Posted on by Michael Halpern

Finding the Next A.J. Reed

If you did not acquire A.J. Reed before the hype train started to roll last season, you’re shit outta luck. After being largely ignored by the fantasy community in 2014-15, Reed is a highly sought after commodity in 2016. He was the first player taken in my fantasy league’s prospect draft this year. While it might be too late to get Reed, it is not too late to go search for the next A.J. Reed.

Reed was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft. He was a bat-first prospect who raked in college, and most importantly, raked right from the get-go in professional ball. Splitting time between Low-A and Single-A in 2014, Reed triple-slashed, .289/.375/.522, and hit 12 home runs in 68 games. That is the blueprint we are looking for. We want bat-first prospects who were not first-round picks, but exceeded expectations once reaching pro ball. There are three names who fit this criteria, and each could be had for almost nothing in most leagues.

Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B/OF – Calhoun was drafted in the 4th round of the 2015 draft. Playing for Yavapai Junior College last season, he triple-slashed a ridiculous, .432/.520/.952, and hit 31 home runs in 63 games. Considering the weaker talent in Junior College, it was fair to wonder how his production would translate against tougher competition. We don’t have to wonder anymore. Calhoun triple slashed, .316/.390/.519, and hit 11 homers across three levels of the minors. He actually got better as he rocketed through Los Angeles’ system, putting up a .943 OPS in High-A. He struck out only 38 times, and walked 35 times in 73 total games. He is currently a second baseman, but is extremely raw there. He will likely end up in the outfield. Overall, Calhoun has shown elite contact skills, to go along with his elite power. Target in all leagues, before it is too late.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – Bader was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft. Playing for the University of Florida, a big time Divison 1 program, he triple-slashed, .297/.393/.566, and hit 17 homers in 67 games. There were questions about whether his power would translate to wood bats. There aren’t questions anymore. Doing almost all of his damage in Single-A, Bader triple-slashed, .311/.368/.523, with 11 homers, and 17 steals in 61 games. St. Louis has recently drafted prospects who display plus bat speed and exit velocity, and Bader is no exception. He has good contact skills, above average power, and opportunistic speed. This is a potential 5-category producer down the line.

Austin Byler 1B, ARI – Byler is the player who most resembles A.J. Reed, and is also the most risky. He is a slow-footed first baseman, with lots of strikeouts, walks, and power. Byler was drafted in the 11th round of the 2015 draft. Playing for the University of Nevada-Reno, he triple-slashed, .328/.507/.652, and hit 14 homers in 56 games. Then, as a 22-year-old in rookie ball, he launched 15 homers in 66 games, putting up a 67/50 strikeout to walk ratio. Much like the questions Reed faced in 2014, Byler will need to prove he can consistently tap into his power in the upper levels of the minors. While Byler is the one most like Reed, he is also the one I am most cautious on, as he has not advanced above rookie ball. The power is undeniable, though, and he is worth a look in deeper leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Sleeper

Let the Houston Astros’ Derek Fisher be a lesson to us all. Search Engine Optimization is a real concern when naming your baby. If you want any of your child’s accomplishments to be found on the internet (if you can’t find it on Google, did it ever really happen?), your child better not share his/her name with a more popular person. Google’s Derek Fisher is a 5-time NBA champion, and current head coach of the New York Knicks. Conversely, the 3rd Google hit is a headline that reads, “Matt Barnes drove 95 miles to ‘beat the s—t’ out of Derek Fisher.” SEO giveth, and taketh away. Either way, Fisher’s uncontested reign atop Google’s rankings might be coming to an end, because 2016 will be the year the Astros’ Derek Fisher starts to climb his way up the ranks, and cements his status as a future fantasy star. Which makes now your last chance to buy at a good value.

Fisher was drafted by the Astros with the 37th overall pick in 2014. He only slid that far because he was coming off a down senior season, and was demanding a large signing bonus. While he hit only 17 homers in 155 career college games playing OF for the Virginia Cavaliers, the Cavs are known to have an extreme pitchers’ park. The 6’3’’, 207-pound Fisher had all the physical tools to eventually tap into his plus raw power, to go along with his already plus speed, and hitting ability. And that is exactly what happened for Fisher in 2015.

As a 21-year-old outfielder splitting time in Single-A (39 games) and High-A (84 games), Fisher triple-slashed .275/.364/.483, with 22 homers and 31 steals. He reinforced this breakout against tougher competition in the Arizona Fall League, triple-slashing .254/.397/.424, with 2 homers and 3 steals in 17 games. As his OBP numbers reveal, Fisher has a strong command of the strike zone, drawing a walk in 11.6% of his plate appearances last season. He is going to start 2016 in AA and should see AAA by the end of the season, with a 2017 ETA for the majors.

But it is not all rainbows, there are some risks here as well. The power breakout came with an increase in strikeouts, as he struck out 132 times in 123 games. Both the California League (where he did most of his damage last year) and the Arizona Fall League are notorious hitters’ leagues. While the Astros’ home ballpark, Minute Maid Park, favors hitters, there is a decent chance Fisher is traded this season to bolster an already strong Astros team. Underscoring this, it was reported that Fisher was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this offseason in the Ken Giles deal, before word spread that it was Mark Appel who would be on the move, not Fisher.

These are minor concerns in the inherently uncertain world of baseball prospects. If Fisher can come anywhere close to repeating his 20/30 season in AA/AAA this year, the buy window will be slammed shut. In his prime, Fisher projects to hit about .270, with 20-25 homers and 15-20 steals. He holds even more value in OBP/BB leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Matt Wieters, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper

Owning the Baltimore Orioles’ Matt Wieters in fantasy baseball last season, was like waiting for your perpetually late friend to finally show up for dinner. 15 minutes after they are already supposed to be there, you get a text saying they will be there in “5 min.” 45 minutes later, they finally show up. Just take a look at Wieters’ Rotoworld updates prior to finally making his 2015 debut:

December 21, 2014 – “Agent Scott Boras has said that his client, Matt Wieters (elbow), will be ready to play on Opening Day … as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.”

February 28, 2015 – “Everything is trending toward the 28-year-old being ready for Opening Day.”

March 20, 2015 – “Wieters is dealing with some tendinitis in his surgically-repaired right elbow. The Orioles aren’t viewing it as a setback and are still hopeful of him being ready for Opening Day.”

March 21, 2015 – “The Orioles are tentatively targeting a return on April 11, citing this as a precautionary measure rather than a setback in his recovery.”

April 8, 2015 – “The Orioles are going to continue to play it safe with their star catcher, who probably won’t be ready until sometime in early May.”

May 1, 2015 – “A return in late May or early June for Matt Wieters (elbow) ‘seems reasonable.’”

May 10, 2015 – “Wieters continues to rehab in extended spring training and is on track to rejoin the Orioles at some point in June.”

June 5, 2015 – “Wieters will make his season debut on Friday after making his way back from Tommy John surgery.”

You see what I mean? Even after he made his debut, Wieters still dealt with lingering arm soreness all season, and needed to be heavily rested. He never allowed himself to properly heal from his torn UCL, and his playing time and production took a hit as a result. He played in only 75 games, triple-slashing .267/.319/.422, and hitting 8 homers.

The silver lining in all of this, is that his injury-ravaged 2015 makes him an ideal fantasy sleeper for 2016. With a full offseason of rest, and almost two years removed from the surgery, Wieters figures to be fully healthy this upcoming year. His 2015 numbers actually look pretty good considering the circumstances, and were not far off from his career averages. Wieters was also enjoying a strong start to the 2014 season before tearing his UCL, hitting .308/.339/.500, with 5 homers in 104 at-bats. In the three years prior to the injury, he hit 22, 23, and 22 homers, respectively.

All signs point to the 29-year-old Wieters having a bounce back season in 2016. On top of that, he still has the kind of raw talent and ability (he was ranked the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball in 2009), that a late career breakout is not out of the question. For 2016, I will give Wieters the projection of 62/21/75/.270/0, and should easily finish as a top 10 fantasy catcher.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Jimmy Nelson, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper

Jimmy Nelson was labeled a fantasy “breakout” candidate last year. He did not breakout. Now he gets downgraded to the less dignified “sleeper” label. I’m cutthroat like that. He must pay for his mediocrity! Which is exactly how he pitched last year. Nelson finished the 2015 season for the Milwaukee Brewers with a 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 148 K’s in 177.1 IP. At certain points during the year, he looked like a top 15 fantasy starter. At others, he looked unrosterable. It was that inconsistency which makes him an intriguing fantasy sleeper for 2016, because nobody wants someone who is consistently mediocre. You hear that kids! Be awesome, or be awful. People will think you are full of potential!

Nelson does have real potential though. He throws a 93-94 MPH fastball, a nasty slider, and a knuckle curveball that he added to his arsenal prior to last season. The knuckle curve graded out as an average pitch in his first year of using it. With continued refinement, it can become a deadly weapon combined with his big fastball and plus slider.

Nelson has also been a pillar of health throughout his entire professional career. He pitched 146 innings in 2011, 127.1 innings in 2012, 152.1 innings in 2013, 180.1 innings in 2014, and 177.1 innings in 2015. His 6’6’’, 243-pound build is tailor made to be an innings eating, workhorse starter. The strikeout potential is there too. Nelson struck out 549 batters in 563.1 IP in his minor league career. In 2014, he struck out 114 batters in 111 IP while pitching in the PCL, a league that is death on pitchers. In his first 256.2 IP in the majors, he struck out a respectable 213 batters.

Nelson will still have to pitch in the launching pad that is Miller Park, which does cap his upside a bit. For 2016, I will give Nelson the projection of 3.51/1.25/178 in 192 IP. The 26-year-old holds even more value in dynasty/keeper leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper

Alan Henson. Alen Henson. Alan Hanson … ALEN HANSON! You are excused if you are never able to spell his name quite right. I am pretty sure his name is meant as one of those mental twister games. Google has completely given up on me. They do not even ask me, “did you mean Alen Hanson,” anymore, they just know what I meant. But you are not excused for forgetting about Hanson in your upcoming prospect, or keeper league drafts.

Hanson broke out for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012, as a 19-year-old in Single-A. He triple-slashed, .309/.381/.528, with 16 homers and 35 steals. MLB.com ranked him the 54th best prospect in baseball the following season. But Hanson’s numbers have been far less eye-popping the last three years, as he continued to climb the minor league ladder. His position has also been downgraded from SS, to 2B. He fell in MLB.com’s prospect rankings to #67 in 2014, and then #92 in 2015. Which makes now the perfect time to buy.

The opportunity is there for Hanson to secure the starting 2B job right out of the gate. The Pirates starting 2B for the last six years, Neil Walker, was traded to the New York Mets earlier this month. Jung Ho Kang’s availability for the start of next season is uncertain, as he is still recovering from surgery, after tearing his meniscus and breaking his tibia last season. This leaves Josh Harrison to play 3B, Jordy Mercer to play SS, and Hanson to play 2B to begin the 2016 season.

Even when Kang returns, there will be plenty of at-bats to go around. Last season, Kang played 77 games at 3B and 60 games at SS. Harrison played 72 games at 3B, 37 games at 2B, and 22 games in the OF. In the minors, Hanson played 111 games at 2B and 7 games at 3B. He also played 370 games at SS in his minor league career. In other words, the Pirates will find ways to keep Hanson in the line-up if he is playing well. There is even a small chance he plays enough at SS, or 3B, to gain eligibility there during the season. (Update: Despite a strong Spring, Pittsburgh decided to send Hanson back down to the minors for more seasoning.)

So, what kind of numbers can we expect from Hanson in 2016 and beyond? His huge 2012 season shows his considerable potential and raw talent. Taking a deeper look at those “down” seasons from 2013-2015, things really don’t look that bad. His walk and strikeout rates remained relatively stable (about 7% and 17%, respectively), even as his competition improved each year. He has been younger than his competition at every level. He also played in leagues, and home ballparks, that favor the pitcher. Last season was his best in terms of steals, as he stole 35 bases at Triple-A, being caught only 12 times.

At his peak, all of this points to a player who projects to hit about .280, with 12-14 homers and 25 steals. Easily a top 10 2B option for fantasy. I would not expect Hanson to reach those lofty goals in 2016, but if he even comes close, nobody will forget how to spell his name again.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com