This list doubles as a Bold Predictions write-up as I go on a 3 day fast, head off into the woods and climb a mountain to envision what the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings will look like. Ages are as of April 2023.

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1) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – Veen will ascend to universal elite prospect status as he steamrolls through High-A before closing out the year holding his own in Double-A. He showed some hit tool concerns in 2021, but it was his very first year of pro ball, thrown right into the fire in full season ball. He will improve the hit tool, the power will take a step forward, and the speed will still be there too. Tack on Coors Field, which juices up batting average first and foremost, and this is a game changing fantasy prospect.

2) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe won’t put up quite the eye popping numbers in the upper levels of the minors as he did the lower levels of the minors, particularly his stolen base totals, but he will be knocking on the door of the bigs with above average to plus all category production. There won’t be many, or any, true holes in his profile and will be 1B to Veen’s 1A.

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – My top underrated target from the 2019 draft class will finally have his full breakout in all its glory. He’ll quickly destroy High-A, before spending the majority of his time at Double-A, showing off more power than expected, to go along with a plus hit/speed combo.

4) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.2 – Matos will show an improved plate approach at High-A, which is the final step to put his hype into the stratosphere. The strikeout rate will rise a bit alongside the walk rates, but he’ll go 20/20 and will be a next level breakout.

5) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 22.6 – The knee injury will slow Abrams’ development and ETA down just enough to stay under the rookie threshold for 2023. The power explosion won’t come this year, but there will be an uptick in power, and the hit tool/speed combo will shine at Triple-A. He’ll get a taste of the majors in the 2nd half, where the exit velocity data won’t really pop, so some people may go off him, but I’ll hold strong.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING:
-OBP TOP 600 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-POINTS/6+ CATS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 600 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (5×5 AVG-includes Top 500 Prospects Rankings and Top 100 FYPD Rankings-these will be the only rankings released for free on my site in March)
-ALL-IN-ONE SPREADSHEET WITH ALL THE RANKINGS
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES
-2023 TOP 10 FYPD RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

These Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are for leagues where speed is devalued and the value of good real life hitters who get on base and hit for power are juiced up. It still isn’t a perfect ranking (is there such thing as a perfect dynasty ranking?), but I believe it is helpful in a universal sense for certain points leagues and category leagues that add in a 6th or 7th hitting category like OPS or OBP (I have specific 5×5 OBP Rankings on my Patreon too). Here are the Points/6+Cats/OPS “Universal” Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING:
-OBP TOP 600 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (5×5 AVG-includes Top 500 Prospects Rankings and Top 100 FYPD Rankings-these will be the only rankings released for free on my site in March)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES

Tier 1

1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year, and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I’m picking him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

2) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

3) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

4) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

5) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

Tier 2

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

7) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

8) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also had a 180 wRC+ in 16 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

9) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

10) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

11) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

12) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

13) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix.  2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

14) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

15) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

16) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

17) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

18) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but I’ve grown more concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

19) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

20) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2

21) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Olson made tremendous improvement to his K%, brining it all the way down to 16.8% (31.4% in 2020), and he basically maintained it for the entire season. Hard not to think that won’t regress at least a little in 2022, but power and patience is what you are really buying here anyway. Truly keeping up that hit tool improvement will be the cherry on top. 2022 Projection: 93/38/106/.262/.363/.541/2

Tier 3

22) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball.  2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

23) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 29.11 – Judge once against led all of baseball with a 95.8 MPH exit velocity. It’s only a matter of staying healthy for Judge as he played in 148 games this season and ripped 39 homers with 148 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 93/40/97/.268/.364/.550/5

24) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP

26) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 31.7 – Cole become the face of the spider tack scandal, and it was warranted as his numbers definitely took a hit, putting up a 2.68 ERA pre break and a 4.14 ERA post break. His spin rates did a recover a bit by the end of the season, but not to pre crackdown levels. There is good news for 2022 though, as it was recently announced that the Arizona Fall League has been experimenting with a pre tacked ball, which seems like a good sign MLB will implement them for the 2022 season. I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022. 2022 Projection: 15/3.10/1.03/261 in 195 IP

27) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 29.2 – Burnes may have overshadowed the year Woodruff just had, because he was dominant with a pitching line of 2.56/0.97/211/43 in 179.1 IP. It was the most innings he’s thrown in his career, and he did seem a tire as the season went on as his sinker velocity slowly declined about 1 MPH from start to finish. He had a 2.06 ERA pre break and a 3.41 ERA post break. It does make me wonder, with all these pitchers having huge jumps in innings pitched after the shortened 2020 season, if there will be some type of hangover effect in 2022. 2022 Projection: 14/3.33/1.06/218 in 185 IP

28) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Buehler had a spectacular season with a pitching line of 2.47/0.97/212/52 in 207 IP, but there were some red flags. He lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball with a career worst 95.3 MPH mark and he also put up a career worst 26% K%. I’m not downgrading him much because of it, but it is something in the back of my mind. 2022 Projection: 15/3.39/1.02/202 in 190 IP

29) Freddie Freeman FRA, 1B, 32.6 – Freeman ain’t young but his level of dominance year in and year out deserves at least this ranking. His .411 xwOBA ranked 7th in the league and he has been at the top of those leaderboards since Statcast came on the scene in 2015. 2022 Projection: 103/32/106/.303/.395/.522/6

30) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post break (32.2% in 82 games post-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Tier 4

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

These rankings are made for 5×5 OBP leagues. My “Universal” Rankings will be out on the Patreon this week too where good real life hitters get boosted (power and walks), speed is heavily devalued, and pitchers don’t get juiced up. Here is the OBP Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING EARLY ACCESS TO THE TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (INCLUDES TOP 500 PROSPECTS RANKINGS AND TOP 100 FYPD RANKINGS), EXLUSIVE ACCESS TO POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES, “UNIVERSAL” DYNASTY RANKINGS, 2023 FYPD RANKINGS, ETC …

Tier 1

1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year (I will be updating those “Universal Rankings” this off-season too), and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I’m picking him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

2) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

Tier 2

6) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

7) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

8) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

9) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

10) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

11) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix.  2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

Shadow11) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

12) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

13) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also had a 180 wRC+ in 16 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

16) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – A bone spur in Betts’ right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

17) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

18) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

Tier 3

19) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball.  2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

22) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP

23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 31.7 – Cole become the face of the spider tack scandal, and it was warranted as his numbers definitely took a hit, putting up a 2.68 ERA pre break and a 4.14 ERA post break. His spin rates did a recover a bit by the end of the season, but not to pre crackdown levels. There is good news for 2022 though, as it was recently announced that the Arizona Fall League has been experimenting with a pre tacked ball, which seems like a good sign MLB will implement them for the 2022 season. I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022. 2022 Projection: 15/3.10/1.03/261 in 195 IP

24) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2

25) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Olson made tremendous improvement to his K%, brining it all the way down to 16.8% (31.4% in 2020), and he basically maintained it for the entire season. Hard not to think that won’t regress at least a little in 2022, but power and patience is what you are really buying here anyway. Truly keeping up that hit tool improvement will be the cherry on top. 2022 Projection: 93/38/106/.262/.363/.541/2

26) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 29.2 – Burnes may have overshadowed the year Woodruff just had, because he was dominant with a pitching line of 2.56/0.97/211/43 in 179.1 IP. It was the most innings he’s thrown in his career, and he did seem a tire as the season went on as his sinker velocity slowly declined about 1 MPH from start to finish. He had a 2.06 ERA pre break and a 3.41 ERA post break. It does make me wonder, with all these pitchers having huge jumps in innings pitched after the shortened 2020 season, if there will be some type of hangover effect in 2022. 2022 Projection: 14/3.33/1.06/218 in 185 IP

27) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Buehler had a spectacular season with a pitching line of 2.47/0.97/212/52 in 207 IP, but there were some red flags. He lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball with a career worst 95.3 MPH mark and he also put up a career worst 26% K%. I’m not downgrading him much because of it, but it is something in the back of my mind. 2022 Projection: 15/3.39/1.02/202 in 190 IP

28) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 27.6 – Welcome to the 30/30 club, Cedric Mullins. He became only the 43rd player to go 30/30, and only the 9th lefty ever. Speaking of being a lefty, Mullins made the ultimate adjustment this season and dropped his righthanded swing. It worked liked gangbusters as he had by far his best season vs. righties (.452 OPS vs. righties in 2018/.243 in 2019/.502 in 202/.788 in 2021). Now the question is, can he do it again? He did outperform his underlying numbers a bit with a .372 wOBA vs. a .343 xwOBA. His 92.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity also doesn’t leave much room for error. I think the more reasonable expectation for 2022 is a 20/20 type year rather than 30/30. 2022 Projection: 88/25/68/.277/.340/.460/25

29) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 29.11 – Judge once against led all of baseball with a 95.8 MPH exit velocity. It’s only a matter of staying healthy for Judge as he played in 148 games this season and ripped 39 homers with 148 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 93/40/97/.268/.364/.550/5

30) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – Baseball players are human beings. When you’ve spent your entire career, from the time you were 17 years old, with one organization, it is going to take time to adjust to a new city, new fans, new teammates, coaches, expectations etc … And that goes doubly when that new city is New York. And even if you don’t buy into all that mumbo jumbo, his underlying numbers in 2021 were almost exactly in line with career norms. He just got a bit unlucky this year. One thing slightly outside of his career norms was that he swung and missed at a career worst rate (23.2% whiff%), but he offset that with a career best 11.1% BB%. Lindor is an easy buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/29/85/.267/.344/.482/17

31) Trevor Story FRA, SS, 29.4 – Story had a slow start to the season but he was back to raking by the end of it, slashing .269/.358/.552 with 12 homers, 3 steals, and a 52/22 K/BB in his final 55 games. Nothing in his underlying numbers are setting off alarm bells, but the big question is how much he should be downgraded leaving Coors. It seems that Coors juices up batting average first and foremost, so I wouldn’t expect a huge drop in homers and steals, but the hits and BA are coming down. His down 2021 might have inadvertently shown us who he will be over the next few seasons. 2022 Projection: 82/28/91/.250/.333/.483/18

32) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post break (32.2% in 82 games post-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

Tier 4

33) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13

34) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.8 – After a disastrous start to his MLB debut (.360 OPS after his first 30 games), Kelenic slowly got better as the season went along and finished strong in September, slashing .248/.331/.524 with 7 homers, 3 steals, and a 29/12 K/BB in 29 games. He doesn’t have major swing and miss issues with a 26.9% whiff%, and while he struggled against breaking and offspeed pitches, he got much better vs. them as the season progressed. Kelenic was a buy low for me the second he started struggling in the majors, and while his strong finish probably raised the price, there is a still a buying opportunity here. 2022 Projection:76/24/79/.252/.326/.449/10 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.268/.343/.481/14

35) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 25.10 – A minor shoulder strain and subsequent drop off in production in August and September is the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding season. Even after the shoulder strain his stuff was still excellent and his K/BB numbers were still great, so I wouldn’t be worried. Peralta throws 4 legitimately plus pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) which led to a 33.6% K% and 2.81 ERA in 144.1 IP. His control wasn’t bad (9.7% BB%), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps improving in that area. Peralta has league winning upside. 2022 Projection: 11/3.22/1.09/235 in 170 IP

36) Freddie Freeman FRA, 1B, 32.6 – Freeman ain’t young but his level of dominance year in and year out deserves at least this ranking. His .411 xwOBA ranked 7th in the league and he has been at the top of those leaderboards since Statcast came on the scene in 2015. 2022 Projection: 103/32/106/.303/.395/.522/6

37) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

38) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 24.5 – Rogers added 0.9 MPH to the fastball (94.5 MPH) and improved his control, leading to the pitch becoming one of the 10 most valuable 4 seamers in the game. The changeup placed 24th best. The slider wasn’t as good, but it was a good enough 3rd pitch with a 40.8% whiff% to put Rogers into elite territory. He’s an ace  2022 Projection: 10/3.31/1.18/196 in 165 IP

39) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 29.6 – Hernandez drastically improved his K% from 30.4% in 2020 to 24.9% in 2021, and he continued to mash the ball en route to another beastly season, slashing .296/.346/.524 with 32 homers and 12 steals in 143 games. The improved contact numbers give faith he will continue to get to all of his power and speed. 2022 Projection: 88/34/104/.267/.330/.515/11

40) Marcus Semien TEX, SS/2B 31.6 – Saying Semien “bounced back” from a down 2020 would be an understatement. He went insane in 2021 with 45 homer and 15 steals. He notched a career high 89.7 MPH EV, 109.5 MPH Max EV, and 20.3 degree launch angle. The underlying numbers do provide some caution as his .368 wOBA was much better than his .329 xwOBA, but Semien is a fantasy stud. Going from Toronto to Texas is a ballpark and lineup downgrade, but he’s put up big numbers in Oakland too which is also a pitcher’s park, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much based on the move. 2022 Projection: 92/30/86/.252/.330/.491/13

41) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 28.10 – Nola finished with an unsightly 4.63 ERA, but everything in his underlying numbers say he’s the same ace he’s always been. He had a sparkling 223/39 K/BB in 180.2 IP and his xERA was 3.39 (3.37 xFIP). I doubt anyone will be willing to sell low on him, but if you can even get a small discount it is worth pouncing on. 2022 Projection: 14/3.46/1.15/225 in 190 IP

42) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 26.10 – Bieber returned from a strained shoulder at the end of the year and made two 3 inning starts where his velocity was down. It is very possible he was just taking it easy, so I don’t want to panic, but it would have been nice to see his velocity return. In the 96.2 innings he did pitch, he wasn’t able to maintain anything close to his insane 2020, but he was still putting up elite numbers with a 3.17 ERA and 33.1% K%. I would wait until we see him back to 100% during Spring Training before clearing out the farm for him. He is a hold. 2022 Projection: 12/3.35/1.10/226 in 170 IP

43) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 27.9 – Giolito had a rough April with a 5.68 ERA but he pitched like his normal dominant self after that. His K% did drop to a 3 year low to 28% (33.7% in 2020), but his BB% dropped with it to 7.1% (9.7% in 2020). 2022 Projection: 13/3.56/1.13/221 in 183 IP

44) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 29.6 – After a dominant first half (.930 OPS pre break), Bogaerts fell off hard in the 2nd half (.761 OPS post break). He ended up having his usual rock steady season with a 130 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 96/26/87/.292/.366/.498/8

45) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 27.11 – A fractured hand after getting hit by a pitch limited Seager to 95 games. He couldn’t fully maintain his 2020 power breakout, but he still showed the power improvements were real with a career high 115.3 Max EV and a 49.3% HardHit% which was the 2nd best mark of his career (55.9% in 2020). The overall offensive numbers were just as dominant as 2020 with a 147 wRC+ (150 wRC+ in 2020). His ascent as an elite hitter in 2020 was not a mirage. 2022 Projection: 91/26/92/.301/.380/.518/1

46) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.0 – Bregman underwent wrist surgery on Nov. 8th. The wrist issue can maybe explain the down power season, but his power was down in 2020 as well and he was never a huge exit velocity guy to begin with. He also completely stopped running over the past two seasons, with his sprint speed dropping to a career low 25.6 ft/sec which was almost surely due to a quad injury that kept him out for two months. On the plus side, his plate approach is elite (13.3%/11% K%/BB%), and he gets the ball in the air (15.9 degree launch angle). It’s hard to expect the stolen bases to come back, but a power resurgence is at least still in the cards. 2022 Projection: 92/26/89/.277/.370/.482/5

47) Jesse Winker CIN, OF, 28.7 – An intercoastal strain essentially ended Winker’s season in mid August after 110 games. He was elite in those 110 games though with 24 homers, a 15.5%/10.9% K%/BB% and a .388 xwOBA (Top 7% of the league). It proves his 2020 breakout was 100% real. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but Winker is an elite bat that could probably be had for a non elite price. 2022 Projection: 94/27/86/.282/.375/.507/1

48) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.7 – Tork is a 6’1”, 220 pound bull with a swing geared towards launching bombs. And that is all he’s done in his baseball career, crushing 25 homers in 55 games as a freshman in the Pac 12, ripping 23 homers as a sophomore, and now smashing 30 bombs in his pro debut over 121 games split pretty evenly across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He does all this with an advanced plate approach (13% BB% at Triple-A) and without any major strikeout worries (20.3% K% at Triple-A). 2022 Projection: 72/27/74/.252/.337/.485/3 Prime Projection: 96/35/105/.275/.372/.533/3

49) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 31.10 – Wheeler had a career year with a pitching line of 2.78/1.01/247/46 in 213.1 IP. His 29.1% K% was higher than his 26.5% whiff%, so I would expect some regression in that area, but both marks were easily career bests, so there was definitely real improvement. He led the league in exit velocity against at 84.6 MPH. 2022 Projection: 14/3.21/1.09/220 in 200 IP

50) George Springer TOR, OF, 32.6 – Missed most the first half with an oblique and quad injury, playing in only 20 games with a .726 OPS pre-break. He exploded post break, slashing .286/.366/.599 with 17 homers, 3 steals, and a 56/25 K/BB in 58 games. He posted a career best 15.4% barrel% and 116.4 Max EV. His sprint speed was as fast ever, showing there weren’t any lingering effects from the injuries. 2022 Projection: 103/37/88/.263/.350/.545/6

51) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 26.7 – Alcantara already possessed one of the best sinkers in the game, but he took it up a notch this year, adding 1.4 MPH to the pitch (97.6 MPH) and finished with the 3rd most valuable sinker on the year. He improved both his control and swing and miss ability (22.7%/8.7% K%/BB% in 2020 vs. 24%/6% in 2021). You also shouldn’t underestimate innings pitched, as he threw 205.2 IP this year and 197.1 IP in 2019. He might not have elite bat missing ability, but he keeps the ball on the ground (4.5 degree launch angle) and with his filthy stuff there can definitely be further improvement coming.  2022 Projection: 12/3.39/1.14/193 in 195 IP

52) Will Smith LAD, C, 27.0 – Smith went ballistic post all star break, smashing 15 homers with a .936 OPS in 56 games. He was good pre break too (.800 OPS in 74 games). He has an advanced plate approach (20.2%/11/6% K%/BB%) with an above average exit velocity (90.1 MPH) and a high launch angle (19.4 degrees). 2022 Projection: 75/26/81/.267/.370/.500/2

53) Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17

54) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 28.9 – Don’t worry about Anderson’s lack of plate approach, he’s been barely walking and putting up strong numbers since 2014. It does look like he may trade some speed for more power as he enters his late 20’s as he put up a career best 89.6 MPH EV and career worst 28 ft/sec sprint speed. 2022 Projection: 92/22/75/.293/.328/.470/17

55) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 28.3 – With a talent like this, give me all the injury risk. Buxton had a career best 92.5 MPH exit velocity with a max EV that was in the top 4% of the league (115.6 MPH). His 30 ft/s sprint speed is in the top 1% of the league. He hit 19 homers with 9 steals and a 1.005 OPS in 61 games this year. He can legitimately finish as the top fantasy player in baseball, and while the injury risk is very real, I think people are discounting him far too much for it. 2022 Projection: 89/28/81/.271/.326/.518/19

56) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – Seeds of a breakout were already starting to show in 2020 beneath his mediocre surface stats, and that breakout blossomed hardcore in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers and a 25.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. He keeps improving his hit tool with a career best 28.3% whiff% and he made major strides against offspeed pitches with a .369 xwOBA against them (.223 in 2020). He’s not a real .300 hitter, but there is real juice in his bat. 2022 Projection: 85/31/98/.275/.340/.511/0

57) Starling Marte NYM, OF, 33.6 – It’s hard for dynasty owners to buy into a player going into his mid 30’s, and that goes doubly for speed first players, but the year Marte just had is going to put that age aversion to the test. He tied his career high with 47 steals and put up a career best by far 8.2% BB%. He has slowed down a bit these past few seasons, but a 28.4 ft/s sprint speed is still plenty fast. If you have the cojones to do it, now could be the ideal time to sell, but I own him in a 12 teamer at $35 and I don’t think I have the nerve to do it. I’m rolling with him for 2022. 2022 Projection: 87/15/71/.286/.352/.450/33

58) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 28.6 – Playing in only 90 games due to two hamstring injuries (one to each hamstring) has camouflaged how good of a season Marte had. He’s never hit the ball harder with an excellent 91.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it led to a near elite .370 xwOBA. The hamstring injuries slowed him down, putting up a career worst 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed, but that should bounce back with full health. This year proved that Marte is closer to being the guy who had a great 2019, rather than the player who had a down 2020. You can go after him with confidence this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/24/90/.298/.359/.507/7

59) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 25.5 – A torn pectoral tendon limited Eloy to 55 games, and he was pretty mediocre in those games with a .740 OPS and 101 wRC+, but none of his underlying numbers were too far off from career norms to cause major concern. There is still room for improvement with his launch angle (8.4 degrees) and BB% (6.9%), but he’s going to mash even if those numbers don’t get significantly better. 2022 Projection: 84/32/103/.267/.327/.510/0

60) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 30.1 – Great American Ballpark is an insanely great ballpark for homers, and Castellanos immediately started ripping dingers when he got there with 14 homers in 60 games in 2020 and 34 homers in 138 games in 2021. His underlying numbers have been near elite for 6 years now, he just needed the right ballpark to unleash the beast. 2022 Projection: 92/33/97/.281/.340/.521/2

61) Joey Gallo NYY, OF, 28.4 – Gallo made gains to his K% with Texas with a career best 32.2% K%, but it spiked back up to 38.6% after his trade to the Yankees. He had a .160 BA in his last 58 games of the season. He is the ultimate three true outcome slugger. 2022 Projection: 87/39/85/.203/.337/.490/5

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS AND MUCH MORE, INCLUDING EARLY ACCESS TO THE TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (INCLUDES TOP 500 PROSPECTS RANKINGS AND TOP 100 FYPD RANKINGS), EXLUSIVE ACCESS TO POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES, “UNIVERSAL” DYNASTY RANKINGS, 2023 FYPD RANKINGS, ETC …

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Now that the NL DH looks all but official, I’ve updated my Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings to account for the extra at-bats. A bunch of good hitting catchers will fall into some extra at-bats too, but this write-up is about players I’m much more comfortable targeting with 15 full time jobs opening up. The rankings are on my Patreon and will be released for free at some point in March. Speaking of March, I’m betting on the owners and players coming to an agreement in early March, just in the nick of time to basically have a full, normal season of baseball. Here is the Long and Short Term Gainers with the NL DH:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR EARLY ACCESS TO THE TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (INCLUDES TOP 500 PROSPECTS RANKINGS AND TOP 100 FYPD RANKINGS) AND EXLUSIVE ACCESS TO POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES, OBP RANKINGS, “UNIVERSAL” DYNASTY RANKINGS AND MUCH MORE

Clint Frazier CHC, OF, 27.7 – Frazier being a poor defensive corner outfielder has always been the biggest knock on his game. Hitting was never an issue until concussion like symptoms tanked his 2021 season. If he hits well, which is a good bet assuming full health, he’ll have a job now, which you couldn’t necessarily say without the DH. He moves up from #546 to #362 on the Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings.

Seth Beer ARI, 1B, 25.8/Christian Walker ARI, 1B, 31.0 – Beer was basically the poster child for “if the NL had a DH.” He is a poor defensive first baseman who rakes. The surgically repaired shoulder is still a concern, but Arizona’s long term DH job is his to lose. It also creates far more job security for Christian Walker. He becomes a more interesting CI option or deep league 1B option.

Mike Moustakas CIN, 3B, 33.6/Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 26.8 – Moose simply didn’t have anywhere to play, and now he has the inside track for the DH job. I don’t think he is a slam dunk target though with his strikeout rate on the decline for a little while now, and he was out with planter fasciitis for much of last year. He’s a negative on the base paths too. There is a pretty solid chance he is in a real decline. As much as this does obviously help Moose, I think this sneakily helps Nick Senzel just as much, if not more. He’s too talented for Cincy not to want to give at bats to, and the DH gives them that opportunity. I’m getting suckered back in on Senzel.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 24.4/Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – It’s make or break time for Gavin Lux. He’ll get his shot now. Long term this will be very helpful for Busch. He was in no man’s land position wise, but a DH will get his bat in the lineup far more often down the line.

Rowdy Tellez MIL, 1B, 27.0/Tyrone Taylor MIL, OF, 28.2/Keston Hiura MIL, 1B, 25.8 – I was already targeting Tellez, but this makes me love him even more. I included Hiura, but path to playing time was never really his problem, performance was. Taylor could be the big winner here when it is all said and done. Here is what I wrote about him in my Top 1,000, “Taylor would be a really fun fantasy player if he had a full time job, but it doesn’t seem like Milwaukee is interested in giving him one. His exit velocity doesn’t jump out (88.6 MPH EV), but he gets the ball in the air (16 degree launch angle) and is in a great ballpark for homers, so the power production will be there. He also has a good feel to hit (21.8% K%) and some speed (28.6 ft/sec sprint speed). He’s an interesting bench piece in daily leagues when he gets the start.” He’s still far from guaranteed to get full time at bats, but he will be a real sneaky late round pick for me now. He jumps from #779 to #491 on the Top 1,000 Rankings. 

Garrett Cooper MIA, 1B/OF, 31.3/ Lewin Diaz MIA, 1B, 24.4 – – There is still risk after surgery to repair a torn UCL ended Cooper’s 2021 season, but he now has the path to playing time to make me much more comfortable going after him. He’s been a damn good hitter for the last 3 years. He jumps from #696 to #563 on the Top 1,000 Rankings. Long term, Lewin Diaz gets the biggest bump. There is a high offensive bar you have to cross for 1B, so the DH will help get his bat in the lineup.

Jeff McNeil NYM, OF/2B, 30.0/Dominic Smith NYM, 1B/OF, 26.10/J.D. Davis NYM, 3B, 28.11 – As you can see, there is still a logjam here, but this obviously helps all three of these guys out a lot. There is also a chance Cano is completely washed, which would allow McNeil to play 2B full time, while Smith and Davis platoon at DH. Although neither Smith nor Davis really have platoon splits, so it could be a straight “let the best man win” situation.

Darin Ruf SFG, 1B/OF, 35.8 – I included Ruf in my Hitter Targets write-up, as he becomes one of my top targets for a win now team. Here’s what I wrote about him in my Top 1,000 Rankings, “A DH spot would do wonders for Ruf because he might be in the pole position to win that job for the Giants. He put up an eye popping 93.1 MPH exit velocity, 14.2% Barrel%, and 54.9% Hardhit%. It led to a 16 homers with a .904 OPS in 312 PA. He hit well in 2020 too (.887 OPS), so it is not like this came out of nowhere. He hits lefties better than righties, but he hits righties real well too, so he isn’t an automatic platoon guy.” He jumps from #695 to #401.

Elehuris Montero COL, 1B/OF, 23.7/Connor Joe COL, 1B/OF, 29.7/Raimel Tapia COL, OF, 28.2/Sam Hilliard COL, OF, 28.1 – Colorado has had a logjam in their outfield with fringy but talented outfielders for the last few years, and now there is opportunity for all of them to get at-bats. Unless of course Colorado signs some old vets, which if history is any indication, they will. Long term this might help Montero the most. I was already high on him, and this cements his ranking in my eyes. I feel much more comfortable going after him in prospect drafts. This helps Colton Welker too, but I would like to see his power breakout before really targeting him. Michael Toglia has another path to playing time, although he is a good defender at 1B, so his path to playing time was much easier to envision already.

Matt Vierling PHI, OF/1B, 25.6 – Philly will likely make additions once free agency opens back up, so I still think Vierling will have to fight for playing time, but the DH surely won’t hurt him. He hit the ball hard with speed and without any major strikeout issues in his MLB debut. Not a bad late round flier.

Michael Chavis PIT, 1B/2B, 26.8/Mason Martin PIT, 1B, 22.10 – Chavis is a poor defender, but he also hasn’t been all that hot with the bat, so while the DH will definitely help, he still has a lot to prove. Long term Martin gets the biggest boost.

Jurickson Profar SD, 1B/OF, 29.1/Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B/2B, 26.5 – San Diego will likely rotate guys in the DH spot, but Profar and Kim are the biggest beneficiaries in general. I can see them DH’ing Tatis more with his shoulder issue, leaving an opening for Kim at SS. I haven’t given up on Kim yet, and this gives him a real shot to prove himself.

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0/Paul DeJong STL, SS, 28.8/Edmundo Sosa STL, SS/2B, 26.1/Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.7 – Yepez is the big winner in the long run, and he could be the big winner in the short run too, so I’m not bumping up DeJong, Sosa, or Nootbar too much based on this. I will wait until Spring Training to see who pulls ahead for the job before making too many changes here, but all of them become more interesting.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

I made these rankings with a 16 team, 5×5 AVG league in mind. I will be doing different variations of these rankings throughout February. There is a spreadsheet version of the rankings on my Patreon too. There will be major updates and additions when free agency opens back up and starting jobs become clearer. Without further ado, here are the Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO GET TO FULL TOP 1,000 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS NOW!!! LINKS ARE INCLUDED TO THE TOP 500 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKINGS AND THE TOP 100 2022 FYPD RANKINGS (THE FULL LIST WILL BE RELEASED FOR FREE ON MY WEBSITE SOMETIME IN MARCH)

Tier 1

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year (I will be updating those “Universal Rankings” this off-season too), and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I might actually pick him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

Tier 2

6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix.  2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

14) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

15) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

16) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but I’ve grown more concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

18) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also had a 180 wRC+ in 16 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

Tier 3

19) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10

20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball.  2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

22) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 27.6 – Welcome to the 30/30 club, Cedric Mullins. He became only the 43rd player to go 30/30, and only the 9th lefty ever. Speaking of being a lefty, Mullins made the ultimate adjustment this season and dropped his righthanded swing. It worked liked gangbusters as he had by far his best season vs. righties (.452 OPS vs. righties in 2018/.243 in 2019/.502 in 202/.788 in 2021). Now the question is, can he do it again? He did outperform his underlying numbers a bit with a .372 wOBA vs. a .343 xwOBA. His 92.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity also doesn’t leave much room for error. I think the more reasonable expectation for 2022 is a 20/20 type year rather than 30/30. 2022 Projection: 88/25/68/.277/.340/.460/25

23) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – Baseball players are human beings. When you’ve spent your entire career, from the time you were 17 years old, with one organization, it is going to take time to adjust to a new city, new fans, new teammates, coaches, expectations etc … And that goes doubly when that new city is New York. And even if you don’t buy into all that mumbo jumbo, his underlying numbers in 2021 were almost exactly in line with career norms. He just got a bit unlucky this year. One thing slightly outside of his career norms was that he swung and missed at a career worst rate (23.2% whiff%), but he offset that with a career best 11.1% BB%. Lindor is an easy buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/29/85/.267/.344/.482/17

24) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 28.9 – Don’t worry about Anderson’s lack of plate approach, he’s been barely walking and putting up strong numbers since 2014. It does look like he may trade some speed for more power as he enters his late 20’s as he put up a career best 89.6 MPH EV and career worst 28 ft/sec sprint speed. 2022 Projection: 92/22/75/.293/.328/.470/17

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP

26) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 31.7 – Cole become the face of the spider tack scandal, and it was warranted as his numbers definitely took a hit, putting up a 2.68 ERA pre break and a 4.14 ERA post break. His spin rates did a recover a bit by the end of the season, but not to pre crackdown levels. There is good news for 2022 though, as it was recently announced that the Arizona Fall League has been experimenting with a pre tacked ball, which seems like a good sign MLB will implement them for the 2022 season. I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022. 2022 Projection: 15/3.10/1.03/261 in 195 IP

27) Trevor Story FRA, SS, 29.4 – Story had a slow start to the season but he was back to raking by the end of it, slashing .269/.358/.552 with 12 homers, 3 steals, and a 52/22 K/BB in his final 55 games. Nothing in his underlying numbers are setting off alarm bells, but the big question is how much he should be downgraded leaving Coors. It seems that Coors juices up batting average first and foremost, so I wouldn’t expect a huge drop in homers and steals, but the hits and BA are coming down. His down 2021 might have inadvertently shown us who he will be over the next few seasons. 2022 Projection: 82/28/91/.250/.333/.483/18

28) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2

29) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Olson made tremendous improvement to his K%, brining it all the way down to 16.8% (31.4% in 2020), and he basically maintained it for the entire season. Hard not to think that won’t regress at least a little in 2022, but power and patience is what you are really buying here anyway. Truly keeping up that hit tool improvement will be the cherry on top. 2022 Projection: 93/38/106/.262/.363/.541/2

30) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 29.2 – Burnes may have overshadowed the year Woodruff just had, because he was dominant with a pitching line of 2.56/0.97/211/43 in 179.1 IP. It was the most innings he’s thrown in his career, and he did seem a tire as the season went on as his sinker velocity slowly declined about 1 MPH from start to finish. He had a 2.06 ERA pre break and a 3.41 ERA post break. It does make me wonder, with all these pitchers having huge jumps in innings pitched after the shortened 2020 season, if there will be some type of hangover effect in 2022. 2022 Projection: 14/3.33/1.06/218 in 185 IP

31) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Buehler had a spectacular season with a pitching line of 2.47/0.97/212/52 in 207 IP, but there were some red flags. He lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball with a career worst 95.3 MPH mark and he also put up a career worst 26% K%. I’m not downgrading him much because of it, but it is something in the back of my mind. 2022 Projection: 15/3.39/1.02/202 in 190 IP

Tier 4

32) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 28.3 – With a talent like this, give me all the injury risk. Buxton had a career best 92.5 MPH exit velocity with a max EV that was in the top 4% of the league (115.6 MPH). His 30 ft/s sprint speed is in the top 1% of the league. He hit 19 homers with 9 steals and a 1.005 OPS in 61 games this year. He can legitimately finish as the top fantasy player in baseball, and while the injury risk is very real, I think people are discounting him far too much for it. 2022 Projection: 89/28/81/.271/.326/.518/19

33) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13

34) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.8 – After a disastrous start to his MLB debut (.360 OPS after his first 30 games), Kelenic slowly got better as the season went along and finished strong in September, slashing .248/.331/.524 with 7 homers, 3 steals, and a 29/12 K/BB in 29 games. He doesn’t have major swing and miss issues with a 26.9% whiff%, and while he struggled against breaking and offspeed pitches, he got much better vs. them as the season progressed. Kelenic was a buy low for me the second he started struggling in the majors, and while his strong finish probably raised the price, there is a still a buying opportunity here. 2022 Projection:76/24/79/.252/.326/.449/10 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.268/.343/.481/14

35) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 25.10 – A minor shoulder strain and subsequent drop off in production in August and September is the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding season. Even after the shoulder strain his stuff was still excellent and his K/BB numbers were still great, so I wouldn’t be worried. Peralta throws 4 legitimately plus pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) which led to a 33.6% K% and 2.81 ERA in 144.1 IP. His control wasn’t bad (9.7% BB%), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps improving in that area. Peralta has league winning upside. 2022 Projection: 11/3.22/1.09/235 in 170 IP

36) Freddie Freeman FRA, 1B, 32.6 – Freeman ain’t young but his level of dominance year in and year out deserves at least this ranking. His .411 xwOBA ranked 7th in the league and he has been at the top of those leaderboards since Statcast came on the scene in 2015. 2022 Projection: 103/32/106/.303/.395/.522/6

37) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

38) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 24.5 – Rogers added 0.9 MPH to the fastball (94.5 MPH) and improved his control, leading to the pitch becoming one of the 10 most valuable 4 seamers in the game. The changeup placed 24th best. The slider wasn’t as good, but it was a good enough 3rd pitch with a 40.8% whiff% to put Rogers into elite territory. He’s an ace  2022 Projection: 10/3.31/1.18/196 in 165 IP

39) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 29.11 – Judge once against led all of baseball with a 95.8 MPH exit velocity. It’s only a matter of staying healthy for Judge as he played in 148 games this season and ripped 39 homers with 148 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 93/40/97/.268/.364/.550/5

40) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 29.6 – Hernandez drastically improved his K% from 30.4% in 2020 to 24.9% in 2021, and he continued to mash the ball en route to another beastly season, slashing .296/.346/.524 with 32 homers and 12 steals in 143 games. The improved contact numbers give faith he will continue to get to all of his power and speed. 2022 Projection: 88/34/104/.267/.330/.515/11

41) Marcus Semien TEX, SS/2B 31.6 – Saying Semien “bounced back” from a down 2020 would be an understatement. He went insane in 2021 with 45 homer and 15 steals. He notched a career high 89.7 MPH EV, 109.5 MPH Max EV, and 20.3 degree launch angle. The underlying numbers do provide some caution as his .368 wOBA was much better than his .329 xwOBA, but Semien is a fantasy stud. Going from Toronto to Texas is a ballpark and lineup downgrade, but he’s put up big numbers in Oakland too which is also a pitcher’s park, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much based on the move. 2022 Projection: 92/30/86/.252/.330/.491/13

42) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 28.10 – Nola finished with an unsightly 4.63 ERA, but everything in his underlying numbers say he’s the same ace he’s always been. He had a sparkling 223/39 K/BB in 180.2 IP and his xERA was 3.39 (3.37 xFIP). I doubt anyone will be willing to sell low on him, but if you can even get a small discount it is worth pouncing on. 2022 Projection: 14/3.46/1.15/225 in 190 IP

43) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 26.10 – Bieber returned from a strained shoulder at the end of the year and made two 3 inning starts where his velocity was down. It is very possible he was just taking it easy, so I don’t want to panic, but it would have been nice to see his velocity return. In the 96.2 innings he did pitch, he wasn’t able to maintain anything close to his insane 2020, but he was still putting up elite numbers with a 3.17 ERA and 33.1% K%. I would wait until we see him back to 100% during Spring Training before clearing out the farm for him. He is a hold. 2022 Projection: 12/3.35/1.10/226 in 170 IP

44) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 27.9 – Giolito had a rough April with a 5.68 ERA but he pitched like his normal dominant self after that. His K% did drop to a 3 year low to 28% (33.7% in 2020), but his BB% dropped with it to 7.1% (9.7% in 2020). 2022 Projection: 13/3.56/1.13/221 in 183 IP

45) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – Seeds of a breakout were already starting to show in 2020 beneath his mediocre surface stats, and that breakout blossomed hardcore in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers and a 25.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. He keeps improving his hit tool with a career best 28.3% whiff% and he made major strides against offspeed pitches with a .369 xwOBA against them (.223 in 2020). He’s not a real .300 hitter, but there is real juice in his bat. 2022 Projection: 85/31/98/.275/.340/.511/0

46) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 25.5 – A torn pectoral tendon limited Eloy to 55 games, and he was pretty mediocre in those games with a .740 OPS and 101 wRC+, but none of his underlying numbers were too far off from career norms to cause major concern. There is still room for improvement with his launch angle (8.4 degrees) and BB% (6.9%), but he’s going to mash even if those numbers don’t get significantly better. 2022 Projection: 84/32/103/.267/.327/.510/0

47) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 29.6 – After a dominant first half (.930 OPS pre break), Bogaerts fell off hard in the 2nd half (.761 OPS post break). He ended up having his usual rock steady season with a 130 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 96/26/87/.292/.366/.498/8

48) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 28.6 – Playing in only 90 games due to two hamstring injuries (one to each hamstring) has camouflaged how good of a season Marte had. He’s never hit the ball harder with an excellent 91.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it led to a near elite .370 xwOBA. The hamstring injuries slowed him down, putting up a career worst 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed, but that should bounce back with full health. This year proved that Marte is closer to being the guy who had a great 2019, rather than the player who had a down 2020. You can go after him with confidence this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/24/90/.298/.359/.507/7

49) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 27.11 – A fractured hand after getting hit by a pitch limited Seager to 95 games. He couldn’t fully maintain his 2020 power breakout, but he still showed the power improvements were real with a career high 115.3 Max EV and a 49.3% HardHit% which was the 2nd best mark of his career (55.9% in 2020). The overall offensive numbers were just as dominant as 2020 with a 147 wRC+ (150 wRC+ in 2020). His ascent as an elite hitter in 2020 was not a mirage. 2022 Projection: 91/26/92/.301/.380/.518/1

50) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 30.1 – Great American Ballpark is an insanely great ballpark for homers, and Castellanos immediately started ripping dingers when he got there with 14 homers in 60 games in 2020 and 34 homers in 138 games in 2021. His underlying numbers have been near elite for 6 years now, he just needed the right ballpark to unleash the beast. 2022 Projection: 92/33/97/.281/.340/.521/2

51) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 31.10 – Wheeler had a career year with a pitching line of 2.78/1.01/247/46 in 213.1 IP. His 29.1% K% was higher than his 26.5% whiff%, so I would expect some regression in that area, but both marks were easily career bests, so there was definitely real improvement. He led the league in exit velocity against at 84.6 MPH. 2022 Projection: 14/3.21/1.09/220 in 200 IP

52) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post break (32.2% in 82 games post-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6

53) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS/3B, 26.8 – Two oblique injuries and a hamstring injury limited Mondesi to just 35 games, but he once again showed his tantalizing, league winning upside in those games with 6 homers and 15 steals. His power broke out with a 92.3 MPH exit velocity and 16.1 degree launch angle. Kansas City has announced they are planning on resting him often in 2022, aiming for 120-140 games, but that would have still put him on about a 22 homer and 55 steal pace over 130 games. He’s worth the risk. 2022 Projection: 76/20/74/.253/.296/.455/43

Tier 5

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Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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Tier 1

1) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball.  2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

Tier 2

3) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.7 – Tork is a 6’1”, 220 pound bull with a swing geared towards launching bombs. And that is all he’s done in his baseball career, crushing 25 homers in 55 games as a freshman in the Pac 12, ripping 23 homers as a sophomore, and now smashing 30 bombs in his pro debut over 121 games split pretty evenly across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He does all this with an advanced plate approach (13% BB% at Triple-A) and without any major strikeout worries (20.3% K% at Triple-A). 2022 Projection: 72/27/74/.252/.337/.485/3 Prime Projection: 96/35/105/.275/.372/.533/3

4) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.6 – Greene is 6’3”, 200 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is geared for power and average. He just steamrolled through the upper levels of the minors as a 20 year old, slashing .301/.387/.534 with 24 homers, 16 steals (in 17 attempts), and a 27.4%/11.3% K%/BB% split between Double-A and Triple-A. Stolen bases weren’t supposed to be a major part of his game, but he obviously is a very savvy base stealer as he is 21 for 22 on the bases in his pro career. The K% is high, but I’m betting on that coming down as he gains more experience. 2022 Projection: 49/14/45/.255/.330/.462/5 Prime Projection: 102/30/98/.281/.364/.518/10

5) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 22.5 – Davis is 6’4”, 210 pounds with easy power and no problems keeping the ball off the ground. He smacked 19 homers in 99 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). Like many guys this tall, he has some strikeout issues with a 28.7% K%, and while he will definitely chip in with steals, he went 6 for 10 in 76 Double-A games and he didn’t attempt a steal in 15 Triple-A games. The upside is very high, but there is still some risk here too. 2022 Projection:48/17/55/.242/.313/.441/7 Prime Projection: 88/33/99/.261/.338/.510/11

6) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 21.6 – A fractured tibia and sprained MCL ended Abrams season after just 42 games. He proved his plus hit tool and speed will transfer against advanced competition at Double-A, slashing .296/.363/.420 with 2 homers, 13 steals (in 15 attempts), and a 19.7%/8.2% K%/BB%. His power isn’t there yet, and there is a chance it will never be a major part of his game, but he still looks pretty skinny to me at 6’2”, 185 pounds and don’t think those man muscles have come in yet. The power will tick up in time. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 95/18/75/.288/.342/.437/27

7) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.4 – Rodriguez is the total package with the potential for 4 plus pitches and above average control. He put up a 45.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 23.1 IP at High-A and then followed that up with a 39%/7.1% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP at Double-A. He’s the #1 pitching prospect in the game. 2022 Projection: 4/3.88/1.21/77 in 69 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.32/1.08/228 in 195 IP

8) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

9) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – Rutschman dominated the upper levels of the minors with an elite plate approach (90/79 K/BB in 123 games) and plus power (23 homers). He has an argument to be the #1 overall prospect in real baseball because of his at least plus catcher defense, but in fantasy, being a catcher only causes more problems with wear and tear and more days off. He should open the 2022 season as Baltimore’s starting catcher, but service time manipulation might also come into play. 2022 Projection: 69/22/63/.262/.341/.449/2 Prime Projection: 86/27/84/.276/.364/.493/3

Tier 3

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.4 – Veen is 6’4”, 190 pounds with a violent lefty swing that is made to hit rockets. He’s pretty skinny now, so if he puts on weight, his power upside is scary. He backed up the hype in his pro debut, slashing .301/.399/.501 with 15 homers, 36 steals in 53 attempts, and a 26.3%/13.4% K%/BB% in 106 games at Single-A. You have to throw out the steal numbers because of the Single-A rule changes, and he also wasn’t very successful, but seeing he loves to run this much is a good sign. He has elite fantasy upside, especially in Coors. I’m buying high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 99/32/103/.277/.358/.519/13

11) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – It took only 2 MLB games for Cruz to put the entire league on notice. He went 3 for 9 with 1 homer and 4/0 K/BB, but it was the elite exit velocity readings that really popped. He had a silly 100.5 MPH average exit velocity, and he hit a 118.2 MPH line drive single that was the 7th hardest hit ball all season. At 6’7”, 210 pounds, Cruz’ raw power is in rarified air. He’s had high groundball rates his entire career, but he’s slowly been improving them, putting up a 47.3% GB% in 62 games at Double-A and a 31.3% GB% in 6 games at Triple-A. Speaking of his 6 game taste of Triple-A, he went nuclear with 5 homers and a 5/8 K/BB. Oh yea, he also has plus speed with 19 steals in 22 attempts. There will inevitably be some swing and miss to his game, and I don’t think he is completely out of the woods with his high groundball rates, but Cruz very well might have the highest pure upside of anybody in the minors. 2022 Projection:72/24/81/.257/.320/.468/17 Prime Projection: 92/30/101/.272/.335/.518/16

12) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 20.11 – The power breakout came well before schedule as Volpe cranked 27 homers in 109 games split between Single-A and High-A. The Yankees drafted Volpe 30th overall in 2019 based on his hit hit tool, speed, and defense, so the power explosion puts Volpe in elite prospect territory. If you play in a shallow to medium sized league where you can’t pick up prospects during the season, Volpe should very likely be the top pick in your off-season prospect draft. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 92/26/89/.278/.352/.481/15

13) Noelvi Marte SEA, SS, 20.5 – Marte has a powerful righty swing that is both under control and lightening quick. It reminds me a bit of Manny Machado. He showed a mature plate approach (22.2%/12.1% K%/BB%), plus power (17 homers in 99 games), and speed (23 for 30 on the bases) in his full season debut as a 19 year old. He has the upside to be a perennial first rounder in fantasy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 91/33/103/.276/.362/.547/12

14) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Shoulder surgery ended Carroll’s season after just 7 games, but he managed to make such a great impression in those games, along with strong reports from the 2020 alt site, that he should still be considered a near elite prospect. He’s an explosive player with an at least plus contact/speed combo. His power has been underrated even from before he was drafted because he is only 5’10”, but he puts a sting into the baseball. Shoulder injuries are known to sap power, but he is young enough that you have to assume a full recovery. As high as his value is now, it might shoot through the roof not far into 2022. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 89/20/78/.283/.367/.463/28

15) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell dominated Single-A (139 wRC+) with a plus plate approach (17.2%/13.3% K%/BB%) and speed (31 steals), but he only hit 7 homers in 92 games with a 52.1% GB%. He then went to High-A for 18 games and proved he has the ability to make adjustments to get to his power, jacking 2 homers with a 32.7% GB%. The K% rose with the power to 28.7%, but it’s still a good sign he will eventually be able to put it all together. He’s 6’2’’, 195 pounds, so while he is expected to be a hit tool, speed guy, I wouldn’t rule out a power explosion. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/18/74/.277/.358/.446/23

16) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Casas in 6’4”, 252 pounds with double plus raw power and a mature approach at the plate. He put up a 19.1%/15.4% in 86 games at mostly Double-A (9 games at Triple-A). He has a textbook lefty swing with very little movement, and he rarely sells out to get to his power. His homer totals don’t jump out at you with only 14 homers, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 42.8% GB% (34.6% GB% at Triple-A), so even if he doesn’t make adjustments to unlock more power, he will still hit plenty of homers while maintaining a high BA. He’s in the mold of a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt if he hits his ceiling. 2022 Projection: 36/10/41/.253/.334/.469/2 Prime Projection: 96/32/102/.276/.365/.515/4

17) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 22.8 – Greene is a mountain of a man at 6’5”, 230 pounds and he puts that frame to good use by consistently pumping in upper 90’s fastballs that reach 100+ MPH often. Even his changeup is 90+ MPH and it has the potential to be a nasty pitch with good drop and tail action. The slider was much improved this year and has the potential to be a plus pitch. He used all of those weapons to put up a pitching line of 3.30/1.18/139/38 in 106.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a finished product, but Greene truly has the upside to be the best pitcher in baseball one day. 2022 Projection: 6/3.88/1.32/112 in 100 IPPrime Projection: 14/3.39/1.12/222 in 185 IP

18) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 20.4 – Alvarez is a bulldog at the plate at 5’10”, 233 pounds with massive raw power and a precocious plate approach. He put up a silly 227 wRC+ with a 10.4%/22.4% K%/BB% in 15 games at the age appropriate Single-A before he went to High-A and bashed 22 homers in 82 games. This is a do it all, middle of the order bat who has a good chance of sticking at catcher. Rutschman is going to have some competition for that top spot in a couple years. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/30/92/.272/.355/.495/4

20) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 24.2 – A stress fracture in his foot delayed the start of Jung’s season, but he came back angry, demolishing the upper levels of the minors. He slashed .326/.398/.592 with 19 homers and a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. Both of his home ballparks juice up homers, but he was even more dominant on the road. He has at least plus power and he should be able to hit for a pretty good average too. Texas might play team control games with him, but he deserves to be their starting 3B out the gate. 2022 Projection:68/22/77/.258/.327/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/29/90/.272/.344/.496/3

21) George Valera CLE, OF, 21.5 – Valera’s lefty swing is so sweet it could give a guy diabetes, and he used it to abuse High-A pitchers with 19 homers and a .910 OPS in 86 games. He also put up an excellent 22.1%/20.9% K%/BB% that led to a .405 OBP. He met his match at Double-A with a 30% K%, but he still walked at a good clip (11% BB%) and ended up with an above average 104 wRC+ in 23 games. He has average speed too and nabbed 11 bags on the year, so he should contribute in every category. He’s a near elite stud who I don’t think is being valued quite that way, although he surely gets a lot of love. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 92/28/91/.271/.362/.497/7

22) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 22.10 – Gonzalez went from an extremely hitter friendly environment in college to an extremely hitter friendly environment in the pros. Pitt’s High-A ballpark and the AFL are both extreme hitter’s havens. He unsurprisingly beat up on inferior competition in these parks with a .950 OPS in 80 games at High-A and a 1.032 OPS in 19 AFL games. His 27.4% K% at High-A is really the only thing to quibble with. Gonzales’ .950 OPS is actually the worst he’s ever done in any league going back to his freshman year (including the Cape Cod League), which is remarkable. All this guy has done is dominate. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 93/25/82/.273/.344/.479/11

23) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 24.2 – Brujan couldn’t maintain his early season power surge of 7 homers in his first 16 games (12 homers in 103 games at Triple-A), but his power definitely took a step forward this year. He combines that uptick in power with an elite plate approach (15.4%/11.1% K%/BB%) and plus speed (44 for 52 on the bases). He played all over the field (2B, SS, 3B, OF), and Tampa loves to move guys around, so Brujan is setting up to be the ultimate multi-position eligibility player who will see the field almost everyday at peak. 2022 Projection:48/7/39/.262/.326/.398/16 Prime Projection: 92/14/66/.283/.355/.423/30

24) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman’s hit tool took a huge step forward this year. He brought his K% down to 22% in the upper levels of the minors (29.7% in 2019), and he didn’t sacrifice much power with 25 homers in 119 games. The ingredients are there for him to become a complete middle of the order masher. 2022 Projection: 38/12/36/.248/.312/.445/2 Prime Projection: 83/28/90/.266/.339/.491/4

25) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – Walker has huge raw power at 6’5”, 220 pounds, and he got to a lot of it in his pro debut with 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 14 homers in 82 games split between Single-A and High-A. He’s also a good athlete for his size as he snagged 14 bags. While his plate approach regressed at High-A (27%/6.1% K%/BB%), it looked more advanced than expected at the age appropriate Single-A (17.2%/14.8% K%/BB%). He’s far from a finished product, but there is star upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/29/93/.262/.344/.502/8

26) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby battled shoulder fatigue during the season which limited him to 67.2 IP, but he cruised in those innings with a pitching line of 2.53/1.08/80/15 split between High-A and Double-A. He dominates with a double plus upper 90’s fastball that he has elite control over. He throws 3 secondaries (slider, change, curve) that are all about average right now, and he’ll need one of them to tick up to plus in order to reach his top of the rotation ceiling. 2022 Projection:5/4.08/1.22/93 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.69/1.13/202 in 183 IP

27) Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 20.6 – It was an up and down season for Luciano for with more downs than ups. He started off by struggling hard in Spring Training with a .374 OPS in 29 AB which he carried over into the first few weeks of the season at Single-A. We then thought he put those struggles behind him when he started destroying the level, finishing with 18 homers, a .930 OPS and a 22.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 70 games, but the struggles returned at High-A which has bled into the Fall League. He had a 37.2%/6.9% K%/BB% with a .577 OPS in 36 games at High-A and now has a 32.2% K% with a .730 OPS in 21 Fall games. His numbers at the age appropriate Single-A take precedence, which is why I still consider him an elite prospect, but he is obviously not close to a finished product right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/33/94/.269/.345/.526/7

28) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 20.2 – Matos has that perfect combination of floor and upside. His 12.4% K% in 109 games at Single-A is elite, and he combines that with plus speed (21 steals) and developing power (15 homers). At worst we are looking at a moderate power/speed combo with a good average, and at best there is a next level power breakout which will put him in the land of the elite. His plate approach does still need some refinement with a 5.7% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/21/77/.285/.333/.455/16

29) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 19.2 – Dominguez didn’t exactly blow the doors off in his pro debut, but he held serve with a 105 wRC+ in 49 games in full season ball. And putting up a .346 OBP is actually pretty damn impressive considering his age and the fact he had zero pro experience before this season. I’m still all in on the upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection:  94/28/93/.269/.362/.503/16

30) Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 20.4 – I’ve been high on Martinez for a few years now and it paid off big time in 2021 with a power explosion. He cracked 28 homers in 98 games split between Single-A and High-A. He performed better at the age appropriate Single-A (149 wRC+) than he did at High-A (99 wRC+), but he actually improved his K% after jumping levels from 26.1% to 22.4%, which is a great sign. Martinez has the upside to become a slugging middle the order bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/32/98/.263/.338/.508/5

31) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 20.4 – A back injury ended Soderstrom’s season after just 57 games, but it was a damn good 57 games, slashing .306/.390/.568 with 12 homers, 2 steals, and a 24%/10.6% K%/BB% at Single-A. He’s a complete hitter with a simple and powerful lefthanded swing. There is no guarantee he sticks behind the plate, but that would probably be better off for fantasy. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.276/.352/.487/4

32) Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 21.11 – Thomas was putting together a damn fine season at Double-A with a 134 wRC+, 10 homers and 8 steals in 72 games before going nuclear at Triple-A with a 168 wRC+, 8 homers, and 5 steals in 34 games. In spite of the great numbers and age relative to level success, I’m still a little concerned about his ultimate power/speed upside. His stolen base success rate has been very poor (40 for 65 in 276 career games), and he hits the ball on the ground a lot (55.5% GB% at Double-A and 50.4% at Triple-A). He’s shaping up to be a guy who will contribute in every category, but the upside seems a little capped to me right now. 2022 Projection: 39/7/33/.265/.318/.412/7 Prime Projection: 82/18/68/.285/.343/.441/16

33) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, SS, 21.10 – Peraza started lifting the ball much more in 2022 and it led to a power breakout with 18 homers in 115 games. He did progressively get worse as he climbed the minor league ladder (.917 OPS in High-A/.815 in Double-A/.715 in Triple-A), and his stolen base percentage and BB% also plummeted when he got into the upper levels, but the ingredients are there for him to be an impact player in 5×5 AVG leagues in particular. 2022 Projection: 23/2/18/.258/.301/.409/4 Prime Projection: 86/20/81/.272/.331/.444/18

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

It’s Top 1,000 week over on my Patreon, and we’re starting with the Top 100 2022 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

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Tier 1

1) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 19.4 – Selected 4th overall, Mayer stays loose and easy in his stance before unleashing a vicious lefty swing that has monster offensive potential written all over it. He did show some swing and miss in his pro debut with a 25.2% K% in 26 games, but he has a mature plate approach (14% BB%) and a swing that is geared for both power and average. He put up a 121 wRC+. Lack of speed is the only issue for fantasy, and it is the reason he is far from a lock for the top pick in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/25/88/.274/.346/.478/8

2) Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 18.11 – Selected 16th overall, Watson’s upside is high as anyone’s in the draft with lightening quick bat speed and a plus power/speed combo from the left side. He only fell to 16th overall due to signing bonus demands (he ended up with the 10th highest bonus). While he didn’t show much power in his 9 game pro debut (60% GB% with 0 homers), he did steal 4 bags and had an excellent 16.7%/19% K%/BB% in an obviously very small sample. This is the type of upside you look for when drafting at the top of first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/23/83/.268/.342/.458/18

3) Jack Leiter TEX, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 2nd overall, Leiter can dominate with just his mid 90’s fastball, but he also has a deep repertoire of pitches, throwing a 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, curve (best secondary), slider and change. He understands the art of pitching which is no surprise considering his dad is Al Leiter. He’s only 6 feet, and his control can waver, but it didn’t stop him from putting up a dominant pitching line of 2.13/0.85/179/45 in 110 IP in the SEC. This could be the rare year when it makes sense to take a pitcher first. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 15/3.48/1.17/218 in 185 IP

4) Brady House WAS, SS, 18.10 – Selected 11th overall, House is a big physical hitter at 6’4”, 215 pounds who has double plus raw power and takes monster hacks at the dish with quick bat speed. He ripped 4 homers in his 16 game pro debut. He also has a mature plate approach and is a good athlete. I know I’m sounding like a broken record, but there is a legitimate argument for him to go 1st overall. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/28/92/.268/.339/.492/7

5) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Selected 6th overall, Lawlar has a relatively simple, quick swing that he uses to make tons of contact with the ability to lift the ball. He has plus speed and the power should develop naturally to above average at the least. A shoulder injury that required surgery ended his pro debut after just two games, which is just enough of a bump in the road for me to move him down a few spots on my draft board. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/21/79/.268/.335/.448/17

6) Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall, Davis’ power breakout happened in the shortened 2020 season, and it carried over into 2021 with Davis slashing .370/.482/.663 with 15 homers, 10 steals, and a 24/31 K/BB in 50 games. He’s got a thick build and absolutely scorches the ball. He stepped right into pro ball and ripped 3 homers in 8 games at mostly High-A before an oblique injury ended his season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/26/89/.268/.337/.481/6

7) Seiya Suzuki FRA, OF, 27.7 – Suzuki has dominated in Japan since 2016 with a righty swing that is both easy and explosive. He ripped a career high 38 homers in 2021, and he combines the power with an advanced plate approach (16.5%/16.4% K%/BB%) and some speed (9 steals in 13 attempts). I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter. If you are a win now team who needs an OF, Suzuki should be in heavy consideration at #1. 2022 Projection: 77/24/81/.264/.336/.463/7

Tier 2

8) Harry Ford SEA, C, 19.2 – Selected 12th overall, Ford generates plus power with one of the quickest bats in the draft, notching an 80.8 MPH max barrel speed which is in the 98.86 percentile of his high school class (stats from Perfect Game). He also had plus speed with a 6.5 second 60 yard dash. He used those skills to rake in his pro debut, slashing .291/.400/.582 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 21.5%/13.8% K%/BB% in 19 games. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/27/85/.262/.338/.486/10

9) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 3rd overall, Jobe has a devastating slider that is an elite pitch with high spin rates. He pairs that with a mid 90’s fastball and a changeup that flashes plus. The delivery is athletic, and while he still needs some refinement, he is the highest upside high school arm in the class. He’s a two way prospect, but his future is on the mound. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 14/3.55/1.19/195 in 177 IP

10) Benny Montgomery COL, OF, 19.7 – Selected 8th overall, Montgomery is possibly the highest upside bat in the class, putting up a 103 MPH exit velocity and a 6.32 60 yard dash time. That puts him at the top of the class in power and speed. His hit tool was supposed to be raw, but it actually looked pretty good in his pro debut, slashing .340/.404/.383 with 0 homers, 5 steals and a 17.3%/9.6% K%/BB% in 14 games. He wasn’t able to get to any of his power with a 55.6% groundball percentage, but seeing the strong K% is almost more important at this stage of the game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/24/83/.258/.332/.460/15

11) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 19.4 – Selected 30th overall, Allen is a 3 sport star and is one of the best athletes in the class. He’s 6’3”, 190 pounds and takes some vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing much more power is coming. Even without concentrating on baseball full time he has shown a good feel to hit with the potential for a plus power/speed combo. He impressed right out of the gate in his pro debut, slashing .328/.440/.557 with 3 homers, 14 steals (in 15 attempts) and a 16%/10.7% K%/BB% in 19 games. He’s a major target of mine in off-season prospect drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/20/74/.273/.335/.446/20

12) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.7 – Selected 62nd overall, Wood is a big and athletic lefty at 6’7”, 240 pounds with plus power and above average run times. He dominated rookie ball in his pro debut, slashing .372/.465/.535 with 3 homers, 10 steals and a 31.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 26 games. Like any player this tall, he has some hit tool concerns, and his GB% was a bit high at 49%. This is basically the Oneil Cruz starter kit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.247/.326/.458/9

13) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 22.0 – Drafted 5th overall, Cowser’s power exploded this season with 16 homers in 55 games in the Southland Conference. That was the final piece to the puzzle as he has shown a good feel to hit with an advanced plate approach from the second he stepped on campus. He then followed that up with a strong pro debut, putting up a 158 wRC+ with a 15.3%/17.7% K%/BB% in 25 games at Single-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 85/22/80/.278/.350/.458/8

14) Sal Frelick MIL, OF, 22.0 – Selected 15th overall, Frelick has a plus hit, plus speed profile. He’s undersized, and while he doesn’t project for big power numbers, the ball jumps off his bat. He has a strong history of production in the ACC, slashing .345/.435/.521 with 12 homers, 38 steals, and a 50/60 K/BB in 102 games, and he proved those skills will transfer in his pro debut. He has the type of profile that should move through the minors quickly. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 81/14/65/.276/.339/.412/17

15) Matt McLain CIN, SS, 22.8 – Selected 17th overall, McLain is a safe college bat with a good feel to hit, some pop, and plus speed, but doesn’t stand out in any one category. He slashed .333/.434/.579 with 9 homers, 9 steals, and a 34/34 K/BB in 47 games at UCLA, and then performed well in his pro debut at High-A, slashing .273/.387/.424 with 3 homers, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 29 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/18/71/.274/.343/.425/15

16) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 21.11 – Selected 20th overall, Sweeney was a bat first prospect who absolutely raked in college this year, slashing .382/.522/.712 with 14 homers and a 24/46 K/BB in 48 games. He immediately showed his power is legit with 7 homers in 32 games in his pro debut at mostly Single-A. Coming out of the Ohio Valley Conference, he has still yet to face top level competition, but the Yankees are clearly believers, and his pro debut did nothing to prove them wrong. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.261/.337/.457/5

THE FULL 2022 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS WILL HIT MY PATREON THIS WEEK!!! (IT WILL BE RELEASED FOR FREE ON MY SITE SOMETIME IN MARCH) … CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR THAT RANKING AND MUCH MORE

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)