We complete the Dynasty Team Report series today with the Atlanta Braves. Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. Here is the Atlanta Braves 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):
Hitters
Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – Seeds of a breakout were already starting to show in 2020 beneath his mediocre surface stats, and that breakout blossomed hardcore in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers and a 25.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. He keeps improving his hit tool with a career best 28.3% whiff% and he made major strides against offspeed pitches with a .369 xwOBA against them (.223 in 2020). He’s not a real .300 hitter, but there is real juice in his bat. 2022 Projection: 85/31/98/.275/.340/.511/0
Jorge Soler FRA, OF, 30.1 – Soler’s underlying numbers were strong all year, but he didn’t breakout until getting to Atlanta, putting up a .882 OPS in 55 games with Atlanta after disappointing with a .658 OPS in 94 games with KC. He had a career best 23.6% K% and 29.2% whiff% while still absolutely smoking the ball with a 117.9 Max EV that was in the top 1% of the league. He’s horrible on defense, which is the one thing that could impact his playing time depending on where he lands. 2022 Projection: 81/34/88/.252/.339/.484/0
Starting Pitchers
Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 23.11 – Shoulder inflammation limited Anderson to 128.1 IP. He wasn’t able to maintain his excellent 2020 strikeout numbers (29.7 K% in 2020 vs. 23.2% in 2021), but his 28.5% whiff% was much better (28.9% in 2020), and his seconadaries were still getting plenty of whiffs. He kept the ball on the ground with a 6.4 degree launch angle. It all led to a solid season with a pitching line of 3.58/1.23/124/53. I’m still all in on Anderson. His best years are ahead of him. 2022 Projection: 11/3.48/1.19/175 in 160 IP
Huascar Ynoa ATL, RHP, 23.10 – Ynoa missed 3 months of the season after punching the dugout and breaking his hand in May, but the more concerning injury is the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in the playoffs. Even with the injury risk he makes for an enticing target with a plus slider (.240 xwOBA) that he threw 48.2% of the time. It led to a 26.9%/6.7% K%/BB% with a 4.05 ERA. He didn’t go to the changeup often (7% usage), although it was effective when he did go to it (42.9% whiff%), and while he fires an electric 96.5 MPH fastball, it was quite hittable with a 92.6 MPH EV against and 14.6% whiff%. He’s also never displayed this level of control before, so there is some regression risk. 2022 Projection: 9/4.11/1.31/155 in 145 IP
Relief Pitching
Will Smith ATL, Closer, 32.9 – Smith has one plus pitch, but it is a damn good one with his slider putting up an elite .170 xwOBA with a 49.1% whiff%. He has sole possession of Atlanta’s closer job. 2022 Projection: 4/3.51/1.18/82/34 in 65 IP
Atlanta Braves Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects
1) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Harris is an explosive player who hits the ball hard with above average contact rates (18.1% K%) and plus speed (27 steals in 101 games at High-A). He hit only 7 homers because of a high 50.3% GB% and his home ballpark is an extreme pitcher’s park, so he has more power than he showed. He will have to raise his launch angle if he wants to unlock more of it though. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/18/71/.271/.330/.423/18
2) Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 24.5 – Langeliers’ answered the questions about his ultimate power potential this year after hitting just 2 homers in his 54 game pro debut in 2019. He brought his GB% down 9.7 percentage points to 30.7% and jacked out 22 homers in 97 games at mostly Double-A. It does come with some swing and miss, striking out 26.2% of the time at Double-A and 42.9% at Triple-A (in 14 PA). 2022 Projection: 12/3/15/.236/.302/.417/0 Prime Projection: 62/23/69/.252/.321/.444/1
3) Kyle Muller ATL, LHP, 24.6 – Muller has plus stuff with a 93.4 fastball and two swing and miss secondaries in his slider (34.6% whiff%) and curve (48.1% whiff%). It resulted in a 30.8% whiff% on the MLB level and a 27% K% at Triple-A, but his poor control makes him high risk with a 12.9% BB% (12.2% at Triple-A). There is plenty of competition in Atlanta for rotation spots, so he could end up in the pen, especially early in his career. 2022 Projection: 3/4.03/1.35/71 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.83/1.32/169 in 155 IP
4) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 23.5 – Strider made his pro debut in 2021 and made it all the way to the majors for 2.1. IP. He racked up strikeouts in the minors with a plus fastball/slider combo, putting up a 153/40 K/BB with a 3.64 ERA in 94 IP at mostly Double-A. His fastball consistently hits the upper 90’s, and the slider is potentially plus, but without a real third pitch there is a reliever risk. 2022 Projection: 2/4.25/1.33/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.01/1.30/162 in 150 IP
5) Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.3 – Grissom’s advanced plate approach transferred to full season ball with a 14.2%/11.8% K%/BB% in 87 games split between Single-A and High-A. He hit only 7 homers and his GB% was high, but at 6’3”, 180 pounds there should be more in the tank. He was 16 for 19 on the bases, and while he’s not a true burner and it’s hard to trust stolen base numbers in the lower minors, he should contribute in steals. He has average to above average across the board potential. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/20/76/.273/.347/.448/9
6) Ryan Cusick ATL, RHP, 22.5 – Selected 24th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the ball absolutely explodes out of Cusick’s hand with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a plus curve. He racks up strikeouts with 108 K’s in 70 IP, but control is a major issue with 32 walks, and his 4.24 ERA (1.39 WHIP) isn’t exactly great. His control looked better in his small sample pro debut with 4 walks in 16.1 IP at Single-A, and it didn’t impact his K rate at all with 34 strikeouts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.33/169 in 158 IP
7) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 23.3 – Waters is a great athlete with plus speed and plus power potential, but his warts are starting to overshadow his strengths. He put up a .710 OPS with a 30.9% K% and 19.6% FB% in 103 games at Triple-A. Striking out a lot and hitting the ball on the ground is not a great combo, although his speed (28 stolen bases) can make up for some of that. There is plenty of time for it to click, but the Waters’ doubters were proven right in 2021. 2022 Projection: 9/1/8/.217/.280/.373/2 Prime Projection: 74/15/68/.242/.313/.414/12
8) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 23.5 – Pache struggled hard in the majors to start the season with a negative 8 wRC+ in 22 games, and he didn’t look all that hot when he got sent down to Triple-A either with a 27.5% K% and 100 wRC+ in 89 games. His bat was always expected to bloom late as his plus centerfield defense is his carrying tool, but for fantasy purposes I’m not sure he is worth the wait. You can probably get back in later. 2022 Projection: 11/2/9/.225/.281/.384/2 Prime Projection: 75/21/79/.273/.338/.451/17
9) Diego Benitez ATL, SS, 17.4 – Benitez signed for $2.5 million this year and he has the requisite skills to back that up. He has potentially plus power with an already pretty powerful righty swing. He combines that with a solid plate approach and some speed. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.257/.328/.458/6
10) Freddy Tarnok ATL, RHP, 23.4 – Tarnok is 6’3”, 185 pounds with a big mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and developing change. He performed the best he ever has in 2021, even going back to college, with a pitching line of 3.44/1.15/109/28 in 73.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.02/1.31/158 in 160 IP
Strategy
Atlanta has a bunch of starting spots open in their lineup right now, but they will likely be filled by free agent signings once everything opens back up again. They also have a ton of talented young pitching, so many of their pitching prospects might have to break in as relievers. There are rumors the Yankees are now getting in the mix for Freeman, but using the Yankees as leverage in free agency is a tale as old as time. I’m still expecting him to be back with Atlanta.
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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)