Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/3/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/3/23):

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-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES ALL SEASON
-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
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-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-9 MILD PREDICTIONS FOR 2023 ROOKIES
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-2023 FYPD STRATEGY &TARGET GUIDE

Trent Grisham SDP, OF, 26.5 – It looked like Grisham’s power was leveling up in spring, and it’s now transferring into the regular season with him destroying a 107.4 MPH, 419 foot bomb out to centerfield for his first of the year. He now has a 97.6 MPH EV in 11 batted balls to go along with a .948 OPS. I said it in spring, but even a modest power uptick would do wonders for his flyball heavy profile. It wouldn’t be the first time someone had a mid 20’s power breakout, and Grisham wasn’t coming from that low of a starting point to begin with. He’s a definite contender to be one of 2023’s big breakouts and is an early season buy for me.

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – The big breakout is percolating and it just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Franco went 2 for 3 with a double and is now 7 for 11 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 7.7%/15.4% K%/BB%. He has a 91.3 MPH EV and a 11.9 degree launch. It’s obviously silly early, but he has the kind of generational baseball talent that makes a silly good season well within the realm of possibility. My mind is telling me it’s still too early, but my body, my body’s telling me yes (on 2nd thought, maybe I shouldn’t be quoting R. Kelly lyrics 🙂

Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s. He’s now hitting .154 with a 42.9% K% in 14 PA. Kelenic pulled the ole’ Spring rope a dope on us once again.

Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 30.7 – I named Springs a player to target back on September 26th in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets, because not only did I suspect his hype would rise the more the off-season went along (it did), but also because of just how good he is. He proved it in his first start of the season, going 6 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 12/1 K/BB. A start like that will close just about any buy window that might have still been open.

Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/1 K/BB vs. Pitt. Ashcraft is another IBW favorite and a Starting Pitcher Target who started to get more people jumping on the bandwagon towards the end of the off-season. He only notched a 21% whiff% in this one, which isn’t super encouraging, but he can breakout even without a true strikeout explosion because of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. Even a modest K uptick could have him putting up some Framber Valdez-lite type seasons.

Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – Don’t shoot the messenger, but despite India’s hot start (he went 2 for 4 yesterday and has a 1.356 OPS in 13 PA), I’m concerned he still only has an 83.1 MPH EV. He showed in 2021 he can have a big year without having a huge average EV, but your margin of error gets a lot smaller. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I wouldn’t just start valuing him as if he was back quite yet.

Chris Bassitt TOR, RHP, 34.1 – 3.1 IP, 10 hits, 9 ER, 0/0 K/BB vs. St. Louis. Bassitt was taking it sooooo easy during spring training with his velocity down like 4 MPH, he never even bothered to truly get prepared for the regular season. This is what happens when you don’t prepare. His velocity was up from spring, but was still down 1.7 MPH to 91.1 MPH. I suspect that will continue to rise over the next month and as he basically uses April to truly ramp up. This is the same thing that happened with Manoah in his first start of the season. Definitely don’t sell low on either, but both should maybe consider actually using spring training to be ready for Opening Day.

Mike Clevinger CHW, RHP, 32.3 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB. The fastball was up 1.1 MPH to 94.7 MPH and he put up a 30% whiff% overall. Many pitchers don’t fully return to health until their 2nd year back from Tommy John, and it looks like Clevinger is taking that path.

Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. Miami. The fastball sat 96.8 MPH and the ghost fork put up a 64% whiff%. He likely got a bit fortunate with a 93.3 MPH EV against, and the fastball in particular was very hittable with 0 whiffs, but this was a very encouraging first start. Big stuff. Missed bats. Good pitching line.

Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 22.11 – Gorman is carrying over his hot spring into the regular season, smashing 2 homers yesterday at 105.2 MPH and 104.4 MPH. He now has a 1.726 OPS in 13 PA. In my 3/28/23 Spring Dynasty Rundown I wrote that “Jordan Walker’s blinding hype has made everyone forget that Nolan Gorman was once upon a time labeled the next big slugger for the Cardinals,” and I kept the faith on him in my Top 1,000, ranking him 182nd overall. I’m buying the breakout, and is an early “buy high” candidate before it becomes even more obvious.

Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B/OF, 26.3 – Donovan was another player who I was buying into all of March due to his excellent spring, and the regular season hasn’t slowed him down at all. He smoked his 2nd homer of the year in just 3 games after hitting only 5 in 126 games in 2022. He’s for real.

Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4/Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 24.6/ Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – – St. Louis’ biggest problem is that they are too damn good at development. There is no where for all of these guys to play. Burleson had a huge day at the dish, going 3 for 4 with a 2 doubles and a homer. Dylan Carlson also went 3 for 4, while Jordan Walker went 1 for 3 with a double. The “problem” will eventually work itself out, but until then, everyone might be getting some extra rest here and there.

Xander Bogaerts SDP, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts ripped his 2nd homer of the season with a 413 foot shot and now has a 1.471 OPS in 17 PA. He could end up being a good example of just not overthinking things too much. Sure the underlying numbers weren’t great last year, and sure he got a big ballpark downgrade, but the guy has been an all star caliber ballplayer for years now and is only 30. You want to keep betting proven talent.

Noah Syndergaard LAD, RHP, 30.7 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB vs. ARI. The velocity uptick didn’t come with a 92.7 MPH sinker, but that doesn’t mean LA still won’t work their magic. Missing bats is the most important thing, and he missed bats in this one with a 29% whiff% on the back of his changeup (60% whiff%). I was buying once he signed with LA, and I’m still buying.

Tyler Anderson LAA, LHP, 33.3 – 6 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB vs. OAK. LA’s magic pixie dust might just have some staying power, or maybe it was just going against Oakland’s terrible lineup that did the trick. I think I could throw up some zero’s against their rag tag crew of misfits.

Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.6 – Colas said he wanted to get more frisky on the bases, and he put his money where his mouth is stealing his first MLB bag. He went 2 for 5 with a double and is now 5 for 14 on the season. The power hasn’t come yet, but we know it’s in there.

Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung cracked his first homer of the year on a 1 for 3 with 0 K day. The 30.8% K% is still higher than you would like to see, but it’s only 3 games and he’s walking too with a 15.4% BB%.

Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 27.10 – Moncada has come back from the graveyard to get off to a screaming start. He went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and connected on his 2nd homer of the year going the opposite way. He now has a 1.418 OPS in 19 PA. The 36.8%/5.3% K%/BB% still scares me, and so does his very inconsistent track record. I’m going to need to see a lot more to really buy in.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.1 – 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 6/4 K/BB vs. ATL. The stuff was excellent as usual with his fastball sitting 94.8 MPH and putting up a 33% whiff% overall, but the control issues are still scary. He came away unscathed in this one, but he’ll get scathed in the future if he can’t meaningfully improve his control.

Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 24.8 – 4.2 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. WAS. This is why I really wasn’t buying in super hard on Shuster. Washington has a AAAA lineup, but the stuff just isn’t big enough to consistently dominate. The fastball only sat 90.1 MPH and it got destroyed with a 96.3 MPH EV against. He’ll be better than this, but I don’t see big upside here.

Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 21.4 – Soderstrom has been a power hitting beast the second he stepped into pro ball, and it’s scary that the power might actually be leveling up now. He decimated his first homer of the year at Triple-A with a 466 foot, 113.5 MPH bomb. He went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and the aforementioned homer and is now 5 for 9 on the season. Oakland’s lineup is a joke and they have been fast tracking Soderstrom since last year. He’s going to be the middle of the order bat that Oakland so desperately needs, and it might happen sooner rather than later.

Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.2 – I named O’Hoppe the most underrated prospect catcher in baseball before the 2022 season, and his stock has just continued to soar since then. He cracked his first MLB homer and is now 4 for 10 with 0 K’s and a 93.2 MPH EV in 11 batted balls. Power. Contact. I didn’t understand why he was so underrated in the first place. He won’t be underrated for much longer.

Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – It’s only a matter of time until Manzardo kicks the door down, and that door is starting to splinter after taking his first whack at it yesterday. He utterly unloaded for his first homer of the year with a 107.4 MPH bullet at Triple-A. He’s only 2 for 12 to start the year, but that isn’t going to last long.

Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1/Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – – Westburg and Norby are trying to kick the door down themselves, but Baltimore has built a wall of veterans to block their way. Westburg smoked a 106.7 MPH dinger off Luis Patino for his first of the year at Triple-A, and Norby hit his 2nd of the year at 100.2 MPH. Neither of them had any troubles in the upper minors in 2022, and I’m expecting smooth sailing in 2023 as well.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.6 – Pfaadt’s reward for clearly winning Arizona’s 5th starter job was to get sent down to the pitching hell hole that is Reno, and he got smacked up in his first start back, going 3.2 IP with 6 hits, 5 ER and 7/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 94.2 MPH, and the K/BB numbers were on point, so I wouldn’t be concerned at all, but he didn’t deserve this. With Mad Bum currently experiencing arm fatigue, hopefully he doesn’t have to stay there long.

Jhony Brito NYY, RHP, 25.2 – The unheralded Brito came out of nowhere to pitch a gem, going 5 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. SF. The fastball sat 95.6 MPH and the changeup was his most used pitch, putting up a 50% whiff%. He used a 5 pitch mix to utterly dominate in every facet. The K rate wasn’t high in the upper minors, but he kept the ball on the ground and had a 2.96 ERA in 112.2 IP. He’s certainly worthy of a pick up at the least, although the Yanks sent him back down because they don’t need a fifth starter for a little while.

Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B, 23.10 – Gonzales had a sneaky good spring training (.962 OPS), and now he’s carrying it over into Triple-A with his first homer at 105.9 MPH. Even in a “bad” year in 2022, the guy still had a 127 wRC+ at Double-A. Bae is getting his shot at 2B at the moment, but if he doesn’t produce, Gonzales won’t be far behind.

Bo Naylor CLE, C, 23.1 – Put one up on the big board for Naylor too as he went 2 for 5 with a double and a homer. It’s only a matter of time before he takes over the starting catcher job from Zunino, or at least a large share of it.

Nick Loftin KC, SS/2B/OF, 24.6/Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – It’s a fringe festival in Kansas City, and there is no reason Loftin and Taylor can’t join the parade soon. They each cracked their first homers of the year at Triple-A, and Taylor in particular is off to an exciting start with 2 steals and a 200 wRC+ in 3 games. Both have fantasy friendly upsides worthy of taking fliers on when they do get the call.

Nolan Jones COL, OF, 24.11/Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 24.7 – The Blocked Brothers both connected for dingers at Triple-A yesterday. It was Toglia’s first and Jones third of the year. I’m not even going to pretend to know when/if Colorado plans on giving these guys their shot.

Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.9 – Morel is about to bludgeon Triple-A pitching, and he’s already begun with his first dinger at 106.4 MPH. He now has a 212 wRC+ in the early going, but of course it still comes with a high 33.3% K%. He doesn’t have to be Wander Franco to breakout, he just needs to take one step forward with his hit tool to be a beast, and I think he will.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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