These rankings are made for 5×5 OBP leagues. My “Universal” Rankings will be out on the Patreon this week too where good real life hitters get boosted (power and walks), speed is heavily devalued, and pitchers don’t get juiced up. Here is the OBP Top 600 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings:
Tier 1
1) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.5 – The underlying stats were elite all season, but it took until the 2nd half for the surface stats to catch up, slashing a ridiculous .348/.525/.639 in 72 games post break. He was my top pick in all non 5×5 AVG leagues last year (I will be updating those “Universal Rankings” this off-season too), and with his OBP projected to outpace everyone by a large margin, I’m picking him over Ohtani in those leagues this year too. 5.8 degree launch angle is really the only thing you can quibble with. 2022 Projection: 108/33/103/.318/.460/.575/10
2) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/DH, 27.9 –Tatis has a shoulder issue. Acuna tore up his knee. Soto and Vlad don’t steal a ton, and they sure as hell don’t pitch. Yea, Ohtani’s older than them, but we are talking about a 27 year old, not someone approaching the dreaded 3 – 0 (see Mike Trout). He’s changed the definition of “all category” and “across the board” production in fantasy baseball forever. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22 – 8/3.48/1.15/150 in 125 IP
3) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 24.3 – Torn ACL could keep him out for at least a month into 2022, and it will be interesting to see how much he is willing to run when he returns. In the long run, missing a month shouldn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but when we are talking about the elite of the elite, every little bit counts. He would easily slot in at #2 without the injury. 2022 Projection: 99/35/85/.282/.389/.583/19
4) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 23.3 – Tatis is foregoing surgery on his left shoulder, which after seeing the year Bellinger just had, I don’t blame him. It does add a layer a risk to an otherwise almost spotless fantasy profile. I say “almost” spotless, because his whiff% jumped up 6.8 percentage points to a pretty dangerous 34.8%. 2022 Projection: 102/39/99/.277/.366/.581/21
5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 23.0 – Vlad raised his launch angle 4.8 degrees to 9.4 degrees and all hell broke loose as he demolished 48 homers. He maintained his near elite K% and also notched a career high 12.3% BB%. This was the breakout we were promised. 2022 Projection: 113/41/110/.298/.385/.590/3
Tier 2
6) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 29.5 – Harper is also in the almost 30 club, but he just put up the best xwOBA in all of baseball with a .427 mark. He hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down on the bases. There should be at least a few more years of elite production. 2022 Projection: 103/36/96/.281/.399/.578/14
7) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 24.1 – Bichette isn’t really in the same conversation as the guys ranked ahead of him when it comes to real life hitting, but he is a fantasy machine. He hit .298 with 29 homers and 25 steals. If you want to look at it glass half full, as good as he’s been, there is still upside left in the tank if he can raise his 5.8% BB% and 7.3 degree launch angle. 2022 Projection: 105/31/92/.294/.356/.510/20
8) Trea Turner LAD, SS, 28.9 – Turner is the older and faster version of Bichette. He’s not putting up insane xwOBA’s, but he’s a fantasy owner’s best friend, coming up just 2 homers shy of a .300/30/30 season. 2022 Projection: 110/27/84/.309/.361/.512/30
9) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 25.2 – Speaking of elite xwOBA’s, Tucker put up a .394 xwOBA which is in the top 6% of the league. He notched career bests in K% (15.9%), whiff% (20.3%), BB% (9.3%), launch angle (17.6 degrees), and Max EV (111.1 MPH). He also chipped in 14 steals. He’s elite. 2022 Projection: 93/33/101/.285/.350/.535/16
10) Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – I ranked Franco 14th overall on my 2021 Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranking, writing, “the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects.” Kelenic was my #2 overall prospect, but I ranked him 52nd on the dynasty list because he simply didn’t have that elite floor. And that is exactly how it played out in 2021 with Franco putting up a 12% K% en route to a solid MLB debut, slashing .288/.347/.463 with 7 homers and 2 steals in 70 games (he also knocked out 2 homers in 4 playoff games). The underlying skills are there for a homer/steal breakout as he notched a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, 88.2 MPH EV and 9.7 degree launch angle. The arrow is only pointing way up from here. 2022 Projection: 101/23/83/.302/.360/.484/11 Prime Projection: 116/31/111/.320/.392/.555/14
11) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 29.6 – Ramirez has an elite plate approach (13.7%/11.3% K%/BB%) with power (90 MPH EV with a 18.3 degree launch), and speed (28.2 ft/s sprint speed). The sports crime of being almost 30 is the only thing keeping Ramirez outside of the top 10, but in a redraft league (or if you are in all in mode), he has a real argument to be in the 1st overall mix. 2022 Projection: 105/34/94/.277/.368/.531/24
Shadow11) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 27.9 –Ohtani is so ridiculous that he is still an elite player even after taking away 9 wins and 156 K’s in 130.1 IP. This is where I would take him as a hitter only or in a weekly lineup league. 2022 Projection: 96/37/98/.261/.365/.541/22
12) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 30.8 – The injury gods struck Trout down again as a significant tear in his calf limited him to just 22 games. He was elite as ever in those 22 games with a .421 xwOBA, although I think it is worth pointing out his whiff% bloated all the way up to 27.5% (19.5% in 2020) and his launch angle tanked to 12.9 degrees (23.1 in 2020). Considering the small sample, I don’t think it means that much, but it’s worth noting. Along with entering his nursing home years, a lower body injury can’t help the odds he will get back to stealing bases, but all indications are that he will be elite everywhere else assuming he can stay healthy. 2022 Projection: 103/40/101/.293/.405/.620/8
13) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 27.5 – Not only did Burnes not regress a single iota from his 2020 breakout, but he took it up another level with a league leading 30.4% K-BB%. The only other qualified pitchers even close to that mark were Scherzer and Cole. His BB% dropped 4.8 percentage points to 5.2%. He put up a 2.01 xERA which was bested only by deGrom’s 1.55 mark among starters, and deGrom is 33 years old coming off an elbow injury. Burnes is in a class of his own in dynasty. 2022 Projection: 15/2.71/0.98/267 in 195 IP
14) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 25.5 – Devers matured at the plate in 2021 with a career best 9.3% BB%, and he also brought his K% back down to 21.5% after jumping to 27% in 2020. He always hit the living crap out of the ball, and putting it all together led to a career best .389 xwOBA with 38 homers in 156 games. 2022 Projection: 95/37/106/.284/.358/.546/6
15) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 24.9 – The knees look A-OK as Yordan got back to raking after missing almost all of 2020. His 93.2 MPH EV was 8th best in the league and his .386 xwOBA is elite. He also had a 180 wRC+ in 16 playoff games. His sprint speed did drop to 26.2 ft/s (27 ft/s in 2019), so maybe the knees become an issue when he gets older, but it looks like clear sailing for the next several years. 2022 Projection: 94/35/108/.281/.363/.548/1
16) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – A bone spur in Betts’ right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has him dropping a bit for me. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13
17) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 25.3 – Albies power took a step forward as he entered his mid 20’s, notching career highs in exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and launch angle (21.1 degrees), which led to his first 30 homer season. He also ran more on the bases, leading to his first 20 steal season, and considering how successful he’s been on the bases in his career (60 for 73), he should probably run even more. 2022 Projection: 100/29/93/.274/.333/.492/20
18) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 24.8 – Robert played in only 68 games, but the sheer dominance of those games shows he belongs in the land of the elite. His power exploded with 13 homers and a 91.2/96.3 MPH AVG/FB EV, and his contact rates improved dramatically with a 28.2% whiff% and 20.6% K% (41.5% and 32.2% in 2020). He did slow down with a 28 ft/s sprint speed (29.1 in 2020), but some of that is likely due to the torn hip flexor that kept him out. He is also still a very aggressive hitter with a 4.7% BB%, so while it might cap his upside in OBP leagues, all of the ingredients are there for him to have a legitimate shot at finishing as the #1 overall player in 5×5 leagues. 2022 Projection: 91/28/93/.278/.332/.508/18
Tier 3
19) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 29.9 – Machado’s underlying power numbers exploded this year, shattering career highs in exit velocity (93.1 MPH), Max EV (119.6 MPH) and HardHit% (52.2%). The gains didn’t really show up in his surface stats with 28 homers and a .836 OPS, but at the very least it is reminder of how elite Machado can be. He’s been a bit inconsistent in his career, going back and forth between great years and solid years since 2017, so if the trend holds, he is in for one hell of a 2022. 2022 Projection: 94/34/103/.283/.354/.522/10
20) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 21.9 – Bobby Witt showed out so much in Spring Training that there were whispers he would make the opening day roster, and he probably should have because Double-A and Triple-A proved no match for him. He slashed .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers, 29 steals, and a 23.2%/9.0% K%/BB% in 123 games. It will be ridiculous if he doesn’t break camp with the team in 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/26/84/.260/.329/.472/18 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.277/.351/.541/23
21) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 21.3 – Rodriguez did it all in 2021. He brought his BB% up to 12.6% (6.8% in 2019), he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) in just 74 games, and he obliterated the upper levels of the minors, slashing .362/.461/.546 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 37/29 K/BB in 46 games at Double-A. He’s in a two man race with Bobby Witt for the #1 overall prospect in baseball. 2022 Projection:59/17/63/.277/.342/.472/6 Prime Projection: 98/35/110/.291/.378/.575/11
22) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 33.9 – You almost have to do a double take when looking at deGrom’s season numbers. 1.08 ERA? 0.55 WHIP? 45.1%/3.4% K%/BB%? Give me a second to pick my jaw up off the ground. Of course, in this flawed universe we live in, there always has to be a yang to the yin. He put up those numbers in only 92 IP because of a partial tear in the UCL of his elbow. He already started to throw side sessions at the end of September, so the hope is that he will be 100% for 2022, but it certainly adds a healthy dose of injury risk. 2022 Projection: 13/2.48/0.93/258 in 175 IP
23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 31.7 – Cole become the face of the spider tack scandal, and it was warranted as his numbers definitely took a hit, putting up a 2.68 ERA pre break and a 4.14 ERA post break. His spin rates did a recover a bit by the end of the season, but not to pre crackdown levels. There is good news for 2022 though, as it was recently announced that the Arizona Fall League has been experimenting with a pre tacked ball, which seems like a good sign MLB will implement them for the 2022 season. I’m betting on the spider tack guys getting their mojo back in 2022. 2022 Projection: 15/3.10/1.03/261 in 195 IP
24) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 27.4 – Alonso quietly took a huge step forward with his contact ability, notching career bests in K% (19.9% vs. 25.5% in 2020) and whiff% (24.9% vs. 30.4% in 2020). He also had a career best 91 MPH EV. And while it led to an excellent season (37 homers and a 133 wRC+ in 152 games), there is now potential for him to put up some truly historic seasons as he enters his peak years. I would buy high on Alonso. 2022 Projection: 94/45/112/.268/.357/.561/2
25) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 28.0 – Olson made tremendous improvement to his K%, brining it all the way down to 16.8% (31.4% in 2020), and he basically maintained it for the entire season. Hard not to think that won’t regress at least a little in 2022, but power and patience is what you are really buying here anyway. Truly keeping up that hit tool improvement will be the cherry on top. 2022 Projection: 93/38/106/.262/.363/.541/2
26) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 29.2 – Burnes may have overshadowed the year Woodruff just had, because he was dominant with a pitching line of 2.56/0.97/211/43 in 179.1 IP. It was the most innings he’s thrown in his career, and he did seem a tire as the season went on as his sinker velocity slowly declined about 1 MPH from start to finish. He had a 2.06 ERA pre break and a 3.41 ERA post break. It does make me wonder, with all these pitchers having huge jumps in innings pitched after the shortened 2020 season, if there will be some type of hangover effect in 2022. 2022 Projection: 14/3.33/1.06/218 in 185 IP
27) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 27.8 – Buehler had a spectacular season with a pitching line of 2.47/0.97/212/52 in 207 IP, but there were some red flags. He lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball with a career worst 95.3 MPH mark and he also put up a career worst 26% K%. I’m not downgrading him much because of it, but it is something in the back of my mind. 2022 Projection: 15/3.39/1.02/202 in 190 IP
28) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 27.6 – Welcome to the 30/30 club, Cedric Mullins. He became only the 43rd player to go 30/30, and only the 9th lefty ever. Speaking of being a lefty, Mullins made the ultimate adjustment this season and dropped his righthanded swing. It worked liked gangbusters as he had by far his best season vs. righties (.452 OPS vs. righties in 2018/.243 in 2019/.502 in 202/.788 in 2021). Now the question is, can he do it again? He did outperform his underlying numbers a bit with a .372 wOBA vs. a .343 xwOBA. His 92.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity also doesn’t leave much room for error. I think the more reasonable expectation for 2022 is a 20/20 type year rather than 30/30. 2022 Projection: 88/25/68/.277/.340/.460/25
29) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 29.11 – Judge once against led all of baseball with a 95.8 MPH exit velocity. It’s only a matter of staying healthy for Judge as he played in 148 games this season and ripped 39 homers with 148 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 93/40/97/.268/.364/.550/5
30) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – Baseball players are human beings. When you’ve spent your entire career, from the time you were 17 years old, with one organization, it is going to take time to adjust to a new city, new fans, new teammates, coaches, expectations etc … And that goes doubly when that new city is New York. And even if you don’t buy into all that mumbo jumbo, his underlying numbers in 2021 were almost exactly in line with career norms. He just got a bit unlucky this year. One thing slightly outside of his career norms was that he swung and missed at a career worst rate (23.2% whiff%), but he offset that with a career best 11.1% BB%. Lindor is an easy buy this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/29/85/.267/.344/.482/17
31) Trevor Story FRA, SS, 29.4 – Story had a slow start to the season but he was back to raking by the end of it, slashing .269/.358/.552 with 12 homers, 3 steals, and a 52/22 K/BB in his final 55 games. Nothing in his underlying numbers are setting off alarm bells, but the big question is how much he should be downgraded leaving Coors. It seems that Coors juices up batting average first and foremost, so I wouldn’t expect a huge drop in homers and steals, but the hits and BA are coming down. His down 2021 might have inadvertently shown us who he will be over the next few seasons. 2022 Projection: 82/28/91/.250/.333/.483/18
32) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 27.9 – Lowe went bonkos in the 2nd half, slashing .289/.376/.638 with 26 homers and 3 steals in 80 games (.689 OPS in first 69 games). He brought his K% all the way down to 21.1% in 67 games post break (32.2% in 82 games post-break). The power was never in question, so if those K% gains are real, it takes Lowe to the next level. 2022 Projection: 89/36/95/.263/.355/.519/6
Tier 4
33) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 26.9 – Who needs a good plate approach anyway? O’Neill is just a power/speed glutton, smashing 34 homers with a 93 MPH EV, and stealing 15 bags with a 29.7 ft/s sprint speed. There is tons of risk with a 31.3%/7.1% K%/BB% and 34.7% whiff%, but you can’t rule out improvement there with only 892 MLB AB under his belt. The BA is certainly coming down, but the power/speed combo is elite, and I’m willing to take on the risk for that upside 2022 Projection: 85/32/86/.263/.337/.510/13
34) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 22.8 – After a disastrous start to his MLB debut (.360 OPS after his first 30 games), Kelenic slowly got better as the season went along and finished strong in September, slashing .248/.331/.524 with 7 homers, 3 steals, and a 29/12 K/BB in 29 games. He doesn’t have major swing and miss issues with a 26.9% whiff%, and while he struggled against breaking and offspeed pitches, he got much better vs. them as the season progressed. Kelenic was a buy low for me the second he started struggling in the majors, and while his strong finish probably raised the price, there is a still a buying opportunity here. 2022 Projection:76/24/79/.252/.326/.449/10 Prime Projection: 89/28/93/.268/.343/.481/14
35) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 25.10 – A minor shoulder strain and subsequent drop off in production in August and September is the only blemish on an otherwise outstanding season. Even after the shoulder strain his stuff was still excellent and his K/BB numbers were still great, so I wouldn’t be worried. Peralta throws 4 legitimately plus pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) which led to a 33.6% K% and 2.81 ERA in 144.1 IP. His control wasn’t bad (9.7% BB%), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he keeps improving in that area. Peralta has league winning upside. 2022 Projection: 11/3.22/1.09/235 in 170 IP
36) Freddie Freeman FRA, 1B, 32.6 – Freeman ain’t young but his level of dominance year in and year out deserves at least this ranking. His .411 xwOBA ranked 7th in the league and he has been at the top of those leaderboards since Statcast came on the scene in 2015. 2022 Projection: 103/32/106/.303/.395/.522/6
37) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP
38) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 24.5 – Rogers added 0.9 MPH to the fastball (94.5 MPH) and improved his control, leading to the pitch becoming one of the 10 most valuable 4 seamers in the game. The changeup placed 24th best. The slider wasn’t as good, but it was a good enough 3rd pitch with a 40.8% whiff% to put Rogers into elite territory. He’s an ace 2022 Projection: 10/3.31/1.18/196 in 165 IP
39) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 29.6 – Hernandez drastically improved his K% from 30.4% in 2020 to 24.9% in 2021, and he continued to mash the ball en route to another beastly season, slashing .296/.346/.524 with 32 homers and 12 steals in 143 games. The improved contact numbers give faith he will continue to get to all of his power and speed. 2022 Projection: 88/34/104/.267/.330/.515/11
40) Marcus Semien TEX, SS/2B 31.6 – Saying Semien “bounced back” from a down 2020 would be an understatement. He went insane in 2021 with 45 homer and 15 steals. He notched a career high 89.7 MPH EV, 109.5 MPH Max EV, and 20.3 degree launch angle. The underlying numbers do provide some caution as his .368 wOBA was much better than his .329 xwOBA, but Semien is a fantasy stud. Going from Toronto to Texas is a ballpark and lineup downgrade, but he’s put up big numbers in Oakland too which is also a pitcher’s park, so I wouldn’t downgrade him too much based on the move. 2022 Projection: 92/30/86/.252/.330/.491/13
41) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 28.10 – Nola finished with an unsightly 4.63 ERA, but everything in his underlying numbers say he’s the same ace he’s always been. He had a sparkling 223/39 K/BB in 180.2 IP and his xERA was 3.39 (3.37 xFIP). I doubt anyone will be willing to sell low on him, but if you can even get a small discount it is worth pouncing on. 2022 Projection: 14/3.46/1.15/225 in 190 IP
42) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 26.10 – Bieber returned from a strained shoulder at the end of the year and made two 3 inning starts where his velocity was down. It is very possible he was just taking it easy, so I don’t want to panic, but it would have been nice to see his velocity return. In the 96.2 innings he did pitch, he wasn’t able to maintain anything close to his insane 2020, but he was still putting up elite numbers with a 3.17 ERA and 33.1% K%. I would wait until we see him back to 100% during Spring Training before clearing out the farm for him. He is a hold. 2022 Projection: 12/3.35/1.10/226 in 170 IP
43) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 27.9 – Giolito had a rough April with a 5.68 ERA but he pitched like his normal dominant self after that. His K% did drop to a 3 year low to 28% (33.7% in 2020), but his BB% dropped with it to 7.1% (9.7% in 2020). 2022 Projection: 13/3.56/1.13/221 in 183 IP
44) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 29.6 – After a dominant first half (.930 OPS pre break), Bogaerts fell off hard in the 2nd half (.761 OPS post break). He ended up having his usual rock steady season with a 130 wRC+. 2022 Projection: 96/26/87/.292/.366/.498/8
45) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 27.11 – A fractured hand after getting hit by a pitch limited Seager to 95 games. He couldn’t fully maintain his 2020 power breakout, but he still showed the power improvements were real with a career high 115.3 Max EV and a 49.3% HardHit% which was the 2nd best mark of his career (55.9% in 2020). The overall offensive numbers were just as dominant as 2020 with a 147 wRC+ (150 wRC+ in 2020). His ascent as an elite hitter in 2020 was not a mirage. 2022 Projection: 91/26/92/.301/.380/.518/1
46) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 28.0 – Bregman underwent wrist surgery on Nov. 8th. The wrist issue can maybe explain the down power season, but his power was down in 2020 as well and he was never a huge exit velocity guy to begin with. He also completely stopped running over the past two seasons, with his sprint speed dropping to a career low 25.6 ft/sec which was almost surely due to a quad injury that kept him out for two months. On the plus side, his plate approach is elite (13.3%/11% K%/BB%), and he gets the ball in the air (15.9 degree launch angle). It’s hard to expect the stolen bases to come back, but a power resurgence is at least still in the cards. 2022 Projection: 92/26/89/.277/.370/.482/5
47) Jesse Winker CIN, OF, 28.7 – An intercoastal strain essentially ended Winker’s season in mid August after 110 games. He was elite in those 110 games though with 24 homers, a 15.5%/10.9% K%/BB% and a .388 xwOBA (Top 7% of the league). It proves his 2020 breakout was 100% real. He’s had some injury issues in his career, but Winker is an elite bat that could probably be had for a non elite price. 2022 Projection: 94/27/86/.282/.375/.507/1
48) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 22.7 – Tork is a 6’1”, 220 pound bull with a swing geared towards launching bombs. And that is all he’s done in his baseball career, crushing 25 homers in 55 games as a freshman in the Pac 12, ripping 23 homers as a sophomore, and now smashing 30 bombs in his pro debut over 121 games split pretty evenly across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He does all this with an advanced plate approach (13% BB% at Triple-A) and without any major strikeout worries (20.3% K% at Triple-A). 2022 Projection: 72/27/74/.252/.337/.485/3 Prime Projection: 96/35/105/.275/.372/.533/3
49) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 31.10 – Wheeler had a career year with a pitching line of 2.78/1.01/247/46 in 213.1 IP. His 29.1% K% was higher than his 26.5% whiff%, so I would expect some regression in that area, but both marks were easily career bests, so there was definitely real improvement. He led the league in exit velocity against at 84.6 MPH. 2022 Projection: 14/3.21/1.09/220 in 200 IP
50) George Springer TOR, OF, 32.6 – Missed most the first half with an oblique and quad injury, playing in only 20 games with a .726 OPS pre-break. He exploded post break, slashing .286/.366/.599 with 17 homers, 3 steals, and a 56/25 K/BB in 58 games. He posted a career best 15.4% barrel% and 116.4 Max EV. His sprint speed was as fast ever, showing there weren’t any lingering effects from the injuries. 2022 Projection: 103/37/88/.263/.350/.545/6
51) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 26.7 – Alcantara already possessed one of the best sinkers in the game, but he took it up a notch this year, adding 1.4 MPH to the pitch (97.6 MPH) and finished with the 3rd most valuable sinker on the year. He improved both his control and swing and miss ability (22.7%/8.7% K%/BB% in 2020 vs. 24%/6% in 2021). You also shouldn’t underestimate innings pitched, as he threw 205.2 IP this year and 197.1 IP in 2019. He might not have elite bat missing ability, but he keeps the ball on the ground (4.5 degree launch angle) and with his filthy stuff there can definitely be further improvement coming. 2022 Projection: 12/3.39/1.14/193 in 195 IP
52) Will Smith LAD, C, 27.0 – Smith went ballistic post all star break, smashing 15 homers with a .936 OPS in 56 games. He was good pre break too (.800 OPS in 74 games). He has an advanced plate approach (20.2%/11/6% K%/BB%) with an above average exit velocity (90.1 MPH) and a high launch angle (19.4 degrees). 2022 Projection: 75/26/81/.267/.370/.500/2
53) Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 27.1 – Arozarena went 20/20 on the dot in 2021, but the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. He had a below average .302 xwOBA (.350 wOBA), 32.4% whiff%, and 7.6 degree launch angle. On the other hand, he had an above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), BB% (9.3%) and sprint speed (28.8 ft/sec). If you can hit it hard, get on base, and run fast, good things generally happen. I’m more excited for the things he can do well than scared off by the things he doesn’t. 2022 Projection: 88/22/75/.268/.347/.462/17
54) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 28.9 – Don’t worry about Anderson’s lack of plate approach, he’s been barely walking and putting up strong numbers since 2014. It does look like he may trade some speed for more power as he enters his late 20’s as he put up a career best 89.6 MPH EV and career worst 28 ft/sec sprint speed. 2022 Projection: 92/22/75/.293/.328/.470/17
55) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 28.3 – With a talent like this, give me all the injury risk. Buxton had a career best 92.5 MPH exit velocity with a max EV that was in the top 4% of the league (115.6 MPH). His 30 ft/s sprint speed is in the top 1% of the league. He hit 19 homers with 9 steals and a 1.005 OPS in 61 games this year. He can legitimately finish as the top fantasy player in baseball, and while the injury risk is very real, I think people are discounting him far too much for it. 2022 Projection: 89/28/81/.271/.326/.518/19
56) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – Seeds of a breakout were already starting to show in 2020 beneath his mediocre surface stats, and that breakout blossomed hardcore in 2021, slashing .303/.367/.531 with 33 homers and a 25.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. He keeps improving his hit tool with a career best 28.3% whiff% and he made major strides against offspeed pitches with a .369 xwOBA against them (.223 in 2020). He’s not a real .300 hitter, but there is real juice in his bat. 2022 Projection: 85/31/98/.275/.340/.511/0
57) Starling Marte NYM, OF, 33.6 – It’s hard for dynasty owners to buy into a player going into his mid 30’s, and that goes doubly for speed first players, but the year Marte just had is going to put that age aversion to the test. He tied his career high with 47 steals and put up a career best by far 8.2% BB%. He has slowed down a bit these past few seasons, but a 28.4 ft/s sprint speed is still plenty fast. If you have the cojones to do it, now could be the ideal time to sell, but I own him in a 12 teamer at $35 and I don’t think I have the nerve to do it. I’m rolling with him for 2022. 2022 Projection: 87/15/71/.286/.352/.450/33
58) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 28.6 – Playing in only 90 games due to two hamstring injuries (one to each hamstring) has camouflaged how good of a season Marte had. He’s never hit the ball harder with an excellent 91.1/95.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, and it led to a near elite .370 xwOBA. The hamstring injuries slowed him down, putting up a career worst 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed, but that should bounce back with full health. This year proved that Marte is closer to being the guy who had a great 2019, rather than the player who had a down 2020. You can go after him with confidence this off-season. 2022 Projection: 93/24/90/.298/.359/.507/7
59) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 25.5 – A torn pectoral tendon limited Eloy to 55 games, and he was pretty mediocre in those games with a .740 OPS and 101 wRC+, but none of his underlying numbers were too far off from career norms to cause major concern. There is still room for improvement with his launch angle (8.4 degrees) and BB% (6.9%), but he’s going to mash even if those numbers don’t get significantly better. 2022 Projection: 84/32/103/.267/.327/.510/0
60) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 30.1 – Great American Ballpark is an insanely great ballpark for homers, and Castellanos immediately started ripping dingers when he got there with 14 homers in 60 games in 2020 and 34 homers in 138 games in 2021. His underlying numbers have been near elite for 6 years now, he just needed the right ballpark to unleash the beast. 2022 Projection: 92/33/97/.281/.340/.521/2
61) Joey Gallo NYY, OF, 28.4 – Gallo made gains to his K% with Texas with a career best 32.2% K%, but it spiked back up to 38.6% after his trade to the Yankees. He had a .160 BA in his last 58 games of the season. He is the ultimate three true outcome slugger. 2022 Projection: 87/39/85/.203/.337/.490/5
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)