Cody Bellinger – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on February 7, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues (Patreon)

I gave you a day to catch your breath with the Top 583 2024 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings dropping on Monday. Now it’s time to unveil the Top 1,146 2024 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on the Patreon. Top 80 are free here on the Brick Wall. Analysis and Prime Projections for every player. The All-in-One Spreadsheet is also coming soon. These lists will be released here on Imaginary Brick Wall in late March. Here is the Top 1,000 Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues:

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1) Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL, OF, 26.3 – Acuna went 40/70, but somehow the most mind blowing thing about his 2023 season is that he all of a sudden turned into an elite contact hitter with an 11.4% K% (23.6% in 2022). He also must have eaten his spinach this off-season, because the six foot Acuna Popeye’d the league with the type of exit velocity numbers usually reserved for giant human beings only. His 121.2 Max EV was the hardest hit ball all season. The next 6 leaders in that category were the 6’6” Giancarlo Stanton, the 6’5” Elly De La Cruz, the 6’4” Shohei Ohtani, the 6’5” Matt Olson, the 6’2” Jake Burger, and the 6’5” Yordan Alvarez. His 94.7 MPH AVG EV was bested only by the superhuman Aaron Judge (97.6 MPH). He got slower with a career worst 28 ft/sec sprint, but he still stole 73 bags. He hit the ball on the ground more than ever with a career high 49.5% GB%, but he still hit 41 bombs. He’s the undisputed #1 overall dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 132/37/103/.318/.398/.582/61

2) Bobby Witt Jr. KCR, SS, 23.10 – Witt is Exhibit A on why you should be betting on Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker in 2024. When an elite prospect shows all the ingredients of a future breakout in their rookie year, you need to be all over whatever small discount you can get them for. These are the type of breakouts that look so obvious in hindsight, you forget you ever doubted them in the first place. Witt raised his FB/LD EV from 92.6 MPH in 2022 to 94.4 MPH in 2023 and all hell broke loose with him cracking 30 dingers. He also lowered his K% by 4 percentage points to 17.4% and raised his BB% by 1.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The scary thing is that he was on the unlucky side too with a .343 wOBA vs. .373 xwOBA. There is another level to unlock here. His .904 2nd half OPS is probably what he has in store for us in 2024. 2024 Projection: 102/34/107/.283/.336/.522/47

3) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 23.7 – The 5’10” Carroll laughs at me for even hinting that the 6’0” Acuna isn’t big. Carroll truly had to deal with the little man discrimination his entire career, falling to a ridiculous 16th overall in the 2019 MLB Draft (I ranked him 3rd overall personally). He’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong since then, culminating with a rookie season that immediately catapulted him to elite dynasty status. He smashed 25 homers with a 90 MPH EV. Nobody doubted his speed, and he didn’t disappoint with 54 steals and a 30.1 ft/sec sprint. The cherry on top is that he put up career best contact rates with a 19.4% K%, and that includes his entire minor league career going back to rookie ball. The only thing that could stop him is the major shoulder injury he suffered in 2021 which reared it’s ugly head again this July. He doubled over in pain after a swing and said, “I took a swing, and I felt a shift in my shoulder, shocking, tingling sensation go down my arm and then my hand go numb. I was just holding it thinking it came out of the socket, pretty much thought that the season was over.” It ended up being “minor,” but I’m not sure how you can’t at least have that in the back of your mind when ranking Carroll. He’s too good to be scared off by it, but my tolerance for injury risk might be higher than yours. 2024 Projection: 121/28/85/.288/.374/.496/52

4) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 23.3 – When Julio gets off to a slow start in 2024, remind yourself not to panic. 2023 was the 2nd year in a row where it took him a minute to hit his stride. He put up a mediocre .721 OPS in 87 games pre break before exploding in the 2nd half, slashing .308/.363/.578 with 19 homers and 15 steals in 68 games. He crushes the ball with a 92.7 MPH EV that led to 32 homers, and he’s lightning fast with a 29.6 ft/sec sprint that led to 37 steals. The only weakness he has that the guys ranked above him don’t have is a poor approach. His 37.4% chase rate is well below average and so is his 28.2% whiff%. I’m betting on the plate approach improving as he gains more experience, but the guys ranked above him are already further along. 2024 Projection: 104/33/105/.280/.341/.507/38

5) Shohei “(deferred) Money” Ohtani LAD, RHP/DH, 29.9 – First there were asterisks for juiced players. Then there were asterisks for juiced balls. And now there are asterisks for juiced contracts. The 700* million dollar man (*680 million of it deferred) tore the UCL in his right elbow in August and seems like he opted to go with an internal brace procedure rather than get his 2nd Tommy John surgery in 5 years. It’s still a serious surgery that will prevent him from pitching until 2025, but he’s expected to be good to go as hitter at the start of 2024. As we saw with Bryce Harper, the odds Ohtani will continue to be an elite hitter are very high, but we can’t be surprised if he doesn’t get back to prime form until the 2nd half. He was in the midst of the best offensive season of his career with career highs everywhere you look (EV, wOBA, xwOBA, K%, BB%, Hard Hit%), and his 180 wRC+ led the league by a good margin (Judge was 2nd at 174). I’m not concerned with Ohtani’s bat at all, but it’s fair to question his ability to stay healthy as a pitcher. His stuff is so good with a 96.8 MPH fastball that he could probably stand to lose a tick or two and still be near elite. He also strikes me as the type who will thrive in his old age with diminished velocity, so I’m far from writing him off as a pitcher, but I do believe you have to factor in the added risk. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

6) Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP, OF, 25.3 – Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the wrist, or maybe it was the lack of PED’s, but it’s undeniable that Tatis had some of his upside shaved off the top in 2023. His barrel% was down 10.3 percentage points to 11%, his exit velocity was down 2 MPH to 91.9 MPH, his hard hit% was down 6.3 percentage points to 49.3%, and his xwOBA was down .039 to .368. He also wore down as the season went along with a .871 OPS in the 1st half versus a .665 OPS in the 2nd half. But take a look at all of those numbers. Even with him being considerably worse than his prime, he was still an elite fantasy player with 25 homers and 29 steals in 141 games. He missed all of 2022, he had to rehab both his shoulder and wrist surgeries over the off-season, and he also had to deal with so much controversy, whether it was self inflicted or not. He’ll actually be able to have a normal off-season going into 2024, and he’s still only 25 years old, which makes me think what he did in 2023 is his floor. And considering he also got unlucky (.332 wOBA vs. .368 xwOBA which is in the top 10% of the league), his floor is probably even higher than that. The decline in production takes him out of the conversation to be the #1 dynasty player overall, but this is still an easy Top 10 dynasty asset at the very least. 2024 Projection: 98/33/96/.274/.348/.515/31

7) Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – This is a contract year for Soto, and Scott Boras is his agent. He hasn’t really had that crazy career year yet. 2020 looked like it could have been that year with 13 homers and 202 wRC+ in 49 games, but it was a shortened season. What I’m trying to say is, the Baseball Gods owe him one, and his move from one of the very worst ballparks for lefty homers to one of the very best only adds fuel to that fire (I’m expecting him to start pulling the ball just a bit more). He doesn’t run enough with only 12 steals to truly be considered in the same tier as the guys ranked above him, but in any league that devalues speed, he is right there with them. He’s an OBP God with an 18.6% BB% and .410 OBP. It’s his 4th year in a row with more walks than strikeouts. His 6.7 degree launch is low, but he’s launch proof with a 98.7 MPH FB/LD EV that is 4th best in all of baseball. It led to a career high 35 homers. Everything seems to be setting up for Soto to have one of those silly statistical seasons that won’t even look real, and then he will land one of those silly contract numbers that won’t even look real. 2024 Projection: 115/38/115/.287/.422/.546/13

8) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 27.2 – Just call him the quiet killer because no elite player gets less hype than Kyle Tucker. He was one homer shy of going 30/30, and he did it while putting up career bests in both K% (13.6%) and BB% (11.9%). He has well below average speed with a bottom 33% sprint speed, but he once again proved stolen bases are not just about pure speed, there is a major skill component to it as well. Maybe it’s fitting he has the shortest blurb out of his elite dynasty brethren, because he’ll just continue to quietly kill your fantasy competition. No fanfare necessary. 2024 Projection: 99/30/115/.285/.365/.520/28

9) Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 22.3 – Call me crazy, but I’m actually encouraged by Elly’s 33.7% K%, 29.7% whiff%, and .235 BA in his age 21 year old season in the major leagues. In last year’s Top 1,000 Rankings, I projected Elly’s 2023 triple slash would be .232/.294/.433, and it ended up being .235/.300/.410. Not bad if I don’t say so myself, but point being, this is exactly what you should have expected. He also had a 26.9%/14.0% K%/BB% in 38 games at Triple-A, which proves he is capable of making real improvements to his plate approach over time (30.9%/7.7% K%/BB% at Double-A in 2022). And his hit tool only needs to get to below average to be an absolute fantasy monster. The power is elite with a 91.2 MPH EV and 119.2 Max EV which was the 3rd highest mark in the league. It came with a 3.6 degree launch, but he has the type of power that is launch proof (13 homers in 98 games), and he’s never had any major groundball issues in the minors, so that number is only coming up. He also has elite speed with 35 steals and a 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed which was tied for the fastest man in baseball with Bobby Witt. I always say, “if you can’t take risks in fantasy, where can you take risks,” and I’m not even sure Elly is as risky as people think. I’m all in. 2024 Projection: 91/25/85/.244/.317/.452/52 Prime Projection: 103/33/109/.261/.337/.506/65

10) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 26.9 – The only two categories Yordan isn’t a beast in are games played and steals. He dealt with left hand soreness in March that delayed the start of his spring training, he missed about a week in April with a neck injury, and he missed almost 2 months in June and July with an oblique injury. It limited him to just 114 games. The surgeries he’s gotten on both of his knees are also still fresh in everyone’s mind, but the fact that none of his issues had to do with his knees is encouraging to me. He played in 135 games in 2022 and 144 games in 2021. I think it’s one year too early to really slap him with the injury prone tag. And he’s too elite to be too risk averse with a career .978 OPS and a .440 xwOBA in 2023, which was the 3rd best mark in the league behind only Judge and Acuna. I’m not getting too hung up on the injury risk quite yet. 2024 Projection: 94/37/111/.296/.403/.589/1

11) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 26.8 – While many were jumping ship after a down and injured 2022, I kept the faith by ranking Robert 30th overall, and he responded with the type of year we all knew he was capable of, slashing .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers, 20 steals, and a 28.9%/5.0% K%/BB% in 145 games. He laughed in the face of chase rate (40.5%) and chased his way to a career best 15.4% barrel%. His speed bounced back with a top 16% sprint speed, and he played in a career high 145 games. I wish I could say he is now completely out of the woods and we can trust him completely, but the injury black cloud always seems to be lurking. His season ended on September 24th with a sprained MCL in his knee which would have kept him out for up to a month if the season didn’t end a week later. He also dealt with hamstring, quad, calf, hip, and finger injuries throughout the season. Rostering Robert definitely feels like playing Press Your Luck, begging to avoid any whammies (no whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP). Robert is elite enough where you can’t live completely in fear of his next injury, but projecting him for a fully healthy season feels optimistic. 2024 Projection: 88/32/84/.268/.320/.528/19

12) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 31.11 – Judge’s 97.6 MPH EV is the highest average exit velocity in the history of Statcast. The only years Judge didn’t lead the league in average exit velocity was 2015 when he was in the minors, and 2020 during the shortened season. His .468 xwOBA not only led the league, and it wasn’t only a career high, it was the highest xwOBA amongst qualified hitters in history if you take out 2020 (Soto put up a .475 xwOBA that season in 49 games). And he did all of this while gutting it out in the 2nd half with a torn ligament in his big toe which knocked him out for almost 2 months in June and July. He isn’t expected to need surgery this off-season, which is a good sign, and he had a 1.066 OPS in September, so I’m inclined to not harp too much on the injury. 2024 Projection: 121/46/119/.283/.405/.594/9

13) Bryce Harper PHI, 1B, 31.6 – Harper was nice enough to leave zero doubt that his power will fully return to prime form in 2024 coming off Tommy John surgery. After hitting just 3 homers in first 58 games, he turned it around by launching 23 homers in his final 79 games, including the postseason. He returned way ahead of schedule anyway, so it’s not surprising he wasn’t fully healthy until the 2nd half. I would expect your typical elite Harper season in 2024, and he strikes me as the type of all time great that will be raking deep into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 107/35/100/.289/.400/.540/14

Shadow13) Shohei Ohtani LAD, DH only/Weekly Leagues, 29.9 – This is where I would rank Ohtani in weekly leagues or as a hitter only. 2024 Projection: 96/33/94/.277/.380/.538/18

14) Mookie Betts LAD, 2B/OF, 31.6 – Betts played 70 games at 2B in 2023 and it was announced he will be LA’s starting 2B moving forward. He immediately becomes the best 2B in baseball. He is in the midst of a later career power surge, which makes up for his declining speed. After hitting a career high 35 homers in 2022, he topped that in 2023 by jacking out 39 dingers. His 92.4 MPH EV and 20.6 degree launch were both career highs, and his 48.5% Hard Hit% was the 2nd best mark of his career. As I mentioned, his speed is declining with a bottom 47% of the league sprint speed, but he still used his wiles to nab 14 bags. He may not be in his physical prime anymore, but Betts proved in 2023 that he has plenty of years of elite production left in him. 2024 Projection: 120/34/91/.290/.381/.536/13

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 31.6 – Mookie Betts’ beastly season is a reminder that not every year can be a banger. It wasn’t Ramirez’ best season with only 24 homers in 156 games, but there is absolutely nothing in the underlying numbers that would be concerning in the slightest, and we know his power is fine after watching him drop Anderson on a single punch. He’s also not slowing down on the bases at all with 28 steals. Even in a down-ish year, he still finished 29th overall on the Razzball Player Rater. 2024 Projection: 94/31/101/.281/.360/.511/26

16) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 23.1 – Harris’ surface stats took a step back in his 2nd year in the bigs with a .808 OPS in 2023 vs. a .853 OPS in 2022, but his underlying numbers actually showed a player who was improving. His contact rates took a big step forward with a 18.7% K% (24.3% in 2022), his EV took a 1.4 MPH jump to 90.9 MPH, his launch increased by 3.1 degrees to 7.6, and his xwOBA increased by .020 to .355. He hit .293 with 18 homers and 20 steals in 138 games, and he was even better in his final 100 games with a .912 OPS. He still needs to improve his plate approach with a 4.6% BB%, but Harris cemented his status as a near elite dynasty asset in 2023. 2024 Projection: 91/23/82/.287/.333/.480/27

17) Trea Turner PHI, SS, 30.9 – I was pounding the table to buy low on Turner all season, but he came on too strong at the end of the year to get any discount on him this off-season. He slashed .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers, 9 steals and 16.9% K% in his final 47 games, and he’s currently destroying the playoffs with a 222 wRC+ in 11 games. He had a .656 OPS in his first 108 games. He also hasn’t lost even half a step with the 4th fastest sprint speed in the game. That buy low window slammed shut hard at the trade deadline. 2024 Projection: 105/25/83/.289/.340/.481/35

18) Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.1 – Baseball now uses minor leaguers like guinea pigs, testing out every hairbrained idea they have all willy nilly, and Chourio got caught in the crosshairs of it. The Southern League used a pre-tacked ball for the first half of the season, and Chourio put up a lowly .714 OPS in 71 games. When they went back to the regular ball, he immediately went gangbusters, slashing .324/.379/.538 with 11 homers, 21 steals, and a 13.4%/8.0% K%/BB% in 57 games. He closed out the season at Triple-A where he put up a 4.2%/8.3% K%/BB% in 6 games. He did all of this as a 19 year old. The power/speed combo is plus to double plus, and it sure looks like his contact rates are entering the elite range if you ignore what he did in the 1st half. Jackson Holliday seems to be the consensus #1 prospect in the game (and Wyatt Langford is the trendy #1 for fantasy), but if Chourio hit with the regular ball all season, I’m not so sure that would be the case. The main thing Holliday has over Chourio right now is plate approach, which makes him the safer prospect, but for fantasy, I gotta give the ever so slight edge to the power/speed combo. Milwaukee showed us they are all in by signing him to an 8 year, $82 million contract. It makes it much more likely that he will break camp with the team, and even if doesn’t, it won’t be long until he’s up for good. Chourio is my #1 fantasy prospect. 2024 Projection: 69/21/75/.258/.320/.469/25 Prime Projection: 101/32/104/.283/.353/.523/41

19) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday slots in at #2 for me. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

20) Wyatt Langford TEX, OF, 22.5 – I have Chourio, Holliday, and Langford in a tier of their own atop my Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings. The only reason Langford is 3rd is because Chourio/Holliday have a longer professional track record and more impressive age to level production. But his power, speed, hit tool, plate approach, and production can rival anyone’s. He was selected 4th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft on the back of elite production in the SEC, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 homers, 9 steals, and a 44/56 K/BB in 64 games. He clearly separated himself from Dylan Crews in his pro debut, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 homers, 12 steals, and a 17.0%/18.0% K%/BB% in 44 games, and he was equally as dominant in the upper minors as he was the lower minors. He’s the total package, and if you wanted to rank him 1st overall on prospects rankings, I wouldn’t argue with you. 2024 Projection: 81/26/77/.262/.338/.479/18 Prime Projection: 103/34/109/.277/.364/.535/24

21) Spencer Strider ATL, RHP, 25.5 – If Strider’s 3.86 ERA opens up even the smallest buy window, I would be all over it. He had a 3.04 xERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 2.86 SIERA. His 22 homers against weren’t bad at all, so you can’t even blame a homer problem. ERA is just about the least predictive stat there is. He got unlucky. Simple as that. His 36.8%% K% led the league by a large margin, and strikeouts are king in fantasy. Glasnow was 2nd at 33.4% and Skubal was 3rd at 32.9%. His control continued to improve with an above average 7.6% BB%, and he proved he can handle a full workload with 186.2 IP. He also led the league in wins with 20, and while that was partly due to good luck, Atlanta is a perennial winner, so he should continue to be among the league leaders there. He was the #1 fantasy pitcher in 2024, and considering his age and strikeout upside, he’s in a tier of his own as the easy #1 overall pitcher in dynasty. 2024 Projection: 16/3.18/1.04/266 in 182 IP

22) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 25.0 – Vlad got very unlucky in 2023. His .374 xwOBA (top 7% of the league) vs. .340 wOBA was the 8th largest differential in baseball, and this is the first year he’s ever underperformed his underlying numbers, so this isn’t a trend for him. He crushes the ball with a 92.1 MPH EV, he makes near elite contact with a 14.7% K%, and he raised his launch to a career high 10.5 degrees. With that type of profile, he simply can’t be held down for long. The only thing rattling around my head that gives me some pause is that the only season he really had a beastly year, 2021, was the year he played over half his home games at their spring training ballpark and Triple-A ballpark, both of which played like extreme hitter’s parks. If you take that year out of the equation, he’s really yet to display the ability to be a truly elite fantasy player, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), the underlying numbers don’t lie. He looks setup for a big 2024. 2024 Projection: 92/31/101/.286/.359/.507/6

23) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 27.5 – There is no fancy analysis needed for Devers. He rips the ball (93.1 MPH) with a swing geared for both power and average (12.4 degree launch). His plate approach has also slowly been improving with a career best 19.2%/9.5% K%/BB%. The guy is as safe and consistent as they come. 2024 Projection: 93/34/106/.280/.358/.513/5

24) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 27.0 – Riley is Devers’ righthanded brother from another mother. The plate approach might only be average-ish, but he rips the ball (92.3 MPH EV) with a swing geared for both power and average (13.5 degree launch). He’s averaging 36 homers with a .285 BA over his last 3 seasons. 2024 Projection: 97/36/102/.274/.347/.519/3

25) Freddie Freeman LAD, 1B, 34.7 – The only question with the 34 year old Freeman is how much longer can he keep it up. I’m ranking him this high because I’m betting on him being productive deep into his 30’s, but he was the 3rd overall fantasy player this year, so this ranking does actually include an age discount. He showed zero signs of decline in 2023 with a .409 xwOBA which was in the top 2% of the league. He’s never had an xwOBA that wasn’t in at least the top 4% of the league in the Statcast era. He’s possibly the most consistently great hitter of his generation. He also took advantage of the new rules with a career high by far 23 steals. Certainly in win now mode Freeman isn’t going anywhere, but even in a rebuild I wouldn’t feel that much pressure to move him. 2024 Projection: 120/30/101/.313/.396/.528/18

26) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 30.5 – Lindor put up the quietest 30/30 (actually 31/31) season of all time. He somehow found the fountain of youth with career best power numbers and a major speed bounce back. He notched career bests in EV (91.2 MPH), Barrel% (10.4%), and launch angle (19.2 degrees). His sprint speed hit a 5 year high of 28.2 ft/sec, and he took advantage of the new rules with a career high 31 steals. He managed to do all of this with a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery this off-season, but with how many guys rake right through torn UCL’S and barely miss any time after getting Tommy John surgery, I’m not even sure you need elbows at all to hit. 2024 Projection: 100/30/96/.258/.337/.475/26

27) Matt Olson ATL, 1B, 30.0 – Olson led the league in homers with 54. Schwarber’s 47 was a distant 2nd. His already double plus power leveled up to truly elite levels with a career high in Barrel% (16.4%), EV (93.7 MPH), Max EV (118.6 MPH), Hard Hit% (55.5%) and xwOBA (.394). His .283 BA was probably on the lucky side with a .263 xBA, but the days of being concerned about his hit tool are over with a 23.2%/14.% K%/BB%. 2023 strikes me as a career year, but Olson is one of the premier power hitters in baseball. 2024 Projection: 104/42/119/.267/.368/.549/1

28) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

29) Corey Seager TEX, SS, 29.11 – I ranked Seager 38th overall last off-season, starting his Top 1,000 blurb by writing, “Seager doesn’t get the respect he deserves in the fantasy world,” and I ended it by writing, “If he hits .300 next year with 35 homers it wouldn’t be surprising at all.” He blew past even my high expectations with a .327 BA and an over 40 homer pace if he didn’t miss time. If you include the postseason, he hit almost exactly 35 homers in 136 games (36 homers). He’s an elite hitter with a 93.3 MPH EV, 13 degree launch, .413 xwOBA, and 16.4%/9.1% K%/BB%. Nobody will be underrating him anymore, but the only snafu is that he underwent hernia surgery in late January, which puts the start of his season in question. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value too much, but he’s about to enter his 30’s, and injuries like this can start to take their toll. 2024 Projection: 89/32/98/.291/.369/.538/2

30) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 29.5 – Alonso’s .205 BABIP was dead last among qualified hitters. He has a career .259 BABIP and he had a .279 BABIP in 2022. Point being, his .217 BA is going to bounce back in a big way in 2024, especially considering he has no contact issues with a 22.9%/9.9% K%/BB%. What you’re buying is the elite power anyway, and it was in prime form with 46 homers (3rd most in the league). If that low BA opens up even a crack of buy low value, jump on it. 2024 Projection: 94/42/120/.253/.346/.516/4

31) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 27.3 – I kept the faith on Albies after his down year in 2022, ranking him 40th overall on the Top 1,000 Rankings, and closed out his blurb by writing, “The bottom line is that both the surface and underlying numbers look bad, but his youth and track record is strong enough to overlook it. I seriously doubt he’s all of a sudden not that good.” He rewarded my faith by having a major bounce back in 2023 with a career high 33 homers and career high 124 wRC+. The only thing that didn’t bounce back was his sprint speed which sat at a mediocre 27.5 ft/sec. It resulted in only 13 steals in a year where steals exploded, and while he’s been a very successful base stealer in his career, he was never the type to truly run a ton. 2024 Projection: 98/29/93/.268/.327/.485/15

32) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 26.1 – Bichette’s speed and launch angle are both headed in the wrong direction. He’s putting up old man sprint speeds at just 25 years old with a bottom 42% of the league mark. His sprint speed was in the top 17% of the league in 2019. He missed time with knee tendinitis in August, so maybe that played a role, but his sprint speed was also way down in 2022. It resulted in only 5 steals in 135 games. That seriously cuts down his upside because he’s not a monster home run hitter either with a career worst 6.2 degree launch that resulted in 20 homers. It’s not all bad news though as Bichette still hits the ball very hard with a 90.2 MPH EV and he still makes a ton of contact with a 19.1% K%. His .361 xwOBA was actually a career high. he had a .306 BA and he’s never had a BA under .290 in his 5 year career. BA guys are not my favorite to go after for fantasy, but I’m not willing to classify Bichette as “BA guy” quite yet. Development isn’t linear, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him faster with a higher launch in 2024, and even if he doesn’t improve in those areas, he’s still an impact fantasy hitter. 2024 Projection: 89/25/94/.296/.340/.483/12

33) Royce Lewis MIN, 3B, 24.9 – Royce goes in for ACL surgeries like he’s going in for a tune-up, because he always comes right back firing on all cylinders. He showed double plus power with 19 homers in 64 games (including the playoffs) on the back of a 95.1 MPH FB/LD EV, a 114 MPH Max EV (top 10% of the league), and a 16.2 degree launch. He still has above average to plus speed with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint despite the knee injuries (6 steals), and his plate approach, which was once a bit of a concern as a prospect, was about average with a 23%/8.4% K%/BB%. It all led to a 155 wRC+ in 58 games. When he’s on the field, he’s done nothing but destroy levels since 2022. I implored you to keep buying through the knee surgeries, writing in last years Top 1,000, “I named Lewis a player to target last off-season, imploring you to buy the dip coming off a torn ACL. Now it’s deja vu all over again with Lewis once again down with a torn ACL, and once again I’m imploring you to buy the dip.” … so hopefully you already have him on your team. If not for the added injury risk, which I think you have to at least consider, he might have ranked 15 spots higher. 2024 Projection: 77/29/88/.272/.339/.485/16

34) Jazz Chisholm MIA, OF, 26.2 – Jazz was on pace to go 30/30 if he played a full season (19/22 in 97 games). I know “if he played a full season” is the big question mark as he’s yet to play more than 124 games in his 3 year career, but we would have been talking about him as Top 10 dynasty asset if he played in 140+ games. Ranking him at “only” 33rd overall is the injury discount, and the discount is necessary because unfortunately the injury risk is real. A turf toe injury in May kept him out for 6 weeks which required surgery after the season. He’s expected to be fully healthy going into 2024, but a pretty major surgery during the off-season where he won’t be able to run for at least 3 months isn’t optimal. He also hit the IL for a month during the season with an oblique strain. He played in only 60 games in 2022 and needed surgery on his back and knee that year. The injuries are piling up, but he’ll only be 26 on opening day, and he still has his plus power/speed combo with a 90.4 MPH EV and 28.4 ft/sec sprint. The 30.8%/6.8% K%/BB% isn’t great, but his 27% chase% is slightly above average, and he has a career .245 BA in 1,193 PA, so I’m not too worried about the hit tool tanking. Jazz is one healthy season away from being talked about with the best in the fantasy game. 2024 Projection: 74/26/79/.247/.315/.462/28

35) Jordan Walker STL, OF, 21.10 – The vibe seems to be that Jordan Walker was a bust, or at least a disappointment, but in my book, his value took a jump in 2023. He was a 20/21 year old in the majors who put up a well above average 116 wRC+ in 117 games. He hit the ball hard with an 89.4 MPH EV, he had plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint, he had an average plate approach with a 22.4%/8.0% K%/BB%, and all the hand wringing over his launch angle early in the season proved to be unfounded with a solid 10.2 degree launch. We can’t expect every prospect to immediately put up MVP numbers when we demand they get called up as 19/20/21 year olds. Being an above average MLB hitter at Walker’s age is extremely, extremely impressive, and for me, it puts him right on track to become the beast we all thought he would be last off-season. 2024 Projection: 87/26/85/.271/.340/.469/15 Prime Projection: 98/31/102/.279/.356/.513/17

36) Junior Caminero TBR, 3B/SS, 20.9 – Caminero was a popular breakout pick this year (me included), and he more than lived up to the consensus hype by going full phenom beast mode. He made a mockery of High-A pitching with 11 homers and a 190 wRC+ in 36 games, and then he barely slowed down at Double-A with 20 homers and a 140 wRC+ in 81 games. He even improved his plate approach at Double-A with a 17.1%/9.1% K%/BB% (25.2%/6.3% at High-A). He completed the phenom cycle by jumping straight from Double-A to the majors as a 20 year old for a cup of coffee (he ordered the cold brew with a .631 OPS in 36 PA, but it obviously doesn’t mean much). His calling card is double plus power with a good feel to hit that reminds me of a righty version of Rafael Devers. And while he didn’t run a ton (5 for 10 on the bases), he put up a 28.6 ft/sec sprint speed in the majors, so he’ll certainly contribute in the category at the least. Tampa Bay is forever crowded, but a player like Caminero forces the issue. 2024 Projection: 47/17/54/.260/.323/.462/5 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.284/.349/.525/10

37) Eury Perez MIA, RHP, 21.0 – Perez is going to be one of the greatest pitchers we’ve ever seen. He’s 6’8”, 220 pounds with a 97.5 MPH fastball and 3 double plus to elite secondaries. The slider notched a 47.7% whiff% and .226 xwOBA, the curve notched a 54.3% whiff% and .216 xwOBA, and the changeup notched a 46.2% whiff% and .161 xwOBA. He was 20 years old in the majors and put up a pitching line of 3.15/1.13/108/31 in 91.1 IP. The 33.7% whiff% is elite. He’s never had control problems in his career and that will probably end up plus too. The only thing that could stop him is injuries, which unfortunately has to be factored in for all young flamethrowers who have yet to throw a full MLB workload (128 IP is his career high). 2024 Projection: 12/3.36/1.09/193 in 160 IP Prime Projection: 16/2.82/0.96/240 in 180 IP

38) Randy Arozarena TBR, OF, 29.1 – Arozarena couldn’t maintain his blistering start to the season with a much better 1st half (.855 OPS) than 2nd half (.700 OPS), but it all evened out to a typical Arozarena season. He put up a 126 wRC+ in 2023, a 124 wRC+ in 2022, and a 127 wRC+ in 2021. He went at least 20/20 in each season. The man is consistent. He hits the ball very hard (91.7 MPH EV), he put up a career best 11.3 degree launch, he doesn’t have strikeout issues (23.9% K%), he has plus speed (28.4 ft/sec sprint), and he gets on base with a career best 12.2% BB%. That’s a near elite fantasy asset. 2024 Projection: 92/22/84/.260/.355/.442/27

39) Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

40) Adolis Garcia TEX, OF, 31.1 – Everybody was scared off by the terrible plate approach, so Garcia went ahead and made massive improvements to it. His BB% rose 4.2 percentage points to a well above average 10.3% and his chase rate dropped 8 percentage points to a nearly average 29.3%. That’s remarkable, and it’s a reminder that a player’s plate approach tends to improve as they gain experience, hence why it’s often called a “mature” plate approach. The improved patience didn’t take away any of his power with 39 homers, a 92.1 MPH EV, and a 15.7 degree launch. The only quibble with his season is that his sprint speed dropped considerably to 27.3 ft/sec, and he stole only 9 bags in 10 attempts. With the speed decline and age, it’s hard to predict a major bounce back there, but the maturing at the dish more than makes up for it as he gets deeper into his 30’s. 2024 Projection: 94/35/103/.254/.330/.505/13

41) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 21.7 – The only question is how much power will Carter get to, because the plate approach and speed are impregnable at this point. He’s a line drive hitter who didn’t exactly smash the ball in the minors, although a 89/95.8 MPH AVG/FB EV in his 75 PA MLB debut shows he’s not some light hitting weakling. He’s also 6’4”, 190 pounds and only 21 years old, so more raw power is certainly coming. He hit 12 homers in 105 games at mostly Double-A (133 wRC+), then he set the baseball world on fire by hitting 5 homers in his first 23 games in the majors (180 wRC+), and finally he closed out the year with 1 homer in 17 playoff games (155 wRC+). That’s 18 homers in 145 games. If he can just get to about 25 homers in his prime, the man is going to be a terror. The speed is double plus with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed (31 steals overall), and the plate approach is elite. He had a 9% chase% in his MLB debut and he’s been an elite plate approach guy his entire career in the minors. He struggles vs. lefties, but just like with Gunnar Henderson last year, I wouldn’t let that scare you off an elite prospect. The downside is a .260 hitter with 15 homers and 25 steals, which isn’t that bad, and the upside is a .280/25/35 guy. 2024 Projection: 87/18/72/.263/.334/.429/26 Prime Projection: 105/24/80/.278/.367/.468/31

42) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.6 – Cruz was showing major plate approach gains, in an admittingly small sample, before a broken ankle from a home plate collision ended his season. He had a 20%/17.5% BB% K%/BB% in 9 games after putting up a 34.9%/7.8% K%/BB% in 2022. It was a very small sample, but it’s what I expected to happen as Cruz never showed that level of plate approach issues in the minors. Super tall players will always have some swing and miss in their game, but that is acceptable when the talent is huge, and Cruz most certainly has huge talent with an at least plus power/speed combo. If the injury creates any type of discount, I would be all over it. 2024 Projection: 78/27/83/.251/.333/.471/20

43) Jordan Lawlar ARI, SS, 21.8 – I would completely ignore what Lawlar did in his super small sample, 34 PA MLB debut. Don’t even look at his Statcast page, it will only get in your head. Your focus should be on the pitchers he laid waste to in the upper minors. He slashed .278/.378/.496 with 20 homers, 36 steals, and a 20.6%/11.4% K%/BB% in 105 games at Double-A and Triple-A. His contact rates took a big step forward from 2022 (25.1% K%), he has truly elite speed with a 30.1 ft/sec sprint speed, and he hit the ball fairly hard, especially for a 20 year old, with a 31.8% Hard Hit%. He’s 6’2”, 190 pounds with room to add more muscle, so the power is only going up from here. He has legitimate Top 10 dynasty asset potential. 2024 Projection: 69/14/55/.248/.317/.410/25 Prime Projection: 103/24/84/.273/.351/.470/38

44) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 33.7 – Cole’s strikeouts took a major step back in 2023, and that lasted throughout the entire season. His K% was down 5.4 percentage points to 27% and his whiff% was down 7.9% to 26%. The whiffs were down on all of his pitches. He still performed like a true ace with pitching line of 2.63/0.98/222/48 in 209 IP, and the stuff was still huge with a 96.7 MPH fastball, but his 3.48 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA all say he got lucky. With an elite stud like Cole who has a long track record, you don’t want to slice and dice the numbers too much, but he will be 33 next year, and everyone is human. Even if the strikeouts don’t bounce back, he’s as safe as an ace as there is (say that 10 times fast), but there are some indications he might be coming back to the pack a bit. 2024 Projection: 15/3.27/1.05/230 in 200 IP

45) Matt McLain CIN, 2B/SS, 24.8 – While we’re all drooling over AFL breakouts right now, here is a reminder that McLain tanked in the AFL in 2022 with a .190 BA and 31.2% K%, before becoming one of the biggest MLB breakouts in 2023. He slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers, 14 steals, and a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 89 games. He obliterated Triple-A too with a 184 wRC+ in 40 games. He has double plus speed with a 29 ft/sec sprint and he has above average power with a 89.3 MPH EV and 13.8 degree launch. His plate approach wasn’t great with a 28.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in the majors, but his chase rate was above average at 25.4%, and his 28% whiff% shows he isn’t going to have any major contact issues. He also had a 20.6%/16.7% K%/BB% in the minors. And the cherry on top is that he is a good defensive player, so he should be safe from the playing time crunch. McLain is the real deal. 2024 Projection: 87/26/83/.269/.343/.468/24

46) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

47) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 33.11 – Altuve was in prime form yet again with a 154 wRC+, .311 BA, 17 homers and 14 steals in 90 games. A broken thumb delayed the start of his season until mid May, and an oblique injury kept him out for most of July, but he was no worse for the wear when on the field. The only crack in the armor is a career low by far 26.9 ft/sec sprint (28.1 ft/sec in 2022). It didn’t stop him from running, but it is the first sign of a true physical decline. He’s been so dominant the last 2 years I almost want to ignore his age and speed decline, but how much longer can the 5’6” Altuve maintain his elite production? 2024 Projection: 101/28/73/.285/.371/.496/19

48) Corbin Burnes BAL, RHP, 29.5 – Burnes had one of the best disappointing seasons of all time. I guess that is what happens when expectations are through the roof. He put up a pitching line of 3.39/1.07/200/66 in 193.2 IP, but it still feels like he was a bust somehow. The 25.5% K% was 5 percentage points lower than 2022 and 11.2 percentage points lower than his peak. His 8.4% BB% was 2 percentage points higher than 2022 and 3.2 percentage points higher than his peak. His velocity was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, and his most used pitch, the cutter (55.4% usage), put up a career worst by far 22.7% whiff%. It sure seems like his days of being so far out in front of the pack are over, but this current iteration of him is still damn good. The trade to Baltimore doesn’t really impact his dynasty value is any meaningful way in either direction. 2024 Projection: 15/3.21/1.03/218 in 190 IP

49) CJ Abrams WAS, SS, 23.6 – It’s almost like they made the new rules and new ball specifically for Abrams. The juicier ball helped his below average power play up (87.4 MPH EV with 18 homers), the banned shift helped lefties the most (all lefties saw their BA increase from .239 in 2022 to .249 in 2023), and the bigger bases/pickoff rules sparked him to start running a ton again (7 steals in 2022 vs. 47 steals in 2023). It wasn’t only the new rules though, he also leveled up by increasing his barrel%, EV, launch, and BB%. Even with all of those gains, he was still a below average hitter with a 90 wRC+, and while he has the type of power/speed combo to thrive in fantasy while being a bad real life hitter, that profile has a way of catching up to you. Considering he’s still only 23 years old, and proved his ability to make meaningful improvements in 2023, I’m betting on him continuing to improve and becoming the fantasy beast we all expected when he was an elite prospect. 2024 Projection: 87/17/71/.267/.321/.430/42

50) Pablo Lopez MIN, RHP, 28.1 – Lopez’ 4-seamer exploded with a 1.4 MPH velocity bump to 94.9 MPH and it immediately turned into one of the best 4-seamers in the game with a 31.5% whiff%. His sweeper, changeup, and curve are all above average to plus pitches that miss bats. His control is plus with a 6% BB% and he induces weak contact with an 87.1 MPH EV against. He definitely broke out in 2023 with a 3.66 ERA and 29.2% K% in 194 IP, but he’s been a really, really good pitcher since 2020, so it’s more of him staying healthy and leveling up. He’s a complete ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.35/1.13/220 in 185 IP

51) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 24.3 – Casas has the potential to become one of the next great all around 1B mashers, and we saw what that could look like in the 2nd half of 2023. He slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers and a 23.4%/14.2% K%/BB% in his final 54 games. He smashes the ball with a 91.1/95.2 MPH AVG/FB EV, he lifts the ball with a 15.7 degree launch, he hit lefties well with a .817 OPS, he has no contact issues, and he’s an OBP beast. His .371 xwOBA was in the top 8% of the league, and that includes his slow start. He also hits in a great ballpark. The 1B position is starting to age a bit with Votto, Goldy, and Freeman all getting up there, and I think Casas has the upside to be in the next generation of greats to take their place. I don’t think he will get quite the respect he deserves this off-season. 2024 Projection: 93/32/94/.273/.375/.520/1

52) Manny Machado SDP, 3B, 31.9 – I’ve been all over Machado’s every other year voodoo thing that’s happening. Here is what I wrote in his 2023 Top 1,000 blurb, “I could do an extensive analysis of the underlying numbers, but I’m afraid there are larger forces at play here. Who am I to question the universe? Machado is due for one of his good but not standout seasons in 2023” … hah! I mean, he literally had one of his good but not standout seasons with a 114 wRC+ in 138 games. I don’t even want to waste my time going through all the numbers, we all know what’s going to happen. He’s due for a beastly 2024. 2024 Projection: 86/32/98/.274/.336/.490/8

53) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 32.8 – It was another injury plagued year for Trout with only 82 games played. Nobody can be surprised by that, can they? This year it was a hamate fracture in his wrist which required surgery and effectively ended his season on July 3rd. He’s averaged 79 games over his past 3 years. It’s not only the missed games, the injuries seem to be taking a toll on his performance as it looks like he’s entering a decline phase. The power still looks great with 18 homers and a 91.9 MPH EV, but the .263 BA and 28.7% K% were both career worsts, and a continuation of a decline from 2022. His 12.4% BB% is also much lower than his prime years. He’s still very fast with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s long since stopped running, it shows he hasn’t fallen off a cliff athletically. If he can stay on the field, he should still put up big power numbers at the least, but he simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field. 2024 Projection: 88/35/86/.273/.371/.538/4

54) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 26.2 – Kirby’s 2.5% BB% didn’t only lead all qualified starters, it led all pitchers with more than 24 IP. Elite control isn’t high enough praise. He has generational control. And he uses that generational control to dominate with a fastball heavy profile led by a 96.1 MPH double plus 4-seamer. Neither of his breaking balls generate many whiffs, but his slider induces weak contact, and he’s incorporating a splitter more which killed it with a .202 xwOBA and 35.7% whiff%. He didn’t start throwing the splitter until the 2nd half, and his strikeout totals immediately ticked up. He was great in 2023 with a pitching line of 3.35/1.04/172/19 in 190.2 IP, and I think he’s going to take another step forward in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.31/1.02/183 in 185 IP

55) Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD, RHP, 25.7 – The Dodgers made Yamamoto the highest paid pitcher in history with a 12 year, $325 million contract (plus a $50 million posting fee). That is really all you need to know. He’s expected to be a true ace right from the get go, and signing with the best developmental team in the game also takes a lot of the risk out of his transition to a new ball, new country, new league etc … He’s been a true ace in Japan for years now, and that continued this year with a pitching line of 1.16/0.86/176/28 in 171 IP. He pitched 193 innings in both 2021 and 2022, so there also isn’t any concern of how many innings he can pitch. The fastball sits mid 90’s and regularly hits the upper 90’s. A nasty splitter is his most used secondary, and he also throws a very good curve, 2-seamer, and cutter. He has elite command over all of his pitches, and he has an unique, oddly athletic delivery which he varies constantly to mess with hitters timing. He’s a straight up nightmare to face, and looks like a ready made ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.42/1.11/195 in 180 IP

56) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 33.10 – Not only isn’t the 33 year old Wheeler slowing down, he’s reaching new levels with a career best 28.6% whiff% and 5% BB%. The stuff is in peak form too with his 95.8 MPH fastball notching a career best .260 xwOBA and 31.4% whiff%. He even added a new pitch to his arsenal, the sweeper, and it was immediately a plus pitch with a .264 xwOBA and 39.2% whiff%. Who says you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? 2024 Projection: 14/3.28/1.06/208 in 190 IP

57) Luis Castillo SEA, RHP, 31.4 – Castillo’s 96.3 MPH 4-seam fastball was the third most valuable 4-seamer in the game (Cole and Gallen ranked 1st and 2nd), and his 33% whiff% on the pitch led all qualified starters. It led to another ace level season with a pitching line of 3.34/1.10/27.3%/7% in 197 IP. He’s a consistent, safe ace. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.14/210 in 188 IP

58) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 28.8 – Gallen’s control has improved almost every season to the point he is nearly an elite control guy with a 5.6% BB%. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it’s very good with 3 above average to plus pitches in his 93.6 MPH 4-seamer, curve (40.6% whiff%), and changeup (31.4% whiff%). He also mixes in a decent cutter and occasional slider. It was good for a pitching line of 3.47/1.12/220/47 in 210 IP. The stuff isn’t really on the level as some of the aces ranked above him, but he’s done nothing but produce in his career. 2024 Projection: 14/3.43/1.10/204 in 195 IP

59) Noelvi Marte CIN, 3B, 22.6 – Everyone called Marte fat and slow this off-season, so of course he put up double plus run times in the majors with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. Be super wary of scouting speed grades as they are wildly inaccurate (see also, Henry Davis and Nolan Jones). Not only is he a speedster, but he crushed the ball with a 91.3 MPH EV, and the hit tool looked good with a 20.3% K% and .296 xBA in 123 MLB PA. It all resulted in a slash line of .316/.366/.456 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 20.3%/6.5% K%/BB%. He showed those same skills in the upper minors with 11 homers, 18 steals, and a .279 BA in 92 games. He did all of this as a 21-year-old. He’s fast, he hits it hard, he gets the bat on the ball, he produced in the upper minors, he produced in the majors, and he was super young. Quite simply, this is an elite fantasy prospect, and I’m not sure he gets the respect he deserves. 2024 Projection: 77/19/73/.261/.322/.431/22 Prime Projection: 96/27/91/.276/.354/.491/25

60) Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.1 – Starting this blurb with anything other than the 73 wRC+ and 0 homers Crews put up in 85 PA at Double-A would be beating around the bush, and you know me, I don’t beat around the bush. The performance was bad enough to have Wyatt Langford clearly pass him for the top spot in first year players drafts (Wyatt’s dominance also had something to do with that), and it might have me considering going with the ready made ace in Yoshinobu Yamamoto over him too, but that is where it ends. 85 PA isn’t enough to sour me on the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Crews is built like a solid rock at 6’0”, 203 pounds, and he swings the bat so fast and powerfully it almost looks like he’s using an illegally light bat (he’s not, at least I don’t think he is ha). The ball explodes off it on contact. He obliterated the SEC from the second he stepped on campus as a freshman, and he kept on improving through his junior year, slashing .380/.498/.689 with 58 homers, 23 steals, and a 146/152 K/BB in 196 career games. He also destroyed the lower minors with a 192 wRC+ in 71 PA at Single-A. His floor feels like a 30+ homer bat without the best BA or tons of steals, but the ceiling is that of a truly elite dynasty player. 2024 Projection: 62/20/71/.257/.329/.473/12 Prime Projection: 94/32/103/.274/.361/.518/16

61) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

62) Freddy Peralta MIL, RHP, 27.10 – A shoulder injury in 2022 put some doubt into Peralta’s ace trajectory coming into 2023, but he proved that was merely a bump in the road. He put up career bests in fastball velocity (94.4 MPH), innings pitched (165.2 IP) and BB% (7.9%). He once again eclipsed a 30% K% at 30.9%. He was also at his best in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 92/11 K/BB in his final 62.2 IP. Peralta cemented his status as a young ace this year, but because his 3.86 ERA doesn’t look all that great, you might be able to buy him for non ace prices this off-season. 2024 Projection: 12/3.38/1.09/215 in 170 IP

63) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 26.2 – Rutschman has an advantage over other catchers on playing time alone. His 687 PA led all catchers by far (William Contreras was 2nd at 611). It helps his fantasy profile play up, because he’s a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter with an elite plate approach (14.7%/13.4% K%/BB%) as his most valuable skill. I don’t mean to be too disparaging with that statement, because he has the potential to be a near elite real life hitter with a .373 xwOBA (top 8% of the league). The power is only slightly above average right now with a 92.7 MPH FB/LD EV, 7.5% Barrel%, and 12.6 degree launch, but this was his first full season in the majors, so this is basically the baseline. 2024 Projection: 88/22/85/.286/.381/.458/3

64) Kevin Gausman TOR, RHP, 33.3 – Remember when people were worried about Gausman going from San Francisco to Toronto? (I named him a target that year) Remember when people questioned if he can be consistent with a splitter as his main secondary? Well, those memories are fading as Gausman has been the model of consistency. He put up a pitching line of 3.16/1.18/237/55 in 185 IP. His 31.1% K% was the 3rd best mark in the league among qualified starters. He’s one of the safest aces out there. 2024 Projection: 14/3.30/1.16/214 in 180 IP

65) Blake Snell FRA, LHP, 31.4 – In my first Mailbag Podcast Podcast back in April, I got asked about how concerned we should be with Blake Snell after his rough start to the season, and my response was that he is the type of pitcher to find his groove and rip off like 4 straight starts of double digit strikeouts, so I would hold on. Well, not only did he rip off 4 straight starts, he ripped off 23 straight starts with a 1.20 ERA and 186/72 K/BB in his final 135 IP. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 48/27 K/BB in the 45 IP before that. The problem is, just as easily as he can get red hot, he can also go ice cold with a 13.3% BB% that was a career worst and in the bottom 4% of the league. You are playing with fire with such bad control, which prevents Snell from entering the truly elite pitching tier, but with his extreme strikeout upside and career 3.20 ERA, it would be silly to drop him any further than the tier right under that. 2024 Projection: 13/3.27/1.20/218 in 170 IP

66) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 27.4 – Skubal went in for a flexor tendon “upgrade” in August 2022, and he came out one of the best pitchers in baseball when he returned in July. I’m not even going to call it a “surgery,” because me thinks there are more than a few pitchers out there who should elect to have it if you can expect these results. He put up a pitching line of 2.80/0.90/102/14 in 80.1 IP. His fastball jumped 1.7 MPH to 95.8 MPH and it became arguably the best 4-seamer in baseball with a league leading .225 xwOBA (250 pitch min). His changeup was elite too with a 50.6% whiff% that was 3rd best. The slider and sinker were also both above average pitches. His 32.9% K% trailed only Strider and Glasnow. And to top it all off, his control improved to elite levels with a 4.5% BB%. That is almost unheard of for control to actually improve directly coming off major arm surgery. He’ll have to prove he can keep up this level over a full season, but if he can, he’ll be in the conversation for the #1 fantasy starter next year. 2024 Projection: 13/3.36/1.05/190 in 155 IP

67) Nolan Jones COL, OF, 25.11 – You can’t leave the house these days without hearing Nolan Jones this and Nolan Jones that, but I was ringing the 5 alarm bell on Jones back in my June Targets Article, closing out the blurb by writing, “Jones has no joke near elite potential … I would go hard after him.” After that writeup he put up a 1.007 OPS with 11 homers and 14 steals in his final 57 games. He went 20/20 in just 107 games on the season. His speed was vastly underrated as a prospect with a well above average 28.4 ft/sec sprint (are scouts just making up speed grades for most prospects?), but they nailed his power grade with an at least plus 90.1/95.3 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also an OBP machine with a 12.5% BB%. The two downsides are that he’s always had high strikeout rates with a 29.7% K%, and he’s never had a high launch angle with a 9.8 degree launch. Coors Field and the low launch should help his BA from completely tanking, but he’s not going to repeat a .401 BABIP. Unfortunately, he played far too well to have much value left on the bone this off-season, but if you took my advice back in June, you already have him. 2024 Projection: 86/26/88/.255/.352/.486/23

68) Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 26.7 – I was super high on Luzardo last off-season, trusting the improved control he showed in the 2nd half of 2022, and that proved wise as his 7.4% BB% was actually above average this year. He also stayed healthy, putting up a pitching line of 3.58/1.21/208/55 in 178.2 IP. The stuff is filthy with a 96.7 MPH fastball, an elite slider that put up a 51.8% whiff% (only Snell and Strider can top that), and a solid changeup that misses bats (36.1% whiff%). He officially fulfilled his ace upside status. 2024 Projection: 13/3.49/1.15/202 in 175 IP

69) Kodai Senga NYM, RHP, 31.2 – Senga blew past all reasonable expectations in 2023. He put up a 2.98 ERA with a 29.1%/11.1% K%/BB% in 166.1 IP, and he was even better in the 2nd half with a 2.44 ERA and 29.8%9.1% K%/BB% in his final 84.2 IP. He did it on the back of an insane forkball that put up a 59.8% whiff% and .184 xwOBA. It was the highest whiff% on any pitch in all of baseball thrown at least 317 times (and if you lower the threshold all the way down to 54 pitches, it was the 4th highest mark). He throws gas with a 95.6 MPH fastball and has as diverse 6 pitch mix. Control is really the only thing that can tank him, and if you take into account he was adjusting to a new league and new ball in the 1st half of the season, his 2nd half 9.1% BB% really isn’t bad at all. It’s definitely possible he takes another step forward in year 2. 2024 Projection: 13/3.37/1.17/197 in 165 IP

70) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA and 24%/6.9% K%BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

71) Tyler Glasnow LAD, RHP, 30.7 – Glasnow is 30 years old and he just reached a career high 120 IP this season. An oblique injury was the culprit this year which delayed the start of his year until late May. When he’s on the mound, it’s crystal clear his fantasy upside is matched by very, very few. His 33.4% K% was bested by only Spencer Strider. The stuff is huge with a 96.4 MPH fastball, and the control is above average with a 7.6% BB%. If you want to look on the bright side, it wasn’t an arm injury which got him this year, and if you want to include the minors and the AFL, he threw 144.2 IP in 2014 and 140 IP in 2016. If you want to completely ignore the injury risk, I can see going 30 spots higher on him. The Dodgers doling out a 5 year, $136 million contract extension for him also gives added confidence that a smart organization is willing to bet on him staying healthy enough over the next 5 years to earn that contract. 2024 Projection: 12/3.48/1.11/190 in 145 IP

72) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 30.2 – Fried missed 3 months of the season with a forearm strain, but he looked completely healthy when he returned with his 4th straight year of ace production. He had a pitching line of 2.55/1.13/25.7%/5.8% in 77.2 IP. He induces weak contact with a 86.5 MPH EV against (top 9% of the league), he keeps the ball on the ground with a 4.8 degree launch, he has plus control, and he misses bats with a 27.2% whiff%. 2024 Projection: 14/3.18/1.10/175 in 175 IP

73) James Wood WAS, OF, 21.7 – The K% jumped to 33.7% in 87 games at Double-A, which is exactly what you are worried about with a player this tall (6’6”), but Wood is the type of unicorn athlete where you don’t want to let it scare you off him. He still cracked 18 homers with 10 steals and a 124 wRC+ at the level as a 20 year old. And that was coming off a 155 wRC+ in 42 games at the more age appropriate High-A. Despite his size and high strikeout rate, Wood has a relatively short and quick swing which gives hope he’ll be able to keep the strikeout rate in a range that allows his truly elite talent shine. Don’t expect a high BA, but expect him to kill it everywhere else. 2024 Projection: 45/17/51/.229/.308/.450/13 Prime Projection: 91/30/99/.253/.341/.508/18

74) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 41/9/29/.241/.310/.407/19 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

75) Lane Thomas WAS, OF, 28.7 – Part of me feels like Thomas is a trap. The plate approach isn’t great (5.3% BB%), the hit tool is mediocre (25.8% K%), he was on the lucky side last year (.334 xwOBA vs. .319 wOBA), and the launch isn’t very high (10.8 degrees). But the things he does do well are the things that can result in a fantasy stud. He hits the ball fairly hard (94.6 MPH FB/LD EV), he’s fast (29.3 ft/sec sprint), and he gets the bat on the ball (23% whiff%). If you do those three things well, good things are most certainly going to happen. So while I came into this blurb intending to call Thomas a sell high, the more I really looked into it and thought about his profile, the more I realized he is a buy. I’m in. 2024 Projection: 87/25/83/.257/.318/.465/18

76) Marcus Semien TEX, 2B 33.7 – Projecting stolen bases can be a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma. Semien stole 25 bases in 2022, and with the new rules in 2023 when everyone was running wild, he stole only 14 bags. He’s as fast and healthy as he’s ever been, but his career high before 2022 was 15, so maybe it should have been expected. He made up for modest steal totals with a career best 14.6% K% and .276 BA (2nd best mark in his career). He also continues to get the most out of his average raw power with a 19.1 degree launch and 49.4% Pull% (29 homers). 2024 Projection: 103/28/86/.266/.335/.474/15

77) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 26.11 – Gilbert is an elite control pitchers (4.7% BB%) with a big fastball (95.7 MPH) and improving secondaries. The whiff% was up 7.1 percentage points on his slider to a respectable 32.2%, 7.3 percentage points on his curveball to 30.6%, and his new splitter was at least plus when he went to it (14.8% usage) with a .185 xwOBA and 34.7% whiff%. Improving the secondaries was the last step to unleash his full potential, and while his 3.73 ERA and 24.5% K% in 190.2 IP doesn’t jump off the screen, it gives him the potential to level up even further in 2024. 2024 Projection: 14/3.54/1.12/193 in 187 IP

78) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Nola likely had the worst season of his career (other than his rookie season) taking into account both surface stats and underlying numbers. His 4.46 ERA was the 3rd worst mark of his career and his 3.77 xERA was the worst of his career. A 8.3% Barrel%, 89.3 MPH EV, and 32 homers against were all career worsts, and his 25.5% K% was a 7 year low. Nothing was so bad or so out of the realm of his career norms, and he’s been alternating great years with mediocre years for his entire career, so I don’t think this is the beginning of a true decline. The Phillies obviously agree as they just signed him for 7 years at $172 million. 2024 Projection: 12/3.61/1.12/205 in 190 IP

79) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 30.4 – It was a tale of 2nd halves for Framber as he had a 2.27 ERA with a 104/21 K/BB in his first 99 IP and 4.64 ERA with a 96/36 K/BB in his final 99 IP. He also got hit up in 12 playoff innings. The velocity was up on all of his pitches with a 95.3 MPH sinker (93.9 MPH in 2022), but it seems like it actually hurt him as his once insanely elite launch angle (negative 3.6 degrees in 2022) rose all the way to a positive 4.2 degrees. He missed a few more bats with a career high 26.7% whiff%, and his control was a bit better with a 7.1% BB%, but it didn’t make up for all extra flyballs, leading to a 3.46 ERA and 4.33 xERA. He’s a very, very good pitcher no matter how you slice it, but the extreme groundball rate was his best asset, and you might not be able to fully count on that anymore. 2024 Projection: 13/3.41/1.15/192 in 195 IP

80) Riley Greene DET, OF, 23.6 – Greene underwent Tommy John surgery on his non throwing elbow in late September, but since elbows seem to be optional for hitting anyway, he’s expected to be good to go for 2024. I still think you have to give some leeway for rust, especially in the 1st half, but long term, it shouldn’t be an issue. He was in the process of his first breakout before going down with the injury with an 11.3% Barrel%, 91.6/96.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, .363 xwOBA, and 28.1 ft/sec sprint speed. It led to .288 BA with 11 homers, and 7 steals in 99 games (a broken fibula kept him out for over a month in June). I said “first” breakout, because he has more levels in him if he can raise his 6.6 degree launch and improve on his 27.4%/8.4% K%/BB%, which I would bet on him being able to do as he gains experience. There is a chance Greene ends up a better real life hitter than fantasy, but he can potentially be such a good real life hitter that he’ll still be a fantasy beast. 2024 Projection: 86/20/77/.268/.335/.448/12 Prime Projection: 97/27/89/.282/.354/.476/15

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 20, 2023November 27, 2023 by Michael Halpern

Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Chicago Cubs 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

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Hitters

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF/1B, 28.9 – Bellinger massively improved his contact rates with a career best 15.6% K% (27.3% in 2022) and career best 20.1% whiff% (27.2% in 2022). It led to a major bounce back season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a 15.6%/7.2% K%/BB% in 130 games. It wasn’t only the improved contact rates, he should also thank MLB for the juicier balls as his lowly 91 MPH FB/LD EV with a 17.2 degree launch likely wouldn’t have gotten the job done in 2022 with the dead balls. His 20 steals were a career high (thank you new rules) and his .319 BABIP was a career high (thank you no shift). Was Bellinger on the rules committee this off-season? He was certainly on the lucky side with a .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA, but as long as the ball (see strategy section below) and rules stay the same, his contact/speed/lift profile should provide very nice fantasy numbers. 2024 Projection: 84/28/91/.268/.327/.470/17

Christopher Morel CHC, OF, 24.10 – I was hyping up Morel in these here Imaginary pages at this time last year, ranking him 189th on the 2023 Top 1,000, and while you are still probably unsure what to think of him one year later, you have to be relatively satisfied at what he provided your fantasy team considering his very reasonable cost. He jacked 26 homers with 6 steals and a .247 BA in 107 games. It was good for a 119 wRC+ and a full-season pace of about 35+ homers and 10 steals. He absolutely pummeled the ball with a 92.1/97.1 MPH AVG/FB EV, he has plus speed with a 28.6 ft/sec sprint (although he didn’t run as much as I thought he would), and he has average walk rates with a 8.4% BB%. But the reason we are still unsure of him, is because he didn’t improve enough on his two biggest weaknesses, contact and defense. He still had a cover your eyes 37% whiff% with a 31% K%, and he was a terrible defender with a negative 12.9 Fangraphs defensive value. Chicago announced they were going to try him at 1B this off-season, but at this point, DH is his most likely “position.” I still love the fantasy upside, and am encouraged that he managed a solid 22% K% to close out the season in September, but mostly because of the playing time concerns, I have to admit I’m not quite as high on him this off-season as I was last off-season. The moves Chicago makes this off-season could swing his playing time projections in either direction. 2024 Projection: 68/25/76/.241/.316/.478/10

Pitchers

Justin Steele CHC, LHP, 28.9 – Steele worries me a little. He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither pitch is really dominant. The fastball sits only 91.8 MPH and it put up a solid but unspectacular .326 xwOBA and 20.3% whiff%. The slider put up a pretty mediocre 31.1% whiff%, and while it induced weak contact with a 86.6 MPH EV against, I prefer my sliders to miss bats. His control took a monster step forward with a 5% BB%, but he’s never shown that level of control in the past, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see that regress a bit in 2024. His ERA was also much better in the 1st half (2.56) than the 2nd half (3.62). I say all of this just to add some caution, because not only do I still like him, I was actually lightly touting him last off-season, writing in his Top 1,000 blurb, “Steele’s the type you put a star next to their name as you start to fill out of the back half of your fantasy rotation.” He induces weak contact, he keeps the ball in the ballpark, he has about average whiff rates, and his control took a big step forward. He’s a good pitcher, just don’t be surprised if he ends up more above average than truly standout in 2024. 2024 Projection: 13/3.62/1.21/175 in 170 IP

Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – This section is usually reserved for non prospects, but because Wicks didn’t crack the Top 10 and he’s one of Chicago’s most interesting pitchers, I decided to break the rules and include him here. I’m a rebel that can’t be tamed. Wicks is the type of safety over upside prospect that is more valuable in deeper leagues, but it’s not like there are no skills to get excited about. He understands the art of pitching with a 6 pitch mix, he has a legitimate plus offering in his changeup, and he keeps the ball on the ground with 3 of his pitches generating negative launch angles (sinker, cutter, curve). He had a 3.55 ERA with a 26.5%/8.6% K%/BB% in 91.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A, and then he held his own in the majors with a 4.41 ERA (4.18 xERA) and 16.3%/7.5% K%/BB% in 34.2 IP. It’s likely #4 starter upside with only 92.1 MPH heat and average control, but he’s worth a spot in the back of your fantasy rotation even in shallower leagues. 2024 Projection: 9/4.22/1.31/136 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Adbert Alzolay CHC, Closer, 29.1 – Alzolay took over Chicago’s closer job in mid June and he never gave it back. He put up a 2.67 ERA with a 26.5%/5.1% K%/BB% and 22 saves in 64 IP on the season. He leads with the plus slider which he threw 45.1% of the time and put up a 40.6% whiff% on the pitch. He backs that up with 3 different fastballs (95.3 MPH 4-seamer, 95.3 MPH sinker, 91.1 MPH cutter). He got shut down for 3 weeks in September with a forearm injury, but he returned for one outing on September 29th and his velocity was fine, so I wouldn’t be concerned. The modest strikeout rate has him sitting in the 3rd tier of closers (there are so many stud closers), but his elite control should mitigate that with a strong WHIP, and there is potentially more K’s in the tank. 2024 Projection: 3/3.36/1.09/71/30 saves in 65 IP

Chicago Cubs Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC, OF, 22.0 – I’ve been all in on Pete Crow since before he was drafted, and he finally fulfilled his elite prospect destiny in 2023. The power took yet another step forward with him jacking 20 homers in 107 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s not an EV masher, but he doesn’t hit the ball weakly either, and his high launch will ensure he gets the most out of his still growing raw power. The CF defense and speed are elite with a 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 37 steals. There is bit more swing and miss than optimal with a 26% K%, but he’s always generally had a good feel to hit, and he’s never had low BA’s in the minors, so I’m not overly concerned about it. Armstrong has 20/40 written all over him. 2024 Projection: 49/11/36/.241/.310/.407/23 Prime Projection: 91/22/76/.257/.334/.439/34

2) Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.5 – Selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Shaw is only 5’11”, but he’s a thick dude who has real power, and he combines that with above average speed and excellent base stealing skills. He has that little man leg kick (which Chicago toned down a hair in pro ball) that I absolutely love in the mold of a Alex Bregman, Spencer Steer, and Zach Neto. It seems to be working for these slightly undersized guys, and it’s certainly working for Shaw. He smashed 24 homers with 18 steals and a 1.142 OPS in 62 Big Ten games. He also impressed in the wood bat Cape Cod League with 5 homers, 21 steals, and a 1.006 OPS in 36 games. He then ran through pro ball like it was nothing, finishing the year at Double-A slashing .292/.329/.523 with 3 homers, 6 steals, and a 17.1%/4.3% K%/BB% in 15 games at the level. Shaw was my top draft target pre-draft (I actually pointed out Shaw as my top target back in February before the season even started), but now that he absolutely blew up in pro ball, there is no chance you get a great value on him. He’s worth his very high draft price though. 2024 Projection: 36/10/43/.253/.312/.432/11 Prime Projection: 85/25/89/.271/.337/.469/21

3) Cade Horton CHC, RHP, 22.7 – Horton was a star quarterback in high school, and his pithing delivery very much looks like he’s throwing a football with a short arm action thrown from around his ear. That type of arm action tends to produce good spin rates, and Horton can mostly certainly spin a potentially double slider that falls completely off the table. The plus fastball has good movement too and sits mid 90’s. He also mixes in a changeup and curveball that have above average potential. He used that plus stuff to obliterate pro ball in his debut with a 2.65 ERA and 33.5%/7.7% K%/BB% in 88.1 IP split between 3 levels (A, A+, AA). The K/BB numbers dropped a bit when he got to Double-A with a 28.4%/10.1% K%/BB% in 27 IP, but he still crushed the level with a 1.33 ERA. He only averaged around 4 inning outings and Chicago was very careful with him in general as this was truly his first fully healthy season coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021. He still has to prove he can handle a full MLB starter’s workload while maintaining his stuff and staying healthy, but he’s on the right track to doing that. I would put high end #2 starter upside on him. 2024 Projection: 2/3.95/1.31/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.17/178 in 160 IP

4) Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – If you want to invest in one of those unicorn baseball talents in the mold of a Elly De La Cruz and James Wood, but don’t want to pay unicorn prices, Alcantara is the guy for you. He’s an elite athlete at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and blink of an eye bat speed. He scuffled to start the season with a .604 OPS in his first 35 games, but he was en fuego after that, slashing .329/.401/.549 with 11 homers, 5 steals, and a 23.9%/10.7% K%/BB% in his final 71 games at mostly High-A. He closed out the regular season at Double-A where he put up a 130 wRC+ in 5 games, and then went to the AFL where he put up a .865 OPS in 21 games. The hit tool and plate approach still need continued refinement, but prospect rankers seem far too hesitant on shooting such a uniquely talented player up rankings. He should be in unanimous near elite prospect range, and he mostly sits in good but not great prospect range. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/26/85/.257/.333/.467/16

5) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 21.9 – Chicago continued to be aggressive with Caissie’s assignments, sending the 20 year old to Double-A, which usually tells you what an organization thinks about a player. They love Caissie, and he rewarded their love with a monster season. He stared the Southern League pre-tacked ball in the eye and didn’t blink with a 144 wRC+, .918 OPS, and 22 homers in 120 games. Well, maybe he blinked, as the 33.9% K% in the 1st half was much higher than his 27.7% K% in the 2nd half. It got all the way down to 21.7% in his final 21 games, and considering how young he was for the level, I wouldn’t be extra concerned about his hit tool any more than your average high walk rate (14.4% K%), low BA slugger. The raw power is monstrous and he’s a relatively good athlete too. He’s one of the premier power hitting prospects in baseball. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 82/31/92/.248/.339/.492/5

6) Ben Brown CHC, RHP, 24.7 – If you can buy low on Brown’s 5.33 ERA and 15.8% BB% in 72.2 IP at Triple-A I would be all over it. He had a 7.8% BB% in 20 IP at Double-A to start the year, and he had a 9.5% BB% at Double-A last year, so the Triple-A automated strike zone made his merely below average control look cartoonishly bad. He has legitimate top of the rotation stuff with 3 potentially plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curveball, slider) and all of them can look pretty damn similar until they get about halfway to the plate. He’s a nightmare to face at 6’6”, 210 pounds and it resulted in a 32.6% K% on the season in 92.2 IP. He missed all of August with a lat injury, and he pitched out of the bullpen when he returned in September, which does hint at some bullpen risk, but I’m looking at Chicago’s rotation, and they would be silly to not give this stud every chance to stick in the rotation. I really, really like Brown. 2024 Projection: 4/4.18/1.35/83 in 80 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.82/1.27/175 in 150 IP

7) Moises Ballesteros CHC, C, 20.4 – Here is what I wrote about Bellesteros, in part, on my 2023 Top 1,000, “Most of the 2022 catcher breakouts are getting the full hype treatment, but Ballesteros is just chillin in corner waiting to get his fair due … The other catcher breakouts overshadowing Ballesteros’ impressive season creates a buying opportunity, making him one of my top prospect catcher targets for 2023.” … I would call Ballesteros’ great 2023 season a breakout, but he already broke out in 2022, so all the hype on him this year is just other people starting to notice. He destroyed the age appropriate Single-A with a 142 wRC+ and then went to High-A and put up a 128 wRC+. He did it on the back of a plus plate approach (15.8%/12.8% K%/BB%) and above average power (14 homers). The profile might be a tad better for real life than fantasy, and he’s starting to get valued correctly, but I’m still in on Ballesteros at his fair value. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 69/22/73/.271/.342/.440/2

8) Alexander Canario CHC, OF, 23.11 – Canario returned from ankle and shoulder surgeries in mid June, and by the time he got back to Triple-A he looked mostly like himself, slashing .276/.342/.524 with 8 homers and a 28%/9.3% K%/BB% in 36 games. He swings the bat like it’s a bazooka with an extreme all or nothing approach, so he’ll easily pop 30+ homers if the hit tool doesn’t completely tank him, and it took him only 17 PA to hit his first major league grand slam. The part that didn’t come back was his speed with only 2 steals and 25.8 ft/sec sprint speed in his MLB debut, albeit in such a small sample I wouldn’t give it too much weight, and he was also just coming back from two major surgeries. He’ll have to earn his playing time every step of the way, and the hit tool is in the major danger zone, but his explosive power is worth taking a shot on. 2024 Projection: 22/8/29/.221/.292/.423/2 Prime Projection: 66/28/79/.237/.312/.466/7

9) Jackson Ferris CHC, LHP, 20.3 – Ferris is a big, slinging lefty at 6’4”, 195 pound lefty with a plus mid 90’s fastball that absolutely explodes out of his hand. He combines the heat with a two potentially plus breakers (slider, curve), and a lesser used, developing changeup. He dominated Single-A hitters with a 3.38 ERA and 32.5% K% in 56 IP, and while he did it in mostly short outings, he was up to 5 IP a couple times towards the end of the season. Along with staying healthy and building up innings, the biggest issue will be his control. He had a 13.9% BB% and he doesn’t exactly have the most repeatable delivery. There is elite pitching prospect upside with control gains and continued refinement, but there is also bullpen risk. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.32/185 in 160 IP

10) Jefferson Rojas CHC, 2B/SS, 18.11 – If Triantos was a better defensive player, he would have likely taken this 10th spot, but having a player take up a roster spot on your fantasy team for a few years while they slowly work their way into more playing time can be a pain in the ass. And I’m not sure Triantos’ upside is worth the defensive risk. Enter Jefferson Rojas. Rojas was a barely 18 year old in full season ball and he more than held his own, slashing .268/.345/.404 with 7 homers, 13 steals, and a 19.9%/7.5% K%/BB% in 70 games at Single-A. His tools don’t necessarily jump out at you at 5’10”, but he’s the type to do everything pretty well on a baseball field (hit, power, speed, defense, arm). Taking into account his excellent age to level production (119 wRC+), you can probably tack on a tick more upside to project out a potentially above average across the board player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/21/76/.276/.338/.441/15

Just Missed

11) James Triantos CHC, 2B, 21.2

12) Jordan Wicks CHC, LHP, 24.7 – See above

13) Matt Mervis CHC, 1B, 26.0

14) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 24.5

15) Haydn McGeary CHC, 1B, 24.6

16) Michael Arias CHC, RHP, 22.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Jumping off from the Bellinger blurb, MLB changes the baseball every damn year, and I’m not even 100% sure they are truly in complete control of every change, as my understanding is that they manufacture new balls for every season. The juicier 2023 ball allowed mediocre exit velocity bats to come alive and be impact MLB hitters, but those type of hitters hold more risk coming into 2024 because we can’t be sure how the ball will play until we actually see it. The 2022 ball killed those guys. Big EV hitters are much more ball proof than low EV hitters. Everybody seemed to love the way the game was played in 2023, fans and baseball executives alike, so I don’t see why they would intentionally change the juiciness of the ball (I know they have experimented with tackier balls too, which is an entirely other discussion), but I’m not sure how it can’t be in the back of our minds while valuing players for next season.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 28, 2022December 9, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 43 FYPD RANKINGS (FULL TOP 100 COMING LATER IN THE OFF-SEASON)
-A TOP 150 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 68 C//TOP 95 1B
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Cleveland Guardians—Colorado Rockies—Detroit Tigers—Houston Astros—Kansas City Royals—Los Angeles Angels—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—New York Yankees (free)—Oakland Athletics—San Diego Padres—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Dustin May LAD, RHP, 25.7 – May returned from Tommy John surgery in late August, and while he wasn’t able to seamlessly pick up from his 2021 breakout, he showed the ingredients to get back there in 2023. He continued to throw the 97.2 MPH sinker much less in favor of his 98.1 MPH 4 seamer and secondaries (curve, cutter, change), which drove his 2021 breakout. The improved whiff% remained with a strong 29.7% whiff%, and he kept the ball on the ground as always with a 4.7 degree launch. Control is often the last thing to come back after returning from Tommy John, and that proved true for May as he had a career worst by a mile 11% BB%, which led to the poor 4.50 ERA in 30 IP. He’s had plus to elite control his entire career though, so I would be shocked if that didn’t bounce back in 2023. You have one last off-season to buy into May, because he’s headed for a monster 2023. He ranked 62nd overall on A Top 104 Sneak Peek of the 2023 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. 2023 Projection: 12/3.32/1.08/160 in 150 IP

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 28.11 – Gonsolin was one of my biggest, if not my biggest hit of 2022. I hyped him to death all off-season with him going for a sweetheart price, and he exploded with near ace numbers, putting up a pitching line of 2.14/0.86/119/35 in 130.1 IP. A forearm injury knocked him out for all of September, but he was able to return before the end of the season. He throws a 93.1 MPH fastball with 3 plus secondaries in his splitter, slider, and curve. It led to an above average 23.9%/7.0% K%/BB%. His 3.12 xERA is likely more representative of his true talent level, but he now has a career 2.51 ERA over 4 seasons (272.2 IP). He’ll regress in 2023, but there’s no reason he won’t continue to be a damn good pitcher in one of the best organizations in the game. 2023 Projection: 13/3.42/1.12/148 in 155 IP

Hitters

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 25.4 – Lux seems to be afflicted with the curse of Starlin Castro. A once elite prospect who doesn’t bust, but becomes just another guy. He put up a measly 6 homers with 7 steals in 471 PA. His .276 BA was one of the few things he did well, but you can’t even truly count on that as his xBA was .247. The frustrating part it is that the skills that made him an elite prospect are still there. He has an above average plate approach (20.2%/10% K%/BB%) with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint) and some pop (93.3 MPH FB/LD EV). He’s been an average MLB hitter in his age 21-24 year old seasons with a .316 xwOBA (MLB average is .315). The problem is that it hasn’t translated to fantasy success, and unless he starts running a whole lot more out of nowhere (which is possible), going out of your way to acquire Lux would likely be factoring in too much of his former prospect hype. We have to value him as he is, not as we hoped he would be, which is a better real life hitter than fantasy who does still have some upside. 2023 Projection: 76/14/63/.268/.337/.413/14

Max Muncy LAD, 3B/2B, 32.7 – It’s pretty clear Muncy deserves a pass for his rough season. He came into the year with a torn UCL that was not fully healed, and it led to a .613 OPS in his first 83 games. It was obvious when he started to fell better though. By August and September he was back to his old tricks, slashing .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers and a 56/31 K/BB in his final 53 games. I have to imagine another full off-season away from the injury will only help further. He’s an easy buy for a win now team. Use the down year and advanced age to nab one of the premier power bats in the game for what is sure to be a very reasonable price. That goes doubly in OBP leagues. 2023 Projection: 89/32/88/.243/.361/.502/2

Cody Bellinger FRA, OF, 27.9 – Bellinger technically did bounce back, well, maybe not bounce back, but he bounced, from a .542 OPS in 2021 to a .654 OPS in 2022, which is obviously not what we were hoping for. He continued to hit the ball in the air a ton (20.3 degree launch) with a weak 92.3 MPH EV FB/LD EV, and it led to a .210 BA (.213 xBA). He put up 95+ MPH FB/LD EV’s in 2017-2019. His Max EV’s tell the same tale, with it going from 112.8 MPH in 2017 to 107.3 MPH in 2022. His loss of power is almost biblical, Samson style. There one day, gone the next. Even his formerly great plate approach has been shattered to pieces with a 27.3%/6.9% K%/BB%. The shoulder injury seems to be a pretty clear demarcation of when it really fell apart. Maybe the league was starting to figure him out a bit too. Either way, everything is trending in the wrong direction, and the Dodgers non tendering him this off-season really drives the point home on how far he’s fallen. 2023 Projection: 76/23/74/.227/.308/.421/15

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 30.6 – It’s clear that Betts is entering the back nine of his career, but a superstar talent like this has some tricks in their bag to slow that decline. He cranked a career high 35 homers in 142 games, and he did it by jumping on the first pitch 30.4% of the time, which is a career high by far (19.1% in 2021). The signs of decline could be seen with his sprint speed not bouncing back from an injury filled 2021, and he now has very slightly below average speed (49th percentile). His 14 steal attempts were a career low (other than the shortened 2020). His BA didn’t bounce back either, sitting at .269, and his xBA is saying it isn’t a fluke (.254 xBA). The adjustments Betts’ is making gives hope he can maintain elite, or near elite levels for a few more years, but it’s hard to completely ignore the red flags that have popped up here and there. 2023 Projection: 110/30/78/.277/.351/.527/14

Top 10 Los Angeles Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 23.4 – Vargas made his MLB debut in 2022 and while he only put up a .455 OPS in 50 PA, there is nothing I love more than seeing rookies hit the ball hard. He had a well above average 89.7/94.1 MPH AVG/FB EV. He’s also much faster than advertised with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed which in the top 6% of the league. He had no trouble lifting the ball with a 25.7 degree launch angle and has no swing and miss issues with an average 24.3% whiff%. His elite plate approach at Triple-A (14.6%/13.7% K%/BB%) shows better days are likely ahead there too. Speaking of Triple-A, he slashed .304/.304/.511 with 17 homers and 16 steals in 113 games. He’s currently the favorite to be LA’s starting 3B in 2023, and the numbers indicate this guy has star potential. 2023 Projection: 72/21/75/.258/.327/.445/11 Prime Projection: 93/27/87/.272/.345/.483/15

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 24.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with ace level stuff. He throws a fastball that sits in the upper 90’s, a filthy upper 80’s changeup that gets about 10 MPH separation from the fastball, and a plus slider (he mixes in a good curve too). His 4.25 ERA in 112.1 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A was surprisingly underwhelming considering the stuff. Part of it is because his fastball is relatively hittable, and while he doesn’t have major control problems, he’s no Greg Maddux. The delivery isn’t super athletic either. The other part of it is likely bad luck as his 30.5%/8.1% K%/BB% and 3.47 xFIP at Double-A looks much better than the 4.45 ERA he put up at the level. He has ace upside, and with the Dodgers’ pitching development prowess, mid-rotation might be his floor. Don’t be surprised if he wins that 5th rotation spot straight out of camp, and while the Dodgers could easily sign a vet, they have enough holes to fill on offense I think they might leave the spot open for a young gun. 2023 Projection: 8/3.85/1.26/122 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.48/1.18/202 in 180 IP

3) Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 24.6 – Stone put up a miniscule 1.48 ERA in 121.2 IP spread across 3 levels (A+, AA, AAA), and he thoroughly dominated each level equally with his 1.16 ERA in 23.1 IP at Triple-A being his best mark. It’s all about the elite changeup, which is extremely hard for batters to pick up and dives at the last second. He combines that with mid 90’s heat while mixing in a slider, cutter, and sinker. He’ll be right in the mix for that 5th starter job. 2023 Projection: 6/3.93/1.28/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.55/1.19/189 in 170 IP

4) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 21.7 – Cartaya is neck and neck with Francisco Alvarez for the most power from a prospect catcher, and at 6’3”, 219 pounds, he might surpass him at peak. He jacked 22 homers in 95 games split between Single-A and High-A. Just look at this whip quick swing from the big man. He looks the part of a major leaguer already. He’s an OBP machine with a 14.1% BB%, but the batting average is likely to remain low with some swing and miss issues (26.7% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/32/84/.245/.338/.508/1

5) Michael Busch LAD, 2B/OF, 25.5 – Busch is as easy as it comes to evaluate. He’s a lefty masher with high strikeout and walk rates. He crushed 32 homers with a 167/74 K/BB in 142 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s a poor defensive player, but LA knew that when they took him 31st overall in the 2019 Draft. If he hits, they’ll find a spot for him, and I think he’s gonna hit. 2023 Projection: 34/11/36/.237/.318/.441/2 Prime Projection: 87/28/87/.251/.343/.488/3

6) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 22.4 – Pages’ 102 wRC+ at Double-A doesn’t jump off the page, but he was only 21 year old at the advanced level, and his profile remains the same as a low BA, high OBP slugger. He cracked 26 homers with a 24.9%/10.9% K%/BB% in 132 games. The reason I have Busch ranked over him is that Busch has a launch angle conducive to power and BA, but Pages has an extreme 50.4% flyball percentage which led to a .236 BA. There is very real batting average risk especially if the balls remain dead. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/28/87/.241/.330/.479/6

7) Dalton Rushing LAD, C/1B, 22.1 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Rushing gets the biggest post draft bump after the destruction he left in his wake in pro ball. He slashed .404/.522/.740 with 8 homers and a 16.4%/16.4% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s not like this came out of nowhere either as he jacked 23 homers with a 1.156 OPS in 64 games in the ACC. Tack on the fact he got drafted by one of the best organizations in baseball who have recently developed 2 prospects with a very similar profile (Andy Pages and Michael Busch), and it makes Rushing a no brainer FYPD target. He’s not a lock to stick behind the plate, but the bat will play anywhere, and LA values versatility. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/26/81/.253/.337/.461/2

8) Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 17.10 – De Paula might be my favorite DSL breakout. He’s in a great organization, has athletic bloodlines (Stephon Marbury is his cousin), has great size (6’3”, 185), and great production (162 wRC+ with a 13.9%/14.3% K%/BB% in 53 DSL games). He made his first appearance on my in-season Top 300+ Monthly Prospects Rankings in July at 257th overall, and rose all the way to 139th overall on my Top 360 End of Season Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings over on Patreon. DSL prospects are as high risk as they come, but he has a legitimate chance to become one of the next big things. He’s started to get more hype this off-season, but he should still come at a great price in 99% of leagues. ETA: 2027 Prime Projection: 77/25/84/.271/.336/.473/12

9) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 25.7 – If Pepiot cracks the Dodgers rotation, this will look too low, because anybody in the Dodgers rotation is good enough for my fantasy rotation, but this is my bet that Miller and Stone will pass him on the depth chart. Not to mention Nastrini, Sheehan, and Frasso who all might be better than Pepiot too. He’s had control problems throughout his career and it hit a crescendo in his MLB debut with a 16.9% BB% in 36.1 IP. All 3 of his pitches get whiffs (fastball, change, slider), but none put up over a 30% whiff%. The fall off the table changeup is the money maker with a .227 xwOBA, which he combines with a 93.9 MPH that he threw 56.2% of the time and an average slider. LA’s depth, his control issues, and his limited repertoire has me leaning towards him being used out of the bullpen. 2023 Projection: 5/3.92/1.32/81 in 75 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.29/168 in 160 IP (if he sticks with Dodgers, in another org, I would go 4+ ERA)

10) James Outman LAD, OF, 25.10 – I’m a little scared by Outman’s big strikeout rates, but he has undeniable talent and there is a non zero chance he works his way into a large share of playing time in 2023. The close to the majors upside is worth the shot at this point in the rankings. He’s 6’3”, 205 pounds with a powerful lefty swing that cracked 31 homers in 125 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s also a good athlete, nabbing 13 bags. The aforementioned K rate is the issue as it sat at 29% at Double-A and 25% at Triple-A, before spiking to 43.8% in his 16 PA MLB debut. If he didn’t smoke the ball with a 99.6 MPH EV (1.409 OPS) in 6 batted ball events, I might not have been as high on him, and while it’s a small sample, you can’t really fake your way into hitting the ball that hard. I fear he’ll top out as a bench bat, but I’ll grab him if the price is right. 2023 Projection: 42/14/46/.228/.309/.431/5 Prime Projection: 65/19/68/.239/.320/.447/7

Just Missed

11) Nick Nastrini LAD, RHP, 23.1

12) Emmet Sheehan LAD, RHP, 23.4

13) Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Odds are Bryce Harper is on a win now team in Dynasty, and with news he’s likely to be out for a few months into 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, I would go sniffing around to see if you can land him for any kind of a discount. Tommy John surgery is not nearly as big of a deal for hitters as it pitchers, and it’s very likely he returns to prime form. It also feels like the guy is 35 years old already because he’s been in the league since he was 19, but he’s still only 30 and should have several more years of elite production left. He’s in that true elite of the elite class of player that has a real chance of killing it deep into his 30’s. Harper would have been essentially untouchable before this injury, but now the window is open just a crack, and I would go after him regardless of where my team is in the contention cycle.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 25, 2022April 26, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/25/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/25/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED APRIL 2022 TOP 414 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 300 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS COMING NEXT WEEK
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS

Jesus Luzardo MIA, LHP, 24.6 – 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/4 K/BB vs. Atlanta. Why improve your control when you can just make your stuff even nastier? Luzardo’s BB% is still sitting at 11.5%, but the fastball is up to 97.1 MPH and his whiff% is up 10.1 percentage points to 39.5%. It’s a good life lesson. If you can’t improve your weaknesses, just make your strengths even stronger.

Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 28.3 – 6 for 9 with 3 homers in his last 3 games. He now has a 97.8 MPH EV and a 1.361 OPS on the season. I ranked Buxton 32nd overall on my off-season Top 1,000 because I thought the injury risk was deflating his league winning upside too much. I’ll take a quick victory lap for Buxton while he’s still healthy, and also because if Buxton took the victory lap, he’d probably pull a hammy and be out for the year.

Connor Joe COL, 1B/OF, 29.7 – Continues to put in Yeoman’s work, going 1 for 4 with a double and a 0/1 K/BB. Joe has just been quietly performing like a near elite hitter with a career .370 xwOBA in 264 AB. He has a .406 xwOBA this year with a career best 17.3% whiff%, which backs up his excellent 18.6%/11.9% K%/BB%. He jumped all the way up to #183 on my Updated April 2022 Top 414 Dynasty Baseball Rankings over on Patreon. Don’t sleep on him. He looks like the next legit late career breakout.

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – I kept the faith on Bellinger, ranking him 63rd overall this off-season, and he has rewarded that faith, dropping two bombs yesterday to bring his season OPS up to .915. I would still be a tad cautious to consider him back to being elite because of a 33.3% K%, but it seems pretty safe to say he didn’t all of a sudden turn into a horrible ballplayer. It was just a rough couple years because of poor luck and injury.

Ty France SEA, 1B/2B, 27.9 – 3 for 5 with his 5th homer, and now has a 1.116 OPS on the year. He has a career best 10.5% K% and 89.6 MPH EV. Always gotta balance out all the back patting with one I got wrong, and while it’s not like I was super low on France, ranking him 163rd overall this off-season, I’ve been generally low on France his entire career. It was a mistake.

Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 21.7 – Carroll’s ascent to truly elite prospect status was basically a foregone conclusion, and he’s fulfilling that promise with his 3rd homer on an electric swing down in the zone. He has a 192 wRC+ with 5 steals in 13 games at Double-A. I don’t care if you are in win now mode, do not trade this man unless you are getting back a near elite hitter back in return.

Michael Harris ATL, OF, 21.1 – Absolutely destroyed his first homer of the year at Double-A. and while he hasn’t hit many homers in his career, watching that one shows the kind of potential he has. All of the skills have basically transferred to Double-A with a .317 BA and 6 steals. Unlocking more of his plus raw power is the last step.

Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 20.0 – St. Louis dropped the pitching thing and decided to have Winn focus solely on hitting. So far, so good as Winn unloaded for his first homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 210 in 10 games at High-A on the back of a 15.6%/11.1% K%/BB%. He has 4 steals with a 38.7% GB% and plus raw power. Now could be the time to buy in before his value explodes.

Zack Collins TOR, C, 27.2 – Collins is stealing Alejandro Kirk’s presumed breakout, going 2 for 5 with his 3rd homer. He now has a .960 OPS on the season with a 94.9 MPH EV. but a 32.4%/2.9% K%/BB% and long term playing time concerns still makes me hesitant to buy in.

Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 24.5 – Ripped a 425 foot walk off dinger off Jordan Romano for his 3rd of the year. He’s smashing the ball with a 90.6 MPH EV and has respectable contact rates with a 25.7% whiff%. He jumped to #158 on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Shane McClanahan TBR, LHP, 24.11 – 7 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 7/0 K/BB vs. Boston. Fastball sat 96.6 MPH and put up a 40% whiff% overall. His curve, slider, and changeup now have a 45.9%, 47.4%, and 57.1% whiff% on the season. He’s quickly cementing himself as an ace.

Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 24.2 – 5.2 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, and a 7/0 K/BB vs. St. Louis. All of his skills are translating to the MLB level with a strong 86.1 MPH EV against, 7 degree launch angle, and a 27.5%/7.2% K%/BB%. If you can buy low off the 5.52 ERA, I would do so.

Randal Grichuk COL, OF, 30.8 – Grichuk got off the schneid with his first homer on a 414 foot, 108.7 MPH bomb. He went 3 for 4 on the day which brings his BA up to .404 on the back of a 14.3% K%. The power has been lacking to this point with an 86.9 MPH EV and negative 2.1 degree launch angle, but those numbers are so out of character for his career that they will almost certainly regress closer to career averages.

Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 25.0 – 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and a homer. Riley is backing up the 2021 breakout with a 93.4 MPH EV and .452 xwOBA. Don’t trade him unless you are getting an elite piece back.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 23.0 – Cracked an opposite field grand slam for his 3rd of the year, and more importantly, didn’t strikeout once, which is the first game this season he hasn’t recorded a strikeout. He has a 21.4% Barrel% and 40.7% whiff% on the season.

Tylor Megill NYM, RHP, 26.8 – 6.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. Arizona. He hasn’t been able to fully maintain his early season velocity uptick, but settling in at 95+ MPH, which is where he’s at now would be perfect. His slider has been silly untouchable with a .135 xwOBA and 50% whiff%. I’m fully buying in, ranking him 97th overall on the Updated Dynasty Rankings.

Eric Lauer MIL, LHP, 26.10 – 6 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 13/1 K/BB. Lauer is going full breakout with his fastball up 1.2 MPH to 93.8 MPH. He has a 34.6% K% on the year, although with a 26.5% whiff%, he’s unlikely to be able to come close to keeping that up. He was a favorite of mine in his First Year Player Draft class, and of course I no longer own him anywhere. I do own Kyle Wright in a couple leagues, who I didn’t like in his draft year. Just the nature of the pitching prospect beast.

Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11/Elly De La Cruz CIN, SS/3B, 20.3 – It’s the strikeout and power hour of the dynasty rundown, as Gorman and Cruz both ripped another homer with 2 more K’s. That makes it 8 homers with a 32.3%/6.5% K%/BB% in 15 games at Triple-A for Gorman, and 3 homers with a 37.5%/6.3% K%/BB% in 12 games at High-A for Cruz. Gorman’s 2021 strikeout improvement has completely disappeared, and Cruz’ strikeout issues have gotten worse this year too.

Shea Langeliers OAK, C, 24.5 – Backing up his 2021 power breakout with his 5th homer in 15 games at Triple-A, and he’s doing it with a much improved 19% K%. He’s blocked by Sean Murphy, but there were rumors Murphy could be traded over the off-season, so he could be dealt before the deadline which would open up the full time job for Langeliers.

Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B, 20.9 – Noel tore apart High-A last year with 8 homers in 26 games, and he’s back at it this year after going deep twice yesterday for his 3rd and 4th of the year. More important than the power, he has an excellent 23.4%/14.9% K%/BB% in 12 games.

Marco Luciano SFG, SS, 20.6 – Bouncing back from last year’s horrible showing at High-A with his 3rd homer in 12 games to bring his season OPS up to .981. The plate approach isn’t great with a 24.5%/8.2% K%/BB%, but it’s much better than last year’s 37.2%/6.9% mark.

Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 20.4 – Martinez’ plate approach, or lack thereof, is getting exposed at Double-A with a 33.9%/1.8% K%/BB%, but nothing can stop his power as he jacked his 6th homer of the year yesterday.

Brady House WAS, SS, 18.10 – Housed his 2nd homer of the year to bring his season wRC+ up to 171 in 15 games at Single-A. The plate approach has been strong at 22.1%/9.1%, but the GB% is a bit high at 50%. Keep in mind this dude is still just 18 years old.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 23.6 – Smoked his first homer of the year, and when I say smoked, I really mean smoked. He’s struggled a bit to start the year with a 74 wRC+ and 31.1% K% at Triple-A, but all that really means is that Pittsburgh can continue to manipulate his service time without getting major blowback.

Andy Pages LAD, OF, 21.4/Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – LA’s power and patience duo got back to work yesterday at Double-A. Pages hit his 2nd homer, and it comes with an excellent 20.3%/13% K%/BB% in 15 games. Busch got ahold of his 7th homer, and his comes with a 23.9%/21.1% K%/BB% in 15 games. Finding playing time in LA’s stacked lineup could be their biggest issue.

Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 19.2 – Dominguez went 2 for 4 with his 1st homer of the year, but he needs to do a lot more than that to dig himself out of the hole he’s in. He has a 37.3%/1.7% K%/BB% with a 67 wRC+ in 13 games at Single-A. He doesn’t really have the young for the level excuse anymore. His stock is dropping hard.

Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.11/Roansy Contreras PIT, RHP, 22.5 – Meyer – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 7/2 K/BB. Contreras – 3.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 5/1 K/BB. Both are pushing hard for a rotation spot and could immediately be impact MLB starters when they do get the chance. I have them in a tier of elite pitching prospects with Daniel Espino and Jack Leiter.

Cade Cavalli WAS, RHP, 23.8 – 4 IP, 3 hits, 4 ER, 2/1 K/BB at Triple-A. I got slightly worried about Cavalli after MLB hitters ripped him apart in Spring, and he’s carried over those struggles into Triple-A with a 9.00 ERA and 12/4 K/BB in 12 IP. He also struggled hard at Triple-A last year. I’m far from panicking, but if I was in win now mode, I might be willing to use him as a centerpiece of a trade after he strings a few good starts together.

Moises Gomez STL, OF, 23.8 – 2 for 5 with his 9th homer. Gomez is ranked 2nd among all of the qualified minor league hitters with a 269 wRC+ at Double-A. He’s always had big power with low groundball rates, and it’s not like he is a completely out of nowhere prospect as he ranked 237th on my 2019 Top 472 Prospects Rankings. If he can keep his strikeouts in check (22.4% in 2022 vs. 38.2% in 2021), and considering St. Louis is an expert in developing these kind of hitters, he could really put himself back on the map.

Connor Scott PIT, OF, 22.6 – 2 for 3 with 2 steals. Ranked #407 on my 2022 Top 500 Prospects Rankings, Scott is off to a strong start at Double-A, slashing .400/.489/.600 with 1 homer, 3 steals, and a 17%/12.8% K%/BB% in 11 games. He’s a former 13th overall pick in the draft and has the athleticism to back that up at 6’3”, 200 pounds. He always had a solid plate approach throughout his MiLB career. He hasn’t had that wow year yet, but he’s just steadily climbing the ladder with a nice combo of safety and upside.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 19.2 – 1 for 3 with a steal. The plus plate approach is transferring to full season ball with a 12.3%/18.5% K%/BB%. It’s led to a 151 wRC+ in 14 games at Single-A. He also has 2 homers and 3 steals, but with a 56.8% GB% and 13 for 20 success rate on the bases in his career, not sure there is a big power/speed combo at the moment.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on April 11, 2022April 11, 2022 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/11/22)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (4/11/22):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON MORE OF THESE DYNASTY RUNDOWNS ALL SEASON, PLUS MONTHLY DYNASTY AND PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES

Heliot Ramos SFG, OF, 22.6 – Ramos made his MLB debut and immediately put up some grown man exit velocities on a 2 for 3 day. He ripped 2 singles at 107.4 MPH and 100.1 MPH. I don’t know if he can carve out a full time role or stick in the majors long term, but if he keeps hitting he’ll give them no choice but to play him.

Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 28.4 – The Francisco Lindor comeback tour is coming to a town near you as Lindor stole a bag and homered for his first of the year. He now has a 1.054 OPS in his first 4 games. I was about to crack a joke about the homer being against Erick Fedde, but Fedde actually pitched pretty well otherwise (5 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 5/2 K/BB).

Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 22.8 – Greene made his MLB debut and went 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/2 K/BB vs a very tough Atlanta lineup. His fastball averaged 99.7 MPH with a 32% whiff%, his slider put up a 45% whiff%, and he used his changeup as a legitimate third pitch with a 14% usage rate. This start only gets me more excited.

Wander Franco TBR, SS, 21.1 – Franco collected 3 more hits in 4 AB and is now 6 for 11 on the season, but more importantly, he snagged his first bag. He was already elite without projecting a ton of steals, so if he starts really running, hang on to your hats.

Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 24.0 – Vaughn is cooking with his 2nd dinger of the year and he tacked on a 98.6 MPH single. I think some people were forgetting about how good this guy is.

Maddux Bruns LAD, LHP, 19.10 – 2 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB at Single-A. LA took the high risk, high reward Bruns in the late 1st round with the thought they could fix his control problems, and while it’s only 2 innings, looking good so far. He has a mid 90’s fastball and looked like he was throwing both a big loopy curve and a harder slider. Everything was working. If you are in a league where you have to jump on guys really fast, this is a high upside prospect who could fly up lists if the control gains hold.

Bryan Ramos CHW, 3B/2B, 20.1 – Well lookie lookie here, Ramos did it again, this time with an absolute tank out to left center for his 2nd of the year at High-A. He was one of my players to target in my Hitter Targets Part 1 article in February on Patreon. Get in now if you still can.

Seiya Suzuki CHC, OF, 27.7 – I’ve done more than my fair share of patting myself on the back during week 1, but this is one I wish I could have back. I wasn’t low on Suzuki, but I wasn’t high either, and that is looking like a mistake in the early going. He got ahold of his first dinger, and it was no cheapie either, decimating it at 110.9 MPH. He has a 1.288 OPS on the year.

Rowdy Tellez MIL, 1B, 27.0 – Rowdy Rowdy Tellez is starting to bud that breakout that the underlying numbers easily predicted would happen. He drilled a 107.7 MPH, 424 foot homer for his first of the year. He has a 1.357 OPS in the early going.

Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 25.11 – 4 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 3/2 K/BB. His fastball sat 95.3 MPH, and while this would be a fine place to sit as a starter, there could be more in the tank as he rounds into mid season form. His secondaries lost some spin and MPH too, but they were relatively effective. Kopech didn’t wow, but considering his delayed start to spring and quick ramp up, this wasn’t too bad.

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – 2 IP, 6 hits, 6 ER, 0/2 K/BB. It was a total disaster for Urias with his velocity down 2.7 MPH to 91.4 MPH. All of his pitches got hit up, resulting in a 95.6 MPH EV against. Let’s hope his stuff comes back with time, but there is no getting around it, this was bad.

Art Warren CIN, Closer (for now), 29.1 – Warren nailed down his first save of the year with his 97.6 MPH fastball and plus slider. Lucas Sims should be back soon, and while I was targeting Sims all off-season, it could get hairy if Warren keeps pitching well. They very well might continue to ride the hot hand here.

Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 24.5 – Pena keeps rolling with a 3 for 5 day, highlighted by a 98.9 MPH double. He’s struck out a bit with 5 K’s in 16 AB, but seeing him hit the ball this hard is more encouraging.

Joshua Mears SDP, OF, 21.1 – Mears went 4 for 8 with 2 homers and 4 K’s in a doubleheader. Homers and strikeouts are Mears’ bread and butter. My bread and butter … are bread and butter.

Aeverson Arteaga SFG, SS, 19.1 – Arteaga has struggled in his full season debut with 8 K’s in 11 AB, but he got off the schneid yesterday with his first homer of the year. Considering the high strikeout rate from last year, all the K’s aren’t great.

Kahlil Watson MIA, SS, 18.11 – Make it two straight for Watson, and he completely obliterated this one for his 2nd of the year. He was then pulled from the game after 2 AB for slamming his bat on the ground after grounding out. How dare you show any emotion. If you don’t play the game like an emotionless robot, you sit. It’s 1950’s rules in baseball.

Ryne Nelson ARI, RHP, 24.2 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7/0 K/BB. The velocity is still way down at 91.9 MPH, but he continues to be effective in spite of that. Even with the great results, I’m not sure I can just ignore the stuff being down. I’m definitely getting a bit concerned.

Steven Kwan CLE, OF, 24.7 – 5 for 5 and is now 8 for 10 on the year with a 0/3 K/BB in the majors. He doesn’t have big power, and he’s not super fast either with a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed, so while I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy monster, the contact skills are most certainly translating to the majors.

Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 23.3 – Once, twice, three times a dinger as Haskin pulled the hat trick and went deep 3 times at Double-A. He’s now 7 for 12 on the year. After hitting only 5 homers in 83 games last year, the power surge is great to see.

Nolan Gorman STL, 3B/2B, 21.11 – Gorman came up one short of the hat trick at Triple-A, knocking two homers out, one vs. a lefty and one vs. a righty. He’s struck out 8 times in 17 AB, which has been a problem for him in the past, so hopefully that number comes down.

Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 19.10 – St. Louis pushed Walker to Double-A, and he’s responded by drilling his first homer of the year on a 109 MPH bullet. Almost more importantly, he has a 1/3 K/BB in 11 AB. Arrow continues to point way up.

Elehuris Montero COL, 1B/OF, 23.7 – Montero tore up Triple-A last year, and he’s back at it this year, crushing his 2nd homer in 22 AB. Can’t wait for Colorado to give him full time at bats when he’s 29 years old.

Robert Hassell SDP, OF, 20.7 – Hassell went the opposite way for his first homer of the year at High-A. He’s now 5 for 11 with 2 steals and a 2/2 K/BB. He can be a top 5 prospect by this time next year.

MJ Melendez KCR, C, 23.4/Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 24.5 – Both of these blocked power hitting catchers hit bombs. It was Langeliers’ 3rd and Melendez’ 1st. They’ll crack the majors at some point, but it might not be in a full time role.

Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 22.9 – 3 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB at Double-A. The fastball sat in the mid 90’s, his control was strong, and the secondaries were getting whiffs. He’s an exciting pitching prospect who doesn’t get the hype he deserves.

Ty Madden DET, RHP, 22.1 – Madden didn’t want to be outdone by his fellow 2021 1st round pitchers who had strong starts on Saturday, so he went out on Sunday and went 4 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB at High-A. His fastball reached 99 MPH. This year’s entire rookie class has been dominating on every level.

Alex Binelas BOS, 3B, 21.10 – Speaking of the 2021 rookie class, Binelas cracked a monster opposite field homer as he continued his assault on High-A pitching. He’s 5 for 11 with 2 steals and a 3/2 K/BB in 3 games. The power isn’t in question, so the plate approach is what to watch.

Jhailyn Ortiz PHI, OF, 23.5/Rece Hinds CIN, 3B, 21.7 – Two large humans did what large humans tend to do on a baseball field, and that is hit for power as both Ortiz and Hinds hit their first homer of the year. Ortiz’ homer came at Double-A, and Hinds’ came at High-A.

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – 2 for 3 with a 1/1 K/BB. We have a pulse.

Jo Adell LAA, OF, 23.0 – 0 for 9 with 7/0 K/BB on the season. No pulse.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR A TON MORE OF THESE DYNASTY RUNDOWNS ALL SEASON, PLUS MONTHLY DYNASTY AND PROSPECTS RANKINGS UPDATES

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 29, 2021December 26, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys and talk some team specific strategy for every team to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
–A Top 100 Sneak Peek of my 2022 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings with more early releases coming all off-season
-Dynasty Team Reports for every team (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)
–Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Top 56 Catchers dropped last week)
-End of Season 2021 Top 466 Dynasty Baseball Rankings
-End of Season 2021 Top 322 Dynasty Prospects Rankings

Hitters

Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 29.5 – I originally ranked Betts 14th overall on my Top 100 Sneak Peek of the Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings, but when I was on the clock at 18th overall in the Rotowire 20 team OBP Dynasty Mock Draft, I found myself concerned that his hip injury could be the catalyst for him to stop running as much in the 2nd act of his career. A bone spur in his right hip led to a down season in 122 games where his sprint speed tanked to 27.1 ft/s and he stole only 3 bases in 5 attempts in his final 58 games. I’m more confident in his bat being just fine, because even in a down year he was still damn good with 23 homers and a 131 wRC+ in 122 games. None of his underlying hitting numbers really dropped off from career norms at all. The fear that he will stop running as much even if he does regain his speed, like we see with Trout and Altuve, has me thinking he will drop a bit on my next Sneak Peek update. 2022 Projection: 111/30/80/.288/.369/.519/13

Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 26.9 – I’m blaming the off-season shoulder surgery. It’s gotta be. I know pitchers started exploiting him up in the zone more too, but there is no other reasonable explanation for how insanely he fell off. There is no guarantee his shoulder ever truly goes back to what it was, and he was inconsistent even before the injury, so I’m not buying back in at elite level prices, but I’m certainly willing to take him on at a buy low price. 2022 Projection: 86/28/89/.251/.338/.494/10

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Lux significantly improved his plate approach in 2021 with a career best 21.8% K% and 10.8% BB%, and he notched a career high 89.8 MPH EV. But it’s homers and steals that rule in dynasty, and he’s still lacking there. He hits the ball on the ground too much (47.2% GB%), and while he put up a career best 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, it’s still not great. He’s fast with a 29.1 ft/s sprint speed, but he’s only attempted 8 steals in his 144 game career. He did enough in 2021 to still be enticing in dynasty leagues, but not quite enough to get really excited. 2022 Projection: 76/18/68/.265/.340/.428/9

Starting Pitchers

Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 27.11 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Gonsolin to 55.2 IP. He has two nasty secondaries in his slider and splitter, which put up a 47.8% and 41.4% whiff%, respectively. I would love him more if he was able to maintain the 95.1 MPH fastball he had in 2020, but it dropped down to 93.8 MPH this year. The pitch plays much better at the higher velocity. He also lost his control with a career worst 14.2% BB%. All together he is an above average strikeout pitcher with a career pitching line of 2.85/1.09/148/56 in 142.1 IP. It looks like he has a rotation spot. I’m buying Gonsolin, and the price is very affordable right now. 2022 Projection: 9/3.86/1.27/151 in 140 IP

Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 25.8 – I’ve been beating the don’t forget about Urias drum for a few years now and have consistently been the high man on him. It keeps paying off. Urias went next level breakout in 2021 with a pitching line of 2.96/1.02/195/38 in 185.2 IP. He has plus control (5.1% BB%-Top 6% of the league) of a 3 pitch mix that consistently induces weak contact (86 MPH EV against-Top 6% of the league). 2022 Projection: 14/3.42/1.09/193 in 180 IP

Bullpen

Blake Treinen LAD, Closer (for now), 33.9 – Treinen is the epitome of the volatile reliever with ERA’s all over the map in his 8 year career. 2021 was a great one, and he made real changes which gives hope this one is actually sustainable. He heavily reduced the use of his sinker and went to his slider and cutter more than ever. It led to a strikeout resurgence with a 29.7% K%. His 83.3 MPH EV against lead the league (150 BBE cutoff), with Loaisiga coming in 2nd and Jansen placing 3rd. Speaking of Jansen, Treinen is currently in the closer role, but they could easily bring Jansen back, or acquire a different closer altogether, so going after Treinen in Saves leagues is a risk right now. 2022 Projection: 5/3.30/1.18/71/25 in 65 IP

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects

1) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 22.4 – Vargas is 6’3”, 205 pounds with potentially plus power that he naturally grew into more of this season. He doesn’t have to sell out to get to it, using the entire field and putting up excellent contact numbers. He slashed .319/.380/.526 with 23 homers, 11 steals, and a 16.4%/8.3% K%/BB% in 120 games at mostly Double-A. He’s not a burner but he’s been very successful on the bases in his minor league career (31 for 37 in 297 games), so at the least he won’t be a zero in that category. Vargas has started to get more love this off-season, but he’s still considerably underrated. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.278/.344/.492/7

2) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 23.0 – Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with good control over a premium, MLB ready 5 pitch mix. His 4 seamer consistently reaches the upper 90’s and his 2 seamer has that nasty tailing action. The slider is plus, the changeup is potentially plus, and his curve can be an effective pitch too. It led to a pitching line of 2.40/0.94/70/13 in 56.1 IP at mostly High-A. He missed 6 weeks with an undisclosed injury and he rarely went more than 4 IP. He also got mashed in the AFL (9.90 ERA), but he mentioned he was specifically working on his curveball, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. Miller still has to prove it over longer outings and for more than 56.1 innings, but he has legitimate ace upside. 2022 Projection: 1/4.21/1.33/22 in 20 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/195 in 170 IP

3) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 21.4 – Pages had the 8th highest flyball percentage in all of the minor leagues among qualified hitters with a 55.3% FB%. It led to 31 homers in 120 games at High-A. He walks a ton with a 14.3% BB% and he has reasonable contact rates too with a 24.5% K%. LA’s High-A ballpark is a pitcher’s park that reduces homers, so he was actually much better on the road (1.016 OPS) than he was at home (.846 OPS). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/32/89/.255/.345/.503/4

4) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 24.4 – Busch was unable to carry over his plus contact rates from college (26.1% K% in 107 games at Double-A), but he was able to carry over the power (20 homers) and walks (14.1% BB%). He’s your classic power, patience, and K’s slugger who would be helped if the NL adds a DH, because he’s not a great defensive player. 2022 Projection: Prime Projection: 84/25/84/.260/.347/.481/2

5) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 20.7 – Cartaya is a big man at 6’3”, 219 pounds, and he had no trouble getting to his at least plus raw power with 10 homers and a 39.2% GB% in just 31 games at Single-A (a passport issue and then a hamstring injury ended his season early). Here he is smoking a 97 MPH fastball for a dinger in June. His 27% K% was high, but he was still able to show a good feel to hit with a .298 BA, and he also had a high 13.1% BB%. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/26/77/.260/.336/.472/0

6) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 24.8 – If you’re going to trust just one minor league stat, K/BB rate is a great one to trust, and Knack is elite in that category with an 82/8 K/BB in 62.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A. He throws a mid 90’s fastball up in the zone with 3 secondaries that flash plus (slider, curve, change). He doesn’t go to the change that often and his slider is more consistent than his curve. I’m not necessarily seeing top of the rotation upside, but a low WHIP, high K mid-rotation starter plays up in fantasy. 2022 Projection: 1/4.40/1.30/15 in 15 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.90/1.21/175 in 165 IP

7) Eddys Leonard LAD, SS, 21.4 – Leonard isn’t physically imposing at 6’0”, 160 pounds (probably heavier than that now), but the ball definitely jumps off his bat. He whacked 22 homers in 107 games split between Single-A and High-A. His plate approach was solid with a 23.6%/10.4% K%/BB%, and he has some speed too with 9 steals. He isn’t likely to win you any one category, but he can be a damn good overall hitter. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/76/.265/.339/.446/7

8) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 18.5 – Diaz struggled in his first taste of pro ball with an 89 wRC+ and 27.7% K% in 24 games in the DSL. He was getting better as the season went along, and 24 games is a very small sample, so I wouldn’t panic based on the slow start to his career. He still has all the tools that made him a high priced international signing, but he obviously has a long way to go. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.267/.333/.450/12

9) Jorbit Vivas LAD, 2B/3B, 21.1 – Vivas’ power broke out in 2021 with 14 homers in 106 games, but 13 of those homers came at Single-A with Rancho Cucamonga, a known hitter’s paradise, as his home ballpark. He hit just one homer in 23 games at High-A. Regardless, his power definitely ticked up this year, and he combines that with elite contact rates (11.5% K%). He’s a lefty with extreme splits, so there is platoon risk. LA just added Vivas to their 40 man, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, so they definitely like him a lot. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/68/.278/.342/.423/6

10) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 24.7 – It’s all about that filthy, double plus changeup for Pepiot. It is one of, if not the best changeup in the minors. He combines that with a mid 90’s fastball and a much improved slider. His control has been an issue going back to college, and it hasn’t improved much with an 11.2% BB% at Double-A and 10.4% BB% at Triple-A. He destroyed Double-A in general (2.87 ERA in 59.2 IP), but he got destroyed in Triple-A (7.13 ERA in 41.2 IP). His control needs to improve to reach his mid rotation upside. 2022 Projection: 2/4.55/1.38/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.17/1.33/160 in 155 IP

Just Missed

11) Jose Ramos LAD, OF, 21.3

Strategy

LA is one of the best developmental organizations in the league, but they can also go out and sign big time free agents to fill any hole they have on the MLB level, so their prospects don’t get a very long leash (see, Gavin Lux). Many times they break in as depth pieces earlier in their career and have to earn more playing time later on. The same goes for their pitchers, as they love to mess with their rotation to give guys extra rest. It can be a nightmare when you are expecting a two start week in weekly lineup leagues. Overall, I don’t shy away from going after their prospects, but lack of playing time/innings is definitely something I factor in.

Previous Teams on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks–Baltimore Orioles-Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds–Colorado Rockies–Detroit Tigers–Houston Astros–Miami Marlins–Milwaukee Brewers–Minnesota Twins–New York Mets–New York Yankees–Oakland Athletics–Philadelphia Phillies–Pittsburgh Pirates–Seattle Mariners–San Francisco Giants–St. Louis Cardinals–Tampa Bay Rays–Texas Rangers–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on February 9, 2021March 3, 2021 by Michael Halpern

Top 1,000 2021 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Welcome to the 3rd annual Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings. 16-team, deep roster, 5×5 category league is what I had in my mind during the process. You can find links to a separate Top 473 Prospects Rankings and Top 100 First Year Player Draft Rankings below. Here is the Top 1,000 2021 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings:

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

Click here for the Top 473 2021 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Only Rankings
Click here for the Top 100 2020/21 Dynasty Baseball First Year Player Draft Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

*Prime Projections – These projections are meant to give you a general idea of what I think about a prospect’s future stat profile in a relatively good outcome scenario. I find this helpful as a quick reference to see how a prospect’s tools/skills translate to fantasy categories.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR UP TO DAILY WEEKDAY CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE SEASON, INCLUDING ARTICLES, PODCASTS, RANKINGS, AND OTHER COOL STUFF I THINK UP ALONG THE WAY

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 23.3 – I’m a glutton for homers and steals (and Chinese food), and Acuna ranks ahead of Soto in both departments. There is risk Acuna eventually turns into a 3 true outcome slugger as he whiffed at a career high 29.9% rate, pulled the ball a career high 43% of the time, launched the ball a career high 18.6 degrees, and swung at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone, which is why Juan Soto is the no doubt #1 overall pick in almost anything other than standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 124/42/98/.271/.384/.570/30

2) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 22.5 – Career low 26.1 ft/sec sprint speed and 4.3 degree launch angle, but it didn’t stop Soto from nabbing 6 bags and cranking 13 homers in 47 games. Only thing that could stop him was a positive Covid test that delayed the start of his season until August 5th, and even that he quickly beat with 3 rapid result antigen tests and claims it was a false positive. 2021 Projection: 112/36/109/.309/.431/.596/11

3) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 22.3 – New exit velocity King with a whopping 95.9 MPH average, knocking Aaron Judge off the throne after a 4 year run, but major improvements in K% (down 5.9% to 23.7%) is the main reason Tatis is in the conversation for the top overall pick. 2021 Projection: 108/36/101/.279/.367/.563/25

4) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 29.8 – Stole a single base on two attempts in 53 games. Still plenty fast but did slow down slightly with a career low 4.33 home plate to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 111/44/105/.288/.417/.603/10

5) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019. It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22

6) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 27.9 – Maintained 2019’s exit velocity gains, except this year it showed up in his home run total with 12 dingers in 59 games. The added power hasn’t impacted his speed at all with the 5th fastest sprint speed in the game. On top of all that, he notched a career best 13.9% K%. He’s peaking all over our faces. 2021 Projection: 105/26/88/.297/.362/.506/34

7) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. Update: Underwent surgery to repair a dislocated right shoulder. I originally had him ranked 5th but the separation is so razer thin at the top, the injury is enough to knock him down 2 spots. He is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. 2021 Projection: 100/39/101/.273/.368/.570/14

8) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 28.6 – Increased launch angle every single year of his 6 year career which led to Ramirez crushing 17 homers in 58 games with a 23.2 degree launch angle. The power gains wouldn’t have been possible without the 2.3 MPH jump in FB/LD exit velocity, now sitting at a respectable 94.1 MPH. 2021 Projection: 105/35/103/.276/.370/.557/23

9) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 29.4 – Strikeout rate spiked to a career high 30.8%, partly because he became a more patient hitter (career high 18.6% BB%), but also because he simply swung and missed at a career worst rate (33.6% Whiff%). Whiff% was elevated in 2019 as well (28.2% after sitting around 23% the rest of his career), so this looks to be a trend. 2021 Projection: 107/33/99/.282/.383/.546/16

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 28.4 – Free agent after the 2021 season, meaning Story’s value could take a big hit if he doesn’t re-sign with Colorado. Of course, maybe he can DJ LeMahieu it. 2021 Projection: 107/35/92/.281/.350/.541/25

11) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 28.6 – Career bests in K%, BB%, exit velocity, and launch angle, all while stealing 8 bags in 58 games. Unlucky .268 BA (.307 xBA) kept Harper’s overall value from absolutely exploding. 2021 Projection: 106/38/104/.270/.397/.535/16

12) Francisco Lindor NYM, SS, 27.4 – Underwhelming season, and while there is nothing really setting off alarm bells in the underlying numbers, he did notch a career worst 20.4% whiff% along with a career worst 4.42 runtime to 1st. Don’t go panic selling, but it might be enough to knock Lindor out of that very elite tier. 2021 Projection: 98/30/88/.272/.341/.497/17

13) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Turned his fastball into a dominant pitch, upping the velocity 1 MPH to 94.1 MPH and spin rate 100 revolutions to 2354 revolutions per minute. It led to a 12% increase in whiff rate on the pitch. 2020 erased any doubt that Bieber is a true ace. 2021 Projection: 16/3.03/1.06/259 in 202 IP

14) Wander Franco TB, SS, 20.1 – I’m no prospect hoarder. I don’t do never ending rebuilds. I took over a perennial doormat in an 18 team league I joined last off-season and dealt off Nick Madrigal, Ian Anderson, Luis Patino, Casey Mize, DL Hall, Luis Garcia, the draft pick that turned into Jasson Dominguez, and multiple other draft picks in what led to a 2nd place finish and 2 more years of a championship compete window. “You play to win the game.” I say all this because Wander Franco is the exception to that rule. He is the type of generational prospect you stay patient with. Franco’s career 7% K% makes Vlad Jr look like a strikeout machine with a 12% mark over that same time period playing at the same levels. He’s next level special, and the floor is so high due to that innate hitting ability that he doesn’t have the normal risks associated with prospects. 2021 Projection: May-74/18/71/.276/.337/.435/8 Prime Projection: 113/28/106/.311/.394/.541/14

15) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 23.1 – Wasn’t the same after returning from a grade 1 sprain of the LCL in his right knee, slashing .361/.391/.672 in 14 games before the injury and .242/.266/.355 in 15 games after the injury. Even with the injury, he made incremental improvements in Whiff% (down 2.9% to 21.6%), FB/LD exit velocity (up 1.8 MPH to 94.7), and launch angle (up 1.6 degress to 12). 2021 Projection: 95/25/86/.285/.338/.483/17

16) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 32.9 – Increased velocity for the 4th year in a row to a now incredible 99 MPH. It resulted in a career high 41% whiff% (up from 31.5% in 2019). deGrom inexplicably keeps getting better. 2021 Projection: 14/2.81/0.98/267 in 199 IP

17) Manny Machado SD, 3B, 28.9 – Complete bounce back from a down 2019. K% dropped back down to 14.6%, barrel% jumped back up to 11%, and even stolen bases ticked back up with 6 steals in 60 games . 2021 Projection: 93/34/102/.284/.360/.538/9

18) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 30.7 – Homers were up (career high 1.73 HR/9) and got hit harder (exit velocity up 2.8 MPH to 90.4), but considering the small sample and strong overall numbers (2.84 ERA), I wouldn’t read too much into it. 2021 Projection: 16/3.18/1.08/265 in 198 IP

19) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 27.0 – It would be easy to point to the lack of cheating as the reason for Bregman’s down year, but the underlying numbers don’t really back that up. The biggest culprits seems to be luck (.254 BABIP) and his weak FB/LD exit velocity finally catching to him with only 6 homers in 42 games on the back of a meager 90.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 101/29/96/.281/.395/.519/6

20) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 28.6 – Perfect 8 for 8 on the base paths in 56 games is nice to see after he stole only 4 in 155 games last year. If he can maintain anything close to that pace, Bogaerts has the upside to be a top 5 fantasy player. 2021 Projection: 92/25/87/.289/.360/.505/10

21) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 23.4 – 20.2% K% in his first extended MLB action is extremely encouraging considering the strong underlying Statcast numbers (91.1 MPH exit velocity with a 14.9 degree launch) and baserunning ability (8 steals in 58 games). Tucker is a near elite dynasty asset. 2021 Projection: 87/28/91/.270/.335/.503/16

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 24.3 – Missed over a month with a wrist injury, but ripped it up after his return, slashing .338/.372/.581 with 5 homers and 3 steals in 18 games. He performed well in 52 post season PA too (.277/.327/.447), putting to bed any concerns about his slow start and injury. 2021 Projection: 94/25/85/.283/.341/.479/15

23) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 26.11 – Here is what I tweeted about Seager before the season (and echoed these same sentiments in my 2020 Top 1,000): “Look out for a Corey Seager power breakout: Another year removed from Tommy John & hip surgery, raised launch angle to a career high 14.1 degrees, and turns 26 in April, meaning he is entering his “man muscle” years. Good buy low in dynasty and a discount at 148 ADP in redraft.” … A power breakout is exactly what happened, as Seager’s exit velocity exploded to 93.2 MPH and he cranked 23 homers in 70 games including the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 92/30/99/.298/.361/.537/3

24) Vlad Guerrero Jr. TOR, 1B, 22.0 – Lost over 30 pounds one month after the season ended and claimed he fell out of shape during the Covid shutdown. The major breakout didn’t happen in 2020, but power did take a step forward with a 3.1 MPH jump in exit velocity to 92.5 MPH. His speed can be measured with a sundial (as my high school coach used to love to yell at me) with a 25.3 ft/sec sprint speed, but after losing the weight this off-season, maybe he can start to turn some more of those groundballs into hits. 2021 Projection: 87/28/92/.286/.361/.501/2

25) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 24.5 – Strikeout rate ballooned to a career worst 27% which lead to a .263 BA, but he continued to absolutely demolish the ball with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity. Sprint speed dropping to a below average 26.5 ft/sec is not a good sign for his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 91/32/100/.291/.338/.513/5

26) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 26.8 – Got off to a slow start and missed some time with a blister, but Buehler was back to his dominant self by the time the playoffs rolled around, putting up a 1.80 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 25 postseason innings. He had a 5.22 ERA in his first 6 starts of 2019 as well, so I wouldn’t sweat the slow start to this season either. 2021 Projection: 14/3.36/1.10/207 in 180 IP

27) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 24.4 – Incremental improvements in K% (26.6% to 24.8%) and exit velocity (91.2 MPH to 92.4 MPH) further cements Eloy as one of the top young power hitters in the game. Improvements in plate discipline (5.3% BB%) and GB% (51.9%) will unlock his full potential. 2021 Projection: 86/35/100/.278/.331/.541/1

28) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 27.9 – Followed up 2019 breakout by maintaining all of the gains he made along with taking another step in the power department, adding 3 MPH to his FB/LD exit velocity (93.7 MPH). 2021 Projection: 95/22/71/.290/.333/.462/19

29) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 25.8 – After putting up a .440 OPS in the first 37 games, he came back from the dead in the 2nd half, slashing .376/.424/.706 with 6 homers and 16 steals in 22 games. He was coming off major labrum surgery over the off-season, so it’s not a surprise it took him a little bit to shake the rust off. Mondesi might be the most divisive player in the fantasy community right now. 2021 Projection: 83/19/74/.253/.296/.432/48

30) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 23.8 – The wheels fell off in September, posting a .136/.237/.173 triple-slash. Overall, Robert was who we thought he was, an elite power/speed combo (11 homers and 9 steals in 56 games) with contact issues (41.6% whiff%). 2021 Projection: 85/26/84/.250/.321/.468/23

31) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 31.7 – Getting bit by the Covid bug must have given Freeman superpowers because he put up career bests is almost every underlying and surface stat there is. It would take too long to list them all. 2021 Projection: 105/35/109/.303/.404/.560/5

32) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 27.10 – Strikeout rate jumped to a career high 33.2% and brought BB% back down to 8% (spiked to 9.4% in 2019). The strong season erased any concerns after the slightly down 2019. 2021 Projection: 14/3.49/1.17/222 in 195 IP

33) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 25.11 – After being my greatest hit in 2019, Meadows turned into my biggest miss in 2020. Strikeout rate jumped to 32.9% and sprint speed tanked to 26.5 ft/sec, which are both completely out of character for his entire professional career. This leads me to believe that his struggles were largely due to catching Covid in July and never getting on track. Buy low. 2021 Projection: 87/26/83/.273/.346/.477/12

34) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 23.9 – Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on both knees in late August. Expected to be ready to go for the start of 2021. He’s one of the most talented young hitters in the game, so the risk is still worth the reward, but the fear of chronic knee issues has to knock him down a bit. 2021 Projection: 82/31/95/.272/.361/.546/1

35) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 30.10 – Played through a left wrist injury, and while he couldn’t match his elite 2019 career year, he got back to doing Yeoman’s work with a .286/.418/.497 triple-slash, 9 homers, and a 31/38 K/BB in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 91/30/102/.290/.388/.533/3

36) Trevor Bauer LAD, RHP, 30.2 – Drastically increased the spin rate on every one of his pitches (other than his changeup which he basically ditched) which resulted in a career high 36% K% and career low 6.1% BB%. 2021 Projection: 14/3.40/1.17/239 in 191 IP

37) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 26.9 – Backed up 2019 breakout with an equally impressive 2020, relying mostly on his dominant fastball/changeup combo. 2021 Projection: 13/3.54/1.18/227 in 180 IP

38) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Never fully recovered from Covid and was dealing with a lack of energy and strength all season. I’m no virologist, so I have no idea what the chances are these issues will last until 2021, but I’m going to assume a return to full health. 2021 Projection: 89/26/85/.263/.344/.475/10

39) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 25.6 – The Cardinals Covid outbreak made an already tough season even tougher for Cardinals players, and Flaherty was never really able to get on track with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP. One thing to keep an eye on is that Flaherty’s BABIP normalized this season (.281) after sitting abnormally low the past 2 seasons. 2021 Projection: 12/3.62/1.20/214 in 184 IP

40) George Springer TOR, OF, 31.6 – Put up a career best 35.9% GB% (44.6% in 2019) while also improving his K% to a career best 17.1%. It led to 14 homers in 51 games (plus 4 homers in 13 playoff games). Combined with a career year in 2019, Springer is establishing himself as a near elite hitter. 2021 Projection: 99/34/91/.272/.363/.530/6

41) Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 24.4 – Mediocre numbers on the season (.724 OPS), but this is a pretty clear case of one extended slump tanking your numbers due to the shortened season. If there was any question, he put up a 246 wRC+ in 30 postseason at-bats. 2021 Projection: 92/30/92/.275/.357/.504/4

42) Yu Darvish SD, RHP, 34.7 – Improved control from the 2nd half of 2019 carried over to 2020 with a career best 4.7% BB%. Also notched a career high 96.2 MPH four seamer velocity. It all resulted in Darvish moving into the very elite tier of pitchers. 2021 Projection: 15/3.27/1.09/223 in 175 IP

43) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 28.4 – Made incremental improvements in K% (30.5%), BB% (8.2%), exit velocity against (86 MPH), and launch angle against (2.2 degrees). 2021 Projection: 13/3.56/1.21/222 in 185 IP

44) Blake Snell SD, LHP, 28.4 – Didn’t pitch more than 5.2 innings in any of his 17 starts, culminating in the now infamous decision to pull him after a dominant 5.1 innings in Game 6 of the World Series. Biggest concern is his elbow, which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019 and a cortisone shot in Feb 2020. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.24/221 in 170 IP

45) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 28.11 – Battled through a stress fracture in his right rib, a right shoulder injury and a right calf strain which limited him to 28 games. The injuries resulted in a 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. He has power to spare, but he has to be on the field to take advantage of it. 2021 Projection: 89/34/86/.263/.361/.541/4

46) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 26.4 – Ripped 10 dingers in September to close out the season after underwhelming in the first half. Alonso is your classic low average slugger. 2021 Projection: 88/40/103/.249/.342/.531/1

47) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Fastball was just as dominant in 2020 as it was in 2019, ranking 2nd in baseball behind only Marco Gonzalez. Changeup, curve, and slider all took a step forward as well. 2021 Projection: 13/3.51/1.15/205 in 170 IP

48) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Built on his 2019 breakout in 2020. BB% dropped down to 8.6%, which is nice to see after the 10.8% mark he put up in 2019 was the biggest cause for concern coming into the year. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.25/202 in 170 IP

49) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 27.7 – K% exploded to 38.2%. Gave back some of the gains he made in BB% in 2019 (up 3.1% to 9.2%) and got hit up for a career worst 90.4 MPH exit velocity, but most of the underlying stats show the 4.08 ERA was unlucky (3.11 xERA and 2.75 xFIP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.48/1.20/205 in 159 IP

50) Trent Grisham SD, OF, 24.5 – Power took a step forward with his FB/LD exit velocity jumping 3.1 MPH to 94 MPH. Tack on a plus plate approach (12.3% BB%), plus speed (29.1 ft/sec sprint speed), and a reasonable whiff% (24.4%), and even this ranking might be underrating Grisham. 2021 Projection: 92/23/75/.256/.351/.465/21

51) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 21.8 – Was all the buzz at alternate camp, drilling homers and showing increased power. Combine that with a plus hit tool and plus speed, and Kelenic has the ingredients to be an elite all category contributor. 2021 Projection: June-53/15/47/.257/.318/.431/10 Prime Projection: 93/26/89/.282/.355/.478/15

52) Marcell Ozuna ATL, OF, 30.5 – Career (shortened) year, cranking 18 homers with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity, 16.4 degree launch angle and 14.2% BB%. Only thing to keep an eye on is that it also came with a career high 31.4% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 86/34/99/.273/.352/.518/5

53) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 27.7 – .575 OPS in first 18 games had many people dropping Gurriel in redrafts, but he closed the season red hot, slashing .345/.390/.634 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a 34/11 K/BB in 154 PA. Improved his whiff% by 6.5% to 26.3% and maintained a very strong 90.8 MPH exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 84/28/90/.274/.328/.492/7

54) Sonny Gray CIN, RHP, 31.5 – Not only did Gray maintain his drastic 2019 strikeout breakout, but he actually improved his K% again to 30.6%. 2021 Projection: 12/3.51/1.20/187 in 170 IP

55) Max Fried ATL, LHP, 27.2 – Exit velocity against plummeted to 83.4 MPH, which is completely out of line with the rest of his career and doesn’t feel sustainable. HR/LD rate sat at a miniscule 4.9%. Fried is a damn good pitcher, just not quite this good. 2021 Projection: 13/3.55/1.21/178 in 174 IP

56) Brandon Lowe TB, OF/2B, 26.9 – Here is what I tweeted about Brandon Lowe last off-season (and echoed those exact same sentiments in the 2020 Top 1,000), “Brandon Lowe getting seriously underrated. Elite underlying power hitting numbers (18.7 launch, 96 MPH FB/LD), and while 34.6% K% is high, he’s done much better than that every other year of his career including 2018 in the majors. Also has some speed.” … Lowe brought his K% down to 25.9% in 2020 en route to a monster season, slashing .269/.362/.554 with 14 homers, 3 steals, and a 58/25 K/BB in 56 games. 2021 Projection: 85/34/89/.259/.340/.529/8

57) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 27.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2020 and is expected to be out until June or July 2021. If you can take the hit in the 1st half of the season, nabbing Severino is a great way to get a long term ace at a discount. 2021 Projection: 6/3.65/1.20/98 in 90 IP

58) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 23.6 – Solid rookie season, showing off a mid 90’s four seamer and sinker while establishing his curveball and changeup as plus pitches. Health and durability over 180+ innings is still the biggest question mark. 2021 Projection: 9/3.74/1.21/156 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.49/1.19/198 in 183 IP

59) Corbin Burnes MIL, RHP, 26.6 – Developed a cutter which immediately became his most valuable pitch and mostly ditched his 4-seamer which was one of the worst 4-seamers in baseball in 2019. 13.27 K/9 ranked 4th overall behind only Glasnow, Bieber, and deGrom (minimum 30 IP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.71/1.26/192 in 160 IP

60) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 24.8 – Exit velocity dropped 4 MPH to 87.4 MPH, but still put up big power numbers with 13 homers in 59 games. Strikeout rate got even worse (30.7% in 2019 to 34.6% in 2020), but Hiura has shown the ability to make much better contact during his minor league career, so I don’t think all hope is lost. 2021 Projection: 81/30/87/.247/.325/.483/9

61) Nolan Arenado STL, 3B, 30.0 – Season was tanked by a shoulder injury that he suffered on July 29th. Was shut down in September when an MRI revealed inflammation in the AC joint and a bone bruise. Arenado battled a shoulder injury in 2018 as well, so this seems to be a recurring issue. Trade to St. Louis further depresses his value. 2021 Projection: 86/32/92/.268/.347/.518/2

62) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 27.11 – Underwent labrum repair surgery on his right hip in September with a 4 month recovery timetable. Chapman took everything to the max in 2020 with his launch angle rising 7.7 degrees to 24.1 degrees, FB/LD exit velocity rising to 99 MPH, and strikeout rate exploding 13.6% to 35.5%. It’s only a 37 game sample, so I’m assuming these numbers would have regressed a bit as the season wore on. 2021 Projection: 95/36/92/.252/.343/.508/1

63) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 28.7 – Whiff% on a 3 year incline culminating with a career worst 31.7% in 2020, but the extremely low .202 BA was mostly due a .214 BABIP. The power was full throttle with 15 bombs in 57 games. 2021 Projection: 83/35/97/.257/.349/.528/3

64) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 27.0 – Career worst strikeout rate (31.4%) and career worst BABIP (.227) led to a .195 batting average. Elite power is intact, so years like this are just part of the deal when you own low average sluggers. 2021 Projection: 82/37/96/.242/.343/.512/1

65) Zach Plesac CLE, RHP, 26.2 – Breakout year with a pitching line of 2.28/0.80/55/6 in 55.1 IP. Strikeout rate exploded with an 11.1% whiff% increase on his changeup. Slider became the 5th most valuable slider in baseball. 2021 Projection: 12/3.69/1.19/164 in 168 IP

66) Ian Anderson ATL, RHP, 22.11 – Electrifying MLB debut with a pitching line of 1.59/1.10/65/24 in 51 IP including the playoffs. Changeup and curve both put up a whiff% around 40% (39.8% and 40.5% respectively) and the fastball sat at a respectable 94.1 MPH. Spin rates don’t jump out at you, but does an excellent job of tunneling his pitches. 2021 Projection: 10/3.76/1.26/170 in 155 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.42/1.19/228 in 193 IP

67) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B, 27.6 – Couldn’t maintain his 2019 power breakout, hitting only 2 homers in 45 games as his FB/LD exit velocity dropped 1.9 MPH to 91.6. It was also a product of bad luck as he had a ridiculously low 3.8% HR/FB rate. 2021 Projection: 90/22/84/.291/.346/.469/8

68) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 28.4 – Underlying and surface stats down across the board. Sprint speed dropped to a career low 27.9 ft/sec, which isn’t a great sign as he enters his late 20’s, but also might be a sign he wasn’t in top shape for this slapdash season. 2021 Projection: 88/27/87/.263/.309/.486/9

69) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 22.0 – Armageddon MLB debut with a 41.7% K%, 0 steals, and a .161/.212/.266 triple-slash in 132 PA. Only silver lining was the strong statcast numbers (90.6 MPH exit velocity and 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed). This was the year Adell was supposed to adjust to the Triple-A level after striking out 32.6% of the time there in 2019, so the extreme struggles on the MLB level shouldn’t be surprising. I’m still in. 2021 Projection: 55/17/51/.236/.301/.438/5 Prime Projection: 92/34/96/.262/.341/.512/15

70) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 20.3 – Suffered a hairline fracture in his left wrist in July which sidelined him for most of alternate camp. Struggled in Liga de Beisbol Dominicano, slashing .208/.300/.264 with 0 homers, 3 steals, and a 15/5 K/BB in 53 AB. The lost year and struggles in Winter League don’t change his massive upside. 2021 Projection: 26/7/30/.252/.312/.418/2 Prime Projection: 91/31/99/.277/.353/.522/8

71) Dinelson Lamet SD, RHP, 28.8 – Most valuable slider in baseball by a landslide with a negative 19 run value. Next best is Brad Keller and Matt Wisler at -10. BB% improved for the second season in a row to 7.5%. Suffered from biceps tendinitis late in the season but is not expected to need surgery. 2021 Projection: 10/3.63/1.20/183 in 147 IP

72) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 26.6 – Exploded in the playoffs after a quiet regular season, slashing .362/.455/.766 with 6 homers in 13 games. He hit 5 homers in 58 regular season games. It’s just another example that you can’t put too much stock into only a 60 game sample. 2021 Projection: 84/26/93/.273/.351/.489/3

73) Shohei Ohtani LAA, DH, 26.9 – Coming off Tommy John surgery, Ohtani started 2020 with two horrific starts (37.80 ERA in 1.2 IP) and was then shut down from pitching for the season with a grade 1-2 strain of the flexor pronator mass in his right arm. Making matters worse, he didn’t perform all that well at the dish either with a 2.7% increase in K% (28.6%) and a 3.7 MPH decrease in exit velocity (89.1 MPH). He’s too young and talented to sell low on, but next season could be his last to prove he can be a long term two way player. 2021 Projection: Hitting-65/20/68/.258/.349/.486/14 — Pitching-6/3.93/1.31/115 in 100 IP

74) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B, 23.4 – MLB strikeout rate remained elevated at 27.5% (29.3% in 2019), albeit in a small 69 PA sample. Sprint speed mysteriously dropped to 27.7 ft/sec (28.8 in 2019), which could mean there was some kind of undisclosed injury, and would be oddly encouraging as a reason for the weak numbers (.596 OPS). 2021 Projection: 74/20/69/.258/.327/.441/8 Prime Projection: 88/26/82/.274/.348/.472/11

75) Marco Luciano SF, SS, 19.7 – Hit a monster homerun in fall instructional league with an alleged exit velocity of 119 MPH. Matt Daniels, the Giants’ coordinator of pitching sciences, claimed Luciano’s dinger was “quite possibly the furthest home run I’ve ever witnessed in person.” ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 91/33/99/.277/.350/.520/9

76) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 24.8 – Everything but the strikeouts were there in the regular season (3.27 ERA with 45 K’s in 55 IP) and those exploded in the playoffs with 29 K’s in 23 IP. Continues to be among the best in the league at inducing weak contact. 2021 Projection: 10/3.49/1.18/134 in 140 IP

77) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 33.0 – Velocity up 1.3 MPH from 2019, but is still down overall at 91.6 MPH. Continues to dominate with the decreased velocity even as his FIP’s/xERA’s,/xFip’s etc … have all risen to slightly more mortal levels. 2021 Projection: 13/3.32/1.07/187 in 177 IP

78) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 32.8 – Limited to only 2 starts due to carpel tunnel syndrome in his right hand which required surgery in August. He’s expected to be ready to go for 2021. Injuries have been a thorn in Strasburg’s side for his entire career. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.16/195 in 167 IP

79) Starling Marte MIA, OF, 32.6 – Numbers were right in line with career norms, but if you take out the magnifying glass and investigate for signs of decline, you would see a career worst 4.26 second runtime from home plate to first base (up from 4.15) and a 1.5 MPH decline in exit velocity (87.1 MPH). If your team gets off to a slow start in 2021, Marte is a piece you definitely want to put on the block. 2021 Projection: 83/20/74/.275/.332/.447/24

80) Whit Merrifield KC, 2B/OF, 32.4 – Speed slightly declined every year over the last 4 years, dropping to a career worst 28.4 ft/sec in 2020. Similar to Starling Marte, I would try to milk one more good year out of Merrifield before putting him on the trade block. 2021 Projection: 89/18/71/.292/.340/.451/24

81) JT Realmuto PHI, C, 30.1 – Slowly improved power production nearly every year of his career, culminating with a career high .225 ISO and 11 homers in 47 games in 2020, but it came at the cost of some swing and miss with a whiff% that jumped 6% to a career high 29.8%. 2021 Projection: 86/25/81/.268/.343/.487/8

82) Cavan Biggio TOR, 2B, 26.0 – Maintained high walk rate (15.5%) while bringing strikeout rate down 5.6% to 23%. He doesn’t crush the ball (91.6 MPH FB/LD exit velo), but he hits it in the air and is an excellent base stealer at a perfect 20 for 20 in his 159 game MLB career. 2021 Projection: 96/23/73/.257/.370/.441/13

83) Spencer Torkelson DET, 3B/1B, 21.7 – Selected 1st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Torkelson launched 54 homers in 129 games at Arizona State. He’s a big bodied power hitter with patience, below average speed, and a BA that shouldn’t hurt you. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 89/35/102/.270/.353/.529/3

84) Andrew Vaughn CHW, 1B, 23.0 – Flip a coin between Vaughn and Tork. Vaughn will give you less power but a better average and will likely be hitting in a better lineup for the foreseeable future. I still lean with Tork and the extra power, but it’s close. 2021 Projection: June-38/12/36/.257/.335/.444/1 Prime Projection: 92/29/95/.282/.364/.509/3

85) Alec Bohm PHI, 3B, 24.9 – Excellent MLB debut, slashing .338/.400/.481 with 4 homers and a 20%/8.9% K%/BB%. BABIP was high (.410) and FB% was low (25.4%), but he hit the ball very hard (90.2 MPH exit velo) and he did a much better job of lifting the ball at Double-A in 2019 (40.7% FB%). 2021 Projection: 78/23/86/.272/.338/.444/4 Prime Projection: 88/27/96/.285/.357/.488/5

86) Randy Arozarena TB, OF, 26.1 – I saw the writing on the wall in my 2020 Top 1,000 ranking, writing, “Hit the ball hard in his MLB debut with a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity to go along with plus speed and a good feel to hit.” But then I got scared off by the playing time logjam in Tampa, writing, “Joining the deep and talented Rays roster likely limits his upside to a super utility player in the near future,” and ultimately ranked him 677th overall. The rest is history, as Arozarena bullied his way into an everyday role and exploded with a .333 BA, 17 homers, 4 steals, and a 41/14 K/BB in 43 games including the playoffs. He showed off the same high exit velocities and speed that he showed in his brief 2019 debut. 2021 Projection: 84/25/78/.257/.331/.463/14

87) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 36.8 – The signs of decline reared their ugly head towards the end of 2019 after injuring his back (4.81 ERA in final 43 IP), and they continued into 2020 with an elevated walk rate (up 3% to 7.8%) and pedestrian ERA (3.75). The stuff was still great and the strikeouts were at career norms, so even at his advanced age, there is a chance this is less of an extended decline and more of blip on the radar. 2021 Projection: 14/3.30/1.13/246 in 187 IP

88) DJ LeMahieu NYY, 2B, 32.9 – It turns out Yankee Stadium was even more advantageous for LeMahieu than Coors field was as this was the 2nd year in a row that he notched a career high ISO (.226 in 2020). Also decreased K% to a career low 9.7%. 2021 Projection: 96/22/78/.307/.362/.495/6

89) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 30.11 – Monster postseason (234 wRC+ in 13 games) salvaged a disastrous regular season (77 wRC+ in 48 games). He came down with a case of the yips at second base, so some of those struggles could have been mental. The one thing that does look certain is that his days of racking up steals are over as he went 2 for 7 on stolen base attempts. 2021 Projection: 92/23/71/.287/.345/.477/7

90) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 31.5 – Classic Stanton season. A hamstring injury limited him to only 30 games including the playoffs, but he mashed in those games with 10 dingers. 2021 Projection: 86/38/88/.257/.362/.542/2

91) Lance McCullers Jr. HOU, RHP, 27.7 – Took him a bit to shake the rust off in his return from Tommy John, but he looked excellent when he did with a pitching line of 2.89/1.02/68/15 in final 56 IP including the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 10/3.76/1.26/161 in 145 IP

92) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 26.9 – BB% jumped 5.2% to a career high 10.8% and whiff% dropped 3.4% to a career low 25% but it couldn’t prevent Laureano from putting together a mediocre season (.704 OPS). The gains he made in those areas are a good sign, but the drop in sprint speed for the 2nd year in a row (27.9 ft/sec) calls into question his future stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 89/25/85/.268/.335/.468/10

93) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 28.1 – Surface stat breakout but it was mostly due to good fortune (.412 BABIP) as most of the underlying numbers remained relatively similar. 2021 Projection: 89/28/91/.270/.370/.490/5

94) Eddie Rosario CLE, OF, 29.6 – Improved the weakest part of his game, upping BB% 4.5% to a now very respectable 8.2%. I can’t think of a single player who gets less hype and less love relative to their production in fantasy than Rosario. Poor defense makes him overrated in real life. 2021 Projection: 86/29/91/.275/.326/.496/7

95) Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT, 3B, 24.2 – Eye opening MLB debut with a .376/.442/.682 triple-slash, 5 homers, 1 steal, and a 21.1%/9.5% K%/BB%. Plus plate approach completely transferred to the majors, and with a 92.8 MPH exit velocity, you don’t have to hit many flyballs (30.8% FB%) to knock a few dingers out. Tack on a 28 ft/sec sprint speed and even this ranking might be too conservative. 2021 Projection: 82/22/76/.276/.343/.466/10

96) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 22.1 – Didn’t stand out at alternate camp, having some issues with his delivery, command, and velocity. Ace upside is still there, but San Diego did not think he was ready. 2021 Projection: 7/3.95/1.32/125 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.40/1.15/221 in 193 IP

97) Jose Abreu CHW, 1B, 34.2 – Abreu was almost singlehandedly the reason why I was overtaken for 1st place in that 18 team league I was talking about in the Wander Franco blurb. I inherited a perennial doormat and turned the team around into a winner overnight, so I can’t be upset at 2nd place, but damn if it didn’t seem like Abreu hit at least one homer a day from about mid August on. 2021 Projection: 82/30/101/.298/.352/.537/1

98) Dansby Swanson ATL, SS, 27.2 – Power continues to improve slowly but surely with a career high .190 ISO. Strikeout rate increased 4.1% to a career high 26.9% and needed a .350 BABIP to buoy his .274 BA. 2021 Projection: 89/23/74/.264/.339/.458/11

99) Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 23.2 – Had two big hits in 2020, not in a professional baseball game (there were none of those for minor leaguers), but on social media, going viral twice with an instagram post and TikTok video. As for baseball, the reports from alternate camp did nothing to quell the hype of Rutschman becoming the best catcher in baseball. 2021 Projection: July-27/10/32/.251/.326/.437/1 Prime Projection: 83/27/88/.280/.359/.498/3

100) Luke Voit NYY, 1B, 30.2 – Led the league in homers with 22, and brought K% down to a career low 23.1%. Voit’s done nothing but rake for 3 straight years now. 2021 Projection: 82/31/93/.264/.341/.505/0

101) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 27.3 – Continues to improve power with a 1.8 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity to 96.8 MPH, leading to 13 homers in 39 games, while maintaining a not unreasonable 28.9% whiff%. Patience (1.5% BB%), stolen base attempts (1 for 3 on the season), and durability (sprained left foot, left shoulder inflammation, and a concussion) are still major areas of concern. 2021 Projection: 77/27/81/.258/.303/.495/15

102) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 32.0 – Underwent Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020. Like Severino, will likely be out until the 2nd half of the season, but it creates a buying opportunity if your team has struggled to find an ace. 2021 Projection: 5/3.67/1.22/103 in 80 IP

103) Nick Castellanos CIN, OF, 29.1 – Traded strikeouts for power, putting up a career best 91 MPH exit velocity and career worst 28.5% K%. Low BABIP (.257) kept his overall numbers slightly down (.784 OPS). 2021 Projection: 89/30/87/.262/.329/.502/2

104) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 28.2 – Continues to produce poor BABIP’s (career .252), making the low batting averages hard to call bad luck even with the excellent contact rates (21.2% whiff%). Increased launch angle every year of his career (21.9 degrees in 2020), so the power isn’t going anywhere. 2021 Projection: 91/30/88/.258/.339/.479/5

105) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B, 29.3 – Constantly banged up with a variety of ailments (sore back, mild left elbow injury, soreness around left ring finger and wrist, and lower oblique tightness), which can partially explain the very down season (.644 OPS). Underlying and surface stats were down across the board, but considering the 34 game sample, weird season, and constant injuries, a bounce back should be in order. 2021 Projection: 91/27/79/.269/.361/.480/4

106) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 23.10 – Gained about 15 pounds of muscle over last off-season and it resulted in a career low 28 ft/sec sprint speed (29.3 in 2019). It didn’t help his power either with his exit velocity dropping to a cover your eyes, career low 82.2 MPH. K% ballooned to 28% as well. Trade value is so low the only thing you can do is hold. 2021 Projection: 81/16/69/.258/.327/.417/20

107) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 33.7 – The strikeout rate was a bit high, walk rate a bit low, and exit velocity a bit down, but none of his underlying numbers were really too far off from his career norms. Age is a factor, so this might might be the start of a decline phase, but it also might be just a down year in a small sample size. 2021 Projection: 88/32/96/.284/361/.530/3

108) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 34.9 – Slashed .500/.527/.721 in his first 74 PA and then closed the year out with a .216/283/.327 triple-slash in final 173 PA. Relatively weak .804 OPS could have been due to wearing down after testing positive for Covid in June, or maybe it was due to simply not being given the chance to get hot again in the shortened season. 2021 Projection: 91/27/86/.296/.349/.491/6

109) Paul Goldschmidt STL, 1B, 33.7 – Career best 18.6% K% led to a .304 batting average but it came at the expense of some power (8 homers in 61 games including playoffs). 2021 Projection: 88/28/87/.283/.376/.489/4

110) Dylan Carlson STL, OF, 22.6 – Mediocre pro debut (.616 OPS in 119 PA), but was just starting to heat up toward the end of the season, slashing .295/.377/.614 in final 53 PA including the playoffs. FB/LD exit velocity was very strong at 96.6 MPH and a .260 BABIP is sure to improve. 2021 Projection: 76/22/71/.258/.323/.436/8 Prime Projection: 92/27/86/.273/.341/.482/9

111) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 18.2 – Boy do they grow up fast. Dominguez looks like an absolute tank now, but the swing still looks mighty athletic. The added weight isn’t scaring me away, but it does seem to push the risk/reward up to even more extreme levels on both ends. Maybe I’m a sucker for upside, but a player with elite all category upside is someone I’m willing to risk it all for … and by risk it all, I mean Jose Berrios and players ranked after him. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 98/31/95/.273/.356/.521/17

112) Jose Berrios MIN, RHP, 26.10 – Velocity up on all of his pitches, leading to a career high 27.4% whiff% but also a 3.5% increase in walk rate (9.6%). Overall performance didn’t change all that much (4.00 ERA), but the increase in velocity gives him a nice little boost in upside. 2021 Projection: 13/3.91/1.28/187 in 180 IP

113) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 28.7 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2020 and will likely miss half the season. Syndergaard is the last of the discounted Tommy John surgery aces, joining Severino and Sale. 2021 Projection: 4/3.83/1.26/85 in 80 IP

114) Kristian Robinson ARI, OF, 20.4 – Added 25 pounds of muscle from the time OG Spring Training got shut down to his arrival at alternate camp on August 20. Team officials were gushing over the prodigious power and elite athleticism. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/30/92/.252/.338/.509/16

115) Jeter Downs BOS, 2B, 22.8 – Here’s your obligatory alternate camp prospect porn of Downs ripping a homer. He likely won’t be breaking any exit velocity or sprint speed records, but he lifts the ball with a good feel to hit and has above average base stealing skills. 2021 Projection: July-44/11/41/.258/.322/.435/7 Prime Projection: 91/26/88/.274/.341/.473/14

116) CJ Abrams SD, SS, 20.6 – Plus hit tool and plus speed shined through in his 2019 pro debut, slashing .401/.442/.662 with 14 steals and a 9% K% in 32 rookie ball games, and now reports from alternate camp have been glowing with positive physical development and added strength. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 94/20/79/.283/.345/.448/28

117) Sixto Sanchez MIA, RHP, 22.8 – Strong MLB debut with a pitching line of 3.46/1.21/33/11 in 39 IP. Exactly as advertised with elite stuff that produces weak contact but doesn’t produce big strikeout numbers. 2021 Projection: 9/3.83/1.24/133 in 146 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.59/1.14/181 in 183 IP

118) Franmil Reyes CLE, OF, 25.9 – Maintained elite exit velocity and raised launch angle 1.7 degrees to 11.2, but whiff rate increased for the 2nd year in a row to a concerning 38.5% 2021 Projection: 76/31/90/.257/.326/.491/0

119) Austin Martin TOR, OF, 22.0 – Selected 5th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft but signed for the 2nd largest signing bonus. Martin has a quick bat with natural loft, an advanced plate approach and above average speed. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 91/23/80/.276/.347/.449/13

120) Bobby Witt Jr. KC, SS, 20.10 – Witt looked good enough at alternate camp that team officials thought he could hold his own in the majors right now. That could put him on the fast track, maybe breaking into the majors as an outfielder. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/26/88/.264/.332/.472/19

121) Gio Urshela NYY, 3B, 29.6 – Underwent surgery to remove a bone chip from his right elbow in December, and is expected to be ready to go for 2021. BB% jumped 5% to 10.3%, K% dropped 3.9% to 14.4%, and exit velocity increased 0.9 MPH to 91.4 MPH. At worst he backed up 2019’s breakout, and at best there could be a monster season coming in 2021. I told you last year in my 2020 Top 1,000 that “these out of nowhere, late career breakout players remain the most underrated assets in dynasty leagues,” and there seems to be one last buying opportunity this off-season. 2021 Projection: 84/26/93/.282/.341/.486/1

122) Kenta Maeda MIN, RHP, 33.0 – Was itching to get back to being a full time starter and he backed it up with a dominate 2019, putting up a pitching line of 2.70/0.75/80/10 in 66.2 IP. He did it with a 6 pitch mix that notched him career highs in K% (32.3%), BB% (4%), exit velocity (85.3 MPH), and launch angle (10.8 degrees). 2021 Projection: 12/3.52/1.13/169 in 162 IP

123) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 25.8 – Slashed .244/.327/.489 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 10/6 K/BB in 14 games before coming down with Covid. He went 2 for 32 upon his return. Even with the poor finish, the underlying stats look very encouraging, notching a 19.2% K% with a 16.3 degree launch angle, 88.3 MPH exit velocity, and 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed. The ingredients are there for a 2021 breakout, and the price to acquire Senzel couldn’t be cheaper. 2021 Projection: 81/22/76/.265/.329/.448/17

124) Corbin Carroll ARI, OF, 20.7 – Wowed Diamondback officials at alternate camp, stinging balls all over the field and showing off his lightening fast speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 88/20/80/.272/.341/.453/27

125) Royce Lewis MIN, SS, 21.10 – Reports from alternate camp have Lewis hitting for more power while maintaining a good BA as he continues to tweak his hitting mechanics. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/23/82/.273/.332/.452/21

126) Nate Pearson TOR, RHP, 24.7 – Flexor strain in right elbow limited Pearson to 20 IP with a 5.40 ERA, but the stuff was as advertised with a 96.3 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 8/4.11/1.33/145 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.56/1.20/190 in 178 IP

127) Teoscar Hernandez TOR, OF, 28.6 – Exit velocity exploded from very good to elite levels in 2020, crushing baseballs to the tune of a 93.3 MPH exit velocity and 98.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity en route to 16 homers in 50 games. I’m inclined to call it a career year rather than a breakout, because his K% (30.4%) and BB% (6.8%) did not improve along with the exit velocity, and a .261/.311/.463 triple-slash in his final 18 games was more in line with his career norms. 2021 Projection: 76/28/84/.251/.318/.496/8

128) Lance Lynn CHW, RHP, 33.11 – Had a 1.93 ERA until the month of September where he got hit up for a 5.51 ERA, including a 9 ER disaster in the last start of the season. Dominates with 3 different fastballs (4-seam, cutter, sinker) while mixing in a curve and the occasional change. 2021 Projection: 13/3.70/1.25/184 in 178 IP

129) Zack Wheeler PHI, RHP, 30.10 – Strikeout rate tanked 5.2% to 18.4% due to a 26.6% whiff% decrease on the curve and 7.1% whiff% decrease on the fastball. It didn’t impact his ERA or WHIP at all (2.92/1.17) and most of the damage came in the first 4 starts of the season (41 K’s in 45 IP in final 7 starts). 2021 Projection: 11/3.70/1.24/174 in 180 IP

130) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 31.8 – Velocity dropped over 1.5 MPH on all of his pitches and it resulted in Corbin getting hit harder (90.7 MPH exit velocity against) and striking out fewer batters (20.3% K%). 2021 Projection: 12/3.85/1.25/180 in 181 IP

131) Carlos Carrasco NYM, RHP, 34.0 – Beat Leukemia in 2019 and he barely skipped a beat as he was back to his normal self in 2020 with a pitching line of 2.91/1.21/82/27 in 68 IP. The only thing out of line was a huge jump in BB%, increasing 4.9% to 9.6%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.78/1.22/181 in 163 IP

132) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 27.4 – As predicted by pretty much everyone Gallo wasn’t1 able to maintain 2019’s .253 BA (.181 in 2020). Exit velocity was very strong (91.2 MPH), but it wasn’t in the land of the elite like it had been over the last 3 years. Obviously gets a huge bump in anything but standard 5×5. 2021 Projection: 89/38/91/.212/.331/.510/4

133) Ian Happ CHC, OF, 26.8 – 35.7% whiff% is in the danger zone territory, but Happ took his power to another level with a 91.1 MPH exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 86/27/84/.250/.343/.482/6

134) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 28.0 – Dominated in first 23 IP (1.57 ERA) until an upper back injury popped up and tanked his season, putting up a 8.70 ERA in final 30 IP. Excellent bounce back candidate with a clean bill of health heading into 2021. 2021 Projection: 10/3.89/1.28/168 in 160 IP

135) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 25.3 – ERA ballooned to 5.02 due to lack of fastball command (fastball spin also took a step back) and inability to develop a viable third pitch. One or both will have to improve in order to remain in the rotation and hold off San Diego’s horde of talented pitching prospects. 2021 Projection: 8/4.12/1.21/151 in 145 IP

136) Triston McKenzie CLE, RHP, 23.8 – Durability concerns over extremely slight frame are warranted as McKenzie’s velocity was in a steady decline in his first 6 starts before being moved to the pen in his final two appearances. What can’t be questioned is the productivity as he put up the same dominant stats, both surface and underlying, in the Majors that he did in the minors. The upside is too high to pass up, and I’m betting on nature doing it’s thing and slowing down that metabolism as he ages. 2021 Projection: 7/3.90/1.24/128 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.51/1.16/195 in 178 IP

137) Framber Valdez HOU, LHP, 27.4 – Vastly improved BB%, dropping it from 13.4% to 5.6% en route to a breakout season (3.57 ERA). Groundball pitcher with a negative launch angle against (-0.7 degrees), but gets hit hard with a 91.7 MPH exit velocity against. Throws the third most valuable curveball in the game behind only German Marquez and Shane Bieber. 2021 Projection: 10/3.75/1.28/169 in 165 IP

138) Joe Musgrove SD, RHP, 28.4 – Right triceps inflammation limited Musgrove to 39.2 IP. Strikeouts (11.2% increase to 33.1%) and whiffs (8.3% increase to 33%) exploded on the back of his slider (11.3% whiff% increase to 50.6%) and curveball (13.6% whiff% increase to 53.2%). Slider spin rate was up 183 revolutions to 2677 and curveball spin rate was up 137 revolutions to to 2712, further backing up the strikeout gains. The K’s came with at the expense of some control with his BB% increasing 4.2% to a career worst 9.6%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.68/1.25/168 in 155 IP

139) Luis Patino TB, RHP, 21.5 – Poor MLB debut with a pitching line of 5.19/1.85/21/14 in 17.1 IP. The stuff was as advertised with 96.7 MPH heat, a changeup that put up a .211 xwOBA, and a slider with a 47.8% whiff%, but the poor debut likely puts him on the outside looking in for a 2021 rotation spot. 2021 Projection: 3/4.19/1.34/94 in 89 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.58/1.20/191 in 175 IP

140) Kyle Lewis SEA, OF, 25.9 – Started the season on fire, slashing .373/.440/.567 with 4 homers and a 22/8 K/BB in first 75 PA, and then closed the season on ice, slashing .139/.258/.266 with 3 homers and a 34/13 K/BB in final 93 PA. Increase in sprint speed to 27.9 ft/sec is a good sign the major knee injury is behind him. 2021 Projection: 86/25/79/.244/.328/.452/9

141) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 28.0 – Underwent internal brace repair surgery on the UCL in his left elbow in early October with a 4-6 month timetable. Hoskins continues to be an extreme fly ball hitter (51.9%) with extreme patience (15.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 87/30/84/.241/.376/.498/3

142) Marcus Semien TOR, SS, 30.6 – Regressed right back to pre 2019 breakout levels with strikeout rate rising 7.5% to 21.2% and ISO declining from .237 to .157. Picked it up in 7 playoff games (219 wRC+), so while it looks like 2019 was a career year, maybe some of the gains were real if given a full season. 2021 Projection: 88/24/70/.260/.341/.453/11

143) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 31.8 – Low BABIP (.218), career worst exit velocity (87.7 MPH), and career worst sprint speed (24.8 ft/sec) is responsible for the down season (.755 OPS). Maybe his chronic bad back is starting to take a toll, but FB/LD exit velocity and K/BB were still strong, so I’m leaning towards it being a down year rather than the start of a true decline. 2021 Projection: 86/26/89/.273/.374/.496/5

144) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 28.8 – An out of character 26.5% K% was the driving force for Bell’s down year, but he was starting to come out of it in the 2nd half, slashing .270/.360/.446 with 4 homers and a 18/11 K/BB in 24 games. Bell blamed the down year on the fact watching in-game video was banned in 2020, which he leaned on heavily in 2019, so the strong finish is a good sign he was starting to get used to a new routine. 2020 Projection: 78/25/85/.265/.353/.474/1

145) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/3B, 30.7 – .203 BABIP and 44.1% GB% (37.8% in 2019) is responsible for the .192 BA. Everything is else was mostly in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 91/30/86/.240/.362/.501/3

146) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 29.1 – Oblique strain ended Soler’s season in early September. Maintained exit velocity gains made in 2019 putting him in near elite territory, but strikeout rate exploded 8.3% to career worst 34.5%. 2021 Projection: 79/32/94/.247/.337/.503/2

147) Jazz Chisholm MIA, SS, 23.2 – Struggled in his 62 PA MLB Debut (.161/.242/.321) but there were some positive signs in the underlying stats, most notably a reasonable 25.7% whiff%. He continued to hit the ball in the air (15.6 degree launch angle), and while exit velocity was below average (87.1 MPH), that will inevitably go up as he averaged a 91.4 MPH exit velocity in 2019 at Double-A. 2021 Projection: May-61/19/56/.236/.307/.418/9 Prime Projection: 83/27/81/.257/.338/.473/12

148) Dylan Bundy LAA, RHP, 28.4 – The breakout that everyone and their 2nd cousin twice removed saw coming, Bundy put up a pitching line of 3.29/1.04/72/17 in 65.2 IP. Exit velocity against dropped to a career best 87 MPH, but 4-seamer velocity is on a 4 year decline to a now career low 90 MPH. 2021 Projection: 11/3.82/1.24/175 in 167 IP

149) Dylan Moore SEA, OF, 28.8 – Power is legit with a 90.4 MPH exit velocity, 95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, and a 17.3 degree launch angle, which he pairs with a not too bad 27.2% Whiff%. I’m concerned the stolen bases will dry up a bit considering a poor 61% career success rate and a falling sprint speed (down 0.7 ft/sec to 27.7). 2021 Projection: 80/24/77/.241/.323/.447/17

150) Hyun Jin Ryu TOR, LHP, 34.0 – Ballpark downgrade? No problem. NL West to AL (Covid adjusted) East? No problem. Ryu kept rolling with a pitching line of 2.69/1.15/72/17 in 67 IP. The only problem he did have was in his one playoff start where Tampa hit him up for 7 earned in 1.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.18/163 in 168 IP

151) Kevin Gausman SF, RHP, 30.3 – Breakout season with a pitching line of 3.62/1.11/79/16 in 59.2 IP. Velocity on 4-seamer bumped up 1.2 MPH to 95.1 MPH, and slings the most valuable splitter in baseball by far, putting up a .150 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 12/3.78/1.25/181 in 168 IP

152) Tyler Mahle CIN, RHP, 26.6 – Breakout year with a pitching line of 3.59/1.15/60/21 in 47.2 IP. K% skyrocketed 6.7% to 29.9%, and it’s backed up by a 10.4% increase in whiff% and spin rate increases of about 200-300 revolutions on his most used pitches (4-seam, slider, splitter). 2021 Projection: 10/3.92/1.29/162 in 152 IP

153) Aaron Civale CLE, RHP, 25.10 – Continued to post well below average exit velocities against (87.1 MPH average and 90.7 MPH FB/LD) while improving his whiff% (up 3.7% to 25%) and BB% (down 2.9% to 5.1%). 2021 Projection: 11/3.88/1.26/157 in 166 IP

154) Alex Kirilloff MIN, 1B/OF, 23.5 – First player to make his Major League debut as a starter in a playoff game, going 1 for 4. Kirilloff is a natural hitter who is poised to hit for both and power and average on the next level, and with Rosario non-tendered, he could get that shot starting from Opening Day. 2021 Projection: 72/20/77/.268/.327/.435/5 Prime Projection: 85/25/93/.280/.343/.477/7

155) Drew Waters ATL, OF, 22.3 – Concerns over free swinging ways has Waters dropping down many lists, but he is an excellent athlete with fantasy friendly upside and has been pushed aggressively in his pro career. He has plus bat control and hits the ball very hard. I’m still in. 2021 Projection: July-38/9/31/.259/.309/.411/8 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.271/.328/.448/15

156) Miguel Sano MIN, 1B, 27.11 – Strikeout rate actually managed to get worse, posting a career worst 43.9% K% leading to a .204 BA, and you can’t blame some of that on poor BABIP luck (.301). 2021 Projection: 86/36/88/.225/.315/.497/0

157) Leody Taveras TEX, OF, 22.7 – The triple-slash (.227/.308/.395) wasn’t very impressive, but there were some very encouraging takeaways in his 33 game MLB debut. He was a perfect 8 for 8 on the bases with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. 10.4% BB%, 88.9 MPH exit velocity and 14.3 degree launch angle are all very strong marks. 32.1% K% is high and 91.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity could use some improvement, but overall there is a lot to be excited about. 2021 Projection: 75/14/58/.243/.311/.401/22 Prime Projection: 82/20/62/.258/.330/.432/25

158) Josh Hader MIL, Closer, 28.0 – Velocity down 1 MPH on the fastball (94.5 MPH) and 1.6 MPH on the slider (80.3) MPH). BB% hit a career worst 12.8%. It all led to a slightly down year with a 3.79 ERA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.22/0.99/105/33 in 68 IP

159) Wil Myers SD, OF, 30.4 – Career year with a .288/.353/.606 triple-slash and 15 homers in 55 games. Strikeout rate bounced back to 25.7% after ballooning to 34.3% in 2019. Only negative was the lack of stolen bases with a mere 3 attempts and career worst 4.41 HP to 1B runtime. 2021 Projection: 81/26/78/.250/.332/.457/10

160) Kyle Schwarber WASH, OF, 28.9 – .219 BABIP is the main culprit for the .188 BA. Exit velocity and launch angle dropped a bit, but considering the shortened season and otherwise strong power and patience numbers, he’s the same low average slugger that he always was. 2021 Projection: 84/32/83/.242/.339/.498/3

161) Will Smith LAD, C, 26.0 – Incredible improvements in K% (down 10.4% to 16.1%) and BB% (up 5.4% to 14.6%), and not only did it not cost him anything in FB/LD exit velocity, but he improved that too with a 2.4 MPH increase to 94.5 MPH. It only came in 37 games due to a time share with Austin Barnes, and he couldn’t maintain those numbers in 18 playoff games (65 wRC+). 2021 Projections: 65/24/69/.263/.348/.498/2

162) Sean Murphy OAK, C, 26.6 – Exit velocity moved into elite territory with a 1.5 MPH increase to 92.2 MPH. Whiff% dropped 4.8% to 25%, BB% mushroomed 7.1% to 17.1%, and launch angle jumped 7.4 degrees to 14.7 degrees. OPS dropped from .899 to .821, but the underlying numbers are telling a different story. A big breakout could be incoming. 2021 Projection: 76/25/73/.253/.340/.482/1

163) Jesse Winker CIN, OF, 27.7 – The long awaited power outbreak finally materialized with 12 homers in 55 games on the back of a 3 MPH increase in exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and 2.5 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity (96 MPH). It came with an 11% increase in whiff% (29%), but the walk rate rose with it to 15.3%. 2021 Projection: 84/25/78/.268/.362/.479/1

164) Alex Verdugo BOS, OF, 24.11 – Strikeout rate jumped 7.4% to 20.4%, but a .371 BABIP kept his BA high (.308). 2.4 MPH drop in exit velocity (87 MPH) is the most concerning thing, because with a 5.9 degree launch angle, he needs to hit the ball very hard to do any real damage on a consistent basis. 2021 Projection: 85/20/71/.276/.335/.450/10

165) Mike Soroka ATL, RHP, 23.8 – Torn right Achilles tendon which required surgery ended Soroka’s season after just 13.2 IP. There is no timetable, but he is expected to be throwing by the time Spring Training starts. 2021 Projection: 9/3.81/1.24/133 in 154 IP

166) Tony Gonsolin LAD, RHP, 26.11 – 4-seeamer velocity jumped 1.5 MPH to 95.1 MPH and upped the whiff% on all of his pitches by a few percentage points en route to an excellent season (2.31/0.84/46/7 in 46.2 IP). If he was guaranteed a rotation spot, he would rank at least 20 spots higher. 2021 Projection: 7/3.76/1.23/120 in 120 IP

167) Tommy Edman STL, 3B/OF/SS, 25.11 – Couldn’t repeat his 2019 breakout with most of the underlying numbers coming in at slightly worse levels in 2020. Nothing was completely out of character, other than raising his BB% 2.4% to 7%, so I’m expecting a bit of a rebound in 2021. 2021 Projection: 79/14/71/.276/.332/.418/16

168) Andres Gimenez CLE, SS, 22.7 – Solid MLB debut, slashing .263/.333/.398 with 3 homers, 8 steals, and a 21.2%/5.3% K%/BB% in 132 PA. Speed is legit with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed, but power is questionable with a 86.8/89.9 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 75/12/55/.259/.324/.391/22 Prime Projection: 86/15/59/.274/.338/.417/24

169) Dominic Smith NYM, 1B/OF, 25.10 – Power broke out with 10 homers in 50 games on the back of a 3.1 MPH increase in FB/LD exit velocity. Playing time could still be tight, but if he keeps mashing, NY will have no choice but to play him everyday. 2021 Projection: 76/24/84/.266/.330/.471/1

170) Kyle Hendricks CHC, RHP, 31.4 – Hendrick’s pinpoint control somehow managed to actually get better with a league leading mark of 0.9 BB/9. He doesn’t strike many out (7.1 K/9) but his exit velocity against is consistently among the best in the league (86.2 MPH). 2021 Projection: 13/3.62/1.18/148 in 175 IP

171) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 21.3 – Got rave reviews at alt camp with his mature approach and murdering of baseballs. Rumor has it that Casas was drilled by a Tanner Houck pitch, refused to take first base, and then smashed a homer off him … Stuff of legend … but also makes you wonder what kind of baseball was being played at these alt sites. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/30/92/.263/.345/.505/3

172) Tommy Pham SD, OF, 33.1 -Got stabbed in the lower back at a strip club parking club in October and required emergency surgery to close the wound. He’s suing the strip club for “catastrophic injuries,” but it’s unclear how much the injury will effect him long term. A fractured hamate bone limited him to 31 games in 2020. Surface stats were mediocre (.624 OPS), but the underlying numbers looked much better and were in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 80/20/71/.264/.358/.446/15

173) Eduardo Rodriguez BOS, LHP, 28.0 – Missed all of 2020 after testing positive for Covid in early July which eventually caused myocarditis (inflammation of the heart). The expectation is for him to have a normal off-season and be a full go for 2021. 2021 Projection: 11/3.89/1.29/166 in 160 IP

174) Cristian Javier HOU, RHP, 24.0 – Strong MLB debut, putting up a pitching line of 3.48/0.99/54/18 in 54.1 IP. Induced weak contact with a 86.9 MPH exit velocity against, which was mostly due a 75.9 MPH exit velo against on his slider (.146 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 9/3.90/1.27/153 in 145 IP

175) Mike Yastrzemski SF, OF, 30.7 – At worst he proved the 2019 breakout was no fluke, and at best he took his game to an even higher level. BB% skyrocketed 5.5% to 13.3% and K% dropped 1.6% to 24.4%. Continued to hit for power with 10 homers and a 18.4 degree launch angle in 54 games. 2021 Projection: 85/25/79/.262/.340/.481/6

176) Paul DeJong STL, SS, 27.8 – Got caught up in the Cardinals Covid outbreak, testing positive in early August. Hit only 3 homers in 45 games, but with a 21.7 degree launch angle and 93.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity some of that can be attributed to bad luck, further evidenced by an out of character 6.4% FB/LD%. Whiff% rose 8.1% to a career worst 32.3% and sprint speed dropped to a career low 26.5 ft/sec, but considering the Covid and all the doubleheaders the Cardinals had to play, I’m not giving it too much stock . 2021 Projection: 82/26/84/.244/.320/.456/5

177) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 28.4 – Poor defense could move him off catcher in the near future. Continues to display elite exit velocity (99 MPH FB/LD), but the contact issues are getting worse with a career high 36% K%. BABIP was hilariously low (.159) and whiff% didn’t increase nearly as much (1.7% jump to 34%), so I do believe a bounce back is in order. 2021 Projection: 67/30/81/.226/.315/.507/0

178) Nate Lowe TEX, 1B, 25.9 – Just when you thought the real life value of blocked corner only power bats were at an all time low, Tampa pulls a rabbit out of their hat landing a premium prospect haul for Lowe. Every other team manages to find these guys for little or nothing. Dynasty value is a different story with Lowe now ticketed for a full time job. His power and patience have translated to the majors with 11 homers and a 9% BB% in 245 career MLB PA, but the hit tool hasn’t with a 31.8% K%. 2021 Projection: 78/25/81/.256/.341/.464/1

179) Brennen Davis CHC, OF, 21.5 – Reports from alternate camp were that it took Davis some time to make adjustments to upper level pitching and their ability to locate secondary pitches. The power and athleticism are evident, so continuing to mature at the dish will be necessary to reach his considerable ceiling. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/26/89/.262/.337/.470/13

180) Brandon Marsh LAA, OF, 23.4 – Groundball hitter with a plus power/speed combo and plus plate approach. Built off his 2nd half breakout in 2019 by dominating at alternate camp “in every capacity.” 2021 Projection: July-34/9/30/.251/.327/.432/7 Prime Projection: 86/23/78/.272/.348/.459/16

181) Tarik Skubal DET, LHP, 24.4 – The long ball was Skubal’s downfall with a 21 degree launch angle and 95.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity against which led to 9 homers in 32 IP. 37/11 K/BB was strong, and his stuff was as advertised with a 94.4 MPH fastball that he threw 58.9% of the time. 2021 Projection: 7/4.11/1.30/150 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.77/1.23/196 in 179 IP

182) Jonathan Villar NYM, 2B/SS, 29.11 – Expected to fill a super utility role with New York. Career low exit velocity (2.2 MPH drop to 86.7 MPH) led to a .232/.301/.292 triple-slash. Sprint speed also hit a career low (27.1 ft/sec), but it didn’t effect his stolen base totals much as he stole 16 bags in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 69/13/61/.254/.326/.408/26

183) Jared Walsh LAA, 1B, 27.8 – Was smoking hot to close the season in September, slashing .337/.368/.744 with 9 homers and a 13/5 K/BB in 95 PA. Posted a 13.9% K% on the season, but his 22.8% whiff% shows that likely isn’t sustainable, although it is still a big improvement on the 32.4% whiff% he put up in 2019. Exit velocity numbers were good, but not off the charts with an 88.1 MPH average and 93.6 MPH on FB/LD. 2021 Projection: 69/25/81/.262/.326/.473/1

184) Trey Mancini BAL, 1B/OF, 29.0 – Mancini says he is back to his normal self after having a malignant tumor removed in his colon and completing chemotherapy in September. His normal self was pretty damn good at baseball in 2019 with an improved plate approach and GB% that led to a .291/.364/.535 triple-slash and 35 homers. 2021 Projection: 81/26/77/.270/.341/.473/1

185) Vidal Brujan TB, 2B, 23.2 – No clear path to playing time in Tampa’s perpetual logjam, but these things usually work themselves out with trades, injuries and/or underperformance. 80 grade speed and the willingness to use it gives Brujan the potential to compete for the stolen base crown year after year. 2021 Projection: 32/4/26/.264/.328/.382/9 Prime Projection: 87/13/51/.281/.340/.418/37

186) Aaron Bracho CLE, SS, 19.11 – As one of the youngest players at Cleveland’s alternate camp, team officials came away impressed by Bracho’s maturity and ability to hold his own against more advanced pitching. He became one of my favorite prospects last off-season after showing a great feel to hit (15.3% K%), an advanced plate approach (16.8% BB%) and plus power potential (6 homers and a 51.8% FB% in 30 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 87/26/88/.274/.351/.481/9

187) Noelvi Marte SEA, OF, 19.6 – Struggled early at alternate camp, which was to be expected considering he has never even played stateside in the minors, but was impressing by the end of it by cutting down on strikeouts and stinging the ball much harder. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 84/25/82/.263/.334/.473/15

188) Riley Greene DET, OF, 20.6 – After ripping up OG MLB Spring Training (.417/.611/.917), he then went on to continue turning heads at alt camp and instructs. Greene is an all around hitter who did everything he could do to impress in 2020. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/25/89/.276/.348/.483/9

189) Matt Manning DET, RHP, 23.3 – Shut down in late August with a slight forearm strain but is said to be 100% now. Manning’s a strikeout machine who made strides with control and command in 2019. 2021 Projection: 5/4.18/1.34/126 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.69/1.23/206 in 183 IP

190) Mike Clevinger SD, RHP, 30.3 – San Diego dropped the old “do you want the good news or the bad news first?” on us in November when they tweeted out, “The Padres have signed RHP Mike Clevinger to a two-year contract through the 2022 season … Clevinger will also undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday.” 2021 Projection: OUT

191) Jeff McNeil NYM, OF/2B, 29.0 – Gave back all of the power gains he made in 2019 with exit velocity dropping 2.4 MPH to 86.6 MPH. Continues to make contact at elite rates (11.5% K%). 2021 Projection: 83/18/75/.302/.375/.467/6

192) Edwin Diaz NYM, Closer, 27.0 – Got back to dominating after a disappointing 2019 with a 1.75 ERA, 17.53 K/9, and 97.8 MPH heat. BB% spiked to a career worst 12.7%, so it wasn’t all roses. 2021 Projection: 4/3.21/1.16/101/30 in 65 IP

193) Nick Solak TEX, 2B/OF, 26.2 – Above average contact rates (19.1% Whiff%), above average exit velocity (89.9 MPH) and above average sprint speed (28.6 ft/sec) is a very nice foundation of skills to work with. It didn’t result in a great 2020 (77 wRC+), but it portends good things for the future. 2021 Projection: 80/18/72/.274/.336/.437/14

194) Clint Frazier NYY, OF, 26.7 – BB% mushroomed 9.1% to 15.6% and continued to hit for power with 8 homers and a career high 89.4 MPH exit velocity in 39 games. Defense improved in 2020 which he will have to keep up if he wants to lock down long term playing time. 2021 Projection: 75/25/83/.253/.339/.482/7

195) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF, 26.9 – Rib cage strain ended Benintendi’s season after a terrible 14 games (.442 OPS). Sample is too small to read into, but if you did read into it, it wouldn’t be a good read. 2021 Projection: 82/17/76/.267/.338/.428/8

196) Brendan Rodgers COL, SS/2B, 23.7 – Right shoulder capsule strain ended Rodgers season in late August, which is the same shoulder that required labrum surgery in July 2019. He is expected to be a full go by Spring Training, and with Arenado traded, his outlook for playing time just got a whole lot better. 2021 Projection: 73/22/71/.250/.316/.442/6 Prime Projection: 81/27/88/.272/.331/.473/7

197) Salvador Perez KC, C, 30.11 – Came back from March 2019 Tommy John surgery in style, slashing .333/.353/.633 with 11 homers in 37 games. .375 BABIP definitely juiced up that line, and he notched slight career worsts in K% (23.1%) and BB% (1.9%), but the overall takeaway is that he is back to his normal self. 2021 Projection: 59/27/79/.258/.297/.463/1

198) Dustin May LAD, RHP, 23.7 – Stuff got even nastier with a major uptick in velocity on all of his pitches except the changeup, but it didn’t help his strikeout rate as it dropped to 19.6%. Bauer signing moves him out of the rotation. 2021 Projection: 5/3.87/1.22/79 in 95 IP

199) Randal Grichuk TOR, OF, 29.8 – Notched a career best 21.2% K% while fully maintaining all of his power (12 homers and a 95.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 66/26/73/.251/.304/.480/2

200) Marcus Stroman NYM, RHP, 29.11 – Opted out of the 2020 season. Stroman’s a groundball pitcher with a six pitch mix, relying mainly on his 92.5 MPH sinker. Slider is his best swing and miss pitch (35.3% whiff%). 2021 Projection: 11/3.81/1.28/162 in 173 IP

201) Adrian Morejon SD, LHP, 22.1 – The 4.66 ERA in 19.1 IP wasn’t great, but everything else was with a 31.6% K%, 5.1% BB%, 86.7 exit velocity against, 46% GB%, and 96.6 MPH heat. Splitter and slider put a 57.1% K% and 47.6% K%, respectively. 2021 Projection: 6/4.04/1.27/104 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.69/1.20/184 in 171 IP

202) David Dahl TEX, OF, 27.0 – Can’t shake the injury bug. A lower back injury and a shoulder strain which required surgery in late September limited Dahl to 24 unimpressive games (.470 OPS). I know it’s getting frustrating, but many real life teams have made the mistake of giving up too early on talented players still in the prime of their career. Don’t make the same mistake. 2021 Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.319/.467/8

203) Cristian Pache ATL, OF, 22.5 – Wasn’t able to do very much damage in 29 PA including the playoffs (.192 BA), but a 21% K% and 10% BB% shows he wasn’t completely overmatched. Plus CF defense will keep him on the field, but you might have to wait a few years for Pache to become an impact player on the offensive side. 2021 Projection: 73/14/65/.253/.311/.394/11 Prime Projection: 86/21/79/.273/.338/.451/17

204) Orelvis Martinez TOR, SS, 19.7 – Did nothing but mash homers in instructional league play and at the alternative camp site. He did the same in 2019 in stateside rookie ball as a 17-year-old. He swings a quick bat, makes good contact, has an advanced plate approach for his age, and plus power potential. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 86/29/95/.273/.347/.503/4

205) Daniel Lynch KC, LHP, 24.4 – Focused on refining his delivery and found a new and improved changeup grip at alternate camp. Refining those two aspects of his game gives him the chance to turn into a true ace with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider already in tow. 2021 Projection: 4/4.18/1.32/91 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.61/1.21/187 in 175 IP

206) Zac Veen COL, OF, 19.4 – Selected 9th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’4”, 190 pound Veen has a lightening quick lefty swing with natural loft. His patient plate approach, good feel to hit, and at least plus power potential gives him the ingredients to turn into a heart of the order beast. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/28/93/.270/.342/.494/10

207) Austin Riley ATL, 3B, 24.0 – Whiff% dropped 8.6% to 30.1%, BB% increased 2.4% to 7.8% and exit velocity increased 1.6 MPH to 91 MPH. On the other hand, launch angle fell 7 degrees to 13.6 and he was a disaster in 49 postseason AB (28 wRC+). 2021 Projection: 69/25/81/.252/.321/.473/1

208) Josh Donaldson MIN, 3B, 35.4 – Injury bug popped back up as a strained right calf limited Donaldson to 28 games. He looked like himself in those games, but this is the 3rd time in 4 years he’s had to miss significant time with injury. 2021 Projection: 88/31/84/.248/.359/.502/2

209) Nelson Cruz MIN, DH, 40.9 – The ageless wonder. Dominated again with a .303 BA and 16 homers in 53 games. His exit velocity did reach a career low 91.6 MPH, down 2.1 MPH from 2019, and whiff% hit a career high 34.2%, so maybe those are the first signs of decline. 2021 Projection: 82/35/96/.264/.357/.532/1

210) Zack Greinke HOU, RHP, 37.5 – Velocity tanked 2 MPH on the 4-seamer to 87.9 MPH and ERA jumped up to 4.03. The underlying numbers were in line with career norms, and a 3.51 xFIP/3.70 xERA shows he can still be effective even at that reduced velocity. 2021 Projection: 13/3.78/1.18/175 in 183 IP

211) Charlie Morton ATL, RHP, 37.6 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Morton to a mediocre 38 IP (4.74 ERA). Velocity dropped for the 2nd year in a row to 93.4 MPH. Pitched much better during the playoffs with a 2.70 ERA and increased velocity, so while age related decline is a major issue, the skills are still in there. 2021 Projection: 11/3.69/1.22/188 in 165 IP

212) Andrew Heaney LAA, LHP, 29.10 – Provides strong strikeout numbers, and while he hasn’t had that breakout season yet, he’s underperformed his underlying numbers for the past 3 seasons. With a little luck, 2021 could be the year. 2021 Projection: 10/3.96/1.27/173 in 166 IP

213) Pablo Lopez MIA, RHP, 25.1 – K% increased 4.3% to 24.6% and exit velocity against was among the best in the league at a career best 85.7 MPH. Added a cutter to the arsenal, and while he didn’t use it often (8.4%), it immediately turned into his most effective pitch with a .169 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 10/3.93/1.26/148 in 159 IP

214) Liam Hendricks CHW, Closer, 32.2 – Proved the 2019 breakout was legit, posting an identical 13.1 K/9 with a 96 MPH and two secondaries (slider and curve) that are untouchable. 2021 Projection: 4/2.78/0.98/96/36 in 71 IP

215) Jake Cronenworth SD, SS/2B/1B, 27.2 – Power is the only thing in question with a 91.5 MPH FB/LD exit velocity and only 4 homers in 54 games, but the strong average exit velocity (89.8 MPH) and decent launch angle (10.5 degrees) shows there could be more in the tank. What’s not in question is his plus hitting ability (16.7% Whiff%), plate approach (9.4% BB%) and speed (28.7 ft/sec spring speed). 2021 Projection: 81/16/70/.275/.343/.421/14

216) Jorge Polanco MIN, SS, 27.9 – Gave back most of the power gains he made in 2019 with a 1.5 MPH decrease in exit velocity to 86.6 MPH. 2021 Projection: 84/16/70/.282/.338/.443/7

217) Michael Brantley HOU, OF, 32.11 – Whiff% jumped 5.8% to a career worst 16.4%, which took him from the 99th percentile to the 93rd percentile, so still pretty damn good. Attempted only 2 steals in 46 games, so hopes for a stolen base rebound seem slim. 2021 Projection: 83/20/86/.286/.349/.465/6

218) Mike Moustakas CIN, 2B/1B, 32.6 – Improved walk rate for the 2nd year in a row to a now very strong 11%. 2021 Projection: 78/32/87/.243/.327/.490/3

219) JD Davis NYM, 3B, 27.11 – Launch angle dropped 7.3 degrees to a meager 3.3, and with it went his power with only 6 homers in 56 games. He still hit the ball very hard (90.1 MPH), and he upped his walk rate 5.1% to 13.5%, so the ingredients for a breakout are there if he can get the launch angle back up. 2021 Projection: 79/21/75/.263/.342/.459/2

220) JJ Bleday MIA, OF, 23.5 – Reports from alternate camp and instructs praised Bleday for showing up in excellent shape, dropping 15 pounds without losing any power. He was a better athlete, had more speed, and was better in the outfield. He also continued to display his all around hitting ability. 2021 Projection: July-32/9/36/.252/.322/.441/2 Prime Projection: 82/26/88/.268/.340/.471/6

221) Trevor Larnach MIN, OF, 24.1 – Showed off his at least plus raw power at alternate camp, although he has yet to fully tap into it in the minors with high groundball rates and modest power numbers (13 homers in 127 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2019). If you hit the ball hard enough, and Larnach certainly hits is hard, you don’t need an extreme launch angle to put up big time power numbers. 2021 Projection: August-13/5/16/.242/.320/.436/1 Prime Projection: 77/26/87/.263/.341/.481/5

222) Casey Mize DET, RHP, 23.11 – Got rocked in his MLB debut with a pitching line of 6.99/1.48/26/13 in 28.1 IP. Throws a 5 pitch mix in which his 4-seamer was his only effective pitch. 2021 Projection: 6/4.33/1.35/135 in 140 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.73/1.20/184 in 182 IP

223) Yasmani Grandal CHW, C, 32.5 – Strikeout rate rose to a career high 29.9%, but it was in a 46 game sample and isn’t so far out of line with the rest of his career. Power and patience remained strong. 2021 Projection: 74/25/73/.238/.359/.457/2

224) Ha-Seong Kim SD, SS/3B, 25.5 – At 5’9”, 167 pounds, Kim has been one of the best players in the KBO since he was 19 years old. He took his game to the next level in 2020, slashing .306/.397/.523 with 30 homers, 23 steals, and a 68/75 K/BB in 138 games. He has a relatively safe floor with the ability to contribute in every category, and there is some nice upside too if the stats can translate better than expected. 2021 Projection: 79/19/71/.271/.337/.440/13

225) Nick Gonzales PIT, 2B/SS, 21.10 – Selected 7th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 5’10”, 190 pound Gonzales put up insane numbers in an extreme hitter’s environment at New Mexico State, rocking 12 homers with a .448 BA and 10/21 K/BB in 16 games before the season got shutdown. He performed well in the wood bat Cape League too with 7 homers, a .351 BA and a 22/20 K/BB in 42 games. He has one of the best hit tools in the draft and while he isn’t projected for huge homer or steal totals, he should be an all category stat stuffer. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/74/.281/.348/.456/9

226) Asa Lacy KC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 4th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Lacy is a 6’4” lefty with a nasty mid 90’s fastball and two potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. His only 4 starts in 2020 were absolutely dominant with a 0.75 ERA and 46/8 K/BB in 24 IP. Walk rates were high in college with a 4.0 BB/9 in 152 IP, but his control/command is better than that number indicates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.66/1.23/209 in 183 IP

227) Forrest Whitley HOU, RHP, 23.6 – Was shut down from throwing in early August after feeling arm discomfort during summer camp and again at alternate camp. He battled shoulder inflammation in 2019. This is the life of a pitching prospect. 2021 Projection: 4/4.31/1.37/105 in 98 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.26/181 in 160 IP

228) Drew Smyly ATL, LHP, 31.10 – A left index finger strain limited Smyly to 26.1 IP. Velocity and spin rate spiked on all of his pitches and it resulted in a career high 34.7% whiff% and a 3.42 ERA. 2021 Projection: 10/3.81/1.23/168 in 150 IP

229) Rowdy Tellez TOR, 1B, 26.0 – Brought K% down 12.7% to 15.7% while maintaining strong power numbers (8 homers and a 95.9 MPH FB/LD exit velo in 35 games). The strikeout numbers should pull back a bit with a 23.5% whiff%, but he put up good contact numbers in the minors too, so the breakout looks mostly real to me. 2021 Projection: 63/20/68/.263/.331/.482/1

230) Carter Kieboom WASH, 3B, 23.7 – Struggled for the 2nd year in a row, except the encouraging 90.9 MPH exit velocity in 2019 dropped to a discouraging 85.1 MPH in 2020. He’s logged only 165 MLB PA, so we’re a long way off from putting the bust label on him. 2021 Projection: 71/19/74/.257/.322/.439/3 Prime Projection: 85/24/82/.275/.342/.468/5

231) Alek Thomas ARI, OF, 20.11 – Reports were all positive from alt camp. Thomas is an excellent athlete with underrated power and has shown an advanced plate approach so far in his young professional career. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/21/77/.268/.337/.442/19

232) Spencer Howard PHI, RHP, 24.8 – Shoulder stiffness limited Howard’s MLB debut to 24.1 IP where he put up a pitching line of 5.92/1.64/23/10. Stuff looked very good with a 94 MPH fastball and 3 quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). 2021 Projection: 9/4.24/1.35/147 in 145 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.76/1.23/181 in 172 IP

233) Pete-Crow Armstrong NYM, OF, 19.0 -Selected 19th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Armstrong stands out for his plus speed, plus defense, and strong track record of hitting. Power hasn’t been a big part of his game, but he has recently added muscle onto his projectable 6’1” frame, and a 99 MPH mark at a 2019 Perfect Game event is damn good. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/19/73/.274/.340/.439/19

234) Max Meyer MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 3rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’0”, 196 pound Meyer is an excellent athlete with an elite fastball/slider combo and a changeup that has the ability to develop into a legitimate third pitch. There is some bullpen risk, but we’ve seen predominantly two pitch starters given the chance to start of late and thrive. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.74/1.22/190 in 172 IP

235) Marco Gonzales SEA, LHP, 29.1 – Career year with a pitching line of 3.10/0.95/64/7 in 69.2 IP. K% increased 6.1% to a career high 23.1%, but whiff% only increased 1.6% to 19.7%, meaning the strikeout gains might not be sustainable. Relatively low .263 BABIP, 4.13 xFIP and 3.84 xERA is why I called it a “career year,” and not a breakout. 2021 Projection: 12/3.78/1.26/150 in 170 IP

236) Sandy Alcantara MIA, RHP, 25.7 – Covid limited Alcantara to 7 starts. Throws one of the most valuable sinkers in the game to go along with 4 other about average pitches (4-seamer, curve, change, slider). 2021 Projection: 8/4.09/1.31/156 in 174 IP

237) James Karinchak CLE, Closer, 25.7 – Throws two pitches and both are elite with his curveball posting a 56.3% whiff% and fastball clocking in at 95.5 MPH with a .228 xwOBA. It resulted in a 48.6% K%, but it also comes with major control issues (14.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 3/3.31/1.21/92/31 in 60 IP

238) Aroldis Chapman NYY, Closer, 33.1 – Covid limited Chapman to 16.1 IP including the playoffs, and he looked like his normal dominant self in those innings. 2021 Projection: 3/3.02/1.11/85/34 in 58 IP

239) Corey Kluber NYY, RHP, 35.0 – Shut down for the season after a single inning with a grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in the back of his right shoulder. He missed most of 2019 with a fractured right elbow and strained oblique. Overpowering velocity has never been a big part of his game, so if he can get healthy enough to stay on the mound, I believe in his ability to stay effective even with diminished stuff. 2021 Projection: 9/3.88/1.24/140 in 140 IP

240) James Paxton FA, LHP, 32.5 – Flexor strain in left arm ended Paxton’s season after a poor 20.1 IP (6.64 ERA). He was coming off back surgery in February and the stuff didn’t look the same with a severe 3.3 MPH drop in velocity to 92.1 MPH. The strikeout ability was still there with 26 K’s, so he isn’t a bad bounce back pick if the price is right. 2021 Projection: 9/3.97/1.29/172 in 145 IP

241) Willson Contreras CHC, C, 28.11 – Raised launch angle 1.6 degrees to 9.1, which is a step in the right direction. Exit velocity also hit a career high of 89.8 MPH. On the whole, everything stayed pretty stable for Contreras. 2021 Projection: 64/22/66/.263/.345/.465/2

242) Didi Gregorius PHI, SS, 31.3 – Bounced back from a down 2019, slashing .284/.339/.488 with 10 homers, 3 steals, and a career best 11.8% K% in 60 games. Exit velocity dropped 4.4 MPH to a career worst 83.8 MPH, but FB/LD exit velocity stayed within career norms at 90.2 MPH, so I’m inclined to think it is mostly a small sample aberration. 2021 Projection: 75/24/83/.271/.328/.457/6

243) Willie Calhoun TEX, OF, 26.5 – Fractured his jaw on March 8th after being hit in the face by a Julio Urias mid-90’s fastball. He couldn’t get mentally right after that and it resulted in a disastrous season (.491 OPS in 29 games). His K% (15.7%) and exit velocity (89.3 MPH) were still strong, so some of the struggles look to be poor luck as well. With the full off-season to get his head right, I’m expecting that plus contact/power combo to shine. 2021 Projection: 74/26/83/.267/.326/.469/0

244) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 21.4 – Worked on becoming more of a “pitcher” at alt camp going against more advanced competition, but it’s still the 95+ MPH fastball with good control that gets you most excited. Plus slider, above average change, and above average curve rounds out the arsenal. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.78/1.19/196 in 180 IP

245) Michael Kopech CHW, RHP, 24.11 – Opted out of the 2020 season but is supposedly fully ready to go for 2021. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery in September 2018, so while the stuff is absolutely electric, it’s been a minute since he’s pitched in official games. 2021 Projection: June-5/4.32/1.35/110 in 100 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.26/193 in 176 IP

246) Emerson Hancock SEA, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 6th overall, Hancock is a 6’4” righty with plus command of a mid 90’s fastball and plus changeup. Slider is inconsistent and will be the key to reaching his full potential. Watching some of his better starts makes you want to place him as the top overall pitcher in first year player drafts, but the consistency hasn’t been there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.20/186 in 178 IP

247) Ryan Mountcastle BAL, OF/1B, 24.1 – Strong MLB debut with a .333/.386/.492 triple-slash, 5 homers, and a 21.4%/7.9% K%/BB%. BABIP was high (.398) and exit velocity was mediocre (87.4 MPH), so the underlying numbers weren’t quite as encouraging as the surface stats. 2021 Projection: 72/22/81/.268/.320/.447/3

248) Jordan Groshans TOR, SS, 21.5 – Struggled early at alternate camp, but impressed team officials with his resiliency and focus, going on to lead all Toronto hitters with 6 homers. Groshans is an all around good hitter who can use the whole field, and at 6’3”, 205 pounds, will only continue to grow into more power. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 80/24/87/.267/.341/.471/6

249) Brandon Nimmo NYM, OF, 28.0 – K% dropped 8.9% to a career best 19.1% en route to a career best .280 BA. Gets a big bump in OBP leagues with a career .390 OBP. 2021 Projection: 83/18/74/.267/.396/.451/6

250) Justin Turner FA, 3B, 36.4 – Whiff% jumped 3.4% to a career worst 20.5%, sprint speed dropped 0.7 ft/sec to a career low 25.4 ft/sec, and ISO dropped to a 6 year low of .153. Exit velocity and K/BB numbers were still strong, but there are some signs of decline. 2021 Projection: 77/23/75/.292/.383/.502/2

251) German Marquez COL, RHP, 26.1 – Coors continues to do what it does by absolutely destroying the ERA of talented hurlers. Marquez put a 5.68 ERA at home and 2.06 ERA on the road. Start him at Coors at your own risk. 2021 Projection: 11/4.08/1.28/178 in 183 IP

252) Brian Anderson MIA, 3B, 27.10 – Surface stats (11 homers and .810 OPS in 59 games) looked much better than the underlying numbers. Exit velocity dropped 2.5 MPH to 87.4 MPH and whiff% skyrocketed 7% to a career worst 34.4%. 2021 Projection: 73/23/82/.252/.341/.446/3

253) Jameson Taillon NYY, RHP, 29.4 – Missed all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2019. Rehab is going well and is expected to be a full go for 2021. Taillon is a hard thrower with good ratios but doesn’t put up huge K totals. 2021 Projection: 8/4.02/1.27/138 in 150 IP

254) Willy Adames TB, SS, 25.7 – Continued to post solid but unspectacular numbers, slashing .259/.332/.481 with 8 homers and 2 steals. Underlying numbers tell a slightly different story with an increase in power (FB/LD exit velocity up 3.1 MPH to 96.1 MPH) and major surge in strikeouts (36.1%.) 2021 Projection: 72/22/67/.251/.331/.438/5

255) Brailyn Marquez CHC, LHP, 22.2 – 0.2 inning MLB debut was a disaster with 5 ER, 3 walks and 1 strikeout, but more importantly the stuff was nasty with a 97.9 MPH fastball, 84.1 MPH slider, and 90.8 MPH changeup. Alternative camp reports had the changeup showing improvement, so if true, it gives him a legitimate third pitch. He’s still more pure stuff than refinement, but it seems like he took a step in the right direction in 2020. 2021 Projection: 2/4.31/1.37/47 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.71/1.27/185 in 171 IP

256) George Kirby SEA, RHP, 23.2 – Fastball was consistently hitting the high 90’s at instructs, which is very dangerous considering he has some of the best command over the pitch in the minors. 2021 Projection: 2/4.33/1.28/47 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.79/1.19/184 in 176 IP

257) Nick Madrigal CHW, 2B, 24.1 – Played true to form in his MLB debut with a .340 BA, 6.4% K%, and 0 homers in 29 games. He only stole 2 bases on 3 attempts, and his 28 ft/sec sprint speed is good but not eye popping, but maybe the underwhelming speed numbers had something to do with separating his shoulder just 5 games into his debut. The injury was bad enough to need surgery, which he underwent in October 2020 with a 5-6 month timetable. 2021 Projection: 74/5/66/.304/.348/.382/19

258) Garrett Hampson COL, OF/2B, 26.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction with a 5.7% increase to 32.6% and continues to post a below average exit velocity (86.3 MPH). He’s very fast, but not making contact very often and not hitting it all that hard when you do is not a combo. 2021 Projection: 69/5/51/.251/.314/.398/18

259) Hunter Bishop SF, OF, 22.9 – Reports from alternative camp praised Bishop’s improvements in plate approach and most importantly, his swing and miss tendencies. He’s a great athlete with a plus power/speed combo, so if the reports can be trusted, he took a step in the right direction this year. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/26/81/.258/.343/.469/13

260) Luis Matos SF, OF, 19.2 – Here is Matos smacking a dinger at instructs. It is a continuation of him showing more power than expected in his pro debut with 7 homers in 55 games. He’s also shown a good feel to hit and plus speed, giving him the makings of an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 84/23/78/.272/.336/.453/14

261) Logan Gilbert SEA, RHP, 23.11 – Pounds the strike zone with a plus fastball and 3 quality secondaries (slider, curve, change). Gets elite extension at 6’6”, 225 pounds, helping all of his pitches play up. 2021 Projection: 4/4.28/1.29/84 in 88 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.75/1.23/191 in 182 IP

262) Tommy La Stella SF, 2B/1B, 32.2 – Elite contact rates with a career best 5.3% K%, and BB% jumped 5.6% to 11.8%. Couldn’t maintain the 2019 homer breakout due to a below average 90.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 83/19/72/.289/.360/.456/1

263) Eric Hosmer SD, 1B, 31.5 – Fractured left index finger limited Hosmer to 38 games. Finally dragged his launch angle off the ground to a not terrible 8.7 degrees, and it resulted in a monster power outbreak with 9 homers and a career high .231 ISO. 2021 Projection: 77/24/88/.272/.330/.457/5

264) Hunter Dozier KC, 1B/OF, 29.7 – Tested positive for Covid right before the season began and his exit velocity dropped off a cliff when he returned, plummeting 4.7 MPH to 86.4 MPH. He still managed to stay effective even with the power outage (14.5% BB% and a 104 wRC+), so everything is in place for him to build on his 2019 breakout assuming the power returns. 2021 Projection: 79/22/78/.255/.341/.451/7

265) Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 26.5 – Oblique injury ended his season on September 4th. K% dropped 6% to 15.2%, but whiff% actually increased 4.4% to 25.6%, so the K% gains were likely a mirage. Raised launch angle to 24.7 degrees, but relatively weak 92.1 MPH makes me hesitant to completely buy into the power outbreak (11 homers in 37 games). 2021 Projection: 71/25/84/.255/.309/.460/2

266) Aaron Hicks NYY, OF, 31.6 – Walk rate spiked to a career high 19.4% and strikeout rate dropped back to career norms (18%) after jumping to 28.2% in 2019. Exit velocity was strong with a 88.2 MPH average exit velocity and 93.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, which is nice to see coming off Tommy John surgery in October 2019. 2021 Projection: 84/25/77/.244/.359/.453/7

267) AJ Pollock LAD, OF, 33.4 – Was on pace to shatter his career high in homers with 16 bombs in 55 games, and while the underlying power numbers were good, there wasn’t any big changes to suggest that is even close to a sustainable pace. 2021 Projection: 75/24/76/.262/.321/.475/8

268) Mark Canha OAK, OF, 31.1 – Power took a small step back with a 1.9 MPH decrease in exit velocity to 92.4 MPH, resulting in only 5 homers in 59 games. Average exit velocity was still strong at 89.7 MPH, as was launch angle with a 19.4 degree mark, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. 2021 Projection: 82/25/80/.256/.358/.471/6

269) Christian Walker ARI, 1B, 30.0 – Poor defense at 1B makes job security a major issue. Surface stats didn’t look quite as nice in 2020 (.792 OPS) as they did in 2019 (.825 OPS), but the underlying numbers backed up the 2019 breakout. 2021 Projection: 76/24/74/.253/.334/.452/3

270) Hunter Renfroe BOS, OF, 29.2 – BA bottomed out to .156, and while his K% decreased 4.6% to 26.6%, his whiff% actually increased 1.5% to 32.1%. The power was as good as ever with 8 homers, a 96.1 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, and 17.3 degree launch angle. 2021 Projection: 67/28/79/.233/.300/.476/4

271) Zach Davies CHC, RHP, 28.2 – Career year with a pitching line of 2.73/1.07/63/19 in 69.1 IP. K% increased 7.6% to a career high 22.8%, but even with the strikeout gains, xFIP (4.14) and xERA (5.01) were not buying into the surface stats. 2021 Projection: 11/3.85/1.27/148 in 170 IP

272) Griffin Canning LAA, RHP, 24.11 – Velocity down 1.1 MPH to 92.8 MPH, K% down 1.5% to 23.5%, exit velocity up 1 MPH to 88.9 MPH, and BB% up 2.9% to 9.7%. In other words, everything was just a little bit worse than in 2019. 2021 Projection: 9/4.11/1.31/152 in 153 IP

273) Elieser Hernandez MIA, RHP, 25.11 – Right lat strain ended his season after 25.2 IP, but it was an impressive 25.2 IP, putting up a pitching line of 3.16/1.01/34/5. Velocity hit a career high 91.3 MPH as did his K% (32.1%) and BB% (4.7%). 91.8 MPH exit velocity against shows there was some positive luck at play, 2021 Projection: 7/4.08/1.26/148 in 145 IP

274) Jurickson Profar SD, 2B/OF, 28.1 – Hasn’t met the expectations that his elite prospect pedigree put on him, but Profar has settled into being a solid player with good contact skills (13.9% K%) and a moderate power speed combo (7 homers and 7 steals in 56 games). 2021 Projection: 75/20/69/.271/.335/.430/10

275) Scott Kingery PHI, 2B, 26.11 – Couldn’t build on a solid 2019. BABIP (.200) and exit velocity (85.3 MPH) both tanked leading to an awful season (.511 OPS). 2021 Projection: 68/20/61/.248/.311/.428/12

276) Evan White SEA, 1B, 25.1 – Has been working on tapping into his raw power since the end of 2018, and he was successful at that with a 91.7 MPH exit velocity (96.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity) and 8 homers in 54 games in his MLB debut, but he may have went a bit too far as his K% soared to 41.6% (.176 BA). 2021 Projection: 71/24/78/.242/.311/.428/5

277) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 38.1 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2021. If any 38 year old can successfully recover from Tommy John surgery and return to form, it’s Verlander. 2021 Projection: OUT

278) Yasiel Puig FA, OF, 30.4 – Missed all of 2020 after testing positive for Covid in mid July. Was reportedly going to sign with Atlanta before the positive test, but had the season started on time his free agency was almost sure to bleed into the season. I would be cautious until he officially signs. Fool me once … 2021 Projection: 75/25/81/.264/.329/.468/13

279) Austin Slater SF, OF, 28.4 – Broke out with a .282/.408/.506 triple-slash, 5 homers, and 8 steals in 104 PA. Underlying stats back up the breakout with career highs in K% (21.2%), BB% (15.4%), exit velocity (89.2 MPH), and launch angle (10.9 degrees). The only thing holding him back is being in a short side of a platoon role, but the upside is there if San Francisco unleashes him. 2021 Projection: 63/17/66/.260/.347/.438/14

280) Michael Busch LAD, 2B, 23.5 – It’s hard to have major risers just on the back of good reports, but Busch’s 2020 reports were so glowing with talk of plus hit and plus power that it would be hard to ignore. It is the same skills that he displayed in the ACC, and considering how much I already liked him coming into the year, I’m comfortable giving him a significant bump. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/26/86/.267/.346/.478/5

281) Austin Hays BAL, OF, 25.9 – Non displaced rib fracture limited Hays to 33 games. Good feel to hit has transferred to the majors, posting an excellent 20.2% whiff% and .279 BA in 2020. The power hasn’t fully gotten there yet with a very poor 89.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 78/19/71/.268/.329/.435/9

282) Daulton Varsho ARI, C/OF, 24.9 – 86.2/90.6 MPH average/FB exit velocity is well below average, and while it should rise, he put up an 87 MPH average exit velocity in the minors, so the MLB numbers don’t look to be an aberration. 18.4 degree launch angle ensures he’ll take full advantage of the power he does have, and a 28.3 ft/sec sprint speed plus a long track record of success on the base paths ensures healthy stolen base totals. 2021 Projection: 76/18/69/.251/.322.,429/13

283) Chris Bassitt OAK, RHP, 32.1 – Throws a 6 pitch mix and while none are dominant, all of them are effective. The effectiveness of his pitches mirror his underlying stats too, with nothing being standout, but nothing setting off red flags either. He’s a solid but unspectacular starter. 2021 Projection: 10/3.92/1.26/150 in 160 IP

284) Jean Segura PHI, SS, 31.0 – Changed his hitting profile with career highs in launch angle (11.2 degrees), BB% (10.6%), and K% (20.7%). It led to a homer outbreak with 7 homers in 54 games, but it also came with a drop in BA to .266 (.314 BABIP). 2021 Projection: 83/17/68/.275/.338/.425/9

285) Nathan Eovaldi BOS, RHP, 31.3 – Whiff% hit a career high 28.1% and stuff remained nasty with 97.3 MPH heat. It led to a very solid season, putting up a pitching line of 3.72/1.20/52/7 in 48.1 IP. 2021 Projection: 10/3.93/1.28/149 in 145 IP

286) Joc Pederson CHC, OF, 28.11 – .200 BABIP tanked his triple-slash (.190/.285/.397), but power still looked great with a career high 93 MPH exit velocity and 7 homers in 43 games. He also dominated in the playoffs with a 169 wRC+ in 37 PA. 2021 Projection: 73/27/71/.241/.336/.488/3

287) Nolan Gorman STL, 3B, 20.11 – Reports were all positive from alt camp, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Gorman has double plus power potential, but his strikeout rates have been a bit on the worrying side (31.7% K% in 230 PA at High-A). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/31/89/.250/.333/.500/3

288) Heliot Ramos SF, OF, 21.7 – Strained oblique early in instructional league play which ended his season. He has big time power but will have to cut down on his strikeouts in the upper levels of the minors before he gets the call. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/26/84/.261/.334/.472/8

289) George Valera CLE, OF, 20.5 – Posses one of the sweetest lefty swings in the minors. Coaches praised his maturing plate approach at alt camp and instructs, while continuing to smack the ball all over the field. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/25/84/.276/.357/.478/9

290) Garrett Mitchell MIL, OF, 22.7 – Selected 20th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mitchell builds his game around double plus speed and plus centerfield defense. At 6’3”, 215 pounds the plus raw power is in there, but he hasn’t been able to tap into yet with a low launch angle and 0 homers in 15 games in 2020 (6 homers in 62 game in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 82/16/68/.266/.335/.424/24

291) Nolan Jones CLE, 3B, 22.11 – Defense was the name of the game for Jones in 2020 with Cleveland looking to expand his versatility in anticipation of a possible OF debut. He’s an extremely patient hitter with swing and miss issues and double plus power that he hasn’t fully tapped into yet. ETA: September-8/3/8/.233/.308/.403/0 Prime Projection: 83/27/82/.251/.358/.477/2

292) Josh Lowe TB, OF, 23.2 – Was named a top prospect performer at Tampa’s alternative site and was praised for “showing well in all facets of the game.” He was coming off off-season shoulder surgery, so at the very least it shows he is back to full strength. Lowe is a plus power/speed combo with hit tool concerns. 2021 Projection: Septebmer-9/3/7/.222/.296/.393/3 Prime Projection: 81/24/76/.245/.328/.457/16

293) Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 22.6 – Cruz is a beast of a man at 6’7” with double plus raw power, but high groundball rates have prevented him from tapping into it. Fly ball percentage jumped up 8.9% to 38.1% after his promotion to Double-A in the 2nd half of 2019, so if he can maintain those gains, the double plus raw power will definitely start to shine through. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 75/27/85/.252/.323/.476/9

294) Hedbert Perez MIL, OF, 18.0 – Was putting up some big time exit velocity readings at instructs, and impressed at alternate camp with several opposite field dingers. The power certainly looks legit. Perez has some of the highest upside in all of the minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/26/88/.273/.342/.468/17

295) Brady Singer KC, RHP, 24.9 – As advertised in his MLB debut with a plus sinker/slider combo. Only threw his changeup 4.7% of the time, but it was effective when he threw it with a .260 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 9/4.16/1.31/147 in 160 IP

296) John Means BAL, RHP, 27.11 – Velocity surged on the 4-seamer 2.1 MPH to 93.8 MPH and it resulted in a 10.7% increase in whiff% on the pitch (28.9%). 2021 Projection: 9/4.15/1.26/154 in 163 IP

297) Zach Eflin PHI, LHP, 27.0 – Upping sinker usage 29.7% to 51.6% resulted in a career low 7.9 degree launch angle against. K% surged 10.3% to 28.6% but whiff% only increased 3.7% to 24%. 2021 Projection: 10/4.22/1.31/158 in 161 IP

298) Carlos Martinez STL, RHP, 29.6 – Got caught up in the Cards Covid outbreak and it resulted in a completely lost season for Martinez with his surface stats and underlying stats way down across the board in 20 IP. 2021 Projection: 8/4.17/1.31/142 in 148 IP

299) Andrew McCutchen PHI, OF, 34.5 – Posted a career low 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed coming off ACL surgery in June 2019. BB% also dropped 7.3% to a career low 9.1%. On the plus side, his power looked all the way back with 10 homers and a 18.2 degree launch angle in 57 games. 2021 Projection: 81/24/79/.260/.347/.460/8

300) Jake Odorizzi FA, RHP, 31.0 – Limited to 13.2 IP with a variety of ailments (right intercostal strain, chest contustion, blister). He didn’t look very good in those innings with a 6.59 ERA, but he was able to maintain 2019’s velocity bump with a career high 93 MPH 4-seamer. 2021 Projection: 10/3.94/1.27/161 in 160 IP

301) David Price LAD, LHP, 35.7 – Opted out of the 2020 season. Last we heard from Price, he was having a cyst removed from his left wrist in September 2019. The velocity has been in a clear decline over the past 2 seasons (91.9 MPH), so maybe the year off will be rejuvenating. 2021 Projection: 10/4.15/1.26/161 in 162 IP

302) Sean Manaea OAK, LHP, 29.2 – Ditched 4-seamer in favor of his sinker, and it resulted in a career best 50.3% GB%. 2021 Projection: 10/3.90/1.22/136 in 155 IP

303) Amed Rosario CLE, SS, 25.4 – Gave back all the gains he made in exit velocity (2.9 MPH decrease to 86.5 MPH), didn’t steal a single base in 46 games, and might have lost his starting job to Andres Gimenez. This seems to be one of the cases where the shortened season can’t excuse all of the red flags, and Rosario seems to agree as he is working to revamp his swing with the batting coach who turned Justin Turner into an animal. 2021 Projection: 63/13/67/.274/.313/.415/10

304) Madison Bumgarner ARI, LHP, 31.8 – I recommended trading Bumgarner last off-season in my 2020 Top 1,000 Ranking, “With xFIP’s over four the last three years and the aforementioned ballpark downgrade, I would be looking to trade Bumgarner this off-season,” and I hope you listened because his velocity was down 3 MPH to 88.4 MPH, his ERA ballooned to 6.48, and a back issue popped up which kept him out for almost a month. He closed out the season with 2 strong starts, and he’s only 31 years old, so there is certainly bounce back potential. 2021 Projection: 9/4.26/1.31/153 in 165 IP

305) Michael Pineda MIN, RHP, 32.3 – Returned from a 39 game PED suspension and looked good in 5 starts with a 3.38 ERA and 25/7 K/BB in 26.2 IP. The velocity is not quite what it used to be with a career low 92.1 MPH 4-seamer and 82.4 MPH slider, but the pitches are as effective as they ever were. 2021 Projection: 9/4.17/1.25/145 in 150 IP

306) Jeimer Candelario DET, 1B/3B, 27.4 – Power took another step with a 2 MPH increase in exit velocity to 90.2 MPH and notched a career high .205 ISO. 2021 Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.344/.458/3

307) Robert Puason OAK, SS, 18.5 – Handled himself well at alternate camp focusing on the basics of being a professional like routine and preparation. The 6’3”, 165 pound Pauson landed a $5.1 million bonus in last years international signing period, and he has all the requisite talent that a bonus like that indicates. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/24/87/.266/.334/.462/21

308) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 22.6 – Fastball was sitting 96-99 at alternate camp and made improvements to his 3 secondaries (change, curve, slider). The stuff is electric but control/command still needs to take a major step forward to reach his considerable ceiling. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.32/187 in 174 IP

309) Joey Bart SF, C, 24.3 – Rough MLB debut, slashing .233/.288/.320 with 0 homers and a 41/3 K/BB in 33 games. Hit the ball very hard when he did make contact with a 89 MPH exit velocity and 95.6 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, so if he can improve his plate approach, the homers will come. 2021 Projection: 22/7/28/.237/.299/.404/1 Prime Projection: 66/24/77/.256/.322/.454/3

310) Jonathan India CIN, 3B, 24.3 – Power looked much improved at alternative camp with reports of increased bat speed and was consistently ripping the ball all over the park. It’s nice to see after his power hasn’t completely shown up in his minor league career. Combine that with a good feel to hit, advanced approach, and speed, and India could be set up for a big 2021. 2021 Projection: August-24/6/19/.248/.331/.429/4 Prime Projection: 81/22/74/.268/.349/.454/12

311) Josh Jung TEX, 3B, 23.2 – The move of Isaiah Kiner Falefa from 3B to SS opens up a clear path for Jung. He was getting rave reviews at instructs for his plus hitting ability and plus power potential. 2021 Projection: May-61/18/66/.251/.322/.445/3 Prime Projection: 77/24/83/.273/.341/.468/5

312) Bobby Dalbec BOS, 1B, 25.9 – Insane power (99.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity with 8 homers in 23 games) and insane strikeouts (42.4% K%). Unsustainable .394 BABIP kept Dalbec’s batting average respectable (.263). 2021 Projection: 72/33/81/.227/.312/.470/3

313) Raisel Iglesias LAA, Closer, 31.3 – Had all four pitches working in 2020 with all them returning positive value. It led to career bests in xFIP (2.87), xERA (2.50) and WHIP (0.91). 2021 Projection: 3/3.37/1.15/85/31 in 66 IP

314) Yusei Kikuchi SEA, LHP, 29.8 – The ERA didn’t change all that much with 5.17 ERA, but almost everything else did. Velocity jumped 2.5 MPH to 95 MPH, he added a 92.1 MPH cutter to the arsenal which become his most used pitch, and his K% increased 8.1% to 24.2%. It resulted in a 3.51 xERA and 3.78 xFIP. 2021 Projection: 9/4.31/1.32/156 in 165 IP

315) Jesus Aguilar MIA, 1B, 30.9 – K% dropped for the third year in a row to a career best 18.5%. It led to a bounce back season with a 121 wRC+. 2021 Projection: 68/24/79/.262/.343/.459/0

316) Cristian Hernandez CHC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 175 pounds Hernandez takes vicious hacks at the dish, foreshadowing monster power potential when his projectable frame fills out. He also gets high marks for his athleticism, feel to hit, and plus speed. The top international prospects consistently get underrated in first year player drafts, so while the risk is high, the discount in drafts mitigates that. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 83/26/87/.273/.341/.476/14

317) Wilman Diaz LAD, SS, 17.4 – At 6’2”, 170 pounds Diaz is a plus athlete who has displayed a good feel to hit and the ability to hit it with authority in Venezuelan youth leagues. The power potential is plus as he gains strength, and he should retain enough speed to steal 10+ bags even as he gains weight. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 85/24/81/.279/.352/.462/12

318) Erick Pena KC, OF, 18.1 – Held his own at instructs playing against advanced competition, but did show some swing and miss. He’s 6’3” with a smooth lefty swing that is easy to dream on. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 85/27/91/.272/.348/.490/7

319) Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 11th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Crochet made it all the way up to the Majors and unleashed an unhittable, double plus 100.1 MPH fastball on the league. He’s never been a full time starter, so bullpen risk is high, although his upside would be considerable as a closer. Injury risk is high too as shoulder soreness delayed the start of his college season and then he suffered a flexor strain to his forearm to end his season during the playoffs. 2021 Projection: 2/4.23/1.33/34 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.77/1.28/189 in 168 IP

320) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 22.2 – Selected 2nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kherstad has at least plus power and put up impressive home run totals from day 1 in the SEC, knocking 37 homers in 150 career games. The K/BB numbers are suspect (129/54), but he was in the midst of a Junior year breakout before the season got shutdown (6 homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 16 games). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/31/92/.250/.323/.505/3

321) Austin Hendrick CIN, OF, 19.10 – Selected 12th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hendrick generates incredible bat speed with at least plus power potential. Put up a 105 MPH exit velocity at a Perfect Game event in 2019, which puts him in the 99.8% percentile for his prep class. On the downside, there is some swing and miss concerns, he’s old for his class, and he hasn’t consistently faced the toughest competition. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/29/87/.252/.334/.481/6

322) Kenley Jansen LAD, Closer, 33.6 – Velocity declined for the 4th year in a row to a career worst 90.9 MPH on the cutter, and BB% spiked 2.7% to 8.8%. He was still effective overall with a 3.33 ERA and 33 K’s in 24.1 IP, but he did notch a career worst 1.15 WHIP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.67/1.13/75/34 in 64 IP

323) Ryan Pressly HOU, Closer, 32.4 – .365 BABIP kept the surface stats in check with a 3.43 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but the 12.43 K/9 and 2.74 xERA were still in prime form. 2021 Projection: 3/3.39/1.18/84/30 in 62 IP

324) Nick Anderson TB, Closer Committee, 30.9 – The numbers are silly elite (0.55/0.49/26/3 in 16.1 IP), but Tampa has a fluid bullpen philosophy, and if 2020 is any indication they are likely to keep Anderson’s overall innings on the low side as well. 2021 Projection: 3/2.94/1.02/90/18 in 59 IP

325) Brad Hand WASH, Closer, 31.0 – Velocity continued to decline to 91.4 MPH and whiff% tanked 5.9% to 24.8%, but it didn’t stop him from dominating with a pitching line of 2.05/0.77/29/4 in 22 IP 2021 Projection: 3/3.42/1.18/80/32 in 65 IP

326) Kirby Yates TOR, Closer, 34.0 – Signing with Toronto ensures he will remain a closer. Surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow ended his season after 4.1 IP. Expected to be fully healthy for 2021. 2021 Projection: 3/3.43/1.16/82/30 in 55 IP

327) Luke Weaver ARI, RHP, 27.7 – FB% skyrocketed to a career high 48.7% (37.8% in 2019) which led to homer problems (1.73 HR/9). BABIP (.349) and left on base percentage (63.2%) were both worse than career averages, so some of that 6.58 ERA is due to bad luck. 2021 Projection: 7/4.38/1.35/149 in 145 IP

328) Mitch Keller PIT, RHP, 25.0 – Oblique strain limited Keller to 21.2 IP. Complete reversal from 2019 where his 7.13 ERA didn’t match his 3.47 xFIP, to 2020 where his 2.91 ERA didn’t match his 6.57 xFIP. Everything looked bad for Keller in 2020, but considering the shortened year and injury, I would throw it out completely. 2021 Projection: 8/4.23/1.34/150 in 150 IP

329) Matthew Boyd DET, LHP, 30.2 – Couldn’t maintain his 2019 strikeout explosion with his K% dropping 8.1% to 22.1%. He got hit up for a 6.71 ERA. 2021 Projection: 9/4.42/1.36/171 in 165 IP

330) Jordan Montgomery NYY, LHP, 28.4 – 5.11 ERA in 44 IP, but the underlying stats looked much better. Velocity reached a career high on his sinker (92.5 MPH) and 4-seamer (92.6 MPH) while holding opponents to an elite 84.6 MPH exit velocity against. 24.6 K% and 4.7% BB% also portend good things for the future. 2021 Projection: 10/4.03/1.28/152 in 158 IP

331) Justus Sheffield SEA, LHP, 24.10 – Ditched the 4-seamer in favor of a sinker which led to a 3.58 ERA in 55.1 IP. The underlying numbers were not quite as good with a well below average 19.8% whiff% and 4.18 xERA. 2021 Projection: 8/4.08/1.31/151 in 160 IP

332) Caleb Smith ARI, LHP, 28.8 – Catching Covid limited Smith to 14 IP. The stuff looked good with a 35.4% whiff%, and while a 20% BB% is obviously ridiculous, he’s had control problems throughout his career (10.3% career BB%). 2021 Projection: 8/4.24/1.28/158 in 148 IP

333) Michael Lorenzen CIN, RHP, 29.3 – Currently penciled in as the 5th starter. Lorenzen throws a 6 pitch mix headlined by a 96.8 MPH 4-seamer. Changeup and slider are his go to strikeout weapons with a 45.5% whiff% and 52.1% whiff%, respectively. Control has been an issue throughout his career, and it hit a career worst 11.6% in 2020. 2021 Projection: 6/4.21/1.35/121 in 125 IP

334) Victor Reyes DET, OF, 26.6 – Exit velocity jumped 2.4 MPH to 90 MPH which resulted in a small bump in homer power with 4 homers in 213 PA (3 homers in 292 PA in 2019). Sprint speed dropped from 28.9 ft/sec to 27.9 ft/sec, but it didn’t impact his stolen base totals with 8 steals. 2021 Projection: 76/14/59/.268/.303/.412/16

335) Maikel Franco FA, 3B, 28.8 – Posts excellent contacts numbers (15.6% K%) with above average power (94.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity), but the overall numbers remain more solid than standout with a 106 wRC+. 2021 Projection: 66/23/78/.268/.322/.461/0

336) Jonathan Schoop DET, 2B, 29.6 – Continues to post above average power numbers (8 homers in 44 games) even with below average exit velocity (87.2 MPH). 2021 Projection: 69/22/66/.263/.311/.459/1

337) Tyler O’Neill STL, OF, 25.9 – Career best 27.4% K% but a .189 BABIP tanked his BA (.173). Continued to hit the ball hard (95.4 MPH FB/LD exit velocity) and in the air (15.1 degree launch), to go along with blazing fast speed (29.6 ft/sec sprint speed), so the ingredients are there for a monster breakout if he can lock down playing time without Fowler in the mix. 2021 Projection: 68/23/66/.244/.317/.463/8

338) Manuel Margot TB, OF, 26.6 – Power absolutely detonated in the postseason with 5 homers in 19 games, which is nice to see after hitting only 1 in 47 games during the regular season. He ran a ton with 14 steals in 66 total games and tied a career high in exit velocity at 89.4 MPH. I’ve been calling Margot a later career breakout type in the mold of Lorenzo Cain in my last two top 1,000’s and still think he is on that path. 2021 Projection: 68/14/59/.267/.331/.406/17

339) Franchy Cordero KC, OF, 26.5 – A severe right wrist sprain which required a procedure limited Cordero to 16 games. Extremely high strikeout rates have been holding his plus power/speed combo back, but he managed to put up a 9.5% K% in 42 PA in 2021, which is a good sign even if the sample is extremely small. 2021 Projection: 69/20/66/.248/.315/.445/10

340) Oscar Mercado CLE, OF, 26.4 – Slow start got Mercado sent back down to alternate camp in August and he wasn’t any better when returning in September. Sprint speed tanked from 29.5 ft/sec in 2019 to 28.1 ft/sec in 2020, so maybe something wasn’t right. Cleveland’s OF is a total crapshoot right now, so he can work his way back into playing time with a rejuvenated 2021. 2021 Projection: 58/11/51/.258/.307/.406/13

341) Travis d’Arnaud ATL, C, 32.2 – .321 BA is a mirage with a .411 BABIP and a career worst 27.2% K%, but the power is legit with a blazing 93.4 MPH exit velocity and 9 homers in 44 games. 2021 Projection: 57/22/65/.264/.328/.463/1

342) Roberto Osuna FA, Closer, 26.2 – Suffered from right elbow soreness early in the season which limited Osuna to 4.1 IP. The initial diagnosis recommended Tommy John surgery, but as of now he will try the rest and rehab route. It goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, the injury risk is high. 2021 Projection: 2/3.34/1.06/31/15 in 30 IP

343) Trevor Rogers MIA, LHP, 23.5 – 6.61 ERA in 28 IP but the underlying numbers looked much better with a 30% K%, 5.3% barrel%, and 3.49 xERA. He throws a dominant changeup (.203 xwOBA), a high spin rate 93.6 MPH fastball, an average slider, and a little used sinker. 2021 Projection: 7/4.22/1.35/131 in 125 IP

344) Simeon Woods Richardson TOR, RHP, 20.6 – Coaches at alternate camp talked up Richardson’s good feel to pitch and potential for 4 plus pitches, coming away particularly pleased with the progress he made on his curveball and changeup. He doesn’t have the mid 90’s heat right now, but everything else is there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 13/3.81/1.18/195 in 183 IP

345) Renato Nunez FA, 1B, 27.0 – Non-tendered by Baltimore despite cranking 12 homers in 52 games. I warned you in the 2020 Top 1,000 that holding down a starting job was going to be an issue for Nunez despite the no doubt power, writing, “Playing time is the main concern, not only this year but in the future, because he is a very bad defensive player. The power isn’t a question.” 2021 Projection: 69/24/75/.243/.316/.463/1

346) Ronny Mauricio NYM, SS, 20.0 – You’re betting on the considerable raw talent to blossom from the 6’3”, 166 pound Mauricio, because the current production is lacking with high groundball rates (52.8%) and not much power (4 homers in 116 games at Full-A). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/24/83/.273/.334/.457/5

347) Tyler Freeman CLE, 21.10 – Elite contact rates transferred to full season ball in 2019 with a 10.3% K% at Full-A and 9.1% K% at High-A. He doesn’t have an overly high ground ball rate, so when he inevitably gains strength as he matures, the home runs will come. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 88/16/63/.291/.338/.434/14

348) Matt Allan NYM, RHP, 19.11 – Drafted 89th overall in 2019, but received the 2nd highest bonus for a high school pitcher. Allen is physically mature at 6’3”, 225 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and a plus, high spin rate curveball. Reports from alt camp were positive about the development of his changeup, now giving him the chance for 3 plus pitches. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 14/3.68/1.25/190 in 180 IP

349) Josiah Gray LAD, RHP, 23.2 – Electric fastball/slider combo with plus command. Getting away from the competition of real games at alternate camp allowed him to really focus on his secondary pitches and showed improved shape on his curve and slider. 2021 Projection: 2/4.30/1.28/52 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.63/1.18/176 in 172 IP

350) Gilberto Jimenez BOS, OF, 20.9 – Showed up to instructs with added strength and size, while continuing to display a good feel to hit and double plus speed. If the power really does come around, Jimenez is going to fly up lists. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 83/14/63/.275/.336/.408/28

351) Matthew Liberatore STL, LHP, 21.5 – Uptick in velocity and was named the most improved and exciting player at Cardinals alternate camp, emphasizing all the work he put in with the analytics department. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.77/1.23/181 in 178 IP

352) Edward Cabrera MIA, RHP, 23.0 – Experienced arm discomfort which shut Cabrera down for over a month. He throws a nasty upper 90’s fastball with a plus curve and improving change. 2021 Projection: 3/4.33/1.34/69 in 72 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.24/183 in 176 IP

353) AJ Puk OAK, LHP, 25.11 – Oakland announced Puk will be a part of the starting rotation, but it might be wishful thinking with the arm injuries piling up. He underwent shoulder surgery in September, which comes off needing Tommy John surgery in August 2018. He is expected to be ready by Spring Training, and he’ll need a strong showing in order to lock in that starting role considering how nasty he could be out of the pen. 2021 Projection: 6/3.98/1.33/121 in 110 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.30/173 in 156 IP

354) Jordan Balazovic MIN, RHP, 22.7 – Showed up to camp with added weight, and it resulted in his fastball ticking up from the low 90’s to the mid 90’s while maintaining the ability to locate it. He uses an above average curve to get whiffs to go along with an average change. 2021 Projection: August- 3/4.26/1.29/42 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.22/185 in 178 IP

355) Ryan Yarbrough TB, RHP, 29.2 – Doesn’t throw gas (87.3 MPH sinker) or rack up strikeouts (7.1 K/9), but is among the best in the league at inducing weak contact (82.6 MPH exit velocity against). 2021 Projection: 11/3.92/1.23/129 in 155 IP

356) Jarren Duran BOS, OF, 24.7 – Duran made an adjustment to his swing to unlock more power and it worked like gangbusters with 8 homers at the alt site. Here he is absolutely cranking a homer to RF. Combine that with double plus speed and a good feel to hit, and he is one of the top 2020 breakouts. 2021 Projection: 28/4/23/.252/.304/.411/7 Prime Projection: 80/20/80/.260/.323/.442/21

357) Deivi Garcia NYY, RHP, 21.10 – Pounded the strike zone with a 4 pitch mix in his MLB debut, putting up a pitching line of 4.98/1.19/33/5 in 34.1 IP. Whiff% (22.8%) and velocity (91.9 MPH) were on the underwhelming side, and his slight frame at 5’9”, 163 pounds is still a concern, but he understands the art of pitching and has the ability to hit his spots. 2021 Projection: 5/4.34/1.30/96 in 98 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.88/1.24/176 in 171 IP

358) Jordan Hicks STL, Setup, 24.7 – Opted out of the 2020 season coming off Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He’ll have to win back his closer job in Spring, and he’s more than capable of doing that with a 101.1 MPH sinker and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/3.48/1.14/71/18 in 60 IP

359) Austin Nola SD, C, 31.3 – Doesn’t truly standout in any one way, but does a lot of thing really good (18.5% K%, 9.8% BB%, 89.7 MPH exit velocity, .273 batting average, 7 homers in 48 games). You get the point, Nola is an above average all around hitter. 2021 Projection: 72/19/76/.270/.345/.453/2

360) Kody Hoese LAD, 3B, 23.9 – Reported to be the best hitter at alternate camp showing a good feel to hit and power to all fields. He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds and was the 25th overall pick in the 2019 draft, so he has the build and pedigree to back up the alternate camp praise. ETA: Late 2021/22 Prime Projection: 76/24/82/.268/.333/.452/3

361) Tejay Antone CIN, RHP, 27.4 – Better in the majors than he ever was in the minors with a 2.80 ERA and 11.5 K/9 in 35.1 IP (8.2 K/9 at Double and Triple-A in 2019). Antone rocks a 95.6 MPH sinker, plus slider, and an untouchable curveball (.118 xwOBA) that he threw only 16.7% of the time. Not projected to start the year in the rotation, but he’ll be among the first in line when a spot inevitably opens. 2021 Projection: 6/3.99/1.30/135 in 128 IP

362) Lorenzo Cain MIL, OF, 35.0 – Opted out of the season after 5 games. Sprint speed dropped to 26.1 ft/sec in those games, and while it’s not a great sign considering his age, it was an extremely small sample of only 10 competitive runs. 2021 Projection: 79/13/48/.274/.345/.409/17

363) Kole Calhoun ARI, OF, 33.6 – Crushed 16 homers in 54 games on the back of a career high 17 degree launch angle. 2021 Projection: 79/27/77/.238/.332/.461/3

364) Justin Upton LAA, OF, 33.7 – Power is still in peak form with 9 homers and a career high 91.7 MPH exit velocity in 42 games, but the batting average keeps getting worse at .204, and the speed is all but gone. 2021 Projection: 76/30/84/.228/.317/.451/3

365) David Peralta ARI, OF, 33.8 – Hits for a high batting average with a 20.6% K%, 6.4 degree launch angle and 88.5 MPH GB exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 62/20/71/.279/.343/.447/.2

366) Kwang Hyun Kim STL, LHP, 32.9 – Soft tossing lefty (89.9 MPH 4-seamer) who induces weak contact (87.1 MPH exit velo against), but a 15.6% K% and 5.5 K/9 is extremely low. 2021 Projection: 10/4.08/1.24/128 in 166 IP

367) Miles Mikolas STL, RHP, 32.7 – Missed all of 2020 after undergoing surgery on the flexor tendon in his right arm, but is expected to be fully healthy for 2021. He’s a low K pitcher with plus control. 2021 Projection: 9/4.13/1.24/129 in 160 IP

368) Raimel Tapia COL, OF, 27.2 – There isn’t very much power in the bat (85.3 MPH exit velocity), but Tapia is fast (8 steals with a 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed in 51 games), and made the best contact of his career in 2020 with an 18.9% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 77/8/58/.283/.334/.410/17

369) Robbie Ray TOR, LHP, 29.6 – Control is getting worse with a career high 17.9% BB% while K% hit a 5 year low (27.1%). It led to a disastrous 6.62 ERA. 2021 Projection: 10/4.48/1.41/205 in 170 IP

370) Jose Urquidy HOU, RHP, 25.11 – Covid limited Urquidy to 45.1 IP including the playoffs, and while the surface stats looked good (3.19 ERA), the underlying numbers were not as kind with a 29/14 K/BB and a regular season 5.22 xERA/5.36 xFIP (6.62 playoff x/FIP) 2021 Projection: 7/4.28/1.33/134 in 145 IP

371) Kyle Seager SEA, 3B, 33.5 – Strong contact numbers but has consistently posted low BABIP’s, particularly over the past 4 seasons. High launch angle with above average power ensures healthy home run totals. 2021 Projection: 72/26/85/.243/.328/.445/3

372) Eduardo Escobar ARI, 3B, 32.3 – I didn’t fully buy into the 2019 breakout due to the poor Statcast numbers, writing in my 2020 Top 1,000, “Huge season with 35 homers and 118 RBI but mediocre exit velocity numbers (91.1 MPH FB/LD exit velocity) keeps me hesitant from completely buying in.” The exit velocity numbers got even worse this year, dropping to a 89.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity, and the power disappeared with only 4 homers in 54 games. 2021 Projection: 74/23/81/.261/.327/.455/3

373) Adam Eaton CHW, OF, 32.4 – A fractured left index finger ended Eaton’s season in September. Career low .260 BABIP was the main cause of Eaton’s down year (75 wRC+). 2021 Projection: 79/15/52/.271/.349/.421/12

374) Jackie Bradley Jr. FA, OF, 31.0 – Career low 22.1% K% which was backed up by a career low 26.1% whiff% led to a career best .283 BA. .343 BABIP helped a bit too. 2021 Projection: 73/19/69/.253/.331/.428/9

375) Yuli Gurriel HOU, 1B, 36.10 – Down year with a .658 OPS, which is always concerning for a 36 year old, but it looks like it mostly due to a .235 BABIP as the underlying numbers were in line with career norms. 2021 Projection: 74/22/82/.281/.325/.467/3

376) Joey Votto CIN, 1B, 37.7 – Changed his approach to hit for more power and it paid off with 11 homers in 54 games. Career low .226 BA was partly due to the approach change and partly due to a career low .235 BABIP. 2021 Projection: 86/23/78/.269/.371/.446/3

377) Brandon Belt SF, 1B, 33.0 – Underwent surgery in October 2020 to remove a bone spur in his right heel, putting his status for Opening Day in doubt. He finally had the power breakout we were all waiting for with a career high 90.7/95.1 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity which led to 9 homers in 51 games. Better late than never. 2021 Projection: 72/22/79/.270/.371/.469/3

378) Miguel Cabrera DET, DH, 37.11 – Exit velocity bounced back to beastly levels at 93.2 MPH which led to 10 homers in 57 games. Whiff% jumped to a career high 31.6% which led to his highest K% (22.1%) since his rookie year. 2021 Projection: 68/24/79/.269/.344/.454/0

379) Carlos Santana KC, 1B, 35.0 – Down year with a .199 BA and .699 OPS, and while most of it could be blamed on a .212 BABIP, his power was also slightly down with a 91.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 84/27/82/.245/.365/.450/2

380) Christian Vazquez BOS, C, 30.7 – Backed up his 2019 power breakout with 7 homers in 47 games, but with a 91.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity I would keep expectations in check. Career worst 22.8% K%, and needed a .341 BABIP to buoy his .283 BA. 2021 Projection: 62/20/69/.266/.330/.438/5

381) James McCann NYM, C, 30.9 – Backed up his 2019 power breakout by maintaining strong exit velocity numbers (90.5/94.7 MPH AVG/FB) while also bringing his launch angle back up to 15 degrees. 2021 Projection: 64/21/71/.247/.319/.448/2

382) Mitch Haniger SEA, OF, 30.3 – A ruptured testicle and back injury ended Haniger’s 2019 season in June. He then underwent two separate core surgeries and a back surgery over the off-season which knocked him out for all of 2020. He is expected to be ready to go for 2021, but in what condition is anyone’s guess. 2021 Projection: 74/23/71/.245/.330/.454/5

383) Gregory Polanco PIT, OF, 29.6 – Strikeout rate completely imploded with a career worst 37.4% K% and 43% whiff%. It might have been because he was trying to absolutely demolish the baseball with a 92.9/97 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. Hopefully he can find a happy medium in 2021. 2021 Projection: 76/23/82/.236/.304/.435/8

384) Alex Dickerson SF, OF, 30.10 – Strong side of a platoon power bat with a career .863 OPS vs. righties and .687 OPS vs. lefties. His relatively good feel to hit (17.6% K%) gives him legitimate breakout potential if given a full time job. 2021 Projection: 68/20/67/.279/.349/.481/1

385) Geraldo Perdomo ARI, SS, 20.5 – Elite plate approach transferred to full season ball in 2019 with a 67/70 K/BB in 116 games split between Full-A and High-A. Power hasn’t shown up yet, but at 6’3”, 184 pounds there is certainly more to come. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 87/18/73/.286/.362/.442/16

386) Taylor Trammell SEA, OF, 23.6 – Stats in 14 instructional league games were weak, hitting only .173, but coaches came away impressed with his at-bats and claimed he hit into some bad luck. He did put up a strong .346 OBP and led the team with 6 doubles. 2021 Projection: August-23/5/21/.241/.320/.396/6 Prime Projection: 79/17/71/.258/.332/.428/21

387) Jordyn Adams LAA, OF, 21.5 – I’m gonna do a few extra because in a normal year a bunch of prospects in the top 100 would have graduated already. Adams was a standout at alternate camp, showing the ability to make adjustments against advanced competition and started to get to more of his raw power. He’s a great athlete with plus speed, so news of continued refinement and more power is as good as it gets. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/21/74/.272/.343/.448/19

388) Xavier Edwards TB, 2B/SS, 21.8 – Stop me if you heard this one before, but Edwards has no clear path to playing time in Tampa’s never ending logjam. He has plus speed with elite contact rates and a patient plate approach, but has little to no power projection. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 86/7/51/.288/.347/.398/26

389) Daniel Espino CLE, RHP, 20.3 – Showed off his explosive stuff at alternate camp with a fastball that can reach triple digits and the potential for two plus breaking balls. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.75/1.26/190 in 178 IP

390) Luis Campusano SD, C, 22.6 – Smacked a homer and struck out twice in his 1 game MLB debut before hitting the IL with a wrist sprain. His power just started to blossom in 2019, and he’s shown a plus hit tool throughout his minor league career. 2021 Projection: June-38/11/43/.267/.329/.436/0 Prime Projection: 74/22/77/.276/.342/.460/0

391) Quinn Priester PIT, RHP, 20.7 – Priester throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by two potentially plus fastballs (4 and 2 seamer) and a plus curve. He looked good at the alt site, making improvements on his changeup and control/command. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.25/184 in 179 IP

392) Francisco Alvarez NYM, C, 19.4 – Impressive pro debut in stateside rookie ball in 2019, slashing .312/.407/.510 with 7 homers and a 37/21 K/BB in 42 games. He continued to impress at the alt site, showing off a good feel to hit and at least plus raw power. Alvarez has the chance to be one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/25/84/.272/.341/.467/2

393) Bryce Jarvis ARI, RHP, 23.3 – Selected 18th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Jarvis took a major step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s. He refined his breaking balls to become above average pitches and showed much improved control. He didn’t have the opportunity to prove he can do it for more than 27 IP, but he now has the chance for 4 above average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) with above average control/command. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.85/1.26/181 in 172 IP

394) Mick Abel PHI, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 15th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Abel is your prototypical projectable high school pitcher at 6’5”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He throws strikes but he’s more control over command right now. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.80/1.25/192 in 184 IP

395) Carlos Colmenarez TB, SS, 17.4 – At 5’10”, 175 pounds Colmenarez has a quick, compact lefty swing with natural loft that should lead to more power as he ages. He’s hit well in games and is an average runner with above average potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 80/22/80/.270/.340/.445/9

396) Robert Hassell SD, OF, 19.8 – Selected 8th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hassell has the consensus top hit tool in the high school class but hasn’t hit for very much power and doesn’t project for huge power numbers down the line either. A 91 MPH top exit velocity mark at Perfect game events in 2019 isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 87/16/69/.286/.351/.425/15

397) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS, 19.10 – Struggled at the start of alternate camp against advanced competition, but was one of the most impressive players there by the end of it. Has the potential for average to above average tools across the board. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.267/.341/.456/10

398) Kolten Wong MIL, 2B, 30.6 – Doesn’t offer much power (1 homer in 53 games), but he makes good contact (14.4% K%), gets on base (9.6% BB%) and chips in some steals (5 steals). 2021 Projection: 67/10/48/.270/.348/.398/15

399) Devin Williams MIL, Setup, 26.6 – Best changeup in the game with a -13 run value, 61.1% whiff% and .110 xwOBA. 96.4 MPH fastball ain’t too shabby either. 2021 Projection: 4/3.27/1.01/98/4 in 61 IP

400) Drew Pomeranz SD, Closer Committee, 32.4 – Might share closer duties with Emilio Pagan. Pomeranz backed up his 2019 breakout in 2020 with a 1.45 ERA and 39.7% K%. 2021 Projection: 3/3.23/1.05/83/25 in 65 IP

401) Brad Keller KC, RHP, 25.8 – Has a history of outperforming his peripherals (2.47 ERA vs. 4.52 xERA) but that is a dangerous game to play with such a miniscule 16.3% K% and lack of pinpoint control (career 9.1% BB%). 2021 Projection: 10/4.13/1.31/126 in 165 IP

402) Jesus Sanchez MIA, OF, 23.6 – Even with going 1 for 25 in his MLB debut, Sanchez’ plus power was still able to shine through with an extremely small sample 95.4 MPH exit velocity. 11 strikeouts in 29 PA shows he needs more refinement. 2021 Projection: July-27/9/31/.243/.301/.432/4 Prime Projection: 76/24/83/.259/.329/.463/7

403) Greg Jones TB, SS, 23.1 – Late addition to the alternate site because of Tampa’s crazy depth. Jones is maybe the best athlete in the system with double plus speed and developing power. He’s had strikeout issues in his career (25.7% at Short-A), but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 81/14/60/.255/.332/.408/26

404) Dane Dunning TEX, RHP, 26.4 – Rock solid MLB debut with a pitching line of 3.97/1.12/35/13 in 34 IP. Throws a plus sinker/slider combo which produces high groundball rates (45.1% GB%) and high strikeout rates (9.26 K/9). 2021 Projection: 7/4.18/1.33/126 in 125 IP

405) Hunter Greene CIN, RHP, 21.8 – He’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2019, and reports from alternate camp were all positive. He’s a flamethrower with prototypical starter size and plus athletisism, but the secondaries are still raw. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 14/3.64/1.18/188 in 174 IP

406) Nick Lodolo CIN, LHP, 23.2 – Made tremendous strides with his changeup at alternate camp, now giving him the potential for two plus secondaries (curve, change), to go along with his low 90’s heat. 2021 Projection: 3/4.41/1.39/46 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.91/1.25/183 in 181 IP

407) Clarke Schmidt NYY, RHP, 25.1 – Features a high spin rate slider as his knockout pitch which he threw 37.3% of the time in his MLB debut. He compliments that with a 94.8 MPH sinker, 95 MPH 4-seamer and a lesser used changeup. He’ll compete for a rotation spot in the spring. 2021 Projection: 5/4.32/1.35/88 in 86 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.80/1.24/179 in 171 IP

408) Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 22.5 – Contact skills transferred to the majors in his 9 game MLB debut with a 16% K%. Crushed the ball on the ground with a 97.3 MPH exit velocity, but he didn’t fair as well in the air at 91.6 MPH. 2021 Projection: 48/13/56/.274/.338/.436/1 Prime Projection: 72/19/79/.286/.352/.456/2

409) Robbie Grossman DET, OF, 31.6 – Power broke out with a career high 89 MPH exit velocity, which led to 8 homers in 192 PA. Combine that with some speed (8 stolen bases), a strong K/BB (19.8%/10.9%), and a full time job in Detroit, and Grossman is shaping up to be a nice late round sleeper. 2021 Projection: 76/18/63/.255/.349/.413/10

410) Chris Archer TB, RHP, 32.6 – Underwent surgery to relieve symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome in June and missed all of 2020. He was awful in 2019 (5.40 xERA), but re-signing with Tampa seems like the best possible team for a bounce back. 2021 Projection: 7/4.48/1.36/163 in 145 IP

411) Alex Reyes STL, RHP, 26.7 – Showed monster stuff (97.5 MPH) with monster control issues (6.4 BB/9). He’s coming to camp preparing as a starter, but ultimate role is still likely a late inning pen arm. 2021 Projection: 3/3.87/1.30/74/12 in 60 IP

412) Rougned Odor TEX, 2B, 27.2 – Batting average keeps getting worse with a new career low .167 BA. Exit velocity plummeted to 86 MPH, as did his BB% (4.7%). while K% remained elevated at 31.8%. He also gotten slower with a career worst 27 ft/sec sprint speed. 2021 Projection: 74/26/78/.228/.296/.426/7

413) Edwin Rios LAD, 3B, 26.11 – Make it two years in a row that Rios has absolutely mashed in very limited duty (12 homers and a .972 OPS in 139 career PA). He’s not a good defender and his whiff% remains in the danger zone (36.1%), but the power is unquestionable. 2021 Projection: 52/19/57/.235/.294/.450/1

414) Nico Hoerner CHC, 2B/SS, 23.11 – Struggled mightily in 2020, slashing .222/.312/.259 with 0 homers, 3 steals and a 24/12 K/BB in 126 PA. K% rose 5.6% to 19%. There were some silver linings, as his exit velocity rose 1.9 MPH to a not terrible 87.5 MPH, and BB% jumped 5.8% to 9.5%. 2021 Projection: 62/8/40/.267/.331/.396/11

415) Brayan Rocchio CLE, SS, 20.4 – Plus contact rates (13.6% K% at Short-A) with plus speed (14 steals in 69 games) and developing power (5 homers). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 85/16/69/.283/.338/.435/23

416) Liover Peguero PIT, SS, 20.3 – Struggled initially at alternate camp against advanced competition but was able to make adjustments and hold his own by the end of it. He’s an excellent athlete with plus speed and has shown an advanced feel to hit. 90 MPH average exit velocity in 2019 shows the power potential is in there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 84/20/73/.275/.336/.441/17

417) Bryan Reynolds PIT, OF, 26.2 – Could not back up his fantastic MLB debut in 2019 (.880 OPS). Exit velocity dropped 2 MPH to 87.5 MPH, K% rose 5.7% to 27.4%, and BABIP cratered to .231, all of which conspired against him to produce a triple-slash of .189/.275/.357. 2021 Projection: 73/17/66/.261/.333/.428/5

418) David Fletcher LAA, SS/2B, 26.10 – Purely a batting average play with elite contact rates (10.9%) and a career .292 batting average. 86.7 MPH FB/LD exit velocity shows very little power potential and he’s only attempted 17 steals in 283 career games. 2021 Projection: 81/7/57/.295/.352/.398/7

419) Chris Taylor LAD, 2B/OF, 30.7 – Playing time is still the biggest question mark as Taylor continues to display an average power/speed combo with patience and a batting average that won’t hurt you. 2021 Projection: 79/19/77/.260/.340/.460/9

420) Garrett Richards BOS, RHP, 32.11 – The stuff looked good in his first “full” season back from Tommy John surgery, showing off a 95.1 MPH 4-seamer and a plus slider that put up a .264 xwOBA. The overall results were mixed with a 4.03 ERA and a move to the bullpen in the 2nd half of September. 2021 Projection: 8/4.12/1.30/137 in 145 IP

421) Mauricio Dubon SF, OF, 26.8 – 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed and going 2 for 5 on steal attempts in 54 games is not a great sign for his future stolen base totals. Below average power with an above average hit tool. 2021 Projection: 65/13/53/.271/.328/.406/13

422) Elvis Andrus OAK, SS, 32.7 – Trade to Oakland opens up a full time job for him. Career low 26.3 ft/sec sprint speed is not a good sign as he gets deeper into his 30’s, although he has never been the fastest guy so hopefully the steals don’t dry up completely. 2021 Projection: 76/11/59/.255/.306/.387/16

423) Stephen Piscotty OAK, OF, 30.2 – K% skyrocketed 9.6% to 31% which led to his worst season in the Majors (73 wRC+). 2021 Projection: 69/20/73/.251/.320/.446/4

424) Avisail Garcia MIL, OF, 29.10 – Career worst 87.4 MPH exit velocity led to a down year (81 wRC+). He did notch a career high 9.7% BB%, so there is something to build on if the exit velocity pops back up in 2021. 2021 Projection: 68/21/74/.251/.328/.436/7

425) Starlin Castro WASH, 2B, 31.0 – Underwent surgery to repair a broken right wrist in August which limited Castro to 16 games. His launch angle did rise considerably to 16.8 degrees, but it’s too small a sample to really extract anything from that. 2021 Projection: 69/20/74/.272/.317/.440/3

426) Niko Goodrum DET, 2B/SS, 29.1 – The power/speed combo shined through with 5 homers and 7 steals in 43 games, but the strikeout rate mushroomed 9.3% to 38.5% leading to a .184 BA. 2021 Projection: 65/19/73/.232/.318/.428/13

427) Taijuan Walker FA, RHP, 28.8 – Underlying stats (4.87 xERA/4.82 xFIP) don’t back up the excellent pitching line of 2.70/1.16/50/19 in 53.1 IP. On the plus side, his stuff looks all the way back after Tommy John surgery and then a shoulder injury essentially wiped out all of 2018-2019. 2021 Projection: 8/4.24/1.32/137 in 150 IP

428) Sam Hilliard COL, OF, 27.1 – Couldn’t maintain the reasonable contact rates he managed in 2019 with his K% soaring to 36.8% and BA dropping to .210. Even with Dahl gone there is no guarantee of consistent playing time. 2021 Projection: 58/18/55/.238/.302/.439/10

429) Isaac Paredes DET, 3B, 22.1 – Absolutely destroyed Mexican Winter League, slashing ..379/.480/.579 with 4 homers and a 12/27 K/BB in 42 games. His MLB debut didn’t go as well with a .568 OPS in 108 PA. He’s a plus hitter with an advanced plate approach and average power. 2021 Projection: 66/15/63/.258/.319/.403/2 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.282/.350/.461/2

430) Dean Kremer BAL, RHP, 25.3 – The strikeout stuff transferred to the majors with 22 K’s and an above average 26.4% whiff% in 18.2 IP. He doesn’t overpower batters with a 92.8 MPH fastball and got hit hard with a 90.8 MPH exit velocity against, but his K upside makes him a nice late round target. 2021 Projection: 9/4.32/1.36/157 in 155 IP

431) Kris Bubic KC, LHP, 23.8 – Couldn’t maintain the extreme strikeout rates from the minors (11.4 K/9) in his MLB debut (8.82 K/9). Bubic throws a 91.4 MPH fastball with a potentially plus changeup and a curve that put up a .220 xwOBA in 2020. 2021 Projection: 9/4.37/1.36/161 in 157 IP

432) Adbert Alzolay CHC, RHP, 26.1 – Threw his plus slider 39.8% of the time, putting up a .155 xwOBA with the pitch, and while he threw his changeup only 8% of the time, it showed potential with a 58.3% whiff%. Control/command is an issue with a 14.9% BB%. 2021 Projection: 8/4.42/1.41/143 in 145 IP

433 Jon Gray COL, RHP, 29.5 – Shoulder inflammation ended Gray’s season in early September after a terrible 39 IP (6.69 ERA). Velocity was down 2 MPH on the 4 seamer. The good news in that he will be a free agent after this season. 2021 Projection: 8/4.44/1.37/150 in 150 IP

434) Adrian Houser MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Velocity dropped 1.1 MPH on the sinker to 93.2 MPH and couldn’t maintain the 25.3% K% he put up in 2019 with it dropping to 17.9%. It led to a 5.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. 2021 Projection: 9/4.23/1.32/134 in 150 IP

435) Josh Lindblom MIL, RHP, 33.10 – 5.16 ERA wasn’t great but the underlying numbers looked a bit better than that with a 6 pitch mix that put up a respectable 27.2% K% and a 4.01 xERA. 2021 Projection: 9/4.33/1.29/165 in 170 IP

436) Tanner Houck BOS, RHP, 24.9 – Slider was dominant in his 17 inning MLB debut a .182 xwOBA and 47.2% whiff%. Control/command are below average (14.3% BB%), and needs to further develop his splitter. 2021 Projection: 8/4.44/1.41/143 in 150 IP

437) Shane Baz TB, RHP, 21.10 – Improved his changeup at alternate camp but it is still well behind his upper 90’s fastball and at least plus slider. How much he can improve his below average control/command will determine his ultimate upside. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.83/1.31/158 in 152 IP

438) Heriberto Hernandez TB, 1B/OF, 21.4 – 19 years old is on the old side to get excited by rookie ball numbers, but he did impress with double plus bat speed, a .344/.433/.646 triple slash, 11 homers and a 57/27 K/BB in 50 games in 2019. Tampa obviously liked what they saw by targeting him in their trade with Texas. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/23/78/.268/.340/.472/3

439) Dallas Keuchel CHW, LHP, 33.3 – 1.99 ERA in 63.1 IP, but it came with an 8 year low in K% (16.3%) and a career low velocity (87.2 MPH sinker). 2021 Projection: 10/4.14/1.30/133 in 170 IP

440) Domingo German NYY, RHP, 28.8 – Was suspended for all of 2020 and role is up in the air for 2021. He throws a 4 pitch mix leaning heavily on his plus curveball. 2021 Projection: 8/4.32/1.27/132 in 130 IP

441) Shane McClanahan TB, LHP, 23.11 – Throws mid 90’s heat with two plus breaking balls and an improving changeup. Control took a big step forward in 2019, bringing his walk rate down to 3.4 BB/9. May never rack up innings, especially pitching for Tampa, but the upside is considerable. 2021 Projection: July-2/3.93/1.31/37 in 33 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.72/1.25/172 in 157 IP

442) Spencer Turnbull DET, RHP, 28.6 – Hard throwing (94.8 MPH sinker), groundball pitcher (50% GB%) with control issues (12% BB%) 2021 Projection: 9/4.41/1.37/145 in 155 IP

443) DJ Stewart BAL, OF, 27.4 – Power and patience exploded with a 4.9 degree increase in launch angle (17.8 degrees), 3.5 MPH increase in exit velocity (91.4 MPH), and 8% increase in BB% (17.9%), but strikeout rate exploded along with them (33.9%). It resulted in 7 homers and a .193/.355/.455 triple-slash in 31 games. Career .683 OPS vs. lefties (.535 OPS in 2020) could limit him to a platoon role. 2021 Projection: 65/21/72/.233/.331/.447/4

444) Daulton Jefferies OAK, RHP, 25.8 – With news that Puk will be in the 2021 starting rotation, Jefferies will be moved to next man up, and he’s sure to rack up innings with Oakland’s injury prone rotation. He got roughed up in his 2 inning MLB debut (22.50 ERA), but more importantly his stuff looked good with a 94.5 MPH fastball and 5 pitch mix. He’s shown plus control and command in the minors (1.0 BB/9 in 2019) with his changeup as the money pitch. 2021 Projection: 7/4.26/1.28/116 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.85/1.22/160 in 160 IP

445) Craig Kimbrel CHC, Closer, 32.10 – BB% skyrocketed to 17.4% which led to a 1.44 WHIP and a 5.22 ERA. 2021 Projection: 2/3.71/1.26/90/29 in 58 IP

446) Richard Rodriguez PIT, Closer, 31.1 – Slider put up an insane 63.6% whiff% en route to a career high 36.6% K% and 5.4% BB%. 2021 Projection: 4/3.45/1.17/76/28 in 65 IP

447) Ryan McMahon COL, 2B/3B/1B, 26.4 – Career worst 34.2% K% led to a .215 BA. Hits it hard with a 90.1 MPH exit velocity, but a 50.5% GB% will put a cap on his power production. Arenado trade opens up playing time. 2021 Projection: 63/20/68/.242/.318/.431/3

448) Jake Diekman OAK, Closer, 34.2 – Favorite for the closer job with Hendricks gone. Diekman has a dominant fastball/slider combo that puts up big strikeout and walk totals. 2021 Projection: 3/3.42/1.28/79/28 in 61 IP

449) Daniel Vogelbach MIL, 1B, 28.4 – Had a great September for Milwaukee after being picked up off waivers, slashing .328/.418/.569 with 4 homers and an 18/8 K/BB in 67 PA. Still had only a .209 BA on the season and will need a DH to hold value. 2021 Projection: 51/18/54/.236/.348/.446/0

450) JaCoby Jones DET, OF, 29.1 – A fractured left hand wiped out the 2nd half of Jones season. He was in the midst of a surface stat breakout (127 wRC+), but the underlying numbers were the same as years past and his speed declined with a career low 27 ft/sec sprint speed and 1 steal in 30 games. 2021 Projection: 68/18/65/.238/.307/.431/7

451) JP Crawford SEA, SS, 26.3 – Brought K% down to 16.8% and continued to post high walk rates, but doesn’t hit the ball hard enough (85.8 MPH) or have enough speed (26.6 ft/sec sprint speed) to take advantage of the plus plate approach skills. 2021 Projection: 83/13/52/.251/.336/.377/9

452) Harrison Bader STL, OF, 26.10 – Continues to struggle vs righties (.668 OPS), but excellent CF defense keeps him on the field. Speed (29.4 ft/sec sprint speed), patience (10.4% BB%), and pop (15.7 degree launch + 94.4 MPH FB/LD exit velo) are all ready to explode if he can make improvements vs same side pitchers. 2021 Projection: 68/16/53/.240/.332/.423/13

453) Lewin Diaz MIA, 1B, 24.4 – Weak MLB debut with an 11 wRC+, 29.3%/4.9% K%/BB%, and an 86.4 MPH exit velocity, but the 41 PA sample is too small to draw any conclusions. He’s shown a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career and has plus raw power that he just started to tap into in 2019. 2021 Projection: July-26/9/31/.248/.302/.425/0 Prime Projection: 67/24/78/.271/.329/.462/1

454) Sherten Apostel TEX, 3B, 22.1 – Didn’t do much in his MLB debut with 2 hits in 21 PA, but the power still shined through on statcast with an 88.8/96.5 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. The 50% whiff% shows the risk. 2021 Projection: August-18/6/21/.225/.298/.416/1 Prime Projection: 73/28/85/.247/.339/.481/4

455) Cal Quantrill CLE, RHP, 26.2 – Will compete for the 5th starter job, and there isn’t a better place to be for a pitcher than Cleveland as they seem to have the magic touch. 1.84/1.09/13/2 pitching line in 14.2 IP in Cleveland debut does nothing to quell that hope. 2021 Projection: 7/4.10/1.28/126 in 135 IP

456) Michael Chavis BOS, 1B/OF, 25.8 – Was not able to build off a solid MLB debut in 2019. Whiff% remained far too high (38.3%) and BB% dropped 3% to 5.1%. He hits the ball hard (88.3 MPH exit velocity), but not hard enough to overcome the poor plate approach numbers. Poor defense is another thing he will have to overcome to remain in the lineup long term. 2021 Projection: 45/14/47/.233/.298/.423/3

457) Brent Rooker MIN, OF, 26.5 – Strong 21 PA MLB debut, slashing .316/.381/.579 with a 5/0 K/BB and an 89.1/98.8 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. It’s nice to see the power show up, but that wasn’t really in question, and the sample is too small to read anything into the 23.8% strikeout rate. 2021 Projection: 38/12/43/.242/.320/.451/1 Prime Projection: 67/25/81/.255/.342/.493/2

458) Alexander Canario SF, OF, 20.11 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn left labrum in November 2020. He received high marks at alternate camp by refining his plate approach and maturing as a hitter, which is good to hear considering the raw talent and plus power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/29/88/.251/.331/.492/10

459) Austin Wells NYY, C, 21.9 – Selected 28th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the lefty hitting Wells is an offensive minded catcher with a patient approach and power to all fields. College home run totals don’t exactly jump out at you (14 homers in 112 games including the Cape) and there are strikeout issues (103 K’s), but the Yankee Stadium short porch should help the power play up and his ability to hit to all fields gives him the chance to hit for average even with high strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.258/.343/.454/5

460) Reid Detmers LAA, LHP, 21.9 – Selected 10th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Detmers is a 6’2” lefty with plus command over low 90’s heat and a deadly curveball. He’s polish over stuff, but it didn’t stop him from piling up K’s in college (19.6 K/9 in 22 IP in 2020). Change has the potential to be above average while the slider lags behind. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.92/1.26/192 in 184 IP

461) Tyler Soderstrom OAK, C, 19.4 – Selected 26th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Soderstrom is an offensive minded catcher with the potential to hit for both average and power, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/23/76/.268/.335/.451/4

462) Yoelqui Cespedes CHW, OF, 23.6 – Recently packed on muscle weight and revamped his swing in order to get more power out of his 5’9”, 205 pound frame. He’s a plus runner and he has the bloodlines, but is mostly still a mystery. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/19/71/.255/.323/.428/15

463) Pedro Leon HOU, OF, 22.10 – Leon is an explosive athlete who has dominated in Cuba over two seasons, slashing .359/.420/.678 with 21 homers, 8 steals and a 46/20 K/BB in 65 games. He doesn’t have a long professional track record and the hit tool is questionable, but the upside is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/71/.243/.326/.443/12

464) Pedro Pineda OAK, OF, 17.7 – Pineda has possibly the highest upside in the international class with a plus power/speed combo and a quick bat that is geared for flyballs. He’s had some swing and miss problems and is still raw at the plate, so the risk is high. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.248/.327/.458/15

465) Misael Urbina MIN, OF, 18.11 – Proved his mature plate approach and plus contact ability will translate against advanced competition at instructs. He’s your prototypical top of the order bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 86/15/63/.282/.351/.434/21

466) Maximo Acosta TEX, SS, 18.5 – Acosta is known for his advanced plate approach and feel to hit with the potential for above average speed and power. The skills are there for him to fly up prospect lists with a good pro debut. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/21/81/.277/.339/.448/16

467) Reginald Preciado CHC, SS, 17.10 – Preciado performed well at instructs against much older competition. He is 6’4”, 185 pounds with a consistent track record of hitting, and his projectable frame gives him the chance to grow into plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 77/25/85/.274/.346/.473/6

468) Ethan Hankins CLE, RHP, 21.10 – Continued to refine his secondaries at alternate camp which is the key to unlock his full potential. He’s 6’6”, 200 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and plus athleticism. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.88/1.28/181 in 173 IP

469) Brice Turang MIL, SS, 21.4 – Turang came to the alt site with added strength and started to hit the ball harder. He is a prototypical leadoff hitter with a good feel to hit, plus plate approach, and plus speed. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 83/15/58/.273/.345/.411/23

470) Peyton Burdick MIA, OF, 24.1 – Impressed at alternate camp with his prodigious power and good feel to hit. He hit 10 homers with a 91 MPH average exit velocity in 63 games at Full-A in 2019. He was a popular sleeper pick coming into 2020 and he seemed to live up to the hype if the reports are accurate. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/25/82/.256/.332/.464/9

471) Hudson Head PIT, OF, 20.0 – Hamstring injury limited Head in 2020. He is an aggressive player with plus speed and plus bat speed that generates the potential for plus power at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.261/.332/.432/23

472) Chris Rodriguez LAA, RHP, 22.8 – Stress reaction in his back which required surgery in May knocked out all of his 2018 and all but 9.1 innings in 2019. His stuff is absolutely nasty when he is the mound with the potential for 4 plus pitches headlined by mid 90’s heat. High risk, high reward prospect. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.89/1.27/152 in 145 IP

473) Kyle Muller ATL, LHP, 23.6 – Throws a double plus mid 90’s fastball with high spin rates, but needs to improve his secondaries and his control to remain a starter. 2021 Projection: 1/4.51/1.42/29 in 28 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.92/1.33/175 in 168 IP

474) Alek Manoah TOR, RHP, 23.3 – Manoah is 6’6”, 260 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball, a potentially plus slider, and a developing change that he focused on improving at the alt site. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.89/1.27/176 in 169 IP

475) Blake Walston ARI, LHP, 19.9 – Walston is a projectable 6’5”, 195 pounds with a 4 pitch mix headlined by a fastball than can already reach the mid 90’s and a plus slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.83/1.26/179 in 173 IP

476) Aaron Sabato MIN, 1B, 21.10 – Selected 27th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Sabato is a 6’2”, 230 pound 1B only prospect who smashed 25 homers in 83 games in the ACC. He’s a patient hitter with some swing and miss concerns. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/25/81/.252/.337/.469/0

477) Rece Hinds CIN, 3B, 20.7 – Hinds has at least double plus power, and with news of an improved hit tool at the alt site and instructs, he has a chance to fly up prospect lists in 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/28/77/.242/.314/.473/2

478) Cade Cavalli WASH, RHP, 22.7 – Selected 22nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cavalli has a prototypical starter build at 6’4”, 226 pounds with mid 90’s heat, two swing and miss breaking balls, and a developing changeup. He’s had injury issues which has prevented him from pitching very much and there are control problems too, so the risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.06/1.33/151 in 156 IP

479) Matt Barnes BOS, Closer, 30.10 – Control is an issue with a 13.7% BB% and while his K% is still good, it dropped 8.2% to 30.4% 2021 Projection: 4/3.94/1.35/91/28 in 63 IP

480) Myles Straw HOU, OF, 26.5 – Light hitting, speedy fourth outfielder who is currently slated to be Houston’s starting CF. 2021 Projection: 73/4/41/.252/.328/.353/22

481) Cesar Hernandez CLE, 2B, 30.11 – Didn’t attempt a single steal in 58 games which is not a good sign as he enters his 30’s. 2021 Projection: 77/13/62/.274/.346/.403/7

482) Orlando Arcia MIL, SS, 26.8 – Career best 16.9% K% and 96 wRC+. Power/speed aren’t going to win you any titles, but he could be serviceable in deeper leagues. 2021 Projection: 68/15/66/.265/.320/.402/8

483) Jon Berti MIA, 2B/OF, 31.2 – Whiff% dropped 5% to a career best 19.6% and BB% soared 7% to a career high 15.4%. Remained one of the fastest players in the game with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed and 9 steals in 34 games. 2021 Projection: 68/8/51/.270/.351/.389/23

484) Jose Leclerc TEX, Closer, 27.3 – Shoulder strain ended his season after 2 IP. When healthy, Leclerc has explosive stuff that has produced high strikeout and walk rates. 2021 Projection: 3/3.81/1.29/84/27 in 58 IP

485) Hunter Harvey BAL, Closer, 26.5 – Injuries reared their ugly head again with elbow soreness limiting him to 8.2 IP. He is the favorite to close in 2021 with his 97.3 MPH fastball. 2021 Projection: 3/4.11/1.26/59/24 in 57 IP

486) Brendan McKay TB, LHP, 25.4 – Underwent shoulder surgery in August. There is no timetable, but it’s doubtful he will be ready for the start of 2021 at the very least. Before the injury, he showed plus command of a 4 pitch mix, but none of his pitches were standout. 2021 Projection: 2/4.21/1.28/46 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.77/1.22/171 in 167 IP

487) Yoshi Tsutsugo TB, 3B/OF, 29.4 – The power and patience translated with a 14.1% BB%, 8 homers, 17.2 degree launch, and 90.2/95.2 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity in 185 PA. .197 BA dropped his overall line, but a lot of that was likely bad luck (.230 BABIP), and a 23.2% whiff% is actually above average. 2021 Projection: 63/24/66/.248/.349/.465/1

488) CJ Cron FA, 1B, 31.3 – Underwent season ending knee surgery in August after playing in only 13 games. Could be a battle for playing time depending on who he signs with. 2021 Projection: 53/23/62/.247/.314/.465/1

489) Josh Naylor CLE, OF, 23.10 – Made excellent contact (11.5% K%) but weak exit velocity (86.8 MPH) led to 4 extra base hits in 104 PA. He hit the ball much harder last year (89.6 MPH) and was known for plus raw power in the minors, so the ingredients are there for a possible breakout. 2021 Projection: 62/15/67/.268/.335/.429/3

490) Trevor Rosenthal FA, Closer, 30.10 – Major bounce back season with a pitching line of 1.90/0.85/38/8/11 saves in 23.2 IP. He throws 97.9 MPH heat with a plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/3.58/1.31/78/28 in 55 IP

491) Chris Martin ATL, Closer Committee, 34.10 – Should have at least a share of the closer job. Martin killed it in 2020 with a pitching line of 1.00/0.61/20/3 in 18 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.35/1.11/66/25 in 57 IP

492) Luis Medina NYY, RHP, 21.11 – Dominated in the Puerto Rico Winter League with a 15/2 K/BB, 3 hits, and 0 ER in 7 IP. Continuing to improve control/command will be key as he has some of the best swing and miss stuff in the minors with upper 90’s heat and the potential for two plus secondaries (curve, change). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.33/189 in 168 IP

493) Khris Davis TEX, DH, 33.3 – Turned into a short side of a platoon player in 2020 due to struggles vs. righies (.513 OPS in 2020 and .589 OPS in 2019). 2021 Projection: 61/25/71/.231/.316/.472/0

494) Mike Minor KC, LHP, 33.2 – Velocity was down 1.9 MPH on the 4-seamer to a career low 90.6 MPH, and it resulted in a 5.56 ERA in 56.2 IP. On the plus side, Minor was still able to miss bats with a 27.3% whiff% and 9.8 K/9. 2021 Projection: 10/4.26/1.25/161 in 170 IP

495) Willi Castro DET, SS, 24.0 – Power broke out with 6 homers in 36 games but a 85.3/89.1 MPH average/FB exit velocity leaves me extremely hesitant to buy in. 2021 Projection: 69/15/67/.256/.311/.413/7

496) Yandy Diaz TB, 3B, 29.8 – Took his groundball ways to another level with a 66% GB% and a negative 7.6 degree launch angle. Notched career highs in K% (12.3%) and BB% (16.7%), but exit velocity dropped 3.4 MPH to 88.3 MPH. 2021 Projection: 73/15/56/.276/.359/.415/2

497) Danny Santana TEX, 1B/OF, 30.5 – Arm issues tanked his season and ultimately underwent a form of Tommy John surgery in September with a 7-8 month timetable. He was still hitting the ball hard in the 15 games he did play in (90.9 MPH exit velocity), but his speed fell (26.8 ft/sec sprint speed) and K% skyrocketed (38.1%) 2021 Projection: 32/10/34/.235/.295/.413/7

498) Yasel Antuna WASH, SS, 21.6 – Missed almost all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery and leg injuries, but was able to show off his monster potential at the alt site in 2020, impressing with his hitting ability and power potential. Antuna has a chance to be a big riser in 2021. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/23/81/.271/.338/.457/8

499) Dylan Cease CHW, RHP, 25.3 – 4.01 ERA was far better than he deserved with a 44/34 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP and 6.65 xERA in 58.1 IP. 25.3% whiff% wasn’t nearly as bad as his 17.3% K%, and velocity hit a career high 97.5 MPH, so there are some silver linings to take away. 2021 Projection: 8/4.38/1.40/147 in 150 IP

500) David Peterson NYM, LHP, 25.7 – 3.44 ERA outpaced his 4.39 xERA, but overall it was a solid MLB debut for Peterson showing the ability to induce groundballs (44.4% GB%) and weak contact (87.4 MPH exit velo against). 19.5% K% is weak, but a 26.2% whiff% shows the potential for more. 2021 Projection: 9/4.36/1.36/133 in 150 IP

501) Aaron Schunk COL, 3B, 23.8 – Schunk’s game power broke out his junior year in the SEC, hitting .339 with 15 homers and a 29/14 K/BB in 57 games. He kept it going at Short-A in his pro debut, slashing .306/.370/.503 with 6 homers and a 25/14 K/BB in 46 games. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 77/20/76/.273/.335/.431/6

502) Michael Toglia COL, 1B, 22.7 – Switch hitter who is stronger from the left side, but made adjustments to his right handed swing at alternate camp which resulted in 3 homers from the right side to close out the “season.” ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/26/84/.252/.334/.466/2

503) Jackson Kowar KC, RHP, 24.6 – Double plus changeup with a mid 90’s fastball, but breaking ball lags behind. 2021 Projection: 3/4.41/1.38/63 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.96/1.32/168 in 174 IP

504) Justin Foscue TEX, 2B/3B, 22.0 – Selected 14th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Foscue has the potential for plus hit but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/19/71/.276/.339/.434/5

505) Ed Howard CHC, SS, 19.8 – Selected 16th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Howard’s best skill is his plus shortstop defense. The bat isn’t as strong, although he has hit well against top competition and will certainly add power at 6’2”, 185 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/20/77/.264/.335/.444/9

506) Nick Bitsko TB, RHP, 18.10 – Selected 24th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Bitsko is one of the youngest players in the draft due to reclassifying and coming out a year early. At 6’4”, 220 pounds he has prototypical starter size with a fastball that has touched 98 MPH and features a nasty curveball as his money pitch. He throws strikes and shows good feel on his lesser used changeup. Underwent surgery to repair a labrum issue in December and is expected to miss some of 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 11/3.93/1.29/181 in 178 IP

507) Isaiah Greene NYM, OF, 19.7 – Selected 69th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Greene is a 6’1”, 180 pound lefty with plus speed and a swing geared for contact. He’s a great athlete with room to fill out his frame, so the power may come. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/18/71/.267/.333/.431/20

508) Freddy Peralta MIL, Setup, 24.10 – Served in the long man role but could easily find his way back into the rotation at some point in 2021. He’s always struck a ton of guys out, but he took it to the next level in 2020 with career highs in whiff% (up 10.3% to 39.8%) and K/9 (14.4). 2021 Projection: 5/3.87/1.24/129 in 91 IP

509) Brusdar Graterol LAD, Setup, 22.7 – The big stuff was there in 23.1 IP with a 99.3 MPH sinker and plus slider, but the strikeouts weren’t with a 15.2% whiff% and 5.01 K/9. The whiff% was weak in 2019 too at 8.7% in 9.2 IP, so it might not be a complete aberration. 2021 Projection: 3/3.73/1.16/61 in 67 IP

510) Kyle Wright ATL, RHP, 25.9 – The great stuff doesn’t match the results with another rough season, putting up a pitching line of 5.21/1.55/30/24 in 38 IP. He’s still only pitched 63.2 innings in his career, so it’s too early to throw in the towel. 2021 Projection: 7/4.59/1.41/117 in 130 IP

511) Wilmer Flores SF, 1B/2B, 29.8 – FB/LD exit velocity jumped 2.8 MPH to 92.1 MPH en route to 12 homers and a career high .247 ISO. It came at the cost of some swing and miss with his K% jumping 6% to a still very good 16.9%. 2021 Projection: 63/18/67/.274/.325/.470/1

512) Jose Garcia CIN, SS, 23.0 – Struggled across the board in his 68 PA MLB debut with poor marks in exit velocity (86.6 MPH), K% (38.2%), BB% (1.5%), and speed (26.7 ft/sec). His bat wasn’t ready at all. 2021 Projection: 66/13/58/.248/.297/.391/8 Prime Projection: 72/18/74/.263/.318/.416/9

513) Jared Oliva PIT, OF, 25.4 – Went 3 for 16 with 6 strikeouts in his MLB debut, but statcast was kinder to him with a 29 ft/sec sprint speed and 93.2 MPH exit velocity. Plus speed and defense are his calling cards. 2021 Projection: 38/4/32/.248/.310/.385/9 Prime Projection: 77/13/52/.263/.328/.401/24

514) Ty France SEA, 2B, 26.9 – Exit velocity plummeted 3.2 MPH to 85.7 MPH leading to only 4 homers in 155 PA. .390 BABIP buoyed a .305 BA. 2021 Projection: 52/16/57/.268/.329/.435/1

515) Brent Honeywell TB, RHP, 26.0 – Underwent a 4th elbow surgery in December 2020 which Tampa is calling a minor procedure. He had surgery in June 2019 to repair a fractured right elbow which he suffered while rehabbing from 2017 Tommy John surgery. The elbow problems are making it hard to keep the faith. 2021 Projection: July-2/4.45/1.36/28 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.11/1.31/138 in 138 IP

516) Jackson Rutledge WASH, RHP, 22.0 – Rutledge is 6’8”, 250 pounds with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for three quality secondaries, most notably his plus slider. He worked on improving his control and command in 2020. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.76/1.28/167 in 165 IP

517) Miguel Hiraldo TOR, SS, 20.7 – Power took a step forward in 2019, hitting 7 homers in 56 games in the Appy League while maintaining strong contact numbers (14.1%). He was considered one of the better hitters in the 2017 international class and has lived up to his reputation. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.272/.334/.458/7

518) Kameron Misner MIA, OF, 23.3 – Physical specimen at 6’4”, 219 pounds, Misner has a plus power/speed combo but currently has more raw power than game power. He is ultra patient at the plate, sometimes to his detriment. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 82/23/76/.256/.342/.448/16

519) Braxton Garrett MIA, LHP, 23.8 – Showed off his dominant curveball in his 7.2 IP MLB debut with a 50.7 whiff%, and the change played well too (40% whiff%), but his 89.6 MPH fastball got absolutely crushed with a 1.133 slugging against. 2021 Projection: 4/4.38/1.34/76 in 81 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.31/169 in 173 IP

520) Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS, 19.1 – Has hit really well at instructs but without much power, and at 5’10”, 155 pounds there is a question as to how much power potential there is down the line. He does have speed and it’s tough not to love the bloodlines. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 82/14/66/.283/.352/.419/20

521) Ryan Jeffers MIN, C, 23.10 – Stepped in when Mitch Garver went down and he took advantage of the opportunity, slashing .273/.355/.436 with 3 homers and a 91.6/99.4 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. 30.6% K% was high, but his minor league numbers show the potential for that to come down. 2021 Projection: 36/10/38/.247/.323/.431/0 Prime Projection: 64/23/69/.261/.337/.462/1

522) Seth Beer ARI, 1B, 24.7 – The DH will be crucial for Beer’s playing time projections. Even with a DH, we’ve seen players like this struggle to get playing time even if they rake. 2021 Projection: July-23/10/28/.254/.325/.456/0 Prime Projection: 63/26/75/.269/.338/.483/1

523) Keibert Ruiz LAD, C, 22.8 – Focused on increasing his power production at alternate camp, and it paid off immediately with him uncorking a dinger in his 2 game MLB debut. He has plus hitting ability with elite contact rates, so increased power can take him to the next level.. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 68/17/64/.280/.331/.422/0

524) Mark Vientos NYM, 3B, 21.4 – Came to alternate camp showing increased strength and the ability to hit the ball out of the park going the other way. He’s 6’4”, 185 pounds and was already smoking the ball with a 91 MPH exit velocity in 2019, so the power potential is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/28/85/.254/.326/.477/3

525) Brett Baty NYM, 3B, 21.5 – Showed up to alternate camp in the “best shape of his life” and continued to show off his all fields power and selective plate approach. How much the hit tool can improve will dictate his ceiling. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 76/26/83/.254/.341/.473/2

526) Ryan Pepiot LAD, RHP, 23.7 – Has one of the best changeups in the minors and now his fastball ticked up into the mid 90’s at alternate camp. He’s had control problems throughout his career, and will need to prove he can hold that velocity over the course of a full season. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.90/1.32/176 in 164

527) Sam Huff TEX, C, 23.3 – The power was not undersold as Huff smashed 3 homers with a 100.8 MPH FB/LD exit velocity in his 33 PA MLB debut. The strikeouts weren’t undersold either as he notched a 40.7% whiff%, while a .471 BABIP buoyed his .355 BA. 2021 Projection: 33/12/39/.231/.291/.429/1 Prime Projection: 62/25/77/.242/.309/.453/3

528) Corey Dickerson MIA, OF, 31.10 – Exit velocity dropped 1.6 MPH to a well below average 85.5 MPH which led to a .258 BA. 2021 Projection: 74/19/63/.275/.326/.446/4

529) Garrett Cooper MIA, 1B, 30.3 – Posted career bests in K% (23.3%) and ISO (.217). He doesn’t hit that many fly balls (28.1% FB%), but he has consistently produced high BABIP’s (career .358 BABIP). 2021 Projection: 66/18/64/.268/.337/.444/1

530) Adam Duvall FA, OF, 32.7 – He mashes but it comes with playing time concerns and a low BA and OBP. 2021 Projection: 53/22/61/.240/.306/.481/1

531) Enrique Hernandez BOS, 2B/OF, 29.7 – Makes good contact (20.9% K%), hits the ball hard (88.5 MPH exit velocity), and hits it in the air (16.2 degree launch angle). He’ll have the first shot to hold down the 2B job in Boston. 2021 Projection: 61/17/63/.243/.314/.444/3

532) Chad Pinder OAK, 2B/OF, 29.0 – Continues to absolutely smash the ball with a 92.3/96.8 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity. Notched career bests in K% (21.3%),BB% (8.2%), and launch angle (13.7 degrees). 2021 Projection: 58/18/63/.248/.312/.448/0

533) Luis Urias MIL, 3B/2B, 23.10 – GB% spiked back up to 62.3% after dropping to 49.1% in 2019, and strikeout rate jumped 4.2% to 26.7%. It led to a poor season with 0 homers and a .239 BA in 120 PA. 2021 Projection: 57/11/53/.256/.332/.399/5

534) Shogo Akiyama CIN, OF, 33.0 – Poor MLB debut with 0 homers and a .245 BA, but there were some positive takeaways. 18.6%/13.7% K%/BB% is very strong and he showed a willingness to run with 7 steals in 54 games. He hits at the top of the order in the strong side of a platoon role. 2021 Projection: 63/10/46/.268/.351/.401/14

535) Colin Moran PIT, 1B, 28.6 – Power broke out with a 91.9 MPH exit velocity and 10 homers in 200 PA. He’s a strong side of a platoon bat who might see everyday at-bats because Pitt is devoid of talent. 2021 Projection: 65/20/73/.260/.327/.446/0

536) Jason Heyward CHC, OF, 31.8 – Built off 2019’s mini power resurgence by notching his highest ISO (.190) since 2012. He’s becoming a more patient hitter with his swing% dropping to a career low 36.7%. 2021 Projection: 74/18/67/.259/.351/.430/6

537) Ji-Man Choi TB, 1B, 29.11 – Homerun power dropped off with only 3 homers in 145 PA, and average exit velocity dropped 2.2 MPH to a career low 89 MPH, but his FB/LD exit velocity remained strong at 94.5 MPH so a bounce back is likely. 2021 Projection: 56/18/63/.255/.353/.453/1

538) Cedric Mullins BAL, OF, 26.6 – Plus speed (28.7 ft/sec sprint speed) with average pop (88.6 MPH exit velocity with a 15.6 degree launch) and a good feel to hit (22.8% whiff%), but will have to scratch and claw for playing time. 2021 Projection: 51/10/42/.261/.311/.407/13

539) Andy Pages LAD, OF, 20.4 – Prodigious power with 19 homers and a 53.5% FB% in 63 games in 2019. It comes with some strikeouts, but the hitting skills are there for that to improve, and he should chip in some stolen bases too. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/29/80/.247/.331/.471/6

540) Jordan Walker STL, 3B, 18.10 – Selected 21st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Walker is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a quick, athletic swing and plus power. Like many hitters this tall, there are questions about the ultimate hit tool. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/24/75/.262/.335/.456/7

541) Jake Vogel LAD, OF, 19.6 – Selected 100th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Vogel’s calling card is his double plus speed and excellent athleticism. He’s only 5’11”, 165 pounds, but he has sneaky pop evidenced by a top exit velocity of 97 MPH at a 2019 Perfect game event which puts him in the top 4% of his class. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 78/16/71/.261/.327/.418/23

542) Hector Neris PHI, Closer Committee, 31.10 – Splitter continued to dominate with a 50% whiff%, throwing it 48.1% of the time. 2021 Projection: 3/3.82/1.29/74/25 in 65 IP

543) Taylor Rogers MIN, Closer Committee, 30.4 – Dominates with a plus sinker/slider combo. .400 BABIP was the main reason for the 4.05 ERA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.31/1.16/81/20 in 65 IP

544) Greg Holland KC, Closer, 35.4 – Rejuvenated season with a pitching line of 2.52/0.93/31.7 in 28.1 IP. He did it on the back of his plus slider, throwing it 51.3% of the time with a .209 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.91/1.31/59/24 in 56 IP

545) Rafael Montero SEA, Closer, 30.5 – Andres Munoz is lurking, but Montero is the favorite for saves in 2021. He throws mid 90’s heat with a plus changeup as his out pitch. 2021 Projection: 3/4.02/1.21/63/28 in 58 IP

546) Joakim Soria ARI, Closer Committee, 36.10 – He’ll compete for the closer job and is probably the favorite. K% was a bit on the low side and BB% on the high side compared to his career numbers, but production remained solid with a 2.82 ERA in 22.1 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.82/1.27/65/26 in 62 IP

547) Emilio Pagan SD, Closer Committee, 29.11 – Could win at least a share of the closer job. He struggled early in the season but closed the year out with a 1.64 ERA and 13/2 K/BB in 11 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.68/1.10/73/15 in 64 IP

548) Alex Colome MIN, Closer Committee, 32.3 – Threw his cutter 71.6% of the time and put up a .212 xwOBA on the pitch. He’ll be in the mix for saves in Minnesota. 2021 Projection: 3/3.51/1.19/59/18 in 65 IP

549) Diego Castillo TB, Closer Committee, 27.2 – Threw his plus slider 64.7% of the time, putting up a .198 xwOBA. 2020 Projection: 3/3.30/1.16/69/12 in 65 IP

550) Will Smith ATL, Closer Committee, 31.9 – Seems like the Braves prefer Smith in a setup role, but he should still his fair share of saves. He struggled with the long ball in 2020, giving up 7 homers with a 4.50 ERA in 16 IP, but the 18/4 K/BB was still strong. 2021 Projection: 3/3.48/1.12/75/10 in 62 IP

551) Isan Diaz MIA, 2B, 24.10 – Opted out of the 2020 season after the first 2 games, then had a change of heart in September only to suffer a season ending groin injury a few days later. Announced he will compete for the starting 2B job with Jazz Chisholm. 2021 Projection: 41/11/45/.231/.307/.402/3

552) Mitch Garver MIN, C, 30.2 – Intercostal strain knocked Garver out for a month, and he might have lost his starting job in the process with Ryan Jeffers stepping in and outplaying him (.791 OPS vs. .511 OPS). 2021 Projection: 41/13/45/.242/.327/.441/1

553) Justin Dunn SEA, RHP, 25.6 – Below average 19.2% K% and 15.7% BB% to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity against and 21 degree launch angle is not a recipe for success. Fastball velocity was down to 91.2 MPH, so you can’t point to nasty stuff as a sign of hope. 2021 Projection: 6/4.68/1.43/124 in 141 IP

554) Reyes Moronta SF, Closer, 28.2 – Missed all of 2020 after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum and is expected to be healthy for 2020. He throws a 3 pitch mix headlined by a 97.2 MPH fastball and plus slider. No guarantee he wins the closer job but he seems to be the favorite. 2021 Projection: 2/3.73/1.29/66/21 in 53 IP

555) Amir Garrett CIN, Closer Committee, 28.11 – Has been very public about wanting the closer job. Garrett throws his slider 55.5% of the time and it put up a .227 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 3/3.61/1.29/73/15 in 60 IP

556) Stefan Crichton ARI, Closer Committee, 29.1 – He’ll compete for the closer job with Soria. He leans heavily on his sinker which he throws 60.4% of the time to go along with a plus curve. 2021 Projection: 3/3.90/1.27/55/14 in 58 IP

557) Evan Longoria SF, 3B, 35.6 – Exit velocity rose 2 MPH to a career high 91.7 MPH but it didn’t impact his overall numbers all that much with a .722 OPS. 2021 Projection: 66/22/76/.264/.321/.445/2

558) Miguel Andujar NYY, 3B/OF, 26.1 – Poor defense has Andujar on the outside looking in for playing time. He hasn’t been all that great with the bat either in limited opportunities (.632 OPS in 65 PA in 2020). 2021 Projection: 33/9/36/.268/.310/.466/1

559) Abraham Toro HOU, 3B, 24.4 – Hasn’t hit the ball very hard in 186 MLB PA spread across 2019 and 2020 with a 86.5 MPH exit velocity. He hasn’t had a problem making contact with a 22.6% K%, but he’s gonna need to hit the ball harder to make an impact. 2021 Projection: 28/6/31/.251/.322/.409/3 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.336/.451/7

560) Luis Garcia WASH, 2B, 20.10 – Strong strikeout rates mostly transferred to the majors with a 20.9% K%, but so did his poor plate approach (3.6% BB%) and weak contact (83.4 MPH exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 49/8/38/.263/.302/.397/5 Prime Projection: 81/21/73/.283/.338/.444/10

561) Corbin Martin ARI, RHP, 25.3 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2019 and other than an oblique strain in August, all reports of his recovery were positive. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 95.5 MPH fastball, and could be the next man up in Arizona. 2021 Projection: 4/4.34/1.36/85 in 86 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.98/1.31/175 in 170 IP

562) Daz Cameron DET, OF, 24.2 – Slashed .193/.220/.263 in 59 PA in his MLB debut, but the underlying numbers show there is hope. 26.5 whiff% is better than his 32.2% K%, and the exit velocity numbers weren’t too bad (87.1/93.5 MPH AVG/FB exit velo). He has above average speed and there are OF jobs in Detroit to be won. 2021 Projection: 43/8/36/.237/.309/.398/8 Prime Projection: 76/18/71/.253/.331/.427/15

563) Gabriel Arias CLE, SS, 21.1 – Came on in the 2nd half of 2019, slashing .355/.385/.565 with 10 homers and a 48/11 K/BB in final 51 games at High-A. He’s still raw at the plate, but has near plus raw power and an improving hit tool. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 67/22/74/.254/.310/.436/6

564) Bryson Stott PHI, SS, 23.5 – Stott has solid skills across the board but is without a carrying tool. Should chip in a little bit in every category. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/19/72/.268/.334/.427/14

565) Luis Rodriguez LAD, OF, 18.7 – Only reps he got this year was in the Dominican Instructional League. Rodriguez makes hard contact to all fields with a line drive approach and above average speed. At 6’2”, 175 pounds he has the chance to grow into more power, although it is not expected to be a major part of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 84/20/72/.278/.347/.441/12

566) Yusniel Diaz BAL, OF, 24.6 – Performed well and showed good power at alt camp. Hasn’t had the full on breakout that would win him a full time job, but has the talent to slowly work his way into the lineup. 2021 Projection: 28/7/28/.251/.312/.419/1 Prime Projection: 72/22/77/.267/.331/.449/7

567) Luis Toribio SF, 3B, 20.6 – Worked on turning his considerable raw power into game power at instructs. Toribio is physically mature with an advanced plate approach and strong exit velocity readings. Here he is ripping a 111 MPH single. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/22/79/.264/.348/.452/3

568) Khalil Lee KC, OF, 22.9 – 28.2% K% and 59.3% GB% in 2019 is a horrible combination, but he has a plus power/speed combo and was 20/21 years old at Double-A. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 78/21/72/.253/.336/.443/17

569) Anderson Tejeda TEX, SS, 22.11 – Made his MLB debut in 2020 and played as advertised with high strikeout rates (39% K% in 77 PA) and plus power potential (98.9 MPH FB/LD exit velocity with a 14.3 degree launch angle). 2021 Projection: 42/12/47/.228/.290/.423/6 Prime Projection: 69/25/81/.242/.321/.453/9

570) Kevin Kiermaier TB, OF, 30.11 – Plus defensive center fielder with plus speed and moderate power. Notched careers highs in K% (26.4%) and BB% (12.6%) in 2020. 2021 Projection: 58/13/54/.233/.305/.398/17

571) Tristen Lutz MIL, OF, 22.7 – Strikeout rates are high but he has double plus raw power and doesn’t sell out for homers. He continued to work on refining his approach in 2020. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 74/25/82/.263/.340/.473/6

572) Tanner Burns CLE, RHP, 22.3 – Selected 36th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Burns has a history of excellent production in the SEC with a pitching line of 2.86/1.17/210/67 in 188.2 career IP. He has plus command over a fastball he can ramp up to 87 MPH, to go along with a plus breaking ball and average change. He’s on the small side at 6’0”, 215 pounds and had shoulder problems in 2019, so durability is a concern. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.15/1.27/162 in 168 IP

573) Maikol Hernandez BAL, SS, 17.6 – At 6’3”, 175 pounds, Hernandez has loads of upside with plus speed and the potential for plus power. He’s currently an all fields, line drive hitter who consistently makes hard contact. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/24/78/.259/.327/.452/12

574) Travis Swaggerty PIT, OF, 23.9 – Showed off improved pull side power at the alt site to go along with plus outfield defense. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 77/18/71/.264/.331/.421/16

575) Ryan Vilade COL, SS, 22.1 – Made adjustments to unlock more of his plus raw power in 2019, lowering GB% 10% to 42.9% and hitting 12 homers in 128 games at High-A. He did so while maintaining a strong plate approach (16.2% K%/9.5% BB%) ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 77/19/73/.276/.340/.434/8

576) JJ Goss TB, RHP, 20.3 – Fastball ticked up at instructs and continued to show a swing and miss slider and good feel for a changeup. He throws strikes and knows how to pitch. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 12/3.81/1.24/173 in 171 IP

577) Alexander Ramirez NYM, OF, 18.3 – Signed for $2.05 million in 2019, Ramirez is a great athlete with a projectable 6’3”, 170 pound frame and a good feel to hit. He was one of my favorite late round targets in 2019/20 first year player drafts. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/22/76/.267/.341/.451/16

578) Jhoan Duran MIN, RHP, 23.3 – Fastball can reach triple digits and throws a plus low 90’s sinker/splitter hybrid. Bullpen risk is high ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 10/3.96/1.34/157 in 162 IP

579) Bobby Miller LAD, RHP, 22.0 – Selected 29th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Miller is 6’5”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball that reaches the upper 90’s, a plus slider, and a potentially plus changeup. 2020 was the first year he was going to be a full time starter, and his delivery indicates some bullpen risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.29/149 in 151 IP

580) Ismael Mena CHC, OF, 18.4 – Signed for $2.2 million in 2019, Mena is a lean 6’3”, 185 pounds with a line drive approach, developing power, and plus speed. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/18/71/.262/.330/.424/17

581) Josh Wolf CLE, RHP, 20.7 – Wolf is an athletic and projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds whose fastball should sit in the mid 90s at peak with a plus breaking ball and developing change. Trade to the pitching prospect paradise of Cleveland can only help his development. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.96/1.30/167 in 169 IP

582) Bo Naylor CLE, C, 21.1 – Played well at alt camp, showing off an advanced hit tool and mature plate approach. He only has about average power, but he does have some speed which gives him the chance to be an all category contributor from the catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/18/71/.271/.344/.432/7

583) Jeremy Pena HOU, SS, 23.6 – Played well in the Domincan Winter League, slashing .306/.349/.430 with 3 homers, 7 steals, and a 23/7 K/BB in 30 games. He is a plus defender with above average speed and a solid plate approach, but power remains below average. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/15/69/.262/.331/.405/14

584) Zach DeLoach SEA, OF, 22.7 – Selected 43rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, DeLoach exploded in the 2019 Cape Cod League with a .353/.428/.541 triple-slash after disappointing with a .611 OPS in the SEC earlier that year. He carried over the Cape Cod league success in 2020 with a 1.336 OPS, 6 steals and a 3/14 K/BB in 18 games. He doesn’t have any elite tools, but has the chance to be an all category contributor. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/74/.267/.333/.434/12

585) Alexander Vargas NYY, SS, 19.5 – Showed plus contact ability in 2019 (12.7% K%) with plus speed (13 steals) and should start hitting the ball with more authority as he gets stronger. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 81/14/62/.272/.338/.411/21

586) Brennan Malone PIT, RHP, 20.7 – Malone is a power pitcher who throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a potentially plus fastball/slider combo. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 13/3.83/1.26/187 in 178 IP

587) Tyler Callihan CIN, 2B/3B, 20.9 – Callihan has plus power with an aggressive approach at the plate and limited defensive value. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 67/25/81/.267/.328/.465/3

588) Ryan Weathers SD, LHP, 21.4 – Impressed San Diego enough at alt camp for them to put him on the postseason roster where he made his MLB debut with 1.1 scoreless IP. His stuff ticked up in 2020, giving him the potential for 3 above average pitches to go along with his advanced feel to pitch and plus control. 2021 Projection: 2/4.28/1.31/44 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.82/1.25/169 in 178 IP

589) Antoine Kelly MIL, LHP, 21.4 – Kelly impressed at the alternate site with added velocity and improved secondaries. He is 6’6”, 205 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball, plus slider and average change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.84/1.27/166 in 163 IP

590) Cole Winn TEX, RHP, 21.4 – Took a step forward in 2020 with his fastball ticking up into the mid 90’s and showing improved secondaries. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 12/3.95/1.29/174 in 178 IP

591) Bayron Lora TEX, OF, 18.6 – Signed for $3.9 million in 2019, Lora is 6’5”, 230 pounds with double plus raw power, but it comes with some swing and miss. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/28/82/.249/.326/.494/3

592) Alexfri Planez CLE, OF, 19.8 – Big time power potential with a raw, aggressive approach at the plate and above average speed. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/25/77/.254/.322/.471/8

593) Gilberto Celestino MIN, OF, 22.2 – Plus contact/speed profile with a 90 MPH average exit velocity. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/14/65/.273/.332/.408/16

594) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS, 20.10 – 13.5% K% and 18 steals in 46 games at Full-A in 2019. Peraza has plus athleticism with above average raw power that he hasn’t been able to fully tap into yet. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/14/65/.263/.322/.410/19

595) Jeremy De La Rosa WASH, OF, 19.2 – Advanced enough to go straight to stateside ball as a 17 year old in 2019, and Washington continued to push him in 2020 by bringing him to the alt site where he was able to hold his own against advanced competition. De La Rosa is an excellent athlete with the potential for average to above average production across the board. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.264/.336/.445/9

596) Braden Shewmake ATL, SS, 23.4 – Showed in 2019 that his plus contact skills and plus speed would transfer to pro ball with a 12.8% K% and 11 steals in 51 games at Full-A. At 6’4”, 190 pounds, there should be some more power in the tank as well. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.272/.330/.421/16

597) Wilderd Patino ARI, OF, 19.9 – Made improvements to his swing and showed more pop at instructs in 2020. He hit a “huge home run” against Reid Detmers. He is a tooled up, high upside power/speed combo but there are concerns over the hit tool. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/72/.251/.333/.441/18

598) Parker Meadows DET, OF, 21.5 – Showed off his plus athleticism at alt camp in 2020. Full season debut in 2019 was underwhelming with a .221/.296/.312 triple-slash, but a 22.4% K% and 9.3% BB% is very encouraging considering the plus athleticism and power/speed combo. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 75/20/71/.253/.331/.432/14

599) Keoni Cavaco MIN, SS, 19.10 – High risk, high reward prospect with a plus power/combo but is a major hit tool risk (35/4 K/BB in 25 game pro debut in 2019). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/25/76/.241/.298/.449/11

600) Ethan Small MIL, LHP, 24.2 – Small doesn’t have big stuff but he racks up strikeouts with deception and plus command. He struck out 168 batters in 102 IP in the SEC and then came into pro ball in 2019 and did the same thing with a 36/4 K/BB in 21 IP at mostly Full-A. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/4.06/1.28/173 in 171 IP

601) Zack Thompson STL, LHP, 23.5 – Thompson throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a high spin rate, plus curveball. He has some injury red flags and needs to improve his command. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.32/171 in 164 IP

602) Jordan Nwogu CHC, OF, 22.1 – Selected 88th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Nwogu is 6’3”, 235 pounds with a plus power/speed combo and very strong numbers in his 3 years in the Big Ten, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and a 96/63 K/BB in 125 career games. There are some concerns over his swing, but the upside is considerable. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/23/77/.253/.325/.457/14

603) Yonny Chirinos TB, RHP, 27.3 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2020 and will miss all of 2021. 2021 Projection: OUT

604) Jack Kochanowicz LAA, RHP, 20.3 – Kochanowicz is 6’6”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball/curve combo and developing change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.89/1.26/174 in 176 IP

605) Jhonny Piron TB, OF, 17.2 – At 6’1”, 165 pounds, Piron is tooled up with excellent athleticism, plus speed and power projection, but needs to continue refining his hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/20/74/.262/.331/.443/14

606) Jorge Alfaro MIA, C, 27.10 – Development has seemingly stagnated with no improvements in K% (36%), BB% (4%), or launch angle (2.8 degrees). Catchers have been known to break out offensively later in their careers due to how much they need to focus on defense, so that might be the path Alfaro is on. 2021 Projection: 48/16/59/.248/.301/.408/5

607) Carson Kelly ARI, C, 26.9 – Whiff% rose 3.8% to 26.8%, BB% tanked 8.5% to 4.7%, and exit velocity dropped 2.7 MPH to 86.3 MPH. He hits it in the air and still hit 5 homers in 39 games, but he took a step back in multiple areas. 2021 Projection: 45/16/49/.240/.320/.421/.0

608) Danny Jansen TOR, C, 26.0 – Exit velocity tanked to 85.1 MPH, killing any chance of a breakout despite a strong K% (21.1%), BB% (14.3%), and launch angle (16.3 degrees). 2021 Projection: 46/15/49/.234/.325/.413/0

609) Wilson Ramos DET, C, 33.8 – Underlying numbers were slightly down and BABIP was a little low which lead to a down year (.684 OPS). Nothing is setting off alarm bells, so a bounce back should be in order, but he’s not getting any younger at 33 years of age. 2021 Projection: 48/15/63/.270/.330/.437/0

610) Tyler Stephenson CIN, C, 24.8 – Smashed in his 20 PA MLB debut with 2 homers and a .294 BA. The power is nice to see as he’s always displayed a strong plate approach in the minors. 2021 Projection: 28/7/33/.251/.319/.406/1 Prime Projection: 61/18/67/.268/.337/.428/1

611) Edwin Encarnacion FA, DH, 38.3 – Exit velocity bottomed out to 85.4 MPH and whiff% hit a career worst 32.6%. It led to a cover your eyes .157/.250/.377 triple-slash in 44 games. He still managed to knock 10 homers, and his BABIP was an unsustainably low .156, so while it would be hard to deny he is in decline, there could be another useful year or two left in him. 2021 Projection: 62/24/67/.232/.320/.468/0

612) Jose Iglesias LAA, SS, 31.3 – Hit for a .373 BA on the back of an unsustainable .407 BABIP. Exit velocity did reach a career high 86.2 MPH, so combined with an elite 11.3% K%, some of that batting average gain was real. 2021 Projection: 65/11/62/.291/.328/.414/7

613) Isiah Kiner Falefa TEX, 3B/SS, 26.0 – Texas announced he will be their starting SS in 2020. Falefa is a contact hitter (14% K%) who will steal a handful of bags, but a 0.8 degree launch angle and 90.5 MPH FB/LD exit velocity does not give much hope for a power outbreak. 2021 Projection: 76/10/51/.271/.327/.376/13

614) Adam Frazier PIT, 2B/OF, 29.3 – Drilled 7 homers in 58 games but with a career low 85.5 MPH exit velocity, that pace is likely unsustainable. Career low .230 BA was due to a career low .246 BABIP. 2021 Projection: 73/12/67/.273/.335/.415/5

615) Andrelton Simmons MIN, SS, 31.7 – If only defense was a fantasy category … 2021 Projection: 68/11/61/.273/.325/.396/10

616) Keegan Akin BAL, LHP, 26.0 – Solid MLB debut with a 4.56 ERA and 30.2 K% in 25.2 IP. He relies heavily on his 91.9 MPH 4-seam fastball that he threw 62% of the time. 2021 Projection: 8/4.43/1.42/151 in 155 IP

617) Michael Baumann BAL, RHP, 25.7 – Flexor mass strain ended his season in August. He was impressing at alt camp before that with a mid 90’s fastball and 3 secondaries headlined by a plus slider. 2021 Projection: 2/4.46/1.39/50 in 55 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.07/1.30/162 in 165 IP

618) Adam Kloffenstein TOR, RHP, 20.8 – Kloffenstein is 6’5”, 243 pounds with an average to above average 4-pitch mix. Pitched well as an 18 year old at Short-A in 2019 with a pitching line of 2.24/1.09/64/23 in 64.1 IP. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.95/1.32/171 in 176 IP

619) Luis Gil NYY, RHP, 22.10 – High risk, high reward prospect with an upper 90’s fastball but control/command and secondaries are still raw. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.95/1.34/155 in 152 IP

620) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 23.10 – Will compete for the 5th starter job in Spring. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 94 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 7/4.48/1.40/113 in 130 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.33/151 in 161 IP

621) David Bote CHC, 2B/3B, 28.0 – Hits the ball hard (92.4 MPH exit velocity) with a little speed (27.6 ft/sec sprint speed) and a high walk rate (11.7% BB%). 2021 Projection: 62/16/60/.242/.329/.420/6

622) Monte Harrison MIA, OF, 25.8 – 51% K% in his 51 PA MLB debut shows the extreme swing and miss issues he has had throughout his entire career. He’s a great athlete with a plus power/speed combo, but the risk is starting to overtake the reward. 2021 Projection: 27/5/23/.203/.271/.353/6

623) Jake Fraley SEA, OF, 25.10 – Has struggled two years in a row in small sample, cups of coffee on the MLB level, putting up a combined triple-slash of .152/.200/.227 with a 25/2 K/BB in 70 PA. Statcast numbers don’t provide a silver lining either with an 83.1 MPH exit velocity and average speed. 2021 Projection: 28/6/31/.231/.288/.391/3

624) Jeremiah Jackson LAA, SS, 21.0 – 33% K% as a 19 year old in rookie ball in 2019, which means the risk is sky high, but he also smacked a ridiculous 23 homers in 65 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/27/81/.241/.319/.451/10

625) Logan Davidson OAK, SS, 23.3 – Made gains in 2020 by improving his below average hit tool, giving hope he will be able to get to his plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 69/20/75/.249/.325/.443/12

626) Bryse Wilson ATL, RHP, 23.3 – Dominated the minors by commanding his plus fastball, but profiles more as a back end starter in the majors without a dominant secondary offering and below average whiff rates. 2021 Projection: 3/4.48/1.38/64 in 70 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.33/154 in 167 IP

627) Jared Shuster ATL, LHP, 22.8 – Selected 25th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Shuster showed dramatically improved control in the 2019 Cape Cod League (1.4 BB/9 in 32 IP), and not only did he maintain that in 26.1 IP in 2020 (1.4 BB/9), but he also increased his fastball velocity by about 4 MPH with the ability to hit 97 MPH. His best pitch is a plus changeup to go along with an average slider. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.21/1.30/168 in 173 IP

628) Rich Hill FA, LHP, 40.1 – 3.03 ERA looked good, but the underlying stats told a different story with a 5.08 xERA and his K% dropping to 19.9%. Also missed some time with shoulder soreness. 2021 Projection: 6/4.13/1.28/108 in 115 IP

629) Jose Quintana LAA, LHP, 31.6 – Thumb and lat injuries limited Quintana to 10 IP. Stuff looked mostly the same with low 90’s heat and an above average curveball. 2021 Projection: 8/4.32/1.34/141 in 157 IP

630) JT Brubaker PIT, RHP, 27.4 – Solid MLB debut with an above average 27.6% whiff% and 4.39 xERA in 47.1 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 93.8 MPH sinker. 2021 Projection: 7/4.44/1.36/133 in 145 IP

631) Anthony DeSclafani SF, RHP, 31.0 – The wheels fell off with a 7.22 ERA and 25/16 K/BB in 33.2 IP. K% dropped to 15.8% but whiff% remained stable at 23.2% so some of that looks to be bad luck. Will get a ballpark upgrade moving away from Cincy. 2021 Projection: 8/4.41/1.35/143 in 158 IP

632) Michael Wacha TB, RHP, 29.9 – Got shelled with a 6.62 ERA in 34 IP but he did post career bests in K% (23.7%) and BB% (4.5%), so it wasn’t as bad as it looked. 2021 Projection: 7/4.42/1.42/129 in 142 IP

633) Jared Kelley CHW, RHP, 19.5 – Selected 47th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Kelley throws mid 90’s gas with a plus changeup, but lacks feel on his breaking ball. The upside is considerable if the breaking ball improves, but if it doesn’t he may end up in the pen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.98/1.31/158 in 155 IP

634) Cole Wilcox SD, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 80th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Wilcox was starting to show improved control with only 2 walks in 23 IP before the season got shutdown (5.7 BB/9 in 2019). It’s a good sign as the stuff is nasty with a mid 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.08/1.33/161 in 158 IP

635) Hans Crouse TEX, RHP, 22.6 – Worked out on his own in 2020 due to a personal issue. His stuff took a step back in 2019 because of a bone spur in his elbow which required surgery after the season. Assuming he is back to 100% in 2021, he throws a mid 90’s fastball with a plus slider and above average change. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 11/3.87/1.28/162 in 155 IP

636) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 22.1 – Selected 30th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Westburg has the raw talent to be a plus power/speed combo, but he hasn’t been able to tap into his raw power yet with only 10 homers in 124 NCAA games, and the hit tool is also a concern with high strikeout rates throughout his career. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/15/68/.246/.318/.420/13

637) William Contreras ATL, C, 23.3 – Worked on his defense in 2020 to the point he can now potentially be plus behind the dish. Offensively he continued to show a good feel to hit with plus raw power. Shea Langeliers is still lurking, so Contreras will likely need a trade to project for full time at-bats. 2021 Projection: 15/4/19/.242/.291/.392/0 Prime Projection: 52/22/61/.267/.328/.443/0

638) Andrew Knizner STL, C, 26.2 – Only received 17 PA in 2020 but proved he can put a charge into the ball with a 94.3 MPH average exit velocity. He’s also shown a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career, and looks to have first dibs on the Cardinals starting catcher job. 2021 Projection: 48/13/53/.258/.313/.405/2

639) Omar Narvaez MIL, C, 29.1 – Total collapse across the board with a 31% K%, 81.6 MPH exit velocity, and a .562 OPS. 2021 Projection: 46/11/41/.248/.339/.397/0

640) Yan Gomes WASH, C, 33.8 – Hit for a .284 BA with a career best 18.5% K% and 89.9 MPH exit velocity. Expected to catch 100+ games in 2021 as Washington’s primary catcher. 2021 Projection: 49/16/53/.251/.311/.430/1

641) Dillon Dingler DET, C, 22.6 – Selected 38th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Dingler was just starting to tap into his raw power in 2020 with 5 homers in 13 games. He’s a plus athlete for a catcher with the chance to steal a handful of bases, which is always nice to get from your catcher position. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/17/63/.260/.328/.424/7

642) Miguel Vargas LAD, 3B, 21.5 – Advanced hitter who stood out at instructs, but has yet to tap fully into his raw power and has limited defensive value. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 68/20/75/.273/.348/.448/6

643) Clayton Beeter LAD, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 66th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Beeter has impressive stuff with a mid to upper 90’s fastball and the potential for two plus breaking balls. 2020 was his first year as a starter in college, and while the numbers are impressive (2.14 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB), it came in only 21 IP and he had a 8.7 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2019. Reliever risk is high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.83/1.32/141 in 127 IP

644) Miguel Amaya CHC, C, 22.1 – Focused on improving his defense at the alt site. 16.8% K% and 13.2% BB% as a 20 year old at High-A in 2019 shows his mature plate approach. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 63/19/66/.265/.342/.433/1

645) Diego Cartaya LAD, C, 19.7 – One of the top international signings in 2018, Cartaya has an advanced plate approach with the potential to hit for both average and power. He is also a lock to stick behind the dish. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/20/73/.274/.340/.438/1

646) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 21.11 – Control took a major step forward in 2019, cutting his walk rate from 7.3 BB/9 in 2018 to 3.6 BB/9 in 2019. He continued to work on that in 2020 at the alt site. He has big time stuff headlined by a plus fastball/slider combo, but still needs to work on command and consistently. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/4.14/1.33/161 in 169 IP

647) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 22.3 – Selected 39th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Haskin has shown the ability to hit for hard contact with strong plate approach numbers at Tulane, slashing .363/.457/.612 with 11 homers and a 39/40 K/BB in 73 career games. He’s a plus defender with plus speed although it only resulted in 5 steals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/18/70/.267/.336/.433/11

648) Jared Jones PIT, RHP, 19.8 – Selected 44th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Jones is a great athlete with a mid to upper 90’s fastball, potentially plus slider and developing change. His control has been spotty and he doesn’t have ideal size at 6’1”, 180 pounds. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/154 in 151 IP

649) Owen Caissie CHC, OF, 18.9 – Selected 45th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Caissie is young for high high school class and has plus raw power with above average speed at 6’4”, 190 pounds, but it comes with some strikeout issues. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/24/79/.242/.327/.462/9

650) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B, 18.3 – Selected 89th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Jordan has been known for his prodigious raw power for years now, putting up impressive exit velocity numbers, but limited defensive value means he’s likely going to have to hit his ceiling to see everyday at-bats. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 62/24/71/.250/.325/.467/4

651) Carson Tucker CLE, SS, 18.2 – Selected 23rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Tucker has shown good feel to hit with plus speed and the ability to stick at SS. Power should develop but doesn’t project to be a major part of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/14/64/.271/.326/.413/15

652) Manuel Beltre TOR, SS, 16.10 – Beltre in an advanced hitter with excellent contact rates and a history of performing against top competition at Perfect Game events. He doesn’t have the monster power/speed combo, but he should grow into more power, and the hit tool combined with all the exposure he’s gotten makes him much safer than other international prospects. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/22/79/.277/.345/.458/6

653) Slade Cecconi ARI, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 33rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cecconi is 6’4”, 220 pounds with a plus fastball/slider combo, but has had trouble maintaining his stuff throughout his career and as he gets deeper into games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.18/1.33/154 in 162 IP

654) JT Ginn NYM, RHP, 21.10 – Selected 52nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Ginn underwent Tommy John surgery after exiting his first start of the season after 3 IP. He showed his dominance in 2019 with a pitching line of 3.13/1.05/105/19 in 86.1 IP in the SEC on the back of his plus fastball/slider combo and a changeup that flashes plus. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.93/1.26/174 in 166 IP

655) Will Wilson SF, SS, 22.8 – Impressed with his raw power at alternate camp and instructs which is nice to see after averaging only an 86 MPH exit velocity in his pro debut. He projects as a solid all around hitter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 72/20/74/.265/.331/.440/4

656) Masyn Winn STL, SS/RHP, 19.0 – Selected 54th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Winn is a two way player with considerable upside at both SS and pitcher. He throws mid 90’s heat with the potential for two plus secondaries (breaking ball and changeup), and he has a plus power/speed combo at the dish. He’s only 5’11”, 180 pounds, so there are some concerns over his size as a pitcher, and he also needs to refine his hit tool at the plate. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/3.91/1.34/109 in 106 IP – 61/15/58/.241/.316/.420/11

657) Arol Vera LAA, SS, 18.7 – Signed for $2 million in 2019, the 6’3”, 187 pound Vera has shown a good feel to hit and has the chance to grow into plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/23/81/.268/.334/.452/6

658) Jairo Pomares SF, OF, 20.8 – Impressive pro debut in 2019, slashing .368/.401/.542 with 3 homers, 5 steals, a 90 MPH avg. exit velocity and a 26/10 K/BB in 37 games. He doesn’t project for huge home run or stolen base totals, but he has a chance to be solid 5 category player. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/19/76/.270/.331/.436/10

659) Joe Ryan TB, RHP, 24.10 – Pulverized 3 levels of the minors (A, A+, AA) in 2019 using mostly a plus fastball that he commands well, putting up a pitching line of 1.96/0.84/183/27 in 123.2 IP. Needs to improve secondaries to keep those numbers up at the major league level. 2021 Projection: 1/4.36/1.37/24 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.09/1.33/160 in 157 IP

660) Mike Siani CIN, OF, 21.8 – Full season debut in 2019 wasn’t great (.672 OPS), but he displayed a solid plate approach (20.5% K%/8.7% BB%) with plus speed (45 steals) and developing power (6 homers). Plus centerfield defense should give his bat time to develop. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/14/61/.263/.328/.409/25

661) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 19.4 – Selected 103rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mayo has big raw power at 6’5”, 215 pounds but it comes with batting average concerns and limited defensive value. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 64/24/76/.240/.314/.466/4

662) David Calabrese LAA, OF, 18.6 – Selected 82nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Calabrese is one of the youngest players in the draft. His game is built around double plus speed and CF defense, and while he should grow into more power, at 5’11”, 160 pounds, it doesn’t figure to be a major part of his game. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/13/59/.265/.327/.406/24

663) Cristian Santana DET, SS, 17.3 – Santana stands out for his advanced plate approach and hit tool. Like most high priced international signings, he’s an excellent athlete with power projection: ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/20/74/.277/.352/.455/7

664) Miguel Rojas MIA, SS, 32.1 – Maintained an elite K% (12.6%) while his power (.192 ISO) and BB% (11.2%) blew up to career bests. 2021 Projection: 69/10/66/.280/.333/.397/8

665) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 19.0 – Selected 17th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Yorke has an advanced feel to hit and a mature approach at the plate, but doesn’t project for big power or speed totals. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/71/.278/.343/.442/6

666) Nick Ahmed ARI, SS, 31.0 – Steady but unspectacular 5 category production. 2021 Projection: 73/17/75/.257/.319/.426/8

667) Luis Arraez MIN, 2B, 24.0 – Hit zero homers in 32 games but a 90.6 MPH FB/LD exit velocity with a 12.1 degree launch angle isn’t so bad that he can’t run into a handful of dingers. Continued his elite contact hitting ways with a 9.1% K% and .321 BA. Andrelton Simmons signing hurts his playing time projection. 2021 Projection: 73/5/59/.308/.367/.424/4

668) Donovan Solano SF, 2B, 33.3 – Backed up his 2019 breakout in 2020, slashing .326/.365/.463 with 3 homers and a 39/10 K/BB in 54 games. BABIP was unsustainably high both years (.396 in 2020), and there isn’t much power or speed. 2021 Projection: 72/10/68/.288/.326/.405/1

669) Kevin Newman PIT, SS/2B, 27.8 – Was able to maintain elite contact rates with a 12.2% K%, but power and speed dropped off a cliff with 1 homer and 0 steals in 44 games. 2021 Projection: 49/8/46/.272/.322/.391/8

670) Kohei Arihara TEX, RHP, 28.8 – Arihara pounds the strike zone with a 7 pitch mix that hasn’t produced very many strikeouts in Japan (7.2 K/9 in 2020). He features a splitter as his best secondary while his fastball sits in the low 90’s, ultimately profiling as back end starter. 2021 Projection: 8/4.37/1.32/131 in 157 IP

671) Daniel Johnson CLE, OF, 25.9 – Will compete for a likely strong side of a platoon role in Spring. He went 1 for 13 in his MLB debut in 2020. Plus power/speed combo, but a questionable hit tool could limit him to a part time role. 2021 Projection: 38/9/41/.243/.306/.425/6 Prime Projection: 62/16/66/.252/.318/.450/9

672) Jahmai Jones BAL, 2B, 23.8 – Changing his swing to unlock more power didn’t take in 2019, and he looked much better in 2020 going with his natural line drive approach. 2B job is wide open in Baltimore. 2021 Projection: 46/8/41/.241/.307/.390/7 Prime Projection: 67/13/61/.268/.327/.412/11

673) Kyle Isbel KC, OF, 24.1 – Hamstring and hamate injuries tanked Isbel’s 2019 season, leading to a 86 wRC+ in 52 games at High-A, but he looked much better in the Fall League with a .315 BA, 1 homer, 6 steals and a 20/14 K/BB in 91 PA. Plus defense and plus speed are his best skills. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/16/67/.268/.325/.417/19

674) Seth Corry SF, LHP, 22.5 – Dominated in his full season debut in 2019 with a pitching line of 1.76/1.07/172/58 in 122.2 IP. He has the potential for 3 above average pitches, but command will have to take a step forward to remain a starter (4.3 BB/9). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 7/4.02/1.34/109 in 111 IP

675) Thad Ward BOS, RHP, 23.2 – Velocity ticked up and developed a plus cutter en route to a dominant season in Full-A and High-A in 2019. Throws a 5 pitch mix with mid rotation upside. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.33/159 in 164 IP

676) Alexander Vizcaino NYY, RHP, 23.10 – Mid 90’s fastball with a plus changeup and a slider that took a step forward at alt camp. He put up a 128/38 K/BB in 115 IP split between Full-A and High-A in 2019. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.33/166 in 168 IP

677) Jay Groome BOS, LHP, 21.7 – Tommy John wiped out almost all of Groome’s 2018 and 2019, but he looked solid at the alt site in 2020 with a potentially plus fastball/curve combo. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.94/1.28/157 in 154 IP

678) Thomas Szapucki NYM, LHP, 24.10 – Returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 after missing all of 2018 and proved his plus fastball/curve combo is still intact with 72 strikeouts in 61.2 IP at mostly High-A. He stayed healthy all year in 2020 showing off the same stuff. 2021 Projection: 1/4.43/1.38/35 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 8/4.03/1.31/152 in 150 IP

679) Kyle Harrison SF, LHP, 19.8 – Selected 85th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Harrison pounds the strikezone with a potentially plus 3 pitch mix (fastball, slider, change). He knows how to pitch and could be a big riser in 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.24/176 in 173 IP

680) Jake McCarthy ARI, OF, 23.8 – Here is what Arizona’s farm director, Josh Barfield, said about McCarthy in this MLB.com article, “But to Jake’s credit, he came back from the shutdown and was a completely different guy … as drastic of a change in a guy as you’ll see. He put on 25 pounds of muscle and made a radical swing change. He has been mashing, just pummeling the baseball.” He was the 39th overall pick in 2018 and has hit for solid batting averages with high stolen base totals in his short pro career, so reports of added power is great to hear. Could be big 2021 breakout. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/20/76/.254/.322/.438/16

681) Oscar Colas FA, OF/LHP, 22.6 – Colas is a two way player with mid 90’s heat, but has only pitched 3.1 professional innings and didn’t pitch at all last season in Japan’s minor leagues. On the offensive side, he’s been hitting for power since 17 years old in Cuba, and was able to launch 12 homers in 73 games in Japan in 2019, but it has come with a healthy amount of strikeouts. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/23/75/.247/.318/.435/8

682) Colton Welker COL, 3B, 23.6 – Raw power needs to take a step forward to fully take advantage of his good feel to hit. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 71/20/73/.270/.328/435/3

683) Canaan Smith PIT, OF, 22.1 – Known for his plus walk rates since high school, and has present raw power at 6’0”, 215 pounds that he hasn’t yet turned into big time home run totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/21/74/.259/.347/.441/6

684) Jhon Diaz TB, OF, 18.6 – Struggled at instructs which isn’t too concerning considering his age. He signed for $1.5 million in 2019 and projects for solid production across the board. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/19/74/.272/.335/.432/10

685) Luis Medina MIL, OF, 18.1 – Worked on catching up to elite velocity at instructs. He signed for $1.3 million in 2019 because of a smooth lefty swing that generates easy plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 65/23/72/.248/.326/.462/5

686) Francisco Morales PHI, RHP, 21.5 – Great stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and plus slider, but changeup lags behind and has major bullpen risk. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/3.92/1.34/159 in 153 IP

687) Kevin Pillar FA, OF, 32.3 – Moderate power/speed combo whose swing and miss is trending up and defense trending down. He isn’t guaranteed to find a full time job, 2021 Projection: 63/16/54/.262/.305/.432/12

688) Luis Garcia HOU, RHP, 24.4 – Mediocre MLB debut with a 9/5 K/BB in 12.1 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a plus changeup. Mid-rotation upside if his control/command can improve. 2021 Projection: 2/4.54/1.38/49 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.32/166 in 165 IP

689) Tom Murphy SEA, C, 30.0 – Fractured his left foot in July which wiped out his entire 2020. Murphy will give you big time power with a low BA. Likely looking at some kind of time share with Luis Torrens. 2021 Projection: 38/15/49/.229/.294/.438/2

690) Pavin Smith ARI, 1B, 25.2 – Solid MLB debut, slashing .270/.341/.405 with 1 homer and an 18.2%/11.4% K%/BB% in 44 PA. Smith has displayed at least plus contact rates everywhere he has played, and has slowly started to tap into a little more power. 2021 Projection: 29/5/26/.262/.328/.406/1 Prime Projection: 76/17/72/.281/.348/.436/2

691) Cal Raleigh SEA, C, 24.4 – Plus power hitting catcher with 50%+ flyball rates. Drilled 29 homers in 121 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2019, and the power played well at instructs in 2020 as well. 2021 Projection: 8/2/11/.215/.281/.418/0 Prime Projection: 58/22/66/.238/.314/.441/1

692) Ender Inciarte ATL, OF, 30.5 – Was a part time player in 2020 and his production bottomed out with a .190 BA. 2020 Projection: 65/8/38/.251/.322/.386/14

693) Lane Thomas STL, OF, 25.8 – Missed most of the 1st half of the season with Covid, and didn’t perform very well when he returned in September. He’s fast (28.3 ft/sec sprint speed) and hits the ball hard (91 MPH exit velocity), but needs to improve his hit tool to earn a full time job. 2021 Projection: 31/8/30/.245/.308/.412/5

694) Christopher Morel CHC, 3B, 21.9 – Reports from alt camp talked about Morel’s improved hit tool, which is great to hear considering his plus power/speed combo. If the gains are real, Morel has a chance to breakout in 2021, especially for fantasy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 65/21/71/.242/.308/.441/11

695) Alexander Mojica PIT, 3B, 18.8 – One of the best hitters in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, slashing .351/.468/.580 with 8 homers and a 34/37 K/BB in 55 games. Has a patient hitter with plus raw power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/19/69/.268/.337/.461/3

696) Brenton Doyle COL, OF, 22.11 – Doyle has completely demolished the competition in his 3 years in Division II and then in his pro debut in the Pioneer League. He has a plus power/speed combo, but he has yet to consistently face advanced competition and the hit tool is a bit of a question mark. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/17/68/.243/.325/.442/11

697) Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 18.10 – Got bigger and stronger in 2020, which is great to see after he displayed a good feel to hit and plus speed in his pro debut in 2019. He could be a major riser in 2021. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/14/68/.269/.336/.414/23

698) Daniel Cabrera DET, OF, 22.7 – Selected 62nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cabrera has been known for his sweet swing and potentially plus hit tool since high school, but he lacks impact power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/14/.66/.276/.338/.427/8

699) Ezequiel Duran NYY, 2B, 21.10 – Power broke out at Short-A in 2019 with a league leading 13 homers in 66 games. He’s raw at the plate, but he’s a good athlete and scorches the ball ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/22/77/.251/.326/.461/8

700) Austin Beck OAK, OF, 22.5 – Reports of improved pitch recognition and power at instructs in 2020. Strikeout rate spiked to 34.3% at High-A in 2019 and remains all around raw in his game. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/21/77/.242/.314/.435/9

701) Mason Martin PIT, 1B, 21.10 – Slashed .254/.351/.558 with 35 homers and a 168/68 K/BB in 131 games split between Full-A and High-A in 2019. Poor defensive 1B, so finding playing time will be his biggest hurdle, although it shoudn’t be a problem early in his career with the depleted Pirates. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 68/26/79/.235/.328/.475/3

702) Bryce Ball ATL, 1B, 22.9 – Drafted 727th overall in 2019, Ball has double plus raw power and showed that off in his pro debut, slashing .337/..367/.547 with 4 homers and a 20/4 K/BB in 21 games at Full-A. He destroyed the Appy League too with 13 homers in 41 games. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 53/18/61/.244/.316/.452/0

703) Yeison Santana CHC, SS, 20.4 – Santana has displayed a good feel for contact with solid tools across the board. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 77/18/69/.276/.347/.426/13

704) Kyren Paris LAA, SS, 19.5 – Paris has above average speed with a patient plate approach and developing power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/16/72/.267/.343/.416/16

705) Yimi Garcia MIA, Closer Committee, 30.7 – In position to have at least a share of the closer job in Miami. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 94.4 MPH fastball that he throws 49.4% of the time. 2021 Projection: 3/3.65/1.16/65/17 in 61 IP

706) Archie Bradley ARI, Closer Committee, 28.8 – At the least he is next man up and he could earn a share of the closer job. Velocity was down over 1 MPH on all of his pitches, but he still pitched well with a pitching line of 2.95/1.09/18/3 in 18.1 IP 2021 Projection: 3/3.68/1.24/68/10 in 65 IP

707) Lucas Sims CIN, Closer Committee, 26.11 – In competition for the closer job, but he’s experiencing some elbow tightness which will put him a little bit behind coming into Spring. Sims throws 2 devastating breaking balls (curve, slider) with a 93.9 MPH 4-seamer. Put up a 33% K% in 2020. 2021 Projection: 3/3.73/1.28/68/10 in 55 IP

708) Mark Melancon FA, Closer, 36.0 – Groundball pitcher with a plus cutter/curveball combo. Value will swing majorly based on if he can find a closer job. 2021 Projection: 3/3.64/1.28/54/15 in 61 IP

709) Andres Munoz SEA, Setup, 22.3 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2020 and is expected to be back for the 2nd half of 2021. When healthy, he throws a 100.2 MPH fastball with a plus slider. He’s the favorite to be Seattle’s long term closer. 2020 Projection: 1/4.03/1.26/29 in 24 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.31/1.15/97/33 in 68 IP

710) Giovanny Gallegos STL, Setup, 29.9 – St. Louis could go in any number of different directions for saves, but Gallegos should at least be in the mix after putting together another strong season on the back of his dominant slider (.159 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 3/3.42/1.03/81/15 in 62 IP

711) Nick Loftin KC, SS, 22.6 – Selected 32nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Loftin stands out for his ability to get the bat on the ball (48 K’s in 122 NCAA games) and his defensive versality. Homer and steal totals will be average at best. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/14/62/.275/.328/.406/8

712) Seth Johnson TB, RHP, 22.6 – Johnson is a converted infielder and relatively new to pitching, but the stuff is excellent with a mid 90’s fastball and potentially plus slider. Curve and change have also shown signs of development. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/3.91/1.33/138 in 142 IP

713) Tainer Rainey WASH, Setup, 28.3 – Next man up in Washington. Rainey throws a 96.5 MPH fastball with a plus slider that put up a ridiculous 72.9% whiff% 2021 Projection: 3/3.52/1.21/88 in 60 IP

714) Seth Lugo NYM, RHP, 31.5 – Transitioned into the starting rotation in the 2nd half of the season and the results were a mixed bag with him getting absolutely bombed in two starts while mostly dominating in the others. With all of the Mets recent additions, he is slated to be back in a setup role. 2021 Projection: 3/3.52/1.16/81 in 72 IP

715) Emmanuel Clase CLE, Setup, 23.0 – Missed all of 2020 with a PED suspension. Clase’s 99.4 MPH fastball and 90.6 MPH slider are super impressive, although his strikeout rates haven’t popped as much as you would think (8.10 K/9 in MLB and 9.32 at Double-A). 2020 Projection: 3/3.72/1.20/69 in 65 IP

716) Zack Britton NYY, Setup, 33.3 – Next man up in New York. Groundball machine (negative 6.8 degree launch angle against) who leans heavily on his plus sinker that he throws 80.3% of the time. 2020 Projection: 3/3.28/1.21/53/6 in 62 IP

717) Josh Fleming TB, LHP, 24.10 – Had an excellent MLB debut with a pitching line of 2.78/1.08/25/7 in 32.1 IP. He relies heavily on a sinker he throws 53.4% of time to go along with 2 effective secondaries (slider, change). 2021 Projection: 6/4.22/1.34/88 in 125 IP

718) Petey Halpin CLE, OF, 18.10 – Selected 95th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Halpin is a good overall hitter with plus speed and questionable power potential. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/14/66/.273/.335/.408/14

719) Dax Fulton MIA, LHP, 19.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Fulton underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2020. He’s a 6’6”, 225 pound lefty with a plus, high spin curveball, a low 90’s fastball that he gets great extension on, and a developing change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/4.09/1.29/163 in 161 IP

720) CJ Van Eyk TOR, RHP, 22.6 – Selected 42nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Van Eyk racked up K’s in the ACC with a fastball he can ramp up to 95 MPH, a plus breaking ball, and average change. Control has been a problem with a career 4.2 BB/9 in 176.2 IP (5.2 BB/9 in 20.2 IP in 2020). 2021 Projection: 10/4.27/1.35/166 in 175 IP

721) Alex De Jesus LAD, SS, 19.0 – De Jesus impressed in his pro debut in 2019 and moved quickly to stateside ball. He showed an ability to lift the ball with developing plus power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 75/24/83/.261/.332/.457/4

722) Freddy Zamora MIL, SS, 22.5 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Zamora is a potentially plus defensive shortstop who has shown strong bat to ball skills in the ACC (45/55 K/BB in 104 career games). He doesn’t have plus power or speed, but he was starting to tap into more power in 2019, and has been an aggressive base stealer with 33 steals in 40 attempts. A knee injury knocked out his entire 2020 season. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.264/.326/.418/13

723) Casey Martin PHI, SS, 22.0 – Selected 87th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Martin has a plus power/speed combo with considerable upside, but is still very raw at the plate with a 101/40 K/BB in 81 SEC games over the last two years. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/19/69/.241/.316/.428/13

724) Gage Workman DET, 3B, 21.5 – Selected 102nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Workman is young for his college class and has impressive raw tools at 6’4”, 195 pounds, but is still very raw overall with a mediocre 138/48 K/BB in 124 career Pac 12 games (21/5 K/BB in 17 games in 2020). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 64/22/71/.245/.318/.437/7

725) Aaron Ashby MIL, LHP, 22.10 – Fastball ticked up in 2020 and is now sitting in the mid 90’s, but secondaries and control need to improve for him to remain in the rotation. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.12/1.35/155 in 148 IP

726) Tahnaj Thomas PIT, RHP, 21.10 – Mid 90’s fastball with a slider that flashes plus and developing change. Has only been pitching for a few years. Broke out in 2019 in the Appy League with a pitching line of 3.17/1.12/59/14 in 48.1 IP ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 7/3.91/1.33/125 in 121 IP

727) Cole Henry WASH, RHP, 21.9 – Selected 55th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Henry is a power pitcher at 6’4”, 211 pounds with a plus mid 90’s fastball, but struggles with consistency and locating his secondaries. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.16/1.31/159 in 165 IP

728) Johnny Cueto SF, RHP, 35.1 – Hasn’t been the same since his fastball dropped from about 93 MPH to 91 MPH. 5.40 ERA is backed up by a 4.84 xERA. 2021 Projection: 7/4.46/1.34/132 in 155 IP

729) Alex Wood SF, LHP, 30.3 – Return to LA was not able to rejuvenate Wood, as shoulder inflammation limited him to 12.2 IP with a 6.39 ERA. 2021 Projection: 6/4.49/1.35/116 in 130 IP

730) Buster Posey SF, C, 34.0 – Opted out of the 2020 season, but it was announced he will be the primary catcher in 2021. Maybe the year off can rejuvenate Posey because he was in a decline phase in 2018 (.741 OPS) and 2019 (.688 OPS). 2021 Projection: 52/10/51/.265/.335/.396/1

731) Ross Stripling TOR, RHP, 31.4 – Whiff% dropped 5.6% to a career low 18.9% en route to a down season with a 5.84 ERA. No guarantee of a rotation spot. 2021 Projection: 7/4.35/1.32/118 in 130 IP

732) Joey Wendle TB, 3B/2B/SS, 30.11 – Strong side of a platoon/super utility/Tampa mish mosh role. He’ll chip in some average and steals, but unless he can lock down a full time role hitting at the top of the order, his value will be very limited. 2021 Projection: 58/8/51/.267/.324/.405/12

733) Estevan Florial NYY, OF, 23.6 – Explosive tools with a major hit tool problem that he reportedly worked on at alternate camp. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 73/17/66/.234/.312/.422/13

734) Kevin Alcantara NYY, OF, 18.9 – Huge raw talent at 6’6”, 188 pounds with a plus power/speed combo, but a .665 OPS in his pro debut shows there is a long way to go. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 66/21/73/.262/.325/.462/12

735) Angel Martinez CLE, SS, 19.2 – Lived up to his advanced plate approach scouting report in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, slashing .306/.402/.428 with 1 homer, 11 steals, and a 29/29 K/BB in 56 games. Power should develop as he matures. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/18/71/.274/.345/.421/14

736) Andry Lara WASH, RHP, 18.3 – Signed for $1.25 million in 2019, the 6’5”, 235 pound Lara has a fastball that can reach 96 MPH with an advanced feel for pitching and the potential for two quality secondaries in his slider and change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 12/3.84/1.25/178 in 174 IP

737) Eddy Yean PIT, RHP, 19.9 – Fastball sits in the mid 90’s with a potentially plus slider and developing change. Upside is considerable but is still on the raw side. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.87/1.32/168 in 167 IP

738) Mason Denaburg WASH, RHP, 21.4 – Has been injury prone with biceps tendinitis in 2018 and minor shoulder surgery in 2019. He’s 6’4”, 195 pounds with big stuff, but health concerns has dimmed the hype a bit. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.27/160 in 160 IP

739) Ryan Jensen CHC, RHP, 23.4 – Jensen throws both his 4 seamer and 2 seamer at 96 MPH with a potentially above average slider and developing changeup. He doesn’t have a long history as a starter and needs to improve his control, so reliever risk is high. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 7/3.91/1.33/120 in 115 IP

740) Daniel Vazquez KC, SS, 17.3 – At 6’2”, 158 pounds, Vasquez stands out for his good feel to hit and quick swing. Power and speed both project to be in the average to above average range. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/18/69/.278/.340/.426/12

741) Shalin Polanco PIT, OF, 17.2 – Polanco has a sweet lefty swing that projects to produce power in the future as his 6’0”, 170 pound frame fills out. The ingredients for plus hit and speed are there as well. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 73/22/79/.268/.330/.447/9

742) Yiddi Cappe MIA, SS, 18.6 – Cappe is athletic and projectable at 6’3”, 175 pounds. Ultimate projection could take on any number of different directions depending on how his body fills out. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 71/20/74/.263/.324/.441/12

743) Alejandro Pie TB, SS, 19.2 – Signed for $1.4 million in 2018, Pie has a potentially plus power/speed combo and had a solid pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019. At 6’4”, 175 pounds, he’s a high upside lottery ticket. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.258/.320/.445/16

744) Ambioris Tavarez ATL, SS, 17.4 – Tavarez is 6’2”, 175 pounds with a quick and powerful swing that foreshadows at least plus power potential. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/24/81/.246/.325/.457/8

745) Seth Brown OAK, 1B/OF, 28.9 – Khris Davis trade opens up playing time at DH, but there will be a lot of competition for at bats. Brown is a low average power hitter with above average speed. 2021 Projection: 33/9/37/.228/.390/.419/4

746) Sheldon Neuse OAK, 2B/3B, 26.5 – Will compete for 2B at-bats in the Spring. Neuse hits it hard with a line drive approach and a high strikeout rate. 2021 Projection: 44/12/47/.251/.301/.411/0

747) Ian Desmond COL, OF, 35.6 – Opted out of the 2020 season. He’ll be in competition for playing time and could end up in the short side of a platoon role. 2021 Projection: 54/15/53/.253/.311/.434/6

748) Michael Taylor KC, OF, 30.0 – Plus power/speed combo whose high strikeout rates have prevented a breakout. He did have a career low 28.7% whiff% in 2020, and has a shot at playing time in KC, so he is not the worst late round pick in deep leagues. 2021 Projection: 49/13/49/.235/.295/.395/15

749) Tyler Duffey MIN, Setup, 30.3 – Utterly dominated for the 2nd year in a row with a pitching line of 1.88/0.79/31/6 in 24 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.41/1.11/73/7 in 60 IP

750) Ken Giles FA, Setup, 30.6 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2021. No guarantee he will be handed a closer job when he returns. 2021 Projection: OUT

751) Danny Duffy KC, LHP, 32.3 – K% ticked up to a 4 year high at 23.6%, but it didn’t help his ERA at all with a 4.95 ERA. 2021 Projection: 8/4.56/1.34/140 in 150 IP

752) Randy Dobnak MIN, RHP, 26.2 – Groundball pitcher (1.2 degree launch angle against) with a low strikeout rate (13.5%). 2020 Projection: 8/4.25/1.34/100 in 150 IP

753) Steven Matz TOR, LHP, 29.10 – Move to Toronto opens up a rotation spot but he enters a tough environment for pitchers in the AL East. He got rocked for a 9.68 ERA in 30.2 IP, but to find a silver lining his 4-seam velocity ticked up 1.2 MPH to 94.5 MPH. 2021 Projection: 8/4.52/1.39/148 in 155 IP

754) Kyle Gibson TEX, RHP, 33.5 – K% dropped to 19.3% after ticking up the last two seasons and hit a career worst 10% BB%. Velocity on all of his pitches dropped about 1 MPH from 2019 en route to a 5.35 ERA in 67.1 IP 2021 Projection: 9/4.58/1.43/150 in 165 IP

755) Brandon Crawford SF, SS, 34.3 – Career high .209 ISO and 24.4% K%. Maybe the power uptick is partly real after the Giants ballpark modifications. 2021 Projection: 68/17/72/.246/.315/.408/3

756) Alerick Soularie MIN, OF, 21.9 – Selected 59th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Soularie projects as a solid overall hitter with a moderate power/speed combo. He put up strong K/BB numbers throughout his amateur career, but his production has been a bit up and down. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/17/67/.271/.328/.418/8

757) Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 22.7 – Selected 56th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Allen pounds the strike zone with low 90’s heat, a plus changeup, and an average curve. He dominated all 3 seasons in Conference USA with a pitching line of 3.33/1.14/246/47 in 183.2 IP. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.17/1.28/165 in 173 IP

758) Tyler Keenan SEA, 3B, 22.1 – Selected 107th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Keenen raked all 3 years in the SEC with 31 career homers in 139 games (7 homers in 17 games in 2020). At 6’4”, 250 pounds the power is certainly for real, but limited defensive value puts pressure on the bat. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 52/18/61/.244/.322/.456/1

759) Shea Langeliers ATL, C, 23.5 – Plus defensive catcher who will get ranked higher on real life lists than fantasy. The bat isn’t expected to be a difference maker. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 61/19/66/.262/.325/.426/1

760) Patrick Bailey SF, C, 21.10 – Selected 13th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Bailey is a plus defensive catcher who is more valuable in real life than fantasy. He does have average to above average power, but it is not likely to come with a good batting average. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 55/17/63/.242/.314/.429/1

761) Armando Cruz WASH, SS, 17.2 – Expected to receive a signing bonus of around $4 million, Cruz’ best comps are Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias. He’s known for his slick defense, and should hit for a solid average with below average power and average speed. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/13/61/.273/.321/.402/11

762) Victor Acosta SD, SS, 16.10 – Acosta projects as a plus defense shortstop with the offensive tools to hit at the top of the order. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/14/66/.263/.324/.413/15

763) Daniel Bard COL, Closer, 35.9 – Won the comeback player of the year after not having pitched in the majors since 2013. Bard throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 97.1 MPH fastball. 2021 Projection: 2/4.21/1.36/55/23 in 55 IP

764) Tyler Ivey HOU, RHP, 24.11 – Had no issues in Double-A in 2019 with a pitching line of 1.57/0.96/61/16 in 46 IP. Throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a plus fastball/curveball combo. 2021 Projection: 2/4.56/1.37/46 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 7/3.82/1.29/118 in 111 IP

765) Juan Then SEA, RHP, 21.2 – Then has good control over his mid 90’s heat and has the potential for two quality secondaries in his slider and change. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.23/1.31/161 in 165 IP

766) Gregory Soto DET, Closer Committee, 26.2 – In the mix for saves. Slings a 97.3 MPH fastball with a plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/4.17/1.35/66/17 in 60 IP

767) Andrew Miller STL, Closer Committee, 35.11 – Saved 4 games in 2020 and should be in the mix for saves in 2021. Velocity declined for the 4th year in a row, and dropped over 2 MPH just this season, but it hasn’t prevented his slider from being as dominant as ever (.124 xwOBA). 2021 Projection: 3/3.92/1.28/61/9 in 52 IP

768) Micker Adolfo CHW, OF, 24.6 – Has been riddled with injuries since 2015. When healthy, he’s shown at least plus raw power, although the strikeout rates have been consistently high. 2021 Projection: 22/6/25/.220/.290/.401/1 Prime Projection: 67/23/76/.248/.324/.451/2

769) Emmanuel Rodriguez MIN, OF, 18.1 – Signed for $2.5 million in 2019, Rodriguez is 5’11”, 200 plus pounds who should hit for plus power at peak and has an advanced feel at the dish. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/25/84/.261/.341/.473/7

770) Benyamin Bailey CHW, OF, 19.6 – 6’4”, 215 pound beast with the potential for plus power. Performed well in his pro debut in 2019 in the Dominican Summer League, slashing .324/.477/.454 with 2 homers, 10 steals, and a 40/52 K/BB in 55 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/23/79/.253/.338/.474/8

771) Michael Harris ATL, OF, 20.1 – Held his own against advanced competition at the alt site and stood out for his athleticism at instructs. He had a beastly pro debut in rookie ball, slashing .349/.403/.514 with 2 homers, 5 steals and a 20/9 K/BB in 31 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 79/21/75/.258/.326/.434/16

772) Bryan Garcia DET, Closer Committee, 25.11 – Notched 4 saves in September. Relies heavily on his 94.4 MPH sinker 2021 Projection: 3/4.33/1.37/54/13 in 60 IP

773) Sean Doolittle CIN, Closer Committee, 34.6 – Right knee inflammation and an oblique strain limited Doolittle to 7.2 IP in 2020. He didn’t pitch well in those innings either with a 5.87 ERA and a 2.8 MPH velocity decline. He’ll compete for saves in Cincy. 2021 Projection: 2/4.11/1.34/46 in 48 IP

774) Jacob Stallings PIT, C, 31.3 – K% mushroomed 9% to 28% and FB/LD exit velocity dropped 1.4 MPH to 91 MPH. 2021 Projection: 42/11/45/.252/.318/.385/0

775) Max Stassi LAA, C, 30.0 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip in October with a 4-6 month timetable. Power exploded (91.6 MPH exit velocity) and K% plummeted (20%) en route to a career year with 7 homers and a .278 BA in 31 games. 2021 Projection: 37/12/41/.239/.321/.409/0

776) Jordan Luplow CLE, OF, 27.6 – Short side of a platoon role. Luplow struggles mightily vs righties (.589 career OPS) and mashes lefties (.982 career OPS). 2021 Projection: 49/14/47/.248/.337/.451/4

777) Jose Marmolejos SEA, OF, 28.3 – Strong side of a platoon bat at best. Hit it hard in his MLB debut with 6 homers and a 90.5 MPH exit velocity in 115 PA. He’s also shown a good feel to hit with reasonable strikeout rates throughout his minor league career. 2021 Projection: 36/12/41/.241/.294/.413/1

778) Rio Ruiz BAL, 3B, 26.10 – Strong side of a platoon. He’ll provide a bit of pop and that is about it. 2020 Projection: 49/15/56/.242/.311/.413/0

779) Bradley Zimmer CLE, OF, 28.4 – Will compete for an OF job in the spring, but his lack of a hit tool (.162 BA in 50 PA in 2020) continues to hold back his power/speed combo. 2021 Projection: 33/7/31/.221/.308/.376/12

780) Zack Collins CHW, C, 25.2 – No clear path to playing time with Chicago and will need a trade to get full time at bats. He has plus power and patience, but retaining catcher eligibility throughout his career is a major question mark. 2021 Projection: 32/9/35/.223/.316/.403/0 Prime Projection: 52/18/55/.241/.333/.434/0

781) JA Happ MIN, LHP, 38.5 – Bounced back from a down 2019 with a pitching line of 3.47/1.0542/15 in 49.1 IP. He doesn’t hold much dynasty value as a 38 year old pitcher with below average K rates, but he can provide solid innings, especially in deeper leagues. 2021 Projection: 8/4.31/1.33/133 in 158 IP

782) Adam Wainwright FA, RHP, 39.7 – Surface stats bounced back with a 3.15 ERA, but a .247 BABIP and 4.52 xERA shows it was mostly good fortune. 2021 Projection: 9/4.32/1.35/130 in 155 IP

783) Jon Lester WASH, LHP, 37.3 – Velocity decline continued to a career low 89.4 MPH and it resulted in a 5.16 ERA in 61 IP. 2021 Projection: 8/4.65/1.36/124 in 153 IP

784) Chase Strumpf CHC, 2B, 23.1 – Strumpf has solid tools across the board but nothing standout. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 79/21/77/.268/.339/.442/5

785) Miguel Yajure PIT, RHP, 22.11 – Yajure has performed well throughout his minor league career with a 2.47 ERA in 291.2 IP, and that continued in his 7 IP MLB debut with a 1.29 ERA and a 8/5 K/BB. He throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 92.4 MPH and two swing and miss secondaries (change and curve). 2021 Projection: 2/4.36/1.34/48 in 52 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.07/1.30/156 in 163 IP

786) Hanser Alberto KC, 2B/3B, 28.5 – Will compete for the 2B job in Spring. Elite contact hitter with below average speed and very low exit velocity. 2021 Projection: 59/8/44/.286/.310/.392/5

787) Gabriel Rodriguez CLE, SS, 19.1 – Highly touted international prospect in 2018 who showed a good feel to hit and advanced approach, but doesn’t have big power or speed. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 78/20/76/.262/.329/.437/8

788) Tim Cate WASH, LHP, 23.6 – Changeup showed improvement at alternate camp to go along with his plus curveball and low 90’s fastball. Profiles as a back end starter. 2021 Projection: 1/4.55/1.44/32 in 35 IP Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.29/148 in 154 IP

789) Bryan Abreu HOU, RHP, 24.0 – Throws two plus breaking balls with rack up strikeouts, but lack of fastball control could relegate him to a high K pen option. 2021 Projection: 2/4.12/1.33/47 in 42 IP Prime Projection: 6/3.75/1.29/111 in 97 IP

790) Cole Roederer CHC, OF, 21.6 – Performed well at instructs by increasing his power and letting it come more naturally with an up the middle approach. Also looked better vs secondary pitches. Roederer has the potential to be an all category contributor with some platoon risk. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/21/75/.262/.338/.453/11

791) Connor Scott MIA, OF, 21.6 – High upside prospect whose career pro numbers were mediocre in 2018-2019 (.652 OPS), but he has plus speed with the ability to grow into above average power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 76/18/73/.260/.322/.423/21

792) Alex Santos HOU, RHP, 19.2 – Selected 72nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Santos is 6’3”, 215 pounds with the potential for 3 quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and has the ability to throw strikes, but is still on the raw side. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.26/1.32/158 in 163 IP

793) Colt Keith DET, SS, 19.8 – Selected 132nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Keith is a two way player but is likely to be a position player long term. He’s 6’3”, 195 pounds with a potentially plus power/speed combo and average hit tool. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/21/77/.253/.321/.442/9

794) Carmen Mlodzinski PIT, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 31st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mlodzinski features a heavy, sinking fastball that induces lots of grounders. His secondary pitches have been inconsistent, and a 7.8 K/9 in 25.1 IP in 2020 shows he doesn’t project for huge strikeout totals. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.25/1.34/149 in 165 IP

795) Yadier Molina FA, C, 38.9 – Power declined with a career low 84.7 MPH exit velocity, and while his K% remained strong at 13.5%, his whiff% hit a career worst 23.9%. 2021 Projection: 49/12/56/.259/.309/.398/2

796) Noah Song BOS, RHP, 22.10 – It is unclear when or if Song with be available to pitch in 2021 due to his military service. He fell in the draft to 137th overall because of that risk, but on merit alone he likely would have been drafted within the first two rounds. He throws a mid 90’s fastball with a slider and changeup that flash plus, but due to the lost development time, he may end up the bullpen. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 7/4.23/1.35/103 in 96 IP

797) Gabriel Moreno TOR, C, 21.2 – Showed elite contact rates (11.1%) with developing power (12 homers in 82 games at Full-A) in 2019, and he continued that success by impressing in his short stint at alternate camp in 2020. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 52/18/59/.273/.325/.426/2

798) Lucius Fox KC, SS, 23.9 – Double plus speed and being consistently young for his level are the two best things going for him. He also has below average power and a potentially average hit tool. 2021 Projection: 28/2/21/.228/.287/.342/7 Prime Projection: 67/7/48/.252/.315/.389/21

799) Ji-Hwan Bae PIT, 2B/SS, 21.8 – Prototypical lead off hitter with double plus speed and little power. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/8/53/.276/.343/.389/24

800) Tucupita Marcano SD, SS/3B/2B, 21.7 – Elite contact numbers translated to full season ball in 2019 with a 8.9% K%. Has plus speed but going 15 for 31 on the base paths show the base stealing skills need work. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/8/52/.283/.331/.391/15

801) Nick Allen OAK, SS, 21.6 – Not going to win you any leagues, but his plus defense gives him a chance to win a full time job eventually. Plus speed with a good feel to hit. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 78/9/55/.276/.339/.375/18

802) Jose Devers MIA, SS, 21.4 – Continued to show off his plus hit tool and plus speed at the alt site in 2020, but his power is projected to be well below average. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/7/48/.278/.335/.388/17

803) Luis Garcia PHI, SS, 20.6 – Showed increased power in 2020 which was necessary after a disaster 2019 season. He’s a plus defensive shortstop with the chance for solid offensive production across the board. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/15/65/.265/.326/.408/10

804) Chris McMahon COL, RHP, 22.2 – Selected 46th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, McMahon has the potential for 3 plus pitches, but sadly it doesn’t really matter because any pitcher picked by Colorado should be avoided in dynasty. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.33/1.35/158 in 165 IP

805) Mike Brosseau TB, 1B/3B, 27.1 – Super utility player with some pop and speed, but strikeout rates have been high in the majors. 2021 Projection: 48/13/48/.256/.318/.440/6

806) Luis Barrera OAK, OF, 25.4 – Barrera has plus speed with an aggressive line drive approach at the plate. He’s knocking on the door of the majors. 2021 Projection: 23/2/18/.244/.298/.386/4 Prime Projection: 67/12/61/.264/.321/.403/15

807) Mario Feliciano MIL, C, 22.4 – Power showed up at High-A in 2019 with a career high 19 homers and career low 38.4% GB% in 116 games. 28.8% K% and 6% BB% shows he is still raw at the plate. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 58/20/64/.244/.312/.422/1

808) Dexter Fowler LAA, OF, 35.0 – Missed the 2nd half of the season due to a compromised immune system. Career worst 84.5 MPH exit velocity, 27.7% K%, 9.9% BB%, and 26.6 fts/sec sprint speed. 2021 Projection: 65/16/63/.236/.322/.400/5

809) Michael Fulmer DET, RHP, 28.0 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in late March 2019, which came off surgery to repair a torn meniscus in September 2018. The rust showed in 2020 as Fulmer got absolutely slammed with a 8.78 ERA in 10 starts, never throwing over 65 pitches in any start. Velocity was down 2.7 MPH to 93 MPH on his sinker. 2021 Projection: 6/4.91/1.40/101 in 130 IP

810) Chad Kuhl PIT, RHP, 28.7 – Pitched well coming off Tommy John surgery with a 4.27 ERA and 44 K’s in 46.1 IP, but velocity was down 1.4 MPH on his sinker and his control was off with a 14.2% BB%. 2021 Projection: 6/4.58/1.42/125 in 135 IP

811) Steven Brault PIT, LHP, 28.11 – Surface stats looked good with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 42.2 IP, but a 38/22 K/BB and 4.85 xFIP are not as encouraging. 2021 Projection: 6/4.62/1.44/125 in 143 IP

812) Merrill Kelly ARI, RHP, 32.6 – Underwent surgery in September for thoracic outlet syndrome and is expected to be healthy for 2021. He was pitching really well before the injury with a pitching line of 2.59/0.99/29/5 in 31.1 IP, but the shoulder surgery is concerning. 2021 Projection: 7/4.48/1.35/120 in 140 IP

813) Kevin Padlo TB, 3B, 24.9 – Broke out at Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, slashing .265/.389/.538 with 21 homers, 12 steals and a 116/68 K/BB in 110 games. He’s going to have to hack and claw his way to get through Tampa’s extreme depth. 2021 Projection: 15/4/11/.225/.308/.424/2 Prime Projection: 68/20/64/.248/.335/.447/6

814) Jonathan Stiever CHW, RHP, 23.11 – Got rocked in his 6.1 IP MLB debut with a 9.95 ERA. He throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a potentially plus curveball. 2021 Projection: 2/4.51/1.36/52 in 56 IP Prime Projection: 10/4.10/1.31/161 in 169 IP

815) Matt Canterino MIN, RHP, 23.4 – Canterino throws a 4 pitch mix and has good but not great stuff. Likely profiles as a back end starter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.22/1.32/152 in 163 IP

816) Ivan Herrera STL, C, 20.10 – Herrera has a potentially plus hit tool with a mature approach at the plate and developing power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 65/16/63/.272/.341/.414/1

817) Luis Frias ARI, RHP, 22.10 – Mid 90’s fastball with a plus curveball, but lacks a third pitch and control/command needs work, so reliever risk is high. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 6/4.14/1.35/122 in 120 IP

818) Matthew Thompson CHW, RHP, 20.8 – Thompson is a great athlete at 6’3”, 195 pounds with a plus fastball/curve combo and average change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.01/1.32/165 in 166 IP

819) Ian Seymour TB, LHP, 22.4 – Selected 57th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Seymour was dominating before the season got shut down with a 2.21 ERA and 40/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP. He has a plus fastball/changeup combo but needs to improve his breaking ball. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/4.07/1.30/148 in 152 IP

820) Nick Swiney SF, LHP, 22.2 – Selected 67th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Swiney moved into the rotation in 2020 and excelled in 4 starts with a 1.29 ERA and 46/6 K/BB. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, sitting in the low 90’s, but his curveball and changeup both have the potential to be at least above average offerings. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.15/1.33/156 in 162 IP

821) Kyle Nicolas MIA, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 61st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Nicolas showed improved control of his mid 90’s fastball in 2020, bringing his BB/9 down from 8.3 to 2.7. He throws 3 secondaries with his slider as the money pitch. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 8/3.97/1.36/158 in 149 IP

822) Joey Cantillo CLE, LHP, 21.3 – Throws a plus changeup and dominated at Full-A in 2019 with a pitching line of 1.93/0.87/128/27 in 98 IP. High 80’s/low 90’s fastball will likely have to tick up for him to take the next step. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.13/1.32/158 in 163 IP

823) Hayden Cantrelle MIL, SS, 22.4 – Selected 151st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cantrelle put up big OBP and stolen base numbers throughout his college career (career .405 OBP with 50 steals in 135 games). It comes with some strikeouts and he was only hitting .136 before the Covid shutdown. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 70/12/53/.247/.330/.403/17

824) Trevor Hauver NYY, OF, 22.4 – Selected 99th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hauver is a high OBP hitter (career .426 OBP at Arizona State) with at least average power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 74/18/68/.253/.327/.426/2

825) Tucker Davidson ATL, LHP, 24.0 – Throws a 4 pitch mix with the chance for 3 average to above average pitches, and has pitched well in the upper levels of the minors, but Atlanta has so much pitching depth, there is a good chance he ends up in the pen. 2021 Projection: 1/4.52/1.42/21 in 22 IP Prime Projection: 6/4.09/1.30/96 in 93 IP

826) Colin Barber HOU, OF, 20.4 – Barber has a quick bat with above average raw power and speed. Solid pro debut in 2019, slashing .263/.387/.394 with 2 homers, 2 steals, and a 29/19 K/BB in 28 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 69/15/67/.258/.325/.416/11

827) Casey Schmitt SF, 3B/RHP, 22.1 – Selected 49th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Schmitt has the potential to become a power hitting third baseman and/or a bullpen arm if the hitting doesn’t work out. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: Hitting-51/15/55/.247/.312/.422/2 – Pitching-1/4.16/1.32/13 in 15 IP

828) Alex Faedo DET, RHP, 25.5 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in January 2021 and is expected to miss all of 2021. When healthy he throws an above average fastball/slider combo with a developing change. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.29/1.33/149 in 156 IP

829) Yoendrys Gomez NYY, RHP, 21.5 – A projectable 6’3”, 175 pounds, Gomez has a mid 90’s fastball with a potentially plus curve, developing change, and the ability to throw all of them for strikes. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 10/4.18/1.31/158 in 163 IP

830) Kohl Franklin CHC, RHP, 21.7 – Franklin is a projectable 6’4”, 190 pounds with a plus fastball/change combo and an average curve, but needs to improve his control and command. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 9/4.11/1.34/156 in 163 IP

831) Nicky Lopez KC, 2B, 26.1 – Strikeout rate spiked to 21.4% and was 0 for 5 in stolen base attempts in 56 games. 2021 Projection: 49/3/36/.252/.318/.344/6

832) Mike Tauchman NYY, OF, 30.4 – Power completely disappeared with 0 homers and an 84.9 MPH exit velocity in 111 PA. Strong BB% (12.6%) and speed (6 steals), were still there, so if the power bounces back he could carve out a role in the Yanks righty heavy lineup. 2021 Projection: 39/7/37/.255/.351/.401/6

833) Matt Wallner MIN, OF, 23.4 – Wallner has double plus raw power that he had no problem getting to in Conference USA (58 homers in 3 years) and in his pro debut in 2019 (8 homers in 65 games in mostly the Appy League), but it comes with a high strikeout rate (27% K%). ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 70/22/79/.248/.331/.462/2

834) Tim Locastro ARI, OF, 28.9 – Blazing fast with a 30.7 sprint speed and continued his perfect streak on the base paths, going 4 for 4 (26 for 26 in his career). 2021 Projection: 45/5/23/.261/.333/.393/15

835) Roman Quinn PHI, OF, 28.1 – Elite 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed with 12 steals in 116 PA, but strikeout rate hit a career worst 33.6%. He’ll have to compete for playing time. 2021 Projection: 32/5/25/.233/.298/.362/17

836) Aristides Aquino CIN, OF, 26.11 – Couldn’t back up his 2019 breakout with a .170 BA and 32.1% K% in 56 PA in 2020. Power/speed combo is still there, but it will be a battle for playing time and a very short leash. 2021 Projection: 36/13/39/.229/.298/.445/4

837) Matt Carpenter STL, 3B, 35.4 – Coming off a down 2019 (.726 OPS), he bottomed out even more in 2020 with a .186 BA and .640 OPS. Arenado trade hurts his playing time projection. 2021 Projection: 57/14/55/.222/.333/.427/2

838) Adam Haseley PHI, OF, 25.0 – K% dropped to 18.5% in 92 PA, but he hit 0 homers with 0 steals and his sprint speed dropped to a below average 26.8 ft/sec. 2021 Projection: 36/5/30/.269/.330/.387/5

839) Anthony Alford PIT, OF, 26.8 – Fractured right elbow ended his season in September. Alford has plus speed (29.7 ft/sec sprint speed) but power and hit tool have not developed. Pitt’s lack of talent gives him a shot at playing time and the opportunity to reach his potential. 2021 Projection: 46/8/41/.232/.298/.377/12

840) Taylor Walls TB, SS, 24.9 – Plus defensive shortstop with a good feel to hit, high walk rates, and some speed. 2021 Projection: 11/1/9/.246/.315/.372/2 Prime Projection: 74/13/62/.268/.343/.402/13

841) Vince Velasquez PHI, RHP, 28.10 – The high strikeout rate (29.9% K%) makes for enticing upside, but 2020 was the fourth year in a row he had an ERA 4.85 or higher. .373 BABIP and 4.30 xERA gives some hope there are better days ahead. 2021 Projection: 7/4.52/1.40/148 in 130 IP

842) Robert Dominguez NYM, RHP, 19.4 – Dominguez has a huge fastball that has reached 99 MPH with a good feel for spin and a developing changeup. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 10/3.91/1.33/168 in 160 IP

843) Lenny Torres CLE, RHP, 20.6 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2019 and didn’t pitch much in 2020. When healthy, Torres has a plus fastball/slider combo with a developing change and looked more refined than expected in his 2018 pro debut. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 11/3.85/1.29/168 in 159 IP

844) Maikol Escotto PIT, 2B, 18.10 – Dominican League standout in 2019, slashing .315/.429/.552 with 8 homers, 13 steals and a 57/32 K/BB in 45 games. Escotto is a good athlete with plus speed and developing power. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 73/20/71/.255/.323/.439/13

845) Edward Olivares KC, OF, 25.1 – Made his MLB debut in 2020, and the only thing to standout was his plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint speed), but even that didn’t result in any stolen bases (0 for 2 in 101 PA). He has the potential for solid production across the board, but there is major 4th OF risk. 2021 Projection: 28/5/25/.254/.310/.401/6 Prime Projection: 66/13/62/.268/.324/.425/14

846) Lou Trivino OAK, Setup, 29.6 – Next man up in Oakland and has a chance to take away some saves from the lefty Diekman. Trivino throws a 5 pitch mix leaning heavily on his 3 fastballs (4-seam, sinker, cutter). 2021 Projection: 3/3.98/1.26/65/9 in 62 IP

847) Nick Wittgren CLE, Setup, 29.10 – Will be in the mix for saves if Karinchuk struggles or gets hurt. 3.42 ERA was much better than his 4.73 xERA, but Wittgren has been rock solid for 5 years now. 2021 Projection: 3/3.82/1.21/68 in 65 IP

848) Adam Ottavino BOS, Setup, 35.2 – Next man up in Boston. Ottavino got hit up in 2020 with a 5.89 ERA, but a 3.75 xERA and 3.78 xFIP shows there was some bad luck in play. 2021 Projection: 3/3.97/1.29/73/7 in 61 IP

849) Jordan Romano TOR, Setup, 27.11 – Next man up in Toronto. Romano threw his plus slider 59.9% of the time and his 96.5 MPH fastball put up a 52.4% whiff%. 2021 Projection: 3/3.68/1.25/68 in 59 IP

850) Pete Fairbanks TB, Setup, 27.3 – Anderson and Castillo are the favorite for saves but Fairbanks could sneak in a few too. He throws 97.4 MPH heat with a plus slider that has led to high strikeout and walk rates. 2021 Projection: 3/3.66/1.28/80/8 in 63 IP

851) Chris Flexen SEA, RHP, 26.9 – Pitched well in Korea in 2020 with a pitching line of 3.01/1.09/132/20 in 116.2 IP, but he has a career 8.07 ERA in 68 IP in the majors. He did show improved stuff in the KBO with his fastball ticking up, so he could be worth a late round flier. 2021 Projection: 7/4.53/1.36/131 in 145 IP

852) Logan Webb SF, LHP, 24.5 – Knocked around with a 5.47 ERA and a 46/24 K/BB in 54.1 IP. He’s a back end starter with mid rotation upside. 2021 Projection: 7/4.51/1.41/118 in 140 IP

853) Trevor May NYM, Setup, 31.7 – Elite 39.6% K%. Hit a career high 96.3 MPH velocity on the fastball. 2021 Projection: 3/3.47/1.14/85 in 65 IP

854) Alex Cobb LAA, RHP, 33.6 – Doesn’t strike many guys out, and gets hit hard. The move from Baltimore to LA at least gives him the chance to be serviceable. 2021 Projection: 9/4.39/1.36/115 in 160 IP

855) Freddy Galvis BAL, 2B/SS, 31.5 – Days of chipping in stolen bases seem to be over with a 25.9 ft/sec sprint speed and 1 steal in 47 games. He’ll provide some pop and that is about it. 2021 Projection: 63/17/61/.242/.301/.402/4

856) Dakota Hudson STL, RHP, 26.7 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will miss all of 2021. K/BB numbers and xFIP’s have been poor, but it hasn’t stopped him from posting a career 3.17 ERA in 241 IP. 2021 Projection: OUT

857) Joe Ross WASH, RHP, 27.10 – Opted out of the 2020 season. Favorite for the 5th starter job. He didn’t pitch well overall in 2019, but the results were better down the stretch with a 2.75 ERA and 32/20 K/BB in final 39.1 IP. 2021 Projection: 6/4.62/1.42/98 in 110 IP

858) Shed Long SEA, 2B/OF, 25.7 – He’ll have to prove himself in Spring Training to win at-bats after hitting .171 in 2020. He doesn’t hit the ball very hard (87.1 MPH exit velocity) and has an elevated K% (28.9%). 2021 Projection: 34/7/31/.242/.308/.391/5

859) Jorge Mateo SD, SS, 25.9 – Ticketed for a bench role with San Diego’s jam packed lineup. He struggled in his MLB debut with a 39.3% K% and .154 BA in 28 PA. 29 ft/sec sprint speed shows the speed is for real. 2021 Projection: 21/4/17/.233/.291/.373/9

860) Franklin Barreto LAA, 2B, 25.1 – Underwent shoulder surgery in September. Slated for a utility role in 2021. He has a plus power/speed combo but hasn’t been able to overcome a weak hit tool 2021 Projection: 25/7/25/.227/.290/.402/6

861) Greg Deichmann OAK, OF, 25.10 – Big time power with high strikeout rates. Crushed 9 homers in 23 games in the Arizona Fall League in 2019. These types of power bats always seems to work their way into Oakland’s lineup by their late 20’s. 2021 Projection: 12/3/15/.228/.297/.412/1 Prime Projection: 58/18/64/.243/.325/.450/6

862) Josh Staumont KC, Setup, 27.3 – Flings a 98 MPH fastball with a plus curve, but a 14.3% BB% makes it a tight rope act. 2021 Projection: 3/4.08/1.37/76/10 in 61 IP

863) Cole Tucker PIT, OF, 24.9 – Struggled for the 2nd year in a row in the majors, slashing .220/.252/.275 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 31/5 K/BB in 116 PA. The raw talent is there at 6’3”, 205 pounds with plus athleticism, but it hasn’t materialized yet. 2021 Projection: 33/5/30/.239/.299/.361/7

864) Burl Carraway CHC, LHP, 21.10 – Selected 51st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Carraway is a back end bullpen arm who has elite stuff with an upper 90’s fastball and put away curveball, but struggles with his control. Should be a fast mover. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 3/3.71/1.27/81 in 68 IP

865) Ryan Rolison COL, LHP, 23.9 – Mid rotation upside, but at Coors Field that is more like a back end fantasy starter. 2021 Projection: 2/4.77/1.45/41 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 12/4.33/1.32/167 in 173 IP

866) Michel Baez SD, 25.2 – With San Diego’s jam packed rotation it looks like Baez will need a trade to be given a shot as a starter. He fires a mid 90’s fastball with a potentially plus change. 2021 Projection: 2/4.08/1.34/51 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.93/1.32/96 in 91 IP

867) Elehuris Montero STL, 3B, 22.8 – Wrist injuries tanked Montero’s season at Double-A in 2019 with a .188 BA and 7 homers in 59 games. He’s still raw at the plate and it was a down year no matter how you slice it, but the plus bat speed and plus raw power still give him the ingredients to breakout with more experience and refinement. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 66/23/77/.252/.325/.461/2

868) Jack Herman PIT, OF, 21.6 – Hit tool didn’t look as good in 2019 at Full-A as it did in his pro debut in rookie ball (14.2% K% vs. 29.3% K%), but the game power broke out with 13 homers in 75 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/23/76/.244/.323/.458/5

869) Jerar Encarnacion MIA, OF, 23.5 – Made improvements to his plate approach and impressed with his power at alt camp. At 6′4”, 220 pounds, Encarnacion is a power hitting beast with hit tool concerns. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 62/22/71/.243/.310/.454/2

870) Freudis Nova HOU, SS, 21.3 – Still learning to refine his plate approach, but Nova has high upside with plus bat speed and plus power potential. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 72/21/79/.261/.322/.442/9

871) Ronaldo Hernandez TB, C, 23.5 – Plus raw power but there are hit tool and defense concerns. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 53/18/63/.253/.308/.435/2

872) Korey Lee HOU, C, 22.8 – Lee is a power hitting catcher who jacked 15 homers in 51 games in the PAC-12 in 2019, but he’ll need to start lifting the ball more to get to all of his raw power (52.3% GB% in his pro debut at Short-A). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 51/18/59/.258/.326/.422/4

873) Hunter Brown HOU, RHP, 22.7 – Brown throws a 4 pitch mix headlined by a mid 90’s fastball and plus curveball, but will need to improve his control to remain a starter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 5/3.95/1.35/103 in 100 IP

874) JB Wendelken OAK, Setup, 28.0 – Throws a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 94.6 MPH fastball and plus slider. 2021 Projection: 3/3.72/1.18/67 in 60 IP

875) Joely Rodriguez TEX, Setup, 29.5 – Lat and hamtring strains limited him to 12.2 IP, but he looked great in those innings with a pitching line of 2.13/1.03/17/5. Throws a 3 pitch mix headlined by a plus sinker and changeup. 2021 Projection: 3/3.47/1.18/68 in 57 IP

876) Rowan Wick CHC, Setup, 28.4 – Next man up in Chicago. Increased usage of his cutter which put up a .090 xwOBA to go along with mid 90’s heat and a plus curveball. 2021 Projection: 3/3.65/1.26/65 in 59 IP

877) Alec Mills CHC, RHP, 29.4 – Back end starter with high 80’s/low 90’s heat and good control. 2021 Projection: 8/4.42/1.31/121 in 145 IP

878) Francisco Mejia TB, C, 25.5 – The Rays look to be set on using Mejia as a catcher. He wiped out completely in 2020 with a .077 BA in 42 PA. He’s shown a good feel to hit with the ability to lift the ball in the past, so there is some talent in there for the Rays to work with. 2021 Projection: 22/6/25/.244/.301/.409/1

879) Lewis Brinson MIA, OF, 26.11 – Took a small step forward with a career best 26.8% K%, but it still only resulted in a .226 BA. Plus power/speed combo is still there, so a late career breakout is the hope here. 2021 Projection: 36/9/37/.232/.291/.392/5

880) Nomar Mazara FA, OF, 25.11 – Bottomed out in 2020 with a 29.5% K% and .589 OPS in 136 AB. Likely looking at a part time role at best. 2021 Projection: 42/13/47/.246/.312/.424/1

881) DJ Peters LAD, OF, 25.4 – Power, patience, and a ton of strikeouts. 2021 Projection: 9/2/11/.221/.298/.430/1 Prime Projection: 58/18/62/.237/.321/.452/3

882) Antonio Cabello NYY, OF, 20.5 – Couldn’t repeat his 2018 success in the more advanced Appy League in 2019, striking out .30.7% of the time, but the exciting raw tools are all still there. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 67/18/71/.256/.321/.446/12

883) Matt Moore PHI, LHP, 31.9 – Played in Japan in 2020 where he put up a pitching line of 2.65/1.12/98/26 in 85 IP. His fastball reportedly topped out at 95 MPH. 2021 Projection: 7/4.66/1.42/119 in 135 IP

884) Brandon Williamson SEA, LHP, 23.0 – Williamson has the chance for 4 quality pitches headlined by a plus curveball, but he has had trouble maintaining his velocity as he gets deeper into starts. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.34/134 in 143 IP

885) Taj Bradley TB, RHP, 20.0 – Fastball ticked up into the mid 90’s at instructs to go along with a potentially above average curve and developing change. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.24/1.36/129 in 125 IP

886) Owen Miller CLE, SS, 24.4 – Jumped straight to Double-A in his first full season of pro ball in 2019 and performed well with a 15.4% K%, but with only average power and not much speed there isn’t much fantasy upside. 2021 Projection: 19/2/15/.258/.313/.395/1 Prime Projection: 72/14/61/.272/.331/.407/5

887) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 19.11 – Solid tools across the board. Potentially plus defense at SS was a major reason he was selected 30th overall in the 2019 draft. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 75/16/71/.264/.327/.414/16

888) Osleivis Basabe TB, SS, 20.7 – Performed well at Venezuelan Winter League, slashing .360/.385/.488 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 7/3 K/BB in 91 PA. Basabe has a good feel to hit with plus speed and developing power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 69/13/51/.267/.328/.402/14

889) Jose Salas MIA, SS, 17.11 – Signed for $2.8 million in 2019, Salas is a projectable 6’2”, 180 pounds with a quick bat and good athleticism. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/21/77/.261/.333/.436/11

890) Richi Gonzalez HOU, OF, 18.3 – Gonzalez is a projectable 6’3”, 185 pounds with a plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 72/21/77/.251/.317/.448/14

891) Will Benson CLE, OF, 22.10 – Monster power with above average speed and major hit tool issues. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 38/13/41/.221/.310/.453/6

892) Mickey Moniak PHI, OF, 22.11 – Impressed at that alt site with improved power and a mature plate approach. It earned him a callup where he notched a .389 OBP in 18 PA. 2021 Projection: 28/4/26/.244/.302/.378/2 Prime Projection: 73/15/67/.268/.331/.412/9

893) Terrin Vavra LAA, SS, 23.11 – 13.7% K%, 13.7% BB%, 10 homers and 18 steals in at 102 games at Full-A in 2019. He was on the old side for the level, and the power/speed combo is average, but the potential for all category production is there. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 69/14/61/.273/.331/.413/10

894) Denzer Guzman LAA, SS, 17.2 – Advanced plate approach with a good feel to hit and developing power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 74/18/71/.273/.344/.428/6

895) Jeisson Rosario BOS, OF, 21.6 – Rosario is an excellent athlete with a plus plate approach, but needs to start hitting the ball harder to make a true impact. ETA: 2023 2020 Projection: 78/11/61/.265/.341/.391/14

896) Drew Mendoza WASH, 1B, 23.6 – Made improvements to his hit tool and started to tap into more of his considerable raw power at alt camp. He’s a 6’5”, 230 pound lefty with limited defensive value. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 63/18/69/.242/.328/.451/3

897) D’Shawn Knowles LAA, OF, 20.2 – Switch hitter with double plus speed and developing power but hit tool is still raw. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 71/14/62/.250/.322/.410/16

898) Jeferson Espinal ARI, OF, 18.10 – Excellent athlete with plus speed. Currently more of a slap hitter with high groundball rates, but he’s so young it’s hard to put a cap on his possible development paths. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/15/69/.262/.332/.413/17

899) Anderson Espinoza SD, RHP, 23.1 – Underwent his second Tommy John surgery in April 2019. Returned in 2020 and his fastball was back to sitting in the mid 90’s at the alt site, but the secondaries were not there yet and he is obviously a major injury risk. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 6/4.22/1.35/103 in 110 IP

900) Eduardo Garcia MIL, SS, 18.9 – Fractured ankle limited him to only 10 games in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, but he played well in those 10 games with a good feel to hit and advanced plate approach. Plus defense is his calling card. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/16/71/.263/.331/.405/9

901) Landon Knack LAD, RHP, 23.8 – Selected 60th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Knack’s stuff ticked up in 2020 and he put up a ridiculous 51/1 K/BB in 25 IP at East Tennessee State. He throws strikes with a mid 90’s fastball that is his best pitch, but he is old for the class and secondaries still need improvement, ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.02/1.28/123 in 125 IP

902) Blayne Enlow MIN, RHP, 22.0 – Enlow is 6’3”, 210 pounds with a mid 90’s fastball and improved changeup. Throws a 4 pitch mix but neither of his breaking balls stand out. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 9/4.28/1.35/155 in 163 IP

903) Ben Hernandez KC, RHP, 19.9 – Selected 41st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Hernandez dominates with an at least plus curveball and an advanced feel to pitch, but still needs to improve his breaking ball. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.21/1.31/147 in 155 IP

904) Zach Daniels HOU, OF, 22.2 – Selected 131st overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Daniels has a plus power/speed combo and was in the midst of breaking out in 2020 with a 1.228 OPS, 4 homers, 3 steals, and a 14/13 K/BB in 17 games. His numbers looked rough before this season with a career .710 OPS, so the risk is very high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 61/15/65/.241/.308/.403/8

905) Jimmy Glowenke SF, SS, 21.10 – Selected 68th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Glowenke has hit everywhere he has played with a career .340 BA at Dallas Baptist and a .296 BA in the Cape Cod League in 2019. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 72/14/66/.278/.331/.406/3

906) Jesse Franklin ATL, OF, 22.4 – Selected 97th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Franklin broke his collarbone in a skiing accident and missed all of the shortened 2020 season. He performed well from the moment he stepped foot in the Big Ten with a .967 OPS his freshman year (.865 OPS Sophomore year), and has the potential to be a solid all around player. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 63/16/61/.245/.318/.418/6

907) Richie Martin BAL, SS, 26.3 – Missed all of 2020 after fracturing his wrist in July. Speed is his best asset with a 29.5 ft/sec sprint speed. 2021 Projection: 42/4/38/.232/.293/.355/10

908) Jaime Barria LAA, RHP, 24.8 – Pitched well in 2020 on the back of his slider which he threw 45.8% of the time, putting up a .196 xwOBA. 2021 Projection: 6/4.41/1.33/99 in 110 IP

909) Trevor Richards TB, RHP, 27.11 – Back end starter/opener/follower/who knows. Throws a 3 pitch mix headline by a plus changeup. 2021 Projection: 6/4.51/1.37/93 in 100 IP

910) Bobby Bradley CLE, 1B, 24.10 – Struck out 40.8% of the time in his 49 PA 2019 MLB debut. He has big power, but it’s going to be a career long struggle for playing time with limited defensive value. 2021 Projection: 12/5/15/.227/.299/.426/0 Prime Projection: 46/15/52/.241/.318/.463/0

911) Jake Bauers CLE, OF/1B, 25.6 – Didn’t make the MLB roster in 2020 and will be in competition for a strong side of a platoon role at best in 2021. 2020 Projection: 36/9/34/.242/.331/.404/5

912) Esteury Ruiz SD, 2B, 22.1 – Plus athlete with plus speed but is still raw at the plate and hasn’t fully tapped into his raw power. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 66/14/69/.249/.314/.438/16

913) Hudson Potts BOS, 3B, 22.5 – Low average, low OBP slugger who struggled against more advanced competition at Double-A in 2019. Strikeout rate jumped to 28.6% but still managed to knock 16 homers in 107 games. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 65/19/73/.240/.304/.455/2

914) Josh Smith NYY, SS, 23.8 – Smith hit well all three years in the SEC and then did the same in his pro debut at Short-A in 2019. He doesn’t have any standout tools, but the guy has hit everywhere he has been. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 61/14/58/.267/.328/.417/8

915) Rafael Morel CHC, SS, 19.5 – Plus hit, plus speed profile who hit well in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League, slashing .283/.373/.448 with 4 homers, 23 steals and a 38/26 K/BB in 60 games. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/11/57/.269/.326/.393/15

916) Brainer Bonaci BOS, SS, 18.9 – Advanced feel to hit with a mature plate approach, developing power and plus speed. He held his own against advanced competition at instructs. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/15/71/.268/334/.417/14

917) Jorge Ona SD, OF, 24.3 – Ona is 6’0”, 220 pounds with plus power, a questionable hit tool, and limited defensive value. He impressed enough at alternate camp for San Diego to call him up in September where he went 3 for 12 with a dinger and a 7/2 K/BB. 2021 Projection: 11/4/13/.221/.288/.419/0 Prime Projection: 46/14/53/.238/.302/.441/1

918) Ronnier Quintero CHC, C, 18.5 – Signed for $2.9 million in 2019, Quintero is an offense first catcher who has the potential to hit for both power and average, but is not a lock to stick behind the plate. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 65/20/71/.264/.332/.438/2

919) Danny De Andrade MIN, SS, 17.0 – De Andrade has a lightening quick swing with plus power potential and the ability to hit for average. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/20/77/.266/.328/.447/6

920) Justin Lange SD, RHP, 19.7 – Selected 34th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Lange throws a huge fastball that can reach the upper 90’s but secondaries and control are still very raw. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 6/4.21/1.36/114 in 120 IP

921) Jackson Chourio MIL, SS, 17.1 – Chourio is a projectable 6’1”, 165 pounds with the potential for a plus power/speed combo and an advanced hit tool. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 76/18/72/.268/.334/.428/13

922) Starlin Aguilar SEA, SS, 17.2 – Nicknamed “Baby Devers,” Aguilar has a quick lefty swing with the ability to hit for both average and power. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/22/79/.268/.336/.451/5

923) Johan Rojas PHI, OF, 20.8 – Strong stateside debut in 2019, slashing .311/.393/.527 in the Gulf Coast League before inevitably struggling against more advanced competition at Short-A. Plus speed with a potentially above average hit tool and developing power that took at step forward in 2020. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 73/15/67/.258/.311/.415/16

924) Yhoswar Garcia PHI, OF, 19.7 – Garcia projects as a top of the order hitter with a good feel to hit, plus speed, and developing power at 6’1”, 150 pounds. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/14/68/.264/.326/.402/18

925) Brayan Buelvas OAK, OF, 18.10 – Pushed aggressively to stateside rookie ball in 2019 and responded with a .300/.392/.506 slash, 3 homers, 12 steals, and a 46/22 K/BB in 44 games. Has the potential for across the board production. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 76/16/72/.271/.338/.429/16

926) Blake Treinen LAD, Setup, 32.9 – Could be next in line for saves in LA. Treinen partly bounced back after a terrible 2019 with a 3.86 ERA and 22/8 K/BB in 25.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 3/3.60/1.22/58 in 61 IP

927) Matt Shoemaker FA, RHP, 34.6 – Right shoulder inflammation limited Shoemaker to 28.2 IP. He’s pitched over 136 innings only once in his career, but he’s proven to be a solid #4 type starter when healthy. 2021 Projection: 7/4.41/1.32/116 in 125 IP

928) James Kaprielian OAK, RHP, 27.1 – Injury history and lost development time makes Kaprielian a major pen risk, but the stuff is almost all the way back, showing off a 5 pitch mix headlined by a 95.1 MPH fastball in his MLB debut. 2021 Projection: 2/4.33/1.36/38 in 40 IP Prime Projection: 4/3.82/1.28/81 in 75 IP

929) Martin Perez BOS, LHP, 30.0 – Back end starter who does not strike many guys out. 2021 Projection: 8/4.71/1.48/120 in 160 IP

930) Nick Pivetta PHI, RHP, 29.1 – Closed out the season with two solid starts with Boston, giving him the inside track for the 5th starter job. His velocity dropped 1.8 MPH to 92.8 MPH, so I’m not sure there is much hope for the one time popular sleeper pick. 2020 Projection: 5/4.78/1.46/114 in 120 IP

931) Kolby Allard TEX, LHP, 23.8 – Fastball dropped back 0.9 MPH to 91.5 MPH and he doesn’t have a true put away pitch. It led to a 7.75 ERA in 33.2 IP 2021 Projection: 6/4.77/1.44/112 in 130 IP

932) Wil Crowe PIT, RHP, 26.7 – Trade to Pitt gives him a shot at a rotation spot. Got demolished in his MLB debut with an 11.88 ERA in 8.1 IP. He’s a back end starter with low 90’s heat and a 5 pitch mix. 2021 Projection: 4/4.88/1.51/92 in 120 IP

933) Yu Chang CLE, 3B, 25.5 – Likely ticketed for a utility role. Chang has a moderate power/speed combo, but hasn’t been able to hit enough in the majors (.179 BA in 97 career PA) to hold down a job. 2021 Projection: 21/5/19/.220/.295/.379/2

934) Jose Urena DET, RHP, 29.6 – Covid limited Urena to a rough 23.1 IP (5.40 ERA). He’s a low K back end starter. 2021 Projection: 6/4.80/1.42/105 in 140 IP

935) Jordan Lyles TEX, RHP, 30.6 – K% completely tanked to 13.5% (24.4% in 2019) which led to a 7.02 ERA in 57.2 IP. 2021 Projection: 7/5.11/1.48/112 in 140 IP

936) Reynaldo Lopez CHW, RHP, 27.3 – Hopes of a breakout are fading with another year of terrible production. Might be losing his rotation spot to Michael Kopech. 2021 Projection: 6/4.83/1.41/106 in 120 IP

937) Robinson Cano NYM, 2B, 38.5 – Suspended for the entire 2021 season after testing positive for a PED. He was in the midst of a bounce back season with an .896 OPS, and I guess we know why now. 2021 Projection: SUSPENDED

938) Albert Pujols LAA, 1B, 41.2 – Was no longer an everyday player in 2020, but he stills has strong contact numbers and some power. 2020 Projection: 42/15/50/.235/.294/.403/2

939) Tony Kemp OAK, 2B/OF, 29.5 – Strong side of a platoon role, but offers little upside offensively. 2021 Projection: 45/7/32/.246/.332/.373/9

940) Josh VanMeter ARI, 2B, 26.1 – Strikeout rate exploded to 30.4%, but underlying power numbers still looked good with an 89/93.3 MPH AVG/FB exit velocity and 15.1 degree launch angle. Playing time will be tough to find, but he has some fantasy friendly skills. 2021 Projection: 33/8/31/.246/.319/.425/5

941) Martin Maldonado HOU, C, 34.7 – In a timeshare with Jason Castro. He’ll provide average pop with a low BA. 2021 Projection: 42/12/45/.219/.301/.372/1

942) Jon Duplantier ARI, RHP, 26.9 – Elbow discomfort knocked out his entire 2020. He experienced bicep tendinitis in 2018 and shoulder inflammation in 2019. The injuries are piling up. 2021 Projection: 2/4.61/1.41/42 in 45 IP Prime Projection: 5/4.31/1.36/110 in 115 IP

943) Joe Palumbo TEX, LHP, 26.5 – Make that two disastrous years in a row in the majors with a 9.18 ERA in 16.2 IP in 2019 and an 11.57 ERA in 2.1 IP in 2020. He is a depth starter for the Rangers at this point. 2021 Projection: 2/4.51/1.42/55 in 55 IP

944) Seth Romero WASH, LHP, 25.0 – After missing all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Romero made his MLB debut in 2020 showing greatly reduced velocity with a 91.7 MPH fastball and 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP. His season ended when he fractured his non pitching hand by slipping on steps. 2021 Projection: 1/4.71/1.40/26 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 6/4.34/1.33/131 in 125 IP

945) Pedro Severino BAL, C, 27.8 – His days are numbered as Baltimore’s primary catcher with Adley Rutschman knocking on the door. 2021 Projection: 32/9/36/.248/.320/.409/1

946) Chance Sisco BAL, C, 26.1 – Like Pedro Severino, he is just keeping the seat warm for Adley Rutschman 2021 Projection: 28/7/26/.222/.319/.406/1

947) Roberto Perez CLE, C, 32.3 – Numbers fell off a cliff in 2020 (.480 OPS) after a career year in 2019. 2020 Projection: 36/9/41/.216/.302/.372/0

948) Joey Wentz DET, LHP, 23.6 – Underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and will be out until at least the 2nd half of 2021. When healthy, he throws a traditional 3 pitch mix headlined by a plus changeup. Unless he can add MPH to his low 90’s fastball, he will likely be a back end starter. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.32/1.34/135 in 142 IP

949) Anthony Bass MIA, Closer Committee, 33.5 – Could be in the mix for saves. Bass throws a plus sinker/slider combo. 2021 Projection: 3/ 4.02/1.28/50/8 in 56 IP

950) Elias Diaz COL, C, 30.4 – Makes good contact (career 17% K%) and has a little bit of pop (career 88.1 MPH exit velocity). 2021 Projection: 41/8/41/.248/.299/.382/0

951) Wade Miley CIN, LHP, 33.5 – Groin injury and shoulder strain limited him to 14.1 IP with a 5.65 ERA. Velocity on his cutter was down 1.5 MPH to 85.8 MPH. 2021 Projection: 6/4.75/1.43/126 in 145 IP

952) Rick Porcello FA, RHP, 32.3 – Rocked for the 2nd year in a row with a 5.64 ERA in 59 IP (5.52 ERA in 2019). He throws a 5 pitch mix relying heavily on his 90.1 MPH sinker. 2021 Projection: 9/4.72/1.40/145 in 165 IP

953) Mike Leake FA, RHP, 33.5 – Opted out of the 2020 season. He is a back of the rotation innings eater with a very low strikeout rate. 2020 Projection: 9/4.48/1.33/103 in 165 IP

954) Stuart Fairchild ARI, OF, 25.0 – Brought his K% down to 12.8% at Double-A in the 2nd half of 2019, and has shown the ability to lift the ball with above average speed. 2021 Projection: 14/2/12/.237/.300/.374/2 Prime Projection: 55/10/49/.253/.312/.421/8

955) Eric Lauer MIL, LHP, 25.10 – Got absolutely shelled with a 13.09 ERA in 11 IP. He was a former favorite of mine, but he’s looking like a back end starter at best. 2021 Projection: 6/4.68/1.40/112 in 120 IP

956) Griffin Conine MIA, OF, 23.9 – Put up great power numbers at Full-A in 2019 with 22 homers and a .946 OPS, but a 35.9% K% as a 21/22 year old at that level is very concerning. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 52/16/64/.232/.315/.443/3

957) Luis Alexander Basabe SF, OF, 24.7 – Displayed above average speed (27.9 ft/sec sprint speed with 2 steals in 18 PA) and high walk rates (22.2% K%), but hit tool and/or power will have to take a step forward to carve out playing time. 2021 Projection: 11/1/8/.222/.308/.368/3 Prime Projection: 58/12/55/.241/.322/.418/12

958) Corey Ray MIL, OF, 26.6 – He’s still tooled up with a plus power/speed combo, but the very high strikeout rate puts him on a late career breakout path at best. 2021 Projection: Prime Projection: 51/12/49/.225/.306/.408/10

959) Bubba Thompson TEX, OF, 22.10 – Great athlete but the hit tool is just not coming around. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 46/9/41/.232/.291/.402/11

960) Grant Lavigne COL, 1B, 21.7 – Stock took a step back in his full season debut in 2019 with an 86 MPH average exit velocity and 7 homers in 126 games. At 6’4”, 220 pounds you can’t call him projectable either. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 51/13/56/.255/.328/.436/2

961) Josh Fuentes COL, 1B, 28.1 – Weak exit velocity (84 MPH) with a high stirkeout rate (28.2%). Worth a flier only because he is in Colorado and they make wacky lineup decisions. 2021 Projection: 26/5/29/.234/.281/.394/1

962) Kendall Simmons PHI, 2B/3B, 21.0 – Simmons is a plus athlete with plus power but the hit tool needs improvement. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 53/14/57/.242/.318/.433/5

963) Joey Lucchesi NYM, LHP, 27.10 – Will likely fill a long man/rotation depth role for the Mets. He’s a back end starter with a plus curve and an 89.9 MPH 4-seamer. 2021 Projection: 5/4.52/1.35/100 in 100 IP

964) Jordan Yamamoto NYM, RHP, 24.11 – Got shellacked with an 18.26 ERA in 11.1 IP. He throws a 6-pitch mix but his 4-seamer sat at only 89.7 MPH. 2021 Projection: 4/4.72/1.39/107 in 105 IP

965) Nick Neidert MIA, RHP, 24.5 – Got destroyed in his MLB debut with a 5.40 ERA and 4/2 K/BB in 8.1 IP. Changeup is his best pitch but it got rocked for a 1.286 slugging. 2021 Projection: 2/4.81/1.40/41 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.42/1.35/126 in 141 IPw

966) Elio Prado BAL, OF, 19.4 – Stock rose in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, slashing .300/.403/.396 with 3 homers, 12 steals and a 36/30 K/BB in 60 games. Advanced plate approach with an above average power/speed combo. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 72/15/68/.261/.332/.413/12

967) Adam Hall BAL, SS, 21.10 – Plus speed is his best skill, stealing 33 bases in 122 games at Full-A in 2019. He does have some feel to hit and there is a bit more power in there if he can raise his launch angle, but utility infielder is his most likely outcome. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 52/8/45/.264/.314/.394/15

968) Brady McConnell KC, SS, 22.10 – McConnell has a plus power/speed combo but it comes with major hit tool risk (39.1% K% in 38 games at rookie ball in 2019). ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 48/13/51/.232/.291/.423/7

969) Dauri Lorenzo HOU, SS, 18.5 – Signed for $1.8 million in 2019, Lorenzo is a switch hitter who makes hard contact with a line drive approach and some speed. He showed increased strength in 2020. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 73/14/69/.273/.338/.416/11

970) Estiven Machado TOR, SS, 18.6 – Machado is a plus athlete with plus bat speed and a good feel to hit. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/16/66/.273/.337/.412/15

971) Tre Fletcher STL, OF, 19.11 – Fletcher is a great athlete with a plus power/speed combo (4 homers and 7 steals in 43 game pro debut in 2019), but has extreme strikeout issues (43% K%). ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 57/15/58/.228/.291/.436/11

972) Devin Mann LAD, 2B/3B, 24.2 – Showed plus power (19 homers with a 45.1% FB%) and a solid plate approach (21.9% K%/10.6% BB%) in 98 games at High-A in 2019. He was old for the level, but there is a lot to like in Mann’s offensive profile. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 44/14/48/.254/.328/.443/3

973) Jhon Torres COL, OF, 21.0 – Terrible full season debut in 2019 with a .167 BA, 38.7% K% and 0 homers in 21 games. Huge raw power that he hasn’t completely tapped into is his carrying tool. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 62/16/67/.246/.323/.448/5

974) Cody Bolton PIT, RHP, 22.9 – Bolton is 6’3”, 185 pounds with a fastball that ticked up in 2019 to a high of 97 MPH to go along with a plus curve, average change and the ability to throw strikes. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 8/4.13/1.31/145 in 155 IP

975) Austin Cox KC, LHP, 24.0 – 6’4”, 185 pound lefty whose stock took a big jump in 2019 with a pitching line of 2.76/1.15/129/38 in 130.2 IP split between Full-A and High-A. Plus control and plus curve are his best assets. 2021 Projection: 1/4.51/1.36/23 in 25 IP Prime Projection: 7/4.19/1.31/135 in 144 IP

976) Sammy Siani PIT, OF, 20.4 – Siani has plus speed with a good feel to hit and an uppercut swing that portends more power coming in the future. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 68/14/62/.265/.329/.406/15

977) Zach McKinstry LAD, 2B/SS, 25.11 – Super utility player who can play both infield and outfield. He has displayed a good feel to hit throughout his minor league career and his power started to blossom in 2019. 2021 Projection: 21/3/19/.248/.305/.389/1

978) Cole Hamels FA, LHP, 37.3 – Triceps and shoulder injuries limited Hamels to just 1 start but he intends to give it another go in 2021. 2021 Projection: 6/4.41/1.35/114 in 120 IP

979) Jeff Criswell OAK, RHP, 22.1 – Selected 58th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Criswell throws a mid 90’s fastball with two quality secondaries (slider, change), but needs to improve his control and consistency. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 5/4.26/1.37/98 in 110 IP

980) Kendall Williams LAD, RHP, 20.7 – Williams is a projectable 6’6”, 205 pounds with a low 90’s fastball and a plus changeup. Finding a consistent breaking ball and/or adding a few MPH to the fastball is the key to unlocking is upside ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 6/4.23/1.32/111 in 115 IP

981) Nick Garcia PIT, RHP, 21.11 – Selected 79th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, the 6’4”, 215 pound Garcia became a full time starter for the first time in 2020 and impressed with a potentially above average 3 pitch mix. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 4/4.31/1.36/93 in 98 IP

982) Simon Muzziotti PHI, OF, 22.3 – Displayed plus contact rates (12.9% K%) and plus speed (21 steals) at High-A in 2019, but showed very little power (3 homers in 110 games). Plus defense will help him secure playing time. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 66/8/52/.264/.313/.372/13

983) Jason Castro HOU, C, 33.9 – In a timeshare with Martin Maldonado. He hits for power and has high walk rates. 2021 Projection: 42/11/40/.205/.301/.379/1

984) Chase Anderson PHI, RHP, 33.4 – Will compete for a rotation spot in Spring. Got demolished in 2020 with a 7.22 ERA. The only silver lining was a career best 24.7% K%. 2021 Projection: 5/4.78/1.38/92 in 105 IP

985) Nick Schnell TB, OF, 21.0 – Hit tool concerns are now magnified with a 36% K% in rookie ball and 40% K% at High-A in 2019, but the power/speed combo shined through with 5 homers and 5 steals in 55 games. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 51/16/54/.244/.312/.443/11

986) Joshua Mears SD, OF, 20.1 – Broken hamate bone limited his availability in 2020. Mears is 6’3”, 230 pounds with plus power and plus bat speed, but hit tool is raw. Smacked 7 homers with a 30.3% K% in 43 game pro debut in 2019. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 57/19/65/.235/.312/.452/4

987) Davis Wendzel TEX, 3B, 23.10 – Wendzel doesn’t have huge power or speed, but he’s a solid overall hitter whose plus defense could get him everyday at-bats. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 63/18/66/.265/.325/.428/5

988) Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B, 19.9 – Power hitting beast who has been one of the youngest players in his league from 2018-2019. Cranked 10 homers in 64 games in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 and then hit 6 homers with a 18.7% K% in 47 games in stateside rookie ball in 2019. Limited defensive value puts major pressure on the bat. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 41/15/49/.248/.321/.469/2

989) Ryan Braun FA, OF, 37.5 – Sprint speed dropped to a career low 26 ft/sec and stole a single base in 39 games. Considering his age, it seems safe to say he is in the next stage of his decline. 2021 Projection: 45/16/51/.255/.316/.471/5

990) Brett Gardner FA, OF, 37.6 – Career low 28.2 ft/sec sprint speed and was 3 for 6 on steal attempts. 2021 Projection: 52/13/44/.242/.328/.410/8

991) Shin-Soo Choo FA, OF, 38.9 – Still hitting the ball hard with a 90 MPH exit velocity and while sprint speed is well below average, he still nabbed 6 bags in 33 games. 2021 Projection: 53/14/49/.248/.339/.415/7

992) Asdrubal Cabrera FA, 1B/3B, 35.5 – Playing time is not guaranteed, but he makes good contact (18.8% K%), hits the ball hard (89.4 MPH) and hits it in the air (37.9% FB%). 2021 Projection: 45/13/49/.255/.320/.431/2

993) Matt Beaty LAD, 1B/OF, 27.11 – Could not build on his strong MLB debut in 2019 with a 25.9% K% and .638 OPS in 2020. He still hit the ball hard with a 90 MPH exit velocity and his strikeout rate should bounce back, but playing time is the biggest issue. 2021 Projection: 21/5/24/.262/.320/.413/2

994) Mike Fiers FA, RHP, 35.10 – K/9 hit a career low 5.64 and 4 seamer velocity dropped 2.4 MPH to 88 MPH. 2021 Projection: 9/4.61/1.35/110 in 160 IP

995) Daniel Ponce de Leon STL, RHP, 29.2 – He could be the next man up in St. Louis’ rotation. Ponce relies heavily on his 93.1 MPH 4-seam fastball that he threw 61.1% of the time and notched a 34.4% whiff% on the pitch. 2021 Projection: 6/4.51/1.35/115 in 110 IP

996) Jake Arrieta FA, RHP, 35.1 – The decline continuee with his ERA rising for the 5th year in a row to 5.08 and his K% declining for the 6th year in a row to 16.8%. 2021 Projection: 7/4.68/1.44/110 in 140 IP

997) Ronny Polanco ARI, SS, 17.7 – Signed for $600,00 in 2019, Polanco has a quick bat with plus power, average speed and a history of performing well in international tournaments. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 72/21/76/.267/.332/.453/8

998) Kevin Made CHC, SS, 18.7 – Signed for $1.5 million in 2019, Made has plus bat speed with high contact rates and the potential for plus power. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 75/20/78/.278/.342/.450/8

999) Allan Cerda CIN, OF, 21.4 – Cerda is an athletic and projectable 6’3”, 170 pounds. He’s hit for power with high flyball rates in the Dominican League in 2018 and stateside rookie ball in 2019, but the strikeout rates are high. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 61/19/66/.243/.334/.456/7

1000) Victor Victor Mesa MIA, OF, 24.8 – Strong contact rates and speed translated to stateside ball at High-A and Double-A, but it came with a very low walk rate and absolutely zero power. Some of the lackluster numbers can be attributed to shaking the rust off after a long hiatus, but Mesa was clearly over-hyped. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 43/5/39/.254/.306/.374/14

1001) Evan Carter TEX, OF, 18.7 – Selected 50th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Carter is a projectable 6’4”, 190 pounds with a potentially plus power/speed combo. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 68/18/74/.257/.318/.426/12

1002) Jay Bruce FA, OF, 34.0 – Power bench bat. 2020 Projection: 42/16/49/.227/.289/.458/1

1003) Anibal Sanchez FA, RHP, 37.1 – Velocity was down 1 MPH to 89.2 MPH and got absolutely destroyed with a 6.62 ERA in 53 IP. 2021 Projection: 8/4.81/1.42/130 in 155 IP

1004) Julio Teheran FA, RHP, 30.2 – Put up a major dud in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA in 31.1 IP. His sinker dropped to a career low 88.7 MPH 2021 Projection: 6/4.93/1.43/111 in 130 IP

1005) Jeff Samardzija FA, RHP, 36.2 – 9.72 ERA in 16.2 IP in 2020. Velocity dropped to a career low 90.3 MPH on his 4-seamer. 2021 Projection: 8/4.98/1.39/121 in 145 IP

1006) Bryant Packard DET, OF, 23.6 – Packard’s power took a step back in 2019, but displayed a good feel to hit and advanced plate approach in both college and full season pro ball. He has no defensive value, so playing time will be another hurdle. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 53/16/58/.257/.335/.441/3

1007) Nasim Nunez MIA, SS, 20.7 – Nunez has plus speed with a good feel to hit, but has a very low 84 MPH average exit velocity. Plus glove and stole 28 bases in 51 games in his pro debut, so he may end up as a steals only guy. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 68/7/51/.262/.323/.385/19

1008) Jimmy Lewis LAD, RHP, 20.5 – Lewis is projectable 6’6”, 200 pounds with a low 90’s fastball that should tick up, a potentially plus curve and above average change. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 9/4.12/1.32/140 in 151 IP

1009) Rodolfo Castro PIT, SS/2B, 21.10 – Plus athlete who rocked 19 homers in 118 games split between Full-A and High-A in 2019, but is still raw with a 122/31 K/BB. ETA: 2022 Prime Projection: 59/16/64/.237/.311/.433/5

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 16, 2020November 17, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 50 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Welcome to the 3rd Annual Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings. We start today with the first of three posts in the Sneak Peek series, which will lead up to the full release of the Top 1,000 in late January/early February. 16-team, deep roster, 5×5 category league is what I had in my mind during the process. Here is A Top 50 Sneak Peek of the 2021 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings:

Click here for the 2020 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
Click here for the 2019 Top 1,000 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Player Name TEAM, POSITION, AGE (Years.Months on 2021 Opening Day – Months are on a scale of 0-11 … I know it is not mathematically correct, but I do all of this manually)

Projections (Hitters): R/HR/RBI/AVG/OBP/SLG/SB
(Pitchers): Wins/ERA/WHIP/K/Saves

5) Cody Bellinger LAD, OF/1B, 25.9 – Down-ish year mostly due to a .245 BABIP, but exit velocity did drop 1.8 MPH to 89.3 so it wasn’t purely due to bad luck. More importantly, he maintained the major Whiff% gains he made in 2019 with a 23.3% mark. Considering the shortened season and the fact his underlying numbers were more or less in line with career norms, it would be silly to sell low on Bellinger. 2021 Projection: 105/41/105/.275/.371/.575/14

6) Mookie Betts LAD, OF, 28.6 – Jumped on the first pitch 24% of the time in 2020, up from 16.4% in 2019. It just goes to show that even for the elite, you can never stop making adjustments. “If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.” 2021 Projection: 121/33/100/.294/.367/.536/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 27.9 – Maintained 2019’s exit velocity gains, except this year it showed up in his home run total with 12 dingers in 59 games. The added power hasn’t impacted his speed at all with the 5th fastest sprint speed in the game. On top of all that, he notched a career best 13.9% K%. He’s peaking all over our faces. 2021 Projection: 105/26/88/.297/.362/.506/34

12) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 27.4 – Underwhelming season, and while there is nothing really setting off alarm bells in the underlying numbers, he did notch a career worst 20.4% whiff% along with a career worst 4.42 runtime to 1st. Don’t go panic selling, but it might be enough to knock Lindor out of that very elite tier. 2021 Projection: 98/30/88/.272/.341/.497/17

35) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 30.0 – Season was tanked by a shoulder injury that he suffered on July 29th. Was shut down in September when an MRI revealed inflammation in the AC joint and a bone bruise. Arenado battled a shoulder injury in 2018 as well, so this seems to be a recurring issue. 2021 Projection: 93/35/106/.288/.363/.552/2

36) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 30.10 – Played through a left wrist injury, and while he couldn’t match his elite 2019 career year, he got back to doing Yeoman’s work with a .286/.418/.497 triple-slash, 9 homers, and a 31/38 K/BB in 52 games. 2021 Projection: 91/30/102/.290/.388/.533/3

37) Trevor Bauer FA, RHP, 30.2 – Drastically increased the spin rate on every one of his pitches (other than his changeup which he basically ditched) which resulted in a career high 36% K% and career low 6.1% BB%. 2021 Projection: 14/3.40/1.17/239 in 191 IP

38) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 26.9 – Backed up 2019 breakout with an equally impressive 2020, relying mostly on his dominant fastball/changeup combo. 2021 Projection: 13/3.54/1.18/227 in 180 IP

39) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 25.10 – Never fully recovered from Covid and was dealing with a lack of energy and strength all season. I’m no virologist, so I have no idea what the chances are these issues will last until 2021, but I’m going to assume a return to full health. 2021 Projection: 89/26/85/.263/.344/.475/10

40) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 25.6 – The Cardinals Covid outbreak made an already tough season even tougher for Cardinals players, and Flaherty was never really able to get on track with a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP. One thing to keep an eye on is that Flaherty’s BABIP normalized this season (.281) after sitting abnormally low the past 2 seasons. 2021 Projection: 12/3.62/1.20/214 in 184 IP

41) George Springer FA, OF, 31.6 – Put up a career best 35.9% GB% (44.6% in 2019) while also improving his K% to a career best 17.1%. It led to 14 homers in 51 games (plus 4 homers in 13 playoff games). Combined with a career year in 2019, Springer is establishing himself as a near elite hitter. 2021 Projection: 99/34/91/.272/.363/.530/6

42) Gleyber Torres NYY, SS, 24.4 – Mediocre numbers on the season (.724 OPS), but this is a pretty clear case of one extended slump tanking your numbers due to the shortened season. If there was any question, he put up a 246 wRC+ in 30 postseason at-bats. 2021 Projection: 92/30/92/.275/.357/.504/4

43) Yu Darvish CHC, RHP, 34.7 – Improved control from the 2nd half of 2019 carried over to 2020 with a career best 4.7% BB%. Also notched a career high 96.2 MPH four seamer velocity. It all resulted in Darvish moving into the very elite tier of pitchers. 2021 Projection: 15/3.27/1.09/223 in 175 IP

44) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 28.4 – Made incremental improvements in K% (30.5%), BB% (8.2%), exit velocity against (86 MPH), and launch angle against (2.2 degrees). 2021 Projection: 13/3.56/1.21/222 in 185 IP

45) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 28.4 – Didn’t pitch more than 5.2 innings in any of his 17 starts, culminating in the now infamous decision to pull him after a dominant 5.1 innings in Game 6 of the World Series. Biggest concern is his elbow, which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019 and a cortisone shot in Feb 2020. 2021 Projection: 12/3.48/1.24/221 in 170 IP

46) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 28.11 – Battled through a stress fracture in his right rib, a right shoulder injury and a right calf strain which limited him to 28 games. The injuries resulted in a 3.8 MPH drop in exit velocity. He has power to spare, but he has to be on the field to take advantage of it. 2021 Projection: 89/34/86/.263/.361/.541/4

47) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 26.4 – Ripped 10 dingers in September to close out the season after underwhelming in the first half. Alonso is your classic low average slugger. 2021 Projection: 88/40/103/.249/.342/.531/1

48) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 28.2 – Fastball was just as dominant in 2020 as it was in 2019, ranking 2nd in baseball behind only Marco Gonzalez. Changeup, curve, and slider all took a step forward as well. 2021 Projection: 13/3.51/1.15/205 in 170 IP

49) Zac Gallen ARI, RHP, 25.8 – Built on his 2019 breakout in 2020. BB% dropped down to 8.6%, which is nice to see after the 10.8% mark he put up in 2019 was the biggest cause for concern coming into the year. 2021 Projection: 12/3.61/1.25/202 in 170 IP

50) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 27.7 – K% exploded to 38.2%. Gave back some of the gains he made in BB% in 2019 (up 3.1% to 9.2%) and got hit up for a career worst 90.4 MPH exit velocity, but most of the underlying stats show the 4.08 ERA was unlucky (3.11 xERA and 2.75 xFIP). 2021 Projection: 11/3.48/1.20/205 in 159 IP

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on December 16, 2019January 14, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 100 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings Sneak Peek Series continues with the Top 100:

1) Ronald Acuna ATL, OF, 22.3 – Combination of age and stolen base upside is what separates Acuna from the pack, but a 26.3% K% presents a risk that other candidates for the top spot don’t have. In anything other than a 5×5 league (points, OBP), I would look elsewhere with the top pick. 2020 Projection: 111/37/98/.285/.367/.524/31

2) Mike Trout LAA, OF, 28.8 – Turning 29 during the 2020 season, career low 13 steal attempts, and a much younger crop of generational talent establishing themselves in 2019 are why Trout is no longer the obvious #1 pick in dynasty. I still have him #1 in redrafts. 2020 Projection: 113/46/107/.299/.442/.631/15

3) Juan Soto WASH, OF, 21.5 – Flipped hitting profile from rookie season, upping FB% to 37.2% (from 28.8%) and lowering GB% to 41.6% (from 53.7%). 97 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is 2.1 MPH higher than Trout and 1.4 MPH higher than Acuna. Soto is my #1 pick in non 5×5 dynasty leagues. 2020 Projection: 108/36/105/.296/.404/.553/10

4) Cody Bellinger LAD, 1B/OF, 24.9 – Career bests in BB% (14.4%), K% (16.4%), average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), and launch angle (17.6 degree launch). On the flip side, OPS declined every month of the season (1.397, .998, .967, .952, .918, .891, playoffs-.549). 2020 Projection: 110/43/110/.288/.383/.598/14

5) Christian Yelich MIL, OF, 28.4 – Here is what I wrote about Yelich in my 2019 Top 1,000: “… posted the lowest GB% of his career by a good margin in August and September (46% and 44%, respectively). If he can carry those gains over a full season, the power breakout may not be a complete outlier.” That is exactly what happened, with Yelich posting a 43.2% GB% and hitting a career high 44 homers. The fractured knee cap that ended his season supposedly won’t have any long term effects. 2020 Projection: 111/37/104/.309/.410/.605/20

6) Mookie Betts BOS, OF, 27.6 – As a Yankees fan, I pray to the baseball gods every night that Boston trades Mookie Betts for “can’t miss” pitching prospects. 2020 Projection: 119/33/86/.310/.402/.552/22

7) Trea Turner WASH, SS, 26.9 – Power took a big step forward, raising average exit velocity 2.5 MPH to 90.3 MPH. Remains a speedster with the 2nd fastest sprint speed in baseball, behind only Tim Locastro (Buxton is a close 3rd). 2020 Projection: 104/24/77/.293/.350/.488/41

8) Fernando Tatis Jr. SD, SS, 21.3 – With a 29.6% K% and a 6.9 degree launch angle, you can look at Tatis’ 2019 in one of two ways. Either you think he got lucky and there is serious regression coming, or you are scared at the thought of what his stats might look like when he inevitably improves on those underlying numbers. I’m in camp #2. 2020 Projection: 101/35/99/.274/.348/.531/26

9) Francisco Lindor CLE, SS, 26.4 – Small step back in K%, BB%, GB% and sprint speed, but I’m willing to write that off to his early season calf injury considering overall production remained strong. 2020 Projection: 104/32/87/.285/.349/.520/20

10) Trevor Story COL, SS, 27.4 – Carried over the major improvements he made in K% and stolen bases in 2018 into 2019. One of the premier power/speed combos in the game. 2020 Projection: 100/36/100/.283/.354/.546/22

11) Wander Franco TB, SS, 19.1 – Acuna and Soto might be old news in 2 years if Franco reaches his upside of plus to double plus all category production. He very well may be the true heir to Trout’s throne. 2020 Projection: September-13/4/9/.277/.341/.445/4 Prime Projection: 114/32/113/.316/.405/.595/19

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

14) Alex Bregman HOU, 3B, 26.0 – Gets dinged in the rankings because of the possibility of a suspension and the unknown of how much cheating improved his stats. Relatively low 92.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity is another red flag. 2020 Projection: 103/30/101/.291/.403/.538/9

15) Jose Ramirez CLE, 3B, 27.6 – Armageddon 1st half (.218/.308/.344) followed by a beastly 2nd half (.327/.365/.739) that was interrupted and ultimately cut short by a fractured hamate bone. Like Bregman, low FB/LD exit velocity (91.8 MPH) indicates some power downside. 2020 Projection: 98/30/93/.279/.358/.518/25

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

17) Austin Meadows TB, OF, 24.11 – When I ranked Meadows 54th overall in last year’s ranking, someone asked me what I was smoking. Apparently I was toking on salvia divinorum, aka, sage of the diviners, aka it’s a plant you smoke and then you hallucinate, because Meadows broke out with a .291 BA, 33 homers, and 12 steals. He hits it very hard, hits it in the air, has speed, and has a strong plate approach. 2020 Projection: 93/32/96/.282/.351/.531/15

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

20) Aaron Judge NYY, OF, 27.11 – Led the league in average exit velocity every year since getting called up in 2016. Smashed 15 homers in final 33 games to salvage what was shaping up to be a mediocre season. 2020 Projection: 107/42/101/.263/.370/.545/7

21) Bo Bichette TOR, SS, 22.1 – Like Tatis, the impressive triple slash (.311/..358/.571) is considerably better than the underlying numbers, but I’m betting on the underlying numbers mostly catching up to the slash line, rather than the other way around. 2020 Projection: 93/24/79/.282/.340/.481/18 Prime Projection: 118/34/95/.296/.373/.542/15

22) Ozzie Albies ATL, 2B, 23.3 – Average exit velocity jumped 2.5 MPH to 88.8 MPH, although exit velocity on fly balls actually decreased by 0.3 MPH. It’s still a good sign that there is another level of power in here as he matures. 2020 Projection: 107/26/84/.288/.356/.490/17

23) Gerrit Cole NYY, RHP, 29.7 – I don’t factor in age with pitchers quite as much as with hitters because every pitcher is one injury away from a career altering injury. Young pitchers also haven’t proven their arm can withstand season after season of 200+ innings which makes them more risky than an older pitcher with more miles on their arm. 2020 Projection: 18/2.92/0.98/295 in 205 IP

24) Walker Buehler LAD, RHP, 25.8 – Throws the fastest cutter by a starter at 92.8 MPH (1.8 MPH ahead of 2nd, Marcus Stroman). Final hurdle to cross is how his arm responds after a career high 195 IP (including the postseason), which is a 34 IP increase from 2018. 2020 Projection: 17/3.23/1.01/230 in 191 IP

25) Jacob deGrom NYM, RHP, 31.9 – Career high velocity on all of his pitches. Upped slider and fastball usage while ditching his sinker and minimizing the curve. 2020 Projection: 14/2.86/0.99/260 in 208 IP

26) Gleyber Torres NYY, 2B, 23.4 – Exit velocities and K/BB are solid but don’t jump out at you. 17.4 degree launch angle ensures healthy power production, and I’m expecting continued improvement in all aspects of his game. 2020 Projection: 97/32/106/.283/.352/.521/4

27) Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 27.6 – Maintained exit velocity gains from 2018 and notched a career high 10.9% BB%. With only 6 steal attempts in 155 games, you can no longer count on him in the speed department as you build your roster. 2020 Projection: 99/28/108/.296/.369/.529/7

28) Javier Baez CHC, SS, 27.4 – Getting by with pure exit velocity and speed. 2020 Projection: 98/33/103/.278/.319/.520/13

29) Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B, 29.10 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “With a 13.7% K% and 17.7 degree launch angle, there is potential for a monster career season lurking in here.” … The monster was unleashed and it landed him a $245 million contract. 2020 Projection: 104/32/108/.306/.382/.560/4

30) Keston Hiura MIL, 2B, 23.8 – Underlying stats profile as a low average, power hitting beast with a handful of steals. Ultimately should develop into more of a 20% strikeout hitter than the 30% he put up in 2019. 2020 Projection: 88/34/96/.268/.333/.507/11

31) Jack Flaherty STL, RHP, 24.6 – Velocity up about 1 MPH on every pitch and BB% was down 2.5%. Third year in a row posting well below average exit velocities against (86.1 MPH) gives hope the low BABIP’s (.242) is a skill. 2020 Projection: 16/3.38/1.11/229 in 194 IP

32) Shane Bieber CLE, RHP, 24.10 – Not a flamethrower but has advanced command over a 4 pitch mix. Batters were able to make some good contact against him with a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity against. Cole and Verlander both sat at 87.3 MPH for comparison. 2020 Projection: 15/3.41/1.09/220 in 195 IP

33) Yoan Moncada CHW, 3B, 24.10 – Not quite the speedster we all thought he was, but power showed up in a big way, upping exit velocity 2.3 MPH to 92.8 MPH. .315 batting average (.406 BABIP) is coming down. 2020 Projection: 96/30/89/.273/.360/.513/13

34) Pete Alonso NYM, 1B, 25.4 – Alonso is going to mash no matter how much Manfred loosens up those seams. 2020 Projection: 91/43/109/.263/.360/.557/1

35) Manny Machado SD, 3B/SS, 27.9 – Career worst 19.4% K% and low BABIP led to a career low .254 BA. The lack of steals was easy to predict, but now you have to worry about a mediocre average too. 2020 Projection: 92/34/102/.278/.351/.515/8

36) Eloy Jimenez CHW, OF, 23.4 – Elite exit velocity and 31 homers in 122 games proves the power wasn’t over-hyped. Has the ability to hit for both power and average when his K% comes down, and his minor league numbers suggest it will. 2020 Projection: 88/33/99/.283/.335/.530/1

37) Luis Robert CHW, OF, 22.8 – Sox have mentioned they view Robert like Eloy and we should expect an early season call up. He’s still raw at the plate, but has a power/speed combo that rivals Acuna. 2020 Projection: 63/26/68/.259/.308/.471/18 Prime Projection: 94/34/101/.277/.339/.521/25

38) Freddie Freeman ATL, 1B, 30.7 – Underlying numbers are very similar to his past two seasons when he put up 28 and 23 homers, respectively, but this season he managed to knock 38 homers. For reference, he hit 34 homers in 2016, but his exit velocity was about 2 MPH higher than 2017-2019. Freeman might be the clearest example of the impact of the juiced ball. 2020 Projection: 95/31/105/.298/.391/.543/5

39) Blake Snell TB, LHP, 27.4 – Missed two months after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery in July to remove loose bodies. Velocity was down on all of his pitches, but still among the hardest throwers in baseball. Bloated 4.29 ERA was at least partly due to a .343 BABIP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.37/1.18/223 in 178 IP

40) Ketel Marte ARI, 2B/OF, 26.6 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “13.7% K%, 9.3% BB%, 88.6 MPH average exit velocity, 92 MPH on FB/LD, and 28.7 ft/sec sprint speed. If he can start lifting the ball more and add some strength as he enters his mid to late 20’s, there is a 5-category stud lurking in here.” … Marte added 1.3 MPH to his exit velocity and 5.8 degrees to his launch angle en route to a beastly 5-category season. 2020 Projection: 93/26/88/.293/.352/.512/9

41) Carlos Correa HOU, SS, 25.6 – In the midst of a power breakout but rib and back injuries limited him to only 25 games after May. A back injury tanked his 2018 season as well, so it’s a legitimate concern. 2020 Projection: 90/32/105/.283/.362/.527/3

42) Adalberto Mondesi KC, SS, 24.8 – Underwent labrum surgery on October 3rd, with a 5-6 month recovery. Major surgeries that ruin your normal off-season routine is not a recipe for a breakout season. 2020 Projection: 78/16/74/.255/.299/.422/41 Prime Projection: 93/23/86/.274/.329/.446/49

43) Shohei Ohtani LAA, RHP/OF, 25.9 – Power and strikeouts … and strikeouts. The plan is for 1 start and 3-4 DH days per week. In weekly lineup leagues drop him down 100 spots because he can likely be viewed only as a 130 IP starter at peak. 2020 Projection: Hitting-46/17/52/.277/.349/.511/9 — Pitching-7/3.55/1.20/123 in 100 IP

44) Kris Bryant CHC, 3B/OF, 28.3 – Exit velocity is just not what it was in 2015 and 2016 when Bryant looked to be on the verge of becoming a perennial top 5 pick. I guess we’ll have to settle for merely very, very good. 2020 Projection: 110/32/80/.283/.381/.509/5

45) Matt Chapman OAK, 3B, 26.11 – Career low 21.9% K%, but a 3.6% jump in infield fly ball rate negated any possible batting average gains (.249 BA with a .270 BABIP). 2020 Projection: 105/38/96/.268/.355/.529/2

46) Mike Clevinger CLE, RHP, 29.3 – Upper back strain and sprained ankle caused Clevinger to miss almost the entire first half. Notched a career high 95.6 MPH fastball velocity, but that was on a steady decline as the season wore on. 2020 Projection: 15/3.31/1.14/222 in 190 IP

47) Stephen Strasburg WASH, RHP, 31.8 – Dominant, as usual, but he did it in a different way by upping his groundball percentage with increased sinker and curveball usage. Staying healthy all season is probably the most notable thing of all. 2020 Projection: 15/3.43/1.10/220 in 185 IP

48) Jo Adell LAA, OF, 21.0 – Elite athlete with double plus power. 32.6% K% and 0 homers in 27 games at Triple-A likely ensures at least a couple months of development time there in 2020. 2020 Projection: July-39/13/45/.250/.301/.459/6 Prime Projection: 101/37/108/.271/.353/.538/13

49) Justin Verlander HOU, RHP, 37.1 – Even at 37 years old Verlander is such a difference maker that he is worth a true elite prospect back in a trade. The cliff often doesn’t come with advanced warning, though, that is why they call it the cliff, and not the ramp. 2020 Projection: 17/3.08/1.01/270 in 208 IP

50) Max Scherzer WASH, RHP, 35.8 – Back issues held Scherzer to his lowest innings pitched total since his rookie year in 2009. He also didn’t pitch as well when he returned from the injury (4.81 ERA in 43 IP). 2020 Projection: 16/3.09/1.04/261 in 203 IP

51) Jose Altuve HOU, 2B, 29.11 – Career high K% (15%), career low stolen base total (6), and while Altuve hit a career high 31 homers, there wasn’t any significant improvements in exit velocity or flyball percentage to truly back up the power surge. 2020 Projection: 99/26/82/.292/.351/.490/13

52) JD Martinez BOS, OF, 32.7 – Best case scenario he’s Nelson Cruz and there is 7+ years of production left. Worst case scenario he’s Albert Pujols and this 32 year old season is the beginning of the end. 2020 Projection: 101/38/112/.308/.380/.570/3

53) Chris Paddack SD, RHP, 24.3 – Plus fastball/changeup combo is good enough, but continued development of the curveball can take him to the next level. 2020 Projection: 13/3.58/1.09/190 in 170 IP

54) Starling Marte PIT, OF, 31.6 – Career low 16% K%. Sprint speed is as good as ever but relying on speed as players get deeper into their 30’s is risky. 2020 Projection: 94/20/77/.289/.339/.462/28

55) Kyle Tucker HOU, OF, 22.4 – Sprint speed improved from below average in 2018 to above average in 2019. The power was never in question, but now there is hope the steals might transfer too. 2020 Projection: 71/24/77/.251/.325/.476/11 Prime Projection: 94/33/101/.265/.348/.513/15

56) Victor Robles WASH, OF, 22.10 – 81 MPH average exit velocity is cover your eyes bad. Even Stephen Strasburg managed to put up a 82.5. Jose Altuve has proven there is a path to strong power numbers with below average exit velocity (86.1 MPH), but Robles has to improve to reach even that level. 2020 Projection: 91/20/73/.272/.334/.439/27

57) George Springer HOU, OF, 30.6 – While his 2019 is likely a juiced ball aided career year, the strong underlying numbers don’t rule out the possibility of a repeat. 2020 Projection: 104/33/95/.280/.369/.525/7

58) Matt Olson OAK, 1B, 26.0 – Elite exit velocity power hitting beast. 2020 Projection: 93/38/105/.256/.345/.537/1

59) Giancarlo Stanton NYY, OF, 30.5 – Limited to 18 games due to a variety of injuries, but performed like himself in those games with a 100.3 MPH FB/LD exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 95/43/109/.261/.352/.546/3

60) Josh Bell PIT, 1B, 27.8 – Career high 37.3% FB% and 92.3 MPH exit velocity is evidence the power breakout is for real. 2020 Projection: 90/32/106/.273/.361/.528/1

61) Ramon Laureano OAK, OF, 25.9 – Plus power/speed combo but a 25.6% K% and 5.6% BB% shows he is not without risk. 2020 Projection: 89/27/84/.265/.334/.486/16

62) Tim Anderson CHW, SS, 26.9 – Career low 21% K% and career high 88.3 MPH exit velocity, along with a little BABIP luck, led to a breakout season, slashing .335/.357/.508 with 18 homers and 17 steals in 123 games. 2020 Projection: 90/23/72/.282/.321/.468/21

63) Patrick Corbin WASH, LHP, 30.8 – Backed up 2018’s breakout with another strong year on the back of his elite slider. Velocity up about 1 MPH on each pitch. 2020 Projection: 14/3.50/1.19/231 in 197 IP

64) Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 26.1 – Missed almost entire season with an inflamed rotator cuff and lat strain. Velocity wasn’t quite what it was in 2018, but at 96.1 MPH, that is more than enough. 2020 Projection: 13/3.55/1.18/200 in 175 IP

65) Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/SS, 22.4 – Another guy I was high on last year, ranking him 181st overall and writing, “Me thinks Lux is still being a bit underrated right now.” He isn’t underrated anymore. 2020 Projection: July-42/11/39/.272/.334/.451/7 Prime Projection: 98/28/93/.283/.356/.495/14

66) Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 31.0 – Inflammation in pitching elbow ended Sale’s season in August. Fastball was down 2 MPH and put up a career worst 4.40 ERA, but he still managed to strikeout 218 batters in 147.1 IP. 2020 Projection: 13/3.29/1.02/234 in 165 IP

67) Julio Rodriguez SEA, OF, 19.3 – Advanced beyond his years feel to hit which he displayed at Full-A (.293 BA), High-A (.462 BA), and the Fall League (.288 BA). Add to that at least plus raw power and you have one of the most coveted prospects in baseball. ETA: Late 2021 Prime Projection: 96/35/109/.290/.368/.550/8

68) Charlie Blackmon COL, OF, 33.9 – Career low 26.7 ft/sec sprint speed doesn’t leave much hope for a stolen base bounce back (2 steals in 2019), but he has never hit the ball harder with a career high 88.5 MPH exit velocity. 2020 Projection: 106/33/84/.307/.362/.539/6

69) Luis Castillo CIN, RHP, 27.4 – Fireballing groundball pitcher with the most valuable changeup in baseball. 2020 Projection: 13/3.63/1.19/214 in 188 IP

70) Lucas Giolito CHW, RHP, 25.9 – Fastball velocity jumped 1.8 MPH to 94.6 MPH and changeup became an elite pitch. Grandal and his plus pitch framing should counteract any regression concerns. 2020 Projection: 13/3.69/1.17/226 in 185 IP

71) MacKenzie Gore SD, LHP, 21.1 – Potential for 4 plus pitches with plus control. Destroyed Hi-A with a silly pitching line of 1.02/0.71/110/20/ in 79.1 IP. 2020 Projection: July-6/3.82/1.26/83 in 78 IP Prime Projection: 17/3.22/1.03/240 in 200 IP

72) Anthony Rizzo CHC, 1B, 30.8 – As consistent as they come. 2020 Projection: 91/30/97/.288/.381/.513/5

73) Marcus Semien OAK, SS, 29.6 – Major breakout in basically every underlying stat and surface stat you look at. Some regression is likely, but the breakout was real. 2020 Projection: 107/29/76/.279/.360/.499/11

74) Eugenio Suarez CIN, 3B, 27.7 – Online IQ test question: What is the next number in this sequence – 4, 13, 21, 26, 34, 49, _? That is Suarez’ season home run totals since entering the league. My fake online IQ of 144 tells me Barry Bonds home run record might be in jeopardy next season. 2020 Projection: 84/32/98/.266/.352/.523/3

75) Joey Gallo TEX, OF, 26.4 – Has 281 hits in his career and 110 of them are homers. 38.4% K% still makes Gallo a huge average risk, but he also led the league in exit velocity on FB/LD at 101.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 94/45/96/.234/.356/.549/4

76) Michael Conforto NYM, OF, 27.1 – Struggles vs. lefties is only true blemish (.701 OPS). 2020 Projection: 93/30/92/.263/.370/.502/5

77) Max Kepler MIN, OF, 27.2 – From my 2019 Top 1,000: “Posted career bests in K% (15.7%), BB% (11.6%), FB% (46.2%), and exit velo (89.5 MPH/93.9 MPH FB/LD). Kepler already broke out but it didn’t show up in his surface stats last year.” … It showed up this year, cranking 36 homers in 134 games while maintaining most of the underlying gains he made in 2018. 2020 Projection: 93/31/89/.266/.349/.502/3

78) Max Muncy LAD, 1B/2B/3B, 29.7 – Put any playing time concerns to rest with 589 PA, although the logjam isn’t breaking up anytime soon with Gavin Lux now trying to force his way into the lineup. 2020 Projection: 97/34/96/.254/.370/.513/3

79) Jorge Soler KC, OF, 28.1 – Huge power breakout, upping exit velocity 3.1 MPH and ripping 48 homers in 162 games. 2020 Projection: 85/33/98/.261/.350/.520/2

80) Eddie Rosario MIN, OF, 28.6 – Continued his free swinging ways (3.7% BB%) with power (32 homers) and a good feel to hit (14.6% K%). 2020 Projection: 84/28/92/.283/.316/.489/6

81) Jonathan Villar MIA, 2B/SS, 28.11 – Played in all 162 games, compiling 24 homers, 111 runs and 40 steals. Miami moving their fences in will cushion the blow a little bit from leaving Camden. 2020 Projection: 85/16/61/.263/.331/.430/34

82) Tyler Glasnow TB, RHP, 26.7 – Forearm strain knocked out most of Glasnow’s breakout season, but his velocity was fully back when he returned in September. His newfound control did not return, with 8 walks in 19.1 IP (including postseason). 2020 Projection: 10/3.58/1.19/185 in 150 IP

83) Aaron Nola PHI, RHP, 26.10 – Career best K/9 (10.19) and career worst BB/9 (3.56). Exit velocity against jumped to 88.5 MPH after being in the 85’s from 2016-2018. 2020 Projection: 14/3.66/1.21/221 in 205 IP

84) Rhys Hoskins PHI, 1B, 27.0 – Down-ish year when everyone else was experiencing a career year, but the homer/walk profile remains the same. 2020 Projection: 96/35/92/.250/.371/.512/3

85) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR, OF, 26.6 – Took power to another level with 20 homers in 84 games by raising launch angle 3.7 degrees and increasing FB/LD exit velocity 3.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 86/30/94/.270/.323/.492/8

86) Corey Seager LAD, SS, 25.11 – Career high 39.2% FB% didn’t result in a power breakout this season, but it portends good things for the future considering he was able to maintain strong exit velocity and plate approach numbers. 2020 Projection: 94/27/92/.281/.343/.496/1

87) Andrew Benintendi BOS, OF, 25.9 – 6.8% K% increase led to a down year across the board. Also has been getting slower every year. I feel more comfortable about a power rebound than I do a stolen base rebound. 2020 Projection: 93/21/86/.279/.357/.446/11

88) Nick Senzel CIN, OF, 24.8 – Underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in late September which puts his availability for opening day in question. Speed is his best asset right now, but still profiles as an above average all category contributor at peak. 2020 Projection: 74/16/66/.268/.333/.440/19 Prime Projection: 94/24/83/.278/.346/.462/23

89) Jarred Kelenic SEA, OF, 20.8 – Performed well across 3 levels of the minors in his first full season of pro ball, culminating with a 133 wRC+ at Double-A. Above average to plus potential in every category. ETA: 2021 Prime Projection: 96/25/87/.283/.351/.485/16

90) Clayton Kershaw LAD, LHP, 32.0 – Fastball velocity did not rebound to pre-2018 levels and actually lost another 0.9 MPH, but the slider is as good as ever. 2020 Projection: 14/3.38/1.09/188 in 180 IP

91) Noah Syndergaard NYM, RHP, 27.7 – Much improved changeup became his best secondary pitch but his slider took a step back, losing 2.2 MPH. 2020 Projection: 3.73/1.22/196 in 190 IP

92) Brandon Woodruff MIL, RHP, 27.2 – Third most valuable fastball in baseball behind only Cole and Flaherty. 2020 Projection: 11/3.74/1.20/190 in 165 IP

93) Jesus Luzardo OAK, LHP, 22.6 – Shoulder injury limited Luzardo to just 58 IP at a variety of levels (Rk, Hi-A, Triple-A, MLB playoffs), but he dominated at each stop with 3 plus pitches (mid 90’s fastball, curve, and change). He has a chance to be special, but with a career high of 109 IP, it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy and produce for 180+ IP. 2020 Projection: 10/3.68/1.19/160 in 142 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/213 in 183 IP

94) Julio Urias LAD, LHP, 23.8 – Announced that he will likely join the rotation in 2020. Ranked first overall in average exit velocity against at 83.2 MPH and fastball jumped 2.1 MPH to 95.2 MPH, including during the starts he made early in the season. 2020 Projection: 11/3.68/1.21/139 in 135 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.39/1.11/198 in 182 IP

95) Frankie Montas OAK, RHP, 27.0 – Found that legitimate third pitch by adding a splitter that he threw 18.2% of the time. With a plus fastball/slider combo already in tow, Montas broke out with a pitching line of 2.63/1.12/103/23 in 96 IP. 80-game PED suspension cut his season short, but he did return for 1 start in September with no noticeable performance decline. 2020 Projection: 13/3.64/1.21/185 in 170 IP

96) Gary Sanchez NYY, C, 27.4 – Elite power hitter and does it from the scarce catcher position. On the downside, catchers are always more banged up and at risk of shortened careers. It’s a give and take. 2020 Projection: 69/32/83/.252/.333/.520/0

97) Marcell Ozuna FA, OF, 29.5 – Low BABIP (.259) spoiled what could have been a huge season as Ozuna reached a career high 12 steals and 11.3% BB%. If he can repeat those gains in 2020, the upside is there for him to blow up. 2020 Projection: 82/31/93/.268/.332/.500/6

98) David Dahl COL, OF, 26.0 – Another season shortened by injury, this time by a high ankle sprain that ended his year in early August. .386 BABIP covered up a weak 110/28 K/BB in 100 games, but he displayed an above average power/speed combo and has the raw tools to take his game to the next level. 2020 Projection: 86/23/83/.271/.329/.480/9

99) Amed Rosario NYM, SS, 24.4 – Continues to get stronger, raising his exit velocity 1.9 MPH to a well above average 89.2 MPH, while maintaining his plus speed and good feel to hit. 91.2 MPH FB/LD exit velocity will have to improve in order to take the next step. 2020 Projection: 87/18/79/.283/.322/.446/22

100) Byron Buxton MIN, OF, 26.3 – In the midst of a mini breakout before a shoulder injury ended his season, which required labrum surgery in September with a 5-6 month timetable. The underlying skills (95 MPH FB/LD exit velo, 19.5 degree launch angle, and 30.3 foot per second sprint speed) are there to become a power/speed beast, even if it takes him into his late 20’s to truly put it all together. 2020 Projection: 83/23/76/.267/.321/.475/26

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 21, 2019January 6, 2020 by Michael Halpern

A Top 20 Sneak Peek of the 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings

The 2020 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings will be finished in late January/early February. I’m going to drop some sneak peeks leading up to that, starting with the top 20:

12) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, 3B, 21.0 – Modest rookie season, but make no mistake, the thunder is coming. 2020 Projection: 95/32/106/.298/.373/.538/2

13) Rafael Devers BOS, 3B, 23.5 – Ranked 16th overall in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH) and cut K% by 7.7% to 17%. 2020 Projection: 98/33/104/.302/.360/.549/7

16) Nolan Arenado COL, 3B, 29.0 – Steady as they come. 40 homers with a high average. 2020 Projection: 103/39/116/.298/.375/.568/2

18) Bryce Harper PHI, OF, 27.6 – Strikeout rate going in the wrong direction (26.1%), but power, speed, and walks are all in peak form. 2020 Projection: 100/36/103/.265/.381/.533/14

19) Yordan Alvarez HOU, OF, 22.9 – Hitting profile looks mighty similar to Bryce Harper without the speed. 2020 Projection: 93/35/104/.273/.369/.542/4

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)