Posted on by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

First, it was the “Big Three” (Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy). Then, it was the “Killer B’s” (Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman). And now … the fans don’t nickname Yankees prospects anymore. But this current group might finally be the one to form the next Yankees core. Luis Severino and Greg Bird both impressed last season, as the first wave of this Yankees youth movement. Both also exhausted their rookie eligibility. Severino will begin the season in the Yankees starting rotation, while Bird is likely to start the season in AAA, waiting his turn behind Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Severino and Bird are just the tip of the iceberg, though. Here are the top 5 New York Yankees prospects for 2016:

1) Gary Sanchez C – “I’d like to unleash the Kracken,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters earlier this offseason, referring to Sanchez. Sanchez absolutely destroyed the Arizona Fall League in 2015, putting up a .982 OPS, and crushing 7 homers in only 22 games. This was coming off a season where he hit 18 homers in 93 games, splitting time between AA (58 games) and AAA (35 games). His defense continued to improve as well, to the point nobody doubts he can stick at catcher anymore. This is a bat-first, power hitting catcher. It doesn’t get much juicier than that.

ETA: 2016
Prime Projection: 67/22/83/.280/4

2) Aaron Judge OF – The 6’7’’, 275-pound Judge is more Judge Dredd, than Judge Judy. There is no question about his raw power. Splitting time between AA (63 games) and AAA (61 games) in 2015, Judge launched 20 homers and stole 7 bases. Strikeouts are a real concern, though, as he struck out 144 times in 124 games. His numbers also tanked when he reached AAA, triple-slashing a measly .224/.308/.373. But the home run upside is too much to ignore, and even if he always struggles to make contact, the power is not going anywhere.

ETA: 2016-17
Prime Projection: 75/26/90/.260/7

3) Jorge Mateo SS – Mateo stole 82 bases in two levels of A-ball last season. He hit only 2 homers, but his 6’0’’, 188-pound frame leaves room for more in the future. With the 25-year-old Didi Gregorius firmly entrenched at SS, and 25-year-old Starlin Castro at 2B, Mateo does not have a clear path to playing time with the Yankees. Although, the Yankees did reportedly offer Mateo in a trade for Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline last season, so he might be on a different team by the time he is major league ready anyway. Mateo has the upside to be a 5-category stud, but he has yet to play above A-ball, and his power has not shown up yet.

ETA: 2017-18
Prime Projection: 87/9/50/.275/42

4) James Kaprielian RHP – The Yankees drafted Kaprielian with the 16th overall pick in 2015. He is a fast moving, high floor college pitcher. Kaprielian throws a traditional four-pitch mix, sitting in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball. He projects as a mid-rotation starter, with good, but not elite strikeout numbers. Yankee Stadium and the AL East will not do him any favors either. If this write-up makes him seem safe and boring, that is because he is.

ETA: 2016-17
Prime Projection: 3.66/1.27/175 in 195 IP

5) Rob Refsnyder 2B – Refsnyder was prospect blocked last season by Stephen Drew and his .201 batting average. After Drew signed with the Washington Nationals this offseason to prospect block Trea Turner, it seemed like Refsnyder would finally get a real shot to win the second base job. But not so fast, the Yankees went out and traded for Castro. So it is back to AAA for Refsnyder. Refsnyder has an elite K/BB ratio, with average power and speed. All it would take is one injury to Castro, Didi, or Headley, to open up a spot on the major league roster for Refsnyder next season. He is also a prime candidate to be traded to a team with an opening at second base.

ETA: 2016
Prime Projection: 75/15/67/.285/12

Honorable Mentions: Wilkerman Garcia SS, Domingo Acevedo RHP, Ian Clarkin LHP, Brady Lail RHP, Tyler Wade SS

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Derek Fisher, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Sleeper

Let the Houston Astros’ Derek Fisher be a lesson to us all. Search Engine Optimization is a real concern when naming your baby. If you want any of your child’s accomplishments to be found on the internet (if you can’t find it on Google, did it ever really happen?), your child better not share his/her name with a more popular person. Google’s Derek Fisher is a 5-time NBA champion, and current head coach of the New York Knicks. Conversely, the 3rd Google hit is a headline that reads, “Matt Barnes drove 95 miles to ‘beat the s—t’ out of Derek Fisher.” SEO giveth, and taketh away. Either way, Fisher’s uncontested reign atop Google’s rankings might be coming to an end, because 2016 will be the year the Astros’ Derek Fisher starts to climb his way up the ranks, and cements his status as a future fantasy star. Which makes now your last chance to buy at a good value.

Fisher was drafted by the Astros with the 37th overall pick in 2014. He only slid that far because he was coming off a down senior season, and was demanding a large signing bonus. While he hit only 17 homers in 155 career college games playing OF for the Virginia Cavaliers, the Cavs are known to have an extreme pitchers’ park. The 6’3’’, 207-pound Fisher had all the physical tools to eventually tap into his plus raw power, to go along with his already plus speed, and hitting ability. And that is exactly what happened for Fisher in 2015.

As a 21-year-old outfielder splitting time in Single-A (39 games) and High-A (84 games), Fisher triple-slashed .275/.364/.483, with 22 homers and 31 steals. He reinforced this breakout against tougher competition in the Arizona Fall League, triple-slashing .254/.397/.424, with 2 homers and 3 steals in 17 games. As his OBP numbers reveal, Fisher has a strong command of the strike zone, drawing a walk in 11.6% of his plate appearances last season. He is going to start 2016 in AA and should see AAA by the end of the season, with a 2017 ETA for the majors.

But it is not all rainbows, there are some risks here as well. The power breakout came with an increase in strikeouts, as he struck out 132 times in 123 games. Both the California League (where he did most of his damage last year) and the Arizona Fall League are notorious hitters’ leagues. While the Astros’ home ballpark, Minute Maid Park, favors hitters, there is a decent chance Fisher is traded this season to bolster an already strong Astros team. Underscoring this, it was reported that Fisher was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this offseason in the Ken Giles deal, before word spread that it was Mark Appel who would be on the move, not Fisher.

These are minor concerns in the inherently uncertain world of baseball prospects. If Fisher can come anywhere close to repeating his 20/30 season in AA/AAA this year, the buy window will be slammed shut. In his prime, Fisher projects to hit about .270, with 20-25 homers and 15-20 steals. He holds even more value in OBP/BB leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Matt Wieters, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper

Owning the Baltimore Orioles’ Matt Wieters in fantasy baseball last season, was like waiting for your perpetually late friend to finally show up for dinner. 15 minutes after they are already supposed to be there, you get a text saying they will be there in “5 min.” 45 minutes later, they finally show up. Just take a look at Wieters’ Rotoworld updates prior to finally making his 2015 debut:

December 21, 2014 – “Agent Scott Boras has said that his client, Matt Wieters (elbow), will be ready to play on Opening Day … as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.”

February 28, 2015 – “Everything is trending toward the 28-year-old being ready for Opening Day.”

March 20, 2015 – “Wieters is dealing with some tendinitis in his surgically-repaired right elbow. The Orioles aren’t viewing it as a setback and are still hopeful of him being ready for Opening Day.”

March 21, 2015 – “The Orioles are tentatively targeting a return on April 11, citing this as a precautionary measure rather than a setback in his recovery.”

April 8, 2015 – “The Orioles are going to continue to play it safe with their star catcher, who probably won’t be ready until sometime in early May.”

May 1, 2015 – “A return in late May or early June for Matt Wieters (elbow) ‘seems reasonable.’”

May 10, 2015 – “Wieters continues to rehab in extended spring training and is on track to rejoin the Orioles at some point in June.”

June 5, 2015 – “Wieters will make his season debut on Friday after making his way back from Tommy John surgery.”

You see what I mean? Even after he made his debut, Wieters still dealt with lingering arm soreness all season, and needed to be heavily rested. He never allowed himself to properly heal from his torn UCL, and his playing time and production took a hit as a result. He played in only 75 games, triple-slashing .267/.319/.422, and hitting 8 homers.

The silver lining in all of this, is that his injury-ravaged 2015 makes him an ideal fantasy sleeper for 2016. With a full offseason of rest, and almost two years removed from the surgery, Wieters figures to be fully healthy this upcoming year. His 2015 numbers actually look pretty good considering the circumstances, and were not far off from his career averages. Wieters was also enjoying a strong start to the 2014 season before tearing his UCL, hitting .308/.339/.500, with 5 homers in 104 at-bats. In the three years prior to the injury, he hit 22, 23, and 22 homers, respectively.

All signs point to the 29-year-old Wieters having a bounce back season in 2016. On top of that, he still has the kind of raw talent and ability (he was ranked the #1 overall prospect in all of baseball in 2009), that a late career breakout is not out of the question. For 2016, I will give Wieters the projection of 62/21/75/.270/0, and should easily finish as a top 10 fantasy catcher.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Jimmy Nelson, 2016 Fantasy Sleeper

Jimmy Nelson was labeled a fantasy “breakout” candidate last year. He did not breakout. Now he gets downgraded to the less dignified “sleeper” label. I’m cutthroat like that. He must pay for his mediocrity! Which is exactly how he pitched last year. Nelson finished the 2015 season for the Milwaukee Brewers with a 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 148 K’s in 177.1 IP. At certain points during the year, he looked like a top 15 fantasy starter. At others, he looked unrosterable. It was that inconsistency which makes him an intriguing fantasy sleeper for 2016, because nobody wants someone who is consistently mediocre. You hear that kids! Be awesome, or be awful. People will think you are full of potential!

Nelson does have real potential though. He throws a 93-94 MPH fastball, a nasty slider, and a knuckle curveball that he added to his arsenal prior to last season. The knuckle curve graded out as an average pitch in his first year of using it. With continued refinement, it can become a deadly weapon combined with his big fastball and plus slider.

Nelson has also been a pillar of health throughout his entire professional career. He pitched 146 innings in 2011, 127.1 innings in 2012, 152.1 innings in 2013, 180.1 innings in 2014, and 177.1 innings in 2015. His 6’6’’, 243-pound build is tailor made to be an innings eating, workhorse starter. The strikeout potential is there too. Nelson struck out 549 batters in 563.1 IP in his minor league career. In 2014, he struck out 114 batters in 111 IP while pitching in the PCL, a league that is death on pitchers. In his first 256.2 IP in the majors, he struck out a respectable 213 batters.

Nelson will still have to pitch in the launching pad that is Miller Park, which does cap his upside a bit. For 2016, I will give Nelson the projection of 3.51/1.25/178 in 192 IP. The 26-year-old holds even more value in dynasty/keeper leagues.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Matz vs. Severino

There ain’t enough room in this town for the both of ‘em! Well, New York has two baseball teams and ten rotation spots between them, so maybe there is. But they can’t both dominate the back pages of the New York papers! I guess they can on different days. But only one can be the talk of the town! Eh, it is a pretty big “town,” both of them can generate plenty of talk. It is the fan rivalry that really matters though! Mets fans cannot stand the Yankees and Yankees fans cannot sta … well actually, Yankees fans don’t really care about the Mets. Damn it! It should be a lot easier to drum up some drama over this. One last try:

NEW YORK!!! METS’ PHENOM PROSPECT VS. YANKEES’ PITCHING PRODIGY! ONLY ONE CAN PREVAIL!

That will have to do.

Steven Matz: Baseball America ranked Matz the 33rd best prospect in baseball coming into the 2015 season. He went on to dominate Triple-A in the Pacific Coast League, a league notorious for being very tough on pitchers. This earned him a call up to the big leagues, where he put up a miniscule 2.27 ERA, striking out 34 batters in 35.2 innings pitched. A big lefty, with a prototypical pitcher’s build (6’2’’, 200 pounds), Matz’s electric stuff backs up the early results. His 95 MPH fastball is the first thing to jump out at you, but he compliments that with a plus curveball and change-up.

Matz does not come without a few red flags. His injury history being the most concerning. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010, and didn’t become symptom-free for two years. Don’t believe me? Matz told a reporter earlier this year, “I had the surgery on May 18, 2010. I didn’t become symptom-free for two years.” Because of the injury setbacks, Matz was considered old (as far as top prospects go) at each of his minor league stops, delaying his major league debut until he was 24 years old. The injury bug has already hit Matz in the majors. He missed six weeks with a torn lat muscle towards the end of last year.

Luis Severino: Baseball America ranked Severino the 35th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2015 season. Like Matz, after dominating in the minors to start the year, Severino did not miss a beat once getting called up. He pitched to a 2.89 ERA, striking out 56 batters in 62.1 innings pitched. He also throws a big, 95 MPH fastball, complimented by a plus slider and developing change-up.

Unlike Matz, Severino made his major league debut as a 21-year-old, with a spotless record of health. He also entered a much tougher pitching environment. The AL East scored the most runs in baseball last year, and Yankee Stadium is notoriously tough on right-handed pitchers. Matz pitched in a pitcher’s park (Citi Field), against the weakest hitting division in baseball (NL East), and in a league where the pitcher hits (NL).

Severino is not without his warts either. Listed at 6’0’’, 195 pounds, he is considered undersized to be a major league starter. Compounding this issue, he does not utilize the lower half of his body enough during his delivery. This results in putting excess stress on his arm to generate most of his power, increasing the risk of an arm-related injury. Severino is also more raw than Matz, as his secondary pitches are not as refined and consistent.

Verdict: For fantasy baseball, Matz is the guy you want. The far superior pitching conditions he will face makes that an easy call. In real life, Severino gets the slight edge. His spotless track record of health, compared to Matz’s littered injury history, is too much to ignore. Nothing is more important than a pitcher’s health. For 2016, I will give Matz a projection of 3.49/1.23/156 in 160 IP. I will give Severino the projection of 3.68/1.26/158 in 175 IP. Long term, both project as top-of-the-rotation starters.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Alen Hanson, 2016 Fantasy Prospect Sleeper

Alan Henson. Alen Henson. Alan Hanson … ALEN HANSON! You are excused if you are never able to spell his name quite right. I am pretty sure his name is meant as one of those mental twister games. Google has completely given up on me. They do not even ask me, “did you mean Alen Hanson,” anymore, they just know what I meant. But you are not excused for forgetting about Hanson in your upcoming prospect, or keeper league drafts.

Hanson broke out for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012, as a 19-year-old in Single-A. He triple-slashed, .309/.381/.528, with 16 homers and 35 steals. MLB.com ranked him the 54th best prospect in baseball the following season. But Hanson’s numbers have been far less eye-popping the last three years, as he continued to climb the minor league ladder. His position has also been downgraded from SS, to 2B. He fell in MLB.com’s prospect rankings to #67 in 2014, and then #92 in 2015. Which makes now the perfect time to buy.

The opportunity is there for Hanson to secure the starting 2B job right out of the gate. The Pirates starting 2B for the last six years, Neil Walker, was traded to the New York Mets earlier this month. Jung Ho Kang’s availability for the start of next season is uncertain, as he is still recovering from surgery, after tearing his meniscus and breaking his tibia last season. This leaves Josh Harrison to play 3B, Jordy Mercer to play SS, and Hanson to play 2B to begin the 2016 season.

Even when Kang returns, there will be plenty of at-bats to go around. Last season, Kang played 77 games at 3B and 60 games at SS. Harrison played 72 games at 3B, 37 games at 2B, and 22 games in the OF. In the minors, Hanson played 111 games at 2B and 7 games at 3B. He also played 370 games at SS in his minor league career. In other words, the Pirates will find ways to keep Hanson in the line-up if he is playing well. There is even a small chance he plays enough at SS, or 3B, to gain eligibility there during the season. (Update: Despite a strong Spring, Pittsburgh decided to send Hanson back down to the minors for more seasoning.)

So, what kind of numbers can we expect from Hanson in 2016 and beyond? His huge 2012 season shows his considerable potential and raw talent. Taking a deeper look at those “down” seasons from 2013-2015, things really don’t look that bad. His walk and strikeout rates remained relatively stable (about 7% and 17%, respectively), even as his competition improved each year. He has been younger than his competition at every level. He also played in leagues, and home ballparks, that favor the pitcher. Last season was his best in terms of steals, as he stole 35 bases at Triple-A, being caught only 12 times.

At his peak, all of this points to a player who projects to hit about .280, with 12-14 homers and 25 steals. Easily a top 10 2B option for fantasy. I would not expect Hanson to reach those lofty goals in 2016, but if he even comes close, nobody will forget how to spell his name again.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com