Emmanuel Valdez – Imaginary Brick Wall

I’m pumped to be kicking off my off-season 2023 Dynasty Baseball content with Dynasty Team Reports. Just like during the season, I’ll be releasing a free post on most Monday’s throughout the off-season. Here is the Boston Red Sox 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 SEPTEMBER 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-TOP 10 TRADE NEGOTIATION TACTICS
-2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL PLAYER SUPERLATIVES/AWARDS
-UPCOMING CONTENT: Dynasty Team Reports, Positional Dynasty Rankings, strategy articles, target articles, and early access to the Top 100 FYPD Rankings, Top 500 Prospects Rankings, and Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings hot off the presses as I put them together (released for free on IBW at some point in March)

*Ages are as of Opening Day 2023
**Prime Projections represent a relatively good outcome scenario that is meant to shine more light on the type of numbers I think a prospect projects for. It is not necessarily a most likely outcome.

Starting Pitchers

Brayan Bello BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Bello is one of my top pitching targets for 2023. He checks a whole hell of a lot of boxes. He throws gas (96.3 MPH sinker), his changeup is a filthy out pitch (44.2% whiff% and .214 xSLG against), he keeps the ball on the ground (5.3 degree launch), and he induces weak contact (5.4% barrel%). His control isn’t great, but it isn’t really a major area of concern. Improving his slider would take him to another level, but his slider isn’t all that bad as is with an above average .288 xwOBA against. His 4.71 ERA (3.80 xERA) in 57.1 IP, and his relative lack of hype as a prospect is going to have him going for an extremely reasonable price this off-season. I’m all in on Bello. I would be all over him no matter where your team is in the contention cycle. 2023 Projection: 10/3.79/1.27/180 in 172 IP Prime Projection: 14/3.43/1.18/214 in 190 IP

Chris Sale BOS, LHP, 34.0 – This video of Chris Sale going full meltdown mode and destroying the Triple-A locker room while on a rehab assignment is the perfect representation of his 2022 season. He pitched only 5.2 innings all year as he battled a stress fracture in his ribs early on, and then a broken pinky almost immediately after returning from the rib injury, and then finally a broken wrist from a bike accident finished off his season. None of the injuries seem to be long term concerns, and his fastball did average 94.9 MPH in those 5.2 innings, which is actually nice to see even if it is a very small sample. He has the reputation as a strikeout machine, but he’s also put up near elite walk rates since 2012 which gives him a safe floor even if the strikeouts take a step back. If you’re a competing team who doesn’t have the assets to go after an established ace this off-season, Sale is a good “Plan B” option. 2023 Projection: 10/3.59/1.17/181 in 150 IP

Hitters

Xander Bogaerts BOS, SS, 30.6 – Bogaerts started his career as a boring fantasy player, and now it looks like the back 9 of his career will end up pretty similar. He’s a line drive hitter with above average contact rates and average exit velocities. He’ll chip in with some steals, but he’s never been a huge base stealer, and I don’t think the new rules (bigger bases and max of 2 pick off attempts) are going to favor an aging player like Bogaerts who likes to pick his spots. In fact, it might actually hurt his value because I think younger, more reckless base runners will ultimately get the biggest bump. His name value is still very strong, likely bumping up his value much higher than players who can put up similar numbers and go much later. He can also opt out of his contract this off-season, and if he leaves Boston’s hitter haven, it will very likely hurt his value. He’s a sell for me. 2023 Projection: 88/20/76/.290/.364/.469/13

Trevor Story BOS, 2B, 30.5 – Just when we started to relax and let our hair down when it came to Colorado hitters leaving Coors, Story comes along and smacks us right back to reality. His K% spiked 7.4 percentage points to 30.8% and it led to a career worst .238 BA (.221 xBA). We knew the batting average was coming down, but this was close to a worst case scenario on how far down. The power/speed combo was still good with 16 homers and 13 steals in 94 games battling through a few injuries, so he’s still an exciting fantasy player, but you now have to factor in that it could come with a batting average that tanks you in that category. 2023 Projection: 77/26/89/.241/.316/.480/19

Bullpen

Garrett Whitlock BOS, RHP, 26.10 – Whitlock once again heads into the off-season in role purgatory. He’ll be brought to camp prepared to be a starter, but he can easily end up back in the bullpen. Along with role uncertainty, he also underwent arthroscopic hip surgery in late September, and while he’s expected to be ready go for the start of the season, it adds another layer of unknowns. What isn’t unknown, is that Whitlock is a damn good pitcher as he backed up the 2021 breakout with another very good year in 2022. He put up a 3.17 xERA (3.45 ERA) with a 29.4% whiff% and 4.8% BB%. In leagues with a holds category, there could be a buying opportunity on Whitlock this off-season, but in a 5×5 saves league, there are too many unknowns for me to really target him. 2023 Projection: 6/3.35/1.11/115/15 saves in 105 IP

Boston Red Sox Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Prospects

1) Triston Casas BOS, 1B, 23.3 – Casas is an OBP machine. He has a career .374 OBP in 284 minor league games and then he put up a .358 OBP with a 20% BB% in his 95 PA MLB debut. In an OBP league, he has a chance to be a real difference maker. It’s not so cut and dry in a 5×5 BA league. He’s never hit for high BA’s in the minors (career .269 BA) and he hit .197 (.193 xBA) in the majors. He’s a huge man with huge raw power, but he’s never really put up monster home run totals (11 homers in 72 Triple-A games). He doesn’t sell out for power. Boston’s hitter’s park should juice up all of his numbers, and I like Casas a lot regardless of league type, but I might curb your enthusiasm a little bit in a 5×5 BA. 2023 Projection: 78/24/81/.249/.334/.462/1 Prime Projection: 89/29/94/.263/.368/.510/2

2) Marcelo Mayer BOS, SS, 20.4 – One look at Mayer’s controlled and explosive lefty swing really says it all. He used that swing to dominate Single-A in every facet of the game (150 wRC+ in 66 games), and then mostly did the same to close out the season at High-A (127 wRC+ in 25 games). His 25.2% K% is maybe slightly higher than you would like to see, but he mitigated that with a 16% BB%, and he was also a perfect 17 for 17 on the bases. He’s not a burner, but with the new stolen bases rules coming to the majors, maybe he’ll be able to nab more than we are expecting. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 94/25/87/.271/.363/.484/10

3) Ceddanne Rafaela BOS, OF, 22.0 – Rafaela is a small (5’8”), electric player who seems to be taking a page out of another small electric player’s playbook, Mookie Betts. Both of their swings start upright before bending into hitting position and exploding on the baseball. Boston obviously has a plan on developing these smaller ballplayers. Rafaela isn’t as good as Betts, but he had an eye opening season, slashing .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers, 28 steals, and a 113/26 K/BB split between High-A (156 wRC+ in 45 games) and Double-A (119 wRC+ in 71 games). He’s a plus defensive centerfielder which should help keep him on the field and mitigates the risk of his low walk rate (5% BB%). Take a star away in OBP leagues, but he could be a 5×5 BA beast in the mold of Cedric Mullins. 2023 Projection: 7/1/4/.245/.293/.390/2 Prime Projection: 84/17/68/.261/.314/.423/22

4) Miguel Bleis BOS, OF, 19.1 – Bleis is a scout’s dream. He’s a long and lean 6’3”, 170 pounds with a quick and athletic swing. The high priced international signing played well in 2021 in the DSL, but he really exploded this year at stateside rookie ball, slashing .301/.353/.543 with 5 homers, 18 steals, and a 26.9%/6.9% K%/BB% in 40 games. He’s not a finished product as evidenced by his plate approach numbers, but if you’re looking for the type who could be an elite prospect very quickly into 2023, Bleis is your guy. ETA: 2025/26 Prime Projection: 75/22/80/.252/.317/465/14

5) Blaze Jordan BOS, 3B/1B, 20.4 – Blaze clearly came into 2022 with a plan to not just be an all or nothing slugger, and he accomplished that plan with a 16.1%/8.9% K%/BB% in 95 games at Single-A. It came with a low FB% and only 8 homers, but he’s been known for his prodigious power for years now so it’s more important for his development to establish his hit tool. He then closed out the season at High-A where he put up a 128 wRC+ with 4 homers in 25 games. The bat is legit. The issue is on the other side of the ball as Blaze played a lot of 1B this year. He’s not a lock to move off 3B, but it’s clearly a possibility, and that puts all of the pressure on his bat to hit it’s ceiling. ETA: 2024/25 Prime Projection: 77/27/86/.260/.324/.486/3

6) Nick Yorke BOS, 2B, 21.0 – Yorke had a worst case scenario 2022. He hit .231 with 11 homers, 8 steals, and a 25.2% K% in 80 games at High-A. He battled through injuries which definitely contributed to how bad it was, but the power/speed combo isn’t very big, which puts a lot of pressure on his hit tool. He struck out 22.9% of the time at High-A last year too. He’s off to a hot start in the AFL (.368 BA with a 3/5 K/BB in 5 games), and I definitely think he will have a much better 2023, but he lacks high end upside which prevents me from going any higher on him than this. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 83/18/70/.276/.338/.435/10

7) Bryan Mata BOS, RHP, 23.11 – Mata returned from Tommy John surgery in June and quickly established the nasty stuff is fully back with him regularly sitting in the upper 90’s with his 4-seamer. He combines that with a diverse pitch mix that features a potentially plus slider, a nasty 2 seamer, a curve, and a change. He touched every level of the minors this year other than rookie ball and racked up K’s at every level with 105 strikeouts in 83 IP which led to a 2.49 ERA. The problem is that he has major control issues, putting up a 14.7% BB% in 23.1 IP at Triple-A. It’s a high risk, high reward profile with major bullpen risk, but with Boston’s unsettled bullpen, he could end up a dominant closer in short order. 2023 Projection: 3/4.10/1.34/71/4 saves in 65 IP Prime Projection: 5/3.28/1.18/85/28 saves in 70 IP

8) Emmanuel Valdez BOS, 2B/3B, 24.3 – Valdez is not a big man at 5’9”, 191 pounds, but he puts up big man power numbers with 26 homers in 91 games split between High-A and Double-A in 2021, which he followed up with 28 homers in 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s not a big base stealer, his hit tool is solid but not standout, and he’s not great on defense, so a lot is riding on that power from a small frame. 2023 Projection: 54/13/51/.243/.319/.427/4 Prime Projection: 76/22/74/.253/.335/.452/7

9) Matthew Lugo BOS, 3B/SS, 21.11 – Lugo’s power exploded in 2022, going from 4 homers in 105 games at Single-A in 2021 to 18 homers in 114 games at High-A in 2022. He did so without his hit tool or speed taking a step back, maintaining a strong .288 BA and 19.5% K% along with 20 steals. He might not have a standout tool, but he’s shaping up to be a solid across the board contributor. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/78/.265/.330/.445/11

10) Brandon Walter BOS, LHP, 26.7 – Walter was shutdown in early June with a neck strain. If not for the injury, he very likely would have ended up higher on the list. He obliterated Double-A with a 2.88 ERA and 34.7%/1.5% K%/BB% in 57.2 IP. He got roughed up a bit in his 2 start Triple-A cup of coffee with a 8.22 ERA and 7/4 K/BB in 7.2 IP before going down with the injury, so he was never given the opportunity to right the ship there. He’s old for a prospect, but you can’t fake good stuff, and Walter’s stuff is on point. He uses a funky, herky jerky lefty delivery to fire a low to mid 90’s fastball, plus slider, and above average changeup. Toss in plus control and it adds up to a relatively safe profile with some upside evidenced by the high K rate. #4 starter seems like a fair, relatively good outcome scenario. 2023 Projection: 3/4.36/1.29/50 in 50 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.95/1.24/166 in 160 IP

Just Missed

11) Niko Kavadas BOS, 1B, 24.5 – The lefty Kavadas wrecked the lower level of the minors with 24 homers in 96 games split between Single-A and High-A, but his swing and miss issues caught up with him when he got to Double-A, putting up a 40% K% with only 2 homers in 24 games. For an older player, that isn’t a great sign. He’s also a 1B only guy, which causes another road block to playing time. He’s a walk machine and the power is legit, so I could see him chiseling out some kind of platoon role on the MLB level a la Dan Vogelbach. 2023 Projection: 9/3/12/.219/.305/.410/0 Prime Projection: 48/18/57/.232/.328/.430/1

12) Alex Binelas BOS, 3B/1B, 22.10 – The lefty Binelas wants to hit the ball hard. Check out this excellent interview by David Laurila over on Fangraphs about how much emphasis he puts on exit velocity. It certainly shows as Binelas jacked 25 homers in 113 games split between High-A and Double-A. Like Kavadas, the problem is that his hit tool fell apart when he got to Double-A with a .166 BA and 32.4% K% in 55 games, and he also doesn’t have much defensive value. Part time power bat might be the most likely outcome. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 43/16/51/.238/.323/.430/2

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

Restricting trades after the season ends for any period of time doesn’t make sense to me. A large portion of the fun of playing in a dynasty league is that it is a year round thing. I love taking stock of my team directly after the season ends, thinking about my keepers and what my lineup will look like next year, seeing the holes I need to fill and the areas I’m weak in. If your team wasn’t in competition, you might not have had that much to do since the trade deadline passed in August, and you’re ripping and raring to go when the trade ban is lifted. Waiting months before I can start wheeling and dealing just seems unnecessary. Please lift that trade embargo, Mr. Commissioner. No taxation without representation. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Ask not what your country can do … my bad, got carried away there 🙂

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)