April 2023 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on April 24, 2023April 28, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: April 2023 Top 324 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

The prospect world moves fast, and there is already tons of movement in the first Top 300+ Updated Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings of 2023. Off-season rank is in parenthesis. Quick blurbs for every player. Top 20 free here on IBW. Here is the April 2023 Top 300+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (1-157):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

1) (4) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.0 – Buy low on Volpe if you can. He is not far off from exploding into a fantasy beast. He is running like wild with 8 steals and a plus 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed, the 15.9% BB% is elite, and the 87.9 MPH EV with a 16.9 degree launch is respectable. The 30.5% K% is high, but it was much, much better in the minors and that is very likely to come down in the near future. And now with Walker sent down to the minors, he’s my #1 prospect

2) (5) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – It’s not the full on JRod explosion we wanted to see, but considering Walker’s 20 years old and completely skipped over Tripe-A, the MLB debut ain’t bad at all with a 90/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, 25.6% K%, and 101 wRC+. There is plenty to improve upon, namely the 3.8% BB% and 2.7 degree launch, but he’s laying a pretty solid foundation right now Update: Walker got sent down which is the right move if they didn’t want to play him everyday

3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.9 – Say hello to the new top dog once Walker and Volpe officially graduate. Lawlar has a 24.1%/17.2% K%/BB% with 3 homers, and 6 steals in 20 games at Double-A. .233 BABIP is the biggest issue which has led to a .217 BA. It’s the right mix of safety and upside, and he’s now doing it in the upper minors

4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Showing some inexperience at Double-A with a 27.9%/5.9% K%/BB% in 15 games, but he’s still knocked out 3 homers and 2 steals with an almost average 98 wRC+. One of those homers came off Eury Perez

5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – Italian Lunch is powering up this year with big time EV readings that he didn’t show last year. He’ll Vinnie P the majors when he gets the chance

6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Complete across the board domination at Single-A with a 223 wRC+ in 13 games. It already earned him a promotion to High-A/ He’s on a beeline for the top prospect in the game

7) (6) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Debuted a few days ago and has a 53.8% K% in 3 games. We’re back

8) (14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Hasn’t immediately ascended to ace status in his MLB debut with a 5.12 ERA in 19.1 IP, but he’s showing huge stuff with a 96.5 MPH fastball and is missing bats with a 28.7 K%. I’m not gonna lie, I like it better when pitching prospects come in and dominate from the jump, but the signs still point to an explosion in the near future

9) (35) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – As opposed to Grayson, this is exactly what you want to see from a top pitching prospect debut. 2.61 ERA with a 42.5%/5% K%/BB% in 10.1 IP. The plus 95.8 MPH fastball is dominating with a 28.9% whiff%, .206 xwOBA, and 49.1% usage. He’s also proving the secondaries will play against MLB competition. It’s a full on MLB breakout, and I was close to putting him over Rodriguez

10) (9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – 20.5%/17.9% K%/BB% with a 86.5 MPH EV and 27.9 ft/sec sprint is kinda backing up the better in real life than fantasy tag many gave him this off-season. But the .375 xwOBA is almost elite, and if anything, he’s a buy for me

11) (163) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – As I discussed in Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: Mailbag! Edition on Friday, there is no reason not to treat Outman’s breakout like it’s real. Locking in young MLB core pieces is what the game of dynasty is all about. The high 28.2% K% still makes him high risk, but that is why he isn’t ranked even higher. This ranking does seem a bit crazy, but are you really dealing Outman right now for anything less than this? And you can arguably go even higher than this on him

12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann is a low arm slot slinging lefty who has been off the charts since spring. He has a 55.6%/7.4% K%/BB% in 6.2 IP at Double-A as he’s been babied a bit coming back from “minor” shoulder soreness. If not for the shoulder hiccup, he would probably be my top pitching prospect

13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Power might be ticking up with 3 homers in 12 games at Double-A (although the hard hit rate still isn’t great), and the plate approach is still elite with a 18.6%/22% K%/BB%. The high floor profile with speed and emerging power is hard to argue against now that he’s proving it in the upper minors

14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.7 – 25.5%/7.3% K%/BB% with a 102 wRC+ in 13 games at High-A. You always gotta be a little cautious with the hit tool on guys this big

15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.3 – Dominguez is starting to look like a streaky player. After destroying spring, he’s off to a cold start at Double-A with a 66 wRC+, but his .091 BABIP is silly low. He’ll get hot

16) (11) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – Veen is another BABIP victim with a .188 BABIP, but the 18.4%/14.3% K%/BB% looks great. The hits will start dropping, I’m not moving off him

17) (15) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Hasn’t exactly been insanely dominant with a 3.21 ERA and 29.8%/8.8% K%/BB% in 14 IP at Double-A, but the stuff, size, and age relative to level all scream ace upside

18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – Continues to ramp up from the elbow injury and will start to throw on back to back days. Not out of the woods yet, but so far, so good

19) (20) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – 8.2% BB% is the most important stat, because he’ll perform well as long he doesn’t lose his control, and he’s doing just that with a 3.09 ERA in 23.1 IP

20) (17) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Called up to the majors so he can play sporadically, which is the recipe for struggles (10 wRC+ in 27 PA)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 24, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week!

The first Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings Week of 2023 is here! I go over 300 deep and there will be a quick blurb for everyone. There has already been tons of action and tons of movement within the rankings. First part of the rankings will drop later today or tom morning at the latest with more coming all week. Come and check it all out!

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 300+ APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Posted on April 17, 2023April 23, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/17/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/17/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 300 PROSPECTS RANKINGS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – My 3rd overall FYPD prospect got the call to the bigs on Saturday, and his proximity to the majors was a major reason for his high ranking. Here is what I wrote about him in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “Neto is a fast moving, relatively safe bat who will contribute in every category. He’s one of those picks where he’ll quickly be contributing for LA and you’ll be scratching your head on why you just didn’t scoop this guy. LA has literally kept the SS position open for him.” He’s currently 0 for 8, and I’m not gonna lie, even I’m surprised they called him up already. I assumed he would be a candidate for a 2nd half callup and thought I was aggressive in even thinking that. To call him up already is kinda nuts, but let’s get crazy. He’s not the type to win you any one category, but he’ll contribute in all of them.

Ryan Clifford HOU, OF, 19.9 – Let’s keep the FYPD theme going by checking in on my top later round target, Ryan Clifford. He went 0 for 5 yesterday, but that is just a small blip on his otherwise great start to the year. He’s slashing .357/.550/.500 with 1 homer and a 25%/22.5% K%/BB% in 8 games at Single-A. It’s good for a 203 wRC+. He’s setting up to be George Valera 2.0 and is backing up my high ranking of him in the early going.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – 2 for 4 with a 107.5 MPH double and 106 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara. Carroll is officially living up to the hype with a .288 BA, 4 homers, 6 steals, and a .842 OPS in 60 PA. He has the underlying numbers to back it up too, other than not walking a single time yet, but he was a walk machine in the minors, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a truly elite dynasty asset and should not be traded for anything less than a monstrous return.

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – Baty finally got the call and will make his season debut today against the Dodgers. It’s a complete head scratcher on why he didn’t break camp with the team to begin with, but better late than never. He played angry at Triple-A with 5 homers, a 21.4%/16.7% K%/BB% and 239 wRC+ in 9 games, and he’s the type of advanced hitter that could hit the ground running in the majors

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 hit, 5/2 K/BB vs. LAA. Despite only 5 K’s, he put up a 33% whiff% on the back of his slider which dominated with a 65% whiff%. The sinker hasn’t been quite as big this year with it down 1.5 MPH to 93.8 MPH, but he got it up to 96.8 MPH, so there is more in the tank when he needs it. Most importantly, he looks fully healthy coming off off-season hip surgery and I think the best is yet to come as he gets further away from that injury. He’s a buy for me, ranking 194th overall on the Updated Top 432 April Dynasty Baseball Rankings that just hit the Patreon last week.

Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 23.9 – 6.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH and he put up a 21% whiff% overall. He hasn’t gone full breakout like we hoped, but there is a clear uptick in stuff, and with it, an uptick in strikeout upside. If he continues to command his stuff like he did yesterday, the full breakout could still be in the cards.

Kumar Rocker TEX, RHP, 23.4 – Rocker had his 2nd straight dominant outing, going 3 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 4/1 K/BB at High-A. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 12/1 K/BB in 8 IP. The mid 90’s high fastball followed by the fall off the table slider has befuddled lower minors hitters. While that is what he should do against inferior competition, it’s still nice to see coming off the poor AFL and his shoulder issues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 23.2 – 4 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. Woo hinted at going full breakout in the AFL, and he’s now carrying it over into Double-A with a 2.25 ERA and 12/2 K/BB in 8 IP over 2 outings. He has such an easy delivery, almost nonchalantly flinging a mid to upper 90’s rising fastball that minor league hitters have no shot at. The secondaries aren’t quite as refined and he doesn’t have pinpoint control, which probably keeps him more in the mid-rotation range, but it’s easily a Top 100 prospect profile and is worth a pick up in any size league.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. CHW. The fastball sat 96.2 MPH and he put up a 27% whiff% on the back of his changeup (47% whiff%). He hasn’t pitched all that well with a 6.91 ERA in 14.1 IP, but everything is still pointing towards a breakout when he gets his footing. Big stuff. 5 pitch mix. Missing bats. It’s only a matter of time.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – The power was the final tool we were waiting for, and we aren’t waiting anymore as Carter jacked his 3rd homer in 5 games at Double-A. He now has a 204 wRC+ in 9 games. The 25% K% is a little higher than optimal, but he’s still running a .389 BA. He’s locking in his at least average to above average across the board profile, and there is legit star upside if it truly all comes together.

Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.8 – Black is going gangbusters at Double-A after cracking his 2nd homer last night. He’s now slashing .286/.483/.619 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.8%/20.7% K%/BB% in 7 games. If the power is truly ticking up, he’s going to be mighty dangerous because the hit tool, plate approach, and speed are all certainly there. He’s an early season riser.

Luis Garcia WAS, 2B/SS, 22.10 – 1 for 4 with a 107.7 MPH bomb for his 2nd homer in 3 games. The underlying numbers are hinting that Garcia might be leveling up with a 90.3 MPH EV and 7.1% K% in 42 PA, which is easy to buy into considering he’s still only 22 years old. It’s not a full breakout as the 2.8 degree launch and 4.8% BB% still isn’t great, but at least he might be entering usable territory.

AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.4 – 4.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB in his season debut at High-A. The big stuff is unquestioned with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, so seeing the good control is huge. If he keeps it up for a few more starts, his value will absolutely skyrocket.

Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB at Double-A. He’s yet to give up a run in 2 outings with 0 ER and a 13/6 K/BB in 9 IP. It’s probably mid-rotation upside with some reliever risk, but this is no doubt explosive MLB stuff.

Justin Lange NYY, RHP, 21.7 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/2 K/BB at Single-A. It’s Lange’s 2nd straight gem and he now has 2 ER with a 17/2 K/BB in 10 IP. The stuff is very legit too with a 95.2 MPH sinker and a 5 pitch mix which put up a 53% whiff%. He’s also 6’4”, 220 pounds. His control was horrible in 2021 and 2022, and it’s still a small sample this year, but Lange is checking a whole lot of boxes right now.

Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 23.9 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB at Double-A. It’s his 2nd strong outing after he missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tampa is a wizard at developing pitching, and Wilcox looks next in line to really start popping.

Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.6 – Davis crushed his 2nd homer in 8 games at Double-A out to right centerfield. Just check out that video, the dude is an absolute tank. He’s battled injuries in his young pro career, but he looks healthy this year with a 150 wRC+ and 15.4%/17.9% K%/BB%.

Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke got on the board for his first homer at Double-A with a line drive pull shot that cleared the fence in a hurry. He’s clearly been tinkering with his batting stance, starting with his hands higher this year. He now has a 153 wRC+ in 8 games, but most of it is on the back of a 25% BB% as his .231 BA and .385 SLG isn’t great. He’s still a solid prospect, but without the true plus hit tool, it’s not a high upside profile.

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Marsh continues to lock in his breakout status, going 4 for 6 with a double. He’s always hit the ball hard and had speed, so the improved hit tool and plate approach with a 24%/10% K%/BB% is leading the charge. He jumped from 422nd to 295th on the Updated Top 433 Dynasty Rankings.

Bryson Stott PHI, 2B/SS, 25.6 – Stott went 3 for 7 with his first homer of the year and is having a huge start to the year with a .380 BA, but the underlying numbers aren’t buying it. The .277 xwOBA is well below average and the 23.6%/1.4% K%/BB% isn’t good. I’m not buying that this a true breakout and he could be a good sell high if someone is really buying into it.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 4.2 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 9/1 K/BB at Triple-A. Allen has been on point in 3 outings this year with a 1.26 ERA and 34.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 14.1 IP, which is good to see after he got hit up at Triple-A last year. It’s still likely a back end profile with a low 90’s fastball, and there is a lot of super talented competition for future Cleveland rotation spots.

Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – Varland was my first “full breakout alert” and “major prospect buy” of the season back on the April 8th Dynasty Rundown, and it didn’t take long to pay off at all as he more than held his own versus the Yankees in Yankee Stadium on Friday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 3 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB. The fastball was up 2.4 MPH to 96.2 MPH and he put up a 28% whiff% with a 4 pitch mix. As I wrote after his first Triple-A start in that Rundown, the uptick in stuff takes his upside to a whole other level. He was already sent back down because Minnesota’s rotation is jam packed, but he’s still a major buy long term.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 10, 2023April 13, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 433 April 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon and the full Top 433 has now been completed. Quick blurbs for almost everyone, off-season rankings are in parenthesis, and the Top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 433 April 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-9 MILD PREDICTIONS FOR 2023 ROOKIES
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.10 – 0 steals. What a disappointment

2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Not regressing from his breakout rookie year with a .283 BA, 2 homers and 4 steals. And it doesn’t even feel like he’s gotten hot yet.

3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – The launch angle hasn’t bounced back yet with a 4.9 degree launch, but his .434 xwOBA is back to being elite

Shadow3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9

4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker somehow still feels underrated in the baseball world. Off to an elite start with a .454 xwOBA and 2 steals

5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – .979 OPS. The hand issue proved to be overblown

6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – He has a .399 xBA and a .439 BA. Launch angle still isn’t optimal at 8.2 degrees, but he’s a beast no matter how you slice it

7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – There might actually be a buy low window here with a slow start coming off a poor 2nd half. Everything in the underlying numbers shows he is still elite, but his low launch angle does cap his homer upside a bit

8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – 1.194 OPS. He didn’t get lazy coming off the huge contract.

9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Played generally well in spring and now has a 1.012 OPS in 4 games at Triple-A. It sure seems like he will hit the ground running when his suspension is up

10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – 95.4 MPH EV with 4 homers and a 1.084 OPS. With steals easier to come by, I might be leaning towards a masher like him earlier

11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Carrying over insane finish to 2022 into 2023 with a .996 OPS and .490 xwOBA. He’s yet to steal a bag though coming off only 13 steals last year, and it’s definitely a thought that he might not be a huge base stealer

12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – The breakout is here with 4 homers, a 90.5 MPH EV and a 16.8 degree launch

13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – 21.1% K%, 98.4 MPH FB/LD EV (which was his issue last year), and 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s going to be fine. Don’t sell low and try to buy if you can.

14) (11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – Rough start everywhere you look with 0 homers, a 29.3% K% and a 28.3 ft/sec sprint (30+ his entire career). His track record is too long to worry at this point, but maybe unlike Judge, he did get lazy with the big contract?

15) (12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – 0 homers with an 86.5 MPH EV is not what you want to see coming off off-season thumb surgery. Too early to panic, but it’s not like there is completely no reason to point to for why he is off to a slow power start

16) (15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – 92.5 MPH EV with a 20%/8% K%/BB% overshadows the .541 OPS

17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – Just hasn’t got hot yet. .830 OPS and underlying numbers look good

18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.4 – Continues to lock in his K% gains with a career best 16.3% K%. He’s also jacked 5 homers already

19) (27) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.8 – Saying the back looks good is an understatement with a 1.234 OPS and .535 xwOBA.

20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Started to take live batting practice and is expected back in June

21) (20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.11 – September shoulder injury looks to be behind him with a career high 97.4 MPH fastball. With Burnes struggling, he moves into my top pitcher slot

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 10, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week!

The first Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week of 2023 is here on the Patreon, and while it’s early, decisions still have to be made on trades and pickups/drops. We’ve seen the seeds of breakouts start to sprout on more than a few players already. The first part of the rankings will drop later today (or tom morning latest) and will be completed by Friday. Catch you in a little …

Click here to join the Patreon for the Updated Dynasty Rankings along with so so so much more content

-Halp

Posted on April 3, 2023April 3, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/3/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES ALL SEASON
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-9 MILD PREDICTIONS FOR 2023 ROOKIES
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-2023 FYPD STRATEGY &TARGET GUIDE

Trent Grisham SDP, OF, 26.5 – It looked like Grisham’s power was leveling up in spring, and it’s now transferring into the regular season with him destroying a 107.4 MPH, 419 foot bomb out to centerfield for his first of the year. He now has a 97.6 MPH EV in 11 batted balls to go along with a .948 OPS. I said it in spring, but even a modest power uptick would do wonders for his flyball heavy profile. It wouldn’t be the first time someone had a mid 20’s power breakout, and Grisham wasn’t coming from that low of a starting point to begin with. He’s a definite contender to be one of 2023’s big breakouts and is an early season buy for me.

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – The big breakout is percolating and it just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Franco went 2 for 3 with a double and is now 7 for 11 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 7.7%/15.4% K%/BB%. He has a 91.3 MPH EV and a 11.9 degree launch. It’s obviously silly early, but he has the kind of generational baseball talent that makes a silly good season well within the realm of possibility. My mind is telling me it’s still too early, but my body, my body’s telling me yes (on 2nd thought, maybe I shouldn’t be quoting R. Kelly lyrics 🙂

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s. He’s now hitting .154 with a 42.9% K% in 14 PA. Kelenic pulled the ole’ Spring rope a dope on us once again.

Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 30.7 – I named Springs a player to target back on September 26th in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets, because not only did I suspect his hype would rise the more the off-season went along (it did), but also because of just how good he is. He proved it in his first start of the season, going 6 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 12/1 K/BB. A start like that will close just about any buy window that might have still been open.

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. Ashcraft is another IBW favorite and a Starting Pitcher Target who started to get more people jumping on the bandwagon towards the end of the off-season. He only notched a 21% whiff% in this one, which isn’t super encouraging, but he can breakout even without a true strikeout explosion because of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. Even a modest K uptick could have him putting up some Framber Valdez-lite type seasons.

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – Don’t shoot the messenger, but despite India’s hot start (he went 2 for 4 yesterday and has a 1.356 OPS in 13 PA), I’m concerned he still only has an 83.1 MPH EV. He showed in 2021 he can have a big year without having a huge average EV, but your margin of error gets a lot smaller. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I wouldn’t just start valuing him as if he was back quite yet.

Chris Bassitt TOR, RHP, 34.1 – 3.1 IP, 10 hits, 9 ER, 0/0 K/BB vs. St. Louis. Bassitt was taking it sooooo easy during spring training with his velocity down like 4 MPH, he never even bothered to truly get prepared for the regular season. This is what happens when you don’t prepare. His velocity was up from spring, but was still down 1.7 MPH to 91.1 MPH. I suspect that will continue to rise over the next month and as he basically uses April to truly ramp up. This is the same thing that happened with Manoah in his first start of the season. Definitely don’t sell low on either, but both should maybe consider actually using spring training to be ready for Opening Day.

Mike Clevinger CHW, RHP, 32.3 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB. The fastball was up 1.1 MPH to 94.7 MPH and he put up a 30% whiff% overall. Many pitchers don’t fully return to health until their 2nd year back from Tommy John, and it looks like Clevinger is taking that path.

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. Miami. The fastball sat 96.8 MPH and the ghost fork put up a 64% whiff%. He likely got a bit fortunate with a 93.3 MPH EV against, and the fastball in particular was very hittable with 0 whiffs, but this was a very encouraging first start. Big stuff. Missed bats. Good pitching line.

Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 22.11 – Gorman is carrying over his hot spring into the regular season, smashing 2 homers yesterday at 105.2 MPH and 104.4 MPH. He now has a 1.726 OPS in 13 PA. In my 3/28/23 Spring Dynasty Rundown I wrote that “Jordan Walker’s blinding hype has made everyone forget that Nolan Gorman was once upon a time labeled the next big slugger for the Cardinals,” and I kept the faith on him in my Top 1,000, ranking him 182nd overall. I’m buying the breakout, and is an early “buy high” candidate before it becomes even more obvious.

Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B/OF, 26.3 – Donovan was another player who I was buying into all of March due to his excellent spring, and the regular season hasn’t slowed him down at all. He smoked his 2nd homer of the year in just 3 games after hitting only 5 in 126 games in 2022. He’s for real.

Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4/Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 24.6/ Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – – St. Louis’ biggest problem is that they are too damn good at development. There is no where for all of these guys to play. Burleson had a huge day at the dish, going 3 for 4 with a 2 doubles and a homer. Dylan Carlson also went 3 for 4, while Jordan Walker went 1 for 3 with a double. The “problem” will eventually work itself out, but until then, everyone might be getting some extra rest here and there.

Xander Bogaerts SDP, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts ripped his 2nd homer of the season with a 413 foot shot and now has a 1.471 OPS in 17 PA. He could end up being a good example of just not overthinking things too much. Sure the underlying numbers weren’t great last year, and sure he got a big ballpark downgrade, but the guy has been an all star caliber ballplayer for years now and is only 30. You want to keep betting proven talent.

Noah Syndergaard LAD, RHP, 30.7 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB vs. ARI. The velocity uptick didn’t come with a 92.7 MPH sinker, but that doesn’t mean LA still won’t work their magic. Missing bats is the most important thing, and he missed bats in this one with a 29% whiff% on the back of his changeup (60% whiff%). I was buying once he signed with LA, and I’m still buying.

Tyler Anderson LAA, LHP, 33.3 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB vs. OAK. LA’s magic pixie dust might just have some staying power, or maybe it was just going against Oakland’s terrible lineup that did the trick. I think I could throw up some zero’s against their rag tag crew of misfits.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.6 – Colas said he wanted to get more frisky on the bases, and he put his money where his mouth is stealing his first MLB bag. He went 2 for 5 with a double and is now 5 for 14 on the season. The power hasn’t come yet, but we know it’s in there.

Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung cracked his first homer of the year on a 1 for 3 with 0 K day. The 30.8% K% is still higher than you would like to see, but it’s only 3 games and he’s walking too with a 15.4% BB%.

Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 27.10 – Moncada has come back from the graveyard to get off to a screaming start. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and connected on his 2nd homer of the year going the opposite way. He now has a 1.418 OPS in 19 PA. The 36.8%/5.3% K%/BB% still scares me, and so does his very inconsistent track record. I’m going to need to see a lot more to really buy in.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.1 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 6/4 K/BB vs. ATL. The stuff was excellent as usual with his fastball sitting 94.8 MPH and putting up a 33% whiff% overall, but the control issues are still scary. He came away unscathed in this one, but he’ll get scathed in the future if he can’t meaningfully improve his control.

Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 24.8 – 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. WAS. This is why I really wasn’t buying in super hard on Shuster. Washington has a AAAA lineup, but the stuff just isn’t big enough to consistently dominate. The fastball only sat 90.1 MPH and it got destroyed with a 96.3 MPH EV against. He’ll be better than this, but I don’t see big upside here.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 21.4 – Soderstrom has been a power hitting beast the second he stepped into pro ball, and it’s scary that the power might actually be leveling up now. He decimated his first homer of the year at Triple-A with a 466 foot, 113.5 MPH bomb. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and the aforementioned homer and is now 5 for 9 on the season. Oakland’s lineup is a joke and they have been fast tracking Soderstrom since last year. He’s going to be the middle of the order bat that Oakland so desperately needs, and it might happen sooner rather than later.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.2 – I named O’Hoppe the most underrated prospect catcher in baseball before the 2022 season, and his stock has just continued to soar since then. He cracked his first MLB homer and is now 4 for 10 with 0 K’s and a 93.2 MPH EV in 11 batted balls. Power. Contact. I didn’t understand why he was so underrated in the first place. He won’t be underrated for much longer.

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – It’s only a matter of time until Manzardo kicks the door down, and that door is starting to splinter after taking his first whack at it yesterday. He utterly unloaded for his first homer of the year with a 107.4 MPH bullet at Triple-A. He’s only 2 for 12 to start the year, but that isn’t going to last long.

Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1/Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – – Westburg and Norby are trying to kick the door down themselves, but Baltimore has built a wall of veterans to block their way. Westburg smoked a 106.7 MPH dinger off Luis Patino for his first of the year at Triple-A, and Norby hit his 2nd of the year at 100.2 MPH. Neither of them had any troubles in the upper minors in 2022, and I’m expecting smooth sailing in 2023 as well.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.6 – Pfaadt’s reward for clearly winning Arizona’s 5th starter job was to get sent down to the pitching hell hole that is Reno, and he got smacked up in his first start back, going 3.2 IP with 6 hits, 5 ER and 7/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 94.2 MPH, and the K/BB numbers were on point, so I wouldn’t be concerned at all, but he didn’t deserve this. With Mad Bum currently experiencing arm fatigue, hopefully he doesn’t have to stay there long.

Jhony Brito NYY, RHP, 25.2 – The unheralded Brito came out of nowhere to pitch a gem, going 5 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. SF. The fastball sat 95.6 MPH and the changeup was his most used pitch, putting up a 50% whiff%. He used a 5 pitch mix to utterly dominate in every facet. The K rate wasn’t high in the upper minors, but he kept the ball on the ground and had a 2.96 ERA in 112.2 IP. He’s certainly worthy of a pick up at the least, although the Yanks sent him back down because they don’t need a fifth starter for a little while.

Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B, 23.10 – Gonzales had a sneaky good spring training (.962 OPS), and now he’s carrying it over into Triple-A with his first homer at 105.9 MPH. Even in a “bad” year in 2022, the guy still had a 127 wRC+ at Double-A. Bae is getting his shot at 2B at the moment, but if he doesn’t produce, Gonzales won’t be far behind.

Bo Naylor CLE, C, 23.1 – Put one up on the big board for Naylor too as he went 2 for 5 with a double and a homer. It’s only a matter of time before he takes over the starting catcher job from Zunino, or at least a large share of it.

Nick Loftin KC, SS/2B/OF, 24.6/Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – It’s a fringe festival in Kansas City, and there is no reason Loftin and Taylor can’t join the parade soon. They each cracked their first homers of the year at Triple-A, and Taylor in particular is off to an exciting start with 2 steals and a 200 wRC+ in 3 games. Both have fantasy friendly upsides worthy of taking fliers on when they do get the call.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 24.11/Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 24.7 – The Blocked Brothers both connected for dingers at Triple-A yesterday. It was Toglia’s first and Jones third of the year. I’m not even going to pretend to know when/if Colorado plans on giving these guys their shot.

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.9 – Morel is about to bludgeon Triple-A pitching, and he’s already begun with his first dinger at 106.4 MPH. He now has a 212 wRC+ in the early going, but of course it still comes with a high 33.3% K%. He doesn’t have to be Wander Franco to breakout, he just needs to take one step forward with his hit tool to be a beast, and I think he will.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)