New York Mets 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Mets 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 59 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 29.0 – Diaz ascended to best closer in baseball status with an unbelievable 50.2% K% in 62 IP. His career 40.3% K% is the 2nd best mark in the history of baseball, behind the man who he just unseated as the top closer, Josh Hader (43.2%). The highest ranked starter on that list is Spencer Strider at 9th overall. Diaz is not just a one trick pony though, he also induces with contact with a 85.5 MPH EV against which was in the top 4% of the league, and he doesn’t have any control problems with an above average 7.7% BB%. He should be the top closer off the board. 2023 Projection: 4/2.68/0.98/108 in 64 IP

Starting Pitchers

Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 34.10 – deGrom is 34 years old, but he is in that tier of elite athlete that could continue to play at a high level into their 40’s. Just look at Tom Brady. He’s 45 and he has 300 pound, sub 5.0 forty guys trying to take his head off. deGrom is in that super elite class, and he doesn’t have to deal with standing strong in the pocket with an unprotected blitz descending upon him. He just put up an absolutely silly 42.7%/3.3% K%/BB% with a 0.75 WHIP in 64.1 IP. Both his 2021 and 2022 have been injury shortened seasons with a UCL and shoulder injury, but I think those numbers speak to themselves as to how the arm was feeling. He could easily have another 5 elite years in the tank, and why not 10. It’s not like young pitching is really any safer, as young pitchers are arguably more risky than older guys. Use deGrom’s advanced age and injury shortened seasons to your advantage. 2023 Projection: 14/2.51/0.95/220 in 170 IP

Tylor Megill NYM, RHP, 27.8 – Megill was one of my top cheap pitcher targets in 2022, and I’m going back to the well in 2023. He has plus stuff (95.7 MPH), plus swing and miss ability (27.6% whiff%), and plus control (6.5% BB%). He was in the midst of not only backing up his strong 2021, but taking the breakout to another level before a biceps and shoulder injury put a halt to it. He returned in September in a bullpen role and the fastball was still up over 95 MPH. The Mets 2023 rotation is unsettled, so there is no guarantee he wins a rotation spot out of camp, but he’ll inevitably get another shot at some point. 2023 Projection: 8/3.78/1.21/153 in 140 IP

David Peterson NYM, LHP, 27.7 – Peterson’s velocity was up on all of his pitches (93.7 MPH fastball) and it led to his whiff% exploding to near elite levels at 30.2%. His slider in particular popped, putting up the 4th highest whiff% amongst starters at 47.9%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and keeps the ball on the ground with a 49.4% GB%. It led to a 3.83 ERA and 126/48 K/BB in 105.2 IP. Like Megill, there is no guarantee he wins a rotation spot, but he’s a no brainer target. I’ll be going after him regardless of league size. 2023 Projection: 8/3.67/1.28/156 in 140 IP

Hitters

Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.5 – Lindor was one of my top buys in 2022, ranking him 23rd overall in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and closing his blurb by writing, “Lindor is an easy buy this off-season.” As expected, that is exactly how it played out with Lindor bouncing back to finish as the 10th best fantasy player in baseball (Razzball Player Rater). He simply did what he’s done his entire career, which is more or less be an above average player in every facet of the game. He should have a few more years of prime production left before his stolen bases dry up the deeper he gets into his 30’s as he is slowing down a little bit. 2023 Projection: 94/25/89/.263/.330/.453/17

Top 10 New York Mets Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future, and the Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment. 2023 Projection: 67/26/80/.240/.331/.457/3 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

2) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore his the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023. 2023 Projection: 73/22/79/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

3) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 20.6 – The super projectable Ramirez remains super projectable at a skinny 6’3”, so even though he hit only 11 homers in 121 games, there is much more coming down the road. The more encouraging thing is that he started to refine his game in 2022 with a very good 22.9%/9.2% K%/BB% in 67 games at Single-A and a 22%/6.5% K%/BB% in 54 games at High-A. It led to a 129 wRC+ at the age appropriate Single-A and a 109 wRC+ at High-A. He’s a poor base stealer, going 21 for 37 on the bases (4 for 11 at High-A), so he’ll probably only contribute a handful at peak especially as he slows down, but Ramirez has the type of skillset that could explode into elite prospect territory in short order. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.268/.333/.458/11

4) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 21.8 – If you liked Henry Davis, you are going to love Keven Parada. Selected 11th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Parada looks the part of a catcher with two tree trunks for legs. He used that power base to have an insane power explosion this season, going from 9 homers in 2021, to 26 homers in 2022 over 60 ACC games. He also has a strong hit tool with a .361 BA and 32/30 K/BB. His value held serve in his pro debut, hitting the ball hard and putting up a .880 OPS in 13 games at mostly Single-A. I wouldn’t be too worried about New York already having Francisco Alvarez as they can both catch a ton of games and then DH on the other days. It will also preserve their careers in the long run. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.268/.339/.475/3

5) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 22.0 – The good news is that Mauricio is fully realizing his power potential, crushing 26 homers in 123 games at Double-A, but the bad news is that he just can’t seem to refine his plate approach with a 23.1%/4.4% K%/BB%. It makes it tough to buy into him in OBP leagues, but I wouldn’t be too scared off in 5×5 BA leagues because his defense should be able to keep him on the field. He’s been young for every level he’s played at, and he’s currently lighting up the Dominican Winter League with 2 homers, a 1.223 OPS and a 5/3 K/BB in 8 games, so he’s far from a finished product. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/82/.264/.317/.455/9

6) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.5 – Selected 14th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Williams is a small but explosive player with strong EV numbers and plus speed. The hit tool is his calling card, which makes him relatively safe, and it’s possible his upside isn’t being respected enough because the discrimination against small guys (5’8”, 175 pounds). He’s definitely not a slap hitter. He displayed all of those skills in his pro debut, slashing .250/.366/.437 with 1 homer, 6 steals, and a 14.6%/9.8% K%/BB% in 10 games. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/17/71/.278/.343/.438/24

7) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 23.4 – Vientos is 6’4”, 185 pounds with a big righty hack that is made to hit dingers. He jacked 24 homers in 101 games games at Triple-A and then hit the majors and put up a 93.3 MPH EV in 41 PA. On the flip side, he has major hit tool concerns which could tank him with a 28.6% K% at Triple-A and a 29.3% K% (.167 BA) in the majors. He also isn’t a great defensive player and he had pretty major splits this year (.734 vs righties/1.094 vs lefties). The risk is that he becomes a short side of a platoon DH/bench bat, but the upside is a 30+ homer bat. 2023 Projection: 29/10/38/.228/.297/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.248/.327/.488/1

8) Matt Allan NYM, RHP, 21.11 – Allan underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2021 and was out for all of 2022. When healthy, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus, high spin rate curveball and a changeup that was showing improvement before going down. He’s only pitched 10.1 professional innings in his career, and he hasn’t pitched in a game since 2019, so while the upside is high, the risk is too. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/175 in 165 IP

9) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Tidwell throws gas with a fastball that can consistently reach the upper 90’s. He combines that with a potentially plus slider and developing changeup. He was limited to only 39 IP in the SEC due to shoulder soreness, but he pitched well in those innings with a 3.00 ERA and 51/11 K/BB. He then stepped into pro ball and proved the shoulder is just fine by dominating in the Single-A playoffs, going 9.2 IP with 5 hits, 0 ER and a 13/2 K/BB over 2 outings. He makes for a great later round FYPD target if you stack up on hitters early. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.28/165 in 160 IP

10) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 24.1 – Hamel is a spin monster with basically his entire arsenal putting up high spin rates (fastball, curve, slider). It led to a 3.25 ERA and 145/54 K/BB in 119 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The fastball only sits in the low 90’s, his control isn’t great, and he’s old for the lower minors, so it’s probably more of a back end profile with mid-rotation upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.32/171 in 165 IP

Just Missed

11) Calvin Ziegler NYM, RHP, 20.6

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

I already alluded to it in the Jacob deGrom blurb, but there is great value to be had in Dynasty leagues by going after older pitching. Old guys can get downgraded too much in general, but it’s especially unwarranted with pitchers. Having a track record of being able to throw a full starter’s workload is really more important than having youth. Young pitchers have often never thrown, and sometimes haven’t even come close to throwing a full workload, making it a major question mark if they can even do it. You also almost have to expect and plan for a flame throwing youngster to miss 1-2 years with Tommy John surgery. The older guys might have gotten that Tommy John out of the way already. Plus, pitching is so risky in general that I wouldn’t count on any pitcher, regardless of age, to be a long term core of my dynasty team. I’ll build a core of young hitters, and then go after established pitching when I think I have that 3-5 year contention window to make my mark.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Share this:

Related