The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings will be finished in late January/early February. I’m going to drop some sneak peeks leading up to that, starting with the top 20:
1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 22.3 – Combination of age and stolen base upside is what separates Acuna from the pack, but a 26.3% K% presents a risk that other candidates for the top spot don’t have. In anything other than a 5×5 league (points, OBP), I would look elsewhere with the top pick. 2020 Projection: 111/37/98/.285/.367/.524/31
2) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 28.8 – Turning 29 during the 2020 season, career low 13 steal attempts, and a much younger crop of generational talent establishing themselves in 2019 are why Trout is no longer the obvious #1 pick in dynasty. I still have him #1 in redrafts. 2020 Projection: 113/46/107/.299/.442/.631/15
3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 21.5 – Flipped hitting profile from rookie season, upping FB% to 37.2% (from 28.8%) and lowering GB% to 41.6% (from 53.7%). 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is 2.1 MPH higher than Trout and 1.4 MPH higher than Acuna. Soto is my #1 pick in non 5×5 dynasty leagues. 2020 Projection: 108/36/105/.296/.404/.553/10
4) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF, 24.9 – Career bests in BB% (14.4%), K% (16.4%), average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), and launch angle (17.6 degree launch). On the flip side, OPS declined every month of the season (1.397, .998, .967, .952, .918, .891, playoffs-.549). 2020 Projection: 110/43/110/.288/.383/.598/14
5) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 28.4 – Here is what I wrote about Yelich in my 2019 Top 1,000: “… posted the lowest GB% of his career by a good margin in August and September (46% and 44%, respectively). If he can carry those gains over a full season, the power breakout may not be a complete outlier.” That is exactly what happened, with Yelich posting a 43.2% GB% and hitting a career high 44 homers. The fractured knee cap that ended his season supposedly won’t have any long term effects. 2020 Projection: 111/37/104/.309/.410/.605/20
6) Mookie Betts BOS, OF, 27.6 – As a Yankees fan, I pray to the baseball gods every night that Boston trades Mookie Betts for “can’t miss” pitching prospects. 2020 Projection: 119/33/86/.310/.402/.552/22
7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 26.9 – Power took a big step forward, raising average exit velocity 2.5 MPH to 90.3 MPH. Remains a speedster with the 2nd fastest sprint speed in baseball, behind only Tim Locastro (Buxton is a close 3rd). 2020 Projection: 104/24/77/.293/.350/.488/41
8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 21.3 – With a 29.6% K% and a 6.9 degree launch angle, you can look at Tatis’ 2019 in one of two ways. Either you think he got lucky and there is serious regression coming, or you are scared at the thought of what his stats might look like when he inevitably improves on those underlying numbers. I’m in camp #2. 2020 Projection: 101/35/99/.274/.348/.531/26
9) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 26.4 – Small step back in K%, BB%, GB% and sprint speed, but I’m willing to write that off to his early season calf injury considering overall production remained strong. 2020 Projection: 104/32/87/.285/.349/.520/20
10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 27.4 – Carried over the major improvements he made in K% and stolen bases in 2018 into 2019. One of the premier power/speed combos in the game. 2020 Projection: 100/36/100/.283/.354/.546/22
11) Wander Franco TB, SS, 19.1 – Acuna and Soto might be old news in 2 years if Franco reaches his upside of plus to double plus all category production. He very well may be the true heir to Trout’s throne. 2020 Projection: September-13/4/9/.277/.341/.445/4 Prime Projection: 114/32/113/.316/.405/.595/19
12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2
13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7
14) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 26.0 – Gets dinged in the rankings because of the possibility of a suspension and the unknown of how much cheating improved his stats. Relatively low 92.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is another red flag. 2020 Projection: 103/30/101/.291/.403/.538/9
15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 27.6 – Armageddon 1st half (.218/.308/.344) followed by a beastly 2nd half (.327/.365/.739) that was interrupted and ultimately cut short by a fractured hamate bone. Like Bregman, low FB/LD exit velocity (91.8 MPH) indicates some power downside. 2020 Projection: 98/30/93/.279/.358/.518/25
16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2
17) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 24.11 – When I ranked Meadows 54th overall in last year’s ranking, someone asked me what I was smoking. Apparently I was toking on salvia divinorum, aka, sage of the diviners, aka it’s a plant you smoke and then you hallucinate, because Meadows broke out with a .291 BA, 33 homers, and 12 steals. He hits it very hard, hits it in the air, has speed, and has a strong plate approach. 2020 Projection: 93/32/96/.282/.351/.531/15
18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14
19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4
20) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 27.11 – Led the league in average exit velocity every year since getting called up in 2016. Smashed 15 homers in final 33 games to salvage what was shaping up to be a mediocre season. 2020 Projection: 107/42/101/.263/.370/.545/7
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)