My Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are done with 5×5 AVG leagues in mind, so I wanted to make rankings that represent leagues where power and OBP are favored, and speed is devalued. These are those rankings. Here is the OBP/OPS/PTS Top 1,000 2021 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

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Notes on the Rankings:

-What I had in mind during the rankings process is a points league I play in that values good real life hitters, devalues speed, and doesn’t juice up pitcher values. It still isn’t a perfect ranking (is there such thing as a perfect dynasty ranking?), but I believe it is helpful in a universal sense for category leagues too that play with OBP, or add in a 6th or 7th hitting category.

-Juan Soto claims the top spot.

-The biggest risers were unsurprisingly high walk rate sluggers with low (or low-ish) batting averages (Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Rizzo, Cavan Biggio, Joey Gallo, Michael Conforto, Max Muncy, Ian Happ).

-On the flip side, low walk rate and speed first players all took hits (Adalberto Mondesi, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, Starling Marte).

-Freddy Peralta jumps over 50 spots in the rankings, not because of the format, but because damn did he look unhittable with 7 K’s in 2.2 IP in his last spring outing.

-The deeper into the rankings, the less things change based on the format. For prospects, at a certain point I want to take the most talented player, rather than get too cute with projecting category production multiple years out. For MLB guys it is about players who I think have a better shot at playing time, even if another player’s skillset may fit the format better. But there are still plenty of adjustments throughout the entire list.

Click here for the Top 473 2021 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Only Rankings
Click here for the Top 100 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

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1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 22.5 – Career low 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 4.3 degree launch angle, but it didn’t stop Soto from nabbing 6 bags and cranking 13 homers in 47 games. Only thing that could stop him was a positive Covid test that delayed the start of his season until August 5th, and even that he quickly beat with 3 rapid result antigen tests and claims it was a false positive. 2021 Projection: 112/36/109/.309/.431/.596/11

2) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – I’m a glutton for homers and steals (and Chinese food), and Acuna ranks ahead of Soto in both departments. There is risk Acuna eventually turns into a 3 true outcome slugger as he whiffed at a career high 29.9% rate, pulled the ball a career high 43% of the time, launched the ball a career high 18.6 degrees, and swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone, which is why Juan Soto is the no doubt #1 overall pick in almost anything other than standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 124/42/98/.271/.384/.570/30

3) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – New exit velocity King with a whopping 95.9 MPH average, knocking Aaron Judge off the throne after a 4 year run, but major improvements in K% (down 5.9% to 23.7%) is the main reason Tatis is in the conversation for the top overall pick. 2021 Projection: 108/36/101/.279/.367/.563/25

4) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 29.8 – Stole a single base on two attempts in 53 games. Still plenty fast but did slow down slightly with a career low 4.33 home plate to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 111/44/105/.288/.417/.603/10

5) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019.  It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22

6) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. Update: Underwent surgery to repair a dislocated right shoulder. I originally had him ranked 5th but the separation is so razer thin at the top, the injury is enough to knock him down 2 spots. He is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. 2021 Projection: 100/39/101/.273/.368/.570/14

7) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 28.6 – Career bests in K%, BB%, exit velocity, and launch angle, all while stealing 8 bags in 58 games. Unlucky .268 BA (.307 xBA) kept Harper’s overall value from absolutely exploding. 2021 Projection: 106/38/104/.270/.397/.535/16

8) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 28.6 – Increased launch angle every single year of his 6 year career which led to Ramirez crushing 17 homers in 58 games with a 23.2 degree launch angle. The power gains wouldn’t have been possible without the 2.3 MPH jump in FB/LD exit velocity, now sitting at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 2021 Projection: 105/35/103/.276/.370/.557/23

9) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Strikeout rate spiked to a career high 30.8%, partly because he became a more patient hitter (career high 18.6% BB%), but also because he simply swung and missed at a career worst rate (33.6% Whiff%). Whiff% was elevated in 2019 as well (28.2% after sitting around 23% the rest of his career), so this looks to be a trend. 2021 Projection: 107/33/99/.282/.383/.546/16

10) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Turned his fastball into a dominant pitch, upping the velocity 1 MPH to 94.1 MPH and spin rate 100 revolutions to 2354 revolutions per minute. It led to a 12% increase in whiff rate on the pitch. 2020 erased any doubt that Bieber is a true ace. 2021 Projection: 16/3.03/1.06/259 in 202 IP

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

I would have assumed a crisis like this, taken straight out of an Outbreak movie, would have resulted in my email and phone being inundated with messages from friends and family seeing if I was OK … nope. The reality is I’m getting crushed with long email chains from members of my dynasty leagues panicking about draft dates and how this changes the value of certain players. I now know who will really be there for me when shit hits the fan! The season will be delayed for two weeks at the minimum. Here is who benefits the most from the Coronavirus:

CLICK HERE FOR THE UPDATED 2020 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
CLICK HERE FOR MY PODCAST ON THE TOP 100 PROSPECTS
CLICK HERE FOR MY PODCAST ON THE TOP 20 DYNASTY PLAYERS

Justin Verlander HOU, RHP – Verlander said it “would probably take a miracle” for him to be ready by Opening Day. I mean, the cheating was one thing, but unleashing this level of hell on the world seems a little dark even for them. In fact, this virus will completely overshadow the cheating scandal as the most talked about story line going into the season. The Coronavirus is a huge win for the Houston Astros. They may have sold their soul to the devil, but at least the devil is paying up.

Chris Sale BOS, LHP – If you think Tommy John surgery is inevitable, this really doesn’t change anything, but with Sale unlikely to be ready until May at the earliest, the best case scenario just got a whole lot better. Other players that were likely to begin the season on the IL or were racing against the clock also get a bump (Eugenio Suarez, Byron Buxton, Adalberto Mondesi, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Yordan Alvarez, Mike Clevinger, James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, Miles Mikolas, Cole Hamels, Carlos Carrasco, Willie Calhoun).

Yasiel Puig FA, OF – Of course the Coronavirus benefits Yasiel Puig. That makes too much sense. The odds of Puig being signed and ready by Opening Day were slim, but this delay buys him a little more time to squeeze an extra year, or a few million, or whatever it is he wants out of the Colorado Rockies (wishful thinking for Puig owners, a nightmare for Hampson/Hilliard owners).

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, Lance McCullers HOU, RHP, AJ Puk OAK, LHP … and any other pitcher that is facing an innings cap. This type of pitcher looks a little more appealing, and a little less likely to be shut down or skipped when the fantasy playoffs roll around.

All Hitters – Pitchers are creatures of habit, and with them ramping up to get ready for the grind of the MLB season … now what? Do they stop throwing? Pitch simulated games for over a month with an uncertain timetable on when the season will start? I’m sure the smart teams will come up with a good plan (and gain yet another advantage), but I would think any deviation from normal creates an unknown that can be much more detrimental to pitchers than to hitters.

(In all seriousness, I hope you and your loved ones are all healthy and safe)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

It’s the reunion episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast, as Halph comes together one more time to bullshit about all things minor leagues. Ralph Lifshitz and I start by covering the Fernando Tatis Jr. news before moving on to discuss our favorite underrated/sleeper prospects to target in dynasty leagues, including Daz Cameron, Jeter Downs, Julio Rodriguez, George Valera, Nick Neidert, Daniel Lynch, and many more. Click the link the below to check it out:

CLICK HERE FOR THE RAZZBALL PROSPECT PODCAST: REUNION EPISODE

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast
10 Dynasty Baseball Slanted Bold Predictions
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
Updated March Top 100 Prospects Ranking
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)
The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/19)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

These 11 tips have helped me throughout my dynasty career, and I’m hoping you can find some value in them too. Here are the 11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By:

1) Don’t be afraid to trade with anyone. I don’t care if they won the league three years in a row, or if after every trade there is a small peasant uprising about how unfair their trades are. Everybody is capable of being ripped off. In fact, the teams that are consistently at the top of the standings are the most ripe to be fleeced. They often have the most ego and most confidence in their evaluations. Pride cometh before the fall. Not only shouldn’t you avoid trading with them, you should target them. There is no faster way to catch up to those top teams than to be the one taking their underappreciated assets away from them. Be the team that profits from the value that is falling off the back of their overstuffed championship truck.

2) Don’t trade highly rated prospects if they struggle in their first and/or second season. Hold them. Target them from other teams. But whatever you do, do not trade them. You will not be able to come close to getting that upside returned to you in a trade.

3) Build with hitting. The worst teams in dynasty leagues are always littered with failed, injured, and/or bullpen’d pitching prospects. When your offense is ready, that is when you pour all of your resources into aces, closers, and low cost pitching sleepers.

4) Don’t be afraid to “lose trades.” Don’t worry about your obnoxious league mates who talk shit in the group email. It will make it all the more sweet when you finish above them. The decision to make a trade should be a strict calculation on whether your team is better off with those players or not. Value in a vacuum or where they rank on a general ranking is meaningless. This advice assumes you shopped the player around and you know this is your best offer. If you didn’t, then your obnoxious league mates are right.

5) What helps me get over the endowment effect (the hypothesis that people ascribe more value to things merely because they own them) is to imagine I already own the players that are being offered to me, and I’m trading for the ones on my team. It may sound silly, but when I flip trades around like that in my head, it can become very clear which side I prefer. Many times I will be on the fence about whether I should pull the trigger, and then I reverse it in my head, and realize it wouldn’t even be a question if I already owned the players being offered to me. That might have been a bit confusing, but I feel like you guys get it.

6) In roto leagues with no playoffs, don’t be afraid to go all in during the season if you see a legitimate path to a championship. Don’t get greedy and feel like you have a chance to win six championships in a row. Get your plastic trophy this year, and then rebuild. Rebuilding is fun, and is kinda the entire point of playing in dynasty leagues.

7) In playoff leagues, never go all in. Anything can happen in a one week playoff. It is all about getting in the tournament and letting the chips fall where they may.

8) Don’t ignore possible late career breakouts just because you are rebuilding. This also goes hand in hand with ignoring older, “low upside” prospects who should get playing time this season. So many breakouts have bubbled up from these groups of players in recent years, and it is usually the good teams, who are on the lookout for win now production, that scoop them. The rich get richer.

8a) Rule 8 also applies to making trades. I call these players “buy highs.” They are players who are producing unexpectedly well but nobody is fully buying into them. They will be included in many “sell high” articles, but these players make the best trade bargains. Nobody expects you to give up your very best prospects, and you can usually strike a very reasonable deal. Over the years, this strategy has landed me Lorenzo Cain, Max Muncy, Rich Hill, Charlie Morton, Jimmy Nelson, and many more.

9) In 30 team leagues, don’t overvalue superstars. It is all about depth. Which for better or worse is what real MLB teams are starting to figure out and act on.

10) Like any business or sales job, you are really selling yourself. You want people to want to trade with you. You don’t want people to hate you and hate dealing with you. Meaning don’t try to rip teams off, and don’t gloat about good deals. You are just poisoning your own well.

11) Don’t be afraid to take risks. Don’t be afraid to go with your gut. Have no regrets. This is supposed to be fun and take your mind off the more stressful aspects of life.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Without modern technology, my “website” would be me handing out pamphlets on the streets of Manhattan and my “podcast” would be me yelling about it into a megaphone. And instead of an “Imaginary Brick Wall,” I would likely be standing in front of a very real brick wall. But when my computer breaks, I want to smash it on the ground and yearn for a time when ground rule doubles were counted as home runs. If you haven’t figured it out yet, my computer won’t start, and if I don’t buy a new one it might take a few days to get this one fixed. There is a chance I won’t have a new post up until next week.

-Michael Halpern

Everyone loses value. FIN

For a slightly less quick and less dirty analysis of the prospects involved in this trade, I updated Tuesday’s The Traded Prospects post. Make sure to check out that post.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

The good news is that I am expanding the 2016 End of Season Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings to a top 35. The bad news is that it won’t be finished until Friday. No joke, I just need more time to deliberate on a lot of tough decisions. Make sure to check out the top 20 (1-10 and 11-20) if you haven’t already.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Forget Saturday morning cartoons, Ralph and Halp are invading your weekends this off-season. On this episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast, we talk about all of the standout Arizona Fall League performances, and also why Michael Kopech will now make sure to hit 100 MPH in every start just for Keith Law.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Arizona Fall League Edition

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)