Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on June 11, 2024June 15, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 305 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

May’s update was all about the pure prospects. Any MLB taint disqualified you from the list. But I swung it back in the other direction for this month’s update because I just felt like it would be more interesting to see where the new popups fit in with the old guard. I’m unpredictable like that. So keep in mind that the previous month’s rankings are not a direct comparison with this month. It might look like guys dropped, but really it’s just because players were added into the rankings who were ineligible last month. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. Here is the Top 3005 June 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-JUNE TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (5/30/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Previous Rankings are in parenthesis (May’s Non-Debuted Pure Prospects Rankings) (Off-Season Rankings)

1) (2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Mercury must be in retrograde or something, because I never thought I would see the day when I ranked a pitcher as the top prospect in baseball, but that day is today. Skenes jumped up to the majors and immediately overwhelmed MLB hitters with a 3.00 ERA and 35.5%/5.6% K%/BB% in 27 IP. He’s not only my top prospect in the game, he’s my top dynasty pitcher in the game, ranking 19th overall on my latest Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

2) (NA) (8) Jasson Dominguez – NYY, OF, 21.4 – You know what Dominguez doesn’t have in common with Holliday and Caminero? His MLB debut was actually electric with 4 homers in 8 games, and now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery, it’s like he never left with 6 homers in 15 upper minors games. Maybe the hit tool is still a bit riskier, but he more than makes up for that with upside due to how much he loves to run. Dominguez is my #1 hitting prospect in baseball.

3) (1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.9 – Wood’s strikeout rate is better than both Holliday and Caminero’s at Triple-A. We saw Holliday’s K rate skyrocket in his MLB debut, and Wood’s plate approach is superior to Caminero’s. We’ve seen both Holliday and Caminero struggle in their MLB debuts. He runs more than both Holliday and Caminero. He hits the ball harder than both Holliday and Caminero. I can’t guarantee that Wood ends up better than Holliday and Caminero, and at his height, he most probably does have more hit tool risk, but I don’t think either can match Wood’s upside, and judging based only on 2024, his hit tool is more than holding his own vs. those guys. I’m a glutton for upside, and there might not be a prospect in baseball with more upside than Wood.

4) (NA) (2) Jackson Holliday – BAL, SS, 20.6 – If the terrible MLB debut never happened, we would all be losing our minds on what a travesty it is that Jackson Holliday and his 140 wRC+ is still at Triple-A. With all the extremely aggressive assignments throughout all levels of professional baseball, and the mostly lackluster results, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far in the other extreme. How about some middle ground. “Everything in moderation, even moderation.”

5) (NA) (4) Junior Caminero – TBR, 3B/SS, 20.11 – Caminero’s 106 wRC+ in 34 games at Triple-A isn’t super impressive, but he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), ripping homers (8 homers), and showing a decent plate approach (22.9%/9.2% K%/BB%). And he’s still only 20. He’s still on track to reach his righty Devers comp.

6) (NA) (11) Noelvi Marte – CIN, 3B, 22.8 – I think there is a case to put Marte over Holliday and Caminero as well due to his much superior MLB debut, but let’s get a looksie on him post PED suspension before getting ahead of ourselves. Maybe he was cheating.

7) (NA) (6) Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 21.10 – Lawlar started a rehab assignment in rookie ball coming off thumb surgery. Nobody has staked claim to Arizona’s SS job in his absence, and while Perdomo is on the comeback trail as well, I just don’t think he has the bat to hold the job. Lawlar should get his shot at some point in the 2nd half

8) (3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.8 – He hasn’t blown the doors off at Double-A, but he’s proving his big 2023 pro debut was no fluke with 6 homers, 15 steals, and a 21.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A.

9) (4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.3 – There are a lot of really good prospects not putting up eye popping numbers at Double-A, but Baby Bonds isn’t one of them with a 199 wRC+ in 37 games. In OBP leagues, there is a case for him to be the #1 hitting prospect in the game with a 25.1% BB%

10) (9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.2 – The disaster start is behind him, but this still isn’t the light the world on fire bat we hoped we would be getting

11) (11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.10 – 1.099 OPS in his last 20 games. Looks like Basallo has figured out the upper minors, and he’s still 19 years old

12) (10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.1 – A 138 wRC+ as a barely 20 year old at Double-A is impressive even if the numbers aren’t off the charts

13) (6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – He was just getting back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A, but a hamstring strain landed him on the IL since May 1st

14) (18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.9 – Insane dominance has transferred to the upper minors with a 0.77 ERA and 35%/0% K%/BB% in 11.2 IP. There is little doubt that this guy is going to be an ace if he stays healthy

15) (15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.11 – 27.9% K% shows there is still hit tool risk, but as a 20 year old in the upper minors, that actually isn’t too bad, and he’s dominating regardless with a 161 wRC+. Tack on a plus SS glove which should give him a long leash, and this is a no doubt elite prospect

16) (NA) (13) Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 22.2 – PCA is locking in that his speed and baserunning ability are truly elite with a 30 ft/sec sprint and a perfect 7 for 7 mark on the bases, and he’s also showing much better contact rates than his first go around with a 23% K%, but he’s yet to prove he can hit the ball hard enough to truly make an impact with a 86.7 MPH EV. It sat 87.9 MPH with a 110.6 MPH MAX at Triple-A, so there is more in the tank right now, and I definitely think there is more in the tank in the future. I’m not moving off PCA

17) (7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.6 – Out since May 16th with a fractured rib. He’s on a beeline to be on the best power hitters in the game when he gets healthy again

18) (24) (48) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 21.8 – Here is what I wrote about Mayer this off-season in his Top 1,000 blurb: “Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted.” … and like Marte, he came out swinging the next season, slashing .300/.370/.486 with 6 homers, 12 steals, and a 20.2%/9.7% K%/BB% in 54 games at Double-A . Hopefully unlike Marte, he isn’t on PED’s

19) (32) (41) Xavier Isaac – TBR, 1B, 20.6 – 27.6 K% in 51 games at High-A means we have to recalibrate his hit tool expectations a bit, but on the flip side, we can do the same about his stolen base expectations with 13 steals. And the power is unquestioned with 12 homers

20) (5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.1 – He might finally be finding his groove at Double-A with 4 homers, 2 steals, and a 1.052 OPS in his last 9 games, although it still comes with a 12/2 K/BB. I’m going to keep betting on the huge talent, even if the hit tool isn’t where it needs to be right now with a 34.1% K%

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 28, 2024 by Michael Halpern

The Tuesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/28/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays (Tuesday in this case) throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Tuesday Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/28/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAY MAILBAG! (coming this week)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.5 – Acuna tore his ACL and will be out for the season. He was a shell of his former self before going down with the injury. The team who owned Acuna in my 12 team league ran the league last year, dominating from start to finish in demoralizing fashion. He was the heavy favorite going into 2024, and now his team is at the bottom of the standings with little hope. I’ve gotten so many questions from dynasty owners who say they have Acuna, Julio, Carroll etc …, thought they were going to high step to a championship, and are now struggling and don’t know what to do. It reminds me of one of my tenets of Dynasty Baseball Strategy which I wrote up in my 10 (More) Dynasty Baseball Rules to Live By back in 2021: “Play with blinders on. When rebuilding, the teams on top can seem unbeatable and discourage you from ramping up. Don’t let fear and intimidation beat you before you even try. Focus on your own roster and trust that cracks in the armor will emerge from the top dogs.” Let this be a reminder to pound that point home in your head. Don’t let the team that looks unbeatable in the off-season discourage you from going for it. Anything can happen year to year. As for the Acuna owners, there is nothing you can do but set your sights on 2025. You probably weren’t off to a great start this year anyway. Panic selling low doesn’t make sense as he’s still just 26 years old, and I guess it’s better that it’s not the same knee. It seems plausible he can return from this injury just like he did the last one and still put up huge seasons. This is still a Top 20 dynasty asset for me, or at least close to it.

Maikel Garcia KCR, 3B, 24.3 – It was only a matter of time before the hits starting dropping for Garcia, and after going 2 for 5 yesterday, he’s now brought his BA up from .226 on May 1st to .270 on May 28th. He’s already surpassed his homer total from 2023 in less than half the games (5 homers), and he’s a perfect 13 for 13 on the basepaths. When I put a “if Ketel Marte liked to run” comp on him this off-season, this is exactly what I envisioned, and hopefully like Ketel, those homer totals will continue to rise he gets older. He just took his rightful place in the Top 100 overall dynasty assets, ranking 96th overall on the Updated May Top 415 Dynasty Baseball Rankings that dropped on the Patreon last week.

Brandon Sproat NYM, RHP, 23.8 – 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 5/2 K/BB at Double-A. Sproat is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospect targets with huge stuff, Double-A production, and showing the seeds of improved control. He has a 1.89 ERA with a 28.2%/7..0% K%/BB% in 19 IP at Double-A. This coming off his destruction of High-A (1.07 ERA with a 32.4%/15.7% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP). He had some control issues in college, and as you can see from the High-A numbers, they aren’t completely behind him, but this is the type of profile that can blow up if it does take a meaningful step forward. He throws mid 90’s heat with two legit secondaries in his changeup and slider. I drafted him in the 3rd round of my 30 team FYPD Draft this off-season, and he looks on a beeline for Top 100 status.

Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.3 – We finally have signs of life from Bichette. He cracked a 105.7 MPH, 419 foot homer off Nick Nastrini (who I’ve soured on and recently rage dropped in my 18 team league), and he now has 3 homers, 3 steals, and a .358 BA in his last 17 games. The contact/hard hit ability is still there with a 14.4% K% and 89.8 MPH EV. It still doesn’t feel like he’ll ever truly hit that peak with a low launch (7.7 degree launch) and mediocre speed (27.4 ft/sec sprint), so I wouldn’t let this heater fully pull you back in, but he desperately needed this to show us he isn’t going full Andrew Benintendi on us with a slow fade into irrelevance.

Nick Nastrini CHW, RHP, 24.3 – As I mentioned, Nastrini absolutely blew me up in my 18 team points league in his outing before this one, and I went full rage drop on him. He wasn’t likely going to be a keeper for me with our keeper rules, but I haven’t done a good rage drop in awhile, and it felt warranted here. He wasn’t as bad in this outing, going 5 IP with 3 hits, 3 ER, and a 5/4 K/BB, but he wasn’t good either. He now has a 9.92 ERA with a 15.3%/20% K%/BB% in 16.1 IP, and he’s been bad at Triple-A too with a 5.83 ERA in 29.1 IP. The stuff isn’t all that notable with a 93.7 MPH fastball and the control is below average. He’s better than he’s shown, but I’m still mostly out on Nastrini.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 26.4 – Lodolo returned quickly from the IL with a groin strain, which is great to see because he’s had lower body injuries linger before, and he looked great, going 5.1 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 94.8 MPH, the curve put up a 56% whiff%, and he induced weak contact with a 85 MPH EV against. He now has a 3.12 ERA with a 28.6%/5.6% K%/BB% in 40.1 IP. I’ve loved Lodolo for years now, and there was almost no doubt he would breakout if he stayed healthy. He ranked 139th overall on the Updated May Top 415 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and that was with him on the IL. Now that he’s back, he might be a Top 100 overall dynasty pitcher for me.

Robert Gasser MIL, LHP, 25.0 – Gasser had his most impressive outing yet in the majors, going 6 IP with 3 hits, 0 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB vs. MIL. The fastball sat 94.1 MPH, which is impressive for him, and he used a legit 5 pitch mix to notch a 28% whiff% and 84 MPH EV against. It was all encompassing dominance. He now has a 1.96 ERA with a 14.1%/1.1% K%/BB% in 23 IP, so seeing him capable of missing bats like he did yesterday was big to see. He checked in at #85 overall on the May Top 301 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), and even that might be looking a bit light right now.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.4 – I feel like I’m the only person who truly kept the faith on Jazz being a nearly elite dynasty asset this off-season, ranking him 34th overall on the Top 1,000, and he’s rewarding that faith after going 2 for 4 with a double and 107.7 MPH, 416 foot bomb off Michael King for his 8th homer in 54 games. He also stole his 10th bag in this game. The plate approach is taking a step forward with career bests in both K% and BB% (24.8%/8.8% K%/BB%), he’s crushing the ball as always with a 13.5% Barrel% and 90.2 MPH EV, and he’s faster than ever with a career best 4.08 Home Plate to 1B time. It could all go away tomorrow if the injury bug strikes him again, which is why many here hesitant to believe in him this off-season, but let’s not borrow trouble. Just enjoy the booty (as in pirate’s booty, not booty, booty) if you bought low and stole him this off-season.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B/OF, 25.4 – Schneider obviously was never going to be as good as his insane 2023 MLB debut, but he’s locking in that he’s no fluke after drilling his 6th homer in 46 games. He now has a 131 wRC+ with the underlying numbers to back it up. He has a 15.6% Barrel%, 90.7 MPH EV, 22.3 degree launch, and a 26.4%/12.9% K%/BB%. The 28.7% whiff% isn’t even close to the danger zone, and he runs a bit too with 3 steals. That is a very exciting profile for OBP leagues especially. He’s legit.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.5 – Baltimore begrudgingly put Grandpa Stowers into the lineup, and lo and behold, he raked, going 3 for 4 with a 104.3 MPH double, 103.8 MPH single, and 98.9 MPH double. He drove in 4 runs. He now has a fun 38.5% Barrel% in 13 batted balls to go along with a .916 OPS and 23.5% K% in 17 PA. The 37.8% whiff% is still high and I don’t trust Baltimore at all to really give him a real shot if history is any indication, but I stand by my opinion that he can be a legit MLB slugger if given the chance. He slugged 11 homers with a 91.2 MPH EV in 36 games at Triple-A. At the least, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 23.3 – I feel like people are already getting prospect fatigue with Rushing just anticipating his impossible path to playing time. It’s like Precog prospect fatigue. But while we all bemoan his lack of path, he just keeps on raking at Double-A, jacking out his 7th homer in 35 games with a grand salami. He now has a 142 wRC+ with a 18.5%/13% K%/BB%. He’s DH’d almost as much as he’s caught, so worrying about playing time is legit, but the bat also looks legit. I don’t know where or when or what team he will play for, but I’m still betting on the bat and hoping the rest works itself out.

Walker Martin SFG, SS, 20.3 – The highly touted Martin finally made his pro debut on May 20th, and while it’s been a strikeout fest in rookie ball with a 62.5% K% in 5 games, he got comfortable yesterday with 2 bombs. The dude most certainly looks the part already at 6’2” and with a neck that is bigger than his head. Give him some time to shake the rust off and get comfortable in pro ball before making any determinations, because there is big talent in here befitting of the $3 million singing bonus SF handed him last year.

Blake Mitchell KCR, C, 19.4 – KC taking Mitchell 8th overall was a bit of a surprise, but he continues to prove he was worth it, going the opposite way for his 6th homer in 39 games. He now has a 144 wRC+ with 10 homers and a 32.6%/17.1% K%/BB% at Single-A, and he’s also finally showing some contact improvement of late with a 12.9% K% in his last 7 games. His value continues to rise.

Yoeilin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.9 – The DSL breakout is completely transferring stateside for Cespedes after he jacked out his 2nd homer in 12 games yesterday. He now has a 142 wRC+, which almost matches his 145 wRC+ from last year. I compared his swing to a miniature version of Vlad Guerrero Sr. in the 2024 Top 1,000 Rankings, so while he’s not a huge guy, the huge swing most certainly packs a punch. He’s not a threat on the bases with 0 steals, it will be important to watch the hit tool and plate approach at higher levels (19.6%/9.8% K%/BB%), and his size may cap the raw power a bit, so I would still have some caution when going after him, but he’s a no doubt riser right now.

Eduardo Quintero LAD, OF, 18.9 – Speaking of DSL breakouts, Quintero had another big day stateside, going 3 for 5 with 2 walks. He’s fully backing up the huge DSL numbers, slashing .310/437/.483 with 3 homers, 1 steal, and a 22.5%/15.5% K%/BB% in 17 games. He’s stolen only 1 bag and he’s starting to look pretty thick, but he’s still an excellent athlete and the power is coming in nicely. His hype is already steadily rising, and he’s a candidate to explode when he gets into full season ball.

Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 18.7 – The Dodgers pipeline never ends as Vargas had his first huge day stateside, going 4 for 6 with 2 doubles and a triple. He’s yet to hit a homer in 10 games, but everything else looks good with a 118 wRC+, 4 steals, and a 17%/8.5% K%/BB%. If the power starts to come, and it should for the projectable 6’4” Vargas, the hype will hit hard and fast.

Hurston Waldrep ATL, RHP, 22.3 – 5 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB at Double-A. Waldrep got off to a rocky start to the season with 10 earned in his first 2 outings, but he’s yet to give up more that 2 ER or go less than 5 IP in any of his 7 outings since then. He now has a 2.92 ERA with a 22.4%/7.9% K%/BB% in 49.1 IP. Seeing the solid control is big, and while the strikeout rate isn’t as high as we would like it, the nasty stuff is still there, and we know there is more in the tank. This is his first full year of pro ball and he’s performing well in the upper minors. His value at least holds steady from the rightful hype he got this off-season.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 20, 2024May 24, 2024 by Michael Halpern

May 2024 Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Unlike the April Update, we have a legit sample to work with to make some real determinations. As usual, I will be going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. Top 20 is free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the May 2024 Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (5/24/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season and April rankings are in parenthesis, in that order

1) (9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.4 – I went all in on Elly’s insane upside this off-season, ranking him 9th overall on the Top 1,000 and writing, “I always say, ‘if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,’ and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in.” … And now that he’s exploded with a legit shot at 30/100, I’m not taking my foot off the pedal. He’s still a bit riskier than some of the elite talent ranked after him, but none of them can touch his upside. He’s my #1 overall dynasty player.

2) (2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.11 – Witt’s cooled off a bit from the scorching start to the season with a .867 OPS, but the underlying numbers are still elite with a .404 xwOBA. I was so close to ranking him over Elly as the top dog because he definitely has the safer hit tool, but I didn’t play it safe with Elly this off-season, and I’m not going to start now

3) (4) (5) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.10 – Ohtani doesn’t even need to pitch to be the most valuable player in fantasy, ranking 1st overall on the Razzball Player Rater. If he comes back healthy on the mound in 2025, he’s such an insanely good win now piece that I just can’t ding him for being older than the other elite players. He was my undisputed #1 overall dynasty player before going down with the elbow injury, and there is an argument that he should still hold that top spot

4) (1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.4 – We’re deep enough into the season to say something ain’t right. The elite contact numbers from 2023 have completely disappeared, and the 8.9% Barrel% is a career low by far. He’s been unlucky (.322 wOBA vs. .353 xwOBA), and he’s still crushing the ball (92.4 MPH EV), so I do think a heater is coming, but this has gone beyond a slow start to the season. He deserves a small drop, but this is still an elite of the elite dynasty asset for me.

Shadow4) (10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.10 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

5) (7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.7 – As I expected, he’s aiming for that short porch, increasing his pull percentage 6.9 percentage points to a career high 45.8% and increasing his launch 3.7 degrees to 10.4 degrees. It’s resulted in 11 homers and a .463 xwOBA (2nd best in baseball behind only Ohtani) in 48 games. The 4 steals are modest, but that actually puts him on a career high pace there too

6) (13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.10 – Well, well, well. How the turntables … have turned. I ranked Gunnar over Carroll as the #1 overall prospect in the game in the 2023 Rankings, and that looked like a mistake after the 2023 season, but things look different this year with Gunnar jumping back over Carroll. His 94.1 MPH EV is in the top 3% of the league, and it’s led to 16 homers, which leads the league. And he’s running much more with 7 steals. I wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t the last time Carroll and Gunnar flip values, but right now, Gunnar reigns supreme.

7) (8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.3 – 15 homers is the 2nd most in the league behind Gunnar, and his 192 wRC+ is 2nd to only Ohtani … and it still feels like barely anyone gets excited about him. It’s crazy how good he is compared to his hype

8) (11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 32.0 – Unsurprisingly shook off a slow start with 10 homers and a 1.307 OPS in his last 25 games. The exit velocity king is back atop his throne with a 96.6 MPH EV that leads all of baseball

9) (12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.7 – 185 wRC+ is tied for a career high, and his 8 steals in 48 games is on pace to shatter his recent season steal totals

10) (3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.4 – Only 6 steals in 7 attempts is the main thing holding him back from ranking higher. His EV also hasn’t really bounced back to pre PED/wrist/shoulder levels, but Tatis is still an elite beast with a .389 xwOBA that is in the top 6% of the league.

11) (6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.4 – Julio is a notorious slow starter and nothing looks too concerning in the underlying numbers. He’s already started to heat up with a .315 BA in his last 31 games. The homer binge has to be around the corner

12) (5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.8 – It’s getting harder to keep the faith, but a 92 MPH EV in May tells me better days are still ahead. He’s also definitely been unlucky with a .251 wOBA vs. 305 xwOBA. We might be entering prime buy low territory right now

13) (10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.7 – With nearly zero value in the stolen base category, Yordan needs to be air tight elite everywhere else, and he hasn’t been this year with a .759 OPS. The underlying numbers are better, but even those are in career low areas with a still very good 12.8% Barrel% and .373 xwOBA

14) (15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.7 – Cooled off since the hot start, but Abrams is still showing major improvement with a 89.1 MPH EV, .374 xwOBA, and .310 xBA. He hasn’t locked in his near elite dynasty asset status, but he’s clearly leveling up

15) (16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 23.0 – Leveled off after the scorching start, but the hit tool is clearly much improved with a .270 BA and 21.3% whiff% (.209 BA with a 28.1% whiff% in 2023), and the power/speed combo is still very good with a 20/30 season within reach

16) (17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.7 – Career low by far 26.4 ft/sec sprint shows there could be some physical decline here, and a .360 xwOBA is nearly a career low. It’s way too early to say he’s declining and the 146 wRC+ is near elite, but I think it’s worth mentioning

17) (18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.7 – .302 xwOBA is basically a career low and his OPS is on a 4 year decline at .780. Like Harper, it’s worth mentioning, but he still ranks 12th overall on the Razzball Player Rater and nothing is overly concerning in the underlying numbers, so way too early to say it’s the start of a decline phase

18) (19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.10 – Out since May 3rd with a hamstring strain. He wasn’t showing any signs of decline before going down with the injury with a .343 BA, 2 homers, and 10 steals in 33 games

19) (78) (106) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Called up the bigs and hasn’t missed a beat with a 2.70 ERA and 46.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 10 IP. The fastball sits 99.7 MPH and he has a 38.3% whiff%. Calling Skenes a generational pitching prospect was not oversold. It might be early, but I don’t think I would trade Skenes for any other pitcher. He’s my new top dog dynasty baseball pitcher

20) (42) (59) Tarik Skubal – DET, LHP, 27.5 – Not only is he backing up the 2023 breakout, he’s actually been even better with a 1.80 ERA and 31.6%/3.8% K%/BB% in 55 IP. The velocity is up too with a 96.6 MPH fastball. He’s the best starter in baseball. Just stay healthy

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 20, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! (Patreon)

Welcome to May Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! Unlike the April Update, we have a legit sample to work with and make some real determinations. As usual, I will be going over 400 deep with blurbs for every player. The Top 20-ish will be released here on the Brick Wall. First post will drop later today. Catch you then …

-Halp

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-MAY TOP 400+ DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Posted on May 13, 2024May 14, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/13/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/13/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS (5/10/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG! (4/24/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (May Update coming soon)
-MAY DYNASTY TARGETS COMING SOON
-SPREADSHEETS

Chase Jaworksy HOU, SS, 19.9 – Jaws has been one of my low key prospect sleepers since he was drafted 164th overall by Houston, and he stole the show on Mother’s Day, blasting two dingers. Doesn’t he know his mom is supposed to be the star on Mother’s Day? So selfish. He now has 3 homers, 13 steals, a 20%/14.5% K%/BB% and 136 wRC+ in 26 games at Single-A. He’s a legit great athlete with plus speed, plenty of power potential at 6’1”, 170, and an excellent plate approach. He’s extremely exciting and is silly underrated. He just checked in at #279 on the May Top 301 Prospects Rankings update that dropped on the Patreon last week, and a day like yesterday will have him continuing to rise. It’s time to grab him if he’s still out there in your league.

Brady House WAS, 3B, 20.11 – House has been so quietly destroying Double-A as a 20 year old, and that continued on the Day of Mothers, obliterating his 7th bomb in 30 games. He now has a 146 wRC+ with a 21.7%/11.6% K%/BB%. He’s finally living fully up to the hype from his draft year, slotting in at #22 on those Updated Prospect Rankings. Like a good mother, he’s turning this House into a Home, because he’s becoming that core dynasty piece that you settle down in and don’t flip. The kids are starting to grow up in Washington (Wood, House, Gore, Abrams, Garcia etc). The future is bright.

MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 25.2 – Speaking of the kids blossoming in Washington, Gore threw another gem yesterday, going 6 IP with 6 hits, 2 ER, and a 9/3 vs. BOS. He now has a 3.38 ERA with a 29%/7.4% K%/BB% in 40 IP. The control is improved, the velocity is up, he’s inducing more weak contact, and he’s missing more bats. It’s a total across the board leveling up. Gore was my “pitching development isn’t linear” target this off-season, and this sure looks like the breakout we have been waiting for. He ranked 127th overall on the Updated Top Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon).

Justin Wrobleski LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Let’s stick with flame throwing lefties and talk about Wrobleski. It’s probably too late to jump on the Gore bandwagon, but there is still plenty of time to jump on the underrated Wrobleski train. He went 5 IP with 5 hits, 3 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB at Double-A, which has been the story of his season with a 4.86 ERA and 25.4%/2.9% K%/BB% in 33.1 IP. But be happy that ERA is elevated, because it just keeps his buy window wide open with a 3.13 xFIP, legitimately nasty stuff from the left side, much improved control, and a great organization. This is the type of pitcher that should be approaching elite pitching prospect status, and he really doesn’t have much hype at all. He should be owned in all league sizes.

Matt Wilkenson CLE, LHP, 21.5 – From lefty flamethrowers to lefty Tugboats, Wilkenson dominated again, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB at Single-A. He’s been insanely good on the season with a 1.02 ERA and 48.5%/6.9% K%/BB%, but he has to prove it against more advanced competition before really going all in on him, as the fastball only sits upper 80’s/low 90’s. I can’t help but be reminded so much of David Wells when watching him pitch, and there is no doubt he’s so easy to root for, but it still feels like more of a back end profile on the major league level. I like him, but I am going to continue to have some caution until I see him do this against more advanced hitters.

Jonny DeLuca TBR, OF, 25.9 – DeLuca finally made his Tampa debut in May after fracturing his hand in spring, and he’s showing why he was a named target for me this off-season. He’s off to a scorching start after going 1 for 3 with a double and walk yesterday, and now has a .930 OPS in 33 PA. The plate approach has been elite with a 9.1%/15.2% K%/BB%, he’s lifting the ball more with a 16.9 degree launch, and the speed is almost double plus with a 28.9 ft/sec spring and 2 steals. The 85.7 MPH EV is low, but if any team knows how to get the most out of low EV players, it’s the Rays (see Isaac Paredes). DeLuca is becoming the next Paredes, except with more speed. He’s now becoming a major target for me. Get him everywhere you can.

Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 20.4 – Isaac has officially shook off his bit of a rocky start with an absolute missile yesterday for his 6th homer in 28 games at High-A. And most importantly, the uncharacteristically poor hit tool has been much better of late with a .315 BA and 18.8%/15.6% K%/BB% in his last 16 games. He now has a 142 wRC+ at the level. He’s on a beeline for elite prospect status if he isn’t there already, and once he gets to the upper minors, it’s very possible he can rise to #1 overall fantasy prospect status in the near future.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.5 – With Toronto slowly falling out of the race at 18-22, and Addison Barger getting off to slow start, it’s only a matter of time before they start calling up their big guns, and Orelvis is the biggest gun they got right now. He smoked his 10th homer yesterday with an athletic and powerful righty swing that looks just about ready for the majors. He now has a 136 wRC+ with a 20.8%/9.4% K%/BB% in 35 games at Triple-A. Toronto has scored the 3rd least amount of runs in the game, and they desperately need a shot in the arm. Orelvis could be that shot. He’s a great stash.

Damiano Palmegiani TOR, 3B/1B, 24.3 – If Orelvis doesn’t give them that shot, Damiano will, as his bat is so sincere after cracking his 7th homer in 37 games at Triple-A. He hasn’t been destroying the level with a 97 wRC+, but his high K, high BB slugging profile is fully intact with a 91.4 MPH EV and 29.6%/12.5% K%/BB%. Considering their ages, it’s possible Toronto goes to Damiano first, but Orelvis has the much better glove and is the much better prospect in general. Regardless, Damiano is a very good prospect in his own right and is worth a stash in medium to deeper leagues.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 23.4 – While we’re on the topic of hitting stashes, Locklear should firmly be on your radar. France continues to slump with another 0-fer day, and Locklear’s footsteps keep getting louder and louder. He’s been destroying Double-A, slashing .295/.419/.500 with 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 22.6%/14.6% K%/BB% in 30 games. He’s done nothing but rip up pro ball at every stop, and while he’s not at Triple-A yet, I don’t think Seattle will make him spend much time there, if any, when they feel they are ready to make the switch. France isn’t a particularly good defensive player and he isn’t the type of bat you want at 1B. Locklear is that type of bat, and he’s coming for that 1B job of the present and the future.

Zac Veen COL, OF, 22.4 – I did all my mea culpas for ranking Veen so highly last year, but I knew I wasn’t going crazy thinking that this guy should be really good, and with a healthy hand, he’s back with a vengeance in 2024. He’s been straight unconscious, going 2 for 5 with a steal yesterday, and is now slashing .341/.434/.593 with 5 homers, 9 steals, and a 23.6%/12.3% K%/BB% in 26 games at Double-A. That’s good for a 191 wRC+. This is everything I thought he was capable of in 2023, but the hand injury clearly prevented the breakout. Today, we spell redemption, H-A-L-P … let’s not talk about Parker Meadows which now swaps with Veen as my worst call

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.11 – Talking about former favorites of mine, Morel is starting to lock in a true leveling up, going 2 for 4 with a 397 foot homer off Bailey Falter for his 9th in 40 games. Most importantly, he didn’t strike out once, and his 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% is looking oh so sweet combined with his hard hit ability (91.3 MPH EV), lift (14 degree launch), and athleticism (4 steals). The reasonable 29.8% whiff% mostly backs up the strikeout rate gains. His .384 xwOBA is in the top 8% of the league, and Chicago looks committed to getting his bat in the lineup despite continued poor defense. The surface stats haven’t completely caught up with the underlying numbers quite yet, so there could still be a buy window here if you are looking to buy offense that won’t cost you an arm and a leg.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – In my last Monday Morning Rundown, I implored you to not sell low on Cruz, and he’s exploded since then, crushing a 112.7 MPH bomb off Kyle Hendricks yesterday. He’s now slashing .344/385/.623 with 4 homers and a 14/4 K/BB in 18 games since that Rundown. The dude is a beast with a 94.2 MPH EV and a declining K rate (21.5% over those last 18 games). Any buy low window has been shut.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – I called Jazz a buy low in that same Rundown, and he’s also hit very well since then, going 2 for 3 with a double, triple, and 0/1 K/BB yesterday. He now has 3 homers, 4 steals, a 21% K% and .836 OPS in 19 games since that writeup. The dude is a gimme for 20/20, and 30/30 is so easily within reach too if he can just stay healthy. So far, he’s healthy. Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker were my two other buy low calls from that Rundown, and while they haven’t broken out yet, I still implore you to hold on to both, especially Carroll. My faith is Walker is maybe cracking a bit more after he got sent down, but long term, I still think he ends up really really good.

Jesus Baez NYM, SS, 19.1 – Baez is quickly becoming one of the most exciting Single-A breakouts, going 2 for 6 with a homer, and now has 4 homers, 5 steals, a 10.1% K%, and 131 wRC+ in 31 games. He hits the ball hard with a vicious righty swing and the K rate is in the elite range. He’s not a perfect prospect as he’s not a burner and the 5.8% BB% is low, but the hit/power combo is looking legit right now.

Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 26.3 – We finally have a pulse. Manoah went 7 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB vs. MIN. The fastball sat 93.8 MPH and all 4 of his pitches missed bats for a 33% whiff% overall. You obviously still can’t fully trust him, but just seeing him capable of putting together a good start is great to see after his complete implosion and poor 1st outing. Tread carefully here, but this is as close to the old Manoah we’ve seen since it all went wrong.

Ethan Salas SDP, C, 17.10/Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.6 – Let’s check in on San Diego’s experiment of being stupid aggressive with their assignments. Salas has a 67 wRC+ with 0 homers in 28 games at High-A. De Vries has a 65 wRC+ with a 30.3% K% in 7 games at Single-A and hasn’t played since May 1st. I hated the old way of being so conservative to the point of stunting prospects development and robbing baseball fans of seeing the best young players in the game at the highest levels, but San Diego has taken it to cartoonish levels, and it’s starting to come back to bite them.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on May 6, 2024May 10, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 301 May 2024 Dynasty Baseball Pure Prospects Rankings (Patreon)

These prospects rankings are for the pure, uncut prospects only. If you were tainted with MLB at bats/IP, even 1, you’ve lost your prospect virginity, and are ineligible for this list. The goal is to make a list with fresh names, and allow everyone to be evaluated on an even playing field of 0 MLB experience. Top 20 free here on the Brick Wall. Here is the Top 301 May 2024 Dynasty Baseball Pure Prospects Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-MAY TOP 301 PROSPECTS RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG! (4/24/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (May Update coming soon)
-MAY DYNASTY TARGETS COMING SOON
-SPREADSHEETS

1) (9) James Wood – WAS, OF, 21.8 – When you eliminate every player who has already made their MLB debut, Wood rises to the #1 pure prospect in the game. And he did it on the back of much improved contact rates at Triple-A with a 20.7% K%. He combines that with elite power (93.8 MPH EV), speed (8 steals), and OBP (15.6% BB%). He’s going to be scary good.

2) (16) Paul Skenes – PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Remember all that hand wringing about his fastball shape? Yea, neither do I as he’s been wrecking Triple-A with a 0.99 ERA and 42.9%/7.6% K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. The fastball averages 100 MPH and the secondaries (slider, splitter, change) rack up whiffs. This is what a true ace should do against minor league hitters, and he’s doing it. Let’s be honest, he shouldn’t be on this list at all. Call him up, Pitt.

3) (19) Matt Shaw – CHC, 3B, 22.6 – 3 homers, 7 steals, 23.2%/17.2% K%/BB% and 132 wRC+ in 24 games at Double-A. After the low walk rates in 2023, he’s clearly working on being more patient

4) (25) Emmanuel Rodriguez – MIN, OF, 21.2 – Baby Bonds is now officially an elite prospect with his destruction of Double-A, slashing .281/.500/.625 with 4 homers, 9 steals, a 28.3%/29.3% K%/BB% and 203 wRC+ in 20 games

5) (18) Spencer Jones – NYY, OF, 23.0 – Hit tool issues aren’t in the rear view mirror yet with a 32.4% K% in 16 games at Double-A, but it only needs to sit around 30% in the majors for him to be an absolute menace, and I’m betting on him being able to do that

6) (15) Jackson Jobe – DET, RHP, 21.9 – It took him a minute to find a rhythm, but he’s been back to his dominant self in his last 3 outings with a 16/3 K/BB in 11 IP at Double-A. Skenes might have separated himself a bit, but both of them are going to be aces. Unfortunately he did land on the IL with a hamstring strain during his latest start

7) (23) Coby Mayo – BAL, 1B/3B, 22.5 – Destined to be one of the top power hitters in baseball with 11 homers in 33 games at Triple-A, and the cherry on top is that he runs a bit too with 3 steals

8) (12) Walker Jenkins – MIN, OF, 19.2 – Limited to just 1 AB with a hamstring injury, but I wouldn’t let that change his outlook at all. His rise to uber prospect status has been delayed, but it’s still coming

9) (10) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 22.1 – Are we concerned yet? Crews followed up his poor Double-A debut in 2023 with a terrible spring, and now another poor showing at Double-A. He has a 34.3%/7.1% K%/BB% in 16 games. The 106 wRC+ isn’t terrible, but this isn’t the no doubt superstar college bat that we thought we were getting. That much is becoming pretty clear.

10) (14) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.0 – 33.3% K% and .225 BA is showing the hit tool risk, but considering he’s not quite 20 yet, and he has a 105 wRC+, I’m not overly concerned. He’s also clearly been working on keeping the ball off the ground with a 34.6% GB%, so some growing pains are normal

11) (27) Samuel Basallo – BAL, C/1B, 19.9 – Isn’t destroying the upper minors like he did the lower minors, but he’s still showing off the prodigious power with 5 homers in 24 games at Double-A as a 19 year old

12) (35) Colt Emerson – SEA, SS, 18.8 – Backing up his strong pro debut with a 131 wRC+ in 12 games at Single-A

13) (50) Lazaro Montes – SEA, OF, 19.6 – Going full Yordan Alvarez glow up with a 14.4%/13.6% K%/BB% and 6 homers in 24 games at Single-A. He’s a truly elite prospect

14) (30) Cade Horton – CHC, RHP, 22.9 – 1.77 ERA with a 24/6 K/BB in 20.1 IP in the upper minors. Fastball sat 93.7 MPH in his first start at Tripe-A, which isn’t overpowering, but maybe that is better off for his long term health considering 88.1 IP is his career high. I feel comfortable with my #2 starter evaluation of him from this off-season.

15) (58) Carson Williams – TBR, SS, 20.10 – Hit tool issues aren’t completely behind him with a 28%/5% K%/BB% in 22 games at Double-A, but he’s only 20, and he’s obliterating the level with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 178 wRC+. Tack on a plus glove which locks him in as Tampa’s SS of the future, and you have a nearly elite fantasy prospect.

16) (59) Jacob Melton – HOU, OF, 23.8 – 20.2% K% is huge to see, because we know he has the power/speed combo with 4 homers and 6 steals in 23 games at Double-A. He’s a legit elite athlete. Melton continues to be very underrated.

17) (36) Andrew Painter – PHI, RHP, 21.1 – Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in late July 2023, which will keep him out for all of 2024

18) (64) Noah Schultz – CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Back to his silly dominance with a 41.8%/7.6% K%/BB% in 19.1 IP at High-A. When Skenes/Jobe/Horton graduate, we are looking at a contender for the top pitching prospect in the game

19) (68) Tink Hence – STL, RHP, 21.8 – Hence was a buy low, bounce back target of mine, and he’s bouncing back with a 2.10 ERA and 32.6%/6.3% K%/BB% in 25.2 IP at Double-A. His ace ascension is back on

20) (195) Adam Mazur – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – Mazur was one of my top targets this off-season, and he’s showing why with a 2.39 ERA and 29.3%/4% K%/BB% in 26.1 IP at AA. I called him the discount Christian Scott, and he remains the discount Christian Scott. I’m all in

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 22, 2024April 22, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/22/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – “The captain goes down with the ship.” That’s just Maritime Law. Now, I’m no sailor, but as the world’s foremost expert on Fantasy Law, there are some players that you are required to go down with the ship for, and Corbin Carroll is most certainly one of those players. I’ve seen a ton of panic and sell low offers for Carroll, but all of the warning signs could be flashing red, the sirens could be blaring, and you are still legally obligated to not sell low on an established elite dynasty asset like Carroll on April 22nd. And quite frankly, all of the warning signs are far from flashing red. The plate approach has been elite and better than ever with a 13.6%/13.6% K%/BB%, the whiff% is down to 17.3%, and the base running is elite with 8 steals. He’s definitely been unlucky too with a .288 wOBA vs. .328 xwOBA. The one big flashing warning sign is the 84.0 MPH EV, but the 91.0 MPH FB/LD EV and 110.1 Max EV both look much better, so I 100% think that is going to come way up over time. And it’s already starting to come up with a 88.9 MPH EV over his last 8 games. Obviously the shoulder is the big concern, but we haven’t heard anything about the shoulder bothering him, so using that as the reason to sell him seems too speculative. But all of that is besides the point anyway. The point is that Carroll is an established 23 year old beast with a .285/25/54 season already under his belt. This is a player you stay so patient with that the ship could actually be sinking, and you still hold on, but I don’t actually think the ship is sinking here. Hold on for dear life.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – While we’re on the topic of elite or near elite dynasty assets that I’m not selling low on, let’s talk about Oneil Cruz (along with Jazz and Jordan below). Carroll you would have to still pay up for to acquire, but Cruz, Jazz and Jordan’s prices might be entering a mighty juicy area if their owner is getting frustrated, and I would be all over it. Cruz is struggling with a .587 OPS, but he is still absolutely crushing the ball with a 92.5 MPH EV, and he’s still running with 2 steals despite barely being on base. The 40.2% K% is scary, but his 31.6% whiff% is much lower than that and not far off from what he did last year. That K% is definitely going to come down, and when it does, only good things are going to happen with how hard he crushes the ball. Let’s also give him some leeway to shake the rust off after that very serious injury. He’s on about a 22/15 pace and that’s with him playing very poorly. I’m buying the slow start.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz is off to a lukewarm start with a .699 OPS, and the perception on him feels lukewarm in general, which makes now a great time to go after him, especially considering there are things to be very excited about in the underlying numbers. For one, the swing and miss is way down with a career best 25.6% whiff% (35.7% in 2023), and the plate approach has been improved as well with a career best 11.4% BB% and 25.1% Chase%. These improvements haven’t hindered his power at all with a beastly 91.1 MPH EV and 15.1% Barrel%. He’s running a ton as well with 4 steals. This is true elite dynasty potential … as long as he stays healthy. It’s 100% fair to ding him for being injury prone, and we saw with Robert and Royce, it can definitely come back to bite you, but I like to take risks in fantasy, and Jazz is a risk worth taking.

Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – Walker is a 21 year old who improved his Barrel% 5 percentage points to 12.5%, his EV 2.9 MPH to 92.3 MPH, his launch 2.2 degrees to 12.4, his whiff% 2.4% percentage points to 27.6% and his BB% 1.5 percentage points to 9.5%. He’s blowing up … or I should say he should be blowing up, but the OPS sits at a horrific .511 OPS. Remember it’s still only 63 PA though. Wonky stuff happens in 63 PA, and this is definitely wonky. He’s been unlucky with a .304 xwOBA, but beyond being unlucky, the underlying numbers point to a big explosion coming in the near future. Walker is still on that elite dynasty asset journey, and if you can buy in now off the struggles to take that journey with him, I would go for it.

Ralphy Velazquez CLE, 1B, 18.10 – Now that we got The Bad News Bears out of the way, let’s talk about some guys off to legitimately exciting starts, and there are few breakout prospects I’m more excited about than Ralphy. He was a major FYPD target of mine, calling him “the Xavier Isaac of this draft class,” and he’s lived up to my billing of him after another big night at the dish, going 3 for 5 with a double that rocketed off his bat. He’s destroying Single-A as an 18 year old, slashing .375/.448/.688 with 4 homers and a 22.4%/12.1% K%/BB% in 12 games. Cleveland already moved him off catcher to 1B so the beastly bat could shine. He jumped to 339th overall on the updated Top 427 April Dynasty Rankings that hit the Patreon last week, which makes him an easy Top 100 prospect when I update the Top 300 Prospects Rankings next week.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – Speaking of players moving into my Top 100 Prospects, Dana took a huge jump on those Updated Dynasty Rankings as well, and he backed up that jump with his best outing yet, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 8/1 K/BB as a 20 year old at Double-A. The camera angle was behind the plate for this one, and I loved the dramatic slow zoom-in from the camera person after every strikeout. A true artist. Dana now has a 1.47 ERA with a 28.4%/4.5% K%/BB% in 18.1 IP, and he has the stuff and build to back it up at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo. He also throws a curve and change. We might be talking about him as an elite pitching prospect in the not too distant future.

Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Jones demolished his first homer out to deep centerfield and tacked on 2 steals on a 3 for 4 day. He has a 191 wRC+ with a 20/8%/12.5% K%/BB% in 6 games. The improved strikeout rate is huge to see, and he’s lifting the ball more too with a 31.3% GB%. He’s carrying over the impressive spring into Double-A and is now an undisputed elite dynasty prospect. The Unicorn Revolution is in full swing with Wood and Jones ready to join Elly and Cruz.

Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 18.4 – Cincy skipped Duno over stateside rookie ball and threw him into the fire at Single-A as an 18 year old, and he’s responding after hitting his first homer at the level in 10 games. You can see the powerful and athletic swing right there from a 6’2”, 210 pound frame. He’s now slashing .282/.370/.487 with a 26.1%/10.9% K%/BB% and 141 wRC+. He’s been an elite dynasty prospect catcher waiting to happen since he was a high priced international signing, and while he’s not quite there yet, he’s certainly knocking on the door of the Top 100.

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – Westburg was one of my top off-season targets, ranking him very high at #149 on the Top 1,000 and writing, “While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo, Basallo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night” … and if you took my advice and did that, you better lock your doors and windows at night, because his former owner might be out for blood after seeing his start to the season. He had another huge day yesterday, going 2 for 3 with a 110.5 MPH homer and 107.6 MPH triple. He’s now slashing an insane .333/.392/.639 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 20%/6.3% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up with a 14% Barrel%, 93.8 MPH EV and .424 xwOBA. He already rose to #101 on the April Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and even that might not be high enough. We could be talking about a Top 50 dynasty asset by May.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser isn’t far behind Westburg, ranking 108th overall on those updated rankings, and he’s staying in lockstep with him, cracking a 111.5 MPH homer last night. He’s now slashing .373/.411/.784 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 30.4%/7.1% K%/BB% in 20 games. The underlying numbers back it up as well with a 17.1% Barrel%, 91.7 MPH EV, and .416 xwOBA. I give Westburg the edge because of the superior contact rates, but both of these guys are exploding into the type of core dynasty assets you build your team around.

Jose Soriano LAA, RHP, 25.6 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 7/3 K/BB vs. CIN. The sinker sat 97.2 MPH, and the curve and splitter racked up whiffs with a 41% and 50% whiff% respectively. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 25% K% in 21 IP. Soriano has the great combo of keeping the ball on the ground with a negative 0.6 degree launch on the back of the sinker, huge velocity, and missing bats on the back of the sweeper, slider, and splitter. The control is the only thing that isn’t there with a 12.5% BB%, but with his kind of stuff, he can survive with below average control. And if the control takes a step forward, he could explode. I’m buying Soriano.

Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 25.10 – Speaking of poor control with huge stuff, Gil dominated yesterday, going 5.2 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 9/3 K/BB vs. TBR. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and notched a 38% whiff%, while the slider notched a 40% whiff%. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 34.5% K% in 19.2 IP, but the 20.2% BB% is full blown panic territory. His control was horrific in the minors as well, so while it’s obviously not going to remain this high, it’s well in the danger territory. It makes me hesitant to fully pay up for him in a trade, but the upside is clearly worth hanging onto.

Mitchell Parker WAS, LHP, 24.7 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/0 K/BB vs. HOU. Parker is definitely moving into interesting territory after his 2nd strong outing, and in this one he was able to miss bats with a 29% whiff%. He now has a 1.50 ERA with a 27.9%/0.0% K%/BB% in 12 IP. He’s missed bats his entire minor league career with a deceptive lefty delivery, so seeing it transfer to the majors is huge, and most importantly for him, the control has been much improved this year. He only throws 91.9 MPH, and the control was below average prior to this year, so definitely tread carefully, but he’s certainly worth a pick up for a pitching starved team.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 23.4 – Pages had his coming out party in the majors, going 2 for 4 with a 413 foot bomb for his first MLB homer. He passed Miguel Vargas on the depth chart and earned this callup with across the board destruction of Triple-A with a 181 wRC+ in 15 games, and LA seems intent on giving him a full time shot. The 83.3 MPH EV and 34.3% whiff% in 5 games shows there will be an adjustment period, but he also has a 22.2% Barrel%, and is sneaky fast with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint. He’s been raking since spring and proving the shoulder is 100% healthy. He’s one of the biggest early season risers.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.4 – Orelvis is doing his darndest to kick the door down after hitting his 6th homer in his last 7 games. This thing exploded off his bat at 108.6 MPH. Along with the dingers, the hit tool has been as good as ever with a .333 BA and 21.5% K%. He’s only played 2B this year, which shows you what his path to playing time is. The problem is, Biggio, Clement, IKF and Schneider have all played well themselves on the MLB level, so it doesn’t make sense for Toronto to make a switch right now. Orelvis will have to be patient for injuries and/or struggles to hit first, but he’s doing all he can do to force the issue.

Austin Martin MIN, 2B/OF, 25.0 – The written off Austin Martin might finally be coming into his man muscles after jacking out his first MLB homer yesterday. That lightning quick righty swing reminds you why he got taken 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. And his 88 MPH EV is very encouraging, although it comes with zero barrels and a 87.4 MPH FB/LD EV in 44 PA, so I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. But he’s always had the contact/speed profile, which is transferring with a 13.6% K% and top 23% sprint speed, so even a small uptick in power would go a long way. With Kepler returning soon, there isn’t a full time job for him, but Martin is putting some respect back on his name after falling out of favor over the past few years.

Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – The Red Sox wanted to make it a point to get Abreu’s bat back in the lineup. and he showed why yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 104.3 MPH double. Just like 2023, Abreu is proving he’s legit with a 9.1% Barrel%, 90.5 MPH EV, 16.5 degree launch, and 28.8%/15.3% K%/BB% in 59 PA. He’s also running a ton with 4 steals. He’s starting to establish himself as not only a rock solid real life hitter, but also as an impact fantasy player. He’s worthy of a pick up in all league sizes, and if you’ve read my work since last year, you likely already have him, at least in medium to deeper leagues.

Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 24.2 – Woo made his first rehab appearance at Triple-A coming off elbow inflammation, and he looked mostly healthy, going 3 perfect innings with 5 K’s. The fastball was down a tick to 93.9 MPH, but considering it was his first outing, I wouldn’t be worried about that, and all of his pitches racked up whiffs. He’s ready to continue his ascent to young ace status.

Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 22.10 – Many of the best pitching stashes have either already been called up or are likely already on people’s rosters, but Tidwell might be still out there, and he’s a worthy stash. He had another good outing yesterday, going 4 IP with 2 hit, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB at Double-A. He now has a 1.84 ERA with a 32.1%/10.7% K%/BB% in 14.2 IP. The control is below average, but as long as he keeps it in a manageable range, the electric fastball/slider combo will do the rest. The path to a rotation spot is actually pretty crowded, so this might be more of a 2nd half call, and it’s also possible the Mets use him out of the bullpen, at least early in his career. But he’s worthy of keeping an eye on in all league sizes.

Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Poor Mr. Beavers is going full breakout at Double-A after drilling his 2nd homer in 13 games, slashing .347/.421/.551 with 2 homers, 3 steals, a 34.2% GB%, and 19%/12.1% K%?BB%, but where in the world is this guy going to play. Kyle Stowers is about to be eligible for AARP, and he’s rotting away in the minors. The 25 year old Kjerstad seems like next man up, but he has 10 homers in 21 games and still hasn’t gotten the call. Coby Mayo has a 160 wRC+ with no path in sight. Let’s not even mention Connor Norby. Mr. Beavers is so far down the line, it’s like showing up to Starbucks during the lunch rush, seeing how insanely long the wait is going to be, and just turning around and leaving.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-APRIL TOP 427 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (4/19/24)
-APRIL TOP 300+ 2024 PROSPECTS RANKS COMING NEXT WEEK
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG COMING WEDNESDAY!
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 15, 2024April 19, 2024 by Michael Halpern

April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep on the Patreon. Top 19 are free here on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. A spreadsheet is also available. Here is the April 2024 Top 427 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THESE RANKINGS & TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

*Off-season rankings are in parenthesis

1) (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. – ATL, OF, 26.3 – I’m not ready to unseat Acuna from the top spot on April 15th. You can pick apart the underlying numbers, but with a player like Acuna, doing that a few weeks into the season is silly. Maybe the knee is bothering him, but he has 7 steals, so it can’t be bothering him that much. We’ll re-asses next month if he’s still struggling, but for now, he remains the top dog.

2) (2) Bobby Witt Jr. – KCR, SS, 23.10 – I ranked Witt 2nd overall on the Top 1,000 and closed out his blurb by writing, “There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024.” … I was way off, he’s actually been much better than that with a 1.086 OPS and all of the underlying numbers to match, namely a 97.6 MPH EV. If anyone was going to take the top spot from Acuna, it would be Witt, but I’m not there yet.

3) (6) Fernando Tatis Jr. – SDP, OF, 25.3 – With a normal off-season, Tatis is back to his elite self with a .398 xwOBA, and his contact rates have been better than ever with a 14.3% K%. Maybe he got fully healthy coming off all of the surgeries, or maybe he’s back on the juice, but regardless, he’s back (I’m just half joking, I’m betting that he is just fully healthy)

4) (5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani – LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – It seems Ohtani has officially been absolved of any wrongdoing in the gambling scandal, and whether there is more to this story or not, Ohtani seems safe. The elbow injury also hasn’t impacted his hitting at all with a 1.048 OPS in 18 games.

5) (3) Corbin Carroll – ARI, OF, 23.7 – I’ve been seeing a lot of sell low panic with Carroll, but with an elite player like Carroll, I would refuse to sell low under any circumstances. I would rather go down with the ship.

6) (4) Julio Rodriguez – SEA, OF, 23.3 – I saw this slow start coming from a mile away, starting Julio’s Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride.” The guy is quite clearly a slow starter. He will get hot eventually, like he has the past two seasons.

7) (7) Juan Soto – NYY, OF, 25.6 – Soto is in the midst of that career year (1.009 OPS) that will land him that 1 Billi contract and put some respect back on Scott Boras’ name. 95.2 MPH EV and 13% K% are both at career best levels too

8) (8) Kyle Tucker – HOU, OF, 27.2 – The quiet killer is back at it with a .460 xwOBA that is 10th best in the league. It’s kinda amazing how great Tucker is and how nobody really gives a crap

9) (9) Elly De La Cruz – CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – I coined myself the Autobahn of Dynasty Baseball Schools, and I lived up to that billing ranking Elly 9th overall this off-season. He’s currently #6 overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I was too low. Sure he’ll strikeout out about 30% of the time, but the other 70% of the time he will do superhuman shit

10) (10) Yordan Alvarez – HOU, OF, 26.9 – .525 xwOBA leads the league. In leagues that devalue steals, he has an argument to be #1

Shadow10) (13) Shohei Ohtani – LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only

11) (12) Aaron Judge – NYY, OF, 31.11 – Only Judge could have a 94.2 MPH EV and it be the 2nd lowest mark of his career

12) (14) Mookie Betts – LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Mookie is having a late career power surge like it’s the steroid era all over again. 6 homers in 18 games puts him on pace to break his career high for the 3rd year in a row

13) (28) Gunnar Henderson – BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – Launch is up to 15.2 degrees, whiff% is down to 23.9%, and he’s running more with 4 steals. The only thing he hasn’t improved that he needed to improve is a .596 OPS vs. lefties. But improving in 3 of the 4 areas he needed to show improvement in is good enough for me to move him into near elite dynasty asset territory

14) (16) Michael Harris – ATL, OF, 23.1 – He’s not going full explosion yet, but he’s hitting the ball harder than ever with a 91.8 MPH EV, 114.4 MPH Max EV and 53.5% Hard Hit%. All are career highs. 4.2 degree launch needs to rise to truly explode, but even as is, he’s near elite.

15) (46) CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 23.6 – Abrams is going full power explosion with a 91.7 MPH EV and 3 homers in 12 games. It’s too early to say the power explosion is 100% legit, but even a small leveling up would go a long way. There are not many guys I would trade Abrams for at this point, and if he comes back down to earth, we are still talking about a really good player

16) (43) Anthony Volpe – NYY, SS, 22.11 – Tony Low Launch matured like 10 years in a single off-season. He’s hitting the ball harder with a 91.1 MPH EV and the plate approach is insanely improved with a 13.6%/15.2% K%/BB%. He’s also still running a ton with 5 steals. He ranks 13th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. I named him a target this off-season, and I’m definitely buying in. This was an elite prospect who is leveling up in year 2

17) (13) Bryce Harper – PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper had a back issue pop up in spring and he’s struggled in both spring and to start the year. He’s also been unlucky though (.287 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA) and he’s still crushing the ball with with a 91.1 MPH EV. You gotta stay patient with vets like Harper

18) (15) Jose Ramirez – CLE, 3B, 31.6 – .692 OPS and the underlying numbers are even worse than that with a .258 xwOBA, but like Harper, you can’t panic with vets like this at this point in the season

19) (17) Trea Turner – PHI, SS, 30.9 – 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. Turner has yet to lose even a half step of speed. The decline ain’t coming this year

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 15, 2024April 15, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Welcome to April Dynasty Baseball Rankings Week! (Patreon)

When updating Dynasty Rankings this early into the season, you have 2 options only, and that is to overreact or to underreact. There is no middle ground. Either you buy in too much to a hot start that ends up being a mirage, or you don’t buy in enough and leave the best 2024 breakouts under ranked. I’ll try my best to thread the needle, and to separate the wheat from the chaff, but whenever dealing with small samples like this, that is just the game. Regardless, tough decisions have to be made at all points of the season with trades constantly being lobbed at us, and waiver wires being run. I’m going over 400 deep with the first post dropping later today on Patreon. Top 20-ish will be free on the Brick Wall. Blurbs for every player. (Update: The first post just dropped, click here for the Top 19 free on IBW). A spreadsheet will be available when the rankings are completed. See ya soon …

-Halp

***(Update: The first post just dropped, click here for the Top 19 free on IBW)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-SPREADSHEETS

Posted on April 8, 2024April 8, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/8/24)

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – 1 for 5 with 3 K’s yesterday and is now 1 for 13 with 7 K’s at Double-A on the season. This coming off a spring where he hit .156 with a 31.6% K% in 38 PA. Which came off a pro debut in 2023 where he put up 73 wRC+ in 85 PA at Double-A. I hate horror movies, and this is getting scarier than any horror movie I have ever seen (I still get nightmares from Event Horizon). Granted, the competition has been tough. Here he is getting completely dominated by a 99 MPH Jackson Jobe fastball yesterday. And he faced Ty Madden in his 2nd game who is an MLB ready mid-rotation starter. Not sure what his excuse is for Lael Lockhart in game 1, although again to be fair, Lockhart dominated everyone in that game with 0 ER and 9 K’s in 4.1 IP. Lockhart was also dominant in the upper minors last year … wait, who the hell is this Lockhart guy? (he actually looks interesting for my 30 teamers out there) … but let’s not get off track. Crews has every one of his dynasty owners in a full Patrick Ewing sweat right now, and I’m not sure I can be the guy to talk you down from the ledge. Regardless, there is nothing you can do but hold, because there is no sense in selling low. I would still be pretty shocked if he can’t even get it going against minor league pitching.

Zack Gelof OAK, 2B, 24.5 – And this is why losing our minds after a week and a half of games can get silly. Gelof came into Sunday with a .508 OPS in 9 games and he left it with a .781 OPS in 10 games. One game turned his season from “should I drop him” trash into having a pretty damn good start. Granted, it was a great day, going 4 for 5 with a 108.3 MPH homer to show off the power, and a 81.6 MPH triple to show off the legs. He came into the game with 2 steals. If you think this is good, just wait until Oakland moves to that PCL bandbox in Sacramento for the next 3 years. Aaron Judge won’t be the only player hitting bombs there.

Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 20.8 – Schultz is healthy and once again putting jaws on the floor with a level of dominance that is not normal. He went 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER and a 10/0 K/BB at High-A on Saturday. There was no broadcast of the game, but he was reportedly sitting mid to upper 90’s and the slider was filthy. This coming off his insane 2023 with a 1.33 ERA and 36.5%/5.8% K%/BB%. He was my top pitching target from his FYPD class, so hopefully you already own him, because he’s going to be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball one day, and that day is probably like 3-4 months away. The only thing that could stop him is something I don’t even want to bring up. We’ve been hit with enough bad news in the last few days (Bieber, Strider, Eury etc …)

Dylan Lesko SDP, RHP, 20.7 – Lesko might have something to say about that claim that Schultz will take over as the top pitching prospect in the game, throwing a “no hitter” yesterday, going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/3 K/BB at High-A. The control was scattershot, which isn’t great because all we’ve seen of Lesko in pro ball has been scattershot control (15.2% BB% in 33 IP in 2023), but the plus to double plus stuff was on full display. The fastball was in the mid 90’s, he befuddled lefties with the double plus change and dominated righties with the slider. I don’t think there was a single ball hit hard all day. He needs to show improved control before he can really fly up rankings, and I’m betting on him figuring that out at some point.

Ryan Pepiot TBR, RHP, 26.0 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 11/0 K/BB vs. COL at Coors. That improved control from last year showed back up, which is what made me call him a major target in my September 2023 Early Off-Season Target article. The fastball sat 94.1 MPH and put up a 50% whiff%. The slider and changeup were effective too, inducing weak contract and getting whiffs. It all led to a 86.5 MPH EV with a 41% whiff%. He’s in good hands with Tampa, and maybe add a star because he doesn’t throw 100 MPH? I’m ready to welcome in our new age of soft tossers who stay healthy … 94 MPH seems like a perfect compromise.

Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Crochet cements his status as a young ace with every outing. He impressed for the 3rd time in a row yesterday, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. KCR. The fastball sat 96.6 MPH and the slider notched a 64% whiff%. Most importantly, the control was once again pristine (1 walk in 18 IP on the season) and the third pitch, the cutter, performed well again with a 44% whiff%, 57% CSW%, and 78.7 MPH EV against. He’ll be entering at least my Top 150 overall when I update the Dynasty Rankings this month on the Patreon.

MJ Melendez KCR, OF, 25.4 – Melendez might be turning into a superstar right before our eyes. Statcast was yelling at us to buy low after he hit only 16 homers last year, because when someone puts up an insane 93.1 MPH EV with a 16.9 degree launch, it should not be taken lightly. And now he’s making up for lost homers after walloping his 3rd homer in just 9 games. And even better, his K% is all the way down to 20.6% (28.2% in 2023). There is no guarantee he can maintain the contact gains, but it’s certainly a good sign, and it is a near guarantee he can maintain the power. Melendez has a chance to be one of the best power hitters in the game for a long time.

Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – A .143 BABIP is the only thing in the way of everyone gushing over Greene, because everything else is screaming he is about to explode this year. He went 2 for 3 with a 102..9 MPH homer off lefty Kyle Muller. He’s still only hitting .188, but the 13.6 degree launch and 21.1%/15.8% K%/BB% says this is the real breakout we have been waiting for.

Colt Emerson SEA, SS, 18.8 – The next wave of hyped up prospects are coming to take their rightful spot at the top of prospect rankings, and that starts with none other than Colt Emerson. He stayed calm and loose in the box before unfurling a swing that reminded me of a big cat striking it’s prey in the jungle. Just a vicious swing that murdered the baseball for his 2nd homer in 3 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. If you want to nitpick, it comes with a 62.5% GB% and 28.6%/7.1% K%/BB%, but it’s only 3 games, so it’s merely something to watch.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.6 – The 18 year old Nimmala faced off against the MLB proven, 26 year old Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Nimmala’s pretty and explosive righty swing came away the victor. He hit a pretty nice looking breaking ball 376 feet at 100 MPH for his first professional homer in 3 games at Single-A. Like Emerson, we still have to watch that GB% (66.7%) and strikeout rate (46.2%), but these are two of the most explosive, and youngest players at Single-A.

Zyhir Hope LAD, OF, 19.2 – Hope didn’t have the 1st round hype of Emerson and Nimmala, drafted 326th overall, but he sure has the talent to be put in the same group as them, and he actually one upped them yesterday. He cranked 2 homers yesterdays to the same spot, and the 2nd one was crushed harder than the first. I already gave him the full hype treatment on the Patreon after he hit his first homer of the year on Friday, so this makes it 3 in 3 games. Even better, the 20%/20% K%/BB% and 33.3% GB% looks great after struggling with both at rookie ball last year. Along with the very legit power, he has double plus speed (1 steal) and legit athleticism. He might be the biggest pure riser in the very early going. When the Dodgers come knocking on the door for your prospects, just say no (he was traded with Jackson Ferris for Michael Busch this off-season, so Chicago came out just fine too-Busch looks legit).

Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 19.5 – Montes already made his ascension and proved himself at Single-A in 2023, but he’s back for more in 2024 with his first bomb of the season, golfing one out like Tiger Woods. These days, you might as well have one foot in the grave if you’re 19 years olds at Single-A. That is so 2021. But he’s showing off his experience with a 6.7%/13.3% K%/BB% in 3 games. He improved the hit tool in 2023, and if he’s taking another step in 2024, he might be entering Yordan Alvarez ceiling territory, rather than “just” a low BA/high OBP slugger.

Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Seattle has an embarrassment of riches at Single-A, and Farmelo joined the party yesterday too with his 2nd homer in 3 games. The guy has yet to a hit a single groundball, but has been swinging and missing plenty with a 40% K%. He’s just pure upside with double plus speed to go along with the power, and like most of these young kids, the hit tool will dictate how good they can become.

Aidan Smith SEA, OF, 19.8 – Emerson, Montes, Farmelo … and now Aidan Smith is joining the fun in Seattle as well, going deep twice. This game seemed more like batting practice than a real game, or maybe this Seattle team is the Single-A version of Baltimore’s Triple-A team. Seattle has an army ready to supplement Julio and that rotation in a couple years. Watch your back, Texas.

Shota Imanaga CHC, LHP, 30.7 – No cake matchup excuse this time, Imanaga went out there and dominated the Dodgers, going 4 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB. The 92.3 MPH fastball notched a 33% whiff% and the splitter was solid with a 43% CSW%. There is zero doubt at this point that Imanaga’s low 90’s stuff will easily transfer to MLB. It sure looks like he might be a legit ace, or near ace, and that isn’t exaggerating. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 34.3%/0% K%/BB% in 10 IP. I didn’t give him enough respect this off-season.

Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 25.1 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 3/1 vs/ STL. The ballyhooed slider is living up to the billing, dominating with a 49% usage, 45% whiff%, and 81 MPH EV against. The fastball sat 94.6 MPH, and the changeup was solid too with a 84.8 MPH EV against. It’s getting pretty safe to say that Meyer is 100% healthy coming off Tommy John, and he’s establishing that he’s the real deal on the MLB level. He might be approaching Top 200 dynasty asset status.

Ronel Blanco HOU, RHP, 30.7 – Blanco followed up his no hitter with a 1 hitter over 6, going 6 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 4/4 K/BB vs. TEX. He didn’t get many whiffs with a 14% whiff%, but he induced weak contact with a 83.3 MPH EV, so it’s certainly not pure luck. I’m still not fully buying in, because I’m a K/BB guy at the end of the day, but it’s obvious he’s not a complete mirage either. Solid mid-rotation starter is as high as I can go on him right now.

Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 20.11 – There was a reason Merrill made the team as a 20 year old out of camp, and that is because he is clearly ready after going 4 for 4 with a stolen base yesterday. And those hits came off Logan Webb (103.1 MPH, 93 MPH, and 72.3 singles) and Camilo Doval (104.8 MPH single). He’s now slashing .324/.395/.471 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 18.4%/10.5% K%/BB% in 12 games. The 92.6 MPH EV and 10.1 degree launch looks great as well. He’s not even 21 yet. He’s going to be a superstar.

Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – I can’t guarantee that Jazz is going to stay healthy, but I can guarantee that he is healthy right now with how he looks to start 2024. He cracked a 105.4 MPH, 412 foot bomb off Kyle Gipson for his 2nd of the year. He now has a 91.7 MPH EV with a 21.7% Barrel%. The plate approach has also been much improved with a 26.2%/19% K%/BB%. I kept the faith on him, ranking him 34th overall, and let me feel pretty good about that before the other shoe drops (hopefully it doesn’t).

Landen Maroudis TOR, RHP, 19.4 – Talented 2024 FYPD pitching prospect, Landen Maroudis, saw what Barrett Kent did on Friday, and one upped him (just like his signing bonus one upped him-Maroudis signed for $1.5 million and Kent for $1 million), going 4 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB vs. a Single-A Tigers lineup that featured Max Clark and Josue Briceno. The fastball sat 94.5 MPH and the slider and curve notched a 40% and 100% whiff%, respectively. He also mixed in a sinker and changeup. He’s a projectable 6’3” with an athletic and explosive righty delivery. The fastball was crisp and he had the breaking balls on a string. It sure looks like he’s about to blow up.

Lonnie White PIT, OF, 21.3 – White demolished an absolute NUKE that I’m pretty sure hit off the scoreboard for his 2nd homer in just 3 games at High-A. That is the type of raw talent I was talking about when I ranked him 46th overall on my Predicting the 2025 Top 50 Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “White will start the year at the age appropriate High-A and do exactly what he did at Single-A in 2023 to High-A in 2024. The elite level athleticism combined with age to level production will have everyone buying in.” He now has a .953 OPS, but there is one small snafu … okay, one big snafu … it comes with a 7/1 K/BB. The hit tool is the thing that can tank him, and right now, the K’s are just as concerning as the homers are impressive. He’s going to need to make better contact to make due on my Top 50 prediction for him.

Jordan Beck COL, OF, 22.11 – Beck is simply unconscious at Triple-A, popping his 3rd homer in 8 games, and he didn’t strike out in this one either. He could be one of the top impact hitting prospects to get called up in 2024, and he’ll have Coors Field at his back. I gave you the heads up to stash him last Monday, and he’s only continued his dominance.

Samuel Zavala CHW, OF, 19.9 – Zavala had a rough cup of coffee at High-A last year, so it’s nice to see him getting off to a hot start this year after hitting his 1st homer in 3 games. He has a 209 wRC+, but we need to see the 31.3%/6.3% K%/BB% improve before we can get really excited.

Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 21.3 – Ramirez has been sitting the breakout waiting room for a long time, and this year it’s now or never. He’s choosing now as he sliced an opposite field dinger for his first of the year at Double-A. He’s now hitting .455 with 4 steals and a 30.8%/15.4% K%/BB% in 3 games. I know we all have prospect fatigue with him, but he’s still just 21 years old at Double-A. This could finally be the explosion.

Max Muncy OAK, SS, 21.8 – Muncy is another 21 year old who the prospect community has tired on, but he’s ripping up Triple-A right now, and he’ll play at a Triple-A ballpark until 2027, making him even more enticing. He hit his first homer and finished the day 3 with 4 with 2 doubles and 0 K’s. He now has a 163 wRC+ with 2 steals and a 14.3% K%. He’s always had the talent, drafted 25th overall in 2021, and he just might be coming into his own.

Wilfred Veras CHW, OF, 21.5 – Veras is another super talented 21 year old in the upper minors who is making waves after pimping the shit out of his 2nd homer at Double-A. He now has a 387 wRC+ with an 18.2% K%. Chicago is desperate for some real talent, and Veras certainly has real talent as Fernando Tatis’ cousin. He might also be entering sneaky 2nd half stash appeal.

Tyler O’Neill BOS, OF, 28.10 – Remember Cardinals Devil Magic? Where the Cardinals were able to turn every off the radar hitter into gold. Well, there is a dark side to dancing with the Devil, and that bill has been coming due over the last few years. Now every former Cardinals outfielder turns to gold once they leave St. Louis, and O’Neill is next in line after ripping his 5th homer yesterday. He now has a 1.407 OPS, 92.1 MPH EV, 22.7% Barrel%, and 16.2%/18.9% K%/BB% in 9 games. Don’t question the dark arts. This was inevitable.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES
-TOP 42 PROSPECTS TO STACH FOR 2024 ONLY (4/3/24)
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG!
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)