I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/12/25):
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–APRIL 2025 TOP 437 DYNASTY RANKS (4/25/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS
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Pete Crow-Armstrong – CHC, OF, 23.1 – Make it double digits for Pete Crow as he destroyed his 10th homer of the year into the upper deck at Citi Field. I’ve been pounding the table for Pete Crow Armstrong for so long now that I don’t have a table in my house that isn’t cracked and broken. I have to eat dinner standing up now. The Crow now has a 13.8% Barrel%, 90 MPH EV, and 22.1 degree launch in 41 games and is on pace for almost 40 dingers with 50 steals. I ranked him all the way up at 64th overall in the off-season Top 1,000 Rankings, starting off his blurb by writing, “Pete Crow Armstrong’s power has been underrated from the time he was drafted,” and ending with “Put some respect on this man’s name. His name is Pete Crow Armstrong, not Pete Crow Armweak.” Well, I think now people know. He moved all the way up to 33rd overall on the recently updated April Top 423 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and I’m not even sure that was high enough. I would value PCA as a Top 20 dynasty asset at the very least right now. Damn he’s fun.
Luis Morales – OAK, RHP, 22.7 – 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 11/1 K/BB at Double-A. The Bubba Chandler 2.0 glow up at Double-A just keeps on cementing. He was pumping upper 90’s heat for whiffs all day, which he would then follow up with vicious sliders. He utterly demoralized the competition. After his 7th strikeout vs. Logan Cerny, I’ve never seen someone walk away from the plate so dejected. He just dropped his bat and hung his head in shame as he walked back to the dugout. I saw the writing on the wall this off-season, starting Morales’ Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “This isn’t a comp, but Morales reminds me a lot of where Bubba Chandler was sitting last off-season. Like Chandler, Morales is a huge talent ($3 million signing bonus in 2023), with a scouts dream build at 6’3”, 190 pounds (although Chandler was more built up and wider), super obvious humongous stuff, below average control, and mediocre results at High-A. Morales put up a 4.22 ERA with a 24.9/10.7 K%/BB% in 81 IP at the level while Chandler put up a 4.75 ERA with a 25.6/10.9 K%/BB% in 106 IP at the level.” … and now just like Chandler, Morales is blowing up at Double-A with a 2.97 ERA and 31.5/9.8 K%/BB% in 36.1 IP. He already rose all the way up to 33rd overall on my Updated Top 323 May Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that just dropped on the Patreon last week, and it still seems like there is time to get in. He’s still underrated.
Addison Barger – TOR, 3B/OF, 25.5 – It’s time to target Barger everywhere. He went 2 for 4 with a 107.2 MPH homer and 103.5 MPH single yesterday. I wanted to make him a major target this off-season, but the only thing holding me back was his defense, and right now, he actually has a positive 2.6 defensive value, which is getting me pumped, because his bat is no joke. He has an elite 76.3 MPH swing with a 13.6% Barrel%, 96.1 MPH EV. 13.5 degree launch, and .362 xwOBA in 59 PA. The plate skills are taking a big jump forward too with his K% all the way down to 16.9% (26.7% in 2024) and his Chase all the way down to 20.2% (31.5% in 2024). He’s still in a scrum for playing time, and it might be a platoon role, but I’m sorry, you can not keep this bat off the field. Barger is a major target right now. Go after him.
Caleb Durbin – MIL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – 0 for 3 and now has a .581 OPS with 0 barrels, an 83.7 MPH EV, and a negative 1.4 defensive value in 22 games. I like Durbin. I’m rooting for the little cutie at 5’7”, and he makes a ton of contact with a 5% K%, but 3B is for power hitting beasts, and Milwaukee just so happens to have one of those behemoths ripping up the minors right now …
Brock Wilken – MIL, 3B, 22.11 – and that man’s name is Brock Wilken. I held strong on Wilken’s value this off-season, putting him in my Top 100 at #87, and he’s rewarding that patience with a big year at Double-A. He went 3 for 4 with a dinger yesterday and he now has 8 homers with a 26.2/23.4 K%/BB% and 176 wRC+ in 33 games. He had a down year in 2024, but that was due to getting rocked in the face with a pitch on April 11th, sustaining multiple facial fractures. He talked about how hard it was to come back from that mentally this off-season. He’s over it now though. And he’s coming for that 3B job sooner rather than later.
Rafael Devers – BOS, 3B, 28.6 – 2 for 3 with a 110.4 MPH homer off Seth Lugo. First off, it’s great to see the shoulder problems seem to be behind Devers. His 18.8% Barrel%, 95.6 MPH EV and 61.6% Hard Hit% are all career bests. It sure seems like he’s taking to DH quite well … possibly too well, because now he refuses to move off the position. And I mean, I get it. I played 3B and 2B in my career through high school, and I also hated when they made me play 1B. I felt like a fish out of water. I wasn’t good at it. It was hard to learn. I get it … but … unlike Devers, I didn’t refuse to play it hah. I did the best I could and I did what was best for the team. So even though I relate to Devers, hopefully he comes around eventually.
Josh Jung – TEX, 3B, 27.3 – 2 for 4 with a 107.4 MPH homer for his 4th in 32 games. Jung hasn’t exactly been blowing up with a .732 OPS, but I’m extremely encouraged by his start. He got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist just 4 games into the 2024 season, and he didn’t look the same when he returned later that year. We’ve seen wrist injuries linger and even end player’s careers (Alex Kirilloff), so I love the see that Jung has a 13.2% Barrel% with a 95.5 MPH FB/LD EV on the season. He’s back to hitting the ball very hard, and he’s doing it with career bests in K% (21.1%), whiff% (23.7%) and Chase% (30.7%). He’s starting to look like the special hitter trajectory he was on after his rookie year in 2023. Buy now while the surface stats still look mediocre.
Lars Nootbaar – STL, OF, 27.6 – I’ve been ringing the buy bell on Nootbaar all season with his launch all the way up to 17.7 degrees, and unsurprisingly, the dingers keep on coming with him cracking a 108.1 MPH homer off Mackenzie Gore for his 6th in 40 games. He’s always hit the ball really hard with an elite plate approach, and seeing neither of those strengths in his game drop off even a smidge with the added launch is damn impressive. In fact, he’s never hit the ball harder with a career high 50.8% Hard Hit%, or swung the bat faster with a 74.5 MPH swing (up almost 2 MPH from 2024). He’s also on a career high stolen base pace with 4 steals. This is a full on blow up and I’m buying hard here.
Wilyer Abreu – BOS, OF, 25.10 – 3 for 4 with a 107.9 MPH homer, 107.4 MPH single, and 106.9 MPH single. Abreu jumped up to #161 overall on the Updated Top 437 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), and here is what I wrote for him, “I’m ashamed of myself for not being higher on Abreu. He was one of my favorite target hits ever, and I let him down this off-season. He has double plus bat speed, he hit the ball hard, he lifts it, and the plate skills are taking a big step forward this year. One the flip side, he’s not hitting lefties well and he’s not playing against them very often either. And the biggest concern, which scared me this off-season, was Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer on the way. It’s a lot of mouths to feed.” … He’s still not playing vs. lefties very much, but the damage he is doing vs. righties more than makes up for it. His .411 xwOBA is in the top 6% of baseball. He’s also an above average defensive player. Treat this man like the young star he is. His value continues to rise.
Heliot Ramos – SFG, OF, 25.8 – 2 for 2 with a 105.4 MPH homer off Pablo Lopez at Minnesota. He now has 6 homers with a .968 OPS on the road vs. 1 homer with a .611 OPS at home. This dude could be a superstar hitting almost anywhere else other than San Francisco, but even dealing with that handicap, he’s so damn good he’s still powering through with a strong year. He has a 14.2% Barrel% with a 91.2 MPH EV and .365 xwOBA in 40 games. The hit tool is taking steps forward too with career bests in K% (23.5%) and whiff% (23.8K%). I was all in on Ramos this off-season, naming him a target due to his short and quick swing, and he’s one of many that is proving betting on the bat speed data standouts was not for naught. So many of my targets are paying off. Ramos would have paid off more if not for San Francisco, but nothing we can do about that.
Hunter Goodman – COL, C/OF, 25.6 – Speaking of bat speed breakouts, Goodman’s double plus swing made him a fun target once it was clear Colorado was serious about letting him loose at catcher, and he’s using that powerful swing to keep on hitting dingers, going 3 for 5 with a 108.7 MPH homer and a 116.2 MPH double!!!! He now has 6 homers with a .835 OPS in 25 games, and while he’s likely getting lucky as the .310 xwOBA and 32% whiff% aren’t quite as impressive as the surface stats, it’s clear he has an impact fantasy bat for a catcher at the least.
Brooks Lee – MIN, SS/3B/2B, 24.2 – I rang the 5 alarm target bell on Lee last week in the Rundowns, and he went off yesterday, going 3 for 5 with a 100.9 MPH homer, 100.7 MPH single and 100.3 MPH single. What got me so excited is that this is a high contact player who was seeing big gains in his power. The 11% Barrel%, 89.2 MPH EV and 41.1% Hard Hit% are all career highs by far. His righty swing is almost 3 MPH faster at 73 MPH and his lefty swing is up 1.2 MPH to 70.3 MPH. The fantasy upside is capped by how damn slow he is though. You can time him with a sundial, as my high school baseball coach used to love to yell at me. His 25.9 ft/sec sprint is in the bottom 20% of the league. So you are getting very few steals and it hurts him in runs too, but we are seeing a very real power uptick, and that is worth buying.
Ben Rice – NYY, 1B, 26.7 – For the people waiting on Ben Rice to all of a sudden spot hitting, you can keep on waiting, because Rice isn’t going anywhere. He went 1 for 2 with a 111.2 MPH bomb off Mitch Spence for his 9th in 36 games. You already know Rice was a major target for me this off-season. Here is what I wrote about him in my off-season 19 Dynasty Baseball Strategies/Thoughts for 2025 (A Collection from the 2025 Dynasty Baseball Team Reports), “4) For even the most iron willed dynasty owner, it is a major gut punch when a prospect you love gets the call to the majors, struggles hard, and then gets sent back down to the minors. When it happens to an elite or near elite universally hyped prospect, it’s much easier to stay level headed and hold strong, but when it happens to a good, but not necessarily great prospect it can be much tougher to hold on. Trade value plummets for the non elite guys, and you start to question if their team truly believes in them, thinking they might not get another chance so soon. But let us use Lawrence Butler (and Parker Meadows too) as a lesson to not let a demotion rattle us if we still believe in a player’s skillset. Even elite prospects can struggle in their first taste or two of the majors, so certainly we need to give some grace for non elite ones as well. How to apply that for this season? Well, Ben Rice is staring us right in the face. Rice is not an elite prospect, but he is a relatively well liked one, and he took almost the exact same Butler path in the majors with great underlying numbers (15.6% Barrel%) and poor surface stats (.613 OPS in 173 PA). Admit it, you are questioning how much the Yanks really believe in him and if he will get another chance. I get it, because I am too, but I’m going to use Butler and Meadows as my pillars of strength to not be so quick to give up on Rice. I still like him long term, even with the Goldy signing.”
Mark Vientos – NYM, 3B, 25.4 – 2 for 4 with a 101.4 MPH homer off Mathew Boyd for his 5th in 37 games. It hasn’t been the best start for Vientos, but I would 100% stay the course here. He’s brought his K rate all the way down from 29.7% in 2024 to 20.4% in 2025, which is huge to see, and it’s backed up by a 4.6 percentage point drop in whiff% and a 3.9 percentage point drop in chase%. He’s improving in the areas we wanted to see improvement, and we know the monster power is in there with a 90.5/94.6 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s an easy hold, and a buy low if you can.
Mike Burrows – PIT, RHP, 25.5 – 4.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 11/2 K/BB at Triple-A. The fastball sat 94.7 MPH and put up a 39% whiff% while the changeup put up a 86%!!! whiff%. The slider missed some bats too, leading to a 45% whiff% overall. He now has a 2.63 ERA with a 32.7/9.1 K%/BB% in 27.1 IP. I’ve always felt Burrows was too underrated, giving him a solid ranking at #273 this off-season, and with his dominance in Triple-A, he rose into the Top 200 in the latest update. The Pirates Triple-A rotation is probably better than some MLB rotations right now with Burrows, Chandler, Ashcraft, Harrington and Barco all knocking on the door. I have no idea how they fit all of these guys into the rotation, but these things usually work themselves out.
Chen-Wei Lin – STL, RHP, 23.5 – Lin didn’t pitch especially well yesterday, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 1 ER (4 unearned) and a 3/0 K/BB at High-A, but this is just your reminder that he’s back on the mound after getting a late start to the season, and it’s also your reminder to get in now before his value starts to explode. He’s 6’7” with upper 90’s heat and bat missing secondaries. It’s only a matter of time before everyone realizes how good this kid is.
Drew Beam – KCR, RHP, 22.1 – 4 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB at High-A. Beam’s skills are officially transferring to pro ball with a 2.55 ERA and 24.8/5.7 K%/BB% in 35.1 IP at High-A. He’s 6’4”, 208 pounds with average to above average stuff (two 94 MPH fastballs, a curve and a changeup) that plays up due to the plus control. Kansas City’s ballpark will be perfect for this type of profile too. He might not have huge upside, but especially in KC, he can be a solid mid rotation starter. He’s a solid pitching prospect.
Braden Nett – SDP, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. I’ve been sleeping on Nett, but that ends now, as he looked quite impressive yesterday. His fastball got up to 98 MPH and he was just straight blowing it by guys. He combines the heat with a couple of bat missing breakers, and it’s resulted in a 4.20 ERA and 27.4/9.6 K%/BB% in 30 IP. There is still major bullpen risk with major control problems throughout his career, but the walk rate is taking a big step forward this year, and the big stuff is worth betting on.
Cole Carrigg – COL, OF, 22.10 – I was waiting to see if Carrigg could keep up the great lower minors production in the upper minors, and he’s answered that question quite easily in 2025 after blasting off for 2 more homers yesterday. He’s now slashing .288/.388/.563 with 7 homers, 9 steals, and a 27.3/11.6 K%/BB% in 28 games at Double-A. The K% is a tad too high, but it’s been coming down of late, and the fantasy upside is shining through. I would value him a Top 100 fantasy prospect right now.
Mike Sirota – LAD, OF, 21.11 – Speaking of newly minted Top 100 fantasy prospects, Sirota just cracked my Top 100, and then he cracked 2 more bombs at Single-A. He’s making a mockery of the level, slashing .354/.443/.687 with 7 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.7/13.0 K%/BB% in 24 games. I would like to see him run a bit more, and would also obviously like to see him keep this up at higher levels, but this was a potential Top 10 draft pick coming into the 2024 season, and now he has the production to match the talent. The Dodgers done did it again.
Jefferson Rojas – CHC, SS, 20.0 – Rojas joined the 2 homer parade yesterday, going 3 for 4 with 2 homers at High-A, and he’s now slashing .300/.387/.513 with 4 homers, 5 steals, and a 14.0/10.8 K%/BB% in 21 games. He’s never been my favorite prospect, but it sure looks like the power is ticking up this year, which he combines with his already strong across the board profile. His value is on the rise.
Jacob Reimer – NYM, 3B, 21.2 – Say hello to the best qualified hitter at High-A. Jacob Reimer leads all hitters at High-A with a 198 wRC+, and he tacked onto his lead yesterday with his 6th homer in 30 games. He was once upon a time a deep FYPD target for me in a tier with Alex Freeland, Luke Adams, and Nacho Alvarez. None of them has done anything in the majors yet, but from their non existent hype at the time, all of them have seen big value rises, and now it’s Reimer’s turn to take centerstage. He’s got real power at 6’0”, 205 pounds, the plate approach is solid (20.0/11.1 K%/BB%) and now he’s lifting and pulling a ton more with a 36% GB% and 46.7% Pull%. He just moved into my Top 300, and he might be pushing Top 200 value right now.
Brailer Guerrero – TBR, OF, 18.10 – The Brailer Guerrero breakout continues to quietly lurk just under the radar, but it got a bit louder yesterday with him blasting his first homer of the season at Single-A. He’s now slashing .308/.438/.487 with 1 homer, 4 steals, and a 29.2/18.8 K%/BB% in 11 games at Single-A as an 18 year old. That’s good for a 166 wRC+. The K rate and 56.5% GB% are both a bit higher than optimal, but this dude can crush the ball and is a breakout waiting to happen. It might be time to pounce, and at the least keep a very, very close eye on him.
Tim Elko – CHW, 1B, 26.4 – Elko popped onto the back at #309 of the Updated Top 323 Dynasty Prospects Rankings (Patreon), writing, “He’s a classic Quad-A slugger, MLB bench bat type with 10 homers and a 29.6 K% at Triple-A, but Chicago is in full rebuild, and if they give him time, he’ll hit dingers” … right on cue, Chicago called him up, and he did in fact hit dingers with a 101.4 MPH homer off Sandy Alcantara for the 1st of his career. He’s 1 for 6 on his young career. The BA could be terrible, but the power is no joke.
Matthew Lugo – LAA, OF, 23.10 – Speaking of hitting your first MLB dinger, Matthew Lugo joined that club yesterday with a 108 MPH homer off Felix Bautista. He did it coming off the bench for Jo Adell, he of the 65 wRC+ and negative 3.5 defensive value. He has a negative 0.4 WAR right now. I might be insane, but I actually don’t want to give up on Adell yet as his .330 xwOBA is actually much better than his surface stats, but I mean, he’s going on his 6th year of being brutal. The problem is that Lugo hasn’t been all that great at Triple-A himself with a 65 wRC+, so I don’t think a change here is imminent, but I liked Lugo this off-season, and even with the slow start, he would be worth a shot if he does find his way into the lineup more. Just a keep your eye situation right now.
Jordan Lawlar – ARI, SS, 22.10 – The wait is over. Lawlar is getting the call to the big league club after demolishing Triple-A all season. He just ranked 2nd overall on my Updated Top 323 Prospects Ranks, and while it doesn’t seem like there is an open spot for him, Arizona claims they will be able to find at bats for him. Optimally you want to call a guy up like this to a full time job, but he’s too good to not be helping the big league club, so I get it. He’ll get eased in, and then when Eugenio Suarez’ contract runs out after this season, he will take over 3B for good.
CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
–APRIL 2025 TOP 437 DYNASTY RANKS (4/25/25)
–MAY 2025 TOP 323 PROSPECTS RANKS
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2026 PROSPECTS RANKS
–SPREADSHEETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: APRIL MAILBAG!
By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)
Blue Sky: Dynasty Halp (@ImaginaryBrickWall)
But I did move Shenton up higher than I had him. He destroyed the Cape, slashing .348/.450/.490, and while he doesn’t have huge power, his hit tool is definitely going to play. Prime Projection: 79/21/81/.278/.346/.456/5 ETA: 2022 2019 Top 472 Prospects Ranking: #285 – ranked around Trevor Rogers, Willi Castro, and Bryan Abreu.