Posted on by Michael Halpern

MiLB.TV Prospect Scouting from the Couch: Opening Day

MiLB.TV is like the first two days of March Madness, except it’s on every day, and every game looks like your dad’s home videos from the 80’s. I was flipping around like crazy trying to catch as many high profile at-bats as I could, along with extended stretches from pitchers of interest. Whenever I have something of value to pass along, or something to add to the conversation, I will do a quick write-up the morning after. Here is the first MiLB.TV Prospect Scouting from the Couch: Opening Day:

Max Fried ATL, LHP –  The hype was in overdrive this off-season for Fried, with talk of three 70 grade pitches and ace upside. That might all be well and true, but he certainly didn’t show it in this start before leaving with back tightness in the 2nd inning. He was sitting around 89-92 MPH with his fastball all night, and had very little control or command over it. To be fair, the ump was squeezing him a bit. The curveball is MLB ready right now, breaking off one nasty curve after another that hitters had no shot on. He used his changeup often as well, which is more solid than spectacular right now. If he can stay healthy and have the fastball tick up a few MPH as the year goes on, the hype will surely continue to roll, but there is legitimate control/command and injury risk.

Harrison Bader STL, OF – There was no way I was missing Bader lead off the season for Triple-A Memphis, and he didn’t disappoint by crushing a homer on the 2nd pitch. I don’t know what the pitch was or where he hit it out, because the camera man decided a tight shot of mostly Bader’s ass was the right move to start the game. It reminded me of the brilliant work of Howie Halpern from my childhood, when he forgot he was supposed to be video taping his children, and focused just on his feet. Either way, it was obvious he crushed the pitch with his wrecking ball of a swing, and I found out it was a homer when he started jogging half way to first base.

Josh Hader MIL, LHP – Back to pitching on the dark side of the moon in Colorado Springs, Hader battled through 5 scoreless innings, giving up 1 hit, 5 walks, and striking out 6. His stuff is so unhittable it looked like the very best opposing hitters could do was foul off as many pitches as possible and hope for a walk eventually. He was mostly fastball/slider all night, and is going to need to work on a third pitch if he wants to reach his ace potential. He could probably be a dominant reliever in the Big Leagues right now.

Jacob Faria TB, RHP – Faria will throw that nasty change-up for strikes in any count, but try not to laugh when he flings up some dinky curveball. Even he shook his head after a few particularly lame ducks. Until he figures that out, it will be more of the same of what we saw last night, which was 9 K’s and 2 homers allowed in 4.1 IP.

Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B – There is not a more exciting at-bat in the minors than Bellinger. Every single swing is an epic hack. Combine that with athleticism and blinding bat speed, and it is a thing of beauty when he makes contact. He crushed two doubles last night. I’m still worried that better pitching with a specific game plan could give him trouble, but I’m really rooting against that. Baseball will just be more fun if Bellinger has success and kids start emulating him.

If at any point in the season you are interested in my thoughts on a player, please let me know in the comments section or on Twitter, and I will try to make it a point to catch a few of their games.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2017 MLB Rookie Watch: Week 1

I just can’t let these guys go quite yet. This season, I’m planning on keeping track of how the 2017 rookies’ skills are translating against MLB pitching. It will also give me an opportunity to gloat a little bit on my hits, and beat myself up on my misses. Here is the 2017 MLB Rookie Watch: Week 1:

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – Many of the mainstream prospect writers have been doubting Benintendi’s power all off-season, calling it moderate and topping him out at 20. It is the same reason he fell to #7 in the MLB Draft, and the same reason he wasn’t in anybody’s 2016 top 10 overall prospects except mine. But Benintendi is out to prove the doubters wrong early, absolutely crushing a Gerrit Cole 97 MPH fastball over the right field fence. Just watch how fast the ball jumps off his bat, and you quickly realize judging his power based on his size is silly.

Ronald Torreyes NYY, SS – Benintendi is a barrel-chested beast compared to Torreyes, who stands 5’8’’, 151 pounds, but it didn’t stop him from running into a homer of his own. This picture of Aaron Judge congratulating him at home plate is an absolute classic, and truly a reminder to not let anybody tell you that you can’t do something. Of course, in reality, Judge is probably at more of a disadvantage in baseball than Torreyes, as I’m pretty sure baseball is the only sport to adjust the rules based on how tall you are.

Aaron Judge NYY, OF – Speaking of Judge, he has looked very comfortable at the plate in the early going, and has been making good hard contact. There were a few pitches he missed by just a hair that had Paul O’Neill cooing in the booth. I’m expecting good things in the near future.

Dansby Swanson ATL, SS – Calmly laced an opposite field single vs. Noah Syndergaard. It was Jeter-like. There is nothing that truly stands out about Swanson’s offensive profile, but it sure seems like he is going to be very productive. Or maybe he will hit .250 and just look good doing it.

Joey Gallo TEX, 3B – Not technically a rookie, but still kinda rookie-ish, Gallo showed off his no joke 80 grade power by placing a Carlos Carrasco offering into the last rows of the upper deck. If you want to see bat speed, launch angle, and exit velocity, just watch that swing over and over again.

Manuel Margot SD, OF – Showing off his skills early as well, collecting 3 hits in 8 at-bats and swiping his first bag. I question how high the batting average is going to be in his first MLB season, but I have no questions about the plus speed.

Jesus Aguilar MIL, 1B – Took his first start away from Eric Thames and capitalized with a 1 for 2 day and an RBI. He got only two at-bats, and it looks like it could be awhile before getting starts vs. righties, but he is worth a stream every time Milwaukee faces a lefty.

JaCoby Jones DET, OF – Doesn’t get much better than a homer and steal to drive the nail home on that starting centerfield job. I’m still concerned there isn’t enough power or speed to overcome a low average, but he has plenty of upside to prove me wrong.

Mitch Haniger SEA, OF – 4 strikeouts in his first 9 plate attempts. It goes without saying that everything is a miniscule sample size, but thought it was worth mentioning considering his Spring Training stats were a driving force in his increasing draft price as Opening Day approached. I took a shot on Haniger very late in a couple leagues, and surely plan on holding for now.

Jacob Barnes MIL, RHP – One of my favorite relief pitcher sleepers this year, Barnes got off to a good start by pitching one clean inning with a strikeout. He was among the league leaders in whiff rate in his 26.2 IP last year, while also putting up a pitching of 2.70/1.13/26. He has prototypical closer’s stuff with mid 90’s heat and a slider that is pushing 90 MPH. Watch for Barnes to rise in Milwaukee’s pen as the year goes on.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

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Razzball Prospect Podcast: Grey Albright and MLB Draft Prospects

Grey Albright joined us on the Razzball Prospect Podcast this week, and we had an awesome time running down some of the hot names making news. It was like the old days when Howard Stern actually had comedians sit in on Robin’s news (only, probably nothing like that). We then shifted focus to hit some of the names atop this year’s MLB draft class. I’m not going to ramp up coverage of draft prospects for around another month, but here is a quick write-up of a few of my favorites who we discussed on the podcast:

Hunter Greene HS, RHP – I’ve said it on the podcast on two different occasions, and this comparison is definitely a little insane, but whenever I watch Hunter Greene pitch, Satchel Paige comes to mind. The talent jumps off the screen that much. I’m not one for taking high school pitchers high in fantasy drafts, but Greene might be the exception.

Jeren Kendall Vandy, OF – The Corey Ray of the 2017 Draft, Kendall has almost matched his homer total from last season in less than half the games, all while maintaining his strikeout rate and double plus speed. If there is anybody I would take over Greene, it would be Kendall.

Pavin Smith Virginia, 1B – This draft class is heavy with college and high school pitching, but I always advocate the very best college bats should jump to the top of your Dynasty draft ranking, and this year is no different. Smith has struck out a ridiculously low 3 times in 27 games this year, all while doubling his homerun pace from last season. He raked the second he stepped on campus, and Virginia is a pitcher’s park too.

Jake Burger Missouri St., CI – One of the top pure power hitters in the class, Burger is slashing .379/.456/.737 with 9 homers and a 12/14 K/BB in 24 games. It is more raw power than bat speed, and the Missouri Valley Conference isn’t exactly a powerhouse, but the outsized production can’t be ignored.

Adam Haseley Virginia, OF – Haseley is the breakout of the group, slashing .406/.504/.723, with 8 homers, 7 steals, and a 10/19 K/BB in 27 games. If he can even come close to maintaining this production as conference play heats up, he will continue to rise on mainstream draft lists.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Grey Albright and MLB Draft Prospects

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Thursday Afternoon Monday Morning Minor League Prospect Rundown

In honor of one of my favorite comedians, Bill Burr, I decided to name this new weekly segment the Thursday Afternoon Monday Morning Minor League Prospect Rundown. It will be about half the size as my usual Monday Morning Rundown, but twice the fun (probably not). Here is the Thursday Afternoon Monday Morning Minor League Prospect Rundown:

Aaron Judge NYY, OF – It looked the Yanks were going to revert to their old ways for a second there, but in a moment of clarity, they finally named Judge their starting right fielder. He surely deserved it after slashing .345/.406/.569 in Spring, and more importantly, striking out only 20.3% of the time. I ranked him 23rd overall on my Top 200, and 1st on my New York Yankees Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings.

Rookie Davis CIN, RHP – Like Billy Beane in Moneyball, or Andrew Friedman in The Extra 2%, Brian Cashman struck gold when he brilliantly discovered a new market inefficiency, Domestic Violence. He stole Aroldis Chapman from Cincinnati under the cover of darkness, flipped him for one of the most highly touted prospects in baseball, and then re-signed him to a long-term deal in the off-season. You see kids, having morals just doesn’t pay. All Cincy is left with is a back end starter, but I’m sure their fans will still show up and buy tickets to support their morally superior franchise anyway.

Yandy Diaz CLE, 3B – When I didn’t list Diaz as one of my favorite 2017 Rookie/Prospect Sleepers in yesterday’s post, one of my Twitter followers, Barry Baker, sent me along this message and picture. Not gonna lie, I’m kinda rethinking it now. He also smacked his 3rd Spring homer yesterday, which continued his dominant Spring. Consider this me running alongside the Diaz bangwagon, trying to find an opening to hop on.

Tyler Glasnow PIT, RHP – After putting up a 1.87 ERA in 20 starts last year at Triple-A, Glasnow really doesn’t have much more to prove down there, and it seems like Pittsburgh is leaning towards letting him figure out his inconsistent control on the MLB level. Nothing is official, and Trevor Williams is still in the mix, but if Glasnow locks down the job, I would look to pick him up in re-draft leagues of all sizes. His upside is unmatched, and there will always be safer options waiting to be picked up on the waiver wire. I always shoot for the moon on early season pick-ups.

Luis Severino NYY, RHP – Won the 4th starter job, but I really didn’t see anything much different from him this Spring than I did last year. He is obviously worth a pick up based on raw talent alone, but I’m personally staying away until he proves it, especially in the AL East.

Daniel Norris DET, LHP – Going through a “dead arm” period, and while it is easy to dismiss, things seem to keep popping up with him.

Dylan Unsworth SEA, RHP – Once upon a time, Doug Fister was an upper 80’s throwing, control master Seattle prospect who got zero respect until he came up to the Majors and had nothing but success right from the get go. Unsworth is following in that path. He has a career MiLB walk rate of 1.2 BB/9, and with a 7.7 K/9, it’s not like he can’t miss bats either. Unsworth is an excellent deep league sleeper.

Jacob May CHW, OF/JaCoby Jones DET, INF/OF – Allow me to introduce your by default centerfielders for the rebuilding Chicago White Sox and transitioning Detroit Tigers. May has already been named the starter and Jones is probably not far behind. At the least, Jones will fill in while JD Martinez is on the DL. I put my full trust in both of these guys to absolutely tank your batting average.

Albert Almora Jr. CHC, OF – Heavily overshadowed by just about every single one of Chicago’s young stars, both Majors and Minors, Almora is looking to change that this year, and has started by completely destroying Spring Training pitching. He finished the Spring by hitting .339 with 4 homers and 2 steals in 62 at-bats, and should get the majority of playing time in centerfield.

Steven Matz NYM, LHP – Shut down for the next 3 weeks and was given a platelet plasma rich injection. The MRI looked great though. And yes, every time someone from my Post-Tommy John Surgery Death Zone so much as gets an itch on their elbow, I will be there to tell you about it 😉

Washington Closer Update: Much like how most things run in Washington, days of gridlock and consternation has lead to a worst of all worlds compromise. Neither the progressives (Koda Glover), nor conservatives (Shawn Kelley) got their way, and now we are all left holding the bag with Blake Treinen.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2017 Rookie/Prospect Sleepers for Fantasy Baseball Re-Draft Leagues

These players might not be the hot shot names who everyone is reaching for in fantasy baseball drafts, but they are the guys you pick-up mid-season and hope they get hot for a month while your starter is out with a sprained something (ankle, wrist, elbow ligament, etc …). Here are the 2017 Rookie/Prospect Sleepers for Fantasy Baseball Re-Draft Leagues:

Hunter Dozier KC, CI/OF – There is a pretty decent chance that Dozier is already better than Jorge Soler. Dozier certainly outhit Soler in Spring Training, with a 1.300 OPS in 22 at-bats vs. Soler’s .540 OPS in 49 at-bats. But if you want to ignore Spring stats, which is probably smart, Soler also failed to win an everyday job with his first club in Chicago, and that was with Kyle Schwarber out for the year with a knee injury and Jason Heyward out for the year with Fuck You money. I’m saying this to highlight that even beyond the obvious path to playing time, like injuries (Lorenzo Cain is already out with a “tight side,” whatever that means) and trades (Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Moose are all on expiring contracts), there is path to playing time just on performance alone. And if Dozier does get that playing time, don’t be surprised if he goes on a Ryon Healy-like run, although you should expect solid power with an average that won’t kill you.

Jacob Faria TB, RHP – The poor man’s Jose De Leon, Faria might be leading the charge for underappreciated change-up masters. Traditional scouts seem to devalue the change-up while pumping up the curveball, but I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard about guys with nasty curveballs in the minors which suddenly disappear in the Majors (cough, Phil Hughes, cough). The sneaky pitchers who can change speeds and keep you guessing are always my favorites, and you don’t even have to compromise on size with Faria, as he stands a sturdy 6’4’’, 200 pounds. Strikeouts and homers will likely be his calling card early in his career, and that career could start after the first couple Rays starters go down.

Sam Travis BOS, 1B – Everybody is talking about the limited power upside with Travis, but he was already on his way to turning that around last season at Triple-A before tearing his ACL, hitting 6 homers in 47 games. This after hitting only 9 homers in 131 games in 2015. Along with the homer uptick, there was an uptick in strikeouts as well, so you can tell this was a conscious effort to hit the ball over the fence more, which he was relatively successful at in the early going. He has also maintained that power surge in Spring Training, jacking 3 homers in 44 at-bats. Travis is looking like that prototypical plus hit tool prospect who might be on the verge of taking off using an altered swing path and power hitting mentality. The only thing Red Sox fans need to worry about is that he boosts his value enough for Dombrowski to ship him off for a reliever rental.

Jesse Winker CIN, OF – Winker should be working on what Travis seems to be in the process of doing, which to be blunt, is hitting more homeruns. And Winker comes with an even more impressive plate approach and hit tool than Travis had. If any of Cincinnati’s shaky outfielders go down with an injury or fail to perform, Winker will be the next man up, and I expect for him to start hitting for more power in Cincinnati’s homer happy ballpark, and with MLB’s homer happy baseballs.

Tyler Jay MIN, Closer – I’m actually pumped about Jay’s permanent move to the bullpen for fantasy, because solid mid-rotation starters (which is what Jay’s upside was starting to look like) just don’t make much of an impact on winning fantasy leagues. But electric fastball/slider closer’s do. Have you seen what Minnesota’s so called back of the bullpen looks like? It looks exactly like Jay being the closer in T minus 3 months.

 Jesus Aguilar MIL, 1B – Milwaukee is not paying Eric Thames the type of money that says he can’t be benched. In fact, they are already trying him in the OF to increase his versatility. The last thing you want to hear about your fantasy player is that the team is trying to increase his versatility. They don’t bench guys anymore or demote guys to the minors, they “increase their versatility” now. Aguilar impressed the team enough that he made the opening day roster, and while he might not steal all of Thames at-bats right out of the gate, he is the leading candidate to be that waiver claim, Yangervis Solarte-like Spring Training breakout guy. Or maybe he gets cut by May. Either way, he will cost you nothing to acquire, while Thames is a favorite sleeper who many people are targeting.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

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6 Random Thoughts as Opening Day Nears

Tip of the hat to Mike Axisa of RiverAveBlues.com who has been writing a Thoughts column for years. He is one of my favorite baseball writers and his Thoughts columns are always great. On that note, here are 6 random thoughts as Opening Day nears:

1) Don’t be afraid to jump on the players who get off to hot starts on the waiver wire. I find that every year the top breakouts are scooped within the first few weeks of the season. Don’t listen to all the experts mindlessly yelling at you to be patient with the guys you drafted. Be an animal early and often on the wire.

2) I know Joe Maddon and the Cubs are zany, but I just realized they might be taking their cues from George Costanza. After Jose Albertos utterly dominated in his first start of the season, wowing the scouts, Chicago quickly shut him down for the entire year. Sorry Theo, but Costanza already invented the “leaving on a high note” move. I’ve still been drafting him everywhere, because I love the upside, or maybe it’s just because I love Larry David style mind games.

3) Johnny Cueto and Evan Longoria are 31 … not 41. I find these guys being discounted in Dynasty as if they are Adrian Beltre, who incidentally, everyone has been trying to put a fork in for several years too. Owning young breakout candidates and prospects is a lot of fun, but you know what else is fun … winning now. And you can grab fun breakout guys later in the draft who are valued properly, not valued like they already broke out.

4) If you don’t have Netflix, it is worth buying this month just to see Dave Chappelle’s new stand-up special, The Age of Spin: Dave Chappelle Live at the Hollywood Palladium. There is nothing more I can possibly say that would do it any justice at all. Jim Norton and Mike Birbiglia also had hysterical recently released Netflix specials.

5) I’ve been ending up with either Greg Bird or Tommy Joseph in every draft, but never both. One always goes way too early, and the other goes way too late. In Ralph’s Friends & Family RCL League, I got Bird super late, while Joseph went in the middle rounds. In my hometown Dynasty, there was a bidding war over Bird which escalated to $22, while I was able to snag Joseph for $5.50. I should mention 80% of that league are Yankees fans.

6) I was probably far too excited to finally receive the spoils from my hard-fought hometown Dynasty League victory (pictured below). All of Saturday night, I wore the Championship Belt on my shoulder like a goddamn WWE Superstar out drinking with my league mates. At one point, this smoking hot bartender came up to me with the biggest smile on her face and asked me how I won the belt. I proudly told her, “I won my fantasy baseball league last year.” I’ve never seen a smile wipe off someone’s face faster as she said, “Oh, I thought you won a boxing tournament or something.” The male bartender was still super interested though. Fantasy Baseball: Repelling Women and Attracting Dudes for Over 30 Years.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

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2017 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Spring Training, Take Two

Spring Training stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but if a player transformed his body, or improved his swing, or impressed coaches with a renewed mindset and work ethic, it could be a sign of legitimate improvement. Here is the 2017 Fantasy Baseball Minor League Prospect Rundown: Spring Training, Take Two:

Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF – If you are concerned about Benintendi’s .179 batting average and 36% K% in his 33 MLB at-bats against lefties, maybe this rocket shot he crushed last night that cleared the fence in .2 seconds will help ease those fears. This guy is going to absolutely wear out Pesky Pole. Actually, the Red Sox are already preparing for the assault, reinforcing Pesky Pole with 40 feet of new steel, among other repairs.

Steven Matz NYM, LHP – Well, that was quick. Shortly after listing Matz 1st on my Post-Tommy John Surgery Death Zone Watch List, he was scratched from his next scheduled start due to “irritation” in his left elbow. He won’t have an MRI, but don’t worry, the trusty Mets PR department and front office assures that there is nothing structurally wrong. “There is nothing structurally wrong” sounds like the new “dreaded vote of confidence” mangers get right before being fired.

A.J. Reed HOU, 1B – The work Reed put in this off-season on conditioning and bat speed has clearly paid off, as not only has he raked in Spring, but Houston coaches have been raving about him. This is how you like to see young players respond to adversity, because it won’t be the last time they have to overcome obstacles, whether it be due to injury or the constant game of adjustments that is MLB hitting.

Kyle Lewis SEA, OF – I’m no doctor, but this video certainly looks like an encouraging sign that Lewis’ knee rehab is going well. Feel free to draft him with increasing confidence in prospect and Dynasty drafts.

Corey Ray MIL, OF – Ray also returned to game action this week after tearing his meniscus in October. While we are on the topic of injured 2016 college bats …

Nick Senzel CIN, 3B – Doubled in his first game back after taking a pitch to his wrist in live batting practice a couple weeks ago. There is nothing worse than a wrist injury for a hitter, so hopefully this will be the last we hear of it.

Jesus Aguilar MIL, 1B – Spring Training stats don’t matter, unless you are a 26-year-old bad bodied first baseman who basically has to hit like Babe Ruth in order for somebody to give you a shot. And that is exactly what Aguilar is doing this Spring, hitting .462 with 5 homers in 52 at-bats. He has been completely outplaying the Korean sensation, Eric Thames, and is making Milwaukee rethink their opening day roster. If you are looking for an Adam Duvall like breakout in the next couple years, keep your eye on Aguilar.

Jose Berrios MIN, RHP – Minnesota claims Berrios won’t make the MLB team because the WBC prevented him from being properly stretched out, but I have a sneaking suspicion it might also have something to do with his 8.02 ERA in 14 starts last year. I’ve jumped so far off the Berrios bandwagon that I actually had a Coors pitcher (Gray) and an AL East pitcher (Bundy) ranked ahead of him when I Re-Ranked the Graduates from My 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings back in early January (I would probably put Turner #1 now).

Raul Mondesi Jr. KC, SS/2B – It’s odd that people seem to completely ignore the obvious step forward Mondesi took last year in the upper levels of the minors, OPS’ing .779 at Double-A and .863 at Triple-A in 172 combined at-bats, while they overly focus on the inevitable struggles he had in the Majors. He hit well in Winter Ball, has been raking in Spring, and even if he doesn’t break camp with the team, I wouldn’t expect him to be held down for long. This is a potential elite speed/power combo who is not being valued like that in Dynasty drafts.

Franklin Barreto OAK, SS/2B – Billy Beane can’t wait until he can finally show something from that awful Josh Donaldson trade, and with Jed Lowrie and Chad Pinder the only thing in the way of that, you can bet Barreto will be called up sooner rather than later.

Cody Reed CIN, LHP/Amir Garrett CIN, LHP – I think I could have made a run at a rotation spot in Cincinnati’s dumpster fire of a starting rotation. Their ballpark is a launching pad and while I think both of these guys can be solid mid-rotation starters long term, they look like nothing but landmines for this season.

Alen Hanson PIT, UTIL – MLB’s cockamamie team control rules will finally help the player and not the team, as Hanson is out of options, and if he doesn’t make the big league club, there would be no shortage of teams who would jump at the chance to claim him. Plus, the United States doesn’t look all too keen about letting Jung-ho Kang back into the country, so there could be more playing time available than originally thought.

Jose Quintana HOU, LHP – Seriously Houston, just pull the trigger already. You have a million talented outfielders who deserve a shot and a highly volatile starting rotation.

Derek Fisher HOU, OF – Speaking of Houston outfielders, Fisher hit well this Spring, but has really impressed on the base paths, jacking 10 bases in 34 at-bats. It can be hard to know how much to trust minor league steal numbers, but it sure does seem like this man loves to run.

Austin Meadows PIT, OF – Meadows crushed a ball out of the ballpark against a lefty on Saturday, which continued his torrid Spring. I don’t care that he doesn’t have a spot yet (Polanco did just get scratched with shoulder soreness), I would be going out of my way to grab him in any Dynasty drafts where he is still available.

Koda Glover WASH, RHP – Dusty Baker knows who the closer is, but nanny nanny poo poo, he’s not telling.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

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Razzball Prospect Podcast: Top Dynasty Targets for 2017 Fantasy Baseball

On some nights, the command is a little off and the breaking pitches aren’t breaking quite right, but like a true ace, you persevere on pure grit and put your team in position to win. That’s kinda like how this week’s podcast went down. Ralph Lifshitz and I start by bemoaning the Vogelbach demotion, then move onto our favorite MLB targets in Dynasty Leagues, before doing what we do best, and talking our favorite prospect targets.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Top Dynasty Targets for 2017 Fantasy Baseball

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

High Risk Starting Pitchers in the Post-Tommy John Surgery Death Zone

Injury prediction and prevention is most likely the next “Moneyball”/“The Extra 2%”/“That 1 Weird Trick to Help Boost Your Testosterone” (hint, it’s HGH) that you don’t really hear teams talk about very much. In fact, there is not a single thing that teams obstruct, mislead, and straight up lie about more than injuries (A.J. Preller says hi). One thing has trickled out, though, and that is conventional wisdom around the league holds that Tommy John surgery has a shelf life of about 7-8 years. This is by no means a fact, and every case is obviously different, but if a pitcher who falls in that range has also been having arm trouble recently, it seems to my civilian mind that is a recipe for disaster. Here are the pitchers who are at high risk for a 2nd Tommy John surgery and/or performance decline:

Steven Matz NYM, TJS date: May 2010 – I drafted Matz as my 4th starter in my latest 12 team redraft league. I say this to highlight the fact I don’t hate these pitchers and I’m not completely avoiding them, especially in redrafts. The risk becomes greater in dynasty and keeper formats for obvious reasons. Matz has long been labeled injury prone, and the concerns have only heightened since reaching the Majors. He underwent arthroscopic surgery this off-season to remove a large bone spur from his pitching elbow, which hopefully helps with the shoulder impingement that was bothering him all year and required a platelet plasma injection of its own. This May will be the 7-year anniversary of his first Tommy John surgery. Draft at your own risk.

Stephen Strasburg WASH, August 2010 – Strasburg was basically shut down in mid-August with a small tear in the pronator tendon, which caused his forearm to tighten every time he threw his slider. In an effort to remain healthy this year he will try to limit his slider usage, and if Spring Training is any indication, it looks like he might pitch exclusively from the stretch. I appreciate the willingness to try new things and recognize the elbow tendon grim reaper is looming, but even if the adjustments minimize the risk of injury, it increases the risk of performance decline. Strasburg’s performance wasn’t the problem when he was on the mound. There are more unknowns here than I am comfortable with when drafting an ace.

Danny Salazar CLE, August 2010 – Salazar’s elbow started bothering him around last year’s all-star break, eventually sidelining him in August after saying, “there’s something in my elbow and I don’t know what it is.” He was later diagnosed with the catchall “elbow inflammation.” His strikeout upside is worth hoping his elbow tendon can continue hanging on by what I’m sure is a thread, and he’s looked great so far this Spring, but don’t tell me you weren’t warned.

Jacob deGrom NYM, October 2010 – deGrom had season ending surgery in late September to repair ulnar nerve damage in his right arm. He had been experiencing forearm soreness for about a month before the surgery and his velocity was down all season from where he sat in 2015. It seems the surgery has worked so far, as he has dominated in Spring, so while he could be worth the risk in redrafts, I would be highly skeptical of him in Dynasty leagues.

Carlos Carrasco CLE, September 2011 – The problems have already started for Carrasco this season, as he experienced swelling in his elbow after his March 13th start. The MRI came back clean and he should return to action later this week, but considering the problems the first 4 guys on this list experienced in their 6th post-TJS year, it isn’t a great sign.

Rich Hill LAD, June 2011 – I don’t think I’ve ever seen a potential ace’s draft stock discounted more due to injury risk than with Hill this year. I’ve been ending up with him everywhere, but am preparing for under 150 IP.

Adam Wainwright STL, March 2011 – The torn ACL that kept him on the shelf for 5 months in 2015 might actually help preserve Wainwright’s elbow longer than expected. The bigger question is how effective he will be, as he took a major step back in 2016, and almost surely looks to be in the back nine of his career. I’m expecting an ERA under 4 this year, but a return to ace status would be a surprise.

Jordan Zimmermann DET, August 2009 – If I had been doing this list for the last two years, Zimmerman would have made the list both times, and both times you would have been keen to stay away from him. His velocity has now dropped two years in a row, and he pitched in only 105.1 innings last season due to injuries, although unrelated to his arm. He’s been getting pounded this Spring too, and even if you don’t buy into the extra injury risk, the performance decline looks to be in full swing.

John Lackey CHC, November 2011 – Lackey’s 2011 Tommy John surgery seemed to give him a late career jolt, as he just finished up his 4th excellent and healthy post-surgery year at the ripe old age of 38. He did hit the 15-day DL in August with shoulder tightness last year, but I’m not sure there is any increased injury/performance risk here that any other 38-year-old pitcher doesn’t already inherently have.

Francisco Liriano TOR, November 2006 – Liriano’s been a high injury/performance risk since going under the knife over a decade ago, and that has never been more true than it is for this season. Considering the very low draft price, though, it might be a risk worth taking.

Wei-Yin Chen MIA, 2006 – Chen’s velocity was down last year and he pitched only 123.1 innings due to a left elbow sprain that held him out for two months. He has already surpassed the 7-8 year timeline, but there are signs his luck is about to run out, if it hasn’t already.

Edinson Volquez MIA, August 2009/Jaime Garcia ATL, February 2008 – The list of starting pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery before Volquez and Garcia and are still pitching effectively (without needing a 2nd TJS) is very short. Other than Liriano and Chen, the entire list literally consists of Anibal Sanchez and Scott Feldman. And I’m using the word “effectively” very loosely here. Both Volquez and Garcia would have made last year’s imaginary list, and while both stayed healthy, their numbers fell off a cliff.

Dice-K June 2011 – The clock might finally be ready to hit midnight on Dice-K’s long run of stateside dominance 😉

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Razzball Prospect Podcast: Top Rookies/Prospects to Make an Impact in 2017

My old computer came back to life as mysteriously as it died, so everything is back to normal. Except my bank account is $120 lighter because apparently, you can’t return Microsoft Office. Thanks Geek Squad for telling me my computer was toast and that I needed a new one. Just goes to show you can never trust the “experts.” Hopefully Ralph and Halp sharing our thoughts on the possible 2017 impact rookies will help you form your own decisions on when to pounce.

Click here for the Razzball Prospect Podcast: Top Rookies/Prospects to Make an Impact in 2017

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)