Drew Thorpe – Imaginary Brick Wall

Posted on July 22, 2024July 27, 2024 by Michael Halpern

Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Dynasty Baseball Rundown (7/22/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 11 MID-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS (6/25/24)
-MID-SEASON TOP 422 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKS (7/12/24)
-JUNE TOP 305 PROSPECTS RANKS (6/14/24) (new update coming soon)
-TOP 57 2025 FYPD RANKS (7/19/24)
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: JUNE MAILBAG! (6/28/24) (new Mailbag coming soon)
-TONS OF DYNASTY RUNDOWNS
-SPREADSHEETS

Max Clark DET, OF, 19.7 – The stupendous 2023 MLB Draft class is casting such a long shadow that all anyone can talk about is how crappy the 2024 Draft class is in comparison, and while I would argue they are being too harsh, especially for fantasy, (check out the 2025 Top 57 FYPD Rankings that just dropped on Patreon last week), the 2023 class is out here teaching the 2024 class how it’s done in pro ball. Clark just homered his way into a promotion to High-A, going 3 for 4 with a laser shot into the License to Chill Lounge. He tacked on a double and stolen base in his final game at Single-A. He earned that promotion with 7 homers, 26 steals, a 133 wRC+, and 17.4%/14.4% K%/BB% in 73 games. That is fully living up to his hype, and the final step to superstardom will be naturally gaining strength and raising his launch (48.6% GB%), although he has the type of profile that can thrive with a low launch. He isn’t even one of the truly most hyped names in the class …

Dylan Crews WAS, OF, 22.5 – Speaking of one of the most hyped names in the class, arguably too hyped, Crews is out here working to put some shine back on his name, utterly destroying a 409 foot, 103.3 MPH bomb for his 4th in 23 games at the level. The 97 wRC+ might not be super impressive, but 4 homers with 5 steals, a 16.8%/9.7% K%/BB% and 89.2 MPH EV looks pretty damn good to me. With all the hand wringing over Crews and ball washing over Langford, it would be pretty funny if Crews took MLB by storm when he got his chance and passed Langford again. Langford has been coming on of late, but his season line is still quite beatable.

Walker Jenkins MIN, OF, 19.5 – The mega hyped Jenkins had a hammy delay his full take off, but he’s been healthy and in a groove for a little while now, going 2 for 4 with 2 walks and a steal yesterday. He now has a 140 wRC+ on the back of a 12.5%/19.5% K%/BB% in 28 games at Single-A. It’s great to see how advanced of a hitter he is, but we have enough elite plate approach weaklings to go around, we need him to start doing some real damage. Only 2 homers with a 87.3 MPH EV is lackluster. We know he has the raw power in the tank at 6’3”, 210 pounds, so I don’t doubt it’s coming, but it would be nice to see some more of it.

Brice Matthews HOU, SS, 22.4 – Matthews didn’t get the hype of the aforementioned names, unless you read my work this off-season which named Matthews as one of my favorite FYPD targets, and he’s more than delivered. He went 2 for 4 with 2 steals and an absolute NUC out to deep centerfield that hit off the cotton press. Why they have a cotton press in centerfield is anyone’s guess, but the announcer was hyped that he hit it. He’s homered in back to back games at Double-A, and now has 4 homers, 6 steals, and a 125 wRC+ in 25 games at the level. The 34.1% K% is definitely too high and adds a healthy does of risk, but he’s proving his upside is no joke, and you have to be happy with this performance compared to his very reasonable FYPD price.

Arjun Nimmala TOR, SS, 18.9 – Nimmala was down on the mat to start the year, simply not looking ready for pro ball, but that was understandable considering how young he was for the class, and now that he’s found a groove, it’s been a homer fest. He drilled his 3rd homer in 6 games at Single-A, and since getting recalled to the level, he’s put up a 1.042 OPS with 4 homers in 16 games. The 32.8% K% over that time period still shows the rawness in his game, but a 110 wRC+ in 45 games on the season is quite impressive for a legit 18 year old. The power is very real, and with more refinement, a true explosion could be coming in 2025.

Hayden Birdsong SFG, RHP, 22.11 – The only thing thinner than Colorado’s air is their lineup, and Birdsong came into Coors and sliced his way through both the air and the lineup, going 6 IP with 2 hits, 2 ER, and a 12/2 K/BB. The breaking pitches were working just fine in that air with a 63% whiff% on the curve and 59% whiff% on the slider. The non breaking pitches were working just fine too with a 57% whiff% on the 95.8 MPH fastball and 50% whiff% on the changeup. He dominated in every facet of the game, and his MLB debut is looking pretty good now with a 3.55 ERA and 28.3%/11.3% K%/BB% in 25.1 IP. His 33.7% whiff% is in the elite range. Birdsong has been underrated for a while now, but a start like this will start to turn people’s head. The below average control certainly adds risk, but he has the type of stuff and swing and miss to overcome that. I’ve been relatively high on Birdsong for over a year now, and I love what I see with his MLB debut. I’m still buying.

Spencer Schwellenbach ATL, RHP, 24.2 – Schwellenbach is officially one of the most exciting young starters in the game, and is a major target if you can buy off his inflated 4.62 ERA (3.74 xERA). He had another impressive outing yesterday, going 6 IP with 7 hits, 4 ER, and a 8/0 K/BB vs. STL. The fastball sat 95.7 MPH and put up a 29% whiff%. The splitter was devastating with a 64% whiff%. And he used a 6 pitch mix to notch a 34% whiff% overall. He got hit hard in this one with a 93.3 MPH EV, but he hasn’t been hit hard this season with a 4.7% Barrel% against. He just rose to #212 overall on the Mid-Season Top 422 Dynasty Baseball Rankings (Patreon), finishing his blurb by writing, “He looks damn good. I would buy off the high ERA if you can.” He has the big velocity, he has the big pitch mix, he has plus control, he induces weak contact, he has above average whiffs, and he has three plus secondaries. #212 might not even be high enough, he might be worthy of knocking on the door of the Top 100 area right now. He’s starting to look like a young near ace.

Drew Thorpe CHW, RHP, 23.10 – 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. KC. The filthy changeup is just impossible to pick up with a 43% whiff%. It really acts more like knuckleball. It can really end up anywhere with multiple different movement profiles. It’s pretty wild and it’s befuddled MLB hitters with a .246 xwOBA and 38.8% whiff% on the season. It’s led to a 3.03 ERA with a 15.4%/10.9% K%/BB% and 86 MPH EV against in 38.2 IP. There is little doubt at this point the changeup will play against the best hitters in the world. It wasn’t only the changeup in this game though, the slider also dominated with a 64% whiff%, and that pitch has also been good with a .293 xwOBA (.176 wOBA) and 30% whiff%. I struggle to fully buy in with such a mediocre K/BB rate, but this is essentially a knuckleballer+ profile, and knuckleballer’s can definitely get the job done without great K/BB rates. I’m buying in more and more, but I still see limited upside in the long run.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI, RHP, 25.9 – 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 7/1 K/BB vs. CHC. He did what he does best which is double plus control of a good fastball, to go along with two good secondaries in his sweeper and changeup. I named him a major target in my Top 11 Mid-Season Dynasty Baseball Targets article (Patreon), and since then he has a 0.77 ERA with a 25/3 K/BB in 23.1 IP. Not bad. I hope you bought when the price was reasonable.

James Wood WAS, OF, 21.10 – Wood cooled off a bit from his blazing start in the majors, but he was back at it yesterday, going 2 for 4 with a 105.9 MPH homer off lefty Justin Wilson. That wasn’t even his hardest hit ball of the day, it was his 3rd hardest hit ball with a 109 MPH lineout and 107.2 MPH single off lefty Andrew Abbott. He now has a 12.2% Barrel% and 93.5 MPH EV in 17 games. The 33.3% K% and negative 7.6 degree launch is definitely showing off some rawness, and he’s not a finished product, but nothing is dissuading me from thinking Wood is a future superstar. He crushes the ball too hard, and he’s shown in the minors he can improve his hit tool. The explosion might not be coming this year, but it’s coming.

Jackson Chourio MIL, OF, 20.4 – I’m not going to say Chourio has fully arrived, because there is another level in here he hasn’t even started to scratch yet, but he’s certainly getting closer after going 2 for 4 with a 108.6 MPH double off Joe Ryan and 107.7 MPH, 443 foot homer off Jorge Alcala. He’s now slashing .314/.368/.512 with 5 homers, 5 steals, and a 17.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in his last 36 games. Everything in his underlying numbers is setting a super strong foundation for him to build on in future years. He’s right on track, just give him another year or so.

Leodalis De Vries SDP, SS, 17.9 – It’s not just the 2023 Draft class that was impressive, the international class was special too, and De Vries has been exploding into elite prospect status right before our eyes. He cracked his 7th homer in 54 games at Single-A with that beautiful and powerful swing that straight up looks MLB ready. He now has a .976 OPS with 7 homers, 6 steals, and a 20/13 K/BB in his last 19 games. He ranked 199th overall on those Updated Dynasty Rankings, and that number will just keep climbing.

Zebby Matthews MIN, RHP, 24.2 – Matthews got the call to Triple-A, and he unsurprisingly had no issues in his first start at the level, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 2 ER, and a 6/0 K/BB. The fastball sat 95.3 MPH with a respectable 20% whiff%, the cutter induced weak contact with a 86.8 MPH EV, and the breaking balls missed bats with a 67% whiff% on the curve and 33% whiff% on the slider. I’ve been all over Matthews all season, putting him in the Top 50 on the latest Top 305 Prospects Rankings (new update coming soon on Patreon). He’s walked 6 guys all season in 83 IP, which is dumb. He combines the truly elite control with big velocity, over 30% K rates at each level, and a diverse pitch mix. He’s an elite pitching prospect.

Hunter Barco PIT, LHP, 23.7 – Barco made his first outing at a new level as well, making the big jump to the upper minors at Double-A, and he delivered, going 3 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 5/0 K/BB. I love me a funky lefty, and while Barco’s stuff isn’t huge, he proved it will play just fine in the upper minors. Before Double-A he put up some big numbers at High-A with a 3.34 ERA and 30.4%/8.7% K%/BB% in 62 IP. Pitt has yet another really really good arm in the stable. I would value Barco as at least a Top 200 prospect, and he might be sneaking into the Top 150 area now.

Jarlin Susana WASH, RHP, 20.4 – Susuna has the Hunter Greene starter pack with an upper 90’s fastball and plus slider, and while that pack has been sitting in the plastic for awhile, he’s been starting to put it together of late. He made his 2nd outing at High-A and looked good, going 5 IP with 4 hits, 3 ER, and a 7/1 K/BB. That walk rate is the most important thing to watch, and he now has a 29.3%/7.3% K%/BB% in 10 IP at the level. Over his last 40 IP at Single-A and High-A, he’s put up a 1.58 ERA and 40.1%/9.2% K%/BB%. That is exactly the type of breakout we have been waiting for. There is still control/bullpen risk, but I don’t see how this type of talent isn’t a Top 100 prospect with what he’s been doing of late. He needs to be owned in every league.

Justyn-Henry Malloy DET, 3B/OF, 24.1 – Malloy went 1 for 3 with a walk and walloped a 104 MPH homer off Kevin Gausman for his 6th in 35 games. He’s been extra hot of late with a 1.060 OPS, 4 homers, and a 13/7 K/BB in his last 14 games. He’s showing the power will play in the majors with a 11.1% Barrel%, but I don’t quite trust that the BA will be good enough to sustain a full time job long term. The 20.2 degree launch is extreme and so is the 35.5% whiff%. The .187 xBA is scary. It’s hard not to say that the MLB debut has been a success, but I would still have some caution before buying too high here.

Lawrence Butler OAK, OF, 24.0 – The underlying numbers were screaming that a breakout was coming Butler’s first time around in the majors, and after a reset at Triple-A, the breakout is here. He’s been a hit machine since returning to the majors, going 2 for 3 with a double and 2 walks yesterday, and is now slashing .385/.439/.885 with 7 homers, 2 steals, and a 13/5 K/BB in his last 15 games. He has a 92.2 MPH EV, 11.7% Barrel%, and a .340 xwOBA. The 28.5%/9.7% K%/BB% ain’t that bad. I’ve loved Butler for awhile now, and stayed patient through his surface stats struggles. It’s paying off in a big way now. I’m buying.

Michael King SDP, RHP, 29.2 – King’s slow start to the season dug a deep hole for his hype that he’s been trying to climb out of all season, but I think it’s high time to acknowledge that the dominant run he went on to close the 2023 season was no fluke. Dude has been performing like a true ace for almost 3 months now. He once again put on a dominant performance vs. CLE, going 7 IP with 2 hits, 1 ER, and a 6/1 K/BB. He led with the changeup up in this one with a 41% usage, and it was unhittable with a 55% whiff% and 70.4 MPH EV against. The 4 seamer and sweeper were spotless as well with a 36% whiff% and 60% whiff%, respectively. It led to a 75.8% MPH EV against and 45% whiff% on the day. the jumped to 130th overall on those Updated Top 422 Dynasty Rankings (Patreon), and I don’t think a placement inside the Top 100 is unwarranted at this point. He’s starting to cement near ace status.

Drue Hackenburg ATL, RHP, 22.4 – I’ve been talking a lot of shit about the Hackenburg family lately after what Christian Hackenburg did to me as a Jets and Nittany Lions fan, but Drue went out and put some respect back on his family name yesterday, going 7 IP with 3 hits, 1 ER, and a 16/0 K/BB at Double-A. I mean, wow, what a performance. Here are the highlights of the dominance. He now has a 3.43 ERA with a 35.9%/12% K%/BB% in 21 IP at the level. It’s still not good enough to convince me to go after him though. For me, it’s personal, it’s not business 😉

Shane Baz TBR, RHP, 25.0 – 3.1 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 1/5 K/BB vs. NYY. The slider didn’t induce a single whiff and he put up a lowly 12% whiff% on the day. He now has a 6.78 xERA with a 19%/11.1% K%/BB% in 13.2 IP. Clearly, something isn’t right. This is why you have to factor in some added risk for pitchers coming off Tommy John. And it’s often their 2nd year back that they return to form, rather than their first year back. This isn’t going to be a smooth ride back to full health, and I think it’s fair to start worrying, but in the long run, I would try to stay patient.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on October 9, 2023October 14, 2023 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

The 2024 off-season festivities have officially kicked off on the Brick Wall with the first Dynasty Team Report of the year. Like during the regular season, I will release a freebie here on Imaginary Brick Wall on some Mondays with the vast majority of the content over on the Patreon. Off-season content will include these Dynasty Team Reports, along with Deep Positional Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, podcasts, predicting future prospect lists, the Top 100 FYPD rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings. Here is the New York Yankees 2024 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-SEPTEMBER TOP 476 DYNASTY RANKINGS
-SEPTEMBER TOP 393 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 54 2024 FYPD RANKINGS
-TOP 10 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST: SEPTEMBER MAILBAG! (9/22/23)
-Off-Season content includes team dynasty reports, deep positional rankings, strategy articles, podcasts and very early releases of my Top 100 FYPD Ranks, Top 500 Prospects Ranks, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Ranks

Hitters

Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 22.11 – Volpe might be easier to acquire this off-season than he was last off-season, which is wild, but is also par for the course in dynasty leagues. If rookies don’t immediately Corbin Carroll the league, people get discouraged and throw the bust label around. In reality, Volpe’s value should be considerably higher after the year he just had. Not only did he go 20/20 (21/24), but all of the underlying numbers are screaming a future breakout is coming with a 9% barrel%, 88.7 MPH EV, 14.2 degree launch, and 28.4 ft/sec sprint speed. The 27.8%/8.7% K%/BB% wasn’t great, but it’s far from the danger zone, and it’s really not bad for a 21/22 year old who had 99 total PA at Triple-A coming into the year. If cold hard numbers aren’t your thing, Volpe even has Black Magic on his side. His OPS was the number of the beast, .666. I don’t know what is going to happen to Volpe’s soul, but the Devil keeps his promises. Max Kepler was the only player to have a .666 OPS in 2022, and this season he had the highest wRC+ of his career at 124 (.816 OPS). Literally all signs, both natural and supernatural, are pointing towards a big 2024 for Volpe. He’s an easy target. 2024 Projection: 81/25/79/.245/.316/.451/31

Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 23.10 – I guess the Devil only has room for one Yankees rookie on his ledger, because I see no promises made for Peraza in 2024. He swung and missed far too often for his type of profile with a 33.1% whiff% in 191 PA, which led to a .191 BA. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to make up for the swing and miss with a below average 87.2 MPH EV in the majors and 85.2 MPH EV at Triple-A. He also has never really been a big OBP guy with mostly mediocre walks rates throughout his career. The plus speed and defense are what carries his profile, and while both are good enough to make Peraza an attractive low cost option, his former prospect hype could push his value higher than I would be willing to go. 2024 Projection: 53/9/46/.238/.299/.388/17 Prime Projection: 77/17/68/.254/.319/.415/23

Pitchers

Michael King NYY, RHP, 28.10 – King pitched too damn well once being transitioned to a starter to leave a ton of value on the bone. He put up a 2.02 ERA with a 45/7 K/BB in his final 35.2 IP. There is nothing in the underlying data to say it was a fluke, and he’s been lights out for 2 years now in whatever role the Yanks put him in. The stuff is good, he misses bats, he induces weak contact, and he doesn’t have any major control issues. He was also a starter throughout his minor league career, so it’s not like starting is a new challenge for him. Everything is pointing towards him being for real, but there are a couple things to consider before you really sell the farm for him. His velocity was slowly declining to close out the season, and he also had a serious arm injury in 2022 (fractured elbow which required surgery). It adds at least some doubt if he can truly keep up this level of production under a full starter’s workload. I’m willing to go after him if the price doesn’t get too out of control, but I’m concerned with how he closed out the season, his price could get too out of control. 2024 Projection: 9/3.51/1.19/162 in 145 IP

Carlos Rodon NYY, LHP, 31.4 – An elbow and back injury delayed the start of Rodon’s season until July, and while there were glimpses of him regaining his old form, it was mostly a straight disaster with a 6.85 ERA and 22.4%/9.8% K%/BB% in 64.1 IP. His finish to the season was the most concerning as his velocity was way down, and he gave up 8 earned runs without recording a single out in his final outing. If you’re a glass half full person, you can look at this as a lost season due to the injuries and expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2024, but if you’re a glass half empty person, you are looking at him like a ticking time bomb, especially with his injury history. I’m the type of person who looks at that glass and sees the water in the middle (I live in the gray), which is how I would value Rodon for next year. 2024 Projection: 9/3.57/1.20/160 in 140 IP

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.4 – Holmes 27.1% K% isn’t high enough to put him in the truly elite closer tier when you have guys like Felix Bautista putting up a 46.4% K% (and plenty of others in the mid to high 30’s), but he’s in the tier right under that. He uses a 96 MPH sinker which he throws 69.2% of the time to keep the ball on the ground (negative 3.4 degree launch), and he uses a dominant slider (.176 xwOBA and 43.1% whiff%) and sweeper (.079 xwOBA and 44.2% whiff%) to miss bats. He’s locked in as the Yanks closer for 2024. 2024 Projection: 4/3.09/1.12/72/32 saves in 64 IP

New York Yankees Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 21.2 – The backlash to Dominguez’ early career hype made it hard to hold the line, but I remained all in on Dominguez last off-season, ranking him 10th overall, and he more than delivered on that ranking this year. He hit 15 homers with 37 steals and a 25.6%/15.2% K%/BB% in 109 games at Double-A as a 20 year old. Then he quickly ran through Triple-A with a 180 wRC+ in 9 games, before finishing out his season with 4 homers and a 162 wRC+ in 8 games in the majors. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery put a halt to what was sure to be insane hype this off-season, but I wouldn’t let the Tommy John surgery scare you off. It isn’t as big of a deal for hitters as it is for pitchers, and he’s expected to return by the 2nd half of 2024. His extremely good MLB debut will likely make it hard to get good value for him this off-season even with the surgery, so my move would be to hope he needs to shake off some rust when he returns next season to bring his value into a more reasonable range again. 2024 Projection: 30/8/226/.242/.324/.438/10 Prime Projection: 92/26/86/.266/.361/.485/28

2) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 22.11 – Strikeouts are the only thing we have to worry about with the uber talented 6’6”, 235 pound beast, which is why his 28.2% K% in 78 PA at Double-A is actually encouraging. That number could have easily skyrocketed against more advanced pitching after putting up a 29% K% in 100 games at High-A. Jones can live in the upper 20’s and still thrive due do his double plus power/speed combo. He hit 16 homers and stole 38 bags in 117 games. His groundball rates are on the high side, but with how hard he hits the ball, it might actually be a good thing to ensure his batting average doesn’t tank too low. It’s more or less the Elly De La Cruz package, and just like I’m buying Elly, I’m buying Jones too. 2024 Projection: 27/7/23/.217/.283/.411/8 Prime Projection: 76/23/82/.241/.318/.465/26

3) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 19.7 – Arias has elite prospect written all over him, and with a good showing in full season ball in 2024, it won’t be long before he skyrockets into the Top 10 overall. He hits the ball hard (6 homers in 27 games in stateside rookie ball), he has speed (17 steals), he has an excellent plate approach (22.3%/20.8% K%/BB%), he’s a good defender, and he has pedigree ($4 million international signing). He most certainly looks the part too with a vicious lefty swing (he went 2 for 11 on the entire season hitting righty). He won’t come super cheap this off-season, but he’s easily worth targeting at his current price. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 86/22/80/.264/.348/.471/24

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 24.9 – Wells’ MLB debut gave me a ton of confidence that the profile will transfer. He had a 14% barrel%, 89.5 MPH EV, 13.6 degree launch, 18.7% K%, and .367 xwOBA in 75 PA. Boone also praised his defense. He didn’t exactly blow the doors off the upper minors, but he still hit 17 homers in 96 games. The Yankee Stadium short porch is perfect for him, and the bar to clear to be an impact fantasy catcher isn’t very high right now. I don’t think he is going to be a fantasy beast, but I do foresee a top 10 fantasy catcher for years to come. 2024 Projection: 56/18/63/.235/.307/.410/3 Prime Projection: 71/23/77/.252/.331/.442/5

5) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 23.0 – Pereira’s 43.1% whiff%, 38.8% K%, and 23 wRC+ in his 103 PA MLB debut is exactly what we didn’t want to see happen. That is the kind of disaster MLB debut that has to make you think twice about betting on a player, but I would be careful about giving up on Pereira too fast. He truly crushes the ball, he has well above average speed, and he decimated the upper minors with a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and 132 wRC+ at Triple-A. You only have to look at his teammate, Aaron Judge, to find hope, as Judge put up a 44.2% K% in his 95 PA MLB debut in 2016. When a guy hits the ball this hard, you don’t need to be Luis Arraez to do damage. The extreme swing and miss does have me less excited for him than I was before his debut, but I’m still betting on his talent long term. 2024 Projection: 44/17/51/.222/.291/.434/9 Prime Projection: 74/26/82/.244/.320/.482/12

6) Drew Thorpe NYY, RHP, 23.6 – Who needs a huge fastball anyway? Thorpe’s double plus changeup and above average slider was more than enough to obliterate minor leaguers. He put up a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4%/7.7% K%/BB% in 109 IP at High-A, and then he went to Double-A and was even better with a 1.48 ERA and 40%/4.5% K%/BB% in 30.1 IP. He’s a big boy at 6’4”, 225 pounds and his command is very good too. Plus changeup guys can sometimes get exposed against MLB hitters, and the aforementioned fastball only sits low to mid 90’s, which is why I’m hesitant to truly put top of the rotation upside on him, but this is a high floor starter with legit upside who should be up in the bigs very quickly into 2024. 2024 Projection: 5/4.13/1.28/92 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 13/3.64/1.18/190 in 175 IP

7) John Cruz NYY, OF, 18.7 – If Cruz were eligible for the 2023 MLB Draft, his hype would be through the roof. He has the scout’s dream build at a projectable 6’3”, 171 pounds, and it comes with a quick and powerful lefty swing. It resulted in him ripping up stateside rookie ball as a 17 year old, slashing .294/.376/.531 with 10 homers, 9 steals, and a 21.8%/10.9% K%/BB% in 48 games. Power, speed, build, production, age to level … this is everything you look for in a shooting star prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 78/27/87/.251/.324/.473/12

8) George Lombard NYY, SS, 18.10 – Selected 26th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lombard has baseball bloodlines with his father playing 6 years in the big leagues, and like most plus bloodlines kids, his game is mature beyond his years. He stepped right into pro ball and put up a 202 wRC+ with a 2/5 K/BB in 4 games at rookie ball, and then he closed the year out at Single-A with a 114 wRC+ and 10/8 K/BB in 9 games. He combines the high baseball IQ with plus athleticism at 6’3”, 190 pounds, and has the potential for an at least above average power/speed combo at peak. This is a really nice blend of safety and upside. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/22/77/.268/.341/.450/16

9) Chase Hampton NYY, RHP, 22.8 – Hampton wasn’t quite able to keep up the breakout at Double-A with his ERA jumping from 2.68 at High-A to 4.37 at Double-A, and his K% dropping from 40.5% to 27.4%, but that shouldn’t put a damper on his excellent season, because he has the big stuff to get excited about. He’s 6’2, 200 pounds with mid 90’s heat and a diverse set of secondaries (slider, curve, cutter, change). The command is solid. With the production taking a step back against more advanced competition, I wouldn’t put top of the rotation upside on him, but I certainly think he can be an impact mid-rotation fantasy starter at peak. 2024 Projection: 4/4.28/1.33/86 in 90 IP Prime Projection: 12/3.78/1.23/177 in 170 IP

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 20.3 – Delgado backed up his 2022 breakout in the DSL with all of his skills transferring stateside in 2023, slashing .293/.414/.485 with 8 homers, 36 steals, and a 13%/15.1% K%/BB% in 49 games. Proving it stateside is one box checked off, but he was still one year older than optimal for the level, and he is still a small guy at only 5’7”. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he ended up a utility infielder, but he’s a legitimately electric player who I think can overcome his small stature. If he can keep up the production at a more age appropriate level, he will be an easy Top 100 prospect. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 83/16/62/.273/.343/.428/26

Just Missed

11) Enmanuel Tejeda NYY, SS/2B/3B, 19.3

12) Brando Mayea NYY, OF, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 24.10

14) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 23.11

15) Henry Lalane NYY, LHP, 19.10

16) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 24.5

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be a pain in the ass to own prospects from big market teams because of how easily those teams can go out and sign proven talent, which in turn blocks our favorite prospects, but the Yankees are too far deep into the youth movement to all of a sudden majorly change course this off-season. They also don’t have a ton of money coming off the books, making it even less likely that their top prospects get blocked. The combination of talent, proximity, opportunity and ballpark (Yankee Stadium has the perfect combo for fantasy of juicing up homers while being a fairly neutral park overall) provides so many juicy targets to go after this off-season for dynasty.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

Posted on November 14, 2022November 22, 2022 by Michael Halpern

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona Diamondbacks—Baltimore Orioles (free)—Boston Red Sox (free)—Chicago White Sox—Colorado Rockies—Kansas City Royals—Miami Marlins—Milwaukee Brewers—Minnesota Twins—New York Mets (free)—San Francisco Giants—Seattle Mariners (free)—Texas Rangers—Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉 2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)