The MLB regular season may be over, but that means Dynasty Leagues are just starting to ramp back up. Leading up to Saturday’s special edition of the Razzball Prospect Podcast: First-Year Player Mock Draft, I ranked the top draft picks and international free agents who signed with pro teams this season (make sure to also check out Ralph Lifshitz’ Top 30 over at Razzball). Here are the 2016/17 Complete Top 40 Dynasty League First-Year Player Draft Rankings:
*All projections are now juiced, like the balls
1) Nick Senzel CIN, 3B – I ranked Senzel 5th in my Top 30 MLB Draft Rankings, but his impressive pro debut (.305/.398/.514), combined with Kyle Lewis’ knee injury, Corey Ray’s struggles in High-A, and Will Craig’s mediocre power output, has undoubtedly vaulted him to the top spot. Prime Projection: 90/20/90/.286/.354/.469/14
2) Zack Collins CHW, C – The 10th overall pick in the draft, Collins responded to his aggressive High-A assignment, slashing .258/.418/.467 with 6 homers and a 39/33 K/BB in 36 games. Chicago is also the type of organization to stick with him behind the plate, despite his questionable catcher defense. Prime Projection: 78/26/87/.264/.364/.485/2
3) Kyle Lewis SEA, OF – Would have ranked #1 overall if not for the devastating knee injury, but I’ll bet on modern medicine and not drop him too far. He has been updating his rehab progress on Twitter. Prime Projection: 83/24/87/.278/.350/.491/8
4) Corey Ray MIL, OF – Unlike Collins, Ray struggled at High-A, slashing .247/.307/.385. He still flashed his enticing power/speed combo, but the struggles just exacerbate the questions that surrounded his hit tool coming into the draft. Prime Projection: 86/16/71/.261/.328/.441/22
5) Will Craig PIT, 1B/3B – The power didn’t show up, with only 2 homers 63 games at Low-A, but his .412 OBP and 37/41 K/BB proves he is one of the most advanced hitters in the draft. Prime Projection: 80/22/90/.284/.359/.480/3
6) Kevin Maitan ATL, SS – Pure projection and scouting reports. Highest upside in the rankings, but he is 16 years old … seriously, he was born in the year 2000. Prime Projection: 90/27/100/.285/.345/.510/6
7) A.J. Puk OAK, LHP – More projection than you would like for a college starter, but he is a big, hard throwing lefty who put up a pitching line of 3.03/1.07/40 in 32.2 IP at Low-A. Prime Projection: 3.51/1.26/195 in 185 IP
8) Mickey Moniak PHI, OF – Not the most exciting fantasy prospect, but has a plus hit tool, speed, and pumped up trade value being the #1 overall pick in the draft. Prime Projection: 89/12/63/.290/.357/.420/19
9) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP – 2.04/1.13/36 in 39.2 IP in rookie ball debut. Has an advanced 3 pitch mix for his age, and will be in a great pitching situation in Atlanta and the NL East. Prime Projection: 3.39/1.16/184 in 190 IP
10) Jason Groome BOS, LHP – 6’6’’, 220-pound lefty with a devastating curveball. Drafted 12th overall but had the talent to be the top overall pick in the draft. Unlike Anderson, will be facing adverse pitching conditions in Fenway and the AL East. Prime Projection: 3.44/1.20/197 in 195 IP
11) Matt Thaiss LAA, C/1B – Safe, fast moving college bat, but don’t expect him to light the world on fire. (Side note: Ralph and I have been butchering his name on the podcast for weeks now. It is pronounced “Thighz.” Check out this Youtube video for the correct pronunciation of his name, and also to see the extremely wide batting stance he employs.) Prime Projection: 78/20/84/.278/.344/.453/4
12) Cal Quantrill SD, RHP – Reports have been positive in the early going coming back from Tommy John surgery. Still some unknowns after basically not pitching since his freshman year of college, but has the upside to be the top pitcher on this list. Prime Projection: 3.50/1.22/180 in 180 IP
13) Heath Quinn SFG, OF – One of my favorite sleepers coming into the MLB Draft (ranked 14th overall), and he remains so after dominating in Low-A to kick off his professional career (.344/.434/.564). Getting drafted into AT&T Park is not the best situation, but as long as the balls don’t suddenly unjuice faster than Barry Bonds in retirement, he should be aight. Prime Projection: 79/23/87/.263/.339/.471/6
14) Bobby Dalbec BOS, 3B – Had the potential to be a first-round pick coming into the season, but a disastrous junior year turned him into a draft day sleeper. Boston scooped him in the 4th round, and after utterly destroying Low-A in 34 games (.386/.427/.674), it has to catapult him up the fantasy baseball rankings. Expect lots of power and strikeouts. Prime Projection: 76/23/85/.250/.322/.463/6
15) Bryan Reynolds SFG, OF – There seems to be about 4-5 MLB teams that are so far and away superior at the draft process that it makes the rest of the league look like they are stuck in the stone age. San Francisco is one of those teams, and they managed to snag one of the best college players in the country in the 2nd round. Expect Reynolds to do a little bit of everything, but not standout in any one category. Prime Projection: 83/18/77/.265/.340/.449/13
16) Taylor Trammell CIN, OF – Another one of my favorite prospects coming into the draft (13th overall), the raw Trammell didn’t look all that raw in his pro debut, slashing .303/.374/.421 with 2 homers and 24 steals in 61 games. An All-American running back in high school, he has speed and athleticism up the wazoo, to go along with excellent bat speed and the potential to hit for both average and power. Prime Projection: 88/14/74/.273/.340/.434/26
17) Eric Lauer SD, LHP – 0.69/0.74/125 in 104 IP in the MAC this year, a middling D1 conference, and looked strong in his pro debut as well, putting up a line of 2.03/1.07/37 in 31 IP. He remains possibly the safest starter on this list. Prime Projection: 3.47/1.23/175 in 190 IP
18) Dakota Hudson STL, RHP – Big, strong righty with electric stuff. Control and command still needs work, but if any organization is going to get the best out of him, it is St. Louis. Prime Projection: 3.59/1.27/186 in 190 IP
19) Adrian Morejon SD, LHP – The top international pitcher on the list, and can easily end up the best pitcher on the list too. Doesn’t have the huge fastball (low 90’s) or huge size (6’1’’), but has tremendous polish for his age. Only reason he is this far down is because he is a year younger than even the high schoolers taken in the draft, and there are just more unknowns here in general. Prime Projection: 3.43/1.19/190 in 188 IP
20) Peter Alonso NYM, 1B – Was one of the best hitters in one of the best conferences in college baseball this season, slashing .374/.469/.659 with 14 homers and a 31/31 K/BB in 58 games in the SEC. He didn’t miss a beat once reaching pro ball, either, slashing .321/.388/.587 with 5 homers and a 22/11 K/BB in 30 games at Low-A. I might actually be too low on him here, but he is a 1B only and Citi Field is not exactly a power hitter’s haven. Prime Projection: 75/21/84/.271/.333/.465/2
21) Jorge Ona SD, OF – 19-year-old Cuban outfielder who signed for $7 million with San Diego. He is 6’2’’, 200 pounds with plus bat speed and raw power. He also dominated in the 2014 U18 Pam American Championship. There is risk due to the fact he just hasn’t played that much in the past year, but the upside is massive for fantasy. Prime Projection: 83/25/92/.260/.330/.500/5
22) Blake Rutherford NYY, OF – The 19-year-old Rutherford was ripping up Rookie ball (albeit with an over 20% K rate) before a hamstring injury ended his season. He doesn’t currently possess huge power or speed, but he can do a little bit of everything, and there is potential for more power down the line. Prime Projection: 80/18/80/.276/.332/.451/11
23) Alex Kirilloff MIN, OF – Known for his raw power coming into the draft, Kirilloff didn’t disappoint, knocking out 7 homers with solid contact numbers (32/11 K/BB) in 55 games at Rookie ball. He doesn’t have the quickest swing and he still needs to refine his plate approach, but there is a lot to like. Prime Projection: 77/22/87/.270/.329/.462/7
24) Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP – The 7th overall pick in the draft, Garrett throws an advanced curveball to go along with a low 90’s heater and developing changeup. He got drafted into a great situation for young pitchers in Miami, and is actually relatively safe as far as high school pitchers go. Prime Projection: 3.40/1.17/180 in 190 IP
25) Matt Manning DET, RHP – Basically the complete opposite of Garrett. Manning throws a fastball that can approach 100 MPH, but has an inconsistent curve and a changeup in the very early stages of development. His 46/7 K/BB in 29.1 IP in Rookie ball shows his limitless upside, but he is still very raw. Prime Projection: 3.72/1.29/198 in 187 IP
26) Justin Dunn NYM, RHP – Dunn is a recently converted reliever who throws an electric fastball/slider combo. Limited experience as a starter and slight build (6’1’’, 170 pounds) prevents me from ranking him higher, but the Mets have done an excellent job with developing starters in recent years (especially if you ignore the whole injury thing). Prime Projection: 3.61/1.24/173 in 180 IP
27) Anfernee Grier ARI, OF – I ranked Grier 10th in my pre-draft rankings, but his lackluster pro debut (.236/.277/.337) has him dropping. I love the power/speed combo, and am far from jumping off the bandwagon, but other guys have just passed him at this point. I would still target Grier in drafts, and you should be able to get him at great value now. Prime Projection: 79/16/72/.260/.316/.432/18
28) Chris Okey CIN, C – Okey was another one of my favorite pre-draft sleepers (ranked 19th overall), and he had a solid, if unspectacular pro debut, slashing .243/.323/.432 with 6 homers and a 49/14 K/BB in 42 games at Single-A. He also gets a bump for being a sure bet to stick at catcher. Prime Projection: 72/20/78/.258/.319/.447/4
29) Lucas Erceg MIL, 3B – Was a bit of a mystery coming into the draft because after a strong sophomore season in the PAC-12, he was forced to transfer to the less competitive Menlo College for academic reasons. But a strong pro debut, where he slashed .281/.328/.497 with 7 homers in 42 games at Single-A, has allayed some of those concerns. Erceg is your classic power hitting corner infielder. Prime Projection: 72/20/83/.262/.309/.449/7
30) William Benson CLE, OF – His Rookie ball numbers say it all, where he slashed .209/.321/.424, with 6 homers, 10 steals, and a 66/22 K/BB in 44 games. High risk, high reward. Prime Projection: 81/27/90/.241/.323/.473/10
31) Luis Almanzar SD, SS – The 16-year-old Almanzar signed with San Diego for $4 million. He is your classic toolsy SS who always makes bank during the international signing period, and they probably deserve to get paid even more. All projection and a long way off, but his upside can rival anybody’s. Prime Projection: 87/20/87/.285/.345/.480/10
32) Lazaro Armenteros OAK, OF – The 17-year-old Armenteros signed with Oakland for $3 million. He has dominated in international competitions and has oodles of raw talent. Prime Projection: 80/23/90/.270/.330/.480/18
33) Delvin Perez STL, SS – Almost a sure bet to stick at SS (but not sure how much a bump we should be giving SS in fantasy anymore) and a great real life prospect, but he is still very raw with the bat. He has plus speed and the talent to figure it out at the plate, so the potential to be an impact fantasy hitter is still there. Prime Projection: 84/10/66/.269/.309/.379/24
34) Jordan Sheffield LAD, RHP – Electric stuff with a mid-90’s fastball, but there is size, injury, and bullpen risk here. Prime Projection: 3.68/1.26/170 in 178 IP
35) Joey Wentz ATL, LHP – An uber-talented lefty who throws a low 90’s fastball with an already solid curveball and changeup. Has an athletic, repeatable delivery, and his potential is probably about equal to any pitcher on this list. Prime Projection: 3.56/1.18/191 in 186 IP
36) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP – 6’7’’, 240-pound beast who has workhorse starter written all over him. Not much projection left, but he already throws a mid-90’s heater and power curveball. Prime Projection: 3.55/1.24/183 in 200 IP
37) Josh Lowe TB, 3B/OF – Showed the power is for real, blasting 5 homers in 54 Rookie ball games, but his .249 AVG and 59 K’s shows there is plenty of improvement left to go. Prime Projection: 83/23/87/.269/.345/.469/9
38) Victor Garcia STL, OF – Might have the most raw power and bat speed of anybody on this entire list, but still very raw. I wrote about him way back in my Week 12 Fantasy Prospect Rundown as one of my favorite international signing period sleepers. Prime Projection: 77/29/93/.250/.315/.490/2
39) Nolan Jones CLE, SS/3B – Mediocre Rookie ball debut, slashing .257/.388/.339 with 0 homers and a 49/23 K/BB in 32 games, but the potential remains the same. Prime Projection: 82/21/85/.267/.348/.460/8
40) Ronnie Dawson HOU, OF– A great power/speed draft sleeper who displayed those same skills upon reaching pro ball (7 homers and 12 steals in 70 games at Low-A), but didn’t do anything to answer the questions about his hit tool (.225 AVG). Prime Projection: 78/15/73/.249/.322/.425/16
*Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Unsigned, SS/OF – Unranked because he hasn’t signed with a Major League team yet. He is a toolsy, but still raw 22-year-old who would probably slot in around the 30-ish range. Prime Projection: 82/18/77/.275/.335/.440/13
You can check out my Top 30 MLB Draft Rankings for more in depth information and scouting reports on most of these players.
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)