Chase Hampton – Imaginary Brick Wall

The 2024 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, the Top 100 FYPD rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Hitters

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 23.10 – I guess the Devil only has room for one Yankees rookie on his ledger, because I see no promises made for Peraza in 2024. He swung and missed far too often for his type of profile with a 33.1% whiff% in 191 PA, which led to a .191 BA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to make up for the swing and miss with a below average 87.2 MPH EV in the majors and 85.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. He also has never really been a big OBP guy with mostly mediocre walks rates throughout his career. The plus speed and defense are what carries his profile, and while both are good enough to make Peraza an attractive low cost option, his former prospect hype could push his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 53/9/46/.238/.299/.388/17 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.254/.319/.415/23

Pitchers

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.10 – King pitched too damn well once being transitioned to a starter to leave a ton of value on the bone. He put up a 2.02 ERA with a 45/7 K/BB in his final 35.2 IP. There is nothing in the underlying data to say it was a fluke, and he’s been lights out for 2 years now in whatever role the Yanks put him in. The stuff is good, he misses bats, he induces weak contact, and he doesn’t have any major control issues. He was also a starter throughout his minor league career, so it’s not like starting is a new challenge for him. Everything is pointing towards him being for real, but there are a couple things to consider before you really sell the farm for him. His velocity was slowly declining to close out the season, and he also had a serious arm injury in 2022 (fractured elbow which required surgery). It adds at least some doubt if he can truly keep up this level of production under a full starter’s workload. I’m willing to go after him if the price doesn’t get too out of control, but I’m concerned with how he closed out the season, his price could get too out of control. 2024 Projection: 9/3.51/1.19/162 in 145 IP

Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 31.4 – An elbow and back injury delayed the start of Rodon’s season until July, and while there were glimpses of him regaining his old form, it was mostly a straight disaster with a 6.85 ERA and 22.4%/9.8% K%/BB% in 64.1 IP. His finish to the season was the most concerning as his velocity was way down, and he gave up 8 earned runs without recording a single out in his final outing. If you’re a glass half full person, you can look at this as a lost season due to the injuries and expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2024, but if you’re a glass half empty person, you are looking at him like a ticking time bomb, especially with his injury history. I’m the type of person who looks at that glass and sees the water in the middle (I live in the gray), which is how I would value Rodon for next year. 2024 Projection: 9/3.57/1.20/160 in 140 IP

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.4 – Holmes 27.1% K% isn’t high enough to put him in the truly elite closer tier when you have guys like Felix Bautista putting up a 46.4% K% (and plenty of others in the mid to high 30’s), but he’s in the tier right under that. He uses a 96 MPH sinker which he throws 69.2% of the time to keep the ball on the ground (negative 3.4 degree launch), and he uses a dominant slider (.176 xwOBA and 43.1% whiff%) and sweeper (.079 xwOBA and 44.2% whiff%) to miss bats. He’s locked in as the Yanks closer for 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.09/1.12/72/32 saves in 64 IP

New York Yankees Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

2) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

3) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 19.7 – Arias has elite prospect written all over him, and with a good showing in full season ball in 2024, it won’t be long before he skyrockets into the Top 10 overall. He hits the ball hard (6 homers in 27 games in stateside rookie ball), he has speed (17 steals), he has an excellent plate approach (22.3%/20.8% K%/BB%), he’s a good defender, and he has pedigree ($4 million international signing). He most certainly looks the part too with a vicious lefty swing (he went 2 for 11 on the entire season hitting righty). He won’t come super cheap this off-season, but he’s easily worth targeting at his current price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/22/80/.264/.348/.471/24

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 24.9 – Wells’ MLB debut gave me a ton of confidence that the profile will transfer. He had a 14% barrel%, 89.5 MPH EV, 13.6 degree launch, 18.7% K%, and .367 xwOBA in 75 PA. Boone also praised his defense. He didn’t exactly blow the doors off the upper minors, but he still hit 17 homers in 96 games. The Yankee Stadium short porch is perfect for him, and the bar to clear to be an impact fantasy catcher isn’t very high right now. I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy beast, but I do foresee a top 10 fantasy catcher for years to come. 2024 Projection: 56/18/63/.235/.307/.410/3 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.252/.331/.442/5

5) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 23.0 – Pereira’s 43.1% whiff%, 38.8% K%, and 23 wRC+ in his 103 PA MLB debut is exactly what we didn’t want to see happen. That is the kind of disaster MLB debut that has to make you think twice about betting on a player, but I would be careful about giving up on Pereira too fast. He truly crushes the ball, he has well above average speed, and he decimated the upper minors with a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and 132 wRC+ at Triple-A. You only have to look at his teammate, Aaron Judge, to find hope, as Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his 95 PA MLB debut in 2016. When a guy hits the ball this hard, you don’t need to be Luis Arraez to do damage. The extreme swing and miss does have me less excited for him than I was before his debut, but I’m still betting on his talent long term. 2024 Projection: 44/17/51/.222/.291/.434/9 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.244/.320/.482/12

6) Drew Thorpe NYY, RHP, 23.6 – Who needs a huge fastball anyway? Thorpe’s double plus changeup and above average slider was more than enough to obliterate minor leaguers. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 109 IP at High-A, and then he went to Double-A and was even better with a 1.48 ERA and 40%/4.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. He’s a big boy at 6’4”, 225 pounds and his command is very good too. Plus changeup guys can sometimes get exposed against MLB hitters, and the aforementioned fastball only sits low to mid 90’s, which is why I’m hesitant to truly put top of the rotation upside on him, but this is a high floor starter with legit upside who should be up in the bigs very quickly into 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/4.13/1.28/92 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.18/190 in 175 IP

7) John Cruz NYY, OF, 18.7 – If Cruz were eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft, his hype would be through the roof. He has the scout’s dream build at a projectable 6’3”, 171 pounds, and it comes with a quick and powerful lefty swing. It resulted in him ripping up stateside rookie ball as a 17 year old, slashing .294/.376/.531 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. Power, speed, build, production, age to level … this is everything you look for in a shooting star prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/27/87/.251/.324/.473/12

8) George Lombard NYY, SS, 18.10 – Selected 26th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lombard has baseball bloodlines with his father playing 6 years in the big leagues, and like most plus bloodlines kids, his game is mature beyond his years. He stepped right into pro ball and put up a 202 wRC+ with a 2/5 K/BB in 4 games at rookie ball, and then he closed the year out at Single-A with a 114 wRC+ and 10/8 K/BB in 9 games. He combines the high baseball IQ with plus athleticism at 6’3”, 190 pounds, and has the potential for an at least above average power/speed combo at peak. This is a really nice blend of safety and upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/77/.268/.341/.450/16

9) Chase Hampton NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Hampton wasn’t quite able to keep up the breakout at Double-A with his ERA jumping from 2.68 at High-A to 4.37 at Double-A, and his K% dropping from 40.5% to 27.4%, but that shouldn’t put a damper on his excellent season, because he has the big stuff to get excited about. He’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change). The command is solid. With the production taking a step back against more advanced competition, I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but I certainly think he can be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter at peak. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.33/86 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/177 in 170 IP

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 20.3 – Delgado backed up his 2022 breakout in the DSL with all of his skills transferring stateside in 2023, slashing .293/.414/.485 with 8 homers, 36 steals, and a 13%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. Proving it stateside is one box checked off, but he was still one year older than optimal for the level, and he is still a small guy at only 5’7”. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he ended up a utility infielder, but he’s a legitimately electric player who I think can overcome his small stature. If he can keep up the production at a more age appropriate level, he will be an easy Top 100 prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.343/.428/26

Just Missed

11) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS/2B/3B, 19.3

12) Brando Mayea NYY, OF, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 24.10

14) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 23.11

15) Henry Lalane NYY, LHP, 19.10

16) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be a pain in the ass to own prospects from big market teams because of how easily those teams can go out and sign proven talent, which in turn blocks our favorite prospects, but the Yankees are too far deep into the youth movement to all of a sudden majorly change course this off-season. They also don’t have a ton of money coming off the books, making it even less likely that their top prospects get blocked. The combination of talent, proximity, opportunity and ballpark (Yankee Stadium has the perfect combo for fantasy of juicing up homers while being a fairly neutral park overall) provides so many juicy targets to go after this off-season for dynasty.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)