October 2023 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on October 30, 2023November 1, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. He ranked 9th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B, 24.4 – Strand was so good in his rookie year it might have pushed Joey Votto right out the door before he could have his final year retirement tour (he still wants to come back to the Reds for one more year, we’ll see). He cracked 13 homers with a 10.5% barrel%, 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV, 18.6 degree launch, and .347 xwOBA in 63 games. Even his hit tool was pretty good with a .270 BA and .268 xBA. The plate approach wasn’t great as expected with a 28.6%/5.8% K%/BB%, but he proved he’s capable of making improvements in that area at Triple-A with a 21.8%/10.4% K%/BB%. Speaking of Triple-A, he decimated the level with 20 homers and a 155 wRC+ in just 67 games. Strand is on a beeline to be one of the premier power hitters in the game. 2024 Projection: 78/32/90/.252/.318/.499/5

Spencer Steer CIN, 1B/3B/OF, 26.4 – I named Steer a target last off-season and finished his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut.” As I predicted, his poor EV numbers in his rookie year (84.7 MPH) came way up to 88.7 MPH, and he most certainly did damage, slashing .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 15 steals, and a 20.9%/10.2% K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back up the production with average to above average marks everywhere you look. The one issue is that he was poor defensively everywhere he played, and Cincinnati is stacked with the talent right now. A playing time crunch is coming and Steer could be a victim of it, unless Cincinnati can make a trade for pitching this off-season, which they clearly should. 2024 Projection: 79/24/81/.266/.341/.457/13

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal and should be valued as a top 50 dynasty asset. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

Pitchers

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 24.8 – Buy low on Hunter Greene. We’ve been taught over and over again to not throw the towel in on elite pitching prospects if they don’t immediately dominate their first few years in the league, and Greene has all of the ingredients to be a next level breakout as he gains more experience. He had a 4.82 ERA in 112 IP, but the 3.82 xERA shows he was unlucky, and the 30.5%/9.6% K%/BB% is screaming future ace breakout. The stuff is fire with a 98.3 MPH fastball, a plus slider that notched a 39.2% whiff%, and an improving changeup that put up a respectable .314 xwOBA against. I know the fastball gets hit harder than you would expect, but as his command improves and as he continues to tinker with his arsenal, I’m betting on him figuring it out. This is going to be one of those breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight. 2024 Projection: 11/3.72/1.25/200 in 160 IP

Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 24.10 – Abbott took the majors by storm in his first 10 starts at the level with with a 1.90 ERA and 66/19 K/BB in 61.2 IP, but the league caught up with him in the 2nd half with a 6.42 ERA and 54/25 K/BB in his final 47.2 IP. The stuff is solid, but not truly standout with a 92.7 MPH fastball, he got hit very hard with a 91.2 MPH EV against, and the control is below average with a 9.6% BB%. Those were some of the reasons I wasn’t fully buying into Abbott when he was crushing the minors, but I don’t want to make the same mistake for his 2nd time through the majors. He still had a strong debut overall with a 3.87 ERA and 26.1% K% in 109.1 IP. He has a legit 4 pitch mix where the sweeper notched an elite .182 xwOBA against, and the changeup missed bats with a 39.4% whiff%. He definitely has the collection of skills to be an impact fantasy starter, I’m just not sure I would put top of the rotation expectations on him, especially in Cincinnati. 2024 Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/187 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 27.6 – Diaz was much better in the first half (1.80 ERA with a 40.4% K% in 35 IP) than the 2nd half (4.45 ERA with a 20% in 32.1 IP), but nothing really changed in his profile, so I’m leaning towards it being small sample reliever variance. It all evened out to a 3.07 ERA and 30.1%/12.6% K%/BB% in 67.1 IP. The slightly more concerning thing is that the stuff wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as it was in 2022 with his fastball down 1.3 MPH to 94.5 MPH, and it got hit harder too with a 90.2 MPH EV against vs. 86.6 MPH in 2022. The slider also wasn’t as good with the whiff% dropping 7 percentage points to 38%. Some of this feels like slicing and dicing the numbers a little too much, which is why I’m still projecting him as elite, but if he struggles, it’s not like their weren’t some red flags. 2024 Projection: 6/3.02/1.12/85/36 saves in 65 IP

Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

2) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 20.7 – Arroyo got off to a cold start in April and May, be he turned it on in June and never looked back, slashing .281/.360/.480 with 9 homers, 25 steals, and a 20.1%/10.1% K%/BB% in his final 89 games. 4 of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 153 wRC+, albeit with a 30%/5% K%/BB%. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, he has plus speed, and at 6’0”, 175 pounds, there is definitely room for him to add more power. I’m not sure I see a star when I watch him, but he’s still quite young, and I wouldn’t completely rule that out as a possibility at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/74/.253/.320/.428/25

3) Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 7th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder is a relatively safe, quick moving college arm. None of his stuff is jaw dropping, but he has plus control of 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93-94 MPH fastball, slider and changeup. It led to a pitching line of 1.87/0.95/143/24 in 120.1 IP in the ACC. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with an athletic delivery, he works fast, and he throws strikes with good stuff. Take a star away for landing in Cincy’s hitter’s haven, but I wouldn’t let the landing spot completely spoil you on him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/185 in 180 IP

4) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 21.0 – If Petty was throwing as hard he was throwing in his draft year (mid to upper 90’s), he would be an elite pitching prospect right now, but he’s settled in as a low to mid 90’s guy. Even with the modest velocity, he does everything else so well, this version of him might actually be better than the version we thought we were getting. He’s now a pitcher’s pitcher with elite control (5.5% BB%) and a very diverse pitch mix. He throws so many different pitches that all look pretty similar out of his hand and are all at around similar velocities, but they break a different way as they get closer to the plate. He throws a hard gyro slider, a hard split change, a 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, and a slightly slower breaking ball. He’s a nightmare to face. You can almost say he’s a junk baller type, but he throws his secondaries so hard it wouldn’t exactly be accurate. He dominated with a 1.72 ERA and 24.1%/5.5% K%/BB% in 68 IP at mostly High-A. He closed out year at Double-A and was equally as dominant. The floor might be higher than the ceiling at the moment, but if he all of a sudden finds that old velocity of his, watch out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.74/1.19/166 in 170 IP

5) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 22.11 – Phillips’ control took a monster step forward at Double-A with a 9.5% BB% (14% BB% in 2022), but it proved to be a pre-tacked ball mirage. His walk rate exploded again at Triple-A and MLB with a 16.9% BB% and 13.5% BB%, respectively. When MLB tests out new rules/balls in the minors, they tend to make their way to the majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked if MLB incorporates a tackier ball at some point in the future. It will majorly help poor control guys like Phillips if they do, because his stuff is utter filth with a 96.4 MPH fastball and an elite slider that notched a 48.9% whiff% and .152 xwOBA in 20.2 MLB IP. With the pre-tacked balls at Double-A, he had a 3.34 ERA in 64.2 IP, but that jumped to 4.69 at Triple-A and 6.97 in the majors. The stuff is tantalizing and makes you want to bet on him, but the control is in the major bullpen danger zone with the normal baseballs. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.37/88 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.32/170 in 150 IP

6) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 20.4 – Stewart is proving to have an elite plate approach with a 15.2%/17.1% K%/BB% in 88 games at Single-A (128 wRC+), which he followed up with a 13.7%/13.7% K%/BB% in 29 games at High-A (127 wRC+). And he’s not the type of plus approach guy who doesn’t have much else to offer, Stewart is an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 215 pounds. He hit only 12 homers in 117 total games, but he hit the ball fairly hard, the raw power is only going up from here, and he didn’t have any major groundball issues. He also stole 15 bags, which shows his speed might be getting underrated. The biggest problem is his defense, and in a jam packed organization like Cincinnati, that could become an issue down the road. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.274/.351/.473/8

7) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 19.5 – Here’s how I closed out Cabrera’s Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, ranking him 985th overall, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t want to pull the rip cord too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated.” That proved wise with Cabrera as he followed up a mediocre pro debut in the DSL in 2022 with a full scale breakout in 2023. He slashed .350/.469/.559 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20%/12% K%/BB% in 39 games at stateside rookie, and then he went to full season ball and put up a 159 wRC+ in 5 games. He has a good feel to hit, a strong plate approach, and a potentially above average power/speed combo. He’s bigger and hit the ball harder than the next two guys on this list, which is why I have him slotted ahead of them. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/20/77/.267/.330/.441/18

8) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 20.6 – Jorge is a small guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard with low EV’s and hard hit rates. It makes me a little hesitant to rank him too highly, but he’s the type to get the most out his raw power through quality of contact. He pulled the ball over 50% of the time and he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He’s a destroyer of levels with a 173 wRC+ in 2021 in the DSL, a 151 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2022, and a 140 wRC+ at Single-A in 2023 (he struggled at High-A to close out the year with a 86 wRC+). What you are really buying here is the very mature plate approach (19.7%/13.2% K%/BB%) and plus speed (31 steals). If the raw power meaningfully ticks up in the future, he will be a fantasy beast, and even if it doesn’t, he has the skillset to make a fantasy impact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/15/61/.263/.337/.421/26

9) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 20.1 – Rodriguez looks like such a natural and easy hitter at the dish. He has a calm setup before exploding with a pretty nasty lefty swing. He’s done nothing but produce in pro ball, and that continued in 2023, slashing .293/.347/.510 with 16 homers, 18 steals, and an 18.9%/6.1% K%/BB% in 101 games at Single-A before slowing down at High-A (88 wRC+ in 14 games). The problem is that he is a small guy at 5’8” who doesn’t have a ton of raw power. He also doesn’t walk a ton. Projecting that out on the MLB level, it could end up looking like a bottom of the order contact/speed play, but maybe that is just the small man bias kicking in. If he was taller, his hype would be a lot louder right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/16/69/.273/.328/.427/23

10) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Collier had a very lackluster season with only 6 homers, a 53% GB%, and a .706 OPS in 111 games at Single-A. There is no doubt his value is lower today than it was last off-season, but there are enough positives to think the best is yet to come. He was very young for his draft class and was just 18 years old playing the entire season in full season ball. He hit the ball very hard, especially for his age, and he showed a strong plate approach with a 23%/12.4% K%/BB%. His 98 wRC+ was also nearly average. If he can raise his launch angle, and I would bet on him being able to do so, he can still very easily live up to hit plus hit/power profile coming out of the draft. He’s a hold. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/24/84/.265/.334/.468/5

Just Missed

11) Blake Dunn CIN, OF, 25.7

12) Rece Hinds CIN, OF, 23.7

13) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.3

14) Lyon Richardson CIN, RHP, 24.2

15) Ty Floyd CIN, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 38th overall, the 6’2”, 200 pound Floyd has a plus to double plus mid 90’s fastball that he leans on heavily. It led to a 4.35 ERA with a 31% K% in 91 IP. There are more than a few heavy fastball usage pitchers who are doing well in the majors right now, but those guys generally have plus control and/or better secondaries than Floyd. Floyd’s control is below average with a 9.6% BB%, but it was improving as the year went on, and his slider, curve and change are about average at best. If the secondaries and/or control take a step forward, there is very real upside here, and I don’t mind targeting him at all as a later round arm if you focus on offense with your earlier picks. He ranked 37th overall in my End of Season Top 54 FYPD Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/165 in 160 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I talked about this in my Pittsburgh Pirates Strategy Section, but it’s worth pounding the point home in the Reds section as well, I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at this off-season. I’ve been absolutely lights out with MLB win total over/unders these past two years. I wrote/tweeted about my bets on the Orioles and Rangers last off-season, and I did the same for my Twins bet the off-season before that. I think “Vegas” underrates the bubbling minor league systems of up and coming teams, and the Reds are the exact type of team they’ve underrated in the past. They are loaded with talent, they have great depth, and their pitching will get underrated with possible breakouts from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. Arms like Phillips, Richardson, Petty and Lowder are all knocking on the door as well. This a team ready to explode, and I doubt their win O/U will fully reflect that.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 23, 2023October 23, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: A Top 29 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

I’m excited to kick off the Sneak Peek Series of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. The Sneak Peeks will get increasingly larger in subsequent releases. The Top 6 are free on the Brick Wall. Here is A Top 29 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei Ohtani FRA, RHP/DH, 29.9 – Ohtani tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 16, 2023December 15, 2023 by Michael Halpern

New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – Two of the oldest tricks in the dynasty book of trading make Alvarez a very attractive target this off-season. A .222 BABIP dragged his BA down to .209 (only 5 players in all of baseball with over 400 PA had a lower BABIP), and he didn’t immediately put up Hall of Fame numbers in his rookie season with a below average 97 wRC+. Bad luck (the 26% K% and 31.8% whiff% weren’t bad at all), and lack of patience with prospects in their rookie year are basically the playbook on how to make trades that look fair at the moment, but end up looking like major rip-offs not too far into the future. And with top prospects flying through the minors faster than ever, these type of buy opportunities are likely to explode when everyone’s favorite 20 and 21 year olds take a minute to adjust to MLB pitching. It’s not like Alvarez’ price will be dirt cheap though, because his 25 homers were the 2nd most for all catchers, and the 90.1/95.7 MPH EV backs up the production. The scary thing is, this is just scratching the surface of his power potential. Alvarez is going to be a perennial 30+ homer bat from the catcher position for the next decade. 2024 Projection: 72/32/80/.239/.324/.472/4 Prime Projection: 85/34/93/.254/.351/.520/3

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.4 – If Alvarez is out of your price range, Vientos might be more your speed, and you should be able to acquire him for next to nothing in most leagues. Like Alvarez, he got unlucky in 2023 with a .267 wOBA vs. .305 xwOBA, and like Alvarez, he has beastly power with a 92.5/97.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. That isn’t even “beastly power,” that is truly elite power. He put up a 94.4 MPH EV at Triple-A too. Speaking of Triple-A, he showed hit tool improvements at the level with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB% in 61 games, and completely demolished the level in general with a 143 wRC+. Showing that kind of swing and miss improvement gives hope he can do the same against MLB pitching with more experience (30.5% K% and 36.7% whiff%). Lack of defensive value is the biggest snafu, but elite power bats tend to force their way into the lineup, and at Vientos’ current dirt cheap price, it’s an easy call to take a shot on him. 2024 Projection: 59/23/71/.236/.315/.450/2 Prime Projection: 77/31/88/.248/.327/.493/2

Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 24.5 – Baty is stuck somewhere in between Alvarez and Vientos, in the sense he still has enough name value where his price won’t be that cheap, but his upside might not be quite high enough to pay that high price. He’s put up very high groundball rates his entire career and he had a 6.6 degree launch in 389 MLB PA in 2023. It led to a lowly 9 homers and 68 wRC+. He also doesn’t have the high contact rates to make up for it with a 28% K% and 31.5% whiff%. I don’t want this to come off like I don’t like him though, because I would bet on Baty becoming a very good MLB hitter. He has a mature plate approach, he hits the ball very hard, he has great size (6’3”, 210), he’s a solid defender at 3B, and he just looks like a hitter in the box. I’m just concerned about his upside in 5×5 BA leagues, and I don’t think his price will be all that cheap this off-season. 2024 Projection: 77/22/74/.246/.322/.435/4 Prime Projection: 84/26/88/.264/.347/.475/5

Pitchers

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. Senga is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 30.0 – Diaz almost returned from March knee surgery in September, which makes me pretty confident he will be 100% in 2024. Any major surgery adds risk, but it’s not like it’s his elbow or shoulder. I’m treating him like the elite of the elite closer he is with a ridiculous 50.2% K% in 2022 on the back of a 99.1 MPH fastball and 90.8 MPH slider. If there is any slight discount to be had because of the injury, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.59/1.00/105/33 saves in 60 IP

New York Mets Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Ronny Mauricio NYM, 2B, 23.0 – I named Mauricio one of my top targets in the Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target article on Patreon. Mainstream prospects lists have been slowly sliding him down the rankings the closer he’s gotten to the majors, but I’ve done the exact opposite on my lists. He crushes the ball with a 117.3 MPH Max EV that was the 10th hardest hit ball all season. He had a 90.7 MPH AVG EV in 108 MLB PA (91.1 MPH at AAA). He loves to run with 7 MLB steals and 24 AAA steals, and his speed gets underrated with an above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint. He’s never had any major contact issues and he most certainly looks the part at 6’3” with a vicious swing. He doesn’t have a good plate approach with low walk rates, but keep in mind he’s always been very young for his level, and his 6.6% BB% at Triple-A (6.5% BB% in the majors) was a career high, so I wouldn’t bet against future improvement there either. His mediocre ranking on prospects and mediocre .643 OPS in the majors should create a very nice buy opportunity this off-season. 2024 Projection: 69/19/74/.254/.309/.435/21 Prime Projection: 83/24/83/.267/.325/.466/24

2) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 20.4 – Jett Williams got much thicker in all the right places in 2023, and that extra muscle paid dividends with him cracking 14 homers in 125 games split between Single-A (79 games), High-A (36 games), and Double-A (10 games). 9 of those homers came in his final 47 games. He combines the uptick in power with elite speed (45 steals), and an excellent plate approach (22.1%/19.5% K%/BB%). If he wasn’t 5’6”, he might be a consensus elite prospect already. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/20/77/.274/.350/.445/38

3) Luisangel Acuna NYM, SS/2B, 22.1 – Acuna’s power didn’t take a step forward in 2023 as hoped with only 9 homers in 121 games at Double-A, but there is definitely more raw juice in the tank with an explosive righty swing, and that was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent season. He put up a career best (other than the DSL) 18.6% K%, and he stole a career high 57 bases. It’s also really, really hard to resist the pull of elite bloodlines. Even if Acuna never develops big power, he can still be an impact fantasy player, and if does, watch out. 2024 Projection: 36/6/25/.239/.300/.382/14 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.258/.328/.427/35

4) Drew Gilbert NYM, OF, 23.6 – Gilbert might be the safest prospect on this list. He does everything well on a baseball field with contact ability (18.9% K%), on base ability (11.3% BB%), power (18 homers), speed (12 steals), and good defense in 116 games at mostly Double-A. The power/speed combo isn’t quite big enough at only 5’9”, 195 pounds to really fly him up prospect lists, but he has a big lefty swing that makes him look much bigger in the box than his listed height, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his power surprised in the bigs. He’s a high floor prospect who might have more upside than his small stature would indicate. 2024 Projection: 41/10/33/.253/.318/.409/7 Prime Projection: 84/20/72/.273/.340/.438/14

5) Ryan Clifford NYM, 1B/OF, 20.7 – Here is what I wrote about Clifford in January of 2023 in my FYPD Target & Strategy Guide, “I’m planning on leaving every draft with Clifford, and he could be my #1 target in general. This guy checks almost every box you want to see for a monster power hitter (size, swing, lift, EV, organization, good pro debut, history of production). He also got drafted 343rd overall, meaning he should go super, super late in drafts. The one hiccup is the K rate was a bit on the high side, but the BB% was even higher to even it out, and he wasn’t expected to have major hit tool problems coming into the draft. He has legit star upside.” … you’re damn happy right now if you took my advice, as Clifford slashed .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers, 5 steals, and a 27.4%/12.5% K%/BB% in 115 games at mostly High-A. He scuffled after the trade to the Mets (so did Acuna), but I think you have to take into account an adjustment period when you join a new team, new city, new coaches etc … He’s right on track to become a high OBP, low BA slugger. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/30/86/.248/.332/.487/6

6) Christian Scott NYM, RHP, 24.10 – Scott had a truly elite 32.8%/3.4% K%/BB% in 62 IP at Double-A. He had a 107/12 K/BB in 87 IP on the season. Let’s not overthink things too much. Those are eye opening K/BB numbers and they led to a 2.57 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. And it’s not like he did it with smoke and mirrors. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with a relatively easy, smooth, and athletic delivery . He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball that he can even got into the upper 90’s, and his slider is a plus, bat missing weapon. He rounds out the arsenal with a curve and change. To sum it all up, this a big man with elite control, a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a put away slider, a diverse pitch mix, and upper minors dominance. The more I think about and watch Scott, the more I love him. He’s getting considerably underrated. 2024 Projection: 3/4.22/1.28/44 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.18/169 in 160 IP

7) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez continues to sit in the breakout waiting room for his 3rd straight year. I know it’s getting frustrating, but all of the same ingredients are there that made him so exciting in previous years. He had a very good 21.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in 120 games at High-A, and he also stole 21 bags. He just needs to finally start tacking on mass to his skinny 6’3” frame, because only 7 homers with a 78 wRC+ is not going to get the job done. He’s too young to give up on such tantalizing tools, but 2024 is the last year he gets to live on “potential.” We need to see some real production. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/18/72/.252/.320/.423/21

8) Colin Houck NYM, SS, 19.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Houck is an excellent all around athlete who was also a heavily recruited star quarterback in high school. He’s not just raw tools though, he also has a good feel to hit with a mature approach at the plate. His value held serve in his pro debut with a dead average 100 wRC+, 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 22.2%/19.4% K%/BB% in 9 games. The power isn’t plus quite yet, and while he’s fast, he’s not lightning fast, so it all might project to an above average across the board profile. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/22/79/.272/.338/.453/14

9) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 22.8 – Parada had such an underwhelming season for an advanced college bat. He had 11 homers with a 25.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 87 at High-A, and then he put up a 38.3%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 70 wRC+ in 14 games at Double-A. He didn’t hit for a ton of power, he didn’t get on base, and he didn’t hit for average. He’s not considered a good defensive catcher, so he was probably putting a ton of focus into his defense, which is often why catchers take longer to develop in general, but that isn’t exactly a point in Parada’s favor for fantasy either. He’s starting to look like a pretty low upside option with multiple areas of risk (hit tool, defense, Francisco Alvarez). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/22/75/.247/.323/.447/2

10) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – The 6’4”, 207 pound Tidwell is a high upside pitcher with both control risk and reliever risk. He throws an electric fastball/slider combo with the fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider racking up whiffs. It led to a 3.09 ERA with a 33% K% in 81.2 IP at High-A and a 4.72 ERA with a 27.7% K% in 34.1 IP at Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the danger zone with a 12.9% BB%, and the changeup needs to develop into a legitimate 3rd pitch. You want to aim for upside in fantasy, which is why I like Tidwell at his current value, but he can very easily end up in the pen. 2024 Projection: 2/4.32/1.36/39 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/170 in 150 IP

Just Missed

11) Marco Vargas NYM, SS, 18.10

12) Jeremy Rodriguez NYM, SS, 17.9

13) AJ Ewing NYM, 2B, 19.8 – Selected 134th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Ewing got dinged because of questionable power potential, but he’s not a small guy at a relatively strong 6’0”, and he hits the ball hard with a vicious lefty swing, so I’m not sure why that got put on him. He had a strong pro debut with a 161 wRC+, 0 homers (14.3% GB%), 1 steal, and a 28.6%/23.8% K%/BB% in 7 games. He has a good feel to hit, mature approach, above average speed, and more power than he is given credit for. He has a chance to be quite good. He makes for a great underrated FYPD target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/79/.265/.336/.438/16

14) Mike Vasil NYM, RHP, 24.0

15) Jacob Reimer NYM, 3B, 20.1

16) Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1

17) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 21.6

18) Joander Suarez NYM, RHP, 24.1

19) Matt Rudick NYM, OF, 25.9

20) Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.7

21) Julio Zayas NYM, C, 18.2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Opportunity is a major factor in success. I always think about how many players could have been successful major leaguers if they were given a legit opportunity and had the leash to make adjustments. As much as we want to fall in love with every poor defensive masher, or lightening fast utility type player, we have to account for the fact those types may very well never really get the opportunity to reach their full potential. There are only so many jobs available in major league baseball, and the vets who are on million dollar deals, or the high draft picks, or the high signing bonus players will get the priority over our favorite underrated prospects. Having said that, I’m going to ignore everything I just said and still go after the defensively limited Vientos this off-season. It’s easier to give advice than to take it 😉

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Colorado Rockies–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Yankees (free)–San Diego Padres–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 9, 2023October 14, 2023 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2024 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, the Top 100 FYPD rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Hitters

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 23.10 – I guess the Devil only has room for one Yankees rookie on his ledger, because I see no promises made for Peraza in 2024. He swung and missed far too often for his type of profile with a 33.1% whiff% in 191 PA, which led to a .191 BA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to make up for the swing and miss with a below average 87.2 MPH EV in the majors and 85.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. He also has never really been a big OBP guy with mostly mediocre walks rates throughout his career. The plus speed and defense are what carries his profile, and while both are good enough to make Peraza an attractive low cost option, his former prospect hype could push his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 53/9/46/.238/.299/.388/17 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.254/.319/.415/23

Pitchers

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.10 – King pitched too damn well once being transitioned to a starter to leave a ton of value on the bone. He put up a 2.02 ERA with a 45/7 K/BB in his final 35.2 IP. There is nothing in the underlying data to say it was a fluke, and he’s been lights out for 2 years now in whatever role the Yanks put him in. The stuff is good, he misses bats, he induces weak contact, and he doesn’t have any major control issues. He was also a starter throughout his minor league career, so it’s not like starting is a new challenge for him. Everything is pointing towards him being for real, but there are a couple things to consider before you really sell the farm for him. His velocity was slowly declining to close out the season, and he also had a serious arm injury in 2022 (fractured elbow which required surgery). It adds at least some doubt if he can truly keep up this level of production under a full starter’s workload. I’m willing to go after him if the price doesn’t get too out of control, but I’m concerned with how he closed out the season, his price could get too out of control. 2024 Projection: 9/3.51/1.19/162 in 145 IP

Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 31.4 – An elbow and back injury delayed the start of Rodon’s season until July, and while there were glimpses of him regaining his old form, it was mostly a straight disaster with a 6.85 ERA and 22.4%/9.8% K%/BB% in 64.1 IP. His finish to the season was the most concerning as his velocity was way down, and he gave up 8 earned runs without recording a single out in his final outing. If you’re a glass half full person, you can look at this as a lost season due to the injuries and expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2024, but if you’re a glass half empty person, you are looking at him like a ticking time bomb, especially with his injury history. I’m the type of person who looks at that glass and sees the water in the middle (I live in the gray), which is how I would value Rodon for next year. 2024 Projection: 9/3.57/1.20/160 in 140 IP

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.4 – Holmes 27.1% K% isn’t high enough to put him in the truly elite closer tier when you have guys like Felix Bautista putting up a 46.4% K% (and plenty of others in the mid to high 30’s), but he’s in the tier right under that. He uses a 96 MPH sinker which he throws 69.2% of the time to keep the ball on the ground (negative 3.4 degree launch), and he uses a dominant slider (.176 xwOBA and 43.1% whiff%) and sweeper (.079 xwOBA and 44.2% whiff%) to miss bats. He’s locked in as the Yanks closer for 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.09/1.12/72/32 saves in 64 IP

New York Yankees Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

2) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

3) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 19.7 – Arias has elite prospect written all over him, and with a good showing in full season ball in 2024, it won’t be long before he skyrockets into the Top 10 overall. He hits the ball hard (6 homers in 27 games in stateside rookie ball), he has speed (17 steals), he has an excellent plate approach (22.3%/20.8% K%/BB%), he’s a good defender, and he has pedigree ($4 million international signing). He most certainly looks the part too with a vicious lefty swing (he went 2 for 11 on the entire season hitting righty). He won’t come super cheap this off-season, but he’s easily worth targeting at his current price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/22/80/.264/.348/.471/24

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 24.9 – Wells’ MLB debut gave me a ton of confidence that the profile will transfer. He had a 14% barrel%, 89.5 MPH EV, 13.6 degree launch, 18.7% K%, and .367 xwOBA in 75 PA. Boone also praised his defense. He didn’t exactly blow the doors off the upper minors, but he still hit 17 homers in 96 games. The Yankee Stadium short porch is perfect for him, and the bar to clear to be an impact fantasy catcher isn’t very high right now. I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy beast, but I do foresee a top 10 fantasy catcher for years to come. 2024 Projection: 56/18/63/.235/.307/.410/3 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.252/.331/.442/5

5) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 23.0 – Pereira’s 43.1% whiff%, 38.8% K%, and 23 wRC+ in his 103 PA MLB debut is exactly what we didn’t want to see happen. That is the kind of disaster MLB debut that has to make you think twice about betting on a player, but I would be careful about giving up on Pereira too fast. He truly crushes the ball, he has well above average speed, and he decimated the upper minors with a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and 132 wRC+ at Triple-A. You only have to look at his teammate, Aaron Judge, to find hope, as Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his 95 PA MLB debut in 2016. When a guy hits the ball this hard, you don’t need to be Luis Arraez to do damage. The extreme swing and miss does have me less excited for him than I was before his debut, but I’m still betting on his talent long term. 2024 Projection: 44/17/51/.222/.291/.434/9 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.244/.320/.482/12

6) Drew Thorpe NYY, RHP, 23.6 – Who needs a huge fastball anyway? Thorpe’s double plus changeup and above average slider was more than enough to obliterate minor leaguers. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 109 IP at High-A, and then he went to Double-A and was even better with a 1.48 ERA and 40%/4.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. He’s a big boy at 6’4”, 225 pounds and his command is very good too. Plus changeup guys can sometimes get exposed against MLB hitters, and the aforementioned fastball only sits low to mid 90’s, which is why I’m hesitant to truly put top of the rotation upside on him, but this is a high floor starter with legit upside who should be up in the bigs very quickly into 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/4.13/1.28/92 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.18/190 in 175 IP

7) John Cruz NYY, OF, 18.7 – If Cruz were eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft, his hype would be through the roof. He has the scout’s dream build at a projectable 6’3”, 171 pounds, and it comes with a quick and powerful lefty swing. It resulted in him ripping up stateside rookie ball as a 17 year old, slashing .294/.376/.531 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. Power, speed, build, production, age to level … this is everything you look for in a shooting star prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/27/87/.251/.324/.473/12

8) George Lombard NYY, SS, 18.10 – Selected 26th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lombard has baseball bloodlines with his father playing 6 years in the big leagues, and like most plus bloodlines kids, his game is mature beyond his years. He stepped right into pro ball and put up a 202 wRC+ with a 2/5 K/BB in 4 games at rookie ball, and then he closed the year out at Single-A with a 114 wRC+ and 10/8 K/BB in 9 games. He combines the high baseball IQ with plus athleticism at 6’3”, 190 pounds, and has the potential for an at least above average power/speed combo at peak. This is a really nice blend of safety and upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/77/.268/.341/.450/16

9) Chase Hampton NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Hampton wasn’t quite able to keep up the breakout at Double-A with his ERA jumping from 2.68 at High-A to 4.37 at Double-A, and his K% dropping from 40.5% to 27.4%, but that shouldn’t put a damper on his excellent season, because he has the big stuff to get excited about. He’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change). The command is solid. With the production taking a step back against more advanced competition, I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but I certainly think he can be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter at peak. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.33/86 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/177 in 170 IP

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 20.3 – Delgado backed up his 2022 breakout in the DSL with all of his skills transferring stateside in 2023, slashing .293/.414/.485 with 8 homers, 36 steals, and a 13%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. Proving it stateside is one box checked off, but he was still one year older than optimal for the level, and he is still a small guy at only 5’7”. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he ended up a utility infielder, but he’s a legitimately electric player who I think can overcome his small stature. If he can keep up the production at a more age appropriate level, he will be an easy Top 100 prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.343/.428/26

Just Missed

11) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS/2B/3B, 19.3

12) Brando Mayea NYY, OF, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 24.10

14) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 23.11

15) Henry Lalane NYY, LHP, 19.10

16) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be a pain in the ass to own prospects from big market teams because of how easily those teams can go out and sign proven talent, which in turn blocks our favorite prospects, but the Yankees are too far deep into the youth movement to all of a sudden majorly change course this off-season. They also don’t have a ton of money coming off the books, making it even less likely that their top prospects get blocked. The combination of talent, proximity, opportunity and ballpark (Yankee Stadium has the perfect combo for fantasy of juicing up homers while being a fairly neutral park overall) provides so many juicy targets to go after this off-season for dynasty.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)