January 2023 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 23, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

The 2023 Top 500 Prospects Rankings will drop in a week or two over on Patreon (released for free on IBW in mid to late March), but I love to put out the traditional Top 100 first. These rankings are for medium size, 5×5 BA dynasty leagues. Here are the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 16, 2023January 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Top 10 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right?!?! Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me for being so naive. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

2) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.8 – Abel’s 6’5”, 190 pound build, combined with a 4 pitch mix led by a mid to upper 90’s fastball, screams ace upside, but the numbers and command say more mid rotation starter. He put up a 3.90 ERA with a 130/50 K/BB in 108.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. Maybe the immediate and unquestioned dominance of Painter put the expectations too high for the still very young Abel. It seems reasonable to expect continued refinement of his command and secondaries in his age 21 year old season. If he can take those steps, his value will skyrocket, but even as is, he’s a damn exciting prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/181 in 170 IP

3) Justin Crawford PHI, OF, 18.6 – Son of Carl Crawford. I could honestly end the blurb right there and you will know exactly the type of player Justin is. 6.11 second 60 yard dash is in the elite of the elite, and he has shown a good feel to hit. The power hasn’t fully developed yet, and he hit 0 homers with very, very high groundball rates in his 16 game pro debut, so he’s not only going to have to get stronger, he’s also going to have to make a swing adjustment to tap into more power. His upside is as high as anyone’s in a 5×5 BA, but he’s not as refined as the high school hitters ranked above him. He was selected 17th overall. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/16/69/.270/.337/.426/31

4) Griff McGarry PHI, RHP, 23.10 – McGarry has a mid to upper 90’s fastball that literally looks like it is swimming through the air. Hitters have had some ugly swings trying to square that thing up. The secondaries are nasty too with a plus slider, plus cutter, a changeup that flashes plus, and a curve as well. It led to a 35.7% K% in 87.1 IP split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). It’s top of the rotation stuff. The one snafu is that his control is very bad. He had a 14.6% BB%. His 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP don’t exactly pop. His control issues were actually much worse than this in college (42 walks in 43 IP in the ACC in 2021), so this is improvement. I’m not sure if that means there could be continued improvement coming, or if this is the top of his ability. He very well could end up in the bullpen, and that is probably the most likely outcome, but if his control can take just one more step forward, he’s going to be a major problem. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.67/1.28/172 in 150 IP

5) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 18.5 – Bergolla was a favorite of mine from the 2022 international class and he was a hit machine in his pro debut with a .380 BA and 3.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 24 games in the DSL. It was good for a 150 wRC+. He didn’t hit a single homer and he only stole 2 bags, so I’m a little concerned about the upside, but he’s one of the safest bats coming out of the DSL. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.281/.343/.414/16

6) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 22.8 – Rojas is a speedster who nabbed 62 bags in 67 attempts in 130 games split between High-A and Double-A. He has above average, but not elite contact rates with a 17.8% K%, and his power is lacking with only 7 homers. We’ve seen enough of these types of prospects struggle hard when they hit the majors, but he has an elite skill in his speed, and the power should hopefully tick up in time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/13/57/.252/.318/.396/27

7) Hao Yu Lee PHI, SS/3B/2B, 20.2 – Lee had a strong season in the lower minors, slashing .284/.386/.438 with 9 homers, 14 steals, and a 67/43 K/BB in 79 games at mostly Single-A, but he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to get excited. He was only 19 years old, but he’s not that projectable at 5’10”, 190 pounds, and he’s not a burner either. It’s a low upside profile with risk due to the lack of power upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/15/62/.253/.323/.417/6

8) Nikau Pouaka-Grego PHI, 2B/3B, 18.7 – Pouaka-Grego was 17 years old playing in stateside rookie ball and he excelled, slashing .301/.424/.466 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 16/16 K/BB in 35 games. He has a smooth lefty uppercut swing that is made to hit flyballs (36.1% GB%), and he combines that with an advanced plate approach. He’s not a big raw power or speed guy, so the upside might not be huge. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.273/.344/.432/6

9) Gabriel Rincones PHI, OF, 22.1 – Selected 93rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rincones is 6’4″, 225 pounds with a quick lefty swing that produces all fields power. He destroyed Conference USA, slashing .346/.451/.658 with 19 homers, 2 steals, and a 51/42 K/BB in 58 games. He hasn’t faced the best competition and there is some swing and miss in his game, but the power is for real. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/18/63/.244/.322/.448/2

10) … Nobody – There ain’t no participation trophies at Imaginary Brick Wall (even though I had a shelf full of them as a kid) 🤣 Nobody who I could give this spot to would even crack my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Some systems I wanted to go over 20 deep, and this one stops at 9. Just how the cookie crumbles. Let’s move on to MLB guys …

MLB Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel PHI, Closer Committee, 34.10 – If Kimbrel is right, his name value and track record should lock down the closer job for Philly, but there is no guarantee he will be right. He was terrible in 2019 and 2020, inconsistent in 2021, and just mediocre in 2022 with a 3.75 ERA and a career low by far 27.7 K%. The stuff is still big with a 95.8 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a 43.6% whiff%, but it’s not as big as it used to be. He used to throw 98+ MPH and his slider used to put up a 55% whiff%. He’s never been a plus control guy, so he doesn’t have that pitchability to fall back on as the stuff drops off. He’s pretty clearly in a decline phase, but the skills are there to still be a good reliever, and even if he’s not the best pen arm Philly has, I think he’ll get the job if he is acceptable enough. 2023 Projection: 4/3.51/1.22/80/20 saves in 63 IP

Jose Alvarado PHI, Closer Committee, 27.10 – This bullpen is full of high upside options, but Alvarado might have the highest upside of them all. He had a silly 37.9% K% on the back of a 99.6 MPH sinker and an elite cutter that put up a .110 xwOBA and 55.7% whiff%. He’s struggled with control his entire career, but something clicked in the 2nd half of the season where he put up a 1.30 ERA with a 61/10 K/BB in his final 34.2 IP. Being a lefty might work against him locking down the full time closer role, but he should be their top lefthanded option there. 2023 Projection: 4/3.03/1.18/82/15 saves in 58 IP

Seranthony Dominguez PHI, Closer Committee, 28.4 – If Kimbrel can’t lock down the job in Spring, Dominguez could be the favorite to get the first shot at it. His slider is elite with a 57.1% whiff% and he combines that with 2 upper 90’s fastballs in his 97.6 MPH 4-seamer and 98.2 MPH sinker. It was good for a 3.00 ERA and 61/22 K/BB in 51 IP, which doesn’t exactly jump off the screen, but he’s capable of topping that. 2023 Projection: 4/3.15/1.12/71/10 saves in 55 IP

Gregory Soto PHI, Closer Committee, 28.2 – No, don’t do it. It just can’t be him. He isn’t good. He had a 4.08 xERA with 1.38 WHIP and a bad 22.8%/12.9% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. The stuff is big with a 98.7 MPH fastball, so the talent is certainly there, but he seems like the clear worst option here. 2023 Projection: 3/3.66/1.33/66/5 saves in 60 IP

MLB Hitters

Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Philly made some adjustments with Marsh after they traded for him, and he performed well there with a 114 wRC+ in 138 PA, but I’m still struggling to buy in too hard because the plate approach was still poor with a 29.7%/4.3% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a line drive approach and has plus speed. That is a profile where good things tend to happen if you can make enough contact and/or get on base, but Marsh is struggling in both of those areas. He’s also been terrible against lefties. A strong side of a platoon bat seems like the best case scenario for early in his career. 2023 Projection: 53/11/48/.248/.309/.415/11

MLB Starting Pitchers

Ranger Suarez PHI, LHP, 27.8 – Suarez had visa issues because of the lockout, arriving late to camp in Spring, and it clearly messed him up. He put up a 4.74 ERA in his first 43.2 IP, but then found his rhythm and put up a 3.22 ERA the rest of the way in 111.2 IP. His game is all about keeping the ball on the ground (5.1 degree launch) and inducing weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against). He does it mostly with a 92.5 MPH sinker that put up a negative 3 degree launch, but he also has 5 other pitches, 4 of which put up an above average xwOBA (change, cutter, curve, slider). He doesn’t have huge stuff, he’s not a huge K guy (19.5% K%), and he’s not an elite command guy (8.8% BB%), so the upside isn’t necessarily huge, but there is an interesting blend of skills and pitch mix here to be a legitimate impact fantasy starter. 2023 Projection: 11/3.73/1.25/150 in 170 IP

Bailey Falter PHI, LHP, 25.11 – I named Bailey a low key, late round flier type target last off-season, and while Philly used him as an up and down arm for the most of the year, he excelled when they finally gave him a real shot. He put up a 3.00 ERA with 37/6 K/BB in 45 IP to close out the season. Plus control is his game with an elite 4.9% BB%. The stuff isn’t big with a 91 MPH sinker, but he has a 5 pitch mix that puts up respectable K rates with an almost average 21.2% K% and 23.8% whiff%. He won’t be a league winner, but he can a stabilizing force at the back of your fantasy rotation if he can make it through spring with the 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 9/3.89/1.23/127 in 140 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Smart teams know that depth is extremely important, so the Cubs recent signings of Hosmer and Mancini are good moves for real life, but man do they throw a wrench in the Matt Mervis hype train. I can’t say I didn’t see this coming, trying to pour at least a small amount of water on the hype, writing in the Mervis blurb, “Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now.” I also brought up his platoon risk. If you’re a Mervis fan, this should only be a temporary road block, but it’s now questionable whether he will even break camp with the team, and he’s going to have to earn it every step of the way without a very long leash when he does get his shot. You can no longer count on him holding down that 1B job for your dynasty team in 2023. If he eventually wins it, consider it gravy.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 260 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 5, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: 2023 Top 109 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s a new year, and that means there is a new crop of prospects ready to take pro ball by storm. This list includes both drafted players and international prospects. Here is the 2023 Top 109 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Tier 1

1) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.283/.362/.491/14

Tier 2

3) Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Selected 12th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, LA put any concerns to rest real early about Neto not playing in the toughest college conference (Big South), quickly moving him to Double-A where he thrived, slashing .320/.382/.492 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.3%/5.9% K%/BB% in 30 games. I loved him even before the big pro debut, writing around draft time, “Maybe I’ve been watching so much Spencer Steer lately that I’m just seeing him in everywhere, but I’m seeing a lot of Steer in Neto’s game. I think they are both taking a page out of Alex Bregman’s book.” He did what he was supposed to do against the inferior college competition with total across the board destruction, and he also proved it in the Cape League with a 1.026 OPS and an 8/8 K/BB in 16 games. He might not win you any one category, but he can make an impact in all of them. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/23/81/.276/.342/.458/13

4) Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Selected 5th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Green is the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect. He is a fully grown man at 6’3”, 225 pounds and his father, Eric Green, is a former 1st round pick, Pro Bowl NFL Tight End. He has truly elite speed (6.16 60 yard dash) and exit velocity numbers, but it comes with major hit tool risk. He showed the upside and risk in all it’s glory in his MLB debut with a 156 wRC+ and 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball. If you want to shoot for the moon in off-season first year player drafts, Green is your guy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/32/92/.248/.330/.509/17

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/10

6) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.10 – Selected 4th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Johnson looks like a seasoned MLB vet at the dish, spitting at pitches out of the zone and making excellent contact when he does swing. His swing looks geared more for contact than power at the moment, but he clearly showed his power potential in the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors where he crushed 24 homers, one of which went 501 feet. He’s currently in the 98.22 percentile in his class for bat speed too. He’s not a burner, but a 6.65 60 yard dash (Perfect Game) is pretty damn good and he stole 9 bags in 8 Team USA games (he slashed .375/.483/.542 in those games), so his speed might be getting undersold. The only hiccup is his pro debut. He had a 27.6% K% in 9 games at rookie ball and a 24.5% K% in 14 games at Single-A. Both marks are far off from elite contact, but he walked a lot at each level and stole 6 bags total. He also put up a 139 wRC+ at Single-A. The guy can play. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/23/86/.277/.355/.478/12

7) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

8) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – It’s never easy valuing veteran players from overseas in relation to teenagers in the minors, which is why I don’t think Senga (and Yoshida) should be included in First Year Player Drafts. He should be included in the MLB portion of your off-season festivities with the rest of the 30 year olds. Including him in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, but I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy at the top of First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter like Senga. He signed for 5 years, $75 million, which tells you the type of production MLB executives expect him out of him. Good, but not great. His control is solid, but not standout, and his 8.6% BB% was actually below average. He’s not an innings eater type at 6’0, 178 pounds, and he’s only eclipsed 148 IP once since 2017. I say that to show he isn’t a slam dunk, but there are definitely skills here to get excited about. He throws in the mid to upper 90’s and his splitter is a devastating pitch. He also throws an above average slider and average curve. It’s a #2 starter at best, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him struggle a bit. 2023 Projection: 11/3.82/1.26/164 in 160 IP

Tier 3

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 2, 2023January 4, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – I implored my Patreon members to go out and buy Lodolo (along with Spencer Strider and Cristian Javier) while he was on the IL in my Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets back in June, and then the breakout came shortly after that. He put up a 3.35 ERA with a 112/34 K/BB in 88.2 IP after touting him (5.52 ERA in 14.2 IP previously). His curveball is the money maker with a .220 xwOBA and 46% whiff%, and the bat missing 94.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either with a 27.6% whiff%. He rounds out the repertoire with a groundball inducing sinker and changeup. He’s an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’6” with a Randy Johnson-esque side arm lefty delivery. Injuries and Great American Ballpark are the only things that can hold him back. 2023 Projection: 10/3.48/1.18/175 in 150 IP

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 23.8 – It felt like I was the only one who believed in Greene for a little while there, naming him a player to target in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Targets in September, and while his late season dominance chipped into some of that value, I still think there is a buying opportunity. He closed the season out with a 1.02 ERA and 51/8 K/BB in his final 35.1 IP. He throws a swing and miss 98.3 MPH fastball (28.3% whiff%) with a plus slider (.245 xwOBA). It was good for a 4.44 ERA (4.00 xERA) and a 30.9%/9.0% K%/BB% in 125.2 IP on the season, which is a damn good rookie year. A shoulder injury knocked out one and a half months of his season, and his lightly used changeup got hit up, but he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. Use the inflated ERA to buy while you still can. 2023 Projection: 10/3.65/1.20/188 in 160 IP

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – Ashcraft wasn’t able to miss nearly enough bats in the majors with a 15.3% K% and 18.6% whiff%. It led to a 4.89 ERA in 105 IP. There are reasons for hope though. His 97.3 MPH cutter, which he went to over half the time (50.7% usage), generally got the job done with a 2 degree launch and 85.6 MPH EV against. His slider was an above average pitch with a .269 xwOBA and 32% whiff%. He induced weak contact (86.9 MPH EV), kept the ball in the ground (3.8 degree launch), and threw the ball over the plate (career best at any level 6.5% BB%). His 4.02 xERA looks much better than the inflated ERA. Ashcraft also realizes the almost all fastball approach (he threw a sinker 21.5% of the time too) isn’t going to cut it, and has been working hard on his changeup and splitter this off-season. He should go for a super cheap price this off-season, and I will almost certainly be grabbing him in every league. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.32/129 in 155 IP

Hitters

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – India’s low EV from 2021 (87.6 MPH) came back to bite him in 2022, and it actually got even worse, tanking to 85.1 MPH. His speed tanked too from an 85.6 percentile speed rank to 58.9 percentile. He battled a variety of injuries all season long, but it’s hard to place all of the blame on them. You’re going to get dinged up as a major leaguer. It was a disaster sophomore season all around. We’ve seen many players bounce back from the classic sophomore slump, and he’s still in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. You don’t want to write off such a talented player like India after one bad, injury filled year. This is a bet on the player and the talent, because the underlying numbers are not kind to him. 2023 Projection: 76/20/72/.256/.333/.427/9

Wil Myers CIN, 1B/OF, 32.4 – Myers fantasy value was in it’s final death throes, but his value got one of those double paddle electrical impulses to the chest by signing with Cincinnati. It’s not like getting hit by those paddles returns you to prime form, but at least he has a pulse. He goes from one of the worst ballparks in the league to one of the best. He’s been a below average hitter for the last two years with high K rates (30.1% K% in 2022) and mediocre EV numbers (91.4 MPH FB/LD EV), but neither of them are in hopeless territory, and he still has his athleticism with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m far from targeting him, but he’s an interesting later round pick for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 66/19/69/.251/.322/.429/9

Jake Fraley CIN, OF, 27.10 – Fraley had a strong 2022 with a .812 OPS in 68 games, but I’m not buying in. His 85.1 MPH EV is terrible and it’s been bad his entire career. His hit tool took a big step forward with a career best 21.9% K%, but it’s still only average at best with a .259 BA and .248 xBA. And while he has some speed with a 28 ft/sec sprint, he only stole 4 bags last year. You certainly can’t count on the power, it’s doubtful he will be a positive in BA, and you can’t count on big stolen base totals. 2023 Projection: 66/14/59/.250/.331/.420/9

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 26.6 – It’s been said a million and one times, but no other position has as many guys who pop up and perform to truly elite levels. It’s why going cheap on closer is a very effective strategy. Diaz made his pro debut in 2022 and was immediately elite with a pitching line of 1.84/0.96/83/33 in 63.2 IP. He has that classic closer profile with 95.7 MPH gas combined with a plus slider (.234 xwOBA and 45% whiff%). He misses bats (32.5% K%) and induces weak contact (86.7 MPH EV against). Poor control is the one thing that can hold him back with a 12.9% BB%, but his control really wasn’t that horrific in his minor league career, so I’m not super concerned about that. He seems locked in as Cincy’s closer and is a great 2nd/3rd tier closer to grab after the top guys go for a much much higher price. 2023 Projection: 4/3.22/1.16/85/26 saves in 65 IP

Top 20 Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He then played in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he ran a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

2) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

3) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

4) Spencer Steer CIN, SS/2B/3B, 25.4 – Low EV numbers in a prospects MLB debut are a bit scary to me, and Steer’s 84.7 MPH EV in 108 PA put a halt to his hype train from the destruction he laid in the upper minors. He slashed .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 4 steals, and a 89/51 K/BB in 106 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit the ball harder in the minors, but he’s no Aaron Judge, and at 25 years old already, it’s hard to say there is much more power coming. It wasn’t all bad in the majors as he showed a strong plate approach with a 24.1%/10.2% K%/BB% and an above average 24.8% Chase%. His 90.1 MPH FB/LD EV also isn’t as hopeless as his average, and I don’t want to put too much weight on the small sample. He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut. 2023 Projection: 44/14/42/.250/.316/.419/3 Prime Projection: 77/23/76/.267/.334/.446/5

5) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 19.7 – Arroyo had a huge start to the season, cracking 12 homers in his first 63 games, but he hit only 2 homers in 53 games the rest of the way. His K% took a step back too, putting up a 22.8% K% in 87 games with Seattle and a 28.4% K% in 27 games after getting traded to Cincinnati. He had a high BABIP and a mediocre 8.5% BB%. He’s not some insane athlete, the hit tool has risk, and there isn’t big raw power. I say all this to just give some caution, because he had a damn exciting triple slash of .293/.366/.480 with 14 homers and 27 steals at Single-A. The upside isn’t huge, but it’s hard not to be impressed by this level of performance from someone who was 18 years old for most of the year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/72/.258/.320/.427/18

6) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.4 – Strand has destroyed every level he’s been at, putting up a 1.103 OPS in 2021 in the Big 12, a 1.022 OPS at Single-A in 2021, a .986 OPS at High-A in 2022, and a .934 OPS at Double-A in 2022. He has big time power, smashing 32 homers in 122 games split between High-A and Double-A this year. The plate approach isn’t great with a 25.0%/4.8% K%/BB% at Double-A, and he’s not a good defensive player, so he will likely have to scratch and claw for playing time. The trade to Cincinnati from Minnesota gives him both a major ballpark upgrade and also an opportunity upgrade. 2023 Projection: 11/4/13/.233/.298/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/81/.247/.316/.462/3

7) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.6 – Jorge completely backed up his big 2021 in the DSL, slashing .261/.405/.529 with 7 homers, 27 steals, and a 26.6%/16.2% K%/BB% in 42 games in stateside rookie ball. He’s not an imposing figure at 5’10”, 160 pounds, but he can certainly put a charge into the ball in the mold of a Jose Ramirez, and he’s an excellent base runner with plus speed. The strikeout rate is a little higher than optimal, but don’t let his diminutive stature fool you, Jorge has legitimate upside and could explode up rankings in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/18/68/.263/.337/.423/25

8) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Stewart is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential to hit for both power and average. He put up a 5/4 K/BB with 4 doubles and a 135 wRC+ in 8 games in his pro debut at rookie ball, and he didn’t show any major groundball issues with a 42.1% GB%. He might end up moving to 1B, but he has the bat to profile anywhere. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.268/.341/.476/4

9) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – McLain had a big power/speed season at Double-A with 17 homers and 27 steals in 103 games at Double-A, but his .232 BA and 28.1% K% is concerning, and he tanked in the AFL with a .657 OPS and 31.2% K%. He’s not a big raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds, so the hit tool trouble is particularly troubling. 2023 Projection: 9/2/11/.223/.291/.403/3 Prime Projection: 69/18/73/.238/.317/.421/16

10) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 20.4 – Allen’s power was much worse than anticipated. He hit only 3 homers in 91 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. There was tons of weak contact that led to a .225 BA. His contact rates weren’t all that good either with a 24% K%. He’s a great athlete with plus speed (43 steals) and more raw power in the tank at 6’2”, 190 pounds, so the upside is still high, but the lack of power was extreme enough for me to shy away from him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.240/.317/.418/22

11) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 20.0 – Petty’s stuff wasn’t as big as advertised with his fastball sitting around 93-94 MPH rather than the mid to upper 90’s we were expecting/hoping for. Maybe he was taking a little bit off to help his control/command, because he was better than expected there with a 7.7% BB%. He put up a 3.48 ERA with a 23.7% K%. We thought he was high risk/high reward coming into 2022, and he ended up being the opposite of that. He’s now relatively safe but the upside seems limited, especially with Great American Ballpark waiting for him. Maybe he’ll start airing it out more in 2023 to reclaim his upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.28/153 in 160 IP

12) Leonardo Balcazar CIN, SS, 18.9 – Balcazar ripped up the DSL in 2021 with a 135 wRC+, and he did the same stateside in 2022 with a 144 wRC+ in 42 games. His 25% K% is on the high side, but he has an exciting blend of tools with emerging power (4 homers in 42 games), speed (13 steals), and a mature plate approach (10.7% BB%). He’s flying too far under the radar. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/21/74/.263/.334/.432/14

13) Victor Acosta CIN, SS, 18.10 – Acosta couldn’t build on his standout DSL performance in 2021. His OPS dropped to .707 and he went 5 for 12 on the bases in 42 games stateside. It wasn’t a complete disaster with a 22.4%/12.7% K%/BB% that led to a slightly above average wRC+, but his value took a big hit. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 70/14/61/.253/.324/.410/11

14) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 21.11 – Phillips has major bullpen risk, but he can be an elite back end guy even if he does end up there. He has big time stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average curve. It led to 150 K’s in 109.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The bullpen risk comes from his poor control (66 walks) and weak changeup. He also performed much worse at Double-A (4.93 ERA in 45.2 IP) than at High-A (2.95 ERA in 64 IP). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.43/1.19/83/25 saves in 65 IP

15) Brandon Williamson CIN, LHP, 25.0 – Williamson was getting hyped up pretty hard last off-season, and I’m quite happy I held strong with my evaluation of him as more of a #4 type starter. He was bad in 2022 with a pitching line of 4.11/1.56/123/77 in 122.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and his control was terrible with a 13.9% BB%. He’s a skinny 6’6” lefty with a starter’s pitch mix, so even at 25 years old there is room for improvement, but it’s a back end starter’s profile right now. 2023 Projection: 2/4.55/1.42/40 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/162 in 165 IP

16) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 23.4 – The 6’3”, 170 pound Cerda has no joke power with a big righty swing that does damage. He hits the ball damn hard and ended up with 24 homers in 124 games split between High-A and Double-A. The hit tool is a major issue though as the power came with a .208 BA and 33.2% K%. Cincy’s current OF is a dumpster fire and there really isn’t any help on the way in the minors, so Cerda is in the perfect organization and ballpark to get the most out of his profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/24/75/.222/.314/.456/5

17) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 17.3 – The 2nd best catcher in the international class, Duno is a power hitting beast in the mold of Diego Cartaya. He’s already built like a man with a strong base (3:25 mark of the video). He’s a good athlete and swings a quick bat. He’s not far off from Ethan Salas, and might have more fantasy upside especially if he stays in Cincy. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 68/27/81/.251/.326/.472/3

18) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 19.1 – Rodriguez is a little guy at 5’8” with a plus hit tool. He hit .359 with a 7.1% K% in rookie ball. There is little to no power projection (3 homers in 49 total games), and he’s not that fast, so it’s not a high upside profile. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/13/63/.278/.332/.411/7

19) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 18.5 – Coming off signing for $2.7 million, Cabrera didn’t exactly stand out in the DSL with only 1 homer, 5 steals, and a mediocre 22.2%/7.2% K%/BB% in 45 games, but it was still good for an above average 108 wRC+. I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t have to pull the rip cord completely too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/20/74/.258/.324/.434/11

20) Carlos Sanchez CIN, 3B/OF, 18.3 – Sanchez was a DSL standout, slashing .355/.505/.442 with 2 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.4%/22% K%/BB%. It was good for a 169 wRC+. There isn’t much info out there on him, but I don’t care what level you’re playing at, if you get on base more than 50% of the time, that is impressive. He’s at least worth being on your radar to see what he can do stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/14/54/.267/.334/.409/8

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Resist the urge to trade down in First Year Player Drafts. With First Year Player Draft season ramping up (my Top 100+ FYPD Rankings are dropping this week), now is the time of year where you are sure to get peppered with tons of, “Hey man, you have interest in trading your 5th overall pick for my 11th and 16th?” Every dynasty manager has that Bill Belichick in them, trying to tinker, strategize, and out smart the competition, but in 99% of dynasty leagues I’ve played in it rarely makes sense to trade down. In most leagues there is a surplus of prospects available anyway. Either they can be picked up freely during the year, or there is a prospect max per team that creates a prospect crunch. Even if those don’t apply to you, you don’t need a million prospects in your system. One gem is worth more than several decent guys. Hold strong in your draft position, dodge all of those shady trade offers, and pick the best available player.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)