Monday Morning Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/4/24)

I’ll be running down everything that caught my eye in the Dynasty Baseball world on most Mondays throughout the season here on the Brick Wall. The rest of the week you can catch my Rundowns on the Patreon. Here is the Monday Morning Spring Dynasty Baseball Rundown (3/4/24):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (these get released on IBW in very late March, right before the season starts)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

Zack Littell TBR, RHP, 28.6 – You have to be a damn fool to doubt Tampa in any way, and mama didn’t raise no fool. With Shane Baz announcing he is on a delayed schedule until “early to mid-season,” Littell looks locked into a rotation spot, and he’s now someone I’m going after everywhere. He went against essentially Minnesota’s real lineup yesterday and went 3 IP with 4 hits, 0 ER, and a 1/1 K/BB. He now has a 0.00 ERA with a 4/1 K/BB in 5 IP on the spring. The velocity was down a tick, but assuming he’s just easing into things, his 94+ MPH fastball in 2023 was actually already very good with with a strong .290 xwOBA and 21.8% whiff%. His control entered elite territory with a 3.2% BB%, and while his secondaries aren’t great, he added a sweeper to the arsenal in the 2nd half which was immediately his best secondary with a .247 xwOBA and 30% whiff%. He’s also been working on the now very popular splitter that he’s been incorporating into him arsenal more and more over the past couple years. If he really takes off with any of his secondaries, he’s going to be a major issue, and even if he doesn’t, double plus control of a good fastball will play. I mean, how many times does Tampa have to pull a rabbit of their hat for us to even stop questioning it even a little? Littell is currently going 344th overall in the NFBC and is going to be an afterthought in so many dynasty leagues. Easiest call ever is to grab this guy from the bargain bin in all league sizes.

Josue De Paula LAD, OF, 18.10 – I ranked Josue De Paula 6th overall in my Predicting the Top 50 2025 Prospects Rankings last week, writing, “Seeing Josue De Paula’s name is giving me visions of Scarface, directed by Brian De Palma, and all I can hear is “Say hello to my little friend.” That is what De Paula is going to be saying to minor league pitching as his power explodes in a major way. And combined with his elite approach, it’s going to be shades of Juan Soto all over again.” … And then right on cue he jacked out an opposite field homer off a sidearm lefty on a pitch that was in on his hands. One spring at bat, one homer. I wasn’t lying when I said we are about to see an explosion.

Erick Fedde CHW, RHP, 31.1 – We got our first look at Fedde and his reworked secondaries coming over from winning MVP in Korea, and if making Mike Trout look foolish on a slider is impressive to you, which it should be, I would say the secondaries looked impressive. He went 2 IP with 4 hits, 1 ER, and a 3/1 K/BB vs. LA’s real lineup, so he didn’t dominate, but seeing the swing and miss was the most important part after putting up a 16.4% K% in 2022. I’m not ready to reach for him, but I’ll still happily try to nab him slightly before the last couple rounds. If someone beats me to the punch, so be it.

Garrett Crochet CHW, LHP, 23.9 – Crochet might be the most exciting development out of Sox camp so far, and he pitched another crisp outing, going 2 IP with 0 hits, 0 ER, and a 3/0 K/BB. Here is he getting Trout looking for a called strike 3. Every Sox pitcher was eating off Trout yesterday. Crochet is rocking a windup that the Rockettes would be proud of, which shows off the athleticism, and he’s already hit 100 MPH this spring. He finally looks fully healthy coming off Tommy John surgery, and if Chicago was serious about using him the rotation, I don’t see how he’s not winning one of those jobs right now. He might be entering major target territory.

Juan Soto NYY, OF, 25.6 – 2 for 3 with a homer that showed off both his elite bat control and elite power. He now has a 2.616 OPS with 3 homers in 11 PA. The career year he was supposed to have in the shortened 2020 season, the one where he had the highest xwOBA in Statcast history (.475 xwOBA), is the one the baseball gods owe him over a full season in his contract year. He ranks 7th overall on my Top 1,000 Dynasty Rankings (patreon), and 3rd overall on my Top 450 OBP Dynasty Rankings (patreon).

DL Hall MIL, LHP, 25.6 – 2 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 1/1 K/BB vs. some of Arizona’s real lineup. The fastball sat 95.4 MPH with a 29% whiff%, and he threw all 3 secondaries for called strikes. He then did a post game interview with a massive ball of chew in his mouth, which is exactly what a ballplayer should look like. He talked about pounding the zone and being economical with his pitches, which is exactly what he needs to do, because his nasty stuff will do the rest. He’s one of my favorite pitcher targets headed into 2024, and has been from before he even got traded.

Matt Manning DET, RHP, 26.2/Casey Mize DET, RHP, 26.11 – Manning went 3 IP, with 1 hit, 1 ER, and 4/0 K/BB, and Mize went 2 IP with 1 hit, 0 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB vs. half of the Yanks real lineup (including Judge and Soto). Manning and Mize both got a much needed infusion of velocity this spring with their fastballs up 2 MPH to 95.4 MPH. It’s actually eerie how identical that is. There must be something in the water out there in Detroit. It makes me more likely to take a flier on them, but they still aren’t in target territory, because beyond the fastball, their biggest issue is lack of a standout secondary, and I’m not sure you can claim either has found that yet even with the added velocity. Mize didn’t record a single whiff on a secondary and Manning put up a 33% on the slider which is solid, but nothing to write home about. Their values are on the way up, but I would still have some caution.

Jung Hoo Lee SFG, OF, 25.7 – It’s becoming quite clear that all of the skills are transferring over stateside. Lee went 1 for 2 with a steal and 0/1 K/BB, and is now slashing .455/.500/.818 with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 8.3%/8.3% K%/BB% in 12 PA. The high GB% is also transferring with a 60% GB%. He’s exactly who we thought he was. A .300/15/15 season is definitely within reach, and if he runs more than we think, that is where his fantasy upside will come from.

Colton Cowser BAL, OF, 24.0 – Cowser showed off some of that lift and pull with a 32 degree launch, 98 MPH homer off a Martin Perez 88.6 MPH fastball. Granted, I probably could turn around an 88 MPH fastball too (by probably, I mean 100% not), but especially with Camden Yard’s dimensions, he’s going to have to pull and lift the ball a lot more than he’s done in the minors if he wants to get to all of his power. This was his 3rd homer in 16 PA, and the first one that was pulled. Cowser continues to seem to be the odd man out, but he’s going to make it as tough as possible on Baltimore to make a decision, which is all you can ask of him.

Chris Sale ATL, LHP, 35.0 – 2.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 5/2 K/BB vs. the Phillies scrubs+Bohm. I mean just look at this utter filth from that arm angle. Is he kidding me? Safe to say the stuff is as good as ever. He had some velocity fluctuations last year, so I don’t think his freshness in spring means he can keep it up all season, but better to see him healthy and throwing filth than to be sitting low 90’s. Your guess is as good as mine as to if he can stay 100% healthy, but if he does, he’s going to rack up strikeouts no problem.

Kutter Crawford BOS, RHP, 28.0 – 3 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4/0 K/BB vs. Toronto’s Quad-A+Kirk lineup. Here he is blowing the fastball by Davis Schneider. And I don’t say “blowing by” lightly. That is the textbook definition. Crawford was one of my favorite sleepers since I wrote the Boston Red Sox Team Report back in early December, but he’s had too much shine on his name recently, and you can’t really call him a sleeper anymore. I hope you were able to trade for him when I was hyping him early. He’s damn good, and everyone realizes it now.

Davis Schneider TOR, 2B, 25.2 – Kutter isn’t the only one blowing pitches by Schneider, as he went 1 for 3 with 2 K’s and now has a 50% K% in 14 PA. The 37.3% whiff% and 30.5% K% were the two majors reasons I preached caution on Schneider this off-season, and at the very least, this spring showing is not assuaging my concerns. I’m not against taking him if the price is right, I actually took him in the 3rd round of my 18 team off-season prospect draft because I need the 2B depth, but make sure the price is right.

Grayson Rodriguez BAL, RHP, 24.5 – 2 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 2/2 K/BB vs. about half of Pitt’s real lineup. Grayson wasn’t that great in his first outing either. It’s clear he’s far from mid-season form with the fastball down 1.5 MPH to 95.9 MPH and the slider down 2.6 MPH to 79.7 MPH. He’s also working on a new 2-seamer/sinker that he is trying to mix in. You obviously shouldn’t put much stock in this early spring performance, but it’s worth noting he wasn’t good in the first half of 2023 and didn’t find his rhythm until the 2nd half. If he does get off to a slow start this season, remember not to panic. He’ll find his stride eventually.

Rhett Lowder CIN, RHP, 22.1 – 2 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 0/1 K/BB vs. most of KC’s real lineup. We know Lowder is a safe college arm, but how much upside he’s going to have against MLB hitters is the question, and this outing definitely didn’t highlight that upside. He’s obviously just getting his feet wet, so it doesn’t mean much, but at the same time this is the first time we’re seeing him against that advanced competition, so I think it’s worth mentioning.

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 29.4 – 4 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 3/1 K/BB vs. Detroit’s mostly backups lineup. Cortes’ 2023 season ended because of a shoulder injury, so the most important thing is to see him healthy, and he looks healthy. The fastball sat 92.4 MPH, up 0.8 MPH from last year, and he notched a 31% whiff% overall. The injury still adds future injury risk, but he looks ready to go for 2024.

Alejandro Kirk TOR, C, 24.9 – Kirk badly needs to find his power again after his EV tanked to 87.6 MPH in 2023, and his homer yesterday sure seems to indicate he may have found it. He crushed a bomb over the replica monster for his 2nd in 11 PA. Toronto’s lackluster off-season is good news for Kirk and Jansen, because they should each be able to find enough at bats to be in the startable catcher range for most leagues.

Gabriel Moreno ARI, C, 24.1 – Moreno’s playoff homer fest has continued into spring with him launching a 38 degree, 400 foot homer off Freddy Peralta for his first of spring. He still has a 66.7% GB% in 12 PA, and his 51.2% GB% was high in the playoffs too, so I don’t think the homer explosion is showing a change in approach. He’s going to be a really really good hitter, but I don’t think he’s going to hit for enough homer power to be an elite fantasy catcher.

Jeferson Quero MIL, C, 21.6 – Quero smashed his first spring homer on a 100.2 MPH shot he had to go down to get, showing off the bat control and power. I would be much higher on Quero if he wasn’t completely blocked, but he’s completely blocked with William Contreras in town, and I don’t think Milwaukee has any intention to trade him.

Gavin Stone LAD, RHP, 25.6 – 3 IP, 2 hit, 0 ER, 1/0 K/BB vs. a depleted Rockies lineup. My money is on Sheehan to take that final starter spot, and my money is on Sheehan long term as well to be the better pitcher, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think Stone will bounce back from a rough 2023. The changeup is legit, he fired off a few crisp breaking balls in this outing, and I trust the Dodgers to improve his fastball command. It’s a jampacked rotation with more talent on the way, so Stone isn’t guaranteed anything, but I do think he can be a good MLB starter. Just not one I’m targeting quite yet.

Jordan Hicks SFG, RHP, 27.7 – The Jordan Hicks experiment is not going smoothly in the early going. He had his 2nd rough outing, going 2.2 IP with 5 hits, 2 ER, and a 2/2 K/BB in 2.2 IP. He already talked about how he isn’t going to sit anywhere close to 100 MPH like he did out of the bullpen, which he obviously doesn’t need to to still have nasty stuff, but quite frankly, he wasn’t even all that dominant out of the bullpen with that level of stuff. He had a 1.36 WHIP last year. As a starter with less stuff, what kind of numbers do you think we will be looking at? I have a sneaking suspicion this might be a short lived experiment with Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black knocking on the door, along with the Blake Snell rumors intensifying and Ray and Cobb coming off the IL at some point. As a high upside flier of course I get it, but I wouldn’t reach for him.

Caden Dana LAA, RHP, 20.4 – The 20 year old Dana is already in major league camp, which tells you how much LA loves this kid, or it tells you how barren their farm system is, but either way, he’s exciting. He handled his business against a rough (not in a good way) Chicago lineup, going 2 IP with 1 hit, 1 ER, and a 2/1 K/BB. He has a legit plus fastball/slider combo that is already doing damage against MLB vets. He’s set to fly up rankings in 2024.

Kevin Alcantara CHC, OF, 21.8 – The forgotten Unicorn smoothly and easily demolished a ball out of the deep center for his first spring homer. Alcantara gets some criticism for his swing getting out of sync, but that looked pretty damn synced up to me there. He’s also struck out 3 times in 8 PA and had a 33.3% K% in 5 games in his first taste of Double-A, so watching that K% will be super important.

Jonny Farmelo SEA, OF, 19.7 – Farmelo didn’t debut in 2023, so he wasn’t able to get the hype going like some of his other high school brethren, but he’s trying to make up for lost time. He showed off the legs yesterday ripping a ball down the line that he turned into a stand up triple. He’s now 2 for 4 with 2 K’s. That kind of speed from a 6’2”, 205 pound frame is so easy to dream on.

Cade Marlowe SEA, OF, 26.9 – I named Marlowe an “if he had playing time” target, and he showed why going deep off Yu Darvish for his first spring homer. But he still doesn’t have a playing time, which can make it hard to roster a guy like this. At the very least put him on your watch list and jump on him when he does get his shot, because he showed encouraging skills in his MLB debut in 2023. He was a plus defensive player, with plus speed (28.9 ft/sec sprint), an above average barrel% (7.3%), a 112 wRC+, a 12% BB%, and a not horrible 29.4% whiff% (despite a 33% K%). If he does work his way into playing time, he has a very intriguing fantasy profile, especially in OBP leagues.

Kyle Stowers BAL, OF, 26.3 – If Cowser can’t find a job, I don’t know how Stowers is going to be able to do it. I’m doing my darndest to not get sucked back into Stowers, but it’s hard not to when I still firmly believe he can be an MLB masher if given the chance. He cracked a 101.8 MPH single today and now has a 1.308 OPS with 3 homers in 16 PA on the spring. He crushed 17 homers with a 93.8 MPH EV in just 68 games at Triple-A in 2023. I just can’t trust Baltimore to ever give him a chance if history is any indication, and they have more highly touted guys than him blocked.

Estiven Florial CLE, OF, 26.5 – I like Florial as a late round dart throw as much as the next guy, but there is a reason the Yanks gave him away for peanuts. He went 0 for 3 with 3 K’s yesterday and is now hitting .077 with a 50% K% in 16 PA. The Yanks seemed certain the hit tool wasn’t going to play, and so far, it’s not playing.

Nolan Schanuel LAA, 1B, 22.1 – This is your regularly scheduled Nolan Schanuel power check … 1 for 3 with a single. He’s now 6 for 19 with 6 singles, which is good for a .316 BA and .316 SLG. New year, same guy …

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL SEASON, INCLUDING:
-TOP 1,000 2024 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS (these get released on IBW in very late March, right before the season starts)
-TOP 500 2024 PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 132 2024 FYPD RANKINGS (+Target & Strategy Guide)
-POSITION BY POSTION TARGET ARTICLES
-OBP TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-6+CATS/PTS/OPS “UNIVERSAL TOP 450 DYNASTY RANKS
-PREDICTING THE TOP 50 2025 PROSPECT RANKS
-TOP 11+ 2025 FYPD RANKINGS
-HALP’S DYNASTY BASEBALL PODCAST
-ALL-IN-ONE RANKINGS SPREADSHEET

By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)

New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Team Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk)

Along with a Top 10 Dynasty Baseball Prospects Ranking, I wanted to highlight some interesting MLB guys for every team and talk some strategy to give a more complete Dynasty Team Report. Like during the regular season, I’m still going to be posting a few articles a month for free on my website. This is one of those articles. Here is the New York Yankees 2023 Dynasty Baseball Report (Top 10 Prospects/Interesting MLB guys/Strategy Talk):

CLICK HERE TO JOIN MY PATREON FOR TONS OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT ALL OFF-SEASON, INCLUDING:
-A TOP 104 SNEAK PEEK OF THE 2023 TOP 1,000 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS
-2023 DEEP POSITIONAL DYNASTY RANKS: TOP 65 CATCHERS
-TOP 13 EARLY OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TARGETS
-TOP 8 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY SELLS
-TOP 360 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY PROSPECTS RANKINGS
-TOP 456 END OF SEASON 2022 DYNASTY BASEBALL RANKINGS

Previous Team Reports on Patreon
Arizona DiamondbacksBaltimore Orioles (free)Boston Red Sox (free)Chicago White SoxColorado RockiesKansas City RoyalsMiami MarlinsMilwaukee BrewersMinnesota TwinsNew York Mets (free)San Francisco GiantsSeattle Mariners (free)Texas RangersWashington Nationals

Starting Pitchers

Nestor Cortes NYY, LHP, 28.4 – Cortes might have been my biggest miss on somebody I wasn’t in on and quite clearly should have been. Andrew McCutchen said it best on Twitter, “Nestor Cortes’ fastball plays up. Meaning his 91-94 actually feels like 97. Mix that with him messing with a hitters timing, throwing from diff arm angles, and locating well, he can be very difficult to hit.” I struggled to buy into the low 90’s velocity with a below average whiff%, but he not only proved the profile will play, he also made incremental improvements. The fastball ticked up 1.1 MPH to 91.8 MPH, his 6.2% BB% is a career best and his 24.4% whiff% is now nearly average. It led to a stunning pitching line of 2.44/0.92/163/38 in 158.1 IP. The dead ball also helped, as many big strikeout pitchers started to pitch more like Cortes by pitching to contact and bringing both their K and BB rates down. I’m not making the same mistake I did last year, I’m in on Cortes. 2023 Projection: 13/3.39/1.06/175 in 170 IP

Luis Severino NYY, RHP, 29.1 – Cortes was a miss, but Severino was a definite hit. I love taking the Tommy John discount on established pitchers, and Severino was back to pitching to near elite levels with a pitching line of 3.18/1.00/112/30 in 102 IP. He missed over 2 months with a lat strain, but he looked no worse for the wear when he returned in September. He pumped the fastball in at 96.3 MPH and it put up a career best .299 xwOBA. All 3 of his secondaries were on point with his slider putting up a 41.6% whiff%, his changeup putting up a .259 xwOBA, and he went to his cutter more than ever with a 7.3% usage and 40.6% whiff%. Even with the excellent season, it still seems like he isn’t getting the respect he deserves and remains a target for me. 2023 Projection: 11/3.45/1.10/170 in 155 IP

Frankie Montas NYY, RHP, 30.0 – Montes went from a no pressure situation in the the spacious confines of Oakland, to a high stress situation with the short porch in New York, and it was unsurprisingly not a smooth transition. He had a 3.18 ERA in 104.2 IP with Oakland and a 6.35 ERA in 39.2 IP with New York. Doing it while he just had a shoulder issue he was returning from probably didn’t help things either, and the shoulder issue popped up again at the end of the season. All of this to say I think Montas will be a lot better in year 2 with a full off-season to heal and get comfortable with his new pitching environment. He throws a 5 pitch mix led by a 96.1 MPH fastball and a splitter which is excellent even in a down year with a .223 xwOBA. He has plus control (7.1% BB%) and plus whiff rates (27.6% whiff%). His disaster stint with New York could have him going for a sweetheart price this off-season, and if you’re like me in not wanting to pay up huge for the top aces, Montas will be right in my wheelhouse. 2023 Projection: 11/3.60/1.21/181 in 170 IP

Hitters

Aaron Judge FA, OF, 30.11 – Judge hit only 62 homers this year, not even coming close to the home run record of 73. His cute little 207 wRC+ was bested by Barry Bonds 5 times. He also stole only 16 bases, falling short of the vaunted 20/20 season. It was just a disappointment all around, and as a Yankees fan, it’s unacceptable. Let him walk 😉  2023 Projection: 111/43/109/.286/.398/.562/11

Oswaldo Cabrera NYY, 2B/SS/OF, 24.1 – Cabrera had a very strong MLB Debut with a 111 wRC+, 6 homers, and 3 steals in 44 games, but I’m still staying hesitant. He outperformed his underlying numbers with a .322 wOBA vs. .287 xwOBA, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough with a 86.8 MPH EV, he’s not that fast with a 54.9% percentile sprint speed rank, and he has below average swing and miss rates (25.7% K% and 26.9% whiff%). He also went 2 for 28 in the playoffs. Josh Rojas isn’t the worst comp, but Cabrera hits the ball in the air a lot more which gives him higher power upside and lower BA downside. He seems to be setting up for a super utility role, especially for a team like the Yankees who can open the pocketbook to fill holes. 2023 Projection: 51/14/47/.242/.309/.418/10

Bullpen

Clay Holmes NYY, Closer, 30.0 – Aroldis Chapman’s total meltdown opened the door up for Holmes, and his 97.1 MPH bowling bowl sinker did the rest. He threw it 80.1% of the time and it was the tied for the 8th most valuable sinker in the game with a negative 10 run value. His slider is a killer pitch too with a 42.9% whiff% and .174 xwOBA. It led to a pitching line of 2.54/1.02/65/20 in 63.2 IP. Aroldis Chapman is a free agent now and it seems Holmes is the heavy favorite to open the season as the closer, but I don’t think he is locked in the role if the Yanks acquire a more established closer. Kenley Jansen is a name that sticks out from the free agent pool. I wouldn’t worry too much that he will lose the role, but I would keep it in the back your mind when building your team. 2023 Projection: 4/3.28/1.08/69/30 saves in 65 IP

Top 10 New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Prospects.

1) Anthony Volpe NYY, SS, 21.11 – Volpe got off to a rough start at Double-A with a .647 OPS and 24% K% in his first 37 games, but he came alive after that, slashing .286/.374/.536 with 13 homers, 26 steals, and a 14.4%/10.7% K%/BB% in 72 games. He does it all with a mature plate approach, plus game power, and plus stolen base ability. Despite the 17.7% K% at Double-A on the season, he still hit only .251 because of an extreme 56.9% flyball percentage. If the balls stay dead, it could be an issue because he isn’t a huge raw power guy at 5’11”, 180 pounds. He also struggled when he got the call to Triple-A with his K% spiking to 30.3%, and putting up a 91 wRC+ in 22 games. The profile isn’t flawless, but he has a super fantasy friendly skillset, and he was a 21 year old in the upper minors, so further refinement is surely coming. He’s an elite prospect. 2023 Projection: 38/10/35/.236/.316/.421/12 Prime Projection: 89/26/88/.267/.341/.473/21

2) Jasson Dominguez NYY, OF, 20.2 – It felt like everyone was just waiting for Dominguez to fail, the ole build em up so we can tear em down, but Dominguez refused to blink. He’s now officially living up to the hype with a big 2022, slashing .273/.376/.461 with 16 homers, 37 steals, and a 24.2%/13.6% K%/BB% in 120 games mostly at Single-A and High-A. He actually performed better at High-A with a 146 wRC+ and 18.5% K%, and he even made it Double-A for 5 games and wasn’t overmatched with 1 homer, 1 steal, and a 5/3 K/BB (despite a .467 OPS). His tools are still big and back up the numbers with plus speed and plus power. If he keeps this up at Double-A as a 20 year old, he’ll be in the mix for #1 fantasy prospect in the game very quickly into 2023. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 88/28/93/.261/.345/.491/18

3) Oswald Peraza NYY, SS/2B, 22.10 – Like Volpe, Peraza started the year cold with a .583 OPS and 25.6% in his first 46 games at Triple-A before turning it around. He slashed .316/.382/.560 with 14 homers, 22 steals, and a 21.4% K% in his final 53 games at the level. He got called up to the majors in September and thrived, slashing .306/.404/.429 with 1 homer, 2 steals, and a 15.8%/10.5% K%/BB% in 57 PA. Statcast backs up the numbers with a well above average .343 xwOBA and 28.9 ft/sec sprint speed. The one red flag is his 81.6/84.0 MPH AVG/FB EV. That is quite low on 40 batted balls. It’s a small sample and he obviously has more power than that, but the power numbers he put up in the minors in 2021-22 could be misleading for what he will do in the majors. 2023 Projection: 58/14/59/.246/.303/.400/16 Prime Projection: 81/21/77/.269/.327/.441/22

4) Austin Wells NYY, C, 23.8 – The Yankees took their sweet old time getting Wells to Double-A, but he didn’t disappoint when he got there, maintaining his mature plate approach with a 23.5%/11.7% K%/BB%, hitting for power with 12 homers, and showing some base stealing skills too with 7 steals in 7 attempts over 55 games. He’s kept the ball off the ground his entire career, so he’s bound to do damage with the Yanks short porch. He’s also yet to play any position other than catcher, which could indicate the Yanks are dedicated to him behind the plate. He ranked 18th overall in my Top 65 Catchers: 2023 Deep Positional Dynasty Baseball Rankings on Patreon. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 77/24/79/.258/.336/.457/8

5) Spencer Jones NYY, OF, 21.11 – Selected 25th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft, the 6’7”, 225 pound Jones is the lefty version of Aaron Judge, even down to the fact they each hit “only” 12 homers in their draft year. It’s the hacky comp, but it’s also one that cuts through all the BS. He had some K issues in college with 64 K’s in 61 SEC games, and a high GB% kept the homers in check. His pro debut tamped down some of those concerns though as he played like a man amongst boys, slashing .344/.425/.538 with 4 homers, 12 steals, and a 18.9%/10.4% K%/BB% in 25 games at mostly Single-A. His power is huge enough to overcome a high GB% and he’s a good athlete with stolen base skills. He’ll get plenty of love in first year player drafts, but I suspect it won’t be enough. He’s currently 6th overall in my First Year Player Draft Rankings and is pushing Top 50 overall prospect status. Go after him. ETA: 2025 Prime Projection: 79/27/86/.248/.333/.480/9

6) Everson Pereira NYY, OF, 22.0 – Pereira was not able to maintain his insane power surge in 2021 (20 homers in 49 games), hitting 14 homers with a 49.5% GB% in 102 games split between High-A and Double-A. The strikeout rate remained high as well with a 26.8% K% at High-A and 30.1% K% at Double-A. A high strikeout rate with a high groundball rate is not the best combo, but he has the type of raw power and speed (21 steals) to make it work a la Randy Arozarena. He still put up a 120 wRC+ and 128 wRC+ at High-A and Double-A, respectively. It’s a high risk, high reward profile who has still has a wide range of outcomes despite being 21 years old with a taste of the upper minors. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 79/23/77/.251/.332/.447/15

7) Matt Sauer NYY, RHP, 24.2 – Sauer’s 4.54 ERA in 109 IP at High-A (88.1 IP) and Double-A (20.2 IP) is not indicative of how good he looked. He has no joke stuff with a plus mid 90’s fastball that moves, a plus slider, and a lesser used quality changeup. Here is he striking out 17 batters in his 3rd game at Double-A to give you an idea of the upside we are talking about. He had a 26.5%/9.3% K%/BB% at High-A and 37%/7.6% K%/BB% at Double-A. His control/command is below average and he has an injury history (he left his final start of the year with an undisclosed injury), so the bullpen risk is high, but he’s a no doubt target of mine in the later rounds of off-season prospect drafts, especially because New York traded so much of their pitching depth at the deadline. He could also be nasty out of the pen. 2023 Projection: 2/4.21/1.34/32 in 30 IP Prime Projection: 10/3.81/1.28/169 in 155 IP

8) Estiven Florial NYY, OF, 25.4 – Florial burst on the scene in 2017 as the ultimate high risk, high reward prospect, and 6 years later he remains that way, although neither the risk nor the reward are quite as high. He had a strong season at Triple-A with a 124 wRC+ in 101 games, but the 30.4% K% is still in the danger zone and his power has yet to fully breakout with 15 homers. He got some run in the majors and the K% spiked to 37.1% with a negative 7 wRC+ in 35 PA. He’s a plus defensive centerfielder, so it seems he will be used as a bench outfielder earlier in his career, with the hope he continues to grow into his considerable raw offensive talent as a later career breakout. 2023 Projection: 19/5/22/.222/.294/.389/7 Prime Projection: 73/18/61/.238/.311/.413/16

9) Trey Sweeney NYY, SS, 22.11 – Sweeney didn’t have a huge year, which would have been nice to see considering his competition in college wasn’t that strong in the Ohio Valley Conference, but it was still solid, slashing .240/.349/.413 with 16 homers, 31 steals, and a 23.2%/13.0 K%/BB% in 111 games split between High-A (100 games) and Double-A (11 games). He’s 6’4”, 200 pounds with a pretty viscous lefty swing, so there is more power in here to unlock, and he doesn’t have any major strikeout or groundball issues. He’s not that fast, so the stolen bases are likely a mirage, but it’s a good sign that he can contribute there. I’m very happy with my evaluation of him last off-season, as I liked him, but didn’t go crazy over him at 16th overall in my 2022 FYPD ranks. ETA: 2024 Prime Projection: 74/22/81/.253/.327/.448/7

10) Keiner Delgado NYY, 2B/3B, 19.3 – Delgado was an 18 year old in the DSL, and he’s only 5’8”, 145 pounds, but everything else looks so good I just couldn’t leave him off this list. He slashed .310/.504/.506 with 3 homers, 34 steals, and an 11.8%/24.4% K%/BB% in 52 games. He’s an excellent athlete who hits the ball hard and has a 47.7% FB%, so he’ll get the most out of his raw power. Jose Altuve is the dream outcome, but there are lesser outcomes that would still make him an impact fantasy player. ETA: 2026 Prime Projection: 81/15/66/.268/.339/.420/19

11) Brandon Mayea NYY, OF, 17.5 – Mayea is my #2 overall international prospect behind Felnin Celesten. He might not be physically imposing at 5’11”, 170 pounds, but he’s far from weak with the ball exploding off his bat in every video I’ve seen. He has a good feel to hit with an easy and athletic righty swing to go along with plus speed. He’s expected to sign for over $4 million. ETA: 2028 Prime Projection: 82/22/76/.275/.345/.458/15

Just Missed

12) Roderick Arias NYY, SS, 18.7

13) Will Warren NYY, RHP, 23.9

14) Andres Chaparro NYY, 3B, 23.11

15) Luis Serna NYY, RHP, 18.9

16) Randy Vasquez NYY, RHP, 24.5

17) Drew Thorpe NYY, LHP, 22.6 

18) Enmanuel Tejada NYY, SS, 18.3

19) Richard Fitts NYY, RHP, 23.4

Dynasty Baseball Thought/Strategy of the Day (which may or may not be related to the team I’m covering that day)

It can be so tempting to pay up for a career year, but it almost always ends up being an overpay. Just look at Salvador Perez this year vs. what he did in 2021. It’s not like they don’t have the ability to repeat, because they obviously just did it, it’s just that literally everything has to go right from luck to health and everything in between. A career year in a contract year is the scariest, because who knows what extra work the guy was willing to put in behind the scenes that he may be a bit more lax on after he scores a $500 million contract. I’m obviously talking about Aaron Judge here, but it applies to every veteran who just had the best year of their career. You are way better off looking for the guy who has the ability to put up that career season, but didn’t for whatever reason, rather than going after the guy who just did it.

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By Michael Halpern (@MichaelCHalpern)
Email: michaelhalpern@imaginarybrickwall.com
Twitter: Imaginary Brick Wall (@DynastyHalp)