Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The Red Sox have been smack dab in the middle of Hot Stove season with their blockbuster Garrett Crochet trade, and because I already did the White Sox Team Report, I’m going to include Montgomery, Teel and Meidroth in these rankings. I’m also going to include Garrett Crochet in the MLB section. The only rules to these Team Reports are that there are no rules ;). I also go over all of the Hot Stove action from the last week or so in the Strategy/Thoughts section below. But first, here is the Boston Red Sox 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Hitters

Triston Casas – BOS, 1B, 25.3 – Casas missed 4 months of the season after suffering torn cartilage in his ribs in late April. I’ve had two pretty big rib injuries in my life, once playing tackle football with my knucklehead friends when we were like 18 years old (no pads, just pickup tackle), and once playing flag football in my law school league. I guess maybe the lesson is that tackle football isn’t any more dangerous than flag football 😉 … but point being, when you hurt your ribs, any movement at all can be extremely painful. It’s not surprising that Casas was rusty when he returned in mid August, but by the end of the season, he was starting to hit his stride with 5 homers and a 1.026 OPS in is final 12 games. The rib injury was a small bump in the road, but that was all it was as he’s still on the path to being one of the top slugging 1B in baseball. He swings a double plus 74.6 MPH bat, which is really all you need to know about how legit his power is. His 90.2/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV also backs up how elite his power is, and he’s never had any launch issues in his career, so there are zero worries there either. The only worry is that the hit tool ends up below average with a 32.2% whiff%, but it was better in 2023 (28.1% whiff%), and even with a below average hit tool, he will still be a beast with high OBP’s (12.3% BB%). Buy any discount you can on Casas, especially in OBP and 6+ hitting cat leagues. He’s going to be a monster. – 2025 Projection: 86/32/94/.253/.348/.514/1

Wilyer Abreu – BOS, OF, 25.9 – Back on August 3rd, 2023, literally mere moments before Abreu went on a crazy run at Triple-A that ended up with him raking in the majors, I got this feeling about him that I just couldn’t shake, naming him a target and writing, “there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing.” … and now that we have bat tracking data, I see why I just couldn’t shake how much I loved his swing, and it’s because not only is it smooth, but it’s lightning fast with a near elite 74.6 MPH bat speed. It’s no wonder he’s kept on raking in the bigs right through 2024 with a 114 wRC+ in 132 games. He uses that swing to absolutely crush the ball with a 50.5% Hard Hit%, 11.1% Barrel%, 91.6 MPH EV,  and a 19.2 degree launch. It only resulted in 15 homers in 132 games, but that is so clearly on the very low end of his true talent, and he racked up 33 doubles. With that swing and batted ball data, there is zero doubt his bat is legit, but there are reasons to remain cautious. For one, he was horrible vs. lefties (.532 OPS in 67 PA), and especially with how deep Boston is, he looks like a strict platoon bat. The other big issue is the hit tool as he had a 28% K% and .229 xBA (.253 BA). The 29.6% whiff% isn’t too bad, so I’m not concerned the hit tool is going to tank or anything, but it’s clearly below average. He likes to run a bit with 8 steals, which isn’t huge, but it’s a nice little boost, and he’s a really good right fielder, so his glove will certainly help keep him on the field. I would be absolutely all over him if he could hit lefties or if he was in a situation where he would get the leash to get better against them, but I don’t see that in Boston. That leaves him as solid dynasty asset (Top 200-250 range), rather than a truly coveted one. 2025 Projection: 69/20/71/.251/.325/.465/9

 Jarren Duran – BOS, OF, 28.7 – Duran’s hit tool and plate approach have improved every year of his 4 year career, and considering how electric of a player he is, that is all he need to go nuclear. He slashed .285/.342/.492 with 21 homers, 34 steals and a 21.8/7.3 K%/BB% in 160 games. He has elite speed with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint, he hits the ball very hard with a 90.8 MPH EV, and he has plus bat speed with a 73.6 MPH swing. There is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers to say this year was a fluke, and with how he’s improved every year of his career (48 wRC+ in 2021, 77 wRC+ in 2022, 120 wRC+ in 2023, 129 wRC+ in 2024), who is to say he can’t do it again in 2025. I’m all in. He ranked 23rd overall on the Top 25 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings which is free on the Brick Wall (full Top 135 Sneak Peek is on Patreon). 2025 Projection: 101/23/83/.280/.341/.476/33

Pitchers

Garrett Crochet – BOS, LHP, 25.9 – Paul Skenes is the no doubt #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. I’m not arguing that … buuuuuuuuuuuut … what if Crochet is actually better than him? He put up a better K% (35.1% vs. 33.1%), BB% (5.5% vs. 6.2%), Chase% (33.5% vs. 30.9%), and a much better whiff% (33.0% vs. 28.7%). His 97.2 MPH 4-seamer put up a 31.4% whiff% while Skenes’ 98.8 MPH 4-seamer put up a 24.2% whiff%. Crochet’s cutter put up a 32.7% whiff% while Skenes’ sinker notched a 29.3% whiff%. Crochet’s sweeper notched a 42.7% whiff% while Skenes’ sweeper notched a 22.6% whiff% and his curve notched a 33.7% whiff%. They are both beastly athletes. I described the 6’6”, 245 pound Crochet as a WWE Ballerina in my March Mailbag Podcast. With Chicago, he couldn’t touch Skenes in wins, but he’s in Boston now, and just judging who is the better pitcher, I wouldn’t be so sure the answer is Skenes. Now, Skenes dusted him on ERA (3.58 vs. 1.96), and even though their xERA’s were much much closer (2.83 vs. 2.50), I do think that matters. Crochet also has more of a track record of control problems than Skenes does. Like I said, Skenes is the undeniable #1 dynasty pitcher in the game … but maybe … he won’t be at the end of 2025. Crochet ranked 29th overall on the Top 135 Sneak Peek of the 2025 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings. – 2025 Projection: 15/3.03/1.03/230 in 170 IP

Tanner Houck – BOS, RHP, 28.9 – Houck put up a 3.12 ERA in 178.2 IP, but let’s see what all the ERA estimators say about that. SIERA isn’t buying it at 3.73. xERA hates his guts at 4.11. xFIP is a bit more forgiving, but still not all the way in at 3.58. And then there is the OG ERA estimator, FIP, and FIP is kinda digging it at 3.32. FIP isn’t cool anymore with all the new kids on the block, but FIP was banging back before xERA was even a thought, so maybe we put some respect back on it’s name. Houck’s walk rate took a big step forward, moving into plus territory with a 6.5% BB% (8.9% in 2023). His sweeper was the 5th most valuable sweeper in baseball. His splitter was the 5th most valuable splitter in baseball. And his sinker was an above average pitch that kept the ball on the ground with a 2 degree launch. With a 215 NFBC ADP, nobody is really buying in, but maybe FIP is on to something? I can’t deny that I too don’t buy it, because strikeouts are king for fantasy, and he simply didn’t miss enough bats with a 20.7% K% and 22.6% whiff%, but he has a career 26.7% whiff%, so it’s not like the ability isn’t in there. I agree with the masses to not buy into his career year, but I have the old wise FIP whispering in my ear to maybe not be so skeptical. I’m still not buying, but I hear ya, FIP, and I will give you your respect if Houck does repeat his big year, or maybe even builds off it. 2025 Projection: 11/3.67/1.19/159 in 172 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Kristian Campbell – BOS, 2B/OF, 22.3 – Campbell possesses one of the most visually disgusting swings I have ever seen, and I mean that in the best way possible. It looks like he literally unhinges his shoulder to turn his body into a cannon, absolutely unfurling on the baseball. Here is what I wrote about a homer Campbell hit in early September in the in-season Dynasty Baseball Rundowns: “on his latest homer, I think he dislocated his shoulder with one of the most bad intentions swings I’ve seen.”  Underscoring my visual evaluation of that explosive shoulder movement is that shortly after that homer he hit the IL with a lat strain, which is right under the shoulder blades. Campbell underwent a well documented swing change and bat speed training to unlock more power last off-season, which was obviously successful beyond anybody’s wildest imagination, so let’s just hope that it’s not going to cause more injuries. That is the only small thing that is even rattling around in my brain as a negative, because the season he just had was nothing short or spectacular. He slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers, 24 steals, and a 19.9/14.3 K%/BB% in 115 games spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He was just as dominant in the upper minors as he was at High-A with across the board destruction. He hits it hard, he has a good feel to hit, he has a good approach, he has size (6’3”, 191 pounds), he has bat speed, he can lift it, and he has speed. You can be hesitant to fully buy in because it feels like he came out of nowhere, but he put up a 1.033 OPS in 45 games in the ACC in 2023, a .932 OPS in 58 games in 2022 in the Northwoods League, and then a .911 OPS in 22 games at mostly High-A in his pro debut, so it’s not his fault that everyone underrated him. He always had a good feel to hit and good approach, and he always had the frame and athleticism to tack on more power, so I’m not going to hold it against him that he wasn’t more hyped (4th round pick in 2023). He still didn’t lift and pull the ball a ton with an under 40% Pull% and under 30% FB%, but he knew when to pick his spots (as you saw with that homer video above), and he has the type of profile that can thrive without an extreme lift and pull profile. I’m all in on Campbell. He’s an elite prospect who has a chance to break camp in the bigs. 2025 Projection: 68/16/61/.252/.324/.423/19 Prime Projection: 98/26/89/.277/.356/.478/26

2) Roman Anthony – BOS, OF, 20.11 – Because the rule of prospecting is that if you are even the smallest, tiniest, teeny bit lower on a prospect than other prospectors (most to all have Anthony over Campbell, while I have it the other way around), you must bash that prospect with an overly critical lens, let me start with the negatives here. For one, Anthony isn’t the best base stealer with a career 38 steals in 52 attempts (he was 21 for 28 last year), so there is risk that he doesn’t run as much in the majors as we hope. Secondly, he hits the ball on the ground a lot with an around 50% GB% in 2024, which could limit his homer upside. And lastly, there is some hit tool risk with a 23.5% K%. Now that we got that out of the way, let me just say that I obviously love Anthony. He’s a legit 50/50 coin flip with Campbell, and he’s a no doubt elite prospect. He started the season as a 19 year old in the upper minors and obliterated both Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .291/.396/.498 with 18 homers, 21 steals, and a 23.5/14.6 K%/BB% in 119 games. He crushes the ball, he has speed, he has size, he has elite age to level production, and he hit both lefties and righties well in 2024. He’s as close to a Gunnar Henderson clone as there is, and if you wanted to put him even as the #1 prospect in baseball, I wouldn’t argue with you. He’s going to be a beast. 2025 Projection: 46/12/41/.250/.323/.420/8 Prime Projection: 92/31/98/.272/.363/.493/18

3) Marcelo Mayer – BOS, SS, 22.3 – Mayer was the 4th overall pick in the draft and just put up a 142 wRC+ in his age 21 year old season at Double-A, and the hype still feels so subdued on him. He might have to get used to that, because it seems like he’s setting up for a Bryan Reynolds-like fantasy career. Really good, but not good enough for anyone to seemingly care to really gush over him. That 142 wRC+ came with only 8 homers and 13 steals in 77 games. He did it on the back of the hit tool with a .307 BA and 19.7/9.0 K%/BB%, but the .367 BABIP did some of that heavy lifting, and his strikeout rates have been on the high side throughout his career, so you can’t really bank on a truly elite hit tool long term. His sweet lefty swing at 6’3” is what got him drafted so highly, and that swing is still special with power and quickness, but it’s geared more for all around hitting than pure homer power with a 47.4% GB% and 26.5% FB%. He’s a good baserunner, but he’s not a burner, so you can’t count on huge steal totals either. Reynolds is really the perfect comp with his 162 game career averages of a .276 BA, .352 OBP, 25 homers and 8 steals. Maybe playing with Boston instead of Pittsburgh will garner him more hype in the long run, but fantasy wise, that equals a really good fantasy player who never quite reaches great levels. 2025 Projection: 28/8/33/.256/.318/.415/6 Prime Projection: 91/25/93/.276/.352/.470/11

*I know that Montgomery and Teel are no longer on the Sox, they are now on the Sox, but I’m including them here because I already did the Chicago write-up, and I didn’t want to skip them completely in the Team Reports … Meidroth I’m fine with skipping 😉 … kidding … sorta, he’s fine, I like him (and I included him below too).

4) Braden Montgomery – CHW, OF, 22.0 – Selected 12th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, there was a lot of talk about Montgomery dropping his righty swing to hit exclusively lefty. That doesn’t really seem like what you want to hear from a highly drafted college bat, but the lefty swing is so smooth and powerful I get why it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal overall. He also had a 20% K% which is substantially higher than the college bats drafted before him. Maybe that is partly why he slipped a bit to 12th overall, and also why Boston was willing to include him in the Crochet trade. The broken ankle which he suffered pre draft on June 8th was also likely a major reason for the drop. So he certainly has some risk with hit tool, platooning and injury, but he also has very major power upside. He’s 6’2”, 220 pounds and he smashed 27 homers with a 1.187 OPS in 61 games in the SEC. He’s been smashing homers his entire career with 62 homers in 187 games split between the Pac 12 and SEC. He absolutely destroys the baseball with huge exit velocities. That gives him a no doubt carrying tool that will make him a fantasy force. As for the trade, it really doesn’t change his value at all. The path to playing time is clearer, but it’s an organization downgrade and a future lineup downgrade. It’s also a ballpark downgrade. If anything, it makes me like him slightly less, but again, this really shouldn’t change his value. – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/28/91/.252/.333/.480/6

5) Kyle Teel – CHW, C, 23.2 – Teel was known as a high floor, lower ceiling, quick moving college catcher in last year’s FYPD, and that is exactly what he did in 2024. He slashed .288/.386/.433 with 13 homers, 12 steals, and a 23.0/13.5 K%/BB% in 112 games split between Double-A (145 wRC+) and Triple-A (97 wRC+). His 86.3 MPH EV at Triple-A isn’t super impressive, but he knows how to lift and pull it, so he should get the most out of his raw power. He’s also a good athlete who likes to run relative to other catchers, so that can help his fantasy value even if the homer totals aren’t huge. He had a crystal clear path to Boston’s starting catcher job of the future (and the present), but with his trade to Chicago, he now has to battle it out with Edgar Quero. You have to think Teel is the favorite for most of the at bats, but that might be a bad assumption, and at the end of the day, that will get decided on the field. The trade probably doesn’t change Teel’s dynasty value too much in the grand scheme of things, but it’s a ballpark hit, organization hit, and a bit of a path to playing time hit. – 2025 Projection: 31/7/34/.244/.311/.383/4 Prime Projection: 74/17/68/.268/.342/.430/9

6) Jhostynxon Garcia – BOS, OF, 22.3 – Garcia is one of my top prospect targets relative to perceived value, and he was one of several prospect targets I named in my End of Season Mailbag Podcast (Patreon). He has legit thunder in his bat with a quick and powerful righty swing that resulted in 23 homers in 107 games. He hits the ball really hard and he lifts it with all fields power. He’s also a good athlete who can play CF, and he’ll run a bit too with 17 steals. He started the year at Single-A and flew all the way through to Double-A by mid August. He wasn’t quite as good at Double-A as he was in the lower minors, but he still put up an above average 103 wRC+, and the most important thing is that his K rate didn’t skyrocket with a 19% K%. The hit tool and plate approach are certainly the biggest risk here with a 21.6/7.2 K%/BB% overall, but the K rate actually got better at each higher level, and he walked a ton in 2021-23, so he has that skill in there. His combination of power, athleticism and good OF defense is very enticing, and the hit tool was actually pretty decent this year. Boston is crowded, so he doesn’t have a path to playing time, but trades happen and injuries/ineffectiveness happens too, so he’ll get his shot eventually, and when he does, we could be looking at a guy who puts up big EV’s with a high launch, above average sprint, positive defense value, and good enough K rates. He can be a legit impact fantasy bat going for a price way under that right now. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/25/84/.247/.321/.458/12

7) Yoeilin Cespedes – BOS, SS/2B, 19.7 – Cespedes’ season ended on June 21st a broken hamate, but he was one of the top rookie ball breakouts before going down with the injury. He slashed .319/.400/.615 with 5 homers, 3 steals, and a 18.1/11.4 K%/BB% in 25 games. It was good for a 163 wRC+, and this was coming off the 145 wRC+ he put up in the DSL in 2023. He’s a lift and pull machine who takes absolute daddy hacks at the dish with a monster righty swing. He swings much bigger than his 5’8” size would indicate. I’m thinking the contact rates could take a step back in full season ball, but I believe in the power despite not being a huge human being. If the contact rates don’t take a step back, we could be looking at a very potent hit/power combo, and even if they do, he should remain a very good prospect. – ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.268/.329/.458/8

8) Franklin Arias – BOS, SS/2B, 19.4 – I have Arias in the same category that I had Jefferson Rojas in last off-season when Rojas was getting a ton of hype. They don’t jump off the screen, they don’t have huge size, and they don’t have huge tools, but they are just really good baseball players who do a lot of things well on a baseball field. I like them, and I definitely like them for real life, but they are probably a bit overrated for fantasy. Arias demolished rookie ball with a 181 wRC+ on the back of elite plate skills with a 17.5/16.5 K%/BB% in 51 games. He then got the call to Single-A and wasn’t as impressive, slashing .257/.311/.378 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.5/9.6 K%/BB% in 36 games. He was only 18, so that is still a very solid line, but I do think it underscores how the production might not look so outsized against more advanced competition. He hit 9 homers in 87 games, so he has some pop, and he stole 35 bags, so a he’s a good baserunner despite not being a burner. An up the middle glove with good contact rates and some power and speed is a really high floor real life profile, but we play fantasy, and we want upside. He’s a Top 100-ish fantasy prospect, so again, I like him, but I don’t think he’s a truly coveted one. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 83/18/68/.273/.338/.428/15

9) Chase Meidroth – CHW, 2B/3B/SS, 23.9 – Meidroth was part of the return for Garrett Crochet, and if Chicago didn’t think he has a very good chance of being a starting caliber player, why would they even want him included. It sure feels like he’s the favorite for the starting 2B job right out of the gate, which is a big boost to his value. Unfortunately, that big boost still doesn’t boost him very high in my book. The power is lacking with only 7 homers, a 5 degree launch, and a 2.2% Barrel% in 122 games at Triple-A, and so is the speed with 13 steals in 19 attempts. An elite plate approach is his game with a 12.7/18.8 K%/BB%, which led to a .293 BA, .437 OBP, and a 132 wRC+. His 88.6 MPH EV also isn’t bad, so while it hasn’t led to homers, it could be good enough to maintain the high BA/OBP on the MLB level. If he were potentially hitting atop a really good lineup, I could see real fantasy value here, but in the White Sox lineup, the fantasy value is likely to be lacking for the next few seasons. I can see a path to a solid fantasy player, but it’s not a journey I’m looking to go on. – 2025 Projection: 63/11/49/.255/.320/.386/7 Prime Projection: 84/15/61/.276/.352/.416/9

10) Miguel Bleis – BOS, OF, 21.1 – We already knew that Bleis was not going to be that rocket ship elite prospect that we hoped for after his disappointing 2023 season, and as often happens with these uber talented, close to a breakout but never quite breaks out prospects (see Alex Ramirez), they can just sit in the breakout waiting room for years, sometimes all the way into their late 20’s. So I fear Bleis is going to get comfortable in this breakout waiting room, but that is where he is after another mediocre at best season. He conquered Single-A with a 123 wRC+, but he was a 20 year old repeating the level, and he struggled when he got to the more age appropriate High-A with a 70 wRC+ in 50 games. That hit tool is still quite raw with a .221 BA on the season. The good news is that the upper echelon talent is still here with 11 homers, 38 steals, and a lift and pull profile. The hit tool isn’t good, but a 21.4/9.1 K%/BB% isn’t too bad. He also has a good glove in the OF. Is he just Alex Ramirez 2.0? Probably. But even Alex Ramirez can still breakout down the line, and Bleis certainly can too. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 67/20/71/.241/.309/.417/23

11) Yordanny Monegro – BOS, RHP, 22.5 – Monegro is one of my top pitching prospect targets relative his extreme lack of hype. He checks a hell of a lot of boxes with size (6’4”, 180 pounds), mid 90’s velocity, diverse pitch mix, nasty secondaries, and excellent production. He put up a 2.73 ERA with a 30.8/9.8 K%/BB% in 66 IP at High-A. He has an explosive righty delivery with a mid 90s 4-seamer, 2-seamer, a nasty change, and 2 good breaking balls in his slider and curve. He’s not a finished product as he has to continue to refine his control/command and all of his secondaries, plus he hasn’t thrown that many innings in his career (76 IP was a career high this year), but all of that is way over factored into his price. He’s a pretty special talent who has done nothing but dominate for the past two years when he’s been on the mound. If he keeps it up at Double-A, his price should take a big jump in 2025. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 11/3.76/1.21/169 in 160 IP

Just Missed

12) Luis Perales – BOS, RHP, 22.0

13) David Sandlin – BOS, RHP, 24.1

14) Jedixson Paez – BOS, RHP, 21.2

15) Juan Valera – BOS, RHP, 18.10 

16) Mikey Romero – BOS, 2B/SS, 21.3 – Here is what I wrote about Romero in the in-season Dynasty Rundowns towards the end of the season, and my thoughts remain the same: “The Red Sox 1st round pick, 24th overall, in 2022 has been almost completely ignored by everyone, including me, but Mikey is demanding our attention right now after calmly jacking out his 4th homer in 7 games since getting called up to Double-A as a 20 year old. He had 10 homers in 59 games at High-A. The reason he has been ignored is because he doesn’t have big raw power, he doesn’t have speed (1 steal all season), and his hit tool/plate approach isn’t particularly good either with a 21.9/5.0 K%/BB% in 60 games overall. Those deficiencies still make me pretty lackluster on his future potential, but production matters, and the guy is no doubt producing while being super young for the level. Maybe he can lift and pull his way into like Connor Norby type territory.” … He closed out the season at Double-A with 6 homers and a 33.8/2.7 K%/BB% in 16 games. That K rate is scary, but he was just 20 years old getting a taste of the upper minors. It was much better at High-A with a 21% K%. He’s getting no love, but the guy was picked 24th overall, he reached Double-A by 20 and showed he can do damage against upper minors pitching. I don’t think he’s a major dynasty asset either, but show the guy just a little bit of love, will ya. He ranked 86th overall on the Top 98 2025 Second Base Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). – ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 66/17/71/.245/.303/.412/3

17) Blaze Jordan – BOS, 3B/1B, 22.3 – I wasn’t sure Jordan deserved to crack this list with his 2nd straight year of poor performance at Double-A (98 wRC+ in 89 games), but that 12.1% K% is still pretty impressive. He has good raw power despite hitting only 7 homers, and being 21 years old at Double-A is still on the slightly young side. He doesn’t have much defensive value, but he can play a decent 3B, so it’s not like he doesn’t have any at all. I doubt he finds a role on the Red Sox, but I’ll take a shot on his contact/power combo at this point in the rankings. He ranked 75th overall on the Top 83 2025 First Base Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 67/18/76/.266/.315/.421/3

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Here is a round up of all the latest moves since my last roundup of all the latest moves. The Hot Stove is moving fast right now:

The Marlins trade Jesus Luzardo and Paul McIntosh to Philly for Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd

Man, I wish I had the Marlins in my dynasty leagues, giving up nearly elite upside starters for light hitting speedsters. I thought Caba was getting a bit overrated (certainly for fantasy), and obviously Philly didn’t view him as untouchable either. If you can pull the same sell high move for Caba that Philly just did, I would jump on it. As all dynasty owners know too well, I bet you there is another team out there going, “they sold Luzardo for that? My offer was 3 times better than that!!” hah. Also, hasn’t Miami acquired enough of these guys with Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez, Jared Serna, Max Acosta, Javier Sanoja, Vidal Brujan, and more. I mean, how many of them do you need? How about targeting some impact. I get they have more value in real life, but still. I’m probably being overly harsh as it’s not like Caba and Boyd are devoid of upside,  but they have 6 total homers in 314 career games between the two of them. As for Luzardo, he was already one of my favorite bounce back targets in 2025, and I like him even more now that a good team was willing to trade for him.

The Cubbies trade Cody Bellinger to the Yanks for Cody Poteet

This is a monster ballpark upgrade for Cody Bellinger. He goes from the 5th worst ballpark for lefty homers to the 7th best, and he needs all the help he can get with tons of flyballs and weak exit velocities. This is the exact ballpark that Bellinger can thrive in, and he’s coming from one that particularly depresses his skills. He had a .700 OPS at home vs. a .797 OPS on the road in 2024. I’m not saying you can bank on a monster season, but I am saying there is now some legit upside for it. His value gets a definite bump.

The Yankees sign Paul Goldschmidt for 1 year, $12.5 million

Once the Yankees lost Juan Soto, it was pretty clear they weren’t going to leave their 1B spot open, but signing Goldy to a one year deal is basically the best case scenario for Ben Rice. I already went over how much I like Rice, and without a long term option at 1B, that gives Rice 2025 to prove he should be the man in 2026 and beyond. Rice is a hold or cheap buy if you have the room on your roster or are in a rebuild. As for Goldy, his value doesn’t change as a still solid win now piece, but he’s a good reminder of how fast a players dynasty trade value can fall off as they get deeper into their 30’s. If you traded Goldy 2 years ago, or even last off-season, you could have gotten a pretty big return, but now, nobody is going to give you much. I’m just saying it could be a good time to put Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve on the market while their value is still solid. It’s better to sell a year early than a year late.

The Rays trade Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez to Oakland for Joe Boyle, Will Simpson, Jacob Watters and a Draft Pick

Leaving Tampa for Oakland is a big organization downgrade for Springs and Lopez, and that 100% isn’t only for development, that is for pitch calling, defensive alignment, etc … which all impacts production in a major way. But Tampa has a rotation logjam, so getting out is good for Springs in particular regardless of the downgrade. I don’t like him as much in Oakland without Tampa’s magic to maximize his skillset, and he already didn’t look great in 2024 with the velocity down, the K/BB rates down, and more elbow issues. He might be more name value than real value right now. I’m probably not buying unless he falls into my lap. As for the players going to Tampa, that is an upgrade for all of them. Boyle likely ends up in the bullpen, but a Tampa exec talked about being extra patient with guys like Boyle (huge upside), so who knows what Tampa can do. Simpson I already liked, cracking my 1B Rankings at 69th overall, and seeing Tampa target him in this return makes me like him even more.

The Rangers trade Nate Lowe to Washington for Robert Garcia and then signed Joc Pederson for 2 years, $37 million to essentially replace Lowe

Like every Nate Lowe dynasty owner, you only own Nate Lowe because you can’t figure out a better option. But Texas did the right thing, which is to just rip the band-aid off and move on. Lowe is a crutch, preventing you from thriving. Find your Jake Burger and Joc Pederson’s to replace the Nate Lowe’s on your team. The Nationals on the other hand were desperate enough for 1B that it made sense for them. Christian Walker and Goldy both seemed to reject them. Their former options were Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro, which I’m not even sure how you run an organization and end up with those two as your best options at 1B. So Lowe clearly makes sense for them. I was semi interested in Chaparro if he made it through the off-season with a shot at the 1B job, but that is dead now.

Astros sign Christian Walker for 3 years, $60 million

Walker will be 34 years old for the 2025 season and he was a late career breakout, but I don’t blame Houston for shelling out $60 mil over 3 years when you see that elite 75 MPH bat speed. This is a truly special power bat, and he has bat speed to spare to give him a gentle decline. We all know Houston is great for righty homers too. Walker remains an excellent win now piece. Houston has decided they don’t want to go full rebuild, which complicates the path for some of their most talented youngsters, but their OF is still wide open, so I think there is still room for their best to find jobs (Melton and Dezenzo, in particular).

Baltimore signed Tomoyuki Sugano for 1 year, $13 million

Sugana is a 35 year old who just put up an 18.3% K% in 156.2 IP in Japan, so we aren’t talking about big dynasty value here, but he can easily end up a solid win now piece. Here is Sugano himself talking about his arsenal and strategy in an MLB.com article by Adam Berry, “Obviously not a guy that throws 100 mph, but I’m very confident in my control, command, my pitch mix. That’s why I’ve had a lot of success in Japan. I’m not looking to really change anything now. I want to use my pitch selection, my pitch mix, my command to pitch in the States and see where it takes me from there.” That says it all as Sugano art of pitching’d his way to a 1.67 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 2024, and a 2.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his 1,873.1 IP career. The guy knows how to pitch, and while he’s not going to be an under 3 guy in MLB, I don’t see why his profile wouldn’t transfer. Baltimore wouldn’t have paid him $13 million if they didn’t think he could be effective. I would expect a #3/4 type starter with a high 3 ERA and low WHIP, but the lack of K’s and age still blunts his dynasty value. He’s probably more of a Top 400-500-ish dynasty asset with more value the deeper the league is.

The Guardians trade Josh Naylor to Arizona for Slade Cecconi and then signed Carlos Santana for 1 year, $12 million

Arizona was the 4th worst park for lefty homers while Cleveland was the 5th best. Naylor hits the ball hard enough where I wouldn’t panic, but that is a definite downgrade, and he was already coming off a career power season that was sure to regress. I thought he was getting a tad underrated even after his career year, because absolutely nobody is buying in, but now I’m hesitant to buy in as well. Cleveland turned right around and signed Carlos Santana, so any bump for Manzardo and Noel is mitigated, but a 39 year old Santana will be much easier to surpass than Naylor. It’s clear that Manzardo and Noel are the future (and probably the present too at DH/1B). As for Arizona, it now gets a bit more crowded for all of their fringe starters (Pavin Smith, Alek Thomas, JJ McCarthy, Blaze Alexander), but these guys were going to have to prove it on the field anyway to hold a job, and I still think the cream will rise here (Pavin Smith is the cream).

The Astros trade Kyle Tucker to Chicago for Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski

It was a no brainer for Chicago to flip Paredes to a team better suited to his particular set of skills, and Houston couldn’t be more perfect for him. He should get back to mid 20’s homers. This is a big boost for his fantasy value. Cam Smith had the raw power to profile anywhere, but this is still a big park upgrade for him too. And Hayden Wesneski gets a new team, new coaches, new voices etc … to try to unlock his still decent potential. He was actually pretty good last year with a whiff machine, double plus sweeper and 2 low to mid 90’s fastballs. Houston wouldn’t have traded for him if they didn’t see something they liked. Not big value here, but it’s something. And finally, the biggest piece in the deal, Kyle Tucker, is the least interesting. And you know what, that kinda tracks with his whole career of being underhyped. His value doesn’t change. So boring.

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Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
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Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
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-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

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Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Pitchers

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – I told you guys to put a star next to Justin Steele’s name as you were filling out the middle to back half of your fantasy rotation last off-season, and I’m going to tell you to do the same with Kutter Crawford this off-season. He shares some similarities which made me like Steele last off-season, but they aren’t really direct comps. Crawford’s control jumped to above average levels with a 6.8% BB%, and it allowed his 93.6 MPH fastball (.268 xwOBA with a 26% whiff%) and 88.6 MPH cutter (.295 xwOBA with a 24.2% whiff%) to play as plus pitches. He throws a legit 6 pitch mix with his sweeper, splitter, and slider thriving in limited usage. It all led to a 4.04 ERA (3.25 xERA) with a 25.6% K% in 129.1 IP. The floor is pretty high, and he has some very real upside. I really, really like Kutter as a very reasonably priced target. 2024 Projection: 11/3.73/1.22/159 in 155 IP

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 24.10 – The good news is that Bello improved one of his biggest weaknesses, bringing his BB% down 3.4 percentage points to a well above average 6.7%, but the bad news is that basically everything else took a half step back. The velocity dropped 1.3 MPH to 95 MPH, the barrel% rose 1.6 percentage points to 7%, and the whiff% dropped 1.6 percentage points to 24.4%. It resulted in a good, but unexciting fantasy season with a 4.24 ERA and 19.8% K% in 157 IP. The floor is high with his ability to keep the ball on the ground (56.2% GB%), the stuff is still big, and the changeup is still plus with a .219 xwOBA and 38.7% whiff%, but the upside is lacking with the mediocre K rates. He was major buy for me last off-season, and everything I liked him about then, I still like about him now (plus the improved control), so he’s an easy hold for me this off-season. 2024 Projection: 11/3.94/1.28/150 in 165 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 35.0 – Sale was a bit rusty coming off a completely lost and chaotic 2022 season with a 8.22 ERA in his first 23 IP, but he performed like a true ace after that with a 3.16 ERA and 30.2%/6.0% K%/BB% in 79.2 IP. He can clearly still be an impact fantasy starter, but there are enough indications that what he did in those final 79.2 IP shouldn’t be expected over a full season. He missed over 2 months during that stretch with shoulder inflammation, and while he performed well afterwards, the velocity was spotty and shoulder injuries are scary. He hasn’t thrown a legitimate starter’s workload since 2019 (147.1 IP). And the stuff isn’t quite as good as his prime with his heavily used 4-seamer hitting a career worst .320 xwOBA and 23.4% whiff%. All of those negatives seem to already be factored into his price though with a NFBC ADP of 179, and his advanced age is sure to keep his price down in dynasty too, so he still makes for a very reasonable buy target for a win now team. 2024 Projection: 10/3.57/1.14/170 in 140 IP

Hitters

Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 27.7 – Ceddanne Rafaela is pretty clearly Boston’s starting CF of the future, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to playing time for Duran both in the short term and long term. Rafaela hasn’t established himself yet, Alex Verdugo is in his final year of team control with trade rumors already swirling around him, Masataka Yoshida looks like he’ll be doing a lot of DH’ing, and the unproven Wilyer Abreu (who I like) is penciled into one of the OF spots. That leaves plenty of avenues for playing time for Duran even if Boston brings in a free agent or two, and he has the type of fantasy profile to go after. His hit tool took a big step forward in 2023 with a 24.9% K% (28.3% in 2022), and it was even better in the 2nd half with a 17.6% K% in his final 142 PA. The contact improvements allowed his double plus speed (29.5 ft/sec sprint with 24 steals in 102 games) and at least above average raw power (89.9 MPH EV with 8 homers and a .295 BA) to shine. He was definitely on the lucky side with a .266 xBA, but luck is the residue of design, and when you hit the ball hard with his kind of speed, good things happen. His season ended in late August with a toe injury that required surgery, but he should be good to go for 2024, and I would use any job/injury uncertainty to your advantage this off-season. 2024 Projection: 78/16/69/.264/.329/.428/29

Bullpen

Kenley Jansen BOS, Closer, 36.6 – Jensen is certainly passed his prime with career worsts in K% (27.7%), EV against (89.9 MPH), xFIP (4.61), and xERA (3.16), but he’s far from washed up. His velocity jumped two ticks to near career highs with a 94.3 MPH cutter, and the slider is still plus with a 37.5% whiff%. The days of him putting up a 1.32 ERA with a 42.2%/2.7% K%/BB% are over, but a low 3’s ERA with a 30%/9%% K%/BB% is still well within reach. 2024 Projection: 4/3.39/1.15/79/34 saves in 62 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Roman Anthony BOS, OF, 19.11 – I ended Anthony’s 2023 Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “There is a lot of refinement needed, but this is a high upside bat who could explode up rankings if everything comes together.” … well, everything came together and Anthony exploded up rankings, slashing .272/.403/.466 with 14 homers, 16 steals, and a 24.2%/17.5% K%/BB% in 106 games at mostly Single-A (109 wRC+) and High-A (164 wRC+). It was a little concerning that the K% jumped to 30.6% at High-A, but then he closed out the season at Double-A and had a 185 wRC+ with a 13.6%/18.2% K%/BB% in 10 games. And he did all this starting the season as an 18 year old. He’s an elite athlete at 6’2”, 200 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, powerful lefty swing, and a mature plate approach. He’s not a completely finished product yet as he’s not great at lifting the ball with an under 25% Flyball%, and he wasn’t a great base stealer with 16 steals in 23 attempts, but he hits the ball so hard he can survive without a huge launch, and he has time to refine his base stealing skills as well, so neither are major concerns. He’s on a short list to be the #1 overall prospect in baseball by this time next year. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.273/.358/.472/16

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 21.4 – Mayer feels like he’s getting a bit of the treatment Noelvi Marte got last year. He was on a beeline for elite prospect status until there was an abrupt, general cooling on him throughout the industry, but like with Marte, I’m not sure it’s warranted. That sweet and vicious lefty swing obliterated the age appropriate High-A, slashing .290/.366/.524 with 7 homers, 5 steals, and a 22.%/10.4% K%/BB% in 35 games. He scuffled when he got to Double-A with a 63 wRC+, but there are multiple reasons to not get scared off by that. He was very young for the level, he was battling though a shoulder injury that eventually ended his season, and a .220 BABIP was really the biggest issue as 6 homers with a 25.8% K% in 43 games isn’t bad at all. He’s not that fast, but he’s a good enough base stealer to nab a handful of bags, and the strikeout rates have been higher than optimal, but the has the type of swing that can hit for both average and power even with a slightly higher strikeout rate. There are also only improvements coming from here. He’s right on track to become one of the better complete hitters in the game, especially hitting in Fenway. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 91/27/93/.272/.351/.484/9

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 23.6 – Rafaela’s MLB debut was rough with a 74 wRC+, .238 xwOBA and 85.5 MPH EV in 89 PA, which fanned the flames of concern that he is too small (5’8″) to excel at the highest levels, but I’m using it as a buying opportunity. His floor is very high with at least plus CF defense and plus speed (39 steals and a 28.7 ft/sec sprint). He’s always had a good feel to hit (21.9% K% at Triple-A), he hit the ball hard in the upper minors with a 89.1 MPH EV, and he’s never had any groundball issues. He has a poor plate approach with a low BB% (5.5%) and high chase rates, but I don’t think that will hold him back while he’s in his physical prime. Cedric Mullins with a tick worse plate approach is the comp. 2024 Projection: 47/10/38/.245/.302/.401/15 Prime Projection:  87/18/68/.261/.318/.422/31

4) Kyle Teel BOS, C, 22.1 – Selected 14th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Teel is a better real life prospect than fantasy prospect like most prospect catchers. He has a hit over power profile, slashing .407/.475/.655 with 13 homers, 5 steals, and a 36/32 K/BB in 65 ACC games. He backed up that profile in pro ball, slashing .363/.483/.495 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 19.3%/18.4% K%/BB% in 26 games split between 3 levels (rookie, High-A, Double-A). He’s a good athlete, so he could nab a few bases which is nice for a catcher, and he immediately becomes Boston’s best catcher prospect, so he could move relatively fast through the system. Fenway is a great hitter’s park too which should help his profile play up. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/71/.281/.352/.433/8

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 21.3 – Blaze is one of those prospects where every time I fly him up rankings in early rankings drafts, I get cold feet after looking them over a few times because he isn’t a good defensive player, he hits lefties much better than righties, and he’s yet to truly show that prodigious power he was known for as an amateur. But then I move him too far down the rankings, and get FOMO when I think about a 20 year old with big raw power, great contact rates, and great production. He slashed .324/.385/.533 with 12 homers and a 14.6%/8.7% K%/BB% in 73 games at High-A. It was good for a 145 wRC+. He then went to Double-A and hit 6 homers with a 13.8% K% in 49 games. He can look a bit stiff at the plate, but he’s talked about losing weight and working on his body this off-season, which will only help him both offensively and defensively at a very strong 6’2”, 220 pounds. As a pure bat, there is a lot to love, and if he can improve defensively this off-season, it would make prospect rankers feel a lot more comfortable about him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/84/.269/.332/.465/3

6) Wilyer Abreu BOS, OF, 24.10 – I had a lot of in-season Target article hits this year, ringing the five alarm bell on a bunch of guys right at the first sign of a sprouting breakout and before they were even close to getting the respect they deserved (Nolan Jones and Zack Gelof, among others, were my best calls), but my favorite call was probably the one I made on Wilyer Abreu. Here is what I wrote about Abreu on August 3rd, “ This one is probably more for my deep leaguers out there, but there is something I really love about Abreu that I just can’t shake. And that something is probably his sweet, sweet lefty swing. It’s resulted in 14 homers with a 89.6 MPH EV in 71 games at Triple-A. It also comes with a solid 22.3%/16% K%/BB% and a cannon for an arm in rightfield. I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but I think he has a chance to be a rock solid MLB player.” … From that point forward, Abreu went absolutely bonkos, hitting 8 homers in just 15 games at Triple-A, and then earning a call up to the majors where he put up a ridiculous 135 wRC+ in 85 PA. It’s almost like I had a crystal ball on that one. He continued to hit the ball hard in the majors with a 91.3 MPH EV, he likes to run with 3 steals (8 steals at AAA), and the plate approach was solid with a 27.1%/10.6% K%/BB%. I still think he’s more of an impact player for medium to deeper leagues rather than shallow leagues, but he more than proved he can be a good big leaguer in the long run. 2024 Projection: 47/14/54/.242/.319/.423/6 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.257/.338/.453/9

7) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 20.1 – Bleis was the anti-Junior Caminero in 2023. Everyone wants to know which prospects can blow up from outside Top 50’s into elite prospect range, and Bleis and Caminero were both popular picks to do that this year. Caminero obviously fulfilled that elite prospect destiny, while Bleis completely imploded in on himself. He struggled hard at Single-A with 1 homer, 11 steals, a 26.8%/7.0% K%/BB%, and 71 wRC+ in 31 games, and then his season ended on May 30th with a shoulder injury that required surgery. The superstar traits are still there with a lightning quick swing, projectable power, and plus speed, but he didn’t seem all that close to putting it together in 2023, and the shoulder injury adds further risk. He’s not an overtly imposing presence at a skinny 6 feet, so he needs to tack on more muscle to reach his power potential, and the plate approach is below average. He can still obviously reach his elite prospect potential, but every year he doesn’t do it, the odds of it happening get a little lower. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection:  75/22/77/.255/.322/.438/24

8) Yordanny Monegro BOS, RHP, 21.5 – Monegro is a projectable 6’4”, 180 pounds with nasty stuff and a starter’s pitch mix. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with good movement, to go along with 2 plus breaking balls that he has full confidence in and will throw in any count, both in and out of the zone. He also mixes in a decent a changeup. He was too much for the lower minors with a 2.06 ERA and 34.6%/9.7% K%/BB% in 65.2 IP at rookie ball, Single-A, and High-A. He doesn’t have pinpoint control, but he’s not majorly wild either. Boston has a bunch of arms with similar value to Monegro, but I like his combination of upside and likelihood of sticking as a starter the most. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.31/160 in 155 IP

9) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 22.0 – A 24.1% K% and .268 BA at Double-A isn’t exactly super encouraging for a player who you are mostly buying for the hit tool. There also isn’t a clear path to playing time with Story under contract through 2027, Marcelo Mayer very likely ahead of him on the depth chart, and many others with similar skillsets to Yorke in the organization as well. And to top it all off, he isn’t a particularly good defensive player. But Yorke showed a good enough all around collection of skills/tools to stick with him. He hit 13 homers with 18 steals, a 10.1% BB% and 116 wRC+ in 110 games as a barely 21 year old in the upper minors. The Sox took him 17th overall in 2020, and when a team invests so much into a player, they usually want to give him every opportunity to succeed. His perceived name value is probably greater than his actual value, but he can still be a solid all around contributor at peak. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/71/.267/.332/.426/14

10) Wikelman Gonzalez BOS, RHP, 22.0 – There is no doubt that Gonzalez has fire stuff with a nightmare mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets a ton of whiffs to go along with a plus breaking ball and a solid changeup. It led to a 3.96 ERA with a 35.2% K% in 111.1 IP at High-A and Double-A. The problem is that his control is in the major danger zone with a 14.7% BB%. He can survive with below average control, but he needs to improve to even reach below average, so his most likely role will be out of the bullpen. It’s closer type stuff though. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 4/3.45/1.22/81/25 saves in 65 IP

Just Missed

11) Chase Meidroth BOS, 3B/2B, 22.8

12) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS/2B, 21.9

13) Yoelin Cespedes BOS, SS, 18.7

14) Nazzan Zanetello BOS, SS, 18.10

15) Luis Perales BOS, RHP, 21.0

16) Angel Bastardo BOS, RHP, 21.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Miguel Bleis blurb, every dynasty owner wants that shooting star prospect who “came out of nowhere,” but I would be careful about building your system with 100% of these players. Bleis is the dark side of that strategy, and before you know it, you could have an entire farm system full of nearly worthless prospects who showed glimpses in the DSL or rookie ball a few years ago, while your competition rosters and graduates the Matt McLain’s and Spencer Steer’s of the world. Of course you want a nice percentage of pure young upside, but make you sure you are dipping into other buckets of prospects as well to diversify your risk. And you don’t have to always forgo upside to do it with the Blake Dunn’s of the world available for reasonable prices (I’m not intentionally only naming Cincinnati players, hah).

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Baltimore Orioles (free)–Chicago Cubs (free)–Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–San Francisco Giants–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 200 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-DEEP 2024 DYNASTY POSITIONAL RANKS: TOP 76 C//TOP 98 1B
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100+ COMING SOON)
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

I’m pumped to be kicking off my off-season 2023 Dynasty Baseball content with Dynasty Team Reports. Just like during the season, I’ll be releasing a free post on most Monday’s throughout the off-season. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS
-2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PLAYER SUPERLATIVES/AWARDS
-UPCOMING CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Starting Pitchers

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Bello is one of my top pitching targets for 2023. He checks a whole hell of a lot of boxes. He throws gas (96.3 MPH sinker), his changeup is a filthy out pitch (44.2% whiff% and .214 xSLG against), he keeps the ball on the ground (5.3 degree launch), and he induces weak contact (5.4% barrel%). His control isn’t great, but it isn’t really a major area of concern. Improving his slider would take him to another level, but his slider isn’t all that bad as is with an above average .288 xwOBA against. His 4.71 ERA (3.80 xERA) in 57.1 IP, and his relative lack of hype as a prospect is going to have him going for an extremely reasonable price this off-season. I’m all in on Bello. I would be all over him no matter where your team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 10/3.79/1.27/180 in 172 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.43/1.18/214 in 190 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 34.0 – This video of Chris Sale going full meltdown mode and destroying the Triple-A locker room while on a rehab assignment is the perfect representation of his 2022 season. He pitched only 5.2 innings all year as he battled a stress fracture in his ribs early on, and then a broken pinky almost immediately after returning from the rib injury, and then finally a broken wrist from a bike accident finished off his season. None of the injuries seem to be long term concerns, and his fastball did average 94.9 MPH in those 5.2 innings, which is actually nice to see even if it is a very small sample. He has the reputation as a strikeout machine, but he’s also put up near elite walk rates since 2012 which gives him a safe floor even if the strikeouts take a step back. If you’re a competing team who doesn’t have the assets to go after an established ace this off-season, Sale is a good “Plan B” option. 2023 Projection: 10/3.59/1.17/181 in 150 IP

Hitters

Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts started his career as a boring fantasy player, and now it looks like the back 9 of his career will end up pretty similar. He’s a line drive hitter with above average contact rates and average exit velocities. He’ll chip in with some steals, but he’s never been a huge base stealer, and I don’t think the new rules (bigger bases and max of 2 pick off attempts) are going to favor an aging player like Bogaerts who likes to pick his spots. In fact, it might actually hurt his value because I think younger, more reckless base runners will ultimately get the biggest bump. His name value is still very strong, likely bumping up his value much higher than players who can put up similar numbers and go much later. He can also opt out of his contract this off-season, and if he leaves Boston’s hitter haven, it will very likely hurt his value. He’s a sell for me. 2023 Projection: 88/20/76/.290/.364/.469/13

Trevor Story BOS, 2B, 30.5 – Just when we started to relax and let our hair down when it came to Colorado hitters leaving Coors, Story comes along and smacks us right back to reality. His K% spiked 7.4 percentage points to 30.8% and it led to a career worst .238 BA (.221 xBA). We knew the batting average was coming down, but this was close to a worst case scenario on how far down. The power/speed combo was still good with 16 homers and 13 steals in 94 games battling through a few injuries, so he’s still an exciting fantasy player, but you now have to factor in that it could come with a batting average that tanks you in that category. 2023 Projection: 77/26/89/.241/.316/.480/19

Bullpen

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – Whitlock once again heads into the off-season in role purgatory. He’ll be brought to camp prepared to be a starter, but he can easily end up back in the bullpen. Along with role uncertainty, he also underwent arthroscopic hip surgery in late September, and while he’s expected to be ready go for the start of the season, it adds another layer of unknowns. What isn’t unknown, is that Whitlock is a damn good pitcher as he backed up the 2021 breakout with another very good year in 2022. He put up a 3.17 xERA (3.45 ERA) with a 29.4% whiff% and 4.8% BB%. In leagues with a holds category, there could be a buying opportunity on Whitlock this off-season, but in a 5×5 saves league, there are too many unknowns for me to really target him. 2023 Projection: 6/3.35/1.11/115/15 saves in 105 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.0 – Rafaela is a small (5’8”), electric player who seems to be taking a page out of another small electric player’s playbook, Mookie Betts. Both of their swings start upright before bending into hitting position and exploding on the baseball. Boston obviously has a plan on developing these smaller ballplayers. Rafaela isn’t as good as Betts, but he had an eye opening season, slashing .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers, 28 steals, and a 113/26 K/BB split between High-A (156 wRC+ in 45 games) and Double-A (119 wRC+ in 71 games). He’s a plus defensive centerfielder which should help keep him on the field and mitigates the risk of his low walk rate (5% BB%). Take a star away in OBP leagues, but he could be a 5×5 BA beast in the mold of Cedric Mullins. 2023 Projection: 7/1/4/.245/.293/.390/2 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.261/.314/.423/22

4) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 19.1 – Bleis is a scout’s dream. He’s a long and lean 6’3”, 170 pounds with a quick and athletic swing. The high priced international signing played well in 2021 in the DSL, but he really exploded this year at stateside rookie ball, slashing .301/.353/.543 with 5 homers, 18 steals, and a 26.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 40 games. He’s not a finished product as evidenced by his plate approach numbers, but if you’re looking for the type who could be an elite prospect very quickly into 2023, Bleis is your guy. ETA: 2025/26 Prime Projection: 75/22/80/.252/.317/465/14

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 20.4 – Blaze clearly came into 2022 with a plan to not just be an all or nothing slugger, and he accomplished that plan with a 16.1%/8.9% K%/BB% in 95 games at Single-A. It came with a low FB% and only 8 homers, but he’s been known for his prodigious power for years now so it’s more important for his development to establish his hit tool. He then closed out the season at High-A where he put up a 128 wRC+ with 4 homers in 25 games. The bat is legit. The issue is on the other side of the ball as Blaze played a lot of 1B this year. He’s not a lock to move off 3B, but it’s clearly a possibility, and that puts all of the pressure on his bat to hit it’s ceiling. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 77/27/86/.260/.324/.486/3

6) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke had a worst case scenario 2022. He hit .231 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 25.2% K% in 80 games at High-A. He battled through injuries which definitely contributed to how bad it was, but the power/speed combo isn’t very big, which puts a lot of pressure on his hit tool. He struck out 22.9% of the time at High-A last year too. He’s off to a hot start in the AFL (.368 BA with a 3/5 K/BB in 5 games), and I definitely think he will have a much better 2023, but he lacks high end upside which prevents me from going any higher on him than this. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/70/.276/.338/.435/10

7) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Mata returned from Tommy John surgery in June and quickly established the nasty stuff is fully back with him regularly sitting in the upper 90’s with his 4-seamer. He combines that with a diverse pitch mix that features a potentially plus slider, a nasty 2 seamer, a curve, and a change. He touched every level of the minors this year other than rookie ball and racked up K’s at every level with 105 strikeouts in 83 IP which led to a 2.49 ERA. The problem is that he has major control issues, putting up a 14.7% BB% in 23.1 IP at Triple-A. It’s a high risk, high reward profile with major bullpen risk, but with Boston’s unsettled bullpen, he could end up a dominant closer in short order. 2023 Projection: 3/4.10/1.34/71/4 saves in 65 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.28/1.18/85/28 saves in 70 IP

8) Emmanuel Valdez BOS, 2B/3B, 24.3 – Valdez is not a big man at 5’9”, 191 pounds, but he puts up big man power numbers with 26 homers in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2021, which he followed up with 28 homers in 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s not a big base stealer, his hit tool is solid but not standout, and he’s not great on defense, so a lot is riding on that power from a small frame. 2023 Projection: 54/13/51/.243/.319/.427/4 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.335/.452/7

9) Matthew Lugo BOS, 3B/SS, 21.11 – Lugo’s power exploded in 2022, going from 4 homers in 105 games at Single-A in 2021 to 18 homers in 114 games at High-A in 2022. He did so without his hit tool or speed taking a step back, maintaining a strong .288 BA and 19.5% K% along with 20 steals. He might not have a standout tool, but he’s shaping up to be a solid across the board contributor. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.330/.445/11

10) Brandon Walter BOS, LHP, 26.7 – Walter was shutdown in early June with a neck strain. If not for the injury, he very likely would have ended up higher on the list. He obliterated Double-A with a 2.88 ERA and 34.7%/1.5% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP. He got roughed up a bit in his 2 start Triple-A cup of coffee with a 8.22 ERA and 7/4 K/BB in 7.2 IP before going down with the injury, so he was never given the opportunity to right the ship there. He’s old for a prospect, but you can’t fake good stuff, and Walter’s stuff is on point. He uses a funky, herky jerky lefty delivery to fire a low to mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average changeup. Toss in plus control and it adds up to a relatively safe profile with some upside evidenced by the high K rate. #4 starter seems like a fair, relatively good outcome scenario. 2023 Projection: 3/4.36/1.29/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.24/166 in 160 IP

Just Missed

11) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 24.5 – The lefty Kavadas wrecked the lower level of the minors with 24 homers in 96 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his swing and miss issues caught up with him when he got to Double-A, putting up a 40% K% with only 2 homers in 24 games. For an older player, that isn’t a great sign. He’s also a 1B only guy, which causes another road block to playing time. He’s a walk machine and the power is legit, so I could see him chiseling out some kind of platoon role on the MLB level a la Dan Vogelbach. 2023 Projection: 9/3/12/.219/.305/.410/0  Prime Projection: 48/18/57/.232/.328/.430/1

12) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B/1B, 22.10 – The lefty Binelas wants to hit the ball hard. Check out this excellent interview by David Laurila over on Fangraphs about how much emphasis he puts on exit velocity. It certainly shows as Binelas jacked 25 homers in 113 games split between High-A and Double-A. Like Kavadas, the problem is that his hit tool fell apart when he got to Double-A with a .166 BA and 32.4% K% in 55 games, and he also doesn’t have much defensive value. Part time power bat might be the most likely outcome. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/51/.238/.323/.430/2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Restricting trades after the season ends for any period of time doesn’t make sense to me. A large portion of the fun of playing in a dynasty league is that it is a year round thing. I love taking stock of my team directly after the season ends, thinking about my keepers and what my lineup will look like next year, seeing the holes I need to fill and the areas I’m weak in. If your team wasn’t in competition, you might not have had that much to do since the trade deadline passed in August, and you’re ripping and raring to go when the trade ban is lifted. Waiting months before I can start wheeling and dealing just seems unnecessary. Please lift that trade embargo, Mr. Commissioner. No taxation without representation. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Ask not what your country can do … my bad, got carried away there 🙂

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS
-2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PLAYER SUPERLATIVES/AWARDS
-UPCOMING CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/20/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (6/20/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Juan Soto WASH, OF, 23.9 – Cranked his 14th homer on a 1 for 5 day but is still “struggling” with only an .807 OPS. This is deja vu from last year where he had a .851 OPS in the first half before going off in the 2nd half. The underlying numbers are elite with a .413 xwOBA, so the bonkos 2nd half is inevitable this year too. If this even opens up the tiniest sliver of a buying opportunity, I would be all over that, but clearly any dynasty owner worth their salt won’t price him any lower. Let me know if anyone sells low on Soto because I will personally show up at their house and collect all of their salt. They don’t deserve it.

Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 25.8 – 3 for 5 with a double and a homer. Over his last 21 games he’s slashing .321/.369/.718 with 8 homers, 1 steal, and an 18/5 K/BB. I kept the faith on Torres this off-season, finishing his blurb in the Top 1,000 by writing, “Gleyber is starting to hit those man muscle years and the power should only tick up from here. I love him as a trade target this off-season.” I ranked him 78th overall on the Updated Top 445 June Dynasty Baseball Rankings that hit my Patreon last week. 2018-19 Gleyber is back.

Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.2 – Power is the final step to go full breakout, and it seems to be happening as Winn destroyed his 4th homer in 23 games at Double-A all the way to the parking lot. He already cracked my Top 50 in the Top 350 June Prospects Rankings, and the arrow continues to point up.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.3 – One of my favorite prospects in the minors, Ramos obliterated his 11th homer of the season so hard that it drew audible oooohhs and aaahhs from the crowd. He’s been red hot with 7 homers, a 10/8 K/BB and a .961 OPS in his last 19 games at High-A.

Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 21.6 – Priester returned from an oblique injury a couple weeks ago and made his first start at Double-A yesterday, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER and a 3/0 K/BB. He throws a diverse pitch mix and the fastball has been sitting in the mid 90’s. The eye test has always looked better than the numbers with Priester, and I’ve decided to split the difference between the two when valuing him.

Gavin Williams CLE, RHP, 22.10 – Williams made his 2nd start at Double-A and went 3 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/2 K/BB. The fastball is way too advanced for minor league hitters, and the breaking balls were so refined in this one that he pitched the entire game with his pinky up.

Jack Suwinski PIT, OF, 23.10 – Jack jacked 3 homers yesterday and Jack’s now jacked 11 homers on the year. He has a .339 wOBA with a .339 xwOBA. This guy jacks.

Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 27.0 – 3 for 4 with a double. O’Neill returned from the IL a new man, slashing .354/.385/.521 with 2 homers, 3 steals, and a 12/3 K/BB in 12 games. Unfortunately he left the game with hamstring tightness, so we are back in wait and see mode.

Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 29.6 – 7 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 10/1 K/BB vs STL. He dominated with the fastball, throwing it 56% of the time with a 36% whiff% and 84.3 MPH EV against. Fantasy managers have been riding the Nick Pivetta rollercoaster for years now, so it’s hard to fully buy in, and the 3.31 ERA is much better than the 4.02 xERA. He’s solid, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep this up.

Juan Yepez STL, 1B/3B/OF, 24.4 – Drilled a pinch hit 114.4 MPH homer. That basically describes Yepez’ value all right there. He can rake, but playing time is an issue as he’s a bad defensive player with a negative 6 defensive value. It’s such a pain trying to figure out the correct ranking of a guy like Yepez, because if he gets the playing time his ranking will look silly low, and if he doesn’t his ranking will look silly high. There is no in between.

Jerar Encarnacion MIA, OF, 24.8 – Encarnacion made his MLB debut and it didn’t take long for him to show off the skills, crushing his first homer with a K on a 1 for 4 day. He hit the ball hard all day and starts his MLB career with a 99.6 MPH EV. The BA is going to be an issue with a 30.2% K% at Triple-A, but at 6’4”, 220 pounds, he’s going to mash.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.2 – Checking in at #112 on the Updated Top 445 Dynasty Rankings, Harris launched his 3rd homer off Kyle Hendricks on a 105.4 MPH shot. Considering he’s 21 years old jumping straight from Double-A, he’s had a damn exciting MLB debut, slashing .321/.346/.538 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 18/3 K/BB in 21 games.

Buddy Kennedy ARI, 3B, 23.10 – Kennedy made his MLB debut last week and he got on the board with his first homer yesterday on a 394 foot bomb. He’s looked mature at the plate so far in 3 games with a 18.2%/9.1% K%/BB% and 1.164 OPS. I ranked Kennedy 693rd overall on my off-season Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings and wrote, “When you watch Kennedy he doesn’t exactly scream upside, but he has baseball bloodlines and it definitely shows because he looks mature beyond his years at the plate. He vaguely reminded me of Jhonny Peralta a little.” He’s sneaky good.

Curtis Mead TBR, 3B, 21.7 – 2 for 4 with 2 homers at Double-A. Mead’s plus hit tool has transferred to the upper minors with a 18.2%/10% K%/BB% and .305 BA in 50 games, and now the power is coming too with 6 homers in his last 15 games. He has an unorthodox, Statue of Liberty like batting stance that you can’t help but love. He has a chance to be really damn good.

Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 19.5 – It was only a matter of time before the power started to come, and it came hard yesterday with 2 homers. He has all fields power, with one to the pull side and one going the opposite way. His contact rates have been excellent all year with a 17.3% K% in 57 games at Single-A. He’s laying the foundation to be one of the top power hitting prospects in the game in a year or so.

Andrew Heaney LAD, LHP, 30.10 – Heaney returned from a shoulder injury and he picked the breakout up right where he left off, going 5 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. The fastball averaged 92.1 MPH, which is up 0.6 MPH from his season average, and he put up a 31% whiff% overall. He now has a 0.59 ERA with a 38.1% whiff% in 15.1 IP on the season. Heaney is yet another player I hit on in my early February Target Series on Patreon, writing, “I liked Heaney a lot going into last year because of above average strikeout and walk rates, but it obviously didn’t materialize. This is a bet on LA’s developmental prowess. If he’s good enough for the Dodgers rotation, he’s good enough for my fantasy squad.” We can’t develop the players as Dynasty owners, so taking the organization into account is a must for us.

Oscar Gonzalez CLE, OF, 24.7 – Gonzalez powered up with the lone run off Heaney, cracking a 395 foot homer off him for his 1st of the year in 22 games. A 1.8 degree launch is why it took this long to get on the board, but a 91.2 MPH EV shows there is more raw power in the tank if he can make adjustments.

Robert Gasser SDP, LHP, 23.2 – 7 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at High-A. The 4.10 ERA in 63.2 IP isn’t great, but the 31%/7.8% K%/BB% looks much better. The stuff isn’t huge, making him more of a “crafty lefty” with a back end starter profile.

Gordon Graceffo STL, RHP, 22.3 – 7 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 6/0 K/BB at Double-A. The breakout has slowed a little bit a Double-A despite the 2.73 ERA in 29.2 IP. His K% is all the way down to 19.1%. His control has still been otherworldly though with a 1.7% BB%. Here he is painting the black with a 99 MPH fastball.

Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 21.3 – 4 for 7 with 2 doubles. Pereira has been heating up at High-A, slashing .294/.347/.533 with 5 homers, 4 steals, and a 22/8 K/BB in his last 22 games. He had only 1 homer before that, so it’s nice to see him finding his power stroke again after hitting 20 homers in 49 games last year.

Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 23.3 – Westburg has been excelling since getting the call to Triple-A, going 2 for 3 with a double and steal yesterday, and is now slashing .405/.444/.810 with 3 homers, 2 steals, and a 22.2%/6.7% K%/BB% in 10 games. He’s no Gunnar Henderson, but he can be a solid across the board contributor as a key member of Baltimore’s next winning core.

Jacob Amaya LAD, SS, 23.10 – Amaya was starting to cool off at Double-A, but he must have been getting bored, because he’s exploded after the call to Triple-A. He went 2 for 3 with 2 walks yesterday and now has 2 homers with a 11.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 6 games. He swings a wickedly dangerous bat, and he continues to grow on me. He hasn’t cracked my Top 100 yet, but that could end up being a mistake.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.8 – The savoir of Pittsburgh has finally ascended with Cruz getting the call for tonight’s game vs. Chicago. I hope NL Central pitchers enjoyed their Father’s Day yesterday, because their new daddy has arrived.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 350 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-UPDATED JUNE 2022 TOP 445 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 16 2023 FYPD RANKINGS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com 
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Boston Red Sox 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 200 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 250 is dropping tomorrow)
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 C/Top 78 1B/Top 87 2B/Top 88 3B/Top 122 SS up now)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

*A Top 250 Sneak Peek of the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings coming tomorrow

Starting Pitchers

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 33.0 – Sale returned in mid August from Tommy John surgery and looked about, I would say, like 85% of himself. He had a pitching line of 3.16/1.34/52/12 in 42.2 IP. He had a 4 year low 28.4% K% and a 10 year worst 6.6% BB%. His changeup was particularly ineffective with a .667 slugging against and a 23.8% whiff% (33% whiff% in 2019). His fastball sat 93.6 MPH, which is on the low side, but not out of character for his career, and it averaged 95.1 MPH against Houston in his 5.1 inning playoff start against them. If you want to look at it glass a half full, he should come back fully healthy after a normal off-season. Glass half empty take is that this could be his new, still very good skill level as he enters his mid 30’s. 2022 Projection: 11/3.42/1.15/197 in 160 IP

Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 25.9 – Houck thrived in relatively short outings, putting up a 3.52 ERA with a 30.5%/7.4% K%/BB% in 69 IP. He averaged 3.8 IP per outing and never went more than 5.1 IP.  His fastball exploded to 94.5 MPH and his slider was truly elite with a .194 xwOBA. He might not rack up innings, but he’s proven his fastball/slider combo can do real damage in the majors. He’s a great target who is still not getting enough hype. He ranked #162 on my Top 200 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2022 Projection: 10/3.75/1.25/166 in 145 IP

Nick Pivetta BOS, RHP, 29.2 – Everybody’s favorite sleeper in 2019 put himself back on the map in 2021 with a pitching line of 4.53/1.30/175/65 in 155 IP. He had a 3.84 xERA, but he’s underperformed his xStats basically every year of his career because of how homer prone he is, so it’s hard to buy into that being his “true” talent level. He had an above average 26.5% K%, but his whiff% was an average 24.6% and none of his pitches standout as elite K pitches with his slider and curve putting up a 26.4% and 31.1% whiff%, respectively. He’s also in a very challenging pitching environment at Fenway in the AL East. He did enough to 2021 to be an interesting back end rotation option, but I’m still not comfortable going out of my way to target him. 2022 Projection: 10/4.27/1.32/169 in 160 IP

Hitters

Bobby Dalbec BOS, 1B, 26.9 – After struggling pre break with a .673 OPS and 36.8% K% in 72 games, Dalbec went off in the 2nd half, slashing .269/.344/.611 with 15 homers and a 31.3% K% in 61 games. It all comes down to plate approach with him (34.4%/6.2% K%/BB%), because he smashes the ball with a 92.4 MPH EV. I would be higher on him if Triston Casas wasn’t breathing down his neck. He has about as short of a leash as you can get. 2022 Projection: 66/28/82/.240/.309/.482/2

Enrique Hernandez BOS, 2B/OF, 30.7 – Hernandez put up the best xwOBA of his career with a .346 mark, and he did it on the back of a career high 90.8 MPH EV and 8.4% Barrel%. He brought his BB% back up to 10.4% after it tanked in 2020 to 4.1%. He then nuclear in the playoffs with 5 homers and a 230 wRC+ in 11 games. He’s not going to be a league winner, but he’s established himself as a rock solid option and will likely be underpriced going into 2022. 2022 Projection: 78/23/74/.248/.330/.451/2

Bullpen

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 25.10 – Whitlock’s role for 2022 is still up in the air as he could find his way into the rotation. He’s a groundball pitcher (7.5 degree launch angle) with above average strikeout rates (27.2% K%) and plus control (5.7% BB%). That is a hell of a combination that led to a 1.96 ERA and 81/17 K/BB in 73.1 IP. He also has plus stuff with a 95.8 MPH sinker (96.3 MPH 4-seamer) and two plus secondaries in his changeup (.226 xwOBA) and slider (.229 xwOBA). He pitched mostly short outings (1-2 IP), so those numbers will likely drop back as a starter, but he’s a great target regardless of what role he ends up in. 2022 Projection: 8/3.63/1.23/124 in 120 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 22.2 – Casas is 6’4”, 252 pounds with double plus raw power and a mature approach at the plate. He put up a 19.1%/15.4% in 86 games at mostly Double-A (9 games at Triple-A). He has a textbook lefty swing with very little movement, and he rarely sells out to get to his power. His homer totals don’t jump out at you with only 14 homers, but he doesn’t have any major groundball issues with a 42.8% GB% (34.6% GB% at Triple-A), so even if he doesn’t make adjustments to unlock more power, he will still hit plenty of homers while maintaining a high BA. He’s in the mold of a Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt if he hits his ceiling. 2022 Projection: 36/10/41/.253/.334/.469/2 Prime Projection: 96/32/102/.276/.365/.515/4

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 19.4 – Selected 4th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Mayer stays loose and easy in his stance before unleashing a vicious lefty swing that has monster offensive potential written all over it. He did show some swing and miss in his pro debut with a 25.2% K% in 26 games, but he has a mature plate approach (14% BB%) and a swing that is geared for both power and average. He put up a 121 wRC+. Lack of speed is the only issue for fantasy, and it is the reason he is far from a lock for the top pick in first year player drafts. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 89/25/88/.274/.346/.478/7

3) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 20.0 – Boston drafting Nick Yorke 17th overall in 2020 drew some head scratches, but they obviously knew what they were doing because Yorke went off in his pro debut. He slashed .325/.412/.516 with 14 homers, 13 steals (in 22 attempts), and a 15.6%/11.8% K%/BB% in 97 games at mostly Single-A. His K% jumped up to 22.9% at High-A, but he actually put up a better wRC+ at the level (158 wRC+) than he did in Single-A (146 wRC+). He has a double plus hit tool with a mature plate approach and no major groundball issues, so he should hit for solid power on quality of contact alone. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/20/75/.288/.366/.463/9

4) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 25.7 – Duran’s power breakout in 2020 at the alt side carried over into real games in 2021 with 16 homers and a 37.5% GB% in 60 games at Triple-A, but everything crumbled when he got to the majors. He put up a .578 OPS with a 35.7%/3.6% K%/BB% and a 49.3% GB% in 112 PA. The good news is that he hit the ball pretty hard with an above average 89.6/93.6 MPH AVG/FB EV and he’s lightening fast with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. Even with the new flyball approach in Triple-A he was able to maintain a strong 23.3%/10.6% K%/BB%, and he’s been a strong contact hitter his entire career, so those numbers should improve his 2nd time through the majors. 2022 Projection: 46/12/41/.243/.301/.418/14 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.258/.319/.433/19

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 19.3 – Jordan has been well known for his impressive power for years now at 6’2”, 220 pounds with a lightening quick righty swing, and he didn’t disappoint in his pro debut with 6 homers in 28 games split between rookie ball and Single-A. He destroyed rookie ball with a 1.075 OPS in 19 games, and while his plate approach got exposed in full season ball (.289 OBP), he still ripped 2 quick homers in 9 games. He’s not great on defense and he needs to refine his plate approach, but his prodigious power gives him a very high floor for fantasy. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/33/89/.252/.318/.508/3

6) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 23.8 – After playing only 12 games in the upper minors (Double-A) prior to this season, Boston sent Downs straight to Triple-A and he simply wasn’t ready. His K% skyrocketed to 32.3% and he put up a 62 wRC+ in 99 games. He was better against inferior competition in the AFL with a .880 OPS, but he still had only a .228 BA with 18 K’s in 16 games. The above average power/speed combo is still there, and this was the first time he has really struggled in his career, so hopefully he can make the necessary adjustments this off-season. 2022 Projection: 17/4/21/.221/.298/.395/3 Prime Projection: 76/23/76/.245/.318/.433/11

7) Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 22.10 – Bello rolled through High-A with a 2.27 ERA and 45/7 K/BB in 31.2 IP before meeting his match in Double-A with a 4.66 ERA, but his strikeout rate was still excellent (31.1%) and he had a 3.33 xFIP, so he pitched better than his surface stats. He has big stuff with a mid 90’s fastball that he can regularly get into the upper 90’s and the potential for 2 plus secondaries in his slider and change. He has solid control, but his command can waver and he doesn’t necessarily consistently hit his spots. If he can improve his control/command, he has legitimate top of the rotation upside, but he’ll more likely top out as a mid rotation guy with high K rates. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.30/175 in 165 IP

8) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Drafted 86th overall in 2021 MLB Draft, Binelas is a built up 6’3”, 225 pounds with plus power and hit tool concerns. He’s done nothing but crush homers in his career, hitting 14 dingers in 59 games in the ACC in 2019, 19 dingers in 50 ACC games in 2021, and then 9 dingers in 29 games in his pro debut at Single-A. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/78/.245/.317/.472/1

9) Gilberto Jimenez BOS, OF, 21.9 – Jimenez had a solid year at Single-A (105 wRC+) led by his good feel to hit with a 21.1% K% and .306 BA, but he wasn’t able to get to any of his power because of a 56.1% GB%. He hit 3 homers in 94 games. He doesn’t walk much (4.7% BB%) and while he has at least plus speed, he hasn’t been very effective on the bases in his career (13 for 21 in 2021). There is still an exciting blend of tools here, and he hasn’t performed poorly by any means, but he needs to find a way to produce more homers and steals if he wants to be an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/13/62/.275/.319/.412/15

10) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 23.7 – Selected 316th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, Kavadas has some of the best pure power in the draft, crushing 22 homers in 47 games in the ACC. He fell to the 11th round because of signing bonus demands and the fact he was a 4 year college player, but none of that changes the very real juice in his lefty bat at 6’1”, 235 pounds. He has strikeout issues and no defensive value, so his bat needs to hit close to his ceiling. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 42/17/49/.237/.323/.458/0

Just Missed

11) Jay Groome BOS, LHP, 23.7

12) Ronaldo Hernandez BOS, C, 24.5 – Hernandez has plus power, drilling 16 homers in 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, but he notched a career worst 19.9% K% (still pretty good) and 3.1% BB% (terrible). He’s also not a very good defensive player. Power is the skill you are buying here. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 38/13/47/.241/.290/.432/0

Strategy

Fenway is the 2nd worst pitcher’s park behind Coors Field (according to Statcast), making their non elite pitchers bad bets for fantasy. It’s what makes me hesitant to rank guys like Pivetta, Bello and Groome higher. It’s a great park for hitters (it juices up doubles in particular), but it is a below average park for homers, possibly capping the upside a bit on someone like Verdguo.

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Posted on by Michael Halpern

Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

The Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings. The full FYPD list will be released concurrently with the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, expected to be out the week after the Super Bowl, sometime between February 8th-14th (2020’s list was out on Feb. 9th). Here is the Top 50 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings:

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Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

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1) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tork launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. The no brainer pick for #1 overall. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

2) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. If power fully develops, he will pass Tork as an elite all category stud. A great consolation prize if you missed out on the #1 pick. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 93/23/82/.284/.358/.455/13

3) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. Combine all that with Coors, and Veen has the highest upside on the list. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.491/10

4) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/2B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He’s a safe proximity play with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.433/15

5) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape Cod League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.448/9

6) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/211 in 186 IP

7) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH exit velocity mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. Armstrong is my favorite target in first year player drafts relative to consensus. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/73/.274/.340/.428/21

8) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/191 in 172 IP

9) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

10) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/66/.266/.328/.419/24

11) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.479/14

12) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 87/22/79/.281/.352/.462/14

13) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the MLB playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/185 in 161 IP

14) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/88/.251/.320/.482/3

15) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. He put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in elite territory for his class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/89/.252/.334/.490/6

16) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. Along with Pete-Crow Armstrong, Jarvis is a player I’m targeting everywhere relative to price. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/188 in 172 IP

17) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 13/3.72/1.23/192 in 184 IP

18) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 80/23/80/.275/.343/.453/10

19) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class, but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.348/.416/15

20) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape), and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.268/.341/.458/5

21) Tomoyuki Sugano FA, RHP, 31.6 – One of the best pitchers in Japan since 2013, Sugano is known for his pinpoint control (1.6 BB/9) rather than gaudy strikeout totals (8.6 K/9). He throws a low 90’s fastball with two different sliders and a split finger as his best secondary.  2021 Projection: 10/4.28/1.27/148 in 162 IP

22) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/188 in 179 IP

23) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Cespedes recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, so while he is mostly still a mystery and I see he is getting ranked lower in other places, I’m willing to take my shot at this point in the draft. You also won’t have to wait 4-5 years to see what you have. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/72/.255/.323/.430/16

24) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/74/.243/.326/.443/12

25) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

26) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

27) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

28) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.332/.444/9

29) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

30) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/17/68/.272/.336/.419/20

31) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/25/82/.261/.330/.467/7

32) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event, which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/18/73/.262/.326/.420/22

33) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 97 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

34) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/13

35) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/155 in 156 IP

36) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

37) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.267/.329/.437/10

38) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/22/76/.268/.335/.446/4

39) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.256/.323/.442/14

40) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

41) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

42) Cole Wilcox TB, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

43) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

44) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.323/.421/7

45) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

46) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 career NCAA stolen bases. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/70/.263/.324/.426/9

47) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. Control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

48) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall, Caissie is young for his high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.238/.321/.462/9

49) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

50) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, consistently putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/25/79/.250/.325/.473/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)