Fantasy Baseball – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 23, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Patreon Post: Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

The 2023 Top 500 Prospects Rankings will drop in a week or two over on Patreon (released for free on IBW in mid to late March), but I love to put out the traditional Top 100 first. These rankings are for medium size, 5×5 BA dynasty leagues. Here are the Top 100 Prospects Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-DYNASTY TEAM REPORTS FOR EVERY TEAM (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

3) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

4) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

5) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

6) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

7) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

8) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

9) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

10) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/28/91/.273/.345/.492/17

11) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

12) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

13) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

14) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

15) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

16) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

17) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 16, 2023January 19, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Top 10 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right?!?! Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me for being so naive. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

2) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.8 – Abel’s 6’5”, 190 pound build, combined with a 4 pitch mix led by a mid to upper 90’s fastball, screams ace upside, but the numbers and command say more mid rotation starter. He put up a 3.90 ERA with a 130/50 K/BB in 108.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. Maybe the immediate and unquestioned dominance of Painter put the expectations too high for the still very young Abel. It seems reasonable to expect continued refinement of his command and secondaries in his age 21 year old season. If he can take those steps, his value will skyrocket, but even as is, he’s a damn exciting prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/181 in 170 IP

3) Justin Crawford PHI, OF, 18.6 – Son of Carl Crawford. I could honestly end the blurb right there and you will know exactly the type of player Justin is. 6.11 second 60 yard dash is in the elite of the elite, and he has shown a good feel to hit. The power hasn’t fully developed yet, and he hit 0 homers with very, very high groundball rates in his 16 game pro debut, so he’s not only going to have to get stronger, he’s also going to have to make a swing adjustment to tap into more power. His upside is as high as anyone’s in a 5×5 BA, but he’s not as refined as the high school hitters ranked above him. He was selected 17th overall. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/16/69/.270/.337/.426/31

4) Griff McGarry PHI, RHP, 23.10 – McGarry has a mid to upper 90’s fastball that literally looks like it is swimming through the air. Hitters have had some ugly swings trying to square that thing up. The secondaries are nasty too with a plus slider, plus cutter, a changeup that flashes plus, and a curve as well. It led to a 35.7% K% in 87.1 IP split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). It’s top of the rotation stuff. The one snafu is that his control is very bad. He had a 14.6% BB%. His 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP don’t exactly pop. His control issues were actually much worse than this in college (42 walks in 43 IP in the ACC in 2021), so this is improvement. I’m not sure if that means there could be continued improvement coming, or if this is the top of his ability. He very well could end up in the bullpen, and that is probably the most likely outcome, but if his control can take just one more step forward, he’s going to be a major problem. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.67/1.28/172 in 150 IP

5) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 18.5 – Bergolla was a favorite of mine from the 2022 international class and he was a hit machine in his pro debut with a .380 BA and 3.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 24 games in the DSL. It was good for a 150 wRC+. He didn’t hit a single homer and he only stole 2 bags, so I’m a little concerned about the upside, but he’s one of the safest bats coming out of the DSL. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.281/.343/.414/16

6) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 22.8 – Rojas is a speedster who nabbed 62 bags in 67 attempts in 130 games split between High-A and Double-A. He has above average, but not elite contact rates with a 17.8% K%, and his power is lacking with only 7 homers. We’ve seen enough of these types of prospects struggle hard when they hit the majors, but he has an elite skill in his speed, and the power should hopefully tick up in time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/13/57/.252/.318/.396/27

7) Hao Yu Lee PHI, SS/3B/2B, 20.2 – Lee had a strong season in the lower minors, slashing .284/.386/.438 with 9 homers, 14 steals, and a 67/43 K/BB in 79 games at mostly Single-A, but he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to get excited. He was only 19 years old, but he’s not that projectable at 5’10”, 190 pounds, and he’s not a burner either. It’s a low upside profile with risk due to the lack of power upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/15/62/.253/.323/.417/6

8) Nikau Pouaka-Grego PHI, 2B/3B, 18.7 – Pouaka-Grego was 17 years old playing in stateside rookie ball and he excelled, slashing .301/.424/.466 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 16/16 K/BB in 35 games. He has a smooth lefty uppercut swing that is made to hit flyballs (36.1% GB%), and he combines that with an advanced plate approach. He’s not a big raw power or speed guy, so the upside might not be huge. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.273/.344/.432/6

9) Gabriel Rincones PHI, OF, 22.1 – Selected 93rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rincones is 6’4″, 225 pounds with a quick lefty swing that produces all fields power. He destroyed Conference USA, slashing .346/.451/.658 with 19 homers, 2 steals, and a 51/42 K/BB in 58 games. He hasn’t faced the best competition and there is some swing and miss in his game, but the power is for real. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/18/63/.244/.322/.448/2

10) … Nobody – There ain’t no participation trophies at Imaginary Brick Wall (even though I had a shelf full of them as a kid) 🤣 Nobody who I could give this spot to would even crack my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Some systems I wanted to go over 20 deep, and this one stops at 9. Just how the cookie crumbles. Let’s move on to MLB guys …

MLB Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel PHI, Closer Committee, 34.10 – If Kimbrel is right, his name value and track record should lock down the closer job for Philly, but there is no guarantee he will be right. He was terrible in 2019 and 2020, inconsistent in 2021, and just mediocre in 2022 with a 3.75 ERA and a career low by far 27.7 K%. The stuff is still big with a 95.8 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a 43.6% whiff%, but it’s not as big as it used to be. He used to throw 98+ MPH and his slider used to put up a 55% whiff%. He’s never been a plus control guy, so he doesn’t have that pitchability to fall back on as the stuff drops off. He’s pretty clearly in a decline phase, but the skills are there to still be a good reliever, and even if he’s not the best pen arm Philly has, I think he’ll get the job if he is acceptable enough. 2023 Projection: 4/3.51/1.22/80/20 saves in 63 IP

Jose Alvarado PHI, Closer Committee, 27.10 – This bullpen is full of high upside options, but Alvarado might have the highest upside of them all. He had a silly 37.9% K% on the back of a 99.6 MPH sinker and an elite cutter that put up a .110 xwOBA and 55.7% whiff%. He’s struggled with control his entire career, but something clicked in the 2nd half of the season where he put up a 1.30 ERA with a 61/10 K/BB in his final 34.2 IP. Being a lefty might work against him locking down the full time closer role, but he should be their top lefthanded option there. 2023 Projection: 4/3.03/1.18/82/15 saves in 58 IP

Seranthony Dominguez PHI, Closer Committee, 28.4 – If Kimbrel can’t lock down the job in Spring, Dominguez could be the favorite to get the first shot at it. His slider is elite with a 57.1% whiff% and he combines that with 2 upper 90’s fastballs in his 97.6 MPH 4-seamer and 98.2 MPH sinker. It was good for a 3.00 ERA and 61/22 K/BB in 51 IP, which doesn’t exactly jump off the screen, but he’s capable of topping that. 2023 Projection: 4/3.15/1.12/71/10 saves in 55 IP

Gregory Soto PHI, Closer Committee, 28.2 – No, don’t do it. It just can’t be him. He isn’t good. He had a 4.08 xERA with 1.38 WHIP and a bad 22.8%/12.9% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. The stuff is big with a 98.7 MPH fastball, so the talent is certainly there, but he seems like the clear worst option here. 2023 Projection: 3/3.66/1.33/66/5 saves in 60 IP

MLB Hitters

Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Philly made some adjustments with Marsh after they traded for him, and he performed well there with a 114 wRC+ in 138 PA, but I’m still struggling to buy in too hard because the plate approach was still poor with a 29.7%/4.3% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a line drive approach and has plus speed. That is a profile where good things tend to happen if you can make enough contact and/or get on base, but Marsh is struggling in both of those areas. He’s also been terrible against lefties. A strong side of a platoon bat seems like the best case scenario for early in his career. 2023 Projection: 53/11/48/.248/.309/.415/11

MLB Starting Pitchers

Ranger Suarez PHI, LHP, 27.8 – Suarez had visa issues because of the lockout, arriving late to camp in Spring, and it clearly messed him up. He put up a 4.74 ERA in his first 43.2 IP, but then found his rhythm and put up a 3.22 ERA the rest of the way in 111.2 IP. His game is all about keeping the ball on the ground (5.1 degree launch) and inducing weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against). He does it mostly with a 92.5 MPH sinker that put up a negative 3 degree launch, but he also has 5 other pitches, 4 of which put up an above average xwOBA (change, cutter, curve, slider). He doesn’t have huge stuff, he’s not a huge K guy (19.5% K%), and he’s not an elite command guy (8.8% BB%), so the upside isn’t necessarily huge, but there is an interesting blend of skills and pitch mix here to be a legitimate impact fantasy starter. 2023 Projection: 11/3.73/1.25/150 in 170 IP

Bailey Falter PHI, LHP, 25.11 – I named Bailey a low key, late round flier type target last off-season, and while Philly used him as an up and down arm for the most of the year, he excelled when they finally gave him a real shot. He put up a 3.00 ERA with 37/6 K/BB in 45 IP to close out the season. Plus control is his game with an elite 4.9% BB%. The stuff isn’t big with a 91 MPH sinker, but he has a 5 pitch mix that puts up respectable K rates with an almost average 21.2% K% and 23.8% whiff%. He won’t be a league winner, but he can a stabilizing force at the back of your fantasy rotation if he can make it through spring with the 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 9/3.89/1.23/127 in 140 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Smart teams know that depth is extremely important, so the Cubs recent signings of Hosmer and Mancini are good moves for real life, but man do they throw a wrench in the Matt Mervis hype train. I can’t say I didn’t see this coming, trying to pour at least a small amount of water on the hype, writing in the Mervis blurb, “Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now.” I also brought up his platoon risk. If you’re a Mervis fan, this should only be a temporary road block, but it’s now questionable whether he will even break camp with the team, and he’s going to have to earn it every step of the way without a very long leash when he does get his shot. You can no longer count on him holding down that 1B job for your dynasty team in 2023. If he eventually wins it, consider it gravy.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 260 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on January 2, 2023January 4, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – I implored my Patreon members to go out and buy Lodolo (along with Spencer Strider and Cristian Javier) while he was on the IL in my Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets back in June, and then the breakout came shortly after that. He put up a 3.35 ERA with a 112/34 K/BB in 88.2 IP after touting him (5.52 ERA in 14.2 IP previously). His curveball is the money maker with a .220 xwOBA and 46% whiff%, and the bat missing 94.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either with a 27.6% whiff%. He rounds out the repertoire with a groundball inducing sinker and changeup. He’s an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’6” with a Randy Johnson-esque side arm lefty delivery. Injuries and Great American Ballpark are the only things that can hold him back. 2023 Projection: 10/3.48/1.18/175 in 150 IP

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 23.8 – It felt like I was the only one who believed in Greene for a little while there, naming him a player to target in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Targets in September, and while his late season dominance chipped into some of that value, I still think there is a buying opportunity. He closed the season out with a 1.02 ERA and 51/8 K/BB in his final 35.1 IP. He throws a swing and miss 98.3 MPH fastball (28.3% whiff%) with a plus slider (.245 xwOBA). It was good for a 4.44 ERA (4.00 xERA) and a 30.9%/9.0% K%/BB% in 125.2 IP on the season, which is a damn good rookie year. A shoulder injury knocked out one and a half months of his season, and his lightly used changeup got hit up, but he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. Use the inflated ERA to buy while you still can. 2023 Projection: 10/3.65/1.20/188 in 160 IP

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – Ashcraft wasn’t able to miss nearly enough bats in the majors with a 15.3% K% and 18.6% whiff%. It led to a 4.89 ERA in 105 IP. There are reasons for hope though. His 97.3 MPH cutter, which he went to over half the time (50.7% usage), generally got the job done with a 2 degree launch and 85.6 MPH EV against. His slider was an above average pitch with a .269 xwOBA and 32% whiff%. He induced weak contact (86.9 MPH EV), kept the ball in the ground (3.8 degree launch), and threw the ball over the plate (career best at any level 6.5% BB%). His 4.02 xERA looks much better than the inflated ERA. Ashcraft also realizes the almost all fastball approach (he threw a sinker 21.5% of the time too) isn’t going to cut it, and has been working hard on his changeup and splitter this off-season. He should go for a super cheap price this off-season, and I will almost certainly be grabbing him in every league. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.32/129 in 155 IP

Hitters

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – India’s low EV from 2021 (87.6 MPH) came back to bite him in 2022, and it actually got even worse, tanking to 85.1 MPH. His speed tanked too from an 85.6 percentile speed rank to 58.9 percentile. He battled a variety of injuries all season long, but it’s hard to place all of the blame on them. You’re going to get dinged up as a major leaguer. It was a disaster sophomore season all around. We’ve seen many players bounce back from the classic sophomore slump, and he’s still in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. You don’t want to write off such a talented player like India after one bad, injury filled year. This is a bet on the player and the talent, because the underlying numbers are not kind to him. 2023 Projection: 76/20/72/.256/.333/.427/9

Wil Myers CIN, 1B/OF, 32.4 – Myers fantasy value was in it’s final death throes, but his value got one of those double paddle electrical impulses to the chest by signing with Cincinnati. It’s not like getting hit by those paddles returns you to prime form, but at least he has a pulse. He goes from one of the worst ballparks in the league to one of the best. He’s been a below average hitter for the last two years with high K rates (30.1% K% in 2022) and mediocre EV numbers (91.4 MPH FB/LD EV), but neither of them are in hopeless territory, and he still has his athleticism with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m far from targeting him, but he’s an interesting later round pick for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 66/19/69/.251/.322/.429/9

Jake Fraley CIN, OF, 27.10 – Fraley had a strong 2022 with a .812 OPS in 68 games, but I’m not buying in. His 85.1 MPH EV is terrible and it’s been bad his entire career. His hit tool took a big step forward with a career best 21.9% K%, but it’s still only average at best with a .259 BA and .248 xBA. And while he has some speed with a 28 ft/sec sprint, he only stole 4 bags last year. You certainly can’t count on the power, it’s doubtful he will be a positive in BA, and you can’t count on big stolen base totals. 2023 Projection: 66/14/59/.250/.331/.420/9

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 26.6 – It’s been said a million and one times, but no other position has as many guys who pop up and perform to truly elite levels. It’s why going cheap on closer is a very effective strategy. Diaz made his pro debut in 2022 and was immediately elite with a pitching line of 1.84/0.96/83/33 in 63.2 IP. He has that classic closer profile with 95.7 MPH gas combined with a plus slider (.234 xwOBA and 45% whiff%). He misses bats (32.5% K%) and induces weak contact (86.7 MPH EV against). Poor control is the one thing that can hold him back with a 12.9% BB%, but his control really wasn’t that horrific in his minor league career, so I’m not super concerned about that. He seems locked in as Cincy’s closer and is a great 2nd/3rd tier closer to grab after the top guys go for a much much higher price. 2023 Projection: 4/3.22/1.16/85/26 saves in 65 IP

Top 20 Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He then played in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he ran a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

2) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

3) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

4) Spencer Steer CIN, SS/2B/3B, 25.4 – Low EV numbers in a prospects MLB debut are a bit scary to me, and Steer’s 84.7 MPH EV in 108 PA put a halt to his hype train from the destruction he laid in the upper minors. He slashed .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 4 steals, and a 89/51 K/BB in 106 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit the ball harder in the minors, but he’s no Aaron Judge, and at 25 years old already, it’s hard to say there is much more power coming. It wasn’t all bad in the majors as he showed a strong plate approach with a 24.1%/10.2% K%/BB% and an above average 24.8% Chase%. His 90.1 MPH FB/LD EV also isn’t as hopeless as his average, and I don’t want to put too much weight on the small sample. He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut. 2023 Projection: 44/14/42/.250/.316/.419/3 Prime Projection: 77/23/76/.267/.334/.446/5

5) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 19.7 – Arroyo had a huge start to the season, cracking 12 homers in his first 63 games, but he hit only 2 homers in 53 games the rest of the way. His K% took a step back too, putting up a 22.8% K% in 87 games with Seattle and a 28.4% K% in 27 games after getting traded to Cincinnati. He had a high BABIP and a mediocre 8.5% BB%. He’s not some insane athlete, the hit tool has risk, and there isn’t big raw power. I say all this to just give some caution, because he had a damn exciting triple slash of .293/.366/.480 with 14 homers and 27 steals at Single-A. The upside isn’t huge, but it’s hard not to be impressed by this level of performance from someone who was 18 years old for most of the year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/72/.258/.320/.427/18

6) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.4 – Strand has destroyed every level he’s been at, putting up a 1.103 OPS in 2021 in the Big 12, a 1.022 OPS at Single-A in 2021, a .986 OPS at High-A in 2022, and a .934 OPS at Double-A in 2022. He has big time power, smashing 32 homers in 122 games split between High-A and Double-A this year. The plate approach isn’t great with a 25.0%/4.8% K%/BB% at Double-A, and he’s not a good defensive player, so he will likely have to scratch and claw for playing time. The trade to Cincinnati from Minnesota gives him both a major ballpark upgrade and also an opportunity upgrade. 2023 Projection: 11/4/13/.233/.298/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/81/.247/.316/.462/3

7) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.6 – Jorge completely backed up his big 2021 in the DSL, slashing .261/.405/.529 with 7 homers, 27 steals, and a 26.6%/16.2% K%/BB% in 42 games in stateside rookie ball. He’s not an imposing figure at 5’10”, 160 pounds, but he can certainly put a charge into the ball in the mold of a Jose Ramirez, and he’s an excellent base runner with plus speed. The strikeout rate is a little higher than optimal, but don’t let his diminutive stature fool you, Jorge has legitimate upside and could explode up rankings in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/18/68/.263/.337/.423/25

8) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Stewart is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential to hit for both power and average. He put up a 5/4 K/BB with 4 doubles and a 135 wRC+ in 8 games in his pro debut at rookie ball, and he didn’t show any major groundball issues with a 42.1% GB%. He might end up moving to 1B, but he has the bat to profile anywhere. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.268/.341/.476/4

9) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – McLain had a big power/speed season at Double-A with 17 homers and 27 steals in 103 games at Double-A, but his .232 BA and 28.1% K% is concerning, and he tanked in the AFL with a .657 OPS and 31.2% K%. He’s not a big raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds, so the hit tool trouble is particularly troubling. 2023 Projection: 9/2/11/.223/.291/.403/3 Prime Projection: 69/18/73/.238/.317/.421/16

10) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 20.4 – Allen’s power was much worse than anticipated. He hit only 3 homers in 91 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. There was tons of weak contact that led to a .225 BA. His contact rates weren’t all that good either with a 24% K%. He’s a great athlete with plus speed (43 steals) and more raw power in the tank at 6’2”, 190 pounds, so the upside is still high, but the lack of power was extreme enough for me to shy away from him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.240/.317/.418/22

11) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 20.0 – Petty’s stuff wasn’t as big as advertised with his fastball sitting around 93-94 MPH rather than the mid to upper 90’s we were expecting/hoping for. Maybe he was taking a little bit off to help his control/command, because he was better than expected there with a 7.7% BB%. He put up a 3.48 ERA with a 23.7% K%. We thought he was high risk/high reward coming into 2022, and he ended up being the opposite of that. He’s now relatively safe but the upside seems limited, especially with Great American Ballpark waiting for him. Maybe he’ll start airing it out more in 2023 to reclaim his upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.28/153 in 160 IP

12) Leonardo Balcazar CIN, SS, 18.9 – Balcazar ripped up the DSL in 2021 with a 135 wRC+, and he did the same stateside in 2022 with a 144 wRC+ in 42 games. His 25% K% is on the high side, but he has an exciting blend of tools with emerging power (4 homers in 42 games), speed (13 steals), and a mature plate approach (10.7% BB%). He’s flying too far under the radar. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/21/74/.263/.334/.432/14

13) Victor Acosta CIN, SS, 18.10 – Acosta couldn’t build on his standout DSL performance in 2021. His OPS dropped to .707 and he went 5 for 12 on the bases in 42 games stateside. It wasn’t a complete disaster with a 22.4%/12.7% K%/BB% that led to a slightly above average wRC+, but his value took a big hit. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 70/14/61/.253/.324/.410/11

14) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 21.11 – Phillips has major bullpen risk, but he can be an elite back end guy even if he does end up there. He has big time stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average curve. It led to 150 K’s in 109.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The bullpen risk comes from his poor control (66 walks) and weak changeup. He also performed much worse at Double-A (4.93 ERA in 45.2 IP) than at High-A (2.95 ERA in 64 IP). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.43/1.19/83/25 saves in 65 IP

15) Brandon Williamson CIN, LHP, 25.0 – Williamson was getting hyped up pretty hard last off-season, and I’m quite happy I held strong with my evaluation of him as more of a #4 type starter. He was bad in 2022 with a pitching line of 4.11/1.56/123/77 in 122.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and his control was terrible with a 13.9% BB%. He’s a skinny 6’6” lefty with a starter’s pitch mix, so even at 25 years old there is room for improvement, but it’s a back end starter’s profile right now. 2023 Projection: 2/4.55/1.42/40 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/162 in 165 IP

16) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 23.4 – The 6’3”, 170 pound Cerda has no joke power with a big righty swing that does damage. He hits the ball damn hard and ended up with 24 homers in 124 games split between High-A and Double-A. The hit tool is a major issue though as the power came with a .208 BA and 33.2% K%. Cincy’s current OF is a dumpster fire and there really isn’t any help on the way in the minors, so Cerda is in the perfect organization and ballpark to get the most out of his profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/24/75/.222/.314/.456/5

17) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 17.3 – The 2nd best catcher in the international class, Duno is a power hitting beast in the mold of Diego Cartaya. He’s already built like a man with a strong base (3:25 mark of the video). He’s a good athlete and swings a quick bat. He’s not far off from Ethan Salas, and might have more fantasy upside especially if he stays in Cincy. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 68/27/81/.251/.326/.472/3

18) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 19.1 – Rodriguez is a little guy at 5’8” with a plus hit tool. He hit .359 with a 7.1% K% in rookie ball. There is little to no power projection (3 homers in 49 total games), and he’s not that fast, so it’s not a high upside profile. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/13/63/.278/.332/.411/7

19) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 18.5 – Coming off signing for $2.7 million, Cabrera didn’t exactly stand out in the DSL with only 1 homer, 5 steals, and a mediocre 22.2%/7.2% K%/BB% in 45 games, but it was still good for an above average 108 wRC+. I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t have to pull the rip cord completely too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/20/74/.258/.324/.434/11

20) Carlos Sanchez CIN, 3B/OF, 18.3 – Sanchez was a DSL standout, slashing .355/.505/.442 with 2 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.4%/22% K%/BB%. It was good for a 169 wRC+. There isn’t much info out there on him, but I don’t care what level you’re playing at, if you get on base more than 50% of the time, that is impressive. He’s at least worth being on your radar to see what he can do stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/14/54/.267/.334/.409/8

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Resist the urge to trade down in First Year Player Drafts. With First Year Player Draft season ramping up (my Top 100+ FYPD Rankings are dropping this week), now is the time of year where you are sure to get peppered with tons of, “Hey man, you have interest in trading your 5th overall pick for my 11th and 16th?” Every dynasty manager has that Bill Belichick in them, trying to tinker, strategize, and out smart the competition, but in 99% of dynasty leagues I’ve played in it rarely makes sense to trade down. In most leagues there is a surplus of prospects available anyway. Either they can be picked up freely during the year, or there is a prospect max per team that creates a prospect crunch. Even if those don’t apply to you, you don’t need a million prospects in your system. One gem is worth more than several decent guys. Hold strong in your draft position, dodge all of those shady trade offers, and pick the best available player.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 19, 2022December 27, 2022 by Michael Halpern

St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the St. Louis Cardinals 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B//Top 115 3B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 25.7 – A Nootbaar is like one of the those healthy, organic, 90% cocoa dark chocolate bars. It’s an adult snack that is heart healthy. It has an excellent plate approach (20.5%/14.7% K%/BB%), hits the ball hard (91.7 MPH EV), and is fast (28.2 ft/sec sprint). It’s a sensible snack that fits into a healthy diet. But it lacks that flair factor. It’s got no caramel, no peanut butter, no nuts, no nougat. It has a line drive approach (10.7 degree launch) and it’s never been a big base stealer, so you can’t expect big homer and steal totals. You’re not getting that flavor explosion. “Everything in moderation, even moderation,” is possibly the most important words to live by, and it applies here. A team full of Nootbaar’s will be boring, but he can be the perfect piece to fit into a more high risk, high reward lineup. 2023 Projection: 79/20/74/.258/.351/.454/8

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.10 – O’Neill wasn’t able to back up his 2021 breakout with a .700 OPS in 96 games battling a variety of injuries throughout the year, but I only look at it as a buying opportunity. He matured at the plate with a career best 26.9% K% and career best 9.9% BB%. His .331 xwOBA was much better than his .307 wOBA. The power/speed combo was still beastly with a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 29.8 ft/sec sprint. He’s setting up for a monster 2023 and there is now a buying opportunity you should jump all over. 2023 Projection: 81/29/89/.254/.326/.492/18

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Yepez has a defense problem, which might not be as big of a deal on another team, but with Goldy locked in at 1B and St. Louis’ prowess in developing underrated hitters (and property rated hitters too), it’s a big deal. He put up a 109 wRC+ on the back of his contact/power profile, but his negative 9.8 defensive value made him a 0.1 WAR player in 76 games. His contact/power combo also isn’t quite huge enough to really force St. Louis’ hand with an average 22.3% K% and below average 86.5 MPH EV (the 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV is above average). His 5.8% BB% led to a .296 OBP, which is really unacceptable for a bat only player. Yepez has Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson all nipping on his heels for at bats. You simply can’t trust he has a full time job, and it seems very likely that he doesn’t. 2023 Projection: 51/19/57/.248/.309/.460/0

Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 27.6 – Don’t get pulled in on the name value. A shoulder injury completely wrecked Flaherty’s season, limiting him to 36 IP, and nothing looked resolved when he returned in September. His control was completely gone with a 13.2% BB% and his whiff% hit a career low 25.5%. You can say you are buying the track record and giving him a pass, but he’s been bad for years now with a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021, and 4.94 xERA in 2022. His stuff was mostly back and he still induced weak contact, so I don’t think he he is a complete lost cause, but his injury and performance risk would prevent me from acquiring him at anything other than a sweet heart price. 2023 Projection: 8/3.98/1.28/140 in 140 IP

Jordan Montgomery STL, LHP, 29.9 – Montgomery credited his extra success with St. Louis (3.11 ERA vs. 3.69 ERA in NY) on their trust in letting him throw his 4-seamer more, but considering he was starting to fall apart a bit at the end of the season (4.97 ERA in final 38 IP), I’m leaning towards it just being small sample variation. He’s a damn good pitcher no matter how you slice it with 2 bat missing secondaries in his curveball (41.4% whiff%) and changeup (41% whiff%), to go along with plus control of the entire 5 pitch arsenal (5% BB%). If he feels more comfortable going to the 4-seamer more, it didn’t seem to hurt him at the very least. 2023 Projection: 11/3.56/1.18/160 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 28.9 – Helsley doesn’t have the name value or the track record, but that is all that is holding him back from being a legitimate option for first closer off the board. He put up a 1.25 ERA with a 39.3%/8.4% K%/BB% in 64.2 IP. He throws a 99.6 MPH fastball with a slider that put up a 53.5% whiff% and a curve that had a .071 xwOBA. Losing his control is the only thing that could stop him. 2023 Projection: 4/2.67/1.02/90/30 saves in 62 IP

Top 10 St. Louis Cardinals Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. 2023 Projection: 42/12/47/.251/.326/.461/7 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

2) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

3) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.0 – The risk with Winn is that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, and while he has a good hit tool, a 20.1% K% isn’t close to elite. If he puts up an 86 MPH EV with a 25% K% in his MLB debut it wouldn’t be all that surprising. A CJ Abrams situation could be on the horizon where his price takes a drop after his debut. Power is often the last tool to come with prospects though, so you don’t want to dismiss plus hit/speed combos who don’t have big power at 20 years old. This could be a mid 20’s breakout scenario rather than a guy who steps into the bigs and immediately sets the world on fire. An Andres Gimenez type come up would be the optimal path. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/15/63/.270/.333/.421/24

4) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4 – Burleson is a St. Louis special. An underrated hitter who has quietly been raking forever. St. Louis’ ability to produce these types of prospects is likely a combo of superior scouting and superior development. He put up a 137 wRC+ with 20 homers and a 14.3% K% in 109 games at Triple-A. He made his MLB debut and while the surface stats didn’t look good with a .535 OPS in 53 PA, the underlying numbers looked good with a 91.7 MPH EV, 17.9%/9.4% K%/BB%, and .322 xwOBA. The upside might not be huge with a line drive approach, and he’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time, but I’m pretty confident in saying this guy is going to be a legit MLB hitter. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.262/.311/.430/1 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.277/.330/.451/2

5) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Hjerpe is a classic Cardinals pick of a rock solid, safe starter who might be better in real life than fantasy. I say “might be,” because he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, but I’m also staying conservative on his ranking because the stuff says more 3/4 type starter with a low 90’s fastball, and I’m concerned more advanced hitters won’t be quite as thrown off by the delivery. Regardless, he dominated the Pac12 with a 2.53 ERA and 161/23 K/BB in 103.1 IP, and he’s in a great developmental organization. If you play in a deep league or league where good real life pitchers get bumps, I can definitely see targeting Hjerpe. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.24/ 172 in 172 IP

6) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 23.0 – Graceffo has big stuff with a fastball he can get into the upper 90’s, and he has plus control with a 6.3% BB% at Double-A, but the strikeout numbers leave something to be desired. He put up a pitching line of 3.94/1.07/83/24 in 93.2 IP at Double-A. It was good for a 4.63 xFIP. He didn’t put up big K numbers in college either, although he was able to destroy High-A with a 33.9% K% in 45.2 IP, so there could be more in the tank. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 210 pounds with a herky jerky righty delivery that doesn’t exactly scream upside. He strikes me as a #4 type starter who could play up with St. Louis’ excellent defense behind him. 2023 Projection: 1/4.38/1.31/12 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.94/1.24/161 in 175 IP

7) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 19.9 – The 6’4”, 220 pound Baez has big time power with big time strikeout issues. He hit 3 homers with a 170 wRC+ in 20 games at Single-A, but it came with a 38% K%. He had a 32.6% in 12 games at rookie ball too. He’s not just a hulking slugger, he’s a good athlete with some speed, stealing 10 bags in 32 games. He’ll still be firmly 19 years old when the 2023 starts, which is a similar age to the incoming rookie class, so he’s ahead of the game. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.242/.324/.472/8

8) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 23.5 – Liberatore managed to get worse his 2nd run through Triple-A. He put up a 4.04 ERA in 124.2 IP in 2021, and then a 5.17 ERA in 115 IP in 2022. His MLB debut didn’t go much better with a 5.97 ERA and 17.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. The numbers don’t look great, but he has the stuff and repertoire to be a mid to back end starter. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a beautiful plus curveball that is a plus pitch, putting up a .259 xwOBA and 35.2% whiff%. He combines that with a 93.7 MPH fastball that is his most used pitch, a 92.8 MPH sinker that was not effective at inducing grounders (14 degree launch), a 85.9 MPH changeup that got destroyed, and a 86 MPH slider that is his least used pitch but was excellent when he went to it (.176 xwOBA). Even watching him in the minors I thought it was clear he has to go to his curve more (and slider more too). He’s not a finished product, but the ingredients are there for him to turn into a solid MLB starter if he can find the right pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 3/4.41/1.36/71 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.29/158 in 170 IP

9) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 18.0 – The switch hitting Mejia cracked my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings at #999, and he proved he deserved to be on the list with a strong pro debut in the DSL, slashing .267/.418/.479 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 23.1%/15.9% K%/BB% in 45 games. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He’s not the type who is likely to explode to elite prospect status, but there is potential for an above average hit/power combo at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/21/78/.268/.331/.444/6

10) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 22.10 – Contreras’ signing with St. Louis makes Herrera a back up for the foreseeable future. He hit 6 homers with a 50.8% GB% in 65 games at Triple-A and then put up a 85.2 MPH EV with 0 barrels in 22 PA in his MLB debut. He has a strong plate approach with above average contact rates and plus walk rates throughout his minor league career, so while he could be a solid real life hitter, he’s not a fantasy target. 2023 Projection: 6/1/8/.242/.308/.388/0 Prime Projection: 61/16/65/.265/.337/.421/2

11) Moises Gomez STL, OF, 24.7 – It’s hard to ignore a guy who cranked 39 homers in the upper minors and was more or less age appropriate for the levels, but a 34.7% K% is equally hard to ignore. Gomez is a corner OF bat without a clear path to playing time and major hit tool risk. The huge power season puts him back on the map, but he’s trending towards a bench power bat. 2023 Projection: 9/3/11/.211/.290/.417/1 Prime Projection: 42/15/47/.226/.305/.437/3

12) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 22.9 – McGreevy is the classic arm who holds more value in very deep leagues. He doesn’t have big stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and he isn’t a strikeout pitcher with a measly 18.4% K% in 99 IP at Double-A. It led to a 4.64 ERA. He’s a back end starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.32/140 in 165 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I have some thoughts on a few recent signings:

Noah Syndergaard signs with the Dodgers for 1 year, $13 million – This one almost feels too easy. Like we’re falling into a trap. Thor is a shell of his former self, but he accepted that reality and was barely throwing his 4-seamer by the end of the season. He has the skills to transition into more of a finesse pitcher with plus control over a 5 pitch mix, and he still throws respectably hard with a 93.6 MPH sinker and 94.1 MPH 4-seamer. If anybody can unlock every drop of upside left in this tank, it’s the Dodgers. I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to turn into a strikeout machine with them, but I’m expecting strong ratios and wins. I’m buying back in as a Top 200 ish dynasty asset.

Carlos Correa signs with SF for 13 years, $350 million – I was already fading Correa’s boring fantasy profile, and with his move to San Francisco, I’m even further off him. SF has the 2nd worst park in the league for righty homers, and while it plays around neutral in general, homers are king for fantasy. I’m not seeing a path to fantasy upside. He ranked 120th on my Top 150 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings.

Carlos Rodon signs with the Yanks for 6 years, $162 million – Rodon is the type of elite starter where you don’t sweat the small stuff. He gets a ballpark and stress downgrade signing with the Yanks, but elite stuff conquers all. There is still injury risk, but obviously the Yanks felt comfortable enough with him to give him a 6 year deal. The move to NY doesn’t change his value for me in either direction.

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 12, 2022December 16, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

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Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Hitters

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 23.9 – Morel still has his lack of prospect love baked into his price, because if he got the hype he deserved, you wouldn’t be able to get him at such a good price this off-season. He destroyed Triple-A with a 147 wRC+ in 28 games and then smacked up MLB pitching with a 13.4% Barrel% and 89.6/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. Not many 22/23 year old rookies step into the majors and hit the ball that hard. He’s also very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. The skills are there for Morel to be a household name. A legit star. The hit tool is the one thing that could hold him back with a 32.2% K% and 38.3% whiff%, but his 28.6% Chase% is actually league average and he never had strikeout issues to this level in the minors. I’m betting on the K’s coming down, allowing the power/speed combo to shine. He fell off in the 2nd half of the season, but he had a 93.6 MPH EV in September, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a high upside, semi-proven youngster who should be impossible to acquire. Love him as a target. 2023 Projection: 77/23/79/.247/.320/.441/14

Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 28.8 – I projected Suzuki for a .264 BA and .336 OBP last off-season in the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he ended up hitting .262 with a .336 OBP. Not too bad if I don’t say so myself. I was a little too heavy on the power (.463 projected SLG vs. .433 actual SLG), but taking into account the dead ball, that was probably pretty close too. I wrote in the 2022 Top 1,000, “I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter,” and that is more or less exactly how it played out with a 116 wRC+. Now that he was a full year under his belt to get acclimated, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step forward in 2023. 2023 Projection: 81/23/74/.267/.339/.451/11

Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 25.11 – I want to like Hoerner more, but I’m struggling to get over the poor 87.2/89.8 MPH AVG/FB EV which led to a below average .301 xwOBA and terrible 2.6% Barrel%. He also had a below average walk rate (5.4% BB%) and Chase% (33.7%). He’s a plus contact guy (11% K%) with plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint), so while crushing the ball isn’t necessarily his game, I think there’s a chance the bottom falls out offensively. It doesn’t worry me enough to stay away from him, but he’s not someone I am going to make sure I get. There are other lower cost speed options who I like the value on more. 2023 Projection: 76/10/62/.275/.324/.406/18

Starting Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 27.9 – Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation. He induces weak contact (87.1 MPH EV), keeps the ball on the ground (51.2% GB%), and misses bats (24.6% K%). That’s a great combo of skills. It led to a 3.18 ERA and 126 K’s in 119 IP. The one snafu is his control, putting up a 9.8% BB% and 1.35 WHIP, but even without control improvements that 1.35 WHIP feels high to me. He mostly went to this fastball/slider combo in 2022, but he has a 5 pitch mix and the curve and change performed very well in small doses. The overriding point is there are a few avenues of improvement, whether it be pitch mix changes and/or refining his control. I’m not going to stick my neck out for him, but I would be happy to roster Steele in leagues of all sizes in 2023. 2023 Projection: 9/3.66/1.27/157 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Brandon Hughes CHC, Closer Committee, 27.4 – There is a long off-season to go, but it doesn’t seem like a bad bet that Hughes will be able to get through it with at least a share of the closer job. His slider put up elite level whiffs with a 49.1% whiff% and it led to a 3.12 ERA with 68 K’s in 57.2 IP in his rookie year. He was untouchable in the minors with a 1.96 ERA and 124/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP from 2021-22). His 9.2% BB% isn’t great, and he’s not a flame thrower with a 93.2 MPH fastball, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience pitching, which leads me to believe there could be more room to grow than a typical 27 year old. If you wait on saves, Hughes is looking mighty juicy right now. 2023 Projection: 4/3.52/1.17/77/22 saves in 63 IP

Top 10 Chicago Cubs Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

2) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 25.0 – The Marvelous Mr. Mervis set the baseball world on fire with his AFL performance, smashing 6 homers with a .914 OPS in 17 games, but being brutally honest, the .262 BA and .324 OBP isn’t super impressive for a 24 year old who was almost 2 years older than the average player. It’s also an extreme offensive environment. I always caution against putting too much stock into the AFL numbers, but in Mervis’ case, it wasn’t just the AFL, he ripped up the upper minors too, slashing .309/.379/.606 with 36 homers and a 18.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 137 games split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). There is some platoon risk as he hits righties much better than lefties, and this was definitely the best year of his career by far with massive gains to both his power and contact, so there is some “career year” type risk here too. Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now. 2023 Projection: 59/20/66/.252/.317/.458/1 Prime Projection: 77/29/89/.264/.329/.482/2

3) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 23.5 – 2022 was the first speed bump in Davis’ career, and you can’t completely jump ship at the very first sign of struggle with a prospect as talented as Davis. You have to give him a chance to overcome adversity. He underwent back surgery and struggled at Triple-A both before and after the injury with a 77 wRC+ in 44 games at Triple-A. He played in the AFL where he teased his huge potential with a 1.048 OPS in 5 games, but was then shutdown with “general soreness” which they claim is unrelated to the back injury. No two ways about it, it was a disaster year, but years like this happen in baseball. He’s still an elite athlete at 6’4”, 210 pounds. I would be surprised if he didn’t come back with a big year in 2023. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.229/.304/.430/4 Prime Projection: 79/27/82/.253/.332/.470/8

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 20.9 – Alcantara didn’t have the huge statistical breakout, but he still hit damn well, slashing .273/.360/.451 with 15 homers, 14 steals, and a 24.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 112 games at Single-A. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6”, 188 pounds and is an excellent athlete, playing mostly in CF. He’s extremely easy to dream on with upside for days. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/81/.250/.327/.466/11

5) Hayden Wesneski CHC, RHP, 25.4 – Wesneski impressed in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.18/0.94/33/7 in 33 IP. He did it on the back of near elite control (5.3% BB%) and weak contact (84.5 MPH EV against). I’m still staying a bit hesitant because he didn’t show this level of control or production at Triple-A with a 3.92 ERA and 106/33 K/BB in 110.1 IP, and his stuff isn’t exactly overpowering with a 93.1 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a decent, but not elite 33.3% whiff%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and he understands the art of the pitching, so I think he’ll be a solid MLB starter, but I’m not sure he’s going to be a fantasy difference maker. 2023 Projection: 8/4.15/1.28/136 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.22/171 in 170 IP

6) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.11 – Canario has one of the most visually explosive swings in the minors. If a bazooka played baseball, it would swing like Canario. He demolished 37 homers in 125 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He has speed too with 23 steals. It’s the hit tool that is the issue. He had a 27.5% K% overall, and his BA tanked to .248 at Double-A, .231 at Triple-A, and .172 in the Dominican Winter League. Speaking of the Dominican Winter League, he suffered a serious injury on the bases which required surgery for a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder. His availability for the start of 2023 is in question. When healthy, I have no doubt he’ll do damage against any level of pitcher, but it just might come with a batting average that flirts with the Mendoza line. 2023 Projection: 28/10/33/.219/.297/.431/5 Prime Projection: 71/27/79/.232/.314/.458/10

7) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Horton underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2021, so he was just rounding into form during the 2nd half of 2022, resulting in him peaking during the College World Series with dominant outing after dominant outing. Plus mid 90’s heat with an at least plus slider is his game, and that combo gives him high upside with the floor of a high leverage reliever. He also throws a curve and change, and he hasn’t shown any major control issues in the short time he’s pitched in college (53.2 IP in his college career all coming this year). Chicago is clearly taking advantage of the lack of track record and betting on the upside. It’s your call if you want to do the same. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/180 in 163 IP

8) James Triantos CHC, 3B, 20.2 – Triantos has a short and quick righty swing that is made for contact. He had a 16.1%/7.7% K%/BB% with a .272 BA in 113 games at Single-A. The power just isn’t here yet with only 7 homers and a .386 slugging, and quite frankly, he’s already pretty thick. I’m sure he will add more power considering he’s barely 20 years old, but he’s definitely a hit tool first player. He’s not a burner, but he does have some speed, nabbing 20 bags in 23 attempts. It’s not my favorite profile to go after in fantasy, but he’s a safe prospect with solid across the board potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/18/66/.281/.342/.429/11

9) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 20.9 – Caissie didn’t have a huge statistical season with a 113 wRC+ and 11 homers in 105 games, but taking into account Chicago gave him an aggressive assignment to High-A as a 19 year old, it’s not bad at all. He’s the same age as Kevin Alcantara who they sent to Single-A for comparison. Caissie’s 6’4”, 190 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is a geared for both power and average, but he’ll have to cut down on the K’s to maximize both with a 28.6% K%. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/25/78/.248/.332/.452/4

10) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.5 – Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due. Ballesteros is built like a slightly taller, lefty swinging version of Alejandro Kirk, and his profile isn’t that far off from Kirk’s, except the hit tool isn’t quite on that level. He was a former high priced international signing who handled his business in 2021 in the DSL with a 128 wRC+ and 12.8%/16.6% K%/BB% in 48 games. He debuted in stateside rookie ball in 2022 with added power, jacking 7 homers in 32 games, while proving the plus plate approach is for real with a 17.3%/11.8% K%/BB%. He put the cherry on top of his season by making his full season debut and putting up a 109 wRC+ with a 21.7%/14% K%/BB% in 31 games as an 18 year old. The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/23/76/.270/.342/.462/1

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

With the signings of Koudai Senga to the Mets for 5 years, $75 million and Masataka Yoshida to the Red Sox for 5 years, $90 million, the question turns to when to jump on these guys in First Year Players Drafts. Well, I would argue the question should be if these guys should be included in off-season prospect drafts to begin with. They will be 30 and 29 years old this season. They should really be included in the MLB draft/auction. Including them in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, which is that you aren’t forced to choose between solid MLB vets and high upside teenagers. But I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy in First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter (Senga) or a solid OF bat (Yoshida). You can get that type of production in the MLB draft/auction. In very deep leagues where there might literally be nothing on the waiver wire, I can see taking either Senga or Yoshida as high as 3rd overall. Zero chance I’m passing on Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday for either of them in any size league. In shallow to medium size leagues, I wouldn’t start to consider Senga until after my Top 7 are off the board in my Top 43 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings, and Masataka until my Top 13 are off the board.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//TOP 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 28, 2022December 9, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. He ranked 62nd overall on A Top 104 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. It led to an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be a damn good pitcher in one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP

Hitters

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, but you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: 76/14/63/.268/.337/.413/14

Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury will only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, Samson style. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Either way, everything is trending in the wrong direction, and the Dodgers non tendering him this off-season really drives the point home on how far he’s fallen. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

Top 10 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and a plus slider (he mixes in a good curve too). His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The delivery isn’t super athletic either. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. Don’t be surprised if he wins that 5th rotation spot straight out of camp, and while the Dodgers could easily sign a vet, they have enough holes to fill on offense I think they might leave the spot open for a young gun. 2023 Projection: 8/3.85/1.26/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup, which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

4) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages’ 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

7) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft bump after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

8) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July at 257th overall, and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. He’s started to get more hype this off-season, but he should still come at a great price in 99% of leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

9) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – If Pepiot cracks the Dodgers rotation, this will look too low, because anybody in the Dodgers rotation is good enough for my fantasy rotation, but this is my bet that Miller and Stone will pass him on the depth chart. Not to mention Nastrini, Sheehan, and Frasso who all might be better than Pepiot too. He’s had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.92/1.32/81 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP (if he sticks with Dodgers, in another org, I would go 4+ ERA)

10) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

Just Missed

11) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1

12) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 23.4

13) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 14, 2022November 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 7, 2022November 11, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Seattle Mariners 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Seattle Mariners 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 59 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Hitters

Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play this game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what Julio did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – Prospects can fill your heart, but the career Kelenic is having is why we curse this game. There is nothing more painful in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him implode in the majors. And implode is exactly what Jarred did, slashing .168/.251/.338 with 21 homers, 11 steals, and a 30.0%/9.3% K%/BB% in his 147 game career. He actually managed to get worse in year 2 with a .534 OPS, 33.7% K%, and 55 wRC+ in 54 games. I wrote in the Torkelson blurb for the Tigers Team Report that I’m almost more encouraged that Tork struggled at Triple-A too considering he ripped up Triple-A in 2021. It means it just might have been a down year, which happens to almost everyone in baseball. If he went right back to destroying Triple-A, I might think he has some kind of fatal flaw vs. MLB pitchers. Enter Jarred Kelenic, who continually gets sent back down to Triple-A and goes right back to raking. He was starting to show the weakest of pulses in September with 3 homes and a 1.107 OPS in the first 7 games of the month, but it was false hope as he closed out the season going 1 for 23. Even his upside isn’t what it used to be as he now has below average speed. He’s still only 23 years old, and he has nowhere to go but up (although I said that last year too), but his name value will still probably push his acquisition cost up higher than I would be willing to go. I’m staying away. 2023 Projection: 53/17/61/.228/.299/.405/9

Cal Raleigh SEA, C, 26.4 – Raleigh became one of the premier power hitting catchers in the majors, smashing 27 homers which was tied for first with Daulton Varsho. They weren’t cheapies either as he crushed the ball with a 90.9/94.8 MPH AVG/FB EV and 22.5 degree launch. His 114 MPH Max EV was in the top 6% of the league. The high launch angle combined with a high strikeout rate (29.4% K%) is going to tank his batting average (.211 BA), so he’s basically Mike Zunino 2.0, although his strikeout problems aren’t nearly as bad as Zunino’s. 2023 Projection: 57/25/71/.225/.304/.462/2

Starting Pitchers

George Kirby SEA, RHP, 25.2 – Kirby dominated in his MLB debut with elite control (4.1% BB%) of a legitimate 6 pitch mix (4-seam, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, change). He threw each pitch at least 8% of the time, but the fastball is the money maker, throwing it 45.4% of the time and putting up a negative 18 run value on it (9th best in baseball). It led to a pitching line of 3.39/1.21/133/22 in 130 IP. As advertised from his prospect days, none of his secondaries are true out pitches, and his 24.5% K% isn’t standout with a below average 21.2% whiff%, but that is one hell of a rookie season. I’m only expecting improvements from here. 2023 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/178 in 170 IP

Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 25.4 – Gilbert’s profile is very similar to Kirby’s, except slightly worse. He also has excellent control (6.4% BB%) of a heavily used 96.1 MPH fastball (53.9% usage). He put up a negative 12 run value on the pitch which was 25th overall. It led to a pitching line of 3.20/1.18/174/49 in 185.2 IP. None of his secondaries are truly standout, and while his changeup performed the best, he only went to it 8% of the time. The biggest red flag is that his stuff is mighty hittable with a 91 MPH EV against (bottom 3% of the league) and 118 MPH Max EV against (bottom 1%). His 4.11 xERA was much worst than his 3.20 ERA. K/BB numbers are still king at the end of the day, and his control will ensure a good WHIP even if the ERA rises. I would also bet on improvements to his secondaries as he already tinkered with his slider this year, throwing it 3.5 MPH faster. 2023 Projection: 13/3.58/1.16/187 in 190 IP

Bullpen

Andres Munoz SEA, Setup, 24.2 – Munoz is the top setup man to own in dynasty, and Seattle has been malleable with their bullpen in the past, so he could easily lock down a share of the closer job with Paul Sewald. He throws a 100.2 MPH fastball with a silly elite slider that put up a 50.8% whiff% and .162 xwOBA. It led to a 38.7% K% and 41.8% whiff%. If that wasn’t enough, he also has near elite control with a 6% BB% and he induced weak contact at near elite rates with a 86.2 MPH EV against. He had a 2.49 ERA with a 96/15 K/BB in 65 IP, and his 1.84 xERA was even better. The guy literally doesn’t have a weakness and has a real argument to be crowned the best reliever in baseball. 2023 Projection: 5/2.39/0.93/91/12 saves in 62 IP

Top 10 Seattle Mariners Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – Harry Ford and Logan O’Hoppe were my top 2 prospect catcher targets for 2022, and both were big hits. Granted, you could have thrown a rock and hit a catcher prospect breakout with Endy Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, Edgar Quero, Diego Cartaya, Ford, O’Hoppe etc … all having big seasons. Ford used his lightning quick bat, plus speed, and mature plate approach to put up a 132 wRC+ in 104 games at Single-A. He slashed .274/.425/.439 with 11 homers, 23 steals, and a 23%/17.6% K%/BB%. The power didn’t pop, but his home ballpark is one of the worst for homers, and I have no doubts about his long term power as he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He hit 8 homers in 53 games on the road and 3 in 51 games at home. He’s a plus athlete who could play other position, so he could be the type to retain catcher eligibility while still playing 150+ games. He’s still a major buy for me in 2023. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.268/.350/.463/16

2) Gabriel Gonzalez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Gonzalez might not have the highest upside as he’s not a huge tools guy. He doesn’t have monster power or speed, and he’s not a hulking human being at about 5’11”, but what he does have is monster baseball skills. He destroyed the DSL in 2021 with a 141 wRC+ in 54 games, then he crushed stateside rookie ball in 2022 with a 164 wRC+ in 35 games, before making his full season debut and barely slowing down with a 14%/8.7% K%/BB% and 116 wRC+ in 32 games at Single-A. He has a plus hit tool with near elite contact rates his entire career, and there is plus power potential especially considering the quality of contact. He’s not a burner but he should be able to nab a handful of steals as well. He’s one of the safest teenage prospects in the game and it’s not like there isn’t some upside in here either. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 85/25/85/.278/.343/.473/9

3) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.10 – Clase had a big time breakout season, but nobody seemed to notice. He slashed .267/.374/.463 with 13 homers, 55 steals, and a 26.7%/13% K%/BB% in 107 games at Single-A. He has elite speed and there is some real juice in his bat with him crushing some absolute bombs. He’s only 5’8”, 150 pounds, so he’s not going to be a huge power hitter, but there should be enough to let his speed shine. The high K% adds risk which prevents his value from really exploding, but he mitigates that with high a walk rate. Clase is the type I hope falls right into my lap late in off-season prospect drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/14/60/.246/.328/.398/31

4) Cole Young SEA, SS, 19.8 – Selected 21st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Young is kinda similar to Edwin Arroyo (selected 48th by Seattle in 2021) in the sense he doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen, but there is still an exciting set of tools led by the plus hit. He did damage in his pro debut, slashing .367/.423/.517 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 8/8 K/BB in 17 games split between rookie ball and Single-A (he actually performed better at Single-A than rookie). He’s a very solid 6’0”, 180 pounds with above average speed and the ability to put a sting into the ball, although his well over 50% GB% will limit his power. It’s not the highest upside profile, but it’s a safe one with the potential to contribute in every category ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/17/62/.274/.340/.428/15

5) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.6 – I fell in love with Montes’ graceful lefty swing from a 6’3”, 210 pound frame last off-season, and he didn’t disappoint in 2022, slashing .284/.422/.585 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 33.2%/15.7% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. It’s legitimate 40+ homer potential, but I can’t deny the 33.2% K% against the very weak DSL pitching isn’t concerning. The high walk rate shows that some of that was because of his extreme patience, but it gives him major hit tool risk, and as a corner outfielder, his bat will have to hit close to it’s ceiling to lock in playing time. I’m still betting on the talent long term, but not as much as I would have with better K rates. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/34/84/.238/.320/.502/4

6) Felnin Celesten SEA, SS, 17.6 – Expected to sign for over $4 million, Celesten has that super smooth lefty swing (he also hits righty) in the mold of a Marcelo Mayer, George Valera, and Zac Veen. It just screams offensive potential. He’s also an excellent athlete with plus speed. We’ve seen plenty of international prospects with smooth swings just not hit enough against more advanced competition, but it’s hard not to fall in love with the swing and tools. Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.268/.336/.470/18

7) Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 24.7 – Miller showed major control problems in 2021 in the SEC in his first year as a starter with a 5.9 BB/9 in 56.2 IP, but Seattle took a shot on his big stuff in the 4th round, and it paid off in 2022. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.04/163/46 in 133.2 IP at mostly High-A and Double-A. He pitched just as well at each level. He throws gas with a mid 90’s fastball and has 3 quality secondaries in his slider, change, and curve. He certainly still has some reliever risk, but there is real fantasy upside here, especially considering this was only his 2nd year as a starter. 2023 Projection: 3/4.19/1.34/51 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.76/1.30/168 in 160 IP

8) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.10 – Hancock was art of pitching his way through Double-A with a 2.19 ERA and 64/21 K/BB in his first 70 IP, but the lack strikeouts caught up with him in the end with a 7.62 ERA and 28/17 K/BB in his final 28.1 IP. His 3.75 ERA was still solid overall, but the 22.3%/9.2% K%/BB% and 5.43 xFIP doesn’t look as good. He has the pedigree as the former 6th overall pick in the draft, and he looks the part when you watch him with 3 electric pitches (mid 90’s heat, change, slider), but the numbers say back end starter. I’ll split the difference and put a #4 starter tag on him. 2023 Projection: 2/4.42/1.38/56 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.27/158 in 170 IP

9) Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 25.9 – Marlowe is in that Joey Wiemer class of prospect. He’s an older prospect with a plus power/speed combo and major hit tool issues. He slashed .287/.377/.487 with 23 homers, 42 steals, and a 27.0%/10.7% K%/BB% in 133 games at mostly Double-A. He made it to Triple-A for 13 games and his K% spiked to 38.3%, which isn’t a great sign. He’s older than Wiemer and the power/speed combo isn’t as big as Wiemer, but these types of prospects give you legitimate upside without having to draft a teenager who is likely at least 3-4 years away. I doubt Seattle will just hand him a starting job, so he will have to scratch and claw for playing time with a very short leash when he does get his shot. He also hits righties significantly better than lefties, so a platoon role is in play. 2023 Projection: 19/5/20/.221/.290/.398/6 Prime Projection: 51/16/60/.236/.316/.431/12

10) Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B/3B, 22.4 – Selected 58th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Locklear put up video game numbers in the Atlantic 10, slashing .402/.542/.799 with 20 homers, 6 steals, and a 25/47 K/BB in 62 games. He smashed in pro ball too with 7 homers and a 21.8% K% in 29 games at Single-A. The power is very real at 6’3”, 210 pounds and he also has a good feel to hit with a relatively short righty swing. The swing isn’t particularly athletic, he has below average speed and he’s likely a 1B long term, so the bat will have to hit it’s absolute ceiling to hold down a full time job. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/22/77/.254/.321/.466/2

11) Axel Sanchez SEA, SS, 20.4 – Sanchez looks cool as a cucumber in the box before exploding on the ball. He has easy athleticism and was known more for his glove than his bat prior to this year. The bat really shined in 2022 though, slashing .283/.365/.510 with 10 homers, 13 steals, and a 24.9%/9.1% K%/BB% split between rookie (117 wRC+ in 27 games), Single-A (155 wRC+ in 33 games), and High-A (38 wRC+ in 8 games). There is still plenty of refinement needed, but he reminds me a bit of Jeremy Pena. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/20/72/.250/.322/.428/13

12) Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.5 – Arroyo was a high priced international signing who was known for his plus hit tool and mature approach. He came exactly as advertised in his pro debut, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 16.6%/13.6% K%/BB% in 49 DSL games. He’s similar to Gabriel Gonzalez in that he isn’t a huge tools guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds, although his power potential probably doesn’t rise quite to Gonzalez’ level. I want to love Arroyo even more, but it’s hard for me to fly a guy up my rankings who doesn’t have huge upside, is a long way off from the majors, and hasn’t even debuted stateside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/21/73/.273/.339/.447/6

13) Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 24.1 – Dollard isn’t a big velocity guy with a low 90’s fastball, but he mitigates that by going to his plus slider very often (he also throws a curve and change) and by hitting his spots with at least plus control (5.4% BB%). He put up a pitching line of 2.25/0.95/131/31 in 144 IP at Double-A. He’s not a big strikeout guy, and his .248 BABIP with a 4.66 xFIP shows he needed some luck to put up those numbers. Despite his age, he’s still relatively projectable at 6’3”, 195 pounds, so if he’s able to add velocity in his mid 20’s, he could easily beat his current back to mid rotation projection: 2023 Projection: 1/4.46/1.31/23 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.26/152 in 165 IP

14) Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 23.2 – Woo returned from Tommy John surgery in June and immediately showed the big stuff is back with a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a changeup that flashes plus. He was a strikeout machine in the lower minors with a 85/22 K/BB (4.11 ERA) in 57 IP spread across 3 levels (rookie, A, A+). He’s now destroying the AFL with a 0.84 ERA and 16/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP. I generally discount AFL performance, but one of the exceptions is from a pitcher who was out for most of the season. You can’t fake big time stuff, and Woo certainly has big time stuff. This off-season is definitely the time to get in on Woo before his value explodes in 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/161 in 155 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

As I alluded to in the Jonatan Clase blurb, not every target of mine is someone I’m necessarily going to really stick my neck out to grab. If you’re constantly reaching for all of your favorite underrated targets, you’re basically eliminating the excess value they should provide to you. The value comes from letting that player fall right into your lap. Gaming the draft is a big part of fantasy success, and you have to risk losing a guy. If you miss out on them, c’est la vie. I certainly have some targets I need to have and am willing to go above and beyond to get, but you have to pick your spots.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 14, 2022March 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2022 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

The release of my 5×5 AVG 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings continues today with the Top 500 Prospects Rankings. I released the Top 100 2022 First Year Player Draft Rankings yesterday. Here is the Top 500 Prospects Rankings for 2022 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

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-OBP TOP 600 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
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-POSITION BY POSITION TARGET ARTICLES
–TOP 100 2022 REDRAFT PROSPECTS RANKINGS
–PREDICTING THE 2023 TOP 50 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS
–STRATEGY/TARGET ARTICLES FOR SHALLOW AND DEEP LEAGUES
–ANALYZING MY 18 TEAM FYPD W/ GENERAL STRATEGY THOUGHTS
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND UPDATED RANKINGS ALL SEASON LONG

Tier 1

1) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11

Tier 2

3) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.7 – Tork is a 6’1”, 220 pound bull with a swing geared towards launching bombs. And that is all he’s done in his baseball career, crushing 25 homers in 55 games as a freshman in the Pac 12, ripping 23 homers as a sophomore, and now smashing 30 bombs in his pro debut over 121 games split pretty evenly across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He does all this with an advanced plate approach (13% BB% at Triple-A) and without any major strikeout worries (20.3% K% at Triple-A). 2022 Projection: 72/27/74/.252/.337/.485/3 Prime Projection: 96/35/105/.275/.372/.533/3

4) Riley Greene DET, OF, 21.6 – Greene is 6’3”, 200 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is geared for power and average. He just steamrolled through the upper levels of the minors as a 20 year old, slashing .301/.387/.534 with 24 homers, 16 steals (in 17 attempts), and a 27.4%/11.3% K%/BB% split between Double-A and Triple-A. Stolen bases weren’t supposed to be a major part of his game, but he obviously is a very savvy base stealer as he is 21 for 22 on the bases in his pro career. The K% is high, but I’m betting on that coming down as he gains more experience. 2022 Projection: 49/14/45/.255/.330/.462/5 Prime Projection: 102/30/98/.281/.364/.518/10

5) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 22.5 – Davis is 6’4”, 210 pounds with easy power and no problems keeping the ball off the ground. He smacked 19 homers in 99 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). Like many guys this tall, he has some strikeout issues with a 28.7% K%, and while he will definitely chip in with steals, he went 6 for 10 in 76 Double-A games and he didn’t attempt a steal in 15 Triple-A games. The upside is very high, but there is still some risk here too. 2022 Projection: 48/17/55/.242/.313/.441/7 Prime Projection: 88/33/99/.261/.338/.510/11

6) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 21.6 – A fractured tibia and sprained MCL ended Abrams season after just 42 games. He proved his plus hit tool and speed will transfer against advanced competition at Double-A, slashing .296/.363/.420 with 2 homers, 13 steals (in 15 attempts), and a 19.7%/8.2% K%/BB%. His power isn’t there yet, and there is a chance it will never be a major part of his game, but he still looks pretty skinny to me at 6’2”, 185 pounds and don’t think those man muscles have come in yet. The power will tick up in time. 2022 Projection: 14/2/9/.265/.318/.402/5 Prime Projection: 95/18/75/.288/.342/.437/27

7) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 22.4 – Rodriguez is the total package with the potential for 4 plus pitches and above average control. He put up a 45.5%/5.7% K%/BB% in 23.1 IP at High-A and then followed that up with a 39%/7.1% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP at Double-A. He’s the #1 pitching prospect in the game. 2022 Projection: 4/3.88/1.21/77 in 69 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.32/1.08/228 in 195 IP

8) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 22.10 – Baz’ control took two huge steps forward, going from well below average to near elite with a 1.7% BB% at Double-A, 6.2% at Triple-A, and 6.1% in the majors. He sacrificed nothing to do it, throwing an elite 97 MPH fastball that put up 30.4% whiff%. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his slider (40.7% whiff%) and curve (50% whiff%), while his changeup lags behind. He’s in a two man race with Grayson Rodriguez for the top pitching prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection: 9/3.78/1.20/148 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.35/1.07/220 in 187 IP

9) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 24.2 – Rutschman dominated the upper levels of the minors with an elite plate approach (90/79 K/BB in 123 games) and plus power (23 homers). He has an argument to be the #1 overall prospect in real baseball because of his at least plus catcher defense, but in fantasy, being a catcher only causes more problems with wear and tear and more days off. He should open the 2022 season as Baltimore’s starting catcher, but service time manipulation might also come into play. 2022 Projection: 69/22/63/.262/.341/.449/2 Prime Projection: 86/27/84/.276/.364/.493/3

10) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – It took only 2 MLB games for Cruz to put the entire league on notice. He went 3 for 9 with 1 homer and 4/0 K/BB, but it was the elite exit velocity readings that really popped. He had a silly 100.5 MPH average exit velocity, and he hit a 118.2 MPH line drive single that was the 7th hardest hit ball all season. At 6’7”, 210 pounds, Cruz’ raw power is in rarified air. He’s had high groundball rates his entire career, but he’s slowly been improving them, putting up a 47.3% GB% in 62 games at Double-A and a 31.3% GB% in 6 games at Triple-A. Speaking of his 6 game taste of Triple-A, he went nuclear with 5 homers and a 5/8 K/BB. Oh yea, he also has plus speed with 19 steals in 22 attempts. There will inevitably be some swing and miss to his game, and I don’t think he is completely out of the woods with his high groundball rates, but Cruz very well might have the highest pure upside of anybody in the minors. 2022 Projection:72/24/81/.257/.320/.468/17 Prime Projection: 92/30/101/.272/.335/.518/16

11) Zac Veen COL, OF, 20.4 – Veen is 6’4”, 190 pounds with a violent lefty swing that is made to hit rockets. He’s pretty skinny now, so if he puts on weight, his power upside is scary. He backed up the hype in his pro debut, slashing .301/.399/.501 with 15 homers, 36 steals in 53 attempts, and a 26.3%/13.4% K%/BB% in 106 games at Single-A. You have to throw out the steal numbers because of the Single-A rule changes, and he also wasn’t very successful, but seeing he loves to run this much is a good sign. He has elite fantasy upside, especially in Coors. I’m buying high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 99/32/103/.277/.358/.519/13

12) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 20.11 – The power breakout came well before schedule as Volpe cranked 27 homers in 109 games split between Single-A and High-A. The Yankees drafted Volpe 30th overall in 2019 based on his hit hit tool, speed, and defense, so the power explosion puts Volpe in elite prospect territory. If you play in a shallow to medium sized league where you can’t pick up prospects during the season, Volpe should very likely be the top pick in your off-season prospect draft. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 92/26/89/.278/.352/.481/15

13) Noelvi Marte SEA, SS, 20.5 – Marte has a powerful righty swing that is both under control and lightening quick. It reminds me a bit of Manny Machado. He showed a mature plate approach (22.2%/12.1% K%/BB%), plus power (17 homers in 99 games), and speed (23 for 30 on the bases) in his full season debut as a 19 year old. He has the upside to be a perennial first rounder in fantasy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 91/33/103/.276/.362/.547/12

14) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Shoulder surgery ended Carroll’s season after just 7 games, but he managed to make such a great impression in those games, along with strong reports from the 2020 alt site, that he should still be considered a near elite prospect. He’s an explosive player with an at least plus contact/speed combo. His power has been underrated even from before he was drafted because he is only 5’10”, but he puts a sting into the baseball. Shoulder injuries are known to sap power, but he is young enough that you have to assume a full recovery. As high as his value is now, it might shoot through the roof not far into 2022. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 89/20/78/.283/.367/.463/28

Tier 3

15) Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell dominated Single-A (139 wRC+) with a plus plate approach (17.2%/13.3% K%/BB%) and speed (31 steals), but he only hit 7 homers in 92 games with a 52.1% GB%. He then went to High-A for 18 games and proved he has the ability to make adjustments to get to his power, jacking 2 homers with a 32.7% GB%. The K% rose with the power to 28.7%, but it’s still a good sign he will eventually be able to put it all together. He’s 6’2’’, 195 pounds, so while he is expected to be a hit tool, speed guy, I wouldn’t rule out a power explosion. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/18/74/.277/.358/.446/23

16) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Casas in 6’4”, 252 pounds with double plus raw power and a mature approach at the plate. He put up a 19.1%/15.4% in 86 games at mostly Double-A (9 games at Triple-A). He has a textbook lefty swing with very little movement, and he rarely sells out to get to his power. His homer totals don’t jump out at you with only 14 homers, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 42.8% GB% (34.6% GB% at Triple-A), so even if he doesn’t make adjustments to unlock more power, he will still hit plenty of homers while maintaining a high BA. He’s in the mold of a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt if he hits his ceiling. 2022 Projection: 36/10/41/.253/.334/.469/2 Prime Projection: 96/32/102/.276/.365/.515/4

17) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 22.8 – Greene is a mountain of a man at 6’5”, 230 pounds and he puts that frame to good use by consistently pumping in upper 90’s fastballs that reach 100+ MPH often. Even his changeup is 90+ MPH and it has the potential to be a nasty pitch with good drop and tail action. The slider was much improved this year and has the potential to be a plus pitch. He used all of those weapons to put up a pitching line of 3.30/1.18/139/38 in 106.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. With Sonny Gray traded to Minnesota and possibly more trades to come, it isn’t out of the question for Greene to open the season in the rotation. 2022 Projection: 8/3.88/1.32/140 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.39/1.12/222 in 185 IP

18) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 24.2 – Lowe blew up at Triple-A, slashing .291/.381/.535 with 22 homers, 26 steals (in 26 attempts), and a 26.2%/13% K%/BB% in 111 games. I’ve been high on him since his 2019 breakout because he is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 205 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and high walk rates. Even though his K% remained high, his hit tool took a step forward this year, which is the one thing that could hold him back. 2022 Projection: 23/7/21/.237/.310/.428/6 Prime Projection: 84/24/76/.256/.338/.467/16

19) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 20.4 – Alvarez is a bulldog at the plate at 5’10”, 233 pounds with massive raw power and a precocious plate approach. He put up a silly 227 wRC+ with a 10.4%/22.4% K%/BB% in 15 games at the age appropriate Single-A before he went to High-A and bashed 22 homers in 82 games. This is a do it all, middle of the order bat who has a good chance of sticking at catcher. Rutschman is going to have some competition for that top spot in a couple years. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/30/92/.272/.355/.495/4

20) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 24.2 – A stress fracture in his foot delayed the start of Jung’s season, but he came back angry, demolishing the upper levels of the minors. He slashed .326/.398/.592 with 19 homers and a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. Both of his home ballparks juice up homers, but he was even more dominant on the road. He has at least plus power and he should be able to hit for a pretty good average too. He underwent shoulder surgery in late February is expected to be out until at least mid August. 2022 Projection: 7/2/9/.255/.328/.461/0 Prime Projection: 86/29/90/.272/.344/.496/3

21) George Valera CLE, OF, 21.5 – Valera’s lefty swing is so sweet it could give a guy diabetes, and he used it to abuse High-A pitchers with 19 homers and a .910 OPS in 86 games. He also put up an excellent 22.1%/20.9% K%/BB% that led to a .405 OBP. He met his match at Double-A with a 30% K%, but he still walked at a good clip (11% BB%) and ended up with an above average 104 wRC+ in 23 games. He has average speed too and nabbed 11 bags on the year, so he should contribute in every category. He’s a near elite stud who I don’t think is being valued quite that way, although he surely gets a lot of love. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 92/28/91/.271/.362/.497/7

22) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 22.10 – Gonzalez went from an extremely hitter friendly environment in college to an extremely hitter friendly environment in the pros. Pitt’s High-A ballpark and the AFL are both extreme hitter’s havens. He unsurprisingly beat up on inferior competition in these parks with a .950 OPS in 80 games at High-A and a 1.032 OPS in 19 AFL games. His 27.4% K% at High-A is really the only thing to quibble with. Gonzales’ .950 OPS is actually the worst he’s ever done in any league going back to his freshman year (including the Cape Cod League), which is remarkable. All this guy has done is dominate. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 93/25/82/.273/.344/.479/11

23) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 24.2 – Brujan couldn’t maintain his early season power surge of 7 homers in his first 16 games (12 homers in 103 games at Triple-A), but his power definitely took a step forward this year. He combines that uptick in power with an elite plate approach (15.4%/11.1% K%/BB%) and plus speed (44 for 52 on the bases). He played all over the field (2B, SS, 3B, OF), and Tampa loves to move guys around, so Brujan is setting up to be the ultimate multi-position eligibility player who will see the field almost everyday at peak. 2022 Projection:48/7/39/.262/.326/.398/16 Prime Projection: 92/14/66/.283/.355/.423/30

24) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman’s hit tool took a huge step forward this year. He brought his K% down to 22% in the upper levels of the minors (29.7% in 2019), and he didn’t sacrifice much power with 25 homers in 119 games. The ingredients are there for him to become a complete middle of the order masher. 2022 Projection: 38/12/36/.248/.312/.445/2 Prime Projection: 83/28/90/.266/.339/.491/4

25) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – Walker has huge raw power at 6’5”, 220 pounds, and he got to a lot of it in his pro debut with 25 doubles, 4 triples, and 14 homers in 82 games split between Single-A and High-A. He’s also a good athlete for his size as he snagged 14 bags. While his plate approach regressed at High-A (27%/6.1% K%/BB%), it looked more advanced than expected at the age appropriate Single-A (17.2%/14.8% K%/BB%). He’s far from a finished product, but there is star upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/29/93/.262/.344/.502/8

26) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Kirby battled shoulder fatigue during the season which limited him to 67.2 IP, but he cruised in those innings with a pitching line of 2.53/1.08/80/15 split between High-A and Double-A. He dominates with a double plus upper 90’s fastball that he has elite control over. He throws 3 secondaries (slider, change, curve) that are all about average right now, and he’ll need one of them to tick up to plus in order to reach his top of the rotation ceiling. 2022 Projection:5/4.08/1.22/93 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.69/1.13/202 in 183 IP

27) Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 20.6 – It was an up and down season for Luciano for with more downs than ups. He started off by struggling hard in Spring Training with a .374 OPS in 29 AB which he carried over into the first few weeks of the season at Single-A. We then thought he put those struggles behind him when he started destroying the level, finishing with 18 homers, a .930 OPS and a 22.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 70 games, but the struggles returned at High-A which has bled into the Fall League. He had a 37.2%/6.9% K%/BB% with a .577 OPS in 36 games at High-A and now has a 32.2% K% with a .730 OPS in 21 Fall games. His numbers at the age appropriate Single-A take precedence, which is why I still consider him an elite prospect, but he is obviously not close to a finished product right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/33/94/.269/.345/.526/7

28) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 20.2 – Matos has that perfect combination of floor and upside. His 12.4% K% in 109 games at Single-A is elite, and he combines that with plus speed (21 steals) and developing power (15 homers). At worst we are looking at a moderate power/speed combo with a good average, and at best there is a next level power breakout which will put him in the land of the elite. His plate approach does still need some refinement with a 5.7% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/21/77/.285/.333/.455/16

29) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 19.2 – Dominguez didn’t exactly blow the doors off in his pro debut, but he held serve with a 105 wRC+ in 49 games in full season ball. And putting up a .346 OBP is actually pretty damn impressive considering his age and the fact he had zero pro experience before this season. I’m still all in on the upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/28/93/.269/.362/.503/16

30) Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 20.4 – I’ve been high on Martinez for a few years now and it paid off big time in 2021 with a power explosion. He cracked 28 homers in 98 games split between Single-A and High-A. He performed better at the age appropriate Single-A (149 wRC+) than he did at High-A (99 wRC+), but he actually improved his K% after jumping levels from 26.1% to 22.4%, which is a great sign. Martinez has the upside to become a slugging middle the order bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/32/98/.263/.338/.508/5

31) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 20.4 – A back injury ended Soderstrom’s season after just 57 games, but it was a damn good 57 games, slashing .306/.390/.568 with 12 homers, 2 steals, and a 24%/10.6% K%/BB% at Single-A. He’s a complete hitter with a simple and powerful lefthanded swing. There is no guarantee he sticks behind the plate, but that would probably be better off for fantasy. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.276/.352/.487/4

32) Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 21.11 – Thomas was putting together a damn fine season at Double-A with a 134 wRC+, 10 homers and 8 steals in 72 games before going nuclear at Triple-A with a 168 wRC+, 8 homers, and 5 steals in 34 games. In spite of the great numbers and age relative to level success, I’m still a little concerned about his ultimate power/speed upside. His stolen base success rate has been very poor (40 for 65 in 276 career games), and he hits the ball on the ground a lot (55.5% GB% at Double-A and 50.4% at Triple-A). He’s shaping up to be a guy who will contribute in every category, but the upside seems a little capped to me right now. 2022 Projection: 39/7/33/.265/.318/.412/7 Prime Projection: 82/18/68/.285/.343/.441/16

33) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, SS, 21.10 – Peraza started lifting the ball much more in 2022 and it led to a power breakout with 18 homers in 115 games. He did progressively get worse as he climbed the minor league ladder (.917 OPS in High-A/.815 in Double-A/.715 in Triple-A), and his stolen base percentage and BB% also plummeted when he got into the upper levels, but the ingredients are there for him to be an impact player in 5×5 AVG leagues in particular. 2022 Projection: 23/2/18/.258/.301/.409/4 Prime Projection: 86/20/81/.272/.331/.444/18

34) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 19.4 – Selected 4th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mayer stays loose and easy in his stance before unleashing a vicious lefty swing that has monster offensive potential written all over it. He did show some swing and miss in his pro debut with a 25.2% K% in 26 games, but he has a mature plate approach (14% BB%) and a swing that is geared for both power and average. He put up a 121 wRC+. Lack of speed is the only issue for fantasy, and it is the reason he is far from a lock for the top pick in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/25/88/.274/.346/.478/8

35) Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 18.11 – Drafted 16th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Watson’s upside is high as anyone’s in the draft with lightening quick bat speed and a plus power/speed combo from the left side. He only fell to 16th overall due to signing bonus demands (he ended up with the 10th highest bonus). While he didn’t show much power in his 9 game pro debut (60% GB% with 0 homers), he did steal 4 bags and had an excellent 16.7%/19% K%/BB% in an obviously very small sample. This is the type of upside you look for when drafting at the top of first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/23/83/.268/.342/.458/18

36) Jack Leiter TEX, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Leiter can dominate with just his mid 90’s fastball, but he also has a deep repertoire of pitches, throwing a 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, curve (best secondary), slider and change. He understands the art of pitching which is no surprise considering his dad is Al Leiter. He’s only 6 feet, and his control can waver, but it didn’t stop him from putting up a dominant pitching line of 2.13/0.85/179/45 in 110 IP in the SEC. In a year where there isn’t a clear cut top pick in first year player drafts, Leiter’s claim to that top spot is as good as anyone’s. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 15/3.48/1.17/218 in 185 IP

37) MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.4 – To say Melendez’ power broke out this year would be a massive understatement, it completely detonated with 41 homers in 123 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He has a lightening quick, uppercut lefty swing that looks designed to smack homers. Maybe even more impressive than the power, he brought his K% all the way down to 21.7% after he put up a 39.4% at High-A in 2019. To top it all off he had a 14.1% BB%. Kansas City started playing Melendez at 3B a little bit just to find a way to get his bat into the lineup with Perez holding down the catcher spot in Kansas City. 2022 Projection: 28/10/31/.246/.325/.452/1 Prime Projection: 73/30/81/.257/.338/.476/2

38) Nick Pratto KCR, 1B, 23.6 – The zombie apocalypse might be coming because Nick Pratto was dead and buried after putting up a .588 OPS in 2019, but here he is running roughshod over the upper levels of the minors in 2021, slashing .265/.385/.602 with 36 homers, 12 steals (in 17 attempts), and a 28.8%/15.2% K%/BB%. He has an explosive, uppercut lefty swing that produces tons of flyballs, and while he’s not that fast, he’s ran a lot throughout his career. The flyball and high strikeout rates give him a very low batting average floor, but the power and patience is worth that risk. 2022 Projection: 62/19/66/.236/.318/.467/5 Prime Projection: 86/29/91/.250/.340/.500/7

39) Austin Martin MIN, OF, 23.0 – Martin went straight to Double-A in his pro debut and proved the advanced plate approach will transfer with a 19.9%/14.4% K%/BB% in 93 games. His lack of power is the talk of the town, but his HR/FB ratio raised to a more normal level after the trade to Minnesota with a 10.3% mark compared to a 4.5% pre trade, and I don’t see any reason why he won’t improve that area of his game as he matures and gains more experience in pro ball. I never considered him a big power hitter anyway, and he still seems on track to be a strong across the board contributor at peak. I would buy his dip in value. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 87/21/79/.277/.354/.453/12

40) Hedbert Perez MIL, OF, 19.0 – Perez smashed through rookie ball in 32 games with 6 homers and a 148 wRC+ before his raw plate approach got the best of him after being promoted to full season ball for 16 games (25/1 K/BB). He has a quick and powerful lefthanded swing that is oozing with upside. He’s fast, but he didn’t run all that much, stealing only 2 bags on 2 attempts in 48 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/30/91/.264/.337/.502/12

41) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 22.10 – Missed all of 2021 after undergoing surgery for a torn ACL in February. When healthy, Lewis is an explosive player with a plus power/speed combo and good contact rates, but needs to work on his plate approach. Considering how young he is, I would bet on him returning to full health and use the injury as a buying opportunity. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/23/77/.266/.326/.450/14

42) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 18.4 – Hernandez was my #1 international prospect heading into 2021, and he lived up to the hype in his pro debut, slashing .285/.398/.424 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20.4%/15.7% K%/BB% in 47 games in the DSL. I fell in love with his explosive swing from Youtube videos, and at 6’2”, 175 pounds, he’s a good bet to grow into plus power, although he will have to raise his 56.5% GB% to get to all it (he has plenty of time to do that). He also has plus speed and showed a very mature approach at the plate. He has star upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/88/.274/.353/.483/16

43) Brady House WAS, SS, 18.10 – Selected 11th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, House is a big physical hitter at 6’4”, 215 pounds who has double plus raw power and takes monster hacks at the dish with quick bat speed. He ripped 4 homers in his 16 game pro debut. He also has a mature plate approach and is a good athlete. There is a legitimate argument for him to go 1st overall in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/28/92/.268/.339/.492/7

44) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Drafted 6th overall, Lawlar has a relatively simple, quick swing that he uses to make tons of contact with the ability to lift the ball. He has plus speed and the power should develop naturally to above average at the least. A shoulder injury that required surgery ended his pro debut after just two games, which is just enough of a bump in the road for me to move him down a few spots on my draft board. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/21/79/.268/.335/.448/17

45) Aaron Ashby MIL, LHP, 23.9 – Ashby showed completely devastating stuff in his MLB debut with a 96.5 MPH sinker, a slider that put up a 42% whiff% (.159 xwOBA), and changeup that put up a 34.6% whiff% (.275 xwOBA). His control actually improved in the majors with a 9% BB% (11.6% at Triple-A). There is definitely reliever risk, but even in a relief role Ashby could be a major help to your fantasy team. 2022 Projection: 6/3.73/1.31/115 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.61/1.28/195 in 165 IP

46) Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.5 – Contreras came into 2021 with a low 90’s fastball and was known for his advanced feel for pitching. His fastball then exploded this year, averaging 96.3 MPH in his 3 IP MLB debut. He combines that mid 90’s fastball with two potentially plus breaking balls and a lesser used developing changeup. It led to a strikeout explosion with a 34.9% K% in 54.1 IP at Double-A. He did all this while maintaining his plus control with 5.5% BB%. He was just as dominant in his 1 start at Triple-A and his 1 start in the majors. A forearm strain kept him out for 2 months, which is just a reminder of how risky pitching prospects are. 2022 Projection: 6/4.03/1.28/124 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.65/1.18/201 in 175 IP

47) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 21.3 – Strikeouts are king in fantasy, and Espino’s strikeout numbers are off the charts. Well, maybe they are still on the charts because virtual charts are infinite I guess. He had a 45.1% K% in 49 IP at High-A (35.6% in 42.2 IP at Single-A). He throws a 4 and 2 seam fastball that both can hit triple digits and uses a plus slider as his best secondary. He also mixes in a curve and change that flash plus. This is a strong dude who just deadlifted 545 pounds. He needs to improve his control and overall consistently, but he’s a near elite prospect who gets a lot of love, but not quite enough. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 13/3.58/1.23/205 in 175 IP

48) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 19.0 – Perez is nothing short of a phenom as he dominated full season ball pitching as an 18 year old with a pitching line of 1.96/0.86/108/26 in 78 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He’s 6’8”, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and two potentially plus secondaries (slider, change). He’s reportedly been sitting 97-98 MPH early in minor league spring training. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 13/3.51/1.18/202 in 185 IP

49) Cade Cavalli WAS, RHP, 23.8 – Cavalli is 6’4”, 230 pounds with a fastball that consistently hits the upper 90’s. All three of his secondaries (curve, slider, change) flash plus and are potentially plus pitches. Minor league hitters were no match for his filthy repertoire with 175 strikeouts in 123.1 IP split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). His control isn’t great (4.4 BB/9), and will likely have to improve to reach his ace upside. He also ran into some trouble at Triple-A with a 7.30 ERA in 24.2 IP, but considering he had long passed his career high in IP, that is forgivable. 2022 Projection: 5/4.27/1.32/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.26/206 in 182 IP

50) Nate Pearson TOR, RHP, 25.7 – Pearson dealt with a sports hernia in 2021 and underwent surgery for it in November. Off-setting that risk is legitimate top of the rotation potential as Pearson fires a 97.8 MPH fastball that put up an excellent 30.7% whiff%, to go along with a plus slider that notched a 43.6% whiff%. He needs to improve his control and his changeup to reach that upside, and with the addition of Kikuchi he is likely to start the year in the pen or at Triple-A. 2022 Projection: 6/4.08/1.32/120 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.68/1.26/190 in 160 IP

51) Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.2 – Lodolo is 6’6”, 205 pounds with an almost sidearm lefty delivery that he uses to throw mid 90’s heat, a plus slider, and average change. He destroyed Double-A with a pitching line of 1.84/0.91/68/9 in 44 IP. He went over 4 IP in just 3 of his 13 starts, and a left shoulder strain ended his season in August after 50.2 IP. He also battled blisters that kept him out in June. So while the K/BB numbers look great, he didn’t pitch very much and was never able to get going at Triple-A (5.40 ERA with a 10/2 K/BB in 6.2 IP over 3 appearances). 2022 Projection:4/4.14/1.28/77 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/191 in 173 IP

52) Gabriel Moreno TOR, C, 22.1 – Before going down with a broken thumb, Moreno was blowing up at Double-A, slashing .373/.441/.651 with 8 homers and a 22/14 K/BB in 32 games. He has always shown plus contact rates, and he’s now combined that with a more mature approach and developing power. He returned from the thumb injury in time for the Arizona Fall League, and he’s picked up right where he left off, slashing .329/.410/.494 with 11 doubles, 1 homer and a 13/13 K/BB in 22 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.282/.348/.474/1

53) Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Davis’ power breakout happened in the shortened 2020 season, and it carried over into 2021 with Davis slashing .370/.482/.663 with 15 homers, 10 steals, and a 24/31 K/BB in 50 games. He’s got a thick build and absolutely scorches the ball. He stepped right into pro ball and ripped 3 homers in 8 games at mostly High-A before an oblique injury ended his season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/26/89/.268/.337/.481/6

54) Seiya Suzuki FRA, OF, 27.7 – Suzuki has dominated in Japan since 2016 with a righty swing that is both easy and explosive. He ripped a career high 38 homers in 2021, and he combines the power with an advanced plate approach (16.5%/16.4% K%/BB%) and some speed (9 steals in 13 attempts). I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter. He’s in consideration for the 1st pick in first year players drafts this off-season, especially if you are planning to compete in 2022. 2022 Projection: 77/24/81/.264/.336/.463/7

55) Jose Miranda MIN, 3B/2B, 23.8 – Miranda had one of the premier contact/power seasons in the minors, drilling 30 homers with a 12.5% K% in 127 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s been a strong contact hitter his entire career, and the power breakout looks legit as the ball explodes off his bat. On the downside, he hasn’t been especially patient in his career (7.1% BB% in 2021), which MLB pitchers can sometimes exploit better than minor league pitchers. 2022 Projection:33/8/36/.269/.318/.442/1 Prime Projection: 79/26/87/.279/.330/.481/3

56) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 20.4 – I’m targeting Mayo everywhere this off-season. He’s 6’5”, 215 pounds and his swing brings both the lightening and the thunder as it is quick and powerful. The plate approach was damn good too as he notched a 20.8%/12.8% K%/BB% in his 27 game full season debut. His bat has a chance to be special. ETA: 2023/24 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.272/.346/.477/7

57) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 21.0 – Pereira is lurking on the outskirts of elite prospect status after utterly destroying the lower levels of the minors with 20 homers and 9 steals in 49 games (14 homers in 27 games at High-A). The K% was high (29.9% at High-A), but had he played the entire season, the hype might be through the roof right now. I would stick my neck out to grab Pereira in off-season drafts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 81/25/89/.252/.332/.492/13

58) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Boston drafting Nick Yorke 17th overall in 2020 drew some head scratches, but they obviously knew what they were doing because Yorke went off in his pro debut. He slashed .325/.412/.516 with 14 homers, 13 steals (in 22 attempts), and a 15.6%/11.8% K%/BB% in 97 games at mostly Single-A. His K% jumped up to 22.9% at High-A, but he actually put up a better wRC+ at the level (158 wRC+) than he did in Single-A (146 wRC+). He has a double plus hit tool with a mature plate approach and no major groundball issues, so he should hit for solid power on quality of contact alone. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/20/75/.288/.366/.463/8

59) Joe Ryan MIN, RHP, 25.10 – Ryan looks like a better version of Bailey Ober. Like Ober, he showed elite control (5% BB%) of a solid 4 pitch mix that has put up strong strikeout rates throughout his career. He threw his 91.2 MPH fastball 65.8% of the time in his MLB debut and it graded out as 5.8 runs above average in just 26.2 IP according Fangraphs. His slider and curve were also both effective swing and miss pitches when he went to them with a 35.3% and 50% whiff%, respectively. 2022 Projection: 9/3.87/1.20/167 in 160 IP

60) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Vargas is 6’3”, 205 pounds with potentially plus power that he naturally grew into more of this season. He doesn’t have to sell out to get to it, using the entire field and putting up excellent contact numbers. He slashed .319/.380/.526 with 23 homers, 11 steals, and a 16.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 120 games at mostly Double-A. He’s not a burner but he’s been very successful on the bases in his minor league career (31 for 37 in 297 games), so at the least he won’t be a zero in that category. Vargas has started to get more love this off-season, but he’s still considerably underrated. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.278/.344/.492/7

Tier 4

61) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 22.9 – Detmers destroyed the upper levels of the minors with a 108/19 K/BB in 62 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, but the major leagues ate him up with a 7.40 ERA and 19/11 K/BB in 20.2 IP. This was his first year of pro ball, so making it all the way to majors is impressive regardless of results. His fastball ticked up this year, but it still averaged only 92.8 MPH in the majors. He combines that with two plus breaking balls in his curveball and a new slider, while his developing changeup lags behind. Unless his fastball can truly sit in the mid 90’s, he strikes me as a mid rotation guy. 2022 Projection:7/4.22/1.32/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.23/189 in 177 IP

62) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.11 – Meyer jumped straight to Double-A in his pro debut and proved the plus fastball/slider combo will work against advanced competition, putting up a pitching line of 2.41/1.23/113/40 in 101 IP. He then closed the season out in grand fashion at Triple-A with 1 earned and a 17/2 K/BB in 10 IP. He still needs to refine his changeup, but Meyer was as advertised after being drafted 3rd overall in 2020. 2022 Projection: 5/4.21/1.32/101 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.20/186 in 177 IP

63) Brayan Rocchio CLE, SS, 21.3 – Rocchio turned his game up a notch when he got to Double-A, putting up a .765 OPS in 64 games at High-A before dropping a .865 OPS at Double-A. He’s also destroying the Venezuelan Winter League with a 1.034 OPS. His power ticked up this year, smacking 15 homers in 108 games, and he combines that with plus speed and a good feel to hit. On the downside, he doesn’t walk very much (6.7% BB%) and his stolen bases percentage is poor (21 for 31). He’s also a switch hitter who hits lefties better than righties. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 87/20/78/.278/.336/.465/14

64) Jose Barrero CIN, SS, 24.0 – Barrero had a major power breakout in the upper levels of the minors, cracking 19 homers in 85 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He didn’t have much more success in his MLB cup of coffee this year than he did in 2020, but his Statcast numbers looked better with an above average 89.3 MPH exit velocity and 20.6 degree launch angle. His plate approach also took a step forward with a career best 9.5% BB% while maintaining his good feel to hit. He’s not a true burner, but he has above average speed and should contribute in stolen bases. 2022 Projection: 53/15/48/.248/.301/.417/7 Prime Projection: 81/24/81/.265/.327/.453/10

65) Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 24.5 – Pena got a little forgotten about after undergoing wrist surgery in April 2021, but he made all of us remember in a hurry when he returned with 10 homers and 5 steals in 30 games at Triple-A. He also ripped a homer in the Dominican Winter League a few days ago. This is the power breakout we were waiting for. The plate approach wasn’t great at Triple-A with a 26.3%/4.5% K%/BB%, and his 48.8% GB% is high, but Pena has the ingredients to be a strong all category contributor. 2022 Projection: 38/10/44/.246/.309/.417/6 Prime Projection: 81/23/83/.263/.333/.464/10

66) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with good control over a premium, MLB ready 5 pitch mix. His 4 seamer consistently reaches the upper 90’s and his 2 seamer has that nasty tailing action. The slider is plus, the changeup is potentially plus, and his curve can be an effective pitch too. It led to a pitching line of 2.40/0.94/70/13 in 56.1 IP at mostly High-A. He missed 6 weeks with an undisclosed injury and he rarely went more than 4 IP. He also got mashed in the AFL (9.90 ERA), but he mentioned he was specifically working on his curveball, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. Miller still has to prove it over longer outings and for more than 56.1 innings, but he has legitimate ace upside. 2022 Projection: 1/4.21/1.33/22 in 20 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/195 in 170 IP

67) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 23.6 – Stress reaction in his left elbow ended his season in June after just 7 starts. He was in the midst of a possible breakout with a 43.8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 31.2 IP at Double-A. The stuff is premium giving him ace upside, but the control will have to take a step forward to get there. 2022 Projection: 2/4.38/1.39/73 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.66/1.29/205 in 177 IP

68) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 25.7 – Duran’s power breakout in 2020 at the alt side carried over into real games in 2021 with 16 homers and a 37.5% GB% in 60 games at Triple-A, but everything crumbled when he got to the majors. He put up a .578 OPS with a 35.7%/3.6% K%/BB% and a 49.3% GB% in 112 PA. The good news is that he hit the ball pretty hard with an above average 89.6/93.6 MPH AVG/FB EV and he’s lightening fast with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. Even with the new flyball approach in Triple-A he was able to maintain a strong 23.3%/10.6% K%/BB%, and he’s been a strong contact hitter his entire career, so those numbers should improve his 2nd time through the majors. 2022 Projection: 46/12/41/.243/.301/.418/14 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.258/.319/.433/19

69) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Harris is an explosive player who hits the ball hard with above average contact rates (18.1% K%) and plus speed (27 steals in 101 games at High-A). He hit only 7 homers because of a high 50.3% GB% and his home ballpark is an extreme pitcher’s park, so he has more power than he showed. He will have to raise his launch angle if he wants to unlock more it though. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/18/71/.273/.330/.423/18

70) Pedro Leon HOU, OF/SS, 23.10 – Leon had a up and down season in his first year playing stateside ball, which is understandable considering the long layoff coming over from Cuba, and then suffering a broken pinky finger in late July. There was a 37 game stretch though, after he shook off the rust from a poor May, and before he broke his finger, where he looked like a stud, slashing .292/.414/.515 with 7 homers, 12 steals, and a 40/23 K/BB in 37 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He wasn’t the same after returning from the injury with 5 hits in 50 AB at mostly Triple-A. and he then put up a .639 OPS in 15 Arizona Fall League games. He flashed both his upside and his risk this year, and I think it is reasonable to expect a much more stable season in year 2. 2022 Projection:27/6/23/.232/.308/.410/5 Prime Projection: 81/22/76/.254/.331/.453/13

71) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 20.9 –Henderson has a real chance of being a special player too with power and speed, but his bat comes with more risk as he had a 29.3% K% at Single-A, 30.1% K% at Double-A, and then struck out 10 times in 17 AB in his Double-A cup of coffee. ETA: 2023/24 Prime Projection: 77/23/80/.259/.332/.461/10

72) Bryson Stott PHI, SS, 24.6 – Stott performed exactly like expected in 2021 with solid numbers across the board, slashing .299/.390/.486 with 16 homers, 10 steals and a 108/65 K/BB in 112 at mostly Double-A. He finished the season strong in 10 games at Triple-A (.833 OPS with a 8/8 K/BB), and then raked in the Arizona Fall League with .934 OPS in 26 games. He doesn’t have the highest upside, but if you want to go the safe route I can see ranking him higher. 2022 Projection:43/9/38/.252/.313/.427/4 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.269/.337/.442/9

73) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 21.4 – Pages had the 8th highest flyball percentage in all of the minor leagues among qualified hitters with a 55.3% FB%. It led to 31 homers in 120 games at High-A. He walks a ton with a 14.3% BB% and he has reasonable contact rates too with a 24.5% K%. LA’s High-A ballpark is a pitcher’s park that reduces homers, so he was actually much better on the road (1.016 OPS) than he was at home (.846 OPS). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/32/89/.255/.345/.503/4

74) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 20.0 – Armstrong was my favorite target in last year’s first year player drafts, ranking him 7th overall, and he got off to a glorious start with 10 hits in his first 24 at bats, but it all came to a screeching halt when he tore his labrum (shoulder), which required season ending surgery. He’s a full go for 2022 and has already showed off a new batting stance that should help him get to his power more. He has a plus hit, speed, and a defense profile, but I think there is more power in the tank than he is getting credit for. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 91/17/66/.278/.355/.435/22

75) Keibert Ruiz WAS, C, 23.8 – Ruiz ripped up Triple-A with strong contact rates but he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to get really excited. He had a 9.4%/6/3% K%/BB% with a 86 MPH exit velocity in 29 MLB games. He does lift the ball with an 18.6 degree launch, and his contact numbers are truly elite, so even with a low HR/FB rate he should still be able to get plenty of balls over the fence. 2022 Projection: 58/18/64/.267/.323/.420/0 Prime Projection: 73/23/79/.277/.340/.445/0

76) Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.11 – Cabrera’s control completely left him once he hit Triple-A as he put up a 14.7% BB% in 29.1 IP. Those problems followed him to the majors, notching a 15.8% BB% in 26.1 IP. He throws a legitimate 4 pitch mix with his fastball averaging 96.7 MPH, and he never showed this level of control problems in the past, so I would be buying this off-season. 2022 Projection: 6/4.18/1.35/121 in 115 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.73/1.28/191 in 175 IP

77) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Busch was unable to carry over his plus contact rates from college (26.1% K% in 107 games at Double-A), but he was able to carry over the power (20 homers) and walks (14.1% BB%). He’s your classic power, patience, and K’s slugger who would be helped if the NL adds a DH, because he’s not a great defensive player. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 84/25/84/.260/.347/.481/2

78) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B, 22.4 – Vientos is 6’4, 185 pounds and was a power breakout waiting to happen. It happened. He crushed 22 homers in 72 games at Double-A and then he cracked 3 homers in 11 games at Triple-A to close the season. His strikeout rate spiked with the power to 28.4% at Double-A (30.2% at Triple-A), so there is risk, but his power has true elite potential. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/32/88/.248/.327/.502/1

79) Heliot Ramos SFG, OF, 22.6 – I learned the hard way that trying to trade Ramos for anything close to fair value is near impossible, and I don’t blame people because his numbers have just been so mediocre (107 wRC+ at Double-A and 80 wRC+ at Triple-A), but he’s always been very young for his level and the explosive tools are still in there. His value has been so discounted that he might be a buy at this point. 2022 Projection:18/5/22/.234/.298/.427/3 Prime Projection: 76/24/85/.257/.328/.469/11

80) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 19.9 – Alcantara is 6’6”, 188 pounds and has potential written all over him. He is an excellent athlete with plenty of room on his frame to fill out and end up with at least plus power at peak. There is some swing and miss to his game, but it’s not expected to be an extreme problem. He showed out in rookie ball this year, slashing .345/.423/.588 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 26.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 34 games. He’s a great high upside shot to take, and his price should remain very reasonable this off-season. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.250/.325/.473/11

81) Harry Ford SEA, C, 19.2 – Selected 12th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Ford generates plus power with one of the quickest bats in the draft, notching an 80.8 MPH max barrel speed which is in the 98.86 percentile of his high school class (stats from Perfect Game). He also had plus speed with a 6.5 second 60 yard dash. He used those skills to rake in his pro debut, slashing .291/.400/.582 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 21.5%/13.8% K%/BB% in 19 games. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/27/85/.262/.338/.486/10

82) Dustin Harris TEX, 1B, 22.9 – Harris’ power exploded in 2021, bringing his GB% down from over 50% in his 2019 pro debut to 33.8% at Single-A (42.6% at High-A). He jacked 20 homers in 110 games, and as long as he keeps the ball off the ground, the power is definitely real as he’s a built up 6’2”, 185 pounds. He’s always had a good feel to hit with an advanced plate approach, and the power breakout didn’t change that at all with a 15.7%/10.1% K%/BB%. The cherry on top is that he has some speed too with 25 steals in 27 attempts. There is a whole lot to like here. Proving it against more advanced pitching is the last step. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/26/83/.267/.328/.462/9

83) Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 23.1 – Wiemer is an impressive dude at 6’5”, 215 pounds with big raw power and above average speed. He put up a dominant statistical season split between Single-A and High-A, slashing .295/.403/.566 with 27 homers, 30 homers, and a 105/63 K/BB in 109 games. He is a bit old for the lower levels of the minors, and there are some hit tool concerns, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/25/81/.247/.321/.466/13

84) Cole Winn TEX, RHP, 22.4 – Winn’s best pitch is a big breaking curveball that he goes to often. It’s an effective pitch both in and out of the zone. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball and an average-ish slider and changeup. He used that advanced repertoire to befuddle upper minors hitters with a pitching line of 2.41/0.86/107/31 in 86 IP. I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but he has the chance to be a legitimately impact fantasy pitcher. 2022 Projection:3/4.41/1.36/67 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.88/1.27/177 in 171 IP

85) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Cowser’s power exploded this season with 16 homers in 55 games in the Southland Conference. That was the final piece to the puzzle as he has shown a good feel to hit with an advanced plate approach from the second he stepped on campus. He then followed that up with a strong pro debut, putting up a 158 wRC+ with a 15.3%/17.7% K%/BB% in 25 games at Single-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 85/22/80/.278/.350/.458/8

86) MacKenzie Gore SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Gore’s alt site reports in 2020 were mediocre at best, and we saw those problems play out in 2021 with a pitching line of 3.93/1.47/61/28 in 50.1 IP (6.35 ERA with a 8/6 K/BB in 11.1 IP in the AFL). He showed control issues, delivery issues, and inconsistent stuff. At his best he still flashed 4 plus pitches from the left side, so he is far form a lost cause, but he is also far from a finished product. 2022 Projection: 2/4.42/1.37/42 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.32/168 in 155 IP

87) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 19.3 – Jordan has been well known for his impressive power for years now at 6’2”, 220 pounds with a lightening quick righty swing, and he didn’t disappoint in his pro debut with 6 homers in 28 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He destroyed rookie ball with a 1.075 OPS in 19 games, and while his plate approach got exposed in full season ball (.289 OBP), he still ripped 2 quick homers in 9 games. He’s not great on defense and he needs to refine his plate approach, but his prodigious power gives him a very high floor for fantasy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/33/89/.252/.318/.508/3

88) Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 24.6 – Pasquantino certainly looks the part of a big time slugger at 6’4”, 245 pounds with an under control and powerful lefty swing. Along with cracking 24 homers in 116 games, he had an elite 12.5%/12.5% K%/BB% split between High-A and Double-A. He was old for the level, but he dominated Double-A just as easily as he did High-A. Steamer is all on him, giving him a 117 wRC+ for 2022. Between Pratto, Pasquantino, Melendez and Witt, KC is about to get an explosion of talent, and the battle for playing time could be fierce. 2022 Projection:9/3/12/.253/.320/.441/0 Prime Projection: 79/26/81/.268/.340/.477/2

89) Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.0 – Yepez completely destroyed the upper levels of the minors, slashing .286/.383/.586 with 27 homers and a 18.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 111 games at mostly Triple-A. He carried that right over to the Arizona Fall League with 7 homers and a 1.028 OPS. He’s always made solid contact throughout his minor league career and was showing seeds of a power breakout in 2019 before exploding in 2021. He’s not great on defense and he doesn’t exactly have a position, but you can’t ignore those offensive numbers. 2022 Projection: 21/5/25/.241/.303/.434/1 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.258/.325/.470/3

90) Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B, 20.9 – Noel has had no issues getting to his monster raw power throughout his career, and that didn’t change in full season ball as he smacked 19 homers in just 70 games split between Single-A and High-A. His plate approach needs refinement, putting up a 16.7%/4.3% K%/BB% at Single-A and 27.9%/8.1% K%/BB% at High-A, but he’s not just an all or nothing slugger, he does have a good feel to hit. Defense might be his biggest hurdle, so he’ll go as far as his bat will take him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/28/87/.258/.325/.489/3

91) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 22.9 – Hancock understands the art of pitching, showing good control of a legitimate 5 pitch mix (4-seam, 2-seam, slider, change, curve). His 4 seamer can reach the upper 90’s, his 2 seamer is nasty, and his slider and change are both potentially plus. He pitched very well in his pro debut with a 2.62 ERA split between High-A and Double-A, but he was shut down in late August after just 44.2 IP due to a minor shoulder issue, and he was shut down a few weeks ago with a lat injury. 2022 Projection: 3/4.13/1.30/56 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.21/183 in 178 IP

92) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 3rd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Jobe has a devastating slider that is an elite pitch with high spin rates. He pairs that with a mid 90’s fastball and a changeup that flashes plus. The delivery is athletic, and while he still needs some refinement, he is the highest upside high school arm in the class. He’s a two way prospect, but his future is on the mound. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 14/3.55/1.19/195 in 177 IP

93) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 23.7 – Mitchell has a very similar profile to Bradley Zimmer, for better or worse. They are explosive players with a plus speed/power combo, but their high K% and GB% holds them back. Mitchell’s over 60% GB% is even worse than Zimmer’s. The upside is still very high for fantasy, but he is going to have to make an adjustment to reach it. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/16/71/.256/.324/.429/22

Tier 5

94) Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.1 – Arteaga is one of my favorite rookie ball breakouts, slashing .294/.367/.503 with 9 homers, 8 steals, and a 69/23 K/BB in 56 games. He keeps the ball off the ground with a 36% GB% and there is even more power coming in his 6’1”, 170 pound frame. His 30.5% K% is a bit high for comfort, but he has a better feel to hit than that indicates. I believe there is star upside in here, and his potentially plus SS defense should give him every opportunity to reach it. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/23/79/.264/.337/.462/13

95) Jordan Groshans TOR, SS, 22.4 – Groshans had a solid but unspectacular season at Double-A with 7 homers and a 124 wRC+ in 75 games. His advanced plate approach (19.3%/10.8% K%/BB%) is impressive, especially considering his age relative to level, and he kept the ball off the ground with a 39.7% GB%, which led to 23 doubles. He had some injury issues with a sore back earlier in the year and then missed the last month of the year for undisclosed reasons. Because of the limited games and non splashy surface stats, Groshans makes for a nice dynasty target this off-season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 84/25/84/.274/.352/.481/2

96) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 22.4 – Baty personifies the proverbial “professional at-bat.” He slashed .292/.382/.473 with 12 homers and a 25.5%/11.9% K%/BB% in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A. There is some swing and miss to his game (30.4% K% in 25 AFL games) and while he has at least plus power, his groundball percentage is way too high to take advantage of it (61.2% at Double-A). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/25/81/.269/.353/.477/4

97) Reginald Preciado CHC, SS, 18.11 – Preciado is a sinewy and projectable 6’4”, 185 pounds, and he got off to a strong start in his pro career, slashing .333/.383/.511 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 22.7%/7.1% K%/BB% in 34 games in rookie ball. He’s a switch hitter with a quick and simple swing that is geared for both power and average. While he stole 7 bags, he’s not a burner and will likely be more of a power hitter as he ages. He will still be 18 years old when the 2022 season starts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.267/.332/.472/7

98) Benny Montgomery COL, OF, 19.7 – Selected 8th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Montgomery is possibly the highest upside bat in the class, putting up a 103 MPH exit velocity and a 6.32 60 yard dash time. That puts him at the top of the class in power and speed. His hit tool was supposed to be raw, but it actually looked pretty good in his pro debut, slashing .340/.404/.383 with 0 homers, 5 steals and a 17.3%/9.6% K%/BB% in 14 games. He wasn’t able to get to any of his power with a 55.6% groundball percentage, but seeing the strong K% is almost more important at this stage of the game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/24/83/.258/.332/.460/15

99) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 19.4 – Selected 30th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Allen is a 3 sport star and is one of the best athletes in the class. He’s 6’3”, 190 pounds and takes some vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing much more power is coming. Even without concentrating on baseball full time he has shown a good feel to hit with the potential for a plus power/speed combo. He impressed right out of the gate in his pro debut, slashing .328/.440/.557 with 3 homers, 14 steals (in 15 attempts) and a 16%/10.7% K%/BB% in 19 games. He’s a major target of mine in off-season prospect drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/20/74/.273/.335/.446/20

100) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.7 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wood is a big and athletic lefty at 6’7”, 240 pounds with plus power and above average run times. He dominated rookie ball in his pro debut, slashing .372/.465/.535 with 3 homers, 10 steals and a 31.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 26 games. Like any player this tall, he has some hit tool concerns, and his GB% was a bit high at 49%. This is basically the Oneil Cruz starter kit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.247/.326/.458/9

101) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 22.5 – Liberatore was given an aggressive assignment, jumping straight from Single-A in 2019 to Triple-A in 2021. He was a bit up and down in the first half, but he finished the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 53/14 K/BB in his final 53 IP, which is a great sign. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he has plus command of a 4 pitch mix and he knows how to pitch. The stuff ticked up in his first spring start, which could be a sign he is ready to take the next step 2022 Projection: 4/4.37/1.32/73 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.80/1.19/190 in 190 IP

102) Matt Brash SEA, RHP, 23.10 – Brash put up eye popping numbers in 97.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A with a pitching line of 2.87/1.14/142/48. He uses a plus fastball/slider combo to rack up strikeouts while mixing in a potentially plus change and average curve. Improving his control will be the last step to unlocking his considerable upside. 2022 Projection: 4/4.21/1.34/85 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.85/1.26/194 in 171 IP

103) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 23.1 – Foscue went off against inferior competition at High-A (189 wRC+ in 33 games) and the AFL (.956 OPS in 18 games), but he struggled at the more age appropriate Double-A (89 wRC+ in 26 games). Overall, he showed more power and strikeouts than was expected with 17 homers and a 27% K%. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.261/.323/.450/3

104) Travis Swaggerty PIT, OF, 24.7 – A shoulder injury which required surgery ended Swaggerty’s season after just 12 games at Triple-A. He played real well in those 12 games with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 8/6 K/BB. He was reportedly showing more power in 2020 at the alt site, so the 3 quick homers back up that report. He projects as a solid all category contributor at peak, and there is very little competition for at-bats in Pitt’s outfield. 2022 Projection: 52/13/45/.242/.306/.403/10 Prime Projection: 79/18/71/.258/.330/.425/16

105) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 19.2 – I fell in love with Ramirez the second I saw his Youtube international prospect hype videos a few years ago. He remains a high upside lottery ticket who the Mets thought enough of to send straight to full season ball for his pro debut. He managed to hold his own with a near average 96 wRC+ and a respectable triple-slash of .258/.326/..384 with 5 homers, 16 steals and a 31.1%/6.9% K%/BB% in 76 games. He’s a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with a wicked righty swing and a potentially plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/23/81/.263/.331/.452/17

106) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 20.7 – Shoulder tendonitis ended Abel’s season in late July after just 44.2 IP. When healthy, he showed a potentially plus 4 pitch mix headlined by a fastball that can consistently reach the upper 90’s. His control/command needs major work as he put up a 14.3% BB%, and the shoulder injury isn’t great, but there is top of the rotation upside here. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 13/3.61/1.30/205 in 171 IP

107) Seth Beer ARI, 1B, 25.8 – Beer dislocated his shoulder and required surgery after just 5 games into his MLB debut. Inopportune injuries like this for an older prospect can sometimes be the kiss of death for finding a path to playing time, but he hit well in those 5 games (1.389 OPS), and if the DH comes to the NL he will be in much better position going forward. He’s hit well every single year of his career going back to his freshman year of college, and I’m betting on that to continue in the Majors if given the opportunity. 2022 Projection:37/11/41/.257/.325/.449/0 Prime Projection: 75/24/83/.268/.335/.472/0

108) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 19.9 – Caissie is a 6’4”, 190 pound lefty masher who looks a bit like Joey Gallo at the dish. He performed a bit like Joey Gallo at the dish too with a 29.6%/18.6% K%/BB% to go along with 7 homers in 54 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He decimated rookie ball with a 179 wRC+ in 32 games, but when he got to the more age appropriate Single-A, his numbers took a dive (.695 OPS). He’s your classic power and patience slugger who gets a big boost in OBP leagues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/29/85/.243/.335/.486/2

109) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.5 – Mead has baseball bloodlines with his dad playing professional baseball in Australia. His swing reminds me of my stickball swing, staying upright and loose in the box before ripping liners all over the parking lot, er, baseball field. He hits the ball very hard and makes great contact (15.5% K%), and even though his swing is geared for line drives he still hit 15 homers in 104 games at mostly Single-A (163 wRC+ in 47 games) and High-A (117 wRC+ in 53 games). He is now destroying the AFL, slashing .313/.360/.530 with 3 homers in 20 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/22/85/.276/.332/.457/7

110) Jairo Pomares SFG, OF, 21.8 – I love the way Pomares stays relaxed and as cool as the other side of the pillow (RIP Stuart Scott) in the box before absolutely unleashing violence on the baseball. He cracked 20 homers in only 77 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his plate approach needs work as he had a 26.5%/4.9% K%/BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/81/.263/.317/.465/4

111) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 21.0 – The power breakout arrived for the 6’3” Mauricio as he ripped 20 homers in 108 games at mostly High-A (1 homer in 8 games at Triple-A). He also cranked out this bomb a few days ago in LIDOM (Dominican Winter League). The plate approach is still raw with a 24.7%/5.7% K%/BB%, but 2021 was a step in the right direction to reaching his considerable upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/24/81/.261/.323/.465/7

112) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 20.3 – Cruz is an explosive player with massive raw power and plus speed. He demolished a ball at 117.5 MPH in an instructional league game in early October. He is still very raw, putting up a 31%/4.8% K%/BB% in 50 games at Single-A, and he hasn’t completely tapped into his raw power yet with 8 homers. He also got caught stealing a lot, going 8 for 13 on the bases. The upside is off the charts, but so is the risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/21/81/.253/.311/.453/12

113) Victor Acosta SDP, SS, 17.10 – Acosta signed for $1.8 million in last years international class and he impressed right out of the gate in pro ball, slashing .285/.431/.484 with 5 homers, 26 steals, and a 18.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, but his lefty swing looks particularly dangerous to me. If his power fully develops, he has superstar upside, and even if it doesn’t his hit tool and speed are enough to make him a truly impact player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/18/78/.274/.352/.445/24

114) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 20.7 – Cartaya is a big man at 6’3”, 219 pounds, and he had no trouble getting to his at least plus raw power with 10 homers and a 39.2% GB% in just 31 games at Single-A (a passport issue and then a hamstring injury ended his season early). Here he is smoking a 97 MPH fastball for a dinger in June. His 27% K% was high, but he was still able to show a good feel to hit with a .298 BA, and he also had a high 13.1% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/77/.260/.336/.472/0

115) Austin Wells NYY, C, 22.9 – Wells more or less lived up to his scouting report in his pro debut with high walk rates and good power numbers. Low groundball rates is a good sign that more power should be coming, and he showed a willingness to run with 16 steals (on 16 attempts). Steals aren’t going to be a major part of his game, but it shows he should at least contribute in the category. The only red flag was a 32.4% K% in 38 games at Single-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 84/22/81/.262/.348/.469/6

116) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 24.8 – If you’re going to trust just one minor league stat, K/BB rate is a great one to trust, and Knack is elite in that category with an 82/8 K/BB in 62.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball up in the zone with 3 secondaries that flash plus (slider, curve, change). He doesn’t go to the change that often and his slider is more consistent than his curve. I’m not necessarily seeing top of the rotation upside, but a low WHIP, high K mid-rotation starter plays up in fantasy. 2022 Projection: 1/4.40/1.30/15 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.90/1.21/175 in 165 IP

117) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 23.7 – Brown has premium stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. He also throws a lesser used average-ish changeup. When his control is on, he is nearly unhittable, and that area of his game got better as the season went on, improving his BB% from 13.4% in 49.1 IP at Double-A to 9.7% in 51 IP at Triple-A. His overall numbers on the year don’t jump out at you with a pitching line of 4.04/1.42/131/50 in 100.1 IP, and he can be inconsistent, but this is the type of high upside arm to take a shot on. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.30/190 in 170 IP

118) Liover Peguero PIT, SS, 21.3 – Peguero jumped straight to High-A in his first year of full season ball and was one of the youngest players in the league. It didn’t stop him from putting up a very respectable triple slash of .270/.332/.444 with 14 homers, 28 steals (6 caught stealing), and a 25.2%/7.9% K%/BB% in 90 games. He has plus speed and his power ticked up this year with room for more as he continues to fill out. His plate approach is still raw, which will be the key to his ultimate upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/18/75/.268/.325/.431/18

119) Luis Campusano SD, C, 23.6 – Campusano unlocked his power in 2021 with a career best 40.2% GB, leading to 15 homers in 81 games at Triple-A. He had a 52.2% HardHit% on 23 batted balls in his MLB cup of coffee this year. He couldn’t keep up the elite 11.7% K% he put up at High-A in 2019 with a 20.2% K% in 2021 (37.9% whiff% in the majors), so I think his ultimate batting average is more of a question than his power at this point. 2022 Projection: 25/7/28/.248/.308/.424/0 Prime Projection: 69/22/76/.266/.327/.462/0

120) Joey Bart SFG, C, 25.3 – Buster Posey’s surprise retirement leaves the door wide open for Bart to take hold of the starting catcher job. He continued to show big power with 10 homers in 67 games at Triple-A, but his K% spiked to 29.4% and he’s never walked a ton with 7.5% BB% this year. He also will be playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league. 2022 Projection: 39/12/45/.228/.282/.411/0 Prime Projection: 62/24/78/.247/.310/.451/1

121) Elehuris Montero COL, 1B/OF, 23.7 – Montero seems like exactly the type of prospect that Colorado will never give extended playing time to, but on the off chance they do, he has a chance to be a beast in Coors. He’s 6’3”, 235 pounds with plus power that fully broke out this season, slashing .278/.360/.529 with 28 homers and a 22%/10.6% K%/BB% in 120 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He has a career 21.2% K% in 480 minor league games, so he’s never had major issues making contact. All he needs is the chance. 2022 Projection:11/4/15/.255/.312/.451/0 Prime Projection: 72/25/79/.272/.330/.483/1

122) Sal Frelick MIL, OF, 22.0 – Selected 15th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Frelick has a plus hit, plus speed profile. He’s undersized, and while he doesn’t project for big power numbers, the ball jumps off his bat. He has a strong history of production in the ACC, slashing .345/.435/.521 with 12 homers, 38 steals, and a 50/60 K/BB in 102 games, and he proved those skills will transfer in his pro debut. He has the type of profile that should move through the minors quickly. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 81/14/65/.276/.339/.412/17

123) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 23.8 – After playing only 12 games in the upper minors (Double-A) prior to this season, Boston sent Downs straight to Triple-A and he simply wasn’t ready. His K% skyrocketed to 32.3% and he put up a 62 wRC+ in 99 games. He was better against inferior competition in the AFL with a .880 OPS, but he still had only a .228 BA with 18 K’s in 16 games. The above average power/speed combo is still there, and this was the first time he has really struggled in his career, so hopefully he can make the necessary adjustments this off-season. 2022 Projection: 17/4/21/.221/.298/.395/3 Prime Projection: 76/23/76/.245/.318/.433/11

124) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 23.1 – After Mayo, Westburg provides the next best value compared to price in Baltimore’s system. He quietly put together a strong season across 3 levels of the minors (Single-A, High-A, Double-A), slashing .285/.389/.479 with 15 homers, 17 steals, and a 25.1%/12.1% K%/BB% in 112 games. He may not win you any one category, but he can be a solid across the board contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/17/71/.266/.334/.432/18

125) Matt McLain CIN, SS, 22.8 – Selected 17th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McLain is a safe college bat with a good feel to hit, some pop, and plus speed, but doesn’t stand out in any one category. He slashed .333/.434/.579 with 9 homers, 9 steals, and a 34/34 K/BB in 47 games at UCLA, and then performed well in his pro debut at High-A, slashing .273/.387/.424 with 3 homers, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 29 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/18/71/.274/.343/.425/15

126) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 21.11 – Selected 20th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Sweeney was a bat first prospect who absolutely raked in college this year, slashing .382/.522/.712 with 14 homers and a 24/46 K/BB in 48 games. He immediately showed his power is legit with 7 homers in 32 games in his pro debut at mostly Single-A. Coming out of the Ohio Valley Conference, he has still yet to face top level competition, but the Yankees are clearly believers, and his pro debut did nothing to prove them wrong. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.261/.337/.457/5

127) Cristian Santana DET, SS, 18.4 – I was relatively high on Santana coming into the year, ranking him 263rd overall on my off-season Top 473 prospects list, and he lived up to the expectations in his pro debut, slashing .269/.421/.520 with 9 homers, 12 steals, and a 21.3%/13.9% K%/BB%. He had a 58.8% flyball percentage, which is almost too high, but there isn’t any concern with him getting to all of his power, and he combines that with an advanced plate approach and some speed. I love Santana as a high upside target with a decent floor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/26/81/.268/.342/.473/8

128) Gabriel Gonzalez SEA, OF, 18.2 – Gonzalez is a high signing bonus ($1.1 million) international prospect who was one of the top breakouts in the Dominican Summer League, slashing .287/.371/.521 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 15.8%/9.5% K%/BB% in 54 games. He’s only 5’10, but he packs a punch with plenty of power projection to go along with above average speed and a good feel to hit. DSL stats are the least reliable, but he’s a great high upside target. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/24/81/.271/.337/.470/12

129) Asa Lacy KCR, LHP, 22.10 – Lacy’s control was atrocious in his pro debut with a 17.3% BB% in 52 IP at High-A. He also pitched in the AFL and the control was just as bad with 6 walks in 7.2 IP. He wasn’t exactly a control artist in college either with a career 4.0 BB/9 (3.0 BB/9 his junior year), but it was never this bad, so I do think it is reasonable to assume that will regress closer to what he’s shown in the past. He shouldn’t have any fear about throwing the ball over the plate, because the stuff is elite with an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider that led to a 33.3% K% (15 K’s in the AFL). His changeup and curve also flash plus. He’s an ace if he improves his control. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.78/1.33/186 in 163 IP

130) Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 24.5 – Langeliers’ answered the questions about his ultimate power potential this year after hitting just 2 homers in his 54 game pro debut in 2019. He brought his GB% down 9.7 percentage points to 30.7% and jacked out 22 homers in 97 games at mostly Double-A. It does come with some swing and miss, striking out 26.2% of the time at Double-A and 42.9% at Triple-A (in 14 PA). 2022 Projection: 12/3/15/.236/.302/.417/0 Prime Projection: 62/23/69/.252/.321/.444/1

131) Tyler Freeman CLE, SS, 22.10 – Left shoulder surgery ended Freeman’s season after just 41 games. He wasn’t able to tap into that extra power that was reported from the alt site in 2020, hitting only 2 homers at Double-A. He was able to carry over his elite contact rates though with a 11.7% K%. He doesn’t walk much (4.4% BB%), and while he has some speed, he was only 4 for 6 on the bases this year. The elite contact rates and the hope he will come into more power is what you are buying here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/16/65/.286/.339/.430/11

132) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 20.1 – Luisangel is smaller than his brother and doesn’t have his brother’s power, but he’s a good ballplayer in his own right with the chance for across the board production. He shows a mature plate approach with a 23.3%/10.4% K%/BB% and plus speed with 44 steals in 55 attempts. He also jacked 12 homers with a 49.7% GB%, so if he can lower that groundball rate and get stronger as he matures, he may end up with some real pop. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/17/70/.266/.335/.423/19

133) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 21.4 – Robinson’s career is up in the air after he was sentenced to 18 months probation for assaulting a police officer during a mental breakdown. There is no clear answer on when he will be allowed to continue his career. He was already a high risk player due to hit tool concerns, and this latest development pushes the risk off the charts. I completely get if you want to cut bait, but his potentially elite power/speed combo is worth hanging onto until there is at least a little more clarity on his future. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/25/81/.233/.308/.465/14

134) Greg Jones TBR, SS, 24.1 – Jones is all about that pure, uncut upside with double plus speed and plus raw power. He knocked 14 homers and was 34 for 36 on the bases in 72 games split between High-A (144 wRC+ in 72 games) and Double-A (60 wRC+ in 16 games). He was a perfect for 7 for 7 on the bases at Double-A, so the stolen base prowess is definitely real. His strikeout rates are in the danger zone (29.2% at High-A and 35% at Double-A), and he’s on the older side, so the risk is very high, but the upside is worth chasing. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/61/.242/.318/.428/24

135) Ezequiel Duran TEX, 2B/SS, 22.10 – Duran is an explosive player with a powerful righty swing. He cracked 19 homers in 105 games at High-A and is now ripping up the AFL with a .942 OPS. His plate approach still needs refinement (27.6%/8.5% K%/BB%), and while he stole 19 bags, he got caught 9 times and isn’t a burner. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/25/79/.253/.318/.458/7

136) Sam Bachman LAA, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 9th overall, Bachman has an aggressive, attacking delivery that he uses to fire upper 90’s heat with a nasty plus slider. He had some shoulder soreness early in the year, but was lights out when on the mound with a pitching line of 1.81/0.77/93/17 in 59.2 IP. There is some reliever risk, but the stuff is electric. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.21/179 in 163 IP

137) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.0 – Selected 13th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter is a big dude at 6’7”, 215 pounds and throws a 4 pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change) with an easy repeatable delivery. He’s displayed good control and all of his pitches have the potential to be above average at least. He dominated in his pro debut with 0 ER and a 12/0 K/BB over 6 IP in rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 14/3.71/1.18/198 in 183 IP

138) James Triantos CHC, 2B/SS, 19.2 – Selected 56th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Triantos had an eye opening pro debut, slashing .327/.376/.594 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 25 games in rookie ball. He has a textbook righty swing and a great feel to hit. He doesn’t project for huge power, but he should be able to get to all of the power he has through quality of contact. The hype has started to percolate for him, but he should still come at a good value in off-season drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 85/23/78/.283/.341/.462/6

139) Jose Salas MIA, SS, 18.11 – If your thing is finding high upside prospects who can fly up prospects lists in a hurry, Salas is your guy. He proved too advanced for stateside rookie ball as a young 18 year old, putting up a 163 wRC+ with a 21.5%/10.3% K%/BB% in 28 games. Miami was impressed enough to send him to full season for 27 games and he was able to hold his own there too with a .333 OBP and a very reasonable 22.8%. He stole 14 bags on the season and while his power didn’t show up with only 2 homers, there is definitely more coming as his 6’2”, 191 pound frame continues to mature. Now is the time to get in. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/23/80/.273/.348/.461/12

140) Blake Walston ARI, LHP, 20.9 – Walston is a big lefty at 6’5”, 175 pounds with a legitimate 4 pitch mix (fastball, curve, slider, change). All four of his pitches have the potential to be at least above average, with his curveball as his money pitch. He pitched well in his first taste of full season ball with a pitching line of 3.76/1.24/117/33 split between Single-A and High-A, and he’s shaping up to be a high K mid rotation guy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.88/1.27/189 in 177 IP

141) Eddys Leonard LAD, 2B/SS, 21.4 – Leonard isn’t physically imposing at 6’0”, 160 pounds (probably heavier than that now), but the ball definitely jumps off his bat. He whacked 22 homers in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His plate approach was solid with a 23.6%/10.4% K%/BB%, and he has some speed too with 9 steals. He isn’t likely to win you any one category, but he can be a damn good overall hitter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/76/.265/.339/.446/7

142) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 23.2 – Heart inflammation has kept Kjerstad out all year but he recently started taking BP. If you are negotiating a trade this off-season with a team that has Kjerstad in their system, seeing if you can get him tacked on for cheap wouldn’t be the worst idea. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/26/81/.252/.320/.472/3

143) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 17.7 – The crown jewel of this year’s international free agent class, Arias is a switch hitter with an all around skillset that could develop in any number of directions. He’s shown a good feel to hit with the ability to hit it hard and has above average speed. Defense might be his best tool at the moment. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/21/81/.268/.335/.453/12

144) Cristian Vaquero WAS, OF, 17.8 – Vaquero is expected to sign for the top signing bonus in the international class and has the requisite upside to back that up. He’s an elite athlete at 6’3”, 185 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and the frame to tack on more muscle. The hit tool is still raw, so the risk is high. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/24/85/.258/.331/.462/14

145) Adrian Morejon SDP, LHP, 23.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late April 2021 and will likely be out until mid-season 2022. Morejon was one of my favorite targets last off-season with a 96.3 MPH fastball and 3 potentially plus, swing and miss secondaries in his changeup, curve and slider. He added a sinker to the mix this year and the extremely small sample results were positive with a 30.8% whiff% and negative 3 degree launch angle. He seems mostly forgotten about, but he has the kind of premium stuff that is worth waiting on. He is an easy flier that you can probably get for close to nothing at this point. 2022 Projection: 3/4.12/1.31/62 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.79/1.24/177 in 162 IP

146) AJ Puk OAK, LHP, 26.11 – Puk is starting to look pretty locked into being a bullpen arm, at least for the next few seasons. He has the classic high leverage reliever profile with a 95.4 MPH fastball and a plus slider that put up a 46.4% whiff%. 2022 Projection: 4/3.93/1.33/81 in 73 IP

147) Kyle Muller ATL, LHP, 24.6 – Muller has plus stuff with a 93.4 fastball and two swing and miss secondaries in his slider (34.6% whiff%) and curve (48.1% whiff%). It resulted in a 30.8% whiff% on the MLB level and a 27% K% at Triple-A, but his poor control makes him high risk with a 12.9% BB% (12.2% at Triple-A). There is plenty of competition in Atlanta for rotation spots, so he could end up in the pen, especially early in his career. 2022 Projection: 3/4.03/1.35/71 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.83/1.32/169 in 155 IP

148) Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 24.1 – Ashcraft broke out in 2021 with a pitching line of 3.00/1.11/129/37 in 111 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He misses bats and induces lots of groundballs (60.5% GB% in 72.1 IP at Double-A), which is a great combination. His bread and butter is a mid to upper 90’s fastball that has hit 100 MPH with good cutting action. He combines that with a filthy breaking ball and developing changeup. He’s one of my favorite pop up pitching prospects this year and while there is reliever risk, I still think he is being undervalued. 2022 Projection: 2/4.19/1.33/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.28/178 in 165 IP

149) Nolan Jones CLE, 3B/OF, 23.9 – Jones feels like he’s been around forever, and he has the requisite prospect fatigue that goes along with that, but he still has the potential to be an excellent power and patience bat. He put up a 14.5% BB% in 99 games at Triple-A, and while he hit only 13 homers, it was likely due to a cold streak to start the year. He hit 12 homers in his final 66 games. The strikeouts have climbed as he climbed the minor league leaguer, culminating with a 30% K% this year, so he’s a better target in OBP leagues. 2022 Projection: 37/9/32/.226/.317/.435/2 Prime Projection: 84/27/81/.242/.343/.471/3

150) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 24.3 – Jarvis is an advanced pitcher with an above average 4 pitch mix. His fastball sits in the mid 90’s and his changeup is his best secondary. He ran into some trouble at Double-A in his pro debut with a 5.66 ERA in 35 IP, but he was still getting strikeouts with a 40/17 K/BB. I loved him coming out of the draft and I’m still on board. 2022 Projection: 2/4.46/1.35/40 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.98/1.29/175 in 170 IP

151) Steven Kwan CLE, OF, 24.7 – Kwan’s had elite contact rates with an elite plate approach his entire career going back to college, and that continued in the upper levels of the minors with a 9.1%/10.6% K%/BB% in 77 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. And this year to power ticked up, cracking 12 homers in those 77 games as he started to pull the ball more. He’s only 5’9”, 170 pounds, and he’s already 24, so the power potential probably isn’t huge, and he’s not a big base stealer either, although he will nab a handful. Proximity also plays a role in this ranking as he should compete for a starting job in spring. 2022 Projection: 52/11/41/.272/.338/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/19/71/.285/.346/.448/8

152) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 24.6 – Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and is expected to be out until the middle of next season. He also battled shoulder inflammation in 2019 which contributed to an awful season. Assuming his stuff returns completely, the upside is still there, but he was far from a finished product even before all of the injuries over the last 3 seasons. The risk is starting to overshadow the reward. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/3.98/1.33/155 in 140 IP

153) Matt Allan NYM, RHP, 20.11 – Allan underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2021 which may keep him out until towards the end of the 2022 season. When healthy, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus, high spin rate curveball and a changeup that was getting rave reviews at the alt site in 2020. He’s only pitched 10.1 professional innings in his career, and is now undergoing major arm surgery, so the risk is high, but so is the upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.25/175 in 160 IP

154) Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 21.6 – Priester’s fastball was sitting in the low 90’s by the end of the year, and even registered some in the high 80’s. He was in the mid 90’s earlier in the year, so the hope is that he will be able to maintain those numbers as he builds innings and gains strength. His 97.2 IP at High-A was by far the most of his career. He put up a solid 3.04 ERA, but his 24.1%/9.6% K%/BB% was less impressive. He throws a legitimate 5 pitch mix with his curveball as his best secondary. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.08/1.31/166 in 170 IP

155) Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 24.2 – Nelson’s moneymaker is an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which hitters have major trouble picking up. It’s a swing and miss pitch. He combines that with a potentially plus curveball, average slider, and a developing change. His control took a big step forward this year, putting up a respectable 8.2% BB% at Double-A. It all led to a 3.51 ERA with a 104/26 K/BB in 77 IP at Double-A (2.52 ERA in 39.1 IP at High-A). 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.31/165 in 155 IP

156) Drey Jameson ARI, RHP, 24.7 – Jameson has electric stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a plus, put away slider. His fastball command isn’t great, and when he wants to locate it the velocity can drop into the low 90’s. He seems to throw 3 variations of the slider (upper 80’s, mid 80’s, lower 80’s) and all 3 of the pitches are plus. He also mixes in a curve and change, but he mostly goes to his fastball/slider combo. It all led to a pitching line of 3.98/1.21/145/36 in 110.2 IP. He’s only 6’0”, 165 pounds and he looks a bit reliever-ish to me, but hard to argue with the great stuff and strikeout numbers. 2022 Projection: 2/4.32/1.36/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.92/1.32/168 in 150 IP

157) Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 22.10 – Bello rolled through High-A with a 2.27 ERA and 45/7 K/BB in 31.2 IP before meeting his match in Double-A with a 4.66 ERA, but his strikeout rate was still excellent (31.1%) and he had a 3.33 xFIP, so he pitched better than his surface stats. He has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that he can regularly get into the upper 90’s and the potential for 2 plus secondaries in his slider and change. He has solid control, but his command can waver and he doesn’t necessarily consistently hit his spots. If he can improve his control/command, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, but he’ll more likely top out as a mid rotation guy with high K rates. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.30/175 in 165 IP

158) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 21.0 – Bradley relies heavily on his plus mid 90’s fastball which he has above average control of and gets plenty of whiffs with. He combines that with a breaking ball that flashes plus, but is still inconsistent, and a lesser used developing changeup. He rolled right through the lower minors with a pitching line of 1.83/0.93/123/31 in 103.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. Good control of a plus fastball makes him relatively safe, and his ceiling will be determined by how much he can improve his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.25/163 in 160 IP

159) Brailyn Marquez CHC, LHP, 23.2 – It was a lost season for Marquez as he never got on the mound in 2021 due to getting Covid in the spring and then suffering a shoulder strain when he was ramping back up. The stuff is too nasty to just forget about though with an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a changeup that supposedly showed improvement at the alt site in 2020. He needs to improve his control and the shoulder injury adds more risk, but I still love taking a shot on his upside. 2022 Projection: 4/4.15/1.33/76 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.76/1.29/175 in 155 IP

160) DJ Herz CHC, LHP, 21.3 – Herz has a bit of a funky lefty delivery which always wrecks havoc on hitter’s ability to pick up pitches. It can add some injury risk and control problems (4.8 BB/9), so it’s a give and take. He used that delivery to fire 3 potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, curve, and changeup. The stuff is nasty and it led to a pitching line of 3.31/1.05/131/41 in 81.2 IP split between Single-A and High-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.76/1.28/180 in 160 IP

161) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 23.0 – Sanchez reportedly had a setback in his rehab from shoulder surgery and there are also rumors the team is not happy with how he is handling his rehab. On talent alone, Sanchez could rank much higher on this list, but the risk is starting to far outweigh the reward. 2022 Projection: 3/4.23/1.31/45 in 50 IP

162) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 24.7 – Cespedes came as advertised with a plus power/speed combo (8 homers and 18 stolen bases in 72 games split between High-A and Double-A) and a raw plate plate approach (83/16 K/BB). He is so talented that even with the poor plate approach he still managed to put up a 127 wRC+ at High-A (.278 BA) and 108 wRC+ at Double-A (.298 BA). There is also often an adjustment period when Cuban players come stateside. He is one of those players that is likely overrated in more casual leagues because of name value, and underrated in more serious leagues. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/19/73/.252/.316/.424/16

163) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 20.9 – Hendrick was an extreme 3 true outcome slugger in his pro debut, slashing .211/.380/.388 with 7 homers, 4 steals, a 28.4% GB%, and a 37.6%/19.2% K%/BB% in 63 games at Single-A. This is likely who he will always be with a big uppercut lefty swing, although I doubt it will always be to this extreme level. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/28/85/.240/.332/.473/6

164) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 21.8 – Rojas is an explosive player with strong contact rates, plus speed, and plus raw power, but he still hasn’t put it all together with high groundball rates. He struggled at Single-A in 78 games with a 86 wRC+ before catching fire in his 17 game High-A debut with 3 homers and a 161 wRC+. He has a nice blend of upside due to his power/speed combo and floor due to his contact rates. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/17/73/.278/.326/.426/18

165) Hendry Mendez MIL, OF, 18.5 – Mendez was one of the most advanced hitters in the Dominican Summer League with a 3.1%/10.9% K%/BB% in 21 games. He was then promoted to stateside rookie ball and raked there too with a 138 wRC+ and 13.5%/13.5% K%/BB%. He only hit 1 homer in 40 games, but he is a projectable 6’2”, 175 pounds with plenty of power projection. He has the potential for plus hit and power at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/22/79/.280/.350/.480/9

166) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 18.1 – Chourio checked in at #922 on my 2021 Top 1,000 after signing for $1.8 million, and he delivered on that promise in his pro debut, slashing, .296/.386/.447 with 5 homers, 8 steals, and a 14.8%/12.2% K%/BB% in 45 games in the DSL. He’s an advanced hitter with plus speed, and at a projectable 6’1”, 165 pounds, he has the chance to develop above average power at least. He’s a great high upside shot to take. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.268/.339/.437/14

167) Manuel Beltre TOR, SS, 17.10 – Beltre was known for his advanced plate approach and plus contact rates coming into pro ball, and he lived up to his scouting report to a T with a 13.9%/17.6% K%/BB%. His 46.9% flyball percentage was likely part of the reason for his low .225 BA, but when his power inevitable ticks up, that high flyball rate will lead to plenty of dingers. Now is the time to buy into Beltre. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/21/81/.281/.359/.462/11

168) Colson Montgomery CHW, SS, 20.4 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Montgomery is a big lefty with big power potential. He’s not fast, but he’s not a lumbering slugger either as he was a standout basketball player too. On the downside, he’s old for the high school class and there are swing and miss concerns. He had a solid but unspectacular pro debut, slashing .287/.396/.362 with 0 homers, a 59.4% GB%, 0 steals and a 19.8%/11.7% K%/BB% in 26 games in rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/23/80/.263/.335/.457/6

169) Gunnar Hoglund TOR, RHP, 22.4 – Selected 19th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Hoglund underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to be out until mid-season 2022. When healthy, he uses an easy, rhythmic delivery that produces high spin rates and plus control/command over a 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). All of his pitches have the potential to be above average and play up because of his command. He dominated before the injury with a pristine 13.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 (2.87 ERA). Fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s could be the last piece to top of the rotation potential. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 13/3.77/1.19/185 in 171 IP

170) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 20.8 – Harrison uses a funky, almost sidearm lefty delivery to rack up strikeouts (35.7% K% in 98.2 IP at Single-A), but it also comes with command issues (11.8% BB%). His fastball is a plus pitch and he combines that with a potentially plus slider and much improved changeup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.32/191 in 170 IP

171) Hunter Bishop SFG, OF, 23.9 – Bishop missed almost the entire season with a shoulder injury, but he returned in time for the Arizona Fall League where he’s slashing .269/.345/.462 with 5 doubles, 0 homers, 0 steals, and a 12/1 K/BB in 8 games. The athleticism and plus power/speed combo are still there, but he’s missed a lot of development time and the hit tool is a question. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 81/23/74/.250/.340/.450/9

172) Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 22.9 – Henry’s been one of the most impressive pitchers in the AFL with a pitching line of 3.32/1.11/30/9 in 19 IP. This coming off his utter domination of High-A (1.88/0.79/63/11 in 43 IP). He’s 6’4”, 225 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and curve. He has good control over all of his pitches. I like him a ton. This off-season is definitely a great time to buy in while the price is low. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.86/1.27/189 in 174 IP

173) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 23.5 – Strider made his pro debut in 2021 and made it all the way to the majors for 2.1. IP. He racked up strikeouts in the minors with a plus fastball/slider combo, putting up a 153/40 K/BB with a 3.64 ERA in 94 IP at mostly Double-A. His fastball consistently hits the upper 90’s, and the slider is potentially plus, but without a real third pitch there is a reliever risk. 2022 Projection: 2/4.25/1.33/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.01/1.30/162 in 150 IP

174) Ryan Murphy SFG, RHP, 22.6 – Murphy steamrolled through the lower levels of the minors with pitching line of 2.52/0.91/164/26 in 107.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He shows good control of a traditional 4 pitch mix with a low 90’s fastball, plus curveball, above average slider, and developing change. If he can add a few MPH to his fastball, watch out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.89/1.23/188 in 175 IP

175) Will Bednar SFG, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 14th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Bednar has MLB bloodlines with his brother, David, breaking out in Pittsburgh’s pen. Will throws low to mid 90’s heat with a plus slider and a developing changeup. His numbers in the SEC have been very good with a pitching line of 3.22/1.14/136/26 in 89.1 IP over 2020-21. There isn’t huge upside, but landing in San Francisco is the best possible spot for a pitching prospect. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.29/173 in 165 IP

176) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 20.9 – Tovar is a plus contact (12.2% K%), plus speed (24 for 30 on the bases) ballplayer who showed more power than expected in 2021 with 15 homers in 104 games split between Single-A and High-A. He didn’t walk much with a 3.6% BB%, but maybe he can end up something like Raimel Tapia with a little more power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/14/63/.280/.325/.410/18

177) Peyton Battenfield CLE, RHP, 24.8 – Battenfield is 6’4”, 224 pounds with an overhand delivery that causes some uncomfortable at bats. His fastball is plus and can regularly hit the mid 90’s. He combines that with a slower, loopy-ish curveball, a lesser used changeup that flashes plus, and a hard cutter/slider. Everything played up because of his elite control, leading to a 2.53 ERA with a 131/19 K/BB in 103 IP at mostly Double-A, although he has never shown that level of control before, so it will be interesting to see if he can truly maintain that level. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 11/4.04/1.24/178 in 174 IP

Tier 6

178) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 18.9 – Selected 54th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Baez was one of the youngest players in the draft and has one of the best power projections, notching a 102 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event. He’s also relatively fast with a 6.67 60 yard dash time, showing he is not just a lumbering slugger. He doesn’t project for major strikeout issues, but there is some swing and miss to his game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.253/.336/.473/8

179) Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 23.5 – Expected to sign with Chicago in the upcoming international free agent period for $2.7 million. Colas used to be a two way player, but is now focusing solely on hitting. He’s a built up 6’1”, 209 pounds with a smooth and powerful lefty swing that is reminiscent of many successful lefthanded power hitters. He has a strong history of production in Cuba and Japan professional leagues, showing present plus power. There is plenty of inherent, unknown risks, but I would be willing to take a shot on him. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/26/83/.262/.331/.483/6

180) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 17.6 – Montes is a 6’4”, 205 pound power hitting beast with good athleticism. Just check out this video of him demolishing the ball, and listen to the sound off the bat. The power hitting upside is obvious. He’s one of my favorite FYPD targets this year. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/27/85/.258/.336/.482/5

181) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 18.5 – Diaz struggled in his first taste of pro ball with an 89 wRC+ and 27.7% K% in 24 games in the DSL. He was getting better as the season went along, and 24 games is a very small sample, so I wouldn’t panic based on the slow start to his career. He still has all the tools that made him a high priced international signing, but he obviously has a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.267/.333/.450/12

182) Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 23.10 – Gil made his MLB debut in 2021 and he held his own, showing off a nasty fastball/slider combo. The fastball sat 96.1 MPH and the slider put up a .234 xwOBA with a 37.5% whiff% in 29.1 IP. He’s still wild with a 5.1 BB/9 in 79.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, and the changeup wasn’t much of a weapon in the majors with a 7.3% usage rate and .529 xwOBA, but this is a bet on the stuff. 2022 Projection: 3/4.31/1.38/87 in 72 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.81/1.34/184 in 168 IP

183) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 23.7 – Allen has pitched well at every stop of his career going back to 2018. He made quick work of High-A in his pro debut with a 1.58 ERA and 67/13 K/BB in 55.1 IP before getting promoted to Double-A and more or less doing the same with a 2.85 ERA and 76/13 K/BB in 60 IP. He throws low 90’s heat with a plus changeup and average curve, so the stuff doesn’t necessarily jump out at you. He also isn’t exactly an intimidating presence on the mound at 6’0”, 190 pounds. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.25/171 in 168 IP

184) Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 23.4 – Eder underwent Tommy John surgery and will likely miss all of 2022. It was a really disappointing end to what was otherwise an eye opening season for the young lefty. He was cruising right through Double-A with his mid 90’s heat and at least plus curve, putting up a pitching line of 1.77/0.98/99/27 in 71.1 IP. If not for the injury, he very well could have competed for #2 overall on this list, but missing an entire year and the added injury risk has him dropping a bit for me. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/179 in 165 IP

185) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 21st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wicks is a safe pick that is more appealing the deeper the league is. His money maker is a double plus changeup that he relies on heavily. The fastball sits in the low 90’s and he has two average-ish breaking balls with his slider being the better of the two pitches. He had a pitching line of 3.70/1.28/118/28 in 92.1 IP in the Big 12, so while that is solid, he hasn’t exactly been lights out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.09/1.28/176 in 173 IP

186) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 22.8 – Selected 23rd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Williams always had the big fastball which can now reach 100 MPH, and in 2021 his control (2.3 BB/9) and secondaries (curve, slider, change) took big steps forward en route to a pitching line of 1.88/0.96/130/21 in 81.1 IP. He’s old for the class and has major reliever risk, but the stuff is exciting. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.03/1.34/164 in 151 IP

187) Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Selected 60th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Gelof is 6’3”, 205 pounds with plus power to all fields. He hit only 9 homers in 63 games in the ACC this year, but Virginia’s home ballpark is notorious for suppressing power. He proved the power was real in his pro debut, smashing 7 homers with a 143 wRC+ in 32 games at Single-A before going 7 for 12 in his 3 game Triple-A cup of coffee. He’s also a good athlete with a very successful career on the bases in college which carried over into pro ball (13 steals in 15 attempts). He’s one of my favorite under the radar first year player draft targets. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/24/79/.261/.326/.462/8

188) Ty Madden DET, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Madden uses an overhead delivery that vaguely reminds me a bit of Ian Anderson to throw a traditional 4-pitch mix highlighted by mid-90’s heat. He struggled with control in 2019, but was much better in 2020 and that was carried over somewhat in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.41/1.05/119/39 in 100.2 IP. He’s a relatively safe starter with some upside still in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.97/1.29/175 in 175 IP

189) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 18th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McGreevy is a control artist who had a 1.5 BB/9 in his college career over 189.1 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a low 90’s sinker and 3 secondaries (curve-best secondary, slider, change), but he’s young for his class and there could be more in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.26/158 in 170 IP

190) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 19.7 – A stress fracture in his back ended what was shaping up to be an excellent pro debut for Carter. He was an 18 year old in full season ball and he walked more than he struck out with a 19.2%/23.3% K%/BB%. He hit only two homers, but at 6’4”, 190 pounds and with a 37.2% GB%, more power is definitely coming. He also has plus speed with 12 steals in 32 games. The advanced plate approach gives him a safe floor, and the upside is high if he can get stronger as he matures, which seems like a good bet to make. If he didn’t get hurt, he would have likely placed much higher on this list. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/21/74/.274/.345/.441/13

191) Caleb Kilian CHC, RHP, 24.10 – Kilian is 6’4”, 180 pounds with an advanced feel for pitching and elite control. He put up a 112/13 K/BB with a 2.42 ERA at mostly Double-A. The stuff isn’t necessarily that great with a low 90’s fastball that he can ramp up into the mid 90’s, a potentially plus curve, and average change. He projects as a mid to back end starter who should have a strong WHIP which helps for fantasy. 2022 Projection; Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.23/157 in 165 IP

192) Tommy Romero TBR, RHP, 24.9 – Romero dominated the upper levels of the minors with a pitching of 2.61/0.96/145/31 in 110.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. Romero does most of his damage with a plus fastball that can reach the mid 90’s, and he combines that with two solid secondaries in his curve and change. Plus command helps everything play up. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.26/155 in 153

193) Owen White TEX, RHP, 22.8 – White broke his hand during his first start of the season in Single-A didn’t return until August, limiting him to 63.2 IP including the AFL. He was one of the most impressive pitchers in the AFL, showing off a dominant mid 90’s fastball and 3 quality secondaries in his curve, slider, and change. This was his first year pitching pro ball and he hasn’t faced advanced competition, so the track record is short, but the plus stuff gives him legitimate upside. He’s a great pitcher to take a shot on in off-season prospect drafts, and depending on the league you should be able to get pretty late. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.02/1.28/178 in 165 IP

194) Michael Toglia COL, 1B, 23.8 – Toglia is a 6’5”, 226 pound switch hitter with plus power (22 homers in 115 games split between High-A and Double-A), but his strikeout rates have been very high even going back to his college days (28.5% K% in 2021). I’m also not sure his power is quite big enough to make up for the strikeout problems, although Coors can obviously mask some of these problems. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/25/79/.246/.323/.464/5

195) Brandon Williamson SEA, LHP, 24.0 – Williamson is a tall and lanky 6’6”, 210 pounds which always makes for an uncomfortable at-bat. His stuff isn’t huge with a low 90’s fastball, potentially plus breaking ball and developing change, but it was mighty effective vs. Double-A batters with a 3.48 ERA and 33%/8.1% K%/BB%. 2022 Projection: 3/4.31/1.36/53 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.10/1.31/174 in 166 IP

196) Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 21.3 – Grissom’s advanced plate approach transferred to full season ball with a 14.2%/11.8% K%/BB% in 87 games split between Single-A and High-A. He hit only 7 homers and his GB% was high, but at 6’3”, 180 pounds there should be more in the tank. He was 16 for 19 on the bases, and while he’s not a true burner and it’s hard to trust stolen base numbers in the lower minors, he should contribute in steals. He has average to above average across the board potential. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/20/76/.273/.347/.448/9

197) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 18.7 – The scouting report didn’t change much on Pineda this season. He’s a high risk/high reward prospect with a plus power/speed combo and hit tool concerns. He performed very well as a 17 year old in stateside rookie ball with a 121 wRC+ in 23 games, but he also struck out a lot in both the Dominican League (32.5% K% in 10 games) and the Arizona Complex League (36.4%). ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.245/.332/.452/14

198) Max Muncy OAK, SS, 19.6 – Selected 25th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Muncy is in the 99th percentile of the high school class for exit velocity and in the 95th percentile for bat speed (according to Perfect Game). He projects for only average speed and he also has some hit tool risk, evidenced by a 35.3% K% in his 11 game pro debut, but the dude can put a charge into the ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/22/84/.258/.330/.447/9

199) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 19.0 – Selected 26th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Petty slings a mid 90’s fastball that has hit over 100 MPH from a 3/4 arm slot. His slider and changeup are both a work in progress but both flash above average potential. There is some reliever risk, but Petty has the upside to end up the top prep pitcher in this draft class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.28/183 in 171 IP

200) Ryan Cusick ATL, RHP, 22.5 – Selected 24th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the ball absolutely explodes out of Cusick’s hand with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a plus curve. He racks up strikeouts with 108 K’s in 70 IP, but control is a major issue with 32 walks, and his 4.24 ERA (1.39 WHIP) isn’t exactly great. His control looked better in his small sample pro debut with 4 walks in 16.1 IP at Single-A, and it didn’t impact his K rate at all with 34 strikeouts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.33/169 in 158 IP

201) Geraldo Perdomo ARI, SS, 22.5 – It was a tale of 2 halves for Perdomo who had a .482 OPS in his first 53 games, and then put up a .986 in his final 43 games. The truth is probably somewhere in between as Perdomo projects for solid across the board production. He’ll need a power breakout to really become an impact player. 2022 Projection: 22/2/16/.242/.303/.373/3 Prime Projection: 78/17/62/.275/.342/.422/11

202) Xzavion Curry CLE, RHP, 23.8 – Curry’s breaking balls (curve, slider) are a thing of beauty and are at least plus pitches. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but it is a very effective pitch. He pounds the strike zone and it led to pitching line of 2.30/0.89/123/16 in 97.2 IP at mostly High-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.94/1.24/169 in 165 IP

203) Josh Winder MIN, RHP, 25.5 – Right shoulder impingement ended Winder’s season in late July after 72 IP. When healthy, he showed good control of a mid 90’s fastball with his best secondary being a nasty hard changeup that he throws around 90 MPH (he also throws a mid 80’s change). Both of his breaking balls are solid pitches too. 2022 Projection: 3/4.35/1.34/62 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 11/4.00/1.28/176 in 173 IP

204) Matt Canterino MIN, RHP, 24.3 – A right elbow strain limited Canterino to just 23 IP at mostly High-A, but boy did look dominant in those innings with a 0.78 ERA and a 45/4 K/BB. He throws a plus fastball/slider combo with a changeup that has shown improvement and solid curve too. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.31/175 in 167 IP

205) Jordan Balazovic MIN, RHP, 23.6 – Balazovic’s best pitch is his mid 90’s fastball which he does an excellent job of commanding, but the secondaries leave something to be desired. The curveball is average and he completely scrapped his changeup towards the end of the year for a splitter. The splitter shows some promise but it’s far from a proven pitch. He had a solid season at Double-A with a pitching line of 3.62/1.40/102/38 in 97 IP, but the secondaries will need to improve if he wants to be an impact MLB starter. 2022 Projection: 1/4.58/1.40/41 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.24/1.33/155 in 161 IP

206) Kyle Isbel KCR, OF, 25.1 – Isbel put up a .772 OPS in his 83 PA MLB debut, but his xStats were terrible with a well below average .251 xwOBA. His best skill is his plus speed (28.2 ft/sec sprint speed), and he’s been a very successful base stealer through he minor league career (57 for 72 in 228 games). He’s made contact his entire career and that continued in the majors with a slightly above average 23.9% whiff%. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to really do damage, but his exit velocity numbers were merely below average (87.3 MPH EV), they weren’t terrible. He definitely has the skills for some moderate across the board production. 2022 Projection: 58/12/53/.252/.321/.406/15

207) Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.0 – Winn might actually have a shot at being a two way player as he has explosive tools as both a pitcher and hitter. At the very least it gives him a legitimate back up plan if he can’t make enough of an impact at the plate. As for his hitting, he didn’t show much power in his pro debut with only 5 homers in 97 games split between Single-A and High-A, but there is more power coming down the line, and he had the wheels working with 32 steals in 37 attempts (obligatory disclaimer: rule changes made stealing bases easier at Single-A and High-A). He put up a 112 wRC+ in 61 games at Single-A before struggling at High-A with a 48 wRC+ in 36 games. As a pitcher, St. Louis gave him one inning towards the end of the season to show his stuff, and he impressed with a mid 90’s fastball and a nasty breaking ball. He pitched a clean inning with one K. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/15/62/.261/.320/.415/17 – 2/3.95/1.31/36 in 30 IP

208) Richie Palacios CLE, 2B, 24.11 – Palacios opened some eyes in the AFL, slashing .269/.387/.513 with 3 homers, 4 steals and a 15/13 K/BB in 20 games. It is a continuation of what he did at Double-A and Triple-A this year with a plus plate approach, plus speed and some pop. He has a big, fun lefty swing that is geared to rack up doubles, but at 5’10”, 180 pounds, and already at 24 years old, I’m not sure how much more over the fence power we can project. Either way, he definitely has the potential to chip in a little bit in every category if given the playing time. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 76/14/63/.266/.332/.416/18

209) Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 25.1 – Burdick went full 3 true outcome slugger on us this season, slashing .224/.367/.456 with 23 homers, 9 steals, and a 146/79 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Double-A. I would be cautious in 5×5 AVG leagues, but in medium to deep OBP leagues he could be a solid under the radar target right now considering his proximity to the bigs. 2022 Projection: 33/11/28/.212/.301/.424/3 Prime Projection: 78/26/77/.228/.322/452/8

210) Gabriel Arias CLE, SS, 22.1 – Arias quietly put together a rock solid season at Triple-A at barely 21 years old. He slashed .284/.348/.454 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.8%/8.1% K%/BB% in 115 games. It was good for a 115 wRC+. Showing the improved hit tool was a major step, because the plus raw power is in there if he can lower his 50.2% GB%. He’s a plus defender whose glove will get him playing time, and while the bat is still raw, he showed more refinement than expected this year. 2022 Projection: 18/4/21/.244/.302/.422/1 Prime Projection: 75/24/83/.265/.327/.454/6

211) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 23.4 – Burleson was drafted 70th overall in 2020 on the back of his strong hit tool, but there was definitely more power in the tank at 6’2”, 212 pounds. That power was unleashed in 2021 as he cracked 22 homers in 119 games split between 3 levels (A+/AA/AAA). He didn’t sacrifice his hit tool to get to it either as he put up a 20.1%/8.3% K%/BB%. The ceiling might not be huge, but he has a chance to be a damn good overall hitter. 2022 Projection: 8/2/11/.245/.300/.410/0 Prime Projection: 68/20/75/.273/.330/.453/2

212) Nelson Velazquez CHC, OF, 23.3 – Velazquez put on a show at the Arizona Fall League, slashing .385/.480/.712 with 9 homers and a 27.6%/13.8% K%/BB% in 26 games. This coming off his destruction of Double-A with a .938 OPS in 34 games. He didn’t fair as well at High-A (.776 OPS with a 33.7% K%), but he was still hitting for power with 12 homers in 69 games. He rips the ball extremely hard and he has some speed too with 17 steals in 19 attempts in 103 games. The plate approach still needs refinement and there is hit tool risk, but he has very fantasy friendly upside. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 74/26/83/.247/.321/.478/8

213) JJ Bleday MIA, OF, 24.4 – The good news is that Bleday isn’t overmatched by pro pitching, putting up a 21.6%/13.7% K%/BB% in 110 games at Double-A. The bad news is that he just isn’t doing enough damage when does make contact with 12 homers and a 97 wRC+. It makes me think he will be able to hold his own in the majors too, and he is lifting the ball with a 47.3% FB%, but the upside just seems extremely limited right now. 2022 Projection: 16/2/13/.222/.291/.384/1 Prime Projection: 66/18/71/.245/.308/.418/3

214) Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.1 – Ramos was only 19 but he already looks physically mature out there. He had a strong year in full season ball with 13 homers, a 21.8%/10.1% K%/BB%, and a 109 wRC+ in 115 games at Single-A. He projects for plus power at peak and he has a solid feel to hit too. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/23/78/.265/.328/.453/5

215) Rece Hinds CIN, 3B, 21.7 – Hinds was limited to 54 games with a torn meniscus, but he was back for the last month+ of the season and got right back to raking. He’s 6’4”, 215 pounds with huge raw power and he got to a lot of it with 10 homers and a 47.2% flyball percentage in 43 games at Single-A. The plate approach still needs a lot of work with a 28.1%/7% K%/BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 75/29/85/.244/.318/.478/6

216) Deyvison De Los Santos ARI, 3B, 18.9 – De Los Santos showed off his at least plus power in his pro debut with 8 homers in 62 games split between rookie ball (162 wRC+ in 25 games) and Single-A (101 wRC+ in 37 games). Considering he will still be 18 years old when the 2022 season starts, that is quite impressive. He strikes out a lot (26.3% K%) and he hits the ball on the ground too much (57.3% GB% at Single-A), which isn’t the best combination to have. He has the raw power to make up for that, so maybe he can end up with a Franmil Reyes like profile, although Franmil has 4 inches and 80 pounds on the guy right now. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.241/.322/.476/5

217) Cody Morris CLE, RHP, 25.5 – Shoulder soreness delayed the start of Morris’ season until July and limited him to 61 IP. He dominated in those 61 innings with a pitching line of 1.62/1.00/93/20 at mostly Triple-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with two potentially plus secondaries in his curve and change. He pitched pretty short outings, only reaching 5 IP twice, and there are still some consistency issues with his fastball and curve. He has mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 3/4.37/1.34/48 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.31/157 in 155 IP

218) Ian Lewis MIA, 2B, 19.2 – Lewis showed an exciting combination of tools in his pro debut, slashing .302/.354/.497 with 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 14.9%/6.8% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with plus speed and good feel to hit. He’ll need to refine his approach and hit the ball on the ground less, but there is fantasy friendly upside here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/19/73/.263/.318/.447/13

Tier 7

219) Mason Martin PIT, 1B, 22.10 – Martin does nothing but mash, and I mean that as a kinda backhanded compliment. He smacked 25 homers in 120 games at mostly Double-A (3 homers in 8 games at Triple-A), but he struck out a ton (34.3% K%), and he didn’t really a walk a lot either (7.8% BB%). He literally almost did nothing but mash. He was as 21/22 year old in the upper levels of the minors, so I think it is fair to expect more maturation of his plate approach over time, and if you are only going to do one thing well, ripping homers ain’t a bad thing to choose. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/26/82/.235/.319/.472/2

220) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 23.3 – Waters is a great athlete with plus speed and plus power potential, but his warts are starting to overshadow his strengths. He put up a .710 OPS with a 30.9% K% and 19.6% FB% in 103 games at Triple-A. Striking out a lot and hitting the ball on the ground is not a great combo, although his speed (28 stolen bases) can make up for some of that. There is plenty of time for it to click, but the Waters’ doubters were proven right in 2021. 2022 Projection: 9/1/8/.217/.280/.373/2 Prime Projection: 74/15/68/.242/.313/.414/12

221) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 23.5 – Vasquez put up a 1.52 ERA with a 130/38 K/BB split between 3 levels (Single-A/High-A/Double-A) on the back of his high spin rate, plus curveball. The fastball can miss bats too, getting up to 96 MPH. He still needs to work on his control and his changeup, and there is bullpen risk, but the fastball/curve combo is legitimately filthy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.31/169 in 158 IP

222) Hans Crouse PHI, RHP, 23.6 – Crouse bounced back from a down 2019 with a pitching line of 3.28/1.06/98/34 in 85 IP at mostly Double-A. He made it all the way up to the majors to close out the season for two starts where he showed a filthy slider that put up a 47.8 whiff%. He pairs that with a plus fastball and above average change. He’s likely a back end starter, but he is line to pitch plenty of innings for the Phillies in 2021, and there is mid-rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 4/4.46/1.38/81 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.32/163 in 170 IP

223) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 86th overall in 2021 MLB Draft, Binelas is a built up 6’3”, 225 pounds with plus power and hit tool concerns. He’s done nothing but crush homers in his career, hitting 14 dingers in 59 games in the ACC in 2019, 19 dingers in 50 ACC games in 2021, and then 9 dingers in 29 games in his pro debut at Single-A. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/78/.245/.317/.472/1

224) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 21.10 – Selected 41st overall, Norby put up eye popping numbers in the American Athletic Conference, slashing .415/.484/.659 with 15 homers, 18 steals, and a 34/33 K/BB in 61 games. He carried over that success into pro ball with a 135 wRC+ in 26 games at Single-A. He doesn’t have huge raw power at 5’10”, 187 pounds, and his groundball rates were relatively high in his pro debut, but he’s setting up to be a very good all around hitter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/18/77/.273/.337/.438/9

225) Izaac Pacheco DET, SS, 19.5 – Selected 39th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Pacheco is built up with a smooth and powerful lefthanded swing. He has big power potential and a patient plate approach, but it comes with some swing and miss concerns which he showed in his pro debut with a 34.4% K% in 30 games. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/23/79/.253/.338/.450/4

226) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Williams was one of the youngest players in his class and still stepped right into pro ball and performed well with a 130 wRC+ in 11 games. He has a good feel to hit with quick bat speed, and at 6’2”, 180 pounds more power is definitely coming as he matures. He also has some speed. He’s shaping up to be an above average all category contributor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/22/80/.268/.333/.447/9

227) Arol Vera LAA, SS, 19.7 – Vera wasn’t able to get to any of his power in his pro debut with 0 homers and high groundball rates in 57 games split between rookie ball and Single-A, but he was able to show off a good feel to hit. He hit .317 with a 23.8% K% at rookie ball and then hit .280 with a 22.2% K% as an 18 year old at Single-A. He’s a switch hitter with a lightening quick swing that should produce plenty of power when he gets older, so establishing a strong hit tool was a great start to his career. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/22/79/.266/.326/.443/7

228) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 18.11 – Selected 27th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Merrill surely looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a sweet looking lefty swing. He was solid in his pro debut with a 22.5%/8.3% K%/BB% and 5 steals in 31 games, but he hit 0 homers and put up a 92 wRC+. He doesn’t really have a standout offensive skill, but you don’t have to be a super scout to watch him and realize there is definitely potential in the bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/21/79/.262/.327/.438/7

229) Jonathan Aranda TBR, 1B/2B/3B, 23.10 – Aranda lowered his high GB% to career low 35.7% at Double-A and it led to a power breakout with 10 homers in 79 games. His K% did take a small hit in the process, but it was still an excellent 19.6%. He’s shaping up to be that classic Rays utility player who will have to earn playing time every step of the way. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/18/66/.278/.342/.446/3

230) Lonnie White PIT, OF, 19.3 – Selected 64th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, White had committed to Penn State, my alma mater, for baseball and football (wide receiver), and he definitely has the WR body at 6’3”, 205 pounds. That shows the type of athlete we are talking about here. He has some of the highest upside in the draft with a potentially plus power/speed combo, but the hit tool is still raw. He hit 2 homers with a 42.4% K% in his 9 game pro debut. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/28/84/.244/.317/.474/13

231) Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 19.4 – Selected 37th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Solometo is a big lefty with a funky delivery that is a little reminiscent of Josh Hader when he was in the minors. His fastball isn’t as big as Hader’s, sitting in the low to mid 90’s, but he does have the plus swing and miss breaking ball. He lacks a third pitch, but I’m a sucker for this type of pitcher. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.27/178 in 165 IP

232) Roberto Campos DET, OF, 18.10 – Campos went yard on the very first pitch of his professional career, which surely has to be a sign of things to come. He’s already 6’3”, 200 pounds with plus power, blasting 8 homers in 39 games at stateside rookie ball, but it comes with some strikeouts (26.5%/11% K%/BB%). He’s shaping up to be your classic power and patience slugger. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/27/85/.256/.339/.475/5

233) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 21.10 – Power broke out with 17 homers in 98 games at Double-A (played 1 game at Triple-A), and the plate approach remained strong with a 22%/13.7% K%/BB%. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he should be in the top 12 catcher conversation at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/20/73/.271/.342/.448/2

234) Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/3B, 23.1 – Cabrera was quietly having an excellent season at Double-A with a 114 wRC+, 24 homers and 20 steals in 109 games, but his season got a lot louder when he went to Triple-A to close out the year, ripping 5 homers in 9 games. The tools aren’t necessarily huge and the Yanks have been playing him all over the infield which seems to point to a utility role, but it’s hard to ignore those power/speed numbers. 2022 Projection: 15/2/11/.243/.294/.393/2 Prime Projection: 78/19/74/.268/.318/.431/12

235) Jake Burger CHW, 3B, 26.0 – Burger got his career back on track after tearing both Achilles tendons which kept him out for all of 2018 and 2019. He ripped 18 homers in 82 games at Triple-A and then proved that power was legit in his MLB debut with a 98 MPH EV and .807 OPS in 42 PA. There are strikeout issues and he doesn’t have a clear path to playing time, but he has a chance to mash if he can find the playing time. 2022 Projection: 26/8/31/.244/.311/.459 Prime Projection: 72/26/86/.252/.338/.477/0

236) Xavier Edwards TB, 2B/3B, 22.8 – Edwards had a terrible year on the bases with 19 steals in 30 attempts over 79 games at Double-A. He hit 0 homers and has little to no power, so it’s hard to buy in if you can’t count on difference making steal totals. He still hits for elite contact with a 12.5%/10.7% K%/BB%, so he’s shaping up to be in that Luis Arraez/David Fletcher/Adam Frazier tier with more speed, but possibly not true difference making speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/5/61/.276/.347/.405/16

237) Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 19.5 – Quero is a potentially plus defensive catcher who swings a lightening quick bat and showed an elite plate approach in his pro debut, slashing .309/.434/.500 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 12%/14.5% K%/BB% in 23 games in rookie ball. A separated non throwing shoulder which eventually required surgery ended his season in late August. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.275/.351/.450/3

238) Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 24.8 – McCarthy is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time, but he has a very fantasy friendly profile if he can win some. He put up an elite 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut and was 29 for 33 on the bases in 85 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much and showed some swing and miss this year, but if you are looking for a close to the majors option with legitimate upside, McCarthy is your guy. 2022 Projection: 43/7/31/.235/.303/.389/10 Prime Projection: 76/14/65/.247/.317/.424/21

239) AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B, 20.7 – Vukovich is 6’5”, 210 pounds and was drafted 119th overall in 2020 for his huge raw power. He started to get to some of that power this year, smashing 10 homers in 62 games at Single-A before being promoted to High-A and ripping 3 homers in 30 games. He was a basketball star in high school and he showed off some of that athleticism with 16 steals, although speed isn’t expected to be a major part of his game at maturity. The plate approach is still raw with a 26.3%/5.5% BB%, but he’s an excellent power prospect who isn’t getting much hype. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.248/.311/.453/5

240) Joe Perez HOU, 3B, 22.8 – Perez initially struggled after getting called up to Double-A (.532 OPS in first 31 games), but he closed the season out on fire, slashing .306/.369/.531 with 7 homers and a 45/16 K/BB in 38 games. He also destroyed the lower levels of the minors before hitting Double-A. He has a simple right handed swing and shows power to all fields, but it will come with some K’s and he’s not expected to hit for a high average. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/26/84/.258/.327/.469/3

241) Khalil Lee NYM, OF, 23.9 – Lee has put up elite walk rates throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in 2021 with a career high 18.3% BB% in 102 games at Triple-A. It led to an impressive .951 OPS. He also has plus speed and plus raw power, but his high groundball rates (51.5%) and poor stolen base percentage (8 for 18 in 2021) makes it hard to project big homer and steal totals. His strikeout rates have also always been high with a 29.6% mark in 2021. It’s an interesting mix of tools and skills that has a very wide range of outcomes. 2022 Projection: 31/5/27/.222/.308/.391/4 Prime Projection: 77/18/74/.244/.333/.431/12

242) Jose Rodriguez CHW, SS, 20.11 – Rodriguez has the potential for all category production on the back of his plus contact rates (14.4% K%), above average speed (30 steals in 111 games) and developing power (14 homers). He doesn’t walk much with a 5.2% BB%, so his value takes a hit in an OBP League. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/68/.276/.322/.417/15

243) Carlos Jorge CIN, SS/2B, 18.6 – Jorge was a DSL standout in 47 games with a plus plate approach (17%/12.8% K%/BB%), plus speed (27 steals), and a bit of pop (3 homers). It was good for a 174 wRC+. He was known for his good feel to hit and at least plus speed when he signed, so how much power he gets to will determine his ultimate ceiling. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/15/69/.265/.332/.415/18

244) Adael Amador COL, SS, 19.2 – Amador cracked my 2021 Top 1,000 ranking at #949 on the back of his plus hit tool and advanced plate approach. He proved that scouting report correct by slashing .299/.394/.445 with 4 homers, 10 steals in 17 attempts, and a 14.5%/13.5% K%/BB% in 47 games at the DSL. There might not ever be huge homer or steal totals, but the guy is a natural hitter. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/20/73/.280/.340/.447/9

245) Brice Turang MIL, SS, 22.4 – Turang is a high floor, low ceiling prospect who has shown an excellent plate approach at every minor league level. He’s not likely to put up big power/speed numbers, but he’s the type to chip in a little bit in every category. 2022 Projection: 16/1/11/.251/.319/.386/2 Prime Projection: 83/16/69/.272/.345/.417/15

246) Josh H. Smith TEX, SS, 24.8 – Smith is a natural hitter with plus contact rates and a high batting average going back to his freshman year in the SEC. He put up a 15.7%/14.2% K%/BB% in 30 games at Double-A after his trade to Texas. He doesn’t have big raw power or pure speed, but he still managed hit 13 homers with 26 steals in 78 games. I know Adam Eaton is a bit of a dirty word around fantasy circles, but that is the type of profile we are talking about here. 2022 Projection: 15/2/9/.262/.324/.401/3 Prime Projection: 78/18/61/.277/.338/.421/11

247) Kevin Smith TOR, SS/3B, 25.9 – Smith’s terrible 2019 put a screeching halt to his prospect hype, but he bounced back in a big way in 2021, slashing .285/.370/.561 with 21 homers, 18 steals, and a 23.7%/11.2% K%/BB% in 94 games at Triple-A. It earned him a promotion to the majors where he struggled in 36 PA. The hit tool is still a risk, and playing time is going to be a problem, but his above average to plus power/speed combo is enticing for fantasy owners if he does find playing time. 2022 Projection: 18/5/21/.231/.293/.420/3 Prime Projection: 66/19/72/.242/.308/.441/10

248) Tyler Callihan CIN, 2B, 21.9 – A right elbow injury ended Callihan’s season after just 23 games at Single-A. He has a pretty lefthanded swing that produces hard contact, and he has strong contact rates with a 13.1%/8.1% K%/BB%. He was a bit old for the level, and he has some defensive questions, but the ingredients are there for an above average to plus hit/power profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/21/77/.268/.327/.448/4

249) Aaron Bracho CLE, 2B, 20.11 – Bracho was one of my worst misses in 2021, and while I still think he can bounce back, his value has undoubtedly taken a dive. His good feel to hit didn’t transfer to full season ball at all with a 31.9% K% and a .174 BA in 70 games at High-A. He skipped over Single-A completely, which was obviously a mistake in hindsight. His high walk rates (11.5% BB%) and low GB% (31.4%) did transfer, so if his hit tool can bounce back when he is more age appropriate for High-A, the production will come. I wouldn’t completely give up on him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 62/18/66/.232/.308/.423/4

250) Samad Taylor TOR, 2B, 23.8 – Taylor’s power broke out at Double-A with 16 homers in 87 games, but his K% rose with it to a career worth 29.4%. He’s showing those same strikeout issues in the Dominican Winter League with a .174 BA and 10/0 K/BB in 8 games. He has plus speed with 30 steals in 38 attempts and he’s a patient hitter with a 11.2% BB%, so while the risk is high, so is the upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.248/.325/.436/16

251) Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 21.8 – Selected 33rd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Black dominated the Horizon League with a 1.179 OPS in 48 games, but he had a rough pro debut where his K% spiked to 28.2% in 23 games at Single-A (.660 OPS). His mature plate approach and good feel to hit are his best skills, but he doesn’t project to hit for big power or speed. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/18/71/.270/.342/.437/9

252) Cooper Kinney TBR, 2B/3B, 19.2 – Selected 34th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kinney’s best skill is his plus hit tool, and he showed it off in his pro debut with a .286 BA and 19.1%/21.3% K%/BB% in 11 games. He doesn’t have much power, but at 6’3”, 200 pounds, he should grow into at least average power at peak. He also doesn’t have much speed, so he’s a safe high school bat with limited upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.275/.347/.420/5

253) Brendon Davis LAA, 3B/OF, 24.8 – Davis’ power broke out in a big way this year, slashing .290/.361/.561 with 30 homers, 16 steals, and a 25.1%/8.6% K%/BB% in 124 games split between 3 levels (A+/AA/AAA). He’s 6’4”, 185 pounds with that weird Giancarlo Stanton swing where his front foot is way over to the 1B side. The swing change clearly worked, but there is hit tool risk and he doesn’t really have a defensive home. 2022 Projection: 11/3/14.225/.292/.418/2 Prime Projection: 58/20/69/.243/.315/.462/7

254) Logan O’Hoppe PHI, C, 22.2 – O’Hoppe was a standout performer in the AFL, slashing .299/.440/.519 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 15/21 K/BB in 22 games. This was coming off a rock solid season at mostly High-A where he had a 17.4% K% with 17 homers in 104 games (13 games at Double-A and 6 games at Triple-A). He has plus raw power with no trouble keeping the ball off the ground, and his hit tool took a step forward this year. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 58/21/68/.256/.321/.439/2

255) Simeon Woods Richardson MIN, RHP, 21.6 – SWR struggled as a 20 year old at Double-A with a pitching line of 5.91/1.54/77/34 in 53.1 IP. He lost his control with a 5.7 BB/9 and his fastball is still sitting in the low 90’s. The potential is there for plus control of an above average 4 pitch mix, but at the very least, he didn’t take a step forward this season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.29/168 in 165 IP

256) Jorbit Vivas LAD, 2B/3B, 21.1 – Vivas’ power broke out in 2021 with 14 homers in 106 games, but 13 of those homers came at Single-A with Rancho Cucamonga, a known hitter’s paradise, as his home ballpark. He hit just one homer in 23 games at High-A. Regardless, his power definitely ticked up this year, and he combines that with elite contact rates (11.5% K%). He’s a lefty with extreme splits, so there is platoon risk. LA just added Vivas to their 40 man, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, so they definitely like him a lot. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/68/.278/.342/.423/6

257) Matt Vierling PHI, OF/1B, 25.6 – Vierling put up some eye opening Statcast numbers in his 77 PA MLB debut with a 91.5 MPH EV and 29.2 ft/s sprint speed. He doesn’t have major strikeout issues either with a 24.5% whiff%. He’ll likely top out as a bench piece, but he has some fantasy friendly upside if he can fall into playing time. 2022 Projection: 56/9/51/.268/.326/.415/10

258) Carlos Colmenarez TBR, SS, 18.3 – A hamate injury limited Colmenarez to 26 games, and he didn’t do much in those games with 0 homers, a 26.3%/7.0% K%/BB% and a 79 wRC+ in the DSL, but it’s too early to go off him. He did manage to lift the ball with a 45.7% FB%, so when the raw power inevitably comes, he won’t have any trouble getting to it in games. He still has that same above average across the board potential which made him a very high priced international signing. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/20/76/.270/.330/.440/10

259) Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 23.5 – Pfaadt is 6’4”, 220 pounds with plus control (1.9 BB/9) of a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s, a potentially plus slider, and a developing changeup. 2021 was his first year of pro ball and his first year as a full time starter, and it went swimmingly with a pitching line of 3.21/1.01/160/28 in 131.2 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.25/167 in 165 IP

260) Colton Welker COL, 3B/1B, 24.6 – Welker was a former favorite of mine because I loved his big, uppercut righty swing and strong contact numbers, but a down 2019 had him dropping a bit for me, and then he was was suspended 80 games at the start of 2021 for PED’s. He looked good when he returned though, ripping 3 homers with a 20.4%/12.2% in 23 games at Triple-A before getting called up to the majors for 40 AB. He struggled in those at-bats with a .466 OPS, but the underlying numbers weren’t too bad with an about average 88.1 MPH EV and 24.1% whiff%. Like Montero and Toglia, it’s gonna come down to playing time. 2022 Projection: 18/5/16/.258/.318/.429/0 Prime Projection: 68/18/74/.266/.328/460/2

261) Colin Peluse OAK, RHP, 23.10 – Peluse shows very good control/command of a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a developing change. He pitched well at High-A with a 3.66 ERA and 92/22 K/BB in 86 IP before closing out the season by dominating Double-A in 15 IP with a 1.80 ERA and 17/4 K/BB. He’s still flying a bit too far under the radar. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.05/1.25/171 in 167 IP

262) Yasel Antuna WAS, SS, 22.5 – Antuna is a former high priced international prospect who has mostly struggled throughout his pro career but has shown enough to keep him on the radar. He’s a switch hitter with a simple swing that is geared for both average and power. He started the season by going 6 for 70, but he righted the ship and put up a more respectable .760 OPS the rest of the way at High-A. A 21.9%/10.1% K%/BB% is very solid, and his power took a step forward with 12 homers in 106 games. The prospect shine is fully worn off here and I doubt it’s coming back too much, but he took a step forward this year. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.266/.328/.434/6

263) Nick Loftin KC, SS/2B, 23.6 – Loftin had near elite contact skills in college and that carried over in his pro debut with a 14.6%/10/2% K%/BB% in 90 games at High-A. He has a moderate power/speed combo with 10 homers and 11 steals, and he doesn’t have any major grounball issues with a 40.3% GB%. He played all over the infield in 2021, and he played outfield his freshman year, so he may end up a true super utility player. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/17/69/.272/.331/.418/10

264) Kyren Paris LAA, SS, 20.5 – A broken fibula limited Paris to 47 games in his full season debut. He showed off his plus speed (22 steals) and patience (14.6% BB%), and his power started to sprout just a bit with 4 homers. The biggest issue is strikeouts, as he put up a 31.1% K%, and his numbers tanked when he got to High-A with a 20/2 K/BB in 13 games. He’s still raw, but there is fantasy friendly upside here. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/15/69/.242/.321/.404/17

265) Ethan Small MIL, LHP, 25.1 – Small is a crafty lefty who throws low 90’s heat with two effective secondaries in his changeup and curveball. He hides the ball well and varies his delivery to mess with the hitter’s timing. He strikes me as a 4/5 starter with mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 3/4.41/1.36/56 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.13/1.30/168 in 171 IP

266) J.T. Ginn OAK, RHP, 22.10 – Ginn induces extreme groundball rates (64.1% at High-A) with a low 90’s, heavy sinking two seamer that generates a ton of drop and tail action. He combines that with a plus slider and developing changeup. It resulted in a strong season in the lower minors with a pitching line of 3.03/1.05/81/22 in 92 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He had also just undergone Tommy John surgery in March 2020, so he should only get stronger from here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.06/1.28/159 in 165 IP

267) Frank Mozzicato KC, LHP, 18.10 – Selected 7th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mozzicato is a 6’3”, 175 pound lefty with a low 90’s fastball, plus curve, and developing changeup. Although he was drafted 7th, he signed for only the 16th highest signing bonus, which is just a reminder to not be too tied to draft position in dynasty for first year player drafts. Regardless, he has room to fill out and add velocity, which would take his game to the next level. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/4.08/1.31/163 in 160 IP

268) Robert Puason OAK, SS, 19.6 – Oakland aggressively assigned Puason to full season ball in his professional debut and he did not respond with a strikeout fest of a season. He struck out 41.2% of the time with a 59.5% GB% and put up a 56 wRC+ in 91 games. The talent that made him a high priced international free agent is still there, but saying there is a long way to go is an understatement. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/20/72/.236/.311/.438/12

269) Ian Seymour TBR, LHP, 23.4 – An elbow injury delayed the start of Seymour’s season until July and limited him to only 55.1 IP, but he quickly proved too advanced for minor league hitters in his pro debut with a pitching line of 1.95/0.81/87/19 split across 3 levels (A, A+, AAA). He doesn’t have huge stuff but he has above average control of a low 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and change. He also mixes in a cutter and curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.29/154 in 155 IP

270) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 24.7 – It’s all about that filthy, double plus changeup for Pepiot. It is one of, if not the best changeup in the minors. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball and a much improved slider. His control has been an issue going back to college, and it hasn’t improved much with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A and 10.4% BB% at Triple-A. He destroyed Double-A in general (2.87 ERA in 59.2 IP), but he got destroyed in Triple-A (7.13 ERA in 41.2 IP). His control needs to improve to reach his mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 2/4.55/1.38/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/160 in 155 IP

271) Daulton Jefferies OAK, RHP, 26.2 – Jefferies shows elite control (3.3% BB% in 77 IP at Triple-A) of a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 93.5 MPH sinker and plus changeup. He might not have the highest upside, but he’s knocking on the door of the bigs and his average stuff plays up because of his control. 2022 Projection: 5/4.29/1.28/75 in 85 IP Prime Projection: 11/4.16/1.24/162 in 175 IP

272) Jackson Kowar KC, RHP, 25.6 – Kowar got destroyed in his MLB debut with an 11.27 ERA in 30.1 IP. His 95.6 MPH fastball and his plus changeup both got rocked with a .575 and .595 slugging against, respectively. We’ve seen rookie pitchers get blown up like this in the past and still go on to have excellent careers (Jose Berrios comes to mind), so I wouldn’t necessarily automatically jump ship. His changeup is truly a disgusting pitch, his breaking ball was much improved this year, and he performed better at Triple-A with a 3.46 ERA and 115/34 K/BB in 80.2 IP. He has mid-rotation upside and he should compete for a rotation spot this spring. 2022 Projection: 6/4.38/1.36/104 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.03/1.31/165 in 160 IP

273) Brayan Buelvas OAK, OF, 19.10 – A .253 BABIP kept Buelvas’ hitting line in check with a .219 BA, but the underlying numbers showed an advanced hitter with above average power and speed. He smacked 16 homers with 17 steals and a 24.2%/9.4% K%/BB% in 88 games at Single-A. That low BA creates a buying opportunity. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/20/72/.274/.346/.452/10

274) Jordan Viars PHI, 1B/OF, 18.8 – Selected 84th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Viars is 6’4”, 215 pounds with plus raw power from the left side. He showed an advanced plate approach in his pro debut with a 18.8%/17.2% K%/BB% and 132 wRC+ in 22 games in rookie ball. He is also young for his class. This is a high upside power bat who you should be able to get for cheap in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/23/78/.255/.331/.463/5

275) Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 17.9 – Zavala signed for $1.2 million in last year’s international class and he lived up to the signing in his pro debut, slashing .297/.400/.487 with 3 homers, 11 steals (in 18 attempts) and a 15.3%/13.6% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. He has an easy, smooth lefty swing with an advanced plate approach and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/78/.274/.348/.462/7

276) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 19.10 – Clase was limited to just 14 games in rookie ball due to a variety of minor injuries, but it didn’t take much to show off his upside with 2 homers and 16 steals on 16 attempts. He did show some swing and miss with a 26.3%/10.5% K%/BB%, but this is a high ceiling player with double plus speed and developing power. I wouldn’t forget about him because of the limited playing time. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/16/67/.265/.335/.418/28

277) Heriberto Hernandez TBR, OF, 22.4 – Hernandez is your classic 3 true outcome slugger with a 28.1%/15.3% K%/BB% and 44.2% FB% in 73 games at Single-A. He’s always been old for his level and he isn’t good on defense, so playing time could always be a struggle, especially in Tampa’s stacked organization. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/77/.251/.335/.467/4

278) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 23.5 – Pache struggled hard in the majors to start the season with a negative 8 wRC+ in 22 games, and he didn’t look all that hot when he got sent down to Triple-A either with a 27.5% K% and 100 wRC+ in 89 games. His bat was always expected to bloom late as his plus centerfield defense is his carrying tool, but for fantasy purposed I’m not sure he is worth the wait. You can probably always get back in later. 2022 Projection: 11/2/9/.225/.281/.384/2 Prime Projection: 75/21/79/.273/.338/.451/17

279) Matt Fraizer PIT, OF, 24.3 – Fraizer is a tooled up 6’3”, 217 pounds. He has an under control, powerful lefty swing that decimated High-A with 20 homers, a 158 wRC+, and a 21.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 75 games. He was old for the level, but he also hit well in 37 games at Double-A, slashing .288/.356/.492 with 3 homers and a 22.8%/8.7% K%/BB%. He has some speed too but I wouldn’t put too much credence on his 14 steals at High-A because of the rule changes. Steamer actually loves him, projecting him for a 101 wRC+ in the majors for 2021. 2022 Projection: 15/5/19/.245/.305/.430/3 Prime Projection: 62/19/71/.263/.321/.466/6

280) Buddy Kennedy ARI, 3B, 23.6 – When you watch Kennedy he doesn’t exactly scream upside, but he has baseball bloodlines and it definitely shows because he looks mature beyond his years at the plate. He vaguely reminded me of Jhonny Peralta a little. He slashed .290/.384/.523 with 22 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.1%/12.3% K%/BB% in 96 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s hit well every year of his career going back to 2017. I’m not sure he’s going to hit for huge power on the MLB level, but he’s definitely being underrated. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 65/18/73/.263/.327/.438/8

281) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 23.3 – Burns had a solid pro debut at High-A with a pitching line of 3.57/1.23/91/29 in 75.2 IP. His stuff doesn’t necessarily jump out at you with a low to mid 90’s fastball and 3 potentially quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). He knows how to pitch and he is in a great org for pitching development, so he has a good chance to reach his mid rotation upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.25/1.27/152 in 161 IP

282) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 17.7 – Bergolla isn’t physically imposing at 5’11”. 175 pounds, but he has baseball bloodlines with a good feel to hit, an advanced plate approach and plus speed. If the power shows up even a little bit, he can be an electric all category player. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/15/71/.276/.341/.418/18

283) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 17.5 – Projected for the 3rd highest signing bonus in the international class, Cabrera is an excellent athlete with plus speed, a good feel to hit and developing power. All of these international prospects feel like taking shots in the dark, but he’s the type of all around player with all category production that is worth gambling on. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/20/75/.260/.325/.435/10

284) Bubba Chandler PIT, SS/RHP, 19.7 – Selected 72nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Chandler is a great athlete who was committed to Clemson for football and baseball. He’s also a two way player whose future is likely on the mound. Fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s with a potentially plus breaking ball and a developing change. The natural talent gives him the ingredients to turn into a top of the rotation starter, but he’s not quite there yet. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.25/170 in 160 IP

285) Wes Kath CHW, 3B, 19.8 – Selected 57th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kath is a bat first prospect who is projected for plus power from the left side at 6’3”, 200 pounds. His swing is pretty, and while he isn’t projected for major hit tool concerns, he did strikeout 36.5% over 28 games in his pro debut in rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.253/.326/.450/4

286) Ethan Wilson PHI, OF, 22.5 – Selected 49th overall in 2021 MLB Draft, Wilson is a powerful lefty who had a monster freshman year, slashing .345/.453/.686 with 17 homers and a 45/36 K/BB in 56 games. He wasn’t able to replicate that this season with only 8 homers, partly because he was banged up early in the season, but he still finished strong with a .943 OPS and 21/33 K/BB in 56 games. He didn’t play in the toughest conference and there are still some questions about his hit tool which materialized in his pro debut as he put up a .215 BA in 30 games at Single-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 59/17/65/.248/.321/.444/4

287) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 18.7 – Cho is a projectable 6’3”, 200 pound lefty with a smooth and powerful swing. He looks damn good in BP and homerun derbies. There isn’t much info on him other than the hype videos, and he is unproven in games, so the risk is high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/82/.257/.326/.449/7

288) Anthony Gutierrez TEX, OF, 17.4 – Gutierrez is your classic high upside international prospect at a projectable 6’3”, 190 pounds with the potential for a plus power/speed combo. You can see the type of athlete we are talking about in this video. It’s hard to predict if he will gain weight and slow down, or stay lean and keep his speed, but either way he has a path to be an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/22/81/.263/.328/.438/12

289) Ky Bush LAA, LHP, 22.5 – Selected 45th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Bush is a large man at 6’6”, 240 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider. He also throws a developing curve and change. His control took a step forward in 2021 with a 2.2 BB/9 in 78 IP in the West Coast Conference (4.8 BB/9 in 2019), and he showed his strikeout stuff will translate to pro ball with 20 K’s in 12 IP in his pro debut at High-A. There is legitimate upside here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.29/180 in 168 IP

290) Norge Vera CHW, RHP, 21.10 – Vera signed for $1.5 million in February 2021 and made his pro debut this year in the Dominican Summer League where he completely overmatched hitters with 0 ER and a 34/5 K/BB in 19 IP. He’s 6’4”, 185 pounds with a 4 pitch mix headlined by a fastball can consistently reach the upper 90’s. He also has the baseball bloodlines as his dad was a star player in Cuba. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.28/171 in 160 IP

291) Ben Kudrna KC, RHP, 19.2 – Selected 43rd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kudrna has an easy, athletic delivery with the ability to throw strikes. His fastball is now up into the mid to uppers 90’s with a potentially plus slider and developing change. He still needs to refine his secondaries, but at 6’3”, 200 pounds, there is a lot to like. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/4.13/1.28/160 in 160 IP

292) Matt Mikulski SFG, LHP, 22.10 – Selected 50th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mikulski broke out in a big way his senior year in the Atlantic 10 with a pitching line of 1.45/0.82/124/27 in 68.1 IP. He throws a fastball that can consistently reach the mid 90’s to go along with 3 potentially quality secondaries in his change (best secondary), slider and curve. He has a funky-ish lefty deliver which I’m always a sucker for, but it results in some control problems and reliever risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.31/155 in 155 IP

293) Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 24.7 – Tink Hence was originally in this #10 spot, but Nootbaar’s AFL performance made me rethink that. He’s going bonkers in Arizona, slashing .314/.437/.643 with 5 homers and a 15/14 K/BB in 18 games. He held his own in his MLB debut with a 101 wRC+, an above average 89.1 MPH exit velocity and an advanced plate approach (22.6%/10/5% K%/BB%). He’s never stolen many bases, but he does have speed with a 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. I’m worried he’s only a part time player, which is why I didn’t have him in the top 10 to begin with, but he deserves to crack this list. 2022 Projection: 41/10/38/.258/.327/.420/2 Prime Projection: 74/19/68/.272/.338/.448/4

294) Korey Lee HOU, C, 23.8 – Lee has the inside track to be Houston’s starting catcher of the future after they selected him 32nd overall in the 2019 Draft. He made his pro debut this year and showed a strong plate approach (18.8%/8.6% K%/BB%) with above average power (11 homers) in 88 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). His numbers dropped off as he climbed the ladder and he was only decent in the AFL (.691 OPS). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 66/18/64/.253/.326/.431/4

295) Joe Mack MIA, C, 19.3 – Selected 31st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mack is the top high school catcher in the draft with a history of strong performance against top competition. He has a quick left handed swing that should lead to plus power at peak. He struggled in his pro debut with a .581 OPS, but a .373 OBP shows he wasn’t completely overmatched. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 63/20/72/.258/.340/.442/3

296) Ryan Kreidler DET, SS, 24.5 – Kreidler’s power broke out in 2021 with 22 homers in 129 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He actually got better at Triple-A, bringing his K% down 6.6 percentage points to 24.1% and putting up a 148 wRC+ in 41 games (105 wRC+ in 88 games at Double-A). He’s 6’4”, 208 pounds, but he has a quick, short to the ball swing that should keep his batting average afloat even though he has had some strikeout issues throughout his career. He’ll also nab you a handful of bags. 2022 Projection: 21/4/23/.240/.301/.408/2 Prime Projection: 73/21/77/.251/.318/.432/7

297) Jhailyn Ortiz PHI, OF, 23.5 – Ortiz resurrected himself from the prospect graveyard, slashing .250/.346/.488 with 23 homers and a 113/38 K/BB in 95 games at mostly High-A. The strikeout rate is still too high, but he has elite power that he has no problems getting to in games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/27/78/.222/.303/.470/2

298) Joe Gray Jr. MIL, OF, 21.11 – Gray is a talented player who was drafted in the 2nd round in 2018 on the back of his plus power/speed combo. He broke out in a big way this year, slashing .252/.355/.499 with 20 homers, 23 steals, and a 131/53 K/BB in 110 games split between Single-A and High-A. There are legitimate strikeout issues, and he struggled a bit at High-A with a 90 wRC+. so there is more work to be done. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/76/.241/.319/.445/12

299) Kameron Misner TBR, OF, 24.3 – Misner quietly put together a very fantasy friendly season with 12 homers and 26 steals in 102 games at mostly High-A. He also closed out the season strong at Double-A with a 145 wRC+ in 14 games. He’s a premium athlete at 6’4”, 218 pounds, and while his hit tool needs work (29.8%/12.5% K%/BB% at High), there is a relatively high upside, later career breakout lurking in here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/15/67/.238/.313/.408/13

300) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 23.7 – DeLoach might not have the highest upside but he has a simple and quick left handed swing that is geared for power and average. He proved too mature for High-A with a 148 wRC+ and 22.1%/11.2% K/BB% in 58 games before meeting his match at Double-A with a 98 wRC+ and 26.9%/13% K% in 49 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.263/.330/.444/8

301) Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 23.10 – I was all in on Thompson in 2017-18 because of his elite athleticism, but a disaster 2019 showed he wasn’t developing as hoped. He is still relatively raw at the dish with a 25.7%/6.2% K%/BB%, but his power took a step forward this year at Double-A with 16 homers in 104 games. He had a 112 wRC+ with 25 steals. He might be on more of that late 20’s breakout path, but at least he righted the ship this year. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 66/15/64/.244/.305/.417/13

302) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 22.4 – Cerda has hit for big power his entire career and that continued in his first year in full season ball with 17 homers in 87 games split between Single-A and High-A. He walks a lot (11.3% BB%) and he keeps the ball off the ground (28.1% GB% at High-A). His strikeout rate was high, but it actually improved when he got to High-A, bringing it down to 23% in 21 games (30.8% in 66 games at Single-A). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/27/80/.242/.320/.470/5

303) Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 24.3 – Stowers is 6’3”, 200 pounds and put up an eye opening statistical season with 27 homers and a .897 OPS in 124 games split between 3 levels (A+/AA/AAA), but it came with a 32.3%/13.8% K%/BB%. He’s already on the older side and the strikeout rate shows his risk, but the upside is considerable. 2022 Projection: 11/4/15/.221/.302/.420/2 Prime Projection: 54/18/59/.236/.318/.441/6

304) Lawrence Butler OAK, 1B/OF, 21.9 – Butler is a built up 6’3”, 210 pound lefty with easy plus power (19 homers in 102 games split between Single-A and High-A), and some speed too (29 for 34 on the bases). The strikeout rate is high (33.1% at High-A), but he’s a high upside bat with fantasy friendly upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 58/17/61/.232/.314/.436/8

305) Anthony Garcia NYY, 1B/OF, 21.7 – Garcia is a big man at 6’5”, 205 pounds, and he has massive power that led to 14 homers in just 39 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. The strikeouts are just as massive with a 36.8%/19.1% K%/BB% at Single-A, and he has limited defensive value, so the risk is quite high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 45/18/53/.228/.328/.457/5

306) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 22.11 – Sabato struggled to start his pro career with a .660 OPS in 70 games, but he was a beast in the 2nd half, slashing .227/.371/.610 with 16 homers and a 58/30 K/BB in 41 games at mostly High-A. His strikeout rates were high (32.1%), but so were his walk rates (19.8%). He’s your classic low BA, high OBP slugger. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/25/79/.232/.335/.476/0

Tier 8

307) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 21.8 – Selected 63rd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the best way to describe Manzardo is that he looks very hitter-ish at the dish. He has a lefty swing that is geared for both average and power, using the whole field to hit .362 with 11 homers in 47 games in the Pac12 before destroying rookie ball for 13 games (1.045 OPS). He’s hit over power right now, but he’s young for the class and should naturally grow into more power as he ages. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.272/.334/.456/2

308) Tony Blanco PIT, OF, 16.11 – Blanco is 6’6”, 230 pounds with some of the best raw power in the class. His dad played in the majors and he shows the corresponding mature plate approach that often goes along with having baseball bloodlines. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/30/91/.260/.335/.496/2

309) Tyler Whitaker HOU, OF, 19.8 – Selected 87th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Whitaker is a high risk, high reward prospect with double-plus speed and plus power, but the hit tool is a major risk. He lived up to that billing in his pro debut with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 35.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 29 games. Grab him late in first year player drafts if you want to swing for the fences. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 62/18/71/.234/.307/.443/11

310) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 23.3 – The power didn’t show up this year with 5 homers in 83 games split between Single-A and High-A, but he showed plus speed (22 steals) and a solid plate approach (21.5%/8.8% K%/BB%). He definitely has more power than he showed, and he should keep getting stronger as he matures. A thumb fracture ended his season in late August. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/15/73/.261/.323/.422/13

311) Colin Barber HOU, OF, 21.4 – A shoulder injury which ended up requiring season ending surgery ended Barber’s season after just 15 games at High-A. He did manage to show his power upside in those games, smashing 3 homers with a sweet lefty swing, but it came with a 41.5%/17% K%/BB%. He has potentially plus power with some speed too, and in his short 64 game pro career he has shown high strikeout and walk rates. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/24/79/.248/.330/.456/8

312) Yanquiel Fernandez COL, OF, 19.3 – 18 years old is a bit too old for the DSL, but Fernandez did live up to his scouting report with plus power and a good feel to hit. He slashed .333/.406/.531 with 6 homers, 0 steals, and a 12.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 54 games. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with a vicious lefty swing that has potential written all over it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/84/.275/.334/.470/2

313) Junior Marin KCR, OF, 18.0 – Marin had one of the best statistical seasons in the DSL, slashing .380/.468/.696 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.1%/14.4% K%/BB% in 32 games. It was good for a 205 wRC+. He’s already 6’2”, 220 pounds, so the power isn’t in question, but he’ll have to prove he can maintain that plus plate approach against more advanced competition. There also isn’t likely much projection left. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/25/79/.258/.329/.462/5

314) Romy Gonzalez CHW, SS, 25.7 – Gonzalez had a huge breakout season at Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .283/.364/.532 with 24 homers, 24 steals, and a 112/43 K/BB in 93 games. It earned him a 10 game cup of coffee in September where he mostly struggled with a .616 OPS, but he did put up an above average 28.2 ft/s sprint speed. He swings a quick bat and there is definitely some legitimate all fields power. He’s already pretty old and there are some strikeout issues, so he may top out as a utility guy, but there is some fantasy friendly upside if injuries open up a spot for him. 2022 Projection: 15/3/15/.241/.306/.426/3 Prime Projection: 63/15/61/.248/.312/.439/7

315) Carlos Rincon NYM, OF, 24.6 – The 6’3” Rincon has beastly raw power and he has been able to get to all of it his entire professional career with 94 home runs in 479 career games. It was more of the same in 2021 with 22 homers in 101 games at Double-A. He doesn’t have any problem keeping the ball off the ground and while his strikeout rates have always been high, a 26.8% mark in 2021 isn’t that bad. 2022 Projection: 6/2/11/.218/.291/.415/1 Prime Projection: 66/22/72/.243/.318/.475/3

316) Sam Huff TEX, C/1B, 24.2 – Huff is all about that gluttonous power. He ripped 16 homers in just 61 games at mostly Double-A. A side effect of that gluttony is massive strikeouts (39% K%), and he hasn’t put up particularly high walk rates throughout his career. He missed the first two months of the season after undergoing knee surgery, and he played only first base when he returned, but he should get back to catching next season. 2022 Projection: 12/5/16/.219/.277/.410/0 Prime Projection: 49/24/55/.234/.298/.440/1

317) Aaron Zavala TEX, OF, 21.9 – Selected 38th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Zavala might not have the highest upside, but he’s a rock solid hitter who put up a 31/50 K/BB in 55 games in the Pac12 before entering pro ball and slashing .302/.433/.434 with 1 homer, 7 steals, and a 19.4%/14.9% K%/BB% in 15 games at Single-A. He has a quick lefty swing with a plus plate approach and about average power and speed. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/16/68/.266/.335/.416/8

318) Ryan Bliss ARI, SS, 22.4 – Selected 42nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Bliss performed well in the SEC, slashing .365/.428/.654 with 15 homers, 6 steals, and a 30/23 K/BB in 50 games. He got to his power in his pro debut as well with 6 homers and a 22.9%/7.4% K%/BB% in 37 games at Single-A. He’s only 5’9”, 165 pounds, so there likely isn’t a ton of MLB power, but he’s hit everywhere he’s been and he has some speed too. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/19/74/.263/.324/.437/8

319) Jose Torres CIN, SS, 22.6 – Selected 89th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Torres didn’t exactly destroy the ACC with a .876 OPS and 39/13 K/BB in 52 games, but he raked even more in pro ball, slashing .333/.387/.591 with 5 homers and 7 steals in 28 games at mostly Single-A. He’s 6’0”, 171 pounds, so there is room to add more muscle and the 15.9% K% in pro ball is encouraging. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/20/77.264/.318/.432/7

320) Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 19.4 – Selected 47th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Lile’s best tool is his hit tool, which is generally not my favorite type of player to go after in fantasy. Power and speed could end up about average. His pro debut wasn’t great, slashing .219/.363/.250 with 0 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/18.8% K%/BB% in 19 games at rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/15/64/.278/.341/.417/6

321) Diego Benitez ATL, SS, 17.4 – Benitez signed for $2.5 million and he has the requisite skills to back that up. He has potentially plus power with an already pretty powerful righty swing. He combines that with a solid plate approach and some speed. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.257/.328/.458/6

322) Yasser Mercedes MIN, OF, 17.5 – Mercedes is a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds with plus speed and a silky smooth righty swing that could produce plus power at peak, but he has some hit tool risk. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/20/76/.245/.316/.431/12

323) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 23.3 – Dingler destroyed High-A with a 149 wRC+ in 32 games, but he looked overmatched in Double-A with a 58 wRC+ and 29.8%/4.3% K%/BB% in 50 games. Even at High-A he struck out 25.5% of the time, and considering he is not expected to have big power or speed, the hit tool concerns aren’t great. Tack on all the extra attention he has to give developing his catcher defense, and I’m not seeing much upside here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 61/18/69/.260/.324/.421/4

324) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 21.11 – Canario certainly looks the part with a big righty swing that is geared for power. He jacked 18 homers with high flyball rates in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. He also has some speed with 21 steals, but his plate approach is still raw, striking out 28.8% of the time at Single-A and walking only 5.5% of the time at High-A. He’s a high risk, high reward prospect. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/24/79/.242/.315/.451/8

325) Ryan Vilade COL, OF, 23.1 – Vilade is a solid but unspectacular player who does a lot of things well but nothing really standout. He has a solid plate approach (17.8%/7.3% K%/BB%) with some pop (7 homers in 117 games at Triple-A) and some speed (12 steals in 17 attempts). There is more raw power than that homer total shows, but he hits the ball on the ground too much to get to it (45.1% GB%). 2022 Projection: 15/2/11/.265/.312/.397/2 Prime Projection: 76/18/71/.282/.336/.430/8

326) Micker Adolfo CHW, OF, 25.6 – Adolfo has at least plus power, jacking out 24 homers in 101 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but it comes with major strikeout issues (34.1% K%). 2022 Projection: 8/2/10/.225/.294/.421/0 Prime Projection: 64/21/75/.237/.305/.441/2

327) Gage Workman DET, SS, 22.5 – Workman is a switch hitter who was much better from the left side than the right, putting up a .849 OPS as a lefty and a .483 OPS as a righty at Single-A and High-A. It might be time to pull a Cedric Mullins and drop the righty swing. He has potentially plus power that he hasn’t completely tapped into yet (12 homers in 118 games), and he has to cut down majorly on his strikeouts (30.6% K%). While he racked up 31 steals, he isn’t a burner and you can’t trust steal numbers from the lower minors this year because of the rule changes. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.242/.315/.430/8

328) Luken Baker STL, 1B, 25.1 – Baker is an absolute moose at the plate at 6’4”, 280 pounds, and he was finally able to tap into his at least plus power for the first time in pro ball. He cracked 26 homers in 93 games at mostly Double-A after hitting just 14 in his previous 159 games. He did so by lowering his groundball percentage to 30.7%. He’s a righty who hit much better vs. lefties than righties, so he’s shaping up to be a short side of a platoon bat. 2022 Projection: 7/2/10/.240/.307/.431/0 Prime Projection: 46/15/55/.252/.326/.457/0

329) Sherten Apostel TEX, 1B/3B, 23.1 – Apostel’s strikeout rates have continued to rise as he climbs the minor league ladder, culminating with a 31.1% K% in 42 games at Double-A and a 36.4% K% in 22 games at Triple-A. Texas’ Double-A ballpark is a great hitters park (and their Triple-A park juices up homers too), but he wasn’t able to do any real damage at either stop. His season ended when he underwent knee surgery for a cartilage issue. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 41/13/47/.234/.317/.448/1

330) T.J. White WAS, OF, 18.8 – Selected 143rd overall in the 2021 Draft, White is 6’2”, 210 pounds with plus bat speed and big raw power. He impressed in his pro debut, slashing .283/.356/.547 with 4 homers and a 23.7%/8.5% K%/BB% in 15 games. He’s a switch hitter with a lefty swing that is geared for power and a righty swing that is more line drive oriented. There are hit tool concerns and he doesn’t have much speed, but he’s a great power bat to grab late in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/75/.252/.325/.468/2

331) Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 21.11 – Selected 127th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Clarke has monster potential at 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, but you guessed it, it comes with major hit tool risk. He’s performed well against inferior competition in the Big West Conference and in rookie ball, but even there it comes with K’s (27.3% K% in rookie ball and 23.1% this year in the Big West). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/19/72/.233/.304/.439/9

332) Otto Lopez TOR, 2B, 23.5 – Lopez is a high contact (17.3% K% in 113 games split between Double-A and Triple-A), plus speed (22 steals) player with high groundball rates (54.1% at Triple-A) and not much power (5 homers). He’s setting up to be a utility player in the near future. 2022 Projection: 9/0/6/.265/.312/.384/2 Prime Projection: 73/10/59/.276/.323/.401/14

333) Warming Bernabel COL, 3B, 19.10 – Bernabel destroyed rookie ball with a 14% K%, 6 homers and a 188 wRC+ in 22 games before struggling at High-A with a 63 wRC+ in 21 games, but he wasn’t overmatched as his K% barely budged at 14.9%. He’s an aggressive hitter with a big righty swing that projects for above average to plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/23/78/.264/.317/.453/5

334) Luis Toribio SFG, 1B/3B, 21.6 – Toribio remains a walk machine with a 15.4% BB%, but his GB% jumped to 51.1% and his K% popped a little to 27.7%. He hit only 7 homers in 94 games at Single-A. He hits the ball hard, but he’s going to have to raise him launch angle to make an impact. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/14/62/.256/.338/.428/2

335) Edouard Julien MIN, 2B/3B, 22.11 – Julien put up a very fun batting line in his pro debut, slashing .266/.434/.480 with 18 homers, 34 steals, and a 28%/21.4% K%/BB% in 112 games split between Single-A and High-A. Other than the stolen bases which are a mirage, that batting line basically mirrors what he did in college with power, patience, and strikeouts. He’s not great on defense, but this is a bat first player who has produced in the SEC and now pro ball. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 52/16/54/.229/.317/.426/5

336) Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B, 25.3 – Donovan hit well everywhere he went in 2021 (A+, AA, AAA, AFL) with a mature plate approach, but he has already 24 years old and he doesn’t project for big power or speed. He’ll likely have to break into the majors as a utility guy and then earn more playing time from there. 2022 Projection: 21/4/18/.265/.321/.401/4 Prime Projection: 63/14/51/.278/.334/.421/8

337) Canaan Smith-Njigba PIT, OF, 23.1 – Smith-Njigba is an OBP machine with a .398 OPB and 16.9% BB% in 66 games at Double-A. He then went to the Fall League and put up a .452 OBP and 20.5% BB% in 18 games. His groundball rates are extremely high (65.3% at Double-A), and while he was an excellent 13 for 14 on the bases, he isn’t that fast, so he’s most intriguing in OBP leagues. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/16/69/.252/.347/.423/4

338) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 21.3 – Ramos is 6’1”. 200 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing that projects for plus power at peak. He dominated rookie ball with a 180 wRC+ in 15 games before getting called up to full season ball and barely missing a beat, slashing .313/.377/.559 with 8 homers and a 25.9%/7.3% K%/BB% in 47 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 62/21/69/.252/.323/.445/6

339) Gilberto Jimenez BOS, OF, 21.9 – Jimenez had a solid year at Single-A (105 wRC+) led by his good feel to hit with a 21.1% K% and .306 BA, but he wasn’t able to get to any of his power because of a 56.1% GB%. He hit 3 homers in 94 games. He doesn’t walk much (4.7% BB%) and while he has at least plus speed, he hasn’t been very effective on the bases in his career (13 for 21 in 2021). There is still an exciting blend of tools here, and he hasn’t performed poorly by any means, but he needs to find a way to produce more homers and steals if he wants to be an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/13/62/.275/.319/.412/15

340) Diego Castillo PIT, SS/2B, 24.5 – Castillo has put up elite contact numbers his entire career (12.7% K% this year) and in 2021 his power ticked up considerably with 19 homers in 104 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He had only hit 8 homers in 452 game career prior to this year. He projects as a utility infielder, but the power surge gives him the potential to beat that projection. 2022 Projection: 11/2/8/.255/.303/.402/2 Prime Projection: 33/6/28/.271/.322/.427/3

341) Maikol Escotto PIT, 2B/SS, 19.10 – Escotto got off to a fast start and had a strong 1st half of the season at Single-A with a .823 OPS in 53 games, but he tanked down the stretch and put up a .574 OPS in his final 29 games. He’s an excellent athlete with a potentially above average power/speed combo (7 homers and 22 steals), but his high strikeout rate adds plenty of risk (30.4%/14.2% K%/BB%). ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/20/73/.244/.326/.433/9

342) Brenton Doyle COL, OF, 23.10 – A 31.6%/7.1% K%/BB% as a 23 year old at High-A is not great, but Doyle has an exciting enough power/speed combo at 6’3”, 200 pounds to overlook that somewhat. He smashed 16 homers with 21 steals in 97 games. A 50% GB% will have to improve to get to more of his power, and that K% has to come down majorly. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/17/68/.248/.318/.422/12

343) Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 19.7 – Rodriguez was known as a hit over power prospect, but he flipped the script in his pro debut with 8 homers and a 30.9% K% (.216 BA) in 54 games in rookie ball. It’s great to see him getting to his power ahead of schedule, but he did so at the expense of his hit tool. There is plenty of time for him to marry the two skills. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 67/23/76/.254/.326/.445/4

344) Petey Halpin CLE, OF, 19.10 – Halpin lived up to his scouting report in his pro debut in High-A, showing a good feel to hit (.294 BA with a 20.3% K%), plus speed (11 steals in 20 attempts), and limited power (1 homer in 54 games). The stolen base success rate isn’t great, and while he hit only 1 homer, there is more power in there than he showed with a quick lefty swing. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/15/62/.272/.338/.414/15

345) Jose Siri HOU, OF, 26.9 – Siri showed both his extreme risk and upside in his MLB debut, putting up a 17.2% Barrel%, .378 xwOBA, and 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The surface stats were just as good with a .956 OPS and 3 steals in 21 games. On the flip side he had a 34.7%/2% K%/BB%. His Triple-A numbers were pretty similar with a .921 OPS and a 30.7%/6.5% K%/BB% in 94 games. It will be a wild ride if he wins Houston’s starting CF job, but I don’t think he is the favorite for it. 2022 Projection: 32/9/36/.232/.291/.421/10

346) Yerlin Confidan CIN, OF, 19.4 – Confidan won the MVP award of the ACL, going bonkos with a slash line of .315/.359/.573 with 11 homers, 7 steals, and a 25%/6.3% K%/BB% in 50 games. He’s 6’3”, 170 pounds with a powerful lefty swing, but he needs to refine his plate approach, and raising his 48.8% GB% would help too. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/27/82/.250/.318/.472/4

347) Eddy Beltre SDP, OF, 18.0 – Beltre was a DSL standout, slashing .295/.423/.446 with 3 homers, 24 steals, and a 16.8%/13.9% K%/BB% in 32 games. He has double plus speed with a good feel to hit and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.427/23

348) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 18.9 – Caminero went buck wild in his pro debut in the DSL, slashing .295/.380/.534 with 9 homers, 2 steals and a 16.4%/11.7% K%/BB% in 43 games. He has a lightening quick righty swing which obviously generates good power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/23/82/.268/.334/.467/4

349) Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears is 6’3”, 230 pounds with massive raw power that he has no trouble getting to. He crushed 17 homers with a 51.2% FB% in 71 games at Single-A, but it comes with extreme strikeout issues (39.2%/12.4% K%/BB%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 58/20/66/.223/.313/.453/4

350) Jeremiah Jackson LAA, SS, 22.0 – Jackson is consistent if nothing else with huge homer totals (10 homers in 51 games at mostly Single-A), plus speed (13 steals), and massive hit tool risk (33.2%). He’s a low probability prospect who likely won’t hit enough, but the upside is high if he can ever figure it out. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 51/17/57/.218/.295/.436/8

351) Daniel Montesino SDP, 1B/OF, 18.2 – Montesino got a million bucks in last year’s international class. He is a bat first prospect with some defensive concerns, so there is a lot of pressure on his bat, but so far, so good as he slashed .316/.444/.489 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.8%/17.7% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He has the potential to hit for both power and average at peak. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/24/78/.254/.331/.450/4

352) Isaiah Greene CLE, OF, 20.7 – Greene had a solid pro debut in rookie ball with a 120 wRC+, but he was old for the level, hit only 1 homer, and was 5 for 9 on the bases in 43 games. He’s a great athlete and projectable at 6’1”, 180 pounds, so while he didn’t exactly kick the door down this year, there are plenty of tools to work with in the future. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/14/61/.264/.328/.413/14

353) Joel Diaz NYM, RHP, 18.1 – Diaz was possibly the best pitcher in the DSL with a pitching line of 0.54/0.75/63/9 in 50.1 IP. He pounds the strikezone with a low 90’s fastball that will likely tick up as he ages to go along with excellent feel for a curve and change. He could potentially have 3 plus pitches at weak with plus control. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.21/180 in 170 IP

354) Angel Martinez CLE, 2B/3B/SS, 20.2 – Martinez got off to a hot start in his full season debut with a .946 OPS in May and a .888 OPS in June, but he fell off a cliff in the 2nd half and finished the season with a .701 OPS in 97 games at Single-A. He projects for moderate across the board production with utility infielder risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/15/65/.272/.337/.428/15

355) Carson Tucker CLE, SS, 20.2 – A hand injury limited Tucker to just 6 games in rookie ball. Cleveland nabbed him 23rd overall in 2020 for his good feel to hit with plus speed and the ability to stick at SS. At 6’2”, 180 pounds, power should develop as he matures. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/68/.263/.324/.413/16

356) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 18.6 – Hernandez was one of my favorite targets in last year’s international class, and while he held his own in his pro debut, he didn’t standout. He put up a 92 wRC+ with a 21.2%/12.8% K%/BB% and 0 homers in 40 games in the DSL. The plate approach was solid, and at a projectable 6’3”, 175 pounds, the power is most certainly coming. I still like him as a high risk/high reward upside play. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.256/.327/.439/6

357) Taylor Walls TB, SS, 25.9 – Walls looks slated for a utility role for at least the first few years of his career. He put up average exit velocity numbers with plus speed, but he hasn’t been a very good base stealer in his career. His K% spiked in Triple-A (26.1%) and MLB (27.8%). but he’s a patient hitter with high walk rates (13.1% BB%). 2022 Projection: 38/6/33/.242/.323/.391/8

358) Slade Cecconi ARI, RHP, 22.9 – Elbow soreness ended Cecconi’s regular season in late August after 59 IP, but he made it back to pitch 15 innings in the AFL. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and an average-ish curve and change. He pitched well at High-A, but he didn’t exactly dominate with a pitching line of 4.12/1.24/63/20 in 59 IP. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/4.15/1.32/155 in 158 IP

359) Nick Bitsko TBR, RHP, 19.10 – Bitsko missed all of 2021 after undergoing surgery on his shoulder. He’s 6’4”, 220 pounds with good control over a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s, a plus curve, and a developing change. The upside is high, but the shoulder injury adds risk. He’s yet to pitch in pro ball. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.27/165 in 158 IP

360) Brent Honeywell OAK, RHP, 27.0 – Trade to Oakland seemingly gives Honeywell a better chance to crack the rotation, but he has plenty of competition there too. He finally got his career back on track after 4 elbow surgeries putting up a pitching line of 3.97/1.20/67/24 in 81.2 IP. The stuff looks mostly back to me, but there is obviously rust after 3 full years of not pitching in any games. 2022 Projection: 5/4.41/1.33/80 in 90 IP

361) Alex Santos HOU, RHP, 20.2 – Santos is 6’4”, 195 pounds with a low 90’s fastball, a potentially plus changeup that he goes to often, and a less consistent breaking ball that flashes plus. He put up a pitching line of 3.46/1.46/48/30 in 41.2 IP at Single-A in his pro debut. Improving his control and adding a tick or two on the fastball would take him to the next level. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.36/143 in 150 IP

362) Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 22.9 – Wilcox underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will likely miss all of 2022. He proved the improved control he showed in his shortened 2020 college season was for real as he put up a 52/5 K/BB in 44.1 IP at Single-A. He throws mid 90’s heat with a potentially plus slider and developing change. There is bullpen risk and now injury risk, but the upside is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.95/1.28/158 in 150 IP

363) Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 23.0 – Rutledge is 6’8”, 245 pounds with a short arm action that he uses to fire an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider. He also throws an average curve and change. 2021 was a disaster year for him as he battled a shoulder injury and put up a pitching line of 7.68/1.65/41/20 in 36.1 IP split across 3 levels (Rk, A, A+). He’s struggling in the AFL too with a 6.98 ERA and 17/10 K/BB in 19.1 IP. He has big stuff, but this season highlighted his reliever risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.08/1.32/122 in 115 IP

364) Luis Medina NYY, RHP, 22.11 – Medina has huge stuff that can reach triple digits with a potentially plus curve and developing changeup, but he has major control issues (5.1 BB/9) that makes his most likely home in the back of the bullpen. If something does eventually click, the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 5/3.72/1.29/95 in 81 IP

365) Andry Lara WAS, RHP, 19.3 – Lara checks a lot of boxes for a teenage pitching prospect. He’s a big guy at 6’4”, 180 pounds (he’s probably heavier than that now) with a fastball that reaches the mid 90’s, a potentially plus breaking ball and a developing changeup. He was solid in his pro debut with a 4.54 ERA and 47/13 K/BB in 30.2 IP at rookie ball, before earning a promotion to full season ball and understandably struggling. I would put mid rotation upside on him at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.29/164 in 168 IP

366) Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 22.5 – Burrows was limited to 49 IP because of an oblique injury, and he also pitched relatively short outings all year. He throws mid 90’s heat with a plus curveball that led to a 2.20 ERA and a 34.2% K% at High-A. He needs to improve his control and his changeup, and also prove he can go deep in games if he wants to stick as a starter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.95/1.32/152 in 140 IP

367) Jonathan Bowlan KCR, RHP, 25.4 – Bowlan was in the midst of breaking out before undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He had a 1.59 ERA with a 25/3 K/BB in 17 IP at Double-A. He had great K/BB numbers in his pro debut in 2019 as well with a 150/23 K/BB in 146 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He has plus control of a mid 90’s fastball to go along with 3 quality secondaries in his curve, slider, and change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.25/1.23/168 in 165 IP

368) Bryce Bonnin CIN, RHP, 23.6 – Bonnin throws gas with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a plus slider that led to 2.87 ERA with a 71/17 K/BB in 47 IP at mostly Single-A. He doesn’t have much experience as a starter going deep into games, and the reliever risk is very high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/3.73/1.28/101 in 85 IP

369) Ricky Vanasco TEX, RHP, 23.6 – Vanasco underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2020 and missed all of 2021. When healthy, his fastball sits in the mid 90’s with a potentially plus curve and developing change, but he needs to improve his control and his career high IP is 49.2, so he has a lot to prove. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.07/1.34/165 in 150 IP

370) Freddy Tarnok ATL, RHP, 23.4 – Tarnok is 6’3”, 185 pounds with a big mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, and developing change. He performed the best he ever has in 2021, even going back to college, with a pitching line of 3.44/1.15/109/28 in 73.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.02/1.31/158 in 160 IP

371) Seth Johnson TB, RHP, 23.6 – Johnson’s first season in full ball was a success with a pitching line of 2.88/1.27/115/33 in 93.2 IP at Single-A. He was old for the level, but considering his relative lack of experience as a pitcher (he was a converted infielder), it is definitely a step in the right direction. He has a plus fastball/slider combo and also mixes in a curve and change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/3.98/1.32/147 in 145 IP

372) Ethan Hankins CLE, RHP, 22.10 – Hankins underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will return in the 2nd half of 2022 at best. He’s a good athlete at 6’6”, 200 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, and he reportedly refined his secondaries in 2020 at alt camp. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.13/1.32/165 in 158 IP

373) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 20.8 – Jones lived up to his scouting report to a T in his pro debut with great stuff, but lots of refinement needed. He throws mid 90’s heat with two breaking balls that flash plus and a developing changeup, but his poor control (4.6 BB/9) led to a 4.64 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP in 66 IP at Single-A. The stuff racked up K’s with a 34.1% K%, so the upside is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.27/1.34/165 in 150 IP

374) Estevan Florial NYY, OF, 24.4 – Florial’s been a tooled up but flawed prospect for basically his entire pro career, and that remains true to this day. He has plus raw power and plus speed, but he can’t take advantage of it with a 30.9% K% in 78 games at Triple-A. He also continues to be a poor base stealer going 13 for 21. He was able to improve his GB%, bringing it all the way down to 39.7% which led to 13 homers (also hit 4 homers in 9 games at Double-A). Overall it led to a below average 93 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 17/4/13/.220/.292/.392/4 Prime Projection: 48/13/41/.238/.309/.413/8

375) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 23.1 – Nwogu had a rough start to his pro debut with a .513 OPS in his first 33 games, but he turned it on after that and put up a .841 OPS in his final 61 games at Single-A. It’s still a mediocre debut overall with a 28.2% K% and 45.5% GB%, but he has a fantasy friendly power/speed comb that is worth gambling on. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 61/18/66/.248/.323/.436/7

376) Erick Pena KC, OF, 19.1 – Pena was terrible in his pro debut with a 52 wRC+ and 36.5% K% in 18 games in rookie ball. There is obviously a long way to go before you can call him a bust, and he is still a good bet to develop plus power, but this is the risk you take when you draft super young international prospects. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 48/16/56/.235/.317/.436/2

377) Jeff Criswell OAK, RHP, 23.1 – Criswell throws mid 90’s heat with a potentially plus breaking ball and average changeup. An arm injury limited Criswell to just 15.2 IP (including the AFL). He needs to improve his control and there is injury risk, so there is a chance he ends up in the pen. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.08/1.32/173 in 160 IP

378) Chayce McDermott HOU, RHP, 23.7 – Selected 132nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McDermott comes from an athletic family as his brother, Sean McDermott, is in the NBA with the Memphis Grizzlies. Chayce is 6’3”, 197 pounds with a fastball that can consistently hit the mid 90’s and a potentially plus breaking ball. He also throws an average curve and a developing changeup. He put up a 44.6% K% in his pro debut at Single-A in 18.1 IP, but he needs to work on his control (13.5% BB%). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.33/158 in 155 IP

379) Wilkelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 20.0 – Gonzalez has a fastball he can get into the mid 90’s with a potentially plus change and average slider. He had a pitching line of 2.91/1.10/66/16 in 52.2 IP split between rookie ball and Single-A. If he can consistently hit the mid 90’s on his fastball as he gains strength and improve his breaking balls, the upside is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.29/151 in 155 IP

380) Roismar Quintana WAS, OF, 19.2 – Quintana signed for 820K in 2019 and made his pro debut this year, slashing .308/.550/.692 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, and a 5/6 K/BB in 7 games. It’s obviously a very small sample because he missed a lot of time with a hamstring injury, but he showed a mature approach with plus raw power and average speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/82/.263/.336/.455/7

381) Christian Franklin CHC, OF, 22.4 – Selected 123rd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Franklin has some swing and miss issues with high strikeout rates throughout his college career, but he has a fantasy friendly profile with an exciting power/speed combo and a history of production in the SEC. He’s slashed .274/.420/.544 with 13 homers, 11 steals, and a 78/44 K/BB in 61 games at Arkansas. He hits the ball hard with excellent bat speed and high walk rates, but the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 62/16/62/.243/.319/.422/8

382) Simon Juan NYM, OF, 16.9 – Juan is one of the youngest players in the international class and has some of the highest power/speed upside with a quick and powerful righty swing, but he has some hit tool risk. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/24/81/.248/.318/.450/16

383) Wilfred Veras CHW, 1B/3B, 19.5 – Veras has baseball bloodlines and is actually Fernando Tatis Jr’s cousin. He got a late start to pro ball because of Covid and has a bit old for the DSL, but the performed well with a 147 wRC+. He’s 6’2”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that projects for above average power at least. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 62/18/71/.246/.316/.451/7

384) Yiddi Cappe MIA, SS, 19.6 – Cappe was a bit old for the DSL, but it was still a solid pro debut with a 16.2%/8.8% K%/BB%. He hit only 2 homers and was 9 for 17 on the bases in 55 games, so the homer/steal skills have to develop, and at 6’3”, 175 pounds, there is tons of potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/20/76/.267/.328/.442/9

385) Ambioris Tavarez ATL, SS, 18.4 – Tavarez has yet to play in pro ball, but he’s an exciting prospect who signed for $1.5 million in last year’s international class. He is 6’2”, 175 pounds with a quick and powerful swing that foreshadows at least plus power potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.246/.325/.457/8

386) Samuel Munoz LAD, 3B, 17.6 – Munoz is a 6’3”, 190 lefty who with an advanced plate approach, plus power projection, and is a good athlete. With little information on many of these international prospects, taking shots on guys in good developmental organizations isn’t a bad idea. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.264/.338/.474/5

387) Ryan Reckley SFG, SS, 17.7 – Signed for $2.2 million, Reckley is an advanced hitter with developing power and plus speed. How much power he can get too at 5’10”, 160 pounds will dictate his upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/18/71/.273/.342/.437/21

388) Yendry Rojas SDP, SS, 17.2 – Rojas is already pretty built up relative to other 17 year olds at 6’0”, 185 pounds and he’s shown a good feel to hit with projectable power and speed. He has a powerful and quick lefty swing that is made to do damage. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/22/81/.267/.325/.448/10

389) Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 24.0 – Massey’s power exploded with 21 homers in 99 games at High-A, and he didn’t lose any of plus contact ability with a 15.5%/7.5% K%/BB%. He was old for level and he struggled a bit vs. lefties, but his stock will skyrocket if he can keep this up in the upper levels of the minors. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/20/75/.263/.318/.434/6

390) Estiven Machado TOR, 2B, 19.6 – Machado cracked my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings at #971, and while he got only 1 PA in 2021 due to a hamstring injury, he has the same exciting profile. He’s an excellent athlete with plus bat speed, a good feel to hit and plus speed. He’s not expected to be a big power hitter, but there should only be more coming down the line. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/15/72/.276/.342/.415/22

391) Ji-Hwan Bae PIT, 2B, 22.8 – After hitting 0 homers in his first two years of pro ball, Bae’s power ticked up and he cracked 8 homers in 85 games at mostly Double-A (2 homers in 23 AFL games). He combines that with plus speed and a plus hit tool, stealing 20 bags with a 22.7%/10.4% K%/BB%. Not bad for a 21/22 year old in the upper levels of the minors. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/15/61/.273/.336/.417/17

392) Bryan Lavastida CLE, C, 23.4 – Lavastida has made excellent contact his entire career, but his strikeout numbers rose as he climbed the minor league ladder this year. He put up a 15.2% K% in 48 games at High-A, a 23.5% K% in 29 games at Double-A, and a 47.6% K% in 7 games at Triple-A. He hits the ball hard and his power leveled up this year with 9 homers in 84 games, but he’ll have to start lifting the ball more to unlock more. He’s a good athlete and he stole 16 bags, but 14 of them came at High-A with the different rules, so that is a bit of a mirage. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 42/11/47/.257/.332/.416/5

393) Patrick Bailey SFG, C, 22.10 – Bailey is a switch hitting catcher with a potentially plus glove who is a legitimate threat to Bart for San Francisco’s ultimate catcher of the future. He ripped up Single-A with a .947 OPS, but he struggled at the more age appropriate High-A with a .587 OPS. He was solid, but unspectacular in the AFL with 1 homer and a .792 OPS in 17 games. He has some swing and miss to his game with above average raw power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 54/17/63/.247/.316/.426/1

394) Starlin Aguilar SEA, 3B, 18.2 – Aguilar was a high priced international signing last year and earned the nickname “Baby Devers” for his quick lefty swing that projects to produce both average and power. He had a solid pro debut with an 18.6%/13.2% K%/BB% and a 41.7% GB%. It only resulted in 2 homers and a 109 wRC+ in 53 games, but he’s set up well for when his power naturally increases. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/22/79/.268/.336/.444/4

395) Milkar Perez SEA, 3B, 20.6 – Perez has an advanced plate approach, putting up a 20.2%/20.7% K%/BB% in 45 games in rookie ball and a 12.5%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games at Single-A. He didn’t hit a single homer and doesn’t project for big power, but he’s a relatively safe bat who knows how to hit. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/14/62/.263/.331/.425/2

396) Felix Valerio MIL, 2B, 21.3 – Valerio is a small guy at 5’7”, 165 pounds with a plus hit tool as his best skill. He slashed .290/.401/.468 with 11 homers, 31 steals. 71/69 K/BB in 114 games split between Single-A (.899 OPS) and High-A (.787 OPS). He has only average speed, so I wouldn’t trust those stolen base totals, and he doesn’t project for very much power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/14/62/.276/.338/.414/8

397) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 18.1 – Bleis signed with the Sox for $1.5 million in last years international class. He is a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with plus power potential, and he performed well in his pro debut, slashing .252/.331/.420 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 18.4%/8.8% K%/BB% in 36 games in the DSL. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/23/75/.252/.320/.442/6

398) Jhonny Piron TBR, OF, 18.2 – Piron’s stats didn’t jump out in his pro debut with a .735 OPS, but he showed a solid plate approach (21.5%/14.1% K%/BB%) with speed (17 steals) and the ability to lift the ball (3 homers with a 50% FB%). When his power ticks up, he will be in a great position for a breakout. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/22/78/.252/.325/.447/14

Tier 9

399) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 19.8 – Hence was the 63rd overall pick in the 2020 Draft. He shows good control of a fastball that can reach 96 MPH, to go along with a plus slider and developing changeup. He has an easy delivery with lightening quick arm speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.28/167 in 160 IP

400) Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 21.10 – Rodriguez is a switch hitter with a mature plate approach and the potential for above average power. He put up a 140 wRC+ with 15 homers, a 37.3% GB%, and a 17.7%/11.5% K%/BB% in 98 games at Single-A. He’s a bit old for the level, he has to continue to improve his defense, and Henry Davis is a major block to his future playing time in Pitt. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 59/15/56/.260/.328/.426/2

401) Jose Butto NYM, RHP, 24.0 – Butto is the type of pitcher to work fast and throw the ball over the plate. A nasty changeup is his money maker and he combines that with an average slider and a low 90’s fastball that seems pretty hittable. He put together a strong year split between High-A and Double-A with a pitching line of 3.83/1.10/110/24 in 98.2 IP. He has a 4/5 starter profile with mid rotation upside if the fastball or breaking ball tick up. 2022 Projection: 1/4.52/1.35/27 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.24/1.31/153 in 160 IP

402) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 20.8 – Howard’s pro debut was a disaster with a 30.1%/5.5% K%/BB% and a 64 wRC+ in 80 games at Single-A. Defense was always his best skill, so that should give his bat a long leash, but he obviously has a long way to go to even be passable. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/14/62/.246/.303/.403/7

403) Oscar Gonzalez CLE, OF, 24.3 – Gonzalez is a big boy at 6’4”, 240 pounds and just jacked out 31 homers in 121 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He doesn’t have much of a plate approach with a 22.2%/4.4% K%/BB%, and he stole only 1 bag, so it is all about that huge power. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 41/16/51/.247/.308/.445/1

404) Korry Howell MIL, OF, 23.7 – Howell’s best asset is his double plus speed and it led to 24 steals in 97 games split between High-A and Double-A, although his numbers dropped off when he got to Double-A, going 4 for 7 in 28 games. His power ticked up this year by drastically lowering his GB%, cranking 16 homers, but the exciting power/speed combo is at the mercy of his poor hit tool. He hit .248 with a 28.9% K% at High-A and .235 with a 39.6% K% at Double-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 43/12/36/.232/.307/.412/10

405) Denzer Guzman LAA, SS, 18.2 – Guzman didn’t particularly standout in his pro debut in the DSL with a 92 wRC+, but there were still some positive takeaways. He showed an advanced plate approach with an excellent 14.6%/12.2% K%/BB% and he put the ball in the air with a 49.1% FB%, so when he grows into his 6’2”, 165 pound frame, the power will come. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/21/78/.266/.337/.442/6

406) Jordyn Adams LAA, OF, 22.5 – Adams is an elite athlete at 6’2”, 180 pounds, but the production just isn’t coming. He put up a 66 wRC+ with 5 homers, 18 steals, and a 37.8%/9.1% K%/BB% in 71 games at High-A. I own him in an 18 teamer where I’m going to have a prospect crunch going into the off-season prospect draft, and I’m struggling as to whether I should cut him, or keep him and try to trade some picks this year for picks next year. The upside is high, but the risk is starting to win out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 47/12/40/.234/.298/.403/12

407) Connor Scott MIA, OF, 22.6 – Scott had his best year in pro ball with a 112 wRC+ in 96 games at High-A. The former 13th overall pick in 2018 is a great athlete at 6’3”, 187 pounds with plus speed and developing power. His development has been a slow burn, so he may end up a late bloomer type, but he took a step forward this year. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/16/66/.257/.320/.419/13

408) Kala’i Rosario MIN, OF, 19.9 – Rosario has big time raw power, and while he hit only 5 homers in 51 games in rookie ball, more homers are definitely coming in the future. The problem is that he struck out 31.7% of the time, so the risk is high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 52/18/57/.237/.316/.442/3

409) Maddux Bruns LAD, LHP, 19.10 – Selected 29th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Bruns is a high risk/high reward pitcher with with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider, but he’s had control problems and consistently issues. He gave up 9 earned with a 5/7 K/BB in 5 IP in his pro debut. The Dodgers are one of the best development organizations in baseball, so I’m more willing to take a shot on him than if he was drafted by a lesser org. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 7/3.82/1.31/129 in 120 IP

410) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 19.6 – Selected 46th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Ziegler is a pretty built up 6’0”, 205 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus curve and developing change. His fastball control is solid, he just needs to continue to refine his secondaries and overall command. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.28/155 in 155 IP

411) Jesse Franklin ATL, OF, 23.4 – Franklin showed explosive power in his pro debut with 24 homers in 101 games at High-A, but he needs to improve his plate approach with a 28.3%/8.4% K%/BB%. He stole 19 bags, but he wasn’t a big base stealer in college and he only has average speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 52/18/65/.238/.316/.452/5

412) Jose Tena CLE, SS, 21.0 – Tena had a strong season at High-A with a 115 wRC+, 16 homers, and 10 steals in 107 games, but his 26.2%/6.0% K%/BB% leaves something to be desired. The plate approach looked much better in the AFL with a 10/10 K/BB in 17 games, but he hit 0 homers. He doesn’t have big raw power and he hasn’t been a great base stealer in his career, so while he can be a strong overall player, I would like to see improvement in his plate approach before buying in more. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/17/65/.267/.323/.427/8

413) Jordan Diaz OAK, 3B, 21.8 – Diaz showed great bat to ball skills in his first year of full season ball at High-A with a 15.9% K%, but his walk rate isn’t great (6.8% BB%), his GB% is high (52.7%), and his defense needs improvement. His power ticked up this year with 13 homers in 90 games, but it will have to reach another level to win playing time and make a fantasy impact. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 56/14/63/.273/.328/.431/3

414) Alexander Ramirez LAA, OF, 19.7 – The risk is high with Ramirez because of extreme strikeout issues, putting up a 32.5% K% at rookie ball and a 42% K% at Single-A, but the upside is high too with plus power and some speed. He had a 136 wRC+ in 35 games at the age appropriate rookie ball and then cratered in full season ball with a negative 10 wRC+. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 62/18/67/.226/.305/.436/5

415) Ismael Mena CHC, OF, 19.4 – Mena had a rough pro debut in stateside rookie ball with a .581 OPS in 44 games, but a 25.3%/8.4% K%/BB% shows he wasn’t completely overmatched. He signed for $2.2 million in 2019, and at a lean 6’3”, 185 pounds, there is still an exciting power/speed combo in here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/18/71/.247/.321/.422/11

416) Robert Gasser SDP, LHP, 22.10 – Selected 71st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Gasser is a “crafty lefty” with a low 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and average changeup. He had a 1.20 ERA with a 14/2 K/BB in 15 IP at mostly Single-A in his pro debut. He profiles as a back end starter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.28/1.28/150 in 160 IP

417) Doug Nikhazy CLE, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 58th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Nikhazy put up some eye popping numbers in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.45/1.01/142/31 in 92 IP. He throws two potentially plus breaking balls in his curve and slider, to go along with a low 90’s fastball and developing change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.23/1.31/166 in 160 IP

418) Glenn Otto TEX, RHP, 26.1 – Otto made his MLB debut and got lit up with a 9.26 ERA in 23.1 IP, but his K/BB numbers looked better with a 25.2%/7.2% K%/BB%. His fastball sat 92.6 MPH and his slider was about average with a .308 xwOBA and 33% K%. He’s going to have to compete for a rotation spot and could easily end up in the bullpen. 2022 Projection: 4/4.16/1.32/85 in 85 IP

419) Sammy Long SFG, LHP, 26.9 – Long will likely compete for the 5th starter job but should get plenty of innings regardless. He throws a 92.6 MPH fastball with two secondaries that put up above average numbers in his MLB debut in his curve (.255 xwOBA) and change (.286 xwOBA). He had a 5.53 ERA in 40.2 IP, but his xERA was much better at 4.24. 2022 Projection: 5/4.28/1.31/86 in 90 IP

420) Reiver Sanmartin CIN, LHP, 26.0 – Sanmartin is currently penciled in as the 5th starter, but with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo knocking on the door, that might not last. Cincy might also trade the current vets in their rotation, so that would help the logjam. He’s your classic crafty lefty with plus control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground and induce weak contact. The fastball sat 89.5 MPH in his 11.2 IP MLB debut, so the margin for error is very small. 2022 Projection: 6/4.44/1.32/106in 120 IP

421) Tucker Davidson ATL, LHP, 25.0 – Davidson will compete for a rotation spot in Spring. A left forearm strain ended Davidson’s regular season in mid June before returning for the playoffs in October. He had a 3.60 ERA with a 18/8 K/BB in 20 IP on the back of a 93 MPH fastball and above slider which put up a 35.7% whiff%. 2022 Projection: 5/4.46/1.37/86 in 90 IP

422) Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 22.10 – Elder might not have the biggest stuff with a low 90’s fastball, but he knows how to pitch, utilizing a 5 pitch mix. He put up a pitching line of 2.75/1.10/155/57 in 137.2 IP split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He has some control problems with a 13.6% BB% at Triple-A, and the fact he doesn’t have that big fastball puts him in the back end starter with mid rotation upside category. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.28/1.34/156 in 160 IP

423) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 23.8 – Shuster handled his business at High-A with a 3.70 ERA and 73/15 K/BB in 58.1 IP before getting shelled at Double-A with a 7.36 ERA in 14.2 IP. His devastating changeup is his best pitch and he goes to it often. He combines that with a fastball that can reach the mid 90’s and an average slider. He’ll need his breaking ball to tick up to reach his mid rotation upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.31/160 in 163 IP

424) Adrian Del Castillo ARI, C, 22.6 – Selected 67th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Castillo has one of the most advanced bats in the class with a strong history of performance in the ACC from the second he stepped on campus, slashing .311/.410/.499 with 17 homers and a 60/70 K/BB in 131 NCAA games. Home run power hasn’t developed as hoped with only 3 homers in 54 games this season, so while he hits the ball hard, the fantasy upside seems lacking. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/14/62/.261/.327/.411/2

425) Bo Naylor CLE, C, 22.1 – Naylor was terrible in 87 games at Double-A with a 69 wRC+, .189 BA and 31.5%/10.4% K%/BB%, but he was young for the level and he deserves a mulligan, especially because of how much catchers need to focus on defense. He brought his GB% all the way down to 27%, so he should be able to get to all of his power at maturity, and he’s displayed a much better hit tool in the past, so I’m expecting him to bounce back next year. He was also a perfect 10 for 10 on the bases, which is always a nice bonus for a catcher. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/21/72/.247/.328/.435/7

426) Javier Osorio DET, SS, 17.0 – Osorio has a quick righty bat with a good feel to hit and plenty of power projection on his 6’0”, 165 pound frame. He has speed too, and while he doesn’t look quite as physically impressive as some of the others in his class, he can be formidable all category contributor. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/76/.272/.339/.452/9

427) Johan Barrios MIL, SS, 17.3 – Barrios is 6’3”, 180 pounds with a good feel to hit and the potential for a plus power/speed combo. The upside is high, and there is barely any hype even relative to other international guys. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/22/78/.258/.326/.448/12

428) Dyan Jorge COL, SS, 18.4, 6’2”, 170 – Projected for the 4th highest signed bonus in his class, Jorge is razor thin with plus speed and top notch athleticism. He is still raw, so the risk is high, but the upside is high too if it all comes together. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/15/69/.252/.321/.413/18

429) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 23.7 – Selected 316th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kavadas has some of the best pure power in the draft, crushing 22 homers in 47 games in the ACC. He fell to the 11th round because of signing bonus demands and the fact he was a 4 year college player, but none of that changes the very real juice in his lefty bat at 6’1”, 235 pounds. He has strikeout issues and no defensive value, so like many of these 1B prospects, his bat needs to hit close to his ceiling. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 42/17/49/.237/.323/.458/0

430) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 20.5 – Kelley suffered a forearm injury in May which kept him out for about 6 weeks, and then a shoulder impingement ended his season in August. He showed absolutely zero control over his stuff when he was on the mound with a 19.6% BB%, which led to a 7.61 ERA over 23.2 IP at mostly Single-A. While it was a disaster year, his stuff is worth staying patient for another year, showing a mid 90’s fastball and the potential for two effective secondaries in his changeup and slider. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 8/4.19/1.34/151 in 150 IP

431) Clarke Schmidt NYY, RHP, 26.1 – Schmidt missed about the first 4 months of the season with an elbow strain which limited him to 44.1 IP. He was successful when he returned with a 2.10 ERA and 32/8 K/BB in 25.2 IP at Triple-A. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by 93 MPH heat and a potentially plus curve. He’ll need injuries to hit to get his shot in the rotation. 2022 Projection: 4/4.41/1.33/71 in 75 IP

432) Bryce Ball CHC, 1B, 23.9 – Ball’s game power dropped off in 2021 with only 13 homers and a 47% GB% in 107 games at High-A. The raw power is definitely still in there, and he walked a ton with an 18.2% BB%. He strikes out too much (27.6% K%) and he was old for the level, so overall it was a step back. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 33/11/35/.229/.321/.441/0

433) Hudson Head PIT, OF, 21.0 – Head’s full season debut at Single-A was a mixed bag, showing solid power (15 homers in 101 games) and patience (15.7% BB%), but he barely ran at all (3 for 4 on the bases) and struck out 31.6% of the time. He’s a tooled up player, but the high K rate is a bit concerning. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/19/71/.247/.318/.435/8

434) Jay Groome BOS, LHP, 23.7 – The elite fastball/curve combo from his pre draft days is gone, but he still has a solid 4 pitch mix with a low 90’s fastball and 3 effective secondaries in his curve, slider, and change. It led to a 4.81 ERA with a 134/36 K/BB in 97.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.35/150 in 150 IP

435) Luis Frias ARI, RHP, 23.10 – Frias has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that can regularly hit the upper 90’s,a plus curveball, and a developing change. He racks up strikeouts with 126 K’s in 111.1 IP. He ran into some trouble in the upper levels of the minors with a 5.26 ERA at Double-A and 5.82 ERA at Triple-A, and he needs to improve his control, so the reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/4.23/1.32/128 in 120 IP

436) Jhoan Duran MIN, RHP, 24.3 – An elbow strain ended Duran’s season after just 16 IP. When healthy, he throws a fastball that can reach triple digits with a plus low 90’s sinker/splitter hybrid. Bullpen risk is high ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 9/4.18/1.34/156 in 152 IP

437) Hayden Wesneski NYY, RHP, 24.4 – Wesneski put up a pitching line of 3.25/1.12/151/36 split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He throws mid 90’s heat with a plus, sharp breaking ball as his best secondary. He also mixes in an average slider and change. I could easily see him ending up in a jack of all trades role. 2022 Projection: 2/4.38/1.36/31 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.17/1.28/122 in 120

438) Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 24.4 – Varland destroyed the lower levels of the minors with a pitching line of 2.10/1.09/142/30 in 103 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He’s old for the levels, but the stuff is good with a fastball that can hit the mid 90’s, a plus slider, and average curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.31/1.33/151 in 155 IP

439) Yohendrick Pinango CHC, OF, 19.11 – Pinango is in the mold of an Adam Frazier/Luis Arraez/David Fletcher with elite contact skills (11.4% K% in 24 games at High-A), but a 55.3% GB% heavily limits his power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/12/59/.278/.345/.402/9

440) Jaden Hill COL, RHP, 22.3 – Hill isn’t necessarily the 11th best prospect in the system, but I thought he is worth mentioning because he would be ranked higher if he didn’t get selected by Colorado 44th overall. He tore his UCL in his 7th start of the season and will likely be out for most of 2022. He has nasty stuff when healthy with a mid 90’s fastball and a slider and changeup that have flashed plus, but he struggled to put it together xin his first full year as a starter with a pitching line of 6.67/1.38/25/12 in 29.1 IP. Despite the obvious talent, there was already performance risk, and now you can tack on injury risk and Coors risk. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 8/4.36/1.34/152 in 150 IP

441) Braden Shewmake ATL, SS, 24.4 – Shewmake struggled at Double-A with a .672 OPS in 83 games, but his plus defense at SS will give his bat every chance to catch up. He’s 6’4”, 190 pounds, so his power should tick up over time, and he had a 21.8% K%, so he can get the bat on the ball. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/17/68/.257/.316/.410/6

442) Kyle Bradish BAL, RHP, 25.7 – Bradish is 6’4”, 220 pounds with a traditional 4 pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He put up a pitching line of 3.68/1.36/131/44 in 100.1 IP at mostly Triple-A. He’s had some control problems going back to his college days, and even with Baltimore moving their fence back/up, a mid to back end starter in that pitching environment is not my favorite fantasy bet to make. 2022 Projection: 3/4.78/1.42/69 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.29/1.34/157 in 160 IP

443) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 20.6 – Vogel isn’t a big guy at 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he’s an explosive athlete with good raw power and plus speed. His pro debut at Single-A showed he is still raw though with an 80 wRC+, 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 29.8% K% in 76 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/16/63/.252/.321/.416/17

444) Willy Vasquez TBR, SS, 20.7 – Vasquez doesn’t have huge upside, but he showed a plus hit tool and approach in rookie ball with a 15.6%/11.6% K%/BB%, although he was a bit old for the level. He definitely looks like a ballplayer in the box with a strong righty swing that should lead to above average power at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 69/18/66/.269/.331/.436/7

445) Joey Estes ATL, RHP, 20.4 – Estes dominated Single-A in his first taste of full season ball with a pitching line of 2.91/0.96/127/29 in 99 IP. He throws a low 90’s fastball that he can get up into the mid 90’s with a potentially plus slider and a developing curve and change. His delivery looks a bit reliever-ish to me. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 8/4.22/1.33/152 in 150 IP

446) Levi Stoudt SEA, RHP, 24.4 – Stoudt missed all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and made his pro debut in 2021. He put up a pitching line of 3.31/1.20/86/37 in 81.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He has a mid 90’s fastball with a nasty plus changeup and an average-ish curve and slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.26/1.34/146 in 155 IP

447) Jean Pinto BAL, RHP, 21.3 – Pinto destroyed rookie ball in 20 innings before being promoted to Single-A where he didn’t miss a beat with a pitching line of 2.51/0.90/56/13 in 46.2 IP. He pounds the strikezone with a 4 pitch mix highlighted by a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s and 3 secondaries (curve, slider, change). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.08/1.30/165 in 158 IP

448) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 23.6 – A 5th round pick in 2020, Stone raised his stock in his pro debut this year with a pitching line of 3.76/1.23/138/25 in 91 IP split between Single-A and High-A. His fastball ticked up into the mid 90’s and he has good control 6% BB% at High-A. None of his secondaries necessarily standout but he has a curve, slider, and change that are all effective. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.27/155 in 155 IP

449) Cody Morissette MIA, 2B/3B, 22.2 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Morissette’s college numbers don’t jump out at you (6 homers with a .895 OPS in 41 games), but he has a smooth lefty that should lead to more homers in the future. He’s a versatile defender who projects to be a solid all around player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/16/66/.263/.326/.423/8

450) Freili Encarnacion BOS, SS, 17.2 – Encarnacion has some of the best power in the class with plus potential. He can hit for a high average too and is a good athlete, so he’s not just a lumbering slugger. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.266/.332/.477/6

451) Carlos Pacheco OAK, OF, 17.5 – Pacheco is 5’11”, 175 pounds with a plus hit, plus speed profile. How much power he’s able to get to will dictate his upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/15/68/.271/.333/.415/18

452) Jaison Chourio CLE, OF, 16.10 – Jaison’s older brother, Jackson, was a DSL breakout in 2021, so why not role the dice with the next Chourio. He has a similar skillset with a good fell to hit, plus speed, and developing power. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 79/15/67/.268/.336/.416/18

453) George Feliz SEA, OF, 19.6 – Feliz hit well in the DSL with a 127 wRC+, but he was a bit old for the level. Plus speed his is hit best tool with 8 steals and he showed nice power with 5 homers in 46 games. 23.5% K% against DSL competition and being old for the level gives him some hit tool risk. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/15/64/.252/.316/.428/16

454) Noah Miller MIN, SS, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Miller is a switch hitter with a potentially plus hit tool and advanced approach, although he put up a 27.1% K% in his 22 game pro debut. He combines that with potentially average power and speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/16/63/.267/.328/.424/7

455) Simon Muzziotti PHI, OF, 23.3 – Muzziotti missed most of the season with visa issues, but he made it back in late August and literally played at every stateside level, including the AFL. He has a plus hit tool and plate approach (12.5%/15.6% K%/BB% in 8 games at Triple-A), but he hits the ball on the ground too much to get to his average raw power. He also has plus speed but hasn’t been a good base stealer in his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/13/56/.271/.336/.416/7

456) Euribiel Angeles SDP, SS, 19.11 – Angeles thrived in full season ball at barely 19 years old with a plus hit tool. He hit .343 with a 15.1% K% in 87 games at Single-A before being promoted to High-A for 18 games (18.6% K%). He doesn’t have much power or speed, but he’s a relatively safe prospect because he knows how to hit. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/14/59/.275/.333/.409/7

457) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 23.6 – Beeter put up impressive strikeout numbers with a 78/22 K/BB in 52.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A, but he did it in very short outings, ramping up to high of 3.1 IP towards the end of the season. His stuff is good with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider and curve, and a lesser used changeup. He needs to improve his control and the reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.95/1.32/131 in 120 IP

458) Miguel Amaya CHC, C, 23.1 – A forearm strain limited Amaya to only 23 games at Double-A and he underwent Tommy John surgery in the off-season, meaning he could miss all of 2022. His defense is ahead of his offense, but he still put up a strong 117 wRC+ at Double-A on the back of a 20.8%/19.8% K%/BB%, but he didn’t do very much damage with a .710 OPS. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 66/16/61/.268/.341/.425/2

459) Wes Clarke MIL, 1B/C, 22.5 – Selected 297th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Clarke jacked 23 homers with a 73/50 K/BB in 57 SEC games, and then entered pro ball and cranked 4 homers with a 21/21 K/BB in 21 games at Single-A. He has little defensive value and major hit tool concerns, but the power and patience profile is enticing for fantasy. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 41/16/46/.224/.316/.447/0

460) Sean Burke CHW, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 94th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Burke is 6’6”, 230 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball, but he needs to improve his control (5.1 BB/9 in 74.1 SEC innings), and the consistency of his secondaries (slider, curve, change). He’s high risk, high reward. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/3.92/1.36/121 in 110 IP

461) Carmen Mlodzinski PIT, RHP, 23.1 – A right shoulder injury limited Mlodzinski to 52.1 IP. He worked to unlock more strikeouts this year going with a swing and miss mid 90’s 4 seamer over his sinker. It led to 66 strikeouts in 52.1 IP at mostly High-A. He combines that with an array of secondaries, highlighted by a potentially plus slider and change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.34/1.35/161 in 165 IP

462) Alexander Suarez SFG, OF, 20.3 – Suarez put up a fantasy friendly statline at rookie ball, slashing .311/.379/.503 with 6 homers and 16 steals in 55 games, but he had a terrible plate approach (33.6%/4.7%) and he was old for the level. He definitely looks the part at 6’2” with a quick righty swing, but his hit tool has a long way to go. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 41/14/44/.227/.292/.426/6

463) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 22.11 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021 and will miss all of 2022. Mata’s control took a major step forward in 2019, cutting his walk rate from 7.3 BB/9 in 2018 to 3.6 BB/9 in 2019. He continued to work on that in 2020 at the alt site. He has big time stuff headlined by a plus fastball/slider combo, but still needs to work on command and consistently. Now you can tack on injury risk to an already risky profile. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.22/1.35/154 in 152 IP

464) Alec Marsh KCR, RHP, 23.11 – Marsh was limited to 25.1 IP at Double-A with arm soreness, but was able to return for one appearance in the AFL. He was in the midst of breaking out with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s and 3 potentially quality secondaries in his slider, curve and change. He had a 39.6% K% before going down with the injury. He has mid-rotation upside. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.35/165 in 155 IP

465) Landon Marceaux LAA, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 80th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Marceaux doesn’t have huge stuff with a low 90’s fastball, but he dominated the SEC because he understands the art of pitching. He has good control over a 4 pitch mix and tunnels his pitches well. Plus curve is his best pitch. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.29/1.27/152 in 160 IP

466) A.J. Alexy TEX, RHP, 23.11 – Alexy made his MLB debut and while his 4.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP isn’t bad, the underlying numbers aren’t as kind. He had a 17/17 K/BB in 23 IP and his xERA was 6.82. He’s had control problems throughout his career, and while his stuff is good with a 4 pitch mix and 93.3 MPH fastball, it isn’t standout. He’s likely a back end starter. 2022 Projection: 6/4.88/1.42/107 in 120 IP

467) Leo Jimenez TOR, SS, 20.10 – Jimenez thrived a Single-A with a plus plate approach (14.5%/21.1% K%/BB%), but he has very little game power with only 1 homer in 59 games. He’s not a burner, so he needs to figure out a way to get to his potentially average raw power if he wants to make an impact with the bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 64/12/51/.267/.340/.401/6

468) Ken Waldichuk NYY, LHP, 24.3 – Waldichuk is a crafty lefty with an average to above average 4 pitch mix. He pitched well at Double-A with a pitching line of 4.20/1.29/108/38 in 79.1 IP. He projects as a multi inning reliever or back end starter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/4.16/1.32/117 in 120 IP

469) Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 22.10 – Selected 53rd in the 2021 MLB Draft, Abbott transitioned into the rotation in 2021 and he took to it quite well, putting up a pitching line of 2.87/1.13/162/32 in 106.2 IP in the ACC. The strikeout prowess transferred to pro ball with a 22/4 K/BB in 13 IP at mostly Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball with a plus curve and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/4.12/1.30/127 in 120 IP

470) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 19.7 – Selected 91st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Tiedemann is 6’4”, 220 pounds with a fastball he can get up into the mid 90’s and two potentially quality secondaries in his changeup and slider. He’s still on the raw side, but a big lefty with 3 potentially good pitches is a great foundation. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.35/1.34/153 in 160 IP

471) Nick Allen OAK, SS, 22.6 – Plus defense is Allen’s best skill, and he performed solidly as a 21 year old in the upper minors, slashing .288/.346/.403 with 6 homers, 12 steals, and a 76/29 K/BB in 89 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. That Adam Frazier/Luis Arraez/David Fletcher range seems to be the ceiling, and he might not even be able to reach that level. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/9/53/.272/.330/.379/9

472) Will Wilson SFG, SS, 23.8 – Wilson performed well at High-A (120 wRC+) before struggling hard at Double-A (65 wRC+) and the AFL (.542 OPS). He showed good power with 17 homers in 119 games across all levels, but there were major strikeout issues with a 36.7% in 51 games at Double-A. He’s a low upside player with some pop. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/18/69/.246/.318/.423/4

473) Alexander Vargas NYY, SS, 20.5 – Vargas was a bit old for rookie ball and he didn’t exactly destroy the level with a 105 wRC+, but his plus glove should get him on the field, and he combines that with plus speed. Hit tool and power will dictate his ceiling. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/14/61/.262/.323/.411/16

474) Peyton Wilson KCR, 2B, 22.5 – Selected 66th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Wilson is a switch hitter with plus speed and some pop, and while his plate approach is solid (41/22 K/BB in 58 SEC games), it might not be quite good enough to be a full time MLB player considering limited power potential at 5’9”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 52/10/47/.253/.313/.412/10

475) Corey Rosier SDP, OF, 22.7 – Selected 354th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Rosier proved his numbers from the Southern Conference will transfer to pro ball, slashing .380/.451/.570 with 3 homers, 13 steals, and a 14.2%/12.8% K%/BB% in 32 games at mostly Single-A. He’s a good defensive CF with the potential for modest across the board production. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/15/63/.268/.323/.417/9

476) Tyler McDonough BOS, 2B/OF, 23.0 – Selected 75h overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, McDonough is a do a little bit of everything switch hitter who can play all over the field. He’s had a good feel to hit and some speed from his freshman year, and he added more power this year with 15 homers in 55 ACC games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 64/13/57/.264/.321/.417/7

477) Reed Trimble BAL, OF, 21.10 – Selected 65th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Trimble is a high risk, high reward player with plus speed and plus raw power, but he’s still a bit raw at the dish. He struggled in Single-A in his pro debut with a 41 wRC+, but he’s one of the younger players in the college class and the upside is worth taking a shot on at this point. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 51/14/59/.242/.310/.426/10

478) Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 59th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Schwellenbach is a two way player whose future is likely on the mound. He didn’t pitch at all until his Junior year because of an elbow injury that required surgery, and he was only used out of the pen. The stuff is excellent though with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus secondaries in his slider and change. He was lights out coming out of the pen with a 0.57 ERA and 34/8 K/BB in 31.2 IP, but he has to prove he can handle a starter’s workload and stay healthy, so the risk is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/4.05/1.32/105 in 100 IP

479) Konnor Pilkington CLE, LHP, 24.7 – Pilkington is a big lefty at 6’3”, 240 pounds who throws a fastball that can reach the mid 90’s to go along with 3 secondaries in his curve, change and slider. He handled his business at Double-A with a 3.04 ERA and 120/39 K/BB in 100.2 IP. He profiles as an innings eater back end starter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.34/1.35/155 in 165 IP

480) Maximo Acosta TEX, SS, 19.5 – Acosta couldn’t live up to his considerable hype with a 70 wRC+ in 17 games in rookie ball. He had a 22.1%/4.4% K%/BB%, so he doesn’t have major contact issues, but he’s still raw at the dish, which isn’t great because his relatively advanced bat was supposed to be his best skill. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 62/18/66/.253/.312/.421/9

481) Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – Selected 48th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Arroyo is a plus defensive player who doesn’t have the highest offensive upside. He struggled a bit in his pro debut in stateside rookie ball with a 30.2% K% and 84 wRC+, but considering he was only 17 years old that isn’t too bad. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/17/73/.254/.316/.432/7

482) Nick Swiney SFG, LHP, 23.2 – A concussion limited Swiney to 32.1 IP in his pro debut, putting up a 0.84 ERA with a 58/18 K/BB at mostly Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball with two quality secondaries in his curve and change. His big K rates from college transferred to pro ball, but he needs to improve his control. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.27/1.34/163 in 156 IP

483) Drew Parrish KCR, LHP, 24.4 – Parrish dominated in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.83/0.99/118/28 in 98.2 IP at mostly Double-A. He pounds the strikezone with a decent 3 pitch mix led by a low 90’s fastball and an effective change and curve. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.36/1.33/ 151 in 163 IP

484) Ronaldo Hernandez BOS, C, 24.5 – Hernandez has plus power, drilling 16 homers in 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but he also notched a career worst 19.9% K% (still pretty good) and 3.1% BB% (terrible). He’s also not a very good defensive player. Power is the skill you are buying here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 38/13/47/.241/.290/.432/0

485) Hoy Park PIT, 2B/SS, 26.0 – Park is old for a prospect and he didn’t perform very well in his MLB debut with .663 OPS and 85.8 MPH EV, but he did enough in the upper minors (.932 OPS in 66 games at mostly Triple-A) that he should compete for at-bats at 2B for Pitt at least until Nick Gonzales is ready. 2022 Projection: 36/7/33/.244/.322/.394/7

486) Trevor Hauver TEX, 2B, 23.4 – Hauver was a walk machine in his pro debut with a 19% BB% and .416 OBP in 99 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his K% spiked to 32.9% at High-A and he was old for the level. He keeps the ball off the ground and he has potentially above average power, so he can be a solid bat in an OBP league if he wins playing time. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 66/18/69/.243/.327/.435/2

487) Austin Shenton TBR, 3B, 24.2 – Shenton is a poor defensive 3B and might be a 1B only guy on the MLB level. That will make it much harder to hack his way through Tampa’s perpetual logjam considering he is expected to be a good, but not a true difference making hitter. He had an excellent season split between High-A and Double-A with a .947 OPS. He has the potential for an average plate approach and above average power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 43/15/49/.252/.323/.447/1

488) Rodolfo Castro PIT, 3B/2B, 22.10 – Castro was Mr. Irrelevant on my 2021 Top 1,000 ranking coming in at 1,008, the last player in the ranking. He made his MLB debut and struggled with a .653 OPS in 31 games, but he showed his potentially plus power with 5 homers and a 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV. He’ll need to refine his plate approach (29%/6.5% K%/BB%) if he wants to hit his ceiling. Prime Projection: 45/15/58/.242/.302/.430/5

489) Fidel Montero NYY, OF, 18.3 – Montero is a fun prospect with a plus power/speed combo, knocking 4 homers with 19 steals in 52 games in the DSL, but it comes with major strikeout issues (40%/19.6% K%/BB%). ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 56/16/59/.225/.315/.426/11

490) Bayron Lora TEX, OF, 19.6 – Lora made his pro debut being a bit old for the DSL, but his skills were as advertised with 6 homers and a 37.2%/24.5% K%/BB% in 47 games. He’s shaping up to be a 3 true outcome slugger if he hits his ceiling. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 51/18/57/.224/.314/.462/4

491) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 17.0 – Mejia is a switch hitter who is known for his good feel to hit, and while he doesn’t project for huge power and speed numbers, he certainly has impact potential in those categories depending on his development. St. Louis has had a lot of success developing guys who know how to hit first and foremost. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/19/73/.277/.331/.432/8

492) Yordani De Los Santos PIT, SS, 17.1 – Santos is a projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with the potential to hit for both average and power. He has a big righty swing with tons of potential to do damage. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/25/82/.261/.328/.462/7

493) Peter Heubeck LAD, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 101st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Heubeck is a skinny and projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with a low 90’s fastball, potentially plus curve, and developing change. The fastball should tick up as he matures and he throws the ball over the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.31/1.28/156 in 160 IP

494) Hunter Goodman COL, C, 22.6 – Selected 109th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Goodman has big power, smacking 21 homers in 56 games in the American Conference, but it comes with strikeout concerns and he also might not stick behind the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/52/.224/.303/.435/3

495) Alexis Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – Hernandez is the younger brother of last year’s top overall international prospect Cristian Hernandez. Alexis is a good prospect in his own right at a projectable 6’2”, 170 pounds with speed and developing power. I also think having his older brother going through the process one year ahead of him is a small advantage. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/18/71/.260/.325/.424/11

496) Ruben Cardenas TBR, OF, 24.6 – Cardenas’ power exploded in 2021 with 25 homers in 105 games split between High-A and Double-A, but his K% (27.2%) and BB% (3.9%) were both career worsts. He’s likely a 4th outfielder, especially in Tampa. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 42/14/49/.252/.309/.442/2

497) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 23.1 – Selected 81st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Hamel is a high spin rate pitcher with a low 90’s fastball and the potential for 3 quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). He had a 4.22 ERA in the Missouri Valley Conference, but his 1.11 WHIP and 136/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP looked much better. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.33/1.33/146 in 155 IP

498) Dominic Canzone ARI, OF, 24.8 – Canzone broke out at Double-A with 7 homers and a 1.017 OPS in 35 games, and then he went to the AFL and dominated with a .905 OPS in 18 games. He might not have the highest upside but he’s been a damn good hitter since his freshman year in the Big Ten and could provide solid across the board production at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 48/14/55/.258/.319/.430/6

499) Miguel Hiraldo TOR, 2B/3B, 21.7 – Hiraldo made his full season debut (other than 1 game in 2019) and he was exactly league average with a 100 wRC+. His power output was a little disappointing with 7 homers in 105 games, and while he stole 29 bags, it’s hard to buy into that consider the rule differences. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 62/15/63/.248/.321/.426/7

500) Keoni Cavaco MIN, SS, 20.10 – Cavaco was considered a bit of a project when he was drafted 13th overall, so I’m willing to give him one more year before I jump ship. He was awful in 2021 with a 67 wRC+ and 34.2%/6.9% K%/BB% in 60 games at Single-A. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 41/12/43/.234/.291/.422/8

501) Braylin Tavera BAL, OF, 17.1 – Tavera is 6’2”, 175 pounds with plus speed, a good feel to hit and developing power. His swing doesn’t look quite as smooth and/or beastly as other top international guys, so there is plenty of time to refine that. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/19/74/.252/.321/.429/14

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 11, 2022March 11, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Top 100 2022 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

Baseball is m*th#rf*ck^ng back! Let’s celebrate the new CBA by kicking off the release of my off-season Dynasty Rankings. We start today with the Top 100 2022 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

Tier 1

1) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 19.4 – Selected 4th overall, Mayer stays loose and easy in his stance before unleashing a vicious lefty swing that has monster offensive potential written all over it. He did show some swing and miss in his pro debut with a 25.2% K% in 26 games, but he has a mature plate approach (14% BB%) and a swing that is geared for both power and average. He put up a 121 wRC+. Lack of speed is the only issue for fantasy, and it is the reason he is far from a lock for the top pick in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/25/88/.274/.346/.478/8

2) Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 18.11 – Selected 16th overall, Watson’s upside is high as anyone’s in the draft with lightening quick bat speed and a plus power/speed combo from the left side. He only fell to 16th overall due to signing bonus demands (he ended up with the 10th highest bonus). While he didn’t show much power in his 9 game pro debut (60% GB% with 0 homers), he did steal 4 bags and had an excellent 16.7%/19% K%/BB% in an obviously very small sample. This is the type of upside you look for when drafting at the top of first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/22/83/.272/.342/.458/18

3) Jack Leiter TEX, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 2nd overall, Leiter can dominate with just his mid 90’s fastball, but he also has a deep repertoire of pitches, throwing a 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, curve (best secondary), slider and change. He understands the art of pitching which is no surprise considering his dad is Al Leiter. He’s only 6 feet, and his control can waver, but it didn’t stop him from putting up a dominant pitching line of 2.13/0.85/179/45 in 110 IP in the SEC. This could be the rare year when it makes sense to take a pitcher first. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 15/3.48/1.17/218 in 185 IP

4) Brady House WAS, SS, 18.10 – Selected 11th overall, House is a big physical hitter at 6’4”, 215 pounds who has double plus raw power and takes monster hacks at the dish with quick bat speed. He ripped 4 homers in his 16 game pro debut. He also has a mature plate approach and is a good athlete. I have him ranked over Watson in my Points/6+ Category Top 600 Dynasty Rankings which devalues speed and juices up good real life hitters. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/28/92/.268/.339/.492/7

5) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 19.8 – Selected 6th overall, Lawlar has a relatively simple, quick swing that he uses to make tons of contact with the ability to lift the ball. He has plus speed and the power should develop naturally to above average at the least. A shoulder injury that required surgery ended his pro debut after just two games, which is just enough of a bump in the road for me to move him down a few spots on my draft board. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/20/79/.270/.335/.442/16

6) Henry Davis PIT, C, 22.7 – Selected 1st overall, Davis’ power breakout happened in the shortened 2020 season, and it carried over into 2021 with Davis slashing .370/.482/.663 with 15 homers, 10 steals, and a 24/31 K/BB in 50 games. He’s got a thick build and absolutely scorches the ball. He stepped right into pro ball and ripped 3 homers in 8 games at mostly High-A before an oblique injury ended his season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/26/89/.268/.337/.481/6

7) Seiya Suzuki FRA, OF, 27.7 – Suzuki has dominated in Japan since 2016 with a righty swing that is both easy and explosive. He ripped a career high 38 homers in 2021, and he combines the power with an advanced plate approach (16.5%/16.4% K%/BB%) and some speed (9 steals in 13 attempts). I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter. If you are a win now team who needs an OF, Suzuki should be in heavy consideration at #1. 2022 Projection: 77/24/81/.264/.336/.463/7

8) Harry Ford SEA, C, 19.2 – Selected 12th overall, Ford generates plus power with one of the quickest bats in the draft, notching an 80.8 MPH max barrel speed which is in the 98.86 percentile of his high school class (stats from Perfect Game). He also had plus speed with a 6.5 second 60 yard dash. He used those skills to rake in his pro debut, slashing .291/.400/.582 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 21.5%/13.8% K%/BB% in 19 games. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/27/85/.262/.338/.486/10

9) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 22.0 – Drafted 5th overall, Cowser’s power exploded this season with 16 homers in 55 games in the Southland Conference. That was the final piece to the puzzle as he has shown a good feel to hit with an advanced plate approach from the second he stepped on campus. He then followed that up with a strong pro debut, putting up a 158 wRC+ with a 15.3%/17.7% K%/BB% in 25 games at Single-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 85/20/80/.278/.350/.458/9

Tier 2

10) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 3rd overall, Jobe has a devastating slider that is an elite pitch with high spin rates. He pairs that with a mid 90’s fastball and a changeup that flashes plus. The delivery is athletic, and while he still needs some refinement, he is the highest upside high school arm in the class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 14/3.55/1.19/195 in 177 IP

11) Benny Montgomery COL, OF, 19.7 – Selected 8th overall, Montgomery is possibly the highest upside bat in the class, putting up a 103 MPH exit velocity and a 6.32 60 yard dash time. That puts him at the top of the class in power and speed. His hit tool was supposed to be raw, but it actually looked pretty good in his pro debut, slashing .340/.404/.383 with 0 homers, 5 steals and a 17.3%/9.6% K%/BB% in 14 games. He wasn’t able to get to any of his power with a 55.6% groundball percentage, but seeing the strong K% is almost more important at this stage of the game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/24/83/.258/.332/.460/15

12) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 19.4 – Selected 30th overall, Allen is a 3 sport star and is one of the best athletes in the class. He’s 6’3”, 190 pounds and takes some vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing much more power is coming. Even without concentrating on baseball full time he has shown a good feel to hit with the potential for a plus power/speed combo. He impressed right out of the gate in his pro debut, slashing .328/.440/.557 with 3 homers, 14 steals (in 15 attempts) and a 16%/10.7% K%/BB% in 19 games. He’s a major target of mine in off-season prospect drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/20/74/.273/.335/.446/20

13) James Wood SDP, OF, 19.7 – Selected 62nd overall, Wood is a big and athletic lefty at 6’7”, 240 pounds with plus power and above average run times. He dominated rookie ball in his pro debut, slashing .372/.465/.535 with 3 homers, 10 steals and a 31.7%/12.9% K%/BB% in 26 games. Like any player this tall, he has some hit tool concerns, and his GB% was a bit high at 49%. This is basically the Oneil Cruz starter kit with not quite as much speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/25/81/.247/.326/.458/9

14) Sal Frelick MIL, OF, 22.0 – Selected 15th overall, Frelick has a plus hit, plus speed profile. He’s undersized, and while he doesn’t project for big power numbers, the ball jumps off his bat. He has a strong history of production in the ACC, slashing .345/.435/.521 with 12 homers, 38 steals, and a 50/60 K/BB in 102 games, and he proved those skills will transfer in his pro debut. He has the type of profile that should move through the minors quickly. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 81/14/65/.276/.339/.412/17

15) Matt McLain CIN, SS, 22.8 – Selected 17th overall, McLain is a safe college bat with a good feel to hit, some pop, and plus speed, but doesn’t stand out in any one category. He slashed .333/.434/.579 with 9 homers, 9 steals, and a 34/34 K/BB in 47 games at UCLA, and then performed well in his pro debut at High-A, slashing .273/.387/.424 with 3 homers, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 29 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/18/71/.274/.343/.425/15

16) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 21.11 – Selected 20th overall, Sweeney was a bat first prospect who absolutely raked in college this year, slashing .382/.522/.712 with 14 homers and a 24/46 K/BB in 48 games. He immediately showed his power is legit with 7 homers in 32 games in his pro debut at mostly Single-A. Coming out of the Ohio Valley Conference, he has still yet to face top level competition, but the Yankees are clearly believers, and his pro debut did nothing to prove them wrong. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.261/.337/.457/5

17) Sam Bachman LAA, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 9th overall, Bachman has an aggressive, attacking delivery that he uses to fire upper 90’s heat with a nasty plus slider. He had some shoulder soreness early in the year, but was lights out when on the mound with a pitching line of 1.81/0.77/93/17 in 59.2 IP. There is some reliever risk, but the stuff is electric. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.21/179 in 163 IP

18) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.0 – Selected 13th overall, Painter is a big dude at 6’7”, 215 pounds and throws a 4 pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, change) with an easy repeatable delivery. He’s displayed good control and all of his pitches have the potential to be above average at least. He dominated in his pro debut with 0 ER and a 12/0 K/BB over 6 IP in rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 14/3.71/1.18/198 in 183 IP

19) James Triantos CHC, 2B/SS, 19.2 – Selected 56th overall, Triantos had an eye opening pro debut, slashing .327/.376/.594 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.5%/6.4% K%/BB% in 25 games in rookie ball. He has a textbook righty swing and a great feel to hit. He doesn’t project for huge power, but he should be able to get to all of the power he has through quality of contact. The hype has started to percolate for him, but he should still come at a good value in off-season drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 85/23/78/.283/.341/.462/6

20) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 17.7 – The crown jewel of this year’s international free agent class, Arias is a switch hitter with an all around skillset that could develop in any number of directions. He’s shown a good feel to hit with the ability to hit it hard and has above average speed. Defense might be his best tool at the moment. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/21/81/.268/.335/.453/12

21) Cristian Vaquero WAS, OF, 17.8 – Vaquero is expected to sign for the top signing bonus in the international class and has the requisite upside to back that up. He’s an elite athlete at 6’3”, 185 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and the frame to tack on more muscle. The hit tool is still raw, so the risk is high. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/24/85/.258/.331/.462/14

22) Colson Montgomery CHW, SS, 20.4 – Selected 22nd overall, Montgomery is a big lefty with big power potential. He’s not fast, but he’s not a lumbering slugger either as he was a standout basketball player too. On the downside, he’s old for the high school class and there are swing and miss concerns. He had a solid but unspectacular pro debut, slashing .287/.396/.362 with 0 homers, a 59.4% GB%, 0 steals and a 19.8%/11.7% K%/BB% in 26 games in rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/23/80/.263/.335/.457/6

23) Gunnar Hoglund TOR, RHP, 22.4 – Selected 19th overall, Hoglund underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to be out until mid-season 2022. When healthy, he uses an easy, rhythmic delivery that produces high spin rates and plus control/command over a 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). All of his pitches have the potential to be above average and play up because of his command. He dominated before the injury with a pristine 13.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 (2.87 ERA). Fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s could be the last piece to top of the rotation potential. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 13/3.77/1.19/185 in 171 IP

24) Will Bednar SFG, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 14th overall, Bednar has MLB bloodlines with his brother, David, breaking out in Pittsburgh’s pen. Will throws low to mid 90’s heat with a plus slider and a developing changeup. His numbers in the SEC have been very good with a pitching line of 3.22/1.14/136/26 in 89.1 IP over 2020-21. There isn’t huge upside, but landing in San Francisco is the best possible spot for a pitching prospect. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.29/173 in 165 IP

Tier 3

25) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 18.9 – Selected 54th overall, Baez was one of the youngest players in the draft and has one of the best power projections, notching a 102 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event. He’s also relatively fast with a 6.67 60 yard dash time, showing he is not just a lumbering slugger. He doesn’t project for major strikeout issues, but there is some swing and miss to his game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/25/84/.253/.336/.473/8

26) Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 23.5 – Expected to sign with Chicago in the upcoming international free agent period for $2.7 million. Colas used to be a two way player, but is now focusing solely on hitting. He’s a built up 6’1”, 209 pounds with a smooth and powerful lefty swing that is reminiscent of many successful lefthanded power hitters. He has a strong history of production in Cuba and Japan professional leagues, showing present plus power. There is plenty of inherent, unknown risks, but I would be willing to take a shot on him. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/24/81/.262/.331/.469/6

27) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 17.6 – Montes is a 6’4”, 205 pound power hitting beast with good athleticism. Just check out this video of him demolishing the ball, and listen to the sound off the bat. The power hitting upside is obvious. He’s one of my favorite FYPD targets this year. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/27/85/.258/.336/.482/5

28) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 21st overall, Wicks is a safe pick that is more appealing the deeper the league is. His money maker is a double plus changeup that he relies on heavily. The fastball sits in the low 90’s and he has two average-ish breaking balls with his slider being the better of the two pitches. He had a pitching line of 3.70/1.28/118/28 in 92.1 IP in the Big 12, so while that is solid, he hasn’t exactly been lights out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.09/1.28/176 in 173 IP

29) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 22.8 – Selected 23rd overall, Williams always had the big fastball which can now reach 100 MPH, and in 2021 his control (2.3 BB/9) and secondaries (curve, slider, change) took big steps forward en route to a pitching line of 1.88/0.96/130/21 in 81.1 IP. He’s old for the class and has major reliever risk, but the stuff is exciting. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.03/1.34/164 in 151 IP

30) Zack Gelof OAK, 3B, 22.5 – Selected 60th overall, Gelof is 6’3”, 205 pounds with plus power to all fields. He hit only 9 homers in 63 games in the ACC this year, but Virginia’s home ballpark is notorious for suppressing power. He proved the power was real in his pro debut, smashing 7 homers with a 143 wRC+ in 32 games at Single-A before going 7 for 12 in his 3 game Triple-A cup of coffee. He’s also a good athlete with a very successful career on the bases in college which carried over into pro ball (13 steals in 15 attempts). He’s one of my favorite under the radar first year player draft targets, although he isn’t that under the radar anymore. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/24/79/.261/.326/.462/8

31) Ty Madden DET, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 32nd overall, Madden uses an overhead delivery that vaguely reminds me a bit of Ian Anderson to throw a traditional 4-pitch mix highlighted by mid-90’s heat. He struggled with control in 2019, but was much better in 2020 and that was carried over somewhat in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.41/1.05/119/39 in 100.2 IP. He’s a relatively safe starter with some upside still in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/4.02/1.29/170 in 170 IP

32) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 18th overall, McGreevy is a control artist who had a 1.5 BB/9 in his college career over 189.1 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a low 90’s sinker and 3 secondaries (curve-best secondary, slider, change), but he’s young for his class and there could be more in the tank. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.26/158 in 170 IP

33) Max Muncy OAK, SS, 19.6 – Selected 25th overall, Muncy is in the 99th percentile of the high school class for exit velocity and in the 95th percentile for bat speed (according to Perfect Game). He projects for only average speed and he also has some hit tool risk, evidenced by a 35.3% K% in his 11 game pro debut, but the dude can put a charge into the ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/22/84/.258/.330/.447/9

34) Chase Petty MIN, RHP, 19.0 – Selected 26th overall, Petty slings a mid 90’s fastball that has hit over 100 MPH from a 3/4 arm slot. His slider and changeup are both a work in progress but both flash above average potential. There is some reliever risk, but Petty has the upside to end up the top prep pitcher in this draft class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.28/183 in 171 IP

35) Ryan Cusick ATL, RHP, 22.5 – Selected 24th overall, the ball absolutely explodes out of Cusick’s hand with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a plus curve. He racks up strikeouts with 108 K’s in 70 IP, but control is a major issue with 32 walks, and his 4.24 ERA (1.39 WHIP) isn’t exactly great. His control looked better in his small sample pro debut with 4 walks in 16.1 IP at Single-A, and it didn’t impact his K rate at all with 34 strikeouts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.33/169 in 158 IP

Tier 4

36) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Selected 86th overall, Binelas is a built up 6’3”, 225 pounds with plus power and hit tool concerns. He’s done nothing but crush homers in his career, hitting 14 dingers in 59 games in the ACC in 2019, 19 dingers in 50 ACC games in 2021, and then 9 dingers in 29 games in his pro debut at Single-A. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/78/.245/.317/.472/1

37) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 21.10 – Selected 41st overall, Norby put up eye popping numbers in the American Athletic Conference, slashing .415/.484/.659 with 15 homers, 18 steals, and a 34/33 K/BB in 61 games. He carried over that success into pro ball with a 135 wRC+ in 26 games at Single-A. He doesn’t have huge raw power at 5’10”, 187 pounds, and his groundball rates were relatively high in his pro debut, but he’s setting up to be a very good all around hitter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/18/77/.273/.337/.438/9

38) Izaac Pacheco DET, SS, 19.5 – Selected 39th overall, Pacheco is built up with a smooth and powerful lefthanded swing. He has big power potential and a patient plate approach, but it comes with some swing and miss concerns which he showed in his pro debut with a 34.4% K% in 30 games. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/23/79/.253/.338/.450/4

39) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 18.9 – Selected 28th overall, Williams was one of the youngest players in his class and still stepped right into pro ball and performed well with a 130 wRC+ in 11 games. He has a good feel to hit with quick bat speed, and at 6’2”, 180 pounds more power is definitely coming as he matures. He also has some speed. He’s shaping up to be an above average all category contributor. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 79/22/80/.268/.333/.447/9

40) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 18.11 – Selected 27th overall, Merrill surely looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a sweet looking lefty swing. He was solid in his pro debut with a 22.5%/8.3% K%/BB% and 5 steals in 31 games, but he hit 0 homers and put up a 92 wRC+. He doesn’t really have a standout offensive skill, but you don’t have to be a super scout to watch him and realize there is definitely potential in the bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/21/79/.262/.327/.438/7

41) Lonnie White PIT, OF, 19.3 – Selected 64th overall, White had committed to Penn State, my alma mater, for baseball and football (wide receiver), and he definitely has the WR body at 6’3”, 205 pounds. That shows the type of athlete we are talking about here. He has some of the highest upside in the draft with a potentially plus power/speed combo, but the hit tool is still raw. He hit 2 homers with a 42.4% K% in his 9 game pro debut. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/28/84/.244/.317/.474/13

42) Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 19.4 – Selected 37th overall, Solometo is a big lefty with a funky delivery that is a little reminiscent of Josh Hader when he was in the minors. His fastball isn’t as big as Hader’s, sitting in the low to mid 90’s, but he does have the plus swing and miss breaking ball. He lacks a third pitch, but I’m a sucker for this type of pitcher. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.27/178 in 165 IP

43) Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 21.8 – Selected 33rd overall, Black dominated the Horizon League with a 1.179 OPS in 48 games, but he had a rough pro debut where his K% spiked to 28.2% in 23 games at Single-A (.660 OPS). His mature plate approach and good feel to hit are his best skills, but he doesn’t project to hit for big power or speed. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/18/71/.270/.342/.437/9

44) Cooper Kinney TBR, 2B/3B, 19.2 – Selected 34th overall, Kinney’s best skill is his plus hit tool, and he showed it off in his pro debut with a .286 BA and 19.1%/21.3% K%/BB% in 11 games. He doesn’t have much power, but at 6’3”, 200 pounds, he should grow into at least average power at peak. He also doesn’t have much speed, so he’s a safe high school bat with limited upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.275/.347/.420/5

45) Frank Mozzicato KC, LHP, 18.10 – Selected 7th overall, Mozzicato is a 6’3”, 175 pound lefty with a low 90’s fastball, plus curve, and developing changeup. Although he was drafted 7th, he signed for only the 16th highest signing bonus, which is just a reminder to not be too tied to draft position in dynasty for first year player drafts. Regardless, he has room to fill out and add velocity, which would take his game to the next level. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/4.08/1.31/163 in 160 IP

46) Jordan Viars PHI, 1B/OF, 18.8 – Selected 84th overall, Viars is 6’4”, 215 pounds with plus raw power from the left side. He showed an advanced plate approach in his pro debut with a 18.8%/17.2% K%/BB% and 132 wRC+ in 22 games in rookie ball. He is also young for his class. This is a high upside power bat who you should be able to get for cheap in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/23/78/.255/.331/.463/5

Tier 5

47) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 17.7 – Bergolla isn’t physically imposing at 5’11”. 175 pounds, but he has baseball bloodlines with a good feel to hit, an advanced plate approach and plus speed. If the power shows up even a little bit, he can be an electric all category player. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/15/71/.276/.341/.418/18

48) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 17.5 – Projected for the 3rd highest signing bonus in the international class, Cabrera is an excellent athlete with plus speed, a good feel to hit and developing power. All of these international prospects feel like taking shots in the dark, but he’s the type of all around player with all category production that is worth gambling on. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/20/75/.260/.325/.435/10

49) Bubba Chandler PIT, SS/RHP, 19.7 – Selected 72nd overall, Chandler is a great athlete who was committed to Clemson for football and baseball. He’s also a two way player whose future is likely on the mound. Fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s with a potentially plus breaking ball and a developing change. The natural talent gives him the ingredients to turn into a top of the rotation starter, but he’s not quite there yet. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.25/170 in 160 IP

50) Wes Kath CHW, 3B, 19.8 – Selected 57th overall, Kath is a bat first prospect who is projected for plus power from the left side at 6’3”, 200 pounds. His swing is pretty, and while he isn’t projected for major hit tool concerns, he did strikeout 36.5% over 28 games in his pro debut in rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.253/.326/.450/4

51) Ethan Wilson PHI, OF, 22.5 – Selected 49th overall, Wilson is a powerful lefty who had a monster freshman year, slashing .345/.453/.686 with 17 homers and a 45/36 K/BB in 56 games. He wasn’t able to replicate that this season with only 8 homers, partly because he was banged up early in the season, but he still finished strong with a .943 OPS and 21/33 K/BB in 56 games. He didn’t play in the toughest conference and there are still some questions about his hit tool which materialized in his pro debut as he put up a .215 BA in 30 games at Single-A. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 59/17/65/.248/.321/.444/4

52) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 18.7 – Cho is a projectable 6’3”, 200 pound lefty with a smooth and powerful swing. He looks damn good in BP and homerun derbies. There isn’t much info on him other than the hype videos, and he is unproven in games, so the risk is high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/82/.257/.326/.449/7

53) Anthony Gutierrez TEX, OF, 17.4 – Gutierrez is your classic high upside international prospect at a projectable 6’3”, 190 pounds with the potential for a plus power/speed combo. You can see the type of athlete we are talking about in this video. It’s hard to predict if he will gain weight and slow down, or stay lean and keep his speed, but either way he has a path to be an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/22/81/.263/.328/.438/12

54) Ky Bush LAA, LHP, 22.5 – Selected 45th overall, Bush is a large man at 6’6”, 240 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider. He also throws a developing curve and change. His control took a step forward in 2021 with a 2.2 BB/9 in 78 IP in the West Coast Conference (4.8 BB/9 in 2019), and he showed his strikeout stuff will translate to pro ball with 20 K’s in 12 IP in his pro debut at High-A. There is legitimate upside here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.29/180 in 168 IP

55) Ben Kudrna KC, RHP, 19.2 – Selected 43rd overall, Kudrna has an easy, athletic delivery with the ability to throw strikes. His fastball is now up into the mid to uppers 90’s with a potentially plus slider and developing change. He still needs to refine his secondaries, but at 6’3”, 200 pounds, there is a lot to like. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/4.13/1.28/160 in 160 IP

56) Matt Mikulski SFG, LHP, 22.10 – Selected 50th overall, Mikulski broke out in a big way his senior year in the Atlantic 10 with a pitching line of 1.45/0.82/124/27 in 68.1 IP. He throws a fastball that can consistently reach the mid 90’s to go along with 3 potentially quality secondaries in his change (best secondary), slider and curve. He has a funky-ish lefty deliver which I’m always a sucker for, but it results in some control problems and reliever risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.31/155 in 155 IP

57) Joe Mack MIA, C, 19.3 – Selected 31st overall, Mack is the top high school catcher in the draft with a history of strong performance against top competition. He has a quick left handed swing that should lead to plus power at peak. He struggled in his pro debut with a .581 OPS, but a .373 OBP shows he wasn’t completely overmatched. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 63/20/72/.258/.340/.442/3

58) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 21.8 – Selected 63rd overall, the best way to describe Manzardo is that he looks very hitter-ish at the dish. He has a lefty swing that is geared for both average and power, using the whole field to hit .362 with 11 homers in 47 games in the Pac12 before destroying rookie ball for 13 games (1.045 OPS). He’s hit over power right now, but he’s young for the class and should naturally grow into more power as he ages. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.272/.334/.456/2

59) Tony Blanco PIT, OF, 16.11 – Blanco is 6’6”, 230 pounds with some of the best raw power in the class. His dad played in the majors and he shows the corresponding mature plate approach that often goes along with having baseball bloodlines. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/30/91/.260/.335/.496/2

60) Tyler Whitaker HOU, OF, 19.8 – Selected 87th overall, Whitaker is a high risk, high reward prospect with double-plus speed and plus power, but the hit tool is a major risk. He lived up to that billing in his pro debut with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 35.1%/7.9% K%/BB% in 29 games. Grab him late in first year player drafts if you want to swing for the fences. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 62/18/71/.234/.307/.443/11

61) Aaron Zavala TEX, OF, 21.9 – Selected 38th overall, Zavala might not have the highest upside, but he’s a rock solid hitter who put up a 31/50 K/BB in 55 games in the Pac12 before entering pro ball and slashing .302/.433/.434 with 1 homer, 7 steals, and a 19.4%/14.9% K%/BB% in 15 games at Single-A. He has a quick lefty swing with a plus plate approach and about average power and speed. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/16/68/.266/.335/.416/8

62) Ryan Bliss ARI, SS, 22.4 – Selected 42nd overall, Bliss performed well in the SEC, slashing .365/.428/.654 with 15 homers, 6 steals, and a 30/23 K/BB in 50 games. He got to his power in his pro debut as well with 6 homers and a 22.9%/7.4% K%/BB% in 37 games at Single-A. He’s only 5’9”, 165 pounds, so there likely isn’t a ton of MLB power, but he’s hit everywhere he’s been and he has some speed too. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/19/74/.263/.324/.437/8

63) Jose Torres CIN, SS, 22.6 – Selected 89th overall, Torres didn’t exactly destroy the ACC with a .876 OPS and 39/13 K/BB in 52 games, but he raked even more in pro ball, slashing .333/.387/.591 with 5 homers and 7 steals in 28 games at mostly Single-A. He’s 6’0”, 171 pounds, so there is room to add more muscle and the 15.9% K% in pro ball is encouraging. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/20/77/.264/.318/.432/7

64) Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 19.4 – Selected 47th overall, Lile’s best tool is his hit tool, which is generally not my favorite type of player to go after in fantasy. Power and speed could end up about average. His pro debut wasn’t great, slashing .219/.363/.250 with 0 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/18.8% K%/BB% in 19 games at rookie ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/15/64/.278/.341/.417/6

65) Diego Benitez ATL, SS, 17.4 – Benitez signed for $2.5 million and he has the requisite skills to back that up. He has potentially plus power with an already pretty powerful righty swing. He combines that with a solid plate approach and some speed. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.257/.328/.458/6

66) Yasser Mercedes MIN, OF, 17.5 – Mercedes is a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds with plus speed and a silky smooth righty swing that could produce plus power at peak, but he has some hit tool risk. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/20/76/.245/.316/.431/12

67) T.J. White WAS, OF, 18.8 – Selected 143rd overall, White is 6’2”, 210 pounds with plus bat speed and big raw power. He impressed in his pro debut, slashing .283/.356/.547 with 4 homers and a 23.7%/8.5% K%/BB% in 15 games. He’s a switch hitter with a lefty swing that is geared for power and a righty swing that is more line drive oriented. There are hit tool concerns and he doesn’t have much speed, but he’s a great power bat to grab late in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/75/.252/.325/.468/2

68) Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 21.11 – Selected 127th overall, Clarke has monster potential at 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, but you guessed it, it comes with major hit tool risk. He performed well against inferior competition in the Big West Conference and in rookie ball, but even there it comes with K’s (27.3% K% in rookie ball and 23.1% this year in the Big West). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/19/72/.233/.304/.439/9

69) Chayce McDermott HOU, RHP, 23.7 – Selected 132nd overall, McDermott comes from an athletic family as his brother, Sean McDermott, is in the NBA with the Memphis Grizzlies. Chayce is 6’3”, 197 pounds with a fastball that can consistently hit the mid 90’s and a potentially plus breaking ball. He also throws an average curve and a developing changeup. He put up a 44.6% K% in his pro debut at Single-A in 18.1 IP, but he needs to work on his control (13.5% BB%). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.33/158 in 155 IP

70) Christian Franklin CHC, OF, 22.4 – Selected 123rd overall, Franklin has some swing and miss issues with high strikeout rates throughout his college career, but he has a fantasy friendly profile with an exciting power/speed combo and a history of production in the SEC. He’s slashed .274/.420/.544 with 13 homers, 11 steals, and a 78/44 K/BB in 61 games at Arkansas. He hits the ball hard with excellent bat speed and high walk rates, but the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 62/16/62/.243/.319/.422/8

71) Simon Juan NYM, OF, 16.9 – Juan is one of the youngest players in the international class and has some of the highest power/speed upside with a quick and powerful righty swing, but he has some hit tool risk. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/24/81/.248/.318/.450/16

72) Samuel Munoz LAD, 3B, 17.6 – Munoz is a 6’3”, 190 lefty who with an advanced plate approach, plus power projection, and is a good athlete. With little information on many of these international prospects, taking shots on guys in good developmental organizations like LA isn’t a bad idea. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.264/.338/.474/5

73) Ryan Reckley SFG, SS, 17.7 – Signed for $2.2 million, Reckley is an advanced hitter with developing power and plus speed. How much power he can get too at 5’10”, 160 pounds will dictate his upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/18/71/.273/.342/.437/21

74) Yendry Rojas SDP, SS, 17.2 – Rojas is already pretty built up relative to other 17 year olds at 6’0”, 185 pounds and he’s shown a good feel to hit with projectable power and speed. He has a powerful and quick lefty swing that is made to do damage. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/22/81/.267/.325/.448/10

75) Maddux Bruns LAD, LHP, 19.10 – Selected 29th overall, Bruns is a high risk/high reward pitcher with with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider, but he’s had control problems and consistently issues. He gave up 9 earned with a 5/7 K/BB in 5 IP in his pro debut. The Dodgers are one of the best development organizations in baseball, so I’m more willing to take a shot on him than if he was drafted by a lesser org. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 7/3.82/1.31/129 in 120 IP

76) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 19.6 – Selected 46th overall, Ziegler is a pretty built up 6’0”, 205 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus curve and developing change. His fastball control is solid, he just needs to continue to refine his secondaries and overall command. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.28/155 in 155 IP

77) Robert Gasser SDP, LHP, 22.10 – Selected 71st overall, Gasser is a “crafty lefty” with a low 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and average changeup. He had a 1.20 ERA with a 14/2 K/BB in 15 IP at mostly Single-A in his pro debut. He profiles as a back end starter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.28/1.28/150 in 160 IP

78) Doug Nikhazy CLE, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 58th overall, Nikhazy put up some eye popping numbers in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.45/1.01/142/31 in 92 IP. He throws two potentially plus breaking balls in his curve and slider, to go along with a low 90’s fastball and developing change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.23/1.31/166 in 160 IP

79) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 19.7 – Selected 91st overall, Tiedemann is 6’4”, 220 pounds with a fastball he can get up into the mid 90’s and two potentially quality secondaries in his changeup and slider. He’s still on the raw side, but a big lefty with 3 potentially good pitches is a great foundation. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.35/1.34/153 in 160 IP

80) Adrian Del Castillo ARI, C, 22.6 – Selected 67th overall, Castillo has one of the most advanced bats in the class with a strong history of performance in the ACC from the second he stepped on campus, slashing .311/.410/.499 with 17 homers and a 60/70 K/BB in 131 NCAA games. Home run power hasn’t developed as hoped with only 3 homers in 54 games this season, so while he hits the ball hard, the fantasy upside seems lacking. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/14/62/.261/.327/.411/2

81) Javier Osorio DET, SS, 17.0 – Osorio has a quick righty bat with a good feel to hit and plenty of power projection on his 6’0”, 165 pound frame. He has speed too, and while he doesn’t look quite as physically impressive as some of the others in his class, he can be formidable all category contributor. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/20/76/.272/.339/.452/9

82) Johan Barrios MIL, SS, 17.3 – Barrios is 6’3”, 180 pounds with a good feel to hit and the potential for a plus power/speed combo. The upside is high, and there is barely any hype even relative to other international guys. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/22/78/.258/.326/.448/12

83) Dyan Jorge COL, SS, 18.4, 6’2”, 170 – Projected for the 4th highest signed bonus in his class, Jorge is razor thin with plus speed and top notch athleticism. He is still raw, so the risk is high, but the upside is high too if it all comes together. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/15/69/.252/.321/.413/18

84) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 23.7 – Selected 316th overall, Kavadas has some of the best pure power in the draft, crushing 22 homers in 47 games in the ACC. He fell to the 11th round because of signing bonus demands and the fact he was a 4 year college player, but none of that changes the very real juice in his lefty bat at 6’1”, 235 pounds. He has strikeout issues and no defensive value, so like many of these 1B prospects, his bat needs to hit close to his ceiling. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 42/17/49/.237/.323/.458/0

85) Jaden Hill COL, RHP, 22.3 – Hill isn’t necessarily the 11th best prospect in the system, but I thought he is worth mentioning because he would be ranked higher if he didn’t get selected by Colorado 44th overall. He tore his UCL in his 7th start of the season and will likely be out for most of 2022. He has nasty stuff when healthy with a mid 90’s fastball and a slider and changeup that have flashed plus, but he struggled to put it together in his first full year as a starter with a pitching line of 6.67/1.38/25/12 in 29.1 IP. Despite the obvious talent, there was already performance risk, and now you can tack on injury risk and Coors risk. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 8/4.36/1.34/152 in 150 IP

86) Wes Clarke MIL, 1B/C, 22.5 – Selected 297th overall, Clarke jacked 23 homers with a 73/50 K/BB in 57 SEC games, and then entered pro ball and cranked 4 homers with a 21/21 K/BB in 21 games at Single-A. He has little defensive value and major hit tool concerns, but the power and patience profile is enticing for fantasy. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 41/16/46/.224/.316/.447/0

87) Cody Morissette MIA, 2B/3B, 22.2 – Selected 52nd overall, Morissette’s college numbers don’t jump out at you (6 homers with a .895 OPS in 41 games), but he has a smooth lefty that should lead to more homers in the future. He’s a versatile defender who projects to be a solid all around player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/16/66/.263/.326/.423/8

88) Freili Encarnacion BOS, SS, 17.2 – Encarnacion has some of the best power in the class with plus potential. He can hit for a high average too and is a good athlete, so he’s not just a lumbering slugger. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.266/.332/.477/6

89) Carlos Pacheco OAK, OF, 17.5 – Pacheco is 5’11”, 175 pounds with a plus hit, plus speed profile. How much power he’s able to get to will dictate his upside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/15/68/.271/.333/.415/18

90) Jaison Chourio CLE, OF, 16.10 – Jaison’s older brother, Jackson, was a DSL breakout in 2021, so why not role the dice with the next Chourio. He has a similar skillset with a good fell to hit, plus speed, and developing power. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 79/15/67/.268/.336/.416/18

91) Sean Burke CHW, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 94th overall, Burke is 6’6”, 230 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball, but he needs to improve his control (5.1 BB/9 in 74.1 SEC innings), and the consistency of his secondaries (slider, curve, change). He’s high risk, high reward. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/3.92/1.36/121 in 110 IP

92) Noah Miller MIN, SS, 19.5 – Selected 36th overall, Miller is a switch hitter with a potentially plus hit tool and advanced approach, although he put up a 27.1% K% in his 22 game pro debut. He combines that with potentially average power and speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/16/63/.267/.328/.424/7

Tier 6

93) Landon Marceaux LAA, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 80th overall, Marceaux doesn’t have huge stuff with a low 90’s fastball, but he dominated the SEC because he understands the art of pitching. He has good control over a 4 pitch mix and tunnels his pitches well. Plus curve is his best pitch. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.29/1.27/152 in 160 IP

94) Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 22.10 – Selected 53rd overall, Abbott transitioned into the rotation in 2021 and he took to it quite well, putting up a pitching line of 2.87/1.13/162/32 in 106.2 IP in the ACC. The strikeout prowess transferred to pro ball with a 22/4 K/BB in 13 IP at mostly Single-A. He throws a low 90’s fastball with a plus curve and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/4.12/1.30/127 in 120 IP

95) Peyton Wilson KCR, 2B, 22.5 – Selected 66th overall, Wilson is a switch hitter with plus speed and some pop, and while his plate approach is solid (41/22 K/BB in 58 SEC games), it might not be quite good enough to be a full time MLB player considering limited power potential at 5’9”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 52/10/47/.253/.313/.412/10

96) Corey Rosier SDP, OF, 22.7 – Selected 354th overall, Rosier proved his numbers from the Southern Conference will transfer to pro ball, slashing .380/.451/.570 with 3 homers, 13 steals, and a 14.2%/12.8% K%/BB% in 32 games at mostly Single-A. He’s a good defensive CF with the potential for modest across the board production. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/15/63/.268/.323/.417/9

97) Tyler McDonough BOS, 2B/OF, 23.0 – Selected 75th overall, McDonough is a do a little bit of everything switch hitter who can play all over the field. He’s had a good feel to hit and some speed from his freshman year, and he added more power this year with 15 homers in 55 ACC games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 64/13/57/.264/.321/.417/7

98) Reed Trimble BAL, OF, 21.10 – Selected 65th overall, Trimble is a high risk, high reward player with plus speed and plus raw power, but he’s still a bit raw at the dish. He struggled in Single-A in his pro debut with a 41 wRC+, but he’s one of the younger players in the college class and the upside is worth taking a shot on at this point. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 51/14/59/.242/.310/.426/10

99) Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 59th overall, Schwellenbach is a two way player whose future is likely on the mound. He didn’t pitch at all until his Junior year because of an elbow injury that required surgery, and he was only used out of the pen. The stuff is excellent though with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus secondaries in his slider and change. He was lights out coming out of the pen with a 0.57 ERA and 34/8 K/BB in 31.2 IP, but he has to prove he can handle a starter’s workload and stay healthy, so the risk is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/4.05/1.32/105 in 100 IP

100) Edwin Arroyo SEA, SS, 18.7 – Selected 48th overall, Arroyo is a plus defensive player who doesn’t have the highest offensive upside. He struggled a bit in his pro debut in stateside rookie ball with a 30.2% K% and 84 wRC+, but considering he was only 17 years old that isn’t too bad. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/17/73/.254/.316/.432/7

101) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 17.0 – Mejia is a switch hitter who is known for his good feel to hit, and while he doesn’t project for huge power and speed numbers, he certainly has impact potential in those categories depending on his development. St. Louis has had a lot of success developing guys who know how to hit first and foremost. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 78/19/73/.277/.331/.432/8

102) Yordani De Los Santos PIT, SS, 17.1 – Santos is a projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with the potential to hit for both average and power. He has a big righty swing with tons of potential to do damage. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/25/82/.261/.328/.462/7

103) Peter Heubeck LAD, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 101st overall, Heubeck is a skinny and projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with a low 90’s fastball, potentially plus curve, and developing change. The fastball should tick up as he matures and he throws the ball over the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.31/1.28/156 in 160 IP

104) Hunter Goodman COL, C, 22.6 – Selected 109th overall, Goodman has big power, smacking 21 homers in 56 games in the American Conference, but it comes with strikeout concerns and he also might not stick behind the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/52/.224/.303/.435/3

105) Alexis Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – Hernandez is the younger brother of last year’s top overall international prospect Cristian Hernandez. Alexis is a good prospect in his own right at a projectable 6’2”, 170 pounds with speed and developing power. I also think having his older brother going through the process one year ahead of him is a small advantage. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/18/71/.260/.325/.424/11

106) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 23.1 – Selected 81st overall, Hamel is a high spin rate pitcher with a low 90’s fastball and the potential for 3 quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). He had a 4.22 ERA in the Missouri Valley Conference, but his 1.11 WHIP and 136/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP looked much better. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.33/1.33/146 in 155 IP

107) Braylin Tavera BAL, OF, 17.1 – Tavera is 6’2”, 175 pounds with plus speed, a good feel to hit and developing power. His swing doesn’t look quite as smooth and/or beastly as other top international guys, so there is plenty of time to refine that. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/19/74/.252/.321/.429/14

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)