Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//Top 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals
Hitters
Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 23.9 – Morel still has his lack of prospect love baked into his price, because if he got the hype he deserved, you wouldn’t be able to get him at such a good price this off-season. He destroyed Triple-A with a 147 wRC+ in 28 games and then smacked up MLB pitching with a 13.4% Barrel% and 89.6/95.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. Not many 22/23 year old rookies step into the majors and hit the ball that hard. He’s also very fast with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint speed. The skills are there for Morel to be a household name. A legit star. The hit tool is the one thing that could hold him back with a 32.2% K% and 38.3% whiff%, but his 28.6% Chase% is actually league average and he never had strikeout issues to this level in the minors. I’m betting on the K’s coming down, allowing the power/speed combo to shine. He fell off in the 2nd half of the season, but he had a 93.6 MPH EV in September, so I’m not too concerned. He’s a high upside, semi-proven youngster who should be impossible to acquire. Love him as a target. 2023 Projection: 77/23/79/.247/.320/.441/14
Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 28.8 – I projected Suzuki for a .264 BA and .336 OBP last off-season in the 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings, and he ended up hitting .262 with a .336 OBP. Not too bad if I don’t say so myself. I was a little too heavy on the power (.463 projected SLG vs. .433 actual SLG), but taking into account the dead ball, that was probably pretty close too. I wrote in the 2022 Top 1,000, “I’m not expecting him to step into the majors and be a star, but he looks like a great bet to be a damn good overall hitter,” and that is more or less exactly how it played out with a 116 wRC+. Now that he was a full year under his belt to get acclimated, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step forward in 2023. 2023 Projection: 81/23/74/.267/.339/.451/11
Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 25.11 – I want to like Hoerner more, but I’m struggling to get over the poor 87.2/89.8 MPH AVG/FB EV which led to a below average .301 xwOBA and terrible 2.6% Barrel%. He also had a below average walk rate (5.4% BB%) and Chase% (33.7%). He’s a plus contact guy (11% K%) with plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint), so while crushing the ball isn’t necessarily his game, I think there’s a chance the bottom falls out offensively. It doesn’t worry me enough to stay away from him, but he’s not someone I am going to make sure I get. There are other lower cost speed options who I like the value on more. 2023 Projection: 76/10/62/.275/.324/.406/18
Starting Pitchers
Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 27.9 – Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation. He induces weak contact (87.1 MPH EV), keeps the ball on the ground (51.2% GB%), and misses bats (24.6% K%). That’s a great combo of skills. It led to a 3.18 ERA and 126 K’s in 119 IP. The one snafu is his control, putting up a 9.8% BB% and 1.35 WHIP, but even without control improvements that 1.35 WHIP feels high to me. He mostly went to this fastball/slider combo in 2022, but he has a 5 pitch mix and the curve and change performed very well in small doses. The overriding point is there are a few avenues of improvement, whether it be pitch mix changes and/or refining his control. I’m not going to stick my neck out for him, but I would be happy to roster Steele in leagues of all sizes in 2023. 2023 Projection: 9/3.66/1.27/157 in 150 IP
Bullpen
Brandon Hughes CHC, Closer Committee, 27.4 – There is a long off-season to go, but it doesn’t seem like a bad bet that Hughes will be able to get through it with at least a share of the closer job. His slider put up elite level whiffs with a 49.1% whiff% and it led to a 3.12 ERA with 68 K’s in 57.2 IP in his rookie year. He was untouchable in the minors with a 1.96 ERA and 124/34 K/BB in 91.2 IP from 2021-22). His 9.2% BB% isn’t great, and he’s not a flame thrower with a 93.2 MPH fastball, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience pitching, which leads me to believe there could be more room to grow than a typical 27 year old. If you wait on saves, Hughes is looking mighty juicy right now. 2023 Projection: 4/3.52/1.17/77/22 saves in 63 IP
Top 10 Chicago Cubs Fantasy Baseball Prospects
1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 21.0 – Armstrong had the power breakout I predicted in my Predicting the 2023 Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects from last off-season, writing, “Armstrong will not only pick up where he left off before he underwent shoulder surgery, he will show power potential many people doubt he has.” He ended up jacking 16 homers in 101 games split between Single-A and High-A. His speed wasn’t undersold either as he nabbed 32 bases. His plus CF defense will get him on the field, he has a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power. That is a beautiful fantasy profile. He’s not a finished product as his plate approach took a step back at the more age appropriate High-A with a mediocre 24%/4.9% K%/BB% in 63 games, but he could explode to elite prospect status if he performs in the upper minors in 2023. There is still a small buy window. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/18/66/.273/.335/.431/26
2) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 25.0 – The Marvelous Mr. Mervis set the baseball world on fire with his AFL performance, smashing 6 homers with a .914 OPS in 17 games, but being brutally honest, the .262 BA and .324 OBP isn’t super impressive for a 24 year old who was almost 2 years older than the average player. It’s also an extreme offensive environment. I always caution against putting too much stock into the AFL numbers, but in Mervis’ case, it wasn’t just the AFL, he ripped up the upper minors too, slashing .309/.379/.606 with 36 homers and a 18.5%/8.7% K%/BB% in 137 games split between 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). There is some platoon risk as he hits righties much better than lefties, and this was definitely the best year of his career by far with massive gains to both his power and contact, so there is some “career year” type risk here too. Chicago’s 1B job is wide open, but they have been rumored to be in the 1B market, so his path to playing time might not end up as clear as it’s looking right now. 2023 Projection: 59/20/66/.252/.317/.458/1 Prime Projection: 77/29/89/.264/.329/.482/2
3) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 23.5 – 2022 was the first speed bump in Davis’ career, and you can’t completely jump ship at the very first sign of struggle with a prospect as talented as Davis. You have to give him a chance to overcome adversity. He underwent back surgery and struggled at Triple-A both before and after the injury with a 77 wRC+ in 44 games at Triple-A. He played in the AFL where he teased his huge potential with a 1.048 OPS in 5 games, but was then shutdown with “general soreness” which they claim is unrelated to the back injury. No two ways about it, it was a disaster year, but years like this happen in baseball. He’s still an elite athlete at 6’4”, 210 pounds. I would be surprised if he didn’t come back with a big year in 2023. 2023 Projection: 29/9/33/.229/.304/.430/4 Prime Projection: 79/27/82/.253/.332/.470/8
4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 20.9 – Alcantara didn’t have the huge statistical breakout, but he still hit damn well, slashing .273/.360/.451 with 15 homers, 14 steals, and a 24.8%/11.1% K%/BB% in 112 games at Single-A. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6”, 188 pounds and is an excellent athlete, playing mostly in CF. He’s extremely easy to dream on with upside for days. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/81/.250/.327/.466/11
5) Hayden Wesneski CHC, RHP, 25.4 – Wesneski impressed in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.18/0.94/33/7 in 33 IP. He did it on the back of near elite control (5.3% BB%) and weak contact (84.5 MPH EV against). I’m still staying a bit hesitant because he didn’t show this level of control or production at Triple-A with a 3.92 ERA and 106/33 K/BB in 110.1 IP, and his stuff isn’t exactly overpowering with a 93.1 MPH fastball and a slider that put up a decent, but not elite 33.3% whiff%. He throws a 5 pitch mix and he understands the art of the pitching, so I think he’ll be a solid MLB starter, but I’m not sure he’s going to be a fantasy difference maker. 2023 Projection: 8/4.15/1.28/136 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.86/1.22/171 in 170 IP
6) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 22.11 – Canario has one of the most visually explosive swings in the minors. If a bazooka played baseball, it would swing like Canario. He demolished 37 homers in 125 games split across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA). He has speed too with 23 steals. It’s the hit tool that is the issue. He had a 27.5% K% overall, and his BA tanked to .248 at Double-A, .231 at Triple-A, and .172 in the Dominican Winter League. Speaking of the Dominican Winter League, he suffered a serious injury on the bases which required surgery for a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder. His availability for the start of 2023 is in question. When healthy, I have no doubt he’ll do damage against any level of pitcher, but it just might come with a batting average that flirts with the Mendoza line. 2023 Projection: 28/10/33/.219/.297/.431/5 Prime Projection: 71/27/79/.232/.314/.458/10
7) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Selected 7th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Horton underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2021, so he was just rounding into form during the 2nd half of 2022, resulting in him peaking during the College World Series with dominant outing after dominant outing. Plus mid 90’s heat with an at least plus slider is his game, and that combo gives him high upside with the floor of a high leverage reliever. He also throws a curve and change, and he hasn’t shown any major control issues in the short time he’s pitched in college (53.2 IP in his college career all coming this year). Chicago is clearly taking advantage of the lack of track record and betting on the upside. It’s your call if you want to do the same. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/180 in 163 IP
8) James Triantos CHC, 3B, 20.2 – Triantos has a short and quick righty swing that is made for contact. He had a 16.1%/7.7% K%/BB% with a .272 BA in 113 games at Single-A. The power just isn’t here yet with only 7 homers and a .386 slugging, and quite frankly, he’s already pretty thick. I’m sure he will add more power considering he’s barely 20 years old, but he’s definitely a hit tool first player. He’s not a burner, but he does have some speed, nabbing 20 bags in 23 attempts. It’s not my favorite profile to go after in fantasy, but he’s a safe prospect with solid across the board potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 84/18/66/.281/.342/.429/11
9) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 20.9 – Caissie didn’t have a huge statistical season with a 113 wRC+ and 11 homers in 105 games, but taking into account Chicago gave him an aggressive assignment to High-A as a 19 year old, it’s not bad at all. He’s the same age as Kevin Alcantara who they sent to Single-A for comparison. Caissie’s 6’4”, 190 pounds with a smooth lefty swing that is a geared for both power and average, but he’ll have to cut down on the K’s to maximize both with a 28.6% K%. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 74/25/78/.248/.332/.452/4
10) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 19.5 – Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due. Ballesteros is built like a slightly taller, lefty swinging version of Alejandro Kirk, and his profile isn’t that far off from Kirk’s, except the hit tool isn’t quite on that level. He was a former high priced international signing who handled his business in 2021 in the DSL with a 128 wRC+ and 12.8%/16.6% K%/BB% in 48 games. He debuted in stateside rookie ball in 2022 with added power, jacking 7 homers in 32 games, while proving the plus plate approach is for real with a 17.3%/11.8% K%/BB%. He put the cherry on top of his season by making his full season debut and putting up a 109 wRC+ with a 21.7%/14% K%/BB% in 31 games as an 18 year old. The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/23/76/.270/.342/.462/1
Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)
With the signings of Koudai Senga to the Mets for 5 years, $75 million and Masataka Yoshida to the Red Sox for 5 years, $90 million, the question turns to when to jump on these guys in First Year Players Drafts. Well, I would argue the question should be if these guys should be included in off-season prospect drafts to begin with. They will be 30 and 29 years old this season. They should really be included in the MLB draft/auction. Including them in a prospect draft completely defeats the purpose of having a separate prospect draft, which is that you aren’t forced to choose between solid MLB vets and high upside teenagers. But I know these guys will be included in prospect drafts in most leagues, so let’s get down to business. In general, my strategy in First Year Player Drafts and off-season prospects drafts is to strike gold on the next Julio/Acuna/Soto etc … This is your chance to hit on future superstars or future top 5 prospects who you can trade for current superstars. It’s not really the place to go after a mid rotation starter (Senga) or a solid OF bat (Yoshida). You can get that type of production in the MLB draft/auction. In very deep leagues where there might literally be nothing on the waiver wire, I can see taking either Senga or Yoshida as high as 3rd overall. Zero chance I’m passing on Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday for either of them in any size league. In shallow to medium size leagues, I wouldn’t start to consider Senga until after my Top 7 are off the board in my Top 43 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings, and Masataka until my Top 13 are off the board.
Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Los Angeles Dodgers (free)—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Toronto Blue Jays—Washington Nationals
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B//TOP 105 2B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)