Posted on by Michael Halpern

The Argument for Carlos Correa at #4 Overall

“Too risky,” they say. Who is they? Probably you. That’s right, you are a member of the ignominious “they” now. Doesn’t feel so good, does it? But I’m here to make one last ditch effort to try to get you to see the light. Here is the argument for Carlos Correa at #4 overall:

1) Correa’s competition isn’t as safe as they appear (Donaldson, Arenado, Rizzo, Machado, Stanton, Cabrera, McCutchen)

Let’s start with Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rizzo, and Manny Machado. All of these guys have exactly one year of elite fantasy production, and only Donaldson managed to even crack the top 5 last season. Arenado finished 10th on Yahoo’s player rater, Machado finished 13th, and Rizzo 23rd. Their track records, which I guess is the reason they are considered safer than Correa, include multiple seasons of non-elite production for each player. It would not be the first time we attribute a “breakout” season to a player, when it ends up being closer to a career year in reality. Not to say I don’t think these guys had real breakouts, I do, but you can’t completely ignore the risk of regression, either.

Which brings us to Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew McCutchen. The risk factor for Stanton is obvious, injury. He has played in under 125 games in 3 of his 5 full major league seasons. As for Cabrera and McCutchen, they present the best arguments for picking a safe player over Correa, but their track records are starting to get a little too long, as some age related red flags popped up for both of them last season. Cabrera’s came in the form of injuries. He played in only 119 games in 2015 after being a pillar of health his entire career. McCutchen’s came in the form of stolen bases. He stole a career low 11 bags, on a career low 16 attempts last season. This coming off establishing career lows in both categories in 2014. I actually have Cabrera and McCutchen ranked slightly higher than the general consensus, so I do value the safety of a long track record, but the longer the track record gets, the more wear and tear risks come into play.

2) 5-category production

Picking true 5-category producers in the early rounds, rather than pure power guys, will give you the flexibility to seek value in the later rounds, no matter what form it comes in. You won’t have to pass on your favorite sleepers, or that stud that keeps falling, because you ignored speed, or average, earlier in the draft. Arenado, Cabrera, and Donaldson are not going to give you much in the way of steals. Rizzo and Stanton fall more into the “sneaky” steals category, and don’t think you can count on them for true 5-category production like a 20+ steal Correa will provide. McCutchen’s declining stolen base totals and attempts were discussed above. Machado is the most interesting case. If I were more confident in his ability to steal bases, he very well might be deserving of the #4 spot (at least in a Yahoo league where he has SS eligibility), but his past history, poor stolen base percentage, and average speed grades suggest his 20 steal season in 2015 might be hard to repeat.

The 5-category production argument is also the major reason why I wouldn’t draft Clayton Kershaw ahead of Correa, either. Through no fault of his own, Kershaw is limited to being a 4-category producer. I also believe in an overarching draft strategy of favoring hitters over pitchers. I’m always going to take one of the elite hitters in the first round of a draft, no matter how dominant a pitcher is. I have been in many leagues where I have seen a pitching heavy strategy work, so I don’t think drafting Kershaw #4 overall is disastrous, but it is just not a strategy I will employ.

3) The much maligned positional scarcity

Positional scarcity should not be a major factor when you are drafting, and that’s the point, Correa can stand at #4 on his own merits, without the positional scarcity handicap. But it also doesn’t mean we should completely ignore it. The entire SS position is riddled with risk, starting with the moving away from Coors, oft injured Troy Tulowitzi, right on through to all of the highly touted youngsters (Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor). Ending up with Evan Longoria as your 3B, or Mark Teixeira/Brandon Belt as your 1B, is far safer than guys like Marcus Semien or Ketel Marte, as much as I like them as sleeper candidates myself. So while it may feel like you are going “safe” by passing on Correa in the first round, you are really just reallocating some of that risk to later in the draft.

4) Carlos Correa is a beast

As for Correa himself, he put up a fantasy line of 52/22/68/.279/14 in 432 MLB PA last season. He then played even better in the post season, putting up a .903 OPS with 2 homers in 25 PA. This coming off a MiLB hitting line of 44/10/44/.335/18 in 246 PA split between Double-A and Triple-A. And for the cherry on top, he is triple-slashing .419/.513/.774, with a 1.287 OPS and 3 homers in 39 PA so far this Spring. There is not a single scouting report that doesn’t absolutely love this kid. It is seriously looking like the riskier bet is actually betting against Correa to keep on hitting. And that 5-category production from the shortstop position is too risky to pass up after the big 3 are off the board.

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 30 Closers

We finish our positional rankings with the top 30 closers. I wish I could drum up some more excitement for this list, but there really aren’t many new names, or anything out of the ordinary. As usual, expect this position to be extremely volatile throughout the year due to trades, injuries, and random implosions.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Top 250 Overall

1) Kenley Jansen LAD – Almost lost his job amidst the Aroldis Chapman circus this offseason, but was spared at the last moment. 2016 Projection: 3/2.42/0.93/40/92

2) Craig Kimbrel BOS – Atlanta, San Diego, Boston … doesn’t matter. Elite closer anywhere. 2016 Projection: 3/2.29/0.97/37/90

3) Wade Davis KC – K’s were down last season compared to his 2014 breakout, but it didn’t seem to affect him all that much. He actually improved. 2016 Projection: 4/2.35/0.99/37/83

4) Trevor Rosenthal STL – Saved 93 games in his last two seasons combined. It’s hard to predict saves, but Rosenthal is a good bet to lead the league. 2016 Projection: 2/2.59/1.23/43/89

5) Jeurys Familia NYM – Breakout closer of 2015. K’s ticked up in the 2nd half too (43 K’s in 34.2 IP). 2016 Projection: 2/2.64/1.11/39/78

6) Zach Britton BAL – Added more K’s last season to solidify his spot as one of the best closers in baseball. 2016 Projection: 3/2.68/1.07/35/71

7) Aroldis Chapman NYY – Suspended for 30 games. Andrew Miller will close in his absence. Joe Girardi likes his relievers to have set roles, so I wouldn’t worry too much about Miller or Betances poaching too many saves upon his return. 2016 Projection: 2/2.24/1.05/30/92

8) Cody Allen CLE – Has a legitimate chance of breaking into the elite tier this season. 2016 Projection: 3/2.79/1.13/34/90

9) David Robertson CHI-AL – Safe pick with elite K upside. Had a bloated ERA the past two seasons compared to his FIP. 2016 Projection: 4/2.95/1.09/35/84

10) Mark Melancon PIT – Everything but K’s. 2016 Projection: 3/2.71/1.02/42/66

11) Hector Rondon CHI-NL – Joe Maddon rightfully doesn’t care about the “save” stat, but that doesn’t stop it from being annoying for fantasy owners. 2016 Projection: 4/2.91/1.12/31/67

12) Jonathon Papelbon WASH – He choked Bryce Harper in the dugout on live television, and absolutely shattered team chemistry after joining Washington last season. Things could only go up from there. 2016 Projection: 2/3.00/1.15/34/58

13) Huston Street LAA – 81 saves in his last two seasons combined. Good bet to be among the league leaders again this year. 2016 Projection: 2/3.20/1.17/37/55

14) A.J. Ramos MIA – Carter Capps’ torn UCL secured the closers job for Ramos. He struggled a bit in the second half last season, but has the talent to finish much higher on this list. 2016 Projection: 4/3.09/1.19/33/81

15) Roberto Osuna TOR – Named the Blue Jays closer over Drew Storen in a semi surprise decision. Like Ramos, can easily finish much higher on this list. 2016 Projection: 2/3.09/1.10/32/72

16) Shawn Tolleson TEX – Two straight seasons of a sub 3.00 ERA. Relatively safe pick with some upside.  2016 Projection: 4/3.28/1.18/36/72

17) Glen Perkins MIN – Durability concerns, but claims he is completely healthy coming into this season. At least so far. 2016 Projection: 3/3.26/1.17/35/65

18) Francisco Rodriguez DET – Only 34 years old, but feels like he has been around forever. Maybe that is because he made his MLB debut as a 20-year-old and set the league on fire. Still getting the job done 14 seasons later. 2016 Projection: 2/3.43/1.12/37/60

19) Sean Doolittle OAK – Reports have been positive in Spring Training so far, after having shoulder issues in 2015. Struck out 89 batters in 62.2 IP in 2014. 2016 Projection: 3/3.08/1.10/33/72

20) Jake McGee COL – The trade to Colorado doesn’t kill his value, but it does probably cap his ceiling. 2016 Projection: 4/3.05/1.14/32/78

21) Santiago Casilla SFG – Safe and boring. Won’t standout, but will likely get the job done. 2016 Projection: 3/3.20/1.25/36/53

22) Brad Ziegler ARI – Submarine delivery has hitters pounding the dirt. 2016 Projection: 2/3.12/1.19/33/45

23) Luke Gregerson/Ken Giles HOU – (Last minute update: Astros name Luke Gregerson primary closer.) Houston gave up a minor haul to get Giles for a reason (and apparently that reason was to be the set up man). Gregerson 2016 Projection: 4/3.00/1.06/31/60 Giles 2016 Projection: 5/2.75/1.18/9/85

24) Brad Boxberger TB – (Update: Out for at least 8 weeks after abdominal muscle surgery. Alex Colome and/or Danny Farquhar could see save opportunities while he is out.) Should have the closer’s job to himself after Jake McGee was shipped to Colorado. Had a down year in 2015, but still has elite K upside. 2016 Projection: 2/3.37/1.22/29/70

25) Jeremy Jeffress MIL – With Will Smith tearing the LCL in his right knee, Jeffress is now the favorite for the closer’s job. 2016 Projection: 2/3.40/1.27/27/60

26) Steve Cishek SEA – Completely imploded last season after 4 strong years in a row. Relievers have been to known to just lose it out of nowhere, but there is still some bounce back potential here. 2016 Projection: 4/3.46/1.28/29/64

27) Jason Grilli ATL – Prime candidate to be traded to a contender (as a setup man) if he is pitching well. 2016 Projection: 1/3.30/1.18/20/65

28) J.J. Hoover CIN – Can lose this job at any moment. 2016 Projection: 4/3.60/1.29/27/60

29) Fernando Rodney SD – Trade risk. Implosion risk. Age risk. About as risky as they come. 2016 Projection: 3/3.62/1.33/25/66

30) David Hernandez PHI – The Phillies closer competition is an absolute mess. It went from Hernandez to Andrew Bailey, and now it is looking like it is Hernandez’s job again. Stay away from this situation if you can. 2016 Projection: 2/3.75/1.26/20/69

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 100 Starting Pitchers

We reach the end of our starting pitcher rankings with the top 100 starters. Most of these guys will likely be best used as streaming options.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

76) R.A. Dickey TOR – Put up a 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 99.2 IP post all-star break. 41 years old, but you don’t need much juice to effectively throw that knuckleball. 2016 Projection: 12/3.75/1.21/142

77) Nathan Eovaldi NYY – Became a much improved pitcher after trusting his new splitter more in the 2nd half of 2015. 2016 Projection: 10/3.96/1.32/152

78) Rick Porcello BOS – After a horrible 1st half, put up a pitching line of 3.53/1.29/70 in 71.1 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 10/3.98/1.30/142

79) Edinson Volquez KC – Low risk, low reward. Serviceable back end starter. 2016 Projection: 11/3.78/1.33/146

80) Nate Karns SEA – Karns beat out James Paxton for Seattle’s 5th starter job. He has nice K upside for this late in the rankings. 2016 Projection: 9/3.80/1.29/150

81) John Lamb CIN – Kind of wrote a John Lamb, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper post. 2016 Projection: 8/3.71/1.27/150

82) Robbie Ray ARI – High risk, high reward. K’s and BB’s. 2016 Projection: 9/3.90/1.35/157

83) Alex Wood LAD – A once promising young pitcher whose stock took a major hit last season. 2016 Projections: 8/3.83/1.29/137

84) Vincent Velasquez PHI – Won the Phillies 5th starter competition. He put up a 10.8 K/9 in his minor league career, and then struck out 58 batters in 55.2 IP in his first taste of the majors last season. Will probably be on a relatively low innings limit. 2016 Projection: 8/3.90/1.31/130

85) Mike Leake STL – If you looked up “safe and boring” on Wikipedia, you would see Mike Leake’s face. 2016 Projection: 9/3.81/1.24/125

86) Marco Estrada TOR – Pitched out of his mind last season for Toronto. Not expecting a repeat. 2016 Projection: 10/4.11/1.24/135

87) Jerad Eickhoff PHI – Not buying the Ace level performance in his 50.1 IP debut in 2015. Still showed enough that he is worth a late round flier. 2016 Projection: 8/4.00/1.29/121

88) Matt Moore TB – Struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery. It takes some guys a few years to fully recover, so not completely writing him off yet. 2016 Projection: 8/3.81/1.32/120

89) Daniel Norris DET, SP – (Update: Has been dealing with lower back tightness for the past week and it will likely prevent him from winning a rotation spot to start the season.) It’s hard not to like a young, hard throwing lefty with huge K upside. I’m buying. 2016 Projection: 6/3.72/1.27/125

90) Josh Tomlin CLE – Pitched well after returning from shoulder surgery in the 2nd half of 2015. There is legitimate late career breakout potential here. 2016 Projection: 7/3.86/1.18/100

91) Lucas Giolito WASH – At this point in the rankings, I prefer to stash the best pitching prospects who are knocking on the door of the majors. I’m not going to give them projections, because it is impossible to predict when they will be called up. Giolito is the #4 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

92) Tyler Glasnow PIT – #5 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

93) Jose Berrios MIN – #12 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

94) Blake Snell TB – #13 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

95) Julio Urias LAD – #7 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post.

96) Jose De Leon LAD – #14 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Prospects post.

97) Wade Miley SEA – Moving into a pitcher’s park for the first time in his career. If you want to throw a dart and try to hit a career year, Miley is not a bad option to land on. 2016 Projection: 9/4.01/1.35/156

98) Juan Nicasio PIT – His great spring training won him a rotation spot in the Pirates rotation. Why not take a shot at this point? 2016 Projection: 8/3.81/1.29/138

99) Aaron Sanchez TOR – Won Toronto’s 5th starter job. He has a monster fastball that has mostly produced ground balls so far in his career. Will be on a very restrictive innings limit this season, but he is loaded with potential. 2016 Projection: 8/3.68/1.32/98

100) Rubby De La Rosa ARI – The results have yet to match the stuff. Decent upside play. 2016 Projection: 8/4.22/1.33/139

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 75 Starting Pitchers

The top 75 starters are a mix between boring mid rotation veterans, and the second tier of high risk, high reward youngsters. Picking the right player or two from this group can really make your draft.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

51) John Lackey CHI-NL – Put up a career best 2.77 ERA last season as a 36-year-old. Will now have the powerful Cubs offense for run support. 2016 Projection: 14/3.52/1.25/160

52) Scott Kazmir LAD – Ride him in the first half, trade him at the deadline before the inevitable collapse. 2016 Projection: 12/3.43/1.20/164

53) Jaime Garcia STL – Can’t stay healthy, but has a career pitching line of 3.31/1.26/573 in 724.1 IP. He isn’t going to strike many guys out, but the guy can pitch. 2016 Projection: 9/3.38/1.19/128

54) Jordan Zimmerman DET – Was trending in the wrong direction even before the move out of the NL East. Looks like he might get comfortable in this “safe and boring” tier for the next few years. 2016 Projection: 13/3.62/1.24/155

55) Shelby Miller ARI – The centerpiece in the trade heard round the world. Dave Stewart better hope he pitches better than my projection. 2016 Projection: 12/3.61/1.26/162

56) Wei-Yin Chen MIA – Moving from a hitter’s park in the AL East to a pitcher’s park in the NL East. I like. 2016 Projection: 11/3.43/1.20/158

57) Kenta Maeda LAD – Total unknown. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up much better, or much worse than my projection. 2016 Projection: 12/3.55/1.23/157

58) Collin McHugh HOU – Came back down to earth last season after a fantastic rookie season in 2014. Gravity’s a bitch. 2016 Projection: 13/3.70/1.24/167

59) Gio Gonzalez WASH – Tried to turn himself into a groundball pitcher in 2015 (with a terrible infield defense behind him), before scraping that plan in the 2nd half (86 K’s in 81 IP). 2016 Projection: 11/3.68/1.30/176

60) Jake Odorizzi TB – The prototypical Tampa Bay starter. Don’t expect him to pitch deep in games. 2016 Projection: 10/3.69/1.22/167

61) Andrew Heaney LAA – Had a strong rookie season in 2015. Doesn’t have the huge K upside, but has all the makings of a very solid pitcher. 2016 Projection: 11/3.66/1.23/152

62) Kyle Hendricks CHI-NL – Struck out 88 batters in 81 IP post all-star break last season. Has a career 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 260.1 IP. There is a lot to like here. 2016 Projection: 10/3.72/1.22/160

63) Aaron Nola PHI – Steady young starter without the big K upside. 2016 Projection: 9/3.69/1.23/148

64) Hector Santiago LAA – Fully transitioned into a starter last season, and predictably tired out after reaching a career high in IP. Could be an intriguing sell high candidate if he gets off to another hot start. 2016 Projection: 10/3.69/1.29/158

65) Ian Kennedy KC – The ratios might not look pretty, but he has struck out over a batter per inning the last two seasons. 2016 Projection: 10/3.90/1.28/178

66) Jason Hammel CHI-NL – After stratospheric 1st half in 2015, absolutely imploded in the 2nd half. Still averaged over a K per inning. 2016 Projection: 10/3.81/1.24/165

67) Ervin Santana MIN – You know what to expect at this point. 2016 Projection: 12/3.88/1.28/156

68) Andrew Cashner SD – Looked like a promising young pitcher on the rise coming into last season. Now he looks like an aging has-been. One year can sure change a lot. 2016 Projection: 9/3.71/1.29/161

69) Eduardo Rodriguez BOS, SP – (Update: Will start the season on the DL with a right knee injury. He is expected to make his season debut sometime in May.) Big, strong lefty with tons of potential. Fenway Park and the AL East do not provide the most hospitable pitching conditions, though. 2016 Projection: 9/3.78/1.26/155

70) Jake Peavy SFG – 34 years old going on 40. 2016 Projection: 11/3.71/1.20/140

71) Clay Buchholz BOS – 31 years old going on 25. Are we still waiting on his upside? 2016 Projection: 10/3.74/1.28/125

72) Phil Hughes MIN – Seems to go through a dead arm period every other year of his career. This should be one of the live arm years if the trend holds. 2016 Projection: 11/3.92/1.27/153

73) Anibal Sanchez DET – Still a major health risk, but if healthy, he is a much better pitcher than he showed last season. 2016 Projection: 9/3.75/1.26/150

74) Anthony DeSclafani CIN – Relatively safe young starter with some upside. 2016 Projection: 10/3.89/1.30/161

75) Kevin Gausman BAL – Baltimore’s recent history with developing pitching prospects has been brutal. He was the #4 overall pick in the 2012 draft, though, and has some K upside as well. 2016 Projection: 9/3.82/1.27/148

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 50 Starting Pitchers

The top 50 starters are jam packed with young, talented upside. That means risk as well. But I would rather try to strike gold, than pick a safe mid rotation starter.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

26) Francisco Liriano PIT – Inconsistent and injury prone, but those strikeouts are too enticing to pass up. 2016 Projection: 12/3.44/1.25/178

27) Masahiro Tanaka NYY – Not going to let a little torn UCL scare me off. Willing to take the risk for his upside. 2016 Projection: 14/3.40/1.09/163

28) Michael Wacha STL – Collapsed in September, pitching to a 7.88 ERA. Could have been due to fatigue after reaching a career high in IP. 2016 Projection: 13/3.41/1.18/162

29) Carlos Martinez STL – Draws comparisons to Pedro Martinez, mostly because of his size, but his stuff isn’t too far off either. 2016 Projection: 12/3.40/1.27/179

30) Garrett Richards LAA – Coming off a torn knee ligament, Richards didn’t have the season many were hoping for in 2015. The ingredients are still there for him to put it together in 2016. 2016 Projection: 13/3.52/1.22/175

31) Michael Pineda NYY – FIP (3.34) was much better than his ERA (4.37). Still some injury risk stemming from his 2012 shoulder surgery. 2016 Projection: 12/3.48/1.14/168

32) Drew Smyly TB – Injury plagued 2015, but showed enormous promise when he did pitch. 2016 Projection: 10/3.39/1.18/157

33) Jeff Samardzija SFG – Had a complete meltdown in 2015. The stuff is the same, so I expect him to get it back together this season. 2016 Projection: 13/3.68/1.23/180

34) Steven Matz NYM – Wrote about Matz in my Matz vs. Severino article. 2016 Projection: 12/3.49/1.23/156

35) Marcus Stroman TOR – Didn’t seem any worse for the wear after returning from a torn ACL in September. Recommence the hype train. 2016 Projection: 13/3.57/1.20/160

36) Yordano Ventura KC – Roller coaster 2015, but finished strongish with a 3.56/1.32/98 pitching line in 91 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 13/3.56/1.28/166

37) Julio Teheran ATL – After starting his career on fire his first two seasons, hit a small road block last year. Potential remains the same. 2016 Projection: 10/3.53/1.21/175

38) Lance McCullers HOU – (Update: Expected to begin the season on the DL after experiencing shoulder soreness. Return date is uncertain, but he is not expected to miss an extended period of time.) Strong rookie season, but I’m not expecting a full repeat. 2016 Projection: 12/3.62/1.27/159

39) Raisel Iglesias CIN – Everyone’s favorite sleeper that nobody is sleeping on. 2016 Projection: 10/3.63/1.23/175

40) Jose Quintana CHI-AL – Safe and boring but he keeps getting the job done year after year. 2016 Projection: 11/3.51/1.25/172

41) Joe Ross WASH – Tyson Ross’ little brother. Comes with the same nasty slider. 2016 Projections: 11/3.59/1.24/170

42) Hisashi Iwakuma SEA – Age and injury concerns. Still put up a pitching line of 3.05/1.02/91 in 100.1 IP post all-star break. 2016 Projection: 12/3.45/1.11/155

43) Patrick Corbin ARI – Came back strong from Tommy John surgery last season. Could take another step in 2016. 2016 Projection: 12/3.55/1.21/154

44) Justin Verlander DET – Came back from the dead in 2015. Might have some juice left in him after all. 2016 Projection: 12/3.66/1.22/167

45) Jimmy Nelson MIL – Wrote a Jimmy Nelson, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper post. 2016 Projection: 10/3.51/1.25/178

46) Carlos Rodon CHI-AL – Has serious control issues, but his strikeout potential is enormous. 2016 Projection: 11/3.69/1.30/182

47) Taijuan Walker SEA – Another young starter with tons of upside. Had some issues with the long ball last season. 2016 Projection: 11/3.72/1.19/175

48) Luis Severino NYY – Wrote about Severino in my Matz vs. Severino article. 2016 Projection: 12/3.68/1.26/158

49) Yu Darvish TEX – Expected to miss the first two months of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. I’m betting on him to hit the ground running when he returns, but who really knows. 2016 Projection: 9/3.46/1.22/155

50) James Shields SD – Had an extremely uncharacteristic 2015, seeing huge spikes in K’s and BB’s. Not exactly sure of what to expect in 2016. 2016 Projection: 12/3.70/1.26/184

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 25 Starting Pitchers

Strikeouts have absolutely exploded around baseball. MLB averaged 7.8 K/9 in 2015, setting a new all-time record. That broke the previous record of 7.7 K/9 set in 2014, which broke the previous record of 7.6 K/9 set in 2013. In fact, MLB has broken its own all-time K/9 and total strikeout record every season since 2008. You can find those all-time stats here. It’s actually pretty cool to look at. And the 2016 top 25 starting pitchers have all contributed more than their fair share into ushering in this new era of the strikeout. Will we see 7.9 K/9 in 2016?

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

1) Clayton Kershaw LAD – What can I say that hasn’t already been said? 2016 Projection: 19/2.23/0.91/249

2) Max Scherzer WASH – Will singlehandedly carry you in K’s. 2016 Projection: 16/2.88/0.99/263

3) Jake Arrieta CHI-NL – Was his 1.77 ERA low enough to convince you his 2014 breakout was for real? 2016 Projection: 18/2.69/1.02/210

4) Madison Bumgarner SFG – Bumgarner gets a slight edge over Sale due to his far superior pitching conditions. 2016 Projection: 17/2.90/1.07/221

5) Chris Sale CHI-AL – Ballpark and Chicago’s poor defense are the only things keeping him from ranking even higher on this list. 2016 Projection: 14/3.10/1.06/242

6) Matt Harvey NYM – After shaking off the rust coming back from Tommy John surgery, Harvey put up a pitching line of 2.19/0.92/79 in 78 IP after the all-star break. 2016 Projection: 16/2.79/1.05/208

7) Jacob deGrom NYM – Like Arrieta, actually improved on his 2014 breakout. 2016 Projection: 14/2.96/1.08/202

8) Corey Kluber CLE – Bad luck and poor defense might have been the reasons for his bloated 3.49 ERA vs. his 2.97 FIP. I’m betting that his FIP is the better indicator for next season. 2016 Projection: 13/3.00/1.09/227

9) Stephen Strasburg WASH – Contract year. Injury plagued 2015, but his 1.90/0.75/92 pitching line in 66.1 IP post all-star break gives you an idea of his insane potential. 2016 Projection: 14/2.99/1.08/218

10) David Price BOS – Price was right for Price this offseason, scoring a $217 million contract with Boston. Has already more than proven himself in the AL East and in hitter’s parks.  2016 Projection: 16/3.19/1.12/207

11) Noah Syndergaard NYM – Thor laid the hammer down on the league in his rookie season. Expect more of the same in year two, if not better. 2016 Projection: 14/3.09/1.10/211

12) Jose Fernandez MIA – Might be on a soft innings limit after pitching only 51.2 IP in 2014 and 64.2 IP in 2015. The fact he still ranks 12th shows how dominant he is. 2016 Projection: 11/2.76/1.08/193

13) Gerrit Cole PIT – Made the jump last season into Ace status. I wouldn’t expect a 2.60 ERA again, though. 2016 Projection: 15/3.24/1.13/198

14) Chris Archer TB – Second half collapse is worrisome, but those 252 strikeouts sure do look nice. 2016 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/213

15) Carlos Carrasco CLE – Another Cleveland pitcher with a bloated ERA (3.63) compared to his FIP (2.84). 2016 Projection: 13/3.29/1.08/210

16) Felix Hernandez SEA – There are whispers his 2015 troubles were due to an ankle injury. Some think it was the 2,262.1 career IP catching up to him. Whatever it was, I’m not writing him off, but also not expecting a full bounce back. 2016 Projection: 15/3.25/1.16/204

17) Zack Greinke ARI – Moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. Not overpaying for his career year. 2016 Projection: 16/3.15/1.18/192

18) Dallas Keuchel HOU – Doesn’t have the strikeout upside of the players ranked above him, but should receive plenty of run support from the strong Houston lineup. 2016 Projection: 17/3.27/1.19/181

19) Jon Lester CHI-NL – Safe pick. Started 30+ games 8 years in a row. Should enjoy strong run support as well. 2016 Projection: 16/3.25/1.15/194

20) Tyson Ross SD – Still has not overcome his control issues, but he racks up K’s and limits home runs. 2016 Projection: 11/3.32/1.23/201

21) Cole Hamels TEX – The league switch and advancing age limits his upside. Still a safe pick to be a strong #2 fantasy starter. 2016 Projection: 13/3.43/1.17/192

22) Danny Salazar CLE – Finally a Cleveland pitcher whose ERA (3.45) was better than his FIP (3.62). Has the strikeout upside fantasy owners love. 2016 Projection: 12/3.40/1.17/198

23) Sonny Gray OAK – 2.73 ERA. 3.45 FIP. Second year in a row he outperformed his FIP, so I wouldn’t expect him to fall off a cliff in 2016. 2016 Projection: 11/3.31/1.15/177

24) Adam Wainwright STL – If you have any doubt about Wainwright’s ability to make a full comeback this season, you have to check out this quick radio interview (which I discovered on Reddit’s fantasy baseball forum). 2016 Projection: 14/3.27/1.15/169

25) Johnny Cueto SFG – Fell off a cliff after the trade to Kansas City. The move back to the NL and a pitcher’s park somewhat revives his fantasy value. 2016 Projection: 13/3.30/1.12/173

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 75 Outfielders

We finish our position player rankings with the top 75 outfielders. This group is filled with players that are high risk, high reward, or conversely, low risk, low reward. Pick your poison. Tomorrow we begin our starting pitcher rankings.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

51) Kevin Pillar TOR – In the running to leadoff for Toronto’s powerhouse offense. Can provide Adam Eaton like production at a cheaper price. 2016 Projection: 71/10/50/.275/20

52) Josh Reddick OAK – Hasn’t been able to come close to repeating that 32 homer, 11 steal season in 2012, but still a relatively safe pick with some upside. 2016 Projection: 65/18/75/.260/6

53) Billy Burns OAK – The name perfectly fits the skills, as Burns is a legitimate burner.  2016 Projection: 76/6/41/.274/28

54) Steven Souza TB – Tantalizing 20/20 potential, but with some serious AVG risk. 2016 Projection: 70/19/60/.240/14

55) Ender Inciarte ATL – The move into Atlanta’s weak lineup hurts, but it doesn’t completely kill his value. 2016 Projection: 68/6/44/.282/22

56) Delino DeShields Jr. TEX –  Billy Burns without the cool name. Has a name more suited for fencing. 2016 Projection: 76/8/45/.255/26

57) Randal Grichuk STL – Might be getting a little overrated, but I understand falling in love with the power upside. 2016 Projection: 64/21/69/.258/5

58) Mark Trumbo BAL – Safe power bat with a low AVG. 2016 Projection: 64/24/75/.248/1

59) Evan Gattis HOU – See, Mark Trumbo. 2016 Projection: 58/23/72/.253/0

60) A.J. Pollock ARI, OF – Backed up his injury shortened 2014 breakout with a monster 2015. Expect him to come back down to earth a bit. 2016 Projection: 52/7/31/.291/15 (Update: Fractured his elbow while sliding into home and will require surgery. Timetable is still uncertain.)

61) Marcell Ozuna MIA – High risk power bat. Hit 23 homers in 2014 and only 10 last season. 2016 Projection: 61/16/69/.267/3

62) Domingo Santana MIL – There is no question the power will play at the major league level, the only question is how low of an average it will come with. 2016 Projection: 63/24/74/.239/4

63) Michael Conforto NYM – Another power hitting youngster who I think is getting a little overrated for this season. 2016 Projection: 60/19/68/.264/2

64) Stephen Piscotty STL – Very good hitter, but has yet to display big power or speed. The power could develop at any moment, though, a la Matt Carpenter. 2016 Projection: 65/14/61/.277/6

65) Melky Cabrera CHI-AL – Nothing flashy. Solid AVG and counting stats. 2016 Projection: 69/13/72/.280/4

66) Denard Span SFG – Will hit leadoff for San Francisco. Plus AVG and speed. 2016 Projection: 74/4/39/.288/19

67) Josh Harrison PIT – Had a disappointing follow up season to his 2014 breakout. AVG might be the only category you can really bank on. 2016 Projection: 67/9/48/.286/12

68) Nori Aoki SEA – Low risk, low reward. Favorite to hit leadoff in front of Seattle’s sneaky strong middle of the order (Seager, Cruz, Cano, Lind). 2016 Projection: 68/7/40/.287/18

69) Kevin Kiermaier TB – Known more for his defense, but the bat has some juice too. 2016 Projection: 66/9/47/.271/16

70) Rajai Davis CLE – With Abe Almonte suspended for 80 games, and Michael Brantley rehabbing from shoulder surgery, Davis should see plenty of at-bats this season. And that means plenty of steals, as well. 2016 Projection: 69/8/50/.251/26

71) Austin Jackson CHI-AL – Signed for one year, $5 million with the Chicago White Sox. This bumps Avisail Garcia completely out of the rankings. 2016 Projection: 62/10/40/.261/14

72) Jayson Werth WASH – Might be old, but at this point in the rankings, is worth taking a flier on. 2016 Projection: 68/16/67/.264/5

73) Carlos Beltran NYY – See, Jayson Werth. 2016 Projection: 57/18/67/.268/0

74) Danny Valencia OAK – Triple-slashed .284/.356/.530 with 11 homers in only 47 games for Oakland last season. Will be their starting third baseman this year. 2016 Projection: 58/17/69/.273/3

75) Yasmany Tomas ARI – Still a bit of an unknown, but what we have seen has not exactly been inspiring. 2016 Projection: 57/14/68/.262/6

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 50 Outfielders

The 2016 top 50 outfielders present a nice mix of young upside and veteran reliability. Let’s get right to it:

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

26) Jacoby Ellsbury NYY ­– Betting on his health is a roll of the dice, but when healthy, he is a fantasy stud. 2016 Projection: 89/11/55/.273/31

27) Kyle Schwarber CHI-NL – Wrote about Schwarber in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Catchers post. 2016 Projection: 71/27/89/.254/4

28) Christian Yelich MIA – Another youngster with a safe floor and high ceiling. Will most likely hit in front of Giancarlo Stanton and behind Dee Gordon. 2016 Projection: 82/12/63/.288/19

29) Brett Gardner NYY – Fell apart in the 2nd half after wrist injury. There is some sneaky upside here. 2016 Projection: 85/15/65/.263/23

30) Brandon Belt SFG – Wrote about Belt in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 First Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 78/20/80/.278/8

31) Michael Brantley CLE, OF – Rehab is ahead of schedule after off season shoulder surgery, but will still need a DL stint to start the season. There is concern the injury might sap some of his power. 2016 Projection: 68/14/74/.294/12

32) Shin-soo Choo CLE – Bounced back to normal self last season except for the stolen bases. 2016 Projection: 86/19/72/.273/5

33) Hanley Ramirez BOS – Owning Ramirez is like a roller coaster ride, but his 5-category upside is worth it at this point in the rankings. 2016 Projection: 70/20/76/.270/10

34) Curtis Granderson NYM – Solid 4-category production with a low AVG. 2016 Projection: 84/22/69/.252/9

35) Ben Revere WASH – Traditional leadoff hitter. 2016 Projection: 79/2/47/.297/33

36) Billy Hamilton CIN – Nothing but steals. Lots and lots of steals. 2016 Projection: 66/7/38/.251/51

37) Joc Pederson LAD – Dismal 2nd half last season, but he has too much upside to let fall beyond this point. 2016 Projection: 76/23/69/.246/12

38) Byron Buxton MIN – The #2 ranked prospect in my 2016 Top 100 Fantasy Prospects post. Starling Marte if everything goes right, back to the minors if it goes wrong. 2016 Projection: 79/13/60/.264/23

39) Dexter Fowler CHI-NL – Moderate power/speed combo hitting atop Chicago’s stacked lineup. 2016 Projection: 87/14/46/.258/16

40) Adam Eaton CHI-AL – Breakout season in 2015, but I’m not betting on a full repeat. 2016 Projection: 88/10/52/.286/14

41) Kole Calhoun LAA – Low risk power bat. 2016 Projection: 77/21/74/.266/3

42) David Peralta ARI – Safe across the board production. 2016 Projection: 74/15/68/.288/9

43) Gerardo Parra COL – The move to Coors should give his AVG and power a slight bump. 2016 Projection: 73/13/64/.289/12

44) Alex Gordon KC – If you couldn’t tell, we are smack dab in the middle of the safe and boring part of the rankings. 2016 Projection: 69/17/74/.269/6

45) Ben Zobrist CHI-NL ­– Wrote about Zobrist in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 83/16/65/.273/8

46) Matt Holliday STL – I’m not quite ready to write off the 36-year-old Holliday after a down 2015, as he still managed to put up an .804 OPS. 2016 Projection: 70/16/80/.280/3

47) Jay Bruce CIN – Likely to be traded at some point this season. 4-category production with a very low AVG. 2016 Projection: 68/24/80/.240/7

48) Corey Dickerson TB – Trade to Tampa Bay tanks his value. 2016 Projection: 68/18/64/.282/2

49) Khris Davis OAK – Trade to Oakland dings his value. His power is big enough that it shouldn’t make that much of a difference. 2016 Projection: 63/24/74/.253/5

50) Wil Myers SD – Post hype sleeper. Might not have fantasy stud upside anymore, but can still be a reliable starter. 2016 Projection: 70/18/72/.255/9

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 25 Outfielders

The NFL and NBA had a long run of unquestionably having the best athletes in sports, but I would put this group of top 25 outfielders up against anybody. Little guys, big guys, speed, power, average … there is a smorgasbord of tools to choose from here.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Third Base/Outfield(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

1) Mike Trout LAA – More like Mike Shark, amiright? 2016 Projection: 107/37/101/.294/13

2) Bryce Harper WASH – New Kid on the Block, both at the top of these rankings, and his hair style. 2016 Projection: 112/39/96/.311/8

3) Andrew McCutchen PIT – Holding on for dear life to the #3 spot, as there is large shadow looming, literally and figuratively, right behind him at #4. 2016 Projection: 93/22/90/.300/14

4) Giancarlo Stanton MIA – If you were betting on the player most likely to break Barry Bonds home run record, Stanton would be your guy. 2016 Projection: 87/41/104/.269/7

5) Jose Bautista TOR – Playing the role of the grumpy old man in the media recently, but he keeps puttting up young man numbers. 2016 Projection: 100/38/102/.260/5

6) Kris Bryant CHI-NL – Wrote about Bryant in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Third Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 90/32/108/.273/11

7) Chris Davis BAL – Wrote about Davis in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 First Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 97/42/118/.258/2

8) Mookie Betts BOS – Strong 5-category production with upside for even more. 2016 Projection: 96/16/74/.295/23

9) Starling Marte PIT – Look up one inch. 2016 Projection: 86/17/79/.283/30

10) Charlie Blackmon COL – Look up two inches. 2016 Projection: 91/16/63/.289/31

11) J.D. Martinez DET – Joined the power elite after jacking 38 homers in 2015. 2016 Projection: 88/33/100/.280/4

12) Nelson Cruz SEA – About that power decline we all expected to happen after his move to Seattle, yeah, it never happened. Crushed 84 bombs in his last two seasons combined. 2016 Projection: 86/36/97/.278/4

13) George Springer HOU – Some injury and strikeout concerns, but has easy 20/20 potential. 2016 Projection: 90/27/78/.264/21

14) Ryan Braun MIL – Bounce back season in 2015. Rebuilding Brewers will have him on the trade block all season. 2016 Projection: 81/26/80/.283/16

15) Adam Jones BAL – Down-ish year in 2015 has dropped his stock a bit. It probably shouldn’t have. 2016 Projection: 87/28/94/.279/6

16) Carlos Gonzalez COL – Won the Russian roulette game of which Colorado outfielders would not get traded (sorry Corey Dickerson, you are dead to me). 2016 Projection: 85/29/90/.281/5

17) Justin Upton DET – His 2011 “breakout” season is looking more and more like a career year. Still a productive fantasy player. 2016 Projection: 88/26/83/.268/12

18) Carlos Gomez HOU – Should bounce back after injury riddled 2015. 2016 Projection: 81/19/75/.265/26

19) Lorenzo Cain KC – A.J. Pollock lite. And maybe not even all that lite. 2016 Projection: 84/14/67/.296/26

20) Jason Heyward CHI-NL – Justin Upton’s career doppelganger, except with less power and more speed. People are still waiting for that 2012 “breakout” to stand up. 2016 Projection: 81/15/72/.282/22

21) Yoenis Cespedes NYM – Not completely buying into the Cespedes who absolutely mashed for the Mets in 2015. 2016 Projection: 78/26/88/.274/7

22) Matt Kemp SD – I feel like I want to rank him lower, but the power numbers are still strong. There is something about being a San Diego Padres hitter that makes me want to forget about you. Maybe it’s just me. 2016 Projection: 74/24/87/.277/10

23) Hunter Pence SFG – Underrated after playing in only 52 games last season. Across the board production. 2016 Projection: 76/23/81/.276/11

24) Yasiel Puig LAD – High risk, high reward. Talent to legitimately finish top 5 on this list. 2016 Projection: 83/22/74/.280/8

25) Gregory Polanco PIT – Relatively high floor with a huge ceiling. I’m buying. 2016 Projection: 86/14/59/.275/25

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Third Basemen

I want one of the top 4 third basemen this year. Todd Frazier wouldn’t be a terrible consolation prize, either (or Miguel Sano if he is eligible in your league). Not to say there aren’t plenty of good options further down the list, but the top 4 will provide MVP level production.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/Starters(Top 25)/(Top 50)/(Top 75)/(Top 100)/Closer/Top 250 Overall

1) Josh Donaldson TOR – Billy Beane got robbed. 2016 Projection: 112/34/107/.285/5

2) Nolan Arenado COL – Jacked 42 homers in monster 2015. Expect more of the same in 2016. 2016 Projection: 92/35/116/.283/3

3) Manny Machado BAL – Wrote about Machado in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Shortstops post. 2016 Projection: 94/31/89/.281/15

4) Kris Bryant CHI-NL – Can easily end up the best player on this list. Strikeouts keep him at #4. 2016 Projection: 90/32/108/.273/11

5) Todd Frazier CHI-AL – The trade to Chicago doesn’t move the needle much in either direction. 4-category player with a low AVG. 2016 Projection: 81/30/93/.260/11

6) Miguel Sano MIN – Strikeouts create a lot of risk, but the upside is elite. 9 games at 3B in 2015. 2016 Projection: 82/29/91/.255/5

7) Matt Carpenter STL – Wrote about Carpenter in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 97/21/79/.277/3

8) Anthony Rendon WASH – Wrote about Rendon in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 87/19/77/.284/9

9) Adrian Beltre TEX – Triple-slashed, .318/.376/.509, and hit 11 homers in 74 2nd half games. Don’t stick a fork in him just yet. 2016 Projection: 80/22/88/.290/1

10) Kyle Seager SEA – Set it and forget it. Model of consistency.  2016 Projection: 82/25/77/.267/7

11) Maikel Franco PHI – Talented young slugger. Hitting in the weak Phillies lineup drops him a bit. 2016 Projection: 76/23/87/.274/3

12) Evan Longoria TB – At one point it looked like he was on his way to being one of the best players in baseball, but it was not to be. Still a good player. 2016 Projection: 73/24/84/.267/2

13) Mike Moustakas KC – Finally had the breakout everyone was waiting for. Launched 15 homers in 69 2nd half games. 2016 Projection: 71/23/85/.272/1

14) David Wright NYM – 33 years old going on 40. Will be limited to 130 games this season. 2016 Projection: 77/18/73/.285/6

15) Matt Duffy SFG – Wrote about Duffy in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 70/11/67/.286/14

16) Daniel Murphy WASH – Wrote about Murphy in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 70/17/73/.287/5

17) Jung-ho Kang PIT – Wrote a Jung-ho Kang, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper post. 2016 Projection: 70/20/70/.284/4

18) Justin Turner LAD – The high AVG is for real, but the 20+ homer power might not be. 2016 Projection: 71/15/73/.291/4

19) Brett Lawrie CHI-AL – Wrote about Lawrie in my 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Second Basemen post. 2016 Projection: 69/18/74/.267/7

20) Nick Castellanos DET – In an era where top prospects produce immediately once reaching the majors, Castellanos has fallen short. There are some positive signs, though, as he put up an .800 OPS in the 2nd half last season. 2016 Projection: 70/18/80/.274/1

By Michael Halpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@ImaginaryBrickW)