Posted on by Michael Halpern

20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (A Collection from the 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

This post is a collection of strategies and thoughts from my 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports. Some were free and most were on the Patreon. I wanted to collect them in one easy to read post. Also make sure to check out my previous strategy articles if you haven’t read those already, linked to below. Here are my 20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (A Collection from the 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports):

Strategy Articles from Previous Years
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2019
10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2021
16 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2023 (A Collection from the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-THE TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 350 ARE UP NOW)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 146 ARE UP NOW)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP
-TOP 131 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (Full Positional Targets Articles coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

1) Having a mind of your own is one of the most important attributes for a good dynasty owner. Every good dynasty owner I’ve ever played against has their own unique strategy and their own type of player they love going after. There is no edge in just following the crowd and taking the player you think you should take based on perceived value. And the crowd is wrong all the time, especially when it comes to prospecting. Predicting the future is impossible. I hope with my writing that I’m not only telling you which players to go after, but I’m also giving you my playbook and mindset in how I think about players and the game in general, so that you can incorporate that into your own unique strategy. Don’t be afraid to go out on a limb when your gut is telling you someone is getting massively underrated. Hitting on someone nobody else is in on is one of the most fun parts of the game.

2) Every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Miguel Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago (not to say I’m giving up on Bleis at all), while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

3) MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it. The 2022 ball killed those guys. Big EV hitters are much more ball proof than low EV hitters. Everybody seemed to love the way the game was played in 2023, fans and baseball executives alike, so I don’t see why they would intentionally change the juiciness of the ball (I know they have experimented with tackier balls too, which is an entirely other discussion), but I’m not sure how it can’t be in the back of our minds while valuing players for next season.

4) I know I talk about going with your gut and thinking with a mind of your own a lot, but trade value has to be at least a consideration, and possibly a major consideration depending on your contention cycle, when drafting prospects. Prospects should be looked at as trade chips just as much, if not more, than they should be looked at as future core pieces of your team. If you draft a farm system of only underrated prospects that your league mates may have barely even heard of, you will have absolutely no leverage in trade talks for win now players. Trying to convince a trading partner of why mainstream lists are flawed, and that this guy who nobody is taking about is actually the better prospect is a fool’s errand. So especially as a contending team, even if you are lower on say Colson Montgomery than his perceived value, you may still want to pick him over a prospect you like a little better, because his hype will bring you back a much better return than your favorite underrated prospect.  And there is always a chance that underrated prospect makes it back to you with the next pick, maximizing the value you come out of the draft with.

5) Landon Sims is a good reminder to pick your spots when going after pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery. Gunnar Hoglund is another good reminder. Both came back with diminished stuff and poor results. It’s why I generally like to stick with taking the discount on already established MLB pitchers or truly elite prospect pitchers (I liked Sims and Hoglund, so I also got sucked in a bit). When you start to wade in the waters of good, but not elite prospects who are obviously still unproven, it adds a lot of risk onto an already very risky profile. Not only do they need to come back completely healthy, they also need to still prove they can be legitimate impact starters not only in pro ball, but down the line in the majors. And it’s not like there isn’t a long line of busted pitching prospects due to elbow injuries. I’m still not counting Sims and Hoglund out. It might just be taking them a bit longer to get back to full health, but if you do take the discount on pitchers in that range, make sure it is a very real, deep discount.

6) Development isn’t linear, and that goes tenfold for pitchers, but it can be hard to figure out how to apply that knowledge in practice, rather than just in theory. So I appreciate DL Hall making it really easy on us. Just as his dynasty value and ranking on prospect lists have fallen off a cliff to levels lower than it’s ever been, is when his target status has never been juicier for me. The velocity dipped in the first half of the season, he hasn’t been able to meaningfully improve his control in 6 years, and the bullpen is calling his name, so people are starting to give up. But his velocity bounced back in the 2nd half and he had a legitimate reason for the 1st half dip. He showed glimpses of improved control for the first time in his career, and he showed the potential for dominant performance on the MLB level. And of course, the filthy stuff that made him so hyped earlier in his career is still there with an elite mid 90’s fastball and 2 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. I’ve never been higher and more excited about him, and his value has never been lower. Baltimore announced they still view him as a starter long term, so even if he likely starts the year in the pen, stay patient.

7) One of the biggest mistakes I make in fantasy is feeling scorned by a player who I bet on breaking out that didn’t end up breaking out, and then writing them off for the next season. “Hell hath no fury like a fantasy owner scorned.” But if all of the same reasons are still there that made you like that player in the first place, don’t let your emotions get in the way, go right back to that well the next year. My biggest regret was doing this with Jose Ramirez. I grabbed him for cheap in 2015, he didn’t breakout, and then I didn’t go after him in 2016 when he began his ascent. Of course, you don’t want to go to the other extreme which is never giving up on a player and letting him disappoint you over and over again. You have to know when to move on. But as long as the same reasons are present to love a player that were there the prior season, giving them one more chance is the right move, and you might be able to get them even cheaper the next year.

8) Houston is the home of the underrated prospect, which combined with their great developmental reputation, makes them the gift that keeps on giving. Yainer Diaz was the latest victim. Shit, even Yordan Alvarez got way underrated back in 2019 with him sliding completely off some mainstream Top 100 lists. I was the high guy on him by a comfortable margin at 25, for the record. Now Melton and Matthews sit atop the Astros list with so much upside, and so little relative hype. I’m going to keep going to the Houston well.

9) I talked about it on a Mailbag Podcast during the season, but the reason I don’t write a ton of Sell articles, is because it’s not really how I play the game. I rarely (but not never) target a player on my own team to sell who I think is overrated. There is a reason I acquired that player in the first place, so if they broke out and are playing well, my first instinct isn’t to immediately try and trade them. I’m looking at that player as a potential core piece of my team. Trades usually come together by me targeting players on someone else’s team, and then seeing where we match up and who they like on my team. Or if I have a surplus at a certain position, I will put everyone at that position on the block to maximize my chances of matching up with another team and finding a fair deal. The exception to this is taking over an orphan team where you didn’t acquire the players. Then I will 100% identify players who I was never the high guy on and think their perceived value will never be higher.

10) I don’t think there is a single bucket of prospect that the Angels have shown any proficiency in developing … well, except maybe the Hall of Famer bucket. Even the Angels couldn’t F up Mike Trout. It took them 7 years to develop Taylor Ward who was the 26th overall pick in 2015 and an advanced college bat. What an average organization can do in 3 years, the Angels will over double that. They seem to have almost entirely quit on the idea of “development” all together, just picking ready made prospects and rushing them to the majors (Neto, Schanuel, Joyce, Silseth). Do you like high risk, high reward prospects with plus power/speed combos and hit tool issues? The Angels love these prospects too, and they have a prospect graveyard full of them to prove it (Adell, Jordyn Adams, Alexander Ramirez, Werner Blakely, and Kyren Paris is up next). International prospects? Crickets. Pitching? Stagnant/non existent development across all levels. O’Hoppe, Neto, Canning, and Silseth (to a lesser extent) are all still targets for me, but the only thing I can hang my hat on, is that the Angels have been so horrific with developing players of late there has to be some kind of positive regression coming, right? They can’t actually be this bad. It has to even out at some point.

11) Opportunity is a major factor in success. I always think about how many players could have been successful major leaguers if they were given a legit opportunity and had the leash to make adjustments. As much as we want to fall in love with every poor defensive masher, or lightening fast utility type player, we have to account for the fact those types may very well never really get the opportunity to reach their full potential. There are only so many jobs available in major league baseball, and the vets who are on million dollar deals, or the high draft picks, or the high signing bonus players will get the priority over our favorite underrated prospects. Having said that, I’m going to ignore everything I just said and still go after the defensively limited Mark Vientos this off-season. It’s easier to give advice than to take it 😉

12) Erick Fedde went to Korea and absolutely dominated with a pitching line of 2.00/0.95/209/35 in 180.1 IP. He was named MVP. Whenever players leave for foreign leagues and dominant, it always adds some unknown intrigue that immediately makes them more interesting for fantasy. He didn’t add velocity, but he made tweaks to his slider and changeup. It’s always better to take a shot on unknown upside than known mediocrity when it comes to the last few rounds of the draft/$1 players in auctions, so he’s worth the last spot on your roster even in a shallower league.

13) It’s not easy knowing when to sell an established veteran and when to let it ride. It’s like buying stocks. Getting in is the easy part. It’s the knowing when to sell that is the hard part. You can take the Bill Belichick approach of thinking it’s better to get out a year too early than a year too late, but “a year too early” can often end up being like 5 years too early if you aren’t careful. Baseball isn’t the NFL. On the flip side, dealing older vets for unproven, potential young studs can often look fair at the time the trade is made, but look like the dumbest trade ever just a couple years later when the vet starts declining and the young stud becomes a consensus Top 10 dynasty asset. I have no hard and set advice here. It’s a case by case basis depending on your team and the player. I just find it an interesting discussion, and a large part of what makes dynasty such a fun/strategic game.

14) The Toronto Blue Jays system is perfect to use as a reminder that no dynasty rankings are meant to be taken as gospel. The beauty of dynasty is that there are so many factors and strategies to take into account for both your specific league and your specific team. Toronto has a lot of fringy proximity plays who would be much more attractive in deeper leagues. In a shallower league, it isn’t a good use of roster/prospect spots to hold a low-ish upside player who isn’t guaranteed playing time. It’s not necessarily because they can’t provide good value at peak, it’s because of how much easier it is to acquire a vet who is already putting up similar numbers to their projected peak. You need to be targeting players who have the potential to turn into beasts that aren’t easy to acquire, or are impossible to acquire. In a deeper league with little on the waiver wire, these type of proximity plays at least have the potential to make a real impact.

15) I always caution against changing your opinion too much on a hitter because they put up big stats in the extreme hitter’s environment of the AFL, but there were actually more than a few AFL standouts in 2022 who had big breakouts in 2023. Edouard Julien led the league amongst qualified hitters with a 1.249 OPS, and he just put up a 136 wRC+ in the majors this year. Heston Kjerstad’s 1.007 OPS was 6th best and he exploded up rankings in 2023. Colt Keith’s 1.004 OPS was 7th best and he also exploded up rankings. I never want to be too closed minded to change my mind when evidence is presented that I might be too rigid in a certain stance or strategy. While I’m not all of a sudden going too crazy for every AFL standout, I am willing to start putting more weight on the breakouts, and I’m going to start by ranking Jakob Marsee much higher than I did during the regular season. I slept on him too much in my in-season rankings this year.

16) The Rise of the Pirates is definitely coming, and while 2025 might be a better bet for them to really start popping, good rebuilds tend to come together a year earlier than expected. I’ve talked about it in my Mailbag Podcasts, but I’ve been absolutely lights out with MLB win total over/unders these past two years. I wrote/tweeted about my bets on the Orioles and Rangers last off-season, and I did the same for my Twins bet the off-season before that. I think “Vegas” underrates the bubbling minor league systems of up and coming teams, and I’m already salivating over where they are going to set the Pirates and Reds win totals this off-season (spoiler alert, they set them very low at 72.5 for Pitt and 80 for Cincinnati, but both lines have risen since then). Pitt has so much young hitting talent already on the MLB level, and they have more than a few really good arms ready to make their debuts in 2024. I think they could be a team to surprise. The Reds are loaded with talent, they have great depth, and their pitching will get underrated with possible breakouts from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. Arms like Phillips, Richardson, Petty and Lowder are all knocking on the door as well. This is a team ready to explode.

17) The Tampa Bay Rays must subscribe to my Patreon, because I named Ryan Pepiot a Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Target back on September 26th, and the Rays went out and got him for Tyler Glasnow. The Rays are an organization that almost has to trade their studs when they are in the last year of team control, especially an injury prone pitcher, but targeting Pepiot tells you everything you need to know about him. Like me, they think he can be a legitimate impact starter. This trade likely raises his profile too high to still get great value on him, but I also like targeting him at his fair value.

18) Valera and DeLauter both got late starts to the season, and both started blowing up in the 2nd half (and into the AFL with DeLauter). Out of sight, out of mind, and putting more emphasis on the 1st half than the 2nd half are two negative tenets of the prospect world that you have to actively fight against. And if you can do it successfully, you will sweep up on great value that doesn’t get ranked correctly on prospect lists. Delauter is a near elite prospect who will probably get valued as more of a good one, and Valera is a good prospect who will probably get valued as more of a mediocre one. I’m taking the discounts on each.

19) This is a thought brought on by a question from a Patreon subscriber. When drafting in the 1st round of first year player drafts, and definitely when drafting at the top of the first round, you really shouldn’t be taking team needs into account. Those high picks are the ones you hope turn into such undeniable players that they will rise above whatever organizational surplus you have at that position. They could also be used as elite trade chips, or you can trade from the surplus you already have on your team, so it isn’t even a guarantee you will have a problem down the line. As you get deeper into the draft, that is when you can take team needs more into account pertaining to proximity/upside, pitcher/hitter etc … But I would caution against passing on say Wyatt Langford for Yoshinobu Yamamoto no matter how much you think Yamamoto fits your team more.

20) I find it fitting to close this 2024 Collection out with what I wrote the day after Thanksgiving in the Detroit Tigers Team Report: “There is no Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day today. I just wanted to use this space to say how thankful I am for each and every one of you. It’s a seriously amazing community we’ve built here, and it continues to light a fire in my stomach to produce the best dynasty content I can. Let’s kick some ass and get those championship banners hung in the rafters for 2024! Or if you’re rebuilding, let’s uncover those next elite dynasty assets before they explode!”

Strategy Articles from Previous Years
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2019
10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2021
16 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2023 (A Collection from the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-THE TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 350 ARE UP NOW)
-THE TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS DROP NEXT WEEK!!! (TOP 146 ARE UP NOW)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP
-TOP 131 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (Full Positional Targets Articles coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

 

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 300+ Starting Pitchers: 2024 Deep Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings (Patreon)

We enter the home stretch of our Deep Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings over on the Patreon with the men who throw high cheese, starting pitchers. I’m going over the 300 deep, and the top 132 are already up. Top 10 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and projections for every player. Here is the Top 300+ Starting Pitchers: 2024 Deep Dynasty Baseball Positional Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 350 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 146 PROSPECTS RANKS (Top 500 coming soon)
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Angels (free)–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

1) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

2) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 12/3.36/1.09/193 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP

3) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 15/3.27/1.05/230 in 200 IP

4) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. 2024 Projection: 14/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP

5) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP

6) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP

7) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

8) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP

9) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP

10) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 350 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 146 PROSPECTS RANKS (Top 500 coming soon)
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Angels (free)–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Angels 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Angels 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 146 PROSPECTS RANKS (Top 500 coming soon)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Griffin Canning LAA, RHP, 27.11 – I told you to put a star next to Kutter Crawford’s name as you fill out of the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation in the Boston Red Sox Dynasty Team Report, and Canning is in the very same class of target for me. Neither are big names, neither were super hyped prospects, and both showed signs of extremely exciting breakouts in 2023 that were hidden by less impressive surface stats. Canning’s fastball velocity ticked up to a career high 94.7 MPH, and it turned into a bat missing weapon with a 28.3% whiff%. The slider is plus with a .262 xwOBA, and he throws a legit 4 pitch mix rounded out by a solid changeup and curve. He put up a 29.1% whiff% overall which is in near elite territory, and like Kutter, the control took a big step forward with a plus 6.7% BB%. That is a very impressive profile, and the mediocre 4.32 ERA in 127 IP will keep his price mighty reasonable. Canning and Kutter aren’t sexy breakout picks, which is exactly what makes them excellent targets. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing. They seem boring, but they are actually quite dangerous. 2024 Projection: 10/3.76/1.24/165 in 150 IP

Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 23.10 – Silseth was very clearly rushed to the majors in 2022 based on team need (6.59 ERA with a 18.6% K%), and I was using it as a buying opportunity headed into 2023, writing in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “Silseth’s poor, rushed MLB debut has him going for a very reasonable price this off-season, because his stuff and minor league performance would have pushed his value much higher if he hadn’t debuted … Use the poor MLB debut as a buying opportunity.” … He was very predictably much better his 2nd run through the majors in 2023 with a 3.96 ERA and 25.3%/11.8% K%/BB% in 52.1 IP. The fastball sits 95 MPH, the splitter is a true put away pitch with a .190 xwOBA, the slider misses a respectable amount of bats with a 33.7% whiff%, and he added a cutter this year which was immediately an above average pitch with a .272 xwOBA. He needs to improve his control to take the next step, and considering he’s always had solid control going back to college, it’s a good bet that he will. 2024 Projection: 9/3.89/1.28/148 in 140 IP

Hitters

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.5 – The fun part about playing dynasty is the ability to be so far out ahead of the curve. I’m seeing O’Hoppe being called a sleeper this off-season, meanwhile, I named him a target back in February of 2022 when he was actually a sleeper, calling him “easily the most underrated catcher in the minors” in my 2022 Hitter Targets article (the 2024 version of that article comes out in early February on Patreon). He went down with a torn shoulder that required surgery on April 20th that kept him out for 4 months, but he proved to be completely healthy when he returned. His already above average power ticked up to double plus levels with a 90.5/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV and 19.6 degree launch, which led to 14 homers in just 51 games. The plate approach was below average, but not terribly so with a 24.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and while the .236 BA is low, it’s mostly the product of bad luck with a .240 BABIP and .260 xBA. I hope were able to get in for beans back in 2022, but even if you weren’t, he looks setup for a potentially monster 2024 and is worth his now higher price. 2024 Projection: 63/25/76/.248/.322/.468/0

Zach Neto LAA, SS, 23.2 – Ranking Neto 3rd overall on my 2023 FYPD Rankings (over the likes of the more highly regarded Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Cam Collier, and Gavin Cross) raised some eyebrows, and my reasoning for it ended up being right on point. I wrote in the 2023 FYPD Target & Strategy Guide (the 2024 version of that article is already out on the Patreon), “He’s one of those picks where he’ll quickly be contributing for LA and you’ll be scratching your head on why you just didn’t scoop this guy. LA has literally kept the SS position open for him.” The Angels calling up Nolan Schanuel just a month after being drafted makes it look like they handled Neto with kid gloves, but at the time it seemed quite aggressive to call Neto up after just a couple weeks into his first full season of pro ball, surprising even me. He didn’t play particularly well offensively with a 89 wRC+ in 84 games, but the 8.8% Barrel%, 89.1/94.2 MPH FB/LD EV, 14.5 degree launch, and 23.4% K% portends very good things for the future. He’s also a plus defensive SS, so his glove will most certainly keep him on the field. I know Schanuel’s debut overshadows how quickly they called up Neto, but even the fact Neto was able to hold his own was impressive coming from a non major college conference. He’s set up to have an excellent 2024 season. 2024 Projection: 79/20/74/.256/.322/.425/12

Bullpen

Carlos Estevez LAA, Closer, 31.3 – Estevez has one half of the elite closer formula with a plus 97.1 MPH fastball that notched a 28.5% whiff%, but he lacks the half second half, which is a whiff machine secondary. The slider is mediocre with a 25.6% whiff% and .332 xwOBA. His control also isn’t good enough to dominate with just the fastball with a 11% BB%. It led to a 3.90 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 27.8% K% in 62.1 IP. He can definitely be a more than serviceable fantasy closer in 2024, but Jose Soriano and Ben Joyce are both breathing down his neck (see the prospects rankings below), and he’s a free agent after this year, so banking on him to remain a closer beyond 2024 is risky. 2024 Projection: 4/3.74/1.29/75/30 saves in 62 IP

Los Angeles Angels Top 10 Dynasty Prospects

1) Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 11th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Schanuel is a classic Angels first round pick as a safe, fast moving college bat. And boy did he move fast as they sped him through the minors, jumping straight from Double-A to the majors on August 18th. To their credit, Schanuel was ready for the challenge with a 14.5%/15.2% K%/BB% and 112 wRC+ in 29 games. He put up a 14/71 K/BB in 59 games in Conference USA, and a 9/16 K/BB in 17 games at Double-A, so the plate approach certainly looks to be in the elite range. The problem is that the power/speed combo is majorly lacking. He put up a lowly 85.4 MPH EV with a 6.5 degree launch and 26.8 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors. It resulted only 1 homer and 0 steals. He hit the ball very weakly in the minors too with a 10.3% Hard Hit% and only 1 homer in 22 games. He did hit for more power in college with 19 homers this year, and he’s 6’4”, 220 pounds, so there is certainly more in the tank, but it doesn’t look like power is going to be a major part of his game. Buying a hit tool first 1B isn’t my optimal strategy, so I’m not overly high on Schanuel, but calling him the safest, most proximiest (I know that isn’t a word) bat in first year player drafts is an understatement. 2024 Projection: 80/15/70/.270/.355/.400/5 Prime Projection: 92/18/73/.291/.382/.437/6

2) Nelson Rada LAA, OF, 18.8 – Rada skipped right over complex ball to make his stateside debut at Single-A, and he wasn’t rattled with a 113 wRC+ and 18.1%/13.5% K%/BB% in 115 games. As a 17 year old, that is very impressive. He combines the mature plate approach with plus speed that he used to rack up 55 steals, but he doesn’t have much power (2 homers), and he doesn’t really project to have a ton of power down the line either. He had a 63.7% GB%, and he’s already relatively filled out at 5’10”. Obviously the power is only going to tick up from here, so how much he’s able to get to will determine his upside, but he set a very nice floor for himself in 2023. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/51/.273/.348/.403/27

3) Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 22.5 – I don’t know how we can trust the Angels to develop this kind of high risk, high reward prospect when so so many of them have stalled out at all levels of their system.  Paris put up a super fun fantasy line at Double-A with 14 homers and 44 steals in 113 games, but it came with a 29.4% K%, and then right on cue it jumped to 37% with a .100 BA in 46 MLB PA. He’s an OBP machine with a 17.1% BB%, he has double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, and he has average to above average power potential, but are we really betting on LA being the team to get his hit tool to a playable level? Even in Tampa, these guys sometimes don’t really start contributing until their mid to late 20’s. I have no problem taking a shot on him, but I think you have to assume it’s not going to work out, and if it does, it might take 3-5 years when he’s probably long off your roster. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/18/64/.227/.318/.413/24

4) Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – The 6’4”, 215 pound Dana is a strong kid who throws with the football like, at the ear throwing motion that always produces high spin rates. The combination of power and spin created a mid 90’s fastball with a ton of life that lower minors hitters swing right through. He pairs the plus fastball with a potentially plus slider, average curve and a lesser used, developing changeup. He put up a 3.56 ERA with a 31.7%/10.7% K%/BB% in 68.1 IP at mostly High-A. His control is a bit scattershot, he needs to continue to refine his secondaries, and he was shut down in mid July with arm fatigue, so he also needs to prove he can stay healthy with a full workload. There is a long way to go, but he established some strong building blocks towards his potentially impact mid-rotation starter upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.97/1.31/165 in 160 IP

5) Joswa Lugo LAA, SS, 17.2 – Lugo is expected to land one of the top 10 signing bonuses in the 2024 international class. He is already a relatively physical presence in the box at 6’2”, 175 pounds, and he’s still only 16 years old as of this writing. He has easy plus power at peak, and he does it with a smooth, effortless, and controlled righty swing. The hit/power combo has plus potential at peak, and he’s a good athlete too. There is middle of the order, complete hitter potential, but he has all the requisite mystery and risk that comes with shopping in the 16/17 year old international market. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 82/26/86/.269/.340/.468/8

6) Jose Soriano LAA, Setup, 25.6 – Soriano looks like next man up in LA, and he might be the favorite for the closer of the future job when Estevez hits free agency after this season (Ben Joyce will be in the mix as well). He most certainly has closer stuff with two upper 90’s fastballs (98.8 MPH 4-seamer and 96.6 MPH sinker) and a double plus, bat missing curve (.236 xwOBA with a 47.1% whiff%). It resulted in a 3.64 ERA with a 30.4%/12.4% K%/BB% in 42 IP, His 36.2% whiff% is in the true elite zone. He exceeded rookie eligibility in 2023 based on service time, but most of my leagues use the 130 AB and 50 IP threshold to be considered a prospect, so that is the standard I use for my prospect lists. Soriano has the strikeout upside to provide real fantasy value in a setup role, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him closing after the 2024 trade deadline either. 2024 Projection: 4/3.51/1.26/85/9 saves in 65 IP

7) Ben Joyce LAA, Setup, 23.7 – Joyce made it look easy in his pro debut in 2022, jumping straight into Double-A and dominating with a 2.08 ERA with a 35.1%/7.0% K%/BB% in 13 IP, but 2023 was a completely different story. He struggled at both Double-A (4.60 ERA with a 34.3%/18.6% K%/BB% in 15.2 IP) and the majors (5.40 ERA with a 20.8%/18.8% K%/BB% in 10 IP). He missed 3 months mid-season with ulnar neuritis, adding injury risk onto the profile. The insane fastball velocity was still there with a 100.9 MPH fastball, but despite the velocity, it only played as an above average pitch at best on the MLB level, and the slider was average at best with a .319 xwOBA and 31.3% whiff%. Maybe he wasn’t quite healthy, or maybe it was a developmental bump in the road, but his inevitable beeline to the closer role doesn’t look all that inevitable anymore. His weak 2023 might have had Jose Soriano pass him in the pecking order, even if he does have a much better 2024 like I’m expecting. 2024 Projection: 3/3.82/1.31/67/5 saves in 55 IP

8) Barrett Kent LAA, RHP, 19.7 – Selected 234th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft and signed for an over slot $1 million, the 6’4”, 215 pound Kent leads with a mid 90’s fastball that he pairs with two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. The changeup actually might have double plus potential with nasty diving and tailing action. He dominated in his pro debut with a 0.00 ERA and 27.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 8.2 IP at rookie and Single-A. The delivery isn’t particularly athletic, he doesn’t consistently maintain his velocity, and his secondaries need refinement, so plenty of improvement is needed all around. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.19/1.32/150 in 150 IP

9) Sam Bachman LAA, RHP, 24.7 – The Angels system is brutally bad, which is evidence enough to stay away from their prospects in any kind of situation where you are torn on two players. The tie goes to any other team but the Angels. Bachman and the #10 prospect, Stefanic, make this list by default as proximity plays in deep leagues. Bachman immediately took 5 steps back the second the Angels got their hands on him. It’s almost like history is repeating itself with Joyce now. Like Joyce, Bachman looked good in his pro debut in his draft year before the Angels were able to mess with him (3.77 ERA with a 25.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 14.1 IP at High-A). He then imploded in on himself with injuries and terrible performance in 2022 and 2023. This year, he put up a 5.81 ERA with a 24.6%/16.9% K%/BB% in 26.1 IP at Double-A, and a 3.18 ERA with a 18.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 17 IP in the majors. His season ended in July with shoulder inflammation. The stuff is still huge with a 96.9 MPH fastball, but it performed as a below average pitch in the majors, and the slider was above average at best with a 34% whiff%. The Angels say they are still developing him as a starter, which I’m not sure is a good thing or a bad thing for his fantasy value at this point. Middle reliever is the most likely outcome, but the stuff, proximity and pedigree (9th overall pick) is enough to stay interesting in a barren system. 2024 Projection: 2/4.21/1.38/54 in 60 IP

10) Michael Stefanic LAA, 2B/3B, 28.1 – Stefanic is the Angels new David Fletcher. He has a truly elite plate approach/contact rates and nothing else. He put up a 7.3%/13.2% K%/BB% in 99 games at Triple-A (139 wRC+) and then did the same in the majors with a 11.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 71 PA (109 wRC+). Unfortunately, he has only 1 barrel in 104 MLB batted balls with a 26 ft/sec sprint. He’s a utility infielder, but if he does work his way into playing time, he could be a positive for BA and OBP. 2024 Projection: 29/4/26/.265/.339/.378/4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I don’t think there is a single bucket of prospect that the Angels have shown any proficiency in developing … well, except maybe the Hall of Famer bucket. Even the Angels couldn’t F up Mike Trout. It took them 7 years to develop Taylor Ward who was the 26th overall pick in 2015 and an advanced college bat. What an average organization can do in 3 years, the Angels will over double that. They seem to have almost entirely quit on the idea of “development” all together, just picking ready made prospects and rushing them to the majors (Neto, Schanuel, Joyce, Silseth). Do you like high risk, high reward prospects with plus power/speed combos and hit tool issues? The Angels love these prospects too, and they have a prospect graveyard full of them to prove it (Adell, Jordyn Adams, Werner Blakely, and Kyren Paris is up next). International prospects? Crickets. Pitching? Stagnant/non existent development across all levels. O’Hoppe, Neto, Canning, and Silseth (to a lesser extent) are all still targets for me, but the only thing I can hang my hat on, is that the Angels have been so horrific with developing players of late there has to be some kind of positive regression coming, right? They can’t actually be this bad. It has to even out at some point.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 146 PROSPECTS RANKS (Top 500 coming soon)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I actually went 144 prospects deep because here at Imaginary Brick Wall we break the mold. I would value everyone on this list as a “Top 100 Prospect,” because the deeper you get into prospect lists, the more the values even out. The top 21 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and prime projections for every player. The full Top 500+ prospect list will drop the first of February on the Patreon, along with the Top 1000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
–FYPD TARGET & STRATEGY GUIDE
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

1) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

3) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

4) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 57/20/64/.260/.323/.462/6 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

5) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

6) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022, he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

7) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – When it comes to potentially elite, all category hitting prospects, you have to pry them from my cold dead hands, which is why I would struggle to give up any of the hitting prospects ranked above for Yamamoto (or even the few ranked after him depending on my team build). In fantasy, pitchers can’t contribute in every pitching category (saves at least, and some leagues have both saves and holds), so that right there limits their upside relative to an elite hitter. Not to mention the much much much higher injury risk which can knock out 2 years of their career off a single injury, and then the stress of whether or not they will get back to 100%. On a real life list, I can see ranking Yamamoto 1st overall, but for fantasy, it’s just not how I play the game, even for a pitcher that is expected to be as good as Yamamoto. The Dodgers made him the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

8) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

9) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in my Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

10) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/26/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

11) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

12) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

13) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Crews, and Yamamoto are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate ha) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

14) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. The only things preventing him from being ranked even higher is that he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts. He hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

15) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.9 – Jobe made his season debut in mid June from lumber spine inflammation, which obviously sounded worse than it really was, because he immediately looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball when he returned. He had a 2.81 ERA with a 32.6%/2.3% K%/BB% in 64 IP at mostly High-A. He closed the season out with a gem at Double-A, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB, and then he went to the AFL and dominated in that extreme hitter’s environment with a 2.87 ERA and 19/5 K/BB in 15.2 IP. He looks absolutely electric on the mound at 6’2”, 190 pounds with an athletic delivery and a double plus 4 pitch mix. He was known for his high spin slider coming into the draft, and the pitch is so filthy it almost doesn’t look real. His changeup dominated as well with nasty tailing diving action, the fastball sits mid 90’s with excellent movement, and the cutter is a high spin pitch that misses bats. And he does all of this with pinpoint control. He still has to prove it in the upper minors, which I’m not too concerned about, and he has to prove he can stay healthy and maintain his stuff with a full MLB starters workload, which is more concerning, but that’s just the pitching prospect game. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball, non Yoshinobu Yamamoto division. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.03/220 in 180 IP

16) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

17) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

18) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 21.7 – Tiedemann’s dominance in the AFL quieted some of the risk that was growing after an injured and mixed bag season in 2023. He had a 2.50 ERA with a 23/8 K/BB in 18 IP. He went 5 IP in 3 of the 4 starts after not reaching 5 IP the entire season. The stuff is elite with a mid 90’s fastball and two plus secondaries in his slider and changeup. He also looks the part at 6’4”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery. If he stays healthy and throws the ball over the plate, he’ll be an easy ace, but those are the two areas that can trip him up. He pitched only 62 innings all year, including the AFL, because of a biceps injury that kept him out for almost 3 months. It will probably take 3 years to truly build up his innings fully, and we all know the injury risk with young flamethrowers like this. His 12% BB% is also nearing the danger zone where inconsistency can end up a part of the profile. The profile isn’t without risk, but when dealing in upside prospect flamethrowers, that is just the game. He’s an elite pitching prospect. 2024 Projection: 5/3.81/1.31/111 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.38/1.19/213 in 170 IP

19) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 24.5 – I know this ranking seems high, but Meadows is looking mighty similar to my Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof buy calls from mid-season, and if you look at redraft and dynasty rankings this off-season, those guys now get valued in the range that elite prospects get ranked, or even higher. Meadows has the potential to make that same jump from afterthought prospect to highly valued dynasty asset, and you should get in this off-season before it happens. He has a very fantasy friendly skillset with the build and athleticism to back it up, but he always got vastly underrated on prospect lists. And unlike Jones and Gelof who have played far too well to still be underrated this off-season, Meadows is setting up to be in perfect buy territory with a .699 OPS in 37 games. He had a 89.3 MPH EV, 18.3 degree launch, 29 ft/sec sprint, 24% whiff%, and 11.7% BB%. And to top it all off, his at least above average CF defense should keep him in the lineup. That is a recipe for tons of fantasy goodness, and you might be able to acquire him for barely anything this off-season. His 293 NFBC ADP shows his perceived value to fantasy upside could be as wide as anyone’s right now. He’s a major target. 2024 Projection: 79/23/76/.248/.328/.432/24

20) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.8 – Keith more than hinted at a big breakout in 2022 with a 150 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, but a shoulder injury cut the explosion short, and even though he made it back to dominate the AFL (1.004 OPS in 19 games), the hype was still relatively subdued last off-season. Well, the explosion continued right into 2023, and this time he did it in the upper minors with a 163 wRC+ and 14 homers in 59 games at Double-A, followed up by a 119 wRC+ and 13 homers in 67 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball very hard, he has a mature plate approach, and the hit tool is at least above average. He’s one of the most complete prospect hitters in the game, and he should break camp with the team in 2024. 2024 Projection: 74/24/81/.258/.329/.445/2 Prime Projection: 89/29/92/.276/.352/.480/3

21) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
–FYPD TARGET & STRATEGY GUIDE
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Patreon: Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

It’s First Year Player Draft Week over on the Patreon, and we kick it off with the Top 131 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. Top 13 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The FYPD Target and Strategy Guide is coming tomorrow. Here is the Top 130 2024 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

1) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I know that taking the ready made ace in Yamamoto is extremely enticing, but there is no better asset in dynasty baseball than the young, impact all category beast, and Langford has a very good chance to become that. Building your team around a young pitcher is so much more risky. Just look at Ohtani who already had 2 major elbow surgeries that will knock out 3 of his 7 MLB seasons, but he’s been able to hit like a beast through it all. Unlike Ohtani, Yamamoto doesn’t hit. Langford was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package. I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/16 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/20

2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

3) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and also for me to prefer the newly minted highest paid pitcher in baseball history (Yamamoto), but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

4) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.1 – Selected 5th overall, the 6’3”, 215 pounds Jenkins has that sweet lefty swing that just oozes offensive potential. It’s athletic, quick, under control, powerful, smooth … I can go on and on. It’s hard to watch this guy hit and not completely fall in love. It has the potential for at least plus hit and plus power at peak, and he’s also a good athlete with above average run times. But we don’t have to only dream on the potential, as Jenkins’ showed it to us clear as day in his pro debut, slashing .362/.417/.571 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 12.2%/7.8% K%/BB% in 26 games split evenly between rookie ball (138 wRC+) and Single-A (182 wRC+). It’s the type of profile that can be an elite dynasty asset a la Kyle Tucker. Langford, Yamamoto, and Crews are locked in as my top 3 FYPD picks, and while there are good arguments for Skenes or even Matt Shaw at #4, I don’t think I can pass up on the truly “generational” (or maybe nearly generational would be more accurate) upside of Jenkins. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 94/31/102/.273/.345/.510/16

5) Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 1st overall, Skenes’ season was nothing short of jaw dropping with a pitching line of 1.69/0.75/209/20 in 122.2 IP in the SEC. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and routinely hits over 100 MPH. His slider is elite, and while he didn’t go to his changeup as much, that pitch is also nasty. He also displayed plus control of his entire arsenal. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a relatively athletic delivery and he’s a good athlete in general as evidenced by the fact he is also an excellent hitter. He had a career 1.121 OPS in 119 games in the Mountain West before transferring into the SEC. There were some whispers about poor fastball shape in his 6.2 IP pro debut, but I wouldn’t let that sour you on a generational type pitching prospect. He’ll still be just 21 years old on Opening Day, so plenty of refinement, tinkering, new pitches etc … are coming down the road. 2024 Projection: 8/3.80/1.27/133 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.28/1.06/237 in 190 IP

6) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

7) Max Clark DET, OF, 19.4 –  Clark is the 2023 draft version of Pete Crow Armstrong and Corbin Carroll, two guys who I was the high man on in their first year player draft class, although Clark actually got the respect he deserved by getting selected 3rd overall. Maybe the success of those aforementioned players paved the way for a guy like Clark to get valued correctly. As you can tell from the comps, double plus speed with a plus hit tool and developing power is what you are buying. He’s a pretty thick and muscular 6’1”, 190 pounds, so I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see legitimate power developing down the line, even if he’s more a line drive hitter currently. After dominating rookie ball with a 146 wRC+ in 12 games, he got slowed down a bit at Single-A with a 73 wRC+ and 29.4% K% in 11 games, but he still had a .353 OBP, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. 5×5 BA leagues are going to be his bread and butter, but like Carroll, he can be a beast regardless of league type. He has elite dynasty asset upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/18/72/.278/.347/.433/33

8) Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – Selected 22nd overall, the 6’1”, 195 pound Emerson had an electric pro debut, both statistically and visually. He slashed .374/.496/.550 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 17.5%/14.9% K%/BB% in 24 games at rookie ball (251 wRC+) and Single-A (147 wRC+). He has an athletic, lightning quick lefty swing that the ball absolutely rockets off of. It’s geared for both power and average. He’s not a true burner, but he has speed and he was perfect on the bases. He’ll also be 18 years old for most of the 2024 season. He checks off almost every box that you look for in a potential elite prospect coming out of the draft (size, power, average, speed, age, sweet swing, production). If you’re drafting in the mid to late 1st round, and all the buzzy names are off the board, you can confidently take Emerson knowing he can easily end up amongst the best in the class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 93/26/86/.277/.356/.475/15

9) Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – San Francisco signed Lee to a 6 year, $113 million contract, which is definitely an eye opening amount, but he earned that contract for his real life baseball value, and not for his fantasy value. He had extremely high groundball rates in Korea with a 59.2% GB% in 2023, and he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. He hit only 6 homers in 86 games. He has speed, but he’s not a true burner, and he hasn’t been a good base stealer. He was 6 for 9 in 2023 and has a career high of 13 steals in 20 attempts. He also fractured his ankle in July which required season ending surgery, so that adds even more risk to his future steal projections. And to top it all off, he landed in one of the very worst hitter’s parks in the league. He’s truly elite at what he does well though, and that is hit for average. He had a 5.9%/12.7% K%/BB% in 2023, and he has a career .340 BA. He was a baseball prodigy with baseball bloodlines, dominating the KBO from the time he was 18 years old with a sweet lefty swing. He’s not a small guy at 6’0”, and there is most certainly room to tack on mass at a relatively skinny 171 pounds. He has a little bit of that Ichiro feel to him, where if he wanted to hit for more power, he would, and he did crack 23 homers in 142 games in 2022, so it’s not like he’s been some light hitter in his career. It’s also possible he runs a lot more with the new stolen base rules in MLB. It might take him a couple years to get fully acclimated like it has Ha-Seong Kim, but once he does, a .300/15/15 season looks well within reach, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 20/20. He might be more valuable in real life than fantasy, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be a very good fantasy player. 2024 Projection: 81/11/51/.285/.341/.401/12 Prime Projection: 93/15/62/.305/.371/.437/15

10) Tommy Troy ARI, 3B/2B, 21.8 – Selected 12th overall, the first thing that pops out when watching Troy is his absolute vicious bat speed and rotation. It’s controlled violence at it’s finest. He used that explosive swing to have a monster junior year, slashing .394/.478/.699 with 17 homers, 17 steals, and a 42/35 K/BB in 58 Pac12 games. He’s not a huge tools guy at 5’10”, 197 pounds, so the power/speed combo might not be huge on the Major League level, but he at least proved it will transfer to wood bats in pro ball, slashing .247/.343/.447 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 26.3%/12.1% K%/BB% in 23 games at High-A. His hit tool is good, but there is still some swing and miss in his game which popped up in his pro debut. There is definitely a chance the upside might not end up being very high, but he does a lot of things well, and like I highlighted above, the swing is truly impressive to me. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/20/76/.255/.330/.441/20

11) Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 18th overall, the 6’4”, 225 pound Wilken is almost the exact definition of a lurking slugger. He quite literally lurks over the plate with an eerily calm and foreboding batting stance which he used to unleash 31 homers in 66 ACC games. He then stepped right into pro ball and raked with a .887 OPS in 47 games split between rookie, High-A, and Double-A. He has the huge EV’s to back up the power. The hit tool and plate approach made big jumps this year with a .345 BA and 58/69 K/BB in college, but he still isn’t expected to hit for much average, and a 36% K% in 6 games at Double-A hints at the hit tool risk. You are buying the monster power here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/31/87/.247/.332/.495/3

12) Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – Last year in the Felnin Celesten blurb, I wrote, “Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market.” … obviously Celesten didn’t have the opportunity to pop, but I nailed my observation that 2023 was the year to jump back into the international player pool market with Ethan Salas and Sebastian Walcott exploding (along with Joendry Vargas and others). But now that we are coming off that international prospect explosion, prices are going to be much higher this year. And that starts with the top player in the 2024 international class, Leodalis De Vries. He has almost everything you look for in a potentially elite prospect. He’s a switch hitter at projectable 6’2”, 175 pounds with an extremely quick, loose, and athletic swing. He’s known for his mature plate approach and good feel to hit, and there is certainly plus power potential in here at peak. He’s also an excellent athlete with above average speed. The plate skills give him as high of a floor as you can get for a 17 year old international prospect, and the upside is considerable as well. International prospects are definitely the most mysterious and risky class of prospect to shop in, but when they hit, they hit in a huge way. De Vries is worth taking on the risk. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 89/24/86/.276/.352/.462/18

13) Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.1 – Pitcher’s don’t usually make big moves in either direction in their pro debut, but Waldrep bucked that trend. His double plus mid to upper 90’s fastball/splitter combo put up a 33.3% K% and 1.53 ERA in 29.1 IP spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). He also throws a curve and slider that both have plus potential. There is zero doubt about the strikeout ability with a 34.7% K% in 101.2 IP in the SEC in 2023 as well. The reason he only got selected 24th overall though, is that there is definitely some risk in his profile. The control is well below average with a 12.7% BB% at college and a 13.0% BB% in pro ball. He also had a mediocre college season with a 4.16 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and the K/BB numbers weren’t quite as impressive in the upper minors with a 16/10 K/BB in 14.1 IP at Double-A and Triple-A. Ending up in Atlanta is a great landing spot as they know what they are doing when it comes to pitching, so I’m more apt to go after him now than I would have been if he went to a lesser organization. And if you go K chasing in fantasy, which I do, Waldrep is mighty enticing despite the risk. 2024 Projection: 3/4.13/1.35/75 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.28/185 in 165 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals (free)–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. He ranked 35th on A Top 275 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 23.11 – Gorman’s swing and miss is in the danger zone with a 31.9% K% and 35.5% whiff%, and it made him an extremely streaky player in 2023. He alternated between red hot and ice cold, but it all added up to a classic low BA slugger type season, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers, 7 steals, and a 31.9%/11.4% K%/BB% in 119 games. He’s not a good defensive player, but St. Louis seems committed to getting his bat in the lineup, and looking up and down their organization, he’s one of their few young sluggers, so I’m not too worried about playing time long term. He also hits lefties well with a .840 OPS in 2023, so that shouldn’t be a major issue either. If his hit tool takes a step forward, he can be one of the best power hitters in the game, and even if it doesn’t, a 91 MPH EV, 22.2 degree launch, and 16.5% Barrel% ensures he will be an impact fantasy player no matter what. 2024 Projection: 77/33/90/.242/.331/.490/7

Pitchers

Lance Lynn STL, RHP, 36.11 – If the Dodgers couldn’t magically turn Lynn around, what hope do the rest of the mere mortals have? St. Louis is willing to give it a shot for a cool $11 million, but I wouldn’t even spend $11 of fake auction money on him. He had a 5.73 ERA (4.83 xERA) with a 5 year worst 23.6%/8.3% K%/BB% in 183.2 IP. His velocity is on a 5 year decline with it tanking to 92.6 MPH, and his 10.4% Barrel% is a career worst by far. Like I mentioned above, the Dodgers tried to work their magic, and while they did manage to bring his ERA down to 4.36 in 64 IP, they needed to kill his strikeout rate to do it with a 17.2% K%. He’ll be 37 years old about one month into the 2024 season, and his decline couldn’t be more clear cut, starting in 2022 and really hitting it’s stride in 2023. I do expect him to bounce back somewhat from his disaster season, and St. Louis is building a nursing home rotation of old, low velocity, pitch to contact pitchers, so maybe he can learn a thing or two about how to survive in your decline years, but his days of being a truly impact fantasy starter seem over. 2024 Projection: 10/4.27/1.31/158 in 165 IP

Sonny Gray STL, RHP, 34.5 – In Spring Training, Gray blamed his injury filled 2022 on not being prepared for the season due to the lockout, and he clearly wasn’t BS’ing with him throwing an 8 year high 184 IP in 2023. He put up a pitching line of 2.79/1.15/24.5%/7.3%. His whiff% bounced back in a major way with a 4.1 percentage point increase to 26%, and his velocity ticked back up 0.8 MPH to 92.9 MPH. St. Louis is clearly betting on him being able to keep it up as he enters his mid 30’s with a 3 year, $75 million contract, and I’m inclined to agree with them. 2024 Projection: 12/3.54/1.19/167 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 29.9 – Helsley seems in line for the full time closer role in 2024, but the Cards always like to sneak Giovanny Gallegos in there too, so I would expect Gallegos to steal a few saves here and there. It won’t matter though, because Helsley is dominant enough to overcome a handful of saves shaved off the top with a 2.46 ERA and 35.6%/11.6% K%/BB% in 36.2 IP. He throws a 99.7 MPH fastball to go along with an elite slider (52.2% whiff%) and elite curve (.144 xwOBA). His control is spotty, but plenty of relievers thrive with similar control issues, and a forearm strain knocked him out almost 3 months mid-season, but he looked healthy when he returned. He’s not without risk, but the elite upside is worth it. 2024 Projection: 4/2.65/1.09/83/30 saves in 60 IP

St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 22.0 – Winn’s 29 wRC+ in his 137 PA MLB Debut was the 4th worst mark in the league (130 PA min). If you want to look on the bright side, it could have been worse. He could have been Cam Gallagher with a negative 17. Winn earned that terrible wRC+ by hitting the ball very weakly with only 2 barrels in 101 batted balls, but surprisingly, nothing actually looks too concerning to me in the underlying numbers. An 86/91 MPH AVG/FB EV is honestly not that terrible of a starting point for a relatively skinny 21 year old, and his 87.6 MPH EV in the minors clearly shows he has the juice for more. He showed double plus speed with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, he got the bat on the ball with a 19%/7.3% K%/BB%, and he didn’t have any groundball issues with a 12.8 degree launch. He also got unlucky with a .196 BABIP and a .211 wOBA vs. .250 xwOBA, so the bad debut looked worse than it actually was. We saw plenty of players with a similar profile thrive in 2023, and I want to stress again, his EV numbers really aren’t in the true danger zone. Everything the Cardinals brass has said this off-season leads me to believe Winn is locked in as their Opening Day starting SS. All signs point towards him being much much better in 2024. 2024 Projection: 72/13/59/.241/.309/.388/21 Prime Projection: 83/17/64/.268/.330/.421/28

2) Thomas Saggese STL, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Saggese broke out in 2022, but many, including me, stayed skeptical because he’s not a big tools guy and the K%/plate approach weren’t particularly great, but some guys are just ballers, and Saggese balled out even harder in 2023. He slashed .306/.374/.530 with 26 homers, 12 steals, and a 22.9%/8.3% K%/BB% in 139 games at mostly Double-A. The same drawbacks that made me hesitant in 2022 are still present. His raw power is only average to potentially above average, he’s not fast, the plate approach isn’t great, and he’s not a big guy at 5’11”. But at some point, it’s silly to keep doubting a guy who is producing to this level. He’s obviously doing something right. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time and I would still hesitate to put big upside on him, but I’m willing to bet on him being a very good MLB hitter at peak. 2024 Projection: 18/5/23/.249/.308/.416/2 Prime Projection: 75/24/82/.266/.328/.444/8

3) Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – “Scott and the Case of the Missing Stolen Base.” If you look at Fangraphs, Scott led the entire minor leagues with 95 steals. Chandler Simpson was 2nd at 94 and Jonatan Clase was 3rd at 79. But if you look at Baseball Reference and MiLB.com, Scott only tied for 1st with 94 steals. Hmmmm … we need to hire a private dick to investigate the missing stolen base and then turn it into a 30 for 30 documentary. Then we can hire another private dick to figure out why private detectives are called private dicks. As you can clearly see, Scott has double plus speed and elite base stealing ability. He also has a good feel to hit with above average contact rates. He started the year at High-A with a 117 wRC+ in 66 games, and then he proved the skills will transfer to the upper minors, slashing .323/.373/.450 with 7 homers, 45 steals, and a 14.5%/5.8% K%/BB% in 66 games. The power is below average and he had relatively high K rates in college, so there’s definitely a chance he is an Estuery Ruiz like one trick pony, but like Ruiz, that one trick is so elite he can still be an impact fantasy player. Unlike Ruiz, he’s actually in a real organization where he won’t just be handed playing time. It seems likely that he will break into the bigs as a speedy 4th outfielder, and then have to earn more playing time from there. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/14/54/.262/.322/.398/52

4) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence finally met his match when he made it to Double-A with a 5.47 ERA and 22.2%/9.2% K%/BB% in 54.1 IP. It’s not great to see the production back up so much in the upper minors, but he was very young for the level, and he was blowing past his career high IP (96 IP). He also pitched very well at High-A with a 2.81 ERA and 27.9%/7.3% K%/BB%, and most importantly, he still looks absolutely electric on the mound. The delivery is extremely athletic, the mid to upper 90’s fastball explodes out of his hand, and the change, slider and curve all have plus potential. He doesn’t have prototypical starter size, but I think that is overblown in his case. He still screams ace upside to me, and I would take advantage of the hit to his value in 2023. Pitcher development is especially non linear. I expect him to have a big year in 2024. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/181 in 168 IP

5) Tekoah Roby STL, RHP, 22.6 – Roby is getting a ton of helium this off-season, and while I most certainly like him, my money is still on Hence as the best pitching prospect in this system. Roby put up a 4.63 ERA with a 28.9%/6.3% K%/BB% in 58.1 IP at Double-A. He missed almost 3 months of the season with a shoulder injury, but he looked like fire when he returned, and he also impressed in the AFL despite a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP. The stuff backs up the production with a mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and a potentially above average slider and change. He strikes me as a strong mid rotation type rather than a top of the rotation starter, and I think his relatively high home run rates and ERA bears that out. 2024 Projection: 2/4.28/1.33/48 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.86/1.24/175  in 170 IP

6) Chase Davis STL, OF, 22.4 – Selected 21st overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Davis went full Jacob Berry on us in his pro debut, and we saw Berry go from bad to worse in 2023. Davis’ pro debut was actually even worse than Berry’s with 0 homers, a 26% K% and .212 BA in 36 games at Single-A. It was good for a below average 91 wRC+ (Berry had a 118 wRC+). The most concerning thing was the lack of power with an 84.9 MPH EV. He also struggled to hit for power in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022 with 0 homers and a .629 OPS in 15 games. Those are scary numbers for a guy you are drafting for basically only his power. If you don’t want to put so much weight on the pro debut, Davis had a damn exciting junior year that got everyone excited going into the draft. He was a lefty power hitting beast who is a smooth operator in the box. I can honestly watch him crush homers all day. He cracked 21 homers in 57 Pac12 games this year. He’s not a particularly huge guy at 6’1”, but he’s a muscled up 216 pounds and the EV’s were legit in college. The swing is also very athletic, and he improved his hit tool this year (.362 BA with a 40/43 K/BB) after struggling with swing and miss in the past, but the struggles in pro ball show he still has a long way to go there too. I understand if you want to put more weight on the larger sample college production, but that would have been a mistake with Jacob Berry, and Davis seems to be headed down that same path. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/22/78/.242/.321/.437/7

7) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 23.10 – Herrera would rank higher on this list if he wasn’t blocked by Willson Contreras (under contract through 2027 at least), and I don’t think St. Louis will be particularly interested in trading him because depth is important and Contreras is getting up there in age. He dominated Triple-A, slashing .297/.451/.500 with 10 homers, 11 steals, and a 20.5%/20% K%/BB% in 83 games, and then he performed well in his cup of coffee in the majors with a 122 wRC+ and 91.3/100.4 MPH AVG/FB EV in 44 PA. He has the ability to be a complete hitter with an average to above average hit/power combo, but he might not get a full time job until 2028 barring trade (Contreras might be the more likely one to get traded) or injury. 2024 Projection: 23/4/18/.251/.328/.403/2 Prime Projection: 72/19/66/.268/.343/.432/6

8) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 23.0 – Hjerpe’s velocity did not tick up this year like many hoped with him sitting in the high 80’s to low 90’s. He has the type of hjerpe jerky, sidearm lefty delivery to make it work, but that is still dangerously low. He also didn’t have the most impressive pro debut from a statistical or injury standpoint. He put up a 3.51 ERA with a 29.8%/14.6% K%/BB% in 41 IP and missed 4 months of the season after undergoing surgery to get loose bodies removed from his elbow. Low velocity, poor control, and injury risk is not the 3 headed monster you are looking for. At this point, a #4 starter seems like a reasonable upside projection for him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.31/163 in 160 IP

9) Travis Honeyman STL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 90th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, the 6’2”, 190 pound Honeyman makes a ton of contact, hits the ball fairly hard, and has above average speed. That is a strong combination of skills, and it led to an excellent season in the ACC, slashing .304/.383/.534 with 6 homers, 10 steals, and a 11.5% 7.1% K%/BB% in 39 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter in college, but his frame definitely has room to add power, and he also hit 4 homers with a .930 OPS in 24 games in the wood bat Cape Cod League in 2022. I like Honeyman a lot, and he ranked 71st overall on the 2024 Top 130 First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/73/.264/.321/.422/17

10) Leonardo Bernal STL, C, 20.2 – Bernal’s game power is going to have to tick up to become an impact fantasy catcher with only 3 homers and a 28.9% FB% in 78 games at Single-A. He’s already pretty thick, so he’s going to have to make adjustments to unlock that power rather than it coming naturally with more strength. Everything else is there though with an advanced plate approach (17%/15.2% K%/BB%) and a potentially good glove behind the dish. I trust St. Louis to develop hitters like him, so he’s in a perfect organization. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/14/59/.267/.338/.412/3

Just Missed

11) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 24.0

12) Zack Showalter STL, RHP, 20.2

13) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 20.7

14) Zach Levenson STL, OF, 22.1 

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Cincinnati signs Frankie Montas to a 1 year, $16 million contract

The Reds are my favorite team headed into 2024, and they are doing everything right this off-season. Montas is a great upside bet to make, and they already signed a safer arm in Nick Martinez earlier in the off-season. They are my favorite win total O/U bet on the MLB slate. I locked them in at over 80 wins when the lines came out one month ago and it has already increased to 82.5 (I told you guys back in October in the Reds Team Report that ” I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at,” so I hope you got in early too). I still like them at over 82.5, and I like their +4000 World Series odds on Draft Kings a lot as well. The one problem is that with these signings, they might be apt to just hold onto their talented infield depth. Depth is extremely important for real life, and while it gives me yet another reason to love them in real life, it is a thorn in our fantasy sides. It sure feels like the odds of them making a trade has gone down, although I’m sure they are still listening in on offers. Regardless, India and CES owners need to start planning on them possibly not getting full time at bats.

Atlanta trades Vaughn Grissom to Boston for Chris Sale and $17 million 

Boston isn’t going to target Grissom in a 1 for 1 Chris Sale trade if they don’t have every intention of handing him the starting 2B job. This is a boon for Grissom’s dynasty value as he was stuck in no man’s land with Atlanta. Any value Emmanuel Valdez had is now gone, and Marcelo Mayer’s path to playing time gets a bit more complicated as well, but I wouldn’t get too hung up on that if you are a Mayer owner. As for Grissom, he’s a safety over upside bat with a plus hit tool and moderate power/speed combo. He should be a doubles machine in Fenway, wearing out the Green Monster. He just ranked 65th overall on my Top 161 Shortstop Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), but with this trade, I would fly him up the rankings to top 40 status. Sale’s value doesn’t change. He remains a reasonably priced target for a win now team.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 275 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS
-TOP 130 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles (free)–Boston Red Sox (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Los Angeles Dodgers (free)–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Oakland Athletics–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)