Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on October 14, 2024October 14, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Milwaukee Brewers 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2025 off-season festivities officially kicked off on the Brick Wall last week with the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports. Like during the regular season, I will be posting a few articles a month for free on Imaginary Brick Wall with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, AFL/Winter League Updates, the Top 100+ FYPD rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Milwaukee Brewers 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk) , Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Miami Marlins—Minnesota Twins—Oakland Athletics—Washington Nationals (free)

Hitters

Garrett Mitchell – MIL, OF, 26.7 – The new Statcast Bat Tracking data has been such a fun and valuable tool to dive into (I do a deep dive into the bat speed leaderboards below in the Strategy/Thoughts section, and name players to target and also players who we probably shouldn’t expect a power breakout from), and one of the top names to jump out on that list is Garrett Mitchell. He swings an electric bat with a 75.7 MPH swing that is 27th fastest in baseball, and that is with players that have swung the bat even a single time. Bump the threshold up to 100 swings and he ranks 22nd. He combines the elite bat speed with an elite 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed which is in the top 5% of baseball. He’s simply one of the most electric players in the game, and it unsurprisingly resulted in a very good season. He slashed .255/.342/.469 with 8 homers, 11 steals, and a 31.7/11.2 K%/BB% in 69 games. It was good for a 126 wRC+. Like many players who swing that fast, he misses a lot too with a 34.3% whiff%, but that has been headed in the right direction in his career, and he has a career 19.8% K% in 40 games at Triple-A, so I do think there is potential for that to continue to improve. He’s also hitting .264 in 365 career MLB PA, so I don’t think the hit tool is as risky as it seems. He hits the ball on the ground too much with a career 4.9 degree launch, but with his speed and hard hit ability, he can easily make that profile work (as he has been). I named him a major target at mid-season before he got called up to the majors, and I’ll be naming him a target again this off-season. 2025 Projection: 81/18/72/.248/.330/.447/26

Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 21.1 – I spent most of my waking hours last off-season agonizing over who to place as the #1 prospect in baseball between Chourio, Holliday and Langford. And honestly, it wasn’t only waking hours, I was dreaming of a Chourio 20/20 rookie season in my sleep. I trusted the voices I was getting from the baseball gods, placing Chourio first overall on my prospect rankings, and projecting his 2024 stat line for 21 homers, 22 steals, 75 RBI, a .320 OBP and a .469 SLG in my 2024 Top 1,000 Rankings. And as we know, he ended up outdoing Langford by a solid amount and Holliday by a county mile, hitting 21 homers with 25 steals, 79 RBI, a .327 OBP and a .464 SLG. Damn, it’s almost like I really did see his future stat line in my dreams (and yes, I’m not mentioning batting average or runs because I didn’t nail those ha). He hit the ball very hard with a 89.7 MPH EV, he had elite speed with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint, and he had a slightly above average 21.1% K%. And all of those numbers include his rough first 2 months of the season. If you just look at his last 4 months, which is reasonable considering he was a 20 year old rookie just finding his MLB sea legs, his numbers get even more impressive, slashing .305/.360/.527 with 16 homers, 15 steals, and a 18.4/7.3 K%/BB% in his final 97 games. There is some room for improvement with his plate approach (below average 31.9% Chase%) and launch (7.6 degrees), but neither of those are too bad to begin with, and he has the profile to make that work even if he can’t improve it. But he’ll barely be 21 years old next season, so I don’t see why we wouldn’t expect all areas of his game to improve. He’s already an elite dynasty asset, ranking him 14th overall on the End of Season Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2025 Projection: 93/26/89/.285/.339/.488/28

Pitchers

Tobias Myers – MIL, RHP, 26.8 – Myers doesn’t do anything flashy, and there is no one area of his game that really stands out, but when you add up the sum of his parts, you realize he’s a really interesting young starter to say the least. The fastball only sits 92.9 MPH, but it gets really good movement and it was a pretty good pitch with a +6 run value that ranked 58th in all of baseball. He only went to the changeup 11.4% of the time, but it was elite when he went to it (mostly vs. lefties) with a 44.4% whiff% and .194 xwOBA, and the slider induced weak contact with a .194 xwOBA. He also threw a cutter and mixed in a changeup. Tack on above average to plus control, and you have a really good pitcher which resulted in a 3.00 ERA with a 22.3/6.3 K%/BB% in 138 IP. The xERA sat 4.11, so he definitely got on the lucky side, and his stuff isn’t exactly unhittable with a 89.7 MPH EV against, so we might not be talking about huge upside, but I really like Myers a lot, especially if he doesn’t get any respect this off-season. He’s a “let him come to you” target for me this off-season, meaning don’t reach, but definitely put a star next to his name as you get deeper into the draft. 2025 Projection: 10/3.76/1.23/158 in 165 IP

Freddy Peralta – MIL, RHP, 28.10 – Peralta is just about as close as you can get to a true fantasy ace without actually quite being one. His ERA’s have been a bit too high over the last 3 years to put him in that category, but he did put up true ace numbers in 2021 (albeit in 144.1 IP), and I definitely think he has the capability to put up some truly special seasons again. He’s a bat missing machine with 4 above average to plus pitches that all rack up whiffs. It led to a 31% whiff%. He has a 31.7% whiff% in his career. That is straight elite for a starter. The control is a bit below average, but nothing too bad, and he doesn’t get hit very hard with a 87.6 MPH EV against. He also stayed healthy this year and put up a career high 173.2 IP. It resulted in a 3.68 ERA with a 27.6/9.4 K%/BB%. He’s the type of pitcher who I love to build my staff around. I don’t like fully paying up for the hyped to death aces, but I also don’t want to have to build an entire staff solely from the bargain bin. So Peralta always seems to fall into that goldilocks zone of ace level upside without having to quite pay ace level prices. No matter the league, I always seem to end up with Peralta on a bunch of teams. 2025 Projection: 12/3.49/1.15/200 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Aaron Ashby – MIL, LHP, 26.10 – I could have talked about Devin Williams in this section, but I can sum him up for you right now in 2.5 words, he’s elite (are contractions considered one word or two words? Are they one and a half words?). Trevor Megill is definitely interesting because of his weak 2nd half, but nobody is more interesting to me in Milwaukee’s bullpen than Aaron Ashby. Ashby underwent shoulder surgery in April 2023 and didn’t truly get back to full health until late May/early June of this year. Even with his stuff back, he still struggled mightily with his control as a starter in the minors, but once they transitioned him to the bullpen, all hell broke loose. He immediately dominated in the role at Triple-A, and then he rolled it right into the majors with a 1.37 ERA and 36.8/3.9 K%/BB% in 19.2 IP. The sinker sat 96.2 MPH and put up a .291 xwOBA with a 2 degree launch. His changeup (37% whiff%), curveball (42.9% whiff%) and slider (43.8% whiff%) all racked up whiffs. If they keep him in the pen, it’s quite clear he can be a truly elite reliever, but if they decide to put him back in the rotation, he would certainly be one of the leading candidates to go all Garrett Crochet on us. Even as a starter, the velocity was averaging between 94-95 MPH by the end of May. Due to the injuries and control problems as a starter, they may never make that move, but he has the pitch mix for it, and it’s not like Milwaukee has a stacked rotation, so they may have to give it a go out of necessity at some point. Either way, Ashby is looking like a great target this off-season. 2025 Projection: 5/3.72/1.27/111 in 95 IP

Milwaukee Brewers 2025 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Jesus Made – MIL, SS, 17.11 – I love to see deep international prospects who cracked my Top 1,000 Rankings have big breakouts, and I thought my blurb for him last off-season was pretty interesting considering how things played out: “Stop me if you heard this one before, but the switch hitting Made is a projectable and toolsy 6’1”, 165 pounds with a swing geared towards launching the ball. He has a mature plate approach and he has the potential to be a very good defensive SS. I know these international prospect blurbs can get repetitive especially as we get deep into the class, but these are the prospects that can blow up if you want upside. Embrace the mystery. Prime Projection: 76/24/81/.258/.334/.449/12.” And blow up Made did as one of the top breakouts in the DSL, slashing .331/.458/.554 with 6 homers, 28 steals, and a 13.0%/18.1% K%/BB% in 51 games. He’s projectable, he’s toolsy, he hits the ball hard, the plate approach is very strong, and he’s a good SS. That is the total package, and while there is still a lot of risk as DSL performance is the least trustworthy, there is also truly elite prospect upside. I know there are many leagues, usually shallower ones, where gunning for the top pure upside is the best strategy to take, but even in medium to deeper leagues, Made is worth the risk. And use Made as a reminder to not be afraid to dive into the mystery that is the international class as you get deeper into first year player drafts this off-season. That is why the last third of my Top 132 FYPD Rankings are always jam packed with these guys. Low upside, boring college guys just aren’t likely to be difference makers. Go for the lotto ticket. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 94/24/86/.276/.352/.472/26

2) Jacob Misiorowski – MIL, RHP, 23.0 – The hope was that Misiorowski’s control/command would take a step forward this season, but it just didn’t happen. He put up a 14.4% BB% in 97.1 IP at mostly Double-A. They moved him into the bullpen when he got the call to Triple-A, and the control didn’t improve in short outings either with a 14.3% BB%. He finished the season with a 3.33 ERA and 30.5/14.4 K%/BB%. His evaluation basically remains exactly the same from last off-season. He’s 6’7”, 190 pounds with premium stuff and super high upside. The upper 90’s fastball is a double plus bat missing weapon and his breaking balls are plus and miss bats. You hate to say it, but it is really a reliever profile right now. It’s far too early into his development process to write him off as a starter though, and I highly doubt Milwaukee is ready to do that either. Even if he breaks into the majors in the bullpen, he will definitely be a candidate to get transitioned back into the rotation at some point too. I’ll keep betting on the huge stuff and let the chips fall where they may. 2025 Projection: 3/3.91/1.34/67 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.58/1.27/183 in 150 IP

3) Brock Wilken – MIL, 3B, 22.10 – Wilken is a 6’4”, 225 pound masher who has the 3B job wide open for him right now with Willy Adames hitting free agency, likely moving Joey Ortiz to SS (or Turang to SS and Ortiz to 2B). There is also an opening at DH. There definitely seems to be a path to playing time, and there is little doubt that he will hit dingers and get on base when he gets that chance with 17 homers and a 13.4% BB% in 108 games at Double-A. The hit tool was worse than we hoped for with a .199 BA and 28.2% K%, but some of that was definitely bad BABIP luck. He was also hit in the face with a pitch on April 11th, sustaining multiple facial fractures, so I think we can cut him some extra slack for that, although he performed better the first 3 months after returning than he did in August and September, so maybe that is just an excuse. Either way, I’m betting on the monster power, pedigree (18th pick in the 2023 MLB Draft) and opportunity. 2025 Projection: 27/11/36/.219/.296/.427/1 Prime Projection: 75/28/86/.238/.320/.476/2

4) Eric Bitonti – MIL, 3B, 19.5 – In my End of Season Mailbag Podcast (Patreon), I ran down a list of several of my favorite underrated and/or reasonably priced prospect targets to go after, and Bitonti easily cracked that list. He has future elite power hitting prospect written all over him at 6’4”, 218 pounds with a powerful, athletic and sweet lefty swing that is made to hit bombs. He smoked 8 homers with a 157 wRC+ in 51 games at the age appropriate stateside rookie ball, and then he got called up to Single-A and went nuclear with 8 homers in just 28 games. With his raw power and an over 50% FB%, he can’t not hit homers. He also gets on base a ton with a 16.5% BB%, which offsets some of the swing and miss issues (27.9% K%). And he’s a good athlete with 12 steals in 15 attempts over 79 games, so he should contribute at least a handful in that category. He already cracked my Top 100 Prospects Rankings at #90 overall in my End of Season Top 322 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and this is just the beginning. Definitely go after him everywhere. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/33/97/.242/.331/.497/8

5) Jeferson Quero – MIL, C, 22.6 – Quero underwent season ending shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder just 1 PA into 2024. Shoulders are important for hitting, and they are also very important defensively for a catcher. It definitely adds in some risk that needs to be taken into account. He’s also very clearly blocked by William Contreras who isn’t a free agent until 2028, and I don’t think Milwaukee is going to have any urgency to move either of these guys, so Quero might have to wait until 2028 to take over the starting catcher job. Injuries and playing time aside though, Quero is an excellent catcher prospect with an above average hit/power combo and good defense. He hit 16 homers with a 17.8/10.0 K%/BB% in 90 games at Double-A in 2023. He can easily be a top 10 fantasy catcher at peak, and there is top 5 upside as well. If there was a clear path to playing time, I could see ranking him 2nd on this list, and in deeper leagues where a good catcher can be harder to find, I can also see giving him a bump. 2025 Projection: 11/4/15/.245/.304/.408/1 Prime Projection: 65/20/74/.268/.329/.448/4

6) Cooper Pratt – MIL, SS, 20.8 – The only thing Pratt didn’t do at Single-A was hit for power, hitting only 3 homers with a 25% FB% in 73 games, but when he got the call to High-A, he immediately proved that he wasn’t going to have any problems getting to his potentially plus power with 5 homers and a 38.7% FB% in just 23 games. At a projectable 6’4”, there is no doubt the raw juice is in there, and he also proved to be an excellent athlete (27 steals) with a strong plate approach (20.0/10.3 K%/BB%). The plate approach was much better at Single-A than High-A, and some of that was certainly because he was trying to get to more of his power. So he’s not a finished product, but the ingredients are in here to be an impact across the board fantasy player. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 80/23/80/.262/.328/.453/18

7) Braylon Payne – MIL, OF, 18.8 – When a smart franchise sticks their neck out and selects a high school bat higher than expected, you should take notice. I took notice when it happened with Xavier Isaac and Tampa, and then Ralphy Velazquez with Cleveland. I ranked both very high and named them targets. And now I’m going to do the same with Payne after the the Brewers selected him 17th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft. The book on the 6’2”, 186 pound Payne coming into the draft was that he had big time talent and upside, but was still on the raw side. Which is why it was so exciting to see his electric pro debut where he slashed .438/.526/.625 with 0 homers, 4 steals, and a 15.8/15.8 K%/BB% in 4 games at Single-A. It’s only 4 games, and the swing isn’t geared towards power right now, but there is definitely raw power in there with a 110 MPH shot already to his name, and he has game breaking speed. He’s also young for the class and will be 18 years old for most of 2025. Payne is the type of target you stick your neck out for in off-season prospect drafts. He already ranked 20th overall on my Top 56 2025 First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon), and I might just mess around and place him in my Top 15 when I release the full Top 100+ FYPD Rankings this off-season. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 89/18/63/.267/.334/.436/38

8) Luke Adams – MIL, 3B, 20.11 – Everything I liked about Adams when I named him a deep FYPD sleeper in 2022/23, I still like about him now. He’s 6’4”. 210 pounds with plus raw power, good athleticism, and a plus approach. And he keeps proving the profile will transfer one level at a time. He conquered High-A in 2024 with a 154 wRC+, 11 homers, 28 steals and a 21.3/18.7 K%/BB% in 101 games. While there is a lot to like, you can pretty easily build a case against him too. He still hasn’t fully tapped into that raw power, he’s not a true burner and he gets caught stealing a solid amount (10 CS), and the hit tool has been pretty bad with a .227 BA in 2024 and .233 BA in 2023. It’s not hard to see this profile start to fall apart a bit when he gets to the upper minors, and then ultimately the majors. That is why seeing him prove it at Double-A in 2025 is going to be a big step, and only then can his hype really explode into Top 100 prospect range. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/20/76/.252/.333/.441/14

9) Logan Henderson – MIL, RHP, 23.1 – It’s a little worrisome that Henderson’s production took a big step back when he got to Triple-A, because the stuff isn’t really that huge, but he still wasn’t too bad with a 4.56 ERA and 26.5/6.1 K%/BB% in 23.2 IP. He was lights out at Double-A with a 3.30 ERA and 32.6/3.9 K%/BB% in 46.1 IP. The fastball only sits 92.5 MPH but it gets good movement and is a bat missing weapon. The nasty changeup is his best secondary and a heavily used pitch that both misses bats and induces weak contact. He rounds out the arsenal with a mediocre cutter. Plus control with an excellent secondary and a bat missing, low 90’s fastball can definitely work, but lack of a good breaking ball is a problem. Maybe he’s just a back end starter, but I think there is some mid rotation upside in here, and if he can develop a legitimate breaking ball (he’s still only 22 as of this writing), I don’t think it’s out of the question for him to end up a legit impact fantasy starter. You also have to trust Milwaukee with a guy like this. Henderson is definitely a nice proximity arm to target even in shallower leagues. 2025 Projection: 3/4.31/1.30/63 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.85/1.23/155 in 155 IP

10) Tyler Black – MIL, 1B, 24.8 – Black didn’t play a single game at 2B this year, telling me they have given up on playing him at that position, and he only played 9 games at 3B and 12 games in the OF. He spent the majority of his time at 1B and DH. And the bottom line is that low EV 1B/DH don’t really exist, especially ones who have a good but not great hit tool. He put up an 83 MPH EV with 0 barrels, a .561 OPS and a 29.8% K% in his 57 PA MLB debut. The EV sat at 85.7 MPH at Triple-A. He also doesn’t have the type of extreme lift and pull profile to really pull that off, but it doesn’t go in the extreme the other way either, so he can definitely pop some dingers. If he had a viable position, I wouldn’t mind the speed, OBP, good BA, some pop profile at all, but he doesn’t have a position, and I don’t think the upside is high enough to really wait to find out if he can find one. 2025 Projection: 33/5/24/.245/.306/.383/9 Prime Projection: 77/13/61/.263/.332/.415/24

11) Yophery Rodriguez – MIL, OF, 19.4 – Rodriguez didn’t have the flashiest season with 7 homers, 7 steals, a .726 OPS and a 23.8/12.2 K%/BB% in 110 games at Single-A, but it resulted in a 117 wRC+, and when you take into account he was an 18 year old who skipped over stateside rookie ball, it’s much more impressive. He has a whip quick lefty swing, and he has good size at 6’1”, 185 pounds, so he should be able to get to above average to plus power at peak. He’s also an excellent athlete who signed for $1.5 million in 2023, although he needs to improve his base stealing (19 for 31 in his career and 7 for 12 this year). More refinement is needed in all areas of his game, which is to be expected at this stage in his career, but it’s not hard to see an above average across the board player at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/22/80/.266/.344/.451/10

Just Missed

12) Luis Pena – MIL, SS/3B, 18.5

13) Robert Gasser – MIL, LHP, 25.10

14) Blake Burke – MIL, 1B, 21.10 – Burke was selected 34th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, which is relatively high for a DH/1B bat to get drafted, which means Milwaukee really believes in Burke’s bat. And why not, as Burke is a 6’3”, 240 pound masher who hit 50 homers in 182 career games in the SEC (20 homers in 72 games this season). He’s had hit tool and chase issues throughout his career, but a 14.9/10.8 K%/BB% this year shows he’s capable of improvement. He played in only 5 games at High-A in his pro debut for reasons I am unsure of. He didn’t hit a homer, but a 22.2/11.1 K%/BB% is a good sign that the hit tool won’t blow up in a bad way in pro ball, and we know the power is in there. He’s not a good defensive 1B, so there is a ton of pressure on his bat to become more than a part time power hitter, but for fantasy especially, why not take the shot here. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/23/79/.250/.322/456/2

15) Josh Knoth – MIL, RHP, 19.8

16) KC Hunt – MIL, RHP, 24.9

17) Mike Boeve – MIL, 2B/3B, 22.11

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Garrett Mitchell blurb, I thought it would be fun to dive into some of the new bat speed data Statcast hooked us up with this season. The first and most obvious thing to jump out is that the top of the rankings are littered with the top power hitters and hard hitting players in baseball, often coming with lots of strikeouts. And the bottom of the rankings are littered with the best contact hitters in baseball, often coming with little to no power. But the real question is if a slow bat automatically eliminates you from hitting for power, and the answer to that is no, there are more than a few exceptions to the rule like Mookie Betts, Isaac Paredes, Marcus Semien, Will Smith, Jose Altuve, Jeimer Candelario, Cody Bellinger, Adley Rutschman, and Ozzie Albies. But as you can see, even with those guys, their power can be kinda variable from year to year. And there are not many of them on the bottom third of that leaderboard. And in fantasy especially where power rules the day, it’s clear that there is a definite advantage to going after guys who swing a fast bat.

Some fun names at the top of those rankings to possibly target this season are Oneil Cruz, Jordan Walker, Jhonkensey Noel, Matt Wallner, Junior Caminero, Jo Adell, Jasson Dominguez, Zack Dezenzo, Tyler Soderstom, Trey Sweeney, Heliot Ramos, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, Lawrence Butler, Hunter Goodman and Addison Barger. And here are some less fun names at the bottom of the rankings where it would seem to indicate a real power breakout might not be so easy: Nolan Schanuel, Jacob Wilson, Brooks Lee, Anthony Volpe (hmmm, uh oh, you better get back to lifting and pulling), Keibert Ruiz, Andrew Benintendi (I only include Benintendi because of course Benintendi is on this list, and of course Bo Bichette has below average bat speed too, who I started to comp to Benintendi’s career arc unfortunately), Bryson Stott, Brice Turang, Jake McCarthy and Andres Gimenez. Of course some of this is a choice. Guys who “swing for the fences” are going to swing faster, hit for more power, and strikeout more. Guys who swing slower are going to make more contact, but not hit for as much power. So I don’t think bat speed is necessarily a completely sticky thing if a player decides to change his approach to hit for more power or contact. We’ll have to keep an eye on this in future years as we continue to build on this data to see how often that happens exactly, and how often it’s successful. Really cool to have this data at our fingertips now.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon: Miami Marlins—Minnesota Twins—Oakland Athletics—Washington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 7, 2024October 7, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Washington Nationals 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2025 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, AFL/Winter League Updates, the Top 100+ FYPD rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Washington Nationals 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

Pitchers

DJ Herz – WAS, LHP, 24.3 – What is the victory lapping etiquette for dynasty baseball? In a redraft league, the etiquette is much easier to figure out. Wait until the end of the season and you are safe. But for dynasty, you are wading in much more treacherous waters. Enter DJ Herz, who I named a major target in 2022, only to back off of a bit coming into 2023 and 2024. Now that he broke out this season with a 4.16 ERA (3.29 xERA) and 27.7/9.4 K%/BB% in 88.2 IP, can I claim he’s a “hit”? It feels weird to claim he’s a hit when most people probably dropped him or sold low over those last 2 years. On the other hand, when ranking prospects, you can’t truly know if someone is a hit or miss until several years down the line. Or maybe most importantly, does anyone give a crap? (I ruminate about this more in the Strategy/Thoughts section down below). At this point, the past is behind us, and it’s time to figure out how to value Herz going forward. And my advice is to value him pretty damn high. His 93.5 MPH fastball is a legitimate elite weapon which he throws 54.2% of the time. The pitch notched a 30.5% whiff% which was 4th best amongst starting pitchers. That alone makes him a high K, mid-rotation fantasy starter, and well, to be honest, that is actually all he has. His slider and changeup are decent and mostly get the job done, but they both grade out as slightly below average. And of course the biggest red flag is his below average control. It took a step forward in the majors this year, which sparked this breakout, but it was getting worse towards the end of the season, and it adds in a healthy dose of risk to his profile. I don’t believe Herz will be hyped to death this off-season, making him a relatively reasonably priced target if you to chase upside (control and/or secondaries improving can unlock near top of the fantasy rotation upside), but make sure to factor in the real risk (you can only be so good with a 12% BB% and mediocre secondaries). 2025 Projection: 9/3.73/1.25/181 in 155 IP

MacKenzie Gore – WAS, LHP, 26.1 – Here we go again. Gore is making himself comfortable in the breakout waiting room, and I just hope he doesn’t end up stuck there. The good news is that he definitely took a nice step forward this season with career bests in ERA (3.90), xERA (4.19), Barrel% (6.8%), BB% (8.9%), whiff% (28.6%), and velocity (96 MPH fastball). Those are 6 major categories to take a step forward in. You can see just from those stats that the ingredients are all in here to have a true explosion in 2025, and Gore would be far from the first top of the rotation starter to take a few years before getting to that lofty level (Scherzer, Wheeler, Gausman to name a few). But it also feels like a copout to just name 3 aces who weren’t as good earlier in their career as a reason to expect an explosion from Gore, and after predicting that breakout for Gore the last 2 years to mediocre results, it feels too much like wishful thinking to go too hard after it for a 3rd year. He’s more of a Top 300 dynasty asset for me rather than a Top 200 one. 2025 Projection: 11/3.82/1.34/195 in 173 IP

Hitters

James Wood – WAS, OF, 22.7 – I don’t need to do any deep victory lap philosophizing when it comes to if James Wood is a hit for me, because I can say without a shadow of a doubt that I can victory lap the hell out of James Wood. I named him a major First Year Player Draft Target in his draft year, and then I ranked him all the way up at 68th overall in the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I couldn’t help but buy into that beastly power/speed combo from a 6’7” frame, and the swing was always short enough to bet on the hit tool ending up good enough. And that is exactly how it played out in his rookie year with an elite 92.8/96.9 MPH AVG/FB EV, a plus 28.7 ft/sec sprint, a well above average 21% Chase%, and a not in the true danger zone 29.6% whiff%. It resulted in 9 homers, 14 steals, a .264 BA and a 120 wRC+ in 79 games. The 2.4 degree launch subdued the homer power a bit, but he hits the ball so hard that he’s launch proof, and that number is certainly coming up in the future. He’s basically Elly De La Cruz with better plate skills and half as many steals. There are very few players I’m parting with Wood for. He ranked 13th overall on the Top 438 End of Season 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. 2025 Projection: 89/24/87/.251/.346/.474/26 Prime Projection: 105/32/105/.268/.364/.518/28

CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 24.6 – Washington sent Abrams to his room like an unruly teenager to think about what he’s done after partying at a casino until 8 AM when he had a 1 PM game. Maybe he was exhibiting this type of behavior all season and it was a long time coming. But maybe this is also what a normal 23/24 year old does, and at that point of the season, the Nationals were so far out of it. I say give the kid a break, but either way, I’m not letting it impact his considerable dynasty value. His power has been slowly but surely ticking up with a 90.9 MPH FB/LD EV in 2022, followed by a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 2023, and finally putting up a very respectable 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 2024. It resulted in his first 20 homer season in 138 games, and at a still wiry 6’2” with a 15.1 degree launch, this is just the beginning of his power ascension as he enters his mid 20’s. He wasn’t as good on the bases this year as he was in 2023 (31 for 43), but he finished the season 17 for 19 on steal attempts in his final 52 games, so I think that was just a small sample aberration. And really his biggest demerit is that the plate skills haven’t shown any improvement since he broke into the majors with a 21.3/6.6 K%/BB% and 35.4% Chase%. He can be an easy top 50 dynasty asset even if the plate approach never improves, putting up several 20/30 seasons, but if he wants to take the next step into near elite status, he needs to improve in that area. And entering his age 24 year old season, I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect improvement there. Abrams is just getting started. 2025 Projection: 89/23/76/.263/.329/.450/35

Bullpen

Kyle Finnegan – WAS, Closer, 33.7 – We’ve been waiting nervously for Finnegan to get traded out of the closer role for 2 years, but now that Washington looks on the brink of contention, he just might be off the trade block (famous last words). He’s not very good, but he mostly gets the job done with a 3.68 ERA, 38 saves, and a 22.1/8.9 K%/BB% in 63.2 IP. He has the big velocity with a 97.2 MPH fastball that he throws 67.6% of the time, but he doesn’t have a great secondary and the control is average at best. Even if he doesn’t get traded, Washington is liable to bring in someone else to close, he’s in the final year of team control, and he’s 33 years old. He’s a very low end closer option. 2025 Projection: 4/3.66/1.32/63/30 saves in 65 IP

Washington Nationals 2025 Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 23.1 – Crews’ dynasty value/hype has seen some fluctuations since being drafted, but the thing that was quietly flying under the radar, was how good he was on the bases, and for fantasy, that has a major impact on his value. He stole 25 bases in 100 games in the upper minors, and then he stole 12 bags with a double plus 29.3 ft/sec sprint in his 31 game MLB debut. He only stole 6 bases in 71 games his junior year of college, and then went 3 for 7 in his pro debut, so I can’t blame anyone for not expecting it, but it’s clearly a real skill he has, and it makes Crews insanely exciting for fantasy again. He combines the speed with above average contact rates (19.7% K%), above average chase rates (26.6%), and plus power (94.7 MPH FB/LD EV in the majors and a 90.2 MPH EV in the minors). The only quibble in his profile is the low launch (8.8 degrees), but he has the skillset to make that work, and he only needs to raise it a bit higher to be in a completely fine range, which I’m betting he will. The Langford vs. Crews debate might not end up as easy as we thought, and with Crews not really being considered in that lofty tier anymore, there could be a buy window here this off-season. If you can buy off the relatively subdued hype and .641 MLB OPS, I would be all over it. He’s a Top 50 dynasty asset in my book. 2025 Projection: 81/21/76/.259/.334/.448/26 Prime Projection: 94/27/97/.278/.359/.481/28

2) Travis Sykora – WAS, RHP, 20.11 – The way I see it, it’s a two man race between Thomas White and Travis Sykora to be the top rated pitching prospect in baseball by this time next year, and while I have White as the favorite because he did it at High-A for most of the season, Sykora simply didn’t get that opportunity. All he could do was obliterate the competition that was put in front of him, and obliterate he did with a 2.33 ERA and 39.2/8.2 K%/BB% in 85 IP at Single-A. He’s a 6’6”, 232 pound beast with 3 at least plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, slider and splitter. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he throws the ball over the plate, and he doesn’t have the most athletic looking delivery, but it’s not unathletic either. Age to level doesn’t matter nearly as much for pitchers as it does hitters, but I do think it’s still something to take into account, so him being 20 years old at Single-A makes me want to see it at higher levels before truly crowning him. Regardless, this is easy ace upside, and his hype is going to blow up in 2025. He’s the type you might want to stick your neck out to grab if he’s out there in your off-season prospect draft. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 15/3.31/1.12/225 in 185 IP

3) Jarlin Susana – WASH, RHP, 21.1 – I called Susana the Hunter Greene starter pack that was still sitting in the plastic, waiting to be put together coming into this season, and well, he started to assemble those pieces in 2024. After a rough start, he caught fire, putting up a 2.79 ERA with a 39.4/9.3 K%/BB% in his final 77.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The Greene comp is actually extremely on point for the similarly sized, 6’6”, 235 pound Susana with an upper 90’s fastball that doesn’t get enough movement, a double plus slider, below average control, and a developing splitter. The improvements that Greene made this season (turning the splitter into a legit third weapon and improving his fastball movement) are the same improvements Susana has to make as he continues to climb the ladder. He also needs to continue to improve his control/command, as he can start to look a big relievery at times. There is still plenty of risk here, but there is legit top of the rotation upside, and he could have a soft landing spot as an elite closer. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 12/3.55/1.26/187 in 165 IP

4) Brady House – WAS, 3B, 21.10 – House hasn’t had the elite prospect explosion we hoped for when he was a hyped high school bat, and his .241/.297/.402 triple slash with a 26.4/5.7 K%/BB% in 129 games split between Double-A and Triple-A isn’t all that impressive either, but when evaluating prospects, you have to have an eye towards who they can be, rather than who they are today, and House can definitely still be a middle of the order power bat at peak. His power did take a step forward this year with 19 homers, and he’s still a relatively svelte 6’4”, so I think there is more power coming when he gets into his man muscles years. Keep in mind he was just 21 years old in the upper minors, while hyped, similarly aged college bats were struggling or not exactly dominating in the lower minors. He needs to improve his hit tool and plate approach, which is why he isn’t ranked higher on this list, but he still looks on track to be that middle of the order power bat we thought he could be. The Nationals 3B job is also wide open for the taking in both the short term and the long term. 2025 Projection: 28/9/36/.230/.291/.408/4 Prime Projection: 73/24/84/.253/.326/.457/9

5) Seaver King – WAS, SS, 21.11 – You know how I often say that if you hit it hard, hit if often, and are fast that good things tend to happen, well, that is King’s game to a T. Selected 10th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’0”, 195 pound King has a lightning quick swing that is very powerful, controlled and produces very hard contact. He can spray hard liners all over the field. He combines that with plus to double plus speed with 31 steals in 33 attempts in 149 career college games. And finally, tack on tons of contact with a 12% K% in 60 games in the SEC. That is a profile that consistently makes things happen on a baseball field. There isn’t a ton of game power because of his hitting profile, but he still jacked out 16 homers in college, and he’s an aggressive hitter with high chase rates. That profile completely transferred to Single-A, both the good (.295 BA, 14.4% K%, and 10 steals in 20 games), and the bad (0 homers with a 53.8% GB%). The hit tool and speed give him a high floor, and if he can raise his launch, the raw power is in there to give him some legit upside too. He ranked 16th overall on the Top 56 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.274/.330/.427/26

6) Cade Cavalli – WAS, RHP, 26.7 – Cavalli underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2023, and he never made it back on an MLB mound in 2024 at all. He barely made it back on a minor league mound with 8.1 IP at High-A and rookie ball after getting shutdown with a “dead arm.” It’s just a reminder that coming back from Tommy John surgery is not always smooth, and while it’s not a death knell by any means, it’s not always a cake walk right back into prime form. Here is how I finished his blurb in last year’s Top 1,000, and honestly, it’s still exactly how I feel now: “When healthy, the 6’4”, 240 pound Cavalli does have plenty to be excited about with big time stuff (95+ MPH fastball) and three quality secondaries in his curve, changeup and slider. The control is inconsistent and his minor league career was a bit up and down, so combined with the Tommy John risk, he’s not someone I’m really targeting.” The one thing he does have going for him is that there is plenty of opportunity in Washington’s rotation, so the leash should be very long for him to shake the rust off. 2025 Projection: 4/4.38/1.37/94 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.03/1.32/162 in 159 IP

7) Elijah Green – WAS, OF, 21.4 – I almost wrote Green off completely this year after putting up a quite ridiculous 44% K% in 106 games at Single-A as a 20 year old, and honestly, maybe I still should, but it’s so important to shoot for upside in the vast majority of dynasty leagues when it comes to prospects, that I believe his upside is still worth the shot in this area of the rankings. Even with that stupid strikeout rate, he still slashed .262/.342/.487 with 9 homers, 25 steals (only one caught stealing), and a 41.4/10.4 K%/BB% in his last 51 games. I don’t even want to do that whole “if he can improve his hit tool” spiel because I couldn’t even do it while keeping a straight face with that dumb stupid strikeout rate, but on the say 5-10% chance he can get that strikeout rate into the 30-35% range by his mid 20’s, there is dangerous power/speed combo lurking in here to do the rest at an uber athletic 6’3′, 225 pounds. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 59/21/72/.221/.302/.418/17

8) Luke Dickerson – WAS, SS, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’0”, 190 Dickerson is a strong kid who won a state championship as as hockey player. You can see that toughness in the box with a powerful righty swing, and he combines that with good athleticism and speed. He signed for $3.8 million, which was the 21st highest signing bonus in the class and tells you how much Washington loved this kid. I do prefer a few other high school bats that got drafted in that 2nd round area over Dickerson, but it’s hard to argue with that signing bonus, and his talent is right there with them. He ranked 46th overall on the Top 56 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/20/79/.260/.330/.440/15

9) Alex Clemmey – WAS, LHP, 19.8 – I’ve been a sucker for a funky lefty delivery since the days of Josh Hader being one of the very first sleeper posts I’ve ever written back in 2015/16, and when you combine that with nasty stuff, it has all the makings of an upside pitching prospect that is worth taking the extra risk on. Clemmey is a projectable 6’6” with a mid 90’s fastball, a nasty, bat missing breaking ball, and a developing changeup that led to a 31.5% K% in 92.1 IP at Single-A. The 16.1% BB%, 4.58 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP aren’t nearly as impressive, and shows there is a long way to go with a lot of risk for him to reach his high K, mid rotation starter upside, but like with Hader, Clemmey has a soft landing spot as a potentially impact high leverage reliever as well. He was also 18 years old for most of the season, so him being raw was the expectation. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.34/180 in 150 IP

10) Andres Chaparro – WAS, 1B, 25.11 – I fear that Chaparro ends up a good but not great short side of a platoon 1B/DH considering the .551 OPS in 87 PA vs righties in his MLB debut, but Washington doesn’t have a deep system, and they also have opportunity at 1B/DH depending on what they do this off-season. Chaparro also has a good enough contact/power profile to make a fantasy impact if he does get the playing time. He hit 23 homers with a 17.9% K% in 105 games at Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with 4 homers and a 18.2% K% in 132 PA. He doesn’t crush the ball, but he hits it hard enough, and he has a lift and pull profile to get the most out of his power. It’s most likely a bench bat long term, but if he makes it through the off-season with a job, he’s not the worst guy to have on your team. 2025 Projection: 41/13/50/.241/.316/.430/2

Just Missed

11) Robert Hassell – WAS, OF, 23.8

12) Cayden Wallace – WAS, 3B, 23.7

13) Yohandy Morales – WAS, 1B/3B, 23.6

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It’s no secret that I enjoy a good victory lap like Wade Boggs on horseback taking a victory lap around Yankee Stadium after beating the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Like Boggs, I also eat chicken before I write every article, and I also drink 107 beers on a flight before going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles just hours later. Come to think of it, maybe that was CJ Abrams problem. Not that he partied until 8 am, but that he went 0 for 3 right after that. Dude, we all know that if you are going to be a rebel, you better produce. Maybe he did deserve that punishment after all ;). Now where was I? Oh yea, victory lapping. While I do believe in celebrating your hits, I also believe in taking the walk of shame for your misses, so after horseback victory lapping James Wood and half ass victory lapping DJ Herz in this post, let’s kick off the first Dynasty Thoughts/Strategy section of the off-season by finding lessons in who I consider to be my biggest miss, Shota Imanaga. I had Imanaga pegged as a good, but not great MLB pitcher, giving him a projection of 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP. He ended up going 15/2.91/1.02/173.1 in 173.1 IP. I believe where I went wrong was that I overrated fastball velocity, and while to my credit, the 91.7 MPH fastball actually didn’t miss that many bats (17.5% whiff%) or induce weak contact (91.2 MPH EV with .327 xwOBA), it was still a positive value pitch with a 52% usage rate, and it came with elite control, an elite secondary (splitter), a diverse pitch mix, and a history of ace production in the 2nd toughest league in the world. I shouldn’t have let a low 90’s fastball blind me to how good and established the rest of the profile was, and also to the fact that the fastball was still pretty good despite the low velocity. This wasn’t my only miss, but I believe that every other miss I had, my process was good and I don’t regret my take on them. Imanaga is the only one where I’m disappointed in my evaluation, and I will be taking those lessons with me headed into 2025.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on September 24, 2024October 3, 2024 by Michael Halpern

End of Season 2024 Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Let’s close out the regular season with a bang! It’s End of Season Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! As usual, I’m going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 25 free here on IBW. But you guys already know that the fun is really just getting started with tons of dynasty content coming all off-season on the Patreon, including Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Lists, Deep Positional Rankings, Strategy Articles, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Top 100+ FYPD Rankings, Top 500+ Prospect Rankings, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings and so much more! But first, here is the End of Season 2024 Top 438 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

1) (4) (4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.2 – Ohtani just went 50/50, is working on 55/55, and just might mess around and go 60/60 if he keeps going insane this last week. He also might already get back on the mound this post season. Age be damned, I don’t see how I could possibly pass on Ohtani for any other player in the game. It just seems silly.

2) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.3 – Only a 30/30 season for Witt? How cute

3) (2) (2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.8 – I told you to embrace the risk when it came to Elly, ranking him 9th overall this off-season, and it paid off in a major way with him going 25/65. The .261 BA was pretty damn good too considering expectations. I laugh in the face of risk … except when it comes to rollercoasters, horseback riding, skydiving, mountain climbing etc … but when it comes to taking an unproven uber athlete with hit tool risk 9th overall, danger is my middle name

4) (3) (3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.3 – Gunning for a 40/20 season. Career bests basically everywhere you look. If steals are devalued in your league (pts, 6+ cat leagues etc …), Gunnar would slide in ahead of Elly

Shadow4) (4) (4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.1 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. Without the pitching to put him over the top, the age does come into play here a bit

5) (5) (5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.11 – Is there any doubt that Boras will gun for the 20 year, $1 Billion contract? I don’t think he’ll be able to resist the leaked reports that Boris is asking for a billy. Steals are the only thing Soto lacks for fantasy

6) (7) (6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.7 – Returned from a deep bone bruise and has a 1.113 OPS in 14 games, leaving no concern about his elite ability for 2025. But he’ll get zero hype anyway because that is just how it goes for Tucker. Quiet Killer

7) (8) (15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

8) (17) (21) (12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 24.0 – I implored you with everything I had that by decree of fantasy law, you are required to go down with the ship when it comes to elite dynasty assets like Carroll, and luckily, you didn’t actually have to go down with the ship as he righted it, slashing .257/.350/.591 with 19 homers, 17 steals, and a 20.6/11.0 K%/BB% in his last 65 games. The shoulder looks good

9) (6) (9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.5 – 55 homers but it only comes with 10 steals. Super unimpressive

10) (9) (7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.3 – Perfect 6 for 6 on the bases, which crushes his previous career high of 1 steal. The knees must be feeling pretty good, which is all we want for dynasty

11) (12) (8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.7 – Returned from a right femoral stress reaction and is raking with a .939 OPS in 17 games. .393 xwOBA leaves little doubt that he’s still elite, but injuries are constantly popping up, and he’s not running as much this year with 10 steals in 97 games

12) (16) (14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.8 – Slashing .321/.381/.556 with 12 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.4/7.3 K%/BB% in his last 50 games. He had a .616 OPS in the 87 games before that. He took the slow start thing to a whole new level this year, but I don’t think his owners can stomach another repeat of this. He has to figure it out this off-season

13) (18) (25) (49) (61) (68) James Wood – WAS, OF, 22.0 – As long as the hit tool stayed in a reasonable range, there was zero doubt that Wood would shine, and the hit tool stayed in a reasonable range with a 28.4% K% and 29.7% whiff%. The 92.6/97.3 AVG/FB MPH EV and 28.6 ft/sec sprint did the rest. There are a lot of good candidates to be the top rookie on these rankings, but I’ll take the guy who absolutely smashes the ball much, much, much harder than any of them

14) (19) (27) (24) (20) (18) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 20.6 – Slashed .305/.364/.540 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 17.1/7.7 K%/BB% in his last 91 games. He just went .273/21/21 as a 20 year old. Wood vs. Chourio is a coin flip

15) (10) (23) (28) (23) (22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.6 – We can now put the “Vlad has only had a great year in a minor league ballpark” narrative to rest. His 168 wRC+ is a career high this year. Granted he hit 48 homers in the minor league park and only 30 this year, but still. He officially locked in elite status

16) (14) (11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 32.0 – Ramirez might go 40/40 and nobody cares. Barely hear about it. The Ohtani Shadow is real

17) (20) (22) (62) (102) (151) Jackson Merrill – SDP, OF/SS, 21.4 – Merrill’s argument for being the top rookie on this list is that his .370 xwOBA outpaces them all, and by a large margin. His extremely low launch used to be an area of concern, and now his 14.7 degree launch is leaps and bounds above Chourio and Wood. The reason he sits 3rd among them though is because he doesn’t seem to run quite as much throughout his career

18) (22) (17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.3 – 1.99 ERA with a 32.9/6.3 K%/BB% in 131 IP. The easiest #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ranking I’ve ever made. The only reason he doesn’t rank even higher is that pitchers break, and pitchers that throw 98.8 MPH seem to break even more. Sucks to even acknowledge, but it’s part of the game.

19) (13) (10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.11 – Career 142 wRC+ and has a 143 wRC+ this season. Still elite and I would bet on him being elite (or near elite) deep into his 30’s

20) (15) (13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.11 – Mookie is on pace to steal the most bases in a season since 2018, and if he didn’t get hurt, he would have surpassed 20. The decline years are lurking, but they ain’t here yet

21) (27) (26) (27) (22) (20) Wyatt Langford – TEX, OF, 22.10 – It took until September, but the underlying numbers kept saying to stay patient, and the breakout is here now, slashing .316/.395/.605 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.1/10.5 K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s crushing the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV over that time. I feel good about having Chourio as my #1 overall prospect over Langford (and Holliday) last off-season, but this story is far from over. This is just Chapter 1

22) (23) (30) (39) (32) (26) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 30.10 – After nearly another 30/30 season, Lindor might finally not be so underrated going into next year. But I will say that him fighting through this back injury with extra injections to get back on the field doesn’t feel all that great for his long term health as he gets deeper into his 30’s. I agree with his decision to gut it out, don’t get me wrong, but I think it’s worth mentioning

23) (32) (53) (94) (123) (165) Jarren Duran – BOS, OF, 28.0 – Backed up the 2023 breakout with an even better year in 2024, currently sitting 15th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He hits it hard, he’s lightning fast, and the hit tool just keeps on improving. There is nothing that says he’s a fluke at all. Value highly with confidence

24) (31) (40) (41) (36) (38) Oneil Cruz – PIT, SS, 25.11 – 95.6 MPH EV trails only Ohtani and Judge, and just barely. He now has a .255 career BA in 987 career PA, so while the hit tool is still a risk, I don’t think it’s that risky. And he went 22 for 23 on the bases. This is a truly elite dynasty asset, and he still feels on the underrated side

25) (21) (12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.11 – Sent down to the minors because he was partying at a casino until 8 AM when he had a 1 PM game. He’s 23 years old. The Nationals are so far out of it. I say give the kid a break. This doesn’t impact his dynasty value at all for me. He just went 20/30 with his power ticking up a notch this year. I think there is another jump coming in the future. This is just the beginning

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on September 16, 2024September 16, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/16/24)

Welcome to the final Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown of the season! But here at Imaginary Brick Wall, not only do we run through the finish line, there is no finish line! The rest of this week on the Patreon will be more Rundowns and the September Mailbag Podcast. Then the final week of the regular season will be the End of Season Top 400+ Dynasty Baseball Rankings. And after that, the fun is just getting started with tons of off-season content like Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Lists, Deep Dynasty Positional Rankings, Strategy Articles, Top 100+ FYPD Rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings and so much more. But first, here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (9/16/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! COMING THIS WEEK
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.6 – Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted. He was my #1 target in his 2020/21 FYPD class after getting drafted a ridiculous 19th overall, writing in his FYPD blurb, “Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus.” I’ve basically named him a target every 3 months since then, even ranking him within my Top 100 overall this off-season at #99. And it’s all paying off in a major way right now with him exploding on the MLB level. He homered yet again yesterday going the opposite way on a ball he didn’t even get close to all of. That gives him 7 homers with a 91.3 MPH EV in his last 30 games. A 94.1 MPH FB/LD EV on the season is no joke power. He’s about to rank in the Top 75 on the End of Season Dynasty Rankings coming next week. Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.

Sean Burke CHW, RHP, 24.9 – I’m far from ready to call Burke a target, but I will say that there are some interesting things brewing here that deserve our attention. He had his 2nd strong MLB outing in a row, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 5/2 K/BB vs. Oakland. The fastball sat 95.4 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while the slider and curve were solid as well with a 33% and 30% whiff%. It led to a 31% whiff% overall. His first outing against Cleveland was more of the same, and he now has a 2.25 ERA with a 30.4% whiff% in 8 IP. He has size (6’6”, 230 pounds), velocity (mid 90’s heat that misses bats) and bat missing secondaries (slider, curve change). He didn’t perform well at Triple-A with a 4.62 ERA in 64.1 IP, but all 4 of his pitches missed a ton of bats leading to a 31% K%. Control is the biggest problem here with well below average walk rates his entire career, but super tall pitchers can sometimes take longer to make control gains, and we all know that pitching development isn’t linear. So far in the majors he has a 8.3% BB%. Again, I’m not calling him a target, but I am saying there is some very interesting stuff going on here. There are definitely ingredients for a big breakout in the future, and as a free pick in the vast majority of leagues, I don’t hate it all. Consider this your first little warning on Burke.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 22.1 – The Forgotten Unicorn just so quietly slides under the radar, staying in the shadows like a Yeti. But this 6’6” uber athlete is going to hit the majors one day, put up an over 90 MPH EV with plus speed, and all of a sudden everyone is going to be in a tither talking about him as Oneil Cruz/James Wood 2.0 (or I guess 3.0). He’s giving us a taste at Triple-A right now after smoothly obliterated a ball out of the ballpark that the fans didn’t even budge on. That is unicorn power right there. He’s now dominating the level, slashing .292/.375/.481 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 28.3/10.8 K%/BB% in 29 games. He just ranked 53rd overall on the Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just hit the Patreon last week, and while I feel like I’m high on him, I don’t think that ranking is nearly high enough on 2nd thought. This could be a Top 20 fantasy prospect at least right now. He’s a major target this off-season before everyone realizes there is a Forgotten Unicorn on the loose.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 23.5 – Speaking of forgotten unicorns, Spencer Jones is turning into one, but I think that is a major mistake. Don’t sell low on this man over the off-season no matter what you do. He had big day yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a double, homer, and 0 strikeouts. He now has only 3 strikeouts in his last 6 games, and while that obviously doesn’t even come close to overriding the 36.8% K% in 122 games at Double-A, I think it does represent his ability to get that K rate closer to the 30% range long term. And a 30% K% is all he needs to let the huge talent shine with 17 homers, 25 steals, and a 124 wRC+ despite the high K rate. Selling low on this kind of upside is a major mistake in my opinion. Hang on for dear life.

Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 22.2 – Lawlar finally showed up to the bar 5 minutes before closing time, and his night is just getting started, taking a shot out to deep left field for his first homer since June 11th. He looks no worse for the wear so far with a .879 OPS in 5 games since returning from a hamstring injury, and he’s also going to be headlining the Winter Ball after party to get more reps in this year, which will be fun to follow. When he’s on the field, he produces. Don’t write him off because of the injuries.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 22.6 – I held strong on Ramos through the struggles in the August Prospects Rankings, writing, “Down year with a 74 wRC+ in 66 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. It does have his value dropping, but I still believe in his hit/power combo long term. Down years happen, and he has a long track record of success, including at Double-A, so I would stay patient” … and that patience paid off. Since then he slashed .302/.407/.542 with 6 homers and a 19.3/11.4 K%/BB% in 25 games at Triple-A, which earned him a callup to the bigs where he has kept it going. He smashed a 397 foot homer and a 103.2 MPH double yesterday, and he now has a 151 wRC+ with a 90.1 MPH EV and 2 homers in 7 games since getting recalled. He also has legit speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not a big base stealer, he should contribute in the category. He reminds me of a right handed version of Wilyer Abreu. I was high on both as prospects, and neither got nearly enough hype. Ramos should still be very cheap this off-season.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 24.5 – If you missed out on Lawrence Butler, Denzel Clarke is here to give you a do over. They were once upon a time ranked very close together as tooled up A’s prospects with huge power/speed combos and major hit tool issues. But while Butler massively improved his hit tool in 2023, Clarke wasn’t able to do the same … until now. He went 2 for 4 with a 1/1 K/BB and 3 steals yesterday at Double-A, and he’s now slashing .317/.387/.524 with 9 homers, 30 steals, and a 23.5/8.6 K%/BB% in his last 73 games. That 23.5% K% is huge to see as his K rates have sat at or near 30% for his entire career. He’s hitting the ball on the ground a lot more this year, but he has the raw power and speed to make a low launch work, especially if it helps his hit tool. He’s a major stash candidate headed into the off-season.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.6 – Jenkins got the call to Double-A, and while there was little doubt that the plate approach was legit, he’s putting it in Sharpie now with a 14.3/10.7 K%/BB% in 6 games as a 19 year old. He’s also leaving little doubt that he will be a legit contributor in steals, going 2 for 5 with his 2nd stolen base at the level yesterday. He’s only hitting .160, so the surface stats aren’t that great, but I’m more excited about the plate approach and steals transferring. Just like Kyle Tucker’s base running ability got underrated in the minors, Jenkins’ might be getting underrated as well. He has 17 steals in 82 games on the season, and if those can really stick in the majors, it’s Kyle Tucker all over again.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.10 – I was the high guy on Shaw pre draft. I was the high guy on Shaw last off-season, and I’ll continue to be the high guy on Shaw this off-season, ranking him 3rd overall on the Updated Top 322 Prospects Rankings (Patreon). And he rewarded my continued faith in him with a huge day yesterday, going 4 for 5 with a homer, triple, and a steal. He’s now slashing .296/.382/565 with 7 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 29 games at the level. His 91.4 MPH EV backs up the power. He can do it all offensively. That is an elite fantasy prospect in my book.

Aidan Smith TBR, OF, 20.1 – Smith got the call to High-A for the playoffs, and he made his mark yesterday, going 1 for 3 with a bomb that showed off both the power and bat control. He’s a lift and pull machine with a 35.7% GB% and 54.4% Pull%, and we all know Tampa’s ballpark is made for lift and pull. They traded for Smith for a reason. He’s already a Top 100 prospect for me, and his hype has been percolating all season, but it could truly explode in 2025.

Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.10 – Parker Meadows was left for dead, but he has roared back with a vengeance since getting recalled to the majors, and I think I can now officially say that he was a gosh darn hit for me! He homered on Saturday and is now slashing .297/.342/.536 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.3/6.7 K%/BB% over his last 35 games. He now has a 110 wRC+ on the season!!! Barrels (8.7% Barrel%), launch (19.6 degree launch) and speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint) is what I loved coming into the season, and it’s all coming together now. I admit I lost faith when times got tough, but in the end, he was who I thought he was.

James Wood WAS, OF, 22.0 – I was all in on Wood this off-season, ranking him a super high 68th overall on the Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he has now elevated into an elite dynasty asset like I foresaw. He smashed 2 more homers yesterday at 109 MPH and 107.7 MPH to break a bit of a drought, giving him 7 homers in 66 games. He’s launch proof with a 92.6 MPH EV, but that one degree launch will have to come up to fully tap into his raw power, and I have zero doubts that it will. The K rate isn’t great at 28.9%, but a 29.7% whiff% isn’t bad, and both numbers are not really in the true danger zone. Those swing and miss numbers are encouraging to me long term. And finally the speed is legit too with 12 steals and a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he has been caught 7 times, which isn’t great). He already ranked 18th overall on the August Dynasty Rankings (Patreon). It feels like all of the hyped rookies have mostly hit the ground running, well, except for …

Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.9 – 0 for 1 and now has a .371 OPS with a 34.1/5.7 K%/BB% and 85.5 MPH EV in his last 88 PA. What are we going to do with you Jackson this off-season? We are going to be patient, but damn you are making it tough.

Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.9 – 0 for 2 with 2 K’s and I think we can now officially say that Mayo’s pro debut is a disaster. He has a negative 6 wRC+ with a .086 BA and 47.5% K%. I’m staying patient here too, but the Baby Birds tried to leave the nest to take their first flight, and they fell flat on their faces. Don’t sell low on either this off-season, but it’s not the debut we wanted to see.

Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.11 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s as it hasn’t gotten better for Marte all season either. I tried to give him some benefit of the doubt to shake off the rust early, but all I see is more rust. It’s a straight disaster across the board with a 86.5 MPH EV (91.3 MPH in 2023) and 32.9/3.8 K%/BB% (20.3/6.9 in 2023). He even got slower with a 4.3 HP to 1B time in 2023 vs. a 4.43 time this year. To me, that indicates that maybe we have to take seriously the possibility that he actually was cheating, and it wasn’t just a case of trying to heal quicker or something like that. That is a drop off in power, speed, and plate approach. He almost can’t be worse next year, and he’s still young, so I’m definitely not writing him off, but I’m not targeting him this off-season either.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on September 10, 2024September 13, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 322 September 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

Jasson Dominguez was originally ranked first overall when I started this list, but with his callup last night, he is no longer eligible. So a brand new #1 prospect is crowned in Kristian Campbell! Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for this list, and I use that eligibility because I find lists are more fun/interesting/valuable when they highlight new up and coming talent. Dominguez was already the first overall prospect in the August Rankings, so he had his time. The Updated Dynasty Rankings coming in two weeks will have all of the prospects in the majors ranked, and obviously any player who retains prospect eligibility at the end of the season will be reinserted into the off-season prospects rankings. Bur for now, it’s all about ranking prospects still in the minors. As usual, I go over 300 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 322 September 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-AUGUST TOP 274 DYNASTY RANKS (UPDATED TOP 400+ DYNASTY RANKS COMING IN 2 WEEKS)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: AUGUST MAILBAG! (SEPT MAILBAG COMING NEXT WEEK)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Team Prospect Rankings, Deep Positional Rankings, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

**Any player currently in the majors is ineligible

1) (34) (157) (UR) (UR) Kristian Campbell – BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 – A new #1 overall fantasy prospect is crowned, and that man’s name is Kristian Campbell. Here is what I wrote about Campbell in his latest Dynasty Baseball Rundown blurb, “I was asked about a comp for Campbell in the August Mailbag Podcast, and I couldn’t really think up of a great comp. But after watching him continue his absolute tear through Triple-A, maybe Fernando Tatis Jr. is the perfect comp. I didn’t want to go that lofty on the comp, but he has the size (6’3”, 210 pounds), the athleticism (23 steals) and power (20 homers) to live up to it.” … he currently has a 90 MPH EV in 16 games at Triple-A, and on his latest homer, I think he dislocated his shoulder with one of the most bad intentions swings I’ve seen. The launch is low and the hit tool still has some risk, so he’s not an absolutely perfect prospect, but he’s clearly an elite prospect. Campbell vs. Anthony is a coin flip for me, and Anthony being two years younger almost gave him the nod, but ultimately I couldn’t pass up on Campbell. He’s my top dog.

2) (3) (12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.4 – How about the Sox having the top 2 prospects in the minor leagues right now? And they have far more than that too, they are not just top heavy. I hope the Yanks and Orioles are having their fun, because the Sox are coming real soon. As for Anthony, Triple-A isn’t slowing him down at all with a 149 wRC+ and 18.2/12.7 K%/BB% in 23 games. High groundball rates and poor base stealing are the only quibbles in his profile. He’s an upper middle class man’s Gunnar Henderson

3) (4) (8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.10 – Shaw has a 91.4 MPH EV with 4 homers in 23 games at Triple-A just in case anyone was questioning his power at 5’9”. He combines that with contact, approach and speed. He still feels underrated to me

4) (6) (15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.2 – 28.1% K% in 111 games at Double-A is starting to creep up there, but it’s not high enough to scare me off. He can be just fine with a K% in the high 20’s throughout his career, and if he get eventually get it under 25%, we could be looking at an elite fantasy player with his at least plus power/speed combo

5) (5) (9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.6 – Finally returned from a thumb injury and is now getting his first shot at Triple-A where he has a 41.7% K% in 5 games (as well as 1 homer and a 25% BB%). If anyone can hit under .200 with an over .400 OBP, it will be Rodriguez

6) (9) (14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.1 – His profile is almost unheard of. A 6’9” lefty with double plus stuff and plus control. Even Randy Johnson struggled with control earlier in his career. Randy actually had an insane 318 walks in 400.1 minor league innings pitched before getting the call to the bigs. Schultz is unprecedented. He’s easily my top pitching prospect in the game.

7) (11) (11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 20.1 – The upper minors definitely slowed him down a bit, and Triple-A is slowing him down more than a bit with a 41.3/4.3 K%/BB% and 19 wRC+ in 10 games. He’s barely 20 years old, so it’s an extremely encouraging season overall, but his comp maybe goes from Yordan Alvarez to Rafael Devers. Not bad

8) (12) (72) (58) (88) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 17.10 – De Vries vs. Jenkins vs. Walcott seems to be a popular debate, and I have De Vries first out of that group right now because he’s the one who has already tapped into his raw power the most. He ripped 11 homers in his last 40 games and he has a 49.3% FB% on the season. All 3 are going to be great, but that is what gives the small edge to De Vries at the moment.

9) (13) (23) (8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.6 – I comped Jenkins to Kyle Tucker, and Jenkins’ first year of pro ball is going very similarly to Tucker’s. Tucker had 9 homers with 32 steals and a 16.3/10.1 K%/BB% in 117 games in the lower minors, and Jenkins has 6 homers with 15 steals and a 12.7/15.6 K%/BB% in 76 games. Like Tucker, the power explosion is almost certainly coming

10) (14) (7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.1 – Lawlar tore his shoulder swinging a bat. He broke his thumb fielding a grounder. And he suffered a major hamstring strain presumably when running. Swinging a bat, fielding grounders, and running is basically the job, and getting majorly injured so often while doing these routine things makes it appropriate to slap the dreaded “injury prone” label on him. The good news is that he’s back from the hamstring injury and went 1 for 5 in his return. He just has to stay healthy

11) (40) (112) (75) (158) Bubba Chandler – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – I was a little hesitant this off-season to go all in on Chandler, because while the huge stuff was undeniable, he still needed a lot of refinement. Well, that refinement came this off-season and he’s now destroying Triple-A with a 1.93 ERA and 32.1/9.8 K%/BB% in 28 IP. The fastball averages 96.7 MPH and is a bat missing weapon. The slider is his most used secondary and it induces weak contact and misses bats. The changeup is his best secondary with a 40.5% whiff% and 79.7 MPH EV against at Triple-A. And finally the curve is a good pitch too. As long as the control/command stays solid, this is an easy ace. Pitt is absolutely stacked with both high end talent and depth

12) (8) (FYPD-1) (NA) (NA) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.0 – A lot of these college bats are getting a cold splash of water to the face after putting up video game numbers in college. Bazzana is hitting well with a 126 wRC+ in 27 games at High-A, but a .238/.369/.396 slashline with 3 homers and a 25.4% K% is not exactly screaming no doubt MLB superstar. I still love him, and I think he’s still going to be an impact fantasy player, but it’s at least something to think about

13) (17) (FYPD-2) (NA) (NA) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.0 – Profile is completely transferring to pro ball, slashing .295/.405/.400 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 11.9/12.7 K%/BB% in 29 games at Single-A. His upside might not be quite as high as some of the other bats, but he probably has the highest floor, and I do think there is 20/20 upside in here

14) (20) (22) (55) (83) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.3 – The last step to elite prospect status is an uptick in game power with 10 homers in 107 games, and while he certainly has the huge raw power in the tank, we only have to look at Jordan Walker to not take it for granted

15) (21) (33) (30) (33) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 18.7 – The 25.5% K% is still on the high side, and he hasn’t fully tapped into his raw power with 10 homers in 116 games at High-A, but all of that is just nitpicking. He has a 123 wRC+ as an 18 year old at High-A. College hitters are struggling to keep their heads above water at that level right now. Future star

16) (24) (48) (28) (28) Max Clark – DET, OF, 19.9 – I gave him the Corbin Carroll/Pete Crow Armstrong comp, and he was exactly as advertised in the lower minors. When the power ticks up, like we are seeing with Pete Crow right now, there is superstar upside

17) (15) (13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.1 – Is everyone just ignoring the 12.7% BB% in 73.2 IP at Double-A? I love Jobe just as much as the next guy, but it feels like this is getting majorly glossed over at the moment. He’s also had some injury issues in his career. Huge upside, but the risk is starting to creep up there too

18) (123) (265) (263) (319) Kumar Rocker – TEX, RHP, 24.8 – Returned from Tommy John surgery and he’s going full elite pitching prospect on us with a 1.96 ERA and 55/5 K/BB in 36.2 IP at mostly Double-A and Triple-A. The fastball sits 97.9 MPH and the slider is double plus to elite. He also mixes in a cutter, sinker and slider. If you want to ignore all risk from the shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery which delayed his career, he has a case to be the top pitching prospect in the game, but I think factoring in some risk is prudent. All pitchers are risky, so I’m not going to dock him too much, but I’m not going to put him as the #1 pitcher on this list. He’s going to make his MLB debut on Thursday, and since he’s not up quite yet, he cracks this list.

19) (22) (27) (17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.2 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024. He has the type of elite upside to take the Tommy John discount on, but I do think you have to factor some risk in

20) (61) (92) (92) (105) Bryce Eldridge – SFG, OF, 19.9 – His dominance at High-A was so spectacular (187 wRC+ in 48 games) that it earned him a promotion to Double-A as a 19 year old, and he’s looked great there too with 1 homer, 19.2/11.5 K%/BB% and 115 wRC+ in 6 games. He’s 6’7” with elite power. No two ways about it at this point. He’s a truly elite power hitting prospect

21) (19) (18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.9 – 141 wRC+ in 77 games at Double-A, but how big the power/speed combo will end up is still a question. He has only 8 homers with a 47.4% GB%, and he’s not a burner despite a solid 13 steals. He might end up more solid than standout in the majors, but at only 21, there is plenty of development time left to go

22) (25) (24) (12) (35) Colt Emerson – SEA, SS, 19.2 – High-A slowed him down a bit with a 90 wRC+ and 21.6% K% in 29 games, but on the plus side, he’s running a ton with 9 steals at the level. He’s 15 for 17 in 70 games on the season, so while he might not be a true burner, he looks like he could be a skilled baserunner

23) (23) (FYPD-3) (NA) (NA) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 21.8 – Yet to debut

24) (27) (28) (19) (68) Tink Hence – STL, RHP, 22.1 – Little Tink can’t seem to get true elite pitching prospect buzz because he isn’t a big guy, but size aside, the dude is elite with a 2.76 ERA and 34.4/8.0 K%/BB% in 78.1 IP at Double-A. He has the nasty stuff to back up the numbers. If he was a broad 6’2”, there would be zero questions about him

25) (35) (70) (82) (189) Thomas White – MIA, LHP, 19.10 – 2.61 ERA with a 29.9/8.3 K%/BB% in 62 IP at High-A. He has the size and stuff to back it up. He’s on the short list for #1 pitching prospect in the game once the guys in the upper minors graduate

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 20, 2024August 21, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Combo Platter Week: August 2024 Top 274 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Welcome to Combination Platter Week! I’m going to try something different this week. I usually only serve up Rankings one week, and Dynasty Rundowns the next, but I’m just feeling a Combination Platter Week where I serve up a little of both. Why order just the General Tso’s Chicken when you can get the General Tso’s Chicken and Roast Pork Fried Rice combo platter (with wonton soup instead of the egg roll, please)? I’m going to do a Top 274 update of the Dynasty Rankings for the first half of the week (Top 25 free here on IBW), and then I am going to finish it off on Thursday and Friday with Dynasty Rundowns. I’ve just been having a lot of fun with Dynasty Rundowns that I don’t want to skip a full week, but I’m definitely itching to update the top half of the dynasty rankings with so many of the young breakouts going crazy right now. The latter part of the dynasty rankings are mostly prospects (which you can see the recently updated August Top 327 Prospects Rankings for that) or lower upside vets anyway, so hopefully this will be a best of both worlds type of thing. And it’s only something I want to try out and would be an occasional thing. Full Top 400+ Dynasty Rankings will still come out in September. Without further ado, here is the August 2024 Top 274 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

1) (1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.2 – Witt was already my #2 overall ranked dynasty player coming into the season, and then he messed around and improved in almost all areas of his game, putting up career best marks in Barrel% (14.3%), EV (92.9 MPH), xwOBA (.418), K% (15%), and BB% (7.3%). The only thing that hasn’t improved in his baserunning, going 25 for 37 on the bases, but I think we can forgive him for that. He is the runaway #1 Dynasty player in the game.

2) (2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.7 – I closed out Elly’s off-season Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” … Taking that “risk” paid off majorly as he’s on pace to go almost 30/80. He raised his launch to a respectable 10.3 degrees and he improved his plate approach with an above average 26.1% Chase%. Keep in mind he’s still just 22 years old, so if he can bring that 31.3% K% down into the mid 20’s at some point, Whoa Nelly

3) (3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.2 – Career bests in Barrel% (12.6%), EV (93.2 MPH), xwOBA (.386), K% (22.5%) and Chase% (21.8%). He also improved his 2 biggest weaknesses, putting up a .891 OPS vs. lefties and running more with 14 steals. He still isn’t running quite enough to surpass Witt and Cruz though

4) (4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.1 – Ohtani ranks 1st on the CBS Player Rater, but only 3rd on the Razzball Player Rater. Battle of the Player Raters!! I’m a Razzball guy, so I’ll trust theirs. He is 1 homer and 3 steals away from joining the elite 40-40 club that has only 5 current members (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Alfonso Soriano, Ronald Acuna). And he’s going to be back on the mound next year too. Even at 30 years old, it might be silly to place him anywhere else but #1 in a daily moves league, and in pure win now mode, he’s almost definitely #1

Shadow4) (4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.1 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. The Shadow Ohtani is now shadowing the Real Ohtani … the world is folding in on itself

5) (5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.10 – I nailed Soto’s off-season Top 1,000 blurb so hard that even I’m starting to question if I can actually see into the future ;), “This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more) … Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real.” He’s having that season with a 188 wRC+ that is 2nd only to Judge and a .478 xwOBA that is tied with Judge. I’m just imaging Boras manically laughing with every homer Soto hits

6) (9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.4 – Judge’s career 171 wRC+ is 9th in baseball history, behind only Josh Gibson, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Oscar Charleston, Willard Brown, Buck Leonard, Turkey Stearnes (great name), and Barry Bonds. Not bad. Trout is 13th overall, Yordan is 15th and Soto is 19th.

7) (6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.6 – Out since June 3rd with a deep bone bruise in his shin. He was putting up the quietest 174 wRC+ in baseball history before going down with the injury

8) (15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.7 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

9) (7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.2 – He’s running WILD this year with 5 whole steals. He had 2 steals in his entire career prior to this EXPLOSION. And oh yea, he’s still consistently elite with a 162 wRC+

10) (23) (28) (23) (22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.5 – The underlying numbers have been screaming Vlad was legit elite, and once again, the underlying numbers didn’t steer us wrong as he’s slashing a ridiculous .421/.492/.904 with 13 homers in his last 30 games

11) (19) (26) (29) (23) Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 27.9 – Having a career year in his age 27 season with a career high 156 wRC+, .968 OPS, and 93.8 MPH EV. The guy is a consistent beast

12) (8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.7 – Out since June 21st with a right femoral stress reaction. It’s taking awhile for him to heel, which I’m taking as a good sign that he isn’t taking any “shortcuts.” His .400 xwOBA was in the top 4% of the league before going down with the injury. It’s clear he can still be truly elite when healthy

13) (10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.10 – .365 xwOBA is the 2nd lowest mark of his career in the Statcast era, but nothing is really showing any signs of decline, and his 145 wRC+ is right in line with career norms (142 career wRC+). I’ve said it before, but Harper strikes me as the type who will be raking deep into his 30’s

14) (11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.11 – Showing zero signs of decline and he even hit the hardest ball of his career this year with a 116.6 MPH Max EV. He’s also 6 steals away from breaking his personal record, and 29 steals is already the most steals he’s had in a season since he was 25 years old

15) (13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.10 – .986 OPS in 7 games since returning from a broken hand. I would say he’s fully healed

16) (14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.7 – 1.022 OPS in his last 20 games. .338 xwOBA is much better than the .308 wOBA. He still crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he’s still lightning fast with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint. Ain’t no way in hell I’m selling low on Julio

17) (21) (12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.11 – The power has finally returned, slashing .252/.341/.622 with 11 homers, 6 steals, and a 27/15 K/BB in his last 34 games. This is why I was so adamant that with a player like this, you go down with the ship before selling low

18) (25) (49) (61) (68) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.11 – He’s doing his best Elly De La Cruz impression with huge EV’s (94.6 MPH), a low launch (3.1 degrees), speed (6 steals with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint), and some hit tool issues (30.5/11.9 K%/BB%) in his 42 game MLB debut. He’s not nearly as fast as Elly, but he’s hitting the ball much harder. He’s going to join the truly elite dynasty assets in no time, if he isn’t there already.

19) (27) (24) (20) (18) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 20.5 – Here is what I wrote about Chourio in the 8/16/24 Dynasty Baseball Rundown, “We already know the Chourio level up has arrived, and he keeps arriving after going 2 for 4 with a double and a homer last night. He’s now knocking on the door of a .280/20/20 season in his rookie year at .274/15/16 in 108 games. I’m feeling pretty good about my very tough decision to place Jackson Chourio at the #1 prospect in baseball this off-season over the likes of Holliday, Langford, and Caminero. This isn’t a victory lap as all of them were about equal in my book, they are still very close, and they can end up flip flopping their entire careers, but I spent a TON of time thinking about this in the off-season, and it’s cool to see it seems I had the right read, at least for now.”

20) (22) (62) (102) (151) Jackson Merrill – SDP, OF/SS, 21.3 – Merrill had a 59.9% GB% in 2022 at Single-A, and it is all the way down to 37.9% this year in the majors. That improvement is wild, especially when you consider it hasn’t impacted his hit tool at all with a 18.1% K% and .290 BA, or his hard hit ability at all with a 89.8 MPH EV. He’s one of the most exciting young players in the game

21) (12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.10 – 11 for 12 on the bases in his last 29 games, so any concerns about his baserunning can be put to rest, but on the flip side, his power metrics are starting to regress too with a .522 OPS in his last 33 games

22) (17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.2 – The most slam dunk generational pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, and he hasn’t disappointed with a 2.30 ERA and 31.8/6.3 K%/BB% in 98 IP. Strasburg put up a 2.91 ERA with a 33.6/6.2 K%/BB% in 68 IP his first year out of college too. Let’s just hope Skenes’ career has more longevity, but with all of these upper 90 MPH flamethrowers dropping like flies, you sadly know it’s not going to be a decade+ of unscathed 180 IP+ years. That’s just how it goes for these guys

23) (30) (39) (32) (26) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 30.9 – Lindor might be the most underrated fantasy and real life player in baseball. His 5.9 WAR is 5th best in baseball and he’s on pace for his second straight 30/30 season

24) (16) (18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 31.1 – 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed is a career low by far, and while you can blame the hamstring strain, injuries as you get older is generally what slows you down. This is the first sign of decline for the 31 year old Turner, and we know speed first profiles do not age well for dynasty. He’s stolen only 2 bases in his last 29 games. Having said that, Turner is an elite base stealer, going 14 for 15 this year and going a perfect 30 for 30 in 2023. I think he will be running until the day they tear the uniform off him

25) (18) (20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.8 – Pure dominance all season with a 2.49 ERA and 30.1/5.4 K%/BB% in 155.1 IP. It was announced he will get extra rest down the stretch though, which really puts a damper on my off-season bet for Skubal to lead the league in strikeouts at +8000 odds ($10 to win $800). He’s currently just 2 K’s behind the leader, Chris Sale. Damn

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 12, 2024August 12, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/12/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (8/12/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON & OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Jac Caglionone KCR, 1B/LHP, 21.6 – In the last Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote that “those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.” … and while it’s still early, some of them aren’t only getting a cold splash to the face, they are going full ice bucket challenge on us. Jac threw up an 0 for 4 day with 3 K’s yesterday, and he’s now sporting a .150 BA, 64 wRC+, and 31.8% K% in 5 games at High-A. You ain’t in Kansas, er, Florida, anymore Jac, you are in Davenport, Iowa, and you are not adjusting well, so far. 5 games is still insanely early and these are human beings going through a major life change, playing for a new team, new coaches, new teammates, new bats, new balls, new cities etc … definitely don’t overrate just 5 games, but also, college is over.

Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – Bazzana got shipped out to Eastlake, Ohio, and he’s having that same ice bucket crash on his head, going 0 for 4 with 2 K’s yesterday. He’s now sporting a .156 BA, 101 wRC+, and 33.3% K% in 9 games at High-A. A little better than Jac, but ain’t nothing like the nonstop destruction of college where everyone was hitting a homer every other game. This brings me no joy to report. I just read the news … You stay classy San Diego, I’m Ron Burgundy?

Charlie Condon COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.5 – Sorry Charlie, but you can’t escape either after going 0 for 4 with 2 K’s yesterday. You are now sporting a 40.9%/4.5% K%/BB% in 5 games at High-A. Granted it comes with a 131 wRC+, but the hit tool was the one concern here, and well, it’s still a concern. This isn’t me panicking on these guys by any means. Don’t get it twisted. This is just me watching, and going, hmmmmmmm …

Kaelen Culpepper MIN, SS, 21.8 – Let me try to turn that frown upside down, because Culpepper is someone starting to get me really excited with his pro debut. Here is what I wrote in his Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon) blurb, ranking him 33rd overall, “He reminds me a lot of Minnesota’s 2nd round pick in 2023, Luke Keaschall, who has similar size, speed, and feel to hit. Nothing jumps off the screen, but they get the job done in all facets of the game. Minnesota has had a lot of success with Keaschall, and Culpepper looks to be next.” … and Culpepper is living up to that comp. Keaschall had an explosive pro debut, and so is Culpepper, going 2 for 5 with a double yesterday, and is now 5 for 13 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 1/2 K/BB in 3 games at Single-A. Here is video of his first pro homer with the ball exploding off his bat. 33rd already feels too low. He’s moving into the early to mid 20’s for me right now.

Nick Kurtz OAK, 1B, 21.4 – Kurtz got his pro career started on Saturday at Single-A, and he cracked his first pro homer in game one. He’s doing his thing with a .500 OBP and 241 wRC+ in 2 games. Keep in mind that Jac, Condon, and Bazzana are all at High-A, while Culpepper and Kurtz are at Single-A, and at this point of the season in particular, I do think that is a nice size jump in difficulty level.

Christian Moore LAA, 2B, 21.9 – And how can I not mention Christian Moore right now, even though he didn’t play yesterday. He needed a break from hitting all those homers I guess with 6 homers in 8 games, and 5 homers in 6 games at Double-A. He’s looking at the struggles of the guys getting drafted before him and laughing. We all already knew he was going to be up with the big league club in no time, and now that’s a foregone conclusion. The only question is, how far is he going to rise in off-season First Year Player Drafts. Would it be crazy to take him 1st overall at this point? No. But would I take him first overall? … … … … … I don’t know, don’t make me answer that right now ;). I was already super high on him though, ranking him 38th overall on the Updated Top 327 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 23.10 – I should just start calling these the Monday Morning Schwellenbach Rundown, because Schwellebach shoves, pushes, kicks, punches, and karate chops every Sunday, and then every Monday I sing his praises. He did it again yesterday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 2 ER, and a 7/2 K/BB vs. COL. The fastball sat 96.3 MPH and dominated with a 30% whiff% and 85.8 MPH EV against. The splitter, curveball, and slider all racked up whiffs too, leading to a 37% whiff% on the day. He now has a 3.09 xERA (3.95 ERA) with a 26.8%/4.2% K%/BB% in 70.2 IP. I officially rang the Major Target bell back on July 22nd’s Monday Rundown, writing, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA.” He just keeps rising and needs to be valued as around a Top 100 overall dynasty asset.

Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 31.11 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 8/0 K/BB against the tough Orioles lineup. That looks like vintage Springs right there, and it only took his 3rd start back from Tommy John surgery to see it. The fastball only sat 90.3 MPH, which is about a tick+ down from pre surgery, but it got the job done with a 26% whiff% and 38% CSW%. It was the changeup that really dominated though with a 67% whiff%, leading to a 42% whiff% on the day. Missing bats and throwing the ball over the plate is what he does. I wouldn’t say he looks in prime form, but this is a very encouraging outing to say he is headed in the right direction. I was all about taking the Tommy John discount on him, and while he might not take off this season, I can see 2025 being a big year for him after a full normal off-season to truly round back into form.

DL Hall MIL, LHP, 25.11 – I’ve never seen a pitcher who can just so easily gain like 2+ MPH of velocity after one trip on the IL. Hall was sitting low 90’s early in the year in 2023 in the minors, went on the IL, and then came back throwing mid 90’s. And now he’s done the exact same thing this year, throwing low 90’s early in the season, hitting the IL with a knee injury, and now returning at 94.6 MPH last night. Is he just chillin during the off-season? Hunting, fishing, Bud Light .. and then he gets to camp and goes, oh shit? He went 4.2 IP with 5 hits, 3 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. CIN. Along with the fastball, the velocity was way up on all of his pitches, and it allowed him to re-find his bat missing ability with a 31% whiff%. He obviously still didn’t pitch well, and he didn’t pitch well at Triple-A either with the newfound velocity, so I’m far from jumping back in. But at least it makes him interesting again. Keep an eye out.

Zyhir Hope LAD, OF, 19.7 – Hope got hit with the dreaded out of sight, out of mind hype dry up when he was out with a shoulder injury, but he’s been back at Single-A for a couple weeks, and he’s firmly back in sight and back in mind. He went 2 for 3 with a double and a homer last night. He’s right back to raking since returning from the injury, slashing .362/.516/.596 with 3 homers, 1 steal, and a 21%/17.7% K%/BB% in 13 games. I held strong on his ranking throughout the injuries, checking in at #92 on the Updated Top 427 Prospect Rankings, and he might now be sneaking into Top 75 range again.

Jhonny Severino PIT, SS, 19.9 – Severino just snuck on those Updated Rankings at #320, writing, “Big upside bat with big power, but he’s done most of his damage this year in rookie ball as a 19 year old … I just don’t love shopping in the 19 year old rookie ball breakout aisle.” But he’s not in rookie ball anymore, and he keeps on crushing it, going the opposite way for his first homer in 9 games at Single-A. He now has a 147 wRC+ with a 24.4%/9.8% K%/BB% at the level. The longer he keeps it up at Single-A, the faster his hype train will pick up speed.

Tai Peete SEA, SS/3B, 19.0 – Peete isn’t having the best season at Single-A with a 92 wRC+ in 94 games, but keep in mind that he was an 18 year old for almost the entire season. He turned 19 yesterday, and he celebrated his birthday in style, going 1 for 3 with a homer and a steal. So he may have been mediocre as an 18 year old at the level, but as a 19 year old, he has a 1.833 OPS. His game power has been coming on strong for a little while now with 6 homers in his last 33 games. This is still a super toolsy, super exciting prospect even if the full explosion hasn’t happened this year.

Robert Calaz COL, OF, 18.9 – Speaking of 18 year old’s at Single-A, Calaz has had no issues since being called up, absolutely obliterating a 455 foot, 109 MPH blast out of the ballpark for his first homer at the level. He finished the day 2 for 3 with a homer and a steal. He now has a 148 wRC+ with a 25%/10% K%/BB% in 10 games. He is on the fast track to be an elite power hitting prospect by this time next year. He entered the Top 100 Prospects at #97, and that number will keep rising.

Welbyn Francisca CLE, SS, 18.3 – Francisca doesn’t have the raw power of Calaz, but it didn’t stop him from also jacking out his first homer in 9 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. He had himself a day, going 3 for 4 with a double, homer and walk. He now has a 196 wRC+ in 9 games, and he is showing more than enough power this year (7 homers in 54 games) to let his hit/plate approach/speed profile shine. He checked in at #116 on the Updated Rankings.

Dillon Dingler DET, C, 25.11 – It’s a Dinger for Dingler, and it’s his first MLB homer, smashing a 107.9 MPH, 406 bomb off Hayden Birdsong. He also tacked on a 104.3 MPH double. It’s his first good game in the majors with a .727 OPS in 7 games, but the underlying numbers look standout right now with a 11.8% Barrel%, 92.7 MPH EV, 14.8 degree launch, .438 xwOBA, and 26.9% K%. The hit tool is definitely still a risk with a shaky at best hit tool throughout his career, but the power looks so sincere.

Kristian Campbell BOS, 2B/OF, 22.2 – Campbell might be THE 2024 breakout, and he’s only picking up steam after homering in his 3rd straight game at Double-A. He’s now slashing .380/.484/.592 with 7 homers, 17 steals, and a 14.8%/14.3% K%/BB% in 49 games. That is good for a 203 wRC+, and that is not a small sample. My goodness gracious. I’ve never said my goodness gracious in my life, but I feel like this is the right time to whip that one out. He might be a Top 10 prospect by the end of the season if he isn’t there already.

Agustin Ramirez MIA, C, 22.11 – Ramirez is starting to get comfortable in his new digs, and he’s starting to get comfortable at Triple-A too after going deep for his 2nd homer in 10 games since the trade, to go along with a 165 wRC+ and 10.5%/13.6% K%/BB%. He’s now on a beeline for Miami’s starting catcher job with plus power and a solid plate approach.

Quinn Mathews STL, LHP, 23.10 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6/2 K/BB at Double-A. That is Mathews third gem in a row at Double-A, and he’s now dominating the level with a 3.11 ERA and 29.9%/8.9% K%/BB% in 37.2 IP. The stuff backs up the results with a mid 90’s fastball and 2 plus secondaries in his slider and change. He’s got the size too at 6’5”. He creeping up into near elite pitching prospect range at this point.

Ben Casparius LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Casparius had his best outing since getting the call to Triple-A, going 6 IP with 5 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95 MPH, the slider notched a 42% whiff, and the cutter notched a 60% whiff%. He now has a 3.54 ERA with a 25.7%/12.2% K%/BB% in 56 IP. The lack of control and the insanely deep rotation in LA (including all of the injured guys) makes me think Casparius ends up in the bullpen, but he certainly has the stuff and proximity to keep an eye on.

Carter Johnson MIA, SS, 18.5 – Hit tool first high school prospects aren’t my favorite to go after, and neither are hitting prospects drafted by the Marlins. Johnson got the double up on that one, and he’s struggling in pro ball. He went 0 for 5 with 4 K’s yesterday and now has 0 homers, 0 steals, a 86 wRC+ and 33.3% K% in 7 games at Single-A. To be fair, in previous years, he would have been assigned to stateside rookie ball first, where he would have the opportunity to hit like .400 for 9 games before getting the call to Single-A. But with the rookie ball season ending earlier now, these high school bats don’t have that luxury. Just look at the college bats struggling to adjust to pro ball in the lower minors. You have to give high school bats even more leeway there.

Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.11 – 0 for 4 with 3 K’s. He now has a 40 wRC+ in 36 games. I think I speak for all Noelvi owners, get back on that juice. It’s worth the risk 😉 (one silver lining to leave you with, his EV is back up to 89 MPH in his last 24 games, so better days are ahead)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS (8/9/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on August 6, 2024August 9, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 327 August 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

The trade deadline has passed. The 2024 MLB Draft is in the books. And that means it’s time to update the Top 300+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 23 free here on the Brick Wall. Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for this list. So if you’re in the minors and have under 130 AB or 50 IP, you are eligible. As usual, I go over 300 deep with blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 327 August 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-AUGUST TOP 327 PROSPECTS RANKS
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis

**Any player currently in the majors is ineligible

1) (2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.6 – Alex Verdugo has a 87 wRC+ and isn’t a particularly good defensive player. It’s getting mighty close to that time for The Martian to invade New York again, and we saw what happened the last time he invaded New York with 4 bombs in just 8 games. His combination of upside and proximity is hard to match. He deserves the #1 spot on these rankings with all of prospects in the major leagues being ineligible for this list.

2) (5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 21.1 – Caminero is a close 2nd to Dominguez in terms of upside and proximity. But he doesn’t steal bases (1 steal in 48 games), and it sure feels like Tampa is ready to manipulate the hell out of his service time

3) (12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.3 – The game power and stolen base speed have arrived at Double-A with 10 homers and 10 steals in his last 38 games. There is still some low launch (46.1% GB%) and high K (25.9% K%) in his game, but that feels like nitpicking for a barely 20 year old kid with a 134 wRC+ in the upper minors.

4) (8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.9 – Earned a callup to Triple-A by obliterating Double-A over his last 46 games, slashing .333/.400/.582 with 11 homers, 15 steals, and a 13.6%/9.7% K%/BB%. The Paredes trade complicated his path to playing time, but I’m trusting it to get sorted one way or another by 2025. Shaw still feels underrated to me

5) (9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.5 – A thumb injury from sliding into 2nd base put an abrupt halt to Rodriguez’ massive season at Double-A (201 wRC+ in 37 games). Even my 9 year old nephew uses one of those huge sliding mitts when on the bases (it’s kinda hilarious). Come on EmRod. It doesn’t change how much I love him with a monster OBP/power/speed combo, but it’s definitely annoying

6) (15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.1 – The hit tool concerns aren’t completely out of the woods with a 27% K% and .255 BA, but the age to level, power (14 homers), speed (28 steals), and glove more than make up for that. Plus, the K rate is actually improved from what he did in the lower minors. The Rays starting SS job is waiting for him

7) (FYPD-1) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.4 – Ranked 1st overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “I was all set to have Bazzana #1 on my FYPD Board, but with Condon going to Coors with the 3rd overall pick in the draft, it rattled my whole game plan. How can you pass up on a massive human being, with massive numbers, in the best conference in college baseball, going to the best ballpark in the majors, which just so happens to juice up the only slight quibble in his profile? The answer is, you can’t. Or at least I can’t. Condon has to be the top dog now. He’s 6’6”, 215 pounds and he swings the bat like it’s a literal twig. He ripped 37 homers in 60 games in the SEC this year and has 62 homers in 116 career games in the SEC. The power is near elite (I say near elite, because Jac has more power). He improved both his contact rates and plate approach this year with a 13.5%/18.8% K%/BB%, and like I alluded to, Coors Field juices up batting average the most. Coors is actually slightly below average for homers in 2024, but with 6’6” baseball players, it’s always the BA you have to watch out for, so this landing spot is perfect. He’s not going to steal many bases, but he’s a good athlete, and he should be able to nab a handful. If your team really needs the stolen bases, I can maybe see going Bazzana one, but all things being equal, there is just too much offense upside in that hitting environment to pass up on Condon in the top spot. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 99/34/107/.276/.357/.529/6″

8) (FYPD-2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 21.11 – Ranked 2nd overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 1st overall, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. Either way, he survived, and if you want to give Bazzana the edge over Condon because of steals, I wouldn’t blame you. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 100/25/91/.287/.366/.481/23″

9) (14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.0 – He’s yet to throw more than 4 IP in any outing of his career and he only has 65.2 IP on the season. Workload is the only thing to nitpick here, because everything else is straight elite with a 1.64 ERA and 29.6%/6.6% K%/BB% in 38.1 IP at Double-A. Schultz was my top pitcher target in his FYPD class, and he’s arrived

10) (10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.4 – Just when we were ready to put the rough 2023 Double-A debut behind us, he went out and looked mighty mediocre when he got the call to Triple-A with a 87 wRC+ in 34 games. But the individual components look better with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB%, 4 homers, and 5 steals. He’s looking more like an above average across the board contributor rather than a true star right now though

11) (11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.11 – You couldn’t pry Basallo away from Baltimore’s cold dead hands at the deadline, and for good reason, as he’s still 19 years old with 15 homers, a 127 wRC+ and 20.9%/8.9% K%/BB% in 88 games at Double-A. At 6’4”, he has future beast written all over him

12) (72) (58) (88) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 17.9 – The explosion is on, slashing .274/.397/.573 with 9 homers, 6 steals, and 22%/14.9% K%/BB% in his last 29 games. He now has a well above average 110 wRC+ in 64 games at Single-A. He’s my favorite to be the #1 prospect in the game by this time next year

13) (23) (8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.5 – Showed an elite plate approach at Single-A (11.3%/18.5% K%/BB% in 33 games), which is exciting because we know the big power is in there at 6’3”, 210 pounds. He hasn’t been as good since getting the call to High-A with a 61 wRC+ and 18.2%/9.2% K%/BB%, but obviously it’s too small of a sample to say anything

14) (7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.1 – Lawlar tore is shoulder swinging a bat. He broke his thumb fielding a grounder. And he suffered a major hamstring strain presumably when running. Swinging a bat, fielding grounders, and running is basically the job, and getting majorly injured so often while doing these routine things makes it appropriate to slap the dreaded “injury prone” label on him. I still love him, but the injuries are piling up

15) (13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.0 – The elite control from 2023 has vanished with a 14.5% BB% in 42.1 IP at Double-A. He went from Maddux to Misiorowski. But he’s still dominating with a 1.91 ERA and 30.6% K%, and I don’t believe that walk rate is his true talent. Not budging on him

16) (FYPD-3) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B/LHP, 21.6 – Ranked 3rd overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 6th overall, Caglionone is a giant human being at 6’5”, 250 pounds. Condon may have an extra inch on him, but he can’t even come close to Caglinone’s sheer mass. And it’s not Dan Vogelbach mass, it’s elite NFL TE type mass and athleticism. This is what truly elite power looks like, and he has no trouble getting to that power with 75 homers in 165 career games in the SEC. He also pitches with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s to give you an idea of the type of athlete we are talking about, even if his future is almost certainly with the bat. The plate approach and hit tool were questions coming into the year, but he massively improved in those areas this year with a 8.2%/18.4% K%/BB% (18.2%/5.3% in 2023). The biggest knock on his profile is the very high chase rate, making him riskier than the other top bats in his class, but let me make a counter argument to that for a second. One, basically every hitter with an extremely high walk rate and low chase got criticized for not swinging enough, namely Kurtz. Jac is getting criticized for swinging too much. You can’t win. Two, if I was a pitcher, I wouldn’t want to give this guy anything to hit either. Sure, he chased, but not to his detriment. He did a ton of damage (.419 BA with a 1.419 OPS) and made a ton of contact. Three, there is something to be said about Jac proving he can hit very tough pitches that are out of the zone. It goes without saying that pro pitching and MLB pitching is much, much, much tougher than college pitching. You are going to have to hit tough pitches. You can’t always wait for a perfect pitch. Jac has proven he can do that. Maybe that’s just the lawyer in me to feel the pull to argue for a clear negative, ha, but it sounded good, right? I feel like there’s something to it, and on pure upside, Jac very well might be the top guy in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 94/37/109/.261/.342/.524/8″

17) (FYPD-4) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 21.11 – Ranked 4th overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 7th overall, Wetherholt slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz. Maybe it was the injuries, missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. It could also be that he is on the small side at 5’10”, and doesn’t have quite the raw power of the other top college hitters in the draft. Don’t get me wrong, he definitely has plenty of power, but about a 16 homer pace is not that impressive when everyone else is hitting 30. Or maybe it’s that he didn’t face the toughest competition in the Big 12. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. He also rocks the little man leg kick which I love, ensuring he will get the most out of his very good raw power. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 97/21/82/.290/.357/.462/26″

18) (19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.8 – Called up to Double-A and went lefty on lefty for his first homer at the level in his 3rd game. The power is no joke, but the hit tool has some risk with a 30% K% at High-A and 42.9% K% in 3 games at Double-A

19) (18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – 140 wRC+ in 77 games at Double-A, but how big the power/speed combo will end up is still a question. He has only 8 homers with a 47.4% GB%, and he’s not a burner despite a solid 13 steals. He might end up more solid than standout in the majors, but at only 21, there is plenty of development time left to go.

20) (22) (55) (83) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.2 – Everything is translating to High-A except for the BABIP (.236). De Vries, Jenkins, De Paula and my next guy, Walcott, is going to be a super fun 1, 2. 3, 4 one day atop the prospects rankings

21) (33) (30) (33) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 18.6 – Destroying High-A for awhile now, slashing .301/.356/.534 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 24.7%/7.7% in his last 45 games. That’s insanely impressive for an 18 year old, and the tools are elite at 6’4”

22) (27) (17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.2 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024. He has the type of elite upside to take the Tommy John discount on, but I do think you have to factor some risk in

23) (FYPD-5) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 21.7 – Ranked 5th overall on the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings (Patreon), writing, “Selected 2nd overall, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/245 in 190 IP”

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 29, 2024July 31, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning, er, Afternoon, Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24)

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Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – And away we go. The 2024 MLB Draft pro debuts have officially kicked off. This is where excitement and hype can go to die with a rough go of it (Jacob Berry and Chase Davis say hi), or absolutely balloon to elite levels with utter dominance (Wyatt Langford). It’s exciting and scary all at the same time. Lots can change between now and the end of the season, and with how tight it is with the top talent of the draft, a shake up can definitely happen. Bazzana is up first, making his debut at High-A, and he’s already getting his first taste of reality with a 57.1%/0.0% K%/BB% in 2 games. He had two games all season in college where he struck out multiple times and didn’t walk once, and now he’s done that in his first two games of pro ball. It’s sooooooooo early, so obviously don’t even give it a second thought right now, but those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.

Jazz Chisholm NYY, OF, 26.6 – Hello short porch. You couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot for Jazz. His Statcast expected homer total for this year at Yankee Stadium is 19. He has 13 on the year and his expected total at Miami is 14. I know he isn’t a lift and pull maniac, but this move is a major upgrade for fantasy without even taking into account the much better lineup. He already stole a bag in his first game with the team, giving him 23 steals in 102 games. His plate approach is much improved this year with a career best 24.8%/9.0% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a 10.6% Barrel%. And now he enters the perfect ballpark to maximize his game power. Jazz owners have to be over the moon right now.

Isaac Paredes CHC, 1B/3B, 25.5 – … and Paredes owners have to be whatever the opposite of over the moon is. Under the sun? His weak EV, lift and pull profile was tailored made for Tampa, but now he’s headed to a below average ballpark for righty homers. He has a Statcast expected 11 homers this year with Chicago. It almost feels too easy to say that his numbers are going to drop off immediately. He’s 0 for 8 in his career at Wrigley (obviously silly small sample). He has a .752 OPS away from the Trop this year (.830 at the Trop). I’m not sure how this could be seen as anything but a major downgrade.

Christopher Morel TBR, OF/3B, 25.2 – Just watch Morel immediately start to play to his underlying numbers with Tampa. It’s not hard to see what Tampa saw with a .346 xwOBA vs. .298 wOBA. He hits the ball hard enough where he isn’t completely ballpark dependent, but this is still a ballpark upgrade for him, and I don’t think Tampa would have made this deal if they didn’t intend on playing him nearly everyday. I feel much more comfortable about Morel’s long term playing time in Tampa than I did with Chicago. This is an upgrade for Morel.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.9 The biggest loser of this trade seems to be Shaw. His path to playing time just got a whole lot murkier, and it seems to indicate Chicago is planning on taking it nice and slow with his development. He’ll have to settle for hitting lasers in the upper minors like he did last night for his 13th homer in 80 games at Double-A. I have no idea where he fits in now, or where their 2024 first rounder, 3B Cam Smith, fits in either. Depth is great for real life, but a pain in the ass for fantasy.

Dylan Lesko TBR, RHP, 20.11 – I can’t decide if Tampa fleeced San Diego in the Jason Adam for Dylan Lesko deal, or if everyone is still falling in love with the idea of Dylan Lesko rather than the reality of him. He has a 6.46 ERA with a 25%/16.5% K%/BB% in 69.2 IP at High-A. That is quite bad. But the stuff is still really good with three potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, nasty breaking ball, and his famously filthy changeup. This was still just his first full season coming off Tommy John, and also his first full healthy season in pro ball. It’s completely reasonable to expect growing pains, and if anyone can develop Lesko, it’s Tampa. This feels like breathing new life into Lesko’s dynasty value which was quickly evaporating.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – In last weeks’ Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.” … but after Saturday’s outing, that buy window is most likely slammed shut, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. The slider dominated as his most used pitch with a 33% usage and 67% whiff%. And again he used a legit 6 pitch mix. He deserves to be talked about with some of the best young breakouts in the game with a 3.26 xERA (4.06 ERA) and 25.5%/4.3% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.10 – I’ve been pounding the buy drum on Cruz for years now, through injuries, strikeout problems, the slow start to this year … all of it. And it’s starting to pay off now. He cracked a 109.2 MPH homer yesterday for his 17th of the season, and he’s now slashing .320/.381/.667 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 27/7 K/BB in his last 20 games. A 95.2 MPH EV is just absurd, and it’s the 3rd best mark in baseball behind only Judge and Ohtani. His 28.7 ft/sec sprint is in the top 13% of the league. And his 31.9% K% isn’t too horrible. We can work with that when you have this level of truly elite talent. He didn’t budge on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon) at #40 overall, and we might be looking at a Top 20 ish dynasty asset by the end of the season if he can keep up this hot streak.

Xavier Edwards MIA, 2B/OF, 25.0 – Edwards “jacked” his first homer of the year at a lowly 96.3 MPH, but it was enough to clear the fence, and it was also enough to hit for the cycle on a 4 for 4 day … plus a walk. I feel like there should be a name for hitting for the cycle and also getting a walk. Hitting for The Unicycle? Hitting for The Cycle with a Sidecar? Ha, I like Cycle with a Sidecar. That works. Either way, Edwards has been excellent this season, slashing .379/.462/.494 with 1 homer, 8 steals, and a 15.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 25 games. His 88.2 MPH EV is mighty impressive considering it sat at 82.2 MPH in 2023, although a 2.7% Barrel% is probably a better representation of how hard he can actually hit the ball. The plate approach is elite and he’s an excellent base stealer. It’s a Steven Kwan/Nico Hoerner-esque profile which we have obviously seen work in the majors. I wouldn’t buy in too hard, but he’s establishing himself as an interesting contact/speed player.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.8 – The Dodgers showed the patience of a saint with Lux, and it’s been paying off of late. He went 1 for 2 with 3 walks and a 98.1 MPH homer off Spencer Arrighetti. He’s now slashing .425/.500/.825 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 11/5 K/BB in his last 46 PA. The 88 MPH EV and 6.9% Barrel% over that time period still isn’t exactly knocking my socks off, so I’m still struggling to get too excited. I’m not seeing a monster explosion coming here. It seems like he’s rounding back into his really boring fantasy player form that he showed before going down with the knee injury.

Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B/OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 109.6 MPH homer off Kolby Allard. I remember when Kolby Allard was a hyped high school prospect, but now he is just bottom of the roster fodder for guys like Noel to juice up their stats on. He has a career 6.11 ERA in 249 IP to go along wi … oh wait, this blurb is about Noel. My prospect nostalgia/where are they now got the best of me for a second there. As for Noel, he is exactly as advertised with 6 homers, a 91.1 MPH EV, and 35.4%/4.6% K%/BB% in 65 MLB PA. The 31.2% whiff% is better than the K rate, which is encouraging, and so is the .363 xwOBA. He’s also sneaky athletic with an above average 27.8 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not going to steal bases, it’s still nice to see. Noel’s value continues to rise, and I would value him as a Top 300-ish dynasty asset right now.

Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 25.11 – It’s hard to call the Toglia breakout anything but legit at this point (and it looks mighty similar to what Noel is doing) with him launching a 105.2 MPH homer for his 18th in 61 games. The 92.5 MPH EV and 17.5% Barrel% very clearly backs up the explosion, and a 32.3% K% is workable when you are hitting the ball that hard (and when you play at Coors). He’s a good athlete too with an above average 27.6 ft/sec sprint. The BA is obviously still a major risk, and it sits at .215 right now, so I’m certainly not going too crazy, but this does look like a legit leveling up for Toglia.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. COL. Well, at least we can be certain that Birdsong can beat the Rockies, throwing back to back dominant outings vs them. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while all three secondaries (slider, change, curve) racked up whiffs for a 39% whiff% overall. His 4 starts vs non Rockies teams were not as smooth, so it would be nice to see him do this against a better lineup before crowning him, but it’s still an exciting start to Birdsong’s career. He now has a 2.97 ERA with a 30.2%/11.9% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. His 34.8% whiff% is elite.

River Ryan LAD, RHP, 26.0 – 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. HOU. The fastball sat 96.1 MPH with a respectable 22% whiff%. The breaking balls missed a ton of bats, leading to a 33% whiff% overall, and the sinker dominated with a 78.8 MPH EV against and 29% whiff%. He’s looked electric since returning from missing most of the season with shoulder fatigue, and while he was solid in his first MLB outing, he took it to another level in this one, showing off the bat missing ability. He already rose to #356 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon) before he had even made his MLB debut, and now I think he’s easily within the Top 300.

DJ Herz WAS, LHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hit, 2 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. STL. The 93.8 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% and it’s been a great pitch all season with a 35.1% whiff% and .251 xwOBA. His 6.6% BB% in 41.1 IP is extremely impressive considering how badly he struggled with his control in the minors. The 4.79 ERA doesn’t look great, but the 3.31 xERA looks much better. Herz was a former favorite of mine, and while I hesitate to think he can truly keep up this level of control, we know that pitcher development isn’t linear. He’s still just 23 year old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was taking a real step forward. While I wouldn’t give up very much for him right now, he’s definitely worth a shot in all league sizes, and if you can get him on the cheap or as a throw in as part of a bigger deadline deal, that would be perfect. There is definitely something here.

Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.4 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at rookie ball in the ACL championship series. It’s been an up and down first year of pro ball for Jang, but this is the type of dominance he is capable of when his control is on. He’s an absolute strikeout machine with 57 K’s in just 27.1 IP on the season, and the stuff is no joke with him getting up to 99 MPH. He is obviously still a bit of a project with a 8.14 ERA and 16.1% BB% in 24.1 IP during the regular season, but I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his talent. The breakout didn’t come this year, but I still like him a ton, and I think it’s coming down the line.

Connor Norby BAL, 2B/OF, 24.2 – 0 for 3 with 3 K’s and is now 0 for his last 10 … this is not how you entice Detroit or Chicago to want you in a trade for Skubal or Crochet.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on July 22, 2024July 27, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24)

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Max Clark DET, OF, 19.7 – The stupendous 2023 MLB Draft class is casting such a long shadow that all anyone can talk about is how crappy the 2024 Draft class is in comparison, and while I would argue they are being too harsh, especially for fantasy, (check out the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings that just dropped on Patreon last week), the 2023 class is out here teaching the 2024 class how it’s done in pro ball. Clark just homered his way into a promotion to High-A, going 3 for 4 with a laser shot into the License to Chill Lounge. He tacked on a double and stolen base in his final game at Single-A. He earned that promotion with 7 homers, 26 steals, a 133 wRC+, and 17.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 73 games. That is fully living up to his hype, and the final step to superstardom will be naturally gaining strength and raising his launch (48.6% GB%), although he has the type of profile that can thrive with a low launch. He isn’t even one of the truly most hyped names in the class …

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.5 – Speaking of one of the most hyped names in the class, arguably too hyped, Crews is out here working to put some shine back on his name, utterly destroying a 409 foot, 103.3 MPH bomb for his 4th in 23 games at the level. The 97 wRC+ might not be super impressive, but 4 homers with 5 steals, a 16.8%/9.7% K%/BB% and 89.2 MPH EV looks pretty damn good to me. With all the hand wringing over Crews and ball washing over Langford, it would be pretty funny if Crews took MLB by storm when he got his chance and passed Langford again. Langford has been coming on of late, but his season line is still quite beatable.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.5 – The mega hyped Jenkins had a hammy delay his full take off, but he’s been healthy and in a groove for a little while now, going 2 for 4 with 2 walks and a steal yesterday. He now has a 140 wRC+ on the back of a 12.5%/19.5% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s great to see how advanced of a hitter he is, but we have enough elite plate approach weaklings to go around, we need him to start doing some real damage. Only 2 homers with a 87.3 MPH EV is lackluster. We know he has the raw power in the tank at 6’3”, 210 pounds, so I don’t doubt it’s coming, but it would be nice to see some more of it.

Brice Matthews HOU, SS, 22.4 – Matthews didn’t get the hype of the aforementioned names, unless you read my work this off-season which named Matthews as one of my favorite FYPD targets, and he’s more than delivered. He went 2 for 4 with 2 steals and an absolute NUC out to deep centerfield that hit off the cotton press. Why they have a cotton press in centerfield is anyone’s guess, but the announcer was hyped that he hit it. He’s homered in back to back games at Double-A, and now has 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 125 wRC+ in 25 games at the level. The 34.1% K% is definitely too high and adds a healthy does of risk, but he’s proving his upside is no joke, and you have to be happy with this performance compared to his very reasonable FYPD price.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.9 – Nimmala was down on the mat to start the year, simply not looking ready for pro ball, but that was understandable considering how young he was for the class, and now that he’s found a groove, it’s been a homer fest. He drilled his 3rd homer in 6 games at Single-A, and since getting recalled to the level, he’s put up a 1.042 OPS with 4 homers in 16 games. The 32.8% K% over that time period still shows the rawness in his game, but a 110 wRC+ in 45 games on the season is quite impressive for a legit 18 year old. The power is very real, and with more refinement, a true explosion could be coming in 2025.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – The only thing thinner than Colorado’s air is their lineup, and Birdsong came into Coors and sliced his way through both the air and the lineup, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 2 ER, and a 12/2 K/BB. The breaking pitches were working just fine in that air with a 63% whiff% on the curve and 59% whiff% on the slider. The non breaking pitches were working just fine too with a 57% whiff% on the 95.8 MPH fastball and 50% whiff% on the changeup. He dominated in every facet of the game, and his MLB debut is looking pretty good now with a 3.55 ERA and 28.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP. His 33.7% whiff% is in the elite range. Birdsong has been underrated for a while now, but a start like this will start to turn people’s head. The below average control certainly adds risk, but he has the type of stuff and swing and miss to overcome that. I’ve been relatively high on Birdsong for over a year now, and I love what I see with his MLB debut. I’m still buying.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He had another impressive outing yesterday, going 6 IP with 7 hits, 4 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 95.7 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%. The splitter was devastating with a 64% whiff%. And he used a 6 pitch mix to notch a 34% whiff% overall. He got hit hard in this one with a 93.3 MPH EV, but he hasn’t been hit hard this season with a 4.7% Barrel% against. He just rose to #212 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), finishing his blurb by writing, “He looks damn good. I would buy off the high ERA if you can.” He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. #212 might not even be high enough, he might be worthy of knocking on the door of the Top 100 area right now. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.

Drew Thorpe CHW, RHP, 23.10 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. KC. The filthy changeup is just impossible to pick up with a 43% whiff%. It really acts more like knuckleball. It can really end up anywhere with multiple different movement profiles. It’s pretty wild and it’s befuddled MLB hitters with a .246 xwOBA and 38.8% whiff% on the season. It’s led to a 3.03 ERA with a 15.4%/10.9% K%/BB% and 86 MPH EV against in 38.2 IP. There is little doubt at this point the changeup will play against the best hitters in the world. It wasn’t only the changeup in this game though, the slider also dominated with a 64% whiff%, and that pitch has also been good with a .293 xwOBA (.176 wOBA) and 30% whiff%. I struggle to fully buy in with such a mediocre K/BB rate, but this is essentially a knuckleballer+ profile, and knuckleballer’s can definitely get the job done without great K/BB rates. I’m buying in more and more, but I still see limited upside in the long run.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 25.9 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. He did what he does best which is double plus control of a good fastball, to go along with two good secondaries in his sweeper and changeup. I named him a major target in my Top 11 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and since then he has a 0.77 ERA with a 25/3 K/BB in 23.1 IP. Not bad. I hope you bought when the price was reasonable.

James Wood WAS, OF, 21.10 – Wood cooled off a bit from his blazing start in the majors, but he was back at it yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a 105.9 MPH homer off lefty Justin Wilson. That wasn’t even his hardest hit ball of the day, it was his 3rd hardest hit ball with a 109 MPH lineout and 107.2 MPH single off lefty Andrew Abbott. He now has a 12.2% Barrel% and 93.5 MPH EV in 17 games. The 33.3% K% and negative 7.6 degree launch is definitely showing off some rawness, and he’s not a finished product, but nothing is dissuading me from thinking Wood is a future superstar. He crushes the ball too hard, and he’s shown in the minors he can improve his hit tool. The explosion might not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.4 – I’m not going to say Chourio has fully arrived, because there is another level in here he hasn’t even started to scratch yet, but he’s certainly getting closer after going 2 for 4 with a 108.6 MPH double off Joe Ryan and 107.7 MPH, 443 foot homer off Jorge Alcala. He’s now slashing .314/.368/.512 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in his last 36 games. Everything in his underlying numbers is setting a super strong foundation for him to build on in future years. He’s right on track, just give him another year or so.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.9 – It’s not just the 2023 Draft class that was impressive, the international class was special too, and De Vries has been exploding into elite prospect status right before our eyes. He cracked his 7th homer in 54 games at Single-A with that beautiful and powerful swing that straight up looks MLB ready. He now has a .976 OPS with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 20/13 K/BB in his last 19 games. He ranked 199th overall on those Updated Dynasty Rankings, and that number will just keep climbing.

Zebby Matthews MIN, RHP, 24.2 – Matthews got the call to Triple-A, and he unsurprisingly had no issues in his first start at the level, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH with a respectable 20% whiff%, the cutter induced weak contact with a 86.8 MPH EV, and the breaking balls missed bats with a 67% whiff% on the curve and 33% whiff% on the slider. I’ve been all over Matthews all season, putting him in the Top 50 on the latest Top 305 Prospects Rankings (new update coming soon on Patreon). He’s walked 6 guys all season in 83 IP, which is dumb. He combines the truly elite control with big velocity, over 30% K rates at each level, and a diverse pitch mix. He’s an elite pitching prospect.

Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 23.7 – Barco made his first outing at a new level as well, making the big jump to the upper minors at Double-A, and he delivered, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. I love me a funky lefty, and while Barco’s stuff isn’t huge, he proved it will play just fine in the upper minors. Before Double-A he put up some big numbers at High-A with a 3.34 ERA and 30.4%/8.7% K%/BB% in 62 IP. Pitt has yet another really really good arm in the stable. I would value Barco as at least a Top 200 prospect, and he might be sneaking into the Top 150 area now.

Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 20.4 – Susuna has the Hunter Greene starter pack with an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, and while that pack has been sitting in the plastic for awhile, he’s been starting to put it together of late. He made his 2nd outing at High-A and looked good, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. That walk rate is the most important thing to watch, and he now has a 29.3%/7.3% K%/BB% in 10 IP at the level. Over his last 40 IP at Single-A and High-A, he’s put up a 1.58 ERA and 40.1%/9.2% K%/BB%. That is exactly the type of breakout we have been waiting for. There is still control/bullpen risk, but I don’t see how this type of talent isn’t a Top 100 prospect with what he’s been doing of late. He needs to be owned in every league.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 24.1 – Malloy went 1 for 3 with a walk and walloped a 104 MPH homer off Kevin Gausman for his 6th in 35 games. He’s been extra hot of late with a 1.060 OPS, 4 homers, and a 13/7 K/BB in his last 14 games. He’s showing the power will play in the majors with a 11.1% Barrel%, but I don’t quite trust that the BA will be good enough to sustain a full time job long term. The 20.2 degree launch is extreme and so is the 35.5% whiff%. The .187 xBA is scary. It’s hard not to say that the MLB debut has been a success, but I would still have some caution before buying too high here.

Lawrence Butler OAK, OF, 24.0 – The underlying numbers were screaming that a breakout was coming Butler’s first time around in the majors, and after a reset at Triple-A, the breakout is here. He’s been a hit machine since returning to the majors, going 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks yesterday, and is now slashing .385/.439/.885 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 13/5 K/BB in his last 15 games. He has a 92.2 MPH EV, 11.7% Barrel%, and a .340 xwOBA. The 28.5%/9.7% K%/BB% ain’t that bad. I’ve loved Butler for awhile now, and stayed patient through his surface stats struggles. It’s paying off in a big way now. I’m buying.

Michael King SDP, RHP, 29.2 – King’s slow start to the season dug a deep hole for his hype that he’s been trying to climb out of all season, but I think it’s high time to acknowledge that the dominant run he went on to close the 2023 season was no fluke. Dude has been performing like a true ace for almost 3 months now. He once again put on a dominant performance vs. CLE, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He led with the changeup up in this one with a 41% usage, and it was unhittable with a 55% whiff% and 70.4 MPH EV against. The 4 seamer and sweeper were spotless as well with a 36% whiff% and 60% whiff%, respectively. It led to a 75.8% MPH EV against and 45% whiff% on the day. the jumped to 130th overall on those Updated Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and I don’t think a placement inside the Top 100 is unwarranted at this point. He’s starting to cement near ace status.

Drue Hackenburg ATL, RHP, 22.4 – I’ve been talking a lot of shit about the Hackenburg family lately after what Christian Hackenburg did to me as a Jets and Nittany Lions fan, but Drue went out and put some respect back on his family name yesterday, going 7 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB at Double-A. I mean, wow, what a performance. Here are the highlights of the dominance. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 35.9%/12% K%/BB% in 21 IP at the level. It’s still not good enough to convince me to go after him though. For me, it’s personal, it’s not business 😉

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 25.0 – 3.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. NYY. The slider didn’t induce a single whiff and he put up a lowly 12% whiff% on the day. He now has a 6.78 xERA with a 19%/11.1% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP. Clearly, something isn’t right. This is why you have to factor in some added risk for pitchers coming off Tommy John. And it’s often their 2nd year back that they return to form, rather than their first year back. This isn’t going to be a smooth ride back to full health, and I think it’s fair to start worrying, but in the long run, I would try to stay patient.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)