The Mid-Season 2024 Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are up on the Patreon! Spreadsheet is available on the Patreon as well. Blurbs for every player. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Without further ado, here is the Mid-Season 2024 Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.1 – Witt has nearly as much upside as Elly (but not quite), and he’s a whole lot safer with a 16.4% K%. He deserves to hold down the top spot

2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.6 – .247 BA with a 31.4% makes Elly very streaky right now, but keep in mind he’s still only 22 years old. This is his floor. And being within reach of a 30/80 season as his floor is just stupid

3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.0 – He’s not slowing down at all, in fact, he’s picked it up even more, slashing .351/.431/.657 with 9 homers, 7 steals, and a 34/18 K/BB in his last 33 games. There is a real argument for him being the #1 dynasty player in the game

4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.0 – Ohtani just turned the big 3-0 a few days ago. Happy Birthday, Big Fella. It’s the only demerit to his otherwise spotless dynasty profile

Shadow4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.10 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. The Shadow Ohtani is now shadowing the Real Ohtani … the world is folding in on itself

5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.9 – 46.5% Pull% is a career high by far (38.9% in 2023). He’s aiming for that short porch as I fully expected, and it’s resulted in a career best home run pace with 21 homers in 88 games. Oh yea, the career high 94.4 MPH EV is helping too

6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.6 – Out since June 3rd with a shin injury. He was putting up the quietest 173 wRC+ in baseball history before going down with the injury

7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.0 – Since his OPS fell to .748 on May 18th, he’s been a man possessed with a 1.179 OPS in his last 41 games. He’s even started running with 4 steals after he’s never stolen more than 1 bag in a season.

8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.6 – Out since June 21st with a stress reaction in his quad. Just heal naturally. Please don’t make an appointment for a “haircut.” His .400 xwOBA was in the top 3% of the league before going down with the injury. It’s clear he can still be truly elite when healthy

9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.2 – He’s risen to #1 overall on the Razzball Player Rater on the back of 32 homers and a 204 wRC+ in 90 games. His .467 xwOBA is a career high and leads all of baseball

10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.9 – Elite as usual

11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.10 – Showing zero signs of decline and he even hit the hardest ball of his career this year with a 116.6 MPH Max EV

12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.9 – Abrams is locking in that the breakout is legit with 14 homers,  89.5 MPH EV, .364 xwOBA, and 139 wRC+, but his base stealing ability has mysteriously disappeared. He went an insane 47 for 51 on the bases last year, but that has plummeted to 14 for 24 this year. He’s slightly slower this year, but it’s hard to believe that is the cause of all of this. I’m expecting some positive regression there in the 2nd half

13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.9 – Out since June 16th with a broken hand. He wasn’t maintaining his power surge from the last few years with a 6% Barrel%, which was a 7 year low, but that’s just nitpicking as he was still dominating with a 158 wRC+.

14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.6 – Julio has officially taken this slow start thing too far. Struggling into the middle of July with a .632 OPS is no longer a slow start. But he’s still been massively unlucky with a .282 wOBA vs. .334 xwOBA. Everything looks pretty close to his career norms. There is definitely a big 2nd half coming here. He’s in prime buy low territory right now.

15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.7 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

16) (18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 31.0 – Returned from a hamstring strain and is slashing .321/.361/.564 with 5 homers, 1 steal, and a 15/3 K/BB in 18 games. How much he runs as he gets deeper into his 30’s is the biggest question for his dynasty value. I’m betting on him running till they rip the uniform off him, but you never know

17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.1 – I named him the #1 dynasty pitcher in the game after just 3 MLB starts in the last update, and he hasn’t let me down since then with a 2.08 ERA and 57/8 K/BB in his next 7 starts totaling 43.1 IP. The only nitpick is that he doesn’t have a secondary with a whiff% over 30.1%. That isn’t optimal.

18) (20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.7 – I put a bet on Skubal this off-season to lead the league in strikeouts at +8000 odds ($10 to win $800). He’s currently 5th overall, just 14 behind the leader, Garrett Crochet. I can smell it! Needless to say, he’s fully backing up the 2023 breakout, and the odds won’t be nearly as good next off-season

19) (26) (29) (23) Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 27.8 – 157 wRC+ and .968 OPS are both career highs by far. He’s as consistent as they come and he’s having a career year in his age 27 season

20) (22) (28) (11) Luis Robert – CHW, OF, 26.11 – He’s volatile, steaky, and injury prone, but the man is a power/speed beast with 8 homers and 5 steals in 30 games since returning from a hamstring injury. He’s clearly working on becoming a more mature hitter with a career best by far 33.1% Chase%, but it’s come at the cost of his K% with a career worst 33.3% K%. I’ll keep betting on this kind of talent, but it’s not a smooth ride

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 400+ DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Unlike the April Update, we have a legit sample to work with to make some real determinations. As usual, I will be going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 20 is free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the May 2024 Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season and April rankings are in parenthesis, in that order

1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.4 – I went all in on Elly’s insane upside this off-season, ranking him 9th overall on the Top 1,000 and writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” … And now that he’s exploded with a legit shot at 30/100, I’m not taking my foot off the pedal. He’s still a bit riskier than some of the elite talent ranked after him, but none of them can touch his upside. He’s my #1 overall dynasty player.

2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.11 – Witt’s cooled off a bit from the scorching start to the season with a .867 OPS, but the underlying numbers are still elite with a .404 xwOBA. I was so close to ranking him over Elly as the top dog because he definitely has the safer hit tool, but I didn’t play it safe with Elly this off-season, and I’m not going to start now

3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.10 – Ohtani doesn’t even need to pitch to be the most valuable player in fantasy, ranking 1st overall on the Razzball Player Rater. If he comes back healthy on the mound in 2025, he’s such an insanely good win now piece that I just can’t ding him for being older than the other elite players. He was my undisputed #1 overall dynasty player before going down with the elbow injury, and there is an argument that he should still hold that top spot

4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.4 – We’re deep enough into the season to say something ain’t right. The elite contact numbers from 2023 have completely disappeared, and the 8.9% Barrel% is a career low by far. He’s been unlucky (.322 wOBA vs. .353 xwOBA), and he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), so I do think a heater is coming, but this has gone beyond a slow start to the season. He deserves a small drop, but this is still an elite of the elite dynasty asset for me.

Shadow4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.10 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.7 – As I expected, he’s aiming for that short porch, increasing his pull percentage 6.9 percentage points to a career high 45.8% and increasing his launch 3.7 degrees to 10.4 degrees. It’s resulted in 11 homers and a .463 xwOBA (2nd best in baseball behind only Ohtani) in 48 games. The 4 steals are modest, but that actually puts him on a career high pace there too

6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.10 – Well, well, well. How the turntables … have turned. I ranked Gunnar over Carroll as the #1 overall prospect in the game in the 2023 Rankings, and that looked like a mistake after the 2023 season, but things look different this year with Gunnar jumping back over Carroll. His 94.1 MPH EV is in the top 3% of the league, and it’s led to 16 homers, which leads the league. And he’s running much more with 7 steals. I wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t the last time Carroll and Gunnar flip values, but right now, Gunnar reigns supreme.

7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.3 – 15 homers is the 2nd most in the league behind Gunnar, and his 192 wRC+ is 2nd to only Ohtani … and it still feels like barely anyone gets excited about him. It’s crazy how good he is compared to his hype

8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.0 – Unsurprisingly shook off a slow start with 10 homers and a 1.307 OPS in his last 25 games. The exit velocity king is back atop his throne with a 96.6 MPH EV that leads all of baseball

9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.7 – 185 wRC+ is tied for a career high, and his 8 steals in 48 games is on pace to shatter his recent season steal totals

10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.4 – Only 6 steals in 7 attempts is the main thing holding him back from ranking higher. His EV also hasn’t really bounced back to pre PED/wrist/shoulder levels, but Tatis is still an elite beast with a .389 xwOBA that is in the top 6% of the league.

11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.4 – Julio is a notorious slow starter and nothing looks too concerning in the underlying numbers. He’s already started to heat up with a .315 BA in his last 31 games. The homer binge has to be around the corner

12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.8 – It’s getting harder to keep the faith, but a 92 MPH EV in May tells me better days are still ahead. He’s also definitely been unlucky with a .251 wOBA vs. 305 xwOBA. We might be entering prime buy low territory right now

13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.7 – With nearly zero value in the stolen base category, Yordan needs to be air tight elite everywhere else, and he hasn’t been this year with a .759 OPS. The underlying numbers are better, but even those are in career low areas with a still very good 12.8% Barrel% and .373 xwOBA

14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.7 – Cooled off since the hot start, but Abrams is still showing major improvement with a 89.1 MPH EV, .374 xwOBA, and .310 xBA. He hasn’t locked in his near elite dynasty asset status, but he’s clearly leveling up

15) (16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 23.0 – Leveled off after the scorching start, but the hit tool is clearly much improved with a .270 BA and 21.3% whiff% (.209 BA with a 28.1% whiff% in 2023), and the power/speed combo is still very good with a 20/30 season within reach

16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.7 – Career low by far 26.4 ft/sec sprint shows there could be some physical decline here, and a .360 xwOBA is nearly a career low. It’s way too early to say he’s declining and the 146 wRC+ is near elite, but I think it’s worth mentioning

17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.7 – .302 xwOBA is basically a career low and his OPS is on a 4 year decline at .780. Like Harper, it’s worth mentioning, but he still ranks 12th overall on the Razzball Player Rater and nothing is overly concerning in the underlying numbers, so way too early to say it’s the start of a decline phase

18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.10 – Out since May 3rd with a hamstring strain. He wasn’t showing any signs of decline before going down with the injury with a .343 BA, 2 homers, and 10 steals in 33 games

19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Called up the bigs and hasn’t missed a beat with a 2.70 ERA and 46.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 10 IP. The fastball sits 99.7 MPH and he has a 38.3% whiff%. Calling Skenes a generational pitching prospect was not oversold. It might be early, but I don’t think I would trade Skenes for any other pitcher. He’s my new top dog dynasty baseball pitcher

20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.5 – Not only is he backing up the 2023 breakout, he’s actually been even better with a 1.80 ERA and 31.6%/3.8% K%/BB% in 55 IP. The velocity is up too with a 96.6 MPH fastball. He’s the best starter in baseball. Just stay healthy

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Unlike the April Update, we have a legit sample to work with and make some real determinations. As usual, I will be going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. The Top 20-ish will be released here on the Brick Wall. First post will drop later today. Catch you then …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 400+ DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

These prospects rankings are for the pure, uncut prospects only. If you were tainted with MLB at bats/IP, even 1, you’ve lost your prospect virginity, and are ineligible for this list. The goal is to make a list with fresh names, and allow everyone to be evaluated on an even playing field of 0 MLB experience. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 301 May 2024 Dynasty Baseball Pure Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG! (4/24/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (May Update coming soon)
-MAY DYNASTY TARGETS COMING SOON
-SPREADSHEETS

1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.8 – When you eliminate every player who has already made their MLB debut, Wood rises to the #1 pure prospect in the game. And he did it on the back of much improved contact rates at Triple-A with a 20.7% K%. He combines that with elite power (93.8 MPH EV), speed (8 steals), and OBP (15.6% BB%). He’s going to be scary good.

2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Remember all that hand wringing about his fastball shape? Yea, neither do I as he’s been wrecking Triple-A with a 0.99 ERA and 42.9%/7.6% K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. The fastball averages 100 MPH and the secondaries (slider, splitter, change) rack up whiffs. This is what a true ace should do against minor league hitters, and he’s doing it. Let’s be honest, he shouldn’t be on this list at all. Call him up, Pitt.

3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.6 – 3 homers, 7 steals, 23.2%/17.2% K%/BB% and 132 wRC+ in 24 games at Double-A. After the low walk rates in 2023, he’s clearly working on being more patient

4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.2 – Baby Bonds is now officially an elite prospect with his destruction of Double-A, slashing .281/.500/.625 with 4 homers, 9 steals, a 28.3%/29.3% K%/BB% and 203 wRC+ in 20 games

5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.0 – Hit tool issues aren’t in the rear view mirror yet with a 32.4% K% in 16 games at Double-A, but it only needs to sit around 30% in the majors for him to be an absolute menace, and I’m betting on him being able to do that

6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – It took him a minute to find a rhythm, but he’s been back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A. Skenes might have separated himself a bit, but both of them are going to be aces. Unfortunately he did land on the IL with a hamstring strain during his latest start

7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.5 – Destined to be one of the top power hitters in baseball with 11 homers in 33 games at Triple-A, and the cherry on top is that he runs a bit too with 3 steals

8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.2 – Limited to just 1 AB with a hamstring injury, but I wouldn’t let that change his outlook at all. His rise to uber prospect status has been delayed, but it’s still coming

9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.1 – Are we concerned yet? Crews followed up his poor Double-A debut in 2023 with a terrible spring, and now another poor showing at Double-A. He has a 34.3%/7.1% K%/BB% in 16 games. The 106 wRC+ isn’t terrible, but this isn’t the no doubt superstar college bat that we thought we were getting. That much is becoming pretty clear.

10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.0 – 33.3% K% and .225 BA is showing the hit tool risk, but considering he’s not quite 20 yet, and he has a 105 wRC+, I’m not overly concerned. He’s also clearly been working on keeping the ball off the ground with a 34.6% GB%, so some growing pains are normal

11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.9 – Isn’t destroying the upper minors like he did the lower minors, but he’s still showing off the prodigious power with 5 homers in 24 games at Double-A as a 19 year old

12) (35) Colt Emerson – SEA, SS, 18.8 – Backing up his strong pro debut with a 131 wRC+ in 12 games at Single-A

13) (50) Lazaro Montes – SEA, OF, 19.6 – Going full Yordan Alvarez glow up with a 14.4%/13.6% K%/BB% and 6 homers in 24 games at Single-A. He’s a truly elite prospect

14) (30) Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 22.9 – 1.77 ERA with a 24/6 K/BB in 20.1 IP in the upper minors. Fastball sat 93.7 MPH in his first start at Tripe-A, which isn’t overpowering, but maybe that is better off for his long term health considering 88.1 IP is his career high. I feel comfortable with my #2 starter evaluation of him from this off-season.

15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.10 – Hit tool issues aren’t completely behind him with a 28%/5% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A, but he’s only 20, and he’s obliterating the level with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 178 wRC+. Tack on a plus glove which locks him in as Tampa’s SS of the future, and you have a nearly elite fantasy prospect.

16) (59) Jacob Melton – HOU, OF, 23.8 – 20.2% K% is huge to see, because we know he has the power/speed combo with 4 homers and 6 steals in 23 games at Double-A. He’s a legit elite athlete. Melton continues to be very underrated.

17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.1 –  Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024

18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Back to his silly dominance with a 41.8%/7.6% K%/BB% in 19.1 IP at High-A. When Skenes/Jobe/Horton graduate, we are looking at a contender for the top pitching prospect in the game

19) (68) Tink Hence – STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence was a buy low, bounce back target of mine, and he’s bouncing back with a 2.10 ERA and 32.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP at Double-A. His ace ascension is back on

20) (195) Adam Mazur – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – Mazur was one of my top targets this off-season, and he’s showing why with a 2.39 ERA and 29.3%/4% K%/BB% in 26.1 IP at AA. I called him the discount Christian Scott, and he remains the discount Christian Scott. I’m all in

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG! (4/24/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (May Update coming soon)
-MAY DYNASTY TARGETS COMING SOON
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep on the Patreon. Top 19 are free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. A spreadsheet is also available. Here is the April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season rankings are in parenthesis

1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.3 – I’m not ready to unseat Acuna from the top spot on April 15th. You can pick apart the underlying numbers, but with a player like Acuna, doing that a few weeks into the season is silly. Maybe the knee is bothering him, but he has 7 steals, so it can’t be bothering him that much. We’ll re-asses next month if he’s still struggling, but for now, he remains the top dog.

2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.10 – I ranked Witt 2nd overall on the Top 1,000 and closed out his blurb by writing, “There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024.” … I was way off, he’s actually been much better than that with a 1.086 OPS and all of the underlying numbers to match, namely a 97.6 MPH EV. If anyone was going to take the top spot from Acuna, it would be Witt, but I’m not there yet.

3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.3 – With a normal off-season, Tatis is back to his elite self with a .398 xwOBA, and his contact rates have been better than ever with a 14.3% K%. Maybe he got fully healthy coming off all of the surgeries, or maybe he’s back on the juice, but regardless, he’s back (I’m just half joking, I’m betting that he is just fully healthy)

4) (5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – It seems Ohtani has officially been absolved of any wrongdoing in the gambling scandal, and whether there is more to this story or not, Ohtani seems safe. The elbow injury also hasn’t impacted his hitting at all with a 1.048 OPS in 18 games.

5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.7 – I’ve been seeing a lot of sell low panic with Carroll, but with an elite player like Carroll, I would refuse to sell low under any circumstances. I would rather go down with the ship.

6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.3 – I saw this slow start coming from a mile away, starting Julio’s Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride.” The guy is quite clearly a slow starter. He will get hot eventually, like he has the past two seasons.

7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.6 – Soto is in the midst of that career year (1.009 OPS) that will land him that 1 Billi contract and put some respect back on Scott Boras’ name. 95.2 MPH EV and 13% K% are both at career best levels too

8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.2 – The quiet killer is back at it with a .460 xwOBA that is 10th best in the league. It’s kinda amazing how great Tucker is and how nobody really gives a crap

9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – I coined myself the Autobahn of Dynasty Baseball Schools, and I lived up to that billing ranking Elly 9th overall this off-season. He’s currently #6 overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I was too low. Sure he’ll strikeout out about 30% of the time, but the other 70% of the time he will do superhuman shit

10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.9 – .525 xwOBA leads the league. In leagues that devalue steals, he has an argument to be #1

Shadow10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 31.11 – Only Judge could have a 94.2 MPH EV and it be the 2nd lowest mark of his career

12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Mookie is having a late career power surge like it’s the steroid era all over again. 6 homers in 18 games puts him on pace to break his career high for the 3rd year in a row

13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – Launch is up to 15.2 degrees, whiff% is down to 23.9%, and he’s running more with 4 steals. The only thing he hasn’t improved that he needed to improve is a .596 OPS vs. lefties. But improving in 3 of the 4 areas he needed to show improvement in is good enough for me to move him into near elite dynasty asset territory

14) (16) Michael Harris – ATL, OF, 23.1 – He’s not going full explosion yet, but he’s hitting the ball harder than ever with a 91.8 MPH EV, 114.4 MPH Max EV and 53.5% Hard Hit%. All are career highs. 4.2 degree launch needs to rise to truly explode, but even as is, he’s near elite.

15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams is going full power explosion with a 91.7 MPH EV and 3 homers in 12 games. It’s too early to say the power explosion is 100% legit, but even a small leveling up would go a long way. There are not many guys I would trade Abrams for at this point, and if he comes back down to earth, we are still talking about a really good player

16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 22.11 – Tony Low Launch matured like 10 years in a single off-season. He’s hitting the ball harder with a 91.1 MPH EV and the plate approach is insanely improved with a 13.6%/15.2% K%/BB%. He’s also still running a ton with 5 steals. He ranks 13th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I named him a target this off-season, and I’m definitely buying in. This was an elite prospect who is leveling up in year 2

17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper had a back issue pop up in spring and he’s struggled in both spring and to start the year. He’s also been unlucky though (.287 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA) and he’s still crushing the ball with with a 91.1 MPH EV. You gotta stay patient with vets like Harper

18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.6 – .692 OPS and the underlying numbers are even worse than that with a .258 xwOBA, but like Harper, you can’t panic with vets like this at this point in the season

19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.9 – 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. Turner has yet to lose even a half step of speed. The decline ain’t coming this year

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
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-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep with the first post dropping later today on Patreon. Top 20-ish will be free on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. (Update: The first post just dropped, click here for the Top 19 free on IBW). A spreadsheet will be available when the rankings are completed. See ya soon …

-Halp

***(Update: The first post just dropped, click here for the Top 19 free on IBW)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Welcome to Alternative Rankings Week (with a Spring Training kicker)! This week I’m pumped to unveil my alternative dynasty rankings. My main Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings are for 5×5 BA leagues, and I know that there are many different league types out there. The 5×5 OBP Rankings dropped this morning on the Patreon (Top 80 free here on the Brick Wall below), and then my Universal Rankings will follow. The Universal Rankings bump up good real life hitters, and devalues speed. It is perfect for leagues that have 6 or more hitting categories, and for certain points leagues like Ottoneu that don’t have negative points for K’s (but even in those leagues the rankings should be close). And then we get some actual games to dive into with Spring Training Opening Day on Thursday. Top 10 2025 FYPD Rankings, Predicting the Top 50 2025 Prospects Rankings, and a only 2024 Prospects Rankings are all coming down the pike as well. I’m pumped. Here are the OBP Top 450 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–TOP 101 1B–Top 129 2B–Top 133 3B–Top 161 SS-Top 316 OF-Top 321 SP-Top 102 RP
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 OBP DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Biggest Bumps – Players with a low-ish BA (relatively) combined with a high OBP got the biggest bumps. This includes Corbin Carroll, Juan Soto, Matt Olson Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Evan Carter, Triston Casas, Kyle Schwarber, Roman Anthony, Will Smith, Nolan Gorman, Bo Naylor, Chas McCormick, Max Muncy, Coby Mayo, Lars Nootbaar, James Outman, Jack Suwinski, Isaac Paredes, Ian Happ, Edouard Julien, Sean Murphy, Jorge Soler, Termarr Johnson, Willson Contreras, Brandon Nimmo, Brandon Lowe, Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Marsh, Colson Montgomery, Brett Baty, Xavier Isaac, Lazaro Montes, Nate Lowe, Matt Wallner, Willy Adames, Eugenio Suarez, Ryan Jeffers, MJ Melendez, Owen Caissie, Mitch Garver, Joc Pederson, Josh Bell, Antony Rizzo, Luke Raley, JP Crawford, Jace Jung, Brock Wilken, Davis Schneider, Marco Luciano, and Dalton Rushing.

Biggest Drops – Players with high-ish batting averages and who don’t walk that much got dinged, in some cases not huge drops because speed might be their biggest asset anyway. This includes Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Luis Robert, Michael Harris, Jackson Chourio, Cody Bellinger, CJ Abrams, Josh Jung, Josh Lowe, Lane Thomas, Christian Encarnacion Strand, Bryson Stott, Nico Hoerner, Yainer Diaz, Nolan Areando, Josh Naylor, Tommy Edman, Jackson Merrill, Teoscar Hernandez, Nick Castellanos, Luis Matos, Andrew Vaughn, Masataka Yoshida, Ronny Mauricio, Alec Bohm, Eloy Jimenez, Ezequiel Tovar, Ceddanne Rafaela, Leody Taveras, Heston Kjerstad, Esteury Ruiz, Tim Anderson, Keibert Ruiz, Salvador Perez, Lourdes Gurriel, Alex Verdugo, Alek Thomas, Brandon Drury, Bryan De La Cruz, Yanquiel Fernandez, Jose Siri, Johan Rojas, and Oswald Peraza.

*Their 5×5 BA Ranking are in parenthesis to show the movement for all players

1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) (3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

3) (7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the elite of the elite tier in BA leagues, but in any league that devalues speed, he’s as valuable as they come. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

4) (5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

5) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

6) (4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

7) (10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

8) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

9) (8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

10) (12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

11) (13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow11) (13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

12) (14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

13) (9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

14) (15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

15) (19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

16) (20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

17) (27) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

18) (28) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

19) (11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

20) (16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

21) (17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

22) (18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

23) (21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

24) (30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

25) (22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

26) (23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

27) (24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

28) (25) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

29) (26) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

30) (29) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore, but the only snafu is that he underwent hernia surgery in late January, which puts the start of his season in question. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but he’s about to enter his 30’s, and injuries like this can start to take their toll. 2024 Projection: 89/32/98/.291/.369/.538/2

31) (32) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.1 – Bichette’s speed and launch angle are both headed in the wrong direction. He’s putting up old man sprint speeds at just 25 years old with a bottom 42% of the league mark. His sprint speed was in the top 17% of the league in 2019. He missed time with knee tendinitis in August, so maybe that played a role, but his sprint speed was also way down in 2022. It resulted in only 5 steals in 135 games. That seriously cuts down his upside because he’s not a monster home run hitter either with a career worst 6.2 degree launch that resulted in 20 homers. It’s not all bad news though as Bichette still hits the ball very hard with a 90.2 MPH EV and he still makes a ton of contact with a 19.1% K%. His .361 xwOBA was actually a career high. he had a .306 BA and he’s never had a BA under .290 in his 5 year career. BA guys are not my favorite to go after for fantasy, but I’m not willing to classify Bichette as “BA guy” quite yet. Development isn’t linear, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him faster with a higher launch in 2024, and even if he doesn’t improve in those areas, he’s still an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 89/25/94/.296/.340/.483/12

32) (31) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

33) (33) Royce Lewis MIN, 3B, 24.9 – Royce goes in for ACL surgeries like he’s going in for a tune-up, because he always comes right back firing on all cylinders. He showed double plus power with 19 homers in 64 games (including the playoffs) on the back of a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV, a 114 MPH Max EV (top 10% of the league), and a 16.2 degree launch. He still has above average to plus speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint despite the knee injuries (6 steals), and his plate approach, which was once a bit of a concern as a prospect, was about average with a 23%/8.4% K%/BB%. It all led to a 155 wRC+ in 58 games. When he’s on the field, he’s done nothing but destroy levels since 2022. I implored you to keep buying through the knee surgeries, writing in last years Top 1,000, “I named Lewis a player to target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip.” … so hopefully you already have him on your team. If not for the added injury risk, which I think you have to at least consider, he might have ranked 15 spots higher. 2024 Projection: 77/29/88/.272/.339/.485/16

34) (34) Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz was on pace to go 30/30 if he played a full season (19/22 in 97 games). I know “if he played a full season” is the big question mark as he’s yet to play more than 124 games in his 3 year career, but we would have been talking about him as Top 10 dynasty asset if he played in 140+ games. Ranking him at “only” 33rd overall is the injury discount, and the discount is necessary because unfortunately the injury risk is real. A turf toe injury in May kept him out for 6 weeks which required surgery after the season. He’s expected to be fully healthy going into 2024, but a pretty major surgery during the off-season where he won’t be able to run for at least 3 months isn’t optimal. He also hit the IL for a month during the season with an oblique strain. He played in only 60 games in 2022 and needed surgery on his back and knee that year. The injuries are piling up, but he’ll only be 26 on opening day, and he still has his plus power/speed combo with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint. The 30.8%/6.8% K%/BB% isn’t great, but his 27% chase% is slightly above average, and he has a career .245 BA in 1,193 PA, so I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking. Jazz is one healthy season away from being talked about with the best in the fantasy game. 2024 Projection: 74/26/79/.247/.315/.462/28

35) (35) Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

36) (36) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 47/17/54/.260/.323/.462/5 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

37) (41) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

38) (37) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 12/3.36/1.09/193 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP

39) (38) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 29.1 – Arozarena couldn’t maintain his blistering start to the season with a much better 1st half (.855 OPS) than 2nd half (.700 OPS), but it all evened out to a typical Arozarena season. He put up a 126 wRC+ in 2023, a 124 wRC+ in 2022, and a 127 wRC+ in 2021. He went at least 20/20 in each season. The man is consistent. He hits the ball very hard (91.7 MPH EV), he put up a career best 11.3 degree launch, he doesn’t have strikeout issues (23.9% K%), he has plus speed (28.4 ft/sec sprint), and he gets on base with a career best 12.2% BB%. That’s a near elite fantasy asset. 2024 Projection: 92/22/84/.260/.355/.442/27

40) (51) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

41) (40) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 31.1 – Everybody was scared off by the terrible plate approach, so Garcia went ahead and made massive improvements to it. His BB% rose 4.2 percentage points to a well above average 10.3% and his chase rate dropped 8 percentage points to a nearly average 29.3%. That’s remarkable, and it’s a reminder that a player’s plate approach tends to improve as they gain experience, hence why it’s often called a “mature” plate approach. The improved patience didn’t take away any of his power with 39 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 15.7 degree launch. The only quibble with his season is that his sprint speed dropped considerably to 27.3 ft/sec, and he stole only 9 bags in 10 attempts. With the speed decline and age, it’s hard to predict a major bounce back there, but the maturing at the dish more than makes up for it as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 94/35/103/.254/.330/.505/13

42) (42) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – Cruz was showing major plate approach gains, in an admittingly small sample, before a broken ankle from a home plate collision ended his season. He had a 20%/17.5% BB% K%/BB% in 9 games after putting up a 34.9%/7.8% K%/BB% in 2022. It was a very small sample, but it’s what I expected to happen as Cruz never showed that level of plate approach issues in the minors. Super tall players will always have some swing and miss in their game, but that is acceptable when the talent is huge, and Cruz most certainly has huge talent with an at least plus power/speed combo. If the injury creates any type of discount, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection:  78/27/83/.251/.333/.471/20

43) (43) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022 (25.1% K%), he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

44) (44) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 15/3.27/1.05/230 in 200 IP

45) (45) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

46) (46) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

47) (47) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

48) (48) Corbin Burnes BAL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. The trade to Baltimore doesn’t really impact his dynasty value is any meaningful way in either direction. 2024 Projection: 15/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP

49) (117) Kyle Schwarber PHI, OF, 31.1 – Schwarber drilled 47 homers with a .197 BA. Almost half of his hits were homers with 115 total hits. He is the ultimate 3 true outcome slugger with a 16.4% Barrel% and 29.9%/17.5% K%/BB%. 2024 Projection: 94/43/92/.222/.354/.499/4

50) (53) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 32.8 – It was another injury plagued year for Trout with only 82 games played. Nobody can be surprised by that, can they? This year it was a hamate fracture in his wrist which required surgery and effectively ended his season on July 3rd. He’s averaged 79 games over his past 3 years. It’s not only the missed games, the injuries seem to be taking a toll on his performance as it looks like he’s entering a decline phase. The power still looks great with 18 homers and a 91.9 MPH EV, but the .263 BA and 28.7% K% were both career worsts, and a continuation of a decline from 2022. His 12.4% BB% is also much lower than his prime years. He’s still very fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s long since stopped running, it shows he hasn’t fallen off a cliff athletically. If he can stay on the field, he should still put up big power numbers at the least, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 2024 Projection: 88/35/86/.273/.371/.538/4

51) (50) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP

52) (54) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP

53) (55) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

54) (56) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP

55) (57) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP

56) (58) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP

57) (52) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 31.9 – I’ve been all over Machado’s every other year voodoo thing that’s happening. Here is what I wrote in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are larger forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023” … hah! I mean, he literally had one of his good but not standout seasons with a 114 wRC+ in 138 games. I don’t even want to waste my time going through all the numbers, we all know what’s going to happen. He’s due for a beastly 2024. 2024 Projection: 86/32/98/.274/.336/.490/8

58) (39) Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

59) (59) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

60) (60) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and it might have me considering going with the ready made ace in Yoshinobu Yamamoto over him too, but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

61) (61) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

62) (63) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 26.2 – Rutschman has an advantage over other catchers on playing time alone. His 687 PA led all catchers by far (William Contreras was 2nd at 611). It helps his fantasy profile play up, because he’s a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter with an elite plate approach (14.7%/13.4% K%/BB%) as his most valuable skill. I don’t mean to be too disparaging with that statement, because he has the potential to be a near elite real life hitter with a .373 xwOBA (top 8% of the league). The power is only slightly above average right now with a 92.7 MPH FB/LD EV, 7.5% Barrel%, and 12.6 degree launch, but this was his first full season in the majors, so this is basically the baseline. 2024 Projection: 88/22/85/.286/.381/.458/3

63) (67) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.11 – You can’t leave the house these days without hearing Nolan Jones this and Nolan Jones that, but I was ringing the 5 alarm bell on Jones back in my June Targets Article, closing out the blurb by writing, “Jones has no joke near elite potential … I would go hard after him.” After that writeup he put up a 1.007 OPS with 11 homers and 14 steals in his final 57 games. He went 20/20 in just 107 games on the season. His speed was vastly underrated as a prospect with a well above average 28.4 ft/sec sprint (are scouts just making up speed grades for most prospects?), but they nailed his power grade with an at least plus 90.1/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also an OBP machine with a 12.5% BB%. The two downsides are that he’s always had high strikeout rates with a 29.7% K%, and he’s never had a high launch angle with a 9.8 degree launch. Coors Field and the low launch should help his BA from completely tanking, but he’s not going to repeat a .401 BABIP. Unfortunately, he played far too well to have much value left on the bone this off-season, but if you took my advice back in June, you already have him. 2024 Projection: 86/26/88/.255/.352/.486/23

64) (62) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 27.10 – A shoulder injury in 2022 put some doubt into Peralta’s ace trajectory coming into 2023, but he proved that was merely a bump in the road. He put up career bests in fastball velocity (94.4 MPH), innings pitched (165.2 IP) and BB% (7.9%). He once again eclipsed a 30% K% at 30.9%. He was also at his best in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 92/11 K/BB in his final 62.2 IP. Peralta cemented his status as a young ace this year, but because his 3.86 ERA doesn’t look all that great, you might be able to buy him for non ace prices this off-season. 2024 Projection: 12/3.38/1.09/215 in 170 IP

65) (64) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 33.3 – Remember when people were worried about Gausman going from San Francisco to Toronto? (I named him a target that year) Remember when people questioned if he can be consistent with a splitter as his main secondary? Well, those memories are fading as Gausman has been the model of consistency. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.18/237/55 in 185 IP. His 31.1% K% was the 3rd best mark in the league among qualified starters. He’s one of the safest aces out there. 2024 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/214 in 180 IP

66) (65) Blake Snell FRA, LHP, 31.4 – In my first Mailbag Podcast Podcast back in April, I got asked about how concerned we should be with Blake Snell after his rough start to the season, and my response was that he is the type of pitcher to find his groove and rip off like 4 straight starts of double digit strikeouts, so I would hold on. Well, not only did he rip off 4 straight starts, he ripped off 23 straight starts with a 1.20 ERA and 186/72 K/BB in his final 135 IP. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 48/27 K/BB in the 45 IP before that. The problem is, just as easily as he can get red hot, he can also go ice cold with a 13.3% BB% that was a career worst and in the bottom 4% of the league. You are playing with fire with such bad control, which prevents Snell from entering the truly elite pitching tier, but with his extreme strikeout upside and career 3.20 ERA, it would be silly to drop him any further than the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 13/3.27/1.20/218 in 170 IP

67) (66) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 27.4 – Skubal went in for a flexor tendon “upgrade” in August 2022, and he came out one of the best pitchers in baseball when he returned in July. I’m not even going to call it a “surgery,” because me thinks there are more than a few pitchers out there who should elect to have it if you can expect these results. He put up a pitching line of 2.80/0.90/102/14 in 80.1 IP. His fastball jumped 1.7 MPH to 95.8 MPH and it became arguably the best 4-seamer in baseball with a league leading .225 xwOBA (250 pitch min). His changeup was elite too with a 50.6% whiff% that was 3rd best. The slider and sinker were also both above average pitches. His 32.9% K% trailed only Strider and Glasnow. And to top it all off, his control improved to elite levels with a 4.5% BB%. That is almost unheard of for control to actually improve directly coming off major arm surgery. He’ll have to prove he can keep up this level over a full season, but if he can, he’ll be in the conversation for the #1 fantasy starter next year. 2024 Projection: 13/3.36/1.05/190 in 155 IP

68) (68) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 26.7 – I was super high on Luzardo last off-season, trusting the improved control he showed in the 2nd half of 2022, and that proved wise as his 7.4% BB% was actually above average this year. He also stayed healthy, putting up a pitching line of 3.58/1.21/208/55 in 178.2 IP. The stuff is filthy with a 96.7 MPH fastball, an elite slider that put up a 51.8% whiff% (only Snell and Strider can top that), and a solid changeup that misses bats (36.1% whiff%). He officially fulfilled his ace upside status. 2024 Projection: 13/3.49/1.15/202 in 175 IP

69) (69) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

70) (70) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA and 24%/6.9% K%BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

71) (71) Tyler Glasnow LAD, RHP, 30.7 – Glasnow is 30 years old and he just reached a career high 120 IP this season. An oblique injury was the culprit this year which delayed the start of his year until late May. When he’s on the mound, it’s crystal clear his fantasy upside is matched by very, very few. His 33.4% K% was bested by only Spencer Strider. The stuff is huge with a 96.4 MPH fastball, and the control is above average with a 7.6% BB%. If you want to look on the bright side, it wasn’t an arm injury which got him this year, and if you want to include the minors and the AFL, he threw 144.2 IP in 2014 and 140 IP in 2016. If you want to completely ignore the injury risk, I can see going 30 spots higher on him. The Dodgers doling out a 5 year, $136 million contract extension for him also gives added confidence that a smart organization is willing to bet on him staying healthy enough over the next 5 years to earn that contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.11/190 in 145 IP

72) (72) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 30.2 – Fried missed 3 months of the season with a forearm strain, but he looked completely healthy when he returned with his 4th straight year of ace production. He had a pitching line of 2.55/1.13/25.7%/5.8% in 77.2 IP. He induces weak contact with a 86.5 MPH EV against (top 9% of the league), he keeps the ball on the ground with a 4.8 degree launch, he has plus control, and he misses bats with a 27.2% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 14/3.18/1.10/175 in 175 IP

73) (73) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

74) (49) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – It’s almost like they made the new rules and new ball specifically for Abrams. The juicier ball helped his below average power play up (87.4 MPH EV with 18 homers), the banned shift helped lefties the most (all lefties saw their BA increase from .239 in 2022 to .249 in 2023), and the bigger bases/pickoff rules sparked him to start running a ton again (7 steals in 2022 vs. 47 steals in 2023). It wasn’t only the new rules though, he also leveled up by increasing his barrel%, EV, launch, and BB%. Even with all of those gains, he was still a below average hitter with a 90 wRC+, and while he has the type of power/speed combo to thrive in fantasy while being a bad real life hitter, that profile has a way of catching up to you. Considering he’s still only 23 years old, and proved his ability to make meaningful improvements in 2023, I’m betting on him continuing to improve and becoming the fantasy beast we all expected when he was an elite prospect. 2024 Projection: 87/17/71/.267/.321/.430/42

75) (74) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

76) (76) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

77) (77) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 26.11 – Gilbert is an elite control pitchers (4.7% BB%) with a big fastball (95.7 MPH) and improving secondaries. The whiff% was up 7.1 percentage points on his slider to a respectable 32.2%, 7.3 percentage points on his curveball to 30.6%, and his new splitter was at least plus when he went to it (14.8% usage) with a .185 xwOBA and 34.7% whiff%. Improving the secondaries was the last step to unleash his full potential, and while his 3.73 ERA and 24.5% K% in 190.2 IP doesn’t jump off the screen, it gives him the potential to level up even further in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.54/1.12/193 in 187 IP

78) (78) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Nola likely had the worst season of his career (other than his rookie season) taking into account both surface stats and underlying numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the 3rd worst mark of his career and his 3.77 xERA was the worst of his career. A 8.3% Barrel%, 89.3 MPH EV, and 32 homers against were all career worsts, and his 25.5% K% was a 7 year low. Nothing was so bad or so out of the realm of his career norms, and he’s been alternating great years with mediocre years for his entire career, so I don’t think this is the beginning of a true decline. The Phillies obviously agree as they just signed him for 7 years at $172 million. 2024 Projection: 12/3.61/1.12/205 in 190 IP

79) (79) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 30.4 – It was a tale of 2nd halves for Framber as he had a 2.27 ERA with a 104/21 K/BB in his first 99 IP and 4.64 ERA with a 96/36 K/BB in his final 99 IP. He also got hit up in 12 playoff innings. The velocity was up on all of his pitches with a 95.3 MPH sinker (93.9 MPH in 2022), but it seems like it actually hurt him as his once insanely elite launch angle (negative 3.6 degrees in 2022) rose all the way to a positive 4.2 degrees. He missed a few more bats with a career high 26.7% whiff%, and his control was a bit better with a 7.1% BB%, but it didn’t make up for all extra flyballs, leading to a 3.46 ERA and 4.33 xERA. He’s a very, very good pitcher no matter how you slice it, but the extreme groundball rate was his best asset, and you might not be able to fully count on that anymore. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.15/192 in 195 IP

80) (80) Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – Greene underwent Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow in late September, but since elbows seem to be optional for hitting anyway, he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. I still think you have to give some leeway for rust, especially in the 1st half, but long term, it shouldn’t be an issue. He was in the process of his first breakout before going down with the injury with an 11.3% Barrel%, 91.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, .363 xwOBA, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to .288 BA with 11 homers, and 7 steals in 99 games (a broken fibula kept him out for over a month in June). I said “first” breakout, because he has more levels in him if he can raise his 6.6 degree launch and improve on his 27.4%/8.4% K%/BB%, which I would bet on him being able to do as he gains experience. There is a chance Greene ends up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but he can potentially be such a good real life hitter that he’ll still be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 86/20/77/.268/.335/.448/12 Prime Projection: 97/27/89/.282/.354/.476/15

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
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