Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on July 8, 2024July 12, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Mid-Season 2024 Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

The Mid-Season 2024 Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings are up on the Patreon! Spreadsheet is available on the Patreon as well. Blurbs for every player. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Without further ado, here is the Mid-Season 2024 Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

1) (2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 24.1 – Witt has nearly as much upside as Elly (but not quite), and he’s a whole lot safer with a 16.4% K%. He deserves to hold down the top spot

2) (1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.6 – .247 BA with a 31.4% makes Elly very streaky right now, but keep in mind he’s still only 22 years old. This is his floor. And being within reach of a 30/80 season as his floor is just stupid

3) (6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 23.0 – He’s not slowing down at all, in fact, he’s picked it up even more, slashing .351/.431/.657 with 9 homers, 7 steals, and a 34/18 K/BB in his last 33 games. There is a real argument for him being the #1 dynasty player in the game

4) (3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 30.0 – Ohtani just turned the big 3-0 a few days ago. Happy Birthday, Big Fella. It’s the only demerit to his otherwise spotless dynasty profile

Shadow4) (4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 30.10 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. The Shadow Ohtani is now shadowing the Real Ohtani … the world is folding in on itself

5) (5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.9 – 46.5% Pull% is a career high by far (38.9% in 2023). He’s aiming for that short porch as I fully expected, and it’s resulted in a career best home run pace with 21 homers in 88 games. Oh yea, the career high 94.4 MPH EV is helping too

6) (7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.6 – Out since June 3rd with a shin injury. He was putting up the quietest 173 wRC+ in baseball history before going down with the injury

7) (13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 27.0 – Since his OPS fell to .748 on May 18th, he’s been a man possessed with a 1.179 OPS in his last 41 games. He’s even started running with 4 steals after he’s never stolen more than 1 bag in a season.

8) (10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.6 – Out since June 21st with a stress reaction in his quad. Just heal naturally. Please don’t make an appointment for a “haircut.” His .400 xwOBA was in the top 3% of the league before going down with the injury. It’s clear he can still be truly elite when healthy

9) (8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.2 – He’s risen to #1 overall on the Razzball Player Rater on the back of 32 homers and a 204 wRC+ in 90 games. His .467 xwOBA is a career high and leads all of baseball

10) (16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.9 – Elite as usual

11) (17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.10 – Showing zero signs of decline and he even hit the hardest ball of his career this year with a 116.6 MPH Max EV

12) (14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.9 – Abrams is locking in that the breakout is legit with 14 homers, 89.5 MPH EV, .364 xwOBA, and 139 wRC+, but his base stealing ability has mysteriously disappeared. He went an insane 47 for 51 on the bases last year, but that has plummeted to 14 for 24 this year. He’s slightly slower this year, but it’s hard to believe that is the cause of all of this. I’m expecting some positive regression there in the 2nd half

13) (9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.9 – Out since June 16th with a broken hand. He wasn’t maintaining his power surge from the last few years with a 6% Barrel%, which was a 7 year low, but that’s just nitpicking as he was still dominating with a 158 wRC+.

14) (11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.6 – Julio has officially taken this slow start thing too far. Struggling into the middle of July with a .632 OPS is no longer a slow start. But he’s still been massively unlucky with a .282 wOBA vs. .334 xwOBA. Everything looks pretty close to his career norms. There is definitely a big 2nd half coming here. He’s in prime buy low territory right now.

15) (4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.7 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. We’ve already seen Acuna return from a torn ACL and put up a historic season, but switching sports for a second, you can’t help but think of Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Both were explosive young athletes who kept blowing out their knees until the explosion dimmed. They were still good, but no longer in true prime form. Let’s hope Acuna can avoid that fate, and let’s also take into account baseball isn’t basketball. I’m not giving up on Acuna as an elite dynasty player at all, but it’s something to think about

16) (18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 31.0 – Returned from a hamstring strain and is slashing .321/.361/.564 with 5 homers, 1 steal, and a 15/3 K/BB in 18 games. How much he runs as he gets deeper into his 30’s is the biggest question for his dynasty value. I’m betting on him running till they rip the uniform off him, but you never know

17) (19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 22.1 – I named him the #1 dynasty pitcher in the game after just 3 MLB starts in the last update, and he hasn’t let me down since then with a 2.08 ERA and 57/8 K/BB in his next 7 starts totaling 43.1 IP. The only nitpick is that he doesn’t have a secondary with a whiff% over 30.1%. That isn’t optimal.

18) (20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.7 – I put a bet on Skubal this off-season to lead the league in strikeouts at +8000 odds ($10 to win $800). He’s currently 5th overall, just 14 behind the leader, Garrett Crochet. I can smell it! Needless to say, he’s fully backing up the 2023 breakout, and the odds won’t be nearly as good next off-season

19) (26) (29) (23) Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 27.8 – 157 wRC+ and .968 OPS are both career highs by far. He’s as consistent as they come and he’s having a career year in his age 27 season

20) (22) (28) (11) Luis Robert – CHW, OF, 26.11 – He’s volatile, steaky, and injury prone, but the man is a power/speed beast with 8 homers and 5 steals in 30 games since returning from a hamstring injury. He’s clearly working on becoming a more mature hitter with a career best by far 33.1% Chase%, but it’s come at the cost of his K% with a career worst 33.3% K%. I’ll keep betting on this kind of talent, but it’s not a smooth ride

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 400+ DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 24, 2024June 28, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/24/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/24/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24)
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24) (new Update coming next week)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Luken Baker STL, 1B, 27.3 – Baker is my favorite sneaky stash right now, and my favorite candidate to be the next Christian Walker/Max Muncy/Jesus Aguilar (okay, Aguilar might digging a little deep there, but he had some good seasons). Point being, guys in the Baker bucket can definitely breakout and become legit fantasy contributors. He smashed 2 more homers yesterday, and at 6’4”, 265 pounds, he did it looking like one of those absolute units in the World’s Strongest Man Competition during the wood chopping competition. The dude is country strong, and he used that strength to crack 19 homers in just 65 games at Triple-A. The 91.5 MPH EV backs up the power, not like there was any doubt. The cherry on top is that the contact rates and plate approach are also really good with a 19.8%/14.8% K%/BB%. He’s old for the level, but he’s hit very well in the minors since he entered pro ball at 21. The guy can rake, and with Paul Goldschmidt in his final year under contract, I think there is a path for St. Louis to give Baker a real shot in the future, maybe even at the trade deadline (although with St. Louis climbing back in the race, that might be less likely). Either way, the guy is likely freely available in the vast majority leagues, and there is legit potential for him to make a big impact if he gets the opportunity. I ranked him relatively high at #148 on the Updated Top 305 Prospects Rankings (Patreon).

Matt Shaw CHC, 3B, 22.7 – On the other end of the spectrum from a 6’4”, 265 pound, no hype behemoth, the normal human being sized, fully hyped Matt Shaw, all 5’9”, 185 pounds of him soaking wet, also went deep for 2 bombs. That’s the beauty of baseball. You can be good at any size. It reminds me of that picture of Judge and Altuve standing together. Shaw was having a solid season at Double-A all year, but he’s really come alive of late, slashing .296/.386/.561 with 7 homers, 7 steals, and a 20/15 K/BB in his last 25 games. That is all encompassing dominance in the upper minors, and it sure seems like he’s ready for his next challenge, which will probably be Triple-A. But once he gets to Triple-A, he could get the call at any moment to take over their 3B of the future job. He’s an elite prospect.

Brock Wilken MIL, 3B, 22.0 – Wilken was able to hit only 1 homer yesterday. Pretty lame if you ask me. But at least he was mean enough to absolutely obliterate it deep off the batter’s eye in centerfield. This man steps up to the plate with bad intentions with double plus power. Getting hit in the face with a pitch early in the season kinda put a dent in his season (and his face), but he’s been finding a groove of late with a .871 OPS and 3 homers in his last 16 games at Double-A. The hit tool is a definite risk with a 26.6% K% over that time, but you’re buying the power here, and he has plenty of it at 6’4”, 225 pounds.

George Wolkow CHW, OF, 18.5 – Wolkow looks down and laughs at these 6’4” midgets, standing a proper 6’7”, 239 pounds, and quite frankly, he has the most graceful, athletic swing of them all. Just watch him smoke this homer the opposite way with a mere flick of the wrist. He was one of my favorite prospects this off-season, and he’s been even more “fun” once his season got going with 5 homers, 3 steals, a .798 OPS and a 47% K% in 31 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. The K% jumped to 55.4% at Single-A. That is definitely a silly K rate, and if it makes you want to write him off, I totally get it. But personally, I’m blinded by how great of an athlete he is, and considering he’s still just 18 years old with only 44 pro games under his belt, I want to give him some time to figure it out. He’s the type who can thrive with a 30% K% rate, but obviously he has a long way to go to even get to that point.

Max Scherzer TEX, RHP, 39.10 – Scherzer made his season debut, and while he certainly didn’t look in prime form, the guy still pitched extremely well, going 5 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/0 K/BB vs. KCR. He’s the type of guy who will be throwing brushback pitches at 70 years old in the old timers game. The fastball sat only 92.9 MPH, and he only put up a 23% whiff% on the day, but I mean, he just pitched a 1 hitter (in 5 innings) at almost 40 years old coming off back surgery and a thumb injury. Legend stuff right there, and I’m apt to say he’s a target for a win now team. Hopefully his current owner won’t rake you over the coals too much based on name value, but on second thought, maybe he/she should.

Paul Skenes PIT, RHP, 22.0 – The last time I mentioned Skenes in a Rundown I said that would be the last time I mention him, because his dominance is becoming routine, but he’s just too fun not to mention right now. He threw another gem, going 7 IP with 6 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB vs. TBR. He now has a 2.14 ERA with a 33.7%/4.4% K%/BB% in 46.1 IP. Just to not completely bore you with his ascension to greatness, I will mention that he doesn’t really have a no doubt, slam dunk, elite whiff machine secondary. The splitter is the closest one he has, but a .251 xwOBA with a 34.6% whiff% is more in the good territory than truly outstanding. It’s just nitpicking, because what else is there to say other than he’s the top dynasty pitcher in the game.

Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 26.4 – An oblique strain caused Lowe to get off to a rocky start to the season, but he’s now starting to fully back up his 2023 breakout and cement himself as one of the more exciting young players in the game. He went 3 for 4 with a 97.7 MPH groundout, 94.9 MPH single,, 90.7 MPH single, and 87 MPH double. And he wasn’t doing that damage vs anyone, he was doing it off mostly Paul Skenes. He now has 5 homers, 2 steals, a 120 wRC+, a career best 28.8% whiff%, and a career best 14.9% Barrel% in 29 games. By the end of this season, we may be talking about Lowe as an easy Top 50 dynasty asset, and that might be underselling him. He could be ready to erupt.

Jarred Kelenic ATL, OF, 24.10 – Ronald Acuna who? Jarred Kelenic has been on fire since Acuna went down with the injury, going 1 for 3 with a 383 foot homer off Nestor Cortes yesterday. He’s now slashing .297/.338/.554 with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 20/4 K/BB in his last 21 games. It brings his season wRC+ up to 111. As much as I want to say this is the breakout we’ve all been waiting for, I’m struggling to do that as his plate approach and swing and miss numbers are still rough. He’s also still struggling vs. lefties, although this was his first dinger off a lefty, so maybe he’s even improving in that area too. I’m buying in that he can be a good player and solid fantasy player, but I’m not yet buying in that he’s ready to explode.

Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 22.10 – Keith might finally be arriving. I’ve been preaching patience with him because nothing in the underlying numbers looked too bad, and he’s actually been very sneakily blowing up of late, especially after yesterday’s big day. He went 4 for 5 with a homer off essentially Triple-A pitcher Jonathan Cannon. But they all count, and in his last 32 games he’s slashing .321/.357/.486 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 18.3% K%. That is the type of complete hitter we expected, and like I mentioned, everything in the underlying numbers look fine with a nearly average .310 xwOBA on the season. If there is still any type of buy window here based on the lowly .628 OPS on the season, I would be all over it.

Echedry Vargas TEX, 2B/SS, 19.3 – Vargas got more than his fair share of hype this off-season as a rookie ball breakout, and after starting off a bit slow in his first real taste of full season ball, he’s been red hot of late. He lifted off for his 5th homer in 42 games on a 4 for 6 day yesterday, and is now slashing .321/.368/.547 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 11/3 K/BB in his last 13 games. He’s showing off the power, speed and contact ability. He’s starting to really percolate and the real hype might be just around the corner. It might be time to grab him if he is still available in your league.

Shay Whitcomb HOU, SS/2B/3B, 25.8 – If you’re looking for upside that isn’t in the form of a teenager who is several years away, Whitcomb could be your man. He’s a 25 year old who is knocking on the door of the bigs at Triple-A, and he’s putting together a monster season. He went 1 for 3 yesterday with a homer and a steal, and he’s now slashing .309/.390/.571 with 17 homers, 13 steals, and a 22.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 68 games. His hit tool is still 100% a major concern even though it’s been improved this year, and it’s very likely that he is going to have to scratch and claw for playing time. Regardless, he’s a fun high risk, high reward prospect who seems pretty close to getting his shot.

Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 21.11 – Jobe looked like his usual dominant self in a rehab outing (coming off a hamstring injury) at High-A, throwing 3 perfect innings with 4 K’s. The stuff was absolutely nasty and High-A hitters had no shot at it. Once he gets back in the upper minors and finds his groove, I really don’t think it makes much sense to keep having him waste bullets in the minors. I know he doesn’t have a ton of upper minors experience, but he’s already almost 22 years old and the stuff is quite obviously MLB ready. It doesn’t seem like Detroit is any rush to call him up, so I don’t think you can expect him to be up in short order, but he should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half.

Payton Martin LAD, RHP, 20.1 – Martin had his best outing of his young season after the Dodgers supposedly held him back in extended spring training to manage his workload, going 4 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB at High-A. The fastball was only sitting low to mid 90’s on the stadium gun, but you can definitely see the athletic delivery and lively stuff. He hasn’t shown the same level of stuff and production he showed in 2023 which got a lot of people excited with a 3.99 ERA and 33/23 K/BB in 29.1 IP, but he got a late start, and maybe this will be the jumping off point for him to go on a little heater here.

Spencer Horwitz TOR, 1B/2B/OF, 26.7 – Horowitz drilled 2 homers yesterday which were also his first two homers of the year in the majors. One was a 105.6 MPH shot and the other was a 102.9 MPH shot. He was red hot at Triple-A with a 158 wRC+, and he’s carried that right over into the majors with a 197 wRC+ in 13 games. He’s never been a big home run hitter, but he did have an 89.7 MPH EV at Triple-A, so it’s not like he’s only this light slap hitter. And the plate approach is excellent with a 10%/18% K%/BB% in the majors (15.8%/17% at Triple-A). He’s played mostly 2B, and he’s actually been an above average defensive player there despite playing 1B most of his career. I always found it hard to buy into a 1B prospect with mediocre game power, but he’s definitely showing there is more to his game than that. He’s worth an add, especially with Orelvis Martinez getting busted for PED’s.

Josh Smith TEX, 3B/SS, 26.10 – I’ve been trying my best to ignore Josh Smith this year, maybe his completely non descript name wasn’t doing him any favors either, but he simply refuses to be ignored. He homered yet again yesterday and is now slashing .351/.429/.622 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 14%/9% K%/BB% in his last 22 games. He also has an 89.1 MPH EV over that time. There is nothing to nitpick there, he’s been legit. His track record prior to this year was been terrible with well below the Gallo line batting averages the last 2 seasons, and he’s hasn’t hit the ball that hard on the season with a 87.1 MPH EV. Jung is also seemingly getting ready to return within the next week or two, so it’s hard to really recommend him as a full buy. But I recently picked him up in my 12 teamer to cover for Bo Bichette (and with how shit Bichette has been, maybe take over for him), so I’m planning on riding it as long as possible.

Jake Irvin WAS, RHP, 27.4 – Talking about guys who refuse to be ignored, Irvin had another spectacular start, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 10/1 K/BB vs. COL. He put up a 39% whiff% on the day on the back of his curve (44% whiff%), fastball (50% whiff%), and changeup (67% whiff%). He now has a 3.13 ERA with a 22%/5.4% K%/BB% in 92 IP. I’m still a little skeptical because he’s never really shown this level of control before, the stuff is good but it’s not really great, and despite this game, there isn’t a huge amount of swing and miss in his game with a below average 23.2% whiff%. I would ride him if you have him, but I wouldn’t be willing to pay up big to get him.

Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.3 – Nothing like a start vs. Oakland to get you back on track, and Lopez took advantage, going 8 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 14/1 K/BB. I refused to move off him because his underlying numbers looked completely fine with a 3.25 xERA and 27.5%/5.2% K%/BB%. He was bound to right the ship, and while it was only Oakland, he absolutely wrecked them. I think he’s in for a big 2nd half.

Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 24.6 – Put another one up on the board for my boy Vientos as he obliterated his 7th homer at 109.3 MPH, travelling a cool 451 feet. He was one of my top targets this off-season, and the bat is living up to the hype with a .353 xwOBA, 13.6% Barrel%, and 21.6%/8.0% K%/BB% in 33 games. The cherry on top is that he actually hasn’t been too bad at 3B either. He’s locking in that full time job.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 18.0 – 0 for 3 with 2 K’s and is now hitting .207 with 1 homer and a 78 wRC+ in 58 games at High-A. Call me crazy, but maybe consider sending him down to Single-A, where he would still be one of the youngest players at the level.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.8 – 0 for 4 with 1 K and is now hitting .194 with 0 homers and a 79 wRC+ in 35 games at Single-A. Call me crazy, but maybe …. eh, never mind, why do I even bother

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on June 11, 2024June 15, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 305 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

May’s update was all about the pure prospects. Any MLB taint disqualified you from the list. But I swung it back in the other direction for this month’s update because I just felt like it would be more interesting to see where the new popups fit in with the old guard. I’m unpredictable like that. So keep in mind that the previous month’s rankings are not a direct comparison with this month. It might look like guys dropped, but really it’s just because players were added into the rankings who were ineligible last month. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 3005 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-JUNE TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (5/30/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis (May’s Non-Debuted Pure Prospects Rankings) (Off-Season Rankings)

1) (2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Mercury must be in retrograde or something, because I never thought I would see the day when I ranked a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball, but that day is today. Skenes jumped up to the majors and immediately overwhelmed MLB hitters with a 3.00 ERA and 35.5%/5.6% K%/BB% in 27 IP. He’s not only my top prospect in the game, he’s my top dynasty pitcher in the game, ranking 19th overall on my latest Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.4 – You know what Dominguez doesn’t have in common with Holliday and Caminero? His MLB debut was actually electric with 4 homers in 8 games, and now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery, it’s like he never left with 6 homers in 15 upper minors games. Maybe the hit tool is still a bit riskier, but he more than makes up for that with upside due to how much he loves to run. Dominguez is my #1 hitting prospect in baseball.

3) (1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.9 – Wood’s strikeout rate is better than both Holliday and Caminero’s at Triple-A. We saw Holliday’s K rate skyrocket in his MLB debut, and Wood’s plate approach is superior to Caminero’s. We’ve seen both Holliday and Caminero struggle in their MLB debuts. He runs more than both Holliday and Caminero. He hits the ball harder than both Holliday and Caminero. I can’t guarantee that Wood ends up better than Holliday and Caminero, and at his height, he most probably does have more hit tool risk, but I don’t think either can match Wood’s upside, and judging based only on 2024, his hit tool is more than holding his own vs. those guys. I’m a glutton for upside, and there might not be a prospect in baseball with more upside than Wood.

4) (NA) (2) Jackson Holliday – BAL, SS, 20.6 – If the terrible MLB debut never happened, we would all be losing our minds on what a travesty it is that Jackson Holliday and his 140 wRC+ is still at Triple-A. With all the extremely aggressive assignments throughout all levels of professional baseball, and the mostly lackluster results, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far in the other extreme. How about some middle ground. “Everything in moderation, even moderation.”

5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 20.11 – Caminero’s 106 wRC+ in 34 games at Triple-A isn’t super impressive, but he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), ripping homers (8 homers), and showing a decent plate approach (22.9%/9.2% K%/BB%). And he’s still only 20. He’s still on track to reach his righty Devers comp.

6) (NA) (11) Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B, 22.8 – I think there is a case to put Marte over Holliday and Caminero as well due to his much superior MLB debut, but let’s get a looksie on him post PED suspension before getting ahead of ourselves. Maybe he was cheating.

7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 21.10 – Lawlar started a rehab assignment in rookie ball coming off thumb surgery. Nobody has staked claim to Arizona’s SS job in his absence, and while Perdomo is on the comeback trail as well, I just don’t think he has the bat to hold the job. Lawlar should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half

8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.8 – He hasn’t blown the doors off at Double-A, but he’s proving his big 2023 pro debut was no fluke with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 21.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A.

9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.3 – There are a lot of really good prospects not putting up eye popping numbers at Double-A, but Baby Bonds isn’t one of them with a 199 wRC+ in 37 games. In OBP leagues, there is a case for him to be the #1 hitting prospect in the game with a 25.1% BB%

10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.2 – The disaster start is behind him, but this still isn’t the light the world on fire bat we hoped we would be getting

11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.10 – 1.099 OPS in his last 20 games. Looks like Basallo has figured out the upper minors, and he’s still 19 years old

12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.1 – A 138 wRC+ as a barely 20 year old at Double-A is impressive even if the numbers aren’t off the charts

13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – He was just getting back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A, but a hamstring strain landed him on the IL since May 1st

14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.9 – Insane dominance has transferred to the upper minors with a 0.77 ERA and 35%/0% K%/BB% in 11.2 IP. There is little doubt that this guy is going to be an ace if he stays healthy

15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.11 – 27.9% K% shows there is still hit tool risk, but as a 20 year old in the upper minors, that actually isn’t too bad, and he’s dominating regardless with a 161 wRC+. Tack on a plus SS glove which should give him a long leash, and this is a no doubt elite prospect

16) (NA) (13) Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 22.2 – PCA is locking in that his speed and baserunning ability are truly elite with a 30 ft/sec sprint and a perfect 7 for 7 mark on the bases, and he’s also showing much better contact rates than his first go around with a 23% K%, but he’s yet to prove he can hit the ball hard enough to truly make an impact with a 86.7 MPH EV. It sat 87.9 MPH with a 110.6 MPH MAX at Triple-A, so there is more in the tank right now, and I definitely think there is more in the tank in the future. I’m not moving off PCA

17) (7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.6 – Out since May 16th with a fractured rib. He’s on a beeline to be on the best power hitters in the game when he gets healthy again

18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – Here is what I wrote about Mayer this off-season in his Top 1,000 blurb: “Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted.” … and like Marte, he came out swinging the next season, slashing .300/.370/.486 with 6 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.2%/9.7% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A . Hopefully unlike Marte, he isn’t on PED’s

19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.6 – 27.6 K% in 51 games at High-A means we have to recalibrate his hit tool expectations a bit, but on the flip side, we can do the same about his stolen base expectations with 13 steals. And the power is unquestioned with 12 homers

20) (5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.1 – He might finally be finding his groove at Double-A with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 1.052 OPS in his last 9 games, although it still comes with a 12/2 K/BB. I’m going to keep betting on the huge talent, even if the hit tool isn’t where it needs to be right now with a 34.1% K%

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Michael Halpern

The Tuesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/28/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (Tuesday in this case) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Tuesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/28/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (coming this week)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.5 – Acuna tore his ACL and will be out for the season. He was a shell of his former self before going down with the injury. The team who owned Acuna in my 12 team league ran the league last year, dominating from start to finish in demoralizing fashion. He was the heavy favorite going into 2024, and now his team is at the bottom of the standings with little hope. I’ve gotten so many questions from dynasty owners who say they have Acuna, Julio, Carroll etc …, thought they were going to high step to a championship, and are now struggling and don’t know what to do. It reminds me of one of my tenets of Dynasty Baseball Strategy which I wrote up in my 10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By back in 2021: “Play with blinders on. When rebuilding, the teams on top can seem unbeatable and discourage you from ramping up. Don’t let fear and intimidation beat you before you even try. Focus on your own roster and trust that cracks in the armor will emerge from the top dogs.” Let this be a reminder to pound that point home in your head. Don’t let the team that looks unbeatable in the off-season discourage you from going for it. Anything can happen year to year. As for the Acuna owners, there is nothing you can do but set your sights on 2025. You probably weren’t off to a great start this year anyway. Panic selling low doesn’t make sense as he’s still just 26 years old, and I guess it’s better that it’s not the same knee. It seems plausible he can return from this injury just like he did the last one and still put up huge seasons. This is still a Top 20 dynasty asset for me, or at least close to it.

Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.3 – It was only a matter of time before the hits starting dropping for Garcia, and after going 2 for 5 yesterday, he’s now brought his BA up from .226 on May 1st to .270 on May 28th. He’s already surpassed his homer total from 2023 in less than half the games (5 homers), and he’s a perfect 13 for 13 on the basepaths. When I put a “if Ketel Marte liked to run” comp on him this off-season, this is exactly what I envisioned, and hopefully like Ketel, those homer totals will continue to rise he gets older. He just took his rightful place in the Top 100 overall dynasty assets, ranking 96th overall on the Updated May Top 415 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week.

Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.8 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Sproat is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospect targets with huge stuff, Double-A production, and showing the seeds of improved control. He has a 1.89 ERA with a 28.2%/7..0% K%/BB% in 19 IP at Double-A. This coming off his destruction of High-A (1.07 ERA with a 32.4%/15.7% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP). He had some control issues in college, and as you can see from the High-A numbers, they aren’t completely behind him, but this is the type of profile that can blow up if it does take a meaningful step forward. He throws mid 90’s heat with two legit secondaries in his changeup and slider. I drafted him in the 3rd round of my 30 team FYPD Draft this off-season, and he looks on a beeline for Top 100 status.

Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.3 – We finally have signs of life from Bichette. He cracked a 105.7 MPH, 419 foot homer off Nick Nastrini (who I’ve soured on and recently rage dropped in my 18 team league), and he now has 3 homers, 3 steals, and a .358 BA in his last 17 games. The contact/hard hit ability is still there with a 14.4% K% and 89.8 MPH EV. It still doesn’t feel like he’ll ever truly hit that peak with a low launch (7.7 degree launch) and mediocre speed (27.4 ft/sec sprint), so I wouldn’t let this heater fully pull you back in, but he desperately needed this to show us he isn’t going full Andrew Benintendi on us with a slow fade into irrelevance.

Nick Nastrini CHW, RHP, 24.3 – As I mentioned, Nastrini absolutely blew me up in my 18 team points league in his outing before this one, and I went full rage drop on him. He wasn’t likely going to be a keeper for me with our keeper rules, but I haven’t done a good rage drop in awhile, and it felt warranted here. He wasn’t as bad in this outing, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 3 ER, and a 5/4 K/BB, but he wasn’t good either. He now has a 9.92 ERA with a 15.3%/20% K%/BB% in 16.1 IP, and he’s been bad at Triple-A too with a 5.83 ERA in 29.1 IP. The stuff isn’t all that notable with a 93.7 MPH fastball and the control is below average. He’s better than he’s shown, but I’m still mostly out on Nastrini.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 26.4 – Lodolo returned quickly from the IL with a groin strain, which is great to see because he’s had lower body injuries linger before, and he looked great, going 5.1 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 94.8 MPH, the curve put up a 56% whiff%, and he induced weak contact with a 85 MPH EV against. He now has a 3.12 ERA with a 28.6%/5.6% K%/BB% in 40.1 IP. I’ve loved Lodolo for years now, and there was almost no doubt he would breakout if he stayed healthy. He ranked 139th overall on the Updated May Top 415 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and that was with him on the IL. Now that he’s back, he might be a Top 100 overall dynasty pitcher for me.

Robert Gasser MIL, LHP, 25.0 – Gasser had his most impressive outing yet in the majors, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB vs. MIL. The fastball sat 94.1 MPH, which is impressive for him, and he used a legit 5 pitch mix to notch a 28% whiff% and 84 MPH EV against. It was all encompassing dominance. He now has a 1.96 ERA with a 14.1%/1.1% K%/BB% in 23 IP, so seeing him capable of missing bats like he did yesterday was big to see. He checked in at #85 overall on the May Top 301 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and even that might be looking a bit light right now.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.4 – I feel like I’m the only person who truly kept the faith on Jazz being a nearly elite dynasty asset this off-season, ranking him 34th overall on the Top 1,000, and he’s rewarding that faith after going 2 for 4 with a double and 107.7 MPH, 416 foot bomb off Michael King for his 8th homer in 54 games. He also stole his 10th bag in this game. The plate approach is taking a step forward with career bests in both K% and BB% (24.8%/8.8% K%/BB%), he’s crushing the ball as always with a 13.5% Barrel% and 90.2 MPH EV, and he’s faster than ever with a career best 4.08 Home Plate to 1B time. It could all go away tomorrow if the injury bug strikes him again, which is why many here hesitant to believe in him this off-season, but let’s not borrow trouble. Just enjoy the booty (as in pirate’s booty, not booty, booty) if you bought low and stole him this off-season.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B/OF, 25.4 – Schneider obviously was never going to be as good as his insane 2023 MLB debut, but he’s locking in that he’s no fluke after drilling his 6th homer in 46 games. He now has a 131 wRC+ with the underlying numbers to back it up. He has a 15.6% Barrel%, 90.7 MPH EV, 22.3 degree launch, and a 26.4%/12.9% K%/BB%. The 28.7% whiff% isn’t even close to the danger zone, and he runs a bit too with 3 steals. That is a very exciting profile for OBP leagues especially. He’s legit.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.5 – Baltimore begrudgingly put Grandpa Stowers into the lineup, and lo and behold, he raked, going 3 for 4 with a 104.3 MPH double, 103.8 MPH single, and 98.9 MPH double. He drove in 4 runs. He now has a fun 38.5% Barrel% in 13 batted balls to go along with a .916 OPS and 23.5% K% in 17 PA. The 37.8% whiff% is still high and I don’t trust Baltimore at all to really give him a real shot if history is any indication, but I stand by my opinion that he can be a legit MLB slugger if given the chance. He slugged 11 homers with a 91.2 MPH EV in 36 games at Triple-A. At the least, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.3 – I feel like people are already getting prospect fatigue with Rushing just anticipating his impossible path to playing time. It’s like Precog prospect fatigue. But while we all bemoan his lack of path, he just keeps on raking at Double-A, jacking out his 7th homer in 35 games with a grand salami. He now has a 142 wRC+ with a 18.5%/13% K%/BB%. He’s DH’d almost as much as he’s caught, so worrying about playing time is legit, but the bat also looks legit. I don’t know where or when or what team he will play for, but I’m still betting on the bat and hoping the rest works itself out.

Walker Martin SFG, SS, 20.3 – The highly touted Martin finally made his pro debut on May 20th, and while it’s been a strikeout fest in rookie ball with a 62.5% K% in 5 games, he got comfortable yesterday with 2 bombs. The dude most certainly looks the part already at 6’2” and with a neck that is bigger than his head. Give him some time to shake the rust off and get comfortable in pro ball before making any determinations, because there is big talent in here befitting of the $3 million singing bonus SF handed him last year.

Blake Mitchell KCR, C, 19.4 – KC taking Mitchell 8th overall was a bit of a surprise, but he continues to prove he was worth it, going the opposite way for his 6th homer in 39 games. He now has a 144 wRC+ with 10 homers and a 32.6%/17.1% K%/BB% at Single-A, and he’s also finally showing some contact improvement of late with a 12.9% K% in his last 7 games. His value continues to rise.

Yoeilin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.9 – The DSL breakout is completely transferring stateside for Cespedes after he jacked out his 2nd homer in 12 games yesterday. He now has a 142 wRC+, which almost matches his 145 wRC+ from last year. I compared his swing to a miniature version of Vlad Guerrero Sr. in the 2024 Top 1,000 Rankings, so while he’s not a huge guy, the huge swing most certainly packs a punch. He’s not a threat on the bases with 0 steals, it will be important to watch the hit tool and plate approach at higher levels (19.6%/9.8% K%/BB%), and his size may cap the raw power a bit, so I would still have some caution when going after him, but he’s a no doubt riser right now.

Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.9 – Speaking of DSL breakouts, Quintero had another big day stateside, going 3 for 5 with 2 walks. He’s fully backing up the huge DSL numbers, slashing .310/437/.483 with 3 homers, 1 steal, and a 22.5%/15.5% K%/BB% in 17 games. He’s stolen only 1 bag and he’s starting to look pretty thick, but he’s still an excellent athlete and the power is coming in nicely. His hype is already steadily rising, and he’s a candidate to explode when he gets into full season ball.

Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.7 – The Dodgers pipeline never ends as Vargas had his first huge day stateside, going 4 for 6 with 2 doubles and a triple. He’s yet to hit a homer in 10 games, but everything else looks good with a 118 wRC+, 4 steals, and a 17%/8.5% K%/BB%. If the power starts to come, and it should for the projectable 6’4” Vargas, the hype will hit hard and fast.

Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.3 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB at Double-A. Waldrep got off to a rocky start to the season with 10 earned in his first 2 outings, but he’s yet to give up more that 2 ER or go less than 5 IP in any of his 7 outings since then. He now has a 2.92 ERA with a 22.4%/7.9% K%/BB% in 49.1 IP. Seeing the solid control is big, and while the strikeout rate isn’t as high as we would like it, the nasty stuff is still there, and we know there is more in the tank. This is his first full year of pro ball and he’s performing well in the upper minors. His value at least holds steady from the rightful hype he got this off-season.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 20, 2024May 24, 2024 by Michael Halpern

May 2024 Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Unlike the April Update, we have a legit sample to work with to make some real determinations. As usual, I will be going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 20 is free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the May 2024 Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season and April rankings are in parenthesis, in that order

1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.4 – I went all in on Elly’s insane upside this off-season, ranking him 9th overall on the Top 1,000 and writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” … And now that he’s exploded with a legit shot at 30/100, I’m not taking my foot off the pedal. He’s still a bit riskier than some of the elite talent ranked after him, but none of them can touch his upside. He’s my #1 overall dynasty player.

2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.11 – Witt’s cooled off a bit from the scorching start to the season with a .867 OPS, but the underlying numbers are still elite with a .404 xwOBA. I was so close to ranking him over Elly as the top dog because he definitely has the safer hit tool, but I didn’t play it safe with Elly this off-season, and I’m not going to start now

3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.10 – Ohtani doesn’t even need to pitch to be the most valuable player in fantasy, ranking 1st overall on the Razzball Player Rater. If he comes back healthy on the mound in 2025, he’s such an insanely good win now piece that I just can’t ding him for being older than the other elite players. He was my undisputed #1 overall dynasty player before going down with the elbow injury, and there is an argument that he should still hold that top spot

4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.4 – We’re deep enough into the season to say something ain’t right. The elite contact numbers from 2023 have completely disappeared, and the 8.9% Barrel% is a career low by far. He’s been unlucky (.322 wOBA vs. .353 xwOBA), and he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), so I do think a heater is coming, but this has gone beyond a slow start to the season. He deserves a small drop, but this is still an elite of the elite dynasty asset for me.

Shadow4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.10 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.7 – As I expected, he’s aiming for that short porch, increasing his pull percentage 6.9 percentage points to a career high 45.8% and increasing his launch 3.7 degrees to 10.4 degrees. It’s resulted in 11 homers and a .463 xwOBA (2nd best in baseball behind only Ohtani) in 48 games. The 4 steals are modest, but that actually puts him on a career high pace there too

6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.10 – Well, well, well. How the turntables … have turned. I ranked Gunnar over Carroll as the #1 overall prospect in the game in the 2023 Rankings, and that looked like a mistake after the 2023 season, but things look different this year with Gunnar jumping back over Carroll. His 94.1 MPH EV is in the top 3% of the league, and it’s led to 16 homers, which leads the league. And he’s running much more with 7 steals. I wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t the last time Carroll and Gunnar flip values, but right now, Gunnar reigns supreme.

7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.3 – 15 homers is the 2nd most in the league behind Gunnar, and his 192 wRC+ is 2nd to only Ohtani … and it still feels like barely anyone gets excited about him. It’s crazy how good he is compared to his hype

8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.0 – Unsurprisingly shook off a slow start with 10 homers and a 1.307 OPS in his last 25 games. The exit velocity king is back atop his throne with a 96.6 MPH EV that leads all of baseball

9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.7 – 185 wRC+ is tied for a career high, and his 8 steals in 48 games is on pace to shatter his recent season steal totals

10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.4 – Only 6 steals in 7 attempts is the main thing holding him back from ranking higher. His EV also hasn’t really bounced back to pre PED/wrist/shoulder levels, but Tatis is still an elite beast with a .389 xwOBA that is in the top 6% of the league.

11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.4 – Julio is a notorious slow starter and nothing looks too concerning in the underlying numbers. He’s already started to heat up with a .315 BA in his last 31 games. The homer binge has to be around the corner

12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.8 – It’s getting harder to keep the faith, but a 92 MPH EV in May tells me better days are still ahead. He’s also definitely been unlucky with a .251 wOBA vs. 305 xwOBA. We might be entering prime buy low territory right now

13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.7 – With nearly zero value in the stolen base category, Yordan needs to be air tight elite everywhere else, and he hasn’t been this year with a .759 OPS. The underlying numbers are better, but even those are in career low areas with a still very good 12.8% Barrel% and .373 xwOBA

14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.7 – Cooled off since the hot start, but Abrams is still showing major improvement with a 89.1 MPH EV, .374 xwOBA, and .310 xBA. He hasn’t locked in his near elite dynasty asset status, but he’s clearly leveling up

15) (16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 23.0 – Leveled off after the scorching start, but the hit tool is clearly much improved with a .270 BA and 21.3% whiff% (.209 BA with a 28.1% whiff% in 2023), and the power/speed combo is still very good with a 20/30 season within reach

16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.7 – Career low by far 26.4 ft/sec sprint shows there could be some physical decline here, and a .360 xwOBA is nearly a career low. It’s way too early to say he’s declining and the 146 wRC+ is near elite, but I think it’s worth mentioning

17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.7 – .302 xwOBA is basically a career low and his OPS is on a 4 year decline at .780. Like Harper, it’s worth mentioning, but he still ranks 12th overall on the Razzball Player Rater and nothing is overly concerning in the underlying numbers, so way too early to say it’s the start of a decline phase

18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.10 – Out since May 3rd with a hamstring strain. He wasn’t showing any signs of decline before going down with the injury with a .343 BA, 2 homers, and 10 steals in 33 games

19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Called up the bigs and hasn’t missed a beat with a 2.70 ERA and 46.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 10 IP. The fastball sits 99.7 MPH and he has a 38.3% whiff%. Calling Skenes a generational pitching prospect was not oversold. It might be early, but I don’t think I would trade Skenes for any other pitcher. He’s my new top dog dynasty baseball pitcher

20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.5 – Not only is he backing up the 2023 breakout, he’s actually been even better with a 1.80 ERA and 31.6%/3.8% K%/BB% in 55 IP. The velocity is up too with a 96.6 MPH fastball. He’s the best starter in baseball. Just stay healthy

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 20, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! (Patreon)

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Unlike the April Update, we have a legit sample to work with and make some real determinations. As usual, I will be going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. The Top 20-ish will be released here on the Brick Wall. First post will drop later today. Catch you then …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 400+ DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Posted on May 13, 2024May 14, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/13/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG! (4/24/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (May Update coming soon)
-MAY DYNASTY TARGETS COMING SOON
-SPREADSHEETS

Chase Jaworksy HOU, SS, 19.9 – Jaws has been one of my low key prospect sleepers since he was drafted 164th overall by Houston, and he stole the show on Mother’s Day, blasting two dingers. Doesn’t he know his mom is supposed to be the star on Mother’s Day? So selfish. He now has 3 homers, 13 steals, a 20%/14.5% K%/BB% and 136 wRC+ in 26 games at Single-A. He’s a legit great athlete with plus speed, plenty of power potential at 6’1”, 170, and an excellent plate approach. He’s extremely exciting and is silly underrated. He just checked in at #279 on the May Top 301 Prospects Rankings update that dropped on the Patreon last week, and a day like yesterday will have him continuing to rise. It’s time to grab him if he’s still out there in your league.

Brady House WAS, 3B, 20.11 – House has been so quietly destroying Double-A as a 20 year old, and that continued on the Day of Mothers, obliterating his 7th bomb in 30 games. He now has a 146 wRC+ with a 21.7%/11.6% K%/BB%. He’s finally living fully up to the hype from his draft year, slotting in at #22 on those Updated Prospect Rankings. Like a good mother, he’s turning this House into a Home, because he’s becoming that core dynasty piece that you settle down in and don’t flip. The kids are starting to grow up in Washington (Wood, House, Gore, Abrams, Garcia etc). The future is bright.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 25.2 – Speaking of the kids blossoming in Washington, Gore threw another gem yesterday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 2 ER, and a 9/3 vs. BOS. He now has a 3.38 ERA with a 29%/7.4% K%/BB% in 40 IP. The control is improved, the velocity is up, he’s inducing more weak contact, and he’s missing more bats. It’s a total across the board leveling up. Gore was my “pitching development isn’t linear” target this off-season, and this sure looks like the breakout we have been waiting for. He ranked 127th overall on the Updated Top Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Let’s stick with flame throwing lefties and talk about Wrobleski. It’s probably too late to jump on the Gore bandwagon, but there is still plenty of time to jump on the underrated Wrobleski train. He went 5 IP with 5 hits, 3 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB at Double-A, which has been the story of his season with a 4.86 ERA and 25.4%/2.9% K%/BB% in 33.1 IP. But be happy that ERA is elevated, because it just keeps his buy window wide open with a 3.13 xFIP, legitimately nasty stuff from the left side, much improved control, and a great organization. This is the type of pitcher that should be approaching elite pitching prospect status, and he really doesn’t have much hype at all. He should be owned in all league sizes.

Matt Wilkenson CLE, LHP, 21.5 – From lefty flamethrowers to lefty Tugboats, Wilkenson dominated again, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB at Single-A. He’s been insanely good on the season with a 1.02 ERA and 48.5%/6.9% K%/BB%, but he has to prove it against more advanced competition before really going all in on him, as the fastball only sits upper 80’s/low 90’s. I can’t help but be reminded so much of David Wells when watching him pitch, and there is no doubt he’s so easy to root for, but it still feels like more of a back end profile on the major league level. I like him, but I am going to continue to have some caution until I see him do this against more advanced hitters.

Jonny DeLuca TBR, OF, 25.9 – DeLuca finally made his Tampa debut in May after fracturing his hand in spring, and he’s showing why he was a named target for me this off-season. He’s off to a scorching start after going 1 for 3 with a double and walk yesterday, and now has a .930 OPS in 33 PA. The plate approach has been elite with a 9.1%/15.2% K%/BB%, he’s lifting the ball more with a 16.9 degree launch, and the speed is almost double plus with a 28.9 ft/sec spring and 2 steals. The 85.7 MPH EV is low, but if any team knows how to get the most out of low EV players, it’s the Rays (see Isaac Paredes). DeLuca is becoming the next Paredes, except with more speed. He’s now becoming a major target for me. Get him everywhere you can.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 20.4 – Isaac has officially shook off his bit of a rocky start with an absolute missile yesterday for his 6th homer in 28 games at High-A. And most importantly, the uncharacteristically poor hit tool has been much better of late with a .315 BA and 18.8%/15.6% K%/BB% in his last 16 games. He now has a 142 wRC+ at the level. He’s on a beeline for elite prospect status if he isn’t there already, and once he gets to the upper minors, it’s very possible he can rise to #1 overall fantasy prospect status in the near future.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.5 – With Toronto slowly falling out of the race at 18-22, and Addison Barger getting off to slow start, it’s only a matter of time before they start calling up their big guns, and Orelvis is the biggest gun they got right now. He smoked his 10th homer yesterday with an athletic and powerful righty swing that looks just about ready for the majors. He now has a 136 wRC+ with a 20.8%/9.4% K%/BB% in 35 games at Triple-A. Toronto has scored the 3rd least amount of runs in the game, and they desperately need a shot in the arm. Orelvis could be that shot. He’s a great stash.

Damiano Palmegiani TOR, 3B/1B, 24.3 – If Orelvis doesn’t give them that shot, Damiano will, as his bat is so sincere after cracking his 7th homer in 37 games at Triple-A. He hasn’t been destroying the level with a 97 wRC+, but his high K, high BB slugging profile is fully intact with a 91.4 MPH EV and 29.6%/12.5% K%/BB%. Considering their ages, it’s possible Toronto goes to Damiano first, but Orelvis has the much better glove and is the much better prospect in general. Regardless, Damiano is a very good prospect in his own right and is worth a stash in medium to deeper leagues.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 23.4 – While we’re on the topic of hitting stashes, Locklear should firmly be on your radar. France continues to slump with another 0-fer day, and Locklear’s footsteps keep getting louder and louder. He’s been destroying Double-A, slashing .295/.419/.500 with 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 22.6%/14.6% K%/BB% in 30 games. He’s done nothing but rip up pro ball at every stop, and while he’s not at Triple-A yet, I don’t think Seattle will make him spend much time there, if any, when they feel they are ready to make the switch. France isn’t a particularly good defensive player and he isn’t the type of bat you want at 1B. Locklear is that type of bat, and he’s coming for that 1B job of the present and the future.

Zac Veen COL, OF, 22.4 – I did all my mea culpas for ranking Veen so highly last year, but I knew I wasn’t going crazy thinking that this guy should be really good, and with a healthy hand, he’s back with a vengeance in 2024. He’s been straight unconscious, going 2 for 5 with a steal yesterday, and is now slashing .341/.434/.593 with 5 homers, 9 steals, and a 23.6%/12.3% K%/BB% in 26 games at Double-A. That’s good for a 191 wRC+. This is everything I thought he was capable of in 2023, but the hand injury clearly prevented the breakout. Today, we spell redemption, H-A-L-P … let’s not talk about Parker Meadows which now swaps with Veen as my worst call 😉

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.11 – Talking about former favorites of mine, Morel is starting to lock in a true leveling up, going 2 for 4 with a 397 foot homer off Bailey Falter for his 9th in 40 games. Most importantly, he didn’t strike out once, and his 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% is looking oh so sweet combined with his hard hit ability (91.3 MPH EV), lift (14 degree launch), and athleticism (4 steals). The reasonable 29.8% whiff% mostly backs up the strikeout rate gains. His .384 xwOBA is in the top 8% of the league, and Chicago looks committed to getting his bat in the lineup despite continued poor defense. The surface stats haven’t completely caught up with the underlying numbers quite yet, so there could still be a buy window here if you are looking to buy offense that won’t cost you an arm and a leg.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – In my last Monday Morning Rundown, I implored you to not sell low on Cruz, and he’s exploded since then, crushing a 112.7 MPH bomb off Kyle Hendricks yesterday. He’s now slashing .344/385/.623 with 4 homers and a 14/4 K/BB in 18 games since that Rundown. The dude is a beast with a 94.2 MPH EV and a declining K rate (21.5% over those last 18 games). Any buy low window has been shut.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – I called Jazz a buy low in that same Rundown, and he’s also hit very well since then, going 2 for 3 with a double, triple, and 0/1 K/BB yesterday. He now has 3 homers, 4 steals, a 21% K% and .836 OPS in 19 games since that writeup. The dude is a gimme for 20/20, and 30/30 is so easily within reach too if he can just stay healthy. So far, he’s healthy. Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker were my two other buy low calls from that Rundown, and while they haven’t broken out yet, I still implore you to hold on to both, especially Carroll. My faith is Walker is maybe cracking a bit more after he got sent down, but long term, I still think he ends up really really good.

Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 – Baez is quickly becoming one of the most exciting Single-A breakouts, going 2 for 6 with a homer, and now has 4 homers, 5 steals, a 10.1% K%, and 131 wRC+ in 31 games. He hits the ball hard with a vicious righty swing and the K rate is in the elite range. He’s not a perfect prospect as he’s not a burner and the 5.8% BB% is low, but the hit/power combo is looking legit right now.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 26.3 – We finally have a pulse. Manoah went 7 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. MIN. The fastball sat 93.8 MPH and all 4 of his pitches missed bats for a 33% whiff% overall. You obviously still can’t fully trust him, but just seeing him capable of putting together a good start is great to see after his complete implosion and poor 1st outing. Tread carefully here, but this is as close to the old Manoah we’ve seen since it all went wrong.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10/Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – Let’s check in on San Diego’s experiment of being stupid aggressive with their assignments. Salas has a 67 wRC+ with 0 homers in 28 games at High-A. De Vries has a 65 wRC+ with a 30.3% K% in 7 games at Single-A and hasn’t played since May 1st. I hated the old way of being so conservative to the point of stunting prospects development and robbing baseball fans of seeing the best young players in the game at the highest levels, but San Diego has taken it to cartoonish levels, and it’s starting to come back to bite them.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 6, 2024May 10, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 301 May 2024 Dynasty Baseball Pure Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

These prospects rankings are for the pure, uncut prospects only. If you were tainted with MLB at bats/IP, even 1, you’ve lost your prospect virginity, and are ineligible for this list. The goal is to make a list with fresh names, and allow everyone to be evaluated on an even playing field of 0 MLB experience. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 301 May 2024 Dynasty Baseball Pure Prospects Rankings:

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1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.8 – When you eliminate every player who has already made their MLB debut, Wood rises to the #1 pure prospect in the game. And he did it on the back of much improved contact rates at Triple-A with a 20.7% K%. He combines that with elite power (93.8 MPH EV), speed (8 steals), and OBP (15.6% BB%). He’s going to be scary good.

2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Remember all that hand wringing about his fastball shape? Yea, neither do I as he’s been wrecking Triple-A with a 0.99 ERA and 42.9%/7.6% K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. The fastball averages 100 MPH and the secondaries (slider, splitter, change) rack up whiffs. This is what a true ace should do against minor league hitters, and he’s doing it. Let’s be honest, he shouldn’t be on this list at all. Call him up, Pitt.

3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.6 – 3 homers, 7 steals, 23.2%/17.2% K%/BB% and 132 wRC+ in 24 games at Double-A. After the low walk rates in 2023, he’s clearly working on being more patient

4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.2 – Baby Bonds is now officially an elite prospect with his destruction of Double-A, slashing .281/.500/.625 with 4 homers, 9 steals, a 28.3%/29.3% K%/BB% and 203 wRC+ in 20 games

5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.0 – Hit tool issues aren’t in the rear view mirror yet with a 32.4% K% in 16 games at Double-A, but it only needs to sit around 30% in the majors for him to be an absolute menace, and I’m betting on him being able to do that

6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – It took him a minute to find a rhythm, but he’s been back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A. Skenes might have separated himself a bit, but both of them are going to be aces. Unfortunately he did land on the IL with a hamstring strain during his latest start

7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.5 – Destined to be one of the top power hitters in baseball with 11 homers in 33 games at Triple-A, and the cherry on top is that he runs a bit too with 3 steals

8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.2 – Limited to just 1 AB with a hamstring injury, but I wouldn’t let that change his outlook at all. His rise to uber prospect status has been delayed, but it’s still coming

9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.1 – Are we concerned yet? Crews followed up his poor Double-A debut in 2023 with a terrible spring, and now another poor showing at Double-A. He has a 34.3%/7.1% K%/BB% in 16 games. The 106 wRC+ isn’t terrible, but this isn’t the no doubt superstar college bat that we thought we were getting. That much is becoming pretty clear.

10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.0 – 33.3% K% and .225 BA is showing the hit tool risk, but considering he’s not quite 20 yet, and he has a 105 wRC+, I’m not overly concerned. He’s also clearly been working on keeping the ball off the ground with a 34.6% GB%, so some growing pains are normal

11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.9 – Isn’t destroying the upper minors like he did the lower minors, but he’s still showing off the prodigious power with 5 homers in 24 games at Double-A as a 19 year old

12) (35) Colt Emerson – SEA, SS, 18.8 – Backing up his strong pro debut with a 131 wRC+ in 12 games at Single-A

13) (50) Lazaro Montes – SEA, OF, 19.6 – Going full Yordan Alvarez glow up with a 14.4%/13.6% K%/BB% and 6 homers in 24 games at Single-A. He’s a truly elite prospect

14) (30) Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 22.9 – 1.77 ERA with a 24/6 K/BB in 20.1 IP in the upper minors. Fastball sat 93.7 MPH in his first start at Tripe-A, which isn’t overpowering, but maybe that is better off for his long term health considering 88.1 IP is his career high. I feel comfortable with my #2 starter evaluation of him from this off-season.

15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.10 – Hit tool issues aren’t completely behind him with a 28%/5% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A, but he’s only 20, and he’s obliterating the level with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 178 wRC+. Tack on a plus glove which locks him in as Tampa’s SS of the future, and you have a nearly elite fantasy prospect.

16) (59) Jacob Melton – HOU, OF, 23.8 – 20.2% K% is huge to see, because we know he has the power/speed combo with 4 homers and 6 steals in 23 games at Double-A. He’s a legit elite athlete. Melton continues to be very underrated.

17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.1 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024

18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Back to his silly dominance with a 41.8%/7.6% K%/BB% in 19.1 IP at High-A. When Skenes/Jobe/Horton graduate, we are looking at a contender for the top pitching prospect in the game

19) (68) Tink Hence – STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence was a buy low, bounce back target of mine, and he’s bouncing back with a 2.10 ERA and 32.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP at Double-A. His ace ascension is back on

20) (195) Adam Mazur – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – Mazur was one of my top targets this off-season, and he’s showing why with a 2.39 ERA and 29.3%/4% K%/BB% in 26.1 IP at AA. I called him the discount Christian Scott, and he remains the discount Christian Scott. I’m all in

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 22, 2024April 22, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

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Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
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-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
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-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 15, 2024April 19, 2024 by Michael Halpern

April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep on the Patreon. Top 19 are free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. A spreadsheet is also available. Here is the April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season rankings are in parenthesis

1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.3 – I’m not ready to unseat Acuna from the top spot on April 15th. You can pick apart the underlying numbers, but with a player like Acuna, doing that a few weeks into the season is silly. Maybe the knee is bothering him, but he has 7 steals, so it can’t be bothering him that much. We’ll re-asses next month if he’s still struggling, but for now, he remains the top dog.

2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.10 – I ranked Witt 2nd overall on the Top 1,000 and closed out his blurb by writing, “There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024.” … I was way off, he’s actually been much better than that with a 1.086 OPS and all of the underlying numbers to match, namely a 97.6 MPH EV. If anyone was going to take the top spot from Acuna, it would be Witt, but I’m not there yet.

3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.3 – With a normal off-season, Tatis is back to his elite self with a .398 xwOBA, and his contact rates have been better than ever with a 14.3% K%. Maybe he got fully healthy coming off all of the surgeries, or maybe he’s back on the juice, but regardless, he’s back (I’m just half joking, I’m betting that he is just fully healthy)

4) (5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – It seems Ohtani has officially been absolved of any wrongdoing in the gambling scandal, and whether there is more to this story or not, Ohtani seems safe. The elbow injury also hasn’t impacted his hitting at all with a 1.048 OPS in 18 games.

5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.7 – I’ve been seeing a lot of sell low panic with Carroll, but with an elite player like Carroll, I would refuse to sell low under any circumstances. I would rather go down with the ship.

6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.3 – I saw this slow start coming from a mile away, starting Julio’s Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride.” The guy is quite clearly a slow starter. He will get hot eventually, like he has the past two seasons.

7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.6 – Soto is in the midst of that career year (1.009 OPS) that will land him that 1 Billi contract and put some respect back on Scott Boras’ name. 95.2 MPH EV and 13% K% are both at career best levels too

8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.2 – The quiet killer is back at it with a .460 xwOBA that is 10th best in the league. It’s kinda amazing how great Tucker is and how nobody really gives a crap

9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – I coined myself the Autobahn of Dynasty Baseball Schools, and I lived up to that billing ranking Elly 9th overall this off-season. He’s currently #6 overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I was too low. Sure he’ll strikeout out about 30% of the time, but the other 70% of the time he will do superhuman shit

10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.9 – .525 xwOBA leads the league. In leagues that devalue steals, he has an argument to be #1

Shadow10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 31.11 – Only Judge could have a 94.2 MPH EV and it be the 2nd lowest mark of his career

12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Mookie is having a late career power surge like it’s the steroid era all over again. 6 homers in 18 games puts him on pace to break his career high for the 3rd year in a row

13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – Launch is up to 15.2 degrees, whiff% is down to 23.9%, and he’s running more with 4 steals. The only thing he hasn’t improved that he needed to improve is a .596 OPS vs. lefties. But improving in 3 of the 4 areas he needed to show improvement in is good enough for me to move him into near elite dynasty asset territory

14) (16) Michael Harris – ATL, OF, 23.1 – He’s not going full explosion yet, but he’s hitting the ball harder than ever with a 91.8 MPH EV, 114.4 MPH Max EV and 53.5% Hard Hit%. All are career highs. 4.2 degree launch needs to rise to truly explode, but even as is, he’s near elite.

15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams is going full power explosion with a 91.7 MPH EV and 3 homers in 12 games. It’s too early to say the power explosion is 100% legit, but even a small leveling up would go a long way. There are not many guys I would trade Abrams for at this point, and if he comes back down to earth, we are still talking about a really good player

16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 22.11 – Tony Low Launch matured like 10 years in a single off-season. He’s hitting the ball harder with a 91.1 MPH EV and the plate approach is insanely improved with a 13.6%/15.2% K%/BB%. He’s also still running a ton with 5 steals. He ranks 13th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I named him a target this off-season, and I’m definitely buying in. This was an elite prospect who is leveling up in year 2

17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper had a back issue pop up in spring and he’s struggled in both spring and to start the year. He’s also been unlucky though (.287 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA) and he’s still crushing the ball with with a 91.1 MPH EV. You gotta stay patient with vets like Harper

18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.6 – .692 OPS and the underlying numbers are even worse than that with a .258 xwOBA, but like Harper, you can’t panic with vets like this at this point in the season

19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.9 – 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. Turner has yet to lose even a half step of speed. The decline ain’t coming this year

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)