April 2024 – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on April 22, 2024April 22, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 15, 2024April 19, 2024 by Michael Halpern

April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep on the Patreon. Top 19 are free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. A spreadsheet is also available. Here is the April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season rankings are in parenthesis

1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.3 – I’m not ready to unseat Acuna from the top spot on April 15th. You can pick apart the underlying numbers, but with a player like Acuna, doing that a few weeks into the season is silly. Maybe the knee is bothering him, but he has 7 steals, so it can’t be bothering him that much. We’ll re-asses next month if he’s still struggling, but for now, he remains the top dog.

2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.10 – I ranked Witt 2nd overall on the Top 1,000 and closed out his blurb by writing, “There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024.” … I was way off, he’s actually been much better than that with a 1.086 OPS and all of the underlying numbers to match, namely a 97.6 MPH EV. If anyone was going to take the top spot from Acuna, it would be Witt, but I’m not there yet.

3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.3 – With a normal off-season, Tatis is back to his elite self with a .398 xwOBA, and his contact rates have been better than ever with a 14.3% K%. Maybe he got fully healthy coming off all of the surgeries, or maybe he’s back on the juice, but regardless, he’s back (I’m just half joking, I’m betting that he is just fully healthy)

4) (5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – It seems Ohtani has officially been absolved of any wrongdoing in the gambling scandal, and whether there is more to this story or not, Ohtani seems safe. The elbow injury also hasn’t impacted his hitting at all with a 1.048 OPS in 18 games.

5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.7 – I’ve been seeing a lot of sell low panic with Carroll, but with an elite player like Carroll, I would refuse to sell low under any circumstances. I would rather go down with the ship.

6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.3 – I saw this slow start coming from a mile away, starting Julio’s Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride.” The guy is quite clearly a slow starter. He will get hot eventually, like he has the past two seasons.

7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.6 – Soto is in the midst of that career year (1.009 OPS) that will land him that 1 Billi contract and put some respect back on Scott Boras’ name. 95.2 MPH EV and 13% K% are both at career best levels too

8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.2 – The quiet killer is back at it with a .460 xwOBA that is 10th best in the league. It’s kinda amazing how great Tucker is and how nobody really gives a crap

9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – I coined myself the Autobahn of Dynasty Baseball Schools, and I lived up to that billing ranking Elly 9th overall this off-season. He’s currently #6 overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I was too low. Sure he’ll strikeout out about 30% of the time, but the other 70% of the time he will do superhuman shit

10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.9 – .525 xwOBA leads the league. In leagues that devalue steals, he has an argument to be #1

Shadow10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 31.11 – Only Judge could have a 94.2 MPH EV and it be the 2nd lowest mark of his career

12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Mookie is having a late career power surge like it’s the steroid era all over again. 6 homers in 18 games puts him on pace to break his career high for the 3rd year in a row

13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – Launch is up to 15.2 degrees, whiff% is down to 23.9%, and he’s running more with 4 steals. The only thing he hasn’t improved that he needed to improve is a .596 OPS vs. lefties. But improving in 3 of the 4 areas he needed to show improvement in is good enough for me to move him into near elite dynasty asset territory

14) (16) Michael Harris – ATL, OF, 23.1 – He’s not going full explosion yet, but he’s hitting the ball harder than ever with a 91.8 MPH EV, 114.4 MPH Max EV and 53.5% Hard Hit%. All are career highs. 4.2 degree launch needs to rise to truly explode, but even as is, he’s near elite.

15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams is going full power explosion with a 91.7 MPH EV and 3 homers in 12 games. It’s too early to say the power explosion is 100% legit, but even a small leveling up would go a long way. There are not many guys I would trade Abrams for at this point, and if he comes back down to earth, we are still talking about a really good player

16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 22.11 – Tony Low Launch matured like 10 years in a single off-season. He’s hitting the ball harder with a 91.1 MPH EV and the plate approach is insanely improved with a 13.6%/15.2% K%/BB%. He’s also still running a ton with 5 steals. He ranks 13th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I named him a target this off-season, and I’m definitely buying in. This was an elite prospect who is leveling up in year 2

17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper had a back issue pop up in spring and he’s struggled in both spring and to start the year. He’s also been unlucky though (.287 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA) and he’s still crushing the ball with with a 91.1 MPH EV. You gotta stay patient with vets like Harper

18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.6 – .692 OPS and the underlying numbers are even worse than that with a .258 xwOBA, but like Harper, you can’t panic with vets like this at this point in the season

19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.9 – 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. Turner has yet to lose even a half step of speed. The decline ain’t coming this year

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 15, 2024April 15, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Welcome to April Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! (Patreon)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep with the first post dropping later today on Patreon. Top 20-ish will be free on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. (Update: The first post just dropped, click here for the Top 19 free on IBW). A spreadsheet will be available when the rankings are completed. See ya soon …

-Halp

***(Update: The first post just dropped, click here for the Top 19 free on IBW)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Posted on April 8, 2024April 8, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/8/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – 1 for 5 with 3 K’s yesterday and is now 1 for 13 with 7 K’s at Double-A on the season. This coming off a spring where he hit .156 with a 31.6% K% in 38 PA. Which came off a pro debut in 2023 where he put up 73 wRC+ in 85 PA at Double-A. I hate horror movies, and this is getting scarier than any horror movie I have ever seen (I still get nightmares from Event Horizon). Granted, the competition has been tough. Here he is getting completely dominated by a 99 MPH Jackson Jobe fastball yesterday. And he faced Ty Madden in his 2nd game who is an MLB ready mid-rotation starter. Not sure what his excuse is for Lael Lockhart in game 1, although again to be fair, Lockhart dominated everyone in that game with 0 ER and 9 K’s in 4.1 IP. Lockhart was also dominant in the upper minors last year … wait, who the hell is this Lockhart guy? (he actually looks interesting for my 30 teamers out there) … but let’s not get off track. Crews has every one of his dynasty owners in a full Patrick Ewing sweat right now, and I’m not sure I can be the guy to talk you down from the ledge. Regardless, there is nothing you can do but hold, because there is no sense in selling low. I would still be pretty shocked if he can’t even get it going against minor league pitching.

Zack Gelof OAK, 2B, 24.5 – And this is why losing our minds after a week and a half of games can get silly. Gelof came into Sunday with a .508 OPS in 9 games and he left it with a .781 OPS in 10 games. One game turned his season from “should I drop him” trash into having a pretty damn good start. Granted, it was a great day, going 4 for 5 with a 108.3 MPH homer to show off the power, and a 81.6 MPH triple to show off the legs. He came into the game with 2 steals. If you think this is good, just wait until Oakland moves to that PCL bandbox in Sacramento for the next 3 years. Aaron Judge won’t be the only player hitting bombs there.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Schultz is healthy and once again putting jaws on the floor with a level of dominance that is not normal. He went 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER and a 10/0 K/BB at High-A on Saturday. There was no broadcast of the game, but he was reportedly sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider was filthy. This coming off his insane 2023 with a 1.33 ERA and 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB%. He was my top pitching target from his FYPD class, so hopefully you already own him, because he’s going to be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball one day, and that day is probably like 3-4 months away. The only thing that could stop him is something I don’t even want to bring up. We’ve been hit with enough bad news in the last few days (Bieber, Strider, Eury etc …)

Dylan Lesko SDP, RHP, 20.7 – Lesko might have something to say about that claim that Schultz will take over as the top pitching prospect in the game, throwing a “no hitter” yesterday, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/3 K/BB at High-A. The control was scattershot, which isn’t great because all we’ve seen of Lesko in pro ball has been scattershot control (15.2% BB% in 33 IP in 2023), but the plus to double plus stuff was on full display. The fastball was in the mid 90’s, he befuddled lefties with the double plus change and dominated righties with the slider. I don’t think there was a single ball hit hard all day. He needs to show improved control before he can really fly up rankings, and I’m betting on him figuring that out at some point.

Ryan Pepiot TBR, RHP, 26.0 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB vs. COL at Coors. That improved control from last year showed back up, which is what made me call him a major target in my September 2023 Early Off-Season Target article. The fastball sat 94.1 MPH and put up a 50% whiff%. The slider and changeup were effective too, inducing weak contract and getting whiffs. It all led to a 86.5 MPH EV with a 41% whiff%. He’s in good hands with Tampa, and maybe add a star because he doesn’t throw 100 MPH? I’m ready to welcome in our new age of soft tossers who stay healthy 😉 … 94 MPH seems like a perfect compromise.

Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Crochet cements his status as a young ace with every outing. He impressed for the 3rd time in a row yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. KCR. The fastball sat 96.6 MPH and the slider notched a 64% whiff%. Most importantly, the control was once again pristine (1 walk in 18 IP on the season) and the third pitch, the cutter, performed well again with a 44% whiff%, 57% CSW%, and 78.7 MPH EV against. He’ll be entering at least my Top 150 overall when I update the Dynasty Rankings this month on the Patreon.

MJ Melendez KCR, OF, 25.4 – Melendez might be turning into a superstar right before our eyes. Statcast was yelling at us to buy low after he hit only 16 homers last year, because when someone puts up an insane 93.1 MPH EV with a 16.9 degree launch, it should not be taken lightly. And now he’s making up for lost homers after walloping his 3rd homer in just 9 games. And even better, his K% is all the way down to 20.6% (28.2% in 2023). There is no guarantee he can maintain the contact gains, but it’s certainly a good sign, and it is a near guarantee he can maintain the power. Melendez has a chance to be one of the best power hitters in the game for a long time.

Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – A .143 BABIP is the only thing in the way of everyone gushing over Greene, because everything else is screaming he is about to explode this year. He went 2 for 3 with a 102..9 MPH homer off lefty Kyle Muller. He’s still only hitting .188, but the 13.6 degree launch and 21.1%/15.8% K%/BB% says this is the real breakout we have been waiting for.

Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – The next wave of hyped up prospects are coming to take their rightful spot at the top of prospect rankings, and that starts with none other than Colt Emerson. He stayed calm and loose in the box before unfurling a swing that reminded me of a big cat striking it’s prey in the jungle. Just a vicious swing that murdered the baseball for his 2nd homer in 3 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. If you want to nitpick, it comes with a 62.5% GB% and 28.6%/7.1% K%/BB%, but it’s only 3 games, so it’s merely something to watch.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.6 – The 18 year old Nimmala faced off against the MLB proven, 26 year old Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Nimmala’s pretty and explosive righty swing came away the victor. He hit a pretty nice looking breaking ball 376 feet at 100 MPH for his first professional homer in 3 games at Single-A. Like Emerson, we still have to watch that GB% (66.7%) and strikeout rate (46.2%), but these are two of the most explosive, and youngest players at Single-A.

Zyhir Hope LAD, OF, 19.2 – Hope didn’t have the 1st round hype of Emerson and Nimmala, drafted 326th overall, but he sure has the talent to be put in the same group as them, and he actually one upped them yesterday. He cranked 2 homers yesterdays to the same spot, and the 2nd one was crushed harder than the first. I already gave him the full hype treatment on the Patreon after he hit his first homer of the year on Friday, so this makes it 3 in 3 games. Even better, the 20%/20% K%/BB% and 33.3% GB% looks great after struggling with both at rookie ball last year. Along with the very legit power, he has double plus speed (1 steal) and legit athleticism. He might be the biggest pure riser in the very early going. When the Dodgers come knocking on the door for your prospects, just say no (he was traded with Jackson Ferris for Michael Busch this off-season, so Chicago came out just fine too-Busch looks legit).

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 19.5 – Montes already made his ascension and proved himself at Single-A in 2023, but he’s back for more in 2024 with his first bomb of the season, golfing one out like Tiger Woods. These days, you might as well have one foot in the grave if you’re 19 years olds at Single-A. That is so 2021. But he’s showing off his experience with a 6.7%/13.3% K%/BB% in 3 games. He improved the hit tool in 2023, and if he’s taking another step in 2024, he might be entering Yordan Alvarez ceiling territory, rather than “just” a low BA/high OBP slugger.

Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Seattle has an embarrassment of riches at Single-A, and Farmelo joined the party yesterday too with his 2nd homer in 3 games. The guy has yet to a hit a single groundball, but has been swinging and missing plenty with a 40% K%. He’s just pure upside with double plus speed to go along with the power, and like most of these young kids, the hit tool will dictate how good they can become.

Aidan Smith SEA, OF, 19.8 – Emerson, Montes, Farmelo … and now Aidan Smith is joining the fun in Seattle as well, going deep twice. This game seemed more like batting practice than a real game, or maybe this Seattle team is the Single-A version of Baltimore’s Triple-A team. Seattle has an army ready to supplement Julio and that rotation in a couple years. Watch your back, Texas.

Shota Imanaga CHC, LHP, 30.7 – No cake matchup excuse this time, Imanaga went out there and dominated the Dodgers, going 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB. The 92.3 MPH fastball notched a 33% whiff% and the splitter was solid with a 43% CSW%. There is zero doubt at this point that Imanaga’s low 90’s stuff will easily transfer to MLB. It sure looks like he might be a legit ace, or near ace, and that isn’t exaggerating. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 34.3%/0% K%/BB% in 10 IP. I didn’t give him enough respect this off-season.

Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 25.1 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 3/1 vs/ STL. The ballyhooed slider is living up to the billing, dominating with a 49% usage, 45% whiff%, and 81 MPH EV against. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH, and the changeup was solid too with a 84.8 MPH EV against. It’s getting pretty safe to say that Meyer is 100% healthy coming off Tommy John, and he’s establishing that he’s the real deal on the MLB level. He might be approaching Top 200 dynasty asset status.

Ronel Blanco HOU, RHP, 30.7 – Blanco followed up his no hitter with a 1 hitter over 6, going 6 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/4 K/BB vs. TEX. He didn’t get many whiffs with a 14% whiff%, but he induced weak contact with a 83.3 MPH EV, so it’s certainly not pure luck. I’m still not fully buying in, because I’m a K/BB guy at the end of the day, but it’s obvious he’s not a complete mirage either. Solid mid-rotation starter is as high as I can go on him right now.

Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – There was a reason Merrill made the team as a 20 year old out of camp, and that is because he is clearly ready after going 4 for 4 with a stolen base yesterday. And those hits came off Logan Webb (103.1 MPH, 93 MPH, and 72.3 singles) and Camilo Doval (104.8 MPH single). He’s now slashing .324/.395/.471 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 18.4%/10.5% K%/BB% in 12 games. The 92.6 MPH EV and 10.1 degree launch looks great as well. He’s not even 21 yet. He’s going to be a superstar.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – I can’t guarantee that Jazz is going to stay healthy, but I can guarantee that he is healthy right now with how he looks to start 2024. He cracked a 105.4 MPH, 412 foot bomb off Kyle Gipson for his 2nd of the year. He now has a 91.7 MPH EV with a 21.7% Barrel%. The plate approach has also been much improved with a 26.2%/19% K%/BB%. I kept the faith on him, ranking him 34th overall, and let me feel pretty good about that before the other shoe drops (hopefully it doesn’t).

Landen Maroudis TOR, RHP, 19.4 – Talented 2024 FYPD pitching prospect, Landen Maroudis, saw what Barrett Kent did on Friday, and one upped him (just like his signing bonus one upped him-Maroudis signed for $1.5 million and Kent for $1 million), going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. a Single-A Tigers lineup that featured Max Clark and Josue Briceno. The fastball sat 94.5 MPH and the slider and curve notched a 40% and 100% whiff%, respectively. He also mixed in a sinker and changeup. He’s a projectable 6’3” with an athletic and explosive righty delivery. The fastball was crisp and he had the breaking balls on a string. It sure looks like he’s about to blow up.

Lonnie White PIT, OF, 21.3 – White demolished an absolute NUKE that I’m pretty sure hit off the scoreboard for his 2nd homer in just 3 games at High-A. That is the type of raw talent I was talking about when I ranked him 46th overall on my Predicting the 2025 Top 50 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “White will start the year at the age appropriate High-A and do exactly what he did at Single-A in 2023 to High-A in 2024. The elite level athleticism combined with age to level production will have everyone buying in.” He now has a .953 OPS, but there is one small snafu … okay, one big snafu … it comes with a 7/1 K/BB. The hit tool is the thing that can tank him, and right now, the K’s are just as concerning as the homers are impressive. He’s going to need to make better contact to make due on my Top 50 prediction for him.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Beck is simply unconscious at Triple-A, popping his 3rd homer in 8 games, and he didn’t strike out in this one either. He could be one of the top impact hitting prospects to get called up in 2024, and he’ll have Coors Field at his back. I gave you the heads up to stash him last Monday, and he’s only continued his dominance.

Samuel Zavala CHW, OF, 19.9 – Zavala had a rough cup of coffee at High-A last year, so it’s nice to see him getting off to a hot start this year after hitting his 1st homer in 3 games. He has a 209 wRC+, but we need to see the 31.3%/6.3% K%/BB% improve before we can get really excited.

Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez has been sitting the breakout waiting room for a long time, and this year it’s now or never. He’s choosing now as he sliced an opposite field dinger for his first of the year at Double-A. He’s now hitting .455 with 4 steals and a 30.8%/15.4% K%/BB% in 3 games. I know we all have prospect fatigue with him, but he’s still just 21 years old at Double-A. This could finally be the explosion.

Max Muncy OAK, SS, 21.8 – Muncy is another 21 year old who the prospect community has tired on, but he’s ripping up Triple-A right now, and he’ll play at a Triple-A ballpark until 2027, making him even more enticing. He hit his first homer and finished the day 3 with 4 with 2 doubles and 0 K’s. He now has a 163 wRC+ with 2 steals and a 14.3% K%. He’s always had the talent, drafted 25th overall in 2021, and he just might be coming into his own.

Wilfred Veras CHW, OF, 21.5 – Veras is another super talented 21 year old in the upper minors who is making waves after pimping the shit out of his 2nd homer at Double-A. He now has a 387 wRC+ with an 18.2% K%. Chicago is desperate for some real talent, and Veras certainly has real talent as Fernando Tatis’ cousin. He might also be entering sneaky 2nd half stash appeal.

Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Remember Cardinals Devil Magic? Where the Cardinals were able to turn every off the radar hitter into gold. Well, there is a dark side to dancing with the Devil, and that bill has been coming due over the last few years. Now every former Cardinals outfielder turns to gold once they leave St. Louis, and O’Neill is next in line after ripping his 5th homer yesterday. He now has a 1.407 OPS, 92.1 MPH EV, 22.7% Barrel%, and 16.2%/18.9% K%/BB% in 9 games. Don’t question the dark arts. This was inevitable.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 1, 2024April 1, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/1/24)

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Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – It’s 4 days into the season, there hasn’t even been a single game played in April yet, and if you’re anything like me, you’re ready to throw all of your off-season planning right out the window based on who did and didn’t hit a homer yet. I’m in 4th to last place in my 18 team league, franchise savior Evan Carter is 0 for 8, and now I’m questioning everything. In my 12 teamer and 30 teamer, I’m towards the top of the standings, and am already patting myself on the back for how much of a genius I am. So instead of pretending like I am some emotionless fantasy monk, telling you the reasonable thing, which is that it’s a long season, and that what happens in the first week is not a good indicator for what will happen the entire season, let’s lean into it and overreact. And also, lets see if any of this stuff will have staying power, or at least if we think it will.

Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 26.7 – Carpenter was as underrated as a core, proven, young dynasty asset could get this off-season, and he’s off to hot start in 2024 after smoking an Erick Fedde hanger 393 feet for his first homer of the year. He tacked on another 102 MPH single on a 2 for 4 day. He’s now 4 for 9 with a double, homer and 0 K’s. He ranked 142nd overall in my Top 1,145 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, and I named him a Target in my positional target articles, writing, “Carpenter has a pretty rare, very hard to find profile that can usually only be found at the top of drafts, but he gets valued like a boring afterthought. He had a 10.2% Barrel%, 90.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, 13.1 degree launch, 28.1 ft/sec sprint, and 27% whiff%. I promise you, those are not easy numbers to find. And the surface stats fully back it up. Carpenter has a chance to be really really good. Like Top 75 dynasty asset good, and nobody seems to really care.” … people are going to start to care if he keeps this up. He currently has a 92.2 MPH EV with a 25.6 degree launch and a 12.5% whiff%. My verdict, he’s for real.

Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.1 – The Maikel Garcia coming out party is here, and if you’ve read my work since June of 2023, you are partying right along with him. He jacked out his 2nd homer in just 3 games, after hitting just 4 homers in 123 games last year. That is 50% of the homers in 2.4% of the games, if math is your thing. Or if math isn’t your thing, that is a 108 homer pace if stupid fun prorating is your thing (I lean towards the stupid fun prorating side myself). I already victory lapped him in the Opening Day Rundown over on the Patreon after he hit his first homer, but as long as he keeps hitting homers, I’ll keep going around the track. He’s always hit the ball hard, got the bat on the ball, and had speed. Now he’s lifting it with a 21.4 degree launch. His upside is not to be trifled with. Verdict: for real.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Jordan Beck isn’t just knocking on the door of the bigs, he’s pounding on it like my freshman year RA after smelling weed coming from my room. He had another huge day at Triple-A, going 3 for 5 with a 104.4 MPH, 396 foot triple, a 103.9 MPH single, and a 102.9 MPH, 439 foot homer. That’s his 2nd homer in 3 games to give him a 1.550 OPS on the season. Colorado had Elehuris Montero, Michael Toglia, and Jake Cave in their staring lineup yesterday, falling to 1-3 on the season. Beck is a prime stash for all league sizes. Beck and Joey Loperfido are probably the biggest Triple-A hitting “risers” to start the season.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 23.6 – Whisenhunt got back on the mound for the first time since an elbow injury ended his season in late July, and he looked electric, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94 MPH and put up a 42% whiff% on the pitch, while the elite changeup was silly dominant with a 100% whiff%. He just reminded everyone of why we were so excited for him before going down with the injury. If Back and Loperfido are the top hitting risers, Whisenhunt might be the top pitching riser. He’s worth a stash in all league sizes. He just has to stay healthy, which is easier said than done.

Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – I was smelling that monster, doesn’t even look like a real statline, career year for Soto. The Baseball Gods owed him that one for the shortened 2020 season where had a 202 wRC+, and it sure looks like it’s happening. He went 3 for 5 yesterday and is now 9 for 17 with 1 double, 1 homer and a 2/3 K/BB. The Yanks are going to have to pay this man one billion dollars to keep him. Or at least that is what Boras will ask for before dragging the negotiations into deep March, and then settling for a 1 year, $100 million deal.

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – It’s clear that Chicago wants Morel’s big bat in the middle of their lineup, whether it’s at 3B or DH, and Morel is doing everything he can to stay in that cleanup spot, jacking out his 1st homer at 107.4 MPH. He now has a 1.071 OPS in 3 games, and most importantly, he’s only struck out once in 14 PA. He had a 32.1% K% in 53 spring PA, so this one is probably more of a small sample thing than something sustainable, but if that swing and miss can just take a small step forward, it would make a big impact with how hard he hits the ball. Can’t say it’s for real quite yet, but it’s a good start.

Trey Lipscomb WAS, 3B, 23.9 – Nick Senzel went down with a fractured thumb fielding grounders, and Lipscomb swooped right in to take his job. He cracked his first MLB homer yesterday and is off to a hot start, going 3 for 8 with a homer and a steal. The underlying numbers aren’t super encouraging with a 85.9 MPH EV, 44.4% whiff% and negative 8 degree launch, so I wouldn’t go too crazy for him at all, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for his potential solid across the board production. As for Senzel, this is why I hid all injuries when I played baseball through high school. Looking back, my UCL was barking basically since 7th grade, and I didn’t tell a soul. You ain’t taking my job. Senzel’s out, Lipscomb is in, but my verdict is that it’s probably not for real.

CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams on the other hand is 100% for real, and he might be ready to level up in 2024. He demolished a Nick Martinez curve 429 feet at 107.1 MPH for his first homer of the year. Naturally getting stronger is just about all he needs to do to explode, and so far he has a 90.7 MPH EV with a 14.3% Barrel% in 7 batted balls. He already lifts it, gets the bat on the ball, and has speed. Before EV took over the world, there was an adage for young players that power was the last thing to come. Now if you don’t have a 93 MPH EV as a 12 year old in little league you are looked over. The man muscles might be coming in for Abrams. He now has a 1.085 OPS with a homer and 3 steals. He’s for real.

Will Benson CIN, OF, 25.9 – EV has never been an issue for the 6’5”, 230 pound Benson, and he’s picking up from where he left off in the 2nd half of 2023, blasting a 411 foot homer to go along with a 103.3 MPH double and 100.8 MPH single. It’s the swing and miss that we have to watch, and unfortunately, that is still there with a 44% whiff% in 13 PA. He’s had big K rates his entire career, so that likely isn’t going anywhere, but when you have a 101.6 MPH EV, we’ll accept that. I was all over Benson pre-2023, and while he has his flaws, I’m buying the huge power/speed combo.

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 27.10 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. SEA. The 19% whiff% wasn’t eye popping, but he induced weak contact with a 78.7 MPH EV against, and as usual, his control was on point. I’m a sucker for Whitlock every time he gets a shot in the rotation, and this year in no different. He’s not this good, but his plus control, above average whiff combo is enticing as long as he stays healthy. I’m in.

Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 25.7 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 6/2 K/BB vs. BOS. Not the best outing, but I’m just here to check on the new splitter … 60% whiff%. The fastball was great too with a 37% whiff%. He’s going to explode, and if you can sneak in a reasonable trade for him based on this mediocre outing, I would be all over it.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – 5 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. STL. The filthy changeup utterly dominated with a 41% usage, 68 MPH EV against, and 50% whiff%. That is just silly. The fastball was up (along with all of his pitches) 1.4 MPH to 95.4 MPH, and the cutter and curve performed well too. This was a very encouraging start, and it sure looks like Stone is ready to bounce back from his disaster 2023 season. Pitching development isn’t linear, and it just gets proven over and over again.

Brice Turang MIL, 2B/SS, 24.4 – Turang went 2 for 4 yesterday, and stole his league leading 4th bag. He went 26 for 30 with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint in 448 PA in 2023, and if he keeps running at this pace, he has all of the skills to be among the league leaders by the end of the season too. He’s off to a good start in general, going 6 for 11 with a 90.2 MPH EV. He’ll sit vs. most lefties, and Turang started last year hot too before cooling off, so I’m not going completely legit on this one. But there is category winning stolen base skills here.

Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 22.4 – I had Alvarez as the #2 overall dynasty catcher behind Adley, and I thought Adley had to watch his back as Alvarez was coming for the top spot. And Alvarez is taking his shot at the king early, having another good day at the dish, going 2 for 3 with a 109.9 MPH double. He’s now 5 for 10 with a double, homer and 100.2 MPH EV. Adley is off to a great start as well, but he doesn’t have the homer power than Alvarez has in the tank, and in fantasy, power is king. Honestly, it’s just great to see some elite level hitting from the catcher position. Brings me back to the days of Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza.

Kyle Isbel KCR, OF, 27.1 – I love patting myself on the back for my targets hitting, but Isbel looks like a miss for me. I was targeting Waters to win that starting CF job, but it was the presumed favorite, Isbel, who took it, and he’s running with it. He ripped a 105.5 MPH homer that cleared the fence in about half a second off Bailey Ober. He’s now 3 for 9 on the season with a homer, 98.4 MPH EV and 11.1% K%. His EV was pretty strong last year too at 89.4 MPH, and he doesn’t have a problem lifting the ball. The defense is plus, the speed is above average, and he gets the bat on the ball. He does a lot of things well, and I just whiffed on him. He has the skills to make a fantasy impact, and if he’s still out there in your league, it’s time to grab him.

Bailey Ober MIN, RHP, 28.2 – Speaking of Ober, he had a straight disaster season debut, going 1.1 IP with 9 hits, 8 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. KCR. Bottom line here is to not panic. Can’t dive too deep into this one. He’ll find his rhythm. Don’t drop him yet.

Luis Campusano SDP, C, 25.6 – Campusano was another non target for me, and while he’s off to a good start, I’m still not buying in quite yet. He went 3 for 5 with a 106 MPH single, 92.4 MPH single, and 96.4 MPH homer that he barely snuck over the fence going the opposite way. He’s now 9 for 23 on the season, but it comes with a lowly 81.1 MPH EV and I just don’t love the batting stance. I think he can be solid, but I’m still questioning the upside. Not a buy for me yet.

Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – Fedde’s first start back in the states after refining his game in Korea was pretty encouraging, going 4.2 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB vs. a solid Detroit lineup. Most importantly, the swing and miss was up with a 28% whiff% on the back of the new splitter, which notched a 50% whiff%. The sinker missed bats too with a 33% whiff%, and the cutter induced weak contact with a 66.4 MPH EV against. It wasn’t a perfect outing, and I don’t think we are talking about a top of the rotation explosion here, but he can certainly enter useful fantasy starter territory.

Jack Flaherty DET, RHP, 28.6 – Flaherty carried the spring success into the regular season, going 6 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB. Granted it was against Chicago’s weak lineup, but the stuff was still up across the board, and the slider was absolutely dominant with a 46% usage and 43% whiff%. He’s never thrown the slider that much, and that is another good sign that this isn’t the same Flaherty from the last few years. His bounce back looks real.

Brady Singer KC, RHP, 27.8 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 10/1 K/BB vs. MIN. We heard all off-season about Singer’s two new pitches, the 4-seamer and sweeper, so of course he didn’t throw the sweeper at all (and threw the sinker much more than the 4-seamer) and dominated with the old sinker/slider combo in this one. The slider in particular wreaked havoc with a 62% whiff%. I’m not sure what to think of him completing scraping his off-season plan, and then dominating by going back to basics. I guess the only reasonable response is that this isn’t for real, and not to buy in too hard other than taking a flier. But hard not to get excited after such a killer outing.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Schneider got his first start of the season, and he did what he does with a dinger, walk, and 2 K’s in 5 PA. He’s going to have to wait his turn behind Biggio, IKF, and maybe even Ernie Clement (who I like), but it sure seems like the low BA, high OBP slugging profile will play if he gets in the lineup. Be patient with him. He’ll get more playing time one way or the other, and I think he’s for real.

Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Like any self respecting cast off Cardinals OF, O’Neill got out of St. Louis and immediately got to raking. He smoked his 2nd homer in 13 PA off Bryce Miller, and now has a 1.538 OPS with 2 homers, 1 steal, a 92.1 MPH EV and 7.7%/23.1% K%/BB%. I cautioned against selling O’Neill too low in my Top 1,000 blurb for him, writing, “I would caution against selling O’Neill too low.” This is why. He looks healthy, and he has the talent to blow up all over again.

Esteury Ruiz OAK, OF, 25.2/Victor Scott STL, OF, 23.2 – The Ruiz vs. Scott debates remind me of those super heated debates in 5th grade over who the fastest kid in school was. Shoutout Aaron Misas (RIP). But in 5th grade, we didn’t have Statcast, and in fantasy, we aren’t only concerned with speed. Ruiz went 2 for 4 yesterday and jacked his first bag of the season. He’s 3 for 7 on the season. Scott went 2 for 3 with a double for his first 2 hits of the season and is now 2 for 14 with a steal. Ruiz is “crushing” the ball with a 86.6 MPH (82.7 MPH in 2023), while Scott is actually crushing the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV. It’s too early to say anything, and both have their own playing time issues, but it’s just a super fun one to follow.

Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – It’s so frustrating when we can’t watch one of the best young players in the game on the biggest stage, so we’ll have to settle for watching Caminero’s insanely explosive swing crush homers in Triple-A. It was his first of the year and he’s obviously already destroying the level with a 170 wRC+ in 3 games. I guess Tampa is waiting for that extra year of service time. He should be up already, but it is what it is. And he also hurt his quad in this game, so that makes it easy for Tampa to manipulate his service time now.

Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – Speaking of elite power hitting youngsters who should be up already, Mayo decimated his first homer of the year as well, pulling a 421 foot, 111.3 MPH bomb. He now has a 162 wRC+ in 3 games. Baltimore at least has an excuse, because they are jam packed on the MLB level. This next guy made the roster, but can’t even get any run …

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0/Austin Hays BAL, OF, 28.9 – Pinch hitter Colton Cowser went 0 for 1 yesterday, and 1 for 1 with a double on Saturday. I’ve never really seen a team turn a legit top prospect into a pinch hitter to start their career, but who am I to question Baltimore? The man standing in Cowser’s way, Austin Hays, went 0 for 3 and now has a .490 OPS in 13 PA. Baltimore is only going to play around for so long, and at some point, the cream will rise to the top. Hays is going to have to start hitting real soon, and hitting real well, to keep that full time job. Cowser is coming for it.

Trey Sweeney LAD, SS, 23.11 – Gavin Lux shouldn’t get too comfortable (4 for 20 with a .400 OPS), because LA has a ready made middle infielder who is putting the pressure on at Triple-A. Sweeney unloaded for his first dinger at 105.2 MPH. LA has vets on the bench that can also take over for Lux, so it’s not like it’s purely Sweeney vs. Lux, but Sweeney is an underrated close to the majors bat to keep an eye on.

Juan Brito CLE, 2B/3B, 22.6 – The smooth swinging, switch hitting Brito went deep as a righty for his first homer at Triple-A. I know that Cleveland has like 900 guys with a similar profile, but don’t sleep on Brito. He hasn’t put up a wRC+ less than 125 at any level, and the swing is just so easy and clean. He might need injuries to hit, but he has the potential to be a rock solid hitter on the MLB level.

Mason Black SFG, RHP, 24.4/Cristian Mena ARI, RHP, 21.3 – Black and Mena both had strong outings at Triple-A. Black went 5 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER and a 5/0 K/BB. Mena went 5 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. The problem is, neither really has the velocity to get overly excited about. Black sat 91.9 MPH while Mena sat 92.6 MPH. Velo isn’t everything, but I do think it limits their upside. Mena’s breaking balls dominated (slider, curve), and Black’s fastballs dominated (sinker, 4-seamer), so they can be successful without the huge velocity, there is just levels to this. Solid pitching prospects, but not great ones.

Rowdy Tellez PIT, 1B, 29.0 –– I promised you I wasn’t going to mention every Pirates win in the last Rundown, but I might have lied 😉 … or at least until they lose one. Tellez rocketed a 106.6 MPH 3 run homer to eventually propel Pitt to victory in the 10th. They are now tied for the best record in baseball at 4-0. I’ve gone full blown Pirates fan this year after touting them all off-season as a team that is going to surprise. In the 20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (#16), I warned you that “The Rise of the Pirates is definitely coming,” and it is here. Hope you got in on that over bet (and I put in a WS bet too).

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)