June 2023 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 26, 2023June 29, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/26/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/26/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 331 JUNE DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (6/29/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/27/23)

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.9 – Elly who? Little Matty McLain, all 5’11”, 180 pounds of him is having a historic rookie season himself after going 4 for 5 with 4 extra base hits yesterday. He notched a 104.1 MPH double, 102.2 MPH homer, 101.8 MPH double, and a 94.5 MPH double. He’s now slashing .325/.380/.541 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 26.9%/6.4% K%/BB% in 37 games. The underlying numbers don’t look quite as nice as the surface stats (.338 xwOBA), but they are still mighty enticing with a 12.6% barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV, 12.8 degree launch, 25.2% whiff%, and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. That is a combination for a fantasy difference maker, and it’s high time McLain starts to get talked about with the most exciting young players in the game. He ranked 115th overall on the June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and that ranking is set to rise in next week’s July update.

Luis Lara MIL, OF, 18.7 – All the fun rookie ball breakouts had us starting to forget about Lara, but he had a “remember me” shot yesterday for his 2nd homer in 38 games at Single-A. Not only hasn’t he slowed down from his hot start to the year, he’s taken it up a notch in June, slashing .396/.500/.528 with 1 homer, 7 steals, and a 9/11 K/BB in his last 14 games. The plate approach is straight elite, the speed is plus, and he doesn’t have any major groundball issues (37.5% GB%), so he should get the most out of his raw power at peak. He ranked 74th overall on the Updated Top 331 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week.

Ezequiel Duran TEX, 3B/2B/OF, 24.1 – 2 for 4 with 2 doubles at 110.7 MPH and 99.9 MPH. Duran is a major target for me and is the perfect buy high candidate. He’s been doing his best Adolis Garcia impression all year with power (91.1 MPH EV with 9 homers), speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint with 4 steals) and a mediocre plate approach (24.1%/4.2% K%/BB%) in 58 games. He’s an electric player and has legitimately near elite fantasy upside. You will definitely have to pay up for him, but his value hasn’t cemented yet to where he will be impossible to acquire. I would go after him.

Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.2 – Perez is starting to separate himself from the exciting young pitcher pack, and is now entering true ace territory. He went 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and 9/1 K/BB vs. Pitt yesterday for his 5th scoreless outing in his last 6 starts. The fastball sat 97.9 MPH and the slider notched a 60% whiff%. He now has a 1.34 ERA with a 29.2%/8.1% K%/BB% in 47 IP. He will be on a strict innings cap with a career high of 78 IP, so he might not be able to carry your fantasy rotation for the rest of the season, but at only 20 years old, there are many years of dominance on the horizon. He’ll rise into the Top 50 overall on next week’s dynasty rankings.

Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.9 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 12/1 K/BB vs. KCR. The fastball sat 96.6 MPH and he put up a 58% whiff% overall. This was Glasnow’s best start of the season and is reminder that he has the type of strikeout upside that only Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom can even come close to matching. Even with him still shaking the rust off from Tommy John surgery, his 35.2% K% is 3rd best amongst starters with over 30 IP behind the aforementioned Strider and deGrom. I’ll take the injury risk for that type of strikeout upside.

Mason Black SFG, RHP, 23.5 – 4.1 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Black is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospects with an absolutely electric fastball from a funky righty arm angle. He combines that with a damn good slider and changeup as well. This was his 4th straight scoreless outing in a row to bring his season ERA down to 4.00 with a 29.7%/9% K%/BB% in 54 IP. He does look a bit reliever-ish and he’s pitched in mostly short outings, so there is bullpen risk, but I would go after him regardless.

Royce Lewis MIN, 3B/SS, 24.0 – Lewis is becoming a tough one to evaluate. After going 3 for 4 last night, the surface stats look great, slashing .333/.357/.506 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 26.2%/3.6% K%/BB% in 22 games, but the underlying numbers don’t look as good. He has a 86.8 MPH EV, 8.8 degree launch, .295 xwOBA, and a 30.3% whiff%. Not necessarily the best combination there. The good news is that the 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed shows the knee feels good, and it’s still too small of a sample to really pick apart the underlying numbers. I’m betting on the talent and think the underlying numbers will catch up with the surface stats, but the mediocre underlying numbers definitely points towards having some level of caution before flying him up rankings.

Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Ranking Coby Mayo 8th overall on my Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon) back in February was one of my boldest calls, and he’s fulfilled my prophesy with an absolutely devastating season at Double-A. He’s homered in 6 of his last 11 games and is now slashing .313/.432/.609 with 14 homers and a 24.3%/14.9% K%/BB% in 67 games on the season. His 178 wRC+ leads all qualified hitters at Double-A. The dude is an absolute beast and is setting up to be one the premier power hitters in baseball for years to come.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.2 – Ramos got a late start to the season because of a groin strain, and he’s just now finding his groove at Double-A. He showed off his easy power yesterday blasting one out to centerfield, and he now has a 1.077 OPS with 4 homers in his last 9 games. He has a 126 wRC+ in 21 games at the level on the year. He’s been a favorite of mine for awhile now, and he’s proving it in the upper minors. He’s still underrated.

Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter returned from a minor wrist injury and has done nothing but rip homers since, cracking his 3rd homer in his last 7 games. It sure seems like the power outage after his early season power binge was at least partly due to the bum wrist, but that’s all in the past now. He still doesn’t project as a monster power guy, but he doesn’t have to be with plus speed and a plus plate approach. He’s an elite dynasty prospect.

Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.1 – The Roman Anthony breakout sure seems to have arrived. He went out and got a pitch on the outside corner to smoke his 4th homer in 11 games since getting called up to High-A. He’s barely 19 years old. He’s a smooth operator at the plate with a loose, athletic, and powerful lefty swing that is so easy to dream on. The recent power explosion combines with a mature plate approach and plus speed. His value is exploding.

Kala’i Rosario MIN, OF, 20.11 – Rosario launched his 12th homer in 62 games at High-A, and he has done nothing but mash homers since mid May, slashing .288/.409/.610 with 11 homers and a 34/22 K/BB in his last 32 games. He’s built like a rock and the power is no joke. He rose to 132nd overall on the Updated Top 331 Prospects Rankings.

Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 110.3 MPH double, 99.9 MPH single, and an 88.8 MPH single. Thomas returned to the majors a man possessed, slashing .400/.400/.640 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 4/0 K/BB in 25 PA. I named him a target back in April, but I moved off him after he got sent back down, and he’s proving I should have stayed patient. He gets the bat on the ball (20.9% K%), hits it fairly hard (89.5 MPH EV) and is fast (28.5 ft/sec sprint). Good things tends to happen on a baseball field with those combination of skills. The upside might not be super high, but I’m back in on him.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.3 – 5 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 9/2 K/BB vs. SDP. Just call him MacKenzie “inconsistent” Gore. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH and the slider put up a 40% whiff%. He’s been alternating gems like this with mediocrity all season and it’s resulted in a 3.89 ERA and 28.5%/9.9% K%/BB% in 85.2 IP. Inconsistency is likely just a part of his profile like Blake Snell, and like Snell, the upswings mostly make the down turns stomachable.

Jairo Iriarte SDP, RHP, 21.5 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 10/0 K/BB at High-A. This was Iriarte’s best start of the season which puts an exclamation point on his breakout year. He now has a 2.95 ERA with a 29.7%/11.2% K%/BB% in 55 IP. He has the big stuff to back up the numbers with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider, and a good changeup too. Control is still issue, but Iriarte is legitimately exciting and continues to climb up rankings.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.8 – It took a minute, but Colas is finally having his first real heater of the season. He smoked his 3rd homer in 2 games and now has a .968 OPS in his last 11 games. Chicago’s RF job is still waiting for him, and he could be on tap for his 2nd chance against big league pitching, and my guess is that he will be better the 2nd time around.

Thomas Saggese TEX, 2B/3B, 21.2 – Saggese has very quietly been hitting up Double-A, and that continued yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a double and 0 K’s. He’s now slashing .312/.372/.502 with 10 homers, 6 steals, and a 22%/8.5% K%/BB% in 67 games. He doesn’t have the biggest power/speed combo, but the guy can clearly hit, and it’s not like the power/speed combo is non existent. He deserves some more hype.

Nathan Martorella SDP, 1B, 22.3 – Martorella continued his dominance at High-A with his 12th homer in 68 games. Italian Snack is just waiting for the callup to Double-A to have his Vinnie Pasquantino/Kyle Manzardo-like come up on prospect lists with plus power and a mature plate approach (17.7%/15.3% K%/BB%).

Tanner Schobel MIN, SS/2B, 21.11 – The power has arrived as Schobel went deep for the 4th time in 4 games yesterday. He was already displaying a strong plate approach (19.6%/10% K%/BB%) and speed (9 steals), so the power breakout is big to see and firmly puts him on the radar for all league sizes. He has a solid across the board profile and cracked my latest prospects rankings at #246th overall.

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.8 – Jorge went 2 for 5 with a homer and a steal and is now slashing .286/.385/.457 with 5 homers, 25 steals, and a 21.1%/13% K%/BB% in 60 games at Single-A. Seeing the strikeout rate settle in at a very reasonable range is great to see after it rose to 26.6% in rookie ball last year. Just what Cincinnati needs, another exciting infield prospect 😉

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023June 26, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Prospects Week over on the Patreon, and the full Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings are now completed. (Top 25 free here on the Brick Wall). I was super strict with my definition of a prospect in this one again, except with the very recently called up prospects (Matos, Davis, Naylor, Sheehan). May, April, and Off-Season rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the June 2023 Top 331 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

1) (2) (6) (13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.6 – Holliday’s dominating performance as a 19 year old at High-A (166 wRC+ in 44 games) not only makes him the #1 prospect in baseball, it also vaults him into the Top 50 of my Updated Top 456 June Dynasty Baseball Rankings. He’s the best new Holliday since National Pizza Day was invented in the year 2000 … well, at least until Jackson’s younger brother Ethan Holliday hits the scene in 2025

2) (6) (3) (7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.11 – Slashing .369/.424/.655 with 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 13.0%/7.6% K%/BB% in his last 20 games at Double-A. He figured out his contact issues, bringing his K% well out of the danger zone to 24.3% on the season

3) (5) (4) (3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.3 – The 94 wRC+ in 59 games at Double-A is mediocre, but the 9 homers, 19 steals, and a 23.6% K% from a 19 year old is still very exciting

4) (7) (14) (8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.9 – Hit tool is getting exposed at Double-A with a 34.7%/5.3% K%/BB% in 18 games. It’s basically exactly what you didn’t want to see, but he’s only 20, and it’s understandable that there will be an adjustment period

5) (11) (47) (92) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Called up to Double-A and he hasn’t missed a beat with a 19.4%/8.3% K%/BB% and 2 homers in 17 games

6) (18) (23) (25) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.2 – Pete Crow has a chance to be a true fantasy monster with 9 homers (58.4% FB%), 16 steals, and a .280 BA in 48 games at Double-A. The 23.1%/6.7% K%/BB% is mediocre, which keeps him from ranking even higher than this

7) (43) (76) (121) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – He was doing his best Wander Franco impression at Triple-A with elite contact rates, developing power and some speed before earning a call to the majors. He’s yet to strikeout in the bigs with a 0.0%/29.4% K%/BB%, which has led to a .946 OPS in 17 PA, but the 77.2 MPH EV and 27.6 ft/sec sprint speed shows there is some risk that the power/speed combo won’t be huge

8) (8) (36) (58) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.10 – The Triston McKenzie injury moves Williams one step closer to a call-up, even if Cleveland doesn’t decide to turn to him quite yet

9) (NA) (8) (14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.7 – Here is what I wrote about Grayson in my Top 26 Prospects to Stash for 2023 Impact Only on Friday, “Grayson may have finally found his rhythm for the first time all season. He has a 2.50 ERA with a 27/8 K/BB in 18 IP since getting sent back down to Triple-A. Their GM, Mike Elias, was obviously on to something when he talked shit about Grayson in spring training and didn’t have him break camp with the team. It was a continuation of his struggles when he returned in September of last year from a lat strain and didn’t look completely right. Before going down with that injury in 2022, Grayson said it was “hands down the best I’ve ever thrown the baseball in my life.” Pitching is all about rhythm, and the injury threw him off, but it looks like he’s finding it again. I’m sure Baltimore will be patient the second time around, but he’s on the verge on earning a 2nd shot.”

10) (12) (18) (21) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.6 – Has progressed to throwing bullpens which is a very nice hurdle to clear. Without the injury risk, he would be the top pitching prospect in the game, and even with the injury risk he might still deserve that top spot

11) (21) (59) (83) Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.8 – I ranked Davis 2nd overall on Friday’s Stash article, and I absolutely nailed it with him getting the call to the majors. He has the chance to be a true elite hitting catcher who will also get full time at bats with the ability to play in the OF

12) (9) (32) (38) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.2 – Returned from injury and is back to raking with a 1.003 OPS in his last 10 games at Triple-A. Aaron Hicks hot streak complicates his path to playing time

13) (14) (41) (30) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.7 – Doing it all at Double-A with power (8 homers), speed (10 steals) and hit (16.9%/9.9% K%/BB%) in 47 games, but trying to figure out his path to playing time puts my mind in a pretzel

14) (16) (15) (10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.5 – .210 BA and 106 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A doesn’t look great, but the 10 homers, 16 steals, and 26.7%/18.7% K%/BB% shows the fantasy upside. The hit tool is risky, but I’m not passing up on this kind of upside, and keep in mind he’s still only 20 in the upper minors

15) (10) (5) (19) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.11 – Not exactly kicking the door down to Tampa with a 113 wRC+ in 60 games at Triple-A, but his hit/power combo still makes him one of the safest bats in the minors

16) (13) (12) (16) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.10 – He’s considered week to week with biceps inflammation since leaving his last start on May 4th

17) (15) (13) (34) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.9 – Carter’s on the rehab trail from a wrist injury and should return to Double-A soon. The early season power binge proved to be a mirage, but he’s still only 20, so the power uptick could come in time, and his speed should buoy his fantasy profile until it does

18) (37) (88) (97) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.6 – Massively improving his only weakness, like he simply flipped a switch, with a 15.3%/20.4% K%/BB% in his last 20 games. He’s also getting some run in the outfield. The callup has to be coming any day now

19) (17) (22) (48) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.6 – Mayo’s homered in 3 of his last 4 games to bring his season wRC+ at Double-A up to 163. Maybe now he’ll start to get the respect he deserves

20) (19) (31) (31) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.6 – Called up to Double-A and is struggling with a 51 wRC+ in 16 games, but the 3 homers and 21.1%/8.5% K%/BB% shows he will be fine

21) (22) (45) (74) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.3 – What does this man have to do to get the call? Because apparently hitting 17 homers in 62 games at Triple-A isn’t enough

22) (24) (46) (47) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.3 – Ford has the ability to be a near elite dynasty asset, but it doesn’t seem like he gets valued like that. He’s doing it all at High-A with 8 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.3%/18.9% K%/BB% in 59 games

23) (47) (141) (102) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.11 – You guys know I’ve been hyping Williams hard for weeks now. 25.8% K% in his last 38 games is very reasonable considering his plus power (9 homers), speed (11 steals) and plus SS glove in 48 games at High-A. He’s a near elite prospect

24) (23) (44) (44) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.3 – Power hasn’t been optimal with only 4 homers in 54 games at Double-A, but everything else has been great with elite speed (29 steals) and a strong plate approach (21.1%/10.0% K%/BB%)

25) (64) (113) (193) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Made his MLB debut, and while it’s hard to argue against 6 no hit innings, there was one bright red flag. The famed changeup didn’t earn a single whiff. He wouldn’t be the first plus changeup guy to underwhelm in the majors (see, Gavin Stone)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week!

June Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings Week has arrived, and as usual, I will go over 300 deep with blurbs for almost every player. I will be strict with my definition of a prospect except for the super recently called up guys like Sheehan, Naylor, and Henry Davis. And speaking of, I absolutely nailed the Davis callup in Friday’s Stash article, ranking him 2nd overall (I nailed Naylor too, but that one was easier). First part of the rankings will drop later today or tom morning at latest. Catch you then …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)

Posted on June 12, 2023June 16, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/12/23)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 456 JUNE DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (6/16/23)

Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 17.6 – Guanipa is the early favorite to be THE prospect breakout from the DSL. He’s hit in all 4 games and is slashing .333/.368/.778 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.1%/5.3% K%/BB%. It’s still early, but I loved him coming into the season as my #2 international target (Sebastian Walcott was my #1 target), and he received a large signing bonus with the tools to back it up. Sample is still super small and DSL stats are the most untrustworthy, but if you’re shooting for the moon, Guanipa could be your guy.

Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 19.2 – Shim made his pro debut on Saturday and went nuclear, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB in the FCL (stateside rookie ball). He has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds, and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid 90’s heat. The curve is his best secondary, and he backed up his scouting report in his first outing showing good control. The ingredients are most certainly here for him to truly explode. At the minimum, keep a close watch on him, and it might be worth scooping him now.

Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.7 – Here’s what I wrote about Arroyo in my Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Prospects Rankings (Patreon), ranking him 14th overall:

“Upside – Gabriel Gonzalez

Downside – The plus hit tool slides more towards above average, and he doesn’t have the explosive tools to make up for it

Prime Projection: 82/18/73/.273/.339/.435/6″ …

The upside is winning out with him slashing .636/.692/.909 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 7.7%/7.5% K%/BB% in 4 games at stateside rookie. It’s a repeat of what he did in the DSL, and it sure looks like he will follow in Gabriel Gonzalez’ footsteps as a plus to double plus hit tool riser.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – Carroll rose all the way to 3rd overall on the Updated Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped Friday on the Patreon, and he didn’t let the high ranking go to his head, smacking 3 more hits on Sunday at 109.8 MPH (single), 107.4 MPH (triple), and 103.6 MPH (double). He also stole his 19th bag. He’s on pace to go .308/32/47 on the season with the underlying numbers to back it up. Only Ohtani (#1) and Acuna (#2) can match this type of production …

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – … don’t let Franco hear me say that, because he would have every right to take that personally. He went 2 for 4 with a 371 foot bullet shot for his for his 8th homer of the year. He’s also stolen 22 bags in 63 games, which takes his elite hit tool profile with improving power to the next level. An 88.2 MPH EV with a 8 degree launch makes his power a little shakier than some of the other elite options, which keeps him 6th overall on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.11 – Gunnar went 3 for 5 with a 113.8 MPH, 462 foot rocket, and all of a sudden his season numbers are starting to look pretty damn good with his OPS over .800 at .804. Over his last 15 games he’s slashing .354/.404/.729 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 13/4 K/BB. He’s finally starting to run more and also get the strikeouts in check. I mean, he ain’t Corbin Carroll, that ship has sailed, but I hope you bought low when you could

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.5 – Are you even allowed to write an article about baseball without mentioning Elly De La Cruz? Dude is the talk of the town and his elite athleticism has started to transcend just baseball circles. He collected 2 more hits yesterday, one of which came at 109.7 MPH. That’s a weakly hit dribbler for Elly. He also stole his 3rd bag. He’s now slashing .364/.481/.636 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 37%/18.5% K%/BB% in 27 PA. The K% is high, but the 33.3% whiff% isn’t quite in the cover your eyes territory, and he’s walking a ton too. It’s just about as good of an MLB debut as we could have hoped for. He ranked 23rd overall on the Updated Rankings. He deserves a truly elite return in trades.

Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 17.2 – The plus bloodlines win again. Arias comes from a baseball family and he’s showing off that high baseball IQ and advanced beyond his years DNA, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 2 homers, 1 steal, and a 10%/20% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He’s not just a high IQ guy though, he’s also a projectable 6’1”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that has clear power potential. He looks like a good one.

Gabriel Lara NYY, OF, 17.6 – Lara is another early DSL pop up, slashing .438/.550/.875 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 10%/15% K%/BB% in 4 games. He has truly elite speed with a good feel to hit coming from a quick, compact lefty swing. He’s only 5’9”, but he’s not a skinny nothing, he definitely has some muscle. Carlos Jorge and Jonatan Clase would be the upside here, maybe even with a better hit tool.

Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.5 – Delgado’s truly elite plate approach is transferring to stateside rookie ball, slashing .333/.538/.556 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and an 11.5%/30.8% K%/BB% in 5 games. He remains a year older than optimal, and while age for level is important, you don’t want to be a total slave to it. He’s also a small guy at 5’8”, so the power upside isn’t huge. Regardless, he’s an excellent athlete with the potential for an elite plate approach with speed and some pop.

Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS, 18.5 – Tejada is also backing up his strong DSL showing in 2022, slashing .438/.591/.813 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 22.7%/22.7% K%/BB% in 5 games in stateside rookie. He’s not a monster tools guy, but he has the potential to be that solid across the board contributor at peak.

Abraham Nunez CHW, OF, 17.3 – Okay, enough with these little guy breakouts. Nunez is a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with baseball bloodlines (his dad played in the majors) and good athleticism. He’s slashing .500/.647/.917 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 11.8%/29.4% K%/BB% in 4 DSL games. He surely checks a lot of boxes. Keep an eye out.

Luis Baez HOU, OF, 19.5 – I couldn’t do this mini Rookie Ball Rundown without mentioning the current rookie ball home run leader, Luis Baez. He’s jacked 4 homers in just 5 games in stateside rookie coming off a season where he jacked 9 homers in 58 games in the DSL. He has the raw power to back up the numbers at 6’1”, 215 pounds with a powerful righty swing. The hit tool is still a bit of a question mark with a poor 25.2%/6.3% K%/BB% in 2022, but it’s been better so far in 2023 (20.8%/16.7%). He’s also a year older than optimal and is more physically mature than most of his competition. But hitting bombs like this will certainly get you on the radar.

Jack Suwinski PITT, OF, 24.10 – Everybody was looking to put Suwinski in the grave, but he refused to comply, continuing his re-reemergence yesterday on a 2 for 4 day with a 108.6 MPH homer. He has 6 homers with a 1.142 OPS over his last 14 games. The strikeout rate is still too high at 32% and he isn’t running as much as optimal, but the guy can mash.

Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 25.10 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB vs. CHW. Garrett’s been the epitome of the crafty lefty this year, throwing a 6 pitch mix without any of the pitches cracking even 90 MPH (89.9 MPH sinker), but it gets the job done with an enticing 29.4% whiff% and 4.9% BB%. He’s not exactly a world beater with a 4.10 ERA and 4.73 xERA in 63.2 IP, but the guy knows the art of pitching, With Trevor Rogers on the comeback trail, Miami will have a decision to make on their rotation, because they don’t have a spot for him right now.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.1 – Who would have thunk the 24/25 year old hitting for a 175 wRC+ at Triple-A, and who has produced his entire career, would actually be good? Nice of Colorado to actually get around to playing him, and surprise surprise, he continues to be good. He went 2 for 4 with a 111.6 MPH homer yesterday and is now slashing .360/.407/.680 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 31.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 15 games. Most surprising is how much he’s running, and he has the above average speed to back it up with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint. There is still hit tool risk, but the very reasonable 26.9% whiff% is comforting it won’t get too crazy. I’m buying.

Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.10 – Tovar has slowly but surely pulled himself out of that early season hole he dug himself, and his 2 for 4 day with a 424 foot homer off Blake Snell has finally brought his season OPS over .700 to .707. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .333/.375/.533 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 19/5 K/BB. I’m not gonna lie, the power/speed combo is still lacking, and the plate approach has been mediocre at best, so I’m not exactly buying, but he’s certainly finding his groove against MLB pitchers.

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.4 – Neto has just been laying down a rock solid foundation over his first 51 MLB games, and now he’s ready to build on it, blowing up yesterday with a 2 homer game. One was hit at 106.9 MPH and the other at 105.9 MPH. It’s actually quite remarkable what he’s doing against MLB pitching considering how quickly he was rushed through the minors, and he didn’t even come from a major conference in college. An 89.6 MPH EV with an 11.4 degree launch and 18.9% K% is the exact across the board profile I expected when I ranked him 3rd overall on my FYPD Rankings this off-season.

J.D. Martinez LAD, DH, 35.9 – 0 for 4 with 0 homers. I thought it was notable that he actually had a bad day, because he hasn’t had many since I named him a player to target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets (Patreon), ripping 7 homers in 15 games since then. His .400 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league and his 93 MPH EV is a career high. Dodgers strike again.

Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.4 – Let’s just pretend 2022 never happened. Matos has picked up from where his 2021 season ended, cracking 2 more homers yesterday at Triple-A on a 3 for 5 day. And just check out the vicious swings he used to unload on those two dingers. He’s not a huge guy, but he definitely packs a punch. He’s now blowing the doors off Triple-A, slashing .396/.434/.660 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 7%/6.1% K%/BB%. He might have officially made it to his destination from that elite prospect beeline he was on in 2021 with power, speed, and elite contact. A callup to the majors could be in the cards in the 2nd half.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.11 – Caminero sliced his 2nd homer in 12 games since getting the call to Double-A. He has the type of power where he doesn’t even need to get all of it to hit it out. Double-A has definitely slowed him down a bit with a 104 wRC+, but the kid is still 19 years old. He’s not the perfect prospect with a mediocre plate approach, relatively elevated groundball rates, and limited speed, but the guy is a masher no matter how you slice it.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 19.0 – Johnson hit an absolute no doubter to the tiki lounge in deep centerfield for his 3rd homer in 37 games at Single-A. It hasn’t exactly been the season we wanted to see from the uberhyped prospect with a 32.3% K%, but he still has a 126 wRC+ despite the swing and miss. I warned the hit tool wasn’t as good as advertised this off-season, so I wasn’t completely caught off guard by this, but I’m still buying the talent. He turned 19 yesterday, and I respect a player who finds ways to produce even when they aren’t completely locked in yet. Something tells me he’s about to hit his first real groove of the season. Don’t sell low.

Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 24.8 – Eder made his long awaited season debut earlier this month coming off Tommy John surgery and a broken foot, and he looked good in his 2nd outing on Saturday, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Single-A on a rehab assignment. The slide piece is still absolutely filthy and the fastball sat in the low to mid 90’s range. He was cracking Top 100’s before going down with the injury, and he has the potential to get back there if he keeps performing when he gets back to Double-A.

Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.5 – 4 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 7/0 K/BB at High-A. How can you not love watching this guy pitch? He now has a 2.30 ERA with a 29.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 58.2 IP on the season, and I think he’s now officially knocking on the door of Top 100 status if he isn’t there already. I’ve been targeting him since before he even got drafted, and I’m still buying hard.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8 – My top pitching target in this year’s first year player draft class, Schultz finally made his season debut earlier this month, and it was worth the wait. The guy looks like Baby Randy Johnson on the mound at 6’9”, 220 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider and developing change. He’s dominated in his 2 short outings, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The control has looked pretty good too. I implore you to get in now. He’s about to blow up.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 5, 2023June 9, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

It’s Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week over on the Patreon! As usual, I will go over 400 deep with blurbs for just about everyone. May, April, and Off-Season Rankings are in parenthesis, in that order. Here is the June Top 456 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 44 ROOKIE BALL/DSL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) (1) (1) (1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.11 – Still King

2) (2) (3) (3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.6 – 94.9 MPH EV and 13.4% K% are both career highs. .459 xwOBA is 2nd to only Aaron Judge. And to top it all off he’s on pace for over 70 stolen bases. This might be the closest I’ve been to even considering moving Ohtani off that top spot.

3) (8) (24) (24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.9 – 30.1 ft/sec sprint is the 4th fastest in the league behind Bobby Witt, Bubba Thompson, and Trea Turner, in that order. He combines the speed with a 20.5%/10.9% K%/BB% and a 90.3 MPH EV. He deserves this #3 ranking

4) (3) (2) (2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.5 – April just might not be his month. Started to heat up in May like last year, slashing .364/.375/.600 with 3 homers, 4 steals, and a 14/0 K/BB in his last 13 games. As long as he keeps crushing the ball (93.1 MPH) and is lightning fast (29.5 MPH), I’ll continue to overlook the mediocre plate approach

5) (7) (9) (7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.5 – All the worries that he would stop running due to the injuries have proven to be unfounded as he’s jacked 6 bags in 39 games. His 19.4% K% is a career best too for good measure

Shadow5) (3) (3) (6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.11

6) (9) (12) (16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.3 – Remember when people worried about Franco’s future stolen base totals when he was a prospect? Well, he’s on pace for over 50 stolen bases. The new rules obviously help, but he was underestimated there no matter how you slice it

7) (6) (5) (4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.11 – 9 homers with a 1.011 OPS in his last 28 games. If you don’t care about steals, he could rank as high as 3rd overall

8) (11) (7) (5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.7 – Slashing .315/.483/.593 with 6 homers, 5 steals, and a 27/34 K/BB in his last 33 games. I feel like we go through this “is Soto really not that good?” thing at some point every season, and the answer always ends up being “he is that good.”

9) (4) (4) (6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.5 – Homer power is down a bit with only 7 homers in 57 games, partly due to a career low 13.3 degree launch, but with everything else looking great, I’m guessing he will go on a homer binge in the near future

10) (5) (6) (9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.3 – .677 OPS in his last 25 games has brought his season numbers down to a pedestrian area, but it’s a just a cold streak. The .403 xwOBA is in the top 3% of the league. Just look at Juan Soto, you always want to be buying these small dips in superstar’s production if it leaves open even the smallest of buy windows

11) (14) (8) (10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.1 – Regression? He’s actually managed to improve with a career high 97.2 MPH EV and .476 xwOBA. If you are in win mode, he would rank as high as 3rd overall

12) (12) (11) (13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.3 – He’s improving his strength, taking the hit tool to the next level with a .329 BA and .331 xBA, but he hasn’t improved his weaknesses (BB% and launch), and he’s also not running (2 steals)

13) (13) (13) (8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 23.0 – If you can buy low based off the .694 OPS, I would jump all over it. He has a .347 xwOBA vs. a .297 wOBA, and his FB/LD EV is 94.1 MPH, which was his biggest problem last year. He’s taken a step forward from 2022, but the surface stats just haven’t shown it yet.

14) (20) (20) (18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.8 – Returned much earlier than expected from Tommy John and is right back to being elite with a .385 xwOBA. If you are looking for kinks in the armor, he only has 3 homers in 28 games, and his 37.8% whiff% is a career high by far, but considering the circumstances and how great he’s performed, I’m inclined to overlook it.

15) (18) (18) (26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.6 – .402 xwOBA is a career best. He’s on pace for almost 60 homers

16) (10) (10) (14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.7 – I’ve seen people tempted to sell low on Devers. Do not do that. He’s still absolutely crushing the ball with a 93.2 MPH EV and his .370 xwOBA is still in the near elite range

17) (24) (36) (36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.7 – 40.6% K% leads all qualified pitchers by a mile (Ohtani is 2nd with a 33.8% K%). Only deGrom’s 39.1% K% can even get within spitting distance of Strider if you lower the threshold down to 30 IP. Strider is the new top dog pitcher in dynasty.

18) (21) (17) (17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.8 – .997 OPS with 11 homers in his last 31 games

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 5, 2023June 6, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week!

Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week is back for the June Update. As usual, I will go over 400 deep with a quick blurb for just about everyone. First post coming later today or tom morning at the latest.

Also with rookie ball starting up, I will try to pull double duty and give a quick update on any fun early season performances. And speaking of fun early season performances, my top FYPD pitching target, Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8, came out guns blazing in his first start of the season on Friday, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. The fastball sat mid 90’s!!! and he looked like Baby Randy Johnson out there on the mound. He is about to explode.

-Halp

Posted on June 2, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 44 Rookie Ball/DSL Rankings

Rookie Ball and the DSL start next week, and that means there is a whole new group of breakouts ready to get put through the Dynasty Baseball community hype machine. Here is a ranking of the top 44 guys to keep an eye on, discussing their upside, downside, and prime projection (top 5 free here on IBW):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 314 MAY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 433 MAY DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (5/26/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! (5/16/23)
-TOP 25 PROSPECTS TO STASH FOR 2023 IMPACT ONLY (5/19/23)
–TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE 2024 TOP 50 PROSPECTS RANKS

1) Yasser Mercedes MIN, OF, 18.6

Upside – Top 5 prospect. Mercedes has the potential for plus production in every category. He looks the part, he got the big signing bonus, and he destroyed the DSL in 2022. If he performs well in stateside rookie ball, his hype will explode very quickly.

Downside – A 19.9% K% in the DSL isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. The downside is that the K% is more in the high 20’s against more advanced competition. There is also a chance the power simply never comes to the level we need to see.

Prime Projection: 77/22/79/.253/.325/.448/19

2) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.7

Upside – Top 10 prospect. Montas doesn’t have the speed, or the hit tool to likely ever be in consideration for top prospect in the game, but his power is in the elite of the elite, and that alone can get him around top 10 status at peak. He’s also a great athlete, so it’s not like he’s just a lumbering slugger.

Downside – The K% starts getting closer and closer to 40%

Prime Projection: 76/34/84/.238/.320/.502/4

3) Felnin Celesten SEA, SS, 17.9

Upside – Josue De Paula

Midside – Cristhian Vaquero

Downside – Erick Pena

Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.268/.336/.470/18

4) Jaison Chourio CLE, OF, 18.0

Upside – Jackson Chourio

Midside – Luisangel Acuna

Downside – Elijah Tatis

Prime Projection: 84/19/75/.273/.344/.441/16

5) Oswaldo Osorio LAD, SS/3B, 18.2

Upside – Top 20 prospect. If Osorio keeps the K rate in check, he has the type of power/speed combo to get the dynasty community in a tither. Watch that K% like a hawk, and be very quick to jump on him to it looks good.

Downside – He had a .239 BA with a 23.5% K% in the DSL. The downside is that he will always be that high risk, high reward guy

Prime Projection: 75/23/79/.244/.329/.448/11

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)