I’m doing these Rundowns all Spring and all season over on the Patreon, with a few per month free here on the Brick Wall. I’m just psyched to have baseball back! Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/25):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

Grayson Rodriguez – BAL, RHP, 25.3/Gerrit Cole – NYY, RHP, 34.7/George Kirby – SEA, RHP, 27.2 – We’ve come to the part of spring training where pitchers start dropping like flies. Here is what I wrote about Grayson on Sad Dynasty Rundown Day (don’t ask) after his terrible outing, “And while he said he wasn’t trying, he also said he changed his delivery this off-season to take pressure off the twice injured lat and to put it on the scapular. I’m no scientist, but that seems like a recipe to just hurt a different part of your body.” … and right on cue, Grayson goes down with elbow inflammation which required a cortisone shot. Gerrit Cole looks like he’s headed for Tommy John surgery. And Kirby will open the season on the IL with shoulder inflammation that doesn’t seem overly serious. I bring these injuries up because I get a ton of trade questions that ask if should I trade “top hitting prospect X” for “established pitcher X” when I have the pitcher ranked a bit ahead of the hitter in my rankings. And my response is often the same. Which is that I absolutely hate doing trades like that, regardless of the rankings, for this very reason. There are scenarios where I would simply refuse to trade any of my truly top hitting prospects for any pitcher. It’s the type of trade I make only when I’m truly all in. I much prefer to build my staff by finding underrated pitchers (which there are always tons of) rather than paying up for the hyped to death aces. You of course still need good pitchers to win, so you are going to have to pick your spots eventually, but trading an elite or near elite hitting prospect for any pitcher should be a last case scenario. You should exhaust all other avenues first, regardless of what a general dynasty ranking says, even my own.

Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 23.11 – Volpe is looking for a bounce back year 3 after a disappointing sophomore year, but even his homers are unimpressive with him tapping a 90 MPH homer off Michael McGreevy. The swing looked super slow during the homer too, which is a major concern of mine with Volpe. He just doesn’t swing a quick bat with a 69.5 MPH swing last year and a 70.9 MPH swing in the 2nd half of 2023. He doesn’t make a ton of contact, he doesn’t have a great approach, and he doesn’t have a ton of raw power, which makes me a bit concerned about what Volpe’s actual ceiling. He runs, he’s young, and he’s excellent on defense, so it’s not like I hate him. I still have him #101 on the Top 1,000 2025 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), but I just don’t love that slow ass swing.

Zach Dezenzo – HOU, 1B, 24.11 – Now that is the type of swing I like to see. Dezenzo used his elite bat speed to drill a homer out to right center. He’s competing for a job this spring, and while he’s not off to the best start with a 89 wRC+, let’s see if this can kick off a hot streak. His glove is a problem, and it could be the thing that keeps in the minors or on the bench, but he’s 6’5”, 220 pounds with an elite 75.4 MPH swing and a well above average 28.3 ft/sec sprint. These are the elite athletes I love betting on, and there is definitely opportunity in Houston. He’s a target of mine long term.

Tomoyuki Sugano – BAL, RHP, 35.6 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 5/0 K/BB vs. like a 40%-ish Twins lineup. Sugano has yet to give up a run in 7 IP this spring. He’s missing bats too with a 26.9% K%. He’s coming off a season in Japan where he put up a 1.67 ERA. We might have to start putting some respect on this man’s name. There is a decent chance he’s actually damn good despite not having huge velocity and huge K rates in Japan. Don’t dismiss him so quickly.

Clay Holmes – NYM, RHP, 30.4 – 3.2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. 50/50 Washington lineup. Holmes continues to prove the velocity isn’t going to fall off a cliff in the rotation, holding steady at 95.4 MPH, and he’s also proving he has the pitch mix to start with a 6 pitch mix. Most notably, the changeup notched a 75% whiff% in this one. Holmes is obliterating the spring and any value on him is so far gone it’s not even funny. He was a great target this off-season, but now during draft season, you are going to have to pay up full price. I still like him, and I think he’ll be worth the price, but there are no deals to be found here anymore.

Aroon Escobar – PHI, 2B, 20.3 – I generally hate players who are “old” for their rookie ball leagues. These include 18 year olds repeating the DSL and 19 year olds in stateside rookie ball, but with the recent contraction of the minor leagues, I might have to loosen up my stance on that. With fewer teams, more deserving guys are going to repeat rookie ball levels, and on the flip side, Single-A is getting more rookie ball-ish itself. High-A might really be the true “full season ball” jump that Single-A used to be. It’s something to keep in mind, and something that I have to continue adjusting to myself. Enter Aroon, who destroying rookie ball as a 19 year old with a 172 wRC+, 3 homers, 9 steals, and a 9.6/20.2 K%/BB% in 24 games. I wasn’t in on him because of his age, but I’m feeling regret for that after he crushed him first homer this spring at a grown man’s 108.2 MPH. He now has a 505 wRC+ in 2 PA ;). He’s not necessarily a big tools guy, which is another reason I wasn’t in on him, but he can end up a very strong across the board contributor. He deserved more respect from me.

Gavin Williams – CLE, RHP, 25.8 – 3.2 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. a very weak White Sox lineup. Granted, I think I could have racked up a few K’s against these guys (Bobby Dalbec and his 46.2% K% in the majors last year K’d 3 times in this one), but there is still no denying how fire Williams’ has looked this spring. The 95.3 MPH fastball put up a 50% whiff% and the curve and slider were whiff machines too, leading to a 55% whiff% overall. He now has a 1.33 ERA with a 50.0%/6.3 K%/BB% in 8 IP. It’s only spring, and the competition isn’t great, but this is exactly what we wanted to see coming off the down and injured 2024. His value is definitely back on the rise, even if I would be a little careful about just drafting your team based on who is having the best spring trainings. I remember when the default used to be that spring didn’t matter. Now, my goodness how it’s flipped. It’s like spring is all that matters ha. Can’t deny that I feel partly responsible for this, because when I started writing Spring Rundowns years ago, nobody else was writing them and there really wasn’t that much spring content. Now it’s a deluge hah.

Jac Caglianone – KCR, 1B, 22.2 – Speaking of overrating spring, Jac is a man possessed, utterly obliterating a 114.6 MPH, 444 foot bomb for his 3rd in 14 PA. Call me crazy, but I don’t think he sees that pitch in a real game. He’s not only showing off power though, the plate approach looks excellent as well with a 7.1/21.4 K%/BB%. Jac is an undeniable beast, and I have zero issue taking him extremely high in First Year Player Drafts, but personally, I’m not going to rearrange my entire FYPD Rankings just based on who is having the best spring. I always said there is a top tier of 11 guys, and if any of them ended up the best player in the class, I wouldn’t be surprised at all, but I’m going to stick with my off-season order.

Richard Fitts – BOS, RHP, 25.3 – 2.1 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 4/3 K/BB vs. a very weak Braves lineup. He now has a 1.42 ERA with a 32.1/14.3 K%/BB% in 6.1 IP. Fitts came into spring a new man with upper 90’s heat and filthy stuff, and that was on display yesterday as well. He was mostly a control over stuff guy coming into this year, but it sure looks like he’s changing that profile into a stuff over control guy now, and for fantasy, that is definitely what we want to see, but he still has to prove he can truly harness the stuff in a starting role. He’s so obviously a major riser this spring, and with Bello starting the year on the IL, there is a rotation spot to be won, so he makes for a great underrated target. I’m just worried with how much hype he’s getting, he’s not actually going to be all that underrated.

Jack Kochanowicz – LAA, RHP, 24.3 – The most boring pitcher alive keeps churning out good outings, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 2/0 K/BB vs a bad Reds lineup. He now has a 1.00 ERA with a 17.6/2.9 K%/BB% in 9 IP. The K% is at least much better than the 9.4% K% he put in the majors last year, but even that with that 9.4% K%, he still pitched well with a 3.99 ERA in 65.1 IP. It’s all sinker all the time, which is just quite boring, but it’s been undeniably effective for awhile now. He doesn’t seem to have a rotation spot, but I guess he’s not the worst guy to roster in deeper leagues.

Brady House – WAS, 3B, 21.10 – House is oh so quietly having an excellent spring and showing improvement in the main area he needed to show improvement in. He went 1 for 1 with a walk yesterday and now has a 153 wRC+ with a 4.8/14.3 K%/BB% in 21 PA. That 3B job is just waiting for him, and he’s already spent a good amount of time at Triple-A last year. He’s a sneaky candidate to make a big impact in 2025. He doesn’t get the respect he deserves both in the short term and the long term.

Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.6 – 0 for 4 with 2 K’s and now has a 39 wRC+ with a 32% K% in 25 PA … you are really going to have to start hitting soon if you want to lock in that vacant DH job

Evan Carter – TEX, OF, 22.7 – 0 for 2 with a K and now has a 9 wRC+ with a 33.3/4.8 K%/BB% in 21 PA … this is not giving much hope that the ominous back injury is okay

Jordan Hicks – SFG, RHP, 28.8 – 2.2 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1/2 K/BB vs. a Quad-A San Diego lineup. He now has a 6.75 ERA with a 17.4/13.0 K%/BB% in 4 IP … I guess one year of not pitching well as a starter wasn’t enough for San Francisco. They want to run it back …

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON & SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (analysis, projections, & prime projections for every player)
-TOP 500 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 146 2025 FYPD RANKS (+FYPD Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSITION TARGETS
-OBP TOP 400 2025 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
-2025 DEEP DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: Top 78 C–Top 83 1B–Top 98 2B–Top 109 3B–Top 154 SS–Top 260 OF-Top 305 SP-Top 76 RP
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)