Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on January 3, 2020 by Michael Halpern

Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings Discussion: Top 20

Halp discusses the top 20 dynasty baseball players for 2020:

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 16, 2019January 14, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 100 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 100:

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 22.3 – Combination of age and stolen base upside is what separates Acuna from the pack, but a 26.3% K% presents a risk that other candidates for the top spot don’t have. In anything other than a 5×5 league (points, OBP), I would look elsewhere with the top pick. 2020 Projection: 111/37/98/.285/.367/.524/31

2) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 28.8 – Turning 29 during the 2020 season, career low 13 steal attempts, and a much younger crop of generational talent establishing themselves in 2019 are why Trout is no longer the obvious #1 pick in dynasty. I still have him #1 in redrafts. 2020 Projection: 113/46/107/.299/.442/.631/15

3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 21.5 – Flipped hitting profile from rookie season, upping FB% to 37.2% (from 28.8%) and lowering GB% to 41.6% (from 53.7%). 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is 2.1 MPH higher than Trout and 1.4 MPH higher than Acuna. Soto is my #1 pick in non 5×5 dynasty leagues. 2020 Projection: 108/36/105/.296/.404/.553/10

4) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF, 24.9 – Career bests in BB% (14.4%), K% (16.4%), average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), and launch angle (17.6 degree launch). On the flip side, OPS declined every month of the season (1.397, .998, .967, .952, .918, .891, playoffs-.549). 2020 Projection: 110/43/110/.288/.383/.598/14

5) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 28.4 – Here is what I wrote about Yelich in my 2019 Top 1,000: “… posted the lowest GB% of his career by a good margin in August and September (46% and 44%, respectively). If he can carry those gains over a full season, the power breakout may not be a complete outlier.” That is exactly what happened, with Yelich posting a 43.2% GB% and hitting a career high 44 homers. The fractured knee cap that ended his season supposedly won’t have any long term effects. 2020 Projection: 111/37/104/.309/.410/.605/20

6) Mookie Betts BOS, OF, 27.6 – As a Yankees fan, I pray to the baseball gods every night that Boston trades Mookie Betts for “can’t miss” pitching prospects. 2020 Projection: 119/33/86/.310/.402/.552/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 26.9 – Power took a big step forward, raising average exit velocity 2.5 MPH to 90.3 MPH. Remains a speedster with the 2nd fastest sprint speed in baseball, behind only Tim Locastro (Buxton is a close 3rd). 2020 Projection: 104/24/77/.293/.350/.488/41

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 21.3 – With a 29.6% K% and a 6.9 degree launch angle, you can look at Tatis’ 2019 in one of two ways. Either you think he got lucky and there is serious regression coming, or you are scared at the thought of what his stats might look like when he inevitably improves on those underlying numbers. I’m in camp #2. 2020 Projection: 101/35/99/.274/.348/.531/26

9) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 26.4 – Small step back in K%, BB%, GB% and sprint speed, but I’m willing to write that off to his early season calf injury considering overall production remained strong. 2020 Projection: 104/32/87/.285/.349/.520/20

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 27.4 – Carried over the major improvements he made in K% and stolen bases in 2018 into 2019. One of the premier power/speed combos in the game. 2020 Projection: 100/36/100/.283/.354/.546/22

11) Wander Franco TB, SS, 19.1 – Acuna and Soto might be old news in 2 years if Franco reaches his upside of plus to double plus all category production. He very well may be the true heir to Trout’s throne. 2020 Projection: September-13/4/9/.277/.341/.445/4 Prime Projection: 114/32/113/.316/.405/.595/19

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

14) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 26.0 – Gets dinged in the rankings because of the possibility of a suspension and the unknown of how much cheating improved his stats. Relatively low 92.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is another red flag. 2020 Projection: 103/30/101/.291/.403/.538/9

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 27.6 – Armageddon 1st half (.218/.308/.344) followed by a beastly 2nd half (.327/.365/.739) that was interrupted and ultimately cut short by a fractured hamate bone. Like Bregman, low FB/LD exit velocity (91.8 MPH) indicates some power downside. 2020 Projection: 98/30/93/.279/.358/.518/25

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

17) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 24.11 – When I ranked Meadows 54th overall in last year’s ranking, someone asked me what I was smoking. Apparently I was toking on salvia divinorum, aka, sage of the diviners, aka it’s a plant you smoke and then you hallucinate, because Meadows broke out with a .291 BA, 33 homers, and 12 steals. He hits it very hard, hits it in the air, has speed, and has a strong plate approach. 2020 Projection: 93/32/96/.282/.351/.531/15

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

20) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 27.11 – Led the league in average exit velocity every year since getting called up in 2016. Smashed 15 homers in final 33 games to salvage what was shaping up to be a mediocre season. 2020 Projection: 107/42/101/.263/.370/.545/7

21) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 22.1 – Like Tatis, the impressive triple slash (.311/..358/.571) is considerably better than the underlying numbers, but I’m betting on the underlying numbers mostly catching up to the slash line, rather than the other way around. 2020 Projection: 93/24/79/.282/.340/.481/18 Prime Projection: 118/34/95/.296/.373/.542/15

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 23.3 – Average exit velocity jumped 2.5 MPH to 88.8 MPH, although exit velocity on fly balls actually decreased by 0.3 MPH. It’s still a good sign that there is another level of power in here as he matures. 2020 Projection: 107/26/84/.288/.356/.490/17

23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 29.7 – I don’t factor in age with pitchers quite as much as with hitters because every pitcher is one injury away from a career altering injury. Young pitchers also haven’t proven their arm can withstand season after season of 200+ innings which makes them more risky than an older pitcher with more miles on their arm. 2020 Projection: 18/2.92/0.98/295 in 205 IP

24) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Throws the fastest cutter by a starter at 92.8 MPH (1.8 MPH ahead of 2nd, Marcus Stroman). Final hurdle to cross is how his arm responds after a career high 195 IP (including the postseason), which is a 34 IP increase from 2018. 2020 Projection: 17/3.23/1.01/230 in 191 IP

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 31.9 – Career high velocity on all of his pitches. Upped slider and fastball usage while ditching his sinker and minimizing the curve. 2020 Projection: 14/2.86/0.99/260 in 208 IP

26) Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B, 23.4 – Exit velocities and K/BB are solid but don’t jump out at you. 17.4 degree launch angle ensures healthy power production, and I’m expecting continued improvement in all aspects of his game. 2020 Projection: 97/32/106/.283/.352/.521/4

27) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 27.6 – Maintained exit velocity gains from 2018 and notched a career high 10.9% BB%. With only 6 steal attempts in 155 games, you can no longer count on him in the speed department as you build your roster. 2020 Projection: 99/28/108/.296/.369/.529/7

28) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 27.4 – Getting by with pure exit velocity and speed. 2020 Projection: 98/33/103/.278/.319/.520/13

29) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 29.10 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “With a 13.7% K% and 17.7 degree launch angle, there is potential for a monster career season lurking in here.” … The monster was unleashed and it landed him a $245 million contract. 2020 Projection: 104/32/108/.306/.382/.560/4

30) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 23.8 – Underlying stats profile as a low average, power hitting beast with a handful of steals. Ultimately should develop into more of a 20% strikeout hitter than the 30% he put up in 2019. 2020 Projection: 88/34/96/.268/.333/.507/11

31) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 24.6 – Velocity up about 1 MPH on every pitch and BB% was down 2.5%. Third year in a row posting well below average exit velocities against (86.1 MPH) gives hope the low BABIP’s (.242) is a skill. 2020 Projection: 16/3.38/1.11/229 in 194 IP

32) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 24.10 – Not a flamethrower but has advanced command over a 4 pitch mix. Batters were able to make some good contact against him with a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity against. Cole and Verlander both sat at 87.3 MPH for comparison. 2020 Projection: 15/3.41/1.09/220 in 195 IP

33) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 24.10 – Not quite the speedster we all thought he was, but power showed up in a big way, upping exit velocity 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH. .315 batting average (.406 BABIP) is coming down. 2020 Projection: 96/30/89/.273/.360/.513/13

34) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 25.4 – Alonso is going to mash no matter how much Manfred loosens up those seams. 2020 Projection: 91/43/109/.263/.360/.557/1

35) Manny Machado SD, 3B/SS, 27.9 – Career worst 19.4% K% and low BABIP led to a career low .254 BA. The lack of steals was easy to predict, but now you have to worry about a mediocre average too. 2020 Projection: 92/34/102/.278/.351/.515/8

36) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 23.4 – Elite exit velocity and 31 homers in 122 games proves the power wasn’t over-hyped. Has the ability to hit for both power and average when his K% comes down, and his minor league numbers suggest it will. 2020 Projection: 88/33/99/.283/.335/.530/1

37) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 22.8 – Sox have mentioned they view Robert like Eloy and we should expect an early season call up. He’s still raw at the plate, but has a power/speed combo that rivals Acuna. 2020 Projection: 63/26/68/.259/.308/.471/18 Prime Projection: 94/34/101/.277/.339/.521/25

38) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 30.7 – Underlying numbers are very similar to his past two seasons when he put up 28 and 23 homers, respectively, but this season he managed to knock 38 homers. For reference, he hit 34 homers in 2016, but his exit velocity was about 2 MPH higher than 2017-2019. Freeman might be the clearest example of the impact of the juiced ball. 2020 Projection: 95/31/105/.298/.391/.543/5

39) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 27.4 – Missed two months after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery in July to remove loose bodies. Velocity was down on all of his pitches, but still among the hardest throwers in baseball. Bloated 4.29 ERA was at least partly due to a .343 BABIP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.37/1.18/223 in 178 IP

40) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 26.6 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “13.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 88.6 MPH average exit velocity, 92 MPH on FB/LD, and 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. If he can start lifting the ball more and add some strength as he enters his mid to late 20’s, there is a 5-category stud lurking in here.” … Marte added 1.3 MPH to his exit velocity and 5.8 degrees to his launch angle en route to a beastly 5-category season. 2020 Projection: 93/26/88/.293/.352/.512/9

41) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 25.6 – In the midst of a power breakout but rib and back injuries limited him to only 25 games after May. A back injury tanked his 2018 season as well, so it’s a legitimate concern. 2020 Projection: 90/32/105/.283/.362/.527/3

42) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 24.8 – Underwent labrum surgery on October 3rd, with a 5-6 month recovery. Major surgeries that ruin your normal off-season routine is not a recipe for a breakout season. 2020 Projection: 78/16/74/.255/.299/.422/41 Prime Projection: 93/23/86/.274/.329/.446/49

43) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/OF, 25.9 – Power and strikeouts … and strikeouts. The plan is for 1 start and 3-4 DH days per week. In weekly lineup leagues drop him down 100 spots because he can likely be viewed only as a 130 IP starter at peak. 2020 Projection: Hitting-46/17/52/.277/.349/.511/9 — Pitching-7/3.55/1.20/123 in 100 IP

44) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B/OF, 28.3 – Exit velocity is just not what it was in 2015 and 2016 when Bryant looked to be on the verge of becoming a perennial top 5 pick. I guess we’ll have to settle for merely very, very good. 2020 Projection: 110/32/80/.283/.381/.509/5

45) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 26.11 – Career low 21.9% K%, but a 3.6% jump in infield fly ball rate negated any possible batting average gains (.249 BA with a .270 BABIP). 2020 Projection: 105/38/96/.268/.355/.529/2

46) Mike Clevinger CLE, RHP, 29.3 – Upper back strain and sprained ankle caused Clevinger to miss almost the entire first half. Notched a career high 95.6 MPH fastball velocity, but that was on a steady decline as the season wore on. 2020 Projection: 15/3.31/1.14/222 in 190 IP

47) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 31.8 – Dominant, as usual, but he did it in a different way by upping his groundball percentage with increased sinker and curveball usage. Staying healthy all season is probably the most notable thing of all. 2020 Projection: 15/3.43/1.10/220 in 185 IP

48) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 21.0 – Elite athlete with double plus power. 32.6% K% and 0 homers in 27 games at Triple-A likely ensures at least a couple months of development time there in 2020. 2020 Projection: July-39/13/45/.250/.301/.459/6 Prime Projection: 101/37/108/.271/.353/.538/13

49) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 37.1 – Even at 37 years old Verlander is such a difference maker that he is worth a true elite prospect back in a trade. The cliff often doesn’t come with advanced warning, though, that is why they call it the cliff, and not the ramp. 2020 Projection: 17/3.08/1.01/270 in 208 IP

50) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 35.8 – Back issues held Scherzer to his lowest innings pitched total since his rookie year in 2009. He also didn’t pitch as well when he returned from the injury (4.81 ERA in 43 IP). 2020 Projection: 16/3.09/1.04/261 in 203 IP

51) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 29.11 – Career high K% (15%), career low stolen base total (6), and while Altuve hit a career high 31 homers, there wasn’t any significant improvements in exit velocity or flyball percentage to truly back up the power surge. 2020 Projection: 99/26/82/.292/.351/.490/13

52) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 32.7 – Best case scenario he’s Nelson Cruz and there is 7+ years of production left. Worst case scenario he’s Albert Pujols and this 32 year old season is the beginning of the end. 2020 Projection: 101/38/112/.308/.380/.570/3

53) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 24.3 – Plus fastball/changeup combo is good enough, but continued development of the curveball can take him to the next level. 2020 Projection: 13/3.58/1.09/190 in 170 IP

54) Starling Marte PIT, OF, 31.6 – Career low 16% K%. Sprint speed is as good as ever but relying on speed as players get deeper into their 30’s is risky. 2020 Projection: 94/20/77/.289/.339/.462/28

55) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 22.4 – Sprint speed improved from below average in 2018 to above average in 2019. The power was never in question, but now there is hope the steals might transfer too. 2020 Projection: 71/24/77/.251/.325/.476/11 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.265/.348/.513/15

56) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 22.10 – 81 MPH average exit velocity is cover your eyes bad. Even Stephen Strasburg managed to put up a 82.5. Jose Altuve has proven there is a path to strong power numbers with below average exit velocity (86.1 MPH), but Robles has to improve to reach even that level. 2020 Projection: 91/20/73/.272/.334/.439/27

57) George Springer HOU, OF, 30.6 – While his 2019 is likely a juiced ball aided career year, the strong underlying numbers don’t rule out the possibility of a repeat. 2020 Projection: 104/33/95/.280/.369/.525/7

58) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 26.0 – Elite exit velocity power hitting beast. 2020 Projection: 93/38/105/.256/.345/.537/1

59) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 30.5 – Limited to 18 games due to a variety of injuries, but performed like himself in those games with a 100.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 95/43/109/.261/.352/.546/3

60) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 27.8 – Career high 37.3% FB% and 92.3 MPH exit velocity is evidence the power breakout is for real. 2020 Projection: 90/32/106/.273/.361/.528/1

61) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 25.9 – Plus power/speed combo but a 25.6% K% and 5.6% BB% shows he is not without risk. 2020 Projection: 89/27/84/.265/.334/.486/16

62) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 26.9 – Career low 21% K% and career high 88.3 MPH exit velocity, along with a little BABIP luck, led to a breakout season, slashing .335/.357/.508 with 18 homers and 17 steals in 123 games. 2020 Projection: 90/23/72/.282/.321/.468/21

63) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 30.8 – Backed up 2018’s breakout with another strong year on the back of his elite slider. Velocity up about 1 MPH on each pitch. 2020 Projection: 14/3.50/1.19/231 in 197 IP

64) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 26.1 – Missed almost entire season with an inflamed rotator cuff and lat strain. Velocity wasn’t quite what it was in 2018, but at 96.1 MPH, that is more than enough. 2020 Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/200 in 175 IP

65) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/SS, 22.4 – Another guy I was high on last year, ranking him 181st overall and writing, “Me thinks Lux is still being a bit underrated right now.” He isn’t underrated anymore. 2020 Projection: July-42/11/39/.272/.334/.451/7 Prime Projection: 98/28/93/.283/.356/.495/14

66) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 31.0 – Inflammation in pitching elbow ended Sale’s season in August. Fastball was down 2 MPH and put up a career worst 4.40 ERA, but he still managed to strikeout 218 batters in 147.1 IP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.29/1.02/234 in 165 IP

67) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Advanced beyond his years feel to hit which he displayed at Full-A (.293 BA), High-A (.462 BA), and the Fall League (.288 BA). Add to that at least plus raw power and you have one of the most coveted prospects in baseball. ETA: Late 2021 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.290/.368/.550/8

68) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 33.9 – Career low 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed doesn’t leave much hope for a stolen base bounce back (2 steals in 2019), but he has never hit the ball harder with a career high 88.5 MPH exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 106/33/84/.307/.362/.539/6

69) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 27.4 – Fireballing groundball pitcher with the most valuable changeup in baseball. 2020 Projection: 13/3.63/1.19/214 in 188 IP

70) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 25.9 – Fastball velocity jumped 1.8 MPH to 94.6 MPH and changeup became an elite pitch. Grandal and his plus pitch framing should counteract any regression concerns. 2020 Projection: 13/3.69/1.17/226 in 185 IP

71) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 21.1 – Potential for 4 plus pitches with plus control. Destroyed Hi-A with a silly pitching line of 1.02/0.71/110/20/ in 79.1 IP. 2020 Projection: July-6/3.82/1.26/83 in 78 IP Prime Projection: 17/3.22/1.03/240 in 200 IP

72) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 30.8 – As consistent as they come. 2020 Projection: 91/30/97/.288/.381/.513/5

73) Marcus Semien OAK, SS, 29.6 – Major breakout in basically every underlying stat and surface stat you look at. Some regression is likely, but the breakout was real. 2020 Projection: 107/29/76/.279/.360/.499/11

74) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 27.7 – Online IQ test question: What is the next number in this sequence – 4, 13, 21, 26, 34, 49, _? That is Suarez’ season home run totals since entering the league. My fake online IQ of 144 tells me Barry Bonds home run record might be in jeopardy next season. 2020 Projection: 84/32/98/.266/.352/.523/3

75) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 26.4 – Has 281 hits in his career and 110 of them are homers. 38.4% K% still makes Gallo a huge average risk, but he also led the league in exit velocity on FB/LD at 101.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 94/45/96/.234/.356/.549/4

76) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 27.1 – Struggles vs. lefties is only true blemish (.701 OPS). 2020 Projection: 93/30/92/.263/.370/.502/5

77) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 27.2 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “Posted career bests in K% (15.7%), BB% (11.6%), FB% (46.2%), and exit velo (89.5 MPH/93.9 MPH FB/LD). Kepler already broke out but it didn’t show up in his surface stats last year.” … It showed up this year, cranking 36 homers in 134 games while maintaining most of the underlying gains he made in 2018. 2020 Projection: 93/31/89/.266/.349/.502/3

78) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B/3B, 29.7 – Put any playing time concerns to rest with 589 PA, although the logjam isn’t breaking up anytime soon with Gavin Lux now trying to force his way into the lineup. 2020 Projection: 97/34/96/.254/.370/.513/3

79) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 28.1 – Huge power breakout, upping exit velocity 3.1 MPH and ripping 48 homers in 162 games. 2020 Projection: 85/33/98/.261/.350/.520/2

80) Eddie Rosario MIN, OF, 28.6 – Continued his free swinging ways (3.7% BB%) with power (32 homers) and a good feel to hit (14.6% K%). 2020 Projection: 84/28/92/.283/.316/.489/6

81) Jonathan Villar MIA, 2B/SS, 28.11 – Played in all 162 games, compiling 24 homers, 111 runs and 40 steals. Miami moving their fences in will cushion the blow a little bit from leaving Camden. 2020 Projection: 85/16/61/.263/.331/.430/34

82) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 26.7 – Forearm strain knocked out most of Glasnow’s breakout season, but his velocity was fully back when he returned in September. His newfound control did not return, with 8 walks in 19.1 IP (including postseason). 2020 Projection: 10/3.58/1.19/185 in 150 IP

83) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 26.10 – Career best K/9 (10.19) and career worst BB/9 (3.56). Exit velocity against jumped to 88.5 MPH after being in the 85’s from 2016-2018. 2020 Projection: 14/3.66/1.21/221 in 205 IP

84) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 27.0 – Down-ish year when everyone else was experiencing a career year, but the homer/walk profile remains the same. 2020 Projection: 96/35/92/.250/.371/.512/3

85) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 26.6 – Took power to another level with 20 homers in 84 games by raising launch angle 3.7 degrees and increasing FB/LD exit velocity 3.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 86/30/94/.270/.323/.492/8

86) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 25.11 – Career high 39.2% FB% didn’t result in a power breakout this season, but it portends good things for the future considering he was able to maintain strong exit velocity and plate approach numbers. 2020 Projection: 94/27/92/.281/.343/.496/1

87) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF, 25.9 – 6.8% K% increase led to a down year across the board. Also has been getting slower every year. I feel more comfortable about a power rebound than I do a stolen base rebound. 2020 Projection: 93/21/86/.279/.357/.446/11

88) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 24.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in late September which puts his availability for opening day in question. Speed is his best asset right now, but still profiles as an above average all category contributor at peak. 2020 Projection: 74/16/66/.268/.333/.440/19 Prime Projection: 94/24/83/.278/.346/.462/23

89) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 20.8 – Performed well across 3 levels of the minors in his first full season of pro ball, culminating with a 133 wRC+ at Double-A. Above average to plus potential in every category. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 96/25/87/.283/.351/.485/16

90) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 32.0 – Fastball velocity did not rebound to pre-2018 levels and actually lost another 0.9 MPH, but the slider is as good as ever. 2020 Projection: 14/3.38/1.09/188 in 180 IP

91) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 27.7 – Much improved changeup became his best secondary pitch but his slider took a step back, losing 2.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 3.73/1.22/196 in 190 IP

92) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 27.2 – Third most valuable fastball in baseball behind only Cole and Flaherty. 2020 Projection: 11/3.74/1.20/190 in 165 IP

93) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 22.6 – Shoulder injury limited Luzardo to just 58 IP at a variety of levels (Rk, Hi-A, Triple-A, MLB playoffs), but he dominated at each stop with 3 plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, and change). He has a chance to be special, but with a career high of 109 IP, it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy and produce for 180+ IP. 2020 Projection: 10/3.68/1.19/160 in 142 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/213 in 183 IP

94) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Announced that he will likely join the rotation in 2020. Ranked first overall in average exit velocity against at 83.2 MPH and fastball jumped 2.1 MPH to 95.2 MPH, including during the starts he made early in the season. 2020 Projection: 11/3.68/1.21/139 in 135 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/198 in 182 IP

95) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 27.0 – Found that legitimate third pitch by adding a splitter that he threw 18.2% of the time. With a plus fastball/slider combo already in tow, Montas broke out with a pitching line of 2.63/1.12/103/23 in 96 IP. 80-game PED suspension cut his season short, but he did return for 1 start in September with no noticeable performance decline. 2020 Projection: 13/3.64/1.21/185 in 170 IP

96) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 27.4 – Elite power hitter and does it from the scarce catcher position. On the downside, catchers are always more banged up and at risk of shortened careers. It’s a give and take. 2020 Projection: 69/32/83/.252/.333/.520/0

97) Marcell Ozuna FA, OF, 29.5 – Low BABIP (.259) spoiled what could have been a huge season as Ozuna reached a career high 12 steals and 11.3% BB%. If he can repeat those gains in 2020, the upside is there for him to blow up. 2020 Projection: 82/31/93/.268/.332/.500/6

98) David Dahl COL, OF, 26.0 – Another season shortened by injury, this time by a high ankle sprain that ended his year in early August. .386 BABIP covered up a weak 110/28 K/BB in 100 games, but he displayed an above average power/speed combo and has the raw tools to take his game to the next level. 2020 Projection: 86/23/83/.271/.329/.480/9

99) Amed Rosario NYM, SS, 24.4 – Continues to get stronger, raising his exit velocity 1.9 MPH to a well above average 89.2 MPH, while maintaining his plus speed and good feel to hit. 91.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity will have to improve in order to take the next step. 2020 Projection: 87/18/79/.283/.322/.446/22

100) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 26.3 – In the midst of a mini breakout before a shoulder injury ended his season, which required labrum surgery in September with a 5-6 month timetable. The underlying skills (95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, 19.5 degree launch angle, and 30.3 foot per second sprint speed) are there to become a power/speed beast, even if it takes him into his late 20’s to truly put it all together. 2020 Projection: 83/23/76/.267/.321/.475/26

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 21, 2019January 6, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 20 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings will be finished in late January/early February. I’m going to drop some sneak peeks leading up to that, starting with the top 20:

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 4, 2019April 4, 2019 by Michael Halpern

Predicting the 2019 Mid-Season Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

With the MiLB season starting later today, I thought I would kick off the opening day festivities by predicting what the 2019 Top 50 mid-season prospect list will look like. Once the games start, I will stop predicting, and will start analyzing, which now that I think about it, will probably lead to more predictions. Are prospect lists and fantasy advice anything other than predictions anyway?

1) Wander Franco TB, SS, 18.1 – Assigned to Full-A. If Franco performs even half as well at Full-A as he did in the Appy League, he will be the undisputed top prospect in baseball.

2) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 21.1 – Bichette will be 25 at-bats into his MLB career by list season and will hit the ground running with 2 homers, 2 steals and a .285 average. The hype will be real.

3) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 21.6 – Pushing, shoving, carving, “Fucking and Punching” (shout-out to any Californication fans out there) or whatever the hell else everyone now seems to be calling it, Whitley will be doing it at the major league level by mid-season, and his 2.81 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched will be enough for everyone to forget any inherent risk that comes with young pitchers.

4) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 19.10 – Returning to High-A to start the year, but by mid-season he should have at least gotten a taste of Double-A, allowing Lewis to show off his all category potential in the upper levels of the minors as a 20-year-old.

5) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 21.4 – With him still not called up to the majors, MLBTradeRumors will mention his name 436 times in the month of July.

6) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 20.0 – Will likely return to Double-A in June when he recovers from his hamstring and ankle injuries, but the possibility of a slow start to shake some of the rust off could prevent the hype from being where it would have been had he remained healthy.

7) Carter Kieboom WASH, SS, 21.7 – With Dozier struggling, the calls for Kieboom will grow louder and louder by mid-season, juicing up his value on mid-season lists with his ETA moving up earlier than expected.

8) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 22.8 – As Orlando Arcia continues to struggle, Milwaukee will move Moustakas to SS, proving the shift has completely killed and redefined positional value, which will be the tipping point for Manfred to ban the shift. Hiura will be solid but unspectacular in his first taste of the majors before getting hot during the stretch run.

9) Alex Kirilloff MIN, OF, 21.5 – Will prove too advanced for Double-A, as the home-schooled Kirilloff was taking batting practice at his dad’s indoor training facility while the pitchers he will be facing were sitting in History class.

10) Taylor Trammell CIN, OF, 21.6 – Assigned to Double-A, and once you start producing at Double-A, the resistance on prospect lists fades away.

11) Brent Honeywell TB, RHP, 24.0 – Only a few starts into his MLB career, Honeywell will still have some rust to shake off from last year’s Tommy John surgery, but the raw stuff will remind everyone why he was ranked so high in the first place.

12) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS, 22.8 – With McMahon, Hampson, or both firmly establishing themselves as Colorado’s second baseman of the future, Rodgers ETA will become murkier and murkier, and his future in Colorado might come into question as his name pops up in trade rumors.

13) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 21.6 – He shouldn’t be on this list, but the shoulder injury will likely prevent Luzardo from passing his rookie limits by mid-season.

14) Jonathan India CIN, 3B, 22.3 – Advanced, battle tested SEC bat with power, speed, and a good feel to hit will unsurprisingly rip up the minors, proving his low off-season ranking by many outlets to be too conservative.

15) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 18.4 – A good full-season debut as an 18-year-old with Robinson’s tools is a recipe for top 10 prospect status in short order.

16) Casey Mize DET, RHP, 21.11 – Mize’s mid 90’s heat with plus command and a plus splitter will put up some crazy K/BB numbers that will finally have the computers and humans come together in universal agreement. This will lay the seeds for future cooperation between man and machine, preventing the impending robot takeover. Yes, Casey Mize will unintentionally save the world.

17) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 21.8 – Once the production comes, Robert’s top 5 fantasy prospect tools will shoot him up lists.

18) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B, 18.11 – Will be talked about as one of, if not the top, pure power hitting prospects in baseball. Gorman is close to the same age as many of the high school kids in this upcoming MLB draft.

19) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 20.1 – With the unexpected Tatis promotion, I’m half expecting Gore to be headlining the Padres rotation by August.

20) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 21.9 – The “hyped up Houston 1B prospect who is blocked” baton will now be passed to Alvarez. Seth Beer is readying himself for the hand-off on the next leg of the race.

21) Andrew Vaughn 1B, California, 21.0 – I’m always aggressive with ranking incoming draft guys, which led me to rank Andrew Benintendi in my top 10 in 2016, but also Zack Collins in my top 25 in 2017. It’s a give and take.

22) Bobby Witt Jr. SS, High School, 18.10 – The top power/speed combo in the draft, and while his hit tool is high risk and high school stats don’t mean much, he does have a 5/16 K/BB in 22 games this season to go along with 11 homers, 10 steals, and a .587 BA.

23) Jasson Dominguez OF, NYY, 16?? – Ranking Dominguez will simply be an exercise in who is willing to take on the most risk for that unknown upside. For a fantasy list especially, you have to skew upside.

24) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 20.5 – With Pache’s plus centerfield defense, he only needs to be competent against Double-A pitching as a 20-year-old for the hype to really start to push and shove like a 5th grade bully.

25) Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 22.11 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2018, so no news will be good news, but out of sight, out of mind is a very real thing on prospect lists. Just ask Dusty Colorado.

26) A.J. Puk OAK, LHP, 23.11 – Puk should have at least a few rehab starts under his belt by mid-season, which will be enough to prove his stuff has returned and allow him to flash that elite K upside.

27) Gavin Lux LAD, SS, 21.4 – Speaking of upside, Lux might not have a ton of it, but a 21-year-old with a moderate power/speed combo and a good feel to hit who is performing well at the upper level of the minors will be tough to overlook.

28) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 20.3 – Aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, giving Waters the opportunity to prove he is among the most talented prospects in baseball. I wouldn’t bet against him.

29) Vidal Brujan TB, 2B, 21.2 – Tampa takes it nice and slow with their prospects, as Brujan will head back to High-A where he put up a 1.015 OPS in 27 games last year. He might not be able to do quite enough damage at Double-A, if any, for mid-season prospect lists to really fire up the hype train for him.

30) Andres Gimenez NYM, SS, 20.7 – I expect Gimenez to perform well at Double-A, but not explode, which should keep his prospect stock relatively stable.

31) Daz Cameron DET, OF, 22.2 – Hit tool and plate approach will be good enough against advanced Triple-A pitching for Cameron’s power/speed combo to shine through.

32) Adley Rutschman C, Oregon State, 21.2 – Slashing .420/.592/.570 with 8 homers and a 18/37 K/BB in 26 games. I should note that Vaughn in particular (13 for 52 with 2 homers) and Rutschman (2 homers in his last 14 games) haven’t been quite as good since conference play began.

33) Jazz Chisholm ARI, SS, 21.2 – Another aggressive Double-A assignment, but this one is a little riskier with Jazz’ 32.5% K% at High-A

34) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 20.11 – I wouldn’t be shocked if Anderson was up with the big league club by list season, and nothing jumps you up lists faster than performing well in small MLB samples.

35) George Valera CLE, OF, 18.5 – Everybody who was able to draft Valera later than they should have been able to in their off-season prospect draft should thank that hamate bone injury for ending his season after just 6 games. The buy window will be slammed shut by mid-season.

36) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 20.8 – Held back in extended spring training in an effort to limit his early season innings, but also because he may not be 100% healthy after elbow troubles last season and collarbone soreness that held him out of the Arizona Fall League. The injuries are starting to dampen the hype.

37) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 23.3 – Returning to Double-A where he put up a pitching line of 1.72/0.99/78/22 in 52.1 IP last season. I expect Cease to be eased into the Majors as a relief pitcher to help Chicago down the stretch in the playoff race.

38) Luis Urias SD, SS/2B, 21.10 – Surprise … Tatis cracked the roster and Urias was sent down. How sad is it that it is absolutely shocking and worthy of praise when baseball teams actually have their best players break camp.

39) Luis Garcia WASH, SS, 18.10 – Back in 2017 I had Leody Taveras ranked 99th and Fernando Tatis Jr. ranked 100th (the vast majority of lists did not have Tatis in their top 100 at all), and wrote, “Hopefully these two lottery tickets turn out better than the one sitting on my coffee table right now.” I don’t think I have to tell you how that turned out so far. Garcia is in a similar boat where the numbers haven’t necessarily been there, but he has been very young compared to his competition and the talent is evident.

40) Jeter Downs LAD, SS, 20.8 – I talked about Downs being one of my favorite underrated prospects in 2019 on the Reunion episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast, where Ralph Lifshitz and I ran down our favorite prospect targets.

41) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 19.8 – Strong full-season debuts from 19-year-old power-speed combos is a sure way to get the fantasy community dreaming about that upside.

42) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 21.8 – Will be out for about the first month of the season with an upper back strain, which could delay his Triple-A promotion and thus delay the real hype until 2020 off-season lists.

43) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 18.3 – Aggressive assignment to Full-A gives Rodriguez more at-bats to impress prospect rankers, and is an indicator of how high Seattle is on him.

44) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 22.2 – The power is coming and Hayes will be knocking on the door of the bigs.

45) Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 20.10 – Will make the leap this year with an improved plate approach and development in the power department.

46) Nico Hoerner CHC, SS, 21.11 – Assigned to Double-A to start the year. I guess the theme of a lot of the risers on this predicted list is if your team believes in you, and gives you the opportunity to shine at higher levels, the list makers will love you.

47) Hunter Bishop OF, ASU, 20.9 – Turned it up even more since conference play started, with 6 homers in his last 8 games. He’s also young for his draft class. Bishop’s fantasy fypd stock is soaring.

48) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 22.0 – The only thing between Riley and Atlanta’s 3B job is the brittle and declining Donaldson. I don’t think he will take it over by mid-season, so short of him going Rhys Hoskins at Triple-A, his value should remain stable.

49) Jesus Sanchez TB, OF, 21.6 – Sanchez’ dynasty value has remained pretty stable since 2017, with solid but unexciting stat lines, and I’m expecting the same for 2019.

50) Victor Victor Mesa MIA, OF, 22.8 – Somebody has to be a dropper (taking into account all the graduates) and I’ll go with Victor Victor as he gets picked apart by professional scouts and adjusts to stateside ball.

Just missed: Luis Garcia, Nick Madrigal, Corbin Carroll, CJ Abrams, Riley Greene, Trevor Larnach, Xavier Edwards

Graduates: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Victor Robles, Fernando Tatis Jr., Nick Senzel, Alex Reyes, Tyler O’Neill, Pete Alonso, Garrett Hampson, Chris Paddack, Christian Stewart, Yusei Kikuchi, Yusniel Diaz, Austin Hays, Danny Jansen, Francisco Mejia, Josh James, Corbin Burnes, Mike Soroka

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 27, 2019March 28, 2019 by Michael Halpern

10 Dynasty Baseball Slanted Bold Predictions

I hate bold prediction articles. I hate how embarrassingly wrong all of them are at the end of the season. I hate how they make you a worse fantasy player, because you get it in your head that these things are going to happen, and they aren’t going to happen. I hate how they aren’t really predictions, because if you were really predicting it, it would be reflected in your rankings. Here are my 10 Dynasty Baseball Slanted Bold Predictions:

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
Updated March Top 100 Prospects Ranking
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)
The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/19)

1) Daz Cameron will have a Ramon Laureano-like August and September, helping many a fantasy team take home the title in those crucial final months. The power is definitely coming. Just watch him crush this grand slam on Sunday. With groundball rates consistently under 40% for the last two seasons, this power breakout was inevitable. Add to that plus speed, plus centerfield defense, and a clear path to playing time, and Cameron is one of my favorite underrated prospects in general.

2) Garrett Stubbs will be the strong side of a starting catcher platoon with Robinson Chirinos/Max Stassi by June, and finish the season as a top 15 catcher. Chirinos was one of the worst pitch framers in baseball last season according to StatCorner, costing his team 14.5 runs. I’m sure those numbers will look better with Houston, but point being he is not some defensive catching wizard Houston will feel compelled to keep in the linuep (conversely, Stassi was one of the best pitch framers, saving Houston 8.4 runs). Stubbs also brings a unique skillset compared to Chirinos/Stassi in hitting left handed, making good contact with a 15.6% K% (Chirinos struck out 32.9% of the time and Stassi 29.6%), and above average speed, going 35 for 38 on stolen base attempts in his 304 game MiLB career (Chirinos and Stassi can both be timed with a sundial as my high school coach used to often yell at me as I ran the bases). With Chirinos signed to only a one year deal, I foresee Stubbs being drafted as a top 10 catcher in redraft leagues in 2020.

3) Hunter Harvey will remain healthy all season, and armed with a new splitter, will re-establish himself as one of the best young starters in baseball. Harvey was sitting 95-97 with a high of 98 MPH this spring. Baltimore has babied him the last couple years (preventing him from throwing the splitter) with the intent on keeping him healthy, but that obviously hasn’t worked, so the training wheels are off now. I expect Harvey to debut this season and will boldly predict a sub 3.80 ERA with over a strikeout per inning in 70 IP, and would keep my eye on him in redraft leagues as the talent and upside are all still there.

4) AJ Puk will be drafted as a top 30 SP in 2020 redraft leagues after being a strikeout machine in the 2nd half of the season, while also picking up the win in game 7 of the WS with 6 shutout innings and 10 K’s. Puk had Tommy John surgery on April 10, 2018. Even with the most conservative of rehab schedules, he is going to be ready to go by the 2nd half, and his strikeout numbers will have fantasy owners drooling over the potential. Oakland also has a terrible starting rotation, and with them managing Puk’s innings early in the season, he will just be hitting his stride by the time the playoffs roll around. If Luzardo gets healthy, and Oakland trades for a starter or two, they have the dominant offense and bullpen to break that Billy Beane playoff curse.

5) Carter Kieboom will be the Nationals starting 2B by August and OPS over .800 in the final two months. Kieboom had an impressive spring, slashing .279/.353/.558 with 3 homers and a 10/6 K/BB in 43 at-bats. Two of those homers came off Justin Verlander. He’s got a good feel to hit with natural loft in his swing. Brian Dozier is on a 1 year deal, so Washington will not hesitate to make the switch if they are in the playoff race and Dozier is hurt or under performing. Washington might not be so patient waiting on Dozier’s patented 2nd half surge which never came last season.

6) Nick Neidert will be drafted as a top 50 starter in redraft leagues next season after he puts up impressive K/BB numbers down the stretch in his MLB debut. I’ve been high on Nick Neidert for years now, because plus changeup guys can’t get love on mainstream lists. Scouts love breaking balls more than Roastmaster General Jeff Ross does. He also has plus control and command. He’s basically a poor man’s Chris Paddack (Paddack has the superior fastball).

7) Austin Meadows will go 20/20 with a .280+ average and be a top 50 overall player in 2019. Meadows has the 83rd fastest sprint speed in baseball, but his run times for 85 ft (which is about the distance needed to steal a base) is 47th fastest. I can spend all day playing around with those Statcast 90 ft splits. He’s displayed a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career with a smooth lefty swing that is geared for both average and power. He’s gonna be a stud.

8) Brad Zimmer will be Cleveland’s starting centerfielder by June and will finish the season with 10+ homers and 20+ steals. Zimmer has been progressing well from major shoulder surgery in July 2018, and with Cleveland’s outfield far from locked down, he should have the opportunity to re-establish himself as Cleveland’s starting CF when healthy. I’ll bring Kyle Zimmer into this one too. His fastball has been in the mid 90’s this spring and is impressing out of the bullpen in Royals camp. I foresee that the Zimmer family is due for some good luck in 2019.

9) Clint Frazier will overtake Brett Gardner for the starting LF job and will hit .265 with 20 homers during the final 4 months of the season. I guess my theme here is talented players being underrated because of recent injury history. If I wrote this last year, David Dahl would have definitely been included. So would Trevor Story, Matt Chapman, and Ozzie Albies judging by the one article I did manage to put out last off-season where I ranked the top inexperienced players and prospects for 2018.

10) I will shatter the bold prediction record and go exactly 7 for 10 on these probably too vague and maybe not bold enough predictions.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 27, 2019March 28, 2019 by Michael Halpern

Razzball Prospect Podcast: Reunion Episode

It’s the reunion episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast, as Halph comes together one more time to bullshit about all things minor leagues. Ralph Lifshitz and I start by covering the Fernando Tatis Jr. news before moving on to discuss our favorite underrated/sleeper prospects to target in dynasty leagues, including Daz Cameron, Jeter Downs, Julio Rodriguez, George Valera, Nick Neidert, Daniel Lynch, and many more. Click the link the below to check it out:

CLICK HERE FOR THE RAZZBALL PROSPECT PODCAST: REUNION EPISODE

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast
10 Dynasty Baseball Slanted Bold Predictions
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
Updated March Top 100 Prospects Ranking
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)
The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/19)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 19, 2019March 23, 2019 by Michael Halpern

Halp’s Dynasty Baseball Podcast: Finishing Up My March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking

The final installment of my March Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking comes in podcast form as I run down the 76th-114th ranked prospects on my list:

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CLICK HERE FOR 1-25
CLICK HERE FOR 26-50
CLICK HERE FOR 51-75

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)
The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/19)

76) Joey Bart SF, C, 22.3 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 69/25/83/.259/.335/.463/3

77) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 24.9 – 2019 Projection: 41/11/39/.255/.330/.439/4 Prime Projection: 82/25/79/.263/.350/.469/9

78) Keibert Ruiz LAD, C, 20.8 – ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 64/21/72/.283/.341/.469/0

79) Seth Beer HOU, 1B/OF, 22.7 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 68/30/81/.268/.342/.480/1

80) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 19.8 – ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 16/3.32/1.10/220 in 190 IP

81) Luis Garcia PHI, SS, 18.6 – ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 88/18/73/.278/.353/.449/16

82) Kyle Wright ATL, RHP, 23.6 – ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 14/3.69/1.24/180 in 180 IP

83) Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 23.0 – 2019 Projection: 4/4.31/1.38/46 in 58 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.54/1.20/185 in 185 IP

84) Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 20.10 – ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/17/72/.262/.318/.420/28

85) Nico Hoerner CHC, SS, 21.11 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 88/15/63/.281/.363/.426/18

86) Matt Manning DET, RHP, 21.3 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 15/3.61/1.27/215 in 190 IP

87) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 22.2 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 86/20/81/.279/.362/.453/14

88) Cole Tucker PIT, SS, 22.9 ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 81/17/72/.268/.331/.418/21

89) Estevan Florial NYY, OF, 21.6 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 88/23/75/.252/.344/.451/21

90) Isaac Paredes DET, SS, 20.1 – ETA: 2020/21 Prime Projection: 83/20/78/.291/.372/.468/3

91) Nolan Jones CLE, 3B, 20.11 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 82/28/86/.253/.367/.485/2

92) Travis Swaggerty PIT, OF, 21.9 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.274/.338/.431/23

93) Brendan McKay TB, LHP, 23.3 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 14/3.68/1.17/189 in 183 IP

94) Justus Sheffield SEA, LHP, 22.10 – 2019 Projection: 7/4.36/1.38/109 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.66/1.28/174 in 180 IP

95) Griffin Canning LAA, RHP, 22.11 – ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 13/3.68/1.23/182 in 177 IP

96) Corey Ray MIL, OF, 24.6 – ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 78/21/71/.238/.318/.445/26

97) Kameron Misner OF, Missouri, 21.3 – ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/23/79/.260/.350/.468/17

98) Hunter Bishop OF, ASU, 20.9 – ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.265/.340/.473/16

99) Jordyn Adams LAA, OF, 19.5 – ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/18/75/.250/.340/.439/28

100) Jerrion Ealy OF, HS, 18.7 – ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 91/21/86/.277/.345/.461/30

101) Maurice Hampton OF, HS, 17.8 – ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/24/83/.258/.330/.468/23

102) Robert Puason SS, OAK, 16?? – ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/23/87/.277/.351/.479/22

103) Jahmai Jones LAA, 2B, 21.8 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 93/17/78/.271/.337/.434/23

104) Alec Bohm PHI, 3B, 22.8 – ETA: 2020/21 Prime Projection: 77/25/92/.278/.346/.477/4

105) Wander Javier MIN, SS, 20.3 – ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 87/21/82/.278/.342/.455/15

106) Marco Luciano SF, SS, 17.7 – ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/28/93/.255/.338/.483/7

107) Adrian Morejon SD, SP, 20.1 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.29/169 in 173 IP

108) Adonis Medina PHI, RHP, 22.4 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 13/3.73/1.19/193 in 181 IP

109) Brusdar Graterol MIN, RHP, 20.7 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 14/3.52/1.23/190 in 180 IP

110) Nate Pearson TOR, RHP, 22.7 – ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 13/3.58/1.24/192 in 180 IP

111) Colton Welker COL, 3B, 21.6 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 77/23/84/.272/.338/470/5

112) Tyler Nevin COL, 1B/3B, 21.10 – ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 79/25/91/.277/.348/.485/5

113) Kevin Smith TOR, SS, 22.9 – ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 74/24/77/.248/.312/.456/12

114) Anthony Alford TOR, OF, 24.8 – ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 79/17/73/.263/.328/.428/16

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 13, 2019March 20, 2019 by Michael Halpern

51-75: March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections)

Things change fast in the prospect world. Even during the off-season these lists can be fluid. Now that we’ve actually laid eyes on many of the 2019 versions of these prospects, and have the first indication of how their parent clubs view them fitting in on the future roster, I decided to update the first 100 of my 2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking. Here is the March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking: 51-75 (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections):

CLICK HERE FOR 1-25
CLICK HERE FOR 26-50
CLICK HERE FOR 76-114 (PODCAST)

+17 (51) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 20.5 – I was the high guy on Pache back in 2017 when I was the only list to have him in my top 100, telling you to ignore the poor numbers and draft the talent. He’s currently 10 for 22 for 2 homers, 1 steal and a 1.364 OPS. Looking at the other prospects I ranked towards the back of that list, I was also high on Austin Hays, Carter Kieboom (who took Justin Verlander deep twice yesterday), Colton Welker, and Bubba Thompson relative to the rest of the “industry.” Not bad if I say so myself. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 83/19/76/.269/.3335/.448/26

+101 (52) Austin Hays BAL, OF, 23.9 – On a rampage this spring, blasting another homer yesterday and now has 4 total with a .355 BA and 1.246 OPS. He is the favorite to open the season as Baltimore’s starting RF, and there is no reason not to jump back on the bandwagon. He’s worth a flyer late in redraft leagues too. (Update: Sent down to Triple-A. Note to self: Never take merit into account when trying to guess playing time decisions) 2019 Projection: 52/17/61/.254/.318/.436/2 Prime Projection: 81/26/87/.271/.337/.468/5

-10 (53) Josh James HOU, RHP, 26.1 – The risk of James not being utilized in the most advantageous of ways for fantasy owners is getting greater and greater by the day. The quad injury took him out the running for the 5th starter job, but there were indications even before the injury that he was not the favorite. Forrest Whitley is also knocking on the door and Dallas Keuchel is still not out of the question. The strikeout upside is unquestionable, but opportunity is becoming a legitimate concern. 2019 Projection: 5/3.91/1.28/105 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.63/1.28/193 in 170 IP

-8 (54) Victor Victor Mesa MIA, OF, 22.8 – I was one of the first to pump the breaks on the Gurriel brothers hype train back in 2016 (incidentally, I think Lourdes is being underrated now), being leery of the Cuban hype machine, but I might have gotten a little too swept up in the Victor Victor hype. Just goes to show you that you can get swept up in propaganda even if you know it is coming. Mesa got hurt in his first game this spring, so the uncertainty of how good he really is continues to grow. ETA: Mid 2020 Prime Projection: 88/14/71/.277/.334/.436/24

55) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 21.8 – Cleveland has been so great with pitching prospects recently (Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, Bauer) it is hard not to have an extra tick or two of confidence in McKenzie. And why shouldn’t we, considering developing talent is at least half the battle and maybe much more than that. An upper back strain will keep him out about 6 weeks, but that shouldn’t impact his dynasty value much, if at all. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.14/188 in 176 IP

56) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 24.5 – Battling for the last spot in Milwaukee’s rotation, but considering the attrition rate of starters and Milwaukee’s shaky rotation to begin with, he should get his chance at some point this year even if he loses the competition. 2019 Projection: 6/3.94/1.27/110 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.61/1.18/175 in 180 IP

57) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 20.11 – Soroka has a bum shoulder. Gausman already had inflammation in his right shoulder and got shellacked in his spring debut. Mike Foltynewicz has a sore pitching elbow and just started playing light catch. Touki Toussaint has nasty stuff but still has a lot to prove. Luiz Gohara is feeling tightness in his shoulder. All of this to say it is not so far fetched that we see Anderson make more than a handful of major league starts this season. I moved up his ETA up from late 2020, to late 2019. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 15/3.45/1.20/210 in 190 IP

58) A.J. Puk OAK, LHP, 23.11 – With a stacked bullpen and how desperate Oakland is for impact starters, a rotation spot should be waiting for Puk when he is ready. In redraft leagues, I would be closely monitoring Puk’s progress, and be ready to pounce at the first hint of him rounding into form. ETA: 5/3.70/1.33/84 in 72 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.42/1.26/214 in 186 IP

59) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 22.0 – Although Riley’s overall spring numbers are poor (.615 OPS), I take it as a good sign that he has a solid 7/3 K/BB in 32 at-bats after striking out 4 times in 8 at-bats in Spring 2017 and 10 times in 24 at-bats in Spring 2018. Maybe saying it is a “good sign” is a little too strong, but it’s better than the alternative. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 79/29/93/.262/.332/.485/2

60) Jesus Sanchez TB, OF, 21.6 – 1 for 13 with 1 homer this spring. Was optioned back to the minors this weekend. Sanchez has a good feel to hit, plus raw power, and some speed too. Hit ultimate hitting profile can still go in any number of different directions. This 21-year-old season should start to truly reveal the player he will likely become. ETA: Mid 2020 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.276/.332/.478/9

61) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 20.3 – Now seems like a good time to tell you that I’ve been battling the flu this week, but like German Marquez, it’s not gonna stop me from performing. I’ve been trying to stay hydrated as much as possible, so I guess you can say I drew waters out of the faucet all week … my bad, I try to avoid bad puns in my writing, but I get to blame that one on being sick. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/84/.278/.335/.474/20

-28 (62) Mike Soroka ATL, RHP, 21.8 – I find trying to differentiate injury risk between pitchers one of the toughest things to do as a ranker, because all pitchers are already high risk. But now that Soroka has felt renewed pain in his shoulder, it is clear I didn’t factor in last season’s shoulder injury enough on my original ranking. ETA: Mid 2019 Prime Projection: 13/3.49/1.12/170 in 182 IP

+10 (63) Touki Toussaint ATL, RHP, 22.9 – Gets a bump now that he is the favorite for the last spot in the rotation. He’s got nasty stuff evidenced by a 84.9 MPH average exit velocity against and 32 K’s in 29 MLB IP, but control/command is still a work in progress and ultimately the reliever risk is very real. 2019 Projection: 8/4.23/1.38/141 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.81/1.31/186 in 180 IP

64) George Valera CLE, OF, 18.5 – Saw a great gif in the Rotoworld MiLB Forum comparing Valera’s swing to Robinson Cano’s. It really is uncanny. That forum is a great place to talk about prospects in general and to get the early scoop on some pop up guys during the season. You should definitely check it out. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 88/23/88/.291/.365/.493/9

65) Nick Madrigal CHW, 2B, 22.1 – I can’t decide if I’m underrating Madrigal or overrating him. He seems like one of the most divisive prospects in this year’s FYPD pool. It’s going to come down to how hard his contact is now that he is healed up from last season’s wrist injury. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 92/11/63/.296/.351/.418/24

66) Corbin Carroll OF, HS, 18.7 – Haven’t heard anything new on Carroll. While he is generally ranked too high to say he is underrated, I think his small stature is really preventing the hype train from going into overdrive. Prime Projection: 96/23/92/.285/.358/.478/26 ETA: 2023

67) CJ Abrams SS, HS, 18.6 – Abrams is now the favorite to be the 1st high school player selected in the draft. Witt’s hit tool is too risky for teams drafting at the very top. Prime Projection: 96/18/71/.287/.349/.453/29 ETA: 2023

68) Riley Greene OF, HS, 18.6 – Reports from Fangraphs have been glowing about Greene in the early going this year. You should really check out that article if haven’t already for tons of great draft nuggets. Prime Projection: 91/25/92/.288/.373/.505/13 ETA: 2023

69) Jazz Chisholm ARI, SS, 21.2 – Chisholm has been working on his patience this spring. “You can definitely get yourself out when you go up there overaggressive instead of going up there and taking your pitch and hitting your pitch,” he said. “I’m just working on staying a little less aggressive but still being aggressive. Cutting it loose when I get the pitch to cut it loose on, not trying to do too much.” So he is trying to be aggressive but also not be aggressive and wants to cut it loose but also not try to do too much. Who said this hitting a baseball thing was easy? ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.241/.313/.438/16

70) Trevor Larnach MIN, OF, 22.1 – Seems like there are a couple guys in each 25 player group that I don’t have anything interesting to add. Larnach and Edwards are those guys in this group. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 78/26/87/.263/.347/.483/2

71) Xavier Edwards SD, SS, 19.8 – “As above, so below.” ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 103/10/56/.291/.366/.401/36

72) Nathaniel Lowe TB, 1B, 23.9 – Not a great spring for someone trying to force their way into a crowded lineup and prove they aren’t a one year wonder, going 3 for 32 with 14 K’s and 1 walk. Ultimately, how he performs at Triple-A is all that will matter. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 73/25/82/.264/.339/.470/1

73) Michael Chavis BOS, 3B, 23.8 – Since I wrote about Chavis in my first Dynasty Baseball Rundown of the season, he has only continued to mash with 4 homers and a 1.152 OPS. Whether he breaks into the majors through trade, injury, or poor performance, Chavis has the type of power that can carry your fantasy squad for a few weeks if he gets hot at the right time. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 72/28/88/.254/.328/.476/5

+130 (74) Kyle Lewis SEA, OF, 23.9 – The knee looks good and that is all I need to see for Lewis to rise up my rankings. I ranked him first on my pre-draft list in 2016, and I’m just happy to see him healthy again. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 79/27/89/.265/.343/.474/8

-20 (75) Alex Verdugo LAD, OF, 22.11 – The whispers over how well Verdugo handles the mental aspect of the game have grown louder and louder. The power has always been an issue for fantasy, and even if you don’t buy into the mental concerns (lack of effort and focus), if it prevents the Dodgers or another team from really giving him a true chance to grow and develop at the major league level, it is a problem. 2019 Projection: 40/8/36/.273/.335/.415/5 Prime Projection: 84/18/82/.285/.351/.447/9

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 10, 2019March 10, 2019 by Michael Halpern

The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/19)

Throughout the 2019 season, I will be running down some of the notable performances impacting dynasty baseball leagues, or anything that might have caught my eye in general. Here is The Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/10/19):

Click the below links for my previous off-season content:
March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking
2019 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospect Rankings
11 Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By
2020 Top 90 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (1st Edition)

Bo Bichette TOR, SS – If you are going to watch only one gif of prospect spring training exploits, this gif (made by Prospect Live’s Lance Brozdowski) of the ball taking off like a rocket ship from the bat of Bo Bichette is the one to watch. Part of me thinks it is too good to be true and there is something going on with the speed of the video, but either way, it is really fun to watch.

Anthony Alford TOR, OF – I told you not to give up on Alford’s plus athleticism in my Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking (I acquired him as a throw-in in one of my leagues) and he is showing you why with a beastly spring, going 7 for 21 with 4 homers and 2 steals. He isn’t going to break camp with the team, but if he puts up big numbers in Triple-A, he’s got a shot to make an impact in the 2nd half.

Kyle Lewis SEA, OF – Blowing up this spring, going 7 for 15 with 2 homers and a stolen base. More importantly, the knee looks healthy. Lewis is firmly back in my Top 100. Hold on to him for dear life.

Jo Adell LAA, OF – Speaking of knee injuries, Adell avoided a serious one while running the bases yesterday, but he did come away with a sprained right ankle and strained left hamstring that should keep him out for several weeks. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value at all, but it is a reminder that the injury gods are always lurking, ready to destroy your fantasy teams on a whim.

Cristian Pache ATL, OF – 8 for 19 with 2 homers and a steal. Considering his bat is supposed to be a weakness, this is quite the impressive performance. He has a chance to explode up prospect lists by mid-season.

German Marquez COL, SP – Struck out 9 batters in 3 IP with the flu. That’s some Michael Jordan shit right there, except Jordan did it in Game 5 of the Championship series, while Marquez did it in Spring Training. So I guess maybe it isn’t some Michael Jordan shit.

Matt Strahm SD, SP – The Strahm hype is real, throwing 4 scoreless innings with 2 hits and 8 K’s yesterday. He won’t be underrated in smarter fantasy leagues, but my guess is you will be able to steal him in the majority of leagues out there.

Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF – The hype has been very quiet on Eloy, maybe because he is 3 for 23 with 8 K’s, 0 walks and 1 homer. He’s making it really hard for prospect social media to get up in arms and outraged over manipulating his service time. Help us, help you.

Keston Hiura MIL, 2B – Starting to heat up, homering and driving in four yesterday. He’s now slashing .273/.385/.591 with 2 homers and a steal. This guy is going to contribute in every category when he finally gets his shot.

Ronald Guzman TEX, 1B – Hitting .292 with 3 homers and a 1.079 OPS. Guzman is a big dude at 6’5”, 225 who focused on being a good hitter rather than selling out for power in the minors. Now that he is entering his physical prime, there is some serious underrated upside here.

Triston McKenzie CLE, SP – Shut down with an upper back strain. It’s probably from carrying around all that extra weight. The 6’5”, 165-pound McKenzie could stand to lose a few 😉

Ryan McMahon COL, 2B – Leads all qualified spring hitters with a 1.333 OPS. Garrett Hampson is 7th with a 1.033 OPS. It’s never easy with Colorado.

Lewis Brinson MIA, OF – Leading all hitters with 5 homers, although a 8/2 K/BB in 26 at-bats is not exactly sparkling. He was bad last year, but the numbers looked even worse because he was also unlucky. There is nowhere to go but up.

Domingo Santana SEA, OF – Slashing .455/.520/1.091 with 4 homers and a 5/3 K/BB. I’ve still seen Domingo going silly low in drafts. I would own him everywhere at the price he is available at right now.

Austin Hays BAL, OF – Getting an early jump on his bounce back season, slashing .320/.346/.800 with 3 homers. With Mancini, Hays, Stewart and Diaz, the Orioles corner OF spots are up for grabs.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B – Left oblique strain will keep Guerrero out for about 3 weeks. Toronto already announced he will start the year in the minors, but it might push his timetable back another week or two at least. This hurts more for the people aggressively drafting him in re-draft leagues.

Domingo German NYY, SP – My guess is German is next man up with Severino on the shelf. He’s got nasty stuff and is dominating this spring with a 2.35 ERA and a 12/1 K/BB in 7.2 IP. By the time Severino returns, Paxton will probably be on the DL. Or CC. Or Tanaka. Point being, German is going to get a ton of innings this year one way or another.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on March 6, 2019March 25, 2019 by Michael Halpern

26-50: March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections)

Things change fast in the prospect world. Even during the off-season these lists can be fluid. Now that we’ve actually laid eyes on many of the 2019 versions of these prospects, and have the first indication of how their parent clubs view them fitting in on the future roster, I decided to update the first 100 of my 2019 Top 472 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking. Here is the March 2019 Top 100 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking: 26-50 (w/ new blurbs, updated rankings, and slightly updated projections):

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+5 (26) Christin Stewart DET, OF, 25.4 – One of my favorite underrated prospects, Stewart is performing well this spring, going 5 for 18 with 2 homers and a .944 OPS, but more importantly he proved he is fully recovered from the core muscle surgery which ended his 2018 season. Take advantage of the fact he gets no respect on traditional lists because of his poor defense, and draft him in every league he is available (redraft, shallow keeper, etc …). I want to say he will provide similar value to Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, but while Stewart’s launch angle and strikeout rate should be similar, his exit velocity readings weren’t as beastly as those two. 2019 Projection: 73/26/85/.249/.336/.470/1 Prime Projection: 77/31/93/.254/.345/.489/1

27) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 21.8 – The injured thumb that tanked Robert’s 2018 season is jammed again after a headfirst slide into 2nd base. It’s supposedly not that serious and should sideline him only a few days, but it’s not a good sign how easily it got re-injured. Also, maybe we shouldn’t be sliding headfirst in spring training games, although are spring training games any less meaningful for prospects than minor league games? ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 86/27/88/.265/.338/.481/18

28) Jonathan India CIN, 3B, 22.3 – Nothing new to say on India and Gorman. They are still my top 2 picks in a first year player draft. ETA: Mid 2020 Prime Projection: 91/24/85/.268/.346/.463/14

29) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B, 18.11 – Look up one inch. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 88/36/105/.265/.355/.520/2

30) Yusei Kikuchi SEA, LHP, 27.9 – Hasn’t looked all that hot this spring, but he did look better in his latest outing. I think Kikuchi couldn’t care less about feeding the hype machine, and is slowly adjusting to a new routine and getting himself ready for when it counts. I wouldn’t expect to truly see him at his best and open up his full bag of tricks until the regular season begins. 2019 Projection: 12/3.69/1.21/163 in 170 IP

31) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 20.1 – This is a lofty ranking for a young pitching prospect who hasn’t really proven anything yet, and if this thing goes sideways, I’m blaming that flashy, Rockettes-style leg kick. I even mentioned we all might be getting taken in by that leg kick back in my 2017 MLB Draft Ranking, where I ranked Gore 5th and said, “I am a sucker for a big lefty with a funky delivery, and Gore not only checks those boxes, but he also has elite control of a low 90’s fastball, along with three different secondary pitches (slider, curveball, changeup) that flash plus and project as above average or better. Nothing about him screams ace, and maybe we are all being pulled in by that leg kick (something I am seriously considering, ha) but all together, there doesn’t seem to be many weaknesses, either.” The very same thing could still be said about him today. ETA: 2021/22 Prime Projection: 15/3.21/1.07/215 in 200 IP

32) Casey Mize DET, RHP, 21.11 – Mize looked great in his spring debut (and spring finale), striking out 2 in 2 IP and reaching 98 MPH on the stadium gun. He was reassigned to minor league camp yesterday. I think he could more than hold his own in the major league rotation right now, but MLB loves to hide their most exciting young players in the minors for years, just to make sure they lose as much of their marketability as possible before debuting in some meaningless game in August/September after over half their teams fan base has already checked out on the season. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 16/3.49/1.15/215 in 190 IP

33) Andrew Vaughn 1B, California, 21.0 – What the hell, I’m adding 2020 First Year Player Draft guys into this ranking too. Vaughn ranked 4th on my 2020 Top 90 First Year Player Draft Rankings, but I wrote I wouldn’t blame you if you took him #1. And now I’m not blaming myself and would take him #1. He is wrecking college ball right now, slashing .529/.680/1.176 with 7 homers and a 5/15 K/BB in 10 games, although Cal doesn’t really get into the meat of their conference schedule until this weekend.. Plus hit, plus power, and plus proximity. Prime Projection: 82/30/94/.285/.361/.514/2 ETA: 2021

+43 (34) Yusniel Diaz BAL, OF, 22.6 – Count me all-in on Yusniel Diaz. He has a good feel to hit with average speed and if spring training is any indication, his power is about to take the next step. Mitch Haniger is the ceiling comp. ETA: Mid 2019 Prime Projection: 87/26/88/.276/.345/.481/10

35) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 18.4 – I drafted Robinson in the 2nd round of my 12 team, hometown dynasty league, passing up on players I had previously ranked higher than him in Gavin Lux and Luis Garcia. Some of it had to do with preferring upside based on my roster construction and league set-up, but when the pressure was on, I wanted Robinson. It either goes to show you shouldn’t be a slave to anyone’s rankings, even your own, or conversely, when the pressure is on and emotions come into play, you make stupid decisions. We’ll figure out which one a few years from now, but until then, I like to put my money where my mouth is, so I bumped Robinson up over those guys. Actions speak louder than words. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/28/95/.268/.355/.498/14

36) Bobby Witt Jr. SS, High School, 18.10 – Witt certainly doesn’t lack for confidence, saying last year, “My goal in baseball is to be the best that’s ever played. I want to set my goals high and keep going after them until I eventually can’t do it anymore.” He is old for his high school class and the hit tool needs improvement, but the plus power-speed combo is worth chasing after. Prime Projection: 88/26/92/.257/.339/.479/21 ETA: 2024

37) Jasson Dominguez OF, NYY, 16?? – An international man of mystery. There is still not very much information out there on Dominguez other than a few “The Scout” style Youtube videos of him on the backfields. I just can’t resist the upside. Prime Projection: 96/28/94/.281/.357/.511/19 ETA: 2025

38) Gavin Lux LAD, SS, 21.4 – One of my Twitter followers, @ReedDeSalvo, caught a few Lux at-bats this spring and came away impressed, saying, “Got to see Gavin Lux’s at-bats yesterday. Roping a Thyago Viera fastball for a hit. Didn’t realize how big Lux is — 6’2, 190 legit — his stance is a slightly more upright KBryant (not comparing just saying). You’re definitely high on him, but man I REALLY liked his physique.” You heard the man, don’t sleep on Lux’s physique, and considering he is the same age as the juniors in the 2019 MLB draft, there just might be another level of power to be unlocked. ETA: Late 2020 Prime Projection: 93/20/69/.275/.352/.450/17

39) Danny Jansen TOR, C, 24.0 – Going only 3 for 15 this spring has kept the hype train in check and also kept his price reasonable in redraft leagues. Jansen would be my top late round catcher to target. 2019 Projection: 51/15/59/.257/.345/.429/2 Prime Projection: 64/21/73/.273/.351/.463/6

40) Vidal Brujan TB, 2B, 21.2 – Joey Wendle, Daniel Robertson, Brandon Lowe, and Nick Solak are all currently ahead of Brujan on Tampa’s 2B depth chart. The competition might be even tougher in the OF, plus Brujan has never played a single inning in the OF during his minor league career. Tampa loves to platoon, and while Brujan is a switch hitter, he hits righties much better than lefties. I’m not dinging his value for any of this, but it is something I would keep in mind, and it might make me a little more willing to trade him if the right deal came along. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 91/13/56/.283/.348/.419/33

41) Andres Gimenez NYM, SS, 20.7 – Like Bichette, Gimenez is another player I would love to get sprint speed data on, because I have seen his speed grades all over the place. Maybe one day I’ll get my ass out from behind the computer and start timing these guys on my own. Like my grandfather used to say, “if you want something done right, you gotta do it yourself.” ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 92/17/66/.288/.343/.421/20

42) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 20.8 – Trade to Miami puts him in a better ballpark, and while Miami is a Quad-A team right now, they can’t be this bad forever. Although they seemed to target a whole bunch of high risk/high reward prospects in their rebuild (Brinson, Harrison, Alfaro), so maybe their chances are actually pretty high of being this bad for a long time. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 14/3.42/1.07/188 in 182 IP

43) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 23.3 – Made his spring debut yesterday, pitching a scoreless inning and consistently hitting 98 MPH with his fastball. Control was shaky, throwing only 8 of 14 pitches for strikes, but that can be expected for his first outing. ETA: 2020 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.29/196 in 174 IP

44) Luis Urias SD, SS/2B, 21.10 – 6 for 18 with a 6/1 K/BB, 1 homer, and 1 steal. Strikeout rate was also considerably higher in 2018 than it had been in previous years, and although it came with a small spike in power, his 3.4 degree launch angle in his small MLB sample isn’t a great sign. DJ LeMahieu without Coors would be my best comp, albeit with higher upside because he has been much younger than his competition every step of the way. 2019 Projection: 69/10/50/.262/.328/.392/6 Prime Projection: 96/18/63/.293/.371/.469/12

45) Francisco Mejia SD, C/OF, 23.5 – Cracked his first spring homer yesterday against Mike Leake. He’s now 8 for 16 this spring with a 3/2 K/BB. There really isn’t any room for him in the starting lineup other than at catcher, so much of his value will be tied to beating out Hedges as the starting catcher over the course of the year. Work on that defense! 2019 Projection: 31/9/27/.252/.300/.401/2 Prime Projection: 69/22/82/.278/.331/.456/4

46) Adley Rutschman C, Oregon State, 21.2 – Slashing .343/.540/.800 with 5 homers and a 8/15 K/BB in 11 games. I mentioned in my original write-up that safe college bats are bound to rise as we get closer to the draft, and that is exactly what is happening with my rankings. Why didn’t I just rank them higher in the first place, you might ask? Good question. Prime Projection: 78/26/87/.278/.366/.483/3 ETA: 2021

47) Daz Cameron DET, OF, 22.2 – Another one of my favorite underrated prospects. Cameron has plus speed, a clear path to the future starting CF job, and a batted ball distribution that makes a power outbreak almost inevitable as he matures. I’m also a sucker for bloodlines. ETA: Late 2019 Prime Projection: 88/19/69/.262/.340/.442/23

-11 – (48) Luis Garcia WASH, SS, 18.10 – A prospect evaluator I really respect, John Calvagno, voiced some concerns on Twitter in late January about the hype Garcia was getting, saying, “I’m a little lower than most on Luis Garcia (Nats) I saw him for 2 games in April pre-breakout. I liked the hands and the bat speed was evident but the linear swing and minimal load has me ? the future power and not sure the speed ages well. Likely a 2B-3B long term.” This could be a Leody Taveras, getting hype a little too early situation, which I didn’t properly factor in on my original ranking. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 88/22/82/.287/.346/.469/14

49) Jeter Downs LAD, SS, 20.8 – There is a reason one of the smartest teams in baseball stole Downs out from under Cincinnati. He might not have blazing speed or huge raw power, but he excels in the skills that make for a great modern day baseball player. He hit the ball in the air over 50% of the time, had a strikeout rate under 20%, a 9.9% walk rate, and stole 37 bases. I drool over insane tools as much as the next guy, but Downs has insane baseball skills and is being criminally underrated by the prospect community right now. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 88/23/77/.271/.355/.468/18

50) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 19.8 – Practices something called goat yoga, where goats literally walk on your back as you’re lying down. Why am I wasting my time blogging when I can come up with a snake oil scheme to scam gullible young millionaire athletes out of their money? ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/24/81/.278/.352/.477/16

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)