Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 4

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 4:

Byron Buxton MIN, OF – Turned it on since getting demoted to Triple-A, seeing his OPS jump .111 points … from .497 to .608. Oof. I oddly see this as a positive, though. He wasn’t simply overmatched by MLB pitching. There is something fundamentally wrong with his swing right now, and it should be correctable.

Ozzie Albies/Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – Both of Atlanta’s shortstops of the future are moving on up, Albies to Triple-A and Swanson to Double-A. Because I’m good at pattern recognition, it looks like Albies will get the first shot to win the SS job at the Major League level.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – Went deep in back-to-back-to-back games this week. It inspired me to write a Harrison Bader, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout post last Friday after the first 2 homers, and Bader and his former coach both liked the article on Twitter! He is now slashing .345/.402/.560, with 5 homers, and 3 steals in 21 games at Double-A. He might want to think about changing his name to Harrison Gooder, because you know, branding and everything.

Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Starting to really heat up, and after launching 3 dingers this week, his season line stands at .253/.340/.529, with 6 homers, and a 36/11 K/BB. Expect more homers, strikeouts, and walks for about the next, say, 15 years or so.

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Struck out 18 batters and gave up no earned runs over 11 IP in his two starts this week. He walked only 1 in his first start, and then 5 in his second start, so the control is still spotty.

Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Somebody get this man some more hype! I tried to all off season, but it seems like it has barely taken. He has only thrown up a pitching line of 0.78/1.09/32 in 23 IP at Double-A so far, and he hasn’t given up more than a single earned run in any of his 5 starts. I’m not sure if Milwaukee will want to call him up this season, but in Dynasty Leagues, he is a must own.

Phil Bickford SF, RHP – The 18th overall pick of the 2015 draft, Bickford has been nothing short of a strikeout machine these last two years. He had an insane 17.24 K/9 in 86.2 IP in JuCo in 2015, and has now struck out 33 batters in 20.2 IP this year at Single-A. He has excellent control, is still only 20 years old, and has prototypical starter size at 6’4’’, 200 pounds. He doesn’t have the huge fastball, but color me intrigued.

Lucas Sims ATL, RHP – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BB and 11 K in his start this week at Triple-A. He leads all of MiLB with 42 K’s, and is starting to regain some of that prospect shine. He is an underrated stash option in redraft leagues too.

Cody Reed CIN, LHP – 12 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BB and 11 K at Triple-A in his first two starts since returning from a cut finger. With Cincinnati’s shaky rotation, he is another underrated stash option in redraft leagues.

Orlando Arcia MIL, SS – Got his legs going this week, stealing his first 4 bags of the season, and also tacked on his 2nd and 3rd homer. He is triple-slashing .308/.341/.462 at Triple-A, and his 2015 breakout was clearly for real.

Jorge Mateo NYY, SS – Has been quietly putting up a very strong season at High-A, slashing .326/.392/.500, with 2 homers, and 7 steals in 22 games. His K% is up, and he has been caught stealing 5 times, so there are a few things to keep an eye on, as well.

Jesse Winker CIN, OF – Triple-A hasn’t slowed Winker down at all, and he continues to have one of the most advanced plate approaches of anyone in the minors. He smacked his first 2 homers of the season this week, and is now slashing .316/.404/.434 with a 11/12 K/BB in 20 games.

Jose Peraza CIN, 2B/SS/OF – Feet don’t fail me now. Peraza has only 2 steals and has been caught 4 times in his first 21 games at Triple-A this season. Considering basically all of his value comes from his speed, this is not exactly a great sign.

David Dahl COL, OF – Just keeps smoking the ball, hitting 2 more homers this week. He now has 8 homers, 8 steals, and a 1.026 OPS on the season. If he keeps hitting bombs, we might have to start calling him Double D.

Ryan McMahon COL, 3B – Has gone ice cold this week, and is now slashing .192/.271/.274, with no homers, and a 28/8 K/BB in 21 games at Double-A. Sorry Colorado, you can’t have all the breakouts.

Brett Phillips MIL, OF – I think it is time to slap Phillips with the slow starter label. He seemed like a hot starter early on, but his K’s were way up and there wasn’t much power, so I held off on tooting his horn. The singles have started to dry up now, and his season line now stands at .257/.360/.365, with only 1 homer, and 1 steal. He is still walking, but I’m starting to think the power/speed combo may be more of the moderate variety.

Dominic Smith NYM, 1B/Franklin Barreto OAK, SS/Nick Williams PHI, OF – Three really slow starters who have picked it up this week. None of their season lines are anything to write home about, but we can take them off the slow start watch list.

Matt Chapman OAK, 3B – The power is real. Crushed 3 more dingers this week (7 total), which brings his OPS up to .987 in a pitcher’s park at Double-A.

Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – Another Cal League slugger whose power is translating to Double-A, as O’Neill hit 2 more homers in back-to-back games this week. That brings his total up to 6, and he has a .961 OPS on the season. I’ve been hyping him to death for months now, so you know the deal.

Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – .294/.378/.718, with 8 homers, and 4 steals in 21 games at High-A. Since I hyped him in my week 1 rundown, he has just kept hitting.

Mike Soroka ATL, RHP – The 18-year-old Soroka has been brilliant in his full season pro debut at Single-A, dominating hitters to the tune of 1.33/0.89/29 in 27 IP. He has a first round pedigree and is very young for his level. There is not a negative to be found here.

Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – Was looking good to start the year until he ran into the Jupiter Hammerheads this week, and the Jupiter Hammerheads lived up to their awesome team name by touching Jay up for 10 hits, 5 earned runs, and no strikeouts in 4.1 IP. Looks like he still has some kinks to work out with his conversion from reliever to starter. Jupiter Hammerheads … I just wanted to say it one more time.

Domingo Acevedo NYY, RHP – The 22-year-old Acevedo has just been destroying Single-A, with a line of 1.91/0.81/32 in 28.1 IP. He relies heavily on his big fastball, so it is tough to get too excited until we see him against tougher competition, as much as I would like to as a Yankees fan.

Hunter Dozier KC, 3B/OF – Put another 2 homers on the board for the hot hitting, former 8th overall pick in the draft. He is slashing .307/.409/.640, with 6 homers, and 4 steals in 21 games at Double-A. At 24, he is old for the level, but the talent is still there and maybe he is just a late bloomer.

Christin Stewart DET, OF – The 34th overall pick of the 2015 draft, Stewart is powering up at High-A this year, hitting 8 homers in 24 games. He jacked 15 homers in the SEC last year, and then 10 more once reaching pro ball. He is striking out too much, and the batting average is low, but the power is too much to ignore at this point.

Ryan Cordell TEX, OF/Jordan Patterson COL, OF/Peter O’Brien ARI, 1B/OF – Three older prospects that I liked very early on in the off season, but convinced myself they were destined to be bench players. They are killing it in the early going, though, and who the fuck am I to say they are destined to the bench? If you like rooting for the underdog, pick these guys up and give em a shot.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Harrison Bader, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Harrison Bader first caught my eye when I went searching for the next A.J. Reed way back in January. Then, I ranked him 51st overall in my Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects post in February. Finally, I smacked the “sleeper” label on him, ranking him 7th in my Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers article in early April. But now, he has graduated to an entirely new level. He is officially being promoted to a full blown breakout. And with that, comes even more hype.

The St. Louis Cardinals pushed the 21-year-old Bader, OF, all the way to Double-A to start the 2016 season. They likely saw what I saw, that Bader can flat out hit. He raked at the University of Florida last year, slashing .297/.393/.566, with 17 homers, and 8 steals in 67 games, and then raked immediately upon reaching pro ball, slashing .311/.368/.523, with 11 homers, and 17 steals in 61 games splitting time between Low-A and Single-A. Even with those eye popping numbers, it would have been reasonable to think he would struggle a bit in his first taste of Double-A. He hasn’t. After blasting homers in back-to-back games, Bader’s season line stands at .342/.398/.539, with 4 homers, and 2 steals in 19 games. While his highly drafted contemporaries from the 2015 draft, Andrew Benintendi (7th overall) and Ian Happ (9th overall), have been putting up cute numbers in High-A, Bader (100th overall) is doing the same thing in a grown man’s league.

Bader’s excellent start is not without a red flag or two. He has struck out 22 times and walked only 4 times. While he has hit 4 homers, he has only 3 other extra base hits. His BABIP sits at .440.  In other words, his batting average is due to drop precipitously. He has also been caught stealing 5 times. For a guy who is not known as a burner, and more of an opportunistic base stealer, his poor stolen base percentage exposes his lack of true stolen base upside once he reaches the majors.

The positives still far outweigh the negatives. Leave it to St. Louis to unearth another underrated gem. It is obvious they value bat speed and exit velocity to the utmost degree, and Bader possesses both in spades. Maybe the rest of the league will catch up one day. If you were waiting to see more from Bader before picking him up, consider his dominance at Double-A your more. He is a future 5-category producer with more power than speed, and should break into the majors sometime in 2017.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 3

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 3:

Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – And so it begins. Rodgers is dominating Single-A, triple-slashing .313/.380/.594, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in 16 games. The bandwagon is not going to be big enough to hold everyone if he keeps this up.

Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – I gave you a Tyler O’Neill Sleeper post in February, and he has checked every box and then some at Double-A this season. He is triple-slashing .311/.386/.557 with 4 homers in 16 games. His K% is down a bit and his BB% is way up. I’d be thinking about buying right about now.

Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – Triple-slashing .350/.474/.483, with 13 steals, and no homers in 17 games at High-A. I mean, for $63 million you would think the guy can hit at least one homer already 🙂

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – .333/.390/.623, with 4 steals, and no homers in 17 games at High-A. What are with these Red Sox prospects destroying High-A but not hitting a single homer? More power, please.

Victor Robles WASH, OF – Just keeps raking. Assuming he is owned in all dynasty leagues, don’t sell unless you are getting a premium return. And if he is not owned, pick him up already!

Ian Happ CHC, 2B/OF – The Cubs seriously don’t need any more stud prospects, but Gee Wilikers, they have one. Happ is crushing High-A with a slash line of .313/.450/.547, to go along with 3 homers and 3 steals in 18 games. Who the fuck knows where he is going to fit in on Chicago’s overstuffed roster? That’s right, I just dropped a “Gee Wilikers” and “fuck” in the same paragraph. I’m crazy like that!

Lucas Giolito WASH, RHP ­– Control has been choppy in the early going as he builds his pitch count up (8 BB in 11.2 IP). I would expect to see Giolito in the majors at some point this season, but the Nats are going to treat him with kid gloves all year.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP – Bounced back from his shaky 2nd start by going 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, and 8 K in his start this week. He is destroying the PCL as a 19-year-old. It doesn’t get much more impressive than this.

Jose Berrios MIN, RHP ­– It took him a couple of starts to get that signature command and control going, but it’s back, as he went 7 shutout innings, striking out 7, and walking only 1 in his last start. Expect continued dominance until he gets called up.

Blake Snell TB, LHP – If you needed any more reassurance that Snell is a stud, he delivered a gem in his Major League debut at Yankee Stadium (5 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 6 K). He has a 13.2 K/9 in Triple-A this season as well.

Aaron Blair ATL, RHP – If you needed any more reassurance that Blair is an uninspiring fantasy prospect, he delivered a dud in his Major League debut at Turner Field (5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BB, 1 K). To his credit, he was dominating Triple-A before the spot start (19 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 5 BB, 22K).

John Lamb CIN, LHP – Has a 19.06 ERA in his first two rehab starts coming back from off-season back surgery. Yes, you read that right. 19.06 ERA! He will have to pitch much better than this before Cincinnati gives him his rotation spot back.

Josh Bell PIT, 1B – Hello there, power stroke. Nice of you to show up. Bell’s 3 homers this year is already almost halfway to the total number of homers he hit all of last season. Combine that with his already strong contact skills, and the arrow is pointing up.

Hunter Renfroe SD, OF – Finally got it going in a big way this week, hitting his first four homers and stealing his first bag of the season. He is knocking on the door of the majors, and is about as exciting as a Padres hitting prospect gets these days.

Javier Guerra SD, SS – I didn’t fully believe in the power he displayed last season, but smashing 3 homers in his first 16 games at High-A is proving it might be for real. It has come with an increase in strikeouts, though, and he still does not have much speed. Guerra isn’t my favorite prospect, but the guy has talent.

Orlando Arcia MIL, SS – The 21-year-old Arcia is holding his own in Triple-A to begin the year, hitting .295, with one homer, and an 8/5 K/BB in 16 games. He hasn’t stolen a base yet, but the hit tool is more important at this point anyway.

Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Hitting .327 and has swiped five bags in his first 11 games of the season at Triple-A. The speed looks great, but he has struck out 16 times and walked only twice, so I’m expecting that average to come down pretty quickly.

Francis Martes HOU, RHP – Has been struggling in the early going at Double-A (10.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 8 BB, 9K). It seems his meteoric rise through the minors might be hitting a temporary roadblock.

Edwin Diaz SEA, RHP – Since I told you to pick up Diaz in my week 1 rundown, he has continued his assault on Double-A, and his season line now stands at 2.45/0.86/32 with only 3 walks in 22 IP.

Justus Sheffield CLE, LHP – The 19-year-old Sheffield has been excellent in his first 4 starts at High-A, putting up a pitching of 2.45/1.09/18 in 18.1 IP. The control hasn’t been great, but he walked only one batter in his last start.

Jameson Taillon PIT, RHP – Continues to mow down Triple-A hitters (16 IP, 3 ER, 13 Hits, 0 BB, 16 K) and is proving his arm injuries are behind him.

James Kaprielian NYY, RHP – Another start, another gem. Struck out 9 batters in 6 IP.

Kohl Stewart MIN, RHP – The 4th overall pick of the 2013 draft, Stewart might finally be adding some strikeouts to his profile. His K/9 is way up this year to 10.9, and his pitching line stands at 2.60/0.81/21 in 17.1 IP at High-A.

Lucas Sims ATL, RHP – Sporting a ridiculous 14.2 K/9 in 19.2 IP. Problem is, the walk rate is just as ridiculous (6.4 BB/9), and if he can’t get his control, um, under control, he might be destined for the bullpen.

Yusniel Diaz LAD, OF – The Dodgers paid $31 million to get Diaz this off season, and he is starting to show why. The 19-year-old has gone nuclear this week at High-A, and his season line now stands at .267/.314/.600, with 3 homers, and 2 steals in 12 games. He wasn’t known as a big power hitter in Cuba, but if the power is developing, he can be one exciting fantasy prospect.

Ryan O’Hearn KC, 1B/OF – An 8th round pick in the 2014 draft, O’Hearn has done nothing but rake in the minors. He jacked 27 homers last season between Single-A and High-A, and is off to a blazing start this season, slashing .380/.430/.718 with 6 homers in 18 games at High-A. He has a sweet lefty swing with power to all fields. He strikes out too much, and he doesn’t really have a position, but if you are looking for a dirt cheap power prospect to take a shot on, O’Hearn should certainly have your attention.

Josh Ockimey BOS, 1B – Ockimey is another dirt cheap power hitting 1B you should have your eye on. A 5th round pick in the 2014 draft, the 20-year-old Ockimey has already blasted 5 homers in his first 16 games at Single-A. He is your prototypical power/strikeouts/walks 1st baseman.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Slow Starters

We all want our prospects to put up video game numbers (unless you suck at video games), as they rip through the minors en route to Trevor Storying the big leagues. That is the dream. The reality is many times much different. It brings me no pleasure to write this, but here are the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Slow Starters:

Derek Fisher HOU, OF – First, he gets fired as the New York Knicks head coach, and now, he is off to a slow start in his first taste of Double-A (.213/.302/.383). Derek Fisher can’t catch a break. The good news is that he has a 9/6 K/BB in 12 games, and jacked his 2nd homer of the season last night. He struck out 132 times in 123 games between Single-A and High-A last season, so I’m actually more encouraged by this “slow” start than I am discouraged. I would hold in all leagues, or try to buy low.

Tim Anderson CHW, SS – Triple-slashing .182/.182/.227 with a 13/0 K/BB in his first 10 games at Triple-A. He was coming off a wrist injury to start the season, so we are a long way off from panicking.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP ­– I covered Fulmer’s slow start in my week 1 and 2 prospect rundowns because it was so spectacularly bad. His 3rd start was a step in the right direction (5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BB, 5 K), but his season line still stands at 8.53/1.74/8 in 12.2 IP. Not pretty.

Gary Sanchez NYY, C – After dominating the Arizona Fall League, Sanchez is off to a slow start at Triple-A, slashing .175/.250/.450 with 2 homers in 10 games. The power numbers are there, and his 8/3 K/BB is more or less in line with his career numbers, so I would expect the singles to start dropping at a normal rate too.

Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B – Williiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! You were supposed to be the next A.J. Reed! But even A.J. Reed didn’t start his first full minor league season in Double-A. The Dodgers were aggressive with the 21-year-old Calhoun, and he has not responded to the tune of .216/.245/.255 with no homers in 13 games. His BABIP sits at .268, so there is probably some bad luck at play, but his .043 ISO is not exactly encouraging either. The sample still isn’t large enough to make any determinations, but it would be nice to see him get it going a little bit.

Raimel Tapia COL, OF – It seems like all of Colorado’s prospects have gotten off to hot starts (Story, Dahl, Wall), but now we get to one who hasn’t. Tapia is slashing .212/.311/.250 with an 8/8 K/BB in 13 games at Double-A. Tapia is a streaky hitter, and considering the excellent K/BB, I’m expecting a hot streak any minute now.

Franklin Barreto OAK, SS – Like a few others on this list, Barreto has hit the Double-A roadblock. The 20-year-old Barreto is slashing a dismal .152/.188/.239 with a 15/2 K/BB in 12 games. He does have 1 homer and 3 steals, but he has looked seriously overmatched so far.

Nick Williams PHI, OF – Now we come to a few players that I was down on in the preseason. Williams has slashed .214/.250/.286 with no homers in 12 games in his first taste of Triple-A. If you liked him before the season, this shouldn’t change your opinion too much, but if you didn’t, well, you are still down on him.

Rafael Devers BOS, 3B – I was lower on Devers than most due to his distance from the majors and the considerable development he still had left to fully tap into that raw potential. The 19-year-old Devers has triple-slashed .135/.250/.250 with 1 homer in 14 games at High-A so far. This changes nothing about his future MLB potential, but it just highlights that he still has a long way to go.

Gleybor Torres CHC, SS – Triple-slashing .113/.266/.226, with 1 homer, and 1 steal in 14 games at High-A. Even with the massive hype he was getting this offseason, I was still down on him because of the lack of big power or speed.

Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – 7.84/2.03/8 in 10.1 IP at High-A. It is really just one bad start that has demolished his season line, so I wouldn’t worry at all.

Jacob Nottingham MIL, C – .150/.227/.325 with 2 homers in 12 games at Double-A. The power looks good (.189 ISO) and the K and BB rates are in line with his career numbers, so once his .115 BABIP regresses, he should be fine.

Matt Olson OAK, 1B – Olson’s power numbers took a hit last season at Double-A after leaving the comfy confines of the Cal League, so it would have been nice to see the power fully return in the hitter friendly PCL, but it was not to be to start the year. He has slashed .143/.311/.286 with 1 homer in his first 12 games at Triple-A. Considering the large dimensions of Oakland’s home ballpark, and that he plays a deep position, I’m starting to wonder how high his fantasy potential really is.

Dominic Smith NYM, 1B – Smith wasn’t hitting homers these past few seasons, but his elite contact skills made him an intriguing fantasy prospect. Well, now he isn’t hitting homers or making contact. The 20-year-old Smith is slashing .196/.226/.353, with 1 homer, and a 13/2 K/BB in 12 games at Double-A. He is much younger than his competition, and the raw talent is still huge, so patience is the name of the game here.

Jake Thompson PHI, RHP – 5.14/1.57/12 in 14 IP at Triple-A. I wasn’t a huge fan to begin the year, and I’m still not a fan.

Braden Shipley ARI, RHP – The PCL has done Shipley no favors to start the year, as his pitching line stands at 5.71/1.44/7 in 17.1 IP. This coming off a season where he struck out only 118 batters in 156.2 IP at Double-A. In fantasy, where K’s mean almost everything, I would be jumping off this bandwagon if you didn’t already last season.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 2

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the week 2 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown:

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Control issues? What control issues? Glasnow struck out 9 batters and walked none over 5 IP in his 2nd start of the season. This obviously doesn’t mean he is Greg Maddux now, but it’s a start.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP – After dominating in his season debut at Triple-A (5 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BB, 9K), Urias had a rocky 2nd outing (5 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 3K). He gave up 2 homers, but one was a PCL, windblown cheapie, and he finished strong by retiring 9 of the last 11 batters he faced. His fastball reached 96 MPH, and he relied on a hard slider that acted like a cutter at times as his breaking pitch. His changeup wasn’t working for him at all.

A.J. Reed HOU, 1B – Reed finally got on the board this week launching his first 2 homers at Triple-A. He has also struck out 11 times in 9 games, and is hitting .237. Tyler White has thrown a monkey wrench in Reed’s quick ascent to the majors, but spending a little extra time at Triple-A won’t hurt him anyway.

Brad Zimmer CLE, OF – Zimmer began to fill up the box score this week as well, hitting his first 2 homers and stealing his first 2 bases at Double-A. Like Reed, it has come with strikeouts (13 K’s in 9 GP) and a low average (.222).

Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – More power and strikeouts. Bradley knocked his first 2 dingers at High-A, and has struck out 15 times in 9 games.

Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Hader carried his strong Spring Training performance into the regular season, as he has dominated Double-A hitters to begin the year (9 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BB, 12 K in 2 GS). He doesn’t have much left to prove at the Double-A level at this point.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – With the Rangers signing Adrian Beltre to a 2-year contract extension, the prospect crunch got even tighter in Texas. Gallo is destroying Triple-A in the early going, slashing .333/.432/.778 with 4 homers in 10 games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the top trade chip at the deadline this season.

Trea Turner WASH, SS – Hitting .424, with 1 homer, and 4 steals in his first 9 games at Triple-A this year. Meanwhile, Danny Espinoza and his .161 AVG is doing one of the best prospect blocking jobs I have even seen, and I lived through the Stephen Drew fiasco in New York.

Alex Bregman HOU, SS – Double-A hasn’t slowed Bregman down at all, as he is completely tearing the level up to the tune of .400/.467/.800, with 5 homers, 1 steal, and only 3 K’s in 10 games. The only question left is where is he going to play in Houston’s stacked infield?

Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – Triple-slashing .341/.408/.477, with 6 doubles (no homers), and 3 steals in 11 games at High-A. No homers? High-A? Step your game up guy who was picked before Bregman.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Fulmer’s second start (5 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BB, 3 K) did not do much to quell the concerns after his horrible season debut. It is still very early, and he is likely just working out some early season kinks, but it is definitely something to watch.

Sean Manaea OAK, LHP – The hype has started to roll for Manaea, and for good reason, as the 24-year-old has struck out 17 batters and walked only 2 in 12 IP at Triple-A. Health is still the biggest concern here, as the talent has never been an issue.

Dillon Tate TEX, RHP – Followed up his strong season debut by striking out 10 batters in 6 IP in his 2nd start at Single-A. I think it is time to see him against tougher competition.

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – It might be time to start getting excited. Mondesi built on his strong opening week at Double-A with an equally impressive week 2. His season line now stands at .314/.400/.686, with 3 jacks, 6 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 9 games. I would say the time is now to buy, but it might already be too late.

David Dahl COL, OF – The power explosion has arrived! Dahl has smashed 5 homers and is slugging .609, to go along with 3 steals, in 11 games at Double-A. That power/speed combo is sure going to look nice at Coors.

Forrest Wall COL, 2B – Wall is off to a hot start at High-A, triple-slashing .381/.447/.571, with 1 homer, and 3 steals in 9 games. I thought I was already very high on all of Colorado’s prospects, but man, maybe I should have been even higher on them.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – One of my favorite sleepers heading into 2016, Bader has responded to St. Louis pushing him to Double-A to open the season (unlike someone else I know, cough-Willie Calhoun-cough). He is triple-slashing .350/.366/.516, with 1 homer, and 1 steal in 9 games. He has also struck out 13 times and walked only once, so it is not all roses.

Grant Holmes LAD, RHP – After tiring down the stretch last season in August and September, it is nice to see Holmes off to a strong start this year at High-A (11 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BB, 12 K in 2 GS). His ETA is a few years down the road, but the strikeout potential is worth the wait.

Willson Contreras CHC, C – Contreras is proving his 2015 breakout is for real, as he hasn’t missed a beat at Triple-A this season. He is hitting .429, with 3 K’s, and 2 BB’s in 9 games. The only thing left for him to do is to add some more home run power.

Trey Mancini BAL, 1B – Another player who is making his 2015 breakout stand up. Mancini has already launched 5 homers in 10 games at Double-A, and has maintained a .324 AVG while doing so.

Jameson Taillon PIT, RHP – Taillon exceeded all expectations in his first start since 2013, putting up a line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BB, and 6 K at Triple-A. His fastball was hitting 94 MPH. At this rate, the 24-year-old Taillon might jump back ahead of Glasnow if a rotation spot opens up in Pittsburgh.

Brent Honeywell TB, RHP – Honeywell has been lights out to start the season at High-A, putting up a line of 0.50/0.72/19 in 18 IP. It is nice to see the K’s tick up after they took a dip when he was promoted to High-A in 2015.

Clint Frazier CLE, OF – In my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post, I said Frazier is a breakout waiting to happen, and well, it might be happening. He is slashing .325/.386/.575, with 2 homers, and 1 steal in 9 games at Double-A. The sky is the limit for this kid.

Renato Nunez OAK, 3B – Nunez homered in back to back games, and has now put up an .890 OPS in his first 9 games at Triple-A. And oh yea, Nunez was the other guy I called a breakout waiting to happen in my top 100 prospects post.

Jorge Alfaro PHI, C – Triple-slashing .500/.526/.750 and hit 1 homer in 8 games at Double-A. The talent has always been there, it was just a matter of putting it together. He is putting it together.

Michael Fulmer DET, RHP – 11 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BB, and 14 K’s in 2 GS at Triple-A. The 2015 breakout was for real.

Matt Chapman OAK, 3B – Smashed 2 homers yesterday, and now has 3 homers and a .953 OPS in 10 games at Double-A. He hit 23 homers in only 80 games last season in the Cal League, so seeing the power show up in a less hitter friendly environment is good to see.

James Kaprielian NYY, RHP – The buzz is starting to build around last year’s 16th overall pick in the draft. Kappy (as Girardi is sure to call him, if he hasn’t already) followed up his terrific season debut (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BB, 9 K) with a 1 hitter in 7 IP in his 2nd outing. His season line stands at 0.75/0.50/13 in 12 IP and he is drawing rave reviews from everyone that sees him. He is currently at High-A, but expect him to move fast through the Yankees system.

Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – Wrote a Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout post. He tacked on another homer since that post, as well.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Travis Demeritte, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

Travis Demeritte is the Minor League version of Trevor Story. Like Story, he has been red hot to start the season, triple-slashing .435/.481/1.304, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in his first 6 games at High-A. Like Story, he absolutely crushes the ball when he makes contact, but has a history of struggling to make contact in the first place. And most importantly, like Story, he has a last name that is low hanging fruit for people that like to make corny puns. Don’t worry, I’ll spare you … this time. So why isn’t everyone hyping Demeritte to death like they are Story? Well, probably because nobody plays in a MiLB Fantasy League. But we do play in Dynasty Leagues, and now is the time to jump on the Demeritte bandwagon.

The Texas Rangers selected Demeritte, 2B, out of high school with the 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He showed his considerable talent right off the bat, putting up an .856 OPS, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 39 Rookie ball games. It also came with a 28% K%. He then cranked up the power and strikeouts even more in 2014 at Single-A, jacking 25 homers with a 36.7% K%. Even with his considerable strikeout issues, the power surge made Demeritte an interesting sleeper candidate going into 2015. It turned out he would have bigger problems than strikeouts to deal with.

After displaying that same power/strikeout profile in the first 48 games of 2015, Demeritte got popped for taking the banned substance furosemide, a known masking agent for other drugs, and was suspended for 80 games. Coming into 2016, it was fair to wonder how much of that power was natural, and how much was drug induced. But as you know from my opener, we don’t have to wonder anymore, as the power is very real (or he found a better masking agent). He is still striking out 29.6% of the time, but if Story has taught us anything, it is that players with strikeout issues can succeed if they smack the crap outta the ball when they do make contact, and Demeritte does just that.

I give myself 3 demerits for not being higher on Demeritte this preseason (sorry, I couldn’t resist!), but any questions I had coming into this year have been answered. He is a boom or bust power hitting middle infielder with opportunistic speed. If you don’t mind some strikeout risk with your prospects, Demeritte is certainly one to jump on before word of his scorching start gets out.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 1

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues over the past week, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 week 1 fantasy baseball Minor League prospect rundown:

Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – Triple-slashing, .308/.471/.462, with 4 BBs, 1 K and 4 steals in his first 18 PA at High-A. As a lifelong Yankees fan, I still get a sick feeling in my stomach whenever I see his name. He should be ours!

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Did Tyler Glasnow things in his season debut at Triple-A (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks). It’s only a matter of time before there is an opening for him in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – Picked up right where he left off last season, putting up a .938 OPS in his first 4 games at High-A. He could have easily started the year at Double-A like many of the other top college hitters from the 2015 class, so I would expect Benintendi to continue to put up impressive numbers until he gets his first real challenge at Double-A.

Jose Berrios MIN, RHP – Struck out 9 batters in 5 IP in his season debut at Triple-A. He walked 4 as well, but considering his past history of excellent control and command, I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. His numbers should look ridiculous this year against overmatched minor league hitters. He is MLB ready.

J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – Off to a slow start at Double-A, slashing .235/.316/.235, with 4 Ks and 2 BBs in 4 games played. Obviously a 4 game sample is meaningless, but I’m including him in the rundown just as a reminder that his value in real life is higher than fantasy.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Is now definitely being groomed to replace Adrian Beltre at 3B in 2017. He is off to strong start at Triple-A, putting up a 1.317 OPS in his first 4 games, which is nice to see after he struggled there last season (.739 OPS in 53 games).

Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – Rodgers is the forgotten Colorado SS of the future (hello Trevor Story), but while the present belongs to Story, the future may very well still belong to Rodgers. The uber-talented Rodgers has looked good in his first taste of full season pro ball, slashing .333/.375/.600 and hitting one homer in 16 PA.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Fulmer got absolutely destroyed in his season debut at Double-A, giving up 5 ERs in 2.2 IP, walking 4, and striking out none. He worked the entire game from the stretch, which is something pitchers usually do when they are trying to simplify their mechanics. It is only one start, but this is definitely something to keep your eye on.

Aaron Judge NYY, OF – After struggling with strikeouts at Triple-A last season, it would have been nice for Judge to get off to a better start this year, but it was not to be. He struck out 5 times and walked once in his first 3 games. It is too early to judge Judge (and you thought bad “Story” puns were all you had to worry about, hah!), but improving his strikeout rate will be something to watch for the rest of the season.

Victor Robles WASH, OF – He is dominating full season pro ball exactly like he dominated Rookie ball and Low-A. This kid is looking like a good bet to be the next big thing.

Anderson Espinoza BOS, RHP – 5.0 IP, 0 ERs, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, and 4 Ks in his first start at Single-A this season. The pitching version of Robles. These guys are the not too distant future.

Dillon Tate TEX, RHP – 4.2 IP, 0 ERs, 5 Hits, 1 BB, and 6 Ks in his season debut at Single-A. He is still a bit of an unknown with only one year as a starter under his belt, so the more information we get on him the better. Considering he is much more advanced than Single-A hitters, this might not tell us much either.

David Dahl COL, OF – 2 homers and a steal in his first 4 games at Double-A. If he can stay healthy, this might be the beginning of a monster season for Dahl.

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – This is an important year for Mondesi to establish his bat as a legitimate threat. This is the first year he will be repeating a Minor League level (Double-A), and while he is still much younger than his competition, he isn’t so young that his offensive struggles can be completely ignored anymore. He’s been good so far, triple-slashing .313/.353/.688, with 2 homers and a steal in his first 4 games. If he keeps this up, he will be a top 10 prospect by the end of the season.

Jacob Faria TB, RHP – 5.2 IP, 3 ERs, 3 Hits, 1 BB, and 8 Ks in his season debut at Double-A. If he can continue to maintain the strikeout numbers he put up at Double-A in the second half of last season, his prospect status will be on the rise.

Ozzie Albies ATL, SS – Atlanta pushed the 19-year-old Albies all the way to Double-A this season, and he has responded to the tune of a .389 BA in 19 PA. Atlanta is stacked at SS with both Albies and 2015 1st overall pick Dansby Swanson (who started the year at High-A), so it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out down the line.

Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – Minnesota took a shot on the college reliever Jay with the 6th pick of the 2015 draft, and he impressed in his first outing at High-A (5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks). He will be a fast riser if he keeps turning in performances like this.

Travis Demeritte TEX, 2B – The 30th overall pick in the 2013 draft, the 21-year-old Demeritte has already ripped 4 homers in his first 4 games at High-A. That now gives him 38 homers in 214 career Minor League games, to go along with 22 steals. He has major strikeout issues, but Demeritte is certainly one to watch.

Edwin Diaz SEA, RHP – Seattle’s top pitching prospect dominated in his first appearance of the season at Double-A (6.0 IP, 0 ERs, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks). He has a 9.3 K/9 in his Minor League career, and will call the spacious confines of Safeco Field his home park. The time is probably now to grab him.

Lucas Sims ATL, RHP – The 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft, the 21-year-old Sims is looking to reestablish his prospect value after a couple of uneven years. He got off to a strong start this season by striking out 9 batters and giving up only 1 hit in 5 IP at Double-A. He has the kind of strikeout potential fantasy owners love, and a pitcher’s park waiting for him in Atlanta.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Prospect Sleepers

Opening Day is here! No, MLB is not having another Opening Day (they’ve already had two). Today is the kick off to the 2016 MiLB season, and for Dynasty league owners, it can be just as exciting as MLB Opening Day(s). So please take a minute to stop rosterbating over your brilliant Trevor Story pick up – who I touted way back in February as a top 30 prospect (you’re welcome), but also told you to not get too excited for this year (oops … although my concerns still stand, clearly it is ok to be excited) –  and start getting ready to find the next under hyped, underrated stud. Here are the 2016 fantasy baseball dynasty league prospect sleepers that you should keep your eye on, if you haven’t scooped them already:

1) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B – Bradley fell to the 3rd round of the 2014 draft, but that was solely due to his big signing bonus demands, and not his talent level. All he has done is rake once reaching pro ball, jacking 8 homers in 39 rookie ball games in 2014, and 27 homers in Single-A last season. The 19-year-old Bradley will start this season with the High-A Lynchburg Hillcats, and it won’t take long before the hype starts to catch up with the talent. I ranked Bradley 18th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

2) Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Wrote a Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 20th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

3) Josh Hader MIL, LHP – A funky delivery and bullpen concerns have kept the hype for Hader in check, but considering the position the Brewers are in right now, they have every incentive to continue to develop him as a starter. The lanky 6’3’’ Hader is a strikeout machine (10.3 K/9 in Double-A last season), who relies heavily on his big fastball. If he can show improvement with his slider and/or changeup this year, more people will turn into believers. I ranked Hader 21st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

4) Tom Murphy COL, C – Murphy hit 20 homers in 105 games last season splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he hit 3 dingers in just 39 MLB PA. His defense has also improved to the point that nobody doubts he can stick at catcher. Nick Hundley’s contract runs out after this season, so the door is wide open for Murphy to win the starting job next year. His high strikeout numbers are the reason he is not more highly touted, but a poor average in not a killer at the catcher position, especially with the power he should provide at Coors. I ranked Murphy 32nd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

5) Alen Hanson PIT, 2B – Wrote an Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 33rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

6) Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B/OF – Covered Calhoun in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 43rd in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

7) Harrison Bader STL, OF – Covered Bader in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 51st in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

8) Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Put up a pitching line of 2.51/1.09/96 in 75.1 IP in Double-A last season. Doesn’t have the big fastball, but his delivery creates a lot of deception. Also gets a bump due to Tampa Bay’s success with developing pitchers like him. If he can keep up those strikeout numbers this season, people won’t be sleeping on him anymore. I ranked Faria 68th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

9) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – We can “own” prospects in fantasy, but we still need to rely on actual baseball teams to develop them, and there isn’t a better team at player development than the St. Louis Cardinals. Flaherty struck out 97 batters in 95 IP in his first full season of pro ball at Single-A. His fastball sat in the low 90’s last year, but if it ticks up a bit after adding strength this offseason, he could rocket up prospect lists. I ranked Flaherty 69th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

10) Justus Sheffield CLE, LHP – Cleveland has been on fire of late developing starting pitchers. Time to jump on the bandwagon. Sheffield struck out 138 batters in 127.2 IP in Single-A last season, and actually got better as the season went along, dominating in August and September. He is undersized for a starter at 5’10’’, which is probably why he has flown under the radar, but if he keeps putting up big strikeout numbers, he will force people to take notice. I ranked Sheffield 70th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

11) Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – Wrote a Tyler O’Neill, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper article, and ranked him 78th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

12) Austin Byler ARI, 1B – Covered Byler in my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, and ranked him 99th in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. (He is suspended for the first 50 games after testing positive for an amphetamine stimulant.)

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Felix Hernandez for $46!?!?

I sit on the edge of my shitty wooden chair as the bidding for Felix Hernandez blows past all reasonable estimates. Said chair is at the head of a large, boardroom style table, overflowing with burgers, corned beef hash, cheese fries, beer, and 12 scheming, devious fantasy baseball fanatics who I call my friends. It is our annual dynasty league auction draft located in a private backroom at Smith & Wollensky’s Steakhouse in Manhattan, and you can cut the tension with a butter knife right now (because butter knives are all we have; if you thought $100/person would get you steak at a steakhouse, you thought wrong). The bidding for Felix is down to two people, me and Greg.

“I’ll go $41,” a stone faced Greg announces from the other end of the table.

“$42,” I quickly fire back. The time for games is over. Felix is the last available “ace” on the board. The only other aces who were free agents in this year’s auction, David Price and Zach Grienke, already sold for $45 and $44, respectively ($260 budget). I bowed out of the bidding on both of those guys once the price hit $40, thinking I might be able to get Felix at a slight discount. Hah!

A brief silence falls over the room. “$43,” Greg finally squeaks out, sounding pretty unsure of himself.

I know a bunch of teams have cap space this year, but this is getting out of control. Felix Hernandez had a down year last year! There are red flags! I’m supposed to get him at a discount, goddamnit! I bite down hard, and try to summon some throwaway wisdom to help me rationalize the reckless bid I am about to make. “Fortune favors the bold,” I meekly blurt out to the room. “$44.”

The silence stretches on for longer this time. Greg looks like he might be ready to call it quits. “Alright man, I think I’m going to …” he stops mid-sentence. “Actually, nevermind, I’m going $45.”

You have got to be kidding me! Just at this moment, our waiter rolls in a cart filled with the 12 tequila shots we ordered earlier. I am at my wit’s end. Throwaway wisdom is not going to do it anymore. I need liquid courage! I stand up from this fucking horribly uncomfortable wooden chair, grab one of the glasses filled with a little too much tequila, and fire the shot back like a champ. “Felix Hernandez for 46!?!?” I shout out to the amused faces staring back at me from around the table. I did it! Felix is all but mine. No way Greg goes $47, he almost quit at $45!

“$46.50,” Greg says …

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Trevor Story and Spring Training Exploits

Trevor Story is the 30th ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post that I wrote in early February. I’m higher on him than most. In fact, I think I’m higher on him than any other prospect list I have read. But if you didn’t acquire Story at good value back in February, it is probably too late, as he has absolutely destroyed spring training pitching to the tune of, .378/.451/.911, with 6 homers in 51 PA. It seems like everyone has boarded the hype train. But it brings up the question, should his spring training stats matter?

In the sense that it has won him the starting SS job in Colorado, at least until/if Jose Reyes returns, his spring stats clearly matter. And for people that were either completely unaware of Story, or very down on his potential, then yeah, his monster spring stats should certainly put him on your radar. But for those of us who already knew and believed in the 20/20 upside, should his fantastic spring boost his stock even more? In other words, should we consider him a top 12 SS option for this season? After digging through some minor league stats from past years, the conclusion I came to is that I’m not so sure it should matter at all.

It didn’t take much searching before I found a good comparable, Mike Zunino. Just last spring, Zunino triple-slashed, .353/.431/.882, and jacked 7 homers in 58 spring training PA. Maybe this was a sign that the talented young hitter would finally break out? Nope. He followed that up with a regular season line of .174/.230/.300. The spring stats meant nothing. Similar to Story, Zunino was a young hitter with real strikeout issues. It isn’t a perfect comp, as Zunino can’t draw walks quite as well as Story, and had a history of struggling in the big leagues already. But what it does say to me, is that even an extreme case of spring training success will not guarantee a safe floor, let alone it being a harbinger for great success in the regular season.

There are many more examples. Well regarded hitting prospect Brandon Drury triple-slashed, .435/.533/.957, with 3 homers in 30 spring training PA last year. He then went on to put up a .756 OPS, with 5 total homers in 567 minor league PA split between Double-A and Triple-A, before hitting .214/.254/.375 in his MLB cup of coffee last September. Is he still considered a good hitting prospect? Yes. But were those spring training stats a good indicator for what he might do in his first taste of the majors? No.

We all know the old adage that spring training stats don’t matter, but it doesn’t stop us from getting drawn in year after year. I needed to dig into past spring training stats to remind myself of that. Pitchers are working on specific things and have no interest in making adjustments to what the hitter is doing. If Trevor Story wasn’t on your radar before, consider this his coming out party, but if he was, his hot spring training shouldn’t mean much to you. He is a talented fantasy prospect (top 30 in my book) who can surely surprise right out of the gate, but the more likely scenario is that there will be some bumps along the way. Add in the uncertainly surrounding Jose Reyes’ situation, and I don’t think Story has a great chance of cracking the top 12 this season. For 2016, I will give him a projection of 55/13/51/.250/8. For dynasty leagues, the strong spring only reinforces my high hopes for Story, and I will stick with my prime projection of 79/20/83/.258/14.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)