Posted on by Michael Halpern

Chase Vallot, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Breakout

When your girlfriend’s Twitter handle is @craycray_tayy, it is no wonder that Single-A pitching has been no problem for Chase Vallot to handle this season 😉 The 19-year-old Vallot, Kansas City Royals, is triple-slashing .291/.394/.539, with 8 homers, and a 60/20 K/BB in 41 games, and he is quickly becoming one of my favorite fantasy baseball prospect sleepers. Here is what I wrote about Vallot a few weeks ago in my Week 6 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rundown:

Bat speed, power, and strikeouts make for some of my favorite prospect sleepers (remember my 30th ranked prospect Trevor Story?), and the 19-year-old Vallot checks all of those boxes. The 40th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Vallot crushed 13 homers in 80 games at Single-A last season, and he is off to a strong start this season, slashing .279/.391/.529, with 6 homers, and a 43/16 K/BB in 31 games. Here is a scouting video of him in high school displaying that super quick bat speed, and here is a video of him absolutely crushing a homer earlier this year. He is built like a brick shit house, and even if he doesn’t stick at catcher, I feel pretty confident in saying Vallot is going to continue to hit the ball very hard when he isn’t striking out. He is a great deep league sleeper.

Power has always been Vallot’s calling card. He won the home run derby in the Perfect Game National while in high school, and hit 13 homers in 99 at-bats his senior year as the second youngest player in his draft class. The Royals fell in love with him after he crushed the longest home run of all the players they worked out for the draft, and judging by that above linked “Chase Vallot KILLS this baseball” Youtube video, he is still impressing with his insane power. He is still raw defensively behind the plate, but the fact that this kind of power bat even has a chance of sticking at catcher is only a positive. He will be an impact fantasy hitter regardless of position.

Vallot will definitely move into my mid-season top 100 fantasy prospects update, and he should be on the radar of fantasy owners in Dynasty Leagues of all formats and sizes. You can follow him on Twitter @Chase_Vallot, and I wish him and his girlfriend all the best 🙂

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 8

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 8:

2nd Lt. Ange, Sgt. Jackson, Spc. Mackenzie, 1st Lt. Carey, 2nd Lt. Del Pino, Staff Sgt. Thatcher, Sgt. Hill, Sgt. Rivera, Spc. Binge, and Spc. Chambers United States Army – In honor of Memorial Day, I thought the least I could do was include a soldier of the week in the Rundown, and in doing so I stumbled across 10 soldiers of the week. These men and women were the winners of the 10th AAMDC’s Best Warrior Competition, which is a grueling 4-day competition where the soldiers have to complete several mentally and physically strenuous challenges on only 3 hours sleep per night. 15 competitors started the competition, and these 10 soldiers were the ones left standing. Congratulations to them, and if you want to read more about the competition, you can check out this article.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – Went deep in back-to-back-to-back games again this week and now has 11 dingers on the season. For someone “definitely not trying to hit home runs,” he sure hits a lot of home runs.

Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B – Bader isn’t making it easy, but Willie is climbing back in the race to be the best find from my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article that I wrote in the off-season. Calhoun smacked 3 homers this week (including one last night!), bringing his season slash line up to a very respectable .267/.325/.461 with 7 homers as a 21-year-old in Double-A. Welcome to the party, Willie.

Byron Buxton MIN, OF – Buxton is officially destroying Triple-A, slashing .333/.402/.605, with 6 homers, and 4 steals in 28 games. It’s not going to make people forgot about his extreme struggles in the majors these past two years, but it’s a start.

Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – The 22-year-old Buxton might as well be a washed up has been compared to the new cool kid on the block, Rodgers. He smashed a homer in his first game back returning from a hamstring injury, giving him 8 on the year in 35 games at Single-A.

Kyle Lewis Mercer, OF – My #1 ranked prospect in my Top 30 2016 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings, Lewis jacked 3 more homers this week, giving him 20 on the season in 61 games. He is the premiere power hitting prospect in the draft. #2 ranked prospect Corey Ray kept up the pace as well, tacking on another dinger (15) and 2 steals (39) this week.

Matt Thaiss Virginia, C – Blasted another homer this week, and is now slashing .382/.477/.591 with 10 homers in 57 games in the ACC. I ranked him #23 in my Top 30 Draft Prospects due to his elite contact skills, but there could be even more power in his bat too when he gets out of Virginia’s pitcher’s park. He’ll probably be ranked higher when I update the Top 30 list as we get closer to the draft.

Lucas Giolito WASH, RHP – Had his best start of the season this week (7 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 6 K), and he hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in all but one of his starts. I said back in week 5 that he will eventually find his rhythm and turn it around, and I still believe that.

Alex Reyes STL, RHP – 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BB, 7 K in his second start back from suspension. You can expect him to continue to rack up those K’s and BB’s.

Braden Shipley ARI, RHP – Shipley has a BB/9 of 1.0 and K/9 of 6.9 in 62.1 IP in the PCL this season. I can’t even get upset at those weak strikeout totals, 7 total walks on the season in that pitching environment is just impressive. More so for real life, but still.

Phil Bickford SFG, RHP – Bickford continues to impress, going 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 7 K in his start this week, and a holds a stellar pitching line of 2.72/1.02/50 in 43 IP. He is doing this in Single-A, so it’s probably time to see him against tougher competition.

Alex Bregman HOU, SS – Bregman has been so hot the entire season that I didn’t think it was possible for him to get any hotter, but he has managed to heat up even more this week, slashing .364/.440/.591 with 2 more homers. Houston’s 3rd base situation continues to be a disaster, with Colin Moran doing little to help the cause so far, so Bregman may get his chance sooner rather than later.

Willson Contreras CHC, C – Blasted 3 homers this week, giving him 6 on the season in 42 games. His power was the one area he had to improve on coming into this season, and his ISO is now .50 points higher in Triple-A than it was in Double-A last year.

Jorge Alfaro PHI, C – The talented Alfaro is “finally” (he is 22) putting it together this season, hitting 2 more homers this week, and is now slashing .336/.347/.517 with 4 homers in 27 games at Double-A. He has as much fantasy potential as any catcher in the minors.

Tyler O’Neill SEA, OF – This is just your friendly, periodic reminder that Tyler O’Neill exists, and he is very, very good. The 20-year-old O’Neill is slashing .315/.380/.560, with 9 homers, and 3 steals in 48 games at Double-A, and he should be a relatively sought after fantasy commodity.

Bradley Zimmer CLE, OF – 2 more homers, 2 more steals, and had only 5 K’s in his last 6 games before dropping a golden sombrero last night (4 K’s in a game). We know he has the power and speed, so limiting K’s is last thing he has to improve on.

Austin Meadows PIT, OF – Meadows is starting to shake the rust off after coming back from a fractured orbital bone, slashing .409/.458/.591 in Double-A this week. He is slashing .255/.330/.398 on the season, and the power is the last thing remaining to make him a true elite fantasy prospect.

Joey Gallo TEX, OF – Here is what I wrote about Gallo in last week’s rundown: “You can expect him to continue to be prospect blocked, and if I were a Gallo owner, I would be hoping he gets traded away at the deadline.” Then, right on cue a few hours later, Texas called him up the big leagues and everyone got excited (including me), only to see him rarely play and get sent right back down. Your guess is as good as mine as to what Texas’ plans are with Gallo.

John Lamb CIN, LHP – Lamb was one of my favorite pitching prospect sleepers coming into this year, ranking him 40th in my Top 100 before it was revealed he had back surgery earlier in the off-season. He has simply not displayed the same stuff and velocity so far this year, averaging 89.3 MPH on his fastball after averaging 91.1 MPH last year. When you are already in the low 90’s, you don’t really have 2 MPH to spare. Hopefully he gains velocity the further away he gets from that back surgery, but it’s tough to see him take a step back after making so much progress coming off a long Tommy John Surgery recovery.

Jack Flaherty STL, RHP – Flaherty (#69) is another one of my favorite pitching prospect sleepers who has struggled this year, but he had the best start of his season this week, going 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BB, 9 K. Flaherty credited the outing to the advice he received from former high school teammates Giolito and Max Fried.

Erick Fedde WASH, RHP – Still trying to fully recover from 2014 Tommy John Surgery, Fedde has now spun two shutouts in a row, striking out 11 and walking 1 in 11 IP. His season line still doesn’t look great, but this season is more about staying healthy and building up his IP count anyway. If he can continue to dominate, even better.

Luis Ortiz TEX, RHP – Got promoted to Double-A last week, and went a combined 11 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BB, 7 K in his two starts at the level. It looks like Texas might fast track the 20-year-old Ortiz, and he could make his MLB debut as soon as next season.

Tyler Viza PHI, RHP – Viza put himself on my radar back in week 6, and he had his best start of the season this week, going 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BB, 11 K. He isn’t someone I would be jumping on, but if he gets promoted to Double-A and can keep it up, you will start to see his name popping up in more places.

Ronald Guzman TEX, 1B – The 21-year-old Guzman cranked 2 more dingers this week (in one game), and is now slashing .329/.392/.547, with 7 homers, and a 38/16 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He is solidifying himself as one of the top breakout fantasy prospects of 2016.

Dylan Cozens PHI, OF – Cozens keeps on raking, hitting 3 more homers this week, giving him 14 on the season in 49 games at Double-A. I still think he has some holes in his swing and he is doing this is an excellent hitter’s environment, but I can’t deny the power numbers.

Heath Quinn Samford, OF/Ronnie Dawson Ohio St, OF – Quinn and Dawson are two of my favorite sleepers in the upcoming MLB Draft, and they both continued to do damage this week. Quinn knocked 2 more homers, giving him 21 on the season, and Dawson hit another homer (13) and swiped four more bags (20). Dawson (#30) is probably a deeper sleeper than Quinn (#14). We’ll call Dawson a REM sleeper, while Quinn is more of a napper.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Top 30 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

The 2016 MLB Draft will be held on June 9, 2016, and for fantasy baseball, that means a huge influx of talent is about to join the player pool. For fantasy, I generally prefer college over high school players, because most fantasy leagues have limited space for minor leaguers and there is a greater incentive for them to quickly reach the big leagues. Value can also change post-draft depending on what team/ballpark a player gets drafted to. For example, you should upgrade hitters drafted by Colorado and downgrade pitchers. How players perform once reaching pro ball can also have a big impact on their value. With that in mind, here are the 2016 Top 30 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospects:

Updated 2016 Top 30 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

1) Kyle Lewis Mercer, OF – Elite bat speed, power, and athleticism is just about all that you can ask for in a top fantasy prospect, and Lewis possesses all three. The 6’4’’, 195-pound Lewis has jacked 17 homers in back-to-back years, and he is triple-slashing .411/.545/.729 in 56 games in the Southern Conference this season, a middle of the pack D1 conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if that 195-pound weight is outdated, though, because Lewis is built like a solid rock, and when he steps up to the plate, he does so with bad intentions. Just check out this quick video to see the talent we are dealing with here. There are a lot of moving parts in his swing, and he is still a bit raw, but I don’t even think those things are negatives. He is only 20 years old, and if he is this good already, imagine how scary good he can be with continued refinement and improvement. Lewis is the guy I want with the top pick in fantasy drafts.

2) Corey Ray Louisville, OF – Ray presents the best power/speed combo in the draft, as he is slashing .326/.398/.581, with 14 homers, and 37 steals in 56 games in the ACC, one of the best conferences in D1. He has top end bat speed, athleticism, and base running ability, and he is a 5-category producer who is bound to hit atop a Major League lineup in a few short years. He doesn’t have the physicality of Lewis, but considering the tougher competition he has faced, and more well-rounded production, I can see a case for Ray being #1 overall, as well.

3) Zack Collins Miami, C – Collins smashed 11 homers as a 19-year-old freshman in the ACC in 2014, and he has kept raking since then. He is slashing a ridiculous .381/.552/.645, with 11 homers in 51 games this season, and there are no questions about his advanced bat. The only question is if the 6’3’’, 225 pound Collins can stick at catcher, but for fantasy, that would just be icing on the cake. Being able to mash is much more important, and he can obviously mash. Ignore his relatively low ranking on real baseball draft lists, because defense actually matters in real baseball, but in fantasy, not so much. Collins is the type of fast moving college hitter who can pay dividends for your fantasy team very quickly.

4) Will Craig Wake Forrest, 1B/3B – Craig is another “unathletic,” poor defensive player who just destroys the highest levels of D1. He has blindingly fast bat speed, and is triple-slashing .385/.532/.758 with 15 homers in 49 games in the ACC. At 6’3’’, 235 pounds, Craig has been criticized for his soft body and speed that you can time with a sundial, but actually being able to hit is much more important than just looking the part; Craig is in the mold a Lance Berkman. Once again, ignore the low ranking on real draft lists due to his defensive concerns, Craig should be treated as one of the top hitters in this draft class for fantasy baseball.

5) Nick Senzel Tennessee, 3B – Senzel would rank even higher if not for his moderate home run power, but he is still one of the most advanced college hitters in the draft, and he has some speed, as well. He is currently dominating the best conference in D1, slashing .352/.456/.595, with 8 homers, and 25 steals in 57 games in the SEC. He has displayed more raw power in batting practice than in games (don’t we all), and he has a good chance of sticking at 3B. If you want a fast moving, safe college bat who should provide solid numbers across the board, Senzel is your man.

6) Riley Pint HS, RHP – If I’m taking a risky high schooler, I’m going all the way, and taking the riskiest of them all. Pint has by far the most electrifying stuff in the draft (skip to the 45 second mark), and it is not just his upper 90’s heater with great movement, but also his excellent, deceptive changeup. His biggest problems are that his delivery is a bit of a mess, and his control and command are all over the place, but safe high school pitcher is an oxymoron to me, anyway. The 6’4’’, 210-pound Pint has raw ability that you can’t teach, and after the top college bats are off the board, I want the player with the highest upside and most freakish talent.

7) A.J. Puk Florida, LHP – A.J. Puk sounds like the name of a bad guy in a Mighty Ducks movie, and he has the size to fit the role too, standing a gangly 6’7’’, 230 pounds. His best pitch is a mid-90’s fastball that has good deception and swing and miss ability, and he pairs that with an inconsistent slider and changeup. He strikes out a ton of batters (12.81 K/9), but it comes with serious control and command issues (4.47 BB/9). Puk is a high risk, high reward college pitcher who tops out as a strong #2 fantasy starter, and bottoms out as a guy who just can’t command his pitches well enough to remain an effective starter.

8) Jason Groome HS, LHP – The 6’6’’, 220-pound Groome is known for his devastating curveball that he already has good command over. He also throws an effortless low 90’s heater that he can dial up to the mid-90’s at times, along with a still developing changeup. There is no denying that if you were going to build a pitcher from scratch, he would look something like Groome, but without the no doubt upper 90’s heater, and considering the development time and inherent risks with high school pitchers, I can’t place him higher than 8th.

9) Anfernee Grier Auburn, OF – Grier looks like he has two tree branches for arms, and he uses that power to absolutely crush the baseball. He is the breakout college player of the 2016 class, and is slashing .366/.457/.576, with 12 homers, and 19 steals in 56 games in the SEC so far this year. There are some strikeouts in his profile, but the power/speed combo is too much to ignore, and Grier has the potential to be a fantasy stud. He is also almost a full year younger than many of the other college prospects, as he is not turning 21 until mid-October.

10) Ian Anderson HS, RHP – Anderson doesn’t have the upper 90’s fastball, either, sitting 91-95, but he has an advanced feel for pitching and can already throw 3 above average pitches in any count (fastball, changeup, curveball). This video at the 25 second mark is a great example of his easy, repeatable delivery, and how he can throw all of his pitches with the same arm speed and arm angle. He has a projectable frame, and if he gains velocity as he ages, he can become a legitimate fantasy ace.

11) Dakota Hudson MISS ST, RHP – Hudson is your typical low risk college starter who can reach the Big Leagues in a hurry. He is a sturdy 6’5’’, 205 pounds, with a 92-96 MPH fastball, and a MLB ready hard curveball/slider. There isn’t even much projection left to see a mid-rotation starter with some strikeout ability, but don’t expect a true difference making fantasy starter.

12) Mickey Moniak HS, OF – Moniak is considered the best pure high school hitter in the draft. He has a loose and easy swing that sprays line drives all over the field, and he pairs that with plus speed. While his slight build leads to some questions about his ultimate power potential, Moniak is a good bet to hit for high average with 15+ steals. If he bulks up and adds more power down the line, he can truly be a special player.

13) Nolan Jones HS, SS/3B – The 6’,4’’, 200-pound Jones has a quick swing that is geared for both average and power. He is one of the best athletes in the pool, and he recently gained 30 pounds of muscle. He is likely to end up at 3B long term, but the bat profiles just fine there. If you are looking for an upside power hitting corner infielder, Jones is your guy.

14) Heath Quinn Samford, OF – The 6’3’’, 220 pound Quinn can flat out hit. He loads his hands well and creates excellent bat speed with his swing. It has resulted in him absolutely dominating the Southern Conference for 3 straight years, doing his best work this season, slashing .345/.459/.682 with 19 homers in 56 games. While the Southern Conference is only a middling D1 conference, Quinn also performed very well in the Cape Cod League last year, slashing .317/.384/.486 with 4 homers in 39 games. He might not be able to completely keep up his mammoth homerun power on the next level, but he has some to spare, and I might actually be a little too low on him at #14.

15) Eric Lauer KENT ST, LHP – Lauer might be the safest college pitcher in the draft. He has absolutely dominated the MAC, putting up a pitching line of 0.76/0.74/116 in 95 IP. He throws a traditional 4 pitch mix, but his fastball sits in the low 90’s, and he doesn’t have a real put away pitch. If he threw his fastball in the 93-96 MPH range, he might be the top pitcher in the draft, but without that big fastball and/or put away pitch, I can’t justify ranking him higher. If you hear reports of added velocity at any point before the draft or into his professional career, I would jump on Lauer very quickly.

16) Jordan Sheffield Vanderbilt, RHP – Sheffield is a small right handed pitcher with nasty stuff and a high effort delivery. He is dominating the best conference in D1 right now, putting up a pitching line of 2.38/1.14/101 in 90.2 IP. He has a strong 3-pitch mix and baseball bloodlines (Gary Sheffield is his Uncle). I might be falling into the same trap that many others have in undervaluing small right handed pitchers, but he has some control issues (3.28 BB/9) and there is injury and bullpen risk, as well.

17) Taylor Trammell HS, OF – Trammel very well may be the best pure athlete in the draft. He could have played college football after rushing for 2,479 yards and 36 touchdowns on route to winning Georgia’s Offensive Player of the Year Award this season, but he chose baseball instead. His best tool is plus, plus speed, but the bat has potential too, displaying vicious bat speed (54 second mark) and the ability to hit for both average and power. He is higher risk than even your typical high school player, because he is still raw after splitting his focus between football and baseball, but he has the potential to end up the best player in this draft. I’ll take the risk at this point in the rankings.

18) Braxton Garrett HS, LHP – Garrett is like the less advanced version of Lauer, except with higher upside being that he is 2 years younger. He throws a low 90’s heater that he pairs with a plus curveball and developing changeup. If you prefer the upside of Braxton over the safety and proximity to the majors of Lauer, I can see swapping them in the rankings.

19) Joey Wentz HS, LHP – Wentz is another high upside high school pitcher in a draft jammed packed with them. He has an easy, athletic delivery which he fires a 90-95 MPH fastball from, and he pairs that with an above average curveball and changeup. He is also a good enough power hitting first baseman that he is considered a legitimate prospect there too. In other words, the guy is an elite athlete who can do anything on a baseball field. There is some risk here as with any high school pitcher, but Wentz has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter.

20) Blake Rutherford HS, OF – I have to admit that I am not the biggest Rutherford fan. He is a year older than many other players from his high school class and he did not take a step forward in the power department this year. He is obviously immensely talented and the guy can hit, so I readily admit that I might end up being too low on him.

21) Bryan Reynolds Vanderbilt, OF – Reynolds is a high floor, low ceiling college bat who hit very well in the SEC this year, slashing .330/.460/.612, with 12 homers, and 7 steals in 57 games. He strikes out a bit too much, and while he does have opportunistic speed, he is far from a burner. Reynolds is a nice college bat to scoop up at this point in the rankings.

22) Matt Thaiss Virginia, C – Thaiss is an elite contact hitter, striking out only 11 times and walking 34 times in 54 games in the ACC. He has some power too, hitting 10 homers last season and 9 this season playing his home games in a pitcher’s park. There is some concern that he won’t be able to stick behind the plate, but he has one of the most advanced bats in the draft, and should be a fast mover.

23) Chris Okey Clemson, C – Okey is a good bet to stick at catcher, and he has a strong bat as well, slashing .341/.459/.592 with 12 homers in 56 games in the ACC. He is a strong dude, and while he doesn’t project to be a star, it is not hard to imagine him becoming a top 12 fantasy catcher in what has become an especially weak offensive position.

24) Delvin Perez HS, SS – Perez looks like a sure bet to be an exciting, above average shortstop, but there are questions surrounding his bat, which is not what fantasy owners like to hear. He has plus, plus speed and he does have the raw talent to figure it out at the plate, so Perez still cracks the Top 30.

25) Matt Manning HS, RHP – The 6’6’’, 185-pound Manning is the son of former NBA player Rich Manning. His best pitch a big fastball that sits in the mid 90’s, with recent reports having it all the way up into the upper 90’s. He pairs that with an inconsistent curveball and changeup. Manning is your prototypical projectable high school starter, and I can see wanting to bet on his big frame and big fastball.

26) Josh Lowe HS, 3B/OF – Lowe is one of the best athletes in the draft and he displays plus raw power and speed. The skills aren’t completely refined yet, but his upside is as high as anybody’s.

27) Alex Kirilloff HS, OF – His best tool is his plus raw power, which is exactly what fantasy owners like to hear. He won the 2015 Home Run Derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic, and if you are looking for a lottery ticket power bat, Kirilloff if your guy.

28) Forrest Whitley HS, RHP – The 6’7’’, 250-pound Whitley throws a low 90’s heater, power curveball, and developing changeup. There isn’t much projection left, but he already has the build of a workhorse starter, and the raw stuff to go with it, too.

29) William Benson HS, OF – Nothing to say other than watch this video of Benson hitting. High risk, very high reward.

30) Ronnie Dawson Ohio St, OF – Dawson has an intriguing power/speed combo, slashing .300/.398/.581, with 12 homers, and 16 steals in 56 games in the Big 10. He hit well from his very first year in college, and with his power explosion this season, I would prefer to take a shot on him rather than one of the many upside high schoolers still on the board.

* Cal Quantrill Stanford, RHP – Quantrill might have been the top pitcher chosen in the draft if not for needing Tommy John surgery in March 2015. Before the surgery, he threw a traditional 4-pitch mix with his plus changeup being his most dangerous weapon. His dad is longtime Major Leaguer Paul Quantrill. If you want to bet that Quantrill can fully recover from the surgery, I can see slotting him as high as #15.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 7

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 7:

Corey Seager LAD, SS – My #1 ranked prospect in my pre-season top 100, Seager has been scorching hot of late, launching 5 homers in his last 12 games. The recently turned 22-year-old Seager is now slashing .273/.328/.472 with 7 homers in 44 games in MLB this season, after dominating there in 27 games last season. I think it’s time for the Dodgers to call him up to the next level. Oh wait, MLB is the highest level, you say? Damn this kid is good.

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – It looks like Double-A might have actually slowed Benintendi down a little bit, as he has struck out 5 times in 4 games, after striking out only 9 times in 34 games at High-A. I think he will figure it out and be just fine, but it is a reminder that he was far too advanced for High-A to begin with.

Anfernee Grier Auburn University, OF – Meet the Andrew Benintendi of the 2016 MLB Draft. I ranked Grier 11th overall in my continuing 2016 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 11-21, and he has smacked 2 more homers since then. He is now slashing .366/.457/.576, with 12 homers, and 19 steals in 56 games in the SEC. I was tempted to rank Grier higher at the time I wrote the article, and I’m no longer tempted, because he will be in my top 10, and maybe even top 5 when I finish the rankings and put it all together.

Corey Ray Louisville, OF – My #2 ranked prospect on my MLB Draft Fantasy Prospect Rankings: 1-5, Ray jacked another homer and swiped another bag this week, giving him 14 homers, 37 steals (0 CS), and a .326/.398/.581 triple-slash in 56 games in the ACC. I ranked Kyle Lewis #1, but there is a real case to be made for Ray. They are really 1A and 1B at this point depending on what type of production you are looking for. While we are talking about draft prospects, my #3 ranked Draft Prospect, Zack Collins, launched another homer this week too, giving him 11 on the season.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – Little ole’ 3rd round pick Harrison Bader didn’t even need High-A, as he continued his assault on Double-A pitching this week, hitting another bomb (8) and stealing another base (6). If you haven’t checked out this excellent interview he gave to David Laurila over at Fangraphs, you should definitely give it read. My favorite part of the interview is where he talked about his hitting approach, and finished up by saying, “my primary goal is to make consistent hard contact.” That’s the attribute that made me so high on him to begin with, and if you hit the ball hard, the homers will come.

Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – Everyone can’t stop gushing over Moncada’s hitting ability, and for good reason, but he has been nothing short of elite with his legs this year too. He stole 5 more bases this week, and now has 30 steals in 40 games, being caught only 6 times. That brings his minor league career total to 79 steals on 88 attempts in 121 games. For some reason, I still can’t get that excited about him. Oh that’s right, it’s because I’m a Yankees fan, and can’t get over how we let him slip through our fingers. I think I am in the 2nd stage of grieving, which is anger. That means bargaining and depression are coming next. Fun stuff.

Victor Robles WASH, OF – Popped 2 more dingers this week, bringing his season total up to 5 homers in 39 games. The power is showing up faster than anybody expected, and he is doing it while maintaining a .340 AVG and 20/10 K/BB. His upside is so sky high that it has to ask Air Traffic Control for clearance.

A.J. Reed HOU, 1B – Reed got back in action last night, going 1 for 2 with a walk and a strikeout. With Tyler White struggling of late, Reed can reach the big leagues in a hurry if he can get hot. If he is still available to stash in your league, now is the time to grab him.

Blake Snell TB, LHP/Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Snell: 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BB, 9 K – Hader: 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 ER, 8 K. Just two of the best lefty pitching prospects in the game doing their thing.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP – The 19-year-old Urias threw another shutout this week, and he hasn’t given up an ER in 6 of his 8 starts this year in the PCL. He now sits comfortably as the best pitching prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, he has risen in the Dodgers system faster than his yearly IP totals could keep up, and he is likely to be used out of the Major League bullpen in order to trick his arm into thinking pitching 3-4 times per week is less stressful than just starting once every five games. Baseball teams just love to exploit that imaginary loophole.

Alex Reyes STL, RHP – Reyes made his season debut last night after being suspended for 50 games to start the season, and he dominated, going 4 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BB, 8K. He might never be able to paint the black, but when you throw 99 MPH, you really don’t have to. Definitely get Reyes back on your redraft stash radar.

Dillon Tate TEX, RHP/Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP/Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – This three headed monster will forever be linked after they were all taken in the top 10 of the 2015 Draft. Tate (1.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BB, 1K) and Fulmer (2.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 2 k) both threw up absolute stinkers in their last outing, while Jay (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BB, 6 K) kept rolling. Looks like Minnesota’s risk of taking a college reliever in Jay just might pay off.

Grant Holmes LAD, RHP – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 8 K in his start this week. He now holds a 9.6 K/9 and a 3.4 BB/9 in 42 IP at High-A. It’s nice to see his walk rate improve this year (4.7 BB/9 in 2015), but he’s been a bit more hittable, as well.

David Dahl COL, OF – 2 more homers and 2 more steals this week. Just another week at the office for one of the most exciting fantasy prospects in the game. The fact that he will get to play his home games at Coors Field almost makes my head want to explode.

J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – Promoted to Triple-A this week, where I’m sure he will continue to display his great, but thouroughly unexciting plate approach and moderate power/speed combo. I did still rank him 15th overall in the pre-season, and he can provide solid 5-category production at the SS position in the not too distant future.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Gallo returned to action in Grande fashion this week after being out with a groin strain, mashing a homer in his 3rd game back. You can expect him to continue to be prospect blocked, and if I were a Gallo owner, I would be hoping he gets traded away at the deadline. Edit: He was just called up by Texas! I guess the Rangers are going to find playing time for him wherever they can.

Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – Has really turned it up a notch this week at Double-A, slashing .357/.400/.536 with 2 homers. It is nice to see him getting the power stroke going a little bit, and he now has 4 homers and 10 steals in 43 games this season. I honestly have no idea what Atlanta’s plans are with him and Ozzie Albies.

Alex Bregman HOU, SS/3B – Bregman mentioned in an interview recently that he gained 20 pounds of muscle this off season. Combine that with the 10 bombs (3 this week) that he has hit this season in Double-A, and I’m starting to think the power explosion is definitely for real. I projected him for 15 homers in the preseason, which was on the high side from everything I read, but 20+ looks to be the new expectation now. He does have only 3 steals on the year, so he might have traded some speed for power.

Jorge Mateo NYY, SS ¬ Mateo has now been successful in his last 7 steal attempts, after struggling there early in the season. He also tacked on another homer this week, and is slashing .313/.369/.528, with 5 homers, and 15 steals in 41 games at High-A. If he can keep this production up when he gets moved to Double-A, his prospect stock will soar even higher than it already is.

Mitch Keller PIT, RHP – Keller has been long overdue to make the Rundown, as he has been one of the fastest risers among the pitcher ranks this season. After struggling with a forearm injury last season, he has been on fire to start 2016, putting up a dominant pitching line of 1.40/0.69/52 in 45 IP. He has walked 3 guys all season. He throws a low 90’s fastball, plus curveball, and a developing changeup. Considering the success that Pittsburgh has had with pitching prospects in the recent past, Keller has a good chance of cracking many top 100’s if he can keep up his success this season.

Daniel Mengden OAK, RHP – Mengden is another fast rising pitcher who is long overdue for the Rundown. After dominating for 23 IP in a pitcher’s park at Double-A, he has done just as well at Triple-A in the PCL, going 27 IP, 2 ER, 16 Hits, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts. He fastball was seen topping out at 98 MPH earlier this year, and he throws a solid curveball and changeup as well. Mengden has a good chance of joining Oakland’s rotation later this season.

Jacob Faria TB, RHP – After struggling with his control all year, it was nice to see Faria absolutely dominate in his last outing at Double-A, going 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hit, 0 BB, 11 K. His K/9 has looked great this season at 10.1, but the 4.9 BB/9 is concerning. Considering he hasn’t had major control issues in the past, I think he will figure it out, and his last start was definitely a step in that direction.

Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B – After returning from a hip injury, Bellinger was ice cold to start the season, but he has absolutely caught fire of late, smashing another homer last night, giving him 3 this week and 4 on the season in 22 games at Double-A. He was a Cal League superstar last year, smashing 30 dingers, so displaying that power at Double-A is nice to see. I ranked him 95th in the preseason, and if he keeps powering up, he will rise fast in the rankings.

Hunter Dozier KC, 3B – The 24-year-old Dozier is officially back on the prospect map, as he has dominated since getting called up to Triple-A. He hit 3 more homers this week, bringing his season triple-slash up to .309/.382/.625, with 12 homers, and 4 steals split between Double-A and Triple-A. If you have been holding Dozier since he was a hyped 8th overall pick in the 2013 Draft, it looks like your patience is finally beginning to pay off.

Hunter Renfroe SD, OF – It must be hunting season, because Hunter Renfroe has been killing it this week as well, crushing 3 homers, bringing his slash line up to .327/.355/.588, with 8 homers, and 3 steals at Triple-A. He should get the call to the bigs at some point later this season.

Ryan McMahon COL, 3B – Smacked homers in back-to-back games this week, and McMahon is finally starting to break out of his early season slump. He also struck out only once, and there are finally some positives to point to for McMahon owners to get excited about.

Chris Shaw SFG, 1B – Shaw’s coming out party continues, smashing 3 more homers this week (one inside the park), bringing his season total up to 10 homers in 39 games at High-A.

Eloy Jimenez CHC, OF – The 19-year-old Jimenez is starting to unleash that massive plus power that made him a hyped international signing back in 2013. He crushed 4 homers this week, giving him 6 on the season, to go along with a .327/.363/.526 triple-slash in 39 games at High-A. The time to scoop him is definitely now.

Phillip Ervin CIN, OF – The 27th overall pick in the 2013 Draft, Ervin is slashing .228/.347/.439, with 5 homers, and 17 steals in 36 games at Double-A. I like a bunch of the other deep sleepers who I wrote about in previous Rundowns more than Ervin, but he has the kind of power/speed combo that is worth keeping an eye on in case he can even moderately improve his hit tool. He doesn’t have major strikeout issues, and he knows how to take a walk, so I don’t think hoping for improvement there is a bad bet.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: 1-5

The 2016 MLB Draft will be held on June 9, 2016, and for fantasy baseball, that means a huge influx of talent is about to join the player pool. Leading up to the draft, I will be ranking the top players for fantasy, and writing about anything that might catch my eye in general, like deep sleepers. Keep in mind that value can change post-draft depending on what team/ballpark a player gets drafted to. For an extreme example, you should upgrade hitters drafted by Colorado and downgrade pitchers. How players perform once reaching pro ball can also have a big impact on their value. With all that in mind, here are the Top 5 2016 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospects:

2016 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: Complete Top 30

1) Kyle Lewis Mercer, OF – Elite bat speed, power, and athleticism is just about all that you can ask for in a top fantasy prospect, and Lewis possesses all three. The 6’4’’, 195-pound Lewis has jacked 17 homers in back-to-back years, and he is triple-slashing .419/.547/.753 in 53 games in the Southern Conference this season, a middle of the pack D1 conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if that 195-pound weight is outdated, though, because Lewis is built like a solid rock, and when he steps up to the plate, he does so with bad intentions. Just check out this quick video to see the talent we are dealing with here. There are a lot of moving parts in his swing, and he is still a bit raw, but I don’t even think those things are negatives. He is only 20 years old, and if he is this good already, imagine how scary good he can be with continued refinement and improvement. Lewis is the guy I want with the top pick in fantasy drafts.

2) Corey Ray Louisville, OF – Ray presents the best power/speed combo in the draft, as he is slashing .327/.400/.583, with 13 homers, and 36 steals in 53 games in the ACC, one of the best conferences in D1. He has top end bat speed, athleticism, and base running ability, and he is a 5-category producer who is bound to hit atop a Major League lineup in a few short years. He doesn’t have the physicality of Lewis, but considering the tougher competition he has faced, and more well-rounded production, I can see a case for Ray being #1 overall, as well.

3) Zack Collins Miami, C – Collins smashed 11 homers as a 19-year-old freshman in the ACC in 2014, and he has kept raking since then. He is slashing a ridiculous .379/.555/.641, with 10 homers in 48 games this season, and there are no questions about his advanced bat. The only question is if the 6’3’’, 225 pound Collins can stick at catcher, but for fantasy, that would just be icing on the cake. Being able to mash is much more important, and he can obviously mash. Ignore his relatively low ranking on real baseball draft lists, because defense actually matters in real baseball, but in fantasy, not so much. Collins is the type of fast moving college hitter who can pay dividends for your fantasy team very quickly.

4) Will Craig Wake Forrest, 1B/3B – Craig is another “unathletic,” poor defensive player who just destroys the highest levels of D1. He has blindingly fast bat speed, and is triple-slashing .417/.551/.826 with 13 homers in 40 games in the ACC. He also leads all of D1 in slugging percentage. At 6’3’’, 235 pounds, Craig has been criticized for his soft body and speed that you can time with a sundial, but actually being able to hit is much more important than just looking the part; Craig is in the mold a Lance Berkman. Once again, ignore the low ranking on real draft lists due to his defensive concerns, Craig should be treated as one of the top hitters in this draft class for fantasy baseball.

5) Riley Pint HS, RHP – If I’m taking a risky high schooler, I’m going all the way, and taking the riskiest of them all. Pint has by far the most electrifying stuff in the draft (skip to the 45 second mark), and it is not just his upper 90’s heater with great movement, but also his excellent, deceptive changeup. His biggest problems are that his delivery is a bit of a mess, and his control and command are all over the place, but safe high school pitcher is an oxymoron to me, anyway. The 6’4’’, 210-pound Pint has raw ability that you can’t teach, and after the top 4 college bats are off the board, I want the player with the highest upside and most freakish talent.
2016 MLB Draft Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings: Complete Top 30

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 6

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 6:

Blake Snell TB, LHP – I predicted in last week’s rundown that Snell was going to be fine, and he was fine, going 10.1 IP, 4 ER, 13 Hits, 2 BB, 16 K in his two starts this week. Correctly predicting that one of the best pitching prospects in the game would be fine is the kind of hard hitting analysis that you can expect to get around here at Imaginary Brick Wall.

Chase Vallot KC, C – Bat speed, power, and strikeouts make for some of my favorite prospect sleepers (remember Trevor Story?), and the 19-year-old Vallot checks all of those boxes. The 40th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Vallot crushed 13 homers in 80 games at Single-A last season, and he is off to a strong start this season, slashing .279/.391/.529, with 6 homers, and a 43/16 K/BB in 31 games. Here is a scouting video of him in high school displaying that super quick bat speed, and here is a video of him absolutely crushing a homer earlier this year. He is built like a brick shit house, and even if he doesn’t stick at catcher, I feel pretty confident in saying Vallot is going to continue to hit the ball very hard when he isn’t striking out. He is a great deep league sleeper.

Ronald Guzman TEX, 1B – The Rangers paid the 6’5’’, 205 pound Guzman $3.5 million back in 2011, and it is just now starting to pay off in a big way. Guzman is slashing .319/.382/.529, with 5 homers, and a 29/10 K/BB in 32 games at Double-A this season. He has a sweet lefty swing and has always had a reputation for being a pure hitter. He doesn’t have huge power right now, but I don’t think it is a stretch to assume it will come as he continues to age and get stronger. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see Nomar Mazara-lite here, and Guzman is another excellent deep league sleeper.

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – Looks like Greg Maddux in one start, and then Rick Ankiel the next. His BB line in 7 starts this season reads 3,0,3,1,5,1, 5. Because I consistently score above 140 on those free online IQ tests, I know that the next number in the sequence will probably be a low one.

Jameson Taillon PIT, RHP – Got those K’s going again this week, striking out 11 batters in 6 IP, and if you haven’t heard already, word on the internet street is that Taillon is first in line to get the call.

Derek Fisher HOU, OF – I told you to buy low on Fisher two weeks ago in my Top 3 Buy Low Dynasty Prospects article, and I hoped you listened, because Fisher crushed 5 homers since then, and it brings his season line to .248/.354/.504, with 8 homers, and 4 steals in 34 games at Double-A. I ranked him 20th overall in my preseason top 100 , and considering there is still not much hype around him, you might be able to buy him at a reasonable price.

Tim Anderson CHW, SS – Anderson was another player who I touted in that Buy Low column, and he has been scorching hot since then as well. He hit .438/.471/.750 this week with homers in back-to-back-to-back games, and he is now hitting .276 on the season, with 3 homers, and 8 steals in 33 games at Triple-A. By the way, the third guy I wrote about in that buy low column was Lewis Brinson, and he is still struggling. You know what to do. Unless you believe in the law of averages and think I’m due to get one wrong, then maybe you don’t know what to do.

Alex Bregman HOU, SS/3B – Meet Houston’s new 3B of the future. Here is an excellent article by Brian McTaggart at MLB.com on how the transition is going so far, and what Houston’s thinking and strategy with Bregman has been from the beginning of the year.

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – Benintendi knocked out High-A pitching worse than Rougned Odor just knocked the hell out of Jose Bautista. Only difference is that Benintendi is getting a promotion and Odor is getting a suspension. He’ll be in Double-A starting today.

Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Threw another gem this week. Reports have been positive about his secondary offerings, and he has maintained the increased velocity that he found in the Arizona Fall League, consistently sitting in the mid 90’s. Hader is one of the best pitching prospects in the game.

Kyle Zimmer KC, RHP – Got back in action last week and is slowly building his pitch count up. In his two brief appearances, he has stuck out nine and walked four in 4.2 IP. If he can remain healthy, the Royals are sure to find a role for the 24-year-old Zimmer on the big league club this year, preferably as a starter, but he can be elite out of the bullpen, as well.

Willie Calhoun LAD, 2B – Willie is on fire this week, slashing .400/.455/.600, and he is finally showing flashes of that special hitting ability that he displayed in 2015. Maybe including him in my Top 100 Fantasy Prospect Fallers post that I wrote last week has lit a fire under his ass. And yes, me and Willie are on a first name basis now after how many times I have written about him since February.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Just when it looked like he was getting it together, Fulmer threw up an absolute dud this week (4 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 8 BB, 3 K). I covered him in my Top 100 Fallers post, as well.

Josh Ockimey BOS, 1B – Ockimey made this prophetic tweet on February 4, and now the rest of the prospect watching world knows too, that this is the year of the Ockimey. He triple-slashed .333/.412/.733 this week, bringing his season line to .300/.442/.600, with 7 homers, and a 32/28 K/BB in 31 games at Single-A. He is turning himself into the type of power hitting prospect you have to love for fantasy.

Christin Stewart DET, OF – Stewart has kept raking since I wrote about him in week 4, smashing 4 more homers this week, and it brings his season total up to 13 homers with a .979 OPS in 37 games at High-A. The time is definitely now to start making moves on him, if you haven’t already.

Tom Murphy COL, C – Hit another bomb this week, and is now slashing .300/.323/.733 with 2 homers in 8 games at Triple-A. There is a reason I ranked him the 31st overall prospect in my top 100.

Max Kepler MIN, OF – Was off to a bit of a slow start this year, but he turned it on this week, slashing .444/.565/.611. His excellent plate approach and K/BB have translated just fine to Triple-A.

Kyle Tucker HOU, OF – I probably should have included Tucker in my Top 100 Fantasy Prospect Risers post last week, as he has looked solid all year at Single-A, and is now slashing .328/.403/.438 with a 28/16 K/BB in 34 games. The power hasn’t been great with only 1 homer, but he has stolen 16 bags, and the hit tool is more important for his development right now anyway. I ranked him 89th in my preseason top 100, and the arrow is certainly pointing up.

Luis Ortiz TEX, RHP – Things are also looking up for Texas’ big right hander. The 30th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Ortiz spun a 1-hit gem this week, and has a 2.60/1.05/28 in 27.2 IP pitching line at High-A this year. I would have ranked him higher in the preseason if he hadn’t suffered a forearm injury last year limiting him to only 50 IP, but if he stays healthy this year, he will be firing up prospect lists everywhere.

Gleyber Torres CHC, SS – Torres has been red hot these past few weeks, bringing his triple-slash up to .252/.340/.425, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 33 games at High-A. The slow start is no more.

Franklin Barreto OAK, SS – The 20-year-old Barreto started on the slow start watch list, then I took him off after a hot week, and now he is back on again. He has gone ice cold of late, and is now slashing .235/.288/.331, with 3 homers, and 9 steals at Double-A. He is still very young for the level, and is playing in an extreme pitcher’s park, so things aren’t as bad as his hitting line suggests.

Forrest Wall COL, 2B – Since I wrote about Wall’s hot start in week 2, he has been anything but, and his season line at High-A has now dropped to .231/.321/.325, with 1 homer, and 7 steals. He was also placed on the 7-day DL on May 11. When it rains it pours.

Edwin Diaz SEA, RHP – Will be permanently moved to the bullpen, because whenever you can give up on your upper 90’s throwing, 9.4 K/9 stud 22-year-old starting pitching prospect, that is move you just have to make.

Dylan Cozens PHI, OF – Mashed 3 dingers this week, and the 6’,6’’, 235 pound Cozens is now slashing .287/.368/.581, with 10 homers, and 9 steals in 36 games at Double-A. He has a bit of a long swing, and struggles with hard stuff on the inner third of the plate, but he has still been long overdue to make the Rundown. Better late than never.

Mike Soroka ATL, RHP – Bounced back nicely this week (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BB, 5 K) after a rough outing the week before (4 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BB, 3 K). His season line now sits at 1.96/1.01/37 in 36.2 IP. If you want to read a more in depth scouting report on Soroka, Benjamin Chase over at Tomahawk Take had a great up to date report on him last week.

Drew Ward WASH, 3B –A 3rd round pick in the 2013 draft, Ward is finally putting his plus raw power to good use this year, slashing .305/.399/.547, with 7 homers, and a 37/17 K/BB in 34 games at High-A. Scouts have doubts that he can stick at 3B, but he is a bat first prospect who should be on your radar in deeper prospect leagues.

Tyler Viza PHI, RHP – We are going super deep now. The 21-year-old Viza always had good stuff, and it is starting to translate into good results this season, as he is dominating High-A in the early going (35.2 IP, 7 ER, 35 Hits, 6 BB, 36 K). He throws a strong 5-pitch mix with a fastball that sits between 91-94 MPH. Viza likely tops out as a mid-rotation starter, but he is an interesting pitcher prospect in super deep leagues. At the very least, remember the name.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Fallers

If you missed my post yesterday, I started with the good news, and wrote about the Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers. Today comes the bad news. It should (but won’t) go without saying that it is still very early in the season, and a few hot weeks can change things in a hurry. For most of the players on this list, it is really more of an admission that I was probably a little too high on them to begin with. Here are the early season top 100 fantasy prospect fallers:

Graduates: Corey Seager (#1) LAD, SS, Byron Buxton (#2) MIN, OF, Steven Matz (#10) NYM, LHP, Nomar Mazara (#19) TEX, OF (25 AB until official), Trevor Story (#30) COL, SS, John Lamb (#40) CIN, LHP, Jon Gray (#100) COL, RHP

Fallers

Carson Fulmer (#28) CHW, RHP – After a disastrous first two starts, it seemed like Fulmer was getting his season back on track with four solid starts in row. That was until his start this week, where he went 4 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 8 BB, 3 K. I was very high on Fulmer coming into this season due to the prolific strikeout numbers that he put up at Vanderbilt last year (167 K in 127.2 IP), but I overlooked his control issues (3.52 BB/9), which is rearing its ugly head right now. I still like Fulmer’s K potential, but I was too aggressive ranking him in the top 30 with such little professional experience. He moves down into top 50-ish territory.

Alen Hanson (#33) PIT, 2B – When I released my top 100 way back on February 2, I thought Hanson had the inside track on the 2B base job until Jung-ho Kang returned from injury. But despite a strong spring training, Hanson was sent back down to Triple-A to start the year, where he has struggled with the bat in the early going, slashing .273/.296/.391, with 2 homers, and 6 steals in 25 games. Pittsburgh has also been playing him in the OF to increase his versatility, in what I can only assume is a prelude to a utility bench role in his first couple of years in the bigs. Hanson is still knocking on the door of the majors, and the talent is still enticing, but the slow start and lack of clear path to playing time has him dropping towards the back of the top 50.

Willie Calhoun (#42) LAD, 2B – The 21-year-old Calhoun’s spot on this list probably has more to do with my aggressive ranking of him in the preseason, than it does with his lackluster 124 AB’s at Double-A. But lackluster is exactly what they are, as he is slashing .234/.296/.363 with just 2 homers. There are signs of life, however, as he has hit .333/.440/.429 in the last week, and I don’t believe the guy who just jacked 31 homers in Junior College and lit the minors on fire last year completely forgot how to hit. Even still, I can’t deny that his early season struggles has him moving down into top 60 range for now.

Ryan McMahon (#49) COL, 3B – McMahon is another 21-year-old slugger who has been slowed down by Double-A. He is slashing a measly .233/.339/.330, with no homers, and 7 steals in 29 games. His K% has increased all the way to 29.4% and his ISO has dropped to .097. Considering his career high in homers has only been 18, and the strikeout problems don’t seem to be going away, not even Coors Field is going to be able to save McMahon from dropping. He slots somewhere in the top 70.

Jacob Nottingham (#72) MIL, C – Nottingham came out of nowhere last year and put together a huge breakout season, but he has turned back into a pumpkin so far this year. He is triple-slashing .210/.269/.290, with 2 homers, and 2 steals in 27 games at Double-A. Considering his future at the catcher position is still in doubt, the offensive struggles has him sliding down toward the bottom of the top 100.

Matt Olson (#74) OAK, 1B/OF – I gave Olson a semi pass after his uninspiring season in a pitcher’s park at Double-A last year, but he is struggling even worse right now in the PCL. He is slashing .163/.294/.306 with only 3 homers in 31 games, and for a 1B who will be playing in Oakland’s spacious ballpark, the slow start might have him falling out of the top 100 completely. Oakland has been playing him in the OF more this season in an attempt to increase his value.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers

Over one month of the Minor League season is in the books, and it is time to take a look at some of the notable fantasy baseball prospect risers from my preseason Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. This list does not include players that were unranked, but have now cracked the top 100. I’ll have a separate post for them next week. Players like Bobby Bradley (#18) and Josh Hader (#21) are both off to excellent starts, but they are not included in this write-up, either, because I was so high on them to begin with. Andrew Benintendi (#8), Trea Turner (#23), Dansby Swanson (#25), and Alex Bregman (#26) are also not included for similar reasons. Enough with the small talk, here are the early season top 100 fantasy baseball prospect risers:

Graduates: Corey Seager (#1) LAD, SS, Byron Buxton (#2) MIN, OF, Steven Matz (#10) NYM, LHP, Nomar Mazara (#19) TEX, OF (25 AB until official), Trevor Story (#30) COL, SS, John Lamb (#40) CIN, LHP, Jon Gray (#100) COL, RHP

Risers

Brendan Rodgers (#24) COL, SS – The 3rd overall pick in the 2015 draft, Rodgers played well in his professional debut at Rookie ball (.273/.340/.420), but didn’t exactly dominate. The raw talent was huge and the scouting reports glowing, so while I wanted to be a little cautious coming into the season, I didn’t want to be too cautious. I was too cautious. Rodgers is straight beasting Single-A right now, slashing .363/.429/.637, with 7 homers, and 2 steals in 28 games, and it easily launches him into the top 10, maybe even into the conversation for #1 overall.

Victor Robles (#35) WASH, OF – Triple-slashed .352/.445/.507, with 4 homers, and 24 steals in 61 games splitting time between Rookie ball and Low-A in 2015. The scouts loved him so much it almost seemed like they had to physically restrain themselves in their write-ups of him. I trusted the huge numbers and the universal praise, and ended up ranking him relatively high. I wasn’t high enough. The 18-year-old Robles is doing exactly the same thing in full season ball this year (.345/.434/.500) and the restraints are now completely off when writing about this kid. He is one of the premiere prospects in the game, and moves right into the top 10 with Rodgers.

David Dahl (#47) COL, OF – Injuries have been a recurring problem in Dahl’s young career, and it resulted in a subpar season in 2015. He has always been a tooled up player, and he will call Coors Field his home, so he still cracked my top 50 in the preseason. This season has been a completely different story, as he is healthy and those tools are translating to monstrous numbers at Double-A, where he is slashing .280/.375/.602, with 9 homers, and 11 steals. I even graced him with the nickname Double-D a few weeks ago, because of the enhanced power he is displaying this season. Dahl is a top 20 prospect right now.

Harrison Bader (#51) STL, OF – One would have thought I was already absurdly high on Bader, seeing that not a single other prospect list even had him ranked, but gosh darnit, I was actually too low. He cranked 2 more homers on Tuesday, and his slash line at Double-A sits at a silly .379/.425/.605, with 7 bombs, and 4 steals. Bader moves up to somewhere in the top 30.

Jameson Taillon (#86) PIT, RHP – Nobody had any idea of what to expect from Taillon after not pitching for two full seasons coming off Tommy John Surgery, but we know what to expect now, and that expectation is dominance. He is running circles around Triple-A hitters in the early going, putting up a line of 1.69/0.78/32 in 37.1 IP. I would still like to see how his arm holds up the deeper into the season we go, but there is no doubt that Taillon is flying up the rankings. He sits comfortably within the top 30.

Ian Happ (#50) CHC, 2B/OF – I was debating whether or not I wanted to include Happ on this list, as he is definitely a riser, but has cooled off considerably since I wrote about him in my Week 3 rundown. He is striking out a lot at High-A, and hasn’t displayed huge power or speed, either. Having said that, he is still slashing .287/.393/.470, with 4 homers, and 5 steals in 31 games, and has a decent chance of maintaining 2B eligibility in some capacity once he reaches the big leagues. Happ will certainly move into the top 40.

Ozhaino Albies (#75) ATL, SS – Albies is a riser based almost solely on the fact he is moving through Atlanta’s system far quicker than I could have anticipated. He was an 18-year-old in Single-A putting up nice numbers last year, and now he is all of a sudden knocking on the door of the big leagues, after dominating Double-A and being promoted to Triple-A. My original projection on him hasn’t changed, but his ETA has, and Albies sits somewhere in my top 40.

Matt Chapman (#94) OAK, 3B – The question in the off season was how many of those 23 homers in 80 games at High-A were for real, and how many were Cal League inflated? We now know that they were all very real. Every single one of them. Playing in a pitcher’s park at Double-A this season, Chapman has mashed 9 dingers in 32 games, and has a .903 OPS. He is becoming one of the very best power hitting prospects in the game, and jumps all the way into the top 50.

Tyler O’Neill (#78) SEA, OF – Like Bader, O’Neill was another player who I was extremely high on compared to other prospect lists, and like Bader, I was still too low. O’Neill has been cruising through Double-A this season, triple-slashing .322/.383/.557, with 6 homers, and 2 steals in 29 games. His K% is down a bit, and his BB% is up a bit. Most importantly, he is still hitting the crap out of the ball when he makes contact. He is a top 50 prospect.

Renato Nunez (#73) OAK, 3B – Nunez can just flat out hit. He has elite bat speed, plus raw power, and has put up good numbers at every level. He has continued that this season at Triple-A, slashing .284/.341/.526 with 6 homers in 31 games. He currently plays 3B, but will likely end up at 1B or DH. I probably should have been higher on Nunez in the preseason, and he easily cracks the top 50.

Cody Reed (#65) CIN, LHP – Another riser who I probably should have been higher on in the preseason. The 6’5’’, 225-pound Reed throws a big fastball and a nasty slider that has K upside written all over it. He is off to a great start at Triple-A (24.2 IP, 4 ER, 16 Hits, 5 BB, 25 K) and has a direct path to the majors. Welcome to the top 50, Cody Reed.

Brent Honeywell (#71) TB, RHP – The 21-year-old Honeywell’s dominance in a pitcher’s league at High-A isn’t all that surprising, but it is too much to ignore. He has put up a pitching line of 1.30/0.84/46 in 41.2 IP, and while I don’t think this has him flying up the rankings, the performance deserves to be recognized. He easily moves into the top 60, and possibly top 50.

Tyler Jay (#98) MIN, LHP – Jay was a total unknown coming into this season, with Minnesota converting him from a reliever into a starter. There have been a few bumps along the road, but his season line now stands at 3.03/1.19/30 in 32.2 IP at High-A, and he hasn’t given up an ER in his last two starts, striking out 13 batters in 13.1 IP. His BB/9 also sits at a respectable 2.8 on the season. I’ve seen enough to move him into the top 60.

*2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Fallers coming tomorrow

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 5

Every Monday, I will be running down some of the notable performances from around the Minor Leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is the 2016 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Week 5:

Byron Buxton MIN, OF – Turned it on for real this week, hitting his first three homers of the season. He’s now slashing .276/.344/.534 at Triple-A, and it looks like whatever had to be corrected with his swing has been corrected. If I were a betting man (I am), I would bet a lot of money that he will not hit like a little leaguer when he gets called back up.

Chris Shaw SF, 1B – In the comments section of my Finding the Next A.J. Reed article, “The Baltimoron” mentioned Chris Shaw could be an underrated breakout candidate as well. And boy was he right, as Shaw is crushing it at High-A, slashing .337/.402/.615 with 6 homers. You modest bastard you, “The Baltimoron,” more like “The Baltigenius.”

Yoan Moncada BOS, 2B – The power is starting to come around, as Moncada launched his first three homers of the season this week, and is slashing .317/.450/.510 with 19 steals in 28 games at High-A. With Corey Seager and Buxton officially losing their prospect eligibility, Moncada is probably in a battle with Julio Urias to be the #1 fantasy prospect in the game right now.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP – Speaking of which, there have been rumors the Dodgers may call up Urias to pitch out of the pen this season, because when has rushing a 19-year-old pitching prodigy, with less than 100 IP above A-ball, to pitch out of the bullpen ever backfired on a team?

Brendan Rodgers COL, SS – A legitimate argument can be made that Rodgers is the top fantasy prospect right now too. He is treating Single-A pitchers like cable companies treat their customers, completely bulldozing them to the tune of .358/.421/.642, with 7 homers, and 2 steals in 27 games. I doubt High-A will cause him many problems, either.

Jose De Leon LAD, RHP – Didn’t take long for De Leon to remind me of why I ranked him the 14th overall fantasy prospect coming into this season, as he went 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, and 9 K’s in his first of the year. His K upside is as good or better as any pitcher in the minors.

Carson Fulmer CHW, RHP – Fulmer has looked a lot better after his terrible first two starts, and he further solidified himself this week with a 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BB, 7 K performance. His fastball command was giving him trouble in the early going, which he blamed on being too amped up. If you have ever watched Fulmer pitch, you know his intensity is always dialed up to 11, so that is quite believable. If he keeps pitching well, it is not out of the question for him to force his way into Chicago’s rotation later this season. I would have him on my radar as a deeper league redraft stash.

Lucas Giolito WASH, RHP – Fulmer’s command issues have now been passed on to Giolito, and we unfortunately have to add Giolito to the slow start watch list. After four very mediocre starts to begin the season, he threw up an absolute disaster this week, going 3 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BB, 4 K. It has only been 18.2 IP, and I’m sure he will eventually find his rhythm and turn it around.

Blake Snell TB, LHP – Well, this will teach teams to call up their stud prospects for spot starts with no intention of keeping them up, and at Yankee Stadium to boot. Snell has lost all control and command since being sent back down, and I have to believe it is a just an issue of losing focus after getting back on that minor league bus and $25 per diem grind. He’ll be fine.

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP/Jameson Taillon PIT, RHP – Glasnow: 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 11 K – Taillon: 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 3 K. It is literally a full blown arms race to see who gets the call first.

Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – Promotion to Double-A hasn’t slowed Swanson down at all, as he is slashing .310/.444/.517 in his first 8 games at the level. He still has only 3 homers in 51 career minor leagues games, and he is not considered a burner, so I’m not sure the hot start moves the needle much in either direction. I ranked him 25th overall in the off season, and he is a good fantasy prospect, but he may never develop that big power or speed. Considering he is also contending with Ozzie Albies to be Atlanta’s SS of the future, I would be sniffing out some sell high opportunities right now.

Trea Turner WASH, SS, – Who needs a stud 22-year-old SS slashing .321/.391/.455, with 2 homers, and 12 steals at Triple-A, when you have a .200 hitting Danny Espinosa and .143 hitting Stephen Drew tearing it up in the majors? 2022 is probably much more important. To be fair to Washington, Turner does have 5 errors in only 26 games, and there have been more than a few scouts who have suggested he is better off at 2B long term. For now, I would still assume we see Turner in the big leagues by July at the latest.

J.P. Crawford PHI, SS – The only thing to note about Crawford’s start to the season is how there is remarkably little to note about it. He is just doing what he does best, controlling the strike zone, and displaying his moderate power/speed combo.

Austin Meadows PIT, OF – Triple-slashing .177/.255/.195 in his first 11 games at Double-A. It’s almost like fracturing the orbital bone in his right eye has negatively affected his hitting.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – I’m seriously not trying to write about Bader in every rundown, but he keeps topping his performance from the previous week and it makes it hard not to. He put up a .407 batting average this week, struck out only 14% of the time, and is 2/2 in stolen base attempts since May 1. The K% and steals were both areas of concern even with his scorching start. The arrow continues to point up.

Paul DeJong STL, 3B – Went on a homer binge this week like I binge on Netflix and Chinese food. He has hit 5 homers in May, bringing his season total up to, um, 5. He hit 9 dingers last year splitting time between Rookie ball and Single-A, and ho hum, St. Louis has another underrated hitting prospect who they scooped in the 4th round of last year’s draft.

Tom Murphy COL, C – Murphy finally got his season underway after being out with the dreaded, lingering oblique injury, and he wasted no time in showing why I loved him so much, smashing a homer in his second game back. Nick Hundley is currently dealing with an oblique injury of his own, and it may open a door for Murphy to make an impact this season if he keeps playing well. The oblique giveth and taketh away.

Willson Contreras CHC, C – Contreras has already been displaying his elite plate approach and contact skills in the early going at Triple-A, and now he has added some power as well. He hit his first two homers of the year this week, and he remains one of the very best fantasy catcher prospects in the game.

Brad Zimmer CLE, OF – Power, speed, and K’s galore. The 6 homers and 11 steals in 27 games is drool worthy, but striking out 31% of the time as 23-year-old in Double-A is concerning. I’m starting to think his batting average will be closer to .250 than .270.

Aaron Judge NYY, OF – After treading water for most of the season, Judge Dredd lived up to his nickname by crushing 3 homers this week, bringing his season total up to 6. He also still has a 27% K%. I think we are definitively starting to see the player Judge is/will become, a low average, high K power hitter with very good, but not elite power.

Gary Sanchez NYY, C – The Sanchize (Mark Sanchez has really ruined that nickname forever, huh) has also started to mash this week, going deep 3 times. He is slashing .283/.336/.566, with 5 homers, and 2 steals in 24 games at Triple-A. Considering he plays in an extreme pitcher’s park, the line looks even more impressive.

Brett Phillips MIL, OF – Phillips must have heard me when I was talking shit about his power potential in last week’s rundown, as he cranked 4 homers this week, and hit 3 in one game! Needless to say, the power is looking better now.

Raimel Tapia COL, OF – Finally got it going this week, slashing .304/.360/.652, with 2 homers, and 1 steal at Double-A. Time to take him off the slow start watch list.

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS – Remember when I said it might be time to start getting excited about Mondesi? Well, it wasn’t time, as his season line has now fallen to .230/.280/.440, with 5 homers, and 11 steals in 24 games at Double-A. He is still flashing that tantalizing power and speed, so we just have to stay patient.

Tyler Jay MIN, LHP – Got back on track this week (6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BB, 7 K) after getting hammered by the Hammerheads last week. It’s a good sign to see him bouncing back after rough starts.

Brent Honeywell TB, RHP – Just keeps dominating High-A hitters. I was questioning whether I should have even included him in the rundown because his dominance is getting kinda mundane at this point.

Jose Pujols PHI, OF – The 20-year-old Pujols has always had huge raw power and plus bat speed, but it is just now starting to show up in games. He hit 3 homers this week, and that gives him 7 homers on the season in 27 games at Single-A. He is striking out 33% of the time, but he is still an intriguing deep league power prospect.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 3 Buy Low Dynasty League Prospects

It is that time of year when the vultures begin to circle. They act like they are your best friend, just out for your team’s best interest, but all the while, they are plotting and planning on how to pry your most valuable assets away from you. I am not here to judge, though. I am here to help both vulture and prey, alike. For the vultures, here are the top 3 buy low Dynasty League prospects that you should be zeroing in on, and for the prey, these are the guys that you should be holding close to your vest:

Lewis Brinson TEX, OF – Brinson is off to a good, but not great start in his first 20 games at Double-A this season, slashing .284/.325/.486, with 2 homers, and 4 steals. These numbers don’t present your typical buy low scenario, but he is coming off a season where he put up a 1.004 OPS, and finished the year in Triple-A slashing .433/.541/.567 in 37 PA. Nomar Mazara is also getting all the hype right now. Point being, Brinson owners might be getting an itchy trigger finger, ready to cash this trade chip in at a reasonable price. He got off to a “slow” start last April, as well, slashing .275/.359/.435, with 2 homers, and 4 steals. Plus, his K% is all the way down to 12.5% this season, which has been a weakness of his in the past. And he is still just 21 years old. There is almost no doubt Brinson is about to turn it up another notch any moment now.

Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Many people were not all that high on Fisher to begin with, so now that he is off to a slow start at Double-A, slashing .200/.340/.388, with 3 homers, and 2 steals, you might be able steal Fisher away from his owner for a song. Although, I wouldn’t literally offer a song, because you likely suck at singing. His K% has improved slightly, his BB% is way up, and his ISO is about the same as last season. The biggest difference is his BABIP, which has dropped all the way down to .237 this season. In other words, he has simply been unlucky so far, and luck has a way of evening out.

Tim Anderson CHW, SS – I’m not going to sugarcoat it, Anderson has been awful to start the year, and there isn’t anything to point to in his underlying stats to say he is bound to turn it around. This is just a gut call based on anecdotal evidence and belief in his raw talent. Anderson missed about a week earlier this season with a sprained wrist, and he was ice cold upon his return. He has recently shown signs of life, though, putting up a .292 batting average in the last seven days. Considering the natural hitting ability he displayed in the past, my bet is that the further away he gets from that wrist injury, the better he will hit. And with Jimmy Rollins not doing much of anything at the Major League level, we might see Anderson take over the White Sox SS job sooner rather than later.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)