Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Cincinnati Reds 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Hitters

Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. He ranked 9th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B, 24.4 – Strand was so good in his rookie year it might have pushed Joey Votto right out the door before he could have his final year retirement tour (he still wants to come back to the Reds for one more year, we’ll see). He cracked 13 homers with a 10.5% barrel%, 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV, 18.6 degree launch, and .347 xwOBA in 63 games. Even his hit tool was pretty good with a .270 BA and .268 xBA. The plate approach wasn’t great as expected with a 28.6%/5.8% K%/BB%, but he proved he’s capable of making improvements in that area at Triple-A with a 21.8%/10.4% K%/BB%. Speaking of Triple-A, he decimated the level with 20 homers and a 155 wRC+ in just 67 games. Strand is on a beeline to be one of the premier power hitters in the game. 2024 Projection: 78/32/90/.252/.318/.499/5

Spencer Steer CIN, 1B/3B/OF, 26.4 – I named Steer a target last off-season and finished his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut.” As I predicted, his poor EV numbers in his rookie year (84.7 MPH) came way up to 88.7 MPH, and he most certainly did damage, slashing .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 15 steals, and a 20.9%/10.2% K%/BB% in 156 games. The underlying numbers back up the production with average to above average marks everywhere you look. The one issue is that he was poor defensively everywhere he played, and Cincinnati is stacked with the talent right now. A playing time crunch is coming and Steer could be a victim of it, unless Cincinnati can make a trade for pitching this off-season, which they clearly should. 2024 Projection: 79/24/81/.266/.341/.457/13

Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal and should be valued as a top 50 dynasty asset. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

Pitchers

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 24.8 – Buy low on Hunter Greene. We’ve been taught over and over again to not throw the towel in on elite pitching prospects if they don’t immediately dominate their first few years in the league, and Greene has all of the ingredients to be a next level breakout as he gains more experience. He had a 4.82 ERA in 112 IP, but the 3.82 xERA shows he was unlucky, and the 30.5%/9.6% K%/BB% is screaming future ace breakout. The stuff is fire with a 98.3 MPH fastball, a plus slider that notched a 39.2% whiff%, and an improving changeup that put up a respectable .314 xwOBA against. I know the fastball gets hit harder than you would expect, but as his command improves and as he continues to tinker with his arsenal, I’m betting on him figuring it out. This is going to be one of those breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight. 2024 Projection: 11/3.72/1.25/200 in 160 IP

Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 24.10 – Abbott took the majors by storm in his first 10 starts at the level with with a 1.90 ERA and 66/19 K/BB in 61.2 IP, but the league caught up with him in the 2nd half with a 6.42 ERA and 54/25 K/BB in his final 47.2 IP. The stuff is solid, but not truly standout with a 92.7 MPH fastball, he got hit very hard with a 91.2 MPH EV against, and the control is below average with a 9.6% BB%. Those were some of the reasons I wasn’t fully buying into Abbott when he was crushing the minors, but I don’t want to make the same mistake for his 2nd time through the majors. He still had a strong debut overall with a 3.87 ERA and 26.1% K% in 109.1 IP. He has a legit 4 pitch mix where the sweeper notched an elite .182 xwOBA against, and the changeup missed bats with a 39.4% whiff%. He definitely has the collection of skills to be an impact fantasy starter, I’m just not sure I would put top of the rotation expectations on him, especially in Cincinnati. 2024 Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/187 in 170 IP

Bullpen

Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 27.6 – Diaz was much better in the first half (1.80 ERA with a 40.4% K% in 35 IP) than the 2nd half (4.45 ERA with a 20% in 32.1 IP), but nothing really changed in his profile, so I’m leaning towards it being small sample reliever variance. It all evened out to a 3.07 ERA and 30.1%/12.6% K%/BB% in 67.1 IP. The slightly more concerning thing is that the stuff wasn’t quite as good in 2023 as it was in 2022 with his fastball down 1.3 MPH to 94.5 MPH, and it got hit harder too with a 90.2 MPH EV against vs. 86.6 MPH in 2022. The slider also wasn’t as good with the whiff% dropping 7 percentage points to 38%. Some of this feels like slicing and dicing the numbers a little too much, which is why I’m still projecting him as elite, but if he struggles, it’s not like their weren’t some red flags. 2024 Projection: 6/3.02/1.12/85/36 saves in 65 IP

Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

2) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 20.7 – Arroyo got off to a cold start in April and May, be he turned it on in June and never looked back, slashing .281/.360/.480 with 9 homers, 25 steals, and a 20.1%/10.1% K%/BB% in his final 89 games. 4 of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 153 wRC+, albeit with a 30%/5% K%/BB%. He’s a switch hitter who hits well from both sides of the plate, he has plus speed, and at 6’0”, 175 pounds, there is definitely room for him to add more power. I’m not sure I see a star when I watch him, but he’s still quite young, and I wouldn’t completely rule that out as a possibility at this point. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/18/74/.253/.320/.428/25

3) Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 7th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder is a relatively safe, quick moving college arm. None of his stuff is jaw dropping, but he has plus control of 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93-94 MPH fastball, slider and changeup. It led to a pitching line of 1.87/0.95/143/24 in 120.1 IP in the ACC. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with an athletic delivery, he works fast, and he throws strikes with good stuff. Take a star away for landing in Cincy’s hitter’s haven, but I wouldn’t let the landing spot completely spoil you on him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/185 in 180 IP

4) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 21.0 – If Petty was throwing as hard he was throwing in his draft year (mid to upper 90’s), he would be an elite pitching prospect right now, but he’s settled in as a low to mid 90’s guy. Even with the modest velocity, he does everything else so well, this version of him might actually be better than the version we thought we were getting. He’s now a pitcher’s pitcher with elite control (5.5% BB%) and a very diverse pitch mix. He throws so many different pitches that all look pretty similar out of his hand and are all at around similar velocities, but they break a different way as they get closer to the plate. He throws a hard gyro slider, a hard split change, a 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, and a slightly slower breaking ball. He’s a nightmare to face. You can almost say he’s a junk baller type, but he throws his secondaries so hard it wouldn’t exactly be accurate. He dominated with a 1.72 ERA and 24.1%/5.5% K%/BB% in 68 IP at mostly High-A. He closed out year at Double-A and was equally as dominant. The floor might be higher than the ceiling at the moment, but if he all of a sudden finds that old velocity of his, watch out. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.74/1.19/166 in 170 IP

5) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 22.11 – Phillips’ control took a monster step forward at Double-A with a 9.5% BB% (14% BB% in 2022), but it proved to be a pre-tacked ball mirage. His walk rate exploded again at Triple-A and MLB with a 16.9% BB% and 13.5% BB%, respectively. When MLB tests out new rules/balls in the minors, they tend to make their way to the majors, so I wouldn’t be shocked if MLB incorporates a tackier ball at some point in the future. It will majorly help poor control guys like Phillips if they do, because his stuff is utter filth with a 96.4 MPH fastball and an elite slider that notched a 48.9% whiff% and .152 xwOBA in 20.2 MLB IP. With the pre-tacked balls at Double-A, he had a 3.34 ERA in 64.2 IP, but that jumped to 4.69 at Triple-A and 6.97 in the majors. The stuff is tantalizing and makes you want to bet on him, but the control is in the major bullpen danger zone with the normal baseballs. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.37/88 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.32/170 in 150 IP

6) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 20.4 – Stewart is proving to have an elite plate approach with a 15.2%/17.1% K%/BB% in 88 games at Single-A (128 wRC+), which he followed up with a 13.7%/13.7% K%/BB% in 29 games at High-A (127 wRC+). And he’s not the type of plus approach guy who doesn’t have much else to offer, Stewart is an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 215 pounds. He hit only 12 homers in 117 total games, but he hit the ball fairly hard, the raw power is only going up from here, and he didn’t have any major groundball issues. He also stole 15 bags, which shows his speed might be getting underrated. The biggest problem is his defense, and in a jam packed organization like Cincinnati, that could become an issue down the road. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/88/.274/.351/.473/8

7) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 19.5 – Here’s how I closed out Cabrera’s Top 1,000 blurb last off-season, ranking him 985th overall, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t want to pull the rip cord too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated.” That proved wise with Cabrera as he followed up a mediocre pro debut in the DSL in 2022 with a full scale breakout in 2023. He slashed .350/.469/.559 with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 20%/12% K%/BB% in 39 games at stateside rookie, and then he went to full season ball and put up a 159 wRC+ in 5 games. He has a good feel to hit, a strong plate approach, and a potentially above average power/speed combo. He’s bigger and hit the ball harder than the next two guys on this list, which is why I have him slotted ahead of them. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 81/20/77/.267/.330/.441/18

8) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 20.6 – Jorge is a small guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard with low EV’s and hard hit rates. It makes me a little hesitant to rank him too highly, but he’s the type to get the most out his raw power through quality of contact. He pulled the ball over 50% of the time and he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He’s a destroyer of levels with a 173 wRC+ in 2021 in the DSL, a 151 wRC+ in stateside rookie in 2022, and a 140 wRC+ at Single-A in 2023 (he struggled at High-A to close out the year with a 86 wRC+). What you are really buying here is the very mature plate approach (19.7%/13.2% K%/BB%) and plus speed (31 steals). If the raw power meaningfully ticks up in the future, he will be a fantasy beast, and even if it doesn’t, he has the skillset to make a fantasy impact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/15/61/.263/.337/.421/26

9) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 20.1 – Rodriguez looks like such a natural and easy hitter at the dish. He has a calm setup before exploding with a pretty nasty lefty swing. He’s done nothing but produce in pro ball, and that continued in 2023, slashing .293/.347/.510 with 16 homers, 18 steals, and an 18.9%/6.1% K%/BB% in 101 games at Single-A before slowing down at High-A (88 wRC+ in 14 games). The problem is that he is a small guy at 5’8” who doesn’t have a ton of raw power. He also doesn’t walk a ton. Projecting that out on the MLB level, it could end up looking like a bottom of the order contact/speed play, but maybe that is just the small man bias kicking in. If he was taller, his hype would be a lot louder right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/16/69/.273/.328/.427/23

10) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Collier had a very lackluster season with only 6 homers, a 53% GB%, and a .706 OPS in 111 games at Single-A. There is no doubt his value is lower today than it was last off-season, but there are enough positives to think the best is yet to come. He was very young for his draft class and was just 18 years old playing the entire season in full season ball. He hit the ball very hard, especially for his age, and he showed a strong plate approach with a 23%/12.4% K%/BB%. His 98 wRC+ was also nearly average. If he can raise his launch angle, and I would bet on him being able to do so, he can still very easily live up to hit plus hit/power profile coming out of the draft. He’s a hold. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/24/84/.265/.334/.468/5

Just Missed

11) Blake Dunn CIN, OF, 25.7

12) Rece Hinds CIN, OF, 23.7

13) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.3

14) Lyon Richardson CIN, RHP, 24.2

15) Ty Floyd CIN, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 38th overall, the 6’2”, 200 pound Floyd has a plus to double plus mid 90’s fastball that he leans on heavily. It led to a 4.35 ERA with a 31% K% in 91 IP. There are more than a few heavy fastball usage pitchers who are doing well in the majors right now, but those guys generally have plus control and/or better secondaries than Floyd. Floyd’s control is below average with a 9.6% BB%, but it was improving as the year went on, and his slider, curve and change are about average at best. If the secondaries and/or control take a step forward, there is very real upside here, and I don’t mind targeting him at all as a later round arm if you focus on offense with your earlier picks. He ranked 37th overall in my End of Season Top 54 FYPD Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/165 in 160 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I talked about this in my Pittsburgh Pirates Strategy Section, but it’s worth pounding the point home in the Reds section as well, I’m salivating at what “Vegas” is going to set the Cincinnati Reds win total O/U at this off-season. I’ve been absolutely lights out with MLB win total over/unders these past two years. I wrote/tweeted about my bets on the Orioles and Rangers last off-season, and I did the same for my Twins bet the off-season before that. I think “Vegas” underrates the bubbling minor league systems of up and coming teams, and the Reds are the exact type of team they’ve underrated in the past. They are loaded with talent, they have great depth, and their pitching will get underrated with possible breakouts from Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. Arms like Phillips, Richardson, Petty and Lowder are all knocking on the door as well. This a team ready to explode, and I doubt their win O/U will fully reflect that.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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