Monday Morning, er, Afternoon, Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (new update coming next week)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – And away we go. The 2024 MLB Draft pro debuts have officially kicked off. This is where excitement and hype can go to die with a rough go of it (Jacob Berry and Chase Davis say hi), or absolutely balloon to elite levels with utter dominance (Wyatt Langford). It’s exciting and scary all at the same time. Lots can change between now and the end of the season, and with how tight it is with the top talent of the draft, a shake up can definitely happen. Bazzana is up first, making his debut at High-A, and he’s already getting his first taste of reality with a 57.1%/0.0% K%/BB% in 2 games. He had two games all season in college where he struck out multiple times and didn’t walk once, and now he’s done that in his first two games of pro ball. It’s sooooooooo early, so obviously don’t even give it a second thought right now, but those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.

Jazz Chisholm NYY, OF, 26.6 – Hello short porch. You couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot for Jazz. His Statcast expected homer total for this year at Yankee Stadium is 19. He has 13 on the year and his expected total at Miami is 14. I know he isn’t a lift and pull maniac, but this move is a major upgrade for fantasy without even taking into account the much better lineup. He already stole a bag in his first game with the team, giving him 23 steals in 102 games. His plate approach is much improved this year with a career best 24.8%/9.0% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a 10.6% Barrel%. And now he enters the perfect ballpark to maximize his game power. Jazz owners have to be over the moon right now.

Isaac Paredes CHC, 1B/3B, 25.5 – … and Paredes owners have to be whatever the opposite of over the moon is. Under the sun? His weak EV, lift and pull profile was tailored made for Tampa, but now he’s headed to a below average ballpark for righty homers. He has a Statcast expected 11 homers this year with Chicago. It almost feels too easy to say that his numbers are going to drop off immediately. He’s 0 for 8 in his career at Wrigley (obviously silly small sample). He has a .752 OPS away from the Trop this year (.830 at the Trop). I’m not sure how this could be seen as anything but a major downgrade.

Christopher Morel TBR, OF/3B, 25.2 – Just watch Morel immediately start to play to his underlying numbers with Tampa. It’s not hard to see what Tampa saw with a .346 xwOBA vs. .298 wOBA. He hits the ball hard enough where he isn’t completely ballpark dependent, but this is still a ballpark upgrade for him, and I don’t think Tampa would have made this deal if they didn’t intend on playing him nearly everyday. I feel much more comfortable about Morel’s long term playing time in Tampa than I did with Chicago. This is an upgrade for Morel.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.9 The biggest loser of this trade seems to be Shaw. His path to playing time just got a whole lot murkier, and it seems to indicate Chicago is planning on taking it nice and slow with his development. He’ll have to settle for hitting lasers in the upper minors like he did last night for his 13th homer in 80 games at Double-A. I have no idea where he fits in now, or where their 2024 first rounder, 3B Cam Smith, fits in either. Depth is great for real life, but a pain in the ass for fantasy.

Dylan Lesko TBR, RHP, 20.11 – I can’t decide if Tampa fleeced San Diego in the Jason Adam for Dylan Lesko deal, or if everyone is still falling in love with the idea of Dylan Lesko rather than the reality of him. He has a 6.46 ERA with a 25%/16.5% K%/BB% in 69.2 IP at High-A. That is quite bad. But the stuff is still really good with three potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, nasty breaking ball, and his famously filthy changeup. This was still just his first full season coming off Tommy John, and also his first full healthy season in pro ball. It’s completely reasonable to expect growing pains, and if anyone can develop Lesko, it’s Tampa. This feels like breathing new life into Lesko’s dynasty value which was quickly evaporating.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – In last weeks’ Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.” … but after Saturday’s outing, that buy window is most likely slammed shut, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. The slider dominated as his most used pitch with a 33% usage and 67% whiff%. And again he used a legit 6 pitch mix. He deserves to be talked about with some of the best young breakouts in the game with a 3.26 xERA (4.06 ERA) and 25.5%/4.3% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.10 – I’ve been pounding the buy drum on Cruz for years now, through injuries, strikeout problems, the slow start to this year … all of it. And it’s starting to pay off now. He cracked a 109.2 MPH homer yesterday for his 17th of the season, and he’s now slashing .320/.381/.667 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 27/7 K/BB in his last 20 games. A 95.2 MPH EV is just absurd, and it’s the 3rd best mark in baseball behind only Judge and Ohtani. His 28.7 ft/sec sprint is in the top 13% of the league. And his 31.9% K% isn’t too horrible. We can work with that when you have this level of truly elite talent. He didn’t budge on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon) at #40 overall, and we might be looking at a Top 20 ish dynasty asset by the end of the season if he can keep up this hot streak.

Xavier Edwards MIA, 2B/OF, 25.0 – Edwards “jacked” his first homer of the year at a lowly 96.3 MPH, but it was enough to clear the fence, and it was also enough to hit for the cycle on a 4 for 4 day … plus a walk. I feel like there should be a name for hitting for the cycle and also getting a walk. Hitting for The Unicycle? Hitting for The Cycle with a Sidecar? Ha, I like Cycle with a Sidecar. That works. Either way, Edwards has been excellent this season, slashing .379/.462/.494 with 1 homer, 8 steals, and a 15.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 25 games. His 88.2 MPH EV is mighty impressive considering it sat at 82.2 MPH in 2023, although a 2.7% Barrel% is probably a better representation of how hard he can actually hit the ball. The plate approach is elite and he’s an excellent base stealer. It’s a Steven Kwan/Nico Hoerner-esque profile which we have obviously seen work in the majors. I wouldn’t buy in too hard, but he’s establishing himself as an interesting contact/speed player.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.8 – The Dodgers showed the patience of a saint with Lux, and it’s been paying off of late. He went 1 for 2 with 3 walks and a 98.1 MPH homer off Spencer Arrighetti. He’s now slashing .425/.500/.825 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 11/5 K/BB in his last 46 PA. The 88 MPH EV and 6.9% Barrel% over that time period still isn’t exactly knocking my socks off, so I’m still struggling to get too excited. I’m not seeing a monster explosion coming here. It seems like he’s rounding back into his really boring fantasy player form that he showed before going down with the knee injury.

Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B/OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 109.6 MPH homer off Kolby Allard. I remember when Kolby Allard was a hyped high school prospect, but now he is just bottom of the roster fodder for guys like Noel to juice up their stats on. He has a career 6.11 ERA in 249 IP to go along wi … oh wait, this blurb is about Noel. My prospect nostalgia/where are they now got the best of me for a second there. As for Noel, he is exactly as advertised with 6 homers, a 91.1 MPH EV, and 35.4%/4.6% K%/BB% in 65 MLB PA. The 31.2% whiff% is better than the K rate, which is encouraging, and so is the .363 xwOBA. He’s also sneaky athletic with an above average 27.8 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not going to steal bases, it’s still nice to see. Noel’s value continues to rise, and I would value him as a Top 300-ish dynasty asset right now.

Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 25.11 – It’s hard to call the Toglia breakout anything but legit at this point (and it looks mighty similar to what Noel is doing) with him launching a 105.2 MPH homer for his 18th in 61 games. The 92.5 MPH EV and 17.5% Barrel% very clearly backs up the explosion, and a 32.3% K% is workable when you are hitting the ball that hard (and when you play at Coors). He’s a good athlete too with an above average 27.6 ft/sec sprint. The BA is obviously still a major risk, and it sits at .215 right now, so I’m certainly not going too crazy, but this does look like a legit leveling up for Toglia.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. COL. Well, at least we can be certain that Birdsong can beat the Rockies, throwing back to back dominant outings vs them. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while all three secondaries (slider, change, curve) racked up whiffs for a 39% whiff% overall. His 4 starts vs non Rockies teams were not as smooth, so it would be nice to see him do this against a better lineup before crowning him, but it’s still an exciting start to Birdsong’s career. He now has a 2.97 ERA with a 30.2%/11.9% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. His 34.8% whiff% is elite.

River Ryan LAD, RHP, 26.0 – 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. HOU. The fastball sat 96.1 MPH with a respectable 22% whiff%. The breaking balls missed a ton of bats, leading to a 33% whiff% overall, and the sinker dominated with a 78.8 MPH EV against and 29% whiff%. He’s looked electric since returning from missing most of the season with shoulder fatigue, and while he was solid in his first MLB outing, he took it to another level in this one, showing off the bat missing ability. He already rose to #356 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon) before he had even made his MLB debut, and now I think he’s easily within the Top 300.

DJ Herz WAS, LHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hit, 2 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. STL. The 93.8 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% and it’s been a great pitch all season with a 35.1% whiff% and .251 xwOBA. His 6.6% BB% in 41.1 IP is extremely impressive considering how badly he struggled with his control in the minors. The 4.79 ERA doesn’t look great, but the 3.31 xERA looks much better. Herz was a former favorite of mine, and while I hesitate to think he can truly keep up this level of control, we know that pitcher development isn’t linear. He’s still just 23 year old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was taking a real step forward. While I wouldn’t give up very much for him right now, he’s definitely worth a shot in all league sizes, and if you can get him on the cheap or as a throw in as part of a bigger deadline deal, that would be perfect. There is definitely something here.

Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.4 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at rookie ball in the ACL championship series. It’s been an up and down first year of pro ball for Jang, but this is the type of dominance he is capable of when his control is on. He’s an absolute strikeout machine with 57 K’s in just 27.1 IP on the season, and the stuff is no joke with him getting up to 99 MPH. He is obviously still a bit of a project with a 8.14 ERA and 16.1% BB% in 24.1 IP during the regular season, but I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his talent. The breakout didn’t come this year, but I still like him a ton, and I think it’s coming down the line.

Connor Norby BAL, 2B/OF, 24.2 – 0 for 3 with 3 K’s and is now 0 for his last 10 … this is not how you entice Detroit or Chicago to want you in a trade for Skubal or Crochet.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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