Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (5/1/23):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! 
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

Carlos Jorge CIN, 2B, 19.7 – The little man discount is one of the most reliable discounts in prospecting, and there is a small army of little prospects ready to overthrow the Heightriarchy. The 5’10”, 160 pound Jorge is leading the charge after a huge day at the dish yesterday, going 4 for 7 with a double, homer, steal, and 0/1 K/BB in a doubleheader. He’s now slashing .323/.408/.532 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 25.4%/11.3% K%/BB% in 18 games at Single-A. He’s never put up a wRC+ under 151 or had an OBP under .400 in his 3 year career, but because he’s not 6’3”, he immediately gets discounted. Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Wander Franco, Corbin Carroll, Cedric Mullins, Francisco Lindor, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and many more have all proven you don’t have to be 6 feet or over to be an elite MLB player. Down with the Heightriarchy.

Luisangel Acuna TEX, SS/2B, 21.1 – Not even his older brother, Ronald, could protect Luisangel from the little guy bullying that he’s had to face his entire career on prospect lists. The 5’8” Acuna stole 3 bags yesterday, and he’s been handling his business at Double-A all year, slashing .319/.369/.436 with 1 homer, 10 steals, and a 20.2%/7.7% K%/BB% in 21 games. The power hasn’t come yet, but keeping that K rate in check is huge to see, and he’s a base stealing machine.

Jonatan Clase SEA, OF, 20.11 – The 5’9”, 150 pound Clase is trying to shatter that glass ceiling with Jorge and Acuna.  He went 1 for 4 with a steal and 1/2 K/BB yesterday and is now slashing .337/.455/.723 with 7 homers, 16 steals, and a 26.7%/16.8% K%/BB% in 20 games at High-A. Acuna, Jorge, and Clase were all named targets for me this off-season because I don’t see height. Clase cracked my Top 100 in the Updated Top 324 Dynasty Prospects Rankings that dropped last week on my Patreon.

Termarr Johnson PIT, 2B/SS, 18.11 – The 5’8”, 175 pound Johnson actually did get the respect he deserved in prospect rankings, but I was actually a little skeptical of how good that hit tool really was, predicting in the Predicting the Top 50 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Rankings that “Johnson’s hit tool at Single-A won’t be as good as the hype.” He went 1 for 3 with a 2/0 K/BB yesterday and now has a 41.2% K% and .214 BA in 5 games. It’s still a super super small sample, and I still love him even if I do think the hit tool was maybe a little overhyped, but the slow start does play into my fears from the off-season.

Harry Ford SEA, C, 20.1 – The 5’10” Ford might not be tall, but he is a built like a tank, and he’s hitting like a tank. He went 2 for 6 with a double yesterday and is now slashing .282/.453/.493 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 18.9%/23.2% K%/BB% in 19 games at High-A. This coming off his great WBC for Great Britain which nearly got him knighted. He’s splitting his time between catcher and DH, and at this point, I almost hope he gets moved off catcher to let his bat shine. He has the speed and athleticism to play elsewhere.

Adael Amador COL, SS, 20.1 – Amador feels like he is part of the little man brigade, but he actually checks in at 6’0” on the dot. He got a late start to the season, but he’s starting to cook after drilling his first 2 homers of the year at High-A in 11 games. His elite contact rates have transferred to the level with a 11.3% K%, and so has his speed with 4 steals, but his high walk rates haven’t yet with a 3.8% BB%. His 56.8% GB% is probably too high to ever be a true power hitter, but he’s a high probability big leaguer with a strong across the board profile.

Denzel Clarke OAK, OF, 23.0 – Forget everything I just said about height. Now this is what a ballplayer is supposed to look like at 6’5”, 220 pounds with towering power and elite athleticism. This is the scout’s dream. Clark debuted on April 25th at Double-A and has done nothing but rake. He homered yesterday on a 3 for 5 day and now has 4 homers with a 372 wRC+ in 4 games. Most importantly, the K rate has been solid with a 26.3%/15.8% K%/BB%. If he can maintain even a below average K rate, oh boy, because this is a huge man with huge talent and nothing but opportunity in Oakland, er, Las Vegas.

Taj Bradley TBR, RHP, 22.0 – 1 IP, 5 hits, 8 ER, 2/2 K/BB at Triple-A. Tampa’s front office are either magic yogi’s who can see into the future and demoted Bradley before he could have this blow up in the majors. Or they are humans who undeservedly sent a kid down who was killing it in the majors, and being yanked around like that messed with his performance. I choose to believe it is the former.

Logan Allen CLE, LHP, 24.7 – 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 8/2 K/BB vs. BOS. The fastball sat 91.9 MPH and he induced tons of weak contact with a 85.9 EV against. Allen has pitched to ace levels in his MLB debut with a 2.45 ERA and 35.6%/6.7% K%/BB%, but there are signs he is pitching above his head. The 28.7% whiff% is not as big (although still good) and the 4.54 xERA is much higher than the ERA. He also didn’t display this level of control in his minor league career. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a super encouraging MLB debut, but I wouldn’t expect him to keep it up to this level.

Nick Frasso LAD, RHP, 24.5 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4/2 K/BB at Double-A. LA’s pitching logjam be damned, Frasso is one of my favorite pitching targets in the minors. He now has a 1.23 ERA with a 34.9%/5.8% K%/BB% in 22 IP. He has a nasty, plus 3 pitch mix and he’s like a lefty with a funky delivery, expect he throws righty, if you know what I mean. There is certainly risk he ends up in the pen because of circumstances, injury risk, and lack of innings in his career, but I just can’t ignore how high his upside is. I named him a target in my Top Dynasty Baseball Targets that dropped on Friday on the Patreon.

 Rayne Doncon LAD, 2B/SS, 19.7 – Doncon went 4 for 4 with a double, steal, and a 430 foot bomb. He’s now getting into position to truly explode up rankings, slashing .262/.344/.464 with 5 homers, 2 steals, and a 25%/11.5% K%/BB% in 20 games. He has an explosive swing that screams big time power and has shown a good feel to hit his entire career. Now is the time to get in on him if you haven’t already.

Elijah Green WAS, OF, 19.4 – Elly 2.0 has arrived. Green smashed a homer in back to back games for his first 2 of the year to go along with 8 steals and a 48.1% K% in 17 games at Single-A. He’s even rawer than we expected, but the talent is so huge it’s worth being patient for the hit tool to come around.

Samuel Zavala SDP, OF, 18.9 – Zavala broke out of his early season slump in a huge way, going 4 for 5 with a homer and a steal. All of a sudden his wRC+ is up to 106 as an 18 year old in 18 games at Single-A. It’s also a reminder of how we are still in the small sample size part of the season. One big game can take a guy from struggling hard, to being an above average hitter overnight. He’s still the phenom we thought he was.

Cam Collier CIN, 3B, 18.5 – Speaking of 18 year olds performing above average in full season ball, Collier ripped his first homer at the level on a 2 for 8 day to bring his season wRC+ up to 116 in 14 games. The 26.7% K% is a tad higher than optimal, and so is his 58.6% GB%, so while he’s not going full breakout, he’s proving his FYPD hype was deserved.

Colin Barber HOU, OF, 22.4 – Just call him high cholesterol, because Barber is the quietest killer in the minor leagues. He cracked his 2nd homer in 15 games at Double-A to bring his season wRC+ up to 145. Also, just look at his man’s quads. If this was fantasy football twitter, our heads would be exploding.

Tyler Locklear SEA, 1B, 22.5 – Locklear was drafted 58th overall as a bat first prospect, and that bat is rolling right through the lower minors after he cracked 2 homers yesterday. He has 4 homers with a 21.%/9.6% K%/BB% and 146 wRC+ in 20 games at High-A. He’s played exclusively 1B this year, so the bat will have to hit it’s ceiling to get playing time in the majors. I think the bat is real, but I probably wouldn’t get too excited until he’s doing it in the upper minors.

Cayden Wallace KC, 3B, 21.9 – Wallace went 2 for 8 with a dinger last night, and he’s another moderately hyped 2nd round pick who is handling his business at High-A, slashing .306/.414/.542 with 3 homers, 3 steals, and a 20.7%/14.9% K%/BB% in 20 games. Again, doing it at High-A doesn’t truly explode their ranking, but they are trending up and they should get the chance to prove themselves at Double-A in the not too distant future.

Jonny DeLuca LAD, OF, 24.9 – DeLuca was one of the many big risers in the Updated Top 324 Prospect Rankings, and he’s not slowing down after going 3 for 5 with his 6th homer in 20 games at Double-A. He could be that next sneaky, older prospect that comes out of nowhere for the Dodgers.

Daylen Lile WAS, OF, 20.4 – The 47th overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Lile missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but I kept the faith on him just barely by ranking him 1,012 overall on the off-season Top 1,000. I also gave you a heads up that he looked pretty good in his spring debut. That faith has been rewarded after he went 3 for 5 with a homer yesterday. He’s now slashing .333/.409/.632 with 3 homers, 5 steals, and a 19.7%/10.6% K%/BB% in 14 games at Single-A. He’s 20 at Single-A, but we can give him a pass for that because of the missed development time. Now is probably the time to get in on him.

Darell Hernaiz OAK, SS/2B/3B, 21.8 – Oakland was happy to scoop Hernaiz off the back of the overstuffed middle infield prospect Orioles truck, and he’s delivering after going 3 for 5 with a dinger last night. He’s slashing .313/.366/.453 with 2 homers, 5 steals, and a 20.8%/8.3% K%/BB% as a 21 year old at Double-A. Oakland is the perfect spot for him with playing time galore available.

Kyle Harrison SFG, LHP, 21.8 – 3.2 IP, 0 hits, 1 ER, 7/4 K/BB at Triple-A. Harrison has more walks than innings pitched, and not by a little either with 21 walks in 15.2 IP. That is extreme to say the least. The stuff is so nasty it has still resulted in only a 4.02 ERA and 35.1% K%, and 15.2 IP is still a small sample. His value is dropping because the risk is getting even higher, but in general, he is a hold for me. Let’s see if he can work through these early season control problems, as he just needs to maintain below average control to thrive.

Carson Whisenhunt SFG, LHP, 22.5 – Whisenhunt got the call to High-A and was lights out, going 4 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball was sitting in the mid 90’s and the changeup was nasty as usual. Here are the highlights from his start. The breaking ball can definitely look a little dinky, and it’s still the lower minors, but it could be time to start getting excited. He looks like a good one.

Tsung-Che Cheng PIT, SS, 21.10 – If feels fitting to end this Rundown like we started it, with the smallest prospect of them all standing at 5’7″, 154 pounds. But his production has been anything but small (never had a wRC+ under 129 in his 3 year career), and he’s officially killing it again after going 2 for 5 with a homer yesterday. Cheng is now slashing .275/.359/.551 with 4 homers, 7 steals, and a 19%/11.4% K%/BB% in 18 games at the age appropriate High-A. His power is ticking up this year which he combines with plus speed and a good feel to hit. He also plays a solid SS, which could get his bat on the field. He’s still more of a deeper league pickup, but he’s one to keep your eye on at least.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-UPDATED TOP 433 APRIL DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-UPDATED TOP 324 APRIL PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP DYNASTY BASEBALL TARGETS (4/28/23)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: MAILBAG! 
-PREDICTING THE 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL PROSPECTS RANKS
-7 EARLY SEASON DYNASTY STRATEGIES AND THOUGHTS

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Baltimore Orioles 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the Baltimore Orioles 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona DiamondbacksBoston Red SoxMinnesota TwinsWashington Nationals

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Hitters

Jorge Mateo BAL, SS, 27.10 – Mateo is one my top sells this off-season. Those 13 homers and 35 steals are going to look mighty enticing to a speed needy team, but he still ranked only 114th overall on the Razzball Player Rater because of weak production everywhere else. He had a .221 BA with 63 runs and 50 RBI. His underlying numbers look even worse with a .272 xwOBA which is in the bottom 6% of the league, and his plate approach is terrible with a 27.6%/5.1% K%/BB%. I’m not even sure the new stolen base rules are going to help him because he doesn’t get on base enough to take advantage of it, and steals aren’t going to be as hard to find next year in general. If those were the only issues, I might not even be too scared off, but Baltimore’s stacked minor league system is breathing down his neck with Gunnar Henderson, Connor Norby, and Jordan Westburg ready to stake their rightful claim to the infield. Mateo was an excellent defensive SS last year, but I don’t think it will be enough for him to hold down the starting job. I think he’ll be a super utility player by the 2nd half of the season. 2023 Projection: 68/11/53/.230/.277/.385/28

Adley Rutschman BAL, C, 25.2 – Rutschman stepped into the majors and immediately turned Baltimore into winners. He didn’t get called up until late May and his 5.3 WAR was still the 2nd best catcher mark in the majors (JT Realmuto was 1st with a 6.5 WAR). His 133 wRC+ was the 4th best overall. It’s a hell of a MLB debut, and as much as I want to go crazy for Rutschman, I would pump the brakes slightly in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never really been a monster home run hitter with 13 homers in 113 games, and while his 87.9/93 MPH AVG/FB EV is solid, it’s not like he was smashing the ball. In an OBP league or in 6+ categories, by all means go crazy for his elite plate approach (18.3%/13.8% K%/BB%) and .362 OBP. Having said that, I still like him a lot in 5×5 BA as his 15.6 degree launch angle is conducive to both power and average, and his counting stats should be elite for a catcher. There are a lot of really talented catcher prospects in the pipeline behind Rutschman, but Rutschman is leading the pack as my #1 catcher for Dynasty Baseball no matter what the league categories are. 2023 Projection: 86/22/78/.266/.374/.465/5

Anthony Santander BAL, OF, 28.5 – Baltimore turned into one of the worst hitter’s ballparks in the league, but someone forget to tell Santander that. He quietly turned into one of the better hitters in baseball with plus contact rates (18.9% K%), a career best walk rate (8.5% BB%), strong EV’s (90.1 MPH), and a launch angle that is made for dingers (21.4 degrees). It all led to 33 homers with a .352 xwOBA. His .240 BA kept his overall line in check, and while he’s not a high BABIP guy, a .248 BABIP is below his career average of .264. He’s not going to be super undervalued, but there should still be some meat on the bone for where he’ll likely be going. 2023 Projection: 81/31/92/.254/.326/.477/1

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Wells BAL, RHP, 28.7 – Out of all of Baltimore’s fringy starting pitchers, Wells is my favorite. He’s 6’8”, 255 pounds with near elite control (6.6% BB%) and an above average whiff rate (25.1% whiff%). He throws a high spin 93.5 fastball to go along with 3 secondaries that all put up well above average xwOBA’s (slider-.283/change-.219/curve-.185). It all led to a 3.78 xERA (4.25 ERA) and a 1.14 WHIP in 103.2 IP. He has some injury risk as an oblique strain held him out for all of August, and then his season ended in September due to shoulder inflammation, but his price is likely to be dirt cheap this off-season. He’s going to be a target of mine everywhere. 2023 Projection: 10/3.95/1.18/138 in 150 IP

Bullpen

Felix Bautista BAL, Closer, 27.10 – Bautista’s control took a big step forward this year and it propelled him to the land of the elite. He dropped his BB/9 from 5.8 in the minors in 2021 to 3.2 in the majors in 2022. He throws a 99.2 MPH fastball to go along with a whiff inducing splitter (52.9% whiff%) and slider (42.5%). He put up a pitching line of 2.19/0.93/88/23 in 65.2 IP, and took over the full time closer job after Jorge Lopez got traded, notching 15 saves. Baltimore should provide him with plenty of saves opportunities next season. His lack of track record and name value should keep his price from completely exploding this off-season. 2023 Projection: 4/2.93/1.06/90/36 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Gunnar Henderson BAL, SS/3B, 21.9 – Nothing makes me more comfortable about a prospect than one who gets called up to the majors and immediately puts up elite exit velocity numbers. Henderson smacked the crap outta the ball to the tune of a 92.4/98.1 MPH AVG/FB EV in 132 MLB PA. That would almost be enough for me to love love a player on it’s own, a la Oneil Cruz, but Henderson does just about everything else well too. His hit tool improved majorly this year, dropping his K% from 30.1% in 2021 in mostly the lower minors, to 23.1% in 2022 in the upper minors. The improvements transferred to the majors with a very reasonable 26.6% whiff% and 25.8% K%. He’s put up high walk rates his entire career and he’s also very fast with a 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed. He’s almost a flawless prospect. 2023 Projection: 82/25/85/.262/.347/.473/14 Prime Projection: 106/32/102/.278/.383/.518/16

2) Jackson Holliday BAL, SS, 19.4 – Baseball is starting to feel like it is a hereditary monarchy, where all star games are passed down based on bloodlines like it’s the 1300’s. Jackson is the son of Matt, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions and loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son. Husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the ne … my bad, lost myself there 🙂 … Like many plus bloodline kids, Jackson is an advanced hitter, and he combines that with plus athleticism and a plus power/speed combo. He truly wields the bat like it’s a samurai sword, gracefully killing the ball with a smooth and powerful lefty swing. He stepped right into pro ball and was far too advanced for rookie ball (220 wRC+ with a 6.1%/30.3% K%/BB% in 8 rookie ball games) before performing well in 12 games at Single-A (130 wRC+ with a 17.5%/26.3% K%/BB%). Druw Jones and Holliday are in a tier of their own on my First Year Player Draft Rankings. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 96/25/88/.278/.357/.491/14

3) Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 23.5 – Rodriguez really shouldn’t be on this list. He should have graduated. But he did what pitching prospects do and missed 3 months with a lat strain. He was a bit rusty when he returned in September with a 4.12 ERA and 29/14 K/BB in 19.2 IP. He had a 2.09 ERA with a 80/14 K/BB in 56 IP at Triple-A before going down with the injury. When completely healthy he has plus control of a devastating 4 pitch mix, all of which have the potential to be at least plus. It’s true ace upside. He’s my #1 pitching prospect in baseball and is a good bet to break camp with the team. 2023 Projection: 10/3.73/1.22/161 in 150 IP Prime Projection: 15/3.15/1.05/240 in 200 IP

4) Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 23.0 – Cowser’s hit tool got exposed this year, putting up a 28.4% K% at High-A, 25.4% K% at Double-A, and 30.6% K% at Triple-A. It’s a little concerning considering that was supposed to be his best skill, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver everywhere else. He walked a ton with a 15% BB%, and he displayed an above average power/speed combo with 19 homers and 18 steals in 138 games. Even with the high strikeout rates he still put up a .278 BA. He showed more risk than optimal in 2022, but it was still a positive year overall with a .874 OPS. His strong across the board profile remains intact. 2023 Projection: 20/4/18/.248/.319/.405/4 Prime Projection: 85/20/77/.264/.343/.442/15

5) Connor Norby BAL, 2B, 22.10 – Norby must have been bored at High-A because he lifted off when he got to the upper minors. He put a 99 wRC+ in 48 games at High-A, a 158 wRC+ in 64 games at Double-A, and a 190 wRC+ in 9 games at Triple-A. It resulted in 29 dingers, 16 steals, and a 20.8%/10.1% K%/BB% in 121 games. It’s a do it all profile and it shouldn’t be long before he gets his first shot at the bigs. 2023 Projection: 58/14/61/.258/.324/.427/7 Prime Projection: 82/22/78/.275/.339/.450/10

6) DL Hall BAL, LHP, 24.7 – Hall’s had major control issues his entire career and it really didn’t take a step forward this year with a 14.2% BB% and 1.45 WHIP in 76.2 IP at Triple-A. His stuff is utter filth, so he can be effectively wild with a whiff inducing 96.2 MPH fastball to go along with a potentially plus slider, change, and curve. The stuff translated against MLB hitters with a 29.7%/9.4% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP mostly coming out the pen, albeit with a 5.93 ERA (2.57 ERA). Baltimore’s rotation is so weak at the moment, there is no reason they wouldn’t give him every opportunity to start, and he has legitimate ace upside if the control takes a step or two forward. 2023 Projection: 7/3.95/1.37/130 in 120 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.65/1.32/195 in 172 IP

7) Coby Mayo BAL, 3B, 21.4 – Mayo is a 6’5”, 215 pound power hitting bull with an electric, lightning quick swing. He drilled 19 homers in 104 games split between High-A and Double-A. His hit tool took a step back when he got to Double-A with it spiking to 34.5% in 34 games (21.5% at High-A), but he was only 20 and I don’t think he has major hit tool issues. He likely won’t hit for a high average in the majors, but he has legitimate 40 homer upside at peak. ETA: 2023 Prime Projection: 80/32/91/.256/.338/.515/6

8) Jordan Westburg BAL, SS, 24.1 – Wesburg’s power exploded this year, jacking 27 homers in 138 games split between Double-A and Triple-A after hitting 15 homers in 112 games in 2021. He’s a former 1st round pick who’s an excellent athlete at 6’3”, 203 pounds and has a mature plate approach with a 23.6%/11.3% K%/BB%. He was actually better at Triple-A (129 wRC+ in 91 games) than he was at Double-A (122 wRC+ in 47 games). He’s a big part of the season why I’m concerned Mateo ends up in a super utility role. 2023 Projection: 47/12/51/.246/.312/.408/6 Prime Projection: 74/24/79/.261/.328/.443/11

9) Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 25.3 – Stowers seems to be the forgotten prospect in Baltimore, but his power hitting upside is very real. He cracked 19 homers in 95 games at Triple-A and then got called up to the majors and put up a 91.1 MPH EV with a 107 wRC+ in 98 PA. He’s a lefty that might actually hit lefties better than righties, so there isn’t major platoon risk. He only had a 92.6 MPH FB/LD EV, and there are hit tool concerns with a 29.6% K%, but he will be an excellent later round shot to take in the majority of dynasty leagues. 2023 Projection: 69/24/76/.242/.317/.448/2 Prime Projection: 75/28/84/.253/.326/.470/3

10) Jud Fabian BAL, OF, 22.6 – Selected 40th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, Fabian’s hype almost completely disappeared after he decided to return to college for his senior year, even though he is still the same age as many juniors. His strong pro debut has people talking again though with a 1.070 OPS and 21/19 K/BB in 22 games at mostly Single-A. He did improve his swing and miss issues this year in college, but a .239 BA with a 22.3 K% isn’t exactly great. It’s a 3 true outcome slugger profile, except he has speed and defensive ability to go with it. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 76/26/74/.232/.315/.435/8

Just Missed 

11) Dylan Beavers BAL, OF, 21.8

12) Heston Kjerstad BAL, OF, 24.2

13) Samuel Basallo BAL, C/1B, 18.8

14) Drew Rom BAL, LHP, 23.4

15) Darell Hernaiz BAL, SS, 21.8

16) Seth Johnson BAL, RHP, 24.6

17) Cade Povich BAL, LHP, 23.0

18) Hudson Haskin BAL, OF, 24.3

19) Joey Ortiz BAL, SS/2B, 24.9

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Last off-season I took part in a 20 team Dynasty Mock Draft over at Rotowire and went with the bold strategy of taking Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez with the 18th and 23rd overall picks. All of my top targets were off the board, and I wanted to come up with angle to give me a long term leg up against very savvy, tough competition. It definitely raised some eyes and got some push back. Needless to say, the strategy paid off as I now have two long term pillars to build around for years. The other players I was considering in that area (Betts, Yordan, Machado) all had excellent years too, so I’m not claiming to be some genius, but it’s a reminder that the true elite of the elite prospects deserve to be right in that conversation, and I wouldn’t hesitate to do the same thing with Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll this year. These guys have elite dynasty upside, and while it certainly adds more risk than going with a chalk pick, a little extra risk isn’t necessarily a bad thing when you’re trying to beat out 19 other owners.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)