The real Opening Day is this week, and that means it’s time to start releasing some of my rankings on the Brick Wall. The Top 132 2024 First Year Player Draft Rankings dropped on Monday, the Top 581 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropped on Thursday, and we conclude today with the 2024 Top 1,145 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, which has been on the Patreon since February 7th. Without further ado, here is the Top 1,145 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES ALL SEASON
-2024 FYPD Target & Strategy Guide
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 55 PROSPECTS RANKINGS FOR 2024 ONLY
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61
2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47
3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52
4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38
5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18 Update: This ranking assumes he doesn’t get Pete Rose’d
6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31
7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13
8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28
9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65
10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1
11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19
12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9
13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14
Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18
14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13
15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26
16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27
17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35
18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract, and it ensures him a spot on the opening day roster as well. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41
19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 68/14/59/.270/.339/.441/17 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28
20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings (especially with him ripping up spring), I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/16 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24
21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP
22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6
23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5
24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3
25) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18
26) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26
27) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1
28) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15
29) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore, but the only snafu is that he underwent hernia surgery in late January, which puts the start of his season in question. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but he’s about to enter his 30’s, and injuries like this can start to take their toll. 2024 Projection: 89/32/98/.291/.369/.538/2
30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4
31) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15
32) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.1 – Bichette’s speed and launch angle are both headed in the wrong direction. He’s putting up old man sprint speeds at just 25 years old with a bottom 42% of the league mark. His sprint speed was in the top 17% of the league in 2019. He missed time with knee tendinitis in August, so maybe that played a role, but his sprint speed was also way down in 2022. It resulted in only 5 steals in 135 games. That seriously cuts down his upside because he’s not a monster home run hitter either with a career worst 6.2 degree launch that resulted in 20 homers. It’s not all bad news though as Bichette still hits the ball very hard with a 90.2 MPH EV and he still makes a ton of contact with a 19.1% K%. His .361 xwOBA was actually a career high. he had a .306 BA and he’s never had a BA under .290 in his 5 year career. BA guys are not my favorite to go after for fantasy, but I’m not willing to classify Bichette as “BA guy” quite yet. Development isn’t linear, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him faster with a higher launch in 2024, and even if he doesn’t improve in those areas, he’s still an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 89/25/94/.296/.340/.483/12
33) Royce Lewis MIN, 3B, 24.9 – Royce goes in for ACL surgeries like he’s going in for a tune-up, because he always comes right back firing on all cylinders. He showed double plus power with 19 homers in 64 games (including the playoffs) on the back of a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV, a 114 MPH Max EV (top 10% of the league), and a 16.2 degree launch. He still has above average to plus speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint despite the knee injuries (6 steals), and his plate approach, which was once a bit of a concern as a prospect, was about average with a 23%/8.4% K%/BB%. It all led to a 155 wRC+ in 58 games. When he’s on the field, he’s done nothing but destroy levels since 2022. I implored you to keep buying through the knee surgeries, writing in last years Top 1,000, “I named Lewis a player to target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip.” … so hopefully you already have him on your team. If not for the added injury risk, which I think you have to at least consider, he might have ranked 15 spots higher. 2024 Projection: 77/29/88/.272/.339/.485/16
34) Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz was on pace to go 30/30 if he played a full season (19/22 in 97 games). I know “if he played a full season” is the big question mark as he’s yet to play more than 124 games in his 3 year career, but we would have been talking about him as Top 10 dynasty asset if he played in 140+ games. Ranking him at “only” 33rd overall is the injury discount, and the discount is necessary because unfortunately the injury risk is real. A turf toe injury in May kept him out for 6 weeks which required surgery after the season. He’s expected to be fully healthy going into 2024, but a pretty major surgery during the off-season where he won’t be able to run for at least 3 months isn’t optimal. He also hit the IL for a month during the season with an oblique strain. He played in only 60 games in 2022 and needed surgery on his back and knee that year. The injuries are piling up, but he’ll only be 26 on opening day, and he still has his plus power/speed combo with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint. The 30.8%/6.8% K%/BB% isn’t great, but his 27% chase% is slightly above average, and he has a career .245 BA in 1,193 PA, so I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking. Jazz is one healthy season away from being talked about with the best in the fantasy game. 2024 Projection: 74/26/79/.247/.315/.462/28
35) Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17
36) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 47/17/54/.260/.323/.462/5 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10
37) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31
38) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – Cruz was showing major plate approach gains, in an admittingly small sample, before a broken ankle from a home plate collision ended his season. He had a 20%/17.5% BB% K%/BB% in 9 games after putting up a 34.9%/7.8% K%/BB% in 2022. It was a very small sample, but it’s what I expected to happen as Cruz never showed that level of plate approach issues in the minors. Super tall players will always have some swing and miss in their game, but that is acceptable when the talent is huge, and Cruz most certainly has huge talent with an at least plus power/speed combo. If the injury creates any type of discount, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 78/27/83/.251/.333/.471/20
39) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 29.1 – Arozarena couldn’t maintain his blistering start to the season with a much better 1st half (.855 OPS) than 2nd half (.700 OPS), but it all evened out to a typical Arozarena season. He put up a 126 wRC+ in 2023, a 124 wRC+ in 2022, and a 127 wRC+ in 2021. He went at least 20/20 in each season. The man is consistent. He hits the ball very hard (91.7 MPH EV), he put up a career best 11.3 degree launch, he doesn’t have strikeout issues (23.9% K%), he has plus speed (28.4 ft/sec sprint), and he gets on base with a career best 12.2% BB%. That’s a near elite fantasy asset. 2024 Projection: 92/22/84/.260/.355/.442/27
40) Cody Bellinger CHC, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17
41) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 31.1 – Everybody was scared off by the terrible plate approach, so Garcia went ahead and made massive improvements to it. His BB% rose 4.2 percentage points to a well above average 10.3% and his chase rate dropped 8 percentage points to a nearly average 29.3%. That’s remarkable, and it’s a reminder that a player’s plate approach tends to improve as they gain experience, hence why it’s often called a “mature” plate approach. The improved patience didn’t take away any of his power with 39 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 15.7 degree launch. The only quibble with his season is that his sprint speed dropped considerably to 27.3 ft/sec, and he stole only 9 bags in 10 attempts. With the speed decline and age, it’s hard to predict a major bounce back there, but the maturing at the dish more than makes up for it as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 94/35/103/.254/.330/.505/13
42) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022 (25.1% K%), he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38
43) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31
44) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19
45) Corbin Burnes BAL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. The trade to Baltimore doesn’t really impact his dynasty value is any meaningful way in either direction. 2024 Projection: 15/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP
46) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – It’s almost like they made the new rules and new ball specifically for Abrams. The juicier ball helped his below average power play up (87.4 MPH EV with 18 homers), the banned shift helped lefties the most (all lefties saw their BA increase from .239 in 2022 to .249 in 2023), and the bigger bases/pickoff rules sparked him to start running a ton again (7 steals in 2022 vs. 47 steals in 2023). It wasn’t only the new rules though, he also leveled up by increasing his barrel%, EV, launch, and BB%. Even with all of those gains, he was still a below average hitter with a 90 wRC+, and while he has the type of power/speed combo to thrive in fantasy while being a bad real life hitter, that profile has a way of catching up to you. Considering he’s still only 23 years old, and proved his ability to make meaningful improvements in 2023, I’m betting on him continuing to improve and becoming the fantasy beast we all expected when he was an elite prospect. 2024 Projection: 87/17/71/.267/.321/.430/42
47) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP
48) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1
49) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 31.9 – I’ve been all over Machado’s every other year voodoo thing that’s happening. Here is what I wrote in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are larger forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023” … hah! I mean, he literally had one of his good but not standout seasons with a 114 wRC+ in 138 games. I don’t even want to waste my time going through all the numbers, we all know what’s going to happen. He’s due for a beastly 2024. 2024 Projection: 86/32/98/.274/.336/.490/8
50) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 32.8 – It was another injury plagued year for Trout with only 82 games played. Nobody can be surprised by that, can they? This year it was a hamate fracture in his wrist which required surgery and effectively ended his season on July 3rd. He’s averaged 79 games over his past 3 years. It’s not only the missed games, the injuries seem to be taking a toll on his performance as it looks like he’s entering a decline phase. The power still looks great with 18 homers and a 91.9 MPH EV, but the .263 BA and 28.7% K% were both career worsts, and a continuation of a decline from 2022. His 12.4% BB% is also much lower than his prime years. He’s still very fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s long since stopped running, it shows he hasn’t fallen off a cliff athletically. If he can stay on the field, he should still put up big power numbers at the least, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 2024 Projection: 88/35/86/.273/.371/.538/4
51) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP
52) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 12/3.42/1.11/173 in 160 IP Update: I’m not panicking coming off the bad debut, but this is why I had him ranked 7th overall on the prospects rankings and not 1st overall
53) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP
54) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP
55) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP
56) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28
57) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 27.10 – A shoulder injury in 2022 put some doubt into Peralta’s ace trajectory coming into 2023, but he proved that was merely a bump in the road. He put up career bests in fastball velocity (94.4 MPH), innings pitched (165.2 IP) and BB% (7.9%). He once again eclipsed a 30% K% at 30.9%. He was also at his best in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 92/11 K/BB in his final 62.2 IP. Peralta cemented his status as a young ace this year, but because his 3.86 ERA doesn’t look all that great, you might be able to buy him for non ace prices this off-season. 2024 Projection: 12/3.38/1.09/215 in 170 IP
58) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 26.2 – Rutschman has an advantage over other catchers on playing time alone. His 687 PA led all catchers by far (William Contreras was 2nd at 611). It helps his fantasy profile play up, because he’s a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter with an elite plate approach (14.7%/13.4% K%/BB%) as his most valuable skill. I don’t mean to be too disparaging with that statement, because he has the potential to be a near elite real life hitter with a .373 xwOBA (top 8% of the league). The power is only slightly above average right now with a 92.7 MPH FB/LD EV, 7.5% Barrel%, and 12.6 degree launch, but this was his first full season in the majors, so this is basically the baseline. 2024 Projection: 88/22/85/.286/.381/.458/3
59) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 27.4 – Skubal went in for a flexor tendon “upgrade” in August 2022, and he came out one of the best pitchers in baseball when he returned in July. I’m not even going to call it a “surgery,” because me thinks there are more than a few pitchers out there who should elect to have it if you can expect these results. He put up a pitching line of 2.80/0.90/102/14 in 80.1 IP. His fastball jumped 1.7 MPH to 95.8 MPH and it became arguably the best 4-seamer in baseball with a league leading .225 xwOBA (250 pitch min). His changeup was elite too with a 50.6% whiff% that was 3rd best. The slider and sinker were also both above average pitches. His 32.9% K% trailed only Strider and Glasnow. And to top it all off, his control improved to elite levels with a 4.5% BB%. That is almost unheard of for control to actually improve directly coming off major arm surgery. He’ll have to prove he can keep up this level over a full season, but if he can, he’ll be in the conversation for the #1 fantasy starter next year. 2024 Projection: 13/3.36/1.05/190 in 155 IP
60) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.11 – You can’t leave the house these days without hearing Nolan Jones this and Nolan Jones that, but I was ringing the 5 alarm bell on Jones back in my June Targets Article, closing out the blurb by writing, “Jones has no joke near elite potential … I would go hard after him.” After that writeup he put up a 1.007 OPS with 11 homers and 14 steals in his final 57 games. He went 20/20 in just 107 games on the season. His speed was vastly underrated as a prospect with a well above average 28.4 ft/sec sprint (are scouts just making up speed grades for most prospects?), but they nailed his power grade with an at least plus 90.1/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also an OBP machine with a 12.5% BB%. The two downsides are that he’s always had high strikeout rates with a 29.7% K%, and he’s never had a high launch angle with a 9.8 degree launch. Coors Field and the low launch should help his BA from completely tanking, but he’s not going to repeat a .401 BABIP. Unfortunately, he played far too well to have much value left on the bone this off-season, but if you took my advice back in June, you already have him. 2024 Projection: 86/26/88/.255/.352/.486/23
61) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 67/20/63/.269/.343/.468/18 Update: Diagnosed with a shoulder injury and will begin the season on the IL. All options are still on the table, so surgery hasn’t been ruled out yet
62) Blake Snell SFG, LHP, 31.4 – In my first Mailbag Podcast Podcast back in April, I got asked about how concerned we should be with Blake Snell after his rough start to the season, and my response was that he is the type of pitcher to find his groove and rip off like 4 straight starts of double digit strikeouts, so I would hold on. Well, not only did he rip off 4 straight starts, he ripped off 23 straight starts with a 1.20 ERA and 186/72 K/BB in his final 135 IP. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 48/27 K/BB in the 45 IP before that. The problem is, just as easily as he can get red hot, he can also go ice cold with a 13.3% BB% that was a career worst and in the bottom 4% of the league. You are playing with fire with such bad control, which prevents Snell from entering the truly elite pitching tier, but with his extreme strikeout upside and career 3.20 ERA, it would be silly to drop him any further than the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 13/3.27/1.20/218 in 170 IP
63) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 26.7 – I was super high on Luzardo last off-season, trusting the improved control he showed in the 2nd half of 2022, and that proved wise as his 7.4% BB% was actually above average this year. He also stayed healthy, putting up a pitching line of 3.58/1.21/208/55 in 178.2 IP. The stuff is filthy with a 96.7 MPH fastball, an elite slider that put up a 51.8% whiff% (only Snell and Strider can top that), and a solid changeup that misses bats (36.1% whiff%). He officially fulfilled his ace upside status. 2024 Projection: 13/3.49/1.15/202 in 175 IP
64) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA and 24%/6.9% K%BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP
65) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 7/3.56/1.14/125 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP Update: As I wrote, “the only thing that could stop him is injuries,” and injuries just stopped him as he’s now battling right elbow soreness. He was cleared of any structural damage, but there still isn’t a clear timeline
66) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 7/3.27/1.05/115 in 100 IP Update: Model of health Gerrit Cole just got popped with nerve inflammation and edema in his elbow. He’s hoping to return in early June, but who knows. Nobody is safe
67) Tyler Glasnow LAD, RHP, 30.7 – Glasnow is 30 years old and he just reached a career high 120 IP this season. An oblique injury was the culprit this year which delayed the start of his year until late May. When he’s on the mound, it’s crystal clear his fantasy upside is matched by very, very few. His 33.4% K% was bested by only Spencer Strider. The stuff is huge with a 96.4 MPH fastball, and the control is above average with a 7.6% BB%. If you want to look on the bright side, it wasn’t an arm injury which got him this year, and if you want to include the minors and the AFL, he threw 144.2 IP in 2014 and 140 IP in 2016. If you want to completely ignore the injury risk, I can see going 30 spots higher on him. The Dodgers doling out a 5 year, $136 million contract extension for him also gives added confidence that a smart organization is willing to bet on him staying healthy enough over the next 5 years to earn that contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.11/190 in 145 IP
68) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18
69) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in my Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 55/16/61/.251/.327/.458/9 Prime Projection: 89/29/97/.268/.347/.489/16
70) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 37/9/33/.261/.322/.431/11 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25 Update: Suspended 80 games for a PED suspension. My instinct isn’t to drop super talented players down the rankings for a PED suspension, which is the same thing I did with Tatis. Marte gets a small drop, but nothing drastic.
71) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 30.2 – Fried missed 3 months of the season with a forearm strain, but he looked completely healthy when he returned with his 4th straight year of ace production. He had a pitching line of 2.55/1.13/25.7%/5.8% in 77.2 IP. He induces weak contact with a 86.5 MPH EV against (top 9% of the league), he keeps the ball on the ground with a 4.8 degree launch, he has plus control, and he misses bats with a 27.2% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 14/3.18/1.10/175 in 175 IP
72) Lane Thomas WAS, OF, 28.7 – Part of me feels like Thomas is a trap. The plate approach isn’t great (5.3% BB%), the hit tool is mediocre (25.8% K%), he was on the lucky side last year (.334 xwOBA vs. .319 wOBA), and the launch isn’t very high (10.8 degrees). But the things he does do well are the things that can result in a fantasy stud. He hits the ball fairly hard (94.6 MPH FB/LD EV), he’s fast (29.3 ft/sec sprint), and he gets the bat on the ball (23% whiff%). If you do those three things well, good things are most certainly going to happen. So while I came into this blurb intending to call Thomas a sell high, the more I really looked into it and thought about his profile, the more I realized he is a buy. I’m in. 2024 Projection: 87/25/83/.257/.318/.465/18
73) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15
74) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 26.11 – Gilbert is an elite control pitchers (4.7% BB%) with a big fastball (95.7 MPH) and improving secondaries. The whiff% was up 7.1 percentage points on his slider to a respectable 32.2%, 7.3 percentage points on his curveball to 30.6%, and his new splitter was at least plus when he went to it (14.8% usage) with a .185 xwOBA and 34.7% whiff%. Improving the secondaries was the last step to unleash his full potential, and while his 3.73 ERA and 24.5% K% in 190.2 IP doesn’t jump off the screen, it gives him the potential to level up even further in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.54/1.12/193 in 187 IP
75) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Nola likely had the worst season of his career (other than his rookie season) taking into account both surface stats and underlying numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the 3rd worst mark of his career and his 3.77 xERA was the worst of his career. A 8.3% Barrel%, 89.3 MPH EV, and 32 homers against were all career worsts, and his 25.5% K% was a 7 year low. Nothing was so bad or so out of the realm of his career norms, and he’s been alternating great years with mediocre years for his entire career, so I don’t think this is the beginning of a true decline. The Phillies obviously agree as they just signed him for 7 years at $172 million. 2024 Projection: 12/3.61/1.12/205 in 190 IP
76) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 30.4 – It was a tale of 2nd halves for Framber as he had a 2.27 ERA with a 104/21 K/BB in his first 99 IP and 4.64 ERA with a 96/36 K/BB in his final 99 IP. He also got hit up in 12 playoff innings. The velocity was up on all of his pitches with a 95.3 MPH sinker (93.9 MPH in 2022), but it seems like it actually hurt him as his once insanely elite launch angle (negative 3.6 degrees in 2022) rose all the way to a positive 4.2 degrees. He missed a few more bats with a career high 26.7% whiff%, and his control was a bit better with a 7.1% BB%, but it didn’t make up for all extra flyballs, leading to a 3.46 ERA and 4.33 xERA. He’s a very, very good pitcher no matter how you slice it, but the extreme groundball rate was his best asset, and you might not be able to fully count on that anymore. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.15/192 in 195 IP
77) Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – Greene underwent Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow in late September, but since elbows seem to be optional for hitting anyway, he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. I still think you have to give some leeway for rust, especially in the 1st half, but long term, it shouldn’t be an issue. He was in the process of his first breakout before going down with the injury with an 11.3% Barrel%, 91.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, .363 xwOBA, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to .288 BA with 11 homers, and 7 steals in 99 games (a broken fibula kept him out for over a month in June). I said “first” breakout, because he has more levels in him if he can raise his 6.6 degree launch and improve on his 27.4%/8.4% K%/BB%, which I would bet on him being able to do as he gains experience. There is a chance Greene ends up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but he can potentially be such a good real life hitter that he’ll still be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 86/20/77/.268/.335/.448/12 Prime Projection: 97/27/89/.282/.354/.476/15
78) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 33.3 – Remember when people were worried about Gausman going from San Francisco to Toronto? (I named him a target that year) Remember when people questioned if he can be consistent with a splitter as his main secondary? Well, those memories are fading as Gausman has been the model of consistency. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.18/237/55 in 185 IP. His 31.1% K% was the 3rd best mark in the league among qualified starters. He’s one of the safest aces out there. 2024 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/214 in 180 IP Update: A little shoulder injury popped up which they aren’t that concerned about right now, but not great
79) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 32.4 – MVP level Yelich ain’t walking through that door, but he managed his back well enough to have his best season in 4 years. He took advantage of the new rules with 28 steals, and he maxed out his power potential with 19 homers in 144 games despite a 3.5 degree launch. He crushes the ball (91.7/96.7 MPH AVG/FB EV), he has a great plate approach (22.2%/12.3% K%/BB%), and he has speed (28.1 ft/sec sprint). He’s getting deeper into his 30’s, and was knocked out for a week in September with a stiff back, so I’m not sure he’s the type I want to bet on long term, but there should certainly be a few more years of impact fantasy production. 2024 Projection: 102/18/69/.272/.365/.436/25
80) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 26.11 – McClanahan underwent Tommy John surgery in late August and will likely miss all of 2024, but he’s the type of pitcher I love taking the Tommy John surgery discount on. He’s established on the MLB level and his upside is elite. Before going down with the injury he was throwing a 96.8 MPH fastball with an elite changeup (54.1% whiff%) and two decent breaking balls. His whiff rates are elite with a 33.4% whiff% and his control is about average with a 8.7% BB%. He’ll also still be only 27 years at the start of the 2025 season. There is always extra risk when it comes to any major surgery, but his track record, performance, and youth makes him a great target if you can take the hit for 2024. 2024 Projection: OUT
81) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 24.8 – Buy low on Hunter Greene. We’ve been taught over and over again to not throw the towel in on elite pitching prospects if they don’t immediately dominate their first few years in the league, and Greene has all of the ingredients to be a next level breakout as he gains more experience. He had a 4.82 ERA in 112 IP, but the 3.82 xERA shows he was unlucky, and the 30.5%/9.6% K%/BB% is screaming future ace breakout. The stuff is fire with a 98.3 MPH fastball, a plus slider that notched a 39.2% whiff%, and an improving changeup that put up a respectable .314 xwOBA against. I know the fastball gets hit harder than you would expect, but as his command improves and as he continues to tinker with his arsenal, I’m betting on him figuring it out. This is going to be one of those breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight. 2024 Projection: 11/3.72/1.25/200 in 160 IP
82) Logan Webb SFG, RHP, 27.4 – Webb doesn’t have the type of strikeout rates I aim for in a true top of the rotation fantasy starter with a well below average 20.7% whiff% and an average 22.8% K%. His stuff also isn’t what I generally aim for in a top of the rotation fantasy starter with a 92.3 MPH sinker and none of his pitches as truly standout offerings. But he makes up for all of that with pinpoint control and tons of innings. His 3.7% BB% was the 3rd best amongst qualified starters. His 216 IP led all of baseball (Zac Gallen was 2nd at 210 IP). This is also his 3rd year in a row with a pristine ERA (3.25), so he’s more than cemented himself as legit. I’m usually not the highest guy on Webb in my dynasty/fantasy leagues, so I rarely end up with him, but I wouldn’t blame you for going out and getting him as your staff ace. 2024 Projection: 15/3.35/1.10/179 in 195 IP
83) Joe Ryan MIN, RHP, 27.10 – Ryan is an elite control pitcher (5.1% BB%) with a double plus 92.3 MPH 4-seamer that put up a 28.7% whiff% and was the 10th most valuable 4-seamer in baseball (200 PA min), but MLB hitters started poking some holes in his profile in 2023. He developed a major homer problem with 32 homers allowed, a 90 MPH EV against, and a 20.4 degree launch in 161.2 IP. He also still has a secondaries problem as none of his secondaries are standout offerings, to say the least. The sweeper and slider both got hit up, and while he went to the much improved splitter a lot more this year, it was only slightly above average with a 21.3% whiff% and .294 xwOBA against. It led to an inflated 4.51 ERA, and he was even worse in the 2nd half with a 5.90 ERA and 26 homers in his final 90 IP. Some of that was surely bad luck, and the 2nd half issues could have stemmed from a groin injury he picked up right around that time, but he has a career 4.05 ERA with a 4.01 xFIP in 335.1 IP, so I don’t think you can chalk it all up to bad luck/injury. I’m expecting a bounce back in 2024 and would happily buy low as a 29.3%/5.1% K%/BB% is in rarified air, but I wouldn’t be expecting it to come with too low of an ERA. 2024 Projection: 12/3.78/1.14/190 in 170 IP
84) Zach Eflin TBR, LHP, 29.4 – Tampa sprinkled their magic pixie dust on Eflin (if you missed out on Eflin, take a look at Aaron Civale for 2024), and he had the best year of his career by far with a 3.50 ERA (3.11 xERA) and 26.4%/3.4% K%/BB% in 177.2 IP. The Phillies had a horrific defense in Eflin’s career there and they have a hitter’s park, so I’m sure that had a lot to do with it, but his K/BB rate was also the best of his career, so it wasn’t all outside factors. He has elite control of a 6 pitch mix, led by a 92.2 MPH sinker that induces poor contact (86.8 MPH EV and negative one degree launch) and a 79.1 MPH plus curveball that induces weak contact and misses bats (85.4 MPH EV and 34.9% whiff%. Maybe the K rate regresses a bit more toward career norms in 2024, but I don’t think his breakout is a mirage. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.10/173 in 170 IP
85) Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B, 27.4 – Torres massively improved his strikeout rate with a career best by far 14.6% K%, but it didn’t result in a particularly monster season with 25 homers, 13 steals, and a .273 BA in 158 games. He’s slow with a 26.4 ft/sec sprint speed, and his power is only above average with a 93.4 MPH FB/LD EV. His .361 xwOBA was a career high (.346 wOBA), so he might have been a hair unlucky, but if he didn’t have that monster breakout season in 2023, we probably shouldn’t expect it in 2024 either. Above average across the board production is the expectation. 2024 Projection: 86/26/81/.271/.340/.460/12
86) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 25.0 – Miller’s huge stuff unsurprisingly transferred to the big leagues with a very strong rookie year. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 23.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 124.1 IP. He threw a 5 pitch mix and all of the pitches were good. The 99.1 MPH 4-seamer and 98.7 MPH sinker were both plus, and all 3 of his off-speed pitches missed bats (curve-36% whiff%/change-39.9%/slider-29.2% whiff%). He established a very high floor for himself. The 23.6% K% was modest, but the 6.3% BB% is very encouraging, and seeing the whiff rates on his secondaries tell me there could easily be more swing and miss in the tank. He has legitimate ace upside. 2024 Projection: 12/3.52/1.18/165 in 160 IP
87) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – Two of the oldest tricks in the dynasty book of trading make Alvarez a very attractive target this off-season. A .222 BABIP dragged his BA down to .209 (only 5 players in all of baseball with over 400 PA had a lower BABIP), and he didn’t immediately put up Hall of Fame numbers in his rookie season with a below average 97 wRC+. Bad luck (the 26% K% and 31.8% whiff% weren’t bad at all), and lack of patience with prospects in their rookie year are basically the playbook on how to make trades that look fair at the moment, but end up looking like major rip-offs not too far into the future. And with top prospects flying through the minors faster than ever, these type of buy opportunities are likely to explode when everyone’s favorite 20 and 21 year olds take a minute to adjust to MLB pitching. It’s not like Alvarez’ price will be dirt cheap though, because his 25 homers were the 2nd most for all catchers, and the 90.1/95.7 MPH EV backs up the production. The scary thing is, this is just scratching the surface of his power potential. Alvarez is going to be a perennial 30+ homer bat from the catcher position for the next decade. 2024 Projection: 72/32/80/.239/.324/.472/4 Prime Projection: 85/34/93/.254/.351/.520/3
88) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 26.2 – Jung had an uncharacteristically bad plate approach when he returned from shoulder surgery in 2022, which I assumed would improve in 2023, but it didn’t with a 29.3%/5.8% K%/BB% in 122 MLB games. It didn’t matter though, because his power was big enough to overcome it with a 91.8 MPH EV and 15 degree launch that led to 26 homers in 139 games (including the playoffs). He was intentionally aggressive with a 40.8% 1st pitch swing% (29.6% is league average), and he wasn’t chasing wild crazy with a decent 32.9% chase%, so it was obviously a strategy. This was only his rookie year, so I think he’ll become a more complete hitter as he gains experience. He’s right on track to become one of the top young power hitters in the game. 2024 Projection: 81/30/93/.264/.323/.487/2
89) Spencer Torkelson DET, 1B, 24.7 – Tork scared us for a minute there with another slow start to the season, but the underlying numbers were screaming the hot streak was coming, and it sure came with 16 homers and a .921 OPS in his final 48 games. He had a .688 OPS in the 111 games before that, but the underlying numbers say he’s much closer to the player we saw in the last third of the season. He absolutely crushes the ball with a 91.8/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, 17.1 degree launch, 14.1% Barrel%, and 50.9% Hard Hit%. And he does it with average whiff rates (24.7% whiff%), above average walk rates (9.8% BB%) and above average chase rates (23.6% Chase%). The skills are definitely in here to put up an entire season of what he did in those last 48 games. 2024 Projection: 86/33/97/.253/.338/.491/4
90) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B, 24.4 – Injuries cleared up any playing time concern for Stand, and it’s now all systems go. He cracked 13 homers with a 10.5% barrel%, 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV, 18.6 degree launch, and .347 xwOBA in 63 games in 2023. Even his hit tool was pretty good with a .270 BA and .268 xBA. The plate approach wasn’t great as expected with a 28.6%/5.8% K%/BB%, but he proved he’s capable of making improvements in that area at Triple-A with a 21.8%/10.4% K%/BB%. Speaking of Triple-A, he decimated the level with 20 homers and a 155 wRC+ in just 67 games. Strand is on a beeline to be one of the premier power hitters in the game. 2024 Projection: 76/32/89/.252/.318/.499/4
91) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Crews, and Yamamoto are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate ha) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16
92) Zack Gelof OAK, 2B, 24.5 – I named Gelof a major target mid-season, well before he started getting the respect he deserved, writing, “If you want safety, sign up for a defensive driving course. This here is the autobahn of dynasty baseball schools, and I don’t want speed limits. I want to take the restrictor plate off and let it fly. That brings us to the 6’3”, 205 pound Zack Gelof, whose upside was considerably underrated in the minors. The guy came up to the majors and has been a power/speed glutton with a 91.8 MPH EV, 20.3 degree launch, and 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. It’s led to 4 homers and 5 steals in just 16 games. He flashed those same skills in the minors with 12 homers and 20 steals in 69 games at Triple-A. Sure it might feel like your car is coming apart at the seams with the steering wheel shaking and hearing a weird squeaking sound that you can’t quite place because your whiff% meter is well into the danger zone at 42.1%, but F it, you’re sick of playing it safe and falling just short of a championship. In fantasy baseball, if you crash and burn, you don’t actually die, you just feel shitty for a few weeks/months.” … after that write-up, Gelof actually took the breakout to another level with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 25.4%/9.1% K%/BB% in his final 53 games. The strikeout and whiff rates both came way down and he continued to put up big power/speed numbers. He’s now getting the respect he deserves, so there probably isn’t that much excess value here, but I still like him at his fair price as well. 2024 Projection: 79/23/77/.246/.319/.438/28
93) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 26.2 – Lowe is in a strong side of a platoon which caps his value, but most of Tampa’s extreme depth resides in the infield, and he put up a decent .712 OPS in 67 PA vs. lefties in 2023, so I wouldn’t completely rule out him locking down a nearly full time job in 2024 (you know Tampa is always going to mix and match a bit no matter what). And even with the platoon role, his power/speed combo is big enough to go after. He cracked 20 homers with 32 steals in only 501 PA. The hit tool took a big step forward with his K% dropping 8.5 percentage points to 24.8%, and it resulted in a .290 BA, but I’m not fully buying it with a 30.8% whiff% and 35.7% Chase%. The hit tool risk is still present, and he’s going to have to keep earning at bats vs. lefties, but Lowe has a path to truly monster fantasy upside. 2024 Projection: 73/22/79/.254/.319/.451/30
Shadow93) Shohei Ohtani LAD, RHP, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani as a pitcher only. He isn’t expected to pitch at all in 2024 after seemingly undergoing an internal brace procedure on his torn UCL in August. It will be his 2nd major elbow surgery in 5 years, and it increases the odds he gets babied a bit more as a pitcher when he returns. He’s an elite pitcher when healthy and I wouldn’t want to bet against a superhuman talent like Ohtani, so I’m inclined to take the UCL surgery discount on him even as a pitcher only. 2024 Projection: OUT
94) Cole Ragans KCR, LHP, 26.4 – Let me start with a word of caution. Ragans wasn’t nearly as good with Texas to start the season with a 5.92 ERA and 22.6%/13.2% K%/BB% in 24.1 IP, and he scuffled to close out the year too with a 4.88 ERA and 25.5%/15.7% K%/BB% in his final 24 IP. There is definitely potential for him to disappoint in 2024, but how can you not bet on a guy with this level of talent and stuff. He’s a 6’4” lefty with a 96.5 MPH fastball that notched a 27.9% whiff%. He throws 4 secondaries (change, cutter, curve, slider) with the change and slider leading the way with a .247 xwOBA and .202 xwOBA, respectively. In between the struggles to start and end the season, he had a 1.51 ERA with a 34.2%/6% K%/BB% in 47.2 IP. This is the type of ace upside where you don’t want to outthink yourself too much, because if you start to focus too much on the control issues, or the lack of track record, or injury risk with his velocity taking a monster jump this year (92.1 MPH fastball in 2022), you just might talk yourself out of him. 2024 Projection: 10/3.40/1.19/185 in 155 IP
95) Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 25.1 – Gavin vs. Tanner is an interesting debate. Tanner also had an excellent ERA (2.98) with a solid, but unspectacular 24.1% K% in 142 IP. He has the better control with a 7.7% BB% and he also has the much better changeup with a .234 xwOBA and 37.8% whiff% on the pitch (their sliders are equal). That gives him the definite safety edge over Williams. Where Williams beats him out is the fastball, and while Bibee’s 94.9 MPH fastball is nothing to sneeze at, it doesn’t have quite the explosion of Williams’. For pure upside, I would still give it to Williams, but Tanner has the safety edge with plenty of upside himself. 2024 Projection: 12/3.55/1.16/179 in 175 IP
96) Bryan Reynolds PIT, OF, 29.2 – If you look up “solid across the board production” in an imaginary dynasty baseball encyclopedia, you will see Bryan Reynolds picture. He slashed .263/.330/.460 with 24 homers, 12 steals, and a 21.6%/8.3% K%/BB% in 145 games. He hits the ball hard (90.1 MPH EV) with a line drive approach (10.9 degree launch) and above average speed (27.7 ft/sec sprint speed). He won’t carry you in any one category, but he’ll make a legit contribution in all of them. 2024 Projection: 89/26/87/.268/.340/.470/10
97) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 30.0 – Sometimes Runs and RBI can get lost in the fantasy chase for big power/speed combos, and Bregman thrives in those two categories. He scored 103 runs with 98 RBI despite being uninspiring in the other 3 5×5 hitting categories with a .262 BA, 25 homers, and 3 steals. He has an elite plate approach with a 12%/12.7% K%/BB%, is a great OBP player with a .363 OBP, and he gets the most out of his average raw power (91.9 MPH FB/LD EV) with a 17.6 degree launch and generally high pull rates throughout his career. Being an excellent real life batter, hitting in the middle of a great lineup is where he derives his value. 2024 Projection: 96/25/90/.265/.361/.450/3
98) Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 29.8 – Suzuki was hitting the ball too hard all season (91.4 MPH EV) to be held down for long, and the inevitable explosion happened in the final two months of the season, slashing .350/.406/.667 with 12 homers and a 17.4%/9.2% K%/BB% in his final 50 games. He’s a line drive hitter with a 10.8 degree launch, and he’s not a good base stealer with an under 50% success rate on the bases (6 for 13), so the fantasy upside isn’t huge, but he looks set up to have a big year now that he is getting fully acclimated to MLB. 2024 Projection: 89/25/87/.276/.351/.478/8
99) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34
100) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 36.7 – Goldschmidt put up a career low .810 OPS in 2023 (excluding his 48 game rookie year where he had a .808 OPS). He faked us out once before thinking he was about to decline after he put up a .821 OPS in 2019, so you know what they say about “fool me twice, shame on me,” but considering he’s 36 years old, maybe we should take this one more seriously. He’s not making it easy though, as his underlying numbers were still quite good with a 12% Barrel%, 91.3 MPH EV, and a career high 50.8% Hard Hit%. Those aren’t the numbers of a man who is about the fall off a cliff, although he did most of that damage in the first half with a .736 OPS in his final 74 games. Logic demands we have to factor in a decline phase for Goldy, but elite hitters like Goldy can often defy logic. 2024 Projection: 92/30/90/.279/.370/.480/10
101) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. The only things preventing him from being ranked even higher is that he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts. He hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16
102) Dylan Cease SDP, RHP, 28.3 – Cease has below average and inconsistent control, and while that certainly played a role in his disappointing season, that isn’t even what really got to him this year. What got to him is that his stuff was down a tick across the board and was much more hittable. His fastball velocity dropped from 96.8 MPH in 2022 to 95.6 MPH in 2023, and his slider dropped from 87.4 MPH to 86.3 MPH. It resulted in his EV against going from 86.8 MPH to 90 MPH, and his Hard Hit% going from 31.2% to 41.6%. He put up a pitching line of 4.58/1.42/214/79 in 177 IP on the season. He definitely got a little unlucky with a 4.07 xERA, he still missed a ton of bats with a 31% whiff%, and even his diminished stuff is still very good, so I’m far from completely writing him off, but the true ace numbers he put up in 2022 is looking like an outlier. 2024 Projection: 12/3.75/1.26/215 in 175 IP
103) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. 2024 Projection: 11/3.37/1.17/185 in 155 IP Update: Got a PRP injection for a sore shoulder and will begin the season on the IL. So far it doesn’t seem like there is a ton of concern and he is hoping to begin throwing again in March, but this is not good news to say the least
104) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 24.8 – Gavin didn’t blow the doors off in his MLB debut with a 23.5%/10.7% K%/BB in 82 IP, but he pitched damn well with a 3.26 ERA, and he proved all of his skills will transfer. The 95.7 MPH fastball was plus with a respectable 24.9% whiff%, and his two breaking balls were at least above average with a .238 xwOBA on the slider and 35.2% whiff% on the curve. It led to a 27.8% whiff% overall which is a very strong foundation to set in your rookie year. The control and/or the changeup will likely have to take a step forward to reach his top of the rotation upside, but this was a very encouraging start to his career. 2024 Projection: 9/3.69/1.22/151 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.48/1.17/195 in 180 IP Update: Has elbow discomfort but it isn’t considered serious. Will start the season on the IL though
105) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.9 – Jobe made his season debut in mid June from lumber spine inflammation, which obviously sounded worse than it really was, because he immediately looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball when he returned. He had a 2.81 ERA with a 32.6%/2.3% K%/BB% in 64 IP at mostly High-A. He closed the season out with a gem at Double-A, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB, and then he went to the AFL and dominated in that extreme hitter’s environment with a 2.87 ERA and 19/5 K/BB in 15.2 IP. He looks absolutely electric on the mound at 6’2”, 190 pounds with an athletic delivery and a double plus 4 pitch mix. He was known for his high spin slider coming into the draft, and the pitch is so filthy it almost doesn’t look real. His changeup dominated as well with nasty tailing diving action, the fastball sits mid 90’s with excellent movement, and the cutter is a high spin pitch that misses bats. And he does all of this with pinpoint control. He still has to prove it in the upper minors, which I’m not too concerned about, and he has to prove he can stay healthy and maintain his stuff with a full MLB starters workload, which is more concerning, but that’s just the pitching prospect game. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball, non Yoshinobu Yamamoto division. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.03/220 in 180 IP
106) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP
107) Chase DeLauter CLE, OF, 22.6 – A broken foot delayed the start of DeLauter’s pro career until June of this year, but he quickly answered every question you could have had about him in resounding fashion. He didn’t play in the toughest college conference (Coloniel Athletic Association), so seeing his hit tool and advanced plate approach completely transfer to pro ball is huge. He put up a 12.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 42 games at High-A (164 wRC+), a 10.7%/17.9% K%/BB% in 6 games at Double-A (149 wRC+), and a 10.1%/12.8% K%/BB% in 23 games in the AFL. For a man with his type of talent at 6’4”, 235 pounds, that is incredibly exciting. He hit only 5 homers in 57 regular season games, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues, he has plus raw power, and he’s hit 5 homers in 23 AFL games. The power is there. He also didn’t run a ton with 6 steals, but keep in mind he was coming off the foot injury, and he nabbed 5 bags in the AFL. He was a bit underrated at the end of 2023 and into the early off-season, but with his insane spring, he’s not underrated anymore.. 2024 Projection: 48/11/44/.257/.319/.438/11 Prime Projection: 88/25/86/.274/.343/.472/17
108) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 31/8/29/.228/.304/.421/9 Prime Projection: 89/25/86/.248/.326/.478/26 Update: Jones massively improved his swing and miss this spring, which is extremely encouraging considering his monster tools. I just ranked him 3rd overall on my Predicting the Top 50 2025 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. I’ve been super high on Jones from the get go, ranking him 5th overall on my 2023 FYPD Rankings, and I’ll continue to be super high on him
109) Bryson Stott PHI, 2B, 26.6 – Stott has a level of power upside in him that many other plus contact/speed profiles don’t have. He’s 6’3”, 200 pounds, he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 11.3 degree launch in his career, and he doesn’t have very low EV’s with an about average 88.1 MPH EV. Philly’s ballpark is also among the best for homers. I’m not predicting he will have a big power breakout because the 91.3 MPH FB/LD EV isn’t great and he doesn’t pull the ball a ton, but he’s still in the part of his career where big jumps in skills can take place, so his power leveling up is something I’m not ruling out. And his 15 homers in 2023 already isn’t too bad of a floor. Obviously what you are actually buying is his 15.6% K% and 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed with 31 steals, but that little extra hope for a power jump is what puts him over similar players for me. 2024 Projection: 83/16/68/.272/.330/.415/30
110) Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 26.11 – Hoerner is an elite defensive 2B with elite contact rates (12.1% K%) and elite base stealing skills (43 for 50 on the bases). He doesn’t hit the ball hard with an 86.6 MPH EV, but that isn’t truly in the danger zone with the new ball. He has below average walk rates and below average chase rates, so the main risk is that he ends up hitting at the bottom of the order rather than the top of the order, but he can also just as easily improve in those areas. 2024 Projection: 89/11/61/.277/.339/.400/39
111) Will Smith LAD, C, 29.0 – I feel like I keep expecting Smith to hit another level with his surface stats, and it’s just not happening. He hits the ball hard with a 89.3 MPH EV, he lifts it with a 15.6 degree launch, and he has a great plate approach with a 16.1%/11.4% K%/BB%, but it all resulted in him finishing 141st overall on the Razzball Player Rater with a .261 BA and 19 homers in 126 games. He’s hinted at bigger surface stats in his rookie year with 15 homers in just 54 games, and in the shortened 2020 season with 8 homers in just 37 games, but he hasn’t been able to repeat that in a full season. The ingredients are there to have that huge career year, but you can’t draft him expecting it. I would expect another year where he’s a really, really good real life hitter, but only an above average fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 74/24/79/.260/.355/.461/2
112) J.T. Realmuto PHI, C, 33.0 – Buying a 33 year old catcher whose speed is a major part of his profile doesn’t seem like the best long term bet, but Realmuto keeps churning out good seasons (20 homers and 16 steals in 135 games), and his speed hasn’t dropped off a smidge yet with a 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His power is also big enough to sustain a speed decline with a 95 MPH FB/LD EV, 16.7 degree launch, and 11.2% Barrel%. In a win now scenario I don’t mind riding him for a few more years, but this off-season could definitely be a good opportunity to cash in on him before he does start showing signs of decline. 2024 Projection: 73/23/73/.265/.328/.464/17
113) William Contreras MIL, C, 26.3 – Contreras finished as the #1 fantasy catcher in 2023. His 611 PA were 2nd to only Adley (687 PA), and his contact rates took a big jump forward with a career best 20.6% K% (27.7% in 2022) and 28% whiff% (34.3% in 2022). The improved contact rates didn’t take away from his hard hit ability at all with a 91.3 MPH EV and career best 48.7 Hard Hit%. He even took advantage of the new rules, chipping in with a career best 6 steals (previous career high was 2, including the minors). The one area of his game that didn’t improve is his launch angle with a career low 4.7 degree launch, resulting in only 17 homers in 141 games. He was also on the lucky side with a .253 xBA vs. .289 BA. The low launch makes it hard to buy him for his power, the low xBA makes it hard to buy him for his BA, and you sure as hell ain’t buying him for speed with a 26.5 ft/sec sprint speed. What you are buying is how hard he hits the ball, and hope the rest works itself out one way or the other, which isn’t a bad plan. 2024 Projection: 77/21/77/.274/.352/.455/3
114) Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 26.6 – Vinnie’s season ended in June when he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. While it’s been proven you don’t need elbows to hit, you most certainly need your shoulder. I’m more scared of shoulder surgeries than elbow surgeries, but we’ve seen plenty of guys return from shoulder surgeries and perform well (Jung, Tatis, Carroll), and Vinnie is already ripping liners in the cage, so I’m not overly concerned. What’s of greater concern is that the Royals park is brutal for lefty homers, and Vinnie has yet to prove he can be a big power hitter on the MLB level. He raised his launch angle before going down with the injury with a 17.4 degree launch, but he put up only a 92.1 MPH FB/LD EV, and it was only 92 MPH in 2022. It resulted in a .247 BA with 9 homers in 61 games. The contact rates and plate approach are near elite with a 11.9%/9.6% K%/BB%, so the floor is very high, but he has no speed and the homer power is still questionable. 2024 Projection: 82/25/86/.270/.353/.467/2
115) Spencer Steer CIN, 1B/3B/OF, 26.4 – I named Steer a target last off-season and finished his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut.” As I predicted, his poor EV numbers in his rookie year (84.7 MPH) came way up to 88.7 MPH, and he most certainly did damage, slashing .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 15 steals, and a 20.9%/10.2% K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back up the production with average to above average marks everywhere you look. 2024 Projection: 79/24/81/.266/.341/.457/13
116) Kyle Schwarber PHI, OF, 31.1 – Schwarber drilled 47 homers with a .197 BA. Almost half of his hits were homers with 115 total hits. He is the ultimate 3 true outcome slugger with a 16.4% Barrel% and 29.9%/17.5% K%/BB%. 2024 Projection: 94/43/92/.222/.354/.499/4
117) Dansby Swanson CHC, SS, 30.2 – Swanson doesn’t have quite big enough power or a good enough hit tool to only be around a 10 steal guy, especially in the modern game. He hit .244 with 22 homers and 9 steals in 147 games. He was definitely on the unlucky side with a .346 xwOBA vs. a .325 wOBA, but he’s a career .253 hitter and 27 homers is his career high, so he didn’t fall that much under his career norms. The skills are in there to put up a big power/speed season with a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint, but at 30 years old already, it would be a bit reckless to draft him expecting that. 2024 Projection: 86/26/84/.256/.331/.458/13
118) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21
119) Ha-Seong Kim SDP, 2B/SS/3B, 28.6 – Kim put up a 71 wRC+ in year one, a 106 wRC+ in year two, and a 112 wRC+ in year 3. His whiff% went from 21.6%, to 19.1%, to 17.7%, and his BB% went from 7.4%, to 8.8%, to 12%. Keep this in mind for all international players coming over to a new country and using a different baseball. It takes time to get fully acclimated. Kim’s big year wasn’t only about getting acclimated though, he also took advantage of the new rules and new ball with his stolen base totals exploding with 36 steals and his below average power (86.2 MPH EV) playing up with 17 homers. 2023 was probably on the high end of what Kim is capable of, but as long as MLB doesn’t deaden the ball again, I don’t see why he can’t put up similar numbers in 2024. 2024 Projection: 82/15/60/.255/.338/.395/32
120) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 29.6 – I’m not so sure I want to take the ride with Mullins into “old age.” His speed has been declining every single year since he debuted in 2018, and it was down to a merely above average 28 fts/sec in 2023. With everyone running wild now, and him slowing down, his stolen base contributions aren’t likely to be as valuable in the future. He’s also put up a well below average xwOBA in every year of his career but one (2021). It’s sat at .288 for the past two seasons. He’s handily outperformed his xwOBA in his career, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned, but I don’t exactly love it. And he’s in a stacked organization where he may start to get rested more often. I still have him ranked relatively highly, because even with all of that, he has the easy potential to go 20/30. He doesn’t hit the ball weakly with an average-ish 88.9 MPH EV, he lifts it with a 21.6 degree launch, and he stole 19 bases in 115 games in 2023 battling through a couple lower body injuries. He’s also a solid CF defender, so his glove should help keep him on the field. 2024 Projection: 78/18/74/.255/.322/.415/26
121) Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo doesn’t get nearly the hype as most of the other breakout rookie pitchers, and he deserves every bit of that hype. His 95.1 MPH 4-seamer is double plus with a 30.3% whiff% and .287 xwOBA, His 95 MPH sinker is also double plus with a negative 5 degree launch and 85.2 MPH EV against. The slider and cutter both get a respectable amount of whiffs (33% and 31.3%) and both induce weak contract (86.1 MPH and 83.7 MPH). His 28.1% whiff is well above average and his control is average with a 8.4% BB%. This is a floor of an above average starter, and the ceiling is legit top of the rotation production. The 4.21 ERA (3.48 xERA) should leave plenty of meat on the bone this off-season. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.62/1.22/160 in 155 IP
122) Bo Naylor CLE, C, 24.1 – It took Naylor a minute to find his footing in the majors (.592 OPS in his first 44 games), but he was an absolute stud once he did, slashing .321/.434/.679 with 7 homers, 4 steals, and a 16.2%/16.2% K%/BB% in his final 28 games. There were some hit tool concerns in the minors, but he’s completely erased those with a 21.8% MLB whiff% and a 19.3%/18.1% K%/BB% at Triple-A (123 wRC+). He didn’t smash the ball in the majors with an 87.7 MPH EV, but he had a 90.8 MPH EV at Triple-A, and he lifts the ball with a 21 degree launch, so he’s going to get the most out of his power. The cherry on top is that he’s always liked to run with average speed. Naylor has a chance to be a true beastly fantasy catcher. 2024 Projection: 73/22/73/.243/.335/.444/10 Prime Projection: 79/27/83/.259/.350/.475/10
123) Yainer Diaz HOU, C, 25.5 – Diaz isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, which made Houston hesitant to hand over the reins, but his offense is about to force the issue (literally in the middle of writing this blurb, MLB Trade Rumors dropped an article reporting that Diaz will be the man in 2024, so we don’t have to worry about playing time). He’s a barrel machine with a 12.2% Barrel% on the back of plus power (90.3 MPH EV) and above average contact rates (19.6% K%). He was unstoppable in the final 83 games of the season with a .295 BA, 22 homers and a .905 OPS. He’s a high chase player with a 2.9% BB% and 44% chase%, but plenty of guys thrive with that profile when they are in their physical primes, and he’s sure to improve on that as he gains experience. I like him at his fair value, and I wouldn’t mind sticking my neck out a bit to grab him either. 2024 Projection: 68/25/84/.276/.318/.477/1
124) Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 23.11 – Gorman’s swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 35.5% whiff%, and it made him an extremely streaky player in 2023. He alternated between red hot and ice cold, but it all added up to a classic low BA slugger type season, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers, 7 steals, and a 31.9%/11.4% K%/BB% in 119 games. He’s not a good defensive player, but St. Louis seems committed to getting his bat in the lineup, and looking up and down their organization, he’s one of their few young sluggers, so I’m not too worried about playing time long term. He also hits lefties well with a .840 OPS in 2023, so that shouldn’t be a major issue either. If his hit tool takes a step forward, he can be one of the best power hitters in the game, and even if it doesn’t, a 91 MPH EV, 22.2 degree launch, and 16.5% Barrel% ensures he will be an impact fantasy player no matter what. 2024 Projection: 77/33/90/.242/.331/.490/7
125) Henry Davis PIT, OF, 24.6 – Davis put up a 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut, which is in the top 28% of the league. His speed grades on mainstream prospect lists ranged from a 30 to a 45 … a 30!?!? I’m calling for a full scale investigation into speed grades! 😉 … but seriously, are they just picking them out of a hat for most guys? He wasn’t afraid to use that speed either with 10 steals in 55 games in the minors and 3 steals in 8 attempts in 62 games in the majors. That success rate was rough, but I like his willingness to run. And speed is just the cherry on top. What you are buying is his bat. He was insanely dominant in the upper minors with a 1.015 OPS and 12 homers in 55 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He wasn’t as good in the majors with a .653 OPS, but the underlying numbers were encouraging with an 88.6 MPH EV, 12.5 degree launch, 27% whiff%, and 9.8% BB%. Pitt has also confirmed they plan on using him behind the plate again, and with Endy Rodriguez’ injury, that is now a foregone conclusion. All of the components are there for him to have a big breakout as he gets more comfortable in the majors, and because the debut was mediocre, he is a great target. 2024 Projection: 67/21/75/.249/.326/.448/8 Prime Projection: 78/25/85/.266/.344/.490/10
126) Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 25.7 – Seattle certainly has a type. Miller’s profile is eerily similar to George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. He has elite control of an at least plus 95.1 MPH fastball that he relies on heavily, putting up a 27.8% whiff% with a 58.5% usage on the pitch. It resulted in a pitching line of 4.32/1.14/22.2%/4.8% in his 131.1 IP MLB debut. The secondaries are even rougher than Kirby and Gilbert though with a below average slider (91 MPH EV and 24.4% whiff%) being his best and most used secondary. If 2023 was his floor, you are still getting a solid low WHIP mid rotation starter, and considering his secondaries have nowhere to go but up, he has #2/3 fantasy starter upside. 2024 Projection: 11/3.88/1.19/155 in 160 IP Update: Miller’s new splitter looks filthy, and it plays off his fastball perfectly. He gets a spring bump
127) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 29.8 – Buehler missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2022, but he actually almost made it back for the end of the season. He made one rehab outing at Triple-A and pitched 2 perfect innings with 2 K’s. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH and he used a 6 pitch mix. It sure seems like the stuff will get back to nearly 100% by the start of 2024, although there has been some talk about limiting his innings/delaying the start of his season, and his strikeout rate was trending down in 2021 and 2022. A #2 fantasy starter is a reasonable expectation for him going forward. 2024 Projection: 11/3.50/1.17/160 in 160 IP
128) Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 31.4 – Ranking pitchers with arm injuries, especially a shoulder injury, is one of the hardest parts of doing rankings. Just look at Brandon Woodruff, who you might have been inclined to ignore his shoulder injury, that is until it was announced he underwent shoulder surgery and will miss all of 2024. Musgrove was seemingly headed in the right direction from his shoulder injury that had kept him out since July 28th before it was obvious there was no point in bringing him back. If you want to ignore the injury risk, Musgrove had yet another excellent season with a 3.05 ERA and 24.3%/5.3% K%/BB% in 97.1 IP. He throws a 6 pitch mix with 5 of the 6 pitches putting up an above average to plus xwOBA. Performance wise, he is a very safe bet, but that shoulder injury adds a healthy dose of unknown risk that is hard to actually pinpoint. 2024 Projection: 10/3.41/1.14/151 in 150 IP
129) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.7 – Tiedemann’s dominance in the AFL quieted some of the risk that was growing after an injured and mixed bag season in 2023. He had a 2.50 ERA with a 23/8 K/BB in 18 IP. He went 5 IP in 3 of the 4 starts after not reaching 5 IP the entire season. The stuff is elite with a mid 90’s fastball and two plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He also looks the part at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery. If he stays healthy and throws the ball over the plate, he’ll be an easy ace, but those are the two areas that can trip him up. He pitched only 62 innings all year, including the AFL, because of a biceps injury that kept him out for almost 3 months. It will probably take 3 years to truly build up his innings fully, and we all know the injury risk with young flamethrowers like this. His 12% BB% is also nearing the danger zone where inconsistency can end up a part of the profile. The profile isn’t without risk, but when dealing in upside prospect flamethrowers, that is just the game. He’s an elite pitching prospect. 2024 Projection: 5/3.81/1.31/111 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.38/1.19/213 in 170 IP
130) Jacob deGrom TEX, RHP, 35.10 – deGrom’s season ended after just 6 starts with elbow inflammation that required Tommy John surgery in early June. He also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010, so he’s a two time offender. We can dig into past arms who returned from 2 Tommy John surgeries (Nathan Eovaldi), but the bottom line is that an elite of the elite player like deGrom can be compared to nobody. Even if he takes one or two steps back, he is coming from such a high place that he will still be a legit ace. He had a dumb stupid 39.1%/3.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP before going down with the injury. His fastball sat 98.7 MPH and his slider and changeup both sat over 91 MPH. In late October he claimed his arm was already feeling pretty normal and was hoping to return in August of next season. He’ll “only” be 35 years old, which is like 30 years old in truly elite pitcher years. I honestly wouldn’t be all that scared going after him, but there is obviously some unknown risk here that is hard to actually quantify, and it’s usually the 2nd year back from Tommy John where pitchers truly round into form. 2024 Projection: 5/3.17/1.02/85 in 60 IP
131) George Springer TOR, OF, 34.7 – Springer seems to be in a perfect target goldilocks zone for a win now team. His age (34) will scare a lot of dynasty owners away, and he’s coming off a down season with a .732 OPS. What makes him a buy is that most of his underlying numbers aren’t far off from his career norms, he was playing better in his final 49 games with a .815 OPS, and the new stolen base rules invigorated him with a career high 20 steals. His 22.3% whiff% was a career best and while he’s slowing down, he still had above average speed with a 27.8 ft/sec sprint. I think he still has a few more really good years in the tank. 2024 Projection: 88/27/82/.264/.339/.460/15
132) Marcell Ozuna ATL, OF, 33.5 – Ozuna’s .400 xwOBA was the 9th best mark in all of baseball. He popped a career high 40 homers on the back of a 16.6% Barrel% and 22.6%/9.6% K%/BB%. He vastly underperformed his underlying numbers in 2021-2022, but nobody wanted to trust the bounce back was coming. 2023 sure had the look and feel of a good ole’ traditional career year, so I wouldn’t expect a repeat, but he’s been a really good hitter his entire career, and 2023 put a screeching halt to any talk of an age related decline. 2024 Projection: 79/33/93/.265/.332/.508/2
133) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 33.0 – Arenado had his first decline when he left Coors, and now it looks like he’s having his 2nd decline as he enters his mid 30’s. He’s in the bottom 6% of baseball for sprint speed, which is a career worst and is an indicator is he passing his physical prime. Fangraphs and Statcast both agreed his defense fell to career worst rates as well, although he is still a good defensive player. The numbers looked mighty pedestrian too with 26 homers, a .266 BA, and a .774 OPS in 144 games. He still gets the bat on the ball (16.5% K%), he can lift it (16.9 degree launch), and hits it hard enough with a 88.8 MPH EV, so he’s more than capable of putting up good offensive seasons, but his days of being a true fantasy beast seem in the past. 2024 Projection: 77/29/91/.269/.325/.473/4
134) Josh Hader HOU, Closer, 30.0 – I decided to ignore Hader’s rough 2nd half of 2022 due to the extenuating circumstances (his wife went through a very tough last month of pregnancy), and that proved wise as he was completely back to himself in 2023. He put up a 1.28 ERA with a 36.8%/13% K%/BB% in 56.1 IP. The sinker sat 96.1 MPH and the slider put up a 51.7% whiff%. He’s as elite as they come. Houston is a good landing spot for him, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Pressly steal some saves away based on matchups with Hader being a lefty. 2024 Projection: 4/2.21/1.02/93/32 saves in 60 IP
135) Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 28.9 – Steele worries me a little. He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither pitch is really dominant. The fastball sits only 91.8 MPH and it put up a solid but unspectacular .326 xwOBA and 20.3% whiff%. The slider put up a pretty mediocre 31.1% whiff%, and while it induced weak contact with a 86.6 MPH EV against, I prefer my sliders to miss bats. His control took a monster step forward with a 5% BB%, but he’s never shown that level of control in the past, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see that regress a bit in 2024. His ERA was also much better in the 1st half (2.56) than the 2nd half (3.62). I say all of this just to add some caution, because not only do I still like him, I was actually lightly touting him last off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation.” He induces weak contact, he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he has about average whiff rates, and his control took a big step forward. He’s a good pitcher, just don’t be surprised if he ends up more above average than truly standout in 2024. 2024 Projection: 13/3.62/1.21/175 in 170 IP
136) Michael King SDP, RHP, 28.10 – King pitched too damn well once being transitioned to a starter to leave a ton of value on the bone. And then tack on him being the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade, and he won’t be sliding under anyone’s radar. He put up a 2.02 ERA with a 45/7 K/BB in his final 35.2 IP. There is nothing in the underlying data to say it was a fluke, and he’s been lights out for 2 years now in whatever role the Yanks put him in. The stuff is good, he misses bats, he induces weak contact, and he doesn’t have any major control issues. He was also a starter throughout his minor league career, so it’s not like starting is a new challenge for him. Everything is pointing towards him being for real, but there are a couple things to consider before you really sell the farm for him. His velocity was slowly declining to close out the season, and he also had a serious arm injury in 2022 (fractured elbow which required surgery). It adds at least some doubt if he can truly keep up this level of production under a full starter’s workload. I’m willing to go after him if the price doesn’t get too out of control, but I’m concerned his price could get too out of control. 2024 Projection: 10/3.44/1.17/162 in 145 IP
137) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B, 30.6 – When the balls get juicier, Marte’s power comes out to play. He hit 32 homers with the silly super ball in 2019, and he jacked 25 homers with the juicier ball this year. He’s a line drive hitter (10.7 degree launch) with a plus plate approach (16.8%/10.9% K%/BB%), plus raw power (91.1 MPH EV), and a handful of steals (8 steals). As long as the balls stay a bit juiced, he’ll likely be able to line enough dingers out of the park to not drop back down to dead ball levels (12 homers in 2022). 2024 Projection: 87/22/74/.271/.346/.455/9
138) Josh Naylor CLE, 1B, 26.9 – Naylor built on his breakout 2022 season by leveling up yet again. In fact, he’s improved every single year of his career with a .298 xwOBA in 2019, .309 xwOBA in 2020, .311 xwOBA in 2021, .327 xwOBA in 2022, and finally a .345 xwOBA in 2023. Why not again in 2024? He’s always hit the ball fairly hard (89.1 MPH EV), and the improvements stemmed from slowly raising his launch and lowering his strikeout rate. His 12.3 degree launch and 13.7% K% were both career bests. He’s very slow with a 25.8 ft/sec sprint speed, but he’s frisky on the bases with 10 steals. The plate approach isn’t great with a 6.7% BB% and 39.5% chase%, but he’s a natural hitter with good feel for the barrel. Naylor won’t be a league winner, but he has a very high likelihood of being an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 72/23/89/.277/.331/.459/9
139) Chas McCormick HOU, OF, 29.0 – McCormick is going full late career breakout on us, and really the only thing that was stopping him from breaking out earlier was opportunity. He got the opportunity in 2023 and he capitalized on it, slashing .273/.353/.489 with 22 homers, 19 steals, and a 25.6%/8.8% K%/BB% in 115 games. It was good for a 133 wRC+. He put up a 114 wRC+ in 2022 and a 108 wRC+ in 2021, so he’s always been good. He has average power with an 88 MPH EV, but he gets the ball in the air with a 14.6 degree launch and he pulls it with a 44.3% Pull%. The new ball is perfect for him, and his home ballpark is perfect for him too. He took advantage of the new stolen base rules with his plus speed, going from 4 steals in 2022 (119 games) to 19 steals this year. He also improved his whiff% with a career best 28.9% whiff%. He’s locked in with a starting job and has easy 20/20 potential in 2024. 2024 Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.339/.465/20
140) Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 28.0 – We gotta stop acting so surprised when a former elite pitching prospect with big stuff doesn’t truly break out until their mid to late 20’s. It happens damn often, and Keller was the latest for it to happen to. His K% jumped 5.4 percentage points to 25.5% and his BB% dropped 2 percentage points to 6.7%. He added a cutter into his arsenal, and it might have played a role in his 95.2 MPH 4 seamer turning into a near elite pitch with a .278 xwOBA against and 30.2% whiff%. He also pitched a career high 194.1 IP. He only had a 4.21 ERA with a 4.16 xERA, and he was much worse in the 2nd half with a 5.59 ERA, but the seeds have been planted for yet another step forward in 2024. He’s the type I’m not going to reach for, but would be hoping for him to fall in my lap if people shy away from him. 2024 Projection: 11/3.79/1.23/195 in 180 IP
141) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 27.0 – Javier has been a strikeout machine his entire career going back to when he was in rookie ball as an 18 year old, which is why it is so confusing how his strikeout rate fell off a cliff this year. He put up a 23.1% K% in 162 IP after putting up a 33.2% K% in 148.2 IP in 2022. Both his 4-seamer and slider were much less effective this year with his velocity down 1.1 MPH on the fastball to 92.7 MPH, and his slider had less break on it resulting in a 10.7 percentage point drop in whiff% to a pedestrian 28.7%. His overall whiff% didn’t drop nearly as much as his K% with a still respectable 27.1% whiff% (30.4% in 2022), and his strikeout rate was already starting to normalize with a 30% K% in his final 41.2 IP, including the playoffs. He couldn’t back up his monster 2022 breakout, and I wouldn’t expect a bounce back to that level, but I do believe he’ll be better in 2024. 2024 Projection: 12/3.83/1.24/185 in 165 IP
142) Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 26.7 – Carpenter has done nothing but rake in his pro career (and amateur career), and has been underrated every step of the way, including this off-season. He was a 19th round draft pick in 2019, he was never anything even approaching a hyped prospect, and now after his 2nd strong year in the majors, he still gets disrespected with a 195 ADP in NFBC drafts. He put up a 124 wRC+ with 6 homers in 31 games in 2022, and then followed that up with a 121 wRC+ and 20 homers in 118 games this year. The underlying numbers fully back up the production with a 10.2% Barrel%, 90.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, 13.1 degree launch, and a 25.1%/7.0% K%/BB%. He’s got surprising speed too as the cherry on top with a 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 6 steals. He’s not a good defensive player and he struggles vs. lefties (.657 OPS in 78 PA), so he has some platoon risk, but a collection of offensive skills like this from a 26 year old is not exactly easy to find. 2024 Projection: 74/28/87/.261/.328/.472/8
143) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.5 – Meadows is looking mighty similar to my Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof buy calls from mid-season. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset with the build and athleticism to back it up, but he always got vastly underrated on prospect lists. And unlike Jones and Gelof who have played far too well to still be underrated this off-season, Meadows is setting up to be in perfect buy territory with a .699 OPS in 37 games. He has a 89.3 MPH EV, 18.3 degree launch, 29 ft/sec sprint, 24% whiff%, and 11.7% BB%. And to top it all off, his at least above average CF defense should keep him in the lineup even when Riley Greene gets healthy. That is a recipe for tons of fantasy goodness, and you might be able to acquire him for barely anything this off-season. His 293 NFBC ADP shows his perceived value to fantasy upside could be as wide as anyone’s right now. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 79/23/76/.248/.328/.432/24
144) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.8 – Keith more than hinted at a big breakout in 2022 with a 150 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, but a shoulder injury cut the explosion short, and even though he made it back to dominate the AFL (1.004 OPS in 19 games), the hype was still relatively subdued last off-season. Well, the explosion continued right into 2023, and this time he did it in the upper minors with a 163 wRC+ and 14 homers in 59 games at Double-A, followed up by a 119 wRC+ and 13 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, and the hit tool is at least above average. He’s one of the most complete prospect hitters in the game, and while I already assumed he was going to break camp with the team, it’s now a foregone conclusion with him signing a guarantied 6 year extension with the club.. 2024 Projection: 74/24/81/.258/.329/.445/2 Prime Projection: 89/29/92/.276/.352/.480/3
145) Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 31.4 – An elbow and back injury delayed the start of Rodon’s season until July, and while there were glimpses of him regaining his old form, it was mostly a straight disaster with a 6.85 ERA and 22.4%/9.8% K%/BB% in 64.1 IP. His finish to the season was the most concerning as his velocity was way down, and he gave up 8 earned runs without recording a single out in his final outing. If you’re a glass half full person, you can look at this as a lost season due to the injuries and expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2024, but if you’re a glass half empty person, you are looking at him like a ticking time bomb, especially with his injury history. I’m the type of person who looks at that glass and sees the water in the middle (I live in the gray), which is how I would value Rodon for next year. 2024 Projection: 9/3.57/1.20/160 in 140 IP
146) Bailey Ober MIN, RHP, 28.2 – Ober is the discount, less hyped version of Joe Ryan, and quite frankly, there is a case to be made that Ober is better than Ryan. Ober is an elite control pitcher (5% BB%) with a plus 91.3 MPH 4-seamer that put up a 27.7% whiff% and was the 21st most valuable 4-seamer in baseball (200 PA min). Like Ryan, his stuff gets hit generally hard with a 9.6% Barrel% and 20 degree launch, so he will also be at the mercy of the homer gods. What makes the case for Ober to be better than Ryan is that his secondaries are better. His changeup is better than Ryan’s splitter with a .263 xwOBA and 29.8% whiff%, and his breaking balls are a little better than Ryan’s too, although they are still mediocre. Ober’s 28.7% whiff% is better than Ryan’s 26.8% whiff%, so don’t be surprised if their strikeout rates aren’t far off from each other next year. I would still take Ryan first because of the tick better fastball which they both heavily rely on, but if I’m being brutally honest, it’s not far off from a coin flip overall. 2024 Projection: 11/3.76/1.13/169 in 160 IP
147) Jhoan Duran MIN, Closer, 26.3 – My mind is blown that Duran was actually able to add velocity to his 100.8 MPH fastball from 2022. It sat 101.8 MPH in 2023. I’m kinda speechless. The 35.8% whiff% on the pitch was the 8th best in baseball (50 PA min). He combines that with an elite curve (.184 xwOBA and 45.9% whiff%) and of course, the famous elite splitter (negative 14 degree launch). It all led to a 2.45 ERA with a 32.9%/9.8% K%/BB% in 62.1 IP. He saved only 27 games because he wasn’t quite used as a traditional closer in the 1st half, but by the 2nd half he was basically a one inning traditional closer, so I think those save totals will rise in 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/2.63/1.07/73/27 in 55 IP Update: Will start the year on the IL with an oblique strain, an while those can linger, it doesn’t worry me like an arm injury. This shouldn’t change his dynasty value all that much
148) Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 30.0 – Diaz almost returned from March knee surgery in September, which makes me pretty confident he will be 100% in 2024. Any major surgery adds risk, but it’s not like it’s his elbow or shoulder. I’m treating him like the elite of the elite closer he is with a ridiculous 50.2% K% in 2022 on the back of a 99.1 MPH fastball and 90.8 MPH slider. If there is any slight discount to be had because of the injury, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.59/1.00/105/33 saves in 60 IP
149) Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – I named Westburg one of my Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Targets (Patreon), because there is no better time to go after a former top prospect than when they have a lukewarm MLB debut. Westburg had only 3 homers, 4 steals, and a .715 OPS in his 68 game debut, but it’s the individual components of the underlying numbers that make me so excited. He crushed the ball with a 90.2/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he had a strong 13.4 degree launch, he has plus speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, he had no contact issues with a 25.8% whiff%, and he didn’t chase with an almost dead average 28.4% Chase%. To top it all off, he was a plus defensive player at both 2B and 3B. That is a pretty Teflon combination of skills to have. He proved his superiority at Triple-A too with 18 homers, 6 steals, a .295 BA and a 131 wRC+ in 67 games. While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night. 2024 Projection: 78/23/74/.269/.330/.448/14 Prime Projection: 89/26/86/.277/.342/.471/16
150) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6
151) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – Merrill did everything you could have asked of him in 2023. Most importantly, he brought his GB% way down from 59.6% at Single-A to 48.6% at High-A and 33.5% at Double-A. It resulted in 15 homers in 114 total games. His already strong contact rates got even better with a 12.1% K%, and he proved all of his skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .273/.338/.444 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 11.8%/8.5% K%/BB% in 46 games at Double-A. I’m still not seeing a monster power/speed combo, which is why I wasn’t the highest guy on him last off-season, but a few seasons of .300/20/20 doesn’t seem like that much of a reach. He’s set to break camp with San Diego as their starting CF. 2024 Projection: 76/15/68/.266/.315/.418/17 Prime Projection: 84/20/81/.283/.338/.451/20
152) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 21.1 – Baby Bonds scared us all for a minute there with a .677 OPS in his first 27 games at High-A coming off a season ending meniscus tear in 2022, but he was back to his dominant self after that with a .927 OPS, 14 homers, 18 steals, and a 27.3%/20.7% K%/BB% in his final 78 games. He finished the season with a stupendous 145 wRC+ in 99 games. He has at least plus power, the ability to lift the ball, speed, and elite on base skills. The only concern is the hit tool, but some of those issues are surely due to his extreme patience. This is truly elite dynasty upside, especially in an OBP league or 6+ cat league, and I think he’s still on the underrated side. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 94/29/89/.252/.361/.490/18
153) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10 – At this point, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Ethan Salas broke camp with the big league club this spring 😉 (I think I’m just joking) … San Diego flew him through the minors at absolutely unprecedented rates. He made his pro debut at Single-A as a fucking 16 year old!!! Is that even legal? And the even crazier thing is that he dominated with a 122 wRC+, 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. SD then got a little too nutty by promoting him all the way up to Double-A to close out the season where he struggled with a 51 wRC+ in 9 games. He struggled at High-A before that too with a 35 wRC+ in 9 games. Regardless, what Salas did at Single-A for his age is truly mind blowing, and I hesitate to put a cap on what his ultimate upside could be. It might be crazy to say his ceiling is one of the greatest catchers of all time, but with how crazy San Diego handled him this year, let’s just all jump aboard the crazy train. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/29/92/.278/.362/.505/10
154) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 19.8 – The biggest issue with Basallo has nothing to do with him. It’s that Adley isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And with Baltimore trying to build a Tampa Bay North situation, I don’t think they are going to feel pressured to trade him either. His bat will profile just fine at 1B, but now we’re talking about competition with Coby Mayo and possibly Heston Kjerstad too. Maybe I’m just borrowing trouble a bit too much, because Basallo looks like he has a special bat. He’s a built up 6’3” with a treacherous lefty swing that is made to do damage, slashing .313/.404/.551 with 20 homers, 12 steals, and a 94/61 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Single-A and High-A. Four of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 220 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter with power, contact, and patience. And he did all of that as an 18 year old for most of the season. If defense wasn’t a slight issue (he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher either), I would likely be even higher on him, but he has the type of bat where maybe you should just completely ignore it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/95/.272/.354/.517/5
155) Max Clark DET, OF, 19.4 – Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. After dominating rookie ball with a 146 wRC+ in 12 games, he got slowed down a bit at Single-A with a 73 wRC+ and 29.4% K% in 11 games, but he still had a .353 OBP, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.278/.347/.433/33
156) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38
157) Xander Bogaerts SDP, SS, 31.6 – Bogaerts went from one of the best hitter’s parks to one of the worst, and while his numbers unsurprisingly took a hit with a 6 year low in wRC+ (120) and BA (.285), he was still quite productive, falling just one homer and one steal short of a 20/20 season. The problem is, he got majorly lucky with a .343 wOBA vs. .318 xwOBA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard with a 87.6 MPH EV, he doesn’t lift it with a 7.6 degree launch, and he’s slowing down with a career worst top 57% sprint speed. With a solid vet like him, I don’t like to read too much into the underlying numbers if the surface stats were strong, but the major ballpark downgrade and advancing age makes me think there could have been more hidden decline than on the surface. He was a sell for me last off-season (I actually predicted he would hit 19 homers with a .288 BA and he hit 19 homers with a .285 BA), and he remains a sell for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 86/19/69/.282/.351/.443/16
158) Isaac Paredes TBR, 1B/3B, 25.1 – Statcast is King, until a player like Paredes comes along and busts up the whole system. Or maybe he’s just the exception that proves the rule (does anybody know what this means, or is it just a fun thing to say?). This is his 2nd year in a row of outdoing his underlying Statcast numbers, and this year with the juicier ball, he blew the underlying numbers away. He had a .362 wOBA vs. .314 xwOBA. It was the third highest differential amongst qualified hitters behind TJ Friedl and Jose Altuve. He had a well below average 86.9 MPH EV and 5.9% Barrel%, and he still hit 31 homers in 143 games. The trick to his success is that he lifts the ball a ton with a 22.2 degree launch, he makes a lot of contact with a 18.2% K%, he pulls the ball an extreme amount with a 54.5% Pull%, and he plays in a top 8 ballpark for righty homers. It’s like he found the loophole to hitting homers with below average power. I still sense 2023 was the high end of what he’s capable of, and the extreme flyball profile hurts his BA with a .250 BA in 2023 and a career .229 BA in 1,145 PA, but we’ve seen Jose Altuve maintain consistent success with a pretty similar profile, so maybe doubting the success at all is the wrong way to play it. 2024 Projection: 81/27/86/.243/.340/.458/1
159) Andres Gimenez CLE, 2B, 25.7 – Gimenez’ EV ticked up in 2022 and it led to a huge season with a 142 wRC+, giving hope he would cement himself as a true young star in 2023, but that wasn’t in the cards. The EV tanked to career worst by far levels with a 84.8 MPH EV that was in the bottom 1% of the league. It led to a below average 97 wRC+ and .297 xwOBA. The good news is that he still managed to have a good season with 15 homers, 30 steals, and a .251 BA. His 5.5% Barrel% was the 2nd best mark of his career, so it seems like a good bet to assume the EV will rise in 2024 to at least career norms. He also took advantage of the new baserunning rules with his 29.2 ft/sec sprint speed, and he’s a great defensive player, so his playing time is locked in. Other than the EV, the main thing preventing me from ranking him higher is his extreme 40% chase% and 5.2% BB%. Hitting the ball weakly and chasing is not a great combo. I certainly feel the tug to buy into the fantasy friendly profile, but I’m concerned he is just not a very good hitter. 2024 Projection: 75/15/63/.257/.320/.411/27
160) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 28.7 – Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in early October and will miss all of 2024. His lack of big swing and miss finally caught up to him in 2023 with a lackluster 4.14 ERA and 19.8% K% in 184.2 IP. He was starting to look more like himself in the 2nd half with a 3.04 ERA in his final 77 IP, but the 19.9% K% was still on the low side. His stuff was as huge as ever with a 98 MPH fastball, his whiff% was right at career averages at 25.2%, and so was his control with a 6.3% BB%, so it seems like this was just a down year. I’ve never really been willing to pay up full price for him because of his modest strikeout totals, and the Tommy John surgery tacks on a healthy dose of risk, but considering his age and stuff, I would bet on him getting back to prime form in 2025-26. 2024 Projection: OUT
161) Yandy Diaz TBR, 1B, 32.5 – Yandy finally put those popcorn muscles to good use by jacking out a career high by far 22 homers in 137 games. He didn’t do it by improving his launch with a still very low 5.7 degree launch, he did it by getting even stronger with a career high 93.4 MPH EV. It’s a good reminder that if you can’t improve your weaknesses, make your strengths even stronger. It was good for a .384 xwOBA that was in the top 5% of the league. The extremely low launch and 0 speed (0 steals), still makes me hesitant to go too hard for him as I don’t love buying BA first guys (.330 BA with a .301 xBA), but he has a career 132 wRC+ and had a 164 wRC+ this year, so how low can you rank one of the best hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 93/19/76/.308/.392/.467/2
162) Teoscar Hernandez LAD, OF, 31.6 – Teoscar’s numbers very predictably took a hit going to the very worst ballpark for hitters in baseball in 2023. His wRC+ dropped from 130 to 105, but all of his underlying numbers showed he is still in his prime, so I’m betting on a bounce back in 2024. He had a .336 xwOBA (.317 wOBA), 13.8% Barrel%, 91.3 MPH EV, and 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed. The Dodgers ballpark plays neutral overall and is one of the best for homers. I called him “a good buy low target for a win now team” prior to signing with LA, and now he’s getting a major ballpark and lineup upgrade, although this signing with likely raise his price considerably. 2024 Projection: 76/29/90/.260/.315/.478/9
163) Sonny Gray STL, RHP, 34.5 – In Spring Training, Gray blamed his injury filled 2022 on not being prepared for the season due to the lockout, and he clearly wasn’t BS’ing with him throwing an 8 year high 184 IP in 2023. He put up a pitching line of 2.79/1.15/24.5%/7.3%. His whiff% bounced back in a major way with a 4.1 percentage point increase to 26%, and his velocity ticked back up 0.8 MPH to 92.9 MPH. St. Louis is clearly betting on him being able to keep it up as he enters his mid 30’s with a 3 year, $75 million contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.54/1.19/167 in 170 IP
164) Nick Castellanos PHI, OF, 32.1 – Castellanos is an extremely high chase rate player (41% Chase% and 5.4% BB%), he doesn’t hit the ball especially hard (88.9 MPH EV), he put up a career worst 35.2% whiff%, and he’s leaving his physical prime with a declining sprint speed (bottom 46% of the league). This is not a player I want to take the ride with as he enters his decline years. He put up a good year in 2023 with 29 homers, 11 steals and a .272 BA, so you might want to look into cashing in on him this off-season. I don’t really like calling player’s sells, because if I was a win now team I might be apt to just hold him, but if you want to kick start a rebuild, he would be first on my list to put on the block. 2024 Projection: 74/25/88/.265/.315/.452/8
165) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo got traded to the Yanks, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots, and Tyler O’Neill is in his final year of team control. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29
166) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 25.7 – Don’t be scared off by Brown’s 5.09 ERA in 155.2 IP. Most of the damage came in the 2nd half when he was already at a career high IP total, and his 4.27 xERA is much more representative of the type of year he had with a 26.8%/8.3% K%/BB%. The stuff is big led by a plus 95.7 MPH fastball to go along with an above average curve, below average slider, and a splitter he’s been developing that he should clearly go to more (4.8% usage) with a .194 xwOBA and 37% whiff%. He didn’t go full breakout, but it was a very strong rookie year, and the ingredients are certainly there for him to keep improving. 2024 Projection: 12/3.91/1.27/189 in 170 IP
167) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP
168) Jordan Montgomery FRA, LHP, 31.3 – I was relatively high on Montgomery last off-season, ranking him 142nd overall, and he delivered with a pitching line of 3.20/1.19/166/48 in 188.2 IP. Similarly talented plus control pitchers always got more respect than him, but that will change after his strong season. He throws 4 average to above pitches (sinker, change, curve, 4 seamer), the secondaries miss bats, and everything plays up with his plus control (6.2% BB%). 2024 Projection: 10/3.73/1.20/152 in 170 IP
169) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 24.5 – Sheehan didn’t have a standout MLB debut with a 4.92 ERA and a 25.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP, but some of the underlying data is extremely encouraging. Most notably, his 3 secondary pitches were absolutely devastating. The slider put up a .179 xwOBA with a 43.8% whiff%, the changeup put up a .200 xwOBA with a 47.6% whiff%, and the very lightly used sweeper put up a .161 xwOBA with a 41.2% whiff%. His heavily used 95.4 MPH fastball was solid as well with a respectable 20.2% whiff%. His 3.50 xERA looks much better than the surface stats, and he also closed the year out in dominant fashion with a 1.98 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 13.2 IP over 3 outings. His control is below average, but it’s never really been in the major danger zone, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much because of that. And how could you not trust the Dodgers to unlock his full potential in the long run. He showed no joke ace upside in his rookie year, and considering he currently has a NFBC ADP of 249, that tells me he isn’t getting nearly the respect he deserves this off-season. LA bringing Paxton in puts a squeeze on his rotation spot, but they seem to be headed towards a 6 man rotation, and their rotation is very injury prone, so Sheehan should get his innings one way or another. 2024 Projection: 6/3.72/1.23/99 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.18/210 in 175 IP Update: Sheehan is dealing with general soreness and a forearm issue, which knocked him out of the 5th starter job
170) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 24.9 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September 2022, so he should be fully healthy for 2024 assuming he has no setbacks. If you’re going to take the Tommy John discount on pithing prospects, make sure they are elite ones, and Baz is most certainly an elite one. When healthy, he throws 3 potentially double plus pitches in his mid to upper 90’s fastball, slider, and curve, to go along with a developing lesser used changeup. He struggled with control earlier in his pro career, but he improved it to about average levels in 2021 and 2022. That level of stuff with average control screams ace upside. I do think you have to at least take into account the added risk from major elbow surgery, and keep in mind he has a career high of 92 IP, so it might take 3 years before he can truly throw a full top of the rotation workload, assuming he’s actually physically able to do it, but I also understand if you want to ignore all of it for his insane upside. 2024 Projection: 7/3.76/1.19/110 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.11/190 in 160 IP
171) Camilo Doval SFG, Closer, 26.10 – Control was the only thing that could tank Doval, so after putting up a very reasonable 9.3% BB% in 2023, he’s locked in as a safe elite closer option. He had a 2.93 ERA with a 31% K% and 39 saves in 67.2 IP. The stuff is elite with a 99.8 MPH cutter that put up a 30.4% whiff%, a 98 MPH sinker that put up a negative 2 degree launch, and a 88.9 MPH slider that put up a 49.3% whiff%. He could easily end up the top closer in 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/2.85/1.15/83/35 saves in 65 IP
172) Andres Munoz SEA, Closer, 25.2 – Munoz was always an elite closer in waiting, and he didn’t disappoint when he got his opportunity after Sewald got traded at the deadline. He racked up 11 saves with a 2.96 ERA and 30.1%/10.1% K%/BB% in 24.1 IP post deadline. The 99.2 MPH fastball put up a 30.5% whiff%, the 98.4 MPH sinker put up a negative 22 degree launch, and the slider was elite with a 48.3% whiff%. He missed 2 months with a shoulder injury earlier in the year, and he battled a bit of a hip injury at the end of the year, so you always have to keep injuries in mind with a young flamethrower like this. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a candidate to finish as the top fantasy closer in 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/2.90/1.09/84/30 saves in 60 IP
173) Emmanuel Clase CLE, Closer, 26.0 – Clase led the league in saves for the 2nd year in a row with 44. Saves are a hard category to predict, but my money would be on him to at least be among the league leaders again. Strikeouts are where he has an issue as his strikeout rate tanked 7.2 percentage points to a below average 21.2%. The slider was the biggest culprit with a 11.4 percentage point drop to 31.3%. He also gave up a career worst 88.4 MPH EV against (86.3 MPH in 2022). It led to a down year with a 3.22 ERA. With relievers and small samples, variance is just part of the game. The stuff is still elite with a 99.1 MPH cutter, so I’m assuming he will bounce back in 2024, or at least split the difference. 2024 Projection: 4/2.76/1.00/71/40 saves in 70 IP
174) David Bednar PIT, Closer, 29.6 – The fear of Bednar getting traded has been real the last couple years, but Pittsburgh is a team on the rise, and he’s under contract through 2026, so I think we have to let that fear go (famous last words ha). He throws 3 plus pitches in his 96.6 MPH fastball that notched a 30.3% whiff%, a curve that notched a 40.5% whiff%, and a splitter that notched a 33.6% whiff%. The guy is a whiff machine and he does it with above average control. 2024 Projection: 3/2.78/1.08/83/36 saves in 64 IP
175) Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Ozuna showed what can happen if you ignore the underlying numbers too much, and O’Neill has significantly underperformed his underlying numbers for 2 straight years. He put up a .338 xwOBA vs. 313 wOBA in 2023 and a .331 xwOBA vs. 307 wOBA in 2022. He actually improved his hit tool with a career best 25.2% K% and 27.8% whiff%, and his 10.5% BB% and 25.3% Chase% were also career bests. The power is still big with a 89.2/94.3 MPH AVG/FB EV and 15 degree launch and the speed is plus with a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed. The biggest concern is that his body could be breaking down earlier than expected with a body building like physique, and he’s battled injuries for 2 straight years now, missing almost 3 months with a back injury mid-season, among other injuries. The profile isn’t without risk, but there is still big upside lurking in here, and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot than Boston’s elite hitter’s park. I would caution against selling O’Neill too low. 2024 Projection: 75/26/79/.249/.330/.462/14
176) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 27.2 – Hayes finally raised his launch to a respectable 13.2 degrees, but it still only resulted in 15 homers, and his speed dropped off hard with a below average 27.1 ft/sec sprint and only 10 steals. The plate approach took a step back too with a 5.3% BB%. The hit tool is good, but it’s not elite, the power ticked up, but it’s still average homer power at best, and his formerly best asset, speed, has been watered down to basically nothing with everyone running wild. The one thing he can still hang his hit on is that he crushed the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV, but beyond that, the profile looks pretty boring. 2024 Projection: 78/19/72/.270/.323/.441/16
177) Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 26.7 – Nootbaar is a better real life hitter and in OBP leagues than in 5×5 BA leagues, but he can still provide solid across the board production. The plate approach is double plus (19.7%/14.3% K%/BB%), he hits it hard with an 8.8% Barrel%, and he has above average speed with a 27.8 ft/sec sprint. It resulted in 14 homers, 11 steals, and a .261 BA in 117 games. His 49.7% GB% is too high to take full advantage of his plus raw power, but he’s been better at lifting it in the past, so I wouldn’t rule out future improvement. He also struggled vs. lefties with a .635 OPS, but his .323 OBP isn’t bad, and he’s an above average defensive player, so I wouldn’t automatically assume he’s headed for a full blown platoon role. 2024 Projection: 84/18/68/.268/.369/.441/16
178) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 22.2 – I get being scared off by the very lackluster power/speed numbers Matos put up in his 253 PA MLB debut. Hit he hit only 2 homers and stole only 3 bags. Considering this was always his possible downside, the debut didn’t assuage any of those fears, but I’m still betting on the power/speed combo getting to a high enough level to make Matos an impact fantasy player. The contact rates are double plus with a 8.1% K% and .331 BA in 63 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. It then almost completely transferred over to the majors with a 13% K%. The second he stepped onto a pro field back in 2019 as a 17 year old the contact rates were near elite, and they were again near elite the second he stepped on a MLB field as a 21 year old. That is a prodigy level feel to hit. He massively improved his plate approach with a 9.8% BB% in the minors, and those gains also carried over to the bigs with a 7.9% BB% and an above average 25.4% chase%. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard, but he’s also not in the true danger territory with a 88.7 MPH EV at Triple-A and 87.1 MPH EV in the majors. There is no guarantee those numbers will rise considerably, but he was only 21 and he has a legitimately electric swing, so I’m betting on them rising. He’s not a burner, but he has above average speed and he’s never been afraid to run with very good stolen base rates. The Jung Hoo Lee signing blocks his path to playing time in the short run, but I don’t think he’ll have any issue finding playing time long term. 2024 Projection: 44/9/35/.271/.327/.410/8 Prime Projection: 88/20/72/.282/.340/.442/15
179) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 28.10 – Bieber went down with elbow inflammation after his July 9th start, but he returned for 2 starts at the end of the season where he looked like himself, so that at least eases some, but not all, of the injury concern headed into 2024. His performance is really the biggest concern as his skills were in clear decline before going down with the injury. His K% dropped like a stone to a well below average 20.1%, his 91.6 MPH EV against was a career worst, and so was his 4.83 xERA. His 91.3 MPH fastball got demolished with only a 9.3% whiff%, and his slider put up a career worst 32.7% whiff%. The control is still good with a 6.7% BB%, and he can be successful with a plus feel for the art of pitching, but a mid-rotation fantasy starter is a more realistic expectation for him than the ace he used to be. 2024 Projection: 9/3.70/1.20/148 in 160 IP Update: Bieber’s velocity is up in spring, which definitely gives hope a bounce back is coming
180) Aaron Civale TBR, RHP, 28.10 – Did Tampa get their hands on Steve Urkel’s potion that turned him into Stefan Urquelle? Because what they turned the boring, pitch to contact Aaron Civale into overnight is nothing short of magic. He went from a guy with a 19%/7.2% K%/BB% in 77 IP with Cleveland, to a guy with a 29.3%/5.6% K%/BB% in 45.1 IP with Tampa. I mean, what the hell? I’ve never seen such an instant transformation ever I don’t think. And the fact that he has a 5.36 ERA with Tampa makes it even better for our purposes, because it should open the buy window just enough to get him at a great value this off-season. He’s now someone with near ace upside and there is no way his trade/draft price will be even close to that. Zack Eflin is a similar pitcher and a perfect example of the Tampa bump being legit. Durability is likely his biggest issue with 124.1 IP his career high, so don’t expect him to rack up innings. 2024 Projection: 10/3.61/1.15/160 in 150 IP
181) Ryan Pepiot TBR, RHP, 26.0 – The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. When trying to identify breakouts, you look for real skills improvements in the underlying numbers, and Pepiot’s skill improvement is as easy as it gets to identify. His control took a huge step forward. He had a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 MLB IP in 2022 vs. a 3.1% BB% in 42 IP in 2023. And it’s not just the majors. The BB% sat at 9.8% at Triple-A in 2022 vs. 5.4% this year. That is clear as day. That is a jump from below average to elite, and even if he can’t keep up the elite levels, the fact it’s this good gives confidence it is a legit skills jump. It’s resulted in all 3 of his pitches (fastball, changeup, slider) being above average and getting whiffs. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value. 2024 Projection: 10/3.88/1.21/155 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.63/1.14/190 in 175 IP
182) Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 25.7 – Pfaadt was having one of those truly miserable MLB debuts that makes you completely forget about what you liked about a player in the first place. He put up a 9.82 ERA with a 21/10 K/BB in his first 25.2 IP and then was sent back down to the minors. But top pitching prospects failing early in spectacular fashion is nothing new, and just like many of the ones that came before him, it was just a matter of time before he found his footing. He got called back up a month later and put up a 4.22 ERA with a 73/16 K/BB in 70.1 IP the rest of the way. He then took it up a notch in the playoffs with a 3.27 ERA and 29.9%/5.7% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He’s thrived throughout his entire pro career by having plus control of a 93.7 MPH fastball, to go along with a plus sweeper (.245 xwOBA), an improving changeup, a solid curve, and a sinker that keeps the ball on the ground. None of his pitches are truly standout, so I hesitate to put that #1/2 starter upside on him, but everything plays up because of his plus control, and we saw plenty of plus control pitchers have great years in 2023. I’m projecting Pfaadt as a #2/3 type. 2024 Projection: 11/3.92/1.21/174 in 170 IP
183) Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 26.2 – A stress reaction in Lodolo’s left tibia ended his season after just 7 starts. He’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024, and leg injuries aren’t nearly as worrisome as arm injuries, but he had a setback when trying to return in 2023, so I do think some extra injury risk has to be taken into account. When healthy, he’s put up near ace level K/BB numbers with a 29.3%/8.1% K%/BB% in 137.2 career IP. He’s a nightmare to face at 6’6” with an almost sidearm lefty delivery that he fires an at least plus curve and a mid 90’s fastball from. The breakout is simply inevitable if he can stick on the mound, and his inflated 6.29 ERA in 2023 should keep the price low. 2024 Projection: 9/3.78/1.23/162 in 140 IP
184) Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 29.9 – Helsley seems in line for the full time closer role in 2024, but the Cards always like to sneak Giovanny Gallegos in there too, so I would expect Gallegos to steal a few saves here and there. It won’t matter though, because Helsley is dominant enough to overcome a handful of saves shaved off the top with a 2.46 ERA and 35.6%/11.6% K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. He throws a 99.7 MPH fastball to go along with an elite slider (52.2% whiff%) and elite curve (.144 xwOBA). His control is spotty, but plenty of relievers thrive with similar control issues, and a forearm strain knocked him out almost 3 months mid-season, but he looked healthy when he returned. He’s not without risk, but the elite upside is worth it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.65/1.09/83/30 saves in 60 IP
185) Sean Murphy ATL, C, 29.6 – Murphy left the desolate ghost team that is the Oakland Athletics and immediately broke out with an elite .395 xwOBA that was in the top 4% of the league. His power exploded to near elite levels with a 91.5/96.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, 16.1% Barrel%, and 114.7 Max EV (top 6% of the league). The two problems are that he completely tanked in the 2nd half with a .585 OPS in 41 games vs. a .999 OPS in 67 1st half games (all the underlying power numbers dropped off too), and Atlanta rested him an extreme amount with only 108 games played all year. Travis d’Arnaud is too good of a player to be a lightly used back up, and there was no reason for Atlanta to run Murphy into the ground. d”Arnaud is going to be 35 years old next year and he only had a 83 wRC+ in 2023, so I would bet on Murphy getting more run in 2024, but considering the 2nd half drop off, I still don’t think you can value him as a truly elite fantasy catcher. 2024 Projection: 71/24/75/.257/.348/.475/1
186) Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 29.5 – The new dimensions at Camden don’t seem to be fazing Santander too much. He posted another strong contact/power season with 28 homers, a 119 wRC+ and a .257 BA in 153 games. The underlying numbers back it up as usual with a 90.6 MPH EV, 20.2 degree launch, and a 23.2%/8.4% K%/BB%. 2024 Projection: 79/29/91/.248/.323/.467/4
187) Christian Walker ARI, 1B, 33.0 – Walker not only backed up his huge season in 2022 with 33 homers and a .258 BA, he also surprisingly decided to take advantage of the new stolen base rules with 11 steals. When a guy like Walker can pop 11 bags out of nowhere, it’s a reminder we have to recalibrate how many bases speed first players need to steal to be truly worth their price. A high teens to low 20’s guy is really not that impressive anymore. Once again, the underlying numbers backed up Walker’s big season with a 19.2% K%, 11.4% Barrel%, and 15.8 degree launch. He was still underrated last year, but you won’t be getting much of a discount this year. 2024 Projection: 79/31/92/.250/.330/.485/7
188) Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 24.10 – Abbott took the majors by storm in his first 10 starts at the level with with a 1.90 ERA and 66/19 K/BB in 61.2 IP, but the league caught up with him in the 2nd half with a 6.42 ERA and 54/25 K/BB in his final 47.2 IP. The stuff is solid, but not truly standout with a 92.7 MPH fastball, he got hit very hard with a 91.2 MPH EV against, and the control is below average with a 9.6% BB%. Those were some of the reasons I wasn’t fully buying into Abbott when he was crushing the minors, but I don’t want to make the same mistake for his 2nd time through the majors. He still had a strong debut overall with a 3.87 ERA and 26.1% K% in 109.1 IP. He has a legit 4 pitch mix where the sweeper notched an elite .182 xwOBA against, and the changeup missed bats with a 39.4% whiff%. He definitely has the collection of skills to be an impact fantasy starter, I’m just not sure I would put top of the rotation expectations on him, especially in Cincinnati. 2024 Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/187 in 170 IP
189) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 30.3 – Buxton feels like he’s 30 going on 35 with all of the injuries he’s accrued in his career. 2023 was no different with only 85 games played. He battled a knee injury for most of the year that ended up requiring arthroscopic surgery in October, along with rib and hamstring injuries that landed him on the IL during the season. He’s supposedly fully healed from the knee surgery, but it will likely make him a little more hesitant on the bases, and he was already a hesitant base stealer despite his plus speed. The power is double plus with a 97.3 MPH FB/LD EV and 20.1 degree launch, which is a skill that tends to age well, but it comes with a terrible batting average (.207 BA and 31.4% K%). He’s a very low BA slugger with injury risk, and I don’t think you can count on him running enough to make up for that killer BA. 2024 Projection: 72/28/72/.229/.313/.460/10
190) James Outman LAD, OF, 26.10 – Outman has a plus power/speed combo with extreme hit tool risk, but I’m concerned the power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough to stick your neck out for considering the risk. He hit 23 homers with a 87.9/91.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he stole 16 bags in 567 PA. Good, but not great, and the swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 36.6% whiff%. He also struggles vs. lefties with a .665 OPS, giving him platoon risk. He’s a well above average defensive centerfielder, and he still got on base vs. lefties (.357 OBP), so the skills are there to play nearly everyday even if the BA dips. It was also only his rookie year and he managed a .248 BA (.228 xBA), so I’m certainly not down on him, but it’s the type of profile I would want to fall into my lap, rather than one I’m truly going after. 2024 Projection: 81/25/72/.239/.338/.440/15
191) Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.1 – Garcia has the Holy Trinity of hitting the ball hard (91.8/95.5 MPH AVG/FB EV), hitting the ball often (19.5% whiff%), and being fast (28.2 ft/sec sprint). If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 1,000 times, good things tend to happen on a baseball field when you have those 3 traits. He’s also a very good defensive player, so there is little worry about playing time. It’s basically the Ketel Marte starter kit, except Garcia runs a lot more. He just needs to raise his launch as he gains experience, just like Marte has done in his career. I named Garcia a target back in my June Target Article, and he remains a major off-season target for me. 2024 Projection: 78/13/69/.278/.335/.408/27
192) Zach Neto LAA, SS, 23.2 – Ranking Neto 3rd overall on my 2023 FYPD Rankings (over the likes of the more highly regarded Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Cam Collier, and Gavin Cross) raised some eyebrows, and my reasoning for it ended up being right on point. I wrote in the 2023 FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “He’s one of those picks where he’ll quickly be contributing for LA and you’ll be scratching your head on why you just didn’t scoop this guy. LA has literally kept the SS position open for him.” The Angels calling up Nolan Schanuel just a month after being drafted makes it look like they handled Neto with kid gloves, but at the time it seemed quite aggressive to call Neto up after just a couple weeks into his first full season of pro ball, surprising even me. He didn’t play particularly well offensively with a 89 wRC+ in 84 games, but the 8.8% Barrel%, 89.1/94.2 MPH FB/LD EV, 14.5 degree launch, and 23.4% K% portends very good things for the future. He’s also a plus defensive SS, so his glove will most certainly keep him on the field. I know Schanuel’s debut overshadows how quickly they called up Neto, but even the fact Neto was able to hold his own was impressive coming from a non major college conference. He’s set up to have an excellent 2024 season. 2024 Projection: 79/20/74/.256/.322/.425/12
193) Kyle Bradish BAL, RHP, 27.7 – I’m a little skeptical of fully buying into Bradish, mostly because of how elite his surface stats were relative to what I think his true talent level is. He put up a pitching line of 2.83/1.04/25%/6.6% in 168.2 IP. That is an ace level pitching line and it’s sure to push his trade value and draft value higher than I would be willing to go. His 3.82 xERA and 3.76 SIERA were both much worse. But I don’t want it to come across that I don’t like him, because he made real improvements in 2023. He threw his bad 4-seam fastball (.433 xwOBA) much less in favor of his plus 95 MPH sinker (.314 xwOBA). And he also threw his above average slider (36.4% whiff%) and curve (35.6% whiff%) more. He did all of that with improved control with a well above average 6.6% BB%. This new pitch mix has me buying into him as a Top 100-ish dynasty asset, but I wouldn’t be willing to go higher than that. 2024 Projection: 11/3.62/1.19/165 in 165 IP Update: Bradish will start the season on the IL with a UCL sprain. He is going to attempt to rehab it and is optimistic he can return in the 1st half of 2024, but this ads a healthy dose of risk, and I already felt he was on the overrated side (although I still liked him)
194) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 23.0 – K/BB is King when it comes to pitchers, and Bradley put up a very impressive 28%/8.5% K%/BB% in 104.2 IP in his MLB debut. That right there is enough to have confidence in him, especially when you combine it with faith in Tampa’s development reputation. He also has big stuff with a 96.1 MPH fastball and 3 legit secondaries in his cutter, curve, and change. The change was elite in limited usage (13.7%) with a .188 xwOBA and 41% whiff%, while the cutter and curve were both mediocre. On the downside, his stuff got hit very hard with a 10.7% Barrel%, 91.2 MPH EV against, and 17.1 degree launch. It led to a 5.59 ERA (4.45 xERA) and 23 homers against. He’s also given up a lot of homers at Triple-A in 2022-23, so homers look to be a legit problem. He got popped with a pec injury which will put him on the IL to start the season. 2024 Projection: 7/3.91/1.29/139 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.63/1.18/180 in 160 IP
195) Chris Sale ATL, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. He’s looked electric in spring, and while being fresh in spring doesn’t mean he can keep it up all season, it’s a great start. 2024 Projection: 11/3.47/1.13/170 in 140 IP
196) Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 27.4 – The injuries cleared up a full time job for India, and he seems to be over the planter fasciitis as well. He bounced back from the classic sophomore slump with 17 homers, 14 steals, and a 20.6%/9.8% K%/BB% in 119 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a career best 89.5 MPH EV, 15.2 degree launch, and a well above average .339 xwOBA. He’s definitely underrated at this point, but his poor defense could still come back to bite him long term. 2024 Projection: 79/20/73/.259/.340/.434/13
197) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B, 19.10 – Just call me Prospectdamus, because I nailed Johnson’s 2023 season in my Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings back in February, writing, “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype with an over 20% K% and under .280 BA. The power/speed numbers will be good though, and he’ll still destroy the level with a 130 wRC+.” … Johnson’s K% was over 20% at 26.7% and his BA was under .280 at .244, but he still destroyed the level with a 141 wRC+, 13 homers and 7 steals in 75 games. He put up almost identical numbers at High-A too with a 142 wRC+ in 30 games. He hits the ball hard, he has a very mature plate approach, and he has some speed. He didn’t hit his ceiling projection, but I would say he still lived up to the hype. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/25/82/.264/.351/.478/15
198) Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 18.1 – I know that nobody really cares/remembers who was “first” on a player. And being “first” on a player is a nebulous concept anyway as I guess the person who was really the first was the one to identify him when he was like an 8 year old probably. And saying you were “first” on a player who signed for $3.2 million might seem like a stretch in hindsight … but having said all that, I was first on Walcott 😉 …. his extremely elite athleticism at 6’4”, 190 pounds jumped off the screen in every video I watched of him last off-season before he was getting even a whisper of real dynasty hype. If you were a Patreon subscriber last off-season, I told you to target this kid in every first year player draft. His hype picked up in a major way later in the off-season, and I ain’t even mad at it, because he deserved the love. Texas knew they had a special kid on their hands too, promoting him to stateside rookie ball after just 9 games in the DSL, and he thrived, slashing .273/.325/.524 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 32.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. The contact rates and plate approach were rough enough to assume that will be an area of his game he needs to work on, but they weren’t so bad considering his age to let it scare you off him. I’m all in on Walcott. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/32/92/.257/.328/.491/23
199) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 20.4 – I think we’ve all been spoiled by how many players came back with little to no rust from major shoulder surgery (Carroll, Lawler, Jung), and unfortunately, that wasn’t the case for Jones. He put up a .490 OPS with 0 homers in his first 25 games, and he battled hamstring and quad injuries all year too. But he finally settled down and showed glimpses of his special talent to close out the season, slashing .339/.438/.500 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.5%/15.1% K%/BB% in 16 games at Single-A. Obviously it would have been preferrable for him to light the world on fire all season, but this year was his very first taste of pro ball, he was coming off major shoulder surgery, and he dealt with multiple lower body injuries. I would be very careful about judging such a special talent like this too harshly under those conditions, and he showed what’s to come at the end of the year. He needs to learn how to get the ball in the air more as his groundball rates were very high, but he isn’t the type of player who needs an extreme launch to thrive with double plus speed, a relatively mature plate approach, and plus raw power potential. Tack on plus CF defense, and Jones is a high floor player with all the upside still present from his draft year. Buy low if you can. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 91/24/83/.268/.344/.476/31
200) Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’1”, 195 pound Emerson had an electric pro debut, both statistically and visually. He slashed .374/.496/.550 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.5%/14.9% K%/BB% in 24 games at rookie ball (251 wRC+) and Single-A (147 wRC+). He has an athletic, lightning quick lefty swing that the ball absolutely rockets off of. It’s geared for both power and average. He’s not a true burner, but he has speed and he was perfect on the bases. He’ll also be 18 years old for most of the 2024 season. He checks off almost every box that you look for in a potential elite prospect coming out of the draft (size, power, average, speed, age, sweet swing, production). If you’re drafting in the mid to late 1st round, and all the buzzy names are off the board, you can confidently take Emerson knowing he can easily end up amongst the best in the class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/26/86/.277/.356/.475/15
201) Tommy Edman STL, 2B/SS/OF, 28.11 – Edman didn’t get the stolen base bump, which puts his formerly elite stolen base output more in the double plus range with 27 steals. His BA tanked to .248 in 2023, but it was mostly due to bad luck with a 15.9% K% and 89.1 MPH EV. He hits the ball hard enough where he’s capable of putting together a career type power year with a just a few more flyballs (7.5 degree launch), but it’s not something you can count on, especially after he underwent wrist surgery this off-season in October. The wrist is still acting up, and now he’s expected to start the year on the IL. 2024 Projection: 69/11/51/.262/.318/.400/23
202) Masataka Yoshida BOS, OF, 30.8 – I projected Yoshida’s 2023 numbers at 83/16/65/.281/.342/.428/5 last off-season, and he ended up going 71/15/72/.289/.338/.445/8. He did more or less exactly what I (and most others as well) expected with a plus hit tool (14% K%), some pop (89 MPH EV), and a handful of steals. He wasn’t going to be a difference maker in shallower leagues, but in deeper leagues, a line like that can make a real impact. Keep that in mind for Shota Imanaga and Jung Hoo Lee, two players who project to be good, but not necessarily great, if they are available in your FYPD this off-season. You need to adjust rankings based on your league, contention window, and team needs, especially for international vets. This was Yoshida’s first year playing in a new country, let alone with a new team, so the expectation should be for him to keep improving over the next couple seasons as he gets more comfortable. The upside might not be a huge, but a .290/20/10 season is well within reach. 2024 Projection: 81/17/76/.283/.347/.440/8
203) Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 26.0 – Vaughn raised his launch angle to a career high 11.2 degrees, and while it didn’t result in a huge power season with 21 homers in 152 games, it’s a very good sign for the future. And he’s not the type who needs a huge launch to have a big power season with a 90.6/95.7 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s always had a good feel to hit with a 21% K%, so as Vaughn heads into his age 26 year old season, it sure seems like he’s headed in the direction of leveling up. 2024 Projection: 76/24/87/.273/.330/.451/1
204) Taylor Ward LAA, OF, 30.3 – Ward’s season ended on July 29th when he got hit in the face from a pitch thrown by Alek Manoah. Monoah was so horrible in 2023 that he was a danger to himself and others out there. Ward got off to a slow start to the season with a .607 OPS in his first 51 games, but he dominated after that, slashing .288/.377/.541 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.6%/10.6% K%/BB% in 46 games. He had a 90.7 MPH EV, 14.3 degree launch, and a 19.6%/9.5% K%/BB% overall. This is his third year in a row of being a complete, well above average hitter. The floor is high, and the potential is certainly in here to have a true beastly season. 2024 Projection: 84/25/81/.267/.350/.469/8
205) Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 31.6 – Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in late April, which makes July the conservative estimate for his return date. He was in the midst of fully backing up his 2022 breakout with a 0.56 ERA and 43.6%/7.6% K%/BB% in 16 IP before going down with the injury. He’s not a huge stuff guy with a 91.7 MPH fastball, so considering control is usually the last thing to come back from Tommy John, I would be hesitant about him picking right up from where he left off in 2024, but long term, I like taking the Tommy John discount on him. He wasn’t established enough for his owner to demand an extremely high price, but he was established enough for me to feel comfortable targeting him. 2024 Projection: 4/3.68/1.17/72 in 70 IP
206) Brandon Woodruff FRA, RHP, 31.2 – Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery in October and is likely to miss all or the vast majority of the 2024 season. I love buying the Tommy John surgery discount with pitchers, but shoulder injuries scare me much more. He was non-tendered by Milwaukee, so it will be revealing what kind of contract he ends up with. MLB teams will obviously look over the medicals extensively, so we’ll essentially see exactly what kind of odds they are willing to place on him returning to full health in 2025 and beyond. When completely healthy, he is a true ace with a 2.28 ERA and 29.2%/5.9% K%/BB% in 67 IP in 2023, so even with the shoulder injury, I wouldn’t want to completely count him out. 2024 Projection: OUT
207) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 21.0 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all, or almost all of 2024. As I wrote in the Baz blurb, if you’re going to take the Tommy John discount on pithing prospects, make sure they are elite ones, and Painter is most certainly an elite one. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA) in 2022. He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. The timing of his elbow injury in spring training and the ultimate decision to get surgery in July makes it that he will miss two entire seasons. I do think it is prudent to factor in at least some extra injury/performance risk, but if you want to assume he picks right back up from where he left off without any setbacks, I can see ranking him at least 50 spots higher. 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.08/215 in 180 IP
208) Max Muncy LAD, 3B, 33.7 – Classic 3 true outcome slugger with 36 homers, a .212 BA, and .333 OBP. He’s not a good defensive player, he’s getting up there in age, and he struggled vs. lefties with a .642 OPS, so a platoon DH role could be coming in the not too distant future. 2024 Projection: 87/33/91/.228/.345/.480/2
209) Mason Miller OAK, RHP, 25.7 – Injury risk is why I’ve been hesitant to truly put Mason Miller in the elite pitching prospect tier (he missed 4 months with a UCL sprain in 2023), and it seems Oakland has the same concerns as their GM announced Miller will start 2024 in the bullpen, and likely in the closer role eventually. If I owned Miller, I wouldn’t even be mad at that outcome. Back in the day I was the high guy by far on Josh Hader, and while I was disappointed he never got a chance to prove he could be an ace, he’s been a mainstay on my fantasy team for 7 years. No injuries. No missed time. Just easy dominance that puts your mind at rest about scurrying for closers every year. Miller has the stuff to be in that elite closer tier with a 98.3 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a .207 xwOBA and 47.1% whiff% in 33.1 IP over 10 outings in his MLB debut. They haven’t ruled out a return to the rotation down the line, but I wouldn’t count on that as you plan for the future of your dynasty team. 2024 Projection: 4/3.25/1.14/88/20 saves in 65 IP
210) Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – San Francisco signed Lee to a 6 year, $113 million contract, which is definitely an eye opening amount, but he earned that contract for his real life baseball value, and not for his fantasy value. He had extremely high groundball rates in Korea with a 59.2% GB% in 2023, and he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. He hit only 6 homers in 86 games. He has speed, but he’s not a true burner, and he hasn’t been a good base stealer. He was 6 for 9 in 2023 and has a career high of 13 steals in 20 attempts. He also fractured his ankle in July which required season ending surgery, so that adds even more risk to his future steal projections. And to top it all off, he landed in one of the very worst hitter’s parks in the league. He’s truly elite at what he does well though, and that is hit for average. He had a 5.9%/12.7% K%/BB% in 2023, and he has a career .340 BA. He was a baseball prodigy with baseball bloodlines, dominating the KBO from the time he was 18 years old with a sweet lefty swing. He’s not a small guy at 6’0”, and there is most certainly room to tack on mass at a relatively skinny 171 pounds. He has a little bit of that Ichiro feel to him, where if he wanted to hit for more power, he would, and he did crack 23 homers in 142 games in 2022, so it’s not like he’s been some light hitter in his career. It’s also possible he runs a lot more with the new stolen base rules in MLB. It might take him a couple years to get fully acclimated like it has Ha-Seong Kim, but once he does, a .300/15/15 season looks well within reach, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 20/20. He might be more valuable in real life than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be a very good fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 81/11/51/.285/.341/.401/12 Prime Projection: 93/15/62/.305/.371/.437/15
211) Evan Phillips LAD, Closer, 29.7 – Phillips dodged the Hader bullet, and now it’s all systems go for him. He took over LA’s undisputed closer role by late June, and he earned it with a 2.05 ERA and 28.2%/5.6% K%/BB% in 61.1 IP. He has an elite sweeper (.195 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%), a double plus 96.4 MPH fastball (.279 xwOBA with a 30.8% whiff%), a 95.5 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground (negative 1 degree launch), and a solid 93.1 MPH cutter. It’s his 2nd year in a row of dominance, and his control is now in the near elite range. 2024 Projection: 4/2.89/0.98/72/30 saves in 63 IP
212) Devin Williams MIL, Closer, 29.6 – Williams’ 37.7% K% was 4th best in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 40 IP, and his 85.9 MPH EV against was in the top 6% of the league. He did it on the back of an elite changeup that was the third most valuable changeup in all of baseball. His 4 seamer was excellent too with a 41.8% whiff% which led the league on 4 seamers that were thrown at least 300 times. It all led to a miniscule 1.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 36 saves in 58.2 IP. The only blemish is the 12.1% BB%, but that seems silly to even bring up considering how utterly dominant he is. He’s in the elite of the elite tier of closers. 2024 Projection: 3/2.68/1.06/45/18 saves in 30 IP Update: Out 3 months with a back injury
213) Pete Fairbanks TBR, Closer, 30.3 – It’s hard to fully trust the Rays, but it does seem like Fairbanks is locked into the closer job. He saved 25 games in 45.1 IP (he missed some time with a forearm and hip injury). The stuff is most certainly worthy of the full time job with a double plus 98.9 MPH fastball and a plus slider. It led to a 2.58 ERA and 37.0%/10.9% K%/BB%. The strikeout rate is likely inflated with a 30.7% whiff%, but even 2 steps back would put him in near elite K% range. As long as Tampa doesn’t go Tampa on us, and as long as he stays healthy (45.1 IP is his MLB career high), Fairbanks should be in the mix for top closer status in 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/2.79/1.03/75/29 saves in 55 IP
214) Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 27.6 – Diaz was much better in the first half (1.80 ERA with a 40.4% K% in 35 IP) than the 2nd half (4.45 ERA with a 20% in 32.1 IP), but nothing really changed in his profile, so I’m leaning towards it being small sample reliever variance. It all evened out to a 3.07 ERA and 30.1%/12.6% K%/BB% in 67.1 IP. The slightly more concerning thing is that the stuff wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as it was in 2022 with his fastball down 1.3 MPH to 94.5 MPH, and it got hit harder too with a 90.2 MPH EV against vs. 86.6 MPH in 2022. The slider also wasn’t as good with the whiff% dropping 7 percentage points to 38%. Some of this feels like slicing and dicing the numbers a little too much, which is why I’m still projecting him as elite, but if he struggles, it’s not like their weren’t some red flags. 2024 Projection: 6/3.02/1.12/85/36 saves in 65 IP
215) Cal Raleigh SEA, C, 27.4 – At the dish, Raleigh has one thing on the mind and one thing only, and that thing is ripping dingers with a 20.3 degree launch and 94.4 MPH FB/LD EV. It resulted in 30 bombs in 145 games which led all catchers by a large margin (Francisco Alverez was 2nd with 25 homers in 124 games). It’s not conducive to a high BA with a .232 BA, but his contact rates took a small step forward with a 27.8% K% and 29.9% whiff%, which at least adds some comfort that his BA won’t fall off a cliff. 2024 Projection: 72/28/78/.228/.307/.465/1
216) Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.5 – The fun part about playing dynasty is the ability to be so far out ahead of the curve. I’m seeing O’Hoppe being called a sleeper this off-season, meanwhile, I named him a target back in February of 2022 when he was actually a sleeper, calling him “easily the most underrated catcher in the minors” in my 2022 Hitter Targets article (the 2024 version of that article comes out in early February). He went down with a torn shoulder that required surgery on April 20th that kept him out for 4 months, but he proved to be completely healthy when he returned. His already above average power ticked up to double plus levels with a 90.5/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV and 19.6 degree launch, which led to 14 homers in just 51 games. The plate approach was below average, but not terribly so with a 24.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and while the .236 BA is low, it’s mostly the product of bad luck with a .240 BABIP and .260 xBA. I hope were able to get in for beans back in 2022, but even if you weren’t, he looks setup for a potentially monster 2024 and is worth his now higher price. 2024 Projection: 63/25/76/.248/.322/.468/0
217) Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 29.7 – Just like last off-season, I like Tyler Wells a ton, but Baltimore being wishy washy with his ultimate role prevents me from really going after him. As I expected, his above average to plus control/whiff combo put up excellent results with a 3.64 ERA and 24.9%/7.2% K%/BB% in 118.2 IP. His 92.5 MPH fastball is a plus pitch, and he throws a legit 5 pitch mix with his changeup, slider and curve all putting up above average xwOBA’s. It’s very odd to me that Baltimore doesn’t give him the respect he deserves, but maybe they know something about his health that I don’t know. He started to struggle as his innings racked up, which is what prompted Baltimore to send him down to the minors in August and call him back up as a reliever in September. He’s going to be 29 years old and the 133.1 IP he threw this year is essentially a career high. It sure seems like Baltimore plans on using him out of the bullpen to start the season in 2024, especially after the Corbin Burnes trade. It’s hard to go after a guy who might be multi inning middle reliever. 2024 Projection: 10/3.62/1.12/133 in 140 IP Update: The Kyle Bradish injury almost guarantees Wells a spot in the rotation. As long as he’s in the rotation, I love Wells
218) Jordan Romano TOR, Closer, 30.11 – Romano is in the lower upper class of closers with a 29% K% on the back of a plus fastball/slider combo. Other than his rookie season, he hasn’t had an ERA higher than his 2.90 ERA this year (career 2.67 ERA). A back issue that popped up at the all-star game landed him on the IL for a few weeks in the 2nd half, but his 2.95 ERA post break shows it isn’t a concern. 2024 Projection: 4/3.06/1.08/65/32 saves in 55 IP Update: Diagnosed with elbow inflammation which they are hoping isn’t serious
219) Jose Alvarado PHI, Closer, 28.10 – With Kimbrel leaving town, Alvarado looks locked into at least the lion’s share of Philly’s closer job. He’s a lefty, so they could mix and match a bit, but I don’t think it will impact his value much. He’s straight elite with a 1.74 ERA and 37.2%/10.5% K%/BB% in 41.1 IP, and the stuff is fire with a 98.7 MPH sinker and 93.1 MPH cutter/slider. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, as he missed time during the season with an elbow injury. 2024 Projection: 3/2.76/1.14/85/28 saves in 60 IP
220) Chris Bassitt TOR, RHP, 35.1 – Bassitt’s horrific Spring Training and first start of the season (9 ER in 3.1 IP), proved to be him just taking his sweet old time to ramp up for the season. He was his usual good self after that with a 3.25 ERA and 186/59 K/BB in 196.2 IP. He threw a career high 200 IP at 34 years old, so maybe there was a method to his madness. He throws an 8 pitch mix that is geared towards weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against), above average control (7.1% BB%), and average K rates (22.5%). 2024 Projection: 12/3.68/1.17/165 in 180 IP
221) Yu Darvish SDP, RHP, 37.8 – Darvish is 37 years old, his year ended on August 25th with a bone spur in his elbow, he put up a career worst 24.6% K%, and his 4.56 ERA was basically a career worst. Assuming he’s entering a true decline phase seems like the right way to play it, but he definitely got unlucky last year with a 3.82 xERA, and the stuff is still big with a 94.3 MPH sinker and a 7 pitch mix. He can definitely still be an impact starter for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 12/3.78/1.18/176 in 165 IP
222) Willson Contreras STL, C, 31.11 – Contreras very quietly put up a career best .375 xwOBA which was in the top 7% of the league. He also notched career bests in Barrel% (12.2%), launch (10.1 degrees), and Max EV (117.5 MPH). He had a slow 1st half, but he absolutely exploded in the 2nd half with a .959 OPS and 10 homers in 46 games. He has too long of a track record to truly expect him to level up at the plate, but the underlying numbers say it isn’t out of the question. He had a poor defensive year behind the dish, but it could have been some growing pains with him joining a new team for the first time in his career, and they’re paying him too much to be too worried about his playing time. I sense that Contreras’ perceived value is relatively low right now, making him a solid buy candidate for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 64/23/71/.261/.350/.460/5
223) Raisel Iglesias ATL, Closer, 34.3 – Iglesias had yet another dominant year with a 2.75 ERA and 29.4%/6.5% K%/BB% in 55.2 IP. He’s put up a sub 3 ERA and an over 30% whiff% in 7 of his 9 seasons. He battled shoulder inflammation in April which delayed the start of his season until May, but he was obviously fully healthy once returning. 2024 Projection: 4/2.85/1.08/80/34 saves in 64 IP
224) Alec Bohm PHI, 1B/3B, 27.8 – I want to like Bohm more than I actually do. He hit a career high 20 homers in 145 games, and finished 93rd on the Razzball Player Rater on the back of 97 RBI and a .274 BA. But he just doesn’t have the homer upside or speed for me to really go out of my way to get him. He’s a line drive hitter with an 11.1 degree launch, he doesn’t hit the ball hard in the air with a 92.2 MPH EV, he doesn’t pull the ball often with a 30.2% Pull%, and he has a 26.6 ft/sec sprint. It’s a BA first profile with a 15.4% K%, 89.4 MPH AVG EV and .287 xBA, but even that is combined with a low walk rate (6.9% BB%) and below average chase rate (30% chase%). He should continue to be an above average fantasy hitter, but he just hasn’t shown the upside that I like going after considering his relatively high price. 2024 Projection: 77/21/85/.279/.333/.440/4
225) Eloy Jimenez CHW, DH, 27.4 – Eloy’s ground ball rate is becoming a problem with a career worst 53.2% GB% that led to only 18 homers in 120 games. That’s a 24 homer pace over 160 games, which obviously isn’t bad, but when it comes with literally zero steals (0 steals in 436 career games), a mediocre plate approach (19%/6.1% K%/BB%), and a long injury history, you need to be sure you are getting huge homer totals. He still hits the ball extremely hard with a 90.9/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, so he’s certainly capable of putting up big homer totals without having an extreme launch angle, and he can do it with a good BA too (career .275 BA). The ingredients are there for him put together a Luis Robert like career year if he can actually play a full season (122 games played is his career high), but unlike Robert, he doesn’t really have the upside to stick your neck out for it. 2024 Projection: 71/25/87/.275/.324/.487/0
226) Ezequiel Duran TEX, 3B/SS/OF, 24.10 – If Duran were in a weaker organization where playing time wasn’t a concern, I would tell you to go after him with reckless abandon, but that just isn’t the reality of his situation. Texas has established players at basically every position, and with Wyatt Langford on the way, not even the DH spot in safe. He’s also not a good defensive player, so the glove isn’t going to force him on the field. But it’s not like there isn’t a path to playing time at all. Evan Carter is a good centerfielder, so if Leody Taveras doesn’t hit, Leody could end up the odd man out. Duran can also play multiple positions, so even in a super utility role he can play almost everyday. And if anybody gets hurt, he will essentially be the next man up. He’s absolutely electric at the plate with big EV’s (90.1 MPH), the ability to lift the ball (14 degree launch), double plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint), and no major contact issues (28.5% whiff%). He’s a high chase player (37.7% chase%), but with his talent, that is something you mainly have to worry about like 7 years from now, and he could easily improve in that area over time. There are just too many green flags here for me to focus too heavily on the fact he isn’t quite locked into a spot at the moment. I’m still going after him, but in a responsible way, not in a reckless way. 2024 Projection: 73/21/73/.257/.316/.442/13
227) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 22.8 – Tovar didn’t do anything well enough to get really excited for him in 2024, but he also didn’t do anything bad enough to get too discouraged. An 88 MPH EV with a 8.1% barrel%, 12.6 degree launch, 27% K%, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint is not the worst starting point for a 21 year old. 15 homers with 11 steals in 155 games can easily become 20+ homers with 15+ steals with just a few incremental improvements. It doesn’t look like he will be the type to carry you in any one category, or to be a league winner, but he’s right on track to be a solid across the board contributor. 2024 Projection: 80/18/73/.264/.317/.422/16
228) Steven Kwan CLE, OF, 26.4 – 21 steals in 24 attempts over 718 PA is simply not enough for a player with Kwan’s profile with the new rules. There are slomo’s out there stealing 10 bags in their sleep. He needs to be in the 30 plus range considering how weakly he hits the ball. He had a 1.1% Barrel%, and it led to an only .268 BA with 5 homers despite an elite 10.4%/9.7% K%/BB%. He scored 93 runs and his .282 xBA is probably more representative of his true talent level, so he for sure has value, but he needs to run more to make a true fantasy impact. 2024 Projection: 90/7/56/.282/.355/.394/25
229) Luis Arraez MIA, 2B, 27.0 – The Hit Tool King was flirting with a .400 BA all the way through mid June, and while it fell off after that, he still finished with a league leading by far .354 BA. His career .326 BA not only leads all of baseball over his 5 year career, it leads all of baseball if you set the Fangraphs leaderboards all the way back to the year 1999. He also finally cracked the double digit homer seal with 10 homers, which is obviously still very low, and he also accrued a lowly 3 steals, 71 runs and 69 RBI. He’s a one trick pony, but that one trick is historically great. 2024 Projection: 84/10/59/.331/.385/.438/4
230) Jack Suwinski PIT, OF, 25.7 – Suwinski is the discount Nolan Jones. Their barrel% (Suwinski-15.7% vs. Jones-15.7%), exit velocity (Suwinski-90.5 MPH vs. Jones-90.1 MPH), whiff% (Suwinski-30.1% vs. Jones-31.9%), walk rate (Suwinski-14% vs. Jones-12.5%), Max EV (Suwinski-114.7 MPH vs. Jones-115.3 MPH) and speed (Suwinski-28.6 ft/sec vs. Jones-28.4 ft/sec) are all remarkably similar. There are some key things which differentiate their profiles. Jones hits lefties better, his launch isn’t as extreme, he ran a lot more, and he plays in Coors, so Jones clearly deserves to go much higher than Suwinski, but the point is, the potential is there for Suwisnki to put up some difference making fantasy numbers at a much lower cost. His .224 BA (.218 xBA) is a major problem in 5×5 BA leagues, so he’s much more attractive in OBP/OPS/6+ Cat leagues, but even in a 5×5, his swing and miss isn’t so bad that I would rule out improvement there. He’s the type of target you slow play and hope to get for a great value in drafts/auctions. 2024 Projection: 76/28/81/.232/.331/.467/15
231) Trevor Story BOS, SS, 31.4 – Story underwent an internal brace procedure on his UCL in January, and he struggled hard after returning in August with a 48 wRC+ and 32.7%/5.4% K%/BB% in 43 games. He’s sure to perform better with a fully heathy off-season, and the power/speed combo is still very much present for him to pop in 2024 with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and 9.7% Barrel%, but you need to expect it to come with a BA that can tank you. His performance clearly took a hit after leaving Coors with a mediocre 2022 as well. 2024 Projection: 76/24/81/.237/.306/.441/27
232) Jake Burger MIA, 3B, 28.0 – Burger tore his Achilles tendon twice in a row as a prospect. He’s a hefty 6’2”, 230 pounds. And he still has a well above average 28 ft/sec sprint speed. I’m just marveling at the level of athleticism. As someone who grew up a chubby kid and was also a good athlete, I always have a soft spot for a guy like this. But you aren’t buying the speed here (he stole only 1 bag in his entire pro career, and that came this year), you are buying the monster power. He cracked 34 homers with a 16.7% Barrel%, 97.8 MPH FB/LD EV, and 118.2 MPH Max EV. The hit tool and plate approach are rough with a 34.1% whiff% and 38.5% chase%, but being aggressive at the dish kept his strikeout rate at a manageable 27.6%. He’s hit well his entire MLB career with a 118 wRC+ (120 wRC+ in 2023), so I see no reason why he wouldn’t be 100% legit. 2024 Projection: 74/29/88/.246/.311/.488/1
233) Edouard Julien MIN, 2B, 24.11 – I was the party pooper on a Minnesota infielder last off-season (Jose Miranda), and I’m going to do it again with another Minnesota infielder this year, Edouard Julien, although I definitely like Julien more this off-season than I did Miranda last off-season for one major reason, OBP. Julien is an elite OBP player with a 15.7% BB% and .381 OBP in 109 MLB games. He’s never put up a BB% under 18.8% at any level in the minors. He also hits the ball hard with a 89.5/94.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. What gives me pause, in 5×5 BA leagues especially, are that his strikeout rates are high (31.4%), his groundball rates are high (50.2%), he’s a below average defensive player, he has below average speed (27 ft/sec sprint), and he struggled majorly vs. lefties (.447 OPS in 48 MLB PA and .758 OPS in 91 PA at Triple-A). If he ends up in a strong side of a platoon role with an average-ish BA/homer combo, and only a handful of steals, it’s not going to make for a truly impact fantasy player. The extremely high OBP is the saving grace though, because it’s hard to take a guy who gets on base that much out of the lineup no matter what his other deficiencies are. 2024 Projection: 82/20/71/.248/.357/.440/7
234) Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 26.0 – Cabrera very well might be the highest risk, highest reward young pitcher in the game. He has major control risk with a 15.2% BB% in 99.2 IP, and while it was much better in 2022 at 11.3%, it was horrible in 2021 too with a 15.8% BB%. The extreme inconsistency is hard to trust. Along with the control risk, he also has major injury risk. He missed over a month of 2023 with a shoulder injury, and he battled biceps and forearm injuries in 2022. His 128 IP this year was a career high. But despite the risk, his upside is way too high to dismiss. He throws filth with a 96.2 MPH fastball, a double plus changeup, and a plus curve. It led to a 4.24 ERA (3.79 xERA), 30.9% whiff% and 27.2% K%. I love chasing upside, but the risk here is extreme enough to give me half a pause before reaching too high for him. 2024 Projection: 7/3.86/1.33/136 in 120 IP Update: Cabrera was diagnosed with a shoulder impingement but he has already started throwing, so hopefully it isn’t serous
235) Jarred Kelenic ATL, OF, 24.8 – Kelenic leveled up in 2023 with a career best by far 108 wRC+, and the underlying numbers back it up with an above average .333 xwOBA, but it still all feels so tenuous. He put up a .982 in April, a .727 OPS in May, a .588 OPS in June, a .686 OPS in July, and a .653 OPS in September (he missed all of August and some of July and September with a broken foot). His contact rates were still extremely rough with a 31.7% K% and 33.8% whiff%, which makes it hard to believe he can maintain a .253 BA, and he needed to bring his launch down to a non friendly 10 degrees in order to do it. He also isn’t a good base stealer, going 13 for 18 in 2023 and 24 for 35 in his career. The one thing he did very clearly improve upon is hitting the ball hard with a career best 45.5% Hard Hit%, but because he needed to bring the launch down, it only resulted in 11 homers in 105 games. Joining a new organization and hearing different voices can probably only help his development, but there is a reason Seattle was willing to move on from him in a salary dump trade. While the talent is still clearly in here, the improved 2023 and the high profile trade to Atlanta likely pushes his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 69/20/77/.243/.321/.424/14
236) Kyle Manzardo CLE, 1B, 23.8 – Manzardo was getting unlucky all season, and it was only a matter of time for him to get hot. Well, he got hot in a major way on September 8th and he took it right into the AFL. He smacked 6 homers in his final 11 regular season games and then crushed 6 dingers in 22 AFL games. He had a 90.6 MPH EV with very low groundball rates at Triple-A, so like I said, the homer binge was inevitable. The hit tool took a step back from 2022 with a .237 BA and 20.8% K% at Triple-A, so while there are still no contact issues, I might be leaning towards him being power over hit by a small margin. It will depend on how he adjusts vs. MLB pitchers. 2024 Projection: 61/19/70/.251/.328/.452/1 Prime Projection: 85/27/90/.269/.346/.482/1
237) Matt Chapman SFG, 3B, 30.11 – Chapman hit only 17 homers in 140 games, but that was very clearly the result of bad luck. He had a 93.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV with a 18.5 degree launch and 17.1% Barrel%. It’s actually astonishing he managed to hit only 17 homers. I’m almost impressed. He still managed a 110 wRC+ despite the bad luck. Don’t expect a high BA with a 28.4% K%, and while the power should bounce back, signing with San Francisco is a worst case scenario for him. The landing spot scares me off him. 2024 Projection: 76/27/82/.238/.330/.456/3
238) Jorge Soler SFG, OF, 32.1 – Soler’s hit tool took a step forward in 2023 with a career best 27.6% whiff% (31.5% whiff% in 2022), and that is all he needed to have a monster season with 36 homers and a .376 xwOBA in 137 games. His beastly power is unquestioned with a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 17.8 degree launch. His hit tool has been very inconsistent his entire career, making gains one year and then regressing back to even worse than career averages the next, so it’s hard to really say this is a new level for him. He’s also a terrible defensive player, he’s aging, and he hits lefties better than righties. He’s hit in bad ballparks his entire career, so I’m not too worried about the move to SF, and they have a full time job waiting for him, but I wouldn’t completely ignore the risks here. 2024 Projection: 76/30/82/.241/.328/.490/1
239) Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.4 – Holmes 27.1% K% isn’t high enough to put him in the truly elite closer tier when you have guys like Felix Bautista putting up a 46.4% K% (and plenty of others in the mid to high 30’s), but he’s in the tier right under that. He uses a 96 MPH sinker which he throws 69.2% of the time to keep the ball on the ground (negative 3.4 degree launch), and he uses a dominant slider (.176 xwOBA and 43.1% whiff%) and sweeper (.079 xwOBA and 44.2% whiff%) to miss bats. He’s locked in as the Yanks closer for 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.09/1.12/72/32 saves in 64 IP
240) Paul Sewald ARI, Closer, 33.10 – Sewald’s numbers took a step back after the trade to Arizona with a 3.57 ERA and 25%/12.5% K%/BB% in 17.2 IP, but I don’t see how that is anything other than small sample noise, or at the most just him getting acclimated with a new team, new city, new living situation etc … He also had a 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB% in 10 playoff IP (despite a 5.40 ERA). He’s not a flamethrower with a 92.2 MPH fastball, but it’s a double plus pitch that put up a .266 xwOBA and 28.4% whiff%, and he combines that with an above average to plus sweeper. Because it’s not really a prototypical closer profile, and he’s getting up there in age, I’m weary of ranking him too high on dynasty rankings, but he’s put up elite numbers for 3 straight years now. 2024 Projection: 4/3.29/1.11/82/33 saves in 63 IP
241) Tanner Scott MIA, Closer, 29.9 – Scott took control of the full time closer job in September and looks locked into the role for 2024. He most certainly has closer’s stuff with a double plus 96.8 MPH fastball and double plus 89.4 MPH slider. He induces weak contact with a 85.3 MPH EV against. And his control took a major step forward with his BB% dropping 8.1 percentage points to 7.8%. It led to a 2.31 ERA with a 33.9% K%. If he can maintain even half of those BB% gains, he’ll finish 2024 in the elite closer range. 2024 Projection: 4/3.25/1.17/85/30 saves in 65 IP
242) Adbert Alzolay CHC, Closer, 29.1 – Alzolay took over Chicago’s closer job in mid June and he never gave it back. He put up a 2.67 ERA with a 26.5%/5.1% K%/BB% and 22 saves in 64 IP on the season. He leads with the plus slider which he threw 45.1% of the time and put up a 40.6% whiff% on the pitch. He backs that up with 3 different fastballs (95.3 MPH 4-seamer, 95.3 MPH sinker, 91.1 MPH cutter). He got shut down for 3 weeks in September with a forearm injury, but he returned for one outing on September 29th and his velocity was fine, so I wouldn’t be concerned. The modest strikeout rate has him sitting in the 3rd tier of closers (there are so many stud closers), but his elite control should mitigate that with a strong WHIP, and there is potentially more K’s in the tank. 2024 Projection: 3/3.36/1.09/71/30 saves in 65 IP
243) Felix Bautista BAL, Closer, 28.10 – Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will miss all of 2024. He had a dumb stupid season with a 1.48 ERA and 46.4%/11.0% K%/BB% in 61 IP on the back of a 99.5 MPH fastball and a quadruple plus splitter. Kimbrel is keeping his closer seat warm on a one year deal, so I have no worries that Bautista will retain his closer job in 2025. I would take the Tommy John discount on him if you are a rebuilding team. 2024 Projection: OUT
244) Ian Happ CHC, OF, 29.8 – Happ’s .248 BA (career .249 BA) isn’t quite good enough support his only modest power/speed combo (21 homers with 14 steals in 158 games). He hits the ball hard with an 89.9 MPH EV, but it’s mostly geared towards line drives with a career 12 degree launch, and his 14 steals were a career high with the new rules, so that’s probably close to a ceiling as he approaches his 30’s. OBP leagues are where he thrives with a 14.3% BB% and .360 OBP, so make sure you don’t undervalue him in those leagues. He would rank about 75 spots higher in that league (OBP Rankings are coming in February). 2024 Projection: 80/20/20/.250/.345/.440/12
245) Brandon Lowe TBR, 2B, 29.10 – It might be time to officially hit Lowe with the injury prone label. He had yet another injury plagued season, most notably having issues with his back again. A broken knee cap also ended his season in September after fouling a pitch off it, but he’s supposedly good to go for 2024. 2019 is the only season he played an entire year. His 109 games played this year was the 2nd most of his career. He also has platoon risk with a .512 OPS vs. lefties, and Tampa is platoon city. When on the field, you know what you are getting from him, and that is power (91.4 MPH EV with a 16 degree launch), OBP (11.5% BB%) and a low BA (27.3% K% with a .231 BA). He was also on a modest career high stolen base pace with the new rules (7 steals). 2024 Projection: 74/28/81/.242/.333/.457/8
246) Rhys Hoskins MIL, 1B, 31.1 – Hoskins underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee in late March and missed all of 2023, but he should be 100% for 2024 as there was actually a chance he could have returned if Philly made the World Series. When healthy, he’s a consistent slugger with a high barrel% (12.2% career barrel%), high EV (90 MPH career EV), and a high launch (career 21.5 degree launch). He combines the power with high OBP’s (.353 career OBP), and no contact issues (career 24% whiff%). He lands in a great spot with Milwaukee. They are an above average park for righty homers (but below average overall), and there shouldn’t be many playing time concerns. 2024 Projection: 78/30/89/.243/.339/.480/2
247) Jorge Polanco SEA, 2B, 30.9 – Polanco’s power exploded in 2021 with 33 homers, he kept it up in 2022, but the dead ball subdued his numbers, and then he was right back at in 2023 with a 13.8% Barrel% that led to 14 homers in 80 games. Point being, he has legit 30+ homer upside if he can remain healthy, but he’s struggled to remain healthy with back, knee and hamstring injuries robbing him of a large portion of 2022-23. He’s also no longer an asset in steals with only 7 steals in his last 184 games, and he needed to trade in some of his plus hit tool to get to the extra power with a career worst .25.7% K%. The final negative cherry on top is that he got traded to the worst ballpark for righties. 2024 Projection: 74/25/82/.253/.330/.440/7
248) Thairo Estrada SFG, 2B/SS, 28.1 – Estrada put up a 38% chase% with a 85.9 MPH EV that was in the bottom 4% of the league. He’s never put up an above average xwOBA in his 5 year career, although he has a history of overperforming the underlying numbers. He’s also not lightning fast with a 28 ft/sec sprint speed, which makes me concerned he’s not going to be able to rack up quite enough steals in this new environment to make up for his other deficiencies. He hit .270 with 14 homers and 23 steals in only 120 games last year, and it was his 2nd year in a row of strong fantasy production, but both years came with low RBI and Runs totals. I was actually relatively high on Estrada last year as I felt similar players were going much higher than him, but now that his price has risen a bit, I’m not sure I’m apt to go out of my way to grab him. 2024 Projection: 74/16/61/.263/.319/.414/25
249) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. It also looks like he’s breaking camp as the starting CF. 2024 Projection: 76/15/66/.245/.302/.401/25 Prime Projection: 87/19/68/.261/.318/.422/31
250) Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 20.3 – I was high on Isaac in 2023 First Year Player Drafts, ranking him 20th overall, because when a smart organization takes a poor defensive player in the 1st round, you know they must really, really love the bat (which is why I’m high on Ralphy Velazquez in 2024). And that strategy proved correct as Isaac obliterated the lower minors. He slashed .266/.380/.462 with 13 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.3%/14.9% K%/BB% in 90 games at Single-A, and then he blew the doors off at High-A to close out the season, slashing .408/.491/.898 with 6 homers, 2 steals, and a 21.1%/14% K%/BB% in 12 games. He’s a 6’3” 240 pound lefty who hits the ball hard with an excellent plate approach. The GB% was a little on the high side, but not concerningly so with it sitting at 45% at Single-A, and while he’s not fast, the 12 steals show he is a good athlete. By this time next year, he will be competing for at least top 10 fantasy prospect status. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/30/97/.278/.366/.491/5
251) Ryan Mountcastle BAL, 1B, 27.1 – Mountcastle is the anti-Isaac Paredes. Statcast loves him, but it’s not fully translating to on field success. He had a 12.1% Barrel%, 91.4 MPH EV, and .357 xwOBA, but it only translated to 18 homers and a .333 wOBA in 115 games. Not bad, but not great. The disparity was even greater in 2022 with a .362 xwOBA vs. .316 wOBA. He doesn’t pull the ball a ton with a 30.7% Pull% and he plays in a bottom 3 ballpark for righty homers. The other issue is future playing time. He isn’t a good defensive player, he doesn’t hit righties all that well (.640 OPS in 2023 and a career .742 OPS), and Baltimore has Mayo, Kjerstad, and Basallo all ready to compete for at bats at 1B. A short side of a platoon role doesn’t look out of the question in the near future. The best thing for him would be a trade to a less talented organization and a ballpark that better fits his profile. It’s hard to fade a guy who smashes the ball this hard with a generally good feel to hit and no groundball issues, but his negatives are starting to worry me a little bit. 2024 Projection: 75/26/83/.268/.330/.455/5
252) Craig Kimbrel BAL, Closer, 35.10 – Kimbrel signed a 1 year deal with Baltimore to take over the closer job in Felix Bautista’s absence. He’s had a choppy career since 2019, and while he’s not the same prime Kimbrel, he’s stabilized his performance over the last 3 years. In 2023, he put up a 3.26 ERA with a 33.8%/10.1% K%/BB% in 69 IP. The fastball/slider combo is plus and it misses bats with a 33% whiff%. As long as he keeps his control in merely below average territory, he’ll be a high level short term closer option. 2024 Projection: 5/3.39/1.13/83/31 saves in 65 IP
253) Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP
254) Carlos Correa MIN, SS, 29.6 – Correa battled planter fasciitis in his left heel for most of 2023, and it led to a terrible season with a .230 BA, 18 homers, and 0 steals in 135 games. His sprint speed dropped to a career low 26.6 ft/sec. Its not the same injury or leg that resulted in two long term contracts falling through in 2022 with the Giants and Mets, but it just tacks on more concern that he isn’t going to age well. And he was already a super boring fantasy player with 0 steals since 2020 and a line drive approach (10.6 degree launch). He still had a 9.6% Barrel%, 90.4 MPH EV, and a 22.6%/10.2% K%/BB%, so he should bounce back in 2024, but his name value likely keeps his perceived value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 77/24/80/.270/.348/.465/0
255) Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 26.6 – Pena’s groundball% shot up in 2023, and he didn’t have any room to spare with it going from 46.4% to 54.3%. It resulted in him hitting only 10 homers in 150 games, after hitting 22 homers in 136 games his rookie year. He has near elite speed with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed, and he tried to take advantage of the new steal rules, but he failed with a 13 for 22 success rate on the bases. The power/speed combo taking a step back isn’t what you want to see in year 2. There was one silver lining, and that is he improved his plate approach with 20.3%/6.8% K%/BB% vs. a 24.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 2022. That isn’t a small deal, and we all know development isn’t linear. Last year very well could have been a bit of a Sophomore slump, which could be followed up by a big year 3 where everything comes together. I’m not predicting that will happen, but that is the reason I’m not even further down on him. 2024 Projection: 78/18/69/.268/.327/.421/14
256) Sal Frelick MIL, OF, 23.11 – Frelick’s 83.3 MPH EV in his 223 MLB PA debut is concerningly low, but there were actually a fair amount of low EV guys who thrived this year. Jake Fraley put up a .783 OPS with a 84.4 MPH EV. Andres Gimenez went 15/30 with a 84.8 MPH EV. Plenty of guys with EV’s under 87 put up impact fantasy seasons like Ha-Seong Kim, TJ Friedl, and Steven Kwan. It’s not a death knell to have a low EV, especially when you get the bat on the ball and have speed. And Frelick most surely gets the bat on the ball with a 16.6%/12.6% K%/BB%, and he most certainly has speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint. The low EV’s definitely cap his upside, he’s not going to be a major contributor in RBI or HR, but it’s been proven this type of profile can transfer to the majors. 2024 Projection: 78/9/58/.268/.345/.387/23
257) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 22.0 – Winn’s 29 wRC+ in his 137 PA MLB Debut was the 4th worst mark in the league (130 PA min). If you want to look on the bright side, it could have been worse. He could have been Cam Gallagher with a negative 17. Winn earned that terrible wRC+ by hitting the ball very weakly with only 2 barrels in 101 batted balls, but surprisingly, nothing actually looks too concerning to me in the underlying numbers. An 86/91 MPH AVG/FB EV is honestly not that terrible of a starting point for a relatively skinny 21 year old, and his 87.6 MPH EV in the minors clearly shows he has the juice for me. He showed double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, he got the bat on the ball with a 19%/7.3% K%/BB%, and he didn’t have any groundball issues with a 12.8 degree launch. He also got unlucky with a .196 BABIP and a .211 wOBA vs. .250 xwOBA, so the bad debut looked worse than it actually was. We saw plenty of players with a similar profile thrive in 2023, and I want to stress again, his EV numbers really aren’t in the true danger zone. Everything the Cardinals brass has said this off-season leads me to believe Winn is locked in as their Opening Day starting SS. All signs point towards him being much much better in 2024. 2024 Projection: 72/13/59/.241/.309/.388/21 Prime Projection: 83/17/64/.268/.330/.421/28
258) Luisangel Acuna NYM, SS/2B, 22.1 – Acuna’s power didn’t take a step forward in 2023 as hoped with only 9 homers in 121 games at Double-A, but there is definitely more raw juice in the tank with an explosive righty swing, and that was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent season. He put up a career best (other than the DSL) 18.6% K%, and he stole a career high 57 bases. It’s also really, really hard to resist the pull of elite bloodlines. Even if Acuna never develops big power, he can still be an impact fantasy player, and if does, watch out. 2024 Projection: 36/6/25/.239/.300/.382/14 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.258/.328/.427/35
259) Colson Montgomery CHW, SS, 22.1 – If you like a prospect who looks the part, you are going to love Montgomery. He’s a 6’3”, 205 pound SS with a nuclear and smooth lefty swing that quite clearly belongs on a major league baseball field. He also has a mature approach at the dish which resulted in 11 homers and a 20.3%/17.0% K%/BB% in 72 games across 4 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A, AFL). I don’t want to be a party pooper, because he’s clearly very exciting, but I do think there is a world where his upside doesn’t end up all that high. His groundball rates have been on the high side throughout his career (45.2% GB% in 37 games at Double-A), and he’s not a threat on the bases (3 for 8 in 186 career games). The hit tool is good, but it dropped off at Double-A with a .244 BA and he’s not an elite contact rate guy. Those are the reasons that make me hesitant to rank him as high as I see him in other places, but there is no denying he is a damn good prospect no matter how you slice it. 2024 Projection: 24/6/19/.251/.320/.436/1 Prime Projection: 92/27/86/.272/.356/.478/4
260) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser had a terrible MLB debut with a lowly 40 wRC+ and .115 BA in 77 PA, but he got massively unlucky. He had a .175 BABIP, his .302 xwOBA was much higher than his .226 wOBA, and none of his underlying numbers looked concerning at all really. He was a beast at Triple-A with a 136 wRC+, 17 homers, and 9 steals in 87 games. Despite not being overly concerned with the MLB debut, there are a few things that make me think he could end up a more solid than standout 5×5 BA fantasy player. The strikeout rates are on the high side with a 26.8% K% at Triple-A and 28.6% in MLB, the launch angle is on the low side with a 25.2% flyball% at Triple-A and 4.6 degree launch in MLB, and he’s not a true burner with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed. Add a star in OBP leagues as he’s an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases, but I’m seeing a more solid across the board type than a true league winner. 2024 Projection: 53/12/46/.248/.322/.422/10 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.264/.348/.440/14
261) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – Mauricio tore his ACL and will undergo surgery after a non contact injury on the bases in Winter Ball. It’s deju vu all over again with Edwin Diaz tearing his knee in the WBC last off-season. It’s getting so sad for Mets fans that I don’t even want to crack a joke about it. I just feel bad. Mauricio was a major target for me this off-season, so it’s just a major bummer all around. He’ll likely miss the entire 2024 season, and even if he doesn’t, you can’t count on him for anything at the MLB level. He also wasn’t a burner, so even a small drop in speed isn’t great. I still like him. but he’s no longer a real target for me. Here was my write-up for him prior to going down with the injury, just so we can remember the good times: “I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season.” 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.267/.325/.461/18
262) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – If you want to invest in one of those unicorn baseball talents in the mold of a Elly De La Cruz and James Wood, but don’t want to pay unicorn prices, Alcantara is the guy for you. He’s an elite athlete at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and blink of an eye bat speed. He scuffled to start the season with a .604 OPS in his first 35 games, but he was en fuego after that, slashing .329/.401/.549 with 11 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in his final 71 games at mostly High-A. He closed out the regular season at Double-A where he put up a 130 wRC+ in 5 games, and then went to the AFL where he put up a .865 OPS in 21 games. The hit tool and plate approach still need continued refinement, but prospect rankers seem far too hesitant on shooting such a uniquely talented player up rankings. He should be in unanimous near elite prospect range, and he mostly sits in good but not great prospect range. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/26/85/.257/.333/.467/16
263) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9
264) Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP
265) Jose Berrios TOR, RHP, 29.10 – Jose “Bounce Back” Berrios bounced back once again from a terrible season. The first time he did it was after an 8.02 ERA in his rookie year, and this time he did after putting up a 5.23 ERA last year. He had a pitching line of 3.65/1.19/184/52 in 189.2 IP. The problem is, he doesn’t really do anything well enough to want to buy into him again. The stuff is mediocre with an average 4 pitch mix, the strikeout rate is slightly above average at 23.5% K%, and the barrel% against is below average at 8.6%. The 4.55 xERA is also much worse than the ERA. The ceiling looks just about like an average pitcher, and the floor is another blow up year like 2022. 2024 Projection: 12/3.92/1.22/177 in 185 IP
266) MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 25.1 – Everything in my gut tells me Gore is going to end up being one of the model cases of “pitching development isn’t linear.” Nearly all of the ingredients are there for him to follow in the path of many former top pitching prospects before him. The stuff is still big led by a 95 MPH fastball, he has a diverse pitch mix, the secondaries get whiffs (27.9% whiff% overall), and the control isn’t really that terrible (9.8% BB%). Studs like Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito, and many more have gone from zero to hero (my bad, watching too much Shark Tank again) in the blink of an eye, and Gore really wasn’t even that bad this year with a 4.42 ERA and 25.9% K%. He’s still a young pitcher with all the risk that comes with, but Gore isn’t looking like a bad target at all right now for a pitching starved team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.92/1.32/178 in 155 IP
267) Griffin Canning LAA, RHP, 27.11 – I told you to put a star next to Kutter Crawford’s name as you fill out of the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation in the Boston Red Sox Dynasty Team Report, and Canning is in the very same class of target for me. Neither are big names, neither were super hyped prospects, and both showed signs of extremely exciting breakouts in 2023 that were hidden by less impressive surface stats. Canning’s fastball velocity ticked up to a career high 94.7 MPH, and it turned into a bat missing weapon with a 28.3% whiff%. The slider is plus with a .262 xwOBA, and he throws a legit 4 pitch mix rounded out by a solid changeup and curve. He put up a 29.1% whiff% overall which is in near elite territory, and like Kutter, the control took a big step forward with a plus 6.7% BB%. That is a very impressive profile, and the mediocre 4.32 ERA in 127 IP will keep his price mighty reasonable. Canning and Kutter aren’t sexy breakout picks, which is exactly what makes them excellent targets. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing. They seem boring, but they are actually quite dangerous. 2024 Projection: 10/3.76/1.24/165 in 150 IP
268) Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP
269) Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 29.4 – Cortes hit the IL with a shoulder injury after his May 30th start, and then returned for one start in August before being shutdown for the season because of the shoulder. He’s expected to be good to go for 2024, but that shoulder injury adds a lot of risk to the profile. And he wasn’t nearly as good as he was in 2021-22 with a 4.97 ERA in 63.1 IP. The 25.2%/7.5% K%/BB% still looked good, his heavily used 91.6 MPH fastball was still a beast with a .246 xwOBA against, and the 3.66 xERA looked much better. He’s definitely a bounce back candidate, but the shoulder injury prevents me from really sticking my neck out for it, and his true talent level probably isn’t actually as good as what he showed in 2022. 2024 Projection: 10/3.68/1.17/150 in 145 IP
270) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 26.8 – A shoulder injury in spring training delayed the start of McKenzie’s season until June, and then he hit the IL again after only 2 starts with a UCL sprain that kept him out until late September. He had a 5.06 ERA with a 21.9%/17.8% K%/BB% in 16 IP on the season, but considering the injuries, you should probably ignore the stats. It was a completely lost season. At a super skinny 6’5”, 165 pounds, durability was always a major concern for McKenzie long term, but maybe that’s not fair to put on him as pitchers of all shapes and sizes go down with injuries. Regardless, the injury filled season makes him a major risk for 2024 and beyond. He relies on plus control to thrive because the fastball only sits 92.4 MPH and his stuff gets hit hard with a career 9.9% barrel% against, so he needs to be healthy and in a rhythm to keep everything in sync. 2024 Projection: 8/3.93/1.24/160 in 160 IP
271) Gabriel Moreno ARI, C, 24.1 – Moreno just doesn’t lift the ball enough to go too crazy for him in fantasy with a 4.2 degree launch that led to only 7 homers in 111 games. He smacked 4 homers in 17 playoff games, but it still came with a 51.2% GB%, so he didn’t change his hitting approach or anything. The hit tool is plus, but it’s not elite with a 19.7% K% and .284 BA, and the speed is average with 6 steals. He hits the ball fairly hard with an 89.8 MPH EV, so the raw power is in there if he can raise his launch, and he’ll barely be 24 years old at the start of 2024, so all of his skills (contact, power, approach) should improve from here. I like him, but his plus catcher defense has always made him a better real life prospect/player than fantasy. 2024 Projection: 58/15/69/.278/.337/.418/7
272) Adael Amador COL, SS/2B, 21.0 – Amador has looked too advanced at every level he’s played at with an elite plate approach (10%/12% K%/BB% in 54 games at High-A in 2023), that is until he closed out the year in Double-A. He put up 35 wRC+ with a 19.5%/9.8% K%/BB% in 10 games. It’s only 10 games, he was only 20 years old, and he was also coming off hamate surgery which held him out for about 2 month, but it does at least plant the idea that his plate approach might not be quite as elite against more advanced competition. He’s also an extreme groundball hitter (55.9% GB% at High-A) without big raw power, and his speed grades are only average to above average (although we discussed in the Nolan Jones blurb how unreliable those grades can be). The upside seems a little lacking to me, but his floor is as high as anyone’s, especially with Coors Field waiting for him, and he’s so young that I wouldn’t rule out an uptick in power down the line. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/17/70/.282/.356/.429/22
273) Willy Adames MIL, SS, 28.7 – Adames had a down year in 2023 with a .217 BA and 24 homers in 149 games. His EV was down a bit with a 5 year low 87.4 MPH EV, but that isn’t too far off from career norms to really think it’s a true decline, and everything else was in line with career norms with a 12.4% Barrel% and .335 xwOBA. He’s not a high BA hitter and he doesn’t have truly beastly power, but the hit/power combo is better than he showed in 2023. 2024 Projection: 76/28/84/.235/.315/.449/6
274) Will Benson CIN, OF, 25.9 – Benson was one of my favorite sleeper bats heading into 2023, and he overslept by 2 and a half months. He put up a .425 OPS in his first 49 PA and was sent back down to Triple-A. But when he finally heard that alarm clock, he shot out of bed like a cannon, slashing .298/.389/.554 with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a 30.1%/12.6% K%/BB% in his final 280 PA. He smashes the ball with a 90.2/94.4 MPH AVG/FB EV and 10.3% Barrel%, and he has double plus speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint. The hit tool is well below average, but a 31.3% K% and 31.5% whiff% is not too horrific, and he gets on base with a 12.2% BB%. He struggled hard vs. lefties with a .400 OPS, and he’s not a good defensive player, so he’s limited to a strong side of a platoon bat, but he has the type of talent that can thrive even in a platoon role, and injuries might give him a bigger role in the 1st half of the season. 2024 Projection: 77/19/66/.234/.323/.445/27
275) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 24.5 – As for the Baby Mets, Baty is stuck somewhere in between Alvarez and Vientos, in the sense he still has enough name value where his price won’t be that cheap, but his upside might not be quite high enough to pay that high price. He’s put up very high groundball rates his entire career and he had a 6.6 degree launch in 389 MLB PA in 2023. It led to a lowly 9 homers and 68 wRC+. He also doesn’t have the high contact rates to make up for it with a 28% K% and 31.5% whiff%. I don’t want this to come off like I don’t like him though, because I would bet on Baty becoming a very good MLB hitter. He has a mature plate approach, he hits the ball very hard, he has great size (6’3”, 210), he’s a solid defender at 3B, and he just looks like a hitter in the box. I’m just concerned about his upside in 5×5 BA leagues, and I don’t think his price will be all that cheap this off-season. 2024 Projection: 77/22/74/.246/.322/.435/4 Prime Projection: 84/26/88/.264/.347/.475/5
276) Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – I was hyping up Morel in these here Imaginary pages at this time last year, ranking him 189th on the 2023 Top 1,000, and while you are still probably unsure what to think of him one year later, you have to be relatively satisfied at what he provided your fantasy team considering his very reasonable cost. He jacked 26 homers with 6 steals and a .247 BA in 107 games. It was good for a 119 wRC+ and a full-season pace of about 35+ homers and 10 steals. He absolutely pummeled the ball with a 92.1/97.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, he has plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he didn’t run as much as I thought he would), and he has average walk rates with a 8.4% BB%. But the reason we are still unsure of him, is because he didn’t improve enough on his two biggest weaknesses, contact and defense. He still had a cover your eyes 37% whiff% with a 31% K%, and he was a terrible defender with a negative 12.9 Fangraphs defensive value. He’s basically a DH and a roaming defensive player as needed. I still love the fantasy upside, and am encouraged that he managed a solid 22% K% to close out the season in September, but mostly because of the playing time concerns, I have to admit I’m not quite as high on him this off-season as I was last off-season. 2024 Projection: 68/25/76/.241/.316/.478/12
277) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 19.5 – The only question for the sweet swinging, athletic, and beastly 6’4”, 250 pound Montes was how bad the contact rates would be stateside after putting up a 33.2% K% in the DSL in 2022, and he answered those questions in resounding fashion with him actually improving against the more advanced competition. He had a ,282 BA with a 25.3%/22.6% K%/BB% in 37 games in stateside rookie ball, and then he went to Single-A and had a .321 BA with a 25%/13.5% K%/BB% in 33 games. He’s obviously never going to be Nick Madrigal, but a 25% K% is a perfectly fine number for an elite power/OBP player, and considering how much he improved this year, I don’t see why he can’t take another step forward in the future. To nobody’s surprise, the power is so sincere with 13 homers in 70 games overall. He had a 150 wRC+ in rookie and a 165 wRC+ at Single-A. At minimum, Montes is an elite power hitting prospect, and if his contact rates take another step forward, he can be a true Top 5 prospect by this time next year. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/34/105/.252/.355/.525/4
278) Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 26.8 – Plus control breakouts are all the rage these days. Garrett put up an elite 4.4% BB% and it allowed his junk-bally stuff to play up with a pitching line of 3.66/1.15/156/29 in 159.2 IP. His slider is his best pitch with a 40.7% whiff%, his 90.5 MPH sinker kept the ball on the ground with a 3 degree launch, and he added a cutter into the arsenal which wasn’t particularly good, but it gives him another weapon to use vs. righties. He also throws a changeup, curve, and 4-seamer to round out the classic lefty, junk baller profile. The slider gives him enough swing and miss upside to keep him enticing, but what he did in 2023 might be pretty close to the ceiling. 2024 Projection: 10/3.81/1.21/157 in 160 IP Update: A shoulder issue popped up which they are saying isn’t serious, but he could start the year on the IL
279) TJ Friedl CIN, OF, 28.7 – Friedl has massively outperformed his underlying for 3 years in a row. He had a .338 wOBA vs. a .311 xwOBA in 2021, a .323 wOBA vs. a .283 xwOBA in 2022, and finally a .353 wOBA vs. a .289 xwOBA in 2023. He does it by using the Statcast blind spot of making tons of contact (16.2% K%), lifting the ball (16.1 degree launch), pulling the ball (44.5% Pull%), and hitting in a great ballpark. Statcast should probably adjust their meters or something, because it’s clear at this point a profile like this can thrive without hitting the ball hard (86.7/88.6 MPH AVG/FB EV). It does add some risk to the profile, especially if the balls aren’t as juicy in 2024, but Friedl’s above average CF defense and speed (28.2 ft/sec sprint with 27 steals) mitigates some of that risk. 2024 Projection: 49/9/37/.260/.330/.426/16 Update: Fractured his wrist and there is no timetable for his return
280) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 41.1 – It took 40 years, but I think we can officially say Verlander is on the decline. His strikeout rate dropped 6.3 percentage points to a below average 21.5% and his whiff% also dropped to a below average 22.5%. The swing and miss rates have been declining for 3 years now. He’s starting from such a high place, even his decline looks good though with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 162.1 IP. The expectation shouldn’t be that he can carry your fantasy rotation anymore, but he should still be able to put up some strong #2/3 starter seasons until he decides to retire. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.15/165 in 165 IP Update: Experiencing shoulder soreness and will start the year on the IL, but seems to be progressing well
281) Max Scherzer TEX, RHP, 39.8 – Knowing when to trade away your aging studs is one of the trickiest balancing acts in dynasty leagues. Some people like to trade away anyone who even sniffs 30 years old like they were throwing Granny into the nursing home after she stumbles for half a step. For me, 33 years old is usually a benchmark for when it could be time to make a move. And others will ride their Paul Goldschmidt’s, Max Scherzer’s etc … right into the ground. If you’ve held onto Scherzer this long, you might not have gotten his peak seasons as he got deeper into his 30’s, but you still got an upper echelon starting pitcher. But now that he’s approaching his 40’s, the real decline seems to have arrived. He underwent back surgery this off-season and is expected to be out until June. His elite slider took a major tumble to barely above average levels in 2023 with a .303 xwOBA and 36.4% whiff%. It had a .160 xwOBA with a 46.4% whiff% in 2022. His control also took a step back with his BB% rising 3 percentage points to 7.2%. Everything else looked pretty good, and he still had a good season with a 3.77 ERA and 28% K% in 152.2 IP. Scherzer is the type of guy who is just built different, and I mean that literally, he has two different eye colors, but I also mean that figuratively, so maybe the slider and control actually bounce back next year. But with news of the back surgery, it doesn’t seem like a good bet. 2024 Projection: 6/3.69/1.17/100 in 90 IP
282) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 36.0 – Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery this off-season and is hoping to return around mid-season. When he’s on the mound, he does nothing but dominate with a 2.46 ERA and 26.2%/7.6% K%/BB% in 131.2 IP in 2023. Diminished velocity, shoulder problems, back injuries etc … it doesn’t matter, he performs when he’s out there, so I hesitate to bet against him even considering this surgery and his advanced age. But his 18.5% K-BB% was a 11 year low, so signs of decline are seeping in beyond just the injuries. 2024 Projection: 5/3.22/1.09/77 in 75 IP
283) Nathaniel Lowe TEX, 1B, 28.9 – As expected, Lowe’s 27 homers and .302 BA in 2022 proved to be a mirage with him hitting only 17 homers with a .262 BA in 161 games in 2023. He just doesn’t launch the ball high enough with a lowly 7.2 degree launch to expect big power numbers. On the plus side, he maintained the contact gains he made in 2022 with a 22.8% K% (20.6% whiff% was a career high), and his walk rates bounced back with a 12.8% BB% (7.4% BB% in 2022). 2024 Projection: 87/22/84/.271/.358/.447/3
284) Jeimer Candelario CIN, 3B/1B, 30.4 – Candelario signing with the Reds changes everything. That is a monster ballpark upgrade from any ballpark he’s ever called home. And he’s the type who could particularly use that huge ballpark upgrade because he’s never really been a huge EV guy with a solid 88.3/93.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he has the launch (14.1 degrees) to take advantage of the much friendlier confines. He smacked a career high 22 homers in 140 games in 2023, and he needed to outperform his underlying numbers to do it with a .346 wOBA vs. .319 xwOBA, but in Cincinnati now, I’m not nearly as concerned with him coming down to earth. He’s now in position to be a legit impact fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 79/24/85/.257/.338/.448/6
285) Leody Taveras TEX, OF, 25.7 – Taveras has a plus glove in CF, but like I wrote in the Duran blurb, Carter is capable of playing a good center too, so there is still going to be pressure on his bat to lock down an everyday role. And he took multiple steps in 2023 towards cementing that bat as a legitimate MLB threat. His K% dropped 4.7 percentage points to 21.1% and his whiff% dropped 3.9 percentage points to 24.2%. The power also ticked up with career bests in EV (90.1 MPH), Barrel% (7.2%) and Hard Hit% (43.1%). It resulted in a slightly above average .320 xwOBA. He started to show a more mature plate approach at the end of the year with a 27/20 K/BB in his final 39 games including the playoffs, so there could still be another offensive level to unlock here. And the speed is double plus with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint. I’m not sure I would want to bet on him to go full offensive breakout, but even one more step forward would make him an impact fantasy bat. 2024 Projection: 76/17/72/.268/.325/.419/22
286) Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 26.4 – Marsh leveled up in 2023 with career bests in K% (30.5%), whiff% (27.3%), BB% (12.5%), launch (12.4 degrees), and OPS (.829). He has the type of tools where that kind of improvement should have resulted in an explosion, but his 12 homers and 10 steals in 133 games were still lacking. Regardless, showing improvements in those areas are key, and it lays the foundation for potentially big seasons from here on out with a 91.3/94.9 MPH AVG/FB EV and 28.6 ft/sec sprint. He also hit lefties decently well with a .717 OPS. There is a lurking beast in here, and despite the high strikeout rate, the floor is deceivingly high. Marsh is nice little target. 2024 Projection: 77/18/77/.263/.342/.435/14
287) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.4 – Lux put on a lot of muscle weight last off-season in a bid to increase his power, but it ended up backfiring as the excess weight seemed to clearly play a role in him tearing his ACL, MCL, and hamstring in spring training while running the bases. LA is currently committed to him as their starting SS in 2024, so they obviously have faith he will return to full health. Lux was having an underwhelming start to his MLB career relative to the hype, but he still leveled up in 2022. He had an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The homer/steal totals were very minimal (6 homers with 7 steals in 129 games in 2022), but the hope is that his steal totals pop with the new baserunning rules like the rest of the league, and that his homer power also increases as he gains strength (which was the goal coming into 2023). The ingredients are there for him to a have a very strong across the board profile, but we don’t know what he will look like post injury. 2024 Projection: 72/14/61/.265/.337/.410/16
288) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 24.9 – Detmers came into 2023 Spring Training looking like fire with increased velocity, and while it wasn’t a mirage with a career best 94.3 MPH fastball and 26.1% K%, he still needs to take steps to put it all together. The 4.48 ERA (4.55 xERA), 1.35 WHIP, and 9.3% BB% in 148.2 IP were still mediocre. Even with the increased velocity, the fastball didn’t perform all that well with a .358 xwOBA, and while his secondaries are solid, none are truly standout. It seems the best path for him to take a step forward is to improve his control, but I find it hard to bet on LA being the team to help him do that. I like Detmers if he fell into my lap, but I think his perceived value is a bit too high for him to land in the target range for me. 2024 Projection: 10/3.98/1.30/167 in 160 IP
289) DL Hall MIL, LHP, 25.6 – It looks like I wasn’t the only one to love DL Hall. Milwaukee targeted him in a trade for Corbin Burnes, and it seems like they have every intention to use him as a starter. This was a perfect landing spot for him both opportunity wise and developmental wise. Hall wasn’t able to properly ramp up last off-season which resulted in his fastball velocity dropping a tick or two in the 1st half, and he struggled because of it with a 4.67 ERA in his first 44.1 IP. Baltimore then shut him down for a month to build strength back up and his velocity returned in a bullpen role in the 2nd half. He closed out the year in the majors and showed why he’s been such a highly touted prospect with a 2.84 ERA and 31.2%/6.5% K%/BB% in 22.2 IP (including the playoffs). The 95.6 MPH fastball was silly elite with a .243 xwOBA and 30.2% whiff%, the changeup was plus with a 36.4% whiff% and .241 xwOBA, and the slider was mediocre with a 31% whiff% and .358 xwOBA. It resulted in a near elite 30.3% whiff% overall. The most impressive thing was his control (6.5% BB%) as he’s struggled with his control his entire career. This is legit top of the rotation upside in the mold of a Jesus Luzardo, and although the control improvements were in a small sample and out of the bullpen, they are extremely encouraging to me. I loved Hall even before the trade to Milwaukee, and now I’m really all in on him. 2024 Projection: 8/3.81/1.29/145 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.48/1.23/185 in 160 IP
290) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 22.8 – The automated strike zone at Triple-A absolutely murdered Harrison with a cartoonish 16.3% BB% in 65.2 IP. It deflated all the way down to an above average 7.5% in 34.2 IP in the majors. I guess it was almost like playing basketball with ankle weights and then taking them off. The majors felt like easy mode compared to Triple-A. He didn’t have as much success with carrying over his extreme strikeout rates from the minors either though, as he put up a 35.6% K% in the minors vs. a 23.8% K% in the majors. His 93.6 MPH fastball was plus with .300 xwOBA and 24.8% whiff%, but all 3 of his secondaries got destroyed with lackluster whiff rates. The whiff rates on his secondaries weren’t all that great at Triple-A either. It’s still hard to fully trust the control, the secondaries aren’t great, and the fastball is plus but not elite quite yet, so that leaves Harrison in the 2nd tier of pitching prospects for me rather than the elite tier. 2024 Projection: 8/4.07/1.31/150 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.69/1.26/185 in 165 IP
291) Eduardo Rodriguez ARI, LHP, 31.0 – Rodriguez always felt underrated to me in the dynasty world, and while he’s never really had that crazy breakthrough year, he’s been consistently good. The baseball gods smiled down upon him in his contract year by putting up a career best 3.30 ERA in 152.2 IP, earning him a 4 year, $80 million contract with Arizona. But most of that was the result of good luck, as his 4.04 xERA and 23.0%/7.7% K%/BB% were both right in line with career norms. He throws an average to above average 5 pitch mix, so he’s not going to blow you away with stuff, but he knows how to pitch and it should be a profile that ages well. 2024 Projection: 11/3.81/1.27/155 in 165 IP
292) Luis Severino NYM, RHP, 30.2 – Severino had an absolutely horrific 2023, and it kinda came out of nowhere. He put up a 6.65 ERA with a 18.9%/8.2% K%/BB% in 89.1 IP. The only real explanation I can see is that it had something to do with a lat strain that he suffered both at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. I know tipping his pitches has also been blamed, but maybe the tipping happened due to the injury. He was only able to land a 1 year, $13 million contract this off-season, which tells me MLB teams were not willing to bet on a true bounce back. He at least has a plan this off-season, going to Driveline and working on not tipping his pitches. The stuff is still fully intact with a 96.5 MPH fastball, so obviously the talent is there to turn it around. Considering nobody really seems to still believe in him, he makes for a pretty reasonably priced bounce back bet. 2024 Projection: 9/4.03/1.30/148 in 150 IP
293) Heston Kjerstad BAL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Kjerstad finally played in his first full professional season since being draft 2nd overall in 2022 due to myocarditis, and he showed why he got draft so highly, slashing .303/.376/.528 with 21 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 122 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He cooled off towards the end of the season with a .680 OPS in his final 34 games, but that’s understandable as he almost doubled his career high in games. He also closed the year out in the majors where he showed off the massive power with 2 homers, a 92.3 MPH EV and 19.3 degree launch in 33 PA. The power is unquestionable, but the plate approach was rough with a 30.3%/6.1% K%/BB%, and his plate approach hasn’t been the strongest point of his game going back to college, so there is certainly some risk there. There is also a major, no ending in sight playing time scrum brewing in Baltimore. 2024 Projection: 44/15/50/.246/.313/.452/3 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.259/.325/.483/6
294) Jacob Misiorowski MIL, RHP, 22.0 – If you want to know what peak Misiorowski could be like, just take a look at Tyler Glasnow. Both are extremely tall righties with athletic deliveries, mid to upper 90’s fastballs, two plus breaking balls, and terrible control early in their careers. Glasnow put up a 36.3%/13.5% K%/BB% in 111.1 IP in his first year of full season ball in 2013, and Mis just put up a 35%/13.4% K%/BB% in 71.1 IP split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. The hope is that Misiorowski’s control improves throughout his career like Glasnow’s has. Glasnow just put up a 7.6% BB% this year after putting up a 14.4% BB% in 2017 in the majors. Point being, a big jump in control/command is very possibly in the cards for Mis down the line. Let’s just hope he doesn’t catch Glasnow’s injury bug, as he was shut down with arm fatigue after his last start of the season on August 15th. 2024 Projection: 2/3.92/1.34/30 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.54/1.22/190 in 160 IP
295) AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 21.5 – Atlanta flew Shawver through their minor league system so fast that it put the prospect world in a tizzy, but they went a little too far with it, and the tizzy cooled off a bit by the end of the season. He put up a 1.09 ERA with a 35.2%/9.4% K%/BB% in his first 33 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), but he wasn’t as good after getting promoted to the majors, putting up a 4.47 ERA with a 23.6%/14.0% K%/BB% in 54.1 IP the rest of the way in MLB and Triple-A. It was probably a little too much, a little too fast, but Atlanta showed how much they believe in this kid. He throws a legit 4 pitch mix led by a potentially plus mid 90’s fastball. His changeup was his least used secondary (10.6% usage), but it dominated MLB hitters with a .068 xwOBA and 50% whiff%. The slider is his most used secondary, and it has plus potential (35.1% MLB whiff%), and a potentially average to above curve rounds out the arsenal. Like most pitchers his age, he needs to refine his control/command and secondaries. There is #2 starter upside if it all comes together, and considering how he was able to hold his own at only 20 years old in the majors, the floor is pretty high too. 2024 Projection: 5/4.05/1.26/90 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.58/1.17/185 in 170 IP
296) Vaughn Grissom BOS, SS, 23.3 – Boston isn’t going to target Grissom in a 1 for 1 Chris Sale trade if they don’t have every intention of handing him the starting 2B job. This is a boon for Grissom’s dynasty value as he was stuck in no man’s land with Atlanta. He’s a safety over upside bat with a plus hit tool and moderate power/speed combo. He should be a doubles machine in Fenway, wearing out the Green Monster. His 27.1 ft/sec sprint was below average, and he only stole 13 bags in 15 attempts in 102 games at Triple-A. He’s not a big power hitter with a low launch and a below average EV (86.2 MPH), so not being able to count on steals hurts his upside. The plate skills are plus with a 14.1%/12.0% K%/BB% at Triple-A, which led to a 135 wRC+, and the hit tool looked good in the majors too with a .280 BA, .278 xBA, and 18.8% K%. He’s 6’3”, 210 pounds and he had a 88.2 MPH EV at Triple-A, so the power will most certainly be better by his mid 20’s. The floor is high, and there is definitely some more upside in the tank. 2024 Projection: 71/13/61/.279/.338/.410/11
297) Brandon Nimmo NYM, OF, 31.0 – Nimmo put up career high power marks everywhere you look. His 9.5% Barrel%, 91.8 MPH EV, 12.2 degree launch, 47.9% Hard Hit% and 24 homers were all career highs. And he didn’t need to cut into his strong K rates at all to do it with a 21.4% K%. He’s not the OBP God he used to be, but a 10.9% BB% is still a major asset in OBP leagues. Baking in some power regression makes sense because he has such a long track record of only moderate homer power, but he was able to maintain the power surge throughout the entire season, and it was a such a big leap that you have to think at least a good portion of it was real and sustainable. 2024 Projection: 91/21/65/.272/.365/.456/4
298) Daulton Varsho TOR, OF, 27.9 – The days of Varsho having catcher eligibility are over, but I don’t think that means you should completely forget about him. He’s a plus defensive outfielder, so his glove should keep him in the lineup, and he has a fantasy friendly power/speed combo with a 20.5 degree launch and 28.1 ft/sec sprint. He also doesn’t have any contact issues with a 23.2% K%. He wasn’t able to take full advantage of the new stolen base rules with a moderate 16 steals, and he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to fully take advantage of his high launch with a 87.8 MPH EV, but the 20 homers and 16 steals are probably on the low end of what he is capable of. With a little better luck, a .240/25/20 season isn’t out of reach. I’m not exactly targeting him, but there is some sneaky buy low appeal here. 2024 Projection: 77/23/75/.230/.300/.427/18
299) Tyler Black MIL, 3B, 23.8 – Defense could be an issue for Black. Milwaukee moved him off 2B, playing the majority of his games at 3B, and he even got some run at 1B. It makes me concerned that he could be in for a part time bench role, at least early in his career. He’s also not the type of beastly masher where defense won’t really matter with a 86.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. But enough of the downsides. Black has plenty to be legitimately excited about with his destruction of the upper minors, slashing .284/.417/.513 with 18 homers, 55 steals, and a 100/88 K/BB in 123 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. As I talked about in the Frelick blurb, you don’t need to be an EV king to be an impact fantasy player if your supporting skills are good, and Black excels with his plus hit tool, elite on base ability, and plus speed. As a lefty, he’s made for the modern game with the new juicier ball, shift rules, and stolen base rules, it’s just a matter of getting him on the field. 2024 Projection: 46/8/39/.248/.329/.389/17 Prime Projection: 86/16/69/.267/.353/.427/32
300) Miguel Vargas LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It feels like eons ago since Miguel Vargas was considered a near elite prospect, but that was just last off-season. What scared everyone off is that he pulled a Gavin Lux on us with extremely underwhelming homer/steal totals (7 homers and 3 steals in 304 MLB PA), and he also only hit .195 despite a strong 20.1%/12.5% K%/BB%. He was then sent back down to the minors on July 8th and never saw the MLB field again. Vargas had his chance and failed to lock in a full time MLB role, and now he’s going to have to fight for his playing time. Betts is locked in at 2B, Muncy is at 3B, Freeman is at 1B, and Ohtani is at DH. He’s a bench bat until an injury happens or Muncy leaves in free agency after the 2024 season. Despite the poor rookie season, he still showed the skills to breakout in the future with his aforementioned strong plate approach, 16.6 degree launch, decent 6% Barrel%, and above average 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He crushed Triple-A again too. He’s just going to have to wait his turn to get another full time shot. 2024 Projection: 39/10/36/.251/.329/.418/7 Prime Projection: 84/24/79/.267/.346/.451/13
301) Harry Ford SEA, C, 21.1 – Ford matched almost exactly what he did at Single-A in 2022, at High-A in 2023. He slashed .257/.410/.430 with 15 homers, 24 steals, and a 19.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 118 games. It was good for a 135 wRC+ (132 wRC+ in 2022). The contact rates are above average, the plate approach is nearing on elite, and he has plus speed. What he hasn’t done all that well is hit the ball hard, which isn’t great, but this is a thick dude with plus bat speed and more raw power in the tank. He also doesn’t have any groundball issues, so he will get the most out of his power. It’s something to consider, but combined with his other skills and still young age, I wouldn’t let it scare you off him. He has yet to play any other position than catcher in his career, so Seattle seems committed to keeping him at the position. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/21/73/.267/.352/.446/17
302) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 20.9 – The only thing holding Williams back from elite prospect status is a 31.8% K% in 105 games at High-A. That is certainly in the danger zone, and it’s a legitimate reason for why he’s not in that elite prospect range. Everything else is there though. He has a plus SS glove, plus power (23 homers), speed (17 steals), OBP (11.5% BB%), and age to level production as a 19 year old for the first half of the season. He’s an excellent athlete and he has projectable size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. The Wander Franco allegations, combined with his plus glove could put him on the fast track to the majors, but I hope that doesn’t happen. He needs more time in the minors to improve his hit tool and gain experience against upper minors pitching. It might be the best thing for Tampa, but it will burn valuable years of fantasy team control when he likely won’t be ready to be an impact player yet. I’m betting on the hit tool improving enough for his power/speed combo to shine, but it might take a few years. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/26/77/.246/.331/.453/21
303) Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 23.7 – Melton is seriously underrated. He is a supreme athlete at 6’3”, 208 pounds with thunder in his bat and plus speed. He hits the ball very hard which led to 23 homers in 99 games, and he’s an excellent base stealer with 46 steals in only 53 attempts. He handled his business at High-A with a 21.1%/12.2% K%/BB%, 18 homers, and 41 steals in 86 games, and while the plate approach wasn’t as good at Double-A with a 28.6%/7.1% K%/BB%, he played well there too with a 117 wRC+, 5 homers, and 5 steals in 13 games. With his level of talent, a 28.6% K% isn’t even that bad, and that was just in his first taste of advanced pitching. He struggled vs lefties with a .653 OPS, so there is some platoon risk, but for how he’s currently being valued, Melton is an easy target. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/81/.248/.322/.468/25
304) Samuel Zavala CHW, OF, 19.9 – Zavala is a baseball prodigy who looks like a 10 year MLB vet at the dish. He went against much older competition at Single-A and slashed .267/.420/.451 with 14 homers, 20 steals, and 26.4%/19.4% K%/BB% in 101 games. It was good for an elite 140 wRC+. He doesn’t jump off the screen with elite size or athleticism, but his swing is sweet as hell, and at 6’1”, 175 pounds, I don’t have any concerns about his ability to grow into more power. I have to at least mention the horrific negative 21 wRC+ he put up in 14 games at High-A to close out the season, but it’s too small of sample to read into. Zavala is starting to get the respect he deserves, but I still think his upside gets underrated. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/25/84/.266/.352/.473/16
305) Zac Veen COL, OF, 22.4 – Veen was likely my worst call in 2023. Not only didn’t the power tick up, it actually got worse with only 2 homers in 46 games at Double-A. My bad. I got it wrong. I talked about it on one of the Mailbag Podcasts during the season, I hate the guy who was clearly wrong, but still tries to convince you that he was actually right, or makes excuses for simply being wrong …. buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut … there is a legitimate reason why Veen’s power disappeared. He was dealing with a hand injury since mid-season of 2022 which ended up requiring surgery in June of 2023, ending his season. Mid-season 2022 is exactly when his power dropped off a cliff. It’s not an excuse for being wrong, period. But looking into the future, he still showed a strong plate approach (21.4%/11.4% K%/BB%) and speed (22 steals), so if he comes into 2024 completely healthy, I might have simply been a year too early on the power breakout. I like him as a buy low this off-season. 2024 Projection: 19/3/16/.236/.300/.385/8 Prime Projection: 81/19/74/.256/.331/.422/30
306) Esteury Ruiz OAK, OF, 25.2 – Ruiz hit .254 with 5 homers, 47 RBI, and 47 Runs in 132 games. His .271 xwOBA was in the bottom 3% of the league and his 82.7 MPH EV was dead last amongst qualified hitters by far (Fraley’s 84.7 MPH was 2nd to last). He was also a below average defensive CF. He simply shouldn’t be starting for a Major League Baseball team, but it’s a good thing that he isn’t on a Major League Baseball team … he’s on the A’s. And for fantasy, you are only buying him for his speed, and his speed is truly elite. He stole 67 bags with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His baserunning is actually so good that it made up for everything I wrote above about him, putting up a positive 1.2 WAR on the season. It was also just his rookie year, so there is hopefully offensive and defensive improvements coming down the line. He’s a one category player who should probably be a 4th outfielder on a real team, but as long as Oakland/Las Vegas refuses to put a real MLB team on the field, Ruiz’ playing time should be relatively safe. 2024 Projection: 63/8/45/.251/.311/.368/64
307) Merrill Kelly ARI, RHP, 35.6 – Kelly had a career year type season with a 3.29 ERA and a career best by far 27% whiff% (25.9% K% is also a career best). It’s hard to buy into it as a true talent leveling up as a 34 year old, but considering he didn’t make his MLB debut until 30 years old, he may just be on a later track. None of his pitches are truly standout, but all of 6 of them are pretty good to varying degrees, led by the above average fastball, changeup, and cutter. The velocity isn’t big with a 92.2 MPH fastball, his control took a step back with a career worst 9.4% BB%, and he outperformed his underlying numbers (3.83 xFIP), but this is his 2nd straight season of very good production. At some point, you can’t stay skeptical. 2024 Projection: 12/3.68/1.21/173 in 175 IP
308) Tim Anderson MIA, SS, 30.9 – Anderson’s struggles seem to go back to a left knee sprain that knocked him out for 3 weeks in April. Before the injury, he looked like himself with a .298 BA and 5 steals in 11 games. After the injury he hit .240 with 8 steals in 112 games. His sprint speed tanked from 28.3 ft/sec in 2022 to 27.2 ft/sec in 2023. There is no way he aged like 5 years in a single off-season. It’s clear he just wasn’t healthy all year. He also suffered a shoulder injury in June, got knocked out by Jose Ramirez in August, and was dealing with a personal marital issue. Players are human beings, and it sure seems like everything came together to tank his 2023 season. I would bet on a bounce back season in 2024, but considering he’s entering his decline years as a speed first, high chase rate player whose speed has been declining even before this year, I would need a real buy low price to grab him. 2024 Projection: 80/14/57/.272/.317/.403/20
309) Robbie Ray SFG, LHP, 32.6 – Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in early May and will be out until mid-season 2024. He put up an elite season in 2021 when his control improved from well below average to well above average levels, and while the control fell back to around average levels in 2022, it was still good enough to let his double plus bat missing ability shine. Keep in mind that control often times is the last thing to come back after Tommy John, so I wouldn’t panic if Ray looks more like his 2015-2020 self when he returns in the 2nd half. I’m already smelling a buy low opportunity next off-season, so even if you are apt to buy the Tommy John surgery discount on him, waiting one more off-season could be the move. 2024 Projection: 3/3.95/1.29/77 in 70 IP
310) Keibert Ruiz WAS, C, 25.8 – Ruiz’ power has been ever so slightly ticking up over the last 3 seasons with a 2.5% Barrel% in 2021, 3.7% Barrel% in 2022, and then finally to an almost average 5.8% Barrel% in 2023. He combined the uptick in power with his already elite contact rates (10.3% K%), and strong launch angle (15.3 degrees) to pop a respectable 18 homers in 136 games. He hit only .260, but there is clearly batting average upside in here too. If his power can take just one more step forward, and at only 25 years old I don’t see why it wouldn’t, he can have some truly impact hit/power fantasy seasons. His value is climbing. 2024 Projection: 59/19/71/.270/.320/.422/3
311) Brendan Donovan STL, 2B/OF, 27.3 – The upright batting stance struck again. Donovan went to a more upright batting stance and used a new bat to increase his power, and it paid off with him jacking 11 homers in 95 games after hitting only 5 homers in 126 games in 2022. His EV jumped 1.6 MPH to 89.3 MPH and his launch increased 4.6 degrees to 10.6 degrees. It didn’t impact his near elite contact skills at all with a 14.3% K% and .284 BA. His season ended on July 29th after undergoing elbow surgery, but he’s expected to be ready for 2024. He’ll never truly be a huge power hitter and he’s not a big base stealer either, so the upside isn’t high, but he’s going to be a very good hitter for the next several years. 2024 Projection: 78/17/59/.282/.371/.428/8
312) Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 31.2 – I was never a roller coaster kid growing up. You could always find me at the rigged basketball carny game with 12 ft hoops and half size rims, so forgive me if I’m not waiting in line to jump back on the Nick Pivetta experience. His career has been one big rollercoaster ride, and his 2023 season feels like when you get to the very top of that 3rd huge drop, hearing every click and creak below you. Pivetta had the best year of his career with a 4.04 ERA and 31.2%/8.5% K%/BB% in 142.2 IP. It was even better in the 2nd half with a 3.27 ERA and 116/22 K/BB in 82.2 IP. His stuff is big with a 94.7 MPH fastball and 4 secondaries that all get whiffs (curve, cutter, slider, sweeper). None of his pitches are dominant, but they are all pretty good. His control has really never been all that terrible, and it was about average this year. There really isn’t anything in his underlying numbers to scare you away. The track record is what is scaring me away, and it worries me a little that this blurb is starting to actually get me excited for him. I don’t want to fall for it, but damn is his profile looking kinda exciting right now. I think I just did a 180 on him from the beginning of this blurb to the end, but I know that I will end up regretting it. 2024 Projection: 11/3.92/1.29/175 in 155 IP
313) Ryan Jeffers MIN, C, 26.10 – I was pumped for Jeffers at this time last off-season, but then Minnesota went and signed Christian Vazquez, which was a head scratcher to me at the time, and ended up an even bigger head scratcher by the end of the season. Jeffers eventually took over the starting catcher job and he ran with it with a .928 OPS and 10 homers in 45 games post all star break. The underlying numbers back up the power with an 11.6% Barrel%, 90.5%/95.4% MPH AVG/FB EV, and 17.2 degree launch. His 117.4 MPH Max EV was the 9th hardest hit ball all-season. The power is double plus. The .276 BA on the other hand was likely a bit of a mirage with a 27.8% K% and .232 xBA, but the 29.1% whiff% isn’t bad at all, so I’m not concerned with the BA tanking. He’s going to have a big season in 2024. 2024 Projection: 66/26/69/.241/.332/.466/2
314) Matt Wallner MIN, OF, 26.4 – Wallner has the Joey Gallo starter kit, although a bit less extreme on both ends. He’s a mountain of a man at 6’4”, 220 pounds, and he’s a good athlete with a well above average 28 ft/sec sprint speed. The power is massive with a near elite 97.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 21 degree launch, and the walk rates are high with a 11% BB%. Those skills led to an outstanding year in the bigs with 14 homers and a 144 wRC+ in 76 games. The one catch, obviously, is the danger zone swing and miss with a 31.5% K% and 36.3% whiff%. That is the type of swing and miss that can tank your dynasty team’s BA. He’s not a good defensive player and he hits righties better than lefties, so along with the hit tool risk, there is platoon risk as well. 2024 Projection: 74/27/77/.232/.336/.479/4
315) Nelson Velazquez KCR, OF, 25.3 – Velazquez see ball, Velazquez smash ball. That is basically the story of Velazquez’ professional career going back to when he was 18 years old. He swings and misses a lot (33.7% whiff%), he hasn’t had particularly high walk rates throughout his career, and he’s bad on defense, but the guy knows how to obliterate a baseball with 17 homers and a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV in just 53 MLB games in 2023. The things he’s deficient in might be a bigger problem in another organization, but KC doesn’t have the type of organizational talent where they can be picky. Beggars can’t be choosers. It sure seems like the playing time will be there for him, and if it is, he’s an easy bet to jack 30 dingers. 2024 Projection: 67/28/76/.238/.311/.489/4
316) MJ Melendez KCR, OF, 25.4 – Melendez would make for a great buy low if he wasn’t in defensive limbo. He’s a terrible outfielder and Salvador Perez is under contract through 2026. He also didn’t catch a single inning after April 30th, so it’s not even a guarantee that he gains catcher eligibility at some point during the season. It’s a shame, because he has monster power breakout written all over him. His 93.2 MPH EV was in the top 4% of the league, he puts the ball in the air with a 16.9 degree launch, and his strikeout issues were manageable with a 28.2% K%. The fact he hit only 16 homers in 602 PA is bonkers, but the 10 homers in 64 2nd half games is much more representative of his true talent level, and even that number is likely low. His aforementioned defensive quandary, his struggles vs. lefties, and his high K rate all add enough risk to his profile to make me a little hesitant to go after him, but man, if they were able to just unleash him behind the plate, I would have been all over this buy low opportunity. 2024 Projection: 74/25/78/.242/.328/.467/7
317) Lawrence Butler OAK, OF, 23.9 – Butler had a weak MLB debut with a 60 wRC+ in 129 PA, but some of the important underlying numbers were relatively encouraging, so I wouldn’t it let hurt your opinion of him. He had a 9% Barrel%, 88.3/93 MPH AVG/FB EV, and 16.2 degree launch. That tells me his big power at 6’4”, 185 pounds is going to translate just fine to the MLB level once he gets acclimated. He also massively improved his hit tool in the minors, going from a 31.9% K% in the lower minors in 2022 to a 18.3% K% in the upper minors in 2023. The fact his 27.1% K% and 29.7% whiff% didn’t get completely out of control against MLB pitching is a pretty good sign the hit tool gains were at least partly for real, even if they weren’t all that great. The one area I will downgrade him for in his MLB debut is his speed. He stole 0 bags with an average-ish 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed, after stealing 21 bags in 89 games in the minors. He should still chip in with a handful, but not sure we should expect big steal totals. He has the type of profile that will get a big boost when Oakland moves to Las Vegas, and will presumably have a much much better hitter’s park. 2024 Projection: 51/18/57/.237/.305/.439/7 Prime Projection: 78/31/89/.250/.326/.482/9
318) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 19.7 – Arias has elite prospect written all over him, and with a good showing in full season ball in 2024, it won’t be long before he skyrockets into the Top 10 overall. He hits the ball hard (6 homers in 27 games in stateside rookie ball), he has speed (17 steals), he has an excellent plate approach (22.3%/20.8% K%/BB%), he’s a good defender, and he has pedigree ($4 million international signing). He most certainly looks the part too with a vicious lefty swing (he went 2 for 11 on the entire season hitting righty). He won’t come super cheap this off-season, but he’s easily worth targeting at his current price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/22/80/.264/.348/.471/24
319) Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.10 – Silseth was very clearly rushed to the majors in 2022 based on team need (6.59 ERA with a 18.6% K%), and I was using it as a buying opportunity headed into 2023, writing in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “Silseth’s poor, rushed MLB debut has him going for a very reasonable price this off-season, because his stuff and minor league performance would have pushed his value much higher if he hadn’t debuted … Use the poor MLB debut as a buying opportunity.” … He was very predictably much better his 2nd run through the majors in 2023 with a 3.96 ERA and 25.3%/11.8% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP. The fastball sits 95 MPH, the splitter is a true put away pitch with a .190 xwOBA, the slider misses a respectable amount of bats with a 33.7% whiff%, and he added a cutter this year which was immediately an above average pitch with a .272 xwOBA. He needs to improve his control to take the next step, and considering he’s always had solid control going back to college, it’s a good bet that he will. 2024 Projection: 9/3.89/1.28/148 in 140 IP
320) Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Baby Randy Johnson didn’t step on the mound until June and he only threw 27 IP, but that’s all it took for the 6’9”, 220 pound lefty to put jaws on the floor. He was untouchable with a 1.33 ERA and 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB% at Single-A on the back of a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. It may seem like he came out of nowhere, but if you read my stuff last off-season you weren’t surprised. He was my top pitcher target relative to value in first year players drafts, writing in the FYPD Strategy Guide, “I know Barriera is everyone’s guy and is getting hyped, but Schultz is my guy. Not saying I don’t like Berriera too, but if hype is any indication, Schultz will be going for a much better value in drafts. He has that funky lefty delivery and very projectable frame. I think he could be a beast.” … beast status is confirmed. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, as a flexor strain is what delayed the start of his season, and a shoulder impingement is what ended it. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 12/3.35/1.13/190 in 160 IP
321) Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – “Scott and the Case of the Missing Stolen Base.” If you look at Fangraphs, Scott led the entire minor leagues with 95 steals. Chandler Simpson was 2nd at 94 and Jonatan Clase was 3rd at 79. But if you look at Baseball Reference and MiLB.com, Scott only tied for 1st with 94 steals. Hmmmm … we need to hire a private dick to investigate the missing stolen base and then turn it into a 30 for 30 documentary. Then we can hire another private dick to figure out why private detectives are called private dicks. As you can clearly see, Scott has double plus speed and elite base stealing ability. He also has a good feel to hit with above average contact rates. He started the year at High-A with a 117 wRC+ in 66 games, and then he proved the skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .323/.373/.450 with 7 homers, 45 steals, and a 14.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 66 games. The power is below average and he had relatively high K rates in college, so there’s definitely a chance he is an Estuery Ruiz like one trick pony, but like Ruiz, that one trick is so elite he can still be an impact fantasy player. Unlike Ruiz, he’s actually in a real organization where he won’t just be handed playing time. It seems likely that he will break into the bigs as a speedy 4th outfielder, and then have to earn more playing time from there. E2024 Projection: 45/8/37/.251/.310/.378/21 Prime Projection: 76/14/54/.262/.322/.398/52 Update: It seems Fangraphs fixed the glitch
322) Charlie Morton ATL, RHP, 40.3 – Morton is certainly in a decline phase, which almost goes without saying for a 40 year old, with an 8 year worst 14% K-BB%, but it didn’t stop him from having yet another good season with a 3.64 ERA and 25.6% K% in 163.1 IP. His control is what took the biggest hit with a 1.43 WHIP and 11.6% BB%, but that is so much worse than his career norms I’m assuming that actually bounces back somewhat in 2024. The stuff is still excellent led by a 94.9 MPH fastball and a double plus curve (42% whiff%), so there are no signs of him falling off a cliff, but you have to at least take into account the possibility. 2024 Projection: 12/3.82/1.27/182 in 165 IP
323) Jonah Heim TEX, C, 28.9 – Heim’s power broke out in 2022 with a 2.3 MPH bump in EV to 89.3 MPH, and he cemented that breakout in 2023 with a 89.2 MPH EV. He always lifted the ball (17.3 degree launch) and he always got the ball on the ball (19.2% K%), so proving the power is real takes most of the risk completely out of his profile. He’s also an elite defensive catcher, as his 22.8 Fangraphs defensive value was 2nd in all of baseball behind only Patrick Bailey, so you don’t have to worry about him losing playing time. 2024 Projection: 67/20/78/.249/.312/.430/2
324) Salvador Perez KCR, C/1B, 33.11 – Perez had the worst offensive year of his career with a career low 86 wRC+, and he’s been a poor defensive catcher for 3 years now. He actually put up a negative WAR in 2023 at negative 0.3. He had a barely positive 0.5 WAR in 2022. He’s an extremely high chase rate player with a 47% chase% and 3.3% BB%, which is a profile that tends to fall off a cliff as it ages (Perez will be almost 34 at the start of 2024). This is a profile I’m staying away from, but having said that, he did get unlucky last year with a .326 xwOBA vs. 302 wOBA. He also hits the ball hard with a 90.1 MPH EV, 15.6 degree launch, and 23.3% K%. Another big power season is far from out of the question. 2024 Projection: 55/26/75/.251/.298/.449/0
325) Eugenio Suarez ARI, 3B, 32.9 – Suarez’ surface stats were down in 2023 with only 22 homers and a .714 OPS in 162 games, but his underlying numbers say he’s the same low BA slugger that he’s been for the past 4 years. He put up a 13.2% Barrel%, 90.3/94.5 MPH AVG/FB EV, 18.9 degree launch, and 30.8%/10.1% K%/BB%. The Mariners had the very worst hitter’s park in baseball last year, so while the D-Backs park is a step up overall, they were actually rated worse for homers than Seattle. I don’t think the ballpark switch changes his value much. 2024 Projection: 74/29/89/.238/.333/.450/2
326) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.4 – If Francisco Alvarez is out of your price range, Vientos is another young Met who might be more your speed, and you should be able to acquire him for next to nothing in most leagues. Like Alvarez, he got unlucky in 2023 with a .267 wOBA vs. .305 xwOBA, and like Alvarez, he has beastly power with a 92.5/97.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. That isn’t even “beastly power,” that is truly elite power. He put up a 94.4 MPH EV at Triple-A too. Speaking of Triple-A, he showed hit tool improvements at the level with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB% in 61 games, and completely demolished the level in general with a 143 wRC+. Showing that kind of swing and miss improvement gives hope he can do the same against MLB pitching with more experience (30.5% K% and 36.7% whiff%). Lack of defensive value is the biggest snafu, but elite power bats tend to force their way into the lineup, and at Vientos’ current dirt cheap price, it’s an easy call to take a shot on him. The Ronny Mauricio injury should also make playing time a bit easier to come by. 2024 Projection: 49/19/60/.236/.315/.450/2 Prime Projection: 77/31/88/.248/.327/.493/2 Update: JD Martinez signing blocks his playing time in the short term, but I still like him long term
327) Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – I named Orelvis a target and buy low last off-season, writing, “Nobody wants to give Orelvis the young for the level bump. I don’t completely understand why. His plate approach was also improving towards the end of the year. So he was young for the level, and he showed improvement at that level in the 2nd half, and he has a no doubt standout tool in his power … I’m buying the dip in value.” Now that he was more age appropriate he unsurprisingly (to me) crushed the level with 17 homers and a 122 wRC+ in 70 games. The improving plate approach from the 2nd half carried over into 2023 with a 20.5%/14% K%/BB%. He then went to Triple-A and performed well there too, slashing .263/.340/.507 with 11 homers and a 26.8%/10.6% K%/BB% in 55 games. He’s never going to hit for a high batting average, but he’s on track to be a beastly power hitter. 2024 Projection: 28/9/36/.219/.292/.425/2 Prime Projection: 79/32/91/.247/.325/.492/5
328) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 23.5 – Mead is the type to make it look easy in the batter’s box. He’s such a natural hitter with a statue of liberty batting stance that coolly sprays liners all over the field. He’s displayed an above average hit/power combo every single year of his career going back to 18 years old. He made his MLB debut in 2023, and while the power wasn’t there with only 1 homer and a 83.5 MPH EV, that advanced plate approach didn’t fail him with a 22.8%/7.6% K%/BB% in 92 AB. Pretty good for his first taste of big league pitching. I have zero concern that he will get that EV up very quickly to fulfil his above average hit/power combo potential, but I would still expect more of a good fantasy player than a great one. He’s not fast with a 26.7 ft/sec sprint, he’s a line drive hitter, and he’s not an extreme pull guy. He’s not a great defensive player and Tampa has a major infield logjam, but I’m not really too concerned about his playing time in the long run. They will find at bats for him if he’s hitting, and it’s only a matter of time before Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz get the Tyler Glasnow treatment. 2024 Projection: 39/10/45/.261/.328/.428/2 Prime Projection: 88/24/82/.278/.346/.469/5
329) Mitch Garver SEA, C, 33.2 – Garver signing with Seattle is a bit of a give and take situation. He has clear path to a full time job at backup catcher/DH, but it’s also a terrible hitter’s park. In 2023, he cranked 19 homers with a 12.6% Barrel%, 90 MPH EV, 20.5 degree launch, and 23.8%/12.8% K%/BB% in 87 games (a knee sprain knocked him out for 2 months earlier in the year). It was good for a 138 wRC+. He’s been inconsistent and injury prone in his career, but when he’s on and healthy, the bat is capable of putting up huge numbers. Opportunity is the most important thing, so the move to Seattle is definitely a bump for his value. 2024 Projection: 69/25/77/.257/.344/.464/0
330) Josh Bell MIA, 1B, 31.7 – Bell came alive after his trade to Miami, putting up a .701 OPS in his first 97 games with Cleveland and a .818 OPS in last 53 games in Miami. It all added up to his usual underwhelming fantasy season with a .247 BA, 22 homers, 52 runs, and 74 RBI. He hits the ball hard (90.1 MPH EV) with a plus plate approach (21.7%/10.2% K%/BB%), but he doesn’t lift it enough (9.3 degree launch), or have enough speed (25.9 ft/sec sprint), to consistently put up big fantasy seasons. 2024 Projection: 76/23/81/.263/.348/.446/0
331) J.D. Martinez NYM, DH, 36.7 – Martinez forgot he was supposed to be on the decline in 2023 and went out and had a beastly season. He EV jumped 4.3 MPH to a career high 93.4 MPH and it led to 33 homers in just 113 games. His .369 xwOBA was in the top 9% of the league, and his 55.1% Hard Hit% was a career high and in the top 2% of the league. He needed to weaken his plate approach to do it (31.1%/7.1% K%/BB%) but you’ll make that trade off every time. There is both injury risk and age related decline, but I don’t think Martinez’ price will all of a sudden skyrocket again, making him a solid target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 68/30/85/.261/.320/.482/1
332) Joc Pederson ARI, OF, 31.11 – Joc is a strong side of a platoon bat who is a poor defender and is starting to get up there in age, but his underlying numbers have been so beastly the last 2 seasons there is still sneaky upside in here. He put up a .367 xwOBA (top 5%) in 2022 and a .366 xwOBA (top 10%) in 2023. He smashes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he has a strong plate approach with a 20.9%/13.4% K%/BB%, and he lifts it with a 15.2 degree launch. He gets a major ballpark upgrade, but Chase Field was actually equally bad for lefty homers that Oracle Park was. It’s still a net positive. 2024 Projection: 76/28/76/.253/.348/.481/2
333) Nathan Eovaldi TEX, RHP, 34.2 – Eovaldi’s great post-season put a halt to what was certainly going to be a major slide in value this off-season. He missed about two months of the season from mid July to mid September with a forearm strain, and when he returned, his velocity and performance were both way down. But then he went into playoff mode and dominated with a 2.95 ERA and 26.8%/6.5% K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. The velocity was still down a bit, but he had velocity to spare, so a 95 MPH fastball is still very good. He’s had injury issues the past two seasons, his velocity, K%, and BB% are all headed in the wrong direction, and he’s now entering his mid 30’s, so it certainly seems he is entering a decline phase, but he has the type of stuff where the slide could be gradual, rather than fall off a cliff. 2024 Projection: 10/3.89/1.19/142 in 155 IP
334) Jon Gray TEX, RHP, 32.5 – Gray took a step back in 2023 from his get out of Coors mini breakout in 2022. He put up a 4.12 ERA with a 21.6%/8.2% K%/BB% in 157.1 IP. The stuff was still big with a 95.7 MPH fastball, the slider was still plus with a 37% whiff%, and the whiff rates were still above average with a 26.3% whiff%. It seems to me the lack of strikeouts were just normal small sample variance. I think his true talent level is closer to what he did in 2022. 2024 Projection: 10/3.90/1.26/159 in 155 IP
335) James Paxton LAD, LHP, 35.3 – Paxton returned like a man on fire in May 2023 coming off his 2nd Tommy John surgery (among a couple other injuries) with a 3.34 ERA and 93/23 K/BB in 86.1 IP, but he ran out of gas with 16 earned in his last 9.2 IP over 3 outings before getting shutdown in September with knee inflammation. The fastball was dropping in velocity throughout the entire season as well. He showed he still has that prime Paxton in him with big velocity (95.2 MPH fastball) and big K rates, but is he only able to maintain that level for shorter bursts now? Signing with LA is obviously the perfect landing spot. 2024 Projection: 9/3.81/1.27/153 in 140 IP
336) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI, OF, 30.6 – Gurriel’s homer power predictably bounced back in 2024 with a career high 24 homers in 145 games after hitting only 5 homers all of 2022. Here is what I wrote for Gurriel in last year’s Top 1,000, “Everything in his underlying numbers are essentially the same (plus contact, plus EV, line drive hitter), so I think it’s just one of those weird things when you hit a round ball with a round bat. His barrel% tanked to 3.8%, but considering everything else was the same, I think it’s an aberration.” The juicier balls definitely helped his profile as well, but his power was going to bounce back no matter what. 2024 Projection: 69/20/80/.272/.321/.454/4
337) Anthony Rizzo NYY, 1B, 34.9 – Rizzo was never the same after colliding with Tatis on May 28th. He was in the midst of a huge year with a .304 BA, 11 homers, and .880 OPS in his first 53 games, but he dropped off a cliff after that with a .496 OPS in his final 46 games. He was then shutdown on August 1st with post concussion syndrome. He’s reportedly doing well now and is expected to be a full go for 2024, so if you want to assume full health and no age related decline, he could have a big year with the juicier balls and new shift rules, like he was taking advantage of before the concussion. But he’s always dealt with back issues and is now into his mid 30’s, so expecting some decline seems prudent. 2024 Projection: 76/27/79/.261/.340/.458/3
338) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 34.5 – Stanton’s BA tanked in 2023 to a career low by far .191, and the underlying numbers back up the decline with a .219 xBA. He had a .211 BA in 2022 as well. His injury woes also continued with only 101 games played. He’s an aging, injury prone, very low BA slugger, but he’s most definitely still a major slugger with a 15.7% Barrel% and 93.3 MPH EV. If he stays healthy, he almost can’t hit fewer than 30 dingers, but betting on him staying healthy seems like a bad bet. 2024 Projection: 67/29/83/.230/.319/.489/0
339) Starling Marte NYM, OF, 35.6 – I implored you to sell Marte in last year’s Top 1,000, writing, “He had a good year overall with a 136 wRC+ in 118 games, which makes this possibly your last chance to truly cash in on Marte. There are multiple red flags popping up.” I hope you listened, because his stock dropped off a cliff in 2023 with a 76 wRC+ in 86 games. He continued to struggle with injuries, dealing with a groin injury that ended his season in August, and his sprint speed dropped off a cliff to a below average 27.1 ft/sec. He still stole 24 bags, showing his base stealing skills are elite enough to handle a speed decline, and he should theoretically be healthier in 2024. He was also unlucky in 2023 with a .276 wOBA vs. .312 xwOBA. Last off-season was your last chance to really cash in on him, but on the flip side, he now actually makes for a reasonably price speed play for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 78/16/61/.265/.319/.411/27
340) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence finally met his match when he made it to Double-A with a 5.47 ERA and 22.2%/9.2% K%/BB% in 54.1 IP. It’s not great to see the production back up so much in the upper minors, but he was very young for the level, and he was blowing past his career high IP (96 IP). He also pitched very well at High-A with a 2.81 ERA and 27.9%/7.3% K%/BB%, and most importantly, he still looks absolutely electric on the mound. The delivery is extremely athletic, the mid to upper 90’s fastball explodes out of his hand, and the change, slider and curve all have plus potential. He doesn’t have prototypical starter size, but I think that is overblown in his case. He still screams ace upside to me, and I would take advantage of the hit to his value in 2023. Pitcher development is especially non linear. I expect him to have a big year in 2024. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/181 in 168 IP
341) Dylan Lesko SDP, RHP, 20.7 – Lesko was a little rusty coming off Tommy John surgery with a 5.45 ERA and 52/22 K/BB in 33 IP split between rookie, Single-A, and High-A, but I wouldn’t read too much into the numbers considering that was basically his spring training, and he was just returning from Tommy John. What you should be reading into was the absolutely filthy stuff is all the way back. He has an electric mid 90’s fastball with an elite, fall off the table changeup, and a potentially plus curveball. He put up a 37.7% K% against High-A hitters, and while he struggled with his control/command, that is often the last thing to return. He has ace written all over him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 14/3.44/1.17/210 in 170 IP
342) Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 26.4 – It’s not 100% clear what role Varland will pitch in, but Minnesota isn’t exactly overflowing with starting pitching talent at the moment, so it seems like a decent bet he will start the year in the rotation. Varland checks off a ton of boxes that you look for in a young pitcher breakout … except one. He throws hard with an above average 95.3 MPH fastball, he has a legit 4 pitch mix, he has plus control with a 6% BB%, and he has above average whiff rates with a 25.9% whiff%. The one thing he doesn’t have is a true wipeout secondary, but Bryce Miller has a relatively similar profile, and everyone loves Bryce Miller. Varland is the discount Bryce Miller. It all led to a 3.81 xFIP (4.63 ERA) with a 25.1%/6.0% K%/BB% in 68 IP split between a starting and relief role, and I would bet on him topping that in 2024. 2024 Projection: 8/4.07/1.25/148 in 145 IP
343) Robby Snelling SDP, LHP, 20.4 – Snelling gives me shades of Andy Pettitte as a big physical lefty. I’m ready to go over there and teach him the cutter myself. Like Pettitte, Snelling also dominated right off the bat (er, mound) in his pro debut with a 1.82 ERA and 118/34 K/BB in 103.2 IP split between Single-A (51.2 IP), High-A (34.2 IP), and Double-A (17.1 IP). He was basically equally as dominant at all the levels. It’s not a direct comp as Pettitte was even bigger with a more athletic delivery and a pretty curveball, but Pettitte wasn’t a finished product at 19 years old either. Snelling throws mid 90’s heat with a potentially plus slider and a developing changeup. He looks like an easy mid-rotation starter to me, and with continued refinement, I wouldn’t rule out top of the rotation. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 12/3.68/1.22/182 in 175 IP
344) Reese Olson DET, RHP, 24.8 – There always seem to be some players in dynasty/fantasy that you just can’t make up your mind on. Reese Olson is one of those guys for me. I went from very high on him, to off him, to lukewarm on him, to back off him, and now back to lukewarm on him. I probably let his terrible Triple-A performance with the automated strike zone get in my head too much with a 6.38 ERA and 12.6% BB% in 36.2 IP, because he handled his business in his MLB debut with a 3.99 ERA and 24.4%/7.8% K%/BB% in 103.2 IP. The stuff is what made me so high on him in the first place with a plus slider that put up a 41.6% whiff%, to go along with two 94.8 MPH fastballs (4-seamer, sinker), a plus changeup (35.9% whiff%) and an above average curve (31.1% whiff%). The whiff rates were well above average at 27.4% and the control with the regular strike zone was also above average with a 7.8% BB%. He got hit very hard with a 90.8 MPH EV against and probably was on the lucky side with a 4.77 xERA, but it was a very strong rookie year. I would hesitate to really pay up big for him because I’ve seen too much inconsistency out of him over the last few years, but his stuff and diverse pitch mix is hard to fade too much. 2024 Projection: 8/4.18/1.28/143 in 140 IP
345) Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 24.9 – Kirk and Danny Jansen are locked in a time share, but between catcher and DH, there seems to be just enough at bats for both of them to keep them in the startable range for fantasy, and Jansen is now out with a broken wrist. Kirk was also the superior defensive catcher, so if I’m leaning one way on playing time, I’m leaning to Kirk. Kirk continued to display an elite plate approach (10.7%/10% K%/BB%), but his exit velocity fell of a cliff to 87.6 MPH (90.5 MPH in 2022) and his launch dropped to 6.3 degrees (8.1 in 2022). It resulted in a down offensive season with a 96 wRC+ and 8 homers in 123 games. He’s hit the ball so much harder in his career, so I have to think the EV will bounce back somewhat, but this still isn’t a high upside fantasy profile, and he also has playing time concerns. Jansen is a free agent after this year, so Kirk should have the job to himself by 2025. 2024 Projection: 48/13/59/.265/.350/.411/0
346) Austin Wells NYY, C, 24.9 – Wells’ MLB debut gave me a ton of confidence that the profile will transfer. He had a 14% barrel%, 89.5 MPH EV, 13.6 degree launch, 18.7% K%, and .367 xwOBA in 75 PA. Boone also praised his defense. He didn’t exactly blow the doors off the upper minors, but he still hit 17 homers in 96 games. The Yankee Stadium short porch is perfect for him, and the bar to clear to be an impact fantasy catcher isn’t very high right now. I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy beast, but I do foresee a top 10 fantasy catcher for years to come. 2024 Projection: 56/18/63/.235/.307/.410/3 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.252/.331/.442/5
347) Michael Busch CHC, 3B, 26.4 – The trade to Chicago gives Busch a huge playing time upgrade. He goes from completely blocked, to the odds on favorite for the 1B job. While he gets a major bump in my rankings, I still think you should have some caution before going all in on him based on his gaudy Triple-A stats. He’s a poor defensive player, so he’s going to have to mash to hold down an everyday job in a relatively crowded organization (especially if Bellinger signs). He hits righties much better than lefties, and he had a terrible MLB debut with a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA. He was utterly dominant at Triple-A (150 wRC+, 27 homers, 18.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 98 games), but he was 25 years old in an extreme hitter’s environment. I think the most reasonable projection is for him to be a good MLB hitter, but not necessarily a great one. 2024 Projection: 63/19/67/.241/.324/.438/3 Prime Projection: 79/27/83/.253/.339/.472/5
348) Cole Young SEA, SS, 20.8 – Young backed up his strong pro debut in 2022 with another great season in his first full year in pro ball, slashing .277/.399/.449 with 11 homers, 22 steals, and a 14.9%/14.5% K%/BB% in 126 games split between Single-A (128 wRC+) and High-A (142 wRC+) He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but the plate skills are nearly elite. The power likely tops out at around average, and he’s not a true burner with mediocre stolen bases skills (26 for 38 in his career), so the upside isn’t super high, but he projects to be an all around, top of the order hitter. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 91/17/62/.281/.362/.431/17
349) Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 22.1 – I’ve given up hope on Ramos getting the respect he deserves. I thought him raking at Double-A would do the trick, but nope. He slashed .271/.369/.457 with 14 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.9%/11.1% K%/BB% in 77 games. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with plus power, a good feel to hit and a good glove. And yet, not only doesn’t he rank highly on mainstream top 100 lists, he’s not even on the lists. It’s a major head scratcher, but for our purposes, it creates another opportunity to scoop him on the cheap. And his path to playing time looks pretty clear at the moment with Moncada’s contract set to expire after this year (2025 club option as well). 2B is also wide open, and there is talk of having Moncada play some 2B this year. 2024 Projection: 11/3/14/.244/.308/.430/1 Prime Projection: 79/26/85/.264/.333/.470/8
350) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.9 – Chicago continued to be aggressive with Caissie’s assignments, sending the 20 year old to Double-A, which usually tells you what an organization thinks about a player. They love Caissie, and he rewarded their love with a monster season. He stared the Southern League pre-tacked ball in the eye and didn’t blink with a 144 wRC+, .918 OPS, and 22 homers in 120 games. Well, maybe he blinked, as the 33.9% K% in the 1st half was much higher than his 27.7% K% in the 2nd half. It got all the way down to 21.7% in his final 21 games, and considering how young he was for the level, I wouldn’t be extra concerned about his hit tool any more than your average high walk rate (14.4% K%), low BA slugger. The raw power is monstrous and he’s a relatively good athlete too. He’s one of the premier power hitting prospects in baseball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/31/92/.248/.339/.492/5
351) Drew Thorpe CHW, RHP, 23.6 – Who needs a huge fastball anyway? Thorpe’s double plus changeup and above average slider was more than enough to obliterate minor leaguers. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 109 IP at High-A, and then he went to Double-A and was even better with a 1.48 ERA and 40%/4.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. He’s a big boy at 6’4”, 225 pounds and his command is very good too. Plus changeup guys can sometimes get exposed against MLB hitters, and the aforementioned fastball only sits low to mid 90’s, which is why I’m hesitant to truly put top of the rotation upside on him, but this is a high floor starter with legit upside who should be up in the bigs very quickly into 2024. 2024 Projection: 6/4.13/1.28/115 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.18/190 in 175 IP
352) Joey Ortiz MIL, SS/2B, 25.9 – The trade to Milwaukee is a huge boost for Ortiz’ value. He was completely blocked in Baltimore, and there is so much more opportunity in Milwaukee both short and long term. With Adames set to hit free agency after this year, it’s clear Ortiz is their SS of the future, and probably the present if they can find a fair deal for Adames this year. Ortiz’ profile starts with a plus glove at SS which is what makes him so enticing as a real life prospect, but he has the offensive skills to be an impact fantasy player as well. He hits the ball quite hard (90 MPH EV at Triple-A and a 88.2 MPH EV in his 34 PA MLB debut), has above average speed (28.1 ft/sec sprint) and has above average to plus contact rates (17.7%/8.2% K%/BB%). The game power and stolen base skills are more moderate than standout, so we likely aren’t talking about a stud, but he can be a strong across the board contributor. 2024 Projection: 68/14/62/.258/.317/.398/14 Prime Projection: 78/18/74/.274/.331/.418/18
353) Alex Verdugo NYY, OF, 27.10 – Maybe the Yankees Stadium short porch is the push Verdugo needs to finally try to adjust his swing to tap into more of his raw power. It’s much much easier said than done of course. He needs to raise his 8.8 degree launch and start pulling the ball more, but if he can pull it off, his plus contact rates (15.4% K%) and above average EV (89.2 MPH) will do the rest. He’s only been an about average hitter over his last 3 seasons, and he’s only an average defensive player (at best) with average speed, so he really needs to try something if he wants to get paid in his contract year. The trade to the Yankees at least gives some hope for a much needed fantasy boost. 2024 Projection: 79/16/79/.271/.329/.429/5
354) Justin Turner TOR, 1B, 39.4 – I wish everyone could decline as gracefully as Turner has. He’s definitely on the downswing with a career worst .336 xwOBA, but he churned out yet another productive fantasy season, finishing 63rd on the Razzball Player Rater with a .276 BA, 23 homers, 86 runs and 96 RBI in 146 games. Fenway is one of the best hitter’s park in the league, so Toronto’s below average park is definitely a downgrade, and at 39 years old, you have to factor in continued decline, but another season of an above average hit/power combo seems to be well within reach. 2024 Projection: 75/21/81/.269/.336/.443/3
355) Thomas Saggese STL, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Saggese broke out in 2022, but many, including me, stayed skeptical because he’s not a big tools guy and the K%/plate approach weren’t particularly great, but some guys are just ballers, and Saggese balled out even harder in 2023. He slashed .306/.374/.530 with 26 homers, 12 steals, and a 22.9%/8.3% K%/BB% in 139 games at mostly Double-A. The same drawbacks that made me hesitant in 2022 are still present. His raw power is only average to potentially above average, he’s not fast, the plate approach isn’t great, and he’s not a big guy at 5’11”. But at some point, it’s silly to keep doubting a guy who is producing to this level. He’s obviously doing something right. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time and I would still hesitate to put big upside on him, but I’m willing to to bet on him being a good MLB hitter at peak at this point. 2024 Projection: 18/5/23/.249/.308/.416/2 Prime Projection: 75/24/82/.266/.328/.444/8
356) Sterlin Thompson COL, 2B/3B/OF, 22.9 – Colorado’s High-A park is one of the most hitter friendly in the minors, and their Double-A park plays more neutral, which is a big part of why you see such a large production drop from so many Rockies prospects at Double-A (see Beck and Yanquiel as well). Thompson was victimized by it as well with a 147 wRC+ in 60 games at High-A versus a 111 wRC+ in 34 games at Double-A. He destroyed the AFL with a .935 OPS in 21 games (0 homers and 7 steals), but the AFL is an extreme hitters park too, so it doesn’t really change my opinion of him in either direction. He’s a 6’4”, 200 pound lefty with a quick and controlled swing that is geared towards line drives. There isn’t really a carrying tool here, but he hits the ball hard and has average to above average potential across the board. 2024 Projection: 20/4/20/.255/.318/.416/4 Prime Projection: 82/20/79/.273/.337/.441/12
357) Brady House WAS, 3B, 20.10 – House bounced back in a big way from a mediocre 2022. He put up a 142 wRC+ at Single-A in 36 games, 145 wRC+ at High-A in 16 games, and 127 wRC+ at Double-A in 36 games. He displayed all the skills that made everyone so excited in the first place with a .312 BA, 12 homers, and 9 steals in 88 total games from an athletic 6’4”, 215 pound frame. His big righty hack is made to do damage, and while the flyball rates have been low so far in his career, it’s the type of profile that projects for an above average to plus hit/power combo with some speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.268/.332/.472/9
358) Drew Gilbert NYM, OF, 23.6 – Gilbert is one of the safest prospects on this list. He does everything well on a baseball field with contact ability (18.9% K%), on base ability (11.3% BB%), power (18 homers), speed (12 steals), and good defense in 116 games at mostly Double-A. The power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough at only 5’9”, 195 pounds to really fly him up prospect lists, but he has a big lefty swing that makes him look much bigger in the box than his listed height, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his power surprised in the bigs. He’s a high floor prospect who might have more upside than his small stature would indicate. 2024 Projection: 41/10/33/.253/.318/.409/7 Prime Projection: 84/20/72/.273/.340/.438/14
359) Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.8 – Selected 12th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the first thing that pops out when watching Troy is his absolute vicious bat speed and rotation. It’s controlled violence at it’s finest. He used that explosive swing to have a monster junior year, slashing .394/.478/.699 with 17 homers, 17 steals, and a 42/35 K/BB in 58 Pac12 games. He’s not a huge tools guy 5’10”, 197 pounds, so the power/speed combo might not be huge on the Major League level, but he at least proved it will transfer to wood bats in pro ball, slashing .247/.343/.447 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 26.3%/12.1% K%/BB% in 23 games at High-A. His hit tool is good, but there is still some swing and miss in his game which popped up in his pro debut. There is definitely a chance the upside might not end up being very high, but he does a lot of things well, and like I highlighted above, the swing is truly impressive to me. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/20/76/.255/.330/.441/20
360) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – De Paula’s stateside debut wasn’t perfect, and it wasn’t the true explosion we were all hoping for, but it was still impressive when taking everything into account. The Dodgers showed how much they loved him by skipping him straight over stateside rookie ball, and he didn’t only hold his own against much older competition, his plate approach and hit tool were actually extremely mature with a 17.9%/13.5% K%/BB%, .284 BA, and 118 wRC+ in 74 games at Single-A. At a broad, athletic, and projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a sweet lefty swing, establishing this level of plate skills is relatively rare and exciting. Usually with these toolsy prospects we have to worry about the hit tool tanking them, but not with Josue. He hit only 2 homers, which is extremely low, so I’m not just going to hand wave it away, but he didn’t hit the ball particularly weakly, and he obviously made zero attempts to sell out for power. The raw power will certainly continue to tick up, which will make for a dangerous combination with his plate skills once it does. He’s not a burner, but he’s a good base runner with 14 steals in 17 attempts. Josue is taking the Juan Soto path, and the off-season after Soto’s 18 year old season were when the biggest trade mistakes were made with Soto (not saying he will be as good as Soto because Soto was even better in a shortened 18 year old season at Single-A). Stay patient on the explosion. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/24/81/.278/.352/.475/12
361) Jace Jung DET, 2B, 23.6 – Jace is following in his big brother Josh’s footsteps by making quick work of the minor leagues. He put up a 136 wRC+ with 14 homers in 81 games at High-A, and then he took it up a notch at Double-A with a 154 wRC+ and 14 homers in 47 games. He has a very mature plate approach (24.2%/13.7% K%/BB%), he lifts the ball (35% GB%), he has plus power, and he has plus bloodlines. Big bro is just a few years ahead of him to give him the lay of the land, lets just hope Jace can miss the shoulder surgery part. He’s an advanced college bat who doesn’t really need much more seasoning in the minors, so I would be surprised if he isn’t up by the 2nd half. 2024 Projection: 35/10/38/.246/.320/.435/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/85/.264/.350/.472/4
362) Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 18th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’4”, 225 pound Wilken is almost the exact definition of a lurking slugger. He quite literally lurks over the plate with an eerily calm and foreboding batting stance which he used to unleash 31 homers in 66 ACC games. He then stepped right into pro ball and raked with a .887 OPS in 47 games split between rookie, High-A, and Double-A. He has the huge EV’s to back up the power. The hit tool and plate approach made big jumps this year with a .345 BA and 58/69 K/BB in college, but he still isn’t expected to hit for much average, and a 36% K% in 6 games at Double-A hints at the hit tool risk. You are buying the monster power here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/31/87/.247/.332/.495/3
363) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.5 – Vargas is basically Josue De Paula 2.0. It’s almost like the Dodgers are especially good at this developing baseball players thing. He’s a projectable and athletic 6’4”, 175 pounds, earning him one of the top international signing bonuses last off-season, and he had a great season in the DSL, slashing .328/.423/.529 with 7 homers, 19 steals, and a 14.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. All of the ingredients are there for him to explode to elite prospect status in the next few years with at least plus power potential, plus athleticism, and plus plate skills. Get in on him now before the mainstream prospect lists start blowing him up next season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.268/.341/.481/13
364) Felnin Celesten SEA, SS, 18.8 – A hamstring injury prevented Celesten from making his pro debut in 2023, so we’ll have to wait for 2024 to see if his production can match the hype. Here was my blurb for him last off-season, and everything still applies as we head into 2024, “Celesten has that super smooth lefty swing (he also hits righty) in the mold of a Marcelo Mayer, George Valera, and Zac Veen. It just screams offensive potential. He’s also an excellent athlete with plus speed. We’ve seen plenty of international prospects with smooth swings just not hit enough against more advanced competition, but it’s hard not to fall in love with the swing and tools. Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market.” … obviously Celesten didn’t have the opportunity to pop, but I nailed my observation that 2023 was the year to jump back into the international player pool market with Ethan Salas and Sebastian Walcott exploding (along with Joendry Vargas and others). I’m staying all in on Celesten for 2024. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.268/.336/.470/22
365) Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – De Vries is the top player in the 2024 international class and is expected to sign for over $4 million. As per his signing bonus, he has almost everything you look for in a potentially elite prospect. He’s a switch hitter at projectable 6’2”, 175 pounds with an extremely quick, loose, and athletic swing. He’s known for his mature plate approach and good feel to hit, and there is certainly plus power potential in here at peak. He’s also an excellent athlete with above average speed. The plate skills give him as high of a floor as you can get for a 17 year old international prospect, and the upside is considerable as well. International prospects are definitely the most mysterious and risky class of prospect to shop in, but when they hit, they hit in a huge way. De Vries is worth taking on the risk. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 89/24/86/.276/.352/.462/18
366) Shota Imanaga CHC, LHP, 30.7 – Imanaga’s stuff isn’t as big as Yamamoto’s, mostly sitting in the low 90’s with the fastball, but he’s a damn good pitcher in his own right. The fastball gets whiffs despite the mediocre velocity, and he combines that with a plus splitter as his main secondary. The slider is solid and he throws a curve too. He pitched against a stacked USA lineup in the WBC and the stuff was good enough to notch a 33% whiff%. The fastball sat 93.5 MPH and the slider and splitter racked up whiffs. He’s been an ace in Japan for years and put up a 2.66 ERA with a 188/24 K/BB in 159 IP this year. I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but all signs points towards him being a good MLB starter, and the strikeout upside is high enough to be an impact fantasy starter as well. If you want the win now pitcher, I can see ranking him as high as 9th overall on FYPD Rankings. 2024 Projection: 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP
367) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 22.8 – Jones stuff is straight fire with a traditional 4 pitch mix led by a 96.4 MPH fastball. The slider is above average, the curve is average, and the changeup is below average. He made quick work of Double-A with a 2.23 ERA and 26.3%/8.9% K%/BB% in 44.1 IP before slowing down at Triple-A with a 4.72 ERA and 28.3%/9.7% K%/BB% in 82 IP. The control is below average and he’s not a physical beast at 6’1”, 190 pounds. It’s hard to say he doesn’t have the ceiling of an ace with that nasty fastball, but there is still a lot of refinement to get there. A high K mid rotation starter seems more reasonable. 2024 Projection: 9/4.13/1.31/138 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.26/176 in 165 IP
368) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – Stone had a truly horrific MLB debut with a 9.00 ERA and 14.5%/8.6% K% in 31 IP, but I’m trying not to panic. We only have to look at Brandon Pfaadt to be reminded to keep our heads when a top pitching prospect gets demolished in their debut. Pfaadt is just one of many examples (Jose Berrios immediately comes to mind as well). If you’re looking for silver linings, his stuff did a solid job of missing bats with his changeup putting up a 41.4% whiff%, his slider putting up a 40% whiff%, and his 4-seamer putting up a 23.5% whiff%. His stuff didn’t even get hit insanely hard either with a merely below average 8.7% barrel%. It certainly wasn’t a good year with his fastball velocity taking a step back to 94 MPH, and he wasn’t great at Triple-A either with a 4.74 ERA in 100.2 IP, but I think the prudent thing to do is to look at this year as a developmental bump in the road, rather than a true disaster. His value takes a hit, but you certainly shouldn’t be close to throwing in the towel on him. And his strong spring shows it was smart to not sell too low on him, as he’s looked good and has locked in the 5th starter job. 2024 Projection: 8/4.09/1.29/135 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/173 in 165 IP
369) AJ Puk MIA, LHP, 28.11 – Tanner Scott took the closer job away from Puk in the 2nd half of the season, but that had just as much to do with Scott’s dominance than it had to do with Puk. Puk didn’t pitch poorly at all with a 3.97 ERA (3.02 xERA) and 32.2%/5.4% K%/BB% in 56.2 IP. Those K/BB numbers are elite, and the stuff is near elite with a plus 95.8 MPH fastball/sweeper combo. Miami is transitioning him back into a starter, which is a super fun decision, and I am all for it. He also seems to have a spot at the moment with Garrett’s shoulder injury. Puk is a great upside pitching target. 2024 Projection: 8/3.81/1.26/145 in 130 IP Update: Puk looks really exciting in spring and there is no reason not to go after his upside
370) Robert Suarez SDP, Closer Committee, 33.1 – Suarez seems to be the favorite for the closer job, but that feels very tentative with San Diego signing Matsui and Go this off-season, so you can’t really bank on it right now. He also didn’t pitch particularly well in 2023 with a 4.23 ERA and 22.2%/9.3% K%/BB% in 27.2 IP (he missed the first half of the season with an elbow injury). He has prototypical closer stuff with a 97.7 MPH fastball and a bat missing, plus secondary in his changeup, while neither Matsui nor Go have fastballs that reach those heights. He also put up a 2.27 ERA with a 31.9% K% in 2022, so he has the ability to put up near elite closer numbers. The leash won’t be long, and he could get traded at any time, but he seems to be the best bet at the moment in SD. 2024 Projection: 4/3.44/1.13/65/25 saves in 60 IP
371) Jose Abreu HOU, 1B, 37.1 – Abreu’s decline came fast and swift with a career worst by far 86 wRC+ and .310 xwOBA in 141 games. But it came almost too fast and too swift to think it was 100% age related decline. And he was also much better in his final 82 games with 17 homers and a .783 OPS vs. his first 59 games with 1 homer and a .533 OPS. He’s 37 years old and he required a couple of cortisone shots in his back in the 2nd half, so I do think he is in the midst of a real age related decline, just not nearly as bad as his 2023 season would indicate. He should bounce back somewhat in 2024. 2024 Projection: 74/23/85/.267/.339/.445/0
372) Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 23.11 – The Diamondbacks seem committed to Alek Thomas in center for 2024, but we all know it’s Druw Jones’ job to lose in the long run. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, because in the present, Thomas looks set up to have a breakout season, and his 71 wRC+ in 402 PA should make his price dirt cheap. He hits the ball quite hard for his type of profile with a 88.9/93.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, he’s very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed, and he has no contact issues with a 21.4% K% that should only improve from here. The homer/steal totals aren’t huge (13 homers and 11 steals in 461 PA including the playoffs) because he has a low launch at 2.2 degrees and he’s never been a successful base stealer, but he went 11 for 12 on the bases this year with the new rules, so if he can get on base more in 2024, I can see him approaching 20 steals. A low launch is fine for his profile, but with how hard he hits the ball, even bringing it up a few degrees can make a big difference. Thomas is a low key, don’t stick your neck out for him, but put a star next to his name type target for me. 2024 Projection: 76/16/59/.255/.310/.413/16
373) Ryan McMahon COL, 3B/2B, 29.3 – Despite playing in Coors and hitting the ball tremendously hard (11.4% Barrel% and 90.8 MPH EV), McMahon still hasn’t been able to put up a year that you would describe as anything better than solid. He’s actually never put up an above average wRC+. His 9.7 degree launch and 31.6% K% is what’s holding him back from having that huge year, and at 29 years old, this is just clearly who he is. 2024 Projection: 75/23/75/.246/.326/.432/6
374) Mitch Haniger SEA, OF, 33.4 – Haniger had the worst year of his career with 6 homers and a 73 wRC+ in 61 games. He battled an oblique injury to start the year, and then broke his forearm which knocked him out 2.5 months mid year. The injuries obviously played a role in the down year, and he was also unlucky on top of it with a .274 wOBA vs. 316 xwOBA. He still smashed the ball with a 91 MPH EV, so the odds of a power bounce back are very high, and he got traded out of SF’s platoon nightmare. Considering his age, poor hit tool (28.4% K%), and poor ballpark, he’s not a target, but he should get back to making an impact in homers. 2024 Projection: 68/27/79/.243/.314/.441/3
375) Kris Bryant COL, OF, 32.3 – Bryant had his 2nd straight injury marred season with only 80 games played, but unlike 2022, his numbers took a dive this year with a 73 wRC+. His EV was at a cover your eyes 85.7 MPH for the 2nd year in a row, and his 20.3%/8.7% K%/BB% with a 26.4 ft/sec sprint is not good enough to make up for it. He’s not that old at 32, and he still has Coors at his back, so it wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest if he put together a strong season, but it sure does seem like his body is breaking down a bit. He’s also never put up particularly great contact or EV numbers, so even fully healthy the upside probably isn’t super high. 2024 Projection: 76/19/71/.262/.334/.447/2
376) Harrison Bader NYM, OF, 29.10 – Bader lands in a perfect situation and looks locked into the Mets starting CF job. He’s a plus defensive CF with plus speed (28.8 ft/sec) and above average contact rates (17.2% K%), but he hasn’t been able to hit the ball hard enough to really do damage in his career (85.9 MPH EV). He put up a 85 wRC+ in 2022, a 70 wRC+ in 2023, and he has a career 92 wRC+, so it’s hard to expect anything but below average production. He’s a terror on the bases though with 20 steals in just 98 games, so if gets full time playing time, he could rack up 30+ steals, and he has a 17.8 degree launch, so he’ll get the most our his raw power. The power/speed combo makes him fantasy relevant, but he might hurt you everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 68/16/61/.241/.301/.395/28
377) Brice Turang MIL, 2B/SS, 24.4 – Turang had a poor MLB debut with a 60 wRC+ in 137 games, because he just couldn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 2.9% Barrel% and 85.5 MPH EV, but everything else is there for a fantasy explosion if he can just bring his EV up to his Triple-A levels (87.8 MPH in 50 BBE). He has double plus speed (26 steals with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint), a good feel to hit (21% K%), a solid plate approach (27.3% chase% and 8.5% BB%), and he’s a good defensive player. He’s never going to hit for big power, but just one small step forward would go a long way. He’s currently penciled in for a strong side of a platoon role at 2B (he struggles vs. lefties), so it looks like he will have plenty of opportunity in 2024. He’s nice late round speed flier. 2024 Projection: 68/11/56/.252/.324/.391/29
378) Luis Rengifo LAA, 2B/3B/SS/OF, 27.1 – Rengifo’s raw power took a big jump with a 2.2 MPH bump in EV to 89.1 MPH, and it resulted in him leveling up with a career best .783 OPS and .323 xwOBA. He’s a line drive hitter (11 degree launch) with limited speed (6 steals and a 27.3 ft/sec sprint) and a good, but not great hit tool (.264 BA), so he’s still not super enticing for fantasy, but now he’s at least interesting for medium to deeper leagues, or as a versatile bench bat/low end starter in shallower leagues. A ruptured biceps ended his season in early September, but he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. 2024 Projection: 72/19/76/.259/.326/.438/8
379) Brandon Drury LAA, 1B/2B, 31.7 – Drury handily outperformed his underlying numbers for the 2nd year in a row with a .339 wOBA vs. .318 xwOBA, and while he’s generally outperformed his underlying numbers in his career, he hasn’t done it to this level (career .319 wOBA vs. .311 xwOBA). He hits the ball hard with an 11% Barrel% and 89.9/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, so it’s not like he’s a complete mirage or anything, but a 11.8 degree launch and 26%/4.8% K%/BB% is just not screaming upside. He hit 28 homers in 138 games in 2022 and 26 homers in 125 games in 2023, but those numbers feel more like a ceiling to me than a reasonable expectation moving forward. 2024 Projection: 71/24/82/.256/.307/.460/1
380) J.P. Crawford SEA, SS, 29.2 – Crawford’s power exploded in 2023 with a career high by far 19 homers, 15.1 degree launch, and 88.3 MPH EV in 145 games. His previous career high in homers was 9. And he managed to do it with barely impacting his plate approach with an excellent 19.6%/14.7% K%/BB%. 19 homers is still obviously not a majorly impactful number, and his 90.8 MPH AVG/FB EV shows that is also closer to a ceiling than something he will build on. His .266 BA and 3 steals keeps his value in check as well. The power uptick helps in Runs and RBI, so Crawford’s value takes a major jump, but this still isn’t a sought after fantasy profile. 2024 Projection: 89/17/61/.260/.360/.421/3
381) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 31.2 – The king of underperforming the underlying numbers did it again, but this time the underlying numbers were so good it still resulted in a good season with a .362 xwOBA vs. .348 wOBA. His 124 wRC+ was a career high and he did by hitting the ball much harder with a career high 91.9 MPH EV and 12.2% Barrel%. It still resulted in only 24 homers with a .260 BA and 1 steal, so I wouldn’t get too excited even if he can fully keep up the newfound power. 2024 Projection: 74/24/70/.257/.333/.448/3
382) Rowdy Tellez PIT, 1B, 29.0 – Tellez landed in a perfect spot with an up and coming Pitt team. He also claimed his down 2023 was due to injury, so there is added hope of a bounce back. He dropped off a cliff in 2023 with 13 homers, a .215 BA and a 78 wRC+ in 351 PA. He was being used as a strictly strong side of a platoon bat for most of the year, and Milwaukee decided not to tender him a contract in his final year of arbitration. He still hits the ball hard with a 8.7% Barrel% and 89.9 MPH EV, and he still has a solid plate approach with a 24.5%/10.0% K%/BB%, so he’ll have every opportunity in Pitt to prove 2023 was due to injuries. He’ll certainly sit vs. plenty of lefties, but he’s in line for a ton of at bats. 2024 Projection: 62/24/77/.242/.323/.447/1
383) Bryan De La Cruz MIA, OF, 27.4 – Cruz is a well below average defensive player and he’s been an about average hitter the past two seasons. That is not a recipe to keep your job, but the one thing he has going for him, is that he’s massively underperformed his underlying numbers over the past two years. He put up a .313 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA in 2022 and a .309 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA in 2023. There is clearly upside for him to be better than just an average hitter. He hits the ball fairly hard (89.9 MPH EV), but he has a line drive approach (11.8 degree launch) with below average whiff rates (28.7% whiff%), below average walk rates (6.4% BB%), and low stolen base totals (4 steals). Even if he does come closer to his underlying numbers, the fantasy upside isn’t going to be huge. 2024 Projection: 64/20/77/.269/.318/.437/5
384) Jake Fraley CIN, OF, 28.10 – Fraley is capped as a strong side of a platoon player because he’s terrible vs. lefties (.482 career OPS) and he’s also a below average defensive player, but injuries could open up more at bats for him in the early going. The below average defensive player part also gives him added risk of being just a bench player long term, because his 84.6 MPH EV is dangerously low. I don’t want to be too down on him though, because this was the 3rd year in a row he was an above average offensive player in both the surface stats and underlying stats. The new rules also play perfectly for him as a lefty with a contact (18.7% K%)/speed (21 steals with a 28 ft/sec sprint)/lift (16.5 degree launch) profile at Great American Ball Park. How much PT he gets in a crowded organization is still questionable, but he should produce impact fantasy numbers when he’s out there. 2024 Projection: 73/17/73/.253/.335/.430/25
385) Drew Waters KCR, OF, 25.3 – You may not be able to tell from his surface stats, but Waters leveled up from his 2022 MLB debut. He brought his K% down 4.9 percentage points to 31.8%, his EV up 3.3 MPH to 87.4 MPH, his launch up 6.8 degrees to 17.2, and his xwOBA up from .296 to .313. His wRC+ dropped from 124 to 82, but the underlying numbers are more important in this case. He has plus speed with a 28.7 ft/sec sprint and 16 steals in 98 games. He also has a career 10.6% Barrel%, so there is definitely juice in his bat. If his hit tool can take one more step forward (.228 BA), there is real explosion potential here, and even if it can’t, the power/speed combo will keep him fantasy relevant if he ends up with full time at bats. He’s going to have to battle for those at bats though. 2024 Projection: 56/14/48/.239/.316/.410/24
386) Tommy Pham FRA, OF, 36.1 – Pham is aging very gracefully with few to zero signs of decline. Hit hit 16 homers with 22 steals and a .256 BA in 129 games, and the underlying numbers back it up with a 92.3 MPH EV, .361 xwOBA, 27.8 fts/sec sprint and a 22.0%/9.8% K%/BB%. This is around the age where numbers can fall off a cliff, so you should still be careful, but there are no signs of that happening quite yet. 2024 Projection: 76/18/74/.254/.326/.440/20
387) Alex Lange DET, Closer, 28.6 – Lange wasn’t able to fully repeat his strong 2022 breakout with his control falling apart with a 15.6% BB%, but it was much better to close out the season with a 8.5% BB% in his final 20 IP, and he misses so many bats it makes you want to ignore the control risk. His 39.1% whiff% is in the silly elite range, and he does it on the back of an at least plus slider (48.4% whiff%) and elite changeup (.170 xwOBA and 44.7% whiff%). He throws gas with a 95.8 MPH sinker, but that pitch got demolished with a 92.7 MPH EV against and .422 xwOBA. He was shaky enough throughout the season that he couldn’t fully nail down the closer job to himself with Jason Foley mixing in, but he was still the main guy, and it seems like it’s his job to lose in 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/3.52/1.26/85/25 saves in 65 IP
388) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 25.7 – Mitchell’s swing and miss is in that truly scary danger zone where you can’t just ignore it. He had a 35.6% K% and 39.7% whiff% in 73 MLB PA in 2023. He had a 41.2% K% in 68 MLB PA in 2022. It’s a major problem. He’s also not a huge home run hitter despite hitting the ball hard with a low launch angle. Lots of strikeouts and groundballs are not a recipe for success, no matter how fast you are. Having said that, Mitchell has actually been quite successful in his MLB career with a 119 wRC+ in 141 career PA. He has a 10.8% barrel% and 29.3 ft/sec sprint. The fantasy upside is so enticing, but the hit tool issues combined with the crowded organization puts him more in the nice bench stash category for me. 2024 Projection: 44/8/37/.235/.306/.420/14
389) Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 26.5 – Kirilloff’s recurring wrist issues knocked him out for the first month of the season as he was recovering from the surgery he underwent on August 2022, and then just when it seemed like he put the injury bug behind him, he suffered a shoulder injury in late July that ended up requiring surgery in October 2023 (nothing was found torn, so it was just a cleanup). It’s a true shame that he can’t stay healthy, because he was always destined to be a damn good MLB hitter, and he was starting to show that potential this year with a 120 wRC+ in 88 games. The underlying numbers don’t jump off the page, but he was solid all around with a .333 xwOBA. Considering the injuries, lack of defensive value, struggles vs lefties (.482 OPS in 56 PA), and lack of a true standout skill, he’s not someone I’m going after, but I still don’t doubt Kirilloff will put up a nice offensive season if he can just stay healthy. 2024 Projection: 64/17/69/.265/.335/.442/1
390) Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 25.2 – Joey Wiemer has a hit tool problem with a .204 BA, .210 xBA and 28.3% K% in his 410 PA MLB debut. I might not be as concerned about it if he were in another less crowded organization, but even assuming Milwaukee doesn’t make any free agent additions, he’ll have to battle for OF/DH PT with Chourio, Frelick, Yelich, and Mitchell. Opportunity is a major factor in success, and that includes being given a long leash to figure it out and make adjustments. I just don’t see Wiemer getting that long leash. If I were more confident in his playing time projection, I would 100% still like him a lot. He has plus power at 6’5”, 215 pounds with a 9.1% barrel% and 89.3 MPH EV, and he has plus speed with a 28.9 fts/sec sprint. He’s also a plus defensive player. The 28.3 K% and 33.6% whiff% aren’t really that bad of a starting point at all for him in his rookie year. He’ll compete for a job this spring, and maybe he can prove to Milwaukee he’s made hit tool improvements during spring training, but until that happens, I’m assuming he’s going be a part time player in 2024. 2024 Projection: 55/17/55/.228/.305/.413/17
391) Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Beck’s wRC+ went from 150 in 76 games at High-A to 108 in 50 games at Double-A. His K% jumped from 20.8% to 31.8%. A drop off in stats like this is always a reminder of how impressive it is when some players get to Double-A and don’t miss a beat, but plenty of impact major leaguers struggled in their first taste of the upper minors before making adjustments the next year, so you shouldn’t get too scared off. And Beck is the type of athlete you don’t want to get scared off from with a plus power/speed combo from a 6’3”, 225 pound frame. He jacked 25 homers with 20 steals and a 12.9% BB% in 126 total games. Even with a below average hit tool, he has the ingredients to be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 12/3/15/.223/.302/.413/4 Prime Projection: 76/25/81/.240/.320/.457/14
392) Yanquiel Fernandez COL, OF, 21.3 – Fernandez’ plate approach got exposed at Double-A with a 32.9%/6.3% K%/BB% in 56 games, which led to a 69 wRC+. He utterly obliterated High-A with 17 homers, a 148 wRC+, and a 17.9%/5.2% K%/BB% in 58 games, and he was very young for Double-A at only 20 years old, but considering he has limited defensive value, it’s not great. His lefty swing is a thing of beauty and his double plus power is a carrying tool, so I still like him a lot, but I am concerned he could be the type of prospect the Rockies don’t just hand a starting job to. The bat is going to have to hit it’s ceiling to hold down a full time job. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/28/87/.248/.319/.480/3
393) John Cruz NYY, OF, 18.7 – If Cruz were eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft, his hype would be through the roof. He has the scout’s dream build at a projectable 6’3”, 171 pounds, and it comes with a quick and powerful lefty swing. It resulted in him ripping up stateside rookie ball as a 17 year old, slashing .294/.376/.531 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. Power, speed, build, production, age to level … this is everything you look for in a shooting star prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/27/87/.251/.324/.473/12
394) Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.1 – Pitcher’s don’t usually make big moves in either direction in their pro debut, but Waldrep bucked that trend. His double plus mid to upper 90’s fastball/splitter combo put up a 33.3% K% and 1.53 ERA in 29.1 IP spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). He also throws a curve and slider that both have plus potential. There is zero doubt about the strikeout ability with a 34.7% K% in 101.2 IP in the SEC in 2023 as well. The reason he only got selected 24th overall though, is that there is definitely some risk in his profile. The control is well below average with a 12.7% BB% at college and a 13.0% BB% in pro ball. He also had a mediocre college season with a 4.16 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and the K/BB numbers weren’t quite as impressive in the upper minors with a 16/10 K/BB in 14.1 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. Ending up in Atlanta is a great landing spot as they know what they are doing when it comes to pitching, so I’m more apt to go after him now than I would have been if he went to a lesser organization. And if you go K chasing in fantasy, which I do, Waldrep is mighty enticing despite the risk. 2024 Projection: 3/4.13/1.35/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.28/185 in 165 IP
395) Zack Littell TBR, RHP, 28.6 – You have to be a damn fool to doubt Tampa in any way, and mama didn’t raise no fool. With Shane Baz announcing he is on a delayed schedule until “early to mid-season,” Littell looks locked into a rotation spot, and he’s now someone I’m going after everywhere. He went against essentially Minnesota’s real lineup yesterday and went 3 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/1 K/BB. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 4/1 K/BB in 5 IP on the spring. The velocity was down a tick, but assuming he’s just easing into things, his 94+ MPH fastball in 2023 was actually already very good with with a strong .290 xwOBA and 21.8% whiff%. His control entered elite territory with a 3.2% BB%, and while his secondaries aren’t great, he added a sweeper to the arsenal in the 2nd half which was immediately his best secondary with a .247 xwOBA and 30% whiff%. He’s also been working on the now very popular splitter that he’s been incorporating into him arsenal more and more over the past couple years. If he really takes off with any of his secondaries, he’s going to be a major issue, and even if he doesn’t, double plus control of a good fastball will play. I mean, how many times does Tampa have to pull a rabbit of their hat for us to even stop questioning it even a little? Littell is currently going 344th overall in the NFBC and is going to be an afterthought in so many dynasty leagues. Easiest call ever is to grab this guy from the bargain bin in all league sizes. 2024 Projection: 7/3.92/1.26/113 in 130 IP
396) Luis Campusano SDP, C, 25.6 – Campusano missed 3 months of the season after undergoing left thumb surgery in mid April, but when he returned, he finally had his breakout on the MLB level. He massively improved his contact rates, bringing his K% all the way down to 12% and his whiff% all the way down to 18.1%, and it led to a .319 BA and .300 xBA in 174 PA. The power is average with 7 homers, a 88.5 MPH EV and 13.2 degree launch. The rest of his profile is little lacking though. He’s still a below average catcher, he’s very slow with a bottom 14% of the league sprint, and the plate approach is bad with a 4% BB% and 35.5% Chase%. He’s always had a good bat in the minors, so it’s not surprising to see him figuring it out, and he now looks locked into the starting catcher job at this point in the off-season. 2024 Projection: 53/16/61/.256/.311/.418/0
397) Andrew Benintendi CHW, OF, 29.9 – Neil Young said “it’s better to burn out than fade away,” and Andrew Benintendi is showing us why. He’s just slowly fading into fantasy irrelevance with 5 homers, 13 steals, a .262 BA and an 87 wRC+ in 2023. This is a guy who was the 7th overall pick in the draft and went 20/20 in his rookie year, but it’s been all downhill since then. He has a big contract, he gets the bat on the ball (14.3% K%), and he should hit atop Chicago’s mediocre lineup, so you can’t completely ignore him, but he’s a very low end option. 2024 Projection: 74/12/53/.271/.332/.398/12
398) Ty France SEA, 1B, 29.9 – France’s light hitting ways finally caught up with him with a lackluster 12 homers and .250 BA in 158 games. He definitely got unlucky with a .270 xBA and .342 xwOBA (.315 wOBA), but a 87.5 MPH EV, 13.7 degree launch, and 25.0 ft/sec sprint speed just isn’t anything to get too excited about. I’ve poured cold water on France in my rankings every year, and I’m surely not going in on him now. 2024 Projection: 76/17/76/.270/.344/.419/1
399) Michael Conforto SFG, OF, 31.1 – Conforto had a predictably mediocre season coming off shoulder surgery and going into one of the worst hitter’s parks in baseball. He hit 15 homers with a .718 OPS in 125 games. The underlying numbers were down a bit, but nothing was too far from career norms, so I would expect him to tick up in his 2nd year back from the surgery, but he’ll still have to contend with Oracle Park, and he’s in a strong side of a platoon role. 2024 Projection: 69/20/69/.248/.341/.428/3
400) Jose Siri TBR, OF, 28.8 – Siri is a plus defensive CF and Tampa really isn’t all that deep in the OF. His job seems relatively secure despite the horrific 35.7%/5.5% K%/BB%, and he has that super fun power/speed combo which makes him enticing in fantasy. He hits the ball in the air (14.4 degree launch) with solid EV’s (88.4 MPH) and he has elite speed with a 29.8 ft/sec sprint. It led to 25 homers and 12 steals in just 101 games. Short of a complete disaster (which is possible due to the plate approach), I think Tampa is going to run him out there nearly everyday. If your BA/OBP can take the hit, Siri could be a homer/steal difference maker. 2024 Projection: 69/21/67/.220/.275/.420/17
401) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 23.8 – Rojas jumped straight from Double-A to the majors and put up great surface stats with a .302 BA, 2 homers, and 14 steals in 59 games, but the underlying numbers weren’t nearly as impressive. He had a far below average .267 xwOBA and had a single barrel in 113 batted balls. The 86.6 MPH EV is low and the plate approach is rough with a 25.6%/3.0% K%/BB% and 40.4% chase%. His speed is truly elite with a 29.5 ft/sec spring and he’s a plus defensive CF, so if his defense keeps him on the field, his speed will make him a very relevant fantasy player despite the very likely below average offensive production everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 52/8/39/.258/.309/.388/27
402) Brent Rooker OAK, OF, 29.5 – Rooker mashes with 30 homers, a 91.6/95.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, and 17.6 degree launch in 137 games, but it comes with a danger zone whiff% at 38.2%, and he’s a terrible defensive player. Being in Oakland eases some of that playing time risk, but not all of it as Lawrence Butler and Denzel Clarke could eat into his playing time if he isn’t raking. Rooker is a high risk power bat who will give you homers and nothing else even if things are going well. 2024 Projection: 63/27/70/.230/.318/.450/3
403) Jonny DeLuca TBR, OF, 25.9 – There are currently multiple paths to playing time for DeLuca, so if he hits well, he should get plenty of playing time. And Tampa is almost definitely the best team to get the most out of his offensive profile. In his pro debut, he put up plus contact rates (17.8% K%) with a 61.8% pull% and low EV’s (83.7 MPH EV). That’s almost Isaac Paredes like, except Paredes hits the ball in the air a lot more than DeLuca (8.7 degree launch). But what DeLuca has that Paredes doesn’t is elite speed with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s already showing Paredes like magic with an average-ish 102 wRC+ and 5.9% Barrel% despite the low EV, and the EV was much better at Triple-A (86.1 MPH). He’s also generally hit plenty of flyballs in the minors, so that launch should come up. If it all comes together, DeLuca can be Paredes with more speed and less power. 2024 Projection: 45/10/38/.253/.317/.416/6 Prime Projection: 79/18/66/.266/.328/.431/16
404) Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Shane Spencer always comes to mind when thinking about older, out of nowhere, crazy MLB debuts. Spencer hit 10 homers with a 1.321 OPS in 27 games in 1998, and then never put up an OPS over .800 again in his career. Schneider hit 8 homers with a 1.008 OPS in 35 games this year. He was already starting to regress hard with a .268 OPS in his final 10 games. He was majorly lucky with a .424 wOBA vs. .353 xwOBA. He had a 37.3% whiff%, 30.5% K%, and a .214 xBA. I’m just saying to be careful about valuing Schneider super high in trades and drafts this off-season, but I do think he can become a solid MLB hitter. He obliterated Triple-A with a 142 wRC+, he hits the ball hard with a 94.6 MPH FB/LD EV, he lifts the ball with a 26 degree launch, and he gets on base with a 14.9% BB%. He looks like a low BA, high OBP slugger with a handful of steals. 2024 Projection: 74/25/77/.238/.321/.450/6
405) Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 11th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Schanuel is a classic Angels first round pick as a safe, fast moving college bat. And boy did he move fast as they sped him through the minors, jumping straight from Double-A to the majors on August 18th. To their credit, Schanuel was ready for the challenge with a 14.5%/15.2% K%/BB% and 112 wRC+ in 29 games. He put up a 14/71 K/BB in 59 games in Conference USA, and a 9/16 K/BB in 17 games at Double-A, so the plate approach certainly looks to be in the elite range. The problem is that the power/speed combo is majorly lacking. He put up a lowly 85.4 MPH EV with a 6.5 degree launch and 26.8 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors. It resulted only 1 homer and 0 steals. He hit the ball very weakly in the minors too with a 10.3% Hard Hit% and only 1 homer in 22 games. He did hit for more power in college with 19 homers this year, and he’s 6’4”, 220 pounds, so there is certainly more in the tank, but it doesn’t look like power is going to be a major part of his game. Buying a hit tool first 1B isn’t my optimal strategy, so I’m not overly high on Schanuel, but calling him the safest, most proximiest (I know that isn’t a word) bat in first year player drafts is an understatement. 2024 Projection: 80/15/70/.270/.355/.400/5 Prime Projection: 92/18/73/.291/.382/.437/6
406) Jairo Iriarte CHW, RHP, 22.4 – Iriarte looks absolutely electric on the mound with a whip quick arm and athletic delivery from a skinny and projectable 6’2” frame. He uses that delivery to throw fire stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that has nasty movement on it, a vicious plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. It all led to a 3.49 ERA with a 33.2%/11.7% K%/BB% in 90.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. Honestly, he had the year I thought Tink Hence was going to have, and the profiles are pretty similar. Iriarte’s control isn’t as good with a high walk rate, which adds some risk to the profile, but he has the type of arm to go after. 2024 Projection: 3/4.07/1.34/64 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.73/1.28/175 in 155 IP
407) Chase Hampton NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Hampton wasn’t quite able to keep up the breakout at Double-A with his ERA jumping from 2.68 at High-A to 4.37 at Double-A, and his K% dropping from 40.5% to 27.4%, but that shouldn’t put a damper on his excellent season, because he has the big stuff to get excited about. He’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change). The command is solid. With the production taking a step back against more advanced competition, I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but I certainly think he can be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter at peak. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.33/86 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/177 in 170 IP
408) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.1 – If Robo Umps come to the majors in the future, it will take framing away as a catcher skill, but blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners on the bases will still be super important, so I wouldn’t assume catcher defense will just be thrown to the curb. On that note, Rushing isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, so it puts a lot of pressure on his bat to max out. He was far too advanced for High-A with a 146 wRC+ on the back of a .404 OBP in 89 games, as an advanced 22 year old college bat should be, but the 15 homers, .228 BA, and 24.4% K% aren’t quite as impressive. His numbers likely would have been better if he didn’t suffer a concussion from a getting hit by a backswing in June, but not sure that is necessarily a point in his favor for fantasy. Catchers take a beating, which is why you should generally downgrade them. The bat is good enough to profile in a 1B/DH/backup catcher role, but it just makes playing time tougher to come by and the leash much shorter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.253/.339/.458/2
409) Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 23.4 – Locklear carried over his great pro debut in 2022 into 2023 with him smashing High-A, slashing .305/.422/.549 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.8%/13.1% K%/BB% in 61 games. He then missed about 2 months after breaking his hand, but he picked right up after returning, getting the call to Double-A and slashing .250/.361/.460 with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 22.7/10.1% in 27 games. He’s a strong dude who hits the ball very hard, so the power isn’t in question, and he’s shown a relatively good feel to hit at every level. He’s not fast, but he was a perfect 12 for 12 on the bases in 85 games, so there is obviously a level of athleticism here too. He’s a 1B only at this point, so he’ll have to mash to hold down a full time job, but the potential is certainly there to mash. 2024 Projection: 18/5/23/.240/.317/.431/1 Prime Projection: 77/27/86/.255/.332/.468/5
410) Ryan Clifford NYM, 1B/OF, 20.7 – Here is what I wrote about Clifford in January of 2023 in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “I’m planning on leaving every draft with Clifford, and he could be my #1 target in general. This guy checks almost every box you want to see for a monster power hitter (size, swing, lift, EV, organization, good pro debut, history of production). He also got drafted 343rd overall, meaning he should go super, super late in drafts. The one hiccup is the K rate was a bit on the high side, but the BB% was even higher to even it out, and he wasn’t expected to have major hit tool problems coming into the draft. He has legit star upside.” … you’re damn happy right now if you took my advice, as Clifford slashed .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers, 5 steals, and a 27.4%/12.5% K%/BB% in 115 games at mostly High-A. He scuffled after the trade to the Mets (so did Acuna), but I think you have to take into account an adjustment period when you join a new team, new city, new coaches etc … He’s right on track to become a high OBP, low BA slugger. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/30/86/.248/.332/.487/6
411) Bryce Eldridge SFG, OF, 19.5 – Selected 16th overall, Eldridge is a 6’7”, 220 pound unicorn type power hitter with monster raw power from the left side of the dish. He smashed pro pitchers in his pro debut with 5 homers and a 139 wRC+ in 16 games in rookie ball, and then he got the call up to Single-A and put up a 123 wRC+ in 15 games. There isn’t much speed and there is some swing and miss in his game with a 26.2% K%, but that’s balanced out by a 15.4% BB%, and he also had a .293 BA. He got drafted as a pitcher too, but it’s clear his future is as a power hitting beast. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/97/.251/.344/.512/5
412) Noble Meyer MIA, RHP, 19.3 – Selected 10th overall, Meyer has elite pitching prospect written all over him. He’s a loose and athletic 6’5”, 200 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball that he can get into the upper 90’s, an absolutely filthy slider that could be double plus, and a changeup that flashes plus. He also displays good control of all 3 pitches, although he struggled with his control in his pro debut with a 13.7% BB% in 11 IP. He had a 29.4% K% as well, and it was a small sample, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the control right now. He speaks like he’s a physics professor with a well beyond his years understanding of the art of pitching. At the draft, the ESPN guys literally called him a nerd right to his face (in an endearing way) in their pre draft interview with him. Right handed high school pitchers are treacherous waters to wade in, but sometimes you make exceptions, and Meyer is that exception. I wouldn’t fade him at all and have no issue going out and reaching for him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.16/205 in 180 IP
413) Robert Stephenson LAA, Closer Committee, 31.1 – The Angels signed Stephenson to a 3 year, $33 million contract, and it’s only a matter of time before he is their full time closer. Maybe he wins the job right out of camp, maybe he wins at some point during the year, and at worst, he will have it by 2025 with Estevez’ contract running out. He’s better than Estevez with a 3.10 ERA and 38.3%/8.0% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP. The fastball sits 96.8 MPH, and he has 3 bat missing secondaries in his cutter (59.9% whiff%), slider (41.8% whiff%), and splitter (42.2% whiff%). This was the best year of his career by far, but the truly elite cutter that he threw 41.4% of the time was a new pitch, so there is reason to believe he’s legit. Tampa was the one to unlock that pitch when he got traded there mid-season. What a difference a good organization can make. 2024 Projection: 3/3.26/1.09/68/12 saves in 52 IP Update: Will start the year on the IL with elbow discomfort, but it isn’t considered serious, and he’s still likely the closer here by 2025 at the latest
414) Bryan Abreu HOU, Setup, 26.11 – The Hader signing blocks Abreu’s path to the closer job in both the short term and the long term, but he’s so insanely elite you want him on your team in any format regardless. He put up a 1.75 ERA with a 34.8%/10.8% K%/BB% in 72 IP. The 39.8% whiff% is elite, the fastball is elite with a 37.3% whiff%, and the slider is at least plus with a 41.3% whiff%. He’s the best setup man in the game. 2024 Projection: 5/2.60/1.02/91/2 saves in 66 IP
415) Hunter Harvey WAS, Closer Committee, 29.4 – Harvey would have a legitimate case to be in the 2nd tier of closers if he had the job, but as I mentioned in the Finnegan blurb, he doesn’t have the job. He put up a 2.82 ERA with a 28.5%/5.5% K%/BB% and 10 saves in 60.2 IP. The stuff is huge with a 98.3 MPH fastball and 3 secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. He put up similar dominant numbers in 2022 as well. If there is more clarity on the job as we get deeper into the off-season, I would be more willing to go after either of these guys, but until that happens, I’m treading carefully. 2024 Projection: 4/3.19/1.09/71/18 saves in 62 IP
416) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 25.7 – Allen had a rock solid MLB debut with a 3.81 ERA and 22.2%/8.9% K%/BB% in 125.1 IP. He doesn’t have big stuff with a 91.4 MPH fastball, but his sweeper and changeup were both above average with a .266 and .252 xwOBA. The big strikeout rates from the minors unsurprisingly didn’t fully translate to the majors, but a 22.2% K% is almost dead average, and this was only his rookie year. Improvements to his control and/or added velocity and/or continued refinement of the secondaries are all paths for him to take the next step. As is, he’s a nice #4 starter. 2024 Projection: 9/3.88/1.30/150 in 150 IP
418) Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.10 – Scott had a truly elite 32.8%/3.4% K%/BB% in 62 IP at Double-A. He had a 107/12 K/BB in 87 IP on the season. Let’s not overthink things too much. Those are eye opening K/BB numbers and they led to a 2.57 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. And it’s not like he did it with smoke and mirrors. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a relatively easy, smooth, and athletic delivery . He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball that he can even got into the upper 90’s, and his slider is a plus, bat missing weapon. He rounds out the arsenal with a curve and change. To sum it all up, this a big man with elite control, a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a put away slider, a diverse pitch mix, and upper minors dominance. The more I think about and watch Scott, the more I love him. He’s getting considerably underrated. 2024 Projection: 3/4.22/1.28/44 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.72/1.18/169 in 160 IP
419) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 25.1 – Meyer missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery on August 9th, 2022, so he should be fully ready to go for 2024. He lands in a kinda middle area for me when it comes to going after the Tommy John discount on players. He’s not established on the MLB level, and he’s not quite an elite pitching prospect in my book, but he’s a very, very good one and he’s established himself in the upper minors with a 2.77 ERA and 199/61 K/BB in 172 IP. The stuff is big with a double plus slider that he proved will succeed against MLB hitters with a 42.1% whiff% and .255 xwOBA in his 6 IP MLB debut in 2022. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially above average changeup, and about average control. At full health, I pegged him as a high K mid-rotation starter, but I think the Tommy John surgery adds some extra bullpen risk on top if his arm keeps running into trouble. I’m not specifically targeting him, but I’m not avoiding him either. 2024 Projection: 7/4.23/1.32/115 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/160 in 150 IP
420) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8
421) Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 7th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder is a relatively safe, quick moving college arm. None of his stuff is jaw dropping, but he has plus control of 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93-94 MPH fastball, slider and changeup. It led to a pitching line of 1.87/0.95/143/24 in 120.1 IP in the ACC. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with an athletic delivery, he works fast, and he throws strikes with good stuff. Take a star away for landing in Cincy’s hitter’s haven, but I wouldn’t let the landing spot completely spoil you on him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/185 in 180 IP
422) Brayan Rocchio CLE, SS, 23.3 – Rocchio was a sell for me last off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “He’s not a target of mine, and because he has strong name value, if I owned him I would be willing to put him on the block for win now production.” I think that played out being the right move as he had a pretty lackluster year all around. He put up a 101 wRC+ in Triple-A with only 7 homers in 116 games. He doesn’t hit the ball hard with a 85.8 MPH EV and he doesn’t lift the ball. He had 25 steals, but he’s not fast with a 27.4 ft/sec sprint, and he didn’t steal any bags in 86 MLB PA. He had 12.3%/11.2% K%/BB%, but it fell apart completely in the majors with a 31.4%/4.7% K%/BB%. To top it all off, he wasn’t a good defensive player either with a negative 2.7 value. The one thing he does have is opportunity as it seems like the SS job is his for the taking at the moment, but even if everything works out, the upside isn’t very high. 2024 Projection: 66/9/47/.257/.309/.378/11 Prime Projection: 78/14/63/.276/.332/.409/18
423) Graham Pauley SDP, 2B/3B, 23.6 – I’m not seeing big fantasy upside from Pauley without a big power/speed and with a good, but not great hit tool. He’s also not a particularly great defensive player, so it’s not like his glove will force him onto the field. Having said that, the guy can clearly hit, slashing .308/.393/.539 with 23 homers, 22 steals, and a 16.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 127 games split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The fact that he didn’t miss a beat when he got to Double-A is the most impressive part of his season with a 141 wRC+ and 13.6% K% in 20 games. He’s not my favorite type of prospect to go after, but the guy can play, and he might break camp with the team while Machado’s elbow continues to heal. 2024 Projection: 66/14/59/.252/.311/.406/12 Prime Projection: 76/19/73/.269/.328/.436/15
424) Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 22.7 – The elite prospect potential that Luciano hinted at earlier in his career has all but completely faded after his lackluster 2023 season, and it’s the hit tool that got him in the end. He put up a 29.8% K% and .228 in 56 games at Double-A, a 35.9% K% and .209 BA in 18 games at Triple-A, and a 37.8% K% and .231 BA in 14 games in the majors. The huge power is still there with 15 homers in 74 games in the minors, and a 93 MPH EV in the majors, so it’s not like he’s close to being a bust at this point. It just shaves a ton of upside off the top, and he now profiles as a low BA slugger. 2024 Projection: 66/23/74/.227/.309/.423/4 Prime Projection: 77/28/91/.246/.330/.468/4
425) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 22.4 – Soderstrom got called up to the majors in July and he was just so clearly not ready with a horrible 35 wRC+ and 31.2% K% in 138 PA. It was relatively predictable as the plate approach was rough at Triple-A too with a 26.3%/7.5% K%/BB% that resulted in a 88 wRC+ in 77 games. Oakland has been very aggressive with him, and the plate approach just hasn’t caught up, but I would expect it to improve over time. The power is so easy to dream on with 21 homers and a 91.6 MPH EV at Triple-A, and the 89.3 MPH EV in the majors wasn’t too bad considered how hard he struggled. He’s a below average defensive catcher and Shea Langeliers looks pretty likely to hold the majority of the catcher job in the near future, so it’s not a guarantee he retains catcher eligibility long term. You are buying a potentially special lefty power bat, but there is refinement needed in multiple areas of his game (launch, plate approach, defense). 2024 Projection: 41/14/48/.238/.300/.417/1 Prime Projection: 76/26/82/.263/.325/.471/2 (without catcher eligibility)
426) Danny Jansen TOR, C, 29.0 – Jansen is under contract for one more season, and it seems very likely he will land a full time catcher job when he hits free agency. For now, he’s stuck in a timeshare with Kirk, but as I wrote in Kirk’s blurb, there seems to be enough playing time to keep them in the fantasy starting mix for 2024 as well. Jansen has above average power with a 19.7 degree launch and 93.1 MPH FB/LD EV, he has above average contact rates with a 20.6% K%, and he’s an above average defensive catcher. He used his extreme launch to jack 17 homers in 86 games, and he jacked 15 homers in 72 game sin 2022. On the flip side, that extreme launch makes him a low BABIP player with a .228 BA, but his strong contact rates should prevent the BA from dipping too low. 2024 Projection: 34/15/45/.238/.319/.452/0 Update: fractured his wrist but is hoping to return relatively soon
427) Shea Langeliers OAK, C, 25.4 – Langeliers power leveled up to the double plus range in 2023 with a 90.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV and 19.6 degree launch, leading to 22 homers in 135 games. 16 of those homers came on the road as he struggled hard in Oakland’s pitcher park with a .605 OPS and 6 homers in 65 games. The move to Vegas can’t come soon enough for Shea. The plate approach is quite bad with a 29.2%/6.9% K%/BB, .205 BA, and .268 OBP, so I wouldn’t really consider him in the tier of young catchers above this until he improves on that area. Soderstrom is also lurking, but there is plenty of room on that roster for both of them, and Langeliers is the superior defensive catcher. 2024 Projection: 55/24/68/.226/.295/.431/5
428) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 33.10 – The injury bug hit Rendon again in 2023 with only 43 games played. He played in only 47 games in 2022 due to a wrist injury and 58 games in 2021 due to a hip injury. This year it was groin injury, wrist injury, and ultimately a fractured tibia which ended his season in July. I said it in last year’s Top 1,000, but collecting a ton of injuries is not the way to stay productive deep into your 30’s, and Rendon wasn’t productive in the games he did play with a 95 wRC+. On the flip side, the underlying numbers were very encouraging with a great .357 xwOBA, 14.8%/13.7% K%/BB%, 90.1 MPH EV, and 16.6 degree launch. Those kind of numbers are not ones you just ignore. His injuries this year were largely due to getting hit with the ball (the broken tibia was from fouling a ball off his leg), so if he can just have better injury luck in 2024, a major bounce back season is certainly in the cards. His price is super dirt cheap this off-season (475 NFBC ADP), making him an almost no brainer late round pick for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 71/19/73/.260/.343/.431/3
429) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 28.10 – Moncada battled knee and back issues all season, but he sure looked healthy in his final 41 games, slashing .315/.354/.557 with 8 homers and a 52/9 K/BB. Looking at those K/BB numbers though, and his 30.0%/5.6% K%/BB% in 92 games overall, it was probably more of a hot streak than a true leveling up. The days of hoping for a true Moncada breakout are over, and it seems like he could already be physically declining with a career low by far 26.4 ft/sec sprint. That drop obviously had to do with the injuries, but racking up injuries is what generally starts a physical decline. He’s never been able to improve his contact rates, and his walk rates are now in steep decline too for 2 straight years. He still hits the ball hard with a 10.1% Barrel%, but it’s a swing geared for liners and he’s never unlocked his full power potential with mediocre homer totals basically his entire career. 2024 Projection: 68/18/75/.255/.323/.420/4
430) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3
431) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 26.5 – Rogers went down with a biceps injury just 4 starts into the season, and just when he was ramping back up to rejoin the MLB rotation a couple months later, he got shutdown with a shoulder injury to his non throwing shoulder. Before going down with the injury, he was showing signs of bouncing back somewhat from a horrible 2022 with his famed changeup putting up a 37.8% whiff% in 18 IP. It didn’t look like he was going to get back on the ace trajectory from 2021, but a high K mid rotation starter looked to be the level he was evening off at. The biceps injury adds risk, and the injury to his non throwing shoulder isn’t great either, but it’s nothing like if it happened to his left arm. He looks locked into a rotation spot at the moment, and I like taking a flier on him at his currently very cheap price. 2024 Projection: 7/3.95/1.28/130 in 130 IP
432) Kahlil Watson CLE, 2B/SS, 20.11 – Watson hasn’t lived up to the hype from his draft year, both on and off the field, but he’s getting a fresh start with Cleveland, and he’s still an electric player with a boatload of talent. The numbers ain’t bad either with 14 homers, 25 steals, and a 104 wRC+ in 83 games at High-A. The hit tool is rough with a 26.8% K% and .217 BA, but it’s not like those contact rates are too bad at all, and bad luck had a lot to do with that BA with a low BABIP. He hit the ball hard, he has plus speed, and he has a beautifully vicious lefty swing. There is still time for him to fulfill his promise. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/22/73/.246/.323/.442/24
433) Brice Matthews HOU, SS, 22.0 – Selected 28th overall, Matthews is a major first year player draft target considering his upside vs. his hype. And if Houston trusts his hit tool enough to take him in the first round, that is good enough for me to go all in on him. He’s a top notch athlete with plus power and plus speed that led to 20 homers and 20 steals in 54 games in the Big 10. He’s a rock solid 6’0” with a swing that reminds me a bit of Tommy Pham’s. In fact, his entire game reminds me of Tommy Pham as a guy who hits the ball very hard with speed and some swing and miss. He lived up to his scouting report in his pro debut with 4 homers, 16 steals, a 120 wRC+ and a 26.7%/16% K%/BB% in 33 games at Single-A. The K rate was also coming down at the end of the year with a 15.2% K% in his final 11 games. Like Pham, maybe it takes him a couple extra years to figure it out, but the breakout will be loud when he does. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/21/74/.242/.320/.442/23
434) Yusei Kikuchi TOR, LHP, 32.9 – Kikuchi leveled up by massively improving his control with a 6.9% BB% (12.8% in 2022). It allowed his 95.1 MPH fastball to play as an above average pitch and it led to a 3.87 ERA with a 25.9% K% in 167.2 IP. He still got hit very hard with a 9% Barrel% and none of his secondaries (slider, curve, changeup) are better than average, so I’m still not buying in too hard, but this is the first year I’m not completely avoiding him. 2024 Projection: 10/4.09/1.28/170 in 160 IP
435) Marcus Stroman NYY, RHP, 32.11 – Stroman had a 2.88 ERA in 118.2 IP through July 15th, but then he starting dealing with a hip and rib injury that tanked his season. He put up a 11.00 ERA in 18 IP the rest of the way while missing a month and a half of the season. His velocity was way down when he returned in mid September. He’s a low velocity (around 92 MPH), groundball pitcher (3 degree launch) who doesn’t put up big K numbers (20.7% K%), so even in good years he’s not a fantasy beast. Now that he is approaching his mid 30’s, I’m not sure it’s a profile I want to keep betting on. 2024 Projection: 10/3.80/1.24/142 in 160 IP
436) Ranger Suarez PHI, LHP, 28.8 – An elbow injury delayed Suarez’ season debut until May, and he had his usual unheralded but solid year, especially if you include the postseason. He put up a 3.90 ERA with a 22.6%/8.2% K%/BB% in 143.2 IP. The strikeout rates are about average, the walk rates are about average, and the stuff is about average. He’s an average starter. 2024 Projection: 10/3.77/1.30/141 in 150 IP
437) Andrew Heaney TEX, LHP, 32.10 – It’s so stupid that Heaney walked into the Dodgers magic pitching machine, unlocked his full potential with a 3.10 ERA and 35.5%/6.1% K%/BB% in 72.2 IP, and then went right back to being his usual mercurial self the second he stepped out of it. With Texas, he put up a 4.15 ERA with a 23.5%/9.4% K%/BB% in 147.1 IP. Like I mentioned, what he did with Texas is who he’s been throughout his entire career other than that one season, so this is obviously who he is. 2024 Projection: 9/4.20/1.31/158 in 150 IP
438) Sean Manaea NYM, LHP, 32.2 – Manaea couldn’t opt out of the final year of his contract fast enough as San Francisco jerked him around from starter, to bulk reliever, to opener, to short inning reliever like I’ve never seen before. That seriously couldn’t have been easy for him. He was finally allowed to settle into a normal starting job in his last 4 outings of the season, and he thrived with a 2.25 ERA and 18/2 K/BB in 24 IP. He had a 4.44 ERA with a 25.7%/8.4% K%/BB% in 117.2 IP on the season. He maintained his Driveline induced, career best velocity bump all year (93.6 MPH fastball), and he introduced a sweeper into his arsenal which was his best secondary with a 35.1% whiff% and .221 xwOBA. Signing with the Mets gives him a no doubt, regular starting job. 2024 Projection: 9/4.12/1.26/157 in 155 IP
439) Frankie Montas CIN, RHP, 31.0 – Montas underwent shoulder surgery in February and made it back for a single appearance on September 30th where he went 1.1 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/1 K/BB. The velocity was down 1.4 MPH to 94.8 MPH, but he obviously wasn’t trying to go full speed at the very end of the season just so he could get hurt again, so I wouldn’t read anything into that velocity reading. He also has velocity to spare with a 96+ MPH fastball when healthy. Cincinnati just signed him to a 1 year, $14 million contract, so they obviously believe the arm is feeling good enough to pony up that much dough. When healthy, he combines the big gas with a double plus splitter and near elite whiff rates overall. The upside is high, but with the injury risk and the horrible pitcher’s park, it’s hard to really go after him. 2024 Projection: 8/4.10/1.31/142 in 140 IP
440) Luis Lara MIL, OF, 19.4 – The big question is if the 5’7” Lara can ever develop legitimate power. Just based on his size, the answer might be that he can’t, but he has the type of electric swing from both sides of the plate that says you shouldn’t rule it out. And even if he can’t develop a ton of power, he can still be an impact fantasy player with a plus hit, plus speed profile. He slashed .285/.379/.354 with 2 homers, 22 steals, and a 14.5%/12.3% K%/BB% in 70 games as an 18 year old at Single-A, and then he closed out the year at High-A where he put up a 107 wRC+ in 17 games. This is the type of precocious hitter that I want to bet on. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 90/15/65/.285/.360/.410/30
441) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 23.0 – Pereira’s 43.1% whiff%, 38.8% K%, and 23 wRC+ in his 103 PA MLB debut is exactly what we didn’t want to see happen. That is the kind of disaster MLB debut that has to make you think twice about betting on a player, but I would be careful about giving up on Pereira too fast. He truly crushes the ball, he has well above average speed, and he decimated the upper minors with a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and 132 wRC+ at Triple-A. You only have to look at his teammate, Aaron Judge, to find hope, as Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his 95 PA MLB debut in 2016. When a guy hits the ball this hard, you don’t need to be Luis Arraez to do damage. The extreme swing and miss does have me less excited for him than I was before his debut, but I’m still betting on his talent long term. 2024 Projection: 24/9/29/.222/.291/.434/5 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.244/.320/.482/12
442) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 21.11 – Clase put up an extremely fun power/speed season with 20 homers and 79 steals in 129 games split between High-A and Double-A, but there are reasons for some restraint when ranking him. He has below average raw power at only 5’9”, the strikeout rates are very high with a 27.7% K%, and the production dropped off at Double-A with a .222 BA and 94 wRC+. If he gets to the majors and the EV’s are low while the K rate is high, plus the fact he will be in a pitcher’s park, he might struggle to be even an average MLB hitter. The good news is that he only needs to get to about average to let his elite speed rack up fantasy value. It’s a risky profile, but it’s a high upside one too. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/61/.236/.322/.414/41
443) Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 21.4 – Solometo continued to live up to my high ranking of him since before he was drafted. He crushed High-A with a 2.30 ERA and 29.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP, and then he more than held his own at Double-A as a 20 year old with a 4.35 ERA and 23%/6.5% K%/BB% in 51.2 IP. His velocity ticked up into the low to mid 90’s range on the fastball, the low 90’s sinker/2-seamer is filthy, and both his changeup and slider have above average potential at least. He does all this from a nightmare (for hitters) funky lefty delivery at 6’5”, 220. He’s one of my favorite pitching prospects in the minors. 2024 Projection: 2/4.13/1.32/27 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.72/1.24/185 in 170 IP
444) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 21.0 – If Petty was throwing as hard he was throwing in his draft year (mid to upper 90’s), he would be an elite pitching prospect right now, but he’s settled in as a low to mid 90’s guy. Even with the modest velocity, he does everything else so well, this version of him might actually be better than the version we thought we were getting. He’s now a pitcher’s pitcher with elite control (5.5% BB%) and a very diverse pitch mix. He throws so many different pitches that all look pretty similar out of his hand and are all at around similar velocities, but they break a different way as they get closer to the plate. He throws a hard gyro slider, a hard split change, a 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, and a slightly slower breaking ball. He’s a nightmare to face. You can almost say he’s a junk baller type, but he throws his secondaries so hard it wouldn’t exactly be accurate. He dominated with a 1.72 ERA and 24.1%/5.5% K%/BB% in 68 IP at mostly High-A. He closed out year at Double-A and was equally as dominant. The floor might be higher than the ceiling at the moment, but if he all of a sudden finds that old velocity of his, watch out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.74/1.19/166 in 170 IP Update: Petty found the lost velocity from his draft year this spring, but he still has to prove he can maintain over a full starter’s workload, and he needs to prove he can maintain the plus control from 2023 with the newfound stuff
445) Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 27.10 – Whitlock looks locked into a rotation spot with the Giolito injury, and as frustrating as it’s been waiting for him the breakout in a starting role, he still has the enticing profile to keep him interesting for fantasy. The control is elite with a 4.3% BB%, and the whiff% is well above average with a 28.1% whiff%. I love a plus control/whiff combo, and the stuff is good too. The sinker sat 94 MPH, the slider was at least plus with a 47.2% whiff%, and the changeup is above average with a .294 xwOBA. He battled an elbow injury in 2023, limiting him to 71.2 IP, and he never pitches quite as well in a starting role as he does in a relief role. The 5.15 ERA also isn’t very impressive, but the 3.75 xFIP looks better. I really like him as a reasonably priced pitcher with some upside. 2024 Projection: 8/3.89/1.29/130 in 130 IP
446) Seth Lugo KCR, RHP, 34.5 – Lugo was finally unleashed in the rotation, and the fact he was a very good starting pitcher was a surprise to nobody except maybe the Mets. He put up a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 146.1 IP. He throws an average to above average 6 pitch mix which plays up because of his good control. Nothing is really standout in his profile, but he doesn’t do anything poorly either. 2024 Projection: 9/3.80/1.22/147 in 150 IP
447) Jack Flaherty DET, RHP, 28.6 – Flaherty had a disaster season that wasn’t all that surprising if you were paying attention. He put up a 4.99 ERA with a 22.8%/10.2% K%/BB% in 144.1 IP. I wrote in his 2023 Top blurb, “Don’t get pulled in on the name value … he’s been bad for years now with a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021, and 4.94 xERA in 2022.” … He doesn’t have the type of stuff (93.1 MPH fastball) or strikeout upside to survive with well below average control. He’s not a complete lost cause as his curve notched an excellent 40.2% whiff% and he still generally induced weak contact with a 87.9 MPH EV against. If his control can bounce back to prime levels, he definitely can put together a good season. 2024 Projection: 8/4.27/1.33/156 in 150 IP
448) Cristopher Sanchez PHI, LHP, 27.4 – Sanchez’ control took a monster step forward with a career best by a mile 4% BB%, and it led to a breakout season with a 3.44 ERA and 24.2% K% in 99.1 IP. He’s had well below average control his entire career and he had a 13.1% BB% just this year at Triple-A in 49.2 IP, so it seems hard to believe this is actually sustainable. What is sustainable is his ability to keep the ball on the ground (3.9 degree launch), to go along with a plus, bat missing changeup (43% whiff%). His stuff isn’t big enough (92.1 MPH fastball) to have below average control, so buying into Sanchez is taking a leap of faith that he can maintain at least a large portion of the control gains. I’m lukewarm on him. 2024 Projection: 8/4.18/1.32/128 in 140 IP
449) Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 27.9 – Houck looks locked into a rotation spot with the Giolito injury, and like Whitlock, there are enough ingredients here to stay semi excited for him despite a lackluster 2023. He put up a 5.01 ERA with a 21.4%/8.9% K%/BB% in 106 IP, but things look better under the hood with a 4.21 xERA and 28.7% whiff%. The heavily used slider is plus with a 38.7% whiff%, and the splitter is another bat missing weapon with a 40.4% whiff%. The 93.4 MPH sinker is solid with a negative 3 degree launch, and his new cutter performed admirably with a .309 xwOBA. Boston hired some new pitching minds, so maybe they can take these good ingredients and actually turn it into a successful meal. I think they can. 2024 Projection: 8/3.99/1.32/130 in 135 IP
450) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Chicago announced they have every intention to transition Crochet into a starting role, which was pretty clearly their intention from the time they drafted him. He returned from Tommy John surgery in May in a relief role, but he hit the IL again one month later with a shoulder problem. He was able to make it back for 3 outings in September, relieving some of the injury concern, but the bottom line is that he didn’t look good at all in 2023. He put up a 3.55 ERA (6.48 xERA) with a 18.8%/20.3% K%/BB% in 12.2 IP. It’s been a different story this spring though he gets further away from the injury. He looks healthy and has been having some very crisp outings, with the stuff fully back. He’s definitely worth taking a shot on at this point in the rankings. 2024 Projection: 7/3.98/1.32/135 in 130 IP
451) Chris Paddack MIN, RHP, 28.3 – Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2022 and was able to make it back for 2 appearances to close out the year in September. He looked more than 100% in those appearances, going 5 IP with 6 hits, 3 ER and a 8/1 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.5 MPH with a 37.5% whiff% and the famed changeup notched a 36.8% whiff%. He seems to have an inside track on a rotation spot at the moment. It doesn’t seem prudent to go too crazy for such a small sample, especially considering that would be a career high velocity on his 4-seamer and career high whiff percentages on both pitches. He also put up a 5.07 ERA and 4.73 ERA in his last two healthy seasons in 2021 and 2022. He’s a fun upside flier, but there is a ton of risk here in all directions. 2024 Projection: 7/4.11/1.23/116 in 120 IP
452) Casey Mize DET, RHP, 26.11 – The Ghosts of Elite Pitching Prospects Past are never far away, and Mize is reminder 1,001 on why you can never be too sure of any pitching prospect. He was as sure of a bet as there was after getting drafted 1st overall in 2018, and it’s basically been all down hill after that. The strikeout rates never transferred to pro ball at all, and his famed splitter has been mediocre at best. He then completed the pitching prospect bust trifecta by going down with Tommy John surgery in June of 2022 that kept him out for all of 2023. He’s expected to be healthy for 2024, but he had issues ramping up to try to make it back for 2023, so it’s far from a guarantee, and even if he is fully healthy, he’s just not the pitcher we thought we were getting in 2018. He’s in flier territory only. Don’t buy the name value. 2024 Projection: 6/4.37/1.33/115 in 130 IP Update: The stuff is up this spring, which is a much needed upside boost for Mize, but I still wouldn’t go too crazy for him
453) Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – Fedde went to Korea and absolutely dominated with a pitching line of 2.00/0.95/209/35 in 180.1 IP. He was named MVP. Whenever players leave for foreign leagues and dominant, it always adds some unknown intrigue that immediately makes them more interesting for fantasy. He didn’t add velocity, but he made tweaks to his slider and changeup. It’s always better to take a shot on unknown upside than known mediocrity when it comes to the last few rounds of the draft/$1-$3 players in auctions, so he’s worth the last spot on your roster even in a shallower league. He only signed for a 2 year, $15 million contract, so I would be careful about getting too carried away. 2024 Projection: 9/4.16/1.31/139 in 150 IP
454) Matt Manning DET, RHP, 26.2 – Manning is reminder 1,002 on why you can never trust elite pitching prospect. His hype never quite reached Mize levels, but it was getting up there, and he’s now trying to drag people back in, but I’m staying away. He put up a 3.58 ERA in 78 IP in 2023, but it came with a 15.8% K%, a .355 xwOBA against, and a 5.48 xERA. The stuff isn’t big with a 93.4 MPH fastball, and the secondaries are very weak with a below average slider leading the way with a measly 26.1% whiff%. Control is really the only thing going for him with a 6.6% BB%, and we’ve seen pinpoint control guys thrive with mediocre stuff, but I’m not quite ready to fully trust that he actually has pinpoint control. 2024 Projection: 5/4.29/1.29/85 in 100 IP Update: The stuff is up this spring, which is a much needed upside boost for Manning, but I still wouldn’t go too crazy for him, and Mize just knocked him out of the rotation
455) Drew Rasmussen TBR, RHP, 28.8 – Rasmussen underwent an internal brace procedure on his UCL in mid July which will likely keep him out until the end of the 2024 season at the least. It will be his 3rd major elbow surgery in his career, but the first two Tommy John surgeries came back to back in 2016 and 2017, so I don’t want to just write him off as a hopeless case to remain a starter. It’s a shame he can’t stay healthy, because he was leveling up to near ace levels in 2023 with a 2.62 ERA and 26.6%/6.2% K%/BB% in 44.2 IP. He had a 2.84 ERA in both 2021 and 2022 as well. He has the big stuff to back up the production with plus control of a 95.7 MPH 4-seamer to go along with a legitimate 5 pitch mix. It’s hard to buy him expecting a full starter’s workload for years to come, but injuries are a part of pitching, and being overly scared off seems foolish as well considering the extremely high level he was establishing. 2024 Projection: OUT
456) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B/3B, 23.10 – I guess the Devil only has room for one Yankees rookie on his ledger (see the Anthony Volpe blurb), because I see no promises made for Peraza in 2024. He swung and missed far too often for his type of profile with a 33.1% whiff% in 191 PA, which led to a .191 BA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to make up for the swing and miss with a below average 87.2 MPH EV in the majors and 85.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. He also has never really been a big OBP guy with mostly mediocre walks rates throughout his career. The plus speed and defense are what carries his profile, and while both are good enough to make Peraza an attractive low cost option, his former prospect hype could push his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 33/6/26/.238/.299/.388/13 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.254/.319/.415/23 Update:OUt 2 months with a shoulder strain
457) Orlando Arcia ATL, SS, 29.8 – Arcia is an above average defensive SS, but he hits at the bottom of the order and is an average hitter at best. He had 66 Runs and 65 RBI in a full time role, and this was the best year of his career. He has average power with an 88.2 MPH EV and 6.9% Barrel%, but a 5.4 degree launch is going to cap his homer upside (17 homers), and his plate approach is average-ish with a 19.1%/7.3% K%/BB%. He’s also a well below average runner with only 1 steal and a 25.9 ft/sec sprint. In shallower leagues, he is optimally a bench bat, and in medium and deeper leagues, he should be around one of your worst starters. 2024 Projection: 73/17/66/.259/.320/.415/1
458) Brendan Rodgers COL, 2B, 27.8 – Don’t get sucked into Rodgers. I get it, he still has some prospect shine on him and he plays in Coors, but there is nothing here to buy into for fantasy. He’s a worm killer with a 53.3% GB%, his sprint speed can be timed with a sundial (as my former baseball coach used to yell at me) with a bottom 26% of the league mark, he doesn’t get on base with a 5.7% BB%, and his hit tool isn’t particularly good with a career .265 BA. You’re going to get to the end of your draft, see his name, and say, “why not,” but what you should be saying is, “why?” 2024 Projection: 75/17/73/.265/.322/.420/0
459) Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 26.0 – Massey once again seriously underperformed his underlying numbers with a .283 wOBA vs. .319 xwOBA in 2023 (.302 wOBA vs. .332 xwOBA in 2022). Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a pattern, so there won’t be any more grace if it happens again in 2024. The underlying numbers are good because he gets the bat on the ball (21.5% K%), he lifts it (19.7 degree launch), and he has an above average 7.8% Barrel% and 88.6 MPH EV. He closed the season out with 5 homers, a .274 BA and .855 OPS in his final 78 PA, so the optimistic view is that he was figuring it out, but it’s just as likely the regular variance that happens throughout the season. I liked him as a target last off-season, and while he’s no longer a target for me, I wouldn’t mind grabbing him super late if he falls into my lap. 2024 Projection: 63/19/71/.246/.310/.421/7
460) Luis Garcia WAS, 2B, 23.11 – Remember what I said in the Rosario blurb about some players just being who they are? Well, Garcia is headed down that path, except he’ll still be just 23 years old at the start of the season, and there was some hope in the underlying numbers that he can take a step forward. His 88.3 MPH EV was a career best and so was his 12.4% K%. It didn’t result in a good season with a 84 wRC+ and below average .308 xwOBA, but at least it’s something. He doesn’t have much speed (27.2 ft/sec sprint with 9 steals) and he has a low launch (4.6 degree launch), so even if he levels up, it still probably won’t make for a truly great fantasy season. 2024 Projection: 67/13/63/.269/.310/.417/10
461) Jeff McNeil NYM, 2B/OF, 32.0 – McNeil is at the mercy of the BABIP gods for fantasy value. His BABIP dipped a little in 2 of the last 3 years, and he doesn’t have the power (1.3% Barrel%) or speed (27.4 ft/sec sprint) to overcome it. He hit .270 with 10 homers, a 10%/6% K%/BB%, and .288 BABIP in 2023. He took advantage of the new steal rules with a career high 10 steals, but that isn’t enough to really move the needle. He’s an aging, one category fantasy player (BA). 2024 Projection: 78/12/58/.290/.348/.426/9
462) Austin Hays BAL, OF, 28.9 – Hays is as boring as it gets. He hit .275 with 16 homers and 5 steals in 144 games. He hit .250 with 16 homers in 145 games in 2022. The underlying numbers back up the boring stats with xwOBA’s in the slightly below average range for his career. He’s under team control through 2025, and with Baltimore’s talented minor league system ready to boil over, he’s at risk of losing his full time job. He can also be traded, but Baltimore might prefer to keep the depth, so that isn’t a guarantee. He’s getting pretty close to a worst case scenario fantasy option. 2024 Projection: 71/17/66/.262/.318/.435/4
463) Amed Rosario TBR, SS/2B, 28.4 – Rosario is a case of a super talented player who just never improved. We hope that young players can make the proper adjustments, mature at the plate, add power, etc …, but sometimes they just are who they are. Rosario came into the league with a good feel for contact, plus speed, average raw pop and a poor plate plate approach, and that is still who he is today. He’s a below average SS and an average at best hitter, but he played well at 2B in 2023, so there is a chance a team takes a shot on him for their 2B job. He’s been a 2 WAR or over player for 3 of the last 5 years. His landing spot will dictate his value. 2024 Projection: 63/11/54/.270/.315/.413/17 Update: Rosario signed with Tampa, which isn’t great from a playing time perspective, and but is great for a developmental perspective. If Tampa can’t get the most of his raw power, it’s never going to happen, but it’s likely coming in a part time role
464) Joey Meneses WAS, 1B/DH, 31.11 – Meneses played only 19 games at 1B, but the only other position he played is DH, so I’m going to include him in these rankings even though 20 games is generally my cutoff. I wasn’t buying into Meneses last off-season and ignored the insane projection Steamer put on him. Halp beat Steamer on this one with him putting up very mediocre numbers with only 13 homers and a 96 wRC+ in 154 games. The hit tool was solid with a .275 BA, 19.8% K%, and 89.4 MPH EV, but he has no speed (0 steals), and a 9.4 degree launch is going to keep the power numbers modest. 2024 Projection: 68/18/82/.264/.317/.423/1
465) Luis Garcia HOU, RHP, 27.5 – Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, which makes a 2nd half return a best case scenario, and a late season return the more likely outcome. You can’t count on him at all for 2024. He pitched only 27 innings before going down with the injury and he more or less looked like himself with a 4.00 ERA and 27%/8.7% K%/BB%. He always got underrated for fantasy, so he’s likely to be almost completely forgotten about now that he went under the knife. I don’t particularly love him as a target, but if you can get him for almost nothing, why not stash him on your IL. 2024 Projection: 2/3.97/1.31/29 in 30 IP
466) Lance McCullers Jr. HOU, RHP, 30.6 – McCullers missed all of 2023 with an elbow injury that eventually required surgery in mid June. He’s not expected to be ready to return until July, and that is probably the best case scenario. You really can’t count on him at all for 2024. He’s a high strikeout mid rotation starter when healthy, but we’ll see how healthy he is when he returns mid-late season. No issue with him as a cheap IL stash, but I wouldn’t give up a lot of value for him at this point as he enters his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.28/32 in 30 IP
467) Tyler Mahle TEX, RHP, 29.6 – Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in late May 2023 which puts the 2nd half as his best case return date, and a late season return as the safer bet. He was pitching well before going down with the injury with a 3.16 ERA and 27.5%/4.9% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP. When healthy, he’s a high strikeout mid rotation starter, but like with McCullers and Garcia, we’ll see how healthy he is when he returns. I generally like to go after the Tommy John discount on top of the rotation starters, but Garcia, McCullers, and Mahle all have the K upside, and almost, but not quite top of the rotation upside to make them just enticing enough as a cheap stash. Don’t pay up big (or even medium) for them though. 2024 Projection: 2/4.21/1.27/30 in 30 IP
468) Ryan Noda OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Oakland is still a talent wasteland, but they have enough talent on the way where a 1B/DH logjam could be brewing with Noda, Rooker, Soderstrom, and Jordan Diaz (and Lawrence Butler and Denzel Clarke ready to make the OF crowded too). Noda has the talent to keep a full time job, but he’s definitely going to have to earn it. He has plus power with a 13% Barrel%, 91.2/94.9 MPH AVG/FB EV and 16 degree launch. It resulted in only 16 homers in 128 games, but there is obviously more in the tank. He also gets on base with a 15.6% BB% (.364 OBP) and can hit hit lefties with a .753 OPS. The thing that can tank him is the hit tool, as a 34.3% K% and 36.9% whiff% is in the major danger zone. He had a .229 BA with a .213 xBA. You can’t count on him for BA, Runs, RBI, Steals or even guaranteed playing time. But other than that, he’s great ;). 2024 Projection: 74/23/71/.225/.337/.431/5
469) Nick Senzel WAS, 3B/OF, 28.9 – Opportunity is King for fringy players, and it was announced that Senzel will be Washington’s starting 3B in 2024. He’s obviously going to have to perform to keep the job, but at least he’ll get a real shot to prove he’s a legit MLB player, because he’s yet to prove that in his 5 year career, let alone that he is a legit MLB starter. He has a career negative 0.8 WAR and has been both a very bad hitter (career 77 wRC+ in 1366 PA) and very bad defensive player (career negative 12.8 Fangraphs defensive value). The only year he’s been above replacement level is his rookie year in 2019. If he wasn’t the 2nd overall pick in the 2016 Draft, I highly doubt Washington would have already handed him the 3B job, or even a guaranteed spot on their roster. Pedigree is a hellava drug. It’s not like a breakout is impossible though with decent contact rates (22.4% K%), not horrible EV’s (87.4 MPH EV), a good launch (15.2 degrees), and above average speed (28.3 ft/sec sprint). I wouldn’t bet on a breakout, but at least Washington will give him a chance at one. 2024 Projection: 62/16/53/.247/.314/.402/13
470) Hunter Renfroe KCR, OF, 32.2 – Renfroe is an aging, below average defensive player who hits for a low average, doesn’t get on base and whose power showed signs on decline in 2023. He put up a career worst 26.8% ft/sec sprint with a 6 year low 88.3 MPH EV. His 20 homers were the lowest mark of his career in a full season. He can still pop close to 30 homers with nothing else if it all comes together, but even in KC, I would be a bit worried about his playing time and leash. 2024 Projection: 62/24/71/.244/.311/.447/1
471) Stone Garrett WAS, OF, 28.5 – Garrett had season ending surgery in August on his ankle and fibula, but he is expected to be good to go for 2024. It seems like he has a full time job at the moment, and he has the skills to keep that job with a 91.1 MPH EV, 9.6% Barrel%, 17.3 degree launch, and .345 xwOBA in 271 MLB PA in 2023. It was good for a 115 wRC+. The hit tool is bad with a 30.3% K%, but the 32.6% whiff% isn’t horrible, and he had a .269 BA (.263 xBA), so it’s not completely out of control. He’s also a good athlete with a 28.5 ft/sec sprint, although we will see how the injury impacts that. Garrett has the opportunity and talent to go after late in drafts. 2024 Projection: 68/24/75/.246/.327/.442/7
472) Sawyer Gipson-Long DET, RHP, 26.4 – Long was almost completely ignored as a prospect, but his MLB debut put us all on notice that he’s not to be taken lightly. He put up a 2.70 ERA with a 31.7%/9.8% K%/BB% in 20 IP, and while he’s obviously not going to maintain that over a full season, there is nothing that looks like a fluke. He leads with a plus slider that notched a 40.9% whiff% and a plus changeup that notched a 50% whiff% with a .134 xwOBA. He doesn’t throw gas with a 93.6 MPH 4-seamer and 92.4 MPH sinker, but both fastballs performed very well too. His entire arsenal plays perfectly off each other as it’s tough to pick up which of his pitches he’s going to until it’s too late for the batter. He controls the entire arsenal very well with plus walk rates throughout most of his minor league career. I’m inclined to think he’s the real deal, although he’s never had quite as much success in the minors as he did in his debut, so a little bit of caution is warranted. Detroit also added to their rotation this off-season, so he’s going to have to fight for a rotation spot. 2024 Projection: 6/3.95/1.29/103 in 100 IP
473) Nick Nastrini CHW, RHP, 24.1 – One of the biggest issues with Nastrini was that he was in a jam packed organization with the Dodgers, but that cleared right up with his trade to the pitching starved White Sox. He’s a big dude at 6’3”, 215 pounds with fire stuff (mid 90’s fastball) and a diverse pitch mix (slider, curve, change are all good pitches). It led to a 4.08 ERA with a 27.9%/10.8% K%/BB% in 114.2 IP at mostly Double-A. His control is below average, but this is a legitimately exciting prospect with high K upside and nothing but opportunity in Chicago. Nice little undervalued target this off-season. 2024 Projection: 6/4.28/1.35/132 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.80/1.28/172 in 155 IP
474) Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 24.7 – If you can buy low on Brown’s 5.33 ERA and 15.8% BB% in 72.2 IP at Triple-A I would be all over it. He had a 7.8% BB% in 20 IP at Double-A to start the year, and he had a 9.5% BB% at Double-A last year, so the Triple-A automated strike zone made his merely below average control look cartoonishly bad. He has legitimate top of the rotation stuff with 3 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curveball, slider) and all of them can look pretty damn similar until they get about halfway to the plate. He’s a nightmare to face at 6’6”, 210 pounds and it resulted in a 32.6% K% on the season in 92.2 IP. He missed all of August with a lat injury, and he pitched out of the bullpen when he returned in September, which does hint at some bullpen risk, but I’m looking at Chicago’s rotation, and they would be silly to not give this stud every chance to stick in the rotation. I really, really like Brown. 2024 Projection: 4/4.18/1.35/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/175 in 150 IP
475) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 22.8 – Abel remains more or less the same pitcher he was when he was drafted 15th overall in 2020, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He’s 6’5”, 190 pounds with explosive stuff and control issues. The fastball sits in the upper 90’s and has the potential to be a double plus pitch, and all 3 of his secondaries (slider, curve, change) have plus potential. But none of his pitches will reach their full potential if he doesn’t improve his scattershot control/command. He put up a 4.13 ERA with a 27.4%/13.5% K%/BB% in 113.1 IP at mostly Double-A. That walk rate is in the danger zone, and his filthy stuff should have produced a better ERA and K% against minor leaguers. It’s his 3rd full year of pro ball and there hasn’t been any improvement, but at the same time, he’s still just 22 years old, so writing off the possibility of future improvement would be too harsh. 2024 Projection: 3/4.37/1.37/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.79/1.29/176 in 165 IP
476) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 22.11 – Phillips’ control took a monster step forward at Double-A with a 9.5% BB% (14% BB% in 2022), but it proved to be a pre-tacked ball mirage. His walk rate exploded again at Triple-A and MLB with a 16.9% BB% and 13.5% BB%, respectively. When MLB tests out new rules/balls in the minors, they tend to make their way to the majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked if MLB incorporates a tackier ball at some point in the future. It will majorly help poor control guys like Phillips if they do, because his stuff is utter filth with a 96.4 MPH fastball and an elite slider that notched a 48.9% whiff% and .152 xwOBA in 20.2 MLB IP. With the pre-tacked balls at Double-A, he had a 3.34 ERA in 64.2 IP, but that jumped to 4.69 at Triple-A and 6.97 in the majors. The stuff is tantalizing and makes you want to bet on him, but the control is in the major bullpen danger zone with the normal baseballs. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.37/88 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.32/170 in 150 IP
477) Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 21.6 – Quero doesn’t have a path to playing time with William Contreras notching a 5.4 WAR season in 2023, and he also doesn’t have the highest upside profile with an above average hit/power combo. His numbers also don’t exactly jump off the page with a 107 wRC+ in 90 games at Double-A. It’s making it hard for me to really want to go all in on him, but when you take into account he was only 20 years old, you can’t deny he’s a damn good prospect. If there was a clear path to playing time, I can see being higher on him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/20/76/.268/.335/.442/4
478) Brooks Lee MIN, SS, 23.2 – There wasn’t much concern that a profile like Lee’s would transfer to the upper minors, but he went out and proved it anyway with a good feel to hit (16% K%) and some pop (16 homers) in 125 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His numbers dropped off at Triple-A with a 78 wRC+ in 38 games (120 wRC+ in 87 games at Double-A), but a lot of that had to do with a .258 BABIP, because the underlying numbers looked fine. He hit the ball generally hard all year (90.6 MPH EV at Triple-A), so while he’s more of a line drive hitter, I don’t think the power numbers will look too bad. It’s still a safety over upside profile, but an above average hit/power combo with a handful steals ain’t bad at all. 2024 Projection: 27/6/32/.254/.317/.401/2 Prime Projection: 84/19/73/.274/.338/.437/8
479) Nathan Martorella SDP, 1B, 23.1 – Italian Snack put on a clinic against High-A pitchers, putting up a 131 wRC+ with 16 homers and a 18%/15.1% K%/BB% in 112 games, and while he only had a 85 wRC+ in 23 games at Double-A, the 14.1%/9.1% K%/BB% and 3 homers look much better. He’s following in the footsteps of his fellow Italian brothers (Vinnie and Manzardo) as plus plate approach lefty sluggers, and there is nothing but opportunity in San Diego. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.269/.343/.455/3
480) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 26.7 – May underwent flexor tendon surgery and a revision to his 2021 Tommy John surgery in July 2023 which will probably effectively keep him out for all of 2024, although I’m sure he will try his darndest to make a 2nd half return. His ability to stay healthy and at the top of his game has to be in major question right now. He didn’t look all that great before going down with the injury with a 18.2%/8.6% K%/BB% in 48 IP, although the stuff was still big with a 97.3 MPH fastball, and he was still getting the job done with a 2.63 ERA. He’s too talented to write off, and he’s not the worst stash for a rebuilding team, but I’m struggling to get too excited for him right now. 2024 Projection: OUT
481) Tekoah Roby STL, RHP, 22.6 – Roby is getting a ton of helium this off-season, and while I most certainly like him, my money is still on Hence as the best pitching prospect in this system. Roby put up a 4.63 ERA with a 28.9%/6.3% K%/BB% in 58.1 IP at Double-A. He missed almost 3 months of the season with a shoulder injury, but he looked like fire when he returned, and he also impressed in the AFL despite a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP. The stuff backs up the production with a mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and a potentially above average slider and change. He strikes me as a strong mid rotation type rather than a top of the rotation starter, and I think his relatively high home run rates and ERA bears that out. 2024 Projection: 2/4.28/1.33/48 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.86/1.24/175 in 170 IP
482) Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 23.10 – Endy underwent elbow surgery to repair a torn UCL and will miss all of 2024. He had a rough season at both Triple-A and in his MLB debut. He had a 95 wRC+ with 6 homers and a 86.9 MPH EV in 67 games at Triple-A, and he had a 65 wRC+ with 3 homers and an 89.1 MPH EV in 57 games in the majors. On the plus side, his plate approach was elite at Triple-A with a 14.9%/11.9% K%/BB%, and it was solid in the majors too with an above average chase% (26.4%), above average whiff% (21.4%), and average BB% (8.3%). He’s a plus defensive catcher, he has above average speed with a 27.8 ft/sec sprint, and he has no groundball issues with a 16.5 degree launch. Nothing really jumps out at me to make me want to stick my neck out to buy him, but he definitely has an interesting collection of skills that could make him an impact fantasy catcher at his peak. I already thought it might take a few years for him to really hit his stride, and this elbow injury pushes that timeline back even further. 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 75/18/68/.268/.349/.436/9
483) Cade Cavalli WAS, RHP, 25.7 – Cavalli underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2023 and is hoping for a June 2024 return assuming there are no setbacks. I’m all for taking the Tommy John surgery discount on guys, but I like to take it on players who are already established or are at least nearly elite pitching prospects. Cavalli doesn’t really fall into either of those categories, and while the Tommy John success rate is high, it’s not like there aren’t legitimate risks. Brent Honeywell comes to mind as someone who was never the same, and Gunnar Hoglund seems headed down that path (although there is still hope for him). Regardless, the 6’4”, 240 pound Cavalli does have plenty to be excited about with big time stuff (95+ MPH fastball) and three quality secondaries in his curve, changeup and slider. The control is inconsistent and his minor league career was a bit up and down, so combined with the Tommy John risk, he’s not someone I’m really targeting. 2024 Projection: 3/4.38/1.37/66 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.30/175 in 170 IP
484) Carlos Estevez LAA, Closer Committee, 31.3 – Estevez has one half of the elite closer formula with a plus 97.1 MPH fastball that notched a 28.5% whiff%, but he lacks the half second half, which is a whiff machine secondary. The slider is mediocre with a 25.6% whiff% and .332 xwOBA. His control also isn’t good enough to dominate with just the fastball with a 11% BB%. It led to a 3.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 27.8% K% in 62.1 IP. With Robert Stephenson now in town, his hold on the closer job is extremely tenuous, and even if he manages to hold Stephenson off this year, it seems likely this will be his final season as a closer regardless with his contract running out. He’s one to avoid right now. 2024 Projection: 4/3.74/1.29/75/25 saves in 62 IP
485) Kyle Finnegan WAS, Closer Committee, 32.7 – I’m staying far away from this closer situation because the bottom line is that while Finnegan was the main closer for most of the year (28 saves), Hunter Harvey is just better than him. But we know the better pitcher doesn’t always get picked to close, which is why I’m staying away from both of them. Finnegan was serviceable but mediocre with a 3.76 ERA (4.83 xERA), 21.9%/8.3% K%/BB% and 92.2 MPH EV against. On the flip side, he throws hard with a 97.3 MPH fastball and has a 3.53 ERA in 226.1 IP in his career, so it isn’t so cut and dry that he will lose his closer job. 2024 Projection: 5/3.62/1.26/68/20 saves in 66 IP
486) Jose Leclerc TEX, Closer Committee, 30.4 – I liked Leclerc as a reasonably priced closer target last off-season, and that blew up very quickly as he saved only 4 games all season, so forgive me if I’m a little hesitant to go back to that well this year. Texas just signed David Robertson this off-season as well, so it’s basically 50/50 on who wins this job I would say. His velocity was down in the 1st half of the season and he was mighty shaky with a 16/12 K/BB in his first 16.1 IP, but his velocity started to rise back into the upper 90’s in the 2nd half, and his performance rose with it with a 2.43 ERA and 51/16 K/BB in his final 40.2 IP. He induced weak contact with a 85.9 MPH EV against, and all 4 of his main pitches got whiffs, led by the slider (49.6% whiff%). The control is shaky with a 12% BB%, but it was better in the 2nd half and plenty of top closers have similar walk rates. With Robertson in town, you really can’t 100% count on him for saves 2024 Projection: 4/3.27/1.12/75/15 saves in 60 IP
487) Geraldo Perdomo ARI, SS/2B, 24.5 – Perdomo is a good defender, he gets the bat on the ball (17.4% K%), he gets on base (12.9% BB% with a .353 OBP), and he’s a good baserunner (16 steals with a 27.2 ft/sec sprint in 495 PA), but he hits the ball so weakly (0.9% Barrel% and 85.7 MPH EV) that I think he is better suited as like a 400 PA super utility player. Jordan Lawlar is also coming for that starting SS job real quick. He’s still young and improving, and I do think it is a profile that can be a solid starter at peak, but his job is far from secure, and the upside isn’t very high to begin with. 2024 Projection: 60/9/40/.239/.332/.378/15
488) Jose Caballero TBR, 2B/SS, 27.7 – Caballero will compete for Tampa’s open SS job, but even if he wins it, I don’t see him locking in the role long term, and I don’t see him getting true full time playing time regardless. He gets the bat on the ball (23.6% K%), he gets on base (10% BB% with a .343 OBP), he has plus speed (29 ft/sec sprint with 26 steals in 280 MLB PA), and he’s a plus defensive player. That collection of skills can certainly get you on the field. The two biggest issues are that he hits the ball very weakly with a 83.3 MPH EV, and he struggled majorly vs. righties with a .588 OPS, so he might headed for a short side of a platoon role. 2024 Projection: 58/10/39/.234/.322/.370/26
489) Jesus Sanchez MIA, OF, 26.6 – Sanchez is a low launch hitter (5.6 degree launch), who doesn’t steal bases (3 steals), and is in a strong side of a platoon (.564 OPS vs. lefties). That just isn’t a recipe for success. He’s ranked even this high because he hits the ball very hard with a 12.2% Barrel% and 90.4 MPH EV, and he’s made some incremental gains to his plate approach with a solid 26.6%9.5% K%/BB%. 2024 Projection: 58/18/69/.256/.332/.448/3
490) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9
491) Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 25.7 – This is the type of terrible MLB debut where I’m not interested in taking the poor debut discount. Colas didn’t get the bat on the ball (27% K% and 31.8% whiff%), he didn’t get on base (4.6% BB%), he didn’t lift the ball (51.4% GB%), and he didn’t run fast (26.9 ft/sec sprint). It all led to a 53 wRC+ and .263 xwOBA in 75 games. The only saving grace is that the 88.9/94.2 MPH AVG/FB EV and 7.9% barrel% is above average, but he had a 87.3 MPH EV in 54 games at Triple-A, so it’s not like he’s some no doubt masher where you can ignore the other deficiencies in his game. He’s also already 25 years old. I’m sure he’ll be much better his 2nd time around, and he’s far from a hopeless case, but I’m not going after him. 2024 Projection: 56/15/52/.240/.300/.410/5
492) Abimelec Ortiz TEX, 1B, 22.1 – The 6’0”, 230 pound Ortiz was a man amongst boys in the lower minors, and he bodied lower minors pitching with 33 homers and a .990 OPS in 109 games at mostly High-A. I never flew him too far up my in-season rankings because he was a hair older than optimal for High-A, the body is definitely maxed out, and the strikeout rates were very high with a 27.8% K%, but what he did in the AFL gives me some hope the plate approach could be improved. He put up a 8/12 K/BB with a 1.060 OPS in 12 games. It’s a small sample, but it’s something to hang his hat on going into next year. How he fares against upper minors pitchers will really cement his status as either a platoon bench bat, or as a legit everyday starting first baseman. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/28/87/.244/.323/.478/2
493) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 23.11 – Canario returned from ankle and shoulder surgeries in mid June, and by the time he got back to Triple-A he looked mostly like himself, slashing .276/.342/.524 with 8 homers and a 28%/9.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. He swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach, so he’ll easily pop 30+ homers if the hit tool doesn’t completely tank him, and it took him only 17 PA to hit his first major league grand slam. The part that didn’t come back was his speed with only 2 steals and 25.8 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut, albeit in such a small sample I wouldn’t give it too much weight, and he was also just coming back from two major surgeries. He’ll have to earn his playing time every step of the way, and the hit tool is in the major danger zone, but his explosive power is worth taking a shot on. 2024 Projection: 22/8/29/.221/.292/.423/2 Prime Projection: 66/28/79/.237/.312/.466/7
494) George Valera CLE, OF, 23.5 – Valera underwent surgery on the hamate bone in his right hand last off-season, and not only did it delay the start of his season until May, it also took him awhile to truly heal from the injury. That injury is known to sap power and it did exactly that with only 3 homers and a .650 OPS in his first 49 games, but he looked like himself the rest of the way with 8 homers and a .897 OPS in his final 30 games. He’s a low BA, high OBP slugger on a team who needs some pop, and there is playing time to be won in that OF. I would buy his dip in value, and you could probably get him for almost nothing in most leagues right now. 2024 Projection: 42/13/46/.231/.318/.437/2 Prime Projection: 85/29/85/.248/.339/.484/5
495) Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 24.1 – Malloy was patiently waiting his turn all season at Triple-A, but his turn never came despite hitting well all year, slashing .277/.417/.474 with 23 homers, 5 steals, and a 24.9%/18.0% K%/BB% in 135 games at Triple-A. He has elite OBP’s, plus power, and a solid hit tool, but the thing that could be holding him back is that he isn’t a good defensive player. Detroit is a team on the rise, and there really isn’t a clear spot for him, which makes me worry he will be in a dog fight for playing time without much of a leash. Defense doesn’t matter for fantasy … until it does. 2024 Projection: 33/9/31/.243/.322/.427/2 Prime Projection: 78/24/76/.258/.341/.450/4
496) Ty Madden DET, RHP, 24.1 – Some players just never become darlings of the prospect world, both mainstream and underground dynasty, for whatever reason, despite having a ton to like about them, Madden has the size, stuff, strikeout upside, production, pedigree and proximity to be a hyped up pitching prospect, but he remains an afterthought on most rankings. He’s built like a horse at 6’3”, 215 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and 3 legit secondaries in his slider, curve and changeup. It resulted in a 3.43 ERA with a 29.7%/10.2% K%/BB% in 118 IP at Double-A. He’s a perfect low key target for any league size for both win now and win later teams. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.34/88 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.87/1.26/180 in 170 IP
497) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Out of sight, out of mind rules the prospect world, but Pages has the skills and opportunity to fight that instinct. He tore his labrum on a swing in mid May and missed the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was in the midst of having another excellent season (all he’s done in his career is have excellent seasons) with a 144 wRC+ in 33 games at Double-A. He has plus power with extremely low groundball rates (23.8%), and he combines that with a plus plate approach (22.5%/17.6% K%/BB%). He has some hit tool risk, especially with the extreme launch, but his strikeout rates have generally stayed out of the danger zone over his career. The Dodgers also don’t have much close to the majors OF depth with Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, and Manuel Margot currently penciled into their OF slots. Pages can definitively kick the door down in 2024 assuming he returns to full health. 2024 Projection: 18/6/22/.223/.307/.431/2 Prime Projection: 78/27/82/.241/.335/.462/8
498) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 20.4 – Here is what I wrote about Bellesteros, in part, on my 2023 Top 1,000, “Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due … The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023.” … I would call Ballesteros’ great 2023 season a breakout, but he already broke out in 2022, so all the hype on him this year is just other people starting to notice. He destroyed the age appropriate Single-A with a 142 wRC+ and then went to High-A and put up a 128 wRC+. He did it on the back of a plus plate approach (15.8%/12.8% K%/BB%) and above average power (14 homers). The profile might be a tad better for real life than fantasy, and he’s starting to get valued correctly, but I’m still on Ballesteros at his fair value. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/22/73/.271/.342/.440/2
499) Justin Crawford PHI, OF, 20.3 – Saying Crawford has an extreme groundball problem is understating it. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a legitimate prospect have such high groundball rates. He put up a 68.5% GB% in 69 games at Single-A and a 74.5% GB% in 18 games at High-A. He’s a skinny, slap hitting speedster right now with 47 steals, 3 homers and a .332 BA in 87 games, and while that profile can thrive against lower minors defenders, it’s not going to work nearly as well as the competition improves. The good thing is, his power will most definitely improve naturally as he gets stronger, and he has the type of profile that can still thrive with higher groundball rates. The odds of him really hitting his hopeful power ceiling from his draft year are pretty low at this point, but he’s still on pace to be a high BA, high steal player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/12/52/.274/.336/.401/44
500) Nelson Rada LAA, OF, 18.8 – Rada skipped right over complex ball to make his stateside debut at Single-A, and he wasn’t rattled with a 113 wRC+ and 18.1%/13.5% K%/BB% in 115 games. As a 17 year old, that is very impressive. He combines the mature plate approach with plus speed that he used to rack up 55 steals, but he doesn’t have much power (2 homers), and he doesn’t really project to have a ton of power down the line either. He had a 63.7% GB%, and he’s already relatively filled out at 5’10”. Obviously the power is only going to tick up from here, so how much he’s able to get to will determine his upside, but he set a very nice floor for himself. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/12/51/.273/.348/.398/27
501) Jaison Chourio CLE, OF, 18.10 – The power didn’t tick up this year with only 1 homer and a 54.1% GB% in 48 games (1 homer in 40 games in 2022), but everything that made us so excited about Chourio as a potential breakout last off-season is still present this off-season. He slashed .349/.476/.463 with 19 steals and a 19.6%/20.1% K%/BB% in 39 games in rookie ball. It was good for a 147 wRC+. We’ve seen his raw power on display in batting practices, he has a good frame at 6’1”, 162 pounds, and he’s a Chourio for crying out loud. I have little doubt that he will grow into more power and learn how to lift the ball more, and when he does, it will combine with his other skills to become a hyped through the roof prospect. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 87/17/69/.276/.352/.425/26
502) Cristhian Vaquero WAS, OF, 19.7 – If Vaquero was hitting for even modest power, his hype would be the through the roof, but he’s hit only 3 homers in 113 career games (2 homers in 58 games in 2023). Everything else is there with a 20.1%/15.8% K%/BB% and 22 steals split between rookie ball (118 wRC+ in 42 games) and Single-A (83 wRC+ in 16 games), so considering he certainly has the frame to add power in the future at a projectable and athletic 6’3”, 180 pounds, he makes for a very fairly priced dynasty target at the moment. And even if he never adds big power, his profile would still play for fantasy. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/18/71/.266/.338/.435/27
503) Jakob Marsee SDP, OF, 22.9 – I don’t put that much stock into AFL numbers in the vast majority of cases, but Marsee’s dominance in the AFL is more about putting an exclamation point, and highlighting what a great, underhyped season he had all year. He put up a 142 wRC+ with 13 homers, 41 steals, and a 16.4%/17.4% K%/BB% in 113 games at High-A. Then he proved the skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .286/.412/.446 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.7%/15.9% K%/BB% in 16 games at Double-A. He’s now the star of the AFL with a 1.215 OPS, 5 homers, and 16 steals in 24 games. He was great in his pro debut in 2022 as well, and he did nothing but produce in his college career. He must thinking, “what else do I have to do to get some respect around here.” Well, seeing all the hype his AFL performance has gotten him, I think he is about the get the respect he deserves this off-season. 31/5/26/.248/.313/.386/9 2024 Projection: Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.341/.416/26
504) Lonnie White PIT, OF, 21.3 – There have been more sightings of the Yeti than there have been of Lonnie White over the past couple of years, but he finally got extending playing time in the 2nd half of 2023, and the tantalizing talent was on full display. He slashed .259/.395/.488 with 8 homers, 12 steals, and a 28%/16% K%/BB% in 44 games at Single-A. He’s 6’3”, 212 pounds and could have gone to Penn State as a WR, so that tells you the type of elite athlete we are talking about. He has contact issues and he was old for Single-A, so the risk is high, but we’ve now the seen the upside for the first time, and it’s mouth watering. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/23/74/.233/.316/.438/24
505) Gabriel Gonzalez MIN, OF, 20.3 – Gonzalez’ numbers dropped off majorly when he got promoted to High-A. He put up a 149 wRC+ with a 13.7% K% in 73 games at Single-A vs. a 21.5% K% and 83 wRC+ in 43 games at High-A. Single-A was his age appropriate level, but it’s not a great sign that more advanced pitchers were able to exploit his extremely aggressive plate approach (6.5% BB%). He’s not a toolsy guy or imposing figure at 5’10” with below average speed, and his groundball rates have been on the high side at 53.4% at High-A. He does hit the ball hard with more power likely coming (18 homers in 2023), and he does have an excellent feel to hit, but it’s a profile that is lacking upside right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/20/81/.271/.326/.442/8
506) Ralphy Velazquez CLE, C, 18.10 – Selected 23rd overall, Velazquez is not a good defensive catcher, which tells you how much Cleveland loves his bat picking him this high. He rewarded their faith immediately with 2 homers and a 5/3 K/BB in 6 games in rookie ball. He’s a 6’3”, 215 pound bruiser with a smooth lefty swing that is geared for both power and average. He’s also young for his draft class as he’ll still be 18 years old at the start of 2024. I’m extremely high on him, and he strikes me as the Xavier Isaac of this draft class, who I was also high on. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/28/91/.267/.342/.491/3
507) Brayden Taylor TBR, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 19th overall, Taylor’s power took a jump this year with a career high 23 homers in 67 games in the Big 12. He’s not a huge raw power guy, but he hits the ball in the air and he knows how to barrel a baseball. Adding more power was the final step, because he’s an excellent all around hitter with an advanced plate approach. He has a career 146/158 K/BB with a 1.038 OPS in 184 Big 12 games. He’s not a particularly great athlete and he doesn’t have big speed, but he still stole 39 bases in 40 career attempts, so there certainly seems to be some stolen base skills here too. As for his pro debut, the 32.3% K% in 22 games at Single-A is a little scary, considering like I mentioned, he’s not some beastly athlete. On the flip side, he had 5 homers, 9 steals, a 141 wRC+, and is in one of the best organizations in baseball. One the flip side of the flip side, dealing with Tampa’s never ending logjam can be exhausting. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/23/76/.250/.335/.441/16
508) Tai Peete SEA, SS/3B, 18.7 – Selected 30th overall, Peete’s upside is considerable at a projectable 6’3”, 190 pounds with at least plus power potential and above average speed. He has a quick and vicious lefty swing with offensive potential written all over it, but the hit tool and plate approach are still on the raw side. He showed off both the upside and downside in his pro debut. The strikeout rates were on the high side with a 26.2% K% in 10 games in rookie ball and a 28.4% K% in 14 games at Single-A, but the huge talent was shining through with a 125 wRC+ in rookie, and 2 homers with 3 steals at Single-A. He’s also one of the youngest players in the class and won’t turn 19 years old until mid-August. He has a chance to be a truly special player. Don’t underrate him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/26/86/.248/.326/.464/12
509) Dillon Head SDP, OF, 19.6 – Selected 25th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Head is the discount Max Clark. He has double plus speed with a good feel to hit and developing power from the left side. He’s an elite athlete at 5’11”, 180 pounds with room to tack on more muscle, and he’s hit some beastly pull side homers which flashes more power coming in the future. He also handled his business in pro ball, slashing .294/.413/.471 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 14.3%/17.5% K%/BB% in 14 games at rookie ball. He didn’t hit as well at Single-A with a 78 wRC+ in 13 games, but the 16.4% K% shows the skills are going to transfer in the future. If we’re debating Clark vs. Head by this time next year I wouldn’t be completely shocked. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/15/57/.274/.338/.428/27
510) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24
511) Walker Martin SFG, SS, 20.1 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Martin only slipped that far because of signing bonus demands, and he has the talent to back up his demands. He’s a pretty solid 6’2”, 188 pounds with room to add more muscle. He was also a star quarterback in high school to give you an idea of the type of all around athleticism we are talking here. He has plus power potential at peak with above average speed and a good feel to hit from a smooth lefty swing. He checks a ton of boxes. He’s not a completely finished product, and the biggest red flag might be that he will be 20 years old already on Opening Day 2024, which is a year older for his class. 19 year old high school kids aren’t my favorite group to buy from, but every player has to be evaluated on his own merits, and Martin has the type of skills and upside to overlook the age. He’s the Colson Montgomery of this year’s draft. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.266/.337/.467/14
512) Aidan Miller PHI, SS, 19.10 – Selected 27th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, like Martin above, Miller was drafted as a 19 year old high school bat. It’s one of the major reasons I stayed away from Blake Rutherford in 2017 FYPD’s when he was getting lots of hype, but on the other hand, Colson Montgomery was also an older high school bat and he’s doing just fine. It’s a case by case basis, and Miller has the talent to ignore the age. He has one of the top hit/power combos in the high school class. He’s 6’2”, 205 pounds with a lightning quick and powerful righty swing that already generates big exit velocities. He combines that with a mature plate approach, good feel to hit, and a history of performance. He was far too advanced for rookie ball with a 179 wRC+ in 10 games, but he slowed down considerably at the more age appropriate Single-A with a 86 wRC+ in 10 games. He also hit 0 homers in 20 games, although he hit a monster shot in the Single-A playoffs, so I’m not too concerned with his ultimate power. He’s not really a target for me specifically, but the talent is pretty obvious, so I have no issues with being much higher on him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/86/.269/.342/.468/7
513) Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 23.6 – Whisenhunt’s season ended on July 22nd with an elbow strain, and while all indications are that he should be good to go by Spring, it’s hard to be sure he’s completely passed the injury until he truly ramps up for the season. It adds a healthy does of risk to an otherwise very solid and enticing profile. He’s a 6’3”, 210 pound lefty with a clean and traditional delivery that has mid rotation MLB starter written all over it, especially in the pitcher’s paradise of SF. The money maker is a double plus changeup which racks up whiffs, and he combines that with an average curve and average mid 90’s fastball. The stuff completely overwhelmed lower minors hitters with a 56/12 K/BB in 39 IP, and while he wasn’t quite as good at Double-A, he was still good with a 3.20 ERA and 32.1%/13.1% K%/BB% in 19.2 IP. If not for the injury, I would say definitely go after this guy, but with the injury, I might be more comfortable letting him fall into my lap. 2024 Projection: 4/4.21/1.32/79 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.83/1.26/167 in 160 IP
514) Robert Gasser MIL, LHP, 24.10 – Gasser just doesn’t have the stuff to get too excited about him. His fastball sat 92.2 MPH and none of his 5 pitches notched more than a 29.2% whiff% at Triple-A. He’s really more of a junk balling lefty type that likely has #4 starter upside. The most attractive thing about him is his proximity to the bigs, and he’s also put up high strikeout rates throughout his minor league career (28% in 135.1 IP this year), so it’s not like there is nothing of value here, but this is more of a medium to deeper league play for me. 2024 Projection: 8/4.38/1.36/126 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.13/1.32/158 in 155 IP
515) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 20.4 – Stewart is proving to have an elite plate approach with a 15.2%/17.1% K%/BB% in 88 games at Single-A (128 wRC+), which he followed up with a 13.7%/13.7% K%/BB% in 29 games at High-A (127 wRC+). And he’s not the type of plus approach guy who doesn’t have much else to offer, Stewart is an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 215 pounds. He hit only 12 homers in 117 total games, but he hit the ball fairly hard, the raw power is only going up from here, and he didn’t have any major groundball issues. He also stole 15 bags, which shows his speed might be getting underrated. The biggest problem is his defense, and in a jam packed organization like Cincinnati, that could become an issue down the road. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.274/.351/.473/8
516) Bubba Chandler PIT, RHP, 21.6 – Chandler’s stats don’t really jump out with a 4.75 ERA and 25.6%/10.9% K%/BB% in 106 IP at High-A, but his talent most certainly jumps out. He throws a mid to upper 90’s fastball with a plus slider and potentially plus changeup. You just have to watch how he closed out the season at Double-A, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB. He’s a solid rock at 6’2”, and this was his first year as a fulltime pitcher. It sure looks like he has ace upside watching him, but his performance will have to match the talent over an extended time period before I can really start ranking him like that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/170 in 160 IP
517) Luke Adams MIL, 3B, 19.11 – Adams was one of my top late round FYPD targets from last year, and he hit in a major way with a 135 wRC+, 11 homers, 30 steals, and 22.5%/17.3% K%/BB% in 99 games at Single-A. He’s 6’4”, 210 pounds with one of the most fun swings in the game that features both a leg kick and a bat wiggle. It’s the type of swing that you would try out playing whiffle ball as a kid. The stolen base totals might be deceiving because he’s far from a burner, but stolen bases aren’t only about pure speed, so I wouldn’t completely dismiss them. Combine that with a plus plate approach and potentially plus power, and we have one exciting, considerably underrated prospect on our hands. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.253/.337/.449/14
518) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS/3B, 19.5 – Here’s how I closed out Cabrera’s Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, ranking him 985th overall, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t want to pull the rip cord too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated.” That proved wise with Cabrera as he followed up a mediocre pro debut in the DSL in 2022 with a full scale breakout in 2023. He slashed .350/.469/.559 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20%/12% K%/BB% in 39 games at stateside rookie, and then he went to full season ball and put up a 159 wRC+ in 5 games. He has a good feel to hit, a strong plate approach, and a potentially above average power/speed combo. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/20/77/.267/.330/.441/18
519) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 20.6 – Jorge is a small guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard with low EV’s and hard hit rates. It makes me a little hesitant to rank him too highly, but he’s the type to get the most out his raw power through quality of contact. He pulled the ball over 50% of the time and he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He’s a destroyer of levels with a 173 wRC+ in 2021 in the DSL, a 151 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2022, and a 140 wRC+ at Single-A in 2023 (he struggled at High-A to close out the year with a 86 wRC+). What you are really buying here is the very mature plate approach (19.7%/13.2% K%/BB%) and plus speed (31 steals). If the raw power meaningfully ticks up in the future, he will be a fantasy beast, and even if it doesn’t, he has the skillset to make a fantasy impact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/15/61/.263/.337/.421/26
520) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 20.1 – Rodriguez looks like such a natural and easy hitter at the dish. He has a calm setup before exploding with a pretty nasty lefty swing. He’s done nothing but produce in pro ball, and that continued in 2023, slashing .293/.347/.510 with 16 homers, 18 steals, and an 18.9%/6.1% K%/BB% in 101 games at Single-A before slowing down at High-A (88 wRC+ in 14 games). The problem is that he is a small guy at 5’8” who doesn’t have a ton of raw power. He also doesn’t walk a ton. Projecting that out on the MLB level, it could end up looking like a bottom of the order contact/speed play, but maybe that is just the small man bias kicking in. If he was taller, his hype would be a lot louder right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/16/69/.273/.328/.427/23
521) David Festa MIN, RHP, 24.1 – Festa is a long legged 6’6” 185 pounds with a relatively athletic righty delivery considering his size and build. He’ll likely never be a plus control guy, but a 9.6% BB% in 80 IP at Double-A isn’t too bad, and while that exploded to 16.7% in 12.1 IP at Triple-A, I would take it with a grain of salt considering the automated strike zone. The selling point is his truly plus stuff. He throws a mid 90’s fastball to go along with two legit secondaries in his changeup and slider. All three pitches have plus potential and get whiffs. It resulted in a 30.4% K% with a 4.39 ERA at Double-A. If the control remains below average, a high K, high WHIP mid-rotation starter is a reasonable outcome, but if he can get the control to at least average, there is #2 fantasy upside in here. 2024 Projection: 3/4.29/1.36/72 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.31/168 in 155 IP
522) Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.7 – Quintero was one of the top DSL breakouts, and is arguably THE top DSL breakout with a 180 wRC+ that led all qualified age appropriate 17 year olds. He slashed .359/.472/.618 with 5 homers, 22 steals, and a 16%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. He doesn’t have De Paula or Vargas’ obvious projectable size, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 175 pounds, and he’s an electric athlete with plus speed and at least above average power potential. DSL stats have to be taken with some level of restraint, so when I truly stick my neck out for a DSL breakout, they optimally have that prototypical size and pedigree, but if you aren’t as concerned with that, Quintero has a real case to be valued equally to, or even higher than Vargas. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/20/77/.265/.336/.448/22
523) Brando Mayea NYY, OF, 18.7 – Signed for $4.35 million in 2023 international class, Mayea didn’t have nearly as loud of a season that Salas, Walcott or even Joendry Vargas had, but he still backed up the big signing bonus, slashing .276/.382/.400 with 3 homers, 22 steals, and a 15.9%/12.9% K%/BB% in 38 games in the DSL. Everything that landed him that big bonus is still present with a good feel to hit, double plus speed, and an athletic, quick and powerful righty swing. The ball jumps off his bat. He needs to raise his launch with a 58% GB%, and he’s not a not a huge guy at 5’11”, but even if the game power only gets to average, he could still end up a dangerous fantasy profile. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 88/20/81/.275/.345/.440/36
524) Zach Dezenzo HOU, 3B, 23.11 – Dezenzo is a big dude at 6’4”, 220 pounds with big raw power, and his hit tool took a big jump forward in 2023. He struggled with high strikeout rates his entire college career and in his pro debut last year, but he brought his K% all the way down to 20.3% in 31 games at High-A, and it resulted in an offensive explosion with a 195 wRC+. He couldn’t maintain the gains at Double-A with a 28.5% K% in 63 games, which is concerning, but he started lifting the ball a lot more, which allowed his power to shine with 14 homers and a 114 wRC+. He’s not a burner and he’s never stolen bases before this year, so I wouldn’t fully trust the 22 steals, but it definitely adds another layer of upside to his game. I like him, but I wouldn’t really say he is a target of mine as he’s a bit on the old side with hit tool issues and limited defensive value. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/23/75/.244/.318/.452/9
525) Elijah Green WAS, OF, 20.4 – I’ve coined myself the Autobahn of dynasty baseball in the past, because I’m willing to throw caution to the wind, but even I have the urge to throw a seatbelt on and slow down when it comes to Green’s 41.9% K% in 75 games at Single-A. It didn’t even come with a ton of game power with only 4 homers and a 26.7% FB%. The fact he even ranks this high shows the type of elite talent we are talking about though. He’s a yoked 6’3”, 225 pounds with double plus raw power and speed (he stole 30 bags). As we just saw with Brady House, you don’t want to write off elite draft prospects at the first sign of struggles, but extreme strikeout rate struggles are really in their own category. He needs to make major improvements to even get to below average. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/23/77/.234/.316/.468/24
526) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 23.4 – Robinson was finally able to resume his career after not playing since 2019, and he picked up right where he left off, both in a good way and a bad way. He smacked 14 homers with 23 steals and a .915 OPS in 65 games spread across 4 levels (rookie, Single-A, High-A, Double-A), but it came with a 31.6% K% which jumped to 41.2% in 5 games at Double-A. It’s also worth mentioning his groundball rates were well over 50%. You can give him a pass on the extreme K rates because he missed all of that development time, but you can’t get that development time back, and high strikeout rates were an issue for him to begin with. He kept himself in great shape and is still an elite athlete, so the hope is that he just ends up 2-3 years behind schedule, but the there is very real risk the hit tool ends up tanking him. For fantasy especially, he’s worth the upside shot, but there is a lot of work left to be done. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/24/77/.228/.315/.449/22
527) Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 17.11 – Arias played in only 16 games in the DSL due to a sprained wrist that he suffered while attempting to make a diving catch, but damn were those 16 games impressive. He slashed .414/.539/.793 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 14.5%/19.7% K%/BB%. He cracked my Top 1,000 last year at #993 on the back of plus bloodlines, a mature plate approach, and power potential with a big righty swing, so his DSL success shouldn’t come as a surprise. Many other DSL prospects got off to flaming hot starts too who ended up cooling off by the end of the year, but Arias dipped out of the season before giving his numbers a chance to regress. I would caution against putting too much weight on the ridiculous numbers, but Arias is no doubt an extremely exciting prospect. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 86/24/84/.268/.341/.458/9
528) Yophery Rodriguez MIL, OF, 18.4 – There is nothing dynasty players love more than the guy who goes from being on zero Top 100 lists, to hyped to death status in the blink of an eye, and Rodriguez is on the short list to potentially be that guy. He slashed .253/.393/.449 with 6 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.9%/18.3% K%/BB% in 52 games in the DSL. It was good for a 125 wRC+. He has the tools to back it up with a quick and powerful lefty swing that oozes potential. He also has the pedigree with a $1.5 million signing bonus. His prospect status is going to take a major jump in 2024. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/24/81/.266/.344/.463/14
529) Paulino Santana TEX, OF, 17.5 – Santana is the top international OF prospect, and when you watch his swing, you get it immediately. He has a blink of an eye righty swing that is absolutely electric. He combines that with a supremely athletic and projectable 6’2”, 180 pound frame. He has at least plus potential across the board. Texas just did a masterful job on the getting the hype machine overflowing with Sebastian Walcott (Santana isn’t as athletic as the truly insanely athletic Walcott), and they’re about to do the same with Santana. He’s the type of talent to stick your neck out for in first year player drafts. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 89/26/94/.270/.340/.477/23
530) Jacob Wilson OAK, SS, 22.0 – Selected 6th overall, Wilson has one of the safest profiles in the draft. He’s a plus defensive SS with baseball bloodlines and truly elite bat to ball skills. He had a ridiculous 5/19 K/BB and .412 BA in 49 games in the WAC, and then he went to High-A and put up a 10.1% K% with a .318 BA. The power is minimal with only 6 homers this year in college and 1 homer in 26 pro games, but he’s a projectable 6’3”, 190 pounds, so Oakland is clearly betting on more power coming down the line. He’s not a burner, but he does like to run a bit with 12 steals in 14 attempts in 75 combined games. It’s not a very fantasy friendly profile as even with power gains he doesn’t expect to ever be a big home run hitter. It’s just not the profile I love going after, but in very deep leagues, I can see giving him a bump, and he should be up with Oakland in no time. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/14/59/.288/.347/.407/15
531) Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.6 – Selected 20th overall, Nimmala is one of the youngest players in the class by far, and he’s already showing some of the best power potential with a recorded 103 MPH EV at a Perfect Game Event, which is elite for his age range. He has all the trademarks of being an elite power bat with a projectable 6’1”, 170 pound frame, to go along with a viciously quick and athletic righty swing. He also recorded a 6.54 60 yard dash time which is firmly above average. The hit tool still needs refinement which adds risk, but his age gives him a little extra breathing room there, and the upside is tantalizing. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/26/84/.248/.327/.469/12
532) George Lombard NYY, SS, 18.10 – Selected 26th overall, Lombard has baseball bloodlines with his father playing 6 years in the big leagues, and like most plus bloodlines kids, his game is mature beyond his years. He stepped right into pro ball and put up a 202 wRC+ with a 2/5 K/BB in 4 games at rookie ball, and then he closed the year out at Single-A with a 114 wRC+ and 10/8 K/BB in 9 games. He combines the high baseball IQ with plus athleticism at 6’3”, 190 pounds, and has the potential for an at least above average power/speed combo at peak. This is a really nice blend of safety and upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/77/.268/.341/.450/16
533) Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Selected 29th overall, the lefty Farmelo is 6’2”, 200 pounds with double plus speed, a good feel to hit and below average power. He’s already pretty built up, and while there is clearly still room for more muscle at only 19 years old, his swing is geared more towards line drives. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as he’s a true speedster, and he knows how to get the bat on the ball. He has a very nice blend of safety and ceiling. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 79/16/68/.266/.329/.427/23
534) Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 20.0 – Shim has the size and stuff to be a major riser on rankings in 2024, but he’s pitched only 8 innings in his pro career, so he’s still mostly a mystery. I liked him a lot in first year player drafts last year because he has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds, and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid to upper 90’s heat. He has good control over his entire 4 pitch arsenal, with a big curveball as his best secondary. In those 8 innings, he put up a 3.38 ERA with a 43.3%/10% K%/BB% at stateside rookie ball. I really like him as a super cheap target. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.76/1.25/165 in 160 IP
535) Patrick Sandoval LAA, LHP, 27.6 – Sandoval took a major step back in 2023. His ERA rose from 2.91 to 4.11, his K% dropped from 23.7% to 19.6%, and his BB% rose from 9.4% to 11.3%. His velocity was normal, he still had an above average 27.7% whiff%, he still induced weak contact with a 87.6 MPH EV, and the changeup was still excellent with a 43.2% whiff%. The problem was that his heavily used slider took a step back with a ..330 xwOBA and 28.3% whiff%, and his 93.1 MPH fastball is atrocious with a .404 xwOBA. There are elements to like here, but with below average control that got even worse in 2023, it’s hard to think it’s all going to come together for a truly breakout season. He’s only 27 and pitcher development is notoriously non linear, but without improvements to his command and/or velocity, he’s settling in as a #4 starter. 2024 Projection: 9/3.92/1.32/146 in 150 IP
536) Jameson Taillon CHC, RHP, 32.4 – Taillon had that hint of late career breakout hope for a few years as the former 2nd overall pick in the draft, but that hope has dissipated. He had another mediocre year with a 4.84 ERA and 21.4%/6.3% K%/BB% in 154.1 IP. He throws a diverse pitch mix, but none are standout pitches. He was much better in the 2nd half of the season with a 3.38 ERA and 81/21 K/BB in 90.2 IP, so I guess there is some hope he can carry that over into next year. 2024 Projection: 10/4.18/1.25/145 in 160 IP
537) Kenta Maeda DET, RHP, 36.0 – You can’t expect Maeda to rack up innings as he’s had the injury prone tag his entire career, but almost nobody racks up innings anymore, and when he’s out there on the mound, he produces. He had a 3.74 xERA (4.23 ERA) with an excellent 27.3%/6.5% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP. His best pitch is a plus splitter which he combines with an above average slider and fastball. In my shallower leagues, he’s always someone I scoop up for a few dollars at the end of the auction. 2024 Projection: 8/3.78/1.20/143 in 130 IP
538) Dean Kremer BAL, RHP, 28.3 – Kremer was able to maintain most of the control gains he made in 2022 with a 7.5% BB%, and he added a tick of velocity with a 94.1 MPH fastball. It allowed his 4-seamer and cutter to play as above average pitches with a 26.2% and 27.7% whiff%, respectively. But none of his off-speed pitches are very good, and he had a mediocre season overall with a 4.12 ERA and 21.4%/7.5% K%/BB% in 172.2 IP. With only good but not great control, a #4 starter profile is what we are looking at. 2024 Projection: 10/4.10/1.29/140 in 160 IP
539) Michael Wacha KCR, RHP, 32.9 – Wacha throws a heavily used (34.5% usage) double plus changeup that put up a .234 xwOBA and 35.9% whiff%, but that is really the only good thing in his profile. He hasn’t thrown more than 134.1 IP since 2017, his K rates are mediocre (22.4%), he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground (18.5 degree launch), and the control is above average but not great (7.8% BB%). He has put up excellent ERA’s 2 years in a row (3.32 in 2022 and 3.22 in 2023), but his xERA’s were much worse (4.56 and 4.27). He can be a serviceable mid to back end fantasy starter, but it’s just not a profile that I find all that enticing. 2024 Projection: 7/3.78/1.23/128 in 140 IP
540) John Means BAL, RHP, 30.11 – Means underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022 and didn’t return until September of 2023. He made 4 starts and put up a 2.66 ERA with a 11.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 23.2 IP, but he was then shutdown before the playoffs with elbow soreness. The stuff wasn’t far off from career norms, but it was on the low end, and he wasn’t missing any bats at all. If he didn’t get hurt again, I might be apt to give him the benefit of the doubt on returning to full health in 2024, but considering the renewed elbow soreness, the upside isn’t high enough for me to take on the extra risk. 2024 Projection: 7/3.99/1.23/120 in 130 IP
541) Clarke Schmidt NYY, RHP, 28.1 – Clarke improved his control in 2023 with a 6.6% BB% (9.7% in 2022), but his strikeout rate came down with it with a lowly 21.5% K% (23.7% in 2022). His sweeper took a major step back in particular with a 26.3% whiff% (40.7% in 2022). It led to a 4.64 ERA in 159 IP. Nothing in his profile is really standout, but nothing looks all that concerning either. He’s a #4 starter. 2024 Projection: 9/4.21/1.31/141 in 150 IP
542) Tyler Stephenson CIN, C, 27.8 – The 6’4”, 225 pound Stephenson is just not living up to his promise with the bat. He majorly outperformed his underlying numbers in 2020-2022, and he wasn’t able to repeat that trick in 2023 with a 85 wRC+ in 142 games (.305 wOBA vs. .314 xwOBA). The hit tool is regressing with a career worst 28.4% whiff% and .243 BA. The only silver lining is that he hit the ball harder than he ever has with a career best 7.6% Barrel%, 43.5% Hard Hit% and 89.4/94.7 MPH AVG/FB EV. Catchers are notorious for later career offensive breakouts, and he’s always had the raw power to take this step. He’s never been a target for me, and he still isn’t, but I do see a muddied path to Top 12 catcher production with a little luck on his side and hitting in a great ballpark. 2024 Projection: 62/15/63/.258/.333/.416/1
543) Victor Robles WAS, OF, 26.11 – Back spasms ended Robles season after just 36 games, but they were the best 36 games of his career with a 112 wRC+, 8 steals, and a .322 xwOBA. He massively improved his plate approach with a career best 14.3%/8.7% K%/BB%, and he brough his EV way up to a not terrible 86.7 MPH. He needed to bring his launch way down to do it at 9.9 degrees, and he didn’t hit a single homer. He still seems to have the starting CF job, and while the upside isn’t high, he could be a legit contributor in steals if the plate approach gains prove real. 2024 Projection: 63/8/46/.253/.319/.382/24
544) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – Wicks is the type of safety over upside prospect that is more valuable in deeper leagues, but it’s not like there are no skills to get excited about. He understands the art of pitching with a 6 pitch mix, he has a legitimate plus offering in his changeup, and he keeps the ball on the ground with 3 of his pitches generating negative launch angles (sinker, cutter, curve). He had a 3.55 ERA with a 26.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 91.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with a 4.41 ERA (4.18 xERA) and 16.3%/7.5% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. It’s likely #4 starter upside with only 92.1 MPH heat and average control, but he’s worth a spot in the back of your fantasy rotation even in shallower leagues. 2024 Projection: 9/4.22/1.31/136 in 150 IP
545) Jordan Hicks SFG, RHP, 27.7 – The Giants signed Hicks to a 4 year, $44 million contract and announced they plan on using him as a “starter.” I put “starter” in quotes, because I’m not sure SF really fully understands what the accepted definition of starter is. I’m expecting them to deploy him in a variety of roles (opener, follower, multi inning reliever, one inning reliever, janitor, ticket salesman, stadium security …). He throws insane gas with a 100.1 MPH sinker that put up a negative 6 degree launch and 86.9 MPH EV against, to go along with an elite sweeper that notched a 59.5% whiff%. It resulted in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP in a one inning role. I would be much more comfortable going after him in deeper leagues where I’m not as concerned about his role, but if you’re in a shallow-ish QS league, it might be hard to really figure out where he fits in on your squad. 2024 Projection: 7/3.82/1.34/120 in 110 IP
546) Nick Martinez CIN, RHP, 33.8 – Going from San Diego to Cincinnati is a major ballpark downgrade, and Martinez doesn’t have a guaranteed rotation spot, but he has a super interesting profile. His bat missing ability took a major step forward in 2023 with an excellent 28.6% whiff%. He throws a legit 5 pitch mix led by an elite changeup that notched a .204 xwOBA and 46.5% whiff%. He keeps the ball on the ground with a 6.4 degree launch, and he induces weak contact with a 84.7 MPH EV against. It led to a 3.43 ERA with a 23%/8.7% K%/BB% in 110.1 IP. Keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats is a good combo for Great American Ball Park. He might end up in a swingman role, but Martinez has a relatively high floor and some very sneaky upside. 2024 Projection: 7/3.79/1.30/120 in 125 IP
547) Josiah Gray WAS, RHP, 26.3 – While Gore is a young Nationals pitcher I’m willing to stick my neck out for, Gray is one I’m selling. I’m not buying his 3.91 ERA in 159 IP at all with xERA, xFIP, and SIERA all sitting around 5.00. He put up a 4.76 ERA in the 2nd half, the 20.5%/11.5% K%/BB% doesn’t inspire much confidence, and his stuff really isn’t that big with a 93.5 MPH 4-seamer. ERA can hold at least some weight in trade talks, so his good ERA combined with his age and former prospect pedigree could result in you actually getting a decent return for him this off-season. 2024 Projection: 8/4.33/1.35/154 in 160 IP
548) Tylor Megill NYM, RHP, 28.8 – The Senga injury opened the door for Megill to win a rotation spot, and he’s that door down in the spring with a dominating performance. He’s working on some new pitches, and as usual, the stuff is enticing enough to get a little excited for him. This isn’t the first Megill hype train though, and he’s yet to put up an ERA better than 4.52. He has a career 4.72 ERA in 263.1 IP, so have some caution, but he’s definitely worth a flier in the back of your rotation. 2024 Projection: 9/4.32/1.33/135 in 140 IP
549) Reynaldo Lopez ATL, RHP, 30.3 – Lopez’ filthy stuff got even filthier with a career high 98.2 MPH fastball, and it resulted in his best season ever with a 3.27 ERA and 29.9%/12.2% K%/BB% in 66 IP. Atlanta is now in the process of turning him back into a starter, which is something he is familiar with as he threw over 180 IP in both 2018 and 2019. He’s been looking good in spring as well, and he has the arsenal to start if he throws his solid changeup more. He might be the favorite for the 5th starter job, and is definitely entering target range. 2024 Projection: 8/3.89/1.27/129 in 130 IP
550) Joe Boyle OAK, RHP, 24.8 – Oakland is the land of misfit toys, and Joe “Wild Thing” Boyle is making himself at home. He’s put up insanely high walk rates every single year of his career, sitting at 17.8% in 117.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. But Oakland has nothing to lose by letting his elite stuff fly in the majors and letting the chips fall where they may, and the chips fell in a perfect spot in his 16 IP MLB debut at the end of the season. He put up a 1.69 ERA with a 25%/8.3% K%/BB% over 3 outings. The fastball sat 97.8 MPH and the slider was plus with a .186 xwOBA and 32.3% whiff%. His entire career says you shouldn’t trust that MLB BB%, but Oakland seems intent on unleashing him, and you gotta love the upside. If the price is right, why not take a shot on him, and he has the fallback of having elite reliever potential. 2024 Projection: 5/4.43/1.44/126 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.43/1.24/85/20 saves in 65 IP Update: The improved control has so far transferred into the spring, and while I’m still not going after him, it definitely makes him more enticing
551) Michael Kopech CHW, Closer Committee, 27.11 – Kopech was a disaster in 2023 with a 5.43 ERA and 22.7%/15.4% K%/BB% in 129.1 IP. He battled a shoulder injury mid year and knee surgery ended his season in late September. The only silver lining is that he still throws hard with a 95.2 MPH fastball, but it’s a below average fastball regardless with a 91.4 MPH EV against. He looked so bad in spring too that Chicago just moved him to the bullpen, which is actually a boom to his value because at least now he has a chance to win the closer job. 2024 Projection: 4/3.81/1.30/71/15 saves in 65 IP
552) Lance Lynn STL, RHP, 36.11 – If the Dodgers couldn’t magically turn Lynn around, what hope do the rest of the mere mortals have? St. Louis is willing to give it a shot for a cool $11 million, but I wouldn’t even spend $11 of fake auction money on him. He had a 5.73 ERA (4.83 xERA) with a 5 year worst 23.6%/8.3% K%/BB% in 183.2 IP. His velocity is on a 5 year decline with it tanking to 92.6 MPH, and his 10.4% Barrel% is a career worst by far. Like I mentioned above, the Dodgers tried to work their magic, and while they did manage to bring his ERA down to 4.36 in 64 IP, they needed to kill his strikeout rate to do it with a 17.2% K%. He’ll be 37 years old about one month into the 2024 season, and his decline couldn’t be more clear cut, starting in 2022 and really hitting it’s stride in 2023. I do expect him to bounce back somewhat from his disaster season, and St. Louis is building a nursing home rotation of old, low velocity, pitch to contact pitchers, so maybe he can learn a thing or two about how to survive in your decline years, but his days of being a truly impact fantasy starter seem over. 2024 Projection: 10/4.27/1.31/158 in 165 IP
553) Keaton Winn SFG, RHP, 26.1 – Winn is in starter/reliever limbo where it’s hard to really prioritize him when he can easily end up in the bullpen long term. He has a fastball/splitter combo that probably belongs in the bullpen, so that is where I am projecting him. In his MLB debut, the fastball sat 96 MPH with a 30% whiff% and the splitter put up a 34.4% whiff% with a .271 xwOBA. He only put up a 4.68 ERA with a 20.3%/4.7% K%/BB% in 42.1 IP, but that K% is definitely on the low side with a 30% whiff%. He’s had good control in his career other than with the automated strike zone at Triple-A. If you are looking for possible breakout late inning relievers, Winn is not a bad option, and I guess there is chance they keep him in the rotation. 2024 Projection: 7/3.95/1.33/110 in 100 IP
554) Mike Soroka CHW, RHP, 26.8 – It looks like injuries took another super talented pitcher from us. Soroka returned to the mound after tearing his Achilles twice and missing two seasons, and he looked mighty rusty out there, to say the least. He put up a 6.40 ERA with a 20%/8.3% K%/BB% in 32.1 IP. He was then shutdown in September with a forearm injury. He was better at Triple-A with a 3.41 ERA and 25.9%/7.9% K%/BB% in 87 IP, and the velocity was good at 93.2 MPH, but there really isn’t anything else to hang your hat on. All of his 4 pitches were below average. Betting on Soroka is basically just a shot in the dark the he will get better as he gets further away from those injuries, but picking up a forearm injury to end the year makes it hard to even want to bet on that. He should go for super, super, super cheap, so I guess there’s that. 2024 Projection: 6/4.29/1.33/107 in 120 IP Upate: He’s looked solid spring, and while I’m still not going after him, it makes me a little more likely to take a flier on him
555) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 25.4 – All signs point towards Burleson being a really good hitter if given the chance, but he’s a poor defensive player, so there is no guarantee he is given the chance, and the leash will also be very short. He hits the ball hard with a 89.9 MPH EV, he has elite contact rates with a 13% K%, and he has a solid 12.4 degree launch. It was good for a well above average .337 xwOBA in 347 MLB PA. The surface stats weren’t nearly as impressive with a .244 BA, 8 homers, and a 89 wRC+, but a lot of that was surely bad luck with a .300 wOBA. I don’t really see a path to full time at bats, so he’s merely a flier in medium to deeper leagues, but I legitimately like the bat. 2024 Projection: 58/16/64/.264/.322/.436/5
556) Dominic Canzone SEA, OF, 26.8 – Canzone has a pretty similar profile to Alec Burleson. He’s a poor defensive player who hits the ball hard (89.7 MPH EV), gets the bat on the ball (17.6% K%), and lifts it (16.3 degree launch). The MLB debut wasn’t great with a .282 wOBA, but the .326 xwOBA looks much better. There isn’t a path to full time at bats, but I like the bat in general. 2024 Projection: 57/17/63/.255/.319/.429/6
557) Tyler Freeman CLE, 3B/2B, 24.10 – It doesn’t look like Freeman is going to develop the necessary power to let his profile shine with a 85.8 MPH EV in 168 MLB PA. He gets the bat on the ball (17.9% K%) and he’s fast (28.6 ft/sec sprint), but he hasn’t been great on defense and he’s never really been a huge base stealer. He did have a .272 xBA (.242 BA) and a .315 xwOBA (.290 wOBA), so he got a bit unlucky in 2023, but he’s a utility infielder until hopefully he can develop enough power in his mid to late 20’s. 2024 Projection: 61/9/41/.261/.321/.398/18 Update: Cleveland transitioned Freeman to OF and it seems he won the CF job
558) Luke Raley SEA, 1B/OF, 29.6 – The move to Seattle definitely gives Raley a bump as there is now a chance he could have a full time role, and he hit lefties well enough in 2023 to win one with a .741 OPS. He hit 19 homers with 14 steals in 406 PA, and the underlying numbers back it up with a 12.9% Barrel%, 91.1/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, 17.3 degree launch, and 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. On the flip side, it comes with a terrible 31.4%/6.9% K%/BB% and 38.9% whiff%. The hit tool still makes him risky, and there is no guarantee he isn’t platooned, but the power/speed combo is high enough to make him an enticing upside pick. 2024 Projection: 58/18/61/.235/.319/.448/13 Update: It looks like Raley might have lost that starting job to Canzone
559) LaMonte Wade SFG, 1B/OF, 33.3 – Wade is a strong side of a platoon bat who makes the most out of his average-ish power (88.4/92.6 MPH AVG/FB EV) with a high launch (17.4 degrees), a high Pull% (43.3%), and an excellent plate approach (18.3%/14.6% K%/BB%). 2024 Projection: 72/18/65/.250/.350/.427/2
560) Seth Brown OAK, OF, 31.9 – Brown is a strong side of a platoon bat at best, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up a bench bat, even on Oakland. He’s a below average defensive player and average-ish hitter. The bottom dropped out for him in 2023 with a 92 wRC+, but that was mostly bad luck as the underlying numbers were mostly within career norms, except for sprint speed (27.3 ft/sec), which shows he might be passed his physical prime. He hits the ball very hard with a 90.5 MPH EV and 16.4 degree launch, so he’ll pop plenty of dingers, but he might hurt you in every other category. 2024 Projection: 53/23/70/.233/.308/.434/7
561) Javier Baez DET, SS, 31.4 – Not only didn’t Baez bounce back from a poor 2022, but he tanked even further with a horrific 61 wRC+ in 136 games, and the underlying numbers aren’t giving him a lifeline either. His 5.2% Barrel% was a career low and his .283 xwOBA was well below average. He doesn’t walk with a 4.4% BB% and he swings and misses a lot with a 32.6% whiff%. His power metrics are all down from his prime years and so is his speed. He’s only 31 years old, he’s a plus defensive shortstop, and an 88 MPH EV with a 28.1 ft/sec sprint and 22.9% K% doesn’t seem hopeless, so I don’t think a bounce back would be crazy, but you would be crazy to be banking on it. He’s a bench flier. 2024 Projection: 64/17/68/.236/.281/.398/13
562) Willi Castro MIN, OF/3B, 26.11 – Castro stole 33 bags in 409 PA in 2023. That right there is all you need to know to make him fantasy relevant, and unfortunately, that is just about all he does well too. The hit tool and plate approach have been average at best his entire pro career (24.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 2023), and the power has been below average (86.5 MPH EV). He looks to be in a 400+ PA super utility role. 2024 Projection: 52/9/39/.253/.321/.396/22
563) Brenton Doyle COL, OF, 25.10 – I talked about how much opportunity plays a role in success in the New York Mets Dynasty Team Report, and Doyle’s elite CF defense could very well earn him that opportunity. He put up a 21.6 defensive value in 126 games in 2023, which allowed him to put up a 0.9 WAR despite a horrible 43 wRC+. There is no way around it, he’s a terrible hitter with a 35%/5.1% K%/BB%, but he still managed to jack 10 homers with 22 steals. He has elite speed (29.9 ft/sec sprint) and average power (88.3 MPH EV). There’s no guarantee he can hold down the starting CF job, but his elite defense gives Colorado every reason to give him enough leash to figure it out, and if he does figure it out, he can be an impact fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 52/12/36/.230/.299/.396/23 Update: Doyle’s contact rates have looked much better this spring. He’s still only in flier range for me, but he’s more interesting now
564) Lucas Giolito BOS, RHP, 29.9 – Giolito dropped off a cliff in 2022, and he was still at the bottom of the cliff in 2023. He put up a 4.88 ERA with a 25.7%/9.2% K%/BB% in 184.1 IP. His velocity is still down from prime levels with a 93.1 MPH fastball, and his formerly plus changeup and slider are now average-ish. I could see giving him the track record benefit of the doubt in 2023, but doing it again in 2024 just seems like wishful thinking. 2024 Projection: 10/4.23/1.30/191 in 175 IP Update: Diagnosed with a torn UCL and flexor strain and could miss all of 2024 at the least
565) Ramon Laureano CLE, OF, 29.9 – Laureano didn’t take advantage of the new stolen base rules with 12 steals in 105 games, so his formerly relatively valuable modest stolen base totals are no longer nearly as valuable. And he doesn’t have the BA or power to make up for it with a .224 BA (career .245 BA) and 9 homers. He currently has a full time job, but he doesn’t hit righties well (.613 OPS), so he can very quickly turn into a short side of a platoon player. 2024 Projection: 60/16/50/.237/.311/.400/15
566) Jon Berti MIA, SS/3B, 34.2 – Good luck trying to get a read on Berti’s stolen base projections. He stole 26 bags in 112 games in 2019-2020 combined, then he stole a measly 8 bags in 85 games in 2021, before exploding with 41 steals in 102 games in 2022, and then falling back down in 2023 with only 16 steals in 133 games with the new rules. There doesn’t seem to be a rhyme or reason for how much he runs, and you know me, I’m constantly looking for rhyme’s to explain why guys steal bases. He has double plus speed with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint, so declining speed isn’t the reason either. He put up a career best .294 BA with a 18.2% K% in 2023, but at 33 years old, I’m not sure I can fully buy into the huge BA jump, and it came at the cost of his BB% (6.8%) and EV (85.4 MPH). At the end of the day, Berti’s value is tied to his stolen bases, and your guess is as good as mine for where they will land in 2024. 2024 Projection: 71/9/48/.264/.335/.386/25
567) Whit Merrifield PHI, 2B/OF, 35.2 – Merrifield has actually aged relatively gracefully, and he had another productive fantasy season in 2023 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a .272 BA. His speed is still more or less in prime form with a 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. But it’s still clear he’s in a decline. His 85.1 MPH EV and .276 xwOBA were both career lows, and even with the solid surface stats, it resulted in only a 130th overall finish on the Razzball Player Rater. He seems to be a super utility player for Philly, so you can’t count on full time at bats. 2024 Projection: 61/9/52/.262/.310/.380/19
568) J.D. Davis OAK, 3B, 30.11 – Davis received a career high by far 546 PA, and he really wasn’t able to do much with them with 18 homers, 61 Runs, 69 RBI, and a .248/.325 BA/OBP. The ballpark did him no favors and a 27.8 K%, 7.8 degree launch, and 25.7 ft/sec sprint is really not the recipe for success. He hits the ball tremendously hard with a 91.1/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, but without the supporting skills, it will only lead to a decent season like 2023. 2024 Projection: 65/19/73/.252/.334/.427/1
569) Cavan Biggio TOR, 1B/2B/OF, 29.0 – There seems to be enough open spots in Toronto at the moment that Biggio has a chance of carving out an almost full time role. He’s a high strikeout player (26% K%) who hits a lot of weak flyballs (92.2 MPH FB EV with a 15.7 degree launch). It led to a .235 BA with only 9 homers in 338 PA. OBP is what you’re buying with a .340 OBP and 11.8% BB%, and he’ll also steal a handful of bags with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. In OBP leagues, there is a path to legit value with a moderate power/speed combo, but in BA leagues, the power/speed combo isn’t good enough enough to make up for a BA that will drag you. 2024 Projection: 69/14/54/.232/.341/.389/9
570) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 37.9 – Blackmon’s contact rates are still in prime form as he actually put up a career best 13.3% K% in 2023, but his power/speed combo has declined to the point where he isn’t an impact fantasy player. He put up a 86.4 MPH EV with 8 homers and 4 steals in 96 games. His decline started 4 years ago, and I will give him credit that he plateaued over the next 4 years, maintaining about average production. He signed a one year contract extension with Colorado, and it sure seems like this could be his final year. 2024 Projection: 73/15/62/.270/.340/.430/7
571) JJ Bleday OAK, OF, 26.5 – Bleday took a step forward in his 2nd year in the majors, but that step took him from horrible to just below average with a 92 wRC+ in 82 games. The overall underlying numbers weren’t good either with a .298 xwOBA, but some of the individual components show hope. He had an average 6.4% Barrel% with a respectable 88.6/93.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, 15.5 degree launch, and 23.8%/13.9% K%/BB%. Those numbers should be good enough to hit for some real power with a solid BA. A .226 BABIP seems at least partly responsible for the .195 BA, and he did manage 10 homers in about half a season. He’s not fast, but he also chipped in 5 steals. There is actually a legitimate path for Bleday to be a good platoon bat (he’s terrible vs. lefties), and while Oakland’s terrible lineup will drag down anything he is able to muster up, that is also the reason he even has playing time in the first place. 2024 Projection: 48/15/43/.227/.321/.416/7
572) Joey Loperfido HOU, OF/2B, 24.11 – Loperfido actually already broke out in 2022 with a 142 wRC+ at Single-A and 166 wRC+ at High-A, but nobody seemed to care or notice. We’re noticing him now though with him fully keeping it up at Double-A, slashing .296/.392/.548 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 22.2%/12.9% K%/BB% in 84 games. He most certainly has the talent to back up the production at 6’4”, 220 pounds with plus power, plus speed, and a big lefty swing. He fell off towards the end of the year at Triple-A with a 32.6% K% and 79 wRC+ in 32 games, he’s on the old side even for the upper minors, and the groundball rates are higher than optimal, but I’m mostly buying the breakout. 2024 Projection: 27/5/22/.229/.302/.412/5 Prime Projection: 73/22/76/.247/.321/.448/16
573) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Collier had a very lackluster season with only 6 homers, a 53% GB%, and a .706 OPS in 111 games at Single-A. There is no doubt his value is lower today than it was last off-season, but there are enough positives to think the best is yet to come. He was very young for his draft class and was just 18 years old playing the entire season in full season ball. He hit the ball very hard, especially for his age, and he showed a strong plate approach with a 23%/12.4% K%/BB%. His 98 wRC+ was also nearly average. If he can raise his launch angle, and I would bet on him being able to do so, he can still very easily live up to hit plus hit/power profile coming out of the draft. He’s a hold. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/24/84/.265/.334/.468/5
574) Blake Dunn CIN, OF, 25.7 – Dunn had a bonkos statistical season, slashing .312/.425/.522 with 23 homers, 54 steals, and a 23.3%/11.1% K%/BB% in 124 games at High-A and Double-A, but there are reasons to not go all in. He’s already 25 years old, his hard hit rates and EV are mediocre, and good luck figuring out where he fits into Cincy’s stacked organization. He might be in his late 20’s by the time he hits his full stride in the majors and has a full time job open up. He has the speed to make a fantasy impact if he does get playing time, and the hit tool is solid, so I certainly see the upside, but he’s not really a target for me. 2024 Projection: 18/3/15/.246/.310/.402/6 Prime Projection: 69/16/66/.261/.327/.423/26
575) Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.11 – Lawrence and Clarke both came into 2023 as tooled up prospects with major hit tool issues, and while Butler was able to take a monster step forward, Clarke remains a tooled up prospect with major hit tool issues. He went Double-A and slashed .261/.381/.496 with 12 homers, 11 steals, and a 29.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 64 games. He hits the ball very hard at 6’5”, 220 pounds and he has some speed too, but the hit tool can tank him. Oakland is a perfect organization to take a shot on guy like him though. 2024 Projection: 17/6/22/.214/.292/.418/3 Prime Projection: 69/27/78/.229/.316/.452/13
576) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 20.7 – Arroyo got off to a cold start in April and May, be he turned it on in June and never looked back, slashing .281/.360/.480 with 9 homers, 25 steals, and a 20.1%/10.1% K%/BB% in his final 89 games. 4 of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 153 wRC+, albeit with a 30%/5% K%/BB%. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, he has plus speed, and at 6’0”, 175 pounds, there is definitely room for him to add more power. I’m not sure I see a star when I watch him, but he’s still quite young, and I wouldn’t completely rule that out as a possibility at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/74/.253/.320/.428/25 Update: Underwent season ending shoulder surgery
577) Jake Cronenworth SDP, 2B/1B, 30.2 – Cronenworth has gotten worse every single year of his career with a .831 OPS in 2020, .800 OPS in 2021, .722 OPS in 2022, and a .689 OPS in 2023. He’s the Benjamin Button of Baseball. He hits the ball weakly with a 87.4/91.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he hits the ball in the air with a 15.2 degree launch, and he plays in one of the worst parks for lefty homers. That isn’t a recipe for success, and that played out in 2023 with only 10 homers and a .229 BA. He doesn’t have much competition for the job at the moment, but San Diego could always bring someone in this off-season, there is talk of moving Bogaerts off SS with Jackson Merrill not too far off, and Nathan Martorella is lurking too. He’s basically a worst case scenario 1B/2B at this point and is quickly headed to a bench role. 2024 Projection: 67/14/59/.242/.324/.394/5
578) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/SS, 20.3 – Delgado backed up his 2022 breakout in the DSL with all of his skills transferring stateside in 2023, slashing .293/.414/.485 with 8 homers, 36 steals, and a 13%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. Proving it stateside is one box checked off, but he was still one year older than optimal for the level, and he is still a small guy at only 5’7”. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he ended up a utility infielder, but he’s a legitimately electric player who I think can overcome his small stature. If he can keep up the production at a more age appropriate level, he will be an easy Top 100 prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.343/.428/26
579) Edgar Quero CHW, C, 21.0 – Quero is a relatively boring fantasy prospect. He has a plus plate approach (16.7%/15.8% K%/BB%), strong age to level production (106 wRC+ as a 20 year old at Double-A), and above average raw power, but he hit only 6 homers in 101 games due to a 50% GB%. He’s also not a great defensive catcher, so it is no guarantee that his glove locks him down a full time catching job. Chicago’s catcher of the future job (and catcher of the present job) is wide open at the moment, so Quero might not have to even be that great to take ahold of the job in the near future. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/17/65/.267/.340/.432/5
580) Jackson Ferris LAD, LHP, 20.3 – Ferris is a big, slinging lefty at 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with a plus mid 90’s fastball that absolutely explodes out of his hand. He combines the heat with a two potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a lesser used, developing changeup. He dominated Single-A hitters with a 3.38 ERA and 32.5% K% in 56 IP, and while he did it in mostly short outings, he was up to 5 IP a couple times towards the end of the season. Along with staying healthy and building up innings, the biggest issue will be his control. He had a 13.9% BB% and he doesn’t exactly have the most repeatable delivery. There is elite pitching prospect upside with control gains and continued refinement, but there is also bullpen risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.32/185 in 160 IP
581) Jack Leiter TEX, RHP, 23.11 – Leiter followed up a disaster pro debut in 2022 with a slightly better, but still bad season in 2023. He put up a 5.19 ERA with a 30.7%/13.2% K%/BB% in 85 IP at mostly Double-A. The talent that made him the 2nd pick in the 2021 Draft is still there with an athletic delivery, an electric mid 90’s fastball, and a plus slider. Striking out over 30% of batters in the upper minors is impressive, and after Texas put him on the developmental list for almost 2 months in July-August for mechanical tweaks, he came back with better control, putting up a 29/6 K/BB in his final 19.2 IP. I’m inclined to keep betting on the talent and bloodlines here, although I think a high K mid rotation starter is a more reasonable ceiling right now. 2024 Projection: 2/4.38/1.39/31 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.32/179 in 165 IP
582) Brock Porter TEX, RHP, 20.10 – Porter pitched almost exactly to my scouting report of him coming out of the draft. The delivery still doesn’t look particularly great to me and his control/command is scattershot with a 14.3% BB% in 69.1 IP at Single-A, but the stuff is filthy with 3 potentially plus pitches. The fastball sits mid 90’s, the changeup is a nasty dive bombing pitch, and the breaking ball is potentially plus but still needs refinement. It led to a 2.47 ERA with a 32.4% K%. There is rawness all around in his game, but it was a successful pro debut in 2023, and there should only be further improvements from here. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.30/183 in 165 IP
583) Thomas White MIA, LHP, 19.6 – Selected 35th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, White is a big lefty with big stuff who is really easy to dream on. He’s 6’5”, 210 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his curve and change that he fires from an almost sidearm lefty delivery. The delivery is very easy and repeatable. He doesn’t have pinpoint command, and he walked 6 batters in his 4.1 IP pro debut, so it’s possible control will be an issue early in his career. He has legitimate top of the rotation upside, but he obviously still has a lot to prove. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 12/3.79/1.28/190 in 170 IP
584) Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.0 – When the Dodgers aggressively go after somebody (they made a trade for international moola right before signing Jang), you take notice, and you also jump aboard knowing how good they are at development. The 6’4”, 200 pound Jang was expected to be the #1 overall pick in the Korea League Draft before signing with LA, and after watching every video I could find of him, it’s very easy to see why. His stuff is genuinely explosive with a plus to double plus 4 pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball that rockets out of his hand, a knee buckling curve that looks like it could be double plus, a plus slider, and a potentially plus change. He is also way mature beyond his years on the mound with an athletic delivery and good control. I think he has legit ace upside and isn’t going to be ranked even close to where he deserves to be. Go after Jang hard in first year player drafts, and I’m tempted to go even higher on him, but you likely won’t have to reach too far to grab him in your drafts based on his current hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/185 in 170 IP
585) Ryan Weathers MIA, LHP, 24.4 – Weathers has put himself back on the map with a strong spring and showing increased stuff. Injuries have also opened up a spot in the rotation for him to prove himself before everyone gets healthy. It puts him in flier range. 2024 Projection: 6/4.33/1.34/108 in 120 IP
586) Liover Peguero PIT, 2B/SS, 23.3 – Peguero is one of many Pitt infielders vying for the 2nd base job, but any of them would just be keeping the seat warm for Termarr Johnson, and honestly, Johnson might be better than all of them already. Peguero put together a solid season in the upper minors, slashing .260/.333/.462 with 13 homers, 21 steals, and a 17.5%/10.1% K%/BB% in 76 games at mostly Double-A, but he was very bad in his MLB debut with a 74 wRC+, .270 xwOBA, and a 31.5%/5.2% K%/BB% in 213 PA. His groundball rates have been generally high throughout his minor league career (4.1 degree launch in the majors), he’s mostly had a slightly below average plate approach which reared it’s ugly head in the majors, and while his 89.3 MPH AVG EV was strong, it sat at only 91.8 MPH for FB/LD. He has double plus speed (29.3 ft.sec sprint) and at 6’2”, 200 pounds, there should only be more power coming, so there is real upside in his profile, but it’s not one I’m really reaching for. 2024 Projection: 36/7/31/.244/.308/.397/12 Prime Projection: 74/18/66/.258/.322/.417/22
587) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 25.0 – There are zero signs that Adell is any closer to figuring out MLB pitchers. He put up a 40.3%/6.5% K%/BB% in 62 MLB PA, and when he returned from an oblique injury in September, he put up a .628 OPS with a 19/3 K/BB in 12 games. He played well at Triple-A with a 122 wRC+ and 26.4%/12.1% K%/BB%, but considering there was literally zero improvement in the majors, I’m not sure it really matters. Adell wouldn’t be the first super toolsy guy who couldn’t figure out MLB pitching until his late 20’s, so I don’t think a late career breakout is out of the question, but he also wouldn’t be the first who never figured it out. 2024 Projection: 27/8/34/.224/.298/.426/4
588) Ji-Hwan Bae PIT, 2B/OF, 24.8 – Bae had a poor rookie year with a 66 wRC+, and he’s going to have to fight for playing time, but there is a very valuable fantasy profile lurking in here. The speed is truly elite with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint and 24 steals in 371 PA, he hits the ball hard for his profile with a 88.1/92.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he has a solid plate approach with a 24.8%/8.1% K%/BB%. His speed alone will provide fantasy value if he gets the playing time, and he has the potential to be more than just a speed guy. 2024 Projection: 51/5/37/.251/.320/.388/19 Prime Projection: 76/12/58/.267/.338/.402/32
589) Prelander Berroa CHW, Closer Committee, 24.0 – Berroa was unsurprisingly moved to the bullpen in 2023, which is exactly where he belongs with an upper 90’s fastball, double plus slider, and below average control. He dominated Double-A with a 2.89 ERA and 36.6%/14.1% K%/BB% in 65.1 IP, and then he closed out his season in the majors, throwing a perfect inning with 2 K’s. Chicago’s closer job is open, but he has a lot of competition, both for this year and in the future. 2024 Projection: 3/3.58/1.27/70 in 55 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.20/1.15/85 in 65 IP
590) Kyle Hurt LAD, RHP, 25.10 – All signs point towards LA deploying Hurt as a multi inning bullpen weapon in the near future. He reached 5 IP in only 4 of 26 upper minors outings, and he was already 25 years old for most of the 2023 season. His 92 IP this year was a career high. The profile also plays in shorter outings with below average control (11.3% BB%) of two plus to double plus pitches in his 95.5 MPH 4-seamer and 87.1 MPH changeup. It led to an insane 39.2% K%. He throws a decent slider and curve, so it’s not impossible for him to end up a starter, but neither misses a ton of bats. In shallower leagues, his likely middle innings role could make it hard to roster him, but in medium to deeper leagues, he’s good enough to make a real impact out of the bullpen, and he can certainly end up in the rotation if injuries open up a spot for him. 2024 Projection: 5/3.78/1.30/99 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.55/1.26/150 in 130 IP
591) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – The 6’4”, 207 pound Tidwell is a high upside pitcher with both control risk and reliever risk. He throws an electric fastball/slider combo with the fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider racking up whiffs. It led to a 3.09 ERA with a 33% K% in 81.2 IP at High-A and a 4.72 ERA with a 27.7% K% in 34.1 IP at Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the danger zone with a 12.9% BB%, and the changeup needs to develop into a legitimate 3rd pitch. You want to aim for upside in fantasy, which is why I like Tidwell at his current value, but he can very easily end up in the pen. 2024 Projection: 2/4.32/1.36/39 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/170 in 150 IP
592) Luis Morales OAK, RHP, 21.6 – I was relatively high on Morales in the 2023 FYPD Rankings after signing for almost $3 million, and his debut didn’t disappoint with a 2.86 ERA and a 29.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 44 IP split between the DSL, stateside rookie, Single-A and High-A. He’s 6’3”, 190 pounds with an explosive mid to upper 90’s fastball that has reportedly hit triple digits, a plus breaking ball and a hard developing changeup. His control can be spotty, but he’s far from wild, generally throwing around the plate. He still has a ton to prove in terms of maintaining his stuff over longer outings, building up his innings, facing more advanced competition, and tightening up his control and changeup, but there is legit #2 starter upside here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.83/1.24/163 in 150 IP
593) Adam Mazur SDP, RHP, 22.11 – Mazur checks a ton of boxes. He’s a projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with an athletic delivery, low to mid 90’s fastball, elite control, diverse pitch mix (slider, curve, changeup), and upper minors success. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 22.8%/4.3% K%/BB% in 96 IP at High-A and Double-A. The ERA ballooned to 4.03 at Double-A, so the stuff isn’t exactly unhittable, and the curve and changeup need more refinement. He has low WHIP, mid rotation starter upside. 2024 Projection: 2/4.41/1.31/34 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.08/1.24/148 in 160 IP
594) Mason Black SFG, RHP, 24.4 – Black performed very well in the upper minors with a 3.71 ERA and 155/52 K/BB in 123.2 IP split evenly between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a 6’3”, 230 pound bull with an almost sidearm righty delivery that he uses to throw a bowling ball 93.7 MPH plus sinker. The slider is above average, he doesn’t go to his other secondaries very often, and the control is about average, so he feels more like a #4 type starter at the moment. There are multiple avenues to reach his mid-rotation upside (control jumping to plus, velocity bumping 1-2 MPH, non slider secondaries improving), but there is no guarantee any of that happens. I really liked him during the season, and while I still do, I’m pulling back on his upside a bit. 2024 Projection: 4/4.36/1.35/76 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.28/155 in 155 IP
595) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Ryan’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen with a 3.90 ERA and 24.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 104.1 IP at mostly Double-A, but his stuff most certainly does with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider leading the way. He also throws a curve and changeup that both have plus potential. He has a repeatable and athletic righty delivery at 6’2”, 195 pounds, and he doesn’t have a ton of experience starting, so there might be more upside in here than your typical 25 year old. A mid-rotation starter is probably his most reasonable upside projection, but he has a bit more upside than your typical “mid-rotation upside” starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.48/1.35/54 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.28/150 in 150 IP
596) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 22.7 – Cartaya’s hit tool issues came to the forefront at Double-A with a .189 BA and 29%/9.2% K%/BB% in 93 games. A lot of that was back luck with a .216 BABIP, but it certainly wasn’t all bad luck. He was only 21 years old in the upper minors, so I would expect improvement in the future, but the hit tool is definitely a risk. The power isn’t a risk as the 6’3”, 220 slugger smacked 19 homers with a 31.6% GB%. Cartaya didn’t have the elite fantasy catcher explosion that we were hoping for in 2023, but his big power, low BA profile remains intact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/26/72/.237/.321/.462/1
597) Thayron Liranzo LAD, C, 20.9 – Liranzo was one of the top breakout catcher prospects in 2023 on the back of at least double plus power. He slashed .272/.400/.562 with 24 homers and a 26.8%/16.7% K%/BB% in 94 games at Single-A. He’s a big boy at a thick 6’3” and he hits the ball tremendously hard from both sides of the plate (he’s better as a lefty). He’s not a great defensive catcher, the hit tool is still a risk, and LA is stacked at catcher up and down their organization, but Liranzo still seems underrated and underhyped to me considering the destruction he just laid in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/28/81/.242/.328/.464/3
598) Jake Rogers DET, C, 28.11- Rogers took a tenuous hold on Detroit’s starting catcher job in 2023. He was a well above average defensive catcher and a nearly average hitter with a 97 wRC+. He did it with huge power, cranking 21 homers with a 95.5 MPH FB/LD EV, 12% Barrel% and 14.7 degree launch in 107 games. The problem is that his hit tool is in the major danger zone with a 32.3%/7.7% K%/BB% and .221 BA. It was much worse last year with a 36.2% K%, so there might be just as good of a chance it regress closer to that than there is it takes another step forward. 2024 Projection: 45/23/56/.223/.294/.432/1
599) DJ LeMahieu NYY, 1B/3B, 35.9 – LeMahieu’s decline continued with a career worst .243 BA, 22.2% K%, .322 xwOBA, and 25.6 ft/sec sprint. If he takes another step back at 35 years old, he won’t really be a usable fantasy player, but he still hit the ball relatively hard (89.6 MPH) with above average whiff rates (19.7% whiff%), so he’s not completely cooked yet assuming no further decline. 2024 Projection: 72/14/59/.260/.344/.385/3
600) Taijuan Walker PHI, RHP, 31.8 – Walker mixed up his pitch mix this year, throwing the splitter, cutter and sinker more, while throwing the 4-seamer and slider less, and it didn’t really work with a 4.38 ERA and 18.8%/9.7% K%/BB% in 172.2 IP. The velocity was down to career low levels with a 92.9 MPH 4-seamer, and the 9.1% K-BB% was essentially a career low. He needs to keep tinkering, because this clearly wasn’t the answer. 2024 Projection: 10/4.30/1.30/137 in 160 IP
601) JP Sears OAK, LHP, 28.1 – Oakland plays in the type of pitcher’s park (for now) where back end starters can play up to 3/4 types, and that is the hope for Sears. He had a decent year in 2023 with a 4.53 ERA and 21.9%/7.2% K%/BB% in 172.1 IP. The stuff is also decent with a 93.1 MPH 4-seamer and 3 mediocre secondaries in his sweeper, changeup, and slider. The control is above average and his quality of contact metrics are below average. It all adds up to a mediocre starter, but we’ve seen mediocre starters in Oakland put up relevant fantasy seasons even in a shallow league (Cole Irvin, Paul Blackburn and more). 2024 Projection: 7/4.28/1.25/156 in 165 IP
602) Steven Matz STL, LHP, 32.10 – Matz’ season ended in August with a lat strain, but he was pitching well prior to that, and he should be healthy for 2024. He put up a 3.86 ERA with a 21.8%/7.1% K%/BB% in 105 IP. The stuff was good led by a plus 94.1 MPH sinker that notched a 24.7% whiff%. The 25.3% whiff% overall was slightly above average. It’s slightly above average almost everywhere you look other than health. If healthy, the talent is there to be an average to above average pitcher, but health has always been the question with him. 2024 Projection: 7/4.03/1.30/124 in 130 IP
603) Dane Dunning TEX, RHP, 29.3 – Don’t get roped in by Dunning’s 3.70 ERA in 172.2 IP. He 4.48 xERA is much closer to his true talent level with a 19.4%/7.6% K%/BB%, and he was much worse in the 2nd half with a 4.80 ERA in his final 86.1 IP. He also got knocked around in the postseason. 2024 Projection: 9/4.23/1.32/130 in 150 IP
604) Ross Stripling OAK, RHP, 34.4 – Stripling struggled is SF’s no role system (the only roles are that there are no roles) with a 5.36 ERA in 89 IP getting jerked around every which way, so he’s in a much better spot in Oakland now. The control was still elite with a 4.2% BB% and the velocity was normal with at 92.5 MPH, so I think he has a decent shot at pitching closer to his career 3.96 ERA now that he will just be left alone and allowed to get into a rhythm. 2024 Projection: 7/4.19/1.28/120 in 140 IP
605) Jose Urquidy HOU, RHP, 28.11 – Urquidy seems to be in a 5th starter battle with France, and due to Urquidy’s superior track record, I give the edge to him. He’s not going to hold a rotation spot down for long regardless though if he doesn’t bounce back. He had a terrible 2023 with a 5.29 ERA and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB% in 63 IP. He missed all of May, June, and July with a shoulder injury. His control dropped off a cliff with a 3.5 percentage point rise in walk rate, and he doesn’t have the type of stuff that can survive below average control. The velocity was still solid at 93.1 MPH, and his secondaries were missing bats with a 25% whiff% overall, so 2023 seemed like just a worst case scenario season. There is definitely bounce back potential here. 2024 Projection: 5/4.21/1.31/80 in 100 IP Update: Out with a forearm strain that they don’t think it serious
606) Aaron Ashby MIL, LHP, 25.10 – Ashby underwent shoulder surgery in April 2023 which knocked out his entire 2023 season, although he was able to make a few rehab appearances in the minors in September, so the hope is that he will be fully healthy for 2024. He certainly wasn’t fully healthy in those rehab outings as he looked terrible and the stuff was way down with a 92.5 MPH fastball. They announced they view him as a starter long term, and looking at their rotation, yea, I get it. It’s hard to guess what guys are going to look like post major arm injury, or if they will be able to stay healthy. At peak, he threw a mid to upper 90’s sinker with a 2 plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He was really, really exciting, but we’ll see if he can get back to that, and he didn’t look great in spring. 2024 Projection: 4/4.35/1.35/80 in 80 IP
607) Gary Sanchez MIL, C, 31.4 – Sanchez has actually been a pretty solid defensive catcher these last few years, and we all know he has thunder in his bat. He walloped 19 homers in just 75 games with a 15.4% Barrel%, 96.2 MPH FB/LD EV, and 16.5 degree launch. It was good for a solidly above average .329 wOBA (he’s underperformed his xwOBA’s in his career, so I think wOBA is more accurate in his case). There are hit tool issues with a .217 BA, but his 27.2% whiff% was actually a career best, and his 25.1% K% was a 6 year best. Signing with Milwaukee, he should be able to come close to an average catchers workload between DH and backup catcher. 2024 Projection: 41/19/51/.225/.301/.445/0
608) Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – The ingredients seem to be in here for a legit breakout, which is obviously part of the reason LA traded for him. Sweeney has a plus plate approach (19.1%/13.8% K%/BB%), good raw power at 6’2”, 212 pounds, low groundball rates (32.9% GB%), and while he’s not a burner, he clearly has some base stealing skills (20 steals). He’s also a decent defensive SS. It was good for a 118 wRC+ in 100 games at Double-A. He hasn’t been able to fully tap into his raw power yet with only 13 homers and a very low hard hit rate. The lack of squaring up the baseball has also led to a mediocre BA (.252 BA). He also struggled mightily vs lefties with a .560 OPS. The Dodgers organizational SS depth is surprisingly weak right now, so Sweeney immediately becomes their 2nd best long term SS option behind Gavin Lux. He might never be anything but a below average MLB hitter, but the move to LA gives him both a developmental and opportunity bump. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/62/.248/.324/.429/11
609) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Beavers has yet to show the level of power he displayed in college on the pro level with only 11 homers and a weak 22.2% Hard Hit% in 119 games split between High-A and Double-A, but everything else in his profile looks strong with a mature plate approach, solid contact rates, and speed. He slashed .288/.383/.467 with 27 steals and a 22.1%/13.3% K%/BB%. He performed even better at Double-A (150 wRC+) than he did at High-A (125 wRC+). There is definitely more raw power in the tank at 6’4”, 206 pounds, so if he can find a way to tap into it more, he could be trouble. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/.260/.328/.421/16
610) Hunter Goodman COL, 1B/OF, 24.6 – One of the most attractive things about Goodman was his potential catcher eligibility, but it doesn’t seem like Colorado has any intention of using him behind the plate, so he’s going to be stuck fighting it out with Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia, and probably others for 1B/DH/CO reps. The negative defensive value is an issue, especially when he’s had a poor plate approach throughout his career with a 31.2%/6.5% K%/BB% in his 77 PA MLB debut. There is no denying his massive power with 34 homers in 106 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but his lack of supporting skills puts him in flier territory only right now. 2024 Projection: 38/13/45/.225/.296/.432/1 Prime Projection: 55/18/67/.242/.310/.449/2
611) Connor Norby BAL, 2B/OF, 23.10 – Norby doesn’t hit the ball hard (86.6 MPH EV), he doesn’t have a particularly great plate approach (21.6%/9.0% K%/BB%), he’s not particularly fast (10 steals in 138 games), he’s not a particularly good defensive player, he’s blocked in a stacked organization, and he’s small at 5’9”. I’m not gonna lie, that is a lot of deficiencies to overcome, and I just don’t see how he could be a coveted fantasy prospect with that profile. He’s produced throughout his minor league career, and that continued last year with a 109 wRC+ at Triple-A, so I certainly think he can be a solid hitter if given the chance, but there are too many things going against him for me to value him highly. 2024 Projection: 14/3/11/.246/.312/.405/1 Prime Projection: 75/21/75/.262/.328/.436/10
612) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Foscue is a safety over upside bat who is knocking on the door of the bigs, but unfortunately the bigs are knocking back because he has no where to play with Texas, and his glove isn’t good enough to force the issue even if there was a slightly better path to playing time. He showed an elite plate approach with elite contact rates at Triple-A with a 12.4%/15.1% K%/BB% in 122 games. It was good for a 113 wRC+. He also hit 18 homers with 14 steals, but he doesn’t hit the ball hard (87.3 MPH EV) and he’s not that fast, so the power/speed numbers are going to be moderate at best on the MLB level. Buying an older prospect without big upside and without a path to playing time isn’t my favorite thing to do, but the guy looks like an MLB hitter to me in some way shape or form. 2024 Projection: 15/3/12/.249/.323/.398/1 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.268/.337/.438/6
613) Marco Raya MIN, RHP, 21.8 – Raya doesn’t strike a physical presence on the mound at a relatively thin 6’0″, but his loud stuff does the talking for him. He fires a mid 90’s fastball to go along with 2 crisp breaking balls (slider/curve), and a changeup that has good diving action. It’s potentially 3 plus pitches, and I wouldn’t completely dismiss the changeup either. He also doesn’t have any control/command issues, and that could end up plus as well. He dominated the lower minors with a 2.94 ERA and 29.5%/6.1% K%/BB% in 33.2 IP, before slowing down at Double-A with a 5.28 ERA and 20.8%/11.2% K%/BB% in 29 IP, but he found his stride by the end of the year with only 1 earned in his final 16 IP. He pitched in mainly 3-4 inning outings and has a career high of 65 IP, so he still has a lot to prove in terms of building innings and maintaining his stuff over longer outings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.25/156 in 150 IP
614) Chayce McDermott BAL, RHP, 25.6 – McDermott was a favorite of mine in his FYPD class due to his size (6’3”, 197 pounds), double plus athleticism and very good stuff, and while he still exhibits all of those traits, his control never took a step forward. Even with below average control, he still managed to dominate the upper minors with a 3.10 ERA and 30.9%/13.8% K%/BB% in 119 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. He throws a diverse pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change) with the slider as his best secondary. If his fastball sat 95+ MPH, and/or if he wasn’t already 25 years old, I would probably overlook the major control issues completely, but it “only” sits 93-94, which is still good. He has the high K rates and the “looking the part” aspect to get excited for him, but his control issues push his upside more into the high K, mid rotation starter bucket. 2024 Projection: 2/4.34/1.38/46 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.32/170 in 160 IP
615) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 24.9 – Warren has a video game slider that is an at least plus pitch and is very easy to get excited about, but that is just about the only thing that is standout in his profile. He throws 6 pitches (4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, slider, change, curve) that he is still tinkering with to find the best way to deploy them. The fastball sits around 94 MPH and the control is below average. The numbers were also mediocre at Triple-A with a 3.61 ERA and 25.6%/10.9% K%/BB% in 99.2 IP. He was lights out at the end of the season with a 1.36 ERA and 45/14 K/BB in 39.2 IP, so maybe he figured something out, but I think a #3/4 type starter is his most reasonable upside, and he very well may end up in the bullpen. 2024 Projection: 2/4.37/1.37/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.32/146 in 150 IP
616) Jefferson Rojas CHW, 2B/SS, 18.11 – Rojas was a barely 18 year old in full season ball and he more than held his own, slashing .268/.345/.404 with 7 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.9%/7.5% K%/BB% in 70 games at Single-A. His tools don’t necessarily jump out at you at 5’10”, but he’s the type to do everything pretty well on a baseball field (hit, power, speed, defense, arm). Taking into account his excellent age to level production (119 wRC+), you can probably tack on a tick more upside to project out a potentially above average across the board player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/21/76/.276/.338/.441/15
617) Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 22.5 – I don’t know how we can trust the Angels to develop this kind of high risk, high reward prospect when so so many of them have stalled out at all levels of their system. Paris put up a super fun fantasy line at Double-A with 14 homers and 44 steals in 113 games, but it came with a 29.4% K%, and then right on cue it jumped to 37% with a .100 BA in 46 MLB PA. He’s an OBP machine with a 17.1% BB%, he has double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, and he has average to above average power potential, but are we really betting on LA being the team to get his hit tool to a playable level? Even in Tampa, these guys sometimes don’t really start contributing until their mid to late 20’s. I have no problem taking a shot on him, but I think you have to assume it’s not going to work out, and if it does, it might take 3-5 years when he’s probably long off your roster. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/18/64/.227/.318/.413/24
618) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez continues to sit in the breakout waiting room for his 3rd straight year. I know it’s getting frustrating, but all of the same ingredients are there that made him so exciting in previous years. He had a very good 21.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in 120 games at High-A, and he also stole 21 bags. He just needs to finally start tacking on mass to his skinny 6’3” frame, because only 7 homers with a 78 wRC+ is not going to get the job done. He’s too young to give up on such tantalizing tools, but 2024 is the last year he gets to live on “potential.” We need to see some real production. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/18/72/.252/.320/.423/21
619) Kala’i Rosario MIN, OF, 21.9 – Rosario is a wide and thick 6’0” with at least plus power from a quick and relatively short righty swing. He smacked 21 homers in 118 games at High-A and then smacked 7 homers in 25 games in the AFL. The power comes with a high risk hit tool with a 31.7% K% in 2021 in rookie ball, a 32.5% K% in 2022 at Single-A, and a 29.6% K% in 2023 at High-A. He walked at a career best by far rate of 14.2%, and like I mentioned, the swing is relatively quick and short, so I think the hit tool has a chance to reach a good enough level to let the power shine. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/28/88/.239/.322/.476/4
620) Waner Luciano HOU, 3B, 19.3 – Luciano backed up a strong pro debut in the DSL (123 wRC+ in 56 games) with an even more impressive season in stateside rookie ball with 10 homers and a 18.6%/11.3% K%/BB% in 45 games. He has an athletic, powerful, and explosive righty swing that is very easy to dream on. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, he has above average contact rates, and he doesn’t have any groundball issues or extreme flyball rates. Those are the ingredients you look for when projecting out a complete all around hitter. He’s underrated and makes for a great target in a deeper league. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/25/80/.263/.334/.470/8
621) Luis Baez HOU, OF, 20.3 – Baez mashed in the DSL in 2022 with 9 homers in 58 games, and he mashed in stateside rookie ball in 2023 with 7 homers in 17 games, but he was one year older than optimal at each level, and his production dropped off when he went to the age appropriate Single-A with only 4 homers and a 26.8% K% in 41 games. He’s a strong kid at 6’1”, 205 pounds with plus power, and he signed for $1.3 million in the 2022 international signing period, so there is obviously real talent here. Considering the age, hit tool questions, and lack of speed, I don’t want to go too crazy for him, but there is potential for him to become a hyped power hitting prospect down the line. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/27/86/.254/.328/.468/2
622) Josue Briceno DET, C/1B, 19.6 – I was the first one on the first Josue hype train (Josue De Paula), so let me welcome you onto the 2nd Josue hype train as well. Meet, Josue Briceno. All 6’4”, at least 200 pounds of him. He has the type of jawline that could cut glass. And he used that big ole noggin of his to crack 7 homers in 44 games in rookie ball. He’s not just a “Josue see ball, Josue hit ball” type either, he has a refined plate approach with a 14.1%/11.6% K%/BB%. It all led to a 143 wRC+. He then put the cherry on top of his season at Single-A where he put up a 132 wRC+ with a 16.7%/14.6% K%/BB% in 11 games. This is the type of plus power, plus plate approach player to get very excited about. He’s a C/1B and he is more or less already physically maxed out, so he’s not the perfect prospect, but I’m betting on that big bat. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/26/79/.262/.335/.475/3
623) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Duno was the 2nd best catcher in last year’s international class behind Ethan Salas, and while he didn’t get the chance to prove it at Single-A like Salas did, he more than handled his business in the DSL. He slashed .303/.451/.493 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 21%/19.5% K%/BB% in 45 games. It was good for a 153 wRC+. He’s a big, strong kid at 6’2”, 210 pounds with a powerful and relatively athletic (for a catcher) righty swing. He’s definitely a candidate to be an elite power hitting catcher prospect by 2025-26. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 72/27/78/.254/.338/.471/5
624) Juan Brito CLE, 2B/3B, 22.6 – Brito has put up impressive offensive numbers every year of his pro career since 2019, and that continued in the upper minors, slashing .276/.373/.444 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.8%/12.8% K%/BB% in 87 games at Double-A. It was good for a 125 wRC+, and he put up a 115 wRC+ in 5 games at AAA too. He’s not a huge guy, but he’s not small either at 5’11” 202 pounds, and he has a smooth lefty swing that is made for lift (35.2% GB%). He hits righty too, but not nearly as well (.649 OPS). Without a ton of speed, the upside isn’t huge, but he has plus hit, a mature plate approach, and developing power that he will be able to get the most of, so there is certainly potential for him to make a legit fantasy impact. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/18/68/.276/.348/.427/9
625) Jorbit Vivas NYY, 2B, 23.1 – The Yankees were on the hunt for plus contact hitters, and after acquiring the big fish (Soto) and the medium fish (Verdugo), they went out and got their small fish (Vivas). He slashed .280/.391/.436 with 12 homers, 21 steals, and a 10.6%/11.0% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A. He struggled when he got the call to Triple-A (63 wRC+ in 26 games), but he still had a strong 15.7%/12.4% K%/BB%. He doesn’t hit the ball hard (84.7 MPH at Triple-A), he’s not a particularly good defensive player and he’s not a burner, so the upside isn’t very high and he’ll have to fight for playing time, but there is room in the game for this type of profile (see Brendan Donovan). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/14/61/.281/.348/.414/13
626) James Triantos CHC, 2B, 21.2 – If Triantos was a good defensive player, I would go higher on him, but Chicago is already prepping him for a Christopher Morel like, poor defensive player utility role. 2B, 3B, OF, 1B are all being tried out. It hurts his value, but the bat is good enough to not drop him too far. He has an at least plus hit tool with a 10.6% K% and .285 BA in 80 games at High-A, a .333 BA in 3 games at Double-A, and a .417 BA in 22 games in the AFL. He’s not a burner, but it looks like he’s a good base stealer (25 for 30 on the bases). He hit only 7 homers in 105 games, but he has more raw juice in his bat than that. He’s a hit tool driven, solid across the board contributor with no real defensive home. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/15/61/.282/.347/.423/15
627) Austin Charles KCR, 3B/SS, 20.4 – Charles is a 6’4”, 215 pound ball of clay with a potentially plus power/speed combo. His righty swing is controlled, athletic, and vicious, but he’s far from a finished product. He slashed .230/.290/.356 with 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 24.7%/7.4% K%/BB% in 69 games at Single-A. Considering he doesn’t have any groundball issues (36% GB%), and the strikeout rate wasn’t too bad, he’s definitely a great upside bet to make at his current very reasonable price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/21/76/.246/.314/.433/19
628) Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 19.11 – Martin was only recently turned into a full time starter, and he’s taken to it well with a 2.04 ERA and 30.2%/9.4% K%/BB% in 39.2 IP at Single-A. Sometimes I think I could put up an under 3 ERA with 30% K rates in the lower minors if the Dodgers trained me for a year 😉 … He fires a mid 90’s fastball with a potentially plus slider, solid curve and developing changeup. He’s not a big guy at 6’0”, 170 pounds, but he has a quick arm with an athletic delivery. There is a long way to go, but the upside is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.78/1.27/157 in 150 IP
629) Henry Lalane NYY, LHP, 19.11 – Rookie ball pitchers aren’t my favorite to go after, but if you are going to go after one, a 6’7”, 211 pound lefty with good stuff and good numbers isn’t a bad choice. Lalane put up a 36.6%/4.5% K%/BB% in 21.2 IP in stateside rookie ball with 3 potentially plus pitches (fastball, breaking ball, changeup). He only reached 4 IP in one outing, and the fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, so there is a long way to go, but if you squint hard enough, you can see a CC Sabathia starter pack here. Here’s to hoping he can pack on 130 pounds of pure Captain Crunch to fulfill his destiny. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 11/3.83/1.24/175 in 160 IP
630) Braxton Ashcraft PIT, RHP, 24.6 – The 6’5”, 195 pound Ashcraft returned from Tommy John surgery and looked dominant all the way through Double-A where he put up a pitching line of 1.35/0.95/29.1%/6.3% in 20 IP. The stuff backs up the results with a mid 90’s fastball, a beautiful plus curve, and a damn good cutter. He also showed plus control with a 5.2% BB% in 52.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He pitched in mostly 3 inning outings and 53 IP is his career high, so it’s a major question if he can handle a full starter’s workload at already 24 years old, but he’s legitimately exciting. 2024 Projection: 2/4.25/1.30/36 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.85/1.21/150 in 145 IP
631) Enrique Bradfield BAL, OF, 22.4 – If Willie Mays Hayes were a real person, he would be Enrique Bradfield. Selected 17th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Bradfield is an absolute terror on the bases with 37 steals in 62 games at Vandy. He then literally stole a base a game in pro ball with 25 steals in 25 games at mostly Single-A. He has a legit shot of stealing over 50 bags with the new rules, and can maybe even approach Esteury Ruiz levels, but like Ruiz, the other parts of his hitting profile leave something to be desired. He has well below average power and the hit tool really isn’t that great either. He had a .279 BA this year in college and he hit 0 homers in his pro debut with the wood bats (he also had 0 homers in 11 games in the wood bat Cape League in 2022). He’s purely a speed play, but that speed can carry your fantasy team. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/8/49/.263/.331/.378/41
632) Benny Montgomery COL, OF, 21.7 – The uber talented 6’4”, 200 pound Montgomery is doing just enough to stay interesting with 10 homers, 18 steals, and a 95 wRC+ in 109 games at High-A, but he’s still mostly a project right now with a 27.2% K% and 62.6% GB%. Pounding the ball into the ground with a high strikeout rate is not a recipe for success, and he needs to make major strides in both areas to really get excited about him. He’s still young, and the plus raw power/speed combo which made him the 8th overall pick in the draft in 2021 is still there, so we’ll let him hangout in the breakout waiting room for at least another season. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/.252/.321/.423/18
633) Chase Davis STL, OF, 22.4 – Selected 21st overall, Davis went full Jacob Berry on us in his pro debut, and we saw Berry go from bad to worse in 2023. Davis’ pro debut was actually even worse than Berry’s with 0 homers, a 26% K% and .212 BA in 36 games at Single-A. It was good for a below average 91 wRC+ (Berry had a 118 wRC+). The most concerning thing was the lack of power with an 84.9 MPH EV. He also struggled to hit for power in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022 with 0 homers and a .629 OPS in 15 games. Those are scary numbers for a guy you are drafting for basically only his power. If you don’t want to put so much weight on the pro debut, Davis had a damn exciting junior year that got everyone excited going into the draft. He was a lefty power hitting beast who is a smooth operator in the box. I can honestly watch him crush homers all day. He cracked 21 homers in 57 Pac12 games this year. He’s not a particularly huge guy at 6’1”, but he’s a muscled up 216 pounds and the EV’s were legit in college. The swing is also very athletic, and he improved his hit tool this year (.362 BA with a 40/43 K/BB) after struggling with swing and miss in the past, but the struggles in pro ball show he still has a long way to go there too. I understand if you want to put more weight on the larger sample college production, but that would have been a mistake with Jacob Berry, and Davis seems to be headed down that same path. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/22/78/.242/.321/.437/7
634) Mac Horvath BAL, 2B/3B/OF, 22.8 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Horvath is a high risk, high reward college bat with a big power/speed combo and hit tool issues. He’s a great athlete at a strong 6’1”, 195 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing. He cracked 24 homers with 25 steals in 60 games in the ACC, and then he obliterated pro ball with a 323 wRC+ in 3 games in rookie ball, 160 wRC+ in 14 games at Single-A, and 184 wRC+ in 5 games at High-A. It was good for 5 homers and 14 steals in 22 games overall. He’s on the older side, the 26.3% K% shows the hit tool risk, and Baltimore is stacked, so the path to playing time isn’t clear, but he’s the type of prospect you buy when you want big upside from someone who isn’t a teenager. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/23/76/.237/.318/.448/18
635) Yohandy Morales WAS, 3B, 22.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Morales is a big man at an athletic 6’4”, 225 pounds with a big righty hack that jacked 20 homers in 61 ACC games. The problem is, he didn’t hit a single homer in his 182 PA pro debut, and he also didn’t hit a single homer in 65 PA in the wood bat cape cod league in 2021. His strikeout rates were relatively high throughout his college career, and he’s not a big threat on the bases, so I’m a little scared of buying a power prospect who hasn’t hit for power with wood bats. Having said that, his pro debut was still quite good with a .349 BA and .917 OPS at mostly Single-A and High-A, and considering his size and how hard he hits the ball, there has to be much more homer power coming than he’s showed with wood bats so far. He also has a clear path to playing time with only Nick Senzel standing in his way at 3B. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/23/79/.250/.325/.450/5
636) George Wolkow CHW, OF, 18.3 – Selected 209th overall, Wolkow screams upside everywhere you look. He’s 6’7”, 225 pounds with double plus power potential and he’s also an above average runner. That is James Wood type territory we are talking about. He’s super young for his class, and despite getting drafted so late, he landed a $1 million signing bonus. Like Wood, there is swing and miss concerns with a 33.3% K% in his 13 game pro debut, but it came with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a .392 OBP. The ingredients are here to truly explode. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/27/84/.242/.329/.464/11
637) Cooper Pratt MIL, SS, 19.7 – Selected 182nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Pratt most certainly looks the part at an athletic 6’4”, 195 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing. He had a strong pro debut in rookie ball, slashing .356/.426/.444 with 0 homers, 4 steals, and a 20.4%/9.3% K%/BB% in 12 games. A lot of that was good BABIP luck, but he still showed a good feel to hit and no groundball issues (30.3% GB%). He has above average speed and should have at least plus power at peak, so that is a strong foundation to set, although it was only in 12 games, the K/BB numbers weren’t particularly great, he’s a bit old for his high school class, and he still needs to prove it against advanced competition. He’s already a buzzy name in FYPD circles, but considering how late he got drafted, he should still go for good value in most drafts, and he definitely has the upside to pay off. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.253/.327/.451/10
638) Welbyn Francisca CLE, SS, 17.10 – Francisca couldn’t maintain his molten hot start in the DSL which put all the prospect-heads in a tizzy (1.118 OPS in his first 18 games vs. .706 OPS in his final 23 games), but it was still a great year overall, slashing .316/.419/.500 with 3 homers, 11 steals (in 18 attempts), and a 19.8%/13.4% K%/BB% in 40 games. He has such a natural swing and great feel to hit from both sides of the plate, to go along with plus speed and sneaky pop. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/16/63/.275/.341/.418/21
639) Josh Knoth MIL, RHP, 18.8 – Selected 33rd overall, the 6’1”, 190 pound Knoth throws two high spin, devastating breaking balls in his slider and curve. He combines that with a fastball that has ticked up into the mid 90’s and a developing changeup. He also commands his entire arsenal very well. He’s still only 18 years old and I really like Milwaukee’s pitching development. He’s the type of pitcher I would hope falls in first year player drafts to scoop up at a great price. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 11/3.72/1.26/185 in 170 IP
640) Zander Mueth PIT, RHP, 18.8 – Mueth was selected 67th overall in the 2023 Draft and signed for an over slot $1.8 million deal. I immediately fell in love after watching every video of him I could find. He’s 6’6”, 205 pounds with an athletic, deceptive, and funky righty delivery that he uses to throw filthy stuff. The fastball sits mid 90’s and the secondaries (slider, change) both have plus potential. He’s also young for the draft class. He needs to improve his control/command and more refinement is needed all around, but I’m very giddy about his upside. He’s going to be a major later round FYPD target for me. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.28/190 in 170 IP
641) Emil Morales LAD, SS, 17.6 – When taking a shot on raw international prospects, the team they sign with is a big deal. There is so much development that is needed, and I trust the teams with a long track record of development successes. All of that to say, the Dodgers signing Morales give him a bump in my book. And even without the Dodgers, his physicality in the box stands out immediately. He is a grown man at 6’3”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that can punish a baseball. He combines that with a mature plate approach and a good feel to hit. It certainly looks like he can be a middle of the order beast, and he has the right team to get it out of him. He’s a definite target. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/28/91/.263/.346/.488/7
642) Kendall George LAD, OF, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, George is a pure speed play. He has 80 grade speed with legitimately elite run times. He also makes a ton of contact and is a plus defensive centerfielder. That profile will play on the major league level, and it certainly played in the lower minors, slashing .370/.458/.420 with 0 homers, 17 steals, and a 20/17 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has below average power with extremely high groundball rates, and while it does project to tick up from here, it’s not expected to be a major part of his game. He’s the high school version of Enrique Bradfield. . ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/10/52/.284/.348/.390/41
643) Ty Floyd CIN, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 38th overall, the 6’2”, 200 pound Floyd has a plus to double plus mid 90’s fastball that he leans on heavily. It led to a 4.35 ERA with a 31% K% in 91 IP. There are more than a few heavy fastball usage pitchers who are doing well in the majors right now, but those guys generally have plus control and/or better secondaries than Floyd. Floyd’s control is below average with a 9.6% BB%, but it was improving as the year went on, and his slider, curve and change are about average at best. If the secondaries and/or control take a step forward, there is very real upside here, and I don’t mind targeting him at all as a later round arm if you focus on offense with your earlier picks. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/165 in 160 IP
644) Alex Clemmey CLE, LHP, 18.8 – Selected 58th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Clemmey is a high risk, high reward high school arm who landed in a perfect organization. He’s a 6’6”, 205 pound lefty with fire stuff led by a mid 90’s fastball and a filthy breaking ball. He also has a developing changeup. He still needs plenty of refinement and the control is below average, so he could ultimately land in the bullpen, but if you want to shoot for the moon, Clemmey is your guy. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.79/1.32/183 in 160 IP
645) Colin Houck NYM, SS, 19.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Houck is an excellent all around athlete who was also a heavily recruited star quarterback in high school. He’s not just raw tools though, he also has a good feel to hit with a mature approach at the plate. His value held serve in his pro debut with a dead average 100 wRC+, 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 22.2%/19.4% K%/BB% in 9 games. The power isn’t plus quite yet, and while he’s fast, he’s not lightning fast, so it all might project to an above average across the board profile. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/22/79/.272/.338/.453/14
646) Jose Perdomo ATL, SS, 17.6 – Perdomo is expected to land the highest signing bonus in the class at over $5 million. He has a very quick, simple, and controlled righty swing that makes a ton of contact. His size doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen at 5’11”, and he doesn’t really have that visual explosion I like going after, but he hits the ball hard and has plus speed. When going after risky international prospects, I lean towards prototypical size first, so I hesitate to really reach for Perdomo, but his combo of hit, power, speed, and signing bonus is hard to deny. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 84/20/77/.271/.337/.441/24
647) Fernando Cruz CHC, SS, 17.5 – Starlin Castro is Fernando Cruz’ cousin, which doesn’t necessarily give me the warm and fuzzies with Castro’s relatively disappointing career. But “disappointing” is relative as he racked up 22 WAR in his 12 year MLB career. Not a bad outcome at all. As for the 6’0”, 180 pound Cruz, his tools jump out immediately with a chiseled and athletic frame. The swing and hit tool isn’t as refined as Perdomo’s, but it looks like it has more upside to me. There is definitely plus power potential in here and he also has plus speed. Tack on the baseball bloodlines, and Cruz makes for a very enticing target. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 78/23/81/.261/.328/.447/22
648) Michael Taylor PIT, OF, 33.0 – Taylor landed the starting CF job in Pitt. The hit tool and plate approach are rough, but he hits it hard and he’s fast, which gives him fantasy appeal. 2024 Projection: 55/15/55/.240/.295/.400/14
649) Jorge Mateo BAL, SS, 28.10 – Mateo was one of my top sells last off-season, writing in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “Mateo is one my top sells this off-season … Baltimore’s stacked minor league system is breathing down his neck with Gunnar Henderson, Connor Norby, and Jordan Westburg ready to stake their rightful claim to the infield. Mateo was an excellent defensive SS last year, but I don’t think it will be enough for him to hold down the starting job. I think he’ll be a super utility player by the 2nd half of the season.” … and that is exactly how it played it out with Mateo turning into a part time player by July. His wRC+ tanked to 67 and his .289 xwOBA was well below average. He got off to a great start in April (which I was admittingly buying into), and he ended up with 32 steals in just 350 PA. If he were in a weaker organization, they might have let him Esteury Ruiz it with an elite 30.1 ft/sec sprint, 23.4% K%, and 88.4 MPH EV, but Baltimore is the opposite of a weaker organization, so like I expected last off-season, he lost his job to better players. 2024 Projection: 36/7/25/.235/.288/.375/23
650) Edward Olivares PIT, OF, 28.1 – Olivares has a very intriguing fantasy bat with above average barrel rates (7.9%), above average contact rates (16.6% K%) and plus speed (28.6 ft/sec sprint), but his poor defense prevents him from locking in a full time job. Even in Pitt, he’s looking like a strong side of a platoon bat. 2024 Projection: 51/13/47/.268/.322/.432/12
651) Matt Vierling DET, 3B/OF, 27.6 – Vierling has double plus speed with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint, but he’s a terrible base stealer, going 6 for 12 in 2023. I think I could have put up a better than 50% success rate with the new rules this year, and I’m pretty sure my sprint speed is like 11.3 ft/sec on a good day. The lack of baserunning prowess seriously caps his upside because he’s also not a homerun hitter with a 9.1 degree launch and 10 homers in 134 games, despite hitting the ball hard with an 89.1 MPH EV. He’s projected for a super utility type role. 2024 Projection: 61/13/54/.266/.332/.406/8
652) David Peterson NYM, LHP, 28.7 – Peterson underwent hip surgery in November which will likely keep him out until May/June. He seems to be settling in as a back end starter, but the strikeout upside is there to remain interesting for fantasy. He put up a 5.03 ERA with a 26%/10.2% K%/BB% in 111 IP. The 29.2% whiff% is in the near elite range. The stuff isn’t big with a 92.7 MPH fastball and he gets hit hard with a 90 MPH EV against, but he throws a legit 5 pitch mix and 4 of the pitches miss bats (plus the sinker keeps the ball on the ground). The ingredients are there to put up a very good season, but the hip injury throws a monkey wrench into that. 2024 Projection: 5/4.31/1.34/100 in 90 IP
653) Kyle Wright KCR, RHP, 28.6 – After years of struggles, Wright finally broke through in 2022 and learned how to harness his very good stuff, so of course all of that got wiped out with a shoulder injury in 2023. He injured his shoulder in spring and had a terrible season trying to fight through it with missed time, diminished stuff and poor results (6.97 ERA with a 92.7 MPH fastball in 31 IP). He then succumbed to shoulder surgery in October and will miss all of 2024. I guess you can scoop him and hope for a full return to his 2022 version, but he’s not really all that enticing to me in anything but deep leagues. 2024 Projection: OUT
654) Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 26.2 – Ashcraft once again wasn’t able to capitalize on his big stuff with a 4.76 ERA and 17.8%/8.3% K%/BB% in 145.2 IP before getting shutdown in September with a toe injury that required surgery. The stuff also wasn’t quite as big with the cutter down 1.5 MPH to 95.8 MPH. He was better in the 2nd half of the season with a 2.58 ERA in 76.2 IP, but it mostly looks like good luck with a 59/22 K/BB and 4.64 FIP. You don’t ever want to completely give up on a guy with this level of stuff, but considering the extremely low K rates and terrible ballpark, he’s mostly in flier range only now. He’s also liable to end up in the bullpen quicker than you might think if he doesn’t get off to a good start. 2024 Projection: 6/4.35/1.35/119 in 140 IP
655) Jake Gelof LAD, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 60th overall, Gelof has the baseball bloodlines with his older brother, Zack, breaking out in the majors this year. Jake is a thick 6’1”, 200 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is made to hit dingers. He popped 21 homers in 2022 and then followed that up with a 23 homer season in 2023. That continued in pro ball with him cracking 6 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. It might not be truly elite power, but it’s easy plus power. He has below average speed, and there is hit tool risk too which already reared it’s ugly head with a .225 BA and 29.9 K% at Single-A, but we’ve seen the Gelof’s thrive with high K rates (hello, Zack) You are buying the power here, and after getting drafted by the Dodgers, you are also buying the great developmental organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/27/83/.243/.326/.468/6
656) Echedry Vargas TEX, 2B/SS, 19.1 – I love it when the guys I dig deep for in the off-season hit. Here’s what I wrote about Vargas, in part, in the 2023 Top 1,000, ranking him 993rd overall, “He’s not a big singing bonus guy or a huge human being (5’11”, 170), but there is still an exciting set of tools here.” He backed up that DSL breakout this year in stateside rookie, slashing .315/.387/.569 with 11 homers, 17 steals, and a 24.3%/9.5% K%/BB% in 52 games. Everything I wrote about him last year is still true for this year, so he’s not the type to explode to elite prospect status, but the guy keeps on producing. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/19/74/.253/.321/.423/19
657) Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Dana is a strong kid who throws with the football like, at the ear throwing motion that always produces high spin rates. The combination of power and spin created a mid 90’s fastball with a ton of life that lower minors hitters swing right through. He pairs the plus fastball with a potentially plus slider, average curve and a lesser used, developing changeup. He put up a 3.56 ERA with a 31.7%/10.7% K%/BB% in 68.1 IP at mostly High-A. His control is a bit scattershot, he needs to continue to refine his secondaries, and he was shut down in mid July with arm fatigue, so he also needs to prove he can stay healthy with a full workload. There is a long way to go, but he established some strong building blocks towards his potentially impact mid-rotation starter upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.97/1.31/165 in 160 IP
658) Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.7 – Birdsong is a big righty at 6’4”, 215 pounds. He fires a mid 90’s fastball to go along with a plus breaking ball and developing changeup. He dominated the lower minors with a 2.67 ERA and 116/31 K/BB in 77.2 IP, before slowing down at Double-A with a 5.46 ERA (3.75 xFIP) and 31.7%/12.5% K%/BB% in 23 IP. The control needs improvement and he needs a better third pitch, but he was used mostly out of the bullpen in college, and he’s the same age as many of the college starters that got drafted this year, so there should be more improvements coming down the line. There is reliever risk, but the upside is pretty high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/3.88/1.32/158 in 145 IP
659) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 23.10 – Herrera would rank higher on this list if he wasn’t blocked by Willson Contreras (under contract through 2027 at least), and I don’t think St. Louis will be particularly interested in trading him because depth is important and Contreras is getting up there in age. He dominated Triple-A, slashing .297/.451/.500 with 10 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.5%/20% K%/BB% in 83 games, and then he performed well in his cup of coffee in the majors with a 122 wRC+ and 91.3/100.4 MPH AVG/FB EV in 44 PA. He has the ability to be a complete hitter with an average to above average hit/power combo, but he might not get a full time job until 2028 barring trade (Contreras might be the more likely one to get traded) or injury. 2024 Projection: 23/4/18/.251/.328/.403/2 Prime Projection: 72/19/66/.268/.343/.432/6
660) Drew Romo COL, C, 22.7 – Romo blamed his down power season in 2022 (5 homers in 101 games at High-A) on a hand injury, and that proved to be accurate as his power bounced back in 2023 with 13 homers in 95 games at mostly Double-A. The power will likely top out as average at best, but combined with Coors Field, and a good feel to hit (18.4% K%), he’ll very likely be fantasy relevant in the near future even if the upside isn’t very high. He has a plus glove and will be knocking on the door of the majors in 2024. 2024 Projection: 13/2/11/.248/.293/.384/1 Prime Projection: 61/15/65/.266/.327/.412/7
661) Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 18.4 – Guanipa got off to a blistering first month in the DSL, but he couldn’t maintain it and ended up with lackluster numbers, slashing .238/.361/.384 with 4 homers, 20 steals, and a 20.2%/11.1% K%/BB% in 46 games. The low BA and mediocre K rates definitely knock his hit tool grade down a peg, but his power/speed combo is still very enticing (30.9% GB%, so he’ll get the most out of his growing raw power), and it’s not like the hit tool was that terrible. I still love the talent despite the non eye popping numbers. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 79/18/67/.257/.326/.421/28
662) Anthony Gutierrez TEX, OF, 19.4 – Gutierrez had one of those “breakout waiting room” years. He was a favorite upside pick of mine last off-season, and everything I liked about him then, I still like about now, but every year you don’t actually break out, the odds of it happening go down. He put up an underwhelming year at Single-A, slashing .259/.326/.338 with 2 homers, 30 steals, and a 22.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 78 games as an 18 year old. He’s still a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds, so the power should tick up, he’s an excellent athlete, and the plate approach was solid against much older competition. If the power meaningfully ticks up, he can still explode, but he also might Alex Ramirez it for the next year years. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/17/71/.264/.327/.425/22
663) Brandon Barriera TOR, LHP, 20.1 – Barriera pitched just 20.1 innings all year due to a variety of arm injuries. A shoulder injury delayed the start of his season until May, an elbow injury knocked him out for almost two months mid-season, and biceps soreness ended his season in late July. He pitched well when on the mound with a 3.98 ERA and 25/9 K/BB at mostly Single-A. The bat missing slider showed double plus potential and the 92.8 MPH fastball plays up. He also mixes in a changeup and sinker. He has easy Top 100 prospect potential if he can stay healthy, but with all of the arm injuries, it’s a question if he can. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.92/1.28/169 in 160 IP
664) Dawal Joseph SEA, SS, 16.11 – The first thing that jumps out about Joseph is an explosive and athletic righty swing at 6’2”, 175 pounds. He’s looking to do damage at the dish. His easy and smooth athleticism looks on par with Leo De Vries, although De Vries is known as the more mature hitter. Joseph is one of the top players in the class with the potential for a plus power/speed combo at peak, and he’s also one of the youngest. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 76/22/78/.253/.324/.442/18
665) Victor Hurtado WAS, OF, 16.10 – Hurtado is a long and lean 6’4”, 180 pounds with a quick and powerful lefty swing that is made for launching baseballs. He’s also known for his good feel to hit. This is the type of profile that can turn into one of those EV hype beasts with eye popping dingers. The hit/power combo can be good enough for elite prospect status at peak if it all comes together, and even if he ends up with hit tool issues, the power is big enough to carry him. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 81/28/89/.262/.341/.481/8
666) AJ Minter ATL, Setup, 30.7 – Minter is next man up in Atlanta and is in the elite setup tier. He put up a 3.76 ERA with a 31.5%/8.1% K%/BB% in 64.2 IP. He racked up 21 holds and 10 saves. The stuff is excellent with 3 at least plus pitches in his 95.8 MPH fastball, cutter, and changeup. He’s not old, he misses bats, he’s on a good team, and the control is solid. He’s a free agent in 2025, so he very likely could land a closer job by next year. 2024 Projection: 4/3.38/1.17/84/9 saves in 65 IP
667) Matt Brash SEA, Setup, 25.10 – Brash’s filthy fastball/slider combo has been the stuff of Twitter legend for a few years now, and he fully blossomed in 2023 with a 3.06 ERA and 34.7%/9.4% K%/BB% in 70.2 IP in a high leverage relief role. His control took a step forward with a career best walk rate, which allowed the stuff to shine. He threw the elite slider 50.4% of the time and it dominated with a .210 xwOBA and 47.8% whiff%. The fastball sat 98.1 MPH and put up a respectable 26.3% whiff%. Andres Munoz is locked into the closer role, but Brash is next man up, and I’m sure he’ll find his way into several saves throughout the season regardless. 2024 Projection: 5/3.18/1.21/89/10 saves in 65 IP Update: An elbow injury popped up for Brash which initially was reported as very serious, but now he’s already resumed throwing, so maybe it is not as bad as it originally seemed. His value holds steady for now
668) John McMillon KCR, Closer Committee, 26.2 – McMillon would be my bet for Kansas City’s closer of the future job, but it might take him a bit to really enter the circle of trust considering he has the least experience, and there is some injury risk. He made his MLB debut in August and was lights out in 4 IP with a 2.25 ERA and 8/0 K/BB before getting shutdown with a forearm strain. He dominated in the minors too with a 2.10 ERA and 91/25 K/BB in 51.1 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. The stuff is no doubt closer stuff with a 98.8 MPH fastball and plus slider that notched a 75% whiff% in his MLB debut. This is basically the prototype for “closer of the future,” but in the present, he definitely has competition for the job, and he’ll be the one that has to prove it first. 2024 Projection: 4/3.63/1.25/78/10 saves in 58 IP
669) Mason Barnett KCR, RHP, 23.5 – Barnett has very good stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and diverse pitch mix (slider, changeup, curve). He pitched very well at High-A for most of the year, and then kept it going when he got the call to Double-A with a 3.58 ERA and 31.4%/8.8% K%/BB% in 32.2 IP. Nothing seems crazy standout when watching him, but he’s not really missing anything either. The fastball has legit zip and all of the secondaries are pretty good. He certainly has mid rotation starter upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.08/1.30/143 in 150 IP
670) Miles Mikolas STL, RHP, 35.7 – Mikolas will give you a ton of innings with 201.1 IP in 2023 and 202.1 IP in 2022, but they aren’t likely to be good innings with a 15.9% K% and 4.78 ERA this year. He had a career worst 90.4 MPH EV against, and he’s firmly in his decline years at 35 years old. He still has elite control with a 4.5% BB%, and the stuff hasn’t dropped off, so I’m assuming this was just a particularly bad year. He should be able to get back to a low 4 ERA with a solid WHIP. 2024 Projection: 10/4.28/1.26/130 in 180 IP
671) Jose Quintana NYM, LHP, 35.2 – A rib injury kept Quintana out until late July, and it now seems like he’s fully entering his crafty lefty back end starter stage that he’s been training his whole life for. He put up a 3.57 ERA with a 18.8%/7.5% K%/BB% in 75.2 IP. The velocity was down a tick to 90.4 MPH on the sinker. At 35 years old, I’m assuming this is who is now, but he has the skills to put up relevant fantasy seasons even if the big strikeout rates aren’t there. 2024 Projection: 9/3.97/1.31/128 in 150 IP
672) Domingo German PIT, RHP, 31.8 – German’s season ended on July 31st when the Yanks put him on the restricted list for inpatient alcohol abuse treatment. Pitt was willing to take a shot on him, which is a prefect situation for him because there are plenty of rotation spots to win. He was in the midst of a solid season with a 4.56 ERA (4.04 xFIP) and 25.7%/7.7% K%/BB% in 108.2 IP. He leads with a double plus curve that he throws 40.9% of the time and notched a 39.3% whiff% with the pitch. His 30.3% whiff% overall is in the elite range. He’s a nice little cheap target right now. 2024 Projection: 7/4.15/1.16/130 in 130 IP
673) Joey Gallo WAS, 1B/OF, 30.4 – Gallo hit .177 with a 42.8% K%, and he still managed to be an above average hitter with a 104 wRC+ and 21 homers in 111 games. His EV bounced back with a 4 year high of 93 MPH and he walks a ton with a 14.5% BB%. Washington is a perfect landing spot for him as it locks him into an at least strong side of a platoon role, and maybe more than that. 2024 Projection: 64/28/66/.188/.311/.442/3
674) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 26.3 – Manoah’s season was such a disaster they ended up shutting him down completely in August and ran a battery of medical tests on him that turned up no structural damage. Even with the clean tests they still shot his arm up with multiple injections, because I guess nobody has any idea what the hell is going on exactly. Their team doctors didn’t even recommend the injections, he made the decision on his own. He put up a 5.87 ERA with a 19%/14.2% K%/BB% in 87.1 IP, and his fastball velocity was down 1.1 MPH to 92.8 MPH. His velocity was way, way down in spring training, which was the first indicator that something wasn’t right. This is a nightmare situation and I don’t think a more serious surgery has been completely ruled out. I get taking a shot on him for his track record and name value, but this doesn’t seem like it’s going to end that well, at least in the near future. Unless he’s free or nearly free, I’m staying away. 2024 Projection: 3/4.45/1.38/65 in 70 IP
675) Mike Clevinger FRA, RHP, 33.3 – The hope of Clevinger returning to his early career form is basically finished. He had another mediocre season in 2023 with a 3.77 ERA and 20%/7.3% K%/BB% in 131.1 IP. It’s a very average-ish profile essentially everywhere you look, and he’s not getting any younger. 2024 Projection: 8/4.10/1.26/120 in 140 IP
676) Patrick Bailey SFG, C, 24.10 – Bailey was drafted 13th overall in the 2020 Draft based on his excellent catcher defense, and he lived up to his scouting report with a 26.9 Fangraphs defensive value which led the league by far. His offense lags far behind though with a 78 wRC+, 7 homers, and a .644 OPS in 97 games. The plate approach is rough with a 28.3%/5.9% K%/BB%, and the power is only average with a 88.7 MPH EV and 10.2 degree launch. It was only his rookie year, but he was never expected to be a truly impact hitter, and he’s in an extreme pitcher’s park, so the offensive ceiling is lacking. 2024 Projection: 47/12/54/.238/.303/.387/1
677) Miguel Amaya CHC, C, 25.1 – Amaya should likely take the starting catcher job away from Yan Gomes in 2024, assuming he’s able to take even a small step forward at 25 years old and Gomes takes a small step back at 36 years old. But even assuming he wins the job at some point, he hasn’t shown enough upside to go any higher than this. He doesn’t hit the ball hard with a 90.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 156 MLB PA, and with a 18.6 degree launch, that is a very, very low BA waiting to happen (.214 with 5 homers in 2023). The contact rates were decent with a 25.6% K%, and he’s made solid contact in his minor league career, so if he can start hitting the ball harder, the other ingredients are there to breakout. 2024 Projection: 35/9/39/.227/.309/.401/0
678) Osleivis Basabe TBR, SS, 23.7 – Basabe wasn’t able to take advantage of his first shot at the majors, putting up a 67 wRC+ with 1 homer, 0 steals, and a 26.6%/6.4% K%/BB% in 94 PA, but it wasn’t a disaster season by any stretch. He proved his skills will translate to Triple-A with a .296 BA, 4 homers, 16 steals, and a 15.5%/7.3% K%/BB% in 94 games. The raw power/speed combo looked good with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint and an 88.4 MPH EV (88.5 MPH at AAA). He’s an extreme groundball hitter (53.1% GB% at AAA), so there isn’t much homer power, but good things happen when you hit it hard, get the bat on the ball, and have speed. Even if Wander stays out, Tampa has other options at SS like Jose Caballero, Taylor Walls, Junior Caminero, and Carson Williams, so Basabe is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time, but I do think he has a profile that can lead to real fantasy value at peak. 2024 Projection: 29/4/22/.258/.313/.391/6 Prime Projection: 79/13/60/.277/.328/.412/16
679) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 22.8 – Parada had such an underwhelming season for an advanced college bat. He had 11 homers with a 25.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 87 at High-A, and then he put up a 38.3%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 70 wRC+ in 14 games at Double-A. He didn’t hit for a ton of power, he didn’t get on base, and he didn’t hit for average. He’s not considered a good defensive catcher, so he was probably putting a ton of focus into his defense, which is often why catchers take longer to develop in general, but that isn’t exactly a point in Parada’s favor for fantasy either. He’s starting to look like a pretty low upside option with multiple areas of risk (hit tool, defense, Francisco Alvarez). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/20/75/.247/.323/.437/2
680) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with the Grissom trade, Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14
681) Ben Rice NYY, C/1B, 25.1 – Rice is on the old side for a prospect at Double-A, he isn’t a particularly good defensive catcher, and he struggled heavily vs. lefties, so I’m hesitant to fully buy into the huge numbers he put up in 2023. The numbers are undeniably beastly though, slashing .327/.401/.683 with 16 homers, 7 steals, and a 18.9%/9.5% K%/BB% in 48 games at Double-A. The statline scouting put Steamer into such a tizzy they already project him as an above average MLB hitter with a 103 wRC+. He has a contact oriented approach at the plate, but he has no problems lifting the ball with a 33.1% GB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power from a controlled lefty swing. It’s likely a bench bat profile, but there will certainly be opportunity to keep proving himself and to win a larger share of playing time. 2024 Projection: 13/2/9/.242/.305/.404/1 Prime Projection: 65/18/64/.259/.322/.430/6
682) Lyon Richardson CIN, RHP, 24.2 – Richardson returned from Tommy John surgery and he looked absolutely electric with mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus changeup. It led to a 3.50 ERA with a 34.5%/13.1% K%/BB% in 69.1 IP at mostly Double-A. He pitched in mostly 3-4 inning outings, his control wasn’t good, his breaking balls are mediocre, and he got knocked around in his cup of coffee in the majors (8.64 ERA with a 14.8%/18.5% K%/BB% in 16.2 IP). Maybe he comes back his 2nd year away from Tommy John even more refined and dangerous, but I think the safer bet is that he ends up a relief ace. 2024 Projection: 3/3.98/1.32/59 in 55 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.55/1.23/75/6 saves in 65 IP
683) Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.6 – Selected 56th overall, Sproat got drafted as a college senior, but with pitchers, it’s more about stuff than age, and Sproat most certainly has the stuff. He throws everything hard with a mid to upper mid 90’s fastball, an upper 80’s to low 90’s changeup, and an upper 80’s to low 90’s slider. Both his secondaries have plus potential. He also throws a slower curve. He didn’t exactly have the best statistical senior year with a 4.66 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 106.1 IP, but the 134/48 K/BB looks much better. The control is below average and like I mentioned, he’s never really had that dominant season, but he has the frame (6’3”, 210) and stuff to get excited even if he ends up in the pen. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.05/1.33/156 in 155 IP
684) Blake Wolters KCR, RHP, 19.5 -, Selected 44th overall, Wolters is your typical big, power pitching high school prospect that doesn’t take much of a discerning eye to see his talent. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a slider that flashes plus and a developing changeup. He has good control over all of his stuff. The ingredients are there to be a top pitching prospect with continued refinement. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 12/3.93/1.28/175 in 170 IP
685) Charlee Soto MIN, RHP, 18.7 – Selected 34th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Soto is a 6’5”, 200 pound power pitcher who is still on the raw side, but that is understandable considering he was only 17 years old at the draft and he only recently got transitioned from shortstop. The fastball sits in the mid 90’s which he combines with a filthy changeup and potentially plus slider. There is still some inconsistency in his game and he has to tighten up his command, but the ingredients are there for him to be an elite pitching prospect with continued refinement. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.33/178 in 165 IP
686) Hiro Wyatt KCR, RHP, 19.7 – Selected 75th overall, Wyatt has a truly nasty fastball/slider combo with both pitches displaying that quick twitch movement that is a nightmare to face. The fastball sits mid 90’s with tight tailing action and the slider gets vicious horizontal movement. He also throws a cutter and change, and how good he can develop those pitches will play a major factor in how high his upside could be as a starter. He also needs to refine his control/command. He’s not a huge guy at 6’1”, 185 pounds, but he’s not small either and I wouldn’t worry about his size at all. He has considerable upside with the floor of a high leverage reliever. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/165 in 155 IP
687) Sean Bouchard COL, OF, 27.11 – Bouchard didn’t return to the majors until September coming off surgery for a ruptured biceps, but he once again got back to raking. He has a 158 wRC+ in 140 PA over 2022-23. He hits the ball hard with a 91 MPH EV, but that is about all he does particularly well with a 32.6%/9.3% K%/BB%, 7.8 degree launch, and 27.3 ft/sec sprint. He is going to have to compete for at bats with Hunter Goodman, and eventually Zac Veen, Jordan Beck, Sterlin Thompson, and Yanquiel Fernandez as well, so playing time in the short term and long term is far from guaranteed. A short side of a platoon role might be the best outcome, and he’s more likely a bench bat, although it does seem Colorado intends to give him first shot at the starting RF job. 2024 Projection: 57/15/51/.250/.326/.428/9
688) Homer Bush Jr. SDP, OF, 22.6 – Selected 128th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Bush is quickly becoming one of my favorite underrated FYPD targets. He has plus bloodlines (Former Yankee Homer Bush is his father), great size (6’3”, 200 pounds), and an excellent pro debut with a plus contact/speed profile. He slashed .325/.422/.440 with 3 homers, 22 steals, and a 12.8%/10.7% K%/BB% in 44 games split between 3 levels (rookie, A, AA). His production didn’t drop off at all at Double-A with a 149 wRC+ and 6.9% K% in 8 games. I’m planning on grabbing him for cheap in every FYPD I’m in this off-season. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/12/52/.271/.331/.405/25
689) Jared Triolo PIT, 3B, 26.2 – Triolo has very quietly produced every year of his pro career, and while he’s been old for each level he’s played at, the lost 2020 season is a legitimate excuse for that. He made his MLB debut in 2023, and he continued to produce with a 118 wRC+ in 54 games. He mostly did it on the back of a clearly unsustainable .440 BABIP, but even his .324 xwOBA was above average, so it wasn’t all a mirage. Speed, OBP, and defense are his best skills with a 28.4 ft/sec sprint (6 steals), 11.5% BB% (.388 OBP), and a 3.8 Fangraphs defensive value. The hit tool and power are both below average with a 30.1% K% and 86.6 MPH EV, but both have room for improvement with better marks throughout his minor league career. He’s currently slotted to be the starting 2B, but he will have to compete to keep the job all year, and Termarr is coming for the job long term 2024 Projection: 56/10/51/.247/.332/.391/14
690) Jose Rodriguez CHW, SS/2B, 22.11 – Rodriguez lowered his GB% from over 50% to 41.3% and it led to an uptick in homer power with 21 homers in 106 games at mostly Double-A, but it came at the expense of his hit tool with his K% jumping from 13.6% in 2022 to 22% in 2023. Considering he doesn’t hit the ball very hard, you can’t really buy into the homer totals, and he also has a poor plate approach with a lowly 4.1% BB%. He’s likely a utility infielder type, but I’ve pounded into the ground that plus hit, plus speed, low EV players like Rodriguez can produce impact fantasy numbers if given the playing time, and there very well could be opportunity in the middle of Chicago’s infield in 2024. Not the worst flier type. 2024 Projection: 25/4/18/.241/.284/.352/9 Prime Projection: 68/12/52/.262/.308/.396/21
691) Kenedy Corona HOU, OF, 24.0 – Corona isn’t as big and doesn’t have the overt physicality or raw power as the other breakout hitters in Houston’s system at 5’10”, 184 pounds, but what he does have is plus centerfield defense, which is often the determining factor in who gets on the field. He has plus speed with 31 steals in 117 games at mostly Double-A, and it’s not like he has no power with 22 homers. The hit tool is below average with a .244 BA and 25.9%/9.8% K%/BB%, and he was a barely average hitter overall as a 23 year old with a 101 wRC+. It’s a fringy 4th outfielder type profile who has fantasy upside if his glove gets him on the field. 2024 Projection: 18/3/12/.224/.291/.381/6 Prime Projection: 73/18/67/.240/.310/.422/21
692) Kevin Kiermaier TOR, OF, 33.11 – Kiermaier is a plus CF with plus speed and an average at best bat. He hit .265 with 8 homers and 14 steals in 408 PA in 2023. He’s put up an above average xwOBA just once in his career, and he’s starting to get up there in age. 2023 was the best season he’s had in years, so that is probably the best you can hope for, which admittedly, wouldn’t be that bad if he gets full time at bats. His speed and PT makes him relevant even in shallower leagues. 2023 Projection: 68/10/49/.251/.311/.398/15
693) Alan Roden TOR, OF, 24.3 – Roden got drafted as a 22 year old in 2022, and he was too old for the lower minors, but he proved age to level production isn’t everything as he crushed Double-A when he got the chance. He slashed .310/.321/.460 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 15.3%/12.4% K%/BB% in 46 games at the level. He’s a good athlete with a plus approach and a swing geared for liners. He projects as an average to above average across the board type. 2024 Projection: 18/3/13/.252/.318/.391/5 Prime Projection: 79/16/73/.277/.340/.419/18
694) Jake Eder CHW, LHP, 25.6 – It’s often the 2nd year back from Tommy John that pitchers really return to full health, so I would give Eder one more year, but it’s hard to deny that 2023 was a pretty discouraging season. He put up a 6.35 ERA with a 26.2%/13.5% K%/BB% in 56.2 IP at mostly Double-A. The fastball velocity only sat low to mid 90’s, but he still has the wipeout slider and solid changeup. He’s not in must hold territory, but I’m expecting a much better year in 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/4.48/1.40/67 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.09/1.34/162 in 150 IP
695) Adrian Santana TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 31st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Santana is a plus defensive SS with elite speed, a good feel to hit and developing power. He’s not big at 5’11”, 160 pounds, so power will likely never be a big part of his game, but it’s not like he’s just a slap hitter with 11 homers in his senior year. The 73 wRC+ in 10 games in stateside rookie in his pro debut isn’t great, but the 19.1%/14.9% K%/BB%, 3 steals, and 42.9% GB% looks just fine. The glove should get him on the field, and the hit/speed combo should get him in your fantasy lineup. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/13/53/.269/.338/.403/33
696) Luke Keaschall MIN, 2B, 21.8 – Selected 49th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Keaschall is young for his college class, and he’s put up big production everywhere he’s played and every single year of his amateur career. He then stepped into pro ball and didn’t miss a beat, slashing .288/.414/.478 with 3 homers, 11 steals, and a 25/19 K/BB in 31 games at mostly Single-A. The raw power isn’t huge, but the 89.1 MPH EV he put up at Single-A shows he can make an impact, and the speed is plus. He might not be an upside league winner type, but he can be a speed first, legit all category producer. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/17/67/.261/.323/.410/22
697) Joe Whitman SFG, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 69th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Whitman is a 6’5”, 200 pound lefty with an extremely high spin, double plus slider as his standout pitch. It’s the type of filthy offering that can carry you straight into the majors. He heavily used that pitch to have a dominant Junior year at Kent State with a 2.56 ERA and 100/29 K/BB in 81 IP, and then he stepped into pro ball and did exactly the same with a 1.86 ERA and 13/3 K/BB in 9.2 IP at rookie ball and Single-A. If the fastball sat mid 90’s, we might have been talking about a top 10 pick, but it only sits in the low 90’s. Regardless, he spins that pitch well too and commands it well which allows it to miss bats and play above it’s velocity. He also flashes a potentially above average changeup. If the velocity ticks up, Whitman could be a truly hype beast pitching prospects by mid-season, and even if it doesn’t, the ingredients are there to be an impact fantasy starter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.27/165 in 160 IP
698) Aidan Curry TEX, RHP, 21.8 – Curry has the ingredients to be a truly hyped pitching prospect by next season. He’s a projectable 6’5”, 205 pounds with room to tack on more muscle, and he already can get the fastball consistently into the mid 90’s. He combines the fastball with a nasty sweeper and a pretty damn good changeup as well. It all resulted in a 2.30 ERA with a 30.8%/9.0% K%/BB% in 82 IP at Single-A. He struggled in two outings to close the year out at High-A, but he was already well passed his career high IP. With an extra tick or two on the fastball, and continued refinement all around, Curry is someone who could explode. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.28/160 in 160 IP
699) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP
700) Yuki Matsui SDP, Closer Committee, 28.5 – Matsui has been one of the top closers in Japan for years, and he signed with a team (5 years, $28 million) who has an opening at closer. Robert Suarez might be the favorite for the job at the moment, and the recently signed Woo Suk Go will also be in the mix, so you can’t draft Matsui expecting him to win it, but he could easily end up the guy. He’s coming off an excellent season in 2023 with a pitching line of 1.57/0.89/72/13 in 57.1 IP. He doesn’t really have prototypical closer stuff with a low to mid 90’s fastball, but he has a plus splitter which gets whiffs and a good slider as well. Without the huge fastball, I wouldn’t expect a truly elite closer even if he wins the job, but he’s worth taking a shot on in deeper leagues and/or leagues where you are desperate for saves. 2024 Projection: 4/3.62/1.20/66/15 saves in 60 IP
701) David Robertson TEX, Closer Committee, 39.0 – LeClerc is in major danger of losing his hold on the closer job, and I would say it’s 50/50 right now on who ends up winning it. Robertson is the much more stable option with a 3.03 ERA and 29.0%/9.3% K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. The stuff doesn’t blow you away with a 93.3 MPH cutter, but he’s never been a flamethrower, and this is actually as hard as he’s ever thrown, so it’s hard to be too worried about his advanced age either. If I had to bet, I would say Robertson ends up the main closer. 2024 Projection: 4/3.40/1.18/79/20 saves in 65 IP
702) Ryan Pressly HOU, Setup, 35.3 – Hader signing with the Astros pushes Pressly into a setup role. He had his worst season since breaking out in 2018 with a 3.58 ERA and 27.6%/6.0% K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. Nothing really looks too worrisome in the underlying numbers, and he was lights out in the playoffs, so it’s probably just normal reliever variance, but he is getting up there in age at 35 years old. If he’s taking a true step back it wouldn’t be all that surprising, and maybe that was at least part of the reason why Houston paid up for Hader. 2024 is his last guaranteed year under contract (he has a mutual option for 2025), so it’s very possible he can find a different closer job in 2025 if he has a good season. 2024 Projection: 5/3.25/1.04/74/8 saves in 63 IP
703) Abner Uribe MIL, Setup, 23.9 – Nobody is better than Milwaukee at churning out elite relievers, and Uribe looks to be next in line. He throws absolute gas with a 99.4 MPH sinker, which he combines with an elite slider that notched a 58.1% whiff% and .226 xwOBA. It was good for a 1.76 ERA and 30.7%/15.7% K%/BB% in 30.2 IP in his MLB debut. That walk rate is too high even for a relief pitcher, and he’s had truly horrific walk rates his entire career, so it’s not a foregone conclusion the control improves enough to fulfill his elite closer potential, but I’m willing to take on the risk. 2024 Projection: 4/3.31/1.20/80/3 saves in 60 IP
704) Justin Lawrence COL, Closer, 29.4 – Lawrence is a low end closer option who is currently the favorite for the job, but it’s far from guaranteed. He has the Coors handicap too with a 1.62 ERA in 33.1 IP on the road versus a 5.40 ERA in 41.2 IP at home, but even on the road the 32/15 K/BB wasn’t all that great, so it’s not like it’s just Coors Field holding him back. The stuff is good enough to not completely avoid him with a 95.4 MPH sinker that put up a negative 3 degree launch, and a plus sweeper that put up a .222 xwOBA, but I would want more assurance he ends up the guy there before even going after him for cheap. 2024 Projection: 4/3.82/1.31/70/23 saves in 65 IP
705) Giovanny Gallegos STL, Setup, 32.8 – Gallegos’ season ended on September 17th with a shoulder injury which doesn’t seem that serious, but it’s still not great. Assuming he’s healthy for 2024, he’s next man up in St. Louis and will certainly vulture some saves from Helsley. He grabbed 10 saves with 20 holds in 2023. The stats weren’t great with a 4.42 ERA and 25.8%/5.2% K%/BB%, but the 36.2% whiff% was still elite, so I wouldn’t be concerned with the mediocre numbers. He’s an elite setup man (if healthy). 2024 Projection: 4/3.41/1.11/72/10 saves in 60 IP
706) Jason Adam TBR, Setup, 32.8 – Adam is next man up in Tampa, and I’m sure he’ll grab a few saves even if Fairbanks stays healthy. He saved 12 games last year and 20 in the last two. He throws a 94.8 MPH fastball with two plus secondaries in his changeup and sweeper. All of his pitches miss bats with an elite 34.4% whiff% overall. It resulted in a 2.98 ERA with a 31.1%/9.0% K%/BB% in 54.1 IP. He’s an elite setup man. 2024 Projection: 4/3.25/1.07/77/10 saves in 62 IP
707) Jeff Hoffman PHI, Setup, 31.3 – Hoffman broke out in 2023 with a 2.41 ERA and 33.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP. It’s the first truly good year of his career, and he did it with a monster jump in stuff. The fastball velocity jumped 2.8 MPH to 97.1 MPH, the slider was better in every way, shape, and form with an elite .151 xwOBA and 45.2% whiff%, and the splitter was double plus with a .220 xwOBA and 35% whiff%. That type of huge uptick in stuff is rare to say the least, and suspicious to say the most, but I’m not going to ask questions I don’t want the answers to. Assuming he maintains that level of stuff, he can be a near elite reliever, but considering he’s only done it one year, it’s fair to factor in at least some regression. He’s the Phillies best righty in the bullpen (Seranthony isn’t far behind despite the down year), so he can end up with plenty of saves mixing and matching with Alvarado. 2024 Projection: 4/3.28/1.16/72/11 saves in 58 IP
708) Aroldis Chapman PIT, Setup, 36.1 – Chapman is next man up in Pitt and might steal some save chances away from Bednar when it makes sense to use a lefty. He bounced back everywhere you look from a terrible 2022 with a 3.09 ERA and 41.4%/14.5% K%/BB% in 58.1 IP. The velocity ticked back up 1.5 MPH to 99 MPH, and the slider got back to missing bats with a 46.1% whiff%. His walk rate has been in the danger zone for 3 straight years now, so he might never get back to true prime numbers, but the velocity and K rates were as good as ever. 2024 Projection: 5/3.20/1.24/94/10 saves in 58 IP
709) Lucas Erceg OAK, Closer Committee, 28.9 – Oakland’s plans are far from clear, but it seems like Erceg could factor into the saves mix, and he has the big stuff to make an impact if his control can take one step forward. He put up a 4.75 ERA (3.69 xERA) with a 27.1%/14.3% K%/BB% in 55 IP in his MLB debut. The sinker sat 98 MPH and is a plus, bat missing pitch, to go along with two good bat missing secondaries in his slider and changeup. He got drafted as a hitter in 2016, and only got transitioned to a pitcher in 2021, so there could more upside in the tank here than your average 28 year old. 2024 Projection: 3/3.93/1.37/79/10 saves in 65 IP
710) James McArthur KCR, Closer Committee, 27.4 – The Royals closer job is wide open right now, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on any of the options, although I guess it seems McArthur is in the pole position at the moment. He pitched well in 2023 in his MLB debut with a 4.63 ERA (2.95 xERA) and 25.6%/2.2% K%/BB% in 23.1 IP. He saved 4 games in the closer role at the end of the season, but he wasn’t used as a traditional reliever in the minors, and the stuff isn’t huge with a 94.1 MPH sinker and 24.8% whiff% overall. If I were forced to bet on who emerges from the Royals crew, I don’t think I would put my money on McArthur long term. 2024 Projection: 3/3.75/1.28/59/10 saves in 60 IP
711) Will Smith KCR, Closer Committee, 34.9 – Smith is the only lefty in the Royals pen at the moment, which makes it hard to project him winning the full time closer job, but he does have the experience edge. He didn’t have a great year in 2023 with a 4.39 ERA and 24.3%/7.5% K%/BB% in 57.1 IP, but the 3.30 xERA and 28.7% whiff% look much better, leading me to believe it is just normal reliever variance. The slider was still elite with a .174 xwOBA and the velocity was right in line with career norms with a 92.3 MPH fastball. 2024 Projection: 3/3.70/1.22/63/10 saves in 59 IP
712) Brady Singer KC, RHP, 27.8 – Singer’s stuff was down considerably with the sinker down 1.7 MPH to 92.1 MPH, and he got demolished with a 5.52 ERA and 18.9%/7% K%/BB% in 159.2 IP. He also couldn’t fully maintain his control gains from 2022 with his BB% rising 1.4 percentage points to 7%. He’s a back end guy. 2024 Projection: 7/4.19/1.33/132 in 150 IP Update: Singer has looked much better this spring with two new pitches in his sweeper and 4-seamer. It makes him much more interesting, but still only in flier range
713) Jason Foley DET, Setup, 28.5 – Alex Lange is definitely on the shaky side, and Foley slide in for 7 saves last year due to that shakiness. He has an elite control/groundball/velocity combo with a 5.4% BB% and 3.6 degree launch on the back of a 97.2 MPH sinker. It led to a 2.61 ERA with a 19.9% K% in 69 IP. His slider is below average, but he went to his changeup more last year which was much improved with a .264 xwOBA and 29.1% whiff%. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to really go after, but there could be another level in here, and Lange isn’t going to have a long leash. He’s one of the better save spec setup men. 2024 Projection: 3/3.40/1.23/55/10 saves in 65 IP
714) Brusdar Graterol LAD, Setup, 25.7 – Graterol has the elite control/groundball/velocity combo with a 4.7% BB% and 1.9 degree launch on the back of a 98.6 MPH sinker. It resulted in a 1.20 ERA with a 18.7% K% in 67.1 IP. He does have a decent bat missing secondary in his slider, but he only goes to it 24.3% of the time. He saved 7 games in 2023 and is likely next man up if anything happens to Phillips. 2024 Projection: 4/3.18/1.05/52/7 saves in 65 IP
715) Yennier Cano BAL, Setup, 30.1 – The Kimbrel signing blocks Cano’s path to saves in 2024, and Bautista is the man long term, so Cano looks locked into “next man up” status for the foreseeable future. He broke out in 2023 with a pitching line of 2.11/1.00/65/13/8 saves in 72.2 IP. His 96.3 MPH sinker is the 4th most valuable sinker in the game (including starters) with a negative 10 degree launch and a .292 xwOBA against. His changeup and slider both get whiffs with a 40.5% and 37.7% whiff%, respectively. And he showed elite control with a 4.6% BB%. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to be considered in the elite setup man tier, but he’s in the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 4/3.22/1.14/66/7 saves in 65 IP
716) Royber Salinas OAK, RHP, 23.0 – We just talked about Oakland letting a guy like Joe Boyle fly, so I see no reason why they wouldn’t do the same with Salinas. He’s a very thick (maybe too thick) 6’3” with big time stuff. The fastball sits mid 90’s and he has two potentially plus breaking balls in his curve and slider. He put up a 5.48 ERA (3.95 xFIP) with a 30.9%/10.8% K%/BB% in 67.1 IP. The control is below average, but it was double below average prior to this season, so he’s made improvements there. He also missed a month and a half of the season with an elbow injury, so injuries are another risk. He likely ends up in the bullpen, but Oakland should give him every chance to stick in the rotation. 2024 Projection: 1/4.22/1.38/37 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 6/3.91/1.32/128 in 120 IP
717) Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS, 22.8 – Hernaiz is currently penciled in as Oakland’s starting SS, but he would only be keeping the SS seat warm for Jacob Wilson. 3B is wide open long term, and he can play all over the infield, so if he performs, Oakland shouldn’t have a problem finding a spot for him long term. His hit tool driven, solid across the board profile completely transferred to the upper minors in 2023, slashing .321/.386/.456 with 9 homers, 13 steals, and 13.4%/8.9% K%/BB% in 131 games. The power/speed numbers were even more underwhelming than expected, but the hit tool was better than expected. His profile is actually remarkably similar to Jacob Wilson, except without the extra body projection and maybe a tick worse hit tool. 2024 Projection: 47/7/41/.253/.308/.369/8 Prime Projection: 78/14/61/.274/.330/.392/12
718) Josh Rojas SEA, 3B/2B, 29.9 – Rojas seems to be in the strong side of a 3B platoon at the moment. He had a down year in 2023 with a 78 wRC+ in 350 PA, but it really wasn’t that far off from his career norms, which is the problem. He doesn’t hit for power with only 4 homers and the BA is average at best (.245 with a 23.1% K%). The one saving grace is that he’s an excellent base stealer (12 for 12 on the bases) despite below average speed (26.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s best suited as a part time player. 2024 Projection: 55/8/46/.251/.323/.388/14
719) Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – Don’t stick a fork in Martin quite yet. He missed the 1st half of the season with an elbow injury, but he performed well at Triple-A when he returned, slashing .263/.386/.405 with 6 homers, 16 steals, and a 17.1%/14.3% K%/BB% in 59 games. He still doesn’t hit the ball hard, and while that doesn’t preclude him from being an impact fantasy player considering his other skills (plus speed, plus contact, plus plate approach), it’s not the type of profile that will demand a full time job right out of the gate. He’ll have to fight for playing time and will probably be in a utility role to start his career. 2024 Projection: 16/2/9/.238/.307/.373/4 Prime Projection: 76/14/59/.259/.332/.403/21
720) Wilfredo Lara NYM, 3B/OF, 19.11 – Lara’s power took a big jump forward in 2023, and it led to a breakout season, slashing .264/.362/.452 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 21.8%/12.2% K%/BB% in 99 games at Single-A. He has a legitimately athletic and explosive swing, to go along with plus speed and above average CF defense. The hit tool needs continued refinement, but he’s a guy who you barely hear a whisper about, and he’s actually damn good. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.253/.326/.418/19
721) Alex Wood OAK, LHP, 33.3 – Wood lands in an excellent situation for him in Oakland, guaranteeing him a rotation spot and a long leash. Obviously lack of wins is the downside, but beggars can’t be choosers. He had one of the worst years of his career in 2023 with a 4.33 ERA and 17.2%/9.8% K%/BB% in 97.2 IP. He battled a hamstring and back injury throughout the season, and at 33 years old with a long injury history, I would assume he’s firmly entering the back end starter stage of his career. 2024 Projection: 6/4.27/1.30/120 in 130 IP
722) Andrew McCutchen PIT, DH, 37.6 – McCutchen’s season ended in early September with a torn Achilles that required surgery. Buying a 37 year old coming off a torn Achilles doesn’t sound like the best idea, but prior to going down with the injury, he’s was playing damn well. He had a 115 wRC+, .353 xwOBA, 89.6 MPH EV, and 28.4 fts/sec sprint. The plate approach was mature with a 21.1%/15.9% K%/BB%, and the power/speed combo was moderate with 12 homers and 11 steals in 112 games. Considering the injury, he would only be a super cheap deep league option for me as factoring in continued decline seems prudent. 2024 Projection: 60/14/60/.250/.340/.410/7
723) Ryan O’Hearn BAL, 1B/OF, 30.8 – O’Hearn is a strong side of a platoon bat who will have a very short leash with the amount of talent knocking on the door in Baltimore. But he has the talent to force his bat into the lineup with at least plus power (91.9/95.9 MPH AVG/FB EV) and solid contact rates (22.3% K% and 23.3% whiff%). He hit .289 with 14 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 368 PA in 2023. 2024 Projection: 45/15/55/.268/.314/.456/4
724) Mark Canha DET, OF, 35.1 – Canha can lose his fantasy relevance at any moment with a very low upside profile at 35 years old. He’s still an above average hitter with a 111 wRC+ assuming no further decline, but he hit .262 with 11 homers and 11 steals in 139 games. He’s also a bad defensive player. The .355 OBP is where he derives his value, so he’s slightly more appealing in OBP leagues, but I can’t imagine he holds down a full time job for much longer. 2024 Projection: 59/13/59/.252/.339/.403/9
725) Mike Yastrzemski SFG, OF, 33.8 – Yas is a strong side of a platoon bat with plus power and a below average hit tool. He cracked 15 homers with a .233 BA in 106 games, and the 90 MPH EV with a 26% K% backs up the profile. At 33 years old, he’s likely towards the end of even having a full time platoon role. 2024 Projection: 58/18/45/.238/.326/.439/3
726) Deyvison De Los Santos ARI, 1B/3B, 20.9 – Cleveland selected De Los Santos in the Rule 5 Draft, and I’m honestly not sure this is a good thing for Deyvison or his fantasy owners. He’ll still be only 20 years old for the first 3 months of the 2024 season, and he’s already been advanced through the minors too aggressively to begin with. Now he’ll be thrown into the fire in the majors. Arizona assigned the 19 year old to Double-A to start the year and he struggled hard with 7 homers and a .570 OPS in his first 61 games at the level, but he found his groove in the 2nd half with 14 homers and a .927 OPS in his final 58 games. The plate approach is still rough with a 26%/5.2% K%/BB%, the groundball rates are still way too high with a 52.8% GB%, and he’s still a poor defensive player. If he sticks with Cleveland, he’ll likely be used as a bench bat, so you are burning years of team control in leagues that aren’t keep forever. Best case scenario is that Cleveland ends up sending him back to Arizona, which I might be leaning towards as the most likely outcome. His power is legit and will play at any level, so there is a possibility he surprises, which is the low risk bet Cleveland is making. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 69/26/82/.248/.322/.458/3 Update: As I expected, Cleveland sent DDLS back to Arizona
727) Nick Madrigal CHC, 3B, 27.1 – Madrigal had the stolen base EXPLOSION we’ve all been waiting for … with 10 steals in 92 games. Womp Womp. He combines the continually disappointing steal totals with 2 homers and a .263 BA. The contact rates are elite with a 8.2% K%, but a 0.8% Barrel% is brutal, and his speed is merely above average with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint. He’s a utility player. 2024 Projection: 51/5/38/.275/.324/.360/14
728) Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B/OF, 22.8 – Noel had a relatively uninspiring year at Triple-A with a 77 wRC+ in 138 games, but he still jacked 27 homers, and it doesn’t really change his ultimate profile all that much as a low BA (.220 BA), poor defensive slugger. He didn’t hit the ball particularly hard this year, but he’s 6’3”, 250 pounds with double plus raw power, so it isn’t too much of a concern. He’s currently in LIDOM and he’s already cracked 3 homers with a .174 BA in 7 games. Playing time will be an issue, but you know he’ll jack homers if he gets it. 2024 Projection: 13/4/18/.219/.296/.422/0 Prime Projection: 64/21/76/.238/.320/.461/1
729) Wilfred Veras CHW, OF, 21.5 – Veras put up some fun fantasy numbers with 17 homers, 24 steals and a .286 BA in 130 games split between High-A and Double-A. He was actually better in Double-A as a 20 year old. He’s 6’2”, 180 pounds with monster raw power and baseball bloodlines (his cousin is Fernando Tatis Jr.). All of that information should make me love him, but there are enough issues that make me hesitant. The plate approach is rough with a 25.7%/5.0% K%/BB%, the GB% is very high at 55.3%, and he doesn’t have much defensive value. He’s also not a burner, so you can’t fully trust the stolen base numbers. He’s kinda an extreme prospect with a bunch of things to absolutely love and a bunch of things to absolutely hate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/21/77/.247/.308/.442/11
730) Victor Bericoto SFG, 1B/OF, 22.4 – Bericoto seems to be on a beeline for a short side of a platoon bat with SF. You know how SF loves their platoon bats. He has a legitimately electric righty swing that produces plus power, cracking 27 homers with an .840 OPS in 122 games split between High-A and Double-A. The hit tool and plate approach took a big step back at Double-A with a 26.5%/6.9% K%/BB% and .237 BA in 51 games, but he was only 21, and he was still an above average hitter with 11 homers and a 104 wRC+. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 43/16/51/.244/.318/.436/2
731) Jason Heyward LAD, OF, 34.8 – Here’s what I wrote in Heyward’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, ranking him 1,003rd overall, “We’ve heard about the new swing and LA working their magic on Heyward, and then we got a first hand look at it. Heyward unloaded on his first homer of the spring and looked equally good demolishing his 2nd a few days later. It was undeniably impressive, but Heyward is the type of athlete that has always been undeniably impressive at 6’5”, 240 pounds. I mean, would anything be more fun than a late late career breakout for a player we all thought would be a superstar? There are definitely at bats to be won in LA this year. Crazier things have happened …” … the breakout did in fact happen, albeit in a part time role, slashing .269/.340/.473 with 15 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.0%/9.0% K%/BB% in 377 PA. It was good for a 121 wRC+. His 15.4 degree launch was the highest of his career, and that is what mainly fueled the breakout, but good luck also fueled the breakout with a .348 xwOBA vs. .319 wOBA. The plus contact, plus launch, plus pull profile is a Statcast blind spot though, so the breakout certainly wasn’t only luck. He looks setup for a strong side of a platoon role, but there is definitely risk he ends up more of a bench bat with little to no leash. 2024 Projection: 48/13/42/.260/.328/.434/2
732) Chris Taylor LAD, SS/3B/OF, 33.7 – Taylor is an aging super utility player who has major strikeout problems (32.6% K%). He also doesn’t hit the ball hard (86.2 MPH EV), but he pulls it a ton and hits it in the air, so he gets the most of his raw power (15 homers in 117 games). And he has above average speed with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint and 16 steals. With LA signing Teoscar Hernandez, his playing time takes an even bigger hit. 2024 Projection: 48/13/48/.235/.325/.418/12
733) Wilmer Flores SFG, 1B/3B, 32.8 – Flores has the Isaac Paredes profile with low EV’s (86.4/90.9 MPH AVG/FB EV), high pull rates (46.1% Pull%), a high launch (22 degree launch), and lots of contact (13.9% K%). As expected, it’s resulted in him beating his underlying numbers throughout his career (.331 wOBA vs. 308 xwOBA), and he did it again in 2023 with a .368 wOBA vs. .333 xwOBA. It resulted in career best .863 OPS and 136 wRC+ in 126 games. Unlike Paredes, Flores hits in one of the worst parks for righty homers, and SF seems alergic to giving him full time at bats. He’s always been a good hitter throughout his career, but the team and ballpark limits his upside. 2024 Projection: 56/18/64/.267/.338/.447/1
734) Carlos Santana MIN, 1B, 38.0 – Santana seems to have the starting 1B job in Minnesota, but he can easily end up more of a bench bat. He put up a 101 wRC+ in both 2022 and 2023. His .308 xwOBA was a career low by far and so was his 10.5% BB%. There is still some juice in the bat with a 16.8% K% and 88.8 MPH EV, but his career is winding down. 2024 Projection: 55/18/61/.236/.317/.420/4
735) Trent Grisham NYY, OF, 27.5 – Grisham is a bench bat with the Yankees, but maybe the huge ballpark upgrade will help him get the most out of his intriguing underlying numbers. He put up a 11.9% Barrel%, 90.3/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, and 18.3 degree launch in 153 games, but it only resulted in 13 homers and a .198 BA. The 27.7%/13.5% K%/BB% isn’t great, but it’s not horrible, and he’s a good defensive player. It wouldn’t be crazy if he was better than Alex Verdugo. 2024 Projection: 43/13/41/.220/.320/.400/12
736) Elehuris Montero COL, 1B, 25.7 – Montero closed out the season very strong, slashing .292/.355/.540 with 8 homers and a 30.9%/6.6% K%/BB%, but that is all he can really hang his hat on. He’s a bad defensive player, he put up a 76 wRC+ in 85 games, his hit tool is terrible with a 39.3% whiff%, the plate approach is horrific with a 43.2% Chase% and 4.9% BB%, he doesn’t lift the ball enough with a 9.9 degree launch, and he doesn’t hit it hard enough with a 92.9 MPH FB/LD EV. He also has competition for the 1B/DH job. He’s only a bench flier in deeper leagues. 2024 Projection: 38/13/46/.240/.303/.432/0
737) Zach McKinstry DET, OF/3B/2B/SS, 28.11 – With Detroit’s talented group of upper minors hitters, most notably Keith and Jung, McKinstry is headed for a super utility role. He leveled up in 2023 with a career best 21.8% K% and .312 xwOBA. He has above average speed (28.5 ft/sec sprint) and can lift the ball (17.8 degree launch), but a 89.2 MPH FB/LD EV caps his upside. 2024 Projection: 41/8/35/.240/.310/.392/13
738) Owen Miller MIL, 1B/2B/3B, 27.5 – Miller plays a lot of positions that Milwaukee is weak in, he’s a good defensive player, he gets the bat on the ball with a 19.4% K%, and he’s fast with a 29 ft/sec sprint speed (13 steals in 90 games). The problem is that he can’t do any damage with a 86.3/89.4 MPH AVG/FB EV and 3.4% Barrel%, leading to a 81 wRC+. If he can hit the ball harder as he enters his late 20’s, there is a path to legit impact fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 36/6/33/.257/.305/.384/11
739) Eddie Rosario WAS, OF, 32.6 – Rosario is an average hitter (100 wRC+ in 516 PA) and a below average defensive player. That isn’t a recipe to find a full time job on the free agent market, and he wasn’t able to find one signing with Washington in some kind of platoon role. He’s also getting up there in age, and the hit tool is declining with a 29.7% whiff% and 23.6% K% which are both much worse than career norms. 2024 Projection: 46/16/53/.250/.300/.435/4
740) Adam Duvall ATL, OF, 35.7 – Duvall resigned with Atlanta and looks to be in a short side of a platoon role. He’s an extreme launch player with a 28.9 degree launch, and it led to 21 homers in 92 games. The plate approach is terrible with a 31.2%/6.2% K%/BB%, so expect a very low BA. 2024 Projection: 48/20/61/.229/.295/.489/3
741) Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 26.8 – The Joc signing pushes McCarthy into a speed bench role only. He has elite speed and nothing else with 26 steals and a 29.9 ft/sec sprint in 312 MLB PA. The hit tool and power are both well below average with only 2 homers, an 85.3 MPH EV, and a .243 BA. There is fantasy upside if he ends up with playing time, but he’s not someone I’m banking on. 2024 Projection: 31/5/22/.253/.321/.390/17
742) Jordan Diaz OAK, 2B/3B, 23.8 – I was never the highest guy on Diaz because I was scared off by his very high groundball rates, very low walk rates, very slow speed and very poor defense, and that is exactly what got him in his rookie year with a 78 wRC+ and negative 0.9 WAR in 293 PA. He put up a 5.4 degree launch, 5.8% BB%, 25.3 ft/sec sprint, and a negative 8.3 Fangraphs defensive value. His hit tool actually wasn’t even that good either with a 23.5% K% and 29.9% whiff%. The one saving grace is that he hit the ball very hard with a 90/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that one thing can erase a lot of deficiencies. There are at least one too many deficiencies for me to buy into Diaz, and it doesn’t look like he has a starting job at the moment, so he’s only rosterable in deeper leagues. 2024 Projection: 31/9/39/.248/.297/.410/0
743) Mauricio Dubon HOU, 2B/OF, 29.9 – Dubon is a super utility player with near elite contact rates (14.2% K%), above average speed (28.1 fts/sec sprint), well below average pop (4.5% Barrel%) and above average defense. He hit .278 with 10 homers and 7 steals in 492 PA. He’ll probably need an injury to Jeremy Pena to get full time at bats, because at every other position, Houston has options in the upper minors who they may prefer to go to. 2024 Projection: 55/9/38/.268/.308/.402/8
744) Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 26.9 – I struggle to find a path to playing time for Marlowe, but he had a very encouraging MLB debut. He was a plus defensive player, with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint), an above average barrel% (7.3%), a 112 wRC+, a 12% BB%, and a not horrible 29.4% whiff% (despite a 33% K%). He doesn’t hit the ball that hard with a 86.6 MPH EV, but a 20.8 degree launch will get the most out of his raw power. If he does work his way into playing time, he has a very intriguing fantasy profile, especially in OBP leagues. 2024 Projection: 36/8/33/.231/.322/.401/14
745) Jonathan Aranda TBR, 1B/2B, 25.10 – Aranda is a poor defensive player, he’s not that young, he’s in a stacked organization, and his hit tool hasn’t been good in the majors. He hit .230 with a 30.1% K% in 103 MLB PA in 2023. He once again destroyed Triple-A with a 165 wRC+, and he hits the ball legitimately hard (92.3 MPH EV at AAA and 90.1 MPH career EV in the majors), but there is absolutely zero leash for him with no guarantee on when he will get his next chance. A trade would help his value, but I’m not sure his trade value is that high and he would still have to fight for playing time in another organization. If he works his way into playing time, he’s worth picking up, but he’s not the type I really want to hold with no speed and a line drive approach. 2024 Projection: 38/10/45/.242/.328/.415/2
746) Victor Mesa Jr. MIA, OF, 22.7 – The Mesa brothers have been very disappointing since coming over from Cuba, but Victor Jr. still has a chance to make due on his promise. His power broke out in 2023 with 18 homers in 123 games at Double-A as a 21 year old, and looking at his pretty thick 6’0” frame with a big lefty swing, there could be more in the tank down the line. He’s also retained his athleticism with above average speed (16 steals) and above average CF defense. The hit tool and approach still need to take at least one step forward, as a .242 BA and 22.9%/7.7% K%/BB% led to an only 91 wRC+ despite the strong power/speed numbers. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/22/75/.247/.314/.433/11
747) Harold Ramirez TBR, OF, 29.7 – Ramirez is a short side of a platoon DH. He has above average contact rates (18.2% K%) and he hits the ball fairly hard (89.1 MPH EV), but he doesn’t have enough lift (6.1 degree launch) or speed (5 steals in 434 PA) to have a ton of fantasy value in a part time role. He’s a BA play. 2024 Projection: 41/9/49/.282/.330/.430/4
748) Will Brennan CLE, OF, 26.2 – Brennen isn’t a quite good enough defensive player and isn’t quite fast enough (28.3 ft/sec sprint) to make up for his weak hitting. He put up a 85.7 MPH EV and 81 wRC+ in 455 MLB PA. He has elite contact rates with a 12.5% K% and .286 xBA (.266 BA), but 5 homers with 13 steals in 18 attempts is very lacking for fantasy purposes even if he was able to lock down a full time job, which is far from guaranteed, and is looking unlikely in the near future. 2024 Projection: 41/5/33/.278/.322/.392/13
749) Andrew Monasterio MIL, 3B/2B, 26.10 – Monasterio is likely a bench bat both short and long term with the Joey Ortiz trade, and Tyler Black and Brock Wilken on the way, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him at least make the decision as hard as possible on Milwaukee. He has a good feel to hit (21% K% and 21.7% whiff%), he hits it hard (88.8 MPH EV), he can lift it (17.7 degree launch), he has above average speed (28 ft.sec sprint), and he’s a solid defensive player. He’s not a big home run hitter because the 90.7 MPH FB/LD EV is low, but he can do better than the 3 homers he put up in 315 MLB PA. There is average across the board potential here. 2024 Projection: 42/8/35/.256/.330/.397/10
750) Taylor Walls TBR, SS/2B/3B, 27.9 – Even with Franco looking unlikely to ever play again, Walls has plenty of competition for the SS job both short and long term. Another complication is that he had hip surgery this off-season and is “iffy” for opening day. He’s a very bad hitter with a .277 xwOBA and .638 OPS in 349 PA in 2023, but he nabbed 22 bases (28.2 ft/sec sprint), he lifts the ball with a 19.1 degree launch (8 homers), and he gets on base with a 26.4%/12.6% K%/BB%. He can certainly be fantasy relevant if he’s in the lineup. 2024 Projection: 45/8/29/.221/.318/.371/14
751) Gabriel Arias CLE, SS/1B, 24.1 – Arias has always been pushed aggressively because of his plus glove while the bat lagged behind, so his production in his rookie year isn’t a surprise. He was a plus defensive player with a 32.8%/8.1% K%/BB% and 74 wRC+ in 345 PA. The thing that gets him on this list is that he has an above average to plus raw power/speed combo with a 91.1 MPH EV and 28.1 ft/sec speed, which resulted in 10 homers and 3 steals. If his glove keeps giving him chances, and if he can mature at the plate, the tools are there to be an impact fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 42/11/39/.227/.296/.396/6
752) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 25.11 – Mervis is starting to look mighty blocked in Chicago with the Michael Busch trade. He had a disaster pro debut with a 46 wRC+ and 32.3%/8.1% K%/BB% in 99 PA, and Chicago didn’t give him much leash to figure out his struggles on the MLB level. He dominated Triple-A again with a 132 wRC+ in 100 games, but he wouldn’t be the first older, 1B only bat who just couldn’t hit enough to hold down a full time job on the MLB level. He also struggles vs. lefties, so a strong side of a platoon bat might be the reasonable ceiling at this point. The one thing you can hang your hat on is how hard he crushed the ball with a 91/98.5 MPH AVG/FB EV, but he didn’t hit it quite as hard at Triple-A with a 88.8 MPH EV. 2024 Projection: 26/9/35/.239/.320/.431/1
753) Dustin Harris TEX, OF/1B, 24.9 – Harris’ power pulled back in 2023 with only 14 homers in 127 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, and the underlying numbers back up the decline with a 84.1 MPH EV at Triple-A. He’s hit the ball harder in the past and he’s got more raw power in the tank at a rock solid 6’3”, so I would expect a bounce back next year, but it’s not great. On the plus side, he continued to show an excellent plate approach (22.6%/14.8% K%/BB%), the ability to lift the ball (35.2% GB%), and speed (41 for 46 on the bases), so it’s a mighty enticing fantasy profile even if he never puts up beastly exit velocity numbers. He’s on the older side and he’s not a particularly good defensive player, so he’s a fringy-ish fantasy prospect on a team where their fringy-ish prospects will be used as bench pieces/depth. 2024 Projection: 14/2/10/.232/.307/.389/5 Prime Projection: 76/18/69/.247/.324/.424/19
754) Addison Barger TOR, 3B/SS/OF, 24.5 – Barger had a down year with a 92 wRC+ in 88 games at Triple-A. I’m calling it a “down year” because he had an elbow injury that contributed to a slow start to the year. He was much better in the 2nd half with a .809 OPS and 8 homers in his final 64 games. Everything that made him a fun breakout in 2022 is still present with plus power, and his plate approach actually improved with a 17.7%/13.7% K%/BB% over those last 64 games. He’s not a great defensive player, but Toronto played him all over the field, so he seems to have some versatility. He’s not going to be handed a full time job, but he has the type of bat that could win him one over time. 2024 Projection: 22/6/24/.232/.302/.403/2 Prime Projection: 76/24/81/.253/.328/.448/6
755) Luken Baker STL, 1B, 27.1 – Baker arguably had the best statistical season of any hitter in the minor leagues. He smashed Triple-A, slashing .334/.439/.720 with 33 homers and a 20.0%/15.5% K%/BB% in 84 games. It was good for a 180 wRC+. He wasn’t able to keep it up in the majors with a 31.3% K% and 79 wRC+ in 99 PA, but the ingredients are there for him to become a low BA slugger if he can find playing time. In the majors, he put up a 93.1/96.6 MPH AVG/FB EV with a 16.9 degree launch and a .320 xwOBA. The EV numbers were big in the minors too with a 92.1 MPH EV. He’s not the type of prospect I like to hold waiting for him to get playing time, but if a path opens up for him, he would be an easy pickup. 2024 Projection: 27/8/32/.231/.319/.432/0
756) Damiano Palmegiani TOR, 3B/1B, 24.2 – Palmegiani has been an absolute terror since entering pro ball in 2021. He put up a 167 wRC+ in rookie, a 141 wRC+ at Single-A, a 116 wRC+ at High-A, a 123 wRC+ at Double-A, and a 146 wRC+ at Triple-A. He’s now ripping up the AFL with a .941 OPS in 22 games. He has at least plus power with 26 homers in 144 games split between 3 levels (AA, AAA, AFL), but it comes with some swing and miss with a 27.2% K%, and he’s not a particularly good defensive player. Despite the hit tool and defensive risk, it’s easy to bet on a guy who has had nothing but success and a carrying tool in his power. 2024 Projection: 11/5/14/.230/.301/.421/0 Prime Projection: 66/25/77/.243/.321/.466/4
757) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 22.8 – Hassell’s fall from grace was so brutal it almost makes you hesitant to invest too heavily in Nationals prospects at all (see below for the Dynasty Thought of the day). He’s someone with a hit tool driven profile, except he struck out 31.9% of the time with a .225 BA in 106 games at Double-A. He didn’t even run that much with only 13 steals, and he doesn’t have much power with 8 homers and a 53.1% GB%. I’m actually stumped on what we are buying here other than former prospect hype, but at the same time, it was his first truly down year of his career. We have to give him the opportunity to overcome adversity and come out the other side of it before completely tanking his ranking. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/14/61/.243/.318/.407/16
758) Gavin Cross KC, OF, 23.2 – Cross’ year was no doubt a disaster with a 91 wRC+ in 94 games at High-A. A 22 year old, advanced college bat should be doing damage against lower minors pitchers, but there were enough positives to not completely give up on him. The 27.8% K% wasn’t good, but it’s not hopeless either, he did show off a solid power/speed combo with 12 homers and 23 steals, and a relatively low .262 BABIP probably made a mediocre season look even worse. He utterly obliterated Single-A last year, so it’s not like he’s just been total trash in his pro career. The pedigree and power/speed combo has me thinking he’s in for a bounce back in 2024, but I would only acquire him if the price is very cheap. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/19/73/.239/.317/.427/14
759) Jansel Luis ARI, 2B/SS, 19.1 – Luis was excellent in the DSL in 2022 with a plus contact/speed profile, and the skills transferred completely to stateside rookie ball in 2023, slashing .297/.381/.495 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 14.3%/8.6% K%/BB% in 25 games. He then got the call to Single-A as an 18 year old and he held his own, slashing .257/.310/.417 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 22.6%/5.2% K%/BB% in 36 games. He’s a switch hitter who does everything well on a baseball field with plus contact, developing power, speed and good defense. He’s not a huge guy, but there is certainly plenty of projection left at a skinny 6’0”. If his power takes another step forward, he can really start popping, and the floor is pretty high as is. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/17/60/.269/.327/.420/23
760) Kevin McGonigle DET, SS, 19.7 – Selected 37th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, McGonigle is a hit tool play with one of the most advanced bats in the high school class. He has a simple and quick left handed swing that has racked up hits everywhere he’s played, and includes both stateside rookie (135 wRC+) and Single-A (151 wRC+) in his pro debut. He slashed .315/.452/.411 with 1 homer, 8 steals (in 13 attempts) and a 10.9%/19.4% K%BB% in 21 games. He’s only 5’11’, 185 pounds and the power/speed combo isn’t big, but it’s not like he doesn’t have any athleticism. He’s definitely a good athlete. Hit tool first high school prospects aren’t my favorite aisle to shop in, but McGonigle has enough upside to go after. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/15/59/.283/.354/.418/12
761) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Tejada ripped up the DSL in 2022 with a 162 wRC+, and he did the same in stateside rookie ball in 2023, slashing .307/.465/.458 with 5 homers, 24 steals, and a 20.3%/20.3% K%/BB% in 50 games. He’s not a projectable tools guy at only 5’11”, but he has a quick righty swing and is a strong overall offensive player with average to above average hit, approach, power, and speed. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/18/68/.268/.339/.429/14
762) Myles Naylor OAK, SS, 19.0 – Selected 39th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Myles Naylor is your last chance to get in on the Naylor family without having to pay through the nose (Josh and Bo are his older brothers). The youngest Naylor is 6’2”, 195 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing that jacked out 6 homers in 32 games at Single-A in his pro debut. He wasn’t expected to have major hit tool issues when he was drafted, but his 39.4% K% ended up being scary, and he struck out 3 times in 6 AB in rookie ball too. I want to give him a pass because of his plus bloodlines, aggressive assignment, and track record as an amateur, but the cold hard numbers without any narrative are a little hard to stomach. The high strikeout rate prevents me from flying him up FYPD rankings, but the swing is exciting, and his power is so sincere. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/28/85/.241/.323/.473/5
763) Robert Calaz COL, OF, 18.4 – Calaz was the Rockies top international signing with a $1.7 million signing bonus, and he delivered in his pro debut in the DSL, slashing .325/.423/.561 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 22.8%/11.6% K%/BB% in 43 games. It was good for a 155 wRC+. He has the tools to back it up at an athletic 6’2”, 202 pounds with plus power being his calling card. He’s definitely a candidate to explode when he gets stateside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/25/79/.251/.322/.464/7
764) Abraham Nunez CHW, OF, 18.1 – If you like your DSL prospects to look the part, Nunez is your guy. He’s a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with baseball bloodlines (his dad played in the majors) and good athleticism. He played well in the DSL with 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 11.9%/17.8% K%/BB% in 44 games. He checks a lot of boxes in what you look for in a future breakout. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/22/79/.268/.338/.440/14
765) Javier Mogollon CHW, 2B/SS, 18.5 – Mogollon is not your typical tall drink of water, projectable DSL prospect at only 5’8”, but he’s a legitimately explosive player with power, speed and contact ability. He destroyed the DSL, slashing .315/.417/.582 with 10 homers, 11 steals, and a 14.1%/13.6% K%/BB% in 47 games. He’s definitely a candidate to be one of the next small, but still hyped prospect in the mold of a Jonatan Clase or Carlos Jorge. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 79/18/76/.275/.335/.425/18
766) Yoeilin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7 – Yoeilin Cespedes takes huge hacks at the dish, reminiscent of a miniature version of Vlad Guerrero Sr. And like Vlad Sr., he also makes tons of contact. He crushed the DSL in his pro debut, slashing .346/.392/.560 with 6 homers, 1 steals, and a 11.5%/6.7% K%/BB% in 46 games. He’s only 5’9”, and while he hits the ball hard, it’s hard to expect him to be a true beastly power hitter. He also doesn’t have much speed and he’s a very aggressive hitter at the dish. The swing is super fun and his hit/power combo proved to be legit in the DSL, so maybe I’m getting too caught up on the perceived negatives (size, lack of speed, and aggressiveness), but he’s not yet in that must target territory for me. I do like him at a reasonable price though. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 73/21/78/.268/.326/.432/5
767) Jeremy Rodriguez NYM, SS, 17.9 – Rodriguez signed for $1.25 million in last year’s international class, and he went out and earned that signing bonus in the DSL, slashing .293/.411/.467 with 3 homers, 19 steals, and a 15.3%/16.3% K%/BB% in 51 games. The Mets then targeted him at the deadline in a 1 for 1 trade with Tommy Pham. That tells you right there how highly the Mets think of him, and he’ll still be 17 years old for the first half of 2024. He’s a projectable 6’0”, 170 pounds with a quick lefty swing that should produce at least average power at peak, with a definite chance for more than that. He’s also an excellent all around athlete with a good glove at SS. There isn’t necessarily jaw dropping tools here, but he’s toolsy, and he showed an excellent plate approach in his debut. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/.267/.336/.421/18
768) Landon Roupp SFG, RHP, 25.7 – Roupp is 6’2”, 205 pounds with a relatively athletic righty delivery that uses to fire an elite spin, double plus curveball. He combines that standout pitch with plus control, a 4 pitch mix, and a low to mid 90’s fastball. He used that arsenal to dominate Double-A with a 1.74 ERA and 35%/7.5% K%/BB% in 31 IP. He only pitched in relatively short outings and he’s on the older side, but Roupp has literally never not pitched well at any level going back to his Freshman year of college. He also went longer outings in 2022 (2.60 ERA with a 152/37 K/BB in 107.1 IP). The one snafu is that he was shutdown for the season on June 30th with an unspecified injury, but it seems he’s expected to be healthy for 2024. 2024 Projection: 2/4.28/1.31/48 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.99/1.26/155 in 150 IP
769) Richard Fitts BOS, RHP, 24.3 – Fitts always strikes me as a #4 type starting pitcher when watching him, but plus control guys can often beat the visual evaluations of them. He put up a 3.48 ERA with a 25.9%/6.8% K%/BB% in 152.2 IP at Double-A. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s and an above average slider is his best secondary. He probably needs to up his control/command to an even higher level to be an impact fantasy starter, because the stuff is hittable when he catches too much of the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.22/1.28/140 in 150 IP
770) Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 24.3 – I was feeling Arrihetti as a breakout candidate coming into this year in the mold of a Cristian Javier, and while I still wouldn’t rule that out, he disappointed when he got to Triple-A with a 4.64 ERA and 23.1%/13.4% K%/BB% in 64 IP. He fastball sat only 92.5 MPH and the slider was solid but didn’t dominate. The PCL is a tough league, he was much better at Double-A with a 4.15 ERA and 31.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 60 IP, and the lesser used changeup took a step forward as an at least average pitch, so it wasn’t a disaster year by any stretch. He didn’t go full breakout like I thought was possible, but he remains an intriguing close to the majors arm in a great organization. 2024 Projection: 2/4.39/1.38/45 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.32/157 in 155 IP
771) Ignacio Alvarez ATL, SS, 21.0 – Alvarez was one of my top deep league, late round FYPD targets, finishing his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “He doesn’t jump off the screen, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 190 pounds, and he looks like a player out there.” He backed up my evaluation of him with another strong year in his first full season of pro ball, slashing .284/.395/.391 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 17.4%/13.2% K%/BB% in 116 games at High-A. The upside isn’t high with an average at best power/speed combo, and he’s not a particularly good defensive player, but the guy can hit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/15/72/.271/.337/.421/12
772) Michael Arroyo SEA, SS, 19.5 – Arroyo was an 18 year old at Single-A and put up a 118 wRC+ in 57 games. He looks like a seasoned vet at the dish, and is the type who jumps out immediately when you watch him hit. He’s completely locked in and makes hitting a baseball look easy. The rest of his profile is a little lacking though. His slash line isn’t as impressive as the wRC+, slashing .234/.389/.373 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.0%/13.6% K%/BB%. He doesn’t jump off the screen at 5’10” without big raw power or speed, and he’s not a particularly good defensive player. Without big upside, and without the plus glove to get him on the field, I’m hesitant to really go after him, although I don’t doubt this guy will hit at any level. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 79/18/76/.277/.344/.431/6
773) Cole Carrigg COL, C/SS/OF, 21.11 – Selected 65th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Carrigg was one of the top pro debut breakouts in his class. After destroying rookie ball (176 wRC+ in 13 games), he kept it going at Single-A, slashing .326/.376/.554 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 19.8%/6.9% K%/BB% in 23 games. It’s nice to see that level of production considering he didn’t play in one of the toughest conferences (Mountain West). He doesn’t have big power with only 7 homers in his 133 game college career, but at 6’3”, 200 pounds, you don’t have to squint too hard to see his ability to develop more as he ages. He also got caught stealing more than optimal in college and doesn’t walk a ton, but he can be a fun jack of all trades type who plays all over the field. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/14/68/.263/.319/.411/16
774) AJ Ewing NYM, 2B, 19.8 – Selected 134th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Ewing got dinged because of questionable power potential, but he’s not a small guy at a relatively strong 6’0”, and he hits the ball hard with a vicious lefty swing, so I’m not sure why that got put on him. He had a strong pro debut with a 161 wRC+, 0 homers (14.3% GB%), 1 steal, and a 28.6%/23.8% K%/BB% in 7 games. He has a good feel to hit, mature approach, above average speed, and more power than he is given credit for. He has a chance to be quite good. He makes for a great underrated FYPD target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/79/.265/.336/.438/16
775) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10 – Selected 50th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Zanetello had the type of rough pro debut that gives me some pause. He slashed .139/.311/.222 with 0 homers, 5 steals, and a 33.3%/20.0% K%/BB% in 12 games at rookie ball. It’s not so bad where I’m taking him off my draft list, but it’s bad enough where he would have to fall to me. The upside is most certainly there at a long and lean 6’2”, 190 pounds with double plus athleticism and a potentially plus power/speed combo. His upside is up there with almost anyone’s in this draft. He was already on the risky side when he got drafted, and the pro debut made him a whole lot riskier. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 73/18/71/.238/319/.427/21
776) Brandon Winokur MIN, SS/OF, 19.3 – Selected 82nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’5”, 210 pound Winokur has double plus power potential, and he’s also an excellent athlete with plus run times. He had no issue showing off the big power in his pro debut with 4 homers in 17 games in rookie ball, but it came with a terrible 32.4%/5.6% K%/BB%. He also had very high groundball rates with a 53.5% GB%, and despite the speed, he was 0 for 1 on the bases, so considering his size, I’m not sure we should expect big steal totals. There is very clearly still rawness in his game, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 67/24/79/.236/.312/.442/7
777) Orion Kerkering PHI, Setup, 23.0 – Kerkering doesn’t look all that close to the closer job with a great bullpen in Philly, but he showed elite back end reliever potential in his 3 IP MLB debut. He gave up 0 earned with a 6/2 K/BB on the back of a 97.8 MPH sinker and plus sweeper. He was excellent in the minors with a 1.51 ERA and 79/12 K/BB in 53.2 IP. He’s really never shown major control issues in the minors, which combined with his level of stuff, is a very exciting profile. 2023 Projection: 3/3.47/1.19/69/5 saves in 55 IP
778) John Brebbia CHW, Closer Committee, 33.10 – Chicago added a few relievers to compete with Brebbia for the closer role. He’s been a good reliever since 2017 and that continued last year with a 3.99 ERA and 29.2%/8.7% K%/BB% in 38.1 IP (a lat injury knocked out a couple months of his season). The 94.5 MPH fastball is plus with a .253 xwOBA and 29.7% whiff%, but the slider is average to above average with mediocre whiff rates (25.6% whiff%). 2024 Projection: 3/3.56/1.23/70/15 saves in 60 IP
779) Jordan Leasure CHW, Closer Committee, 25.7 – Chicago’s closer job is wide open, and Leasure is definitely a candidate to win it. He followed up a strong AFL with a strong spring, and he has the big stuff with an upper 90’s fastball to profile in that closer role. 2024 Projection: 4/3.72/1.26/70/5 saves in 60 IP
780) Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Gil looks like he won the 5th starter job while Cole is on the shelf, but he’s going to have to pitch well to hold it, and I don’t completely trust him with poor control. The stuff is big though and he has a job, so he’s worth a flier. 2024 Projection: 4/4.38/1.36/102 in 90 IP
781) Yariel Rodriguez TOR, RHP, 27.3 – Toronto signed Rodriguez to a 4 year, $32 million contract, which is definitely a big enough commitment where they are expecting him to be an impact pitcher, but the only question is what role he will pitch in. It seems to me he will most likely pitch in a bullpen role, which limits his fantasy appeal. He was used as a reliever in Japan, and he dominated in that role with a 1.15 ERA and 60/18 K/BB in 54.2 IP. He has prototypical high leverage reliever stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider. He also has the below average control of a typical late inning reliever, and the lack of a true third pitch, which makes the pen his most likely role. 2024 Projection: 4/3.51/1.23/65 in 60 IP
782) Jose Soriano LAA, Setup, 25.6 – Soriano looked to be in good position before LA signed Stephenson, but now he looks to be 3rd in line. He most certainly has closer stuff with two upper 90’s fastballs (98.8 MPH 4-seamer and 96.6 MPH sinker) and a double plus, bat missing curve (.236 xwOBA with a 47.1% whiff%). It resulted in a 3.64 ERA with a 30.4%/12.4% K%/BB% in 42 IP, His 36.2% whiff% is in the true elite zone. Soriano has the strikeout upside to provide real fantasy value in a setup role, and he will likely be next in line by at least 2025. 2024 Projection: 4/3.51/1.26/85/4 saves in 65 IP Update: Soriano is being stretched out as a starter, but there is no rotation spot for him, so it might just be in preparation for if they need reinforcements during the season. Still adds a nice little upside wrinkle for him
783) DJ Herz WAS, LHP, 23.3 – I’m a sucker for a bat missing lefty with a funky delivery, and while Herz will most likely end up in the bullpen, he has the opportunity to be a high leverage reliever if he does end up there. Washington’s rotation and organizational pitching depth is also nearly barren, so they may give him every opportunity to start. He put up a 3.43 ERA with a 32.4% K% in 94.1 IP at Double-A led by a bat missing low to mid 90’s fastball, plus changeup, and average breaking ball. It comes with a 13.7% BB%, which is where the bullpen risk comes in, but you have to aim for upside in fantasy, and Herz’ elite K rates throughout his entire minor league career has upside written all over them. 2024 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/51 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.48/1.22/88/15 saves in 65 IP
784) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP
785) Nick Anderson KCR, Closer Committee, 33.9 – McMillon would be my bet for the closer of the future job, and Anderson might be my bet for the closer of the present job, but his injury last year makes me hesitant to lean into that opinion too hard. He got shutdown in July with a shoulder strain and was only able to make it back for a few rehab appearances in the minors at the end of the year. He pitched well before going down with the injury with a 3.06 ERA and 25.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 35.1 IP. The fastball sat 94.3 MPH and the curve was elite with a .183 xwOBA and 40.2% whiff%. He’s been battling injuries for a few years now, so he’s a major injury risk, and he’s already 33 years old. I would be more comfortable targeting him if he looks good in Spring. 2024 Projection: 2/3.50/1.18/52/10 saves in 50 IP
786) Erik Swanson TOR, Setup, 30.7 – Swanson is next man up in Toronto and his 29 Holds in 2023 was 4th best in baseball. He mostly backed up his 2022 breakout (1.68 ERA with a 34%/4.9% K%/BB%) with a 2.97 ERA and 28.6%/8.0% K%/BB% in 66.2 IP, but he wasn’t quite as good in multiple areas. The 93.7 MPH fastball and slider both took a step back, so he went to his plus splitter more than ever with a 47.5% usage. I think he’s closer to the guy he was in 2023 than 2022, but that is a still a damn good reliever. 2024 Projection: 4/3.31/1.12/75/7 saves in 65 IP
787) Kevin Ginkel ARI, Setup, 30.0 – Ginkel is next man up in Arizona, and he had a strong year in 2023 with a 2.48 ERA and 27.5%/9.4% K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. He was also great in the playoffs with a 0.00 ERA in 11.2 IP. The fastball sits 95.7 MPH and the slider notched a 40.4% whiff% and .190 xwOBA. It’s as standard of a back of the bullpen profile as it gets. 2024 Projection: 6/3.30/1.18/72/8 saves in 65 IP
788) Griffin Jax MIN, Setup, 29.4 – Jax backed up his 2022 breakout with another strong year in 2023, putting up a 3.86 ERA with a 24.8%/6.9% K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. He notched 23 holds and 4 saves. The stuff got even bigger with a career high 96.5 MPH fastball, to go along with a plus sweeper and changeup. He’s likely next man up in Minnesota. 2024 Projection: 6/3.51/1.16/68/5 saves in 65 IP
789) DJ Stewart NYM, OF, 30.4 – Stewart is a strong side of a platoon bat at best, and not in the majors by the 2nd half at worst. He went on a heater in mid August to close out the season with 10 homers and a .901 OPS in 35 games. He’s gone on these type of benders before though, and the rough hit tool always brings him back down to earth (30.3% K% in 2023 with a .220 career BA). He’s a late round flier in deeper leagues. 2024 Projection: 34/11/39/.230/.315/.430/1
790) Richie Palacios TBR, OF, 26.11 – Palacios is likely a part time player for Tampa. He has plus plate skills with average raw power, a low launch and above average speed. It’s a low upside profile to begin with, and I don’t see a real path to full time playing time unless he really blows up. 2024 Projection: 33/7/36/.261/.332/.395/7
791) Gavin Sheets CHW, OF/1B, 27.11 – The bottom fell out from under Sheets in 2023 with a 61 wRC+ in 344 PA, but his 88.1 MPH EV, 16.9 degree launch, and 19.2% K% make it seem like it was just a particularly bad year. With Chicago looking to sell off pieces, he could end up with a nearly full time job by default. 2024 Projection: 36/13/47/.236/.308/.421/1
792) Joe Jimenez ATL, Setup, 28.3 – Jimenez followed up his breakout 2022 with another excellent season, putting up a 3.04 ERA with a 30.7%/5.9% K%/BB% in 56.1 IP. It earned him a 3 year, $26 million contract to stay in Atlanta. He proved the control gains were real, and the plus fastball/slider combo was in full effect with a 95.3 MPH 4-seamer and a slider that notched a 45.5% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 3/3.31/1.17/77/2 saves in 58 IP
793) Seranthony Dominguez PHI, Setup, 29.4 – Dominguez didn’t have a good year in 2023 with a 3.78 ERA and 21.5%/9.8% K%/BB% in 50 IP, but the lack of K’s is probably just reliever variance with a 28% whiff%. The stuff is still nasty with a plus 97.5 sinker and a double plus slider that notched a 46.5% whiff%. He dropped down the pecking order last year, but he can easily rise back up it. 2024 Projection: 4/3.47/1.23/67/2 saves in 55 IP
794) Luke Little CHC, Setup, 23.7 – Little made his MLB debut in September, and he was an absolute terror with a 0.00 ERA and 40%/13.3% K%/BB% in 6.2 IP. He’s a 6’8”, 220 pound lefty with a 96.6 MPH 4-seamer and a double plus sweeper that notched a 56% whiff% in the majors. He dominated the upper minors too with that same profile. It’s not going to be long before he climbs Chicago’s bullpen pecking order, and he has a chance to be an elite high leverage reliever for a long time. 2024 Projection: 3/3.46/1.28/85/1 save in 60 IP
795) Reggie Crawford SFG, LHP, 23.6 – Crawford was considered a project when San Francisco drafted him 30th overall in 2022, and he remains a project. It looks like SF is developing him mostly as a pitcher, but they are taking that development super slow, not eclipsing 2 IP in any outing. He threw 19 IP all season battling mononucleosis in the beginning of the year and an oblique injury at the end of the year. He’s 6’4”, 235 pounds with a fire upper 90’s fastball and the curve is plus, resulting in a 39% K% against lower minors hitters, but he seems a long way off from being considered a starter. The changeup lags behind and the control is spotty with a 12.4% BB%. If you want to a pure upside shot, Crawford is your guy, but a late inning reliever might be his most likely outcome at the moment. Or more likely SF will turn him into a 2-3 inning opener/follower type that they love so much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 7/3.87/1.32/129 in 120 IP
796) Bowden Francis TOR, RHP, 27.11 – Francis has won a rotation spot in Toronto’s rotation, but he’s only in flier territory for me. He got hit really hard last year in a bullpen role, and was lucky with a .297 wOBA vs. .370 xwOBA against in 36.1 IP. The control is good, so maybe he can be a #4 starter, but I also think Tiedemann is taking that 5th starter job when they deem him ready (and he’s basically ready). 2024 Projection: 7/4.30/1/30/115 in 130 IP
797) Jakob Junis MIL, RHP, 31.7 – Signing with the Brewers give Junis a chance to lock in a starting role. He thrived with San Francisco in a multi inning relief role, putting up a 3.87 ERA and 26.2%/5.7% K%/BB% in 86 IP over 40 outings. The sinker velocity hit a career high by far 93.7 MPH and he threw his above average slider more than ever at a 62.5% usage rate, leading to a career high K rate. It’s doubtful he can keep up that level of production in a traditional starting role, and Milwaukee could easily shift him back to the bullpen if it’s not working out early in the rotation, so the leash isn’t going to be long. 2024 Projection: 6/4.23/1.34/113 in 120 IP
798) Xavier Edwards MIA, 2B/OF, 24.8 – I try not to be a slave to exit velocity, especially for prospects with good complimentary skills, but Edwards’ exit velocities are low enough to scare me off. He put up a 82.4 MPH EV in 93 games at Triple-A and a 82.2 MPH EV in 84 PA in his MLB debut. The contact rates and plate approach were elite in Triple-A with a 6.9%/12.0% K%/BB%, but he wasn’t able to maintain that in the majors with a 16.7%/3.6% K%/BB%. And he’s fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint speed, but that isn’t really lightning fast. There is obviously a path to impact fantasy production with a plus hit/speed combo, but I’m staying away from him as anything other than a flier with those horrific exit velocities. 2024 Projection: 49/4/32/.263/.326/.362/19 Prime Projection: 76/8/51/.277/.338/.385/32
799) Kumar Rocker TEX, RHP, 24.5 – Rocker underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023 which will likely knock him out until the 2nd half of 2024. It’s a major bummer as he was actually looking really good with a 3.86 ERA and 37.8%/6.3% K%/BB% in 28 IP at High-A. A high mid 90’s fastball with a bat missing slider is his game when healthy, but he’s struggled to remain healthy. A bullpen role could be in his future if his arm can’t handle a starter’s workload. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.78/1.26/73 in 65 IP
800) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 25.6 – When everything is clicking, Frasso looks like a near ace at an athletic 6’5” with a deceptive righty delivery, fire stuff, and above average control. But everything isn’t always clicking for him as he ran extremely hot and cold this year, his stuff can be up and down, he’s been very injury prone in his career, and 93 IP was a career high by far (60 IP was previous career high in 2018). He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup that flashes plus. It was good for a 3.77 ERA and 26.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 93 IP at mostly Double-A. His ultimate role is still very much in the air, and in an organization that grows pitching prospects on trees and can sign/acquire high priced pitchers whenever they want, a bullpen role seems likely in the first couple years of his career. 2024 Projection: 3/4.39/1.34/58 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/150 in 140 IP
801) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 23.3 – Espino underwent shoulder surgery in early May with a 12-14 month timetable. That puts his best case return date in the 2nd half of 2024, and shoulder surgeries scare me more than elbow surgeries. I love buying the elbow surgery discount, but I’m not nearly as gung-ho about the shoulder surgery discount. At full health, Espino has elite fantasy upside which he displayed in 2022 with a ridiculous 51.5%/5.9% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP before going down with a knee injury that turned into the shoulder injury. The stuff is nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider. If he wasn’t so filthy with insane upside, I would go way off him, but he’s too good to completely write off. 2024 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 4/3.72/1.26/70 in 65 IP Update: Espino underwent another shoulder surgery, and this one has to kill his value. A bullpen role seems most likely, and that is if he can even get healthy at all
802) Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 26.2 – Nelson has looked better this spring with crisp stuff and good results, and he’s now looking like the 5th starter in Arizona. He was still terrible last year though with a 5.31 ERA and 15.5% K%, so even two steps forward from that will still be not all that great. He’s only a flier. 2024 Projection: 8/4.45/1.37/125 in 140 IP
803) Luis Ortiz PIT, RHP, 25.2 – Ortiz rededicated himself this off-season after a rough 2023, and he looks better this spring with his stuff back up a tick. He’s still unproven and not really a target for me in most leagues, but he now looks locked into a rotation spot, and is at least worth cracking this list, which he didn’t crack in the first version of it in February. 2024 Projection: 6/4.36/1.35/116 in 120 IP
804) Cole Irvin BAL, LHP, 30.2 – Irvin’s velocity was up earlier in spring, but it’s back down now. He’s a back end guy 2024 Projection: 7/4.28/1.31/123 in 140 IP
805) Griff McGarry PHI, RHP, 24.10 – McGarry just can’t improve his control with a 15.6% BB% in 54.2 IP at Double-A, which makes it very likely at this point that he will be a reliever, but he has the type of stuff to be an impact reliever. The fastball sits mid to upper 90’s, the slider is plus, and the cutter and changeup are good pitches too. It resulted in a 3.13 ERA and 32% K% at the level. If you’re hunting for possible high K, high leverage relievers, McGarry isn’t a bad bet, and it’s still possible something clicks with his control to remain a starter. 2024 Projection: 2/4.03/1.37/56 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.61/1.28/77 in 62 IP
806) Adalberto Mondesi FRA, SS, 28.8 – Mondesi had multiple setbacks in his attempt to return in 2023 from surgery to repair a torn ACL, and he was eventually shut down in August without playing a single game. He was already a wild card type player with an extreme amount of talent and an extreme amount of rawness, and now he is an even a bigger wildcard. I can’t imagine there is a team out there who is just going to hand him a starting job, and he hasn’t even proven he’s fully healed from the surgery. I don’t hate him as a last pick in the draft flier in any league size, because on the off chance he is healthy, the upside is super fun, but the risk is off the charts. 2024 Projection: 37/7/33/.236/.287/.405/15
807) Dominic Fletcher CHW, OF, 26.7 – The trade to Chicago opens up a path to playing time for Fletcher, but he’s still going to have to fight for it, and he’s a low upside fantasy player. The hit tool is solid, but it’s not great with a 18.6% K% at Triple-A and 21.6% K% in 102 PA in the majors. The game power is below average with low flyball rates (29.5% FB% at Triple-A and 8.5 degree launch in the majors), the speed is below average with a 26.5 ft/sec sprint,, and he struggles vs. lefties. He hits the ball relatively hard, but a 89.1 MPH EV at AAA and 89.7 MPH EV in the majors isn’t hard to enough to overcome everything else in his profile. He’s mostly produced everywhere he’s been, and that includes the majors with a 113 wRC+, but an above average hit tool with a below average everything else isn’t what I look for in fantasy. 2024 Projection: 41/9/41/.250/.317/.409/4
808) Hector Neris CHC, Setup, 34.9 – I don’t think Neris is going to steal Alzolay’s job, but it certainly tightens the leash, and he may vulture some saves even if Alzolay is pitching well. Neris had the best surface stat year of his career in 2023 with a 1.71 ERA and 28.2%/11.4% K%/BB% in 68.1 IP, but as you can see from the K/BB, the miniscule ERA was mostly due to good luck with a 3.35 xERA and 4.45 xFIP. His stuff was down with the fastball dropping 1.3 MPH to 93 MPH and the splitter dropping 2.2 MPH to 83.9 MPH, but both pitches were still very effective, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about that. I wouldn’t put him in the elite setup man tier, but he’s been a very good setup man for awhile now, and his 31 Holds in 2023 was tied for the league lead. 2024 Projection: 5/3.49/1.16/76/8 saves in 66 IP
809) Joel Payamps MIL, Setup, 30.0 – Payamps had a breakout season with a 2.55 ERA and 26.8%/5.9% K%/BB% in 70.2 IP. He did it by massively improving his slider and 4-seamer with an extra tick on the fastball and 2 extra ticks on the slider. His previous career high K rate was 18.5%, and it’s not like anything is wildly different in his profile, so I do think factoring in some regression is prudent. He seems to be next man up in Milwaukee with 27 holds in 2023, but I don’t his hold on that job is super secure with other good options behind him. 2024 Projection: 4/3.25/1.17/65/3 saves in 65 IP
810) Tyler Rogers SFG, Setup, 33.3 – Rogers seems to be next man up in San Francisco with 30 holds and 2 saves in 2023. He’s an absolute marvel, thriving with a submarine, knuckle dragging delivery that “fires” an 82.8 MPH sinker that notched a negative 4 degree launch, to go along with a slider that notched a .219 xwOBA. He’s not a big K guy with a 19.4% K%, but the control is plus (6.1%) and he induces weak contact (84.4 MPH EV against). It was good for a 3.04 ERA in 74 IP. 2024 Projection: 4/3.28/1.18/57/5 saves in 70 IP
811) Will Vest DET, Setup, 28.10 – The back of Detroit’s bullpen is far from locked in with studs, so Vest could creep towards the closer role as the season progresses. He broke out in 2023 with a 2.98 ERA and 28.1%/6.5% K%/BB% in 48.1 IP. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH and was a plus pitch with a .288 xwOBA against, but the secondaries don’t miss quite enough bats to get really get excited for him. 2024 Projection: 3/3.42/1.17/62/4 saves in 55 IP
812) Emilio Pagan CIN, Setup, 32.11 – Pagan is likely next man up in Cincy. His K rate dipped in 2023 with a 23.8% K%, but it didn’t stop him from putting up the 2nd best ERA of his career with a 2.99 ERA. The fastball sits 95.8 MPH, thesplitter is a whiff machine with a 41.4% whiff%, and the cutter induced weak contact with a 86.7 MPH EV against. 2024 Projection: 4/3.71/1.13/68/7 saves in 65 IP
813) Colin Barber HOU, OF, 23.4 – The upside might not be loud, but Barber keeps quietly producing everywhere he goes. This year he did at Double-A with 11 homers, 5 steals, a 22.7%/14.0% K%/BB%, and a 111 wRC+ in 79 games. He has a mature plate approach and the ability to lift the ball with an average power/speed combo. Nothing to write home about, but he can easily end up an average big leaguer with contributions in every category. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.264/.337/.432/10
814) Jose Rodriguez MIN, OF, 18.10 – Rodriguez didn’t have a huge year in his stateside rookie ball debut with a 91 wRC+ in 49 games, but he laid down a foundation of skills to set up a future breakout. And keep in mind he will still be 18 years old at the start of 2024. He showed a good feel to hit with a 19.6% K%, plus power potential with 6 homers, and the ability to lift the ball with a 49% FB%. He hits the ball hard and he’s a strong dude at a powerful 6’2”. If he continues to show the solid hit tool and lift, big years are definitely coming. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/27/86/.258/.327/.473/3
815) Marco Vargas NYM, SS, 18.10 – Vargas had an excellent year in the DSL in 2022 (139 wRC+), and everything transferred completely to stateside rookie ball, slashing .275/.432/.389 with 2 homers, 13 steals, and a 15.2%/21.2% K%/BB% in 54 games. He’s 6’0”, 170 pounds with a smooth and easy lefty swing that has natural loft. There should be at least average power at peak, and I think above average power is in play too. He’s not a burner, but he should at least contribute in steals as well. And of course what you are buying is the plus hit tool and plate approach. He reminds me of Juan Brito a bit, and I think Vargas has a tick more upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/18/66/.273/.351/.432/12
816) AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B/OF, 22.8 – I’ve always been a fan of AJ Vukovich because he’s a big guy and an excellent athlete, and he finally starting popping in 2023, slashing .263/.333/.485 with 24 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.4%/9.1% K%/BB% in 115 games at Double-A. He wasn’t a great 3B, so it’s very interesting to see he played 60 games in CF. That speaks to his level of speed and athleticism, and it gives him another route to get his bat in the lineup. The hit tool is below average, the plate approach isn’t great, and the groundball rates are slightly higher than optimal, but I love betting on an athlete like this. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 67/21/75/.248/.317/.436/11
817) Ruben Santana ARI, 3B, 19.1 – Santana hit well in the DSL in 2022 with a 142 wRC+, and he backed that up stateside in 2023, slashing .316/.389/.487 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 23.7%/8.1% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s a strong kid who hits the ball hard and is an excellent athlete. The hit tool and plate approach still need refinement, but this is a nice high upside dart throw as you get into the later rounds of your off-season prospect draft. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/23/77/.248/.321/.445/15
818) Jacob Berry MIA, 1B/3B, 22.11 – All of the fears over Berry’s poor pro debut in 2022 were proved correct with another disappointing showing in 2023. He slashed .233/.284/.388 with 9 homers, 10 steals, and a 20.5%/5.3% K%/BB% in 107 games split between High-A and Double-A. The only saving grace is that he was actually better at Double-A to close out the season with 5 homers and a decent .743 OPS in 28 games, and he kept that mediocrity going in the AFL with 2 homers and a .770 OPS in 17 games. Seeing how far he’s fallen just one year after being drafted 6th overall is wild, but it’s deserved. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/15/71/.257/.318/.420/4
819) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 20.0 – Cho had a perfectly fine year at Single-A with a 114 wRC+, 7 homers, 32 steals, and a 21.7%/14.2% K%/BB% in 105 games. He has a mature plate approach, he hits the ball fairly hard, and he’s a good athlete. The 50% GB% is the biggest issue with his profile, but it was much better last year in rookie ball (34.7%), so I don’t think it’s going to be a fatal flaw for him. Lars Nootbaar could be a good comp here. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/17/72/.262/.341/.428/15
820) Yu-Min Lin ARI, LHP, 20.9 – Lin has done nothing but dominate pro ball at an impressively young age for the past two years. He put up a 3.34 ERA with a 32.1%/9.3% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP at High-A as a 19-year-old, and then to celebrate his 20th birthday, Arizona sent him to Double-A where he put up a 4.28 ERA with a 24.7%/10% K%/BB% in 61 IP. A plus changeup is his best pitch, he has a diverse pitch mix (fastball, change, slider, curve, cutter) and he has a deceptive and athletic lefty delivery. The problem is the the fastball is below average in the very low 90’s, he’s pretty small at a skinny 5’11”, and deceptive plus changeup guys have often dominated the minors before getting crushed in the majors. We already saw the numbers take a step back at Double-A. An uptick in velocity would do wonders for him, and at only 20 years old with his build, I would bet on it rising at least a bit. #4 starter is his most reasonable projection. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.14/1.30/155 in 160 IP
821) Owen Murphy ATL, RHP, 20.6 – Murphy doesn’t stand out physically when watching him and his stuff isn’t really standout either. He throws a low 90’s fastball with two really good breaking balls in his slider and curve. It resulted in a 4.72 ERA with a 29.6%/8.4% K%/BB% in 89.2 IP at mostly Single-A. He can really spin all of his pitches, so everything plays up, but he likely needs to become a plus control/command guy to be an impact fantasy starter, which I do think he has the ability to do. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.28/145 in 150 IP
822) Kyle Gibson STL, RHP, 36.5 – Gibson is an aging back end starter who put up a 5.05 ERA in 2022 and a 4.73 ERA in 2023. His control is above average with a 6.8% BB%, and I like his landing spot in St. Louis, so I don’t think a serviceable fantasy season is out of the question. 2024 Projection: 10/4.37/1.33/140 in 170 IP
823) Kyle Hendricks CHC, RHP, 34.4 – Hendricks bounced back from down seasons in 2021 and 2022 with a 3.74 ERA and 16.1%/4.7% K%/BB% in 137 IP. It’s damn impressive he can put up seasons like this with a 87.8 MPH fastball. It just goes to show how far control/command can take you. 2024 Projection: 8/4.18/1.25/105 in 150 IP
824) Alec Marsh KCR, RHP, 25.10 – Marsh wasn’t good in his MLB debut with a 5.69 ERA and 24.9%/11.4% K%/BB% in 74.1 IP, but he has the opportunity and strikeout upside to crack this list. His 29.5% whiff% was excellent, and he did it with a 6 pitch mix where his 5 most used pitches all miss bats (led by a sweeper that notched a 45% whiff%). The velocity is also good with a 94.2 MPH fastball. If he can improve his control, there is high K, mid rotation-ish starter upside. The downside is that he’s a reliever. 2024 Projection: 5/4.44/1.41/128 in 120 IP
825) Matt Canterino MIN, RHP, 26.3 – Canterino returned from Tommy John surgery this spring and he looks completely healthy with the potential for 3 plus pitches. The stuff is truly filthy. He definitely looks reliever-ish out there, but Minnesota does not have a ton of rotation depth, so he could certainly find his way into the rotation as well. He should be back on your radar at the very least. 2024 Projection: 3/4.21/1.34/66 in 60 IP
826) Alex Cobb SFG, RHP, 36.6 – SF picked up Cobb’s $10 million option, so they are obviously hoping he can still be an effective pitcher, but a 36 year old coming off serious hip surgery that is not something I’m buying into. His upside is pretty low to begin with with a 20.3% K% in 2023. He pitched well overall with a 3.87 ERA and 5.7% BB%, and the stuff is good with a 94.5 MPH sinker. If he were fully healthy, I would rank him higher, but the October hip surgery combined with his age has me staying far away. 2024 Projection: 6/4.07/1.33/90 in 100 IP
827) Wilmer Flores DET, RHP, 23.1 – I loved Flores coming into the season, but he wasn’t able to build on his excellent 2022 with all of his numbers taking a step back, most notably his control. He had a 3.90 ERA with a 24.3%/9.5% K%/BB% in 80.2 IP at Double-A after putting up a 3.01 ERA with a 27.5%/6.1% K%/BB% in 83.2 IP at the level last year. The plus control was a major reason why I liked him so much, so seeing that back up has him dropping for me, but he’s still a good pitching prospect with a mid 90’s fastball, plus breaking ball and a developing cutter. 2024 Projection: 3/4.34/1.36/57 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.05/1.31/150 in 150 IP
828) Haydn McGeary CHC, 1B, 24.6 – McGeary is a big man at 6’4”, 235 pounds with big raw power and a mature plate approach. He slashed .255/.382/.435 with 16 homers, 4 steals, and a 23.8%/15.2% K%/BB% in 104 games at Double-A. The flyball rates have been low throughout his career, and while he’s been able to raise it to a decent 36.9%, I’m concerned it will ultimately cap his power upside without the hit tool, speed or defensive value to really make up for it. He’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 47/15/54/.252/.338/.442/2
829) Wade Meckler SFG, OF, 23.11 – Meckler’s plate approach was far too mature for the minor leagues in his first full year of pro ball. He started the year at High-A, and he didn’t hit a road bump all the way through Triple-A with a 19.6%/17.6% K%/BB% and 144 wRC+ in 24 games. It all fell apart in the majors though with a 39.1%/9.4% K%/BB% in 64 PA. His power is double below average with a 81.4 MPH EV in MLB and a 83.8 MPH EV at Triple-A, and while he’s fast with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint, he’s only an average to slightly above average base stealer. Considering the upside isn’t super high, the plate approach being so terrible in the majors, even in small sample, scares me a bit, and he’s in San Francisco’s platoon factory. 2024 Projection: 26/4/21/.247/.323/.376/6 Prime Projection: 66/10/48/.263/.342/.401/13
830) Yeison Morrobel TEX, OF, 20.4 – Morrobel’s season ended after just 37 games, but he was hitting well with a 110 wRC+, 1 homer, 12 steals, and a 22.5%/14.6% K%/BB% at Single-A. He’s an athletic guy at 6’2”, 170 pounds with a solid plate approach, nice lefty swing, and speed. He needs to add more raw power and likely needs to start lifting the ball more as well, but there is a nice collection of skills and athleticism here. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/17/72/.262/.331/.422/18
831) Yasser Mercedes MIN, OF, 19.5 – Mercedes put up a cover your eyes 57 wRC+ in 25 games in stateside rookie ball, but a lot of that had to do with a .211 BABIP. His contact rates were fine (21.9% K%), he hit for power (4 homers), and he stole some bags (4 steals despite a .248 OBP). The raw talent at a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds is still fully there with an electric righty swing. He needs plenty of refinement, but I’m still buying the upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/23/78/.246/.317/.448/18
832) Austin Shenton TBR, 1B/3B, 26.4 – I’m not sure Shenton is every going to find a pocket to lock in full time playing time with Yandy at 1B, Paredes at 3B, and Caminero, Mead, Isaac, Carson Williams, Braden Taylor and more all on the way. But his play in the upper minors warranted a decent spot on this list, slashing .304/.423/.584 with 29 homers and a 26.8%/16.3% in 134 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. I’m not sure the raw power is quite huge enough to make up for the hit tool issues, but the plate approach is mature and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. He has a chance to work his way into a strong side of a platoon role down the line. 2024 Projection: 16/4/19/.230/.307/.398/0 Prime Projection: 43/13/45/.242/.323/.424/0
833) Malcom Nunez PIT, 1B, 23.1 – Nunez didn’t have a good year at Triple-A with a 69 wRC+ in 67 games, but he’s knocking on the door of the bigs and Pitt has a long term opening at 1B/DH, so I don’t want to write him off. Down years happen in baseball, he’s been a very good hitter throughout his pro career, and he battled a shoulder injury this year which certainly impacted his production. He hits it relatively hard and he’s never shown any major strikeout issues (23.6% K% this year). He should get his shot at some point in 2024. 2024 Projection: 18/6/23/.235/.301/.417/0 Prime Projection: 43/15/49/.251/.326/.447/1
834) Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B/3B, 24.4 – I was hesitant to buy into a 22 year old college bat, and that proved prudent as Melendez showed major hit tool and plate approach issues in 2023 with a 34.3%/7.3% K%/BB% in 96 games split between High-A and Double-A. The problems got worse at Double-A and he wasn’t great in the AFL with a .229 BA and 2 homers in 21 games. But he still cracks this list because the power is massive. He jacked 30 homers with low groundballs rates. If he can improve his contact rates, he will mash, but if doesn’t, he’ll hit under the Gallo line. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 32/15/41/.226/.310/.450/1
835) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 24.5 – I always get a little sad when I think about Davis. He was a near elite prospect who got derailed by injuries, and making this list might be more nostalgia than anything else. He put up a 49 wRC+ with 4 homers in 62 games at Triple-A. The back injury has completely sapped his power. The 22.6%/8.6% K%/BB% and 9 steals actually weren’t bad, so if he can fully recover from his injuries and regain his power, there is hope for a bounce back. Forget regaining his former near elite prospect status, I’m just hoping he can get his career back on a reasonable track. 2024 Projection: 7/1/5/.220/.290/.387/1 Prime Projection: 39/10/41/.244/.308/.421/10
836) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 24.0 – Povich profiles as a back end starter with below average control and below average velocity. He put up a 4.87 ERA with a 33.4%/10.5% K%/BB% in 81.1 IP at Double-A, and a 5.36 ERA with a 26.9%/14.7% K%/BB% in 45.1 IP with the automated strike zone at Triple-A. The fastball sat 92.1 MPH and he uses a six pitch mix led by a plus changeup and curve. The high K rates keep him interesting for fantasy, but he will need to improve his command to reach his high K, mid rotation starter upside. 2024 Projection: 2/4.51/1.40/46 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.32/155 in 150 IP
837) Joey Cantillo CLE, LHP, 24.3 – Cantillo has solid stuff with a 93.5 MPH fastball, he misses bats with a changeup and slider that helped notch a 26.1% K% overall at Triple-A, and he’s close to the bigs, but the control is below average with a 12.9% BB% and he wasn’t all that great at Triple-A with a 4.64 ERA in 95 IP. Without taking a big step in control/command, he’s likely a back end guy. 2024 Projection: 2/4.55/1.40/46 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.27/1.34/150 in 150 IP
838) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 23.0 – Hjerpe’s velocity did not tick up this year like many hoped with him sitting in the high 80’s to low 90’s. He has the type of hjerpe jerky, sidearm lefty delivery to make it work, but that is still dangerously low. He also didn’t have the most impressive pro debut from a statistical or injury standpoint. He put up a 3.51 ERA with a 29.8%/14.6% K%/BB% in 41 IP and missed 4 months of the season after undergoing surgery to get loose bodies removed from his elbow. Low velocity, poor control, and injury risk is not the 3 headed monster you are looking for. At this point, a #4 starter seems like a reasonable upside projection for him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.31/163 in 160 IP
839) Thomas Harrington PIT, RHP, 22.8 – Harrington pitched well in the lower minors like an advanced college starter should, putting up a 3.53 ERA with a 27.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 127.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. A filthy, at least plus slider is his moneymaker, which he combines with a low to mid 90’s sinker and 4-seamer. As is, it’s likely a #4 starter profile. He’ll likely need to enter plus to double plus control/command territory to beat that projection, which I wouldn’t rule out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.29/142 in 150 IP
840) Alonzo Tredwell HOU, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 61st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Tredwell is 6’8”, 230 pounds with an athletic delivery and plus control. Just those 3 combination of skills makes him an unique and intriguing pitching prospect. He put up a 2.11 ERA with a 62/6 K/BB in 47 innings out of the pen in 2022 at UCLA, and then he was transitioned into the rotation this year where he put up a 3.57 ERA with a 51/12 K/BB in 45.1 IP before getting shutdown with back and rib injuries. The stuff doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a low to mid 90’s fastball, but he throws a legitimate 4 pitch mix (slider, curve, change), and everything plays up because of his control. If it all comes together, think something like Bailey Ober (not a direct comp). ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.20/150 in 150 IP
841) Caden Grice ARI, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 64th overall, Grice is a supreme athlete at 6’6”, 250 pounds with potential as both a pitcher and hitter (he put up a 1.029 OPS in 60 games in the ACC), but his future is very likely on the mound. He has all the makings of that prototypical mid rotation workhorse with a relatively athletic delivery, but he probably needs the fastball to tick up to get there. He currently sits in the low 90’s, and while it’s hard to predict a velocity increase, his two way player status and build seems to point towards a bump if he focuses solely on pitching. He also throws a good slider and changeup. It all led to a 3.35 ERA and 31.4%/10.2% K%/BB% in 78 IP. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.29/164 in 170 IP
842) Leonardo Bernal STL, C, 20.2 – Bernal’s power is going to have to tick up to become an impact fantasy catcher with only 3 homers in 78 games at Triple-A, and he’s already pretty thick, so there might not be a ton more coming. Everything else is there though with an advanced plate approach (17%/15.2% K%/BB%) and potentially plus catcher defense. I trust St. Louis to develop hitters like him, so he’s in a perfect organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/14/59/.267/.338/.412/3
843) Blake Mitchell KCR, C, 19.2 – Selected 8th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Mitchell got drafted so highly mostly because of his defensive prowess. He’s a good defensive catcher with an elite arm. He’s not chopped liver at the dish either with a powerful lefty swing at 6’1”. 200 pounds that projects for plus power at peak, but it comes with plenty of swing and miss. His 13 game pro debut in rookie ball showed the rawness of his offensive game with 0 homers, a .147 BA, and 26.9% K%, but the 32.7% BB% saved the debut from being a complete disaster. He projects to be that classic plus defense, low BA slugging catcher. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/21/69/.244/.330/.443/4
844) Jacob Gonzalez CHW, SS, 21.10 – Selected 15th overall in the 2023 Draft, Gonzalez is a safe, quick moving college bat who doesn’t have big upside. He’s a SS who has an excellent plate approach and bat to ball skills. He had a .327 BA with a 28/35 K/BB in 54 SEC games. An up the middle defender who gets the bat on the ball is probably the safest profile there is. He has a bit of an awkward lefty swing, and while he’s 6’2”, 200 pounds, there isn’t big power with only 10 homers this year. He also has below average speed. His lack of upside was on full display in his pro debut, slashing .207/.308/.261 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 16.8%/14.6% K%/BB% in 30 games at Single-A. He should move fast through the system and is a high probability big leaguer, but he’s not a fantasy target. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/17/67/.263/.332/.418/4
845) Colton Ledbetter TBR, OF, 22.5 – Selected 55th overall, the 6’2”, 205 pound Ledbetter has that classic solid across the board profile. He transferred into the SEC from the Southern League for his junior year and he had no issues against the superior competition, slashing .320/.452/.574 with 12 homers, 17 steals, and a 36/47 K/BB in 53 games. The profile also completely transferred into pro ball with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 21.6%/13.5% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. The raw power/speed combo is only about average, which caps his upside, but Ledbetter can do a little bit of everything on the baseball field. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/15/69/.267/.334/.422/15
846) Travis Honeyman STL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 90th overall, the 6’2”, 190 pound Honeyman makes a ton of contact, hits the ball fairly hard, and has above average speed. That is a strong combination of skills, and it led to an excellent season in the ACC, slashing .304/.383/.534 with 6 homers, 10 steals, and a 11.5% 7.1% K%/BB% in 39 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter in college, but his frame definitely has room to add power, and he also hit 4 homers with a .930 OPS in 24 games in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022. I like Honeyman a lot, and he makes for an excellent underrated FYPD target. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/73/.264/.321/.422/17
847) Carson Rucker DET, 3B/SS, 19.7 – Selected 107th overall, Rucker is 6’2”, 193 pounds with a big righty swing that should produce plus power at peak, and he’s a good athlete with above average speed. The hit tool was a bit of a question coming into the draft, but it looked solid in his pro debut with a 22.0%/14.6% K%/BB% in 9 games at stateside rookie. He also hit 1 homer with 4 steals, which was good for a 110 wRC+. He has the upside to become a legit hyped prospect. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.256/.330/.446/10
848) Adolfo Sanchez CIN, OF, 17.6 – The 6’2”, 175 pound Sanchez has one of those sweet lefty swings that just oozes offensive potential. He’s known for his great feel to hit, and when his power naturally ticks up, it’s going to be easy above average power at the very least. He’s a good athlete, but he’s not a burner, so something like Marcelo Mayer is the prospect ceiling here. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 84/24/86/.273/.345/.462/9
849) Joswa Lugo LAA, SS, 17.2 – Lugo is already a relatively physical presence in the box at 6’2”, 175 pounds, and he’s still only 16 years old as of this writing. He has easy plus power at peak, and he does it with a smooth, effortless, and controlled righty swing. The hit/power combo has plus potential at peak, and he’s a good athlete too. He definitely has middle of the order, complete hitter potential. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 82/26/86/.273/.341/.471/8
850) Luis Cova MIA, OF, 17.2 – I didn’t really love Cova’s swing in my first run through the international prospects rankings, and with so many toolsy prospects, I had him as one of the just misses on my FYPD rankings, but that was a mistake. His athleticism stands out with double plus speed, and he’s grown as well with a projectable 6’2”, 175 pound frame. I’m still not quite as high on him as others, but there is obviously a ton of potential in here. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 79/18/73/.262/.328/.435/26
851) Eric Bitonti MIL, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 87th overall, Bitonti just turned 18 in mid November. He’s the same age or younger as many of the DSL prospects, and he started his career in stateside rookie ball. He’s 6’4”, 218 pounds with a big lefty swing that could have double plus power at peak. He already cracked 2 homers in 12 games in his pro debut. The hit tool is still very raw with a .179 BA and 31.1% K%, but the 18.8% BB% mitigates that a bit, and so does his young age. He has a chance to be a premier power hitter at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.240/.324/.457/3
852) Andrew Nardi MIA, Setup, 25.8 – If Miami is serious about making Puk a starter (which I don’t think they are), Nardi might be in position to be next man up. He had a strong year in 2023 with a 2.67 ERA, 17 holds, 3 saves, and a 30.8%/8.9% K%/BB% in 57.1 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a 94.5 MPH fastball, but he’s a weak contact machine with an 84.6 MPH EV against, and he still gets plenty of whiffs with a 28.5% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 5/3.45/1.22/77/4 saves 63 IP
853) Yovanny Rodriguez NYM, C, 17.5 – The 5’11”, 180 pound Rodriguez is the top catcher in the 2024 international class. A lot of that has to do with his potentially plus defense, but he’s no slouch with the bat either. He has a quick twitch swing with easy bat speed. He’s already pretty strong with more power coming, and he has a good feel to hit. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.268/.336/.447/6
854) Angel Martinez CLE, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Martinez had an underwhelming year in the upper minors with a 96 wRC+ in 99 games at Double-A and a 78 wRC+ in 37 games at Triple-A, but his profile mostly remains the same. He has a solid contact rates (20.1% K%), with developing power at 6’0″, 200 pounds (14 homers in 136 games), and average speed (11 steals). It’s an average across the board profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/18/65/.267/.330/.419/11
855) Cameron Cauley TEX, SS, 21.2 – Cauley’s swing and miss is in the major danger zone with a 31.6% K% in 100 games split between Single-A and High-A. He then went to the AFL and put up a .186 BA with a 43.8% K% in 21 games. That strikeout rate is brutal enough to stay away from him, but his power/speed combo is too good to just ignore. He has double plus speed with 39 steals, and he hits the ball hard with 16 homers. If he can make substantial gains to his hit tool, he could explode, but even one step forward would go a long way for his profile. As of now though, that strikeout rate scares me. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 53/13/44/.223/.309/.414/25
856) Carlos Rodriguez MIL, RHP, 22.4 – The Brewers rotation is very rough looking at the moment, so Rodriguez could have plenty of opportunity in 2023. He had a strong season with a 2.77 ERA and 29.5%/10.3% K%/BB% in 123.2 IP at Double-A. The stuff isn’t very big with a 91.6 MPH fastball, but he throws a six pitch mix with a plus changeup leading the way. It looks like a junkbally back end starter to me, but I trust Milwaukee’s pitching development, and you have to like the minor league K rates. 2024 Projection: 1/4.58/1.42/43 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.26/1.34/145 in 150 IP
857) Nick Fortes MIA, C, 27.4 – Fortes tanked in 2023 with a 53 wRC+, but he was on the unlucky side, the individual components of his underlying numbers don’t look too bad, and Miami doesn’t have many other options at the moment. He had a 18.3% K% with an 88.2 MPH EV and 13.9 degree launch. That gives hope that this was just an odd year where the baseball gods weren’t on his side. He’s a good defensive catcher, but he wasn’t good at throwing runners out, which is obviously at the forefront with the new rules. Miami could sign someone else, and Christian Bethancourt (who is excellent at throwing runners out, but bad at everything else defensively)/Paul McIntosh are other options in the the organization, but as of right now, I give the edge to Fortes. 2024 Projection: 39/8/33/.230/.302/.390/5
858) Rene Pinto TBR, C, 27.5 – Pinto seems to be the starting catcher in Tampa, but they can still bring someone else in, and even if they don’t, he’ll have other fringy competition. The reason I’m hesitant to assume he has the job is because his hit tool is brutal with a 32.4%/1.9% K%/BB% and 38% whiff% in 105 MLB at bats. He hits the ball extremely hard with a 90.5/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV with resulted in 6 homers and a decent 98 wRC+, but I’m struggling to get over how bad that hit tool/plate approach is. He’ll pop dingers if he gets the playing time, but it will come with a BA that can tank you. 2024 Projection: 33/12/41/.219/.265/.404/1
859) Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 25.6 – Carlson looks like a bench bat for the foreseeable future. He’s an average hitter at best with a lackluster fantasy profile. The solid plate approach leads the way with a 19.2%/10.2% K%/BB%, but the 5 homers and 3 steals in 255 PA is lacking. He’s more name value than anything else right now. 2024 Projection: 40/11/40/.246/.327/.402/7 Update: Carlson looks like he won the CF job in Edman’s absence, but he’s going to have to hit well to keep it, and that isn’t guaranteed
860) Ben Joyce LAA, Setup, 23.7 – Joyce made it look easy in his pro debut in 2022, jumping straight into Double-A and dominating with a 2.08 ERA with a 35.1%/7.0% K%/BB% in 13 IP, but 2023 was a completely different story. He struggled at both Double-A (4.60 ERA with a 34.3%/18.6% K%/BB% in 15.2 IP) and the majors (5.40 ERA with a 20.8%/18.8% K%/BB% in 10 IP). He missed 3 months mid-season with ulnar neuritis, adding injury risk onto the profile. The insane fastball velocity was still there with a 100.9 MPH fastball, but despite the velocity, it only played as an above average pitch at best on the MLB level, and the slider was average at best with a .319 xwOBA and 31.3% whiff%. Maybe he wasn’t quite healthy, or maybe it was a developmental bump in the road, but his inevitable beeline to the closer role doesn’t look all that inevitable anymore. 2024 Projection: 3/3.82/1.31/67/2 saves in 55 IP
861) Estiven Florial CLE, OF, 26.5 – The Yankees clearly didn’t believe in Florial at all, so getting traded to Cleveland will only help, and their CF job is definitely open for the taking. The reason the Yanks didn’t believe in him is because his hit tool is double below average. He has a career .209 BA with a 40.2% whiff% in 134 MLB PA. He hit very well at Triple-A with a 130 wRC+, 28 homers, and 25 steals, but even there the K% is in the danger zone at 29.9%. He has double plus speed with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint and he has plus raw power (90.6 MPH EV at AAA), but it seems unlikely that he can truly hit MLB pitching at 26 years old already. We’ve seen talents like this breakout in their late 20’s, sometimes it takes that long for a guy to improve the hit tool, and if that happens, the elite tools will be there to do the rest. 2024 Projection: 28/6/25/.221/.309/.392/9
862) Johnathan Rodriguez CLE, OF, 24.5 – Rodriguez has legit power with 29 homers and a 91.5 MPH EV in 135 games at Double- A and Triple-A, but it comes with major hit tool risk. He had a 32.7% K% in 47 games at Triple-A. Cleveland could use the power bats, but I think Valera and Noel are the better bats, so I’m not prioritizing Rodriguez. 2024 Projection: 11/4/16/.221/.292/.422/0 Prime Projection: 41/15/49/.238/.312/.453/1
863) Nasim Nunez WAS, SS/2B, 23.7 – Washington took a shot on Nunez in the Rule 5 Draft for a reason, and that is because their infield situation outside of CJ Abrams is unsettled. He put up a 79 wRC+ with 5 homers in 125 games at Double-A, but his supporting skills make him a legitimate fantasy prospect. He has a plus SS glove which should get him on the field, he has double plus speed with 52 stolen bases, and he gets on base with a 14.9% BB%. He’s only 5’9”, 168 pounds, so there likely isn’t much more power coming, but he has the skills to be among the league leaders in steals if he can hit just enough to not get stuck in a utility infielder role. 2024 Projection: 19/1/9/.238/.318/.354/7 Prime Projection: 73/8/42/.256/.331/.380/36
864) JoJo Romero STL, Setup, 27.7 – Romero is the best lefty in St. Louis’ pen after a breakout 2023, putting up a 3.68 ERA (2.82 xERA) with a 28.6%/8.6% K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. The stuff backs up the numbers with a 94.7 MPH sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, to go along with a changeup and slider that racks up whiffs (45.3% and 53.2%). His season ended on September 1st with knee tendinitis, but it doesn’t seem super serious. He can go multiple innings, and he can definitely slide into some save opps when a lefty is preferred. 2024 Projection: 6/3.42/1.19/75/5 saves in 65 IP
865) Scott Barlow CLE, Setup, 31.4 – Barlow is probably next man up in Cleveland based on prior experience, but it’s far from guaranteed. He throws two plus breaking balls as his most used pitches, but the 93 MPH fastball gets hit up. He’s been a good reliever for 5 years now, and while 2023 wasn’t his best year, it was solid with a 4.37 ERA (3.66 xERA) and 26.4%/11.4% K%/BB% in 68 IP. 2024 Projection: 4/3.51/1.25/76/3 saves 66 IP
866) Dauri Moreta PIT, Setup, 28.0 – Moreta broke out in 2023 with a 3.72 ERA and 31.8%/10.8% K%/BB% in 58 IP, and both the underlying numbers and stuff say it was for real. He had a 3.04 xERA with a 95.2 MPH fastball and double slider that put up a .218 xwOBA and 40.5% whiff%. He’s the third best arm in Pitt’s pen, and the 2nd best righty. 2024 Projection: 4/3.47/1.14/78/2 saves in 62 IP
867) Connor Wong BOS, C, 27.10 – Teel is going to be Boston’s starting catcher sooner rather than later, so Wong is likely a back up long term, but he’s got the job for now. Plus speed is his most interesting skill with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint and 8 steals in 126 games. It’s nice to have your catcher chip in with steals like that. He also hits the ball hard with a 9.1% Barrel%, 89.1 MPH EV, and 15.5 degree launch. What relegates him to a likely back up role is the terrible hit tool (33.3% K%) and plate approach (34.5% Chase%). He’s also not a good enough defensive catcher to make up for it. 2024 Projection: 49/11/45/.224/.286/.399/7
868) Freddy Fermin KCR, C, 28.10 – Fermin might be a better player than Salvador Perez, and he was certainly better than him in 2023 both offensively and defensively. He’s an above average defensive catcher and he slashed .281/.321/.461 with 9 homers, a 21.3%/5.5% K/BB% and a 108 wRC+ in 235 PA. The underlying numbers back it up with a 9.9% Barrel% and .332 xwOBA. Perez has the much longer track record and he obviously isn’t losing his starting job as long as he’s with the team (signed through 2025 with a 2026 club option), so Fermin is purely a back catcher right now, but if trades or injuries open up playing time, he could be relevant in even a shallow league. 2024 Projection: 23/7/25/.257/.322/.413/1
869) Elias Diaz COL, C, 33.4 – Diaz had one of the better offensive seasons of his career with a .725 OPS, and he had lady luck on his side with a .314 wOBA vs. .295 xwOBA, and it still resulted in a well below average 81 wRC+. He’s an okay defensive catcher at best and he’ll be 33 years old next year. I can’t imagine he holds down a starting job for much longer. 2024 Projection: 43/12/52/.250/.305/.400/1
870) Yasmani Grandal PIT, C, 35.5 – Grandal is a 35 years old with declining offense and declining defense. 2023 was his 2nd straight season with a slightly negative WAR. And the underlying numbers back up the decline with a .278 xwOBA in 2023 and a .290 xwOBA in 2022. His days of being a starting catcher or either over, or very nearly over, although it seems he’s expected to be the main catcher with Pitt, at least to start the season 2024 Projection: 46/12/47/.229/.317/.389/0
871) Yan Gomes CHC, C, 36.8 – As I wrote in the Amaya blurb, it seems likely that Amaya will take over the starting catcher job in 2024, but that isn’t a guarantee, and Gomes can be serviceable for one more year if he can hold Amaya off. He gets the bat on the ball with a 19.3% K%, he lifts it with a 15.1 degree launch, and he hits it hard enough with a 92.1 MPH FB/LD EV. It was good for an above average .317 xwOBA. 2024 Projection: 32/9/37/.249/.300/.410/1
872) Mike Tauchman CHC, OF, 33.4 – Even if the Cubs don’t re-sign Bellinger, which it seems very likely that they will (and they just did), PCA is right around the corner. Tauchman is likely a bench bat with an average at best across the board profile. OBP is his best skill with a 14% BB%, so add a half star in OBP leagues. 2024 Projection: 48/9/41/.254/.345/.390/7
873) Avisail Garcia MIA, OF, 32.10 – Garcia had the “best shape of his life” storyline going into 2023, and like usual, nothing came of it with his second horrendous season. He put up a 63 wRC+ in 2022 and a 46 wRC+ in 37 games in 2023 battling multiple injuries. The hit tool is on a clear decline with a career worst 33.1% K%. He has a big contract, there is still a path to playing time with Miami, and the raw talent is still intact with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint, so I guess he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues. 2024 Projection: 38/9/44/.231/.296/.399/3
874) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 25.6 – Dingler will be competing with Jake Rogers for Detroit’s starting catcher job before long. Their profiles are mighty similar too with plus power (16 homers in 89 games split between 3 levels) and hit tool issues (29.6% K% in the upper minors). He’s a deeper league proximity play. 2024 Projection: 16/4/21/.210/.282/.383/2 Prime Projection: 46/17/55/.225/.297/.414/5
875) Agustin Ramirez NYY, C, 22.7 – Ramirez is a thick 6’0”, 225 pounds, and he used that stout frame to hit the ball very hard. He cracked 18 homers in 114 games split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He did it with a good feel to hit as well with a 17.3% K%. He struggled when he got to Double-A with a 62 wRC+ in 31 games, which is a little concerning, but he still had strong contact rates (19.4% K%), and it was his first taste of the upper minors after playing in rookie ball all of last year. The defense isn’t that great, which could force a move to 1B/DH, and that would put a whole lot of pressure on his bat to absolutely max out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 41/15/49/.255/.320/.443/5
876) Paul DeJong CHW, SS, 30.8 – DeJong signed with Chicago to be their stopgap SS until Colson Montgomery is ready. He put up a 66 wRC+ in 2023 and has been a well below average hitter for 4 seasons now. He has an above average glove at SS, which is why he keeps getting run, but with a 85.5 MPH EV and 30.3%/5.3% K%/BB%, you don’t want to be giving him run on your dynasty team. Chicago even has other young options for SS besides Montgomery, so DeJong isn’t guaranteed anything. 2024 Projection: 35/9/35/.212/.275/.385/3
877) Ryan Bliss SEA, 2B/SS, 24.4 – Bliss was putting up video game numbers at Double-A with 12 homers, 30 steals, and .358 BA in 68 games, but his numbers dropped off in the 2nd half at Triple-A with a still respectable .779 OPS in 60 games. He’s a particularly small guy at 5’6” and he had an 86 MPH EV at Triple-A, so you can’t trust the 23 homers he hit in 128 games. The hit tool is good, but not great, so he’ll likely have to start his career in a utility role, and with Seattle trading for Polanco, his path to playing time is gone. 2024 Projection: 17/3/12/.238/.304/.373/5 Prime Projection: 71/14/57/.248/.319/.401/22
878) Javier Vaz KCR, 2B/SS/OF, 23.6 – Vaz is a little guy at 5’9” with elite contact rates, high walk rates, plus speed, and some pop. He’s on the older side at 23 years old and KC played him all over the field (2B, SS, CF, LF). This type of profile often ends up as a utility player, but he got a lot more interesting when he was able to fully keep up the production from High-A when he got the call to Double-A. He slashed .304/.391/.429 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 13.8%/11.5% K%/BB% in 33 games at level. He’s more of a deep league flier type, but KC has plenty of opportunity in the near future, and he has the type of skills that can make a fantasy impact if he does get the playing time. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/8/52/.268/.327/.386/16
879) Samad Taylor SEA, 2B/OF, 25.9 – Taylor’s first shot against MLB pitching didn’t go well with a 31.9% K% and .546 OPS in 69 PA, but in such a barren minor league system, why not take a shot on a guy who can actually be a fantasy difference maker. And that difference making ability is his speed. He stole 8 bags in those 69 PA and that was with barely being on base. He also jacked 43 bags in 89 games at Triple-A. Speaking of Triple-A, he did damage there with 8 homers, a 20.5%/15.9% K%/BB%, and 128 wRC+. He’s looking like a speed bench bat with little power and hit tool issues, but that speed can make a legit impact. 2024 Projection: 37/4/29/.236/.307/.378/14
880) Connor Joe PIT, 1B/OF, 31.8 – The Tellez, Olivares, and McCutchen acquisitions puts a squeeze on Joe for playing time, but he should still be in line for at least a short side of a platoon role. He bounced back from a poor 2022 with a .760 OPS, 107 wRC+, .329 xwOBA, and 8.2% Barrel% in 472 PA. The plate approach is good with a 23.3%/10.6% K%/BB% and he lifts the ball with a 16.7 degree launch, so he’s capable of being a solid player in deeper leagues. 2024 Projection: 48/11/41/.253/.340/.416/2
881) Carlos De La Cruz PHI, 1B/OF, 24.6 – Cruz is one of those unicorn baseball players at 6’8”, 210 pounds with big power, but he’s one I’m not really going after. The strikeout rates have been very high throughout his pro career and sat at 27.5% at Double-A this year. His walk rates have been relatively low and while the 9.3% BB% he put up this year is solid, it’s not particularly great considering his skillset and age. He doesn’t run much with only 3 steals and the groundball rates are on the high side at 46.1%. Having said that, he jacked out 24 homers with a 118 wRC+ in 129 games. He’s a fine pick in deeper leagues or as you get into the late rounds of your draft, but I’m not going after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 33/9/39/.232/.308/.428/2
882) Tyler Gentry KCR, OF, 25.2 – Gentry got off to a rough 1st half of the season, but he got back to mashing in the 2nd half, slashing .288/.425/.495 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 48/46 K/BB in 58 games at Triple-A. He’s not exactly a masher, but his power is legit with a respectable 88.8 MPH EV, and he combines that with a mature plate approach and some speed. The poor first half had a lot of people forgetting about the relative excitement for Gentry coming into the year, me included, but he has a strong across the board profile, and he’ll compete for a big league job this Spring. 2024 Projection: 31/7/35/.232/.311/.414/5
883) Rece Hinds CIN, OF, 23.7 – Hinds hit tool and plate approach are just too brutal to fully jump on board. He had a 32.8%/7.4% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A. His strikeout problems were just as bad in the lower minors. The power is legit at 6’4”, 215 pounds with 23 homers, and he’s a good athlete with 20 steals, but the odds of the hit tool tanking him are very high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 32/11/38/.222/.291/.429/5
884) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 23.6 – Fabian had major strikeout issues in college, and while he managed to keep them at a reasonable rate in the lower minors (25.7% K% in 56 games at High-A), they got completely out of control when he faced advanced pitching for the first time with a 37.5% K% in 64 games at Double-A. The power/speed combo is big with 24 homers and 31 steals in 120 games overall, but that K rate is much too high for me to buy in too hard, especially in Baltimore’s stacked organization. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 48/16/53/.235/.320/.435/12
885) Braylin Tavera BAL, OF, 19.2 – The 6’2”, 175 pound Tavera was a high priced international signing who played well this year at stateside rookie, slashing .262/.391/.421 with 4 homers, 13 steals, and a 17.3%/16.5% K%/BB% in 35 games. He has the type of talent that could fly up rankings with a strong showing in full season ball. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/20/77/.255/.333/.438/11
886) Marcos Torres TEX, 1B/OF, 19.6 – Torres hit well in the DSL in 2022 with a 133 wRC+, and he backed that up stateside in 2023, slashing .250/.378/.494 with 7 homers, 23 steals, and a 23.9%/13.4% K%/BB% in 48 games. At 6’3”, the power is most certainly legit, but he doesn’t have any defensive value and there are some hit tool issues which reared their ugly head at Single-A with a 43.9% K% in 10 games to close out the season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/23/74/.243/.321/.434/9
887) Jose Pirela CLE, OF, 18.0 – Pirela has all the tools to blow up in 2024. He’s an athletic 6’3”, 180 pounds with plus power potential. He performed well in the DSL, slashing .270/.395/.480 with 6 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.6%/13.5% K%/BB% in 41 games. The K rate is higher than optimal, but at the very least you should keep a close eye on him in his stateside debut and pounce quickly if he’s performing well. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/24/81/.250/.325/.457/9
888) Andres Valor MIA, OF, 18.5 – Valor wasn’t a hyped international signing, but he wasn’t cheap either at $520,000, and he has the build and skills to get excited about. He’s a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds with plus athleticism and a swing geared for both power and average. He had an excellent season in the DSL, slashing .294/.360/.466 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 24.1%/9.2% K%/BB% in 51 games. The K rate is a bit on the high side for the DSL, but he’s an exciting lotto ticket that could pay off big in a couple years. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/21/73/.245/.317/.431/14
889) Enmanuel Bonilla TOR, OF, 18.2 – Bonilla was a very high priced international signing ($4.1 million) known for his plus power and good feel to hit, and while he didn’t destroy the DSL, he hit well, slashing .307/.407/.429 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 24.3%/11.9% K%/BB% in 50 games. It was good for a 127 wRC+. He remains in the lotto ticket bucket as a possible future hyped breakout. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/26/83/.248/.326/.467/9
890) Gabriel Lara NYY, OF, 18.4 – Gabriel is one of, if not the most underrated DSL breakout prospect. I don’t see a whisper of hype for anywhere, but he’s legitimately very exciting. He slashed .267/.401/.411 with 4 homers, 18 steals, and a 16.5%/15.4% K%/BB% in 43 games. He has double plus speed, and while he’s not a big guy at 5’9”, he has a strong lefty swing. He’s in the mold of a Carlos Jorge. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 78/15/59/.267/.336/.411/25
891) Max Muncy OAK, SS, 21.8 – The good news is that Muncy didn’t let his strikeout rate get out of control as he climbed the minor league ladder. He put up a 29.5%/9.9% K%/BB% with a .255 BA in 72 games at High-A and a 23.2%/9% K%/BB% with a .302 BA in 51 games at Double-A. The bad news is that he needed to give up some of his power to do it with only 10 homers and relatively low hard hit rates in 123 games. He also stole only 13 bags, so we can’t count on big steal totals either. He’s only 21 years old and he’s obviously trying to find the right balance of hit vs. power. Putting up a 124 wRC+ in your age 20 season at Double-A is nothing to sneeze at either. The hit tool is still hard to trust, and he’s yet to put up that truly special season, but the ingredients are there to breakout in the next 1-2 years. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 67/20/74/.241/.320/.433/13
892) Chase Dollander COL, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 9th overall, Dollander was picked by Colorado, which could honestly end the blurb right there. I’m just not in the business of going after Rockies prospect pitchers, no matter how highly touted they are. Jon Gray is probably pretty close to the best case scenario. Dollander is 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus to double plus mid 90’s fastball which he didn’t command as well in 2023 as he did in 2022. He had a 2.39 ERA with a 108/13 K/BB in 79 IP in 2022 vs. a 4.75 ERA with a 120/30 K/BB in 89 IP in 2023. The slider is his best secondary and while it’s good, it’s not really in the elite filth area. He also mixes in a good curveball and changeup. If he were drafted by another team, I could see overlooking the step back he took in 2023, but in Coors Field, I’m staying far away ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.31/173 in 170 IP
893) Travis Sykora WAS, RHP, 19.11 – Selected 71st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Sykora is a 6’6”, 230 pound righty with a huge fastball that has eclipsed 100 MPH. Those two things alone make Sykora an interesting later round option in first year player drafts. There is a reason he didn’t get drafted higher though. The delivery looks a bit gangly to me, the control isn’t great, he’s on the older side for his high school class, and his secondaries (slider & split changeup) need plenty of refinement. Washington went way over slot to sign him ($2.6 million), and the upside is certainly there for him to explode. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.34/160 in 150 IP
894) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Wrobleski is another Dodgers success story, ho hum, with a 2.90 ERA and 26%/8.3% K%/BB% in 102.1 IP at High-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a 3 good secondaries in his slider, curve, and changeup from a very clean lefty delivery. He doesn’t really standout when watching him in particular, but there is not much to nitpick with the profile either. He was old for the level, the control/command wasn’t great, and the K rates weren’t off the charts, so my read is that a #4 starter is a reasonable projection with mid rotation upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.29/136 in 145 IP
895) Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 25.0 – Rutledge is a low upside proximity play with opportunity in Washington. He’s also a mountain of a man at 6’8”, 250 pounds with big stuff, which always keeps a pitcher interesting even if the results aren’t there. And the results certainly weren’t there with a 4.44 ERA and 19.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 50.2 IP at Triple-A. He got decimated in the majors too with a 6.75 ERA and 13.6%/6.8% K%/BB% in 20 IP. He throws a 95.8 MPH fastball with a potentially plus slider, which is the only reason he cracks this list. There is always a chance a coaching staff can unlock something if the stuff is big. 2024 Projection: 3/4.69/1.44/67 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.34/1.35/125 in 145 IP
896) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B, 24.10 – Gonzales had a rough MLB debut with a 64 wRC+ in 35 games. He didn’t hit the ball hard (85.5 MPH EV), he didn’t get the bat on the ball (32.4% whiff%), and he didn’t run (0 steals). He didn’t do any of those things well at Triple-A either, but he did perform well at that level with a 121 wRC+ in 99 games. He’s a fringy prospect and he has competition for playing time, but as the former 7th overall pick in the draft, I get the sense Pitt will want to give him every chance to succeed. 2024 Projection: 38/7/36/.236/.303/.394/4
897) Chase Meidroth BOS, 2B/3B, 22.8 – Meidroth was utterly destroying High-A with a 173 wRC+ in 20 games, but his numbers fell back down to earth at Double-A, slashing .255/.386/.375 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 19.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 91 games. He has an above average hit tool with a mature plate approach, but the groundball rates are over 50%, he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, he’s not that fast, and he’s not a great defensive player. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/14/67/.264/.332/.416/7
898) Nick Loftin KC, 1B/2B/3B, 25.6 – Loftin is a hit tool first super utility type who doesn’t have enough power or speed to really go after in anything but very deep leagues. He made his MLB debut in 2024 and put up a .323 BA in 68 PA, but it was mostly due to a .392 BABIP. The 86.3 MPH EV was well below average and the 27.2 ft/sec sprint speed was also pretty discouraging. If I’m going to roster a utility type, they better have plus speed, and Loftin doesn’t have it. The defensive versatility, plus contact rates, and proximity should have him on your radar, but that is about all right now. 2024 Projection: 43/7/44/.257/.313/.394/7
899) Mason Montgomery TB, LHP, 23.10 – Montgomery is a deceptive lefty with low 90’s heat and a plus changeup as his best secondary. He put up a 4.18 ERA with a 28%/10.5% K%/BB% in 107.2 IP at Double-A. The walk rates are bit too high for this type of profile, but if anyone can turn him into an impact fantasy starter, it’s Tampa. 2024 Projection: 1/4.41/1.38/26 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.17/1.32/136 in 140 IP
900) Eduardo Herrera CHW, 3B, 17.6 – Herrera is an already built up 6’2”, 215 pounds with an extremely quick and powerful righty bat that crushes baseballs. He looks like a grown man out there and will have easy plus power at peak. He also has a good feel to hit and is a good athlete. He has a chance to be a complete, middle of the order bat. He’s expected to land a signing bonus that approaches $2 million. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 81/26/86/.263/.345/.478/8
901) Ricardo Yan ARI, RHP, 21.5 – Yan has a funky, athletic, herky jerky, rubber arm, almost sidearm righty delivery that would be a nightmare to go against. It’s super fun watching him. He uses that delivery to fire a low 90’s sinker, plus slider, and solid changeup. It resulted in a 3.65 ERA with a 31.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 103.2 IP at Single-A and High-A. He keeps the ball on the ground and gets whiffs, which is a great combo. He’s a skinny 6’4”, so he could easily add velocity in future years. A bullpen role might be his most likely outcome, but damn is there some legitimate, really fun upside in here. I actually really really like Yan. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.92/1.31/147 in 145 IP
902) Wenceel Perez DET, 2B/OF, 24.5 – Perez has an interesting fantasy profile with an above average hit tool (16.4% K%), plus speed (26 steals), and some pop (9 homers in 116 games in the upper minors), but I don’t see a clear path to playing time, so he’ll likely be a utility infielder for at least the first few years of his career. 2024 Projection: 16/2/9/.248/.311/.377/4 Prime Projection: 73/14/59/.266/.328/.412/21
903) Lenyn Sosa CHW, 2B, 24.2 – It seems like Chicago is going to fill their hole at 2B with someone outside the organization (trade/signing), and I think Jose Rodriguez would have the inside track long term if they don’t, but Sosa is still in the mix and there is opportunity. He gets the bat on the ball (23.1% K%), and he hits is relatively hard with a 89.4/93.6 MPH FB/LD EV. He only put up a 97 wRC+ in 71 games at Triple-A and a 47 wRC+ in 52 games in the majors, he doesn’t steal bases, and has a poor plate approach, so I don’t think he’s a starter, but he’s in the mix right now. 2024 Projection: 19/7/24/.243/.300/.410/1
904) Justice Bigbie DET, OF, 25.2 – Bigbie had a huge season with a .343 BA in 115 games at mostly Double-A, but buying into a batting average fueled breakout isn’t really my thing. He’s an aggressive, line drive hitter with a 15.9%/8.7% K%/BB%, so a high BABIP is part of his profile, but his K% fell apart when he got to Triple-A with a 25.9% K%, and his strikeout rates have been on the average to below average side previously in his career. He doesn’t steal a lot of bases, and the launch limits his power upside with 19 homers and 6 steals. It seems like more of a bench bat or non impact starter type to me. 2024 Projection: 11/2/9/.246/.307/.398/1 Prime Projection: 51/14/57/.266/.327/.432/5
905) Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, 2B/SS, 22.8 – Cheng wasn’t able to maintain his outstanding production from High-A (163 wRC+ in 57 games) when he got to Double-A (80 wRC+ in 66 games), but he showed all of his skills will translate to the upper minors with a 18.9% K%, 4 homers, and 13 steals. He’s an up the middle defender with plus contact rates, a mature plate approach, plus speed, and sneaky pop. It’s a high floor profile with fantasy friendly upside, but he could easily end up a utility infielder. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/12/57/.262/.328/.391/22
906) Cristofer Torin ARI, SS/2B, 18.10 – Torin will still be just 18 years old for the first two months of the 2024 season, and he already made it all the way up to Single-A in 2023. He earned that promotion by being insanely mature for his age in stateside rookie ball, slashing .320/.437/.427 with 2 homers, 15 steals, and a 7.1%/16.7% K%/BB% in 26 games. He slowed down at Single-A with a 74 wRC+ in 30 games, but the 19.2% K%, 2 homers and 6 steals shows he wasn’t completely overmatched. You’re buying the advanced bat and approach because he doesn’t have a huge power/speed combo, but he’s definitely got some pop with more coming, and he’s a good base stealer with some speed. He can be a hit tool driven, solid across the board contributor at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/16/58/.278/.352/.421/15
907) Diego Velasquez SFG, 2B/SS, 20.6 – Velasquez’ power ticked up in 2023 with 8 homers in 111 games at Single-A, and it was enough to put him on the prospect map considering his other skills. He has a good feel to hit (15.9% K% and .298 BA), he gets on base (10.8% BB%), and he has speed (23 steals). It was good for a 125 wRC+. He’s a projectable 6’1”, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there is more power coming down the line. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/16/65/.272/.331/.413/18
908) Leonardo Balcazar CIN, SS, 19.9 – Balcazar was playing well at Single-A before going down for the year with a torn ACL. He slashed .324/.427/.471 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 26.8%/15.9% K%/BB% in 18 games. It was good for a 147 wRC+, and it was basically the exact same thing he did in the DSL in 2021 (135 wRC+), and stateside rookie in 2022 (144 wRC+). I wrote in his Top 1,000 blurb last year that he “was flying too far under the radar,” and just when he was about to get his due, he went out and busted up his knee. If he returns to full health, I have no doubt he will continue to show the same mature plate approach, speed, and developing power that he has every single year of his career. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/18/73/.257/.336/.423/18
909) Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 23.7 – I’ve felt Priester has been overrated for awhile now, and he had another mediocre season at both Triple-A and the majors. He put up a 7.74 ERA with a 15.4%/11.5% K%/BB% in 50 MLB innings. He had a 4.00 ERA with a 25.3%/10.2% K%/BB% in 108 IP at Triple-A. The stuff isn’t all that big with a 93.5 MPH sinker, and the control is below average. It’s a back end starter profile who gets too much hype because he looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a diverse pitch mix. 2024 Projection: 4/4.60/1.42/72 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.32/1.35/131 in 145 IP
910) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 25.11 – Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April and will miss the 1st half of 2024 at least. It also isn’t likely that a rotation spot will be waiting for him, so he’s quickly entering depth starter/bullpen piece territory. He was terrible in 2022 and I was already out on him last off-season, so the Tommy John surgery is just the cherry on top. He’s borderline for the Top 1,000, but he has the bat missing ability with a 28.4% whiff% in 2022 to stay interesting if the control/command can take a step forward. 2024 Projection: OUT
911) Joe Kelly LAD, Setup, 35.10 – Kelly struggles to stay healthy, but he was a beast when he’s out there with a 98.9 MPH sinker and 35.7% K% in 39.1 IP. He throws a trio of secondaries that all range from plus to elite, led by the 91.6 MPH slider that notched a 47% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. If he stays healthy, he can be a truly elite setup guy. 2024 Projection: 4/3.28/1.16/74/2 saves 55 IP
912) Ian Hamilton NYY, Setup, 28.10 – Loaisiga and Kahnle both dealt with injuries in 2023, so it could open the door for Hamilton to be next man up when the time comes. He broke out with a 2.64 ERA and 28.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 58 IP. He has the stuff to back that up with a plus slider that notched a 43.4% whiff% and a 95.6 MPH sinker. 2024 Projection: 3/3.52/1.24/70/2 saves in 60 IP
913) Colin Poche TBR, Setup, 30.3 – Poche had the best year of his career by going to his elite slider more than ever. He used it 34.9% of the time and it notched a .193 xwOBA and 40.9% whiff%. It also helped him put up the lowest HR/FB rate in his career at 5.3%. It resulted in a 2.23 ERA (2.67 xERA) with a 24.8%/9.8% K%/BB% in 60.2 IP. He seems to be behind both Fairbanks and Jason Adam in the pecking order, the profile isn’t your typical back end arm with a 92.5 MPH fastball, and luck probably played a factor in his much better HR/FB rate (14.3% in 2022), but he’s a great pick for holds. 2024 Projection: 6/3.46/1.12/64/4 saves in 60 IP
914) Gregory Soto PHI, Setup, 29.2 – Soto finally improved his control with a career best by far 8.8% BB% (12.9% in 2022), so of course he had the 2nd worst ERA of his career with a 4.62 ERA. The underlying numbers were elite though with a 2.82 ERA and 34% whiff% (only a 26% K% though). The stuff is fire with a 98.1 MPH sinker and a slider that notched a 48.7% whiff%. He racked up 24 holds and 3 saves. If he can maintain those control gains, there is elite setup man potential in here. 2024 Projection: 4/3.60/1.25/69/3 saves in 61 IP
915) Caleb Ferguson NYY, Setup, 27.9 – Ferguson is now the top lefty in the Yanks pen. He put up a 3.43 ERA with a 25.9%/8.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. The fastball is plus at 95.8 MPH with a 26% whiff%, but the secondaries don’t miss quite enough bats to really fly him up rankings. 2024 Projection: 5/3.48/1.26/68/3 saves in 58 IP
916) Matt Moore LAA, Setup, 34.10 – Moore backed up his 2022 breakout with another great year in 2023. He put up a 2.56 ERA with a 27.5%/6.9% K%/BB% in 52.2 IP. All three of his pitches miss bats, and the changeup was elite with a .184 xwOBA. He’s the best lefty in their pen, so he could work his way into some saves even if everyone is healthy and effective. 2024 Projection: 4/3.31/1.17/70/6 saves in 60 IP
917) Tommy Kahnle NYY, Setup, 34.7 – Kahnle missed the first two months of the season with a biceps issues, and the last 2 weeks of the season with a shoulder injury. He should be ready for 2024, but there is obviously some extra injury risk here. He pitched well in between the injuries with a 2.66 ERA and 29.1%/11.5% K%/BB% in 40.2 IP. The plus fastball sat 95.3 MPH and he threw his plus changeup 75.6% of the time. He would be in the mix to replace Holmes if Holmes got hurt. 2024 Projection: 3/3.31/1.15/65/5 saves in 55 IP
918) Julian Merryweather CHC, Setup, 32.5 – The Neris signing likely moves Merryweather down the pecking order, but his stuff and strikeout upside still deserve a spot on this list. He broke out in 2023 with a 3.38 ERA and 32.3%/11.9% K%/BB% in 72 IP. The throws 98.1 MPH gas with a double plus slider that notched a 45.2% whiff%. His 35.1% whiff% is in the near elite range. 2024 Projection: 4/3.54/1.25/85/2 saves in 65 IP
919) Sam Hentges CLE, Setup, 27.8 – Hentges is the best lefty in Cleveland’s pen, and while he didn’t have as good of a year in 2023 as he did in 2022, it was still a good season with a 3.61 ERA and 25.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP. He throws a 4 pitch mix where every pitch does it’s job (groundball sinker, 2 bat missing breaking balls, 95.6 MPH bat missing 4-seamer). 2024 Projection: 3/3.42/1.20/66/2 saves in 59 IP
920) Gregory Santos SEA, Setup, 24.7 – The trade to Seattle kills Santos’ fantasy value in saves leagues especially, but it hurts him in all leagues probably. He pitched well in 2023 with a 3.39 ERA and 22.8%/5.9% K%/BB% in 66.1 IP. The K rate wasn’t high, but he has high leverage reliever stuff with a 98.8 MPH sinker and 91.3 MPH slider that notched a .227 xwOBA and 37.2% whiff%. He obviously made a successful effort to improve his control this year, which combined with his stuff, can lead to a true explosion in future years, although he’s never been a huge K guy even in the minors. He picked up an elbow injury in September and it was announced he might not be fully ready for the start of spring training, but Seattle is clearly not too concerned. 2024 Projection: 3/3.52/1.23/64/1 saves in 60 IP
921) Chris Martin BOS, Setup, 37.10 – Martin is a solid vet who had another good year in 2023 with a 1.05 ERA and 23.1%/4.0% K%/BB% in 51.1 IP. The stuff is still big with a 95.7 MPH 4-seamer and the control is elite. Jansen has been involved in trade talks (and I’m sure Martin isn’t untouchable either), so the closer job could open up at some point in 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.35/1.10/55/7 saves in 53 IP
922) Adam Ottavino NYM, Setup, 38.4 – Ottavino is next man up in New York, and while I’m all the way back in on Edwin Diaz, the knee injury obviously adds enough extra risk to put a star next to Ottavino’s name if you are speculating on saves late in the draft. He saved 12 games for them in 2023 and had another good year with a 3.21 ERA and 23.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 61.2 IP, but signs of decline have firmly seeped in. The velocity was down considerably to 92.5 MPH on the sinker (94.2 MPH in 2022), and it was steadily decreasing as the year went along. He missed fewer bats overall as you can tell by the 10 year low K%. At 38 years old, there is fall off the cliff potential, but relievers are weird, so it wouldn’t complete shock me if the velocity bounced back somehow. 2024 Projection: 4/3.61/1.24/65/7 saves in 60 IP
923) Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 24.5 – Contreras took two huge steps back from his solid rookie year in 2022. His fastball velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 94.3 MPH, and it got absolutely obliterated with a 92.9 MPH EV against. He doesn’t have the type of control to survive without a big fastball. It led to a 6.58 ERA with a 18.2%/10.6% K%/BB% in 68.1 IP. He got beat up at Triple-A too. The only silver lining is that his slider and curve were both good with a 36.5% and 44.7% whiff%, so if he can figure out his fastball/control, the upside is still in here. 2023 was a straight disaster that tanks his value, there is no way around that, but remember that pitching development is particularly non linear. He can still right the ship. 2024 Projection: 4/4.31/1.36/80 in 80 IP Update: He’s looked really bad in spring
924) Alejandro Osuna TEX, OF, 21.6 – Osuna is the type of prospect who is never going to get big love, but I comp him to pre-roids Melky Cabrera, and Melky never got any prospect love either. He lived up to that Melky comp with a good year at the age appropriate High-A with a 115 wRC+, 22.1%/15.2% K%/BB%, 5 homers, and 16 steals in 70 games. He has a quick and strong lefty swing with speed, a mature plate approach, and developing power. I think he can be a rock solid player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/16/66/.268/.337/.423/21
925) Gabriel Rincones PHI, OF, 23.1 – Putting up a 104 wRC+ with a .238 BA and 10 homers in 72 games at High-A as a 22 year old isn’t very impressive, but Rincones has the tools to remain interesting. He’s 6’3″”, 225 pounds with legitimate raw power, and while he’s not a burner, stealing 32 bags in 120 games shows he’s a good athlete. The strikeout rates are on the high side with a 24.8% K% at High-A, so there is hit tool risk which keeps him more in the flier territory. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 52/15/52/.241/.319/.430/8
926) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 25.0 – Johnson returned from Tommy John surgery in August and the big stuff was back with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and two potentially plus breaking balls. He closed out the season at Double-A, going 3 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 4/2 K/BB. He generally hasn’t had major control problems with his career, so if his control returns and he remains healthy, he could start to look very exciting in 2024. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 6/3.89/1.32/120 in 110 IP
927) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0 – Perales has an electric mid to upper 90’s fastball that explodes out of his hand, but he needs to make gains to the rest of his profile if he wants to remain a starter. The control is below average with a 12.7% BB%, and the secondaries are inconsistent with a potentially plus slider and developing changeup. He pitched well at Single-A with a 3.21 ERA and 31.4%/12.4% K%/BB% in 53.1 IP, but those numbers immediately took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a 4.95 ERA and 26.3%/13.2% K%/BB% in 36.1 IP. A reliever is probably his most likely outcome, but he’s young enough where you can factor in enough gains to his supporting skills to remain a starter. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 8/4.13/1.32/142 in 140 IP
928) Gunnar Hoglund OAK, RHP, 24.3 – Like Sims, Hoglund is another case of a player not returning to form after Tommy John surgery. He returned from the injury in July of 2022 only to almost immediately go back on the IL with a biceps issue. His season was delayed in 2023 from the same issue, and he wasn’t good when he got back on the mound with a 6.05 ERA and 46/12 K/BB in 61 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The one saving grace is that he finally starting looking a little bit like his pre Tommy John self with a 2.55 ERA and 19/2 K/BB in his last 17.2 IP. The plus control certainly still seems to be in here, but the stuff isn’t all the way back. He looks like a back end starter right now, but there is upside in the hope he returns to full health in 2024 after his first normal off-season in awhile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 8/4.35/1.30/125 in 140 IP
929) Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 23.4 – Barco returned from Tommy John surgery in July and put up a 3.44 ERA with a 28/6 K/BB in 18.1 IP at rookie and Single-A. He looked mostly healthy with a low 90’s fastball and two solid, but not standout secondaries in his changeup and slider. The almost sidearm lefty delivery helps everything play up. The fastball velocity is going to have to tick up and/or the control will have to enter near elite territory for him to beat a 4/5 starter projection, either/both of which is possible as he gets further away from the injury. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.29/144 in 150 IP
930) Josh Stephan TEX, RHP, 22.5 – Stephan’s stuff doesn’t really jump off the screen with a below average low 90’s fastball, but if the fastball can tick up in the future, he has the plus slider and plus control to really start popping. He put up a 2.17 ERA with a 31.2%/5.1% K%/BB% in 62.1 IP at High-A, and then proved the skills will translate to Double-A in one start (5/1 K/BB in 4.1 IP) before getting shutdown with a back injury. He’s 6’3”, 185 pounds, so there is room to tack on more muscle to get that velocity up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.26/130 in 145 IP
931) Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 21.0 – A former Brick Wall favorite, Arteaga has just never been able to put all the tools together. He had another mixed bag season at High-A with 17 homers, 8 steals, and a 24.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 126 games. It was good for a below average 89 wRC+. All of the individual components are in here with plus power potential, speed, defense, and an improving feel to hit, but at some point it has to come together. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/19/69/.244/.317/.420/9
932) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 23.3 – Ramos has plus power with 19 homers in 113 games at Double-A, but the hit tool is well below average with a 28.9% K% and .240 BA, and there isn’t a path to playing time in LA. He looks like a power bench bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 45/16/56/.236/.312/.436/3
933) Leandro Arias BAL, 2B/3B/SS, 19.2 – Arias had a strong year at stateside rookie, slashing .271/.370/.414 with 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 12.3%/12.3% K%/BB% in 44 games. He’s a projectable 6’1′ and hits the ball hard with an excellent plate approach and speed. He could definitely start popping with a strong showing in full season ball. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/267/.334/.429/18
934) Alexander Albertus LAD, 3B/SS/2B, 19.5 – Albertus started the season by repeating the DSL as an 18-year-old (148 wRC+ in 31 games), which usually isn’t a good sign, but he made it stateside to close out the season, and he proved he can also rake against age appropriate competition. He slashed .313/.532/.438 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 8.5%/29.8% K%/BB% in 14 games. It’s also not like he struggled in the DSL in 2022 with a 143 wRC+. He’s 6’1”, 176 pound with an explosive righty swing, so more power is certainly coming, and his plate approach sure looks like it could have near elite potential. He’s got some speed too. His hype could explode in 2024. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/18/68/.273/.349/.428/15
935) Eric Brown MIL, SS, 23.3 – Brown feels completely forgotten about just one year after being drafted 27th overall, but he had a solid year in 2023 with 6 homers, 37 steals, and a 16.7%/11.1% K%/BB% in 63 games at Single-A. He was never expected to hit for big power, but his power was even weaker than expected with an extremely low hard hit rate and .343 SLG. His K rate also exploded in a very small sample at Double-A with a 37.5% K% in 5 games. It feels early to just be completely off him, but a utility infielder role looks more likely than it did in his draft year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/10/48/.255/.327/.389/24
936) Rafael Ramirez CLE, SS, 18.8 – Ramirez was one of the younger players in stateside rookie as a 17 year old for the first two months of the rookie ball season, and he was a well above average hitter with a 133 wRC+. He has an explosive lefty swing at 6’0”, and while he hit only 4 homers in 41 games, there is more power coming with no groundball issues (34.5% GB%). He also has some speed (6 steals) and a patient (maybe too patient) plate approach (28.4%/26.3% K%/BB%). Edouard Julien isn’t the worst comp right now. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/19/73/.248/.344/.431/10
937) Staryln Caba PHI, SS, 18.4 – The 5’10,”, 160 pound Cabo was a hit/speed DSL breakout, slashing .301/.423/.346 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 9.8%/17.1% K%/BB% in 38 games. He signed for $3 million last international signing period, so he certainly has the pedigree too. He’s a switch hitter with enough projectable power to get to at least average at peak, and he was also known for his excellent glove. He has a chance to be a real riser with a strong stateside debut and power gains. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 83/15/64/.275/.348/.411/26
938) Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 22.7 – Wallace’s numbers dropped off a cliff when he got promoted to Double-A with a 75 wRC+ in 33 games vs. a 116 wRC+ in 97 games at High-A. That isn’t what you want to see from an advanced college bat, but he still showed off a potentially solid across the board profile that makes him interesting. He gets the bat on the ball with a 20.6% K% overall, he puts a sting into the ball with 13 homers, and he has some speed with 18 steals. They took him with the 49th overall pick in 2022, so KC obviously likes him. It’s not the highest upside profile, but this does look like an MLB bat in some capacity. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 62/18/67/.252/.318/.431/10
939) Jacob Reimer NYM, 3B, 20.1 – In last year’s FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, I named Jacob Reimer, Ignacio Alverez, Luke Adams, and Alex Freeland targets, calling them “deep league sleeper bats”, and 3 out of the 4 saw their values rise considerably this year (even Freeland was decent). Reimer had an excellent season at Single-A with a 129 wRC+ and 19.6%/14.1% K%/BB% in 75 games. Hit only 6 homers with a 47.1% GB%, but he’s a big boy at 6’2”, 200 pounds with plenty of raw power in the tank (and more coming down the line), so establishing such a strong plate approach is exciting. He didn’t hit as well when he got called up to High-A with a 89 wRC+ in 25 games, but he still had a strong 22.2%/17.2% K%/BB%. He just looked like a really solid hitter to me in his limited time in 2022, and he proved my eyes weren’t deceiving me with a really strong first full year in pro ball. Think something like Jeimer Candelario as a ceiling comp. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/20/77/.262/.332/.437/3
940) Jack Brannigan PIT, 3B, 23.1 – Brannigan is too old and showed too much swing and miss to go too crazy for his great year in the lower minors, but he undoubtedly had a great year, slashing .275/.390/.524 with 19 homers, 24 steals, and a 29.9%/14.2% K%/BB% in 87 games split between Single-A and High-A. His K% was even higher at High-A with a 33.5% K%, and he hit .177 with a 37.6% K% in 23 games in the AFL. He checked in at #946 on the 2023 Top 1,000, so he didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, and he played exactly to his scouting report with a plus power/speed combo and hit tool risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/15/58/.231/.312/.421/12
941) Mitch Jebb PIT, 2B/SS, 21.11 – Selected 42nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Jebb has a traditional leadoff hitter profile with plus hit, plus approach, double plus speed, and well below average power. He slashed .337/.438/.495 with 1 homer, 14 steals, and a 11.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 50 games in the Big Ten. The skills completely transferred to pro ball, slashing .297/.382/.398 with 1 homer, 11 steals, and a 7.2%/11.1% K%/BB% in 34 games at Single-A. He’s 6’1”, 185 pounds, so the raw power can certainly tick up from here, but it’s still a spray hitting, contact oriented approach. Even with the limited power, I like him as a later round speed target in medium to deeper leagues. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection:79/10/47/.257/.330/.391/24
942) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, 2B/SS, 19.6 – The 18-year-old Bergolla skipped right over stateside rookie and made his 2023 debut at Single-A. He has the type of precocious contact rates and mature plate approach where it made sense, and he didn’t disappoint in those areas with a 7.5%/13.2% K%/BB% in 55 games. He did disappoint overall though with 0 homers, 2 steals in 7 attempts, and a 84 wRC+. His lack of baserunning skills is a major problem, because he was never expected to hit for big power, and even his power is worse than expected. Luis Arraez is the wishcasting comp. 82/10/46/.288/.360/.398/9
943) Yandel Ricardo KCR, SS, 17.6 – The 6’2”, 185 pound Ricardo is a switch hitter with projectable size, plus athleticism, a good feel to hit, and a quick swing. Nothing is truly standout in his profile, but he does a lot of things very well and is expected to get one of the biggest bonuses in the class. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 77/20/77/.262/.331/.440/16
944) Jose Corniell TEX, RHP, 20.10 – Corniell had a breakout season with a 2.92 ERA and 29.8%/7.6% K%/BB% in 101.2 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The stuff is above average with a mid 90’s fastball, 2 potentially plus breaking balls and a developing changeup. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen, and I don’t necessarily see big upside, but there is mid-rotation potential if it all comes together. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.18/1.29/141 in 150 IP
945) Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.3 – It’s sad that Stowers is so blocked that it seems he has no shot on seeing the field no matter how much he rakes. I think he can be a legit power hitter if given the opportunity, but he is likely going to need to get out of Baltimore to get that chance. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 46/19/59/.238/.319/.472/1
946) Matt Sauer KCR, RHP, 25.2 – The Royals selected Sauer in the Rule 5 draft, and I love the pick for them. I’m the only person in the world who believes in him, and the Royals rotation and rotation depth are both truly cover your eyes horrific. This gives Sauer a much, much better chance of being given a shot to remain a starter. His career likely starts in the bullpen, and he’s only a flier even in deep leagues, but keep his name in mind if he ends up with a rotation spot at some point. He put up a 3.42 ERA with a 29.5%/10.3% K%/BB% in 68.1 IP at Double-A. He has an above average to plus fastball/slider combo, and has the strikeout upside to be worthy of cracking this list. 2024 Projection: 4/4.31/1.36/88 in 90 IP
947) Troy Melton DET, RHP, 23.4 – Melton pitched well in the lower minors with a 2.74 ERA and a 24.9%/6.4% K%/BB% in 92 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The strikeout rate immediately plummeted from 30% to 22.8% when he got to High-A, which isn’t great to see for an older pitcher, but he was able to maintain the plus control. The stuff is very good with a mid 90’s fastball, two breaking balls that have plus potential, and a solid changeup. If the production transfers to the upper minors, he could start to gain some legitimate hype. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.07/1.28/141 in 150 IP
948) Joander Suarez NYM, RHP, 24.1 – Suarez closed out the season at Double-A and put up a 0.00 ERA with a 32.2%/6.8% K%/BB% in 18 IP. He’s a big guy at 6’3”, 223 pounds and has legit stuff with a mid 90’s fastball, two good breaking balls, and a developing changeup. His numbers at High-A weren’t as good (5.08 ERA with a 29.3%/11.2% K%/BB% in 90.1 IP), so I wouldn’t get too excited, but I think he’s a legit MLB arm with mid-rotation upside. He’s underrated. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.32/137 in 150 IP
949) Keider Montero DET, RHP, 23.9 – Montero has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball, but the control is below average, and he got knocked around in the upper minors. He put up a 4.93 ERA with a 28.2%/9.2% K%/BB% in 111.1 IP at Double-A and Triple-A There is enticing K upside, but he can look at bit reliever-ish out there. 2024 Projection: 1/4.09/1.33/31 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 3/3.68/1.26/71 in 65 IP
950) Yoniel Curet TBR, RHP, 21.5 – The thick 6’2” Curet throws an absolutely electric mid to upper 90’s fastball that explodes out of his hand. Lower minors hitters were completely overmatched by the pitch. He put up a 2.94 ERA with a 33.3%/16.9% K%/BB% in 104 IP at mostly Single-A. He combines the double plus fastball with an above average slider and developing changeup. The control is well below average and he looks like a future reliever out there, but maybe Tampa improves the control enough to be a 5 IP starter down the line. He could be someone they start in the bullpen and then transition into a starter in his mid to late 20’s. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 7/3.71/1.31/125 in 120 IP
951) Jhancarlos Lara ATL, RHP, 21.2 – Lara is 6’3”, 190 pounds with big stuff (mid 90’s fastball with a slider that flashes plus), but the control needs improvement and he needs to work on his changeup. He put up a 4.09 ERA with a 33.1%/12.2% K%/BB% in 81.1 IP at mostly Single-A. He definitely looks reliever-ish out there on the mound right now, but he’s still young, and he has upside in any role. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 7/3.95/1.34/128 in 120 IP
952) Santiago Suarez TBR, RHP, 19.2 – Santiago has produced everywhere he’s been in his young career. He put up a 2.31 ERA with a 24.8%/3.9% K%/BB% in 39 IP in the DSL in 2022, a 1.13 ERA with a 25.3%/5.3% K%/BB% in 39.2 IP at stateside rookie ball this year, and then closed out the season at Single-A where he put up a 2.29 ERA with a 17.1%/3.7% K%/BB% in 19.2 IP. Those walk numbers are elite, and he has good supporting skills as well with a low to mid 90’s fastball, good curve, and developing changeup. He also has good size at 6’2”, 175 pounds. As is, it’s a back end profile, but he’s only 19 years old, so improvement to his velocity and secondaries could vault him to the next level. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/4.05/1.24/135 in 150 IP
953) David Sandlin BOS, RHP, 23.1- Sandlin dominated Single-A with a 3.38 ERA and 33.5%/5.5% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP, but he was old for the level and his 2 starts at High-A weren’t nearly as impressive with a 4.50 ERA and 8/5 K/BB in 8 IP. He then got shutdown for the season with a lat strain. The stuff is good with an above average to plus fastball/slider combo and a changeup that flashes plus. Even in the lower minors, those kind of K/BB numbers, combined with good stuff is very interesting. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.28/132 in 145 IP
954) Stiven Martinez BAL, OF, 16.10 – Martinez is a very projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with a vicious righty swing that has monster power potential written all over it. He’s also an excellent athlete with speed and the ability to play CF. This is the type of plus power/speed combo that fantasy managers drool over. The hit tool and plate approach are still unrefined, so there is a lot of risk here, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 73/23/79/.244/.317/.449/16
955) Kyle Isbel KCR, OF, 27.1 – Isbel is a good defensive CF, which could keep him on the field, but his bat is rough. He put up a 75 wRC+ with a .289 xwOBA in 313 PA. he doesn’t hit for much power or speed with 5 homers and 7 steals. I wouldn’t count on his defense keeping him a starter. 2024 Projection: 38/8/34/.251/.305/.395/8
956) Jake Meyers HOU, OF, 27.10 – Meyers has a plus CF glove which can get him on the field, but he’s a bad hitter with a 88 wRC+, 86 MPH EV, and 25.8%/7.6% K%/BB% in 112 games. He’s fast with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, but he’s not a good base stealer with only 5 steals. Even with playing time you don’t really want to be running him out there. 2024 Projection: 36/8/29/.233/.305/.385/6
957) Dairon Blanco KCR, OF, 30.11 – Blanco was a 30 year old rookie, but some of that was because he didn’t come stateside until he was 25 years old from Cuba, and he has a very interesting fantasy profile. He has truly elite speed with a 30.3 ft/sec sprint, and he used that speed to steal 24 bags in just 138 PA. He’s also a good defensive player, so his glove could get him on the field. The plate approach is average at best with a 23.9%/7.2% K%/BB%, and the power is below average with a 86.7 MPH EV, but he’s an interesting speed play in deep leagues, and I wouldn’t completely rule out him getting a ton of run in CF, even though I wouldn’t bet on it. 2024 Projection: 31/5/26/.256/.322/.395/25
958) Eddys Leonard DET, SS, 23.5 – Javier Baez is in free fall, and if that continues, Leonard could be next man up at SS for Detroit. He had a solid year in the upper minors, slashing .269/.342/.447 with 19 homers, 5 steals, and a 21.8%/8.2% K%/BB% in 132 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hits the ball reasonably hard with a 90.4 MPH EV at AAA. The hit tool is average at best, the groundball rates are on the high side, and he doesn’t have speed, so this isn’t a high upside profile even if he does work his way into playing time. 2024 Projection: 11/3/11/.240/.306/.390/1 Prime Projection: 63/16/68/.253/.321/.419/3
959) Casey Schmitt SFG, 3B/SS, 25.1 – There was excitement around Schmitt after his big Spring Training, and then again after he got off to a hot start in his MLB debut in May, but I never really fully bought into it, and by the end of the season he was who I thought he was. And that is a glove first player who isn’t really a target in fantasy. He ended up with a lowly 59 wRC+ and 5 homers in 277 MLB PA, and he wasn’t that good at Triple-A either with a 88 wRC+ and 4 homers in 47 games. The plate approach is rough with a 38.5% Chase% in the majors, and the power is mediocre with a 87.2 MPH EV in the minors. Tack on San Francisco’s extreme pitcher’s park, plus their undying loyalty to platoons, and Schmitt is someone I’ll continue to shy away from. 2024 Projection: 31/7/37/.238/.295/.402/2
960) Peyton Graham DET, SS, 23.2 – Graham had an underwhelming first full year of pro ball with 4 homers and a 95 wRC+ in 54 games at Single-A. That is a level he should have handled easily, and he didn’t make it look easy. It wasn’t a total nightmare with a solid 22.2%/11.7% K%/BB% and 15 steals, but he just didn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 85.8 MPH EV. The good news is that he has plenty of room to tack on mass at 6’3”, 185 pounds, so hopefully he’s hitting the weight room hard this off-season. If he can naturally gain more raw power, I definitely think a real breakout can still be in the cards. I would hold onto Graham for one more year if you can. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/16/64/.248/.323/.431/21
961) Yunior Severino MIN, 3B/2B, 24.6 – Severino does one thing well, and one thing only, and that is hit for massive power with 35 homers in 120 games in the upper minors. The strikeout rate is extremely high at 32.8%, the groundball rates are on the high side, and he’s not a good defensive player. He’s probably a bench power bat, but he’s young enough and close enough to the majors for his elite power to get him on this list. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 34/11/39/.222/.297/.436/3
962) Tanner Schobel MIN, 3B/2B, 22.10 – Schobel’s numbers dropped off hard when he got to Double-A with a 75 wRC+, 2 homers, and 3 steals in 49 games, and it’s kinda turned me off him. The upside isn’t huge with an average at best hit/power combo, and while he’s fast, he hasn’t run a ton even going back to college. Then tack on the huge production drop when he finally faced advanced pitching, and it’s not a profile I’m going after. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/13/59/.257/.328/.416/15
963) Jeral Perez LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 19.5 – Perez’ destruction of rookie ball (11 homers with a 120 wRC+ in 53 games) earned him a promotion to Single-A where he more than held his own with a 118 wRC+ and 22.2%/18.5% K%/BB% in 7 games. He doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen with a thick and stocky build, and he’s not a huge tools guy, but he’s done nothing but produce as every level, including the DSL in 2022 (130 wRC+). He has a mature plate approach, he lifts the ball, and he’s in a great organization, so he should be able to get the most of his talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/19/74/.245/.323/.430/8
964) Yiddi Cappe MIA, 2B/SS, 21.6 – Cappe got off to a hot start at High-A with a .938 OPS and 3 homers in his first 19 games, but he fell off a cliff after that and finished with a 55 wRC+ and 5 homers in 123 games overall. He still surely looks the part at a smooth and athletic 6’3”, 175 pounds. He also had strong contact rates (19% K%) with plus speed (18 steals). He needs to get stronger to actually do damage when he makes contact, and he needs to refine his plate approach (3.4%), but considering he will be the same age as most of the college kids in the 2024 draft class, I wouldn’t rule out him making those improvements. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/14/66/.244/.306/.412/18
965) Dyan Jorge COL, SS, 21.0 – Jorge’s production dropped off a cliff when he got to full season ball with his wRC+ dropping from 178 in 21 games in rookie ball to 82 in 49 games at Single-A. Considering he was 20 years old, it’s pretty discouraging, but there is still enough to dream on to crack this list. He’s a skinny 6’3”, 170 pounds with plenty of room to tack on muscle. Even with his struggles at Single-A, he still got the bat on the ball with a 16.3% K% (.283 BA) and showed off his speed with 10 steals. If the power ticks up (3 homers in 70 total games), the upside is immense. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/13/61/.256/.312/.401/21
966) Austin Gauthier LAD, 2B/3B/SS, 24.11 – The 24 year old Gauthier got a lot more interesting when he got called up to Double-A and kept the production up, slashing .293/.411/.433 with 6 homers, 14 steals, and a 13.8%/16.3% K%/BB% in 84 games. Even at an advanced age, that plate approach is extremely impressive, and he combines that with good baserunning skills and some pop. He’s most likely a bench bat, but if he can start lifting and pulling the ball more, which we’ve seen these types make that adjustment before, he could end up a being a problem. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 48/9/42/.262/.333/.407/9
967) Pedro Ramirez CHC, 2B/3B, 20.0 – Ramirez put up a strong 119 wRC+ in 104 games as a young 19 year old at Single-A, but I’m not seeing big upside to really go after. He hit only 8 homers and he’s only 5’8”, so power isn’t going to be a major part of his game. The hit tool is good, but it’s not great with a .266 BA and 17.1%/11.8% K%/BB%, and he has speed, but 17 steals in 24 attempts isn’t standout. He’s also not a SS, so the glove might not get him on the field either. His contact, speed, and age are good enough to keep him interesting, but only as a safe infield glove towards the bottom of your farm system. ETA: 2026 Prime Prime Projection: 66/8/45/.262/.327/.396/14
968) Eddinson Paulino BOS, SS/3B/2B, 21.9 – Paulino is trending towards a bench utility player. He’s not a good defensive player, which is really the biggest issue for his profile, and he doesn’t have a standout offensive skill. What he does have is a smooth and sweet lefty swing, and it produced at High-A, slashing .257/.338/.421 with 12 homers, 26 steals, and a 22.6%/10.0% K%/BB% in 115 games. He’s not a burner and the power is currently below average. He needs an uptick in power to really become anything more than a flier type prospect. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 51/12/46/.259/.328/.416/9
969) Jared Serna NYY, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Serna was putting up video game numbers at Single-A with 19 homers, 19 steals, and a 16.9% K% in 95 games at Single-A, but he wasn’t able to keep up the power when he got to the more age appropriate High-A with 0 homers in 27 games. He was able to keep up the speed (10 steals) and contact rates (12.5%), but at only 5’6”, the High-A power numbers are probably closer to his true talent level. He’s likely a utility infielder who will have to earn it every step of the way. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 46/8/38/.258/.319/.389/13
970) Shay Whitcomb HOU, SS, 25.6 – Whitcomb was a 24 year old at Triple-A who put up a 62 wRC+ with a 31.1%/6.1% K%/BB% in 87 games. That is horrific, and he’s not young enough to really bank on future improvement. He’s a good athlete, he has plus power, and he’s put up really fun homer/speed totals in his minor league career (35 homers with 20 steals in 118 games in 2023), so sometimes these types can breakout in their late 20’s. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 28/11/34/.221/.297/.429/6
971) Emeliano Teodo TEX, RHP, 23.1 – Teodo is likely a reliever long term, but it’s potentially elite high leverage reliever stuff. The sinker sits in the upper 90’s and the breaking ball is plus. A plus to double plus sinker/breaking ball combo with below average control is very easy to envision in the back of a bullpen. He showed what that could look like in the AFL with a 0.00 ERA and 19/3 K/BB in 11 IP over 8 outings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.42/1.18/78/30 saves in 65 IP
972) Ronan Kopp LAD, LHP, 21.8 – Kopp is likely a reliever long term, and he has the attributes to be a damn good one. He’s 6’7”, 250 pounds with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus slider. The control is well below average and the changeup isn’t great, which is what makes his likely role in the bullpen. He was in the bullpen in the AFL and put up a 1.13 ERA with a 15/6 K/BB in 8 IP over 7 outings. He pitched in short outings during the regular season too and had a 2.99 ERA with a 35.8%/16.7% K%BB% in 72.1 IP at High-A. We’ve seen LA work magic with drastically improving a pitchers control in the past, so that is what he needs to do to remain a starter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.46/1.23/80 in 65 IP
973) Michael Arias CHC, RHP, 22.4 – Arias has an athletic and funky delivery with a plus mid 90’s fastball to go along with a solid slider and changeup. It resulted in a 4.09 ERA with a 31.3% K% in 81.1 IP at Single-A and High-A. The control is bad enough with a 14.5% BB% that the bullpen is his most likely role, but he has the type of stuff to be high leverage reliever. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.66/1.27/73 in 65 IP
974) Cody Bradford TEX, LHP, 26.1 – Bradford looks like he’s locking himself into that 5th starter job in Texas, but he’s only a medium to deeper league play if you are desperate for starting pitching. He’s a plus control, low 90’s guy with an above average changeup as his best secondary. He talked about exclusively working out of the stretch as he’s prepared to both start and work out of the bullpen at a moments notice. Jack Leiter can also come for that 5th starter job at any time. 2024 Projection: 5/4.39/1.32/82 100 IP
975) Jacob Lopez TBR, LHP, 26.1 – Some of this ranking is betting on Tampa magic because a 26 year old pitcher with a 90.8 MPH fastball isn’t exactly all that enticing, but Lopez has things to like even without Tampa. He dominated Double-A with a 2.57 ERA and 41.7%/8.3% K%/BB% in 28 IP, and while he wasn’t as good at Triple-A with the automated strike zone (26%/14% K%/BB%), he still had a 2.72 ERA in 79.1 IP. The slider is a bat missing weapon and put up a 41.4% whiff% in his 12.1 IP MLB debut. He held his own in the majors overall with a 4.38 ERA and 14.8%/3.7% K%/BB%. He’s the type that pitches well out of the bullpen and then Tampa turns him into an ace at 30 years old out of nowhere. 2024 Projection: 2/4.23/1.32/44 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 7/3.93/1.28/115 in 120 IP
976) Mike Vasil NYM, RHP, 24.0 – Vasil is a back end starter proximity play with solid but not standout stuff. He put up a 5.30 ERA with a 24.9%/11.7% K%/BB% in 73 IP at Triple-A, but he was better at Double-A without the automated strike zone with a 3.71 ERA and 28.9%/4.1% K%/BB% in 51 IP. The fastball sits about 93 MPH and he throws a diverse pitch mix. 2024 Projection: 1/4.68/1.42/36 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.31/1.34/138 in 150 IP
977) Zack Showalter STL, RHP, 20.2 – Showalter has a plus low to mid 90’s fastball that he throws with a kinda odd delivery that hides the ball really well. He also mixes in a solid slider and developing changeup. He was pitching well at Single-A before getting shutdown with an undisclosed injury on August 8th, putting up a 3.10 ERA with a 28.1%/11.2% K%/BB% in 20.1 IP. There is obviously a long way to go, but the fastball alone makes him interesting. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/4.04/1.29/139 in 145 IP
978) Juaron Watts-Brown TOR, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 89th overall, Watts-Brown didn’t have the best year in college (5.03 ERA in 82.1 IP) with a low 90’s fastball, but he’s an excellent athlete and he still has room on his 6’3”, 190 pound frame to level up again in pro ball. His plus slider is a true out pitch that he goes to often, and despite the low velocity on the fastball, it looks pretty electric coming out of his hand. He also throws a curve and change. He missed a ton of bats with a 33% K%, so the ERA is certainly inflated. If he can improve his control (12.8% BB%) and/or add a tick or two to the fastball, he has some real upside in the tank. As is, he might be more of a #4 type. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/155 in 150 IP
979) Max Anderson DET, 2B, 22.1 – Selected 45h overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Anderson had an absolutely beastly junior year, slashing .414/.461/.771 with 21 homers, 0 steals, and a 29/20 K/BB in 57 games. He doesn’t necessarily look the part at a wide 6’0”, 215 pounds with little to no speed, and he has an aggressive plate approach, but he has legitimate all fields power with plus contact rates. I would have liked to see more power in his pro debut with only 2 homers in 32 games at Single-A, but he generally hit well with a 17.9% K%, .790 OPS, and 112 wRC+. The hit/power combo from a fast moving college bat is worth a later round pick in deeper leagues. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/20/74/.263/.322/.437/2
980) Cristian Mena ARI, RHP, 21.3 – Mena looks the part at a projectable 6’2” with an athletic delivery, and he also has youth on his side as a 20 year old in the upper minors, but his stuff is really more of a back end profile. He got hit around with a 4.85 ERA and 156/64 K/BB in 133.2 IP at mostly Double-A. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s and the control is below average. He gets whiffs with his plus breaking ball, but he needs to improve his control/command and add velocity to take the next step. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.20/1.33/145 in 150 IP
981) Gino Groover ARI, 3B, 22.0 – Selected 48th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Groover is a complete hitter and rock solid college bat, but the power/speed combo leaves a little something to be desired. He slashed .332/.430/.546 with 13 homers, 2 steals, and a 26/36 K/BB in 57 games in the ACC. He then stepped into pro ball and showed off those same excellent hitting skills with a 9.0%/8.0% K%/BB% in 23 games at High-A, but it came with only 1 homer and 1 steal. It was good for a below average 97 wRC+. He’s 6’2”, 212 pounds, so there is more raw power in the tank, but it’s not like there aren’t a million “not small” guys who just don’t hit for big power, so I’m not really assuming some big power jump in the future. The deeper the league, the more I would like him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/18/75/.263/.332/.421/4
982) Matthew Etzel BAL, OF, 21.11 – Selected 301st overall, Etzel’s college numbers don’t jump off the screen with 7 homers, 23 steals, and a .853 OPS in 66 games in the non major Sun Belt Conference, but he has the type of skills that can produce everywhere he plays, rather than the type that will dominate levels. He hits the ball hard with above average speed, a solid feel to hit, and good CF defense. He played well in pro ball, slashing .323/.455/.510 with 2 homers, 21 steals, and a 23/21 K/BB in 30 games at mostly Single-A. He hasn’t completely tapped into his raw power yet, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues, and at 6’2”, 211 pounds, he certainly has the size. He’s much better than his draft selection would indicate. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.261/.324/.421/17
983) Carson Roccaforte KCR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 66th overall, Roccaforte has a very similar profile to Matthew Etzel. They both came from the Sun Belt Conference, and they both hit the ball hard with above average speed and a solid feel to hit. He didn’t blow the doors off in his pro debut, but he was solid, slashing .257/.377/.356 with 0 homers, 11 steals, and a 25.4%/15.6% K%/BB% in 21 games at Single-A. He hit 24 homers in 123 games over his last 2 years in college, but he struggled in the wood bat Cape Cod league in 2022 with 0 homers in 22 games, and then he again hit 0 homers with wood bats in his pro debut, so homer power is concern. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/14/61/.255/.320/.412/15
984) Jack Hurley ARI, OF, 22.0 – Selected 80th overall, the 6’0”, 185 pound Hurley’s power ticked up this year with 17 homers in just 45 games in the ACC, but the plate approach didn’t follow suit with a mediocre 40/20 K/BB. Those plate approach issues reared their ugly head in pro ball too with a 28.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A, and the power wasn’t as big either with 1 homer. The profile is fantasy friendly with a potentially above average power/speed combo (10 steals in his pro debut), but the plate approach needs to take a big step forward. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/17/73/.244/.317/.420/13
985) Sabin Ceballos ATL, 3B, 21.7 – Selected 94th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Ceballos is 6’3”, 225 pounds with plus power. He ripped 18 homers in 59 games in the Pac12, and he did it with an excellent 14.1%/13.3% K%/BB%. He’s also an excellent defense player at 3B with a big arm. He showed some hit tool risk in his pro debut with a 31.4% K% in 9 games at Single-A, and he doesn’t have speed, but he’s an excellent underrated FYPD college power bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/23/78/.250/.320/.439/2
986) Jace Bohrofen TOR, OF, 22.5 – Selected 184th overall, Bohrofen has an easy and quick lefty swing that produces plus power from his strong 6’2”, 205 pound frame. He crushed 16 homers in 60 games in the SEC, and then he crushed 6 homers in 17 games at Single-A. The hit tool is risky with a 23.6% K% in college, but it’s a good sign it didn’t get out of control in pro ball with a 23.4%/19.5% K%/BB%. He destroyed pro ball in general with a 189 wRC+. He won’t really be tested until he faces upper minors competition, but Bohrofen has a chance to be a legit impact power bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/23/77/.245/.322/.438/3
987) Nehomar Ochoa HOU, OF, 18.8 – Selected 344th overall, Ochoa is 6’4”, 210 pounds with big raw power, and he showed that off immediately in pro ball with 3 homers and a 29.2% GB% in 12 games in rookie ball. He also showed a good feel to hit with a 16.7% K%, and he’s very young for his class. He’s playing in the Australian Winter League right now where he’s over 7 years younger than average, and he’s not embarrassing himself with a .648 OPS in 24 games. His bat looks legit. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.263/.321/.445/4
988) Angel Mateo TBR, OF, 18.7 – A 96 wRC+ in 48 games at stateside rookie ball isn’t anything to write home about, but Mateo is a toolshed at 6’2”, 190 pounds, and the individual components look better with 4 homers, 12 steals, and an 18.3%/7.1% K%/BB%. He closed the season out at Single-A showing off his risk with a 31.1% K% in 12 games, but his upside is worth keeping on your radar. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/18/68/.248/.319/.428/14
989) Arnaldo Lantigua LAD, OF, 18.4 – Lantigua was one of the top power breakouts in the DSL, smacking 7 homers with a 21.8%/15.1% K%/BB% in just 29 games. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds and was a relatively highly thought of international signing. He hit only .222 and the 113 wRC+ doesn’t standout, but he has the talent to start popping when he comes stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.242/.323/.447/8
990) Chase Jaworksy HOU, SS, 19.8 – Selected 164th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Jaworsky is a projectable and athletic 6’1, 170 pounds with a potentially plus power/speed combo. He showed a strong plate approach in his pro debut with a 15.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 9 games, and he has a big lefty swing that can definitely do damage to go along with plus speed. It’s nice when you can piggyback a strong organization like Houston for a prospect like this. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/20/76/.253/.326/.440/10
991) Aidan Smith SEA, OF, 19.8 – Selected 124th overall and signed for $1.2 million, Smith is a great athlete at 6’3”, 190 pounds with plus power potential and plus run times, but his swing isn’t geared for homers right now and he also has hit tool risk. He had a strong pro debut in rookie ball with a 128 wRC+, but it mostly came on the back of a .400 BABIP and 20% BB% in 8 games. He then went to Single-A and struggled with a 60 wRC+ and 29.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 12 games. There is a lot of refinement needed to his launch and hit tool, but you are betting on the athlete that he makes those improvements. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 67/18/71/.247/.319/.426/11
992) Mario Baez ATL, SS, 17.7 – Baez was 16 for almost the entire year in the DSL, and he killed it, slashing .311/.393/.422 with 3 homers, 24 steals, and a 12.4%/9.7% K%/BB% in 47 games. He’s a thick but athletic 5’9”, so I definitely think there is real juice in his bat. The hit tool looked good and he has speed too. He definitely has the look of a player who can overcome his small stature and be a truly impact bat. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/21/78/.267/.332/.437/14
993) Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 – Baez’ numbers didn’t stand out with a 71 wRC+ in 40 games at stateside rookie ball, but his explosive righty swing most certainly stands out. He’s already putting up big EV numbers. He also showed a solid plate approach with a 17.5%/11.9% K%/BB% and no major groundball issues with a 43.9% GB%. The power is most certainly coming. He doesn’t have much speed and he’s a stocky-ish 5’9”, so we aren’t talking about a ton of upside, but an above average hit/power combo at peak is within reach. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/20/79/.268/.334/.433/6
994) Jhonny Severino PIT, SS, 19.5 – Severino is an athletic power hitting middle infielder at 6’2”, and he started to tap into that power in 2023 with 5 homers in 15 games in stateside rookie ball. The plate approach is very rough, both this year, and in the DSL in 2022, so the hit tool is high risk. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/23/79/.242/.317/.442/8
995) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.10 – The 6’1”, 175 pound Bastardo has an athletic delivery and above average stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and two good secondaries in his changeup and breaking ball. He pitched well at High-A with a 4.62 ERA (3.66 xFIP) and 31.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 103.1 IP before getting knocked around at Double-A to end the season (5.63 ERA with a 14.5%/13% K%/BB% in 16 IP). He needs to improve his control/command and refine his secondaries to beat his current back end starter projection: ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 7/4.24/1.34/125 in 140 IP
996) Darren Bowen MIN, RHP, 23.2 – Bowen purely makes this list because he looks the part, and Minnesota obviously thinks they can turn his talent into production. He’s a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds with a highly athletic delivery and good stuff. He’s already 23 years old though, so it’s not like it’s a projectable high school kid, and the numbers weren’t that great at Single-A with a 3.88 ERA and 25.7%/10.9% K%/BB% in 55.2 IP. The fastball sits mid 90’s and the two breaking balls miss bats. If he was younger or if his stats were much better against much inferior competition at Single-A it would be easy to love him, but I don’t want to fly a guy up my rankings because he proverbially looks great in the uniform. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 8/4.33/1.35/120 in 140 IP
997) Isiah Kiner Falefa TOR, 3B/OF, 29.0 – Falefa is a super utility player who could work his way into playing time with Toronto’s currently weak infield situation. He gets the bat on the ball (15.5% career K%) and is a good base stealer (14 steals in 361 PA in 2023). The stolen bases will make him relevant even in shallower leagues if he gets on the field. 2024 Projection: 36/5/31/.258/.310/.355/13
998) Luis Urias SEA, 2B/3B, 26.10 – The Polanco trade puts Urias into a short side of a platoon role. He suffered a severe hamstring strain right at the start of the season that kept him out for 2 months, and then it was a straight disaster after that with an 83 wRC+ in 52 games in the majors, and a 86 wRC+ in 29 games after getting demoted to Triple-A. A mature plate approach is basically all he has with a 23.2%/11.9% K%/BB%. He has no speed and his power never ticked up beyond below average. If his power does tick up in his late 20’s, he has the launch to take advantage of it with a 14.7 degree launch, but holding your breath for that power uptick doesn’t seem wise at only 5’9”. 2024 Projection: 38/9/34/.235/.330/.397/2
999) Ernie Clement TOR, SS, 28.0 – Clement had a 5% K% and 136 wRC+ in 320 PA at Triple-A, then he had a 7.7% K% and 144 wRC+ in 52 PA in the majors, and now he has a 2.7% K%, 3 homers, and a 1.045 OPS in 37 spring PA. It might be time we start taking notice. He ripped his 3rd homer yesterday at only 97.7 MPH, but he pulled it and he lifted it. We know the pull, lift, contact trifecta can overcome a poor EV, and Clement is definitely in that category. He doesn’t have a full time job, but there are jobs to be won in Toronto’s infield, and he very well has a chance of being the guy who emerges. Keep an eye on him at the least. 2024 Projection: 30/7/30/.260/.315/.400/6
1000) Joshua Palacios PIT, OF, 28.8 – Palacios is currently penciled in as a strong side of a platoon player, but he’s going to struggle to even lock that role in. He hits it hard with a 91.3 MPH EV, and he has some speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint, but the plate approach (21.2%/4.5% K%/BB%) and launch (7.7 degree launch) are both well below average. He’s a very deep league option only. 2024 Projection: 28/7/36/.246/.299/.418/5
1001) Mickey Moniak PHI, OF, 25.11 – Moniak hit 14 homers with a 12.6% Barrel%, 6 steals and a 114 wRC+ in 85 MLB games, but I don’t see how he holds down a starting job with a 35%/2.8% K%/BB%. He’s a strong side platoon bat at best, and not a major leaguer at worst. 2024 Projection: 27/9/34/.240/.289/.410/5
1002) Andy Ibanez DET, 2B/OF, 31.0 – Ibanez is an aging short side of a platoon bench bat, but he has a big enough contact/power profile to be rosterable in deep daily leagues or if an injury opens up PT. He hit hell in 2023 with an 18% K%, 9% Barrel%, and 89.1 MPH EV. It was good for a well above average .331 xwOBA. The 92.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 12.9 degree launch cap his homer power upside, so he just cracked this list by the skin of his teeth. 2024 Projection: 31/8/35/.254/.312/.420/2
1003) Abraham Toro OAK, 3B, 27.3 – I guess Toro can be fantasy relevant by default with little competition for the 3B job in Oakland, but even if he does manage to win and hold onto the job all season, he’s not going to make much of an impact. He’s always put up below average EV’s and he hit only 8 homers in 96 games at Triple-A this year. He’s not a big base stealer (10 steals in 934 career MLB PA), and the hit tool isn’t good (.211 career BA) despite solid contact rates. He’s also a below average defensive player. He really shouldn’t be on this list, but he’s penciled in as Oakland’s starting 3B right now. 2024 Projection: 39/8/43/.234/.309/.387/7
1004) Patrick Wisdom CHC, 3B, 32.7 – Wisdom crushes homers, and that is it. He hit 23 homers in only 302 PA in 2023 on the back of a 92.7 MPH EV and 21.7 degree launch. He does everything else terribly though. He had a .205 BA with a 36.8% K% and he’s a poor defensive player. The power is massive enough to give him value in daily deeper leagues, but that is it. 2024 Projection: 38/20/45/.215/.304/.451/3
1005) Manuel Margot LAD, OF, 29.6 – Margot is a bench OF with a short side of a platoon role at best. He’s an aging speed play whose speed has been declining, and his modest stolen base totals are even more watered down with the new rules. He needs injuries to be fantasy relevant. 2024 Projection: 33/6/29/.265/.315/.385/10
1006) Enmanuel Valdez BOS, 2B, 25.3 – The Grissom trade basically locks Valdez into a bench role at best. He hit well in the minors, like he’s done basically every year of his career, with 10 homers, a 20.7%/17.7% K%/BB% and 118 wRC+ in 57 games at Triple-A. He also had a strong MLB debut with a 102 wRC+ in 149 PA, but there just isn’t a standout skill for you to really hang your hat on. The hit tool is average at best with a 24.8% K%, the plate approach didn’t transfer to the majors at all with a 5.4% BB%, he’s slow with a 26.4 ft/sec sprint, the power is average at best with a 87.5 MPH EV (87.6 at AAA), and he was a below average defensive player. He’s hit at literally every level he’s played at, including the majors, so I don’t want to fade him too much, but the upside and playing time projection is holding me back. 2024 Projection: 31/8/34/.248/.326/.427/4
1007) Jake Bauers MIL, 1B/OF, 28.5 – Bauers will be in a platoon role at best, and he’s probably more of a bench bat. He’s got power with 12 homers and an 89.1 MPH EV in 272 PA, but it comes with major hit tool issues (.211 BA in 1398 career PA). 2024 Projection: 32/9/35/.218/.300/.400/4
1008) Pedro Leon HOU, OF/2B, 25.10 – Leon probably doesn’t deserve to crack this list. He put up an 88 wRC+ with 84.8 MPH EV and 28.4% K% in 128 games at Triple-A as a 24/25 year old. He has more raw power than the EV indicates and he pulls the ball a ton, so he gets the most of his power with 21 homers. He also has plus speed with 21 steals. It’s a fantasy friendly profile if he can work his way into playing time, but he might not be able to even hit .200, and others have passed him in the organization. 2024 Projection: 7/1/9/.215/.282/.355/2
1009) Grant McCray SFG, OF, 23.4 – A 29.3% K% as a 22 year old at High-A in 127 games makes McCray very, very high risk, but he has the power/speed combo to hang onto until we see what he can do in the upper minors. He has average to above average power potential with 14 homers, and he has plus speed with 52 steals. He’s also a patient hitter with a 12.3% BB%. It was good for a 114 wRC+. The upside is there, but the hit tool is going to have to take a major step forward to be a full time player. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 44/9/38/.238/.317/.408/16
1010) Kemp Alderman MIA, OF, 21.7 – Selected 47th overall, Alderman’s pro debut was bad enough to completely scare me away. He put up a 68 wRC+ with a 29.3%/5.3% K%/BB% in 34 games at Single-A. That is a level he should have handled easily. I really liked him before the debut, so I don’t want to completely ignore him either though. He is 6’3”, 250 pounds, but it’s not a sloppy 250, it’s an edge rushing linebacker type 250. He swings the bat like it’s a tooth pick with double plus power that led to 19 homers in 54 games in the SEC. Considering he’s relatively young for his class, his size, athleticism, and power, I can overlook some of that pro debut, but not all of it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 51/18/63/.242/.314/.448/5
1011) Sammy Stafura CIN, SS, 19.4 – Selected 43rd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Stafura had one of those disaster pro debuts that makes you want to stay away in first year player drafts. He put a 43.4% K%, .071 BA and 7 wRC+ in 12 games. It’s a small sample and I’m sure he’ll be better in the future, but when past high school bats put up such extreme K rates in their debuts, they usually continue to have hit tool risk to some degree going forward. He’s a toolsy SS at 6’0”, 187 pounds, but he doesn’t necessarily knock your socks off when watching him, so the extreme hit tool problems are extra worrisome. There is plus speed and the potential for average to above average power in the future, but he was supposed to also have a good feel to hit, and he clearly has a long way to go in that department. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/16/66/.241/.316/.416/19
1012) David Hamilton BOS, SS, 26.6 – Boston doesn’t really seem to believe in Hamilton for anything other than a utility role. I thought there was a chance he could have been a legit impact fantasy player if given the opportunity, but all signs point towards him not getting the opportunity. Even in a utility role, he has the speed (29.2 ft/sec sprint) and base stealing skills (57 steals in 103 games at Triple-A) to be relevant in many leagues. He also hit 17 homer at Triple-A, and had a 89 MPH EV with a 17.7 degree launch, 20% whiff%, and 15.4% BB%% in 39 MLB PA. I thought he had the lift, contact, OBP, speed profile to be a true player. 2024 Projection: 21/4/17/.242/.318/.409/9
1013) Tyler Fitzgerald SFG, SS/OF, 26.7 – Fitzgerald put up fun numbers at Triple-A with 20 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.8%/9.7% K%/BB% in 102 games, but he was 25 years old, and he has below average exit velocity numbers and a below average hit tool. He put up a 86.6 MPH EV at AAA and a 29.4%/5.9% K%/BB% in his 34 PA MLB debut. He has elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint, and he has a lift/pull profile which gets the most of his raw power, but it seems SF views him as a super utility player/depth piece. 2024 Projection: 18/3/15/.231/.293/.398/7
1014) Trevor Larnach MIN, OF, 27.1 – Larnach is a poor defensive player, which keeps his bat off the field, and he has a terrible hit tool with a 34% K% and .213 BA. He has easy plus power with a 90.1 MPH EV and 17.5 degree launch, and he gets on base with a 12.7% BB%, but he needs a lot to happen to end up with a strong side of a platoon job. 2024 Projection: 25/8/36/.225/.315/.420/1
1015) Juan Baez MIL, 3B/SS, 18.9 – Baez broke out in stateside rookie ball with a 11.2% K%, 4 homers and 17 steals in 48 games. Milwaukee was impressed enough to give him some run at Single-A to close out the season, and while he only had a 65 wRc+ in 9 games, the 11.8% K% was impressive. He’s not a big guy and he doesn’t jump off the screen at 5’9”, 175 pounds, but you gotta respect those contact/speed numbers with some pop as a 17/18 year old. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/12/55/.271/.325/.401/18
1016) Willy Vasquez TBR, 3B/2B, 22.7 – A 93 wRC+ in 114 games at High-A as a 21 year old probably shouldn’t be good enough to crack this list, but Vasquez’ athleticism at 6’2”, 191 pounds keeps him on it. He put up a 23.1%/9.7% K%/BB% with 16 homers and 17 steals, which isn’t bad taken on it’s own. He needs to gain strength and start hitting the ball harder, along with refining all parts of his game, but his upside is worth staying patient with for one more year in deeper leagues. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 53/10/46/.243/.311/.409/13
1017) Elias Medina LAD, 3B/SS, 18.5 – Medina was a DSL breakout, slashing .313/.381/.553 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 21%/9.1% K%/BB% in 44 games. He’s not a huge guy at 5’10”, but there is definitely some explosion in his game with a potential above average to plus power/speed combo. The plate approach and hit tool need refinement, but he’s one to at least keep an eye on as he comes stateside in 2024. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/18/73/.243/.317/.421/22
1018) Brady Smith LAD, RHP, 19.2 – Selected 95th overall, Smith is almost purely a bet on the Dodgers. He’s a projectable 6’2”, 170 pounds with a low 90’s fastball and 3 secondaries that all flash well in his slider, curve and changeup. If you’re going to take a shot on a toolsy high school pitcher, why not let the Dodgers do the development for you. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.29/160 in 160 IP
1019) Cole Schoenwetter CIN, RHP, 19.6 – Selected 105th overall, Schoenwetter is 6’3”, 190 pounds with an easy and repeatable delivery that he coolly fires a plus fastball/curve combo with. The fastball sits mid 90’s and the curve is a beauty with traditional curve shape. He needs a ton of refinement in basically all areas of pitching (control/command, changeup, holding his stuff deeper into starts, consistency etc …), but if it all comes together, he can become a hyped pitching prospect. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/3.95/1.32/158 in 155 IP
1020) Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 20.1 – Susana was a favorite breakout pick of mine coming into the season with the Hunter Greene starter pack, and unfortunately, that pack is still sitting in the plastic, waiting to be put together. He put up a 5.14 ERA with a 21.8%/14.1% K%/BB% in 63 IP at Single-A. The huge stuff is still there with an upper 90’s fastball that hits over 100, a potentially plus slider, and developing changeup, but the longer he doesn’t actually put it together, the more likely he ends up in the bullpen. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 8/4.13/1.37/147 in 145 IP
1021) Paul Wilson DET, LHP, 19.4 – Selected 76th overall, the 6’3”, 197 pound Wilson has a bit of a funky lefty delivery and fires the baseball from a 3 quarters arm slot. He’s definitely tough to pick up. He uses that delivery to throw a low to mid 90’s fastball that is a bat missing weapon and a plus slider. He also mixes in a curve and change. The delivery still looks on the raw side and he needs to improve his control/command, so plenty of refinement is needed all around. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.94/1.31/168 in 160 IP
1022) Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 19.7 – Selected 234th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft and signed for an over slot $1 million, the 6’4”, 215 pound Kent leads with a mid 90’s fastball that he pairs with two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. The changeup actually might have double plus potential with nasty diving and tailing action. He dominated in his pro debut with a 0.00 ERA and 27.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 8.2 IP at rookie and Single-A. The delivery isn’t particularly athletic, he doesn’t consistently maintain his velocity, and his secondaries need refinement, so plenty of improvement is needed all around. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.19/1.32/150 in 150 IP
1023) Landen Maroudis TOR, RHP, 19.4 – Selected 121st overall and signed for $1.5 million, Maroudis’ signature pitch is a plus changeup that is already nasty, to go along with a low to mid 90’s fastball and decent slider. He’s 6’3”, 195 pounds and his athleticism is evident in that he is also a good hitter. More refinement is needed all around, but there is a reason he got such a high signing bonus. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.27/160 in 160 IP
1024) Steven Echavarria OAK, RHP, 18.8 – Selected 72nd overall, Echavarria doesn’t have the pure electricity as some of the other high school starters ranked above him, but he has a really strong combination of skills. He’s 6’2”, 180 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and good control over all of his stuff. None of his secondaries standout, but he throws a slider, curve, and changeup that all have above average potential. It’s likely mid-rotation upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/4.14/1.29/150 in 160 IP
1025) Kameron Misner TBR, OF, 26.3 – Misner has the chance to be the next Luke Raley/Jose Siri-like late 20’s “breakout” on the Rays. He has a plus power speed combo with 21 homers and 21 steals in 130 games at Triple-A, but it comes with a horrible hit tool (35.8% K% and .226 BA). He’s a physical specimen at 6’4”, and he gets on base with a 17.5% BB%. He’s a sneaky upside play in deep leagues with some semblance of opportunity over the next few years. 2024 Projection: 28/6/23/.216/.307/.398/6
1026) Ismael Javier SDP, SS, 18.7 – Javier was a DSL breakout, slashing .280/.386/.505 with 9 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.1%/13.4% K%/BB% in 51 games. He’s not a big guy, and he was known for his hit/defense combo, but the power was clearly bigger than expected. He has a chance to be a true small guy breakout in 2024 when he comes stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/16/62/262/.327/.410/18
1027) Drake Baldwin ATL, C, 23.0 – Baldwin most certainly has the look of a catcher with two big tree trunks for legs, and he uses that strong base to hit the ball very hard, leading to 16 homers and a 135 wRC+ in 92 games at High-A. He then got the call to the upper minors in September and kept producing with a .811 OPS in 17 games. He’ll likely break in as a back-up catcher/solid bench bat and will have to earn it every step of the way from there. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 39/13/48/.254/.326/.431/0
1028) Daniel Susac OAK, C, 22.11 – The former 19th overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Susac hit well at High-A with a 128 wRC+ in 99 games, but a 54.9% GB% limited him to just 7 homers. The plate approach and hit tool are only solid at best (21.5%/9.5% K%/BB%), so he’s going to have to raise that launch considerably to be an impact offensive catcher. At 6’4”, 218 pounds, he certainly has the raw power in the tank to make that adjustment work if he can pull it off. He closed the year out at Double-A, and while he didn’t hit particularly well (71 wRC+ in 13 games), it was a small sample and he wasn’t too bad either with 1 homer and a .280 BA. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 52/16/61/.254/.319/.412/5
1029) Carter Jensen KCR, C, 20.9 – The 6’1”, 210 pound Jensen has a good looking lefty swing with a great eye at the dish (18.5% BB%) and the ability to lift the ball (36.3% GB%). The most impressive thing about him is probably his age to level production as he put up a 109 wRC+ in his age 19 season at High-A. The power isn’t huge right now with 11 homers in 116 games, but there is more in the tank. The biggest problem is of course the hit tool. He had a .211 BA with a 24.1% K%. He had a .226 BA at Single-A in 2022. The contact rates aren’t so bad that he’s a hopeless case, but it does have the potential to tank his profile when he faces more advanced pitching. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/18/63/.236/.318/.424/7
1030) Yeiner Fernandez LAD, C/2B, 21.7 – Fernandez has elite contact rates with an excellent plate approach, but he doesn’t have the raw power, game power, or base stealing ability to get too excited about him. He slashed .273/.360/.375 with 6 homers, 4 steals, and a 12.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 99 games at High-A. He then went to the AFL and put up a .939 OPS with 1 homer and a 5/8 K/BB in 11 games. He’s a small guy (5’9”) with high groundball rates (50.6% GB%), so the odds of a legitimate power breakout aren’t that high. He likely projects as a super utility bench player, but it wouldn’t be the first time a small, elite plate approach guy had a much better career than anyone expected. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/8/42/.273/.338/.398/7
1031) Dominic Keegan TBR, C, 23.8 – The Rays don’t sign big free agents and they don’t have an obvious catcher of the future. It leaves the door open for a guy like Keegan to break through in the next year or two. He was a 4th round pick in 2022 out of Vandy, so it’s not like he’s coming out of obscurity. He’s always had a good bat, and he proved it in the lower minors, slashing .287/.386/.467 with 13 homers and a 90/59 K/BB in 106 games. He then went to the Fall League and ripped that up too with a 1.031 OPS in 15 games. His defense needs work, but it’s been improving and he has a big arm. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 38/10/44/.242/.316/.421/1
1032) Christian Cerda ARI, C, 21.3 – Cerda has been one year older than optimal at every level from the DSL-Single-A, but he reached the age appropriate High-A in the 2nd half and proved his strong numbers weren’t a mirage. He hit 6 homers with a 20.8%/22.6% K%/BB% and 134 wRC+ in 40 games. He got acquired by Arizona in 2022 for David Peralta, so they obviously identified something they like in the kid. He’s playing in LIDOM now and he recently ripped his first bomb with a 1.333 OPS in 3 games. He needs to work on his defense, but his power/patience profile is very interesting. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 46/13/42/.241/.323/.429/1
1033) Johanfran Garcia BOS, C, 19.4 – Garcia was a relatively high priced international signing in 2022 ($850,000), and he played very well his first year in stateside rookie ball, slashing .302/.408/.497 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 42 games. He’s already pretty physically mature at a muscular and beefy 5’10”, and he unsurprisingly hits the ball relatively hard. He had a poor showing at Single-A to close out the season with a 60 wRC+ and 35.3% K% in 15 games, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on that as an 18 year old. He has the potential for an average to above average hit/power combo. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 65/20/73/.257/.324/.438/2
1034) Ramon Ramirez KCR, C, 18.10 – Ramirez was a bit old for the DSL, but he went above and beyond in obliterating the level, slashing .344/.440/.615 with 8 homers, 6 steals, and a 12%/14% K%/BB% in 41 games. He’s a thick and athletic 6’0”, 180 pounds and he hits the ball very hard. He also has good defensive upside behind the dish. Ramirez has legitimate potential for prospect helium if he keeps performing. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 63/18/68/.263/.336/.443/5
1035) Julio Zayas NYM, C, 18.1 – DSL catchers aren’t exactly my favorite targets, but Zayas’ hit/power combo is one of the best the league with 7 homers and a 12.9% K% in 49 games. He hits the ball hard and he gets it in the air with a 36.7% GB%. He obviously has a long way to go, but he’s a candidate to start popping when he gets stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 62/20/68/.257/.323/.434/1
1036) Eduardo Tait PHI, C, 17.7 – Tait was a 16 year old in the DSL and he was still one of the better hitters in the league, slashing .333/.400/.517 with 3 homers, 4 steals, and an 18.8%/7.3% K%/BB% in 44 games. He has a relatively simple and controlled lefty swing and he hits the ball hard. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 64/18/66/.255/.321/.429/3
1037) Michael Stefanic LAA, 2B/3B, 28.1 – Stefanic is the Angels new David Fletcher. He has a truly elite plate approach/contact rates and nothing else. He put up a 7.3%/13.2% K%/BB% in 99 games at Triple-A (139 wRC+) and then did the same in the majors with a 11.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 71 PA (109 wRC+). Unfortunately, he has only 1 barrel in 104 MLB batted balls with a 26 ft/sec sprint. He’s a utility infielder, but if he does work his way into playing time, he could be a positive for BA and OBP. 2024 Projection: 29/4/26/.265/.339/.378/4
1038) Jose Miranda MIN, 3B, 25.9 – I was the low man on Miranda last off-season, pouring some cold water on him as he got lots of hype, and he ended up having a disaster season with a 57 wRC+ in 152 MLB PA, and a 74 wRC+ in 181 AAA PA. His season ended in July with a shoulder injury that required a clean up surgery in September. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but an above average hit/power combo in a short side of a platoon role seems his best case scenario at the moment, and the worst case scenario is that he simply isn’t an MLB caliber player with very poor defensive value. 2024 Projection: 19/4/21/.247/.308/.416/1
1039) Andres Chaparro ARI, 1B/3B, 24.11 – Chaparro’s 90 wRC+ in 137 games at Triple-A isn’t great, but the 25 homers and 21.8%/10.8% K%/BB% shows his plus power, solid plate approach profile remains intact. He hits the ball hard (89.1 MPH EV) and he lifts it (34.4% GB%). He’s a poor defender and even with him signing with Arizona, he’s still going to struggle for playing time. 2024 Projection: 14/5/18/.237/.298/.420/0 Prime Projection: 33/10/37/.251/.320/.431/0
1040) Oswaldo Osorio LAD, SS/3B, 19.0 – Osorio was one of my favorite DSL breakouts last year, and while he had a good year in stateside rookie ball (114 wRC+), it wasn’t good enough to keep targeting him. The biggest issue is that he stole only 1 bag in 49 games, and he didn’t have a good success rate in the DSL last year either. If we can’t count on steals contributions, it puts a ton of pressure on his good, but not great bat (6 homers with a 26.9%/14.4% K%/BB%). ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/21/73/.245/.327/.424/7
1041) Franklin Arias BOS, SS, 18.4 – Arias was a DSL breakout, slashing .350/.440/.453 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 8.8%/11.9% K%/BB% in 37 games. He has a solid SS glove and he gets the bat on the ball. That is a very safe profile, and if he starts impacting the ball more as he gets older at 5’11”, 170 pounds, he can definitely become a very legit prospect. Probably not the highest upside though. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/17/65/.272/.338/.417/9
1042) Nikau Pouaka-Grego PHI, 2B/3B, 18.7 – Grego tore his ACL and missed all of 2023. He ranked 881st in last year’s Top 1,000, and his blurb remains the same assuming he returns to full health: “Pouaka-Grego was 17 years old playing in stateside rookie ball and he excelled, slashing .301/.424/.466 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 16/16 K/BB in 35 games. He has a smooth lefty uppercut swing that is made to hit flyballs (36.1% GB%), and he combines that with an advanced plate approach. He’s not a big raw power or speed guy, so the upside might not be huge.” ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.273/.344/.432/6
1043) Dameury Pena MIN, 2B, 18.7 – Pena doesn’t have much power with 0 homers in 39 games in the DSL, but he does everything else well, slashing .382/.453/.496 with 13 steals and a 6.5%/10.1% K%/BB%. He’s not particularly small at 5’10”, and he’s not an extreme groundball hitter, so if the power ticks up, he could get some real hype. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 78/14/59/.275/.343/.405/22
1042) TJayy Watson PHI, OF, 19.2 – Selected 130th overall, Watson is a 6’3”, 225 pound power hitting beast who is already putting up big exit velocities with a powerful and controlled righty swing. And he’s not just big raw power and nothing else. He also has a mature plate approach and average speed. He had a strong pro debut with a 211 wRC+ on the back a .714 BABIP and 17.6% BB%, but he had 0 homers and a 35.3% K% in 5 games. If it all comes together, he can be a middle of the order slugger, but there is plenty of risk. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/23/77/.244/.328/.441/7
1044) Antonio Anderson BOS, 3B, 18.9 – Selected 83rd in the 2023 MLB Draft, Anderson had a rough pro debut with a 41 wRC+ and 33.3% K% in 5 games in rookie ball, and a 26 wRC+ with a 32.1% K% in 7 games at Single-A. It’s only a small sample, and he’s on the young side for his class, but considering he was supposed to be a relatively advanced hitter, that isn’t a great sign. If advanced hitting was his only skill, I would be out, but he’s much more than that. He hits the ball hard at 6’3”, 205 pounds with a controlled lefty swing, and he’s a good athlete with average to above average run times. The poor debut means I’m not going out of my way for him, but if I’m looking for upside in the later rounds of a deeper league, I can see popping Anderson. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 62/19/69/.246/.324/.437/8
1045) Jesus Made MIL, SS, 16.11 – Stop me if you heard this one before, but the switch hitting Made is a projectable and toolsy 6’1”, 165 pounds with a swing geared towards launching the ball. He has a mature plate approach and he has the potential to be a very good defensive SS. I know these international prospect blurbs can get repetitive especially as we get deep into the class, but these are the prospects that can blow up if you want upside. Embrace the mystery. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 76/24/81/.258/.334/.449/12
1046) Francisco Vilorio NYY, OF, 17.5 – The 6’2” Vilorio sure looks good in the box with a big righty swing that is made for launch. He’s already hitting for power and it’s not hard to envision much more coming in the future. He also has speed and a good feel to hit. He looks the part of a damn exciting prospect, so if the production is there, he’ll blow up fast. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 76/24/81/.255/.336/.453/14
1047) Daiber De Los Santos MIN, SS, 17.6 – The 6’1”, 160 pound De Los Santos is an excellent all around athlete with the potential for a plus SS glove. He has good size, power potential, speed, and feel to hit. A lot of refinement is needed and he’s not a physical beast, but the ingredients are there to be a good one down the line. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 78/20/78/.260/.325/.430/15
1048) Jorge Quintana CLE, SS, 17.0 – Quintana is a projectable 6’2”, 170 pounds with a strong all around skillset. Based on his scouting report, he’s kinda the George Lombard of the international class with plus plate skills and a potentially above average power/speed combo. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 79/20/76/.265/.335/.430/14
1049) Ashley Andujar COL, SS, 16.8 – Andujar is one of the youngest players in the class and is expected to sign with Colorado. The Rockies obviously play in a great ballpark, but talking about what ballpark a 16 year old might hit in 6+ year from now is a bit silly as that is the least of our concerns. What is our concern is Colorado’s lack of developmental prowess and lack of commitment to their non elite prospects, so signing with them is probably more of a negative than anything. As for Andujar, he’s a projectable and toolsy 6’1”, 160 pounds with a great feel to hit and aggression on the bases. A low K% and lots of steals in the DSL will definitely put you on the deep dynasty league map, and Andujar has the potential to put up that kind of stat line in 2024. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 73/18/76/.267/.323/.422/21
1050) Roberto Arias CLE, OF, 17.6 – Arias has a vicious and controlled lefty swing that makes a ton of contact and can start to do real damage when he grows into his skinny 6’1” frame. He’s also a premium athlete with plus speed potential. If he grows into plus raw power, that swing and his athleticism will do the rest. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 79/21/77/.269/.328/.437/19
1051) Spencer Horwitz TOR, 1B/OF, 26.5 – Horwitz is a low upside proximity play. He has limited defensive value with a plus plate approach and a swing geared for line drives. He made his MLB debut in 2023 and wasn’t able to maintain the elite 14.9%/16.1% K%/BB% he had in Triple-A with a 27.3%/9.1% K%/BB% in 44 MLB PA. He also had a 87 MPH EV, 1.5 degree launch, and 25.1 ft/sec sprint. It’s a small sample and he still had a 106 wRC+, so I do think he can be a solid MLB hitter, but I don’t the see the upside, and it comes with playing time risk. 2024 Projection: 39/8/44/.262/.338/.408/3
1052) Tre’ Morgan TBR, 1B/OF, 21.8 – Selected 88th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Morgan isn’t your prototypical power hitting first baseman with only 9 homers in 69 games in the SEC, but all of his other skills/traits are good enough to crack this list. He’s young for his college class, his excellent plate approach transferred to pro ball with a 4.5%/18.2% K%/BB% in 11 games at Single-A, he has speed with 4 steals at the level, and he’s an excellent defensive 1B who can also play OF. The upside isn’t super high, but Tampa is a great organization for him to work his way into playing time a few years from now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 58/12/42/.262/.328/.414/10
1053) Zach Levenson STL, OF, 22.1 – Selected 158th overall, Levenson has done nothing but hit in his amateur career, never putting up an OPS under .938 at any of his 4 stops, and that continued right into pro ball, slashing .268/.331/.480 with 6 homers, 2 steals, and a 23%/8.6% K%/BB% in 34 games at Single-A. He hits the ball hard at 6’2”, 210 pounds and the plate approach is generally solid. Solid big league bat is probably his ceiling, but the Cardinals churn these types out all the time. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 61/17/66/.253/.324/.429/3
1054) Shalin Polanco PIT, OF, 20.2 – Polanco was a high priced international signing with the requisite sweet lefty swing and power/speed combo, but his production has been lacking since entering pro ball. He didn’t blow the doors off in 2023 either, but it was his best season with 12 homers, 17 steals, and a 104 wRC+ in 70 games at Single-A. The 28.7%/9.6% K%/BB%, shows he still has a long way to go, but he’s been improving every year, and the talent is certainly there. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 57/15/62/.243/.314/.425/7
1055) Julian Aguiar CIN, RHP, 22.10 – Aguiar throws an above average 5 pitch mix with all of his pitches moving in different directions. The 4-seamer and 2-seamer sit mid 90’s, and he has a trio of secondaries (slider, curve, change) which are all effective pitches. The 2-seamer is probably the pitch that stands out the most, which keeps his groundball rates high. It was too much for lower minors hitters with a 1.92 ERA in 70.1 IP, but the production slowed down at Double-A with a 4.28 ERA and 26.3%/5.6% K%/BB% in 54.2 IP. It’s likely a back end guy but there is mid rotation upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.31/135 in 150 IP
1056) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 25.1 – Hamel is a back end starter (with mid rotation upside) proximity arm. He pitched very well at Double-A with a 3.85 ERA and 30.4%/9.3% K%/BB% in 124 IP on the back of a 93 MPH fastball that gets whiffs. He rounds out the arsenal with a curve, slider, cutter and change that are all solid pitches. He’s already 25 years old, the stuff isn’t really that electric, and the control is average to below average, which is why I put the back end starter label on him despite the big rates in the upper minors. 2024 Projection: 1/4.52/1.39/36 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.29/1.33/135 in 145 IP
1057) Dax Fulton MIA, LHP, 22.6 – Fulton underwent surgery on his UCL (internal brace and primary repair procedures) in June, which will likely keep him out for most or all of 2024. When healthy, he makes for an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’7”, 225 pounds with a bit of a herky jerky lefty delivery. The fastball was ticking up this year with it more consistently getting into the mid 90’s, which he combined with a plus curve and average changeup. The profile is exciting enough to keep him on the fantasy radar, but it’s not so good to make him anything other than a fringe Top 500 guy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 8/4.12/1.33/145 in 145 IP
1058) Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 24.5 – Burrows underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2023 after just two outings which will keep him out until mid-season 2024. I liked him coming into 2023 with a plus fastball/curve combo that he had good control over, but he’s not quite in the class of prospect I like to take the Tommy John discount on. He’s someone you should keep an eye on to see if he returns to full health, but I’m not sure he’s a particularly great stash before that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 6/4.30/1.33/100 in 110 IP
1059) Paul Blackburn OAK, RHP, 30.4 – Blackburn put up a career best 22.4% K% from simply throwing his good slider more, but his walk rate rose with it with a career worst 9.3% BB%, and he ends up a back end starter no matter which route he takes to get there with a 4.43 ERA in 103.2 IP. 2024 Projection: 5/4.36/1.38/110 in 120 IP
1060) Wade Miley MIL, LHP, 37.4 – Miley put up a 3.14 ERA in 120.1 IP in 2023. He had a 3.16 ERA in 2022 and a 3.37 ERA in 2021. I still find it hard to buy into the excellent ERA’s though. Nothing else looks too exciting with a 16.1%/7.8% K%/BB% and a 90.4 MPH fastball. He’s also 37 years old. He’s nothing but a fungible back end guy to me. 2024 Projection: 8/4.07/1.29/90 in 130 IP
1061) Marco Gonzales PIT, LHP, 32.1 – Gonzales can lose his starting job at any moment, even with Pitt, and the upside is extremely low with a 15.8% K%. He almost didn’t crack this list with a 5.22 ERA in 50 IP in 2023 (a forearm injury ended his season in May), but he had 5 straight years before that with ERA’s hovering around 4.00. Serviceable is the ceiling. 2024 Projection: 8/4.32/1.36/105 in 145 IP
1062) Adrian Houser NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Houser seems to be the favorite for the Mets 5th starter job, which is a perfect fit for him, because he’s a #5 starter. He put up a 4.12 ERA with a 20%/7.1% K%/BB% in 111.1 IP. The sinker hit a career low 92.1 MPH in 2023, so he’s likely declining too. 2024 Projection: 6/4.29/1.38/101 in 120 IP
1063) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 24.1 – Graceffo started getting hype based on a plus mid to upper 90’s fastball, but that fastball was gone in 2023 with a 94 MPH fastball. He can still get it into the upper 90’s, but that extra zip that really put him over the top is currently gone. And without it, he doesn’t have the numbers to get excited about with a 4.92 ERA and 20.9%/11.6% K%/BB% in 86 IP at Triple-A. He’s a low upside proximity play with a glimmer of hope that the fastball ticks back up again. 2024 Projection: 2/4.67/1.43/44 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.34/1.36/120 in 140 IP
1064) Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 24.10 – I was calling to sell Elder when he got off to a hot first half with a 2.45 ERA and 80/30 K/BB in 102.2 IP, and he unsurprisingly fell off hard after that with a 5.75 ERA and 48/33 K/BB in his final 72 IP. I’m not even that proud of the call, it was super obvious. He keeps the ball on the ground with a 89.5 MPH sinker, and his slider is respectable with a 33.7% whiff%, but this is a back end starter profile. If his control can jump from good to great levels, maybe he can level up to a mid rotation starter, but the upside won’t be high even if he’s able to do that. It seems like he is going to start the year as rotation depth. 2024 Projection: 4/4.23/1.32/70 in 100 IP
1065) Owen White TEX, RHP, 24.8 – White is an overhyped, low upside proximity play. His stuff backed up in 2023 with the fastball sitting about 93 MPH. He battled a shoulder and hip injury throughout the year, but I’m not sure that helps his case. The results were terrible too with a 21.1%/10.1% K%/BB% at Double-A and a 13.5%/13.5% K%/BB% at Triple-A. He got obliterated in the majors with an 11.25 ERA in 4 IP. The hope is that the stuff ticks back up again in 2024 and he remains healthy. 2024 Projection: 1/4.65/1.44/34 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.32/1.37/120 in 140 IP
1066) Nathan Hickey BOS, C, 24.4 – Boston drafting Kyle Teel essentially ends Hickey’s chance of earning a large share of the catcher job, so now he’s kinda stuck in no man’s land as a platoon DH/back up catcher type. The bat is still worthy of him cracking this list though, slashing .258/.352/.474 with 15 homers, 3 steals, and a 27.2%/11.9% K%/BB% in 80 games at Double-A. He most likely ends up a bench bat, but I can see him working his way into a strong side of a platoon role of some sort down the line. 2024 Projection: 9/2/12/.226/.293/.401/1 Prime Projection: 41/16/49/.244/.320/.434/2
1067) Jorge Barrosa ARI, OF, 23.1 – Barrosa is very small at 5’5”, and is likely a 4th outfielder type with a plus hit/speed/defense profile. He slashed .274/.394/.456 with 12 homers, 15 steals, and a 16.3%/15.9% K%/BB% in 120 games. If Alek Thomas doesn’t get the job done, it’s possible they give Barrosa some run before Druw Jones takes over the job for good in a year or two. 2024 Projection: 27/2/16/.246/.305/.355/5 Prime Projection: 53/6/37/.264/.322/.390/12
1068) Dylan O’Rae MIL, 2B/OF, 20.1 – At 5’7” with every high groundball rates, O’Rae’s lack of power will likely relegate him to a utility role, but his speed, hit tool, and plate approach are all elite enough to take a shot on. He slashed .330/.439/.375 with 0 homers, 16 steals, and a 13.1%/15.9% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A. He’s a late round speed play. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 63/5/41/.268/.334/.376/22
1069) Vaun Brown SFG, OF, 25.9 – Brown is why it’s prudent to have some restraint when drooling over older prospects in the lower minors. He put up Fun House numbers in the lower minors, but it all came crumbling down at Double-A with a 37.5%/6.3% K%/BB% and 90 wRC+ in 50 games. The power/speed combo is still big though (8 homers and 15 steals at the level), so if he gets it figured out at say 27 years old, he can still be a late career breakout. But he’s merely in flier territory right now. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 34/7/29/.227/.293/.396/10
1070) Zach Cole HOU, OF, 23.8 – Cole has a big power/speed comb with 19 homers and 37 steals in 111 games in the lower minors, but it comes with a bottom of the scale hit tool. His 33.1% K% at High-A is enough to scare me off, but the upside is high if something clicks in his mid 20’s. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 28/6/25/.221/.308/.411/8
1071) Leonardo Pineda TBR, OF, 17.0 – Pineda is only 5’11”, but he’s a strong 5’11” with a powerful swing that can hit a baseball hard. He also has speed and a good feel to hit. His prospect upside is in the mold of a Corbin Carroll, Dillon Head, and Max Clark. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 84/17/59/.273/.338/.420/22
1072) Zyhir Hope LAD, OF, 19.2 – Selected 326th overall, Hope is the hit tool risk version of Dillon Head. He has a carrying tool in his double plus speed, and he had a strong pro debut, slashing .286/.491/.543 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.2%/18.6% K%/BB% in 11 games at stateside rookie. Like Head, he has good raw power but hits the ball on the ground way too much to fully tap into it. Unlike Head, he has hit tool risk, but the high walk rate mitigates that a bit. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 66/13/51/.252/.326/.416/21
1073) BJ Murray CHC, 3B, 24.2 – Murray raised his launch considerably in 2023 and it led to a moderate power breakout with 16 homers in 124 games at Double-A. It didn’t impact his mature plate approach at all either with a 23.8%/15.1% K%/BB%, and it all led to a 128 wRC+. He hits the ball fairly hard, but he’s not a beast or anything, and he’s not a great defensive 3B. He’s likely a bench bat long term. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 35/9/35/.246/.328/.418/4
1074) David McCabe ATL, 3B, 24.0 – McCabe is too old for the lower minors to get too excited, but he had a strong season at Single-A and High-A, slashing .276/.386/.450 with 17 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.6%/15.3% K%/BB% in 123 games. He’s a big guy at 6’3”, 230 pounds and he hits the ball hard, but the bat speed doesn’t really standout to me and he’s more of a “heavy” 230 than a built up one. Proving it against upper minors pitching would go a long way, but it’s still not a high upside profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 36/9/33/.246/.325/.417/2
1075) Cade Doughty TOR, 2B/3B, 23.0 – Doughty’s 29.7% K% is a bit on the high side for a college bat at High-A, but he still produced with 18 homers and a 116 wRC+ in 102 games. He can put a sting into the ball and he’s produced everywhere he’s played since 18 years old. A bench bat seems his most likely role at the moment, but I want to keep him on this list until he at least gets a shot to show what he can do in the upper minors. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 36/10/41/.241/.316/.418/3
1076) Mike Boeve MIL, 2B/3B, 21.11 – Selected 54th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Boeve is a plus hitter who put up an eye popping 9/32 K/BB and .401 BA in 47 games in the Summit League. The power/speed combo is average at best with only 4 homers and 6 steals, and the hit tool didn’t look nearly as impressive when he got to High-A with a .250 BA and 22.6%/11.7% K%/BB% in 19 games. He’s a relatively safe, low upside college bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 47/10/42/.262/.330/.416/7
1077) Braylin Morel TEX, OF, 18.3 – Morel is a powerful 6’2”, 180 pounds and he used that power to mash 7 homers with a 168 wRC+ in 47 DSL games, but the 24.5% K% shows there is legit hit tool risk. He also has plus speed, but he stole only 2 bags, so the base stealing skills need work. It’s a high risk, high upside profile. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 51/18/59/.234/.309/.432/7
1078) Gian Zapata ARI, OF, 18.7 – Zapata is a tooled up 6’4”, 195 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, and he showed it in the DSL with 9 homers and 5 steals in 44 games, but it comes with a scary 29.1% K%. High risk/high reward. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 53/18/59/.234/.313/.436/6
1079) Taylor Rogers SFG, Setup, 33.4 – Rogers is the top lefty in SF’s pen and would be in the running to close if anything happened to Doval. He’s been good since 2016 and that continued in 2023 with a 3.83 ERA and 29.6%/11.6% K%/BB% in 51.2 IP. The stuff was down a tick with a 93.6 MPH sinker, so it’s possible he could be entering a decline phase after a long run of success with a 6 year low 18.1% K-BB%. 2024 Projection: 4/3.70/1.23/73/3 saves in 60 IP
1080) Brock Stewart MIN, Setup, 32.6 – Stewart came out of nowhere in 2023 with his fastball exploding to career high levels by far with a 97.3 MPH 4-seamer that notched a 51.1% whiff%. The sweeper and cutter were also both plus to double plus bat missing weapons. It led to a 0.65 ERA with a 35.8%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27.2 IP. There is definitely injury risk as he missed a large chunk of the season with an elbow injury, and the track record is also super short, but he might have the highest non Duran division upside in Minnesota’s pen. 2024 Projection: 4/3.34/1.16/65/2 saves in 50 IP
1081) Gabe Speier SEA, Setup, 28.11 – Speier is the best lefty in Seattle’s pen after a breakout 2023 on the back of improved stuff. He put up a 3.79 ERA with 29.6%/5.1% K%/BB% in 54.2 IP. He displayed 3 plus pitches in his 94.4 MPH sinker (1 degree launch), slider (45.7% whiff%), and 95.1 MPH 4-seamer (35.7% whiff%). We’ll see if he can maintain the improved stuff and improved control, because he can be really good if he can. 2024 Projection: 3/3.50/1.13/67/2 saves in 60 IP
1082) Lucas Sims CIN, Setup, 29.11 – Pagan is most likely next man up, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Sims slips into that role at some point during the season. He finally stayed healthy in 2023 and pitched well with a 3.10 ERA and 27.9%/15.1% K%/BB% in 61 IP. His 33.1% whiff% is in the near elite range. The slider missed bats with a 41.5% whiff%, and the 94.2 MPH fastball plays as about an average to above average pitch. The walk rate is scary, but it’s been much better in the past. 2024 Projection: 4/3.68/1.24/73/3 saves in 58 IP
1083) Pierce Johnson ATL, Setup, 32.11 – Johnson didn’t have a great year in 2023 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 62.2 IP, but he came alive when he got traded out of Coors to Atlanta with a 0.76 ERA and 36%/5.6% K%/BB% in 23.2 IP. The stuff is big with a 95.9 MPH fastball and plus curve that notched a 39.9% whiff%. He’s put up over a 30% K% for 4 years in a row. 2024 Projection: 3/3.61/1.28/83 in 60 IP
1084) Colin Holderman PIT, Setup, 28.6 – Holderman broke out in 2023 with a 3.86 ERA and 24.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 56 IP, which really isn’t that great, but his big stuff gets him on this list. He has a 97.9 MPH sinker to go along with a double plus slider that notched a .177 xwOBA and 37.5% whiff%. The Chapman signing takes away his next man up status, but since Chapman is a lefty, maybe they go to Holderman anyway. And they clearly trust him with 27 holds in 2023. 2024 Projection: 4/3.62/1.26/65/2 saves in 62 IP
1085) Josh Winckowski BOS, Setup, 25.9 – Winckowski’s 2.88 ERA in 84.1 IP was mostly due to good luck with a 3.71 xERA and 22.3%/8.4% K%/BB%, but he has the stuff and youth to take another step forward in 2024. The sinker sat 96.3 MPH and the cutter and slider both missed bats with a 33.5% and 31.1% whiff%. Boston’s bullpen is old and kinda all over the place, so it wouldn’t be crazy to see Winckowski work his way into the closer of the future job if he can take that next step forward. 2024 Projection: 4/3.67/1.31/71/2 saves in 70 IP
1086) Jonathan Loaisiga NYY, Setup, 29.5 – Loaisiga is in the mix for next man up in New York, but he pitched only 17.2 IP in 2023 due to an elbow injury that required surgery to remove bone spurs, so nothing is certain. The big stuff was still there post surgery with a 97.8 MPH sinker, and he actually put up a strong 3.06 ERA (2.67 xERA), but the swing and miss was in the toilet with a 8.7% K%. He was obviously hurt, so I don’t want to dive too deep into the 2023 numbers, but the K rates have been low for a few years now. He cracks this list more due to his possible proximity to saves. 2024 Projection: 3/3.65/1.22/42/3 saves in 50 IP
1087) Matt Strahm PHI, Setup, 32.5 – Strahm is a jack of all trades who can start, go multiple innings out of the pen, or be used as a traditional one inning high leverage reliever. Regardless of the role, he’s good with a 3.29 ERA and 30.8%/6.0% K%/BB% in 87.2 IP. The fastball/slider combo is plus, and he rounds out the arsenal with a decent sinker and cutter. 2024 Projection: 6/3.50/1.14/82/2 saves in 70 IP
1088) Yimi Garcia TOR, Setup, 33.7 – Yimi is a rock solid setup man who is 2 spots away from the closer job. He put up a 4.09 ERA with a 28%/5.3% K%/BB% in 66 IP and has the big stuff to back it up with a double plus 96 MPH fastball that notched a 36.5% whiff%. He combines that with 4 other pitches that are effective in a sinker that keeps the ball on the ground and 3 off speed pitches that miss bats. 2024 Projection: 4/3.43/1.14/74/2 saves in 62 IP
1089) Trevor Megill MIL, Setup, 30.3 – Milwaukee has the magic touch when it comes to relievers, and they may have struck again with Megill. He broke out in 2023 with a 3.63 ERA and 35.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. The stuff was up at career high levels with a 99.1 MPH fastball, and the curve was better than it’s ever been with a 52.9% whiff%. The track record is super small, but relievers have these weird late career breakouts all the time, so I wouldn’t write it off. Payamps is likely next man up, and Uribe is the young stud, but it wouldn’t be crazy if Megill worked his way into next man up status at some point into 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/3.73/1.27/78/1 save in 60 IP
1090) Keynan Middleton STL, Setup, 30.7 – Middleton broke out in 2023 by throwing his 95.5 MPH fastball much less and his plus changeup much more. It resulted in a 3.38 ERA with a 30.2%/10.8% K%/BB% in 50.2 IP. The 36% whiff% overall is in elite territory. He battled a shoulder injury at the end of the year, and this was his best year by far, so there is plenty of risk. 2024 Projection: 3/3.60/1.25/66 in 55 IP
1091) Josh Sborz TEX, Setup, 30.3 – A 5.50 ERA in 2023 and a 6.45 ERA in 2022 has me a little hesitant to include Sborz, but his underlying numbers in 2023 were much better than the surface stats, and he was lights out in the playoffs with a 0.75 ERA in 12 IP. He had a 3.35 xERA with a 30.7%/7.9% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP in the regular season. He has the stuff to back it up with a 96.9 MPH fastball and 2 bat missing breaking balls. He’s gotten hit hard with 90+ MPH EV’s against his entire career, so I don’t think the high ERA was a complete fluke. 2024 Projection: 4/3.82/1.28/70/2 saves in 56 IP
1092) Sam Bachman LAA, RHP, 24.7 – The Angels system is brutally bad, which is evidence enough to stay away from their prospects in any kind of situation where you are torn on two players. Bachman immediately took 5 steps back the second the Angels got their hands on him. It’s almost like history is repeating itself with Joyce now. Like Joyce, Bachman looked good in his pro debut in his draft year before the Angels were able to mess with him (3.77 ERA with a 25.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 14.1 IP at High-A). He then imploded in on himself with injuries and terrible performance in 2022 and 2023. This year, he put up a 5.81 ERA with a 24.6%/16.9% K%/BB% in 26.1 IP at Double-A, and a 3.18 ERA with a 18.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 17 IP in the majors. His season ended in July with shoulder inflammation. The stuff is still huge with a 96.9 MPH fastball, but it performed as a below average pitch in the majors, and the slider was above average at best with a 34% whiff%. The Angels say they are still developing him as a starter, which I’m not sure is a good thing or a bad thing for his fantasy value at this point. Middle reliever is the most likely outcome, but the stuff, proximity and pedigree (9th overall pick) is enough to stay interesting in a barren system. 2024 Projection: 2/4.21/1.38/54 in 60 IP
1093) Clayton Beeter NYY, RHP, 25.5 – Beeter is likely a reliever with an above average fastball/slider combo and below average control. He put up a 3.62 ERA with a 165/75 K/BB in 131.2 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. If the fastball sat 95+ MPH, I can see being a bit more excited about him, but it only sits 93-94 MPH, which is why in a pen role it might be able to play up in the 95 range. 2024 Projection: 1/4.36/1.38/37 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 3/3.81/1.31/64 in 61 IP
1094) Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 23.10 – Schwellenbach was a two way player who pitched only one year as a closer in college, but Atlanta liked his stuff enough to draft him in the 2nd round in 2021. He needed Tommy John surgery after the draft and missed the entire 2022 season. He returned this year, and immediately showed why Atlanta liked him so much with a 2.49 ERA and 55/16 K/BB in 65 IP at Single-A and High-A. The fastball sits mid 90’s, the breaking ball is plus, the changeup is solid, and he has good control over all of his stuff. He missed some time this year with a shoulder injury, so the injury risk is very high considering he’s almost 24 years old and 65 IP is his career high. He also looked like a grown man out there at a thick 6’1” against lower minors hitters. There is legitimate bullpen risk, and if I had to guess, I would say that is where he ends up, but there is also upside because he has so little experience as a pitcher. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 4/3.65/1.18/67 in 65 IP
1095) Peyton Pallette CHW, RHP, 22.11 – Pallette made his pro debut in 2023 after returning from Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2022 (his junior year of college). He put up a 4.13 ERA with a 24.4%/12.8% K%/BB% in 72 IP at Single-A. He really never had a particularly great year in college either with a 4.02 ERA and 67/20 K/BB in 50 IP his sophomore year. The stuff is good with a plus mid 90’s fastball and a beautiful plus curve that he has on a string, but the fastball was a tick better in college and so was his control. Maybe everything looks much better his 2nd year back, but he’s not a target for me at the moment. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.33/140 in 150 IP
1096) Zach DeLoach CHW, OF, 25.8 – DeLoach gets an opportunity bump moving to Chicago. He’s been a solid hitter in the upper minors, slashing .286/.387/.481 with 23 homers, 8 steals, and a 27.8%/13.3% K%/BB% in 138 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball relatively hard with a 89.3 MPH EV and he can get it in the air with a 36.7% FB%. He’s on the old side for a prospect and there is hit tool risk, so it’s not really a profile to stash in most leagues. If he ends up with playing time, I can see taking a shot on him at that point. 2024 Projection: 28/7/25/.230/.308/.402/2 Prime Projection: 53/15/48/.242/.321/.418/5
1097) Landon Sims ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Sims returned from Tommy John surgery and he just didn’t look the same. The stuff and production were both way down with a low 90’s fastball and 5.47 ERA with a 28/12 K/BB in 24.2 IP. This is a reminder that taking the Tommy John surgery discount can definitely backfire. Tommy John surgery success rates are good, but it’s not 100% by any means. Betting on Sims is simply a bet that the elite fastball/slider combo will return the further away he gets from the surgery, but it sure seems much more likely that ends up in the pen either way at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 3/3.85/1.29/70 in 65 IP
1098) Ryan Birchard MIL, RHP, 20.9 – Selected 155th overall, Birchard is a big boy at a thick 6’0” with legit stuff. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with 2 potentially plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. He also throws a developing changeup. He dominated the MLB Draft League with a 1.00 ERA and 16/1 K/BB in 9 IP. A power reliever might be his most likely role, but he’s only 20 years old, and if he continues working on his body and refining his command, I wouldn’t rule out him remaining a starter. Milwaukee is also a great organization for him regardless of what role he ends up in. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.21/80 in 65 IP
1099) Steven Zobac KCR, RHP, 23.5 – Zobac has an above average fastball/control profile with mid 90’s heat and a 6.4% BB%. The slider looks about average-ish to me and and the changeup is still developing. He dominated Single-A with a 2.09 ERA and 29.9%/5.9% K%/BB% in 51.2 IP, but High-A slowed him down with a 5.31 ERA and 21.8%/7.1% K%/BB% in 39 IP. If the secondaries improve, he could start popping. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.13/1.25/130 in 150 IP
1100) Frank Mozzicato KC, LHP, 20.10 – Mozzicato got off to such a promising start to the season with a 2.14 ERA and 74/25 K/BB in 46.1 IP at Single-A, but it all fell apart after that. He put up a 7.12 ERA with a 25.3%/18.5% K%/BB% in his final 36.2 IP at High-A. He really hasn’t taken any steps forward since KC drafted him 7th overall with the control still well below average and the fastball still sitting in the low 90’s. He’s only 20, the curveball might already be plus, and he’s been a strikeout machine in his pro career, so a few extra ticks on the fastball and a big step forward with his control could catapult him in the future, but he has a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 4/3.74/1.28/75/10 saves in 65 IP
1101) Troy Johnston MIA, 1B, 26.11 – Johnston is a bit more hit over power than I would like for a 1B prospect, but his power ticked up this year with 26 homers and decent hard hit rates in 134 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He did it without sacrificing the hit tool with a 18.0%/10.3% K%/BB%, and while he’s not fast, he showed some athleticism with 24 steals in 26 attempts. He’s also a lefty who hit lefties well too with a .908 OPS. He’s likely a bench bat, but in very deep leagues, a low key proximity bat like this can sometimes provide sneaky value. 2024 Projection: 9/2/13/.242/.303/.394/1 Prime Projection: 34/8/38/.257/.323/.428/4
1102) CJ Kayfus CLE, 1B, 22.5 – Selected 93rd in the 2023 MLB Draft, Kayfus is another 1B prospect who doesn’t have that prototypical power you want to see, but his supporting skills are good enough to crack this list. He has a good feel to hit with a strong plate approach and some speed. He slashed .348/.464/.581 with 13 homers, 8 steals, and a 44/46 K/BB in 62 games in the ACC, and then he excelled in pro ball, slashing .271/.429/.542 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 15.6%/19.5% K%/BB% in 17 games at Single-A. After hitting only 1 homer in the wood bat Cape Cod league in 2022, it was nice to see him pop 4 in his pro debut. He still looks like there is some room to tack on muscle, so if he takes a step forward in raw power, he could be a very interesting prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 49/10/39/.254/.324/.422/8
1103) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 25.5 – Kavadas is a strong side of a platoon bat(.524 OPS vs. lefties), 3 true outcome slugger (91.2 MPH EV at AAA). He slashed .206/.377/.428 with 22 homers and a 35.8%/20.4% K%/BB% in 117 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. The swing and miss is a bit too much to even be too sure of him ever locking in a full platoon role. 2024 Projection: 11/4/14/.203/.300/.410/0 Prime Projection: 36/14/43/.218/.321/.435/0
1104) Jonathon Long CHI, 1B/3B, 22.2 – Selected 226th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Long makes for an interesting late round target in deeper leagues. He had a big Junior year in the Big West, slashing .312/.404/600 with 15 homers and a 44/29 K/BB in 55 games, and then he proved he’s not just a product of a weaker conference, slashing .260/.380/.533 with 6 homers and a 19.6%/12.0% K%/BB% in 23 games at Single-A. He has a very quick and powerful swing that looks relatively legit to me, and he hits the ball hard. Obviously don’t expect a league winner, but I think he’s a real prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 56/18/69/.245/.317/.441/1
1105) Trevor Werner KCR, 3B, 23.6 – Selected 199th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Werner is old for the class as a Senior, and his college numbers weren’t that great, but his off the charts pro debut should put him on your radar. He slashed .354/.459/.699 with 8 homers, 8 steals, and a 23.0%/15.6% K%/BB% in 31 games at Single-A. He’s 6’3”, 225 pounds with big power and he’s also a good athlete. The hit tool likely stalls him against upper minors pitching, but if you’re in a deep league and want upside from someone who isn’t 17 years, Werner isn’t a bad pick. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 35/10/43/.232/.310/.416/6
1106) Brian Kalmer CHC, 1B/3B, 23.7 – Selected 536th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Kalmer had an absolutely beastly pro debut, slashing .358/.423/.683 with 10 homers and a 20.3%/9.4% K%/BB% in 32 games at Single-A. He transferred out of the Pac12 after his sophomore season because he wasn’t getting any run, and then he went on to destroy Junior college in his junior year, and dominate for Gonzaga in his senior year. He’s 6’2”, 215 pounds with a pretty beastly righty swing that hits the ball hard. The hit tool and plate approach both still need work, and he was obviously far too old for the lower minors, but why not take a chance on a kid who was never given a shot, and then when he found his own path, has done nothing but rake. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 33/10/37/.236/.309/.421/1
1107) Angel Feliz WAS, 3B, 17.6 – Feliz is an athletic and projectable 6’3”, 190 pounds with plus power potential. He has solid barrel control and a good feel to hit, but he doesn’t exactly looked refined at the dish right now. He’s a ball of clay lotto ticket, but at this point in the draft, I prefer taking guys like this who could turn into truly coveted prospects, rather than low upside college bats who will likely never make a true impact. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 64/17/61/.252/.321/.436/11
1108) Luis Suisbel SEA, 1B/3B, 20.11 – Suisbel repeated the DSL in 2022, and then was a 20 year old in rookie ball to start 2023. 20 is even on the older side for Single-A, and while he hit well when got the call to that level with a 132 wRC+ and 6 homers in 31 games, it still came with a poor 29.9%/8.3% K%/BB%. He has big hit tool risk and the big production is mitigated by his advanced age, but there is definitely nice power potential in the bat, and there was big production in 2023. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 32/10/37/.238/.315/.426/2
1109) Ben Williamson SEA, 3B, 23.5 – Selected 57th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Williamson was a college senior from a non major conference who had a shaky pro debut. He was known for his excellent plate approach with a 22/40 K/BB in 55 games in college, but that immediately didn’t transfer to Single-A with a 10/2 K/BB in 10 games. He hits the ball fairly hard, but he didn’t put up big homer totals in college. I’m honestly not sure how he got picked so high or why so many people seem to particularly like him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 35/7/31/.245/.321/.410/4
1110) Maximo Acosta TEX, SS, 21.5 – Acosta’s power ticked up in 2023 with 11 homers in 110 games at High-A, and he combined that with a good feel to hit (21.1% K%) and some speed (26 steals). The power still isn’t all that big, the hit tool is solid, but it’s not great, and he’s not a true burner. His 92 wRC+ also wasn’t great. He’s likely a utility infielder long term, but he’s young enough to improve across the board, so I don’t want to write him off quite yet. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 51/9/42/.252/.318/.408/12
1111) Christian Knapczyk CLE, SS, 22.4 – Selected 161st overall in the 2023 Draft, Knapczyk is likely a utility infielder with a plus hit/speed combo, but the skills are there to make a fantasy impact if he does end up with a full time job. He slashed .331/.455/.408 with 1 homer, 19 steals, and a 19/21 K/BB in 45 games. He has a quick lefty swing that sprays hits all over the field, but the power is very, very minimal. For a guy like this, the hit tool needs to be in the elite range to really get excited about him, but it’s a very safe profile and he should move fast through the minors. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 34/2/21/.266/.324/.355/13
1112) Jalvin Arias PHI, OF, 17.6 – Arias is 6’3”, 210 pounds with easy plus power potential. The swing doesn’t necessarily look super smooth, but it’s quick and powerful. The plate approach and athleticism are both good as well. A strong showing in the DSL will have his stock quickly rising. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 72/23/76/.251/.323/.436/9
1113) Andres Arias TOR, OF, 17.6 – Arias is a physical specimen at 6’4”, 180 pounds who is known for his big power potential. There isn’t any video of him I can find, so I can’t see how sweet the swing is, but he projects as a corner bat, so you know the offensive potential is legit if he’s landing a big signing bonus. He’s a shot in the dark power upside bat, and I’ll continue to be on the lookout for more video. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 72/25/81/.245/.325/.450/7
1114) Dylan Ray ARI, RHP, 22.11 – Ray put together a strong season at High-A with a 3.81 ERA and 30.4%/7.9% K%/BB% in 99.1 IP, but he got crushed at Double-A to close out the season with a 8.36 ERA and 22.4%/11.9% K%/BB% in 14 IP, which hints at his likely backend starter projection. He’s a big guy at 6’3”, 230 pounds with a solid but not standout 4 pitch mix. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s and he throws a trio of effective secondaries (curve, slider, change). He has some ingredients for mid rotation upside, but a 4/5 starter or bullpen role is his most likely big league role. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 6/4.28/1.34/108 in 110 IP
1115) Logan Henderson MIL, RHP, 22.1 – Henderson obliterated at Single-A with a 2.75 ERA and 35.2%/8.6% K%/BB% in 78.2 IP, but it’s the type of profile that can often dominate less advanced hitters before struggling in the upper minors/majors. He throws low 90’s heat with a plus changeup and the occasional slider. The fastball will likely have to tick up or the control will have to become near elite to really start getting hype. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 8/4.32/1.31/120 in 140 IP Update: the fastball has reportedly ticked up this spring
1116) Justin Campbell CLE, RHP, 23.1 – Campbell underwent ulnar nerve decompression surgery on his elbow in June and missed all of 2023, which sounds scary, but the timetable was only a few months, so maybe it’s better than it sounds. He’s yet to make his pro debut after getting drafted in 2022, and I liked him coming out of the draft. The elbow injury makes it questionable if he ever returns to full health, but here was my 2023 Top 1,000 blurb for him, “Selected 37th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Campbell is 6’7”, 220 pounds with an easy and athletic delivery. Sometimes guys this tall can have an awkward delivery, but not Campbell. His dive bombing changeup in his best pitch, to go along with a low to mid 90’s fastball which gets plenty of whiffs, and 2 effective breaking balls in his curve and slider. His 3.82 ERA was a little inflated, but the 141/25 K/BB in 101.1 IP is much more indicative of his talent. Cleveland knows a thing or two about pitching development, and Campbell is legitimately exciting, especially if his fastball can tick up.” ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.32/130 in 140 IP
1117) JR Ritchie ATL, RHP, 20.9 – Ritchie looked like he was headed for a breakout before going down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in late May 2023. He had a 5.40 ERA (1.40 xFIP) with a 47.2%/5.7% K%/BB% in 13.1 IP at Single-A. He played exactly to his scouting report as an advanced pitcher with a low to mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider, and developing changeup. This isn’t really the type of pitcher I like to take the Tommy John discount on, so he’s not a target for me, but if he does come back 100%, he could be a good one. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.27/140 in 150 IP
1118) Jackson Baumeister BAL, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 63rd overall, Baumeister put up a 5.09 ERA in 69 IP in the ACC, and he also put up mediocre ERA’s his freshman year (5.60 ERA) and in the Cape (4.29 ERA). He was a draft eligible sophomore though, so this upcoming season was going to presumably be his breakout year, and he’s always missed a ton of bats. He put up a 30.9%/9.4% K%/BB% this year on the back of an above average, bat missing low to mid 90’s fastball. He combines that with a potentially above average curve and a developing slider and change. He needs to improve his command and his secondaries to take the next step. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.18/1.31/150 in 155 IP
1119) Justin Lange NYY, RHP, 22.7 – Lange is a big guy at 6’4”, 220 pounds and he has big stuff with a mid to upper 90’s. He also has a legit starters pitch mix with a cutter, slider, and changeup. But he needs his control to take a major step forward to harness that stuff. He put up a 4.75 ERA with a 33.2%/16% K%/BB% in 85.1 IP at mostly Single-A. He most likely ends up in the bullpen, but the upside is high if something clicks with his control. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 3/3.81/1.32/67 in 62 IP
1120) Cade Kuehler ATL, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 70th overall, Kuehler has good, but not great stuff, he has below average control, he’s from a non major conference, and he hasn’t thrown that many innings. He did have an excellent season in the Big South with a 2.71 ERA and 29.4%/8.4% K%/BB% in 73 IP. His 94 MPH fastball is his best pitch and it’s a bat missing weapon. He combines that with a decent slider and curve. I see him as a #4 type, but he gets the bump for being drafted by Atlanta. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 6/4.21/1.32/123 in 130 IP
1121) Isaiah Drake ATL, OF, 18.9 – Selected 162nd overall, Drake is very raw with a 64 wRC+ and a 37.7% K%/BB% in his 18 game pro debut, but his upside is worth taking a shot on this late. He has elite speed and plus raw power potential, and he is very young for his draft class, so some of that extreme rawness is mitigated. It’s a complete lotto ticket, but it’s one of those $1 billion jackpots if it hits. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 38/8/32/.231/.304/.416/19
1122) Matt Rudick NYM, OF, 25.9 – Rudick is small and old, so he’s probably a bench bat, but his numbers are too good to ignore. He slashed .271/.414/.449 with 9 homers, 12 steals, and a 15.8%/17.3% K%/BB% in 61 games at Double-A. The plate approach is very mature, he has some speed, and he has a lift and pull profile that will get the most out of his 5’6” frame. 2024 Projection: 17/3/12/.242/.326/.395/3 Prime Projection: 55/9/39/.251/.338/.412/8
1123) Randal Grichuk ARI, OF, 32.8 – Grichuk is a poor defensive player and average offensive player assuming no decline, and at 32 years old, you probably have to factor in decline. I don’t see why a team would sign him to a full time job, and after signing with Arizona, a team didn’t sign him to be a starter. He’s a short side of a platoon bat at best. 2024 Projection: 38/11/43/.249/.296/.431/2
1124) Grant Taylor CHW, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 51st overall, Taylor is a Tommy John surgery discount pick, but after getting burned by Landon Sims last year, I’m hesitant to go in on Taylor as he was far from established before going down with the injury. What Chicago is so excited about him is that he looked great in the Cape with a 2.14 ERA and 30/2 K/BB in 21 IP before the injury wiped out his junior year at LSU. He’s 6’3”, 230 with a mid 90’s fastball and a potentially plus breaker as his best pitches. He has high spin rates on all of his pitches. There is reliever risk and there is injury risk, but there is certainly upside too. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 4/3.68/1.24/78 in 65 IP
1125) Aaron Zavala TEX, OF, 23.9 – Zavala clearly wasn’t healthy after returning from surgery on a torn UCL (elbow). He had a 37.3% K%, 5 homers, and 79 wRC+ in 95 games at Double-A. In 2022, he had a 133 wRC+ and 20.9% K% in 30 games at Double-A, so I’m willing to give him a redo as he gets further away from that surgery. It’s not the highest upside profile to begin with with a moderate power/speed combo, so seeing the major hit tool issues in 2023 is scary regardless of the reason. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 31/7/28/.246/.321/.410/4
1126) Emaarion Boyd PHI, OF, 20.8 – Boyd is your classic plus contact speedster with a 14.9% K% and 54 steals in 91 games at Single-A. The groundball rates are very high and the EV’s are very low, so his power is at the very bottom of the scale with only 1 homer. He’s also not a big OBP guy with a 8.7% BB%, and the 99 wRC+ isn’t that impressive. His ceiling is a bottom of the order slap hitter. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 52/5/27/.259/.319/.386/28
1127) Chandler Simpson TBR, OF, 23.4 – Simpson is probably a speed bench player, but the speed is truly elite with 94 steals, and so are the contact rates with a 8.7% K% in 115 games at Single-A and High-A. He hit 0 homers, which will make it hard to be a full time player, and he still has to prove it in the upper minors. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 51/2/28/.266/.331/.346/29
1128) Yeremi Cabrera TEX, OF, 18.9 – Cabrera is repeating the DSL which made me want to keep him off this list, but he’s still only 18 years old, and the numbers are impressive, slashing .329/.445/.559 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 28/33 K/BB in 46 games. The tools are only average, so he’s not really a target for me. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/14/64/.262/.328/.415/10
1129) Derek Bernard COL, 2B, 18.8 – Bernard repeated the DSL, and even though he was still relatively age appropriate for the level, it makes me heavily discount his numbers. Even heavily discounted, his numbers are impressive though, slashing .311/.411/.563 with 7 homers, 17 steals, and a 17.8%/14.4% K%/BB% in 42 games. Along with repeating the level, he hits the ball on the ground well over 50% of the time and he’s a poor defensive player. There is above average offensive potential here, but he’s only a deep league flier for me. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 61/17/72/.242/.318/.422/17
1130) Daniel Palencia CHC, Setup, 24.2 – Palencia made his MLB debut and certainly showed “future closer” stuff with a 98.4 MPH fastball and plus slider that notched a 55.7% whiff%. It only resulted in a 4.45 ERA and 27.7%/11.8% K%/BB% in 28.1 IP, and he’s actually been pretty bad throughout his minor league career, but that stuff doesn’t lie. 2024 Projection: 3/3.87/1.26/68 in 58 IP
1131) Gabriel Terrero NYY, 2B, 18.7 – Terreo is only 5’6”, he doesn’t play SS, and the 21.6% K% is a little high, which makes me hesitant to put him on this list, but he crushed the DSL with 7 homers, 14 steals, and a 146 wRC+ in 37 games. He’s small, but he packs a punch. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/15/62/.251/.325/.407/19
1132) Cory Lewis MIN, RHP, 23.6 – Lewis has a back end starter profile with low 90’s heat and diverse pitch mix, but he throws a hard knuckleball which sets him apart, and the fastball misses bats despite the low velocity. He put up a 2.49 ERA with a 28.6%/8.0% K%/BB% in 101.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He likely needs to get to near elite control to beat his back end starter projection, but he’s a fun one. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.20/1.30/120 in 145 IP
1133) Wes Clarke MIL, 1B/C, 24.5 – Clarke was a standout in the AFL, slashing .297/.435/.568 with 5 homers and a 29.3%/18.5% K%/BB% in 21 games, and while that shouldn’t really change his value, it does highlight the excellent year he had at Double-A. He slashed .241/.392/.497 with 26 homers, 6 steals, and a 29.2%/17.7% K%/BB% in 118 games. He hits the ball very hard with a 35.2% Hard Hit% and he gets on base, but his K rates exploding to danger zone territory is not a great sign for his ability to be a full time MLB starter considering his weak defense. He’s trending towards a short side of a platoon bench power bat. 2024 Projection: 15/5/21/.218/.302/.409/0 Prime Projection: 36/12/43/.233/.323/.436/2
1134) Andrew Cossetti MIN, C/IB, 24.2 – Minnesota’s High-A manager did a Q&A on Twins Player Development Twitter recently, and was asked what player isn’t getting the recognition they deserve. His answer was Andrew Cossetti, writing, “Andrew Cossetti did a nice job for us after joining us from Ft. Myers. His ability to get on base plus drive the baseball made him a tough out, plus his catching is coming along.” He put up a 1.069 OPS in 35 games at Single-A before heading to High-A and putting up a .898 OPS with 9 homers in 60 games. He hits the ball very hard, and he hasn’t had any hit tool issues going back to college. He’s likely a backup catcher/bench bat, but he’s an interesting older bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 33/10/38/.248/.325/.433/1
1135) Creed Willems BAL, C, 20.10 – Willems absolutely obliterated Single-A with a 192 wRC+ in 30 games, but his numbers fell off hard at the more age appropriate High-A with a 60 wRC+. A lot of that was bad luck though (.237 BABIP), as his 9 homers and 27.7% K% in 75 games doesn’t look as horrific. He’s a thick boy at 6’0”, 225 pounds with plus raw power and the ability to lift the ball, but the hit tool and defense are both risks. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 42/12/47/.234/.311/.428/1
1136) Drue Hackenburg ATL, RHP, 22.0 – Maybe it’s because I’m both a Penn State fan and a Jets fan that I want to keep Drue, the brother of infamous QB bust Christian Hackenburg which everyone but the Jets saw coming from a mile away, off this list, but that would make him the only 2nd rounder to not make the list. Selected 59th overall and signed for $2 million, Hackenburg seems like an unlikely 2nd round pick even keeping the emotions out of play. He put up a mediocre 5.80 ERA with a 24.8%/6.5% K%/BB% in 85.1 IP in the ACC. He throws a mid 90’s fastball which induces grounders to go along with a bat missing slider and good control. He also put up a 3.30 ERA in 2022, so it’s not like he hasn’t had success in college. Based on draft slot, signing bonus, and the team that drafted him, he deserved to crack this list. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.26/1.32/145 in 155 IP
1137) Maddux Bruns LAD, LHP, 21.9 – Well below average control is holding Bruns back considerably, because the rest of his profile is really enticing. He’s a big lefty at 6’2” and throws mid 90’s heat with two plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. He also throws a decent changeup. He didn’t perform that well at High-A with a 4.74 ERA and 27.2%/15.8% K%/BB% in 76 IP, so he really needs to improve his command if he wants to have success against upper minors hitters. Being with the Dodgers gives him the bump to crack this list. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 4/3.72/1.28/70 in 65 IP
1138) Brooks Raley NYM, Setup, 35.9 – Raley is New York’s only lefty in the bullpen, so it seems unlikely he would ever get the full closer role even if injuries/ineffectiveness hit the Mets bullpen hard, but it’s definitely possible he could be part of a committee if Diaz gets hurt. And he’s been a damn good setup guy regardless with a 2.80 ERA, 25.8%/10.6% K%/BB%, 25 holds and 3 saves in 54.2 IP. He’s the rare junkballer reliever with an 89.9 MPH sinker and 4 pitch mix led by an at least plus sweeper and changeup. The 10.6% BB% was by far the worst mark of his career (6.8% in 2022), so combined with the low velocity and advanced age, there is certainly decline potential here. 2024 Projection: 2/3.35/1.20/60/3 saves in 55 IP
1139) Caleb Thielbar MIN, Setup, 37.2 – Thielbar is the best lefty in Minnesota’s bullpen with a 3.23 ERA and 30%/5% K%/BB% in 30.2 IP. He’s been really really good every year since 2020. He’s getting up there in age, and the stuff isn’t huge with a 93.1 MPH fastball, but that velocity is actually a career high, so it doesn’t seem like he’s about to fall off. 2024 Projection: 4/3.38/1.13/69/2 saves in 57 IP
1140) Brandon Belt FRA, 1B, 35.11 – Belt jacked 19 homers with a .858 OPS in 103 games in a strong side of a platoon role in 2023, so he should be able to land a platoon job in 2024, but he hasn’t found one yet, which is concering. The underlying numbers say he was on the lucky side with a .369 wOBA vs. .336 xwOBA, his K% exploded to 34.9%, and he’ll be 36 years old, so there is no guarantee he finds one. 2024 Projection: 39/13/36/.234/.341/.442/1
1141) Joey Votto TOR, 1B, 40.7 – Votto seems set on having a retirement tour in 2024, but we’ll see if he can land a job. He’s 40 years old and he’s put up a slightly below average wRC+’s in the last 2 seasons. He still hits the ball hard with a 11% Barrel%, and he has a good plate approach (25.6%/11.2% K%/BB%), so I can see a team taking a shot on him, but a team hasn’t pulled the trigger yet. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.235/.332/.431/0 Update: He landed in Toronto but it’s a part time role at best, and this will be his final season
1142) Darick Hall PHI, 1B, 28.8 – Hall wasn’t able to repeat his solid 2022 season (121 wRC+ in 142 PA) in 2023 with a 14 wRC+ in 56 PA, but to be fair, he basically wasn’t given even the slightest bit of leash to find a rhythm. That is the plight of the poor defensive slugger. He still crushed the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he crushed Triple-A with a 19.5%/12.6% K%/BB% and 133 wRC+ in 74 games. He’ll need a few injuries to get another shot, but if he does, he should rip dingers. 2024 Projection: 12/4/15/.227/.305/.437/0
1143) Alex Isola MIN, C/1B, 25.8 – Isola came in at #1,004 on last year’s Top “1,000,” and he backed that up with another strong year in 2023 with 20 homers, a 122 wRC+ and a 21.5%/10.8% K%/BB% in 110 games at Double-A. The plate approach is solid, he lifts it, he pulls it, and he can hit it hard. He was old for the level and he’s not a good defensive player, so a bench bat is his mostly role. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 32/10/36/.239/.320/.427/2
1144) Aneudis Mordan BAL, C/1B, 19.10 – Mordan struggled in the DSL in both 2021 and 2022, which is why he was a year older than optimal for stateside rookie ball in 2023, but he dominated the level, slashing .274/.390/.504 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 20.6%/13.5% K%/BB% in 38 games. He then got called up to Single-A for a 3 game cup of coffee and knocked out 1 homer with a 211 wRC+. He’s 6’1”, 175 pounds with a quick, powerful and fairly athletic righty swing. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 32/9/39/.238/.308/.424/3
1145) Daniel Pena MIN, C/1B, 19.1 – Pena hit well in the DSL in 2022 with a 121 wRC+, and then he was even more impressive stateside, slashing .278/.376/.474 with 5 homers and a 12%/12.8% K%/BB% in 34 games. He also just graduated high school in September, so congrats to him! He certainly looks the part of a catcher with a big trunk and developing power, and his contact rates have been bordering on elite. He needs to work on his defense and obviously there is a long way to go, but he’s one to watch in 2024. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 48/14/53/.261/.332/.435/1
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES ALL SEASON
-2024 FYPD Target & Strategy Guide
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 55 PROSPECTS RANKINGS FOR 2024 ONLY
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)