above average 21.1% K%. And all of those numbers include his rough first 2 months of the season. If you just look at his last 4 months, which is reasonable considering he was a 20 year old rookie just finding his MLB sea legs, his numbers get even more impressive, slashing .305/.360/.527 with 16 homers, 15 steals, and a 18.4/7.3 K%/BB% in his final 97 games. There is some room for improvement with his plate approach (below average 31.9% Chase%) and launch (7.6 degrees), but neither of those are too bad to begin with, and he has the profile to make that work even if he can’t improve it. But he’ll barely be 21 years old next season, so I don’t see why we wouldn’t expect all areas of his game to improve. Wood vs. Chourio is a coin flip for me, but I gave the edge to Wood because he hits the ball harder and chases less. – 2025 Projection: 93/26/89/.285/.339/.488/28

14) Wyatt Langford – TEX, OF, 23.5 – Langford’s surface stats don’t jump off the page with a .253 BA, .740 OPS, 16 homers, and 19 steals in 134 games, but his underlying skills were jumping off the page all season, and it finally showed in September. He went bonkos to close out the season, slashing .289/.372/.579 with 9 homers, 7 steals, and a 19.0/10.2 K%/BB% in his final 32 games. Even if you pull it back to June 3rd, he had a .804 OPS with 15 homers and 18 steals in his final 98 games. And like I mentioned, the underlying skills are super impressive. He hits the ball very hard with a 9.3% Barrel% and 89.6 MPH EV (91.3 MPH EV in those final 32 games). He lifts it with a 16.6 degree launch, he has elite speed with a 29.8 ft/sec sprint, he has above average contact rates (22.9% whiff% and 20.6% K%), and he has an above average plate approach (23% Chase% with a 9.2% BB%). The cherry on top is that his 74.5 MPH swing is nearly elite, and it’s a short swing too with 7 foot length. That swing speed/length combo is special. Only Heliot Ramos swings a faster bat with a shorter swing. He’s going to explode in 2025. – 2025 Projection: 89/26/93/.274/.352/.481/24

15) Jackson MerrillSDP, OF, 21.11 – Merrill’s ability to raise his launch angle considerably, while not losing even a smidge of contact prowess, is nothing short of incredible. He went from putting up a 59.9% GB% with a 19.2% K% at Single-A in 2022 to putting up a 35.9% GB% with a 17% K% in the majors in 2024. Justin Crawford better be blowing up his celly round the clock to get some pointers on how he did it. It resulted in Merrill having one of, if the not the best rookie season in baseball, slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals, and a 17.0/4.9 K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back it all up with a 11.3% Barrel%, 90.4 MPH EV, and a .376 xwOBA. The only area of his game to quibble with is that he’s never walked a ton, and he chased a lot with a 34.4% Chase%. He’s also never been a huge base stealer in his career, but I don’t think him stealing 20+ bags is out of the question at all. He’s an easy elite dynasty asset, and he’s in a tier with James Wood, Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, and Wyatt Langford as the top rookies in the game. – 2025 Projection: 86/25/92/.288/.336/.492/19

16) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 27.9 – Yordan had to go ahead and put his surgically repaired knees back in our mind right at the end of 2024, tweaking his knee after sliding into 2nd base on September 22nd, which ended his regular season. He returned for the playoffs, so it’s not a big deal, but any knee injury is going to have our minds racing, thinking about if they are going to become a concern as he starts to age. The good news is that he’s only 27 years old, so I wouldn’t worry about it quite yet. He’s as consistent as they come with beastly season after beastly season. He slashed .308/.392/.567 with 35 homers, a career high 6 steals, and a 15.0/10.9 K%/BB% in 147 games. There are zero concerns about him over the short term, but I do think the knees are something to at least keep in the back of your mind down the line. – 2025 Projection: 91/35/100/.303/.405/.579/3

17) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.6 – We can finally put the “Vlad has only had a great year in a minor league ballpark” narrative to rest. His 165 wRC+ this year was almost identical to the 166 mark he put up in 2021. Granted he hit 48 homers in the minor league park and only 30 this year, but still. His underlying numbers were screaming that he was legitimately elite despite the relatively mediocre surface stats in 2023, so his big year really isn’t that surprising. I don’t have a fancy bat speed + contact rate stat to give you, but if I did, Vlad, Yordan, and Soto would be the cream of the crop. Vlad swung a 75.9 MPH bat with a 13.8/10.3 K%/BB%. And he crushes the ball with a 93.8 MPH EV. The 7.4 degree launch is still subduing the homer power a bit, and he doesn’t run much with only 2 steals, so I wouldn’t quite call him a truly elite dynasty asset, but he’s not far off. – 2025 Projection: 99/32/109/.308/.383/.528/4

18) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 32.6 – Ramirez had the quietest 39/41 season of all time. Barely heard about it. The pomp and circumstance around Ohtani was too loud for anyone else to get their fair due. Or maybe it’s because he doesn’t play in a large market that Ramriez’ entire spectacular career doesn’t really get the respect he deserves. He’s only 5’9”. He doesn’t smash the ball like the true giants of the game. He doesn’t have elite speed. He doesn’t swing the fastest bat. He’s an everyman who quietly goes about his business with elite season after elite season. He does it with elite contact skills (12% K%), elite lift (19.6 degree launch) and elite pull ability (52.8% Pull%). He also hits the ball plenty hard with an 89.2 MPH EV. The only question is how long can he do it for at 32 years old. He obviously showed zero signs of slowing down in 2024, and like I mentioned in the Aaron Judge blurb, 33 years old is really the first year I start to seriously consider selling elite players like this. I’m not going to dock him for his age too much. He’s an elite win now piece. – 2025 Projection: 102/33/106/.280/.344/.520/33

19) Paul SkenesPIT, RHP, 22.10 – While this is far from the most impressive part of Skenes game, I’ve just been having a lot of fun diving into the new bat tracking data, and of course Skenes ranks towards the top of those leaderboards as well. The disparity amongst pitcher’s induced swing speed is obviously much less than the disparity between hitters, but I still find it interesting. Skenes had the 8th best swing speed against amongst qualified pitchers at 70.9 MPH. The only qualified starter to induce slower swings was Chris Sale, and Will Vest led of all baseball amongst qualified pitchers. That’s just the cherry on top of his elite profile. He throws a 6 pitch mix, and all of them range from above average to elite. His 94 MPH sinker was the most valuable sinker in baseball with a +18 run value. His 98.8 MPH 4-seamer notched a +6 run value, the curveball notched a +2, the sweeper was at +5, the changeup at +2, and while the slider was his only negative value pitch at -2, that was only because he got unlucky on the pitch with a .229 xwOBA. He combined that filth with plus command which led to a 1.96 ERA and 33.1/6.2 K%/BB% in 133 IP. He’s the easiest #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ranking I’ve ever made since  … 2024. Spencer Strider was a damn easy call last off-season, and he’s a perfect example of the only thing that can go wrong, injuries. Pitchers break, and pitchers who throw upper 90’s seem to break even more. You can’t play scared, and you need good pitchers to win, but it’s why I can’t rank any pitcher higher than around Top 20-ish overall on the Dynasty Rankings. They are just inherently too risky. – 2025 Projection: 15/2.77/0.98/227 in 185 IP

20) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 32.5 – You can find some things here and there which maybe can look like small red flags in hindsight if Harper does start to decline, like a nearly career worst in xwOBA (.361), Barrel% (10.6%), and sprint speed (27.4 ft/sec), but I think that is simply slicing and dicing the numbers too much when it comes to a proven stud like Harper. And none of those marks were too bad or too far off from career norms. His 145 wRC+ was a 3 year high and slightly better than his 142 career wRC+. He crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has a strong plate approach with a 21.9/12.0 K%/BB%. It doesn’t seem like we can count on more than a handful of steals anymore (7 steals), but he strikes me as the type who could rake well into his late 30’s. I wouldn’t be thinking about selling Harper off quite yet. – 2025 Projection: 98/33/99/.287/.382/.520/10

21) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 32.6 – Betts is the leader of the Slow Bat Speed Kings with a 69 MPH swing that is 442nd “best” in baseball (minimum 50 swings). But he proves swinging an electric bat isn’t the only path to success. He had another great season which was only interrupted by a fractured hand in mid June, slashing .289/.372/.491 with 19 homers, 16 steals, and a 11.0/11.8 K%/BB% in 116 games. He has 4 dingers in 11 post season games and counting. The 11% K% tied a career best, and his 16 steals tied for a 6 year best. The 26.7 ft/sec sprint was a career low and in the bottom 30% of the league, so while there certainly seems to be some physical decline, it hasn’t impacted his stats quite yet. Like I’ve been saying with elite players like this, 33 years old is when I start to think about selling, so I’m running it back in 2025 with Mookie. 2025 Projection: 110/32/100/.290/.370/.525/18

22) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 31.4 – Lindor gutted it out with a back injury to close out the season and into playoffs, requiring extra injections to get back on the field, and while I respect the hell out of his heart (130 wRC+ in 13 playoff games), I do hope it’s something that doesn’t come back to bite him early in 2025. Sometimes things like that can throw off your normal off-season routine, creating an uphill battle all season. While it’s something to think about, it would be much too cautious to plan on Lindor being anything other than a stud next year. After going 31/31 in 2023, he followed that up in 2024 with a 33/29 season. His 137 wRC+, 13.6% Barrel% and .382 xwOBA were all career highs. As long as the back isn’t an issue, I don’t see why he wouldn’t go 30/30 again. If the back is an issue, there is a chance he doesn’t run quite as much. 2025 Projection: 103/31/94/.268/.340/.485/26

23) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 28.7 – Duran’s hit tool and plate approach have improved every year of his 4 year career, and considering how electric of a player he is, that is all he need to go nuclear. He slashed .285/.342/.492 with 21 homers, 34 steals and a 21.8/7.3 K%/BB% in 160 games. He has elite speed with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint, he hits the ball very hard with a 90.8 MPH EV, and he has plus bat speed with a 73.6 MPH swing. There is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers to say this year was a fluke, and with how he’s improved every year of his career (48 wRC+ in 2021, 77 wRC+ in 2022, 120 wRC+ in 2023, 129 wRC+ in 2024), who is to say he can’t do it again in 2025. I’m all in. 2025 Projection: 101/23/83/.280/.341/.476/33

24) Oneil CruzPIT, OF/SS, 26.6 – Saying that Cruz’ 95.5 MPH EV is elite would be an understatement. It is in all time great territory, trailing only Judge and Ohtani, two all time greats. His 78.6 MPH swing speed is also super elite, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton’s 81.2 MPH swing (Stanton laps the field, with nobody even close to him). And he also has double plus speed with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. This is an extremely special talent. Yes, there is hit tool risk with a 34.1% whiff% and 30.1% K%, but I really don’t think it’s as risky at it seems. He hit .259 this year with a .266 xBA, and in 1,009 career PA he has a .250 BA. He can clearly thrive with the elevated swing and miss. He put together a strong year in 2024 with 21 homers and 22 steals in 23 attempts in 146 games, but he is merely just scratching the surface of what he’s capable of. He was a major target coming into the year, and he turned into an elite dynasty asset. Make sure you treat him like one this off-season. – 2025 Projection: 84/27/92/.255/.328/.474/26

25) CJ AbramsWAS, SS, 24.6 – Washington sent Abrams to his room at the end of the season like an unruly teenager to think about what he’s done after partying at a casino until 8 AM when he had a 1 PM game. Maybe he was exhibiting this type of behavior all season and it was a long time coming. But maybe this is also what a normal 23/24 year old does, and at that point of the season, the Nationals were so far out of it. I say give the kid a break, but either way, I’m not letting it impact his considerable dynasty value. His power has been slowly but surely ticking up with a 90.9 MPH FB/LD EV in 2022, followed by a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 2023, and finally putting up a very respectable 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 2024. It resulted in his first 20 homer season in 138 games, and at a still wiry 6’2” with a 15.1 degree launch, this is just the beginning of his power ascension as he enters his mid 20’s. He wasn’t as good on the bases this year as he was in 2023 (31 for 43), but he finished the season 17 for 19 on steal attempts in his final 52 games, so I think that was just a small sample aberration. And really his biggest demerit is that the plate skills haven’t shown any improvement since he broke into the majors with a 21.3/6.6 K%/BB% and 35.4% Chase%. He can be an easy top 50 dynasty asset even if the plate approach never improves, putting up several 20/30 seasons, but if he wants to take the next step into elite status, he needs to improve in that area. And entering his age 24 year old season, I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect improvement there. Abrams is just getting started. – 2025 Projection: 89/23/76/.263/.329/.450/35

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Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersWashington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

New York Yankees 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It just worked out that the release of the Yankees Dynasty Team Report coincided with the gut punch of the Mets signing Juan Soto. Or if you’re a Mets fan, the elation of the Mets stealing Soto away from the Yankees. Steven Cohen gives more George Steinbrenner vibes than the Steinbrenner kids ever did. Hard not to love it. I give more thoughts on the Soto signing in the Dynasty Strategy/Thoughts section below, but first, we dive into the most interesting MLB players on the Yankees and their Top 13 Prospects. Here is the New York Yankees 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (more coming this week)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesCincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersWashington Nationals (free)

Hitters

Anthony VolpeNYY, SS, 23.11 – Volpe has a well below average 69.5 MPH swing, and I gotta say, it has me shook. Maybe slowing his swing down was all part of the process to improve his hit tool last off-season, and to his credit, his hit tool did improve, going from a .209 BA and 27.8% K% to a .243 BA and 22.6% K%. But that still isn’t a good hit tool, so the tradeoff was not even close to worth it. If he’s going to swing that slow, he needs to make near elite contact, or he needs to be a lift and pull machine, which he was before making this ill fated adjustment. He had a 14.2 degree launch and 45.6% Pull% in 2023, resulting in 21 homers, which he then flipped to a 8.4 degree launch and 32.1% Pull%, resulting in 12 homers. Honestly, whoever was the catalyst for this change of approach needs to answer to this terrible strategy. The one real positive to his 2024 was that he stole 28 bags despite a .293 OBP, so it’s clear he’s going to rack up steals. He obviously can’t be happy with his offensive season, so I’m sure he’s going to go back in the lab this off-season. I wish we had swing speed data from 2023, so we can see if this is just his true talent level, or if he slowed his swing down in 2024 on purpose, but with well below average swing speed like that, and without elite plate skills, his upside is going to be capped. I don’t want to overrate swing speed, and I don’t want to assume he’s locked in here after a one year sample where he changed his swing. I think Volpe will be able to combine the two approaches and become a very good power/speed threat, but I can’t lie, the swing speed scares me a bit, and prevents me from sticking my neck too far out for him. 2025 Projection: 88/18/66/.249/.317/.415/31

Jazz Chisholm – NYY, OF/3B, 27.2 – I ranked Jazz 34th overall on the 2024 Top 1,000, absolutely refusing to fade a player with such a beastly power/speed combo, and named him a major target, writing, “Buy the injury discount. His proven upside is way way way too high to let your fear control you. He was on a 30/30 pace this year. The hit tool isn’t great, but he has 1,193 PA with a .245 BA. That is a large enough sample where I’m not too worried about the bottom falling out. If you want to shy away from mediocre talents due to injury concern, that is fine with me. Even shying away from good talents is reasonable. But you don’t shy away from near elite talents like Chisholm.” And what he just did in 2024 is why you don’t fade this kind of talent. He slashed .256/.324/.436 with 24 homers, 40 steals, and a 24.5/8.5 K%/BB% in 147 games. He was playing well with the Marlins, but he exploded when he got the Yanks with 11 homers, 18 steals and a 132 wRC+ in 46 games. It’s not even that he hit particularly well at Yankee Stadium, it just seemed to light a fire under him, but for sure it’s also a big home field upgrade for him. And the most important thing of all is that he stayed healthy. Health is the main reason why people faded him, and unfortunately, it still has to be taken into account in his price. Staying healthy one season is good, but he needs to go back to back healthy seasons for me to take “injury risk” off his resume, or at least have it downplayed. We saw Robert stay basically healthy in 2023, only to again miss a large chunk of the season in 2024. Jazz could easily follow that same path. If not for injury risk, Jazz has an argument for Top 15 status, so ranking him 27th overall on A Top 75 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon) does factor in a bit of risk. – 2025 Projection: 87/25/84/.252/.323/.455/33

Pitchers

Clarke Schmidt NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Schmidt is one of my favorite pitcher targets for 2025, and while my favorite pitching targets generally have a low floor (and high upside obviously), Schmidt is one with both a high floor and high upside. A pitcher like that generally gets drafted higher than 217th overall (where he currently sits in NFBC ADP), which is why they don’t land in true target range for me, but Schmidt’s breakout/leveling up has slid just far enough under the radar to land in a perfect target range. He put up a 2.85 ERA with a 26.3/8.5 K%/BB% in 85.1 IP, and while he certainly got lucky with a 3.78 xERA, I think that xERA is underselling him too. Let’s start with the fact he had a 29.4% whiff% overall, which should immediately get your attention. The cutter he added in 2023 has leveled up into a plus pitch with a 32.2% whiff%, which he combines with an above average to plus sweeper (.269 xwOBA with a 29.7% whiff%), and plus to double plus curve (.217 xwOBA with a 33% whiff%). The 94.3 MPH sinker also missed the most bats of it’s career with a 20.3% whiff%. He had about average control last year and he’s had average to above average control in his career, so there are zero issues there. He doesn’t get hit particularly hard either with an above average 5.9% Barrel%. That is just a really, really strong overall skillset, and at the least it should result in a good fantasy starter. At the most, there is legit #2 starter potential in here. Like all pitchers, injuries are a concern, and he did miss over 3 months mid-season with a lat strain. He wasn’t quite as good when he returned in September, so that is probably a major reason his price is a bit depressed, but I’ll just use that as a buying opportunity. 2025 Projection: 13/3.58/1.19/169 in 160 IP

Luis GilNYY, RHP, 26.10 – Gil is a tough rank for me. I was never truly in on him as a prospect because of his extreme walk troubles, and even after his excellent rookie season (3.50 ERA with a 26.8% K% in 151.2 IP), there are still a few things holding me back from truly putting him in the young ace, or near ace tier. Most obviously, the control is still really bad with a terrible 12.1% BB%, and he was a very hot or cold pitcher because of it. I would be willing to overlook that (or at least be more forgiving of it), if he had a true dominant secondary, but he doesn’t really have that with a slider that put up a good but not great .280 xwOBA and 31.5% whiff%, and a changeup that put up a solid .307 xwOBA and 26.9% whiff%. The money maker is of course the 96.6 MPH fastball that is a plus pitch with a .318 xwOBA and 28.5% whiff%. He put up a 29% whiff% overall, which is in the double plus range. I definitely feel the pull to bet on the huge stuff and whiff rates, but the well below average control, and the lack of a true whiff machine secondary makes it all feel very shaky to me. He currently has a 182 NFBC ADP, which feels about right to me, so he seems to be valued with how I see him as well. He’s a Top 150-ish dynasty asset. 2025 Projection: 12/3.69/1.22/181 in 160 IP

Bullpen

Luke Weaver – NYY, Closer, 31.7 – With the Yankees now scrambling to replace Soto’s offensive production, it seems likely that the focus isn’t going to be on the bullpen (of course you never know though), so that leaves Weaver as the heavy favorite to remain the Yanks closer in 2025. And he certainly deserves that job after a breakout 2024, putting up a 2.89 ERA with a 31.1/7.9 K%/BB% in 84 IP. The 95.7 MPH fastball was double plus with a +8 run value and 30% whiff%. The changeup was elite with a .216 xwOBA and 48% whiff%. And he throws a solid cutter too. The Yanks saw qualities they thought they could work with when they acquired him in 2023, and boy oh boy did it work with his stuff taking a huge step forward. The move from a starter to the bullpen also probably naturally played a role. Those very real adjustments give hope that this is mostly sustainable, and not a one year blip. We know how volatile relief pitching can be, but I’m apt to buy the breakout. 2025 Projection 4/3.36/1.11/79/33 saves in 67 IP

New York Yankees 2025 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 22.2 – The Yankees didn’t want to unleash Dominguez in the majors this year, and his .617 OPS in the 67 PA he did receive isn’t super impressive, but make no mistake, Dominguez is still on the superstar path. His 75.4 MPH swing is straight elite, which proves right there that his talent really wasn’t that overhyped as an international prospect. His 23.4% whiff% was comfortably above average, which is pretty huge to see, and his 28.1% Chase% was slightly above average. Tack on plus speed, and Dominguez’ beastly potential was even able to shine through despite the Yanks refusing to unleash him. And oh yea, he destroyed the upper minors immediately after returning from Tommy John surgery in mid May with a 135 wRC+, 11 homers, 16 steals (in 17 attempts) and a 20.0/8.8 K%/BB% in 58 games. Is he really 22 years old and not like 26 years old? Beats me. But I don’t care when it comes to a talent this huge (I gave my thoughts on MLB cracking down on players’ lying about their ages in the Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Team Report). I see no reason why the Yanks won’t unleash him immediately in 2025, and he could be on a beeline for elite dynasty asset status in short order. Go after him. He ranked 45th overall on the Top 75 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon (more Sneak Peeks are coming this week). – 2025 Projection: 83/21/76/.246/.323/.434/26 Prime Projection: 109/28/91/.266/.351/.487/34

2) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.11 – Extremely high strikeout rate hitters often straddle that imaginary line between “he’ll hit enough for the huge talent to blow up” and “he can’t hit, making the huge talent worthless.” It often results in a very black or white ranking, because if you think they will hit enough, they get ranked extremely high, and if you don’t think they will hit enough, you might erase them completely from your rankings. I like to live in the Grey (not Grey as in Razzball Grey, that would just be odd, but Grey as in the Queen’s English of gray), so while I’m obviously less than enthused with Jones’ 36.8% K% in 122 games at Double-A, I don’t want to just banish him to purgatory. His talent is just too huge to do that at 6’6”, 235 pounds with an at least plus power/speed combo. And even with all of the strikeouts, he still showed out in the upper minors with 17 homers, 25 steals, and a 124 wRC+. He doesn’t have to bring the K rate down to like the mid 20’s, he can survive in the low 30’s. Jones isn’t Elly, but we saw the season Elly just put up with a 31.3% K%. The extremely high K rate rate definitely hurts his value (at least he’s no Elijah Green and his 44% K%), but I don’t think it means you should write him off. The upside is too high, and I don’t think the hit tool is hopeless. He’s still a Top 75 Prospect for me. 2025 Projection: 11/3/14/.217/.290/.399/4 Prime Projection: 75/21/79/.238/.317/.436/21

3) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 20.7 – Arias was one of the top bets to go full elite prospect status in 2024, and it’s good reminder that even though it can feel like a rookie ball prospect is inevitable, they aren’t actually inevitable. There is a lot of inherent risk if you haven’t even hit full season ball yet. Arias struggled to adjust for the first 3+ months of the season with a .652 OPS and 34.9% K%, but he finally found his groove in the final 2 months, giving hope that the big prospect breakout can still happen in 2025. In his final 47 games he slashed .276/.390/.471 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.4/14.6 K%/BB%. The strikeout rate has been high throughout his career, so there is definitely hit tool risk here, but he hits the ball hard, he has speed and he gets on base. I don’t think it’s fair to expect a truly elite prospect breakout anymore. You are really aiming for those rocket ships with little to no bumps in the road, and that isn’t quite Arias. But just because his stock took a hit, doesn’t mean he’s not a really talented prospect. Just more of a Top 100-150 one. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/20/77/.247/.326/.442/23

4) George Lombard NYY, SS, 19.10 – Lombard’s hit tool was not as good as hoped in his first full year of pro ball with a 24% K% and .232 BA in 81 games at Single-A, and then a 19.8% K% and .226 BA in 29 games at High-A. A large chunk of his value was coming from that hit tool, because he doesn’t have big present power with only 5 homers in 110 games. The launch and approach are geared more for line drives than homers, so it’s not just about gaining more power naturally, which he will. He has good tools at 6’3”, 190 pounds and there is definitely room to tack on more mass. He’s also fast and a good baserunner with 39 steals. He has a mature approach (12.3% BB% with a .338 OBP), he’s a good defensive SS, and he’s young for his class at a still 19 years old as of 2025 Opening Day. There is potential for him to be an above average across the board player at peak, but he’s going to have to show real hit tool gains pretty soon, or a major power increase if he doesn’t want the profile to start looking a bit lackluster. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 79/17/69/.259/.324/.419/23

5) Everson Pereira – NYY, OF, 24.0 – Pereira’s season ended on May 19th after undergoing elbow surgery. He was doing his usual big power, big strikeout thing before going down with the injury with 10 homers and a 32.4/8.6 K%/BB% in 40 games at Triple-A. That K rate at Triple-A is scary, and it was even worse when he got a shot in the majors in 2023 with a 38.8% K% and 43.1% whiff%. But strikeouts aside, Pereira is an exciting talent with the ability to crush the ball and above average speed. He’s basically obliterated every stop of the minors. These guys generally get a shot at some point in time, often with the Miami Marlins of the world, and the fantasy upside is worth staying patient with. With Juan Soto now officially a goner, maybe Pereira’s status in the Yankees organization gets a little bump, and even if he isn’t handed a starting job (which he won’t be), he might hang around in that next man up territory. He’s a bit more interesting to me now than he was before Soto signing with the Mets. 2025 Projection: 28/10/35/.222/.291/.424/5 Prime Projection: 71/24/78/.235/.312/.454/12

6) Chase Hampton – NYY, RHP, 23.8 – Hampton didn’t make his season debut until July 1st due to an elbow injury. When he returned, his stuff was diminished and the results were poor with a 21.1/11.8 K%/BB% in 18.2 IP. He then went right back on the IL with a lower body injury that ended his season. Pitching prospects are fun ;). At full health, he’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat, a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change), and solid control/command. He looked like he had the potential to be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter, and if he returns to full health in 2025, he still has that potential. But the risk couldn’t be more evident. 2025 Projection: 2/4.38/1.37/21 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.30/157 in 155 IP

7) Ben Hess – NYY, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 26th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Hess is a high floor real life arm at 6’5”, 255 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and 3 legit secondaries in his slider, curve and changeup. He didn’t pitch particularly well this year with a 5.80 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 68.1 IP in the SEC, but the 34.8%/11.5% K%/BB% looks much better. I call him a “high floor real life arm” because as a college starter with his size, velocity and pitch mix, there is a very high probability he will be a major league arm in some capacity. But for fantasy, there is risk he ends up in the bullpen, or a back end starter if his control can’t improve. I’m apt to bet on the size and stuff here, and his price should be very reasonable in First Year Players Drafts. Hess ranked 28th overall on the End of Season Top 56 2025 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Full off-season Top 100+ coming soon on the Patreon). – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.32/165 in 160 IP

8) Edgleen Perez – NYY, C, 18.10 – Perez isn’t my typical big game power upside catcher that I like to go after, especially if you’re in rookie ball, but his supporting skills are good enough to get excited. His plate skills are elite for his age with a 16.2/20.8 K%/BB%, and it resulted in a 138 wRC+ in 51 games at stateside rookie ball. It only came with 2 homers due to a 51.7% GB%, but he hits the ball hard, so there is more game power in the tank if he can raise his launch. And he has a chance to be a good defensive catcher, so his glove could get his bat in the lineup. He ranked 62nd overall in my Top 78 2025 Dynasty Baseball Catcher Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/15/68/.276/.343/.430/3

9) Rafael Flores – NYY, C/1B, 24.5 – Flores’ power took a big step forward in 2024, and it resulted in him destroying Double-A, slashing .274/.359/.519 with 15 homers, 6 steals, and a 26.7/10.3 K%/BB% in 65 games. He also so easily passes the eye test at 6’3”, 220 pounds with a smooth righty swing that looks like an MLB swing. I mean, his offensive power upside is no joke. He’s already 24 years old, the hit tool has risk as you can see from that strikeout rate, and he’s not a particularly good defensive player, but it’s so easy to fall in love watching his swing. I like him, but a bench bat is probably his most reasonable outcome. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 54/18/65/.241/.317/.437/3

10) Henry Lalane – NYY, LHP, 20.10 – Lalane was a fun breakout pick before the season, but he was limited to just 12.1 IP due to shoulder fatigue. It was a completely lost season. This is just the life of a pitching prospect, and it’s why rookie ball pitchers are some of my least favorite prospects to go after. There is just so much that can go wrong. But when you play the rookie ball pitcher game, you know what you are getting into, so the hope is that he can come back completely healthy in 2025 and immediately get the hype rolling again. Here was my blurb for him in the 2024 Top 1,000, and nothing has really changed assuming full health: “Rookie ball pitchers aren’t my favorite to go after, but if you are going to go after one, a 6’7”, 211 pound lefty with good stuff and good numbers isn’t a bad choice. Lalane put up a 36.6%/4.5% K%/BB% in 21.2 IP in stateside rookie ball with 3 potentially plus pitches (fastball, breaking ball, changeup). He only reached 4 IP in one outing, and the fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, so there is a long way to go, but if you squint hard enough, you can see a CC Sabathia starter pack here. Here’s to hoping he can pack on 130 pounds of pure Captain Crunch to fulfill his destiny.” ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.28/165 in 160 IP

11) Caleb Durbin – NYY, 2B/3B, 25.1 – I see the huge offensive season Durbin just had at Triple-A, slashing .287/.396/.471 with 10 homers, 29 steals, and a 9.9/12.5 K%/BB% in 82 games (he was even better in the AFL with a .976 OPS in 24 games), but I’m struggling to get past the extremely low 83 MPH EV. He’s only 5’6”, he’s already 25 years old (as of 2025 Opening Day), and while he has a solid infield glove, he’s not some slick fielding SS whose glove will get him on the field. It seems like a utility infielder profile to me, especially if he remains on the Yankees. On the other hand, his contact/speed combo gives him a very clear path to fantasy usefulness if he does work his way into the lineup, or if he gets traded to a team with more opportunity. He can also lift and pull it, which we know can overcome a low EV, but an 83 MPH EV isn’t just low, it’s among the worst in baseball low. I know Durbin has his big supporters, and while I’m not one of them, I understand what they see with contact, speed, lift, pull, and proximity. I don’t mind him as a proximity play, but he’s not really one of my guys. 2025 Projection: 29/4/18/.250/.313/.360/9 Prime Projection: 76/10/58/.271/.325/.383/26

12) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 25.2 – Warren put up a 10.32 ERA in his 22.2 IP MLB debut, which is hard to find silver linings with, but let’s try to find a few. The 4.52 xERA and 26.4/9.1 K%/BB% look much better, and his pitches were missing bats. His 93.8 MPH 4-seamer actually performed excellently with a 24.6% whiff% and .255 xwOBA. His famed sweeper wasn’t great, but it still put up a 37.1% whiff%, which tells me better day are ahead, and the underlying numbers on the changeup were really good with a .221 xwOBA and 32% whiff%. Both the changeup and sweeper got massively unlucky, which was the main culprit for the ridiculous ERA. He also throws a sinker and cutter, giving him a diverse pitch mix. He wasn’t good at Triple-A either with a 5.91 ERA in 109.2 IP, but again, the 28.0/8.0 K%/BB% looked much better. He’s probably a back end starter, but I don’t think his 2024 was as bad as it seemed on the surface. Looking at the underlying metrics of the individual pitches actually paints a kinda encouraging picture. He’s only a deeper league play right now, but I would hold him in those leagues. 2025 Projection: 3/4.31/1.35/51 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.18/1.32/153 in 150 IP

13) Bryce Cunningham – NYY, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Cunningham is a built up 6’5”, 230 pounds with the big mid 90’s fastball to match. He combines the heat with a slider and changeup that can both miss bats, giving him 3 legit pitches with bat missing ability. There is a reason the Yanks selected him relatively high despite pretty lackluster college production. He has a career 4.95 ERA in 160 IP in the SEC, and while 2024 was his best season, it wasn’t exactly dominant with a 4.36 ERA and 26.6/9.4 K%/BB% in 84.2 IP. The stuff gives him a high real life floor as a potentially impact reliever, and there is rotation upside too if he can improve his control/command and continue to refine his pitch arsenal. He’s not the worst option if you are looking for a college arm in the mid to late rounds of your First Year Player Draft, but he’s not exactly a target for me either. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/4.22/1.33/146 in 150 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

The real life implications of Soto signing a 15 year, $765 million contract are obviously the most fun thing to discuss right now, but because I’m a dynasty baseball nut, I’m actually a bit more interested in the fantasy fallout. The first little piece of fantasy fallout is that Soto actually changed his approach for the Yankee Stadium short porch. He put up a career high by far 45.1% Pull%, and it led to a career high 41 homers. The Yanks were the 3rd best park for lefty homers last year, while the Mets were 10th worst. Will Soto continue to pull the ball that much? Or will he decide to go back to his career norms which sat more in the high 30 percent area? He’s certainly ballpark proof with a 99.5 MPH FB/LD EV, but it’s easy to forget that there was actually a small time where people were worried about his fantasy upside with a 29 homer and 27 homer season in 2021-22. Yankee Stadium was perfect for him. Citi Field isn’t. My guess is that he continues to pull the ball more, and because of the extreme EV, I’m not worried about the ballpark downgrade, but I think it’s worth mentioning.

The next most interesting fantasy fallout is how this signing impacts the playing time projections for exciting youngsters hoping for a shot to break into the bigs. I already wasn’t too worried about Dominguez’ playing time, and now that seems even more locked in. Ben Rice on the other hand, who I was hoping could make it through the off-season with a shot to win the Yanks 1B job, I am now much less confident in. It sure feels like Pete Alonso is now an obvious pivot for the Yankees. But if not him, Christian Walker, or even Paul Goldschmidt could be an option. Without Soto, I just don’t see the Yanks leaving 1B open anymore. Other than Dominguez, Everson Pereira and Spencer Jones sure seem to take on much more importance for the Yanks long term outfield plans. Even if they sign an outfielder, it will be an older vet. As for the Mets, Brett Baty gets a lot more attractive with Mark Vientos likely to slide over to 1B. He’s struggled in his first 3 tastes of the majors, but I still think he can fulfill his better in real life than fantasy destiny if given a long enough leash, and he just may get that leash in 2025.

This is all obviously still speculation with many more moves to come for both franchises, but opportunity and leash is one of the most important things for young players trying to break in, and this seems to shift which young players are in a better position to get their shot now, and which might be left holding the bag. Stay tuned.

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Top 83 First Baseman: 2025 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

It’s First Base Rankings Week on the Patreon! First Baseman get no respect on real life prospects lists for lack of defensive value, but they have the big bats to make a big fantasy impact if they do hit close to their offensive ceilings, and for fantasy, all prospects need to hit pretty close to their offensive ceiling anyway to make a real impact. And quite frankly, playing 1B is harder than they make it out to be. Put some respect on these men’s gloves. Top 5 free here on the Brick Wall with full analysis, 2025 Projections and Prime Projections for every player. Here is the Top 83 First Baseman: 2025 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

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1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.6 – We can finally put the “Vlad has only had a great year in a minor league ballpark” narrative to rest. His 165 wRC+ this year was almost identical to the 166 mark he put up in 2021. Granted he hit 48 homers in the minor league park and only 30 this year, but still. His underlying numbers were screaming that he was legitimately elite despite the relatively mediocre surface stats in 2023, so his big year really isn’t that surprising. I don’t have a fancy bat speed + contact rate stat to give you, but if I did, Vlad, Yordan, and Soto would be the cream of the crop. Vlad swung a 75.9 MPH bat with a 13.8/10.3 K%/BB%. And he crushes the ball with a 93.8 MPH EV. The 7.4 degree launch is still subduing the homer power a bit, and he doesn’t run much with only 2 steals, so I wouldn’t quite call him a truly elite dynasty asset, but he’s not far off. – 2025 Projection: 99/32/109/.308/.383/.528/4

2) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 32.5 – You can find some things here and there which maybe can look like small red flags in hindsight if Harper does start to decline, like a nearly career worst in xwOBA (.361), Barrel% (10.6%), and sprint speed (27.4 ft/sec), but I think that is simply slicing and dicing the numbers too much when it comes to a proven stud like Harper. And none of those marks were too bad or too far off from career norms. His 145 wRC+ was a 3 year high and slightly better than his 142 career wRC+. He crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has a strong plate approach with a 21.9/12.0 K%/BB%. It doesn’t seem like we can count on more than a handful of steals anymore (7 steals), but he strikes me as the type who could rake well into his late 30’s. I wouldn’t be thinking about selling Harper off quite yet. – 2025 Projection: 98/33/99/.287/.382/.520/10

3) Matt Olson – ATL, 1B, 31.0 – What goes up, must come down. After putting up a career year in 2023 with 54 homers, Olson nearly bottomed out with the 2nd worst year of his career in 2024 with a 117 wRC+. While I didn’t see him falling that far, I saw the fall coming, writing in his 2024 Top 1,000 blurb, “2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball.” And now I can follow up that blurb with “2024 strikes me as a down year, and Olson is still one of the premier power hitters in baseball.” He dominated to close out the season with 16 homers and .949 OPS in his final 63 games. He still hit the ball very hard with a 12.4% Barrel% that was right in line with career norms. It was just a down year. He remains one of the best power hitters in the game. – 2025 Projection: 93/36/115/.253/.348/.517/1

4) Pete AlonsoFRA, 1B, 30.4 – Alonso’s BA unsurprisingly bounced back from a .205 BABIP induced .217 BA in 2023, rising to .240 with a .276 BABIP in 2024, which is right around his career norms. The ebbs and flows of a baseball career are always interesting, with luck being such a big part of the game. Make sure to keep that in mind when evaluating Alonso’s career low 34 homers this year too. His 14.4 degree launch was 3.8 degrees lower than last year, so there might have been a conscious attempt to balance out his profile, but 34 homers is a really nice floor to have. And that is basically a reasonable floor with a 95.3 MPH FB/LD EV and a 75.3 MPH swing that is the 16th fastest swing in baseball amongst qualified hitters. Seeing how fast he swings the bat gives added confidence that his skills are not going to tank in his 30’s. This is a special talent who should be ripping dingers deep into his mid 30’s. – 2025 Projection: 92/37/115/.248/.339/.507/3

5) Freddie Freeman – LAD, 1B, 35.7 – The decline has to come one day, right? And as we saw with Paul Goldschmidt, when it comes for a player around this age, their dynasty value falls off a cliff very quickly. If I owned Freeman, even in win now mode, I would be mighty tempted to cash my chips in this off-season, even if the offer isn’t like a godfather type offer. He had another excellent year in 2024 with a 137 wRC+, 22 homers, 9 steals, and a 15.7/12.2 K%/BB% in 147 games. His .370 xwOBA was a career low, but it was still in the top 6% of baseball, which just shows how great of a career he’s having. He should have a gentle decline, but even a gentle decline will tank his trade value. It’s better to sell a year early than a year late. I think this is the year to pull the trigger. – 2025 Projection: 92/25/102/.290/.384/.501/10

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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