November 2024 – Imaginary Brick Wall

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1) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.9 – If you own Shohei Ohtani, there is a very, very high likelihood that your team is in win now mode, and if your team is in win now mode, I can’t imagine there is single solitary scenario where you would feel good about trading him straight up for any player in the game, age be damned. He just went .310/54/59 as a hitter only, finishing as the #1 fantasy player in the game by a country mile (shouldn’t the expression be a city mile? Try driving a mile in New York City, it will take you about 30 minutes. In the country? 50 seconds). And now in 2025 he is expected to be fully healthy to get back on the mound after undergoing an internal brace procedure, or whatever super secret elbow surgery he underwent. His arm was healthy enough to even hear murmurs he could have pitched this post-season. And when healthy, he is a true ace with a 3.01 ERA and 31.2/8.9 K%/BB% in 481.2 career IP. It’s his 2nd major elbow surgery in 5 years, but I’m not betting against a super human talent like Ohtani, and he always has elite hitting to fall back on even if he can’t return to full health. Considering what he did this year while recovering from surgery, it’s pretty clear you barely need elbows to hit. Sure he’s 30 years old, but that is far from ancient. One complicating factor did pop up during the World Series with him hurting his left shoulder, ultimately requiring surgery in early November. It’s not his pitching shoulder, but you do need shoulders to hit, and there are already rumors he isn’t going to run as much in 2025. He was so far out ahead of the pack in a daily moves league that I don’t think this changes his #1 status, but it definitely makes it less of a no brainer. His injuries are starting to pile up – 2025 Projection: 110/43/107/.288/.376/.579/25 // 9/3.37/1.16/158 in 130 IP

2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.10 – In leagues where Ohtani can’t be used as both a pitcher and hitter (weekly leagues or leagues where Ohtani is split into two players), age does start to become more of a factor, so in those leagues, Bobby Witt Jr. would be crowned the #1 dynasty player in the game. Coming off his rookie season in 2022, he improved in almost every facet of the game in 2023, and then he once again improved in every facet of the game in 2024. Someone tell Bobby that development isn’t linear, because his development is a straight line. He put up career bests in Barrel% (14.3%), EV (92.7 MPH), Max EV (116.9 MPH), xwOBA (.413), K% (15%), and BB% (8.0%). His 74.7 MPH bat speed is elite, which makes his contact rates even more impressive, because that bat speed/contact combo is in even more rarified air. He’s also the fastest man in baseball by a good margin with a 30.5 ft/sec sprint. It all resulted in a .332/32/31 season, and seeing how he’s only gotten better every single season, there might just be another level in here. 40/40 here we come. – 2025 Projection: 118/35/104/.315/.379/.555/39

3) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS, 23.3 – Risk? What risk? I laugh in the face risk, ranking Elly 9th overall last off-season, and finishing his blurb by writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” That not so risky risk paid off in a huge way in 2024 with Elly going .259/25/67. Those 67 steals led the league by a large margin, lapping most of the field. He’s one of, if not the most electric player in the game at 6’5” with an elite 75.2 MPH swing (his lefty swing is super elite, while his righty swing is more near elite) and 30.0/sec sprint speed. He crushes the ball with a 91.8 MPH EV, he brought his launch up as expected to a respectable 9.7 degrees, he brought his chase down to an above average 26.9%, and he kept his strikeout rate in a reasonable enough range (31.3%) to let the insane talent shine. And this is just the beginning. If he can continue to improve his plate skills and raise that launch, which I wouldn’t see why that isn’t the expectation at just 23 years old, I shutter to think about what kind of numbers are possible. – 2025 Projection: 110/31/89/.267/.348/.515/59

4) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS, 23.9 – Henderson massively improved on basically the only three weaknesses of his game in 2024, which easily propelled him into a Top 5 dynasty asset. He put up a .829 OPS vs. lefties in 2024 after a notching a lowly .618 OPS in 2023. I never let Gunnar’s struggles vs. lefties hold his ranking back, even when it was a major point of contention in is his prospect years, and I think it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating lefty hitting prospects. You often don’t get that many reps against lefties, so you often see that skill develop over time when they get into the majors. Don’t let it scare you off. He also improved his base stealing, nabbing 21 bags in 25 attempts after stealing only 10 bags in 2023. Granted this one was more a fantasy skill than a real life skill, as he was an excellent base runner overall in both years. And finally, he improved his hit tool, putting up a 22.1% K%, 24.4% whiff%, and a .281 BA. He combined all of those improvements while continuing to smash the ball with a 92.8 MPH EV, leading to 37 homers. He still doesn’t steal quite enough to pop him over Witt or Elly, but he is right there with those guys, and if steals are devalued in your league, like in points or 6+ hitting category leagues, Gunnar would slid in ahead of Elly. – 2025 Projection: 116/35/99/.280/.370/.535/18

Shadow4) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly lineup leagues or as a hitter only. Without the pitching to put him over the top, the age does come into play here a bit. – 2025 Projection: 120/48/114/.293/.381/.610/40 // 10/3.28/1.13/170 in 140 IP

5) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 26.5 – A Cohen vs. Steinbrenner New York Showdown is brewing this off-season for the services of Juan Soto, and you can just see Boras licking his chops. He is going to bathe in the spotlight with god knows what crazy demands getting leaked left and right. A 30 year, $1 billon dollar contract with $900 million deferred? Somebody has to be the first billion dollar player, and we don’t seem far off from it. A 1 year, $100 million contact? Why not? It’s about to get wild up in here after Soto put up the best non shortened season in his career, which I perfectly predicted in last year’s Top 1,000, writing, “This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more).” Well, the Baseball Gods pay their debts, and Soto exploded with a career high 41 homers and 180 wRC+ that was third in all of baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He has the supernatural plate skills to change his hitting approach depending on ballpark, which I was betting on, and he delivered on that with a career high by far 45.1% Pull% (38.9% in 2023). He actually hit 1 more homer on the road than he did at home, so even if he leaves Yankee Stadium, I’m expecting him to keep the new approach. His 19.7% Barrel%, 94.2 MPH EV, and 57% Hard Hit% were all career highs. The only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases with only 7 steals, and that is what keeps him just a smidge behind Witt, Elly and Gunnar. – 2025 Projection: 123/37/110/.292/.420/.545/9

6) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 24.7 – Back when Carroll was in the throes of his awful start, I made a decree by Fantasy Law to not sell low in one of my Dynasty Baseball Rundowns, writing, “‘The captain goes down with the ship.’ That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll.” He continued to struggle for a bit after writing that, but before long, he did indeed turn that ship around, slashing .258/.351/.577 with 20 homers, 20 steals, and a 10.6/11.3 K%/BB% in his final 71 games. He smashed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV and 14.6 degree launch over that time. I would say any lingering concern over his shoulder injury can be put to rest, cementing Carroll as a truly elite dynasty asset with standout contact, approach, power, and speed. He’s the total package. Don’t be scared off by the poor first half. – 2025 Projection: 119/28/84/.270/.357/.519/42

7) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 28.2 – A fractured shin knocked Tucker out for half the season, but he put up a 1.041 OPS in 18 games after returning, so there is zero concern about the injury long term. I guess the one area of his game where maybe you can get a little nervous about is stolen bases. He only stole one bag in those 18 games, and he put up a career low 26.0 ft/sec sprint, which is in the bottom 18% of the league. He’s never been fast but he’s always been an excellent base stealer, so I’m not sure I’m extra worried about it, but he does kinda feel like the type of player who may not steal as much as he gets into his 30’s. He’s not there yet at only 28, but it might be something to keep in mind. Steals aside, he does feel like the type of player who will rake deep into his 30’s. He only played in 78 games, but it was the best year of his career with a 180 wRC+ that came on the back of a career high by far 16.5% BB% (11.9% in 2023). He also hit 23 homers with 11 steals, and if you double that over a full season pace, that is 46 homers with 22 steals if my math is correct … carry the 1. He’s been one of the most consistently great players of his generation. Almost too consistent as he semes to get taken for granted. – 2025 Projection: 102/34/109/.285/.378/.533/24

8) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 27.3 – Acuna tore his right ACL in 2021 and now he’s torn his left ACL in 2024. Since that first torn ACL, he’s been in the process of slowing down with a 29.4 ft/sec sprint in 2021, a 28.5 ft/sec sprint in 2022, a 28.0 ft/sec sprint in 2023 and finally a 27.7 ft/sec sprint in 2024. And now coming off this 2nd ACL tear, I don’t think there is any question at all that Acuna is not going to be the athlete he was in his prime. Even with the lowest sprint speed of his career, he still stole 16 bases in 49 games, which is about a 48 steal pace, so I don’t think he is all of a sudden going to stop running, but let’s see how he looks coming off this 2nd major knee injury. He was also in the midst of the worst season of his career before going down with the injury. He hit only 4 homers with a .716 OPS. He was definitely getting unlucky as he was crushing the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV, but even his .348 xwOBA was a career low by far. He wasn’t able to maintain any of the contact gains from 2023 with his K% jumping back up to 23.9% (11.4% in 2023). After the first ACL tear, Acuna’s first year back wasn’t particularly great with 15 homers and a 115 wRC+ in 119 games in 2022, so keep that in mind for 2025. He had a historic season in 2023 of course, so the hope is that he can do the same eventually after this one, but this one will be his 2nd, and it’s hard for me to completely ignore it. He’s expected to be ready for Opening Day, and Acuna is the type of talent you want to keep betting on no matter what the circumstances are, but I’m definitely a little concerned. – 2025 Projection: 108/33/90/.277/.368/.536/31

9) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.11 – In pure win now mode, I can see ranking Judge 2nd overall, but with him turning 33 years old just one month into the 2025 season, age starts to move a little more to the forefront of my mind. 33 years old is generally the number for me when I maybe start to explore sell opportunities if I want to rebuild or retool, so while I’m not saying to sell Judge, it’s the reason why he isn’t ranked even higher coming off his massive season. His 218 wRC+ was the best in baseball by a massive margin. The only players to put up a higher wRC+ in a season are Barry Bonds (3x), Babe Ruth (3x), Ted Williams (2x), and Roger Hornsby (1x). I mean, do I need to say more? No. No I don’t. – 2025 Projection: 112/50/128/.293/.422/.661/10

10) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 26.3 – Tatis proved without a shadow of a doubt that he is not going to fade into mediocrity after his relatively down 2023 season coming off the PED suspension and multiple surgeries (not that I had much doubt, ranking him 6th overall last off-season). He demolished the ball with a 93.5 MPH EV, 14.5% Barrel%, .393 xwOBA, and a 55.1% Hard Hit% which was in the top 1% of baseball. Not only were his power metrics in prime form, but his 21.9% K% was a career best. He missed over two months with a stress reaction in his leg, which I guess you can add to his “injury risk” pile, but he was fine when he returned in September, and he went nuclear in the playoffs too with 4 homers in 7 games. It all resulted in 25 homers with a .280 BA in 109 games (including the playoffs). That is about a 35 homer pace over a full season. The one area where the injuries did seem to take their toll was on the bases. He only stole 11 bases on 14 attempts and his sprint speed tanked to 28.4 ft/sec (29.3 in 2023). Maybe you can blame the leg injury, but he wasn’t running much before that injury, and I’m not sure how you can blame the wrist/shoulder injuries for him getting slower, especially since he was fine in 2023. How much he’s going to run in the future is the wild card in this profile, and that question, along with some continued injury risk, is enough to nudge him just outside of the of that Top 5-ish area into the Top 10 area. – 2025 Projection: 96/33/89/.283/.348/.529/18

11) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 24.3 – The Slow Start King is going to give his dynasty owners a massive coronary event if he gets off to yet another slow start in 2025. He seriously needs to figure something out this off-season. Treat Spring Training like it’s the regular season? Ramp up earlier? I don’t know the answer because I don’t know what his off-season routine is, but he needs to do something differently. He put up a .616 OPS in his first 87 games before exploding after that, slashing .318/.371/.543 with 13 homers, 7 steals, and a 23.3/6.5 K%/BB% in his final 56 games. He’s far too talented to be too scared off by the slow starts. His 76.3 MPH swing is the 9th fastest in baseball. He crushes the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV and he has elite speed with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint. The one area of his game which is preventing him from joining the true elites, especially as a real life hitter, are his plate skills. It’s yet to improve at all in his 3 years in the majors with a 30.9% whiff% and 37.4% Chase% (25.4/6.2 K%/BB%). He can thrive in fantasy especially even without that improving at all, but if that can take a step forward, we may not have seen the best of Julio yet. – 2025 Projection: 100/31/100/.281/.342/.490/32

12) James Wood – WAS, OF, 22.7 – I don’t need to do any deep victory lap philosophizing when it comes to if James Wood is a hit for me (see the Washington Nationals Dynasty Team Report for more thoughts on victory lapping in dynasty), because I can say without a shadow of a doubt that I can victory lap the hell out of James Wood. I named him a major First Year Player Draft Target in his draft year, and then I ranked him all the way up at 68th overall in the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I couldn’t help but buy into that beastly power/speed combo from a 6’7” frame, and the swing was always short enough to bet on the hit tool ending up good enough. And that is exactly how it played out in his rookie year with an elite 92.8/96.9 MPH AVG/FB EV, a plus 28.7 ft/sec sprint, a well above average 21% Chase%, and a not in the true danger zone 29.6% whiff%. It resulted in 9 homers, 14 steals, a .264 BA and a 120 wRC+ in 79 games. The 2.4 degree launch subdued the homer power a bit, but he hits the ball so hard that he’s launch proof, and that number is certainly coming up in the future. He’s basically Elly De La Cruz with better plate skills and half as many steals. Do not even think about valuing Wood as anything but a near elite dynasty asset this off-season. – 2025 Projection: 89/24/87/.251/.346/.474/26 Prime Projection: 105/32/105/.268/.364/.518/28

13) Jackson Chourio – MIL, OF, 21.1 – I spent most of my waking hours last off-season agonizing over who to place as the #1 prospect in baseball between Chourio, Holliday and Langford. And honestly, it wasn’t only waking hours, I was dreaming of a Chourio 20/20 rookie season in my sleep. I trusted the voices I was getting from the baseball gods, placing Chourio first overall on my prospect rankings, and projecting his 2024 stat line for 21 homers, 22 steals, 75 RBI, a .320 OBP and a .469 SLG in my 2024 Top 1,000 Rankings. And as we know, he ended up outdoing Langford by a solid amount and Holliday by a city mile, hitting 21 homers with 25 steals, 79 RBI, a .327 OBP and a .464 SLG. Damn, it’s almost like I really did see his future stat line in my dreams (and yes, I’m not mentioning batting average or runs because I didn’t nail those ha). He hit the ball very hard with a 89.7 MPH EV, he had elite speed with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint, and he had a slightly above average 21.1% K%. And all of those numbers include his rough first 2 months of the season. If you just look at his last 4 months, which is reasonable considering he was a 20 year old rookie just finding his MLB sea legs, his numbers get even more impressive, slashing .305/.360/.527 with 16 homers, 15 steals, and a 18.4/7.3 K%/BB% in his final 97 games. There is some room for improvement with his plate approach (below average 31.9% Chase%) and launch (7.6 degrees), but neither of those are too bad to begin with, and he has the profile to make that work even if he can’t improve it. But he’ll barely be 21 years old next season, so I don’t see why we wouldn’t expect all areas of his game to improve. Wood vs. Chourio is a coin flip for me, but I gave the edge to Wood because he hits the ball harder and chases less. – 2025 Projection: 93/26/89/.285/.339/.488/28

14) Wyatt Langford – TEX, OF, 23.5 – Langford’s surface stats don’t jump off the page with a .253 BA, .740 OPS, 16 homers, and 19 steals in 134 games, but his underlying skills were jumping off the page all season, and it finally showed in September. He went bonkos to close out the season, slashing .289/.372/.579 with 9 homers, 7 steals, and a 19.0/10.2 K%/BB% in his final 32 games. Even if you pull it back to June 3rd, he had a .804 OPS with 15 homers and 18 steals in his final 98 games. And like I mentioned, the underlying skills are super impressive. He hits the ball very hard with a 9.3% Barrel% and 89.6 MPH EV (91.3 MPH EV in those final 32 games). He lifts it with a 16.6 degree launch, he has elite speed with a 29.8 ft/sec sprint, he has above average contact rates (22.9% whiff% and 20.6% K%), and he has an above average plate approach (23% Chase% with a 9.2% BB%). The cherry on top is that his 74.5 MPH swing is nearly elite, and it’s a short swing too with 7 foot length. That swing speed/length combo is special. Only Heliot Ramos swings a faster bat with a shorter swing. He’s going to explode in 2025. – 2025 Projection: 89/26/93/.274/.352/.481/24

15) Jackson Merrill – SDP, OF, 21.11 – Merrill’s ability to raise his launch angle considerably, while not losing even a smidge of contact prowess, is nothing short of incredible. He went from putting up a 59.9% GB% with a 19.2% K% at Single-A in 2022 to putting up a 35.9% GB% with a 17% K% in the majors in 2024. Justin Crawford better be blowing up his celly round the clock to get some pointers on how he did it. It resulted in Merrill having one of, if the not the best rookie season in baseball, slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals, and a 17.0/4.9 K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back it all up with a 11.3% Barrel%, 90.4 MPH EV, and a .376 xwOBA. The only area of his game to quibble with is that he’s never walked a ton, and he chased a lot with a 34.4% Chase%. He’s also never been a huge base stealer in his career, but I don’t think him stealing 20+ bags is out of the question at all. He’s an easy elite dynasty asset, and he’s in a tier with James Wood, Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, and Wyatt Langford as the top rookies in the game. – 2025 Projection: 86/25/92/.288/.336/.492/19

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Imaginary Brick Wall

Month: November 2024

A Top 75 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)