Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10+ Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – I implored my Patreon members to go out and buy Lodolo (along with Spencer Strider and Cristian Javier) while he was on the IL in my Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets back in June, and then the breakout came shortly after that. He put up a 3.35 ERA with a 112/34 K/BB in 88.2 IP after touting him (5.52 ERA in 14.2 IP previously). His curveball is the money maker with a .220 xwOBA and 46% whiff%, and the bat missing 94.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either with a 27.6% whiff%. He rounds out the repertoire with a groundball inducing sinker and changeup. He’s an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’6” with a Randy Johnson-esque side arm lefty delivery. Injuries and Great American Ballpark are the only things that can hold him back. 2023 Projection: 10/3.48/1.18/175 in 150 IP

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 23.8 – It felt like I was the only one who believed in Greene for a little while there, naming him a player to target in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Targets in September, and while his late season dominance chipped into some of that value, I still think there is a buying opportunity. He closed the season out with a 1.02 ERA and 51/8 K/BB in his final 35.1 IP. He throws a swing and miss 98.3 MPH fastball (28.3% whiff%) with a plus slider (.245 xwOBA). It was good for a 4.44 ERA (4.00 xERA) and a 30.9%/9.0% K%/BB% in 125.2 IP on the season, which is a damn good rookie year. A shoulder injury knocked out one and a half months of his season, and his lightly used changeup got hit up, but he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. Use the inflated ERA to buy while you still can. 2023 Projection: 10/3.65/1.20/188 in 160 IP

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – Ashcraft wasn’t able to miss nearly enough bats in the majors with a 15.3% K% and 18.6% whiff%. It led to a 4.89 ERA in 105 IP. There are reasons for hope though. His 97.3 MPH cutter, which he went to over half the time (50.7% usage), generally got the job done with a 2 degree launch and 85.6 MPH EV against. His slider was an above average pitch with a .269 xwOBA and 32% whiff%. He induced weak contact (86.9 MPH EV), kept the ball in the ground (3.8 degree launch), and threw the ball over the plate (career best at any level 6.5% BB%). His 4.02 xERA looks much better than the inflated ERA. Ashcraft also realizes the almost all fastball approach (he threw a sinker 21.5% of the time too) isn’t going to cut it, and has been working hard on his changeup and splitter this off-season. He should go for a super cheap price this off-season, and I will almost certainly be grabbing him in every league. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.32/129 in 155 IP

Hitters

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – India’s low EV from 2021 (87.6 MPH) came back to bite him in 2022, and it actually got even worse, tanking to 85.1 MPH. His speed tanked too from an 85.6 percentile speed rank to 58.9 percentile. He battled a variety of injuries all season long, but it’s hard to place all of the blame on them. You’re going to get dinged up as a major leaguer. It was a disaster sophomore season all around. We’ve seen many players bounce back from the classic sophomore slump, and he’s still in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. You don’t want to write off such a talented player like India after one bad, injury filled year. This is a bet on the player and the talent, because the underlying numbers are not kind to him. 2023 Projection: 76/20/72/.256/.333/.427/9

Wil Myers CIN, 1B/OF, 32.4 – Myers fantasy value was in it’s final death throes, but his value got one of those double paddle electrical impulses to the chest by signing with Cincinnati. It’s not like getting hit by those paddles returns you to prime form, but at least he has a pulse. He goes from one of the worst ballparks in the league to one of the best. He’s been a below average hitter for the last two years with high K rates (30.1% K% in 2022) and mediocre EV numbers (91.4 MPH FB/LD EV), but neither of them are in hopeless territory, and he still has his athleticism with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m far from targeting him, but he’s an interesting later round pick for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 66/19/69/.251/.322/.429/9

Jake Fraley CIN, OF, 27.10 – Fraley had a strong 2022 with a .812 OPS in 68 games, but I’m not buying in. His 85.1 MPH EV is terrible and it’s been bad his entire career. His hit tool took a big step forward with a career best 21.9% K%, but it’s still only average at best with a .259 BA and .248 xBA. And while he has some speed with a 28 ft/sec sprint, he only stole 4 bags last year. You certainly can’t count on the power, it’s doubtful he will be a positive in BA, and you can’t count on big stolen base totals. 2023 Projection: 66/14/59/.250/.331/.420/9

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 26.6 – It’s been said a million and one times, but no other position has as many guys who pop up and perform to truly elite levels. It’s why going cheap on closer is a very effective strategy. Diaz made his pro debut in 2022 and was immediately elite with a pitching line of 1.84/0.96/83/33 in 63.2 IP. He has that classic closer profile with 95.7 MPH gas combined with a plus slider (.234 xwOBA and 45% whiff%). He misses bats (32.5% K%) and induces weak contact (86.7 MPH EV against). Poor control is the one thing that can hold him back with a 12.9% BB%, but his control really wasn’t that horrific in his minor league career, so I’m not super concerned about that. He seems locked in as Cincy’s closer and is a great 2nd/3rd tier closer to grab after the top guys go for a much much higher price. 2023 Projection: 4/3.22/1.16/85/26 saves in 65 IP

Top 20 Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He then played in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he ran a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

2) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

3) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

4) Spencer Steer CIN, SS/2B/3B, 25.4 – Low EV numbers in a prospects MLB debut are a bit scary to me, and Steer’s 84.7 MPH EV in 108 PA put a halt to his hype train from the destruction he laid in the upper minors. He slashed .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 4 steals, and a 89/51 K/BB in 106 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit the ball harder in the minors, but he’s no Aaron Judge, and at 25 years old already, it’s hard to say there is much more power coming. It wasn’t all bad in the majors as he showed a strong plate approach with a 24.1%/10.2% K%/BB% and an above average 24.8% Chase%. His 90.1 MPH FB/LD EV also isn’t as hopeless as his average, and I don’t want to put too much weight on the small sample. He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut. 2023 Projection: 44/14/42/.250/.316/.419/3 Prime Projection: 77/23/76/.267/.334/.446/5

5) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 19.7 – Arroyo had a huge start to the season, cracking 12 homers in his first 63 games, but he hit only 2 homers in 53 games the rest of the way. His K% took a step back too, putting up a 22.8% K% in 87 games with Seattle and a 28.4% K% in 27 games after getting traded to Cincinnati. He had a high BABIP and a mediocre 8.5% BB%. He’s not some insane athlete, the hit tool has risk, and there isn’t big raw power. I say all this to just give some caution, because he had a damn exciting triple slash of .293/.366/.480 with 14 homers and 27 steals at Single-A. The upside isn’t huge, but it’s hard not to be impressed by this level of performance from someone who was 18 years old for most of the year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/72/.258/.320/.427/18

6) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.4 – Strand has destroyed every level he’s been at, putting up a 1.103 OPS in 2021 in the Big 12, a 1.022 OPS at Single-A in 2021, a .986 OPS at High-A in 2022, and a .934 OPS at Double-A in 2022. He has big time power, smashing 32 homers in 122 games split between High-A and Double-A this year. The plate approach isn’t great with a 25.0%/4.8% K%/BB% at Double-A, and he’s not a good defensive player, so he will likely have to scratch and claw for playing time. The trade to Cincinnati from Minnesota gives him both a major ballpark upgrade and also an opportunity upgrade. 2023 Projection: 11/4/13/.233/.298/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/81/.247/.316/.462/3

7) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.6 – Jorge completely backed up his big 2021 in the DSL, slashing .261/.405/.529 with 7 homers, 27 steals, and a 26.6%/16.2% K%/BB% in 42 games in stateside rookie ball. He’s not an imposing figure at 5’10”, 160 pounds, but he can certainly put a charge into the ball in the mold of a Jose Ramirez, and he’s an excellent base runner with plus speed. The strikeout rate is a little higher than optimal, but don’t let his diminutive stature fool you, Jorge has legitimate upside and could explode up rankings in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/18/68/.263/.337/.423/25

8) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Stewart is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential to hit for both power and average. He put up a 5/4 K/BB with 4 doubles and a 135 wRC+ in 8 games in his pro debut at rookie ball, and he didn’t show any major groundball issues with a 42.1% GB%. He might end up moving to 1B, but he has the bat to profile anywhere. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.268/.341/.476/4

9) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – McLain had a big power/speed season at Double-A with 17 homers and 27 steals in 103 games at Double-A, but his .232 BA and 28.1% K% is concerning, and he tanked in the AFL with a .657 OPS and 31.2% K%. He’s not a big raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds, so the hit tool trouble is particularly troubling. 2023 Projection: 9/2/11/.223/.291/.403/3 Prime Projection: 69/18/73/.238/.317/.421/16

10) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 20.4 – Allen’s power was much worse than anticipated. He hit only 3 homers in 91 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. There was tons of weak contact that led to a .225 BA. His contact rates weren’t all that good either with a 24% K%. He’s a great athlete with plus speed (43 steals) and more raw power in the tank at 6’2”, 190 pounds, so the upside is still high, but the lack of power was extreme enough for me to shy away from him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.240/.317/.418/22

11) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 20.0 – Petty’s stuff wasn’t as big as advertised with his fastball sitting around 93-94 MPH rather than the mid to upper 90’s we were expecting/hoping for. Maybe he was taking a little bit off to help his control/command, because he was better than expected there with a 7.7% BB%. He put up a 3.48 ERA with a 23.7% K%. We thought he was high risk/high reward coming into 2022, and he ended up being the opposite of that. He’s now relatively safe but the upside seems limited, especially with Great American Ballpark waiting for him. Maybe he’ll start airing it out more in 2023 to reclaim his upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.28/153 in 160 IP

12) Leonardo Balcazar CIN, SS, 18.9 – Balcazar ripped up the DSL in 2021 with a 135 wRC+, and he did the same stateside in 2022 with a 144 wRC+ in 42 games. His 25% K% is on the high side, but he has an exciting blend of tools with emerging power (4 homers in 42 games), speed (13 steals), and a mature plate approach (10.7% BB%). He’s flying too far under the radar. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/21/74/.263/.334/.432/14

13) Victor Acosta CIN, SS, 18.10 – Acosta couldn’t build on his standout DSL performance in 2021. His OPS dropped to .707 and he went 5 for 12 on the bases in 42 games stateside. It wasn’t a complete disaster with a 22.4%/12.7% K%/BB% that led to a slightly above average wRC+, but his value took a big hit. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 70/14/61/.253/.324/.410/11

14) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 21.11 – Phillips has major bullpen risk, but he can be an elite back end guy even if he does end up there. He has big time stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average curve. It led to 150 K’s in 109.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The bullpen risk comes from his poor control (66 walks) and weak changeup. He also performed much worse at Double-A (4.93 ERA in 45.2 IP) than at High-A (2.95 ERA in 64 IP). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.43/1.19/83/25 saves in 65 IP

15) Brandon Williamson CIN, LHP, 25.0 – Williamson was getting hyped up pretty hard last off-season, and I’m quite happy I held strong with my evaluation of him as more of a #4 type starter. He was bad in 2022 with a pitching line of 4.11/1.56/123/77 in 122.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and his control was terrible with a 13.9% BB%. He’s a skinny 6’6” lefty with a starter’s pitch mix, so even at 25 years old there is room for improvement, but it’s a back end starter’s profile right now. 2023 Projection: 2/4.55/1.42/40 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/162 in 165 IP

16) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 23.4 – The 6’3”, 170 pound Cerda has no joke power with a big righty swing that does damage. He hits the ball damn hard and ended up with 24 homers in 124 games split between High-A and Double-A. The hit tool is a major issue though as the power came with a .208 BA and 33.2% K%. Cincy’s current OF is a dumpster fire and there really isn’t any help on the way in the minors, so Cerda is in the perfect organization and ballpark to get the most out of his profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/24/75/.222/.314/.456/5

17) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 17.3 – The 2nd best catcher in the international class, Duno is a power hitting beast in the mold of Diego Cartaya. He’s already built like a man with a strong base (3:25 mark of the video). He’s a good athlete and swings a quick bat. He’s not far off from Ethan Salas, and might have more fantasy upside especially if he stays in Cincy. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 68/27/81/.251/.326/.472/3

18) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 19.1 – Rodriguez is a little guy at 5’8” with a plus hit tool. He hit .359 with a 7.1% K% in rookie ball. There is little to no power projection (3 homers in 49 total games), and he’s not that fast, so it’s not a high upside profile. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/13/63/.278/.332/.411/7

19) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 18.5 – Coming off signing for $2.7 million, Cabrera didn’t exactly stand out in the DSL with only 1 homer, 5 steals, and a mediocre 22.2%/7.2% K%/BB% in 45 games, but it was still good for an above average 108 wRC+. I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t have to pull the rip cord completely too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/20/74/.258/.324/.434/11

20) Carlos Sanchez CIN, 3B/OF, 18.3 – Sanchez was a DSL standout, slashing .355/.505/.442 with 2 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.4%/22% K%/BB%. It was good for a 169 wRC+. There isn’t much info out there on him, but I don’t care what level you’re playing at, if you get on base more than 50% of the time, that is impressive. He’s at least worth being on your radar to see what he can do stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/14/54/.267/.334/.409/8

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Resist the urge to trade down in First Year Player Drafts. With First Year Player Draft season ramping up (my Top 100+ FYPD Rankings are dropping this week), now is the time of year where you are sure to get peppered with tons of, “Hey man, you have interest in trading your 5th overall pick for my 11th and 16th?” Every dynasty manager has that Bill Belichick in them, trying to tinker, strategize, and out smart the competition, but in 99% of dynasty leagues I’ve played in it rarely makes sense to trade down. In most leagues there is a surplus of prospects available anyway. Either they can be picked up freely during the year, or there is a prospect max per team that creates a prospect crunch. Even if those don’t apply to you, you don’t need a million prospects in your system. One gem is worth more than several decent guys. Hold strong in your draft position, dodge all of those shady trade offers, and pick the best available player.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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