Patreon Post: A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

I’m going to be releasing “Sneak Peeks” of my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings all off-season over on my Patreon. Here is A Top 150 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE AND TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers & Top 76 1B are already up)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Tier 1

1) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year (I will be updating those “Universal Rankings” this off-season too), and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I might actually pick him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10

3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19

4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21

5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3

Tier 2

6) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20

7) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16

9) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20

10) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18

11) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14

12) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix. 2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24

13) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22

14) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP

15) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6

16) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8

17) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but when I was on the clock at 18th overall in the Rotowire 20 team OBP Dynasty Mock Draft, I found myself concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

18) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also currently has a 244 wRC+ in 12 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1

Tier 3

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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