Posted on by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning, er, Afternoon, Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/29/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (new update coming next week)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Travis Bazzana CLE, 2B, 21.11 – And away we go. The 2024 MLB Draft pro debuts have officially kicked off. This is where excitement and hype can go to die with a rough go of it (Jacob Berry and Chase Davis say hi), or absolutely balloon to elite levels with utter dominance (Wyatt Langford). It’s exciting and scary all at the same time. Lots can change between now and the end of the season, and with how tight it is with the top talent of the draft, a shake up can definitely happen. Bazzana is up first, making his debut at High-A, and he’s already getting his first taste of reality with a 57.1%/0.0% K%/BB% in 2 games. He had two games all season in college where he struck out multiple times and didn’t walk once, and now he’s done that in his first two games of pro ball. It’s sooooooooo early, so obviously don’t even give it a second thought right now, but those insanely inflated college stats from all these guys are about to get a cold splash right to the face. I’m buzzing with nervous excitement for all these guys to debut. You can’t hide behind metal bats and freshman pitchers anymore.

Jazz Chisholm NYY, OF, 26.6 – Hello short porch. You couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot for Jazz. His Statcast expected homer total for this year at Yankee Stadium is 19. He has 13 on the year and his expected total at Miami is 14. I know he isn’t a lift and pull maniac, but this move is a major upgrade for fantasy without even taking into account the much better lineup. He already stole a bag in his first game with the team, giving him 23 steals in 102 games. His plate approach is much improved this year with a career best 24.8%/9.0% K%/BB%. He hits the ball hard with a 10.6% Barrel%. And now he enters the perfect ballpark to maximize his game power. Jazz owners have to be over the moon right now.

Isaac Paredes CHC, 1B/3B, 25.5 – … and Paredes owners have to be whatever the opposite of over the moon is. Under the sun? His weak EV, lift and pull profile was tailored made for Tampa, but now he’s headed to a below average ballpark for righty homers. He has a Statcast expected 11 homers this year with Chicago. It almost feels too easy to say that his numbers are going to drop off immediately. He’s 0 for 8 in his career at Wrigley (obviously silly small sample). He has a .752 OPS away from the Trop this year (.830 at the Trop). I’m not sure how this could be seen as anything but a major downgrade.

Christopher Morel TBR, OF/3B, 25.2 – Just watch Morel immediately start to play to his underlying numbers with Tampa. It’s not hard to see what Tampa saw with a .346 xwOBA vs. .298 wOBA. He hits the ball hard enough where he isn’t completely ballpark dependent, but this is still a ballpark upgrade for him, and I don’t think Tampa would have made this deal if they didn’t intend on playing him nearly everyday. I feel much more comfortable about Morel’s long term playing time in Tampa than I did with Chicago. This is an upgrade for Morel.

Matt Shaw CHC, 2B/SS, 22.9 The biggest loser of this trade seems to be Shaw. His path to playing time just got a whole lot murkier, and it seems to indicate Chicago is planning on taking it nice and slow with his development. He’ll have to settle for hitting lasers in the upper minors like he did last night for his 13th homer in 80 games at Double-A. I have no idea where he fits in now, or where their 2024 first rounder, 3B Cam Smith, fits in either. Depth is great for real life, but a pain in the ass for fantasy.

Dylan Lesko TBR, RHP, 20.11 – I can’t decide if Tampa fleeced San Diego in the Jason Adam for Dylan Lesko deal, or if everyone is still falling in love with the idea of Dylan Lesko rather than the reality of him. He has a 6.46 ERA with a 25%/16.5% K%/BB% in 69.2 IP at High-A. That is quite bad. But the stuff is still really good with three potentially plus pitches in his mid 90’s fastball, nasty breaking ball, and his famously filthy changeup. This was still just his first full season coming off Tommy John, and also his first full healthy season in pro ball. It’s completely reasonable to expect growing pains, and if anyone can develop Lesko, it’s Tampa. This feels like breathing new life into Lesko’s dynasty value which was quickly evaporating.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – In last weeks’ Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown, I wrote, “Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.” … but after Saturday’s outing, that buy window is most likely slammed shut, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 0 ER, and a 11/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 96.9 MPH and put up a 38% whiff%. The slider dominated as his most used pitch with a 33% usage and 67% whiff%. And again he used a legit 6 pitch mix. He deserves to be talked about with some of the best young breakouts in the game with a 3.26 xERA (4.06 ERA) and 25.5%/4.3% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP.

Oneil Cruz PIT, SS, 25.10 – I’ve been pounding the buy drum on Cruz for years now, through injuries, strikeout problems, the slow start to this year … all of it. And it’s starting to pay off now. He cracked a 109.2 MPH homer yesterday for his 17th of the season, and he’s now slashing .320/.381/.667 with 6 homers, 3 steals, and a 27/7 K/BB in his last 20 games. A 95.2 MPH EV is just absurd, and it’s the 3rd best mark in baseball behind only Judge and Ohtani. His 28.7 ft/sec sprint is in the top 13% of the league. And his 31.9% K% isn’t too horrible. We can work with that when you have this level of truly elite talent. He didn’t budge on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon) at #40 overall, and we might be looking at a Top 20 ish dynasty asset by the end of the season if he can keep up this hot streak.

Xavier Edwards MIA, 2B/OF, 25.0 – Edwards “jacked” his first homer of the year at a lowly 96.3 MPH, but it was enough to clear the fence, and it was also enough to hit for the cycle on a 4 for 4 day … plus a walk. I feel like there should be a name for hitting for the cycle and also getting a walk. Hitting for The Unicycle? Hitting for The Cycle with a Sidecar? Ha, I like Cycle with a Sidecar. That works. Either way, Edwards has been excellent this season, slashing .379/.462/.494 with 1 homer, 8 steals, and a 15.2%/14.3% K%/BB% in 25 games. His 88.2 MPH EV is mighty impressive considering it sat at 82.2 MPH in 2023, although a 2.7% Barrel% is probably a better representation of how hard he can actually hit the ball. The plate approach is elite and he’s an excellent base stealer. It’s a Steven Kwan/Nico Hoerner-esque profile which we have obviously seen work in the majors. I wouldn’t buy in too hard, but he’s establishing himself as an interesting contact/speed player.

Gavin Lux LAD, 2B/OF, 26.8 – The Dodgers showed the patience of a saint with Lux, and it’s been paying off of late. He went 1 for 2 with 3 walks and a 98.1 MPH homer off Spencer Arrighetti. He’s now slashing .425/.500/.825 with 4 homers, 1 steal, and a 11/5 K/BB in his last 46 PA. The 88 MPH EV and 6.9% Barrel% over that time period still isn’t exactly knocking my socks off, so I’m still struggling to get too excited. I’m not seeing a monster explosion coming here. It seems like he’s rounding back into his really boring fantasy player form that he showed before going down with the knee injury.

Jhonkensy Noel CLE, 1B/3B/OF, 23.0 – 3 for 4 with a 109.6 MPH homer off Kolby Allard. I remember when Kolby Allard was a hyped high school prospect, but now he is just bottom of the roster fodder for guys like Noel to juice up their stats on. He has a career 6.11 ERA in 249 IP to go along wi … oh wait, this blurb is about Noel. My prospect nostalgia/where are they now got the best of me for a second there. As for Noel, he is exactly as advertised with 6 homers, a 91.1 MPH EV, and 35.4%/4.6% K%/BB% in 65 MLB PA. The 31.2% whiff% is better than the K rate, which is encouraging, and so is the .363 xwOBA. He’s also sneaky athletic with an above average 27.8 ft/sec sprint, and while he’s not going to steal bases, it’s still nice to see. Noel’s value continues to rise, and I would value him as a Top 300-ish dynasty asset right now.

Michael Toglia COL, 1B/OF, 25.11 – It’s hard to call the Toglia breakout anything but legit at this point (and it looks mighty similar to what Noel is doing) with him launching a 105.2 MPH homer for his 18th in 61 games. The 92.5 MPH EV and 17.5% Barrel% very clearly backs up the explosion, and a 32.3% K% is workable when you are hitting the ball that hard (and when you play at Coors). He’s a good athlete too with an above average 27.6 ft/sec sprint. The BA is obviously still a major risk, and it sits at .215 right now, so I’m certainly not going too crazy, but this does look like a legit leveling up for Toglia.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. COL. Well, at least we can be certain that Birdsong can beat the Rockies, throwing back to back dominant outings vs them. The fastball sat 95.9 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%, while all three secondaries (slider, change, curve) racked up whiffs for a 39% whiff% overall. His 4 starts vs non Rockies teams were not as smooth, so it would be nice to see him do this against a better lineup before crowning him, but it’s still an exciting start to Birdsong’s career. He now has a 2.97 ERA with a 30.2%/11.9% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. His 34.8% whiff% is elite.

River Ryan LAD, RHP, 26.0 – 5.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 8/3 K/BB vs. HOU. The fastball sat 96.1 MPH with a respectable 22% whiff%. The breaking balls missed a ton of bats, leading to a 33% whiff% overall, and the sinker dominated with a 78.8 MPH EV against and 29% whiff%. He’s looked electric since returning from missing most of the season with shoulder fatigue, and while he was solid in his first MLB outing, he took it to another level in this one, showing off the bat missing ability. He already rose to #356 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon) before he had even made his MLB debut, and now I think he’s easily within the Top 300.

DJ Herz WAS, LHP, 23.7 – 5 IP, 3 hit, 2 ER, 8/1 K/BB vs. STL. The 93.8 MPH fastball put up a 56% whiff% and it’s been a great pitch all season with a 35.1% whiff% and .251 xwOBA. His 6.6% BB% in 41.1 IP is extremely impressive considering how badly he struggled with his control in the minors. The 4.79 ERA doesn’t look great, but the 3.31 xERA looks much better. Herz was a former favorite of mine, and while I hesitate to think he can truly keep up this level of control, we know that pitcher development isn’t linear. He’s still just 23 year old, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he was taking a real step forward. While I wouldn’t give up very much for him right now, he’s definitely worth a shot in all league sizes, and if you can get him on the cheap or as a throw in as part of a bigger deadline deal, that would be perfect. There is definitely something here.

Hyun-Seok Jang LAD, RHP, 20.4 – 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 8/1 K/BB at rookie ball in the ACL championship series. It’s been an up and down first year of pro ball for Jang, but this is the type of dominance he is capable of when his control is on. He’s an absolute strikeout machine with 57 K’s in just 27.1 IP on the season, and the stuff is no joke with him getting up to 99 MPH. He is obviously still a bit of a project with a 8.14 ERA and 16.1% BB% in 24.1 IP during the regular season, but I trust the Dodgers to get the most of his talent. The breakout didn’t come this year, but I still like him a ton, and I think it’s coming down the line.

Connor Norby BAL, 2B/OF, 24.2 – 0 for 3 with 3 K’s and is now 0 for his last 10 … this is not how you entice Detroit or Chicago to want you in a trade for Skubal or Crochet.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (new update coming next week)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JULY MAILBAG! (7/31/24)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Baltimore Orioles 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I like to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team, and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Baltimore Orioles 2024 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

Hitters

Jordan Westburg BAL, 2B/3B, 25.1 – I named Westburg one of my Top 10 Early Off-Season Dynasty Targets (Patreon), because there is no better time to go after a former top prospect than when they have a lukewarm MLB debut. Westburg had only 3 homers, 4 steals, and a .715 OPS in his 68 game debut, but it’s the individual components of the underlying numbers that make me so excited. He crushed the ball with a 90.2/94.0 MPH AVG/FB EV, he had a strong 13.4 degree launch, he has plus speed with a 28.9 ft/sec sprint, he had no contact issues with a 25.8% whiff%, and he didn’t chase with an almost dead average 28.4% Chase%. To top it all off, he was a plus defensive player at both 2B and 3B. That is a pretty Teflon combination of skills to have. He proved his superiority at Triple-A too with 18 homers, 6 steals, a .295 BA and a 131 wRC+ in 67 games. While Gunnar and Adley hog all the attention on the MLB level, and Holliday, Mayo etc … hog all the attention on prospect lists, you should sneakily tip toe in there and steal Westburg from his current owner like a thief in the night. 2024 Projection: 78/23/74/.269/.330/.448/14 Prime Projection: 89/26/86/.277/.342/.471/16

Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 22.9 – If Gunnar took advantage of the new stolen base rules like almost everyone else, Gunnar vs. Carroll would still look very close today, but he only attempted 13 steals in 150 games. It’s not like he couldn’t have run more with a 28.8 ft/sec sprint and a solid 77% success rate, so if he just decides to start running more in 2024, he could quickly rise up the dynasty rankings even further. Even with the modest steal totals, there is a ton to love, led by how hard he crushes the ball. His 92 MPH EV is in the top 9% of the league, and he unsurprisingly raised his launch angle much higher than in his MLB debut in 2022 (2 degrees) with an 11.4 degree launch. He also cemented the huge jump his hit tool took in 2022 with a 25.6%/9.0% K%/BB% this year. It all led to a 123 wRC+ with 28 homers. The only issue he hasn’t corrected is his struggles vs. lefties with a .618 OPS, but Baltimore looks committed to playing him everyday and not turning him into a platoon guy, so I have faith he will hit them well enough over time. Keep in mind he will still be only 22 at the start of next season. He ranked 30th overall on A Top 78 Sneak Peek of the 2024 Top 1,000 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon). 2024 Projection: 97/30/91/.266/.341/.506/15

Pitchers

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – Rodriguez had a 7.35 ERA in his first 45.1 IP before Baltimore sent him back down, but he was different man when they called him back up, putting up a 2.58 ERA with a 24%/6.9% K%/BB% in his final 76.2 IP. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 97.4 MPH fastball and three above average to plus secondaries in his changeup, slider, and curve (he mixes in a cutter too). Even in his dominant 2nd half run, he didn’t really excel in any one area. He didn’t miss a ton of bats, the control wasn’t elite, and he didn’t particularly induce a ton of weak contact. It makes me a little hesitant to say he will be a true fantasy ace next season, but with his level of stuff and minor league performance, it seems inevitable he will get there eventually. 2024 Projection: 13/3.59/1.13/181 in 170 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.23/1.01/220 in 190 IP

Kyle Bradish BAL, RHP, 27.7 – I’m a little skeptical of fully buying into Bradish, mostly because of how elite his surface stats were relative to what I think his true talent level is. He put up a pitching line of 2.83/1.04/25%/6.6% in 168.2 IP. That is an ace level pitching line and it’s sure to push his trade value and draft value higher than I would be willing to go. His 3.82 xERA and 3.76 SIERA were both much worse. But I don’t want it to come across that I don’t like him, because he made real improvements in 2023. He threw his bad 4-seam fastball (.433 xwOBA) much less in favor of his plus 95 MPH sinker (.314 xwOBA). And he also threw his above average slider (36.4% whiff%) and curve (35.6% whiff%) more. He did all of that with improved control with a well above average 6.6% BB%. This new pitch mix has me buying into him as a Top 100-ish dynasty asset, but I wouldn’t be willing to go higher than that. 2024 Projection: 11/3.62/1.19/165 in 165 IP

Bullpen 

Yennier Cano BAL, Closer, 30.1 – Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2024, which leaves the Baltimore closer job wide open. It’s not a guarantee that Cano will win the job, but he has to be considered the heavy favorite. He broke out in 2023 with a pitching line of 2.11/1.00/65/13/8 saves in 72.2 IP. His 96.3 MPH sinker is the 4th most valuable sinker in the game (including starters) with a negative 10 degree launch and a .292 xwOBA against. His changeup and slider both get whiffs with a 40.5% and 37.7% whiff%, respectively. And he showed elite control with a 4.6% BB%. He doesn’t strike enough guys out to be considered in the elite tier, and he doesn’t have a strong enough hold on the job both this year and in the future to really extend yourself for him, but it seems likely he will be an above average closer in 2024. 2024 Projection: 3/3.22/1.14/66/28 saves in 65 IP

Baltimore Orioles Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 20.4 – Holliday’s power/speed combo really wasn’t that huge with only 12 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts) in 125 games spread across 4 levels (A, A+, AA, AAA). It dropped off even further in the upper minors with 5 homers and 4 steals in 54 games. It seems crazy to start his blurb off with criticism, but when the battle for the top prospect in the game is so close, it needs to be highlighted. Now that we got that out of the way, Holliday had an absolutely insane season where he slashed .323/.442/.499 with a 20.3%/17.4% K%/BB%. He was in high school last year, and he displayed one of the most advanced plate approaches of any prospect all the way through Triple-A. This is why everyone drools over kids with baseball bloodlines, they tend to be far advanced beyond their years. As I mentioned, the power isn’t fully developed yet with relatively low flyball rates, but he hits the ball hard with a 30.2% Hard Hit% and a 90.9 MPH EV in 40 batted balls at Triple-A, so I’m not concerned about the power long term. He has the safety edge over Chourio, but it’s not like Chourio is a risky prospect, so Holliday will slot in at #2 for me on my upcoming 2024 Top 500 Prospects Rankings. 2024 Projection: 78/16/71/.270/.339/.441/20 Prime Projection: 117/27/94/.296/.382/.506/28

2) Coby Mayo BAL, 1B/3B, 22.4 – My boldest prediction in last off-season’s Predicting the 2024 Top 50 Prospects Rankings was that Coby Mayo would explode to a Top 10 prospect, predicting that “Mayo will follow in Gunnar Henderson’s footsteps with an off the charts type season in the upper minors. He’ll put up a 150 wRC+ at Double-A and a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A. The K% will be under 25%, the power will be huge, and there will be some surprising speed too.” … Mayo put up a 178 wRC+ in 78 games at Double-A and a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at Triple-A. The power was huge with 29 homers in 140 games, and the K% was under 25% at 24.1%. I don’t think I could have nailed that more even if I was actually able to see into the future. The surprising speed didn’t really show up with only 5 steals, but better than nothing. The 6’5”, 230 pound Mayo is now a truly elite power hitting prospect, just as I expected. 2024 Projection: 31/11/35/.242/.319/.455/2 Prime Projection: 86/34/99/.265/.346/.535/6

3) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 19.8 – The biggest issue with Basallo has nothing to do with him. It’s that Adley isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. And with Baltimore trying to build a Tampa Bay North situation, I don’t think they are going to feel pressured to trade him either. His bat will profile just fine at 1B, but now we’re talking about competition with Coby Mayo and possibly Heston Kjerstad too. Maybe I’m just borrowing trouble a bit too much, because Basallo looks like he has a special bat. He’s a built up 6’3” with a treacherous lefty swing that is made to do damage, slashing .313/.404/.551 with 20 homers, 12 steals, and a 94/61 K/BB in 114 games at mostly Single-A and High-A. Four of those games came at Double-A where he put up a 220 wRC+. He’s a complete hitter with power, contact, and patience. And he did all of that as an 18 year old for most of the season. If defense wasn’t a slight issue (he’s not a particularly good defensive catcher either), I would likely be even higher on him, but he has the type of bat where maybe you should just completely ignore it. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 84/32/95/.272/.354/.517/5

4) Heston Kjerstad BAL, 1B/OF, 25.1 – Kjerstad finally played in his first full professional season since being draft 2nd overall in 2022 due to myocarditis, and he showed why he got draft so highly, slashing .303/.376/.528 with 21 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 122 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. He cooled off towards the end of the season with a .680 OPS in his final 34 games, but that’s understandable as he almost doubled his career high in games. He also closed the year out in the majors where he showed off the massive power with 2 homers, a 92.3 MPH EV and 19.3 degree launch in 33 PA. The power is unquestionable, but the plate approach was rough with a 30.3%/6.1% K%/BB%, and his plate approach hasn’t been the strongest point of his game going back to college, so there is certainly some risk there. There is also a major, no ending in sight playing time scrum brewing in Baltimore. 2024 Projection: 44/15/50/.246/.313/.452/3 Prime Projection: 76/27/85/.259/.325/.483/6

5) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 25.6 – Hall wasn’t able to properly ramp up last off-season which resulted in his fastball velocity dropping a tick or two in the 1st half, and he struggled because of it with a 4.67 ERA in his first 44.1 IP. Baltimore then shut him down for a month to build strength back up and his velocity returned in a bullpen role in the 2nd half. He closed out the year in the majors and showed why he’s been such a highly touted prospect with a 2.84 ERA and 31.2%/6.5% K%/BB% in 22.2 IP (including the playoffs). The 95.6 MPH fastball was silly elite with a .243 xwOBA and 30.2% whiff%, the changeup was plus with a 36.4% whiff% and .241 xwOBA, and the slider was mediocre with a 31% whiff% and .358 xwOBA. It resulted in a near elite 30.3% whiff% overall. The most impressive thing was his control (6.5% BB%) as he’s struggled with his control his entire career. I think Baltimore is going to be tempted to continue to use him out of the bullpen, but I hope they give him a real chance to win a rotation spot out of camp, because he will almost surely win one. This is legit ace upside, and although the control improvements were in a small sample and out of the bullpen, they are extremely encouraging to me. I came into this blurb expecting to be lukewarm on Hall, but I’m kinda all in on him now. I would buy low for sure. 2024 Projection: 5/3.64/1.28/110 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 11/3.53/1.24/180 in 150 IP

6) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser had a terrible MLB debut with a lowly 40 wRC+ and .115 BA in 77 PA, but he got massively unlucky. He had a .175 BABIP, his .302 xwOBA was much higher than his .226 wOBA, and none of his underlying numbers looked concerning at all really. He was a beast at Triple-A with a 136 wRC+, 17 homers, and 9 steals in 87 games. Despite not being overly concerned with the MLB debut, there are a few things that make me think he could end up a more solid than standout 5×5 BA fantasy player. The strikeout rates are on the high side with a 26.8% K% at Triple-A and 28.6% in MLB, the launch angle is on the low side with a 25.2% flyball% at Triple-A and 4.6 degree launch in MLB, and he’s not a true burner with a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed. Add a star in OBP leagues as he’s an extremely patient hitter who rarely chases, but I’m seeing a more solid across the board type than a true league winner. 2024 Projection: 43/9/36/.248/.322/.410/7 Prime Projection: 83/21/77/.264/.348/.440/14

7) Enrique Bradfield BAL, OF, 22.4 –  If Willie Mays Hayes were a real person, he would be Enrique Bradfield. Selected 17th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Bradfield is an absolute terror on the bases with 37 steals in 62 games at Vandy. He then literally stole a base a game in pro ball with 25 steals in 25 games at mostly Single-A. He has a legit shot of stealing over 50 bags with the new rules, and can maybe even approach Esteury Ruiz levels, but like Ruiz, the other parts of his hitting profile leave something to be desired. He has well below average power and the hit tool really isn’t that great either. He had a .279 BA this year in college and he hit 0 homers in his pro debut with the wood bats (he also had 0 homers in 11 games in the wood bat Cape League in 2022). He’s purely a speed play, but that speed can carry your fantasy team. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 77/8/49/.263/.331/.378/41

8) Mac Horvath BAL, 3B/OF, 22.8 – Selected 53rd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Horvath is a high risk, high reward college bat with a big power/speed combo and hit tool issues. He’s a great athlete at a strong 6’1”, 195 pounds with a quick and powerful righty swing. He cracked 24 homers with 25 steals in 60 games in the ACC, and then he obliterated pro ball with a 323 wRC+ in 3 games in rookie ball, 160 wRC+ in 14 games at Single-A, and 184 wRC+ in 5 games at High-A. It was good for 5 homers and 14 steals in 22 games overall. He’s on the older side, the 26.3% K% shows the hit tool risk, and Baltimore is stacked, so the path to playing time isn’t clear, but he’s the type of prospect you buy when you want big upside from someone who isn’t a teenager. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 71/23/76/.237/.318/.448/18

9) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 22.8 – Beavers has yet to show the level of power he displayed in college on the pro level with only 11 homers and a weak 22.2% Hard Hit% in 119 games split between High-A and Double-A, but everything else in his profile looks strong with a mature plate approach, solid contact rates, and speed. He slashed .288/.383/.467 with 27 steals and a 22.1%/13.3% K%/BB%. He performed even better at Double-A (150 wRC+) than he did at High-A (125 wRC+). There is definitely more raw power in the tank at 6’4”, 206 pounds, so if he can find a way to tap into it more, he could be trouble. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 78/18/72/.260/.328/.421/16

10) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 25.9 – This last spot is a toss up between Ortiz and Norby, but I think both are headed for part time roles to start their careers with Gunnar, Holliday, and Westburg ahead of them on the depth chart. I gave the nod to Ortiz because he has the superior glove, which is often the determining factor for who gets on the field. He also hits the ball quite hard (90 MPH EV at Triple-A and a 88.2 MPH EV in his 34 PA MLB debut), has above average speed (28.1 ft/sec sprint) and has above average to plus contact rates (17.7%/8.2% K%/BB%). Along with the playing time concerns, he doesn’t lift the ball enough to put up big homer totals, and the upside seems lacking in general. 2024 Projection: 22/5/17/.258/.317/.398/6 Prime Projection: 73/16/69/.274/.331/.418/16

Just Missed

11) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 23.9

12) Chayce McDermott BAL, RHP, 25.7

13) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 24.0

14) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 23.6

15) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 25.6

16) Braylin Tavera BAL, OF, 19.1

17) Leandro Arias BAL, SS, 19.2

18) Matthew Etzel BAL, 3B, 21.11

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Development isn’t linear, and that goes tenfold for pitchers, but it can be hard to figure out how to apply that knowledge in practice, rather than just in theory. So I appreciate DL Hall making it really easy on us. Just as his dynasty value and ranking on prospect lists have fallen off a cliff to levels lower than it’s ever been, is when his target status has never been juicier for me. The velocity dipped in the first half of the season, he hasn’t been able to meaningfully improve his control in 6 years, and the bullpen is calling his name, so people are starting to give up. But his velocity bounced back in the 2nd half and he had a legitimate reason for the 1st half dip, he showed glimpses of improved control for the first time in his career, and he showed the potential for dominant performance on the MLB level. And of course, the filthy stuff that made him so hyped earlier in his career is still there with an elite mid 90’s fastball and 2 potentially plus secondaries in his changeup and slider. I’ve never been higher and more excited about him, and his value has never been lower. I’m going after him.

Previous Dynasty Team Reports on Patreon

Chicago White Sox–Cincinnati Reds (free)–Cleveland Guardians–Colorado Rockies–Houston Astros–Kansas City Royals–Milwaukee Brewers–New York Mets (free)–New York Yankees (free)–Pittsburgh Pirates–San Diego Padres–Toronto Blue Jays–Washington Nationals

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 78 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2024 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-END OF SEASON 2023 TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: OCTOBER MAILBAG! (10/27/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, predicting future prospects lists, strategy articles, podcasts and very, very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on by Michael Halpern

Baltimore Orioles 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Baltimore Orioles 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Boston Red Sox—Minnesota Twins—Washington Nationals

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Hitters

Jorge Mateo BAL, SS, 27.10 – Mateo is one my top sells this off-season. Those 13 homers and 35 steals are going to look mighty enticing to a speed needy team, but he still ranked only 114th overall on the Razzball Player Rater because of weak production everywhere else. He had a .221 BA with 63 runs and 50 RBI. His underlying numbers look even worse with a .272 xwOBA which is in the bottom 6% of the league, and his plate approach is terrible with a 27.6%/5.1% K%/BB%. I’m not even sure the new stolen base rules are going to help him because he doesn’t get on base enough to take advantage of it, and steals aren’t going to be as hard to find next year in general. If those were the only issues, I might not even be too scared off, but Baltimore’s stacked minor league system is breathing down his neck with Gunnar Henderson, Connor Norby, and Jordan Westburg ready to stake their rightful claim to the infield. Mateo was an excellent defensive SS last year, but I don’t think it will be enough for him to hold down the starting job. I think he’ll be a super utility player by the 2nd half of the season. 2023 Projection: 68/11/53/.230/.277/.385/28

Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 25.2 – Rutschman stepped into the majors and immediately turned Baltimore into winners. He didn’t get called up until late May and his 5.3 WAR was still the 2nd best catcher mark in the majors (JT Realmuto was 1st with a 6.5 WAR). His 133 wRC+ was the 4th best overall. It’s a hell of a MLB debut, and as much as I want to go crazy for Rutschman, I would pump the brakes slightly in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never really been a monster home run hitter with 13 homers in 113 games, and while his 87.9/93 MPH AVG/FB EV is solid, it’s not like he was smashing the ball. In an OBP league or in 6+ categories, by all means go crazy for his elite plate approach (18.3%/13.8% K%/BB%) and .362 OBP. Having said that, I still like him a lot in 5×5 BA as his 15.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average, and his counting stats should be elite for a catcher. There are a lot of really talented catcher prospects in the pipeline behind Rutschman, but Rutschman is leading the pack as my #1 catcher for Dynasty Baseball no matter what the league categories are. 2023 Projection: 86/22/78/.266/.374/.465/5

Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 28.5 – Baltimore turned into one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in the league, but someone forget to tell Santander that. He quietly turned into one of the better hitters in baseball with plus contact rates (18.9% K%), a career best walk rate (8.5% BB%), strong EV’s (90.1 MPH), and a launch angle that is made for dingers (21.4 degrees). It all led to 33 homers with a .352 xwOBA. His .240 BA kept his overall line in check, and while he’s not a high BABIP guy, a .248 BABIP is below his career average of .264. He’s not going to be super undervalued, but there should still be some meat on the bone for where he’ll likely be going. 2023 Projection: 81/31/92/.254/.326/.477/1

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 28.7 – Out of all of Baltimore’s fringy starting pitchers, Wells is my favorite. He’s 6’8”, 255 pounds with near elite control (6.6% BB%) and an above average whiff rate (25.1% whiff%). He throws a high spin 93.5 fastball to go along with 3 secondaries that all put up well above average xwOBA’s (slider-.283/change-.219/curve-.185). It all led to a 3.78 xERA (4.25 ERA) and a 1.14 WHIP in 103.2 IP. He has some injury risk as an oblique strain held him out for all of August, and then his season ended in September due to shoulder inflammation, but his price is likely to be dirt cheap this off-season. He’s going to be a target of mine everywhere. 2023 Projection: 10/3.95/1.18/138 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Felix Bautista BAL, Closer, 27.10 – Bautista’s control took a big step forward this year and it propelled him to the land of the elite. He dropped his BB/9 from 5.8 in the minors in 2021 to 3.2 in the majors in 2022. He throws a 99.2 MPH fastball to go along with a whiff inducing splitter (52.9% whiff%) and slider (42.5%). He put up a pitching line of 2.19/0.93/88/23 in 65.2 IP, and took over the full time closer job after Jorge Lopez got traded, notching 15 saves. Baltimore should provide him with plenty of saves opportunities next season. His lack of track record and name value should keep his price from completely exploding this off-season. 2023 Projection: 4/2.93/1.06/90/36 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

3) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez really shouldn’t be on this list. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

4) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

5) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – Norby must have been bored at High-A because he lifted off when he got to the upper minors. He put a 99 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, a 158 wRC+ in 64 games at Double-A, and a 190 wRC+ in 9 games at Triple-A. It resulted in 29 dingers, 16 steals, and a 20.8%/10.1% K%/BB% in 121 games. It’s a do it all profile and it shouldn’t be long before he gets his first shot at the bigs. 2023 Projection: 58/14/61/.258/.324/.427/7 Prime Projection: 82/22/78/.275/.339/.450/10

6) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 24.7 – Hall’s had major control issues his entire career and it really didn’t take a step forward this year with a 14.2% BB% and 1.45 WHIP in 76.2 IP at Triple-A. His stuff is utter filth, so he can be effectively wild with a whiff inducing 96.2 MPH fastball to go along with a potentially plus slider, change, and curve. The stuff translated against MLB hitters with a 29.7%/9.4% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP mostly coming out the pen, albeit with a 5.93 ERA (2.57 ERA). Baltimore’s rotation is so weak at the moment, there is no reason they wouldn’t give him every opportunity to start, and he has legitimate ace upside if the control takes a step or two forward. 2023 Projection: 7/3.95/1.37/130 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.65/1.32/195 in 172 IP

7) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.4 – Mayo is a 6’5”, 215 pound power hitting bull with an electric, lightning quick swing. He drilled 19 homers in 104 games split between High-A and Double-A. His hit tool took a step back when he got to Double-A with it spiking to 34.5% in 34 games (21.5% at High-A), but he was only 20 and I don’t think he has major hit tool issues. He likely won’t hit for a high average in the majors, but he has legitimate 40 homer upside at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 80/32/91/.256/.338/.515/6

8) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1 – Wesburg’s power exploded this year, jacking 27 homers in 138 games split between Double-A and Triple-A after hitting 15 homers in 112 games in 2021. He’s a former 1st round pick who’s an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 203 pounds and has a mature plate approach with a 23.6%/11.3% K%/BB%. He was actually better at Triple-A (129 wRC+ in 91 games) than he was at Double-A (122 wRC+ in 47 games). He’s a big part of the season why I’m concerned Mateo ends up in a super utility role. 2023 Projection: 47/12/51/.246/.312/.408/6 Prime Projection: 74/24/79/.261/.328/.443/11

9) Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 25.3 – Stowers seems to be the forgotten prospect in Baltimore, but his power hitting upside is very real. He cracked 19 homers in 95 games at Triple-A and then got called up to the majors and put up a 91.1 MPH EV with a 107 wRC+ in 98 PA. He’s a lefty that might actually hit lefties better than righties, so there isn’t major platoon risk. He only had a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, and there are hit tool concerns with a 29.6% K%, but he will be an excellent later round shot to take in the majority of dynasty leagues. 2023 Projection: 69/24/76/.242/.317/.448/2 Prime Projection: 75/28/84/.253/.326/.470/3

10) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Fabian’s hype almost completely disappeared after he decided to return to college for his senior year, even though he is still the same age as many juniors. His strong pro debut has people talking again though with a 1.070 OPS and 21/19 K/BB in 22 games at mostly Single-A. He did improve his swing and miss issues this year in college, but a .239 BA with a 22.3 K% isn’t exactly great. It’s a 3 true outcome slugger profile, except he has speed and defensive ability to go with it. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/74/.232/.315/.435/8

Just Missed 

11) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 21.8

12) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.2

13) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 18.8

14) Drew Rom BAL, LHP, 23.4

15) Darell Hernaiz BAL, SS, 21.8

16) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 24.6

17) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 23.0

18) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 24.3

19) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 24.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Last off-season I took part in a 20 team Dynasty Mock Draft over at Rotowire and went with the bold strategy of taking Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez with the 18th and 23rd overall picks. All of my top targets were off the board, and I wanted to come up with angle to give me a long term leg up against very savvy, tough competition. It definitely raised some eyes and got some push back. Needless to say, the strategy paid off as I now have two long term pillars to build around for years. The other players I was considering in that area (Betts, Yordan, Machado) all had excellent years too, so I’m not claiming to be some genius, but it’s a reminder that the true elite of the elite prospects deserve to be right in that conversation, and I wouldn’t hesitate to do the same thing with Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll this year. These guys have elite dynasty upside, and while it certainly adds more risk than going with a chalk pick, a little extra risk isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you’re trying to beat out 19 other owners.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Boston Red Sox—Minnesota Twins—Washington Nationals

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)