Andres Chaparro – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on October 7, 2024October 7, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Washington Nationals 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2025 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, AFL/Winter League Updates, the Top 100+ FYPD rankings, Top 500+ Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000+ Dynasty Rankings. Here is the Washington Nationals 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-END OF SEASON 2024 TOP 322 PROSPECTS RANKS
-END OF SEASON 2024 438 DYNASTY RANKS
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS with full scouting reports and prime projections
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG!
-SPREADSHEETS
-OFF-SEASON CONTENT! – Dynasty Team Reports (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk) , Deep Positional Rankings, Predicting Future Prospect Lists, Fall/Winter League Updates, Top 100+ FYPD Ranks, Top 500+ Prospects Ranks, Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks & so much more!

Pitchers

DJ Herz – WAS, LHP, 24.3 – What is the victory lapping etiquette for dynasty baseball? In a redraft league, the etiquette is much easier to figure out. Wait until the end of the season and you are safe. But for dynasty, you are wading in much more treacherous waters. Enter DJ Herz, who I named a major target in 2022, only to back off of a bit coming into 2023 and 2024. Now that he broke out this season with a 4.16 ERA (3.29 xERA) and 27.7/9.4 K%/BB% in 88.2 IP, can I claim he’s a “hit”? It feels weird to claim he’s a hit when most people probably dropped him or sold low over those last 2 years. On the other hand, when ranking prospects, you can’t truly know if someone is a hit or miss until several years down the line. Or maybe most importantly, does anyone give a crap? (I ruminate about this more in the Strategy/Thoughts section down below). At this point, the past is behind us, and it’s time to figure out how to value Herz going forward. And my advice is to value him pretty damn high. His 93.5 MPH fastball is a legitimate elite weapon which he throws 54.2% of the time. The pitch notched a 30.5% whiff% which was 4th best amongst starting pitchers. That alone makes him a high K, mid-rotation fantasy starter, and well, to be honest, that is actually all he has. His slider and changeup are decent and mostly get the job done, but they both grade out as slightly below average. And of course the biggest red flag is his below average control. It took a step forward in the majors this year, which sparked this breakout, but it was getting worse towards the end of the season, and it adds in a healthy dose of risk to his profile. I don’t believe Herz will be hyped to death this off-season, making him a relatively reasonably priced target if you to chase upside (control and/or secondaries improving can unlock near top of the fantasy rotation upside), but make sure to factor in the real risk (you can only be so good with a 12% BB% and mediocre secondaries). 2025 Projection: 9/3.73/1.25/181 in 155 IP

MacKenzie Gore – WAS, LHP, 26.1 – Here we go again. Gore is making himself comfortable in the breakout waiting room, and I just hope he doesn’t end up stuck there. The good news is that he definitely took a nice step forward this season with career bests in ERA (3.90), xERA (4.19), Barrel% (6.8%), BB% (8.9%), whiff% (28.6%), and velocity (96 MPH fastball). Those are 6 major categories to take a step forward in. You can see just from those stats that the ingredients are all in here to have a true explosion in 2025, and Gore would be far from the first top of the rotation starter to take a few years before getting to that lofty level (Scherzer, Wheeler, Gausman to name a few). But it also feels like a copout to just name 3 aces who weren’t as good earlier in their career as a reason to expect an explosion from Gore, and after predicting that breakout for Gore the last 2 years to mediocre results, it feels too much like wishful thinking to go too hard after it for a 3rd year. He’s more of a Top 300 dynasty asset for me rather than a Top 200 one. 2025 Projection: 11/3.82/1.34/195 in 173 IP

Hitters

James Wood – WAS, OF, 22.7 – I don’t need to do any deep victory lap philosophizing when it comes to if James Wood is a hit for me, because I can say without a shadow of a doubt that I can victory lap the hell out of James Wood. I named him a major First Year Player Draft Target in his draft year, and then I ranked him all the way up at 68th overall in the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. I couldn’t help but buy into that beastly power/speed combo from a 6’7” frame, and the swing was always short enough to bet on the hit tool ending up good enough. And that is exactly how it played out in his rookie year with an elite 92.8/96.9 MPH AVG/FB EV, a plus 28.7 ft/sec sprint, a well above average 21% Chase%, and a not in the true danger zone 29.6% whiff%. It resulted in 9 homers, 14 steals, a .264 BA and a 120 wRC+ in 79 games. The 2.4 degree launch subdued the homer power a bit, but he hits the ball so hard that he’s launch proof, and that number is certainly coming up in the future. He’s basically Elly De La Cruz with better plate skills and half as many steals. There are very few players I’m parting with Wood for. He ranked 13th overall on the Top 438 End of Season 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. 2025 Projection: 89/24/87/.251/.346/.474/26 Prime Projection: 105/32/105/.268/.364/.518/28

CJ Abrams – WAS, SS, 24.6 – Washington sent Abrams to his room like an unruly teenager to think about what he’s done after partying at a casino until 8 AM when he had a 1 PM game. Maybe he was exhibiting this type of behavior all season and it was a long time coming. But maybe this is also what a normal 23/24 year old does, and at that point of the season, the Nationals were so far out of it. I say give the kid a break, but either way, I’m not letting it impact his considerable dynasty value. His power has been slowly but surely ticking up with a 90.9 MPH FB/LD EV in 2022, followed by a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 2023, and finally putting up a very respectable 93.6 MPH FB/LD EV in 2024. It resulted in his first 20 homer season in 138 games, and at a still wiry 6’2” with a 15.1 degree launch, this is just the beginning of his power ascension as he enters his mid 20’s. He wasn’t as good on the bases this year as he was in 2023 (31 for 43), but he finished the season 17 for 19 on steal attempts in his final 52 games, so I think that was just a small sample aberration. And really his biggest demerit is that the plate skills haven’t shown any improvement since he broke into the majors with a 21.3/6.6 K%/BB% and 35.4% Chase%. He can be an easy top 50 dynasty asset even if the plate approach never improves, putting up several 20/30 seasons, but if he wants to take the next step into near elite status, he needs to improve in that area. And entering his age 24 year old season, I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect improvement there. Abrams is just getting started. 2025 Projection: 89/23/76/.263/.329/.450/35

Bullpen

Kyle Finnegan – WAS, Closer, 33.7 – We’ve been waiting nervously for Finnegan to get traded out of the closer role for 2 years, but now that Washington looks on the brink of contention, he just might be off the trade block (famous last words). He’s not very good, but he mostly gets the job done with a 3.68 ERA, 38 saves, and a 22.1/8.9 K%/BB% in 63.2 IP. He has the big velocity with a 97.2 MPH fastball that he throws 67.6% of the time, but he doesn’t have a great secondary and the control is average at best. Even if he doesn’t get traded, Washington is liable to bring in someone else to close, he’s in the final year of team control, and he’s 33 years old. He’s a very low end closer option. 2025 Projection: 4/3.66/1.32/63/30 saves in 65 IP

Washington Nationals 2025 Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings

1) Dylan Crews – WAS, OF, 23.1 – Crews’ dynasty value/hype has seen some fluctuations since being drafted, but the thing that was quietly flying under the radar, was how good he was on the bases, and for fantasy, that has a major impact on his value. He stole 25 bases in 100 games in the upper minors, and then he stole 12 bags with a double plus 29.3 ft/sec sprint in his 31 game MLB debut. He only stole 6 bases in 71 games his junior year of college, and then went 3 for 7 in his pro debut, so I can’t blame anyone for not expecting it, but it’s clearly a real skill he has, and it makes Crews insanely exciting for fantasy again. He combines the speed with above average contact rates (19.7% K%), above average chase rates (26.6%), and plus power (94.7 MPH FB/LD EV in the majors and a 90.2 MPH EV in the minors). The only quibble in his profile is the low launch (8.8 degrees), but he has the skillset to make that work, and he only needs to raise it a bit higher to be in a completely fine range, which I’m betting he will. The Langford vs. Crews debate might not end up as easy as we thought, and with Crews not really being considered in that lofty tier anymore, there could be a buy window here this off-season. If you can buy off the relatively subdued hype and .641 MLB OPS, I would be all over it. He’s a Top 50 dynasty asset in my book. 2025 Projection: 81/21/76/.259/.334/.448/26 Prime Projection: 94/27/97/.278/.359/.481/28

2) Travis Sykora – WAS, RHP, 20.11 – The way I see it, it’s a two man race between Thomas White and Travis Sykora to be the top rated pitching prospect in baseball by this time next year, and while I have White as the favorite because he did it at High-A for most of the season, Sykora simply didn’t get that opportunity. All he could do was obliterate the competition that was put in front of him, and obliterate he did with a 2.33 ERA and 39.2/8.2 K%/BB% in 85 IP at Single-A. He’s a 6’6”, 232 pound beast with 3 at least plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, slider and splitter. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he throws the ball over the plate, and he doesn’t have the most athletic looking delivery, but it’s not unathletic either. Age to level doesn’t matter nearly as much for pitchers as it does hitters, but I do think it’s still something to take into account, so him being 20 years old at Single-A makes me want to see it at higher levels before truly crowning him. Regardless, this is easy ace upside, and his hype is going to blow up in 2025. He’s the type you might want to stick your neck out to grab if he’s out there in your off-season prospect draft. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 15/3.31/1.12/225 in 185 IP

3) Jarlin Susana – WASH, RHP, 21.1 – I called Susana the Hunter Greene starter pack that was still sitting in the plastic, waiting to be put together coming into this season, and well, he started to assemble those pieces in 2024. After a rough start, he caught fire, putting up a 2.79 ERA with a 39.4/9.3 K%/BB% in his final 77.1 IP split between Single-A and High-A. The Greene comp is actually extremely on point for the similarly sized, 6’6”, 235 pound Susana with an upper 90’s fastball that doesn’t get enough movement, a double plus slider, below average control, and a developing splitter. The improvements that Greene made this season (turning the splitter into a legit third weapon and improving his fastball movement) are the same improvements Susana has to make as he continues to climb the ladder. He also needs to continue to improve his control/command, as he can start to look a big relievery at times. There is still plenty of risk here, but there is legit top of the rotation upside, and he could have a soft landing spot as an elite closer. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 12/3.55/1.26/187 in 165 IP

4) Brady House – WAS, 3B, 21.10 – House hasn’t had the elite prospect explosion we hoped for when he was a hyped high school bat, and his .241/.297/.402 triple slash with a 26.4/5.7 K%/BB% in 129 games split between Double-A and Triple-A isn’t all that impressive either, but when evaluating prospects, you have to have an eye towards who they can be, rather than who they are today, and House can definitely still be a middle of the order power bat at peak. His power did take a step forward this year with 19 homers, and he’s still a relatively svelte 6’4”, so I think there is more power coming when he gets into his man muscles years. Keep in mind he was just 21 years old in the upper minors, while hyped, similarly aged college bats were struggling or not exactly dominating in the lower minors. He needs to improve his hit tool and plate approach, which is why he isn’t ranked higher on this list, but he still looks on track to be that middle of the order power bat we thought he could be. The Nationals 3B job is also wide open for the taking in both the short term and the long term. 2025 Projection: 28/9/36/.230/.291/.408/4 Prime Projection: 73/24/84/.253/.326/.457/9

5) Seaver King – WAS, SS, 21.11 – You know how I often say that if you hit it hard, hit if often, and are fast that good things tend to happen, well, that is King’s game to a T. Selected 10th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’0”, 195 pound King has a lightning quick swing that is very powerful, controlled and produces very hard contact. He can spray hard liners all over the field. He combines that with plus to double plus speed with 31 steals in 33 attempts in 149 career college games. And finally, tack on tons of contact with a 12% K% in 60 games in the SEC. That is a profile that consistently makes things happen on a baseball field. There isn’t a ton of game power because of his hitting profile, but he still jacked out 16 homers in college, and he’s an aggressive hitter with high chase rates. That profile completely transferred to Single-A, both the good (.295 BA, 14.4% K%, and 10 steals in 20 games), and the bad (0 homers with a 53.8% GB%). The hit tool and speed give him a high floor, and if he can raise his launch, the raw power is in there to give him some legit upside too. He ranked 16th overall on the Top 56 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.274/.330/.427/26

6) Cade Cavalli – WAS, RHP, 26.7 – Cavalli underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2023, and he never made it back on an MLB mound in 2024 at all. He barely made it back on a minor league mound with 8.1 IP at High-A and rookie ball after getting shutdown with a “dead arm.” It’s just a reminder that coming back from Tommy John surgery is not always smooth, and while it’s not a death knell by any means, it’s not always a cake walk right back into prime form. Here is how I finished his blurb in last year’s Top 1,000, and honestly, it’s still exactly how I feel now: “When healthy, the 6’4”, 240 pound Cavalli does have plenty to be excited about with big time stuff (95+ MPH fastball) and three quality secondaries in his curve, changeup and slider. The control is inconsistent and his minor league career was a bit up and down, so combined with the Tommy John risk, he’s not someone I’m really targeting.” The one thing he does have going for him is that there is plenty of opportunity in Washington’s rotation, so the leash should be very long for him to shake the rust off. 2025 Projection: 4/4.38/1.37/94 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.03/1.32/162 in 159 IP

7) Elijah Green – WAS, OF, 21.4 – I almost wrote Green off completely this year after putting up a quite ridiculous 44% K% in 106 games at Single-A as a 20 year old, and honestly, maybe I still should, but it’s so important to shoot for upside in the vast majority of dynasty leagues when it comes to prospects, that I believe his upside is still worth the shot in this area of the rankings. Even with that stupid strikeout rate, he still slashed .262/.342/.487 with 9 homers, 25 steals (only one caught stealing), and a 41.4/10.4 K%/BB% in his last 51 games. I don’t even want to do that whole “if he can improve his hit tool” spiel because I couldn’t even do it while keeping a straight face with that dumb stupid strikeout rate, but on the say 5-10% chance he can get that strikeout rate into the 30-35% range by his mid 20’s, there is dangerous power/speed combo lurking in here to do the rest at an uber athletic 6’3′, 225 pounds. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 59/21/72/.221/.302/.418/17

8) Luke Dickerson – WAS, SS, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, the 6’0”, 190 Dickerson is a strong kid who won a state championship as as hockey player. You can see that toughness in the box with a powerful righty swing, and he combines that with good athleticism and speed. He signed for $3.8 million, which was the 21st highest signing bonus in the class and tells you how much Washington loved this kid. I do prefer a few other high school bats that got drafted in that 2nd round area over Dickerson, but it’s hard to argue with that signing bonus, and his talent is right there with them. He ranked 46th overall on the Top 56 2025 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 76/20/79/.260/.330/.440/15

9) Alex Clemmey – WAS, LHP, 19.8 – I’ve been a sucker for a funky lefty delivery since the days of Josh Hader being one of the very first sleeper posts I’ve ever written back in 2015/16, and when you combine that with nasty stuff, it has all the makings of an upside pitching prospect that is worth taking the extra risk on. Clemmey is a projectable 6’6” with a mid 90’s fastball, a nasty, bat missing breaking ball, and a developing changeup that led to a 31.5% K% in 92.1 IP at Single-A. The 16.1% BB%, 4.58 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP aren’t nearly as impressive, and shows there is a long way to go with a lot of risk for him to reach his high K, mid rotation starter upside, but like with Hader, Clemmey has a soft landing spot as a potentially impact high leverage reliever as well. He was also 18 years old for most of the season, so him being raw was the expectation. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 9/3.91/1.34/180 in 150 IP

10) Andres Chaparro – WAS, 1B, 25.11 – I fear that Chaparro ends up a good but not great short side of a platoon 1B/DH considering the .551 OPS in 87 PA vs righties in his MLB debut, but Washington doesn’t have a deep system, and they also have opportunity at 1B/DH depending on what they do this off-season. Chaparro also has a good enough contact/power profile to make a fantasy impact if he does get the playing time. He hit 23 homers with a 17.9% K% in 105 games at Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with 4 homers and a 18.2% K% in 132 PA. He doesn’t crush the ball, but he hits it hard enough, and he has a lift and pull profile to get the most out of his power. It’s most likely a bench bat long term, but if he makes it through the off-season with a job, he’s not the worst guy to have on your team. 2025 Projection: 41/13/50/.241/.316/.430/2

Just Missed

11) Robert Hassell – WAS, OF, 23.8

12) Cayden Wallace – WAS, 3B, 23.7

13) Yohandy Morales – WAS, 1B/3B, 23.6

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It’s no secret that I enjoy a good victory lap like Wade Boggs on horseback taking a victory lap around Yankee Stadium after beating the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Like Boggs, I also eat chicken before I write every article, and I also drink 107 beers on a flight before going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles just hours later. Come to think of it, maybe that was CJ Abrams problem. Not that he partied until 8 am, but that he went 0 for 3 right after that. Dude, we all know that if you are going to be a rebel, you better produce. Maybe he did deserve that punishment after all ;). Now where was I? Oh yea, victory lapping. While I do believe in celebrating your hits, I also believe in taking the walk of shame for your misses, so after horseback victory lapping James Wood and half ass victory lapping DJ Herz in this post, let’s kick off the first Dynasty Thoughts/Strategy section of the off-season by finding lessons in who I consider to be my biggest miss, Shota Imanaga. I had Imanaga pegged as a good, but not great MLB pitcher, giving him a projection of 11/3.91/1.22/175 in 160 IP. He ended up going 15/2.91/1.02/173.1 in 173.1 IP. I believe where I went wrong was that I overrated fastball velocity, and while to my credit, the 91.7 MPH fastball actually didn’t miss that many bats (17.5% whiff%) or induce weak contact (91.2 MPH EV with .327 xwOBA), it was still a positive value pitch with a 52% usage rate, and it came with elite control, an elite secondary (splitter), a diverse pitch mix, and a history of ace production in the 2nd toughest league in the world. I shouldn’t have let a low 90’s fastball blind me to how good and established the rest of the profile was, and also to the fact that the fastball was still pretty good despite the low velocity. This wasn’t my only miss, but I believe that every other miss I had, my process was good and I don’t regret my take on them. Imanaga is the only one where I’m disappointed in my evaluation, and I will be taking those lessons with me headed into 2025.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 14, 2022November 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)