Top 305 2025 Starting Pitcher Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

It’s time to turn our attention to the other side of the equation, run prevention. They are a fickle, volatile, injury prone bunch, but those are also the attributes that make it so fun (and easy-ish) to find underrated breakouts all over the place. Top 5 free on the Brick Wall. The Top 500 Prospects Rankings are dropping next week and the full Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings will drop the week after that. But first, here is the Top 305 2025 Starting Pitcher Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (full Top 1,000 coming soon)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 100 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS (full Top 500 coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers (free)Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

1) Paul SkenesPIT, RHP, 22.10 – While this is far from the most impressive part of Skenes game, I’ve just been having a lot of fun diving into the new bat tracking data, and of course Skenes ranks towards the top of those leaderboards as well. The disparity amongst pitcher’s induced swing speed is obviously much less than the disparity between hitters, but I still find it interesting. Skenes had the 8th best swing speed against amongst qualified pitchers at 70.9 MPH. The only qualified starter to induce slower swings was Chris Sale, and Will Vest led of all baseball amongst qualified pitchers. That’s just the cherry on top of his elite profile. He throws a 6 pitch mix, and all of them range from above average to elite. His 94 MPH sinker was the most valuable sinker in baseball with a +18 run value. His 98.8 MPH 4-seamer notched a +6 run value, the curveball notched a +2, the sweeper was at +5, the changeup at +2, and while the slider was his only negative value pitch at -2, that was only because he got unlucky on the pitch with a .229 xwOBA. He combined that filth with plus command which led to a 1.96 ERA and 33.1/6.2 K%/BB% in 133 IP. He’s the easiest #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ranking I’ve ever made since  … 2024. Spencer Strider was a damn easy call last off-season, and he’s a perfect example of the only thing that can go wrong, injuries. Pitchers break, and pitchers who throw upper 90’s seem to break even more. You can’t play scared, and you need good pitchers to win, but it’s why I can’t rank any pitcher higher than around Top 20-ish overall on the Dynasty Rankings. They are just inherently too risky. – 2025 Projection: 15/2.77/0.98/227 in 185 IP

2) Tarik SkubalDET, LHP, 28.4 – I was all in on Skubal’s 80.1 IP explosion in 2023, ranking him 59th overall on the 2024 Top 1,000, and placing a futures bet on him to lead the league in strikeouts ($10 to win $800). He not only led all of baseball with 228 strikeouts, but he was also the #1 fantasy pitcher in the game with a 2.39 ERA and 30.3/4.6 K%/BB% in 192 IP. His 96.8 MPH fastball was up another tick from last year and was the 4th most valuable 4-seamer in the game. His changeup is elite with a 46.1% whiff%. His 96.6 MPH sinker was the 24th most valuable sinker in baseball. And his slider was above average. Tack on elite control and you have one of the very best pitchers in baseball. It really wouldn’t be crazy at all to have him above Skenes as the top dog. – 2025 Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/220 in 185 IP

3) Garrett Crochet – BOS, LHP, 25.9 – Paul Skenes is the no doubt #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. I’m not arguing that … buuuuuuuuuuuut … what if Crochet is actually better than him? He put up a better K% (35.1% vs. 33.1%), BB% (5.5% vs. 6.2%), Chase% (33.5% vs. 30.9%), and a much better whiff% (33.0% vs. 28.7%). His 97.2 MPH 4-seamer put up a 31.4% whiff% while Skenes’ 98.8 MPH 4-seamer put up a 24.2% whiff%. Crochet’s cutter put up a 32.7% whiff% while Skenes’ sinker notched a 29.3% whiff%. Crochet’s sweeper notched a 42.7% whiff% while Skenes’ sweeper notched a 22.6% whiff% and his curve notched a 33.7% whiff%. They are both beastly athletes. I described the 6’6”, 245 pound Crochet as a WWE Ballerina in my March Mailbag Podcast. With Chicago, he couldn’t touch Skenes in wins, but he’s in Boston now, and just judging who is the better pitcher, I wouldn’t be so sure the answer is Skenes. Now, Skenes dusted him on ERA (3.58 vs. 1.96), and even though their xERA’s were much much closer (2.83 vs. 2.50), I do think that matters. Crochet also has more of a track record of control problems than Skenes does. Like I said, Skenes is the undeniable #1 dynasty pitcher in the game … but maybe … he won’t be at the end of 2025. Crochet ranked 29th overall on the Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. – 2025 Projection: 15/3.03/1.03/230 in 170 IP

4) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 27.9 – While everyone was focused on George Kirby, waiting for Kirby to turn into a true ace, Gilbert was putting in the work in the shadows, and he emerged as the one to enter true ace territory in 2024. He put up a 3.23 ERA with a 27.4/4.6 K%/BB% in 208.2 IP. He led all of baseball in IP. His 31.7% whiff% is in elite territory for a starter, and his walk rate was in the top 5% of baseball. Elite control, swing and miss, and durability is a Teflon combination. And that isn’t even it. He throws gas with a 96.6 MPH fastball. His splitter is insanely elite with a 50.6% whiff% and .137 xwOBA. His most used pitch is a plus to double plus slider with a 36.8% whiff% and .264 xwOBA. And he has yet another plus secondary in his curve with a 35.4% whiff% and .210 xwOBA. He also throws a useful cutter, giving him a very diverse pitch mix. He straight up doesn’t have a flaw. He has a very very real case to be the top fantasy pitcher and the game, and also possibly the top dynasty pitcher in the game. – 2025 Projection: 15/3.18/0.98/209 in 200 IP

5) Roki Sasaki LAD, RHP, 23.5 – Sasaki and his people pulled whatever back room deals that needed to be pulled and got him coming stateside this season, which is insanely exciting, because there is little doubt that he will be a true ace right from the get go, and possibly the best pitcher in all the land. He’s better than Yamamoto, and you saw Yamamoto’s seamless transition, other than the shoulder injury. But that injury might have pushed LA to a six man rotation, which works just fine for Sasaki. His fastball sits in the upper 90’s and regularly hits over 100 MPH. The splitter is truly elite and the slider is plus. He has prototypical size at a projectable and athletic 6’2”, 187 pounds, and he has plus control/command of his stuff. He’s been so insanely dominant in Japan that he has basically already hit legend status with so many crazy feats, and he’s only 23 years old. He put up a 2.35 ERA with a 28.7/7.1 K%/BB% in 111 IP this year. He was even better in 2023 with a 1.78 ERA and 39.1%/4.9% K%/BB% in 91 IP. As you can see, the biggest and only red flag is injuries, as he has a career high of 129.1 IP. He battled an oblique injury in 2023 and right arm discomfort in 2024. The right arm discomfort is particularly concerning because his stuff was actually down a tick or two this year. It was still beastly, but would any of us be surprised if Tommy John/internal brace surgery was right around the corner? You can’t be too scared off by that, because even if he needs it, he should still return as an ace. He’s so easily the top pick in First Year Player Drafts, and he has a very real argument to be the top dynasty pitcher in the game. – 2025 Projection: 12/3.06/1.04/175 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.72/0.92/240 in 185 IP

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (full Top 1,000 coming soon)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF–Top 305 SP
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 100 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS (full Top 500 coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers (free)Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 (A Collection from the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

This post is a collection of strategies and thoughts from my 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports. Some were free and most were on the Patreon. I wanted to collect them in one easy to read post. Also make sure to check out my previous strategy articles if you haven’t read those already, linked to below. Here are my 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 (A Collection from the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports):

Strategy Articles from Previous Years
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2019
10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2021
Top 10 Trade Negotiation Techniques (Patreon only)
16 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2023 (A Collection from the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)
20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (A Collection from the 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (full Top 1,000 coming soon)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS-Top 260 OF
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 100 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS (full Top 500 coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS

1) The little man discount has been one of the most profitable discounts over the years in Dynasty Baseball. I get it, because when you are watching a prospect, the ones who are massive human beings with insane tools are so very easy to identify and drool over. And I sure as hell love those unicorns as well (see my Kevin Alcantara blurb), but that doesn’t mean you should discount the truly electric little guys. Sure, if the EV data doesn’t back them up, discount away, but when the EV data does back them up, there is no reason to be so skeptical. Little man Corbin Carroll (5’10”) was my 3rd ranked FYPD prospect in his draft year because his EV data was impressive, and he still dropped to 16th overall in the draft. I remember when Carson Cistulli, formerly of Fangraphs, was extolling the virtues of the 5’9” Mookie Betts from before I was writing when nobody else was. The 5’9” Jose Ramirez was a target of mine when I was just playing the game of dynasty, not writing yet, and sure I didn’t keep him after his lackluster 2015 season, missing out on the beginning of his breakout in 2016, but clearly I was onto something. And no, throwing Ramirez back into the player pool before his breakout definitely doesn’t still eat at me almost 10 years later. Definitely not ;). Back to current day, just like Carroll, Matt Shaw fell to a way too low 13th overall in his draft year, and he’s still a bit underrated. Jett Williams is another worthy little man discount pick, as is Slade Caldwell in this year’s first year player draft. It’s the gift that keeps on giving, and until the right little men start getting valued correctly, I’ll keep on scooping those little cuties up at that discounted price.

2) I thought it would be fun to dive into some of the new bat speed data Statcast hooked us up with this season. The first and most obvious thing to jump out is that the top of the rankings are littered with the top power hitters and hard hitting players in baseball, often coming with lots of strikeouts. And the bottom of the rankings are littered with the best contact hitters in baseball, often coming with little to no power. But the real question is if a slow bat automatically eliminates you from hitting for power, and the answer to that is no, there are more than a few exceptions to the rule like Mookie Betts, Isaac Paredes, Marcus Semien, Will Smith, Jose Altuve, Jeimer Candelario, Cody Bellinger, Adley Rutschman, and Ozzie Albies. But as you can see, even with those guys, their power can be kinda variable from year to year. And there are not many of them on the bottom third of that leaderboard. And in fantasy especially where power rules the day, it’s clear that there is a definite advantage to going after guys who swing a fast bat. Some fun names at the top of those rankings to possibly target this season are Oneil Cruz, Garrett Mitchell, Jordan Walker, Jhonkensey Noel, Matt Wallner, Junior Caminero, Jo Adell, Jasson Dominguez, Zack Dezenzo, Tyler Soderstom, Trey Sweeney, Heliot Ramos, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, Lawrence Butler, Hunter Goodman and Addison Barger. And here are some less fun names at the bottom of the rankings where it would seem to indicate a real power breakout might not be so easy: Nolan Schanuel, Jacob Wilson, Brooks Lee, Anthony Volpe (hmmm, uh oh, you better get back to lifting and pulling), Keibert Ruiz, Andrew Benintendi (I only include Benintendi because of course Benintendi is on this list, and of course Bo Bichette has below average bat speed too, who I started to comp to Benintendi’s career arc unfortunately), Bryson Stott, Brice Turang, Jake McCarthy and Andres Gimenez. Of course some of this is a choice. Guys who “swing for the fences” are going to swing faster, hit for more power, and strikeout more. Guys who swing slower are going to make more contact, but not hit for as much power. So I don’t think bat speed is necessarily a completely sticky thing if a player decides to change his approach to hit for more power or contact. We’ll have to keep an eye on this in future years as we continue to build on this data to see how often that happens exactly, and how often it’s successful. Really cool to have this data at our fingertips now.

3) There is no doubt that the renewed efforts of MLB trying to crack down on players lying about their age is very interesting as a baseball fan, and just interesting in general. And there is also no doubt that age is a major factor when evaluating young players, and you see that with teams pulling their offers to some of the players who got caught. But at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), it’s just not an area that I am looking to dive into and try to parse through. If your gut is telling you a player is older than they claim, feel free to make that gut call and move that player down your rankings, but even if my gut was telling me a player was older, I just couldn’t trust it enough to really act on it. I have to evaluate the player as their official age, and I have to rank them based on their official age as well. That’s just how I’m choosing to play it, and as I wrote in the Eduardo Tait blurb, this isn’t a new thing (remember Danny Almonte?). It’s how I’ve always been playing it, and I don’t think I’ve been burned by it too bad, although I guess I wouldn’t even know if I did. Ignorance is bliss 😉

4) For even the most iron willed dynasty owner, it is a major gut punch when a prospect you love gets the call to the majors, struggles hard, and then gets sent back down to the minors. When it happens to an elite or near elite universally hyped prospect, it’s much easier to stay level headed and hold strong, but when it happens to a good, but not necessarily great prospect it can be much tougher to hold on. Trade value plummets for the non elite guys, and you start to question if their team truly believes in them, thinking they might not get another chance so soon. But let us use Lawrence Butler (and Parker Meadows too) as a lesson to not let a demotion rattle us if we still believe in a player’s skillset. Even elite prospects can struggle in their first taste or two of the majors, so certainly we need to give some grace for non elite ones as well. How to apply that for this season? Well, Ben Rice is staring us right in the face. Rice is not an elite prospect, but he is a relatively well liked one, and he took almost the exact same Butler path in the majors with great underlying numbers (15.6% Barrel%) and poor surface stats (.613 OPS in 173 PA). Admit it, you are questioning how much the Yanks really believe in him and if he will get another chance. I get it, because I am too, but I’m going to use Butler and Meadows as my pillars of strength to not be so quick to give up on Rice. I still like him long term, even with the Goldy signing.

5) While others may shy away or not trust the small sample MLB debut, I love going after it, because it creates a perfect combination of being proven on the MLB level and still being very underrated. Of course we all love the safety of a larger sample, but the larger the sample, the more everyone trusts it, and the more everyone trusts it, the less value there is. Pitchers in particular are great small sample targets. The list of pitchers to get called up, look extremely good in a few starts, and still take months to get the respect they deserve is extremely long. You just have to look at the value you could have gotten on Spencer Schwellenbach earlier in the season when I called him a major target extremely fast. Sean Burke is the target this applies to this off-season. Burke ain’t Schwellenbach, but you get my point. It’s worth it to stick your neck out just a bit to acquire these guys, because the payoff can be huge.

6) It’s no secret that I enjoy a good victory lap like Wade Boggs on horseback taking a victory lap around Yankee Stadium after beating the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Like Boggs, I also eat chicken before I write every article, and I also drink 107 beers on a flight before going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles just hours later. Come to think of it, maybe that was CJ Abrams problem. Not that he partied until 8 am, but that he went 0 for 3 right after that. Dude, we all know that if you are going to be a rebel, you better produce. Maybe he did deserve that punishment after all ;). Now where was I? Oh yea, victory lapping. While I do believe in celebrating your hits, I also believe in taking the walk of shame for your misses, so after horseback victory lapping James Wood and half ass victory lapping DJ Herz in the Washington Nationals Team Report, let’s kick off the first Dynasty Thoughts/Strategy section of the off-season by finding lessons in who I consider to be my biggest miss, Shota Imanaga. I had Imanaga pegged as a good, but not great MLB pitcher, giving him a projection of 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP. He ended up going 15/2.91/1.02/174 in 173.1 IP. I believe where I went wrong was that I overrated fastball velocity, and while to my credit, the 91.7 MPH fastball actually didn’t miss that many bats (17.5% whiff%) or induce weak contact (91.2 MPH EV with .327 xwOBA), it was still a positive value pitch with a 52% usage rate, and it came with elite control, an elite secondary (splitter), a diverse pitch mix, and a history of ace production in the 2nd toughest league in the world. I shouldn’t have let a low 90’s fastball blind me to how good and established the rest of the profile was, and also to the fact that the fastball was still pretty good despite the low velocity. This wasn’t my only miss, but I believe that every other miss I had, my process was good and I don’t regret my take on them. Imanaga is the only one where I’m disappointed in my evaluation, and I will be taking those lessons with me headed into 2025.

7) I didn’t plan on releasing my Angels team list on the same day that Fangraphs released their Angels list, but that is just how it fell. I actually love comparing and contrasting all of the different team lists that come out all around the same time. It’s interesting to see how value can change drastically based on a real life list vs. fantasy list. And it’s most interesting to see how each evaluator has their own biases, their own way of evaluating what a player will look like a few years down the line, and their own tools/skills/production which they weigh more or less heavily. In order to get the most value out of an evaluator’s list, it’s important to have some insight into their individual style. I definitely try to make it a point to let you in on that style. And you only have to have been reading me for like 5 minutes (see the Nolan Schanuel blurb) to know my biases, which is power/speed upside for days, hit tool risk be damned. I could give the scouting report on other evaluators and list their biases, but I don’t think that is my place. I will leave that up for you to decipher, and many of those other sources will also be clear about how they value certain things. So when you are looking at different lists, the ordinal number is only one part of the evaluation. Knowing why an evaluator may be higher or lower on a player due to how they lean in their evaluations can give better context into that ranking. I hope I convey that in my write-ups and projections, so regardless of where a player ranks, if you are looking for a certain profile (safety, hit tool, plate approach etc …), you don’t necessarily have to get caught up in a low ranking.

8) I find there is a constant push and pull between do I bet on the prospect who has an excellent hit tool, and needs to add power, or the guy who has monster power, but needs to improve the hit tool. Obviously it’s a case by case basis, but I do find prospectors generally end up in one camp or the other. Historically, on real life lists, plate skills used to rule the day, and guys with risky hit tools would get pummeled in the rankings. But even on real life lists, that has started to change over the years, and fantasy lists aren’t the same as real life lists anyway. Upside rules the day in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, whereas safety is much more valuable for a major league team. That is why I always leaned towards the power first, hit tool later profiles, rather than the other way around. But it’s completely reasonable to lean the other way too, and when looking at the top dynasty assets, it’s actually pretty even on where the top breakouts came from. Judge, Ohtani, Witt, Tatis, Elly, Gunnar, Carroll, Yordan are all players who had elevated strikeout rates in the minors to varying degrees and are now elite dynasty assets. Mookie, Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Tucker, Vlad, Soto, Turner, Devers all took the other path of hit tool first. You can argue how cleanly those players fit into those categories, but my point is, there are multiple ways to skin a cat, and there are multiple ways to build a successful dynasty team. My advise is that you can have a lean to one side or the other (like I mentioned, and like you know, I lean power first), but you should still mix and match with different profiles in your minor league system. For one, you never know who a potential trade partner is going to prefer, and it’s also nice to diversify the system a bit with different player types.

9) Does any sport tinker with the ball, the rules, the uniforms, the size of the equipment (bases), etc … more than baseball? I’m not even saying that I hate it. It’s kinda fun honestly that they are willing to try new things out for the betterment of the game, and overall, I think the changes they have made have been a net positive. So while I’m down for it, it makes preparing for every new season a whole lot more complicated. In last year’s Chicago Cubs Team Report Strategy Section, I wrote in part, “Jumping off from the Bellinger blurb, MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it.” And right on cure, the ball was less juicy, and Bellinger went from 26 homers in 130 games in 2023 to 18 homers in 130 games in 2024. How will the ball play in 2025? Who the hell knows. I don’t even think MLB knows. Enter Brandon Sproat and Quinn Mathews, who were two big breakouts who saw their numbers drop off a cliff with the MLB ball at Triple-A. Triple-A is the only minor league level to use the MLB ball. The ball isn’t the only change for these young pitchers, so it’s hard to just isolate that one factor. Joining a new team, new league, new city, new home ballpark, and it being the very end of a long season are also complicating factors. My instinct is to not ignore the drop off in production, but also not to put too much weight on it. Sproat and Mathews are still extremely exciting pitching prospects, but I would be lying if I said it wasn’t in the back of my mind. Keeping up with all of the different balls and rule changes is just part of the game now.

10) Not so much a strategy or thought here, but the more I think about it, the more I’m kinda digging Sawyer Gipson Long. He very well might be freely available in many leagues, and you might be able to use an IL spot on him too depending on your league setup. Or just as a free stash in your minors. His MLB debut was no joke. That type of swing and miss is quite rare, even in 20 IP. His 28.5/6.1 K%/BB% in 341 minor league IP is really damn impressive too. He never got the respect he deserved, even from me, and even after that strong debut. I think a lot of people have more or less moved on from him, making it a perfect time to acquire him for nothing or probably almost nothing. If fully healthy, which is obviously a risk, it could be an extremely small gamble for a pretty big payoff.

11) I’ve already patted myself on the back for my futures bet of Tarik Skubal leading the league in strikeouts, and I nailed my Pittsburgh Pirates Wins Over bet, but my Cincinnati Reds Wins Over bet was a disaster the second their entire team started dropping like flies in March, and now is the time for me to take my Walk of Shame on that. Those were literally the only 3 future bets I made (with some Pirates and Reds WS bets sprinkled in just for long shot funsies), so overall it was a good showing, but the plan was to go perfect (at least on the Pirates and Reds wins bet), so I do have a bit of a sour taste in my mouth. If you would have told me that Hunter Greene and Elly would have the years they just had, I would have assumed the Reds were maybe one of the best teams in baseball, but baseball is a team game, and it didn’t play out like that. I could bemoan the injuries/suspensions and make excuses, but that is part of gambling, and a loss is a loss. I was absolutely perfect on these team O/U bets going on 3 years now, but this is a reminder that no matter how much it looks like a lock, anything can happen. Only bet what you can afford to lose. It is for entertainment only.

12) It’s extremely easy to get tunnel vision with pure player evaluation when making decisions in dynasty, but supply and demand should often be the driver of your decisions instead. How I rank players in my FYPD rankings, is the same order you will find them on my overall Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, which is the same order you will find them on my Top 1,000+ Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I try my darndest to give truly actionable rankings/content that fully incorporates how dynasty leagues operate in practice, rather than just in theory, and I know that when that point comes in a dynasty draft (usually around Top 400-ish area) where the supply of MLB starters dries up, especially MLB starters with some upside, it’s a feeding frenzy to grab them before they are gone. That is why Hye-seong Kim slots in high on my FYPD Rankings. Players like Kim who have a path to a full time job, and have some upside, are much more valuable to grab than one of the many, many, many high upside lotto ticket prospects you can grab later on. It’s just simple supply and demand. Kim doesn’t have the upside of many of the bats I have ranked after him on the FYPD rankings, and he definitely may come in and be underwhelming, but I still believe he’s worth taking the shot on at that point in the rankings. And I do personally like his profile too as a hit/speed/defense play. You have to take into account the environment of your league, and what is a bucket of player where the supply is limited (guys with jobs) vs. what is the bucket of player where there is plenty of supply (high upside prospects). This will change league to league though. In shallow leagues, low end MLB starters might be very easy to pick up all season, whereas high upside prospects are only available in a FYPD and they can’t be picked up during the season. That will change the equation for sure. Even in a shallow league though, I still think Kim has the skillset to make an impact. Regardless, you get the point. Make sure you understand what is hard to acquire in your league, and what is easy, and then slant your decision making process to best take advantage of that.

13) Evaluating Angel Genoa reminded me of a question I got asked on my August Top 327 Prospects Rankings Update from Zach Alexander. He asked, “Do you ever feel pressure to rank guys highly that are rising on everyone else’s rankings?” And I thought my answer could give at least some insight into my thinking on a guy like Genoa, who I don’t particularly love, but is also getting a lot of real life list love: “The short answer is yes, partially because trade value is a huge factor in dynasty when it comes to prospects especially, and arguably is more important than holding prospects, or at least equally important. So if someone is getting tons of hype that isn’t my favorite type of profile to go after, I might not rank him as the high guy, but they still deserve a solid ranking. And also partially because I’m human and if a ton of sources I respect love a guy, there might be something there that I’m undervaluing. But overall, I 100% make an effort to rank with a mind of my own and that is something I’ve done from my very first ranking. And something I constantly preach which is to have a mind of your own and value prospects with a mind of your own especially. I have no issue being low on guys (like Gabriel Moreno when he was getting elite mainstream love), and especially love being high on underrated, underhyped guys. Hitting on underrated, under ranked studs is definitely my favorite part of the game (like Mark Vientos).” … and beyond just ranking, this is also how I play the game. I won’t reach for a guy getting lots of real life love, but if they drop far enough, I know that I should be able to get solid trade return on them down the line. So even if I like another prospect more than them, I still might pull the trigger for trade value alone.

14) Low upside college bats are by far the least interesting bucket of player in first year player drafts for me. College bats are old enough where you can’t project very much upside on a player who has yet to show it. Even with hit tool first, lower upside high school bats you can dream of a possible power breakout in their age 19/20/21 year old season. With college bats, those seasons are already behind them, and the big power breakout didn’t come. Not to say it’s impossible to find untapped upside in your mid to late 20’s, we certainly see it often, but it’s not something to bet on when you are trying to strike gold. I always pack the back third of my FYPD Rankings with the mystery that is high priced international signings, and if your minor league system is deep enough, which it likely is if you are wading deep into the FYPD waters, why not take a shot on pure upside. Go for the high school bat or international prospect, even in deep leagues. You don’t need nine million prospects. It’s okay for a bunch of them to bust to clear out your system and then restock with the next group of lotto tickets. Because hitting on one of those lotto tickets, like Jesus Made, can be a franchise changer. Hitting on Griff O’Ferrall might not even leave a dent on your team.

15) After what Garrett Crochet and Reynaldo Lopez did this year (and Michael King too really), I foresee a feeding frenzy on relief to starter transitions during draft season in March. And since we live in a copy cat world, MLB teams might be more apt to make that transition with some of their leading candidates in the bullpen. Even with the increased attention that is likely coming their way, it will almost certainly still be an excellent category to find value in. Crochet and Lopez paid off humongously this year. Jose Soriano is still sliding under the radar as a very successful transition. Jordan Hicks and AJ Puk were two other popular transition picks who didn’t pay off, although Hicks still put together a solid year, and Puk just went back to being an elite high leverage reliever. Not the worst outcomes. Even with a pushed up price, it is worth going after these guys. I already named Aaron Ashby a major target in the Milwaukee Team Report, and a recent Jeff Zimmerman article just quoted Milwaukee brass as saying they still view him as a possible starter. That is huge. Adrian Morejon is another great candidate, and unlike Ashby, he has a path to a rotation spot out of Spring. It was already announced that Clay Holmes will make the transition, and I’m in for it. I will keep an eye out for more of these targets, but the best candidates become obvious pretty early on in Spring Training. Don’t underrate these guys when we find out who they are even if they feel pricier than last year’s candidates. There is enough value on that bone.

16) One of my main goals when naming targets is to find potentially core dynasty baseball assets at reasonable or cheap prices. I lumped Henry Davis in a “target tier” with Jordan Westburg and Parker Meadows last off-season. Westburg was the big hit there, Davis was the big miss, and Meadows landed somewhere in between. All of them should have come relatively cheap or at a reasonable price in your dynasty league. The goal isn’t for 100% of them to hit. That would be unrealistic. The goal is to hit on enough of them, and then the ones that don’t hit, you move on from and take a stab at another potential breakout. Now I know a lot of this is in theory. In practice, every league is different. I managed to scoop Westburg for free in my 12 teamer, and now he’s a core piece. In my 18 teamer, I had to trade 3 years of Bryan Woo for 7 years of Henry Davis where I desperately needed a catcher, and well, I’m kicking myself for that deal. Giving up Woo wasn’t “cheap,” and I still desperately need a catcher. As I mentioned in the Davis blurb, I don’t regret my process or take on Davis, but the lesson I’m taking away from his miss, is to make sure you really are acquiring these “underrated” young targets at the right price. If you start to reach too high, it eliminates a lot of the value you are hoping to get from them in the first place, and if they do bust, it hurts more than it should have.

17) I find that rostering steals only types creates more problems than they solve. For one, you only need to win the category by one steal, so blowing other teams out in steals doesn’t help you at all. And because you don’t want to overdo it with steals, it forces you into player acquisition choices (draft and trades) that might not really be optimal long term decisions. I already target balanced power/speed combos first and foremost, so I’m generally building a team that will compete in steals without rostering a steals only guy. They would really be overkill, so it’s not someone I would want to start often anyway. And in points leagues and leagues that have 6+ hitting categories, these types of players have even less value. So it’s not that I don’t think a prospect like Chandler Simpson or Enrique Bradfield can be valuable if they get playing time, it’s that I don’t think their value fits into my team building strategy. If you build differently, or you inadvertently ended up with a team that is extremely power heavy, then they might make more sense for your squad.

18) Man, I wish I had the Marlins in my dynasty leagues, giving up nearly elite upside starters (Jesus Luzardo) for light hitting speedsters (Caba and Body). I thought Caba was getting a bit overrated (certainly for fantasy), and obviously Philly didn’t view him as untouchable either. If you can pull the same sell high move for Caba that Philly just did, I would jump on it. As all dynasty owners know too well, I bet you there is another team out there going, “they sold Luzardo for that? My offer was 3 times better than that!!” hah. Also, hasn’t Miami acquired enough of these guys with Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Jared Serna, Max Acosta, Javier Sanoja, Vidal Brujan, and more. I mean, how many of them do you need? How about targeting some impact. I get they have more value in real life, but still. I’m probably being overly harsh as it’s not like Caba and Boyd are devoid of upside,  but they have 6 total homers in 314 career games between the two of them. As for Luzardo, he was already one of my favorite bounce back targets in 2025, and I like him even more now that a good team was willing to trade for him.

19) I find it fitting to close this 2025 Collection out with what I wrote the day after Thanksgiving in the Kansas City Royals Team Report: “Considering it’s Thanksgiving break, I thought it would be fitting to use this section to give a MONSTER thank you to each and every one of you. When I started Imaginary Brick Wall back in December 2015, I had absolutely zero expectations, other than I wanted to write about what I loved, and hoped that I would attract readers that had those same passions. I wrote (and podcasted) for free for 5 years, and while I only got a few hundred views when I first started, even that was insanely cool to me. In my book, that meant I could officially call myself a writer! I again had zero expectations when I started the Patreon in 2021, and I can’t put my gratitude into words to see how many people wanted to support my work. It truly means so much to me, and I never take it for granted. I pour my passion and heart into every single piece of content I put out, and I will continue to do that until the day I hang up the keyboard, which will hopefully be never. I want to write until the day I leave this Earth, and thank you so much for allowing me to do that.”

Strategy Articles from Previous Years
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2019
10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By from 2021
Top 10 Trade Negotiation Techniques (Patreon only)
16 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2023 (A Collection from the 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)
20 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2024 (A Collection from the 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (full Top 1,000 coming soon)
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS-Top 260 OF
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 100 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS (full Top 500 coming soon)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

 

Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2025 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

There will always be a warm place in my heart for the OG Top 100 Prospects Rankings (I do a full Top 500+ Prospects Rankings in very early February). I remember the good old days when if a prospect didn’t crack a Top 100 Prospects Rankings, they were considered garbage. When a non Top 100 prospect used to break out on the MLB level, people’s heads would explode on how such a “non” prospect could slip through the cracks. And as a writer, if you were able to identify a non Top 100 prospect who was actually good, you were hailed as one of the true geniuses of your time. Times have changed obviously, and now prospect lists can be never ending. A non Top 100 prospect used to be super deep and underrated. Now, a prospect has to be like a non Top 500 prospect to impress people. So before I drop the full Top 500 in a few weeks, let’s lay down some roots with the OG Top 100. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Full analysis, Prime Projections, and 2025 Projections (if applicable) for every player. Here is the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2025 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2025 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 Catchers–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-TOP 100 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS (a Top 500 coming soon)
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: END OF SEASON MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports, Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

Atlanta BravesBaltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox (free)Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs (free)Chicago White SoxCleveland GuardiansDetroit TigersKansas City RoyalsLos Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers (free)Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers (free)Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)New York Yankees (free)Oakland AthleticsPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesSan Diego PadresTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersToronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals (free)

*I excluded Roki Sasaki from these rankings because I’m sick of putting him first on all of these prospects rankings when he’s really not a prospect, but he would be first if I included him

1) Dylan CrewsWAS, OF, 23.1 – Crews’ dynasty value/hype has seen some fluctuations since being drafted, but the thing that was quietly flying under the radar, was how good he was on the bases, and for fantasy, that has a major impact on his value. He stole 25 bases in 100 games in the upper minors, and then he stole 12 bags with a double plus 29.3 ft/sec sprint in his 31 game MLB debut. He only stole 6 bases in 71 games his junior year of college, and then went 3 for 7 in his pro debut, so I can’t blame anyone for not expecting it, but it’s clearly a real skill he has, and it makes Crews insanely exciting for fantasy again. He combines the speed with above average contact rates (19.7% K%), above average chase rates (26.6%), and plus power (94.7 MPH FB/LD EV in the majors and a 90.2 MPH EV in the minors). The only quibble in his profile is the low launch (8.8 degrees), but he has the skillset to make that work, and he only needs to raise it a bit higher to be in a completely fine range, which I’m betting he will. The Langford vs. Crews debate might not end up as easy as we thought, and with Crews not really being considered in that lofty tier anymore, there could be a buy window here this off-season. If you can buy off the relatively subdued hype and .641 MLB OPS, I would be all over it. He also has a lock on a full time job. He’s my #1 prospect in baseball, and he just ranked 44th overall on A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – 2025 Projection: 81/21/76/.259/.334/.448/26 Prime Projection: 94/27/97/.278/.359/.481/28

2) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 22.2 – The Yankees didn’t want to unleash Dominguez in the majors lasty year, and his .617 OPS in the 67 PA he did receive isn’t super impressive, but make no mistake, Dominguez is still on the superstar path. His 75.4 MPH swing is straight elite, which proves right there that his talent really wasn’t that overhyped as an international prospect. His 23.4% whiff% was comfortably above average, which is pretty huge to see, and his 28.1% Chase% was slightly above average. Tack on plus speed, and Dominguez’ beastly potential was even able to shine through despite the Yanks refusing to unleash him. And oh yea, he destroyed the upper minors immediately after returning from Tommy John surgery in mid May with a 135 wRC+, 11 homers, 16 steals (in 17 attempts) and a 20.0/8.8 K%/BB% in 58 games. Is he really 22 years old and not like 26 years old? Beats me. But I don’t care when it comes to a talent this huge (I gave my thoughts on MLB cracking down on players’ lying about their ages in the Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Team Report). I see no reason why the Yanks won’t unleash him immediately in 2025, and he could be on a beeline for elite dynasty asset status in short order. Go after him. – 2025 Projection: 83/21/76/.246/.323/.434/26 Prime Projection: 109/28/91/.266/.351/.487/34

3) Kristian Campbell BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 – Campbell possesses one of the most visually disgusting swings I have ever seen, and I mean that in the best way possible. It looks like he literally unhinges his shoulder to turn his body into a cannon, absolutely unfurling on the baseball. Here is what I wrote about a homer Campbell hit in early September in the in-season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns: “on his latest homer, I think he dislocated his shoulder with one of the most bad intentions swings I’ve seen.”  Underscoring my visual evaluation of that explosive shoulder movement is that shortly after that homer he hit the IL with a lat strain, which is right under the shoulder blades. Campbell underwent a well documented swing change and bat speed training to unlock more power last off-season, which was obviously successful beyond anybody’s wildest imagination, so let’s just hope that it’s not going to cause more injuries. That is the only small thing that is even rattling around in my brain as a negative, because the season he just had was nothing short or spectacular. He slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers, 24 steals, and a 19.9/14.3 K%/BB% in 115 games spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He was just as dominant in the upper minors as he was at High-A with across the board domination. He hits it hard, he has a good feel to hit, he has a good approach, he has size (6’3”, 191 pounds), he has bat speed, he can lift it, and he has speed. You can be hesitant to fully buy in because it feels like he came out of nowhere, but he put up a 1.033 OPS in 45 games in the ACC in 2023, a .932 OPS in 58 games in 2022 in the Northwoods League, and then a .911 OPS in 22 games at mostly High-A in his pro debut, so it’s not his fault that everyone underrated him. He always had a good feel to hit and good approach, and he always had the frame and athleticism to tack on more power, so I’m not going to hold it against him that he wasn’t more hyped (4th round pick in 2023). He still didn’t lift and pull the ball a ton with an under 40% Pull% and under 30% FB%, but he knew when to pick his spots (as you saw with that homer video above), and he has the type of profile that can thrive without an extreme lift and pull profile. I’m all in on Campbell. He’s an elite prospect who has a chance to break camp in the bigs. 2025 Projection: 68/16/61/.252/.324/.423/19 Prime Projection: 98/26/89/.277/.356/.478/26

4) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.11 – Because the rule of prospecting is that if you are even the smallest, tiniest, tiny bit lower on a prospect than other prospectors (most have Anthony as the #1 prospect in baseball), you must bash that prospect with an overly critical lens, let me start with the negatives here. For one, Anthony isn’t the best base stealer with a career 38 steals in 52 attempts (he was 21 for 28 last year), so there is risk that he doesn’t run as much in the majors as we hope. Secondly, he hits the ball on the ground a lot with an around 50% GB% in 2024, which could limit his homer upside. And lastly, there is some hit tool risk with a 23.5% K%. Now that we got that out of the way, let me just say that I obviously love Anthony, he’s a legit 50/50 coin flip with Campbell, and he’s a no doubt elite prospect. He started the season as a 19 year old in the upper minors and obliterated both Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .291/.396/.498 with 18 homers, 21 steals, and a 23.5/14.6 K%/BB% in 119 games. He crushes the ball, he has speed, he has size, he has elite age to level production, and he hit both lefties and righties well in 2024. He’s as close to a Gunnar Henderson clone as there is, and if you wanted to put him as the #1 prospect in baseball, I wouldn’t argue with you. He’s going to be a beast. 2025 Projection: 51/13/46/.251/.328/.422/10 Prime Projection: 92/31/98/.272/.363/.493/18

5) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B/2B/SS, 23.4 – The little man discount never fails. Baseball scouts see a little man, and they immediately shave a few inches of projection right off the top. I don’t mind it, because it consistently creates excellent buying opportunities for the right players (see the Chicago Cubs Team Report Dynasty Strategy Section below for more thoughts on this), and Matt Shaw is definitely one of those right players. He went a little later than he should have in the real MLB Draft, then he went a little later than he should have in Dynasty First Year Player Drafts, and now he’s getting ranked a little later than he should be on prospect lists. He’s an elite prospect that gets ranked like a merely good one. He’s under 6’0”, but his bat packs a true punch, putting up an 89.3 MPH EV with a 14.6 degree launch in 35 games at Triple-A. He smoked 21 homers on the season in 121 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not a pull machine, but a lot of these lift and pull machines put up some pretty low batting averages, and a profile like Shaw doesn’t need to only pull the ball. He can use his hard hit ability, plus speed (31 steals), and plus contact rates (18.2% K%) to do damage when he goes oppo. He also walks a ton with a 11.9% BB%, making him a likely top of the order bat. Don’t fall into the little man trap, Shaw is going to be a do everything fantasy terror when he gets his shot, and with the Isaac Paredes/Cam Smith trade, that shot could come very early into 2025. Shaw’s been a target for me from before his junior year of college, and he remains a target for me. – 2025 Projection: 71/17/65/.256/.318/.419/22 Prime Projection: 96/23/83/.276/.348/.461/26

6) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 21.2 – Williams put up a 31.8% K% in 105 games at High-A in 2023, so the worry was that the K rate would explode against upper minors pitching, but that didn’t happen. It actually improved at Double-A with a 28.5% K%, and that was good enough to let his special talent shine. He jacked 20 homers with 33 steals, a 11.5% BB% and a 142 wRC+ in 115 games. He’s a still projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with an explosive righty swing that is made to launch homers. He’s also an excellent athlete with plus speed and plus SS defense. Tampa’s SS job is literally waiting for him, and because of his plus defense, he is sure to have all the leash he can handle even if it takes his hit tool a year or two to adjust to MLB pitching. If he can keep the K% in the high 20’s, he will be a beast, and if he can continue to improve on it at only 21 years old, there is near elite dynasty asset upside. – 2025 Projection: 28/10/35/.230/.300/.424/9 Prime Projection: 89/28/96/.254/.334/.483/23

7) Leodalis De Vries – SDP, SS, 18.6 – De Vries is my pick to be the #1 overall fantasy prospect in baseball by this time next year (in a tight race with Walker Jenkins and Sebastian Walcott), that is unless he loses rookie eligibility because San Diego are madmen when it comes to promoting their elite prospects. There are already rumors they are considering calling De Vries and Salas up in 2025, which is straight wild. It did work out for Jackson Merrill, so who am I to judge? Merrill was 20 years old of course while De Vries and Salas are 18, but I love to see a team pushing the limits and setting new upper standards on how fast a prospect can fly through the minors. And De Vries has the type of talent that just might be able to pull it off. He was sent straight to full season ball for his pro debut, and while it took him a few months to find his footing, he went gangbusters once he did, slashing .275/.400/.563 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 20.5/14.9 K%/BB% in his final 40 games. Even with the early struggles, he still put up a 116 wRC+ in 75 games which is just silly for a 17 year old. The thing that separates De Vries from Jenkins, Walcott and De Paula for me, is that there are zero questions about him getting to his raw power. He put up a 32.4% GB%, 49.3% FB%, and 49.5% Pull%. I fully believe those other guys will get to their raw power as well, don’t get me wrong, but De Vries seems to be one step ahead of them in that area. His season ended in mid August with a shoulder injury, but he played in the AFL, and while he didn’t play especially well, it’s still nice to see the shoulder isn’t an issue. He’s an elite prospect right now, and if he doesn’t end up at #1, he won’t be far off. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 91/31/99/.271/.353/.513/20

8) Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 20.1 – My Kyle Tucker comp for Jenkins last off-season turned out to be eerily accurate, at least for what they each did in their first full year of pro ball as 19 year old’s. Tucker had 9 homers with 32 steals and a 16.3/10.1 K%/BB% in 117 games in the lower minors, while Jenkins had 6 homers with 17 steals and a 12.8/15.2 K%/BB% in 82 games. Like Jenkins, Tucker also wasn’t a burner, and nobody really expected the steal totals to stick in the majors, but they did. And like Jenkins, the only thing that hadn’t fully developed yet was the power, but Tucker had a monster power explosion the very next season, hitting 25 homers in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. I see no reason why Jenkins can’t have that same power explosion at 6’3”, 210 pounds with one of the sweetest lefty swings this game has ever seen. He doesn’t hit the ball on the ground too much and he can pull it, so while his hard hit numbers weren’t too impressive, they weren’t too bad either, and it would be pretty shocking if he didn’t develop impact power. He’s on a beeline for elite dynasty asset, and he’s among the favorites to be the #1 prospect in baseball by the middle of 2025. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 103/27/96/.282/.365/.504/18

9) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 22.0 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023 and missed the entire 2024 regular season, but he got healthy in time for the AFL, and he’s gone right back to dominating with a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 18/4 K/BB in 15.2 IP over 6 outings. Just seeing that he was able to ramp up and start pitching in games without getting re-injured is a big first step that we can cross off our worry list this off-season. But he’s also proving he is nearly 100% healthy with the plus to double plus fastball sitting mid to upper 90’s. Like we saw with Shane Baz, it seems that breaking ball crispness and consistency can be something that lags behind after Tommy John, but long term the slider projects as plus and he also throws a lesser used curve and change that could end up plus pitches in their own right. If you ignore the injury, he’s basically a perfect pitching prospect with size, athleticism, velocity, double plus fastball, plus secondary, diverse pitch mix, and plus control. And now that we’ve seen him back on the mound and thriving, the injury risk is a bit lessened. He moves back into my top spot among pitching prospects after his AFL performance, but it’s still a tight race with Noah Schultz, who I absolutely love. It was announced the Phillies plan to slow play him in 2025, which his ETA in the majors around July, and if that helps keep him healthy, avoiding the end of season dilemma for a contending team where he’s at his innings limit, I’m all for it. – 2025 Projection: 6/3.68/1.20/86 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 15/2.95/0.91/225 in 180 IP

10) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 21.8 – Baby Johnson is the #1B pitching prospect in baseball, and while there are other really good contenders (Jobe, Bubba, Kumar), Schultz holds this spot for being absolutely unprecedented. Even the Baby Johnson nickname might not fit, as Randy Johnson had an insane 318 walks in 400.1 minor league IP before getting the call to the bigs. Schultz is 6’9”, 220 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball and double plus slider (he also mixes in a cutter and a change). He sliced through the minors with absolutely no problem, putting up a 2.24 ERA with a 32.1/6.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP at mostly Double-A. Having that level of control as a 20/21 year old at that size with that kind of stuff is really mind blowing. He’s not a finished product as he’s yet to eclipse 4 IP in any outing of his career and he needs to continue to work on a good third/fourth pitch, but the combination of floor/upside is simply off the charts. Other than Roki Sasaki (who really shouldn’t be considered a prospect), and Painter now that he’s healthy, there is no other pitching prospect I would take over Schultz. – 2025 Projection: 3/3.71/1.24/82 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.05/1.01/230 in 180 IP

11) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 22.9 – Lawlar had a completely lost season in 2024 due to a broken thumb and hamstring injury, playing in just 23 games. He’s no stranger to injuries as he also underwent major shoulder surgery in 2021. Out of sight, out of mind never loses in the prospecting industry, but Lawlar is the type of talent where you should fight that urge. He already had a huge year in the upper minors in 2023, and he’s only 22, so I don’t think lost development time should be a major consideration here. Even in the 23 games he played this year he put up .900 OPS, and he then got sent to the grown man Dominican Winter League and isn’t embarrassing himself with a .670 OPS. Only Hector Rodriguez of the Reds has a higher OPS of players around Lawlar’s age (he’s outdoing Noelvi Marte, Deyvison De Los Santos, and Liover Peguero). Just the fact he’s playing and getting reps in a league where everyone doesn’t put up silly numbers like the AFL is another reason to not get too hung up on the lost season. He has the potential for a special power/speed combo (20 homers and 36 steals in 105 games in 2023), and while there is some hit tool risk, it’s not really in that extreme zone with around mid 20 strikeout rates throughout his career. He’s not a finished product, and I would expect him to start the year in the minors, but Lawlar will be up eventually in 2025, and he can make a big impact immediately. Don’t ding him too much for the injuries. 2025 Projection: 55/14/57/.241/.312/.417/21 Prime Projection: 94/24/86/.266/.339/.459/38

12) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 20.7 – Basallo didn’t quite obliterate the upper minors like he did the lower minors, slashing .278/.341/.449 with 19 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.1/8.6 K%/BB% in 127 games, but when you take into account that he was 19 years old for the vast majority of the season, it gets a lot more impressive. He was also much better at Double-A with a 134 wRC+ in 106 games than he was at Triple-A (62 wRC+ with a 31.4% K% in 21 games), so I think we can give him a pass for an adjustment period with a new team, coaches, teammates, league, home park etc … Even at Triple-A, the sweet lefty swinging, 6’4” Basallo put up a 91.1 MPH EV. He’s always put up solid contact rates in the minors, but the spike at Triple-A could also be an indicator that we shouldn’t expect the highest BA at least early in his career. He puts the ball on the ground a decent amount, but with his type of double plus power, he’s launch proof. I don’t know where he fits in defensively with Adley behind the plate, and plenty of competition at 1B (Mayo and Mountcastle), but long term there seems to be plenty of room for all of them. He’s a special power bat. – 2025 Projection: 28/9/35/.241/.300/.430/2 Prime Projection: 84/30/97/.268/.337/.505/6

13) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 22.1 – You can’t talk about Rodriguez without talking about the fact that the guy is rarely on the field. He played in only 47 games this year due to a nagging thumb injury, and he played in only 47 games in 2022 due to a meniscus tear (knee). He did get in a mostly full season in 2023 though (he missed a few weeks with an abdominal strain), and he got in a full rookie ball season in 2021, so I’m hesitant to officially slap the injury prone label on him. It’s something to take into account to break a tie, but his upside is way too high to meaningfully move him down the rankings because of it. He’s a power/speed/OBP beast with 9 homers, 9 steals, and a .459 OBP at mostly Double-A in 47 games. It was good for a 203 wRC+ at the level. He crushes the ball, he lifts it, and he’s an excellent athlete who plays CF. Injuries aren’t the only concern though, he also has strikeout problems with a 29.7% K%. Some of it is because of how patient he is, but definitely not all of it. I wouldn’t say Minnesota’s OF is wide open, but Minnesota already announced how they want to limit Buxton to like 100-110 games next year, and while they have solid options for their corner spots, they are far from locked down. If Rodriguez is healthy and producing at Triple-A, it might not be long before he gets the call to the majors, and there is potential for monster fantasy impact, especially in an OBP league. – 2025 Projection: 36/10/31/.224/.310/435/8 Prime Projection: 92/29/89/.248/.342/.490/24

14) Sebastian Walcott – TEX, SS, 19.1 – The 6’4”, uber athletic Walcott is the type of special talent where you can watch a few swings of his on Youtube as a 16 year old and immediately fall in love with him, which is exactly what happened when he was my #1 target from his international class. He’s then been that rocket ship prospect you hope for, culminating with him putting up a 172 wRC+ at Double-A as an 18 year old … granted it came in 5 games with a 29.2/4.2 K%/BB%, but I felt it would be more dramatic to leave that part out. And what he did at Double-A was more or less meaningless when he was already over 4 years younger than the average player at High-A, where he slashed .261/.342/.443 with 10 homers, 26 steals, and a 25.5/10.6 K%/BB% in 116 games. It was good for a 123 wRC+. It can be harder to evaluate players when they are so much younger than the level, but there was actually a similarly talented 18 year old at High-A all season with Walcott, Ethan Salas, and Salas put up a 75 wRC+ for comparison. The elite dynasty asset potential is clear with a potentially plus to double plus power/speed combo, but he’s not quite there yet. The hit tool is still a risk and the K rates have been high at every stop. He also hasn’t fully tapped into his raw power yet with relatively low flyball rates (although he pulls the ball over 50%). I wouldn’t quite place him in the truly elite prospect tier, but he’s in the one right under that. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/28/94/.263/.339/.484/24

15) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He didn’t standout in his pro debut, but he did enough to feel confident about him fulfilling his upside with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 126 wRC+ and 25.4/13.9 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. He ranked 2nd overall on the Top 146 2025 First Year Player Draft Rankings (this link is to the free Top 12 here on the Brick Wall). – 2025 Projection: 31/7/31/.247/.319/.420/8 Prime Projection: 91/24/79/.271/.349/.455/25

16) JJ Wetherholt – STL, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt might not have quite the ceiling of Bazzana, but even that is highly debatable, and he’s establishing that he most probably has the floor edge with a 11.9% K% at Single-A vs. Bazzana’s 25.4% K% at High-A. Different levels, but that is a pretty stark difference. He hit the ball on the ground a lot more than Bazzana, which is where some of that upside edge comes in, but he did it with a 91.9 MPH EV, so don’t cap his power upside too much. He’s two inches smaller than Bazzana at 5’10”, but he rocks that little man leg kick that I’ve always loved, and always seems to get the most out of smaller guys raw power. He slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz, likely due to missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. His 16 homer pace was also not that impressive when everyone else was hitting like 30+. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. I have Bazzana ranked over him, but I don’t think it’s some no brainer decision. JJ is right there. – 2025 Projection: 18/3/16/.259/.321/.401/5 Prime Projection: 96/19/73/.287/.353/.438/23

17) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.10 – De Paula doesn’t truly get the hype that Walker Jenkins, Sebastian Walcott and Leo De Vries gets, but he deserves every little bit of it. He might have the best hit/approach/power combo of all of them, putting up a 19.8/17.5 K%/BB% with a 130 wRC+ in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His game power still hasn’t exploded, but it ticked up from 2023 with 10 homers (2 homers in 2023), and he hits the ball so hard at 6’3” that there is little doubt about his power potential. He doesn’t sell out for power, and his groundball and pull rates are fine, so he has the potential to be one of those special monster triple-slash middle of the order mashers. He’s not a burner, but he went 27 for 30 on the bases, so the guy is obviously a good athlete who knows how to steal a base. He’s not a good defensive player, but with his potentially elite bat, I’m not scared off by that. He won’t get ranked as highly on real life lists as those aforementioned teenagers, but don’t let that deter you from thinking that Josue isn’t on that level. I was touting Josue back when he was barely heard of, and I’ll keep being high on him even as his hype gains steam. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 92/26/94/.276/.364/.482/14

18) Max Clark – DET, OF, 20.3 – Clark was the 3rd overall pick in a stacked 2023 draft class, and he played exactly as advertised in his first full season of pro ball, slashing .279/.372/.421 with 9 homers, 29 steals, and a 19.2/12.4 K%/BB% in 107 games split between Single-A (134 wRC+) and High-A (119 wRC+). He’s an absolutely electric player when you watch him with a vicious lefty swing and plus speed. He’s already one of the more exciting top of the order prospects in the lower minors, and when gains more power naturally, and starts lifting the ball a bit more (48% GB%), he can explode into a truly elite prospect. His hype has actually been relatively subdued considering how much pre draft hype he got, but make no mistake, Clark can be special. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 96/20/69/.277/.351/.443/30

19) Bubba Chandler PIT, RHP, 22.7 – Just like with hitting prospects where there seems to be two camps between preferring the hit tool first, power later profile vs. power first, hit tool later, there is a similar split with pitching prospects which is pure stuff vs. refinement/command. Chandler most certainly fell into the pure stuff first category with his upside being obvious, but he had a lot of refinement needed with a 4.75 ERA and 25.6/10.9 K%/BB% 106 IP at High-A in 2023. And that refinement smacked upper minors hitters right in the face in 2024 with him exploding. He put up a 3.08 ERA with a 30.9/8.6 K%/BB% in 119.2 IP. He was even better at Triple-A than he was at Double-A. The fastball sits 96.8 MPH and notched a 30.5% whiff% at Triple-A. The changeup is his best secondary with a 83.6 MPH EV against and 41.2% whiff%. The slider is above average with a 85 MPH EV against and 29.4% whiff%. And the lesser used curve was a good pitch too. He also most certainly looks the part at a built up and athletic 6’2”. There is zero doubt that this is an elite pitching prospect with ace upside. He’s not a completely finished product and he needs to continue to improve his command and refine his pitches, but he’s shown he’s more than capable of making those improvements in 2024. He could crack the Pirates rotation out of camp, and even if he doesn’t, it won’t be long before he gets the call. I know everyone likes Jobe more, and I obviously love Jobe too, but I prefer Chandler by a hair – 2025 Projection: 7/3.87/1.25/137 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.34/1.13/220 in 185 IP

20) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 22.8 – I love Jobe. He’s definitely an elite pitching prospect. But there are a few other truly elite pitching prospects in the minors right now (Painter, Schultz, Bubba, Kumar), and Jobe’s 25.6/12.0 K%/BB% in 91.2 IP at mostly Double-A just isn’t as impressive as theirs. It came with a 2.34 ERA, and the stuff is filthy with a 97 MPH plus fastball and 3 potentially plus secondaries in his sweeper, changeup, and cutter, so he’s right there with all of them, he just doesn’t hold down the top spot right now. Or the top 2. I have him 4th behind Painter, Schultz and Bubba, but there is no shame in that game as those guys are potentially true aces, just like Jobe is. Jobe should break camp with the team in 2025, and while I wouldn’t expect an ace season right out of the gate, I’m betting on him getting there eventually. – 2025 Projection: 8/3.83/1.27/136 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.08/207 in 180 IP

21) Kumar Rocker – TEX, RHP, 25.4 – It’s been a super bumpy ride, to say the least, but Rocker has inexplicably blasted off into elite pitching prospect status after just 48.1 IP this season. Well, it’s not exactly inexplicable, it’s explicable because he always had the nasty stuff to get here if he stayed healthy. Can we say pitching 48.1 IP is “staying” healthy? I don’t know. But what I do know is that the high octane stuff is elite enough to take on that risk. The 4-seamer sits mid to upper 90’s, and while it’s not a huge bat missing weapon without tons of vertical break, he also throws a mid to upper 90’s sinker which pounds the ball into the dirt. He can start throwing the sinker more, and he can also work on the movement profile of the 4-seamer now that he’s healthy. The real money maker is the truly elite slider. It put up a 50% whiff% in 11.2 IP in the majors and a 71.4% whiff% in 10 IP at Triple-A. He rounds out the arsenal with a lesser used changeup, and how good he can get that pitch could be a big factor in just how high the upside will end up. Digging into the nitty gritty of his pitch mix is almost besides the point though, because staying healthy is essentially the only thing he needs to do. The Mets drafted him 10th overall and didn’t sign him because they didn’t like his medicals. He then underwent shoulder surgery shortly after that, but looked so good in Independent ball when he returned from the surgery, that the Rangers selected him 3rd overall the next year. Which he followed up with Tommy John in 2023, returning for the 2nd half of 2024, where he put up a 1.96 ERA with a 39.6/3.6 K%/BB% in 36.2 IP at mostly AA and AAA. It’s about as risky of a health profile as it gets, but all pitchers are so risky, that I don’t want to discount him too much because of it. I’ll take on extra risk when the upside is a true ace. The downside could be a high leverage reliever though if he keeps getting hurt. 2025 Projection: 9/3.71/1.20/146 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.35/1.13/190 in 160 IP

22) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many pitchers are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall in a FYPD should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now, and while I already noted that Burns isn’t Skenes, the college hitting class also aren’t Langford/Crews. – 2025 Projection: 4/3.73/1.20/87 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/237 in 190 IP

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

It’s time to give the 2024 World Series Champions their due on the Brick Wall. I gush over their superior development, I marvel at their smart front office (while also wondering if they only look so smart because everyone else is so dumb), I agonize over their never ending logjam, I cry over all of their injured pitchers, and I dive into sooooooo much more. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Hitters

Michael ConfortoLAD, OF, 32.1 – If you missed out on Teoscar Hernandez’ monster bounce back season, the universe is giving you another chance this off-season to rectify that mistake. It is nearly an exact replica of the Teoscar situation with Conforto this off-season. The Dodgers signed Conforto to a 1 year, $17 million contract, and it’s almost like nobody else in baseball understands how ballpark factors work. I’m starting to think the Dodgers are so “smart” only relative to how dumb everyone else is. Conforto goes from the 28th worst park for lefty homers (SF) to the 6th best. He hit 3 homers at home vs. 17 on the road. I mean, come on. Could it get anymore obvious? Yes. Yes it can. He had a 11.8% Barrel%, a 90.2/95.4 MPH AVG/LD EV, 14.8 degree launch, a 74.1 MPH swing, and 24.2/8.6 K%/BB%. And he actually hit lefties better than righties last year, so there isn’t that much platoon risk. There was no team out there willing to give him a 2 or 3 year deal? You let the Dodgers just do it again? He’s a major win now buy target going for a song of a price (still only 280th overall NFBC ADP over the last month). 2025 Projection: 77/25/84/.250/.338/.468/2

Andy PagesLAD, OF, 24.4 – The Dodgers Giveth and The Dodgers Taketh Away. They giveth us these beautiful, ready made prospects who are perfectly developed and capable of making an immediate impact on our fantasy team … and then they taketh them right out of the lineup and stick them on their bench, or at Triple-A. We saw it with Michael Busch. We’re seeing it now with Andy Pages. And Dalton Rushing is on double deck to get the same treatment, which is why I’m maybe a hair lighter on Rushing than others. But let the record show, I was the first guy hyping Rushing based off his pro debut. You know a good pro debut doesn’t slip by me ;). And while we’re at it, here is a fun tweet from November 2019 where I name Andy Pages my favorite “No One Else Is On” player. Actually Jordan Rosenblum was the only other one on him (as mentioned in the tweet), and that was back before Jordan was the man behind the man of like every projection based system on the internet, hah. I even identify the prospect writer/analyst sleepers before they hit big! But enough back patting (life is short, let me celebrate my hits, will ya), let’s get back to Pages’ dynasty value. He set a rock solid foundation to build on in his rookie year with a 10.7% Barrel%, 88.6 MPH EV, 20.8 degree launch, 28.3 ft/sec sprint, 73.1 MPH swing, .321 xwOBA, and a 26.1% whiff% in 116 games. That is a damn good collection of skills, and not very easy to find at all. If he had a full time job, I would be all over him, but it’s hard to hype a guy up who simply doesn’t have a job. And even if injuries hit, he has competition to be next man up. The cream generally rises to the top, and players generally get their shot one way or another at some point, so for dynasty, I wouldn’t be overly concerned about it, but I don’t see how you can’t factor it in. If you want to ignore playing time, Pages would be a Top 200 dynasty asset easy for me, but with the playing time concerns, I have him more in the Top 250-300 ish range. – 2025 Projection: 48/15/44/.244/.318/.435/3 Prime Projection: 79/26/82/.252/.333/.465/7

Pitchers 

Bobby MillerLAD, RHP, 26.0 – What a fucking disaster that was, huh. Miller came into 2024 as one of the most hyped young starters in the game, and he left it injured, disgraced, and without a job coming into 2025. The life of a young pitcher ain’t easy (other than the $3,665,520 million in career earnings he has by the time he’s 26 years old, although in LA, what does that buy you? A studio apartment?). Miller got shellacked in both the majors (8.52 ERA with a 20.2/11.6 K%/BB% in 56 IP) and Triple-A (6.00 ERA with a 17.6/13.1 K%/BB% in 33 IP). The stuff was down about 2 ticks across the board. The cause of the disaster is pretty easy to identify though. In his first start of the season, his velocity was the same as 2023, and he dominated with 11 strikeouts in 6 IP. His velocity then started to decline in the next 2 terrible outings, leading to him getting pulled in his 3rd outing of the season with shoulder inflammation. He was never the same after that 1st start, and his velocity never quite got back to 2023 levels. Even with diminished stuff, he still had humongous stuff with a 97.6 MPH fastball (99 MPH in 2023), but it wasn’t only about the stuff, his control/command was way off too. The hope is that with a full off-season to get healthy, he looks much more like the guy from 2023 than 2024, and while he certainly has plenty plenty of competition for a rotation spot, you have to think that if he looks healthy in spring, he’s the favorite to win one of the open jobs. Overall, I would say I’m lukewarm on him. Even in his great rookie year, he still only had a 23.6% K%, so when you tack on the injury risk now too, there are questions about both the pure upside and the floor. On the flip side, it’s easy to bet on the monster stuff, history of production, and clear reason for the down year. I’m in between. – 2025 Projection: 8/3.93/1.31/135 in 140 IP

Walker BuehlerBOS, RHP, 30.8 – I know Buehler isn’t on the Dodgers anymore, but I find him the most interesting guy to discuss right now from their 2024 team. He was coming off his 2nd Tommy John surgery, and it sure did look like he was doubly rusted when he returned. It took him until the playoffs for him to even start feeling at least halfway like himself. And despite the terrible season, it seems like people aren’t too scared off by him. He’s going 248th overall in NFBC right now, which is pretty high, and I gotta say, I’m out on him at that price for sure. His name value still clearly carries a lot of weight, and while I do respect the track record, and the very good possibility he will be much better in his 2nd year removed from the surgery, I still don’t think he’ll be good enough to warrant his still decently high price tag. He put up a 5.38 ERA with a 18.6/8.1 K%/BB% in 75.1 IP in the regular season. He got a late start to the season due to the elbow, even though he got the surgery all the way back in August of 2022, which was a bad sign, and then he missed 2 months during the season with a hip injury. The stuff was diminished even further when he returned from that injury. He was better in the playoffs with a 3.60 ERA in 15 IP, but the stuff was still diminished, and it came with a 20.6/7.9 K%/BB%, so it’s not like he was back in prime form or anything. He throws a 7 pitch mix, and not a single one of them put up a whiff% over 30%, which isn’t good. His whiffs were already coming down before the injury, and now they are in the toilet at 19.4% overall. His stuff really isn’t all that standout anymore, and is arguably below average. He’s an aging, banged up pitcher with decent stuff and continually declining whiff rates. I’m out at his current price. – 2025 Projection: 9/4.09/1.30/137 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Michael Kopech – LAD, Closer Committee, 28.11 – We’ve been fighting it for years, but Kopech finally took his rightful place in the back of a bullpen, and he thrived with a 3.46 ERA and 31.5/12.2 K%/BB% in 67.2 IP. He was also much better in LA (1.13 ERA in 24 IP) than he was in Chicago (4.74 ERA), because of course he was. He dominates with an elite, heavily used (78.4% usage) 98.7 MPH fastball that is a bat missing machine with a 34% whiff%. The much lesser used slider and cutter aren’t nearly as impressive, but the cutter was a new pitch and was pretty good when he went to it with a .235 xwOBA. It seems he is the favorite for the lion’s share of the closer job in 2025, but the Dodgers were mixing and matching a lot even after he took over the job in the 2nd half of 2024, and his hold on the job is going to be mighty tenuous at the first sign of struggles. The well below average control, lack of a great secondary, and shaky hold on the job makes him a high risk option, but the high reward is there too. 2025 Projection: 4/3.45/1.20/80/22 saves in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Josue De Paula – LAD, OF, 19.10 – De Paula doesn’t truly get the hype that Walker Jenkins, Sebastian Walcott and Leo De Vries gets, but he deserves every little bit of it. He might have the best hit/approach/power combo of all of them, putting up a 19.8/17.5 K%/BB% with a 130 wRC+ in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His game power still hasn’t exploded, but it ticked up from 2023 with 10 homers (2 homers in 2023), and he hits the ball so hard at 6’3” that there is little doubt about his power potential. He doesn’t sell out for power, and his groundball and pull rates are fine, so he has the potential to be one of those special monster triple-slash middle of the order mashers. He’s not a burner, but he went 27 for 30 on the bases, so the guy is obviously a good athlete who knows how to steal a base. He’s not a good defensive player, but with his potentially elite bat, I’m not scared off by that. He won’t get ranked as highly on real life lists as those aforementioned teenagers, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that Josue isn’t on that level. He ranked 123rd overall on A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 92/26/94/.276/.364/.482/14

2) Emil Morales – LAD, SS, 18.6 – Morales was my 3rd ranked international prospect (behind only Leo and Paulino) and one of my top FYPD targets, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “His physicality in the box stands out immediately. He is a grown man at 6’3”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that can punish a baseball. He combines that with a mature plate approach and a good feel to hit. It certainly looks like he can be a middle of the order beast, and he has the right team to get it out of him. He’s a definite target.” … and he more than came through as one of, if not the top DSL breakout, slashing .342/.478/.691 with 14 homers, 12 steals, and a 22.4/19.9 K%/BB% in 46 games. He’s a lift and pull machine and there is potential for double plus raw power at peak, meaning the home run upside here is elite. The swing is quick and athletic, and he’s a good athlete for his size too. Most places have Jesus Made over Emil Morales an easy call in Made’s favor, but I actually think it’s pretty damn close. Made has the hit tool and speed edge, but Morales has the game power and raw power edge, and often times that power edge can overcome all other flaws. A 22.4% K% is on the high side for the DSL, so I do agree that Made’s combo of floor and upside takes it, but I’m not 100% sure I’m making the right call there. Either way, I love both, and I really, really love Morales compared to his much cheaper price. – ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 86/33/98/.250/.338/.519/9

3) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/OF, 24.1 – It seems that LA is set on keeping Rushing at catcher, which I completely understand for real life value, but for fantasy, I don’t think it’s great. Will Smith is signed until 2034, meaning Rushing looks ticketed for some kind of hybrid C/1B/OF/DH role, and with how hard it is to crack the Dodgers full time lineup (and with how little leash they give their prospects due to unlimited resources and strong organizational depth), it seems like Rushing is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time. They are not rolling out the red carpet for him at all, and I do think it hurts his fantasy value a bit. Putting defense aside for now, as a pure hitter, there is so much to like. He proved himself in the upper minors in 2024, slashing .271/.385/.512 with 26 homers, 2 steals, and a 20.5/12.7 K%/BB% in 114 games split between Double-A (149 wRC+) and Triple-A (128 wRC+). He has easy plus power with a 90.8 MPH EV, he has a launch made for both power and average, and he has a plus plate approach. The hit tool is solid, but I can see that dipping to below average against major league pitching, and like I mentioned earlier, we have seen LA be very quick with the hook if young players aren’t producing. I like the bat a ton, but defense, path to playing time, and the slight hit tool questions are enough to make me hesitant to really value him at a premium right now. – 2025 Projection: 38/12/45/.242/.310/.428/1 Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.262/.339/.465/2

4) Zyhir Hope – LAD, OF, 20.2 – And this is why “In the Dodgers We Trust” is a dynasty motto that should be burned into our retinas. They take Hope, and turn it into reality. Hope was a high risk, high reward upside pick by the Cubs in 2023 who struck out 30.2% of the time in rookie ball in his pro debut. He got traded to the Dodgers in the off-season in the Michael Busch trade, and of course the Dodgers immediately drastically improved his only weakness, bringing the strikeout rate all the way down to 22.8% at mostly Single-A. There is still hit tool risk (he hit .228 with a 24.3% K% in 23 games in the AFL), but low to mid 20’s hit tool risk is in an entirely other bucket than hovering around 30% hit tool risk. And the hit tool improved without impacting any other areas of his game, slashing .290/.419/.484 with 9 homers, 9 steals, a 22.8/15.1 K%/BB% and a 144 wRC+ in 61 games. The reasons he’s not ranked even higher than this are because the ground ball rates are on the high side (45.1%), there is still hit tool risk, and his speed/stolen base skills seem to be more in the above average than truly great area. So a guy who swings and misses a lot, hits the ball on the ground, and doesn’t run quite as much as we would like isn’t necessarily a slam dunk. I’m saying this just as much to myself as I am to you, because it’s hard not to fall head over heels for him. He hits the ball very hard, he’s a great athlete, he’s in a great organization, and he’s done nothing but produce. I do feel some caution is warranted before really putting him into that near elite to elite prospect tier, but he’s not too far off from that already. I’m thinking something like Randy Arozarena could be a good ceiling comp. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/22/81/.255/.338/.445/19

5) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 19.5 – Vargas was one of my favorite targets in his international class, and then was once again one of my favorite DSL breakout targets, so if anyone wants to crown him already, it would be me, but I can’t quite crown him yet. He had a strong year in stateside rookie ball with a 129 wRC+, but 4 homers in 38 games shows the game power isn’t quite there yet, the 22.8% K% is on the high side, and he wasn’t that successful on the bases, going 11 for 16. So that means he still needs to improve his hit tool, power, and speed. Completely reasonable for an 18 year old rookie baller to need to improve basically everywhere, and I still love the power upside at a projectable 6’4” with hard hit ability, but it’s not quite that straight rocket ship you really want. He’s a Top 100 prospect for me, but I can’t put him in that truly coveted tier quite yet. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 81/25/85/.257/.336/.465/9

6) Eduardo Quintero – LAD, OF, 19.7 – Quintero was one of, if not the top DSL breakout in 2023, and he mostly backed it up in stateside rookie ball in 2024, slashing .330/.459/.449 with 3 homers, 29 steals, and a 19.3/17.6 K%/BB% in 56 games. It was good for a 142 wRC+. He struggled when he got the call to Single-A with a 77 wRC+ in 27 games, but it came with a 19.6/16.1 K%/BB%, so it’s not like he was completely overmatched or anything. You have to give these kids time to adjust to a new level. He’s an excellent athlete at 6’0”, 175 pounds with plus speed, hard hit ability, a good feel to hit, and a plus plate approach. The launch is geared for both power and average, and he has a good glove in the OF. This guy basically does everything well on a baseball field, and while there is still plenty of development left to go (being more aggressive at the dish, getting stronger, unlocking more game power, proving it at higher levels), you have to trust the Dodgers to get the most out of him. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 86/19/74/.273/.341/.430/26

7) Hye-seong Kim – LAD, 2B, 26.2 – It’s funny that I just had Kim and Lux ranked back to back in the 2B rankings, with Kim one spot ahead, and it looks like the Dodgers agreed with me. They preferred Kim to Lux at 2B too after they signed Kim and shipped out Lux to Cincinnati. Kim signed a 3 year, $12.5 million contract with the Dodgers, but he got better offers elsewhere. Smart move going to the best situation rather than taking the best offer. Kim’s contact/speed/defense profile is one that plenty of starting 2B have, and I think it will play in the majors. He slashed .326/.383/.458 with 11 homers, 30 steals, and a 10.9/8.3 K%/BB% in 127 games in the KBO. We can look at Jung Hoo Lee as a comp who just came over last year. Both are lefties and the same age with similar profiles. Lee is 2 inches taller, had much better contact rates, much better walk rates, and much better power numbers. He didn’t run nearly as much though, and steals are a huge part of fantasy, so that is a nice edge to Kim. Kim isn’t as good as Lee overall, but Lee’s skills more or less transferred to the bigs, so I don’t see why Kim’s couldn’t too. Just check out this homer he hit in 2023. I would say that swing could play. It seems like he has a full time job at the moment (although nothing is certain until the off-season is over), and as I wrote in the 2B rankings, if he ended up with a full time job, I’m apt to go after him. Even better that he ended up with one on the Dodgers. Kim ranked 16th overall in the Top 146 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon).2025 Projection: 71/9/53/.260/.307/.372/22 Prime Projection: 77/10/61/.273/.321/.398/26

8) Alex Freeland – LAD, SS, 23.7 – I’m pretty certain I’m the only one crazy enough to have called Freeland a target in his FYPD class after getting drafted 105th overall, but you know how strongly I feel about good pro debuts (and bad pro debuts), even in small samples, and Freeland had himself a hell of a pro debut with a 152 wRC+, 3 homers, and 2 steals in 8 games at Single-A. That was enough for me to target him late, and look at him just two years later, getting major mainstream hype. Please ignore the fact that he actually didn’t crack my 2024 Top 1,000 after his lukewarm year in 2023 😉 … but my point still stands, pro debuts mean a lot, and certainly when you are looking for late round sleepers. And now that he is getting rained down with hype, I hate to be that guy, but I think he might be getting overrated now. A lot of his damage and hype came from dominating High-A in 23 games, but he was 22 year old and repeating the level. He was good at Double-A too with a 127 wRC+, but a .245/.370/.422 triple-slash isn’t exactly blowing the doors off, and he struggled at Triple-A, slashing .243/.335/.396 with a 26.8% K% and 85 wRC+ in 39 games. The bottom line is that he hit under .250 at the age appropriate levels of the upper minors with a pretty high strikeout rate. He has very real hit tool risk. But enough raining on his parade. He’s definitely exciting with an above average to plus power/speed combo, jacking out 18 homers with 31 steals in 136 games. He hits the ball hard and he’s fast, so those numbers aren’t a mirage. He also has a good infield glove, so his glove should only help him get in the lineup. Whenever a former deep sleeper blows up, they will always hold a fond place in my heart, but perceived value shifts, and my feelings on a player has to shift with perceived value. Right now, I think he might be a tad overrated even though I still like him. – 2025 Projection: 17/3/19/.229/.293/.378/5 Prime Projection: 77/19/71/.248/.324/.421/21

9) Kellon Lindsey – LAD, SS, 19.6 – Selected 23rd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, elite speed is the the 6’0”, 175 pound Lindsey’s calling card, and it comes with a good glove at SS and a good feel to hit. There isn’t big power in here, and while that should tick up over time, he doesn’t really project for big power down the line either. The hit tool is solid, but it’s not really in that near elite range and there is some risk with how it will perform against more advanced pitching. He’s an excellent athlete who played QB and DB in high school, so there is plenty of upside in here, but going after a speed first guy without huge power and with a good but not great hit tool I think warrants some caution. I know getting drafted by LA and getting Trea Turner comps is exciting, but I’m not sure I’m reaching for Lindsey quite yet. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/15/66/.270/.328/.420/31

10) Jackson Ferris – LAD, LHP, 21.3 – I definitely like Ferris a lot, and was quick to jump on him during the season last year, but I don’t love the K/BB taking such a huge step back when he got to Double-A. He put a 3.39 ERA with a 29.2/10.5 K%/BB% in 98.1 IP at High-A and a 2.54 ERA with a 21.3/11.5 K%/BB% in 28.1 IP at Double-A. The stuff is good, but it’s not really standout with a low to mid 90’s fastball, two good breaking balls, and a lesser used, but good change. He gets a lot of “looks the part” extra hype as a 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with an athletic delivery, but as is, it might be a back end profile. The reason why I was so quick to jump on him, and why he gets lots of love, is because we try to project who a player could be in the prospect world, and at his young age with his projectable frame, you can definitely dream on a mid rotation starter or better with an extra tick on the fastball and continued refinement. Again, I like him a lot, but I would be hesitant to put too high a value on him right now. I’m staying a little cautious here. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.27/162 in 165 IP

Just Missed

11) River Ryan – LAD, RHP, 26.8

12) Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 24.9

13) Hyun-Seok Jang – LAD, RHP, 21.0 – I just couldn’t resist writing up Jang even though he didn’t crack the Top 10, because if there is one pitcher in the minors who can jump into near elite pitching prospect range extremely quickly into 2025, it’s Jang. If he has literally a few good outings to start the season, maybe even just one good outing, the hype is going to hit really damn hard. He was one of my top FYPD pitching targets last off-season, and while his control/command was too raw to say he was a major hit, he more than showed the upside that I just can’t resist. He put up a ridiculous 41% K% in 36.2 IP split between rookie ball (41.5%) and Single-A (39.6%). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with an athletic righty delivery that fires a mid 90’s fastball that can reach the upper 90’s, to go along with a 2 potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a developing changeup that flashes plus. He was improving as the year progressed with a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP at Single-A (6.14 ERA on the season), which is a good sign, but the 16.3% BB% remained high all year, and that is just way too high. He has the type of stuff that can thrive with below average control, but he has work to do to get to even that. The way I see it, the raw control gives you one more off-season to get in for cheap or possibly nothing before he really starts to pop. Last year was his first year in a new country and his first year in pro ball. There was a lot of adjusting to do, and I think he’s going to look a lot more comfortable in year 2. He’s a major target. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 11/3.69/1.28/180 in 160 IP

14) Chase Harlan – LAD, 3B, 18.9 – Most of the high school hitting class, except for Morlando and Fountain, are speed over power prospects at the moment, so if you are looking for an upside power bat later in the draft, Harlan is your guy. Selected 98th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Harlan is a 6’3”, 205 pound bruiser putting up some of the best exit velocities in the class. He’s also young for the class and will still be 18 years old for half of the 2025 season. If you squint hard enough, you see an Austin Riley clone down the line. And equally as exciting as his profile is that he landed with the Dodgers. If anyone can figure out the best batting stance for him, and get his hit tool to a good enough level for the power to shine, it’s the Dodgers. I really like him and he’s definitely underrated. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.243/.326/.465/5

15) Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 21.10 – Selected 87th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Sirota was a potential first round pick coming into the season, but instead of having the big junior year breakout, he took a step back. He went from hitting 18 homers his sophomore year to just 7 homers in 51 games in the Colonial Athletic Conference his junior year. The hit tool isn’t good enough to see the power take a step back with a 18.8% K%, and considering he’s not from a major conference, the profile needed to be pretty bulletproof. But having said that, it could create a buying opportunity for our purposes. He’s 6’3”, 188 pounds with plus speed and good raw power. The swing and stance is geared more for average than power, but he’s young for the class, and hopefully pro instruction can get the most out of his raw power (I wrote this blurb just minutes before he got traded to the Dodgers, and now you have to feel even better about the Dodgers unlocking his power). He also has an excellent plate approach with a 23% BB%. He’s most likely a 4th outfielder, but joining the Dodgers gives him the best chance possible of beating that projection. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 69/16/57/.246/.319/.418/19

16) Kendall George LAD, OF, 20.5

17) Ben Casparius – LAD, RHP, 26.2

18) Teilon Serrano – LAD, OF, 16.10 – I love me a Dodgers prospect, and I also love me a prospect with such a visually fast and explosive swing, so that means I like Serrano a lot in this FYPD class. He doesn’t have big present power, but at 6’0”, 185 pounds, and with that swing, I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his eventual raw power. And he’s a burner with plus to double speed. I think he could have some of the best speed first upside in this class. He’s late round international target for me and he ranked 93rd overall on the Top 146 2025 FYPD Ranks (Patreon). ETA: 2030 Prime Projection: 83/16/64/.259/.328/.413/30

19) Brendan Tunink – LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 250th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Tunink is a high upside high schooler drafted by the Dodgers. That is an excellent foundation right there. He’s a strong 6’0”, 185 pounds with an absolutely vicious lefty swing that is looking to do damage, and it’s a short and controlled swing too. He combines that with plus speed and a good feel to hit. This is a bet on the Dodgers just as much as it’s a bet on Tunink. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/17/68/.252/.321/.421/17

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Hye-seong Kim blurb, it’s extremely easy to get tunnel vision with pure player evaluation when making decisions in dynasty, but supply and demand should often be the driver of your decisions instead. How I rank players in my FYPD rankings, is the same order you will find them on my overall Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, which is the same order you will find them on my Top 1,000+ Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I try my darndest to give truly actionable rankings/content that fully incorporates how dynasty leagues operate in practice, rather than just in theory, and I know that when that point comes in a dynasty draft (usually around Top 400-ish area) where the supply of MLB starters dries up, especially MLB starters with some upside, it’s a feeding frenzy to grab them before they are gone. That is why Kim slots in high on my FYPD Rankings. Players like Kim who have a path to a full time job, and have some upside, are much more valuable to grab than one of the many, many, many high upside lotto ticket prospects you can grab later on. It’s just simple supply and demand. Kim doesn’t have the upside of many of the bats I have ranked after him on the FYPD rankings, and he definitely may come in and be underwhelming, but I still believe he’s worth taking the shot on at that point in the rankings. And I do personally like his profile too as a hit/speed/defense play. You have to take into account the environment of your league, and what is a bucket of player where the supply is limited (guys with jobs) vs. what is the bucket of player where there is plenty of supply (high upside prospects). This will change league to league though. In shallow leagues, low end MLB starters might be very easy to pick up all season, whereas high upside prospects are only available in a FYPD and they can’t be picked up during the season. That will change the equation for sure. Even in a shallow league though, I still think Kim has the skillset to make an impact. Regardless, you get the point. Make sure you understand what is hard to acquire in your league, and what is easy, and then slant your decision making process to best take advantage of that.

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1) Roki Sasaki FRA, RHP, 23.5 – Sasaki and his people pulled whatever back room deals that needed to be pulled and got him coming stateside this season, which is insanely exciting, because there is little doubt that he will be a true ace right from the get go, and possibly the best pitcher in all the land. He’s better than Yamamoto, and you saw Yamamoto’s seamless transition, other than the shoulder injury. Sasaki’s fastball sits in the upper 90’s and regularly hits over 100 MPH. The splitter is truly elite and the slider is plus. He has prototypical size at a projectable and athletic 6’2”, 187 pounds, and he has plus control/command of his stuff. He’s been so insanely dominant in Japan that he has basically already hit legend status with so many crazy feats, and he’s only 23 years old. He put up a 2.35 ERA with a 28.7/7.1 K%/BB% in 111 IP this year. He was even better in 2023 with a 1.78 ERA and 39.1%/4.9% K%/BB% in 91 IP. As you can see, the biggest and only red flag is injuries, as he has a career high of 129.1 IP. He battled an oblique injury in 2023 and right arm discomfort in 2024. The right arm discomfort is particularly concerning because his stuff was actually down a tick or two this year. It was still beastly, but would any of us be surprised if Tommy John/internal brace surgery was right around the corner? You can’t be too scared off by that, because even if he needs it, he should still return as an ace. He’s so easily the top pick in First Year Player Drafts, and he has a very real argument to be the top dynasty pitcher in the game. – 2025 Projection: 12/3.06/1.04/175 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.72/0.92/240 in 185 IP

2) Travis Bazzana – CLE, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Bazzana looks like a tightly wound ball of kinetic energy that is just ready to explode in the box (I think ball of “Potential” energy is actually the correct scientific term, but I felt like “Kinetic” just hit harder 🙂 … There is toe tapping and bat wiggling before he absolutely uncoils on the baseball, jacking 28 homers in 60 games in the Pac 12 this year, and also smoking 6 homers with a 1.037 OPS in the wood bat cape cod league in 2023. He’s “only” 6 feet tall, but there is easy plus power in here at the least. He combines the plus power with a near elite plate approach/hit tool (12.5%/25.7% K%/BB%), and speed (16 steals). He didn’t standout in his pro debut, but he did enough to feel confident about him fulfilling his upside with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 126 wRC+ and 25.4/13.9 K%/BB% in 27 games at High-A. He’s the total offensive package, and there is a reason he got taken #1 overall by a very smart franchise despite limited defensive value. The only thing that can stop him seems to be his parents. His parents almost ended his career before it started when celebrating. His dad tried to rip his arm out of his socket, and then his mom put him in some kind of neck hold into a tripping maneuver. Travis almost looked like he was about to square up with his mom for a second there. I guess they do things differently Down Under in Australia. – 2025 Projection: 31/7/31/.247/.319/.420/8 Prime Projection: 91/24/79/.271/.349/.455/25

3) JJ Wetherholt STL, 2B, 22.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Wetherholt might not have quite the ceiling of Bazzana, but even that is highly debatable, and he’s establishing that he most probably has the floor edge with a 11.9% K% at Single-A vs. Bazzana’s 25.4% K% at High-A. Different levels, but that is a pretty stark difference. He hit the ball on the ground a lot more than Bazzana, which is where some of that upside edge comes in, but he did it with a 91.9 MPH EV, so don’t cap his power upside too much. He’s two inches smaller than Bazzana at 5’10”, but he rocks that little man leg kick that I’ve always loved, and always seems to get the most out of smaller guys raw power. He slid in the draft a bit after getting a lot of #1 overall buzz, likely due to missing about half of the season with a hamstring injury and still not being fully healthy when he returned. It was his 2nd major hamstring injury within the year. His 16 homer pace was also not that impressive when everyone else was hitting like 30+. What he does better than maybe anyone else in the draft though is hit. He put up a 10.4%/18.3% K%/BB% in 2024 and had a 8.2% K% in 2023. He’s a complete hitter who uses the entire field with a quick and simple lefty swing. Tack on plus speed (57 steals in 145 career games), and you have a damn enticing fantasy player even if his power upside doesn’t quite match some of the other bats in the class. I have Bazzana ranked over him, but I don’t think it’s some no brainer decision. JJ is right there. – 2025 Projection: 18/3/16/.259/.321/.401/5 Prime Projection: 96/19/73/.287/.353/.438/23

4) Chase Burns – CIN, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, dynasty managers owe a huge debt of gratitude to Cincinnati for going Burns over Condon. It would have made me legitimately sad to see Burns going to the Rockies. I know Cincinnati is no cake walk for pitchers themselves, but they just have a small ballpark, they don’t have different air. And we’ve seen plenty of pitchers have excellent seasons in Cincy (Castillo, Gray, Greene, Lodolo), so I wouldn’t let this landing spot move you off Burns at all. He has legit ace upside at a strong 6’3”, 210 pounds with a double plus fastball that sits in the upper 90’s and a double plus slider that put up elite whiff rates. It led to a 2.70 ERA with a ridiculous 48.8%/7.7% K%/BB% in 100 IP in the ACC. He’s inevitably going to get compared to Skenes, and Skenes put up a 1.69 ERA with a 45.2%/4.3% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP in the SEC. Skenes was in the tougher conference (although Burns pitched well in the SEC in 2022-23 before transferring to the ACC) with a better ERA, better walk rate and more IP. Burns isn’t as good as Skenes, but not many pitchers are better than Skenes, so that isn’t much of a knock. Burns also throws a curve and changeup to give him a legit starters pitch mix, and how well he can develop those pitches could dictate whether he becomes a true ace or a high K, #2/3 type. If your dynasty team is stacked with hitting, I don’t think taking Burns #1 overall should be ruled out. The teams that took Skenes over Langford and Crews in 2024 aren’t complaining too much right now, and while I already noted that Burns isn’t Skenes, the college hitting class also aren’t Langford/Crews. – 2025 Projection: 4/3.73/1.20/87 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.08/237 in 190 IP

5) Christian Moore – LAA, 2B, 22.5 – Selected 8th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Angels don’t fuck around when it comes to promoting advanced college hitters to the majors, so you know Moore is going to be a contributor on your fantasy team real quick, possibly as soon as Opening Day. Shit, he almost made his MLB debut in 2024 with his absolute destruction of pro ball, slashing .322/.378/.533 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 29.6/8.2 K%/BB% in 23 games at Double-A. A knee injury (meniscus) is likely the only thing that stopped that from happening, but he returned to Double-A before the season ended and went 3 for 4 with a double and 4 RBI, so I wouldn’t be worried about the knee. I fell in love with his personality during his Draft Day interview. It was the perfect mix of confident, cocky, thoughtful, playful and mature. That just seems like the type of infectious attitude I want on my team. He wasn’t kidding when he said he had Champion in his blood. And of course, he was an absolute beast in the SEC, smashing 34 homers with a 1.248 OPS and 14.5%/11.3% K%/BB% in 72 games. He has a very strong righty swing at 6’1”, 210 pounds, producing at least plus power with average speed on the bases. In his freshman year in 2022, he put up a 1.062 OPS with 10 homers in 149 PA to give you an idea of the type of natural talent this is. As you saw with his K rate at Double-A, there are definitely some hit tool issues, which I’m not ignoring, but I’m also not letting it scare me off. I was high on Moore before his pro debut, and now I am over the moon for him. 2025 Projection: 70/23/77/.242/.310/.437/8 Prime Projection: 83/28/91/.260/.331/.472/11

6) Nick Kurtz OAK, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 4th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Kurtz had one of the best pro debuts in his draft class with 4 homers in 7 games at Single-A, and a 129 wRC+ with a 20.0/13.3 K%/BB% in 5 games at Double-A. It was a just a continuation of the 3 years of dominance in the ACC. He’s a large man at 6’5”, 240 pounds in the mold of a Jim Thome, country strong type. But he’s not just brute strength, he has electric bat speed that led to 61 homers in 164 career games in college. He combines the at least plus power with an extremely patient plate approach and good feel to hit (16.2%/30% K%/BB%). He also has some sneaky athleticism, evidenced by a perfect 11 for 11 on the bases in his college career. The ceiling here is your classic complete hitting first baseman with power and patience. And it looks like the Athletics intend to fly him through the minors, so it might not even be crazy to see him break camp with the team, even if I wouldn’t bet on that. The biggest downside is that his season ended on August 24th with a hamstring injury, and injuries have plagued him throughout his career, so I think it’s something that has to be taken into account unfortunately. He returned in time to decimate the AFL with a 1.058 OPS in 13 games, so I don’t think you should overrate the injury risk too much, but it’s worth noting. – 2025 Projection: 48/16/57/.247/.323/.439/4 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.266/.351/.488/6

7) Konnor Griffin – PIT, OF, 18.11 – Selected 9th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Griffin has the highest pure upside in this entire class, and that includes Roki Sasaki. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds and has the look of a #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft as a QB. He has the neck of a football player too. He also has the athleticism of a football player with legit potential to put up 30/30 seasons with a plus to double plus power/speed combo. He’s shown a good feel to hit with a good plate approach in his high school career, but like I mentioned back in February 2024 when I did a very early Top 10 FYPD Ranking, the swing isn’t necessarily the smoothest thing in the world, although it actually looks much better to me now than it did then. Plus you can tack on electric bat speed and bank on continued refinement considering how young he is for the class. Pitt obviously wasn’t worried enough about the hit tool to let him slip by them at #9, and for fantasy especially, I wouldn’t let it scare you off him either. This is legit elite dynasty asset potential, and there is chance you are kicking yourself 1-2 years from now for taking a good but not great college bat, over this potentially elite dynasty player. – ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 89/25/92/.261/.337/.470/33

8) Cam Smith – HOU, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 224 pound Smith generates a tremendous amount of power with very little movement in his swing. It is quick, powerful and short to the ball. It is straight up one of the quietest swings from one of the biggest men I’ve ever seen. The swing is geared more for a line drive, all fields approach rather than pull and lift, which is why he didn’t put up the gaudy homer totals as some of his other college hitting brethren with only 16 homers in 66 games in the ACC. But he has the raw power to make that profile work, and the upside is that it can come with a high BA. We saw what this profile can look like at it’s best in his dominant pro debut, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 17.9/11.2 K%/BB% in 32 games split between Single-A, High-A, and Double-A. He put up a 122 wRC+ in 5 games at Double-A, so the profile was transferring to the upper minors, and he clearly had no problems ripping dingers to all fields with the wood bat. He very well might have the top hit/power combo in the FYPD class, and it’s why Houston targeted him in the Kyle Tucker trade. The trade doesn’t really change his value at all, but he will definitely get a nice ballpark upgrade even if he doesn’t have the type of profile that necessarily needs it. – 2025 Projection: 12/4/17/.247/.308/.412/1 Prime Projection: 84/24/89/.273/.340/.466/4

9) Hagen Smith – CHW, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the White Sox know a thing or two about developing vicious lefty starters with funky deliveries and some control risk. They’ve done just fine with Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Noah Schultz. The 6’3”, 225 pound Hagen Smith is next on that list with a three quarter arm slot delivery that he uses to fire a double plus mid 90’s fastball and double plus slider. Both pitches are whiff machines, leading to a 2.04 ERA with a 48.6%/10.3% K%/BB% in 84 IP in the SEC. He also mixes in a splitter, and while he doesn’t throw it that often, it’s a good pitch when he goes to it. The walk rate is on the high side, and it was worse in his freshman and sophomore seasons with a 13.4% BB% in 148.3 IP. Improving his control/command and turning his splitter into a higher usage 3rd weapon can turn Smith into a true ace. If he can’t improve in those areas, a high K, mid-rotation starter is within the range of outcomes (and I guess the bullpen is too, but you don’t take a guy 6th overall to use him in the bullpen long term). I’m surprised that Smith was allowed to debut in 2024, but Chicago marches to the beat of their own drum. He more than held his own at High-A with a 3.52 ERA and 21.2/6.1 K%/BB% in 7.2 IP over 3 outings. The filthy stuff was as advertised, and while the K numbers weren’t off the charts, it’s nice to see that clean walk rate. Add a star for being young for the class, but take a star away for already undergoing Tommy John when he was 16 years old. – 2025 Projection: 2/3.91/1.28/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.48/1.17/203 in 175 IP

10) Charlie Condon – COL, 3B/1B/OF, 21.11 – Let me just start by saying that I’ve been valuing pro debuts extremely high from the second I started writing back in 2015/16, and it has served me extremely well in both directions (moving guys both up and down). It was back before any other outlet would even consider changing their evaluation or ranking of a player based on their pro debut. When asked, they would just hand wave it away and say something like “small sample,” even though the sample was often actually bigger in pro ball than it was in their Junior year of college (back when the draft was in early June). It made no sense to me why the pro debut with wood bats and more advanced pitching wouldn’t be weighed more heavily. And now, you see basically every outlet change their ranking at least somewhat based on the pro debuts, which is the right move. That brings us to Charlie Condon, who just had the type of pro debut you have nightmares over. Despite all of his pre draft hype, he did have some hit tool questions at 6’6” with relatively high K rates throughout his college career. And the hit tool immediately didn’t transfer to pro ball with a .180 BA and 31.2/3.7 K%/BB% in 25 games at High-A. That isn’t just bad, that is atrocious. Completely lost. It’s not great that the only question he had coming out of the draft was immediately answered, and not in a good way. This was a 21 year old in the lower minors. You need a high FYPD college bat to dominate in the majors by like 23 years old, let alone High-A. Jacob Berry and Chase Davis were the last two hyped college bats to have poor pro debuts, and neither of their values are anywhere close to where you wanted them to be. Condon is a better prospect than both of those guys, and I’m not dropping him as far down as those guys at all, but I do believe he does deserve a real drop. This draft class was already really tightly packed at the top with a lot of really, really good college talent, but no one true standout. So based on Condon’s poor debut, I don’t see how it doesn’t make complete sense to drop him under those guys. He has a clear carrying tool in his power, and of course I do factor in that the pro debut was at the end of a long season, draft process, new team, new coach, new everything etc …, so he’s still a Top 10 FYPD pick for me. I still like him as a power bat who will get to hit in Coors (but also gets their developmental team, and it looks like he still needs development). I just wouldn’t be able to pull the trigger on him until the other similarly talented college players with better debuts were off the board first. I feel like that’s reasonable. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/30/88/.241/.322/.472/8

11) Braden MontgomeryCHW, OF, 22.0 – Selected 12th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, there was a lot of talk about Montgomery dropping his righty swing to hit exclusively lefty. That doesn’t really seem like what you want to hear from a highly drafted college bat, but the lefty swing is so smooth and powerful I get why it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal overall. He also had a 20% K% which is substantially higher than the college bats drafted before him. Maybe that is partly why he slipped a bit to 12th overall, and also why Boston was willing to include him in the Crochet trade. The broken ankle which he suffered pre draft on June 8th was also likely a major reason for the drop. So he certainly has some risk with hit tool, platooning and injury, but he also has very major power upside. He’s 6’2”, 220 pounds and he smashed 27 homers with a 1.187 OPS in 61 games in the SEC. He’s been smashing homers his entire career with 62 homers in 187 games split between the Pac 12 and SEC. He absolutely destroys the baseball with huge exit velocities. That gives him a no doubt carrying tool that will make him a fantasy force. As for the trade, it really doesn’t change his value at all. The path to playing time is clearer, but it’s an organization downgrade and a future lineup downgrade. It’s also a ballpark downgrade. If anything, it makes me like him slightly less, but again, this really shouldn’t change his value too much. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/28/89/.251/.333/.475/6

12) Jac Caglionone – KCR, 1B, 22.2 – Selected 6th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, Caglionone’s pro debut was on the disappointing side, and with how tightly packed the talent is in the FYPD Top 12, he’s sliding down my rankings to the bottom of that Top 12 tier. He had hit tool and chase questions coming out of the draft, and hitting .241 with a 20.6/5.6 K%/BB% in his 29 game pro debut at High-A did nothing to quell those issues. He put up a lowly 94 wRC+ with 2 homers, which isn’t what you want to see from an elite college bat in the lower minors. He then went to the AFL where the pitching was so bad this year, they are actively trying to figure out how to improve the pitchers in that league in future years, and he still couldn’t dominate with a .749 OPS in 21 games. Tons of hitters were putting up just wacky numbers in that extreme offensive environment. He did jack 5 homers, and there is zero doubt about his massive power, so there is no doubt he has a carrying tool even if the hit tool and plate approach take time to adjust to pro pitching. He’s built like an NFL tight end at 6’5”, 250 pounds, and he obliterated the SEC with 75 homers in 165 career games. It took him some time to improve his plate skills in college as well, making big improvements his junior year with a 8.2/18.4 K%/BB% (18.2/5.3 K%/BB% his sophomore year), so the hope is that he can do the same in the majors. KC’s ballpark is death to lefty homers, and while I am factoring that in a bit, he has the type of power to not get too hung up on it. Even though the pro debut does have him sliding down the rankings a bit, it’s almost more because of how much comparable college talent there is at the top of this class to begin with. He’s still a very exciting power bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/31/92/.248/.329/.479/6

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)

Top 154 2025 Shortstop Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

It’s fitting that the rankings of the Golden Children of the baseball world, shortstops, fall on the same week as the hyped up New Year’s Eve. Both get juiced up in the rankings, and while they can often end up underwhelming, when they hit, they hit big. I went 154 deep on the the Patreon with the Top 5 free on the Brick Wall down below. Top 78 Catchers, Top 83 1B, Top 98 2B, and Top 109 3B are already completed. Here is the Top 154 2025 Shortstop Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon):

1) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.10 – In leagues where Ohtani can’t be used as both a pitcher and hitter (weekly leagues or leagues where Ohtani is split into two players), age does start to become more of a factor, so in those leagues, Bobby Witt Jr. would be crowned the #1 dynasty player in the game. Coming off his rookie season in 2022, he improved in almost every facet of the game in 2023, and then he once again improved in every facet of the game in 2024. Someone tell Bobby that development isn’t linear, because his development is a straight line to the moon. He put up career bests in Barrel% (14.3%), EV (92.7 MPH), Max EV (116.9 MPH), xwOBA (.413), K% (15%), and BB% (8.0%). His 74.7 MPH bat speed is elite, which makes his contact rates even more impressive, because that bat speed/contact combo is in even more rarified air. He’s also the fastest man in baseball by a good margin with a 30.5 ft/sec sprint. It all resulted in a .332/32/31 season, and seeing how he’s only gotten better every single season, there might just be another level in here. 40/40 here we come. – 2025 Projection: 118/35/104/.315/.379/.555/39

2) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS, 23.3 – Risk? What risk? I laugh in the face risk, ranking Elly 9th overall last off-season, and finishing his blurb by writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” That not so risky risk paid off in a huge way in 2024 with Elly going .259/25/67. Those 67 steals led the league by a large margin, lapping most of the field. He’s one of, if not the most electric player in the game at 6’5” with an elite 75.2 MPH swing (his lefty swing is super elite, while his righty swing is more near elite) and 30.0/sec sprint speed. He crushes the ball with a 91.8 MPH EV, he brought his launch up as expected to a respectable 9.7 degrees, he brought his chase down to an above average 26.9%, and he kept his strikeout rate in a reasonable enough range (31.3%) to let the insane talent shine. And this is just the beginning. If he can continue to improve his plate skills and raise that launch, which I wouldn’t see why that isn’t the expectation at just 23 years old, I shutter to think about what kind of numbers are possible. – 2025 Projection: 110/31/89/.267/.348/.515/59

3) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS, 23.9 – Henderson massively improved on basically the only three weaknesses of his game in 2024, which easily propelled him into a Top 5 dynasty asset. He put up a .829 OPS vs. lefties in 2024 after a notching a lowly .618 OPS in 2023. I never let Gunnar’s struggles vs. lefties hold his ranking back, even when it was a major point of contention in is his prospect years, and I think it’s something to keep in mind when evaluating lefty hitting prospects. You often don’t get that many reps against lefties, so you often see that skill develop over time when they get into the majors. Don’t let it scare you off. He also improved his base stealing, nabbing 21 bags in 25 attempts after stealing only 10 bags in 2023. Granted this one was more a fantasy skill than a real life skill, as he was an excellent base runner overall in both years. And finally, he improved his hit tool, putting up a 22.1% K%, 24.4% whiff%, and a .281 BA. He combined all of those improvements while continuing to smash the ball with a 92.8 MPH EV, leading to 37 homers. He still doesn’t steal quite enough to pop him over Witt or Elly, but he is right there with those guys, and if steals are devalued in your league, like in points or 6+ hitting category leagues, Gunnar would slid in ahead of Elly. – 2025 Projection: 116/35/99/.280/.370/.535/18

4) Francisco Lindor – NYM, SS, 31.4 – Lindor gutted it out with a back injury to close out the season and into playoffs, requiring extra injections to get back on the field, and while I respect the hell out of his heart (130 wRC+ in 13 playoff games), I do hope it’s something that doesn’t come back to bite him early in 2025. Sometimes things like that can throw off your normal off-season routine, creating an uphill battle all season. While it’s something to think about, it would be much too cautious to plan on Lindor being anything other than a stud next year. After going 31/31 in 2023, he followed that up in 2024 with a 33/29 season. His 137 wRC+, 13.6% Barrel% and .382 xwOBA were all career highs. As long as the back isn’t an issue, I don’t see why he wouldn’t go 30/30 again. If the back is an issue, there is a chance he doesn’t run quite as much. 2025 Projection: 103/31/94/.268/.340/.485/26

5) Oneil CruzPIT, OF/SS, 26.6 – Saying that Cruz’ 95.5 MPH EV is elite would be an understatement. It is in all time great territory, trailing only Judge and Ohtani, two all time greats. His 78.6 MPH swing speed is also super elite, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton’s 81.2 MPH swing (Stanton laps the field, with nobody even close to him). And he also has double plus speed with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. This is an extremely special talent. Yes, there is hit tool risk with a 34.1% whiff% and 30.1% K%, but I really don’t think it’s as risky at it seems. He hit .259 this year with a .266 xBA, and in 1,009 career PA he has a .250 BA. He can clearly thrive with the elevated swing and miss. He put together a strong year in 2024 with 21 homers and 22 steals in 23 attempts in 146 games, but he is merely just scratching the surface of what he’s capable of. He was a major target coming into the year, and he turned into an elite dynasty asset. Make sure you treat him like one this off-season. He ranked 24th overall on the Top 25 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings which is free on the Brick Wall (full Top 135 Sneak Peek is on Patreon).  – 2025 Projection: 84/27/92/.255/.328/.474/26

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
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Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon (free ones listed in parenthesis)

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)