December 2024 – Imaginary Brick Wall

It’s First Base Rankings Week on the Patreon! First Baseman get no respect on real life prospects lists for lack of defensive value, but they have the big bats to make a big fantasy impact if they do hit close to their offensive ceilings, and for fantasy, all prospects need to hit pretty close to their offensive ceiling anyway to make a real impact. And quite frankly, playing 1B is harder than they make it out to be. Put some respect on these men’s gloves. Top 5 free here on the Brick Wall with full analysis, 2025 Projections and Prime Projections for every player. Here is the Top 80+ First Baseman: 2025 Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 75 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections (a Top 100+ is coming later this off-season)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 80+ 1B
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta Braves—Baltimore Orioles—Cincinnati Reds–Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Detroit Tigers—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers (free)—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Oakland Athletics—Philadelphia Phillies—Pittsburgh Pirates—San Diego Padres—Tampa Bay Rays—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals (free)

1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – TOR, 1B, 25.6 – We can finally put the “Vlad has only had a great year in a minor league ballpark” narrative to rest. His 165 wRC+ this year was almost identical to the 166 mark he put up in 2021. Granted he hit 48 homers in the minor league park and only 30 this year, but still. His underlying numbers were screaming that he was legitimately elite despite the relatively mediocre surface stats in 2023, so his big year really isn’t that surprising. I don’t have a fancy bat speed + contact rate stat to give you, but if I did, Vlad, Yordan, and Soto would be the cream of the crop. Vlad swung a 75.9 MPH bat with a 13.8/10.3 K%/BB%. And he crushes the ball with a 93.8 MPH EV. The 7.4 degree launch is still subduing the homer power a bit, and he doesn’t run much with only 2 steals, so I wouldn’t quite call him a truly elite dynasty asset, but he’s not far off. – 2025 Projection: 99/32/109/.308/.383/.528/4

2) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 32.5 – You can find some things here and there which maybe can look like small red flags in hindsight if Harper does start to decline, like a nearly career worst in xwOBA (.361), Barrel% (10.6%), and sprint speed (27.4 ft/sec), but I think that is simply slicing and dicing the numbers too much when it comes to a proven stud like Harper. And none of those marks were too bad or too far off from career norms. His 145 wRC+ was a 3 year high and slightly better than his 142 career wRC+. He crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has a strong plate approach with a 21.9/12.0 K%/BB%. It doesn’t seem like we can count on more than a handful of steals anymore (7 steals), but he strikes me as the type who could rake well into his late 30’s. I wouldn’t be thinking about selling Harper off quite yet. – 2025 Projection: 98/33/99/.287/.382/.520/10

3) Matt Olson – ATL, 1B, 31.0 – What goes up, must come down. After putting up a career year in 2023 with 54 homers, Olson nearly bottomed out with the 2nd worst year of his career in 2024 with a 117 wRC+. While I didn’t see him falling that far, I saw the fall coming, writing in his 2024 Top 1,000 blurb, “2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball.” And now I can follow up that blurb with “2024 strikes me as a down year, and Olson is still one of the premier power hitters in baseball.” He dominated to close out the season with 16 homers and .949 OPS in his final 63 games. He still hit the ball very hard with a 12.4% Barrel% that was right in line with career norms. It was just a down year. He remains one of the best power hitters in the game. – 2025 Projection: 93/36/115/.253/.348/.517/1

4) Pete Alonso – FRA, 1B, 30.4 – Alonso’s BA unsurprisingly bounced back from a .205 BABIP induced .217 BA in 2023, rising to .240 with a .276 BABIP in 2024, which is right around his career norms. The ebbs and flows of a baseball career are always interesting, with luck being such a big part of the game. Make sure to keep that in mind when evaluating Alonso’s career low 34 homers this year too. His 14.4 degree launch was 3.8 degrees lower than last year, so there might have been a conscious attempt to balance out his profile, but 34 homers is a really nice floor to have. And that is basically a reasonable floor with a 95.3 MPH FB/LD EV and a 75.3 MPH swing that is the 16th fastest swing in baseball amongst qualified hitters. Seeing how fast he swings the bat gives added confidence that his skills are not going to tank in his 30’s. This is a special talent who should be ripping dingers deep into his mid 30’s. – 2025 Projection: 92/37/115/.248/.339/.507/3

5) Freddie Freeman – LAD, 1B, 35.7 – The decline has to come one day, right? And as we saw with Paul Goldschmidt, when it comes for a player around this age, their dynasty value falls off a cliff very quickly. If I owned Freeman, even in win now mode, I would be mighty tempted to cash my chips in this off-season, even if the offer isn’t like a godfather type offer. He had another excellent year in 2024 with a 137 wRC+, 22 homers, 9 steals, and a 15.7/12.2 K%/BB% in 147 games. His .370 xwOBA was a career low, but it was still in the top 6% of baseball, which just shows how great of a career he’s having. He should have a gentle decline, but even a gentle decline will tank his trade value. It’s better to sell a year early than a year late. I think this is the year to pull the trigger. – 2025 Projection: 92/25/102/.290/.384/.501/10

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
X/Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)