Today’s Rundown is more of buy/sell/price check based on early season returns rather than a traditional Rundown. Check out my Patreon for the 2021/22 Top 30 First Year Player Draft Rankings that I will be expanding on as we get closer to the draft, and I’m also working on a Dynasty Rankings update that should drop at the end of the month. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/19/21):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE TOP 30 FYPD RANKINGS, TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS, AND A DYNASTY RANKINGS UPDATE COMING AT THE END OF THE MONTH

Yermin Mercedes CHW, C, 28.2 – Ripped his 4th homer and while his exit velocity doesn’t jump out at 87.7 MPH, he has an elite 12.8% whiff% and 10.5% Brls/PA%. Yermin is a “buy high” for me, meaning I would target him in a trade because nobody will expect you to give up your very best prospects and there is a good chance you can strike a very reasonable deal.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, SS, 23.2 – I was encouraged by Jazz’s 25.5% whiff% in 2020, shooting him up my rankings, and he is rewarding my faith in 2021 keeping it at a reasonable 30.7%. He’s also been absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH exit velocity, and his speed is up a bit too with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed. I don’t have to tell you guys because he’s been the talk of the town, but this is a full on breakout.

Sean Murphy OAK, C, 26.6 – Cracked his 1st homer of the year and there will be more where that came from as he has a 93.3 MPH exit velocity and 17.4 degree launch angle. He is swinging and missing a ton with a 40% whiff%, but he is also walking a ton with a 15% BB%. In OBP leagues especially, Murphy is a buy.

Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 31.5 – Blasted his 3rd homer yesterday. Stanton is still crushing the ball (95.1 MPH exit velo), but his 25.1 ft/sec sprint speed (27.1 in 2019) shows that he is declining athletically. If he can sustain this mini hot streak, it might not be a bad time to cash in and see what you can get for him.

Taylor Trammell SEA, OF, 23.6  – Trammell looks like the odd man out when Kelenic gets called up. He isn’t hitting the ball hard with an 82.4 MPH exit velocity and is striking out a ton (42.6% K%). His 27.4 ft/sec sprint isn’t bad, but it’s not great either.

Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – There was talk he didn’t come into the 2020 season in shape, which is why his speed dropped off and he had a down year, but in 2021 his speed has dropped even more to a 25.2 ft/sec sprint speed (26.5 in 2020), and his whiff% remains high at 31.5%. He’s still demolishing the ball with a 94.2 MPH exit velocity, but the indicators we wanted to see improve haven’t at this point.

Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 24.11 – Got the start and continued his domination with 3 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB. His fastball/slider combo has been lights out with a .220 xwOBA and 34% whiff% on the fastball, and a ridiculous .057 xwOBA with a 56.3% K% on the slider. This is a growth stock I’m buying even as the price continues to rise.

Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Whiff% remains at career high levels at 32.8%, making it hard to buy into a bounce back in that area. The launch angle gains he made in 2019 also do not look to be sticking as it dropped to 7.1 degrees in 2020 and 5.2 degrees this year. Considering his .333 BA right now, I would see if I could get a haul for him when he returns from the IL.

Trevor Story COL, SS, 28.4 – Surface stats are down with a .674 OPS, but underlying stats look great with a career high 91.8 MPH exit velocity and 19% K%. He’s a buy for me if you are in win now mode.

Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 34.9 – Blackmon is another Rockie whose surface stats are down (.623 OPS), but underlying stats look much better with a career best 88.5 MPH exit velocity and 13.2% K%. His .350 xwOBA is right in line with career norms. He is a buy for a win now team.

Luis Robert CHW, OF, 23.8 – Whiff% down to 31.8% from 41.5% in 2020 which is huge to see. He’s also crushing the ball with a 91 MPH exit velocity. He won’t come cheap, but Robert is a major buy before his surface stats explode.

Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Not hitting the ball hard (85.3 MPH) and now has a below average 26.6 ft/sec sprint speed. Basically everything we wanted to see bounce back has gotten even worse. It is a concerning start, but you have to stay patient and hope he hits his stride at some point. Don’t sell for pennies on the dollar.

Carson Kelly ARI, C, 26.9 – Launched his 3rd homer of the season and his power surge is backed up by a 97.1 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. His .400 BA is not backed up by the underlying stats though with a career high 37.3% whiff% (26.8% in 2020).

Victor Robles WASH, OF, 23.10 – 1 for 2 with a walk. He is getting on base with a career high 12.2% BB%, but his 85.3 MPH exit velocity and career low 26.3 ft/sec sprint speed is not exactly screaming breakout season.

Akil Baddoo DET, OF, 22.7 – It hurts me to say it, but with a 85.8 MPH exit velocity, 46.3% whiff%, and 2.5% BB%, Baddoo is a sell high.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE TOP 30 FYPD RANKINGS, TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS, AND A DYNASTY RANKINGS UPDATE COMING AT THE END OF THE MONTH

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

With the minor league season delayed until early May, these Monday Morning write-ups will be MLB focused this month, but normally they will be a mix between MLB and MiLB with a heavy lean toward prospects. Other content I’m planning this month for my Patreon members are FYPD rankings and updates to my Dynasty Baseball rankings (as well as these Dynasty Rundowns every day of the week). Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON OF WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Gio Urshela NYY, 3B, 29.6 – Cuomo might have snuck some extra Juice into Urshela’s Covid shot as he came back a new man, crushing a 453 foot, 108.1 MPH homer off Michael Wacha for his first of the year. He went 4 for 5 on the day and now has a 93.5 MPH exit velocity on the season.

Brent Honeywell TB, RHP, 26.0 – It’s been a long road with 4 elbow surgeries, but Honeywell persevered and made his MLB debut yesterday, going 2 perfect innings with 2 K’s. He threw a 4 pitch mix (4-seamer, change, cutter, screwball) with his 4-seamer averaging 94.1 MPH. He certainly looked to still have that advanced art of pitching down pat. He’s as high risk as they come, but that first outing makes it easy to buy back in.

Albert Abreu NYY, Setup, 25.7 – Abreu’s dynasty value fell off when it became clear he would be a reliever, but his MLB debut shows he has a chance to be a damn good one with a 98.3 MPH fastball and a swing and miss slider. He pitched a perfect inning with 2 K’s, and while he could get sent back down when the Yanks need a 5th starter, he is an interesting name to watch in relatively deep holds leagues.

Alex Verdugo BOS, OF, 24.11 – I was just recommending Verdugo to my Patreon members as a buy low/buy at a reasonable price early in the season, and that tiny window probably closed with a 400 foot shot for his first homer of the season. He’s raised his launch angle 9.2 degrees to 16.4 degrees which was the final piece to the breakout puzzle.

Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 26.1 – Snuck one over the fence going the opposite way for his 2nd dinger of the year. He’s backing up his 2020 breakout in the early going with a .314/.351/.514 triple slash, 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 100.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. Negative 2.7 degree launch angle and 41.8% whiff% aren’t great.

JD Martinez BOS, OF, 33.7 – I already saw the writing on the wall in my last Monday Morning Rundown that JD was back, and he has only solidified that stance since with 3 bombs yesterday. He has a 95.2 MPH exit velocity on the season.

Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – Boston feasted on Baltimore pitching and Devers got in the mix with 2 dingers. More important than the power (.625 SLG), his 26.5% whiff% looks better after dropping to 31.5% in 2020, and his 10.8% BB% is at a career best mark.

Trey Mancini BAL, 1B/OF, 29.0 – Drilled his 2nd homer of the year, showing the power is almost all the way back (88.4 MPH exit velocity), and while the 36.5% whiff% is high (26.9% in 2019), that should come down as he continues to shake the rust off.

Johan Oviedo STL, RHP, 23.1 – After Ponce de Leon got lit up for 7 earned in 1.1 IP, Oviedo came in and dominated in 4.2 shutout innings (2 hits, 4/2 K/BB) with a fastball that was up 1.6 MPH to 96.4 MPH and 3 secondaries that were racking up whiffs (slider, curve, change). Control is a still a major issue, but the stuff looked filthy.

Wilson Ramos DET, C, 33.8 – Cracked his 4th dinger and is just another example of waiting on catcher. I’ll pat myself on the back plenty in these write-ups, but I’m still kicking myself for letting the heat of the auction get to me and going way too high on James McCann in my 18 team dynasty ($15), while I could have waited and got Ramos for much less ($3). I didn’t stick to my own rules, and for that reason, I’m out (my bad, been watching too much Shark Tank lately).

Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 24.11 – Looks more and more impressive after every outing as Kopech had his 3rd great multi-inning appearance in a row, pitching 2.1 perfect innings with 3 K’s. His fastball sat 97.3 MPH and his slider and curve dominated with a 50% and 67% whiff%, respectively. I don’t know when he will break into the rotation, but his dynasty value is on the rise.

Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 25.3 – 4.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/3 K/BB. Still waiting on that improved control  …

Taylor Trammell SEA, OF, 23.6 – Rocked a 421 foot, 109.1 MPH homer off Matt Shoemaker for his 2nd of the season. He also struck out twice in 5 at-bats and has a 47.1% K%, which is concerning.

Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 27.3 – Crushed his 5th homer with a 428 foot, 110.8 MPH bomb off Chris Flexen. He went 3 for 4 with 0 K’s on the day. More impressive than the power, he has a career best 22.2% whiff% at the moment.

Trent Grisham SD, OF, 24.5 – Grisham’s been shot out of a cannon since returning from a hamstring injury with his 2nd homer yesterday and 3rd extra base hit in 3 games.

Zach McKinstry LAD, 2B/SS, 25.11 – McKinstry is the Dodgers new unheralded jack of all trades who forces their way into the lineup. He swatted his 2nd homer and is now slashing .321/.355/.679. He’s not exactly smoking the ball with an 89.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, and I still question his power ceiling, but you can’t question the results.

Javier Baez CHC, SS, 28.4 – I mentioned in a Patreon Rundown last week that Baez is a sell for me, and after drilling his 3rd homer of the year yesterday, that is still the case. His 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed is way down and his 52.1% whiff% is way up. If you have a surplus at SS, now would be the time to cash in on that.

Luke Weaver ARI, RHP, 27.7 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB. He has seemed to almost completely given up on a third pitch, and when your changeup is notching a 56% whiff%, I get it. His upside is capped with only two pitches, but it’s better than getting rocked with his cutter and curve, which is what has happened for most of his career.

Jose De Leon CIN, RHP, 28.8 – 4.1 IP, 8 hits, 6 ER, 9/3 K/BB. The strikeouts are for real as he notched a 41% whiff%, but so are the homer problems as he let up 2 more in this start. With Sonny Gray set to return next week, De Leon could be on the outside looking in for a rotation spot.

Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 28.0 – The new Hoskins is here whether you like it or not, and in OBP leagues especially, you probably don’t like it. He launched his 2nd homer of the year and has been crushing the ball with a 97.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity and 22.6 degree launch angle, but he has yet to walk a single time in 9 games.

Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 24.3 – Smacked his 1st homer of the year and is only hitting .139, but the underlying numbers look much better with a 91.3 MPH exit velocity, 20.5% whiff% and .299 xBA. If you can buy low, which you likely can’t, but if you can, I would do so.

Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – 3 for 4 with 0 K’s and his 4th dinger. A high strikeout rate was the only thing even remotely slowing Acuna down, and the early returns in 2021 has him improving in that area with a career best 13.3% whiff%. He’s still murdering the ball (96.1 MPH exit velocity), and is as fast as ever (29.3 ft/sec sprint speed), so the improved swing and miss is scary for the rest of the league.

Didi Gregorius PHI, SS, 31.3 – Ripped his 2nd homer off Drew Smyly with a 106.1 MPH exit velocity. His 83.5 MPH exit velocity on the season is concerning, but he hit 10 homers in 60 games last year with an 83.8 MPH exit velocity, and has put up below average exit velocities for most of his career. He just might be the exception that proves the rule … whatever that means, but it sounds good.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON OF WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

With the minor league season delayed until early May, these Monday Morning write-ups will be MLB focused this month, but normally they will be a mix between MLB and MiLB with a heavy lean toward prospects. Other content I’m planning this month for my Patreon members are FYPD rankings and updates to my Dynasty Baseball rankings (as well as these Dynasty Rundowns every day of the week). Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown:

Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 22.11 – My #3 ranked pre-season prospect (I have an updated Top 100 Prospects Rankings on my Patreon), Anderson did what he does in his first outing, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 1 earned, and a 7/2 K/BB. His much maligned breaking ball put up a 50% whiff% and his celebrated changeup matched that 50% mark. He also ripped a 92.8 MPH double and dove head first into 2B. There is a certain present moment nostalgia with pitchers hitting, and I think we will look back at this time fondly, but add the NL DH already.

Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 26.9 – Now this is what Abner Doubleday had in mind when he “invented baseball” (he didn’t invent baseball), and wanted pitchers to also hit, as Ohtani crushed a 115.2 MPH dinger and also threw fire with a fastball that reached 101.1 MPH. His overall pitching line still wasn’t great (4.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 7/5 K/BB), but let’s not nitpick and just enjoy the greatness.

Zach Eflin PHI, LHP, 27.0 – Went against a tough Braves lineup and he dominated by going 7 IP with 4 hits, 1 earned, and an 8/1 K/BB. He continued the increased usage of his sinker which he found success with in 2020, and his 35% overall whiff% was better than his 2020 mark of 24%. On the downside, his velocity was down on all of his pitches (down 1.3 MPH to 92.4 MPH on the sinker), but that is merely something to watch so early in the season.

Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 24.4 – Showed off his new pitch mix (he morphed his changeup into a splitter), but some things never change with him as he still relied heavily on his 4 seamer (60% usage vs. 58.9% in 2020). It resulted in a decent outing (5.1 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 4/2 K/BB), and his value holds serve, but it would have been nice for him to come out with a statement game.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 22.0 – You want launch angle? You got launch angle as Vlad launched a 23 degree, 106.9 MPH opposite field bomb off Domingo German. His season launch angle is now sitting at 16.1 degrees. He’s about to torture everyone who sold low on him for the next decade.

Julian Merryweather TOR, Closer, 29.6 – Sure looks like Merryweather is the man to own in Toronto as he picked up his 2nd save of the season. He fired his fastball at 98.9 MPH yesterday which is up 2.2 MPH from 2020.

Nomar Mazara DET, OF, 25.11 – Rocketed a 391 foot, 105.5 MPH homer off Aaron Civale. He’s now 4 for 11 with a 3/0 K/BB on the season. The Nomar Mazara story has not been completely written quite yet, but I’m still hesitant to buy in.

Akil Baddoo DET, OF, 22.7 – The feel good story of spring kept it going in his MLB debut with an impressive opposite field shot off Civale. He also struck out once in 3 at-bats, which will be the number to watch.

Jeff Hoffman CIN, RHP, 28.3 – Nothing like that getting out of Coors Certified Pre-Owned new car smell, as Hoffman made some adjustments to his mechanics this off-season and they were working for him in his season debut by going 5 IP with 3 hits, 1 earned and a 6/0 K/BB. His fastball was down 1.5 MPH to 92.9 MPH, so I’m not exactly jumping in head first, but he isn’t a bad deep league flier.

Nate Lowe TEX, 1B, 25.9 – All the spring tea leaves pointed to Ronald Guzman winning the 1B job, but Texas rope a doped us and stuck with Lowe. It’s working out like gangbusters so far with him absolutely crushing a 465 foot, 113.9 MPH homer that landed in the 2nd deck of the CF waterfall. He’s now 5 for 14 with a 5/0 K/BB.

Brady Singer KC, RHP, 24.9 – Got roughed up in 3.1 IP with 5 hits, 5 earned and a 5/3 K/BB. Silver lining is that his velocity was up 1.5 MPH on the sinker and 2.3 MPH on the slider.

JD Martinez BOS, OF, 33.7 – Early season returns lean towards 2020 being a down year rather than the start of a decline with Martinez crushing a 429 foot homer. He is now 6 for 12 with a 3/0 K/BB.

Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 26.6 – Mullins is representing the entire Baltimore Orioles lineup here as they dropped 11 runs on Boston. Mullins went 5 for 5 with 3 doubles and all of his hits were hit hard, ranging from 94.9 MPH to 100.6 MPH. Mancini, Santander and Ruiz all had multi hit games as well.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 24.8 – Went into Coors and killed it in 7 IP with 6 hits, 1 earned and a 6/1 K/BB. He put up a 30% whiff% which is nice to see (26% in 2020). Threw his changeup 2.1 MPH faster and it worked wonders as it notched a 47% whiff%. He still doesn’t seem to get the love he deserves.

Will Smith LAD, C, 26.0 – The small sample breakout in 2020 is carrying over to 2021 as he went deep yesterday on a 438 foot blast. He’s now 4 for 7 with a 1/1 K/BB, and the only thing holding him back is how smart the Dodgers are to keep him fresh for October.

Ian Happ CHC, OF, 26.8 – Took Mitch Keller deep to dead center on a 108.2 MPH, 428 foot bomb for his first hit of the season in 6 at-bats. He also walked twice giving him a .444 OBP on the season.

Kris Bryant CHC, 3B, 29.3 – Early signs look positive for a bounce back with Bryant hitting the ball hard. He ripped a 107.5 MPH single and a 99.9 MPH double in 3 at-bats yesterday, and now has a 96.1 MPH average exit velocity on the year.

Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 24.8 – Is not inspiring confidence for a bounce back with another tough day (0 for 4 with 2 K’s). He is now 0 for 11 with a 6/0 K/BB

Brandon Bielak HOU, RHP, 25.0 – Pitched 4.2 perfect innings with 4 K’s in relief of Urquidy on the back of his 93.4 MPH fastball that he threw 66% of the time. His changeup is an above average pitch (.252 xwOBA in 2020), so if he can make improvements to his slider he has a chance to be an impact starter. He’s just a flier in deeper leagues right now, but keep an eye out.

Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 23.4 – Cracked his first homer of the season with a 407 foot shot off Sean Manaea. It’s been a slow start otherwise as he is 3 for 17, but he hasn’t been striking out with only 2 K’s.

Taylor Widener ARI, RHP, 26.5 – Results were solid (6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/3 K/BB), but the fastball sat only 92.8 MPH and he threw it 72% of the time. The slider and changeup were dominant when he went to them, but I would still tread lightly here.

Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 25.3 – 4 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 3/3 K/BB. The fastball problems don’t seem to be fixed as his 4-seamer got rocked with a .382 xwOBA. He also only threw two pitches (fastball, changeup).

Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 25.3 – The Cease breakout will also have to wait as he was back to his wild ways with a 3/3 K/BB in 4.1 IP (5 hits with 3 ER). The stuff is still nasty, so if you bought in hoping for things to click, you gotta just hold tight.

Geraldo Perdomo ARI, SS, 20.5 – Called up to the majors but it is only supposed to be for a week or two. He made a sweet diving play in the field, and it is always nice to see baseball’s most talented young players on the biggest stage even if they are not 100% ready. Baseball needs more of that.

 Jared Walsh LAA, 1B, 27.8 – In a surprise to no one except his manager I guess, Walsh is a breakout waiting to happen if he gets the playing time as he launched a pair of dingers last night at 103.1 MPH and 103.3 MPH. Just play the man.

Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – Demolished a 465 foot, 112.6 MPH homer off Chris Devenski for his first of the year. My hard hitting analysis: he is really fucking good. If I am going to nitpick, he does have a 31.6% K% in 4 games, and while it is obviously a very small sample, it is the one area of his game with risk.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)