Imaginary Brick Wall

Opening Day is just around the corner, and that means it’s time to release the mother of all lists on the Brick Wall, the Top 1,000 2023 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. These rankings were originally released on the Patreon on February 3rd. Without further ado, here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

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-OBP TOP 500 2023 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-PTS/6+CAT/OPS “UNIVERSAL” TOP 500 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS
-POSTION BY POSITION TARGET/SLEEPER/UNDERRATED SERIES
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-9 MILD PREDICTIONS FOR 2023 ROOKIES
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS
-2023 FYPD STRATEGY &TARGET GUIDE
-DYNASTY RUNDOWNS AND MONTHLY DYNASTY & PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES ALL SEASON

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 28.9 – Ohtani came into 2022 as my #1 overall dynasty player, and he not only hung onto the top spot, but he somehow managed to pull even further away from the pack. He became arguably the best pitcher in baseball with a 2.33 ERA and 33.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 166 IP. He also continued to be among the best hitters in baseball with a .385 xwOBA which was 6th best overall. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ohtani is the greatest player to ever play the game. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

2) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 22.3 – Prospects can break your heart, but the season Julio just had is why we play the game. There is nothing more satisfying in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him explode in his MLB debut. And explode is exactly what he did, slashing .284/.345/.509 with 28 homers, 25 steals, and a 25.9%/7.1% K%/BB% in 132 games. He has elite speed (29.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and elite exit velocity numbers (92/96.2 MPH AVG/FB EV). He closed out the season with a bang, putting up a 1.202 OPS in his final 19 games, which could be foreshadowing for what he has in store for 2023. The only quibble is that he ran far less in the 2nd half with only 4 steals in 7 attempts in his final 50 games, but considering how fast he is, I wouldn’t get too hung up on that. 2023 Projection: 96/32/98/.278/.353/.522/26

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 25.3 – Acuna underwent knee surgery for a torn ACL in late July 2021, and he was understandably not 100% in 2022. It’s seriously impressive that he was able to make his debut in late April, but that is where the impressing ended. He put up a career worst .764 OPS with only 15 homers in 119 games. His launch angle tanked 7.4 degrees to 10.8 degrees and his sprint speed dropped 0.9 ft/sec to 28.5 ft/sec. It was far from a complete disaster though. His .366 xwOBA was in the top 5% of the league, his 24.9% whiff% was a career best, and he still ran a ton with 29 steals. With a normal off-season and more time away from that surgery, I would be shocked if Acuna doesn’t bounce back to elite levels. 2023 Projection: 106/32/91/.279/.362/.511/33

4) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 25.9 – Alvarez’s .462 xwOBA was bested only by Aaron Judge by .001. His 95.2 MPH EV was only topped by Aaron Judge. He was the 2nd best hitter in baseball this year, behind you guessed it, Aaron Judge. I think you get the point. He’s a 6’5”, 225 pound beast who hits the ball with superhuman strength, and he also has an elite plate approach with a 18.9%/13.9% K%/BB%. The surgically repaired knees might become an issue down the line, but they clearly aren’t going to slow him down anytime soon. 2023 Projection: 102/40/111/.302/.400/.578/1

5) Juan Soto SDP, OF, 24.5 – Soto’s numbers fell off hard in San Diego with a .778 OPS and only 6 homers in 52 games. They have one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in baseball, so it would be easy to feel a little trepidation, but betting against Soto seems foolish. His underlying numbers were still elite in San Diego with a 92.1 MPH EV and 14.9%/19.3% K%/BB% in 228 PA. He was very unlucky all year with a .249 BABIP (career .309 BABIP). His .401 xwOBA was the 4th best mark in baseball. The dude is still silly elite. 2023 Projection: 107/31/98/.283/.420/.521/10

6) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 26.3 – Tucker got considerably slower this year with his sprint speed dropping off a cliff to a well below average 26.4 ft/sec, but he still thrived on the bases with a career high 25 steals in 29 attempts. It’s a reminder that there is a lot more to base stealing than just being fast. He combines his base stealing skills with a near elite plate approach (15.6%/9.7% K%/BB%), above average exit velocity (90 MPH), and a launch made for dingers (19 degree launch with 30 homers). People have been slow to buy into Tucker’s elite status, but 2022 should cement it. 2023 Projection: 82/32/97/.271/.340/.507/21

Shadow6) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2023 Projection: 94/33/99/.270/.361/.527/18–13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

7) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, SS/OF, 24.3 – Tatis seems to have a karmic black cloud hanging over his head. He had an injured shoulder that kept popping out which he refused to get surgery for, then he fractured his wrist in a motorcycle accident, and then he got popped for a PED suspension which will keep him out 20 games into 2023. They do say bad news comes in 3’s. It does seem like he is trying to make amends now though. He agreed to get shoulder surgery and also underwent wrist surgery. The thing that worries me a little bit is that the doctors were concerned the first wrist surgery wouldn’t hold, so he had to have a 2nd one where they inserted a screw. He’s collecting enough red flags to open a Six Flags Great Adventure amusement park. Despite it all, I still find it hard to believe his best days are behind him. He’s a 24 year old elite athlete with baseball bloodlines. It would be too risk averse to sell low or write him off when the upside is something like 9 more years of elite production. I would take any discount on Tatis that I could get. 2023 Projection: 86/28/84/.273/.355/.558/19

8) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS/3B, 22.10 – Bobby Witt was the fastest man in the majors with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (actually tied for first with Jose Siri and Bubba Thompson), at least until someone by the name of Corbin Carroll showed up and put up a 30.7 mark. It led to 30 stolen bases in 37 attempts, and with the new stolen base rules, I’m hesitant to even put a ceiling on what he’s capable of in 2023. There were some swing and miss concerns prior to his debut, but he proved that won’t be an issue with an above average 21.4% K%. His power was good but not great with 20 homers in 150 games, and there is a little Cody Bellinger risk here, in that he hits the ball in the air a lot with a relatively low FB/LD EV (92.6 MPH). Witt’s 16.8 degree launch angle isn’t as extreme as Bellinger’s 20.3 degree launch, his 113.7 Max EV (top 8% of the league) was much higher than Bellinger’s 107.3 MPH Max, and I’m only expecting continued improvements from the still 22 year old Witt. He has scary high upside, and we just saw the floor. 2023 Projection: 87/26/90/.267/.331/.472/36

9) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 24.1 – Vlad gave up almost all of the gains he made in 2021. His EV dropped 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH, his launch angle dropped 5.1 degrees to 4.3 degrees, and his xwOBA dropped .069 points to .348. He’s still a beast who played in 160 games and jacked 32 homers with a 16.4% K%. He also stole a career high 8 bags. This is basically his floor, and we saw the type of year he could put up when everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 96/34/104/.282/.349/.510/5

10) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. He wasn’t worth a dollar more than $359,999,999 😉  2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

11) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 29.9 – It wasn’t Turner’s best statistical season with a 6 year low .809 OPS, a career low 27 steals, and a career worst 26.3% whiff%, but nothing was that far off from career norms. There are also zero signs that he’s slowing down with a super elite 30.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so who knows what he’ll be capable of with the new stolen base rules. There is a chance we see some truly special stolen base seasons in 2023, and Turner is in prime position to lead that charge. His move to Philadelphia doesn’t change his value at all for me. 2023 Projection: 103/23/87/.293/.344/.486/36

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 30.6 – Ramirez jammed his thumb at the end of June, which would eventually require off-season surgery, and he wasn’t the same player after that. He had a 1.039 OPS before the injury and a .766 OPS after the injury. He had his usual great year regardless with 29 homers, 20 steals, and a 139 wRC+, but his underlying numbers fell off hard with a below average 87.7 MPH EV and a barely above average .320 xwOBA. Because it is very clear what caused the drop off, and because he should have plenty of time to fully recover this off-season, I wouldn’t drop him at all in rankings. Although this is how a decline can start, with injuries piling up and maybe not healing as well, or as fast as they did when you were in your 20’s. 2023 Projection: 93/30/100/.274/.353/.519/22

13) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 25.1 – Bichette was on his way to a disappointing season before going Mach 5 in his final 42 games, slashing .386/.436/.608 with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 29/13 K/BB. He had a .716 OPS in the 117 games before that. The plate approach isn’t great (22.2%/5.9% K%/BB%), the launch angle could be better (8.5 degrees), and he’s not that fast (27.5 ft/sec sprint speed), but what he does best is smoking the ball with a 91.9/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, and that is almost the most important thing. I’ll keep betting on a 25 year old who crushes the ball with a good feel to hit and some speed. 2023 Projection: 97/27/97/.293/.340/.502/17

14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 26.5 – Devers is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He demolishes the ball with an elite 93.1 MPH EV, and his 11.3 degree launch angle is geared for both power and average. He also maintained the improved plate approach from 2021 with an 18.6%/8.1% K%/BB%. He’s that perfect combo of being young and established, plus he strikes me as the type who will be able to hit from a wheelchair, meaning I would bet on him producing well into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/29/105/.284/.348/.517/4

15) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 22.1 – Harris got a surprise call-up straight from Double-A and he hit the ground running in the majors, slashing .297/.339/.515 with 19 homers, 20 steals, and a 24.3%/4.8% K%/BB% in 114 games. He has an elite 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed and he hits the ball damn hard with a 89.5/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV. Both is GB% (56.2% vs. 45.9%) and BB% (4.8% vs. 8.7%) were much better at Double-A than in the majors, so I think it is fair to expect improvements in that area as he refines his game. It’s bonkos he was even able to do what he did as a 21 year old with 196 total AB’s in the upper minors, all at Double-A. He’s an elite dynasty asset. 2023 Projection: 93/22/79/.279/.336/.472/28

16) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 22.1 – A quad injury knocked Franco out for almost all of June and then a wrist injury which required surgery knocked him out for 2 months from early July to early September. The injuries contributed to his mediocre season with his EV tanking to 85.1 MPH after returning from the wrist injury, but it wasn’t the only reason, as he had only 5 homers in 58 games before going down with that injury. He’s simply not geared to be a power hitter at this point in his career, but he’s still so young it would be silly to cap his power upside at this point. He makes so much contact with a 9.6% K% (top 1% of the league) that he doesn’t need to have an extreme launch angle to knock a healthy amount of dingers out, and an 8.2 degree launch is far from hopeless. He also stole 8 bags in 83 games, giving hope he will be more of a mid teens guy than a 10 or under guy. It wasn’t the breakout we were hoping for, but we can’t pine for prospects to get called up in their early 20’s before their prime, and then bemoan the fact they aren’t putting up prime numbers immediately. I’m staying patient and holding strong on his ranking. 2023 Projection: 92/18/76/.292/.348/.447/16 Prime Projection: 106/24/85/.314/.378/.492/15

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

19) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 28.5 – Burnes took a step back in 2022 from super elite, to merely elite with a 2.94 ERA and 30.5%/6.4% K%/BB%. He did so while notching a career high by far 202 IP. He has a perfect mix of safety, upside, track record, and youth that no other pitcher can quite match, making him my #1 overall Dynasty pitcher. 2023 Projection: 14/2.86/.0.95/240 in 195 IP

20) Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 25.11 – McClanahan not only backed up his 2021 breakout, he went supernova, ascending to true ace status. He put up a 2.54 ERA with a 30.3%/5.8% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP. The one snag is that a shoulder injury knocked him out for a few weeks in September, and he wasn’t quite the same when he returned with a 5.21 ERA and 12/8 K/BB in his final 19 IP. I’m not really concerned because he was throwing even harder with a 97.2 MPH fastball and he faced a very tough schedule (Toronto twice and Houston twice). He might have been my top pitcher without the injury, but he’ll have to settle for #2. 2023 Projection: 13/3.05/0.99/224 in 185 IP

21) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 30.9 – Here’s how I closed out the Machado blurb in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings, “He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022”  … well, the trend held and Machado had a hell of a season with a career high 152 wRC+. I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are large forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023 (and his underlying numbers agree with a career low .338 xwOBA and 20.7% K%, which is good but not standout). 2023 Projection: 90/33/95/.281/.350/.508/8

22) Jazz Chisholm MIA, 2B, 25.2 – Chisholm’s season ended in late June with a stress fracture in his back that ended up requiring surgery. To add insult to injury, actually, to add injury to injury, he also underwent surgery in September to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee that he was playing through for most of the season. The fact he was going full breakout with a torn knee is almost more impressive than I am scared off by the knee surgery. He had 14 homers, 12 steals and a reasonable .254 BA in 60 games with strong underlying numbers to back it up (.345 xwOBA, 90.4 MPH EV, 29.2 ft/sec sprint). The back injury sounds scary, but Evan Carter had a stress fracture in his back that ended his season in 2021, and he had a great year in 2022. I can’t deny the double injury is a little concerning, and he could have actually been ranked higher without the injuries, but it’s not enough to scare me off. I would use it as a buying opportunity. 2023 Projection: 79/27/87/.248/.322/.487/18

23) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. I say “almost,” because he’s struggled vs. lefties in his career, but he’s still very young, so improvement is almost certainly coming, and it’s also a testament to how badly he decimates righties. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

24) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 22.7 – Gunnar vs. Carroll is like Witt vs. Julio all over again. Julio pulled into the clear lead this year, but you were happy with either and their values could swing back and forth their entire careers. Gunnar and Carroll are on that same path. Arizona pushed Carroll all the way up to Double-A to start the year and he responded with pure across the board domination (166 wRC+ with 20 steals in 58 games). Triple-A didn’t slow him down much at all (135 wRC+ with 11 steals in 33 games), and then last but certainly not least, he kept it going in the majors, slashing .260/.330/.500 with 4 steals, 2 homers, and a 27%/7% K%/BB% in 32 games. He’s the fastest man in baseball with a 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. His 85.8 MPH EV and .293 xwOBA isn’t optimal, and it’s the reason I have Gunnar as the #1 prospect in baseball, but I wouldn’t harp on that too much considering the guy literally had only 42 professional games under his belt coming into this year. Carroll is setting up to be an elite fantasy player. 2023 Projection: 81/18/65/.256/.332/.430/24 Prime Projection: 103/23/82/.276/.362/.474/33

25) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 29.5 – Lindor was one of my top buys in 2022, ranking him 23rd overall in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and closing his blurb by writing, “Lindor is an easy buy this off-season.” As expected, that is exactly how it played out with Lindor bouncing back to finish as the 10th best fantasy player in baseball (Razzball Player Rater). He simply did what he’s done his entire career, which is more or less be an above average player in every facet of the game. He should have a few more years of prime production left before his stolen bases dry up the deeper he gets into his 30’s as he is slowing down a little bit. 2023 Projection: 94/25/89/.263/.330/.453/17

26) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 28.4 – Alonso maintained 100% of the hit tool gains he made in 2021 with a career best 18.7% K% and .271 BA in 2022. Putting up those kind of contact numbers is scary with the kind of power he has, and it led to 40 homers. He is a perennial contender for the home run crown. 2023 Projection: 88/38/110/.268/.356/.520/4

27) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 31.8 – Panic hit the baseball world when it was announced Trout had a “rare” back injury that would require maintenance for the rest of his career, but then he returned from that injury and drilled 16 homers with a 1.056 OPS in his final 40 games. Granted, it came with a 24.3%/8.7% K%/BB%. His swing and miss was at career worst levels even before the injury with a 27.9% K% and 30.2 whiff% on the season. It’s becoming a trend as his K% was up a lot in 2021 as well. I believe we are seeing a glimpse into what the decline phase will look like. His power will thrive, but the batting average and OBP may be coming down. We already know the stolen bases have dried up completely, and that the injury risk is high too. 2023 Projection: 91/42/90/.280/.377/.605/3

28) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 26.0 – Riley locked in his status as one of the premier power hitters in baseball in 2022. His 92.5 MPH EV was in the top 4% of the league and it led to 38 homers in 159 games. A 12.9 degree launch should keep his BA high, and he continues to make plate approach gains with a career best 8.2% BB% and 27.6% whiff%. I sense he still doesn’t get quite the respect he deserves, and even this ranking might be too low. 2023 Projection: 87/34/99/.270/.346/.524/1

29) Jacob deGrom TEX, RHP, 34.10 – deGrom is 34 years old, but he is in that tier of elite athlete that could continue to play at a high level into their 40’s. Just look at Tom Brady. He’s 45 and he has 300 pound, sub 5.0 forty guys trying to take his head off. deGrom is in that super elite class, and he doesn’t have to deal with standing strong in the pocket with an unprotected blitz descending upon him. He just put up an absolutely silly 42.7%/3.3% K%/BB% with a 0.75 WHIP in 64.1 IP. Both his 2021 and 2022 have been injury shortened seasons with a UCL and shoulder injury, but I think those numbers speak to themselves as to how the arm was feeling. He could easily have another 5 elite years in the tank, and why not 10. It’s not like young pitching is really any safer, as young pitchers are arguably more risky than older guys. Use deGrom’s advanced age and injury shortened seasons to your advantage. 2023 Projection: 12/2.51/0.95/205 in 160 IP

30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 25.8 – Robert battled through a variety of injuries which conspired to tank his season. He battled Covid in late May, picked up a leg injury shortly after that, then battled lightheadedness and blurred vision in July, before a wrist injury in mid August essentially ended his season even though he tried to play through it. He still managed to have a solid season through it all, slashing .284/.319/.426 with 12 homers, 11 steals, and a 77/17 K/BB in 98 games. He took a step back in many areas (Barrel%, EV, launch, sprint speed), but the one area he didn’t take a step back in was hit tool with him putting up a career best 19.2% K%. I feel confident a fully healthy Robert will get back to doing damage as long as he gets the bat on the ball, and the fact he put up career best marks there is very encouraging to me. 2023 Projection: 88/24/91/.277/.328/.460/19

31) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 32.7 – Cole’s spin rates were just fine, which I figured would be the case with all the spin rate panic last off-season, writing in last year’s Top 1,000, “I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022.”  He did put up his worst ERA (3.50), xERA (3.31), K% (32.4%), and xwOBA (.284) since his 2018 breakout, but all of them were just barely 5 year lows. Maybe it is a sign that he is entering the beginning of his decline phase, but all of his pitches were as nasty as ever, so I’m leaning towards it just being normal variance. He’s one of the safest, if not the safest ace in baseball. 2023 Projection: 15/3.26/1.02/250 in 195 IP

32) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 27.7 – Alcantara’s 228.2 IP led all of baseball, which makes up for his relative lack of strikeouts with a not that far above average 23.4% K%. His game is weak contact with an above average 87.8 MPH EV against, groundballs with a 5.5 degree launch angle, and plus control with a 6.6% BB%. With the new shift rules, Alcantara is the type of pitcher who might take a hit from it, but I don’t think you should overthink it. He’s too good to downgrade him for it. 2023 Projection: 14/3.11/1.04/209 in 215 IP

33) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 29.10 – Nola put up a career best 5.2% BB% in 2021, and he took it to another level in 2022 with a crazy elite 3.6%, which was the 2nd best mark among qualified pitchers behind Corey Kluber (3%). The improved control didn’t impact his ability to miss bats (29.1% K%) or induce weak contact (87.7 MPH EV) at all. It led to a 3.25 ERA with a 235/29 K/BB in 205 IP. His 4.63 ERA from 2021 made him an easy buy call and he unsurprisingly bounced right back. 2023 Projection: 14/3.38/0.99/227 in 195 IP

34) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 30.2 – Woodruff was diagnosed with Raynaud’s Syndrome in June, but the diagnoses sounded scarier than the reality as he returned no worse for the wear. His 31.1% whiff% was actually a career best on the back of his changeup taking a step forward with a 54% whiff%. He had his usual elite season with a 3.05 ERA and 30.6%/6.8% K%/BB% in 153.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.18/1.04/210 in 175 IP

35) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 27.3 – Cease has everything but control. He has filthy stuff (96.8 MPH fastball), big K rates (30.4% K%), and induces weak contact (86.8 EV against). The 10.4% BB% adds more risk than the aces ranked above him, and it results in his WHIP being relatively on the high side (1.11). He still put up a 2.20 ERA (2.70 xERA) with the high walk rate, but we’ve seen guys who struggle with control have very inconsistent careers. I’m not scared off by it, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind. 2023 Projection: 14/3.29/1.15/228 in 185 IP

36) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 24.5 – Strider’s 38.3% K% was only bested amongst starters by deGrom’s stupid 42.7% K%. It also leads all starters in the history of baseball on the career leaderboard. Clearly it’s a small sample size (131.2 IP), and there is no decline phase which every other retired pitcher has factored in, but it shows the type of insane upside Strider has. He’s mostly a 2 pitch pitcher with a 98.2 MPH fastball and an elite slider that put up a 52.5% whiff%, but the changeup was elite too when he went to it with a .154 xwOBA and 47.5% whiff% (4.8% usage). He doesn’t have control issues either with an about average 8.5% BB%. I named him one of my top mid-season trade targets in late June, essentially calling him the 2022 version of Shane McClanahan, and his value has only skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.15/1.09/242 in 170 IP

37) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 33.7 – Freeman is an all fields hitter whose homer power was most certainly impacted by the dead ball, hitting an 8 year low (on a per game basis) 21 homers, but not being reliant on homers helped him overcome the ball in general with an elite .403 xwOBA (3rd best overall). He might be the most consistent elite hitter in the game. He also stole a career high 13 bags and has yet to show signs of losing speed. He certainly has the potential to produce deep into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 112/28/97/.306/.398/.515/11

38) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 28.11 – Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world. The guy is an elite hitter with a .372 xwOBA which was in the top 4% of the league. He has double plus contact rates with a 15.5% K%, he crushes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV, and his 13.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average. He jacked a career high 33 homers this year and while it came with a .245 BA, a lot of that was bad luck with a career low by far .242 BABIP. While I don’t think the new shift rules will have a major impact in general, Seager could be the type of hitter it helps out a little bit. If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all. 2023 Projection: 90/30/90/.280/.350/.505/2

39) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 28.1 – Arozarena continues to defy the Statcast gods, handily outperforming his underlying numbers for the 4th year in a row. He put up a .336 wOBA vs. .301 xwOBA. Being very fast (28.8 ft/sec sprint) and hitting the ball hard (89.9 MPH EV) on a line (8.8 degree launch angle) seems to be the formula to get “lucky.” Luck is the residue of design. He made real contact gains with a career best 28.6% whiff%. It all led to 20 homers, 32 steals, and a .263 BA. Arozarena also seems perfectly positioned to take advantage of the new pick off rules as a young, fast, liberal base stealer. The poor underlying numbers gives me a enough pause to not rank him higher than this, but I also think this ranking shows I’m a believer. 2023 Projection: 80/18/80/.258/.330/.440/30

40) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 28.6 – Mullins had one of the best “disappointing” seasons ever with 16 homers and 34 steals, finishing 27th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. He couldn’t come close to matching his 2021 power breakout, and while the dead ball certainly played a big role, it was very obviously a career year that he is unlikely to repeat. Like Arozarena, Mullins has outperformed his underlying statcast numbers his entire career (.328 career wOBA vs. .303 xwOBA), so I wouldn’t panic too much over the very poor .288 xwOBA in 2022, but speed is most certainly the skill you are buying here. 2023 Projection: 87/20/70/.266/.328/.437/36

41) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 26.3 – Albies season effectively ended in mid June from a broken foot. He returned in mid September only to break his pinky his 2nd game back. Sometimes you just can’t catch a break. Or maybe it was a blessing in disguise as he was in the midst of a pretty bad year with a poor 87.1 MPH EV, .297 xwOBA, and 27.5 ft/sec sprint speed. He had only 8 homers, 3 steals, and a .703 OPS in 64 games. The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good. 2023 Projection: 88/25/86/.263/.318/.466/14

42) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 25.3 – Manoah proved his 4-seamer dominating MLB hitters was no fluke in his 2021 rookie year, backing it up in 2022 with the pitch putting up a negative 19 run value (6th best overall). All 4 of his pitches were firmly above average to plus, and he fired them with plus control (6.5% BB%). He also proved he is a workhorse with 196.2 IP. The swing and miss rates were only average (22.9% K%), and his xERA was much better than his ERA (3.31 xERA vs. 2.24 ERA), but that feels like nitpicking considering he finished the season as the 4th best fantasy pitcher. 2023 Projection: 15/3.15/1.03/188 in 190 IP

43) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 27.10 – Bieber’s fastball tanked to 91.3 MPH from a high of 94.1 MPH in 2020, which validated the concerns over his strained shoulder coming into the year, but it turned out he doesn’t need the huge fastball to be elite. He put up a pitching line of 2.88/1.04/198/36 in 200 IP. Bieber’s velocity ticked up relatively later in his career, so he already knew how to pitch with a low 90’s fastball, and that was obvious with him compensating by becoming an even more elite control guy with a 4.6% BB%. The underlying numbers didn’t look as good with a 3.51 xERA, but many, many pitchers this year outdid their xERA, so the dead ball probably messed with the numbers a little bit. I’m expecting the balls to be less dead next year, but your guess is as good as mine. The new shift rules will regress some of that BABIP luck as well. 2023 Projection: 14/3.28/1.10/205 in 190 IP

44) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 27.8 – An injury marred 2021 had Gallen’s price depressed last off-season, and he rewarded his believers with the best season of his career in 2022, putting up a pitching line of 2.54/0.91/192/47 in 184 IP. He did it on the back of improved control with his BB% dropping 2.8 percentage points to a career best 6.6%, and also increased velocity with is 4-seamer up 0.7 MPH to a career best 94.1 MPH. The only quibble is that his swing and miss is on the decline with a below average, career worst 23% whiff%, but in the context of all the other improvements he made, I wouldn’t be too concerned. Plus his K% was still above average at 26.9%. I would hesitate to put Gallen into that true ace tier, but he’s in the tier right below that one. 2023 Projection: 14/3.21/1.08/195 in 185 IP

45) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 26.8 – I feel like I’ve been the high guy on Urias since 2019, and continually pushing him up my ranks paid off yet again (37th overall in 2022) with him putting up a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/166/41 in 175 IP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he’s a weak contact machine with a 86.7 MPH EV against. He’s never had a mark over 87.1 MPH in his 7 year career. He combines that with near elite control with a 6% BB%, and he should continue to rack up wins on the Dodgers. 2023 Projection: 15/3.17/1.00/174 in 178 IP

Shadow45) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP, 28.9 – This is where I would take Ohtani as a pitcher only. I didn’t think Ohtani would ever throw 166 innings in a single season, and with how much pitchers get restricted these days, that is almost a full workload. 2023 Projection: 13/2.94/1.03/199 in 161 IP

46) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 26.4 – Jimenez went down with a hamstring injury just 11 games into the season, but he returned a man on fire, not only reestablishing himself as one of the premier young power hitters in the game, but also taking his game to the next level. He notched career bests in EV (92.8 MPH), xwOBA (.365), K% (22%), and BB% (8.6%). It led to a slash of .295/..358/.500 with 16 homers in 84 games. His 7.4 degree launch angle isn’t necessarily geared for homers, but it will keep his BA high and he crushes the ball so hard he doesn’t need a huge launch to rack up dingers. The improved plate approach is also a great sign that we could be in store for a monster season in 2023. I’m buying. 2023 Projection: 82/32/95/.274/.337/.512/0

47) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 26.0 – There is a starter logjam in Houston (less so at the moment with Verlander leaving town), but I highly doubt one of the smartest teams in baseball leave one of the best starters in the game out of their rotation. And one of the best starters in the game is exactly what Javier is with a 2.54 ERA and 33.2%/8.9% K%/BB% in 148.2 IP. He doesn’t throw gas with a 93.8 MPH 4-seamer, but it was the 10th most valuable 4-seamer in baseball, and his elite slider put up a .175 xwOBA (5th best overall with min 100 PA). Maybe it means Houston goes to a 6 man rotation, but I would be blown away if he isn’t in it. I named him one of my top 10 mid-season trade targets in late June, and his value has skyrocketed since then. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.08/215 in 170 IP

48) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 25.2 – Kirby dominated in his MLB debut with elite control (4.1% BB%) of a legitimate 6 pitch mix (4-seam, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, change). He threw each pitch at least 8% of the time, but the fastball is the money maker, throwing it 45.4% of the time and putting up a negative 18 run value on it, which was the 9th best in baseball. It led to a pitching line of 3.39/1.21/133/22 in 130 IP. As advertised from his prospect days, none of his secondaries are true out pitches, and his 24.5% K% isn’t standout (21.2% whiff% is well below average), but that is one hell of a rookie season. 2023 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/178 in 170 IP

49) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 30.4 – Castillo went from the 2nd worst pitcher’s park in baseball to the very best at the trade deadline, and while his numbers didn’t take a jump, it was only because he was already in the midst of having his best season in Cincinnati. It was the first year of his career with a sub 3.00 ERA, granted just barely with a 2.99 ERA in 150.1 IP. His season was delayed by a shoulder issue, but he looked completely healthy with a 97.1 MPH fastball, and his K% bounced back from a down 2021 with a 27.2% K%. The move to Seattle cements his status as a near ace. 2023 Projection: 14/3.37/1.09/203 in 180 IP

50) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 24.6 – Cruz is the highest risk, highest reward player in fantasy, and as you can tell from this ranking, I’m betting on the reward. He has truly elite speed with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed (top 2%), stealing 11 bags in 87 games. He smokes the ball with a 91.9/97.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, which basically makes him launch angle proof, and an 8.3 degree launch isn’t that bad, leading to 17 homers. It should also help keep his batting average from completely falling off the face of the Earth, because the guy has a wee bit of a strikeout problem with a 34.8% K% and 35.4% whiff% (.233 BA). I like to take strategic risks in fantasy (if you can’t take risks in fantasy, when can you take risks?), and I’m betting on that K rate coming down because his strikeout rates in the minors really weren’t all that bad. I remember when Aaron Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his MLB debut and everyone got scared off, but I didn’t get scared off, and I’m not getting scared off Cruz either. 2023 Projection: 76/27/84/.244/.316/24 Prime Projection: 86/32/99/.258/.337/.512/26

51) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 19.1 – Chourio is on that Acuna/Tatis superstar path, where they didn’t necessarily put up elite plate approach numbers on the come up, but they were so young for the level and the talent is so huge it doesn’t really matter. Chourio had a generational type season, making it all the way to Double-A as an 18 year old to close out the year. Milwaukee knew they had something special, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball, and they were proven right with him destroying Single-A with a 160 wRC+. He then went to High-A and actually improved his K% with it dropping 6.2 percentage points to 21.8%. He got eaten up in 6 games at Double-A with a 42.3% K%, but I wouldn’t even blink an eye at that. He’s an electric ballplayer with a lightning quick, powerful swing to go along with at least plus speed. Now is the time in a superstar’s career where dynasty mistakes are made. Don’t sell Chourio for anything less than an elite return. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/29/96/.276/.351/.502/16

52) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. 2023 Projection: 48/14/45/.243/.318/.435/18 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21 Update: His brilliant play in Spring could force the Yankees hand to have him break camp with the team, but that is still far from a guarantee

53) Jordan Walker STL, 3B/OF, 20.11 – Nobody smashes the ball as hard as the 6’5”, 220 pound Walker. One thing we don’t have to worry about is him getting to the majors and putting up like an 84 MPH EV. He’s gonna hit it hard. He was a 20 year old at Double-A and ripped 19 homers with 31 doubles in 119 games, good for a 128 wRC+. He then wrecked the AFL with 5 homers, 6 doubles, and a .925 OPS in 21 games. He has some swing and miss in his game, but it’s far from the danger zone with a 21.6%/10.8% K%/BB%, and he has plus speed with 22 steals, although considering his size, you might not want to count on him majorly in that category. He started to transition to the OF, which gives him a path to playing time with Arenado locked in at 3B. He’s my 3rd overall prospect in the Points/6+Category/OPS “Universal” Dynasty Rankings which devalues speed and juices up power , and like Volpe, his complete destruction of spring will make it hard for St. Louis to send him down. 2023 Projection: 64/21/69/.251/.326/.461/10 Prime Projection: 92/33/105/.267/.346/.513/12

54) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 29.2 – Fried’s control went from plus to elite with a 4.4% BB%, and it led to the best year of his career with a pitching line of 2.48/1.01/170/32 in 185.1 IP. I’ve noticed many guys with good control took it to another level in 2022, and I suspect it’s because they were less afraid to attack the plate with the dead ball. The balls may be less dead in 2022 (or may not be), but it’s not like Fried isn’t damn good with a “regular” ball, and he improved his arsenal this year by making his changeup a legitimate 5th pitch. He threw it a career high 14.1% and it put up an excellent .207 xwOBA with a 36.7% whiff%. He now has 5 pitches that range from above average to elite. A big K rate is the only thing missing. 2023 Projection: 14/3.00/1.07/170 in 180 IP

55) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 32.10 – Wheeler battled some shoulder soreness before the season, and a forearm injury kept him out for a month in August/September. It resulted in a small drop in velocity, but he had plenty of velocity to spare with it dropping 1.3 MPH to a still excellent 95.9 MPH. It also didn’t result in any performance decline as his elite control (5.6% BB%) and weak contact (85.9 MPH EV against) profile led to a 2.82 ERA with a 163/34 K/BB in 153 IP. He also dominated the playoffs with a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 IP. 2023 Projection: 14/3.08/1.05/199 in 185 IP

56) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 35.7 – Maybe I’m doing too much of “I told you to buy this guy and then he exploded after that,” but I put so much time into this and I’m proud of my hits. And I’ve genuinely hit on a ton of guys (I have misses too like Grandal, Tork, Giolito, and Nestor Cortes, among others). Goldy was my top mid-season trade target in late June of 2021, and since then he literally flipped a switch and turned back into an elite performer. His huge 2021 2nd half continued into 2022 where Goldy put up a 177 wRC+ in 151 games. He overperformed the underlying numbers by a good bit (.419 wOBA vs. .367 xwOBA), but his xwOBA was still in the top 5% of the league. He’s 35 now and I don’t think you can expect this level of production for much longer, but you can’t let an elite bat like this fall much further than this, even in a dynasty league. 2023 Projection: 95/32/99/.291/.390/.522/8

57) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 32.3 – It turns out that Gausman didn’t turn to dust with his move from San Francisco to Toronto, putting up a pitching line of 3.35/1.24/205/28 in 174.2 IP. His 3.9% BB% and 3.34 xERA were both career bests. His elite splitter was tied for the 2nd most valuable splitter in baseball with Taijuan Walker, and behind my boy Tony Gonsolin. 2023 Projection: 13/3.48/1.16/210 in 180 IP

58) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 32.0 – Arenado put up a .381 wOBA vs. a .339 xwOBA, but he’s outperformed his xwOBA every year of his career, so I don’t think it means much. It’s because he doesn’t exactly crush the ball with an average-ish 88.7 MPH EV, but he obviously doesn’t exert himself an inch more than is needed as he slashed .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and a 72/52 K/BB in 148 games. His 11.6% K% was the 2nd best mark of his career. 2023 Projection: 83/32/100/.277/.341/.510/3

59) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 32.11 – Altuve started running again out of nowhere and stole 18 bags in 19 attempts. Good luck trying to predict steals, and that goes doubly for 2023 with the new rules. His power was unaffected by the dead ball with 28 homers, even though his 85.9 MPH EV was a career low. He’s been pulling the ball in the air more than ever these past 2 seasons, and pulled flyballs were least affected by the dead balls. He also notched a career best 10.9% BB% as the cherry on top. 2023 Projection: 69/18/51/.288/.364/.490/10 Update: Broke his thumb in the WBC and will be out until May/June

60) Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 30.4 – All of the injury concern this off-season proved to be for naught as Rodon notched a career high 178 IP, and he only got stronger as the season progressed. He ended up with a pitching line of 2.88/1.03/237/52. His fastball averaged a career high 95.5 MPH and he decided to almost completely ditch his changeup which got destroyed in 2021. Throwing your good pitches more and your bad pitches less is sometimes presented as like some kind of genius revolutionary idea, but it is the most common sense thing in the world. Rodon is straight elite when healthy, and I’m not sure it’s fair to give him all that much of an injury downgrade at this point. Even this ranking could be too cautious. 2023 Projection: 11/3.02/1.05/188 in 150 IP Update: Rodon went down with an elbow strain, but he’s already starting throwing again and his elbow “felt good.” It seems like he should be able to return April and avoid a major injury, but it certainly does add a bit more risk

61) Joe Musgrove SDP, RHP, 30.4 – Musgrove throws a 6 pitch mix and all 6 pitches put up an above average xwOBA against. It led to a career best 2.93 ERA in 181 IP. Pitching to contact was all the rage this year, and Musgrove is a man of the times with his BB% dropping 1.5 percentage points to 5.7%, inducing tons of weak contact with a 86.4 MPH EV against. His K% went down with it, dropping 2.2 percentage points to 24.9%, but like I’ve mentioned, it seemed to be a conscious choice with the dead balls. 2023 Projection: 11/3.37/1.11/168 in 160 Update: Musgrove fractured his toe in a weight room accident and there is no timetable for his return. He was expected to begin throwing again in mid March, so it doesn’t seem like it should keep him out for too long, but who knows

62) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

63) Tommy Edman STL, 2B/SS, 27.11 – Edman’s power ticked up in his age 27 season with a career best 88.6 MPH EV and 6.2% Barrel%. It led to 13 homers and a .725 OPS, which is a bit of a bummer if that is the best he can do, but taking into account the dead ball it was good for a 108 wRC+. What you’re buying here is stolen bases, and Edman is an elite base stealer with 32 steals in 35 attempts. He’s perfectly set up to take advantage of the new stolen base rules. 2023 Projection: 88/14/59/.271/.325/.405/35

64) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 21.3 – Elly De La Cruz might still be a high risk, high reward prospect, but in 2022 the risk got a whole lot less, and the reward got a whole lot more. He put up one of the those stupid good seasons in the minors, slashing .304/.359/.586 with 28 homers, 47 steals, and a 30.8%/7.8% K%/BB% in 120 games split between High-A and Double-A. He ripped up both levels, and most importantly, he didn’t let his K% skyrocket at Double-A. He’s currently playing in the pitcher’s haven Dominican Winter League, which is a grown man’s league (he’s about 8 years younger than average), and it’s great sign that he’s running a 26.7%/15.8% K%/BB% in 101 PA. It sure seems like he will be able to continue to improve the plate approach rather than it going in the opposite direction. The numbers he can potentially put up at Great American Ballpark are scary. 2023 Projection: 32/11/35/.232/.294/.433/12 Prime Projection: 87/30/98/.250/.331/.503/30

65) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 20.8 – Lawlar left everyone from his 2021 FYPD class in the dust in 2022. He slashed .303/.401/.509 with 16 homers, 39 steals, and a 25.1%/12.4% K%/BB% in 100 games split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He only had a 65 wRC+ in 20 games at Double-A but he jacked 4 homers and his plate approach didn’t completely collapse or anything (28.9%/10.3%). It was impressive he made it all the way to Double-A at all. He then destroyed the AFL with a .997 OPS in 11 games. He has a smooth and simple righty swing that is geared for power and average to go along with plus speed. He’s an elite prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 92/24/86/.270/.348/.470/26

66) Max Scherzer NYM, RHP, 38.9 – Scherzer showed zero signs of decline in 2022 when on the mound. He put up a 2.29 ERA with a 30.6%/4.2% K%/BB% in 145.1 IP. The K’s were down slightly, but that was a trend around the league. The only way age reared it’s ugly head was with durability. He battled an oblique injury which led to career low in IP (other than his rookie year and 2020), and he hasn’t been able to surpass 179.1 IP since 2018. Don’t count on huge innings totals, but all signs point to him continuing to be elite. You deserve an elite prospect for him if you’re selling in dynasty. 2023 Projection: 14/2.98/0.98/209 in 175 IP

67) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 29.5 – Valdez was born to do one thing, and that thing is killing worms. He throws a 5 pitch mix and all 5 pitches induce grounders. His negative 3.6 degree launch angle is bested only by Clay Holmes’ ridiculous negative 8.1 degree launch. His 93.9 MPH sinker, which he goes to almost half the time, is his money maker, but his curveball, cutter, and changeup all graded out to almost elite when he went to them with a .202, .200, and .222 xwOBA against, respectively. He proved his walk rate won’t be a major issue with a 8.1% BB% and he also proved his durability with 201.1 IP. He’s not a true fantasy ace because he doesn’t rack up K’s and his WHIP’s are on the high side, but he’s in the tier right under that. 2023 Projection: 15/3.29/1.18/185 in 188 IP

68) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 29.0 – Olson wasn’t able to maintain the BA and strikeout gains he made in 2021 with his K% jumping back up 7.5 percentage points to 24.3% and his batting average tanking to .240. The power was no problemo though with him jacking 34 homers with an elite 92.9 MPH EV (top 3%). He’s one of the premier power hitters in the game, but the hope he could consistently marry the power with a high BA has dissipated. 2023 Projection: 88/35/105/.250/.340/.506/2

69) Dansby Swanson CHC, SS, 29.2 – Swanson’s power continues to tick up, beating the dead ball back with a stick (literally), smacking 25 homers with a career best 90.2 MPH and 15.7 degree launch. He also ran more than ever with 18 steals in 25 attempts. He needed BABIP luck (.348 BABIP) to notch a .277 BA as his plate approach remains average to below average with a 26.1%/7.0% K%/BB%, and with him landing in Chicago (8th worst park for righties), I would expect that BA to come down. 2023 Projection: 81/26/88/.260/.327/.452/14

70) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.10 – O’Neill wasn’t able to back up his 2021 breakout with a .700 OPS in 96 games battling a variety of injuries throughout the year, but I only look at it as a buying opportunity. He matured at the plate with a career best 26.9% K% and career best 9.9% BB%. His .331 xwOBA was much better than his .307 wOBA. The power/speed combo was still beastly with a 96.1 MPH FB/LD EV and 29.8 ft/sec sprint. He’s setting up for a monster 2023 and there is now a buying opportunity you should jump all over. 2023 Projection: 81/29/89/.254/.326/.492/18

71) Vinnie Pasquantino KCR, 1B, 25.6 – Vinnie “old for the level” Pasquantino ain’t old for the level anymore. He dominated MLB pitching with a 91.2 MPH EV, 11.4%/11.7% K%/BB%, and an elite .374 xwOBA. The surface stats were damn good too, slashing .295/.383/.450 with 10 homers in 72 games. There’s no question he’s the real deal. The only question is how much over the fence power he will hit for. The 12.1 degree launch and 92 MPH FB/LD EV could limit his power more to the 20+ range than 30+ range, but it’s perfect for hitting for a high average, and he could easily raise that a few degrees in the future. I would consider him a buy high. He won’t come for cheap, but I wouldn’t mind paying up as I think his value is only going up. 2023 Projection: 82/24/85/.282/.371/.470/2

72) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 25.2 – Rutschman stepped into the majors and immediately turned Baltimore into winners. He didn’t get called up until late May and his 5.3 WAR was still the 2nd best catcher mark in the majors (JT Realmuto was 1st with a 6.5 WAR). His 133 wRC+ was the 4th best overall. It’s a hell of a MLB debut, and as much as I want to go crazy for Rutschman, I would pump the brakes slightly in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never really been a monster home run hitter with 13 homers in 113 games, and while his 87.9/93 MPH AVG/FB EV is solid, it’s not like he was smashing the ball. In an OBP league or in 6+ categories, by all means go crazy for his elite plate approach (18.3%/13.8% K%/BB%) and .362 OBP. Having said that, I still like him a lot in 5×5 BA as his 15.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average, and his counting stats should be elite for a catcher. There are a lot of really talented catcher prospects in the pipeline behind Rutschman, but Rutschman is leading the pack as my #1 catcher for Dynasty Baseball no matter what the league categories are. 2023 Projection: 86/22/78/.266/.374/.465/5

73) James Wood WAS, OF, 20.6 – Wood was one of my top 2022 FYPD targets and I was able to scoop him in my 18 team First Year Player Draft that I broke down last off-season on Patreon. He surpassed even my expectations as he played like a man amongst boys at 6’7”, 240 pounds, slashing .313/.420/.536 with 12 homers, 20 steals, and a 21.6%/14.4% K%/BB% in 76 games at Single-A. He absolutely smashes the ball and he proved his hit tool isn’t a major red flag, to say the least, it might actually be an asset. Wood is a unicorn athlete in the mold of an Aaron Judge and Oneil Cruz. He’s in the “untouchable” category for me. I’m not trading him. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.262/.355/.513/14

74) Andres Gimenez CLE, 2B/SS, 24.7 – Gimenez is the less hyped, discount version of Michael Harris. He’s lightning fast (29.3 ft/sec speed), with a poor plate approach (20.1%/6.1% K%/BB%) and a plus hit tool (.297 BA). He put up a 140 wRC+ with 17 homers and 20 steals in 146 games. He outperformed the underlying numbers with a .364 wOBA vs. .326 xwOBA, but Statcast seems to have a blind spot for this type of hitter. Good things tend to happen when super fast guys get the ball on the ball with a line drive/ground ball approach and hit the ball hard enough. Gimenez has outperformed his underlying numbers 3 years in a row. His 87.8 MPH EV is below average, but it’s a career high and there could be more power coming as he enters his mid 20’s. 2023 Projection: 82/18/71/.274/.338/.432/25

75) Marcus Semien TEX, SS/2B 32.7 – Semien started the season ice cold with a .432 OPS in his first 34 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .272/.325/.486 with 26 homers, 23 steals, and a 94/42 K/BB in his final 127 games. Everything was back to career norms by the 2nd half of the season and he actually stole a career high by far 25 bags. It’s a good sign that he doesn’t plan on slowing down on the bases as we enter the new stolen base era. There should be a few more years in the tank of plus power/speed numbers. 2023 Projection: 92/28/81/.251/.319/.467/18

76) Tyler Glasnow TBR, RHP, 29.8 – Glasnow returned from Tommy John surgery just in time to show everyone he is back to being elite, going 11.2 IP with a 15/0 K/BB and 1 ER, including the playoffs. The fastball sat 97.4 MPH and the 38.5%/7.7% K%/BB% shows the whiffs and control were in prime form. Durability is the biggest factor with him never throwing more than 111.2 IP in the majors, and the injury bug has already reared it’s ugly head. He strained his oblique and is expected to miss at least the first month of the season. It’s better than an arm injury, but oblique injuries can linger and be tricky themselves. 2023 Projection: 9/3.38/1.12/157 in 130 IP

77) Logan Webb SFG, LHP, 26.4 – Webb put up a career high 192.1 IP and a career low 2.90 ERA, but I still struggle to really go all in on him (obviously I like him a ton, just relatively). His sinker velocity dropped 1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his K% dropped 5.8 percentage points to a well below average 20.7%, and his whiff% dropped 4.7% to 24%. He has plus control with a 6.2% BB%, he keeps on the ball on the ground with a 3.1 degree launch, so he’s a safe bet, but I think his 3.50 xERA is closer to his true talent level, especially with the new shift rules coming. 2023 Projection: 13/3.38/1.18/173 in 185 IP

78) Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 14/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

79) Blake Snell SDP, LHP, 30.4 – I ranked Snell 87th overall in the 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings and wrote, “Robbie Ray is a good reminder to never give up on strikeout machines with control problems.” That ended up being prescient as Snell put up a pitching line of 3.38/1.20/171/51 in 128 IP. He proved his 2021 BB% spike (12.5%) was an aberration, bringing it back down to a reasonable 9.5%, and he continued to be a K machine with a 32% K%. A groin injury delayed the start of his season until mid May, but it was smooth sailing after that. He’ll be a target of mine again this off-season after that first tier of pitchers go off the board. 2023 Projection: 10/3.33/1.20/191 in 155 IP

80) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 25.8 – Here’s how I closed out my Triston McKenzie write-up in my 2022 Top 1,000 Rankings, “The bloated ERA and out of character 1st half control problems makes him an excellent buy low candidate in 2022.” As I predicted, the 2021 control problems proved to be an aberration with him bringing it all the way down to 5.9%, and it led to a breakout season with a pitching line of 2.96/0.95/190/44 in 191.1 IP. He’s a string bean at 6’5” who’s had his durability questioned throughout his career, so seeing him throw 191.1 innings is a big deal. A few things are keeping me from going absolutely crazy for him. His fastball only sits 92.5 MPH and he throws it a lot with a 55.9% usage. The problem is that it is very hittable with a 91.2 EV against. His curveball is silly elite with a .165 xwOBA and 45% whiff%, but the slider took a step back with a .311 xwOBA and 27% whiff%. And he completely ditched his changeup. His 3.54 xERA is probably more accurate to his true talent level. Regardless, McKenzie is a blossoming young ace who could easily take yet another step forward in 2023. 2023 Projection: 13/3.44/1.10/185 in 180 IP

81) Will Smith LAD, C, 28.0 – Lost in all the young catcher hub bub is how good Will Smith continues to be. He has an elite plate approach with a 16.6%/9.7% K%/BB%, he hits the ball in the air with a 18.4 degree launch, and he hits the ball hard with an 89.9 MPH EV. His .352 xwOBA was 2nd to only Willson Contreras among qualified catchers. He also got 77 extra PA with the NL adding the DH. He’s bound to have a monster career year at some point, and it could come in his age 28 year old season. 2023 Projection: 75/27/86/.266/.358/.482/2

82) Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 24.5 – Kirk’s launch angle dropped from 14.7 degrees in 2021 to 8.1 degrees in 2022, and it really put a damper on his power with only 14 homers in 139 games. He has an otherworldly plate approach with a 10.7%/11.6% K%/BB% and he smacks the ball with a 90.5 MPH EV, so even as is those 14 homers probably represent his floor. If he can split the difference between his 2021 and 2022 launch, he could put up some truly monster seasons as he enters his prime. The one negative is that he has truly zero speed, really negative speed with a horrific 24.1 ft/sec sprint, and that does ding his value as the catcher position is set to get an influx of young, athletic talent. 2023 Projection: 68/20/81/.280/.365/.453/0

83) J.T. Realmuto PHI, C, 32.0 – Realmuto went bonkos on the base paths in 2022 with a career high 21 steals in 22 attempts. He’s a 32 year old catcher who has caught 914 games in his career and he hasn’t lost even a half step with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. He also put up arguably his best year offensively, and overall too, with a career best 128 wRC+ and 6.5 WAR. He’s considerably older than the other top dynasty catchers in the game, but his production warrants the high ranking. On a win now team, he has an argument to be the top dog at the catcher position. 2023 Projection: 73/21/82/.273/.345/.468/15

84) Kyle Schwarber PHI, OF, 30.1 – Schwarber bashed a career high 46 homers on the back of a career high 19.2 degree launch angle. He smashes the ball with a 93.3 MPH EV and it’s now the 2nd year in a row his xwOBA’s have been in the truly elite tier with a .399 xwOBA in 2021 and .375 xwOBA in 2022. He also stole a career high 10 bases, and while you can’t count on that again, it gives hope he won’t be a zero in that category. He’s a major batting average risk with a 29.9% K% and .218 BA, but some of that was due to bad luck (.237 xBA) and a 29% whiff% actually isn’t all that bad, so I wouldn’t be concerned with it really falling off a cliff. 2023 Projection: 92/38/89/.233/.339/.510/5

85) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

86) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 29.10 – I’m a tad concerned about how Anderson’s profile is going to age. He’s never really refined his game, relying on his innate hitting ability and speed. He’s still fast, but he has slowed a bit with a 76.4 percentile sprint speed rank (91.6% at peak), and if the bat starts to slow a bit he doesn’t have a strong plate approach to fall back on (4% BB%). It seemed like his power might have been ticking up, but it fell back this year with a below average 5.8% Barrel% and 3.3 degree launch. He should have a few more years of strong production, but I wouldn’t count on him keeping up this level of fantasy production too deep into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 89/18/60/.296/.332/.433/23

87) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 26.10 – A shoulder strain knocked Peralta out for over 2 months in the middle of the season, and when he returned he just wasn’t the same. He had a very un Peralta like 36 K’s in 39.1 IP in August and September. He also had to miss some time in September with shoulder soreness and needed his innings limited. His velocity took a hit with it down 0.8 MPH to 92.6 MPH, although in his final start of the year it was back up to where it was in 2021. He’s a major risk headed into 2022. The upside is so high when he’s healthy, you don’t want to completely write him off, but I would hesitate to value him at his ceiling. I would need a discount to go after Peralta. 2023 Projection: 10/3.41/1.11/168 in 145 IP

88) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 25.4 – Gilbert’s profile is very similar to Kirby’s, except slightly worse. He also has excellent control (6.4% BB%) of a heavily used 96.1 MPH fastball (53.9% usage). He put up a negative 12 run value on the pitch which was 25th overall. It led to a pitching line of 3.20/1.18/174/49 in 185.2 IP. None of his secondaries are truly standout, and while his changeup performed the best, he only went to it 8% of the time. The biggest red flag is that his stuff is mighty hittable with a 91 MPH EV against (bottom 3% of the league) and 118 MPH Max EV against (bottom 1%). His 4.11 xERA was much worst than his 3.20 ERA. K/BB numbers are still king at the end of the day, and his control will ensure a good WHIP even if the ERA rises. I would also bet on improvements to his secondaries as he already tinkered with his slider this year, throwing it 3.5 MPH faster. 2023 Projection: 13/3.58/1.16/187 in 190 IP

89) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 25.6 – A forearm injury knocked Luzardo out from May 10th to August 1st, and it must have rejiggered his elbow because he returned with much improved control. He put up a 3.03 ERA with a 79/19 K/BB in 71.1 IP post injury (16 walks in 29 IP pre injury). It’s like the movie Rookie of the Year except instead of adding insane velocity, he added improved control. He already had the filthy stuff in his bag with a 96.3 MPH fastball, a plus curveball that put up a 41.3% whiff%, a plus changeup that put up a 44.9% whiff%, and a sinker that kept the ball out of the air with a 8 degree launch angle. Put simply, he turned into a true ace in 2022 (albeit in a smaller sample with injury risk), and is the perfect pitcher to target in startup drafts if you pass on the more established, higher priced aces. 2023 Projection: 11/3.49/1.17/173 in 150 IP

90) Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 25.2 – I implored my Patreon members to go out and buy Lodolo (along with Strider and Javier) while he was on the IL in my Top 10 Mid-Season Trade Targets back in June, and then breakout came shortly after that. He put up a 3.35 ERA with a 112/34 K/BB in 88.2 IP after touting him (5.52 ERA in 14.2 IP previously). His curveball is the money maker with a .220 xwOBA and 46% whiff%, and the bat missing 94.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either with a 27.6% whiff%. He rounds out the repertoire with a groundball inducing sinker and changeup. He’s an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’6” with a Randy Johnson-esque side arm lefty delivery. Injuries and Great American Ballpark are the only things that can hold him back. 2023 Projection: 10/3.48/1.18/175 in 150 IP

91) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 23.8 – It felt like I was the only one who believed in Greene for a little while there, naming him a player to target in my Top 13 Early Off-Season Targets in September, and while his late season dominance chipped into some of that value, I still think there is a buying opportunity. He closed the season out with a 1.02 ERA and 51/8 K/BB in his final 35.1 IP. He throws a swing and miss 98.3 MPH fastball (28.3% whiff%) with a plus slider (.245 xwOBA). It was good for a 4.44 ERA (4.00 xERA) and a 30.9%/9.0% K%/BB% in 125.2 IP on the season, which is a damn good rookie year. A shoulder injury knocked out one and a half months of his season, and his lightly used changeup got hit up, but he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. Use the inflated ERA to buy while you still can. 2023 Projection: 10/3.65/1.20/188 in 160 IP

92) Justin Verlander NYM, RHP, 40.1 – Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery at 39 years old and got right back to dominating. In fact, he was never better with a career best 1.75 ERA in 175 IP. The fastball sat 95 MPH and he had zero rust to shake off in regards to control with an elite 4.4% BB%. His 24.2% whiff% and 27.8% K% were down considerably from prime form, but almost every pitcher was pitching more towards contact with the dead ball, and clearly it didn’t impact his production. He’s why I’m so gung ho about not discounting deGrom and Scherzer too much because of their age. The elite of the elite arms can hang until their 40’s, even overcoming major surgery in the process. 2023 Projection: 16/2.89/0.95/198 in 180 IP

93) Robbie Ray SEA, LHP, 31.6 – Ray didn’t maintain all of his control gains from 2021, but he maintained most of them with a slightly above average 8% BB%. His 3.59 xERA was actually just a hair better than 2021’s 3.60 xERA. His K% dropped 4.7 percentage points to 27.4%, his fastball dropped 1.4 MPH to 93.4 MPH, and his ERA rose considerably to 3.71, so he certainly wasn’t as good as 2021, but he also proved the breakout wasn’t an aberration. He cemented himself as a fantasy #2 starter. 2023 Projection: 13/3.56/1.18/215 in 185 IP

94) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 29.0 – Bregman’s turned into a boring fantasy player as he’s now almost literally a zero in steals with 2 steals since 2020 and a below average 26.6 ft/sec sprint. He also doesn’t have enough raw power (92.6 MPH FB/LD EV) to take advantage of all the flyballs he hits (19.5 degree launch) with 23 homers and a .259 BA in 155 games. He ranks this high because Houston is the perfect park for him with a great lineup, and he was much better in the 2nd half the further removed he got from off-season wrist surgery, slashing .288/.389/.514 with 17 homers in his final 94 games. We can’t predict the balls, but he is especially helped if the balls get a little juicier. 2023 Projection: 90/26/90/.266/.359/.468/3

95) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 35.0 – Kershaw agreed to a one year deal with LA which is obviously the best possible landing spot for him. The big fastball is long gone, but he’s proven he doesn’t need it, putting up a 6 year best 2.51 xERA on the back of elite control (4.7% BB%). The breaking pitches are elite with his slider and curve putting up a .236 xwOBA and .186 xwOBA, respectively, and the 90.7 MPH fastball is still effective with a .279 xwOBA which is a 6 year best. Durability is the biggest question as he battled back and pelvis injuries which limited him to 126.1 IP. He threw only 121.2 IP in 2021. He won’t rack up innings, but he could probably put up a sub 3.50 ERA even if he had to bring a cane out there on the mound with him. 2023 Projection: 13/3.04/1.03/173 in 155 IP

96) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently slotted to be LA’s starting 2B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

97) Xander Bogaerts SDP, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts started his career as a boring fantasy player, and now it looks like the back 9 of his career will end up pretty similar. He’s a line drive hitter with above average contact rates and average exit velocities. He’ll chip in with some steals, but he’s never been a huge base stealer, and I don’t think the new rules (bigger bases and max of 2 pick off attempts) are going to favor an aging player like Bogaerts who likes to pick his spots. In fact, it might actually hurt his value because I think younger, more reckless base runners will ultimately get the biggest bump. His name value is still very strong, likely bumping up his value much higher than players who can put up similar numbers and go much later. He also now gets a major ballpark downgrade going from one of the best hitter’s parks in the league to one of the worst. He’s a sell for me. 2023 Projection: 87/19/73/.288/.361/.460/12

98) Teoscar Hernandez SEA, OF, 30.6 – There is no getting around the fact that Hernandez gets a big ballpark downgrade going from Toronto to Seattle, but Seattle isn’t as bad on righties as it is on lefties, so this isn’t an immediate Jesse Winker situation. Seattle was about average, 14th overall, for righty homers over the last 3 years, and was in the top 10 in 2022. Toronto was the 18th best hitter’s park in 2022 for righties and Seattle was 26th, so there is no reason he will turn to dust next year. Also, when you smoke the ball to the level he does with an elite 92.6 MPH EV (top 4% of the league), you are essentially ballpark proof. The one concern is that he wasn’t able to maintain his swing and miss gains from 2021 with his whiff% jumping back up to 35.1%, so BA is really the area you should be concerned about. 2023 Projection: 77/28/89/.256/.317/.489/9

99) George Springer TOR, OF, 33.7 – Springer decided he was going to start running again out of nowhere and notched a 7 year high 14 steals in 16 attempts. He did it with a bone spur in his right elbow which required surgery at the end of the season, so you can’t even say maybe he was feeling particularly healthy. Good luck trying to predict stolen bases. The aforementioned bone spur might have contributed to a bit of a down year with a career worst .342 xwOBA, but 25 homers with a .814 OPS in 133 games ain’t bad for a down year, and an excellent 132 wRC+ shows the dead ball impacted everyone. Bringing his launch down 5.1 degrees to 13.9 degrees was a smart move if he did intentionally. 2023 Projection: 92/29/82/.265/.348/.501/9

100) Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 25.7 – Pena came out a man on fire in his MLB debut with a .809 OPS in his first 62 games, but he cooled off after that with a .651 OPS over his last 73 games. It was still an impressive debut overall, slashing .253/.289/.426 with 22 homers and 11 steals in 136 games. He also ripped up the playoffs with a 186 wRC+ in 13 games, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the drop off. He’s an explosive player who hits the ball hard (9.7% Barrel%), and has near elite speed (29.4 ft/sec sprint speed), but he’s going to have to improve his poor plate approach (24.2%/3.9% K%/BB%) to take his game to the next level. He’s a line drive hitter with a 8.7 degree launch angle, and while a few extra degrees would be nice, it fits his profile. He also only attempted 13 steals despite the big time speed. The ingredients are there to take a big step forward in 2023, but he’s already 25 years old, and there are enough small peccadillos to keep me from going completely head over heels. 2023 Projection: 79/23/72/.261/.306/.442/14

101) Daulton Varsho TOR, C/OF, 26.9 – I wasn’t super low on Varsho last year, but I wasn’t super high either because of his below average EV. His EV was below average again this year, and again it didn’t stop him from putting up an impact fantasy season with 27 homers and 16 steals while playing enough games at catcher to retain eligibility. The underlying numbers don’t look as pretty though with a .214 xBA and a well below average .298 xwOBA. It makes me hesitant to buy in hard on him. I just accept that some guys aren’t going to be my guys. You can’t own everyone. Varsho is one of those guys for me. The stolen base production from the catcher position and the extra plate attempts definitely juice his value, but there is always going to be someone who likes him more than me. And now with the trade to Toronto, it seems very likely this could be his last season with catcher eligibility. 2023 Projection: 77/23/75/.240/.309/.440/14

102) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 30.1 – Smashing the ball cures a lot of ills, and Garcia smashes the ball with a 92.1/96.4 MPH AVG/FB EV, but other than that, he is simply not that good of a real life hitter. He put up a 27.6%/6.3% K%/BB% with a .302 OBP. Meaning if he takes a step back at all at the plate he is at risk of getting benched. I know he just broke out in 2021, but he’ll be 30 at the start of 2023 and is slowing down with a career worst 66.9 percentile rank sprint speed. Especially with the new stolen base rules coming to the majors, now seems like the perfect time to cash him in. 2023 Projection: 73/26/87/.245/.296/.451/20

103) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

104) Zac Veen COL, OF, 21.4 – It’s a mistake to think more power isn’t coming for Veen. And maybe a lot more. He’s a skinny 6’4” with an explosive lefty swing that is a thing of beauty. He’s guaranteed to put up legit power numbers when he grows into his frame. It reminds me of what I predicted in February 2022 about my #9 prospect, Miguel Vargas, when people were fading him because of his low EV numbers in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects: “Vargas’ exit velocity numbers will increase, and the hardhit data will catch up to the surface power numbers, rather than the other way around. I’m hesitant to cap a young prospects power potential just because they don’t put up grown man exit velocities in the minors. It’s almost like people forgot power is often the last thing to come for prospects, especially ones who don’t sell out for it and have really strong contact numbers and plate approaches.” Vargas EV numbers looked damn good in his MLB debut this year. The power is coming for Veen too, and when it does, it will be combined with plus speed and a strong plate approach. That is star potential playing at Coors Field. He did struggle in his callup to Double-A (42 wRC+ with a 29.8% K% in 34 games) after handling his business at High-A (126 wRC+ with a 22.5%/12.% K%/BB% and 50 steals in 92 games), but a ton of super talented 20 year olds struggled considerably at Double-A this year, so I wouldn’t let it completely tank your opinion of him. There is still more work to be done, but I’m willing to stay patient for it, and it creates a buying opportunity this off-season that will likely disappear very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 93/25/86/.273/.345/.477/23  Update: It was reported Veen put on 25 pounds of muscle this off-season, and he already ripped a 115+ MPH double this spring. It certainly seems like the power will level up this year

105) Druw Jones ARI, OF, 19.4 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones has that classic tall and projectable build that screams upside, and he has elite bloodlines with Andruw Jones being his father. He has near elite speed (6.31 60 yard dash) and truly elite bat speed (99.42 percentile-besting some marks put up by bat speed monster Harry Ford last year). His power has also exploded this year, with him launching some homers that blew up on Twitter (Will Hoefer). He hurt his shoulder during BP before he was able to debut and underwent surgery to repair it, but I dropped Lawlar from the #1 slot in my first year player draft rankings last year after his shoulder injury, and I’m not making the same mistake with Jones ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 93/30/104/.274/.355/.515/20

106) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

107) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez is my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. He really shouldn’t be considered a prospect anymore. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside.  2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

108) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 20.0 – Perez is a tall drink of water at 6’8”, 220 pounds (interestingly, or not so interestingly, “tall drink of water” was originally used as a derogatory term for a flavorless weakling, but mysteriously evolved into a compliment in the mid 1900’s), and he uses that frame to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball with an easy, athletic delivery. He combines that with 3 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider, to go along with plus control. It’s a flawless profile. The production is there too with a 34.1%/8.1% K%/BB% in 75 IP as a 19 year old at Double-A. A rough patch at the end of July (10.64 ERA in 11 IP) marred his end of season ERA at the level (4.08), and it resulted in him hitting the IL with a shoulder issue that kept him out until mid September. It’s a reminder of how risky all pitching prospects are, no matter how can’t miss they seem. 2023 Projection: 3/3.85/1.23/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.26/1.08/210 in 180 IP

109) Ricky Tiedemann TOR, LHP, 20.8 – Tiedemann checks almost every box for a potential young ace. He has prototypical size at 6’4”, 220 pounds, with a nearly side arm lefty delivery that he uses to fire a mid 90’s fastball and 2 devastating secondaries in his slider and change. Minor league hitters had no chance. He put up a pitching line of 2.17/0.86/117/29 in 78.2 IP split across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). Maybe the only quibble is that he doesn’t have pinpoint control, but it’s not an issue or anything. He’s the top lefty pitching prospect in the game, and considering Toronto’s relatively depleted organizational pitching depth, don’t be surprised if he gets a ton of MLB innings in 2023.. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.29/54 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.31/1.11/220 in 190 IP

110) Yu Darvish SDP, RHP, 36.8 – I feel like Darvish has been the ace of all my fantasy teams for like the last 7 years. He inevitably drops in every draft and is the last “ace” available who I scoop up after beefing up my offense first. He had one of the best years of his career in 2022 with a 3.10 ERA and 197/37 K/BB in 194.2 IP, and the stuff was as nasty as ever. It could juice his value up a bit more than in the past, but I’m sure he still will inevitably go much later than comparable aces. Easy target for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 14/3.46/1.11/202 in 185 IP

111) Bryan Reynolds PIT, OF, 28.2 – Reynolds is rumored to be on the block and any destination would be an upgrade over Pitt. His power ticked up in 2022, putting up a career best 90.2 MPH EV and 113.2 MPH Max EV (top 9% of the league). It led to a career best 27 homers. He wasn’t able to keep up the high BA with it dropping to .262 (.249 xBA). He has a line drive approach, so the 27 homers is probably just about the best you can expect. It’s a safe profile with all category contributions, but you can’t really count on him carrying you in any one category. It’s not my favorite fantasy profile to target, but a change of team will make him much more enticing. 2023 Projection: 86/25/78/.268/.343/.465/8

112) Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 28.8 – I projected Suzuki for a .264 BA and .336 OBP last off-season, and he ended up hitting .262 with a .336 OBP. Not too bad if I don’t say so myself. I was a little too heavy on the power (.463 projected SLG vs. .433 actual SLG), but taking into account the dead ball, that was probably pretty close too. I wrote in the 2022 Top 1,000, “I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter,” and that is more or less exactly how it played out with a 116 wRC+. Now that he was a full year under his belt to get acclimated, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step forward in 2023. 2023 Projection: 76/21/71/.267/.339/.451/10 Update: Suzuki suffered an oblique strain which will likely land him on the IL to start the season, but he’s expected to return in April and this shouldn’t impact his long term value very much at all.

113) Starling Marte NYM, OF, 34.6 – Marte’s speed showed the first signs of falling off with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint speed (68.2% rank) and career worst stolen base rate (18 for 27) in 118 games. Slowing down just as stolen bases are set to tick up around the league is not great. He also underwent core muscle surgery at the end of the season, which can’t help as he enters his mid 30’s. He had a good year overall with a 136 wRC+ in 118 games, which makes this possibly your last chance to truly cash in on Marte. There are multiple red flags popping up. Don’t get Whit Merrifield’d. Unless you are all in for a championship in 2023, I would rather sell a year too early, than a year too late. 2023 Projection: 87/17/70/.283/.332/.451/26

114) Carlos Correa MIN, SS, 28.7 – Correa’s a great real life hitter with a .363 xwOBA (career .362 xwOBA) and 20.5%/10.3% K%/BB% in 136 games, but it doesn’t translate to 5×5 BA greatness. He’s a line drive hitter (11.6 degree launch) and he hasn’t stolen a single bag since 2019. He’s never hit more than 26 homers in a season (22 homers in 2022), although he’s been on pace for a lot more than that if you extrapolated to 150 games, and with a 94.6 MPH FB/LD EV, there is certainly potential for a career power year if everything goes right. After the whole free agency circus with him, he ended up right back where he started. 2023 Projection: 93/26/87/.280/.360/.480/0

115) Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 25.0 – I want to go bonkos for Vaughn, but he just hasn’t displayed enough over the fence power yet for me do so. He hit 15 homers in 127 games in 2021 and 17 homers in 134 games in 122. There is definitely more raw juice in the tank, but with a 7.5 degree launch angle he’s going to have to make an adjustment to unlock it. He hits the ball hard with a 90.8 MPH EV, but not hard on Eloy levels where the launch isn’t a big deal. His contact rates are where he really shines with an excellent 17.5% K%, and while a .271 BA is good, it’s not great, and his .255 xBA shows he’s no lock to put up a big BA. He’s also very slow with a 26.2 ft/sec sprint speed. Vaughn has the hit/power combo skills for a 3rd year breakout, but a cold look at his current profile is not showing fantasy goodness quite yet. 2023 Projection: 76/23/87/.273/.331/.448/0

116) Willy Adames MIL, SS, 27.4 – Dead ball be damned, Adames cracked a career high 31 homers in 139 games. His Barrel% rose every year of his career, peaking at 13% in 2022. He also gave himself some breathing room in the strikeout department with a 3 year low 26.9% K% and 28.2% whiff%, although he had to give up some walks to do it (7.9% BB%), and his BA is still an anchor (.238 BA). 2023 Projection: 78/28/89/.243/.317/.452/7

117) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 29.4 – A right hip strain and nagging knee injury ended Buxton’s season on August 22nd, limiting him to 92 games. He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in late September. Health is a skill, and he clearly doesn’t have it. It’s unfortunate, because he was in the midst of a monster season with 28 homers, which was pacing for a 40+ homer season if he stayed healthy. His power is truly elite with a 92.9/97.4 MPH AVG/FB EV with a 21.4 degree launch. He slowed down because of the injuries, but he had speed to spare and still had a 29.1 ft/sec sprint (30 ft/sec in 2021). He only stole 6 bases and was clearly not running as much to try to stay healthy. He also became a more patient hitter with a career best 8.9% BB%, but his K% spiked with it to 30.4%. Evaluating Buxton’s performance almost feels like a moot point because he just can’t stay on the field. He’s a low average slugger with a handful steals if he can stay healthy, but the odds of him staying healthy seems so low. 2023 Projection: 68/26/71/.244/.315/.514/9

118) Vaughn Grissom ATL, SS, 22.3 – Grissom undeniably had an electric MLB debut with a 121 wRC+ in 41 games, and it’s made even more impressive when you consider he started the year at High-A and played only 22 games at Double-A before getting the call. His good feel to hit (21.8% K%) with burgeoning power (5 homers) and speed (5 steals) transferred to the majors without a hitch. The only question is how much upside he’ll have at peak. His 84.6 MPH EV is a little concerning, and while it’s almost surely going up, it’s a pretty low starting point. He’s also not a burner with a slightly above average 27.7 ft/sec sprint speed. There’s no guarantee he ever surpasses a moderate power/speed combo, but his elite contact rates gives him a high floor, and at 6’3”, 180 pounds he has the frame to add more power. 2023 Projection: 60/14/50/.271/.332/.434/11  Prime Projection: 91/23/72/.288/.352/.467/16 Update: The Braves aren’t convinced with Grissom’s defense and optioned him down to Triple-A. He’ll need to show defensive improvement to get called back up as the starting SS

119) Luis Garcia HOU, RHP, 26.4 – Garcia seems to be one of the more underappreciated pitchers in the game. He throws a 94 MPH fastball with 4 above average to plus secondaries (cutter, curve, changeup, slider) that all rack up whiffs (29.1% whiff% overall). He has above average strikeout (24.4% K%) and walk rates (7.3% BB%). It led to a pitching line of 3.72/1.13/157/47 in 157.1 IP. He’s put up low WHIP’s in his 2+ year career, and there is both ERA and strikeout upside as he enters his prime. Above average is the floor, and I think there is another level to unlock. 2023 Projection: 12/3.52/1.15/177 in 165 IP

120) Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. He had an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be damn good pitching for one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP Update: Will begin the season on the IL with a sprained ankle, but he’s already started throwing and it isn’t a long term concern

121) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 30.0 – The dead balls likely put a halt to Hoskins bid to have a huge season. He continued to walk less (10.7% BB%) in an attempt to hunt for better pitches, but extreme flyball hitters were punished by the dead balls. His .794 OPS was a career low, but he still bashed 30 homers and had a 122 wRC+. He managed to bring his launch down to a career low 18.1 degrees, which might have prevented his BA from completely tanking (.246 BA). If the balls are juicier in 2023, he has 40 homer upside, but as is, 30 homers with a .240 BA is what you should expect, and his less patient approach dings his once huge value in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 87/32/86/.245/.337/.481/3

122) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 33.5 – Stanton’s 115 wRC+ was a career low, but it was very clearly the result of bad luck. His 95 MPH EV was 3rd best in baseball and his .351 xwOBA was much better than his .327 wOBA. His 36.5% whiff% was his career high in the Statcast era, but it’s basically within career norms so I wouldn’t be too concerned, and K’s have always been a part of his game. He’ll smash as long as he’s healthy, but being healthy is far from a given as he only played in 110 games this year and he’s not getting any younger. 2023 Projection: 73/35/91/.253/.337/.512/0

123) Joe Ryan MIN, RHP, 26.2 – Ryan proved his small sample success in 2021 was no fluke. His little fastball that could was the 4th most valuable 4-seamer in baseball, ranked amongst the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, and Spencer Strider. He threw all of his pitches harder this year with the 4-seamer up 0.8 MPH to 92 MPH. His control took a step back to a still above average 7.8% BB%, and he’s not exactly a strikeout machine (25% K%), but Ryan proved to a be a damn good pitcher who will still probably not get the respect he deserves this off-season. 2023 Projection: 13/3.60/1.15/171 in 165 IP

124) Pablo Lopez MIA, RHP, 27.1 – The good news is that Lopez stayed healthy and pitched a career high 180 IP, but the bad news is that he tired majorly in the 2nd half with a 4.97 ERA in his final 76 IP. His above average control of a plus fastball/changeup combo induces weak contact (87.9 MPH EV), gets whiffs (28.1% whiff%), and keeps guys off the bases (1.17 WHIP). His 3.75 ERA is more of floor than anything, and I’m betting on him beating that in 2023 if he can stay healthy, which is no sure thing as he’s battled injuries most of his career. 2023 Projection: 12/3.58/1.18/165 in 165 IP

125) Kyle Wright ATL, RHP, 27.6 – Kyle Wright is case study #1,000,001 on why pitching prospects are such a pain in the ass. He was the 5th overall pick in the draft and was nothing but a bust until something clicked in his age 26 year old season. His original owners almost definitely dropped him or moved on long ago. He switched up his pitch mix, started throwing his secondaries much harder, and massively improved his control en route to a pitching line of 3.19/1.16/174/53 in 180.1 IP. He didn’t exactly rack up the strikeouts with a 23.6% K%, and his 3.89 xERA was much higher than his ERA, but Wright finally figured out how to harness his plus stuff. And now that he broke out, it was reported he recently received a cortisone shot in his arm which has delayed the start of his spring. It never ends. 2023 Projection: 12/3.61/1.20/160 in 165 IP

126) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 31.4 – Yelich overcame his back injury and stayed healthy all year with 154 games played, but the injury zapped his power. He hit only 14 homers with a 3.6 degree launch angle. He still hits the ball hard (91.5 MPH EV), has an excellent plate approach (24.1%/13.1% K%/BB%), and has plus speed (19 steals), so while he’s not likely to put up MVP seasons anymore, he’s not washed up either. He’s a buy candidate for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 93/18/68/.264/.362/.420/17

127) Josh Hader SDP, Closer, 29.0 – Hader’s season is a reminder that these are human beings whose performance can be impacted by non baseball related factors. It’s not all numbers on a spreadsheet. Hader didn’t give up a single earned run until June 7th, but it started to fall apart after that, coinciding with his wife going through a very tough last month of pregnancy. He had a 8.07 ERA in his final 32.1 IP. He still struck out 53 batters over that time, and he closed the season out strong with 0 ER in 9.1 IP, along with dominating in the playoffs. There are zero concerns that he will get back to elite status in 2023. 2023 Projection: 3/2.75/0.93/90/35 saves in 60 IP

128) Emmanuel Clase CLE, Closer, 25.0 – Clase doesn’t put up huge strikeout totals with 77 K’s in 72.2 IP, but it’s only because he’s just too good at inducing weak contact and hitting his spots. His 2.2% Barrel% was tied for 4th best in baseball behind Devin Williams, Clay Holmes, and Jonathan Loaisiga. His 3.7% BB% was in the top 2% of the league. When you have a 99.5 MPH cutter and 91.9 MPH slider, you can just let batters get themselves out. He still put up a career best 28.4% K% by going to his swing and miss slider more than ever with a 38.1% usage. He could rack up even more K’s if he wanted to by going to that pitch more often, but he doesn’t have to.  2023 Projection: 4/1.69/0.89/78/37 saves in 70 IP

129) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 28.8 – Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery in late August and will be out for all of 2023. I love taking the Tommy John discount, but I usually do it the off-season before they are set to return, rather than hold them through their Tommy John year. If you aren’t planning on competing next year, he’s a no brainer target. 2023 Projection: OUT

130) Devin Williams MIL, Closer, 28.7 – Milwaukee always seemed to be threatening to deal Hader, and when they finally pulled the trigger, Williams immediately ascended to elite closer status. He has just stupid swing and miss ability with a 40% K% and 40.8% whiff%, to go along with an elite ability to induce weak contact with an 84.3 MPH EV against. 12.5% BB% is his biggest weakness, but it didn’t slow him down much as he put up a 1.93 ERA with a 96/30 K/BB in 60.2 IP. 2023 Projection: 5/2.68/1.09/101/34 saves in 63 IP

131) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 21.4 – Alvarez is a 5’10”, 233 pound ball of muscle who walloped 27 homers in 112 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He then got a cup of coffee, or more like a sip of coffee in the majors and it took him only 14 PA to get his first MLB dinger. He had a 101.5 MPH FB/LD EV in that obviously very small sample, but it drives home the point that Alvarez has near elite power potential, especially for a catcher. He has some swing and miss in his game (24.8% K%), but he’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%. Adley is the darling of the catcher world right now, but Alvarez’s superior over the fence power could easily make him the more valuable catcher not too far into the future. The Mets starting catcher job is wide open for the taking at the moment, but it seems they want him to get more defensive seasoning before handing the reins over to him. 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.240/.331/.457/2 Prime Projection: 84/33/96/.254/.361/.520/3

132) Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 28.5 – Baltimore turned into one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in the league, but someone forget to tell Santander that. He quietly turned into one of the better hitters in baseball with plus contact rates (18.9% K%), a career best walk rate (8.5% BB%), strong EV’s (90.1 MPH), and a launch angle that is made for dingers (21.4 degrees). It all led to 33 homers with a .352 xwOBA. His .240 BA kept his overall line in check, and while he’s not a high BABIP guy, a .248 BABIP is below his career average of .264. He’s not going to be super undervalued, but there should still be some meat on the bone for where he’ll likely be going. 2023 Projection: 81/31/92/.254/.326/.477/1

133) Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B, 26.4 – Torres’ power bounced back/ticked up in 2022 with a career best 90.4 MPH EV and 10.7% Barrel%, and while he couldn’t come close to repeating his juiced ball 2019 performance (38 homers), he smacked out a solid 24 dingers. He hit only 12 homers in his previous 169 games. He gets the bat on the ball (22.6% K%) and likes to run (10 steals in 15 attempts), so the added power could lead to some very fantasy friendly seasons. 2023 Projection: 77/25/83/.258/.327/.450/11

134) Rowdy Tellez MIL, 1B, 28.1 – I named Tellez a player to target last off-season and wrote, “Many times you will bet on a player to breakout, and when he doesn’t, you move off him next year … and then he inevitably goes bonkos. I don’t want to make that mistake with Tellez. Everything in the underlying numbers show this dude can mash with both power and average. I’m buying in again.” This is a good lesson to always keep in mind. If a player you liked doesn’t breakout, but still displayed the same skills that made you like him in the first place, don’t go off him. Sticking to my guns paid off as Tellez bashed 35 homers and once again put up impressive underlying numbers with a 91.1 MPH EV, 15.3 degree launch angle, and 20.2%/10.4% K%/BB%. He hit only .219 because he was once again the victim of bad luck (.252 xBA), although with a horrific 23.9 ft/sec sprint speed, maybe it wasn’t all bad luck. He won’t be underrated this year, but I still think there will be room for profit. 2023 Projection: 70/29/85/.253/.329/.492/1

135) Trevor Story BOS, 2B, 30.5 – I was already low on Story, and with news he will miss at least half the season after undergoing surgery to repair his UCL, I am even more out. Here is what I wrote before news of the injury hit: “Just when we started to relax and let our hair down when it came to Colorado hitters leaving Coors, Story comes along and smacks us right back to reality. His K% spiked 7.4 percentage points to 30.8% and it led to a career worst .238 BA (.221 xBA). We knew the batting average was coming down, but this was close to a worst case scenario on how far down. The power/speed combo was still good with 16 homers and 13 steals in 94 games battling through a few injuries, so he’s still an exciting fantasy player, but you now have to factor in that it could come with a batting average that tanks you in that category.” The injury just tacks on even more risk 2023 Projection: 31/11/35/.232/.310/.468/6

136) Ryan Helsley STL, Closer, 28.9 – Helsley doesn’t have the name value or the track record, but that is all that is holding him back from being a legitimate option for first closer off the board. He put up a 1.25 ERA with a 39.3%/8.4% K%/BB% in 64.2 IP. He throws a 99.6 MPH fastball with a slider that put up a 53.5% whiff% and a curve that had a .071 xwOBA. Losing his control is the only thing that could stop him. 2023 Projection: 4/2.67/1.02/90/30 saves in 62 IP

137) Jon Gray TEX, RHP, 31.5 – It’s kinda wild how Colorado just ruins pitchers careers. Gray got out of Coors and immediately took his game to another level with a career best by far 1.13 WHIP. He has huge stuff led by a 95.9 MPH fastball, to go along with a slider that put up a 40.6% whiff% and .224 xwOBA. He didn’t go full breakout with a 3.96 ERA, and an oblique strain limited him to 127.1 IP, but that just means his price will remain in a reasonable range. He has the goods to take his game to another level in 2023, and I’ll be targeting him everywhere this off-season. 2023 Projection: 11/3.62/1.18/178 in 165 IP

138) Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Bello is one of my top pitching targets for 2023. He checks a whole hell of a lot of boxes. He throws gas (96.3 MPH sinker), his changeup is a filthy out pitch (44.2% whiff% and .214 xSLG against), he keeps the ball on the ground (5.3 degree launch), and he induces weak contact (5.4% barrel%). His control isn’t great, but it isn’t really a major area of concern. Improving his slider would take him to another level, but his slider isn’t all that bad as is with an above average .288 xwOBA against. His 4.71 ERA (3.80 xERA) in 57.1 IP, and his relative lack of hype as a prospect is going to have him going for an extremely reasonable price this off-season. I’m all in on Bello. I would be all over him no matter where your team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 10/3.79/1.27/170 in 162 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.43/1.18/214 in 190 IP

139) Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 25.0 – Cabrera battled a biceps injury early in the year, a forearm injury in the middle of the year, and an ankle injury at the end of the year, and while none of the injuries magically improved his control like Luzardo, his control did bounce back from a terrible 2021 (14.7% BB% at Triple-A). He put up a reasonable 10.3% BB% in 28.2 IP at Triple-A and a not horrific 11.3% BB% in 71.2 IP in the majors. His extreme 2021 control issues were an aberration, so this year is much closer to his true talent level. It led to a pitching line of 3.01/1.07/75/33 in the bigs. The underlying numbers don’t look as good with a 4.05 xERA, but a 31.2% whiff% shows there is more strikeout potential in the tank, and he has an elite 5 pitch mix led by a 92.5 MPH changeup. He combines that with 2 plus breakers, a 96 MPH 4-seamer, and a 95.8 MPH sinker. There is a lot of volatility in this profile, but he has legitimate ace upside. 2023 Projection: 9/3.76/1.26/160 in 150 IP

140) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 34.0 – This video of Chris Sale going full meltdown mode and destroying the Triple-A locker room while on a rehab assignment is the perfect representation of his 2022 season. He pitched only 5.2 innings all year as he battled a stress fracture in his ribs early on, and then a broken pinky almost immediately after returning from the rib injury, and then finally a broken wrist from a bike accident finished off his season. None of the injuries seem to be long term concerns, and his fastball did average 94.9 MPH in those 5.2 innings, which is actually nice to see even if it is a very small sample. He has the reputation as a strikeout machine, but he’s also put up near elite walk rates since 2012 which gives him a safe floor even if the strikeouts take a step back. If you’re a competing team who doesn’t have the assets to go after an established ace this off-season, Sale is a good “Plan B” option. 2023 Projection: 10/3.59/1.17/181 in 150 IP

141) Jeffrey Springs TBR, LHP, 30.7 – Springs could be the most underrated, underhyped starter in baseball. He put up a pitching line of 2.46/1.07/144/31 in 135.1 IP and it’s like barely anybody noticed. The underlying numbers back it up too. He misses bats (26.2% K% and 29.5% whiff%), throws the ball over the plate (5.6% BB%), and induces weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against). It’s not like this came completely out of nowhere either as he displayed those same skills coming out of the bullpen in 2021. He just proved he can maintain those skills in the rotation. The stuff isn’t big with a 91.4 MPH fastball, which is probably where the lack of hype is coming from, but this feels like Nestor Cortes’ situation from last off-season. Don’t sleep on Springs. 2023 Projection: 11/3.41/1.12/160 in 150 IP

142) Jordan Montgomery STL, LHP, 29.9 – Montgomery credited his extra success with St. Louis (3.11 ERA vs. 3.69 ERA in NY) on their trust in letting him throw his 4-seamer more, but considering he was starting to fall apart a bit at the end of the season (4.97 ERA in final 38 IP), I’m leaning towards it just being small sample variation. He’s a damn good pitcher no matter how you slice it with 2 bat missing secondaries in his curveball (41.4% whiff%) and changeup (41% whiff%), to go along with plus control of the entire 5 pitch arsenal (5% BB%). If he feels more comfortable going to the 4-seamer more, it didn’t seem to hurt him at the very least. 2023 Projection: 11/3.56/1.18/160 in 170 IP

143) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 23.9 – Detmers  doesn’t have a big fastball (93.2 MPH) and he’s not a high spin guy or anything like that. None of his pitches put up particularly high whiff rates. Both his 22.6% K% and 8.5% BB% were average. It led to a 4.05 xERA (3.77 ERA) in 129 IP. He pitched better in the 2nd half of the season with a 3.04 ERA and 78/25 K/BB in his final 71 IP, and I also think he can continue to refine his breaking balls to unlock more strikeouts, but his previous prospect hype makes his price a hair too high for me. 2023 Projection: 12/3.55/1.20/171 in 165 IP Update: Detmers has looked like straight fire this spring with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s and his slider sitting 88-91 MPH. That is a huge development and is the added upside I needed to see from him to buy in. I’m now buying in hard

144) Ezequiel Tovar COL, SS, 21.8 – In yet another testament to Colorado’s odd prospect developmental strategy, to put it nicely, Tovar went down with a hip/groin injury on June 29th at Double-A, and Colorado decided it would be best to have him return directly to Triple-A on September 15th before rushing him to the majors after just 5 games at that level. It’s almost as if they had a preset plan for Tovar’s season which they didn’t adjust at all based on what was actually happening. Regardless, Tovar is a good enough prospect to overcome Colorado’s brain trust. He’s not the type to jump off the screen, but he has a plus hit tool with developing power and base stealing skills. He slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 homers, 17 steals, and a 66/27 K/BB in 71 games at mostly Double-A. I’m not sure the power/speed numbers will pop as much in the majors, but Coors should juice his best skill, batting average, and the SS job is his for the taking. 2023 Projection: 72/16/64/.261/.317/.402/13 Prime Projection: 86/22/71/.278/.332/.434/15

145) Kyle Manzardo TBR, 1B, 22.9 – I nicknamed Manzardo “Italian Lunch” in my in-season Dynasty Rundowns for a reason, because if you liked Italian Breakfast (Vinnie P), you’re going to love the next Italian meal (Manzardo). Like Vinnie, Manzardo has an elite plate approach with plus power. He slashed .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers and a 65/59 K/BB in 93 games split between High-A and Double-A. He barely dropped off at Double-A with 9 homers and a 148 wRC+ in 30 games. His path to playing time isn’t crystal clear with Tampa’s never ending depth (Aranda, Mead, and more), but that’s just the game with Tampa. If he produces when he gets his shot, they will find a spot for him. 2023 Projection: 19/5/23/.268/.334/.447/0 Prime Projection: 86/27/91/.281/.363/.488/1

146) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 24.8 – Houston still has a full rotation even with Verlander leaving, but Brown will inevitably get his shot eventually (see below for the update), and I have no doubt he will thrive when he does. He throws a 96.6 MPH fastball that put up a .167 BA against in his 20.1 IP MLB debut, to go along with a plus slider (.246 xwOBA) and curve (.167 xwOBA). It led to a 0.89 ERA and 22/7 K/BB. He dominated at Triple-A too with a 2.55 ERA and 31.5%/10.6% K%/BB% in 106 IP. He’s likely a mid rotation fantasy starter as is, and if he can improve his control and/or his splitter/changeup, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, especially in Houston’s pitching factory. He’s a major off-season target as he doesn’t get the hype that other top pitching prospects receive. 2023 Projection: 9/3.85/1.28/139 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.23/190 in 175 IP Update: The McCullers injury opens up a rotation spot for Brown early in the season

147) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists—before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right? Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP Update: Lo and behold, Painter felt elbow tenderness after his spring debut and was diagnosed with a UCL sprain. I saw the future, and I still couldn’t bring myself to believe it. He’s hoping to avoid Tommy John surgery and will try to ramp back up towards the end of March, so while Tommy John is certainly still on the table, it’s far from a guarantee.

148) Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 23.10 – Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September and will miss all of 2023. His elbow problems started in Spring when he underwent arthroscopic surgery. He was able to make it back for a month in June-July, and the stuff was still huge, but he eventually succumbed to the Tommy John. Like Buehler, I would optimally wait until next off-season to target him, but if you’re a rebuilding team he’s a great target. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 13/3.38/1.09/198 in 170 IP

149) Lance Lynn CHW, RHP, 35.11 – Lynn was rusty returning from knee surgery in June with a 5.88 ERA in his first 59.2 IP back, but he looked back to his normal self in the 2nd half with a 3.05 ERA and 62/8 K/BB in 62 IP. The underlying numbers on the season not only looked back to normal, but he put up a career best by far 3.7% BB% and a slightly career best 28.5% whiff%. The fact he was able to exhibit that level of elite control is a really good sign that he can remain effective even if his stuff takes a step back the deeper he gets into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 12/3.52/1.17/185 in 170 IP

150) Chris Bassitt TOR, RHP, 34.1 – The Mets and Oakland have 2 of the best pitcher’s parks in the league, so the move to Toronto’s slightly below average pitcher’s park is a downgrade. He’s a plus control pitcher (6.6% BB%) who induces weak contact (85.7 MPH EV against), and has average K rates (22.4% K%), so the ballpark downgrade could hurt him more than a high K pitcher. 2023 Projection: 13/3.69/1.19/163 in 175 IP

151) William Contreras MIL, C, 25.3 – William is basically an exact doppelganger of his older brother. He barrels up the ball (13.4% Barrel%) with strong EV numbers (90.4 MPH EV) and a low launch angle (6.1 degrees). The K% is on the high side with a 27.7% K%, but he walks a ton with a 10.4% BB%. His .347 xwOBA was the 5th best mark amongst catchers, and it led to a 138 wRC+ in 97 games which is a better wRC+ than his brother ever put up. He doesn’t get the respect he deserves when discussing the best young catchers in the game, and his trade to Milwaukee gives him a ballpark upgrade for righty homers. 2023 Projection: 66/24/77/.254/.346/.463/3

152) Willson Contreras STL, C, 30.11 – Contreras’ .364 xwOBA led all qualified catchers by a healthy margin (Danny Jansen’s .368 xwOBA was 1st with more lenient requirements) and his 132 wRC+ was a career high. He did it by bringing his K% down to a career best 21.1% (28.6% in 2021) and hitting the ball harder than ever with a career best 48.6% HardHit%. He did most of his damage in the 1st half with a .917 OPS in 67 games, and while his numbers tanked once the calendar turned to July, slashing .186/.279/.390, he still hit 9 homers in 46 games (an ankle injury kept him out for the vast majority of September) and kept the K% low with a 22.8% K%, so I wouldn’t be concerned with that. The only problem is the same problem he’s had his entire career, which is a relatively low 8.5 degree launch angle. It limits his homer power and the hit tool isn’t quite good enough to make for it. 2023 Projection: 67/23/74/.253/.350/.466/4

153) MJ Melendez KCR, C, 24.6 – Bobby Witt and a little bad luck overshadowed what a great MLB debut Melendez had. He hit the ball very hard with a 90.7/94.4 MPH EV, he displayed an extremely mature plate approach with a 24.5%/12.4% K%/BB%, he had a perfect launch angle at 15.1 degrees, and he consistently barreled the ball with a well above average 10.4% Barrel% in 129 games. He only hit .217, but a .237 xBA is more representative of his talent level, and I think that is probably a little light too. The new shift rules should help him as well. If you don’t want to pay up for the sexier names at catcher, Melendez should go at a much more reasonable price. 2023 Projection: 69/25/80/.241/.329/.448/4

154) Cody Bellinger CHC, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, like Samson. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Chicago paying him $17.5 million for one year seems like a lot until you realize how inflated the free agent market seems to be this year. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

155) Jhoan Duran MIN, Closer Committee, 24.7 – Duran is the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball with a league leading 100.8 MPH 4-seamer. Andres Munoz, Jordan Hicks, and Aroldis Chapman are the only other pitchers to have a pitch average over 100 MPH. He combines that with an elite curveball (49.7% whiff%), a nasty 96.4 MPH splitter which he is famous for, and a lightly used slider that he threw only 30 times, but he didn’t give up a single hit on the pitch. To top it all off, he had near elite control with a 6% BB%. It all resulted in a 1.86 ERA with a 33.5% K% and negative 1.1 degree launch angle in 67.2 IP. Duran is the elite of the elite. I don’t care that his role is uncertain. Maybe he’s the closer with Jorge Lopez struggling hard with Minnesota. Maybe he’s in a closer committee. Maybe he transitions to a starter. It doesn’t matter to me. I’m going after him no matter what and letting the chips fall where they may. 2023 Projection: 5/2.07/0.98/99/25 saves in 72 IP

156) Salvador Perez KC, C, 32.11 – Perez’ 2021 career year turned out to be just that, a career year. His numbers fell back down to around career averages in 2022 with a .757 OPS (career .764 OPS) and 108 wRC+ (career 104 wRC+). He underwent surgery for a torn UCL in his thumb in late June and miraculously was able to return just a month later. He performed better after returning, so it’s not an excuse for his numbers dropping off. He’s a free swinging power hitting catcher whose profile lends itself to inconsistency. 2023 Projection: 64/28/85/.260/.303/.476/1

157) Amed Rosario CLE, SS, 27.4 – Rosario was just never able to refine his game and have that next level breakout. His BB% and launch angle remain low at 3.7% and 5 degrees, and it’s killing his upside. He has elite speed with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and the one area of his game he actually has improved is his base stealing skills, going 18 for 22 on the bases in 153 games. If he started to run more with the new stolen base environment, that could be his avenue to a fantasy breakout. 2023 Projection: 82/14/68/.278/.318/.410/20

158) Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury with only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

159) Andrew Heaney TEX, LHP, 31.10 – Of course the Dodgers were able to fully unlock Heaney’s potential. He put up a 3.10 ERA with a silly 35.5%/6.1% K%/BB% in 72.2 IP. He ditched his curveball in favor of a slider, and his 4 seamer ticked up to a career high 93 MPH. He pitched under 5 innings in most of his starts and he battled a shoulder injury for much of the year. I also worry he won’t be able to take all of that improvement with him to Texas, although the pitch mix changes and uptick in velocity gives hope it wasn’t all just LA smoke and mirrors. There is plenty of risk, but his truly elite K/BB numbers are too good to ignore for the price. He’s an easy target. 2023 Projection: 9/3.51/1.17/160 in 140 IP

160) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 28.8 – Giolito’s fastball dropped 1.2 MPH, all the way down to 92.6 MPH, and it led to his worst season since he originally broke out with a 4.90 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 177/61 K/BB in 161.2 IP. He definitely got a little unlucky with a 4.23 xERA and a still very good 28.5% whiff%, but his skills took a clear step back. A bet on Giolito is a bet on track record, because he just didn’t display ace, or near ace stuff in 2023. He’s in the hold category for me. You won’t be able to recoup his upside in a trade, and his name value is still too strong to really get a great deal for him. 2023 Projection: 11/3.88/1.24/190 in 170 IP

161) Drew Rasmussen TBR, RHP, 27.8 – Rasmussen’s control ticked up to near elite levels with a 5.3% BB%, and it led to a breakout season as a full time starter with a pitching line of 2.84/1.04/125/31 in 146 IP. He’s not a huge K guy with a 21.4% K%, but the stuff is big with a 95.5 MPH fastball, and he’s shown more strikeout potential in the past. You can’t bank on it, but I wouldn’t be shocked if there was an even higher level of performance he can unlock in 2023. 2023 Projection: 10/3.58/1.15/140 in 150 IP

162) Nathaniel Lowe TEX, 1B, 27.9 – Lowe had a breakout season with a career high 27 homers and .302 BA. He really exploded in the last 2 months of the year, slashing .345/.414/.555 with 12 homers and a 52/23 K/BB in his final 61 games. He’s shown an ability to hit for power and average basically his entire career, so I don’t think it’s an aberration, but I’m also not betting on him being able to sustain it to this level. His 8.2 degree launch angle is on the low side, and it’s been low for the majority of his MLB career. A 93.5 MPH FB/LD EV is not truly beastly enough to make up for the lack of launch. His 22.8% K% is a career best, and some of the BA gains are certainly real with a .275 xBA, but buying into Lowe for his BA seems risky to me. He also had to give up his excellent walk numbers to do it with his BB% down 5.1% to a career low 7.4%. I would expect an above average hit/power combo in the future, rather than the plus marks he put up this year. 2023 Projection: 75/23/81/.278/.345/.468/3

163) Ryan Mountcastle BAL, 1B, 26.2 – Mountcastle feels sneakily underrated to me. He’s 6’4”, 230 pounds with no joke power. His 10.2% Barrel/PA ranked 8th in the league amongst the likes of Austin Riley, Teoscar Hernandez, and Shohei Ohtani. He smashed the ball with a career best 91.3 MPH EV. It only led to 22 homers in 145 games, and while some of that was due to Baltimore’s new ballpark dimensions, I wouldn’t let that completely sour him for you. His .362 xwOBA was in the top 7% of the league and was much better than his .316 wOBA. The ingredients are there for a monster career type year in 2023. I’m definitely buying low. 2023 Projection: 75/28/89/.266/.321/.475/4

164) Riley Greene DET, OF, 22.6 – Greene was an average MLB hitter as a 21 year old in his rookie season with a 98 wRC+ and .316 xwOBA in 93 games. He had an excellent 89.5/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV with an above average 9.3% Barrel% and solid 25.6% whiff%. If that was all we knew, we might be pretty excited about him, but that isn’t all we know. His fantasy numbers were disappointingly lack luster, slashing .253/.321/.362 with 5 homers, 1 steal, and a 28.7%/8.6% K%/BB%. His 2.8 degree launch angle is not optimal for fantasy upside, and he was only 1 for 5 on the bases with slightly above average speed. The upside just doesn’t feel that huge, but he still projects to be an excellent all around ballplayer, and Detroit changing the dimensions of their ballpark will only help. If you can use the perception that he had a poor season as a buying opportunity, I would do so, but I also wouldn’t break the bank to acquire him based on his past hype. 2023 Projection: 79/18/70/.267/.335/.428/6 Prime Projection: 91/24/83/.278/.352/.470/8

165) Kris Bryant COL, OF, 31.3 – A back injury tanked Bryant’s beginning of the season and then planter fasciitis ended his season after July 31st. It certainly looks like Bryant is entering that diminished but still good part of his decline phase. The good news is that Coors should cushion that blow as he was still able to slash .306/.376/.475 with 5 homers and a 14.9%/9.4% K%/BB% in 42 games. His power was completely sapped with a 85 MPH EV and 13.5 degree launch, but it’s a testament to his prodigious baseball talent that he was able to just completely flip around his hitting profile to be a near elite contact guy. This is a Yelich/Rizzo scenario where he may never return to prime levels, but he’ll still figure out how to be a productive hitter one way or another. 2023 Projection: 86/24/81/.273/.358/.463/5

166) Brandon Lowe TB, 2B, 28.9 – Lowe had an injury plagued season with injuries all over his body (elbow, shoulder, forearm, back). The back injury was the one that started it and ended up finishing his season as well. Back injuries tend to linger, and you don’t need to give Tampa Bay much of an excuse to give guys extra rest. I would be surprised if they let him go more than 140 games, but if he’s feeling good and raking he might be able to force their hand. Even through the injuries he brought his K% down to a career best 22.9%, although with a 33.5% whiff% I’m not sure it’s sustainable. It was down year overall with a .691 OPS, but some of that was bad luck (.320 xwOBA), and he still had a well above average 10.3% Barrel%. He’s a buy for me, but definitely be prepared for plenty of off days. 2023 Projection: 80/28/80/.244/.332/.467/4

167) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 26.2 – The 5.2 degree launch angle is killing him. It led to only 7 homers in 136 games despite hitting the ball hard with a 91 MPH EV. He had a .659 OPS with a below average .308 xwOBA, so you can’t even say it’s helping him in real life. He stole 20 bags, but that is the only category he helped you in. He needs to make an adjustment. 2023 Projection: 73/14/66/.265/.333/.396/19

168) Ian Happ CHC, OF, 28.7 – Happ’s a line drive hitter (10.9 degree launch) without elite contact rates (23.2% K%) or elite speed (27.9 ft/sec sprint). It means there isn’t huge upside, but he can be above average in every category. That 23.2% K% was a career best and was down 6 percentage points from 2021, and a well above average 89.7/94.3 MPH AVG/FB is at the heart of his success. 2023 Projection: 79/22/76/.260/.340/.440/10

169) Spencer Torkelson DET, 1B, 23.7 – I named Tork one of my top mid-season trade targets, and while I’m not as gung ho about it now, he is a still a buy for me. He had a very poor rookie season with a .604 OPS in 110 games, and he wasn’t good at Triple-A either with a .738 OPS in 35 games. I’m almost more encouraged that he struggled at Triple-A too considering he ripped up Triple-A in 2021. It means it just might have been a down year, which happens to almost everyone in baseball. If he went right back to destroying Triple-A, I might think he has some kind of fatal flaw vs. MLB pitchers (like Jarred Kelenic). “Baseball is 90% mental. the other half is physical.” – Yogi Berra. I wrote it in a previous Team Report, but it’s easy to assume every prospect who had a down year is regressing, rather it just being the normal ebb and flow of a baseball career. And Tork has another buy low trait, which is a former hyped prospect struggling in his first year or two in the majors. It’s not just blind faith based on his prospect hype, the underlying numbers didn’t look bad at all. He had a 90.5/93.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, 15 degree launch angle, and a 24.5%/9.2% K%/BB%. If that is all I knew about his MLB debut, I would have assumed he had a damn good rookie season. His .305 xwOBA is a little below average, but it’s much better than his .272 wOBA. He also put up a 93.1 MPH EV in his final 27 games when he got called back up. I think he’s in for a much better Sophomore season. 2023 Projection: 73/24/79/.248/.322/.441/1 Prime Projection: 86/30/93/.266/.345/.492/2

170) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

171) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 25.3 – It was a disaster season for Rogers, and just when he started to turn it around at the end of the year he suffered a lat strain that ended his season in mid September. He put up a 5.47 ERA in 107 IP and was demoted to the minors in August. His fastball and changeup both took 2 big steps back, and while his slider took a step forward with a plus .219 xwOBA against, that’s like asking Abe Lincoln’s wife, “other than that, how was the play?” As I alluded to earlier, he was showing signs of a pulse when he got called back up to the majors with a 3.72 ERA and 23/4 K/BB in 19.1 IP before going down with the lat, and he was so dominant in 2021 that it would be foolish to completely write him off. I’m not exactly targeting him, but if he falls too far I would have no issues scooping him up. 2023 Projection: 9/3.72/1.25/164 in 155 IP

172) Jorge Polanco MIN, 2B, 29.9 – Polanco was able to maintain his power explosion from 2021 with a 10.2% Barrel% and 89 MPH EV, but because of the dead ball, the results weren’t quite the same with 16 homers and a .235 BA in 104 games. His .358 xwOBA was actually a career best and in the top 9% of the league. He not only maintained the power gains, but he made a huge improvement to his plate approach with a 14.4% BB% (7% BB% in 2021), and while his K% rose 3 percentage points to 21.3%, it was worth it. The one thing he didn’t do well was steal bags, going only 3 for 6 on the bases while dealing with a back and knee injury, and he’s been inconsistent there in his career, making it hard to count on him there as he gets closer to 30 years old. The ingredients are there for Polanco to put up more huge seasons like 2021, but uncertainty with the ball and his willingness to run keeps me a little hesitant. 2023 Projection: 68/21/76/.257/.335/.449/6 Update: Will likely start the year on the IL with knee soreness, which is not a great sign for how much he’s going to run this year

173) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 23.10 – I named Lewis a to player target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip. He was in the midst of fully living up to his 1st pick overall hype, majorly improving his plate approach with a 20.9%/11.8% K%/BB% in 34 games at Triple-A. His power took a step forward as well with 5 homers and he maintained his plus speed with 12 steals. He quickly got called up to the majors and impressed with a 90.7 MPH EV, 12.2% K% and 146 wRC+ in 41 PA before going down with the injury in late May. I can’t deny that a 2nd torn ACL in the same knee is concerning, but Lewis has youth, and athleticism to spare on his side. He was blowing up to such a high level that I think downgrading Lewis too much based on the injury risk would be a mistake. 2023 Projection: 33/8/28/.258/.319/.423/5 Prime Projection: 84/24/82/.273/.335/.463/13

174) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 22.6 – All of our worst fears were realized. Abrams just didn’t hit the ball hard enough to do damage with 2 homers, an 86.5 MPH EV and 2.1% Barrel%, which led to a 71 wRC+ in 90 MLB games. Even things we didn’t fear went wrong, like him going only 7 for 11 on the bases and putting up a cover your eyes 1.7% BB%. His 29 ft/sec sprint speed is very fast (top 9% of the league) and he does seem like the exact type of player the new stolen base rules should reward, so I’m not overly concerned there. He was only 21 years old, so it’s very easy to say his power is sure to tick up with age, but you only have to look at his teammate, Victor Robles, to see it is not a guarantee. Granted, Abrams EV isn’t close to the horrificness that is Robles’ EV. Abrams value lands in a clear “hold” territory for me right now. I’m not exactly going after him, but I would also be hesitant to trade him with you unlikely to recoup his upside in a trade. 2023 Projection: 71/10/52/.260/.304/.380/19 Prime Projection: 84/16/68/.278/.325/.416/24

175) Jose Abreu HOU, 1B, 36.2 – Abreu couldn’t have landed in a better situation than Houston. He hit only 15 homers in 157 games in 2022, but that looks like an aberration with him crushing the ball with a 92.2 MPH EV. It also might have been a conscious decision to hit more for average as his 23.2% whiff% is a 5 year low and his 8 degree launch was a career low. He also maintained the BB% gains he made in 2022 with a 9.1% BB%. His .373 xwOBA was the 2nd best mark of his career. All of this to say, Abreu didn’t show any signs of decline, and he’s about to enter a stacked lineup in a ballpark that is made for cheap righty homers. If he wants to hit more homers, he will. 2023 Projection: 84/23/95/.281/.350/.472/1

176) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 28.9 – Laureano desperately needs to get out of Oakland. Their lineup is a ghost town, and their ballpark is total death on righty homers, ranking last in the league by far. His EV is fine at 88.7 MPH, but it’s not a ballpark proof EV. A bad park like Oakland can particularly hurt him. He has an above average power/speed combo, but a poor plate approach (27.2%/6.5% K%/BB%) will keep his BA and OBP low. In a better lineup and ballpark, he could have a very fantasy friendly profile, but in Oakland, I just don’t see enough upside. 2023 Projection: 77/23/74/.241/.312/.435/16

177) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26

178) Tyler Mahle MIN, RHP, 28.6 – Mahle finally got out of pitching hell in Cincinnati only to go down with a shoulder injury after 3 starts with Minnesota. He tried to return in September and was shut down for the season after 2 IP. It’s a shame because he’s been terrible at Great American Ballpark with a 5.00 ERA in 293.2 IP vs. a 3.76 ERA in 316.1 IP on the road. Assuming full health, there is almost no way he won’t be better with Minnesota and their above average pitcher’s park. Other than the shoulder, my one other hold up is that while he got unlucky in 2022 with a 4.40 ERA vs. 3.49 xERA, I don’t love that his whiff% dropped to an unremarkable 26.8% (25% K%). He’s not a plus control guy, so the strikeouts were what made him really enticing. I’m not going to reach for Mahle this year, but I have a feeling he could fall into my lap in drafts, and I will happily take him at a great value. His 295 ADP in NFBC leagues right now is a steal. 2023 Projection: 11/3.66/1.21/177 in 165 IP

179) Lance McCullers Jr. HOU, RHP, 29.6 – A forearm injury that McCullers picked up during the 2021 playoffs delayed the start of his 2022 season until mid August, and when he returned he had a new pitch usage strategy. He threw his sinker far less, and it made all the sense in the world as his other four pitches are all plus and generate over 30% whiff rates (slider, curve, change, cutter). He put up a 2.27 ERA with a 25.6%/11.3% K%/BB%. He had a 5.87 ERA with a 26.9%/6.0% K%/BB% in 15.1 playoff innings, showing the high ERA and bloated walk rate were both likely a small sample situation. His 3.57 xERA is more indicative of his true talent level, and while his walk rate was 11.1% is 2021 as well, I’m betting on it coming down to career norms in 2023. Unfortunately, a muscle strain in his right elbow popped up again, and it will land him on the IL to start the year. He’s a major injury risk 2023 Projection: 9/3.71/1.24/140 in 130 IP

180) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s MPH changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.26/82 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

181) Patrick Sandoval LAA, LHP, 26.6 – Sandoval checks a ton of boxes if you are trying to find an ascending young pitching target who doesn’t get very much hype. He’s a 6’3” lefty with a 5 pitch mix that both misses bats and induces weak contact. He had a 29.5% whiff% with a 87.3 MPH EV against. He throws his best 2 pitches the most, a novel concept, in his changeup (44.5% whiff%) and slider (.261 xwOBA). The K rates haven’t matched the high whiff rates in his career, his control isn’t great with a 9.4% BB%, and he’s not in the best organization, but all of that is already baked into his very reasonable price. He’s an easy target of mine this off-season. 2023 Projection: 11/3.58/1.27/166 in 160 IP

182) Nolan Gorman STL, 2B, 22.11 – Gorman’s MLB debut went exactly like we thought it would. He cranked 14 homers with a .226 BA and 32.9% K% in 89 games. I would feel a little more comfortable with him if the exit velocity numbers were through the roof (89.2/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV), but a 14.4% Barrel% shows the guy knows how to hit the sweet spot. It’s playing time that is the real hinderance from going all in. He’s a poor defensive player who hits righties better than lefties. A platoon role seems likely, and then tack on hit tool risk and St. Louis’ excellent depth, and it wouldn’t be that surprisingly of an outcome if he’s used as a bench bat. The fact he is destroying Spring and made the adjustments St. Louis wanted him to make is a great sign though. 2023 Projection: 66/22/62/.235/.309/.444/3 Prime Projection: 79/31/91/.243/.321/.487/4

183) Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 22.6 – Mead is a safe bet to be a very good MLB hitter, but there are a few snafu’s keeping me from going too crazy for him. He’s not a good defensive player, which could be a problem with Tampa’s never ending depth. He’s not a huge base stealer and he has a line drive approach, so he might not put up huge power/speed numbers. His season also ended with a sore elbow, which I wouldn’t be too concerned about, but it is one more thing to tack on. I don’t mean to sound the alarm bells, because I do like him a ton. He hits the ball very hard, he has an excellent plate approach with an 18.1%/10.9% K%/BB%, and he crushed the upper minors with a 146 wRC+ at Double-A and 129 wRC+ at Triple-A. Carlos Correa over the last few years could be a good ceiling comp offensively. 2023 Projection: 26/7/29/.265/.327/.433/2 Prime Projection: 91/24/86/.282/.351/.473/5

184) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 23.5 – There is little doubt that the 6’3”, 210 pound lefty Baty is going to be a very good real life hitter. He smokes the ball with a 91.1 MPH EV and he has an excellent plate approach with a 24.8%/11.7% K%/BB%, leading to a .943 OPS in 95 games at mostly Double-A. He got called up to the majors and while he only put up a .586 OPS in 11 games, his .332 xwOBA was much better and a 19% K% is a good sign his K% isn’t going to explode. It’s a line drive approach (10 degree launch) with below average speed (26.8 ft/sec sprint), making him a very safe bet to be an impact bat, but likely without monster upside in a 5×5 BA league. He tore the UCL in his thumb in late August which required surgery, but he’ll be good to go for 2023, and with Correa not signing, the path to playing time is much more open now. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.253/.332/.440/2 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.267/.349/.472/2

185) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 25.2 – Jung returned from shoulder surgery in late July and he must have been rusty because his plate approach was uncharacteristically horrific. He put up a 28.3%/3.8% K%/BB% in 23 games at Triple-A and a 38.2%/3.9% K%/BB% in 26 games in his MLB debut. It’s so out of pocket from the rest of his career. He had a 22.2%/9.1% K%/BB% in 78 games in the upper minors in 2021, so I’m inclined to cut him some slack. Shoulder injuries can sometimes sap power, but he was just fine in that category, jacking 9 homers in 31 minor league games and 5 homers in 26 MLB games. His 85.5 MPH EV and .287 xwOBA wasn’t great, but there was no guarantee he was even going to play in 2022 considering he underwent surgery in late February, so everything should look much better after a normal off-season and as he gets further away from the injury. 2023 Projection: 70/25/83/.252/.326/.462/3 Prime Projection: 84/29/91/.268/.343/.497/3

186) Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 26.11 – Kopech was on his way to breaking out as a starter before a knee injury threw a monkey wrench into his season. He had a 1.92 ERA with a 51/24 K/BB in 51.2 IP pre injury and a 4.79 ERA with a 54/33 K/BB in 67.2 IP after the injury. He underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in early October, and he also picked up a relatively minor shoulder injury in September which ended his season. Even before the knee injury his strikeout numbers weren’t where you would optimally want them, and he’s never been a control/command guy. The stuff was still big with a plus 94.9 MPH fastball that put up a 25.6% whiff%, but none his secondaries stepped up as a dominant out pitch. He simply didn’t go full breakout, and while you can use the injuries as a partial excuse, health is a skill. I will be more than willing to go out and get Kopech this off-season, but I’m not targeting him like I did last off-season. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.25/162 in 155 IP

187) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 26.4 – Skubal was in the midst of breaking out before going down with an elbow injury that ended up requiring surgery in mid August. It wasn’t the dreaded Tommy John, and while there isn’t a recovery timeline, similar surgeries have kept pitchers out for about 11 months or longer. Maybe he beats that estimate easily, but until we hear more, I wouldn’t plan on Skubal returning until mid-season 2023. Anything before that is gravy. His breakout came on the back of improved control with a career best 6.7 BB% and an improved pitch mix with him heavily reducing his 4 seam usage and upping his slider and sinker usage. It led to a pitching line of 3.52/1.16/117/32 in 117.2 IP. His 3.34 xERA backs up the breakout. The injury adds plenty of risk, but Skubal was encouraged he didn’t need Tommy John, and the pitch mix improvements he made should be unaffected by the surgery. As long as the stuff comes back, I don’t see why he can’t pick up from where he left off in the long run. 2023 Projection: 6/3.88/1.21/103 in 100 IP

188) Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 23.5 – Contreras’ rookie season was a mixed bag. On the down side, his 4.43 xERA, 90.1 MPH EV against, and 21.1/9.6% K%/BB% in 95 IP is not screaming future breakout. On the bright side, he had a 3.79 ERA, he threw gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball, and his 27.5% whiff% was well above average on the back of his plus slider (.238 xwOBA with a 42.1% whiff%). Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got blown up in 2023 or if blows up to near ace status. I’ll split the difference and expect solid but unspectacular numbers, but I think there is some volatility here. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.27/150 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.68.1.20/184 in 175 IP

189) Christopher Morel CHC, 2B/OF, 23.9 – Morel still has his lack of prospect love baked into his price, because if he got the hype he deserved, you wouldn’t be able to get him at such a good price this off-season. He destroyed Double-A with a 147 wRC+ in 28 games and then smacked up MLB pitching with a 13.4% Barrel% and 89.6/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. Not many 22/23 year old rookies step into the majors and hit the ball that hard. He’s also very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. The skills are there for Morel to be a household name. A legit star. The hit tool is the one thing that could hold him back with a 32.2% K% and 38.3% whiff%, but his 28.6% Chase% is actually league average and he never had strikeout issues to this level in the minors. I’m betting on the K’s coming down, allowing the power/speed combo to shine. He fell off in the 2nd half of the season, but he had a 93.6 MPH EV in September, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a high upside, semi-proven youngster who should be impossible to acquire. Love him as a target, although with all the of the depth Chicago signed this off-season, his short term playing outlook might have taken a hit. 2023 Projection: 72/20/74/.247/.320/.441/12

190) Noelvi Marte CIN, SS, 21.5 – There is nothing scouts hate more than when players start to fill out before they want them to fill out, and I think scouts overestimate their ability to predict when players will lose their athleticism in general. Having said that, Marte filled out in 2022 and he’s definitely starting to look more like a thick, power hitting corner infielder than a wiry strong SS. It’s going to hurt his ranking on real life lists, but I would be careful about discounting him too much for fantasy. He has big time power (19 homers in 115 games at High-A), speed (23 steals), and while his hit tool isn’t great, he has a strong plate approach (20.1%/11.3% K%/BB%). He’s not a finished product, and I wouldn’t expect huge steal totals, but he can be mighty dangerous in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He wouldn’t be untouchable for me (I recently traded him away in my 12 teamer for Cristian Javier), but I would need a very exciting win now piece to deal him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/27/89/.263/.338/.484/12

191) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

192) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

193) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 20.1 – I nicknamed Rodriguez Baby Bonds in the early season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns for a reason. He’s an OBP monster with a 28.6% BB% and .492 OBP, to go along with a plus power (9 homers) and speed (11 steals) in 49 games at Single-A. Granted he doesn’t have nearly Bonds’ hit tool with a 26.1% K%, but 3 outta 4 ain’t bad. In an OBP league, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has elite upside. His season ended early when he tore his meniscus sliding into a base, but in my professional opinion a meniscus tear isn’t as bad as an ACL tear. I wouldn’t let the injury scare you off him too much. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.251/.357/.485/12

194) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 20.7 – Carter was chugging along with a very good season at High-A, slashing .287/.388/.476 with 11 homers, 26 steals, and a 16.8%/13.2% K%/BB% in 100 games, and then he closed out the year with a bang at Double-A, slashing .429/.536/.714 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 6/5 K/BB in 6 games. His elite plate approach is made even more impressive by how  young he has been at every level he’s played at. He has plus speed, and at 6’4”, 190 pounds, he should naturally grow into more power, although his short and quick lefty swing is geared more for line drives. He could be a difference maker in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 BA he’s setting up to be a solid across the board type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/20/77/.276/.365/.449/15

195) Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – Bradley is a similar pitching prospect to what Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were. He heavily relies on an at least plus, mid 90’s fastball which he has plus control over, but the secondaries aren’t really standout. He’s also not as big as Gilbert and Kirby, which I don’t like to harp on, but it does factor in. He destroyed Double-A with a 1.70 ERA and 88/18 K/BB in 74.1 IP before taking a small step back at Triple-A with a 3.66 ERA and 53/15 K/BB in 59 IP. If his secondaries take a big jump, he can be a fantasy ace, but he’s more likely to settle into that 2/3 area. 2023 Projection: 3/3.83/1.23/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.08/176 in 170 IP

196) Tink Hence STL, RHP, 20.8 – Say hello to the 2024 top pitching prospect in baseball. Hence was treated with kid gloves in 2022, never going over 4 IP, but he checked literally every other box. His stuff is straight filthy with 4 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, slider, change), he has an extremely athletic delivery with insane arm speed that reminds me a bit of Pedro Martinez, and his numbers were lights out with a pitching line of 2.16/0.96/81/15 in 52.1 IP at Single-A. He’s certainly getting plenty of hype right now, but it’s going to look like nothing compared to the hype explosion that’s coming in 2023. I was just able to nab him at 44th overall in the Toolshed Prospect Mock with other prospect writers/podcasters, so I think his price could still be relatively reasonable this off-season. He’s a buy high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 14/3.29/1.09/205 in 180 IP

197) Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – Harrison is almost guaranteed to be an impact fantasy starter because this guy is going to rack up K’s no matter what. He had a stupid 50% K% in 29 IP at High-A (1.55 ERA) and a 36.4% K% in 84 IP at Double-A (3.11 ERA) on the back of an elite fastball/slider combo from a 3 quarters lefty delivery. He mixes in a legitimate changeup as well. The only question is how high his WHIP will get on the MLB level, because his control is still knocking on the door of the danger zone with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A. It’s not so bad to get very concerned, but it’s bad enough to keep him from ascending to the true elite pitching prospect tier. From a numbers standpoint, Blake Snell is not the worst comp. 2023 Projection: 3/3.88/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.41/1.25/191 in 165 IP

198) Felix Bautista BAL, Closer, 27.10 – Bautista’s control took a big step forward this year and it propelled him to the land of the elite. He dropped his BB/9 from 5.8 in the minors in 2021 to 3.2 in the majors in 2022. He throws a 99.2 MPH fastball to go along with a whiff inducing splitter (52.9% whiff%) and slider (42.5%). He put up a pitching line of 2.19/0.93/88/23 in 65.2 IP, and took over the full time closer job after Jorge Lopez got traded, notching 15 saves. Baltimore should provide him with plenty of saves opportunities next season. His lack of track record and name value should keep his price from completely exploding this off-season. 2023 Projection: 4/2.93/1.06/90/36 saves in 65 IP

199) Raisel Iglesias ATL, Closer, 33.3 – It was pretty clear Atlanta’s intention was for Iglesias to take over the closer role in 2023, and with Jansen signing with Boston, it looks even more clear now. His stuff was slightly down in 2022 with all of his pitches down a tick or 2, and his K% dropped 6 percentage points, but he had room to spare as he still throws gas with a 95 MPH fastball, and his 31.7% K% was still in the top 8% of the league. His plus control (5.7% BB%) shows he can thrive with slightly diminished stuff. 2023 Projection: 4/2.98/1.02/85/35 saves in 65 IP

200) Ryan Pressly HOU, Closer, 34.5 – Pressly might be the least hyped elite closer in baseball. He put up a truly elite 38.7% whiff% which led to a career high 35.9% K% on the back of one of the best sliders in the game (51.7% whiff% and .176 xwOBA). Tack on plus control with a 6.6% BB% and he was lights out in 2022 with a 2.98 ERA in 48.1 IP. He didn’t give up a single earned run in 11 playoff innings either. He battled a knee injury earlier in the year which got him off to a bit of a slow start, but he proved that was a mere bump in the road. He has the potential to be the #1 fantasy closer in 2023, especially with Houston giving him plenty of save chances. 2023 Projection: 4/3.02/0.99/80/35 in 60 IP

201) Jordan Romano TOR, Closer, 29.11 – Romano’s elite fastball/slider combo didn’t quite keep up his elite K numbers from 2020-21, but they were still firmly plus with a 28.3% K%. It led to a 2.11 ERA with 36 saves in 64 IP. His 3.31 xERA didn’t look quite as nice, but he’s outdone his xERA for 3 years in a row and the stuff is nasty. He’s not in the truly elite tier of closers, but he’s in the one right under that. 2023 Projection: 4/2.93/1.06/79/34 saves in 62 IP

202) Charlie Morton ATL, RHP, 39.4 – The fear of retirement a few years ago proved to be overblown as Morton is still chugging along and just signed a 2 year deal with Atlanta. There was some performance decline in 2022 with a career worst 9.5% Barrel% and a 4 year low 8.7% BB%, leading to a 4.34 ERA (4.11 xERA) in 172 IP, but he was still missing bats with a 28.2% K% and the stuff looked more or less the same. Maybe it’s the start of a decline, which is reasonable at 39 years old, but it also could have just been year to year variance. 2023 Projection: 12/3.68/1.19/198 in 170 IP

203) Taylor Ward LAA, OF, 29.3 – Ward was starting to fall off a cliff after a huge start to the season (1.181 OPS in his first 34 games) … actually, he was in mid free fall (.586 OPS in his next 64 games), but he managed to grab a hold of one of those skinny tree branches that the hero always manages to grab right before descending to his death, and he climbed back up that cliff with a huge finish to the year (.963 OPS in final 37 games). Put all together it was an excellent year that led to a .361 xwOBA which was in the top 8% of the league. He hits it hard (90 MPH EV), hits it in the air (15.8 degree launch), and has a strong plate approach (21.3%/10.6% K%/BB%). Nothing looks like a fluke, as he’s shown flashes of all of these skills in the past, but I also think you have to factor in some regression. 2023 Projection: 79/24/71/.269/.345/.451/4

204) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B, 29.6 – 12 homers with 5 steals in 137 games just isn’t going to cut it, and his .240 BA shows the risk in counting on batting average guys. Batting average is particularly volatile, and both his 18.1% K% and 20.7% whiff% were career worsts. I think he’ll do better than a .727 OPS in 2023, but the upside isn’t high enough to go after, and his name value will likely push his value higher than justified. 2023 Projection: 76/18/74/.270/.334/.432/6

205) Ty France SEA, 1B, 28.9 – This is why I just can’t ever truly buy into a hitter like France in fantasy. He had a very good real life season with a 127 wRC+, but 20 homers with 0 steals and a .276 BA just doesn’t do it for me. He ranked 105th on the Razzball Player Rater. He’s a line drive hitter who gets the bat on the ball with a weak 87.6 MPH EV, which is good enough to have the ball drop in, but not good enough to hit for big power. He’s also slow as molasses with a 24.7 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s safe and you know what you’re getting, but I aim for higher upside in fantasy. 2023 Projection: 77/18/81/.278/.343/.440/0

206) Christian Walker ARI, 1B, 32.0 – I recommended Walker as a buy candidate multiple times in my in season Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Here’s what I wrote in the April Rankings, “.403 xwOBA with a 92.9 MPH EV and 20.4%/16.3% K%/BB%. Good buy low candidate, or waiver wire pickup with a .603 OPS,” and then again in the June Rankings, “10 homers with a .217 BA in his last 29 games. .191 BABIP shows that BA should come up,” and then one more time in July, “.207 BA vs. .248 xBA.” From August 1st through the end of the season he slashed .305/.361/.537 with 13 homers, and he ended up with a more respectable .242 BA by the end of the year. I don’t think people realize how good he was with 36 homers and a .359 xwOBA, which was in the top 8% of the league. He’ll probably be more fairly valued this off-season, but he still lacks the name value of guys who will put up similar production and go much higher in drafts. 2023 Projection: 77/30/86/.245/.325/.475/2

207) Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – Whitlock once again heads into the off-season in role purgatory, but it sure seems like he will be a starter to me. He also underwent arthroscopic hip surgery in late September, and while he’s expected to be ready go for the start of the season, it adds another layer of unknowns. What isn’t unknown, is that Whitlock is a damn good pitcher as he backed up the 2021 breakout with another very good year in 2022. He put up a 3.17 xERA (3.45 ERA) with a 29.4% whiff% and 4.8% BB%. In holds leagues, he is for sure a target because there is a decent back up plan, but even in saves only leagues, I think he has the potential to be a good enough starter to take the plunge. 2023 Projection: 9/3.65/1.19/140 in 140 IP

208) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

209) Robert Hassell WAS, OF, 21.8 – Hassell is becoming quite the divisive prospect, and it all comes down to his upside. His groundball rates were over 50% and he hit only 11 homers in 112 games split between High-A and Double-A. He’s fast, but he’s not an absolute burner, stealing only 1 bag in 27 games at Double-A (23 steals in 85 games at High-A). He has a potentially plus hit tool, and while a 19.9% K% at High-A is good, it’s not close to being elite, and it jumped to 28.7% at Double-A. He doesn’t have that one truly impressive tool. Having said that, the guy is just a damn good all around ballplayer, and there is still room to pack on muscle to his 6’2” frame. You don’t have to squint all that hard to see a future where he goes 20/20 with a good BA and high OBP hitting atop Washington’s lineup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/18/72/.273/.348/.425/18

210) Aaron Ashby MIL, LHP, 24.10 – Ashby didn’t go full ace breakout in 2022 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but the ingredients are all there for it to happen in 2023. He throws gas with a 95.7 MPH sinker, racks up K’s with a 29.4% whiff%, and keeps the ball on the ground with a 2 degree launch angle. He throws a 5 pitch mix, and while his control isn’t great, it’s nothing that will prevent his from starting (9.9% BB%). Unfortunately, a shoulder issue from last year popped up again this off-season, and he is hoping to return in mid May. Risk is high now both with his ultimate role and injury. 2023 Projection: 4/3.60/1.23/71 in 60 IP

211) Hunter Renfroe LAA, OF, 31.2 – Trade to LA doesn’t change his value much as he goes from one good hitter’s park to another. Renfroe maintained most the contact gains he made in 2021 with a respectable 23.2% K%, and his 90.5 MPH EV was a career high. He’s one of the quietest 30 homer bats in the game. 2023 Projection: 72/30/81/.248/.314/.488/1

212) Sonny Gray MIN, RHP, 33.5 – This is the off-season to cash in on Gray. I don’t think he’s going to drop off a cliff, but there are signs of a decline and his 3.08 ERA in 119.2 IP could create a selling opportunity. He’s been injury prone for years now and his stuff is now down a tick from ahis prime. His whiff% tanked 4.2 percentage points to a well below average 21.9% and his 3.67 xERA was much more representative of his performance. I’m seeing more risk than upside at this point in his career. 2023 Projection: 10/3.68/1.20/152 in 150 IP Update: Gray blamed the injury filled 2022 on not being prepared for the season, and I tend to believe him as his stuff looks far better this spring. He’s also in a contract year. All signed are pointing towards him having a good season.

213) Noah Syndergaard LAD, RHP, 30.7 – This one almost feels too easy. Like we’re falling into a trap. Thor is a shell of his former self, but he accepted that reality and was barely throwing his 4-seamer by the end of the season. He has the skills to transition into more of a finesse pitcher with plus control over a 5 pitch mix, and he still throws respectably hard with a 93.6 MPH sinker and 94.1 MPH 4-seamer. If anybody can unlock every drop of upside left in this tank, it’s the Dodgers. I don’t think he’s all of a sudden going to turn into a strikeout machine with them, but I’m expecting strong ratios and wins. 2023 Projection: 12/3.74/1.20/141 in 160 IP

214) Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 35.6 – Jansen isn’t quite as elite as he used to be, but he’s still damn good. His 3.38 ERA was the 2nd worst mark of his career, his 87.1 MPH EV against was a career worst, and his whiff% was down 5.8 percentage points to 27.3%. Even with all that his 2.34 xERA was a 5 year best, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. I don’t think he is in quite the elite tier of closer, but he’s not far off from it. 2023 Projection: 4/3.23/1.07/82/36 saves in 65 IP

215) Camilo Doval SFG, Closer, 25.9 – Doval’s cutter sat 98.6 MPH in 2021 and he somehow managed to up that in 2022 with it sitting 99.4 MPH. He also added a 98.4 MPH sinker that immediately turned into an elite pitch with a negative 17 degree launch, 25.9% usage, and .281 xwOBA. His slider remained elite. It led to a 2.53 ERA with a 85.9 EV against, negative 0.8 launch, and a 28% K%. His control is the only weaknesses of his game with a 10.5% BB% and 1.24 WHIP, but looking at his minor league career, that is trending in the right direction. He’s not quite a truly elite closer yet, but he’s near elite, and at only 25 years old he could easily take the next step in 2023. 2023 Projection: 5/3.08/1.20/85/32 saves in 65 IP

216) Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. At this point in the off-season, he seems locked into the closer role. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

217) Matt Chapman TOR, 3B, 29.11 – I called Chapman “one of the easiest bounce back calls in baseball for 2022, one of those picks that will look obvious in hindsight,” on the 2022 Top 1,000, and if you take into account the dead balls, I nailed it. He put up a 117 wRC+ which was directly in line with his career 120 wRC+. If you don’t take into account the dead ball, it was mighty similar to 2021 with 27 homers and a .229 BA (27 homers with a .210 BA in 2021). The underlying numbers break the tie though, as he put up an elite 92.2 MPH EV (89.7 MPH in 2021) and brought his K% down 5.1 percentage points to a respectable 27.4% K%. He put up an excellent .341 xwOBA. You can safely draft him as a low average power hitter. 2023 Projection: 86/29/83/.236/.329/.450/2

218) Nick Castellanos PHI, OF, 31.1 – Casty left the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark and immediately the bottom fell out with a .694 OPS in 136 games. He never hit for the kind of power he hit for in Cincy with Detroit either. It wasn’t just the ballpark though, he was much worse with a career low 87.5 MPH EV and 5.2% BB%. You can’t even say he was better at the end of the year, because he had an 86.7 MPH EV from July 1st through the end of the season, and the later you went into the year, the lower the EV got. He has a long history of production, so you don’t want to put too much weight on a down year, but I wouldn’t expect him to get back to his days with Cincy. His production with Detroit seems like a fairer bounce back point. 2023 Projection: 73/24/81/.269/.320/.468/6

219) Steven Kwan CLE, OF, 25.7 – Kwan’s profile completely transferred to the majors with a 9.4%/9.7% K%/BB%, and he surprised on the bases with 19 steals in 147 games. Hs stole only 6 bags in 77 games in the upper minors in 2021. I don’t want to be a party pooper, but I can’t help but being a little careful here. He had a 85.1 MPH EV and 1.4% Barrel%. His .341 wOBA was much better than his .312 xwOBA, and his .298 BA was much better than his .268 xBA. This isn’t a high upside profile to begin with, and I think there is real risk his numbers drop off considerably. I would be much more comfortable with him in deeper leagues, and if his offensive profile is what your team needs I get it, but he’s not a target of mine. 2023 Projection: 81/9/57/.280/.353/.405/16

220) Lars Nootbaar STL, OF, 25.7 – A Nootbaar is like one of the those healthy, organic, 90% cocoa dark chocolate bars. It’s an adult snack that is heart healthy. It has an excellent plate approach (20.5%/14.7% K%/BB%), hits the ball hard (91.7 MPH EV), and is fast (28.2 ft/sec sprint). It’s a sensible snack that fits into a healthy diet. But it lacks that flair factor. It’s got no caramel, no peanut butter, no nuts, no nougat. It has a line drive approach (10.7 degree launch) and it’s never been a big base stealer, so you can’t expect big homer and steal totals. You’re not getting that flavor explosion. “Everything in moderation, even moderation,” is possibly the most important words to live by, and it applies here. A team full of Nootbaar’s will be boring, but he can be the perfect piece to fit into a more high risk, high reward lineup. 2023 Projection: 79/20/74/.258/.351/.454/8

221) Jonathan India CIN, 2B, 26.3 – India’s low EV from 2021 (87.6 MPH) came back to bite him in 2022, and it actually got even worse, tanking to 85.1 MPH. His speed tanked too from an 85.6 percentile speed rank to 58.9 percentile. He battled a variety of injuries all season long, but it’s hard to place all of the blame on them. You’re going to get dinged up as a major leaguer. It was a disaster sophomore season all around. We’ve seen many players bounce back from the classic sophomore slump, and he’s still in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league. You don’t want to write off such a talented player like India after one bad, injury filled year. This is a bet on the player and the talent, because the underlying numbers are not kind to him. 2023 Projection: 76/20/72/.256/.333/.427/9

222) Endy Rodriguez PIT, C, 22.10 – In the year of the catcher breakout, Rodriguez may be the biggest breakout of them all. He managed to improve at each new level, putting up a 151 wRC+ in 88 games at High-A, a 199 wRC+ in 31 games at Double-A and a 208 wRC+ in 6 games at Triple-A. He’s put up plus contact and walk rates his entire career (19.0%/11.3% K%/BB% in 2022) and now his power is ticking up with 25 homers in 125 games. He played 18 games at 2B, 16 games in the OF, and 3 games at 1B, so Pitt is clearly planning for a future where both him and Henry Davis can co-exist. It will help both of their longevities to not catch so many games and will also maximize their per year plate attempts. 2023 Projection: 38/10/39/.259/.330/.442/3 Prime Projection: 81/24/79/.283/.358/.476/4

223) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 27.6 – Don’t get pulled in on the name value. A shoulder injury completely wrecked Flaherty’s season, limiting him to 36 IP, and nothing looked resolved when he returned in September. His control was completely gone with a 13.2% BB% and his whiff% hit a career low 25.5%. You can say you are buying the track record and giving him a pass, but he’s been bad for years now with a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021, and 4.94 xERA in 2022. His stuff was mostly back and he still induced weak contact, so I don’t think he he is a complete lost cause, but his injury and performance risk would prevent me from acquiring him at anything other than a sweet heart price. 2023 Projection: 8/3.98/1.28/140 in 140 IP

224) Thairo Estrada SF, SS/2B/OF, 27.1 – San Francisco’s lineup is such a hodge plodge of mismatched parts it’s almost comical. I know that’s kinda been their thing for years now, even winning championships with that type of lineup. They don’t have a super strong farm system either so that doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon. I mention all that to say Estrada’s playing time seems pretty locked in, especially because he can play a variety of positions. He’s a plus contact (16.5% K%), plus speed guy (21 steals with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint) who hits for enough power to keep his head above water (14 homers in 140 games). His below average .299 xwOBA would concern me with a more stacked team, but like I mentioned, it doesn’t bother me as much with SF. I wouldn’t really go after him, but if you pass up on steals early in the draft, Estrada is the type you should target later on. 2023 Projection: 78/13/59/.267/.325/.400/20

225) Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 25.11 – I want to like Hoerner more, but I’m struggling to get over the poor 87.2/89.8 MPH AVG/FB EV which led to a below average .301 xwOBA and terrible 2.6% Barrel%. He also had a below average walk rate (5.4% BB%) and Chase% (33.7%). He’s a plus contact guy (11% K%) with plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint), so while crushing the ball isn’t necessarily his game, I think there’s a chance the bottom falls out offensively. It doesn’t worry me enough to stay away from him, but he’s not someone I am going to make sure I get. There are other lower cost speed options who I like the value on more. 2023 Projection: 76/10/62/.275/.324/.406/18

226) Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 25.8 – Teams that aren’t in contention at the end of the season are always looking for those late season pickups, and I recommended McCarthy in 2021 as the perfect flier to take because of his fantasy friendly upside. It paid off big this year as he slashed .283/.342/.427 with 8 homers, 23 steals, and a 21.5%/6.5% K%/BB% in 99 games. He has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed and he has the ability to be a category winner there. The problem is that he handily outperformed his underlying numbers with a .337 wOBA vs. .298 xwOBA because he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard (4.8% Barrel%). There is competition is Arizona’s OF, and he is not going to have a long leash. I look at him as a cheap source of steals, so if his price rises too much this off-season, I’m not going to stick my neck out to grab him. 2023 Projection: 74/12/65/.245/.303/.395/27

227) MacKenzie Gore WAS, LHP, 24.1 – It looked so promising through the first 2 months of the season with Gore putting up a 1.50 ERA and 57/17 K/BB in 48 IP, but then the wheels completely fell off. He put up a 11.05 ERA in his next 22 IP before getting shutdown with elbow inflammation. The good news is that he was able to return to Triple-A in September, but he didn’t pitch well with a 5.25 ERA and 9/4 K/BB in 12 IP. It’s still easy to dream on the filthy 4 pitch mix, and the early part of the season showed us his upside, but his control isn’t close to where it needs to be. His former prospect hype likely puts his value higher than I would be willing to go on him. 2023 Projection: 6/4.48/1.36/124 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.98/1.29/181 in 170 IP

228) Mitch Haniger SFG, OF, 32.3 – SF is a brutal park for righty homers. It makes Seattle’s park look like Coors Field. But Haniger has the type of power that can overcome it, putting up a career high 91.9/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in an injury shortened season due to an ankle injury. He also cranked 39 homers in 2021, so I wouldn’t completely jump ship because of the ballpark, but it’s definitely a downgrade. 2023 Projection: 76/28/82/.248/.317/.469/1

229) Jesse Winker MIL, OF, 29.7 – Trade to Milwaukee is close to a best case scenario for Winker, and gives me confidence the bounce back is coming. He goes from a below average ballpark to one of the best for lefty homers. His 2022 was a bit weird. He raised his launch angle to career high 16.8 degrees, but it tanked his EV to 87.7 MPH, and the dead ball was not forgiving to hitters who weakly hit the ball in the air. His plate approach was still elite with a 18.8%/15.4% K%/BB%, and his .345 xwOBA was much better than his .313 wOBA. Maybe he’ll bring the launch angle back down, or maybe the balls will be more lively, but either way, I’m betting on Winker’s pure hitting talent. 2023 Projection: 78/20/76/.261/.360/.451/1

230) Oscar Colas CHW, OF, 24.6 – I really dug Colas’ powerful lefty swing last off-season and bought in when many were fading him. It paid off as he smashed 23 homers with a .314 BA in 117 games. He started the year at High-A where he put up a .845 OPS in 59 games, but he really took off in the upper minors with a .928 OPS in 51 games at Double-A and a 182 wRC+ in 7 games at Triple-A. The plate approach isn’t great (24%/6.2% K%/BB% at Double-A), and the GB rates are on the high side (45% at Double-A), but neither are so bad it is concerning. He’s setting up to be a good, but not necessarily great power bat with a BA that shouldn’t hurt you, and it looks likely he’ll break camp with the team. 2023 Projection: 66/22/78/.253/.312/.441/2 Prime Projection: 75/28/88/.262/.326/.474/3

231) George Valera CLE, OF, 22.5 – Valera’s Robinson Cano-like, smooth as silk lefty swing unsurprisingly had no trouble against upper minors pitching, smashing 24 homers in 132 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. His 25.6% K% proved his K rate won’t get out of hand after putting up a 30% K% at Double-A in 2021, and he remained an OBP machine with a 13.1% BB%. He’s a near elite prospect in an OBP league, and he’ll be an impact 5×5 BA player too. 2023 Projection: 34/10/38/.238/.323/.435/1 Prime Projection: 89/28/92/.257/.348/.487/4

232) Masyn Winn STL, SS, 21.0 – The risk with Winn is that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough, and while he has a good hit tool, a 20.1% K% isn’t close to elite. If he puts up an 86 MPH EV with a 25% K% in his MLB debut it wouldn’t be all that surprising. A CJ Abrams situation could be on the horizon where his price takes a drop after his debut. Power is often the last tool to come with prospects though, so you don’t want to dismiss plus hit/speed combos who don’t have big power at 20 years old. This could be a mid 20’s breakout scenario rather than a guy who steps into the bigs and immediately sets the world on fire. An Andres Gimenez type come up would be the optimal path. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/15/63/.270/.333/.421/24

233) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – This off-season is going to be your last chance to acquire Acuna at anything resembling a reasonable price. The fact he is overshadowed by his older brother is a hinderance to his hype right now, but when he comes out guns a blazing in the upper minors in 2023, the fact he is Ronald Acuna’s younger bro will add fuel to the hype fire. He destroyed High-A, slashing .317/.417/.483 with 8 homers, 28 steals, and a 25%/14.2% in 54 games. He only put up a 68 wRC+ in 37 games at Double-A, but he was only 20 years old and he wasn’t overmatched at the level with a 21.3%/10.1% K%/BB%. He’s currently hitting well in the AFL with a .822 OPS in 10 games. He’s not big at 5’10”, but he hits the ball hard with plus speed and has a mature plate approach. His profile is not that far off from Corbin Carroll’s honestly, although I’m not saying he will be as good as Carroll. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/20/75/.262/.338/.440/25

234) Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 21.7 – The dreaded prospect fatigue seems to have hit Luciano. Injuries and the lack of truly standout numbers are the cause, but his profile remains the same as a potential double plus power bat with a good feel to hit and strong plate approach. He hit 10 homers with a 22.2%/9.6% K%/BB% and 121 wRC+ in 57 games at High-A. He’s a projectable 6’2”, 178 pounds with a powerful righty swing. Don’t let the fatigue completely overcome you, fight it, because a strong showing at Double-A in his 21 year old season could get the hype really popping off again. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/29/90/.262/.337/.489/3

235) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

236) Bryson Stott PHI, 2B/SS, 25.6 – Stott had a rough start to his MLB debut with a .488 OPS in his first 45 games, but he found his groove after that, slashing .271/.333/.401 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 15.8%/8.3% K%/BB% in 82 games. He’s never been a huge home run hitter, and while he’s fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint, he doesn’t run enough to be the type to carry you in that carry. Solid across the board production is what you should expect, and his upside will depend on how much he decides to run. 2023 Projection: 73/16/62/.263/.328/.414/14

237) Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – Harry Ford and Logan O’Hoppe were my top 2 prospect catcher targets for 2022, and both were big hits. Granted, you could have thrown a rock and hit a catcher prospect breakout with Endy Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, Edgar Quero, Diego Cartaya, Ford, O’Hoppe etc … all having big seasons. Ford used his lightning quick bat, plus speed, and mature plate approach to put up a 132 wRC+ in 104 games at Single-A. He slashed .274/.425/.439 with 11 homers, 23 steals, and a 23%/17.6% K%/BB%. The power didn’t pop, but his home ballpark is one of the worst for homers, and I have no doubts about his long term power as he doesn’t have any groundball issues. He hit 8 homers in 53 games on the road and 3 in 51 games at home. He’s a plus athlete who could play other position, so he could be the type to retain catcher eligibility while still playing 150+ games. He’s still a major buy for me in 2023. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/26/86/.268/.350/.479/16

238) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.4 – Mayo is a 6’5”, 215 pound power hitting bull with an electric, lightning quick swing. He drilled 19 homers in 104 games split between High-A and Double-A. His hit tool took a step back when he got to Double-A with it spiking to 34.5% in 34 games (21.5% at High-A), but he was only 20 and I don’t think he has major hit tool issues. He likely won’t hit for a high average in the majors, but he has legitimate 40 homer upside at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 80/32/91/.256/.338/.515/8

239) Zach Neto LAA, SS, 22.2 – Selected 13th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, LA put any concerns to rest real early about Neto not playing in the toughest college conference (Big South), quickly moving him to Double-A where he thrived, slashing .320/.382/.492 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 21.3%/5.9% K%/BB% in 30 games. I loved him even before the big pro debut, writing around draft time, “Maybe I’ve been watching so much Spencer Steer lately that I’m just seeing him in everywhere, but I’m seeing a lot of Steer in Neto’s game. I think they are both taking a page out of Alex Bregman’s book.” He did what he was supposed to do against the inferior college competition with total across the board destruction, and he also proved it in the Cape League with a 1.026 OPS and an 8/8 K/BB in 16 games. He might not win you any one category, but he can make an impact in all of them. He’s ranked 3rd overall on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/23/81/.276/.342/.458/13

240) Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Selected 5th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Green is the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect. He is a fully grown man at 6’3”, 225 pounds and his father, Eric Green, is a former 1st round pick, Pro Bowl NFL Tight End. He has truly elite speed (6.16 60 yard dash) and exit velocity numbers, but it comes with major hit tool risk. He showed the upside and risk in all it’s glory in his MLB debut with a 156 wRC+ and 40.4% K% in 12 games in rookie ball. If you want to shoot for the moon in off-season first year player drafts, Green is your guy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 81/32/92/.248/.330/.509/17

241) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

242) Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.10 – Selected 4th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Johnson looks like a seasoned MLB vet at the dish, spitting at pitches out of the zone and making excellent contact when he does swing. His swing looks geared more for contact than power at the moment, but he clearly showed his power potential in the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors where he crushed 24 homers, one of which went 501 feet. He’s currently in the 98.22 percentile in his class for bat speed too. He’s not a burner, but a 6.65 60 yard dash (Perfect Game) is pretty damn good and he stole 9 bags in 8 Team USA games (he slashed .375/.483/.542 in those games), so his speed might be getting undersold. The only hiccup is his pro debut. He had a 27.6% K% in 9 games at rookie ball and a 24.5% K% in 14 games at Single-A. Both marks are far off from elite contact, but he walked a lot at each level and stole 6 bags total. He also put up a 139 wRC+ at Single-A. The guy can play. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/23/86/.277/.355/.478/12

243) Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.4 – Selected 18th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Collier is one of the youngest players in the class and is already pretty built up, although it looks like there is room for more. He also has the bloodlines with his father, Lou Collier, playing in the majors for 8 years. He played JUCO ball this year as a 17 year old and was hitting bombs with an extremely fast and powerful lefty swing, slashing .333/.419/.537. He then destroyed rookie ball with a 203 wRC+ in 9 games. His plus hit/power combo was made for Great American Ballpark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/28/94/.271/.346/.496/4

244) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 30.2 – It’s never easy valuing veteran players from overseas in relation to teenagers in the minors, which is why I don’t think Senga (and Yoshida) should be included in First Year Player Drafts. He should be included in the MLB portion of your off-season festivities with the rest of the 30 year olds. Including him in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, but I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy at the top of First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter like Senga. He signed for 5 years, $75 million, which tells you the type of production MLB executives expect him out of him. Good, but not great. His control is solid, but not standout, and his 8.6% BB% was actually below average. He’s not an innings eater type at 6’0, 178 pounds, and he’s only eclipsed 148 IP once since 2017. I say that to show he isn’t a slam dunk, but there are definitely skills here to get excited about. He throws in the mid to upper 90’s and his splitter is a devastating pitch. He also throws an above average slider and average curve. It’s a #2 starter at best, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him struggle a bit. 2023 Projection: 11/3.82/1.26/164 in 160 IP

245) Jose Miranda MIN, 3B/1B, 24.9 – Miranda’s long term playing time worries me a bit. He isn’t a good defensive player (negative 9.3 Fangraphs value), he’s not a huge OBP guy (5.8% BB%), he’s slow (negative 4.5 baserunning value), and he hits lefties better than righties (.821 OBP vs. .721 OBP). He has plus contact rates (18.8% K%) and power (89.3 MPH EV), but neither are really elite. I don’t mean to hit the panic button, because I would bet on him being able to hold down a starting job for the next several years, but I think the risk that he ends up in the short side of a platoon is very real. 2023 Projection: 68/23/82/.265/.321/.437/1

246) Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 24.6 – While Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson got eaten up at Reno and the PCL, Pfaadt did nothing but thrive. He put up a pitching line of 2.63/0.99/74/14 in 61.2 IP (4.53 ERA with a 144/19 K/BB in 105.1 IP at Double-A). He throws a high spin, 93+ MPH fastball to go along with a potentially plus slider and changeup as his most used secondaries. He has that juicy combination of near elite control (4.8% BB%) and swing and miss ability (31.6% K%). He’s a definite target of mine in off-season prospect drafts. 2023 Projection: 8/4.18/1.26/146 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.68/1.17/188 in 180 IP

247) Wilmer Flores DET, RHP, 22.1 – Flores dominates with plus control of a heavily used mid 90’s fastball that gets whiffs in the mold of a George Kirby or Logan Gilbert. He combines that with two potentially plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. High-A hitters didn’t stand a chance with a 1.83 ERA and 35/2 K/BB in 19.2 IP, and while he couldn’t maintain that at Double-A, he was still damn good with a line of 3.01/1.05/95/21 in 83.2 IP. Tack on Detroit being one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league, along with the fact they had the 8th best defense in baseball according to Statcast, and Flores might not be getting nearly the respect he deserves. 2023 Projection: 4/4.08/1.25/66 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.67/1.15/183 in 178 IP

248) Javier Baez DET, SS, 30.4 – Baez bottomed out in 2022 with a career worst 87.9 MPH EV, leading to a .671 OPS in 144 games. He has a terrible plate approach, so if he’s not hitting the ball very hard, there isn’t much here. He’s also getting slower with a career worst 66.9 percentile sprint speed. I doubt the power drop is real considering he was only 29 years old, but this type of profile can fall off when bat speed and foot speed start to decline. I think Baez will bounce back somewhat in 2023, but this isn’t the type of profile I’m buying as he enters his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 73/23/76/.249/.293/.431/12

249) Alex Cobb SFG, RHP, 35.6 – It took Cobb 12 seasons at the ripe old age of 35 to finally have that velocity uptick. His velocity exploded on his sinker and splitter about 2 MPH each to 94.8 MPH and 89.6 MPH. Just how we drew it up. We can do our best to predict future performance, but at the end of the day these are human beings, not computer algorithms. Players make adjustments, find the fountain of youth, cheat, get new coaching, work harder etc … The added velocity resulted in career bests in GB% (61.5%), xERA (3.15-Statcast only goes back to 2016) and xFIP (2.89). It didn’t fully show up in his surface stats with a still good 3.73 ERA, but it showed up in the 2nd half with a 3.00 ERA in his final 108 IP. His age, lack of name value, and the underperformance of his underlying numbers makes him a buy candidate for a contending team. 2023 Projection: 11/3.59/1.25/165 in 160 IP

250) David Bednar PIT, Closer, 28.6 – Bednar could get traded to a contending team in a setup role at the drop of a hat, but if he holds down a closer job, he’s an elite option. He put up a 32.9% K% with a 2.61 ERA in 51.2 IP. It’s his 2nd year in a row of elite production on the back of a plus 96.4 MPH fastball and 2 plus secondaries in his curve and splitter. 2023 Projection: 4/3.20/1.13/82/25 saves in 60 IP

251) Sean Murphy ATL, C, 28.6 – Murphy’s .344 xwOBA was 6th amongst qualifying catchers, and he made real improvements with a career best 20.3% K% (25.4% in 2021), but it was almost disappointing because it led to such mediocre fantasy numbers with 18 homers and a .250 BA in 148 games. A lot of that was because of Oakland’s terrible ballpark though (.702 OPS at home vs. a .812 OPS on the road), so now that he got traded to Atlanta’s neutral park, he has a real chance to pop. 2023 Projection: 68/22/76/.258/.337/.446/1

252) Ryan McMahon COL, 3B, 28.3 – McMahon didn’t have the breakout I was hoping for with 20 homers and .246 BA in 153 games, but some of the underlying numbers show he didn’t seem that far off from it. He crushed the ball with a 91.7 MPH EV, and his 113.7 Max EV was in the top 8% of the league. His 28.2% whiff% was a career best. He’s 28 years old with over 2,000 PA attempts under his belt, so it’s hard to say he is anything more than a solid bat, but he certainly hits the ball hard enough to put together a career year. 2023 Projection: 78/23/76/.253/.330/.448/7

253) Anthony Rizzo NYY, 1B, 33.9 – There is no better spot for Rizzo than the Yanks short porch, and he obviously realizes that as he re-upped with the team. His 10.9% Barrel% was a career high and he tied his career high in homers with 32 in only 130 games. He did show continued skills deterioration in the batting average department though. He put up a career worst 18.4% K% and 22.8% whiff%, along with a career high 19.3 degree launch, and it led to a .224 BA. His .239 xBA was a career low by far. His transformation from an excellent all around hitter to a low average slugger is now complete. 2023 Projection: 81/28/79/.238/.340/.471/5

254) Alec Bohm PHI, 3B, 26.8 – Bohm leveled up in 2022. He brought his launch angle up to a respectable 10.4 degrees (5.6 degrees in 2021) and he brought his K% down 9.2 percentage points to 17.4% K%. It led to a well above average .333 xwOBA. He continued to hit the ball hard with a 90.2 MPH EV, although a relatively weak 92.4 MPH FB/LD EV led to only 13 homers in 152 games. It’s a batting average first profile right now, which is not my favorite to go after in fantasy, but he’s shown some signs in spring of getting to more of his raw power. 2023 Projection: 77/18/79/.278/.326/.425/4 Update: He’s been crushing the spring and keeping his launch angle high. It’s a good sign that he could level up in 2023

255) Scott Barlow KC, Closer, 30.4 – Barlow misses bats (32.5% whiff%) and induces weak contact (30.3% HardHit%-Top 4% of the league) on the back of two plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. It led to a 2.18 ERA with 77 K’s in 74.1 IP. He notched only 24 saves in 2022, partly because he was put into a time share for the first couple months of the season, and partly because KC just isn’t a good team. He’s not at risk of being in a time share in 2023 though, making Barlow a great target to go after if you don’t want to pay up big for saves, which I rarely do. 2023 Projection: 4/3.05/1.10/75/29 saves in 65 IP

256) Josh Bell CLE, 1B, 30.8 – Bell got traded to San Diego at the deadline and it all went to hell in a handbasket, which quite frankly, if I’m going to hell, doing it in a handbasket doesn’t sound like the worst mode of transportation. He put up a .877 OPS in 103 games with Washington and a .587 OPS in 53 games with San Diego. San Diego has a terrible hitters park, which contributed, but natural regression likely played a role as well. Put all together it was a typical Bell season with a 123 wRC+ on the back of an excellent plate approach and groundball/line drive attack style. It’s a little worrisome that his 88.9 MPH EV and 112.2 Max EV is down considerably from his prime form (92.5 MPH EV and 115.8 MPH Max EV in 2021), and while it got worse in San Diego, it was down with Washington too. I don’t see a reason why his power would fall off so much in his age 29 year old season, so I’m leaning towards natural variation, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind. 2023 Projection: 76/23/83/.265/.354/.454/0

257) Josh Naylor CLE, 1B, 25.9 – Naylor finally had his breakout season, slashing .256/.319/.452 with 20 homers, 6 steals, and a 16.1%/7.1% K%/BB% in 122 games. He’s a line drive hitter with a 10.3 degree launch, which was a career high, so he’s not likely to put up huge home homer totals, but he can be a discount version of Ty France. And he might actually have more upside than France with his 6 steals and 94.4 MPH FB/LD EV. 2023 Projection: 71/22/87/.265/.326/.452/4

258) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 32.10 – A wrist injury tanked Rendon’s season which ended up requiring surgery in June. This was coming off an injury shortened 2021 where he underwent surgery in August for a right hip impingement. All of these injuries and surgeries are not a recipe for staying production and healthy the deeper he gets into his 30’s. He hit .240 with 6 homers in 58 games in 2021 and then he hit .229 with 5 homers in 47 games in 2022. He’s still displaying his usual strong plate approach (18.1%/11.9% K%/BB%), and he’s still hitting the ball hard (89.6 MPH EV), so I do think he can bounce back, but I would not expect a bounce back to prime form. 2023 Projection: 76/20/77/.269/.350/.440/2

259) Eugenio Suarez SEA, 3B, 31.9 – Suarez’ batting average bounced back somewhat in 2022 with a .236 BA (.198 BA in 2021 and .202 BA in 2020), but his xBA’s have been pretty consistent over the last 3 years (.216/.215/.220). He’s a .220 hitter and the swing and miss is trending in the wrong direction with career worsts in K% (31.2%) and whiff% (33.1%). He’ll pop 30 homers, but it will kill your BA. 2023 Projection: 73/30/85/.220/.325/.452/0

260) Brady Singer KC, RHP, 26.8 – Singer broke out on the back of improved control, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a near elite 4.6%, and it resulted in a 3.23 ERA with a 150/35 K/BB in 153.1 IP. He’ll need that improved control to hold because he’s mostly a 2 pitch guy, and while both pitches are good, neither are exactly dominant with both putting up slightly above average xwOBA’s (sinker-.309/slider-.287). Even with the breakout, his 3.97 xERA is probably closer to his true talent level. He’s worked hard on his changeup and it looks good so far in spring, so that could give him an avenue to level up again. 2023 Projection: 8/3.78/1.22/155 in 160 IP

261) Tanner Bibee CLE, RHP, 24.1 – Bibee’s fastball exploded into the mid 90’s and all hell broke loose. He dominated High-A with a 2.59 ERA and 86/13 K/BB in 59 IP and then pitched even better at Double-A with a 1.83 ERA and 81/14 K/BB in 73.2 IP. He’s always had excellent control, and the bump in stuff took his game to another level. Along with the mid 90’s heat he throws a plus slider, a changeup that flashes plus, and he’ll mix in a curve as well. His name value still isn’t close to his actual value and is a target everywhere. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.28/29 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.68/1.17/181 in 175 IP

262) Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 23.8 – Everything plays off the double plus mid 90’s fastball for Williams, and he used that devastating to pitch to rip through the minors in 2022. He had a 1.40 ERA with a 67/14 K/BB in 45 IP at High-A, and then went to Double-A and put up a 2.31 ERA with a 82/26 K/BB in 70 IP. He combines the double plus fastball with 3 quality secondaries in his slider, curve, and change. If he can continue to refine his secondaries and control, he has top of the rotation upside, and he’ll likely settle in as a mid rotation starter if he can’t. 2023 Projection: 2/4.17/1.33/31 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.63/1.22/178 in 170 IP

263) Marcus Stroman CHC, RHP, 31.11 – Stroman had a rough first half with a 5.32 ERA in his first 47.1 IP before going down with a shoulder injury, but he was back to his normal self when he returned from the injury with a 2.56 ERA in his final 91.1 IP. He keeps the ball on the ground (7 degree launch) with plus control (6.3% BB%) and below average K rates (20.9% K%). It’s a safe, low upside profile. 2023 Projection: 10/3.66/1.20/146 in 165 IP

264) Cal Raleigh SEA, C, 26.4 – Raleigh became one of the premier power hitting catchers in the majors, smashing 27 homers which was tied for first with Daulton Varsho. They weren’t cheapies either as he crushed the ball with a 90.9/94.8 MPH AVG/FB EV and 22.5 degree launch. His 114 MPH Max EV was in the top 6% of the league. The high launch angle combined with a high strikeout rate (29.4% K%) is going to tank his batting average (.211 BA), so he’s basically Mike Zunino 2.0, although his strikeout problems aren’t nearly as bad as Zunino’s. 2023 Projection: 57/25/71/.225/.304/.462/2

265) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

266) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.8 – Abel’s 6’5”, 190 pound build, combined with a 4 pitch mix led by a mid to upper 90’s fastball, screams ace upside, but the numbers and command say more mid rotation starter. He put up a 3.90 ERA with a 130/50 K/BB in 108.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. Maybe the immediate and unquestioned dominance of Painter put the expectations too high for the still very young Abel. It seems reasonable to expect continued refinement of his command and secondaries in his age 21 year old season. If he can take those steps, his value will skyrocket, but even as is, he’s a damn exciting prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/181 in 170 IP

267) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Espino was on his way to an insane season before falling off the face of the earth. He had a 2.45 ERA with a 35/4 K/BB in 18.1 IP at Double-A in April and then he never pitched again. It started as a knee issue and then turned into a shoulder issue too. The stuff is so nasty with a 5 pitch mix led by an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, but it was recently reported he is still having problems with his shoulder and is months away from ramping up. In line with how secretive Cleveland was about the injury that shut him down in 2022, it’s still not entirely clear what is going on with his current shoulder injury. The upside is still sky high, but a shoulder injury for a pitcher is especially scary. There is a ton of risk here. 2023 Projection: 1/3.83/1.30/13 in 10 IP Prime Projection:  10/3.51/1.19/188 in 160 IP

268) Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 29.0 – Diaz ascended to best closer in baseball status with an unbelievable 50.2% K% in 62 IP. His career 40.3% K% is the 2nd best mark in the history of baseball, behind the man who he just unseated as the top closer, Josh Hader (43.2%). The highest ranked starter on that list is Spencer Strider at 9th overall. Diaz is not just a one trick pony though, he also induces with contact with a 85.5 MPH EV against which was in the top 4% of the league, and he doesn’t have any control problems with an above average 7.7% BB%. He should be the top closer off the board. 2023 Projection: OUT Update: Out for the year with a torn knee which he suffered celebrating a WBC victory

269) Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 27.9 – Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation. He induces weak contact (87.1 MPH EV), keeps the ball on the ground (51.2% GB%), and misses bats (24.6% K%). That’s a great combo of skills. It led to a 3.18 ERA and 126 K’s in 119 IP. The one snafu is his control, putting up a 9.8% BB% and 1.35 WHIP, but even without control improvements that 1.35 WHIP feels high to me. He mostly went to this fastball/slider combo in 2022, but he has a 5 pitch mix and the curve and change performed very well in small doses. The overriding point is there are a few avenues of improvement, whether it be pitch mix changes and/or refining his control. I’m not going to stick my neck out for him, but I would be happy to roster Steele in leagues of all sizes in 2023. 2023 Projection: 9/3.66/1.27/157 in 150 IP

270) Jake Cronenworth SD, 2B/1B, 29.3 – Cronenworth picked the wrong year to raise his launch angle. He drastically raised his launch 5.7 degrees to 18.2 degrees, and it led to a career low 87.6 MPH EV and .239 BA (.221 xBA). With the juicy balls, it could have been a huge year for him, but with the dead balls it tanked his numbers with a .722 OPS. It also only led to 17 homers in 158 games. He’s tough to evaluate because maybe he brings the launch back down again next year, or maybe the balls are more live. The uncertainty leads me towards shying away from him. 2023 Projection: 86/20/78/.255/.340/.432/4

271) Marcell Ozuna ATL, OF, 32.5 – Ozuna had his 2nd down year in a row (.645 OPS in 2021 and .687 OPS in 2022), but he vastly underperformed his underlying numbers in both years. He had a .347 xwOBA in 2021 and .337 xwOBA in 2022. He still hits the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, but that’s down about 2 MPH from his peak, and his career wOBA of .338 is much lower than his career .358 xwOBA, so you can’t completely trust he’ll just perform to the underlying numbers. I’m betting on a bounce back in 2023, but there are certainly real signs of decline. 2023 Projection: 68/25/79/.253/.319/.458/3

272) Logan O’Hoppe LAA, C, 23.2 – I named O’Hoppe “easily the most underrated catcher in the minors” in last off-season’s Targets Series, and while he ended up having some competition for that crown, I didn’t steer you wrong. He slashed .283/.416/.544 with 26 homers, 7 steals, and a 16.6%/15.7% K%/BB% in 104 games at Double-A. He has a real chance at plus hit and plus power, although above average hit/power is probably a more fair expectation. The trade to LA gives him a clear path to playing time, and he got a 5 game cup of coffee which could indicate he is in play to open the season with the club depending on off-season acquisitions. 2023 Projection: 48/14/53/.253/.331/.440/2 Prime Projection: 74/24/80/.271/.343/.462/4

273) Gabriel Moreno ARI, C, 23.1 – Trade to Arizona opens up a very clear path to playing time. Moreno experienced a power outage in 2022 with only 3 homers in 62 games at Triple-A, and while he’s shown more power in the past, and some of that was injury related, he’s not a big power hitter. He had a 5.9 degree launch angle with an 89 MPH FB/LD EV in his 25 game MLB debut. What he does do well is get the bat on the ball, putting up an 11% K% in the majors, and his 89.2 MPH AVG EV shows he can hit the ball the hard. His 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed shows he’s a pretty good athlete as well. Moreno is as safe as they come and it’s always nice to have a catcher who can actually help your BA. 2023 Projection: 53/11/47/.270/.328/.420/3 Prime Projection: 78/19/74/.285/.342/.450/3

274) Andres Munoz SEA, Closer Committee, 24.2 – Munoz is the top setup man to own in dynasty, and with Sewald expected to be behind schedule after undergoing some procedures this off-season, Munoz could sneak into the closer job. He throws a 100.2 MPH fastball with a silly elite slider that put up a 50.8% whiff% and .162 xwOBA. It led to a 38.7% K% and 41.8% whiff%. If that wasn’t enough, he also has near elite control with a 6% BB% and he induced weak contact at near elite rates with a 86.2 MPH EV against. He had a 2.49 ERA with a 96/15 K/BB in 65 IP, and his 1.84 xERA was even better. The guy literally doesn’t have a weakness and has a real argument to be crowned the best reliever in baseball. 2023 Projection: 5/2.39/0.93/91/18 saves in 62 IP

275) Paul Sewald SEA, Closer Committee, 32.10 – Andres Munoz is as good or better than Sewald, but usually teams defer to the vet and Sewald was locked into the closer role in the 2nd half. He doesn’t have huge stuff with a 92.5 MPH fastball, but the results look the same as the guys who do with a 34% whiff%, 86.2 MPH EV against, and 2.67 ERA (2.64 xERA). He underwent “minor” procedures on his heel and elbow which will delay the start of his spring, and that could be the opening Munoz needs to take control of the main job. Short term, I may still lean Sewald’s way, but long term, Munoz probably has the edge 2023 Projection: 4/3.26/1.06/84/24 saves in 64 IP

276) Alex Verdugo BOS, OF, 26.11 – The game power breakout doesn’t seem to be in the cards, and Fenway Park doesn’t do him any favors in that regard either. He hits it hard (89.1 MPH) with elite contact rates (13.4% K%), but the 8.4 degree launch kills his fantasy value, and he isn’t a speed guy either. He’ll still only be 26 when the season starts, so he wouldn’t be the first player to find their power stroke in their late 20’s. 2023 Projection: 80/15/72/.285/.339/.430/4

277) Brandon Nimmo NYM, OF, 30.0 – Nimmo lost some of his OBP God status with his BB% “tanking” to 10.5%. His .367 OBP was effectively a career low. His launch angle also hit a career low 6.1 degrees, which caps his power upside. He isn’t a high upside bat in 5×5 BA leagues, but he’s an excellent real life hitter who hits atop a dangerous lineup. 2023 Projection: 92/15/61/.273/.372/.430/4

278) Michael Conforto SFG, OF, 30.1 – Conforto finally signs with a team and of course he ends up in the home run killing Oracle Park. He had a down year in 2021 (.729 OPS), underwent shoulder surgery in 2022, and is now coming back to a bad ballpark. There is a lot going against him. He’s been such a rock solid, “professional” hitter in his career, I’m sure he will be fine in terms of real life value with high OBP’s, but I would hesitate to expect big time numbers in 5×5 BA leagues. 2023 Projection: 77/22/77/.257/.351/.449/3

279) Oscar Gonzalez CLE, OF, 25.3 – Gonzalez is a premium athlete at 6’4”, 240 pounds with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint speed) and plus power (113.3 Max EV-top 9%). The fantasy stats don’t quite match the talent though as he’s not a good base stealer, he hits the ball on the ground a lot with a 5.4 degree launch, and he doesn’t have a good plate approach with a 19.6%/3.9% K%/BB%. He put up an excellent 122 wRC+ with a .296 BA in his 91 game MLB debut, but it came with only 11 homers and 1 steal. I love to bet on an athlete like this, but this is who he has been his entire career and he’s already 25 years old, so counting on him making an adjustment doesn’t seem to be a smart bet. He can be solid as is, but the fantasy upside isn’t huge unless he makes an adjustment to unlock more power. 2023 Projection: 73/20/81/.278/.318/.450/3

280) Seth Brown OAK, 1B/OF, 30.9 – Brown was able to somewhat overcome Oakland’s terrible park and launched 25 homers in 150 games, although it came with only a .230 BA, .305 OPS, 55 runs, and 73 RBI. He salvaged some extra value with 11 steals, but if this is more or less the best we can get, it’s not super encouraging. He ranked 136th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. His price already bakes in all of that risk, so I have no issue acquiring him at fair value, but he’ll need a trade out of Oakland to take the next step. 2023 Projection: 64/26/78/.239/.310/.450/10

281) C.J. Cron COL, 1B, 33.3 – Cron started the season molten hot with a .902 OPS in 90 games pre break, but he fell apart post break with a .604 OPS in 60 games. The biggest problem with Cron is that his contract expires after the 2023 season, and his value will take a big hit if he leaves Coors. And he’s also 33 years old. Basically you have to consider him a 1 one year guy more or less. His profile was particularly exposed to the dead ball as a flyball hitter who doesn’t have huge exit velocities, but Coors softened the blow as he managed to crack 29 homers in 150 games (22 homers at home vs. 7 on the road). His plate approach collapsed too with a 25.9%/6.8% K%/BB% (21.4%/11% K%/BB% in 2021), and I’m not sure he can blame the dead balls on that. He’s a clear sell for me if you don’t need him for 2023. 2023 Projection: 74/28/88/.250/.323/.475/1

282) Trent Grisham SDP, OF, 26.5 – It was a nightmare season for Grisham where he was both bad and unlucky. He hit .184 with an 83 wRC+ in 152 games. His 26.2% whiff% and 28.6% K% were career worsts and he was getting benched often in the 2nd half. But you know what they say, it’s always darkest before the dawn, and I still see the ingredients for a mid to late 20’s breakout. He walks a ton with a 10.9% BB%, his exit velocity numbers are pretty good with an 88.3/93.9 MPH AVG/FB EV, and he hits the ball in the air with a 15.1 degree launch. His 8.1% Barrel% is well above average and he’s very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. This profile should produce a fantasy beast, but it just hasn’t, and like Max Kepler, I don’t want to keep banging my head against the wall expecting a different result. It’s why I’m no longer going out of my way to grab him, but I’ll still happily take a late round flier on him. 2023 Projection: 76/18/74/.237/.322/.416/14

283) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 23.9 – Prospects can fill your heart, but the career Kelenic is having is why we curse this game. There is nothing more painful in all of fantasy sports than acquiring a young prospect, letting him develop in your farm system, and then watching him implode in the majors. And implode is exactly what Jarred did, slashing .168/.251/.338 with 21 homers, 11 steals, and a 30.0%/9.3% K%/BB% in his 147 game career. He actually managed to get worse in year 2 with a .534 OPS, 33.7% K%, and 55 wRC+ in 54 games. I wrote in the Torkelson blurb for the Tigers Team Report that I’m almost more encouraged that Tork struggled at Triple-A too considering he ripped up Triple-A in 2021. It means it just might have been a down year, which happens to almost everyone in baseball. If he went right back to destroying Triple-A, I might think he has some kind of fatal flaw vs. MLB pitchers. Enter Jarred Kelenic, who continually gets sent back down to Triple-A and goes right back to raking. He was starting to show the weakest of pulses in September with 3 homes and a 1.107 OPS in the first 7 games of the month, but it was false hope as he closed out the season going 1 for 23. Even his upside isn’t what it used to be as he now has below average speed. He’s still only 23 years old, and he has nowhere to go but up (although I said that last year too), but his name value will still probably push his acquisition cost up higher than I would be willing to go. I’m staying away. 2023 Projection: 53/17/61/.228/.299/.405/9

284) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 24.7 – Milwaukee gave Mitchell the first shot out of their many minor league OF options, and both his risk and upside were on full display. He had a 92.9 MPH EV with a 30.2 ft/sec sprint speed, which led to 2 homers, 8 steals, and a .832 OPS in 68 PA, but it came with a horrific 41.2% whiff% and .266 xwOBA. His 31.5% whiff% wasn’t as bad as the K rate, and while his minor league K numbers were high, they weren’t high to an extreme level (25.6%). His groundball rates were extreme in the minors, but a 9.5 degree launch in the majors is just fine. The profile reminds me of Randy Arozarena. Good things tend to happen if you hit the ball hard, are fast, and can get on base (8.8% BB% in the majors). He mostly played CF and played it well with a 2.3 defensive value. I’m starting to really talk myself into Mitchell, and it seems like he’ll get the first shot at that CF job. I’ll definitely be scooping him up late in a few dynasty leagues this off-season. 2023 Projection: 58/10/42/.229/.301/.392/18 Prime Projection: 78/16/70/.248/.323/.418/28

285) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 25.0 – The Marvelous Mr. Mervis set the baseball world on fire with his AFL performance, smashing 6 homers with a .914 OPS in 17 games, but being brutally honest, the .262 BA and .324 OBP isn’t super impressive for a 24 year old who was almost 2 years older than the average player. It’s also an extreme offensive environment. I always caution against putting too much stock into the AFL numbers, but in Mervis’ case, it wasn’t just the AFL, he ripped up the upper minors too, slashing .309/.379/.606 with 36 homers and a 18.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 137 games split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). There is some platoon risk as he hits righties much better than lefties, and this was definitely the best year of his career by far with massive gains to both his power and contact, so there is some “career year” type risk here too. Chicago just signed Hosmer and Mancini, which shows they aren’t ready to just hand the 1B to Mervis, but long term, I think it’s just a road block. 2023 Projection: 49/17/56/.252/.317/.458/1 Prime Projection: 77/29/89/.264/.329/.482/2

286) Ezequiel Duran TEX, 3B/2B/OF, 23.11 – Duran didn’t hit the ball as hard as I would have liked in his 220 PA MLB debut with a 85.9 MPH EV, and it led to a very bad .256 xwOBA, but that was really the only concerning thing. His 92.2 MPH FB/LD EV isn’t great, but it’s more encouraging than his overall EV, he’s very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he didn’t show any major hit tool issues with a 24.5% K% and 28.9% whiff%. He hit the ball harder in the minors, so that EV number should rise as he gets more comfortable against MLB pitching. He jumped straight from Double-A (133 wRC+) to the majors (then got sent back down to Triple-A before getting called back up the majors), so it’s reasonable to expect some growing pains at the MLB level. He’s an explosive player who I’m buying this off-season, and he should come at a reasonable price with the mediocre debut. 2023 Projection: 38/10/39/.243/.307/.412/7 Prime Projection: 76/24/81/.257/.322/.454/13

287) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.0 – Rafaela is a small (5’8”), electric player who seems to be taking a page out of another small electric player’s playbook, Mookie Betts. Both of their swings start upright before bending into hitting position and exploding on the baseball. Boston obviously has a plan on developing these smaller ballplayers. Rafaela isn’t as good as Betts, but he had an eye opening season, slashing .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers, 28 steals, and a 113/26 K/BB split between High-A (156 wRC+ in 45 games) and Double-A (119 wRC+ in 71 games). He’s a plus defensive centerfielder which should help keep him on the field and mitigates the risk of his low walk rate (5% BB%). Take a star away in OBP leagues, but he could be a 5×5 BA beast in the mold of Cedric Mullins. 2023 Projection: 7/1/4/.245/.293/.390/2 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.261/.314/.423/22

288) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C/1B, 21.4 – Soderstrom’s plate approach was not as good as hoped in 2022 with a 26.1%/7.2% K%/BB% in 139 games spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), but the power was huge with 29 bombs. The numbers dropped off when he got to the upper minors (126 wRC+ in 89 games at High-A vs. 101 wRC+ in 36 games at Double-A), but considering how badly some other 20 years olds struggled at Double-A, Soderstrom performed well in comparison. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with a powerful lefty swing, so while the groundball rate is high, he’s the type who can still hit for power despite that, and it should keep the BA high especially with the new shift rules. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/25/79/.264/.328/.468/1

289) Bo Naylor CLE, C, 23.1 – Naylor just put up a 20/20 season in the upper minors with 26 homers and 20 steals in 118 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. His hit tool was much improved this year too with a 23.7%/16.1% K%/BB%, although the K% spiked to 25.9% at Triple-A and he was a strikeout machine in his very brief MLB cameo with 5 strikeouts in 8 PA. He hit the ball very hard in the 3 at bats he put the ball in play with a 93.9 MPH EV, which shows he has some real juice in his bat. The batting average might hurt you, but his contributions in steals should make up for it, and the starting Cleveland catcher job is his for the taking at the moment. 2023 Projection: 44/16/48/.226/.305/.413/7 Prime Projection: 67/23/76/.240/.325/.448/12

290) Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B, 21.1 – I named Ramos as one of my top targets last off-season as a prospect who was getting zero hype, writing, “This guy just looks like a player to me. It seems likely he will have plus power at peak, and he knows what he’s doing in the batter’s box. His numbers don’t jump out at you (109 wRC+ at Single-A), so that probably keeps him underrated (I think I’m guilty of underrating him myself), but the more I think about Ramos, the more I like him.” That evaluation was right on point as Ramos’ power exploded with 22 homers in 120 games and he maintained his excellent plate approach with a 16.6%/8.7% K%/BB%. He did most of his damage at High-A, and while his numbers dropped off at Double-A (70 wRC+ in 21 games), he was far from overmatched with 3 homers and a 17.4% K%. Even with his great year, he still doesn’t get the love he deserves. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/25/86/.277/.340/.469/4

291) Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – In Zavala’s 17 year old season he made it to full season ball and ripped 7 homers with a 118 wRC+ in 33 games. That is quite ridiculous, and it really doesn’t get the hype it deserves. He has a mature plate approach well beyond his years with a 13.5% BB%, and while the strikeout rate is high at 26.2%, it’s not in the danger zone. It’s even better considering how young he was. He’s a good athlete, and at 6’1”, 190 pounds without any groundball issues, there should only be more power coming from here. He’s a major target in off-season prospect drafts before his hype inevitably explodes in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 88/25/84/.269/.348/.462/8

292) Jackson Merrill SDP, SS, 19.11 – Merrill most certainly looks the part at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a beautiful lefty swing that oozes potential. He used that swing to hit very well at Single-A with a 125 wRC+ and 19.2%/8.7% K%/BB% in 45 games. The problem is that he has an extremely high 59.6% GB%. It was 59.2% in 31 rookie ball games in 2021, so it’s not an aberration. He’s not a burner, going 8 for 13 on the bases, so the power is going to be very important. He has the raw talent to make an adjustment to unlock more power, but I don’t want to go higher than this until he does. We’ve seen plenty of super talented, high groundball prospects never able to make that adjustment and end up better real life hitters than fantasy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 86/22/77/.278/.346/.442/8

293) Alexis Diaz CIN, Closer, 26.6 – It’s been said a million and one times, but no other position has as many guys who pop up and perform to truly elite levels. It’s why going cheap on closer is a very effective strategy. Diaz made his pro debut in 2022 and was immediately elite with a pitching line of 1.84/0.96/83/33 in 63.2 IP. He has that classic closer profile with 95.7 MPH gas combined with a plus slider (.234 xwOBA and 45% whiff%). He misses bats (32.5% K%) and induces weak contact (86.7 MPH EV against). Poor control is the one thing that can hold him back with a 12.9% BB%, but his control really wasn’t that horrific in his minor league career, so I’m not super concerned about that. He seems locked in as Cincy’s closer is a great 2nd/3rd tier closer to go after after the top guys go for a much much higher price. 2023 Projection: 4/3.22/1.16/85/26 saves in 65 IP

294) Jose Leclerc TEX, Closer, 29.4 – Texas’ OG closer of the future returned from Tommy John surgery in June and immediately re-established his nasty stuff with a 96.5 MPH fastball to go along with a slider and changeup that were both silly elite (.169 xwOBA and .188 xwOBA). It led to a 37.1% whiff% with a 2.83 ERA, and the cherry on top is that he had a career best 10.6% BB%. It’s not out of the question for Leclerc to be among the best closers in baseball next year, and it actually might be a very realistic outcome. He might be my top closer target. 2023 Projection: 3/3.08/1.15/86/29 saves in 60 IP

295) Alex Lange DET, Closer, 27.6 – Lange is in line for Detroit’s closer job with the Soto trade, and he has the potential to be a damn good one. A double plus curve is his most used pitch with a 48.8% usage, and it put up a silly 57.8% whiff%. He combines what with a 96.2 MPH sinker and an elite changeup that put up a .189 xwOBA and 56% whiff%. His control is the only flaw of his profile with a 11.4% BB%. He’s yet another reason why waiting on closer is the way to go. 2023 Projection: 4/3.33/1.22/85/28 saves in 65 IP

296) Luis Arraez MIA, 2B/1B, 26.0 – Arraez had the power “breakout” we were all waiting for, “demolishing” 8 homers in 144 games which doubles his previous career high. Just call him Luis Bonds Jr. The power “surge” didn’t diminish his contact abilities at all, notching an elite, career best 7.1% K% en route to a .316 BA. With offense down around the league, his .795 OPS was good for a 131 wRC+. Maybe there’s another level of power to unlock as he gets deeper into his 20’s, but I don’t think you can count on it. 2023 Projection: 81/9/52/.311/.366/.418/5

297) Eric Lauer MIL, LHP, 27.10 – Lauer was looking like a near ace for a minute there with a 2.38 ERA and 65/17 K/BB in his first 56.2 IP, but he put up a 4.41 ERA with a 92/42 K/BB in 102 IP the rest of the way. His fastball reached a career high 93.3 MPH and it turned into a plus pitch with a .271 xwOBA and 29.8% whiff%. None of his secondaries really popped enough though to propel him above a mid rotation starter. I wouldn’t rule out another level of production as he’s still relatively young, but you can’t really count on that. 2023 Projection: 11/3.74/1.24/161 in 165 IP

298) David Peterson NYM, LHP, 27.7 – Peterson’s velocity was up on all of his pitches (93.7 MPH fastball) and it led to his whiff% exploding to near elite levels at 30.2%. His slider in particular popped, putting up the 4th highest whiff% amongst starters at 47.9%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and keeps the ball on the ground with a 49.4% GB%. It led to a 3.83 ERA and 126/48 K/BB in 105.2 IP. The Jose Quintana injury opens up a spot in the rotation to start the season, and Peterson looks like the best bet to fill it. 2023 Projection: 8/3.67/1.28/139 in 130 IP

299) Nick Gordon MIN, 2B/OF, 27.5 – I want to go all in on Gordon, and tell you to target him everywhere, but there are enough snags to keep me hesitant to do so. He crushes the ball with a 90.6/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, but it only resulted in 9 homers in 443 PA. Some of that is likely bad luck, but Minnesota is a bad ballpark for homers, and while a 12.5 degree launch angle is good, it’s not necessarily optimal for homers. He has a below average whiff% (27.8%), a bad walk rate (4.3%), and he’s not really that fast (6 steals with a 61 percentile sprint speed). He’s the type I’m hoping will drop in drafts, allowing me to get him a great price, rather than the type I’m willing to go a round or 2 early on to make sure I get him. 2023 Projection: 74/18/77/.268/.321/.448/10

300) Luis Urias MIL, SS/2B/3B, 25.10 – The only way for Urias to take the next step is to hit the ball harder. You are only going to get so far with a 87.3/91.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He keeps raising his launch angle with a career high 18 degree launch, but that is just going to result in a lower batting average if he can’t add more power. He’s still only 25 years old, so a mid 20’s power uptick is very possible, but I would need to see it first before going after him. 2023 Projection: 76/22/71/.245/.338/.420/3

301) Adalberto Mondesi BOS, SS, 26.8 – The trade to Boston really doesn’t change Mondesi’s value all that much as it was never about the team or ballpark with him. He underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL after just 15 games. He played terribly in those games too with a .344 OPS and 37% K%. Even his speed has been in decline with a 30 ft/sec sprint speed in 2019, 29.4 in 2020, 28.5 in 2021, and 27.4 in 2022. I’m a sucker for upside, but this was the last straw for me, which means maybe now is when you can truly get a dirt cheap buy low price … it never ends ha. 2023 Projection: 56/13/53/.232/.289/.403/24

302) Harrison Bader NYY, OF, 28.3 – Bader jacked 5 homers in 86 regular season games, and then went out and equaled that in 9 post season games. Unfortunately, his 83.4/87.7 MPH AVG/FB EV says the playoff homer binge likely isn’t a sign of things to come. It’s really hard for me to buy into a player with such a low EV, but Bader has turned himself into an above average contact hitter (19.8% K%) with elite speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint). Maybe the Yanks can unlock another level to his offense. 2023 Projection: 68/16/63/.254/.314/.410/19 Update: Will start the year on the IL with an oblique injury but he could return in mid to late April.

303) Sal Frelick MIL, OF, 23.0 – Frelick flew though 3 levels of the minors (A+, AA, AAA), and his elite plate approach (11.2%/9.6% K%/BB%) shined at each level. He’s one of the safest prospects in the minors. His upside is the issue as he has high groundball rates and limited power (11 homers). He has plus speed, but he didn’t exactly run like crazy with 24 steals in 32 attempts over 119 games. Steven Kwan is a perfect comp really, so if you want safety, I can see ranking him #2 on this list. 2023 Projection: 31/4/22/.265/.327/.388/7 Prime Projection: 86/13/59/.282/.350/.407/19

304) Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 25.3 – Stowers seems to be the forgotten prospect in Baltimore, but his power hitting upside is very real. He cracked 19 homers in 95 games at Triple-A and then got called up to the majors and put up a 91.1 MPH EV with a 107 wRC+ in 98 PA. He’s a lefty that might actually hit lefties better than righties, so there isn’t major platoon risk. He only had a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, and there are hit tool concerns with a 29.6% K%, but he will be an excellent later round shot to take in the majority of dynasty leagues. 2023 Projection: 69/24/76/.242/.317/.448/2 Prime Projection: 75/28/84/.253/.326/.470/3

305) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1 – Wesburg’s power exploded this year, jacking 27 homers in 138 games split between Double-A and Triple-A after hitting 15 homers in 112 games in 2021. He’s a former 1st round pick who’s an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 203 pounds and has a mature plate approach with a 23.6%/11.3% K%/BB%. He was actually better at Triple-A (129 wRC+ in 91 games) than he was at Double-A (122 wRC+ in 47 games). He’s a big part of the season why I’m concerned Mateo ends up in a super utility role. 2023 Projection: 47/12/51/.246/.312/.408/6 Prime Projection: 74/24/79/.261/.328/.443/11

306) Jorge Mateo BAL, SS, 27.10 – Mateo is one my top sells this off-season. Those 13 homers and 35 steals are going to look mighty enticing to a speed needy team, but he still ranked only 114th overall on the Razzball Player Rater because of weak production everywhere else. He had a .221 BA with 63 runs and 50 RBI. His underlying numbers look even worse with a .272 xwOBA which is in the bottom 6% of the league, and his plate approach is terrible with a 27.6%/5.1% K%/BB%. I’m not even sure the new stolen base rules are going to help him because he doesn’t get on base enough to take advantage of it, and steals aren’t going to be as hard to find next year in general. If those were the only issues, I might not even be too scared off, but Baltimore’s stacked minor league system is breathing down his neck with Gunnar Henderson, Connor Norby, and Jordan Westburg ready to stake their rightful claim to the infield. Mateo was an excellent defensive SS last year, but I don’t think it will be enough for him to hold down the starting job. I think he’ll be a super utility player by the 2nd half of the season. 2023 Projection: 68/11/53/.230/.277/.385/28

307) Colson Montgomery CHW, SS, 21.1 – Montgomery most certainly looks the part at 6’4”, 200 pounds with a strong and steady lefty swing that is geared for power and average. He destroyed Single-A with a 152 wRC+ in 45 games, and he performed well at the more age appropriate High-A with a 125 wRC+ and 15.9%/15.9% K%/BB% in 37 games. Like many 20 year olds, he struggled hard when he got to Double-A with a 28.8% K% and 19 wRC+ in 14 games. He doesn’t steal any bases and his 11 homers in 96 games doesn’t jump off the page, so this is more of a scouting bet than anything. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/23/78/.269/.346/.454/3

308) Esteury Ruiz OAK, OF, 24.2 – Many a prospect has ripped up the minors only to struggle hard in the majors because they just don’t hit the ball hard enough. It’s like a 5’10” point guard in college basketball who can dominate in college, but gets eaten up in the NBA. That is the risk with Ruiz. He went nuclear in the upper minors, slashing .332/.447/.526 with 16 homers, 85 steals (that isn’t a typo), and a 94/66 K/BB in 114 games, but his EV numbers weren’t good and he put up a 73 MPH EV, 100.2 MPH MAX EV and a .452 OPS in his 36 PA MLB debut. The reason he is ranked this high, is because this man stole 85 bases. That just isn’t done these days. He also has more raw power than is showing up in the EV numbers and he should only get stronger as he matures. Jorge Mateo is a reasonable floor comp, and I think he ends up a level above Mateo. The trade to Oakland gives him a clear path to playing time. 2023 Projection: 53/9/44/.226/.292/.365/25 Prime Projection: 75/13/58/.242/.316/.397/36

309) Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montas underwent shoulder surgery and will attempt to make it back before the end of the season. His value already took a hit going from the friendly, no pressure confines of Oakland to the pressure cooker in New York. Considering the huge dose of injury risk, and the fact he isn’t all that young, I would be hesitant to go after him even if you aren’t planning on competing this year. 2023 Projection: OUT

310) Josh Rojas ARI, 3B/2B, 28.9 – Rojas all of a sudden started running a ton and it paid off with 23 steals in 26 attempts. It’s not even like he’s very fast with a below average 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed, so predicting the stolen base breakout was nearly impossible. It’s just another reminder how hard it is to predict steals. There isn’t much power in the bat and he has a career .256 BA, so you really have to count on him continuing to run to provide fantasy value, and that seems like a risky bet to me. 2023 Projection: 76/12/63/.266/.342/.409/16

311) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B, 27.6 – As I expected, Kim was much better in his 2nd run through the majors with a 17.2%/8.8% K%/BB%, 12 steals, and an almost average .309 xwOBA in 150 games (.265 xwOBA in 2021), but he’s still not hitting the ball hard enough with a 86.7 MPH EV and 11 homers to get really excited. His starting role is also a question when Tatis returns, although it is not a foregone conclusion he loses it if they use Tatis in the OF. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as a starter for my fantasy team, but he makes for an optimal bench bat, and I think he could take yet another leap in his 3rd year in the league. 2023 Projection: 68/15/68/.260/.330/.410/14

312) Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 25.6 – Kirilloff just can’t shake this wrist injury. His season ended in August when he once again underwent surgery on his right wrist. The wrist was bothering him all year and he didn’t hit well with a .651 OPS in 45 games. Not only is the injury a major concern, but it’s most certainly stunted his development, and prevented him from getting comfortable at the MLB level. He’s such a natural hitter I think he has the ability to overcome this, but he’s getting dangerously close to flier only territory. He also might start the year on the IL because of the wrist. 2023 Projection: 52/15/58/.262/.323/.438/1

313) Nick Pratto KCR, 1B, 24.7 – I’m not gonna lie, Pratto’s poor MLB debut has me a little concerned. His 86/91.7 MPH AVG/FB EV was well below average and he plays in a very terrible ballpark for lefty homers. We already knew his K% was going to be an issue, and it was with a 36.3% K%. With an extreme 19.7 degree launch, it is a recipe for an extremely low BA, which is exactly what happened with a .184 BA. He even struggled with BA at Triple-A with a .228 BA in 82 games. I hoped his willingness to run in the minors would offset some of the batting average issues, but he didn’t attempt a single steal in 182 PA. I’m hesitant to completely jump ship based on a poor rookie season, but I’m not going to be going after Pratto in 2023. 2023 Projection: 44/14/47/.212/.305/.424/4 Prime Projection: 78/28/78/.225/.324/.450/5

314) Joey Wiemer MIL, OF, 24.2 – Wiemer is such at freak athlete at 6’5”, 215 pounds, there is zero question that his power/speed combo will translate no matter what level of competition. He had a rough go of it at Double-A in 84 games with a 30.2%/9.1% K%/BB% and 98 wRC+, but it still didn’t stop him from cracking 15 homers and stealing 25 bags. He then got promoted to Triple-A and proved his hit tool wasn’t a lost cause, slashing .287/.368/.520 with 6 homers, 6 steals, and a 19.5%/12.1% K%/BB% in 43 games. He won’t hit for a high average in the majors, but he only has to get to below average to be a fantasy baseball difference maker. 2023 Projection: 28/8/36/.227/.304/.428/6 Prime Projection: 69/25/79/.238/.314/.455/15

315) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 23.5 – 2022 was the first speed bump in Davis’ career, and you can’t completely jump ship at the very first sign of struggle with a prospect as talented as Davis. You have to give him a chance to overcome adversity. He underwent back surgery and struggled at Triple-A both before and after the injury with a 77 wRC+ in 44 games at Triple-A. He played in the AFL where he teased his huge potential with a 1.048 OPS in 5 games, but was then shutdown with “general soreness” which they claim is unrelated to the back injury. No two ways about it, it was a disaster year, but years like this happen in baseball. He’s still an elite athlete at 6’4”, 210 pounds. I would be surprised if he didn’t come back with a big year in 2023. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.229/.304/.430/4 Prime Projection: 79/27/82/.253/.332/.470/8

316) Dustin Harris TEX, OF/1B, 23.9 – Harris only had a 107 wRC+ in 85 games at Double-A, but the individual components looked even better with 17 homers, 19 steals, and a 19.4%/11% K%/BB%. He hit the ball in the air a ton with a 29.1% GB%, which is great for homers, but also means his .257 BA was not only the result of bad luck. He’s getting surprisingly little hype considering he doesn’t have many weaknesses, including being a lefty who hits lefties well. Well, I guess he does have one weakness, defense, and that could be his biggest hurdle to playing time. 2023 Projection: 17/5/19/.244/.309/.429/3 Prime Projection: 78/26/83/.258/.335/.472/12

317) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

318) Luis Ortiz PIT, RHP, 24.2 – Ortiz had an eye opening MLB debut in September. He came up firing a 98.4 MPH fastball with a plus slider that put up a 47.3% whiff%. The stuff is straight filthy. It only led to a 4.50 ERA in 16 IP because his control is shaky (14.5% BB%) and he needs to improve his changeup (5.1% usage). His 4.56 ERA in 124.1 IP at mostly Double-A also isn’t that impressive, but the 138/38 K/BB looks much better. There is plenty of reliver risk, but Pitt has no reason not to give him every opportunity to start. There is ace upside ceiling if everything truly comes together, but mid rotation starter with high K rates is a more realistic good outcome scenario. 2023 Projection: 6/3.98/1.33/103 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.55/1.22/181 in 165 IP

319) Henry Davis PIT, C, 23.6 – Davis was limited to just 59 games battling a recurring wrist injury and it certainly seemed to negatively impact his performance with a 97 wRC+ in 31 games once he got to Double-A. He’s in the AFL and while he’s hitting well overall with a .875 OPS, it’s come with only 1 homer in 17 games. He destroyed High-A before the injury with a 181 wRC+ in 22 games, and his contact rates were above average all season, so I’m betting on his power being just fine in the long run. Even with the Endy Rodriguez breakout, there is nothing but opportunity in Pittsburgh. 2023 Projection: 28/8/32/.246/.318/.424/2 Prime Projection: 72/25/82/.263/.332/.470/6

320) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

321) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 20.9 – Alcantara didn’t have the huge statistical breakout, but he still hit damn well, slashing .273/.360/.451 with 15 homers, 14 steals, and a 24.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 112 games at Single-A. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6”, 188 pounds and is an excellent athlete, playing mostly in CF. He’s extremely easy to dream on with upside for days. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/81/.250/.327/.466/11

322) Brooks Lee MIN, SS, 22.1 – Selected 8th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lee is a switch hitter with a very simple and easy swing from both sides of the plate. He’s an advanced hitter who has hit for high averages everywhere he’s been in his amateur career (.354 BA with 117/98 K/BB in 209 games, including the Cape), and he took his power to the next level this year with 15 homers in 58 games. He then stepped into pro ball and didn’t miss a beat with a 15.8%/14% K%/BB% and 4 homers in 25 games at High-A. He got a small taste of Triple-A and went 3 for 8 in 2 games. Lee could be the safest bat in this year’s First Year Player Draft. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 89/22/77/.278/.346/.464/5

323) Gavin Cross KC, OF, 22.2 – Selected 9th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Cross is a big hulking slugger at 6’3”, 215 pounds, and he lived up to his stature with 17 homers and a .660 SLG in 57 ACC games before hitting pro ball and jacking 8 homers in 29 games at mostly Single-A. He’s also a pretty good athlete with the ability to play CF and nab a few bags. There is a little swing and miss in his game evidenced by a 25.2% K% in 26 games at Single-A, but he’s the type who could maintain a good BA regardless. His very strong pro debut (174 wRC+) makes it easy to buy in. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/26/83/.260/.337/.469/7

324) Masataka Yoshida BOS, OF, 29.9 – If you’re in a 30 teamer or super deep roster 20+ team league, I can see taking Yoshida as high as 3rd overall. In those leagues there are sometimes (or almost always) zero players who get more than like 300 PA on the waiver wire. It makes securing a player like Yoshida valuable. Yoshida’s game is elite contact rates (8.1% K%) with an elite plate approach (15.7% BB%) and some power (21 homers in 121 games). He’s only 5’8”, 176 pounds, and Fenway Park is below average for lefty homers, so I would hesitate to expect big homer totals. He also isn’t a big base stealer. The upside isn’t huge, he’s already pushing 30, and there is risk with that inherent unknown of moving to a new league in a new country, but I’m definitely betting on Yoshida being a legit MLB hitter. 2023 Projection: 83/16/65/.281/.342/.428/5

325) Jose Urquidy HOU, RHP, 27.11 – Urquidy has Hunter Brown breathing down his neck, and while I think his rotation spot is safe, the leash will not be long. He’s a plus control (5.6% BB%), limited upside type with a 3.94 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 164.1 IP. I never fully understood the hype he got over these last few years. His xERA was much worse at 4.56, but he’s been outdoing his xERA his entire career. I think Houston is more likely to go to some form of a 6 man rotation if everyone is pitching well than, but as we all know, these things usually work themselves out with injuries. 2023 Projection: 11/3.81/1.16/139 in 160 IP

326) Andrew Benintendi CHW, OF, 28.9 – Benintendi is an above average real life hitter with an elite 14.8%/10% K%/BB%, but there isn’t much power (5 homers in 126 games) or speed (8 steals with a 27.5 ft/sec sprint). His raw power does seem to be ticking up with 89+ MPH EV’s in his last 2 years, so if his power popped in his age 28 year old season it wouldn’t be a shock. 2023 Projection: 78/15/71/.278/.349/.418/10

327) DJ LeMahieu NYY, 1B/2B/3B, 34.9 – LeMehieu was dealing with a toe injury for most of the season and it limited him to 125 games. It’s the least amount of games he’s played in since 2013 other than the pandemic year. Maybe it contributed to him putting up a career low .261 BA and .274 xBA, but at the same time he had a career high 12.4% BB% and his .344 xwOBA was right in line with career norms. An aging hitter who doesn’t have that much fantasy upside to begin with isn’t my favorite target, but the underlying numbers don’t really shows signs of decline quite yet. 2023 Projection: 84/14/58/.277/.355/.408/5

328) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 27.10 – Moncada bottomed out in 2022 with a cover your eyes horrific triple-slash of .212/.273/.353. He’s declining like he’s in his mid 30’s with his speed dropping to a mediocre 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed. His plate approach is poor (26.3%/7.4% K%/BB%) and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard anymore with a 88.7 MPH EV. There is nothing in the underlying numbers or overlying numbers that say a bounce back is coming. You would merely be betting on his former hype, and that seems like a poor bet to me. I’m not buying low on Moncada. 2023 Projection: 69/17/73/.247/.322/.415/3

329) Michael Massey KCR, 2B, 25.0 – Massey’s surface stats didn’t pop in his MLB debut with 4 homers and a .683 OPS in 52 games, but the underlying numbers were much more encouraging. He had an above average 89.3/93 MPH AVG/FB EV with a 16.4 degree launch angle and 23.4% K%. He put up an excellent 13% Barrel%. He also destroyed the upper levels of the minors with 16 homers and a .903 OPS in 87 games. His 108.8 MPH Max EV shows he isn’t a huge raw power guy, and KC has a terrible ballpark for homers (it’s above average for righties though overall), so while I don’t think he’ll be a major difference maker, I do think he can make an impact in deeper leagues especially. 2023 Projection: 59/17/63/.264/.322/.423/6 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.268/.333/.441/8

330) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 24.7 – Hall’s had major control issues his entire career and it really didn’t take a step forward this year with a 14.2% BB% and 1.45 WHIP in 76.2 IP at Triple-A. His stuff is utter filth, so he can be effectively wild with a whiff inducing 96.2 MPH fastball to go along with a potentially plus slider, change, and curve. The stuff translated against MLB hitters with a 29.7%/9.4% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP mostly coming out the pen, albeit with a 5.93 ERA (2.57 ERA). Baltimore’s rotation is so weak at the moment, there is no reason they wouldn’t give him every opportunity to start, and he has legitimate ace upside if the control takes a step or two forward. 2023 Projection: 7/3.95/1.37/130 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.65/1.32/195 in 172 IP

331) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

332) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – Norby must have been bored at High-A because he lifted off when he got to the upper minors. He put a 99 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, a 158 wRC+ in 64 games at Double-A, and a 190 wRC+ in 9 games at Triple-A. It resulted in 29 dingers, 16 steals, and a 20.8%/10.1% K%/BB% in 121 games. It’s a do it all profile and it shouldn’t be long before he gets his first shot at the bigs. 2023 Projection: 58/14/61/.258/.324/.427/7 Prime Projection: 82/22/78/.275/.339/.450/10

333) Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.0 – Amador put up truly elite contact (12.1%) and walk (15.7% BB%) rates in 115 games at Single-A, making him one of the safest lower minor prospects in the game. There is little doubt this guy will be a major leaguer, the only question is how high his upside is. He doesn’t have huge raw power and he put up a 53.8% GB%, although 15 homers in 115 games ain’t bad. He’s fast, but he’s been a low percentage base stealer in his career (36 for 55 in 162 games). Some guys in this bucket do explode to elite status like Jose Ramirez, so I’m hesitant to cap his upside, but I don’t think it’s a fair expectation. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/18/70/.282/.356/.429/14

334) Cal Quantrill CLE, RHP, 28.2 – Cal Quantrill brought the smoke and mirrors with him from 2021 into 2022, once again thoroughly outperforming his underlying numbers with a 3.38 ERA vs. 4.31 xERA. His swing and miss actually got even worse with his K% dropping 3 percentage points to 16.6%. He fanned only 128 batters in 186.1 IP. He’s the son of a former MLB pitcher, and understands the art of pitching with plus control (6.1% BB%) of a 5 pitch mix that induces weak contact (87.6 EV against), so I don’t think it is just good luck, but it’s also not a fantasy friendly profile I would go out of my to acquire. 2023 Projection: 12/3.76/1.22/140 in 180 IP

335) Tyler Anderson LAA, LHP, 33.3 – I mentioned a few years ago in regards to Houston that I suspected their success with pitchers wasn’t just about them being a great developmental organization. They likely have an advantage with pitch calling. Knowing what pitch to throw and where to each specific batter in each specific count. That’s about 150 decisions per game that can have a huge impact on the game. You better believe smarter organizations are better at this than dumber organizations. Not to mention defensive positioning, but I’ll mention it anyway … defensive positioning. This also obviously holds true with the Dodgers. All of this to say, Tyler Anderson’s production with the Dodgers should not be expected to roll over with the Angels. That’s not to say there weren’t some legitimate development gains that should roll over. He threw his changeup slower than ever at 79 MPH and it excelled with a .223 xwOBA and 37% whiff%. He also spent most of his career with Colorado that seemed to create some bad habits. His control improved each year out of that pitching hell with it hitting a career best 4.8%. He’s 33 years old and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (19.5% K%), so even if he was still with the Dodgers, I may have been hesitant to go after him in Dynasty. Now that he’s with the Angels, I’m thinking his great 2022 will push his value higher than I’m willing to go. 2023 Projection: 10/3.79/1.23/129 in 165 IP

336) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B, 19.9 – Caminero has ran roughshod with a plus hit/power combo over every league he’s played in. He put up a .914 OPS in the DSL in 2021, a .895 OPS in stateside rookie ball in 2022, a .864 OPS at Single-A in 2022, and a .895 OPS in the ABL (Australia) in 2022/23. It’s good for a .302 BA with 27 homers and a 17.5%/9.7% K%/BB% in 129 career games across all levels. He has a quick and athletic righty swing that is very easy to project on. He could end up with plus hit and plus power, although I think above average in each is a more fair projection. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/26/88/.276/.338/.475/5

337) Alex Ramirez NYM, OF, 20.6 – The super projectable Ramirez remains super projectable at a skinny 6’3”, so even though he hit only 11 homers in 121 games, there is much more coming down the road. The more encouraging thing is that he started to refine his game in 2022 with a very good 22.9%/9.2% K%/BB% in 67 games at Single-A and a 22%/6.5% K%/BB% in 54 games at High-A. It led to a 129 wRC+ at the age appropriate Single-A and a 109 wRC+ at High-A. He’s a poor base stealer, going 21 for 37 on the bases (4 for 11 at High-A), so he’ll probably only contribute a handful at peak especially as he slows down, but Ramirez has the type of skillset that could explode into elite prospect territory in short order. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.268/.333/.458/11

338) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 19.1 – Bleis is a scout’s dream. He’s a long and lean 6’3”, 170 pounds with a quick and athletic swing. The high priced international signing played well in 2021 in the DSL, but he really exploded this year at stateside rookie ball, slashing .301/.353/.543 with 5 homers, 18 steals, and a 26.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 40 games. He’s not a finished product as evidenced by his plate approach numbers, but if you’re looking for the type who could be an elite prospect very quickly into 2023, Bleis is your guy. ETA: 2025/26 Prime Projection: 75/22/80/.252/.317/465/14

339) Tyler Stephenson CIN, C, 26.8 – Stephenson has the classic profile that I just don’t love buying in fantasy. He’s a line drive hitter who doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard and has a good but not great plate approach. This type of profile can lead to a solid Ty France like season, but I aim for higher upside in fantasy. Stephenson was in the midst of having that France-like season with a .854 OPS and 6 homers in 50 games before a fractured clavicle which required surgery ended his year (he also missed time with a thumb injury). The underlying numbers looked much weaker though with a .318 xwOBA (.370 wOBA) and 25.7%/6.6% K%/BB%. He plays in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league, and he’s 6’4”, 225 pounds, so he’s not completely without upside, but it’s not a profile I go after. 2023 Projection: 61/16/69/.270/.338/.432/1

340) Hayden Wesneski CHC, RHP, 25.4 – Wesneski impressed in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.18/0.94/33/7 in 33 IP. He did it on the back of near elite control (5.3% BB%) and weak contact (84.5 MPH EV against). I’m still staying a bit hesitant because he didn’t show this level of control or production at Triple-A with a 3.92 ERA and 106/33 K/BB in 110.1 IP, and his stuff isn’t exactly overpowering with a 93.1 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a decent, but not elite 33.3% whiff%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and he understands the art of the pitching, so I think he’ll be a solid MLB starter, but I’m not sure he’s going to be a fantasy difference maker. 2023 Projection: 8/4.15/1.28/136 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.22/171 in 170 IP

341) Nathan Eovaldi TEX, RHP, 33.3 – Eovaldi was limited to 109.1 IP battling a variety of injuries (shoulder, hip, back). It’s not a great sign as he gets deeper in his 30’s, and his stuff was diminished from it with a 9 year low 95.7 MPH fastball. That is still plenty fast, and he pounds the strikezone (4.3% BB%) with a 5 pitch mix, leading to a strong 3.87 ERA. Texas felt comfortable enough with him to give him a 2 year, $34 million contract. Expect mid rotation starter production. 2023 Projection: 10/3.81/1.21/155 in 160 IP

342) Spencer Steer CIN, SS/2B/3B, 25.4 – Low EV numbers in a prospects MLB debut are a bit scary to me, and Steer’s 84.7 MPH EV in 108 PA put a halt to his hype train from the destruction he laid in the upper minors. He slashed .274/.364/.515 with 23 homers, 4 steals, and a 89/51 K/BB in 106 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit the ball harder in the minors, but he’s no Aaron Judge, and at 25 years old already, it’s hard to say there is much more power coming. It wasn’t all bad in the majors as he showed a strong plate approach with a 24.1%/10.2% K%/BB% and an above average 24.8% Chase%. His 90.1 MPH FB/LD EV also isn’t as hopeless as his average, and I don’t want to put too much weight on the small sample. He’s in a great ballpark and I’m betting on those EV numbers coming up enough for Steer to do damage. I would buy his poor MLB debut. 2023 Projection: 44/14/42/.250/.316/.419/3 Prime Projection: 77/23/76/.267/.334/.446/5

343) Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN, 1B/3B, 23.4 – Strand has destroyed every level he’s been at, putting up a 1.103 OPS in 2021 in the Big 12, a 1.022 OPS at Single-A in 2021, a .986 OPS at High-A in 2022, and a .934 OPS at Double-A in 2022. He has big time power, smashing 32 homers in 122 games split between High-A and Double-A this year. The plate approach isn’t great with a 25.0%/4.8% K%/BB% at Double-A, and he’s not a good defensive player, so he will likely have to scratch and claw for playing time. The trade to Cincinnati from Minnesota gives him both a major ballpark upgrade and also an opportunity upgrade. 2023 Projection: 11/4/13/.233/.298/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/81/.247/.316/.462/3

344) Will Benson CIN, OF, 24.10 – Benson’s trade to Cincinnati is an absolute boon for his value. It is very possible, and maybe likely, that Cincinnati does not have a single legitimate MLB starting OF on their roster. I’ll take it a step further and say it is possible they don’t even have a single future MLB starting OF in their entire organization. Odds are that someone emerges from the fringe options they have at all levels, but that is exactly the point, because if it’s Benson who emerges, you are not going to want to see him on another person’s dynasty team. He was always trending towards being a late career breakout type. A guy whose elite athleticism would be patiently waiting for his baseball skills to catch up. And those baseball skills caught up in a big way last year with him drastically cutting his strikeout rate to a very reasonable 22.7%. He has a near elite power/speed combo and now will be hitting in an amazing hitter’s park with nothing but opportunity. He’s a buy in all league types. 2023 Projection: 46/14/42/.231/.310/.429/11 Prime Projection: 79/24/78/.240/.321/.443/16

345) Pedro Leon HOU, OF/2B, 24.10 – Leon has huge fantasy upside with a plus power/speed combo that led to 17 homers and 38 steals in 115 games at Triple-A, but his 28.8% K% and .228 BA creates major risk. He’s also already 24 years old, so it will likely be an issue his entire career. He walks a ton with a 14.1% BB%, and he’s a premium athlete, so he has the talent to overcome a low batting average. Houston’s OF is also pretty wide open at the moment after Kyle Tucker, so Houston might be extra patient with him when he finally gets his shot. 2023 Projection: 29/9/32/.218/.302/.403/10 Prime Projection: 78/24/74/.233/.320/.435/18

346) Brayan Rocchio CLE, SS/2B, 22.3 – Rocchio is a safe prospect who is a plus defensive player and has plus contact rates, but I’m worried about his fantasy upside. He doesn’t have big raw power at 5’10”, 170 pounds, and while he has plus speed, he’s a poor base stealer going 14 for 23. His numbers in the upper levels of the minors were solid, but not standout, slashing .257/.336/.420 with 18 homers, 14 steals, and a 102/54 K/BB in 132 games. He’s not a target of mine, and because he has strong name value, if I owned him I would be willing to put him on the block for win now production. 2023 Projection: 16/3/13/.252/.301/.393/3 Prime Projection:  81/18/68/.273/.330/.431/12

347) Aaron Civale CLE, RHP, 27.10 – Civale had a rough year battling through a few injuries with a 4.92 ERA in 97 IP, but he finished the year strong with a 3.23 ERA and 42/7 K/BB in his final 39 IP. His strikeouts were up on the year in general with a career high 24.1% K%, and his 3.80 xERA shows he likely got unlucky early in the year. There were legitimate pitch mix changes. He threw his cutter and curve more and his 4-seamer, splitter and slider less. The slider gives hope the changes could stick in 2023, and with better luck, there seems to be some real breakout potential. 2023 Projection: 10/3.78/1.20/144 in 150 IP

348) Clarke Schmidt NYY, RHP, 27.1 – The Montas and Rodon injuries opens the door for Schmidt (and Domingo German). He improved his slider in 2022 and he went to it as his most used pitch with a 37.9% usage. It put up a .240 xwOBA with a 41% whiff%. He uses a 94.9 MPH sinker to keep the ball on the ground with a 4 degree launch, and his curve is a damn good pitch too that put up a .199 xwOBA. He also throws a 4 seamer and changeup that both got hit up. It all led to a 3.12 ERA with a 23.7%/9.7% K%/BB%. It’s a pretty intriguing profile that has mid-rotation upside if he can hold onto that rotation spot. 2023 Projection: 8/3.92/1.29/116 in 120 IP

349) Mike Soroka ATL, RHP, 25.8 – Soroka tore his right Achilles twice and hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2020. He was able to make it back for a few starts at Triple-A to close out the year and he understandably looked a bit rusty with a 5.40 ERA in 25 IP.  The more important thing is that he remained healthy, and the stuff looked mostly back with that devasting sinker. It’s probably unreasonable to expect him to continue his original career trajectory, but there is certainly potential for him to get back to being a good MLB starter. The injury risk and the fact he wasn’t a big strikeout guy to begin with means I’m not going to go out of my way to get him. 2023 Projection: 7/4.05/1.29/101 in 120 IP

350) Yanquiel Fernandez COL, OF, 19.8 – Fernandez could be the most underrated prospect in the minors. He has a sweet lefty swing that screams impact MLB player. It’s quick and powerful from a 6’2”, 200 pound frame. It led to 21 homers in 112 games at Single-A. It also doesn’t come with any hit tool issues as he had a 21.8% K% and .284 BA. This is a very legitimate middle of the order bat profile, and he’s being valued at ridiculously dirt cheap prices right now. I would jump all over Fernandez this off-season. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/30/93/.261/.328/.487/4

351) Carson Williams TBR, SS, 19.9 – Williams is a long and lean 6’2”, 180 pounds with plus speed and an explosive righty swing that screams upside. He smacked 19 homers with 28 steals and a 124 wRC+ in 113 games at Single-A. The one holdup is that he stuck out 32.1% of the time. That is firmly in the danger zone, but considering his athleticism and the fact he is very young for his class, I’m betting on that coming down enough to let his other tools shine. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/24/79/.243/.322/.447/14

352) Edwin Arroyo CIN, SS, 19.7 – Arroyo had a huge start to the season, cracking 12 homers in his first 63 games, but he hit only 2 homers in 53 games the rest of the way. His K% took a step back too, putting up a 22.8% K% in 87 games with Seattle and a 28.4% K% in 27 games after getting traded to Cincinnati. He had a high BABIP and a mediocre 8.5% BB%. He’s not some insane athlete, the hit tool has risk, and there isn’t big raw power. I say all this to just give some caution, because he had a damn exciting triple slash of .293/.366/.480 with 14 homers and 27 steals at Single-A. The upside isn’t huge, but it’s hard not to be impressed by this level of performance from someone who was 18 years old for most of the year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/72/.258/.320/.427/18

353) Brendan Donovan STL, 3B/2B/OF, 26.3 – Donovan is basically the anti-Gorman, and could be Gorman’s first road block to a full time job. He has an elite plate approach with a 15%/12.8% K%/BB%, and that is about it with little power or speed. He hit .281 with a .394 OBP, 5 homers, and 2 steals in 126 games. He’s not a great defensive player, but he has a better glove than Gorman. For fantasy purposes, it would be easier if Gorman had the full time job, but Donovan is too good of a real life hitter for St. Louis to just faze him out. He’s not going anywhere. 2023 Projection: 79/12/61/.276/.368/.408/6 Update: Donovan came into camp with a goal to increase his power, using a more upright batting stance and finding a new bat, and it seems to be working with him jacking 2 homers already in 18 spring PA. He’s not gong to become a power hitter all of a sudden, but even a small uptick in power is a big deal considering his elite plate approach. He goes from a Nolan Gorman roadblock, to a possible target himself.

354) Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 27.0 – Keller took a step forward in 2022 with a career best 3.91 ERA in 159 IP, and he was especially good in the 2nd half with a 2.71 ERA and 72/28 K/BB in 83 IP. His fastball ticked up to 95.5 MPH, his control improved with a respectable 8.7% BB%, and he kept the ball on the ground with a 7.8 degree launch. He still isn’t missing enough bats with a 20.1% K%, and none of his secondaries are really standout, so I’m not going crazy for him, but he is finally giving up something to get excited about. 2023 Projection: 9/3.81/1.31/140 in 160 IP Update: His new cutter actually looks damn good

355) Jameson Taillon CHC, RHP, 31.4 – The Yanks weren’t able to unlock that next level of production from Taillon as hoped, but he continued to be a rock solid arm with a 3.91 ERA and 151/32 K/BB in 177.1 IP. He’s a mid rotation guy. 2023 Projection: 10/3.95/1.19/155 in 175 IP

356) Miles Mikolas STL, RHP, 34.7 – It’s all about plus control for Mikolas as he had an elite 4.8% BB% which led to a 3.29 ERA in 202.1 IP. He’s not a big K guy with only 153 K’s, and he’s reliant on good defense and good fortune with a 3.89 xERA, but he can be a stabilizing force in your fantasy rotation if you generally like going after high upside, high K arms who might not rack up innings. 2023 Projection: 12/3.68/1.16/145 in 185 IP

357) J.D. Martinez LAD, DH, 35.7 – Martinez gets the Dodgers seal of approval, but they only paid him $10 million, which isn’t a lot in this market. He very clearly declined in 2022 with a career worst 89.1 MPH EV and .349 xwOBA, but both marks are still well above average. He might be taking the slow decline route, but there is a chance he falls off a cliff. Expect a solid but not difference making bat. He didn’t play in the OF at all in 2022, but because he has a chance of gaining eligibility there I’m including him, and where else am I going to stick the DH’s? 2023 Projection: 74/24/80/.270/.338/.454/1

358) Jean Segura MIA, 2B, 33.0 – Segura had his usual solid across the board season with a .277 BA, 10 homers, and 13 steals in 98 games (a fractured finger knocked him out for 2 months). It’s a low upside profile and he’s now firmly entering the typical decline phase of a player’s career. Signing with Miami gives him a clear starting job. 2023 Projection: 75/14/61/.273/.332/.418/15

359) Manuel Margot TBR, OF, 28.6 –  A knee injury in late June put a halt to what was shaping up to be a breakout season. He put up a .788 OPS in 51 games pre injury and a .594 OPS in 38 games post injury. Even if fully healthy he doesn’t really run enough to have big fantasy upside, but he can be a high BA hitter with a moderate power/speed combo. 2023 Projection: 69/14/66/.270/.327/.408/13

360) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI, OF, 29.6 – Gurriel had such a dramatic power drop it’s almost impressive. He hit only 5 in 121 games. Everything in his underlying numbers are essentially the same (plus contact, plus EV, line drive hitter), so I think it’s just one of those weird things when you hit a round ball with a round bat. His barrel% tanked to 3.8%, but considering everything else was the same, I think it’s an aberration. And even with the weird year he put up a 114 wRC+. 2023 Projection: 68/18/78/.280/.326/.457/4

361) Jeff McNeil NYM, 2B/OF, 31.0 – McNeil is an elite contact hitter with a 10.4% K% and it led to a league leading .326 BA. Batting average can be fickle, and he doesn’t contribute in power (9 homers with a 86.9 MPH EV) or speed (4 steals), so you are at the mercy of the BABIP gods when drafting McNeil. 2023 Projection: 76/12/69/.309/.368/.437/5

362) Joc Pederson SFG, OF, 30.11 – Joc put up a career best 144 wRC+ with essentially the same hitting profile he’s always had. He’s a strong side of a platoon bat who hits the ball very hard (93.2 MPH EV) in the air (14.8 degree launch) with a strong plate approach (23.1%/9.7% K%/BB%). He only got 433 PA, but he wasn’t bad vs. lefties last year with a .742 OPS, so maybe they’ll give him some more run against them in 2023. 2023 Projection: 67/25/76/.252/.333/.468/3

363) Justin Turner BOS, 3B, 38.4 – Turner is certainly in decline with a career worst (during the Statcast Era) .339 xwOBA, but he doesn’t look completely toast yet. He still has a superb plate approach with a 16.7%/9.4% K%/BB% and he still hit the ball hard with a 89.5 MPH EV. Fenway Park plays to his strengths too. I like him as a cheap target for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 74/21/78/.270/.345/.443/2

364) Whit Merrifield TOR, 2B/OF, 34.2 – It really wasn’t loss of speed that killed Merrifield. His 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed was actually a 4 year high. It was the dead ball. He’s a flyball hitter with mediocre EV numbers, and the dead ball hunted that type of hitter like it was RoboCop. All of his underlying numbers were within career norms, except with the new ball, it resulted in a career low .288 xwOBA. As a result of the career worst .298 OBP and his loss of a full time job, his 16 stolen bases were a de facto career low. He also seemed to get the red light more after getting traded to Toronto with only 3 steal attempts 130 PA. Toronto is currently weak at both 2B and OF, so pending the rest of free agency, there does seem to be a path to near full time at bats, but he’s merely a later round speed flier at this point in his career. 2023 Projection: 74/10/60/.262/.311/.385/22

365) Brandon Drury LAA, 1B/2B/3B, 30.7 – Drury exploded with Cincy, putting up a .855 OPS with 20 homers in 92 games, but he was heavily outperforming his underlying numbers, and it was pretty obvious he wasn’t gong to be able to keep it up when traded to San Diego. He went from one of the best ballparks in the league to one of the worst, and ended the year with a .724 OPS in 46 games. It’s more in line with both his underlying numbers and career numbers (.736 career OPS). He’s a league average hitter, so signing with LA who has one of the best hitter’s parks in the league could push him to above average. 2023 Projection: 68/20/76/.261/.318/.440/1

366) Jon Berti MIA, 2B/3B, 33.2 – After attempting 12 steals in 85 games in 2021, something lit a fire under Berti’s ass in 2022 because he went 41 for 46 on the bases in 102 games. He’ll be 33 years old, but he still has speed to spare with an elite 29.6 ft/sec sprint speed. He won’t hit for any power and he has a career .244 BA, but he gets on base with a 10.4% BB%. Berti is a perfect cheap source of steals for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 68/9/46/.244/.329/.368/26

367) Jose Berrios TOR, RHP, 28.10 – Berrios knows a thing or two about bouncing back from a horrific season. He had to do it after one of the worst rookie years in recent memory (8.02 ERA in 58.1 IP in 2016). 2022 was his 2nd worst year with a 5.23 ERA in 172 IP, and despite what I just wrote, I’m not buying low. The potential upside just isn’t high enough. He’s put up an under 4.00 xERA just once in his entire career. His career 23.5% whiff% is below average. He didn’t have a big drop in stuff and his control was still good (maybe too good), so I do think he will bounce back, just not to the point that it’s worth paying up very much for. 2023 Projection: 10/4.24/1.28/163 in 175 IP

368) Taijuan Walker PHI, RHP, 30.8 – Walker put up a 3.49 ERA in 157.1 IP, but he needed luck to do it with a 3.94 xERA, and his 20.3% K% is pretty uninspiring. He can be solid as he showed in 2022, but he’s not a truly impact starter even in a good year. 2023 Projection: 10/3.88/1.23/135 in 160 IP

369) Josiah Gray WAS, RHP, 25.3 – Gray looked like a prime breakout candidate coming off his 2021 rookie campaign, putting up a 30.2% whiff% and underperforming his underlying numbers, but it was more of the same story this year. He’s a home run machine, giving up an astonishing, league worst 38 homers in 148.2 IP. His control remains below average with a 10.2% BB%, and his swing and miss actually took a step back this year with a 26.9% whiff%. His 4.25 xERA looks better than his 5.03 ERA, and while he might have just gotten unlucky again, I’m not taking the bait this time. 2023 Projection: 8/4.40/1.31/173 in 165 IP

370) Bailey Ober MIN, RHP, 27.9 – Ober combines elite control (4.8% BB%) with well above average swing and miss (27.7% whiff%) in 56 IP (groin strain kept him out for over 3 months). That is a very hard combo to find and it gives Ober some legit upside. He doesn’t have huge stuff with a 91.5 MPH fastball, and the stuff is very hittable with a bad 11.7% Barrel%, so I’m not expecting him to turn into an ace, but I loved grabbing him late before the Pablo Lopez signing. Now he’s one of the better 6th starters in baseball, non top prospect division. 2023 Projection: 7/3.85/1.19/113 in 110 IP

371) Tylor Megill NYM, RHP, 27.8 – Megill was one of my top cheap pitcher targets in 2022, and I’m going back to the well in 2023. He has plus stuff (95.7 MPH), plus swing and miss ability (27.6% whiff%), and plus control (6.5% BB%). He was in the midst of not only backing up his strong 2021, but taking the breakout to another level before a biceps and shoulder injury put a halt to it. He returned in September in a bullpen role and the fastball was still up over 95 MPH. The Quintana injury opens up a rotation spot, but my money is on Peterson winning it. 2023 Projection: 6/3.61/1.17/98 in 90 IP

372) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Don’t completely forget about Crochet. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022 and should return around the midway point of 2023. When healthy, he throws gas with a 96.7 MPH fastball to go along with an absolutely dominant slider that put up a .172 xwOBA with a 44.8% whiff% in 2021. He also has a lesser used changeup that was damn effective when he went to it. A dominant pen arm is his floor, and he has the goods to be a legitimate top of the rotation starter if they transition him to the rotation at some point. I would use the injury as a buying opportunity as I don’t think his price will be all that high in off-season drafts and trades. I’m targeting him everywhere. 2023 Projection: 2/3.62/1.29/35 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 4/2.87/1.06/90/30 saves in 65 IP or 12/3.63/1.23/181 in 160 IP

373) Jose Suarez LAA, LHP, 25.3 – I was taking late round fliers on Suarez in deeper leagues last off-season, and I’ll be doing the same in 2023. Nothing is truly standout in his profile, but he does a lot of things average to above average. He has average whiff (24.5%) and K rates (22.3%) with above average control (7.1% BB%). He throws a 5 pitch mix with 4 of his pitches performing average or better. His worst pitch, the fastball, was thrown a career low 34.2% of the time, so hopefully that trend continues. The league average ERA in 2022 was 3.96, and Suarez’ ERA was 3.96. He’s perfectly average. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he’ll be key rotation depth in deeper leagues. 2023 Projection: 9/3.87/1.26/145 in 150 IP

374) Randal Grichuk COL, OF, 31.8 – Chasing the Coors bump hasn’t paid off with anybody but CJ Cron in recent years. Grichuk put up an 88 wRC+ in 141 games. The good news is that he still hit the ball hard with a 90 MPH EV, but his launch angle tanked from 16.1 degrees to 8.7 degrees. It did jump back up to 14.1 degrees in September, so there is hope he can bring that back up in 2023. It’s hard to buy in too hard, but a guy playing in Coors who hits the ball hard, has the ability to lift it, and has reasonable contact rates is always in play for a breakout year. 2023 Projection: 66/23/78/.255/.300/.440/3

375) Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 24.6 – Carlson’s power took a step back in 2022 with 8 homers and an 86.1 MPH EV in 488 PA. He improved his contact rates with his K% dropping 5.3 percentage points to an above average 19.3%, but if it comes at the cost of hard contact, it’s not worth it. The foundation his still here to become a damn good real life bat, but the fantasy upside is looking a bit lacking to me. 2023 Projection: 73/16/62/.259/.337/.420/7

376) Yandy Diaz TB, 3B, 30.8 – Diaz played to the very top of his potential with a 92.2 MPH EV, 10.8%/14.8% K%/BB%, and .365 xwOBA (top 6%), and it still led to only 9 homers, 71 runs, and 57 RBI in 137 games. He hit .296, but if this is the best it gets, it’s not very encouraging. 2023 Projection: 77/13/64/.285/.378/.419/2

377) Trey Mancini CHC, 1B/OF, 31.0 – Mancini has been a barely above average bat over the past 2 seasons with a 105 and 104 wRC+ in 2021-22, and as a poor defensive player, that is not a recipe to lock in playing time. He’s a mostly line drive hitter with slightly above average EV and an average plate approach. He could hold the fort down in a deeper league, but in a medium to shallow league, you need to aim higher. 2023 Projection: 67/22/74/.253/.322/.443/0

378) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.11 – Canario has one of the most visually explosive swings in the minors. If a bazooka played baseball, it would swing like Canario. He demolished 37 homers in 125 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He has speed too with 23 steals. It’s the hit tool that is the issue. He had a 27.5% K% overall, and his BA tanked to .248 at Double-A, .231 at Triple-A, and .172 in the Dominican Winter League. Speaking of the Dominican Winter League, he suffered a serious injury on the bases which required surgery for a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder. His availability for the start of 2023 is in question. When healthy, I have no doubt he’ll do damage against any level of pitcher, but it just might come with a batting average that flirts with the Mendoza line. 2023 Projection: 28/10/33/.219/.297/.431/5 Prime Projection: 71/27/79/.232/.314/.458/10

379) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 24.1 – Meyer underwent Tommy John surgery on August 9th which will likely keep him out for all of 2023. When you own young flame throwing prospects, you just have to factor in 1-2 missed years with Tommy John, it’s only a matter of when. Before going down with the injury he was having a good but not dominant season at Triple-A with a 3.72 ERA and 28.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 58 IP. He got a taste of the majors where he proved his plus slider would play with a .256 xwOBA, 42.1% whiff%, and 46.1% usage in 6 IP, but both his 94.8 MPH fastball and changeup got crushed. A high end mid-rotation starter is looking like his reasonable upside, and I still think there is some bullpen risk. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.68/1.19/167 in 160 IP

380) Cody Morris CLE, RHP, 26.5 – Morris put up a 51.7% K% with a 2.35 ERA in 15.1 IP at Triple-A, and then he made his MLB debut and put up a 2.28 ERA with a 28.7% whiff% in 23.2 IP. He’s racked up K’s his entire career led by a high spin, swing and miss mid 90’s fastball. He rounds out his repertoire with a cutter, change and curve. The changeup is his best secondary and it dominated in the majors with a .223 xwOBA and 47.6% whiff%. He got a late start to the year because of a shoulder injury, and he battled a shoulder injury in 2021 as well, so the injury risk is high. He also mostly pitched short outings in 2022, so the bullpen risk might be high too. Regardless of where he ends up, Morris has undeniable fantasy upside and his hype does not match his upside. Go after him. 2023 Projection: 4/3.55/1.28/64 in 60 IP (out of the pen) Prime Projection: 10/3.75/1.26/169 in 155 IP

381) Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 19.0 – If you’re looking for the next rocket ship pitching prospect, Susana is your guy. He’s 6’6”, 235 pounds with a fastball that can hit over 100 MPH to go along with a 90+ MPH potentially plus slider and 90+ MPH developing changeup. It’s basically the Hunter Greene starter pack. He put up a 2.40 ERA with a 66/20 K/BB in 45 IP split between rookie ball and Single-A. There are some control problems and those 45 innings are the extent of his pro career, so there is plenty of risk here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.24/195 in 175 IP

382) Sean Manaea SFG, LHP, 31.2 – Manaea admitted he wasn’t in the best shape for 2022, and it showed with a 4.96 ERA in 158 IP. He worked hard this off-season at Driveline to rectify his poor conditioning, and he came into camp with his fastball sitting 93-96 MPH. He’s setting up for a bounce back in a great park in San Francisco, and his underlying numbers weren’t that far out of line with career norms with a 4.05 xERA and 23.2%/7.5% K%/BB% in 2022. He should get back to being a solid mid rotation starter at the least. 2023 Projection: 11/3.88/1.25/169 in 168 IP

383) Mike Clevinger CHW, RHP, 32.3 – Clevinger wasn’t the same returning from Tommy John surgery with his fastball velocity down 1.5 MPH to 93.6 MPH and his whiff% down 6.1 percentage points to 24.3%. It led to a 4.33 ERA in 114.1 IP, and he needed luck to even get it that low (4.65 xERA). He was horrific in the postseason too. There is nothing in the underlying numbers which indicates it is going to get better, but I wouldn’t completely ignore him. He’s pitched well at this velocity in the past in 2017 and 2018. He also picked up a knee injury which delayed the start of his season until May. It was just another thing to deal with along with getting fully healthy from Tommy John. He was pitching solidly up until September when it completely fell apart with a 6.52 ERA, so he was likely tiring after not putting up that many innings since 2019. Pitchers usually pitch better their 2nd year back from Tommy John when they get a fully healthy off-season under their belt. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.24/148 in 150 IP

384) Graham Ashcraft CIN, RHP, 25.2 – Ashcraft wasn’t able to miss nearly enough bats in the majors with a 15.3% K% and 18.6% whiff%. It led to a 4.89 ERA in 105 IP. There are reasons for hope though. His 97.3 MPH cutter, which he went to over half the time (50.7% usage), generally got the job done with a 2 degree launch and 85.6 MPH EV against. His slider was an above average pitch with a .269 xwOBA and 32% whiff%. He induced weak contact (86.9 MPH EV), kept the ball in the ground (3.8 degree launch), and threw the ball over the plate (career best at any level 6.5% BB%). His 4.02 xERA looks much better. Ashcraft also realizes the almost all fastball approach (he threw a sinker 21.5% of the time too) isn’t going to cut it, and has been working hard on improving his slider to miss more bats. He should go for a super cheap price this off-season, and I will almost certainly be grabbing him in every league. 2023 Projection: 9/3.91/1.32/129 in 155 IP

385) Austin Meadows DET, OF, 27.11 – Meadows had a disaster 2022 with vertigo, Covid, and an Achilles injury. It led to a .675 OPS with 0 homers in 36 games. The underlying numbers actually didn’t look bad at all with a .380 xwOBA and 11.6%/10.9% K%/BB%. I am worried that he has a whole lot of Max Kepler in his game. They have very similar profiles, and the underlying numbers love Kepler. I think Meadows is in for a big bounce back in 2023, but that Kepler thing is just hanging in the back of my mind. 2023 Projection: 68/19/74/.256/.335/.432/4

386) Edward Olivares KC, OF, 27.1 – Olivares gets the bat on the ball (20.7% K%), hits the ball pretty hard (89.2 MPH EV), and has speed (28.6 ft/sec sprint speed). I’ve said it many times, but if you’re fast and hit the ball hard, good things tend to happen. It led to a .286 BA with a well above average .339 xwOBA in 53 MLB games. There are enough weaknesses to keep him in flier territory, like his low walk rates and his stolen base ability disappearing in the majors, but as a free flier at the end of the drafts, Olivares makes a lot of sense to take a shot on. 2023 Projection: 71/15/60/.273/.324/.418/10

387) Aaron Zavala TEX, OF, 22.9 – Zavala is strong and thick at 6’0”, 193 pounds with a thunderous lefty swing that produces tons of hard contact. He combines that with an excellent plate approach that led to an excellent season split between High-A (144 wRC+) and Double-A (133 wRC+), slashing .277/.420/.453 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 108/89 K/BB in 111 games. He’s never put up huge homer totals, and he’s not a burner with average speed, so he’ll probably be a more rock solid MLB hitter than league winning fantasy hitter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/22/77/.267/.345/.416/9

388) Will Brennan CLE, OF, 25.2 – Brennan is basically Steven Kwan 2.0. In 129 games split between Double-A and Triple-A he displayed an elite plate approach (11.7%/8.8% K%/BB%) with some pop (13 homers) and speed (20 steals). He made his MLB debut and showed the skills will completely transfer, slashing .357/.400/.500 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 8.9%/4.4% K%/BB% in 45 PA. His 89.8 MPH EV was very encouraging and while his 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed is only average, he has good base running instincts. He has major platoon splits (.909 OPS vs. righties and .647 OPS vs. lefties), so he’s shaping up to be a strong side of a platoon bat starting as early as Opening Day 2023. 2023 Projection: 59/10/53/.281/.338/.410/11 Prime Projection: 84/15/68/.290/.354/.421/16

389) Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 22.11 – Thomas is a good bet to be a rock solid real life hitter, but he doesn’t have the fantasy upside I look for in young, unproven players. He hits the ball on the ground too much (2.6 degree launch angle), he’s not a huge EV guy (87.4 MPH EV), and he’s a low percentage base stealer despite plus speed (4 for 7 on the bases). His MLB debut put all of those flaws on display with a 71 wRC+ in 411 PA. He’s a good defensive player with plus contact rates and a mature plate approach, so as a McCarthy owner, I’m worried that safe profile will eventually overtake the more volatile McCarthy for that 3rd OF job. 2023 Projection: 58/10/51/.261/.318/.392/7 Prime Projection: 80/17/64/.278/.338/.427/14

390) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, and you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: OUT Update: Lux tore his ACL and will miss all of 2023

391) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

392) Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 21.4 – I think it will be a mistake to judge Martinez’ relatively weak year at Double-A too harshly. So many hyped 20 year olds who dominated the lower minors struggled hard when they got promoted to Double-A during the year. Veen, Soderstrom, Lawlar, and Hassell all had a rough go of it. Martinez played at the level all season and his 96 wRC+ easily beat all of those guys. The .203 BA looks ugly, but his 28.5%/8.1% K%/BB% isn’t really that horrific considering his age. And the kid jacked 30 homers, which almost gets taken for granted. Steamer actually projects him for a 103 wRC+ in 2023, which I don’t necessarily agree with it, but it at least shows his year really wasn’t all that bad statistically. He’s a buy for me. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/31/87/.241/.318/.474/5

393) Kevin Parada NYM, C, 21.8 – If you liked Henry Davis, you are going to love Keven Parada. Selected 11th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Parada looks the part of a catcher with two tree trunks for legs. He used that power base to have an insane power explosion this season, going from 9 homers in 2021, to 26 homers in 2022 over 60 ACC games. He also has a strong hit tool with a .361 BA and 32/30 K/BB. His value held serve in his pro debut, hitting the ball hard and putting up a .880 OPS in 13 games at mostly Single-A. I wouldn’t be too worried about New York already having Francisco Alvarez as they can both catch a ton of games and then DH on the other days. It will also preserve their careers in the long run. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/25/81/.268/.339/.475/3

394) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 24.11 – Jones Statcast numbers were already super interesting with a 95.4 MPH FB/LD EV and 14.5% Barrel% in 94 PA, and now with the trade to Coors, it’s hard to not be in on Jones. Colorado has been known to mess around with their young hitters, but none of those young hitters really forced the issue. Jones has the goods to force the issue with high walk rates and plus power. He struck out 33% of the time, but his 29.9% whiff% tells me not to be overly concerned with the K’s. Rodgers shoulder injury now gives him an even better chance of finding playing time. 2023 Projection: 41/11/39/.247/.328/.430/2 Prime Projection: 82/24/79/.260/.345/.453/5

395) Chase DeLauter CLE, OF, 20.9 – Selected 16th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, DeLauter is a big, slugging lefty who destroyed the lesser Colonial Conference, and then really exploded on the scene when he wrecked the wood bat Cape League, slashing .298/.397/.589 with 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 18/21 K/BB in 34 games. He was in the midst of going absolutely bonkos this year (1.404 OPS in 24 games) before breaking his foot. Assuming full health, he has the potential for at least plus power with plus speed and an advanced plate approach. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/26/84/.252/.333/.470/13 Update: Delauter underwent surgery for his broken foot on January 10th and is expected to miss 4-5 months. This doesn’t tank his value, but it does drop him down a bit

396) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 20.4 – Blaze clearly came into 2022 with a plan to not just be an all or nothing slugger, and he accomplished that plan with a 16.1%/8.9% K%/BB% in 95 games at Single-A. It came with a low FB% and only 8 homers, but he’s been known for his prodigious power for years now so it’s more important for his development to establish his hit tool. He then closed out the season at High-A where he put up a 128 wRC+ with 4 homers in 25 games. The bat is legit. The issue is on the other side of the ball as Blaze played a lot of 1B this year. He’s not a lock to move off 3B, but it’s clearly a possibility, and that puts all of the pressure on his bat to hit it’s ceiling. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 77/26/86/.260/.324/.475/3

397) Jose Salas MIA, SS/2B/SS, 19.9 – Salas started the year as an 18 year old in full season ball, and while he didn’t go full breakout, he laid the foundation for it in 2023 and beyond. He’s 6’2”, 191 pounds with a whip quick swing from both sides of the plate (he’s better from the left) that is both short and powerful. He hit only 9 homers in 109 games split between Single-A and High-A, but there is no doubt in my mind he will add more power as he ages. His plus hit tool and base running are his best skills right now, putting up a 20%/9% K%/BB% with 33 steals in 34 attempts against competition that was 2 to 3 years older than him on average. It was good for a 123 wRC+ at Single-A in 61 games and a 88 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A. His plate approach was actually a little better at High-A with a 18.9%/9.2% K%/BB%, so he was hardly overmatched. He has legitimate star potential, and the strong hit tool gives him a safe floor. He doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 88/24/82/.277/.346/.471/16

398) Ken Waldichuk OAK, LHP, 25.3 – Waldichuk destroyed the upper levels of the minors with a 2.84 ERA and 137/36 K/BB in 95 IP, but he wasn’t able to keep it up when Oakland gave him his shot in the majors with a 4.93 ERA and 33/10 K/BB in 34.2 IP. He throws a traditional 4 pitch mix and while none are truly standout, all of them are legitimate major league pitches. His 94.1 MPH fastball is the money maker and his above average slider is his best secondary. His 25.2% whiff% and 6.8% BB% shows there is potential to round into a solid mid rotation arm. 2023 Projection: 7/4.28/1.29/145 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.24/170 in 170 IP

399) Yasmani Grandal CHW, C, 34.5 – Grandal was a straight whiff for me in 2022. His power fell off a cliff with a measly 91.7 MPH FB/LD EV and it led to only 5 homers in 99 games. Injuries must have been the main culprit as he underwent left knee surgery during the 2021 season, right knee surgery in the off-season, and then battled leg, back, and knee injuries during the season. It’s not surprising to see a 34 year old catcher breaking down, but the underlying numbers don’t show a hopeless case. He had a strong 90 MPH EV with a 21%/12% K%/BB%. His 21.6% whiff% was a career best. He was bad, but he also go unlucky. I can’t predict whether his body will further deteriorate or if he will be more healthy in 2023, but I wouldn’t be willing to give up one of the top catcher prospects in the game to get him. He would have to come at a sweetheart deal to take the risk. 2023 Projection: 64/23/68/.235/.338/.435/1

400) Alex Wood SFG, LHP, 32.3 – A shoulder injury ended Wood’s season in late August and limited him to 130.2 IP. He got unlucky in 2022 with a 5.10 ERA because everything else was in line with career norms. He had a 23.6%/5.4% K%/BB% with a 4.00 xERA. He’s been injury prone his entire career, so you really can’t count on him for more than 150 IP, and even that could be shaky. 2023 Projection: 9/3.89/1.23/147 in 145 IP

401) Martin Perez TEX, LHP, 32.0 –  Perez had the classic career year with a pitching line of 2.89/1.26/169/69 in 196.1 IP. The 2.89 ERA is obviously not sustainable, but there does seem to be some real improvement with a career high 20.6% K% and 3.59 xERA. The upside isn’t high, none of his pitches are really standout, and he has average control at best. Don’t overpay for a career year. He’s a 3/4 starter, and that is at best. 2023 Projection: 10/3.88/1.29/158 in 180 IP

402) Kenta Maeda MIN, RHP, 35.0 – Maeda missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but should be good to go for 2023. He’s always been injury prone and he’s getting up there in age too, but assuming full health, Maeda does a lot of things well. He misses bats, he throws the ball over the plate, and he induces weak contact. It’s early, but he’s looked good in spring, which gives hope that he is truly 100%. 2023 Projection: 8/3.81/1.23/145 in 140 IP

403) Carlos Carrasco NYM, RHP, 36.0 – Carrasco is well into his transition from an ace to an old wily vet. He put up a 3.97 ERA with a 152/41 K/BB in 152 IP. His 23.6% K% is well down from his prime, but it’s still respectable, and his 6.4% BB% shows he has the pitchability to be effective even with the diminished, but still solid stuff. 2023 Projection: 11/3.91/1.29/160 in 160 IP

404) Merrill Kelly ARI, RHP, 34.6 – Kelly isn’t going to wow you with any one facet of his game, but the guy knows how to pitch, putting together an excellent year with a 3.37 ERA in 200.1 IP. That is probably the top of his ability, and I trust the 3.62 xERA more than the ERA, which is still damn good. Still, at 34 years old, without a big fastball, or big K rates, or elite control, the downside weighs more heavily on my mind than the upside. 2023 Projection: 11/3.76/1.22/160 in 180 IP

405) Liam Hendriks CHW, Closer, 34.2 – Hendriks was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and his status for 2023 is unclear. It certainly puts things like agonizing over his ranking in perspective. Put simply, he’s elite when healthy. Sending thoughts and prayers his way to get healthy. 2023 Projection: ???

406) Pete Fairbanks TBR, Closer Committee, 29.3 – You can’t trust Tampa to be faithful to one closer, but Fairbanks seems like the top dog. A lat injury delayed the start of his season until July, but he was insanely elite when he returned with a 1.13 ERA (1.03 xERA) and 43.7%/3.4% K%/BB%. I mean, what? His BB% in 2021 was 11.1%. That lat injury must have knocked something into the perfect alignment. He did get hurt in the playoffs with numb fingers, so there is injury risk (he never pitched more than 42.2 IP in the majors) along with closer committee risk, but if healthy he’ll be elite with a 99 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2023 Projection: 4/2.93/0.98/72/20 saves in 50 IP

407) AJ Puk MIA, Closer Committee, 27.11 – It took Puk until his age 27 year old season, but he finally had that breakout season that we all knew he was capable of, putting up a pitching line of 3.12/1.15/76/23 in 66.1 IP. He throws a 96.7 MPH fastball with a plus slider, and is an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’7”, 240 pounds. He also kept his control in check with an average 8.2% BB%. The trade to Miami ensures he will stay in the bullpen, but there is a path to saves there. 2023 Projection: 4/3.43/1.16/75/15 saves in 65 IP

408) Keibert Ruiz WAS, C, 24.8 – Everything will hinge on how much power Ruiz can add as he enters his mid 20’s, because something has to give with his current profile. He hits the ball in the air a lot with a 14.9 degree launch angle (and it’s been higher in the past), and he has a terrible 90.7 MPH FB/LD EV, so even though he has elite contact rates (11.5% K%), it will still lead to a low BA. You can’t count on power or batting average, and he only had a 6.9% BB%, so he’s a low OBP guy too. The prodigious contact rates gives him a safe floor, and while more power is certainly coming, it might be coming more like 3 years from now than next year. 2023 Projection: 56/13/58/.268/.323/.392/4

409) Shea Langeliers OAK, C, 25.5 –  Langeliers showed major hit tool problems in his MLB debut with a 34.5% K% and 42.7% whiff% in 153 PA. His 21.9% K% at Triple-A shows there should be future improvement, but his strikeout rates have been on the high side his entire career. His big time power can make up for it with 6 homers, a 94.5 MPH FB/LD EV, and a 16.9 degree launch (19 homers in 92 games at Triple-A), but we’ve seen Oakland’s ballpark depress Sean Murphy’s stats. Speaking of Murphy, his trade out of Oakland opens up the full time job for Langeliers now. One more thing to note, his 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed is surprisingly impressive, and while he’s not a big base stealer, it’s always nice to bet on an athlete like this. 2023 Projection: 50/18/62/.227/.296/.422/4 Prime Projection: 56/24/69/.242/.319/.455/5

410) Joey Meneses WAS, OF/1B, 30.11 – Part of what makes baseball so great is that it isn’t all that crazy to have 30 year old breakouts. Just take a look at Meneses’ comically long baseball reference page. Washington finally gave this man a chance and he didn’t let the opportunity slip through his fingers, slashing .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers, and a 21.7%/6.3% K%/BB% in 56 games. He certainly overperformed his underlying numbers (.395 xwOBA vs. .332 wOBA), but a 91.4/94.9 MPH AVG/FB EV shows it wasn’t all luck. The dude hits the ball very hard. On the flip side, he is very slow, he isn’t a good defender, and his 9.5 degree launch angle probably does cap his upside a bit. A 30 year old breakout with a limited upside profile is not exactly my favorite player to go after. Meneses would have to fall in my lap for him to end up on any of my teams. 2023 Projection: 65/18/72/.262/.323/.441/1

411) David Robertson NYM, Closer, 38.0 – The Diaz injury opens the door for Robertson to win the Mets closer job, but nothing is set in stone yet. He’s almost 38 years old, but he’s maintained his skills with a 93 MPH fastball and 2 plus breaking balls (slider and curve). It led to a 2.40 ERA and 30.8% K%. 2023 Projection: 3/3.51/1.24/60/25 saves in 50 IP

412) Daniel Bard COL, Closer, 37.9 – Bard laughed in the face of that thin air and dominated just as thoroughly at home as on the road. He throws 98 MPH heat with a plus slider that led to a 1.79 ERA with 34 saves and a 69/25 K/BB. His advanced age be damned, Colorado was so impressed they gave him a 2 year contract extension. A trade is always a possibility, but the extension does give him some job security. 2023 Projection: 4/3.44/1.18/74/28 saves in 63 IP

413) Ranger Suarez PHI, LHP, 27.8 – Suarez had visa issues because of the lockout, arriving late to camp in Spring, and it clearly messed him up. He put up a 4.74 ERA in his first 43.2 IP, but then found his rhythm and put up a 3.22 ERA the rest of the way in 111.2 IP. His game is all about keeping the ball on the ground (5.1 degree launch) and inducing weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against). He does it mostly with a 92.5 MPH sinker that put up a negative 3 degree launch, but he also has 5 other pitches, 4 of which put up an above average xwOBA (change, cutter, curve, slider). He doesn’t have huge stuff, he’s not a huge K guy (19.5% K%), and he’s not an elite command guy (8.8% BB%), so the upside isn’t necessarily huge, but there is an interesting blend of skills and pitch mix here to be a legitimate impact fantasy starter. 2023 Projection: 8/3.73/1.25/112 in 130 IP Update: Will likely start the year on the IL with forearm inflammation

414) Ross Stripling SFG, RHP, 33.4 – Stripling showed up to 2022 like 2020 (5.84 ERA) and 2021 (4.80 ERA) never happened. He took his plus control profile to the next level with an elite 3.7% BB% and it led to a 3.01 ERA (3.57 xERA) in 134.1 IP. He also changed up his pitch mix a bit by throwing his 4 seamer and curve less in favor of his changeup and sinker. He’s not a big K guy but he won’t tank you there either with about average K rates in his career. He couldn’t have landed in a better spot than San Francisco. 2023 Projection: 8/3.81/1.23/132 in 145 IP

415) Michael Brantley HOU, OF, 35.11 – Brantley underwent season ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in August. Landing back with Houston obviously couldn’t have worked out better, but he was already in a decline phase fantasy wise, and major surgery like that whose rehab takes you right up up to the start of the next season is not something I love buying into. The upside is limited, there isn’t that much long term value, and there is downside injury risk too. 2023 Projection: 73/14/68/.285/.358/.433/3

416) Jorge Soler MIA, OF, 31.1 – Soler is a major BA risk (.207 BA with a 29.4% K%) with big time power (91.2 MPH EV). He’s been very inconsistent in his career, making him a volatile fantasy player. He’ll either hit 10 dingers in a month that has you singing his praises, or put up a .150 BA that will have you pulling the hair out of your head. His season ended in late July with a back injury, which I’m sure will only add to the inconsistency as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2023 Projection: 66/25/75/.235/.323/.441/0

417) Wil Myers CIN, 1B/OF, 32.4 – Myers fantasy value was in it’s final death throes, but his value got one of those double paddle electrical impulses to the chest by signing with Cincinnati. It’s not like getting hit by those paddles returns you to prime form, but at least he has a pulse. He goes from one of the worst ballparks in the league to one of the best. He’s been a below average hitter for the last two years with high K rates (30.1% K% in 2022) and mediocre EV numbers (91.4 MPH FB/LD EV), but neither of them are in hopeless territory, and he still has his athleticism with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint. I’m far from targeting him, but he’s not an interesting later round pick for a win now team. 2023 Projection: 66/19/69/.251/.322/.429/9

418) Josh Donaldson NYY, 3B, 37.4 – Donaldson’s decline has been brewing for a few years now and it hit it’s low point in 2022 with a .682 OPS in 132 games. The underlying numbers don’t look hopeless as he still hit the ball very hard with a 90.7/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, but a below average .299 xwOBA shows he didn’t get unlucky. His 27.1% K% and 9.9% BB% were both effectively career worsts. As long as he’s still hitting the ball hard I wouldn’t completely write him off, but at 37 years old you have to expect continued decline rather than a bounce back. 2023 Projection: 69/23/74/.237/.322/.438/1

419) Lane Thomas WAS, OF, 27.7 – Thomas didn’t have the breakout we were hoping for with 17 homers, 8 steals, and a .241 BA in 146 games. It was good for a below average 96 wRC+. The skills are still there to do it with a 93 MPH FB/LD EV and a 29.4 ft/sec sprint speed, and he’ll have a very long leash in Washington, but at already 27 years old he shouldn’t be valued like it’s expected. 2023 Projection: 71/20/63/.244/.318/.420/10

420) Austin Hays BAL, OF, 27.9 – Hays needs a raw power bump in order to take the next step. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with an 87.7 MPH EV to really do enough damage despite an above average 19.6% K%. He hit only 16 homers with a .250 BA in 145 games. The good news is that raw power upticks happen in player’s late 20’s plenty, so that is what you are betting on here. 2023 Projection: 69/19/74/.259/.316/.432/4

421) Leody Taveras TEX, OF, 24.7 – Taveras once again flashed his tantalizing upside with a .856 OPS in his first 41 games in the majors, but he fell off once again with a .559 OPS in his final 58 games. The underlying numbers are saying the struggles are the real him with a .270 xwOBA. There are some positive takeaways though. His 89.3 MPH EV shows his raw power, and he brought his K% down 6.6 percentage points to 25.8%. He’s still super fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. The ingredients are there to explode, but he just hasn’t figured out how to put it all together yet. 2023 Projection: 56/10/45/.248/.305/.392/22

422) Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Philly made some adjustments with Marsh after they traded for him, and he performed well there with a 114 wRC+ in 138 PA, but I’m still struggling to buy in too hard because the plate approach was still poor with a 29.7%/4.3% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a line drive approach and has plus speed. That is a profile where good things tend to happen if you can make enough contact and/or get on base, but Marsh is struggling in both of those areas. He’s also been terrible against lefties. A strong side of a platoon bat seems like the best case scenario for early in his career. 2023 Projection: 53/11/48/.248/.309/.415/11

423) Juan Yepez STL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Yepez has a defense problem, which might not be as big of a deal on another team, but with Goldy locked in at 1B and St. Louis’ prowess in developing underrated hitters (and properly rated hitters too), it’s a big deal. He put up a 109 wRC+ on the back of his contact/power profile, but his negative 9.8 defensive value made him a 0.1 WAR player in 76 games. His contact/power combo also isn’t quite huge enough to really force St. Louis’ hand with an average 22.3% K% and below average 86.5 MPH EV (the 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV is above average). His 5.8% BB% led to a .296 OBP, which is really unacceptable for a bat only player. Yepez has Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson all nipping on his heels for at bats. You simply can’t trust he has a full time job, and it seems very likely that he doesn’t. 2023 Projection: 41/15/47/.248/.309/.460/0

424) Brendan Rodgers COL, 2B, 26.8 – I think Rodgers is Starlin Castro’ing us. He’s a hyped top prospect who isn’t a bust, but just never breaks out into that truly impact major leaguer. Rodgers had his best year with career highs almost everywhere you look (.326 xwOBA, 90 MPH EV, 17.4% K%, 7.9% BB%), but it still only led to 13 homers and a .733 OPS in 137 games. He’s never stolen a base in the majors and his 4.6 degree launch angle is killing his production. The fact he hit the ball a lot harder this year does give some hope that he’s an adjustment away from a true breakout, but it’s not something I am going to personally bet on. 2023 Projection: OUT Update: Rodgers dislocated his left shoulder and while it is still uncertain if he will need surgery, there is a good chance he misses all of 2023

425) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 22.0 – The good news is that Mauricio is fully realizing his power potential, crushing 26 homers in 123 games at Double-A, but the bad news is that he just can’t seem to refine his plate approach with a 23.1%/4.4% K%/BB%. It makes it tough to buy into him in OBP leagues, but I wouldn’t be too scared off in 5×5 BA leagues because his defense should be able to keep him on the field. He’s been young for every level he’s played at, and he’s currently lighting up the Dominican Winter League with 2 homers, a 1.223 OPS and a 5/3 K/BB in 8 games, so he’s far from a finished product. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/25/82/.264/.317/.455/9

426) Gabriel Gonzalez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Gonzalez might not have the highest upside as he’s not a huge tools guy. He doesn’t have monster power or speed, and he’s not a hulking human being at about 5’11”, but what he does have is monster baseball skills. He destroyed the DSL in 2021 with a 141 wRC+ in 54 games, then he crushed stateside rookie ball in 2022 with a 164 wRC+ in 35 games, before making his full season debut and barely slowing down with a 14%/8.7% K%/BB% and 116 wRC+ in 32 games at Single-A. He has a plus hit tool with near elite contact rates his entire career, and there is plus power potential especially considering the quality of contact. He’s not a burner but he should be able to nab a handful of steals as well. He’s one of the safest teenage prospects in the game and it’s not like there isn’t some upside in here either. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 85/25/85/.278/.343/.473/9

427) Anthony Gutierrez TEX, OF, 18.4 – Gutierrez is one of the top answers to the popular question, “what prospect outside the Top 100 can fly up the rankings in 2023?” He’ll be inside my Top 100, but you get my point. Gutierrez is a projectable 6’3”, 180 pounds with a super smooth and quick righty swing. He so quickly impressed the Rangers in his pro debut in the DSL (150 wRC+ in 23 games), they quickly promoted him to stateside rookie ball where he held his own with an 18.4% K% and 91 wRC+. He has the potential to hit for average and power, to go along with plus athleticism. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 80/25/86/.272/.336/.470/12

428) Luis Matos SFG, OF, 21.2 – Matos was one of the biggest prospect fallers of 2022. He put up a 73 wRC+ with a career worst 16% K% and a still bad 6.6% BB% in 91 games at High-A. It seems to me he was trying to become a more patient hitter, and he did walk a lot more in the 1st half with an 8.3% BB% in his first 63 games, but it came with a terrible .567 OPS. He went back to his more free swinging ways when the calendar turned to August and it went much better, slashing .283/.312/.462 with 5 homers, 7 steals, and a 3.2% BB% in his last 33 games. Still not exactly lighting the world on fire, and it’s not a great sign that he was unsuccessful in his attempt to improve. He’s very young, and the profile is still exciting as a guy who gets the bat on the ball, hits it in the air, has developing power, and is fast, so don’t completely give up on him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/21/70/.272/.318/.439/14

429) Deyvison De Los Santos ARI, 3B, 19.9 – De Los Santos has the frame of an NFL fullback with 2 tree trunks for legs. He has double plus raw power that led to him smashing 22 homers in 126 games at mostly Single-A and High-A, and he did it while being 18 years old for a large portion of the season. He made it all the way up to Double-A for 10 games to close out the season (83 wRC+). Power is his only plus skill though. He has a poor plate approach (26.3%/6.1% K%/BB%), an over 50% GB%, and not much speed. Power can cure a lot of ills, and he’ll still be only 19 years old next season, so he could easily blow up to be an elite power hitting prospect with further refinement. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/28/88/.252/.328/.488/3

430) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July (257th overall), and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. Buy now. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

431) Jose Rodriguez CHW, SS/2B, 21.11 – Rodriguez absolutely exploded when everyone already turned their head on him, slashing .333/.399/.544 with 10 homers, 28 steals, and a 29/24 K/BB in his final 54 games at Double-A. He had a rough 1st half with 1 homer and a .582 OPS in 50 games. Opinions tend to cement in the prospect world during the 1st half, and 2nd half breakouts are almost invariably underrated the next off-season, especially early on. His season ended early on August 20th when he needed hamate bone surgery after an awkward swing, but it’s not a long term concern. Rodriguez will be a great value in off-season prospect drafts. 2023 Projection: 15/2/9/.263/.308/.388/6 Prime Projection: 82/16/68/.281/.331/.416/23

432) Zack Gelof OAK, 2B/3B, 23.6 – Gelof’s 2022 was a bit of a mixed bag. He showed big time power potential with 18 homers in 96 games in the upper minors. He went particularly bonkos when he got to Triple-A with 5 homers in 9 games. He’s also a good athlete and nabbed 10 bags. On the flip side, he showed more swing and miss than optimal with a 27.5% K%, and he also didn’t hit all that well in the AFL with a .683 OPS in 21 games. I pegged him as a rock solid MLB bat before the year, and his value held serve in 2022. Add a star for proximity as Oakland has no reason not to promote him very quickly into 2023. 2023 Projection: 48/13/53/.237/.308/.422/7 Prime Projection: 74/24/81/.252/.325/.451/10

433) Drey Jameson ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Jameson was in the midst of a disaster season at Triple-A with a 6.95 ERA and 21.2% K% in 114 IP before his impressive MLB debut saved his season. He put up a pitching line of 1.48/1.11/24/7 in 24.1 IP. The 4-seamer averaged 95.9 MPH and his devastating slider transferred to the majors with a 46% whiff% and .232 xwOBA. He used a 94.4 MPH sinker to keep the ball on the ground and it led to a 3.2 degree launch angle. He started the year at Double-A where he put up a 2.41 ERA and 23/4 K/BB in 18.2 IP, so it seems he just couldn’t get right at Reno and the PCL. I’m inclined to give him a pass, but it’s also hard to ignore completely how terrible he was. The nasty stuff is undeniable, but I’m still staying a little hesitant. 2023 Projection: 6/4.28/1.30/131 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/172 in 165 IP

434) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 30.2 – The underlying numbers king struck again, putting up a .338 xwOBA vs. a .298 wOBA. It’s his third year in a row of underperforming the underlying numbers. He has an elite plate approach (14.8%/11% K%/BB%) and hits it hard (89.1 MPH EV), but you just can’t keep banging your head against the wall and expecting a different result. I have to accept the huge season isn’t coming, but I just can’t write a guy off completely with those strong underlying numbers. 2023 Projection: 72/19/67/.244/.329/.426/5

435) Mark Canha NYM, OF, 34.1 – Canha hit only 13 homers with 3 steals in 140 games, and while he’s certainly capable of doing better than that in both categories, he’s now entering his mid 30’s. He still put up a .367 OBP with a 128 wRC+, so there hasn’t really been any signs of decline in real life terms. It’s a boring profile in a 5×5 league with downside, but in an OBP league there is still some impact value here. 2023 Projection: 76/15/68/.253/.351/.407/7

436) Jurickson Profar COL, OF, 30.1 – Profar signed with Colorado which is obviously the best case scenario for his value. He doesn’t hit the ball hard with a below average 87.5 MPH EV and he’s not fast with a below average 26.6 ft/sprint speed. He does have excellent plate approach with a 15.7%/11.1% K%/BB%, and he put up an above average 110 wRC+ in 658 PA in 2022. The upside isn’t high, but it’s a little higher now that he’s with the Rockies. 2023 Projection: 79/15/58/.258/.339/.405/8

437) Kolten Wong SEA, 2B, 32.6 – The trade to Seattle is a major ballpark downgrade for Wong, and he really doesn’t have the offensive upside to take that hit. He’s had below average xwOBA’s for the last 5 years, and I have to think Milwaukee’s ballpark helped him put up much better wOBA’s. He doesn’t have that luxury anymore. He has a plus plate approach (17.7%/9.3% K%/BB%), so I don’t think he will fall off a cliff, but I do think his weak contact (87 MPH EV) will get punished more in Seattle. 2023 Projection: 68/13/49/.259/.336/.415/15

438) Luis Garcia WAS, 2B/SS, 22.10 – The good news is that Garcia’s power is ticking up with a career high EV. The bad news is that it is still below average at 87.3 MPH, and while his 94.2 FB/LD EV is excellent, he only had 7 homers with a 5.5 degree launch in 93 games. His plate approach remains terrible too with a 22.3%/2.9% K%/BB%. Considering his lack of speed, even if Garcia breaks out it doesn’t seem like it will result in huge fantasy seasons. Jonathan Schoop almost seems like the best case scenario here. 2023 Projection: 59/14/68/.269/.305/.417/5

439) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B/1B, 23.4 – Vientos is 6’4”, 185 pounds with a big righty hack that is made to hit dingers. He jacked 24 homers in 101 games games at Triple-A and then hit the majors and put up a 93.3 MPH EV in 41 PA. On the flip side, he has major hit tool concerns which could tank him with a 28.6% K% at Triple-A and a 29.3% K% (.167 BA) in the majors. He also isn’t a great defensive player and he had pretty major splits this year (.734 vs righties/1.094 vs lefties). The risk is that he becomes a short side of a platoon DH/bench bat, but the upside is a 30+ homer bat. 2023 Projection: 29/10/38/.228/.297/.425/0 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.248/.327/.488/1

440) Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B, 21.9 – Power, power, and more power. The 6’1”, 250 pound Noel has power for days as he crushed 32 homers mostly split between High-A and Double-A. He actually performed better at Double-A, bringing his K% down 9 percentage points to 22.7% and his BB% up 3.7 percentage points to 10.8%. He’s definitely a batting average risk with a .229 BA, but his K rates haven’t been out of control throughout his career, so I don’t think it’s a deal breaker. What could be the deal breaker is that he’s not a good defensive player and he’s not a particularly high OBP guy either, so playing time could be hard to come by. His bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to see full time at bats. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/23/77/.241/.320/.478/2

441) Kerry Carpenter DET, OF, 25.7 – Carpenter is a lefty with a relatively high launch angle (14.5 degrees), poor plate approach (28.3%/5.3% K%/BB%) and good but not huge EV numbers (87.2 MPH AVG, 93.9 MPH FB/LD, 107.3 MAX) who plays in a ballpark that is horrific for lefty homers (although they changed the park dimensions this-offseason). That is a recipe for an extremely low batting average. The surface stats were strong in his debut, slashing .252/.310/.485 with 6 homers in 31 games, but the underlying numbers mirror my concerns with a .209 xBA and .292 xwOBA. He tore up the upper minors with a 164 wRC+ in 63 games at Double-A and 176 wRC+ in 35 games at Triple-A, and he put up a 126 wRC+ in the majors, so I don’t want to overthink it too much, but he’s still in the flier/late round target area for me. He’s not someone I’m getting super excited about yet. 2023 Projection: 63/20/77/.235/.302/.443/2

442) Brice Turang MIL, SS, 23.4 – Turang quietly put together a strong season at Triple-A, slashing .286/.360/.412 with 13 homers, 34 steals, and a 19.6%/10.8% K%/BB% in 131 games. He has above average contact rates, but they aren’t exactly elite, and he’s never been a big home run hitter with high groundball rates and decent raw power. You could say it’s a top of the order profile with his plus speed, but I suspect it will end up more of a bottom of the order profile. He seems to have a path to the 2B job at the moment. 2023 Projection: 46/7/38/.252/.309/.381/10 Prime Projection: 77/14/62/.268/.330/.397/22

443) Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

444) Addison Barger TOR, 3B/SS, 23.5 – Barger has one of those fun batting stances that I would have loved to emulate at a kid, and he uses that stance to unleash an uppercut lefty swing that is all bad intentions. It’s pretty vicious. He smashed 26 homers with a .933 OPS at A+, AA, and AAA, destroying all 3 levels. There is swing and miss in his game with a 24.9%/9.1% K%/BB%, and the swing is a bit wild, so the hit tool could tank him, but if he does get a beat on MLB pitching, he’s going to do damage. 2023 Projection: Prime Projection: 73/27/85/.239/.317/.460/6

445) Warming Bernabel COL, 3B, 20.10 – Bernabel has just been quietly chugging along in the minors with an unheralded above average hit/power combo. He slashed .313/.370/.499 with 14 homers, 23 steals, and a 13.7%/7.6% K%/BB% in 91 games split between Single-A and High-A. The stolen bases are likely a mirage and he might not have star upside, but he’s trending towards being a rock solid MLB bat. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/81/.275/.330/.448/6

446) Benny Montgomery COL, OF, 20.7 – Montgomery had an up and down season battling a few injuries, but he came on hard at the end and put up very strong numbers when it was all said and done. He slashed .310/.385/.494 with 6 homers, 9 steals, and a 26.9%/7.3% K%/BB% in 62 games at mostly Single-A. He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds of just raw unfiltered upside with plus power and at least plus speed. The plate approach isn’t great and the groundball rates are high (51.3%), so he is still a bit of a project. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/23/79/.250/.321/.442/18

447) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.10 – Clase had a big time breakout season, but nobody seemed to notice. He slashed .267/.374/.463 with 13 homers, 55 steals, and a 26.7%/13% K%/BB% in 107 games at Single-A. He has elite speed and there is some real juice in his bat with him crushing some absolute bombs. He’s only 5’8”, 150 pounds, so he’s not going to be a huge power hitter, but there should be enough to let his speed shine. The high K% adds risk which prevents his value from really exploding, but he mitigates that with high a walk rate. Clase is the type I hope falls right into my lap late in off-season prospect drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/14/60/.246/.328/.398/31

448) Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.6 – Jorge completely backed up his big 2021 in the DSL, slashing .261/.405/.529 with 7 homers, 27 steals, and a 26.6%/16.2% K%/BB% in 42 games in stateside rookie ball. He’s not an imposing figure at 5’10”, 160 pounds, but he can certainly put a charge into the ball in the mold of a Jose Ramirez, and he’s an excellent base runner with plus speed. The strikeout rate is a little higher than optimal, but don’t let his diminutive stature fool you, Jorge has legitimate upside and could explode up rankings in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/18/68/.263/.337/.423/25

449) Justin Crawford PHI, OF, 18.6 – Son of Carl Crawford. I could honestly end the blurb right there and you will know exactly the type of player Justin is. 6.11 second 60 yard dash is in the elite of the elite, and he has shown a good feel to hit. The power hasn’t fully developed yet, and he hit 0 homers with very, very high groundball rates in his 16 game pro debut, so he’s not only going to have to get stronger, he’s also going to have to make a swing adjustment to tap into more power. His upside is as high as anyone’s in a 5×5 BA, but he’s not as refined as the high school hitters ranked above him. He was selected 17th overall. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/16/69/.270/.337/.426/31

450) Jett Williams NYM, SS, 19.5 – Selected 14th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Williams is a small but explosive player with strong EV numbers and plus speed. The hit tool is his calling card, which makes him relatively safe, and it’s possible his upside isn’t being respected enough because the discrimination against small guys (5’8”, 175 pounds). He’s definitely not a slap hitter. He displayed all of those skills in his pro debut, slashing .250/.366/.437 with 1 homer, 6 steals, and a 14.6%/9.8% K%/BB% in 10 games. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/17/71/.278/.343/.438/24

451) Danny Jansen TOR, C, 27.11 – Jansen led all catchers with a .368 xwOBA, and the only thing I’m wondering is why the breakout didn’t happen sooner. I’ve liked him for awhile because of his plus plate approach (17.7%/10.1% K%/BB%), power (90.4/95.8 MPH FB/LD EV), and ability to put the ball in the air (22.2 degree launch). He only played in 72 games, and now that Toronto signed Brandon Belt, I’m a little concerned about his playing time. If I was a suer he had a full time job, he would have ranked higher. 2023 Projection: 49/17/54/.253/.331/.460/1

452) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 24.0 – In 2020, Adell hit the ball very hard but struck out a ton. In 2021, Adell brought his K% way down, but he didn’t hit the ball hard at all. So in 2022, we were hoping for him to combine the 2020 EV with the 2021 K rate for a breakout season. Instead, we got the opposite. His K% skyrocketed back up to 37.5% and his EV stayed bad with a 87.4 MPH EV. It wasn’t a small sample either with 285 PA. His 3.9% BB% was horrific too, showing that he is completely overmatched by MLB pitching. The talent is still huge, but he doesn’t even look close to figuring it out. It’s time to move on as anything other than a bottom of the roster flier. 2023 Projection: 36/12/43/.228/.291/.410/6

453) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. He’ll get plenty of hype this off-season, but I suspect he will still go for a great value in the majority of leagues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

454) Colt Keith DET, 3B/2B, 21.8 – A shoulder injury ended Keith’s regular season on June 9th, which put a halt to what was a full breakout year. He slashed .301/.370/.544 with 9 homers, 4 steals, and a 19.4%/10.2% K%/BB% in 48 games at High-A. He was able to return for the Fall League, and he proved the shoulder is just fine, decimating the league with a .992 OPS and 9/13 K/BB in 14 games. He’s a big, strong dude at 6’3”, 211 pounds and he hits the ball very hard. It might not be a league winning fantasy profile as he doesn’t sell out for homers and he doesn’t have much speed, but he’s a great bet to be a really good MLB hitter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/24/87/.273/.341/.463/4

455) Bryce Miller SEA, RHP, 24.7 – Miller showed major control problems in 2021 in the SEC in his first year as a starter with a 5.9 BB/9 in 56.2 IP, but Seattle took a shot on his big stuff in the 4th round, and it paid off in 2022. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.04/163/46 in 133.2 IP at mostly High-A and Double-A. He pitched just as well at each level. He throws gas with a mid 90’s fastball and has 3 quality secondaries in his slider, change, and curve. He certainly still has some reliever risk, but there is real fantasy upside here, especially considering this was only his 2nd year as a starter. 2023 Projection: 3/4.19/1.34/51 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.76/1.30/168 in 160 IP

456) Owen White TEX, RHP, 23.8 – White really turned heads in the AFL last year, and he kept the momentum going into 2022 with a pitching line of 3.59/1.16/104/23 in 80.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He was even better in Double-A with a 2.49 ERA and 23/4 K/BB in 21.1 IP. He has a deep pitch mix (4-seamer, 2-seamer, curve, slider, change), he throws gas with a mid 90’s fastball, and he has plus control/command. It’s at least a mid rotation profile. 2023 Projection: 3/4.15/1.29/60 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.20/185 in 170 IP

457) Reese Olson DET, RHP, 23.8 – It was a tale of two half’s for Olson. He had a 3.24 ERA with a 90/15 K/BB in his first 58.1 IP and a 4.99 ERA with a 78/23 K/BB in his last 61.1 IP. All of it came at Double-A. Put all together it was still a great year with a 33.1%/7.5% K%/BB% and 4.14 ERA (3.08 xFIP) in 119.2 IP. It’s a pleasure to watch him pitch as he commands the mound and understands the art of pitching. The stuff is legit with an electric 4 pitch mix (fastball, curve, slider, change), all of which have plus potential. It’s probably a mid-rotation profile on the MLB level, but I always get overly excited whenever I watch one of his starts. 2023 Projection: 4/4.17/1.31/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.76/1.21/183 in 170 IP

458) Wilmer Flores SFG, 1B/2B/3B, 31.8 – Flores finally got full time at bats, but he’s the textbook example of who the dead ball killed. He makes a ton of weak flyball contact with a 20.7 degree launch and 90.8 MPH FB/LD EV. He was a league average hitter with a 103 wRC+ on the back of a strong plate approach (17.1%/9.8% K%/BB%), but the profile tanked his BA to .229 and he still only managed 19 homers. He needs to petition the league for juicier balls. 2023 Projection: 77/22/75/.244/.323/.431/1

459) Jace Jung DET, 2B, 22.6 – Selected 12th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jung has a weird, almost Mickey Tettleton like batting stance where his bat starts near horizontal rather than vertical. It clearly works for him as he’s put up over a 1.000 OPS in all 3 years of college. He has the potential for plus hit and plus power from the left side, and he is an absolute walk machine with a 42/59 K/BB in 61 games this year. His older brother, Josh Jung, has already ran roughshod over the minor leagues. Detroit aggressively assigned him to High-A for his pro debut, and while he didn’t dominate, he hit well with a 106 wRC+, 20.9%/18.7%, and a 35.4% GB%. A lefty bat in Detroit isn’t my favorite target, but Jung is one of the safest bats in First Year Player Drafts, and add a star in OBP leagues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/25/85/.264/.349/.471/4

460) Jacob Berry MIA, OF/3B/1B, 21.11 – Selected 6th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Berry’s power wasn’t exactly what you would want to see in his wood bat pro debut with only 3 homers in 37 games at mostly Single-A. He hit for a lot of power with metal bats in college (32 homers in 116 games), so I’m too concerned, but he may not end up a power hitting beast. His strong hit tool can easily make up for it though with a 15.5%/8.8% K%/BB% at Single-A and a 8.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 53 games in the SEC. I think it all adds up to a strong MLB hitter, but maybe not a fantasy difference maker, especially in Miami’s ballpark which is not great for homers. He’s also not great on defense, but I don’t think you draft someone 6th overall if you don’t have every intention to give him a real shot. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/24/81/.275/.338/.457/3

461) Drew Gilbert HOU, OF, 22.6 – Selected 28th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Gilbert is only 5’9”, 185 pounds, but he has a physicality at the dish that makes him look 6’1”, 215. He has a vicious lefty swing that is hard not to love, and while his fantasy numbers aren’t huge, being one of the best hitters in the best conference is nothing to sneeze at, slashing .362/.455/.673 with 11 homers, 4 steals, and a 32/33 K/BB in 58 games in the SEC. He played only 10 games in his pro debut split between rookie and Single-A, and he quickly proved his elite contact rates will transfer with a 2/4 K/BB. He also knocked out 2 dingers and 6 steals, although most of the damage came in rookie (79 wRC+ in 6 games at Single-A). He’s a safe prospect who will contribute in every category, and it’s not like he’s devoid of upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/20/76/.281/.345/.448/11

462) Chris Taylor LAD, 2B/OF, 32.7 – Taylor cratered in 2022 with a terrible 35.2% K% and below average 87.4 MPH EV. A .195 xBA shows he was actually lucky to hit .221. Neither the swing and miss or poor EV’s are really outside the norm of his career, so it’s not great to see them taking a step back as he gets deeper in his 30’s. LA has great depth with a strong supply of young talent, so Taylor will not have a very long leash to struggle in 2023. I don’t feel comfortable enough with his playing time to rank him higher than this. 2023 Projection: 68/16/63/.230/.313/.408/9

463) Zach Eflin TBR, LHP, 29.0 – Eflin underwent knee surgery last off-season, and it caught up with him in late June when he landed on the IL with knee soreness. When he returned in September, Philly used him out of the bullpen, but Tampa has every intention to use him as a starter after giving him $40 million. He looked like himself when he was healthy with a plus control profile (4.8% BB%) and 6 pitch mix. He’s never been an innings eater type, and that’s not likely to change with Tampa, but he can be a stabilizing force at the back of your fantasy rotation. 2023 Projection: 9/3.83/1.23/127 in 150 IP

464) Jake Fraley CIN, OF, 27.10 – Fraley had a strong 2022 with a .812 OPS in 68 games, but I’m not buying in. His 85.1 MPH EV is terrible and it’s been bad his entire career. His hit tool took a big step forward with a career best 21.9% K%, but it’s still only average at best with a .259 BA and .248 xBA. And while he has some speed with a 28 ft/sec sprint, he only stole 4 bags last year. You certainly can’t count on the power, it’s doubtful he will be a positive in BA, and you can’t count on big stolen base totals. 2023 Projection: 74/17/69/.250/.331/.420/10

465) Isaac Paredes TBR, 1B/2B/3B, 24.1 – Paredes has put up well below average xwOBA’s in his 3 year career (.285 career xwOBA), and while his 87.4 MPH EV was a career high, it’s still below average. He has an advanced plate approach (17.6%/11.5%), but because of how often he hits the ball weakly in the air (15.8 degree launch), his batting average is extremely low (.205 BA). He did smack 20 homers in 381 PA, and if he naturally grows into more power, there could be some breakout potential. 2023 Projection: 59/18/56/.241/.329/.430/0

466) Bryan De La Cruz MIA, OF, 26.3 – Cruz’ power took a big jump in 2022 with his EV spiking 2.4 MPH to 90.8 MPH, his Max EV jumping 3.2 MPH to 111.2 MPH, and his Barrel% jumping 6.5 percentage points to 11.9%. It led to a .355 xwOBA in 115 games which was in the top 10% of the league. There are enough negatives that make me hesitant to buy in though. He has a poor plate approach with a 25.4%/5.4% K%/BB%, his 9.4 degree launch is not optimal for fantasy, and he’s not that fast with a 62.3 percentile sprint speed. That means you can’t really count on a high BA, or a high OBP, or homers, or steals. The improved power also didn’t show up in the surface stats with a .725 OPS. The strong quality of contact numbers should certainly have your attention, but instead of a target, he’s a guy I will put a star next to his name as you get into the later rounds of your draft. 2023 Projection: 54/14/57/.274/.326/.441/5 Update: With Jazz moving to CF and Miami making a bunch of vet off-season additions, Cruz’ spot on the roster is now in jeopardy

467) Jose Siri TBR, OF, 27.9 – Siri has a plus centerfield glove with tantalizing fantasy upside, but a terrible plate approach tanks the whole profile. He put up a 33.2%/6.2% K%/BB% with a terrible .262 xwOBA in 325 PA. His 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed is the elite of the elite, and he’s capable of putting a charge into the ball with a career 88.4 MPH EV. He’s like a poor man’s Adalberto Mondesi with loads of competition for playing time in Tampa. 2023 Projection: 58/14/44/.232/.290/.402/18

468) Steven Matz STL, LHP, 31.10 – A shoulder and knee injury limited Matz to just 48 IP, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2023. Matz has had an extremely up and down career and has always been injury prone even going back to his days as a prospect. He relies heavily on a 94.5 MPH sinker to go along with 3 solid but unspectacular secondaries in his changeup, curve, and slider. The ingredients have always been there to be a beast, and his 4.8% BB% and 27.6% whiff% were actually both career highs in 2022, despite a 5.25 ERA (3.64 xERA). It’s hard to count on him staying healthy, be can be an impact fantasy starter if everything comes together. 2023 Projection: 8/3.93/1.26/136 in 140 IP

469) Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon is a wiry 6’2”, 176 pounds with a powerful righty swing that is reminiscent of Alfonso Soriano. He hit up rookie ball with 9 homers and a 17.7% K% in 51 games, and then he went to Single-A and jacked 3 homers with an 11.6% K% in 11 games. He doesn’t have Soriano’s speed, and his 7% BB% is on the low side, but it’s easy to fall for that swing, contact rate and power projection. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/83/.272/.327/.468/7

470) Garrett Cooper MIA, 1B, 32.3 – Cooper is currently in line to be Miami’s starting 1B, and he has the talent to hold down the job. He’s put up over a 10% Barrel% for 3 years in a row and has a well above average career .347 xwOBA (.341 in 2022). He hits the ball hard with a line drive approach, so while he might not rack up homers, he has the potential to put up a BA that might actually help you. Injuries have been a problem throughout his career, and he was banged up a lot in 2022, limiting him to 119 games. He’ll have to survive free agent additions and stay healthy, but the potential is there to be an impact fantasy player in medium to deeper leagues. 2023 Projection: 67/18/74/.267/.339/.445/1

471) Joey Gallo MIN, OF, 29.5 – Gallo has a career .199 BA. He would have to hit like 60 homers to make that BA worth it in a 5×5 BA league. And his power has been in decline too with his EV dropping to a career low 89.6 MPH EV. He hit .160 with 19 homers in 410 PA. A “bounce back” to a .199 BA just doesn’t seem super appealing to me, and that isn’t even taking into account the power decline. I just don’t think I want the headache of him going 1 for 30 on my team hoping he hits a couple of dingers. In OBP leagues, I don’t mind taking the flier as a later round power bat. 2023 Projection: 71/28/67/.192/.318/.438/5

472) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 26.7 – Duran improved his plate approach from 2021 to 2022, but it’s still not good enough with a 28.3%/6.3% K%/BB% with led to a .645 OPS in 223 PA. He has that type of profile which Statcast underrates. He hits is hard 89.3/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he’s fast with a 29.2 ft/sec sprint, and he keeps the ball low with a 7.6 degree launch. If he can add more line drives rather than grounders, and/or make continued plate approach improvements, there could be a breakout in the cards. 2023 Projection: 48/9/42/.243/.304/.399/16

473) Elehuris Montero COL, 3B/1B, 24.8 – I’ll just start by saying who the hell knows if Colorado has any intention of giving Montero a full shot. They have a history of not giving guys of Montero’s prospect ilk a real shot, but to be fair, most (or all) of them haven’t turned out to be very good. Although on third thought maybe that is an indictment of Colorado’s ability to properly develop prospects. Montero has no doubt power that led to 15 homers in 65 games at Triple-A and 6 homers in 185 PA in the majors. His plate approach completely fell apart in the majors though with a 32.4%/4.3% K%/BB% (21.2%/9.1% K%/BB% at Double-A), he has below average speed, and short side of a platoon splits. Even with Rodgers’ injury, there still isn’t a guarantee he gets a ton of at bats with Moose and Nolan Jones to compete with. 2023 Projection: 47/16/54/.248/.304/.433/2

474) Eduardo Escobar NYM, 3B, 34.3 – Escobar is an average defensive player with average power and an average plate approach. If you factor in normal decline for a player entering his mid 30’s, he’s about to be below average. With the Correa fiasco, it seems he has the inside track for the 3B job, but Baty is still breathing down his neck. 2023 Projection: 62/20/69/.243/.303/.429/1

475) Jared Walsh LAA, 1B, 29.9 – Walsh’s plate approach fell apart in 2022 with a 30.4%/5.9% K%/BB% in 118 games, and his 10.7 degree launch wasn’t high enough to hit enough homers to make up for it, despite hitting the ball quite hard with a 90.1 MPH EV. It led to a 78 wRC+. His season ended in late August with a shoulder injury that required thoracic outlet surgery. Even for hitters, shoulder injuries can be very serious, and thoracic outlet surgery is a serious surgery. He’s expected to be ready to go for 2023, but that surgery adds more risk than I’m comfortable with. He’s basically a worst case scenario 1B option for me. 2023 Projection: 63/20/71/.246/.304/.444/1

476) Edouard Julien MIN, 2B, 23.11 – Julien’s 98 walks in 113 games at Double-A was the 6th best mark in all of the minors (his teammate, Matt Wallner, was 1 behind him with 97). He has a quick and simple lefty swing which produces good but not great power (17 homers), and he’s always had some swing and miss in his game with a 24.6% K%. I’m not sure I see a fantasy difference maker here, especially in a 5×5 BA league, and Minnesota doesn’t have the best ballpark to take shots on guys like this, but I definitely think he can be a solid MLB bat. 2023 Projection: 15/3/11/.238/.318/.402/1 Prime Projection: 78/19/71/.253/.338/.430/7

477) Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 25.2 – Nelson had a bumpy season at Triple-A in the PCL with a 5.43 ERA and 21.6% K% in 136 IP. His velocity was down into the low 90’s for much of the season. It was looking like a complete disaster year, but he managed to turn it around before the clock struck midnight. He brought his velocity back up to the mid 90’s in the 2nd half, and then he impressed in his MLB debut with a 1.47 ERA and 16/6 K/BB in 18.1 IP. His fastball averaged 94.8 MPH and he used it heavily with a 69.6% usage and .244 xwOBA against.. He combines that with 2 potentially plus breaking balls in his slider and curve to go along with a lesser used changeup. It’s a mid rotation profile if it all comes together. 2023 Projection: 7/4.38/1.31/154 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.90/1.27/177 in 175 IP

478) Brandon Walter BOS, LHP, 26.7 – Walter was shutdown in early June with a neck strain. If not for the injury, he very likely would have ended up higher on the list. He obliterated Double-A with a 2.88 ERA and 34.7%/1.5% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP. He got roughed up a bit in his 2 start Triple-A cup of coffee with a 8.22 ERA and 7/4 K/BB in 7.2 IP before going down with the injury, so he was never given the opportunity to right the ship there. He’s old for a prospect, but you can’t fake good stuff, and Walter’s stuff is on point. He uses a funky, herky jerky lefty delivery to fire a low to mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average changeup. Toss in plus control and it adds up to a relatively safe profile with some upside evidenced by the high K rate. 2023 Projection: 5/3.97/1.22/79 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.18/169 in 160 IP Update: Walter has looked healthy in spring, and he was one of my 9 Mild Predictions for 2023 Rookies where I wrote, “Boston’s entire rotation is filled with risk, whether it be age, injury, performance or experience. It runs the risk gamut. That’s why Walter is sure to rack up plenty of innings this season, and he puts up the kind of insane K/BB numbers where you simply have to force yourself not to overthink it. He had a 75/7 K/BB in 57.2 IP in 2022. He had a 8/0 K/BB in 5 IP this spring. He had a 132/20 K/BB in 89.1 IP in 2021. You can nit pick the low velocity, or the injuries, or the age, but like I mentioned above, let’s not overcomplicate things, this guy obviously knows what he’s doing on the mound. It reminds me of Joe Ryan’s career path a bit. Mild Prediction: Like Ryan, Walter’s strong K/BB numbers will immediately transfer to the majors despite the low 90’s velocity, and he’ll put up a 79/19 K/BB in 75 IP in 2023.

479) Jonathan Aranda TBR, 1B/2B/3B, 24.10 – Trying to figure out Tampa Bay playing time can be like trying to figure out a Rubik’s cube. There are like 90 million different variations they can go with. They have several guys who can all play several positions. Aranda, Lowe, Yandy, Brujan, Harold Ramirez, Paredes, Mead, Manzardo, Bethancourt, Walls, etc … are all in play in the infield. That depth is why it seems like a long shot that Aranda will end up with full time at bats in the near future, especially because he isn’t a particularly good defense player. What he can do though, is hit. He put up a 142 wRC+ with 18 homers and a 21.5% K% in 104 games at Triple-A, and while he only had a .596 OPS in 87 MLB PA, his 22.4% whiff% and 91.1 MPH EV leads me to believe he’ll be just fine in the majors too. 2023 Projection: 37/9/34/.260/.322/.424/2 Prime Projection: 79/22/77/.275/.336/.452/3

480) Alec Burleson STL, OF, 24.4 – Burleson is a St. Louis special. An underrated hitter who has quietly been raking forever. St. Louis’ ability to produce these types of prospects is likely a combo of superior scouting and superior development. He put up a 137 wRC+ with 20 homers and a 14.3% K% in 109 games at Triple-A. He made his MLB debut and while the surface stats didn’t look good with a .535 OPS in 53 PA, the underlying numbers looked good with a 91.7 MPH EV, 17.9%/9.4% K%/BB%, and .322 xwOBA. The upside might not be huge with a line drive approach, and he’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time, but I’m pretty confident in saying this guy is going to be a legit MLB hitter. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.262/.311/.430/1 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.277/.330/.451/2

481) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 20.9 – Caissie didn’t have a huge statistical season with a 113 wRC+ and 11 homers in 105 games, but taking into account Chicago gave him an aggressive assignment to High-A as a 19 year old, it’s not bad at all. He’s the same age as Kevin Alcantara who they sent to Single-A for comparison. Caissie’s 6’4”, 190 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is a geared for both power and average, but he’ll have to cut down on the K’s to maximize both with a 28.6% K%. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/25/78/.248/.332/.452/4

482) Jake Eder MIA, LHP, 24.6 – Eder missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but he should be good to go for 2023. When healthy, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus curve that put up a dominant pitching line of 1.77/0.98/99/27 in 71.1 IP at Double-A in 2021. He has prototypical starter size at 6’4”, 215 pounds with a repeatable lefty delivery and good control. It’s a mid rotation profile with added risk because of the surgery. 2023 Projection: 1/4.30/1.35/21 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.25/171 in 165 IP

483) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – Pepiot has had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen long term, but he does seem to be the favorite for the 5th starter with Gonsolin slated to start the year on the IL. 2023 Projection: 7/3.92/1.32/101 in 95 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP

484) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 24.9 – Baltimore has a ton of infield options for both this year and the future, but Ortiz is a dark horse candidate to win at bats considering his plus glove, and trades are always in play. He had a strong year in the upper levels of the minors, slashing .284/.349/.477 with 19 homers, 8 steals, and a 16.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in 137 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He got better as the year went on, finishing with a bang at Triple-A with a 154 wRC+ in 26 games. He’s always displayed a strong hit tool and his power ticked up this year. It’s a potential above average hit/power combo who is knocking on the door of the bigs. 2023 Projection: 12/3/15/.258/.316/.408/1 Prime Projection: 78/20/74/.269/.331/.430/7

485) Nate Pearson TOR, RHP, 26.7 – Don’t completely forget about Pearson. The guy just can’t stay healthy (15 IP in 2022), but the stuff is always nasty when he can take the mound. He pitched in the Dominican Winter League and put up a 0.00 ERA with a 16/4 K/BB in 12 IP out of the pen. His elite fastball/slider combo is made to be a late inning weapon. He’s on the delayed breakout path that AJ Puk just took, finally breaking out at 27. Maybe it won’t happen for them in the rotation, but they can be elite out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 4/3.68/1.24/69 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.35/1.13/85/33 saves in 65 IP

486) Matt Brash SEA, RHP, 24.10 – Brash’s lack of control got the best of him, putting up a 7.65 ERA with a 19/17 K/BB in 20 IP in the rotation to start the season. He got sent back down to Triple-A and was transitioned into the bullpen. He returned to the majors in a pen role and put up a 2.35 ERA with a 43/16 K/BB in his final 30.2 IP. His stuff is filthy with a 96.9 MPH fastball, a plus slider, and above average curve. Seattle will give him every opportunity to start, but it seems a high leverage reliever is his most likely outcome due to the lack of control. 2023 Projection: 4/3.15/1.16/89 in 65 IP

487) Chase Silseth LAA, RHP, 22.10 – Silseth’s poor, rushed MLB debut has him going for a very reasonable price this off-season, because his stuff and minor league performance would have pushed his value much higher if he hadn’t debuted. He put up a 6.59 ERA with a 24/12 K/BB in 28.2 IP in the majors as LA just didn’t have the rotation depth to properly nurture Silseth in the minors before throwing him in the fire. Conversely, he embarrassed Double-A hitters with a pitching line of 2.28/0.95/110/27 in 83 IP. He throws 95.4 MPH heat with a splitter and slider as his best secondaries, both of which held their own in the majors with a .301 xwOBA and .275 xwOBA, respectively. He also mixed in a sinker and curve. The stuff is big, he keeps the ball out of the air (7.5 degree launch), he misses bats, and his control has been pretty good going back to college. Use the poor MLB debut as a buying opportunity. 2023 Projection: 4/4.29/1.33/77 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.82/1.25/174 in 170 IP

488) Kyle Muller OAK, LHP, 25.6 – Oakland has a very shaky rotation to say the least, so Muller should get a real shot this year. He slings a 94.2 MPH fastball with a slider and curve that have both racked up whiffs against MLB hitters, but haven’t been that effective vs. them in general. He also mixes in a lesser used change. His minor league track is good, but not truly standout, and while his control took a step forward this year at Triple-A with a 7.4% BB%, it fell apart in the majors with a 13.6% K% in 12.1 IP. There is certainly some upside here, but he’s shaping up to be #4 starter at this point. 2023 Projection: 4/4.27/1.36/96 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.32/169 in 160 IP

489) Bailey Falter PHI, LHP, 25.11 – I named Bailey a low key, late round flier type target last off-season, and while Philly used him as an up and down arm for the most of the year, he excelled when they finally gave him a real shot. He put up a 3.00 ERA with 37/6 K/BB in 45 IP to close out the season. Plus control is his game with an elite 4.9% BB%. The stuff isn’t big with a 91 MPH sinker, but he has a 5 pitch mix that puts up respectable K rates with an almost average 21.2% K% and 23.8% whiff%. He won’t be a league winner, but he can a stabilizing force at the back of your fantasy rotation if he can make it through spring with the 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 9/3.89/1.23/127 in 140 IP

490) Michael Burrows PIT, RHP, 23.5 – Burrows has a filthy fastball/curve combo which he has good control over. He put up a 2.94 ERA with a 69/19 K/BB at Double-A before scuffling a bit at Triple-A with a 5.31 ERA and 42/12 K/BB in 42.1 IP. His changeup took a step forward this year, although it will need to continue to improve if he wants to remain a starter. He’s knocking on the door of the bigs and could be a sneaky pick to have a big impact in 2023. 2023 Projection: 3/4.22/1.30/59 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.25/165 in 160 IP

491) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 24.11 – Anderson is battling for the 5th starter job with Soroka, and with Soroka just ramping up from a hamstring injury, he could be the favorite to win it. He was terrible in 2022 with a 5.00 ERA and 19.7%/11% K%/BB% in 111.2 IP. He got sent down to Triple-A and was bad there too with a 5.40 ERA in 21.2 IP. The stuff is still good with a 94 MPH fastball and 2 above average secondaries in his change and curve. His still misses bats with a 28.4% whiff%, but it’s clear his stuff is not quite enough to get by with his current level of control/command. He needs to take a step forward in that area in 2023. 2023 Projection: 6/4.31/1.37/113 in 120 IP

492) Luis Patino TBR, RHP, 23.5 – Patino got murdered in the majors with a 8.10 ERA and 11/13 K/BB in 20 IP, and he wasn’t all that great at Triple-A either with a 4.50 ERA in 34 IP. An oblique strain knocked out a large chunk of his season and then a shoulder injury ended his season in September. His stuff was down to with his fastball sitting 94.6 MPH. It was a disaster all around. You can only hope he comes into 2023 completely healthy, but even then it doesn’t seem like Tampa has any intention to rush him into the rotation. His days of being a handed a job seem to be over. He might have to prove it in the pen first before getting another shot. 2023 Projection: 4/4.26/1.33/76 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.82/1.26/150 in 150 IP

493) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1 – Nastrini has an electric mid 90’s fastball which he combines with 3 effective secondaries in his slider, change, and curve. The stuff put up huge strikeout numbers with a 35.1% K% in 116.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. On the downside, his control is shaky at best with an 11.4% BB%, and he walked 38 batters in 31.1 IP in 2021 in the Pac 12. The delivery isn’t particularly athletic either. It seems like he’s destined for a multi inning pen for the first few years of his career unless LA trades him, which is certainly in play. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.26/172 in 155 IP

494) Griff McGarry PHI, RHP, 23.10 – McGarry has a mid to upper 90’s fastball that literally looks like it is swimming through the air. Hitters have had some ugly swings trying to square that thing up. The secondaries are nasty too with a plus slider, plus cutter, a changeup that flashes plus, and a curve as well. It led to a 35.7% K% in 87.1 IP split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). It’s top of the rotation stuff. The one snafu is that his control is very bad. He had a 14.6% BB%. His 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP doesn’t exactly pop. His control issues were actually much worse than this in college (42 walks in 43 IP in the ACC in 2021), so this is improvement. I’m not sure if that means there could be continued improvement coming, or if this is the top of his ability. He very well could end up in the bullpen, and that is likely the most likely outcome, but if his control can take just one more step forward, he’s going to be a major problem. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.67/1.28/172 in 150 IP

495) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

496) Lenyn Sosa CHW, SS/2B, 22.7 – I’m not completely buying into the numbers, but Sosa had an incredible statistical breakout in 2022, slashing .315/.369/.511 with 23 homers, 3 steals, and a 15.5%/7.6% K%/BB% in 119 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. His 118 wRC+ at Triple-A is probably more indicative of his true talent level. He also struggled in his MLB debut with a 33.3%/2.8% K%/BB% and .368 OPS in 36 PA. Jonathan Schoop is a realistic good outcome scenario for Sosa. 2023 Projection: 23/4/28/.252/.306/.401/1 Prime Projection: 75/21/75/.268/.324/.432/3

497) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 24.1 – Foscue drastically improved his contact rates, bringing it down from 27% in 2021 to 14.3% in 101 games at Double-A in 2022. He hit only 15 homers, but he was much better in the power department in the 2nd half with 11 homers in his last 45 games. He’s not going to be a fantasy star, but he’s a very legitimate MLB bat. 2023 Projection: Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.267/.330/.454/3

498) Max Muncy OAK, SS, 20.8 – Muncy is a bat speed monster with a dangerous righty swing that led to 19 homers in 123 games split between Single-A (106 wRC+ in 81 games) and High-A (90 wRC+ in 42 games). He combines that with above average speed and a willingness to run with 19 stolen bases. The hit tool is the issue as he has high strikeout rates (30.4% K%) and a low batting average (.229 BA). He’s also in a bad situation in Oakland, and it’s not like there is a massive wave of hitting talent ready to pop. Even with the hit tool risk and situation, there is legitimate fantasy friendly upside that isn’t getting the respect it deserves. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/25/84/.243/.326/.458/13

499) Yiddi Cappe MIA, SS/3B, 20.6 – The 19 year old Cappe ripped up inferior competition in rookie ball with a 139 wRC+ in 30 games, but his numbers dropped off at the more age appropriate Single-A with a 91 wRC+ in 37 games. Regardless of the drop off, it’s still a very exciting profile. He’s a scout’s dream at a projectable 6’3”, 175 pounds and he’s put up elite contact rates his entire career (14.4% K% at Single-A and 13.2% K% at High-A). He doesn’t have any groundball issues (38.1% GB%), so the power will certainly tick up, and he ripped 9 homers in 67 games this year. He has some speed, but he’s likely to slow down as he gains weight, and he isn’t a good baserunner, going 22 for 35 on steal attempts in his career. It’s a profile that can go in any number of different directions with both upside and a safe floor. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/22/74/.278/.333/.441/9

500) Xavier Isaac TBR, 1B, 19.3 – Selected 29th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Isaac is a first base only prospect, so that tells you how much the smart Tampa organization believes in his bat to take him this high. He has huge raw power and it also comes with a plus plate approach and good feel to hit to all fields. He has the foundation to be one of those do everything big lefty power hitting 1B in the mold of Yordan or Freeman if you are looking for absolute ceiling comps. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/28/84/.263/.345/.492/2

501) Brady House WAS, SS, 19.10 – House simply didn’t live up to the hype in his first full pro season. In 45 games at Single-A he struck out too much (29.1% K%), he didn’t walk enough (5.9% BB%), he didn’t hit for power (3 homers with a 50.9% GB%), and he stole a single base. A back injury ended his season on June 11th. The fact he was still able to put up a 108 wRC+ shows just how talented he is at an athletic 6’4”, 215 pounds, and almost all of those games came as an 18-year-old, so the ceiling is still very high with continued refinement. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection; 77/25/84/.257/.328/.476/7

502) Jack Leiter TEX, RHP, 22.11 – It was nothing short of a disaster season for Leiter. He put up a pitching line of 5.54/1.55/109/56 in 92.2 IP at Double-A. Frisco leaned toward being a pitcher’s park too, so he doesn’t have that excuse to use either. The only excuse he does have is that making his pro debut at Double-A was an aggressive assignment, and one he pretty clearly wasn’t ready for. I mentioned in a previous Dynasty Team Report that it can be easy to write minor leaguers off after having a bad year, even though baseball players have bad years all the time. It’s just the way the cookie crumble sometimes. He still has the top level stuff that made him the 2nd overall pick in the draft, and I’m expecting him to have a much better year in 2023. 2023 Projection: 2/4.32/1.39/37 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/175 in 170 IP

503) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Horton underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2021, so he was just rounding into form during the 2nd half of 2022, resulting in him peaking during the College World Series with dominant outing after dominant outing. Plus mid 90’s heat with an at least plus slider is his game, and that combo gives him high upside with the floor of a high leverage reliever. He also throws a curve and change, and he hasn’t shown any major control issues in the short time he’s pitched in college (53.2 IP in his college career all coming this year). Chicago is clearly taking advantage of the lack of track record and betting on the upside. It’s your call if you want to do the same. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/180 in 163 IP

504) Cooper Hjerpe STL, LHP, 21.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Hjerpe is a classic Cardinals pick of a rock solid, safe starter who might be better in real life than fantasy. I say “might be,” because he has that funky lefty delivery that I am an absolute sucker for, but I’m also staying conservative on his ranking because the stuff says more 3/4 type starter with a low 90’s fastball, and I’m concerned more advanced hitters won’t be quite as thrown off by the delivery. Regardless, he dominated the Pac12 with a 2.53 ERA and 161/23 K/BB in 103.1 IP, and he’s in a great developmental organization. If you play in a deep league or league where good real life pitchers get bumps, I can definitely see targeting Hjerpe and drafting him much higher than this. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.87/1.24/ 172 in 172 IP

505) Dylan Lesko SD, LHP, 19.7 – Selected 15th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lesko underwent Tommy John surgery in late April, but I like him so much I would still grab him high. Here’s what I wrote about Lesko before the injury: “Lesko is the best pitcher in the draft with plus control of a mid 90’s fastball, a filthy changeup that has over 10 MPH of separation, and a still developing but potentially plus breaking ball. High school pitchers aren’t necessarily the best investment, especially in dynasty, but this guy already looks relatively polished on the mound and advanced beyond his years.” And that is one of the main reasons why high school pitchers are generally not good investments. You need to prepare for a solid 1-2 years where they are out with Tommy John. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 13/3.62/1.18/192 in 175 IP

506) Yainer Diaz HOU, C, 24.6 – The Astros have just been begging for someone to step up and take ahold of their catcher job, and Diaz seems next in line to get his shot. He ran roughshod over the upper minors with a plus contact/raw power profile, putting up a 16.3% K% with 25 homers in 105 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. Good things happen when you make lots of hard contact. The things that are keeping me hesitant are that he’s a free swinger with low walk rates, and he doesn’t hit many flyballs with a high GB%. The previous presumed catcher of the future, Korey Lee, didn’t have a great year (90 wRC+ at Triple-A), but he’s also still firmly in the mix for the job. 2023 Projection: 33/9/39/.251/.307/.428/1 Prime Projection: 57/21/72/.268/.320/.453/2

507) Edgar Quero LAA, C, 20.0 – Quero destroyed rookie ball in 2021 with a 151 wRC+ and he looked even better in many respects at Single-A in 2022, slashing .312/.435/.530 with 17 homers, 12 steals and a 17.7%/14.2% K%/BB% in 111 games. His hit tool and power both leveled up at the more advanced level, and it’s easy to see why as he swings such a quick bat if you blink, you’ll miss it. He’s not a monster raw power guy at 5’11 and he’s not fast either, so I don’t think the upside is huge. An above average hit/power projection is fair, but that bat speed could easily end up beating that projection. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/23/79/.272/.345/.467/5

508) James Triantos CHC, 3B, 20.2 – Triantos has a short and quick righty swing that is made for contact. He had a 16.1%/7.7% K%/BB% with a .272 BA in 113 games at Single-A. The power just isn’t here yet with only 7 homers and a .386 slugging, and quite frankly, he’s already pretty thick. I’m sure he will add more power considering he’s barely 20 years old, but he’s definitely a hit tool first player. He’s not a burner, but he does have some speed, nabbing 20 bags in 23 attempts. It’s not my favorite profile to go after in fantasy, but he’s a safe prospect with solid across the board potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/18/66/.281/.342/.429/11

509) Austin Martin MIN, SS, 24.0 – Coming off a 2021 where Martin hit 5 homers in 93 games at Double-A, the power had nowhere to go but up … or so we thought. It actually got even worse this year with only 2 homers in 92 games. It’s almost impressive. He had a near elite 13.3% K%, but he did so little damage when he made contact he still hit only .241. The one saving grace to his profile is his speed as he nabbed 34 bases, and he also had a very good 11.6% BB%. He gets the bat on the ball, gets on base, and is a good baserunner. You also can’t rule out a mid 20’s power breakout. And while I cautioned against putting too much stock on AFL numbers in the Nationals Team Report, it’s good to see him ripping up the league with a .936 OPS in 21 games. I’m not ready to give up on Martin completely. 2023 Projection: 18/1/11/.243/.301/.378/4 Prime Projection: 77/14/65/.260/.329/.417/18

510) Cole Young SEA, SS, 19.8 – Selected 21st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Young is kinda similar to Edwin Arroyo (selected 48th by Seattle in 2021) in the sense he doesn’t necessarily jump off the screen, but there is still an exciting set of tools led by the plus hit. He did damage in his pro debut, slashing .367/.423/.517 with 2 homers, 4 steals, and a 8/8 K/BB in 17 games split between rookie ball and Single-A (he actually performed better at Single-A than rookie). He’s a very solid 6’0”, 180 pounds with above average speed and the ability to put a sting into the ball, although his well over 50% GB% will limit his power. It’s not the highest upside profile, but it’s a safe one with the potential to contribute in every category ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/17/62/.274/.340/.428/15

511) Anthony Solometo PIT, LHP, 20.4 – I was a big Solometo fan coming out of the 2021 Draft, and he did nothing to take me off that stance in his pro debut in 2022 with a 2.64 ERA and 51/19 K/BB in 47.2 IP at Single-A. He has a funky, sidearm lefty delivery which Single-A hitters had nightmares picking up. His low 90’s sinker is a plus pitch and his changeup is potentially plus. His control isn’t great and he needs to improve his slider, but there is a foundation here to be an impact MLB starter. If he falls short of that, he has a backup plan of a high leverage reliever. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.88/1.27/168 in 160 IP

512) Yasser Mercedes MIN, OF, 18.5 – I mentioned in the Red Sox Team Report that Miguel Bleis has a chance to be an elite prospect very quickly into 2023, and Mercedes is setting up to be the 2023 version of the 2022 Bleis. Mercedes is a high priced international signing with a long and projectable frame who performed well in his first year of pro ball in the DSL, slashing .355/.421/.555 with 4 homers, 30 steals, and a 19.9%/10.2% K%/BB% in 41 games. I ranked Mercedes 322nd overall in last year’s Top 500 because I liked his “silky smooth righty swing.” The risk is still very high, but he has a chance to be that rocket ship prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.253/.325/.452/16

513) Lazaro Montes SEA, OF, 18.6 – I fell in love with Montes’ graceful lefty swing from a 6’3”, 210 pound frame last off-season, and he didn’t disappoint in 2022, slashing .284/.422/.585 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 33.2%/15.7% K%/BB% in 55 games in the DSL. It’s legitimate 40+ homer potential, but I can’t deny the 33.2% K% against the very weak DSL pitching isn’t concerning. The high walk rate shows that some of that was because of his extreme patience, but it gives him major hit tool risk, and as a corner outfielder, his bat will have to hit close to it’s ceiling to lock in playing time. I’m still betting on the talent long term, but not as much as I would have with better K rates. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/34/84/.238/.320/.502/4

514) Eduardo Rodriguez DET, LHP, 30.0 – A rib injury and personal issue knocked out Rodriguez for 3 months in the middle of the season and limited him to 91 IP. He didn’t look great when on the mound with a career low 18.4% K% (27.4% in 2021) and career low 91.7 MPH fastball. He should have a better year in 2023, but I wouldn’t be willing to pay very much for it. 2023 Projection: 9/4.15/1.33/142 in 155 IP

515) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 24.8 – Sanchez underwent his 2nd shoulder surgery in as many years in early October. I get completely throwing in the towel on Sanchez, but he’s expected to be ready to go for Spring, and I find it hard to just throw away such a talented pitcher who had a great MLB debut in 2020. I don’t own him anywhere, but if I did, I am stashing him on my bench (or in my farm system) for one more year to see what I have. Maybe he’s never the same, but it would kill me to see him bounce back on someone else’s team after I dropped him. He’s a total mystery right now, and the odds might not be looking great for him, but I’m giving him one final shot. 2023 Projection: 3/4.31/1.36/51 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 8/3.98/1.26/134 in 140 IP

516) Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 23.0 – Graceffo has big stuff with a fastball he can get into the upper 90’s, and he has plus control with a 6.3% BB% at Double-A, but the strikeout numbers leave something to be desired. He put up a pitching line of 3.94/1.07/83/24 in 93.2 IP at Double-A. It was good for a 4.63 xFIP. He didn’t put up big K numbers in college either, although he was able to destroy High-A with a 33.9% K% in 45.2 IP, so there could be more in the tank. He’s a big dude at 6’4”, 210 pounds with a herky jerky righty delivery that doesn’t exactly scream upside. He strikes me as a #4 type starter who could play up with St. Louis’ excellent defense behind him. 2023 Projection: 1/4.38/1.31/12 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.94/1.24/161 in 175 IP

517) Paul Blackburn OAK, RHP, 29.4 – Blackburn’s hot start (1.70 ERA in his first 47.2 IP) had people wondering if he was the next Chris Bassitt, and the answer to that question ended up being … no. He put up a 6.22 IP in 63.2 IP the rest of the way and then his season ended in early August with a torn middle finger. Regardless of the poor finish, he is still an interesting option for the back of your fantasy rotation. He has plus control (6.4% BB%) of a 6 pitch mix, and his 19.1% K% was a career high. Oakland is also one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league. He has the potential to put up some playable ratios, WHIP in particular. 2023 Projection: 8/3.98/1.24/140 in 165 IP

518) German Marquez COL, RHP, 28.1 – Now that Jon Gray has been freed, Marquez is the poster boy for another career tanked because of Colorado. I love Colorado as a state, they obviously need to have a baseball team, but I can’t deny I question if they should. Everything doesn’t need to be cookie cutter and perfect, and I like the quirkiness of baseball where every ballpark is different, but I simply feel bad for the pitchers. Regardless, life ain’t perfect (far from it), and Marquez is forced to make do with what he has (millions and millions of dollars). He throws gas with two 95+ MPH fastballs (4-seamer/sinker) and two plus breaking balls in his slider and curve, although the curve was unsarcastically bad this year. He also keeps the ball the ground with a 47.6% GB%. It should all add up to a near ace profile, but in Coors he’s turned into a back end fantasy starter who put up a 4.95 ERA (4.49 xERA) in 181.2 IP. 2023 Projection: 11/4.23/1.30/168 in 180 IP

519) Adam Wainwright STL, RHP, 41.7 – I love it when a former ace can make that late career transition to still be a good MLB starter with diminished stuff. And the stuff just keeps on diminishing for Wainwright with a career low 88.1 MPH fastball and 16.9% whiff%. It didn’t stop him from producing though with a 3.71 ERA in 191.2 IP. His days of being a league winner are obviously long over, and even the barely over 3.00 ERA’s he put up in 2020/21 might be over too, but the guy just keeps chugging along as an effective MLB starter. 2023 Projection: 11/3.98/1.30/143 in 180 IP

520) Corey Kluber BOS, RHP, 37.0 – Kluber always had the control and pitchability to remain effective even as his stuff diminishes, and that is exactly how it is playing out. He put up a 3% BB% in 164 IP which is in the elite of the elite. He only had a 4.34 ERA (4.00 xERA) with a 20.2% K%, so the upside is gone, but he can still be serviceable. 2023 Projection: 9/4.14/1.23/140 in 160 IP

521) Seth Lugo SDP, RHP, 33.5 – Lugo will compete for a starter job in spring, and has a fallback plan of being a pretty good setup guy. His plus curve is his most used pitch which he combines with a mid 90’s 4 seamer and sinker. It led to an impressive 25.4%/6.6% K%/BB% (3.60 ERA) in 65 IP. There is definitely some upside here, but he isn’t guaranteed to win a rotation spot and I wouldn’t expect him to pitch quite as well in longer outings. 2023 Projection: 7/3.91/1.26/123 in 120 IP

522) John Means BAL, RHP, 29.11 – Means went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery after just two starts in April. It will likely keep him out until mid-season. When healthy, he has plus control over a low 90’s fastball, plus curve, and above average changeup. Control is usually the last thing to come back after surgery, so I would be hesitant to count on him for this season. 2023 Projection: 3/4.04/1.26/54 in 60 IP

523) Matt Manning DET, RHP, 25.3  – Manning returned from the prospect graveyard and showed some life this season with a 3.43 ERA in 63 IP. The underlying numbers don’t look as good with a 4.00 xERA and 18.3%/7.2% K%/BB%. The fastball only sits 93.2 MPH and the slider had a below average .321 xwOBA. I’m not really buying in, but there is at least a glimmer of hope. 2023 Projection: 6/4.25/1.35/120 in 140 IP

524) Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 25.8 – Garrett doesn’t have a rotation spot right now, and he might be behind like 2 or 3 other guys too, so he’s more of a stash type. If he did have a spot, I would like him a lot more. He put up a 3.58 ERA in 88 IP in 2022. He’s more of a junk baller type with a 5 pitch mix and a 91.4 MPH fastball, but he gets whiffs with an above average 26.6% whiff% and throws the ball over the plate with a 6.4% BB%. 2023 Projection: 5/3.85/1.29/80 in 80 IP

525) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 27.8 – 2022 seemed to officially put Senzel in the bust category. He got 420 AB and put up a .601 OPS. He’s also dealing with complications from from toe surgery that will land him on the IL to start the season. He gets the bat on the ball (18.1% K%) and has plus speed (28.7 ft/sec sprint), but he just doesn’t do enough damage with a 3.3% Barrel%. At this point, the former prospect hype doesn’t mean anything. He’s a fringy option. 2023 Projection: 50/12/43/.249/.312/.357/10

526) Casey Mize DET, RHP, 25.11 – Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is likely to miss all or the vast majority of 2023. He simply hasn’t been able to miss enough bats or induce enough weak contact to be an effective fantasy option, and adding the surgery on top of that is too much risk for me to take. He’s not a huge stuff guy either with a 93+ MPH fastball. I’m not buying the name value. 2023 Projection: OUT

527) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 23.5 – Liberatore managed to get worse his 2nd run through Triple-A. He put up a 4.04 ERA in 124.2 IP in 2021, and then a 5.17 ERA in 115 IP in 2022. His MLB debut didn’t go much better with a 5.97 ERA and 17.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. The numbers don’t look great, but he has the stuff and repertoire to be a mid to back end starter. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a beautiful plus curveball that is a plus pitch, putting up a .259 xwOBA and 35.2% whiff%. He combines that with a 93.7 MPH fastball that is his most used pitch, a 92.8 MPH sinker that was not effective at inducing grounders (14 degree launch), a 85.9 MPH changeup that got destroyed, and a 86 MPH slider that is his least used pitch but was excellent when he went to it (.176 xwOBA). Even watching him in the minors I thought it was clear he has to go to his curve more (and slider more too). He’s not a finished product, but the ingredients are there for him to turn into a solid MLB starter if he can find the right pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 4/4.25/1.31/77 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.91/1.26/166 in 170 IP Update:  Liberatore looks like he could be taking the next step with his spring performance. In his last outing, the fastball sat 94.8 MPH (up 1.1 MPH), the sinker was up to 95.2 MPH (up 2.5 MPH) and the spin on the curveball was up 124 rpm to 2861. The curve notched a 60% whiff%. This is a pretty legit development, and it makes it much more likely for Liberatore to reach his mid rotation upside

528) Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 22.7 – Priester definitely looks the part when you watch him at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and deep pitch repertoire. The curve is his best secondary and he generally throws the ball over the plate. The problem is that the numbers just aren’t all that standout with a pitching line of 3.29/1.21/89/30 in 90.1 IP. It’s good, but doesn’t scream truly impact fantasy starter. He also got hit up in the AFL with a 6.26 ERA in 23 IP. Mid-rotation is a reasonable upside, and back end starter could be more likely. 2023 Projection: 2/4.52/1.42/43 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.27/156 in 165 IP

529) Felnin Celesten SEA, SS, 17.6 – Expected to sign for over $4 million, Celesten has that super smooth lefty swing (he also hits righty) in the mold of a Marcelo Mayer, George Valera, and Zac Veen. It just screams offensive potential. He’s also an excellent athlete with plus speed. We’ve seen plenty of international prospects with smooth swings just not hit enough against more advanced competition, but it’s hard not to fall in love with the swing and tools. Considering the last couple international classes haven’t really popped, Celesten could come at a very reasonable price in 2023 First Year Player Drafts. This could be the year to dive back into this market. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.268/.336/.470/18

530) Emmanuel Valdez BOS, 2B/3B, 24.3 – Valdez is not a big man at 5’9”, 191 pounds, but he puts up big man power numbers with 26 homers in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2021, which he followed up with 28 homers in 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s not a big base stealer, his hit tool is solid but not standout, and he’s not great on defense, so a lot is riding on that power from a small frame. 2023 Projection: 34/7/31/.243/.319/.427/2 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.335/.452/7

531) Kyren Paris LAA, 2B/SS, 21.5 – Paris is one of my favorite underrated prospects in the minors. He had a rough start to the season at High-A, but he picked it up majorly in the 2nd half, slashing .272/.394/.496 with 12 homers, 17 steals, and a 24,5%/13.5% K%/BB% in his final 64 games. 14 of those games came at Double-A where he dominated with a 205 wRC+. He has blazing speed and there is definitely some legit power in here too at 6’0”, 180 pounds with a pretty vicious righty swing. Only more power is coming from here. The K rates have been too high his entire career, and while he mitigates that with a high walk rate, it’s still a legitimate concern. He’s a high risk, high reward prospect, and for the sweetheart price he will go for this off-season, I’ll take that upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/18/66/.237/.321/.420/24

532) Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 20.8 – Martinez is a solid across the board type with a strong plate approach (17.5%/12% K%/BB%), emerging pop (13 homers in 101 games) and some speed (12 steals in 19 attempts). Most of the damage came at High-A, but he more than held his own as a 20 year old at Triple-A with a 120 wRC+ in 24 games. A power explosion would take his profile to the next level, but not sure you can really bet on that. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/17/63/.274/.341/.424/13

533) Axel Sanchez SEA, SS, 20.4 – Sanchez looks cool as a cucumber in the box before exploding on the ball. He has easy athleticism and was known more for his glove than his bat prior to this year. The bat really shined in 2022 though, slashing .283/.365/.510 with 10 homers, 13 steals, and a 24.9%/9.1% K%/BB% split between rookie (117 wRC+ in 27 games), Single-A (155 wRC+ in 33 games), and High-A (38 wRC+ in 8 games). There is still plenty of refinement needed, but he reminds me a bit of Jeremy Pena. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/20/72/.250/.322/.428/13

534) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 19.3 – Hernandez is still a super talented, tooled up teenager with plenty of reasons to be excited about his future, but there are a lot of super talented, tooled up teenagers in the minors who performed better than Hernandez in 2022. He put up a .677 OPS with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 30.3%/7.4% K%/BB% in 44 games. He’s still a projectable 6’2”, 175 pounds with an explosive righty swing that does damage on contact, but plenty of refinement is still needed. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/23/78/.252/.326/.453/12

535) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – LA targeted Frasso in a trade for Mitch White mid-season, which shows the smart LA organization are believers. Frasso has an electric arm action which spits fire with a plus mid 90’s fastball. His slider and changeup are also pretty nasty at their best. It led to a 1.83 ERA with a 76/17 K/BB in 54 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+. AA). He wasn’t as good at Double-A (5.40 ERA in 11.2 IP), he never pitched more than 4 IP, and he’s on the old side, but it’s hard not to get excited when you watch him pitch. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.85/1.26/156in 150 IP

536) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 22.4 – The Dodgers seem to grow these guys on trees. Sheehan is another underrated Dodgers arm with a plus mid to upper 90’s fastball and plus changeup (he throws a curve and slider too) that he used to dominate High-A. He had a 2.91 ERA with a 106/31 K/BB in 68 IP. It was mostly in short outings, and his control isn’t great, so the bullpen risk is high, but the upside is legit. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.28/161 in 145 IP

537) Kumar Rocker TEX, RHP, 23.4 – After the Mets gave Rocker the hatchet job, he re-entered the draft this year and shoved it in the Mets face after he got drafted 3rd overall. High heat and then burying the low slider is his game, and his game racks up strikeouts with a 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP (2.73 ERA) in the SEC in 2021. He had shoulder surgery in September but returned in time to pitch 30 innings in Indy Ball where he looked back to full health. Now he’s in the AFL and looking a little rusty with a 5.40 ERA and 5/7 K/BB in 5 IP. The delivery isn’t super athletic, his control has never been pinpoint, and his changeup could use some improvement. Objectively there seems to be some bullpen risk, but his track record as a starter is long, and we gotta cut him some slack with everything that happened with him over the last year. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/179 in 168 IP

538) Brock Porter TEX, RHP, 19.10 – Selected 109th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Porter is a bit old for the class and he looks it as he’s already pretty filled out. The delivery also looks a bit unrefined and raw to me, but the stuff is undeniable with a fastball that has hit 100 MPH and a dive bombing changeup. The curve and slider look pretty damn good too and should only get better from here. The upside is considerable, but there are a few red flags that keep me from going all in on him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.78/1.25/186 in 172 IP

539) Landon Sims ARI, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 34th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Sims underwent Tommy John surgery on March 15th, just 3 starts into his 2022 season. He has an elite fastball/slider combo which led to a 100/15 K/BB in 56.1 IP coming out of the pen in 2021, and a 27/2 K/BB in 15.2 IP in his 3 starts this year. The changeup is still a bit of a question mark, he has a very limited track record as a starter, and the surgery adds risk, but the upside is definitely exciting. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/3.78/1.25/175 in 155 IP

540) Noah Schultz CHW, LHP, 19.8 – Selected 26th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Schultz is the high school version of Cooper Hjerpe if you added on 6 inches. He has a very similar funky lefty delivery which he uses to throw a low to mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider, and a developing change. The size and delivery is exciting, and can make you dream on his potential, but I’m not sure the current stuff is fair to really project at the top of the rotation quite yet. Maybe it ends up there though. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.91/1.26/182 in 174 IP

541) Brandon Barriera TOR, LHP, 19.1 – Selected 23rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Barriera isn’t a physical specimen or someone with jaw dropping stuff. He does a lot of things well though with a bat sawing sinking fastball that he can consistently get into the mid 90’s, a slider that flashes plus but still needs refinement, a curve and change that both have potential, and good control. Mid rotation starter is a reasonable projection for him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.83/1.21/178 in 170 IP

542) Joey Votto CIN, 1B, 39.7 – It sure seems like this could be Votto’s final season. He put up a 92 wRC+ in 91 games and his season ended with rotator cuff surgery. His 25.8% K% was a career worst and his 11.7% BB% was a 14 year low. He still had an above average .322 xwOBA and hit the ball hard with a 95.8 MPH FB/LD EV, so it’s not hard to see him going out on top playing in one of the best ballparks in the league. He’s a flier with a little upside, as crazy as it is to say a 39 year old has upside. 2023 Projection: 66/23/76/.243/.335/.448/0

543) Nelson Cruz SDP, DH, 42.9 – Cruz blamed his poor 2022 (.651 OPS) on an eye issue which he underwent surgery to repair. His .320 xwOBA was still slightly above average, and he still hit the ball hard with a 90.9 MPH EV, so it certainly seems like he can still be a fantasy contributor. 2023 Projection: 68/21/77/.251/.333/.448/2

544) Nick Fortes MIA, C, 26.4 – Fortes has that juicy fantasy profile of getting the bat on the ball (18.8% K%), hitting the ball hard (89.3 MPH EV), and hitting it in the air (15.4 degree launch). He also has above average speed as the cherry on top with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to 9 homers, 5 steals, and a 100 wRC+ in 72 games. He underperformed the underlying numbers a bit, and at only 26 there could future improvements from here. He seems like the Marlins catcher of the future and there is legitimate fantasy upside here, but Jacob Stallings could eat into his playing time in 2023. 2023 Projection: 45/16/53/.243/.316/.425/6

545) Joey Bart SFG, C, 26.3 – The former 2nd overall pick in the 2018 Draft, Bart was just never able to improve his hit tool, and it kept getting progressively worse as he faced more advanced competition. It hit a crescendo in the majors with a 38.5% K% and 38% whiff%, which led to a .215 BA in 97 games. His power wasn’t nearly big enough to make up for it with a below average 87.3/91.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, which led to 11 homers. With all the catcher talent bubbling up into the majors, Bart is more name value than anything at this point, and I’m not even sure his name carries all that much value anymore. His 114.3 Max EV (Top 5% of the league) shows there is clearly more raw juice in the tank, and catchers are notorious for developing later in their careers, but he’s merely a late round catcher option for me. 2023 Projection: 52/18/59/.228/.305/.403/3

546) Jonah Heim TEX, C, 27.9 – Heim’s profile is very similar to Danny Jansen’s, except Jansen hits the ball harder, especially in the air. Heim has a plus plate approach (19.3%/9.1% K%/BB%) with an above average 89.3 MPH EV and a fantasy friendly 17 degree launch angle. The 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV will cap his power potential, but he still hit 16 homers in 127 games. This was the most power he’s hit for in his career, so it’s hard to project him taking it to another level. A healthy Mitch Garver could also carve into his playing time. 2023 Projection: 42/15/46/.242/.318/.416/2

547) Mike Yastrzemski SFG, OF, 32.8 – Yastrzemski is a strong side of a platoon power bat who they threw out there a lot vs lefties last year, probably to his detriment as he put up a .575 OPS vs. them. His extreme 19.9 MPH EV in a poor homer ballpark with the dead balls resulted in a .214 BA. He could use juicier balls in the 2023, and you aren’t going to want to play him vs. lefties even if SF does. 2023 Projection: 74/21/66/.238/.323/.424/5

548) Jeimer Candelario WASH, 3B, 29.4 – Candelario looks pretty locked in as Washington’s starting 3B. He had a terrible year in 2022 with his EV dropping 1.5 MPH to 87.2 MPH, and his BB% dropping 4.4 percentage points to 6%. It led to .633 OPS and .292 xwOBA. He’s not a high upside option, but at 29, it seems reasonable to expect a bounce back to career norms. It’s just that the career norms are under 20 homers with no speed and a below average BA. 2023 Projection: 66/17/64/.246/.318/.405/1

549) Jonathan Schoop DET, 2B, 31.6 – 2022 was a straight disaster for Schoop. He put up a 58 wRC+, and the scary part is nothing in the underlying numbers were really outside of career norms. I guess you can say that gives hope for a bounce back, and some of it was surely bad luck with a .234 BABIP, but a .268 xwOBA shows it was mostly legit. Even in a good year Schoop is pretty mediocre offensively, and now with him aging and coming off a truly horrific year, I’m not looking to buy low. Plus 2B defense is his one saving grace for playing time. 2023 Projection: 68/17/63/.241/.298/.426/4

550) Kyle Bradish BAL, RHP, 26.7 – Bradish struggled in his MLB debut with a 4.89 ERA in 117.2 IP, but there are still plenty of things to like. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 94.6 MPH fastball with all 3 of his secondaries (slider, change, curve) putting up an above average xwOBA. His control wasn’t too bad with a 9% BB%, and his K% was about average at 21.8%. I wouldn’t expect a big breakout, but he can certainly take a step forward in year 2. 2023 Projection: 8/4.20/1.34/140 in 150 IP

551) Spencer Turnbull DET, RHP, 30.7 – Turnbull missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be fully healthy for 2023. He was in the midst of making big improvement with his control in 2021 before going down with the injury, and he certainly has MLB quality stuff with a 94.9 MPH sinker, plus slider, and a 6 pitch mix. If the control gains hold, he is a legitimate breakout candidate, but it’s hard to buy in too hard his first year back from Tommy John. 2023 Projection: 8/4.14/1.30/128 in 140 IP

552) TJ Friedl CIN, OF, 27.8 – Friedl has opportunity in Cincy, especially with Senzel not healing as fast as they thought from the toe surgery. He’s a plus contact guy (15.5% K%) with speed (28.2 ft/sec sprint) and just enough pop to keep him interesting (87.2 MPH EV). His extreme launch angle (19.8 degrees) does not fit his profile though. It hurts him. 2023 Projection: 56/11/48/.242/.318/.412/14

553) Victor Robles WAS, OF, 25.10 – Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get any worse, it got worse. Robles put up a career worst .584 OPS. His EV number are still horrific with an 84.6 MPH EV. He’s still slotted in as Washington’s starting CF, because why not considering how bad Washington is, but all he’s going to contribute to your fantasy squad is some steals while hurting you everywhere else. 2023 Projection: 53/8/44/.232/.294/.360/17

554) Chas McCormick HOU, OF, 27.11 – McCormick beat out Jake Meyers for the larger piece of the CF job, and it seems he still has that job unless Pedro Leon can wrestle it from him. He’s a low upside option with some pop (14 homers in 119 games), speed (28.7 ft/sec sprint), and lots of swing and miss (32.2% whiff%). 2023 Projection: 54/15/51/.248/.326/.415/6

555) Andrew McCutchen PIT, OF, 36.5 – McCutchen still has some juice in his bat, putting up an above average .325 xwOBA in 134 games. He’s also still impressively fast for a 36 year old with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. Landing back with Pitt is probably a best case scenario for playing time purposes. 2023 Projection: 61/18/65/.248/.329/.431/7

556) Aaron Hicks NYY, OF, 33.6 – The trade for Bader has Hicks battling for the LF job. He dropped off in 2022 with a 6 year low 5.8% Barrel% and .642 OPS. It’s very likely he’s entering a decline phase, but his underlying numbers weren’t that far off from career norms that it would be surprising to see a bounce back. He also stole 10 bags with his speed bouncing back with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed. 2023 Projection: 52/14/50/.235/.323/.408/7

557) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 36.9 – Blackmon’s decline first knocked out his stolen bases, and now it’s worked it’s way to his power. He hit just 16 homers with 4 steals in 135 games. His 86.2 MPH EV and was a career low and his 5.5% BB% was an 8 year low. It’s now the third year in a row he’s had a wRC+ under 100. Coors Field and plus contact rates still give him some value, but I’m not expecting a bounce back to his prime days. 2023 Projection: 71/18/79/.269/.331/.422/4

558) Matt Carpenter SDP, OF, 37.4 – Carpenter had a come back for the ages in 2022, putting up a ridiculous 1.138 OPS with a 15 homers in 47 games. He season ended in August with a broken foot, although he was able to make it back during the playoffs. Clearly, the 1.138 OPS isn’t close to sustainable, but his .362 xOBA and 22.7%/12.3% K%/BB% shows he was legitimately good. In fact, a .323 xwOBA is the lowest mark of his career, and that was 4 years ago. When healthy, the guy can hit. He’s not getting any younger and he’s getting a major ballpark downgrade, so optimally he is an “upside” bench bat for you. 2023 Projection: 55/18/58/.251/.342/.432/1

559) Evan Longoria ARI, 3B, 37.6 – Longoria has had a mini career resurgence over these last 2 seasons, smashing 27 homers in 170 games from 2021-22. He’s crushing the ball with a 91.1/96.7 MPH AVG/FB EV in 2022 (94.1 MPH EV in 2021), and his 12.4% Barrel% was the 2nd best mark he’s put up in the Statcast ERA (2021 was his career best at 13.4%). He’s been very injury prone, and his 27.9% K% was a career worst, so at 37 years old, it’s hard to get too excited, but there seems to be real juice left in his bat. 2023 Projection: 51/18/57/.249/.319/.450/1

560) AJ Pollock SEA, OF, 35.4 – Pollock put up a career worst .681 OPS in 138 games, which is not a great sign as he gets deeper into his mid 30’s. He still put up above average contact rates with an above average Barrel% and above average speed, so I don’t think he’s toast, but he’s not a target considering his age and ballpark downgrade. 2023 Projection: 63/16/57/.260/.316/.423/7

561) Avisail Garcia MIA, OF, 31.10 – Garcia is an early contender for “best shape of his life.” He let himself get doughy after signing a big $53 million contract last off-season and it resulted in a .582 OPS in 98 games. He’s been very inconsistent in his career and this is not the first year we’ve heard the best shape of his life storyline with him. He can’t be much worse than he was last year, but I’m not buying in as anything but a bench piece. 2023 Projection: 64/18/69/.248/.306/.421/6

562) Dominic Smith WAS, 1B, 27.9 – Smith had a horrific 2022 with a .560 OPS and .293 xwOBA in 58 games. He played much of the year at Triple-A, and he at least played well there with a 122 wRC+ in 54 games. He’s a line drive hitter with an average plate approach and above average EV at peak, so the upside isn’t huge even with a bounce back. 2023 Projection: 48/14/53/.240/.310/.409/1

563) Trayce Thompson LAD, OF, 32.0 – Thompson is a true career journeyman, and while he’s currently penciled in as LA’s starting CF, I would be hesitant to expect a full time job. He has big power with a 92.2 MPH EV, but it comes with big strikeouts with a 36.5% K%. He had a .374 BABIP in 2022 which fueled a .256 BA, but I don’t think you can count on a repeat of that. A very low average power bat is what you are buying, and there is playing time risk too. 2023 Projection: 48/17/52/.234/.317/.441/5

564) Myles Straw CLE, OF, 27.5 – I stayed a bit hesitant on Straw in 2022, because I was a bit afraid the bottom was going to fall out offensively, and the bottom fell out offensively with 0 homers and a .564 OPS in 596 PA. This is why I’m also a bit lower on similar 2022 breakouts in Kwan and Hoerner, although I like Kwan and Hoerner more than I did Straw. He’s still penciled in as the starting CF, and he’ll undoubtably rack up steals, but he won’t hold that job for long if he struggles this bad again. 2023 Projection: 61/3/35/.244/.316/.40/24

565) Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 24.10 – Thompson showed his elite speed in all it’s glory in his MLB debut with 18 steals and a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed that was bested only by Corbin Carroll. His .203 xwOBA in 181 PA is scary bad, and he has major plate approach issues with a 30.9%/3.9% K%/BB%. He hits it weakly, he swings and misses a ton, and he doesn’t walk. Not the best combo there. There is playing time to be won in Texas’ OF, but he has plenty of young competition for those spots as well. He’s a late round speed flier with upside. 2023 Projection: 41/6/29/.234/.290/.361/22

566) Jesus Aguilar OAK, 1B, 32.9 – Aguilar found a full time job with Oakland. He bottomed out in 2022 with a .661 OPS and .298 xwOBA in 129 games. Both his plate approach and power tanked. He’s a low upside option even if he does bounce back. 2023 Projection: 46/15/58/.242/.303/.413/1

567) Enrique Hernandez BOS, OF, 31.7 – A right hip flexor limited Hernandez to 93 games, and they weren’t a good 93 games with a .629 OPS. His underlying numbers weren’t far off from career norms, so I would expect a bounce back, but he’s also a career .732 OPS hitter, so the bounce back isn’t going to be all that great. 2023 Projection: 61/15/54/.245/.318/.412/2

568) Christian Bethancourt TBR, C/1B, 31.7 – Bethancourt is a late career breakout with an intriguing power/speed combo, but has a terrible plate approach and major hit tool issues. He crushed the ball with a 90.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV and has above average speed with a 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to 11 homers and 5 steals in 100 games. His 24% K% and .252 BA is actually pretty good, but his 34.7% whiff% and 3.6% BB% are terrible. If you swing a ton you can whiff a ton too and still not have the highest K%, but that will lead to an extremely volatile profile. I don’t mind him as a later round upside flier, but you need to have a back up plan to make sure you aren’t left without a catcher if things don’t go well. 2023 Projection: 44/15/51/.234/.290/.405/6

569) Eric Brown MIL, SS, 22.3 – Selected 27th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Brown is a good athlete (12 steals in 57 games) with an elite plate approach (28/39 K/BB) and some pop (7 homers), but it didn’t come against the strongest competition (Coastal Carolina). He proved he wasn’t a product of inferior competition when he got to pro ball though, slashing .268/.385/.454 with 3 homers, 19 steals, and a 21/15 K/BB in 27 games at mostly Single-A. He has that classic solid across the board profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/17/71/.265/.337/.418/17

570) Jose Quintana NYM, LHP, 34.2 – Quintana had a tremendous, everything goes right type season in 2022 with a pitching line of 2.93/1.21/137/47 in 165.2 IP. He put up a career best 86.5 EV against which drove the success. His 3.86 xERA shows he got considerably lucky, and there is nothing in the underlying numbers which says this is for real. He can certainly be a solid arm, but don’t expect a repeat of 2022, and things have already started to go wrong with him suffering a stress fracture in his rib. There is no timetable for his return at this moment 2023 Projection: 4/3.89/1.28/58 in 70 IP Update: Underwent rib surgery and is expected to be out until July

571) Matthew Lugo BOS, 3B/SS, 21.11 – Lugo’s power exploded in 2022, going from 4 homers in 105 games at Single-A in 2021 to 18 homers in 114 games at High-A in 2022. He did so without his hit tool or speed taking a step back, maintaining a strong .288 BA and 19.5% K% along with 20 steals. He might not have a standout tool, but he’s shaping up to be a solid across the board contributor. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.330/.445/11

572) Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Barber has a smooth and easy slightly upper cut lefty swing that is easy to fall in love with, and he combines that with an excellent plate approach and above average speed. He slashed .298/.408/.450 with 7 homers, 7 steals, and a 21.9%/11.5% K%/BB% in 63 games at High-A. It was good for a 140 wRC+. He’s not a huge raw power guy and he’s not a great base stealer, so he could end up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but Barber’s swing, all around tools, and 2022 production makes him on of the more underrated prospects in the minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/22/79/.273/.342/.455/9

573) Gunnar Hoglund OAK, RHP, 23.4 – Hoglund returned from Tommy John surgery in late July to make his pro debut and pitched all of 8 innings before being shut down with a biceps issue. He didn’t give up a single run in those outings and put up an 8/1 K/BB, which is true to his plus control profile. I’m sure Oakland was acting out of an abundance of caution and there was no reason to try to rush him back. I haven’t seen an update on his injury, but no news is good news. When healthy, he uses an easy, rhythmic delivery that produces high spin rates and plus control/command over a 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). All of his pitches have the potential to be above average and play up because of his command. It’s an easy profile to fall in love with, but obviously the Tommy John surgery and subsequent setback is not easily ignored. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.86/1.19/163 in 160 IP

574) Jacob Melton HOU, OF, 22.7 – Selected 64th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 208 pound Melton has a slightly odd lefty swing where it looks like he’s hitting a slice shot in tennis. That backspin must be helping though because he destroyed the Big12, slashing .360/.424/.671 with 17 homers, 21 steals, and a 51/26 K/BB in 63 games. He then stepped into pro ball and destroyed Single-A with a 172 wRC+ in 19 games. There is definitely hit tool risk, but the power/speed combo could be special. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.248/.319/.444/14

575) Ryan Clifford HOU, OF, 19.9 – Clifford was selected 343rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, but he signed a $1,256,530 signing bonus which shows you the level of talent we are dealing with. He’s 6’3”, 200 pounds with an athletic and power lefty swing that has monster potential written all over it. He used that swing to put up a 145 wRC+ in 13 games at rookie ball and a 133 wRC+ in 12 games at Single-A in his pro debut. He had a barely over 30% GB% at each level, again foreshadowing huge potential. His 30.1% K% shows the rawness in his game, but some of that was the result of his extreme patience (21.8% BB%). There’s risk, but Clifford truly has the potential to be one of the premier power hitting prospects not too far into the future. He’s a major FYPD target. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/25/84/.244/.329/.460/6

576) Peyton Graham DET, SS, 22.2 – Selected 51st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Graham is still projectable at a skinny 6’3”, and he has legit power as is with 20 homers in 67 games in the Big12. The swing is athletic, and he has some speed with good stolen base skills, going 34 for 36 on the bases. He does have some swing and miss in his game, but I really like the swing, projectability, and production. His pro debut didn’t really move the needle in either direction with a 108 wRC+ in 27 games at Single-A, although a 25.7% K% is maybe a little higher than you would like to see. He’s a definite target of mine, and considering how late he got drafted, he should come at a good value. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.326/.443/16

577) Jordan Beck COL, OF, 21.11 – Selected 38th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Beck is a high risk, high reward college hitter with a dangerous powerhouse righty swing at 6’3”, 225 pounds. He jacked 33 homers over 133 games in his last 2 years in the SEC, but it comes with a high K rate and hit tool concerns. His pro debut was very encouraging, showing an advanced plate approach with an 18.3%/19.3% K%/BB% to go along with 3 homers and a .909 OPS in 26 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He’s an excellent later round FYPD pick with fantasy friendly upside, especially at Coors. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/25/79/.248/.319/.451/8

578) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 21.8 – Selected 33rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Beavers is tooled up with big power numbers in the Pac12, jacking out 35 homers in 111 games over the past 2 seasons. The lefty swing is kinda abrupt and choppy, definitely not a sweet swinging lefty, and it gives him some legitimate hit tool risk that could tank the whole profile, although he didn’t have much trouble hitting for average in his pro debug with a .322 BA in 23 split between rookie, Single-A, and High-A. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.244/.326/.448/9

579) Patrick Wisdom CHC, 3B, 31.7 – Wisdom has too much hit tool and playing time risk to rank him higher than this. He was able to bring his K% down 6.5 percentage points from 2021, but it still sat at 34.3% and he put up a .207 BA and .188 xBA. He had a negative 10.8 defensive value, so his defense won’t force the issue to get him on the field either with a brewing playing time logjam in Chicago. The power is legit with a 97.7 MPH FB/LD EV and 21 degree launch which led to 25 homers in 534 PA, so that alone should keep him relevant in fantasy, but I would be careful. 2023 Projection: 54/21/59/.215/.302/.448/5

580) Keston Hiura MIL, 1B/2B, 26.8 – Hiura didn’t have the bounce back we were hoping for, but he did bounce back with a slightly above average .317 xwOBA, It was good enough to earn a part time role in 2022 with 266 PA, and as of now, the DH role is wide open for the taking. The problem is that his 41.7% K% and 40.1% whiff% is well beyond the danger zone. He’s almost guaranteed to tank your BA. His .226 BA was actually lucky as he had a .205 xBA. The power is very legit with a 91.7/96.8 MPH AVG/FB EV, leading to 14 homers in those limited at bats. He could easily smack 30 bombs if given the playing time, but you can’t count on full time playing time. 2023 Projection: 56/21/54/.221/.311/.442/7

581) J.D. Davis SFG, 1B/3B, 29.11 – Davis only got 18 games at 1B in 2022, so check your league eligibility (I use 20 games as the cut off, but he should gain 1B eligibility not far into the season, so I’m making an exception in this case). SF was giving Davis tons of run at 1B after getting traded there by the end of the season, and he hit damn well with a .857 OPS and 8 homers in his final 49 games. He smashed the ball with a 92.4/98.5 MPH AVG/FB EV. Anybody who hits the ball that hard deserves at least a flier for your fantasy team. He’s a strikeout machine with a 33.4% K% and 37.4% whiff%, but his 12.3 degree launch kept the BA in check with a .248 BA (.245 xBA). There is playing time and BA risk, but the power is massive enough to keep him on the radar. 2023 Projection: 63/18/61/.238/.324/.437/1

582) Dan Vogelbach NYM, 1B, 30.3 – Vogey is a strong side of a platoon power bat who could be an asset in an OBP league. He put up a .360 OBP with a 15.8% BB% in 469 PA. He has a career .218 BA, but a 24.7% K% and 15.8 degree launch really isn’t that horrific, and he did hit .255 in 55 games with the Mets. In a daily lineup league, he’s a very interesting bench bat to use vs. righties. 2023 Projection: 55/19/62/.237/.356/.435/0

583) Darick Hall PHI, 1B, 27.8 – Harper’s injury opens the door for Hall to make his mark in the 1st half of the season. He showed monster power in his MLB debut with 9 homers and a 91.4/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 142 PA, but it came with a horrific 31%/3.5% K%/BB%. His plate approach wasn’t nearly that bad throughout his minor league career, so I think there is room for improvement there, and the power is without question. 2023 Projection: 43/19/51/.236/.308/.466/2

584) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B, 23.10 – Gonzales finally played in a ballpark that wasn’t an extreme hitter’s environment, and his numbers looked mighty pedestrian, slashing .263/.383/.429 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 28.5%/13.6% K%/BB% in 71 games. The strikeout rate is concerning, especially because he doesn’t have nearly the power or speed to make up for it. His high draft selection (7th overall) and former prospect hype is buoying his value right now, because a cold sober look at his 2022 is severely lacking in fantasy upside. 2023 Projection: 24/6/21/.242/.308/.401/4 Prime Projection: 76/22/71/.268/.336/.436/10

585) Cade Cavalli WAS, RHP, 24.8 – Cavalli’s had an up and down pro career. He dominated Double-A in 2021 before closing out the season getting dominated at Triple-A. His start to 2022 was a disaster with a 7.62 ERA in 28.1 at Triple-A before turning it around with a 2.10 ERA and 77/25 K/BB in 68.2 IP, but then it all concluded with him giving up 7 earned in 4.1 IP in his MLB debut, getting shutdown right afterward with a non serious shoulder injury. He’s had control problems going back to his college days, which could explain the inconsistency. What isn’t inconsistent though is the the big time stuff with a 95.6 MPH fastball and 3 quality secondaries in his curve, changeup, and slider. Pitching development is notoriously non linear, and Cavalli has the stuff and size (6’4”, 240 pounds) to really explode if his control/command can take a step forward. 2023 Projection: OUT Prime Projection: 12/3.81/1.30/180 in 175 IP Update: Cavalli felt elbow pain in his last start and will undergo Tommy John surgery which will keep him out for all of 2023. This is just another day in the life of a pitching prospect

586) David Villar SFG, 3B/1B, 26.2 – Villar had a strong MLB debut with a .787 OPS and 9 homers in 181 PA, but his underlying numbers looked much worse with a below average 86.8 MPH EV, terrible 32% K%, and .285 xwOBA. He’s been a low average power hitter who has done nothing but rake his entire career, but his poor defense, advanced age, and weak MLB EV numbers create a ton of risk. He currently has the 3B job, but I think Casey Schmitt is going to take it from him sooner than later. 2023 Projection: 47/16/51/.223/.310/.429/3

587) Orlando Arcia ATL, 2B, 28.8 – Atlanta isn’t comfortable with Grissom’s defense and they are going to roll with Arcia, at least to begin the year. He had the best year of his career in 2022 with a career best 104 wRC+, 9% BB%, 90.7 MPH EV, and 11.7 degree launch. Combine all that with average-ish K-rates, and that makes for a decently interesting player. 2023 Projection: 45/14/52/.250/.319/.420/2

588) Matt Vierling DET, OF, 26.6 – Vierling didn’t hit that well in 2022 with a .648 OPS, but his underlying numbers remain mighty enticing. He smashes the ball with a 91.2 MPH EV, he’s fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint, and he makes contact with a 19.6% K%. Detroit obviously likes what they saw, trading their closer for him. He’ll compete with Akil Baddoo for a starting job this spring. 2023 Projection: 58/10/51/.265/.317/.408/13

589) Izaac Pacheco DET, SS, 20.4 – Pacheco is one of my favorite underrated prospects in the minors. I traded for him at the deadline in my 18 team league as a consolation prize after botching the Trevor Story on a expiring contract negotiations. Basically, Story got hurt while I was haggling over adding 1 year of Max Kepler into the deal, and I ended up missing out on grabbing Noelvi Marte because of it. I had to settle for Pacheco and a pick one month later while Story was still hurt. I guess the lesson here is to never look a gift horse in the mouth (I don’t have the slightest clue what this means, but it sounds good). Back to Pacheco. He’s 6’4”, 225 pounds with a beautiful lefty swing reminiscent of many beautiful lefty swings from big lefties throughout MLB history. He hit only 11 homers in 106 games split between Single-A and High-A, but he doesn’t have any groundball issues and I have no doubts about the power. What got me so excited was the major contact gains he made from 2021. He had an excellent 21.8%/10.6% K%/BB% after putting up a 34.4% K% in 20 games in rookie ball in 2021. He’s also a good athlete as evidenced by his 12 steals in 12 attempts. He should come very cheap this off-season. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/27/85/.257/.334/.466/6

590) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke had a worst case scenario 2022. He hit .231 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 25.2% K% in 80 games at High-A. He battled through injuries which definitely contributed to how bad it was, but the power/speed combo isn’t very big, which puts a lot of pressure on his hit tool. He struck out 22.9% of the time at High-A last year too. He’s off to a hot start in the AFL (.368 BA with a 3/5 K/BB in 5 games), and I definitely think he will have a much better 2023, but he lacks high end upside which prevents me from going any higher on him than this. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/70/.276/.338/.435/10

591) Cristian Santana DET, SS/2B, 19.4 – Detroit was super aggressive with Santana, skipping him right over stateside rookie ball and debuting in full season ball as an 18 year old. He understandably struggled in his first 37 games at the level with a .179 BA, but he got comfortable when the calendar turned to July, slashing .245/.412/.429 with 6 homers and a 23.1%/15.6% K%/BB% in his final 45 games. It resulted in a 123 wRC+ in 80 games at Single-A, which is super impressive for an 18 year old. He’s a good athlete, playing up the middle on defense and swiping 10 bags. He also keeps the ball off the ground with a 36.7% GB%. Santana certainly has the potential to explode up the rankings in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/25/81/.255/.340/.476/8

592) Gleider Figuereo TEX, 3B, 18.9 – The 18 year old Figuereo is already a pretty thick and strong 6’0”, and he has a powerful lefty swing that crushed 9 homers in 25 games at stateside rookie ball. He stole 7 bags too, and while I think he’s likely to slow down as he ages, it shows he’s a good athlete. The 22.6%/10.3% K%/BB% was good, but it’s maybe slightly on the high side and his 30.8% K% in his 6 game cameo at Single-A could foreshadow a higher K rate when he goes against more advanced pitching. Figuereo has the potential to be a truly impact bat. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/27/88/.255/.331/.475/8

593) Danyer Cueva TEX, SS, 18.10 – Cueva is 6’1” with a vicious lefty swing that has offensive potential written all over it. He handled his business in stateside rookie ball, slashing .330/.376/.483 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 21.2%/5.3% K%/BB% in 44 games. There is still plenty of refinement needed, but you are buying that nasty lefty swing from a projectable frame and hoping the rest works itself out. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/83/.266/.325/.456/5

594) Oswaldo Osorio LAD, SS/3B, 18.0 – Osorio was a DSL standout, slashing .239/.428/.471 with 6 homers, 11 steals, and a 23.5%/20.9% K%/BB% in 44 games. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He has a mature plate approach, hits the ball hard, and has speed, although a 23.5% K% is a bit higher than you would like to see in the DSL. He’s the type that could explode to elite prospect status if everything goes well stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 75/23/79/.251/.335/.448/10

595) Cristhian Vaquero WAS, OF, 18.7 – The hyped up, uber talented Vaquero didn’t go full breakout in his 44 game pro debut in the DSL, but he held his own with a 104 wRC+, 17 steals, and a 17.6%/15.3% K%/BB%. Power was the only thing missing with only 1 homer, but establishing a strong plate approach is more important at this point in his development. The power will uptick naturally as he adds muscle to his 6’3”, 180 pound frame. I was fading Vaquero a bit last off-season, but his non spectacular season could have him falling into a price range I’m more comfortable with this off-season. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.262/.337/.454/14

596) Jaison Chourio CLE, OF, 17.10 – Big bro Jackson just exploded up the rankings in 2022, and little bro Jaison is primed to do the same in 2023. He was a DSL standout, slashing .280/.446/.402 with 1 homer, 14 steals, and a 12.6%/22.9% K%/BB% in 40 games. He’s a switch hitter who is much better from the left side, and while he probably doesn’t have quite his brother’s power potential, there is certainly more raw power coming at a lean 6’1”. Here he is cracking a homer at instructs in October which drew very loud “ooooohhhhs and aaaahhhhs” from the on lookers. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 84/18/71/.273/.344/.432/16

597) Ben Joyce LAA, RHP (Closer), 22.7 – I don’t normally like relief pitching prospects, preferring to find my relief pitchers from the never ending supply of pop up MLB guys, but LA’s bullpen is wide open at the moment, and Joyce is damn exciting. He was selected 89th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft on the back of his 100+ MPH fastball and plus slider from a funky righty arm angle. It’s basically the elite closer recipe. He debuted at Double-A and immediately dominated with a 2.08 ERA and 35.1%/7.0% K%/BB% in 13 IP. He has a chance to be LA’s closer not far into 2023, and maybe even on opening day. 2023 Projection: 3/3.72/1.23/59/15 saves in 50 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.34/1.13/80/30 saves in 60 IP

598) Casey Schmitt SFG, 3B/SS, 23.5 – Schmitt’s power took a big step forward in 2022, smacking 21 homers in 126 games split between High-A (93 games), Double-A (29 games), and Triple-A (4 games). He never showed this level of game power going back to college, but the raw power was always in there at 6’2”, 215 pounds. He did most of his damage at High-A with a 132 wRC+, and while he had a 144 wRC+ at Double-A, a lot of that was the result of good luck (.432 BABIP) as his power dropped off and so did his walk rate. He strikes me as more of a good real life hitter than fantasy hitter, especially in San Francisco. He’s been especially impressive this spring, and it looks like he might take over the Giants 3B job before the year is out 2023 Projection: 27/6/31/.247/.308/.410/2 Prime Projection: 73/21/81/.264/.325/.437/4

599) Jason Adam TBR, Closer Committee, 31.8 – Adam will be right in the mix with Fairbanks for saves. He was straight elite in 2022 with a 1.56 ERA and 31.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 63.1 IP. He reduced his fastball usage and improved his control which led to the breakout season. He’s not a flamethrower by modern day standards with a 94.8 MPH fastball, but it plays with an excellent .210 xwOBA, and he goes to his plus slider and changeup more than the fastball. 2023 Projection: 4/3.09/1.06/77/15 saves in 65 IP

600) Kyle Finnegan WAS, Closer Committee, 31.7 – Finnegan pitched well in all 3 years of his MLB career (3.43 ERA in 157.1 IP) and he hit another level in 2022 with a career best 26.1% K% and 8.2% BB%. He throws gas with a 97 MPH sinker, his slider put up a 41% whiff% and his splitter put up an above average .261 xwOBA. Washington’s bad team might limit his save opportunities, and he’ll always be a trade candidate, but beggars can’t be choosers when you’re shopping in the discount aisle. 2023 Projection: 4/3.45/1.20/71/22 saves in 65 IP

601) Craig Kimbrel PHI, Closer Committee, 34.10 – If Kimbrel is right, his name value and track record should lock down the closer job for Philly, but there is no guarantee he will be right. He was terrible in 2019 and 2020, inconsistent in 2021, and just mediocre in 2022 with a 3.75 ERA and a career low by far 27.7 K%. The stuff is still big with a 95.8 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a 43.6% whiff%, but it’s not as big as it used to be. He used to throw 98+ MPH and his slider used to put up a 55% whiff%. He’s never been a plus control guy, so he doesn’t have that pitchability to fall back on as the stuff drops off. He’s pretty clearly in a decline phase, but the skills are there to still be a good reliever, and even if he’s not the best pen arm Philly has, I think he’ll get the job if he is acceptable enough. 2023 Projection: 4/3.51/1.22/80/20 saves in 63 IP

602) Trevor May OAK, Closer, 33.6 – It seems May is the favorite for the Oakland closer job after signing for $7 million, but if he pitches well, he’ll likely be traded by the deadline. He struggled in 2022 with a 5.04 ERA in 25 IP. He also battled a triceps injury that kept him out for a few months. The underlying numbers were in line with career norms though with a 3.64 xERA and a 27%/7.1% K%/BB%. He still threw gas with a 96.1 MPH fastball and his 3 secondaries were all above average to plus. He should be solid at the least. 2023 Projection: 4/3.62/1.24/79/20 saves in 63 IP

603) Seranthony Dominguez PHI, Closer Committee, 28.4 – If Kimbrel can’t lock down the job in Spring, Dominguez could be the favorite to get the first shot at it. His slider is elite with a 57.1% whiff% and he combines that with 2 upper 90’s fastballs in his 97.6 MPH 4-seamer and 98.2 MPH sinker. It was good for a 3.00 ERA and 61/22 K/BB in 51 IP, which doesn’t exactly jump off the screen, but he’s capable of topping that. 2023 Projection: 4/3.15/1.12/71/10 saves in 55 IP

604) Brusdar Graterol LAD, Closer Committee, 24.7 – Graterol isn’t a huge strikeout guy with a 21.8% K%, but that’s because he doesn’t have to be. He’s a weak contact, groundball machine with a 85.5 MPH EV against and negative 0.7 degree launch. He does it with a 99.7 MPH sinker and 95.6 MPH cutter. He also has a plus slider which would boost his K% if he went to it more. His 2.47 xERA looked better than his 3.26 ERA, but fewer K’s mean more chances to be unlucky, and with the new shift rules, he might decide to try to miss bats more. The rumor mill also seems to be turning his way as the favorite for the closer job. 2023 Projection: 4/3.17/1.02/65/18 saves in 65 IP

605) Jorge Lopez MIN, Closer Committee, 30.1 – Lopez got traded to Minnesota and immediately imploded with a 4.37 ERA and 18/14 K/BB in 22.2 IP. He had a 1.68 ERA with a 54/17 K/BB in 48.1 IP in Baltimore. With Jhoan Duran in town, there is absolutely zero leash, and I would be weary to truly count on him as the full time closer. He was a starter for a large percentage of his career, so he doesn’t have this long track record as a successful reliever to fall back on. His 24.2%/10.4% K%/BB% on the season isn’t really all that good. The stuff is there to get back on track with a 97.7 MPH fastball and 3 good secondaries, but I would value him as a part time closer with risk he completely loses any share of the job. 2023 Projection: 4/3.54/1.23/70/15 saves in 65 IP

606) Domingo German NYY, RHP, 30.8 – German will open the season in the rotation with the injuries to Rodon and Montas, but he could be the first one out when one of them is ready to return. Both his velocity (92.7 MPH fastball) and strikeouts (19.5% K%) were down, but he still pitched well with a plus control profile (3.61 ERA with a 6.4% BB%). He can be serviceable while he has a rotation spot. 2023 Projection: 6/3.83/1.21/101 in 110 IP

607) Evan Phillips LAD, Closer Committee, 28.7 – Phillips went full breakout with an improved slider and improved control. He put up a 1.14 ERA with a 33%/6.4% K%/BB% in 63 IP. Considering this was by far the best year of his career, I’m not sure LA will want to immediately thrust him into the undisputed closer role, but who knows. 2023 Projection: 4/3.02/1.03/78/10 saves in 65 IP

608) Brandon Hughes CHC, Closer Committee, 27.4 – Hughes slider put up elite level whiffs with a 49.1% whiff% and it led to a 3.12 ERA with 68 K’s in 57.2 IP in his rookie year. He was untouchable in the minors with a 1.96 ERA and 124/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP from 2021-22). His 9.2% BB% isn’t great, and he’s not a flame thrower with a 93.2 MPH fastball, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience pitching, which leads me to believe there could be more room to grow than a typical 27 year old. Considering he’s their best lefty in the bullpen, he might be on the short side of this closer committee. 2023 Projection: 4/3.52/1.17/77/15 saves in 63 IP

609) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 23.10 – Hancock was art of pitching his way through Double-A with a 2.19 ERA and 64/21 K/BB in his first 70 IP, but the lack strikeouts caught up with him in the end with a 7.62 ERA and 28/17 K/BB in his final 28.1 IP. His 3.75 ERA was still solid overall, but the 22.3%/9.2% K%/BB% and 5.43 xFIP doesn’t look as good. He has the pedigree as the former 6th overall pick in the draft, and he looks the part when you watch him with 3 electric pitches (mid 90’s heat, change, slider), but the numbers say back end starter. I’ll split the difference and put a #4 starter tag on him. 2023 Projection: 2/4.42/1.38/56 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.27/158 in 170 IP

610) Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 28.7 – Out of all of Baltimore’s fringy starting pitchers, Wells is my favorite. He’s 6’8”, 255 pounds with near elite control (6.6% BB%) and an above average whiff rate (25.1% whiff%). He throws a high spin 93.5 fastball to go along with 3 secondaries that all put up well above average xwOBA’s (slider-.283/change-.219/curve-.185). It all led to a 3.78 xERA (4.25 ERA) and a 1.14 WHIP in 103.2 IP. He has some injury risk as an oblique strain held him out for all of August, and then his season ended in September due to shoulder inflammation. He also seems to be on the outside looking in for a rotation spot. 2023 Projection: 6/3.95/1.18/191 in 100 IP

611) Ty Madden DET, RHP, 23.1 – Detroit is on their way to building a killer rotation, and most of their top pitching prospects get underhype. Madden quietly put together an excellent season with a pitching line of 3.01/1.10/133/38 in 122.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He used to have an over the top delivery, but Detroit shortened it up this year which helps add spin and movement. It also helps it play up in the zone. He combines the improved fastball with a potentially plus slider as his most used secondary. The curve and change can also be quality pitches, and he added a cutter to the mix as well. It’s a mid rotation profile. 2023 Projection: Prime Projection: 10/3.90/1.25/170 in 170 IP

612) Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 23.7 – Brown is 6’6”, 210 pounds with good control over a mid 90’s heat and 2 potentially plus secondaries in his curve and slider. It racked up K’s in the minors with a 3.38 ERA and 149/36 K/BB in 104 IP split between High-A and Double-A (4.06 ERA at Double-A). The delivery isn’t particularly athletic, the change isn’t very good, and he’s had injury issues in the past, so there is definitely bullpen risk, but the upside is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 8/3.87/1.26/151 in 140 IP

613) Bryan Woo SEA, RHP, 23.2 – Woo returned from Tommy John surgery in June and immediately showed the big stuff is back with a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and a changeup that flashes plus. He was a strikeout machine in the lower minors with a 85/22 K/BB (4.11 ERA) in 57 IP spread across 3 levels (rookie, A, A+). He’s now destroying the AFL with a 0.84 ERA and 16/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP. I generally discount AFL performance, but one of the exceptions is from a pitcher who was out for most of the season. You can’t fake big time stuff, and Woo certainly has big time stuff. This off-season is definitely the time to get in on Woo before his value explodes in 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.32/161 in 155 IP

614) Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 24.7 – Toglia has big power with big hit tool issues. He jacked 30 homers in 114 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but it came with a .249 BA and 30.1% K%. He got called up to the bigs and hit .216 with a 36.7% K% in 31 games. He only hit 2 homers with a 89.6 MPH FB/LD EV, but he’s 6’5”, 226 pounds with a 17 degree launch angle, so the power isn’t really a question. He’s also a good athlete (28.3 ft/sec sprint speed) who is an excellent defender at 1B and could play some OF too. I might be hesitant to go after him in 5×5 BA leagues, but in other setups he has a very fantasy friendly profile. 2023 Projection: 27/7/29/.220/.296/.418/2 Prime Projection: 72/26/78/.235/.316/.440/7

615) Ji-Hwan Bae PIT, 2B/SS/OF, 23.8 – Pitt’s 2B job is wide open for the taking, and Bae makes for a very interesting fantasy option if he can win it. He has plus speed, with a plus hit tool tool and some pop. He slashed .289/.362/.430 with 8 homers, 30 steals, and a 16.9%/10.15 K%/BB% in 108 games at Triple-A, and then he made his MLB debut in September and proved the skills will translate. He slashed .333/.405/.424 with 0 homers, 3 steals, and a 16.2%/5.4% K%/BB% in 10 games. His 83.2 MPH EV and zero barrels concerns me, and his .272 xwOBA shows he got lucky. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he could be a cheap source of steals on a team that needs all the young offensive talent they can get. 2023 Projection: 39/5/31/.260/.319/.389/11 Prime Projection: 74/14/57/.277/.334/.413/24

616) Dax Fulton MIA, LHP, 21.6 – Fulton makes for an extremely uncomfortable at bat at 6’7”, 225 pounds with a bit of a herky jerky lefty delivery. He ran into some bad BABIP luck at High-A with a 4.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 97.1 IP, but his 28.4%/8.3% K%/BB% and and 3.31 xFIP shows his true talent level. He then went to Double-A and crushed it with a 2.57 ERA and 30/7 K/BB in 21 IP. He’s a groundball pitcher with a heavy, low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with a potentially plus breaker and change. It’s a #4 starter profile with upside for more if his fastball ticks up. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.31/172 in 170 IP

617) Ji-Man Choi PIT, 1B, 31.11 – Choi put up a 92.2 MPH EV in 2022, which is in the top 7% of the league. but he did it by bringing his launch angle down to 10.6 degrees, resulting in only 11 homers in 419 PA. It didn’t help his BA either (.233 BA). He’s a walk machine with a .345 career OBP, and he actually hit solidly against lefties in 2022 with a .723 OPS, but he’s been bad vs. them in his career. The trade to Pitt might give him a full time job, at least early in the season, and he’s been an above average hitter in his career. Not the worst guy to have on your bench or as a cheap option in deep leagues. 2023 Projection: 59/16/66/.238/.342/.422/0

618) Cole Irvin BAL, LHP, 29.2 – Irvin is a low upside (17.3% K% with a 90.7 MPH fastball), plus control guy (4.9% BB%). Not the worst guy to have in the back of your fantasy rotation, but he’s not likely to move the needle. 2023 Projection: 10/4.28/1.28/123 in 170 IP

619) Hyun Jin Ryu TOR, LHP, 36.0 –  Ryu is out with Tommy John surgery until around mid-season. He’s a plus control pitcher with low 90’s heat whose strikeout numbers have been on the decline. It seems likely he’ll be a back end starter as he gets into his late 30’s. 2023 Projection: 2/4.22/1.28/26 in 30 IP

620) Eddie Rosario ATL, OF, 31.6 – Rosario had an eye injury required laser surgery to treat, and he was obviously not right in 2022. He put up a .587 OPS in 80 games. He seems to still have a starting role open for him, or at least a strong side of a platoon role, but your guess is as good as mine as to if he will be healthy. He’s a high risk option and the upside isn’t all that high at this point in his career. 2023 Projection: 41/13/44/.243/.298/.420/6

621) Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 25.9 – Marlowe is in that Joey Wiemer class of prospect. He’s an older prospect with a plus power/speed combo and major hit tool issues. He slashed .287/.377/.487 with 23 homers, 42 steals, and a 27.0%/10.7% K%/BB% in 133 games at mostly Double-A. He made it to Triple-A for 13 games and his K% spiked to 38.3%, which isn’t a great sign. He’s older than Wiemer and the power/speed combo isn’t as big as Wiemer, but these types of prospects give you legitimate upside without having to draft a teenager who is likely at least 3-4 years away. I doubt Seattle will just hand him a starting job, so he will have to scratch and claw for playing time with a very short leash when he does get his shot. He also hits righties significantly better than lefties, so a platoon role is in play. 2023 Projection: 19/5/20/.221/.290/.398/6 Prime Projection: 51/16/60/.236/.316/.431/12

622) Jordan Diaz OAK, 1B/2B, 22.8 – Diaz has a plus hit tool with elite contact rates, notching a .326 BA and 14.4% K% in 120 games in the upper minors. He had a 13.7% K% with a .265 BA in his 15 game MLB debut. That is just about all he has going for him though. He has very low walk rates (5.3% BB%), over 50% groundball rates, no speed, and is a poor defensive player. Getting the bat on the ball to go along with Oakland’s depleted roster makes him relatively safe, but he’s pretty devoid of upside. 2023 Projection: 45/10/48/.268/.307/.411/1 Prime Projection: 69/18/75/.283/.328/.436/2

623) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11 – Chaparro displayed an impressive hit/power combo at Double-A, smashing 19 homers with a 19.9%/9.2% K%/BB% in just 64 games. Steamer loves him, already giving him a 121 wRC+ projection for 2023. He’s a thick 6’1” and hits the ball very hard, so the power is most certainly for real, and he’s always shown a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career. He was a bit older for the level than you want to see, and he doesn’t have that long and lean build that screams upside, but nothing he did looks like a fluke. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/24/79/.262/.325/.454/2

624) Josh Lowe TBR, OF, 25.2 – Lowe struggled hard in his de facto MLB debut with only 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 33.3% K% in 198 PA. He performed well at Triple-A with a 151 wRC+, but his K% hit a career worst 32.8% after it sat at 26.2% in 2021. His hit tool always had the possibility of tanking his profile, and that came to fruition in 2022. Tampa’s depth does not give much room for struggles, and he now seems to be buried on the depth chart. The plus power/speed combo and excellent athleticism are still present, and you have to give prospects the chance to develop at the MLB level, but he’ll have to wait his turn for another shot. 2023 Projection: 29/7/25/.227/.300/.400/7 Prime Projection: 65/16/59/.236/.314/.430/13

625) Vaun Brown SFG, OF, 24.9 – Brown is your classic lower minors, old for the level standout. His numbers are off the charts, slashing .346/.437/.623 with 23 homers, 44 steals, and a 26%/10.3% K%/BB% in 103 split between Single-A and High-A, dominating each league equally. He played 1 game at Double-A and went 0 for 2. He played 5 years in the weak SSC conference in college, and he didn’t breakout until his 4th year, so he’s always been an old for the level, inferior competition type guy. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his already weak-ish K% skyrocket when he finally faces advanced pitchers. He also has an unorthodox batting stance where he keeps his hands low and almost looks like he is lurching. It doesn’t look all that smooth, but plenty of guys have thrived with an unorthodox stance. What isn’t in doubt is his power/speed combo as he’s an excellent athlete and he hits the ball hard. If the K rate doesn’t get too far out of control, the homers and steals will be there. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.240/.312/.434/18

626) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 23.5 – Meadows was a former favorite of mine who I moved off after he struggled for a couple years in full season ball, but he had his breakout in 2022. He slashed .270/.346/.473 with 20 homers, 17 steals, and a 19.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 113 games at mostly Double-A. He has the bloodlines (Austin is his brother), he looks the part (6’5”, 205) and now the production is there too. I’m not going too crazy for him, but I’m definitely getting back in. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/23/78/.247/.318/.435/13

627) Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 23.2 – You have to be a little concerned that Atlanta was willing to deal Malloy for Joe Jimenez. They have been excellent at knowing which prospects to keep and which to trade. Malloy is 6’3”, 212 pounds with a bit of an awkward righty swing that has a lot of movement. It didn’t stop him from decimating 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), slashing .289/.408/.454 with 17 homers and a 138/97 K/BB in 133 games. He hits the ball hard with a mostly line drive approach and huge walk rates. The Tigers below average ballpark for righties will not help his fantasy upside, but there is playing time to be won with their depleted roster. I wouldn’t expect huge fantasy impact in a 5×5 BA league, but he can be solid, and add a star in OBP leagues 2023 Projection: 19/4/17/.243/.322/.412/1 Prime Projection: 78/20/74/.258/.339/.442/4

628) Gabriel Martinez TOR, OF, 20.8 – The unheralded Martinez quietly had one of the most impressive hit/power combo seasons for a 19 year old. He slashed .293/.355/.477 with 14 homers and a 64/32 K/BB in 96 games at Single-A (135 wRC+) and High-A (141 wRC+). The raw tools aren’t huge at 6’0”, 170 pounds, which is the reason for the unheraldedness, but there is still plenty of room for him to tack on mass. The power should only tick up from here. It’s a potentially above average hit/power combo at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.273/.331/.445/5

629) Blade Tidwell NYM, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Tidwell throws gas with a fastball that can consistently reach the upper 90’s. He combines that with a potentially plus slider and developing changeup. He was limited to only 39 IP in the SEC due to shoulder soreness, but he pitched well in those innings with a 3.00 ERA and 51/11 K/BB. He then stepped into pro ball and proved the shoulder is just fine by dominating in the Single-A playoffs, going 9.2 IP with 5 hits, 0 ER and a 13/2 K/BB over 2 outings. He makes for a great later round FYPD target if you stack up on hitters early. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.28/165 in 160 IP

630) Shintaro Fujinami OAK, RHP, 29.0 – Oakland is an organization that has to exhaust every avenue and be very savvy to find upside on the cheap (Fuginami signed for a mere $3.25 million), and if your fantasy team is in the same position, Fujinami could be a good target for you too.  He has great size at 6’6”, 180 pounds (maybe a little too skinny), and his stuff is legitimately very filthy (mid 90’s fastball, plus splitter, and solid slider). He’s been used mostly out of the pen in a bulk innings role, but he came up as a starter and has actually thrown 199 IP in a season before (2015). He threw 107.1 IP this season in 25 appearances, so it’s not like he’s a one inning guy. There is a real chance he can be a beast in Oakland’s rotation, but there is a still a lot of bullpen risk. 2023 Projection: 7/3.98/1.32/141 in 135 IP

631) Tyler Gentry KCR, OF, 23.7 – KC’s farm system is completely stripped with how much talent graduated to the majors this year, but it does allow some under the radar guys to get some light, and Gentry is someone who definitely deserves more light. He went nuclear in 2022, slashing .326/.422/.542 with 21 homers, 10 steals, and a 21.7%/12.4% in 108 games at mostly Double-A. That is thorough across the board production everywhere you look. He’s 6’2”, 210 with a powerful and under control righty swing. KC’s OF is far from locked down, so if you’re looking for a close to the majors prospect with real upside at a very cheap price, Gentry is your guy. 2023 Projection: 38/9/41/.242/.314/.418/4 Prime Projection: 73/21/78/.257/.328/.446/8

632) Maikel Garcia KCR, SS, 23.1 – Garcia’s power popped a little bit this year, going from basically nothing to merely below average with 11 homers in 118 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He combines that with a mature plate approach (18.4%/10.5% K%/BB%) and baserunning skills (39 steals). He got some at bats in the majors throughout the year and showed the hit tool (15.4% whiff% with a .318 BA) and speed (28.5 ft/sec sprint speed) in 23 PA could transfer to the majors. He’s a plus defensive SS, so his glove should keep him on the field. 2023 Projection: 39/6/28/.255/.308/.350/8 Prime Projection: 76/14/58/.268/.326/.374/19

633) Nick Martinez SDP, RHP, 32.8 – Martinez was used as both a starter and reliever in 2022 and pitched well with a 3.47 ERA and 95/41 K/BB in 106.1 IP. He has below average control of a solid 5 pitch mix led by a 93.4 MPH fastball. There is some mid rotation upside here, but back end is probably more likely. 2023 Projection: 8/4.02/1.28/128 in 140 IP

634) Matthew Boyd DET, LHP, 32.2 – Boyd returned in September in a bullpen role after missing the vast majority of the season recovering from flexor tendon elbow surgery. His stuff was completely back and he pitched well with a 1.35 ERA in 13.1 IP. He’s looked really good and completely healthy in the spring too. There is definitely some mid rotation upside in here. 2023 Projection: 8/4.21/1.29/131 in 140 IP

635) Drew Waters KCR, OF, 24.3 – The very talented Waters has just never been able to refine his game, which is why Atlanta finally decided to cut ties in 2022. He had his usual good but not standout year in the minors, putting up a .805 OPS with a 27.8% K% and 18 steals in 83 games in Triple-A. The Royals called him up in late August, and while the surface stats looked good with 5 homers and a .803 OPS in 109 PA, the underlying numbers looked very bad with a 36.7% K%, 84.1 MPH EV, and .293 xwOBA. His 28.4 ft/sec sprint is fast, but it’s not lightning speed. It’s a 4th outfielder profile, but KC’s roster is depleted and he could get a shot at the starting CF job. 2023 Projection: 59/12/50/.228/.299/.397/9

636) Jacob Misiorowski MIL, RHP, 21.0 – If you want to bet on just pure, uncut stuff, Misiorowski is your guy. He was selected 63rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft and was given a big $2.35 million signing bonus. He’s 6’7”, 190 pounds with a high spin upper 90’s fastball and a potentially plus low 90’s slider. He had a 3/7 K/BB with 1 ER in his 1.2 IP MLB debut, which gives you an idea of where his control is at. He’s a two pitch pitcher with control issues, which leads to extreme bullpen risk, but Milwaukee also knows a thing or two about developing elite relievers. It’s the ultimate high risk, high reward profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.33/1.14/91/33 saves in 65 IP

637) Marco Gonzales SEA, LHP, 31.1 – Gonzales is a plus control back end starter with an impressively low 13.2% K%. There is little to no upside with a 88.4 MPH fastball. 2023 Projection: 10/4.13/1.29/130 in 170 IP

638) Blake Walston ARI, LHP, 21.9 – I like to see how guys without big fastballs particularly perform against upper minors hitters before flying them up my rankings, and Walston is the perfect example of why as he struggled hard when he got to Double-A (2.55 ERA in 17.2 IP at High-A vs. 5.16 ERA in 106.1 IP at Double-A). He was much better in the 2nd half with a 2.89 ERA and 60/17 K/BB in 56 IP, and he was very young for the level, so I see it as more of a bump in the road than a major issue, but Walston’s going to have to work hard adding velocity this off-season. If he can start pumping mid 90’s heat, his 4 pitch mix from a 6’5” lefty frame gives him very high upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection:  11/3.98/1.31/182 in 175 IP

639) Ky Bush LAA, LHP, 23.5 – I liked Bush as a low key FYPD target in 2022, and he had a low key good year at Double-A with a pitching line of 3.67/1.18/101/29 in 103 IP. He’s a big 6’6”, 240 pound lefty who hides the ball well and throws a strong 4 pitch mix (mid 90’s heat, slider, curve, change). He just screams mid rotation MLB starter whenever I watch him. 2023 Projection: 2/4.38/1.35/43 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.89/1.27/161 in 170 IP

640) Trevor Larnach MIN, OF, 26.1 – Larnach’s season ended in late June after undergoing core muscle surgery. He also battled right wrist soreness early in the year and then left wrist soreness later in the year as he was trying to return from the core muscle injury. It’s hard not to have nightmares about Kirilloff when you hear wrist soreness and Minnesota in the same sentence. When healthy, Larnach hits is very hard with a line drive approach and strikeout issues. He’s not a particularly good defensive player either, although he was solid last year. It seems he will have to bide his time to get another real shot, and he’ll have almost no leash when the shot does eventually come. 2023 Projection: 44/10/40/.238/.312/.420/0

641) Vidal Brujan TBR, 2B/OF, 25.2 – Tampa just doesn’t leave any breathing room for MLB struggles, and boy oh boy did Brujan have MLB struggles. He hit .163 with a .487 OPS in 162 PA. He simply doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to do damage with a 86.1 MPH EV, and his 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed isn’t really off the charts, leading to a 50% stolen base success rate (5 for 10). There just isn’t a path to playing time and Brujan is far from forcing their hand. You have to know when to cut your losses, and it’s time with Brujan. He needs that trade to Oakland like Estuery Ruiz 🙂 2023 Projection: 28/6/24/.233/.302/.379/11

642) Yeison Morrobel TEX, OF, 19.4 – Morrobel is one of my favorite underrated prospects in the minors. He’s a projectable 6’2”, 170 pounds with an athletic lefty swing and excellent bat control. He didn’t put up eye popping power/speed numbers with 3 homers and 5 steals in 41 games in stateside rookie ball, but he slashed an excellent .329/.405/.487 with a 19.7%/9.8% K%/BB%. He made it to Single-A to close out the year and held his own with a 20.7%/10.3% K%/BB% in 8 games, although it came with a 70 wRC+. The profile reminds me a bit of where Jose Salas was last year. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/21/73/.275/.337/.446/11

643) Grant McCray SFG, OF, 22.4 – McCray is a high risk, high reward prospect with a plus power/speed combo (23 homers with 43 steals) and a high strikeout rate (29.9% K%). He did most of his damage at Single-A with a .908 OPS in 106 games, and he hit well at High-A too with a .810 OPS in 14 games, although his K% spiked to 35.5%. His high 11.8% BB% somewhat balances out the high K rates. His groundball rates are a little on the high side, and he was a bit older for the level than optimal, but there is a lot to like from a fantasy perspective especially. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/20/77/.245/.321/.426/15

644) Robert Gasser MIL, LHP, 23.10 – Ruiz got all the hype in the Hader trade, but Gasser might end up the best player in that deal when it’s all said and done, especially in terms of real life value. Gasser is a slingin’ lefty with a 3 quarters arm slot and good stuff. He has a high spin (to my eye) fastball that he can get into the mid 90’s, to go along with a potentially plus slider and an at least average changeup. While he doesn’t necessarily have pinpoint control, he generally hits his spots. It led to a 3.94 ERA with a 172/52 K/BB in 137 IP split between 3 levels (A+. AA, AAA). It’s a safe #4 starter profile with upside for more. 2023 Projection: 2/4.45/1.39/56 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/3.99/1.30/163 in 165 IP

645) Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 20.6 – Quero’s elite plate approach from rookie ball in 2021 (12%/14.5% K%/BB%) couldn’t quite transfer to full season ball (18.8%/7.4% in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A). He hit .286 with 10 homers and 10 steals. He projects for an above average hit/power combo, but with the amount of catcher talent that is about to hit the majors, and with catcher prospects not being a great target for fantasy in general, Quero isn’t someone I’m exactly going after. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/19/74/.272/.335/.438/5

646) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.5 – Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due. Ballesteros is built like a slightly taller, lefty swinging version of Alejandro Kirk, and his profile isn’t that far off from Kirk’s, except the hit tool isn’t quite on that level. He was a former high priced international signing who handled his business in 2021 in the DSL with a 128 wRC+ and 12.8%/16.6% K%/BB% in 48 games. He debuted in stateside rookie ball in 2022 with added power, jacking 7 homers in 32 games, while proving the plus plate approach is for real with a 17.3%/11.8% K%/BB%. He put the cherry on top of his season by making his full season debut and putting up a 109 wRC+ with a 21.7%/14% K%/BB% in 31 games as an 18 year old. The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/23/76/.270/.342/.462/1

647) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.2 – It’s been a long road for Kjerstad battling myocarditis, but he finally made his pro debut in 2022. He destroyed Single-A with a 228 wRC+ in 22 games before struggling hard at High-A with a 86 wRC+ in 43 games. He impressed in the AFL with 5 homers and a 1.007 OPS, but the 31/5 K/BB in 22 games really overshadows the production. You can’t help but root for him, but the loss of development time has really hurt him. It puts him in a late career breakout type bucket as a high risk power bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 48/17/58/.237/.305/.441/2

648) Jackson Jobe DET, RHP, 20.8 – The hyped up, highly drafted Jobe didn’t put up eye popping numbers in his pro debut with a pitching line of 3.84/1.28/81/30 in 77.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A, but the stuff was certainly as advertised. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a high spin slider that almost doesn’t even look real. He also throws a high spin plus curveball and changeup that have plus potential. He’s not a finished product as evidenced by the mediocre results, but the ingredients are there for him to turn into a top of the rotation starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection:  11/3.87/1.24/173 in 165 IP Update: Jobe will be shutdown for 3-6 months with lumbar spine inflammation. Certainly doesn’t sound good. There is already tons of risk with high school pitchers, and this just takes the risk up to the max

649) Jose Rodriguez MIN, OF, 17.10 – The 17 year old Rodriguez is already a big and strong dude at 6’2”, 196 pounds. He led the DSL with 13 homers in 55 games. As impressive as Lazaro Montes is, Rodriguez has a legitimate claim to the top power hitter in his class, and he was also one of the youngest players in the league. The 23.7%/9.6% K%/BB% isn’t all that impressive, and likely portends some plate approach issues against better pitching, but Rodriguez is a great pick if you’re looking for a high upside power hitting prospect. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 71/28/85/.245/.322/.492/6

650) Giovanny Gallegos STL, Setup, 31.8 – Gallegos is next man up in St. Louis and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him grab a share of the closer job. He’s been near elite for 4 years now and that continued in 2022 with a 3.05 ERA and 31.1%/7.7% K%/BB% in 59 IP. 2023 Projection: 4/3.09/0.95/80/12 saves in 65 IP

651)  Jose Alvarado PHI, Closer Committee, 27.10 – This bullpen is full of high upside options, but Alvarado might have the highest upside of them all. He had a silly 37.9% K% on the back of a 99.6 MPH sinker and an elite cutter that put up a .110 xwOBA and 55.7% whiff%. He’s struggled with control his entire career, but something clicked in the 2nd half of the season where he put up a 1.30 ERA with a 61/10 K/BB in his final 34.2 IP. Being a lefty might work against him locking down the full time closer role, but he should be their top lefthanded option there. 2023 Projection: 4/3.03/1.18/82/15 saves in 58 IP

652) Daniel Hudson LAD, Closer Committee, 36.1 – Hudson’s season ended in June with a torn ACL and he’s expected to start on the year on the IL. A 36 year old coming off a serious knee injury certainly seems to me to be very risky. He was dominant before going down with the injury with a 2.22 ERA and 30/5 K/BB in 24.1 IP on the back of a 97 MPH fastball and plus slider. LA has a million options to be the closer, and had Hudson been 100% I might lean his way to take over the full time role, but I wouldn’t be so confident now. 2023 Projection: 3/3.28/1.14/59/15 saves in 50 IP

653) Akil Baddoo DET, OF, 24.7 – Baddoo was a definite miss for me in 2022. Not only didn’t he take a step forward after his strong MLB debut, but he took a big step back with his EV dropping to 85 MPH, his K% rising to 28.4%, and his OPS tanking to .558. He was better in September, but still not great with a .706 OPS. Matt Vierling adds some MLB competition for that LF job, and Justyn-Henry Malloy and Parker Meadows are not far behind. He won’t be given the opportunity to struggle for much longer. You have to know when you cut your losses. I’m not going after him. 2023 Projection: 45/8/38/.230/.312/.390/14

654) Nelson Velazquez CHC, OF, 24.3 – Velazquez has had major hit tool issues his entire career and it has yet to improve at all. He had a 36.2% K% and .211 BA in 34 games at Triple-A, and then he made his MLB debut and put up a 31.6% K% and .205 BA in 77 games. He has plus power and sneaky speed (28.2 ft/sec sprint), but his hit tool has yet to show much if any hope in his 6 year pro career. 2023 Projection: 38/10/41/.220/.299/.412/7

655) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – Allen is a deception lefty with a low 90’s fastball, a changeup which flashes plus, and a solid slider. He carved up Double-A with a 3.33 ERA and 104/22 K/BB in 73 IP before getting hit up at Triple-A with a 6.49 ERA and 73/29 K/BB in 59.2 IP. Getting drilled a Triple-A doesn’t give me huge confidence his stuff will really be able to make an impact against MLB hitters. He has mid rotation upside, but I think he’s more of a back end guy, and Cleveland has a ton of arms. 2023 Projection: 2/4.32/1.35/34 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.28/166 in 160 IP

656) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 23.7 – Wicks had a solid but unspectacular season in his first full year in pro ball with a pitching line of 3.80/1.25/121/28 in 94.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. A plus changeup is his moneymaker and he combines that with a low 90’s fastball and a solid slider. It looks like a back end profile with mid rotation upside to me. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.12/1.28/167 in 165 IP

657) Malcom Nunez PIT, 1B/3B, 22.1 – Nunez burst on the scene in 2018 with a beastly pro debut in the DSL (238 wRC+ in 44 games). He wasn’t able to keep up that production stateside from 2019-2021, but he came back with a vengeance in 2022, slashing .262/.367/.466 with 23 homers and a 20.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 119 games a mostly Double-A. He’s a strong and stout 5’11” and has an explosive swing that reminds me a little of Francisco Alvarez’ swing. He’s not a good defensive player, but Pitt is desperate for young offensive talent, so if he hits, he’ll play. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/23/77/.258/.327/.459/3

658) Wenceel Perez DET, 2B, 23.6 – Perez put up plus to elite contact rates his entire career (15%/10.3% K%/BB% in 2022), we were just waiting for the power to tick up, and it did just that in 2022. He cranked 14 homers in 94 games split between High-A and Double-A on the back of a much improved GB%, bringing it from over 50% to around 35%. He had a 143 wRC+ at both levels. He has plus speed, and he’s improved his base running skills over the past 2 years, going 40 for 7 on the bases in 207 games. It’s a classic top of the order profile, and with Schoop’s contract running out after the 2023 season, he could be given the first shot at taking the job. 2023 Projection: 19/3/13/.2 Prime Projection: 76/14/59/.275/.337/.412/17

659) Eguy Rosario SDP, 2B/3B, 23.8 – Here’s what I wrote in my in-season Dynasty Baseball Rundown on July 4th, “First there was Esports, and now there are Eguys. When will it end? Like Esports, Eguy is taking over, going 3 for 3 with 2 homers and a steal yesterday, and now has 13 homers, 13 steals, and a 21.8%/11.2% K%/BB% in 72 games at Triple-A. He also made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen. Eguys are just built different I guess.” I just thought that was a fun blurb, and Eguy kept it going since then, finishing the year with a 20/20 season (22/21) and an excellent 19.3%/10.5% K%/BB% in 124 games at Triple-A. He got a small taste of the bigs and went 1 for 5. He doesn’t really have any truly standout tools and San Diego’s pitcher’s park won’t do him any favors, but he has the potential to chip in a little bit everywhere. 2023 Projection: 33/5/36/.246/.309/.395/6 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.262/.327/.435/13

660) Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.11 – Arteaga didn’t go full breakout in essentially his full season debut at Single-A, but he still had a solid season with a 101 wRC+ in 122 games as a very young 19 year old. He didn’t let his strikeout rate get out of control with a 27.4% K%, and he still hits for a relatively good BA despite the high strikeout numbers with a .270 BA. He hit 14 homers with a 33.4% GB%, meaning he has some real home run potential when his power inevitably ticks up. He also has plus speed, although a 11 for 17 success rate on the bases is not extremely encouraging. His plus glove will get him on the field, he’s very young, and there is fantasy friendly upside if it all comes together. I’m staying patient. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/22/75/.255/.329/.436/12

661) Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 20.0 – Watson had a rough year both baseball related and maturity related. He got benched earlier in the year for spiking his bat and having a poor attitude, and then he essentially got suspended a little later on for pointing his bat at an umpire like it was a rifle. As for his baseball skills, he struck out 35.5% of the time in 83 games at Single-A. He closed the year out on a strong note, slashing .292/.370/.528 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 19/8 K/BB in his final 18 games. I also refuse to write off a 19 year old as a hopeless case. He deserves a 2nd chance to get his head on straight as enters his 20’s and becomes more comfortable being a professional. His value has certainly fallen this year, but he’s still a super talented prospect with fantasy friendly upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/21/71/.242/.314/.427/15

662) Chase Petty CIN, RHP, 20.0 – Petty’s stuff wasn’t as big as advertised with his fastball sitting around 93-94 MPH rather than the mid to upper 90’s we were expecting/hoping for. Maybe he was taking a little bit off to help his control/command, because he was better than expected there with a 7.7% BB%. He put up a 3.48 ERA with a 23.7% K%. We thought he was high risk/high reward coming into 2022, and he ended up being the opposite of that. He’s now relatively safe but the upside seems limited, especially with Great American Ballpark waiting for him. Maybe he’ll start airing it out more in 2023 to reclaim his upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.05/1.28/153 in 160 IP

663) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

664) Joshua Baez STL, OF, 19.9 – The 6’4”, 220 pound Baez has big time power with big time strikeout issues. He hit 3 homers with a 170 wRC+ in 20 games at Single-A, but it came with a 38% K%. He had a 32.6% in 12 games at rookie ball too. He’s not just a hulking slugger, he’s a good athlete with some speed, stealing 10 bags in 32 games. He’ll still be firmly 19 years old when the 2023 starts, which is a similar age to the incoming rookie class, so he’s ahead of the game. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.242/.324/.472/8

665) Rosman Verdugo SDP, 2B/3B/SS, 18.2 – Verdugo was one of the youngest players in stateside rookie ball, and while striking out 35.4% of the time is worrisome, it didn’t stop him from putting up a 116 wRC+ with 7 homers in 52 games. He has an athletic and explosive righty swing that reminds me a bit of Noelvi Marte, although he doesn’t have Marte’s speed with only 3 steals in 7 attempts. There is a lot of risk here, but the power upside is legit. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 75/27/80/.242/.320/.453/5

666) Ian Lewis MIA, 2B, 20.2 – Lewis got a late start to the season because of a personal issue and then his season ended in mid July with a broken hamate bone. He didn’t have a standout season between all the missed time with a 106 wRC+ in 51 games at Single-A, but he still showed the same exciting skills that popped in 2021. He has a strong plate approach with a 21.1%/10.3% K%/BB%, he hits the ball hard, and he has at least plus speed with 16 steals in 17 attempts. His 55.9% GB% is a little disappointing, and shows he will have to make adjustments to get to his raw power as he hit only 2 homers. It’s an exciting fantasy profile with a safe floor because of the plus hit tool. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/16/69/.274/.332/.447/23

667) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 23.8 – McLain had a big power/speed season at Double-A with 17 homers and 27 steals in 103 games at Double-A, but his .232 BA and 28.1% K% is concerning, and he tanked in the AFL with a .657 OPS and 31.2% K%. He’s not a big raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds, so the hit tool trouble is particularly troubling. 2023 Projection: 9/2/11/.223/.291/.403/3 Prime Projection: 69/18/73/.238/.317/.421/16

668) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

669) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

670) Ethan Salas SDP, C, 16.10 – Salas adds to the bloodline parade as the younger brother of Jose Salas who is currently having a great year in full season ball as a 19 year old. Salas has played in a bunch of Perfect Game events and has been on the radar playing against advanced competition for a long time. All of that to say he is safer than typical of international prospects because of how well he’s played against that competition. He has a quick and powerful lefty swing that has the potential for plus hit and plus power. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 74/24/76/.270/.340/.460/5

671) Travis Swaggerty PIT, OF, 25.8 – Swaggerty has been crushing the ball this spring, drilling 2 homers with a 1.129 OPS and tons of hard hit balls in 21 PA. He crushed the ball in his MLB debut last year too with a 92.1 MPH EV in 5 batted ball events. With a depleted roster and Bryan Reynolds on the trade block, they are almost certain to give Swaggerty a real shot this year, and he has a damn fun power/speed fantasy profile that managers in every league should take a flier on when he does. If you can’t stash him, at least be quick to jump on him when you see him getting his shot. This is similar to my Jake McCarthy call last off-season. 2023 Projection: 56/12/51/.238/.309/.410/14 Prime Projection: 78/18/67/.252/318/.428/18

672) David Hensley HOU, SS/2B/3B, 27.0 – Hensley’s an older prospect, but he looked impressive in his MLB debut with a 194 wRC+ in 34 PA. He had a 90.3 MPH EV, 28.5 ft/sec sprint, and a 17.6%/14.7% K%/BB%. He destroyed Triple-A with that same skillset, putting up a 130 wRC+ with 10 homers and 20 steals in 104 games. He’s a super utility player right now, even getting some time in the OF, and Houston’s doesn’t have the best offensive depth at the moment, so there is a real chance he ends up providing real fantasy value this season. 2023 Projection: 49/9/45/.248/.326/.403/11 Update: Jose Altuve broke his thump and is expected to be out for 8-10 months. This is the opening Hensley needed, and like I wrote in the original blurb, he can now provide legit fantasy value this season.

673) David Festa MIN, RHP, 23.1 – The 6’6”, 185 pound Festa was drafted in the 13th round of the 2021 Draft as a raw project, and Minnesota quickly turned that ball of clay into a legitimately exciting pitching prospect. He destroyed Single-A in 24 IP before quickly getting the call to High-A where he put up a pitching line of 2.71/1.19/75/28 in 79.2 IP. His one start in the High-A playoffs was a gem, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 10/0 K/BB. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with 2 potentially plus secondaries in his slider and change. He should go very late in every off-season prospect draft and is a perfect last round pitcher to grab if you focus on hitting early. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.94/1.27/174 in 170 IP

674) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 24.8 – Shuster has a back end starter profile with a low 90’s fastball, plus changeup, and decent slider. It led to a 3.29 ERA and 145/38 K/BB in 139.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’ll need to either gain a few ticks on the fastball or turn into a truly elite command guy if he wants to beat that back end projection. 2023 Projection: 5/4.34/1.33/109 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.02/1.28/153 in 160 IP Update: Shuster has been dominant in Spring and now looks like the favorite for the 5th starter, at least until Soroka is ready to return. #3/4 starter is his reasonable upside

675) Mason Montgomery TB, LHP, 22.9 – Montgomery is a deception type lefty with a low 90’s fastball he relies on heavily. He combines that with an average slider and lesser used changeup. The skills were good enough to dominate minor league hitters with a 2.10 ERA and 171/43 K/BB in 124 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeouts fell off at Double-A with a 24.3% K%, which shows more advanced hitters are not going to struggle as much with the deception as lower minors guy. A Joe Ryan type is the upside, but the more likely scenario is probably a #4 type starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.28/145 in 150 IP

676) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

677) Robby Snelling SDP, RHP, 19.3 – Selected 39th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Snelling is a big boy at 6’3”, 220 pounds, and befitting his size was also a 4 star football recruit. He chose baseball where he has plus control over one of the best curveballs in his class, to go along with a fastball he can get up into the mid 90’s and a lesser used developing changeup. It’s a relatively safe mid rotation profile with upside if his fastball ticks up and/or he develops truly elite control. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.84/1.22/172 in 170 IP

678) Owen Murphy ATL, RHP, 19.6 – Selected 20th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Murphy isn’t a huge projection guy at 6’1”, 190 pounds and he doesn’t have a huge fastball with low 90’s heat. He also showed some control issues in his pro debut with 6 walks in 12 IP, although he isn’t expected to have major control issues and all of those walks came at the advanced for his age Single-A. On the flip side, he’s a good athlete who definitely has the ability to add velocity as he matures, and he produces high spin rates. His curve is potentially plus to go along with a developing slider and change. Mid rotation upside seems fair to me. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.26/161 in 165 IP

679) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Fabian’s hype almost completely disappeared after he decided to return to college for his senior year, even though he is still the same age as many juniors. His strong pro debut has people talking again though with a 1.070 OPS and 21/19 K/BB in 22 games at mostly Single-A. He did improve his swing and miss issues this year in college, but a .239 BA with a 22.3 K% isn’t exactly great. It’s a 3 true outcome slugger profile, except he has speed and defensive ability to go with it. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/74/.232/.315/.435/8

680) Sterlin Thompson COL, 2B/OF, 21.9 – Selected 31st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Thompson’s been a consistently strong performer in his 2 years in the SEC (.948 OPS in his 121 game college career), he has good size at 6’4”, 200 pounds, and he has a pretty sweet lefty swing that is easy to foresee another level of power coming in the future. He had a solid but unspectacular pro debut with a .787 OPS in 26 games split between rookie ball and Single-A, showing a bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 25.2% K%. It’s a solid across the board profile with power upside and hit tool downside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/21/76/.260/.326/.430/9

681) JJ Bleday OAK, OF, 25.4 – I always warn people not to be fooled by the AFL, and Bleday proved that rule true again. He ripped up the AFL in 2021, but it didn’t translate to MLB success as he was terrible in his MLB debut with a .586 OPS in 238 PA. His extreme 25 degree launch with a 28.2% K% and a 90.1 MPH FB/LD EV is a recipe for disaster. He also struck out a ton at Triple-A, and he’s already 25 years old, so I’m not sure I see an obvious path to improvement. On the plus side, the trade to Oakland opens up playing time for him, and he should get a pretty long leash there as they are desperate for talent 2023 Projection: 48/15/46/.211/.298/.385/6

682) Ramon Urias BAL, 2B/3B, 28.10 – Urias’ starting job is in major jeopardy with the Adam Frazier signing and the plethora of talent that is knocking on the door in Baltimore. He doesn’t necessarily deserve to lose his starting job though as he’s a damn good ball player. His 89.4/94 MPH AVG/FB EV is impressive, and he combines that with a solid 11 degree launch and 22% K%. He has a career .332 xwOBA which is well above average. It’s not a foregone conclusion he loses the job, but Baltimore is starting to feel like a Tampa situation where it is going to be mix and match city. He would be a nice later round option if not for the lack of job security. 2023 Projection: 51/15/54/.261/.322/.420/2

683) Brandon Belt TOR, 1B, 34.11 – Belt’s injury woes got to him again with a knee injury that ultimately required surgery limiting him to 78 games with a .676 OPS. His .326 xwOBA was still firmly above average, so there may be some juice left in the tank. He’s setting up for a platoon role with Toronto, and finally getting out of San Francisco could be a boon for him. 2023 Projection: 43/14/41/.246/.335/.438/2

684) Gio Urshela LAA, 3B, 31.6 – Urshela is a line drive hitter (11.8 degree launch), who gets the bat on the ball (17.4% K%) and has average EV numbers (88.9 MPH EV). It led to a .285 BA with 13 homers in 144 games. He’s going from a well below average park for righty homers to a well above average park for righty homers, so that boost will help, and the Angels park was the 7th best park for righties in 2022 in general (Twins were 22nd). The biggest problem is playing time now that LA added Drury to the mix. He’ll have to fight for infield at bats with Rengifo, Fletcher and Drury. 2023 Projection: 58/13/63/.271/.323/.420/1

685) Jace Peterson OAK, 3B, 32.11 – Peterson is currently penciled in as Oakland’s 3B but he has plenty of younger competition for the job. There’s an interesting fantasy profile here with some pop (88.6 MPH EV), speed (28.5 ft/sec sprint speed) and on base ability (10.1% BB%) that led to 8 homers with 12 steals in 328 PA in 2022. He won’t hit for a high BA, but as long as he’s getting playing time, he could be an option even in shallower leagues. 2023 Projection: 49/10/41/.238/.319/.380/14

686) Luis Rengifo LAA, 2B/3B, 25.11 – Rengifo had a rock solid year on the surface with a .264 BA, 17 homers, and 6 steals in 127 games, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. He had a well below average 86.9 MPH EV and .296 xwOBA. I don’t trust those power numbers one bit. He gets the bat on the ball with a 15.5% K%, but his 3.3% BB% is extremely low. He simply doesn’t seem like he should be starting for a MLB team, and with the Brandon Drury signing, he might not be. 2023 Projection: 42/10/44/.253/.305/.410/7

687) Tony Kemp OAK, 2B/OF, 31.5 – Kemp hit 7 barrels all year in 558 PA. He’s hit 16 barrels in his entire career in 1818 PA. His .267 xwOBA was in the bottom 2% of the league. He’s somehow Oaklands leadoff hitter, and he was still only able to rack up 61 runs in that role. He gets the bat on the ball with a 12.4% K% and he runs a little with 11 steals, but this is as low of an upside profile as it gets. Purely a deep league roster filler. 2023 Projection: 68/8/49/.248/.326/.357/10

688) Franmil Reyes KCR, OF, 27.9 – Reyes had a down year with a career low 11.3% Barrel%, 33.2% K%, and 6.3% BB%, which led to a .638 OPS. He still crushed the ball with a 92 MPH EV, and is only 27 years old, so it seems reasonable to expect a bounce back, but he’s so horrible defensively there is no guarantee he’ll get full time at bats even with a mediocre KC roster 2023 Projection: 47/20/61/.238/.306/.441/2

689) Yonathan Daza COL, OF, 29.1 – Daza has plus contact rates (14.2% K%) and seemingly has the CF job, but that is about it with a 1.9% Barrel% and 0 steals in 113 games. 2023 Projection: 63/5/44/.278/.330/.385/4

690) Jack Suwinski PIT, OF, 24.8 – Suwinski is a beneficiary of playing in Pitt because there isn’t much competition over there. He hits the ball pretty hard with a 88.3/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV, he’s fast with a 28.7 ft/sec sprint, and he has high walk rates (11% BB%). His poor hit tool tanks the entire profile though with a .202 BA and 30.6% K%. He had a 37.7% K% and .214 BA in 31 games at Triple-A, so I’m not sure there is a ton hope here. He’s not a base stealer either despite his plus speed. Opportunity and athleticism is what you are buying. 2023 Projection: 52/18/45/.228/.309/.419/6

691) Nick Allen OAK, 2B/SS, 24.6 – Allen is a plus defensive SS, but you don’t get points for that in fantasy. That is just about all he does well with a terrible 83.9 MPH EV and slightly above average speed. He doesn’t even have elite contact rates with a 19.6% K%. 2023 Projection: 56/8/44/.241/.309/.351/8

692) Luis Campusano SD, C, 24.6 – The Padres just don’t want to give Campusano a real shot, and his defense is probably the main reason for it. He’s still young and catchers are notorious for taking a long time to develop, but if he can’t stick at catcher, I’m not sure the bat is good enough to really make a fantasy impact. He’s put up plus contact rates in the minors, but he’s been a whiff machine in the majors with a 37.5% whiff% in 2020, 37.9% whiff% in 2021, and 31.7% whiff% in 2022, albeit in very small samples. He has plus power potential, but he’s been mostly a groundball hitter throughout his career. San Diego is also one of the worst hitter’s parks in the majors. I do think Campusano eventually gets a full shot, but he’s the type I might pick up when he finally does, rather than hold and wait for it. 2023 Projection: 23/6/27/.240/.299/.404/0 Prime Projection: 51/18/57/.252/.321/.443/0

693) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Mata returned from Tommy John surgery in June and quickly established the nasty stuff is fully back with him regularly sitting in the upper 90’s with his 4-seamer. He combines that with a diverse pitch mix that features a potentially plus slider, a nasty 2 seamer, a curve, and a change. He touched every level of the minors this year other than rookie ball and racked up K’s at every level with 105 strikeouts in 83 IP which led to a 2.49 ERA. The problem is that he has major control issues, putting up a 14.7% BB% in 23.1 IP at Triple-A. It’s a high risk, high reward profile with major bullpen risk. 2023 Projection: 3/4.10/1.34/71/4 saves in 65 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.28/1.18/85/28 saves in 70 IP

694) Spencer Arrighetti HOU, RHP, 23.3 – Arrighetti strikes me as the classic (or at least of recent times) underrated Astros pitcher. We just saw them turn Cristian Javier into an ace who was in a similar bucket as a high K, poor control guy. Bryan Abreu also had an excellent year out of the pen. Arrighetti is similar with a 152/52 K/BB in 106.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The 4.73 ERA isn’t great, but he was actually better at Double-A with a 3.43 ERA. He has an athletic delivery with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He’ll likely break in as a pen arm, but he has upside in that role and they could eventually give him a shot in the rotation. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 7/3.81/1.29/131 in 120 IP

695) Adam Duvall BOS, OF, 34.7 – Duvall with crack some homers with a poor plate approach that will kill your average and OBP. He seems to have a path to playing time in Boston as he’s a pretty good defensive player, but there are no guarantees. 2023 Projection: 43/17/52/.228/.292/.420/0

696) Robbie Grossman TEX, OF, 33.7 – Grossman bottomed out in 2022 in BA, power, and speed. So basically everything. Texas seems intent on giving him a 2nd chance though, and he’s just one season removed from a 23/20 season. He’s also ripping up the spring with a 1.106 OPS, 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 6/8 K/BB in 43 PA. The dead ball might have been the real problem though, as he hits the ball in the air a lot and he doesn’t hit it that hard. Who knows what balls will be used this year. I’m hoping it’s something in between the juiced balls and the dead balls. 2023 Projection: 59/13/57/.228/.326/.390/11

697) Kyle Isbel KCR, OF, 26.1 – Isbel is currently fighting for an OF job, and considering he’s hitting .471 in spring, he might be winning one. He actually hit the ball pretty hard in 2022 with an 89.7 MPH EV despite only putting up a .604 OPS in 278 PA. His K rates are high, but his whiff rates look much better, and he has some speed too. The speed alone should make him fantasy relevant if he’s able to maintain a healthy amount of playing time. 2023 Projection: 42/8/38/.241/.303/.391/14

698) Nate Eaton KCR, OF, 26.3 – There are so many fringe options in KC it’s very hard to sift through all of them. Eaton is one of those options, and elite speed is his game with a 29.7 ft/sec sprint speed. He also stole 11 bags in in 122 MLB PA. The hit tool isn’t great and neither is the power, so it’s a steals only player with playing time issues. 2023 Projection: 36/5/31/.238/.301/.374/13

699) Ryan Kreidler DET, 3B/SS, 25.4 – Kreidler couldn’t build on his breakout 2022 with his wRC+ at Triple-A dropping from 147 to 106, and his K% jumping from 24.1% to 28.8%. His MLB debut went even worse with a .477 OPS in 84 PA. The underlying numbers weren’t quite as bad though, and showed seeds of hope with a reasonable 27.6% whiff% and an average 88.2 MPH EV. He’s pretty fast too with a 28.3 ft/sec sprint speed, and he stole 17 bases in 18 attempts in 60 games at Triple-A. He’s currently in the mix for Detroit at 3B, and while I wouldn’t expect big production, there is a potentially moderate power/speed combo in here. 2023 Projection: 56/14/51/.227/.298/.401/10

700) Tyler Freeman CLE, SS, 23.10 – Freeman just never developed beyond a plus contact, weak hitting middle infielder. He put up a mediocre .735 OPS and 104 wRC+ in 72 games at Triple-A, and then he made his MLB debut and put up a .600 OPS with an 85.9 MPH EV in 86 PA. He has some speed, but he’s not a big base stealer with only 7 steals between the 2 levels. The elite contact rates fully transferred to the majors with a 12.8% K%, but this is a bottom of the order profile even if he does work his way into full time at bats. 2023 Projection: 21/3/14/.266/.318/.388/4 Prime Projection: 74/13/62/.276/.332/.405/11

701) Alejandro Osuna TEX, OF, 20.6 – Osuna reminds me a whole lot of Melky Cabrera. He has a quick and firm lefty swing that should be able to produce at least average power at peak (8 homers in 76 games at Single-A), and he combines that with a good feel to hit (15.9%/11.3% K%/BB%) and speed (32 steals in 47 attempts). If the power really ticks up, he could be the roided up version of Melky, but he’s more likely the non roided version. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/69/.272/.334/.426/14

702) T.J. White WAS, OF, 19.8 – White was one of my favorite deep sleepers last off-season, and that will remain true for this off-season. He was 18 years old for most of the season at Single-A and put up a 118 wRC+ in 92 games. He’s a switch hitter with a powerful bat at 6’2”, 210 pounds, and he’s a good athlete too, nabbing 8 bags in 9 attempts. There are some swing and miss issues (27.2% K%), and he’s a corner outfielder, but White has a real chance to be an impact fantasy player. He’s seriously underrated. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/23/79/.246/.326/.450/7

703) Cade Doughty TOR, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 78th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Doughty had a big time pro debut, jacking out 6 homers with a 147 wRC+ in 26 games at Single-A, although the 24.4%/8.4% K%/BB% is a bit mediocre. He’s raked in the SEC all 3 years he’s played there, slashing .301/.379/.541 with 30 homers, 9 steals, and an 89/56 K/BB in 133 career games. A guy who rips it up in the toughest conference in baseball and then has an excellent pro debut is a very enticing underrated FYPD pick. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.258/.326/.441/4

704) Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B/3B, 22.4 –  Selected 58th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Locklear put up video game numbers in the Atlantic 10, slashing .402/.542/.799 with 20 homers, 6 steals, and a 25/47 K/BB in 62 games. He smashed in pro ball too with 7 homers and a 21.8% K% in 29 games at Single-A. The power is very real at 6’3”, 210 pounds and he also has a good feel to hit with a relatively short righty swing. The swing isn’t particularly athletic, he has below average speed and he’s likely a 1B long term, so the bat will have to hit it’s absolute ceiling to hold down a full time job. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 64/22/77/.254/.321/.466/2

705) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 24.5 – The lefty Kavadas wrecked the lower level of the minors with 24 homers in 96 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his swing and miss issues caught up with him when he got to Double-A, putting up a 40% K% with only 2 homers in 24 games. For an older player, that isn’t a great sign. He’s also a 1B only guy, which causes another road block to playing time. He’s a walk machine and the power is legit, so I could see him chiseling out some kind of platoon role on the MLB level a la Dan Vogelbach. 2023 Projection: 9/3/12/.219/.305/.410/0  Prime Projection: 48/18/57/.232/.328/.430/1

706) Ivan Melendez ARI, 1B, 23.4 –  Selected 43rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Melendez is a big man who hits for big power, banging out 32 homers in 67 Big12 games. There are K’s present in his game, but he isn’t a homer or nothing type player, so he could keep the average respectable, and he isn’t a bad athlete either. I’m a little concerned that he is old for his draft class at 22, and then those concerns were exacerbated when he didn’t have a very good pro debut with a 94 wRC+ in 25 games at Single-A. Regardless, if you are looking for a big power bat who should move through the minors relatively quickly, Melendez should come at a reasonable price in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 69/24/76/.245/.328/.468/1

707) Brock Jones TBR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 65th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Jones is an elite athlete who also played safety for Stanford’s football team his freshman year before giving football up to focus solely on baseball. It was a smart decision, because his numbers exploded after that, drilling 39 homers with 30 steals in 121 Pac12 games. It would have been nice to see the strikeout rate improve this year, but that wasn’t the case with 78 K’s in 65 games. On the bright side, he’s a walk machine with 55 walks, so add a star in OBP leagues. His pro debut went exactly as expected showing both the big tools and big risk, slashing .265/.407/.529 with 4 homers, 11 steals, and a 31.4%/19.8% K%/BB% in 19 games split between rookie and Single-A ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.243/.328/.451/10

708) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 25.7 – It’s important to be cutthroat in fantasy regarding prospects, which is why Whitley’s days of being a highly valued prospect are over, but I also don’t love just throwing a former elite guy away for nothing as he’s knocking on the door of the bigs. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021, and was understandably rusty when he returned to Triple-A in July with a 7.09 ERA and 22.8%/15.8% K%/BB% in 33 IP. The stuff was still big with a mid 90’s fastball and three potentially plus secondaries in his slider, change, and curve. You might as well give him one more year to get fully healthy and see if he can recapture some of his former magic, because the stuff is there to do it. He looks almost certain to start his career in the pen because of his control issues, injuries, and Houston’s depth, but he can make an impact there and it’s probably the best way for him to break into the bigs regardless. 2023 Projection: 2/4.31/1.39/51 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.34/157 in 150 IP

709) Sal Stewart CIN, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Stewart is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential to hit for both power and average. He put up a 5/4 K/BB with 4 doubles and a 135 wRC+ in 8 games in his pro debut at rookie ball, and he didn’t show any major groundball issues with a 42.1% GB%. He might end up moving to 1B, but he has the bat to profile anywhere. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/25/83/.268/.341/.476/4

710) Reggie Crawford SFG, LHP/1B, 22.4 – Selected 30th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Crawford underwent Tommy John surgery in late 2021 and missed all of the 2022 season. He’s a 2 way player whose future is likely on the mound, even though he has pitched a total of 8 IP in college. All of that to say there are a ton of unknowns. The reason he still got drafted so highly is because the skills and build are undeniable. He’s a ripped 6’4”, 235 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider. He also had a .908 OPS in his 64 game minor league career, although the plate approach is weak, and he didn’t look all that good in his pro debut in rookie ball with a .396 OPS and 9/2 K/BB in 6 games. It’s basically a complete shot in the dark, but the San Francisco brain trust are obviously believers, and the upside is high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.44/1.21/85/25 saves in 65 IP or 9/4.03/1.33/160 in 150 IP

711) Axiel Plaz PIT, C, 17.8 – Plaz was one of the youngest players in the DSL at 16 years old for most of the season and was one of the best performers with a 210 wRC+. He slashed .382/.500/.706 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 18.6%/15.1% K%/BB% in 32 games. He was known for his strong glove when he signed, and the bat is obviously advanced as well. He’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, 160 pounds, but there could be another inch or two in here as we are talking about a 16/17 old. 17 year old catchers are not the best investment for fantasy baseball, but Plaz is the top catcher target for his class/age group. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 67/20/73/.268/.334/.447/3

712) Jackson Ferris CHC, LHP, 19.3 – Selected 47th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Ferris can still be inconsistent, but all of the components are really exciting. He’s a big lefty with prototypical size and projection. He has a fairly athletic delivery that he uses to fire a fastball he can get into the mid 90’s to go along with two potentially impact secondaries in his curve and change. The control can come and go, but he’s a nice high upside pitcher to take a shot on. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/3.87/1.31/169 in 154 IP

713) Hendry Mendez MIL, OF, 19.5 – Mendez was an 18 year old in full season ball and he put up an impressive 15.7%/13.9% K%/BB% in 105 games. It came with only 5 homers and a 62.5% GB% which resulted in a below average 98 wRC+. He’s 6’2”, 175 pounds with a vicious lefty swing, but that groundball rate is very extreme. He’ll need to make a major adjustment to unlock more of his raw power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/15/68/.282/.348/.423/8

714) Jay Allen CIN, OF, 20.4 – Allen’s power was much worse than anticipated. He hit only 3 homers in 91 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. There was tons of weak contact that led to a .225 BA. His contact rates weren’t all that good either with a 24% K%. He’s a great athlete with plus speed (43 steals) and more raw power in the tank at 6’2”, 190 pounds, so the upside is still high, but the lack of power was extreme enough for me to shy away from him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.240/.317/.418/22

715) Jose Gerardo MIA, OF, 17.10 – Gerardo was your classic long and lean projectable international signing, and he showed off that talent in his pro debut with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a 156 wRC+ in 50 games in the DSL. The catch is that it came with a 30.3% K% (and 15.1% BB%). That is a lot of swing and miss against the lowest level of pitchers, and he’s not necessarily a beast like Lazaro Montes where it is easier to overlook. He’s a guy who will either skyrocket up rankings, or will disappear if the hit tool looks even worse against advanced pitchers. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/23/76/.241/.317/.440/11

716) Justin Campbell CLE, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 37th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Campbell is 6’7”, 220 pounds with an easy and athletic delivery. Sometimes guys this tall can have an awkward delivery, but not Campbell. His dive bombing changeup in his best pitch, to go along with a low to mid 90’s fastball which gets plenty of whiffs, and 2 effective breaking balls in his curve and slider. His 3.82 ERA was a little inflated, but the 141/25 K/BB in 101.1 IP is much more indicative of his talent. Cleveland knows a thing or two about pitching development, and Campbell is legitimately exciting, especially if his fastball can tick up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.95/1.25/168 in 165 IP

717) Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Selected 66th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Whisenhunt was suspended for the entire 2022 season for a positive drug test he claimed stemmed from some supplements he took. He debuted in pro ball though and looked good with a 0.00 ERA and 19/1 K/BB in 9.2 IP split between rookie, Single-A, and the Fall League. His bread and butter is an absolutely filthy changeup that he goes to often. He combines that with a low to mid 90’s fastball and a potentially plus curve. If the fastball ticks up, he could be especially dangerous, and he’s a strong pitching prospect as is. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.28/163 in 160 IP

718) DJ Herz CHC, LHP, 22.3 – Herz dominated High-A with a 2.26 ERA and 99/37 K/BB in 63.2 IP, but he fell apart at Double-A with a 8.24 ERA and 42/33 K/BB in 31.2 IP. His control wasn’t good at either stop, and it got horrific at Double-A. It’s not a great sign for his future as a starter, and likely pushes him closer to a bullpen role. I love his stuff, delivery and upside, but the bullpen risk is now very, very high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.26/1.18/88/15 saves in 65 IP

719) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7 – The highly touted Arias showed major hit tool concern in his pro debut with a .194 BA and 32.9% K% in 31 DSL games, but at least his other tools shined. He hit the ball hard with 3 homers, 6 doubles, and 2 triples, he walked a ton with at 20% BB%, and he stole 10 bags. Even with the terrible BA he still had an above average 113 wRC+. The hit tool adds risk, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/22/75/.253/.334/.442/13

720) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 22.8 – Rojas is a speedster who nabbed 62 bags in 67 attempts in 130 games split between High-A and Double-A. He has above average, but not elite contact rates with a 17.8% K%, and his power is lacking with only 7 homers. We’ve seen enough of these types of prospects struggle hard when they hit the majors, but he has an elite skill in his speed, and the power should hopefully tick up in time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/13/57/.252/.318/.396/27

721) Liover Peguero PIT, SS, 22.3 – Peguero is going to need to hit the ball a lot harder to start doing damage. He’s still a relatively thin 6’2”, 200 pounds, so there should be another level of power to unlock here. As is, he put up a 88 wRC+ with 10 homers in 121 games at Double-A. He has speed with 28 steals, but his plate approach is mediocre with a 21.3%/5.6% K%/BB%. There is an exciting blend of tools here, but it hasn’t all come together yet. 2023 Projection: 18/4/14/.242/.294/.378/6 Prime Projection: 76/16/62/.262/.318/.417/19

722) Drew Smyly CHC, LHP, 33.10 – Smyly has one above average pitch in his curveball which he threw 42.9% of the time. His sinker and cutter both generally get hit up. He did have a 3.47 ERA with a 7 year best 5.8% BB% and career best 86.7 MPH EV against in 106.1 IP, but his 4.17 xERA is more indicative of his talent level and he’s always had injury problems. He can put together some solid years, but solid is his ceiling really. 2023 Projection: 7/4.05/1.28/118 in 130 IP

723) Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 30.2 – Pivetta never had an ERA under 4.53. None of his pitches are particularly good, his fastball is down to 93.4 MPH, his control is below average, and his K/9 was under 9 this year. He’s just not very good. 2023 Projection: 9/4.59/1.36/169 in 165 IP

724) Michael Wacha SDP, RHP, 31.9 – I’m not buying the 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP. He’s a below average K guy (20.2% K%), he gets hit hard (9.6% Barrel%), and he doesn’t have huge stuff with a 93 MPH fastball. His 4.56 xERA shows he got lucky in 2022. He does have control (6% BB%) with a good changeup (.247 xwOBA), so it’s not like there is nothing here to buy into. 2023 Projection: 9/4.18/1.27/120 in 140 IP

725) Dean Kremer BAL, RHP, 27.3 – Kremer improved his control considerably, bringing his BB% all the way down to 6.6%, and it led to a strong season with a 3.23 ERA in 125.1 IP. Most of it was good luck with a 4.46 xERA and he doesn’t miss many bats with a 17% K%. A plus control profile of a 5 pitch mix can be an effective MLB starter, but the there isn’t much upside. 2023 Projection: 8/4.31/1.32/121 in 150 IP

726) Daniel Lynch KC, LHP, 26.4 – Lynch is a 6’6” lefty with a 94 MPH fastball and 5 pitch mix. He was an exciting hyped prospect, but it just hasn’t produced results. He got rocked again in the majors with a 5.13 ERA, 91.2 MPH EV against, and 20.3%/8.7% K%/BB% in 131.2 IP. It’s hard to just keep taking a shot on the raw talent, but we’ve seen talented pitchers not figure it out until their late 20’s or even 30’s sometimes. 2023 Projection: 6/4.68/1.44/126 in 140 IP

727) Jesus Sanchez MIA, OF, 25.6 – Sanchez couldn’t build on his strong rookie year with his OPS tanking to .682 in 98 games, but there are signs he could bounce back in 2023. He still crushed the ball with a 89.5/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his K% actually improved from 31.1% to 26.8%. He also raked when he got sent back down to Triple-A with a 134 wRC+. A big time power breakout wouldn’t be surprising at all, but he’s going to have to scratch and claw for playing time with Miami’s off-season additions. 2023 Projection: 36/13/43/.241/.311/.432/1

728) Jose Barrero CIN, SS, 25.0 – Barrero not only bottomed out in 2022, he hit the bottom, cracked through it, and then kept going deeper. He had a 5 wRC+ with a 43.7%/5.2% K%/BB% in 174 MLB PA. He was barely better in Triple-A with a 66 wRC+ and 37.6%/4.6% K%/BB% in 237 PA. He destroyed Triple-A in 2021 with a 158 wRC+ and 22.2% K%, so this really came out of nowhere. He was so horrible, and he’s not really all that young either, it’s hard to hold the fort on his value. He’s not a burner (63.7 percentile sprint), and he doesn’t have monster power (90.4 MPH FB/LD EV), so I’m not exactly sure what we would be buying into here. A hamate injury kept him out early in the year, so maybe that lingered and/or threw him off his normal routine. It’s almost impossible for him to be as bad in 2023 as he was in 2022, but I’m not buying hard into a bounce back. 2023 Projection: 35/7/35/.213/.277/.351/7

729) Geraldo Perdomo ARI, SS, 23.5 – Perdomo had a chance to lock in the starting job with Ahmed going down for the year, and he was straight horrific with a .547 OPS and 85 MPH EV. He doesn’t have much speed either with a below average 27.2 ft/sec sprint speed. The one bright spot was his plate approach (20.6%/10%), so if he can get stronger as he matures, there is hope for a solid across the board profile. 2023 Projection: 43/6/35/.232/.313/.351/8 Prime Projection: 72/15/63/.261/.334/.414/11

730) Brian Anderson MIL, OF/3B, 29.11 – Anderson is likely a part time player but it’s possible he can win a full time OF job. He can be a solid hitter, but that is his ceiling without speed and only average power. 2023 Projection: 45/10/45/.239/.320/.408/3

731) Cal Mitchell PIT, OF, 24.1 – Mitchell isn’t that good but Pitt is begging for anything to click. He gets the bat on the ball (14.6% K% at Triple-A and 22.4% in the majors) with about average power and below average speed. Opportunity and youth are the main buying points. 2023 Projection: 45/10/45/.245/.307/.398/6

732) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 25.6 – Cespedes showed off both his upside and risk this year in 119 games at Double-A with 17 homers, 33 steals, and a 30.1%/5.7% K%/BB%. Considering he was 24 years old, the terrible plate approach clearly overshadows the exciting power/speed combo, but I would be hesitant to completely write him off. He’s in the potential late career breakout bucket. It won’t be smooth sailing, but there could be some good years from like his age 27-32 year old seasons. 2023 Projection: 9/1/6/.217/.278/.379/3 Prime Projection: 75/17/61/.237/.302/.400/20

733) Matt Wallner MIN, OF, 25.4 – Wallner is a mountain of a man at 6’5”, 220 pounds with huge power and patience, jacking 27 homers with a 17% BB% in 128 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but it comes with an equally huge strikeout issue (29.8% K%). He got an MLB cup of coffee in September and the K% spiked to 38.5% in 18 games. Considering the BA risk and defense risk as well (he’s a poor corner outfielder), I have Wallner in flier territory only, even in an OBP league. 2023 Projection: 20/7/26/.213/.305/.410/1 Prime Projection: 46/16/49/.221/.318/.428/3

734) Hunter Goodman COL, C/1B, 23.6 – Goodman cracked my 2022 “Top 1,000” Rankings at #1,002 because of his huge power, and pro ball didn’t slow him down at all in that regard with 36 homers in 134 games split between Single-A (137 wRC+ in 73 games), High-A (153 wRC+ in 49 games), and Double-A (74 wRC+ in 12 games). On the downside, the plate approach isn’t good with a 26.1%/6.9% K%/BB%. The profile reminds me of a former Colorado Rockies catcher prospect, Tom Murphy. Murphy is also a fair comp for Goodman’s future. He will hit for power with a low BA and will likely always have to battle for playing time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 54/20/68/.241/.308/.449/3

735) Michael Arroyo SEA, SS/3B, 18.5 – Arroyo was a high priced international signing who was known for his plus hit tool and mature approach. He came exactly as advertised in his pro debut, slashing .314/.457/.484 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and a 16.6%/13.6% K%/BB% in 49 DSL games. He’s similar to Gabriel Gonzalez in that he isn’t a huge tools guy at 5’10”, 160 pounds, although his power potential probably doesn’t rise quite to Gonzalez’ level. I want to love Arroyo even more, but it’s hard for me to fly a guy up my rankings who doesn’t have huge upside, is a long way off from the majors, and hasn’t even debuted stateside. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/21/73/.273/.339/.447/6

736) AJ Vukovich ARI, 3B, 21.9 – Vukovich is a big man at 6’5”, 210 pounds with big raw power and excellent athleticism. His stats haven’t really popped in his 2 year pro career with a .766 OPS in 2021 and a .757 OPS in 2022 at High-A, and his mediocre plate approach (23.4%/4% K%/BB% at High-A) shows he is still a bit of a project, so this is a bet on the talent. With continued refinement, he has a legitimate chance to blow up. He’s being slept on a bit too much for my liking. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection:  72/23/78/.251/.314/.448/8

737) Jeremy De La Rosa WAS, OF, 21.3 – De La Rosa is an explosive ballplayer with plus speed (39 steals in 101 games) and developing power (11 homers). He was really cooking at Single-A with a 148 wRC+ in 69 games, but he fell off a cliff when he got to the age appropriate High-A with a 53 wRC+ in 32 games. He’s also had strikeout issues throughout his career, putting up a 27.8% K% at High-A. It’s a high risk, high reward profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/17/72/.248/.323/.428/18

738) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

739) Daniel Susac OAK, C, 21.11 – Selected 19th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Susac certainly looks the part at an athletic 6’4”, 218 pounds with plus raw power. He tore up the Pac12 with 24 homers and a .999 OPS in his 125 game college career. The reason I don’t have him ranked higher is because his plate approach isn’t great with a 23.4%/6.5% K%/BB% in his 25 game pro debut in Single-A, and he doesn’t have a high launch angle with a 56.3% GB%. There is upside here with further refinement, but a catcher prospect who will hit in Oakland’s pitcher’s park and still needs to make adjustments is not my favorite investment. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 61/18/67/.267/.322/.434/1

740) Leonardo Balcazar CIN, SS, 18.9 – Balcazar ripped up the DSL in 2021 with a 135 wRC+, and he did the same stateside in 2022 with a 144 wRC+ in 42 games. His 25% K% is on the high side, but he has an exciting blend of tools with emerging power (4 homers in 42 games), speed (13 steals), and a mature plate approach (10.7% BB%). He’s flying too far under the radar. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/21/74/.263/.334/.432/14

741) Manuel Beltre TOR, SS, 18.10 – Beltre hasn’t had the big statistical breakout yet, but the ingredients for it are still bubbling right under the surface. He has a strong plate approach (19.7%/10.7% K%/BB%) with a low GB% (33.1%) and some speed (9 steals). It only led to 1 homer and a 96 wRC+ in 49 games at rookie ball, but when the power ticks up, it could lead to an offensive explosion. He got a 5 game cup of coffee at Single-A and wasn’t fazed by the advanced competition with a 13.6% K%, 1 homer, and 178 wRC+. He’s slowly being forgotten about, but he’s a sneaky good later round target in prospect drafts.  ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/21/76/.268/.336/.441/12

742) Mason Auer TBR, OF, 22.1 – Auer was 21 years old in the lower minors, which is a little older than you would like, but he handled his business at both Single-A (135 wRC+ in 60 games) and High-A (133 wRC+ in 55 games). Plus speed is his best skill right now and he used it to jack 48 bases in 55 games. He was a considered a raw prospect when drafted in 2021, and his swing looks it for sure as it is quite awkward to my eye. The rawness gives him some untapped upside, but there is a lot more refinement needed and he’s yet to face advanced competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 64/13/52/.250/.322/.413/16

743) Jonathan Mejia STL, SS, 18.0 – The switch hitting Mejia cracked my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings at #999, and he proved he deserved to be on the list with a strong pro debut in the DSL, slashing .267/.418/.479 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 23.1%/15.9% K%/BB% in 45 games. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He’s not the type who is likely to explode to elite prospect status, but there is potential for an above average hit/power combo at peak. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 75/21/78/.268/.331/.444/6

744) Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 22.11 – The 6’5”, 220 pound Clarke lived up to his billing as a high risk, high reward prospect, slashing .248/.365/.469 with 15 homers, 30 steals, and a 32.8%/13.6% K%/BB% in 93 games split between Single-A (147 wRC+ in 42 games) and High-A (102 wRC+ in 51 games). His K% spiked to 36.2% at High-A which underscores his risk. He didn’t come from a big time college program, so considering this was his first real taste of advanced competition, there will hopefully be more room for improvement than your typical 22/23 year old prospect in the lower minors. He’s likely setting up to be a late career breakout type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/23/75/.233/.309/.435/16

745) Lawrence Butler OAK, 1B/OF, 22.9 – Butler’s power/speed numbers were far more modest in 2022 vs. 2021, putting up a 19/29 season in 102 games split between Single-A and High-A in 2021 vs. a 11/13 season in 84 games at High-A in 2022. And it wasn’t because he made any hit tool gains because his K% remained high at a 31.5%. It was still good for a 129 wRC+ and he hit well in the AFL too with a .833 OPS and 15/15 K/BB in 19 games. For a high risk prospect, it would have been nice to see the power/speed numbers really popping in the lower minors, but it doesn’t really change his ultimate profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 62/21/68/.232/.307/.434/10

746) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 22.4 – Robinson is a total wild card. He hasn’t played since 2019 and it is unclear when he will be able to resume his career. I don’t think he is a must hold if you have a minor league roster crunch and there is someone more enticing out there for the picking. He’s a pure flier at this point. ETA: ??? Prime Projection: ???

747) Lonnie White PIT, OF, 20.3 – White debuted for 2 games in July, put up a 42.9%/0.0% K%/BB%, and then disappeared again. He struck out 42.4% of the time in 9 games in 2021. He seemed to be dealing with an elbow and hamstring injury, both of which they deemed minor, but it seems odd to me he only played in 2 games. It’s not a great sign and there is tons of lost development time here. He’s an elite athlete at 6’3”, 212 pounds, but he’s basically all unknowns. He’s a high risk shot in the dark. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 48/14/54/.232/.304/.424/9

748) Mikey Romero BOS, SS, 19.3 – Selected 24th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Romero is a classic better in real life than fantasy hitter. He has a plus hit tool, and he showed it off in his pro debut with a 9.3%/16.3% K%/BB% in 10 games in rookie ball. He then went to Single-A and hit .349 in 9 games. There isn’t enough power or speed to get really excited for fantasy though with a potentially average power/speed combo at best probably. It’s a safe profile that is more enticing the deeper the league is. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/16/69/.278/.341/.417/9

749) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 18.11 – Selected 79th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Anthony is a projectable 6’3”, 200 pounds with a big lefty swing that generates big time power to go along with above average run times. The hit tool was a concern coming into the draft, but his pro debut eased some of those concerns with a 8/9 K/BB in 20 games split between rookie and Single-A, although it came with an about 60% GB%, 0 homers, and 1 steal. There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/21/76/.258/.327/.445/8

750) Sebastian Walcott TEX, SS, 17.1 – Walcott has as much upside as anyone in the international class, including Celesten. He’s 6’3”, 170 pounds with huge bat speed that portends plus power potential, a good feel to hit, and speed. Saying he jumps off the screen doesn’t even do him justice, he explodes off the screen. Watching him reminds me of the excitement I had with Alexander Ramirez, except with Walcott it is even more obvious. Love him as a late round FYPD target. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/25/83/.256/.331/.458/12

751) Joendry Vargas LAD, SS, 17.5 – Vargas is expected to sign with the Dodgers, and when we’re dealing with the rawest of prospects, I’ll give a big lean to a guy in a great developmental organization. It’s not just the organization with Vargas though, he’s a projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds with all the requisite skills you look for in a high priced international signing. He’s a great athlete with a good fell to hit, power projection, and speed. He could be the righty version of what Josue De Paula did this year for the Dodgers. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 78/23/81/.263/.335/.446/8

752) Jun-seok Shim PIT, RHP, 19.0 – Shim has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 215 pounds and he has the big fastball befitting of his stature with mid to upper 90’s heat. He has good control over his entire 4 pitch arsenal, with his big curveball as his best secondary. He’ll need to improve his secondaries to really enter elite pitching prospect range. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.91/1.23/170 in 170 IP

753) Walter Ford SEA, RHP, 18.3 – Selected 74th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Ford is one of the youngest players in the draft, which contributes to making him one of the most projectable as well. He’s 6’3”, 198 pounds with a low to mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider, and developing change. If you can project anybody to gain a tick or two on their fastball, it’s the 18 year old Ford. He has a quick twitch, athletic and explosive delivery that jumps off the screen and underlies his upside. He could have been one of the top pitchers off the board if he stuck with his original 2023 class. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/173 in 160 IP

754) Connor Prielipp MIN, LHP, 22.3 – Selected 43rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Prielipp pitched just 7 innings in 2021 before tearing his UCL and requiring Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2022. When healthy, he throws a low 90’s fastball with an at least plus slider and above average changeup. The surgery adds risk and he’s pitched just 28 innings in his college career, but the ingredients are there for him to be a mid rotation starter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.25/165 in 160 IP

755) Zack Greinke KCR, RHP, 39.5 – Greinke re-signed with Kansas City. He put up a 3.68 ERA with a ridiculous 4.8 K/9 in 137 IP in 2022. It’s almost cool to see a throwback pitcher season like it’s the 1800;s. CY Young and his career 3.4 K/9 would be proud. Well, proud of the strikeout total, but not the IP total. This man threw 453 innings in a single season one time. Boy have times changed. 2023 Projection: 8/3.83/1.29/93 in 150 IP

756) Drew Rucinski OAK, RHP, 34.3 – Rucinski left the states for Korea and he become one of the best pitchers in the KBO with a 2.97 ERA and 194/34 K/BB in 193.2 IP in 2022. He’s dominated in all 4 years he played there. His fastball ticked up in Korea to around 92-93 MPH, so there was some real improvement, but it’s likely he’s a back end guy in line with his $3 million contract. 2023 Projection: 8/4.31/1.33/135 in 160 IP

757) James Kaprielian OAK, RHP, 29.1 – Kap took a step back in 2022 with a 4.23 ERA and 17.0%/10.2% K%/BB% in 134 IP. The stuff is still good with a 94 MPH fastball and 3 secondaries led by an above average slider, but it’s hard to expect anything more than back end production: 2023 Projection: 7/4.20/1.32/120 in 140 IP

758) James Paxton BOS, LHP, 34.5 – Paxton missed all of the 2022 season, partially because he was recovering from his 2nd Tommy John surgery, and partially because he injured his lat which ended up requiring surgery. He’s now dealing with a hamstring strain that isn’t that serious but could effect his ability to ramp up by opening day. He’s barely pitched since 2019, and is merely a flier only. Don’t pay for the name value. 2023 Projection: 6/4.32/1.34/98 in 100 IP

759) Michael Lorenzen DET, RHP, 31.3 – Shoulder injury limited Lorenzen to 97.2 IP, but he was back in September and looked like himself. Himself is a below average control pitcher (10.7% BB%) with good stuff and a diverse pitch mix. The talent is there for a breakout season, but he’s likely a back end guy. 2023 Projection: 8/4.13/1.33/123 in 140 IP

760) Elvis Andrus CHW, SS, 34.7 – Andrus quietly put together a serviceable fantasy season with 17 homers and 18 steals. The 17 homers were the 2nd best mark of his career, his 4.5% Barrel% was a career high and so was his 11.9 degree launch. He continues to get slower with a well below average 26 ft/sec sprint speed, but he’s such a skilled base stealer he can still nab some bags. He seems to have a full time gig after signing with Chicago, although there a few top prospects nipping at his heels. 2023 Projection: 58/10/42/.248/.303/.389/14

761) Brandon Crawford SFG, SS, 36.2 – Crawford couldn’t come close to maintaining his career year in 2021 with his OPS dropping from .895 to .652. His stolen base totals also dropped from 11 to 1. All of his underlying numbers were within career norms, but that is kinda the problem as he has a career .722 OPS. 2021 was an aberration. 2023 Projection: 64/15/68/.247/.320/.408/4

762) J.P. Crawford SEA, SS, 28.3 – Crawford is roster filler in OBP leagues, and in 5×5 leagues he isn’t even that. He has an elite plate approach with a 13.3%/11.3% K%/BB%, and that is it. His 85.1 MPH EV is terrible and he has below average speed with a 26.8 ft/sec sprint. He hit .243 with 6 homers and 3 steals in 145 games. 2023 Projection: 72/8/51/.257/.344/.363/4

763) Carlos Santana PIT, 1B, 37.0 – Santana has seriously under performed his underlying numbers for 3 years now, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into his .352 xwOBA vs. .308 wOBA, but the same time, it does still leave some hope. He has an elite plate approach (17.4%/14.0% K%/BB%) and he hits the ball hard with a 90.7 MPH EV. Trade to Pitt at least gives him a shot of holding down a full time job, but the leash will not be long. 2023 Projection: 61/20/66/.234/.339/.415/0

764) Eric Haase DET, C/OF, 30.3 – Haase is a mediocre short term option at best. Plus power is what you are buying with a 94 MPH FB/LD EV and 17 degree launch angle. It led to 14 homers in 110 games. The plate approach is terrible with a 27.6%/6.8% K%/BB%, and he can lose his starting job at any moment as he’s not good on defense. 2023 Projection: 43/17/50/.234/.296/.438/1

765) Christian Vazquez MIN, C, 32.7 – Vazquez is a safe, low upside vet who gets the bat on the ball with a 16.2% K% and .274 BA. He doesn’t walk much with a 5.2% BB% and he doesn’t have much power with 9 homers in 119 games. 2023 Projection: 46/11/50/.267/.312/.394/3

766) Mitch Garver TEX, C, 32.2 – Garver’s season ended on July 10th after undergoing surgery on his forearm with a 6-8 month timetable. He should be good to go for 2023, but it’s never great when surgery rehab takes you right up to the start of next season, and Jonah Heim was able to nail down at least a large share of the catcher job in his absence. Garver wasn’t able to maintain his huge 2021 numbers even before the injury with a .702 OPS in 54 games, but he still hit 10 homers with a 101 wRC+. He’s a low average power hitter and he was able to bring his whiff% down 4.7 percentage points to a reasonable 25.3%, showing the hit tool isn’t hopeless. He’s been alternating up and down years for the past 4 years, and he has a career .813 OPS in 1285 PA, so he’s certainly capable of bouncing back in 2023, although playing time is an issue. 2023 Projection: 53/17/57/.242/.324/.440/1

767) Joey Wendle MIA, 2B/3B/SS, 32.11 – Wendle was used in a super utility role in 2022 and will likely be used in a similar way in 2023. He actually managed to put up a career best 13.5% K% in his age 32 year old season, and he was able to snag 12 bags as well. He’s not a bad bench piece in a 30 teamer. 2023 Projection: 51/8/49/.263/.305/.392/14

768) Isiah Kiner Falefa NYY, SS, 28.0 – Falefa is setting up for a super utility role in 2023 as this was his third year in a row with a considerably below average wRC+ (85 wRC+ in 2022). He gets the bat on the ball (13.6% K%) and has speed (22 steals in 142 games), but his weak EV (86.2 MPH) just doesn’t cut in. 2023 Projection: 51/6/42/.264/.316/.350/15

769) Rodolfo Castro PIT, 3B/2B/SS, 23.10 – I’m not sure Castro will be able to overcome his career long mediocre at best plate approach to secure a full time job. He had a 26.7%/7.9% K%/BB% with a 32.6% whiff% which led to a .280 xwOBA. He hits the ball relatively hard with a 94.2 MPH FB/LD EV, and he’ll chip in some steals, but neither the power or speed is quite big enough to make up for the plate approach. Pitt’s 2B job is wide open, but Bae, Castillo and Gonzales will all be in the mix at some point in 2023 as well. 2023 Projection: 38/13/42/.237/.304/.425/6

770) Prelander Berroa SEA, RHP, 23.0 – Berroa has a typical back end reliever profile with an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider and very poor control. He had a 2.86 ERA with a 150/63 K/BB in 100.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. His control would need to take a huge step forward to remain a starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.28/1.16/89 in 65 IP

771) Hunter Dozier KCR, OF/3B/1B, 31.7 – Dozier seems to have the 3B job in KC, but his fantasy value is on it’s last legs and they could easily end up using him in a prat time role. He’s a below average hitter who is devoid of upside in one of the worst ballparks for homers. 2023 Projection: 54/13/51/.237/.302/.395/6

772) Marco Raya MIN, RHP, 20.8 – Raya has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and 3 quality secondaries in his slider, curve and change. It led to a 3.05 ERA with a 76/23 K/BB in 65 IP at Single-A. He missed all of 2021 with shoulder fatigue, he mostly pitched in short 3-4 IP outings, and he’s not a particularly big guy at 6’1”, 170 pounds. There is a long way to go, but you can’t argue that level of stuff. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.27/152 in 150 IP

773) Cristian Mena CHW, RHP, 20.3 – Mena dominated in Single-A with a 2.68 ERA in 53.2 IP, but he got hit harder as he climbed the ladder with a 4.65 ERA in 40.2 IP at High-A and a 6.30 ERA in 10 IP at Double-A. He has average control and missed bats at every level with a 126/38 K/BB in 104.1 IP total. He has a strong frame at 6’2, 200 pounds with a low to mid 90’s fastball, plus curve, solid slider, and developing changeup. There is some real upside here, but more refinement is needed is multiple areas of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.26/178 in 165 IP

774) AJ Smith-Shawver ATL, RHP, 20.4 – AJ is a high upside, high risk arm who fires a mid to upper 90’s plus fastball to go along with a plus slider and developing changeup. He’s still pretty raw overall with below average control (13% BB%), and he got hit up at Single-A with a 5.11 ERA in 68.2 IP, but the killer stuff led to a 34.4% K%. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.94/1.34/161 in 150 IP

775) Royber Salinas OAK, RHP, 22.0 – Salinas has huge stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his slider and curve. All of his pitches rack up whiffs, but his poor control could limit him to a bullpen role. He put up a 3.55 ERA with a 175/63 K/BB in 109 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He’s still young, so I wouldn’t count out improved control down the line, but the risk is high. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.33/164 in 150 IP

776) Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.8 – Selected 49th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Wallace impressed with a strong MLB debut, slashing .293/.379/.466 with 2 homers, 8 steals, and a 23/15 K/BB in 30 games at mostly Single-A. He’s one of the youngest players in his college class and he ripped up the SEC in his 2 years playing there with 30 homers and a .907 OPS in 127 games. The dude has done nothing but hit well everywhere he’s played, including the wood bat Cape Cod league (.820 OPS), although his over the fence power hasn’t been as big with a wood bat (2 homers in 18 Cape games). He’s a safe bet to be an MLB bat, but it doesn’t look like he has the highest upside at the moment. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 67/19/75/.252/.320/.419/7

777) Tucker Toman TOR, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 77th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Toman is a switch hitter with big power potential. He hit well in his pro debut with a 119 wRC+ in 11 games at rookie ball, but his 26.1% K% and 53.8% GB% is not the best combo, albeit in a small sample. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/22/77/.242/.326/.446/5

778) Emmanuel Bonilla TOR, OF, 17.2 – Bonilla is already a big dude with major power at 6’3”, 200 pounds, but he also has a good feel to hit which should allow him to get to all of his power. He’s the Lazaro Montes of this year’s draft, but I liked Montas more last year than I do Bonilla this year. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 72/28/86/.254/.331/.502/5

779) Bubba Chandler PIT, RHP, 20.0 – Chandler plays both SS and pitcher, but his future is very clearly on the mound. He’s a great athlete with no joke stuff. He throws a plus, mid 90’s fastball with 2 secondaries that flash plus in his changeup and slider. He’s still very raw as evidenced by a 1.46 WHIP and 33/18 K/BB in 26 IP at Single-A, but he’s a very high upside ball of clay. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/3.97/1.34/157 in 150 IP

780) Kendall Graveman CHW, Closer Committee, 32.3 – Hendriks has been diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma which creates uncertainty in the White Sox bullpen. Obviously, first and foremost our thoughts and prayers go out to Hendriks and his family. It seems Graveman could be next man up, but I’m not sure it’s guaranteed, or at least guaranteed that he will be the only option. His swing and miss jumped in 2021-22 by relying slightly less on his 96.5 MPH sinker, and while he couldn’t quite keep up his 2021 27.5% K%, the 23.2% K% from 2022 is still solid. He’s good, but not elite. 2023 Projection: 4/3.46/1.24/70/20 saves in 65 IP

781) Reynaldo Lopez CHW, Setup, 29.3 – Lopez hasn’t saved a single professional game since he was 18 years old in the DSL. It’s why Graveman is likely the first option, but on talent, Lopez might pass him during the season depending on Hendriks status. He throws a 97.1 MPH plus fastball to go along with a plus slider that led to a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 IP. His control is now elite with a 4.3% BB%. The 24.8% K% is on the low side, but his 29% whiff% looks much better. Even if he doesn’t get saves, he has the chance to really explode next year in any role. 2023 Projection: 5/3.25/1.05/71/15 saves in 65 IP

782) Freddy Tarnok OAK, RHP, 24.4 – Oakland’s rotation is wide open, and they have a pitcher’s park, so Oakland is a great team to pick up fringy prospect pitchers for hopefully solid back end fantasy rotation production. He was solid in the upper levels of the minors with a 4.05 ERA and 124/44 K/BB in 106.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. A mid 90’s fastball with a potentially plus curve is what he thrives with. 2023 Projection: 3/4.47/1.38/55 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.13/1.34/142 in 150 IP

783) Mason Miller OAK, RHP, 24.3 – Miller missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury, but he was seriously impressive when he returned in August and also in the AFL. He only worked in short outings, but his fastball sat in the upper 90’s to go along with a plus slider. He had a 3.24 ERA with a 20/4 K/BB in 16.2 AFL IP. There is a lot to prove to remain a starter, namely staying healthy and developing a 3rd pitch, and he isn’t that young, but he could be terror out of the bullpen very shortly as a fallback plan. 2023 Projection: 2/3.88/1.31/27 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 6/3.73/1.29/129 in 120 IP

784) Alex Vesia LAD, Closer Committee, 27.0 – Vesia has some control problems which could put him behind some other options for the job. He had a 10.6% BB%. Everything else looks good though with a 2.15 ERA and 34.8% K%. He had a 2.25 ERA in 40 IP in 2021, so it’s now the 2nd straight year of dominance. 2023 Projection: 4/2.98/1.15/80/10 saves in 65 IP

785) Joe Mantiply ARI, Closer Committee, 32.1 – Arizona’s bullpen is terrible and Mantiply seems to be best reliever in the mix for saves. Don’t be surprised if Drey Jameson and/or Ryne Nelson figure into the mix too once the rotation gets settled. Mantiply only throws 90.4 MPH, but he keeps the ball on the ground (5.4 degree launch), he throws the ball over the plate (2.5% BB%) and his curveball and changeup are swing and miss pitches (25.% K%). 2023 Projection: 3/3.51/1.20/60/15 saves in 60 IP

786) Bryan Abreu HOU, Setup, 25.11 – Pressly is locked in until 2025, so there isn’t a clear path for Abreu to get saves in the near future, and he also has competition for next man up, but he can be a truly elite setup guy. He exploded in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA and 35.5%/10.5% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. He throws 97.2 MPH gas with an elite slider that put up a 51.3% whiff%. He went to his curveball much less, but that pitch is elite too with a .150 xwOBA. He was a strikeout machine in the minors as a starter too, so it’s very clearly not an aberration. Houston could eventually move him into the rotation, but the high walk rate, Houston’s excellent rotation depth, and his extreme 2022 success leads me to believe he’ll stay in the pen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.11/1.13/95/7 saves in 65 IP

787) AJ Minter ATL, Setup, 29.7 – Minter had an elite season with a 2.06 ERA and 34.7%/5.5% K%/BB%. Both the K% and BB% were easily career highs except for his small sample rookie year. He’s always had big stuff with a 96.6 MPH fastball, so the improved control/command seemed to take him to another level. He’s next man up in Atlanta. 2023 Projection: 4/3.02/1.11/82/7 saves in 65 IP

788) Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 26.9 – Houck looks like the odd man out of the rotation with Whitlock and Bello ramping up just fine for the regular season. He’s also closed off from the closer job with Jansen in town. It makes it hard to buy into him in 5×5 Saves leagues. He should still be good in a multi inning pen role though with a plus 94.5 MPH sinker that led to a career best 4.5 degree launch, a plus slider, and a splitter that he doesn’t go to often, but it dominated when he did with a .149 xwOBA. 2023 Projection: 5/3.55/1.17/88 in 80 IP

789) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 34.8 – Make it 3 straight lost seasons for Strasburg.  He pitched 5 innings in 2020 because of carpel tunnel syndrome which required surgery, he pitched 21.2 innings in 2021 before needing thoracic outlet surgery in late July, and then in 2022 he pitched 4.2 innings before getting shut down with a stress fracture in his rib and a nerve issue in his shoulder. He recently suffered a setback with the nerve issue and there is no timetable for a return in 2023. I’m staying far away. 2023: ???

790) Conner Capel OAK, OF, 25.10 – A former underrated Cardinals prospect who they give up for little or nothing and then ends up being a valuable piece on another team? It’s a tale as old as time, and it’s happening again. Capel was cut by the Cardinals in September. Oakland claimed him off waivers and he then almost immediately put up a 149 wRC+ in 59 MLB PA. He’s been very productive across the board at Triple-A in 2021-22. He has a moderate power/speed combo with a good feel to hit, and he very well might be Oakland’s 2nd best outfielder right now. I’d love him in a 30 teamer, but he can make an impact in shallower leagues too. 2023 Projection: 52/13/48/.259/.327/.410/11

791) Louie Varland MIN, RHP, 25.4 – Varland had his first crack at the upper minors this year and performed well with a pitching line of 3.06/1.26/146/42 in 126.1 IP at mostly Double-A (1.69 ERA with a 27/3 K/BB in 21.1 IP at Triple-A). He then got called up to the bigs in September and put up a 3.81 ERA with a 21/6 K/BB in 26 IP. The underlying numbers didn’t look quite as good with a below average 19.8% whiff% and 4.56 xERA. None of his 4 pitch mix are really standout offerings. He has the potential to be a solid MLB starter, but I’m not seeing big upside, and he’ll have to fight for a rotation spot in 2023. 2023 Projection: 5/4.37/1.34/94 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.10/1.29/160 in 160 IP

792) JP Sears OAK, LHP, 27.1 – The trade to Oakland almost immediately opened up a rotation spot for Sears, and he performed like I thought he would, which is as a back end starter. He had a pitching line of 4.69/1.48/36/18 in 48 IP. The stuff isn’t huge with a 93.2 MPH fastball and he put up a well below average 19.9% whiff%. He also got hit hard with a 90.5 MPH EV against. He can be that classic low upside Oakland pitcher with good control, solid ratios, and low strikeout rates, but he’s likely not going to be much more than that. 2023 Projection: 7/4.31/1.31/133 in 155 IP

793) Jake Burger CHW, 3B, 27.0 – Burger doesn’t seem to have a starting job, but with Jose Abreu leaving, he’s at least a step closer. He hits the ball damn hard with a 90.7 MPH EV, but that is about all he does well. He has a poor plate approach (30.6%/5.5% K%/BB%), he’s not good on defense, and he’s relatively slow. Hitting the ball hard was good enough for him to put up a 113 wRC+ in 183 PA, so if he can get playing time, there is potential for above average offensive production. 2023 Projection: 31/11/36/.245/.307/.442/0

794) Gavin Sheets CHW, OF, 26.11 – Sheets is an average hitter (100 wRC+), a below average defender, and a below average baserunner. That is not a recipe to hold down a full time job. He’s also terrible vs. lefties. I think Oscar Colas quickly takes that last OF spot, relegating Sheets to a bench bat. 2023 Projection: 36/13/44/.243/.306/.415/0

795) Stone Garrett WAS, OF, 27.5 – Garrett crushes the ball with a 92.9 MPH EV and has speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, but his plate approach is bad with a 32.1%/3.6% K%/BB% and his 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV is not as eye popping. He had an impressive MLB debut with a 131 wRC+ in 84 PA, but he’ll still have to earn at bats even with Washington’s terrible roster. 2023 Projection: 37/12/42/.232/.287/.442/8

796) Adrian Morejon SDP, LHP, 24.1 – Morejon returned from Tommy John surgery in June in a bullpen role and proved the premium stuff is back with a 96.9 MPH fastball. The control was in prime form as well with a 6.4% BB%. The numbers weren’t exactly dominant with a 4.24 ERA and 19.9% K%, but it’s more important to see the stuff and control completely return. He also went to his fastball more than ever with a 69.1% usage, so the strikeouts will rise for sure if he uses more of his secondaries in year 2 post Tommy John. I had hope he could possibly win a rotation spot, but with him going down with elbow inflammation, that is out the window. He’ll likely be in a pen role for the foreseeable future.  2023 Projection: 2/3.80/1.26/43 in 40 IP

797) LaMonte Wade SFG, 1B/OF, 29.3 – Wade’s EV tanked from 90.1 MPH to 87.7 MPH and it led to a .665 OPS. His .321 xwOBA was still above average on the back of a strong plate approach (20.3%/10.4% K%/BB%). He’s in a strong side of a platoon role at best. 2023 Projection: 48/14/47/.232/.316/.413/3

798) Harold Ramirez TBR, OF/1B, 28.7 – Ramirez earned his way into 435 PA on the back of plus contact rates (16.6% K%), the ability to hit the ball hard (88.5 MPH EV), and speed (28.1 ft/sec sprint). It led to a .300 BA. The problem is that is all he does well as he has a 4.8 degree launch, 4.4% BB%, he’s a poor defensive player, and he hasn’t run in the majors. It’s not a fantasy friendly profile and he’ll have to scratch and claw for playing time. 2023 Projection: 41/8/46/.277/.322/.410/5

799) Bobby Dalbec BOS, 1B, 27.9 – Dalbec was not able to meaningfully improve his hit tool with a .215 BA and 33.4% K%, and his power wasn’t quite as beastly as 2021 either with his EV dropping 2.1 MPH to 90.3 MPH. It lost him the 1B job, and now Casas is ready to take it over. If Casas fails though, Dalbec will be hanging around, and he could get at bats at DH too. 2023 Projection: 39/14/44/.226/.298/.440/2

800) Eric Hosmer CHC, 1B, 33.5 – Hosmer is likely a part time player and is an extremely low upside option even if he does lock in full time at bats with 56.8% GB%. 2023 Projection: 51/12/55/.270/.330/.420/4

801) Brad Miller TEX, 3B/OF, 33.6 – Miller had an awful 2022 with a .590 OPS, and his .269 xwOBA shows it wasn’t fluke, but he still hit the ball very hard with a 91.1 MPH EV. Nothing in the underlying numbers look that far off from career norms, so a bounce back seems to be in order, but he’s a platoon bat at best. 2023 Projection: 32/11/37/.225/.305/.431/3

802) Drew Romo COL, C, 21.7 – Romo is a plus defensive catcher with a good feel to hit (19.3% K%). It makes him a very good real life prospect and a very safe prospect in general. His upside is questionable though as he hit only 5 homers and put up a below average 95 wRC+ in 101 games at High-A. He’s a switch hitter who hits better vs. lefties than righties. There is certainly more power in the tank, and he’s an effective base stealer (18 for 21) even though he doesn’t have big speed, so there is definitely a real path to fantasy impact. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/17/71/.269/.337/.426/6

803) Joe Mack MIA, C, 20.3 – A hamstring injury limited Mack to just 44 games, but his season continued in the AFL, and his ultimate profile is starting to cement. He’s a high OBP, low BA slugger who put up a 26.3%/19.1% K%/BB% with 3 homers in 35 game at Single-A. He’s 6’1”, 210 pounds with a powerful lefty swing, and the dingers started to come in the AFL, slashing .230/.347/.459 with 4 homers and a 31.9%/13.9% K%/BB% in 18 games. OBP leagues will be his bread and butter, and the hit tool should improve as he gains more experience. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 59/20/64/.241/.330/.443/1

804) Alfredo Duno CIN, C, 17.3 – The 2nd best catcher in the international class, Duno is a power hitting beast in the mold of Diego Cartaya. He’s already built like a man with a strong base (3:25 mark of the video). He’s a good athlete and swings a quick bat. He’s not far off from Ethan Salas, and might have more fantasy upside especially if he stays in Cincy. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 68/27/81/.251/.326/.472/3

805) Justin Dirden HOU, OF, 25.9 – Dirden is an older prospect who is knocking on the door of the bigs in an organization whose outfield is currently far from locked down. He’s 6’3”, 209 pounds with an ugly but powerful lefty swing that led to 24 homers in 124 games split between Double-A (157 wRC+ in 92 games) and Triple-A (73 wRC+ in 32 games). He’s a good defensive player who has some speed too (12 steals). Steamer is actually projecting him for a 109 wRC+ in the majors in 2023, highlighting it’s not far fetched for him to work his way into a major role in 2023. Strikeouts are the thing that can tank it all as his K% spiked to 28.2% at Triple-A (23.1% at Double-A), but his mix of proximity, upside, and opportunity is very interesting in deeper leagues. 2023 Projection: 22/6/25/.232/.304/.407/3 Prime Projection: 52/15/56/.241/.318/.435/7

806) Osleivis Basabe TBR, 2B/3B/SS, 22.7 – Basabe has a quick righty bat that can make contact all over the zone. He was 21 years old at Double-A and looked advanced, slashing .333/.339/.461 with 0 homers, 14 steals, and a 9.7%/9.3% K%/BB% in 55 games. As you can see, he’s not a big power hitter, but his power should definitely tick up in time, and he has plus speed. He’s destined to be a super utility player with Tampa unless the power really has an explosion. In another organization I can see being higher on him, but I just don’t see a path to playing time, or the need for Tampa to trade him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/13/61/.283/.340/.418/17

807) Spencer Horwitz TOR, 1B/OF, 25.5 – Horwitz is a rock solid hitter with an excellent plate approach (19.7%/15.1% K%/BB%), but he doesn’t hit for huge power (12 homers in 114 games in the upper minors), he doesn’t have much speed, and he’s already 25 years old. His numbers also dropped off when he got to Triple-A with a 101 wRC+ in 44 games (154 wRC+ in 70 games at Double-A). 2023 Projection: 9/2/7/.249/.323/.398/0 Prime Projection: 53/14/48/.264/.337/.428/4

808) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 24.3 – Haskin continues to quietly produce with little fanfare. He put up a 126 wRC+ with 15 homers and a 21.7%/9.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A. He’s a relatively big dude at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a good feel to hit, power, and speed. Baltimore is stacked with young talent, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Haskin emerge as one of the best of the bunch. 2023 Projection: 16/5/19/.243/.303/.402/2 Prime Projection: 66/19/73/.252/.320/.434/6

809) Austin Slater SF, OF, 30.4 – Slater is mostly a short side of a platoon bat with an at least above average power/speed combo, but it comes with some strikeout issues (27.4% K%). 2022 Projection: 52/11/41/.252/.341/.420/14

810) Kyle Lewis ARI, OF, 27.9 – It’s just sad thinking about how that freak knee injury essentially ruined Lewis’ career. He has never able to get over it and is now looking like a bench power bat at best, and he hasn’t even proven he can do that. The one positive is that he looks healthy and really good this spring. Maybe, just maybe, he’ll be able to get his career back on track. 2023 Projection: 33/10/36/.236/.315/.420/3

811) David Peralta LAD, OF, 35.7 – Peralta signed on with LA but I wouldn’t count on full time playing time, and he’s already 35 years old, so both his short and long term value is questionable. He still hits the ball hard with a 90.3 MPH EV, and he significantly raised his launch in 2022 with a 15.1 degree launch, so the talent does still seem to be in here despite a .652 OPS. 2023 Projection: 43/13/52/.256/.321/.424/1

812) Tommy Pham NYM, OF, 35.1 – Pham has an enticing fantasy profile with some power (17 homers with a 92.2 MPH EV), speed (8 steals with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint), and on base ability (9% BB%), but you have to factor in some continued decline at 35 years old, and he’s likely a platoon bat in NY. 2023 Projection: 48/12/42/.240/.326/.415/8

813) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 23.4 – The 6’3”, 170 pound Cerda has no joke power with a big righty swing that does damage. He hits the ball damn hard and ended up with 24 homers in 124 games split between High-A and Double-A. The hit tool is a major issue though as the power came with a .208 BA and 33.2% K%. Cincy’s current OF is a dumpster and there really isn’t any help on the way in the minors, so Cerda is in the perfect organization and ballpark to get the most of his profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/24/75/.222/.314/.456/5

814) Roberto Campos DET, OF, 19.10 – Campos didn’t show the game power he showed in 2021 with only 5 homers and a 51.5% GB% in 112 games, but on the bright side, his contact rates improved with a pretty good 21.9% K%. It all resulted in a 103 wRC+. We know the raw power is in there, so seeing the solid contact rates is almost more encouraging. He’ll have to put it all together in 2023 to really explode up the rankings though. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/22/78/.258/.324/.432/4

815) Werner Blakely LAA, 3B, 21.1 – Blakely is extremely easy to dream on. He is a long and lean 6’3”, 185 pounds with plus power potential and plus speed. The risk is very high though with high strikeout rates, and he’s been older than optimal for the level for the past 2 years. He slashed .295/.447/.470 with 5 homers, 24 steals, and a 29.8%/19.1% K%/BB% in 55 games. He struggled hard in the AFL though with a .617 OPS and a horrific 41.1% K% in 18 games. LA has had nothing but trouble developing these high risk, high reward prospects in the recent past (Adell, Jordyn Adams, Jeremiah Jackson, Alexander Ramirez), but if Blakely figures it out, he could be a league winner. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 54/16/56/.233/.317/.433/13

816) Luis Guanipa ATL, OF, 17.4 – Guanipa is not a big guy at 5’10”, but he has a viciously quick and explosive righty swing that looks like it belongs at the top of an MLB order. He combines that with plus speed and a good feel to hit, making him a very enticing 5×5 BA fantasy player in particular. Not every player who hits for a lot of power is 6’3”, so if he can prove his power will play in pro ball, his value could quickly soar. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/18/68/.268/.335/.424/24

817) Brailer Guerrero TBR, OF, 16.9 – Power is Guerrero’s game as he’s already very powerfully built at 6’2”, 190 pounds, giving him the chance for at least plus power at peak. He’s a corner outfielder who doesn’t project for big speed, so his bat will have to hit close to it’s ceiling to lock in a full time job, but the power upside is worth the shot. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/28/85/.253/.325/.488/4

818) Frank Mozzicato KC, LHP, 19.10 – The surprise 7th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Mozzicato made his pro debut in 2022 and showed major control issues with a 16.7% BB% in 69 IP at Single-A. It led to a 4.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The fastball only sits in the low 90’s and he’s mostly still a project, but he’s a project with some upside at a projectable 6’3”, 175 pounds with good feel for a breaking ball that led to a 29.1% K%. He wasn’t a favorite of mine in his draft class, and he’s still not really a target of mine, but he certainly has plenty of appeal with much more refinement likely coming down the road. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.13/1.34/166 in 160 IP

819) Joe Perez HOU, 3B, 23.8 – Perez didn’t have a particularly bad season with a .776 OPS in 83 games at mostly Double-A, but it’s hard not to feel let down by hitting only 7 homers with a high GB%. His hit tool isn’t particularly great either, so without big power or a plus hit tool, the upside isn’t there. There is more power in the tank to unlock, and Houston is a great organization, so I don’t want to give up on him completely, but his value took a hit for me this year. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/22/76/.251/.323/.438/3

820) Tyler Black MIL, 2B, 22.8 – Black’s regular season ended in July when he fractured his scapula, but he was able to make it back for the AFL where he promptly broke his thumb after 17 games. He’s a safe, low upside bat with a plus plate approach (15.5%/15.9% K%/BB% in 64 games at High-A), but there’s not much power (4 homers), and he’s not a burner either (13 steals in 19 attempts). He’s also yet to face truly advanced competition having played in the Horizon league in college. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/14/62/.271/.330/.415/13

821) Cooper Kinney TBR, 2B/3B, 20.2 – Kinney missed all of 2022 after undergoing shoulder surgery. His hit tool got him drafted 34th overall in 2021, and he showed it off in his pro debut with a .286 BA and 19.1%/21.3% K%/BB% in 11 games. He doesn’t have big power or speed, but at 6’3”, 200 pounds, he certainly has the frame to grow into more power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.275/.347/.420/5

822) Eddinson Paulino BOS, SS/3B/2B, 20.9 – Paulino has a damn smooth lefty swing that he used to slash .266/.359/.469 with 13 homers, 27 steals, and a 19.5%/11.9% K%/BB% in 114 games at Single-A. He’s not a huge guy at 5’10”, and he doesn’t have a standout tool/skill, but he does a lot of things well. He’s a potential solid across the board type. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/18/78/.259/.327/.428/15

823) Nick Loftin KC, SS/2B/OF, 24.6 – Loftin was having a solid year at Double-A with a 100 wRC+, but things fell apart when he got to Triple-A with his K% jumping 10 percentage points to 24.4% and his wRC+ tanking to 69 in 38 games. His upside was already limited, and he’s not that young, so seeing his numbers fall off a cliff when he got promoted isn’t great. He has a long history of excellent contact rates and plus speed, and his power took a jump this year with 17 homers in 128 games, so I don’t want to put too much weight on the small sample Triple-A debut. KC’s 2B job is up for grabs, and he can play multiple positions, so he should compete for MLB at bats very early into 2023. 2023 Projection: 36/5/23/.253/.312/.388/7 Prime Projection: 76/14/59/.262/.327/.405/15

824) Jorbit Vivas LAD, 2B/3B, 22.1 – Speed is the thing holding Vivas back from big time fantasy value. He has an elite plate approach (10.2%/11.2% K%/BB%) with some pop (10 homers), leading to a 120 wRC+ in 128 games at High-A, but with only 2 steals it’s going to be hard to put up big fantasy seasons. He can still be valuable hitting atop the order and racking up runs, but the upside is limited. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/16/54/.284/.346/.427/6

825) Michael McGreevy STL, RHP, 22.9 – McGreevy is the classic arm who holds more value in very deep leagues. He doesn’t have big stuff with a low 90’s fastball, and he isn’t a strikeout pitcher with a measly 18.4% K% in 99 IP at Double-A. It led to a 4.64 ERA. He’s a back end starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.32/140 in 165 IP

826) Ben Kudrna KC, RHP, 20.4 – Kudrna didn’t exactly dominate in his pro debut with a pitching line of 3.48/1.36/61/32 in 72.1 IP at Single-A, but there is still a lot to like. He throws a low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with a filthy changeup and an above average breaking ball. A lot more refinement is needed, but the ingredients are there to turn into an impact MLB starter. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.34/161 in 165 IP

827) Simeon Woods Richardson MIN, RHP, 22.6 – Richardson bounced back from a disaster 2021 with a pitching line of 2.77/1.05/115/36 in 107.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. He got one start in the bigs to close out the season where he gave up 2 ER with a 3/2 K/BB in 5 IP. The stuff isn’t big with a 90.8 MPH fastball and he isn’t an elite control guy either. It’s a back end starter profile. 2023 Projection: 3/4.57/1.40/59 in 65 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.28/1.32/147 in 150 IP

828) Sean Burke CHW, RHP, 23.3 – Burke has beyond prototypical starter’s size at a very solid 6’6”, 230 pounds, and he uses that power to fire a mid 90’s fastball which he pairs with 2 potentially quality secondaries in his slider and curve. He’s struggled with control his entire career, although he’s not a wild child, and he also got hit up in the upper minors with a 4.81 ERA in 73 IP at Double-A (11.57 ERA in 7 IP at Triple-A). He dominated lesser competition at High-A with a 2.89 ERA in 28 IP and even in the upper minors his 106/33 K/BB in 80 IP is pretty damn good. It’s a #4-ish starter profile. 2023 Projection: 2/4.48/1.41/46 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.06/1.31/172 in 170 IP

829) Taylor Dollard SEA, RHP, 24.1 – Dollard isn’t a big velocity guy with a low 90’s fastball, but he mitigates that by going to his plus slider very often (he also throws a curve and change) and by hitting his spots with at least plus control (5.4% BB%). He put up a pitching line of 2.25/0.95/131/31 in 144 IP at Double-A. He’s not a big strikeout guy, and his .248 BABIP with a 4.66 xFIP shows he needed some luck to put up those numbers. Despite his age, he’s still relatively projectable at 6’3”, 195 pounds, so if he’s able to add velocity in his mid 20’s, he could easily beat his current back to mid rotation projection: 2023 Projection: 1/4.46/1.31/23 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.26/152 in 165 IP

830) Brandon Williamson CIN, LHP, 25.0 – Williamson was getting hyped up pretty hard last off-season, and I’m quite happy I held strong with my evaluation of him as more of a #4 type starter. He was bad in 2022 with a pitching line of 4.11/1.56/123/77 in 122.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and his control was terrible with a 13.9% BB%. He’s a skinny 6’6” lefty with a starter’s pitch mix, so even at 25 years old there is room for improvement, but it’s a back end starter’s profile right now. 2023 Projection: 2/4.55/1.42/40 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/162 in 165 IP

831) Trevor Stephan CLE, Setup, 27.4 – Stephan is competing with Karinchak for next man up in Cleveland, and considering Karinchak’s inconsistency and control issues, Stephan seems the safer bet. He throws a 96.5 MPH fastball to go along with an elite splitter (54% whiff%) and above average slider (.243 xwOBA). It led to a 2.69 ERA with a 30.7%/6.7% K%/BB% in 63.2 IP. 2023 Projection: 5/3.29/1.19/77/5 saves in 63 IP

832) Chris Martin BOS, Setup, 36.10 – Martin could be next man up in Boston. His 56 IP in 2022 was a career high, so don’t expect big reliever IP totals from him, but he put up a ridiculous 74/5 K/BB in those innings. He throws hard too with a 95.1 MPH fastball that heads up a 5 pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 3/3.41/1.04/60/7 saves in 55 IP

833) James Karinchak CLE, Setup, 27.6 – Karinchak started the year in the minors and had a 5.73 ERA with a 17/11 K/BB in 11 IP. He was better when he got called up to the majors with a 2.08 ERA and 62/21 K/BB in 39 IP, but it shows the type of inconsistency we are dealing with. His 13.1% BB% puts him in the danger zone, and it’s been worse in the past. His K upside is huge with a 38.8% K%, but I don’t love his implosion risk. The last thing I want is to see a reliever on my team get blown up for like 3 ER in consecutive outings because I’m chasing like 10 extra strikeouts. He could be an elite setup guy, but I think I’ll take my chances on passing. 2023 Projection: 3/3.48/1.19/84/5 saves in 55 IP

834) Jimmy Herget LAA, Closer Committee, 29.7 – Herget had the best season in 2022 out the closer options in LA with a 2.48 ERA in 69 IP, but he’s not so undeniably good that he’s locked into the job. His sinker is only 90.4 MPH and his 23.7% K% is above average but not great. He’ll be in the mix at the very least if Joyce doesn’t run away with the job. 2023 Projection: 4/3.43/1.19/65/9 saves in 65 IP

835) Carlos Estevez LAA, Closer Committee, 30.3 – Estevez hasn’t been very good in his career, but he has a legitimate excuse in that he had to pitch in Coors. His numbers on the road in 2022 were much better than at home. He had a 34/6 K/BB in 28.1 IP on the road vs. a 20/17 K/BB in 28.2 IP at home. He also has huge stuff with a 97.5 MPH fastball. This is a shot that Coors was killing him, and he could be near elite with a normal pitching environment. 2023 Projection: 4/3.41/1.21/66/8 saves in 60 IP

836) Michael Fulmer CHC, Closer Committee, 30.8 – Fulmer should be in the mix for saves in Chicago. He doesn’t have particularly huge stuff and he doesn’t put up big K rates. He’s a low upside option both based on performance and job security. 2023 Projection: 3/3.74/1.28/60/15 saves in 62 IP

837) Adam Ottavino NYM, Setup, 37.4 – Robertson seems to be the front runner for the closer job, but nothing has been established yet, and Ottavino is lurking if Robertson struggles. His control improved massively in 2022, bringing his BB% down to 5.5%, and it led to a (re)breakout year with a 2.06 ERA and 30.9% K%. 2023 Projection: 4/3.45/1.19/70/10 saves in 62 IP

838) Robert Suarez SDP, Setup, 32.1 – Suarez’ transition from Japan to MLB went swimmingly with a 2.27 ERA and 31.9%/11% K%/BB% in 47.2 IP. He throws 97.9 MPH gas with a plus changeup and 5 pitch mix. His walk rate is a bit high, and his 25.1% whiff% is a bit low relative to the K rate, but he’s next in line for saves and he’s damn good even if he takes a step back. 2023 Projection: 4/3.32/1.18/63/8 saves in 55 IP

839) Erik Swanson TOR, Setup, 29.7 – Swanson is next man up in Toronto. He broke out in 2022 with a 1.68 ERA and 34%/4.9% K%/BB% in 53.2 IP. He’s not a flamethrower with a 93.6 MPH fastball, and none of his 3 pitches eclipse a 30.3% whiff%, so he might have trouble keeping up that level of dominance, but he should still be very good. 2023 Projection: 3/3.09/1.05/69/8 saves in 60 IP

840) Taylor Rogers MIN, Setup, 32.4 – Seems to be next in line in San Francisco. Rogers had a rough 2022 with a 4.76 ERA in 64.1 IP. He was definitely unlucky, and the 30.7%/6.9% K%/BB% looks good, but it wasn’t all luck with a 4.11 xERA. His BB% was a 5 year high and his fastball velocity dropped 1.4 MPH to 94.3 MPH. He should certainly bounce back in 2023, but I’m not sure it’s a foregone conclusion. 2023 Projection: 3/3.39/1.18/85/6 saves in 65 IP

841) Rafael Montero HOU, Setup, 32.5 – Montero racked up 14 saves with Houston in 2022, so it seems he is next man up, although that is not a lock. His 96.4 MPH fastball is his most used pitch and it is also his best swing and miss pitch with a 35.1% whiff%. His overall 28.2% whiff% and 8.5% BB% aren’t exactly elite numbers, and 2022 was by far the best year of his career (2.37 ERA in 68.1 IP). I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a step back in 2023. 2023 Projection: 4/3.52/1.20/71/5 saves in 65 IP

842) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 23.0 – Povich is likely a back end starter with solid control of a low 90’s fastball and a starter’s pitch mix. He had a 4.50 ERA in 114 IP split between High-A and Double-A, but his 148/39 K/BB looked much better. He also got destroyed at Double-A with a 6.94 ERA in 23.1 IP. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.32/156 in 160 IP

843) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 24.7 – Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery in August and will likely miss all of 2023. His stuff is worth the wait with a plus mid 90’s fastball and 2 potentially plus breaking balls. He had a 3.00 ERA with a 41/11 K/BB in 27 IP at High-A before going down the injury. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 8/3.88/1.27/148 in 140 IP

844) Cole Wilcox TBR, RHP, 23.9 – Wilcox returned in August from Tommy John surgery and while his stuff was down a bit with his fastball in the low 90’s, he pitched well with a 3.94 ERA and 24/4 K/BB in 16 IP split between rookie and Single-A. It’s nice to see the improved control stick because he had struggled with it his first 2 years of college. If his mid 90’s fastball returns next season, he could be a big riser. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 8/4.09/1.26/136 in 140 IP

845) Matt Bush MIL, Setup, 37.2 – Bush is likely next man up in Milwaukee unless they decide to use Ashby as a true late inning reliever, which is possible with the Wade Miley signing. He throws a 97.3 MPH fastball to go along with a plus curve that led to a 3.47 ERA and 30.3%/7.4% K%/BB% in 59.2 IP. 2023 Projection: 3/3.40/1.16/70/5 saves in 58 IP

846) Yosver Zulueta TOR, RHP, 25.2 – It seems highly likely that Zulueta will end up in the bullpen, but he can be an elite pen option. He throws an upper 90’s fastball with a plus slider, and it struck out everyone in sight with 85 K’s in 55.2 IP spread across all the levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). He mostly pitched in short outings and he has major control issues (along with an injury history), which leaves me to believe he’s a pen arm, but it’s not set in stone yet. He’s a high risk, high reward arm who still has a wide range of outcomes despite his relatively advanced age. 2023 Projection: 3/3.99/1.34/61 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.48/1.19/89 in 65 IP

847) Connor Phillips CIN, RHP, 21.11 – Phillips has major bullpen risk, but he can be an elite back end guy even if he does end up there. He has big time stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average curve. It led to 150 K’s in 109.2 IP split between High-A and Double-A. The bullpen risk comes from his poor control (66 walks) and weak changeup. He also performed much worse at Double-A (4.93 ERA in 45.2 IP) than at High-A (2.95 ERA in 64 IP). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.43/1.19/83/25 saves in 65 IP

848) JR Ritchie ATL, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 35th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Ritchie is a relatively safe high school arm with good control of a solid 3 pitch mix (low to mid 90’s heat, slider, change). He showed his advanced pitchability with a strong pro debut, putting up a pitching line of 1.88/0.97/14/5 in 14.1 IP at rookie and High-A. It’s likely a back end profile with mid rotation upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.03/1.27/150 in 160 IP

849) Darell Hernaiz BAL, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Hernaiz is a solid across the board type with a quick righty swing and good feel to hit. He proved too advanced for the lower minors, slashing .298/.364/.476 with 11 homers, 31 steals, and a 16.5%/7.6% K%/BB% in 92 games split between Single-A and High-A, before meeting his match at Double-A with a 4 wRC+ in 13 games. There isn’t huge raw power and he’s not a true burner, so the upside isn’t huge. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/15/62/.265/.316/.414/12

850) Eddys Leonard LAD, SS, 22.5 – Coming off a 22 homer season in 107 games in 2021, Leonard’s power took a step back in 2022 with 15 homers in 127 games at High-A. His plate approach is solid, but nothing to write home about with a 21%/8% K%/BB%, and he doesn’t have much speed with 4 steals. He doesn’t have huge raw power to tap into either at 5’11”, 195 pounds. He still put up a 119 wRC+ at an age appropriate level, so the guy can play, but there isn’t big fantasy upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 67/20/72/.261/.328/.434/5

851) Lizandro Rodriguez KCR, 2B, 20.5 – Rodriguez had complete across the board destruction of the DSL in 2021 (177 wRC+), then did the same in stateside rookie ball this year (159 wRC+), before finally getting to a more age appropriate level to close out the year at Single-A where he continued to perform well, slashing .290/.389/.436 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 15.3%/11.1% K%/BB% in 18 games. He’s a switch hitter with a whip quick swing, especially from the right side. He’s more slappy from the left. He’s not a particularly big guy at 5’11”, but there is plenty of room to tack on mass, and he’s displayed an advanced plate approach with plus contact rates and speed at every level. ETA: 79/18/69/.272/.336/.418/12

852) Yohendrick Pinango CHC, OF, 20.11 – Pinango’s power took a step forward in 2022 with 13 homers in 115 games at High-A (5 homers in 108 games in 2021). He combines that with a good feel to hit (17.8% K%) and some speed (14 steals). It’s a solid across the board profile, and he has a pretty electric lefty swing that gives him upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/18/74/.267/.322/.421/11

853) Wilderd Patino ARI, OF, 21.9 – Plus speed and baserunning in his Patino’s game with 67 steals in 76 attempts in 94 games split between Single-A and High-A. His power ticked up this year with 9 homers, and his 6’1” frame has the ability to add more. The problem is that the hit tool and plate approach are both poor. He had a 26.1%/6.5% K%/BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 57/10/41/.243/.305/.395/18

854) Caleb Kilian CHC, RHP, 25.10 – Kilian’s plus control disappeared this year. He walked 13 batters in 100.1 IP in 2021 and then walked 59 batters in 106.2 IP this year. He was also horrific in the majors with a 10.32 ERA and 9/12 K/BB in 11.1 IP. The stuff is good 94.6 MPH 4-seamer, plus cutter, and a groundball inducing sinker, but without the plus control, he’s a back end starter at best. He looked good early in spring, so there is a hope a bounce back is on tap. 2023 Projection: 2/4.59/1.39/38 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.28/1.32/145 in 150 IP

855) Jairo Pomares SFG, OF, 22.5 – Pomares was able to become a more patient hitter in 2022 with a career best 9.3% BB% in 95 games at High-A, but it hurt every other part of his game. He had a terrible 32.9% K% and his power dropped back with 14 homers. Unlike Matos who scrapped being patient, Pomares stuck with it and it might have started to click in his final 30 games, slashing .336/.419/.527 with 5 homers and a 29.5%/11.4% K%/BB%. The strikeout rate is still too high to really fly him up the rankings, but we have to expect some growing pains from young kids trying to make improvements on the fly. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/22/76/.246/.314/.431/2

856) Clayton Beeter NYY, RHP, 24.6 – Beeter has huge stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and two bat missing secondaries in his slider and curve, but he has some legitimate control issues. He put up a 14.3% BB% at Double-A with LA. After getting traded to the Yanks though, he brought his BB% down to 10.6%, and it resulted in straight dominance with a 2.13 ERA and 41/11 K/BB in 25.1 IP. If the control gains hold, he has a chance to be a high K, mid rotation starter, but if they don’t, he can be a weapon out of the bullpen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 7/3.71/1.25/135 in 120 IP

857) Porter Hodge CHC, RHP, 22.1 – Hodge had a breakout year in the lower minors with a 2.63 ERA and 141/55 K/BB in 109.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. His velocity ticked up into the mid 90’s which he combines with a potentially plus slider and developing changeup. He has an innings eater build at 6’4”, 230 pounds and while his control isn’t great, he’s generally around the plate. He’s definitely underrated. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/3.96/1.31/155 in 150 IP

858) Tom Harrington PIT, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 36th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Harrington put up a sterling 30%/4.9% BB% with a 2.53 ERA in 92.2 IP in the Big South on the back of excellent control of starter’s pitch mix (low 90’s heat, slider, change, curve). He didn’t come from a major conference, so it’s easier to pound the strike zone against inferior competition, and he doesn’t have the huge fastball, which is why I’m a little hesitant of buying too hard into the K/BB numbers. Back end starter is a safe projection, but there is certainly room for more. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.11/1.25/152 in 160 IP

859) Drew Thorpe NYY, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 61st in the 2022 MLB Draft, Thorpe is a bit of a junk baller type, going to his at least plus changeup and above average slider as much as possible. His low 90’s fastball induces grounders, and he has plus control of his entire arsenal. He looks the part at a rock solid 6’4”, 190 pounds, and he handled his business in the Big West with a 2.32 ERA and 149/25 K/BB in 104.2 IP. The only thing missing is the big fastball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.06/1.26/154 in 160 IP

860) Adam Mazur SDP, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Mazur is a pretty skinny 6’2”, 180 pounds with a very athletic and repeatable righty delivery. He commands the mound with a 5 pitch mix led by a plus slider, to go along with a low to mid 90’s 4 seamer, a low 90’s 2 seamer, curve, and changeup. His control/command took a big step forward this year and it led to a breakout season in the Big 12 with a pitching line of 3.07/0.96/98/30. Back end starter might be his most likely outcome, but there is certainly projection and upside for more. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.10/1.29/152 in 160 IP

861) Luis Morales OAK, RHP, 20.6 – Morales has a lot of traits you look for in a potential top of the rotation starter. He’s 6’3”, 176 pounds with an athletic delivery, mid to upper 90’s fastball, and 4 pitch mix. The secondaries still need plenty of refinement, and while he dominated the U18 Cuba League, he put up a 5.95 ERA with a 58/30 K/BB in the CNS (Cuba) in 2021, so there is a lot of risk here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.09/1.34/158 in 150 IP

862) Jake Bennett WAS, LHP, 22.4 – Selected 45th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Bennett is a 6’6”, 234 pound lefty who pounds the zone with a solid 3 pitch mix (low 90’s fastball, slider, change). His numbers don’t jump out at your in the Big 12 with a 3.69 ERA, but his 133/22 K/BB in 117 IP looks much better. There are some things about him that remind me of David Peterson, but that isn’t a comp, and Peterson was much more dominant in college. It’s a back end starter profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/4.14/1.31/153 in 170 IP

863) Henry Bolte OAK, OF, 18.11, 6’3”, 195 – Here’s what I wrote about Bolte right after the draft, “Selected 56th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Bolte is the type of prospect whose value is going to swing wildly in either direction based on how much contact he makes in his pro debut. He has a plus power/speed combo with a swing that definitely looks the part when he makes contact, but he has plenty of swing and miss in his game. Sometimes these types of high school prospects come into pro ball and show the hit tool question were overstated, and other times they strikeout 40% of the time. We’ll see what Bolte can do when he gets the chance.” … Bolte got his chance  and he was one of the the types to strikeout 40% of the time. Actually, 48.7% of the time to be exact. He put up a 70 wRC+ with 0 homers and 0 steals in 11 games in rookie ball. It’s a very small sample, and the upside is still big, but so is the risk. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 62/18/69/.228/.304/.431/10

864) Emmanuel Rivera ARI, 3B, 26.9 – Rivera is a bench bat right now, but he’s actually a little interesting if he does work his way into more playing time. He hits it hard with a 90.4 MPH EV and he gets the bat on the ball with a reasonable 23.1% K%. His .311 xwOBA is about average in his 458 PA career. 2023 Projection: 41/12/44/.252/.308/.427/2

865) Nick Madrigal CHC, 2B, 26.1 – Madrigal has 2 barrels in his 552 PA MLB career. That is kinda wild. He’s also only attempted 10 steals, and he’s not all that fast either with an about average 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed. Maybe he starts running more out of nowhere, we’ve certainly seen it before, but that isn’t something you should bet on. Elite contact rates are all he has going for him with a 11.8% K%, but that isn’t enough to provide fantasy value when you contribute literally 0 in power and very little in steals. He seems to be setting us a utility infielder. 2023 Projection: 45/3/30/.281/.326/.361/8

866) Jack Leftwich CLE, RHP, 24.6 – Leftwich is 6’4”, 220 pounds with some eye popping K/BB numbers in the low minors. He put up a 2.72 ERA with a 140/24 K/BB in 109.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He was much older than the competition, and while the stuff is good it’s not really truly standout. He’s likely a back end guy with some mid rotation upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.28/148 in 150 IP

867) Joey Cantillo CLE, LHP, 23.4 – Cantillo’s season ended in late July with a shoulder injury, but he was in the midst of breaking out before going down with the injury with a 1.93 ERA and 87/28 K/BB in 60.2 IP at Double-A. His changeup is his go to pitch which he combines with a low 90’s fastball and solid curve. It’s a back end profile with injury risk. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.33/151 in 150 IP

868) Victor Lizarraga SDP, RHP, 19.3 – The 6’3”, 180 pound Lizarraga was an 18 year old in full season ball and put up a pitching line of 3.43/1.28/95/34 in 94.1 IP at Single-A. He signed for $1 million in the 2021 international class, so the pedigree is there. He throws a low 90’s fastball with the potential for 2 quality secondaries in his curve and change. He’s needs more refinement all around and could use a few extra MPH on the fastball, but his excellent numbers against older competition shows the upside if he can refine his overall game as he matures. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.19/1.31/144 in 155 IP

869) Max Wagner BAL, 3B, 21.8 – Selected 42nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Wagner went insane in the ACC with 27 homers in 58 games, and he did it with a strong 19.7%/17.4% K%/BB%. It was good for a 1.348 OPS. His MLB debut didn’t go quite as well with only 1 homer and a .739 OPS in 19 games at mostly Single-A, and he doesn’t jump off the screen at 6’0”, 215 pounds, so I would be careful to expect those kind of homer totals in pro ball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 65/18/71/.245/.316/.437/2

870) Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 26.1 – Burdick was a below average hitter at Triple-A with a 97 wRC+ and 27.9% K% as a 25 year old. He made his MLB debut and his K% jumped to 34.3%, but he was able to show off the power/speed combo with a 90 MPH EV and 28.1 ft/sec sprint. Miami’s OF is currently filled with unproven and declining players, and they have no stud OF prospects in the pipeline, so you don’t have to squint all that hard to see a path to playing time. He’s not the worst target in a deep league as an upside play. 2023 Projection: 23/7/25/.218/.298/.392/4 Prime Projection: 46/13/47/.227/.309/.413/6

871) Samad Taylor KCR, 2B/OF, 24.9 – Taylor seems to be trending towards being a bench piece. He has a below average hit tool with high strikeout rates and not nearly enough power to make up for it. He put up a mediocre 101 wRC+ in 70 games at Triple-A. Plus speed is his game, stealing 23 bags, and he gets on base with high walk rates, but his power will need to tick up to hold down a full time job. 2023 Projection: 15/2/8/.219/.289/.366/5 Prime Projection: 55/12/47/.234/.308/.391/16

872) Robert Perez Jr. SEA, 1B, 22.9 – Perez has a little Gary Sheffield in his game with a little bat wiggle from a powerful 6’1” frame. His big time raw power was put to good use by smacking 27 homers in 127 games split between Single-A and High-A. He hit better at High-A, improving his plate approach with a strong 22.2%/15% K%/BB%, leading to a 193 wRC+ in 35 games. He’s had strikeout and plate approach issues throughout his career, and has yet to face advanced competition, but the power is very real. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 43/16/49/.232/.316/.447/3

873) Mairoshendrick Martinus LAD, SS/3B, 18.2 – Martinus is a Dodgers prospect with a projectable 6’3”, 161 pound frame, great athleticism, solid production (110 wRC+ in 52 DSL games), and a disgusting righty swing in a good way. He jacked 7 homers with 10 steals and a 22.3%/9% K%/BB%. He’s still raw but the upside is not hard to spot. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/23/76/.242/.315/.440/9

874) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B/1B, 22.10 – The lefty Binelas wants to hit the ball hard. Check out this excellent interview by David Laurila over on Fangraphs about how much emphasis he puts on exit velocity. It certainly shows as Binelas jacked 25 homers in 113 games split between High-A and Double-A. Like Kavadas, the problem is that his hit tool fell apart when he got to Double-A with a .166 BA and 32.4% K% in 55 games, and he also doesn’t have much defensive value. Part time power bat might be the most likely outcome. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/51/.238/.323/.430/2

875) Hao Yu Lee PHI, SS/3B/2B, 20.2 – Lee had a strong season in the lower minors, slashing .284/.386/.438 with 9 homers, 14 steals, and a 67/43 K/BB in 79 games at mostly Single-A, but he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to get excited. He was only 19 years old, but he’s not that projectable at 5’10”, 190 pounds, and he’s not a burner either. It’s a low upside profile with risk too due to the lack of power upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/15/62/.253/.323/.417/6

876) Felix Valerio MIL, 2B, 22.3 – Valerio had a big 1st half of the season at Double-A, but he dropped off a cliff in the 2nd half with a .181 BA and .517 OPS in his final 54 games. He ended up with a poor 78 wRC+ in 113 games. He still showed a plus plate approach (16.7%/10% K%/BB%) with base stealing skills (30 steals), but he’s going to need to impact the ball better to get the most out of his skills, and he’s not projectable at a decently thick 5’7”. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/13/57/.255/.321/.403/18

877) Pedro Ramirez CHC, 2B, 19.0 – Ramirez was a hit machine in DSL in 2021 with a .359 BA, and he not only showed the hit tool will transfer stateside with a .329 BA and 16%/10.4% K%/BB%, but the power ticked up too with 4 homers in 43 games. He got a small taste of Single-A and had a 13% K% in 10 games. The guy can hit. He’s only 5’9”, 165 pounds, so power isn’t likely to be a huge part of his game, but he has speed (15 steals), giving him a classic top of the order profile. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/14/62/.276/.337/.412/16

878) Gerarldo Quintero ATL, 2B/3B, 21.6 – Quintero is a switch hitter with a calm and easy energy at the dish. He has a mature plate approach (17.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with plus speed (34 steals), and a little pop (8 homers) in 113 games split between Single-A and High-A. He’s only 5’8”, 155 pounds, so his lack of power could sink him, but it’s a solid top of the order profile. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/12/53/.254/.321/.407/16

879) Thomas Saggese TEX, 2B/3B, 21.0 – Saggese has done nothing but hit since getting drafted in the 5th round in 2020. He put up 127 wRC+ in 73 games at Single-A in 2021 and then put up a 127 wRC+ in 98 games at High-A in 2022. He got a 5 game cup of coffee at Double-A and put up a 1.266 OPS. He’s not super imposing at 5’11”, 175 pounds, but he has a quick and controlled righty swing, and he looks like a pro in the box. There are some plate approach issues as he went from having a 29.5%/14.6% K%/BB% in 2021 to a 22.4%/6.9% K%/BB% in 2022, so he’s still trying to figure out how to attack pro pitching. It seems like the more aggressive approach is winning out right now. There isn’t a standout tool or skill, but the guy definitely looks like a player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 61/16/66/.253/.318/.426/7

880) Korey Lee HOU, C, 24.8 – Yanier Diaz seemed to pull ahead of Lee for Houston’s catcher of the future job, but Lee is certainly still in the mix. He had a poor year at Triple-A with a 28.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 90 wRC+ in 104 games, and then made his MLB debut and put up a 34.6%/3.8% K%/BB%, 83.6 MPH EV and .432 OPS in 26 PA. He jacked 25 homers at Triple-A, so his season wasn’t all bad, and he played in a poor hitter’s park which tanked his home stats (.667 OPS at home vs. .861 on the road). He also has some speed with 12 stolen bases and a 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s in a scrum for playing time, and he’s probably a few years away from a breakout regardless. 2023 Projection: 21/7/24/.218/.287/.396/2 Prime Projection: 56/19/64/.232/.310/.432/4

881) Nikau Pouaka-Grego PHI, 2B/3B, 18.7 – Pouaka-Grego was 17 years old playing in stateside rookie ball and he excelled, slashing .301/.424/.466 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 16/16 K/BB in 35 games. He has a smooth lefty uppercut swing that is made to hit flyballs (36.1% GB%), and he combines that with an advanced plate approach. He’s not a big raw power or speed guy, so the upside might not be huge. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.273/.344/.432/6

882) Juan Brito CLE, 2B, 21.6 – Brito was Cleveland’s return for Nolan Jones, so they obviously like something they see. And what they see is his plus hit tool and advanced plate approach. He slashed .286/.407/.470 with 11 homers, 17 steals, and a 14.3%/15.7% K%/BB% in 107 games at Single-A. He doesn’t have big power or speed, but I think there’s enough room to fill out his 5’11” frame to get to average power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/17/64/.272/.335/.426/6

883) Gabriel Rincones PHI, OF, 22.1 – Selected 93rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rincones is 6’4″, 225 pounds with a quick lefty swing that produces all fields power. He destroyed Conference USA, slashing .346/.451/.658 with 19 homers, 2 steals, and a 51/42 K/BB in 58 games. He hasn’t faced the best competition and there is some swing and miss in his game, but the power is for real. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/18/63/.244/.322/.448/2

884) Willy Vasquez TBR, 3B, 21.7 – Vasquez didn’t have a particularly good season at Single-A with a 99 wRC+ and mediocre 25.6%/7.3% K%/BB%, but there are some exciting tools here that jump off the screen. He has a powerful righty swing that makes tons of hard contact, and he’s fast with 25 steals in 28 attempts. His 48.1% GB% is too high to take full advantage of his power, but with his speed it might not make sense to raise it too much. There is still a lot of refinement needed and it was not a strong statistical year, but there is fantasy upside here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/15/66/.253/.315/.417/16

885) Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 22.4 – Selected 44th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Barco was in the midst of an excellent season in the SEC with a 2.50 ERA and 69/11 K/BB in 50.1 IP before going down with Tommy John surgery in May. It will likely keep him out until the 2nd half of 2023 at the least. He was hyped coming out of high school because of his projectable 6’4” frame with an almost sidearm lefty delivery, but he’s yet to add any big velocity, sitting in the low 90’s. His slider and change are both good, but not necessarily elite pitches. If the fastball ticks up in pro ball he will be a major problem, but the low velocity and surgery keeps me from going higher on him. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.13/1.30/158 in 160 IP

886) Parker Messick CLE, LHP, 22.6 – Selected 54th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Messick’s stuff doesn’t really standout, but his K/BB numbers do with a 144/18 K/BB in 98.2 IP in the ACC. He has a fan favorite build, delivery, and demeaner on the mound at a thick 6’0”, 225 pounds with a funky lefty delivery and excitable attitude. His changeup is his best pitch which he combines with a low 90’s fastball and an effective slider. It’s a back end profile, but there’s something about him you have to love, and Cleveland is a great organization to bet on. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.10/1.22/153 in 150 IP

887) Peyton Pallette CHW, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Pallette had his presumed Junior year breakout wiped out with Tommy John surgery, but he should be good to go for 2023. When healthy, he throws a curveball that he has on a string. That’s his money maker. He combines that with a fastball that consistently gets in the mid 90’s and a developing changeup. He has a very short track record in college with only 61.2 IP (3.79 ERA with a 70/23 K/BB), and there is obviously injury risk as well, but those conditions also create a buying opportunity if you want to take a risk on some unknown upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 8/3.95/1.27/142 in 145 IP

888) Tyrone Taylor MIL, OF, 29.2 – Taylor was given a pretty decent shot in 2022 with 405 PA, and while the underlying data is still enticing, he proved he’s just an average player. He put up a 102 wRC+, and despite above average speed, he only stole 3 bags. Milwaukee has a ton of OF talent that is knocking on the MLB door, making it very likely Taylor is just a good bench player for them. He’ll also miss the first month of the season with an elbow strain 2023 Projection: 36/11/41/.243/.304/.437/4

889) Nick Biddison LAD, OF, 22.8 – Selected 135th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, leave it to the Dodgers to draft another guy who had a strong pro debut. Biddison slashed .276/.371/.455 with 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 22.4%/11.2% K%/BB% in 31 games at Single-A. Granted, Rancho Cucamonga juices up offense, but he ripped up the ACC too, slashing .351/.434/.598 with 14 homers, 21 steals, and a 48/33 K/BB in 59 games. He played literally all over the field as a true super utility player, which will likely be his ultimate role on the MLB level. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 44/10/44/.246/.318/.418/7

890) Wes Kath CHW, 3B, 20.8 – Kath is 6’3”, 200 pounds with a smooth lefty swing and plus power, but his hit tool is a major problem. He hit .238 with a 33% K% and 13 homers in 99 games at Single-A. A 33% K% isn’t hopeless, and he was still just 19 years old, so there is big offensive potential if he can take a stop forward with his hit tool in 2023. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 63/20/67/.236/.321/.446/3

891) Moises Gomez STL, OF, 24.7 – It’s hard to ignore a guy who cranked 39 homers in the upper minors and was more or less age appropriate for the levels, but a 34.7% K% is equally hard to ignore. Gomez is a corner OF bat without a clear path to playing time and major hit tool risk. The huge power season puts him back on the map, but he’s trending towards a bench power bat. 2023 Projection: 9/3/11/.211/.290/.417/1 Prime Projection: 42/15/47/.226/.305/.437/3

892) Denzer Guzman LAA, SS, 19.2 – Guzman signed for $2 million in the 2020/21 international signing class, and while he hasn’t gone full breakout yet, he’s still displaying the skills that made him a high priced signing He’s 6’1”, 180 pounds with a smooth and powerful righty swing that creates tons of flyballs (44.3% FB%). He has the potential for plus power at peak, although he’s still a long way off from that with only 3 homers in 52 games at stateside rookie ball. He hit well regardless with a 109 wRC+, and the hit tool is solid with a .286 BA and 20.9%/7.1% K%/BB%. I’m not necessarily targeting him, but at the very least I will be keeping a close eye on him in 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/21/78/.266/.331/.438/6

893) Nelson Rada LAA, OF, 17.8 – Rada was a 16 year old in pro ball, which is kinda wild when you think about it, but not only that, he dominated with a 148 wRC+. He slashed .311/.446/.439 with 1 homer, 27 steals, and a 12.6%/12.6% K%/BB% in 50 games. He doesn’t have huge raw power at 5’10” 160 pounds with high groundball rates, but he has a top of the order profile with plus speed, hit, and patience. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 78/14/63/.274/.338/.405/20

894) Jacob Reimer NYM, 3B, 19.1 – Selected 119th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Reimer is already physically mature at 6’2”, 205 pounds, and he has the requisite plus raw power to go with the frame. But he’s not just a slugger, he’s also a good athlete with a good feel to hit. He had a strong 7 game pro debut at rookie ball, slashing .261/.414/.478 with 1 homer and a 10.3%/20.7% K%/BB%. He’s an intriguing late round pick in deep leagues. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/20/73/.263/.327/.431/5

895) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS, 18.3 – Tejeda was one of the top 17 year old performers in the DSL, slashing .289/.463/.493 with 3 homers, 11 steals, and a 13.3%/21.8% K%/BB% in 46 games. It was good for a 162 wRC+. He’s a good athlete with a whip quick righty swing and mature plate approach. He’s only 5’11”, so he’s not a obvious projection type, but there real tools here. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 76/18/71/.273/.339/.427/10

896) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 18.5 – Bergolla was a favorite of mine from the 2022 international class and he was a hit machine in his pro debut with a .380 BA and 3.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 24 games in the DSL. It was good for a 150 wRC+. He didn’t hit a single homer and he only stole 2 bags, so I’m a little concerned about the upside, but he’s one of the safest bats coming out of the DSL. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.281/.343/.414/16

897) Cristofer Torin ARI, SS/2B, 17.10 – Torin is a similar age to some of the incoming international class, and he already handled his business in the DSL with a 153 wRC+. He makes elite contact (9.9%), with a mature plate approach (18.3% BB%), and plus speed (21 steals in 50 games). He didn’t hit a single homer and he doesn’t project for big power, but he’s one of the better plus hit/speed combos coming out of the DSL. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/13/59/.273/.337/.408/19

898) Hendry Chivilli MIN, SS, 17.7 – When diving into the unknown of international prospects, I’ll lean into upside as much as possible, as all of these prospects have risk, so why not shoot for the moon. Chivilli has that scout’s dream frame at 6’3”, 165 pounds with plus speed and plus bat speed. If it all comes together, he’ll be an elite prospect. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.251/.323/.436/14

899) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 22.3 – Ramos has beastly raw power that he used to jack out 25 homers in 123 games between Single-A and High-A, but he let his swing and miss get away from him a bit after getting to the more age appropriate High-A with a 32.7% K%. He’s yet to face upper minors pitching, and he’s not all that young, so he’s a high risk power bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 55/17/61/.236/.312/.436/4

900) Hector Rodriguez CIN, OF, 19.1 – Rodriguez is a little guy at 5’8” with a plus hit tool. He hit .359 with a 7.1% K% in rookie ball. There is little to no power projection (3 homers in 49 total games), and he’s not that fast, so it’s not a high upside profile. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/13/63/.278/.332/.411/7

901) Ariel Almonte CIN, OF, 19.4 – Almonte has good size at 6’1”, 170 pounds (he’s heavier than that now) with a damn sweet lefty swing that put up a 141 wRC+ with 6 homers at stateside rookie ball. The 29.9% K% is too high, but he can be a no joke power bat if he can bring that K% down at higher levels. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/22/71/.238/.315/.436/4

902) Yeiner Fernandez LAD, C/2B, 20.7 – Fernandez has that Jose Altuve look to him at 5’9”, 170 pounds with a swing that looks much bigger than his build. He slashed .292/.383/.430 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 13.0%/10.9% K%/BB% in 89 games at Single-A. He definitely looks pretty electric on the field, but he doesn’t have big raw power and he’s not a base stealer, so the fantasy upside is capped. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 44/9/38/.266/.323/.416/4

903) Angel Mateo TBR, OF, 18.2 – Mateo had a strong pro debut in the DSL with 7 homers, 10 steals, and a 17.1%/12.9% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s still raw but he has a projectable 6’2” frame with loads of talent. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 68/18/68/.247/.319/.424/10

904) Samuel Munoz LAD, OF, 18.7 – Munoz was a high priced international signing in 2022 with that classic tall and projectable frame at 6’3”, 190 pounds. He performed well in his pro debut in the DSL, slashing .347/.429/.491 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and a 16.2%/12.4% K%/BB% in 47 games. Still a long way to go, but he set the foundation for a future breakout. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 74/23/79/.272/.331/.442/7

905) Daniel Montesino SDP, 1B/OF, 19.2 – Montesino missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he was looking like one of the more exciting DSL prospects before going under the knife. He got a million bucks in 2021’s international class and then slashed .316/.444/.489 with 4 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.8%/17.7% K%/BB% in 56 games in the DSL. He could have been knocking on the door of the Top 100 with a strong 2022 performance stateside. He’s a bat first prospect with the potential to hit for both power and average at peak. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/24/78/.254/.331/.450/4

906) Johnny Cueto MIA, RHP, 37.1 – Cueto has been training to be that wily vet starter with diminished stuff his entire career. He could write the book on the art of pitching. He has plus control (5.1% BB%) of a 6 pitch mix that led to a 3.35 ERA and a 102/33 K/BB in 158.1 IP. He won’t rack up K’s, but he can still be an effective back end fantasy starter. 2023 Projection: 8/4.05/1.28/120 in 150 IP

907) Rich Hill PIT, LHP, 42.1 – Hill keeps on trucking, landing a job with Pitt, but his days of being a low IP ace are long done. His K% was down to 20.7% and he had a 4.27 ERA in 124.1 IP. He’s just a regular back end starter now. 2023 Projection: 7/4.11/1.28/115 in 130 IP

908) Madison Bumgarner ARI, LHP, 33.8 – Bumgarner has been terrible for the last years with a 6.48 ERA, 4.67 ERA, and 4.88 ERA. The underlying numbers looks just as a bad. Don’t buy the name value. 2023 Projection: 7/4.60/1.40/125 in 150 IP

909) J.T. Brubaker PIT, RHP, 29.4 – Brubaker was an interesting flier the past 2 years, but it doesn’t look like even a mini breakout is happening. He had his 3rd poor year 4.69 ERA in 144 IP. The 147/54 K/BB gives some hope, and his 27.3% whiff% is enticing, but it just doesn’t look like it is going to come together. 2023 Projection: 6/4.35/1.37/151 in 150 IP

910) Yusei Kikuchi TOR, LHP, 31.9 – Kikuchi has looked good in his first 2 outings of Spring, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. He’s done it by throwing his 4 seamer much less, which is a good idea because his 4-seamer got rocked last year with a .423 xwOBA. He was horrible in 2022 with a 5.19 ERA, which is why he was originally left off this list, but it’s not like he’s devoid of upside with a 31% whiff%. I’m still not going after him, and 2 spring outings don’t mean much, but he does deserve to crack this list. 2023 Projection: 7/4.55/1.39/140 in 130 IP

911) Kyle Gibson BAL, RHP, 35.5 – 2022 was the 2nd year in a row Gibson put up over a 5.00 ERA, which is not great as he firmly enters his mid 30’s. His sinker was down to 91.6 MPH and he’s always been a below average K guy. He’s an aging back end starter. 2023 Projection: 8/4.23/1.32/140 in 160 IP

912) Zach Plesac CLE, RHP, 28.2 – Plesac has the 5th starter job right now but he can lose it any moment with so many strong pitching prospects knocking on the door. He has plus control and that is just about it. 2023 Projection: 5/4.38/1.31/75 in 100 IP

913) Brad Keller KCR, RHP, 27.8 – Keller throws hard and keeps the ball on the ground, but he has poor control and doesn’t miss bats. 2023 Projection: 7/4.47/1.44/113 in 150 IP

914) Jonathan Loaisiga NYY, Setup, 28.5 – Loaisiga wasn’t all the good last year with a 4.13 ERA and an 18.2%/9.4% K%/BB% in 48 IP, but his stuff is still legit with a 98 MPH fastball and 2 plus swing and miss secondaries in his curve and change. He’s also elite at inducing weak contact with a 83.9 MPH EV against. He could be next in line for saves at the moment, and Holmes doesn’t exactly have a long track record of dominance, so who knows how things could shake out during the season. 2023 Projection: 4/3.51/1.23/60/9 saves in 60 IP

915) John Schreiber BOS, Setup, 29.1 – Schreiber might not even be next in line for saves, but he’s good enough to roster regardless. He had a 2.22 ERA with a 28.8%/7.4% K%/BB% and 8 saves in 65 IP. He does it with 3 above average to plus pitches in his slider, 4-seamer, and sinker. 2023 Projection: 4/3.33/1.17/75/5 saves in 65 IP

916) Hector Neris HOU, Setup, 33.9 – Neris uses an elite splitter (52.4% whiff%) to rack up K’s, and his control improved in 2022 which resulted in a strong 30%/6.5% K%/BB% in 65.1 IP. The 3.72 ERA is a bit high, but the 3.29 xERA looks much better. There is competition for the next man up in Houston, but he has closing experience and would certainly be an option. 2023 Projection: 4/3.58/1.16/79/4 saves in 65 IP

917) Joe Jimenez ATL, Setup, 28.3 – Jimenez had a breakout season with a 3.49 ERA and 33.3%/5.6% K%/BB% in 56.2 IP. He’s always had big strikeout stuff so this type of season was always in him. I wouldn’t pay up for a career year, but as a cheap upside setup option on a good team, I like him. 2023 Projection: 3/3.57/1.18/78/4 saves in 60 IP

918) Sam Hentges CLE, Setup, 26.8 – Henges might be 4th in line for saves, but he’s good enough to own regardless. He throws a mid 90’s 4-seamer and sinker to go along with 2 plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. It led to a 2.32 ERA and 29.4%/7.8% K%/BB% in 62 IP. 2023 Projection: 4/3.38/1.13/74 in 65 IP

919) Adbert Alzolay CHC, Setup, 28.1 – Alzolay missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but he looked impressive when he returned in September in a multi inning pen role. He had a 3.38 ERA with a 19/2 K/BB in 13.1 IP. He throws a 94.8 MPH fastball and his slider was silly elite with a 70.4% whiff%. I liked taking a shot on Alzolay last year before getting hurt, and while I think his starter background could prevent him from grabbing a share of the closer role, I’m expecting him to excel in a multi inning setup role. 2023 Projection: 4/3.61/1.16/81 in 70 IP

920) Dylan Floro MIA, Closer Committee, 32.3 – Floro settled in as Miami’s main closer by the end of the season, notching 7 saves in September (10 overall). He’s not a big velocity (92.6 MPH sinker) or a big strikeout guy (21.8% K%), and Miami announced they are going with a fluid bullpen, so he is really worse than a worst case scenario option. The AJ Puk trade also hurts his chances. 2023 Projection: 3/3.34/1.20/57/13 saves in 60 IP

921) Cionel Perez BAL, Setup, 26.11 – Perez seems to be next in line in Baltimore, and with Bautista working his way back from some off-season knee and shoulder issues, that could open things up for Perez (although Bautista seems to be on track for opening day). He throws gas with a 97 MPH fastball, but the slider really wasn’t all that great last year with a decent 30.7% whiff% and .293 xwOBA. His 1.41 ERA was much much better than his 3.62 xERA, and his 23.6%/8.6% K%/BB% isn’t that great. The slider has been better in the past, and the stuff is obviously nasty, so the skills are there for a next level breakout, but it hasn’t happened yet. 2023 Projection: 4/3.33/1.22/62/7 saves in 60 IP

922) Ryan Tepera LAA, Closer Committee, 35.5 – Tepera could be in the saves mix. His K% tanked from 30.7% in 2021 to 20.3% in 2022, but his 30.7% whiff% shows the guy can still miss bats. He’s not a flamethrower with a 92.6 MPH fastball, but his plus slider is his most used pitch and he has a legitimate 4 pitch mix. 2023 Projection: 4/3.68/1.15/60/4 saves in 60 IP

923) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5 – It’s all about the nasty breaking ball for Vasquez, which he combines with a few fastballs that sit in the low to mid 90’s and a lesser used change. He pitched decently at Double-A with a 3.90 ERA and 24.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 115.1 IP. He’ll need to improve his command in order to stay in the rotation, but that breaking ball could be a lethal weapon out of the bullpen especially if the fastball can play up in shorter stints. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/3.83/1.32/122 in 120 IP

924) Miguel Ullola HOU, RHP, 20.10 – Ullola has a beastly mid 90’s fastball that racked up K’s at Single-A with 38.3% K% in 72 IP, but his control is horrible with a 17.6% BB%. The secondaries are still very raw too. He’s likely a reliever, but he’s still very young, and the upside is high if he can refine his game. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.36/1.19/87 in 65 IP

925) Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 23.9 – Henry has done nothing but pitch well in his college and pro career. It’s been 4 years of dominance which culminated with him putting up a 1.71 ERA and 34/11 K/BB in 31.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A this year. The stuff is nasty with 3 potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, curve, and changeup. Unfortunately it all came screeching to a halt when he went down with a shoulder injury. He ended up needing the dreaded thoracic outlet surgery in August. It’s a very serious surgery and there is no guarantee he ever gets back to previous levels. I don’t want to completely give up on him, but the massive risk prevents me from going any higher. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 7/4.14/1.34/107 in 110 IP

926) Hedbert Perez MIL, OF, 20.0 – Perez was not able to carry over his success from rookie ball into full season ball. He put up a 29.9%/6.8% K%/BB% with a 82 wRC+ in 105 games. He did crack 15 homers, showing off the big power, but there is a lot of refinement needed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 42/15/51/.236/.303/.433/7

927) Kameron Misner TBR, OF, 25.3 – Misner was 24 years old at Double-A with a 30.4% K%. He’s an elite athlete at 6’4”, 218 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, plus patience, and plus defense, but betting on him winning a full time job in the near future doesn’t seem wise. He’ll be a depth piece for Tampa early in his career and will have to earn every AB he gets. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 48/13/44/.228/.311/.421/11

928) Heriberto Hernandez TBR, OF, 23.4 – Hernandez’ K rate has started to get out of control as he climbs the minor league ladder, and he was only at High-A as a 22 year old. He put up a a 31.4% K%. He still has power and patience with 24 homers and a 13.6% BB%, but defense and K’s are working against him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/20/64/.243/.325/.443/3

929) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 23.9 – Abreu gets on base (.399 OBP in 129 games at Double-A), hits it hard (19 homers), hits it in the air (over 40% FB%) and has speed (31 steals. The K rate is high at 26.4% and the hit tool is weak with a .247 BA, but he has a lefty swing made to do damage. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 48/14/44/.232/.319/.422/7

930) Jace Avina MIL, OF, 19.10 – Avina is jam packed with potential at 6’2”, 180 pounds with a powerful righty swing that he used to crank 15 homers in 64 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. The swing looks a bit unrefined to me, and he struck out a ton at both levels with a 34.7% K%, so the risk is sky high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 44/16/49/.228/.302/.437/3

931) Nathan Hickey BOS, C, 23.4 – Hickey was a strong offensive performer in the SEC in 2021 with a .958 OPS, and he brought that offensive prowess with him to pro ball in 2022, slashing .263/.414/.522 with 16 homers and a 23.4%/19.2% K%/BB% in 75 games split between Single-A and High-A. He was old for the levels, and he might not stick behind he plate, but it’s a bat first profile that could make a fantasy impact if he finds the playing time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 46/15/51/.244/.321/.437/1

932) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 24.3 – Dingler struggled majorly with contact once he hit pro ball, and it hit a crescendo in 2022 with a 31.9% K% and .238 BA in 107 games at Double-A. His power isn’t big enough to make up for it either with 14 homers, and he’ll be entering a terrible ballpark for homers in Detroit. Everything still seems to setup for him to be their catcher of the future, but it doesn’t look like he will produce impact fantasy numbers. 2023 Projection: 12/4/12/.214/.288/.385/0 Prime Projection: 48/15/53/.230/.308/.402/1

933) Jordan Groshans MIA, 3B/SS, 23.4 – Groshans just never developed any power, and in fact, his power actually regressed with only 4 homers in 120 games across all levels including the majors. He has plus contact rates with a mature plate approach, but neither of those rise to elite levels, and he’s also slow. It’s not the profile of an MLB starter, but at only 23 years old, there is still hope he can add more power at 6’3”, 200 pounds. 2023 Projection: 36/4/28/.252/.310/.354/1

934) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 22.10 – Contreras signing with St. Louis makes Herrera a back up for the foreseeable future. He hit 6 homers with a 50.8% GB% in 65 games at Triple-A and then put up a 85.2 MPH EV with 0 barrels in 22 PA in his MLB debut. He has a strong plate approach with above average contact rates and plus walk rates throughout his minor league career, so while he could be a solid real life hitter, he’s not a fantasy target. 2023 Projection: 6/1/8/.242/.308/.388/0 Prime Projection: 61/16/65/.265/.337/.421/2

935) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 18.9 – Basallo is a 6’3”, 180 pound beast who hit for power in 2021 in the DSL, and then did the same in stateside rookie ball with 6 homers and a 20.6% K% in 43 games. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, and while he was more physically mature than his competition, he was very young for the level, starting the year at 17 years old. He definitely has the potential to be in the next wave of hyped catcher prospects. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 57/19/64/.260/.323/.442/2

936) Ryan Noda OAK, 1B, 27.0 – Noda is your classic Quad-A slugger, which fits perfectly with Oakland’s Quad-A team. They selected him in the Rule 5 Draft, which means Oakland has to keep him on the MLB roster all year if they don’t want to send him back to LA. He cracked 25 homers with a 28.2%/16% K%/BB% in 135 games at Triple-A. He also has some speed, swiping 20 bags. He’ll still need to compete for at bats with Seth Brown and Jesus Aguilar in town, but he’s worth a flier now that he is with Oakland. 2023 Projection: 33/11/36/.228/.307/.413/4

937) Nicky Lopez KCR, 3B/2B/SS, 28.1 – Lopez has 1439 career PA under his belt of being a very bad hitter. He hit 0 homers in 480 PA in 2022. He’s is a utility infielder who gets the bat on the ball with a 13.1% K% and is a good baserunner with 13 steals, but his career .271 xwOBA is just not going to get the job done. 2023 Projection: 42/3/28/.250/.308/.342/11

938) Jacob Miller MIA, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 46th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Miller’s 2 inning outing at Single-A in his pro debut was in a Statcast stadium. His 4-seamer and sinker averaged 94 MPH, which he combined with 2 potentially plus breaking balls in his 85.6 MPH slider and 79.4 MPH curve. The fastballs both got hit hard while the breaking balls induced weak contact. He also has a developing changeup in his bag of tricks. He has a starter’s build at 6’2”, 180 and is in a great organization for pitching. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.03/1.29/162 in 160 IP

939) Cutter Coffey BOS, SS, 18.10 – Selected 41st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Coffey is an excellent overall athlete at 6’2”, 190 pounds who is a legit prospect as both a hitter and pitcher, although his future is likely as a hitter. He has a quick and explosive righty swing with natural loft that could produce plus power at peak, but the hit tool needs to take a big step forward to get there. He struggled in his pro debut with a 53 wRC+ and 27.5% K% in 40 PA which showed the rawness still present in his game. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 72/22/76/.243/.319/.438/8

940) Gabriel Arias CLE, SS, 23.1 – Arias continues to be a talented but raw prospect. He hits the ball hard (88.8 MPH EV) and he has speed (28 ft/sec sprint), but his plate approach is mediocre at best. He struggled at Triple-A with a 89 wRC+ and 24.1%/7.7% K%/BB%, and then hit .192 in his 57 PA MLB debut. He’s a good defensive player, which should give him a role in the majors, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a full time role anytime soon. Maybe he can begin to refine his game in his mid 20’s. 2023 Projection: 13/4/16/.225/.292/.394/3 Prime Projection: 51/16/58/.238/.309/.426/5

941) Jacob Amaya MIA, SS, 24.7 – Amaya started the year on fire (1.134 OPS in first 32 games) and ended the season on fire (1.008 OPS in final 31 games), but was ice cold in between (.543 OPS in middle 70 games). He’s had a plus plate approach his entire career (21.6%/14.3% K%/BB% in 133 games split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022), and his power took a step forward this year with 17 dingers. He’s 6’0”, 180 pounds with a big righty swing that looks pretty dangerous to my eye, and while he doesn’t steal a ton, he’s a good athlete. 2023 Projection: 9/3/11/.242/.314/.401/1 Prime Projection: 69/16/69/.258/.332/.423/6

942) Blaze Alexander ARI, SS, 23.10 – Alexander went full breakout in 2022. He made big hit tool improvements, bringing his K% down from 32.4% at High-A in 2021 to 25.1% at mostly Double-A in 2022. His power also ticked up with 17 homers in 98 games. I lean towards him ending up a utility infielder with a below average hit tool and average power, but he has that talent to beat that projection. 2023 Projection: Prime Projection: 51/14/56/.242/.316/.418/8

943) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 20.9 – Bonaci’s plate approach stood out in full season ball with a 18%/18% K%/BB% which led to a 125 wRC+. He hit only only 6 homers in 108 games, and he’s not a big guy at 5’10”, but he takes big hacks that is sure to get the most of his raw power. He’s not super fast, but stealing 28 bags in 34 attempts shows he has some base stealing skills. He might top out as a utility infielder, but between the plate approach, swing, and base stealing, there seems to be a few paths to fantasy success. ETA: 2025 Prime Prime Projection: 74/16/66/.265/.340/.418/10

944) Josh H. Smith TEX, 3B/OF, 25.8 – Smith will compete for at bats with a bunch of young Texas players. He had a weak pro debut with a 68 wRC+ in 253 PA, but it’s a positive sign that his mature plate approach transferred with a 19.8%/11.1% K%/BB%. He has speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint, and his 87 MPH EV isn’t hopelessly low. If he can hit the ball just a tick or two harder, there is a fantasy friendly skillset in here. 2023 Projection: 36/7/31/.237/.322/.378/11

945) Omar Narvaez NYM, C, 31.2 – Narvaez is a safe, low upside vet who has a strong plate approach (19.3%/9.3% K%/BB%) and is a good defensive player. His EV is bad with a 84.7 MPH EV and he has a high launch angle with a 17.7 degree launch, so there is potential for his batting average to tank, which is what happened in 2022 with a .206 BA. He should be the Mets starting catcher to break camp, but Alzarez is not going to be far behind. 2023 Projection: 38/8/41/.242/.325/.388/0

946) Jack Brannigan PIT, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 83rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Brannigan is a high risk, high reward college bat. He’s an athletic player with a plus power/speed combo, but there is still a rawness to his game. His pro debut showed both sides of the coin, slashing .211/.330/.337 with 3 homers (47.7% FB%), 6 steals, and a 25%/13.4% K%/BB% in 26 games at Single-A. If he can improve the hit tool (famous last works), there is fantasy friendly upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 42/11/44/.232/.302/.418/9

947) Victor Acosta CIN, SS, 18.10 – Acosta couldn’t build on his standout DSL performance in 2021. His OPS dropped to .707 and he went 5 for 12 on the bases in 42 games stateside. It wasn’t a complete disaster with a 22.4%/12.7% K%/BB% that led to a slightly above average wRC+, but his value took a big hit. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 70/14/61/.253/.324/.410/11

948) Angel Genao CLE, SS, 18.10 – Genao followed up a strong pro debut in 2021 in the DSL (133 wRC+) with another strong showing stateside in 2022, slashing .322/.394/.416 with 2 homers, 6 steals, and a 23.4%/9.4% K%/BB% in 38 games. He’s not a big dude at 5’9”, 150 pounds, and he’s not a speed guy, but he signed for over one million dollars in January 2021 and has done nothing but produce in pro ball. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/14/62/.267/.329/.413/12

949) Ignacio Alvarez ATL, 3B/SS, 20.0 – Selected 155th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Alvarez had an impressive pro debut, slashing .287/.451/.394 with 1 homer, 8 steals, and a 12.3%/21.3% K%/BB% in 30 games split between rookie and Single-A. This was coming off a big year in Junior College where he hit .370 with 5 homers and 9 steals in 48 games. He doesn’t jump off the screen, but he’s not small at 6’0”, 190 pounds, and he looks like a player out there. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 56/13/51/.261/.332/.421/8

950) Luke Adams MIL, 3B, 18.11 – Selected 372nd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Adams is 6’4”, 210 pounds with plus raw power, a good feel to hit, and good athleticism. He dominated in his pro debut, slashing .375/.512/.563 with 1 homer, 9 steals, and a 19.5%/17.1% K%/BB% in 11 games in rookie ball. He’s not a great defensive player, putting a lot of pressure on the bat, but there is legitimate upside here. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 44/14/47/.252/.325/.432/6

951) Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was a 23 year old at High-A to start the year, so his 133 wRC+ in 73 games wasn’t necessarily super exciting, but he actually took it up a notch when he got promoted to Double-A, slashing .298/.359/.606 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 14.3%/6.7% K%/BB% in 25 games. He’s already pretty built up at a thick 6’0” with a powerful righty swing, and he combines that with plus speed and an improving hit tool. He’s already on the older side and he’s struggled with his hit tool in the past, so he’s likely a bench bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 54/14/51/.243/.317/.424/8

952) Daiverson Gutierrez NYM, C, 17.7 – The MLB Draft was pretty weak with catcher talent this year, but the international class makes up for it with a strong class. While I don’t love buying 16/17 year old catchers, if you want upside in first year player drafts, this where you will have to find it. Gutierrez is an excellent athlete with a good feel to hit and emerging power. The upside is there to be one of the top catcher prospects in the game if he produces. ETA: 2029 Prime Projection: 66/20/73/.263/.331/.440/4

953) Hunter Bishop SFG, OF, 24.9 – Bishop got his career back on track after a shoulder injury wiped out almost his entire 2021 with 13 homers and 20 steals in 85 games at High-A, but he was old for the level and it came with a 32.7%/8.7% K%/BB%. He’s an elite athlete at 6’5”, 210 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, so he’s setting up to be a late career breakout type. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 48/14/51/.232/.306/.421/11

954) Kevin Newman CIN, SS/2B, 29.8 – Barrero’s shockingly miserable season has left the door open for Newman. He has plus contact rates (15.5% K%) with above average speed (27.9 ft/sec sprint), and that is it. He had a 1.6% Barrel% and 85.8 MPH EV. He could lose the job at any moment. 2023 Projection: 49/6/41/.262/.305/.382/9

955) Maximo Acosta TEX, SS/2B, 20.5 – Acosta’s international prospect hype proved to be overblown, but he at least re-established some of his prospect value after a poor 2021 pro debut that eventually led to thoracic outlet surgery. He held his own in full season ball, slashing .262/.341/.361 with 4 homers, 44 steals, and a 19.1%/8.8% K%/BB% in 107 games. The hit tool is solid but far from elite, there isn’t a ton of power projection, and he’s not a speedster. Without a standout offensive tool, there isn’t a ton to get excited about for fantasy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 71/15/65/.258/.323/.416/15

956) Carlos Colmenarez TBR, SS, 19.5 – Colmenarez hasn’t lived up to his international signing hype, but he managed to put together a decent season in stateside rookie ball with a 120 wRC+ in 35 games. He hit only 1 homer with a 51.2% GB%, and he struck out 26.8% of the time, so it’s not really a season to get excited about. He still has the electric swing and above average across the board tools, but it seems a lot of his value is still hanging on where he got ranked when he was 16 years old. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 68/16/72/.251/.322/.424/14

957) Mason Black SFG, RHP, 23.4 – Black’s a bit old for the lower minors, but he handled his business there with a 3.21 ERA and 136/36 K/BB in 112 IP split between Single-A and High-A. He also has very good stuff with a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and developing changeup. The profile would work excellent as a reliever, but he definitely still has a solid chance of remaining a starter. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.10/1.30/141 in 150 IP

958) Nelson Quiroz LAD, C, 21.5 – Quiroz is a sneaky very deep league catcher target. He missed most of 2022 with injury, but he smashed in the 12 games he did play in with 4 homers, a 10%/12% K%/BB%, and 1.079 OPS at Single-A. He’s a switch hitter who always had a good feel to hit, and while he doesn’t have huge power, it certainly seems to have taken a step forward this year. Here is an article with video about him showing out in a home run derby in October. He’s also in a great organization to develop his talent. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 33/9/35/.258/.324/.412/1

959) Chandler Simpson TBR, SS/2B, 22.4 – Selected 70th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Simpson’s game is elite speed with elite contact rates. He hit .434 with 27 steals and a 16/31 K/BB in 47 games in the ACC, but he doesn’t hit the ball hard at all with only 1 homer in his 208 game career across all levels. He’s a skinny 6’2”, 170 pounds, so the power should hopefully tick up in time, but it’s not likely to ever be a big part of his game. He’s a light hitting speed play. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 66/7/49/.256/.318/.389/19

960) Ryan Cermak TBR, OF, 21.10 – Selected 71st overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Cermak is 6’1”, 205 pounds with an aggressive righty swing that jacked out 19 homers in 48 games in the Missouri Valley Conference. He also hit 2 homers in 7 games in his pro debut in rookie ball. He combines that power with above average speed, but the hit tool is a bit of a question mark. He’s had some swing and miss issues in college and then put up a 37.5%/4.2% K%/BB% in his small sample pro debut. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 61/18/65/.239/.311/.428/8

961) Nick Ahmed ARI, SS, 33.0 – A shoulder injury which required surgery limited Ahmed to just 17 games, but Perdomo was so bad in his absence that he very well may win back the starting job. He’s a worst case scenario option even in 30 team leagues with no power, no speed, and a bad BA. I’m not even sure he should crack this list even if he does win the starting job. 2023 Projection: 39/7/36/.235/.293/.399/4

962) Kevin Kiermaier TOR, OF, 32.11 – Kiermaier is a plus CF who seems to have at least a large share of the Toronto CF job. He’s a bad hitter, both average and power, and he underwent season ending hip surgery in July, so I’m not sure you can even count on his plus speed anymore. He’s only on the list because he has a job. 2023 Projection: 46/7/32/.232/.296/.370/8

963) Adam Frazier BAL, 2B/OF, 31.3 – Frazier will be in some kind of playing rotation in Baltimore, but it’s unclear how everything will shake out. He’s an elite contact guy (12.1% K%) with almost no pop (3 homers), and a handful of steals (11 steals). He’s basically an option in 30 teamers only right now. 2023 Projection: 46/4/31/.268/.328/.386/8

964) David Fletcher LAA, SS/2B, 28.10 – I wouldn’t be surprised if Fletcher takes back the 2B job from Rengifo assuming he’s fully healthy. He was bothered by a hip/groin injury all season that ended up requiring surgery, limiting him to 61 games. He’s a low upside option with elite contact rates and no power, and the odds of him running a ton coming off the leg surgeries probably aren’t great. 2023 Projection: 43/4/35/.270/.318/.355/7

965) Diego Castillo ARI, SS/2B/OF, 25.5 – Castillo’s elite contact rates completely disappeared at Triple-A and the majors. He not not only struggled in the majors with a 26.5%/4.9% K%/BB% and 73 wRC+ in 283 PA, but he struggled at Triple-A too with a 21.9%/9.3% K%/BB% and 88 wRC+ in 35 games. It wasn’t all bad though as he hit the ball damn hard with an 89.1/93 MPH AVG/FB EV, which is encouraging if he’s able to improve his plate approach. He’s in pure flier territory right now and isn’t the type I would be holding. If he wins playing time, I can see taking a shot on him at that point. 2023 Projection: 34/12/36/.241/.308/.419/3

966) Kevin Made CHC, SS, 20.7 – Made had a strong showing at Single-A with a 123 wRC+ in 57 games, but his numbers dropped off a cliff at High-A with a 50 wRC+ in 37 games. He has a solid plate approach with about average power potential, so considering he’s only attempted 6 steals in his 152 game career, the upside isn’t that high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/71/.262/.328/.421/5

967) Bryce Elder ATL, RHP, 23.10 – Elder is likely the 7th starter in Atlanta. He relies heavily on a 90.7 MPH sinker to go along with an above average slider, and a decent cutter and change. His control isn’t great (10.1% BB%) but he can keep the ball on the ground (8.8 degree launch). It’s a back end profile. 2023 Projection: 4/4.23/1.32/65 in 75 IP

968) Drew Rom BAL, LHP, 23.4 – Rom is a plus deception lefty with a low 90’s fastball and two bat missing secondaries in his slider and change. The 4.43 ERA in 120 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A isn’t great, but the 144/47 K/BB looks much better, and he’s knocking on the door of the bigs in an organization who has a weak MLB rotation. He’s a better option the deeper the league is. 2023 Projection: 2/4.55/1.41/37 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.33/148 in 150 IP

969) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 21.8 – Jones fires an upper 90’s fastball which gives his loads of upside, but everything else is still raw with below average control and inconsistent secondaries. He had a mediocre year at High-A with a 4.62 ERA and 26.7%/9.6% K%/BB% in 122.2 IP. It’s likely a reliever profile, but he’s still young and the upside is high. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.41/1.18/76 in 65 IP

970) Jackson Rutledge WAS, RHP, 24.0 – Betting on Rutledge is a bet on stuff and size. He’s 6’8”, 250 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider. He’s struggled with the control in the past, but it was good this year with a 6.9% BB%, although everything else was underwhelming with a 4.90 ERA and 23.4% K% in 97.1 IP at Single-A. It’s likely he ends up in the bullpen considering his age, but I wouldn’t rule out a starter role with the improved control. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 7/3.92/1.32/123 in 120 IP

971) Norge Vera CHW, RHP, 22.10 – Vera didn’t have the breakout we were hoping for, but he still showed the filthy stuff that got us so excited last off-season. A lat strain delayed the start of his season until June and shoulder stiffness knocked out a few weeks of his season in August. He just never really found his rhythm on the mound, only pitching short outings and showing major control issues with a 7.9 BB/9 in 35.1 IP spread across levels (A, A+, AA). He still had a 3.31 ERA with a 13.2 K/9 because his mid to upper 90’s fastball, which he relies on heavily, is a devastating pitch. He combines that with a potentially plus slider, average curve and a much lesser used changeup. He’s a still a project, but a high upside one. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.10/1.32/168 in 160 IP

972) Andrew Abbott CIN, LHP, 23.10 – Abbott destroyed High-A with a 0.67 ERA in 27 IP, but he struggled when he got to Double-A with a 4.75 ERA in 91 IP. His curveball is the moneymaker and it racks up strikeouts, leading a 159/44 K/BB in 118 total IP. He combines that with a low to mid 90’s fastball and lesser used changeup. He’ll need to either add another tick or two on his fastball or improve his control to be more than a back end guy. He’s also headed for a terrible ballpark. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.34/167 in 160 IP

973) Dahian Santos TOR, RHP, 20.1 – Santos put up some eye popping K numbers in the lower minors with 142 K’s in 86 IP on the back of a plus slider and potentially plus change. He only throws in the low 90’s, he’s not a big guy, and he has control issues, so there are plenty of red flags, but he’s only 19 and you gotta love those K numbers. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 7/4.19/1.33/133 in 120 IP

974) River Ryan LAD, RHP, 24.7 – Ryan started to focus solely on pitching in 2022 and immediately saw a jump in stuff with his fastball sitting in the mid 90’s. It led to a 2.45 ERA with a 70/21 K/BB in 47.2 IP at Single-A and High-A. The secondaries are legit too, but he has control issues and is 24 years old with a career high of 51.2 IP. I lean towards him ending up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 4/3.63/1.21/74 in 65 IP

975) Won-Bin Cho STL, OF, 19.8 – Cho put up a 118 wRC+ on the back of a 20% BB% in 26 games in rookie ball, but he hit only 1 homer with a 27% K%. He’s a projectable 6’3” with plus power potential, but there is a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 57/17/61/.246/.328/.430/5

976) Carlos Sanchez CIN, 3B/OF, 18.3 – Sanchez was a DSL standout, slashing .355/.505/.442 with 2 homers, 14 steals, and a 15.4%/22% K%/BB%. It was good for a 169 wRC+. There isn’t much info out there on him, but I don’t care what level you’re playing at, if you get on base more than 50% of the time, that is impressive. He’s at least worth being on your radar to see what he can do stateside. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/14/54/.267/.334/.409/8

977) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9 – Serna pitched well in the DSL in 2021, and he kept it going in stateside rookie ball in 2022 with a 1.96 ERA and 56/17 K/BB in 41.1 IP. A plus changeup is his best pitch which he combines with low 90’s heat, and 2 effective breaking balls in his slider and curve. He’s not a huge guy at 5’11”, 162 pounds, so while he’s not a huge projection guy, there is certainly room to add more velocity. He’s generally around the plate without any major control issues. He has mid rotation upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.06/1.27/150 in 150 IP

978) Tanner Schobel MIN, SS/2B, 21.10 – Selected 68th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Schobel is a relatively little guy at 5’10”, 170 pounds who showed big power in college with 19 homers in 59 ACC games, but it didn’t translate to pro ball with only 1 homer in 32 games at mostly Single-A. He has a strong plate approach and speed, so he’s not totally reliant on the power, but if you can’t trust the power, he might be trending more towards a utility role. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 55/14/52/.253/.324/.421/8

979) Alex Freeland LAD, SS, 21.7 – Selected 105th overall in the 2022 Draft, Freeland was drafted by the Dodgers, and if you’re going to take a shot on a late round dart throw, why not align yourself with LA. And true to form, Freeland had a big time pro debut with 3 homers and a 152 wRC+ in 8 games at Single-A, albeit with a 30.6%/5.6% K%/BB%. He came from the non major American Athletic Conference, and while he’s hit well in his career, he hasn’t really blown the doors off, although you have to take into account he was very young for his class. He’s a switch hitter with some pop at 6’2”, 200 pounds. This is a bet on the Dodgers as much as anything. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 51/15/57/.243/.315/.432/4

980) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 17.7 – Let’s go with bloodlines on this one as Cespedes is half brothers with Yeonis Cespedes. Like most bloodline prospects, Cespedes is advanced at the dish with a potentially plus hit tool. He’s only 5’11”, 150 pounds, so while he doesn’t have huge power projection, he can put a charge into the ball. He’s not a burner either. The upside might not be huge, but why not take a dart throw on a Cespedes at this point in the rankings. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/18/69/.273/.338/.424/11

981) Dyan Jorge COL, SS, 20.0 – Jorge hit well in his pro debut in the DSL, slashing .320/.402/.452 with 4 homers, 13 steals, and a 35/22 K/BB in 53 games, but he was 19 years old, so you have to take his strong statistical year with a grain of salt. Regardless, he’s a projectable, tooled up player who signed for $2.8 million in last years international class. He’s more someone to keep an eye on in 2023 than someone to go after this off-season. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 63/15/61/.243/.313/.415/11

982) Jake Alu WAS, OF, 26.0 – Alu is old for a prospect, he has a solid but not standout hit tool/plate approach, he doesn’t have big power, and he doesn’t have big speed. As you can tell, I’m not the biggest Alu fan, but you can’t deny the good numbers he put up in the upper minors (.871 OPS with 20 homers and 15 steals), and you can’t deny there is opportunity in Washington. I look at him as more of a good flier in deeper leagues, rather than anybody to really go after. 2023 Projection: 28/5/25/.243/.305/.397/4

983) Greg Jones TBR, SS, 25.1 – Jones stole 37 bases in 79 games at Double-A, and that is where the positives stop. He hit 8 homers with a 52.7% GB% and a 35.8%/7.5% K%/BB%. I’m not sure he should even crack this list, but maybe he can be a speed guy who steals like 15 bags as a part time player. Or maybe something clicks with his hit tool at some point. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 36/7/31/.225/.293/.390/14

984) Christopher Paciolla CHC, 2B/3B/SS, 19.0 – Selected 86th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Paciolla is a projectable 6’2”, 185 pounds with a lightning quick and powerful righty swing. He’s still raw with a 66 wRC+ and 28%/8% K%/BB% in his 7 game pro debut, so you’re mostly buying a ball of power hitting clay here. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 64/20/69/.241/.315/.430/5

985) Ricardo Cabrera CIN, SS, 18.5 – Coming off signing for $2.7 million, Cabrera didn’t exactly stand out in the DSL with only 1 homer, 5 steals, and a mediocre 22.2%/7.2% K%/BB% in 45 games, but it was still good for an above average 108 wRC+. I don’t think it’s a good idea to give too long of a leash on hyped international prospects who struggle their first year or two in pro ball, but I also don’t have to pull the rip cord completely too early. Gotta give them at least a year to get acclimated. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 73/20/74/.258/.324/.434/11

986) Diego Benitez ATL, SS, 18.4 – Benitez was one of the top 2022 international signings ($2.5 million), so I want to give him one more year before really jumping ship. He didn’t perform well in the DSL with a 92 wRC+, 2 homers, and 3 steals in 43 games, but it’s not like he was completely overmatched with a 20.3%/15.9% K%/BB%. The poor year was probably a combo of bad luck and not being strong enough yet. Let’s see what he can do when he starts to fill out more. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 71/22/75/.255/.327/.444/8

987) Welbyn Francisca CLE, SS, 16.11 – Francisca is not a huge projection guy at 5’11”, 150 pounds, but he’s known for his precocious feel for hitting with some speed. Taking 16 year old hit tool guys is not my favorite thing to do, but putting a power cap on a 16 year old seems silly, so if the power ticks up he could be a dangerous all around fantasy player. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 79/14/63/.277/.343/410/17

988) Derniche Valdez CHC, SS, 17.0 – Valdez doesn’t have the projectability of some of the other top international prospects at 6’1”, 180, but he ain’t small and he has a powerful righty swing that gets the most out of his raw power. He probably doesn’t have elite prospect upside even if it all clicks, but he can be a damn good across the board player. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 74/20/76/.255/.326/.428/13

989) Josh Kasevich TOR, SS/3B, 22.3 – Selected 60th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Kasevich is a plus hit tool guy who put up a 16/24 K/BB in 61 games in the Pac 12, and then proved the elite contact rates will transfer to pro ball with a 7.4%/9.0% K%/BB% in 25 games at Single-A. He didn’t hit a single homer with a 59.6% GB% or steal a single bag (he’s not a great baserunner) in those pro games, which shows the power/speed combo just isn’t there. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds, so hopefully he tries to lift the ball a bit more to make the most of his raw power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/14/64/.268/.324/.416/7

990) Cade Hunter CIN, C, 22.4 – Selected 153rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Hunter makes for an interesting late round pick considering how weak the draft was at catcher. He’s 6’2”, 200 pounds with a very quick lefty swing that should produce plus power at peak. He knocked out 17 homers in 58 ACC games and then knocked out 3 dingers in his 14 game pro debut at rookie and Single-A. The hit tool isn’t great with a 22.9% K% in college, but beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to this year’s catcher class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 39/14/44/.235/.312/.426/4

991) Brenner Cox WAS, OF, 18.11 – Selected 111th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Cox signed for above slot with a cool one million dollar bonus. He’s a projectable 6’3”, 195 pounds with plus speed and plus power potential. He hit well in his pro debut with a 116 wRC+, 1 homer and 2 steals in 10 rookie ball games, but a 33.3% K% and 63.6% GB% shows his risk. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 46/12/41/.236/.309/.417/9

992) Ariel Castro MIN, OF, 17.1 – Castro is 6’2”, 180 pounds with a smooth and easy lefty swing that has natural loft and plus power potential. He doesn’t have as good of a hit tool as the international prospects ranked over him, but on swing alone he is up there with anyone. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 68/23/77.248/.321/.435/7

993) Rayner Arias SFG, OF, 16.11 – Arias has baseball bloodlines, and like usual, that results in a prospect who is more mature in baseball terms than some of his contemporaries. He combines that maturity at the dish with a projectable 6’1”, 180 pound frame and a big righty swing that has clear power potential. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/21/78/.266/.338/.440/5

994) Karson Milbrandt MIA, RHP, 18.11 – Selected 85th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Milbrandt signed for an over slot $1.5 million. He throws a high spin, low to mid 90’s fastball to go along with 3 secondaries that all have potential in his curve, slider, and change. There is plenty of refinement needed, but the upside is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 10/4.02/1.30/156 in 160 IP

995) Danny Serretti DET, SS, 22.11 – Selected 177th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Serretti had a hell of an MLB debut with a .946 OPS in 27 games, making it all the way to Double-A. He showed his strong plate approach will transfer with a 18.1%/20.7% K%/BB%, and he has moderate pop (2 homers) and speed (7 steals). It’s not a high upside profile and I’m not sure it’s a starter’s profile, but you gotta respect that pro debut. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 41/8/41/.252/.319/.417/4

996) Echedry Vargas TEX, SS, 18.1 – Vargas put up elite contact rates (12.1% K%) with some pop (4 homers) and speed (13 steals) in 54 games in the DSL. He’s not a big singing bonus guy or a huge human being (5’11”, 170), but there is still an exciting set of tools here. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 62/16/66/.260/.316/.434/9

997) Gary Sanchez FA, C, 30.4 – There is no guarantee Sanchez finds a full time job, and considering he isn’t a good defensive player, there is probably a better chance that he doesn’t. The big time power is still there with a 90.5 MPH EV, but it comes with a BA that will tank you (.205 BA). He’ll jack homers if he finds at bats, so his value will swing depending on where he lands. 2023 Projection: 45/18/55/.214/.297/.406/1

998) Ryan Jeffers MIN, C, 25.10 – Minnesota signing Vazquez moves Jeffers back into a part time role, which is unfortunate, because I liked him as a sneaky catcher target. His first season as the starting catcher didn’t go as planned, but the seeds were planted for a future breakout. He put up a 87 wRC+ in 67 games and missed 2 and a half months with a broken thumb that required surgery. The underlying numbers were much more encouraging with an MLB average .315 xwOBA, he hit the ball hard with an 88.2/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he hit it in the air with a 18.2 degree launch, and he brought his whiff rate all the way down to an above average 22.6% (34.2% in 2021). His 113.2 Max EV was in the top 9% of the league and shows he has some real juice. Without a starting job though, you can’t target him. 2023 Projection: 29/11/33/.232/.315/.417/0

999) Elias Diaz COL, C, 32.4 – Even hitting at Coors, Diaz is a low upside catcher option with a low BA, low OBP and moderate power. 2023 Projection: 44/12/51..249/.307/.396/0

1000) Travis d’Arnaud ATL, C, 34.2 – d’Arnaud hit well in 2022 with a .791 OPS in 107 games, but he heavily outperformed his underlying numbers with a .343 wOBA vs. .313 xwOBA. He’s not someone who has consistently overperformed his underlying numbers, so you can’t count on that going forward, and at 34 years old you have to start factoring in some decline. He’s also now firmly a back up catcher with Sean Murphy in town. 2023 Projection: 37/13/43/.256/.315/.428/0

1001) Mike Zunino CLE, C, 32.0 – Zunino’s season ended on June 9th after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery on his shoulder. An aging catcher coming off very serious shoulder surgery does not seem like a great bet, especially with Bo Naylor ready to take this job. He hit 5 homers with a .148 BA in the 36 games he played in, which really isn’t that far of an outlier season for him. 2023 Projection: 35/13/41/.200/.278/.403/0

1002) Francisco Mejia TBR, C, 27.5 – Mejia has yet to have the power breakout, or make plate approach improvements, which would take his profile to the next level. He had a 86.8 MPH EV with a 2.3% BB% which led to a 85 wRC+ in 93 games. He’s also a poor defensive player. He’s a major playing time risk without much upside. 2023 Projection: 30/7/32/,240/.295/.400/0

1003) Jason Heyward LAD, OF, 33.7 – We’ve heard about the new swing and LA working their magic on Heyward, and then we got a first hand look at it. Heyward unloaded on his first homer of the spring and looked equally good demolishing his 2nd a few days later. It was undeniably impressive, but Heyward is the type of athlete that has always been undeniably impressive at 6’5”, 240 pounds. I mean, would anything be more fun than a late late career breakout for a player we all thought would be a superstar? There are definitely at bats to be won in LA this year. Crazier things have happened … 2023 Projection: 29/8/34/.233/.309/.402/4

1004) Alex Isola MIN, C/1B, 24.8 – Isola has an excellent plate approach (18.2%/13.0% K%/BB%) with the ability to lift the ball (44.9% FB%). It’s a great combo and it led to 10 homers with a .282 BA in 58 games at Double-A. He has a quick righty swing at 6’1”, 215 pounds that can definitely do some damage. He might top out as a back up catcher, and he’s already 24 years old, but there’s some interesting close to the majors upside here. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 36/9/38/.254/.321/.420/0

1005) Wes Clarke MIL, 1B/C, 23.6 – Clarke was a big time performer in SEC, and he had a strong first full year of pro ball with a 115 wRC+ in 83 games at High-A and a 121 wRC+ in 16 games at Double-A. He hit only .229 with 14 homers in 99 games overall, so he didn’t exactly light the world on fire, but he hits the ball hard and in the air with strong walk rates (.356 OBP). There’s also a chance he could get enough games in catcher to retain eligibility there. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 38/12/41/.233/.318/.428/0

1006) Joe Naranjo CLE, 1B, 21.11 – Naranjo has a very smooth lefty swing with natural loft, and after his raw power ticked up this year, it led to 18 homers with 120 wRC+ in 119 games at High-A. He’s always been a high OBP guy, and he took it to another level with a 16% BB% and .364 OBP. The K rate is on the high side (25.5%) and he’s a career .241 hitter in 276 MiLB games, so he’s a better OBP target than 5×5 BA. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 61/16/58/.244/.328/.427/3

1007) Mason Martin PIT, 1B, 23.10 –  Pitt just signed like 3 fringy 1B, but at some point I imagine they will want to see what they have with Martin, and he has the potential to go on a power binge real quick. He had a bad year with a 79 wRC+ in 134 games at Triple-A, but it doesn’t really change his profile as an extremely risky power hitter. He had a 35.9% K% which isn’t out of line for what he’s done in his career. 2023 Projection: Prime Projection: 32/10/39/.223/.291/.425/3

1008) Nathan Martorella SDP, 1B, 22.1 – Selected 150th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Marorella is more of a John Olerud than a Jim Thome, to bring it back to my childhood. Meaning he’s more of a good all around hitter rather than a power hitting beast. He put up a .977 OPS with 11 homers and a 29/34 K/BB in 55 Pac 12 games, and then put up a .932 OPS with 3 homers and a 21/16 K/BB in 28 games split between rookie and Single-A. He has a bit of an awkward lefty swing and has a different batting stance in just about every video I’ve seen. The ones of him in pro ball definitely look the best to me though. He’s not the type of upside bat you look for at 1B, but he can be solid. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 56/14/51/.267/.332/.427/1

1009) Brenton Doyle COL, OF, 24.10 – Doyle is a proximity upside play in Coors with a plus power (26 homers in 132 games in the upper minors)/speed (23 steals) combo, but his plate approach is atrocious with a 171/28 K/BB. 2023 Projection: 7/2/9/.210/.272/.367/3 Prime Projection: 39/8/37/.223/.288/.403/6

1010) Shane Sasaki TBR, OF, 22.9 – Sasaki was too old for Single-A, but he handled his business there, slashing .324/.410/.497 with 9 homers, 47 steals, and a 22.9%/12.2% K%/BB% in 89 games. He’s still a very thin 6 feet, so the power should tick up in time. He’ll probably top out as a bench OF, but there is an interesting set of skills here. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 39/6/31/.243/.314/.391/11

1011) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 21.9 – Hendrick struck out 40% of the time in 36 games at Single-A and 35.8% of the time in 73 games at High-A. That is just too extreme. His flyball rate is very extreme too at well over 50%, which will result in plenty of homers, but will crater his batting average. It’s still a high upside profile, but the risk is impossible to ignore. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 45/17/51/.221/.304/.431/7

1012) Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – Lile underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2022. He was selected 47th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft on the back of his plus hit tool, which is generally not my favorite type of player to go after in fantasy. Power and speed could end up about average. His pro debut wasn’t great, slashing .219/.363/.250 with 0 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/18.8% K%/BB% in 19 games at rookie ball. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/13/64/.266/.327/.410/6

1013) Clark Elliott OAK, OF, 22.5 – Selected 69th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Elliott has a solid across the board profile with pop, speed, and a high OBP. He put up big numbers in the Big Ten, slashing .337/.460/.630 with 16 homers, 19 steals, and a 56/49 K/BB in 61 games. There is a little more strikeouts than you would like, but he has a strong lefty swing that is geared for power and average. Landing with Oakland gives him opportunity, but everything else there is a negative. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 55/14/52/.242/.325/.426/9

1014) Daniel Palencia CHC, RHP, 23.2 – Palencia always had the huge upper 90’s fastball, and in 2022 he was able to refine his control just enough to have a breakout year with a 3.94 ERA and 98/35 K/BB in 75.1 IP. There is still tons of reliever risk as the control is still below average, he pitched in mostly short 3-4 IP outings, and his change is still a work in progress. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.15/73 in 65 IP

1015) Cole Phillips ATL, RHP, 19.10 – Selected 57th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Phillips underwent Tommy John surgery in April, which puts a damper on his FYPD stock, but he’s a nice high upside arm to stash late. He’s 6’3”, 200 pounds with an athletic delivery that he uses to fire a mid to upper 90’s fastball. The secondaries aren’t as refined, but the slider is potentially plus and the changeup can be solid too. The upside is worth the risk as this point in the draft. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.29/155 in 150 IP

1016) JJ Matijevic HOU, 1B/OF, 27.5 – Matijevic has hit well basically everywhere he’s been since his freshman year of college, and he really raked in 2022 with 16 homers and a .933 OPS in 64 games at Triple-A. The problem is that he’s a high strikeout hitter (24.1% K%) with a high groundball rate (50% GB%). Those are the weaknesses that tanked his MLB debut with a .582 OPS, 35.2% K%, and 8.9 degree launch. He’s very likely a bench bat, especially if he remains with Houston. 2023 Projection: 23/7/27/.236/.306/.418/2

1017) Matt Gorski PIT, OF, 25.4 – Gorski is tooled up with power (24 homers in 81 split between High-A and Double-A) and speed (21 steals), but he has major hit tool issues (28.6% K%). He’s a good defender and is in the perfect organization, so if you’re going to take a shot on this type of prospect, might as well do it with ones who have some semblance of a path to playing time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 33/8/36/.224/.296/.412/6

1018) Jerar Encarnacion MIA, OF, 25.6 – Encarnacion has huge power with a 90.5/96.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in 81 PA in his MLB debut, but it comes with equally huge strikeouts with a 39.5% K%. He jacked 14 homers with a 29.3% K% in Triple-A. The power and proximity is enough to keep him interesting. 2023 Projection: 12/4/15/.217/.288/.407/0 Prime Projection: 41/18/52/.231/.305/.437/3

1019) Brad Boxberger CHC, Closer Committee, 34.10 – Boxberger could be in the mix for saves in Chicago. His fastball was down to 92.7 MPH in 2022 and he’s had career low control issues (9.7% BB%). He can be solid, but he’s not a target with no assurance he even gets a share of the closer job. 2023 Projection: 3/3.78/1.30/68/7 saves in 64 IP

1020) Gregory Soto PHI, Closer Committee, 28.2 – No, don’t do it. It just can’t be him. He isn’t good. He had a 4.08 xERA with 1.38 WHIP and a bad 22.8%/12.9% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. The stuff is big with a 98.7 MPH fastball, so the talent is certainly there, but he seems like the clear worst option here. 2023 Projection: 3/3.66/1.33/66/5 saves in 60 IP

1021) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.3 – Warren is a groundball pitcher with a heavy sinking fastball and diverse pitch mix. His stuff is good but not standout, and his 20.6%/8.2% K%/BB% with a 4.02 ERA in 94 IP at Double-A doesn’t really pop. It’s likely a swingman/back end starter type profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 8/4.02/1.33/124 in 140 IP

1022) Zach Davies ARI, RHP, 30.2 – Davies relies heavily on an 89.6 MPH sinker, which tells you just about everything you need to know about his upside. Back end guy with the potential to implode as his once above average control is gone. 2023 Projection: 7/4.39/1.35/119 in 150 IP

1023) Ryan Yarbrough KCR, LHP, 31.3 – Yarbrough seems to have a starting job with the Royals. He induces weak contact (85.1 MPH EV against) and has plus control (6.2% BB%), but he only throws 86.7 MPH. Back end guy. 2023 Projection: 8/4.40/1.34/105 in 145 IP

1024) Luke Weaver CIN, RHP, 29.7 – Cincy is not the team to take a shot on back end starters. Weaver was used out of the pen in 2022 and he got crushed with a 6.56 ERA in 35.2 IP. The underlying numbers look better with a 38/13 K/BB and he had good velocity with a 94.9 MPH fastball. He’s a desperation option only. 2023 Projection: 6/4.58/1.51/92 in 100 IP

1025) Trevor Williams WAS, RHP, 30.11 – Williams struggled in the rotation from 2019-2021 until the Mets used him out of the pen where he had some success. Washington is moving him back into the rotation where he will probably regress back to getting hit up. His 91.2 MPH fastball is solid a pitch, but none of his secondaries pop. 2023 Projection: 5/4.42/1.41/115 in 130 IP

1026) Jordan Lyles KCR, RHP, 32.5 – If you looked up back end starter in an encyclopedia (do these still exist?) you would see Lyles face. 2023 Projection: 9/4.56/1.38/130 in 160 IP

1027) Darius Vines ATL, RHP, 24.11 – Vines had a strong season in the upper levels of the minors with a 3.77 ERA and 156/44 K/BB in 140.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A. He only throws in the low 90’s but he has a nasty changeup to go along with a solid slider. Back end profile. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.29/1.32/140 in 150 IP

1028) Dominic Hamel NYM, RHP, 24.1 – Hamel is a spin monster with basically his entire arsenal putting up high spin rates (fastball, curve, slider). It led to a 3.25 ERA and 145/54 K/BB in 119 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The fastball only sits in the low 90’s, his control isn’t great, and he’s old for the lower minors, so it’s probably more of a back end profile with mid-rotation upside. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.32/171 in 165 IP

1029) Michael King NYY, Setup, 27.10 – King was shutdown in July with a fractured right elbow that required surgery. He was in the midst of a dominant season with a 2.29 ERA and 33.2%/8.0% K%/BB% in 51 IP on the back of an excellent 4 pitch mix (95.5 MPH 0 launch angle sinker, elite slider, plus 96.4 MPH 4-seamer, lightly used elite changeup). Without the injury he would have likely been ranked higher than this, but the injury creates plenty of risk. 2023 Projection: 3/3.52/1.20/60/2 saves in 50 IP

1030) Seth Beer ARI, 1B, 26.8 – These bat first guys just don’t get any type of leash. Beer struggled in what was essentially his MLB debut with a .521 OPS in 126 PA and was then sent back down to Triple-A for most of the year. He didn’t hit all that well at Triple-A either with a 101 wRC+ in 90 games. There is no guarantee he ever really gets another real shot. 2023 Projection: 18/6/21/.248/.321/.426/0

1031) Cavan Biggio TOR, 1B/2B, 28.0 – Biggio has that weak flyball profile that kills BA and doesn’t get enough balls over the fence to make up for it. He also strikes out a lot. A high BB% is really all he has going for him. 2023 Projection: 41/9/37/.225/.326/.392/4

1032) Leandro Cedeno ARI, 1B, 24.8 – Cedeno is built like a tank and he has the power of a tank. He crushed 32 homers in 123 games at mostly Double-A. Here he is destroying a 527 foot homer. The plate approach hasn’t been great throughout his career with relatively low walk rates and high strikeout rates, and there isn’t much defensive value, so he’s trending as a power bench bat. 2023 Projection: Prime Projection: 37/14/45/.246/.308/.442/0

1033) Sonny DiChiara LAA, 1B, 23.8 – Selected 148th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, LA sent DiChiara straight to Double-A for his pro debut, and he understandably struggled with 1 homer, a 36.9% K% and a .600 OPS in 36 games. On the other hand, he was already 23 years old, so the extreme struggles is not a great sign. He’s built like Dan Vogelbach at 6’1”, 263 pounds, and has the requisite power to match his size, crushing 63 homers in 187 games in his college career in the relatively weak Southern Conference. He’s going to have to rake to get playing time, and the Double-A debut does not give much hope he will be able to do that on the MLB level. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 28/8/31/.220/.307/.417/0

1034) Leonardo Bernal STL, C, 19.2 – Bernal was 18 in full season ball and more than held his own with a 117 wRC+, 7 homers and 18.7%/7% K%/BB% in 45 games. He’s already a pretty thick 6’0” and he hits the ball relatively hard for his age. The upside might not be huge, but he’s one of the stronger teenage catchers in the game. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 51/16/56/.262/.321/.425/1

1035) Bryant Betancourt COL, C/1B, 19.6 – Betancourt repeated the DSL as an 18 year old and did what he was supposed to do, smashing the level with 11 homers, a 12%/15.4% K%/BB% and 190 wRC+ in 44 games. He was known for his bat when he signed, and it’s not like he performed poorly in 2021 with a 108 wRC+, it’s just that the power wasn’t there yet with 1 homer in 39 games. The power clearly showed up this year. There is no guarantee he sticks behind the plate and he obviously has a long way to go, but he’s a good upside flier in very deep leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 34/9/39/.245/.322/.423/1

1036) Griffin Doersching SDP, 1B, 24.8 – Selected 240th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Doersching is a 6’4”, 250 pound hulking slugger who smashed 15 homers in 42 Big 12 games, and then stepped into pro ball and cranked 9 homers in 30 games at mostly Single-A. He was a 5th year senior with strikeout issues, but he’ll clearly be able to hit for power no matter what the level is, it’s just a question of how low the batting average will get. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 32/12/34/.218/.304/.431/1

1037) Sandro Gaston HOU, C/1B, 20.4 – Gaston was a 19 year old in the DSL, so you really have to take his stats with a grain of salt, but nevertheless he decimated the level with 12 homers, a 24.3%/13% K%/BB% and 180 wRC+ in 47 games. He’s a big man at 6’3”, 210 pounds and his nickname is EL Tanke. The power is most certainly real. The 24.3% K% is scary especially considering his age, and he might not stick at catcher, but he’s a power hitting prospect to at least keep an eye on. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 28/10/31/.221/.292/.410/1

1038) Ronny Hernandez CHW, C, 18.5 –  Hernandez had one of the best age appropriate seasons from a catcher in the DSL, slashing .268/.383/.526 with 6 homers and a 17.5%/15% K%/BB% in 34 games. There is very little out there on him, and he wasn’t a hyped signing, but he’s 6’1”, 200 pounds with a 55.4% flyball percentage, so the power is likely for real. This is a complete shot in the dark based on number scouting only. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 42/16/47/.243/.317/.421/1

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)