Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10+ Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 323 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago Cubs (free)—Cincinnati Reds (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—St. Louis Cardinals (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals

Top 10 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Andrew Painter PHI, RHP, 19.5 – In a Mock First Year Player Draft last off-season for Baseball Prospectus, I drafted Andrew Painter 21st overall and wrote, “I generally lean toward hitting prospects in dynasty, but I’m not afraid to take a shot on a couple of pitchers. Painter is a big dude who checks a lot of boxes. My plan is to sell him when he hits his peak on prospect lists, and before he goes all Forrest Whitley on us at Triple-A” … but now that Painter has hit his peak on prospect lists, it’s so damn hard to sell. It’s so easy to fall in love with pitching prospects, but some do actually stay healthy and pan out, right?!?! Painter seems like he is going to be one of those that do. He had a silly pitching line of 1.56/0.89/155/25 in 103.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A, A+, AA). He’s 6’7”, 215 pounds with plus control of an upper 90’s fastball, plus slider, potentially plus change, and an average curve. He just seems can’t miss … but if he does miss, my 2021/22 off-season self will just be shaking his head and laughing at me for being so naive. 2023 Projection: 4/3.79/1.24/63 in 60 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.18/1.06/235 in 200 IP

2) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 21.8 – Abel’s 6’5”, 190 pound build, combined with a 4 pitch mix led by a mid to upper 90’s fastball, screams ace upside, but the numbers and command say more mid rotation starter. He put up a 3.90 ERA with a 130/50 K/BB in 108.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. Maybe the immediate and unquestioned dominance of Painter put the expectations too high for the still very young Abel. It seems reasonable to expect continued refinement of his command and secondaries in his age 21 year old season. If he can take those steps, his value will skyrocket, but even as is, he’s a damn exciting prospect. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.71/1.24/181 in 170 IP

3) Justin Crawford PHI, OF, 18.6 – Son of Carl Crawford. I could honestly end the blurb right there and you will know exactly the type of player Justin is. 6.11 second 60 yard dash is in the elite of the elite, and he has shown a good feel to hit. The power hasn’t fully developed yet, and he hit 0 homers with very, very high groundball rates in his 16 game pro debut, so he’s not only going to have to get stronger, he’s also going to have to make a swing adjustment to tap into more power. His upside is as high as anyone’s in a 5×5 BA, but he’s not as refined as the high school hitters ranked above him. He was selected 17th overall. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/16/69/.270/.337/.426/31

4) Griff McGarry PHI, RHP, 23.10 – McGarry has a mid to upper 90’s fastball that literally looks like it is swimming through the air. Hitters have had some ugly swings trying to square that thing up. The secondaries are nasty too with a plus slider, plus cutter, a changeup that flashes plus, and a curve as well. It led to a 35.7% K% in 87.1 IP split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). It’s top of the rotation stuff. The one snafu is that his control is very bad. He had a 14.6% BB%. His 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP don’t exactly pop. His control issues were actually much worse than this in college (42 walks in 43 IP in the ACC in 2021), so this is improvement. I’m not sure if that means there could be continued improvement coming, or if this is the top of his ability. He very well could end up in the bullpen, and that is probably the most likely outcome, but if his control can take just one more step forward, he’s going to be a major problem. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/45 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.67/1.28/172 in 150 IP

5) William Bergolla Jr. PHI, SS, 18.5 – Bergolla was a favorite of mine from the 2022 international class and he was a hit machine in his pro debut with a .380 BA and 3.6%/13.3% K%/BB% in 24 games in the DSL. It was good for a 150 wRC+. He didn’t hit a single homer and he only stole 2 bags, so I’m a little concerned about the upside, but he’s one of the safest bats coming out of the DSL. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.281/.343/.414/16

6) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 22.8 – Rojas is a speedster who nabbed 62 bags in 67 attempts in 130 games split between High-A and Double-A. He has above average, but not elite contact rates with a 17.8% K%, and his power is lacking with only 7 homers. We’ve seen enough of these types of prospects struggle hard when they hit the majors, but he has an elite skill in his speed, and the power should hopefully tick up in time. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/13/57/.252/.318/.396/27

7) Hao Yu Lee PHI, SS/3B/2B, 20.2 – Lee had a strong season in the lower minors, slashing .284/.386/.438 with 9 homers, 14 steals, and a 67/43 K/BB in 79 games at mostly Single-A, but he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to get excited. He was only 19 years old, but he’s not that projectable at 5’10”, 190 pounds, and he’s not a burner either. It’s a low upside profile with risk due to the lack of power upside. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/15/62/.253/.323/.417/6

8) Nikau Pouaka-Grego PHI, 2B/3B, 18.7 – Pouaka-Grego was 17 years old playing in stateside rookie ball and he excelled, slashing .301/.424/.466 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 16/16 K/BB in 35 games. He has a smooth lefty uppercut swing that is made to hit flyballs (36.1% GB%), and he combines that with an advanced plate approach. He’s not a big raw power or speed guy, so the upside might not be huge. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.273/.344/.432/6

9) Gabriel Rincones PHI, OF, 22.1 – Selected 93rd overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rincones is 6’4″, 225 pounds with a quick lefty swing that produces all fields power. He destroyed Conference USA, slashing .346/.451/.658 with 19 homers, 2 steals, and a 51/42 K/BB in 58 games. He hasn’t faced the best competition and there is some swing and miss in his game, but the power is for real. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 58/18/63/.244/.322/.448/2

10) … Nobody – There ain’t no participation trophies at Imaginary Brick Wall (even though I had a shelf full of them as a kid) 🤣 Nobody who I could give this spot to would even crack my Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. Some systems I wanted to go over 20 deep, and this one stops at 9. Just how the cookie crumbles. Let’s move on to MLB guys …

MLB Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel PHI, Closer Committee, 34.10 – If Kimbrel is right, his name value and track record should lock down the closer job for Philly, but there is no guarantee he will be right. He was terrible in 2019 and 2020, inconsistent in 2021, and just mediocre in 2022 with a 3.75 ERA and a career low by far 27.7 K%. The stuff is still big with a 95.8 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a 43.6% whiff%, but it’s not as big as it used to be. He used to throw 98+ MPH and his slider used to put up a 55% whiff%. He’s never been a plus control guy, so he doesn’t have that pitchability to fall back on as the stuff drops off. He’s pretty clearly in a decline phase, but the skills are there to still be a good reliever, and even if he’s not the best pen arm Philly has, I think he’ll get the job if he is acceptable enough. 2023 Projection: 4/3.51/1.22/80/20 saves in 63 IP

Jose Alvarado PHI, Closer Committee, 27.10 – This bullpen is full of high upside options, but Alvarado might have the highest upside of them all. He had a silly 37.9% K% on the back of a 99.6 MPH sinker and an elite cutter that put up a .110 xwOBA and 55.7% whiff%. He’s struggled with control his entire career, but something clicked in the 2nd half of the season where he put up a 1.30 ERA with a 61/10 K/BB in his final 34.2 IP. Being a lefty might work against him locking down the full time closer role, but he should be their top lefthanded option there. 2023 Projection: 4/3.03/1.18/82/15 saves in 58 IP

Seranthony Dominguez PHI, Closer Committee, 28.4 – If Kimbrel can’t lock down the job in Spring, Dominguez could be the favorite to get the first shot at it. His slider is elite with a 57.1% whiff% and he combines that with 2 upper 90’s fastballs in his 97.6 MPH 4-seamer and 98.2 MPH sinker. It was good for a 3.00 ERA and 61/22 K/BB in 51 IP, which doesn’t exactly jump off the screen, but he’s capable of topping that. 2023 Projection: 4/3.15/1.12/71/10 saves in 55 IP

Gregory Soto PHI, Closer Committee, 28.2 – No, don’t do it. It just can’t be him. He isn’t good. He had a 4.08 xERA with 1.38 WHIP and a bad 22.8%/12.9% K%/BB% in 60.1 IP. The stuff is big with a 98.7 MPH fastball, so the talent is certainly there, but he seems like the clear worst option here. 2023 Projection: 3/3.66/1.33/66/5 saves in 60 IP

MLB Hitters

Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 30.6 – Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 56/18/54/.281/.380/.525/6

Brandon Marsh PHI, OF, 25.4 – Philly made some adjustments with Marsh after they traded for him, and he performed well there with a 114 wRC+ in 138 PA, but I’m still struggling to buy in too hard because the plate approach was still poor with a 29.7%/4.3% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a line drive approach and has plus speed. That is a profile where good things tend to happen if you can make enough contact and/or get on base, but Marsh is struggling in both of those areas. He’s also been terrible against lefties. A strong side of a platoon bat seems like the best case scenario for early in his career. 2023 Projection: 53/11/48/.248/.309/.415/11

MLB Starting Pitchers

Ranger Suarez PHI, LHP, 27.8 – Suarez had visa issues because of the lockout, arriving late to camp in Spring, and it clearly messed him up. He put up a 4.74 ERA in his first 43.2 IP, but then found his rhythm and put up a 3.22 ERA the rest of the way in 111.2 IP. His game is all about keeping the ball on the ground (5.1 degree launch) and inducing weak contact (87.5 MPH EV against). He does it mostly with a 92.5 MPH sinker that put up a negative 3 degree launch, but he also has 5 other pitches, 4 of which put up an above average xwOBA (change, cutter, curve, slider). He doesn’t have huge stuff, he’s not a huge K guy (19.5% K%), and he’s not an elite command guy (8.8% BB%), so the upside isn’t necessarily huge, but there is an interesting blend of skills and pitch mix here to be a legitimate impact fantasy starter. 2023 Projection: 11/3.73/1.25/150 in 170 IP

Bailey Falter PHI, LHP, 25.11 – I named Bailey a low key, late round flier type target last off-season, and while Philly used him as an up and down arm for the most of the year, he excelled when they finally gave him a real shot. He put up a 3.00 ERA with 37/6 K/BB in 45 IP to close out the season. Plus control is his game with an elite 4.9% BB%. The stuff isn’t big with a 91 MPH sinker, but he has a 5 pitch mix that puts up respectable K rates with an almost average 21.2% K% and 23.8% whiff%. He won’t be a league winner, but he can a stabilizing force at the back of your fantasy rotation if he can make it through spring with the 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 9/3.89/1.23/127 in 140 IP

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Smart teams know that depth is extremely important, so the Cubs recent signings of Hosmer and Mancini are good moves for real life, but man do they throw a wrench in the Matt Mervis hype train. I can’t say I didn’t see this coming, trying to pour at least a small amount of water on the hype, writing in the Mervis blurb, “Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now.” I also brought up his platoon risk. If you’re a Mervis fan, this should only be a temporary road block, but it’s now questionable whether he will even break camp with the team, and he’s going to have to earn it every step of the way without a very long leash when he does get his shot. You can no longer count on him holding down that 1B job for your dynasty team in 2023. If he eventually wins it, consider it gravy.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE & EARLY ACCESS CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 260 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 109 2023 FYPD RANKINGS w/ Strategy & Target Guide
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: Top 282 OF//Top 151 SS//Top 115 3B//Top 105 2B//Top 95 1B//TOP 68 C
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

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