Welcome to the 3rd Annual Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings. We continue today with the second of three posts in the Sneak Peek series, which will lead up to the full release of the Top 1,000 in early February. 16-team, deep roster, 5×5 category league is what I had in my mind during the process. Here is A Top 180 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings:
Click here for the 2020 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Click here for the 2019 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)
Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves
*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.
1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – I’m a glutton for homers and steals (and Chinese food), and Acuna ranks ahead of Soto in both departments. There is risk Acuna eventually turns into a 3 true outcome slugger as he whiffed at a career high 29.9% rate, pulled the ball a career high 43% of the time, launched the ball a career high 18.6 degrees, and swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone, which is why Juan Soto is the no doubt #1 overall pick in almost anything other than standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 124/42/98/.271/.384/.570/30
2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 22.5 – Career low 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 4.3 degree launch angle, but it didn’t stop Soto from nabbing 6 bags and cranking 13 homers in 47 games. Only thing that could stop him was a positive Covid test that delayed the start of his season until August 5th, and even that he quickly beat with 3 rapid result antigen tests and claims it was a false positive. 2021 Projection: 112/36/109/.309/.431/.596/11
3) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – New exit velocity King with a whopping 95.9 MPH average, knocking Aaron Judge off the throne after a 4 year run, but major improvements in K% (down 5.9% to 23.7%) is the main reason Tatis is in the conversation for the top overall pick. 2021 Projection: 108/36/101/.279/.367/.563/25
4) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 29.8 – Stole a single base on two attempts in 53 games. Still plenty fast but did slow down slightly with a career low 4.33 home plate to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 111/44/105/.288/.417/.603/10
5) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019. It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22
6) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 27.9 – Maintained 2019’s exit velocity gains, except this year it showed up in his home run total with 12 dingers in 59 games. The added power hasn’t impacted his speed at all with the 5th fastest sprint speed in the game. On top of all that, he notched a career best 13.9% K%. He’s peaking all over our faces. 2021 Projection: 105/26/88/.297/.362/.506/34
7) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. Update: Underwent surgery to repair his dislocated right shoulder and is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. I originally had him ranked 5th but the separation is so razer thin at the top, the injury is enough to knock him down 2 spots.) 2021 Projection: 100/39/101/.273/.368/.570/14
8) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 28.6 – Increased launch angle every single year of his 6 year career which led to Ramirez crushing 17 homers in 58 games with a 23.2 degree launch angle. The power gains wouldn’t have been possible without the 2.3 MPH jump in FB/LD exit velocity, now sitting at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 2021 Projection: 105/35/103/.276/.370/.557/23
9) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Strikeout rate spiked to a career high 30.8%, partly because he became a more patient hitter (career high 18.6% BB%), but also because he simply swung and missed at a career worst rate (33.6% Whiff%). Whiff% was elevated in 2019 as well (28.2% after sitting around 23% the rest of his career), so this looks to be a trend. 2021 Projection: 107/33/99/.282/.383/.546/16
10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 28.4 – Free agent after the 2021 season, meaning Story’s value could take a big hit if he doesn’t re-sign with Colorado. Of course, maybe he can DJ LeMahieu it. 2021 Projection: 107/35/92/.281/.350/.541/25
11) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 28.6 – Career bests in K%, BB%, exit velocity, and launch angle, all while stealing 8 bags in 58 games. Unlucky .268 BA (.307 xBA) kept Harper’s overall value from absolutely exploding. 2021 Projection: 106/38/104/.270/.397/.535/16
12) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 27.4 – Underwhelming season, and while there is nothing really setting off alarm bells in the underlying numbers, he did notch a career worst 20.4% whiff% along with a career worst 4.42 runtime to 1st. Don’t go panic selling, but it might be enough to knock Lindor out of that very elite tier. 2021 Projection: 98/30/88/.272/.341/.497/17
13) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Turned his fastball into a dominant pitch, upping the velocity 1 MPH to 94.1 MPH and spin rate 100 revolutions to 2354 revolutions per minute. It led to a 12% increase in whiff rate on the pitch. 2020 erased any doubt that Bieber is a true ace. 2021 Projection: 16/3.03/1.06/259 in 202 IP
14) Wander Franco TB, SS, 20.1 – I’m no prospect hoarder. I don’t do never ending rebuilds. I took over a perennial doormat in an 18 team league I joined last off-season and dealt off Nick Madrigal, Ian Anderson, Luis Patino, Casey Mize, DL Hall, Luis Garcia, the draft pick that turned into Jasson Dominguez, and multiple other draft picks in what led to a 2nd place finish and 2 more years of a championship compete window. “You play to win the game.” I say all this because Wander Franco is the exception to that rule. He is the type of generational prospect you stay patient with. Franco’s career 7% K% makes Vlad Jr look like a strikeout machine with a 12% mark over that same time period playing at the same levels. He’s next level special, and the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects. 2021 Projection: May-74/18/71/.276/.337/.435/8 Prime Projection: 111/32/109/.311/.394/.564/14
15) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 23.1 – Wasn’t the same after returning from a grade 1 sprain of the LCL in his right knee, slashing .361/.391/.672 in 14 games before the injury and .242/.266/.355 in 15 games after the injury. Even with the injury, he made incremental improvements in Whiff% (down 2.9% to 21.6%), FB/LD exit velocity (up 1.8 MPH to 94.7), and launch angle (up 1.6 degress to 12). 2021 Projection: 95/25/86/.285/.338/.483/17
16) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 32.9 – Increased velocity for the 4th year in a row to a now incredible 99 MPH. It resulted in a career high 41% whiff% (up from 31.5% in 2019). deGrom inexplicably keeps getting better. 2021 Projection: 14/2.81/0.98/267 in 199 IP
17) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 28.9 – Complete bounce back from a down 2019. K% dropped back down to 14.6%, barrel% jumped back up to 11%, and even stolen bases ticked back up with 6 steals in 60 games . 2021 Projection: 93/34/102/.284/.360/.538/9
18) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 30.7 – Homers were up (career high 1.73 HR/9) and got hit harder (exit velocity up 2.8 MPH to 90.4), but considering the small sample and strong overall numbers (2.84 ERA), I wouldn’t read too much into it. 2021 Projection: 16/3.18/1.08/265 in 198 IP
19) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 27.0 – It would be easy to point to the lack of cheating as the reason for Bregman’s down year, but the underlying numbers don’t really back that up. The biggest culprits seems to be luck (.254 BABIP) and his weak FB/LD exit velocity finally catching to him with only 6 homers in 42 games on the back of a meager 90.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 101/29/96/.281/.395/.519/6
20) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 28.6 – Perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths in 56 games is nice to see after he stole only 4 in 155 games last year. If he can maintain anything close to that pace, Bogaerts has the upside to be a top 5 fantasy player. 2021 Projection: 92/25/87/.289/.360/.505/10
21) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 23.4 – 20.2% K% in his first extended MLB action is extremely encouraging considering the strong underlying Statcast numbers (91.1 MPH exit velocity with a 14.9 degree launch) and baserunning ability (8 steals in 58 games). Tucker is a near elite dynasty asset. 2021 Projection: 87/28/91/.270/.335/.503/16
22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 24.3 – Missed over a month with a wrist injury, but ripped it up after his return, slashing .338/.372/.581 with 5 homers and 3 steals in 18 games. He performed well in 52 post season PA too (.277/.327/.447), putting to bed any concerns about his slow start and injury. 2021 Projection: 94/25/85/.283/.341/.479/15
23) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 26.11 – Here is what I tweeted about Seager before the season (and echoed these same sentiments in my 2020 Top 1,000): “Look out for a Corey Seager power breakout: Another year removed from Tommy John & hip surgery, raised launch angle to a career high 14.1 degrees, and turns 26 in April, meaning he is entering his “man muscle” years. Good buy low in dynasty and a discount at 148 ADP in redraft.” … A power breakout is exactly what happened, as Seager’s exit velocity exploded to 93.2 MPH and he cranked 23 homers in 70 games including the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 92/30/99/.298/.361/.537/3
24) Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 22.0 – Lost over 30 pounds one month after the season ended and claimed he fell out of shape during the Covid shutdown. The major breakout didn’t happen in 2020, but power did take a step forward with a 3.1 MPH jump in exit velocity to 92.5 MPH. His speed can be measured with a sundial (as my high school coach used to love to yell at me) with a 25.3 ft/sec sprint speed, but after losing the weight this off-season, maybe he can start to turn some more of those groundballs into hits. 2021 Projection: 87/28/92/.286/.361/.501/2
25) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – Strikeout rate ballooned to a career worst 27% which lead to a .263 BA, but he continued to absolutely demolish the ball with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity. Sprint speed dropping to a below average 26.5 ft/sec is not a good sign for his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 91/32/100/.291/.338/.513/5
26) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 26.8 – Got off to a slow start and missed some time with a blister, but Buehler was back to his dominant self by the time the playoffs rolled around, putting up a 1.80 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 25 postseason innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in his first 6 starts of 2019 as well, so I wouldn’t sweat the slow start to this season either. 2021 Projection: 14/3.36/1.10/207 in 180 IP
27) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 24.4 – Incremental improvements in K% (26.6% to 24.8%) and exit velocity (91.2 MPH to 92.4 MPH) further cements Eloy as one of the top young power hitters in the game. Improvements in plate discipline (5.3% BB%) and GB% (51.9%) will unlock his full potential. 2021 Projection: 86/35/100/.278/.331/.541/1
28) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 27.9 – Followed up 2019 breakout by maintaining all of the gains he made along with taking another step in the power department, adding 3 MPH to his FB/LD exit velocity (93.7 MPH). 2021 Projection: 95/22/71/.290/.333/.462/19
29) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 25.8 – After putting up a .440 OPS in the first 37 games, he came back from the dead in the 2nd half, slashing .376/.424/.706 with 6 homers and 16 steals in 22 games. He was coming off major labrum surgery over the off-season, so it’s not a surprise it took him a little bit to shake the rust off. Mondesi might be the most divisive player in the fantasy community right now. 2021 Projection: 83/19/74/.253/.296/.432/48
30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 23.8 – The wheels fell off in September, posting a .136/.237/.173 triple-slash. Overall, Robert was who we thought he was, an elite power/speed combo (11 homers and 9 steals in 56 games) with contact issues (41.6% whiff%). 2021 Projection: 85/26/84/.250/.321/.468/23
31) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 31.7 – Getting bit by the Covid bug must have given Freeman superpowers because he put up career bests is almost every underlying and surface stat there is. It would take too long to list them all. 2021 Projection: 105/35/109/.303/.404/.560/5
32) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 27.10 – Strikeout rate jumped to a career high 33.2% and brought BB% back down to 8% (spiked to 9.4% in 2019). The strong season erased any concerns after the slightly down 2019. 2021 Projection: 14/3.49/1.17/222 in 195 IP
33) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 25.11 – After being my greatest hit in 2019, Meadows turned into my biggest miss in 2020. Strikeout rate jumped to 32.9% and sprint speed tanked to 26.5 ft/sec, which are both completely out of character for his entire professional career. This leads me to believe that his struggles were largely due to catching Covid in July and never getting on track. Buy low. 2021 Projection: 87/26/83/.273/.346/.477/12
34) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 23.9 – Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on both knees in late August. Expected to be ready to go for the start of 2021. He’s one of the most talented young hitters in the game, so the risk is still worth the reward, but the fear of chronic knee issues has to knock him down a bit. 2021 Projection: 82/31/95/.272/.361/.546/1
35) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 30.0 – Season was tanked by a shoulder injury that he suffered on July 29th. Was shut down in September when an MRI revealed inflammation in the AC joint and a bone bruise. Arenado battled a shoulder injury in 2018 as well, so this seems to be a recurring issue. 2021 Projection: 93/35/106/.288/.363/.552/2
36) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 30.10 – Played through a left wrist injury, and while he couldn’t match his elite 2019 career year, he got back to doing Yeoman’s work with a .286/.418/.497 triple-slash, 9 homers, and a 31/38 K/BB in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 91/30/102/.290/.388/.533/3
37) Trevor Bauer FA, RHP, 30.2 – Drastically increased the spin rate on every one of his pitches (other than his changeup which he basically ditched) which resulted in a career high 36% K% and career low 6.1% BB%. 2021 Projection: 14/3.40/1.17/239 in 191 IP
38) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 26.9 – Backed up 2019 breakout with an equally impressive 2020, relying mostly on his dominant fastball/changeup combo. 2021 Projection: 13/3.54/1.18/227 in 180 IP
39) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Never fully recovered from Covid and was dealing with a lack of energy and strength all season. I’m no virologist, so I have no idea what the chances are these issues will last until 2021, but I’m going to assume a return to full health. 2021 Projection: 89/26/85/.263/.344/.475/10
40) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 25.6 – The Cardinals Covid outbreak made an already tough season even tougher for Cardinals players, and Flaherty was never really able to get on track with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP. One thing to keep an eye on is that Flaherty’s BABIP normalized this season (.281) after sitting abnormally low the past 2 seasons. 2021 Projection: 12/3.62/1.20/214 in 184 IP
41) George Springer FA, OF, 31.6 – Put up a career best 35.9% GB% (44.6% in 2019) while also improving his K% to a career best 17.1%. It led to 14 homers in 51 games (plus 4 homers in 13 playoff games). Combined with a career year in 2019, Springer is establishing himself as a near elite hitter. 2021 Projection: 99/34/91/.272/.363/.530/6
42) Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 24.4 – Mediocre numbers on the season (.724 OPS), but this is a pretty clear case of one extended slump tanking your numbers due to the shortened season. If there was any question, he put up a 246 wRC+ in 30 postseason at-bats. 2021 Projection: 92/30/92/.275/.357/.504/4
43) Yu Darvish CHC, RHP, 34.7 – Improved control from the 2nd half of 2019 carried over to 2020 with a career best 4.7% BB%. Also notched a career high 96.2 MPH four seamer velocity. It all resulted in Darvish moving into the very elite tier of pitchers. 2021 Projection: 15/3.27/1.09/223 in 175 IP
44) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 28.4 – Made incremental improvements in K% (30.5%), BB% (8.2%), exit velocity against (86 MPH), and launch angle against (2.2 degrees). 2021 Projection: 13/3.56/1.21/222 in 185 IP
45) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 28.4 – Didn’t pitch more than 5.2 innings in any of his 17 starts, culminating in the now infamous decision to pull him after a dominant 5.1 innings in Game 6 of the World Series. Biggest concern is his elbow, which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019 and a cortisone shot in Feb 2020. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.24/221 in 170 IP
46) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 28.11 – Battled through a stress fracture in his right rib, a right shoulder injury and a right calf strain which limited him to 28 games. The injuries resulted in a 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. He has power to spare, but he has to be on the field to take advantage of it. 2021 Projection: 89/34/86/.263/.361/.541/4
47) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 26.4 – Ripped 10 dingers in September to close out the season after underwhelming in the first half. Alonso is your classic low average slugger. 2021 Projection: 88/40/103/.249/.342/.531/1
48) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Fastball was just as dominant in 2020 as it was in 2019, ranking 2nd in baseball behind only Marco Gonzalez. Changeup, curve, and slider all took a step forward as well. 2021 Projection: 13/3.51/1.15/205 in 170 IP
49) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Built on his 2019 breakout in 2020. BB% dropped down to 8.6%, which is nice to see after the 10.8% mark he put up in 2019 was the biggest cause for concern coming into the year. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.25/202 in 170 IP
50) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 27.7 – K% exploded to 38.2%. Gave back some of the gains he made in BB% in 2019 (up 3.1% to 9.2%) and got hit up for a career worst 90.4 MPH exit velocity, but most of the underlying stats show the 4.08 ERA was unlucky (3.11 xERA and 2.75 xFIP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.48/1.20/205 in 159 IP
51) Trent Grisham SD, OF, 24.5 – Power took a step forward with his FB/LD exit velocity jumping 3.1 MPH to 94 MPH. Tack on a plus plate approach (12.3% BB%), plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint speed), and a reasonable whiff% (24.4%), and even this ranking might be underrating Grisham. 2021 Projection: 92/23/75/.256/.351/.465/21
52) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 21.8 – Was all the buzz at alternate camp, drilling homers and showing increased power. Combine that with a plus hit tool and plus speed, and Kelenic has the ingredients to be an elite all category contributor. 2021 Projection: June-53/15/47/.257/.318/.431/10 Prime Projection: 93/26/89/.282/.355/.478/14
53) Marcell Ozuna FA, OF, 30.5 – Career (shortened) year, cranking 18 homers with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity, 16.4 degree launch angle and 14.2% BB%. Only thing to keep an eye on is that it also came with a career high 31.4% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 86/34/99/.273/.352/.518/5
54) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 27.7 – .575 OPS in first 18 games had many people dropping Gurriel in redrafts, but he closed the season red hot, slashing .345/.390/.634 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 34/11 K/BB in 154 PA. Improved his whiff% by 6.5% to 26.3% and maintained a very strong 90.8 MPH exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 84/28/90/.274/.328/.492/7
55) Sonny Gray CIN, RHP, 31.5 – Not only did Gray maintain his drastic 2019 strikeout breakout, but he actually improved his K% again to 30.6%. 2021 Projection: 12/3.51/1.20/187 in 170 IP
56) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 27.2 – Exit velocity against plummeted to 83.4 MPH, which is completely out of line with the rest of his career and doesn’t feel sustainable. HR/LD rate sat at a miniscule 4.9%. Fried is a damn good pitcher, just not quite this good. 2021 Projection: 13/3.55/1.21/178 in 174 IP
57) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 26.9 – Here is what I tweeted about Brandon Lowe last off-season (and echoed those exact same sentiments in the 2020 Top 1,000), “Brandon Lowe getting seriously underrated. Elite underlying power hitting numbers (18.7 launch, 96 MPH FB/LD), and while 34.6% K% is high, he’s done much better than that every other year of his career including 2018 in the majors. Also has some speed.” … Lowe brought his K% down to 25.9% in 2020 en route to a monster season, slashing .269/.362/.554 with 14 homers, 3 steals, and a 58/25 K/BB in 56 games. 2021 Projection: 85/34/89/.259/.340/.529/8
58) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 27.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2020 and is expected to be out until June or July 2021. If you can take the hit in the 1st half of the season, nabbing Severino is a great way to get a long term ace at a discount. 2021 Projection: 6/3.65/1.20/98 in 90 IP
59) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 23.6 – Solid rookie season, showing off a mid 90’s four seamer and sinker while establishing his curveball and changeup as plus pitches. Health and durability over 180+ innings is still the biggest question mark. 2021 Projection: 9/3.74/1.21/156 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.49/1.19/198 in 183 IP
60) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 26.6 – Developed a cutter which immediately became his most valuable pitch and mostly ditched his 4-seamer which was one of the worst 4-seamers in baseball in 2019. 13.27 K/9 ranked 4th overall behind only Glasnow, Bieber, and deGrom (minimum 30 IP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.71/1.26/192 in 160 IP
61) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 24.8 – Exit velocity dropped 4 MPH to 87.4 MPH, but still put up big power numbers with 13 homers in 59 games. Strikeout rate got even worse (30.7% in 2019 to 34.6% in 2020), but Hiura has shown the ability to make much better contact during his minor league career, so I don’t think all hope is lost. 2021 Projection: 81/30/87/.247/.325/.483/9
62) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 27.11 – Underwent labrum repair surgery on his right hip in September with a 4 month recovery timetable. Chapman took everything to the max in 2020 with his launch angle rising 7.7 degrees to 24.1 degrees, FB/LD exit velocity rising to 99 MPH, and strikeout rate exploding 13.6% to 35.5%. It’s only a 37 game sample, so I’m assuming these numbers would have regressed a bit as the season wore on. 2021 Projection: 95/36/92/.252/.343/.508/1
63) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 28.7 – Whiff% on a 3 year incline culminating with a career worst 31.7% in 2020, but the extremely low .202 BA was mostly due a .214 BABIP. The power was full throttle with 15 bombs in 57 games. 2021 Projection: 83/35/97/.257/.349/.528/3
64) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 27.0 – Career worst strikeout rate (31.4%) and career worst BABIP (.227) led to a .195 batting average. Elite power is intact, so years like this are just part of the deal when you own low average sluggers. 2021 Projection: 82/37/96/.242/.343/.512/1
65) Zach Plesac CLE, RHP, 26.2 – Breakout year with a pitching line of 2.28/0.80/55/6 in 55.1 IP. Strikeout rate exploded with an 11.1% whiff% increase on his changeup. Slider became the 5th most valuable slider in baseball. 2021 Projection: 12/3.69/1.19/164 in 168 IP
66) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 22.11 – Electrifying MLB debut with a pitching line of 1.59/1.10/65/24 in 51 IP including the playoffs. Changeup and curve both put up a whiff% around 40% (39.8% and 40.5% respectively) and the fastball sat at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 10.1% BB% shows control/command could use some improvement. 2021 Projection: 10/3.76/1.26/170 in 155 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.42/1.19/228 in 193 IP
67) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B, 27.6 – Couldn’t maintain his 2019 power breakout, hitting only 2 homers in 45 games as his FB/LD exit velocity dropped 1.9 MPH to 91.6. It was also a product of bad luck as he had a ridiculously low 3.8% HR/FB rate. 2021 Projection: 90/22/84/.291/.346/.469/8
68) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 28.4 – Underlying and surface stats down across the board. Sprint speed dropped to a career low 27.9 ft/sec, which isn’t a great sign as he enters his late 20’s, but also might be a sign he wasn’t in top shape for this slapdash season. 2021 Projection: 88/27/87/.263/.309/.486/9
69) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 22.0 – Armageddon MLB debut with a 41.7% K%, 0 steals, and a .161/.212/.266 triple-slash in 132 PA. Only silver lining was the strong statcast numbers (90.6 MPH exit velocity and 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed). This was the year Adell was supposed to adjust to the Triple-A level after striking out 32.6% of the time there in 2019, so the extreme struggles on the MLB level shouldn’t be surprising. I’m still in. 2021 Projection: 55/17/51/.236/.301/.438/5 Prime Projection: 92/34/96/.262/.341/.512/15
70) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 20.3 – Suffered a hairline fracture in his left wrist in July which sidelined him for most of alternate camp. Struggled in Liga de Beisbol Dominicano, slashing .208/.300/.264 with 0 homers, 3 steals, and a 15/5 K/BB in 53 AB. The lost year and struggles in Winter League don’t change his massive upside. 2021 Projection: 26/7/30/.252/.312/.418/2 Prime Projection: 91/31/99/.277/.353/.522/8
71) Dinelson Lamet SD, RHP, 28.8 – Most valuable slider in baseball by a landslide with a negative 19 run value. Next best is Brad Keller and Matt Wisler at -10. BB% improved for the second season in a row to 7.5%. Suffered from biceps tendinitis late in the season but is not expected to need surgery. 2021 Projection: 10/3.63/1.20/183 in 147 IP
72) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 26.6 – Exploded in the playoffs after a quiet regular season, slashing .362/.455/.766 with 6 homers in 13 games. He hit 5 homers in 58 regular season games. It’s just another example that you can’t put too much stock into only a 60 game sample. 2021 Projection: 84/26/93/.273/.351/.489/3
73) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH, 26.9 – Coming off Tommy John surgery, Ohtani started 2020 with two horrific starts (37.80 ERA in 1.2 IP) and was then shut down from pitching for the season with a grade 1-2 strain of the flexor pronator mass in his right arm. Making matters worse, he didn’t perform all that well at the dish either with a 2.7% increase in K% (28.6%) and a 3.7 MPH decrease in exit velocity (89.1 MPH). He’s too young and talented to sell low on, but next season could be his last to prove he can be a long term two way player. 2021 Projection: Hitting-65/20/68/.258/.349/.486/14 — Pitching-6/3.93/1.31/115 in 100 IP
74) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 23.4 – MLB strikeout rate remained elevated at 27.5% (29.3% in 2019), albeit in a small 69 PA sample. Sprint speed mysteriously dropped to 27.7 ft/sec (28.8 in 2019), which could mean there was some kind of undisclosed injury, and would be oddly encouraging as a reason for the weak numbers (.596 OPS). 2021 Projection: 74/20/69/.258/.327/.441/8 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.274/.348/.472/11
75) Marco Luciano SF, SS, 19.7 – Hit a monster homerun in fall instructional league with an alleged exit velocity of 119 MPH. Matt Daniels, the Giants’ coordinator of pitching sciences, claimed Luciano’s dinger was “quite possibly the furthest home run I’ve ever witnessed in person.” ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 91/33/99/.277/.350/.520/9
76) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 24.8 – Everything but the strikeouts were there in the regular season (3.27 ERA with 45 K’s in 55 IP) and those exploded in the playoffs with 29 K’s in 23 IP. Continues to be among the best in the league at inducing weak contact. 2021 Projection: 10/3.49/1.18/134 in 140 IP
77) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 33.0 – Velocity up 1.3 MPH from 2019, but is still down overall at 91.6 MPH. Continues to dominate with the decreased velocity even as his FIP’s/xERA’s,/xFip’s etc … have all risen to slightly more mortal levels. 2021 Projection: 13/3.32/1.07/187 in 177 IP
78) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 32.8 – Limited to only 2 starts due to carpel tunnel syndrome in his right hand which required surgery in August. He’s expected to be ready to go for 2021. Injuries have been a thorn in Strasburg’s side for his entire career. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.16/195 in 167 IP
79) Starling Marte MIA, OF, 32.6 – Numbers were right in line with career norms, but if you take out the magnifying glass and investigate for signs of decline, you would see a career worst 4.26 second runtime from home plate to first base (up from 4.15) and a 1.5 MPH decline in exit velocity (87.1 MPH). If your team gets off to a slow start in 2021, Marte is a piece you definitely want to put on the block. 2021 Projection: 83/20/74/.275/.332/.447/24
80) Whit Merrifield KC, 2B/OF, 32.4 – Speed slightly declined every year over the last 4 years, dropping to a career worst 28.4 ft/sec in 2020. Similar to Starling Marte, I would try to milk one more good year out of Merrifield before putting him on the trade block. 2021 Projection: 89/18/71/.292/.340/.451/24
81) JT Realmuto FA, C, 30.1 – Slowly improved power production nearly every year of his career, culminating with a career high .225 ISO and 11 homers in 47 games in 2020, but it came at the cost of some swing and miss with a whiff% that jumped 6% to a career high 29.8%. 2021 Projection: 86/25/81/.268/.343/.487/8
82) Cavan Biggio TOR, 2B, 26.0 – Maintained high walk rate (15.5%) while bringing strikeout rate down 5.6% to 23%. He doesn’t crush the ball (91.6 MPH FB/LD exit velo), but he hits it in the air and is an excellent base stealer at a perfect 20 for 20 in his 159 game MLB career. 2021 Projection: 96/23/73/.257/.370/.441/13
83) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Torkelson launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3
84) Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 23.0 – Flip a coin between Vaughn and Tork. Vaughn will give you less power but a better average and will likely be hitting in a better lineup for the foreseeable future. I still lean with Tork and the extra power, but it’s close. 2021 Projection: June-38/12/36/.257/.335/.444/1 Prime Projection: 92/29/95/.282/.364/.509/3
85) Alec Bohm PHI, 3B, 24.9 – Excellent MLB debut, slashing .338/.400/.481 with 4 homers and a 20%/8.9% K%/BB%. BABIP was high (.410) and FB% was low (25.4%), but he hit the ball very hard (90.2 MPH exit velo) and he did a much better job of lifting the ball at Double-A in 2019 (40.7% FB%). 2021 Projection: 78/23/86/.272/.338/.444/4 Prime Projection: 88/27/96/.285/.357/.488/5
86) Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 26.1 – I saw the writing on the wall in my 2020 Top 1,000 ranking, writing, “Hit the ball hard in his MLB debut with a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity to go along with plus speed and a good feel to hit.” But then I got scared off by the playing time logjam in Tampa, writing, “Joining the deep and talented Rays roster likely limits his upside to a super utility player in the near future,” and ultimately ranked him 677th overall. The rest is history, as Arozarena bullied his way into an everyday role and exploded with a .333 BA, 17 homers, 4 steals, and a 41/14 K/BB in 43 games including the playoffs. He showed off the same high exit velocities and speed that he showed in his brief 2019 debut. 2021 Projection: 84/25/78/.257/.331/.463/14
87) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 36.8 – The signs of decline reared their ugly head towards the end of 2019 after injuring his back (4.81 ERA in final 43 IP), and they continued into 2020 with an elevated walk rate (up 3% to 7.8%) and pedestrian ERA (3.75). The stuff was still great and the strikeouts were at career norms, so even at his advanced age, there is a chance this is less of an extended decline and more of blip on the radar. 2021 Projection: 14/3.30/1.13/246 in 187 IP
88) DJ LeMahieu FA, 2B, 32.9 – It turns out Yankee Stadium was even more advantageous for LeMahieu than Coors field was as this was the 2nd year in a row that he notched a career high ISO (.226 in 2020). Also decreased K% to a career low 9.7%. 2021 Projection: 96/22/78/.307/.362/.495/6
89) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 30.11 – Monster postseason (234 wRC+ in 13 games) salvaged a disastrous regular season (77 wRC+ in 48 games). He came down with a case of the yips at second base, so some of those struggles could have been mental. The one thing that does look certain is that his days of racking up steals are over as he went 2 for 7 on stolen base attempts. 2021 Projection: 92/23/71/.287/.345/.477/7
90) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 31.5 – Classic Stanton season. A hamstring injury limited him to only 30 games including the playoffs, but he mashed in those games with 10 dingers. 2021 Projection: 86/38/88/.257/.362/.542/2
91) Lance McCullers Jr. HOU, RHP, 27.7 – Took him a bit to shake the rust off in his return from Tommy John, but he looked excellent when he did with a pitching line of 2.89/1.02/68/15 in final 56 IP including the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 10/3.76/1.26/161 in 145 IP
92) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 26.9 – BB% jumped 5.2% to a career high 10.8% and whiff% dropped 3.4% to a career low 25% but it couldn’t prevent Laureano from putting together a mediocre season (.704 OPS). The gains he made in those areas are a good sign, but the drop in sprint speed for the 2nd year in a row (27.9 ft/sec) calls into question his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 89/25/85/.268/.335/.468/10
93) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 28.1 – Surface stat breakout but it was mostly due to good fortune (.412 BABIP) as most of the underlying numbers remained relatively similar. 2021 Projection: 89/28/91/.270/.370/.490/5
94) Eddie Rosario FA, OF, 29.6 – Improved the weakest part of his game, upping BB% 4.5% to a now very respectable 8.2%. I can’t think of a single player who gets less hype and less love relative to their production in fantasy than Rosario. Poor defense makes him overrated in real life. 2021 Projection: 86/29/91/.275/.326/.496/7
95) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 24.2 – Eye opening MLB debut with a .376/.442/.682 triple-slash, 5 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.1%/9.5% K%/BB%. Plus plate approach completely transferred to the majors, and with a 92.8 MPH exit velocity, you don’t have to hit many flyballs (30.8% FB%) to knock a few dingers out. Tack on a 28 ft/sec sprint speed and even this ranking might be too conservative. 2021 Projection: 82/22/76/.276/.343/.466/10
96) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 22.1 – Didn’t stand out at alternate camp, having some issues with his delivery, command, and velocity. Ace upside is still there, but San Diego did not think he was ready. 2021 Projection: 7/3.95/1.32/125 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.40/1.15/221 in 193 IP
97) Jose Abreu CHW, 1B, 34.2 – Abreu was almost singlehandedly the reason why I was overtaken for 1st place in that 18 team league I was talking about in the Wander Franco blurb. I inherited a perennial doormat and turned the team around into a winner overnight, so I can’t be upset at 2nd place, but damn if it didn’t seem like Abreu hit at least one homer a day from about mid August on. 2021 Projection: 82/30/101/.298/.352/.537/1
98) Dansby Swanson ATL, SS, 27.2 – Power continues to improve slowly but surely with a career high .190 ISO. Strikeout rate increased 4.1% to a career high 26.9% and needed a .350 BABIP to buoy his .274 BA. 2021 Projection: 89/23/74/.264/.339/.458/11
99) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 23.2 – Had two big hits in 2020, not in a professional baseball game (there were none of those for minor leaguers), but on social media, going viral twice with an instagram post and TikTok video. As for baseball, the reports from alternate camp did nothing to quell the hype of Rutschman becoming the best catcher in baseball. 2021 Projection: July-27/10/32/.251/.326/.437/1 Prime Projection: 83/27/88/.280/.359/.498/3
100) Luke Voit NYY, 1B, 30.2 – Led the league in homers with 22, and brought K% down to a career low 23.1%. Voit’s done nothing but rake for 3 straight years now. 2021 Projection: 82/31/93/.264/.341/.505/0
101) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 27.3 – Continues to improve power with a 1.8 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity to 96.8 MPH, leading to 13 homers in 39 games, while maintaining a not unreasonable 28.9% whiff%. Patience (1.5% BB%), stolen base attempts (1 for 3 on the season), and durability (sprained left foot, left shoulder inflammation, and a concussion) are still major areas of concern. 2021 Projection: 77/27/81/.258/.303/.495/15
102) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 32.0 – Underwent Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020. Like Severino, will likely be out until the 2nd half of the season, but it creates a buying opportunity if your team has struggled to find an ace. 2021 Projection: 5/3.67/1.22/103 in 80 IP
103) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 29.1 – Traded strikeouts for power, putting up a career best 91 MPH exit velocity and career worst 28.5% K%. Low BABIP (.257) kept his overall numbers slightly down (.784 OPS). 2021 Projection: 89/30/87/.262/.329/.502/2
104) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 28.2 – Continues to produce poor BABIP’s (career .252), making the low batting averages hard to call bad luck even with the excellent contact rates (21.2% whiff%). Increased launch angle every year of his career (21.9 degrees in 2020), so the power isn’t going anywhere. 2021 Projection: 91/30/88/.258/.339/.479/5
105) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B, 29.3 – Constantly banged up with a variety of ailments (sore back, mild left elbow injury, soreness around left ring finger and wrist, and lower oblique tightness), which can partially explain the very down season (.644 OPS). Underlying and surface stats were down across the board, but considering the 34 game sample, weird season, and constant injuries, a bounce back should be in order. 2021 Projection: 91/27/79/.269/.361/.480/4
106) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 23.10 – Gained about 15 pounds of muscle over last off-season and it resulted in a career low 28 ft/sec sprint speed (29.3 in 2019). It didn’t help his power either with his exit velocity dropping to a cover your eyes, career low 82.2 MPH. K% ballooned to 28% as well. Trade value is so low the only thing you can do is hold. 2021 Projection: 81/16/69/.258/.327/.417/20
107) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 33.7 – The strikeout rate was a bit high, walk rate a bit low, and exit velocity a bit down, but none of his underlying numbers were really too far off from his career norms. Age is a factor, so this might might be the start of a decline phase, but it also might be just a down year in a small sample size. 2021 Projection: 88/32/96/.284/361/.530/3
108) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 34.9 – Slashed .500/.527/.721 in his first 74 PA and then closed the year out with a .216/283/.327 triple-slash in final 173 PA. Relatively weak .804 OPS could have been due to wearing down after testing positive for Covid in June, or maybe it was due to simply not being given the chance to get hot again in the shortened season. 2021 Projection: 91/27/86/.296/.349/.491/6
109) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 33.7 – Career best 18.6% K% led to a .304 batting average but it came at the expense of some power (8 homers in 61 games including playoffs). 2021 Projection: 88/28/87/.283/.376/.489/4
110) Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 22.6 – Mediocre pro debut (.616 OPS in 119 PA), but was just starting to heat up toward the end of the season, slashing .295/.377/.614 in final 53 PA including the playoffs. FB/LD exit velocity was very strong at 96.6 MPH and a .260 BABIP is sure to improve. 2021 Projection: 76/22/71/.258/.323/.436/8 Prime Projection: 92/27/86/.273/.341/.482/9
111) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 18.2 – Boy do they grow up fast. Dominguez looks like an absolute tank now, but the swing still looks mighty athletic. The added weight isn’t scaring me away, but it does seem to push the risk/reward up to even more extreme levels on both ends. Maybe I’m a sucker for upside, but a player with elite all category upside is someone I’m willing to risk it all for … and by risk it all, I mean Jose Berrios and players ranked after him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/31/95/.273/.356/.521/17
112) Jose Berrios MIN, RHP, 26.10 – Velocity up on all of his pitches, leading to a career high 27.4% whiff% but also a 3.5% increase in walk rate (9.6%). Overall performance didn’t change all that much (4.00 ERA), but the increase in velocity gives him a nice little boost in upside. 2021 Projection: 13/3.91/1.28/187 in 180 IP
113) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 28.7 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2020 and will likely miss half the season. Syndergaard is the last of the discounted Tommy John surgery aces, joining Severino and Sale. 2021 Projection: 4/3.83/1.26/85 in 80 IP
114) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 21.10 – Reports from alternate camp have Lewis hitting for more power while maintaining a good BA as he continues to tweak his hitting mechanics. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/23/82/.273/.332/.452/21
115) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 20.4 – Added 25 pounds of muscle from the time OG Spring Training got shut down to his arrival at alternate camp on August 20. Team officials were gushing over the prodigious power and elite athleticism. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/30/92/.252/.338/.509/16
116) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 22.8 – Here’s your obligatory alternate camp prospect porn of Downs ripping a homer. He likely won’t be breaking any exit velocity or sprint speed records, but he lifts the ball with a good feel to hit and has above average base stealing skills. 2021 Projection: May-72/18/66/.258/.322/.435/9 Prime Projection: 91/26/88/.274/.341/.473/14
117) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 20.6 – Plus hit tool and plus speed shined through in his 2019 pro debut, slashing .401/.442/.662 with 14 steals and a 9% K% in 32 rookie ball games, and now reports from alternate camp have been glowing with positive physical development and added strength. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 94/20/79/.283/.345/.448/28
118) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 22.8 – Strong MLB debut with a pitching line of 3.46/1.21/33/11 in 39 IP. Exactly as advertised with elite stuff that produces weak contact but doesn’t produce big strikeout numbers. 2021 Projection: 9/3.83/1.24/133 in 146 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.59/1.14/181 in 183 IP
119) Franmil Reyes CLE, OF, 25.9 – Maintained elite exit velocity and raised launch angle 1.7 degrees to 11.2, but whiff rate increased for the 2nd year in a row to a concerning 38.5% 2021 Projection: 76/31/90/.257/.326/.491/0
120) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 91/23/80/.276/.347/.449/13
121) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 20.10 – Witt looked good enough at alternate camp that team officials thought he could hold his own in the majors right now. That could put him on the fast track, maybe breaking into the majors as an outfielder. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.264/.332/.472/19
122) Gio Urshela NYY, 3B, 29.6 – Underwent surgery to remove a bone chip from his right elbow in December, and is expected to be ready to go for 2021. BB% jumped 5% to 10.3%, K% dropped 3.9% to 14.4%, and exit velocity increased 0.9 MPH to 91.4 MPH. At worst he backed up 2019’s breakout, and at best there could be a monster season coming in 2021. I told you last year in my 2020 Top 1,000 that “these out of nowhere, late career breakout players remain the most underrated assets in dynasty leagues,” and there seems to be one last buying opportunity this off-season. 2021 Projection: 84/26/93/.282/.341/.486/1
123) Kenta Maeda MIN, RHP, 33.0 – Was itching to get back to being a full time starter and he backed it up with a dominate 2019, putting up a pitching line of 2.70/0.75/80/10 in 66.2 IP. He did it with a 6 pitch mix that notched him career highs in K% (32.3%), BB% (4%), exit velocity (85.3 MPH), and launch angle (10.8 degrees). 2021 Projection: 12/3.52/1.13/169 in 162 IP
124) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 25.8 – Slashed .244/.327/.489 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 10/6 K/BB in 14 games before coming down with Covid. He went 2 for 32 upon his return. Even with the poor finish, the underlying stats look very encouraging, notching a 19.2% K% with a 16.3 degree launch angle, 88.3 MPH exit velocity, and 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. The ingredients are there for a 2021 breakout, and the price to acquire Senzel couldn’t be cheaper. 2021 Projection: 81/22/76/.265/.329/.448/17
125) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 20.7 – Wowed Diamondback officials at alternate camp, stinging balls all over the field and showing off his lightening fast speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 88/20/80/.272/.341/.453/27
126) Nate Pearson TOR, RHP, 24.7 – Flexor strain in right elbow limited Pearson to 20 IP with a 5.40 ERA, but the stuff was as advertised with a 96.3 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 8/4.11/1.33/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.56/1.20/190 in 178 IP
127) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 28.6 – Exit velocity exploded from very good to elite levels in 2020, crushing baseballs to the tune of a 93.3 MPH exit velocity and 98.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity en route to 16 homers in 50 games. I’m inclined to call it a career year rather than a breakout, because his K% (30.4%) and BB% (6.8%) did not improve along with the exit velocity, and a .261/.311/.463 triple-slash in his final 18 games was more in line with his career norms. 2021 Projection: 76/28/84/.251/.318/.496/8
128) Lance Lynn CHW, RHP, 33.11 – Had a 1.93 ERA until the month of September where he got hit up for a 5.51 ERA, including a 9 ER disaster in the last start of the season. Dominates with 3 different fastballs (4-seam, cutter, sinker) while mixing in a curve and the occasional change. 2021 Projection: 13/3.70/1.25/184 in 178 IP
129) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Strikeout rate tanked 5.2% to 18.4% due to a 26.6% whiff% decrease on the curve and 7.1% whiff% decrease on the fastball. It didn’t impact his ERA or WHIP at all (2.92/1.17) and most of the damage came in the first 4 starts of the season (41 K’s in 45 IP in final 7 starts). 2021 Projection: 11/3.70/1.24/174 in 180 IP
130) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 31.8 – Velocity dropped over 1.5 MPH on all of his pitches and it resulted in Corbin getting hit harder (90.7 MPH exit velocity against) and striking out fewer batters (20.3% K%). 2021 Projection: 12/3.85/1.25/180 in 181 IP
131) Carlos Carrasco CLE, RHP, 34.0 – Beat Leukemia in 2019 and he barely skipped a beat as he was back to his normal self in 2020 with a pitching line of 2.91/1.21/82/27 in 68 IP. The only thing out of line was a huge jump in BB%, increasing 4.9% to 9.6%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.78/1.22/181 in 163 IP
132) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 27.4 – As predicted by pretty much everyone Gallo wasn’t1 able to maintain 2019’s .253 BA (.181 in 2020). Exit velocity was very strong (91.2 MPH), but it wasn’t in the land of the elite like it had been over the last 3 years. Obviously gets a huge bump in anything but standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 89/38/91/.212/.331/.510/4
133) Ian Happ CHC, OF, 26.8 – 35.7% whiff% is in the danger zone territory, but Happ took his power to another level with a 91.1 MPH exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 86/27/84/.250/.343/.482/6
134) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 28.0 – Dominated in first 23 IP (1.57 ERA) until an upper back injury popped up and tanked his season, putting up a 8.70 ERA in final 30 IP. Excellent bounce back candidate with a clean bill of health heading into 2021. 2021 Projection: 10/3.89/1.28/168 in 160 IP
135) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 25.3 – ERA ballooned to 5.02 due to lack of fastball command (fastball spin also took a step back) and inability to develop a viable third pitch. One or both will have to improve in order to remain in the rotation and hold off San Diego’s horde of talented pitching prospects. 2021 Projection: 8/4.12/1.21/151 in 145 IP
136) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 23.8 – Durability concerns over extremely slight frame are warranted as McKenzie’s velocity was in a steady decline in his first 6 starts before being moved to the pen in his final two appearances. What can’t be questioned is the productivity as he put up the same dominant stats, both surface and underlying, in the Majors that he did in the minors. The upside is too high to pass up, and I’m betting on nature doing it’s thing and slowing down that metabolism as he ages. 2021 Projection: 7/3.90/1.24/128 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.51/1.16/195 in 178 IP
137) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 27.4 – Vastly improved BB%, dropping it from 13.4% to 5.6% en route to a breakout season (3.57 ERA). Groundball pitcher with a negative launch angle against (-0.7 degrees), but gets hit hard with a 91.7 MPH exit velocity against. Throws the third most valuable curveball in the game behind only German Marquez and Shane Bieber. 2021 Projection: 10/3.75/1.28/169 in 165 IP
138) Joe Musgrove PIT, RHP, 28.4 – Right triceps inflammation limited Musgrove to 39.2 IP. Strikeouts (11.2% increase to 33.1%) and whiffs (8.3% increase to 33%) exploded on the back of his slider (11.3% whiff% increase to 50.6%) and curveball (13.6% whiff% increase to 53.2%). Slider spin rate was up 183 revolutions to 2677 and curveball spin rate was up 137 revolutions to to 2712, further backing up the strikeout gains. The K’s came with at the expense of some control with his BB% increasing 4.2% to a career worst 9.6%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.68/1.25/168 in 155 IP
139) Luis Patino SD, RHP, 21.5 – Poor MLB debut with a pitching line of 5.19/1.85/21/14 in 17.1 IP. The stuff was as advertised with 96.7 MPH heat, a changeup that put up a .211 xwOBA, and a slider with a 47.8% whiff%, but the poor debut likely puts him on the outside looking in for a 2021 rotation spot. 2021 Projection: 3/4.19/1.34/94 in 89 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.58/1.20/191 in 175 IP
140) Kyle Lewis SEA, OF, 25.9 – Started the season on fire, slashing .373/.440/.567 with 4 homers and a 22/8 K/BB in first 75 PA, and then closed the season on ice, slashing .139/.258/.266 with 3 homers and a 34/13 K/BB in final 93 PA. Increase in sprint speed to 27.9 ft/sec is a good sign the major knee injury is behind him. 2021 Projection: 86/25/79/.244/.328/.452/9
141) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 28.0 – Underwent internal brace repair surgery on the UCL in his left elbow in early October with a 4-6 month timetable. Hoskins continues to be an extreme fly ball hitter (51.9%) with extreme patience (15.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 87/30/84/.241/.376/.498/3
142) Marcus Semien FA, SS, 30.6 – Regressed right back to pre 2019 breakout levels with strikeout rate rising 7.5% to 21.2% and ISO declining from .237 to .157. Picked it up in 7 playoff games (219 wRC+), so while it looks like 2019 was a career year, maybe some of the gains were real if given a full season. 2021 Projection: 88/24/70/.260/.341/.453/11
143) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 31.8 – Low BABIP (.218), career worst exit velocity (87.7 MPH), and career worst sprint speed (24.8 ft/sec) is responsible for the down season (.755 OPS). Maybe his chronic bad back is starting to take a toll, but FB/LD exit velocity and K/BB were still strong, so I’m leaning towards it being a down year rather than the start of a true decline. 2021 Projection: 86/26/89/.273/.374/.496/5
144) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 28.8 – An out of character 26.5% K% was the driving force for Bell’s down year, but he was starting to come out of it in the 2nd half, slashing .270/.360/.446 with 4 homers and a 18/11 K/BB in 24 games. Bell blamed the down year on the fact watching in-game video was banned in 2020, which he leaned on heavily in 2019, so the strong finish is a good sign he was starting to get used to a new routine. 2020 Projection: 78/25/85/.265/.353/.474/1
145) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/3B, 30.7 – .203 BABIP and 44.1% GB% (37.8% in 2019) is responsible for the .192 BA. Everything is else was mostly in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 91/30/86/.240/.362/.501/3
146) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 29.1 – Oblique strain ended Soler’s season in early September. Maintained exit velocity gains made in 2019 putting him in near elite territory, but strikeout rate exploded 8.3% to career worst 34.5%. 2021 Projection: 79/32/94/.247/.337/.503/2
147) Jazz Chisholm MIA, SS, 23.2 – Struggled in his 62 PA MLB Debut (.161/.242/.321) but there were some positive signs in the underlying stats, most notably a reasonable 25.7% whiff%. He continued to hit the ball in the air (15.6 degree launch angle), and while exit velocity was below average (87.1 MPH), that will inevitably go up as he averaged a 91.4 MPH exit velocity in 2019 at Double-A. 2021 Projection: May-61/19/56/.236/.307/.418/9 Prime Projection: 83/27/81/.257/.338/.473/12
148) Dylan Bundy LAA, RHP, 28.4 – The breakout that everyone and their 2nd cousin twice removed saw coming, Bundy put up a pitching line of 3.29/1.04/72/17 in 65.2 IP. Exit velocity against dropped to a career best 87 MPH, but 4-seamer velocity is on a 4 year decline to a now career low 90 MPH. 2021 Projection: 11/3.82/1.24/175 in 167 IP
149) Dylan Moore SEA, OF, 28.8 – Power is legit with a 90.4 MPH exit velocity, 95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, and a 17.3 degree launch angle, which he pairs with a not too bad 27.2% Whiff%. I’m concerned the stolen bases will dry up a bit considering a poor 61% career success rate and a falling sprint speed (down 0.7 ft/sec to 27.7). 2021 Projection: 80/24/77/.241/.323/.447/17
150) Hyun Jin Ryu TOR, LHP, 34.0 – Ballpark downgrade? No problem. NL West to AL (Covid adjusted) East? No problem. Ryu kept rolling with a pitching line of 2.69/1.15/72/17 in 67 IP. The only problem he did have was in his one playoff start where Tampa hit him up for 7 earned in 1.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.18/163 in 168 IP
151) Kevin Gausman SF, RHP, 30.3 – Breakout season with a pitching line of 3.62/1.11/79/16 in 59.2 IP. Velocity on 4-seamer bumped up 1.2 MPH to 95.1 MPH, and slings the most valuable splitter in baseball by far, putting up a .150 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 12/3.78/1.25/181 in 168 IP
152) Tyler Mahle CIN, RHP, 26.6 – Breakout year with a pitching line of 3.59/1.15/60/21 in 47.2 IP. K% skyrocketed 6.7% to 29.9%, and it’s backed up by a 10.4% increase in whiff% and spin rate increases of about 200-300 revolutions on his most used pitches (4-seam, slider, splitter). 2021 Projection: 10/3.92/1.29/162 in 152 IP
153) Aaron Civale CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Continued to post well below average exit velocities against (87.1 MPH average and 90.7 MPH FB/LD) while improving his whiff% (up 3.7% to 25%) and BB% (down 2.9% to 5.1%). 2021 Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/157 in 166 IP
154) Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 23.5 – First player to make his Major League debut as a starter in a playoff game, going 1 for 4. Kirilloff is a natural hitter who is poised to hit for both and power and average on the next level, and with Rosario non-tendered, he could get that shot starting from Opening Day. 2021 Projection: 72/20/77/.268/.327/.435/5 Prime Projection: 85/25/93/.280/.343/.477/7
155) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 22.3 – Concerns over free swinging ways has Waters dropping down many lists, but he is an excellent athlete with fantasy friendly upside and has been pushed aggressively in his pro career. He has plus bat control and hits the ball very hard. I’m still in. 2021 Projection: July-38/9/31/.259/.309/.411/8 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.271/.328/.448/15
156) Miguel Sano MIN, 1B, 27.11 – Strikeout rate actually managed to get worse, posting a career worst 43.9% K% leading to a .204 BA, and you can’t blame some of that on poor BABIP luck (.301). 2021 Projection: 86/36/88/.225/.315/.497/0
157) Leody Taveras TEX, OF, 22.7 – The triple-slash (.227/.308/.395) wasn’t very impressive, but there were some very encouraging takeaways in his 33 game MLB debut. He was a perfect 8 for 8 on the bases with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. 10.4% BB%, 88.9 MPH exit velocity and 14.3 degree launch angle are all very strong marks. 32.1% K% is high and 91.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity could use some improvement, but overall there is a lot to be excited about. 2021 Projection: 75/14/58/.243/.311/.401/22 Prime Projection: 82/20/62/.258/.330/.432/25
158) Josh Hader MIL, Closer, 28.0 – Velocity down 1 MPH on the fastball (94.5 MPH) and 1.6 MPH on the slider (80.3) MPH). BB% hit a career worst 12.8%. It all led to a slightly down year with a 3.79 ERA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.22/0.99/105/33 in 68 IP
159) Jonathan Villar FA, 2B/SS, 29.11 – Career low exit velocity (2.2 MPH drop to 86.7 MPH) led to a .232/.301/.292 triple-slash. Sprint speed also hit a career low (27.1 ft/sec), but it didn’t effect his stolen base totals much as he stole 16 bags in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 77/15/66/.254/.326/.408/33
160) Wil Myers SD, OF, 30.4 – Career year with a .288/.353/.606 triple-slash and 15 homers in 55 games. Strikeout rate bounced back to 25.7% after ballooning to 34.3% in 2019. Only negative was the lack of stolen bases with a mere 3 attempts and career worst 4.41 HP to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 81/26/78/.250/.332/.457/10
161) Kyle Schwarber FA, OF, 28.9 – .219 BABIP is the main culprit for the .188 BA. Exit velocity and launch angle dropped a bit, but considering the shortened season and otherwise strong power and patience numbers, he’s the same low average slugger that he always was. 2021 Projection: 84/32/83/.242/.339/.498/3
162) Will Smith LAD, C, 26.0 – Incredible improvements in K% (down 10.4% to 16.1%) and BB% (up 5.4% to 14.6%), and not only did it not cost him anything in FB/LD exit velocity, but he improved that too with a 2.4 MPH increase to 94.5 MPH. It only came in 37 games due to a time share with Austin Barnes, and he couldn’t maintain those numbers in 18 playoff games (65 wRC+). 2021 Projections: 65/24/69/.263/.348/.498/2
163) Sean Murphy OAK, C, 26.6 – Exit velocity moved into elite territory with a 1.5 MPH increase to 92.2 MPH. Whiff% dropped 4.8% to 25%, BB% mushroomed 7.1% to 17.1%, and launch angle jumped 7.4 degrees to 14.7 degrees. OPS dropped from .899 to .821, but the underlying numbers are telling a different story. A big breakout could be incoming. 2021 Projection: 76/25/73/.253/.340/.482/1
164) Jesse Winker CIN, OF, 27.7 – The long awaited power outbreak finally materialized with 12 homers in 55 games on the back of a 3 MPH increase in exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and 2.5 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity (96 MPH). It came with an 11% increase in whiff% (29%), but the walk rate rose with it to 15.3%. 2021 Projection: 84/25/78/.268/.362/.479/1
165) Alex Verdugo BOS, OF, 24.11 – Strikeout rate jumped 7.4% to 20.4%, but a .371 BABIP kept his BA high (.308). 2.4 MPH drop in exit velocity (87 MPH) is the most concerning thing, because with a 5.9 degree launch angle, he needs to hit the ball very hard to do any real damage on a consistent basis. 2021 Projection: 85/20/71/.276/.335/.450/10
166) Mike Soroka ATL, RHP, 23.8 – Torn right Achilles tendon which required surgery ended Soroka’s season after just 13.2 IP. There is no timetable, but he is expected to be throwing by the time Spring Training starts. 2021 Projection: 9/3.81/1.24/133 in 154 IP
167) Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 26.11 – 4-seeamer velocity jumped 1.5 MPH to 95.1 MPH and upped the whiff% on all of his pitches by a few percentage points en route to an excellent season (2.31/0.84/46/7 in 46.2 IP). If he was guaranteed a rotation spot, he would rank at least 20 spots higher. 2021 Projection: 7/3.76/1.23/120 in 120 IP
168) Tommy Edman STL, 3B/OF/SS, 25.11 – Couldn’t repeat his 2019 breakout with most of the underlying numbers coming in at slightly worse levels in 2020. Nothing was completely out of character, other than raising his BB% 2.4% to 7%, so I’m expecting a bit of a rebound in 2021. 2021 Projection: 79/14/71/.276/.332/.418/16
169) Andres Gimenez NYM, SS, 22.7 – Solid MLB debut, slashing .263/.333/.398 with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.2%/5.3% K%/BB% in 132 PA. Speed is legit with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed, but power is questionable with a 86.8/89.9 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 75/12/55/.259/.324/.391/22 Prime Projection: 86/15/59/.274/.338/.417/24
170) Dominic Smith NYM, 1B/OF, 25.10 – Power broke out with 10 homers in 50 games on the back of a 3.1 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity. Playing time could still be tight, but if he keeps mashing, NY will have no choice but to play him everyday. 2021 Projection: 76/24/84/.266/.330/.471/1
171) Kyle Hendricks CHC, RHP, 31.4 – Hendrick’s pinpoint control somehow managed to actually get better with a league leading mark of 0.9 BB/9. He doesn’t strike many out (7.1 K/9) but his exit velocity against is consistently among the best in the league (86.2 MPH). 2021 Projection: 13/3.62/1.18/148 in 175 IP
172) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 21.3 – Got rave reviews at alt camp with his mature approach and murdering of baseballs. Rumor has it that Casas was drilled by a Tanner Houck pitch, refused to take first base, and then smashed a homer off him … Stuff of legend … but also makes you wonder what kind of baseball was being played at these alt sites. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/30/92/.263/.345/.505/3
173) Tommy Pham SD, OF, 33.1 -Got stabbed in the lower back at a strip club parking club in October and required emergency surgery to close the wound. He’s suing the strip club for “catastrophic injuries,” but it’s unclear how much the injury will effect him long term. A fractured hamate bone limited him to 31 games in 2020. Surface stats were mediocre (.624 OPS), but the underlying numbers looked much better and were in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 80/20/71/.264/.358/.446/15
174) Eduardo Rodriguez BOS, LHP, 28.0 – Missed all of 2020 after testing positive for Covid in early July which eventually caused myocarditis (inflammation of the heart). The expectation is for him to have a normal off-season and be a full go for 2021. 2021 Projection: 11/3.89/1.29/166 in 160 IP
175) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 24.0 – Strong MLB debut, putting up a pitching line of 3.48/0.99/54/18 in 54.1 IP. Induced weak contact with a 86.9 MPH exit velocity against, which was mostly due a 75.9 MPH exit velo against on his slider (.146 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 9/3.90/1.27/153 in 145 IP
176) Randal Grichuk TOR, OF, 29.8 – Notched a career best 21.2% K% while fully maintaining all of his power (12 homers and a 95.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 76/29/84/.251/.304/.480/3
177) Mike Yastrzemski SF, OF, 30.7 – At worst he proved the 2019 breakout was no fluke, and at best he took his game to an even higher level. BB% skyrocketed 5.5% to 13.3% and K% dropped 1.6% to 24.4%. Continued to hit for power with 10 homers and a 18.4 degree launch angle in 54 games. 2021 Projection: 85/25/79/.262/.340/.481/6
178) Paul DeJong STL, SS, 27.8 – Got caught up in the Cardinals Covid outbreak, testing positive in early August. Hit only 3 homers in 45 games, but with a 21.7 degree launch angle and 93.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity some of that can be attributed to bad luck, further evidenced by an out of character 6.4% FB/LD%. Whiff% rose 8.1% to a career worst 32.3% and sprint speed dropped to a career low 26.5 ft/sec, but considering the Covid and all the doubleheaders the Cardinals had to play, I’m not giving it too much stock . 2021 Projection: 82/26/84/.244/.320/.456/5
179) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 28.4 – Poor defense could move him off catcher in the near future. Continues to display elite exit velocity (99 MPH FB/LD), but the contact issues are getting worse with a career high 36% K%. BABIP was hilariously low (.159) and whiff% didn’t increase nearly as much (1.7% jump to 34%), so I do believe a bounce back is in order. 2021 Projection: 67/30/81/.226/.315/.507/0
180) Nate Lowe TEX, 1B, 25.9 – Just when you thought the real life value of blocked corner only power bats were at an all time low, Tampa pulls a rabbit out of their hat landing a premium prospect haul for Lowe. Every other team manages to find these guys for little or nothing. Dynasty value is a different story with Lowe now ticketed for a full time job. His power and patience have translated to the majors with 11 homers and a 9% BB% in 245 career MLB PA, but the hit tool hasn’t with a 31.8% K%. 2021 Projection: 78/25/81/.256/.341/.464/1
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)